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September 1992

National
Economic
Trends
Has Economic Growth
Accelerated?
Productivity growth, the principal impetus to a higher
standard o f living, nearly came to a halt from 1986 to
1991. A key measure of productivity, business sector
output per hour, rose at only a 0.1 percent annual rate
from m id-1986 to m id-1991. In the past year, however,
this hiatus ended as productivity rose 2.6 percent, its
largest annual increase since early 1986. Productivity
is cyclical, rising with cyclical increases in labor and
< apital services like a rising capacity utilization rate
a falling unemployment rate. Since these measures
/v e changed little for the past year, recent productivity
gains appear to mark a significant shift in the trend of
economic growth.
The recent period of stagnant productivity growth
followed the 1986 Tax Reform Act, which substantially
raised taxes on capital income. This act ended the
investment tax credit, lengthened depreciation schedules
and raised the capital gains tax rate. These changes
raised firms’ cost o f capital services, which, in turn,
lowered the efficient mix o f capital use relative to the
use of labor services. Temporarily, investment in plant
and equipment declined to adjust the existing capital
stock to the lower demand for capital services. The
adjustment to such changes usually lasts several
years. In the 1986 case, investment fell sharply: real
nonresidential fixed investment fell from a record high
of 12.2 percent o f real GDP in 1985 to 11.1 percent at
the business cycle peak in DI/1990 and declined further
during the recent recession, reaching 10.2 percent by

the end of 1991. The share rose to 10.5 percent in
11/1992, providing some indication that this adjustment
process may have ended.
The recent experience was worse than the earlier
and better-known episode from the end of 1973 to the
second quarter of 1981, when productivity rose at a
0.6 percent rate. This episode was associated with two
oil price shocks, which reduced the nation’s economic
capacity by altering production methods and reducing
the pace of of capital formation. Changes in tax policy
in 1981 created stronger incentives to invest, encour­
aging firms to change production methods to employ
more plant and equipment per worker. Partly as a
result, productivity growth climbed to a 1.7 percent
rate from 11/1981 to 11/1986.
Despite the adjustment o f the nation’s capital stock
and productivity to the 1986 tax changes, productivity
growth was still substantially higher for the past 11
years than during the earlier period of stagnation. From
n/1981 to 11/1992, it rose at a 1.1 percent rate, almost
twice as fast as during the 1973-81 period. The recent
surge in productivity growth suggests that the adjust­
ment to higher taxes is ending and that economic
growth has resumed; it could also put to rest concern
about a return to the dismal performance of the 1970s.
— John A. Tatom

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by
writing Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8809.




C o n su m er P rice In dex - All U rban C on su m ers
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month
12-90
1-91

3.2

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

1982-84=100

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-9 2

5-92

6-92
134.7

4.6

2-91

Initial Mo n t h
1-91

134.9

1.8

135.1

3-91

2.7

1.8

1.8

4-91

2.7

2.1

2.2

2.7

5-91

2.7

2.2

2.4

2.7

2.7

6-91

2.9

2.5

2.7

3.0

3.1

3.6

135.4
135.7
136.1
136.2

7-91

2.6

2.2

2.3

2.5

2.4

2.2

0.9

8-91

2.7

2.4

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.2

3.6

9-91

2.9

2.7

2.8

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.0

4.0

10-91

2.9

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.0

2.9

3.6

3.6

2.7

11-91

3.0

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.2

3.8

3.9

3.6

4.5

12-91

3.0

2.8

2.9

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.6

3.6

3.2

3.5

2.6

1-92

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.8

3.1

3.0

2.6

2.6

1.8

0.9

2-92

2.9

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.9

3.0

2.9

3.2

3.1

2.8

2.9

2.3

2.2

3.5

3-92

3.1

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.5

3.3

3.5

4.9

6.2

4-92

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.4

3.2

3.3

4.1

4.4

136.6
4.5

137.1
137.4
137.9
138.2
138.3
138.7
139.4
2.6

139.7

5-92

3.0

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.1

2.9

3.0

3.5

3.5

2.2

1.7

6-92

3.0

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.3

3.3

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.5

3.5

2.6

2.6

3.5

7-92

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.2

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.9

3.2

3.1

2.4

2.3

2.6

1.7

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-9 2

5-92

6-92




139.9
140.3
140.5

Pr e p a r e d by Federal R e s e r v e Ban k of St. Louis
A u gust 14, 1992

2

Consumer Price Index - Food
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Month
12-90

Initial Month
1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

1982-84=100

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92
135.4

1-91

4.5

2-91

1.8

-0.9

3-91

2.4

1.3

3.6

4-91

3.4

3.0

5.0

6.4

5-91

3.2

2.9

4.2

4.5

2.7

6-91

3.6

3.4

4.5

4.8

4.0

7-91

2.2

1.8

2.3

2.0

0.6

-0.4

-5.9

8-91

1.6

1.1

1.5

1.1

-0.2

-1.2

-4.3

135.3
135.7
136.4
136.7
5.4

137.3
136.6
-2.6

136.3

9-91

1.6

1.2

1.5

1.2

0.2

-0.4

-2.3

-0.4

1.8

10-91

1.3

1.0

1.2

0.9

0.0

-0.5

-2.0

-0.6

0.4

-0.9

136.5

11-91

1.7

1.4

1.7

1.4

0.8

0.4

-0.5

0.9

2.1

2.2

5.4

12-91

1.9

1.6

1.9

1.7

1.1

0.9

0.1

1.4

2.4

2.7

4.5

3.6

1-92

1.3

1.0

1.2

1.0

0.4

0.1

-0.6

0.3

0.9

0.7

1.2

-0.9

-5.1

2-92

1.5

1.2

1.4

1.2

0.7

0.5

-0.1

0.8

1.3

1.2

1.8

0.6

-0.9

3.6

3-92

1.8

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.2

1.1

0.6

1.4

2.0

2.1

2.7

2.0

1.5

4.9

6.3

4-92

1.6

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.0

0.9

0.4

1.2

1.7

1.6

2.1

1.4

0.9

3.0

2.7

-0.9

5-92

1.3

1.1

1.2

1.0

0.6

0.4

0.0

0.6

1.0

0.9

1.1

0.4

-C.2

1.1

0.3

-2.6

-4.3

6-92

1.3

1.1

1.2

1.1

0.7

0.5

0.1

0.7

1.1

1.0

1.2

0.6

0.1

1.2

0.7

-1.2

-1.3

1.8

7-92

1.1

0.9

1.0

0.9

0.5

0.4

0.0

0.5

0.8

0.7

0.9

0.3

-0.1

0.7

0.2

-1.3

-1.4

0.0

-1.7

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

136.4
137.0
137.4
136.8
137.2
137.9
137.8
137.3
137.5
137.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August IS, 1992

Consumer Price Index - Energy
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Teminal
Month
12-90

Initial Mo n t h
1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

1982-84=100

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3 -92

4-92

5-92

6-92
107.8

1-91

-25.7

2-91

-31.7 -37.2

103.7

3-91

-29.4 -31.1 -24.5

101.3

4-91

-23.9 -23.2 -15.1

5-91

-18.8 -17.0

-8.9

0.0

6-91

-16.3 -14.3

-7.3

-0.8

1.2

-2.3

7-91

-14.9 -12.9

-7.0

-2.1

-1.2

-4.1

-5.8

8-91

-12.4 -10.3

-4.8

-0.2

0.9

-0.4

0.6

7.4

9-91

-10.8

-8.8

-3.8

0.2

1.2

0.3

1.2

4.9

2.4

10-91

-9.8

-7.8

-3.3

0.2

1.0

0.2

0.9

3.2

1.2

0.0

11-91

-8.2

-6.2

-1.9

1.3

2.2

1.8

2.6

4.8

4.0

4.8

9.9

12-91

-7.4

-5.6

-1.6

1.3

2.1

1.7

2.4

4.1

3.3

3.6

5.4

1-92

-8.1

-6.5

-3.0

-0.6

-0.1

-0.7

-0.5

0.4

-0.9

-1.8

-2.3

-7.9 -16.2

2-92

-8.3

-6.8

-3.7

-1.5

-1.2

-1.8

-1.8

-1.2

-2.6

-3.5

-4.4

-8.7 -13.3 -10.2

3-92

-7.3

-5.8

-2.9

-0.8

-0.4

-0.9

-0.8

-0.1

-1.2

-1.8

-2.1

-4.9

4-92

-6.6

-5.2

-2.3

-0.4

0.0

-0.4

-0.2

0.4

-0.4

-0.8

-1.0

0.2

0.5

0.2

0.4

1.1

0.4

0.1

0.2

100.9

-4.6
4.9

101.3
101.1
100.6
101.2
101.4
101.4
102.2
102.3

1.2

100.8
99.9
100.5

-6.9

-1.8

7.5

-3.0

-4.0

0.4

6.2

4.9

-1.4

-1.9

2.1

6.6

6.1

7.4

100.9

5-92

-5.8

-4.4

-1.7

6-92

-4.3

-2.8

-0.1

1.7

2.2

2.0

2.4

3.1

2.7

2.8

3.1

2.2

2.4

6.5

11.2

12.5

16.5

26.4

7-92

-3.9

-2.5

0.1

1.8

2.3

2.1

2.5

3.2

2.8

2.8

3.2

2.4

2.5

6.0

9.6

10.2

12.0

14.4

3.5

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3 -92

4-92

5-92

6-92




101.5
103.5
103.8

Prepa r e d by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Augu s t 13, 1992

P ro d u c er P ric e In dex - F in ish ed Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1986

