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8

SUKVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS

aid plans would prevent or at least mitigate the sharp drop
in exports which had been expected as the result of the rapid
depletion of foreign purchasing power was a major factor
improving near-term business expectations. These in turn
were reflected in more liberal buying of goods with the
result that inventories rose at an accelerated rate. Wage
increases contributed to the summer's developments by
increasing costs of production as well as by adding to consumer purchasing power. High farm income, largely a consequence of higher prices, in turn contributed to the maintenance of demand. The redemption of the veterans' terminal
leave bonds in September also gave a fillip to personal incomes toward the end of the quarter. With domestic
demand strong and a continued heavy export demand
expected, the reduction in the corn crop constituted a
further strong incentive for price rise.
Main Developments Summarized
The main developments in expenditures for gross national
product and in the shares of income which reflect the tendencies discussed above can be summarized as follows:
1. Total demand for domestic business investment increased moderately from 29 billion dollars to 30 billion
at annual rates between the second and third quarters.
Purchases of producers' durable equipment, whose rise had
been progressively tapering off, continued at the high level
reached in the second quarter. New private construction
activity moved upward, mainly in the nonfarm residential
component. The activity figures do not yet reflect fully the
pronounced increase in residential starts which followed after
the hesitation of winter and spring. Inventory accumulation
which had dropped sharply by the end of the second quarter
was resumed and rose to substantial levels by the end of the
third. The resumption of inventory buying, like the previous
slackening, occurred mainly in nondurable goods. Durable
goods' inventories continued to be accumulated throughout
the year.
2. Approximately offsetting the increase in domestic investment, net foreign purchases of American goods and services dropped from the second quarter high of 10.5 billion
to an annual rate of 7.7 billion dollars in the third quarter.
The drop was due mainly to the depletion of the dollar and
gold holdings of foreign nations which was referred to in the
analysis of the second quarter national product figures in the
August issue and discussed in greater detail in the quarterly
reviews of the balance of payments. About 2 billion of the
decline reflected a decrease in foreign purchases of the output
of American business. The remaining billion was due to
smaller Government sales of surplus property abroad, and is
offset by a corresponding increase in Federal purchases of
goods and services which are reported on a net basis.
3. Consumer purchases increased by 4 billions at annual
rates between the second and third quarters. The increase
that occurred in durable goods reflected to a large extent a
spontaneous increase in response to more ample supplies of
scarce items, and was an independent factor in maintaining
economic activity. Other increases, however, are largely
explained by the movement of disposable income (see below)
and also by increased prices, which consumers were willing
to pay rather than to curtail correspondingly their real
consumption.
4. Government purchases increased slightly between the
second and third quarters reflecting a moderate expansion of
State and local expenditures. Gross Federal purchases
declined moderately.




November 1947

Table 1.—National Income and Product, First Three Quarters of
1947
[Billions of dollars]
Seasonally adjusted,
at annual rates

Unadjusted
1

II

III

48.9
30.9
29.5
24.9
1.2
3.4
1.4
11.8
5.6
4.4

50.2
31.7
30.3
25.8
1.0
3.4
1.4
11.8
5.5
4.5

P)
32.3
31.1
27.1
1.0
3.0
1.2
11.8
5.5
4.5

197. 6
124.9
119.4
101.5
4.6
13.3
5.4
47.0
22.4
17.6

200.1
126. 3
120.9
103.5
4.1
13.2
5.5
47.2
21.9
18.0

0)
129.7
124.7
107.3
3.9
13.4
5.0
47.3
22.1
17.9

5.5 5.8 (0
7.1 6.9 0)
2.9 2.7 0)
4.3 4.2 0)
-1.7 -1.0 -1.1
.8
.8
.8

22.4
29.0
11.6
17.4
-6.6
3.3

23.3
27.4
10.8
16.6
-4.1
3.3

(0
0)
0)
0)
-4.5
3.4

3.7

17.6

17.0

16.4

54 3 56.5 56.7
37.4 40.2 39.9
4.2 4.7 4.6
22.2 24.3 23.8
11.0 11.2 li;5
7.9 6.6 8.1
2.1 2.4 3.0
.9 1.0 1.4
1.3 1.3 1.6
4.1 4.5 4.5
1.7 -.3
.6
2.1 2.6 1.9
6.9 7.0 6.8
4.6 4.4 4.2
.6
.5
.2
2.9 3.1 2.9

