View original document

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

September 1993

N ational
Economic
Trends
How We Measure
National Saving
Economic analysts have a keen interest in measures
of national saving because it determines in a funda­
mental way the nation’s future living standards. On
an individual basis saving represents an effort to accu­
mulate wealth; on an aggregate basis it represents the
resources available to increase the nation’s capital
stock over time. This linkage between saving and in­
vestment provides one of the vehicles through which a
country boosts its long-term economic growth.
Ideally, we would want to measure saving net of
allowance for capital consumption— called depretion. Accurately measuring depreciation is diffi­
cult, however. As a result, analysts usually look at
gross measures of saving and investment that include
capital consumption. Many studies have found that
gross measures are more closely related than net mea­
sures to economic growth anyway.

Q

There are several ways to measure saving, but the
method used in the national income and product ac­
counts is the best known (see table). In this frame­
work gross saving consists of: (1) personal saving,
which is personal income (excluding changes in asset
values) less consumer spending on goods and services
and personal tax payments; (2) gross business saving,
includes retained earnings, and is the largest compo­
nent because it also includes capital consumption al­
lowances; and (3) government saving, the sum of the
federal, state and local budget surpluses. Both the
household and government sectors contributed to the
decline in gross saving as a percent of gross domestic
product (GDP) in the first half of 1993. One objective
of the recent budget act is to reverse the trend of gov­
ernment dissaving, boosting overall saving and mak­
ing more funds available for investment.
— Kevin L. Kliesen

AVERAGE SAVING AND INVESTMENT AS A PERCENT OF GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT
1983 to 1992

1993:1st half

Gross Saving
Personal saving
Gross business saving
Government saving

14.0%
4.0
13.0
-3.0

12.1%
3.1
12.9
-3.9

+StatisticaI discrepancy

-0.1

0.4

=Gross investment
Gross private domestic investment
Net foreign investment

13.9
15.9
-1.9

12.5
13.9
-1.4

Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
I

National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing
Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank' of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling 314-444-8809.
Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal
computer and a modem at 314-621-1824.




C onsum er P rice Index - All Urban C onsum ers
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1987

1988

1989

1990

Percent

1991

1992

1993

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Honth
12-91

Initial Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

1-92

3.1
3.5

3.5

3.5

3.5

4.0

3.5

5-92

3.2

3.1

3.2

2.6

3.1

3.0

3.1

2.6

2.2

3.1

3.1

3.1

2.8

2.6

3.0

3-93

3.5

4-93

5-93

6-93

2.6

7-92

2-93

1.7

6-92

1-93

4.4

4-92

1982-84=100

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

2.6

3-92

8-92

3.5

2-92

7-92

138.5
138.8
139.3
139.7
139.9
140.2
140.6

8-92

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.9

3.0

2.6

9-92

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.2

1.7

10-92

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.0

2.9

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.5

5.2

11-92

3.1

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.8

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.9

2.6

12-92

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.8

3.2

2.1

1-93

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.9

3.4

3.9

6.1

2-93

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.6

4.0

3.6

4.0

5.2

4.3

3-93

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.6

3.2

3.4

4.0

3.0

1.7

4-93

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.8

3.6

3.8

4.3

3.7

3.4

5.1

5-93

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.5

3.3

3.4

3.8

3.2

2.8

3.4

6-93

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.9

3.1

2.5

2.1

2.2

0.8

0.0

7-93

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.3

1.9

1.9

0.8

0.4

0.8

12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93




140.9
141.1
141.7
142.0
1.7

142.2
142.9
143.4
143.6
144.2
1.7

144.4
144.4
144.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 13, 1993

2

Consumer Price Index - Food
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Month
12-91

Initial Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

1982-84=100

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93
137.1

1-92

-0.9

2-92

1.3

3.6

3-92

2.4

4.0

4.5

4-92

2.0

2.9

2.6

0.9

137.5
138.0
138.1
137.5

5-92

0.5

0.9

0.0

-2.2

-5.1

6-92

0.6

0.9

0.2

-1.2

-2.2

0.9

7-92

0.4

0.6

0.0

-1.1

-1.7

0.0

-0.9

8-92

1.2

1.5

1.2

0.5

0.4

2.3

3.1

7.2

9-92

1.5

1.8

1.5

1.0

1.0

2.6

3.2

5.4

3.5

10-92

1.3

1.6

1.3

0.9

0.9

2.1

2.4

3.5

1.7

0.0

11-92

1.3

1.5

1.3

0.9

0.9

1.9

2.1

2.9

1.5

0.4

0.9

12-92

1.5

1.7

1.5

1.2

1.2

2.1

2.3

3.0

2.0

1.4

2.2

137.6
137.5
138.3
138.7
138.7
138.8
3.5

139.2

1-93

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.5

2.4

2.6

3.2

2.4

2.2

2.9

4.0

4.4

2-93

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.6

2.3

2.5

3.0

2.3

2.1

2.6

3.2

3.1

1.7

3-93

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.6

2.3

2.4

2.8

2.2

2.0

2.4

2.8

2.6

1.7

1.7

4-93

1.9

2.0

1.9

1.7

1.8

2.5

2.6

3.0

2.5

2.4

2.8

3.1

3.0

2.6

3.0

4.4

5-93

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.7

2.9

3.2

2.8

2.7

3.1

3.5

3.5

3.3 * 3.8

4.8

5.2

6-93

1.6

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.5

2.1

2.2

2.5

2.0

1.8

2.1

2.2

2.0

1.6

1.5

1.4

0.0

-5.0

7-93

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.9

2.0

2.3

1.8

1.6

1.8

2.0

1.7

1.3

1.2

1.1

0.0

-2.5

0.0

12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

139.7
139.9
140.1
140.6
141.2
140.6
140.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August IS, 1993

Consumer Price Index - Energy
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terainal
Month
12-91

Initial Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

1982-84=100

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-92

-10.1

2-92

-7.4
-3.9

-0.6

3.6

4-92

-2.0

0.8

3.6

3.6

5-92

-0.5

2.1

4.4

4.8

6.1

6-92

2.2

4.8

7.3

8.6

11.1

16.4

7-92

3.0

5.4

7.5

8.5

10.2

12.4

2.1

3.9

5.4

5.8

6.3

6.4

1.8

1.8

3.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

4.8

1.2

-2.3

2.2

3.7

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.0

2.3

0.4

2.9

5-93

6-93

0.0

10-92

4-93

-4.5

9-92

3-93

8.5

8-92

2-93

-4.6

3-92

1-93

101.1

6.0

100.7
101.0
101.3
101.8
103.1
103.8
103.4
103.4
103.9

11-92

2.2

3.6

4.5

4.6

4.8

4.6

2.3

0.9

2.7

4.1

2.3

12-92

1.9

3.0

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.6

1.6

0.2

1.5

1.9

0.0

-2.3

1-93

2.2

3.3

4.0

4.1

4.1

3.9

2.2

1.2

2.3

2.9

1.9

1.7

104.1
103.9
5.9

104.4

2-93

1.7

2.6

3.3

3.2

3.2

2.9

1.3

0.3

1.2

1.4

0.3

-0.4

0.6

-4.5

3-93

2.1

3.0

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.4

2.1

1.3

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.7

3.1

1.7

8.4

4-93

2.1

3.0

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.3

2.1

1.4

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.9

2.9

1.9

5.3

5-93

1.3

2.1

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.1

0.8

0.1

0.6

0.7

0.0

-0.4

0.0

-1.4

-0.4

-4.5 -10.9

6-93

1.1

1.8

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.7

0.6

-0.1

0.3

0.4

-0.3

-0.7

-0.4

-1.6

-0.9

-3.8

-6.7

-2.3

7-93

1.0

1.7

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.6

0.5

-0.1

0.3

0.3

-0.3

-0.6

-0.3

-1.3

-0.7

-2.8

-4.5

-1.1

0.0

12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93




104.0
104.7
2.3

104.9
103.9
103.7
103.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 13, 1993

P roducer P rice Index —F in ish ed Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1987

