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The Obama Administration’s Eﬀorts To Stabilize The Housing Market and Help American Homeowners February 2014 U.S. Department of Housing and UrbanUrban Development | U.S. Department of theand Research U.S Department of Housing and Development | Office of Policy Development Treasury The Administration’s goal remains to stabilize the housing market and provide security for homeowners. To meet these objectives in a challenging market, the Administration developed a broad approach implementing state and local housing agency initiatives, tax credits for homebuyers, neighborhood stabilization and community development programs, mortgage modiﬁcations and reﬁnancing, housing counseling, continued Federal Housing Administration (FHA) engagement, support for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac and increased consumer protections. In addition, Federal Reserve and Treasury MortgageBacked Securities purchase programs have helped to keep mortgage interest rates at record lows for more than a year. More detail on the Administration’s efforts can be found in the Appendix. February 2014 Scorecard on Administration’s Comprehensive Housing Initiative • Repossessions Are Down. A total of 30,226 U.S. properties were repossessed by lenders (Real Estate Owned, or REO) in January, down 40 percent from one year ago—to their lowest level since July 2007. Completed foreclosures were 4 percent below their December level. (Source: Realty Trac). • The Neighborhood Stabilization Program continues to help communities across all 50 states address foreclosed and abandoned homes. During the fourth quarter of 2013, grantees report cumulative completions of newly constructed or rehabilitated housing units under NSP topping 32,000 units, while direct assistance to homeowners reached the 10,800 mark, signaling strong progress toward achieving projected activity under the NSP1, NSP2, and NSP3 programs. • HARP Has Helped 3 Million Underwater Homeowners. As of November 2013, FHFA reports HARP (Home Affordable Reﬁnance Program) reached a signiﬁcant milestone by helping more than 3 million underwater homeowners reﬁnance their homes. Reﬁnance volume has continued to decrease, however, as mortgage rates rise. • The Administration’s foreclosure mitigation programs continue to provide relief for millions of homeowners. Over 1.9 million homeowner assistance actions have taken place through the Making Home Affordable Program, including more than 1.3 million permanent modiﬁcations through the Home Affordable Modiﬁcation Program (HAMP), while the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) has offered nearly 2.2 million loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions through January. The Administration’s programs continue to encourage improved standards and processes in the industry, with HOPE Now lenders offering families and individuals nearly 4.0 million proprietary modiﬁcations through December (data are reported with a 2-month lag). In all, more than 8.1 million mortgage modiﬁcation and other forms of mortgage assistance arrangements were completed between April 2009 and the end of January 2014. You can read Treasury’s MHA report here. The President’s housing market recovery efforts began immediately after taking ofﬁce in 2009. The February 2014 housing scorecard includes key indicators of market health and results of the Administration’s comprehensive response, as outlined above: • Homeowners’ Equity Continues to Grow. According to the Federal Reserve, homeowners’ equity is up nearly $412 billion, or 4.3 percent, in the fourth quarter of 2013, reaching $10.026 trillion--its highest level since the fourth quarter of 2007. Homeowners’ equity has risen sharply since the beginning of 2012, with equity up 60 percent, or more than $3.7 trillion, during this period. • New Home Purchases Increased. After declining for the last two months, purchases of new homes rose 9.6 percent to a seasonally adjusted annual rate (SAAR) of 468,000 in January--the highest unit-pace since mid-2008 and 2.2 percent above sales in January 2013. (Source: HUD and Census Bureau). • House Prices Are Stable. As of December 2013, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) purchase-only house price index rose 7.7 percent from last year and ticked up 0.8 percent (seasonally adjusted) from November. The FHFA seasonally adjusted purchase-only index for the U.S. shows that home values are on par with prices in mid-2005. The S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index for December posted returns of 13.4 percent over the past 12 months but was down 0.1 percent (not seasonally adjusted) from November. Prices, however, are typically weaker at this time of the