1987

1988

1989

Percent

1990

1991

1992

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month
12-90

Initial Mon t h
1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

1982 = 100

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

1-91

3.0

2-91

-2.4

-7.6

3-91

-2.9

-5.7

-3.9

4-91

-1.7

-3.2

-1.0

2.0

5-91

-1.0

-1.9

0.0

2.0

2.0

6-91

-1.1

-1.9

-0.5

0.7

0.0

-2.0

7-91

-1.3

-2.0

-0.8

0.0

-0.7

-2.0

-2.0

8-91

-0.7

-1.3

-0.2

0.6

0.2

-0.3

0.5

3.0

9-91

-0.3

-0.7

0.3

1.0

0.8

0.5

1.3

3.0

3.0

10-91

0.0

-0.3

0.6

1.3

1.2

1.0

1.7

3.0

3.0

3.0

11-91

0.1

-0.2

0.7

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.6

2.5

2.3

2.0

1.0

12-91

0.0

-0.3

0.5

1.0

0.9

0.7

1.2

1.8

1.5

1.0

0.0

-1.0

1-92

-0.2

-0.4

0.3

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.7

1.2

0.8

0.2

-0.7

-1.5

-1.9

2-92

0.1

-0.2

0.5

0.9

0.8

0.7

1.0

1.4

1.2

0.8

0.2

0.0

0.5

3.0

3-92

0.2

0.0

0.6

1.0

0.9

0.8

1.1

1.5

1.3

1.0

0.6

0.5

1.0

2.5

4-92

0.2

0.1

0.6

1.0

0.9

0.8

1.1

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.7

0.6

1.0

2.0

1.5

1.0

5-92

0.5

0.4

0.9

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.3

1.8

2.7

2.6

3.0

5.0

6-92

0.7

0.5

1.0

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.6

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.5

2.0

2.8

2.7

3.0

4.0

3.0

7-92

0.7

0.5

1.0

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.8

2.5

2.4

2.5

3.0

2.0

1.0

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

122.4
121.6




121.2
121.4
121.6
121.4
121.2
121.5
121.8

4

122.1
122.2
122.1
121.9
122.2
2.0

122.4
122.5
123.0
123.3
123.4

Pr e pared by Federal R eservQ Bank of St. Louis
August 12, 1992

C ivilian E m p lo y m e n t and U n e m p lo y m e n t R ate
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Millions of Persons

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
12-90
1-91

Thousands of
Persons

Initial Month
1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92
108,845

-2.8

2-91

-3.0
-2.7

-2.7

108,557

-3.1

3-91

-2.3

108,344
108,178

4-91

-2.5

-2.4

-2.1

-1.8

5-91

-1.8

-1.6

-1.1

-0.4

1.0

6-91

-1.6

-1.4

-0.9

-0.4

0.3

-0.4

7-91

-1.4

-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

-0.4

-0.4

8-91

-1.1

-0.9

-0.5

-0.2

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.9

9-91

-1.0

-0.8

-0.4

-0.1

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.6

0.3

10-91

-0.9

-0.7

-0.4

-0.1

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.1

-0.1

11-91

-1.0

-0.8

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.1

-0.5

-0.9

-1.6

12-91

-0.9

-0.7

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.5

-0.7

0.2

1-92

-0.8

-0.7

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.5

-0.7

-0.2

-0.6

108,265
108,227
108,190
108,267
108,293
108,285
108,139
108,154
108,100
108,142

2-92

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

0.0

-0.1

0.5

3-92

-0.7

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.0

-0.1

0.0

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

0.2

0.2

0.6

0.6

4-92

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.5

0.6

1.0

1.3

2.0

5-92

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.7

0.8

1.1

1.3

1.7

1.3

6-92

-0.4

-0.3

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.3

-0.7

-0.3

-0.1

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

2.2

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

6-92

7-92




108,200
108,377
108,496

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.2

0.9

0.7

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-9 2

5-92

0.4

0.4

0.7

108,433
108,631

P r e p a r e d by Federal Rese r v e Bank of St. Louis
A u g u s t 7, 1992

P a y ro ll E m p lo y m e n t
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

Millions of Persons

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

1-91

-2.8

2-91

-3.0
-2.7

-2.7

-2.5

-2.4

-2.1

-1.8

-1.6

-1.1

-0.4

1.0

6-91

-1.6

-1.4

-0.9

-0.4

0.3

-1.4

-1.2

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

-0.4

-1.1

-0.9

-0.5

-0.2

0.2

0.0

0.2

-1.0

-0.8

-0.4

-0.1

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.6

6-92

0.9

9-91

5-92

-0.4

8-91

4-92

-0.4

7-91

3-9 2

-1.8

5-91

2-92

-2.3

4-91

T h ousands of
1-92

-3.1

3-91

Initial Ho n t h
P ersons
8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91
108,845

108,557
108,344
108,178
108,265
108,227
108,190
108,267
0.3

108,293

10-91

-0.9

-0.7

-0.4

-0.1

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.1

-0.1

11-91

-1.0

-0.8

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.1

-0.5

-0.9

-1.6

12-91

-0.9

-0.7

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.5

-0.7

0.2

1-92

-0.8

-0.7

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.5

-0.7

-0.2

-0.6

2-92

-0.8

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.4

0.0

-0.1

108,285
108,139
108,154
108,100
108,142

0.5

3-92

-0.7

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.0

-0.1

0.0

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

0.2

0.2

0.6

0.6

4-92

-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.5

0.6

1.0

1.3

2.0

5-92

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.7

0.8

1.1

1.3

1.7

1.3

6-92

-0.4

-0.3

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.3

-0.7

7-92

-0.3

-0.1

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.2

0.9

0.7

2.2

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3 -92

4 -92

5-9 2

6-92




6

108,200
108,377
108,496
108,433
108,631.

P r e p a r e d by F ederal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis
A u g u s t 7, 1992

Service-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terainal
M onth
12-90

Thousands of
Persons

Initial Month
1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92
84,650

1-91

-1.0

2-91

-1.7

-2.4

3-91

-1.5

-1.7

-1.0

4-91

-1.4

-1.6

-1.1

-1.2

5-91

-0.9

-0.9

-0.4

0.0

1.2

6-91

-0.7

-0.7

-0.2

0.1

0.7

0.2

7-91

-0.7

-0.6

-0.2

0.0

0.4

0.0

-0.3

8-91

-0.4

-0.4

0.0

0.2

0.6

0.4

0.4

1.1

84,476
84,406
84,318
84,401
84,418
84,398
84,476

9-91

-0.3

-0.2

0.1

0.3

0.6

0.5

0.6

1.0

0.9

10-91

-0.2

-0.1

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.5

0.6

0.9

0.7

0.6

11-91

-0.3

-0.2

0.1

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.5

0.2

-0.1

-0.8

12-91

-0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.3

0.2

-0.1

0.6

1-92

-0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.0

0.3

0.0

2-92

-0.1

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.3

84,538
84,581
84,526
84,570
84,573
84,617

0.6

84,668

3-92

-0.1

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.5

0.5

0.7

0.7

4-92

0.1

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.9

1.0

1.3

1.6

2.6

5-92

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.7

0.7

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.6

2.0

1.4

6-92

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.3

1.4

0.9

0.4

7-92

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.9

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.9

1.6

1.7

3.1

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-9 2

4-92

5-92

6-92

84,847
84,948
84,973
85.188

P r e pared by F ederal R eserve Bank of St. Louis
August 7 , 1992

Goods-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terainal
Mo n t h
12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

Initial M o n t h
Persons
8-91 9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-91

-7.1
-7.0

-6.2

-6.3

-5.4

-5.4

-5.0

-4.0

-3.6

-1.8

-4.6

-3.8

-3.4

-2.1

-1.3

-2.7

7-91

-4.1

-3.3

-2.9

-1.8

-1.1

-1.8

-0.9

8-91

-3.6

-2.8

-2.4

-1.5

-0.9

-1.2

-0.5

-0.1

9-91

-3.4

-2.7

-2.3

-1.5

-1.1

-1.4

-0.9

-0.9

-1.8

10-91

-3.3

-2.7

-2.3

-1.7

-1.3

-1.6

-1.3

-1.5

-2.2

-2.5

6-92

0.2

6-91

5-92

-3.8

5-91

4 -92

-6.9

4-91

3 -92

-5.5

3-91

2-92

-8.7

2-91

Thousands of
1-92

24,195
24,081
23,938
23,860
23,864
23,809
23,792
23,791
23,755
23,704

11-91

-3.4

-2.9

-2.6

-2.0

-1.8

-2.1

-2.0

-2.2

-3.0

-3.5

-4.5

12-91

-3.3

-2.8

-2.5

-2.0

-1.7

-2.0

-1.9

-2.1

-2.6

-2.8

-3.0

-1.5

1-92

-3.2

-2.8

-2.5

-2.1

-1.9

-2.1

-2.0

-2.2

-2.6

-2.9

-3.0

-2.2

-2.9

2-92

-3.0

-2.6

-2.3

-1.9

-1.7

-1.9

-1.8

-1.9

-2.2

-2.3

-2.2

-1.5

-1.5

-0.1

3-92

-2.8

-2.4

-2.1

-1.7

-1.5

-1.7

-1.5

-1.6

-1.9

-1.9

-1.7

-1.0

-0.9

0.1

0.4

4-92

-2.6

-2.2

-2.0

-1.6

-1.4

-1.5

-1.4

-1.5

-1.6

-1.6

-1.5

-0.8

-0.7

0.1

0.1

-0.1

5-92

-2.4

-2.0

-1.8

-1.4

-1.2

-1.3

-1.2

-1.2

-1.4

-1.3

-1.1

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.9

6-92

-2.5

-2.2

-1.9

-1.6

-1.4

-1.6

-1.5

-1.5

-1.7

-1.7

-1.5

-1.1

-1.0

-0.7

-0.8

-1.2

-1.8

-4.4

7-92

-2.4

-2.1

-1.9

-1.6

-1.4

-1.5

-1.4

-1.5

-1.6

-1.6

-1.5

-1.1

-1.0

-0.7

-0.8

-1.1

-1.5

-2.6

-0.9

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3 -92

4-92

5 -92

6-92




23,613
23,584
23,527
23,525
23,532
23,530
23,548
23,460
23.443

P r e p a r e d by F ederal R eserve Bank of St. Louis
August 7 , 1992

C hange in th e E m p lo y m e n t C ost In dex and Its C o m p o n en ts
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total compensation is the sum of benefits and wages and salaries for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Q uarter

