View original document

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

October 1993

N ational
Economic
Trends
Is Investment Falling
Relative to Output?
A conventional method of assessing a nation’s in­
vestment performance is to examine its ratio of gross
private domestic investment to gross national product
(GNP). By this measure, U.S. performance has been
dismal in recent years, averaging only 13.6 percent so
far in the 1990s, its lowest value since World War n.
Investment performance would look much better than
this measure indicates, however, if we take into ac­
count the decline in the relative price of investment
goods or broaden the definition of investment to inide purchases of consumer durables. Such purchasrepresent investment because they produce services
over future periods.
The accompanying chart shows two measures of
investment (broadly defined) relative to GNP. The
dashed line is the conventional measure in the sense
that it is calculated by using investment and
GNP both in current dollars. The solid line is
the ratio calculated with investment and GNP
expressed in 1980 dollars. The two lines
move differently when the price of investment
goods rises or falls relative to overall prices.
The widening difference between the two
ratios since 1980, with the real ratio above
the nominal ratio, indicates that the prices of
investment goods have been falling relative to
GNP prices.
The chart shows that, as conventionally
measured in current dollars, the ratio of in­
vestment to GNP was 25.6 percent in the
1970s, dropped to 25.2 percent in the 1980s,
and has been a mere 21.8 percent so far in the
1990s. When real investment is compared

O

with real GNP, the ratio rose from 26.1 percent in the
1970s to 27 percent in the 1980s, and is running at
26.4 percent so far in the 1990s. Even with a recession
and a sluggish recovery, the contribution of real invest­
ment to GNP in the 1980s and early 1990s more than
matches that in earlier decades. Thus, despite the
conventional wisdom, when we take into account the
relative decline in the prices of investment goods and
also define investment to include consumer durables,
we find the U.S. investment performance compares
favorably with the historical record.
Some say that such comparisons over long periods
are questionable because the development of new
technologies — for example, computers — makes
measurement difficult. Others, however, note that
quality increases and real price declines of computers
in the 1980s and early 1990s might be greater than
officially measured, which, by implication, would
understate real investment during this period.
— William G. Dewald

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing
Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling 314-444-8809.
Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal
computer and a modem at 314-621-1824.



C onsum er P rice Index —All Urban C onsum ers
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1987

1988

1989

1990

Percent

1991

1992

1993

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

1982-84=100

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93
138.8

2-92

2.6

3-92

3.5

4.4

4-92

3.5

4.0

3.5

139.3
139.7
139.9

5-92

3.1

3.2

2.6

1.7

6-92

3.0

3.1

2.6

2.2

2.6

7-92

3.1

3.1

2.8

2.6

3.0

3.5

8-92

3.0

3.0

2.8

2.6

2.9

3.0

2.6

9-92

2.8

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.2

1.7

10-92

3.1

3.2

3.0

2.9

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.5

5.2

11-92

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.8

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.9

2.6

12-92

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.8

3.2

2.1

140.2
140.6
140.9
141.1
141.7
142.0
1.7

142.2

1-93

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.9

3.4

3.9

6.1

2-93

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.6

4.0

3.6

4.0

5.2

4.3

3-93

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.6

3.2

3.4

4.0

3.0

1.7

4-93

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.8

3.6

3.8

4.3

3.7

3.4

5.1

5-93

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.5

3.3

3.4

3.8

3.2

2.8

3.4

1.7

6-93

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.9

3.1

2.5

2.1

2.2

0.8

0.0

7-93

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.3

1.9

1.9

0.8

0.4

0.8

8-93

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.9

2.4

2.1

2.2

1.5

1.4

2.1

3.4

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93




142.9
143.4
143.6
144.2
144.4
144.4
144.5
144.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 14, 1993

2

Consumer Price Index - Food
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

1982-84=100

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93
137.5

2-92

3.6

3-92

4.0

4.5

4-92

2.9

2.6

0.9

5-92

0.9

0.0

-2.2

-5.1

6-92

0.9

0.2

-1.2

-2.2

0.9

7-92

0.6

0.0

-1.1

-1.7

0.0

-0.9

8-92

1.5

1.2

0.5

0.4

2.3

3.1

7.2

9-92

1.8

1.5

1.0

1.0

2.6

3.2

5.4

3.5

10-92

1.6

1.3

0.9

0.9

2.1

2.4

3.5

1.7

0.0

11-92

1.5

1.3

0.9

0.9

1.9

2.1

2.9

1.5

0.4

0.9

12-92

1.7

1.5

1.2

1.2

2.1

2.3

3.0

2.0

1.4

2.2

3.5

1-93

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.5

2.4

2.6

3.2

2.4

2.2

2.9

4.0

4.4

2-93

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.6

2.3

2.5

3.0

2.3

2.1

2.6

3.2

3.1

1.7

3-93

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.6

2.3

2.4

2.8

2.2

2.0

2.4

2.8

2.6

1.7

1.7

138.0
138.1
137.5
137.6
137.5
138.3
138.7
138.7
138.8
139.2
139.7
139.9
140.1

4-93

2.0

1.9

1.7

1.8

2.5

2.6

3.0

2.5

2.4

2.8

3.1

3.0

2.6

3.0

4.4

5-93

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.7

2.9

3.2

2.8

2.7

3.1

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.8

4.8

5.2

6-93

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.5

2.1

2.2

2.5

2.0

1.8

2.1

2.2

2.0

1.6

1.5

1.4

0.0

7-93

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.9

2.0

2.3

1.8

1.6

1.8

2.0

1.7

1.3

1.2

1.1

0.0

-2.5

0.0

8-93

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.6

2.0

2.1

2.3

2.0

1.8

2.0

2.1

1.9

1.6

1.6

1.5

0.9

-0.6

1.7

3.5

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

140.6
141.2
-5.0

140.6
140.6
141.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 14, 1993

Consumer Price Index - Energy
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

1982-84=100

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

2-92

-4.6

3-92

-0.6

3.6

4-92

0.8

3.6

3.6

5-92

2.1

4.4

4.8

6.1

6-92

4.8

7.3

8.6

11.1

16.4

7-92

5.4

7.5

8.5

10.2

12.4

8.5

8-92

3.9

5.4

5.8

6.3

6.4

1.8

-4.5

9-92

3.4

4.6

4.8

5.0

4.8

1.2

-2.3

0.0

10-92

3.7

4.8

5.0

5.2

5.0

2.3

0.4

2.9

6.0

11-92

3.6

4.5

4.6

4.8

4.6

2.3

0.9

2.7

4.1

2.3

12-92

3.0

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.6

1.6

0.2

1.5

1.9

0.0

-2.3

1-93

3.3

4.0

4.1

4.1

3.9

2.2

1.2

2.3

2.9

1.9

1.7

5.9

2-93

2.6

3.3

3.2

3.2

2.9

1.3

0.3

1.2

1.4

0.3

-0.4

0.6

-4.5

3-93

3.0

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.4

2.1

1.3

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.7

3.1

1.7

8.4

4-93

3.0

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.3

2.1

1.4

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.9

2.9

1.9

5.3

5-93

2.1

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.1

0.8

0.1

0.6

0.7

0.0

-0.4

0.0

-1.4

-0.4

-4.5 -10.9

6-93

1.8

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.7

0.6

-0.1

0.3

0.4

-0.3

-0.7

-0.4

-1.6

-0.9

-3.8

-6.7

-2.3

7-93

1.7

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.6

0.5

-0.1

0.3

0.3

-0.3

-0.6

-0.3

-1.3

-0.7

-2.8

-4.5

-1.1

0.0

8-93

1.3

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.1

0.1

-0.5

-0.2

-0.2

-0.8

-1.2

-1.0

-2.0

-1.5

-3.4

-4.8

-2.7

-2.9

-5.6

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

100.7
101.0




101.3
101.8
103.1
103.8
103.4
103.4
103.9
104.1
103.9
104.4
104.0
104.7
2.3

104.9
103.9
103.7
103.7
103.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 14, 1993

3

P roducer P rice Index - F in ish ed Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1987