year. The Case-Shiller index shows that home values are back to their mid-2004 levels. (The Case-Shiller and FHFA price indices are released with a 2-month lag.) The Administration’s recovery efforts continue to help millions of families deal with the worst economic crisis since the Great Depression. However, given the current state of the market and recognizing that recovery will take place over time, the Administration remains committed to its efforts to prevent avoidable foreclosures and stabilize the housing market. February 2014 National Scorecard | Page 1 U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development U.S. Department of the Treasury The Obama Administration’s Eﬀorts To Stabilize The Housing Market and Help American Homeowners | February 2014 February 2014 National Scorecard | Page 2 U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development U.S. Department of the Treasury The Obama Administration’s Eﬀorts To Stabilize The Housing Market and Help American Homeowners | February 2014 February 2014 National Scorecard | Page 3 U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development U.S. Department of the Treasury The Obama Administration’s Eﬀorts To Stabilize The Housing Market and Help American Homeowners | February 2014 February 2014 National Scorecard | Page 4 U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Office of Help American Homeowners The Obama Administration’s Eﬀorts To Stabilize The Housing Market andPolicy Development and Research | February 2014 Indicator HOUSING ASSISTANCE AND STABILIZATION PERFORMANCE METRICS This Period Last Period Cumulative From April 1, 2009 Latest Release Distressed Homeowners Assisted (thousands) HAMP Trial Modiﬁcations HAMP Permanent Modiﬁcations FHA Loss Mitigation Interventions HOPE Now Modiﬁcations HARP Reﬁnances 13.9 13.5 44.8 31.3 38.7 2,164 1,327 2,198 3,994 3,058 January-14 January-14 January-14 December-13 December-13 464.9 389.5 9,944 3rd Q 13 Borrower Annual Savings ($ millions) HAMP Active Trial Modiﬁcations HAMP Active Permanent Modiﬁcations All Reﬁnances ---- ---- 284 6,068 57,924 Activities Completed Under NSP (housing units) New Construction or Residential Rehab Demolition or Clearance Direct Homeownership Assistance ---- ---- 32,439 [62,270] 27,863 [23,995] 10,873 [17,106] 411.9 418.9 Counseled Borrowers (thousands) Change in Aggregate Home Equity ($ billions) 12.0 (s) 15.7 (s) 45.9 30.0 30.0 (r) (b,s) (b,s) (b,s) 3,941.0 (r) 4th Q 13 4th Q 13 4th Q 13 4th Q 13 4th Q 13 4th Q 13 4th Q 13 HOUSING MARKET FACT SHEET Indicator Mortgage Rates (30-Yr FRM, percent) This Period Last Period Year Ago As of Dec 2008 Latest Release 4.37 4.33 3.51 5.10 Housing Affordability (index) 168.1 170.9 (r) 204.4 162.9 December-13 Home Prices (indices) Case Shiller (NSA) FHFA (SA) CoreLogic - Excluding Distressed Sales (NSA) 165.7 208.4 167.4 165.8 206.7 166.3 (r) 146.1 193.5 152.4 150.5 196.6 159.9 December-13 December-13 January-14 Home Sales (thousands, SA) New Existing First Time Buyers Distressed Sales (percent, NSA) 39.0 385.0 161.1 15 35.6 405.8 167.7 19 38.2 405.8 168.7 24 31.4 334.2 149.9 32 January-14 January-14 January-14 December-13 Housing Supply Existing Homes for Sale (thousands, NSA) Existing Homes - Months’ Supply (months) New Homes for Sale (thousands, SA) New Homes for Sale - Months’ Supply (months, SA) Vacant Units Held Off Market (thousands) 1,900 4.9 184 4.7 3,757 1,860 4.6 184 5.2 3,675 1,770 4.4 149 3.9 3,746 3,130 9.4 353 11.2 3,542 January-14 January-14 January-14 January-14 4th Q 13 Mortgage Originations (thousands) Reﬁnance Originations Purchase Originations 784.4 640.4 1,017.6 891.6 (r) (r) 1,997.9 682.7 767.1 986.3 4th Q 13 4th Q 13 15.3 47.0 35.3 (r) (r) (r) 63.0 44.3 34.6 62.9 72.7 56.2 January-14 January-14 January-14 3.9 30.3 12.6 4.4 34.3 14.3 January-14 January-14 December-13 January-14 January-14 December-13 (p) (p) (r) (r) (r) (r) (r) FHA Originations (thousands) Reﬁnance Originations Purchase Originations Purchases by First Time Buyers 12.1 33.7 26.5 Mortgage Delinquency Rates (percent) Prime Subprime FHA 3.1 32.0 11.6 3.2 32.1 11.5 Seriously Delinquent Mortgages (thousands) Prime Subprime FHA 730 1,135 627 754 1,147 627 (r) (r) 1,105 1,499 740 915 1,632 333 Underwater Borrowers (thousands) 6,520 6,505 (r) 10,480 -- (p) (p) (p) 27-Feb-14 4th Q 13 Foreclosure Actions (thousands) Foreclosure Starts 57.3 52.1 64.8 148.6 January-14 Foreclosure Completions 30.2 31.6 50.5 78.9 January-14 Short Sales 11.9 (p) 18.0 (r) 32.4 14.0 December-13 REO Sales 32.3 (p) 39.9 (r) 47.1 74.8 December-13 SA = seasonally adjusted, NSA = not SA, p = preliminary, r = revised, b = brackets include units in process, s = see note Sources and Methodology page. February 2014 National Scorecard | Page 5 