223. 1
158.0
18.5
95.3
44.2
29.4
10.3
4.4
5.8
16.5
2.7
8.3
27.4
18.2
2.2
11.4

229.1 232.3
162.0 166.0
19.2
19.9
97.8 100.0
45.0 46.1
29.1 30.4
10.4
9.6
4.1
4.8
5.5
5.6
18.0
18.0
1.5
2.0
10.5
7.7
28.2
27.5
17.4
16.7
.9
1.8
11.9
12.5

Personal income
47.1 48.2 49.7
8.7 4.0 4.6
Less: Personal tax and nontax payments
Federal
8.1 3.5 4.2
.4
.5
State and local
.5
38.4 44.2 45.0
Equals: Disposable personal income
Less: Personal-consumption expenditures . ... 37.4 40.2 39.9
Equals: Personal saving
1.0 3.9 5.2

190.9
21.2
19.4
1.7
169.7
158.0
11.7

192.3
21 A
19.6
1.8
170.9
162.0
8.9

223.1
11.9
17.2
.5
-4.2

229.1
12.1
17.3
.5
-.7

I

II

III

NATIONAL INCOME BY DISTRIBUTIVE SHARES

National income-.
Compensation of employees
Wages and salaries
Private
Military
. _
Government civilian
_
Supplements to wages and salaries
Proprietors' and rental income 2
_
Business and professional
Farm
Rental in come of persons.
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment. ._Corporate profits before tax
Corporate-profits tax liability- _ _ Corporate profits after tax..
..
Inventory valuation adjustment
Netinterest.. .....
Addendum: Compensation of general government employees

4.5

4.4

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT OR EXPENDITURE

Gross national product
Personal consumption expenditures
...
Durable goodsNondurable goods
Services
Gross private domestic investment
New construction
Residential nonfarm.. .
Other
Producers' durable equipment
Change in business inventories
Net foreign investment
Government purchases of goods and services. _
Federal
Less: Government sales
State and local
DISPOSITION OF PERSONAL INCOME

200.4
21.7
19.9
1.9
178.7
166.0
12.7

RELATION OF GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT,
NATIONAL INCOME, AND PERSONAL INCOME

Gross national product .
Less* Capital-consumption allowances
Indirect business tax and nontax liability
Business transfer pavments
Statistical discrepancy
Plus: Subsidies less current surplus of government enterprises
Equals' National income
Less: Corporate profits and inventory-valuation
adjustment
Contributions for social insurance
Excess of wage accruals over disbursements..
Plus: Government transfer payments
Net interest paid by government ._. _. . .
Dividends
Business transfer pavments
Equals: Personal income

54.3 56.5 56.7
3.0 3.0 3.1
4.2 4.3 4.5
.1
.1
.1
-2.0 -1.1
0)
-.0
0)

-.2
197.6

232.3
12.2
17.6
.5
C1)
2 -.1
200! 1 (0

5.5 5.8 (0
1.5 1.5 1.3
.0
.0
.0
2.6 2.5 3.3
1.1 1.3 1.0
1.4 1.6 1.5
.1
.1
.1
47.1 48.2 49.7

22.4
5.9
.0
10.4
4.5
6.2
.5
190.9

23.3
5.9
.0
10.1
4.5
6.3
.5
192.3

-.0
48.9

.0
50.2

C1)
5.2
.0
13.7
4.6
6.5
.5
200.4

1 Not available.
2
Includes noncorporate inventory-valuation adjustment.
Source: U. S. Department of Commerce, Office of Business Economics.

