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N

a t io n a l

E c o n o m

ic

T r e n d s

S e p te m b e r 1990
T h e

B a la n c e d

1 9 8 5 .
in

a

It

b a la n c e d

T r e n d s

in

R u d m a n .
fe d e r a l

O n
th e

a

th e

n a tio n a l

o f

A s

a

D u r in g
p e rc e n t
P .

o f

b e e n

n o t
th e

in c o m e

G

1 9 9 1 .

o f

1 9 8 0

in

o n

1 9 8 9

e r a d ic a te d ,

o b je c tiv e s

o f

ro s e

fo llo w in g

o th e r

a n d

th e
to

h a n d ,

a t

r e c e ip ts

e n a c tm e n t

fr o m

4 .9

p e r c e n t

th e re

h a s

b e e n

a c c o u n ts

c a n

a

g o v e r n m e n t

p o s tp o n in g

b e

m o r e

ta b le

u s e d

to

th e

a s s e s s

m e a n in g fu l

s h o w s

G r a m m - R u d m a n ’ s
a

4 .4

fe ll

o f

p e r c e n t

in

1 9 8 7 ,

G r a m m - R u d m a n )

th e

to

w a s

s e t

b u d g e t

th e

e n a c te d

ta rg e ts

b a la n c e

s u c c e s s

a s s e s s m e n t

o f

to

o r

th e

in

th a t

D e c e m b e r

w o u ld

fis c a l

fa ilu r e

r e s u lt

1 9 9 3 .

o f

e c o n o m ic

G ra m m -

im p a c t

o f

b u d g e t.

ro s e

h a v e

c a lle d

r e q u ir e d

in

p r o v id e

a c c o m p a n y in g

2 2 .8

(u s u a lly
a n d

a m e n d e d

in c o m e

b e fo r e

e x p e n d itu r e s

e x p e n d itu r e s
th e

th e

1 9 8 5 ,

A c t

b u d g e t

m e a s u re s

o ffic ia l

b a s is ,
to

w a s

n a tio n a l

th e

C o n t r o l

o ffic ia l

a c t

a c c o u n ts

th a n

a c c o u n ts

y e a r s

D e f ic it

T h e

th e

in c o m e

e x p e n d itu r e s

fo u r

P

s e c to r

fe d e r a l

d r o p p in g

N

e r g e n c y

g o v e r n m e n t’s

fis c a l

F r o m

R e a l

R e c e ip t s ,

h a s

E m

a c tiv it y

p e r io d .

th e

b y

n a tio n a l

r e s u lt,

r a te ,

a n d

fe d e r a l

fe d e r a l

G N P .

^ ¿ r c e n t

w it h

th e

g o v e r n m e n t

p e r c e n t

' G N

o n

b u d g e t

T h e s e

1 9 8 0 - 9 0

ra te .

B u d g e t

fo c u s e d

p e r c e n t

a s

G N

a c c e le r a te d
1 9 8 5 ,

a n n u a l

p e r c e n t

o f

r a te ,

P

in

1 9 8 9 .

r e la tiv e

b e fo r e

to

r is in g

p ro g re s s

b u d g e t

m e a s u re s

th e

w h ile

d e fic it

r e a l

r e a l

S in c e

G N

a g a in

P

fe d e r a l
th e n ,

r e c e ip t s

a

p e rc e n t

fr o m
ro s e

s in c e

e x p e n d itu r e

e x p e n d itu r e s
1 9 8 5 .

in

th e

fir s t

r e d u c in g

in

as

ro s e

o f G N

2 .2

a t

P

d u r in g

p e rc e n t

o n ly

a

1 .9

to

4 .9

p e rc e n t

G N P .

G r a m m - R u d m a n ,

o f

c o n s id e r a b le

a

th e s e

e n a c tm e n t,

th e

fe d e r a l

A s

h a lf

o f

a

g r o w th

h a v e

r e s u lt,
1 9 9 0 .

d e fic it

s lo w e d

r is e n
th e

to

2 3 .2

a

1 .4

p e rc e n t

d e fic it

T h u s ,

r e la tiv e

to

to

f e ll

to

w h ile

th e

d e fic it

G N P ,

2 .6

c o n s is t e n t

G r a m m - R u d m a n .

F e d e r a l

B u d g e t

( p e r c e n t

C a le n d a r

G

T r e n d s
N

P )

E x p e n d itu r e s

R e c e ip t s

198 0

2 2 .5 %

2 0 .3 %

2

1985

2 4 .5

1 9 .6

4 .9

2 .8
2

20.2
20.2

2
.6

1989
1 990

(1 s t

h a lf)

y e a r

o f

2 3 .2

D e fic it

.2 %

3 .0

— K e ith

T H
F E D

E

E R A L
R E S E R V E
B A N K

o f

S T . L O

U IS

v ie w s e x p re s s e d do n o t n e ce ssarily re fle c t o ffic ia l p o sitio n s o f th e F ederal R eserve System .




M .

C a r ls o n

T O T A L CIVILIAN E M P L O Y M E N T
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
THOUSANDS
O F PERSONS

INITIAL M O NTH
1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8- 8 9

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

0
O
s
1
<0

TERMINAL
MONTH
12-88

5-90

6-90
116.640

1-89

5.3

2-89

3.2

1.2

3-89

3.2

2.1

116.757
3.0

117.047
117*084

4-89

2.5

1.5

1.7

0.4

5-89

2.1

1.3

1.3

0.4

0.5

117.132
117,542

6-89

2.4

1.9

2.0

1.7

2.4

4.3

7-89

1.9

1.4

1.4

1.0

1.2

1.6

-1.1

117.436
117.550

8-89

1.8

1.3

1.4

1.0

1.2

1.4

0.0

1.2

9-89

1.5

1.0

1.0

0.6

0.7

0.7

-0.4

-0.1

-1. 3

117,419
117,585

10-89

1.5

1.1

1.1

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.1

0.5

0.2

1.7

11-89

1.6

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.1

1.2

0.6

1.0

1.0

2.1

2.6

12-89

1.5

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.6

0.9

0.9

1.6

1.6

0.5

1-90

1.4

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.5

0.7

0.6

1.1

0.9

0.1

- 0. 3

117.836
117.888
117.863
118.035

2-90

1.4

1.1

1.1

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.6

0.9

0.8

1.3

1.2

0.7

0.8

1.8

3-90

1.5

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.2

1.2

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.5

2.4

3.1

118.334
118.116

4-90

1.3

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.9

0.9

0.6

0.8

0.7

1.0

0.9

0.6

0.6

0.9

0.4

-2. 2

5-90

1.3

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.2

1.1

0.9

0.9

1.2

1.1

0.1

6-90

1.3

1.1

1.0

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.7

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.9

1.1

0.9

0.2

1.4

0.4

7-90

1.0

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.4

0.1

0.1

0.2

-0. 2

-1. 0

-0. 6

-2. 0

-4.3

12-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2 -90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

118.350

2.4

118.389
117.953

I NITIAL M O N T H

P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BAN K O F ST. L O UIS
A U G U S T 3. 1990

PAYROLL E M P L O Y M E N T
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
MONTH
12-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

1-89

3.5
3.0

2.5

2.8

2.5

2.2

2.7

2.4

2.2

2.4

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.1

1.6

6-90

1.8

8-89

5-90

3.3

7-89

4-90

2.3

6-89

3-90

2.4

5-89

2 -90

2.0

4-89

T H O U SANDS
1-90

3.0

3-89

INITIAL M O N T H
O F P E RSONS
9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

8-89

3.9

2-89

7-89

107.442
107.711
107,888
108,101
108,310
108,607
108,767
1.3

108,887

9-89

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.2

1.8

1.8

2.3

10-89

2.3

2.2

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.6

1.5

1.6

0.8

11-89

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.1

1.9

1.9

2.1

2.0

3.1

12-89

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.7

2.2

1.3

1-90

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.8

2.7

4.0

2-90

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.7

3.1

3.2

4.1

4.1

109,096
109,171
109,452
109,570
109,931
110,304

3-90

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.8

2.7

3.2

2.7

1.3

4-90

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.1

2.3

1.7

0.5

-0. 3

5-90

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2 .5

2.4

2.6

2.3

1.7

1.9

4.1

6-90

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.1

2 .2

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.3

2.5

2.2

1.7

1.8

2.9

1.7

7-90

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.4

0.9

0.8

1.1

-0.3

-2 . 3

12-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-9 0

5-90

6-90

110,427
110,401
110,770
110.925P
110.706P

INITIAL M O N T H
P- P R E L I MINARY




P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B ANK O F ST. LOU I S
A U G U S T 3, 1990

2

EMPLOYMENT
RATIO

RATIO

SCALE

MILLIONS

OF

1982

PERSONS

1983

MILLIONS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988
SO U R C E t

B E G IN N IN G JA N U A R Y 1 0 8 0 ,
M EA S U R E S OF IM M IG R A T IO N
PERC EN T A G ES
LA T EST

ARE

1989

SCALE

PERSONS

1990

U .S .D E P A R T M E N T

OF LABO R

TOTAL EMPLOYM ENT OATA IN C O R PO R A T E NEW P R O C E D U R E S FOR E S T IM A T IN G
AND E M IG R A T IO N IN C R E A S IN G TOTAL EM PLO YM EN T BY ABOUT 0 .3 '/ .

ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S

DATA P L O T T E D :

OF

JU L Y

IN D IC A T E D .

P R E L IM IN A R Y
PREPA RED

BY

FED ERAL

RESERVE

BANK OF

ST.

L O U IS

UNEMPLO YME NT RATE
PERCENT

S E A S O N A L L Y

PERCENT

A D JU S T E D

I I

1 0 .

.0

1 0 .0

9.

9.0

8 .

8 .0

7.

7.0

6 .

6 .0

5.

5.0

4 .




1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988
SO U R C E :

PERC EN T
LATEST

OF C I V I L I A N
DATA P L O T T E D :

LABO R

U .S .

1989
D EPARTM EN T

1990
OF LABO R

FO R CE

JU L Y

PREPARED BY F E D E R A L R ES ERV E BANK OF S T .

3

LOUIS

4.0

C O N S U M E R PRICE I N D E X F O R ALL U R B A N C O N S U M E R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )

TER IN L
M A
M NH
OT

INITIAL M NH
OT

12-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

1 8 -8 *1 0
92 4 0

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90
121.4

1-89

7.2

2-89

6.1

5.1

3-89

6.1

5.6

6.1

4-89

6.6

6.4

7.1

8.1

5-89

6.3

6.0

6.4

6.5

5.0

6-89

5.7

5.4

5.5

5.3

4.0

121.9
122.5
123.3
123.8
124.1

2.9

124.5

7-89

5.5

5.2

5.2

5.0

4.0

3.4

3.9

8-89

4.8

4.4

4.3

4.0

2.9

2.3

1.9

0.0

9-89

4.6

4.2

4.1

3.8

2.9

2.4

2.3

1.5

2.9

10-89

4.7

4.4

4.3

4.1

3.4

3.1

3.2

2.9

4.4

124.5
124.8
125.4

5.9

11-89

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.1

3.5

3.3

3.3

3.2

4.2

4.9

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.2

3.7

3.5

3.6

3.5

4.4

4.9

4.4

125.8

3.9

12-89

126.3

4.9

127.7

1-90

5.3

5.2

5.2

5.1

4.8

4.8

5.0

5.2

6.3

7.1

7.5

9.4

14.1

2-90

5.4

5.2

5.3

5.2

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.3

6.2

6.9

7.1

8.2

9.9

5.8

3-90

5.4

5.3

5.3

5.2

5.0

5.0

5.2

5.3

6.1

6.7

6.8

7.6

8.5

5.8

5.8

4-90

5.2

5.0

5.0

5.0

4.7

4.7

4.9

5.0

5.6

6.0

6.0

6.4

6.8

4.5

3.8

1.9

5-90

5.0

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.6

4.6

5.2

5.5

5.4

5.6

5.8

3.8

3.2

1.9

128.3
128.9
129.1
129.3

6-90

5.1

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.6

4.6

4.8

4.8

5.3

5.6

5.6

5.8

5.9

4.4

XS
o

1.9

3.5

4.3

6.7

7-90

5.1

4.9

4.9

4.9

4.6

4.6

4.8

4.8

5.3

5.5

5.5

5.7

5.8

4.4

4.2

3.8

4.4

5.7

4.7

12-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8 -89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

130.0
130.5

INITIAL M O NTH

P R E P A R E D B Y FED E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF ST. LOU I S
A UGUST 16. 1990

P R O D U C E R PRICE INDEX, FINISHED G O O D S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
INITIAL M O N T H
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-89

10.8
9.0

6.7

4-89

8.7

7.0

6.6

8.7

7.5

7.3

8.3

8 -89

1982 * 100

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

8.8

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7.7

5-89

7-89

7.8

3-89

6-89

13.9

2-89

5-89

1

1-89

0

TERMINAL
MONTH
12-88

111.2
111.9
112.4

5.5

113.1
113.9

6-89

7.4

6.2

5.7

5.8

4.9

1.1

7-89

5.7

4.4

3.7

3.2

1.8

-1.6

-4.1

114.0

8-89

4.5

3.3

2.5

1.9

0.5

-2.1

-3.6

-3. i

9-89

5.0

3.9

3.4

3.0

2.1

0.5

0.4

2.7

8 .8

10-89

5.1

4.2

3.8

3.5

2.8

1.7

1.9

3.9

7.6

6.5

11-89

4.8

3.9

3.5

3.2

2.6

1.6

1.7

3.2

5.4

3.7

1.1

12-89

5.0

4.2

3.9

3.7

3.2

2.4

2.6

4.1

5 .9

5.0

4.3

7.6

1-90

6.4

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.5

5.0

5.6

7.3

9.6

9.8

10.9

16.1

25.4

113.6
113.3
114.1
114.7
114.8
115.5

2-90

6.0

5.4

5.2

5.2

4.9

4.5

4.9

6.3

7.9

7.7

8.1

10.5

12.0

0.0

3-90

5.4

4.8

4.6

4.5

4.3

3.8

4.1

5.2

6.4

6.0

6.0

7.2

7.1

- 1. 0

-2.0

4-90

4.8

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.5

3.1

3.3

4.1

5.1

4.5

4.2

4.9

4.2

- 2. 0

- 3.0

-4. 0

5-90

4.7

4.2

3.9

3.8

3.5

3.1

3.3

4.0

4 .9

4.4

4.1

4.6

4.0

-0. 8

- 1.0

-0. 5

3.1

6-90

4.6

4.0

3.8

3.7

3.4

3.0

3.2

3.8

4.6

4.1

3.8

4.2

3.7

-0.2

- 0.3

0.3

2.6

2.1

7-90

4.3

3.7

3.5

3.4

3.1

2.7

2.8

3.4

4.1

3.6

3.3

3.5

3.0

- 0.3

- 0.4

0.0

1.4

0.5

- 1.0

12-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

1
©

117.7

5-90

6-90




117.7
117.5
117.1
117.4
117.6
117.5

INITIAL M NH
OT
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE B N O ST. LOUIS
AK F
A G S 10. 1 9
U UT
90

4




RATIO

SCALE

P R I C E S
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

RATIO

SCALE

1982-100

CONSUMER PR IC ES DATA ARE ON A 1992-84-100 BASE
CPI-U DATA BEGINNING 1983 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EQUIVALENCE MEASURE FOR HOMEOWNERSHIP COSTS.
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED; JULY

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

RATIO SCALE

P R O D U C E R

P R I C E S

RATIO SCALE

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED: JULY

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

5

P R O D U C E R PRICE INDEX, FINISHED C O N S U M E R F O O D S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
T ERMINAL
MONTH
12-88

1982 * 100

INITIAL M O N T H
1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90
117.0

1-89

16.7

2-89

15.1

9.6

5-89

11.2

8.5

7.4

4-89

6.6

5.5

0.5

5-89

6.6

4.2

2.4

0.0

6.5

6-89

4.2

1.9

0.0

-2.5

-0.5

117.9
118.6
118.0

-5.9

118.6
117.9

-6.9

7-89

5.9

1.9

0.4

-1.5

0.5

-2.5

2.1

8-89

5.9

2.2

1.0

-0.2

1.5

-0.5

5.1

4.1

9-89

5.0

1.4

0.5

-0.8

0.2

-1.5

0.7

0.0

10-89

4.4

5.1

2.5

1.6

2.9

2.2

4.7

5.5

6.2

17.5

11-89

4.9

5.8

5.2

2.7

4.0

5.6

5.8

6.8

7.6

14.0

12-89

5.5

4.5

5.8

5.4

4.6

4.4

6.4

7.5

8.1

12.4

9.9

9.5

1-90

7.1

6.5

6.0

5.9

7.5

7.4

9.6

11.0

12.4

16.9

16.7

19.9

118.1
118.5
-4.0

118.1
119.7
10.5

120.7
121.6
124.4

51.4

2-90

7.2

6.5

6.5

6.2

7.5

7.6

9.6

10.7

11.8

15.5

14.7

16.1

19.7

9.0

5-90

6.5

5.6

5.5

5.1

6.2

6.2

7.8

8.5

9.1

11.5

10.5

10.5

10.6

1.5

125.5

4-90

5.2

4.5

4.1

5.9

4.7

4.6

5.8

6.5

6.5

8.1

6.6

5.9

5.0

-2. 5

-7. 9 -10.1

5-90

5.5

4.6

4.5

4.1

4.9

4.8

5.9

6.5

6.6

8 .0

6.7

6.1

5.4

-0. 2

- 5.2

- 1.9

7.0

6-90

4.7

4.1

5.7

5.5

4.2

4.0

5.0

5.5

5.4

6.5

5.2

4.4

5.7

-1. 2

-5. 5

-2. 9

1.0

- 4.7

7-90

4.5

5.8

5.5

5.5

5.9

5.7

4.6

4.8

4.9

5.8

4.6

5.9

5.1

-1.0

-2.8

-2.1

0.6

-2.4

0.0

12-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

124.7

-5.6

125.6
124.5
125.8
125.8

INITIAL M O N T H

P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. LOU I S
A U G U S T 10» 1990