U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Office of Help American Homeowners The Obama Administration’s Eﬀorts To Stabilize The Housing Market andPolicy Development and Research | February 2014 SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY A. Items in Tables Description Distressed Homeowners Assisted HAMP Trial Modiﬁcations HAMP Permanent Modiﬁcations HARP Reﬁnances FHA Loss Mitigation Interventions HOPE Now Modiﬁcations Counseled Borrowers (thousands) Borrower Annual Savings HAMP Active Trial Modiﬁcations Frequency Sources Notes on Methodology Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly Treasury Treasury Federal Housing Finance Agency HUD Hope Now Alliance As reported. Also see additional note in Section C below on HAMP Tier 2. As reported. Also see additional note in Section C below on HAMP Tier 2. As reported. Also see additional note in Section C below on HARP. All FHA loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions. All proprietary modiﬁcations completed. Quarterly HUD Housing counseling activity reported by all HUD-approved housing counselors. HUD estimate of annualized savings based on Treasury reported active HAMP trial modiﬁcations and Freddie Mac monthly savings estimates. Also see additional note in Section C below on HAMP Tier 2. HUD estimate of annualized savings based on Treasury reported active HAMP permanent modiﬁcations and median monthly savings estimates. Also see additional note in Section C below on HAMP Tier 2. Reﬁnance originations (see below) multiplied by HUD estimate of annualized savings per reﬁnance. Quarterly HUD, Treasury, and Freddie Mac HAMP Active Permanent Modiﬁcations Quarterly HUD and Treasury All Reﬁnances Quarterly HUD, and MBA Quarterly HUD Quarterly HUD Direct Homeownership Assistance Change in Aggregate Home Equity Quarterly HUD Quarterly Federal Reserve Board Mortgage Rates (30-Yr FRM) Weekly Freddie Mac Primary Mortgage Market Survey, as reported for 30-Year ﬁxed rate mortgages (FRM). Housing Affordability Monthly National Association of Realtors® NAR’s composite housing affordability index as reported. A value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signiﬁes that a family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify. Home Prices Case-Shiller (NSA) Monthly Standard and Poor’s Monthly Monthly Federal Housing Finance Agency CoreLogic Case-Shiller 20-metro composite index, January 2000 = 100. Standard and Poor’s recommends use of not seasonally adjusted index when making monthly comparisons. FHFA monthly (purchaseonly) index for US, January 1991 = 100. CoreLogic national combined index, distressed sales excluded, January 2000 = 100. (Only available as NSA). Monthly HUD and Census Bureau Existing Monthly National Association of Realtors® First Time Buyers Monthly NAR, Census Bureau, and HUD Distressed Sales (NSA) Monthly CoreLogic Housing Supply Existing Homes for Sale (NSA) Existing Homes - Months’ Supply New Homes for Sale (SA) New Homes for Sale - Months’ Supply (SA) Vacant Units Held Off Market Monthly Monthly Monthly Monthly Quarterly National Association of Realtors National Association of Realtors HUD and Census Bureau HUD and Census Bureau Census Bureau As reported. As reported. As reported. As reported. As reported in Census CPS/HPS Table 4. Estimates of Housing Inventory, line item “Year-round vacant, held off market for reasons other than occasional use or usually reside elsewhere.” Vacant units can be held off the market for a variety of reasons. Mortgage Originations Reﬁnance Originations Quarterly Purchase Originations Quarterly Mortgage Bankers Association and HUD Mortgage Bankers Association and HUD HUD estimate of reﬁnance originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of reﬁnance originations. HUD estimate of home purchase originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of home purchase originations. Monthly Monthly Monthly HUD HUD HUD FHA originations reported as of date of loan closing. Estimate for current month scaled upward due to normal reporting lag and shown as preliminary. Monthly Monthly Monthly LPS Applied Analytics LPS Applied Analytics HUD Total mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by mortgages actively serviced. Total mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by mortgages actively serviced. Total FHA mortgages past due (30+ days) but not in foreclosure, divided by FHA’s insurance in force. Seriously Delinquent Mortgages Prime Subprime FHA Monthly Monthly Monthly LPS Applied Analytics, MBA, and HUD Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, scaled up to market. LPS Applied Analytics, MBA, and HUD Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure, scaled up to market. Mortgages 90+ days