View original document

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

SURVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS

6
contrast to the usual sharp seasonal
rise. With the coming of spring, sales
rose more than seasonally and the
higher levels continued into the second
quarter. Stocks declined slightly but
somewhat less than expected in this
period of the year. In spite of the
second quarter improvement, automobile sales and production were substantially below a year ago.
Support from Government

The bulk of the second quarter
increase in GNP came in private
expenditures, but the role of the Federal
Government in stimulating business
activity was important. In addition
to the $2 billion annual rate increase in
direct purchases of goods and services,
the Federal Government instituted
several programs swelling the flow of
income in the economy, notably the
feed grain and the temporary unemployment insurance programs. Measures affecting the supply of money and
credit designed to stimulate economic
activity will be noted later.

Consumption expenditures up

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT

Personal consumption expenditures,
which had turned down in the opening
quarter of the year with the decline in
auto and other durable goods purchases, moved up in the second quarter.
The $5K billion increase to an annual
rate of $336 billion was concentrated in
expenditures for automobiles and services. (See chart.) Sales of durable
goods other than autos—mainly furniture and appliances—showed only modest increases which were not enough to
bring them back to the highs of late
1959.
Small changes were the rule for all
the major categories of nondurable
goods. Spending for food and beverages, which was up only slightly in
current dollars, went up more in real
terms as retail food prices—principally
of meat and dairy products—declined
from their first quarter average.
The inventory swing from the first to
the second quarter featured changes in
stocks of automobile producers and

19 61

1960
III

IV

I

II

II

1961

1960

1958 1959 1960

III

IV

I

II

Billions of 1954 dollars

Billions of current dollars
Gross national product

444.5 482.8 504.4 506.4 505.1 504.5 500.8 516.1 401.3 428.4 440.8 443.4 440.2 438.4 433.2 445.5

Personal consumption expenditures
293. 2 314.0 328.9 329.9 329.7 332. 3 330.7 336.1 273.2 289.3 298.3 299. 5 298.6 299.6 297.0 301. 6
Durable goods _
Nondurable goods
Services

37.3 43.5 44.3 45.3 43.4 43.8 39.4 42.0 35.5 41.0 41.8 42.5 40.8 41.6 37.6 39.8
141.6 147.3 152.4 153.3 152.7 153.1 153.7 154.1 133. 3 138.8 141.8 142. 9 142.0 141.3 141.6 142. 6
114.3 123.2 132.2 131.2 133.6 135.4 137. 5 139.9 104.4 109.5 114.7 114.2 115.8 116.6 117.8 119.2

Gross private domestic investment- __ _
New construction

56.6 72.4 72.4 74.6 70.5 65.6 59.8 68.8 49.0 61.1 60.6 62.3 58.6 54.9 49.6 57.3
35.5 40.2 40.7 40.7 40.4 40.7 39.6 41.3 31.1 34.3 33.9 33.9 33. 6 33.9 32.9 34.1

Residential rionfarm
Other

18.0 22.3 21.1 21.2 21.0 20.5 19 3 20.6 16.2 19.4 18 0 18 1 17.9 17 5 16 5 17 6
17.4 17.9 19.6 19.5 19.4 20.2 20.4 20.7 14.8 14.8 16.0 15.9 15.7 16.4 16.4 16.6

Producers' durable equipment. 23.1 25.9 27.5 28.6 27.7 26.7 24.2 24.7 19.4 21.3 22.7 23.4 22.7 22.1 19.9 20.3
Change in business inventories. -2.0
Nonfarm
Farm

_
..

Net exports of goods and services.
Exports
Imports

_

Federal..

_

National defense
Other
. . ..
Less: Government sales
State and local




105

100

95
Expenditures

90
Receipts

85

80

75
National Income Basis

j
Business
*

2.4 -1.9 -4.0

2.8 -1.5

5.5

4.0

4.9

2.3 -1.1 -3.2

2.9

5.1
.3

2.0 -2.2 -4.3
.4
.3
.3

2.4 -2.4 5.6
.4
.8 -.0

3.8
.2

4.7
_ 2

2.0 -1.3 -3.5
.3
.2
.3

1.2 -.7

3.0

2.3

3.0

3.9 -.2 -2.1

1.7

1.0

1.6

"i
1.9

93.5 97.1 100.1 99.6 101.9 101.6 105.0 107.3 79.3 80.1 80.2 80.6 81.3 80.3 83.3 84.7
52.6 53.5 52.9 52.9 54.0 53.0 54.7 56.6 44.5 43.9 42.3 42.7 42.9 41.6 43.1 44.7
44.8 46.2 45.5 45.5 45.4 45.7 47.2 48.8
8.3 7.8 8.0 7.9 9.1 7.9 8.0 8.3
.5
.6
.6
.6
.5
.6
.5
.5

.....

