Full text of National Economic Trends : September 1991
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National E c o n o m i c Trends S e p t e m b e r 1991 F e d e r a l g o v e r n m e n t o u tla y s in c r e a s e d a t a n a v e r a g e a n n u a l ra te o f 7 .8 p e r c e n t b e t w e e n f is c a l y e a r s a re p ro je c te d b y 1 9 9 0 to g ro w 1995. th e O f f ic e o f M anagem ent and B udget (O M B ) O v e r th e s a m e t w o p e r io d s , b u d g e t re c e ip ts a t a n a v e ra g e ra te o f 6 .7 p e rc e n t. T h e fe d e ra l b u d g e t d e f ic it o v e r th e p r o je c t io n to g r o w g re w at an a v e ra g e 1980 and 1990 and a n n u a l ra te o f 3 .7 at a n a v e ra g e ra te o f 7 .1 p e rce n t fro m p e r c e n t a n d a r e e x p e c t e d to d i v e r g i n g ra te s o f g r o w t h f o r f e d e r a l o u tla y s a n d r e c e ip ts i m p ly a d e c lin in g p e r io d . W h i l e th e s iz e o f th e f e d e r a l b u d g e t c o n t in u e s to e x p a n d , th e O M B p ro je c tio n s o f th e fe d e ra l b u d g e t ’s m a n d a to ry a n d d i s c r e t i o n a r y c o m p o n e n t s i n d ic a t e s o m e m a j o r s h ifts in s p e n d in g p r i o r i t i e s . ( S p e n d i n g th a t r e q u ir e s a s e p a ra te a p p r o p r i a t i o n a c t is r e f e r r e d t o a s d i s c r e t i o n a r y , w h e r e a s s p e n d i n g t h a t is s u b j e c t t o o t h e r l a w s is c a l l e d m a n d a t o r y . ) B u d g e t s h a r e d a t a s h o w n i n t h e t a b l e b e l o w , b a s e d o n O M B w ith c o n tin u in g b u d g e t a u th o rity p r o je c t io n s , in d ic a t e th a t b y p r i m a r y m a n d a t o r y p r o g r a m s — S o c ia l S e c u r it y a n d M e d ic a r e / M e d ic a id — w i l l h a v e in c r e a s e d f r o m 1 9 9 5 th e a b o u t 3 0 p e r c e n t to m o r e t h a n 3 8 p e r c e n t o f t h e t o t a l b u d g e t . I n c o n t r a s t , t h e s h a r e o f d e f e n s e s p e n d i n g i n t h e t o t a l b u d g e t is p r o j e c t e d t o f a l l a n o t h e r 4 p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t s b y 1 9 9 5 , b r i n g i n g it s t o t a l d e c l i n e s i n c e 1 9 8 5 t o n e a r l y 7 p e r c e n t a g e p o i n t s . T h e b u d g e t s h a r e o f d o m e s t i c p r o g r a m s , a fte r d e c lin in g 7 p e r c e n t a g e p o in ts i n th e 1 9 8 0 s , is p r o j e c t e d t o i n c r e a s e s l i g h t l y o v e r t h e 1 9 9 0 l e v e l b y 1995. B u d g e t S h a r e s o f M a j o r E x p e n d i t u r e C a t e g o r ie s ( p e r c e n t ) 1 D i s c r e t i o n a r y M a n d a t o r y N a t i o n a l F i r s t y e a r d e fe n s e D o m e s t i c S o c ia l M e d i c a r e / S e c u r i t y M e d i c a i d N e t O t h e r in te re s t 1 9 8 0 2 2 . 0 % 2 1 . 0 % 1 9 . 2 % 7 . 4 % 1 9 . 8 % 1 9 8 5 2 5 .9 1 4 .9 1 9 .0 8 .9 1 6 .7 1 3 .2 1 9 9 0 1 9 9 5 R o w s (e s tim a te d ) d o n o t a d d to 1 0 0 8 . 6 % 2 3 .2 1 4 .2 1 9 .1 1 0 .6 1 2 .7 14 .3 1 9 .1 1 5 .3 2 2 .3 1 5 .9 1 4 .6 14.1 p e rc e n t b e c a u s e “ u n d is trib u te d offsetting re c e ip ts ”’ a n d s e v e ra l s m a ll ca te go rie s are e x clu d e d . — M ic h a e l T . T H E F E D E R A L R E S ER V E B A N K of ST. L O I IS v i e w s e x p ressed d o n ot necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. B e lo n g ia C o n s u m e r P r ic e In d e x P ercent — C h a n g e A ll F ro m U r b a n C o n s u m e r s Previous Y e a r Seasonally Adjusted Percent P e rcent 8 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 P re p a re d C o n s u m e r (C o m p o u n d e d Terminal Month 12-89 P r i c A n n u a l I n i t i a l 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 1-90 12.0 2-90 8.9 3-90 7.5 5.3 4.8 4-90 6.3 4.5 3.8 2.8 5-90 5,4 3.8 3.2 2.4 1.9 6-90 5.8 4.6 4.3 4.1 4.7 7.7 7-90 5.6 4.6 4.4 4.3 4.7 6.2 4.7 8-90 6.2 5.4 5,4 5.5 6.2 7.6 7,6 10.6 9-90 6.6 5.9 6.0 6.2 6.8 8.1 8.2 10.1 8-90 e Rates I n d e by Federal 1991 R eserve B a n k 10-90 Louis x of Change) Month 9-90 o f St. 19&2-84=100 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 127.6 5.8 128.2 128.7 129.0 129.2 130.Q 130.5 131.6 9.5 132.6 10-90 6.7 6.1 6.1 6.3 6.9 8.0 8.1 9.2 8.5 7.5 11-90 6.4 5.9 5.9 6.0 6.5 7.2 7.2 7.8 6.9 5.6 3.7 12-90 6.2 5.7 5.6 5.7 6,1 6.7 6.6 6.9 6.0 4.9 3.7 3.6 1-91 6.1 5.6 5.6 5 „7 6.0 6.6 6.4 6.7 5.9 5.1 4.3 4.6 5.5 2-91 5.9 5.4 5.4 5.4 5,7 6.1 5.9 6.1 5.4 4.6 3.9 3.9 4.1 2.7 3-91 5.4 5.0 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.2 5.2 4.5 3.7 2.9 2.7 2.4 0.9 133.4 133.8 134.2 134.8 135.1 -Q .9 135.0 4-91 5.2 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.2 4.9 4.9 4.2 3.5 2.9 2.7 2.5 1.5 0.9 2.7 5-91 5.1 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.8 5.0 4.8 4.8 4.2 3.5 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.0 1.8 3.2 3.6 6-91 5.0 4.6 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.0 3.4 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.1 2.0 3.0 3.1 2.7 7-91 4.9 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.4 3.9 3.4 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.2 2.1 2.9 3.0 2.7 2.7 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 a ll urban Th e CPI is for 135.3 135.7 136.0 136.3 consumers. P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k of St. A u g u s t 14, 1 991 Louis C o n s u m e r P r i c (C o m p o u n d e d Term inal I n i t i a l 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 I n d Rates e x - F o o d of C hange) Month 1 9 8 2 ~ 8 4 = 100 Month 12-89 e A n n u a l 9-90 8-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 2-91 1-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 130.2 1-90 21.5 2-90 14.9 8.6 3-90 10.4 5.2 1.8 4-90 7.4 3.1 0.5 -0 .9 5-90 5.9 2.3 0.3 -0 .5 0.0 6-90 6.3 3.5 2.3 2.5 4.2 131.1 131.3 131.2 131.2 8.5 132.1 132.8 7-90 6.4 4.0 3.1 3.5 5.0 7.5 8-90 6.0 4.0 3.2 3.5 ' .v.6 6.2 5.1 3.7 4.4 5.6 4.6 3.7 3.7 4.5 5.4 4.6 4.0 4.1 4.6 4.6 5.4 4.8 4.4 4.6 5.0 5.5 4.3 4.9 4.3 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.6 4.6 5.2 4.7 4.4 4.6 4.8 4.9 4.5 7.4 3.9 4.3 3.8 3.4 3.3 3.3 2.9 2.1 2.2 -2 .6 135.4 3.7 135.7 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.3 5.5 4.9 3.3 3.5 4.0 3.5 3.7 4.2 3 .7 3.9 3.5 3.7 3.8 4.0 3.9 3.9 4.2 3.7 3.3 3.4 6.5 133.2 133.6 134.1 134.7 134.9 1.8 135.7 3-91 4.7 3.6 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.1 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.2 2.4 0.0 2.7 4-91 5.0 4.0 3.7 3.8 4.2 4.6 4.2 3.9 4.0 4.0 3.9 3.6 4.1 3.0 5.9 9.2 3.8 3.5 3.5 3.5 3 .3 3.0 3.2 2.2 3.9 4.5 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.0 4.5 5.1 3.1 6.3 1.3 2.1 2.0 -0 .3 -0 .4 -6 .8 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 5-91 4.7 3.7 3.4 3.5 3.9 4.2 6-91 4.8 3.9 3.6 3.7 4.0 4.4 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.1 2.2 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 7-91 4.1 3.3 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.5 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 136.7 0.0 Prepared by Federal A u g u s t 1 4 , 1991 C o n s u m e r P r i c (C o m p o u n d e d Term inal Month 12-89 I n i t i a l 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 1-90 73.0 2-90 23.7 -1 1.5 3-90 12.0 -9 .9 -8 .3 4-90 8.9 -6 .7 -4 .2 0.0 5-90 6.2 -6 .0 -4 .0 -1 .8 -3 .7 6-90 6.5 -3 .4 -1 .2 1.2 1.9 7.7 7-90 5.0 -3 .4 -1 .7 0.0 0.0 1.9 -3 .6 8-90 11.2 4.4 7.3 10.7 13.6 20.0 26.7 66.5 e An n u a l I n d e Rates x - E n e r g Reserve 137.4 Bank 136.6 of St. Louis y of Change) Month 8-90 136.7 1982-84=100 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 98.5 97.5 96.8 96.8 96.5 97.1 96.8 101.0 9-90 17.8 12.3 16.2 20.8 25.5 34.0 44.2 76.4 86.8 10-90 21.8 17.1 21.3 26.3 31.3 39.6 49.0 72.3 75.3 64.4 11-90 20.2 15.9 19.4 23.5 27.2 33.3 39.1 52.4 48.0 31.7 5.5 19.9 22.6 26.9 30.4 38.6 32.4 18.0 0.0 -5 .3 14.3 16.0 18.7 20.4 24.9 18.0 5.2 -9 .4 -16.0 -25.6 12-90 17.9 13.8 16.7 1-91 13.8 9.8 12.0 106.4 110.9 