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n n T i o n H L E c o n o m it cr e h d s
PREPARED

Month Ending:

BY

FEDERAL

RESERVE

August 31, 1979

BANK

OF

Released:

ST. LOUIS

September 28, 1979

GNP expanded at only an 8.6 percent annual rate during
the first two quarters of this year» reflecting in part a
•lowing in money stock (Ml) growth. During these quarters, the
implicit price deflator rose at a 9.3 percent rate and real GHP
fell at a 0.6 percent rate. The money stock, without
adjustments for new means of payment introduced in November
1978, declined at a 1.5 percent rate during the five months
from October 1978 to March 1978, following a 7.8 percent rate
of increase during the two years ending last October.
In recent months, the economy continued to show signs
of weakness. Industrial production rose at only a 1.6 percent
rate from the fourth quarter of 1978 to the second quarter of
1979. From March to August, however, industrial production
declined at a 3.3 percent rate, putting the index lower in
August than in December 1978. Payroll and civilian employment
growth have also slowed markedly since March. Unemployment has
risen from 5.7 percent of the civilian labor force in March to
6.0 percent in August*
Inventories are at low levels relative to sales despite
evidence that they have expanded faster than sales in recent
months. The ratio of business inventory to business final
sales (both in 1972 prices) rose from .269 in the last quarter
of 1978 to .278 in the second quarter of this year. Except for
two quarters just prior to the 1966-67 slowdown, the ratio at
the end of 1978 was at the lowest level in postwar history.
The second quarter ratio is about the same as the average for
1973, a year marked by shortages and low inventory.
Prices continue to reflect the impact of substantial
increases in energy costs over the past nine months and the
pace of monetary growth over the past three years. Consumer
prices rose at a 12.7 percent rate over the three months ending
in August while producer prices rose at a 13.3 percent rate.
The producer price index for fuel and related products and
power rose at a 43.6 percent rate from November 1978 to
August. From June to August, these prices rose at a 77.1
percent rate.




TOTAL CIVILIAN KMPLOHNCNT
_________________ CONPOUNQgQ AWNIIAL M 71S OP CHAN8I
___________________________________
1-78

2-78

3-78

2-70
W6

2 .9

44

6-78

7-78

8-78

IN ITIA L NONTH
9-71

1-79

THOUSANOS
OP PCftSONS
2-79

3-79

4-79

5-79

6-79

7-79

3.1

1 .4

5—78

1 .6

w e

4 -78

I
I
I

TEMINM.
nunin

5.6

93447
93*282
93*7C4

5 «M

3 .6

44

4 .4

3 .2

6-71

4 .5

5.2

6 .0

6 .1

9a

7-71

3^

3 .6

34

3 .2

3^

-2 .4

o- t s

3.3

3 .6

3 .7

3 .3

34

0 .5

3 .6

f -7 $

3 .4

3 .6

3 .7

3 .4

)«4

1 .6

3.6

3.7

10-78

3 .3

34

3 .6

3 .3

34

1.9

34

34

3.0

93*953
94*640
94*446
94*723
95*010
95*241

11-78

3 .7

3 .9

4 .0

3.8

3«9

2 .8

4 .2

44

44

6.6

12-7$

3 .4

3 .6

3 .7

3 .5

34

2 .6

34

34

34

3 .9

14

95*751
95*855

1-79

3.6

3 .8

3 .9

3 .7

34

34

4 .0

44

4.1

4 .5

3 .5

5 .7

2-79

3 .7

3 .9

3 .9

34

34

3 .2

4.0

4 .1

44

4 .5

34

5.1

44

1-79

3 .6

3.8

3 .8

3 .7

3.7

3.1

3.8

3 .9

3.9

4.1

34

4.2

3 .4

4—79

2.8

2 .9

2 .9

2.6

24

1 .9

2 .4

24

2.1

2 .0

1.1

1.0

-0 .5

-2 .9

-0 .0

5-79

2 .7

2.8

2.8

2 .6

24

1.9

24

24

2.1

1.9

14

14

0.1

HI . 4

-3 .2

M

4-79

2.9

3 .0

3 .0

24

2.7

24

2 .7

24

24

24

14

1.9

1.1

0 .3

-0 .4

3.7

7-79

3 .1

3 .1

3.1

34

34

2 .5

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.8

24

2.4

1.9

1 .4

1.1

•-79

2 .7

2 .7

2 .7

2 .5

24

2.0

24

24

2.2

2.1

14

1 .6

1.1

0.5

| o »i|

1*11

2*71

J -f l

brim

7-71

•»71' 9-71 lt -7 1 11-71 12^71" 1-79

J -T T

4-71 ' '5—71

96*300
96*647
96*842

2 .4

96*174

V . U .I70
X

96*318
96*754

44

5.7

5.8

97*210

24

2.4

0.9

96*900

4 -h

t-IT

54

5-79

6 -W

t-T f

IIVII1AL MJNIH
*

wm OF S T . LOWS

S»P7»N8t* 7* 1979

p a tk d ll w m jn m m
CONPOUNOfO ANNUAL M m OP CNAN8C
TtMUNM.
nunin
2-78

3-70

4-7 8

5-78

6-78

7-78

0-71

2-78

6 .3
7 .6

9 .1

6 .4

74

64

6 .2

6 .6

6.1

4 .1

5.2

54

4 .7

2 .9

2 .9

8-78

6 .7

4 .7

4 .1

2 .6

24

1.1

4.1

4 .1

3 .4

2.1

14

0 .8

0 .9

5-79

6-79

7-79

14

9-78

4-79

54

7-78

3-79

2 .8

6—78

2-79

1 0 .»

5-78

1-79

7 .9

4-78

9-78 10-78

4 .6

3-78

I
I

IN ITIA L NONTH
1-78

04

THOUSANOS
OP HRSOIS
84*188
86*726
85418
85418

V

*

0 .5

85*996
86433
86*149
86*163

10-78

4 .3

4 .3

3 .8

2 .7

2 .7

24

24

34

5 .9

11-78

43

4 .5

4 .1

3 .3

34

2.9

3 .5

4.2

64

12-78

4 .4

4 .4

4 .0

34

34

3 .0

3.5

44

54

5 .0

34

1-79

4 .6

44

4 .0

3 .3

34

3.1

34

3 .9

44

4 .5

34

3 .4

2-79

4 .3

4 .3

4 .0

3 .4

34

34

3.6

34

4 .7

4 .4

34

3 .7

44

1-79

4.5

4 .5

4 .2

3 .6

3.7

3.5

3.9

44

4 .9

4*7

44

4 .6

5.2

6 .3

4—79

4.2

4 .1

3.8

3 .3

34

34

3 .4

3.7

4 .2

3 .9

34

3 .6

34

3 .0

5-79

4.1

4.1

3.8

3 .4

34

3 .2

3.5

3 .7

4.2

M

34

3.5

3.5

3 .3

6-79

_4*l

44

3 .0

3 .3

34

34

3 .5

3.7

4 .0

3 .8

34

3 .4

3.4

7-79

3.9

3 .8

3.6

3 .2

34

3 .0

3 .2

34

3 .7

3 .5

3.1

3 .0

8-79

3.7

34

3 .4

3 .0

34

24

34

3.1

3 .4

3.1

2.7

2 .6

-------------------1^ T >

F 7T

l» T I

4 - 71

5 -1 1

6 - 71

F- 71

8 - 71

f»W

86*573
64

87*036

U »H

87*281

^ T l

87*524
87418
88*263
\

88*248

,1 *5 %

1.9

44

34

24

JU 6 __3.1

3 .0

2 .7

1.9

24

1.9

0.7

2.5

2.3

1.9

14

0.3

l - TF l = ^

T -W

>

88*539

7f > W

88*764

» » 7»

88 413P
0 4 \

66*815?

T -T 9

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- 119111AL IU IIH --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------K* PH a ININA W---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------




---------PWiPAW I T T 1D0 U C * B f* V € SANK OP S T« LOUIS
IU
S V T I W C R 7* i f W

2




EMPLOYMENT
RATIO SCALE
MILLIONS OF PERSONS

RATIO SCALE
MILLIONS OF PERSONS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

110

105
100

95
90

85

80

75

70

65
1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

SOORCEt t .S.OEPARTNENT OF LAOOR
l
FERCENTAOES ARE ANIMAL KATES OF CHANCE FOR PERI 00$ INO 1CATEO.
LATEST OATA PLOTTEOt AOOOST FUEL ININAHY
PREPAREO OY FEOERAL RESERVE OANK OF ST. LOUIS

UNEMPLOYMENT
PERCENT

1971

SEASONALLY

1972

1973

1974

RATE
PERCENT

A D JU STED

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

SOORCEt O.S. OCPARTNfNT OF LAOOR
PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LAOOR FORCE
U T E S T OATA PLOTTEO« AOOOST

PREPAREO OY FEDERAL RESERVE OANK OF ST. LOOIS

3

CONPOUNOCO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE
1967*100

IN ITIA L MONTH

TERMINAL

1-76

2-76

4-76

3-76

5-76

6-76

7-76

6-76

9-76 10-76 11-7» 12-76

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

5-79

6-79

7-79
166.6

2-76

6.0

3-76

6 .6

9.3

4-76

9 .3

9.9

10.6
10.5

190.2
191.6
193.4

5-76

9.6

10.1

10.5

6-76

9 .7

10.2

10.5

10.4

10.4

7-76

9 .4

9.7

9.6

9 .5

9.0

7.6

6-76

9 .0

9.2

9.2

6.9

6.3

7 .3

195.0
196.2
197.3

6 .9

196.9

9-76

9 .2

9.3

9.4

9.1

6 .»