1988

1989

1990

Percent

1991

1992

1993

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terainal
Month
12-91

Initial Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

1-92

0.0

2-92

1.5
2.0

3.0

2.2

3.0

3.0

2.6

3.2

3.3

3.5

2.6

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.5

2.3

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.3

1.5

2.1

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.3

0.5

1.0

9-92

2.2

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.2

1.7

1.3

2.0

3.0

6-93

0.0

8-92

5-93

3.0

7-92

4-93

4.0

6-92

3-93

3.0

5-92

2-93

3.0

4-92

1-93

3.0

3-92

1982 = 100

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92
121.9

122.2
122.5
122.8
123.2
123.5
123.5
123.6
123.9

10-92

2.1

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.6

1.2

1.6

2.0

1.0

11-92

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.0

0.6

0.7

0.6

-0.5

-1.9

12-92

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.2

0.8

0.5

0.6

0.5

-0.3

-1.0

0.0

1-93

1.7

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.2

1.0

1.1

1.2

0.7

0.6

2.0

3.9

2-93

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.7

2.9

4.4

4.9

3-93

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.7

1.9

2.1

1.9

2.1

3.2

4.3

4.4

3.9

124.0
123.8
123.8
124.2
124.7
125.1

4-93

2.3

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.1

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.8

3.7

4.7

4.9

4.9

5.9

5-93

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.2

2.4

3.1

3.7

3.7

3.2

2.9

0.0

6-93

1.9

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.5

1.6

2.1

2.4

2.1

1.5

0.6

-1.9

-3.8

7-93

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.6

1.8

1.5

0.8

0.0

-1.9

-2.8

-1.9

12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93




4

125.7
125.7
125.3
125.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 12, 1993

Civilian E m ploym ent and U n em p lo y m en t Rate
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

1987

1988

1989

Percent

1990

1991

1992

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terainal
Month
12-91

1-92

1-92

1.1

3-92

4-92

5-92

7-92

Initial Month
Persons
9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

8-92

-0.8

Thousands of
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

3.0

2-92

2-92

6-92

117,036
116,962

3-92

1.8

1.2

3.1

4-92

2.0

1.7

2.9

117,264

5-92

1.7

1.4

2.1

1.6

0.6

6-92

1.3

1.0

1.4

0.8

0.0

-0.7

7-92

1.4

1.2

1.6

1.2

0.7

0.7

2.2

8-92

1.3

1.1

1.4

1.1

0.7

0.7

1.4

0.6

9-92

1.1

0.9

1.1

0.8

0.4

0.4

0.7

0.0

-0.6

10-92

1.0

0.7

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.2

0.5

-0.1

-0.5

-0.4

2.6

117,518
117,580
117,510
117,722
117,780
117,724
117,687

11-92

1.2

1.1

1.3

1.0

0.8

0.8

1.1

0.9

1.0

1.7

3.9

12-92

1.3

1.2

1.4

1.2

1.0

1.1

1.4

1.2

1.4

2.0

3.2

2.5

1-93

1.0

0.9

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.8

0.6

0.6

C .9

1.3

0.0

-2.4

2-93

1.2

1.1

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.5

2.0

1.3

0.7

3.9

3-93

1.2

1.1

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.4

1.8

1.3

0.9

2.5

1.2

4-93

1.1

0.9

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.8

1.0

1.2

0.7

0.3

1.2

-0.2

-1.5

5-93

1.5

1.4

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.7

2.0

2.3

2.1

2.0

3.1

2.8

3.6

9.0

6-93

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.7

2.0

1.7

1.5

2.3

2.0

2.2

4.1

-0.5

7-93

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.4

2.1

1.7

1.9

3.0

0.1

0.8

12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93




118,064
118,311
118,071
118,451
118,565
118,416
119,273
119,219
119,301

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 6, 1993

5

Payroll E m ploym ent
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

Millions of Persons

125

125

115

115

105

105

95

85

75

-------r—
t-------1

65

— i-------1
-------1-------------- 1
-------1
-------1
-------------- r

1987

1988

1989

1990

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month
12-91

Thousands of
Persons

Initial Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93
108,051

1-92

-0.7

2-92

-0.4

-0.1

3-92

0.2

0.6

108,045
1.3

108,164
108,347

4-92

0.6

1.1

1.7

2.0

5-92

0.8

1.2

1.6

1.7

1.4

6-92

0.6

0.9

1.1

1.1

0.6

7-92

0.8

1.0

8-92

0.7

0.9

1.1

9-92

0.7

0.9

1.0

0.9

10-92

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.0

11-92

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.1

12-92

0.9

1.0

1.1

1-93

1.0

1.1

2-93

1.1

3-93

108,470
108,454

-0.2

108,605

0.7

1.7

0.5

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.8

0.4

0.7

108,674

0.8

0.7

0.9

0.7

1.0

1.3

108,789

0.9

0.8

1.0

0.9

1.1

1.4

1.5

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.8

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.6

3.4

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

0.3

4-93

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

1.5

2.8

5-93

1.3

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

1.9

2.7

2.6

6-93

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.5

2.0

1.6

0.5

7-93

1.2

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.6

1.9

1.6

1.1

1.8

12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

1.2




1.2
1.0

1.0
0.7

108,615

0.1

108,921
109,079
109,235

1.7

109,539
109,565
109,820
110,058
110,102
110,264

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 6, 1993

Service-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Teminal
Month
12-91

Thousands of
Persons

Initial Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93
84,741

1-92

0.4

2-92

0.5

0.5

3-92

0.9

1.1

1.7

4-92

1.4

1.7

2.3

2.8

5-92

1.5

1.8

2.2

2.4

1.9

6-92

1.3

1.5

1.8

1.8

1.3

0.7

7-92

1.5

1.7

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.5

8-92

1.5

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.8

1.4

9-92

1.5

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.8

1.5

1.7

10-92

1.5

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.8

1.9

11-92

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.8

1.7

1.8

1.9

1.9

12-92

1.6

1.7

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.9

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.4

84,779
84,897
85,096
85,233
85,282
85,445

2.3

85,542
85,662
85,794
85,926
86,094

1-93

1.7

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.0

2-93

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.9

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.6

2.6

86,234
3.3

86,470

3-93

1.7

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.2

1.1

4-93

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.6

4.1

86,549

5-93

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.9

2.7

3.5

3.0

6-93

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.9

2.3

1.6

7-93

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.2

1.8

2.1

12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

86,840
87,052
87,164
87,317

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 6, 1993

Goods-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month
12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

Initial Month
Persons
9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

8-92

Thousands of
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

1-92

-4.7

2-92

-3.5

-2.2

3-92

-2.3

-1.1

0.1

4-92

-1.9

-1.0

-0.4

-0.8

5-92

-1.7

-0.9

-0.5

-0.8

-0.7

6-92

-2.0

-1.4

-1.2

-1.6

-2.0

-3.3

7-92

-1.8

-1.3

-1.1

-1.4

-1.6

-2.0

-0.6

8-92

-2.1

-1.7

-1.7

-2.0

-2.3

-2.8

-2.5

-4.4

9-92

-2.2

-1.9

-1.9

-2.2

-2.4

-2.9

-2.7

-3.8

-3.1

10-92

-2.1

-1.8

-1.7

-2.0

-2.2

-2.5

-2.3

-2.8

-2.0

11-92

-1.9

-1.6

-1.6

-1.7

-1.9

-2.1

-1.8

-2.1

-1.3

-0.4

0.0

12-92

-1.8

-1.5

-1.4

-1.6

-1.7

-1.9

-1.6

-1.8

-1.1

-0.5

-0.3

-0.5

1-93

-1.6

-1.3

-1.2

-1.4

-1.4

-1.5

-1.3

-1.4

-0.7

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.8

2-93

-1.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.9

-0.9

-1.0

-0.7

-0.7

0.0

0.6

1.0

1.3

2.2

3.6

3-93

-1.3

-1.1

-1.0

-1.1

-1.1

-1.1

-0.9

-0.9

-0.4

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.4

-2.7

4-93

-1.4

-1.1

-1.1

-1.1

-1.2

-1.2

-1.0

-1.0

-0.6

-0.2

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

-0.4

-2.3

-1.9

5-93

-1.2

-1.0

-0.9

-1.0

-1.0

-1.0

-0.8

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

-1.1

-0.3

1.4

6-93

-1.3

-1.1

-1.1

-1.1

-1.2

-1.2

-1.0

-1.0

-0.7

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.7

-1.7

-1.3

-1.1

-3.5

7-93

-1.2

-1.0

-1.0

-1.0

-1.0

-1.1

-0.9

-0.9

-0.6

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-1.3

-0.9

-0.6

-1.5

0.5

12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

23,310
23,266




23,267
23,251
23,237
23,172
23,160
23,073
23,012
22,995

-0.9

22,995
22,985
23,001
23,069
23,016
22,980
23,006
22,938
22,947

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 6, 1993

Change in th e E m ploym ent Cost Index and Its C om ponents
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total compensation is the sum of benefits and wages and salaries for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation.
(Compounded Annual Rales o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