111.4 110.9 ^108.2 2-91 8.9 5.1 6.6 8.0 8.9 10.4 10.7 12.9 5.8 -5 .5 -17.8 -24.3 -32.4 -3 8.5 3-91 6.0 2.3 3.5 4,5 5.0 5.9 5.7 6.9 0.3 -9 .5 -19.7 -25.0 -30.7 -33.1 -27.1 4-91 5.1 1.6 2.6 3.5 3.8 4.5 4.2 5.1 -0 .7 -9 .3 -17.9 -21.9 -25.6 -25.6 -18.1 -8 .0 5-91 5.8 2.6 3.6 4.5 4.9 5.6 5.4 6.4 1.2 -6 .3 -13.5 -1 6.3 -18.4 -16.5 -7 .5 4.2 18.1 6-91 4.8 1.7 2.6 3.4 3.6 4.2 3.9 4.6 -0 .1 -6 .8 -13.2 -15.6 -17.2 -15.4 -8 .4 -1 .2 2.4 -1 1.2 7-91 4.2 1.3 2.2 2.9 3.0 3.5 3.2 3.8 -0 .5 -6 .6 -12.3 -14.3 -15.5 -13.7 -7 .7 -2 .1 0.0 -8 .0 -4 .7 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 103.9 101.2 100.5 101.9 100.9 100.5 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. L o u i s A u g u s t 14, 1 9 9 1 3 P r o d u c e r P r ic e P e rce n t In d e x C h a n g e F ro m — F in is h e d Previous G o o d s Y e a r Seasonally Adjusted Pe rce n t P ercent 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 P re p a re d P r o d u c e r P r i c e I n (C o m p o u n d e d Terminal Month 12-89 I n i t i a l 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 d e x - An n u a l Rates F i n i s h e by d Federal G Reserve 10-90 of St. Louis o o d s 1982 9-90 B a n k of Change) Month 8-90 1991 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 = 100 4-91 5-91 6-91 117.5 1-90 22-9 2-90 10.3 -1 .0 117.4 117.3 3-90 6.4 -1 .0 -1.0 4-90 4.5 -1 .0 -1.0 -1 .0 117.2 117.6 5-90 4.4 0.3 0.7 1.5 4.2 6-90 3.7 0.2 0.5 1.0 2*1 7-90 3.7 0.9 1.2 1.8 2.8 2.1 4.2 8-90 5.0 2.6 3.3 4.1 5.5 5.9 9.0 14.1 9-90 6.2 4.2 5.0 6.1 7.5 8.4 11.3 15.1 16.2 10-90 7.1 5.5 6.3 7.4 8.9 9.9 12.5 15.4 16.1 16.0 11-90 6.9 5.4 6.2 7.1 8.3 9.0 10.9 12.7 12.3 10.4 5.0 12-90 5.9 4.5 5.0 5.7 6.6 6.9 a. 2 9.0 7.7 5.1 0.0 -4 .8 1-91 5.5 4.2 4.7 5.2 6.0 6.2 7.1 7.6 6.4 4.0 0.3 -1 .9 1.0 2~91 4.4 3.1 3.5 3.9 4.4 4 .4 5.0 5.1 3.7 1.4 -1 .9 -4 .2 -3 .9 -8 .5 117.6 0.0 118.0 119.3 120.8 122.3 122.8 122.3 Ì22.4 121.5 3-91 3.9 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.7 3.7 4.1 4.1 2.7 0.7 -2 .1 -3 .9 -3 .5 -5 .7 -2 .9 4-91 3.6 2.4 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.6 3.5 2.3 0.4 -2 ,0 -3 .3 -2 ,9 -4 .2 -2 .0 -1 .0 5-91 3.8 2.7 3.0 3.3 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.9 2.8 1.2 -0 .7 -1 .6 -1 .0 -1 .5 1.0 3.0 6-91 3.4 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.1 2.1 0.7 -1 .1 -1 .9 -1 .5 -1 .9 -0 .2 0.7 1.5 -3 .9 7-91 3.0 2.0 2.2 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.7 2.6 1.6 0.3 -1 .3 -2 .1 -1 .7 -2 .1 -0 .8 -0 .2 0.0 -3 .4 -2 .9 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 121.2 121.1 7.2 121.8 121.4 121.1 1 4 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. L o u i s A u g u s t 9, 199 1 C i v i li a n E m p lo y m e n t a n d U n e m p lo y m e n t R a t e Seasonally Adjusted Percent Millions of Persons S h a d e d area P e rce n ta g e s represents a are rates annual period of of business ch a n g e for recession. periods indicated. P re p a re d C i v i l i a (C o m p o u n d e d Te ra in a l Month 12-89 n E m A nnual I n i t i a l p l o y m Rates e n by Federal Reserve B a n k o f St, Louis t of Chang e) Honth Thousands of Persons 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 117,945 1-90 -0 .1 2-90 0.6 1.3 3-90 0.9 1.5 118,074 1.6 118,235 4-90 0.3 0.5 0.1 -1 .5 5-90 0.7 0.8 0.7 0.2 1.9 118,090 6-90 0.5 0.6 0.4 Q.O 0.7 118,277 -0 .4 118,237 7-90 -0 .1 -0 .1 -0 .4 -0 .9 -0 .7 -2 .0 -3 .5 8-90 -0 .3 -0 .4 -0 .6 -1 .1 -1 .0 -2 .0 -2 .7 -1 .9 9-90 -0 .1 -0 .1 -0 .3 -0 .6 -0 .4 -1 .0 -1 .2 0.0 117,882 117,690 2.0 117,883 10-90 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .7 -0 .6 -1.1 -1 .3 -0 .5 0.2 -1 .5 11-90 -0 .5 -0 .6 -0 .8 -1.1 -1 .0 -1 .5 -1 .7 -1 .3 -1 .0 -2 .5 12-90 -0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .5 -0 .7 -0 .7 -1 .0 -1 .1 -0 .6 -0 .3 -1.0 -0 .8 1.9 1-91 -0 .8 -0 .9 -1.1 -1 .3 -1 .3 -1 .7 -1 .9 -1 .6 -1 .6 -2 .4 -2 .7 -2 .3 -6 .5 2-91 -0 .8 -0 .8 -1 .0 -1 .2 -1 .2 -1 .5 -1 .7 -1 .4 -1 .3 -2 .0 -2 .1 -1 .6 -3 .3 0.0 3-91 -0 .8 -0 .9 -1 .0 -1 .3 -1 .2 -1 .5 -1 .7 -1 .4 -1 .4 -1 .9 -2 .0 -1 .6 -2 .8 -0 .9 -1 .7 4-91 -0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .5 -0 .7 -0 .6 -0 .8 -0 .9 -0 .5 -0 .4 -0 .7 -0 .6 0.0 -0 .4 1.6 2.5 6.8 5-91 -0 .8 -0 .9 -1 .0 -1 .2 -1 .2 -1 .4 -1 .5 -1 .3 -1 .2 -1 .6 -1 .7 -1 .3 -2 .0 -0 .8 -1 .1 -0 .8 -7 .9 6-91 -0 .6 -0 .6 -0 .8 -0 .9 -0 .9 -1 .1 -1 .1 -0 .9 -0 .8 -1 .1 -1 .1 -0 .7 -1 .2 -0.1 -0 .1 0.4 -2 .6 3.1 7-91 -0 .7 -0 .7 -0 .8 -1 .0 -0 .9 -1.1 -1 .2 -1 .0 -0 .9 -1 .2 -1 .2 -0 .9 -1 .3 -0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .1 -2 .3 0.6 -1 .8 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 117,733 -3 .5 117,386 117,574 Ì16,922 116,918 116,754 117,398 116,591 116,884 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. A u g u s t 2, 1 9 9 1 116,712 Louis P a y r o ll E m p lo y m e n t Seasonally Adjusted Millions of Persons S h a d e d area P e rce n ta ge s Millions of Persons represents a are rates annual period of of business ch a n g e for recession. periods indicated. P re p a re d P a y r o l l (C o m p o u n d e d Terminal Honth 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 I n i t i a l Month Persons 7-90 8-90 6-90 E m p A n n u a l l o y m Rates e n by Federal Reserve B a n k 10-90 Louis t of Change) Thousands 9-90 of St. 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 of 4-91 5-91 6-91 109,416 1-90 2.5 2-90 3.4 4.2 3-90 2.8 2,9 1.6 4-90 2.1 1.9 0.8 0.0 5-90 2.5 2.5 1.9 2.0 6-90 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.8 2.8 1.4 7-90 1.7 1.6 1.0 0.9 1.2 -0 .2 -1 .8 8-90 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.5 0.6 -0 .5 -1 .5 -1 .2 9-90 1.1 1.0 0.5 0.3 0.4 -0 .5 -1 .2 -0 .8 109,792 109,933 109,934 4.1 110,304 110,435 110,269 110,160 -0 .5 110,113 10-90 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0 .7 -1 .2 -1 .0 -1 .0 -1 .4 11-90 0.6 0.4 0.0 -0 .2 -0 .3 -1 .0 -1 .5 -1 .4 -1 .4 -1 .9 -2 .4 12-90 0.4 0.2 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .4 -1.1 -1 .5 -1 .4 -1 .5 -1 .8 -2 .0 -1 .5 1-91 0.2 0.0 -0 .4 -0 .6 -0 .6 -1 .2 -1 .6 -1 .5 -1 .6 -1 .9 -2 .0 -1 .9 109,982 109,761 109,621 -2 .2 109,418 2-91 0.0 -0 .2 -0 .6 -0 .8 -0 .8 -1 .4 -1 .7 -1 .7 -1 .8 -2 .1 -2 .2 -2 .2 -2 .5 -2 .8 3-91 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .7 -0 .9 - l . o -1 .5 -1 .8 -1 .9 -1 .9 -2 .2 -2 .3 -2 .3 -2 .6 -2 .Ô 4-91 -0 .3 -0 .5 -0 .8 -1 .0 -1 .1 -1 .5 -1 .8 -1 .8 -1 .9 -2 .1 -2 .3 -2 .2 -2 .4 -2 .5 -2 .3 -1 .8 5-91 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .7 -0 .8 -0 .9 -1 .3 -1 .5 -1 .5 -1 .5 -1 .7 -1 .7 -1 .6 -1 .6 -1 .4 -1 .0 -0 .1 109,160 -2 .8 108,902 108,736 1.7 108,887 6-91 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .6 -0 .8 -0 .8 -1 .2 -1 .4 -1 .4 -1 .4 -1 .5 -1 .5 -1 .4 -1 .4 -1 .2 -0 .8 -0 .1 0.7 -0 .2 7-91 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .6 -0 .8 -0 .8 -1 .2 -1 .4 -1 .3 -1 .3 -1 .4 -1 .4 -1 .3 -1 .3 -1.1 -0 .8 -0 .2 0.3 -0.4 -0 .6 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 108,866 108,815 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. L o u i s A u g u s t 2, 1 9 9 1 6 S e r v i c e - P r o d (C o m p o u n d e d rerainal Month 12-89 1-90 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 u c i n A n n u a l I n i t i a l Honth Persons 6-90 7-90 8-90 g E m Rates p l o y m e n t of Change) Thousands 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 of 4-91 5-91 6-91 84,226 3.6 3.4 3.3 3-90 3.4 3.3 3.2 4-90 2.9 2.6 2.3 1.3 5-90 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 5.7 6-90 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.2 4.1 2.6 7-90 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.0 2.3 0.6 -1 .4 8-90 2.2 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.6 0.3 -0 .8 -0 .3 9-90 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.4 0.4 -0 .3 0.2 0.7 10-90 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.3 -0 .2 0.2 0.4 11-90 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.1 1.0 0.3 -0 .2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 12-90 1.5 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.8 0.2 -0 .2 0.0 0.1 -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .5 1-91 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.7 0.1 -0 .2 0.0 0.0 -0.1 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .1 2-91 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.5 -0 .1 -0 .4 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .5 -0 .7 -0 .9 -1 .6 3-91 1,0 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.3 -0 .2 -0 .5 -0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .6 -0 .7 -0 .9 -1.0 -1 .5 -1 .3 4-91 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.2 -0 .3 -0 .6 -0 .5 -0 .5 -0 .7 -0 .8 -0 .9 -1 .1 -1 .4 -1 .3 -1 .2 5-91 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 -0 .1 -0 .4 -0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .4 -0 .5 -0 .6 -0 .6 -0 .7 -0 .4 0.1 1.4 6-91 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.3 -0 .1 -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .2 0.2 1.0 0.5 7-91 0,8 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 -0 .1 -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .5 -0 .2 0.0 0.4 O 84,453 2-90 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 84,678 84,769 85,163 85,342 85,242 85,223 85,271 0.1 85,277 85,280 85,246 85,237 85,121 85,025 84,942 o d s - P r o d u (C o m p o un d e d Terminal Month 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 I n i t i a l Month Persons 7-90 6-90 8-90 1-90 -1 .0 2-90 3.1 7.3 3-90 0.7 1.6 -3 .9 4-90 -0 .6 -0 .4 -4 .1 -4 .2 5-90 -0 .7 -0 .6 -3 .1 -2 .7 6-90 -0 .9 -0 .9 -2 .9 -2 .5 -1 .7 -2 .3 7-90 -1 .3 -1 .3 -2 .9 -2 .7 -2 .2 -2 .7 -3 .1 8-90 -1 .6 -1 .7 -3 .1 -3 .0 -2 .7 -3 .2 -3 .7 c i n g A n n u a l E m Rates p l o y m e n 10-90 85,036 6-91 Bank of St. Louis t of C hange) Thousands 9-90 Reserve O o 5-91 85,077 M3 G O Prepared by Federal A u g u s t 2 , 1991 85,040 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 of 4-91 5-91 6-91 25,190 25,339 25,255 25,165 -1 .1 25,141 25,093 25,027 -4 .2 24,937 9-9Q -2 .0 -2.1 -3 .3 -3 .2 -3 .1 -3 .5 -3 .9 -4 .4 -4 .5 10-90 -2 .4 -2 .6 -3 .7 -3 .7 -3 .6 -4.1 -4 .6 -5 .0 -5 .5 -6 .4 24,842 24,705 11-90 -3 .2 -3 .4 -4 .5 -4 .6 -4 .6 -5 .2 -5 „8 -6 .4 -7 .1 -8 .4 -1 0.4 12-90 -3 .3 -3 .5 -4 .5 -4 .6 -4 .7 -5 .2 -5 .6 -6 .1 -6 .6 -7 .3 -7 .8 -5 .1 1-91 -3 .8 -4 .0 -5 .0 -5.1 -5 .2 -5 .7 -6 .1 -6 .6 -7 .1 -7 .8 -8 .2 -7 .1 -9 .1 2-91 -4 .0 -4 .2 -5.1 -5 .2 -5 .3 -5 .8 -6 .2 -6 .7 -7 .1 -7 .6 -7 .9 -7.0 -8 .0 -6 .8 3-91 -4 .3 -4 .5 -5 .3 -5 .5 -5 .6 -6 .0 -6 .4 -6 .8 -7 .2 -7 .6 -7 .9 -7 .2 -7 .9 -7 .3 -7 .8 4-91 -4 .2 -4 .5 -5 .2 -5 .4 -5 .4 -5 .8 -6 .2 -6 .5 -6 .8 -7.1 -7 .2 -6 .6 -7 .0 -6 .2 -6 .0 24,481 24,375 24,181 24,039 23,877 23,794 -4.1 5-91 -3 .9 -4 .0 -4 .7 -4 .8 -4 .8 -5 -1 -5 .4 -5 .6 -5 .8 -5 .9 -5 .9 -5.1 -5 .1 -4 .1 -3 .2 -0 .8 2.7 6-91 -3 .8 -4 .0 -4 .6 -4 .7 -4 .7 -5 .0 -5 .2 -5 .4 -5 .5 -5 .6 -5 .5 -4 .8 -4 .8 -3 .8 -3 .1 -1 .5 -0 .1 -2 .9 7-91 -3 .6 -3 .8 -4 .4 -4 .4 -4 .4 -4 .7 -4 .8 -5 .0 -5 .1 -5 .1 -5 .0 -4 .3 -4 .2 -3 .3 -2 .6 -1 .2 -0 .3 -1 .7 -0 .5 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 23,847 23,789 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. A u g u s t 2, 1991 7 23,779 Louis C h a n g e i n t h e E m p lo y m e n t P e rce n t C o s t C h a n g e In d e x F r o m a n d It s C o m p o n e n t s Previous Y e a r Seasonally Adjusted P e rcent Percent 8 Total c o m p e n s a tio n is t h e s u m of benefits and w a ge s and salaries for private industry P re p a re d E m p l o y m e n t C o s t I n d (C o m p o u n d e d Terainal Quarter I n i t i a l 3-86 4-86 2.7 1-87 2.9 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 e x - A n n u a l T o Rates t a l C o m by p e workers. Federal n s a t i o 1-89 o f St. Louis n June 4-88 B a n k of Change) Quarter 3-88 Reserve 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 1989 3-90 = 100 4-90 1-91 90.2 3.1 90.9 2-87 3.0 3.1 3.1 3-87 3.2 3.4 3.6 4.0 4-87 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.7 3.5 1-88 3.6 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.4 5.2 2-88 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.5 4.6 5.2 5.2 3-88 3.8 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.7 4.5 3.8 4-88 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.4 5.1 1-89 4.0 4.1 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.6 4.3 4.6 4.2 2-89 4.1 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.5 4.9 3-89 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.8 5.1 5.3 4-89 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.9 4.4 1-90 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.0 91.6 92.5 93.3 94.5 95.7 96.6 97.8 98.8 100.0 101.3 102.4 5.6 103.8 2-90 4.3 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.8 4.9 4.8 4.8 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.3 5.1 3-90 4.3 4,5 4.5 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.9 4.9 4.8 5.0 4.7 4.3 4-90 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.0 3.8 1-91 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4 .7 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.6 4.7 4.4 4.2 4 .2 4.6 2-91 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.8 4.7 4.7 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.7 4.9 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 Data are tor the la s t month of 105.1 106.2 107.2 1Ü8.4 109.7 quarter. P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. J uly 3 0 1991 , 8 Louis I n d u s t r i a l P r o d u c t i o n Seasonally Adjusted 1987=100 115 1987=100 110 105 1 0 0 95 90 1----------- 8 5 1986 1985 S h a d e d area P e rce n ta g e s represents a are rates annual 1987 period of of business ch a n g e for 1989 1988 1990 recession. periods indicated. P re p a re d I n d u s t r i a (C o m p o u n d e d Term inal Month 12-89 l 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 1-90 -11.5 2-90 -0 ,6 11.8 3-90 1.1 8.1 4-90 0.6 4.9 1.7 -1 .1 5-90 1.8 5.4 3.4 2.8 6.8 6-90 2.8 5.9 4.5 4 *5 7.4 8.0 6-90 7-90 8-90 P A n n u a l I n i t i a l 1-90 1991 r o d Rates u c t i o by Federal R eserve B a n k of St. Louis n of Change) 1987 Month 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 = 100 6-91 107.5 108.5 4.5 108.9 108.8 109.4 110.1 7-90 2.9 5.5 4.3 4.2 6.0 5.6 3.3 8-90 2.6 4.8 3.7 3.6 4.8 4.1 2.2 1.1 9-90 2.5 4.4 3.3 3.1 4.0 3.3 1,8 1.1 10-90 1.4 3.0 1.9 1.6 2.0 1.1 -0 .5 -1 .8 -3 .2 -7 .3 11-90 -0 .3 0.9 -0 .2 -0 ,8 -0 .8 -2 .0 -3 .9 -5 .6 -7 .7 -1 1.8 -16.1 12-90 -1 .3 -0 .3 -1 .4 -2 .1 -2 .2 -3 .4 -5 .2 -6 .8 -8 .7 -11.7 -13.9 -11.5 1-91 -1 .7 -0 .8 -1 .9 -2 .5 -2 .7 -3 .8 -5 .4 -6 .8 -8 .3 -10.5 -11.5 -9.1 -6 .5 110.4 110.5 110.6 1.1 109.9 108.3 107.2 106.6 2-91 -2 .3 -1 .5 -2 .6 -3 .2 -3 .4 -4 .5 -5 .9 -7 .2 -8 .5 -1 0 .3 -11.0 -9 .3 -8 .1 -9 .7 3-91 -2 .7 -2 .0 -3 .0 -3 .6 -3 .8 -4 .8 -6 .1 -7 .2 -8 .4 -9 .9 -1 0 .4 -8 .9 -Ô.0 -8 .7 -7 .7 4-91 -2 .1 -1 .5 -2 .4 -2 .9 -3 .0 -3 .9 -5 .0 -5 .9 -6 .7 -7 .8 -7 .8 -6 .1 -4 .7 -4 .1 -1 .1 5.9 5-91 -1 .4 -0 .8 -1 .6 -2 .0 -2 .0 -2 .7 -3 .7 -4 .3 -4 .9 -5 .6 -5 .4 -3 .5 -1 .8 -0 .6 2.7 8.3 10.7 6-91 -0 .9 -0 .3 -1 .0 -1 .3 -1 .3 -1 .9 -2 .7 -3 .3 -3 .7 -4 .2 -3 .8 -1 .9 -0 .2 1.1 4.0 8.2 9.5 8.2 7-91 -0 .6 0.1 -0 .6 -0 .9 -0 .9 -1 .4 -2.1 -2 .5 -2 .9 -3 .2 -2 .8 -1 .0 0.6 1.9 4.4 7.6 8.2 7.0 5.7 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 105.7 105.0 105.5 106.4 107.1 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. A u g u s t 16, 1 9 9 1 107.6 Louis P e r s o n a l In c o m e i n Seasonally 1 9 8 2 D o lla r s Adjusted Trillions of Dollars Trillions of Dollars 3 . 6 3 . 3 3 . 0 2 . 7 2 . 4 The personal S h a d e d area P e rce n ta ge s c o n s u m p tio n expenditures represents a are rates annual period of of d e f l a t o r is b u siness c h a n g e for used to calculate real personal periods indicated. P re p a re d D i s p o s a b l e P e r s o n a (C om p o un d e d Terminal Ho nth 12-89 l I n c o m A n n u a l I n i t i a l 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 in c o m e recession. 