Full text of National Economic Trends : September 1974
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nnnonnL Economic
PREPARED
M O N TH E N D IN G :
BY
August 31, 1974
B
’
FEDERAL
RESERVE
BANK
trcuds
OF
ST. LOUIS
RELEASED:
September 25 , 1974
^
Total production in the economy decreased at a 4.4
percent annual rate from the fourth quarter of 1973 to the
second quarter of this year. As a result, the rate of output
is currently below the long-term trend which had been estab
lished over the 1947-71 period. The chart on page 20 shows
the pattern of output growth relative to its long-term trend.
This trend line approximates the maximum sustainable rate of
output that can be achieved in the economy. During long periods,
such as 1955-57, 1965-69 and 1972-73, when the rate of output
was maintained above this trend, accelerating inflation resulted.
In other periods during the last twenty-five years, the rate of
output was below the trend, indicating that the economy had some
degree of unused capacity and was operating at less than potential.
Contrary to most of the period when output variations
relative to this trend reflected the effects of changes in aggre
gate demand, the recent decrease was largely due to factors
directly affecting the aggregate supply of goods and services
in the economy. A major factor was the unexpected oil embargo
late last year and subsequent price increases. The effect of
the changed oil situation and related events such as the truckers'
strike has been magnified by other special factors such as crop
failures here and abroad, the devaluation of the dollar, new
government regulations such as expansion of safety and environ
mental laws, and the lingering distortions of price controls.
In addition to the decrease in output, these special
factors contributed to a sharp one-time increase in the general
level of prices in the economy. Occurring as they did, just as
prices were adjusting upward to the removal of price controls,
the oil situation and the other developments served to increase
greatly the rate of price increase reported so far this year.
This is a temporary effect, however, as the more important
consequence is the decrease in productive capacity that has
resulted.
With aggregate demand continuing to grow rapidly
under the stimulus of past monetary and fiscal actions, this
decrease in productive capacity has greatly increased infla
tionary pressures in the economy, at least over the near term.
TOTAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT
C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OP C H A N G E
T E R M IN A L
IN IT IA L
MONTH
w
M ONTH
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
5-73
2-73
9 .2
3-73
« .7
8.3
4-73
6. 1
4.6
1.0
5-73
4.9
3.5
1.2
1.4
6-73
5.6
4.7
3.6
4.8
8.4
7-73
4 .9
4.1
3.0
3. 7
4 .9
8-73
4.0
3.1
2.1
2.4
2.7
6-73
7-73
8-73
9-73 10 - 7 3 11-73 12-73
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
5-74
6-74
8 3 .2 3 0
8 3 .8 5 4
83*950
8 4 .9 1 8
1.5
-0.0
8 4 .6 2 1
-1.5
8 4 .5 1 3
9-73
4 *6
4.0
3.3
3. 7
4.3
2.9
3.7
4 .9
4.4
3.9
4.3
4.9
4.1
4 .9
11-73
4 .4
3.9
3.4
3.7
4.1
3.2
3.7
5.5
3.7
0 . 0 ^
12-7 J
4 .0
3.5
3.0
3.3
3.5
2.7
3.0
4.2
2 .5
0.1
0.3
1-74
¿.9
3.4
2.9
3.1
3. 3
2.6
2. 8
3.7
2 .4
0.8
1.1
2.0
9. 2
8.3
8 5 ,1 3 3
7.5
8 5 .6 4 9
8 5 ,6 4 9
8 5 .6 6 9
8 5 ,8 1 1
2-74
3 .6
3*1
2.6
2.8
3.0
2.3
2.4
3.1
1.9
0.5
0.7
Û. 9
-0.1
3-74
3.4
2.9
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.1
2.2
2.8
1.7
0.6
0.8
0.9
0.4
0.8
4-74
Î.0
2.6
2.2
2.3
2.4
1.8
1.8
2.2
1.3
0.3
0.4
0.4
-0.2
-0.2
-1.2
5-74
3 .0
2.6
2.2
2.3
2.4
1.9
1.9
2.3
1 .5
0.6
0.8
0.8
0.6
0.8
0.8
OOSL
8 5 ,8 0 3
85.863
85.775
2.8
8 5 .9 7 1
6-74
3.0
2.6
2.3
2.4
2.4
1.9
2.0
2*4
1.6
0.9
1.0
1.2
1.0
1 .3
1.4
2.8
2.7^Sw
7-74
3 .0
2.6
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.0
2.0
2.3
1.7
1.0
1.2
1.3
1.2
1.4
1. 6
2.5
2.4
2.1
8-74
2.7
2.4
2.0
2.1
2.1
1.7
1.7
2.0
1.4
0. 8
0.9
0.8
0.9
0.9
1.4
1.0
0.2
-1.7
2 -7 3
3 -7 3
4-73
5-73
6-73
8-73
9 -7 3
11 - 7 3
1 2 -7 3
1 -7 4
2 -7 4
3-74
4 -7 4
5-74
6-74
7 -7 4
2-74
3-74
4-74
5-74
6-74
7-74
7 -7 3
J
0 .8
1 0 -7 3
PAYR O LL
C O M P O U N D S !)
T E R M IN A L
month
IN IT IA L
1
8 6 .1 6 5
8 6 .3 1 2
11
2-73
3-73
4-73
5-73
6-73
2-73
7.7
3-73
5.5
3 .2
4-73
4.7
3 .2
3.1
5-73
4.4
3 .3
3 .3
3 .5
6-73
4.2
3 .3
3 .3
3 .4
3 .3
f-73
3.3
2 .5
2 .3
2 .0
1.3
-0 .8
8-73
3.5
2 .8
2 .7
2 .6
2 .3
1.8
7-73
RATES
OF
CHANGE
THOUSANDS
MONTH
8-73
8 6 .1 8 7
EM PLO YM EN T
ANNUAL
armmi
' ■
1-73
.......
8 3 .7 8 2
10-73
i - n
m i m
7-74
9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73
1-74
........
74,715
74.914
7 5 .1 0 5
75 » 321
75,5*6
75.478
4 .4
73.747
9-73
3.5
2 .9
2. ft
2 .8
2 .6
2 .3
3.9
3 .4
10-73
3.8
3 .3
3 .3
3 .4
3 .4
3 .4
4 .8
5.0
6 .5
11-73
3.9
3 .5
3 .6
3 .6
3 .6
3 .7
4 .8
5 .0
5.8
N
5.1
12-73
3.5
3.1
3.1
3.1
3 .0
2 .9
3 .7
3 .5
3 .5
2.1
-0 .8
75.961
76.363
7
76,679
76,626
1-74
3.1
2 .6
2 .6
2 .5
2 .4
2 .3
2 .8
2 .5
2.2
0 .9
-1.2
- 1 .6
2-74
3.2
2 .8
2.8
2 .7
2 .6
2 .6
3.1
2 .8
2 .7
1.8
0.7
1.5
4 .6
3-74
2.9
2 .6
2 .5
2 .5
2 .4
2 .3
2 .6
2 .4
2.2
1.4
0.5
0 .9
2 .2
76,526
OOL
76,813
-0.1
76,804
4-74
2.9
2 .5
2 .5
2 .4
2 .3
2 .3
2 .6
2 .4
2 .2
1.5
0.8
1.2
2 .2
1.0
2 .2
5-74
2.9
2 .6
2 .5
2 .5
2 .4
2 .3
2 .6
2 .5
2.3
1.7
1.2
1.6
2 .4
1.7
2 .6
6-74
2.7
2 .4
2 .3
2 .3
2 .2
2 .1
2.3
2 .1
2 .0
1.5
0.9
1.2
1.8
1.1
1« 6
1.3
-0 .5
1.9
2.1
1.3
0 .8
l. l
1.5
0 .9
1.2
0 .8
-0 .3
- 0 .0
I TT!
0 .9
l. l
1.5
1.0
1.2
0.9
0 .2
0 .6
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
5-74
6-74
7-74
2 .5
2 .2
2 .2
2.1
2 .0
2 .0
1.8
8-74
2 .5
2 .2
2.1
2 .1
2 .0
1.9
2.1
1.9
1.7
I-T3
¿-7 3
3-73
4-73
5-73
6-73
7-73
8-73
9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73
76.941
3 .1
7 7»136
77j 1 0 1 _____
7 7 .100P
1.2 ^
7 7 ,177P
7-74
P- A R Ê L I M Ï n a Ry
P R É P A R É Ô I V FiBIÏÏAL R E S E R V E
S E P T E M B E R 6* 1 9 7 4
2
BANK O F
ST. L O U Ì S
EMPLOYMENT
RA T I O
MILLiONS
RAT iO S C A L E
SCALE
OF
1966
P E R S ONS
1967
SEASONALLY
1968
1969
MILLIONS
ADJUSTED
1970
1971
1972
SOURCEi
PERCENTAGES
ARE
LATEST
PLOTTEDi
DATA
ANNUAL
RATES
AUGUST
OF
CHANCE
FOR
PERIODS
OF
1973
P F R S ONS
1974
U.S.DEPARTMENT
OF
LABOR
ST.
LOUIS
INDICATED.
PRELIMINARY
PREPARED
BY FEDERAL
RESERVE
BANK
OF
UNEMPLOYMENT R A T E S *
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
1972
SOURCEt
«PERCENT
LATEST
OF
CIVILIAN
LABOR
DATA
PLOTTED«
AUGUST
FORCE
U.S.
1973
DEPARTMENT
1974
OF
LABOR
ST.
LO UIS
IN G R O U P
P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L
3
R E S E R V E BANK Oh
CONSUMER P R IC E IN D E X ,'TETSONALLY AOJUSTEÛT
COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE
TERMINAL_______________ ;___________________________________________________ IN IT IA L MONTH___________________________________________ ________ _______________ 1967 « 100
MONTH
1-73 2-73
5-73 6-73
3-73
4-73
7-73 8-73 9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73 1-74 2-74 3-74 4-74 5-74 6-74 7-74
2-73
8.1
3-73
9 .4
10.8
4-73
8 .9
9 .4
7.9
5-73
8 .5
3 .6
7.5
7 .0
6-73
8 .3
8 .3
7.5
7.3
428.77
129.88
130.71
131.45
7.6
132.25
7-73
7.2
7.0
6. 1
5 .5
4 .7
2 .0
8-73
9 .6
9 .8
9 .6
10.1
11.1
12.9
24.9
9-73
9 .0
9.1
8 .6
9 .0
9.5
10.2
14.5
132.47
134.95
5 .0
135.50
10-73
9.1
9 .3
9 .0
9.2
9 .7
10.2
13.1
7.6
10.2
11-73
9 .2
9 .3
9. i
9 .3
9.7
10.1
12.2
8 .3
10.0
9 .8
12-73
9 .0
9 .1
8.9
9 .1
9 .4
9 .7
11.3
8.1
9 .2
8 .6
7.5
1-74
9 .4
9 .5
9.4
9 .6
9 .9
10.2
11.6
9 .2
10.2
10.2
10.5
13.5
2-74
9 .9
10.0
10.0
10.2
10.5
10.9
12.2
10.2
11.3
11.6
12.2
14.6
15.7
3-74
10.1
10.3
10.2
10.5
1C.8
11.2
12.4
10.7
11.7
12.0
12.5
14.2
14.6
4-74
9 .9
10.1
10.0
10.2
10.5
10.8
11.8
10.2
11.0
11.1
11.4
12.4
12.1
10.3
7.1
5-74
10.1
10.3
10.2
10.4
ÌC .7
11.0
12.0
10.6
11.3
11.5
11.8
12.6
12.4
11.4
10.3
13.5
6-74
10.3
10.4
10. 4
10.6
10.8
11.1
12.0
10.8
11.4
11.6
11.8
12.6
12.4
11.6
10.9
12.8
12.2
7-74
10.2
10.3
10.3
10.5
1C. 7
1 1 .J
11.8
10.6
11.2
11.3
11.5
12.1
11.9
11.1
10.5
11.7
10.8
9 .5
8-74
10.6
10.7
10.7
10.9
11.2
11.4
12.2
11.2
11.8
11.9
12.2
12.8
12.6
*2 .1
11.9
13.1
13.0
13.3
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
5-73
6-73
7-73
8-73
9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
S - Ï4
6-74
136.60
IN IT IA L
137.67
138.50
139.97
141.68
13.6
143.19
144.01
145.54
146.94
148.05
17.4
150.04
MONTH
PREP4RE0 BY FEDERAL RESERVE B A N K OF T f . LÖÜtS '
SEPTEMBER 20, 1974
WHOLESALE PR IC E S - INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
rnHDmiMnFn annuai r a t p s o f C H A N G E
IN1TIA1
v
i*.a \
3—73
14.1
14.3
4-73
13.4
13.1
*- 7 *
4— 7*
5-7*
A-73
7-73
a - 73
9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
4
1
r
9-7*
2-73
1967 * 100
MONTH
it
T F B M f NAI
MONTH
6-74
7-74
121.23
...