Initial Q uarter
3-8 7

4-8 7

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-8S

1-89

4-87

4.4
4.6

5.2

4.4

4.7

4.5

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.4

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.5

4.8

4.5

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.6

4.3

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.7

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

4.1

3-89

4-90

4.6

2-89

3-90

5.1

1-89

June 1989 * 100
2-90

3.8

4-88

1-90

5.2

3-88

4 -89

5.2

2-88

3-89

3.5

1-88

2-89

93.3
94.5
95.7
96.6
97.8
98.9
99.9
5.3

101.2

4-89

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.7

5.1

4.8

1-90

4.7

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.9

5.0

5.2

5.2

5.6

2-90

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.9

4.8

4.9

5.1

5.0

5.1

4.7

3-90

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.9

4.8

4.9

5.0

4.9

5.0

4.7

4.7

4-90

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.2

3.8

1-91

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.9

2-91

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.7

4.5

3-91

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.5

4.3

4.1

102.4
103.8
105.0
106.2
107.2
108.5
109.7
110.8

4-91

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.2

4.1

4.0

1-92

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.1

4.0

4.0

4.0

2-92

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.1

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.2

2.5

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-fifi

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

111.9
113.0
113.7

Data are for the last aonth of quarter




Prepa r e d by Federal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis
July 28, 1992

8

In d u str ia l P r o d u c tio n
Seasonally Adjusted
1 9 8 7 -1 0 0

1987=100

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terainal
Mo n t h
12-90

Initial M o n t h
1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

1987 = 100

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-9 2

4-9 2

5-92

6-92

1-91

-6.5

2-91

-8.1

-9.7

3-91

-8.0

-8.7

-7.7

4-91

-4.7

-4.1

-1.1

5.9

5-91

-1.8

-0.6

2.7

8.3

10.7

6-91

0.2

1.6

4.6

9.1

10.7

10.6

7-91

1.4

2.8

5.5

9.1

10.2

10.0

9.3

8-91

1.1

2.3

4.4

7.0

7.3

6.2

4.0

-1.1

9-91

1.5

2.5

4.4

6.6

6.7

5.7

4.2

1.7

4.5

10-91

1.3

2.3

3.9

5.6

5.6

4.6

3.1

1.1

2.2

0.0

11-91

0.9

1.7

3.0

4.5

4.3

3.2

1.8

0.0

0.4

-1.6

-3.3

12-91

0.2

0.8

1.9

3.1

2.7

1.6

0.2

-1.5

-1.7

-3.6

-5.4

-7.5

1-92

-0.5

0.0

0.9

1.8

1.4

0.3

-1.1

-2.8

-3.1

-4.9

-6.5

-8.0

-8.6

2-92

0.0

0.5

1.4

2.3

1.9

1.0

-0.1

-1.4

-1.5

-2.6

-3.3

-3.3

-1.1

7.0

3-92

0.3

0.8

1.7

2.5

2.2

1.4

0.4

-0.7

-0.6

-1.5

-1.8

-1.4

0.7

5.8

4.6

4-92

0.6

1.1

1.9

2.7

2.5

1.7

0.9

0.0

0.1

-0.5

-0.6

0.0

2.0

5.7

5.1

5.7

5-92

1.1

1.6

2.4

3.2

3.0

2.3

1.6

0.9

1.1

0.7

0.8

1.5

3.4

6.6

6.5

7.5

9.3

6-92

0.8

1.3

2.0

2.7

2.4

1.8

1.1

0.4

0.6

0.1

0.1

0.6

2.1

4.3

3.7

3.4

2.2

-4.3

7-92

1.0

1.4

2.1

2.8

2.6

2.0

1.4

0.7

0.9

0.6

0.6

1.1

2.4

4.4

3.8

3.7

3.0

0.0

4.5

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3 -92

4-92

5-9 2

6-92

106.6
105.7




105.0
105.5
106.4
107.3
108.1
108.0
108.4
108.4
108.1
107.4
106.6
107.2
107.6
108.1
108.9
108.5
108.9

Pre p a r e d b y Fed e r a l R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis
A u gust 14, 1992

9

P e r so n a l In co m e in 1987 D ollars
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

4.4

4.0

3.6

3.2

2.8
1987

1986

1988

1991

1990

1989

1992

The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month
12-90

Initial Month
1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
6-92
3 ,4 8 9 . 3

1-91

-15.4

2-91

-9.1

-2.3

3-91

-4.9

0.9

4.1

4-91

-3.6

0.7

2.2

0.3

5-91

-2.1

1.5

2.8

2.1

4.0

6-91

-1.4

1.7

2.7

2.3

3.3

2.5

7-91

-1.3

1.2

1.9

1.4

1.8

0.7

-1.2

8-91

-1.1

1.2

1.7

1.3

1.5

0.7

-0.2

0.8

9-91

-1.0

0.9

1.4

1.0

1.1

0.4

-0.3

0.2

-0.5

10-91

-0.4

1.4

1.9

1.6

1.8

1.4

1.1

1.8

2.4

5.3

11-91

-0.8

0.8

1.2

0.8

0.9

0.4

0.0

0.3

0.1

0.4

-4.3

12-91

0.4

2.0

2.4

2.2

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.9

3.4

4.8

4.5

14.2

1-92

0.3

1.7

2.1

1.9

2.1

1.8

1.7

2.2

2.5

3.3

2.6

6.3

-1.1

2-92

0.7

2.0

2.4

2.2

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.7

3.1

3.8

3.4

6.1

2.3

5.8

3-92

1.0

2.3

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.6

3.1

3.4

4.1

3.8

6.0

3.4

5.6

5.5

4-92

0.8

1.9

2.3

2.1

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.4

2.6

3.1

2.7

4.2

1.8

2.8

1.4

-2.5

5-92

0.8

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.4

2.6

3.0

2.6

3.9

1.9

2.7

1.7

-0.2

2.2

6-92

0.8

1.8

2.1

2.0

2.1

1.9

1.9

2.2

2.3

2.6

2.3

3.3

1.6

2.1

1.2

-0.2

1.0

-0.1

7-92

0.8

1.8

2.0

1.9

2.0

1.9

1.8

2.1

2.2

2.5

2.2

3.0

1.5

1.9

1.2

0.2

1.1

0.5

1.2

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-9 2

5-92

6-92

3 ,4 8 2 . 5




3,4 9 4 . 3
3,4 9 5 . 2
3,5 0 6 . 6
3,5 1 3 . 9
3,510.4
3,51 2 . 7
3 ,5 1 1 . 3
3 ,526.4
3 ,513.4
3,552.5
3,54 9 . 3
3,56 5 . 9
3,58 1 . 9
3 ,574.2
3 ,580.6
3 ,580.2
3 ,583.7

Pr e p a r e d by Federal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis
Augu s t 28, 1992

10

R eta il S ales
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

170

150

130

110

90
1986

1987

1988

1990

1989

1991

1992

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Retail Sales in 1982-84 Dollar:
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Month
12-90

Initial Month
1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-9 2

5-92

6-92

1-91

-21.9

2-91

-1.6

24.0

3-91

1.5

15.7

8.0

4-91

-0.7

7.5

0.1

-7.2

5-91

1.5

8.4

3.6

1.5

11.0

6-91

0.6

5.9

1.8

-0.2

3.4

-3.6

7-91

0.6

4.9

1.4

-0.1

2.3

-1.8

8-91

-0.9

2.5

-0.7

-2.3

-1.1

-4.8

-5.4 -10.5

9-91

-0.8

2.2

-0.6

-2.0

-0.9

-3.7

-3.7

-5.6

-0.4

10-91

-0.8

1.8

-0.6

-1.8

-0.9

-3.1

-3.0

-4.0

-0.6

-0.8

11-91

-1.5

0.8

-1.5

-2.6

-1.9

-3.9

-4.0

-5.0

-3.0

-4.3

-7.8

12-91

-1.5

0.7

-1.4

-2.4

-1.8

-3.5

-3.5

-4.2

-2.6

-3.3

-4.5

-1.1

1-92

0.7

2.8

1.1

0.4

1.3

0.2

0.7

0.8

3.2

4.2

5.8

13.4

30.0

2-92

1.4

3.5

1.9

1.4

2.3

1.4

2.0

2.3

4.6

5.7

7.3

12.9

20.6

3-92

0.0

1.8

0.2

-0.4

0.2

-0.8

-0.5

-0.5

1.0

1.2

1.6

4.1

5.9

-4.4 -18.3

4-92

0.1

1.7

0.3

-0.3

0.3

-0.6

-0.3

-0.3

1.0

1.2

1.6

3.5

4.7

-2.5

-9.0

1.3

5-92

0.3

1.9

0.5

0.0

0.6

-0.2

0.1

0.1

1.3

1.6

1.9

3.6

4.6

-1.0

-4.9

2.6

3.8

6-92

-0.1

1.3

0.1

-0.4

0.1

-0.7

-0.5

-0.5

0.5

0.6

0.8

2.1

2.6

-2.1

-5.4

-0.6

-1.5

-6.7

7-92

0.1

1.5

0.3

-0.1

0.4

-0.4

-0.1

-0.1

0.9

1.0

1.2

2.4

2.9

-1.0

-3.4

0.7

0.5

-1.1

4.7

12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-9 2

4-92

5-92

Millions of
Dollars

6-92

110,973
112,980
113,710
113,005
113,991
113,644
0.1

113,654
112,605
112,567
112,496
111,742
111,635
114,106
11.9

115,179
113,252
113,375
113,732
113,081
113,516

Retail sales d ata deflated by CPI-U (1982-84=100).