August 1989 - 100
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93
97.8

4-88

5.1

1-89

4.6

4.2

2-89

4.6

4.3

4.5

3-89

4.8

4.7

4.9

98.8
99.9
101.2

5.3

4-89

4.8

4.7

4.9

5.1

4.8

1-90

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.6

2-90

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.3

5.1

3-90

4.9

4.8

4.9

5.0

4.9

5.0

4.7

4.3

4-90

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.0

3.8

1-91

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.6

2-91

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.7

4.9

3-91

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.4

4-91

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.1

3.7

1-92

4.6

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.2

4.0

3.8

4.0

2-92

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.5

3.4

2.9

3-92

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.0

3.2

4-92

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.2

3.4

3.5

1-93

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.6

3.9

4.2

2-93

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.5

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

102.4
103.8
105.1
106.2
107.2
108.4
109.7
110.9
111.9
113.0
113.8
114.7
115.7
116.9
117.9

Data are for the last aonth of quarter.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 27, 1993

8

In d u strial P rod u ction
Seasonally Adjusted

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month
12-91

1987 = 100

Initial Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93
104.5

1-92

-2.3

2-92

3.5

9.6

3-92

3.5

6.5

3.5

4-92

4.7

7.1

5.8

8.3

5-92

4.6

6.4

5.4

6.4

4.6

6-92

2.5

3.5

2.0

1.5

-1.7

-7.6

7-92

3.5

4.5

3.5

3.4

1.9

0.6

9.4

8-92

2.7

3.5

2.5

2.3

0.8

-0.4

3.4

-2.2

9-92

1.9

2.5

1.5

1.1

-0.2

-1.4

0.8

-3.3

-4.4

10-92

3.2

3.8

3.2

3.1

2.3

1.8

4.3

2.6

5.2

15.7

11-92

3.9

4.5

3.9

4.0

3.4

3.2

5.5

4.6

6.9

13.1

10.5

12-92

4.0

4.6

4.1

4.2

3.7

3.6

5.5

4.8

6.6

10.6

8.1

5.7

1-93

4.0

4.6

4.2

4.2

3.8

3.7

5.4

4.7

6.2

9.0

6.9

5.1

4.5

105.3
105.6
106.3
106.7
106.0
106.8
106.6
106.2
107.5
108.4
108.9
109.3

2-93

4.2

4.8

4.4

4.5

4.1

4.0

5.6

5.0

6.3

8.6

6.8

5.7

5.6

6.8

3-93

4.1

4.6

4.2

4.3

3.9

3.8

5.2

4.7

5.7

7.5

5.9

4.8

4.5

4.5

2.2

4-93

4.1

4.5

4.1

4.2

3.9

3.8

5.0

4.5

5.4

6.9

5.5

4.5

4.2

4.1

2.8

3.3

5-93

3.7

4.1

3.7

3.7

3.4

3.3

4.3

3.8

4.5

5.7

4.3

3.3

2.9

2.5

1.1

0.5

-2.2

6-93

3.5

3.8

3.5

3.5

3.1

3-0

4.0

3.5

4.1

5.1

3.8

2.9

2.4

2.0

0.8

0.4

-1.1

0.0

7-93

3.5

3.9

3.5

3.5

3.2

3.1

4.0

3.6

4.1

5.0

3.9

3.1

2.7

2.4

1.5

1.4

0.7

2.2

4.4

12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93




109.9
110.1
110.4
110.2
110.2
110.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 16, 1993

P erson al Incom e in 1987 Dollars
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

1987

1988

1989

1990

Trillions of Dollars

1991

1992

1993

The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
1er«inai
Month
12-91

Initial Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
6-93

5-93

3,559.5

1-92

-3.3

2-92

2.4

8.4

3-92

3.1

6.5

4.7

4-92

2.6

4.7

2.9

1.1

5-92

2.7

4.2

2.9

2.0

3.0

6-92

2.4

3.6

2.5

1.7

2.1

1.2

7-92

2.1

3.1

2.0

1.4

1.5

0.7

0.2

8-92

2.5

3.3

2.5

2.1

2.4

2-1

2.6

5.1

9-92

2.4

3.1

2.4

2.0

2.2

2.0

2.2

3.3

1.5

10-92

3.3

4.0

3.5

3.3

3.7

3.9

4.6

6.0

6.5

11.8

11-92

2.7

3.3

2.7

2.5

2.7

2.7

3.0

3.7

3.2

4.0

-3.2

12-92

7.3

8.3

8.3

8.7

9.7

10.7

12.3

14.9

17.5

23.4

29.7

3,583.5
3,597.1
3,600.4
3,609.2
3,612.7
3,613.4
3,628.4
3,632.8
3,666.8
3,656.9
73.7

3,829.1

1-93

1.6

2.0

1.4

1.1

1.1

0.9

0.9

1.0

0.2

-0.2

-3.9

-4.2 -47.2

2-93

1.6

2.0

1.5

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.4

0.2

-2.5

-2.2 -26.6

1.9

3-93

2.0

2.4

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.8

2.0

1.5

1.5

-0.4

0.3 -16.5

5.0

8.2

4-93

2.6

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.7

3.0

2.8

2.9

1.5

2.5 -10.2

7.3

10.0

11.9

5-93

2.5

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.8

2.6

2.7

1.5

2.3

-8.0

5.7

7.0

6.5

1.3

6-93

2.3

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.4

2.1

2.2

1.1

1.7

-7.0

4.2

4.8

3.6

-0.3

-1.8

7-93

1.9

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.6

0.5

0.9

-6.6

2.7

2.9

1.6

-1.6

-3.0

-4.2

12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

3,630.7
3,636.5
3,660.4
3,694.8
3,698.9
3,693.2
3,680.0

Revised fro« 1990.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 1, 1993

10

R etail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

190

170

150

130

110

1991

1990

1989

1988

1987

1993

1992

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Retail Sales in 1982-84 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month
12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

Initial Month
Dollars
9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

8-92

Millions of
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

1-92

15.6

2-92

14.8

3-92

5.4

4-92

3.5

-0.2

-6.7

-1.9

5-92

3.8

1.0

-3.0

1.4

4.8

6-92

2.8

0.5

-2.7

0.4

1.5

-1.6

7-92

3.2

1.2

-1.2

1.5

2.7

1.7

5.1

8-92

3.3

1.6

-0.3

2.0

3.0

2.4

4.5

3.8

9-92

3.5

2.1

0.5

2.6

3.5

3.2

4.9

4.8

5.7

10-92

5.2

4.1

2.9

5.1

6.3

6.6

8.8

10. C

13.3

21.5

11-92

4.3

3.2

2.0

3.8

4.7

4.7

6.0

6.2

7.0

7.6

-4.7

12-92

4.9

4.0

3.0

4.7

5.6

5.7

7.0

7.4

8.3

9.2

3.5

12.3

1-93

4.1

3.2

2.2

3.7

4.3

4.3

5.2

5.2

5.4

5.4

0.5

3.2

-5.2

2-93

3.4

2.5

1.6

2.9

3.4

3.2

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.2

-0.9

0.4

-5.1

-4.9

3-93

2.2

1.3

0.4

1.5

1.8

1.5

1.8

1.4

1.1

0.3

-3.4

-3.1

-7.8

-9.1 -13.0

4-93

3.2

2.4

1.6

2.7

3.1

2.9

3.4

3.2

3.2

2.8

0.0

0.9

-1.7

-0.5

1.7

19.0

5-93

3.4

2.7

2.0

3.0

3.4

3.3

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.3

0.9

1.9

-0.1

1.3

3.4

12.8

7.0

6-93

3.4

2.7

2.0

3.0

3.3

3.2

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.2

1.1

2.0

0.3

1.5

3.1

9.2

4.6

2.2

7-93

3.2

2.6

1.9

2.8

3.1

3.0

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.0

1.1

1.8

0.4

1.4

2.7

7.0

3.3

1.5

0.9

12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

114,776
14.0

116,040

0.6 -11.2

114,894
114,711
115,158
115,004
115,482
115,844
116,379
118,280
117,811
118,956
118,427
117,933
116,567
118,265
118,931
119,150
119,236

Retail sales data deflated by CPI-U (1982-84=100).