123.75
12.0
5-7*
13-1
12.8
12.1
12.2
A-7*
12-*
1 1 -9
11.1
10.7
9 .2
7-7*
10-*
9.fc
8.5
7 .4
5 .0
1.1
U 4 . 9 4 ..... 125*86
125.97
8-7*
9-9
9 .2
8.3
7 .3
5 .8
4 .1
7.3
9-73
9 .9
9 .3
8.5
7 .9
6 .8
t .O
8.6
9 .9
10-73
9 .9
9 .4
a .a
8 .2
7.5
7 .0
9.1
10,. 0
^ 2 0 .7 %
10.1
11-7*
io-a
10.5
10.0
9 .8
9.4
9 .4
11.6
13.1
14.7
12-7*
11.5
11.*
1 1-0
10.8
10.7
10.9
13.0
14.4
16.0
19.1
18.6
1-74
12.7
12.7
12.5
12.5
12.6
13.1
13..2
16.9
18.7
21.7
22 .8
2 7 .2 ^
2-74
13.9
13.9
13.9
14. 1
14.3
1 5 .C
17.1
18.8
20 .7
23.5
24.8
28.1
U 6 f 7 1 _____
- U tliJl- ..
128.74
...... 110 t M ....
19.5
.
138.12
41.3 ^ ^ .
142.16
3 9 .9
146.07
3-74
15.7
15.8
16.0
16.3
16.8
17.6
19.9
21.8
2 3 .9
26.9
28 .8
3 2 .3
3 5 .0
4-74
17.1
17-3
17-6
18-0
18.6
19-6
2 1 .a
2 3 .8
2 5 .9
2Ä.7
30.7
3 3 .9
3 6 .2
5—74
lfi.3
18. h
18-9
19 .5
2 0.1
21.1
23 .4
25.3
2 7 .4
30.0
31.9
34 .7
36.7
39.3
3 8 .3
38.2
6-74
19.0
19 . 3
19.7
20.2
20.9
21.9
25 .8
2 7 .7
30.1
31.7
3 4 .0
35.4
37.1
35.7
34.3
30.5
7-74
20-0
20-4
20.8
21 ^4
22-1
23.1
25.1
26 .9
2 8.7
31.0
32.5
34.6
35 .9
37 .3
3 6 .4
35.7
34.4
38.4
0—74
20.7
21 - 1
21-5
22-2
22.9
23.9
25.9
2 7 .6
29.3
31.4
32.8
34 .7
3 5 .8
36.9
36.1
35.5
34.6
36,6
3 4 .9 > k
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
5-73
6-73
7-73
8-73
9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
5-74
6-74
7-74
24.0
132*54 .. . -
3 8 .5 ^
...1 5 Q a -Q6__
..1 5 3 , 4 3
157.64
1 6 1 , 6 2 ....... .
IN IT IA L MONTH
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO U IS
4
R A T IO
P R IC E S
SC A LE
1966
1967
1962
1969
J970
RATIO
1971
1972
1973
SCALE
197-4
PERCENTA6£S ARE ANNUAL RATES 4F CHANCE F«l FEIJODS INDICATED.
LATEST DAlA PLOTTED> AUGUST
PREPARED »Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. UtUIS
ratio
WHOLESALE PRI CES
scale
ratio
s c a le
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
1966
PfRCE NTA GE S
1967
ARE
1968
1969
A N NU A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E
L A T E S T D AT A P L O T T E D :
1970
FOR PER1 DDS
197 1
1972
1973
1974
IN D IC A T E D .
A U G US T
PREPARED BY FEDERAL
5
RESERVE BANK OK ST.
LOUIS
WH O L E S A L E PRICES - ALL COMMODITIES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
coMPnuiM.QEQ A N M J A L .RATJEfL Q F CttAibLGfL
T N T T IA I
TPQ M TMAI
MDNTH
MONTH
* - 7*
5 - 7 *
« Ï-7 *
4 -7 *
4 -7 *
7 -7 *
A —7 *
1 8 .8
3 -7 3
2 4-1
2 9 .7
4 -7 3
1 9 .3
1 9 .5
1 0 .1
5 -7 3
20 .6
2 1 .2
1 7 .1
24 .6
6 -7 3
2 2 .2
2 3 .0
2 0 .9
26 «6
V -74
2 -7 4
* -7 4
4 -7 4
7 -7 4
6 -7 4
1 3 2 .6 8
1 3 5 .5 0
2 8 .7
.... -¿ 3 3 . 6 3
1 4 .9
1 4 .2
1 0 .6
1 0 .7
4 .4
- 1 5 .4
24 .8
2 5 .8
2 5 .1
2 9 .1
3 0 .7
3 1 .7
1 0 4 .9
9 -7 3
1 8 .7
1 3 .7
1 7 .0
1 8 .4
1 6 .9
1 3 .2
3 0 .9
- 1 6 .4
1 0 —7 3
1 6 .3
1 ft . 0
1 4 .2
1 4 .9
1 3 .1
9 .5
1 9 .3
- 9 .0
1 2 -7 3
15.^
L 5 .Q
1 3 .3
1 3 .8
1 2 .1
9 .0
1 6 .1
12 -7 *
1 5 .9
1 5 .6
14. 1
1 4 .7
1 3 .3
1 0 .9
1 7 .1
! -7 4
1?..a
1 7-
2 -7 4
1 7 .9
* -7 4
1 7 .7
1 7 .5
?
1 3 9 .6 5
- 3 .9
3 .0
7 .2
1 4 0 .4 6
1 .8
8 .7
1 3 .9
2 1 .0
3 0 .3
4 0 .3
2 9 .4
1 4 2 .7 1
té . 4
1 4 .7
2 0 .7
8 .5
1 5 .9
1 7 .8
1 6 .8
1 7 .5
1 6 .7
1 5 .3
2 0 .5
1 0 .3
1 6 .6
2 1 .4
2 6 .6
17 .6
1 6 .6
1 7 .3
1 6 .5
1 5 .3
1 9 .8
1 1 .0
1 6 .3
2 0 .1
2 3 .6
2 4 .5
1 7 .4
16„5
1 7 .0
>6 . 3
1 5 .2
1 9 .2
11 .4
1 6 .0
1 9 .1
2 1 .7
2 1 .9
1 5 .3
1 6 .5
1 7 .0
1 6 .4
1 6 .6
1 5 .7
16. 1
1 5 .5
1 4 .5
1 8 .5
1 7 .9
1 8 .4
1 8 .0
1 7 .2
3 fl .4
1Q
70
2 0 .*
1 9 .7
2 -7 3
3 -7 3
4 -7 3
5 -7 3
6 -7 3
1 6 .7
7 -7 4
1 8 .5
1-73
- 0 .9
1 7 .3
6 -7 4
*
1 3 9 .7 6
1 6 .5
1 7 .3
1 8 .9
.._
1 4 1 .8 6
2 2 .1
1 7 .4
.
1 7 -7 *
1 3 0 .2 7
a -7 3
fl-7 A
i 1 -7 *
_ _UE£t23L -
7 -7 *
5— 74
in - 7 *
126^46
2 -7 *
4-74
<»-7*
1 8 .8
2 0 .8
1 4 6 .7 9
1 4 8 .9 8
1 9 ,4
1 7 .3
_1
6 .3
1 £ .4
i5.a_
1 5 0 .7 4
1 4 .7
1 4 .3
1 5 .4
1 5 .5
1 5 2 .4 3
1 5 4 .4 0
1 6 .7
1 2 .0
1 6 .1
1 7 .7
1 1 .3
1 4 .9
1 7 .1
1 8 .6
18«_2_
1A*JL
1 2 .9
1.1*2
1 J ._ L _
2 0 .4
1 4 .7
1 8 .4
2 0 .8
2 2 .6
2 2 .8
2 0 .1
2 0 .3
2 1 .6
2 4 .1
2 2 .9
1 7 .8
21 .5
2 4 .0
2 6 .1
2 6 .7
2 4 .9
2 5 .8
2 8 . 1_
ii*a_. . . 3 7 ^ 3 .
7 -7 3
8 -7 3
9 -7 3
1 0 -7 3
1 1 -7 3
1 2 -7 3
1 -7 4
2 -7 4
3 -7 4
4 -7 4
INITIAL
20 ,.JB _
1 5 5 .1 3
5 .8
.5
2 8 ,tL
5 -7 4
1 6 0 .9 0
5 ^ 0 .
5 6 .3
5 7 .6
6 -7 4
7 -7 4
1 6 7 .1 2
MONTH
W H O L E S A L E P R I C E S - F A R M P R O D U C T S A N D P R O C E S S E D F O O D S A N D F E E D S , S E A S . AOJ .
________________________CQMPnUNOE - O A N N U A L R A T E S Q F CHAttGf____________________________
J X R & m A J _______ ___________________________________________________________ INI T I A L M O N T H ___________________________________________________________________ L967 » 100
MONTH
___________ 1=23___2.-I-3___lz-U__ k=zJ3___5-7 3 6-73___L r I3 ___8-73 9-73 IQ-7 3 11-73 12-73___1-74 2-74 3-74, 4-74 5-74 6-74
7-74________________
-¿--13________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 140.9
3-73
55.1___U U iJ_______________ ____________________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________ 147.4
4-73
37.3
3 6 .0 ___ LJ>_____ ___________ ______________________________ ___________________________________________________________________ ____________________148.3
5-73
42.0
4 2.7
30.1
57.2_____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________154.0
6- 7_____3 ±3*2_Î U 1 ___$A*Â __ 68^.0___12^6_____________________________________________________________________________________________________ __________________161.7
- I- I 3 ____ ¿ 1 U .._________________Lâx l____ Zm *l.r i U I .................................................................... .................................................. .... ............................... ......... .............. 154.6
_ a r2 3 ____ _______ ISLuJ___1A m3 ___91 *3 . 1Q4.2 117.9 713« 1.
_______________ :________________________________________________________________ 184.1
_2=23____42.^9___41.3___ISL^Q___46^3__ £ 3 .*J_-3 3 .^ .1Q1.9 - 49.