1988

1989

1990

Percent

1991

1992

1993

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

1982 1 100

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93
122.2

2-92

3.0

3-92

3.0

4-92

3.0

3.0

3.0

5-92

3.2

3.3

3.5

4.0

6-92

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.5

3.0

7-92

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.3

1.5

0.0

8-92

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.0

1.3

0.5

1.0

9-92

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.2

1.7

1.3

2.0

3.0

10-92

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.6

1.2

1.6

2.0

1.0

11-92

1.9

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.0

0.6

0.7

0.6

-0.5

-1.9

12-92

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.2

0.8

0.5

0.6

0.5

-0.3

-1.0

0.0

1-93

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.2

1.0

1.1

1.2

0.7

0.6

2.0

3.9

2-93

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.7

2.9

4.4

4.9

3-93

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.7

1.9

2.1

1.9

2.1

3.2

4.3

4.4

3.9

4-93

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.9

3.9

4.9

5.3

5.4

6.9

5-93

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.2

2.4

3.1

3.7

3.7

3.2

2.9

-0.9

6-93

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.5

1.6

2.1

2.4

2.1

1.5

0.6

-2.4

-3.8

7-93

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.6

1.8

1.5

0.8

0.0

-2.2

-2.8

-1.9

8-93

1.2

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.3

0.5

0.6

0.1

-0.6

-1.5

-3.5

-4.4

-4.7

-7.4

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

3.0

122.5




122.8
123.2
123.5
123.5
123.6
123.9
124.0
123.8
123.8
124.2
124.7
125.1
125.8
125.7
125.3
125.1
124.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 10, 1993

Civilian E m ploym en t and U n em p lo y m en t Rate
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

126

119

112

105

1— 1 — '— I 1 — '— I 1 — 1 T
—
— —
— —
—
1987

1988

1989

1992

1990

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Thousands of
Parsons

Initial Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

2-92

1.2
1.7

2.9

1.4

2.1

1.6

1.0

1.4

0.8

0.0

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

0.6

6-92

8-92

2.6

5-92

7-92

3.1

4-92

6-92

-0.8

3-92

5-92

116,962
117,264
117,518
117,580
-0.7

117,510

7-92

1.2

1.6

1.2

0.7

0.7

2.2

8-92

1.1

1.4

1.1

0.7

0.7

1.4

0.6

9-92

0.9

1.1

0.8

0.4

0.4

0.7

0.0

-0.6

10-92

0.7

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.2

0.5

-0.1

-0.5

-0.4

11-92

1.1

1.3

1.0

0.8

0.8

1.1

0.9

1.0

1.7

3.9

12-92

1.2

1.4

1.2

1.0

1.1

1.4

1.2

1.4

2.0

3.2

2.5

1-93

0.9

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.9

1.3

0.0

-2.4

2-93

1.1

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.5

2.0

1.3

0.7

3.9

3-93

1.1

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.4

1.8

1.3

0.9

2.5

1.2

4-93

0.9

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.8

1.0

1.2

0.7

0.3

1.2

-0.2

-1.5

5-93

1.4

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.7

2.0

2.3

2.1

2.0

3.1

2.8

3.6

9.0

6-93

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.7

2.0

1.7

1.5

2.3

2.0

2.2

4.1

-0.5

7-93

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.4

2.1

1.7

1.9

3.0

0.1

0.&

8-93

1.4

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.8

2.1

1.9

1.8

2.4

2.1

2.3

3.3

1.5

2.5

4.2

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93




117,722
117,780
117,724
117,687
118,064
118,311
118,071
118,451
118,565
118,416
119,273
119,219
119,301
119,710

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Septeaber 3, 1993

Payroll E m ploym ent
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

Millions of Persons

125

125

115

115

105

105

95

85

75

65

-1 T
—
1987

1988

1989

1993

1990

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

2-92

0.6
1.1

1 .7

6-92

7-92

8-92

Thousands of
Persons

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

2.0

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

1.3

4-92

5-92

-0.1

3-92

4-92

108,045
108,164
108,347

5-92

1.2

1.6

1.7

1.4

6-92

0.9

1.1

1.1

0.6

-0.2

7-92

1.0

1.2

1.2

1.0

0.7

1.7

8-92

0.9

1.1

1.0

0.7

0.5

0.9

0.1

9-92

0.9

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.8

0.4

0.7

10-92

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.9

0.7

1.0

1.3

11-92

1.0

1.1

1.1

0.9

0.8

1.0

0.9

1.1

1.4

1.5

12-92

1.0

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.2

1.1

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.8

1-93

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

108,470
108,454
108,605
108,615
108,674
108,789
108,921
109,079
109,235

2-93

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.6

3.4

3-93

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

4-93

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.7

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

1.5

2.8

5-93

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

1.9

2.7

2.6

6-93

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.5

2.0

1.5

0.5

7-93

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.7

2.1

1.8

1.4

2.3

8-93

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.3

1.6

1.2

0.8

0.9

-0.4

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93




109,539
0.3

109,565
109,820
110,058
110,101
110,312
110,273

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3, 1993

Service-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Month

Terminal
Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

2-92

0.5

3-92

1.1

1.7

4-92

1.7

2.3

2.8

5-92

1.8

2.2

2.4

1.9

6-92

1.5

1.8

1.8

1.3

0.7

7-92

1.7

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.5

8-92

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.8

1.4

9-92

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.8

1.5

1.7

10-92

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.8

1.9

11-92

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.8

1.7

1.8

1.9

1.9

12-92

1.7

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.9

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

1-93

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.0

2-93

1.9

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.9

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.6

2.6

3.3

3-93

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.2

1.1

4-93

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.6

4.1

5-93

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.9

2.7

3.5

3.0

6-93

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.9

2.2

1.5

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.9

2.4

2.2

2.8

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.1

2.3

1.9

1.5

1.5

0.2

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

Thousands of
Persons

7-93

7-93

2.1

84,779
84,897

2.2

2.1

85,096

2.1

85,233

2.1

85,282
2.3

2.3

85,445
85,542

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

1-92

8-93

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

85,662

2.2

85,794

2.2

85,926
2.4

86,094
86,234
86,470
86,549
86,840
87,052
87,160
87,364
87,379

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3, 1993

Goods-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

Initial Honth
Persons
9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Thousands of
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93
23,266

2-92

-2.2

3-92

-1.1

0.1

4-92

-1.0

-0.4

-0.8

5-92

-0.9

-0.5

-0.8

-0.7

6-92

-1.4

-1.2

-1.6

-2.0

-3.3

7-92

-1.3

-1.1

-1.4

-1.6

-2.0

-0.6

23,267
23,251
23,237
23,172
23,160

8-92

-1.7

-1.7

-2.0

-2.3

-2.8

-2.5

-4.4

9-92

-1.9

-1.9

-2.2

-2.4

-2.9

-2.7

-3.8

23,073
-3.1

23,012

10-92

-1.8

-1.7

-2.0

-2.2

-2.5

-2.3

-2.8

-2.0

-0.9

11-92

-1.6

-1.6

-1.7

-1.9

-2.1

-1.8

-2.1

-1.3

-0.4

0.0

12-92

-1.5

-1.4

-1.6

-1.7

-1.9

-1.6

-1.8

-1.1

-0.5

-0.3

-0.5

1-93

-1.3

-1.2

-1.4

-1.4

-1.5

-1.3

-1.4

-0.7

-0.1

0.1

0.2

0.8

22,995
22,995
22,985
23,001

2-93

-1.0

-0.8

-0.9

-0.9

-1.0

-0.7

-0.7

0.0

0.6

1.0

1.3

2.2

3.6

3-93

-1.1

-1.0

-1.1

-1.1

-1.1

-0.9

-0.9

-0.4

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.4

-2.7

4-93

-1.1

-1.1

-1.1

-1.2

-1.2

-1.0

-1.0

-0.6

-0.2

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

-0.4

-2.3

-1.9

5-93

-1.0

-0.9

-1.0

-1.0

-1.0

-0.8

-0.8

-0.4

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

-1.1

-0.3

1.4

6-93

-1.1

-1.0

-1.1

-1.1

-1.2

-1.0

-1.0

-0.7

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.6

-1.7

-1.3

-1.0

-3.3

7-93

-1.0

-1.0

-1.0

-1.0

-1.1

-0.9

-0.9

-0.6

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-1.3

-0.9

-0.6

-1.5

0.4

8-93

-1.1

-1.1

-1.1

-1.2

-1.2

-1.0

-1.1

-0.8

-0.6

-0.5

-0.6

-0.6

-0.8

-1.5

-1.3

-1.1

-1.9

-1.2

-2.8

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93




23,069
23,016
22,980
23,006
22,941
22,948
22,894

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 3, 1993

Change in th e E m p loym en t Cost Index and Its C om ponents
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

\

\

\

>

/
1

Benefits

Percent

1
1

Percent

\

/

...

i
i
i

U \.
\

-

►

Tot al Compensati )n

- S '
*
! /

6

•

/

\

V
a#

-

*/

'

X

............