delinquent or in foreclosure. HUD Underwater Borrowers Quarterly CoreLogic As reported. Foreclosure Actions Foreclosure Starts Monthly Realty Trac Monthly Monthly Monthly Realty Trac CoreLogic CoreLogic Foreclosure starts are reported counts of notice of default or scheduled foreclosure auction, depending on which action starts the foreclosure process in a state. Real Estate Owned (REO). Count of Short Sales for the month as reported (current month subject to revision). Count of REO (Real Estate Owned) Sales for the month as reported (current month subject to revision). Completed Activities Under NSP (housing units) New Construction or Residential Rehab Demolition or Clearance FHFA (SA) CoreLogic - Excluding Distressed Sales (NSA) Home Sales (SA) New FHA Originations Reﬁnance Originations Purchase Originations Purchases by First Time Buyers Mortgage Delinquency Rates (NSA) Prime Subprime FHA Foreclosure Completions Short sales REO Sales Housing units constructed/rehabilitated using Neighborhood Stabilization Program. Bracketed numbers include units in process. Housing units demolished/cleared using Neighborhood Stabilization Program. Bracketed numbers as above. Completed downpayment assistance or non-amortizing second mortgages by grantee to make purchase of NSP unit affordable. Bracketed numbers as above. Difference in aggregate household owners’ equity in real estate as reported in the Federal Reserve Board’s Flow of Funds Accounts of the United States for stated time period. Seasonally adjusted annual rates divided by 12. A newly constructed house is considered sold when either a sales contract has been signed or a deposit accepted, even if this occurs before construction has actually started. Seasonally adjusted annual rates divided by 12. Existing-home sales, which include single-family, townhomes, condominiums and co-ops, are based on transaction closings. This differs from the U.S. Census Bureau’s series on new single-family home sales, which are based on contracts or the acceptance of a deposit. Sum of seasonally adjusted new and existing home sales (above) multiplied by National Association of Realtors ® annual estimate of ﬁrst time buyer share of existing home sales. Short sales and REO (Real Estate Owned) sales as a percent of total existing home sales (current month subject to revision). February 2014 National Scorecard | Page 6 U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Office of Help American Homeowners The Obama Administration’s Eﬀorts To Stabilize The Housing Market andPolicy Development and Research | February 2014 SOURCES AND METHODOLOGY B. Notes on Charts. 1. Monthly house price trends shown as changes in respective house price indices applied to a common base price set equal to the median price of an existing home sold in January 2003 as reported by the National Association of Realtors. Indices shown: S&P/Case Shiller 20-metro composite index (NSA), January 2000 = 100, FHFA monthly (purchase-only) index for US (SA), January 1991 = 100, and CoreLogic-Distressed Sales Excluded (Monthly) for US (NSA), January 2000 =100. 2. S&P/Case-Shiller 10-metro composite index (NSA) as reported monthly. Implied Case-Shiller futures index ﬁgures report forward expectations for the level of the S&P/Case Shiller index as of the date indicated, estimated from prices of futures purchased on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange reported by CME Group. The January 2009 market trend projection reports forward expectations estimated from prices of futures contracts reported by Radar Logic. Also see additional note in Section C below. 3. Reported seasonally adjusted annual rates for new and existing home sales divided by 12. 4. HUD estimate of reﬁnance originations based on MBA estimate of dollar volume of reﬁnance originations. 5. Cumulative HAMP permanent modiﬁcations started, FHA loss mitigation and early delinquency interventions, plus proprietary modiﬁcations completed as reported by HOPE Now Alliance. Some homeowners may be counted in more than one category. Foreclosure completions are properties entering Real Estate Owned (REO) as reported by Realty Trac. Also see additional note in Section C below on HAMP Tier 2. 6. Beginning with the September 2012 release, ﬁlings of a notice of default or scheduled foreclosure auction, depending on which action starts the foreclosure process in a state, are reported for foreclosure starts. Foreclosure defaults previously had been reported as a proxy for foreclosure starts. Foreclosure completions are properties entering REO. Both as reported by Realty Trac. 7. See “Borrower Annual Savings” above. 