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n n T i o n m Economicr e i i d s
t
PREPARED B FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S . LOUIS
Y
T

MONTH ENDING: August 31, 1977

RELEASED: September 28, 1977

After the brisk pace of economic activity experienced in the
first half of 1977, many analysts expected some slowing in the rate of
expansion during the second half of the year. Economic data available
so far in the third quarter confirm these expectations. Nevertheless,
the economy has made significant strides since the "pause" of 1976.
Industrial production has increased at a strong 7.4 percent
annual rate since autumn of 1976. Since June, however, gains have been
at a 1.3 percent rate, compared to a 9 percent rate of growth in the
previous eight months.
Mirroring this pattern, personal income has
risen at a vigorous 11.4 percent rate since October 1976, with a 9.4
percent rate of increase in the most recent two months, and an 11.9
percent rate in the prior eight months.
While the trend rate of employment growth remains quite rapid,
gains in total civilian employment have slowed recently. From October
1976 to last June, employment expanded at a 5.1 percent rate, while growth
in the most recent two months has been limited to a 0.6 percent rate.
The unemployment rate, after posting substantial declines in the first
quarter of 1977, has oscillated around 7 percent since April*
Price increases have moderated somewhat since spring and early
summer, although the trend rate of inflation remains high. Wholesale
prices have shown little change since April. This is the result, in
part, of very sharp declines in wholesale prices for farm products and
processed foods and feeds, which have offset increases in prices of whole­
sale industrial commodities. In contrast, from October to April wholesale
prices (all commodities) registered a 10 percent rate of increase, primarily
because severe weather conditions contributed to very large increases in
wholesale food prices early in the year. The consumer price index has
also risen more slowly since June, advancing at a 4.4 percent rate, compared
to a 7.8 percent rate in the previous eight months.
Over the course of the current business expansion the housing sector
has made a strong recovery from the sharp declines experienced during the
1973-75 recession.
Data for August 1977 indicate that after two and one-half
years of expansion housing starts have risen to rates equalling 81 percent
of their 1973 peak. Very sizable gains have been centered in the construction
of single-family units, which have exceeded their 1973 peak in three of the
last four months. In contrast, multi-family starts in August 1977 equalled
only 52 percent of their 1973 peak. The relative sluggishness in multi-family
starts suggests prior overbuilding in such units and a changed demand and
supply situation which favors single-family relative to multi-family units.*
*

See Neil A. Stevens, "Housing: A Cyclical Industry on the Upswing,"
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Review (August 1976), pp. 15-20.




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SfcPTfcNOC* 2« 1977

2

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EMPLOYMENT
RATIO

SCALE

M I L L IONS

1969

OF

RATIO
PERSONS

1970

SEA SO N A LLY

1971

1972

M I L L IONS

A D JU S T E D

1973

1974

1975

1976

OF

SCALE

PERSONS

1977

SOURCCt U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIOOS

INDICATED.

LATEST DATA PLOTTEOt AUGUST PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO UIS

UNEMPLOYMENT
PERCENT

RATE

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

PERCENT

9.

8.

\ 0

6.

5.

4.

3.

2.
SOURCEt U .S .

DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

PERCENT OF C IV IL IA N LABOR FORCE
LATEST DATA PLOTTED« AUGUST

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

3

CONSUMER PR IC E INOEX* SEASONALLY AOJUSTEO
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OP C H A N G E ___
TERMINAL_____________________________________IN IT IA L MONTH
maaitJ
*-MONTH
2-7© 3-7© 4-7© 5—
76 6-7© 7-7© 0-7©

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163.2

IN IT IA L MONTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
SEPTEMBER 21» 1977
WHOLESALE PRICES - ALL CUMM0D1T1 fc:>t SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
_______________COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE____________________________

&
1
o

TERMINAL_________________ ________________________________________________ IN IT IA L K O N T H ____________ ___________________________________ _______ ________ 1967 » 100
MONTH
11-76 12-76
5-77 6-77 7 -7 7
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195.2
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IN IT IA L NONTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS
SfcPT6HbfcR i t 1977

4




R A T IO

PRI CES

S C A LE

R A T IO

SC ALE

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIOOS I H 1CATEO.
O
LATEST OATA PLOTTED« AUGUST
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

WHOLESALE PRI CES

R A T I O S CA L E
1967-100

R A T I O S CA L E
1967-100

SEASO NALLY AD JUSTED

FARM PRODUCTS
AND PROCESSEO
FOODS AND FEEDS

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

19 77

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS I N ICATED.
O
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt AUGUST

is

5

WHOLESALE P R IC E S - IN D U S T R IA L COMMODITIES* SEASONALLY ADJUSTEO
______________
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
______
— Jt W U M A ,
MONTH
—