P R O D U C E R PRICE INDEX, FINISHED G O O D S , E X C L U D I N G F O O D S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
MONTH
12-88

INITIAL M O N T H
1-89

2-89

1-89

10.4
8.4

6.8

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

1982 « 100

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

4.5

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

9.2

5-89

4-89

11.7

2-89

5-89

109.2
110.0
110.4

4-89

9.1

8.5

7.9

11.4

5-89

9.6

9.1

9.0

11.4

11.5

6-89

8.5

7.9

7.5

8.6

7.2

5.5

7-89

6.5

5.4

4.6

4.7

2.5

-1.6

-6.2

111.4
112.4
112.7
112.1

8-89

4.6

5.6

2.7

2.4

0.5

-5.2

-6.2

-6.2

9-89

5.7

5.0

4.4

4.4

5.0

1.1

0.4

5.8

14.9

10-89

5.5

4.8

4.5

4.2

5.1

1.5

1.1

5.6

8.9

5.2

11-89

4.7

4.1

5.5

5.4

2.5

0.9

0.4

2.2

5.1

0.5

-2.1

12-89

4.9

4.5

5.8

5.8

2.8

1.7

1.4

5.0

5.5

2.5

2.1

6.6

1-90

6.5

5.9

5.6

5.7

5.1

4.5

4.5

6.5

9.1

7.6

9.1

15.2

24.6

2-90

5.5

5.1

4.7

4.8

4.1

5.5

5.5

4.8

6.7

5.2

5.7

8.4

9.5

-4.1

5-90

5.1

4.7

4.4

4.5

5.7

5.0

5.0

4.2

5.8

4.5

4.5

6.2

6.1

-2.1

111.5
112.8
115.1
112.9
115.5
115.6
115.2
0.0

115.2

4-90

4.7

4.2

5.9

5.8

5.2

2.5

2.5

5.5

4.7

5.4

5.4

4.5

4.0

-2.1

-1. 0

-2.1

5-90

4.5

4.0

5.7

5.6

5.1

2.4

2.5

5.2

4.5

5.1

5.1

5.9

5.4

-1.5

-0. 5

-0. 5

1.0

6-90

4.5

4.1

5.8

5.8

5.2

2.6

2.6

5.4

4.4

5.5

5.5

4.1

5.7

0.0

1.0

1.4

5.2

5.5

7-90

4.2

5.8

5.4

5.4

2.9

2.5

2.2

2.9

5.8

2.8

2.7

5.5

2.9

-0.5

0.4

0.5

1.4

1.6

-2.1

12-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-9 0

5-90

6-90




115.0
115.1
115.6
115.4

INITIAL M O N T H

P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. LOU I S
A U G U S T 10. 1990

6

I N D U S T R I A L

RATIO

P R O D U C T I O N

SCALE

RATIO

1987-100

1982

SCALE

1987-100

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED» JULY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

INDUSTRIAL P R ODUCTION
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
MONTH
12-88

IN IT IA L MONTH
1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

1987 « 100

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-89

1 1
1 1

0.0

4-89

5 4

3.4

5.7

2 0

1.7

2.6

5.4

1 9

1.6

2.2

2.6

-1.1

0 6

0.2

0.4

0.5

-2.9

-2.7

-6.4

8-89

1 1

0.8

1.1

1.1

-1.1

-0.4

-1.1

4.5

9-89

1 0

0.7

1.0

0.9

-0.9

-0.5

-0.7

2.2

0.0

10-89

0 5

0.0

0.1

0.0

-1.7

-1.5

-1.9

-0.4

-2.7

-5.4

11-89

0 7

0.4

0.6

0.6

-0.8

-0.4

-0.7

0.8

-0.4

-0.6

4.5

12-89

1 1

0.9

1.1

1.1

0.0

0.5

0.4

1.8

1.1

1.5

5.1

1-90

0 1

-0.2

-0.1

-0.2

-1.5

- l.l

-1.4

-0.6

-1.5

-1.9

-0.7

2-90

0 9

0.7

0.8

0.8

-0.1

0.2

0.1

1.1

0.6

0.7

2.2

1.5

6-90

1.1

7-89

5-90

-5.5

6-89

4-90

10.5

5-89

5-90

-1.1

5-89

2-90

5 4

2-89

1-90

107.7
107.6
1.1

107.7
108.6
108.5
108.4
107.8
108.2
108.2
107.7
108.1
5.7

108.6

-5.5 -11.5

107.5

-0.6

11.8

108.5

5-90

1 1

1.0

1.1

1.1

0.5

0.7

0.6

1.5

1.1

1.5

2.7

2.2

1.1

8.1

4.5

4-90

1 0

0.8

1.0

0.9

0.2

0.5

0.4

1.2

0.8

1.0

2.1

1.6

0.6

4.9

1.7

- l.l

5-90

1 5

1.2

1.5

1.4

0.7

1.0

1.0

1.8

1.5

1.7

2.7

2.4

1.8

5.4

5.4

2.8

6.8

6-90

1 5

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.0

1.4

1.4

2.1

1.9

2.1

5.1

2.9

2.4

5.4

5.9

5.7

6.2

5.6

7-90

1 5

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.5

1.5

1.9

1.7

1.9

2.7

2.5

2.1

4.5

5.1

2.8

4.1

2.8

0.0

12-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

108.9
108.8
109.4
109.9P
109.9P

INITIAL M O N T H
P- PREL I M I N A R Y




PR E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. LOUIS
A U G U S T 16» 1990

7

P E R S O N A L

RATIO

SCALE

MONTHLY

T R IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS

TOTALS

I N C O M E
AT

ANNUAL

RATIO

RATES

SCALE

T R IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

3.8
3.

3.4

3 .

3.0

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

2 .2

SOURCE» U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED» JULY PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

PERSONAL INCOME
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
MONTH
12-88

BILLION S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

IN IT IA L MONTH
1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90
4,262.1

1-89

18.4

2-89

15.1

11.9

5-89

14.0

11.8

11.7

4-89

11.6

9.4

8.2

4.8

5-89

9.0

6.8

5.2

2.0

4.502.2
4,542.2
4*359.5
-0.7

4,556.8

6-89

8.2

6.5

5.0

2.8

1.8

4.4

7-89

8.1

6.5

5.4

5.9

5.6

5.8

7.5

8-89

7.1

5.6

4.5

5.2

2.7

5.9

5.6

0.1

9-89

6.7

5.5

4.4

5.2

2.9

5.8

5.6

1.8

5.6

10-89

6.8

5.6

4.9

5.9

5.8

4.7

4.8

5.9

5.9

8.5

11-89

7.0

5.9

5.2

4.4

4.4

5.5

5.4

5.0

6.6

8.2

8.1

12-89

7.0

6.0

5.4

4.8

4.8

5.6

5.8

5.5

6.8

7.9

7.8

7.4

1-90

7.2

6.5

5.8

5.5

5.5

6.1

6.5

6.2

7.4

8.4

8.5

8.6

9.9

2-90

7.5

6.5

6.0

5.5

5.6

6.5

6.6

6.5

7.5

8.4

8.4

8.5

9.0

8.1

5-90

7.4

6.7

t .5

5.8

5.9

6.6

6.8

6.8

7.8

8.5

8.5

8.6

9.0

8.6

4,572.5
4,598.2
4,598.7
4,411.6
4,441.0
4,470.0
4,496.7
4,552.2
4,561.6
9.1

4,594.7

4-90

7.2

6.4

6.1

5.6

5.7

6.5

6.5

6.4

7.2

7.8

7.7

7.6

7.6

6.9

6.5

5.6

5-90

7.0

6.5

5.9

5.5

5.6

6.1

6.5

6.2

6.9

7.5

7.2

7.0

7.0

6.2

5.6

5.9

4,608.1
4.5

4,624.4

6-90

6.9

6.5

5.9

5.6

5.6

6.1

6.5

6.2

6.8

7.1

7.0

6.8

6.8

6.1

5.7

4.6

5.1

5.8

7-90

6.9

6.5

6.0

5.7

5.7

6.2

6.5

6.2

6.8

7.1

7.0

6.9

6.8

6.5

5.9

5.2

5.7

6.4

7.0

12-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

4,646.1
4,672.4P

I N I TIAL M O N T H
P- P R E L I MINARY




P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. LOU I S
A U G U S T 27, 1990

8

RETAIL SALES
RATIO

RATIO

SCALE

BILLIONS

OF

DOLLARS

SCALE

B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

I75

165
155
145
135
125
1 15
105
95
85

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

75

1990

SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt JUNE, JULY ADVANCE ESTIMATE
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