6.2

6.5

10.2

10-76

9 .3

9.5

94~

9 .4

9.2

» .9

9 .3

10.5

10 .»

11—76

9.2

9.3

9.3

9.1

6.9

»4

6.6

9 .4

9.1

12-76

9.1

200.6
201.6

7.4

203.2

9.2

9.2

9 .0

6.6

6.6

6.6

9.2

6.9

6.0

» .7

1-79

9 .4 ~ *9.5

9.5

9 .4

9.3

9 .1

9 .4

9.9

9.6

9.5

10*5

124

2-79

9 .9

10.1

10.0

10.0

9 .9

10.3

10.6

10.9

11.0

12.2

14.0

154

3—79

10.1

1 0 4 “ 10.4

10.3

10.3

10.3

10.7

11.2

11.4

114

12.5

13.9

14.6

13.5

212.2

10.0

205*2
207.7
209.9

4—79

10.4

10.5

10.6

10.6

10.7

10.7

11.0

114

11.7

11.9

12.6

13.9

14.4

' v N . j 13.9*
13.7 14.0

5-79

10.5

10.7

10.6

10.6

10.9

10.9

11.2

11.7

11.9

12.1

12.9

13.7

14.1

134

13.6

13.2

214.4

6—79

10.7

10.9

11.0

11.0

11.0

11.1

11.4

11.9

12.0

124

12.9

13.6

13.9

13.4

13.4

13.1

216.6

13.4

7—79

10.6

10.9

11.0

11.1

11.1

11.2

11.5

11.9

12.1

124

12.6

6-79

10.9

11.0

11.1

11.2

11.2

114

11.6

12.0

12.1

124

12.6

134

13.2

13«rl

12.6

12.7

1 2 .3 ^ ^ ^

216.7

134

13.1

13.0

12.6

12.7

12.5

124^

220.9

2 -H Jb IS

4-29

5 -2 »

lr-79

7—21------

4 -7 ».. .5 -2 » _4r2» 7-76. A«=7»_ 9-JUL jLfl-n 1 1 -2 » 12-2» -1=25

1-16.. 2 r2 ».

IN IT IA L H M m
♦CM*« FOR UR6AN MMf lAMKKS ANO CLERICAL WORKERS
>v w m m i if M t y g i A i t n » s r . i
SCFTENKR 26» 1979
wwow m m e t i wp i i » a l l m m u u r n is - 'snmoNALLv A c o u m o
CONFOUND» ANNUAL KATES OF CHANOC
TKRNINAL________________________________________________________ IN ITIA L MONTH_________ _____ _______
_
HONTN
1 -7 » 2-76 >->70 W l 5—7> » - 7 » T»T$ »-7 6 f - T I 10-76 11-76 I M S
1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79
2 -7 »

114

12*1

12*1

13.7

5—7$

11*2

10*9

11.1

»«5

6—7»

10*9

10.6

10.6

9*1

9*7

7 -7 »

9 .9

9 #5

9 .2

7 .»

7*5

5*3

0 -7 »

9.1

»♦6

6 .2

6 .6

44

4 .7

4.1

9-76

9 .2

» .6

» ♦5

7.5

7 .3

6 .5

7.1

6-79

10*6

4 -7 »

5-79

_

12 »0

» -7 »

__

1967 « 100
7-79
202.2

203.9
206.1
207.5
209.1
210.0

210.7
10.1________

212.4
214.6

10-7»

9 .6

9 .5

9 .3

» .6

» .7

6 .4

9.5

12.3

14.4

11-76

9 .»

94

9 .4

» .»

» .9

6 .7

9 .6

11.5

12.2

9 .9

12-7»

9 .7

94

9 .4

6 .9

» .9

6 .6

9.5

10.9

11.2

9.6 _

1-79

104

10.2

10.1

9 .»

9 .9

1 0 .»

10.»

12.1

12.6

12.1

216.5

9.2

216.1

13.1

2 2 1 .0

224.1

r- 7»

y>7 T

3 - 71

6—76" ~
5—7» ' 6 - 7»

"7—71 6-76 “
*-7» 10-7» U-71
Twr i m

I F T T W

W

l-W

4—7f

5—79

6-79

MJNIH

R-REVISED




W i BW »V M H U l » B K M
t P I I W W T , 1 »W

4

MNK Of S T. LOUI t




P R IC E S

RA TIO SCALE

O P IHI m
A U M t A N {M I M M I
s p i * « m * «m a n « a m l A M d t a
f U t t m m t A M A N M A L SATIS M

m

R ATIO SCALE

a n i Ca i m m u $
CMAWtf P M PtftlMS IMICATfS.

LATffT M T A fLSTTCSt A M M T
M t T A M S tY FfKltAL U H M

RATIO SCALE

PRODUCER P R IC E S

«AM *

St. I M I S

RATIO SCALE

r ( I C I N T M ( t A M A M W A l SATIS 9f CtfAMt F M M K f M S IM l CATC».
tATIST SATA PlSTTtSt A M S S T
M t ' A U S SY FtSCSAL DfSfAVt SANK ST ST. I M ' S

5

KMVOUCfcK PRICfc INOCXt INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COMFOUNPgQ ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6C
TERMINAL

IN ITIA L NONTH
1-78

2-78

2-78

3-78

4-78

5-78

6-78

7-78

8-71

1967 « ICO

9-78 10-78 11-78 12-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

5-79

6-79

7-79

7 .4

2C3.1

3-78

6a

5 .4

4-78

7 .7

7.9

204.C
10.5

205.7

5-78

7.9

8.1

9 .5

8.5

6-78

8.2

8 .3

9 .3

8.8

9a

7-78

8 .3

8 .5

9.2

8.8

9a

9 .0

8-78

e.a

8 .3

8 .9

8.5

8a

8 .3

7.7

w e

8*1

8 .7

8*4

8^

8*1

7*7

7.6

9 .0

8*7

8a

8*7

8*6

9.1

207.1
208.6

10-78

8*4

1W 8

8.5

8*6

9 .0

8 .8

1-79

9.1

9 .2

9 .6

9 .5

9a

9 .1

2-79

9.5

9 .7

10.0 10.0

10a

10.3

3-79

9 .9

10.0

10.4

10.4

10a

10.8

4-79

10.4

10.6

11.0

11.0

lia

11.5

5-79

10.5

10.7

6-79

10.7

7-79
8-79

2 U .7

8^6

12-78

210.1
211a

8*5

¿u a

10*6

216.2
8a

8*8

8.8

9 «!

9a

9 .0

9.8

io a

1 1 .0

u .i

10.5

11.0

11.7 11.9 1 2 a

14.9

14a

X

222.7

11.0

11.5

12a

12.3

13.2

14.9

14.7

14.9

225a

11.8

12.3

13.0

13.4

14.1

15.6

15.7

16.4

11.1 11.1 11 a

11.6 11.8 12a

12.9

13.2

13a

14.9

14.8

15.0 15.0 12.2

11.0

11.3

11.4

lia

11 a

12.1

12a

13.1

13.4

13.9

15.0

14.9

15.0

15.0

13.6

15.0

233.3

lia

11.5

11.9

12.0

12a

12.5

12.9

13.3

13.9

14.3

14.8

15.8

15.9

16.2

16.5

16.1

18.1

237.1

11.7

11.9

12.3

12.4

12.7

12.9

13.2

13.7

14.3

14.7

15.2

16.2

16.5

16 a

14.6

18.1

l» 7 T " y 7 l

3*78

4*78

5*78

6^71— 7- 78 ..8^71

8*1

220.2

n a

f — 10-78 11-1»
71

— mi

iia l

217.6

1 6 .1 % —
17.8

* ** * * X
L
230.6

19.7

18.0

240.4

12—71 1-79 2-79 1-7» <^Tf " ^7»~ &T9 T-79
3

m iiw

iw u u o u r p i i c r m i X t farm frooucts t iMtoctssco foods c f h o s - h a s . a o j.
______________________ CONFOUND» ANNUAL RATfS OF CHANCE___________
TERMINAL
_ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _ _
—
non nr~
1-78 2-78

............

3—78

.i

4-78

5-78

2-78

30.8
29.9

30.4

23.3

2i a

u a

21.6

19a

15.8

10.0

16.1

13.7

9 .4

3 .8

2.9

8-78

12.0

9 .5

5 .3

0 .3

»-7 8

13.3
15.2

13.7

11.2

8 .5

11-78

14a

U .I

10.8

oa

12-78

14.3

u a

10.9

9 .0

9a

1-79

15.1

14.0

12.2

10*6

u a

2-79

16.4

15a

14.0

12.7

13a

3-79

16.8

15.9

14.6

U .5

4-79

15.9

15.0

13.7

5-79

14.0

U .I

11.8

6-79

12.5

11.5

10.2

7-79

12.3

u a

8-79

11.2

io a

1-71

------------------------------------------- ------------------ -----

1-79

2-79

3 -7 »

—

4 -7 »

.