IN IT IA L MONTH
*-76

,i L~Zo

5-76

6-76

7-76

8-74

1967 * 100

9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76

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6*7

6*4

5*3

4*1

3*1

7-77

6*3

6 .8

7*1

7*1

7*1

7*1

6 .9

6*4

6*2

6*6

6*7

6 *4

5 .6

4 .9

4 .7

4 .4

•-77

6*3

6*5

6 .6

6 .8

7.1

7*1

7*1

7 .0

6 .8

6*4

6 .2

6*5

6 .6

6 .4

5 .7

5 .2

5*3

6 .3

6 .3

1-76

2-16

3-76

4-76

5-76

6—
76

7-76

8-76

9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76

1-77

2-77

3-77

4-77

5-77

6-77

7-77

5-77

6-77

7-77

193.7
194.2
1V5.2
1V6.2

IN IT IA L MONTH
WHOLESALE P R IC E S —
FARM PRODUCTS AND PROCESSE0 FOODS AND FEEDS 7
COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE

se

ASi * A D J<

IN IT IA L MONTH

TERMINAL
MONTH
1-76

2-76

3-76

4-76

5-76

6—
76

7-76

8-76

1967 * 100

9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76

1-77

2-77

3-77

4-77

181*6

2-74

- 1 6 .6

3-76

-10*0

- 2 .6

6—
76

2-2

13.2

3 1 .4

5-14

3*1

10. a

1 8 .1

4-74

3 .«

9 .2

1 3 .4

5 .3

4 .6

1-74

1 .5

5 .6

7 .8

0 .9

- 1 .6

•—
74

- 3 .4

- 1 .2

- 0 .9

- 7 .7 -1 1 .9 -1 9 .1 —
29*3

181*2
185*4
186*3

6 .0
187*0
-7 *4

185*8
180*5
181*1

9-74

- 2 .7

~ 0 .5

- 0 .1

- 5 .5

- 8 .1 -12*0 -14*2

4 .1

14-74

- 3 .1

- 1 .2

- 1 .0

— .6
5

- 7 .8 - 1 0 .7 -11*7

- 1 .3

— .4
6

11-14

- 2 .6

-1 .1

- 0 .9

- 4 .9

- 6 .5

- 0 .9

-3*3

12-14

- 0 .2

X *0

2 .1

- 1 .1

1-77

0 .1

1 .1

2 .2

- 0 .4

2—
H

1 .9

1 .6

4*2

1*8

M

180*1
180*1

0*0

-8 *6

-6*9

- 2 .1

- 3 .2

- 2 .3

5 .9

6*6

13*7

2 9 .3

- 1 .4

- 2 .3

— .4
1

5 .4

5*7

10*1

15 .6

3 .3

1*4

1*0

2*2

8 .7

9 .7

14.1

19 . *

14.5

26*9

184.0
184.5
188*2

1 .4

i.4

4 .1

4 .0

3 .8

3 .7

5*2

1 1 .4

12*6

16 .9

21*5

19*1

27*8

28*7

4-77

5-7

1 .4

8 .4

4 .4

6 .7

6 .9

8 .6

14.6

16.2

20*5

25*1

2 4 .0

31*8

34*4

40*3

»-1»

*•4

1 .2

8 .0

4«4

6 .4

6 .6

8*1

13.3

14*5

17.8

21*1

19.5

24*0

23*0

20*3

l

4-41

2 .5

l* t

4 .3

2 .4

2 .3

2 .1

3 .1

1*0

7*4

9 .2

10*6

7 .8

8*7

4*5

7-n

0-9

2 .1

2 .4

0 .7

0 .3

0 *0

0 .6

3 .9

3*9

5*1

5 .8

2*8

2 .7

-1*5

•-77

- 0 .4

0 .»

0 .7

- 0 .9

-1*4

— .8
1

-1*3

1 .4

1*2

2*0

2 .2

-0*7

1-14

2-14

3-74

4-74

5-76

6—
76

1-14

8-76

9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76




192.2
197*7
198*2

3*1

-2*5 -18*7 - 3 5 .9

191*0

-7 *9 - 2 0 .0 - 2 9 .5 -2 2 .4

187*0

-1*3

-5*3 -11.0 -20*6 - 2 7 .2 -2 2 .4 -2 2 .3

183*1

1-77

2-77

3-77

4-77

5-77

6-77

7-77

IN IT IA L MONTH

PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS
SEPTEMBER I» 1977

6

INDUSTRIAL

PRODUCTION*

RATI O SCALE

RATIO SCALE
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1967-100

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1967-100

1975

1976

1977

* 1 0 7 0 - 7 7 REV U E O
PERCENTAOES ARC ANNUAL RATES Of CHANtC FOR PERI08S INOICATC».
LATEST OATA PLOTTED. AÜOUST PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

INDUSTRIAL PRUOUCTION *
CuHPUUNOtL) ANNUAL RAtfcS OF CHAN^b
TERMINAL

“
¿-76

¿—
76

‘

IN IT IA L HÜNTri
• 76
*—

5—
76

6-"T6

T-76

8—
Tô” * - t6 10-76 Î l - t 6

1967 « 10Ò
ü - ?6

i- T T

"2 - T T

3^77

4 - t?