4

...

Wages and Salaries

\
\
-

1

i

1

1

1987

|

1 ") ..-.i

1988

|

i

1

1989

1

1

k

T

1990

|

1

1

1991

1

1

1

1992

1 1 2

1
1993

Total compensation is the sum of benefits and wages and salaries for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation.
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
ierninal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

September 1989 = 100
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93
97.8

<*-88

5.1

1-89

4.6

4.2

2-89

4.6

4.3

4.5

3-89

4.8

4.7

4.9

5.3

4-89

4.8

4.7

4.9

5.1

4.8

1-90

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.6

2-90

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.3

98.8
99.9
101.2
102.4
103.8
5.1

105.1

3-90

4.9

4.8

4.9

5.0

4.9

5.0

4.7

4.3

4-90

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.0

3.8

1-91

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.6

2-91

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.7

4.9

3-91

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.6

4.7

4.4

4-91

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.1

3.7

1-92

4.6

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.2

4.0

3.8

4.0

2-92

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.5

3.4

2.9

3-92

4.4

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.0

3.2

4-92

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.2

3.4

3.5

1-93

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.6

3.9

4.2

2-93

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.5

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

106.2
107.2
108.4
109.7
110.9
111.9
113.0
113.8
114.7
115.7
116.9
117.9

Data are for the last aonth of quarter.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 27, 1993

8

In d u strial P rod u ction
Seasonally Adjusted
1987=100

1987=100

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

2-92

6.5
7.1

5.8

6.4

5.4

6.4

3.5

2.0

1.5

-1.7

4.5

3.5

3.4

1.9

0.6

3.5

2.5

2.3

0.8

-0.4

3.4

2.5

1.5

1.1

-0.2

-1.4

0.8

-3.3

6-93

7-93

-2.2

9-92

5-93

9.4

8-92

4-93

-7.6

7-92

3-93

4.6

6-92

2-93

8.3

5-92

1-93

3.5

4-92

1987 = 100

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

9.6

3-92

8-92

105.3
105.6
106.3
106.7
106.0
106.8
106.6
-4.4

106.2

10-92

3.8

3.2

3.1

2.3

1.8

4.3

2.6

5.2

15.7

11-92

4.5

3.9

4.0

3.4

3.2

5.5

4.6

6.9

13.1

10.5

12-92

4.6

4.1

4.2

3.7

3.6

5.5

4.8

6.6

10.6

8.1

107.5
108.4
5.7

108.9

1-93

4.6

4.2

4.2

3.8

3.7

5.4

4.7

6.2

9.0

6.9

5.1

4.5

2-93

4.8

4.4

4.5

4.1

4.0

5.6

5.0

6.3

8.6

6.8

5.7

5.6

6.8

3-93

4.6

4.2

4.3

3.9

3.8

5.2

4.7

5.7

7.5

5.9

4.8

4.5

4.5

2.2

4-93

4.5

4.1

4.2

3.9

3.8

5.0

4.5

5.4

6.9

5.5

4.5

4.2

4.1

2.8

3.3

5-93

4.1

3.7

3.7

3.4

3.3

4.3

3.8

4.5

5.7

4.3

3.3

2.9

2.5

1.1

0.5

-2.2

109.3
109.9
110.1
110.4
110.2

6-93

4.0

3.6

3.6

3.3

3.2

4.2

3.7

4.3

5.3

4.1

3.2

2.8

2.4

1.4

1.1

0.0

2.2

7-93

4.0

3.7

3.7

3.4

3.4

4.3

3.8

4.4

5.3

4.2

3.5

3.2

2.9

2.2

2.2

1.8

3.9

5.6

8-93

3.9

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.3

4.1

3.7

4.2

5.0

4.0

3.3

3.0

2.8

2.2

2.2

1.9

3.3

3.9

2.2

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93




110.4
110.9
111.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 16, 1993

P erson al Incom e in 1987 Dollars
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

4.8

4.8

Ü

4.4

4.4

, - 1 .8*> 1
1\ \ \ \ \

1.6%
3.6X

1.6*

4.0

o Ojr

4.0

Total Pers onal Income

/i

3.6

\
IK — ^

V

_ A ^

2.3*
-0.7%>

1.6*
- K
3.2 .'... v * --- w ... 3.5*

li

2.8
1988

1987

3.2

1

Disposablee Personal lnc<>me

0.3*

3.6

✓ —
r

1989

2.8
1991

1990

1993

1992

The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Month

Terminal
Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

2-92

6.5

4-92

4.7

2.9

4.2

2.9

2.0

3.6

2.5

1.7

2.1

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
7-93

3.0

6-92

7-92

1.1

5-92

6-92

8.4

3-92

5-92

3,583.5
4.7

3,597.1
3,600.4
3,609.2
1.2

3,612.7

7-92

3.1

2.0

1.4

1.5

0.7

0.2

8-92

3.3

2.5

2.1

2.4

2.1

2.6

5.1

9-92

3.1

2.4

2.0

2.2

2.0

2.2

3.3

1.5

10-92

4.0

3.5

3.3

3.7

3.9

4.6

6.0

6.5

11.8

11-92

3.3

2.7

2.5

2.7

2.7

3.0

3.7

3.2

4.0

-3.2

12-92

8.3

8.3

8.7

9.7

10.7

12.3

14.9

17.5

23.4

29.7

73.7

1-93

2.0

1.4

1.1

1.1

0.9

0.9

1.0

0.2

-0.2

-3.9

-4.2 -47.2

2-93

2.0

1.5

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

1.1

0.4

0.2

-2.5

-2.2 -26.6

1.9

3-93

2.4

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.8

2.0

1.5

1.5

-0.4

0.3 -16.5

5.0

8.2

4-93

3.0

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.7

3.0

2.7

2.9

1.5

2.5 -10.2

7.2

9.9

11.7

5-93

2.9

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.8

2.6

2.7

1.4

2.2

-8.0

5.6

6.9

6.3

1.1

6-93

2.6

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.4

2.1

2.1

1.0

1.6

-7.1

4.0

4.6

3.4

-0.5

-2.1

7-93

2.1

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.7

1.4

1.3

0.2

0.7

-6.9

2.4

2.5

1.1

-2.2

-3.8

-5.6

8-93

2.Í

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.6

1.7

2.2

-4.3

4.1

4.5

3.8

1.9

2.2

4.4

15.4

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93




3,613.4
3,628.4
3,632.8
3,666.8
3,656.9
3,829.1
3,630.7
3,636.5
3,660.4
3,694.2
3,697.7
3,691.2
3,673.6
3,717.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 30, 1993

10

R etail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

1987

1988

1989

1990

Billions of Dollars

1991

1992

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Retail Sales in 1982-84 Dollars
(Compounded Aiinual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
1-92
2-92
3-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

Initial Month
Dollars
9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Millions of
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