..

.

5-79

..

6-79

~ ..—

1967 • 10#

—

7-79

11.2

10-78

—

14a

7-78

M IT1AL MONTH
— . -

9-78 10-78 11-71 12-78

5 .4

6 -7 »

.

28.1

5-78

8-78

32 a

4-78

.

7-78

28.8

3-78

6-78

196.5
201.2
205a
206.3

-ia

208.7
-7 .8

207a

-» a

-» .4

9a

7a

U .6

27.2

32.0

9a

8 .0

12.3

20.7

u a

8a

12.2

u a

17.1

10.2

11.7

10.7

14.2

i»a

U .9

14.8

1 7 .»

24.4

U .4

16.8

21.8

21.7

1 ».2

22. »

2 8 .»

33.5

u a

14a

17.3

21.7

21a

1 ».6

22.5

26.4

27.3

21.4

12.4

u a

u .i

15.7

u a

1 8 .»

16.8

u a

20.3

18.9

U .2

10.7

u .i

io a

12.8

15a

14.8

U .5

u a

U .4

10.8

4.1

9 .1

9a

8.9

10.6

u a

u a

» .5

» .6

» .2

10.2

9.1

9a

8.9

10.4

U .4

u a

»a

» .5

» .2

6.8

9.1

8 .0

8a

7.8

» .1

10.7

7.7

7.4

7 .1

4a

■Z=7f~~ J —71” 4-71

5=71

6-71

T-7 1 H K 7 1 11-71 12-78

1 -7 »

205a
209.1




7-7T" • - H

» .7

214.0
8.7

2i s a
217.5
221.5

_

6a

226.9

_

230.4
3.7

2u a

-3 .4 -1 0 .4

229.2

0>5_ -5 .6

j^».9

^ »a

2.1

-2 .2

- 4 .1

-o a

8.8

0 .7

-3 .8

-4 .6

-2 a

l.l

-6 .1

3 -7 »

4^79

5 -7 »

'6-79

7-79

W

227a
228.9
227.7

FRXFARID 8V FKOCRAL RESERVE DANK OF S T. LOUIS
AUGUST 9 » 1979

6

i

I N D U S T R I A L PRODU CTION
RATIO SCALE

RATIO SCALE

1967*100

1971

1967-100

S E ASONALLY ADJUSTED

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

PEftCEtfTACES Aftt AMNtAl RATES tf COAWSt P M PE* IM S INtlCATU.
LATEST SATA PISTTEit M U S T PRELIMINAAY
PREPARE# tV PEKftAL RESERVE IAMK M ST. I M I S

________ INOUSTRIAL PRODUCTION____________________________
CONPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL

IN ITIA L MONTH
1-78

2-78

3-78

4-78

5-78

6-78

7-78

8-78

1 H T « 100

9-78 10-78 11-78 12-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

5-79

6-79

7-79
140*3

2 -T8

"2*6

3-78

~9* 3 ~16^5~

142*1
144*4

4-78

13*2

18*9

21.2

3—78

10*4

11.5

12.0

3 .4

4-78

10*8

12*9

11*7

7.3

11*3

10.3

7.V

9.1

8*1

144*8
146*1
147*1

8-78

7 .6

148*0

io*o

11*3

4—78

9*4

10*4

9 .4

7.1

8.1

7 .0

6 .*

5*0

10-78

9*3

10*2

9 .3

7.5

8.3

7 .6

7 .3

7.1

11-78

9*2

9 .9

9.1

7.5

8.2

7 .6

7 .i

nt

9 .3
8 .4

7.5

1-79

8*2

8.V

8.0

6 .6

7.0

6 .4

6.1

5*8

6.0

4.9

3.6 [ - ± .3

2-79

7 .9

$•3

7.6

6.3

6 .7

6.1

5.8

5.5

5.6

4.7

3*8

148*6
149*7
150*6
151*8

12-78

0.8

\

151*5
152*0

4*0

-

5—79

7 .9

8*3

7.7

6.5

6*8

6 .3

6*1

5*9

6 .0

5*4

4*9

3*2

6*1

4-79

6.1

6*4

5.6

4 .4

4 .5

3*9

3*4

2*9

2*6

1*5

0*3

-2*0

-1 .8

5-79

6 .4

6.8

6.2

5.1

5.2

4 .*

4 .3

4 .0

3*9

3*1

2*4

1*6

1*8

1*1

-2*3

13*5

4-79

4.2

6.4

5.8

4 .7

4.8

4.3

3*9

3.6

3*4

2*7

2*1

0*8

1*4

0*8

-1*6

6*5

7-79

5*9

6.1

5.5

4.5

4 .6

4.1

3*2

2*6

4 .é

5.0

4 .3

3.4

3.4

0*9
n

1*5

8-79

1-7$

2-78

3-78

4-78

3-78

4—78 10-78 11-78 12-78

1-79

¿"
*ê

6-78

3*t

3 .4

¿«4

2.0

7-78

8-78

”T*t 1
.6

2*6
0*3

(±3 •é*t

i

153*0
150*8

-4*6 -14*0

152*4
152*4

0*0
1*6

0*9

-0*8

4*9

0*8

-1*4

-3*3

0*2

-3*9

-5*8 -12*6

2-79

3-79

4-79

3-79

4-Tt

IN ITIA L MONTH
_ P - PRELIMINARY

_______________________ ;___________________ _______________

7

152*6P
130.9P

7-79
.

_________

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- PREPAREO BY PEOfRAL RESERVE PAN* Of ST« LOUIS
SEPTEMBER 14* 1974




)

..

PERSONAL

INCOME

RATIO SCALE
M O N T H L Y TOTALS AT ANNUAL
TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS
S EASONALLY AOJUSTED

RATES

RATIO SCALE
TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS

SOiRCE: » . S . DEPARTMENT OP COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANIMAL RATES OP CHANCE POR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* AOOOST PRELIMINARY
PREPARED DY PEDERAL RESERVE DANK OP ST. LOO IS

PERSONAL INCOME
CQRpowogQ annual m t i s o f

chance

BILLIONS OF
OOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

IN ITIA L MONTH
1»TS
_9 * 9

2 »TI
*

l» T S

4-78

5-78

4-78

T -T I

>»7t

9-78 10-78 1 H 8 12-TS

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

5-74

6-79

7-79
1*631.3

______________________________________________________

1*654.4

4—7B

15*1

17*8

17*3

1*676*5

5-76

13.3

14*5

12*5

8*0

6—78

13*2

14*0

12*6

10*3

12*7

7-78

14*3

15*1

14*3

13*4

16*2

19*8

8-78

13*4

13*9

13*1

12*0

13*4

13*8

1*687.3
1*704.2
1*730.0
8*1

1*741.3

9-78

13*0

13*5

12*7

11*8

12*7

12*7

9*4

10*7

1*756.1

10-78

13*6

14*1

13*5

12*9

13*8

14*1

12*3

14*5

1*761.0

11-78

13.7

14*1

13*6

13*1

14*0

14*2

12*9

14*5

12-78

14.1

14*5

14*1

13*7

14*6

14*9

14*0

15*5

16*5

18*3

1-79

13*3

13*6

13*2

12*7

13*3

13*4

12*4

13*3

12*5

11*5

2-79

13*2

13*5

13*1

12*6

13*2

13*2

12*3

13*0

12*3

11*6 „ M

3-79

13.3

13*6

13.2

12*8

13*3

13*3

12*6

13*2

12*7

12*2

4-79

12*8

13*0

12*6

12*2

12*6

12*6

11*8

12*2

11*5

10*9

9*1

10*5

9*9

5-79

12.4 _12*6

12*2

11*8. 12*1

12*1

11*3

11*7

10**

10*3

•±1

9.7

9*0

6-79

12*2 Jl??*

11*9

11*6

11*9

11*8

11*1

11*4

10*6

10*1

.• t «

7-79

12*4

12*6

12*2

11*4

12*2

12*2

11*5

11*9

11*3

10*9

9.8

8-79

12*1

12*2

11*8

11*5

11*7

11*7

11*1

11*3

10*7

10*2 1 9*3 1 9*9
1 .1

1 -7 «

Z-7Ü

3*TI

5-fO

O-fO

7—70

*— ro




I f 801.4

14*6

1*8^6.8
1*834.3

5*0 \

1*851.4

_ 11*8
_|4*3

IQ-7® 11-76 12—7®

1-79

1*880.7
6*4

1*891.6

7*2

10*5

8*0

8*9

9*5

10*8

12*7

16*^

.„ a .7

9*9
10*7

1*872.1

— \ jy w
/o

9*4

10.2

10*9

»

1*905.1
1*429.7
5 .4 \

1*938. IP

2-79

IN ITIA L NONTH

FMFARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
SEPTEMBER IB » 1979

8

RATIO SCALE
BILLIONS OF OOLLARS

PIlCtHTAQEt ARE AMWAL RATtf

R E T A I L SALES
RATIO SCALE
BILLIONS OF OOLLARS

S E ASONALLY ADJUSTED

M W C Et t . $ . KPARTNENT *
CHANCI P M PER I M S IN DIC ATO .