P r e p a r e d by F ederal Rese r v e Bank of St. Louis
A u g u s t 13, 1992

11

In v e n to r ie s C om pared With M onthly S a les
Manufacturing and Trade
Seasonally Adjusted

1.58

1.54

1.50

1.50

1.46

1.46

i------ 1 ----- 1
------------ 1
------ 1
------ 1
------------ 1
------ 1
------r

1986

1987

1988

1989

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terninal
Month
11-90 12-90

Initial Honth
1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

12-90

-0.1
-1.2

1.8

3-91

-4.0

-2.9

-3.5

-2.7

-5.8

-6.9

-4.0

-3.4

-5.9

-6.7

-4.0

-4.1

-3.6

-5.7

-6.2

-4.3

-5.5

-3.8

-3.3

-5.0

-5.3

-3.6

-4.2

-3.3

-1.5

8-91

-3.4

-2.9

-4.3

-4.4

-2.9

-3.1

-2.1

-0.7

5-92

-5.0

7-91

4-92

-6.1

6-91

3-92

-1.9

5-91

2-92

-7.7 -11.7

4-91

1-92

7.4

2-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

-7.0

1-91

8-91

0.2

Mil l i o n s of
Dollars
835,985
840,981

-3.5

838,491
829,818
828,508
824,177
820,671
819,641
819,746

9-91

-2.7

-2.2

-3.3

-3.3

-1.8

-1.8

-0.6

0.8

2.0

4.0

10-91

-2.1

-1.6

-2.6

-2.5

-1.1

-0.9

0.1

1.5

2.5

3.7

3.4

11-91

-1.9

-1.4

-2.2

-2.1

-0.8

-0.6

0.3

1.4

2.2

2.8

2.3

1.2

12-91

-1.4

-0.9

-1.7

-1.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.8

1.8

2-5

3.1

2.8

2.6

4.0

8 22,401
824,672
825,505
828,184

1-92

-1.7

-1.3

-2.0

-1.9

-0.8

-0.7

0.0

0.7

1.1

1.3

0.6

-0.3

-1.0

-5.7

2-92

-1.6

-1.2

-1.8

-1.7

-0.7

-0.6

0.1

0.7

1.0

1.2

0.6

0.0

-0.4

-2.6

0.7

3-92

-1.3

-0.9

-1.5

-1.4

-0.4

-0.3

0.3

0.9

1.2

1.4

0.9

0.4

0.3

-1.0

1.5

2.3

4-92

-1.0

-0.7

-1.2

-1.0

-0.1

0.0

0.6

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.3

1.0

0.9

0.2

2.2

3.0

3.6

5-92

-1.0

-0.7

-1.2

-1.0

-0.2

-0.1

0.5

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.0

0.7

0.6

0.0

1.4

1.7

1.3

-0.9

6-92

-0.6

-0.2

-0.6

-0.5

0.3

0.5

1.0

1.5

1.8

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.3

2.7

3.2

3.5

3.5

8.0

11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

8-91

9-91 10-91 11-91 12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92




824,150
824,609
826,204
828,630
828,032
8 33,372

Pr e p a r e d by Federal R e s e r v e Bank of St. L ouis
Au g u s t 14, 1992

12

Gross D o m estic P r o d u c t
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-87

4.3
4.3

3.5

3.8

3.2

3.4

3.8

3.3

3.6

3.2

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

3.9

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

B i l l i o n s of Dol l a r s
Annual R ates
1-92

2.5

4-88

3-89

4.3

3-88

2-89

2.6

2-88

1-89

5.9

1-88

4-88

4,625.5
4,6 5 5 . 3
4,704.8
4,7 3 4 . 5
4,779.7

1-89

3.7

3.3

3.5

3.2

3.5

3.2

2-89

3.5

3.1

3.1

2.9

3.0

2.5

1.8

3-89

3.0

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.2

1.7

0.9

0.0

4-89

2.8

2.5

2.4

2.1

2.1

1.6

1.1

0.7

1.5

1-90

2.8

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.2

1.9

1.5

1.4

2.2

2-90

2.7

2.4

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.7

1.4

1.3

1.8

1.9

1.0

3-90

2.3

2.0

1.9

1.7

1.6

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.9

0.7

-0.3

4,817.6
4 ,839.0
4 ,839.0
4,856.7
2.8

4,890.8
4,902.7
-1.6

4,882.6

4-90

1.8

1.5

1.4

1.1

0.9

0.6

0.2

-0.1

-0.1

-0.5

-1.6

-2.8

-3.9

1-91

1.5

1.1

1.0

0.7

0.5

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-0.6

-1.0

-1.9

-2.9

-3.5

-3.0

2-91

1.5

1.2

1.1

0.8

0.6

0.3

0.0

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5

-1.2

-1.7

-1.8

-0.7

1.7

3-91

1.5

1.2

1.1

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.8

-1.2

-1.0

-0,1

1.5

1.2

4-91

1.4

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.4

0.2

0.0

0.0

-0.2

-0.6

-0.9

-0.7

0.1

1.2

a. 9

0.6

1-92

1.5

1.2

1.2

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.1

0.7

1.6

1.6

1.7

2.9

2-92

1.5

1.2

1.2

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.0

-0.1

0.1

0.8

1.6

1.5

1.6

2.2

1.4

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-8 9

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

4,833.8
4,796.7
4 ,817.1
4,831.8
4,838.5
4,873.7
4 ,891.0

Second quarter 1992 data are p r eliminary estimates.




P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e Ban k of St. Louis
Au g u s t 27, 199 2

13

Im p lic it P rice D efla to r fo r GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

5.1

4.3

3.5

2.7

1.9
1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Qua r t e r

Initial Quarter
3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-8 8

4-88

1-89

4-8 7

3.6
3.9

4.0

4.2

4.4

4.8

4.1

4.2

4.5

4.5

4.3

4.5

4.7

4.8

4.6

4.4

4.5

4.7

4.7

4.6

5.0

4-90

1-91

4.6

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

5.4

2-89

3-90

3.9

1-89

1987 = 100
2-90

5.1

4-88

1-90

4.4

3-8 8

4-89

3.6

2-88

3-89

3.6

1-88

2-89

101.2
102.1
103.2
104.5
105.5
106.9
108.1

3-8 9

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.6

4.2

3.8

4-89

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.0

3.7

3.7

1-90

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.4

109.1
110.1
111.3

2-90

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.6

4.8

3-90

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.7

4-90

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.5

4.5

4.3

3.9

1-91

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.6

4.6

5.3

2-91

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.2

4.4

3.5

3-91

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.8

3.7

2.9

2.4

4-91

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.5

3.4

2.8

2.4

2.4

1-92

4.0

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.3

2.8

2.6

2.7

3.1

2-92

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

2.7

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.3

3.2

2.8

2.6

2.7

2.9

2.7

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3 -88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4 -89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

112.6
113.9
115.0
116.5
117.5
118.2
118.9
119.8
120.6

S e c o n d q uarter 1 992 data a r e pr e l i m i n a r y estimates.




P r e p a r e d by Federal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis
A u g u s t 27, 1992