1ÜZ-J3____ 33,3
32.5
27.7___U
JLL-JL3____ Z O - 2 6 .7 . J 2 . Q
^
24.2
______________________.______________________________________________________ _________ 173.8
f l
-16...2__ 46.2 -3 8 .0 - 2 3 . 3 ^ V .......................................................................... .......
19.4
1Q.1
JL2.-I3____ 2.6^__ Z5^Z ___20.9.
2 9 .0 -3 0 .2 -17.5 - 1 1 .4
___LÛ^4___25.4 - 2 1 .4
—L z lâ --- 2 ^ ü ___ZSLm3l— 21*2 ___ Zl^t ___lh*J.___ UL*1 ___32,3
-6 .7
-0 .4
^
y
...................
170.0
______________________________________________________________________ 168.3
1 2 . 0 ^ ^ ^ _______________________________________________________________ 169.9
-fl.Q____L a ___ L2*_Z__ 12jl2___.6 % ________________________ - _______________________________
177.8
-2--Z4____ 21*2 ___Zb^a ___23^3 ___25 *0___21. B
1 6 .1 ___2£*1 __ =¿«.3__________ 16^Q__ 26 .8
34 .9
- 3 = 1 A ____ 22jJ2___21a .7___L ^ 2 ___ 19.3 _ L6l..Q
±0^5___19.7
10.8 - 1 1 .2 - 2 5 . 4 ^ _______________________________________ 174.3
- 9 .C
Q.6____6 .2
-± =Ut--- iA*3.— LL^5-- -------LiuJ!___LL^5__________ 13.^ - 1 1 , 2
- 1*6____ 0.1
2 .6
-5.-1A____ 15.7___U l *2___ L U
-6.3__ - 3 .6
-2 .2
Q
___11.2____ a^ l____ 1*2 ____9 .2 - 1 2 .6 '
-■¿■-74____ LLjlS____2 ^ ____ ________________i^5__ t A
jl Z ____ 3.7
-1 5 .6 -1 0 .6
-1^2A --- L5l«ü — L iu 2 — 11*3 — IImJi____ 3^5____ it*Â___LQ.ifl., ~ S«3
■--fl--74--- 2 iLa— L2-Û— 1£±5___1L.1___ 14^8___11*2 .-16.8
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
5-73
6-73
7-73
- 8 .9
11.1
5.5
0 . 4 - 1 6 . 2 -2 5 .4 - 2 5 . 4 ^ ____________ ;__________________ 170.1
N .
________________________166.4
- 8 .5 -11.5 -2 2 .6 -2 8 .4 -2 9 .3 - 3 1 . 3 - 3 8 . 5 ^ ________________159.8
-¿..5____ QjJ.____ 1.6
0 .2
9-73 10-7 3 11-73 12-73
INITIAL
_____________ ___________________________ 178.6
-4 .9 -1 8 .0 -2 4 .6 - 2 4 .3 -23«2
- 8 .5 - 1 1 .0
- Q .6 ___ 5 ^ ____9*2 ___11*3 ___1 U J ____5 .1
8-73
^ ^
1-74
- 7 .1
0 .0
1 4 .1 1 1 1 .6 ^ ^
170.1
5 .0
12.4
24.5
46.3 125.6 1 4 0 .4 ^
183.0
2-74
3-74
4-74
5-74
6-74
7-74
M0NTH
P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E
6
B A N K OF ST. L O U I S
INDUSTRIAL
PRODUCTION
RATIO
RATIO S CA L E
1966
1967
PE RC E N TA O ES
LATEST
1968
ARE ANNUAL R A T E «
DATA P L O TTE D *
1969
1970
OF CHANSE FOR PE R IO D S
1971
SCALE
1967-100
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
1967-ÌQ0
1972
1973
1974
IN D IC A T E D .
AUGUST P R E L I M I N A R Y
P R EP A R E D
BY FE D E R A L
R E S ER V E
BANK OF S T .
L O U IS
INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
C O M P C U N D E O A N N U A L R A T E S OP C H A N G E
1 9 6 7 « 100
INITIAL M O N T H
TERMINAL
MONTH
1-73
2-73
3-73
4- 7 3
5-73
6-73
7-7 3
8-73
9-73
10-73 11-73
12-73
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
5-74
6-74
7-7 4
123.4
2-73
12.4
3-73
7.6
3.0
4-73
6 .4
3.5
4. 0
5-73
6.8
5.0
6.0
8.0
6-73
6.8
5.4
6.3
7.5
6.9
7- 7 3
7.5
6. 5
7.5
8.6
9. 0
11 . 0
1
123.7
124.1
124.9
<4.5%
123. 6
126.7
126.5
8-73
6 .1
5.1
5.5
5.9
5.2
4.4
-1.9
9-73
5 .7
4.8
5.1
5.3
4.6
3.9
0.5
2.9
10-73
5.3
4.4
4.6
4.7
4.1
3.4
1.0
2.4
126.8
127.0
1.9
127.5
11-73
5.2
4. 5
4. 6
4.7
4.2
3.7
1.9
3.2
3.4
12-73
3 .8
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.2
1.4
-0.4
0.0
-0.9
-2.3
-9.0
1-7 4
2.6
1.8
1.7
1.4
0. 6
-0.3
-2.0
-2.1
-3.3
-4.9
-9.5
-9.9
2-74
1.8
1.0
0.8
0.5
-0.3
-1.2
-2.8
-3.0
-4. 1
-5.6
-8.8
-8.7
-7.4
4 , a V \
1 26.5
125.4
12 4 . 6
1 2 4.7
3-74
1.8
1.0
0.8
0.5
-0.2
-1.0
-2.4
-2.4
-3.3
-4.3
-6.4
-5.6
-3.3
1.0
4-74
1.8
1.0
0.9
0.6
0.0
-0.7
-1.9
-1.9
-2.6
-3.3
-4.8
-3.7
-1.6
1 .5
1 .9
5-74
2.1
1.5
1.4
1.2
0. 6
0.1
-0.9
-0.8
-1.3
-1.7
-2.8
-1.5
0.7
3.6
4.9
8.0
6-74
2.1
1.5
1.4
1.2
0.7
0 .2
-0.8
-0.7
-l.l
-1.4
-2.3
-1.1
0.8
2.9
3.6
4.4
7-74
1.9
1.3
1.2
1.0
0.5
0. 1
-0.8
-0.7
-1.0
-1.4
-2.1
-1.1
0.5
2.1
2.4
2.6
0.0
-0.9
125.TP
8-74
1.5
1.0
0.9
0. 7
0.2
-0.3
-1.1
-1.0
-1. 4
- 1 . 7 |- 2 . 4
-1.5
-0.3
1.0
1.0
0.7
— 1.6
— 2.8
1 2 5 . 2P
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
5-73
6-73
7-73
8-73
9-7 3
10-73 11-73
12-73
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
5- 74
6-74
124.9
X
125.7
125.8
1.0
7-74
INITIAL M O N T H
P- P R E L I M I N A R Y
P R E P A R E D 9V F E D E R A I
S E P T E M B E R 18, 1974
7
RESERVE
B A N K OF ST. L O U I Ì
PE RS ONA L
RATIO
SCALE
TRILLIONS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
OF D O L L A R S
1966
I NCOME
RATIO
MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES
1967
1968
1969
1970
TRILLIONS
1971
1972
1973
s o w e i t «.s. ocp a s Tueur *
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERlOOS INOICATEO.
SCALE
OF D O L L A R S
1974
commerce
LATEST OATA PLOTTEOt AUCUST PRELIMINARY
PREPAREO SY FEOERAL RESERVE SANK OF ST. LOUIS
PERSONAL INCOME
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL PATES OF CHANGE
BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
IN IT IA L MONTH
TgRMI^AL
m^nth
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
10.0
3.7
3.7
11.2
10*0
9 .2
9 .4
2 -* 3
IS .9
3-73
14.3
12*6
4-73
12.4
13.7
5-73
11.5
6-73
5-73
6-73
7-73
8-73
9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-7»
5-74
6-74
7-74
■UPJltT
■
L tO jg ??
10*0
1 .0 4 7 .2
7 -7 3
lia
1 0 . 2 ____ 9 ^ 5 ____ 9 . 8
8-73
11.5
10.3
10*4
1 0 .ft
11.5
12.3
13.9
9-73
12.0
11.4
l i . 2 __ 11.7
12.5
li.3
14.6
15.4
10-73
12.0
11.5
11.3
12.4
13.0
13.8
13-8
11-73
11.8
11.4
11.3
12-73
11.5
11,1 .1 0 ,9
1-74
10.5
10.0
9.7
11.8
..... .IP a .L .
■
Vt Q * T .y
1 .0 8 0 .4
-LtP.?.o»e
12.2
1 1 .6 1 2 .1
12.5
13.0
12.7
11,4
11,2
11.5
ÌUÒ
12.0
11.5
1 0 J ____9 ^
9.8
10.0
10.0
9 .9
9.1
7 .6
10,6
6 .1
8 .0
3 .9
■A±A.Q7 t !
- 0 .1
AilPTtP
-lzl±___ 120-.
_L l L L L l4 .
3-74
9.8
9. 3
9 ,0
9. 1
9.1
9 .0
8.8
8.1
6 .9
5.9
4 .7
3.7
5 .6
4.1
<►-74
9,7
9 .3
9 .0
9.1
9 .1
9 .0
8 .8
8 .2
7.2
6 .4
5.6
5 .0
6 ,7
6 ,5
9 ,1
1.117.1
5-74
9.8
9 .4
9.2
9 .2
9.3
9.2
9. 1
8 .5
7.7
7.1
6 .5
6 .2
7 ,8
8 ,1
10. 1
1 .1 3 5.2
11,2
6-74
9.3
9 .4
9.2
9.3
9.2
9.1
8 .6
7.9
7 .3
6 .9
6 .7
8 .1
8 ,3
9,8
10.2
9,1
7-74
1 0 .?