—
¿ 2 ? .6

2-76

17.5

3-7«

1 2 .G

4-7«

9 .2

5-76

9 .4

6 .7

6. 7

6—
7o

7 .6

5 .3

4. 6

5 .2

0 .9

7-76

7 .8

5. V

5 .7

6 .4

4 .t

8 .6

5 .7

6 .2 - 5 .0

t.l

8-76

7.λ

128.3

6.Ò

128.7

5 .9

129.7

9 .7

129.8
130.7
1 *1 .3

5 .7

130.6

9-7«

5 .7

1

3 .6

3 .6

2 .1

2 .5

-0.i>

— .2
6

10-7«

4 .6

3 .1

¿ .6

2 .3

0 .9

0 .9

- 1 .5

- 4 .9

- 3 .6

11-76

5 .4

4 .1

i.tt

3.8

2 .8

3 .2

1 .8

0 .6

4 .2

1 2 .7

12-76

6 .2

5 .1

4 .9

î>.i

4 .4

5 .0

4 .3

3 .9

7 .6

13.6

1 4.6

1-77

5 .1

4 .0

3 .8

¿.7

3 .0

3 .3

2 .5

1.8

4 .0

6. «

3.7

2-77

5 .3

4 .4

4 .2

4 .2

3 .6

4 .0

3 .3

2 .9

4 .8

7 .1

5.3

130*2
131.5
133.0
132.3

•6# 1

0 .9 ;

8 .1

133.2

à—
77

6 .4

5 .6

5 .5

5 .6

5.2

5 .7

5 .3

5 .3

7.3

9 .7

8 .9

7 .1

1 4 .*

20.6

4-77

6 .4

5 .7

5 .6

5 .7

5 .4

5 .9

5 .5

5 .5

7 .3

9 .3

8 .6

7 .2

12.0

13.8

7 .3

5-77

6 .!>

5 .9

5 .8

5 .9

5 .6

6 .1

5 .8

5.8

7 .4

9 .1

8 .5

t.4

il.O

1 1 .9

7 .8

8 .2

6-77

6 .6

6 .0

5 .9

6 .1

5 .8

6 .2

6 .0

6 .1

7.i>

9 .0

8 .5

7 .5

10.5

1 1.0

7 .9

8 .2

7-77

6 .8

6 .4

6 .1

6 .3

6 .0

6 .5

6 .3

t.t

4.0

8 .6

7 .?

10.2

10.6

8 .2

8*5

8 .6

9.1

ë -*7

6 .1

£ .5

5 .4

5 .5

£ .2

5 .5

5 .3

Ì.3

6 .4

7. 4

ô«9

7.8

> .6

5 .2

4 .7

3 .5

1.3

- 5 .9

1-76

2-76

3-76

4-76

5-76

6-76

7-76

8-76

1-77

2-77

3-77

4-77

5-77

6-77

7-77

9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76

135.3
136.1
137.0
13 7.9

8 .2

138.9F
138.2F

IN IT IA L MONTH
P - PRELIM INA RY
*

REVISED 1976-1977




PRfcPAREO ttV FfcOERAL RtSfcRVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
SfcPTÉHBèR 19, W ? )

7

PERSONAL
R A T I O SCALE

1969

INCOME
RAT I O SCALE

MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES

1970

197 ?

1972

1973

1974

1975

SOURCEt
PERCEN TAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR P E R IO O S
LA T E ST DATA PLOTTED*

U .S .

1976

1977

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

IMO ICATED .

AUGUST P R E L IM IN A R Y
PREPAREO BY FEO ERAL R E SE R V E BANK OF S T .

L O U IS

_________________ P trKM JlM A l 1 N uO M t_____________

t>DrtPUUNUtü ANNUAL rvAltS UF CHANfet
TERMINAL

b l L L l UNS Of
~ DOLLARS

IN IT IA L MUNTn
l-7 o

a —7o

4-7o

*-7o

5—
7o

o—
7o

7-7o

© 7o
—

9—?o iG-7e ll- 7 o 4 2-7o

1-77

2-77

4-77

4-77

5-77

6-77

7-77
»44b. 4

¿«?6

ü .*

4-7o

10.1

4-7o

1 0 .c

9 .6

1 0 .*

5-7o

9*o

0 .9

9 .C

7 .7

6-76

8 .5

7 .0

/.*•

o.O

i ,340 ...