7-90 8-90 e Rates i n by 1 9 8 2 Federal D o Reserve l l a B a n k of 10-90 Louis r s of Change) Honth 9-90 St. 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 B illio n s of D o llars Annual Rates 6-91 2,893.1 1-90 -0.2 2-90 1.5 3.3 3-90 2.1 3,3 3.3 4-90 0.8 1.1 0.0 -3 .1 5-90 0.6 0.8 -0 .1 -1 .7 6-90 0.9 1.2 0.6 -0 .2 1.3 2.8 7-90 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.2 1.3 2.1 1.5 8-90 0.2 0.2 -0 .3 -1 .0 -0 .4 -0 .5 -2.1 -5 .5 9-90 -0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .8 -1 .5 -1 .2 -1 .4 -2 .8 -4 .8 -4 .1 10-90 -1 .2 -1 .4 -1 .9 -2 .6 -2 .6 -3 .0 -4 .4 -6 .3 -6 .7 -9 .2 11-90 -0 .9 -1 .0 -1 .4 -2 .0 -1 .8 -2 .1 -3 .0 -4 .1 -3 .7 -3 .5 2.6 12-90 -0.4 -0 .4 -0 .7 -1 .2 -0 .9 -1 .0 -1 .6 -2 .2 -1 .4 -0 .5 4.2 5.8 1-91 -1.1 -1 .2 -1 .6 -2 .1 -2 .0 -2 .2 -2 .9 -3 .6 -3 .2 -3.0 -0 .8 -2 .5 -10.2 2-91 -1.0 -1.1 -1 .4 -1 .9 -1 .7 -1 .9 -2 .5 -3 .0 -2 .6 -2 .3 -0 .5 -1 .5 -5 .0 0.5 3-91 -0.7 -0 .7 -1 .0 -1 .4 -1 .2 -1 .3 -1 .7 -2 .1 -1 .6 -1 .2 0.5 -0 .1 -2 .0 2.4 4-91 -0 .7 -0 .7 -1 .0 -1 .3 -1 .2 -1 .3 -1 .7 -2 .0 -1 .6 -1 .2 0.2 -0 .3 -1 .7 1.2 1.6 -1 .1 5-91 -0.4 -0 .4 -0 .6 -0 .9 -0 .7 -0 .8 -1 .1 -1 .3 -0 .8 -0 .4 0.9 0.6 -0 .4 2.2 2.8 2.0 5.1 6-91 0.0 0.0 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .5 -0 .7 -0 .2 0.3 1.5 1.4 0.6 3.0 3.6 3.3 5.6 6.0 7-91 -0.1 -0 .1 -0 .3 -0 .5 -0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .6 -0 .7 -0 .3 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.4 2.2 2.6 2.1 3.2 2.3 -1 .3 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 2,900.9 2,908.7 2,901.0 -0 .2 2,900.4 2,907.1 2,910.6 2,896.8 2,886.8 2,863.7 2,869.9 2,883.5 2,857.8 2,858.9 4.4 2,869.2 2,866.6 2,878.6 2,892.7 2,889.5 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. L o u i s A u g u s t 29, 1 9 9 1 10 R e t a il S a le s Seasonally Adjusted Billions of Dollars S h a d e d area Th e is CPI Billions of Dollars represents used P e rce n ta g e s to are a deflate annual period retail rates of of business sales recession. data. ch a n g e for periods indicated. P re p a re d R e t a i l S a l e s (C o m p o u n d e d Terminal Month 12-89 1-90 22.4 2-90 i n I n i t i a l 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 8-90 7-90 1 A n n u a l 9 8 2 Rates - 8 4 D l l a Reserve B a n k of St. 4-91 5-91 Louis r s of Change) H illio n s of Dollars Month 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 6-91 117,307 5.3 -9 .4 0.5 -9 .0 -8 .6 4-90 -1 .7 -8 .6 -8 .2 -7 .8 5-90 -2 .4 -7 .8 -7 .2 -6 .6 6-90 -1 .4 -5 .5 -4 .5 -3 .2 -0 .7 7-90 -1 .2 -4 .7 -3 .7 -2 .5 -0 .7 1.7 -0 .5 -3 .2 -2 .1 -1 .0 -3 .4 -6 .2 -1 .3 -0 .3 -1 .7 -2 .3 1.8 116,434 115,649 115,126 -5 .3 4.0 115,505 115,455 114,844 8-90 -1 .9 -4 .9 -4 .2 9-90 “ 1.5 -4.1 -3 .3 -2 .4 10-90 -2 .3 -4 .7 -4 .1 -3 .4 -2 .7 -2 .2 -3 .6 -4 .7 -3 .9 -9 .3 11-90 -2 .0 -4 ,2 -3 .6 -2 .9 -2 .2 -1 .7 -2 .8 -3 .4 -2 .5 -4 .5 0.5 12-90 -4 .0 -6 .1 ~5.8 -5 .5 -5 .2 -5 .2 -6 ,7 -7 .9 -8 .3 -11.4 -1 2.4 -23.7 1-91 -5 .3 -7 .3 -7 .1 -7 .0 -6 .9 -7 .1 -8 .5 -9 .8 -10.5 -13.4 -14.7 -2 1 .4 -19.0 2-91 -3 .3 -5 .0 -4 .7 -4 .3 -3 .9 -3 .8 -4 .7 -5 .3 -5 .2 -6 .5 -5 .8 -7 .8 1.4 3-91 -2 .8 -4 .4 -4 .0 -3 .6 -3 .3 -3 .0 -3 .8 -4 .2 -3 .9 -4 .8 -3 .9 -5 .0 4-91 -3 .1 -4 .6 -4 .2 -3 .9 -3 .5 -3 .4 -4 .1 -4 .5 -4 .2 -5.1 -4 .3 -5 .3 5-91 -2 .3 -3 .7 -3 .0 -2 .7 -3 .2 -2 .3 6-91 -2 .2 -3 .5 7-91 -1 .9 -3 .1 12-89 1-90 sales o Federal 118,271 3-90 R e ta il by data 115,017 114,086 114,134 111,587 109,646 26.8 111,837 2.2 14.8 3.9 112,198 0.0 7.2 -1 .4 -6 .4 8.1 2.5 1.8 10.8 111,579 112,535 -2 .9 -2 .5 -2 .3 -2 .8 -2 .8 2.1 -3 .1 -2 .7 -2 .4 -2 .1 -2 .6 -2 .8 -2 .5 -3 .0 -2 .1 -2 .5 1.5 6.2 1.6 0.9 4.8 -0 .9 -2 .8 -2 .4 -2 .0 -1 .8 -2 .2 -2 .3 -2.Q -2 .4 -1 .6 -1 .8 1.8 5.7 2.0 1.5 4.2 1.1 3.2 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 6-91 deflated by -3 .3 CPI-U 112,448 112,743 C1982~84-100). P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. L o u i s A u g u s t 13, 1 9 9 1 11 I n v e n t o r ie s C o m p a r e d W M an u fa cturin g it h M o n t h ly S a le s a n d Tra d e S easonally Adjusted - i ------------ 1------------ 1------------ ------------- 1------------ 1-------------1 1 9 8 5 S h a d e d area i | 1 9 8 6 represents a i i r 1 9 8 7 period of business 1 9 8 9 1 9 8 8 recession. P re p a re d B u s i n e s s (C o m p o u n d e d Terainal Month 11-89 I n A nnual I n i t i a l 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 0 6-90 12-89 -3 .0 1-90 -1 .1 0.7 2-90 -1 .1 -0 .2 -1 .1 3-90 -0 .5 0.3 0.1 4-90 0.2 1.0 1.1 2.2 3.2 5-90 1.1 1.9 2.2 3.3 4.4 5.6 6-90 0.2 0.7 0.7 1.2 1.1 0.1 -5.1 7-90 1.2 1.8 2.0 2.7 3.0 3.0 1.7 9.0 8-90 1.8 2.5 2.7 3.3 3.8 3.9 3.4 7.9 7-90 v e n Rates t o r i e by Federal Reserve B a n k o f St. Louis s of Change) Month 8-90 9-90 M illio n s of D ollars 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 810,257 810,742 810,024 1.2 810,830 812,976 816,667 813,118 818,951 6.8 823,468 9-90 2.2 2.8 3.1 3.7 4.1 4.2 3.9 7.1 6.2 5.5 10-90 2.4 3.0 3.2 3.8 4.2 4.3 4.1 6.5 5.7 5.2 11-90 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.7 4.0 4.1 3.9 5.8 5.0 4.4 3.9 3.0 12-90 1.7 2.1 2.2 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.2 3.4 2.4 1.3 -0 .1 -2 .5 827,145 4.8 830,414 832,464 -7 .7 826,941 1-91 2.0 2.4 2.6 2.9 3.1 3.0 2.7 3.9 3.1 2.3 1.6 0.5 -0 .7 6.7 2-91 1.6 1.9 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.3 1.9 2.8 1.9 1.2 0.3 -0 .8 -2 .0 0.9 -4 .6 3-91 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.9 0.4 1.1 0.1 -0 .8 -1 .8 -3 .1 -4 .6 -3 .5 -8 .2 -1 1.8 4-91 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.0 0.6 -0 .3 -1 .2 -2 .1 -3 .2 -4 .4 -3 .6 -6 .8 -7 .9 831,445 828,201 819,615 -3 .9 816,893 5-91 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0 .1 -0 .6 -0 .2 -1 .1 -1 .9 -2 .8 -3 .8 -4 .9 -4 .4 -7 .0 -7 .7 -5 .6 -7 .3 6-91 -0 .3 -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .9 -0 .5 -1 .3 -2 .1 -2 .9 -3 .9 -4 .8 -4 .3 -6 .4 -6 .8 -5 .1 -5 .7 -4 .0 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-91 5-91 811,713 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. A u g u s t 14, 1 9 9 1 12 808,939 Louis G r o s s N a t io n a l P r o d u c t Seasonally Adjusted Trillions of Dollars Trillions of Dollars S h a d e d 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 5 area P e rce n ta g e s represents a are rates a n nual period of of business c h a n g e for 1 9 8 8 recession. periods indicated. P re p a re d G r o s s N a t i o n a l P r o (C o m p o u n d e d Tertainal Quarter 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2.3 1-87 3.7 5.2 2-87 3.9 4.7 4-2 3-87 3.9 4.5 4.2 4-87 4.5 5.0 4.9 5.3 6.6 rH 4.6 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.9 5.1 4.4 4.8 4.7 4.9 5.1 4.4 3.6 CO CO 4-86 2-88 d 2-88 3-88 u Annual I n i t i a l 3-86 1 9 9 1 1 9 9 0 1 9 8 9 c t i n Rates 1 9 8 2 D by o Federal l l a r R e serve B a n k 1-89 St. Louis s of Change) Quarter 4-88 of 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 B illio n s of D o llars Annual Rates 1-91 3,733.6 3,781.2 3,820.3 4.1 3,858.9 3,920.7 3,970.2 4,005.8 3-88 4.2 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 3.8 3.1 2.7 4-88 4.1 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.7 1-89 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.6 3.2 3.0 3.2 4,032.1 4,059.3 3.6 4,095.7 2-89 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6 1.6 3-89 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.7 1.7 4-89 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.3 1-90 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.7 4,112,2 4,129.7 <+,133.2 4,150.6 2-90 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.4 3-90 2.9 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.0 1.2 0.9 4-90 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.9 1.7 1.5 1.3 1.2 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.5 0.1 -0 .1 -1 .6 1-91 2.4 2.4 