CMNKRCt

LA U S T RATA PLOTTEDt M Y , ADC9ST ADVANCE (STIMATE
P K P A U I RY K K R A l RCtfRVC RANK *

ST. LDMIS

RETAIL SALES
"O T W J U W tü ANWJAt AÀT6 S 0# t H W U

-------------------------------i n i t i a l m m -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------

J U W lH k l

MONTH

1=71" 2-78

3-78 4-71 3-78 4-78

7 -7 3

o -t t

* -n

io -7 t 11-73 a - n

1= 7»

3- 7 *

m w

21*3

6*,é9é

. 2*W
1

"6 4 ^7 3

' 43,144

4-78 ” 22; 7 T T T " “E T 7 T
17 1

14

14*5

13 2

10 4

1=78

19« 3

14

3

12 3

9—TO.

13*4

14

10-71

15*5

11-71
12-ta
1-79
2=79
3-79
4-79

16*2
16*0
14*9

14
13
15
13
13
13
11
11

4 12
8 13
7 14
5 14
9 12
1 12
4 12
4 10
3 10
4 9
3 9
2 9

5 -7 i

18*6

TiSft

0
#

4-79

3

63,322
63#944

13*7

19*9

6->9

12*1
11*9
lia

7-79

10*9

B—79

10«8 10

5—Y9

10
10

— s n r ■ <r:i~

66*224

11 «9

12*8

21*4

9

12*2

13 «3

18*1

14*9

3
4
3
8
1
4
3
4
3
3
4

13# I

14 «9

I4 * t

13*9

14*3
12*3
11*6
12*1
9*8
9*8

13*6
"IfiTT"
12*0
12*3
9*9
""9.9

17*T
18*9
1T*9
14*3
13*6
13*3
10*3
10*4

13*8
18*1
17*0
13*1
11*7
12*4
4*2
9*2

8*8

8 #9

9*2

8*1

8*8

8*8

4*1
8*8 _9;t

0*1

8*8

67,303

8*1

68 ,083

14*8
19*7
17*7
i2f;7
11*0
12*0
8*4

48,971

22*7

18*2 13*8
r v
11*4 8«1 1-1.1 ^
9*7 3*6 1*7 4*4
li*o é«3 6*3 10*3 'ir.rs. ......
.. ""
7*1 4*2 1*9 2*9 " 57i ^O.fs^ 3 ^ 7*
8*8
7*4
3*1 3*4 4*4 4*3 -1*1 9*8
7*J
6*2
4*1
2*3
3*1 ¿*9 -1*3 3*t - M S .
7*4
4*3 4*6 3*3 4*1 4*0 1*0 3*2 3*1 8*3
1 '
l
7*8 6*7 3*0 1*»° 1 4*7 4*7 2*3 4*1 4*9 8*3 8 * ^

1-7

12—78

l» T t

3-79

4-79

» -T f

» -7 »

70,138
>0,918
70,833
71,122
72,043
71,366
71,914
71,803
72,283P

72,786E

T»Tf

IN ITIA L MONTH
P - PRELIMINARY
T = _5STIHAW>------




PREPAREO >Y PEOERAL RESERVE BANK OP ST# LOUIS

a n w u k i l » 1979

9

HOURLY COMPENSATION» PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR
m m m B iTFs fy change _________
TERMINAL

-IN IT IA I QUABTEB

QUAR T E R

OUTPUT PfR HOUR OF ALL PERSONS» PRIVATE BUS IN K S SECTOR
RATOS om CHAMP»______________
IXBttUlM
QUARTER

M lIliL fll
1 -7 4

1- 7 «

9 —7 4

1967 i 100_____

um a.
1 .7 7

a-7 4

9 -7 7

4 -7 4

1 A O .A

1 -T5

lA o .m

- 0 .9

2 -7 5

1 *2

1-75

4.2

4—75

2.8

1-76
2-74

11.A A .

1 1 9 .4

I 9 .s l
t-z iz d
5.4

2 .1

1 .4

5 .9

4.1

2 .5

1 *1

5*0

1.4

2*1

4*4

l . i V

2 .B

2 .0

1 .1

1 .4

1 .7

1 .7

1 1 4 .4

-2 ^ ^ V ^

1 « . 7
11* .A
1 1 4 .2

1-74

1 1 4 .7

\

1 1 7 .9

4 -7 4

2 .9

4 .1

1 -7 7

1 .1

4 .1

1 .1

2 .4

1 .4

2 .1

2 .6

1 .1

4. 5

2 -7 7

2 .7

1 .5

2 .5

i.a

2 .5

1 .5

1 .5

1 .5

1 -4

4 .7

9.A

9.«

«.A

2 .2

2 .4

2 .4

2 .0

2.A

W 77

^

llft.%

1 7 «L

*

* .9

9 .4

1.«

2 .4

1 .7

l . i

I.A

l.A

0 .4

9 .9

• 1.«

>•7 «

2 .4

2 .4

2 .1

1 .4

2 .1

1 .4

1 .4

1 .4

i.m

0 .5

1 .2

—1 . A

—A . 7

J -7 *

2 .4

9 .0

2 .1

1 .7

2 .1

1 .5

1. «

1 .5

1.«

A .O

1 .5

A .l

A .A

U 7*

2 .4

2 .4

2 .2

l . i

2 .2

1 .4

1 .7

1 .7

1 .4

1 .2

l.A

A .f t

1. «

1 1 .7

1t*

lift .A

4 -7 7

4- 7A

2 .1

2 .7

2 .1

2 .0

1 .5

1 .4

1. »

1 .1

1 .4

A t7

«• 7 0

5 -fi

9 -4

1 -f t

1 -4

1 .7

1 .2

1 .9

1 .1

A .4

l.A

9. M

1 .A

9 .1

1 .4

1 .1

1 .4

A .«

A .O

A .«

fl- 7

A .*

A .«

4-75

1-76

2-76

1-76

4-76

1-77

2-77

1-74

4

1-75




2-75

1-75

_

1 9n .K
| tO

|r7

A T*

A .9

1

119 r 1

At^

J

A -A

1-77

4-77

A
2 .i%

-f
.4

I —7B

2-78

1 - 7B

4-78

1-79

IN ITIA L QUARTER

PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS
AMO 1ST 79, 191»-----------------------------------------------------------------------

10

PRO DUCTIVITY, COMPENSATION* AND LABOR COSTS
RATIO SCALE

1967-100

RATIO SCAIE

S AO A AJ SE
E S MllY OUT O

1967-100
220

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

MW t t
MfAtîMMT » U M
PfftCtNTAMS AAf AHN9AL «ATtS * CttAWt F M P f R I M t IMICATtl.
LAîitT »ata n * r m < t m m a h t m faclimimasy
P M F A K I IT FftCtAL f t t t t m I A M «F ST. i M I t

UNIT LABOR COSTS, PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR
a m 5 f » CHANCE______
T f U U M IL
QUARTfR
3 sl4

IN ITIAL QUA»T U
ém?A__ IsZS__ 2clS__ V rTI

4itT*__ lsZ6__2*26__W76

4«7ft

1B4T

U T 1 ..2 j J T

H H

4«77__U

2 «ia — \mlà

A sià ___ la .a

3-74

400-

àmlà— u a .
IS7.7

1-75




2-75

3-75

4-75

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

1-77

2-77

3-77

4-77

1-78

2-78

3-7B

4-78

1-79

IN ITIA L QUARTER

PREPAREO BV FEOERAL KfcSfcKVt dANK OF S I . LOUIS
AUSUST » , 1 0 » ----------------------------------------------------------------------

11

M M m n o m L fro o u ct m c w w i t o o l la r i
COWOUNOtD (PHMI. lU TtS OF CMMM
I N D I A I QUARTfR

TERMINAL

4 -7 4
1-75

| ^ 3 .Y £
6*4
« ■ i
I 3*5 | 0*6

2-75

6*4

6*5

1-75

2-75

1-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

1-76

4-76

1-77

2-77

1-77

4 -77

1-78

2-78

1-78

4-76

U U JO N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATCS
1-79
1,452.4
1,454*7

12.6

1 «496*6

^ v J 3 -7 %

1-75

1,564*0

4 -7 5

1,598*0

10*9 Ü j 3

14.0

11.6

X
14.7

10.1

12.4

12.1

10.1

10.9

7.1

9 .5

10.0

11.6

11.4

9 .7

9 .9

7 .7

1-77

10.1

10.6

11.9

11.7

10.6

U .0

10.1

11.0

12.5

15.4

2 -7 7

10.4

10.8

12.0

11.9

11.0

lia

10.6

U .5

12.6

14.1

12.6 ^ g v . 5 %

1,676.0

1-77

10.5

10.9

12.0

11.9

11.1

11.4

10.9

11.6

U .5

U .5

U .5

U .l

1,410.5

4 -7 7

10.4

10.7

11.7

11.6

10.6

11.1

lè ^

u a

11.7

12a

11.2

10a

1-70

10.2

10.5

11.4

11.1

10.6

10.6

10.1

10.7

11.2

u a

10.5

9.7

6a

6 .4

2-71

10.8

11.2

12.0

12.0

11.4

lia

11.1

11.6

12.4

12a

U .1

12a

u a

U .9

1—7#

10.9

11.2

12.0

11.9

11.4

lia

n a

11.7

u a

12.5

12.1

11.9

11.9

U .9

15a

....