Final Sales in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-87

3.6
4.0

5.5

3.2

B i l l i o n s of D o l l a r s
2-90

3-90

4.1

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

1.9

2.8

Initial Quarter
Annu a l Rates
3-89 4-89 1-90

4.6

4.3

2-89

6.3

2-88

1-69

1.0

1-88

4-88

4,5 6 5 . 6
4,636.2
4,688.7

3-88

3.4

4-88

3.6

4.2

3.5

3.0

1-89

3.2

3.7

3.0

2.5

2-89

3.1

3.4

2.9

2.4

3-89

2.9

3.2

2.7

2.3

4-89

2.7

2.9

2.4

2.0

1-90

2.8

3.0

2.6

2-90

2.5

2.6

2.2

4,710.9
4,758.7
1.5

4,77 6 . 3

2.6

1.8

2.2

4,8 0 2 . 0

2.4

1.8

2.0

1.8

2.0

1.5

1.6

1.2

0.7

2.4

2.4

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.5

4.3

1.9

1.9

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.3

1.6

4,823.0
4,831.8
4,883.3
-1.1

4,870.0
4,871.4

3-90

2.3

2.4

2.0

1.7

1.7

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.0

1.1

-0.5

0.1

4-90

2.0

2.1

1.7

1.5

1.4

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.6

-0.6

-0.4

-0.9

1-91

1.6

1.7

1.3

1.0

0.9

0.6

0.5

0.2

0.0

-0.2

-1.3

-1.3

-2.0

-3.2

2-91

1.6

1.7

1.3

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.1

-0.8

-0.7

-0.9

-1.0

1.3

3-91

1.5

1.5

1.2

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.1

0.0

-0.7

-0.6

-0.8

-0.8

0.4

-0.5

4-91

1.4

1.4

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.5

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.0

-0.6

-0.5

-0.7

-0.6

0.3

-0.3

4,860.6
4,821.8
4,83 7 . 4
4,831.2
4,830.9

0.0

1-92

1.6

1.6

1.3

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.4

1.3

1.4

2.3

4.7

4,886.3

2-92

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.3

1.0

0.9

1.4

2.1

-0.4

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

4,8 8 1 . 8

P r e p a r e d by F ederal R e s e r v e Bank of St. Louis
A u g u s t 27, 1992

Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter

3-87

4-37

4-87

3.4

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

Initial Quarter
Annu a l Ra t e s
3-89 4-89 1-90

7.1

B i l l i o n s of D o l l a r s
2-90

3-90

4 -90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

-0.1

1-88

1-88

3,074.7
3,1 2 8 . 2

2-88

3.1

4.8

2.5

3-8 8

3.1

4.2

2.7

2.9

4-88

3.3

4.2

3.2

3.5

4.1

1-89

2.8

3.3

2.4

2.4

2.1

0.1
1.1

3,1 4 7 . 8
3,170.6
3,202.9
3,203.6

2-89

2.5

3.0

2.1

2.0

1.8

0.6

3-89

2.6

3.0

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.4

2.0

2.9

4-89

2.4

2.7

2.1

2.0

1.8

1.2

1.6

1.9

0.8

1-90

2.3

2.6

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.4

1.7

2.0

1.5

2.2

2-90

2.1

2.4

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.0

1.1

0.1

1.6

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.3

0.9

1.7

3,212.2
3,235.3
3 ,242.0
3,259.5
3 ,260.1

3-90

2.1

2.3

1.8

1.8

4-90

1.7

1.8

1.4

1.3

1.1

0.7

0.8

0.7

0.3

0.2

-0.5

-0.7

-3.1

1-91

1.3

1.5

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.3

0.3

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-1.1

-1.5

-3.1

-3.0

2-91

1.4

1.5

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.5

0.5

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.5

-0.6

-1.4

-0.5

2.0

3-91

1.4

1.5

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.5

0.6

0.5

0.2

0.2

-0.2

-0.2

-0.7

0.1

1.7

1.5

4-91

1.3

1.4

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.2

0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.6

0.0

1.1

0.6

-0.3

1-92

1.5

1.6

1.3

1.2

1.1

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.5

0.3

1.0

2.0

2.1

2.4

5.1

2-92

1.4

1.5

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.8

1.6

1.5

1.5

2.4

-0.2

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-8S

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4 -90

1-vl

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

3,273.9
3 ,248.0
3,223.5
3,239.3
3,251.2
3 ,249.0
3,289.3
3,2 8 7 . 4

S e c o n d quarter 1992 data are prelininary estimates.




P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R eserve Ban k o f St. Louis
A u g u s t 27, 1992

15

Residential Fixed Investment in 19S7 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rales o f Change)
Terminal
Q ua r t e r

Initial Quarter
3-87

4 -87

4-8 7

-3.8

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-8 9

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-92

-1.8

1-88

1-88

-5.8

223.3
220.0

2-88

-1.4

-1.2

3.7

3-8 8

-0.4

0.1

3.2

2.7

4-88

0.4

0.9

3.2

3.0

3.3

1-89

-0.6

-0.4

1.0

0.1

-1.2

-5.4

2-89

-2.3

-2.4

-1.7

-3.0

-4.8

-8.6 -11.7

3-89

-3.0

-3.1

-2.7

-3.9

-5.5

-8.3

-9.7

-7.6

4 -89

-3.3

-3.5

-3.2

-4.2

-5.6

-7.7

-8.4

-6.8

-5.9

1-90

-2.5

-2.5

-2.1

-2.9

-3.9

-5.2

-5.2

-2.9

-0.5

2-90

-3.8

-4.0

-3.8

-4.7

-5.7

-7.1

-7.4

-6.3

-5.9

3-90

-5.5

-5.9

-5.9

-6.9

-8.0

-9.5 -10.2

4-90

-6.9

-7.4

-7.5

-8.6

-9.7 -11.2 -12.0 -12.1 -13.0 -14.7 -20.4 -22.6 -22.4

1-91

-8.5

-9.0

-9.3 -10.4 -11.6 -13.1 -14.1 -14.4 -15.5 -17.3 -22.1 -24.1 -24.7 -26.9

2-91

-7.6

-8.0

-8.1

-9.1 -10.1 -11.3 -11.9 -12.0 -12.6 -13.7 -17.0 -17.3 -15.3 -11.6

7.0

3-91

-6.3

-6.6

-6.7

-7.5

-8.3

-9.2

-9.6

-9.4

-9.6 -10.1 -12.5 -11.8

-8.7

-3.7

10.6

14.4

4-91

-5.4

-5.6

-5.6

-6.2

-6.9

-7.7

-7.9

-7.5

-7.5

-7.7

-9.4

-8.3

-5.0

-0.1

10.9

12.9

11.3

1-92

-4.1

-4.3

-4.2

-4.7

-5.2

-5.8

-5.8

-5.3

-5.0

-4.9

-6.1

-4.7

-1.2

3.6

13.1

15.2

15.6

20.1

2-92

-3.5

-3.6

-3.4

-3.9

-4.3

-4.8

-4.8

-4.2

-3.8

-3.6

-4.6

-3.1

0.2

4.5

12.2

13.6

13.3

14.4

8.9

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3 -88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4 -89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

222.0
223.5
225.3
222.2
215.4
211.2
208.0
5.3

210.7

-5.9 -15.9

201.8

-9.9 -10.5 - 11.9 -19.5 -22.9

189.1
177.5
164.1
166.9
172.6
177.3
185.6
189.6

P r e p a r e d by Federal R eserve Rank of St. Louis
A ugu s t 27, 1992

Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Ter m i n al
Quarter
3-87

4-87

4-87

3.6

2-88

3-8 8

4-88

1-89

2-89

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-89 4 - 8 9 1-90

5.7

Billions of Dollars
2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

1.6

1-88

1-88

510.6
517.7

2-88

6.0

8.3

11.0

3-8 8

5.2

6.5

6.9

2.9

531.4

4-8 8

4.7

5.5

5.5

2.8

2.7

535.2
538.8

1-89

4.0

4.5

4.2

2.0

1.6

0.5

2-89

3.7

4.1

3.8

2.0

1.7

1.3

2.0

3-8 9

3.2

3.4

3.1

1.6

1.2

0.7

0.9

-0.3

4-89

2.4

2.5

2.1

0.7

0.2

-0.4

-0.7

-2.0

-3.7

1-90

2.8

2.9

2.6

1.4

1.2

0.9

1.0

0.6

1.1

6.2

539.5
5 42.2
5 41.8
536.7
5 44.8

2-90

1.9

1.9

1.5

0.4

0.0

-0.4

-0.6

-1.2

-1.5

-0.4

-6.6

3-90

2.2

2.3

1.9

1.0

0.7

0.4

0.4

0.1

0.2

1.5

-0.7

5.6

535.6

4-90

1.2

1.2

0.8

-0.2

-0.5

-0.9

-1.1

-1.6

-1.8

-1.4

-3.8

-2.3

1-91

-0.1

-0.2

-0.7

-1.7

-2.1

-2.7

-3.1

-3.8

-4.3

-4.5

-6.9

-7.1 -12.8 -15.8

507.0
503.0

542.9
529.3

-9.6

2-91

-0.3

-0.4

-0.9

- 1.8

-2.2

-2.7

-3.1

-3.7

-4.2

-4.2

-6.2

-6.1

-9.7

-9.7

-3.1

3-91

-0.5

-0. 6

-1.1

- 1.9

-2.3

-2.8

-3.1

-3.6

-4.1

-4.1

-5.7

-5.6

-8.1

-7.6

-3.2

-3.4

4-91

-0.8

-0.9

-1.3

-2.2

-2.6

-3.0

-3.3

-3.8

-4.2

-4.2

-5.6

-5.5

-7.6

-7.0

-3.9

-4.3

-1.1

-1.8

-1.1

-1.3

3-88

4-88

1-92

-0.6

-0.7

0.2

0.1

-0.2

3-87

2-92

-0.8

4-87

1-88

2-88

-2.2

-2.5

-3.2

-3.5

-1.5

-1.8

-1.9

-1.7

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-8 9

-2.8

-3.5

-4.6

-4.3

-5.9

-5.1

-2.6

-2.1

-3.1

-2.0

1.1

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

-2.2

498.7
492.1

-5.2

495.8

-1.2

3.0

2.1

4.1

9.0

15.3

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

-1.9

513.8

S e c o n d quarter 1992 d a t a a r e p r eliminary estivates.




P r e p a r e d by Federal R e s e r v e Bank o f St. Louis
A ugu s t 27, 1992

16

Exports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
T erminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-87

4-87

1-88

2-8S

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

Bi l l i o n s of D o l l a r s
A n nual Ra t e s
1-92
386.1

4-87

16.7

1-88

20.1

23.6

2-88

16.7

16.8

10.3

3-88

14.2

13.3

8.5

407.1
41 7 . 2
6.8

424.1
43 8 . 2

4-88

14.1

13.5

10.3

10.3

14.0

1-89

14.4

13.9

11.6

12.1

14.9

15.7

45 4 . 5
4 72.0

2-89

14.7

14.3

12.6

13.1

15.3

16.0

16.3

3-89

12.6

12.3

10.5

10.5

11.5

10.7

8.3

0.8

4-89

12.9

12.4

10.9

11.0

11.8

11.3

9.9

6.8

13.1

1-90

12.6

12.2

10.8

10.9

11.6

11.2

10.1

8.0

11.9

10.7

2-90

12.1

11.7

10.4

10.4

11.0

10.5

9.4

7.S

10.2

8.8

47 2 . 9
48 7 . 7
500.2
7.0

508.7
5 08.4

3-90

11.0

10.5

9.3

9.2

9.5

8.9

7.8

6.1

7.5

5.7

3.3

-0.2

4-90

11.1

10.6

9.5

9.4

9.7

9.2

8.3

7.0

8.3

7.2

6.0

5.5

11.6

1-91

9.8

9.3

8.2

8.0

8.2

7.5

6.5

5.2

6.0

4.6

3.1

1.9

3.0

-5.0

2-91

10.3

9.8

8.8

8.7

8.9

8.4

7.6

6.6

7.4

6.5

5.7

5.4

7.3

5.2

16.6

3-91

10.0

9.6

8.6

8.5

8.7

8.2

7.5

6.5

7.3

6.5

5.8

5.5

7.0

5.5

11.3

6.2

4-91

10.2

9.8

8.9

8.9

9.0

8.6

8.0

7.2

7.9

7.3

6.8

6.8

8.3

7.4

11.9

9.7

5 22.6
5 15.9
536.1
544.2
13.3

561.4
565.4

1-92

9.8

9.4

8.6

8.4

8.6

8.2

7.5

6.8

7.4

6.8

6.3

6.2

7.3

6.5

9.6

7.4

7.9

2.9

2-92

9.2

8.8

8.0

7.8

7.9

7.5

6.9

6.1

6.6

6.0

5.5

5.3

6.1

5.2

7.4

5.2

4.9

1.0

-0.9

3-87

4-57

1-SS

2-68

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

564.1

P r e p a r e d by Fed e r a l R e s e r v e Bank o f St. Louis
A u g u s t 27, 1992