9 .8
9.7
9 .7
9 .«
9. 8
9 .7
9 .3
8.7
8, 4
8,1
8.1
9 .5
10,0
11.5
12.4
13.0
16.9
9-74
10.0
9 .7
9 .5
9 .6
9 .6
9 .6
9 .5
9 .1
8 .6
8,2
8 .0
8 .0
9 .2
9 ,5
10.6
11.0
11,0
U .9
7 .2
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
5-73
6-73
7-73
8-73
9-73 10- T3 11-73 12-73
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
5-74
6-74
7-74
1 .1 4 3,5
1 .1 5 8.5
1 .1 6 5 .2 P
IN IT IA L MONTH
*>- PftFLIMINA^Y
PREPAREO BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO U IS
SEPTEMBER 19, 1974
8
RETAIL
RATIO
SALES
RATIO
SCALE
BI L LI ONS
1966
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
OF DOLLARS
1967
1968
1969
1970
1971
UMCIi
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST
B I L LI ONS
1972
SCALE
OF DOLLARS
1973
1974
U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
OATA PLOTTED. JULY, AUSUST ADVANCE ESTIMATE
fftCFAREO «V FEDERAL RESERVE DANK OF ST. LOUIS
R ET A IL SALES
COMPCUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL______________________________ _________ ____________
MONTH
4-73
5-73
1-71 2-73 3- 7 3
6-73. 7-73
2-73
a -7 3
IN IT IA L MONTH__________________ ____ ______________________________________ MILLIONS OP
DOLLARS
6- 74 7-74
1-74 2-74 3-74 4-74 5-74
9-73 I Q z l l J U z J X
41,242
17.0
2 3 .7 {
3-73
20.3
4-73
4 .8
5-73
7.7
4.7
-3.6
16.9
6-73
2 .7
-0.5
-7 .5
-0.3 -14.9
7-73
10.4
9. 1
5.7
16.3
4 1 ,9 7 9
- 0 . 8 - 20. 5
4 1 .1 8 5
4 1 ,7 2 3
16.0
4 1 ,1 6 7
58.0
4 2 ,7 6 7
8-73
7.0
5.5
2.2
8. 8
6.2
18.6
-1 1 .0
9-73
6.8
5.4
2.6
8.0
5. 9
13 . 9
-3 .3
5.0
10-73
7 .5
6.4
4. 1
8.9
7.3
13*7
1 .9
9 .0
11-73
6 *7
5.6
3.6
7.6
6.1
10.9
1.5
6 .0
12-73
3.8
2.5
C.4
3.4
1.6
4.7
- 3 .6
- 1 .7
1-74
5.5
4.5
2.7
5.7
4.4
7.5
0.8
3 .3
2-7.4 .... 5.5
4.6
3,0
5.7
4. 5
7.3
1.5
3 .7
3.4
1.1
1.5
15.4
5.8
3-74
6 .6
5.9
4. 5
7.1
6.2
8.9
3 .9
6 .2
6 .4
5 .1
6.4
17.8
13.9
2 2 .6
4-74
7.0
6.3
5. 1
7.5
6. 7
9.2
4 .8
6 .9
7.2
6.2
7.5
16.2
13.2
17.1
u
5-74
7.6
7.0
5.9
8.3
7.6
9. 9
6 .0
8.1
8.5
7.8
9.1
16.6
14.3
17.3
14.8
6-74
6 .6
6.0
5.0
7.1
6.3
8.3
4 .7
6 .4
6.5
5 .7
6 .5
12.1
9 .5
10.5
6 .7
4 .3
-7 .8
7-74
8.9
8. 5
7.6
9.8
9.3
11 . 4
8 .2
10.1
10t 7
10.4
11.7
17.5
16.2
18.4
17.4
19.3
20.0
56
8-74
8 .3
8. 4
7.5
9.6
9.1
11.1
8.1
9 .9
10.3
10.0
11.2
16.2
14.8
16.4
1 5 .?
16.1
15.5
29
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
5-73
6-73
7-73
8-73
9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73
1-74
2-74
3-74
4-74
5-74
6- 74
4 2 ,3 5 5
4 2 ,5 2 9
13.2 ^
6 .5
7 J %
0.2
-
4 2 ,9 7 6
- 3 .8 -11.3 -2 1 .5
2.9
-0.6
-0.4
in it ia l
p
4 2 ,9 7 0
4 2 ,1 1 6
2 5.9
4 2 ,9 3 *
4 3 ,1 3 4
43, m
.
e
\
4 4 ,2 8 3
17.9
4 4 ,8 9 4
4 4 ,5 9 3
46,276P
.2
7 ,0 Ì
46,538E
7-74
Mo n th
pr e l im in a r y
e s t i m a t e s _______________
__
_____________ :_________________________________________________________ ___________________________
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE
SEPTEMBER 12. 1974
9
BANK OF ST* LO UIS
COMPENSATION PER MAN-HOUR, TOTAL P R IV A TE ECONOMY
________ CCMPCUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE_________
T E R M IN A L
1967
QUARTER
i n i t i a l
»
100
QUARTER
3-69
4-69
9. 9
1-7 0
*-o9
¿-70
3-70
4-70
2 -7 1
1 -7 1
4 -7 1
2 -7 2
1 -7 2
3 -7 2
1 -7 3
4 -7 2
2 -7 3
3 -7 3
4 -7 3
6. 2
7.7
Ò .6
7.1
3 -7 0
8 .1
7.4
8.1
7. 4
c.a
7.5
7.0
2 -7 1
7.3
b«9
7.0
7.0
6,3
7.C
6 ,3
3 -7 1
7 .4
7.0
7.1
7.1
6 .7
7 .3
7 ,0
7,8
4 -7 1
7 ,0
6 .6
6 .7
6 .6
6 .1
6.4
6 ,0
5 ,8
1
4
8.Û
0
1 -7 0
1 2 1 .3
1 2 3 .4
9.C
1 2 6 .1
7.0
6 .9
4 .8
1 2 7 .6
7.2
7.2
6 .3
1 3 0 .0
7 .7
1 3 2 .0
1 3 4 .5
1 3 5 .8
1 -7 2
7.2
6.S
7.0
7.0
6 .7
7 .1
6 ,9
7 .1
6 .8
9 .8
7 ,1
6 .9
7.0
6 .9
6 .6
6 .9
6,8
6 ,9
6.6
8 .0
6 .2
3-72
«4
.
C
3 .9
2 -7 2
6 ,7
6 ,7
6 ,7
6.4
6 ,6
6 ,5
6 ,5
6 .2
6 .9
5 ,5
4-72
7 .3
6,d
6,8
O.Ö
6 .5
6 ,7
6 ,6
6 .7
6 .4
7.1
6 ,2
6 ,2
7 .5
i-73
7 ,4
7.2
7,3
7.3
7.2
7 ,4
7 ,4
7 .5
7.5
8.2
7,8
8 .4
10.2
13.0
2-73
7 ,3
7.1
7,2
7,2
7,1
7« J
7,2
7 ,3
7.3
7.8
7,5
7.8
8 .8
9 .4
6 ,0
3-73
7 ,2
7 .0
7.1
7,1
6 .9
7,1
7,1
7 .2
7 .1
7.5
7 ,2
7.4
8 .0
8 .2
5 ,8
4-73
7.3
7.1
7 .2
7,2
7.0
7 ,2
7,2
7 .3
7 .2
7 .6
7 .3
7 .5
8 .0
8 .2
6 .6
7 .0
8.3
i-74
7 .2
7.1
7.1
7.1
7.0
7 ,2
7,1
7 .2
7.1
7 .5
7 .2
7 .4
7.8
7 ,8
6 .6
6 .8
7.4
6 .5
2-74
7.6
7 .5
7.5
7 .6
7 ,5
7 .7
7.7
7 ,6
7.8
8.2
8*0
8 ,2
3 .7
8 ,9
8 .1
6 .6
9 .6
10,3
4-69
l-7o
2—VO
3-fO
4-70
J - t f T
1 -7 4
1 1 9 ,5
2 -7 0
i- 7 1
3-71
1 3 9 .0
1 -7 2
4 -7 1
i - n
1 4 1 .1
4 .9
“2 = 7 7
142*8
1 4 5 .4
149,9
1 -7 3
T -7 2
152.1
5.6
2 -7 3
1 5 4 .2
"3 = 7 3 "
1 5 7 .3
4 -7 3
159.8
14.2
165.2
T-T4
IN IT IA L QUARTER
OUTPUT PER MAfc-HOUR» TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY
C0MPCUN0EC ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
IN IT IA L
TERMINAL
QUARTER
3-69
4—6*»
4-69
- o .a
1-70
—0 ,8
2-70
0,6
1 .*♦
1-70
2-70
3-70
4-70
1-71
2-71
3-71
QUARTER
4-71
1-72
1967 • 100
2-72
3-72
4-72
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
1-74
103.1
-0.«
1 0 2 .9
3.!>
103.8
3-70
2 ,3
3.4
«5.5
r.t>
4-70
1,5
2.1
3.1
2 .9
- 1 ,5
1-71
2 ,8
3 .6
*.r
5 .0
3 ,8
9,4
2-71
2 ,7
3.3
4.2
4.3
3,3
5 .8
2.2
3-71
2.9
3.4
4.1
4.2
3.4
5.1
3.0
3 .7
4-71
2 .9
3 .3
3.9
4.0
3 .3
4.6
3.0
3.4
3.0
1-72
3 .0
3.4
4.0
4.0
3 .4
4.5
3.2
3.6
3.5
4 .1
2-72
3.2
3.6
4. 1
4.2
3.7
4,6
3.7
4.1
4.2
4.8
5.5
3-72
3.2
3.',
4. 1
4.1
2 .7
4.5
3.7
4.C
4.0
4 .4
4.5
3, 6 *
4-72
3.4
i .'i
♦ .2
4.1
3.9
<*.6
3 .9
4.2
4.3
4.6
4.8
4,5
5 ,4
1-73
3.6
4 .C
<«.4
4.1
4 .8
4 ,2
4 .5
4.6
5 .0
i>.2
5,1
5 ,9
6 ,4
1 0 5 .7
1 0 5 .3
1 0 7 .7
J.i JQ9L
\
1 0 8 .3
109.3
110.1
111.2
112,7
113.7
115.2
2-73
3.3
~4~. 4 ^
t. ■
■ .J
4.'5
».9
4 •C
3.6
4 .2
3,6
3 ,8
3,8
3 .9
3.9
3 .5
3,4
2 ,4
'
3-73
3.J
.Î.2
3.5
3.5
3.2
3.6
3 .0
3.1
3.1
3.1
2, 9
2.4
2,1
1,0
- 1 .5
- 1 .7
4-73
2.»
3 .0
J.3
3 .3
2.9
3 ,3
2 .8
2.8
2.7
2.7
2 ,5
2.0
1,7
0 ,8
- 1 ,0
- 0 .9
- 2 ,6
[
117.0
u
>
116,6
\
s<
116,1
A l8 %
o .o X ^
1-74
2 .2
2. 4
2.6
2.3
2.2
2.5
1 .9
1.9
1.7
1.6
1,3
0 .7
0 ,2
- 0 ,8
- 3 .0
- 3 .6
- 7 .0 s
2-74
2.2
2. J
2.3
2.5
2,1
2,4
1.9
1 .8
1.7
1.5
1.3
0 ,8
0 ,4
- 0 ,5 1 - 1 .8 1 - 1 .9
- 1 .9
- 2 .9
3-69
4-69
1-70
2-70
3-70
4-ró
2-Ti
3-71
4 -7 1
1 -7 2
2 -7 2
3 -7 2
1-73
3-73
4-73
i - n
4 -7 2
2-73
116,1
114,0
k
114,4
1-74
W t m r ""(KJAKTCTT
------------------------------------- PffEPXEIP ^ B V T B D t m t H lf ? SERVÊ BANK OF S IT IÜ 0 1 S
SEPTEMBER 3, 1974
1 0
PRODUCTIVITY, COMPENSATION, AND LABOR COSTS
RATIO
SCALE
RATIO
19 67 -100
1966
1967
1968
1969
1970
S CALE
1 9 6 7 -1 0 0
SEA S O N A LLY A D JU S TED
1971
1972
1973
1974
SOURCEi 0.8. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CNAN6E FOR PERIOOS INOICATED.