\

6-7 0

11.1

11.4

12.1

12.1

11.6

11.8

11.6

12.0

U .5

12a

12.5

12«4

u a

U .4

15.1

u a

14a

X

2,215*2

1-79

11*1

11.1

12.0

12.0

U .5

u a

12a

12*2

12.1

U .l

u a

14.0

u .l

u a

10.6 I

2,292*1

2 -7 *

10.6

11.1

11.7

11.7

11.2

11.7 [ l i a ] 11.9
*
lia
11.1 11.4

11*6

12a

u a

u a

u a

u a

12.5

16.7

10.6

8*6

6 .7

1 -74

4 -7 4

1 -TS

2-75

1-75

4*71

1-76

1-76

4-76

1-77

2-77

1-77

4-77

1-78

2-78

1-78

4-76

1-79

1 -76

10.2

2-76

9 .8

1-7 6

1,651*7

X

1,681*1

6 .0

1,715*6
1,756*1

2-76

in it ia l

1,820*2

6 .7

1,971.1

\

2,011.1

19.6

2,104*2
2,159*6

2,129*6

QUART«

___ _

________ u m « f w n r t » M i o f

SCFTCNOfR I t , W »

___ __________in itn

tTt inni

oqums

COHFOUW O ANNUAL RATIS OF CHANM
Oi
TERMMAL

4 -7 4

OOLLARS

IN IT IA L QUARTCR

~ 4 -7 4

2-75

4 -7 4 1-75
7 ML

1-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

1-76

4-76

1-77

2-77

1-77

4-77

1-78

2-78

1-78

4-76

1-79
1,199.7

-5 .5 ^

■ V

1,171.6

1-75

h T * »l

2-75

—2*9

-1 . 6

1-75

0 .1

2 .1

M \ 7 .5 %
6 .4

4 -7 5

0#7

2 .4

6 .5

■

1,189.9

1,220.0

2a"

1,227*9

6a

1
I

1,259*5

1-76

2 .1

4 .0

2 -76

2 .4

1 .7

6 .5

5.2

1-7 6

2 .4

1*6

5 .9

4 .7

I

m

1,267*4

45

2a

5a

4-7 6

2 .6

1 .6

5a

4a

4 .9

1,277*1

ia

1*6

i* i

X

1,288*1

ia

1-7*

1 .*

4 .2

6 .0

5a

5 .t

4*5

5*1

6.1

8*6

2-7 7

1 .1

4*2

5 .0

5.1

5.5

4*5

5*0

5 .7

6*6

1-77

1 .6

4*5

6a

5.1

5 .7

4*9

5a

6a

6*9

5 .9

7 .0 '

4 -7 7

1 .5

4*1

5 .6

5.0

5 .1

4 .5

4*9

5a

5.7

4 .6

4*6

1-78

1 .4

4*1

5 .1

4 .7

4 .9

4 .2

4 .5

4 .7

4*9

4 .0

1*7

2.1

1.9^

2-76

1 .7

4 .4

5 .5

5 .0

5.2

4 .7

4*9

5.2

5.5

4 .6

4.6

4.1

5.0

6.1

\

1,115*7

4 .r

1,111*2

^ 4 ,3 %

1,151*9

1,161*1
1,167*8
1,195*2

1-76

1 .7

4 .1

5a

6.9

5.1

4a

4.6

5 .0

5*2

6.6

4*5

1 .9

4 .5

5*9

1 .5

4-78

1.6

4.4

5a

4.9

5.1

4.6

4*6

5.0

4a

4.7

4.7

4a

4*6

5.6

4.6

5*6

1-79

1.7

4.2

5.1

4.7

4a

1 4.11 4*5

4 .6

4*6

4*1

4.2

1 .7

4.1

4.6

1 .4

1 .1

1 .1

1*9

4 .7

4.2

4a

1.6

*♦9

4 .0

4.0

1*5

1.4

2.9

1 .0

1.2

1.9

1 .4

-0 .6

-2 .1

1-74

4 -7 4

1-75

1-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

1-76

4-74

1-77

2-77

1-77

4-77

1-78

2-78

1-78

4-76

1-79

2 -7 9




2-75

1

1

in it ia l

« u*

1,407*1

1,426*6
1,430*6

1 .1 V

1,422*3

t i*

FRt FARIP IY » » » A L RIHRV1 iAHC OF IT > LOUIS
StPTfMBf* 19, 1979

12

GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT
R A T I O SCALE
QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES
R A T I O SCALE
T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S
SEASONALLY AOJUSTEO
T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S

2.
2.
2.
2

2.3

2.2
2. I
0

I.

1.1

I.

1.0

0.9

0 .

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

SOURCE: U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS IN D IC A TE D .
LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 2ND QUARTER




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS

13

GENERAL P R I C E

RATIO SCALE

IN D E X *
RATIO SCALE

1972-100
170

1972-100
170
*
*
165
4lo S *0l
160
155

165

160
155

//

150

145

150

145

si?

140

140

135

135

130

130

125
." .u A

125

r

120

120

//
V

115
110

115
1 1O

105

105
♦J

100

100

95

95

90 1
1

ì*t
A

T
1971

1972

tsr 4JT.W

1973

1974

m m \*7T

'A

Ti1

1975

1976

1977

1T

1978

1979

«A* « S M IH NATI MAC IN C «* ACCMNT »
SMftCCt l . t . KPAJtTNCNT *
PMCCNTAMS Aftf ANNSAL « A U S M CNANtC F M f U lO B t IN tIC A TC i.

90

CMNCftCt

LATCST IATA U S T T t t t tN » N A I T U
P t t f A M l »Y F I H I A l K t i m

itrucncowpouwpgo m mmtm f u t is
mici pmATOft
TCW1NAI

of chanm

SANK «

S t. I M I S

m rasi.

IM ITIAL QUAftTf*

5-74
4 -7 4

11*4

1-75

2-75

5-75

4-75

1-74

2-74

5-74

4-74

1972 « 100

1-77

2-77

5-77

4-77

1-70

2-70

5-70

4-70

1-79

12 «4

1-75

4 -7 4

121*04
10*4

124*14

2-75

5 .2 1 5*9 v

5-75

7#*

4 .4

4-75

7*5

4*5

4 .0

1-74

4*7

5*0

5 .7

\

125*95
T .»

\

120*19
150*14

4 .2
4 .9

131*50

5*4
\ y * w /v

5-74

5 .4

4*1

5 .5

4 .5

4*0

4 .)

152*79
134*35
134*54

4-74

4*1

5 .5

5 .4

5*1

4*0

5*4

4*1

1—77

4*1

5 .4

5 .5

5.2

5 .0

5*4

4.0

4*0

2-77

4*5

5 .0

5 ««

5*4

5*5

4*1

4*4

4*0

4*1

4*2

4*2

4*2

r^ i

5 .7

5 .4

5.5

4*0

4.2

4*2

4*5

5*4

4*4

1-75

4*2

5 .5

5 .0

5 .4

5*4

4 .0

4.2

4*2

4 .5

5*0

4*4

*•* \

147*05

2-70

4*5

4 .2

4 .2

4 .1

4*1

4*4

4.0

7*0

7.2

7*0

7*0

0*5

150*02

4*9

7*0

7.2

0*0

4*7

4 .4

4 .4

4 .4

4*4

4*0

7.1

7*2

7 .4

7*0
•
7*5

7*4

4—70

7*0

0*2

0*0

7*9

0*7 N .

154*40

1 -ìt

4*0

4 .4

4 .4

4 .4

4 .4

7.1

7*5

7*4

7 .4

0*1

0*4

9*0

0*4

9*0

140*22

5-77
«

4 -7 7

150*54
140*43

7 .7 '

\

4*0

" 1

5-70

7*4

\

142*59
144*02

10*7 " \ 8 . 6 %
0*9

9*5

-f===X — — -

2 -W
5-74

4-7 4

1-75




2-75

5-75

4-75

1-74

2-74

5-74

4-74

1-77

2-77

5-77

4-77

i-T I

155*45

___
>

2 -T t

1 -7 «

4-75

1-79

IMH1AL «M ftT «

>Y W M M l fctSg*Vt SAMK OF ST» LOUIS
serrcM K* 19# » 7 »

14

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATCS OP CHANCE
9ILLIONS OP
TERMINAL

IN IT IA L QUARTER

3-74
4 -7 4

6*0

1-75

2-75

3-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

3-76

4-76

1-77

OOLLARS

3-77

2-7?