40.8 43.6 47.2 46.8 48.0 48.6 50.3 50.6 34.8 36.2 38.0 37.8 38.4 38.7 40.2 40.0

61-8-7

fixed investment stable

The second quarter increase in fixed
investment expenditures by business
1
\
was minor in total, and individual
industry changes were likewise small.
1
The latest OBE-SEC survey of capital
1
spending plans indicates a modest
S
pickup in the second half of the year.
Largely because of the presence of
excess capacity, businessmen are usually
€
I
reluctant to expand fixed capital out1
lays in the early stages of recovery.
r
Thus, business fixed investment con.
tinued to decline in the initial phase of
t
the 1958 upturn and was stable during
j
1954 after total production had started
to rise.

5.4

3.3

1962

distributors; these accounted for the
bulk of the inventory liquidation in the
first quarter and for about one-fourth
of the buildup in the second. The
second quarter increase in nonautomotive stocks centered in trade. ManI
ufacturers' stocks outside of the automotive industry were reduced somewhat
I
a a continued liquidation in the stocks
as
of durable goods' producers was only
L
partly offset by accumulation in non1
C
durable goods lines.

4.0
.3

3.5

1958 1959 1960 1961

U. S. Deportment of Commerce, Office of Business Economics

4.2

5.3

, , , | i i i I i ,

Quarterly Totals, Seasonally Adjusted, at Annual Rates

6.2
.1

5.1

I

70

6.3

-2.9
.9

22.7 23.1 26.7 26.7 26.8 27.6 27.6 26.4 21.4 22.2 25.3 25.4 25.4 26.1 25.7 24.5
21.5 23.8 23.6 24.4 23.8 22.4 22.3 22.5 21.6 24.3 23.6 24.4 23.7 22.6 22.4 22.6

Government purchases of goods
and services

Billion $

1957

[Seasonally adjusted, at annual rates]

II

Expenditures Exceed Receipts in First Half
Of 1961

Swing in inventories

Table 1.—-Gross National Product in Current and Constant Dollars (1-3, 1-5)

1958 1959 1960

August 1961

BUSINESS STATISTICS
J. HE STATISTICS here are a continuation of the data published in the 1959 edition of BUSINESS STATISTICS, biennial Statistical Supplement
to the SURVEY OP CURRENT BUSINESS. That volume (price $2.25) contains monthly (or quarterly) data for the years 1955 through 1958 and
monthly averages for all years back to 1929 insofar as available; it also provides a description of each series and references to sources of monthly
figures prior to 1955. Series added or significantly revised since publication of the 1959 BUSINESS STATISTICS are indicated by an asterisk (*) and a
dagger (t), respectively; certain revisions for 1958 issued too late for inclusion in the aforementioned volume appear in the monthly SURVEY
beginning with the July 1959 issue. Except as otherwise stated, the terms "unadjusted" and "adjusted" refer to adjustment for seasonal
variation.
Statistics originating in Government agencies are not copyrighted and may be reprinted freely. Data from private sources are provided
through the courtesy of the compilers, and are subject to their copyrights.
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1958 and
descriptive notes are shown in the 1959 edition of
BUSINESS STATISTICS

1961

1960

June

July

August Septem- October Novem- December
ber
ber

January

February

March

April

May

July

June

GENERAL BUSINESS INDICATORS
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT f
Seasonally adjusted quarterly totals at annual rates: t
National income, total
_bil. ofdol.-

419.2

419.0

416.5

412.2

294.6
272.4
224.6
9.8
38.0
22.2

296.0
273.2
224.2
9.9
39.1
22.7

294 0
271.3
221 6
10.0
39.7
22.7

292 6
270.1
219 7
10.1
40.3
22.5

48.6
36.4
12.3
11.7

48.7
36.3
12.4
11.7

49.0
36.3
12.7
11 7

48.9
36.0
12 9
11 5

45.9
46.3
23.0
23.3

44.1
43.2
21.4
21.7

42.9
42.6
21.1
21.4
.3

40.0
39.6
19.6
20.0
.4

do

18.3

18.6

18.9

19.2

19 6

do

Compensation of employees, total _
Wages and salaries, total
Private
Military
Government civilian
Supplements to wages and salaries