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 12, 1993

11

In ven tories Com pared With M onthly Sales
Manufacturing and Trade
Seasonally Adjusted

Ratio

1.62

I
^V

1.58

/

r

¥V \ \
A

1.50

1.62

1I

1.58

1.54

Ratio

._

1.54

1.50

1

1.46

r~

1.46

1.42

1.42

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1993

1992

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month
11-91 12-91

Initial Month
1-92

2-92

12-91

0.1
0.5

-1.9

0.9

-0.6

1.7

6-92

7-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

8-92

2.1

1-93

2-93

Millions of
Dollars
3-93

4-93

5-93

1.2

3-92

5-92

-4.9

2-92

4-92

5.5

1-92

3-92

833,518
830,003
830,846
832,300

4-92

1.7

0.8

2.8

3.6

5.2

5-92

1.4

0.6

2.1

2.4

2.5

-0.2

6-92

2.1

1.5

2.9

3.3

3.7

3.0

6.3

7-92

2.4

2.0

3.2

3.5

3.9

3.5

5.4

4.4

8-92

2.4

2.1

3.1

3.4

3.7

3.3

4.5

3.6

2.8

9-92

2.1

1.7

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.4

3.0

2.0

0.7

-1.3

10-92

2.0

1.6

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.1

2.6

1.7

0.8

-0.2

1.0

11-92

2.0

1.7

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.6

1.8

1.2

0.7

1.7

2.4

12-92

2.1

1.9

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.4

2.8

2.2

1.8

1.5

2.4

3.2

4.0

1-93

2.2

2.0

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.8

2.3

2.0

1.8

2.6

3.1

3.5

3.0

835,805
835,685
839,937
842,979
844,940
844,011
844,728
846,374
849,117
851,190

2-93

2.4

2.2

2.7

2.9

2.9

2.7

3.0

2.7

2.4

2.3

3.1

3.6

4.0

4.0

5.1

3-93

2.6

2.4

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.4

3.1

2.9

2.9

3.6

4.1

4.6

4.8

5.7

6.3

4-93

2.8

2.6

3.1

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.5

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.8

4.2

4.6

4.8

5.4

5.6

4.8

5-93

2.7

2.6

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.1

3.4

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.6

4.0

4.3

4.3

4.7

4.5

3.6

2.4

6-93

2.7

2.6

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.3

3.1

2.9

2.9

3.4

3.7

3.9

3.9

4.1

3.9

3.1

2.2

2.0

11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93




854,715
859,094
862,478
864,198
865,603

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 13, 1993

12

Gross D om estic P roduct
,„ „
Trillions of Dollars

Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terainal
Quarter
3-88

4-88

4-88

3.5

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

3-90

Billions of Dollars
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

3.9

1-89

1-89

3.2

4,779.7
4,817.6

2-89

3.0

2.5

1.8

3-89

2.2

1.7

0.9

0.0

4-89

2.1

1.6

1.1

0.7

1.5

1-90

2.3

2.0

1.7

1.6

2.5

3.5

4,839.0
4,839.0
4,856.7
4,898.3

2-90

2.2

1.9

1.6

1.6

2.2

2.5

1.5

3-90

1.8

1.5

1.2

1.1

1.4

1.4

0.3

-0.9

4-90

1.2

0.9

0.6

0.4

0.5

0.2

-0.8

-2.0

-3.2

1-91

0.9

0.5

0.2

0.0

0.0

-0.3

-1.2

-2.1

-2.8

-2.4

2-91

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.0

-0.7

-1.3

-1.4

-0.5

1.5

3-91

1.0

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.3

0.2

-0.4

-0.7

-0.7

0.1

1.4

1.4

4-91

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

1.2

1.0

0.6

1-92

1.1

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.9

1.7

1.8

2.0

3.5

4,917.1
4,906.5
4,867.2
4,837.8
4,855.6
4,872.6
4,879.6
4,922.0

2-92

1.2

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.5

0.4

0.6

1.2

2.0

2.1

2.3

3.2

2.8

3-92

1.4

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.9

1.5

2.2

2.3

2.6

3.3

3.1

3.4

4-92

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.5

2.0

2.7

2.9

3.2

3.9

4.0

4.6

5.7

1-93

1.6

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.9

2.5

2.6

2.8

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.2

0.8

2-93

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.4

1.9

2.4

2.5

2.7

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.8

1.3

1.8

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

4,956.5
4,998.2
5,068.3
5,078.2
5,101.0

Second quarter data are preliminary estivates. Revised fro« 1990.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Sank of St. Louis
August 31, 1993

13

Im p licit Price D eflator for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

4.3

3.5

2.7

1.9

1

----------- 1
------------r

1987

1 ------ 1
------ 1
------------ 1 ----- 1
------ 1
------------ 1
------ 1
------ 1
------------ 1 ----- 1
------ 1
------------ 1
------ 1
------r

----------- 1
----------- r

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1.9

1993

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terainal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

1987 = 100
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

4-88

3.9

1-89

4.6

5.4

105.5

2-89

4.6

5.0

4.6

3-89

4.4

4.6

4.2

3.8

4-89

4.3

4.4

4.0

3.7

3.7

1-90

4.4

4.5

4.3

4.2

4.4

5.2

2-90

4.4

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.8

4.4

3-90

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.5

4.2

4.0

4-90

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.5

4.2

4.1

4.3

1-91

4.4

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.4

4.4

4.6

5.0

2-91

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.1

3-91

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.1

4-91

4.1

4.1

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.4

2.9

2.7

2.4

1-92

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.8

2-92

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.4

3.0

3-92

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.6

2.0

1.0

4-92

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.5

2.2

3.3

1-93

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.1

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

3.5

3.6

2-93

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.1

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.6

3.1

3.0

2.3

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

106.9
108.1
109.1
110.1
111.5
112.7
113.8
115.0
116.4
117.3
118.2

3.1

118.9
120.0
120.9
121.2
122.2
123.3
124.0

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates. Revised fora 1990.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1993

14

Final Sales in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

4-88

2.8
2.6

1.8

2.4

1.8

2.0

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-93

4-92

2.2

3-89

4-89

1.5

2-89

3-89

4.1

1-89

2-89

4,758.7
4,776.3
4,802.0
1.8

4,823.0

4-89

2.0

1.5

1.6

1.2

0.7

1-90

2.6

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.9

4,831.8
5.2

4,893.6

2-90

2.1

1.8

1.9

1.8

1.8

2.4

-0.4

3-90

1.9

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.8

0.1

0.5

4-90

1.7

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.2

-0.2

0.0

-0.6

1-91

1.2

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.4

-0.8

-0.9

-1.6

2-91

1.3

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

-0.3

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

1.9

3-91

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.5

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-0.4

0.8

-0.4

4,889.0
4,895.6
4,888.0
-2.7

4,655.2
4,878.0
4,873.5

4-91

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.3

0.5

-0.2

-0.1

1-92

1.3

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.6

1.5

1.3

2.2

2-92

1.3

1.1

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.8

1.5

1.3

1.9

2.9

1.4

3-92

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.2

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.2

1.8

1.8

2.4

3.2

2.5

3.7

4,872.5
4.5

4,926.9
4,943.8
4,988.6

4-92

1.7

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.7

2.4

2.5

3.0

3.8

3.6

4.7

5.8

1-93

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.0

1.2

1.2

1.4

2.0

2.0

2.4

2.9

2.5

2.8

2.4

-0.8

2-93

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.6

2.1

2.1

2.5

2.9

2.6

2.9

2.6

1.1

3.1

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

5,059.6
5,048.9
5,087.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1993

Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terainal
Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

3-90

4-88

2.1
1.8

0.6

1.1

3-89

2.0

1.4

2.0

1.8

1.2

1.6

1.9

2.0

1.5

1.9

2.2

1.8

1.8

1.4

1.7

1.8

1.5

1.8

0.9

3-90

1.8

1.5

1.8

1.9

1.6

1.9

1.5

2.1

4-90

1.3

1.0

1.1

1.1

0.8

0.7

0.1

-0.3

-2.7

1-91

0.9

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.2

0.0

-0.7

-1.2

-2.8

-2.8

2-91

1.0

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.3

-0.2

-0.4

-1.3

-0.6

1.8

3-91

1.0

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.5

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.6

0.0

1.5

1-93

2.8

2-90

4-92

0.8

1-90

3-92

2.9

4-89

2-92

0.1

2-89

1-92

4.1

1-89

Billions of Dollars
4-91

1.3

3,202.9
3,203.6
3,212.2
3,235.3
3,242.0
3,264.4
3,271.6
3,288.4
3,265.9
3,242.7
3,256.9
3,267.1