b.b

1*459.5
1

7-7*

9.1

b* 7

0 .7

b .4

12.5

b-7o

b .b

b.*

0 .4

1.7

7.0

9 .5

0 .7

9-76

d*o

0.4:

c l

7.0

7.0

b.b

0 .9

7.^

1©—
7o

b .9

b .c

fc .5

O.l

0.4

9 .4

b .*

9 .*

11.1

4 *4bo.2
ï*394 r r

1**01.o
♦* 1* .2

l

11-76

9 .6

9 .*

9 .5

9 .à

^ .6

1Ò.7

1Ô.4

1 1 .i

14.7

40.4

12-76

10.<:

10.1

10.2

lO .c

10.5

11.0

11.4

12.7

I 4 .5
*

lo. 4

io . 4

1-77

9 .0

9 .*

9 .5

9 .*

9 .6

Ì0 .4

10.1

1 0 .o

11.7

11.0

9.7

l **42TT
r* * 5 o .2
4 .*

1 **5 *.3

2-77

1 0 .*

1 0 .3

10. 5

10.5

4,0.6

l i .6

11.5

14.3

i4 .*

1 4 .V

14.1

11.0*~~20.*

1-77

11.0

1 1 .0

1 1 .2

41.4

11 .6

12.5

H .5

Ì4.4

1 * .*

15.0

14.7

¿4.2

To Ve

*4'97ÎT

6—
77

10*9

10 .9

1 1 .0

ll.A

11*4

iic .l

l* .i

12.b

14.0

1*.W

14.0

i^ .9

10 . 4

14.2

10*6

10.5

1 0 .7

A0.7

10.9

11.5

11.5

12.0

12.0

1£ « i
. >

1 2 .;

ÏÏ71

6-77

10.3

10.4

1 0 .3

10.4

10.5

11.0

10.9

11.4

11.0

11.9

ll.J

ïü. à

“7=7Y
”

1 0 .*

1 0.4

io.*

À0.4

10.6

11.1

11.0

4 1.4

1 1 .V

12.0

1 1 .*

4 Û .Î

7-^1

16.2

iO.l

10. ^

1

Ö. 2

4Û.4

iÒ .b T G . T '

li.6

AI.*»

11. 4

1Ò.9

1-76

¿- 7 6

i- / o

4 — ¡¡fo

> -/o

0 —7 6

b—7o

9 —7 o

~ T - n

*4o7.y

7 * 4 7 2 .7

* .3

7-76

10-70

11-76

l i * 77.0

14.0 T I T * "

r ,* 9 9 .x
9 .2

« *>10.1

7.5

5 .9

9 .9

0 .9

5.8

* 5vr

12.0

1 0 .4

b.2

7.9

9 .0

12.4

10.2 “ “ 11.2

$ .7

>.9

7 .6

8 .1

9 .4

6 .4

2-77

4-77

4-77

5-77

6-77

7-77

i2 - 7 o

_ ___
_ __

1-77

17517.1
r*t2*V4~
4 *5 3 V .i
4 * 5 * 7 .2 P

IN IT IA L NUNIn
P- PRtLlH lN A KV




PKfePARtD bV FtOfcRAL RtStKVfc PAN* OF S I ,
StPTEHbEM 19* 1977

8

LOUIS

RET AI L SALES
R A T I O SCALE
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

969

1970

R A T I O SCALE
B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

SEASO NALLY ADJUSTED

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

SOIMtCCs
PCRCC n TAOC* ARC A M W Al RATCS Of CHAM6C fOR fCRIOtS INOICAT£0.

1976

1977

K f A A T M C N T Of CNMtftCC

LATCSÎ OAfA H O T T C O t JULY, A M d S T AOVANCC CSTIMATC
PRCFARCO 6Y fCOCRAl RCSCRVC SAUK Of ST. LOUIS

ft it ili I4I1&
CO UNO ANNUâL M HS OF C A G
NPO tO
HNE
M ILLIO N S OF

INITIAL M
ONTH

U M lN A l
1 -1 *

¿ —Ito

i- 7 4

4 -7 *

5 -1 *

* - 7*

1 —lto

r* -? 4

9 - 7 * 1 0 - 7 * 1 1 -7 4 1 2 - 7 *

1 -7 7

2 -7 7

3 -7 7

4 -7 7

5 -7 7

* -7 7

7 -7 7
^ ¿ to O l

¿- 1 *

*►3*444

3 -7 *

4.4.