506.4

505.1

504.5

500.8

516.1

329.9
45.3
153.3
131.2

329.7
43.4
152.7
133.6

332 3
43.8
153 1
135 4

330
39
153
137

336 1
42 o
154 1
139 9

74.6
40.7
28.6

70.5
40.4
27.7

65.6
40.7
26 7
1.9

59.8
39 6
24 2
40

68
41
24
2

-do
___do
___do
do
do
_.do_ _

Proprietors' income, totaled
--do
Business and professional cf
-do_..
Farm
_
do
Rental income of persons
do
Corporate profits and inventory valuation adjustment, total
_
bil. ofdol—
Corporate profits before tax, total
_. -do . .
Corporate profits tax liability
-do
Corporate profits after tax
__do - _
Inventory valuation adjustment
do
Net interest.
Gross national product, total
Personal consumption expenditures, total
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services

do. _.
-do
do
-do

Gross private domestic investment, total
New construction ...
Producers' durable equipment
Change in business inventories

do
do
-do
do

Net exports of goods and services
do
Exports
do
Imports. -_ _ _ _ _
do --_
Government purchases of goods and services, total
bil. ofdolFederal (less Government sales)
_do _„
National defense 9
_ _do_ __
State and local
do

-.4

.9

5.4

2.4

2.3

7
4
7
5

300
277
226
10
41
22

2
3
0
1
2
9

49 2
36 3
12 9
115

8
3
7
8

26.7
24.4

26.8
23.8

3.0

5.1
27 6
22.4

53
27 6
22 3

39
26 4
22 5

99.6
52.9
45.5
46.8

101.9
54.0

101.6
53 0
45 7
48.6

105. 0
54 7
47 2
50.3

107 3
56 6
48 8
50.6

403.1
50.5
352.7

405.1
50.8
354.4

405 4
50 5
354.9

413 2
51 4
361.8

24.6

22 7

404 7
50 3
354.3
23 7

Personal income, total
Less: Personal tax and nontax payments
Equals: Disposable personal income

do
do_. .
do

Personal saving§

do

22.8

bil. ofdol--

443.4

45. 4
48.0

—

-

25 g

GNP in constant (1954) dollars
Gross national product, total

Personal consumption expenditures, total
Durable goods
Nondurable goods
Services

do
do
do
do ...

Gross private domestic investment, total
New construction
Producers' durable equipment.
Change in business inventories

do
do
do
do

Net exports of goods and services.

440.2

438.4

433.2

445.5

299.5
42.5
142.9
114.2

298 6
40.8
142.0
115.8

299 6
41.6
141.3
116.6

297 o
37.6
141.6
117.8

301 6
39 8
142.6
119.2

62.3
33.9
23.4

58.6
33 6
22.7
2.3

54 9
33 9
22 1
-1.1

49 6
32 9
19 9
-3.2

57 3
34 1
20 3
2.9

--

-

do

4.9

1.0
1.6
3.3
3.5
1.9
Government purchases of goods and services, total
80.6
bil. ofdol. .
81.3
80.3
84.7
83.3
Federal
do
42.7
42 9
41 6
44 7
43 1
State and local
do
37.8
38.4
38.7
40.2
40.0
f Revised.
t Revised series. Estimates of national income and product and personal inco: have been revised back to 1957; revisions prior to the 2d quarter 1960 (and prior to May 1960
>me
for personal income) appear on p. 6 ff. of the July 1961 SURVEY.
c?Includes inventory valuation adjustment.
. ..
.
tion adjustment.
9 Government sales are not deducted.
v
rf
§Personal saving is excess of disposable income over personal consumption expenditures shown as a component of gross national product above.

001431°—61


S-l

SUEVEY OF CURRENT BUSINESS

S-2
Unless otherwise stated, statistics through 1958 and
descriptive notes are shown in the 1959 edition of
BUSINESS STATISTICS

August 1961
1961

1960

June

July

August Septem- October Novem- December
ber
ber

January

February

March

April

May

June

July

GENERAL BUSINESS INDICATORS—Continued
PERSONAL INCOME, BY SOURCE!
Seasonally adjusted, at annual rates: $
Total personal income

bil. of doL

Wage and salary disbursements, total
do _
Commodity-producing industries, total — do
Manufacturing only
do _ _
Distributive industries
do
Service industries
do
Government
- do
Other labor income
- do
Proprietors' income:
Business and professional
do
Farm
- do_ _ _
Rental income of persons
Dividends
Personal interest income.
Transfer payments
Less personal contributions for social insur
Total nonagricultural income

do
do
do __
do
do _ .
do

1 405. 5

1

419.