4-91

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.5

0.0

1.0

0.7

0.0

1-92

1.2

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.9

1.8

1.9

2.2

4.3

2-92

1.2

1.0

1.1

1.1

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.5

1.0

1.8

1.8

2.0

3.0

1.8

3-92

1.4

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

0.9

1.5

2.2

2.3

2.6

3.4

3.0

4.2

4-92

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.5

2.0

2.7

2.9

3.2

4.0

3.8

4.9

5.6

1-93

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.9

2.5

2.6

2.8

3.3

3.1

3.5

3.2

0.8

2-93

1.7

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.6

2.0

2.5

2.6

2.8

3.3

3.1

3.4

3.2

2.0

3.2

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

3,267.5
3,302.3
3,316.8
3,350.9
3,397.2
3,403.8
3,430.8

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates. Revised fro« 1990.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1993

15

Residential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-88

-1.2
-4.8
-5.5

-8.3

-9.7

-5.6

-7.7

-8.4

-6.8

-3.6

-4.9

-4.8

-2.3

0.4

2-90

-5.8

-7.3

-7.6

-6.6

-6.3

3-90

-8.0

-9.6 -10.2

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-93

4-92

-5.9

1-90

4-90

-7.6

4-89

3-90

-8.6 -11.7

3-89

2-90

-5.4

2-89

1-90

3.3

1-89

4-89

225.3
222.2
215.4
211.2
208.0
7.1

211.6

-6.4 -18.3

201.2

-9.9 -10.5 -12.0 -20.2 -22.1

189.0

4-90

-10.0 -11.5 -12.4 -12.5 -13.5 -15.2 -21.6 -23.2 -24.3

1-91

-11.7 -13.2 -14.1 -14.5 -15.6 -17.4 -22.6 -24.0 -24.9 -25.5

2-91

-10.6 -11.9 -12.6 -12.7 -13.4 -14.5 -18.3 -18.3 -17.0 -13.1

1.2

176.3
163.8
164.3

3-91

-8.5

-9.5

-9.9

-9.8 -10.0 -10.6 -13.2 -12.2

-9.5

-4.0

9.0

17.3

4-91

-6.6

-7.4

-7.5

-7.1

-7.1

-7.2

-9.1

-7.5

-4.2

1.6

12.6

18.8

20.3

1-92

-5.1

-5.7

-5.7

-5.2

-4.9

-4.8

-6.2

-4.3

-1.0

4.5

13.7

18.2

18.6

16.8

2-92

-3.5

-4.0

-3.8

-3.2

-2.8

-2.4

-3.4

-1.4

2.0

7.2

15.3

19.1

19.6

19.3

21.8

3-92

-3.2

-3.6

-3.5

-2.8

-2.4

-2.1

-3.0

-1.1

1.9

6.3

12.8

15.3

14.7

12.9

11.0

1.2

4-92

-1.4

-1.7

-1.4

-0.6

-0.1

0.4

-0.2

1.8

4.9

9.3

15.4

18.0

18.1

17.6

17.8

15.9

32.8

1-93

-1.2

-1.5

-1.2

-0.5

0.0

0.5

0.0

1.8

4.6

8.4

13.6

15.5

15.2

14.2

13.5

10.9

16.1

1.5

2-93

-1.6

-1.9

-1.7

-1.0

-0.6

-0.2

-0.7

0.9

3.3

6.6

10.9

12.2

11.5

10.1

8.8

5.7

7.3

-3.6

-8.4

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

171.0
179.1
186.2
195.6
196.2
210.6
211.4
206.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1993

Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terainal
Quarter
3-8«

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91

3-90

Billions of Dollars
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2.7

1-89

1.6

0.5

2-89

1.7

1.3

2.0

3-89

1.2

0.7

0.9

-0.3

4-89

0.2

-0.4

-0.7

-2.0

-3.7

1-90

1.9

1.7

2.0

2.0

3.1

10.4

2-90

1.0

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.7

2.9

-4.1

3-90

1.5

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.7

3.6

0.4

5.0

4-90

0.4

0.1

0.1

-0.2

-0.2

0.7

-2.4

-1.6

1-91

-1.0

-1.4

-1.7

-2.2

-2.5

-2.3

-5.2

-5.6 -10.5 -13.2

2-91

-1.2

-1.6

-1.8

-2.3

-2.6

-2.4

-4.7

-4.9

-8.0

-8.1

-2.7

3-91

-1.4

-1.8

-2.0

-2.4

-2.7

-2.6

-4.6

-4.7

-7.0

-6.7

-3.3

-3.8

4-91

-1.7

-2.1

-2.3

-2.7

-3.0

-2.9

-4.7

-4.8

-6.6

-6.3

-3.9

-4.5

-5.1

1-92

-1.3

-1.6

-1.8

-2.2

-2.4

-2.2

-3.7

-3.6

-5.0

-4.4

-2.1

-1.9

-0.9

3.5

2-92

-0.3

-0.5

-0.6

-0.8

-0.9

-0.6

-1.7

-1.5

-2.3

-1.4

1.1

2.1

4.2

9.2

15.1

3-92

-0.1

<J
S
0
1

538.8

4-88

-0.3

-0.5

-0.5

-0.2

-1.2

-0.9

-1.6

-0.7

1.6

2.5

4.1

7.4

9.3

3.8

4-92

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.4

-0.4

-0.1

-0.6

0.3

2.4

3.3

4.8

7.4

8.8

5.7

1-93

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.4

0.7

1.2

0.8

1.8

3.8

4.8

6.3

8.8

10.1

8.5

11.0

14.4

2-93

1.8

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.9

2.3

1.7

2.2

2.0

3.0

5.0

6.0

7.4

9.7

11.0

10.0

12.1

14.4

14.4

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

539.5
542.2
541.8
536.7
550.2
544.5
551.2
540.2

-7.7

521.4
517.8
512.8
506.1
510.5
528.8
533.8
543.7

7.6

562.3
581.5

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates. Revised froa 1990.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1993