RETAIL SALES
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
T E RMINAL
MONTH
12-88

M I L LIONS OF
DOLLARS

I NITIAL M O N T H
1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

1-89

-0.9
-0. 5

-5 . 7

5.1

4.7

11.4

25.7

5-89

5. 6

5.4

10.1

15.4

7.6

6-89

4.0

5.6

6.6

8.8

2.0

4.9

4.7

7.5

9.1

4.7

5.2

5.6

5.6

7.9

9.5

6.2

5.7

10.6

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

10.5

8 -89

2-90

-5.4

7-89

1-90

0.5

4-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

-7 . 5

5-89

8-8 9

6*2

2-89

7-89

142,095
141,179
141,214
145,744
144,626
144,210
145,589
10.9

146,649

9-89

5.6

5.5

7.5

8.7

5.9

5.5

8.7

7.9

10-89

5.5

5.0

4.5

4.9

2.1

1.0

2.2

- 0.4

11-89

5.8

5.6

4.9

5.5

5.1

2.4

5.6

2.0

-0. 8

- 5.6

9.4

12-89

5.1

2.9

5.9

4.4

2.2

1.4

2.2

0.7

-1.7

- 5.8

2.5

-4.5

1-90

5.5

5.5

6.7

7.4

5.7

5.5

6.8

6.5

5.4

5.5

15.4

15.4

59.2

2 -90

5.1

5.1

6.2

6.7

5.2

4.9

6.0

5.4

4.5

4.4

9.9

10.1

18.1

0.2

5-90

4.5

4.5

5.5

5.7

4.2

5.9

4.7

4.1

5.1

2.8

6.8

6.2

9.9

-2.5

- 4.7

4 -90

5.4

5.2

4.1

4.4

2.9

2.5

5.1

2.5

1.5

0.8

5.7

2.6

4.5

- 5.2

- 7.8 - 1 0 . 8

5 -90

5.2

5.0

5.7

4.0

2.6

2.2

2.7

2.0

1.0

0.6

5.0

2.0

5.5

-4.1

-5.5

-6.0

6-90

5.7

5.6

4.5

4.6

5.5

5.0

5.6

5.0

2.2

1.9

4 .5

5.6

5.0

-0.8

-1.1

0.2

6.2

15.7

7-90

5.6

5.4

4.1

4.4

5.2

2.9

5.4

2.8

2.1

1.9

5.9

5.5

4.4

-0. 5

-0. 6

0.4

4.5

7.2

1.1

12-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

5-89

6-89

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

4.9

147,255
145,244

-5. 6 -15.1

146,540
145,804
149,877
149,904
149,502
147,886
147,781

-0.8

149.574P
149.506E

INITIAL M O N T H
P- P R E L IMINARY
E- E S T I MATED




PR E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O UIS
AU G U S T 14, 1990

9

H O U R L Y COMPENSATION, BUSINESS SECTOR*
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) Rates of C h a n g e )
T ERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL Q U A R T E R
5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

1982*100
2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90
115.5

4-85

6.1

1-86

5.7

5.5

2-86

5.5

4.9

4.5

5-86

5.1

4.8

4.5

116.8
*18.1
119.4

4.5

120.9

4-86

5.1

4.9

4.7

4.8

5.1

1-87

4.7

4.4

4.2

4.1

5.9

2.7

2-87

4.5

4.0

5.7

5.5

5.1

2.2

121.7
122.2

1.7

125.5

5-87

4.5

4.0

5.8

5.6

5.4

2.9

5.0

4.5

4-87

4.6

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.1

5.9

4.5

5.6

7.0

1-88

4.5

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.5

5.2

5.6

4.2

2-88

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.2

4.5

5.2

5.5

4.8

125.6
126.9
128.6

5.5

5-88

4.7

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.7

5.5

5.5

5.0

5.4

5.4

4-88

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.5

5.0

5.1

4.7

4.9

4.6

5.7

150.5
151.5

1-89

4.4

4.5

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.2

4.6

4.6

4.2

4.2

5.7

2.9

2.1

2-89

4.5

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.0

5.9

4.0

4.5

4.5

5.9

5.8

5.4

2.8

2.5

2.4

5-89

4.1

4.0

5.9

5.8

5.8

5.6

5.7

4.0

5.9

5.5

5.4

5.0

2.4

1.9

1.8

4-89

4.0

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.8

5.8

5.4

5.5

2.9

2.4

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.7

1-90

4.0

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.7

5.6

5.6

5.8

5.8

5.4

5.5

5.0

2.6

2.4

2.5

2.5

5.2

5.6

2-90

4.1

4.0

5.9

5.9

5.8

5.7

5.8

4.0

4.0

5.7

5.6

5.4

5.1

5.0

5.2

5.4

4.1

4.8

6.0

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

152.2
155.0
155.4

1.2

154.5
155.5
157.5P

INITIAL QUAR T E R
•»DATA R E BASED A N D R E VISED H I S T O RICALLY
P- PRELIMINARY
P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O UIS
A U G U S T 6» 1990

O U T P U T PER H O U R O F ALL PERSONS, BUSINESS SECTOR*
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL Q U A R T E R
5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

1982*100
2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4 -89

1-90
108.1

4-85

1.5

1-86

4.5

7.2

2-86

2.5

5.0

-1.1

5-86

1.5

1.5

-1.5

-1.5

4-86

1.5

1.5

-0.6

-0.4

0.7

1.1

-0.4

-0.1

0.5

0.4

1.5

0.4

0.7

1.5

1.8

1.2

1.8

1-87

1.2

2-87

1.5

5-87

1.7

1.7

110.0

0.8

109.7
109.5
109.5

2.2

109.6
110.5

5.5
5.1

2.9

111.5
112.0

4-87

1.8

1.8

1.0

1.4

2.0

2.5

2.9

2.7

2.5

1-88

2.0

2.0

1.4

1.8

2.5

2.6

5.2

5.1

5.5

4 .0

2-88

1.7

1.7

1.1

1.4

1.8

2.0

2.5

2.1

1.8

1.4

-1.1

5-88

1.8

1.8

1.5

1.5

1.9

2.1

2.4

2.2

2.0

1.8

0.7

2.5

4-88

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.0

0.0

0.5

1-89

1.5

1.5

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.7

1.4

1.2

0.9

0.2

0.6

-0.4

0.7

1.1

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.0

0.8

0.1

0.4

-0.2

0.4

0.0

115.1
112.8
115.5
-1.4

115.1
115.5

2-89

1.4

1.4

0.9

5-89

1.2

1.1

0.7

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.2

0.9

0.7

0.4

-0. 2

0.0

-0.6

-0.4

- 0.9

- 1.8

4-89

1.0

1.0

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.6

0.4

0.1

-0. 4

-0.5

-0.8

-0.7

- 1.2

-1.8

-1.8

1-90

0.9

0.8

0.4

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.2

0.0

-0.5

-0.5

-0.9

-0.8

- 1.2

-1.6

-1.6

- 1.4

2-90

0.9

0.9

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.1

-0.5

-0.2

-0.6

-0.4

-0. 6

-0.8

- 0.5

0.2

1.8

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5—8 6

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4 -87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4— 8 8

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

■DATA R E B A S E D A N D R E V I S E D HISTOR I C A L L Y
P- P R ELIMINARY




115.5
112.8
112.5
111.9
112.4P

I N ITIAL Q U A R T E R

PR E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O UIS
A U G U S T 6 . 1990

10

PRODUCTIVITY,
RATIO

COMPENSATION,

AND

LABOR

SCALE

1982-100

1982

C O S T S
RATIO

SEASO N ALLY

1983

1984

1985

1 9 8 2 *1 0 0

A D JU S T E D

1986

*

SCALE

1987

1988

1989

1990

SOURCE: U .S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PIOTTEO: 2ND OUARTER PRELIMINARY
«R E V IS E D FROM 1987 AND REBASED HISTORICALLY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