8. FHA market shares as FHA purchase and reﬁnance originations divided by HUD estimates of purchase and reﬁnance mortgage originations as noted in “Mortgage Originations” above. See additional note below on FHA market share. C. Additional Notes. Beginning with the February 2013 release, the House Price Expectations Chart was updated by replacing market expectations as they existed in January 2009 with expectations as of December 2011. Prices of futures purchased for the S&P/Case-Shiller 10-metro composite index, available on the web from CME Group, were used to estimate expectations for December 2011 and for the current month. Market trend as of January 2009 is estimated from percentage changes in house price futures based on a different house price index: RadarLogic RPX. This trend has been added back to the chart because it imparts important information on how house price expectations have changed over time. The Q1 2013 NSP actual count was revised for the demolition or clearance category. Beginning with the January 2013 release, mortgage aid under HAMP Tier 2 is included in the totals. Effective June 2012, HAMP Tier 2 expanded eligibility requirements to further reduce foreclosures and help stabilize neighborhoods. For non-GSE loans, eligibility was expanded to allow for more ﬂexible debt-toincome criteria and to include properties currently occupied by a tenant, as well as vacant properties which a borrower intends to rent. FHA market share estimates have been revised from Q1 2011 to Q4 2012 based on new methodology and estimates of FHA Market Share for Q1 through Q3 2013 are also reported for the ﬁrst time. See the Q2 2013 FHA Market Share report on the FHA Market Share website for an explanation of the new methodology: http://portal.hud.gov/hudportal/HUD?src=/program_ofﬁces/housing/rmra/oe/rpts/fhamktsh/fhamktqtrly. February 2014 National Scorecard | Page 7 U.S Department of Housing and Urban Development U.S. Department of the Treasury U.S. Department of Housing and Urban Development | Office of Help American Homeowners The Obama Administration’s Eﬀorts To Stabilize The Housing Market andPolicy Development and Research | February 2014 Appendix The Administration has taken a broad set of actions to stabilize the housing market and help American homeowners. Three years ago, stress in the ﬁnancial system had severely reduced the supply of mortgage credit, limiting the ability of Americans to buy homes or reﬁnance mortgages. Millions of responsible families who had made their monthly payments and had fulﬁlled their obligations saw their property values fall. They also found themselves unable to reﬁnance at lower mortgage rates. In February 2009, less than one month after taking ofﬁce, President Obama announced the Homeowner Affordability and Stability Plan. As part of this plan and through other housing initiatives, the Administration has taken the following actions to strengthen the housing market: • Supported Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac to ensure continued access to affordable mortgage credit; • The Federal Reserve and the U.S. Treasury purchased more than $1.4 trillion in agency mortgage backed securities through independent MBS purchase programs, helping to keep mortgage rates at historic lows; • Launched a modiﬁcation initiative to help homeowners reduce mortgage payments to affordable levels and to prevent avoidable foreclosures; • Launched a $23.5 billion Housing Finance Agencies Initiative to increase sustainable homeownership and rental resources; • Supported the First Time Homebuyer Tax Credit, which helped more than 2.5 million American families purchase homes; • Provided more than $5 billion in support for affordable rental housing through low income housing tax credit programs and $6.92 billion in support for the Neighborhood Stabilization Program to restore neighborhoods hardest hit by the concentrated foreclosures; • Created the $7.6 billion HFA Hardest Hit Fund for innovative foreclosure prevention programs in the nation’s hardest hit housing markets; • Launched the $1 billion Emergency Homeowners Loan Program, as part of the DoddFrank Wall Street Reform and Consumer Protection Act, to help unemployed and underemployed homeowners pay a portion of their monthly mortgage. • Created an FHA Short Reﬁnance Option that helps underwater borrowers reﬁnance into a new, stable, FHA-insured mortgage that is more aligned with actual property values. • Supported home purchase and reﬁnance activity through the FHA to provide access to affordable mortgage capital and help homeowners prevent foreclosures. • Implemented a series of changes to the Home Affordable Reﬁnance Program (HARP) in an effort to attract more eligible borrowers who can beneﬁt from reﬁnancing their home mortgages during this time of historically low mortgage rates. ### February 2014 National Scorecard | Page 8