Imports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
T erminal
Quarter
3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

Initial Quarter
A n nual Rates
3-6 9 4-89 1-90

B i l l i o n s of Dol l a r s
2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92
522.1

4-67

8.7

1-88

3.6

-1.2

2-88

1.0

-2.6

-4.0

3 -8 8

2.9

1.0

2.2

8.7

4-88

4.6

3.6

5.3

10.2

520.5
515.2
526.1
11.7

540.9
53 4 . 3

1-89

3.0

1.9

2.7

5.0

3.1

-4.8

2-89

3.4

2.5

3.3

5.2

4.0

0.4

5.8

3 -8 9

3.8

3.1

3.8

5.4

4.6

2.4

6.2

541.9
6.5

550.5
555.0

4 -8 9

3.7

3.1

3.7

5.1

4.4

2.6

5.2

4.9

3.3

1-90

3.6

3.0

3.6

4.7

4.1

2.6

4.5

4.1

3.0

2.6

2-90

3.7

3.3

3.8

4.8

4.2

3.0

4.7

4.4

3.7

3.9

3-90

3.5

3.1

3.5

4.4

3.9

2.8

4.1

3.8

3.1

3.1

3.3

1.5

4-90

2.6

2.1

2.4

3.0

2.4

1.3

2.2

1.6

0.7

0.1

-0.8

-3.6

-8.5

555.3

1-91

1.2

0.7

0.8

1.3

0.6

-0.6

0.0

-0.9

-2.0

-3.1

-4.4

-7.4 -11.6 -14.6

53 3 . 8

55 8 . 6
56 5 . 6

5.1

56 7 . 7

2-91

2.1

1.7

1.9

2.4

1.9

0.9

1.6

1.1

0.3

-0.2

-0.7

-2.1

-3.3

-0.6

15.6

3-91

3.0

2.6

2.9

3.5

3.1

2.3

3.0

2.7

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.4

1.4

5.0

16.4

17.1

55 3 . 5

4-91

3.1

2.7

3.0

3.5

3.1

2.5

3.1

2.9

2.5

2.4

2.4

1.9

2.0

4.8

12.2

10.5

4.2

1-92

3.1

2.8

3.0

3.5

3.2

2.5

3.2

2.9

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.2

4.5

9.9

8.1

3. 9

3.5

7.7

9.5

15.9

3-91

4-91

1-92

3.7

3.5

3.8

4.3

4.0

3.4

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.8

3.9

3.7

4.1

6.3

11.1

3-S7

2-92

10.0

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

57 5 . 8
581.8
586.8
60 8 . 8

S e c o n d quarter 1992 data are preliminary estimates.




P r e p a r e d by F e d e r a l Rese r v e B a n k of St. Louis
A u g u s t 27, 1992

17

Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Ter m i n a l
Quar t e r

Initial Quarter
3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-92

4-87

3.7

1-88

-0.3

-4.1

2-88

0.1

- 1.7

0.9

3-88

-0.1

-1.4

0.0

-0.9

4-88

0.9

0.2

1.6

2.0

5.0

1-89

0.4

-0.2

0.8

0.8

1.6

-1.6

2-89

1.1

0.7

1.7

1.9

2.8

1.8

5.3

3-8 9

1.5

1.2

2.1

2.4

3.2

2.6

4.9

4-8 9

1.4

1.1

1.9

2.0

2.6

2.0

3.3

2.3

0.2

1-90

1.9

1.7

2.4

2.6

3.2

2.9

4.0

3.6

3.2

6.4

2-90

1.8

1.6

2.3

2.4

2.9

2.6

3.5

3.0

2.5

3.7

1.1

3-90

1.5

1.3

1.8

1.9

2.3

1.9

2.5

2.0

1.4

1.8

-0.4

-2.0

4-90

1.8

1.7

2.2

2.3

2.7

2.4

3.0

2.7

2.3

2.8

1.7

2.0

6.1

1-91

1.9

1.8

2.3

2.4

2.7

2.5

3.0

2.7

2.4

2.8

2.0

2.3

4.4

2.8

2-91

1.8

1.6

2.1

2.2

2.5

2.2

2.7

2.4

2.1

2.4

1.6

1.7

3.0

1.5

0.2

3-91

1.5

1.4

1.8

1.9

2.1

1.8

2.2

1.8

1.5

1.7

1.0

0.9

1.7

0.2

-1.0

4-91

1.3

1.1

1.5

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.7

1.4

1.0

1.1

0.4

0.3

0.7

-0.6

-1.7

-2.6

-3.0

1-92

1.3

1.1

1.5

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.7

1.4

1.1

1.2

0.5

0.5

0.9

-0.1

-0.9

-1.2

-0.7

1.7

2-92

1.2

1.0

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.3

1.5

1.2

0.9

1.0

0.4

0.3

0.7

-0.2

-0.8

-1.0

-0.6

0.6

-0.6

3-87

4 -87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

893.0
883.7
885.6
883.7
894.5
890.8
902.3
4.5

912.2
912.6
926.8
929.4
924.8
938.5
945.1
945.6
-2.3

940.2
933.1
937.0
935.7

S e c o n d q uarter 1992 d ata are preliminary estimates.
P r e p a r e d by Federal R eserve Bank of St. Louis
A u gust 27, 1992

Corporate Profits
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3 -88

4-88

1-89

2-89

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-89 4 - 8 9 1-90

Billions of Dollars
2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92
343.3

4-8 7

6.4

1-88

8.5

10.7

2-88

10.5

12.5

14.5

3 -88

8.1

8.6

7.6

1.2

4 -88

9.4

10.2

10.0

7.9

15.0

1-89

6.1

6.0

4.9

1.9

2.3

-9.1

2-89

5.3

5.1

4.0

1.6

1.7

-4.4

3 -8 9

2.8

2.3

1.0

-1.5

-2.2

-7.3

-6.4 -12.9

4 -8 9

2.1

1.6

0.4

-1.8

-2.4

-6.3

-5.3

-8.2

-3.1

1-90

3.4

3.1

2.2

0.5

0.4

-2.3

-0.5

-0.8

5.8

15.6

2-90

4.7

4.6

3.9

2.7

2.9

1.0

3.1

3.8

10.1

17.3

19.1

3-90

1.3

0.9

-0.1

-1.6

-1.9

-4.1

-3.3

-4.0

-1.7

-1.2

-8.6 -29.9

4-90

0.5

0.1

-0.8

-2.3

-2.6

-4.6

-4.0

-4.7

-3.0

-3.0

-8.5 -19.7

-8.2

1-91

1.0

0.6

-0.2

-1.5

-1.7

-3.4

-2.7

-3.2

-1.4

-1.1

-4.9 -11.8

-1.0

6.7

2-91

0.7

0.3

-0.4

-1.6

-1.8

-3.4

-2.7

-3.1

-1.6

-1.4

-4.4

-9.6

-1.6

1.9

-2.6

3-91

0.2

-0.2

-0.9

-2.0

-2.2

-3.7

-3.1

-3.5

-2.3

-2.2

-4.8

-9.0

-2.9

-1.1

-4.7

-6.8

4-91

0.6

0.3

-0.4

-1.4

-1.6

-2.8

-2.2

-2.5

-1.3

-1.0

-3.2

-6.5

-1.0

0.9

-1.0

-0.1

7.1

1-92

2.9

2.7

2.2

1.4

1.4

0.5

1.3

1.4

2.9

3.6

2.2

0.0

6.1

9.2

9.8

14.3

26.7

49. &

2-92

3.1

2.9

2.5

1.8

1.8

0.9

1.7

1.8

3.3

4.0

2.7

0.9

6.2

8.8

9.3

12.5

19.8

26.6

7.1

3-87

4 -87

1-88

2-88

3-8 8

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

352.1
3 64.2
365.3
378.3
369.4
3 69.9

0.5

3 57.3
354.5
3 67.6
384.0
351.4
344.0
349.6
347.3
341.2
347.1
384.0
390.6

C o r p o r a t e prof i t s w ith capital consumption and inventory v a luation adjustments. S e c o n d qua r t e r dat a are p r e l i m i n a r y estimates.