UN I T L A B O R COSTS, BUSINESS SECTOR*
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
INITIAL QUARTER

TERMINAL

QUARTER

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

1982*100
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-8 9

3-89

4-89

1-90
106.7

4-85

5.0

1-86

1.5

-1.9

2-86

2.8

1.7

106.2
107.6

5.4

3-86

3.6

3.1

5.7

6.1

4-86

3.8

3.5

5.3

5.3

4.5

1-87

3.5

3.2

4.5

4.2

3.3

2.2

2-87

2.8

2.4

3.3

2.8

1.7

0.4

-1.4

109.2
110.4
lil.O
110.6

3-87

2.6

2.3

3.0

2.5

1.6

0.7

0.0

1.5

4-87

2.8

2.5

3.1

2.8

2.1

1.5

1.3

2.7

4.0

1-88

2.5

2.3

2.8

2.4

1.8

1.3

1.1

1.9

2.2

0.4

2-88

2.9

2.7

3.2

2.9

2.5

2.2

2.2

3.1

3.6

3.4

6.6

3-88

2.9

2.7

3.2

2.9

2.5

2.3

2.3

3.0

3.4

3.2

4.7

2.8

4-88

3.1

2.9

3.4

3.2

2.8

2.6

2.7

3.4

3.8

3.7

4.9

4.1

5.3

1-89

3.0

2.8

3.2

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.5

3.1

3.4

3.3

4.0

3.2

3.3

2-89

2.9

2.8

3.1

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.5

3.0

3.3

3.1

3.7

3.0

3.0

1.9

2.4

3-89

2.9

2.8

3.1

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.5

3.0

3.2

3.1

3.5

2.9

3.0

2.2

2. 6

2.8

4-89

3.0

2.9

3.2

3.1

2.8

2.7

2.8

3.2

3.4

3.3

3.7

3.2

3.3

2 .8

3.3

3.8

4.8

1-90

3.1

3.0

3.3

3.2

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.9

3.5

3.6

3.3

3.8

4.2

5.0

5.1

2-90

3.2

3.1

3.4

3.3

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.4

3.6

3.5

3.9

3.6

3.7

3.4

3.8

4.2

4.7

4.6

4.0

3-85

4- 8 5

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2- 8 9

3-89

4-89

1-90

«DATA R E B A S E D A N D R E V I S E D HIS T O R I C A L L Y

111.0
112.1
112.2
114.0
114.8
116.3
1.4

116.7
117.4
118.2
119.6
121.1
1 2 2 . 3P

INITIAL QUARTER
P - P R ELIMINARY




P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
A U G U S T 6 » 1990

11

G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
I NITIAL QUA R T E R

terminal

QUARTER

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-8 6

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2 -88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2 -89

4-89

3-89

1-90

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
4. 107.9

4-85

6.2

1—86

6.7

7.3

2-86

4.9

4.3

1.3

3-86

5.1

4.7

3.5

5.7

4-86

4.9

4.6

3.7

5.0

4.2

1-87

5.6

5.5

5.0

6.3

6.6

9.1

2 -87

5.9

5.8

5.5

6.6

6.9

8.3

7.5

3-87

6.1

6.0

5.8

6.8

7.0

8.0

7.4

7.4

4-87

6.3

6.4

6.2

7.1

7.4

8.2

7.8

8.0

8.7

1-88

6.5

6.5

6.4

7.2

7.4

8.1

7.8

8.0

8.3

7.8

2-88

6.7

6.7

6.6

7.3

7.6

8.1

7.9

8.0

8.3

8.1

8.3

4. 181.3
4.19 4 . 7
4. 253.3
4 . 297.3
4 . 391.6
4.47 1 . 6
4 . 551.7
4*64 7 . 6
4.73 5 . 8
4 . 831.4

3-88

6.7

6.8

6.7

7.3

7.5

8.0

7.8

7.9

8.0

7.8

7.8

7.4

4-88

6.8

6.8

6.8

7.4

7.5

8.0

7.8

7.9

8.0

7.8

7.8

7.5

7.7

4 . 917.9
5.00 9 . 8

1-89

6.8

6.9

6.9

7.4

7.5

7.9

7.8

7.8

7.9

7.7

7.7

7.5

7.6

7.5

2-89

6.8

6.8

6.8

7.2

7.4

7.7

7.6

7.6

7.6

7.4

7.3

7.1

7.0

6.7

5.8

5.10 1 . 3

3-89

6.7

6.7

6.7

7.1

7.2

7.5

7.3

7.3

7.3

7.1

7.0

6.7

6.5

6.1

5.5

5.1

4-89

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.8

6.9

7.2

7.0

6.9

6.9

6.7

6.5

6.2

6.0

5.6

4.9

4.5

3.9

1-90

6.5

6.5

6.5

6.8

6.9

7.1

7.0

6.9

6.9

6.7

6.5

6.3

6.1

5.8

5.4

5.2

5.3

6.7

2-90

6.5

6.5

6.4

6.8

6.8

7.0

6.9

6.8

6.8

6.6

6.5

6.2

6.1

5.8

5.5

5.4

5.5

6.2

5.8

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4 -89

1-90

5.1 7 4 . 0
5.2 3 8 . 6
5 . 2 89.3
5.3 7 5 . 4
5.451 . 9 P

INITIAL QUARTER
P- PR E L I M I N A R Y
P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BAN K O F ST. L O U I S
A U G U S T 24. 1990

G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T I N 1982 D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
Q U A RTER

INITIAL QUA R T E R
3-85

4-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

3.0

1-88

2-88

4-88

3-88

1-89

2-89

4-89

3-89

1-90

B I L L I O N S OF
D O L L AR S
A N N U A L RAT E S

3.662.4

1-86

4.7

6.6

2-86

2.5

2.3

-1.8

3.721.1
3.704.6

3 -86

2.1

1.8

-0.5

0.8

4-86

2.1

1.9

0.4

1.6

2.3

1-87

2.6

2.6

1.6

2.8

3.7

5.2

2-87

2.9

2.9

2.1

3.1

3.9

4.7

4.2

3.712.4
3.733.6
3.781.2
3.820.3

3-87

3.0

3.0

2.5

3.3

3.9

4.5

4.2

4.1

4 -87

3.4

3.5

3.0

3.9

4.5

5.0

4.9

5.3

6.6

1-88

3.6

3.7

3.3

4.0

4.6

5.0

5.0

5.3

5.9

2 -88

3.6

3.7

3.3

4.0

4.4

4.8

4.7

4.9

3.858.9
3.920.7
3.970.2

5.1
4.4

3.6

4 . 0 05.8

3-88

3.5

3.6

3.3

3.8

4.2

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.5

3.8

3.1

2.7

4-88

3.4

3.5

3.2

3.7

4.1

4.3

4.1

4.1

4.1

3.5

3.0

2.7

4 .032.1
4.05 9 . 3

2.7

1-89

3.5

3.5

3.2

3.7

4.0

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

3.6

3.2

3.0

3.2

3.6

2 -89

3.3

3.4

3.1

3.5

3.8

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.2

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.6

4 ,095.7
4 . 112.2

1.6

3-89

3.2

3.3

3.0

3.4

3.6

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.0

2 .7

2.5

2.4

2 .3

1.7

1.7

4 -89

3.1

3.1

2.8

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

2.7

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.8

1.2

1.0

0.3

1-90

3.0

3.0

2.8

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.6

2.2

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.3

1.2

1.0

1.7

2-90

2.9

2.9

2.7

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.0

2.9

2.4

2.1

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.4

1.2

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-8 9

3 -89

4-89

1-90

3-87

4 . 129.7
4 . 133.2
4 .1 5 0 . 6
4 » 162.8P

I NITIAL QUA R T E R
P- PRELI M I N A R Y




PR E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
AU G U S T 24. 1990

12

G R O S S

RATIO

SCALE

1982

N A T I O N A L

P R O D U C T

QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

RATIO

1988

1989

SCALE

1990

SOURCE« U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIOOS INOICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 2 » OUARTER PRELIMINARY
1




PREPARED

13

BY

FEDERAL

RESE R V E

BAN K

OF

ST.

LOUIS

GENERAL PRICE
RATIO

INDEX*

SCALE

RATIO

1982-100
135
i

1

5
«

$

§

130

SCALE

1982-100
135

1

*

^ / l31.0

130

1

%

125

125

y

120

120

115

115
* S .2 x X . 1

7

I 10

110

105

105
s -

p

^

100

100
(/

M Û IT * . '
4

m

1

1

95

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

o r* . w

*TX > '
M

m

♦

L J

1988

1989

„

1990

95

*AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt 2ND QUARTER PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

IMPLICIT PRICE D E F L A T O R F O R G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER
3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