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.3 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.2 -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .6 -1 .0 -2 .2 -2 .8 2-91 2.2 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .5 -0 .8 -1 .5 -1 .5 -0 .1 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 4,155.1 1.4 4,170.0 4,153.4 4,124.1 4,123.0 S e c o n d q u a r t e r 19 9 1 d a t a a r e p r e l i m i n a r y e s t i m a t e s . P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. A u g u s t 28, 1 9 9 1 13 Louis I m p l i c i t P ercent P r ic e C h a n g e F ro m D e f la t o r Previous Y e a r Seasonally Adjusted P e rce n t P e rcent P r e p a r e d I m p l i c i t P (C om p o un d e d Term inal Quarter I n it ia l 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 r i c e D Ann u a l Rates 4-88 1-89 e f l a t o b y F e d e r a l 3-88 B a n k o f S t. r 1982 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 = 100 3-90 4-90 1-91 115.1 4-86 1.8 1-87 2.6 3.5 2-87 2.8 3.3 3.1 3-87 3.0 3.4 3.3 3.5 4-87 2.7 3.0 2.8 2.6 1.7 1-88 2.7 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.2 2.7 2-88 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.9 3,6 4.4 3-88 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.4 4.0 4.6 4-88 3.3 3.5 3 .5 3.6 3.6 4.1 4.6 4.7 4.7 1-89 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.3 3.9 116.1 117.0 118.0 118.5 119.3 120.6 4.7 122.0 123.4 124.6 2-89 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.9 3-89 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.2 4-89 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.7 3 .7 3.9 4.1 4.0 3,9 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.8 1-90 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.8 2-90 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.7 4.7 125.8 126.8 128.0 129.5 131.0 132.2 3-90 3.6 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.3 4.4 4,2 3.7 4-90 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.0 3.7 3.2 2.8 1-91 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.0 5,2 2-91 3.7 3.8 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.7 4.2 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 Gross N ational The d e fla to r L o u is of Change) Quarter 2-88 R e s e r v e is for Product. Second quarter 1991 data are p re lia in a ry 136.2 estiaates. Prepared by F e deral A u g u s t 2 8 , 1991 14 133.1 134.8 Reserve Bank of St. Louis F i n a l S a l e s i n (C o m p o u n d e d Terminal Quarter I n i t i a l 3-86 4-86 3.9 ^ 1 -8 7 2.5 V " 4-£ 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 1 9 8 2 Ann u a l 3-88 Rates D o l l a r s of Change) Quarter 4-88 B illio n s 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2~90 3-90 4-90 of 3,754.4 3,763.9 1.0 3 ,803.3 3.1 2.6 4.3 3-87 3.6 3.4 4.6 5.0 4-87 3.3 3.1 3.9 3.7 2.3 1-88 3.9 3.9 4.7 4.8 4.7 7.1 2-88 4.1 4.1 4.8 4.9 4.8 6.1 3,850.3 3,872.3 3,939.2 3,988.9 5.1 3,999.5 3-88 3.7 3.7 4.1 4.1 3.9 4.4 3.1 1.1 4-88 3.8 3.8 4.2 4.2 4.0 4.5 3.6 2.8 4,6 1-89 3.7 3.6 4.0 3.9 3.8 4.1 3.3 2.7 3.5 2.4 2-89 3.5 3.4 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.7 3.0 2.4 2.9 2.1 1.7 3-89 3.4 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.4 2.8 2.3 2.6 2.0 1.8 1.8 4,045.2 4,069.6 4,086.6 4,105.1 4,114.4 4-89 3.2 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.0 3.1 2.5 2.1 2.3 1.7 1.5 1.4 0.9 1-90 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.3 3.8 4,152.8 4,145.6 2-90 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.7 2.8 2.3 1.9 2.1 1.6 1.5 1.4 1.3 1.5 -0 .7 3-90 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.3 1.9 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.7 0.6 1.9 4-90 2.8 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.2 1.9 2.0 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 0.9 1.7 1.4 1-91 2.5 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 -0 .1 0.1 -0 .8 -2 .9 2-91 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.0 2.0 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.6 0.0 0.1 -0 .5 -1 .4 0.2 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 4,165.3 Prepared by Federal A u g u s t 2 8 , 1991 P e r s o n a l C o n s u m p t i o n E (C o m p o un d e d x p 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 e Ann u a l I n i t i a l Terrainal Quarter 3-86 n d i t u Rates r e s i n 1 9 8 2 D o l l a 4,179.8 Reserve 1-89 Bank 4,150.7 of 2.2 1-87 1.4 0.7 2-87 2.5 2.6 4.5 3-87 2.9 3.2 4.4 4.3 4-87 2.3 2.3 2.8 1.9 -0 .4 00 CO 3.0 3.2 3.8 3.6 3.2 6.9 2-88 3.0 3.1 3.6 3.4 3.0 4.8 2.7 B illio n s 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 of D o llars Annual Rates 1-91 2,482.2 2,509.9 2,536.6 2,534.2 2,576.8 2,594.1 3.0 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.1 4.3 3.1 3.5 3.2 3.6 3.4 3.2 4.1 3.2 3.5 3.5 1-89 2.7 2.8 3.1 2.9 2.6 3.2 2.3 2.2 1.6 -0 .3 2-89 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.9 2.1 2.0 1.5 0 .5 1.3 3-89 2.8 2.8 3.0 2.9 2.7 3.1 2.5 2.5 2.3 1 .8 2.9 4.6 4-89 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.3 2.6 2.0 1.9 1.6 1 .2 1.7 1.9 -0 .8 1-90 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.5 1 .2 1.5 1.6 0.1 1.1 2-90 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.6 1.4 1 .0 1.3 1.3 0.2 0.7 3-90 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.3 1.8 1.7 1.5 1 .3 1.5 1.6 0.8 1.3 1.5 2.7 4-90 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.8 1.6 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.0 0 .7 0.8 0.7 -0 .1 0.1 -0 .2 -0 .4 -3 .4 1-91 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.4 1.5 1.1 1.0 0.7 0 .4 0.5 0.4 -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .5 -0 .8 -2 .4 -1 .5 2-91 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.2 1.1 0.9 0 .7 0.8 0.7 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.1 -0 .7 0.6 2.8 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4- . 88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 00 00 Louis r s 3.1 -C-. St. of Change) Quarter 4 - 88 4,149.0 2,477.8 4-86 3-88 D o llars Annual Rates 1-91 2,616.4 2,638.8 2,636.7 2,645.3 2,675.3 2,669.9 2,677.3 0.2 2,678.8 2,696.8 2,673.6 2,663.7 2,682.1 S e c o n d q u a r t e r 1991 data are p r e l i a i n a r y estimates. P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. A u g u s t 28, 1 9 9 1 15 Louis R e s i d e n t i a l F i x e d I n (C om p o un d e d Terminal Quarter v e I n i t i a l 3-86 4-86 4-86 0.4 1-87 -4 .0 -8 .1 2-87 -1 -3 -2 .1 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 s t m An n u a l 3-88 e n Rates t i n 1 9 8 2 D o l l a r s of Change) Quarter 4-88 1-89 3-89 2-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 B illio n s of D ollars Annual Rates 1-91 200.3 i9 6 . 1 4.4 198.1 3-87 -2 .3 -3 .2 -0 .6 -5 .3 4-87 -1 .7 -2 .2 -0 .2 -2 .4 0.6 1-88 -2 .6 -3 .2 -1 .9 -3 .9 -3 .1 -6 .8 2-88 -1 .3 -1 .6 -0 .2 -1 .3 0.1 -0 .2 6.8 3-88 -1 .1 -1 .3 -0 .1 -1 .0 0,2 0.0 3.6 4-88 -1 .0 -1 .2 -0 .1 -0 .9 0.0 -0 .1 2.2 0.0 -0 .4 1-89 -1 .3 -1 -5 -0 .6 -1 .3 -0 .6 -0 .8 0.7 -1 .2 -2.0 -3 .6 2-89 -2 .2 -2 .5 -1 .8 -2 .6 -2 .2 -2 .6 -1 .8 -3 .8 -5 .2 -7 .5 195.5 195.8 192.4 195.6 0.4 195.8 195.6 193.8 188.1 -11.3 3-89 -2 .7 -3 .0 -2 .4 -3 ,2 -2 .9 -3 .4 -2 .8 -4 .6 -5 .8 -7 .6 -9 .5 -7 .6 4-89 -2 .9 -3 .2 -2 .7 -3 .4 -3 ,2 -3 .6 -3 .2 -4 .8 -5 .8 -7 .1 -8 .2 -6 .6 -5 .5 1-90 -1 .7 -1 .9 -1 .3 -1 .8 -1 .5 -1 .7 -1.1 -2.1 -2 .6 -3 .0 -2 .8 0.1 4 .3 184.4 181.8 15.1 188.3 2-90 -2 .4 -2 .6 -2 .1 -2 .7 -2 .4 -2 .7 -2 .2 -3 .3 -3 .8 -4 .4 -4 .6 -2 .8 -1 .2 1.1 -1 1.2 3-90 -3 .6 -3 .8 -3 .5 -4 .1 -4 .0 -4 .4 -4 .2 -5 .3 -6 ,0 -6 .8 -7 .3 -6 .5 -6 .2 -6 .4 -15.6 -19.8 4-90 -4 .7 -5 .0 -4 .8 -5 .4 -5 .4 -5 .9 -5 .8 -7.0 -7 .8 -8 .6 -9 .3 -9 .0 -9 .3 -1 0.2 -17.3 -20.2 -20.6 1-91 -6 .0 -6 .3 -6 .2 -6 .9 -7 .0 -7 .5 -7 .6 -8.8 -9 .7 -10.7 -11.5 -11.5 -12.2 -13.4 -19.4 -21.9 -23.0 -25.3 2-91 -5 .5 -5 .8 -5 .7 -6 .3 -6 .4 -6 .8 -6 .8 -7 .9 -8 .6 -9 .4 -10.0 -9 .9 -10.2 -1 0.9 -15.4 -16.4 -15.3 -1 2.4 2.7 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 