4-77

1-70

2-70

3-70

_______
. B IfW k IV U .
F H . U L.
4-70 1-79

3*2

1-75

4-74

916*2
0*0

V3*.7

2-75

0*3

10*9

13*1

~3-75

9*4

11*5

12.0

12.6

9*0

11*5

12*4

12.1

l i *6

12.6

960.V
994.0
1*021.6

1-76

10*4

11*0

12*5

12 #4

13 »2

'*1-76

10« 0

11*2 » l l . 6 ~ 11*3

10.0

10*5

~1P?6

10*0

11*0

U*4

4-76

10*2

11.2

11.5

11.2

11 «0

“ fT
T

10*6

11*4

1 1.«

ÏÏ.6

10.3

11.0

11*3

ll.l

2—77

1*053.8
----------

7*0

1 *C
73* 1
1 *10C.5

9*1

10*4

10*0

10*0

11*2

12*0

I M ïï* 4
To*9 10.7

10*9

12*0

12.9

13.0

10*2

10*9

11*1

10*6 ” ñ 5

1*190.5
1*220.6

“

'

1*132.0
1*169.1

3-77

10*3

11*0

11*2

11*0

10*0

10 «7

10*3

10*0

10*9

10*6

9*0

10*5

"♦ -n

ÍÓ .6

11.2

ÍÜ 4

11*3

ll.l

11*0

10*7

11*2 ~ ll* 4

ÍÍ* 3

10*5

12*0

1-7#

10^

11*0

11*2

11*0

10*9

10.0

10*5

10*9

11*0

10*0

10*1

11*0 T i *2

2—70

10*7

11*3

11*9

11.3

11.2

11*2

10*9

11*3

11*5

11*4

10*9

11*0

3-70

10*0 Í Í . 3 11.5 11*4 11*3 11*2 11*0 11*4 11*5 11*5 11*1 11*0 12*2 11*0 13*2 11*9
U.O 11*5 11*7 11*6 11*5 11*5 11*3 11*7 11*0 11*0 11*5 12*2 12*6 Ï2.4~*13*5 Í3.1 14*2
11*0 11*9 11*7 11*6 11*5 11*5 11*3 11*7 11*0 11*0 11*5 12*1 12*4 12*2 13*0 12*5 12*0 11*4
10*7 Ì1 .2 ifa T 11*2 11*1 11*1 10*9 11*2 11*3 11*2 10*9 11*3 11*5 11*1 11*6 IÒ .9 Ï0*5 0*7

4-70
1-79
2-79

1-7? *-7? M S

SrT*

Ir ik .

■ *
M

Mf

4—T6

1*259.7 ~

13*4

12*3

1-77 Z r J L . M I

1*207.2"

9.0T
11*7

4 rT Ï

1*331*2

14*4

1-7# M i

1*369*3

1*415.4
1*454*2
6*1

1*475*9

Î-TÎ Vrli i-ia

IN ITIA L QUARTER

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES M 1972 DOLLARS
COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE
TERMMAL

IN ITIA L QUARTER
3-74

4-74

1-75

2-75

3-75

4-74

-2*4
0*6

4*6

1*7

4*0

6*0

2*5

5*1

6*0

5*5
6*5

7*2

2-77

3-77

4-77

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-79

6*0

6*6

1-77

4-76

5*0

4-75

3-76

7*0

3-75

2-76

2*3

2-75

1-76

-7*0

1-75

4-75

OOLLARS

752.9
757.2
770.2
779.7
791.1

1-76

3*5

5*7

2—76

3*5

5.4

6*Ò~

5*0

6*0

6*0

3*6

3—76

3*7

5.3

5*0

5 .6

577

5*é‘

4*2

0*4

007.3
614.5
4*7

02470

4-76

3*9

5.4

5*0

5*7

5*6

5*7

4*1

5*4

6*2

1-77

4 .2

5*5

5*9

5*7

5*9

5*0

5*2

5*7

6*2

6*3

2-77

4*0

5*1

5*4

5*2

5*3

5*2

4*5

4*7

4*7

4*0

3-77

4*1

5*1

5*4

5*2

5*2

5*1

4*6

4*0

4*0

4*4

3*4

5*1

4—77

4*4~

5*4

5*7

5*5

5*6

5*5

5*1

5*4

5*5

5.3

5*0

6*6

036.4
049.2
1*0

053.1
063.7
880 .9

0*2

1-70

4 .Ï

5*0

5*2

5*1

5*1

5*0

4*6

4*7

4*7

4*4

~T.9~

4*7

4*4

0 .0 “

2-70

4*2

5*1

5*3

5*1

5*1

5*1

4*7

4*0

4*0

4*6

4*3

4*9

4*0

3*2

3-70

4*2

5*0

5*2

5*1

5*1

5*0

4*9

4*0

j * r ~~5*2*

4-70

4*4

5*1

5 .T ~

5*2

~*
52

1-79

4*2

4*9

5 .0

4 .9

4 .9

2-79

T .0

4*4

4*6

4 .4 “ 4 .4

4-74

1-7*

Irli.




002.7
094.0

5*6

4*7

4*0

4*0

4*6

4*4

4*9

5*0

5*0~

4.9

4*7

5*2

5*2

4*5 " 5*7

5*0

4*0

4*0

4*5

4*6

4*6

4*4

4*2

4*5

4*4

3*7

4*4

4*0

3*7

0*7

4 72

379

4 .0

3*9

3*7

3*4

3*6

3*4

2*6

2*9

2*3

1*4

-1*1

T T

hZL. 9-75... 1=26-.JtrZt. -fc» w *

M7

jan. _i=n_ 9-77

4* 0

1-71. .2-1*- Irli..

-2*9

905.3
920.Ï
921.8
915.0

4—70— 1-79

QUARTER

____

15

m c r f l* » ftjLgfePtñftl
SEPTEMBER 19* 1979

op S T ,. ¿ a u » .

COHFOUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE

3-74
4 -74

M U IO N S OF
OOLLARS
AftftlAL MTfcjL.

IN ITIA L QUARTER

TERMINAL

4-74

1-75

2-75

3-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

3-76

4-76

1-77

2-77

1-77

6-77

1-7

2-70

1-7

-0 .6

210*4

1-75

-2 0 .* -4 t * l

2-75

—21.8 —10.7

—5*5

177.7
1 7 5 .2

44.1

3-75

-1 .9

-2 .1

15.4

4-75

-2*6

-1 .1

20.1

15.4

-5 .5

1-76

7*1

8 .7

11.4

46.7

27.5

72.0

2-76

••2

♦ .7

28.0

10.1

23.2

40.7

15.2

1-76

••1

♦.1

24.2

11.2

14.0

20.4

11.0

4 .2 . 21.7

206T¿
203.9
23d .5
241.9
7.0

246.0

4-76

•♦0

27.0

16.6

21.0

♦.4

7 .4

7 .4

1-77

12.1

11.6

25*6

10.0

22.5

24.0

20.1

21.0

29.4

56.5

2-77

11.7

15.2

26.2

10.4

23.7

29.4

22.2

24.0

10.1

43a

31.0
22.6

250.7
260.4
300.0

3-77

14.4

15.4

25.0

24.4

23.6

20.4

22.1

21.7

20.1

36.0

26.8

4 -77

11.4

14.6

21.4

26.0

20.4

24.7

19.1

14.7

22.5

26.4

17.7

11.6

1.5

1-7®

11.4

14.5

22.5

25.5

20.1

21.4

10.1

10.0

20.9

23.7

16.6

12.2

7a

13.4

2-7#

14.7

15.4

21.4

26.2

21.4

24.5

20.1

20.7

22.0

25.5

20.0

17.4

15.7

23.6

34.7

315.7
316.9
327.0
352.3

3-78

14.0

15.1

22.0

24.4

14.4

22.5

10.4

10.0

20.3

22.2

17.3

14.7

12a

14.4

10.7

4 .5

4—78

14*2

15.2

21.6

23.4

14.7

22.0

10.1

10.6

20.0

2 ia

17.3

15.1

13.7

16.4

10.1

10.4

17.1

1 -T f

11.6

14.5

20.4

22 .4

10.4

20.5

17.0

17.1

10.2

19.4

15.5

13.4

11.4

14.1

14.3

0.2

10.1

3.6

2 -W

14.2

15.1

20.7

22.6

10.4

20.0

17.6

17.0

i t .a

20.0

16.5

14.0

13.7

15.4

16.4

12.2

14.4

13.4

25.2

1-74

4 -7 4

1-75

2-75

3-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

3-76

4-76

1-77

2-77

3-77

4-77

1-70

2-70

3-78

4-78

1-79

156.2
370.5
373.8
395.4

IN ITIA L QUARTER
MOSS PRIVATI DONI STIC IMVf STMffMT H 1472 DOLLARS
COHPOUNOiO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANO«

(>

1!