1982 * 100
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90
112.2

4-85

3.3

1-86

2.0

2-86

2.3

1.8

2.9

3-86

3.0

2.9

4.0

5.0

4-86

2.7

2.6

3.2

3.4

1.8

112.4

0.7

113.2
114.6
115.1
116.1

1-87

2.9

2.8

3.3

3.4

2.6

3.5

2-87

2.9

2.8

3.3

3.4

2.8

3.3

3.1

3-87

3.0

2.9

3.3

3.4

3.0

3.4

3.3

3.5

4-87

2.8

2.8

3.1

3.1

2.7

3.0

2.8

2.6

1.7

1-88

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.0

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.2

2-88

3.0

2.9

3.2

3.2

3.0

3.2

3.1

3.1

2.9

3.6

4.4

3-88

3.1

3.1

3.3

3.4

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

4.0

4.6

4.7

4-88

3.2

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

4.1

4.6

4.7

4.7

1-89

3.3

3.3

3.5

3.6

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.7

4.1

4.4

4.4

4.3

3.9

2-89

3.3

3.3

3.5

3.6

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.7

4.1

4.3

4.3

4.2

3.9

3.9

3-89

3.3

3.3

3.5

3.6

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.1

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.2

4-89

3.3

3.3

3.5

3.6

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.8

1-90

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.7

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.2

4.1

3.9

3.9

3.9

4.3

4.8

2-90

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.9

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.4

4.7

4.7

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

117.0
118.0
118.5
2.7

119.3
120.6
122.0
123.4
124.6
125.8
126.8
128.0
129.5
131.OP

I N ITIAL Q U A R T E R
P - PRE L I M I N A R Y




P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
A U G U S T 24» 1990

14

P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
T E RMINAL
Q U ARTER

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

INITIAL QUARTER
3-85

4-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

6.0

2-88

1-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-8 9

1-90

2,7 0 0 . 4

1-86

5.6

5.1

2-86

5.0

4.5

4.0

2,7 3 4 . 3

3-86

6.2

6.2

6.8

9.8

4-86

6.2

6.2

6.6

7.9

6.2

2,7 6 1 . 0
2,8 2 6 . 0
2,8 6 8 . 5

1-87

6.4

6.4

6.8

7.7

6.7

7.3

2-87

6.8

7.0

7.3

8.2

7.7

8.4

9.6

3-87

7.1

7.2

7.6

8.3

8.0

8.6

9.3

2 , 9 19.5
2 , 9 87.2
8.9

3,051.6

4-87

6.7

6.8

7.0

7.5

7.1

7.3

7.4

6.2

3.7

1-88

6.9

7.0

7.3

7.8

7.5

7.7

7.8

7.2

6.4

9.2

3.079.1
3.147.7

2-88

7.0

7.1

7.3

7.7

7.4

7.7

7.7

7.3

6.7

8.3

7.4

3-88

7.1

7.2

7.4

7.8

7.5

7.7

7.8

7.5

7.1

8.3

7.8

8.2

4-88

7.2

7.3

7.5

7.8

7.6

7.8

7.9

7.6

7.3

8.2

7.9

8.2

8.1

3*204.3
3.268.2
3*332.6

1-89

7.0

7.1

7.2

7.5

7.3

7.4

7.5

7.2

6.9

7.5

7.1

7.0

6.4

7.0

7.0

7.2

7.5

7.3

7.4

7.4

7.1

6.8

7.4

7.0

6.9

6.5

5.7

3*371.7

4.8

2-89

3 * 425.9

6.6

3*484.3

3-89

7.0

7.0

7.2

7.4

7.2

7.3

7.3

7.1

6.9

7.3

7.0

6.9

6.6

6.1

6.8

7.0

4-89

6.8

6.8

7.0

7.2

7.0

7.0

7.0

6.8

6.5

6.9

6.6

6.4

6.1

5.6

5.8

5.5

4.0

1-90

6.9

6.9

7.0

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.1

6.9

6.7

7.0

6.8

6.7

6.4

6.1

6.4

6.4

6.0

8.2

2-90

6.7

6.8

6.9

7.0

6.9

6.9

6.9

6.7

6.4

6.7

6.5

6.3

6.1

5.7

5.9

5.8

5.4

6.1

4.1

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2 -89

3-89

4 -89

1-90

3*518.5
3*588.1
3 * 6 2 3 . 9P

INITIAL QUARTER
P- P R E L IMINARY
P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
AUG U S T 24, 1990

P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S I N 1982 D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TE RMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL QUARTER
3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

4-85
1-86

3.0
3.2

3.8

3.7

4.4

4.5

4-86

3.4

3.8

3.7

3.8

3.0

3.2

3.0

2.7

1.4

3.2

3.4

3.3

3.2

2.5

2.6

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

0.7

2-87

4-87

2.2

1-87

3-87

3.6

3-86

2-87

4.1

2-86

1-87

1.9

B I L L I O N S OF
DO L L A R S
AN N U A L R A T E S
2* 3 8 6 . 9
2* 4 1 0 . 9
2*4 3 2 . 4

5.4

2*464.4
2* 4 7 7 . 8
2* 4 8 2 . 2
4.5

2* 5 0 9 . 9

3-87

3.3

3.5

3.4

3.4

2.9

3.2

4.4

4.3

4-87

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.3

2.3

2.8

1.9

-0.4

1-88

3.3

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.0

3.2

3.8

3.6

3.2

6.9

2-88

3.2

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.0

3.1

3.6

3.4

3.0

4.8

2.7

3-88

3.3

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.0

3.2

3.6

3.4

3.1

4.3

3.1

3.5

4-88

3.3

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.1

3.2

3.6

3.4

3.2

4.1

3.2

3.5

1-89

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.7

2.8

3.1

2.9

2.6

3.2

2.3

2.2

1.6

-0. 3

2-89

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.7

2.9

2.7

2.4

2.9

2.1

2.0

. 1.5

0.5

1.3

2*536.6
2*534.2
2*576.8
2 * 594.1
2*6 1 6 . 4
3.5

2,638.8
2,636.7
2,645.3

3-89

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.8

3.0

2.9

2 .7

3.1

2.5

2.5

2.3

1.8

2.9

4.6

4-89

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.5

2 .3

2.6

2.0

1.9

1.6

1.2

1.7

1.9

-0.8

1-90

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.8

1.5

1.2

1.5

1.6

0.1

1.1

2 -90

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.0

2.3

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.0

1.3

1.3

0.2

0.7

0.3

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-8 9

1-90

2,675.3
2,669.9
2, 6 7 7 . 3
2 , 6 7 9 . 3P

INITIAL QUARTER
P- P R E LIMINARY




P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S
A U G U S T 24, 1990

15

G R O S S P R I V A T E D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
BI L L I O N S O F
DO L LA R S
ANNUAL RATES

I NITIAL QUAR T E R

T E RMINAL
QUARTER
5-85
4-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

18.7

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

654.1

1—86

19.1

2-86

6.5

19.4
1.0 - 14.7

5-86

5.4

-1 . 5 -10.5

-5. 7

4-86

2.8

-0. 8

-6. 8

-2. 5

0.7

1-87

5.5

2.8

-1.0

4.0

9.2

18.5

2-87

5.6

5.6

0.7

4.9

8.7

12.9

5-87

5.0

5.2

0.7

4.0

6.6

8.7

4.2

0.6

4-87

7.8

6.5

4.7

8.4

11.4

14.5

12.9

15.6

685.8
657.2
647.7
648.8
676.7
7.8

689.5
690.6
52.8

741.4

1-88

6.2

4.9

5.5

6.1

8.2

9.8

7.8

7.7

11.5

-6.4

2-88

6.5

5.4

5.9

6.5

8.4

9.8

8.1

8.2

10.8

1.2

9.5

5-88

6.9

5.9

4.6

7.0

8.7

9.9

8 .6

8.7

10.9

4.4

10.2

10.9

4-88

5.6

4.5

5.5

5.5

6.6

7.5

5.9

5.5

6.5

0.8

5.4

0.4

-9.1

1-89

6.0

5.1

4.0

5.9

7.1

7.9

6.7

6.5

7.5

5.0

5.6

4.5

1.1

12.4

2-89

5.9

5.0

4.0

5.7

6.8

7.5

6.5

6.1

6.9

5.1

5.2

4.1

1.9

8.0

5.7

5-89

5.5

4.7

5.7

5.2

6.2

6.7

5.6

5.4

6.0

2.6

4.2

5.2

1.5

5.1

1.6

-0.5

729.2
746.0
765.6
747.5
769.7
776.7
775.8

5.0

4.5

5.2

5.5

4.4

4.1

4.5

1.4

2.6

1.5

-0.5

2.0

-1.2

-5.6

-6.6

5.2

2.2

5.5

4.2

4.4

5.4

5.0

5.2

0.5

1.2

0.1

-1.6

0.0

-2.9

-5.0

-7.2

2-90

4.2

5.4

2.5

5.7

4.4

4.6

5.7

5.5

5.6

1.0

1.9

1.0

-0.4

1.2

-1.0

-2.1

-2.6

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

762.7
-7.9

4-89

747.2
M
rs
.

5.9

4.0

1

4.7

1-90

0

4-89

760 . 5P

1-90

INITIAL QUA R T E R
P- P R E L I M I N A R Y
P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E SERVE B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
A U G U S T 24, 1990

G R O S S P R I V A T E D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T I N 1982 D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUA R T E R