182.8 173.0 Prepared by F e d e ra l A u g u s t 2 8 , 1991 N o n r e s i d e n t i a l F i x e d (Com p o un d e d Terrainal Quarter 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 I n I n i t i a l Quarter Annual Rates 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-86 4.5 1-87 0.2 -4 .0 2-87 4.0 3.8 12.1 3-87 7.1 8.0 14.5 17.0 4-87 5.8 6.1 9.7 8.5 0.6 1-88 6.7 7.2 10.1 9.5 5.9 11.4 2-88 7.9 8.5 11.2 11.0 9.1 13.5 15.7 3-88 7.1 7.5 9.6 9.1 7.1 9.4 8.4 1.6 4-88 5.6 5.7 7.1 6.3 4.3 5.3 3.3 -2.4 -6 .3 1-89 5.9 6.0 7.4 6.7 5.1 6.0 4.7 1.2 1.0 v e An n u a l s t m Rates e n t i n 1 9 8 2 D o l l a Reserve 1-89 Bank 152.8 of S t. Louis r s of Change) B illio n s 4-88 163.3 151.8 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2~90 3-90 of Dollars 4-90 1-91 435.7 431.3 443.8 461.6 462.3 475.0 492.6 494.6 486.6 8,9 497.1 2-89 6.0 6.1 7.3 6 .7 5.3 6.1 5.1 2.6 2.9 7.9 6.9 3-89 6.0 6.1 7.2 6.7 5.5 6.2 5.3 3.3 3.8 7.4 6.6 6.3 4-89 5 .2 5.3 6 .2 5.6 4.4 4.9 4.0 2.1 2.2 4.5 3.0 1.2 -3 .8 1-90 5.2 5.3 6.1 5.5 4.4 4.9 4.1 2.5 2.7 4.6 3.5 2.4 0.5 5.0 2-90 4.5 4.5 5.2 4.6 3.6 3.9 3.1 1.6 1.6 3.0 1.8 0.6 -1 .3 0.0 -4 .7 3-90 4.8 4.8 5 .4 5.0 4.0 4.3 3.6 2.4 2.5 3.8 3.0 2.2 1.2 2.9 1.8 505.5 513.3 508.4 514.6 508.4 519.3 8.9 4-90 4.5 4.5 5.1 4.6 3.7 4.0 3.3 2.1 2.2 3.3 2.5 1.8 0.9 2.2 1.2 4.4 0.1 1-91 3.2 3.1 3.6 3.1 2.1 2.2 1.5 0.3 0.2 0.9 0.0 -1 .0 -2 .2 -1 .8 -3 .5 -3 .0 -8 .5 -16.3 519.4 2-91 2.9 2.9 3.3 2.7 1.9 1.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 -0 .2 -1 .1 -2 .1 -1 .8 -3.1 -2 .7 -6 .3 -9 .4 -1 .8 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 496.8 494.5 S e c o n d q u a r t e r 1 9 9 1 d a t a a r e p r e l i n i n a r y estiraates. 16 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St- L o u i s A u g u s t 28, 1 9 9 1 E x p o r t s i n (C o m p o un d e d Terainal Quarter 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 4-86 7.1 .1-87 9.8 12.7 ^2-87 13.7 17.2 21.9 3-87 15.4 18.3 21.3 20.6 3-87 4-87 1 9 8 2 A n n u a l I n i t i a l Quarter Annual Rates 1-88 2-88 3-88 l l a r s 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 of 3-90 Dollars 4-90 1-91 406.5 440.1 461.2 17.1 19.8 22.3 22.4 24.3 19.5 22.1 24.6 25.5 28.0 31.7 2-88 17.2 18.9 20.2 19.8 19.6 17.2 4.4 3-88 15.6 16.9 17.6 16.8 15.8 13.2 4.9 5.4 15.7 16.9 17.5 16.8 16.0 14.0 8.7 10.9 16.7 15.8 16.8 17.3 16.6 16.0 14.4 10.4 12.5 16.3 15.8 0 00 0 o 418.6 1-88 -P- D of Change) B illio n s 4-88 4-87 1-89 Rates 487.0 521.7 527.3 534.3 555.3 576.1 2-89 15.4 16.3 16.7 16.1 15.5 14.1 10.8 12.5 15.0 14.1 12.4 3-89 14.0 14.7 14.9 14.1 13.3 11.9 8.9 9-8 10.9 9.0 5.8 -0 .5 593.2 4-89 14.0 14.6 14.8 14.1 13.4 12.1 9.5 10.4 11.4 10.1 8.3 6.3 13.5 1-90 13.8 14.3 14.5 13.8 13.2 12.0 9.7 1Q.5 11.4 10.4 9.0 7.9 12.4 11,2 2-90 12.4 12.8 12.8 12.1 11.4 10.1 8.0 8.4 8.9 7.6 6.1 4.5 6.3 2.8 -5 .0 3-90 12.1 12.4 12.4 11.7 11.0 9.8 7.9 8.3 8.6 7.5 6.2 5.0 6.4 4.1 0.8 592.5 611.6 628.1 620.1 630.5 6.9 647.2 4-90 12.0 12.3 12.3 11.6 11.0 9.9 8.2 8.5 8.9 8.0 6.9 6.0 7.3 5.8 4.1 8.9 11.0 1-91 11.3 11.6 11.5 10.9 10.2 9.2 7.5 7.8 8.0 7.1 6.1 5.2 6.2 4.7 3.2 6.0 5.6 0.5 2-91 11.0 11.2 11.1 10.4 9.8 8.8 7.2 7.5 7.7 6.8 5.9 5.1 5.9 4.7 3.4 5.6 5.2 2.4 4.3 3-86 4r86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 Prepared by Fe d e ra l August 28, 1991 I m p o r t s i n (C o m p o un d e d Terrainal Quarter 3-86 4-86 1-87 4-86 0.0 1-87 -0 .6 -1 .2 2-87 4.0 6.1 14.0 2-87 3-87 4-87 1 9 8 2 A n n u a l Rates I n i t i a l Quarter Annual Rates 1-88 2-88 3-88 D o l l a Reserve 1-89 Bank 654.9 of St. Louis r s of Change) B illio n s 4-88 648.0 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 of D o llars 4-90 1-91 541.9 540.2 558.2 3-87 7.8 10.6 17.0 20.1 4-87 8.2 10.4 14.6 14.9 9.9 1-88 6.9 8.3 10.9 9.9 5.1 0.5 2-88 5.9 7.0 8.7 7.4 3.5 0.4 584.4 598.3 599.0 0.3 599.5 3-86 6.3 7.3 8.8 7.8 4.9 3.2 4.7 9.2 4-88 7.0 7.9 9.3 8.5 6.3 5.5 7.2 10.8 12.4 1-89 6.0 6.7 7.8 6.9 4.8 3.9 4.7 6.2 4.8 -2 .3 2-89 6.6 7.3 8.3 7.6 5.9 5.3 6.3 7.8 7.4 5.0 12.8 3-89 6.6 7.2 8.1 7.5 6.0 5.5 6.3 7.5 7.1 5.4 9.6 612.8 631.0 627.3 646.5 6.4 656.6 4-89 6.2 6.8 7.5 6.9 5.5 5.0 5.6 6.6 6.0 4.5 6.9 4.0 1.7 1-90 6.0 6.4 7.1 6.5 5.2 4.7 5.2 6.0 5.4 4.1 5.8 3.5 2.1 659.4 663.5 2.5 2-90 5.6 6.0 6.6 6.0 4.8 4.3 4.7 5.3 4.8 3.5 4.7 2.8 1.6 1.6 0.7 3-90 5.7 6.1 6.7 6.1 5.0 4.6 5.0 5.6 5.1 4.1 5.2 3.8 3.1 3.6 4.1 4-90 4.6 4.9 5.3 4.7 3.6 3.1 3.4 3.7 3.1 2.0 2.6 1.0 -0.1 -0 .5 -1 .5 -2 .6 -1 1.8 1-91 3.8 4.0 4.4 3.8 2.7 2.1 2.3 2.5 1.8 0.7 1.1 -0 .5 -1 .6 -2 .2 -3 .4 -4 .7 -1 0 .4 -8 .8 2-91 4.6 4.8 5.2 4.7 3.7 3.3 3.5 3.7 3.3 2.4 2.9 1.8 1.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 -1 .5 4.2 19.0 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 664.7 7.6 677.0 656.0 641.0 669.5 S e c o n d q u a r t e r 199 1 d a t a a r e p r e l i n i n a r y e s t i m a t e s . P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. L o u i s A u g u s t 28, 1 9 9 1 17 G o v e r n m e n t P u r c h a s e s o f G o o d s (C om p o un d e d Te rainal Quarter 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 a n d Annual Rates 4-88 1-89 I n i t i a l Quarter Annual Rates 2-88 1-88 3-88 S e r v i c e s i n 1 9 8 2 D o l l a r s of Change) B illio n s 3-89 2-89 4-89 4-86 5.8 1-87 2.8 -0 .2 2-87 0.7 -1 .7 -3 .2 3-87 1.9 0.7 1.1 5.5 4-87 2.7 2.0 2.7 5.7 6.0 1-88 0.6 -0 .4 -0 .4 0.5 -1 .9 -9 .2 2-88 1.0 0.2 0.3 1.2 -0 .2 -3 .2 3.3 3-88 0.4 -0 .4 -0 .4 0.2 -1 .1 -3 .4 -0 .3 -3 .8 4-88 2.0 1.5 1.8 2.6 2.1 1.1 4.8 5.5 15.7 1-89 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.1 0.2 2.7 2.5 5.8 -3 .3 2-89 1.7 1.3 1.4 2.0 1.5 0.8 3.0 2.9 5.2 0.3 4.0 3-89 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.4 2.0 1.8 3.2 -0 .6 0.8 -2 .4 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.3 0.7 2.2 2.0 3-2 0.3 1.5 0.3 3.0 1.8 3.1 0.8 1.9 1.2 3.0 2,9 1-90 2-90 of 3-90 D ollars 4-90 1-91 776.0 775.7 769. £ 779.8 791.3 772.4 778.7 771.2 799.9 793.2 801.0 796.2 4-89 1.5 1-90 1.6 1,2 1.4 1.4 0.9 2.3 2.1 2-90 1.9 1.6 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.4 2.7 2.6 3.6 1.7 2.7 2-4 . 4.0 4.5 6.2 3-90 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.1 1.8 1.4 2.6 2.5 3.3 1.6 2.5 2.2 3.3 3.4 3.7 1.2 4-90 2.0 1.8 1.9 2.3 2.0 1.7 2.8 2.7 3.4 2.0 2.8 2.6 3.6 3.8 4.0 3.0 4.7 1-91 1.8 1.6 1.7 2.0 1.8 1.5 2.4 2.3 3.0 1.6 2.3 2.0 2.8 2.7 2.7 1.5 1.7 -1 .3 2-91 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.1 1.9 1.6 2.5 2.4 3.0 1.8 2.4 2.1 2.8 2.8 2-8 1.9 2.1 0.8 3.0 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 Second quarter 1991 data are prelim inary 802.2 807.9 820.2 822.7 C o r p o r a (C om p o un d e d Term inal Quarter 4-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 829.6 4-87 t e A n n u a l I n i t i a l Quarter Annual Rates 1-88 2-88 3-88 -6 .3 P r o Rates f Reserve 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 of 1-91 275.2 281.8 9.9 2-87 23.0 37.6 3-87 15.5 23.8 31.4 4-87 12.2 17.4 20.0 12.1 0.1 1-88 11.8 15.8 17.3 11.2 4.7 9.5 2-88 11. 