Pr e p a r e d by Federal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis
A u g u s t 27, 1992

18

Gross Saving as a P e r c e n t o f GDP
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

20

18

16

14

12

10

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Private Saving
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Q uarter

3-87

4-87

4-87

25.0

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

Initial Quarter
Annual Ra t e s
3 -89 4-89 1-90

Billions of Dollars
2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

43.6

1-88

1-88

8.8

783.7
800.4

2-88

15.4

3.4

-1.7

3-88

11.3

2.3

-0.8

0.0

4-88

10.9

4.0

2.4

4.5

9.2

1-89

10.1

4.4

3.3

5.0

7.6

6.0

2-89

7.4

2.3

1.1

1.8

2.3

-0.9

-7.4

3-89

6.4

2.0

0.9

1.4

1.8

-0.6

-3.7

0.1

4-89

6.7

2.8

2.0

2.6

3.2

1.7

0.3

4.4

8.9

1-90

7.5

4.0

3.5

4.2

4.9

4.1

3.7

7.6

11.6

14.4

2-90

7.8

4.7

4.3

5.0

5.8

5.2

5.1

8.4

11.4

12.7

11.0
-8.2 -24.1

7 97.0
7 97.0
814.8
82 6 . 7
811.0
81 1 . 2
828.6
856.9
87 9 . 5

3-90

4.7

1.7

1.0

1.3

1.5

0.4

-0.5

1.0

1.2

-1.2

4-90

5.8

3.1

2.6

3.1

3.4

2.7

2.2

3.9

4.7

3.7

0.4

-4.5

20.1

1-91

6.4

4.0

3.6

4.1

4.5

4.0

3.7

5.4

6.3

5.8

3.8

1.5

17.4

14.8

2-91

6.2

3.9

3.6

4.0

4.4

3.9

3.7

5.2

5.9

5.4

3.7

2.0

12.5

8.9

3.4

3-91

5.4

3.3

2.9

3.3

3.5

3.0

2.8

4.0

4.4

3.8

2.2

0.5

7.8

4.0

-1.0

820.9
859.3
889.4
89 6 . 9
-5.2

884.9

4-91

6.5

4.5

4.2

4.7

5.0

4.7

4.6

5.8

6.5

6.2

5.1

4.1

11.0

8.8

6.9

8.6

24.5

1-92

6.5

4.6

4.4

4.8

5.1

4.8

4.7

5.9

6.5

6.3

5.3

4.5

10.2

8.4

6.8

8.0

15. 3

6.7

2-92

6.7

4.9

4.7

5.1

5.5

5.2

5.2

6.3

6.9

6.7

5.8

5.2

10.2

8.7

7.5

8.5

13.6

8.4

10.2

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-9 1

4-91

1-92

934.8
950.1
973.4

Se c o n d quarter 1992 data are preli*inary estimates.




P r e p a r e d by F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B ank o f St. Louis
A u g u s t 27, 199 2

19

B u s in e s s P ro d u c tiv ity and C o m p en sa tio n
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1986

1987

1988

1989

Percent

1990

1991

1992

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector Output per Hour
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
T e r minal
Quarter

Initial Qua r t e r
3 -87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

1982 = 100
2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

4-8 7

1.5

1-88

1.3

1.1

2-88

0.2

-0.4

-1.8

3-8 8

0.5

0.2

-0.2

1.5

4-88

0.4

0.2

-0.1

0.7

0.0

1-89

-0.1

-0.4

-0.8

-0.5

-1.4

-2.9

2-89

-0.1

-0.4

-0.7

-0.4

-1.0

-1.4

0.0

3-89

-0.3

-0.6

-0.8

-0.7

-1.2

-1.6

-0.9

-1.8

4-89

-0.2

-0.5

-0.7

-0.5

-0.9

-1.1

-0.5

-0.7

0.4

1-90

-0.1

-0.3

-0.5

-0.3

-0.6

-0.7

-0.2

-0.2

0.6

0.7

2-90

0.1

0.0

-0.2

0.0

-0.2

-0.2

0.4

0.5

1.2

1.7

2.6

3-90

0.0

-0.2

-0.3

-0.1

-0.3

-0.4

0.1

0.1

0.5

0.6

0.5

-1.4

4-90

-0.1

-0.2

-0.4

-0.2

-0.4

-0.5

-0.1

-0.1

0.2

0.2

0.0

-1.3

-1.1

1-91

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5

-0.3

-0.5

-0.6

-0.3

-0.3

-0.1

-0.1

-0.4

-1.3

-1.3

-1.5

2-91

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.2

-0.4

-0.4

-0.1

-0.1

0.1

0.1

-0.1

-0.7

-0.5

-0.2

1.1

3-91

0.0

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

-0.2

-0.2

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.3

0.2

-0.2

0.1

0.5

1.5

1.8

4-91

0.2

0.1

0.0

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.3

0.7

1.1

2.0

2.4

2.9

1-9 2

0.4

0.3

0.3

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.8

1.2

1.7

2.5

2.9

3.5

4.0

2-92

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.7

0.8

1.0

1.1

1.1

0.9

1.2

1.6

2.3

2.6

2.8

2.7

1.4

3-87

4 -87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

110.3
110.6
110.1
110.5
110.5
109.7
109.7
109.2
109.3
109.5
110.2
109.8
109.5
109.1
109.4
109.9
110.7
111.8
112.2

R e v i s e d frou 1989.




Prepa r e d by Federal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis
Augu s t 11, 1992

20

Net Federal Debt
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Q uarter

Bi l l i o n s of
Dollars

Initial Quarter

28
-?

3-87

4-87

18
-8

2-8S

3-87

7.2
7.9

9.2
8.4

3-88

7.8

8.4

2-89

3-89

4-8 9

1-90

2-90

3-90

8.3

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

9.4

7.6

1-89

8.9

18
-8
28
-8

4-88

5.4

4-87

3-88

1,903.1
1,944.1
1,988.4

2016
,2.

4-88

7.2

7.6

.
81 68
.
8 2 7.6
.
7.3
66
.

6.4

4.6

1-89

7.2

7.5

7.3

6.7

6.7

5.9

7.2

2-89

7.1

7.3

7.0

66
.

6.5

5.9

6.5

3-8 9

7.1

7.3

7.1

6.7

6.7

6.3

68 66
.
.

7.4

4-89

7.2

7.4

7.2

6.9

6.9

6.7

7.2

7.9

1-90

7.9

8 2 81
.
.

7.9

2-90

82
.

8.5

8.4

.
81 80
.
86 86
.
.

8.5

3-90

8.5

88 88
.
.

8.7

4-90

88
.

9.1

9.1

9.1

1-91

8.9

9.1

9.1

9.1

2-91

9.1

9.3

9.4

9.4

3-91

9.5

9.7

9.8

9.8

4-91

9.5

9.7

9.8

9.8

1-92

9.6

9.8

9.8

9.9

2-87

3-87

4-87

2,062.4
2,085.7

2121
,2.
2,152.7

5.9

7.2

2,191.4
2,235.7

8.3

1 . 1 . 15.0
0 2 16
9.3
9.7 10.7 1 .
20
1 8 13.5 1 .
8.9
9.0
9.6 1 .
0 0 10.9 1 . 12.9 11.9
18
9.3
9.4 1 .
0 0 10.5 1 . 1 . 13.0 12.3
1 2 20
9.3
9.4 1 .
0 0 10.3 10.9 1 . 1 . 11.5
16 22
0 2 10.5 1 . 11.7 12.3 11.7
9.6
9.7 1 .
11
1 . 1 . 10.7 1 . 1 . 1 . 1 . 12.4
00 02
11 16 22 28
1 . 1 . 1 . 10.9 11.4 11.9 12.3 11.9
00 01 0 6
1 . 1 . 1 . 10.9 11.4 1 . 1 . 11.9
01 02 06
1 8 22

18 28
-8 -8

3-88

8.7

4-88

2,315.4

9.1

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2 ,382.2
2 ,449.1

11.7
12.4

13.1

2,525.8

11.3

2,582.0

11.8

1 . 9.2
11
1 . 1 . 12.5
16 08
1 . 12.5 14.1 15.8
26
1 . 11.7 12.5 12.5
20
11.9
1 . 1 . 1.
1 6 2 2 21

10.3

11.3

2-90

3-90

3-91

4-91

11.6
12.4
11.9

4-90

1-91

2-91

2,658.9
2,758.3
2 ,820.8

9.4

2,897.3

P r e p a r e d by Federal R e s e r v e Ban k of St. Louis
Jul y 20, 1992

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT
(billions of dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals

Gross
federal debt

Federal debt held
by agencies
and trusts

Net
federal debt

Federal debt held
by Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal debt held
by private
investors

Federal debt held
by foreign
investors

1988 March
June
September
December

2487.5
2548.8
2614.3
2672.8

498.9
528.3
552.1
584.8

1988.4
2021.6
2062.4
2085.7

220.8
227.1
232.7
231.6

1765.2
1796.9
1830.8
1853.8

330.9
343.5
348.6
362.7

1989 March
June
September
December

2738.1
2801.9
2870.1
2942.1

617.3
650.3
678.7
702.9

2122.1
2152.7
2191.4
2235.7

232.5
231.2
224.4
221.1

1887.1
1921.0
1967.8
2011.0

374.8
367.7
398.8
391.7

1990 March
June
September
December

3046.9
3146.8
3247.7
3353.0

734.0
766.2
798.4
822.3

2315.4
2382.2
2449.1
2525.8

223.5
230.7
236.8
250.9

2096.6
2156.0
2217.6
2282.6

383.3
390.0
407.8
418.9

1991 March
June
September
December

3458.3
3542.0
3681.5
3788.4

880.3
884.9
922.9
961.4

2582.0
2658.9
2758.3
2820.8

252.3
254.4
269.8
271.7

2339.8
2414.6
2500.6
2556.6

425.4
436.2
443.8
449.8

1992 March

3873.6

978.4

2897.3

273.1

2640.2

466.6

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original
data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.