16

Exports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-88

4-86

1-89

4-88

14.9
15.3

16.0

11.5

10.7

8.3

1-90

2-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

3-90

Billions of Dollars
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

16.3

3-89

4-89

15.7

2-89

3-89

14.0

1-89

2-89

438.2
454.5
472.0
0.8

472.9

4-89

11.8

11.3

9.9

6.8

13.1

1-90

11.9

11.5

10.4

8.5

12.6

12.1

2-90

11.3

10.8

9.8

8.3

10.9

9.8

7.6

3-90

9.5

8.9

7.8

6.2

7.5

5.8

2.7

-1.9

4-90

9.5

9.0

8.0

6.7

8.0

6.7

5.0

3.7

9.6

1-91

8.4

7.8

6.9

5.6

6.5

5.2

3.5

2.2

4.3

-0.8

2-91

9.4

8.9

8.2

7.2

8.2

7.4

6.5

6.2

9.1

8.8

19.4

3-91

8.8

8.4

7.7

6.8

7.5

6.8

5.9

5.6

7.5

6.8

10.9

3.0

4-91

9.2

8.8

8.2

7.4

8.2

7.6

6.9

6.8

8.7

8.4

11.7

8.0

13.3

1-92

8.9

8.5

7.9

7.2

7.8

7.3

6.7

6.5

8.0

7.7

9.9

7.0

9.0

487.7
501.8
511.1
508.6
520.4
519.4
542.9
546.9
564.2
571.0

4.9

570.2

2-92

8.2

7.8

7.2

6.5

7.0

6.5

5.8

5.6

6.8

6.3

7.8

5.0

5.7

2.1

-0.6

3-92

8.1

7.7

7.2

6.5

7.0

6.5

5.9

5.7

6.7

6.3

7.5

5.3

5.9

3.6

2.9

4-92

8.1

7.8

7.3

6.7

7.1

6.6

6.2

6.0

6.9

6.6

7.7

5.9

6.5

4.9

4.8

7.6

8.8

1-93

7.5

7.2

6.6

6.0

6.4

5.9

5.4

5.2

6.0

5.6

6.4

4.7

4.9

3.4

3.0

4.2

3.0

-2.4

2-93

7.4

7.0

6.5

6.0

6.3

5.8

5.4

5.2

5.9

5.5

6.2

4.7

4.9

3.6

3.3

4.3

3.6

1.2

4.8

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

579.3

6.5

591.6
588.0
595.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1993

Imports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-88
4-88

3.1

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

Initial Ouarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

3-90

Billions of Dollars
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

11.7

1-89

4-88

540.9
-4.8

534.3

2-89

4.0

0.4

5.8

3-89

4.6

2.4

6.2

6.5

541.9

4-89

4.4

2.6

5.2

4.9

3.3

1-90

4.6

3.2

5.3

5.1

4.4

5.6

2-90

4.7

3.6

5.3

5.2

4.8

5.5

3-90

4.2

3.1

4.5

4.2

3.7

3.8

2.9

0.5

4-90

2.6

1.5

2.4

1.9

1.0

0.4

-1.3

-4.4

550.5
555.0
562.6
5.4

570.0
570.7
557.2

-9.1

1-91

1.1

0.0

0.6

-0.1

-1.2

-2.0

-3.8

-6.7 -10.1 -11.1

2-91

2.0

1.1

1.8

1.3

0.6

0.1

-0.9

-2.4

-3.4

-0.4

11.7

541.0

3-91

2.8

2.0

2.8

2.4

1.9

1.7

1.1

0.3

0.2

3.5

11.7

11.8

4-91

3.1

2.4

3.1

2.8

2.4

2.3

1.8

1.2

1.4

4.2

9.9

9.0

6.3

1-92

3.1

2.5

3.1

2.9

2.5

2.5

2.1

1.6

1.8

4.1

8.4

7.3

5.1

556.2
571.9
580.7
586.2

3.8

2-92

3.9

3.4

4.1

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.3

3.7

6.0

9.8

9.3

8.6

9.7

15.9

3-92

4.3

3.8

4.4

4.3

4.1

4.2

4.1

3.9

4.4

6.5

9.7

9.3

8.7

9.5

12.5

9.2

608.2

4-92

4.3

3.9

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.5

6.4

9.1

8.7

8.1

8.5

10.2

7.4

5.6

1-93

4.7

4.3

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.8

4.8

5.2

6.9

9.4

9.1

8.7

9.2

10.5

8.8

8.6

11.6

2-93

5.2

4.8

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.9

7.5

9.8

9.6

9.3

9.8

11.0

9.8

10.0

12.4

13.1

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

621.8
630.3
647.9
668.1

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates. Revised from 1990.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1993

17

Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-88

4-8«

4-8«

1.6

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

-1.6

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-93

4-92

5.0

1-89

1-89

894.5
890.8

2-89

2.8

1.8

5.3

3-89

3.2

2.6

4.9

4.5

4-89

2.6

2.0

3.3

2.3

0.2

1-90

3.3

3.0

4.2

3.8

3.5

7.0

2-90

3.0

2.7

3.6

3.1

2.7

4.0

1.1

3-90

2.5

2.2

2.9

2.4

1.9

2.4

0.2

-0.6

4-90

2.9

2.6

3.3

2.9

2.6

3.3

2.1

2.6

5.8

1-91

2.9

2.7

3.2

2.9

2.7

3.2

2.2

2.6

4.3

2.8

2-91

2.«

2.5

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.9

2.1

2.3

3.3

2.1

1.4

3-91

2.4

2.1

2.5

2.2

1.9

2.2

1.4

1.5

2.0

0.7

-0.3

-2.0

4-91

1.8

1.5

1.8

1.5

1.2

1.3

0.5

0.4

0.6

-0.7

-1.8

-3.4

-4.7

1-92

1.9

1.6

1.9

1.6

1.3

1.5

0.8

0.8

1.0

0.1

-0.6

-1.3

-0.9

3.0

2-92

1.7

1.4

1.7

1.4

1.1

1.2

0.6

0.5

0.7

-0.1

-0.7

-1.2

-1.0

1.0

-1.0

3-92

1.8

1.6

1.9

1.6

1.4

1.5

0.9

0.9

1.1

0.5

0.1

-0.2

0.3

2.0

1.5

4.1

4-92

1.6

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.2

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.2

-0.1

-0.4

-0.1

1.1

0.5

1.3

-1.4

1-93

1.2

1.0

1.1

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.5

-0.9

-1.3

-1.2

-0.4

-1.3

-1.3

-3.9

-6.4

2-93

1.3

1.1

1.3

1.1

0.8

0.9

0.4

0.4

0.5

-0.1

-0.4

-0.6

-0.4

0.3

-0.2

0.0

-1.3

-1.2

4.3

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

902.3
912.2
912.6
928.1
930.6
929.2
942.4
948.9
952.3
947.6
936.2
943.1
940.7
950.2
946.9
931.3
941.1

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates. Revised from 1990.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1993

Corporate Profits
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-8°

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

3-90

Billions of Dollars
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93
378.3

4-88

15.0

1-89

2.3

-9.1

2-89

1.7

-4.4

3-89

-2.2

-7.3

-6.4 -12.9

4-89

-2.4

-6.3

-5.3

1-90

3.1

0.9

3.6

4.6

14.7

2-90

6.7

5.4

8.6

10.7

19.9

3-90

0.3

-1.6

-0.3

-0.5

2.9

4.9

-7.7 -35.0

4-90

-0.3

-2.1

-1.0

-1.3

1.2

2.3

-6.8 -21.4

-5.0

1-91

0.4

-1.1

0.0

-0.1

2.2

3.3

-3.5 -12.8

1.0

7.4

2-91

0.5

-0.8

0.2

0.1

2.1

3.0

-2.5

-9.4

1.2

4.5

3-91

-0.6

-1.9

-1.1

-1.3

0.2

0.7

-4.2 -10.0

-2.3

-1.4

4-91

1.1

0.0

0.9

1.0

2.6

3.4

-0.6

-5.0

2.5

4.4

3.4

1-92

3.3

2.5

3.5

3.8

5.6

6.7

3.5

0.1

7.6

10.3

2-92

3.2

2.4

3.4

3.6

5.3

6.2

3.3

0.3

6.7

8.8

3-92

0.2

-0.8

-0.1

-0.2

0.9

1.3

-1.6

-4.7

0.0

4-92

4.4

3.8

4.7

5.0

6.6

7.4

5.2

2.9

1-93

3.8

3.2

4.0

4.2

5.6

6.3

4.1

2-93

4.2

3.6

4.4

4.6

5.9

6.6

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

369.4
369.9

0.5

-8.2

357.3
354.5

-3.1

382.6

35.7
33.3

409.3

31.0

367.5
362.8
369.3
370.8

1.6

359.0

-5.5 -12.1

378.8

4.4

24.0

11.0

14.3

30.4

37.1

9.1

11.0

20.0

18.1

0.7

-0.3

-0.7

2.4

8.3

10.1

10.5

12.0

17.6

16.0

9.7

2.0

6.7

8.1

8.2

9.1

13.2

11.1

5.4

6.7

38.2

-6.6

4.6

2.7

7.1

8.3

8.5

9.3

12.8

11.1

6.5

7.7

28.4

1.7

10.6

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

409.9
411.7

1.8

367.5

-4.0 -19.6 -36.5

439.5

14.0 104.6

432.1

Corporate profits with capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. Second quarter data are preliminary estimates.
Revised fro« 1990




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1993

18

443.3

Gross Saving as a P ercen t of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Private Saving
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
TerminalL
Quarter
3-88

Initial Quarter
4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-93

4-92

<*-88

9.2

1-89

7.6

6.0

2-89

2.3

-0.9

-7.4

3-89

1.8

-0.6

-3.7

0.1

*-89

3.2

1.7

0.3

4.4

8.9

1-90

5.8

5.1

4.9

9.4

14.3

20.1

2-90

6.4

5.9

5.9

9.6

12.9

15.0

10.1

888.5

3-90

1.8

0.7

-0.1

1.4

1.8

-0.5

-9.4 -25.5

825.5

4-90

3.6

2.9

2.5

4.2

5.1

4.2

-0.7

-5.6

19.5

1-91

5.9

5.5

5.5

7.4

8.7

8.7

6.0

4.7

24.0

28.8

2-91

6.0

5.7

5.6

7.4

8.5

8.4

6.2

5.2

18.1

17.4

814.8
826.7
811.0
811.2
828.6
867.4

863.1
919.4
7.0

935.0

3-91

4.4

4.0

3.8

5.1

5.7

5.3

3.0

1.6

9.8

6.8

4-91

5.8

5.6

5.5

6.9

7.7

7.6

5.9

5.2

12.7

11.1

5.7

5.1

25.0

1-92

5.9

5.6

5.6

6.9

7.6

7.5

6.0

5.4

11.7

10.2

5.9

5.6

15.4

6.6

2-92

5.9

5.7

5.6

6.8

7.4

7.3

5.9

5.4

10.8

9.4

5.9

5.6

12.1

6.1

-2.8 -11.6

906.6
958.7
974.1
5.7

987.7

3-92

6.3

6.1

6.1

7.2

7.8

7.7

6.6

6.2

11.0

9.8

6.9

6.9

12.1

8.1

8.9

4-92

4.7

4.4

4.3

5.2

5.6

5.4

4.1

3.5

7.4

6.0

3.1

2.4

5.5

1.1

-0.6

1-93

5.7

5.5

5.5

6.4

6.9

6.8

5.7

5.3

9.0

7.9

5.6

5.4

8.5

5.5

5.2

5.0

1.6

2-93

4.5

4.3

4.2

4.9

5.3

5.0

3.9

3.4

6.6

5.4

3.0

2.6

4.8

1.7

0.8

-0.4

-4.3

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

12.2

1,016.5

-3.7 -17.3

969.4
24.9

1,024.8

2.9 -15.2
4-92

983.5

1-93

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates. Revised from 1990.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1993