14.0

116,040
114,894

0.6 -11.2

4-92

-0.2

-6.7

-1.9

114,711

5-92

1.0

-3.0

1.4

4.8

6-92

0.5

-2.7

0.4

1.5

-1.6

7-92

0.9

-1.5

1.1

2.1

0.7

3.1

8-92

1.6

-0.4

2.0

2.9

2.3

4.4

5.6

9-92

2.1

0.5

2.6

3.5

3.2

4.9

5.8

5.9

10-92

4.1

2.9

5.1

6.3

6.6

8.8

10.8

13.4

21.5

11-92

3.2

2.0

3.8

4.7

4.7

6.0

6.7

7.0

7.6

-4.7

12-92

4.0

3.0

4.7

5.6

5.7

7.0

7.8

8.3

9.2

3.5

12.3

1-93

3.2

2.2

3.7

4.3

4.3

5.2

5.5

5.5

5.4

0.5

3.2

-5.2

2-93

2.5

1.6

2.9

3.4

3.2

3.8

4.0

3.7

3.2

-0.9

0.4

-5.1

-4.9

3-93

1.3

0.4

1.5

1.8

1.5

1.8

1.7

1.1

0.3

-3.4

-3.1

-7.8

-9.1 -13.0

4-93

2.4

1.6

2.7

3.1

2.9

3.4

3.4

3.2

2.8

0.0

0.9

-1.7

-0.5

1.7

19.0

5-93

2.7

2.0

3.0

3.4

3.3

3.7

3.8

3.6

3.3

0.9

1.9

-0.1

1.3

3.4

12.8

7.0

6-93

2.9

2.2

3.2

3.6

3.5

3.9

4.0

3.8

3.6

1.6

2.5

1.0

2.2

4.1

10.5

6.6

6.2

7-93

2.9

2.3

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

1.7

2.6

1.2

2.4

3.9

8.6

5.4

4.6

3.0

8-93

2.7

2.1

3.0

3.3

3.2

3.5

3.6

3.4

3.2

1.5

2.2

1.0

1.9

3.1

6.7

3.8

2.8

1.1

-0.6

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

115,158
115,004
115,297
115,825
116,379
118,280
117,811
118,956
118,427
117,933
116,567
118,265
118,931
119,526
119,817
119,752

Retail sales data deflated by CPI-U 11982-84=1005.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 14, 1993

11

In ven tories Com pared With M onthly Sales
Manufacturing and Trade
Seasonally Adjusted

Ratio

Ratio

1.62

1.62

1I

1.58

1.54

1.50

1.58

f

\

Ia
k y

^

f

1.54

r

1.50

\\

vs

v

\

1.46

1.42

nj

V \\X

»
1987

1988

1989

1.46

1.42

1990

1992

1991

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
12-91

Initial Month
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Millions of
Dollars
1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

1-92

-4.9

2-92

-1.9

1.2

3-92

-0.6

1.7

2.1

4-92

0.8

2.8

3.6

5.2

5-92

0.6

2.1

2.4

2.5

-0.2

6-92

1.5

2.9

3.3

3.7

3.0

6.3

7-92

2.0

3.3

3.7

4.1

3.7

5.7

5.1

8-92

2.1

3.1

3.4

3.7

3.3

4.5

3.6

2.2

9-92

1.7

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.4

3.0

2.0

0.4

-1.3

10-92

1.6

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.1

2.6

1.7

0.6

-0.2

1.0

11-92

1.7

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.6

1.8

1.1

0.7

1.7

2.4

12-92

1.9

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.4

2.8

2.2

1.6

1.5

2.4

3.2

4.0

1-93

2.0

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.8

2.3

1.9

1.8

2.6

3.1

3.5

3.0

2-93

2.2

2.7

2.9

2.9

2.7

3.0

2.7

2.3

2.3

3.1

3.6

4.0

4.0

5.1

3-93

2.4

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.4

3.1

2.8

2.9

3.6

4.1

4.6

4.8

5.7

6.3

4-93

2.6

3.1

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.5

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.8

4.2

4.6

4.8

5.4

5.6

4.8

5-93

2.6

3.1

3.2

3.3

3.1

3.4

3.2

3.0

3.1

3.6

4.0

4.3

4.3

4.7

4.5

3.6

2.4

6-93

2.4

2.9

3.0

3.1

2.9

3.1

2.9

2.7

2.7

3.2

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.4

2.4

1.2

0.0

7-93

2.0

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.5

2.2

2.0

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.2

1.6

0.4. -1.0

-2.7

-5.3

12-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5-92

6-92

7-92

8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

830,003
830,846




832,300
835,805
835,685
839,937
843,411
844,940
844,011
844,728
846,374
849,117
851,190
854,715
859,094

3-93

862,478
864,198
864,227
860,332

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 15, 1993

12

Gross D om estic P roduct
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

6.8

6.8

6.1

6.1

Current Dollars

5.5%

5.4

5.4

4.7

4.7

4.0

4.0

“ I -r
1987

1988

1989

1990

1992

1993

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

4-88

3.5
3.0

2.5

2.2

1.7

0.9

2.1

1.6

1.1

0.7

1-90

2.3

2.0

1.7

1.6

2.5

2.2

1.9

1.6

1.6

2.2

2.5

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

3.5

2-90

1-92

0.0

4-89

Billions of Dollars
4-91

1.8

3-89

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

3-90

3.2

2-89

2-90

3.9

1-89

1-90

4,779.7
4,817.6
4,839.0
4,839.0
4,856.7

1.5

4,898.3
1.5

4,917.1

3-90

1.8

1.5

1.2

1.1

1.4

1.4

0.3

-0.9

4-90

1.2

0.9

0.6

0.4

0.5

0.2

-0.8

-2.0

-3.2

1-91

0.9

0.5

0.2

0.0

0.0

-0.3

-1.2

-2.1

-2.8

-2.4

2-91

0.9

0.6

0.3

0.2

0.2

0.0

-0.7

-1.3

-1.4

-0.5

4,906.5
4,867.2
4,837.8
1.5

4,855.6

3-91

1.0

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.3

0.2

-0.4

-0.7

-0.7

0.1

1.4

1.4

4-91

0.9

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

1.2

1.0

0.6

1-92

1.1

0.9

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.9

1.7

1.8

2.0

3.5

2-92

1.2

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.5

0.4

0.6

1.2

2.0

2.1

2.3

3.2

2.8

4,872.6
4,879.6
4,922.0
4,956.5

3-92

1.4

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.9

1.5

2.2

2.3

2.6

3.3

3.1

3.4

4-92

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.5

2.0

2.7

2.9

3.2

3.9

4.0

4.6

5.7

1-93

1.6

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.9

2.5

2.6

2.8

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.2

0.8

2-93

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.4

1.9

2.4

2.5

2.7

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.8

1.3

1.9

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

4,998.2
5,068.3
5,078.2
5,102.1

Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1993

13

Im p licit Price D eflator for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1987