LATEST OATA PLOTTEO» 2ND OUARTER
PREPARED DY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
UNIT LAeOR COSTS. TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY
CCMPCLNOEC ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL__________________________ _______________________________________ IN IT IA L QUARTER_____________
QUARTER
3-69 4-69
1-70 2-70
3-70 4-70
1-71 2-71
3-71 4-71
1-72 2-72 3-72
10.7
1-70
9.1
7.5
2-70
7.1
5 .4
3.4
3-70
5 .7
4.1
2.4
1.4
5.3
* .7
3.7
3 .9
fc.5
i
o
1967 * 100
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
1-74
115. 8
*
4—69
____
4-72
117*9
118.9
119*3
121*2
1-71
4 .6
3.4
2.4
2 .0
2 .4
- 1 .6
2-71
4 .5
3.5
2.6
2 .6
3.0
1.3
4 .4 ^ + 2 . 8 %
122*0
120*7
3-71
4 .4
? •5
2.9
2.7
3.1
2 .0
3.8
123.0
4-71
4 .0
3.2
2.6
2 .5
2 .7
1.7
2 .9
2 .1
1.0
1-72
4 .2
3.5
3.0
2.9
2 .2
2 .6
3 .6
3 .4
3 .4
6 .0
2 .2
3.0
2 .6
2.4
3.1
0 .3
0.8
3.3
123*3
125.1
2-72
3.8
3.2
2.7
2 .6
2 .8
3-72
3 .6
3 .0
2.6
2 .5
2.6
125*2
2.1
2 .7
2 .4
2.1
2.5
4-72
3.5
2.9
2.5
2 .4
2 .5
2 .0
2.6
2 .3
2.1
2.4
1.2
1 .6
1-73
3.7
3.2
F
I____0
2.7
2 .9
2 .5
3 .0
2 .8
2.7
3.1
2 .4
3 .1
4 .0
2-73
3.9
3 .5
3.2
3 .2
3 .3
3 .0
3 .5
3 .4
3.4
3.9
3.4
4 .2
5 .2
6 .9
3-73
4.1
3.7
3.5
3.5
3 .6
3 .4
3 .9
3 .8
3.9
4.3
4.1
4 .8
5 .7
7 .0
4-73
4 .4
4 .0
3 .B
3.8
4 .0
3 .8
4 .3
4 .3
4 .4
4 .7
5 .4
6 .3
7 .4
7 .8
7*8
8*4
1-74
4.9
4 .6
4 .4
4 .5
4 .7
4 .6
5.1
5 .2
5.4
5 .9
5 .9
6 .7
7 .6
6 .8
9*4
10*0
It* 5
14*6
2-74
5 .3
5.0
4 .9
5 .0
5.2
5 .1
5 .7
5 .8
6 .0
6 .5
6 .6
7 .4
8 .3
9 .4 | 1 0*1| 10*7
11*8
13*6
1 2*5^
4-69
r-76
2-70 ~ T - 7 ir 4-70
1-71
2-71
3-71
4=7T
1-72
2-72
3-72
1-73
3-/3
4-73
1-74
125*6
1.3
126*2
dr
.......... - ................... .
... ..................................... ........................... ......... ... .
128*1
w
4-72
130*5
T .5
132.8
7*2
2-T3
135*5
140*2
144*4
IN IT IA L CUARTER
PREPAR ED BV F K P E f f lF Rg S l ff V E ~ B 1 WK (IF “ S T * 'H CT O 1 5
SEPTEMBER 3* 1974
11
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS'
'biTxrmrw
TERMINAL
OUARTCft
ANNUAL
4 -6 9
1 -7 0
2 -7 0
o
•
3 -6 9
4 -6 9
(T T n
1 -7 0
3 «6
4 ? | ,s , + 4 . 2 %
2 -7 0
4 .1
4 .6
3 -7 0
4 .9
5 .4
6 .1
7 * 1 S|
4 .5
4 .7
4 .4
6 .6
7 .2
7 .9
8 .4
2 -7 1
3 -7 1
4 -7 1
1 -7 2
2 -7 2
3 -7 2
4 -7 2
1 -7 3
2 -7 3
3 -7 3
4 -7 3
R A T E S .... ..
1- 74
9 4 8 .9
4 -7 0
tE—
1 -7 1
4 -7 0
—
OOLLARS
IN IT IA L QUARTER
9 5 8 .5
9 7 0 .6
9 8 7 .4
9 9 1 .8
S
—
E d
i- 7 i
6 .0
2 -7 1
6 .3
6 .9
7 .3
7 .9
8 .2
1 1 .5
3 -7 1
6 .2
6 .6
7 .0
7 .4
7 .5
9 .5
4 -7 1
6 .4
0 .3
7 .2
7 .6
7 .7
9 .2
7 .3
7 .0
1 -7 2
7 .0
7 .4
7 .9
8 .2
Ö .4
9 .8
8 .5
8 .7
2 -7 2
7 .3
7 .7
a . i
9 .5
8 .7
9 .9
8 .9
3 -7 2
7 .5
7 .9
8 .3
8 .6
8 .8
9 .9
9 .0
1 * 0 2 7 .8
1 .0 4 7 .3
6*6
1 ,0 6 1 .3
1 .0 8 3 .2
1 0 .4
ii
9 .1
1 0 .4
1 1 .3
9 .2
1 0 .2
1 0 .7
1 0 .0
^
1 ,1 1 5 * 0
K
1 * 1 4 3 .0
VL» I V . V / T
9
>
1 ,1 6 9 .3
\
1 .2 0 4 .7
4 -7 2
7 .9
3 .3
8 .7
9 .0
9 .2
1 0 .2
9 .5
9 .8
1 0 .7
1 1 .2
1 0 .9
1 1 .1
1 2 .7 s '
1 -7 3
8 .4
f l. 6
9 .2
9 .6
9 .9
1 0 .8
1 0 .2
1 0 .6
1 1 .5
1 2 .1
1 2 .0
1 2 .5
1 4 .1
i s
2 -7 3
a . 5
8 .9
9 .3
9 .6
9 .8
1C. 7
1 0 .2
1 0 .5
1 1 .?
1 1 .7
1 1 .5
1 1 .8
1 2 .6
1 2 .5
3 -7 3
9.6
9 .0
9 .3
9 .6
9 .9
1 0 .6
1 0 .2
1 0 .4
1 1 .1
1 1 .4
1 1 .3
1 1 .5
1 1 .9
1 1 .7
9 .6
4 -7 3
8 .7
9 .1
9 .4
9 .7
1 0 .0
1 0 .7
1 0 .2
1 0 .5
l l . l
1 1 .4
1 1 .3
1 1 .4
1 1 .8
1 1 .6
1 0 .3
1 0 .6
1 -7 4
8 .5
a .a
9 .1
9 .4
9 .6
1 0 .2
9 .8
9 .9
1 0 .4
1 0 .6
1 0 .4
1 0 .4
1 0 .5
1 0 .1
8 .6
6 .5
7 .8
2 -7 4
8 .4
a .7
9.0
9 .3
9 .4
I 1 0 .0
9 .6
9 .7
1 0 .1
10.3
1 0 .1
1 0 .0
1 0 .1
9 .7
8 .6
8 .3
7 .7
6 .0
3-69
4-69
1-70
2-70
3-70
1-71
2-71
3-71
4-71
1-72
2-72
3-72
4-72
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
4-70
X
1 .2 4 8 .9
.
1 ,2 7 7 .9
1 ,3 0 8 .9
i o a Ss^
l h 2 S
1 ,3 4 4 .0
v
1 ,3 5 8 .8
1
1 .3 8 3 .8
1- 7 4
GROSS NATIONAL Wöf>UCT W C C N S T a NT 1958 DOLL~A~TC
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________
6 T n iö fR " ö r
IN IT IA L QUARTER
QUARTER
3-69
4-69
4-69
1-70
2-70
1-71
2-71
3-71
4-71
1-72
2-72
3-72
4-72
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
1-74
729.1
- 2 .2
- 2 .1 s
2-70
- 1.3
- o .e
3-70
- 0 .3
0 .4
1.7
- 0 .8
- 0 .4
- 0 .8
1.3
2 .2
2 .7
1-71
4-70
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
r .,> ^
1-70
4-70
3-7C
TERMINAL
S
1..II 71
0 .7
721.2
0 .5 s
722.1
7^7.2
719.3
r
\
1' 10. 2s
736.9
2-71
1.0
1.6
¿ .3
2 .d
2 .7
6 .4
3-71
1.2
1 .7
2 .4
2 .9
2 .8
5.2
2 .8
27> ^
4-71
1.8
2.3
3 .0
3 .4
3 .5
5.5
4 .0
4.fc
» T N
1-72
2.2
2 .9
i .4
3. a
4 .0
5 .7
4 .6
5 .2
6 .4
742.1
747.2
759.1
* 6 -7 *
6 .4
770.9
2-72
2.6
3.3
3.9
4 .4
4 .6
6.1
5.4
6 .0
7.1
7 .4
8.4 s
3-72
3.1
3.5
4.1
4 .5
4 .9
6.1
5.5
6 .0
6.3
6 .9
7.2
6 .0 s
4 .9
5 .2
6.4
5 .9
6 .4
7.1
7 .3
7 .6 .
7 .1
8 .0
7 .9
8 .9
6 .5
6 .6
5 .8
4-72
3.5
3 .9
♦. 5
1-73
3.9
'♦.4
4 .9
5 .3
2-73
3.8
4 .2
4 .7
5 .1
3-73
3.6
4 .0
4 •*5
4 .9
5 .0
4-73
3.5
3 .9
.3
<*.6
4 .8
1-74
814*2
6 .3
6 .8
7.5
7 .7
5.8
6 .2
6.7
6 .8
6 .8
5. d
5.4
5 .7
6.1
6 .0
6 .0
5 .5
5 .4
4 .4
1 .9
1 .6 s O /
5.5
5 .1
5 .4
5.7
5.6
5 .4
4 .9
4 .7
3 .9
2 .1
2 .0
f Z
5 .3
786.6
798.1
71
6.3
832.8
837*4
1
840.8
2 .V S .
845.7
1
*
INI
2.9
3.2
3.6
3 .*
3 .9
4 .5
4.1
4 .2
4.3
4 .1
3.8
3 .2
2 .7
1.6
- 0 .3
- 1 .1
-2*4
-7^0^
830.5
2.7
3 .0
i.3
3 .5
3.5
4.1
3 .6
3 .7
3.fl
3 .5
3.2
2 .5
2.1
1.1
- 0 .5
- 1 .2
- 2 .2
- 4 .4
-1 ^
827*1
3-69
4-6^
1-70
70
3-70
h-70
1-71
2-71
i-71
4-71
1-72
2-72
3-72
4-72 T - T T
2-73
3-73
4-73
1-74
2-
—
INITIAL QUA*T?ft
---- _--------- ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ■
------- ____________— __ __ _____— -
SEPTEMBER 20,
1 2
1974
w
.
-
—. n
i .
.
•
DEMAND
RATIO
SCALE
TRILLIONS
AN D
PRODUCTION
TOTALS
AT
QUARTERLY
OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL
RATIO
RATES
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
TRILLIONS
OF
SCALE
DOLLARS
«
1 . 2
«
0 .
0.9
0 .
0.8
0 .
0.7
0 .
0.6
0 .
0.5
1966
1967
1968
U_6NP
I N CURRENT D O L L A R S .
ßGNP
IN
1969
1970
1971
SO U R CE *
1972
U .S .
1973
1974
D EP A R TM E N T OF COMMERCE
1 9 5 8 DOLLARS.
P E R CEN TAG E S ARE ANNUAL RATE S OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S
L A T E S T DATA P L O T T E D «
IN D IC A T E D .
2ND QUARTER
PREPARED BY FE D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T .
13
L O U IS
GENERAL P R I C E
RATIO
INDEX*
SCALE
RATIO
1958 *1 0 0
1966
SCALE
1958*100
196?