5. Owing to the absence of information on corporate
profits, complete data on national income in the third quarter
are not yet available. But it is clear that the outstanding
change was the rise in private pay rolls, due to a large extent
to wage-rate increases which took effect in the third quarter
or whose full effect was reflected in the third quarter for the
first time. Comprehensive data on hourly earnings covering
all private pay rolls are not available, but information on
pay rolls accounting for two-thirds of the total, and including
manufacturing, mining, construction, trade, and the railroads
indicates that 75 percent of the third quarter increase in pay

SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS

November 1947

&-1

Monthly Business Statistics
The data here are a continuation of the statistics published in the 1942 Supplement to the SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS. That volume
contains monthly data for the years 1938 to 1941, and monthly averages for earlier years back to 1913 insofar as available; it also provides a
description of each series and references to sources of monthly figures prior to 1938. Series added or revised since publication of the 1942 Supplement are indicated by an asterisk (*) and a dagger (f), respectively, the accompanying footnote indicating where historical data and a descriptive
note may be found. The terms "unadjusted" and "adjusted" used to designate index numbers refer to adjustment of monthly figures for seasonal
variation.
Data subsequent to September for selected series will be found in the Weekly Supplement to the Survey.
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through
1941 and descriptive notes may be found
in the 1942 Supplement to the Survey

19 46

September

October

1947

November

December

January

February

March

May

April

June

July

August

September

GENERAL BUSINESS INDICATORS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT *
Seasonally adjusted quarterly totals at annual rates:
National income
bil of dol
Compensation of employees
_ . _ _ _.do _
Wages and salaries
do
Private
do
Military
do
Government civilian
do
Supplements to wages and salaries
do
Proprietors' and rental income
do
Business and professional
do
Farm
do
Rental income of persons.
__do. _.
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment
bil. of dol
Corporate profits before tax
do
Corporate profits tax liability
do
Corporate profits after tax
do
Inventory valuation adjustment
do
Net interest
do
Gross national product
do
Personal consumption expenditures
do
Durable coods
do
Nondurable goods
do
Services
do
Gross private domestic investment
do
New construction
do
Producers' durable equipment
do
Change in business inventories
do
Net foreign investment
do
Government purchases of goods and services
bil. of dol
Federal (less Government sales)
do
State and local
do
Personal income
do
Less: Personal tax and nontax payments do
Equals: Disposable personal income
do .
Personal savings §_ .
do

179 9
119.2
113.6
93.8
6.7
13. 2
5. 5
41.9
19.9
15. 2
6.8

191 0
122.2
117. 1
98 0
5.6
13 5
5. 1
46 7
22.0
17 8
7.0

197 6
124.9
119 4
101 5
4 6
13 3
5 4
47 0
22 4
17 6
7.0

15.6
22.9
9.3
13.5
-7.3
3.2
207.5
147.3
16.2
88.9
42.1
27.0
8.9
13.2
4.9
4.5

18.8
27 1
11.0
16 1
-8.3
3 2
218.6
154. 9
18.2
93.6
43.1
30.4
9.3
15.7
5.4
5.2

22.4
29 0
11.6
17 4
—6 6
3 3
223 1

23 3
27 4
10 8
16 6
—4 1
3 3
229 1

28.6
18.2
10.4
179.5
19.1
160.4
13.1

28.2
16.9
11.2
187.5
19.5
168.0
13.1

(i)

r 200 1

r

129.7
124.7
107 3

•• 1 26. 3
' 120. 9
' 103 5

3.9

4 1
»• 13 2

13 4

r
47 2
f 21.9
18 0

47 3
22.1
17 9

5.5

5.0

7.2

r

r 158 0

7.3

•

r 162 0

r

r

18 5
r 95 3
r 44 2
r
29 4
10 3
r
16 5
2 7
T
8 3

19 2
r 97 8
r 45 o
r
29 1
r
96
T
18 0
1 5
r
10 5

T
T
r

r

27.4
16 0
11 4
190 9
r
21 2
r
169. 7
T
11 7

27 5
T 15 g
11 9
T 192 3
* 21 4
T
170 9
r
89

(i)
(i)
(i)
(i)
C1)