0 14.2 15.1 10.0 5.3 8.0 6.6 3-88 9.3 11.8 12.1 7.6 3.5 4.7 2.4 -1 .7 4-88 10.4 12.7 13.1 9.5 6.5 8.2 7.8 8.4 1-89 6.5 8.0 7.8 4.1 0,9 1.0 -1.0 -3 .4 2-89 5.2 6.4 6,0 2.6 -0 ,3 -0 ,4 -2 ,2 -4 .3 -5 .1 -15.5 -7 .0 3-89 3.1 4.0 3.4 0.2 -2 .6 -2.9 -7.0 -8 .3 -16.0 -12.2 -17.1 4-89 1.2 1.9 1.2 -1 .9 -4 .5 -5 .1 -9.1 -10.5 -16.8 -14.5 -18.1 1-90 1.7 2.4 1.7 -1 .0 -3 .3 -3 .7 -5 .2 -6 .8 -7 .6 -12.3 -9 .3 -10.1 -6 .4 8.4 2-90 2.5 3.1 2.6 0.2 -1 .9 -2 .1 -3 .3 -4 .4 -4 .8 -8 .4 -5 ,1 -4 .6 0.0 11.1 3-90 1.8 2.4 1.9 -0 .5 -2 .4 -2 .6 -3 .7 -4 .8 -5 .2 -8 .2 -5 .5 -5 .2 -2 .0 4.5 2.6 -7 .5 -4 .7 -0 .7 -3 .5 -11.2 -14.8 -1 .3 -3 .6 -8 .8 -9 .4 -3 .7 -6 .1 -5 .6 -0 .7 2.4 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 0.5 0.7 1.2 0.9 0.4 305.2 323.0 25.5 -1 .6 -1 .7 -3 .4 -3 .4 323.1 -3 .7 -3 .7 330.5 -4 .9 -7 .0 -4 .8 -4 .7 335.8 334.4 349.6 19.5 -4 .2 -5 .8 -5 .6 -6 .3 -6.0 -23.2 -9 .1 -8 .5 327.3 -6 .9 -6 .5 321.4 -6 ,9 -6 .4 306.7 290.9 -19.1 -4 .5 296.8 13.9 0.6 1,0 0.5 -1 .4 -3 .0 -3 .2 -4 .2 -5.0 -5 .3 -7 .5 -5 .5 -5 .4 -3 .6 -0 .7 -2 .4 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-91 Corporate Louis D ollars 4-90 1.5 1-91 S t. i t s 12.3 0.8 of of Change) B illio n s 4-88 Bank 1-87 4-90 835.8 estiaates. P repared by F e d e ra l A u g u s t 2 8 , 1991 3-86 832.3 p ro fits w ith ca p ita l consuraption and inventory valuation 306.6 300.7 288.9 286.2 287.9 adjustraents. P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. A u g u s t 28, 199 1 18 Louis G r o s s S a v in g a s a P e r c e n t o f G N P Seasonally Adjusted P e rce n t P e rce n t 1985 Total saving 1986 equals private 1987 saving (personal 1988 saving plus 1989 business saving) plus 1990 g o v e rn m e n t P re p a re d G r o s s P r i v (C o m p o u n d e d Terminal Quarter 3-86 4-86 4-86 -6 .6 1-87 8.1 25.0 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 I n i t i a l Quarter Annual Rates 3-88 1-88 2-88 a t e S A nnual Rates 4-88 1-89 a v i n by surplus Federal 1991 or R e serve deficit. B a n k of St. Louis g of Change) B illio n s 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 of D o llars 4-90 1-91 641.2 678.0 2-87 -8 .2 -9 .0 -33.7 3-87 -1 .0 0.9 -9 .4 23.9 4-87 7.7 11.5 7.4 36.7 50.7 1-88 8.6 12.0 8.9 28.5 30.9 13.7 611.8 645.5 715.2 738.5 2-88 7.7 10.3 7.5 21.3 20.5 7.8 2.1 3-88 7.8 10.0 7.7 18.7 17.4 8.1 5.4 8.7 4-88 7.4 9.3 7.3 16.2 14.7 7.2 5.1 6.6 4.5 1-89 7.7 9.4 7.6 15.3 13.9 7.7 6.2 7.6 7.1 9.7 2-89 6.2 7.6 5.8 12.2 10.6 5.1 3.4 3.8 2.2 1.0 -7 .0 3-89 6.0 7.2 S .5 11.1 9.6 4.8 3.4 3.6 2.4 1.7 -2 .1 3.0 4-89 5.9 7.0 5.5 10.6 9.2 4.9 3.7 3.9 3.0 2.6 0.3 4.2 5.5 1-90 5.8 6.8 5.4 10.0 8.7 4.8 3.8 4.0 3.2 3.0 1.4 4.3 5.0 4.4 2-90 5.8 6.8 5.5 9.7 8.4 4.9 4.0 4.2 3.6 3.5 2.3 4.7 5.3 5.2 6.0 3-90 4.3 5.1 3.8 7.4 6.2 2.8 1.8 1.8 0.9 0.4 -1.0 0.2 -0 .5 -2 .4 -5 .7 -16.0 4-90 4.2 4.9 3.7 7.1 5.9 2.8 1.9 1.9 1.2 0.7 -0 .5 0.6 0.2 -1 .1 -2 .9 -7 .0 742.4 758.0 766.4 784.4 770.3 776.0 786.4 795.0 806.7 772.2 777.8 2.9 1-91 4.5 5.2 4.0 7.2 6.1 3.3 2.4 2.5 1.9 1.6 0.6 1.7 1.5 0.8 -0 .1 -2 .1 5.7 8.5 2-91 4.3 5.0 3.9 6.8 5.8 3.1 2.4 2.4 1.9 1.6 0.7 1.7 1.6 0.9 0.2 -1 .2 4.3 5.1 1.7 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 793.9 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. A u g u s t 28, 1 9 9 1 19 797.2 Louis B u s in e s s P r o d u c t i v it y Percent C h a n g e a n d F ro m C o m p e n s a t io n Previous Y e a r Seasonally Adjusted P e rce n t P e rcent P re p a re d B u s i n e s s S e c (C om po unded Term inal Quarter I n i t i a l 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-86 1.1 1-87 0.7 0.4 2-87 1.5 1.7 3.0 3-87 1.8 2.1 2.9 2.9 4-87 2.0 2.3 2.9 2.9 2.9 4-87 1-88 2-88 t o r O Annua] u t p Rates u t p e r by H Federal o u 1-89 o f St. Louis r 1982 4-88 B a n k of Change) Quarter 3-88 Reserve 2 - 89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-9Q = 100 3-90 4-90 1-91 109.4 109.5 110.3 111.1 111.9 1-88 2.5 2.8 3.4 3 .5 3.8 4.7 2-88 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.8 -1 .1 3-88 2.0 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.3 2.0 0.7 4-88 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.4 1,1 -0 .1 0.4 -1 .7 1-89 1.4 1,4 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 -0 .2 0.1 -1.1 -0 .4 2-89. 1.3 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.0 0.7 -0.1 0.2 -0 .6 0.0 0.4 113.2 112.9 2.5 113.6 113.1 113,0 113.1 3-89 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.0 0.8 0.5 -0 .2 -0.1 -0 .7 -0 .4 -0 .4 -1 .1 4-89 0.9 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.4 0.1 -0 .5 -0 .4 -1 .0 -0 .8 -0 .9 -1 .6 112.8 112.2 -2 .1 1-90 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.0 -0 .5 -0 .5 -0 .9 -0 .8 -0 .9 -1 .3 -1 .4 -0 .7 2-90 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.4 0.2 -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .6 -0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .6 -0 .5 0.4 1.4 3-90 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.5 0.3 -0 .2 -0.1 -0 .4 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .1 0.6 1.3 1.1 4-90 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .5 -0.4 -0 .4 -0 .5 -0 .4 0.1 0.4 -0 .2 -1 .4 1-91 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .5 -0 .3 -0 .3 -o .4 -0 .3 0.1 0.3 -0 .1 -0 .7 0.0 2-91 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 -0 .2 -0 .1 -0 .4 -0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .3 -0 .2 0.1 0.3 0.0 -0 .4 0.2 0.4 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 112.0 112.4 112.7 112.3 112.3 112.4 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. L o u i s S e p t e m b e r 5, 1991 20 N e t F e (C o m p o u n d e d Terminal Quarter d e r a Annual I n i t i a l 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 l D Rates e b t of Change) B illio n s o Dollar: Quarter 3-8S 4-88 1-89 3-89 2-89 4-89 2-90 1-90 3-90 4-9Q 1,751-2 3-86 15.3 <+-86 13.8 12.3 1-87 11.5 9.7 7.1 2-87 11.2 9.8 8.6 10.2 3-87 9.9 8.6 7.5 7.6 5.2 1,802.7 1,833.8 1,878.7 1,902.6 1,944.4 <+- 87 9.8 8.7 7.9 8.1 7.1 9.1 1-88 9.7 8.8 8.2 8.4 7.9 9.3 9.4 1,988.7 2,021.5 2-88 9.4 8.5 7.9 8.1 7.6 8.4 8.1 6.8 3-88 9.2 8.5 8.0 8.1 7.7 8.4 8.1 7.5 8.3 4-88 8.8 8.1 7.6 7.7 7.3 7.7 7.3 6.6 6.6 4.9 1-89 8.6 8.0 7.5 7.6 7.2 7.6 7.3 6.7 6.7 6.0 7.1 2-89 8.4 7.8 7.3 7.3 7.0 7.3 7.0 6.5 6.4 5.8 6.2 2,062.0 2,086.9 2,122.8 2,150.7 5.4 2,191.7 3-89 8.3 7.8 7.4 7.4 7.1 7.3 7.1 6.7 6.7 6.3 6.8 6.6 7.8 4-89 8.3 7.8 7.4 7.5 7.2 7.4 7.2 6.9 7.0 6.7 7.2 7.2 8.1 8.4 1-90 8.8 8.3 8.0 8.1 7.9 8.2 8.1 7.9 8.1 8.0 8.7 9.1 10.3 11.6 2,236.3 2,315.4 14.9 2,378.3 2-90 8.9 8.5 8.2 8.3 8.2 8.5 8.4 8.3 8.5 8.5 9.1 9.5 10.6 11.5 13.1 11.3 3-90 9.1 8.8 8.5 8.6 8.5 8.8 8.8 8.7 8.9 9.0 9.6 10,0 11.0 11.8 12.9 11.9 12.6 4-90 9.3 9.0 8.8 8.9 8.8 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.4 10.0 10.5 11.3 12.0 13.0 12.3 12.8 13.1 1-91 9.3 9.0 8.8 8.9 8.9 9.1 9.1 9.1 9.3 9.4 9.9 10.3 11.0 11.6 12.2 11.6 11.6 11.2 9.3 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 Prepared Ju ly 30, F E D E R A L G O V E R N M E N T (b illio n s S e a s o n a l l y Federal Gross federal 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 0 1991 by debt debt A d j u s t e d trusts Bank 2,582.9 of St. Louis D E B T E n d of M o n t h T o t a l s Federal by Net federal Reserve 2,526.4 d o lla rs ) held agencies and of by Federal 1991 2,449.8 debt debt held Federal Reserve Federal by Banks debt held private investors Federal by debt foreign investors M a r c h 2 2 4 8 .9 4 1 4 .5 1 8 3 3 .8 1 9 9 .4 1 6 2 8 .4 J u n e 2 3 1 1 ,6 4 3 2 .9 1 8 7 8 .7 2 1 1 .7 1 6 68 .1 2 7 1 .7 2 7 8 .0 S e p t e m b e r 2 3 6 2 .1 4 5 9 .0 1 9 0 2 .6 2 1 4 .5 1 6 9 0 .8 2 8 2 .3 D e c e m b e r 2 4 1 7 .2 4 7 3 .4 1 9 4 4 .4 2 1 7 .4 1 7 2 6 .2 3 0 1 .5 M a r c h 2 4 8 7 .6 4 9 9 .3 1 9 9 8 .7 2 2 1 .3 1 7 6 3 .7 3 3 0 .5 J u n e 2 5 5 0 .3 5 2 7 .9 2 0 2 1 .5 2 2 6 .2 1 7 9 7 .5 3 4 2 .0 S e p t e m b e r 2 6 1 5 .3 5 52.1 2 0 6 2 .0 2 3 2 .5 1 8 3 2 .2 3 5 0 .5 D e c e m b e r 2 6 7 1 .0 5 85.1 2 0 8 6 .9 2 3 2 .4 1 8 5 4 .8 3 6 3 .3 M a r c h 2 7 4 0 .9 6 1 8 .0 2 1 2 2 .8 2 3 2 .8 1 8 8 6 .4 3 7 3 ,6 J u n e 2 8 0 2 .7 6 5 0 .0 2 1 5 0 .7 2 3 0 .2 1 9 2 0 .6 3 6 6 .2 S e p t e m b e r 2 8 7 1 .8 6 78.1 2 1 9 1 .7 2 2 4 .2 1 9 70 .1 4 0 0 .9 D e c e m b e r 2 9 3 8 .3 7 0 3 .6 2 2 3 6 .3 2 2 2 .4 2 0 1 1 .8 3 9 2 .9 3 8 2 .8 M a r c h 3 0 4 9 .0 7 3 5 .2 2 3 1 5 .4 2 2 3 .8 2 0 9 4 .2 J u n e 3 1 4 6 .9 765.1 2 3 7 8 .3 2 2 9 .6 2 1 5 4 .7 3 9 0 .5 S e p t e m b e r 3 2 4 9 .5 7 9 7 .4 2 4 4 9 .8 2 3 6 .3 2 2 2 0 .6 4 1 1 .4 D e c e m b e r 3 3 5 1 .4 8 2 3 .4 2 5 2 6 .4 2 5 2 .7 2 2 8 3 .7 4 2 4 .3 M a r c h 3 4 6 1 .7 8 8 1 .8 2 5 8 2 .9 2 5 2 .3 2 3 3 7 .2 4 2 8 .3 C o l u m n s m a y n o t a d d b e c a u s e e a c h c o m p o n e n t is s e a s o n a l l y a d j u s t e d s e p a r a t e l y . G r o s s f e d e r a l d e b t e q u a l s d e b t h e l d b y a g e n c i e s a n d t r u s t s p l u s n e t f e d e r a l d e b t . Ne t federal d eb t e q ua l s d eb t held b y F e d er al R e s e r v e b a n k s p lu s d eb t held by private i nvestors ( wh i ch i n c lu d es d e b t held b y f o re i gn i nvestors). S o u r c e s : d a t a m a y b e f o u n d in t h e Data have been Treasury Bulletin and a l s o in t h e F e d e r a l Reserve Bulletin; r e v i s e d to r efl ect c h a n g e d s e a s o n a l a d j u s t m e n t f a c t or s . 