1988

1989

1990

Percent

1991

1992

1993

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-88

4-88

4-88

4.6
4.6

5.0

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

1987 = 100
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

5.4

2-89

2-89

3.9

1-89

1-89

105.5
106.9
4.6

108.1

3-89

4.4

4.6

4.2

3.8

4-89

4.3

4.4

4.0

3.7

3.7

109.1

1-90

4.4

4.5

4.3

4.2

4.4

5.2

110.1
111.5
112.7

2-90

4.4

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.8

4.4

3-90

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.5

4.2

4-90

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.3

4.5

4.2

4.1

4.3

1-91

4.4

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.4

4.4

4.6

5.0

2-91

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.1

3-91

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.1

3.1

4-91

4.1

4.1

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.4

2.9

2.7

2.4

1-92

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.8

2-92

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.4

3.0

3-92

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.6

2.0

1.0

4-92

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.5

2.2

3.3

1-93

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.1

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

3.5

3.6

2-93

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.1

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.6

3.1

3.0

2.3

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

4.0

113.8
115.0
116.4
117.3
118.2
118.9
120.0
120.9
121.2
122.2
123.3
124.0

Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1993

14

Final Sales in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-88

4-88

<*-88

2.8

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

3-90

Billions of Dollars
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

4.1

1-89

1-89

1.5

4,758.7
4,776.3

2-89

2.6

1.8

2.2

3-89

2.4

1.8

2.0

1.8

4-89

2.0

1.5

1.6

1.2

0.7

1-90

2.6

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.9

5.2

2-90

2.1

1.8

1.9

1.8

1.8

2.4

-0.4

3-90

1.9

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.8

0.1

4,802.0
4,823.0
4,831.8
4,893.6
4,889.0
0.5

4,895.6

4-90

1.7

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.2

-0.2

0.0

-0.6

1-91

1.2

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.4

-0.8

-0.9

-1.6

-2.7

2-91

1.3

1.0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

-0.3

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

1.9

3-91

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.5

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-0.4

0.8

-0.4

4-91

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.4

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.3

0.5

-0.2

-0.1

1-92

1.3

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.6

1.5

1.3

2.2

4,888.0
4,855.2
4,878.0
4,873.5
4,872.5
4,926.9

4.5

2-92

1.3

1.1

1.1

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.8

1.5

1.3

1.9

2.9

1.4

3-92

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.1

1.2

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.2

1.8

1.8

2.4

3.2

2.5

3.7

4-92

1.7

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.7

2.4

2.5

3.0

3.8

3.6

4.7

5.8

1-93

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.0

1.2

1.2

1.4

2.0

2.0

2.4

2.9

2.5

2.8

2.4

-0.8

2-93

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.6

2.1

2.1

2.5

2.9

2.6

2.9

2.7

1.2

3.2

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

4,943.8
4,988.6
5,059.6
5,048.9
5,089.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1993

Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

4-88

2.1
1.8

0.6

2.0

1.4

2.0

1-90

2-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

3-90

Billions of Dollars
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

1.1

3-89

4-89

0.1

2-89

3-89

4.1

1-89

2-89

3,202.9
3,203.6
3,212.2
2.9

3,235.3

4-89

1.8

1.2

1.6

1.9

0.8

1-90

2.0

1.5

1.9

2.2

1.8

2.8

2-90

1.8

1.4

1.7

1.8

1.5

1.8

0.9

3-90

1.8

1.5

1.8

1.9

1.6

1.9

1.5

2.1

4-90

1.3

1.0

1.1

1.1

0.8

0.7

0.1

-0.3

-2.7

1-91

0.9

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.2

0.0

-0.7

-1.2

-2.8

-2.8

2-91

1.0

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.3

-0.2

-0.4

-1.3

-0.6

1.8

3-91

1.0

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.5

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.6

0.0

1.5

1.3

4-91

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.5

0.0

1.0

0.7

0.0

1-92

1.2

0.9

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.9

1.8

1.9

2.2

4.3

2-92

1.2

1.0

1.1

1.1

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.5

1.0

1.8

1.8

2.0

3.0

1.8

3-92

1.4

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

0.9

1.5

2.2

2.3

2.6

3.4

3.0

4.2

4-92

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.5

2.0

2.7

2.9

3.2

4.0

3.8

4.9

5.6

1-93

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.9

2.5

2.6

2.8

3.3

3.1

3.5

3.2

0.8

2-93

I .7

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

2.0

2.6

2.7

2.9

3.3

3.1

3.5

3.3

2.1

3.4

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

3,242.0
3,264.4
3,271.6
3,288.4
3,265.9
3,242.7
3,256.9
3,267.1
3,267.5
3,302.3
3,316.8
3,350.9
3,397.2
3,403.8
3,432.7

Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1993

15

Residential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Quarter

Terainal
Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-88

-1.2
-4.8
-5.5

-8.3

-9.7

-5.6

-7.7

-8.4

-6.8

-3.6

-4.9

-4.8

-2.3

0.4

2-90

-5.8

-7.3

-7.6

-6.6

-6.3

-8.0

-9.6 -10.2

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-93

4-92

-5.9

1-90

4-90

-7.6

4-89

3-90

-8.6 -11.7

3-89

2-90

-5.4

2-89

1-90

3.3

1-89

4-89

3-90

225.3
222.2
215.4
211.2
208.0
7.1

211.6

-6.4 -18.3

201.2

-9.9 -10.5 -12.0 -20.2 -22.1

189.0

4-90

-10.0 -11.5 -12.4 -12.5 -13.5 -15.2 -21.6 -23.2 -24.3

1-91

-11.7 -13.2 -14.1 -14.5 -15.6 -17.4 -22.6 -24.0 -24.9 -25.5

2-91

-10.6 -11.9 -12.6 -12.7 -13.4 -14.5 -18.3 -18.3 -17.0 -13.1

1.2

176.3
163.8
164.3

3-91

-8.5

-9.5

-9.9

-9.8 -10.0 -10.6 -13.2 -12.2

-9.5

-4.0

9.0

17.3

4-91

-6.6

-7.4

-7.5

-7.1

-7.1

-7.2

-9.1

-7.5

-4.2

1.6

12.6

18.8

20.3

1-92

-5.1

-5.7

-5.7

-5.2

-4.9

-4.8

-6.2

-4.3

-1.0

4.5

13.7

18.2

18.6

2-92

-3.5

-4.0

-3.8

-3.2

-2.8

-2.4

-3.4

-1.4

2.0

7.2

15.3

19.1

19.6

19.3

21.8

3-92

-3.2

-3.6

-3.5

-2.8

-2.4

-2.1

-3.0

-1.1

1.9

6.3

12.8

15.3

14.7

12.9

11.0

1.2

171.0
179.1
16.8

186.2
195.6
196.2

4-92

-1.4

-1.7

-1.4

-0.6

-0.1

0.4

-0.2

1.8

4.9

9.3

15.4

18.0

18.1

17.6

17.8

15.9

32.8

1-93

-1.2

-1.5

-1.2

-0.5

0.0

0.5

0.0

1.8

4.6

8.4

13.6

15.5

15.2

14.2

13.5

10.9

16.1

1.5

2-93

-1.7

-1.9

-1.7

-1.1

-0.6

-0.2

-0.8

0.8

3.2

6.5

10.8

12.0

11.3

9.8

8.5

5.4

6.9

-4.1

-9.5

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

210.6
211.4
206.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1993

Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

3-90

Billions of Dollars
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93
538.8

4-88

2.7

1-89

1.6

0.5

2-89

1.7

1.3

2.0

3-89

1.2

0.7

0.9

-0.3

4-89

0.2

-0.4

-0.7

-2.0

-3.7

1-90

1.9

1.7

2.0

2.0

3.1

10.4

2-90

1.0

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.7

2.9

-4.1

3-90

1.5

1.3

1.4

1.3

1.7

3.6

0.4

5.0

4-90

0.4

0.1

0.1

-0.2

-0.2

0.7

-2.4

-1.6

1-91

-1.0

-1.4

-1.7

-2.2

-2.5

-2.3

-5.2

-5.6 -10.5 -13.2

2-91

-1.2

-1.6

-1.8

-2.3

-2.6

-2.4

-4.7

-4.9

-8.0

-8.1

-2.7

3-91

-1.4

-1.8

-2.0

-2.4

-2.7

-2.6

-4.6

-4.7

-7.0

-6.7

-3.3

-3.8

4-91

-1.7

-2.1

-2.3

-2.7

-3.0

-2.9

-4.7

-4.8

-6.6

-6.3

-3.9

-4.5

-5.1

1-92

-1.3

-1.6

-1.8

-2.2

-2.4

-2.2

-3.7

-3.6

-5.0

-4.4

-2.1

-1.9

-0.9

3.5

2-92

-0.3

-0.5

-0.6

-0.8

-0.9

-0.6

-1.7

-1.5

-2.3

-1.4

1.1

2.1

4.2

9.2

15.1

3-92

-0.1

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5

-0.5

-0.2

-1.2

-0.9

-1.6

-0.7

1.6

2.5

4.1

7.4

9.3

3.8

4-92

0.4

0.2

0.2

0.1

0.1

0.4

-0.4

-0.1

-0.6

0.3

2.4

3.3

4.8

7.4

8.8

5.7

7.6

1-93

1.1

1.0

1.0

1.0

1.1

1.4

0.7

1.2

10.1

8.5

11.0

14.4

2-93

1.9

1.8

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.5

1.9

2.4

2.1

3.2

5.2

6.2

7.7

10.1

11.4

10.5

12.8

15.5

16.6

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

539.5
542.2
541.8
536.7
550.2
544.5
551.2
540.2

-7.7

0.8

1.8

521.4

3.8

517.8

4.8

512.8

6.3

506.1

8.8

510.5
528.8
533.8
543.7
562.3
584.3

Second quarter data ara final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1993