34
232 3
166 0
19 9
100 0
46 1
30 4
10 4
18 0
2 0
7 7
28 2
15 8
12 5
200 4
21 7
178.7
12 7

r

PERSONAL INCOME*
Seasonally adjusted, at annual rates:
Total personal income
bil. of dol..
Wage and salary receipts, total
...do
Total employer disbursements
do
Commodity-producing industries
do
Distributive industries
... _do
Service industries
do
Government-. _ _ _
_ _ _ _ _
do
Less employee contributions for social insurance
bil. of dol
Other labor income _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ . d o
Proprietors' and rental income
do
Personal interest income and dividends^do_ .
Total transfer pavments. _ _ __
.do
Total nonagricultural income
do

178.5
113.0
114.8
49.4
31.8
14. 1
19.5

184.0
113.6
115.4
49.5
32.0
14.2
19.7

188.4
115.4
117.2
50.6
33.0
14.4
19.2

189.9
117.0
118.8
52.3
33.5
14 4
18.6

190.3
117.1
119.2
53.1
33.5
14 6
18.0

190. 7
117.5
119 6
53.2
33.7
14 6
18. 1

191.8
117 5
119 6
53 7
33 7
14 6
17 6

190.2
116 7
118 9
53 2
33 4
14 8
17 5

191.5
118.3
120 4
54 1
34.2
14 9
17 2

195.1
121 1
123 2
55 5
35 3
15 2
17 2

196.1
121 2

123 3
55 1
35 5
15 4
17 3

r 124 6

1.8
1.6
39.5
13.3
11.1
162.0

1.8
1.6
45.3
13.3
10.2
162.7

1.8
1.6
47.6
13.5
10.3
165.6

1.8
1.6
47.2
13.7
10.4
167.3

2. 1
1.6
46.6
13.9
11.1
168.2

21
1.7
46 8
14.0
10.7
168 5

2 1
17
47 7
14 0
10 9
168 8

2
1
46
14
10
167

21
18
46 9
14.0
10 5
169 2

21
18
47 6
14 1
10 5
171 9

21
18
47 8
14 2
11 1
172 3

2 i
18
r 45 9
r 14 3

2
7
9
0
9
8

r 194. 9
r 122 5
r 56 2

35 7
15 3
r 17 4

r 10 4
r 173 1

210.3
124 3
126 3
57 4
36 2
15 2
17 5
20
18
48 2
14 8
21 2
187 5

NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
EXPENDITURES*
All industries, total
mil. of dol
Electric and gas utilities
._ . __
..do
Manufacturing and mining
do___
Railroad
.
. _do
Commercial and miscellaneous
do

3,310
280
1,810
160
1,070

3, 730
360
1,920
180
1,280

3 160

3 940

4 070

1 600

2,010

2 010

1 080

1,260

1 250

330

450

510

220

160

290

FARM INCOME AND MARKETINGS
Cash farm income, total, including Government
pavments*
mil of dol
Prom marketings and C. C. C. loans*
do
Crops*
_ _
do
Livestock and products*
. .
.do
Dairy products*
do
Meat animals* _ _ _ _ _ _
_
.do
Poultry and eggs*
do _

2, 123
2,110
1,211
899
342
302
236

3 401
3,386
1,862
1,524
343
875
288

of 1947 estimates are] based on anticipated capital expenditures of business,
regarding earlier data.




2 999
2,986
1,450
1,536
315
933
274

2 438
2,420
999
1,421
317
829
266

2 284
2,248
918
1,330
330
807
187

1 897
1,853
707
1,146
292
667
181

2 076
2,010
692
1 318

345
743
224

1 974
1,914
594
1 320

345
726
236

2 026
1,989
621
1 368

379
705
261

2 211
2,185
743
1 442

392
782
234

2 662
2, 657
1 205
1 452

382
785
251

2 510
2,505
1 187
1 318
353
711
232

•p o 054
3,049
1 497
1 552
334
958
944

for January 1945-May 1946 for farm income are available on request; see note in September 1947 Survey


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102