BILLIONS OF
OOLLARS

IN ITIA L QUARTER
1-74

4 -7 4

1-75

2-75

3-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

3-76

4-76

1-77

2-77

3-77

4-77

1-70

2-70

3-78

4-78

1-79

4-7 4

-U .f

170.6

1-75

-4 1 .9 -6 1 .1

134.6

2-75

-1 1 .1 -3 8 .9

-1 .0

3-75

-1 1 .0 -1 1 .0

10.4

76.0

153.7

4-75

-1 2 . • -1 2 .7

14.4

24.0 -1 1 .1

148.9

133.3

1-76

-2 .5

-0 .1

26.2

10.2

22.2

64.5

2-76

-8 .9

1.2

22.7

30.4

17.0

M a

4.5

1 -76

-♦ .7

1 .2

18.8

23.4

13.3

21.1

5.1

0 .4

4-76

-0 .2

1.5

16.4

20.2

11.3

10.0

4 .6

2.2

3.5

169.9
173.8
174.2
175.7

1-77

1 .2

5.1

14.1

22.0

15.6

22.0

12.4

13.4

20.2

34.7

2-77

4 .6

6 .5

14.1

22.4

16.1

21.6

11.6

14.0

19.9

24.1

19.3

1-77

5 .4

7 .2

10.7

21.5

14.0

20.6

14.0

14.4

10.7

24a

17.1

15.0

4 -7 7

4 .4

6 .0

16.1

10.3

133

16.0

10.7

10*4

11.0

15.5

0.5

3.4

191.0
199.6
206.7
203.0

-7 .0

1-71

4 .*

6 .4

15.0

17.0

13.1

16.1

10.9

11.1

12.9

14.4

9 .4

4.1

2a

12.4

2—78

5.6

7 .1

15.0

17.4

13.1

14 a

11.4

11.7

u a

15.0

10.7

0.6

6.6

14.1

15.0

3—78

4 .9

6 .2

14.2

15.7

11.7

14.1

4 .7

4 .7

10.0

11.4

7.9

5.7

3.5

7 .3

4.0

-5 .1

4—7 i

5 .0

6 .2

11.6

15.0

11.1

11.4

4 .4

4 .4

10.1

u a

7.7

5.4

4.1

7.1

5.4

0 .4

4 .5

1-7*

4 .7

5.0

12.7

13.4

10.4

12.1

0.5

0 .4

9.2

4.4

6.6

4.4

3.4

5.4

3.4

0.2

3 .0

2-7*

4 .9

6 .0

12.5

13.6

10.1

12.0

0.5

0.5

9.2

4.7

6.0

5.4

4.1

6.1

4.0

2.3

4 .0 " 4 . 0

8 .5

1-74

4 -7 4

1-75

2-75

3-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

1-76

4-76

1-77

2-77

3-77

6-77

1—70

2-78

4-78

1-76




209.0
216.8
214.0

3-78

217.4
-0 .4

217.2
221.7

IN ITIA L QUARTER

PREPARED 1Y M O itA L M tfK V I BANK OF S T . LOUIS

SEPTINBER 19» l f T f

16

ssN w rn m n purchases op m o o t awo services m current pollans
COMPOUNOEO M M M i RATES OP CHM M
TERMINAL

ftULUQN* OP
OQLLARS

I N IT IA L W M t m
4 -7 4

I “ 75

1 -7 5

4 -7 5

1-7 4

M 6

1 -7 4

4 -7 6

1-77

2 -7 7

J -7 7

4 -7 7

1 -79

2 -7 6

3 -7 «

4 -7 6

1 -7 9
517*3

1 -7 5

11*9

1 0 .9

2-75

11.5

10.6

10.7

5-75

11.1

10.5

10.5

9 .9

T i7 f 10.7

4-75

325a '

10.7

10.4

11.3

1-76

10.0

9 .4

9 .0

6 .4

7 .7

2-76

6.9

6 .2

7 .7

7 .0

6 .0

3*4

2 .7

3-76

T .y

7 .9

7 .4

6 .7

5 .9

4 .2

4 .2

357.5
5.6

362.4

4-76

8 .5

6 .0

7^

7.1

6 .5

5 .3

5 .7

7 .3

9 .0

1-77

6.6

6.3

0 .0

7 .6

7.2

6 .4

7 .0

6 .5

9 .9

10.9

2-77

9.1

6*6

6.5

6.2

6*0

7.5

6.1

9.5

10.9

n a

12.6

3-77

9 .1

6*6

6 .6

6 .4

6.2

7 .7

6 .4

9.5

10.5

11.0

11.1

9a

4-77

9 .4

9*1

9 .0

6.6

6 .7

6 .4

9a

10.1

11.0

11.5

11.7

11.1

12.9

1-70

9 .2

6*9

6.6

6 .6

6.5

6 .2

6.7

9a

10.2

10.5

10.4

9.6

9.7

10a

10a

9.4

9a

7 .7

6.6

3-76

9 .4

9*2

9 .0

6.9

6.6

oa

9 .0

9.6

10.3

10.5

10.4

10.0

10.1

9 .2

10.5

4-76

9.5

9 .3

9 .2

9*1

9.1

6 .9

9 .3

10.0

10.5

10.7

10.7

10.3

10.5

9 .9

11.1

12.3

12.2

1-79

9*3

9.1

9 .0

6*9

6.6

6.6

9 .0

9 .4

10.0

10.1

10.0

9.6

9.7

9 .1

9 .7

10.0

6 .9

2-76

370.3
360.0
391.6
400.5
412.6
419.4

4 .4

426*3
440.9

12.3

*53*6
5.7

460.1

2-79

446*6

1-7? 2-7? M ?

M*

V7*

1-74 2-7* M *

*-74 .1-77 2-?I .1-77 4-77 _L tM J r l l

l-li

..V-M 1-7?

IN ITIA L QUARTER

rvM m m w m w m
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OP CHANCE
IN ITIA L QUARTER

TERMINAL

3-74 4-74

1-75

2-75

3-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

3-76

OOLLARS

1-77 2-77

4-76

3-77

4-77

1-70

2-78

3-78

4-78

1-79
258a

4-74

-0*3

1-75

"0*6

1*6

2-75

1*6

2*6

3*6

-

” 259a
261.4
243*8

3-75

2*1

2*6

3*5

3*4

4-75

2*2

2*9

3*3

3*2

2*9
0*7 -1*5

1-76

1*4

2*0

2*1

1*6

2-76

1*0

1*2

1*1

0*5 -0*5

245*7

-2 .1

244.7
242*9

-2*7

3-76

0.6

1*0

0*9

0*3 -0*4

-1*5

-1*5

-0*3

4-76

0.7

0*6

0*7

0*3 -0*4

-1*2

-1*1

-0*2

-0*2

242.7

1-77

0.9

1*1

1*0

0*6

0*2

-0 .4

-0*1

0*0

1.4

2*9

2-77

1*3

1*4

1*4

1*1

0*6

0*5

0*9

1*6

2*5

3.8

242*4
244.5
4.6

247.4
4.1

3-77
4-77

1*5

1.7

1*7

1*5

1*3

1*1

1*0

0*6

1.5

2*2

2*7

1*1

1*7

2*0

3a

3.5

2.9

270.3
1.6

271.5
270.7

1*3

1*4

1.3

3-76

iV t

1*7

1*7

1-79

1.4

1*5

1.5

1.3

1*2

2-79

1*1

1*2

1.2

1.0

0*9

1.5

oa

-1 .2

ia

0.5

-o a

2.1

ia

1*4

3*0

5*1

274.7

2.1

1.7

1*7

2*6

3*5 " 1 .9

274.0

1*5

4-76

2.3
2.1
2.6

1*5

2.5
2a

1-76

1.5

1*4

271.3

1*5

2*0

2*2

2.5

2.5

1*0

1*2

1*6

ia

2a

1.9

1.5

1.1

0*9

1*5

1*7

0.0

-1 .9

0*7

0*9

1*2

1*3

1.5

1.3

0.9

oa

0*2

0*5

0*4 -1 .1

-2 .6

1.3

-IM P U M . Q m T B I

274.7

-3.3"

272.4 '

M L 4-T3L 1-Ift 2-7# 3-78 4 -M _ i - i a _

M * . *-T±_ 1-75 2-75 M 2_ V'TJ--J=EL 2-74 1-7* -_±rT4 1-T7 .