16

Exports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

4-88

14.9
15.3

16.0

11.5

10.7

8.3

11.8

11.3

9.9

6.8

1-90

11.9

11.5

10.4

8.5

12.6

10.8

9.8

8.3

10.9

9.8

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-93

4-92

12.1

11.3

2-91

13.1

2-90

1-91

0.8

4-89

4-90

16.3

3-89

3-90

15.7

2-89

2-90

14.0

1-89

1-90

438.2
454.5
472.0
472.9
487.7
501.8
7.6

511.1

3-90

9.5

8.9

7.8

6.2

7.5

5.8

2.7

-1.9

4-90

9.5

9.0

8.0

6.7

8.0

6.7

5.0

3.7

9.6

1-91

8.4

7.8

6.9

5.6

6.5

5.2

3.5

2.2

4.3

-0.8

2-91

9.4

8.9

8.2

7.2

8.2

7.4

6.5

6.2

9.1

8.8

19.4

3-91

8.8

8.4

7.7

6.8

7.5

6.8

5.9

5.6

7.5

6.8

10.9

3.0

4-91

9.2

8.8

8.2

7.4

8.2

7.6

6.9

6.8

8.7

8.4

11.7

8.0

13.3

1-92

8.9

8.5

7.9

7.2

7.8

7.3

6.7

6.5

8.0

7.7

9.9

7.0

9.0

2-92

8.2

7.8

7.2

6.5

7.0

6.5

5.8

5.6

6.8

6.3

7.8

5.0

5.7

2.1

-0.6

3-92

8.1

7.7

7.2

6.5

7.0

6.5

5.9

5.7

6.7

6.3

7.5

5.3

5.9

3.6

2.9

508.6
520.4
519.4
542.9
546.9
564.2
4.9

571.0
570.2
6.5

579.3

4-92

8.1

7.8

7.3

6.7

7.1

6.6

6.2

6.0

6.9

6.6

7.7

5.9

6.5

4.9

4.8

7.6

8.8

1-93

7.5

7.2

6.6

6.0

6.4

5.9

5.4

5.2

6.0

5.6

6.4

4.7

4.9

3.4

3.0

4.2

3.0

-2.4

2-93

7.3

7.0

6.5

5.9

6.2

5.8

5.3

5.1

5.8

5.4

6.1

4.5

4.8

3.4

3.1

4.0

3.2

0.5

3.6

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

591.6
588.0
593.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1993

Imports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

3-90

Billions of Dollars
4-91

4-88

3.1
4.0

0.4

4.6

2.4

6.2

4,4

2.6

5.2

4.9

3.3

1-90

4.6

3.2

5.3

5.1

4.4

5.6

2-90

4.7

3.6

5.3

5.2

4.8

5.5

5.4

3-90

4.2

3.1

4.5

4.2

3.7

3.8

2.9

0.5

4-90

2.6

1.5

2.4

1.9

1.0

0.4

-1.3

-4.4

1-91

1.1

0.0

0.6

-0.1

-1.2

-2.0

-3.8

-6.7 -10.1 -11.1

2-91

2.0

1.1

1.8

1.3

0.6

0.1

-0.9

-2.4

-3.4

-0.4

11.7

3-91

2.8

2.0

2.8

2.4

1.9

1.7

1.1

0.3

0.2

3.5

11.7

11.8

4-91

3.1

2.4

3.1

2.8

2.4

2.3

1.8

1.2

1.4

4.2

9.9

9.0

6.3

1-92

3.1

2.5

3.1

2.9

2.5

2,5

2.1

1.6

1.8

4.1

8.4

7.3

5.1

1-93

6.5

4-89

4-92

5.8

3-89

3-92

-4.8

2-89

2-92

11.7

1-89

1-92

3.8

540.9
534.3
541.9
550.5
555.0
562.6
570.0
570.7
-9.1

557.2
541.0
556.2
571.9
580.7
586.2

2-92

3.9

3.4

4.1

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.3

3.7

6.0

9.8

9.3

8.6

9.7

15.9

3-92

4.3

3.8

4.4

4.3

4.1

4.2

4.1

3.9

4.4

6.5

9.7

9.3

8.7

9.5

12.5

9.2

4-92

4.3

3.9

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.5

6.4

9.1

8.7

8.1

8.5

10.2

7.4

5.6

1-93

4.7

4.3

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.8

4.8

5.2

6.9

9.4

9.1

8.7

9.2

10.5

8.8

8.6

11.6

2-93

5.2

4.8

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.5

5.4

5.5

5.9

7.5

9.9

9.6

9.3

9.8

11.1

9.9

10.1

12.5

13.3

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

608.2
621.8
630.3
647.9
668.4

Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1993

17

Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Quarter

Terminal
Quarter
3-88

4-88

4-88

1.6

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

-1.6

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-93

4-92

5.0

1-89

1-89

894.5
890.8

2-89

2.8

1.8

5.3

3-89

3.2

2.6

4.9

4.5

4-89

2.6

2.0

3.3

2.3

0.2

1-90

3.3

3.0

4.2

3.8

3.5

7.0

2-90

3.0

2.7

3.6

3.1

2.7

4.0

1.1

3-90

2.5

2.2

2.9

2.4

1.9

2.4

0.2

-0.6

4-90

2.9

2.6

3.3

2.9

2.6

3.3

2.1

2.6

5.8

1-91

2.9

2.7

3.2

2.9

2.7

3.2

2.2

2.6

4.3

2.8

2-91

2.8

2.5

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.9

2.1

2.3

3.3

2.1

1.4

3-91

2.4

2.1

2.5

2.2

1.9

2.2

1.4

1.5

2.0

0.7

-0.3

-2.0

4-91

1.8

1.5

1.8

1.5

1.2

1.3

0.5

0.4

0.6

-0.7

-1.8

-3.4

-4.7

1-92

1.9

1.6

1.9

1.6

1.3

1.5

0.8

0.8

1.0

0.1

-0.6

-1.3

-0.9

3.0

2-92

1.7

1.4

1.7

1.4

1.1

1.2

0.6

0.5

0.7

-0.1

-0.7

-1.2

-1.0

1.0

-1.0

3-92

1.8

1.6

1.9

1.6

1.4

1.5

0.9

0.9

1.1

0.5

0.1

-0.2

0.3

2.0

1.5

902.3
912.2
912.6
928.1
930.6
929.2
942.4
948.9
952.3
947.6
936.2
943.1
940.7
4.1

950.2

4-92

1.6

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.2

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.2

-0.1

-0.4

-0.1

1.1

0.5

1.3

-1.4

1-93

1.2

1.0

1.1

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.5

-0.9

-1.3

-1.2

-0.4

-1.3

-1.3

-3.9

-6.4

2-93

1.3

1.1

1.3

1.1

0.8

0.9

0.4

0.4

0.5

-0.1

-0.4

-0.6

-0.4

0.3

-0.2

0.0

-1.3

-1.2

4.3

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

946.9
931.3
941.1

Second quarter data are final estimates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1993

Corporate Profits
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

3-90

Billions of Dollars
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93
378.3