1966
1969
1970
1971
1972
1975
1974
* S USEO III NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
SUKCti «.S. MfMITlKNT Of COMMERCE
PERCENTACES ARC ANNUAL RATES OF CHANtE FOR PERIORS INRICATE0.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 2N0 OtIARTER
PREPARE« i t FEDERAL RESERVE RANK OF ST. LWIS
IMPLICIT PRICE OSFIATOH
T O *
GROSS NiTIONALPKOOUCT
IN IT IA L 1 QUARTER
TFRMINAL
1958
*
100
Ô Ù À ftttA
3-69
4-69
5 .5
1-70
5 .9
4-69
1-70
2-70
3-70
4►-70
1 -7 1
2 -7 1
3 -7 1
4 -7 1
1 -7 2
? - ?2
3-72
4 -7 2
1 -7 3
2 -7 3
3 -7 3
4 -7 3
1 -7 4
1 3 0 .0 8
6 .3
1 3 2 .9 1
0
p1
5 .5
5 .5
3-70
5 .1
5 .0
4 .3
4-70
5 .4
5 .3
5 .0
5 .2
1-71
5.3
$.2
« .9
5.1
1 3 4 .4 1
I . Ì S
2-71
5.2
5 .2
3-71
* .9
< * .8
4-71
4 .5
h .4
«*.1
I
1
..
1 3 5 .7 7
1 3 7 .0 0
5 .5
4 .7 s
1 3 9 .4 7
5 .0
5 .3
*•5
4 .6
4 .0
3.7
2 •6*SV W
4 .1
4.1
3.5
3.1
2.2
i.........
1
1 4 1 .1 3
1 4 2 .0 3
1 4 2 .7 0
r o .iT V "
1-72
4 .6
4 .5
4 .3
4 .3
4 .3
3 .9
3.7
3 .3
3.7
5 .5
2-72
4 .4
4 .3
4 .0
4 .0
4 .0
3.6
3.3
3 .0
3.1
3 .7
1 .9 s
3-72
4 .3
4 .2
<>.0
3 .9
3 .9
3.5
3.3
3 .0
3.1
3.6
2 .6
3.9
1 4 4 .6 2
1 4 5 .3 1
1 4 6 .5 0
4-72
4 .3
4 .?
4 .0
J.9
3.0
3.4
3 .2
3.3
3 .7
3.1
3 .7
♦
1-73
4.4
4 .3
4 .1
4 .1
4 .1
3.8
3 .7
3 .5
3.7
4 .0
3 .7
4 .3
4 .8
4.1
4 .0
4.2
4 .6
4 .4
5*0
5 .6
6 ,4
7«»
1 5 2 .6 1
5 .1
5 .0
5 .7
6*3
7*0
7 .8
l î T
1 5 5 .6 7
>
V ^
1 4 7 .9 6
1 4 9 .9 5
2-73
4 .A
4 .5
4 .3
4 .3
4 .3
4.1
3-T3
4 •*i
t.7
4 .6
4 .6
4 .7
4 .5
4 .5
4 .5
4 .7
4-73
5.0
5 .0
4 .9
4 .9
5.0
4 .8
4 .9
4 .9
5 .1
5 .5
5 .5
6 .2
6 .7
T .4
• •1
• .3
1-74
5.4
5 .4
5 .3
5 .4
5 .5
5.4
5 .5
5 .5
5 .8
6 .3
6 .4
T.O
7 .6
•«4
9 ,1
9*7
1 0 .5
IM
2-7*
5.6
5 .6
5.6
5 .6
5 .7
5 .7
5.8
5 .8
6 .1
6 .6
6 .7
7 .3
7 .9
1 ••*1.
9*2
9*6
1 0 .1
1 0 .8
3-69
4-'>o
1-70
2-70
3-70
4-70
T -Y f
3- f t
4 - f l
1 -7 3
2 -7 3
3 -7 3
4 -7 3
2-71
■
■
m i m -
1 -7 2
3 -7 2
4 -7 2
V
.
s
l é
1 5 0 .9 3
V
S ,
1 6 3 .6 1
9«^ \
1 6 7 .3 1
i- 7 4
Q U O TE*"
m
n
w
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t v m
m
SEPTEMBEft 2 0 , M T *
14
i
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i
t
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m
m
.
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P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
__________ C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E ___________
TERMINAL
INITIAL QUARTER
WÀfttÈR
3-69
4-69
1-70
2-70
3-70
4-70
1-71
2-71
3-71
»«71
1-72
2-7 2
3-72
4-72
1-T3
7.5
1-70
7 .3
2-70
7 .0
3-73
4-T3
594.4
_____________________
604.6
7 .0
614.0
6 .9
4-70
2-73
"BILLIONS O F ”
DOLLARS
"ANNUAL KATES"
1-74
623.7
6 .5
5 .7
626.3
5.3
4 .7
3*0
7.6
8 .0
•8
14.9
7.5
7 .8
8.3
11.0
7.3
7 .3
7 .5
7 .8
9 .4
6 .8
6 .2
6 .9
6 .7
7.1
9.2
7.8
8 .0
8 .9
650.5
662.1
2-71
7.5
3-71
7.3
4-71
7 .3
7.3
7 .4
7.6
1-72
7.6
7 .7
7 .9
8 .2
2-72
8.0
8.1
8 .3
8.6
9 .6
8.5
9 .7
II.1
11.3
3-72
.1
8 .4
8 .7
9 .5
8.7
8 .9
9 .6
10.5
10.3
9 .3
8.7
9 .0
9 .8
9.1
9 .4
10.0
10.7
10.7
10.4
11.5
7.3
8.1
8. 3
8 .5
d .8
8 .8
9 .0
8 .4
8.5
2-74
8.7
8 .8
720.6
736.8
757.2
781.7
9 .2
9 .5
10.2
9 .6
10.0
10.6
11.3
11.4
11.5
12.6
13.6
9 .4
10.1
9 .6
9 .9
10.4
10.9
11.0
10.9
11.4
11.3
9 ,2
9 .2
9 .4
10.0
9 .5
9 .8
10.2
10.7
10.6
10.5
10.8
10.5
9 .0
8 .9
9 .0
9 .1
9 .5
9 .8
9 .6
9 .3
9 .4
8.8
7 .3
6 .3
8 .9
9 .1
9 .4
9 .2
9 .2
8.7
7 .5
7.0
6 .0
8 .4
9 .8
9 .8
9 .9
9 .6
8 .8
8 .7
11.3
14.3
2 -T 2 " 3 = 7 7 ~ ^ “ 7 r
T - 7 T “ 2 -7 3
3 -7 3
4 -7 3
T-74
8 .7
8 .9
701.5
10.8
9 .2
4-73
1-74
672.1
683.•
9 .1
9 .3
9 .7
9 .3
9 .5
“ • r a r ~ ~ 4 - 6 9 " 1 - 7 Ö ' “ 2 = 7 ö ' 3 -7 Ö
4 -7 3
1 -7 1
2 -7 1
10.1
10.0
T - T I " "^*7 1
1 -7 2
799.0
816.3
823.9
840.6
869.1
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------ mTTTTT W ygTEE------- 1------------------------------------------------------HtRSUNAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES
C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L RA T E S OF C H A N G E
"ÖUÄRTER-
"BTUrTUKS* UF
DOLLARS
INITIAL QUARTER
TERMINAL
3-69
4-69
4-69
2.3
1-70
2.1
1.8
2-70
2.3
2.3
1-70
2-70
3-70
4-70
1-71
2-71
3-71
4-71
1-72
1ANNUAL
2-72
3-72
4-72
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
RATES
1-74
4 7 2 .2
474.3
477.5
2 .7
460.9
3-70
2.4
2 .5
2.8
2 .9
4-70
1.4
1.1
0 .9
0 .0
- 2 .8
1-71
2.9
3.0
3 .3
3.5
3.9
11.0
2-71
2 .9
3.0
3 .3
3 .4
3 .6
6 .9
3.1
477.5
490.1
493.8
497.7
3-71
3.0
3.1
3.3
3 .4
3.5
5.7
3.1
3.2
4-71
3.2
3.3
3.5
3 .7
3.8
5.6
3.8
4 .2
5.2
1-72
3.6
3.7
4 .0
4 .2
4 .4
5 .9
4.6
5 .2
6 .2
504.1
512.6
7.1
523.2
2-72
4 .0
4.2
4.5
4 .7
4.9
6.3
5.4
6 .0
6 .9
7 .7
8.4
3-72
4 .2
4 .4
4 .6
4 .9
5.1
6.3
5.5
6 .0
6 .7
7 .2
7.3
6 .3
4-72
4 .5
4 .7
5.0
5 .2
5.5
6 .6
5.9
6 .4
7.1
7.6
7.7
7.4
531.2
542.2
8.5
552.9
1-73
4 .8
f>.0
5 .2
5 .5
5.7
6 .7
6 .2
6 .7
7.3
7 .7
7.8
7 .6
8.3
8.1
2-73
4 .5
4 .7
4 .9
5.1
5.3
6.1
5.6
5 .9
6 .3
6.5
6 .3
5.8
5.7
4 .3
0 .6
3-73
4 .3
4 .4
4 .6
4 .8
4 .9
5.6
5.1
5 .4
5 .6
5.7
5 .5
4 .9
4 .6
3 .3
0 .9
1.2
553.7
555.4
4-73
3.6
3.7
3.8
3 .9
4 .0
4 .6
4 .0
4 .1
4 .2
4.1
3 .7
2 .9
2 .3
0.8
- 1 .6
- 2 .7
- 6 .4
1-74
3.1
3.2
3 .3
3.3
3.4
3 .8
3.3
3.3
3 .3
3.1
2 .6
1.8
1.1
- 0 .4
- 2 .4
- 3 .4
- 5 .6
- 4 .7
2-74
3.1
3.1
3.2
3 .3
3.3
3 .7
3.2
3 .2
3.2
3 .0
2 .6
1.8
1.2
0.1
- 1 .5
-2.0
- 3 .0
- 1 .3
2 .2
3-69
4-69
1-70
2-70
3-70
4-70
1-71
2-71
3-71
4-71
1-72
2-72
3-72
4-72
f-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
1-74
546.3
539.7
542.7
IKilTtÀL (JüÀftW
“P R E P A R E D W T É B E
AUGUST 22» 1974
15
rài
rE s F r V
ETO
ïk
CTF“5r. T O U T S
GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
---------------------------------------------------- — ---------—
_________________ ___________IN IT IA L Q
TERMINAL
Qu a r t e r
3-69
4-69
1-70
2-70
3-70
4-70
1-71
2-71
3-71
— ------------------------------------------------BILLIONSTT
U
A
1-72
4-71
R T E R ___________________________________________________ DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
2-72
3-72
4-72
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
1-74
4-69
- 1 5 .4
137.9
W O
- 1 4 .3 -1 3 .2
133*1
139.4
2-70
- 7 .7
- 3 .6
7.1
3-70
- 3 .2
1.3
9 .4
11.7
4-70
- 3 .6
- 0 .4
4 .3
3 .0
-5 .1
1-71
1 .3
5 .0
10.1
11.2
10.9
29.6
2-71
4 .0
7.6
12.4
13.7
1 4.4
2 5 .6
21 .8
3-71
3 .3
6 .3
10 .0
10.6
1 0.3
15.9
9 .6
- 1 .3
4-71
5.1
8 .0
11.4
12.1
12.2
17.0
13*1
9 .0
20.4
1-72
6 .8
9 .6
12.8
13.7
14.0
18.2
15.6
13.6
21.8
23.2
2-72
7.5
10.1
13.1
13.8
14.2
17.7
15.5
1 4 .0
19.6
19.1
15.2
3-72
8 .2
10 .6
13.4
14.1
14.4
17.5
15.6
14.3
18.6
18.0