1 0 .4

W 4

17*i

1 3 .2

W 4

/* 4

2*0

it —Ito

1 1* 5

••1

7 -7 4

o«o

5 .3

2 .4

0 .4

1 0 .5

- 5 .0

» - Ito

10*4

7 .$

5 .9

5 .4

1 4 .1

7 .6

9 -7 *

•«2
^ *04«

- 5 .2 - 1 7 .0
2 0 .5

¿• 9

1 .*

7 .9

*•2

4 .5

• .2

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9*1

" 7 .6

* .*

*♦1

10 .5

U -? 4

1»«%

1 2*2

11*5

1 2 .0

1 4 .9

7 .5

7.%

1 0 .9

1 -7 7

9 .*

••*

11*7

1 0«*

1 0 .1

i4 » W i

0 .9

7 « * “ ~ 4 .9

4 0 -7 6

2 -7 7

t>4*754
2 1 .0

liU

6 .7

-0 .1

7 .2 ~ 10. T

7J0

"54 » T oo”

3 . 9 —1 1 . 3

» .7

1 5 .0

1 9 .5

• .7

1 1 .1

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W

S

1 4 .0

>4*0 3«*

1 2 .5
lY .%

2 2 .7

3 1 .2

4 1 .*

" 57 »*4*~

4 3 .5

9 .1

1 4 .9

1 5 .7

1 9 .0

2 0 .7

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5 * t* 4 0

1 2 .3 —2 2 .«

1 3 .3

2 .9 ~ 3 7 .3

ï

»It T "

5 9 *5 2 2 ”

H7

U*0

12*1

11 . *

11 . 9 " Ì 5 a

1 3 .9

¿ * .5

1 5 .0

21«ô

2 2 .0

2 2 .9

4 -7 7

1 2 .0

11*1

1 0 .5

1 0 .7

1 2 .»

1 4 .4

1 3 .5

1 7 .*

II.»

1 7 .*

••3

1 4 .1

-1 .1

5 -7 7

10«!

1 0 .5

U 4

1 1 .2

1 4 .4

1 4 .?

1 3 .4

5 .4

Ü 4 .0 ~ 7 .1

—3 . 4

- 5 .4

59 *1*1

* -7 7

« •1

•»1

••3

1 0 .7

10*5

• ’. •

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1 .1

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5 0 * 39 0

••>

7.0

7 .7

3.1

OU

3.3

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9*1

••5

4.4

5.3~ 10.0

4.1

~ ~ o .V l i S "
7.%

" ¿

r

0 .7

•«*

9*4

0*4

IM

10.4

9.2

9.3

10.5

9.4

!!• •

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10.4

1 1 .7 ~~34.4~~ 3 Ï« 4 ’
2 1 .3

l

:

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: •
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7 -7 7

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•-77

I-* *

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* -7 *

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5 9* 4 4 5

4 > ff

>>- r t H m i i i É t ï
k - ESTIN ATTO




9

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11.4

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5.1
>»11

5«»927F

14.7 22.1

59#915t

* -7 7

M

l

HOURLY COMPENSATION' PRIVA TE B U SIN ESS SECTOR
CONPOUNUfcU ANNUAL RATES O f CHANGE_________
TM U t y N A L _____________________________________________________________ I N I T IA L QUARTER________________________________________________________________ 1967 « 100
# -*?

4 -7 2

1 -7 3

2 -7 3

3 -7 3

4-7 3

1-7 4

2-7 4

3-7 4

4 -7 4

1-75

2-75

3-75

4 -7 5

1-76

2-7 6

4 -7 6

3-76

1-77

6*0

¿ z n

141.6

l- T J

10*9

1 3 .9

2 -7 1

9 .0

9 *5

5 .3

H

146.5
148.4

I

6 .5

8 .6

6 .1

6 .9

V -73

6*5

6 .7

7 .0

7 .6

6 .8

1 -7 *

• •4

6 .5

7*2

7*6

tt.2

1 ^V
7 .7 s

2 -7 *

9 *0

9 .4

6 .3

9 .0

9 .7

10.2

1 2 .>

J -7 4

9 **

9 *6

6 .9

1 0 .4

11 .0

4 -7 4

9 .6

9 . to

9 .2

9 .9

10 .5

1 0 .9

15C.9
154.1
157.0
!L 3 %

161.8

12 .6

1 2 .* \

166.6

12*0

11 .0

v

1 0 .7 \

170.9

9 .1

9 .Z

t.to

V .l

9 .4

9 .5

12.0 11 .9 1 3 . 0 ^
11.1 10.6 10.0 9 .7
10.0 9 .4 o .7 6.0
b .o
9 .7
9*2
6.1

0 .5

6 .5

b .2

1,-7*

9 ,6

9 .5

9 .1

9 .5

9 .6

V .9

10 .2

9 .8

9 .3

9 .1

6 .1

b .7

1 0 .7

1 3 .2

2-76

9 .3

9 .4

V .l

V .*

9 .0

V .7

9 .9

9 .0

9 .4

6 .9

8 .1

8 .5

9 .8

1 0 .7

3-7 6

9 .4

9 .4

9 .1

V .*

V .O

9 .7

9 .9

9 .5

9 .2

9 .0

8 .3

8 .7

9 .7

10.2

4-76

9 .3

9 .3

V .O

9 .4

9 .5

9 .6

9 .7

9 .*

9 .1

8 .9

8 .3

8 .6

9 .4

9 .7

8 .6

8 .8

8 .5

1-77

9^4

9 .5

9 .C

9 .5

9 .7

9 .7

9 .9

9 .0

9 .*

9 .2

6 .6

9 .1

9 .6

10.1

9 .4

9 .8

10.1

11.7

20 8.4

2-77

9 .2

9 .3

9 .0

9 .*

9 .5

9 .6

9 .4

9 .1

«♦ 9

8 .5

8 .7

9 .3

9 .5

8*8

8*9

6 .8

9 .0

2 1 1 .6

>-72

4-7 2

1-7 3

3-7 3

4 -7 3

1-74

2 -7 *

3 -7 *

*-7 *

1-75

2-75

4—
75

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P l f f A l l l l BY H tQ flA L l l k l t t
SEPTEMBER 19 , 1977