INITIAL QUAR T E R
5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

4-85
1-86

19.6

2-86

5.5
1.1
-0.4

1-87

2.8

1-87

2-87

?-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

- 4 . 7 - 1 4 . 5 - 1 0.5

4-86

4-86

-1 . 8 - 1 8 . 5

5-86

5-86

20.8

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
648.0
676.1

18.5

-5.1 -11 . 8
-0. 4

-4 . 6

642.5
625.1

-8.5

6.4

615.2

-6.2

0.5

20.6

644.7
659.1

2-87

5.7

1.1

-2 . 0

2.6

7.5

14.8

5-87

5.8

1.6

-1.0

2.9

6.5

11.1

6.6

4.1

4-87

6.1

4.4

2.6

6.6

10.5

14.9

15.0

14.9

26.9

1-88

5.0

5.4

1.6

4.9

7.7

10.7

8.5

8.0

10.1

-4.6

9.2

665.7
706.6
698.4

2-88

4.9

5.4

1.9

4.8

7.1

9.5

7.4

7.0

8 .0

-0.4

5.9

5-88

5.4

4.1

2.7

5.4

7.5

9.7

7.9

7.7

8.6

5.1

7.2

4-88

5.7

2.4

1.1

5.5

4.9

6.4

4.5

5.7

5.6

-1. 5

-0. 4

1-89

4.5

5.2

2.0

4.1

5.6

7.0

5.5

4.9

5.1

1.2

2.7

2.5

2-89

4.1

5.0

1.9

5.8

5.2

6.4

5.0

4.5

4.5

1.2

2.4

2.0

-0.7

6.7

1.2

5-89

4.0

2.9

1.9

5.7

4.9

6.0

4.7

4.2

4.2

1.5

2.5

1.9

-0.1

5 .0

1.5

1.8

4-89

5.5

2.5

1.5

2.9

4.0

4.8

5.5

5.0

2.8

0.2

0.9

0.4

-1.5

1.9

-1.5

-2. 8

-7.1

1-90

2.8

1.9

0.9

2.5

5.5

4.1

2.8

2.5

2.1

-0.4

0.2

- 0.4

-2.1

0.5

-2.5

-5.4

-5.9

- 4.7

2-90

2.7

1.8

0.9

2.5

5.2

5.9

2.7

2.1

2.0

- 0.2

0.5

-0.2

-1.6

0.6

- 1.6

-2. 5

-5.6

-1.9

1.0

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

705.1
725.0

10.5
-2. 5 -14.0
-1.7

696.2
717.0

12.5

719.1
722.5
709.1
700.7
702.5P

INITIAL QUARTER
P- P R E L I M I N A R Y




P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L RES E R V E BANK OF ST. L O U I S
A UGUST 24, 1990

16

G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V I C E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
TERMINAL
QUARTER

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

INITIAL QUARTER
A N N U A L RAT E S
5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

BI L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS

5 -89

4-89

1-90
856.7

4-85

8.1

1-86

2.4

-5.0

2-86

4.6

5.0

9.2

5-86

4.8

5.7

7.2

5.2

4.6

5.8

6.1

4.6

4.0

5.0

4.4

6.4

5.4

5.6

7.2

5.6

4.8

4.6

5.0

4-86
1-87

850.5
869 . 5
88 0 . 5
88 8 . 9
904.5
2.8

910.7

2-87

4.7

4.2

5-87

5.1

4.7

6.0

5.4

5.5

6.0

5.4

8.1

4.9

6.0

5.5

5.6

6.0

5.6

7.0

5.9

942.0

4.6

4.5

4.7

4.0

4.4

2.7

-0.5

940.9

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.5

4.9

5.9

2.9

4.2

4.1

4.1

5.6

5.8

2.7

1.7

6.1

5.9

6.4

6.1

6.2

8.5

9.6

20.8

5.8

5.6

6.0

5.7

5.6

7.2

7.5

11.8

5.4

6.0

5.7

9.7

4.6

4-87

5.2

1-88

4.6

4.5

5.2

2-88

4.8

4.5

5.5

5-88

4.5

4.0

4.7

4-88

5.5

5.5

6.1

5.8

5.8

1-89

5.4

5.1

5.9

5.5

5.6

928.5

955.4

6.5
2.8

955.8

- 0.7

1 ,000.0
1 ,008.5
1 ,022.7

5.8

2-89

5.4

5.2

5.8

5.6

5.6

5.8

5.6

5.6

6.9

7.0

5-89

5.2

5.0

5.6

5.5

5.5

5.4

5.2

5.5

5.2

5.1

6.1

6.0

7.8

5.7

5.9

2.0

5.6

5.5

5.2

6.1

6.0

7.4

4 .5

4.6

4.1

6.2

6.0

5.8

5.8

6.6

6.7

8.0

5.6

6.1

6.2

8.4

10.7

5.9

6.6

6.6

7.7

5.7

6.1

6.2

7.7

8.5

6.5

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4 -89

1-90

4-89

5.2

5.0

5.6

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

1-90

5.5

5.4

5.9

5.7

5.7

5.9

5.8

5.6

5.4

5.9

5.7

5.8

5.9

5.8

6.1

5-85

2-90

5.9

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

1 ,027.8
1 ,045.5
1 ►070.1
1 » 08 6 .6P

INITIAL QUARTER
P- PRELIMINARY
P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
A U G U S T 24, 1990

G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V I C E S I N 1982 D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
T ERMINAL
Q U A RTER
5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

4-85

- 1.5
2.0

2.5

2.1

2.2

5.8

4-86

2.8

5.1

5.8

5.9

2.5

2.4

4.2

2.5

2.8

1.5

1.5

2.7

1.1

0.7

-1.7

2-8 9

5-89

4-89

1-90

-0.2

2-87

1-89

5.8

1-87

4 -88

9.5

5-86

5-88

-4.5

2-86

2-87

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS

1.6

1-86

1-87

INITIAL QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88

752.7
744.1
761.2
2.1

765.2
776.0
775.7
-5.2

769.5

5-87

2.0

2.0

5.2

2.0

1.9

0.7

1.1

5.5

4-87

2.4

2.5

5.6

2.6

2.7

2.0

2.7

5.7

6.0

1-88

1.2

1.2

1.9

0.8

0.6

-0.4

-0.4

0.5

- 1.9

779.8
791.5
-9.2

772.4

2-88

1.4

1.4

2.0

1.1

1.0

0.2

0.5

1.2

- 0.2

-5.2

5.5

5-88

0.9

0.9

1.4

0.6

0.4

-0.4

-0.4

0.2

-1.1

-5.4

-0.5

- 5. 8

4-88

2.0

2.0

2.7

2.0

2.0

1.5

1.8

2.6

2.1

1.1

4.8

5.5

15.7

1-89

1.6

1.6

2.2

1.5

1.4

1.0

1.1

1.7

1.1

0.2

2.7

2.5

5.8

-5.5

2-89

1.8

1.8

2.5

1.7

1.7

1.5

1.4

2.0

1.5

0.8

5.0

2.9

5.2

0.5

4.0

5-89

1.5

1.5

2.0

1.4

1.5

0.9

1.0

1.5

1.0

0.4

2.0

1.8

5.2

-0.6

0.8

-2.4

4-89

1.6

1.6

2.0

1.5

1.5

1.1

1.2

1.7

1.5

0.7

2.2

2.0

5.2

0.5

1.5

0.5

778.7
771.2
799.9
795.2
801.0
796.2
5.0

802.2

1-90

1.7

1.7

2.1

1.6

1.6

1.2

1.4

1.8

1.4

0.9

2.5

2.1

5.1

0.8

1.9

1.2

5.0

2 .9

2-90

1.9

1.9

2.5

1.9

1.9

1.6

1.8

2.2

1.9

1.5

2.7

2.7

5.6

1.7

2.8

2.5

4 .2

4.7

6.6

5-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4 -8 8

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

807.9
8 2 0 . 9P

INITIAL QUARTER
P R E L I MINARY




P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BAN K OF ST. L O U I S
A U G U S T 24, 1990

17

D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
B I L L I O N S OF
D O LLARS
ANN U A L RAT E S

INITIAL QUARTER

terminal
q u ar ter

3-85

4-85

4-85
1-86

8.6
7.9

7.5

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-8

3-88

4-88

1-89

2 -89

3-89

4-89

1-90

8.5

2-86

1-86

8.6

2,899.5
2,959.2
6.5

3,006.5
3,024.3

3-86

6.5

5.8

4.4

2.4

4-86

6.2

5.7

4.7

3.8

5.3

1-87

6.9

6.6

6.1

6.0

7.8

10.4

2-87

5.6

5.1

4.5

4.0

4.5

4.1

-1.8

3-87

6.3

6.0

5.6

5.4

6.2

6.5

4.6

11.4

4-87

6.9

6.7

6.5

6.5

7.3

7.8

7.0

11.6

11.9

3,063.4
3,139.8
3,125.7
3,211.1
3,302.3

7.2

7.0

6.9

6.9

7.7

8.2

7.6

10.9

10.7

9.6

7.2

7.1

6.9

7.0

7.6

8.0

7.6

10.0

9.6

8.5

7.4

3-88

7.4

7.3

7.2

7.3

7.9

8.3

7.9

10.0

9.6

8.9

8.6

9.7

4 -88

7.4

7.3

7.2

7.2

7.8

8.1

7.8

9.4

9.1

8.4

8.0

8.3

6.9

1-89

7.5

7.4

7.4

7.4

8.0

8.3

8.0

9.5

9.1

8 .6

8.4

8.7

8.2

9.6

2 -89

7.3

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.6

7.8

7.5

8.8

8.4

7.8

7.5

7.5

6.8

6.7

3.9

3-89

7.1

7.0

6.9

7.0

7.4

7.6

7.3

8.3

8.0

7.4

7.1

7.0

6.3

6.2

4.5

5.1

4-89

7.1

7.0

6.9

6.9

7.3

7.4

7.2

8.1

7.8

7.3

6.9

6.9

6.3

6.2

5.1

5.6

6.1

7.2

7.1

7.1

7.1

7.4

7.6

7.4

8.3

7.9

7.5

7.3

7.3

6.8

6.8

6.2

6.9

7.9

9.6

7.1

7.0

6.9

6.9

7.2

7.4

7.2

7.9

7.6

7.2

7.0

6.9

6.5

6.5

5.9

6.3

6.8

7.1

4.6

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

0
1

1-88
2-88

2-90

3,378.6
3,439.4
3,520.1
3,578.9
3,661.7
3,697.3
3,743.4
3,799.6
3,887.7
3.931.9P

INITIAL QUARTER
P- P R E L I MINARY
P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
A UGUST 24, 1990