15.6
15.9
4-72
9 .0
11.3
13.9
14.6
1 4 .9
17.7
16.0
15.1
18.7
18.3
16.7
17.5
19.0
139.2
137.4
146.6
194.0
193.9
160.8
169.4
179.9
\162.1
190.2
199*0
1-73
9 .7
11.9
14.3
15.0
15.4
17.9
16.5
15.8
18.9
18.6
17.5
18.2
19.4
19.8
2-73
9 .9
12.0
14.2
14.8
I5 ,l_
17.4
16.1
15.4
18.0
17.6
16.5
16.9
17.2
16.3
12.8
3-73
9 .8
11 .7
13.8
14.3
14.5
16.5
15.2
14.5
16.7
16.2
15.0
15.0
14.8
13.4
10.3
7 .8
16.4
18.2
17.5
17.8
18.2
18.0
17.4
19.8
-s 209.1
209*0
224.9
33.1
15.5
15.8
17.8
16.8
16.3
12.1
12.5
12.5
14.0
12.8
12.0
13.5
12.7
11.5
11.0
10.1
8 .5
5 .8
3.5
1 .4 - 2 2 .7
11.6
11.8
11.8
13.2
12.0
11.2
12.4
11.6
10.4
9 .9
9 .0
7 .4
5 .1
3 .3
1.8 -1 1 .0
1-70
2-70
3-70
4-70
1-71
2-71
3-71
4-71
1-72
2-72
3-72
4—72
1-73
Z—73
4-73
11.1
1 3.0
15.0
1-74
8 .8
10.5
2-74
8 .5
10.0
"* - W
3-73
4-73
210.9
2 .5
211.8
1-74
IN IT IA L QUARTER
G R O S S P R I V A T E DUM e 5 T1C I N V E S T M E N T IN t U N S I A N I 1958 D O L L A R S
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
IN IT IA L
TERMINAL
QUARTER
3-69
4-69
4-69
- 2 1 .2
1-70
- 1 9 .0 -1 6 .7
2-70
- 1 2 .1
1-70
2-70
3-70
4-70
1-71
2-71
3-71
BILL1UNS OF
DOLLARS
QUARTER
4-71
1-72
ANNUAL RATES
2*72
3-72
4-72
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
1-74
107.4
- 7 .1
102.6
3 .6
103.9
3-70
- 7 .5
- 2 .5
5 .5
4-70
- 8 .4
- 4 .9
- 0 .6
1-71
- 3 .6
0 .4
5 .2
2-71
*^1.1
2 .7
7.1
3-71
- 1 .8
1 .3
4 .7
4-71
0 .3
3 .4
6 .6
7 .2
7 .1
12.4
8.6
5 .4
19.1
1-72
1.9
4 .8
7 .9
8 .5
8 .7
13.3
10.7
9 .2
18.0
17.0
2-72
2 .9
5 .6
8.5
9 .1
9 .3
13.3
11.2
10.2
16.5
15.2
13.4
3-72
3 .6
6 .2
8.8
9 .4
9 .6
13.1
11.2
10.5
15.2
13.9
12.4
4-72
4 .3
6 .8
9 .3
9 .8
10.1
13.2
11.7
11.1
15.0
14.0
13.0
12.9
14.3
1-73
4 .8
7.1
9 .4
10.0
10.2
13.0
11.6
11.1
14.4
13.4
12.6
12.3
12.7
11.1
2-73
4 .9
7 .0
9.1
9 .6
9 .8
12.3
10.9
10.4
13.1
12.1
11.2
10.6
10.3
8 .4
7 .5
105.4
_
- 2 .7 - 1 1 .9
102.1
4 .8
24.7
8 .0
8 .2
19.9
15.3
4 .9
4 .3
10.3
3.7
5 .7
107.9
111.8
- 6 .6
109.9
114.8
119.4
123.2
126.6
11.5
130.9
134.4
136.3
5 .8
3-73
4 .5
6 .5
8.3
8 .7
8 .8
10.9
9 .6
9 .0
11.2
10.1
9 .0
8 .1
7 .3
5 .0
2 .1
- 1 .5
4-73
6 .0
7.9
9.8
10.3
10.5
12.6
11.6
11.2
13.4
12.7
12.1
11.9
12.0
11.4
11.5
14.4
32.9
149.8
1-74
3 .5
5.2
6 .8
7 .0
6 .9
8 .6
7.3
6 .6
8.0
6 .9
5 .7
4 .6
3 .5
1 .5
- 0 .8
- 2 .9
-3 .6 -3 0 .1
133.3
2-74
2.9
4 .4
5 .8
5 .9
5 .8
7.2
6 .0
5 .2
6.4
5 .2
4 .0
2 .8
1.7
- 0 .3
- 2 .4
- 4 .4
- 5 .4 -20.1
- 8 .7
3-69
4-69
1-70
2-70
3-70
4-70
1-71
2-71
3-71
4-71
1-72
2-72
3-7Z
4-72
1-73
2-73
3-73
1-74
139.8
4-73
130.3
IN IT IA L QUARTER
> R f PARCO' B V F E D E R A I R E S E R V E B A N K O F S T •'T O O T ?
AUGUST 22 . 1974
1 6
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS A N IT T E R V IC E S IN CURRENT DOLLARS
____
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________________
TERMINAL
B iLLIOWSH P T “
DOLLARS
IN IT IA L QUARTER
“ OOWTER
3-69
4—69
4—69
4 ,6
1-70
2-70
4-70
1-71
2-71
3-71
4-71
1-72
2-72
3-72
______________
4-72
1-T3
2-73
3-73
4-73
1-70
5.4
6.1
3.6
3.1
0 .2
3-70
4.1
3.9
2.9
5 .6
4-70
4 .4
4 .3
3.8
5.6
1-71
5.1
5.2
2-71
5 .2
5.3
5.2
5 .7
5.6
_______________________________________________
220.3
223.3
5 .6
2 27.9
7 .0
8 .5
6 ./
7.3
6.1
6 .7
7 .0
7 .5
7 .0
7 .8
7.5
7 .8
8.4
8 .4
9 .6
11.3
231.3
2 3 9 .7
242.1
1-72
7.1
7 .4
7.5
8.6
9 .1
9 .8
10.2
11.6
13.5
15.7
2-72
6 8
.
7.1
7.2
8.1
6 .4
8 .9
9 .0
9 .7
10.4
9 .9
4 .4
3-7?
6.4
7.4
7.6
7 .9
7 .8
8 .2
8 .2
7.2
3 .2
4-72
6 .9
7.1
7.1
7.9
6.1
8 .4
8 .8
9 .0
8 .5
6 .2
7.1
12.3
1-73
7.1
7.3
7.4
8.1
8 .3
8 .6
8.6
9 .0
9 .2
8 .8
7.1
8 .1
11.2
10.1
2-73
7.1
7.2
7.3
7 .9
8.2
8.4
8 .4
8 .7
8 .8
8 .4
7.0
7 .7
9 .6
8 .3
291.1
253.0
299.1
2.1
262.6
269.0
6 .5
273.3
2 76.9
3-73
7.0
7.1
7.2
7 .7
7.9
8 .1
d .l
8 .3
8.4
8 .0
6 .7
7 .2
8.5
7 .3
6 .0
5 .4
4-73
7 .4
7.6
7.7
8 .2
8.4____8 .6
8.7
8 .9
9 .0
8 .8
7 .8
8 .4
9 .7
9 .1
0 .7
9 .0
14.4
1-74
7.8
8 .0
8.1
8 .6
8 .8
9 .1
9 .4
9 .6
9 .4
8 .6
9 .3
10.5
10.1
10.1
1 1 .4
14,9
14.6
9.6
8 .9
9 .5
10.6
10.3
10 .4
11 .4
13.9
1 3 .0
9 .1
9 .3
8 .0
>-¿9
21 4 .0
217.3
6.6
4-71
2-74
1-7»
217.2
2-70
3-71
3-TO
9 .3
9 .6
9 .7
206.4
296.3
304.4
11.4
T W V - T = v r - J=v r F 7 0 ~*-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 " ^ 72 " I^T 3 2-73 3-^73 4^73 1-74
---------------------------------------------- -----------INIt i a l QUARTER-----------------------------------------------------GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OH GOODS AND SERVIC ES IN CONSTANT 195* DOLLARS
______________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________________________
TERMINAL
.rourrar
3-69
4-69
"BILLIONS OF
IN IT IA L QUARTER
4-69
i-70
2-70
3-70
4-70
1-71
2-71
3-71
- 1 .4
4-71
1-72
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
2-72
3-72
4-72
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
1-74
144.6
2-70
- 5 .5
- 7 .5
- a .7
3-70
- 4 .9
- 6 .0
- 6 .0
—3 . 1
- 0 .6
1
- 6 .2
0
- 3 .8
142.3
139.1
130.0
4-70
- 4 .0
- 4 .7
- 4 .2
- 1 .9
1-71
-3 .5
- 3 .9
- 3 .4
-1 .5
- 0 .7
- 0 .9
2-71
- 3 .0
- 3 .3
- 2 .7
—1.2
-0 .5
-0 .4
3-71
- 1 .9
- 2 .0
-l.?
4-71
- 0 .8
- 0 .7
0.1
1-72
-0 .4
- 0 .2
0.5
1.9
2-72
- 0 .3
-0 .2
O.i»
1.7
1.7
137.0
137.9
0 .0
137.9
1.2
1.8
3.2
6 .6
2 .7
3 .5
5 .0
7 .6
8.6
2 .8
3.5
4 .6
6 .2
6 .0
3.4
2 .4
2 .9
3 .6
4 .6
3 .9
1.7
0.0
139.7
142.6
143.0
143.0
3-72
—O.H
- 0 .7
- 0 .1
1.4
1.6
2.1
2 .5
1.5
-0 .7
- 2 .8
- 5 .4
4-72
- 0 .4
- 0 .4
0.2
1.1
1.6
1.9
2.3
2 .6
1.9
0.3
- 0 .7
-1.1
3 .4
1-73
- 0 .2
-0 .1
0.4
1.3
1.7
2 .0
2 .4
2 .7
2.1
0.8
0.2
0 .3
3 .3
2-73
- 0 .2
-0.1
0.3
1.1
1.5
1 .7
2 .0
2 .3
1.7
0 .6
0.1
0.1
2 .0
1 .3
- 0 .6
3-73
- 0 .2
-0.2
0.3
1.0
1.4
1.5
1.8
2 .0
1.4
0.4
- 0 .0
-0 .1
1.3
0 .7
- 0 .6
- 0 .6
4-73
0.1
0.2
).6
1.3
1.7
1.9
2.1
2 .3
1.9
1.1
0 .8
0.9
2 .2
1 .9
1.5
2 .5
1-74
0. L
0,2
0.6
1.3
1.6
1.8
2 .0
2 .2
1.8
1.1
0 .8
0.9
2 .0
1 .7
1 .3
2 .0
3.2
0 .8
2-74
0.1
0.2
0.6
1.5
1.6
1.8
2 .0
1.6
0.9
0.6
0 .7
1.6
1.3
0 .9
1.3
2 .0
0 .1
- 0 .5
3-69
4-69
1-7Ü
3-70
4-70
i- 7 l
2-71
3-71
4-71
1-72
2-72
3-72
4-72
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
1-74
2-70
141.0
143.0
3 .1
144.1
143.9
143.7
149.7
5.7
146.0
149.0
W fP À Â T Ô BV FÉOÊAÀL &ESËAVÊ fiÀ N k Ö F 5 7 ~ L Ö Ü IS
AUGUST 22» 1974
17
0 1»POSABLI »»frRSUNAL INCOME T^ CURTTENT OOLLAK*
COMPOUNOCO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
-T O W » * — v u a* i t
k
_3_-69
4-69
------------------------------------------------------------mjTJAl_OU**Tfft____________________________________________ W » !