4-88

15.0

1-89

2.3

-9.1

2-89

1.7

-4.4

3-89

-2.2

-7.3

-6.4 -12.9

4-89

-2.4

-6.3

-5.3

-8.2

-3.1

1-90

3.1

0.9

3.6

4.6

14.7

35.7

369.4
369.9

0.5

357.3
354.5
382.6
409.3

2-90

6.7

5.4

8.6

10.7

19.9

33.3

3-90

0.3

-1.6

-0.3

-0.5

2.9

4.9

31.0
-7.7 -35.0

4-90

-0.3

-2.1

-1.0

-1.3

1.2

2.3

-6.8 -21.4

-5.0

1-91

0.4

-1.1

0.0

-0.1

2.2

3.3

-3.5 -12.8

1.0

7.4

2-91

0.5

-0.8

0.2

0.1

2.1

3.0

-2.5

-9.4

1.2

4.5

3-91

-0.6

-1.9

-1.1

-1.3

0.2

0.7

-4.2 -10.0

-2.3

-1.4

4-91

1.1

0.0

0.9

1.0

2.6

3.4

-0.6

-5.0

2.5

4.4

3.4

4.4

24.0

1-92

3.3

2.5

3.5

3.8

5.6

6.7

3.5

0.1

7.6

10.3

11.0

14.3

30.4

37.1

2-92

3.2

2.4

3.4

3.6

5.3

6.2

3.3

0.3

6.7

8.8

9.1

11.0

20.0

18.1

3-92

0.2

-0.8

-0.1

-0.2

0.9

1.3

-1.6

-4.7

0.0

0.7

-0.3

-0.7

2.4

4-92

4.4

3.8

4.7

5.0

6.6

7.4

5.2

2.9

8.3

10.1

10.5

12.0

17.6

16.0

9.7

1-93

3.8

3.2

4.0

4.2

5.6

6.3

4.1

2.0

6.7

8.1

8.2

9.1

13.2

11.1

5.4

6.7

38.2

-6.6

2-93

4.9

4.3

5.2

5.5

6.9

7.6

5.7

3.8

8.3

9.8

10.1

11.2

14.9

13.5

9.3

11.3

34.2

8.6

26.3

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

367.5
362.8
369.3
370.8

1.6

359.0

-5.5 -12.1

378.8
409.9
411.7

1.8

367.5

-4.0 -19.6 -36.5

439.5

14.0 104.6

432.1
458.1

Corporate profits with capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1993

18

Gross Saving as a P ercen t of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

20

18

16

14

12

10
1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Private Saving
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-88

4-88

4-88

7.6

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

3-90

Billions of Dollars
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

9.2

1-89

1-89

6.0

814.8
826.7

2-89

2.3

-0.9

-7.4

3-89

1.8

-0.6

-3.7

0.1

4-89

3.2

1.7

0.3

4.4

8.9

1-90

5.8

5.1

4.9

9.4

14.3

20.1

2-90

6.4

5.9

5.9

9.6

12.9

15.0

811.0
811.2
828.6
867.4
10.1

888.5

-9.4 -25.5

3-90

1.8

0.7

-0.1

1.4

1.8

-0.5

4-90

3.6

2.9

2.5

4.2

5.1

4.2

-0.7

-5.6

19.5

1-91

5.9

5.5

5.5

7.4

8.7

8.7

6.0

4.7

24.0

28.8

2-91

6.0

5.7

5.6

7.4

8.5

8.4

6.2

5.2

18.1

17.4

3-91

4.4

4.0

3.8

5.1

5.7

5.3

3.0

1.6

9.8

6.8

825.5
863.1
919.4
7.0

935.0

-2.8 -11.6

906.6

4-91

5.8

5.6

5.5

6.9

7.7

7.6

5.9

5.2

12.7

11.1

5.7

5.1

25.0

1-92

5.9

5.6

5.6

6.9

7.6

7.5

6.0

5.4

11.7

10.2

5.9

5.6

15.4

6.6

2-92

5.9

5.7

5.6

6.8

7.4

7.3

5.9

5.4

10.8

9.4

5.9

5.6

12.1

6.1

5.7

3-92

6.3

6.1

6.1

7.2

7.8

7.7

6.6

6.2

11.0

9.8

6.9

6.9

12.1

8.1

8.9

4-92

4.7

4.4

4.3

5.2

5.6

5.4

4.1

3.5

7.4

6.0

3.1

2.4

5.5

1.1

-0.6

1-93

5.7

5.5

5.5

6.4

6.9

6.8

5.7

5.3

9.0

7.9

5.6

5.4

8.5

5.5

5.2

5.0

1.6

2-93

4.6

4.4

4.3

5.1

5.4

5.2

4.1

3.6

6.8

5.6

3.3

2.8

5.1

2.0

1.2

0.1

-3.7

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

958.7
974.1
987.7
12.2

1,016.5

-3.7 -17.3

969.4
24.9

1,024.8

3.9 -13.5
4-92

988.3

1-93

Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1993

19

B u sin ess P rodu ctivity and C om pensation
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1987

1990

1989

1988

Percent

1992

1991

1993

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector Output per Hour
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
1982 = 100

Initial Quarter

Terminal
Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

4-88

0.4

1-89

-1.1

-2.5

110.9

2-89

-0.8

-1.4

-0.4

3-89

-1.0

-1.4

-0.9

-1.4

4-89

-0.8

-1.1

-0.6

-0.7

0.0

1-90

-0.4

-0.5

0.0

0.1

0.9

1.8

2-90

0.2

0.1

0.7

0.9

1.7

2.6

3.3

3-90

0.0

-0.1

0.4

0.5

1.0

1.3

1.1

-1.1

4-90

-0.1

-0.2

0.2

0.2

0.6

0.7

0.4

-1.1

-1.1

1-91

0.0

0.0

0.3

0.4

0.7

0.9

0.6

-0.2

0.2

1.5

2-91

0.3

0.3

0.6

0.7

1.0

1.2

1.0

0.5

1.0

2.0

2.5

3-91

0.3

0.3

0.6

0.7

1.0

1.1

1.0

0.6

1.0

1.7

1.8

1.1

4-91

0.6

0.6

0.9

1.0

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.1

1.5

2.2

2.4

2.3

3.6

1-92

0.9

0.9

1.2

1.4

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.6

2.1

2.7

3.1

3.2

4.3

5.1

2-92

1.0

1.0

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

1.9

1.7

2.1

2.7

2.9

3.0

3.7

3.8

2.5

3-92

1.2

1.3

1.5

1.7

1.9

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.4

2.9

3.2

3.3

3.8

3.9

3.4

4.2

4-92

1.4

1.4

1.7

1.8

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.3

3.4

3.8

3.9

3.5

4.0

3.8

1-93

1.2

1.2

1.5

1.6

1.8

1.9

2.0

1.8

2.1

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.9

2.8

2.2

2.1

1.0

-1.7

2-93

1.1

1.1

1.3

1.4

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.8

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.1

1.5

1.3

0.3

-1.4

-1.0

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

110.2
110.1
109.7
109.7
110.2
111.1
110.8
110.5
110.9
111.6
111.9
112.9
114.3
115.0
116.2
117.3
116.8
116.5

Revised from 1990.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 9, 1993

20

Net Federal Debt
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Taroinal
Quarter
2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