12

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DEMAND

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PRODUCTION

R A T I O SCAL E
QUARTERLY TOTALS
T R I L L I O N S OF DOL L ARS
seasonally

AT ANNUAL RA TE S
ADJ UST ED

TRILLIONS

R A T I O S CAL E
OF DOL L ARS
0

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1

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1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
Ü.6NP IN CURRENT DOLLARS.
I2GNP IN 1972 DOLLARS.
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6E FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED: 2ND QUARTER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS




13

GENERAL P R I C E

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1 .*

1*7

1 .7

0 .8

- 0 .7

- 2 .2

26 **8
2 6 5 .*
263*9

2-76

1 .3

1 .2

1 .1

1 .7

1 .8

1 .9

1 **

1 .3

1.3

1*6

1 .5

0 .8

- 0 .2

-0 .0

0 .0

3-76

1 .2

1 .2

1 .0

1 .6

1 .7

1 .0

1 .3

1.2

1.2

!• *

1*3

0 .7

- 0 .1

-0 .*

0 .5

0 .3

4-76

1 .2

1 .1

l. C

1 .5

1 .5

1 *6

1 .2

1*1

1 .0

1*2

1 .1

0 .6

-0 .1

- 0 .3

0 .*

0 .2

0 .0

1-77

1 .0

0 .9

0 .8

1 .3

1 .3

1 .*

0 .9

O.tt

0.7

0.9

0.7

0.2

-0 .*

-0 .6

-0 .2

-0 .6

—
1.0

-2 .0

2-77

1.5

1 .*

1.3

1.8

1.9

2.0

1.6

1.6

1#6

1.8

1.0

1.5

1.1

1.2

1.8

2.1

2.7

*.1

3-72

*—72

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-7*

2-74

4-74

1-75

2-75

3-75

4—
75

1 -7 6

2-76




1-T3

3-74

2 6 * .*
2 6 4 .6

3—76

2 6 4 .6

*-76

263.3
10.6

270*0

1 -7 7

i n i ti a l u u a k teit

T KEPAKED I T FEDERAL RESERVE BANK UF S I .
AU6UST 19« 1977

17

LO UIS

d is p o s a b l e

perso n al

in c o m e

in

c u rren t

d o llars

CONPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
T ER H IN A L__________________________________________________________________ IN IT IA L QUARTER
QUARTER
7* * - 7 *
1-75
3-72 4-72
1-73 2-73 3-73 4-73 1-7* 2-74 3—
2-75
*-7 2

15*5
14*2

1 3 .3

4-75

1-76

2-76

3-76

4-76

B IL L IO N S OF
DOLLARS
"ANNUAL "RATES
1-77

1 4 .9

2—
73

3-75

______

16*2

1-73

___

647.C
606 .O
1 1 .7

6 *0 .9

3-75

13*0 12.0 10.6
9 .5
12*8 12.0 11.1 10.8 12.1
11* » 10.6 9 .6 8 .9 8 .5
1 1 .4
10.6 9 .7 9 .2 9 .1
11 *4 1 0 .7
10.0 9 .7 9 .7
10.8 10.2 9 .5 9 .2 9 .1
10.1 V .4 6.8 6 .4 8.2
1 1 .7
11.2 10.® 10 .7 1 0 .9
10.8 1 0 .3 9 .8 9 .6 9 .6

4-75

1 0 .B

1 0 .3

9 .9

9 .7

9 .6

9 .5

1-7«»