2

404.4

404.7

405.2

405.5

406.4

406.0

404.0

403.6

403.1

407.3

409.8

413.2

r

417. 3

421 8

273.2
111.7

273. 6
111.3
88.0
72.6
41.1
48.6
10.9

273.2

273.0

272.9

269.6

269.5

271.1
106.5
84.1
71.8
42.1
50.7
10.6

277.2

r

105.6
83.5
71.8
41.7
50.4
10.7

274.6

280. 7

88.6
72.6
40.9
48.0
10.8

88.9
r
73 5
M2. 9
51.6
11.0

282 5
113.5
89 4
73 8
43 5
51.7
11.1

36.4
12.7

36.3
12.3

36.4
13 0

36 6
12.9

11.7
14.0
26.2
28.7
9.3

11 5
!4.3
27.1
33.0
-•9.8

11 5
14 3
27.2
!35 4
9.8

387.6

MOO. 2

1404.7

109. 5
86.3
72.4
41.4
49.6
11.1

271.5
108.3
85.4
72.0
41.5
49.7
11.2

269.6

110.0
86.7
72.3
41.3
49.4
10.9

36.3
12.4

36.3
12.4

36.4
12.5

36.4
12.8

36.0
12.8

36.0
12.8

35.8
12.9

36.0
13.0

36.1
12.9

36.3
12.9

11.7
14.0
26.3
28.8
9.3

11.7
14.1
26.4
29.3
9.3

11.7
14.3
26.6
29.8
9.4

11.7
14.4
26.6
30.2
9.3

11.7
14.4
26.7
30.7
9.3

11.6
14.1
26.7
31.0
9.2

11.6
14.2
26.8
31.1
9.6

11.5
14.2
26.8
31.1
9.4

11.4
14.2
26.8
!33. 7
9.6

11.5
14.2
26.8
32.5
9.6

11.5
14.2
27.0
33.0
9.7

388.3

388.7

389.0

389.8

389.1

387.2

386.8

386.2

1 390. 4

392.9

396.4

110.2
86.9
72.6
41.2
49.1
10.9

106.2
84.0
71.8
41.7
49.8
11.3

106.2
83.8
71.8
41.6
50.0
11.0

109. 1
86.1
72.3
42.3
51.0
10.7

110.5
87. 6
72.9
42.5
51.3
10.8

r

112.7

r

r

NEW PLANT AND EQUIPMENT
EXPENDITURES
Unadjusted quarterly totals:
All industries

bil of dol

Durable goods industries
Nondurable goods industries

do
do

"Rail nnrl«! ~

do

Transportation other than rail
Public utilities
Commercial and other

do
do
do

Seasonally adjusted quarterly totals at annual rates:
All industries
bil of dol

2

3

9.28

8.98

9 53

7 57

3. 76
1.88
1.88

3.62
1.80
1.81

4 01
1.95
2.06

3 00
1.41
1 59

3 51
1.62
1 89

3 48
1 58
1 91

.27
.29
.55
1.42
2.99

.25
.24
.47
1.50
2.91

.24
25
.46
1 58
2.99

21
17
.41
1 09
2.69

.26
20
.49
1 45
2.81

26
16
45
1 65
2 68

36.30

35.90

35. 50

33 85

2

8 72

33. 85

3

8 70

34 60

Manufacturing
Durable goods industries
Nondurable goods industries

do
do
do

14.70
7.40
7.30

14.65
7.35
7.30

14.40
6 85
7 55

13. 75
6 50
7.25

13.65
6 30
7.35

14 05
6 40
7 70

Mining
Railroads
Transportation other than rail
Public utilities

do
do
do
do

1.05
1.10
2. 15
5.70
11. 60

1.00
1.00
1.90
5.60
11. 75

.PO
1 00
1 80
5 70
11 65

.95
70
1 75
5 35
11 30

1.00
.75
1 85
5.75
10 90

1.05
65
1 85
6 15
10 80

FARM INCOME AND MARKETINGS^
Cash receipts from farming, including Government
payments total
mil of dol
Farm marketings and CCC loans total
do
Crops
do
Livestock and products total?
do
Dairy products
do
Meat animals
do
Poultry and eggs
do
Indexes of cash receipts from marketings and CCC
loans, unadjusted:
\11 commodities
1947-49 — 100
Crops
do
Livestock and products
do
Indexes of volume of farm marketings, unadjusted:
All commodities
1 947- 49 = 100
Crops
do
Livestock and products
_ _ - _ _ do