19

B u sin ess P rodu ctivity and C om pensation
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1987

1988

1989

1990

Percent

1991

1992

1993

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector Output per Hour
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

4-88

-1.1
-0.8

-1.4

-1.0

-1.4

-0.9

-0.8

-1.1

-0.6

-0.7

-0.5

-0.7

-0.3

-0.2

0.4

2-90

-0.1

-0.2

0.3

0.5

1.1

1.6

-0.3

-0.4

-0.1

0.0

0.4

0.5

0.4

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2.6

3-90

3-91

0.0

1-90

1982 = 100
2-91

-1.4

4-89

1-91

-0.4

3-89

4-90

-2.5

2-89

3-90

0.4

1-89

2-90

110.9
110.2
110.1
109.7
109.7
0.7

109.9
110.6
110.1

-1.8

4-90

-0.4

-0.5

-0.2

-0.2

0.1

0.1

-0.1

-1.4

-1.1

1-91

-0.5

-0.6

-0.4

-0.4

-0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-1.4

-1.3

-1.4

2-91

-0.3

-0.4

-0.1

-0.1

0.1

0.1

0.0

-0.6

-0.2

0.2

1.8

3-91

-0.1

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.4

0.4

0.4

-0.1

0.4

0.9

2.0

2.2

4-91

0.1

0.1

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.9

1.4

2.3

2.6

2.9

1-92

0.4

0.4

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.0

1.4

2.0

2.8

3.2

3.7

4.4

2-92

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.1

0.9

1.3

1.8

2.4

2.5

2.7

2.5

0.7

3-92

0.6

0.6

0.9

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.6

2.0

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.0

3.2

4-92

0.8

0.8

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.8

2.2

2.7

2.8

3.0

3.0

2.5

3.4

3.6

1-93

0.7

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.1

1.4

1.7

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.0

1.4

1.7

0.9

-1.7

2-93

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.9

1.1

1.4

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.4

0.8

0.8

0.0

-1.7

-1.7

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93




109.8
109.4
109.9
110.5
111.3
112.5
112.7
113.6
114.6
114.1
113.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 10, 1993

20

Net Federal Debt
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-88

3-88

3-88

6.6
6.7

6.0

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

Initial Quarter
Dollars
3-90 4-90 1-91

2-90

Billions of
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

4.9

1-89

1-89

8.3

4-88

4-88

2,062.0
2,086.6
7.1

2,122.5

2-89

6.5

5.8

6.3

5.6

3-89

6.7

6.2

6.7

6.5

7.5

4-89

7.0

6.7

7.2

7.3

8.1

8.7

1-90

8.1

8.1

8.7

9.1

10.3

11.8

2,151.7
2,190.8
2,236.9
2,316.3

15.0

2-90

8.5

8.6

9.2

9.6

10.6

11.7

13.2

11.5

3-90

8.9

9.0

9.6

10.0

10.9

11.8

12.8

11.7

4-90

9.4

9.5

10.1

10.5

11.3

12.1

13.0

12.3

12.7

13.6

1-91

9.3

9.4

10.0

10.3

11.0

11.6

12.2

11.5

11.5

11.3

9.1

2-91

9.5

9.7

10.1

10.5

11.1

11.6

12.1

11.6

11.6

11.5

10.5

11.8

3-91

10.0

10.2

10.7

11.0

11.7

12.2

12.7

12.3

12.5

12.6

12.3

13.9

16.1

4-91

10.0

10.1

10.6

10.9

11.5

11.9

12.3

12.0

12.0

12.0

11.7

12.5

12.9

9.7

1-92

10.1

10.2

10.7

11.0

11.5

11.9

12.2

11.9

12.0

12.0

11.7

12.3

12.5

10.7

11.7

2-92

10.3

10.4

10.9

11.1

11.6

12.0

12.3

12.1

12.1

12.2

11.9

12.5

12.6

11.5

12.4

13.2

3-92

10.3

10.4

10.8

11.0

11.5

11.8

12.1

11.8

11.8

11.8

11.6

12.0

12.0

11.0

11.5

11.4

4-92

10.1

10.2

10.5

10.8

11.2

11.5

11.7

11.4

11.4

11.3

11.0

11.3

11.2

10.3

10.4

10.0

8.5

7.4

1-93

9.9

10.0

10.3

10.5

10.9

11.1

11.3

11.0

11.0

10.9

10.6

10.7

10.6

9.7

9.7

9.2

7.9

7.1

6.9

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

2,380.4
2,448.3

11.9

2,527.5
2,583.4
2,656.6
2,757.6
2,822.2
2,901.1
2,992.5
3,061.7

9.6

3,116.5
3,168.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1993

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT
(billions of dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals
Gross
federal debt

Fe d e ra l debt held
by agencies
and trusts

N et
federal debt

Fed e ral debt held
by Fe d e ra l
Re serve Banks

F e d e ra l d eb t held
b y private
investors

Fe d e ra l debt held
b y fo re ig n
in vestors

1988 March
June
September
December

2487.7
2548.8
2613.8
2673.0

499.0
528.4
552.2
584.4

1988.5
2021.2
2062.0
2086.6

220.9
227.1
232.3
231.7

1765.0
1796.5
1830.5
1855.1

331.0
343.3
348.5
363.1

1989 March
June
September
December

2738.8
2801.7
2869.3
2942.2

617.4
650.6
679.0
701.9

2122.5
2151.7
2190.8
2236.9

232.8
231.4
223.6
221.4

1886.9
1919.9
1967.3
2013.2

374.9
367.3
398.3
392.5

1990 March
June
September
December

3048.3
3146.3
3246.4
3353.0

734.2
766.9
799.0
820.6

2316.3
2380.4
2448.3
2527.5

223.9
231.1
235.5
251.3

2096.5
2153.8
2217.0
2286.0

383.8
389.3
406.9
419.9

1991 March
June
September
December

3460.5
3541.4
3680.1
3787.6

880.5
886.3
923.9
958.5

2583.4
2656.6
2757.6
2822.2

253.0
255.0
268.0
272.1

2339.8
2411.3
2500.1
2560.4

427.2
436.2
443.7
452.3

1992 March
June
September
December

3876.1
3988.9
4081.1
4160.9

978.8
998.6
1021.1
1036.0

2901.1
2992.5
3061.7
3116.5

274.0
277.0
300.1
291.7

2640.9
2727.5
2777.5
2836.6

471.6
492.2
502.1
509.4

1993 March

4226.4

1058.9

3168.6

312.7

2869.2

529.5

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original
data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.
Data have been revised to reflect changed seasonal adjustment factors.




21

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS
(billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates)
Receipts___________

Quarters

National
incom e accounts
budget

__________Expenditures__________

Cyclically
adjusted
budget

National
income accounts
budget

Su rplus or d e f i c i t ( - )

Cyclically
adjusted
budget

National
incom e accounts
budget

Cyclically
adjusted
budget

1985 1
2
3
4

797.8
758.6
794.3
803.6

819.3
780.7
811.8
822.0

947.7
964.9
976.3
990.8

953.0
964.4
991.3
1012.6

-149.9
-206.3
-182.0
-187.2

-133.7
-183.7
-179.5
-190.6

1986 1
2
3
4

809.4
814.2
828.2
856.8

816.4
832.2
852.1
875.5

992.7
1038.0
1047.9
1034.3

1001.4
1045.2
1032.4
1038.7

-183.3
- 223.8
-219.7
-177.5

-185.0
-213.0
-180.3
-163.2

1987 1
2
3
4

858.4
928.6
924.5
943.5

875.1
938.1
927.2
930.0

1048.1
1058.9
1059.0
1096.3

1057.4
1060.4
1065.6
1103.0

-189.7
-130.3
-134.5
-152.7

-182.3
-122.3
-138.4
-173.0

1988 1
2
3
4

940.5
970.4
977.8
1000.6

924.9
949.5
953.0
971.4

1098.0
1105.0
1097.3
1135.5

1098.0
1111.4
1098.2
1156.1

-157.5
-134.6
-119.5
-134.9

-173.1
-161.9
-145.2
-184.7

1989 1
2
3
4

1050.9
1064.5
1053.6
1068.3

1014.3
1032.2
1020.2
1035.4

1160.8
1174.2
1181.5
1209.8

1181.0
1187.3
1182.0
1208.2

-110.0
-109.7
-128.0
-141.5

-166.7
-155.1
-161.8
-172.8

1990 1
2
3
4

1091.3
1114.5
1123.7
1115.8

1061.7
1093.4
1116.0
1132.1

1257.8
1266.5
1268.3
1306.9

1252.2
1275.4
1273.6
1311.2

-166.4
-152.0
-144.6
-191.0

-190.5
-182.0
-157.6
-179.1

1991 1
2
3
4

1115.8
1120.3
1132.6
1142.5

1160.1
1173.7
N.A.
N.A.