0*9

PREPARED OY PEOERAL RESERVE RANK OP ST* LOUIS

SCP7EN8ER 19# 1979

17

DISPOSABLE M&SONAL INCONg IN CUM PIT POLLM S
COMPOUNDED ANNUM. RATES OFCHANfcE
TERMINAL

IN ITIA L QUARTER

ttMRTE*

3 -7 4

4-74

4 -7 4

t —73

2 -7 5

3 -7 5

4 -7 5

1-74

2 -7 4

3-76

4 -7 4

1-77

2 -7 7

3 -7 7

4 -7 7

1-7$

2 -7 3

3 -7 3

4 -7 3

1-7 9

BILLIONS OF
OOLLARS
ANNUAL K i m

4.3

1»016.2

1 -7 5

5*2

3 .7

2-75

12.4

16.1

30.1

3-75

10.1

11.2

15.1

~~4—75

10.0

10. 8* " I S . 3*

I »025.4
1 .0 4 5 .1

1.9

1»100.3
------------

3.7

1»125.8
1*152.2

2-74

1»170.2

3—74

9 .2

9 .4

10.4

7.1

B.O

7.2

3.1

4-74

9 .4

9 .7

10.4

7 .4

3 .4

3.2

9 .2

1»143.1
10.3

1»222.4

1-77

9 .4

9.6

10.4

7 .9

3 .7

3.5

9.2

9.3

9.3

2-77

9 .4

9 .9

10.4

3 .4

9 .3

9.2

9 .9

10.5

10.4

3-7 7

10.9

11*1

12.0

12.1

1*250.1
12.0

1*234.0

9.3

10.1

10.7

B.B

9 .7

9 .7

10.3

4 -7 7

10.0

10.2

10.9

9 .1

10.0

10.0

10.4

11.1

11.3

12.0

12.0

12.0

I —73

10.0

10.2

10.3

9 .2

10.0

10.0

10.4

11.0

11.1

11.4

11.5

11.1

10.3

2-73

10.2

10.4

10.9

9 .5

10.3

10.3

10.3

11.2

11.4

11.3

11.3

11.7

11.5

12.7

3-73

10.2

10.5

11.0

9 .4

10.4

10.4

10.9

11.2

11.4

11.7

11.7

113

11.5

12.0

4-73

10.4

10.7

11.2

9 .9

10.4

10.7

11.2

11.5

11.7

12.0

12.0

123

12.0

12*4

12.5

13.7

1-79

10.4

10.3

11.3

10.1

10.3

10.9

11.3

11.7

113

12.1

12.2

12.2

12.2

12.7

12.7

13.4

13.0

10.7

11.0

11.3

113

11.4

11.4

11.5

11.5

11.7

11.4

11.5

10.3

2-79

1-7? 2-7? ?-7? * rl>

1*323.2
1*341.2
1*395.0
1*437.3
11.4

1*474.5
1*5243
1*572.2
1*401.7

7 .7

TI..1-7*.

1-7» 2-7» . Ir7* V
»7fr 1-77 2-77 1-77
IN ITIA L QUARTCR

DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCONi IN 1972 DOLLARS
CONFOUNOgO ANNUAL RATCS OF CHANCE

BILLIONS O*
OOLLARS

IN ITIA L QUARTER

TERMINAL
3-74

4-7 4

1-75

2—75

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74

3-76

4-76

1-77

2-77

3-77

4-77

1-78

2-78

3-78

4-78

1-79
835.1

4 -74

-3 .7

1-75

-3 .1

2-75

4 .9

9.4

23.1

3-75

2 .4

4 .5

3 .2

•
-4 .9

4-73

2 .7

4 .4

63

-0 .5

4 .0

829.8

-2 .5

874.1
843.1
871.7
883.1

1-76

3.1

4 .4

6 .4

1 .4

4 .7

53

2-74

3 .0

4 .2

5.5

1.4

33

3.7

2*1

3-76

2 .9

3 .9

5 .0

1.3

3.5

3.3

2.3

2 .4

4-7 4

3.1

4 .0

5 .0

2.2

3 .7

33

3.1

3.5

887.7
893.4
903.3

4 .5

908.0

1-77

3 .0

3.3

43

2 .2

3 .4

3.3

2.8

3.1

3.3

2.1

2-77

3 .3

4 .0

43

2 .7

33

33

3.3

33

4 .2

4.1

4.1

3-77

3 .4

4 .2

4.9

6 .3

4.6

4-7 7

3 .3

4 .5

3.1

3 .5

4 .4

4 .5

4 .4

4 .8

5.2

5.4

6.5

6.7

43

1-73

3 .7

4 .3

4 .9

3 .3

4 .2

4 .2

4.1

4 .4

4 .7

4 .7

5.4

5.1

43

2.0

2-73

3 .7

4 .3

4 .3

3 .4

4 .2

4 .2

4.1

4 .3

4 .4

4.4

5.1

43

43

3 .0

4 .0

3-73

3 .7

4 .3

4 .3

3 .5

4 .2

4 .2

4.1

4 .3

4 .3

4.3

4 .9

4.7

43

3 .4

4.1

921.5
934.3
9513
954.4
944.1
974.2

4.2
—

—

991.5

4-73

3 .9

4 .4

4 .9

3 .7

4 .4

43

4 .3

4 .5

4 .7

43

5.2

3.0

4.7

4 .2

4.9

5.3

1-79

3 .3

4 .2

4 .7

3 .6

4 .2

4 .2

4.1

4 .3

4 .5

4.5

4.3

43

4.2

3 .7

4.2

4.2

4 .2

2.8

2 .3 '' 0 . 3

2-TB

2-79

3.5

3.9

4 .3

3 .2

3.3

33

3.7

3.3

3.9

3.9

4.1

33

33

2 .9

3.0

3—74

4 -7 4

1-75

2-75

3-75

4-75

1-74

2 -7 »

3-74

4-74

1-77

2-77

3-77

4-77

1-78

_____




________________________ ___ __________ L * n m w m M ___________

3-78

2.1

4-73

994.4
-1 .4

993.0

1-1*

___

PREPARED BY FEQgRAL RESERVE BANK O f ST# IQ U IS -

SEPTEMBER 19» 1979

18

compounded annual r a te s of chance

T IM MAL

f M TIft H
tH

BILLIONS Of
OOLLAftS

IM ITI AL «M K TW
4

4 -H

1-75

2-75

5-75

4-75

1-74

2-74

9-74

4-76

1-77

annual k a t is

2-77

5-77

4-77

1-78

2-78

5-78

4-78

1-79
73.5

4-7 4

-52*2

1-75

—44*6 -5 8 .2

2-75

-24*0 —22.6

59.1
6 4 .6

42*8

5-75

—5*6

8 .4

74.6 115.6

4-75

«0 .7

9.5

50.5

54.5

11.8

1-76

8*1

18.6

54.0

57.9

55.8

78.1
80.3 ' ~
91.0

64.9

91.6

2-76

7*5

15.8

42.0

41.8

25.7

50.1

2.7

5-76

7 .1

14.5

55.2

55.7

19.0

21.5

4 .2

5.8

4-76

6*4

12.6

29.7

27.7

15.2

16.1

5.2

5.5

92.9
1.5

93.2
99.2

1-77

8*4

14.5

29.6

27.8

17a

18.4

9 .0

11.2

14.0

2-77

9*4

14.8

28.4

26.7

17.6

18.6

11.0

15.2

15.8

25.0

19.4

5-77

9 .8

14.7

26.9

25.2

17.2

18.0

11.5

15.4

15.4

20.5

16.8

14.2

4-77

9 .2

15.7

24.5

22.8

15.4

15.9

10.2

11.5

12.7

15.8

11.9

8.5

2*4

28.1

107.2
107.9
106.7

1-78

8.2

12.2

21.8

20.0

15.1

IS .5

8.5

9.1

9 .7

11.4

7.6

5.9

-0 .9

-4 .4

2-78

11.6

15.7

25.1

25.7

1*.7

18.4

14.1

15.6

17.1

19.9

18.5

18.0

194

28.7

75.2

5-78

11.4

15.1

25.8

22.4

16.8

17.5

15.4

14.7

15.8

18.0

16.4

15.8

16.2

21.2

56.4

122.4
124.4

7 .4

4-78

12.2

15.8

24.0

22.7

17.6

18.1

14.4

15.8

17.0

19.1

17.9

17.6

184

22.4

55.2 1

m

27.1

1-79

15.5

16.8

24.5

25.4

18.4

19.2

16.0

17.5

18.5

20.4

19.6

19.7

20.6

24.6

55.1

21.9

29.9

52.7

2-79

12.1

15.5

22.4

16.5

15.9

16.1

18.6

25.8

15.8

16.0

10.9

-7 . 4

5-74

4 -7 4

1-75

1-77

2-77

5-77

4-77

1-78

2-78

5*78

4-78

1-79

_____

2-75

« ..........................

5-75
...

.

4-75
. -

1-76

2-74

5-76

4-76

_______ » f tT IA L W M U ft

152.3
142.0

.................................... -, ...

159.3

......

>*»>>»■) »V H W M t > l « W i M i t M «»■ u « H

s v r m H i*, » N

SOURCES OP DATA
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA
Source:

1929-72:
1973!
1974!
1975:
1976-78:

U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis, Washington, D.C. 20230
The National Income and Product Accounts of the
United States, 1929-74, A Survey of Current Business
Supplement.
Survey of Current Business, July 1976.
Survey of Current Business, July 1977.
Survey of Current Business, July 1978.
Survey of Current Business, July 1979.

The Survey is available from most district offices
of the Department of Commerce or from the Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C.
20402.



19

.

INVENTORIES COMPARED W ITH MONTHLY S A L E S *

« R A T I O S BASED ON SEASONALLY AOJUSTEO O A T A .

SOURCE:

U . S . D E P A R T M E N T OF COMMERCE

SHADED AREAS R EP R ES E NT P E R I O D S OF B U S I N E S S R E C E S S I O N S .
L A T E S T D ATA P L O T T E D t




JULY P R E L IM IN A R Y

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS

20


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102