10.6

1 0 .4

10.0

9 .6

9 .9

9 .6

2-76

1 0 .5

10.2

9 .6

9 .0

9 .6

9 .*

3-7©

1 0 .3

9 .9

9 .6

9 .*

9 .*

9 .2

4-76

1 0 .3

9 .9

9 .0

9 .5

9 .5

9 .2

1-77

1 0 .3

9 .9

9 .6

9 .5

9 .5

9 .*

9 .7

9 .6

9 .*

2-77

10. * 10.1

9 .9

9 .7

9 .8

9 .0

10.0

9 .9

9 .8

T—
74" 2-T4

3-74

3-73
4-73
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
1-75
2-75

3-72

4-72

1-73 ■2-73

9 1 1 .*
937.7
5 .1

v*v.t>

7 .7

10.3

6 .9

10.9

11.4

8 .4

9 .5

9.1

6.8

7 .4

6.0

7 .2

5 .2

10.7
9 .3

3-73 "4^73

V73.1
999.7

1«016. 2
3 .7

I *025 •*

11.9
12.2 12 .5 15 .5 2 8 .7
10.0 10.0 9 .6 10.6 1*.2
10.1 10.1 9 .8 10.6 1 3 .0
10.2 10.2 10.0 1 0 .7 12.5
9 .8
9 .6
9 .9
10.1 1 1 .4
9 .5
9 .6
9 .3
9 .6
10.6
9 .4
9 .7
10.6
9 .6
9 .0

I *092.2

5 .9
7 .5

4-74

1*12*.1

10.8
10. t 10.8

1*153.4

7 .5

9 .7

9 .1

8 .9

8 .3

7 .1

1 *1 7*.1

7 .4

7 .3
7 .8

8.1
10.1 10.8 8.8
9 .7

i *0V5.7

1 .3

1 0 .5

1-75.. "2—
75

9 .3

8.8 8.1
9 .0
8.6

9 .9

9 .8

9 .5

3-75

«-75"

1=76

9 .2

1*193.3

6 .7

1*222.6

10.2
10.2 10.1
9 .0
10.1 11.2 11.8

1 3 .4

2 - 7 6 " 3-76

1-77

8 .4

4-76

1*252.#
1*29<:.5

IN IT IA L QUARTER
D ISPO SABLE PERSONAL INCONE IN CONSTANT 1972 DOLLARS
COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE

3-72

3-73

12.2
10.6
8.2
6.8

4-73

5 .8

4-72
1-73
2-73

*-7 2

3 .1

4 .2

2 .7

1 .9
1 .3

3-75
4-75
1-76
2-76
3-76
4-76
1-77
2-77

4-73

1.1
1 .7
0. »
1.2 0.1
2.1
3 .0
2.2 1 .4
2 .4

5 -7 2

2-74

3-74

4—74

1-75

2-75

3-75

*-75

i—
7o

2-76

3-76

*-76

1-77

6 52.7

0.2

2.6
2.2 1.8

658.2
662.1

- * .7

- 7 .0

- 1 .1

- 2 .3

- 4 .4

- 1 .7

- 0 .2

- 0 .9

- 1 .8

- 2 .9

- 0 .9

- 0 .0

- 0 .7

- 1 .4

- 2 .2

— .1
3

- 1 .8

- 1 .9

- 3 .7

- 1 .0

- 1 .6

- 2 .3

- 3 .1

- 2 .1

- 2 .3

- 3 .3

1 .4

1.1

0 .9

0 .7

0 .7

1 .7

4 -7 2




6 *0 .7

- 0 .9

- 0 .2

0 .3
0.1 -0 .2
1.1 0.8 0.6 0 .5
2*0 1 .4 1.2 1.1 1.0
2 .7
2.0 1 .5 1 .4 1.2 1.2
2 .7
2.6 2.0 1 .5 1. * 1.2 1.2
2 .7
2*2 1*7 1.6 1 .5 1 .5
2.8 2*2 1.6 1 .7 1.6 1.6
2 .5
2*1 2.0 2.0 2.0
3 .0
2 .5

1—
74

3 .6

5 .0

3 .5

2-75

3-73

6 *5 .1

6 .3

2.6

1-75

2-73

9 .0

1-14

4-74

1-73

827.1

2-74
3 -7 *

B IL L IO N S Or
OOLLARS
ANNUAL KATfcS

IN IT IA L QUARTER

TERMINAL
QUARTER

1 -7 3

2 -7 3

3 -7 3

*-TJ

2 .3

6 *3 .1

3 .3

8 *3 .0

4 .5

1.0 1.5 1 .9
1.6 2.1 2.6
2.0 2.6 3 .0
2.1 2.6 3 .0
2.0 2 .5 2.8

835.1
626.6

- 3 .0

8.8 22.0

871.1
659.1

3 .9

7 .4

- 5 .4

4 .2

6 .7

- 0 .2

4 .4

6 .4

1.6

5 .3

S .3

4 .2

5 .7

1 .9

4 .5

4 .1

2 .9

871.2

5 .3

881.5
887.8

3 .8

4 .9

1.8

3 .7

3 .2

2.1

1 .3

3 .9

4 .9

2 .3

3 .9

3 .6

3 .0

3 .1

4 .9

890 .7
901 .5

2 .3

2 .7

3 .0

2 .4

2 .7

3 .0

3 .8

4 .7

2 .4

3 .8

3 .5

3 .1

3 .1

4 .0

3 .1

2 .7

3 .1

3 .4

4 .2

5 .0

3 .0

4 .3

4 .1

3 .9

4 .1

5 .1

5.2

7 .3

1 -7 4

2-74

3-74

4-74

1-75

2-75

3-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

J -7 6

4 -7 6

1-7 7

9 0 8 .*
9 2 *.5

I N I T IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FLUE HAL RESERVE BANK UF S I » LOUIS'
AUGUST 19* 1977

18

ftü tm
UttAftffc*
T = ir

T =

fT

l- ii

¿-7 » T = J T “ W

i

1 -H

I n i t i a i guM tfén
A M ttH L l A T k i
” 2-1* ■ * = i r T T T “ F I T “ T = f T
“