1261.0
1326.5
1350.2
1387.2

1257.9
1319.3
N.A.
N.A.

-145.2
-206.2
-217.7
- 244.7

- 97.8
-145.6
N.A.
N.A.

1992 1
2
3
4

1165.9
1176.1
1169.1
1221.1

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1436.1
1456.0
1459.8
1485.3

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-270.2
-279.9
-290.7
-264.2

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1993 1
2

1218.4
1263.8

N.A.
N.A.

1481.9
1491.4

N.A.
N.A.

-263.5
-227.6

N.A.
N.A.

N.A. — Not Available
Fiscal years
A ctu al
1 985

1986

1987

1988

E stim ates
1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

Total budget

Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or deficit ( - )

$

734.1 $
946.4

$ -212.3

769.1 $ 854.1 $ 909.0 $ 990.7 $ 1031.3 $ 1054.3 $ 1090.5
990.3
1003.9
1064.1
1143.2
1252.7
1323.8
1380.9

$ -2 2 1 .2

$ -149.8 $ -1 5 5 .2

$ -1 5 2 .5

$ -2 2 1 .4

$ -2 6 9 .5

$ -2 9 0 .4

$ 1144.1 $ 1241.3
1425.2
1500.1
$-281.1

$ -2 5 8 .7

C alendar years
National income accounts
budget

Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit(-)

$ 788.6 $ 827.2 $ 913.8 $ 972.3 $ 1059.3 $ 1107.4 $ 1127.8 $ 1183.0
969.9

1028.2

$ -181.4

$ -2 0 1 .0

1065.6

1109.0

1181.6

1273.6

1331.2

1459.3

$ -151.8 $ -1 3 6 .6

$ -1 2 2 .3

$ -1 6 6 .2

$ -2 0 3 .4

$ -2 7 6 .3

Cyclically adjusted budget

Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit( - )

$ 808.5 $ 844.1 $ 917.6 $ 949.7 $ 1025.5 $ 1100.8
980.3

1029.4

$ -171.9

$ -1 8 5 .4

1071.6

1115.9

1189.6

1278.1

$ -154.0 $ -1 6 6 .2

$-164.1

$ -1 7 7 .3

Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estimates from OMB’s Mid-Session Review of the 1994 Budget (September 1, 1993).
Cyclically adjusted budget data are in process of revision.
Totals may not add due to rounding.
Source: Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis




22

G overnm ent D eficit( - ) / S u rp lu s(+ )
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

0

0

-1 0 0

-1 0 0

-1 5 0

-1 5 0

-2 0 0

-2 0 0

-2 5 0

-2 5 0

-3 0 0

-3 0 0

-3 5 0

“

1987

1988

1989

1

1 ----------- r

----------- 1
----------- r

1990

-1

----------- 1
----------- r
-1

1991

-3 5 0

1

------ —

1992

1993

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Defense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-8«
4-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

3-90

3.9

Billions of Dollars
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

296.8

1-89

-0.3

-4.4

2-89

1.9

0.9

3-89

3.8

3.8

8.2

9.9

4-89

2.3

1.9

4.1

2.9

-3.6

1-90

4.1

4.1

6.3

6.3

4.5

13.3

293.5
6.6

298.2
305.3
302.5
312.1

2-90

3.5

3.5

5.1

4.8

3.2

6.7

0.5

3-90

2.5

2.3

3.5

2.9

1.2

2.9

-1.9

-4.3

4-90

4.2

4.2

5.5

5.4

4.5

6.6

4.5

6.5

18.5

1-91

4.9

5.0

6.3

6.2

5.6

7.6

6.2

8.1

14.9

312.5
309.1
322.5
11.5

331.4

2-91

3.9

3.9

4.8

4.6

3.9

5.2

3.6

4.4

7.5

2.4

-6.0

3-91

3.0

2.9

3.7

3.4

2.6

3.5

1.9

2.2

3.9

-0.5

-6.1

-6.1

4-91

1.8

1.6

2.2

1.7

0.9

1.4

-0.2

-0.3

0.5

-3.5

-8.0

-9.0 -11.9

1-92

1.7

1.6

2.1

1.7

0.9

1.4

0.0

0.0

0.7

-2.5

-5.8

-5.7

-5.5

1.4

2-92

1.5

1.3

1.7

1.3

0.6

1.0

-0.2

-0.3

0.2

-2.5

-5.1

-4.9

-4.5

-0.5

-2.4

3-92

1.9

1.7

2.2

1.9

1.2

1.7

0.6

0.6

1.2

-1.0

-3.0

-2.4

-1.4

2.4

2.8

8.4

4-92

1.7

1.6

2.0

1.6

1.0

1.4

0.4

0.4

0.9

-1.1

-2.7

-2.2

-1.4

1.4

1.5

3.4

1-93

0.8

0.6

0.9

0.6

0.0

0.2

-0.8

-0.9

-0.6

-2.5

-4.1

-3.8

-3.4

-1.6

-2.4

2-93

1.0

0.8

1.1

0.8

0.2

0.5

-0.4

-0.5

-0.1

-1.8

-3.2

-2.8

-2.4

-0.7

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

326.3
321.2
311.2
312.3
310.4
316.7
-1.3

315.7

-2.4

-7.4 -13.1

304.8

-1.1

-0.7

-3.6

-4.8

4.4

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

308.1

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates. Revised from 1990.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1993

23

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

Subscriber:
Please include address label with
subscription inquiries or address changes.

Federal Nondefense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

3-90

Billions of Dollars
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93
838.7

4-8«

18.8

1-89

16.6

14.4

2-89

12.2

9.1

4.1

3-89

9.1

6.0

2.1

0.1

4-89

10.2

8.2

6.2

7.3

15.0

1-90

11.5

10.1

9.0

10.7

16.5

18.0

867.3
876.0
876.2
907.3
945.7
954.0

2-90

10.3

9.0

7.9

8.9

12.0

10.6

3.6

3-90

9.3

8.0

6.9

7.5

9.5

7.7

2.9

2.2

4-90

9.5

8.3

7.5

8.1

9.8

8.5

5.5

6.5

1-91

6.0

4.7

3.5

3.5

4.0

2.0

-1.7

-3.4

2-91

8.3

7.3

6.5

6.9

7.9

6.7

4.6

4.8

3-91

8.6

7.7

7.1

7.4

8.4

7.5

5.8

4-91

9.4

8.7

8.2

8.6

9.6

8.9

7.7

1-92

10.1

9.4

9.0

9.5

10.5

10.0

2-92

9.9

9.3

8.9

9.4

10.2

3-92

9.2

8.6

8.2

8.5

4-92

9.2

8.7

8.3

1-93

8.9

8.3

2-93

8.5
3-88

959.2
984.4

10.9

929.6

-6.1 -20.5

1,000.2

5.7

3.2

34.0

6.2

7.3

6.1

22.5

12.0

8.4

9.6

9.3

21.5

15.7

19.6

9.0

9.8

11.1

11.2

20.9

16.8

19.3

19.0

9.8

8.9

9.6

10.7

10.6

18.2

14.5

15.4

13.4

8.0

9.3

8.8

7.9

8.4

9.2

8.9

14.8

11.3

11.1

8.4

3.5

-0.9

8.6

9.3

8.8

8.0

8.5

9.2

9.0

14.0

11.0

10.8

8.7

5.5

4.2

9.6

7.9

8.2

8.8

8.3

7.6

7.9

8.5

8.3

12.5

9.8

9.4

7.4

4.7

3.7

6.0

2.6

7.9

7.6

7.8

8.3

7.9

7.1

7.4

7.9

7.6

11.3

8.8

8.3

6.5

4.2

3.3

4.7

2.4

2.1

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

1,029.0
1,076.0
1,123.8
1,145.6
1,143.1
1,169.6
1,177.1
1,183.3

Second quarter data are preliminary estimates. Revised from 1990.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 31, 1993

24


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102