4— 6 9
1-70
¿-70
3-70
4-70
1-7 1
2-71
n v n r i l V IT E S
3-71 4-71
1-72
2-7 2
3-72
4-72
1-73
2-73
3 - 73
4-73
8.3
- l ~7° „
2-70
--
1-74
696*1
7*9___ ___________________________ ____ _____________________________________________________________
6 6 9 .2
9.*>
669*0
ij.3
1 3 . 0 _________________________________________ __________ _____________
*- 7 0 _____9^2____ 9 ,5
10.5
* - 7 0 ____7j ,9____ 7 .8
7 .9
8 .0 _______________________________________________ _____________________________
5 .4
702*4
2*8__________________ ____________________________________ ________________________________________________________________ 707*2
1-71
8.7
B .7
9.Q
7 .7
7 .6
12*7___________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________________ 728.6
2-71
fl.7
8 .8
9 .0
b.O
8 .0
10.7
8 . 8 _______________________________________________________
744*1
7 .2
7 .0
8 .4
6 .3
3 .9 _________________________ _________________
751*9
6 .9
6 .7
7 .7
6 .1
4*8
5.7 _________ __________ ___________________________________________________________________ 761.8
3-7
1 8.1
4-71
7.8
d .Q_____8,1
7 . ft
7.8
1-7 2_____ 7.7____ 7 .7 ____ 7.7____ 6 .9 ____ 6 .7
7.6
6 .3
5*5
6.3
6*9 774*7
2-72
7.9
7. 7
7.7
7.1
t.9
7.7
6 .7
6 .2
6 .9
7*5
8 *1 _______________________________________________________________________ 790.0
3-72
7.9
7.8
7.9
7 .3
7.2
7 .9
7.1
6 .7
7.4
8 .0
8 .6
9 .0 _________________________________________________________
>07*1
4-72
a .*
6 .5
3 .to
8 .2
8 .2
8 .9
8 .3
8 .3
9.1
10.0
il.I
12.5
16*2________________________________________________________ 838.1
1-73
9 .0
9 .1
9 .2
8 .8
8 .9
9 .6
9 .2
9 .3
10.2
H .2
12 .2
13.6
16.0
2-73
9.1
9 .2
9 .3
9 .J
9 .1
9 .7
9.4
9 .5
10.3
11.1
11*9
12.9
14.3
13*3
10*8________________________________________692*1
3-73
9 .2
9 .2
9 .4
9 .1
9 .2
9 .8
9 .5
9 .6
10.3
11.0
11.6
12.4
13.2
12*2
10.5
10*1
__________________________913.9
4-73
9 ,3
9 .4
9.5
9 .3
9 .4
9 .9
9 .7
9 .8
10.4
11.0
11.6
12.2
12*9
12.1
10 .9
10*9
11.6________________________ 939.4
1-74
9 .1
9 .1
9.2
9 .0
9 .0
9 .5
9 .3
9 .3
9 .9
10.3
10.8
11.2
11*5
10*6
9 .3
6 .8
2-74
9 .0
9 .0
9.1
8 .8
8 .9
9.3
9.1
9 .1
9.6
10.0
10.3___ 10.6
10.8
10.0
8 .8
8 .3
7.7
“4=71
T = 7 2 ' 7-72
1 = 7 2 .T F 7 Z
T=7T ■
7-73
“3-71
5-69
• * - 6 9 " r-=Tö"" 2F7<r ~r-7T5~ ^ T S T=7T~ ‘7-71
15*8________________________________________________ 669*9
8.2
4*9________________ 950*6
5 .9
6*9
966*5
T F T T “'T - 7 * --------
INI T I A L Q U A R T E R
OI S P O S A R L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E n r C W ß T A N T 1958 O O L L A R S
C O M P O U N D E D A NNUAL R A T E S OF C H A N G E
-
b I L L 4O k * O P
OOLLARS
ANNu a l HATES
IN I T I A L Q U A R T E R
TERM INAL
giiAirrBs
3-69
4-69
1-70
2- 70
3-70
4-70
1-71
2-71
3-71
4-71
1-72
2-72
3-72
4-72
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
1-74
521*2
4-69
¿ .0
1-70
?. 7
2.3
524*2
1
5.7
9.1
o
t
I**
*
j . Ì
6.7
4.4
4-70
3.1
3.1
3 .4
O.o
- 3 .1
1-71
4.0
*♦•2
4.7
3. 2
2.7
2-71
4.1
4.3
4.7
3 .6
3.3
6.6
4 .5
3-71
3.7
3.3
4.1
3.1
2.7
4.7
2 .8
l.l
4-71
3.7
3.2
4.0
3.2
2.9
4.5
3.1
2.4
1
«M
©
4 .8
4.7
535*6
541*6
537*4
546*8
8.8
954.9
556.4
S61.6
3.8
566.2
1-7 2
3.7
*.7
J.9
3. 2
3.0
4.3
3.2
2.7
3.6
3.3
2-72
3.8
i.9
4. 1
3.5
3.3
4.4
3.6
3.4
4.1
4.3
5.3
3 -72
4 .0
V. 1
4. 3
3.7
3. 7
4.7
4.0
3.9
4 «6
4.8
5.6
5.9
581.9
600*1
573.6
4-72
4.7
4.Ö
5. Û
4.6
4.7
5 .7
5.2
5.4
6.2
6.9
8.1
9.5
13.1
1-73
5.1
5.2
5.5
5. 1
5.2
6.2
5.9
6. 1
6.9
7.6
8.6
9.8
11.7
10.4
2-73
4.9
5.0
i.2
4.9
4.9
5. 3
5.4
5.5
6.2
6.6
7.3
7.8
8*4
6.1
2 .0
3-73
4.7
4.Û
5.0
4.7
4.7
5.4
5.1
5.2
5.7
6.0
6.4
6.7
6«9
4.9
2.2
2.3
4-73
4.5
4.0
4.7
4.4
4.4
5.0
4.7
4.7
5.1
5.3
5.6
5.7
5.6
3.8
1.7
1.5
0.7
1-74
3.7
3.H
3.9
3.5
3.5
4.0
3.6
3.5
3.8
3 .8
3.8
3.6
3.2
1.4
-0.8
-1.7
-3.7
-7.8
2-74
3.3
3.3 __ 3^4
J.J
2_^9 __ 3 j ,_4____3^0 ___ 2 . 8 ___3_._0
2.9
2.9
2.6
2.1
0.4
- 1 .5
-2.4
-3.9
- 6 .1
-4.4
4-71
1-Y2
2 -f2
3-7F
4-72
1=7jr
2 ~ T T
3- n
4-75
1-74
3- 6 9 "4=69"' ì - 7 0 ~
2- 70
3- 7 0
4-70
1-71
2-71
3-71
619*1
616.2
621*6
622.9
610.3
603.5
P r e P A r E O ' I V FEOEiftlL R E S é r v ë ' ft«ÏK O F ST. 1 0 0 1 ?
AUGUST 22* 19T4
CïffifiFÔRATE P R O F I T S A F T E R T A X E S *
C O H P G U N O E P A NNUAL RATES CF C H A N G E
TERMINAL
QUARTER
IN IT IA L QUARTER
3-69
4-69
4-69
1-70
4-70
1-71
2-71
3-71
4-71
1-72
2-72
3-72
4-72
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
4 2 .1
4 0 .8
--10.8 -11.8
2-70
-•11.3 -1 2 .0 -12.1
4-70
3-70
- 9 .8
1-70
3-70
2-70
f t l U n W S Or
DOLLARS
ANNUAL KATÉ5
1-74
- 7 .6
- 6 .9
- 4 .4
39.5
39 .9
4.1
36 .7
-12*2 -12.8 -1 3 .2 -1 3 .7 -28.4
1-71
- 2 .2
- 0 .6
2.5
7.8
9 .8
68.3
2-71
2.7
5 .0
8.7
14.7
18.4
52.4
3-71
4 .9
7.1
10.7
15.9
19.0
»-71
6 .4
8 .7
11.9
16.5
19.2
1-72
9.8
11.1
14.4
18.8
21.4
2-72
9.7
11.8
14.8
18.7
4 1 .8
37 .9
4 5 .9
41.0
29.1
20 .9
4 7 .5
35.4
26*0
20.4
19*9
35.0
27.8
24 .5
26.4
33.3
21.0
32.1
25.8
2 3 .0
23.7
25.6
4 9 .7
5 3 .4
55 .7
18.4
98 .4
3-72
10.6
12.6
15.4
19.0
21.0
30.4
25.0
22.5
22.9
24.0
19.6
20 .8
4-72
12.4
14.4
17.2
20.6
22.6
31.1
26.5
24.7
25.5
27.0
24.9
2 8 .3
36.3
t 1-73
15.5
17.7
20.6
24.1
26.3
34.5
30 .8
29.8
31.3
33.8
33.9
39.5
49.9
63 .1
6 4 .9
71.5
2-73
15.4
1 7.5
20*1
23.3
25.2
32.4
28.9
27.8
28.8
30.4
29.8
32.9
37.1
37.5
14.7
3-73
14.0
15.8
18.0
20.7
22. 3
26.3
24.9
23.5
23*9
24.5
23.1
24.0
24.8
21.2
4 .0
- 5 .8
4-73
13.2
14.8
16.9
19.3
20.5
25.9
2 2 .6
21.2
21.2
21.4
19.7
20 .0
19.8
16.0
3 .2
- 2 .2
1 .7
1-74
16.3
18.0
20.2
22. 7
21.2
29.5
24.7
29.8
26*3
2 7 .0
26 .2
27.4
28.5
27.0
19.0
20.5
5 4 .3
• 2 .7
2-74
15.5
17.1
19.0
21.3
2 2 .«
27.4
24.7
23 .4
23.9
24.3
23.3
2 4 .0
24.4
22. 9
1 5 .5
15.7
2 1 .9
3 6 .7
2 .4
3-69
4-69
1-7Ô
2-70
3-70
4-70
1-71
2-71
1-71
4-71
1-72
2-72
3-72
4-71
1—75
2-71
5-71
4-71
1-74
7 4 .0
7 2 .«
73.2
85.1
8 5 .6
IN IT IA L QUARTE!
* NATIONAL INCOME B A SIS
Tw w w n r » ? F g K i A r m m v t
SEPTEN8ER
20«
m w
o» T
1974
SOURCES OF DATA
National Income and Product Accounts Data
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Historical Data Sources:
1970-73:
1968-69:
1966-67:
1964-65:
1929-63:
Survey of Current Business, July 1974
purvey of Current Business', July 1972
Survey of Current Business', July 1970
Survey of Current business', July 1968
Iflie National Income and Product Accounts of the
United States, 1^29-65, Statistical Tables
(available from any U.S. Department of Ccaimerce
Field Office or from the Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402).
19
fm w rr
The Trend of Output
Ratio Scale
Ratio Scale
Billions of Dollars
1952
1954
Billions of Dollars
1956
1958
1960
1962
1964
1966
1968
1970
1972
1974
Sh ad e d a rea s represent periods of business recessions as defined by the N atio nal Bureau of Econom ic Research.
J The trend of output was determ ined from the regression lnQ=5.7385+.0092t, which w as estim ated from
qu arterly data for the 1/1947 - 11/1971 period. The coefficient (.0092) is the estimate of the trend rate of increase
of output for the period. The line has been extrapolated beyond 11/1971.
,_2 G ro ss N a tio n a l Product at 1958 prices.
20
@FedFRASER