"^ ttU S o T

4=n

l- f5

i-u

2-T4

*—
74 4 -K

1-TT

46«*
*4«*

44«S
47«4

1 2 «*

2*«*

4«T

i n «4

V Jw *

1 1 .4

- ¿• i

-1*.9

*«0

1.«

it «4

1 *«*

i- W

u .*

li« >

2-H

IT « *

W

l

* -7 4

4f«4

I >«5
#«i

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4è«9

20«*

1>«4

l» * i

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A*«2

l- U

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10« i

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i» *

v«4

1- n

* •4

¿•1

-*«*

-6 « 1

- * .?

t o «4

14« •

>2^1“

il« }
4*«0

*«9

4 i7 ï T

*è«i

f.J

7Ì*S*

IT T

- tI

• «1

5 .0

1«!

0*4

4 «*

-6* 4

-T T T

" P f i

Ì4 « ò

1 1 .i

•«*

4 «*

11 .0

io « *

9«#

9 .4

0 .5

4—
15

U«5

11.2

•«*

•«* " T i . 7

10.1

9*5

*«4

2 .1 * ü . r

i

«*•1 - 2 ^ 5 - i l « »

l» « i

1 * .2

10«l>

ll« o

ll« e

u *i

12^9"' “ï * « 2

1S«1

I- H

U «2

1 0 .V

U«4

4 > .l

U *i

1±«4

1 0 .*

10« 5

1 * .V

ii.T

•« I

io * ?

'9 .5

1+«*

4-t4

u*s

iè « »

li.5
1 - fV

ii.i

10 «0

10*0

1 4 .Ô

il.*

A *«*

Ì2 « 4

1 1 .4 ' i l * ï

i4 « i

l

iz U

à i.t

- à lt L

T 5

oé« 4

ü . i

l* . o

If.Ô

• l« 4

T 4 « i 102.4
*ï ; t
* 6 .î

* é .»

ê.6

a « i
46*4

45 «4 1 5 . 4 '

ll.l

4 -1 *

* 0 .6

40.5

4 4 .7

29«4

“B T

M

lï.4

¿ i« è

2 1 .1

9 .4

7«o

1*«4

2 o .*

2 2 .*

1 2 .4

1

(« 4

4.4

* 0« 7

4«4

ÿ .T

îK i

iV .i

l* .l

TT«ë " Ì 2 . o

ir J L . y ~ U - à z L

oO«%

-*♦1 - T V « i' • 4 1 . * - * * « ? - > i« 2

i^ .O

B7 T

ii« i

1 4 .4

ii. i

12« 0

14* 4

JU T

* -? * _ à l2 L

4 -1 5

4-W

4 -7 5

l-?4

2-74

*-74

•«i

19«4

2 5« 5

12«S

t»«i

ll.4

" * z r ’ J« 4

4*#0

4.4
*«*

4 ® .4

- T î* 6
1f«s

4 7 .2
1 3 * .?

Î5 « 4

_ l z î t - . _ L i 2 2 _______

i X i l i A l MOA»UH
ï kkiiùkki

m

m

m

g .' W

**m o»

*?♦ uw tt

SOURCES OF DATA
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis, Washington, D.C. 20230
1929-72: The National Income and Product Accounts of the Uhited States,
192^-74, A Survey of Current business Supplement.
1973:
purvey of Current Business, July 1976.
1974-76: Survey of Current Business, July 1977.
The Survey is available from most district offices of the
Department of Comnerce or from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S.
Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402.




19

INVENTORIES

COMPARED WITH MONTHLY S A L E S *

MANUFACTURING AND TRADE
72

.68

68

. 64

64

60

56

.52

52

.48

48

.44

44

.40

40

36

.36
1963

1964

1965

1966

1

« R A T IO S

BA SED

ON S E A S O N A L L Y

SH AD ED

A REAS

REPRESEN T

LA TEST

DATA




PLO TT ED :

A D JU S T E D

P E R IO D S

JU L Y

1969

1

OF

1970

1 97 1

1

DATA.

B U S IN E S S

1
SO U RC E:

4

1

U . S . D EPA R T M EN T

1976
OF

1977

COMMERCE

R E C E S S IO N S .

P R E L IM IN A R Y
PREPARED

20

BY

FED ERA L

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

L O U IS


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102