2,513

2,802

3,023

3,375

4,336

3,847

3,268

3,123

2,272

2,278

2,171

2,478

2,479

2,489

952
1,537
409
847
254

2, 738
1,316
1,422
389
759
250

2,992

3,353

1,397
1,595
379
902
282

1,715
1, 638
379
926
298

4,036

2,181
1,855
393
1,100
339

3, 767

3,077

2,250

788
1,462
377
819
238

607
1,652
424
924
279

2,137
618
1,519
417
823
249

2,236

2,447

1,448
1, 629
409
938
247

2,259

1,694
379
964
338

3,221
1,624
1,597
403
854
316

615
1,621
448
897
256

915
1, 532
427
832
246

102
89
113

112
123
104

123
130
117

138
160
120

166
203
136

155
193
124

132
151
117

126
135
120

92
74
107

93
57
121

88
58
111

92
57
119

112

118
96
134

132
143
124

143
148
140

156
174
142

191
236
156

176
222
142

146
168
130

r!44

102
81
118

103
57
137

97
53
130

r 52
r 147

2,073

163
131

100
85

r 106

120
90
142

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION t
Revised Federal Reserve Index of Quantity Output
Unadjusted, total index (including utilities)!
1957=100—
By industry:
Manufacturing, total
do
Durable manufactures
do
Nondurable manufactures.
do
Mining
do
Utilities
do
By market grouping:
Final products, total
Consumer goods
Automotive and home goods
Apparel and staples
Equipment, including defense

do
_ do
_ _ do
do
do

109

103

107

108

110

106

101

102

103

104

107

108

110
106
116
98

103
99
109
94

106
98
117
98

108
102
117
98

110
103
119
98

106
100
114
97

100
96
106
97

101
95
109
97

102
96
111
97

103
97
112
96

r 107

100
115
97

108
103
'115
98

111
M06
r
118
T
99

112
116
121
115
104

107
110
104
112
102

111
115
99
121
101

112
117
110
119
102

114
121
123
120
101

110
115
117
114
100

106
108
108
108
101

106
109
101
112
101

108
111
104
114
101

107
111
104
113
101

110
113
112
114
102

110
114
113
114
102

r H8

Mil
T

r H3
T H8

'118
103

P106

P log

plOl

pl!3
P 96

r> 1 AQ

p 113
P 105
P115
^102

r 1Q7
107
Materials
do
105
100
104
105
98
102
98
r 100
99
101
104
104
96
100
Durable goods materials
do_
97
99
95
90
90
p QQ
90
91
96
101
105
111
104
110
r 113
110
112
Nondurable materials.
do_ _
•D i ns
r 112
108
109
111
119
106
110
' Revised.
*> Preliminary.
1 Italicized totals for March and July exclude stepped-up rate of, and special Government life insurance dividend payments to veterans, respectively total
disbursements of $150 million (March) and $218 million (July) multiplied by 12 (to put on annual rate basis) amounted to $1.8 billion (March) and $2.6 billion (July)
Figures for transfer
payments and total nonagricultural income reflecting similar exclusion are as follows: March—$31.9 billion and $388.6 billion; July—$32.8 billion and $402.1 billion. ' 2 Estimates for AprilJune 1961 based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
s Estimates for July-September 1961 based on anticipated capital expenditures of business.
Anticipated expenditures for
the year 1961, and comparative data for 1959-60, appear on p. 8 of the June 1961 SURVEY.
JSee note marked "t" on page S-l.
cf Revised beginning 1958; revisions prior to May 1960 will be shown later.
9 Includes data not shown separately.
tRevised series. For figures back to January 1955 for total and summary groups (seasonally adjusted), see p. 6 of the January 1960 SURVEY; for other information and earlier figures back
to 194-7 (1919 for total industrial production, including utilities), see the December 1959 Federal Reserve Bulletin and the separate Federal Reserve publication "Industrial Production- 1959
Revision" (available from the Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System).





Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102