21

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS
(billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates)

Quarters

Receipts__________
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

________ Expenditures________
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

Surplus or d e fic it(-)
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

1985 1
2
3
4

797.8
758.6
794.3
803.6

819.3
780.7
811.8
822.0

947.7
964.9
976.3
990.8

953.0
964.4
991.3
1012.6

-1 4 9 .9
-2 0 6 .3
-1 8 2 .0
-1 8 7 .2

-1 3 3 .7
-1 8 3 .7
-1 7 9 .5
-1 9 0 .6

1986 1
2
3
4

809.4
814.2
828.2
856.8

816.4
832.2
852.1
875.5

992.7
1038.0
1047.9
1034.3

1001.4
1045.2
1032.4
1038.7

-1 8 3 .3
-2 2 3 .8
-2 1 9 .7
-1 7 7 .5

-1 8 5 .0
-2 1 3 .0
-1 8 0 .3
-1 6 3 .2

1987 1
2
3
4

858.4
928.6
924.5
943.5

875.1
938.1
927.2
930.0

1048.1
1058.9
1059.0
1096.3

1057.4
1060.4
1065.6
1103.0

-1 8 9 .7
-1 3 0 .3
-1 3 4 .5
-1 5 2 .7

-1 8 2 .3
-1 2 2 .3
-1 3 8 .4
-1 7 3 .0

1988 1
2
3
4

940.5
970.4
977.8
1000.6

924.9
949.5
953.0
971.4

1098.0
1105.0
1097.3
1135.5

1098.0
1111.4
1098.2
1156.1

-1 5 7 .5
-1 3 4 .6
-1 1 9 .5
-1 3 4 .9

-173.1
-1 6 1 .9
-1 4 5 .2
-1 8 4 .7

1989 1
2
3
4

1050.9
1064.5
1053.6
1068.3

1014.3
1032.2
1020.2
1035.4

1160.8
1174.2
1181.5
1209.8

1181.0
1187.3
1182.0
1208.2

-1 1 0 .0
-1 0 9 .7
-1 2 8 .0
-1 4 1 .5

-1 6 6 .7
-155.1
-1 6 1 .8
-1 7 2 .8

1990 1
2
3
4

1086.7
1109.6
1119.9
1113.3

1061.7
1093.4
1116.0
1132.1

1254.5
1266.5
1265.5
1307.9

1252.2
1275.4
1273.6
1311.2

-1 6 7 .8
-1 5 6 .9
-1 4 5 .6
-1 9 4 .6

-1 9 0 .5
-1 8 2 .0
-1 5 7 .6
-179.1

1991 1
2
3
4

1114.6
1117.3
1127.7
1129.4

1160.1
1173.7
N.A.
N.A.

1264.4
1329.4
1348.7
1388.1

1257.9
1319.3
N.A.
N.A.

-1 4 9 .9
-2 1 2 .2
-2 2 1 .0
-2 5 8 .7

- 97.8
-1 4 5 .6
N.A.
N.A.

1992 1
2

1143.3
1149.1

N.A.
N.A.

1432.5
1448.7

N.A.
N.A.

-2 8 9 .2
-2 9 9 .6

N.A.
N.A.

N.A. — Not Available

Fiscal years
Actual
1984

1985

1986

1987

Estimates

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

Total budget
Receipts

$

Outlays
Surplus or deficit ( - )

666.5
851.8

$ - 1 8 5 .3

$

734.1 $
946.3

$ -2 1 2 .3

769.1 $ 854.1 $ 909.0
990.3
1064.1
1003.8

$ - 2 2 1 .2

$ - 1 4 9 .7

$ - 1 5 5 .1

$

990.7 $ 1031.3 $ 1054.3
1144.1
1251.8
1323.8

$ - 1 5 3 .4

$ - 2 2 0 .5

$ - 2 6 9 .5

$ 1073.6 $ 1162.9
1407.1
1503.9
$ - 3 3 3 .5

$ - 3 4 1 .0

Calendar years
National income accounts
budget
Receipts

$

Expenditures
Surplus or d e fic it(-)

725.8 $
892.7

$ - 1 6 6 .9

788.6 $ 827.2 $ 913.8 $ 972.3 $ 1059.3 $ 1107.4 $ 1122.2
1028.2
1065.6
969.9
1109.0
1332.7
1181.6
1273.6

$ - 1 8 1 .4

$ - 2 0 1 .0

$ - 1 5 1 .8

$ - 1 3 6 .6

$ - 1 2 2 .3

$ - 1 6 6 .2

$ - 2 1 0 .4

Cyclically adjusted budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or d e fic it(-)

$

754.5
890.3

$ - 1 3 5 .8

$

808.5
980.3

$ - 1 7 1 .9

$

844.1 $ 917.6 $ 949.7 $ 1025.5 $ 1100.8
1029.4
1071.6
1115.9
1278.1
1189.6

$ - 1 8 5 .4

$ - 1 5 4 .0

$ - 1 6 6 .2

$ - 1 6 4 .1

$ - 1 7 7 .3

Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estimates from Office of Management and Budget’s Mid-Session Review of the FY1992 Budget (July 24, 1992).
Cyclically adjusted budget data are in process of revision.
Source: Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis




G o v ern m en t D e f ic it ( - ) /S u r p lu s ( + )
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

10

-1 0

-6 0

-6 0

Tot i\

O

-1 1 0
I

'
✓

X

Fee eral

m m /

-1 6 0

-1 1 0

*

^

/

\
VA
AW
»

-1 6 0

/ N V

\

-....\* ..... . / .....
V —

-2 1 0

-2 1 0

N \
\ \
\ \
V

•260

-3 1 0

1

1 ■1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1988

1987

1986

1

1

1

... r.... I ...*

1

r -

1

1

1

-3 1 0

1992

1991

1990

1989

1

-2 6 0

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Defense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terminal
Qua r t e r

Initial Quarter
3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4 -87

-0.1
-0.9

-0.7

-1.0

-0.8

-1.8

0.0

0.3

0.0

1.4

-0.8

-0.6

-1.1

-0.6

-0.3

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

B i l l i o n s of Dollars
Annual R ates
1-92

3.9

1-89

4-89

-1.1

4-88

3-89

-2.5

3-88

2-89

1.2

2-88

1-89

-1.5

1-88

4-88

295.8
296.7
294.8
294.0
296.8
-4.4

293.5

2-89

0.2

0.5

0.4

1.2

1.9

0.9

6.6

3-89

1.4

1.8

1.9

2.8

3.8

3.8

8.2

9.9

4-89

0.8

1.1

1.1

1.7

2.3

1.9

4.1

2.9

-3.6

1-90

2.0

2.3

2.5

3.2

4.0

4.0

6.2

6.0

4.2

12.6

2-90

1.9

2.3

2.4

3.0

3.6

3.6

5.3

4.9

3.3

7.0

1.7

298.2
305.3
302.5
311.6
3 12.9

3-90

1.3

1.5

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.2

3.4

2.7

1.0

2.6

-2.0

-5.6

4-90

2.6

3.0

3.2

3.7

4.3

4.4

5.7

5.5

4.7

6.8

5.0

6.7

20.6

1-91

3.3

3.7

3.9

4.5

5.0

5.2

6.4

6.4

5.8

7.8

6.7

8.4

16.2

11.9

2-91

2.5

2.8

2.9

3.4

3.8

3.8

4.8

4.5

3.8

5.1

3.7

4.2

7.6

1.7

3-91

2.0

2.3

2.4

2.7

3.1

3.0

3.8

3.5

2.7

3.6

2.2

2.3

4.4

-0.5

-6.2

-4.8

4-91

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.6

2.2

1.4

2.0

0.6

0.4

1.6

-2.6

-7.0

-6.8

-8.7

1-92

1.2

1.4

1.4

1.7

1.9

1.7

2.2

1.8

1.1

1.6

0.3

0.1

1.1

-2.4

-5.7

-5.0

-5.1

-1.4

2-92

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.9

1.6

0.8

1.3

0.1

-0.1

0.7

-2.3

-4.9

-4.2

-4.0

-1.5

-1.6

3-8 7

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

308.4
323.2
332.4
-7.6

325.9
321.9
314.7
31 3 . 6
312.3

S e c o n d qua r t e r data are preliminary estimates.




P r e p a r e d by F ederal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis
A u g u s t 27, 1992

23

Federal Nondefense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates o f Change)
Terninal
Quarter

3-87

4 -87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-89 4-8 9
1-90

Billions of D ollars
2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

4-8 7

21.7

1-88

10.6

0.4

2-88

8.5

2.4

4.5

3-8 8

5.4

0.5

0.5

-3.4

4-8 8

8.0

4.8

6.3

7.2

18.8

1-89

9.0

6.6

8.2

9.5

16.6

14.4

2-89

8.3

6.2

7.4

8.1

12.2

9.1

4.1

3-8 9

7.2

5.3

6.1

6.5

9.1

6.0

2.1

0.1

4-8 9

8.1

6.5

7.4

7.8

10.2

8.2

6.2

7.3

1-90

8.9

7.5

8.5

9.1

11.3

9.8

8.7

10.3

15.8

16.6

2-90

8.5

7.3

8.0

8.5

10.3

8.9

7.9

8.9

11.9

10.5

4.6

3-90

7.9

6.7

7.4

7.7

9.2

7.8

6.8

7.3

9.2

7.4

3.0

1.5

4-90

8.2

7.1

7.8

8.1

9.5

8.4

7.5

8.1

9.8

8.5

6.0

6.6

1-91

5.9

4.8

5.2

5.2

6.1

4.8

3.7

3.6

4.2

2.2

-1.2

-3.0

2-91

7.6

6.7

7.2

7.4

8.4

7.4

6.7

7.0

8.1

6.9

5.1

5.2

6.5

3.9

34.4

3-91

7.7

6.9

7.3

7.6

8.5

7.6

7.0

7.3

8.3

7.3

5.8

6.1

7.3

5.7

21.4

9.6

4-91

8.4

7.6

8.1

8.4

9.3

8.6

8.1

8.5

9.4

8.8

7.7

8.2

9.6

9.0

20.7

14.4

19.4

1-92

8.9

8.2

8.7

9.0

9.9

9.3

8.9

9.3

10.3

9.8

8.9

9.6

11.0

10.8

20.1

15.6

18.7

18.1

2-92

8.8

8.1

8.6

8.8

9.7

9.1

8.7

9.1

9.9

9.4

8.6

9.2

10.3

10.0

17.2

13.2

14.5

12.1

6.4

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-8 9

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

8 00.5
8 01.3
8 10.2
803.3
838.7
867.3
876.0
876.2
15.0

907.3
942.9
953.6
957.1
984.7

12.0

932.0

-5.2 -19.7

1,003.5
1,026.8
1,073.4
1,118.9
1,136.4

S e c o n d quarter d a t a a r e p r e l i m i n a r y estimates.




P r e p a r e d by Federal Res e r v e Bank of St. Louis
A u g u s t 27, 1992

24


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102