21 s e a s on a l l y ad ju ste d s er ies p r e p a r e d b y this B a n k . Original F E D E R A L (b illio n s o f d o lla rs , G O V E R N M E N T q u a r t e r l y to ta ls Quarters 1 9 8 4 incom e at a n n u a l $ 7 1 1 .1 7 4 4 .7 7 2 1 .9 7 4 7 .9 3 7 2 8 .3 4 7 4 2 .7 Surplus accounts $ adjusted incom e budget 8 6 5 .6 $ or deficit(Cyclically National adjusted accoui budget 8 5 9 .8 budget $ - 1 5 4 . 6 - 115.1 8 8 5 .3 8 8 0 .4 - 1 6 3 .4 - 1 3 2 . 5 7 5 4 .4 90 1.1 8 9 5 .6 - 1 7 2 . 8 - 1 4 1 . 2 7 7 1 .0 9 3 0 .2 9 2 5 .3 - 1 8 7 .5 - 1 5 4 . 3 1 7 9 6 .5 8 1 9 .3 9 5 8 .2 9 5 3 .0 - 1 6 1 . 6 - 1 3 3 . 7 2 7 5 8 .7 7 8 0 .7 9 6 9 .9 9 6 4 .4 - 2 1 1 . 1 - 1 8 3 . 7 3 7 9 4.1 8 1 1 .8 9 9 6 .7 9 9 1 .3 - 2 0 2 . 7 - 1 7 9 . 5 4 8 0 5 .3 8 2 2 .0 1 0 1 7 .5 1 0 1 2 .6 - 2 1 2 . 2 - 1 9 0 . 6 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 0 1 991 1 8 1 0 .9 8 1 6 .4 1 0 0 6 .6 1 0 0 1 .4 - 1 9 5 .6 - 1 8 5 . 0 2 8 1 5 .9 8 3 2 .2 1 0 5 1 .9 1 0 4 5 .2 - 2 3 6 . 0 - 2 1 3 . 0 3 8 3 0 .9 852.1 1 0 3 7 .7 1 0 3 2 .4 - 2 0 6 . 8 - 1 8 0 . 3 4 8 5 3 .8 8 7 5 .5 1 0 4 2 .8 1 0 3 8 .7 - 1 8 9 . 0 - 1 6 3 . 2 1 8 6 2 .0 875.1 1 0 6 0 .0 1 0 5 7 .4 - 1 9 8 .0 - 1 8 2 . 3 2 9 2 9 .8 938.1 1 0 61.1 1 0 6 0 .4 - 1 3 1 .3 - 1 2 2 . 3 3 9 2 3 .4 9 2 7 .2 1 0 6 4 .9 1 0 6 5 .6 - 1 4 1 .6 - 1 3 8 . 4 4 9 4 0 .0 9 3 0 ,0 1 1 0 1 ,7 1 1 0 3 .0 - 1 6 1 .7 - 1 7 3 . 0 1 9 4 3 .0 9 2 4 .9 1 0 9 6 .7 1 0 9 8 .0 - 1 5 3 . 7 - 2 9 7 2 .5 9 4 9 .5 1 1 0 9 .4 1 1 1 1 .4 - 1 3 6 . 9 - 1 6 1 . 9 173.1 3 9 7 6 .7 9 5 3 .0 1 0 9 6 .8 1 0 9 8 .2 - 120.1 - 1 4 5 . 2 4 9 9 7 .5 9 7 1 .4 1 1 5 3 .8 1 1 56.1 - 1 5 6 . 3 - 1 8 4 . 7 1 1 0 4 5 .4 1 0 1 4 .3 1 1 7 8 .0 1 1 8 1 .0 - 1 3 2 . 6 - 1 6 6 . 7 2 1 0 6 2 .2 1 0 3 2 .2 1 1 8 4 .9 1 1 8 7 .3 - 1 2 2 .7 - 155.1 3 1 0 4 8 .1 1 0 2 0 .2 1 1 7 9 .8 1 1 8 2 .0 - 1 3 1 . 7 - 1 6 1 .8 4 1 0 5 5 .7 1 0 3 5 .4 1 2 0 5 .8 1 2 0 8 .2 - - 1 7 2 .8 150.1 1 1 0 8 0 .6 1 0 6 1 .7 1 2 4 8 .8 1 2 5 2 .2 - 1 6 8 . 3 - 1 9 0 . 5 2 1 1 0 5 .8 1 0 9 3 .4 1 2 7 1 .7 1 2 7 5 .4 - 1 6 6 . 0 - 1 8 2 . 0 3 1 1 2 5 .9 1 1 1 6 .0 1 2 7 1 .6 1 2 7 3 .6 - 1 4 5 .7 - 1 5 7 . 6 4 1 1 2 6 .5 1132.1 1 3 1 0 .8 1 3 1 1 .2 - 1 8 4 .3 - 1 7 9 . 1 1 1 1 3 4 ,5 1 1 6 3 .4 1 2 6 1 .4 1 2 5 3 .3 - 1 2 6 . 9 2 1 1 3 9 .0 N .A . 1 3 2 4 .0 N .A . - 1 8 5 . 0 - not - 8 9 .9 N .A . a va ila b le Fiscal years A ctu al 1983 Total ra te s ) Cyclically budget budget 2 1 9 8 5 N .A . adjusted accounts $ National Cyclically budget 1 a d j u s t e d Expenditures Receipts National incom e B U D G E T S s e a s o n a l l y 1984 1985 1986 Estim ates 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 budget Receipts $ 600.6 Outlays Surplus or defi ci t ( - ) $ 666.5 $ 734.1 $ 769.1 $ 851.8 946.3 990.3 1003.8 $ - 2 0 7 . 8 $ - 1 8 5 . 3 $ - 2 1 2 . 3 $ - 2 2 1 . 2 $ - 1 4 9 . 7 C a le n d a r National income 854.1 808.3 $ 909.0 $ 990.7 $ 1031.3 $ 1068.7 $ 1145.5 1064.1 1144.1 1251.8 1350.9 1493.8 $ - 1 5 5 . 1 $ - 1 5 3 . 4 $ - 2 2 0 . 5 $ - 2 8 2 . 2 $ - 3 4 8 . 3 $ $ years accounts budget Receipts 659.9 $ Surplus Cyclically or deficit( — ) adjusted Fiscal years refer to Estim ates from adjusted Office Office of 913.8 $ $ 972.4 1052.9 1109.7 1034.8 1071.9 1114.2 1187.2 1275.7 $■- 176.0 $ -1 6 9 .6 $ -1 9 6 .9 $ -2 0 6 . 9 $ -1 5 8 .2 $ -1 4 1 .7 $ - 1 3 4 . 3 $ - 1 6 6 . 0 $ 725.8 $ $ $ $ the outlays Cyclically Source: 827.9 $ 985.6 754.5 823.5 or deficit( - ) budget 788.7 $ 895.6 Expenditures Total 726.0 budget Receipts Surplus $ 835.9 Expenditures of - 9 7 . 7 budget include year federal $ -1 3 5 .8 which and $ -1 7 1 .9 from that are B u d g e t ’s data are based M a n a g e m e n t and Budget 980.3 runs entities M a n a g e m e n t budget 808.5 $ 890.3 on a and 6 $ - 1 8 5 . 4 October 917.6 $ 1029.4 $ 1071.6 $ -1 5 4 .0 1 through 949.7 1115.9 $ - 1 6 6 . 2 Sep tem b e r 1025.5 $ -1 6 4 .1 1100.8 1278.1 1189.6 $ - 1 7 7 . 3 30. off-budget. M id-Session percent U.S. 844.1 $ rate Review of of the F Y 1991 Budget (July 15, 1991). unem ploym ent. Departm ent of C o m m e r c e . Prepared 22 by Federal Reserve B a nk of St. Louis G o v e r n m e n t D e f i c i t ( - ) / S u r p l u s ( + ) Seasonally Adjusted Billions of D ollars Billions of Dollars - 6 0 - 6 0 T o t e ul / \ - 1 1 0 - 1 1 0 / ' / \ / - 1 6 0 ' / V \ ^ v \ V F e d e ra l A V / f \ \ n \ - 1 6 0 V \ \ 7 ' f/ / V \ - 2 1 0 ' ^ 1 1 \ A V \ \ - 2 1 0 / W * “ 1- 2 6 0 1 1 1 1985 National 1 1 1 1986 in c o m e a c c o u n ts 1 1 1 1 1987 1 ■ I e d e r a l D e f e (C o m p o un d e d Terminal Quarter n s e 2-87 3-87 4-86 -7 .9 1-87 0.9 10.5 2-87 3.5 9.6 3-87 5.0 9.6 9.2 9.6 4-87 2.6 5.5 3.8 1.4 -6 .1 1-88 2.3 4.5 3.1 1.2 -2 .7 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 E x p A n n u a l Rates I n i t i a l 1-87 1 1 "I 1■ - 2 6 0 1991 basis F 4-86 1 1990 P re pared 3-86 1 • 1989 1988 e n d i t u by r e Federal R e serve B a n k of 1-89 Louis s of Change) Quarter 4-88 St. 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 B illio n s of D o llars Annual Rates 1-91 280.7 287.8 8.8 293.9 300.7 296.0 0.8 296.6 2-88 2.1 3.9 2.6 1.1 -1 .6 0.7 0.7 3-88 1.6 3.0 1.8 0.4 -1 .7 -0 .2 -0 .7 -2 .1 4-88 2.0 3.3 2.3 1.3 -0 .3 1.2 1.4 1.7 5.7 1-89 1.6 2.7 1.8 0.8 -0 .6 0.6 0.5 0.5 1.8 -1 .9 2-89 1.8 2.8 2.0 1.1 0.0 1.0 1.1 1.2 2.3 0.7 3.3 297.1 295.5 299.6 298.2 300.6 3-89 2.3 3.2 2.5 1.9 0.9 2.0 2.2 2.5 3.7 3.0 5.5 7.8 4-89 1.3 2.2 1.4 0.7 -0 .2 0.5 0.5 0.5 1.0 -0.1 0.4 -0 .9 -9.0 1-90 2.0 2.8 2.2 1.6 0.9 1.7 1.8 1.9 2.6 2.0 3.0 2.9 0.6 306.3 299.2 307.2 11.1 2-90 2.1 2.8 2.3 1.7 1.1 1.8 1.9 2.1 2.7 2.2 3.0 3.0 1.4 7.1 3.2 3-90 2.2 2.9 2.4 1.9 1.3 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.9 2.5 3.2 3.2 2.1 6.0 3.5 3.9 4-90 3.0 3.7 3.3 2.9 2.4 3.2 3.4 3.7 4.3 4.2 5.0 5.3 4.9 8.6 7.8 10.2 16.8 1-91 3.3 4.0 3.6 3.2 2.8 3.5 3.7 4.0 4.7 4.6 5.4 5.7 5.3 8.5 7.8 9.4 12.3 7.9 2-91 2.8 3.5 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.9 3.1 3.3 3.8 3.6 4.2 4.3 3, . 8 6.1 5.1 5.7 6.2 1.3 -4 .9 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 309.6 312.6 325.0 331.2 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. A u g u s t 28, 1 9 9 1 23 327.1 Louis F e d e r a l N o n d e (C om p o un d e d Term inal Quarter f e I n i t i a l 3-86 4-86 5.9 1-87 5.7 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 n s e A n n u a l E Rates x p e n d i t u r e s of Change) Quarter 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 B illio n s of D o llars Annual Rates 1-91 762.1 5.4 772.2 2-87 2.8 1.3 -2 .6 3-87 1.7 0.4 -2 .1 -1 .6 767.2 4-87 5.8 5.7 5.8 10.3 23.6 1-88 4.3 4.0 3.6 5.8 9.6 -2 .8 2-88 4.6 4.3 4.1 5.9 8.5 1.6 6.2 3-88 3.3 2.9 2.5 3.5 4.9 -0 .7 0.3 -5 .3 4-88 5.9 5.9 5.9 7.4 9.3 6.0 9.1 10.6 764.2 805.7 800.1 812.3 801.3 854.2 29.1 879.8 1-89 6.5 6.6 6.7 8.1 9.8 7.3 10.0 11.2 20.6 12.5 2-89 6.1 6.1 6.2 7.4 8.7 6.4 8.3 8.9 14.0 7.2 2.1 884.3 3-89 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.9 6.9 4.7 6.0 6.0 9.0 3.0 -1 .4 -4 .8 4-89 6.0 6.0 6.0 6.9 7.9 6.1 7,4 7.6 10.4 6.1 4.1 5.1 16.0 873.5 1-90 6.7 6.7 6.8 7.7 8.7 7.2 8.5 8.8 11.4 8.1 7.0 8.7 16.2 16.4 906.6 941.6 2-90 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.8 8.7 7.4 8.5 8.8 11.0 8.3 7.4 8.8 13.7 12.6 9.0 3-90 6.3 6.3 6.4 7.1 7.9 6.5 7.5 7.7 9.4 6.8 5.9 6.7 9.8 7.8 3.7 -1 .3 4-90 6.6 6.6 6.7 7.4 8.1 7.0 7.9 8.1 9.6 7.4 6.7 7.5 10.2 8.7 6.3 5.0 11.7 1-91 4.9 4.8 4.8 5.3 5.8 4.5 5.2 5.1 6.1 3.9 2.8 2.9 4.3 2.1 -1 .2 -4 .4 -5 .9 -20.7 2-91 6.1 6.1 6.2 6.8 7.3 6.3 7.0 7.1 8.3 6.4 5.7 6.2 7.8 6.5 4.7 3.6 5.3 2.3 31.9 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 1-91 962.1 959.0 985.8 930.2 996.9 P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f St. L o u i s A u g u s t 28, 199 1 24
@FedFRASER