D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E I N 1982 D O L L A R S
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e )
T E RMINAL
Q U ARTER

INITIAL QUARTER
3-85

4-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

4.4

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

BIL L I O N S OF
DOL L A R S
A N NUAL RAT E S

2,562.8

1-86

5.9

7.4

2-86

6.0

6.8

6.2

2 ,609.2
2,648.6

3-86

4.0

3.9

2.2

-1. 7

4-86

3.5

3.3

1.9

-0.2

1.4

1-87

3.5

3.3

2.3

1.1

2.5

3.6

2,637.3
2,646.2
2,669.5

2-87

2.0

1.6

0.5

-0.8

-0.6

-1.5

-6.3

3-87

2.6

2.4

1.5

0.6

1.2

1.2

0.0

6.7

4-87

3.1

3.0

2.4

1.7

2.4

2.7

2.4

7.1

7.5

1-88

3.5

3.4

3.0

2.5

3.2

3.6

3.6

7.1

7.4

2,626.3
2,669.2
2,717.9
7.3

2,765.9

2-88

3.5

3.4

2.9

2.5

3.2

3.5

3.4

5.8

5.0

2.7

3-88

3.6

3.5

3.1

2.8

3.4

3.7

3.7

5.6

4.9

3.8

4.9

4-88

3.5

3.4

3.0

2.7

3.2

3.5

3.5

4.9

4.3

3.3

3.6

2.3

2,784.4
2,818.0
2,833.9

1-89

3.5

3.5

3.1

2.9

3.3

3.6

3.6

4.8

4.3

3.5

3.8

3.3

4.2

2-89

3.2

3.1

2.8

2.5

2.9

3.1

3.0

4.3

3.9

3.3

2.6

2.5

1.7

1.5

4.1

3.8

3.2

2.6

2.6

2.0

1.9

0.8

2.7

3.5

3.0

2.4

2.4

1.8

1.7

0.9

2.0

1.2

2,863.5
2 ,854.9

-1.2

3-89

3.2

3.1

2.8

2.5

2.9

3.1

3.0

4-89

3.1

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.8

2.9

2.8

1-90

3.0

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.8

2.9

2.8

3.7

3.4

2.9

2.4

2.4

2.0

1.9

1.3

2.2

1.9

2.5

CM

2.8

2.6

2.4

2.6

2.7

2.7

3.4

3.2

2.7

2.2

2.2

1.8

1.7

1.2

1.8

1.5

1.7

0.8

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-85

2,874.3
2 ,883.2
2,900.9
2 , 9 0 7 . OP

I NITIAL QUARTER
P- PRELIMINARY




P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. LOU I S
A U G U S T 24, 1990

18

C O R P O R A T E PROFITS AFTER TAXES
( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ] Rates of C h a n g e )
T E RMINAL
Q UARTER
4-85

INITIAL QUARTER
5-85

4—8 5

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

19.9

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

135.2

1-86

-23.6 -51.4

2-86

-18.1 -32.4

-5.9

3-86

-10.3 -18.6

5.4

18.0

4-86

-5.1 -10.5

9.7

18.4

18.8

112.9
111.2
115.9
121.0

1-87

2.9

-0.2

19.4

29.3

35.3

54.0

2-87

7.4

5.4

23.0

31.6

36.4

46.2

38.7

134.8

3-87

9.5

8.1

23.5

30.4

33.7

39.1

32.2

26.0

4-87

9.2

8 .0

21.0

26.2

27.9

30.2

23.2

16.0

6.9

146.3
155.0
157.6
171.6

1-88

12.0

11.2

23.3

28.1

29.9

32.2

27.3

23.7

22.6

40.6

2-88

12.6

11.9

22.7

26.8

28.2

29.8

25.4

22.3

21.1

28.9

18.1

3-88

12.2

11.5

21.2

24.6

25.5

26.5

22.4

19.3

17.7

21.6

13.1

8.3

4-88

178.9
182.5

12.4

11.8

20.6

23.7

24.3

25.0

21.3

18.7

17.2

20.0

13.8

11.7

11.1

10.4

18.3

20.7

21.0

21.3

17.7

15.0

13.2

14.5

8.8

5.9

4.7

2-89

8.2

7.4

14.2

16.1

15.9

15.6

12.0

9.0

6.8

6.7

1.0

-2.9

189.1

15.3

1-89

-5.0

186.7

-6.3 - 15.5 - 2 4 . 9

173.8

3-89

6.1

5.2

11.2

12.6

12.2

11.6

8.1

5.1

2.7

2.2

-3.1

6.1

5.3

10.9

12.2

11.8

11.2

7.9

5.3

3.2

2.7

-1.8

-4.8

-7.2 -12.1 - 1 4 . 3

1-90

5.9

5.1

10.3

11.5

11.0

10.4

7.4

5.0

3.1

2.6

-1.3

-3.8

-5.7

2-90

5.5

4.8

9.6

10.7

10.2

9.6

6.8

4.4

2.7

2.3

-1.3

-3.5

-5.0

3-85

4-85

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

163.6

-6.9 -10.4 - 17.6 - 2 3 . 2 - 2 1 . 5

4-89

166.3

-8 . 4

6.8

- 9.4 - 1 0 . 5

-5.1

4.3

1.9

-8.1

-8.7

-4.1

2.5

0.5

-1.0

1-89

2- 8 9

3-89

4-89

1-9C'

167.1
166 . 7P

INITIAL QUARTER
P- PRELIMINARY
P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S
AU G U S T 24, 1990

H IS T O

N A T IO N A L

E s t i m
o

f

N

C

u r r e n t

t h e
B u

I P A

J u
s i n

B u

l y

p u b l i s h e d

W

e a l t h

D e p a r t m




s i n

f o

D

J u
e

e n t

f u

l y

r t h

o

f o

N

e r

t i s

i n f o r m
n

C o m

m

r

l y

a

l

a t i o n

( B E - 5 4 ) ,
e r c e ,

W

t h e

r e g

1 9 8 4 ,

1 9 8 8

e

O F

P R O D U C T

a t e s

In c o m

t i c

S O U R C E S

A C C O U N T S

u

l a r

p u b l i s h e d

1 9 8 3 ,

E s t i m

a t i o n a l
t a

i n
a r e

J u

1 9 8 7 ,

i v i s i o
f

a t a

A N D

s e r i e s

c t i v e l y .

T h e

D

t h e

IN C O M E

1 9 8 7 - 9 0 :1 1

e s s .

r e s p
i n

r

r

1 9 2 9 - 8 2 : ______ S

F o r
a n d

f o

l e s

1 9 8 6 ,

e s s ,

S t a t e s .

a t e s

t a b

R IC A L

1 9 8 5

a n d
f o

a n d

r

J u

q

i n

u

a r t e r l y

t h e

a n d

l y

J u

f o

r e s e n

1 9 9 0

a r e

S u r v e y

s e r i e s

P r o d u c t

p

l y

1 9 8 6

1 9 8 9

N I P A

D A T A

r

A c c o u n t s

p
o

t a t i o

S u r v e y

u b l i s h e d

f

C

f

t h e

N

a t i o

o

f

i n

u r r e n t

1 9 2 9 - 8 2
o

n

U

a r e
n i t e d

T a b l e s .

a n d

p

B u r e a u

a s h i n g t o n ,

r i c e s ,
o f

D . C .

19

w

r i t e

E c o n o m

ic

2 0 2 3 0 .

t o
A

t h e
n

a l y s i s ,

U

n

a l

. S .

In c o m

e

INVENTORIES COMPARED WITH MONTHLY
M ANUFACTURING AND TRADE

SALES

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
72

I

72

6 8

.6 8

64

64

1.6 0

60

56

56

52

52

48

48
. 4 6 .

44

44

40

40

36

36
1976

1977

19 7 8

19 7 9

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

19 8 5

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

SOURCE: U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
«BE6INNIN 6

IN 1982,

INVENTORY DATA REFLECT CHANGES IN ESTIMATION PROCEDURES.

SHAOED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BUSINESS RECESSIONS.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED-. JUNE PRELIMINARY




PREPARED

20

BY

FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LOUIS


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102