Initial Quarter
Dollars
3-90 4-90 1-91

2-90

Billions of
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92
2,062.0

3-88

8.3

4-88

6.6

4.9

1-89

6.7

6.0

7.1

2,086.6
2,122.5

2-89

6.5

5.8

6.3

5.6

3-89

6.7

6.2

6.7

6.5

7.5

4-89

7.0

6.7

7.2

7.3

8.1

8.7

1-90

8.1

8.1

8.7

9.1

10.3

11.8

15.0

2-90

8.5

8.6

9.2

9.6

10.6

11.7

13.2

11.5

2,151.7
2,190.8
2,236.9
2,316.3
2,380.4

3-90

8.9

9.0

9.6

10.0

10.9

11.8

12.8

11.7

11.9

4-90

9.4

9.5

10.1

10.5

11.3

12.1

13.0

12.3

12.7

13.6

1-91

9.3

9.4

10.0

10.3

11.0

11.6

12.2

11.5

11.5

11.3

9.1

10.1

2,448.3
2,527.5
2,583.4

2-91

9.5

9.7

10.5

11.1

11.6

12.1

11.6

11.6

11.5

10.5

10.0

10.2

10.7

11.0

11.7

12.2

12.7

12.3

12.5

12.6

12.3

13.9

4-91

10.0

10.1

10.6

10.9

11.5

11.9

12.3

12.0

12.0

12.0

11.7

1-92

10.1

10.2

10.7

11.0

11.5

11.9

12.2

11.9

12.0

12.0

11.7

10.9

11.1

11.6

12.0

12.3

12.1

12.1

12.2

11.9

2,656.6

11.8

3-91

16.1

2,757.6

12.5

12.9

9.7

2,822.2

12.3

12.5

10.7

11.7

12.5

12.6

11.5

12.4

2,992.5

11.5

11.4

9.6

3,061.7

10.4

10.0

8.5

7.4

9.2

7.9

7.1

6.9

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

3-92

10.3

10.4

10.8

11.0

11.5

11.8

12.1

11.8

11.8

11.8

11.6

12.0

12.0

11.0

4-92

10.1

10.2

10.5

10.8

11.2

11.5

11.7

11.4

11.4

11.3

11.0

11.3

11.2

10.3

9.9

10.0

10.3

10.5

10.9

11.1

11.3

11.0

11.0

10.9

10.6

10.7

10.6

9.7

9.7

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

2-92

1-93

2,901.1
13.2

10.3

10.4

3,116.5
3,168.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1993

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT DEBT
(billions of dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals
Gross
federal debt

Federal debt held
by agencies
and trusts

Net
federal debt

Federal debt held
by Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal debt held
by private
investors

Federal debt held
by foreign
investors

1988 March
June
September
December

2487.7
2548.8
2613.8
2673.0

499.0
528.4
552.2
584.4

1988.5
2021.2
2062.0
2086.6

220.9
227.1
232.3
231.7

1765.0
1796.5
1830.5
1855.1

331.0
343.3
348.5
363.1

1989 March
June
September
December

2738.8
2801.7
2869.3
2942.2

617.4
650.6
679.0
701.9

2122.5
2151.7
2190.8
2236.9

232.8
231.4
223.6
221.4

1886.9
1919.9
1967.3
2013.2

374.9
367.3
398.3
392.5

1990 March
June
September
December

3048.3
3146.3
3246.4
3353.0

734.2
766.9
799.0
820.6

2316.3
2380.4
2448.3
2527.5

223.9
231.1
235.5
251.3

2096.5
2153.8
2217.0
2286.0

383.8
389.3
406.9
419.9

1991 March
June
September
December

3460.5
3541.4
3680.1
3787.6

880.5
886.3
923.9
958.5

2583.4
2656.6
2757.6
2822.2

253.0
255.0
268.0
272.1

2339.8
2411.3
2500.1
2560.4

427.2
436.2
443.7
452.3

1992 March
June
September
December

3876.1
3988.9
4081.1
4160.9

978.8
998.6
1021.1
1036.0

2901.1
2992.5
3061.7
3116.5

274.0
277.0
300.1
291.7

2640.9
2727.5
2777.5
2836.6

471.6
492.2
502.1
509.4

1993 March

4226.4

1058.9

3168.6

312.7

2869.2

529.5

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original
data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin-, seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.
Data have been revised to reflect changed seasonal adjustment factors.




21

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS
(billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates)

Quarters

Receipts___________
Cyclically
adjusted
budget

__________ Expenditures__________
Cyclically
National
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

National
income accounts
budget

Surplus or tieficit( - )
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

1985 1
2
3
4

797.8
758.6
794.3
803.6

819.3
780.7
811.8
822.0

947.7
964.9
976.3
990.8

953.0
964.4
991.3
1012.6

-149.9
-206.3
-182.0
-187.2

-133.7
-183.7
-179.5
-190.6

1986 1
2
3
4

809.4
814.2
828.2
856.8

816.4
832.2
852.1
875.5

992.7
1038.0
1047.9
1034.3

1001.4
1045.2
1032.4
1038.7

-183.3
-223.8
-219.7
-177.5

-185.0
-213.0
-180.3
-163.2

1987 1
2
3
4

858.4
928.6
924.5
943.5

875.1
938.1
927.2
930.0

1048!1
1058.9
1059.0
1096.3

1057.4
1060.4
1065.6
1103.0

-189.7
-130.3
-134.5
-152.7

-182.3
-122.3
-138.4
-173.0

1988 1
2
3
4

940.5
970.4
977.8
1000.6

924.9
949.5
953.0
971.4

1098.0
1105.0
1097.3
1135.5

1098.0
1111.4
1098.2
1156.1

-157.5
-134.6
-119.5
-134.9

-173.1
-161.9
-145.2
-184.7

1989 1
2
3
4

1050.9
1064.5
1053.6
1068.3

1014.3
1032.2
1020.2
1035.4

1160.8
1174.2
1181.5
1209.8

1181.0
1187.3
1182.0
1208.2

-110.0
-109.7
-128.0
-141.5

-166.7
-155.1
-161.8
-172.8

1990 1
2
3
4

1091.3
1114.5
1123.7
1115.8

1061.7
1093.4
1116.0
1132.1

1257.8
1266.5
1268.3
1306.9

1252.2
1275.4
1273.6
1311.2

-166.4
-152.0
-144.6
-191.0

-190.5
-182.0
-157.6
-179.1

1991 1
2
3
4

1115.8
1120.3
1132.6
1142.5

1160.1
1173.7
N.A.
N.A.

1261.0
1326.5
1350.2
1387.2

1257.9
1319.3
N.A.
N.A.

-145.2
-206.2
-217.7
- 244.7

- 97.8
-145.6
N.A.
N.A.

1992 1
2
3
4

1165.9
1176.1
1169.1
1221.1

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1436.1
1456.0
1459.8
1485.3

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-270.2
- 279.9
-290.7
-264.2

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1993 1
2

1218.4
1268.0

N.A.
N.A.

1481.9
1490.6

N.A.
N.A.

-263.5
-222.6

N.A.
N.A.

N.A. — Not Available
Fiscal years
Actual
1985

1986

1987

1988

Estimates

1989

1992

1993

$ 1031.3 $ 1054.3
1252.7
1323.8

$ 1090.5
1380.9

$ 1144.1
1425.2

$ 1241.3
1500.1

$ - 2 2 1 .4

$ -2 6 9 .5

$ - 2 9 0 .4

$ -2 8 1 .1

$ -2 5 8 .7

1990

1991

1994

Total budget
Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or deficit ( - )

$

734.1
946.4

$ -2 1 2 .3

$

769.1
990.3

$

854.1
1003.9

$-221.2 $ -1 4 9 .8

$

909.0
1064.1

$ - 1 5 5 .2

$

990.7
1143.2

$ - 1 5 2 .5

Calendar years
National income accounts
budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or d e fic it(-)
Cyclically adjusted budget
Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit( - )

$

788.6
969.9

$ -1 8 1 .4

$

808.5
980.3

$ -1 7 1 .9

$

827.2
1028.2

$

913.8
1065.6

972.3
1109.0

$ 1059.3
1181.6

$ 1107.4 $ 1127.8
1273.6
1331.2

$ 1183.0
1459.3

$-201.0 $ -1 5 1 .8

$ - 1 3 6 .6

$ - 1 2 2 .3

$ - 1 6 6 .2

$ - 2 7 6 .3

$

$

949.7
1115.9

$ 1025.5
1189.6

$ 1100.8

$ - 1 6 6 .2

$ -1 6 4 .1

$ - 1 7 7 .3

844.1
1029.4

$ - 1 8 5 .4

$

917.6
1071.6

$ -1 5 4 .0

$

$ -2 0 3 .4

1278.1

Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from O ctober 1 through Septem ber 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estimates from O M B ’s Mid-Session Review of the 1994 Budget using CBO econom ic assum ptions (Septem ber 1, 1993).
C yclically adjusted budget data are in process of revision.
Totals may not add due to rounding.
Source: O ffice of M anagem ent and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Governm en t Deficit( - ) / Surplus (+ )
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Defense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

4-88

-0.3
1.9

0.9

3.8

3.8

8.2

1-90

2-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

3-90

Billions of Dollars
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

6.6

3-89

4-89

-4.4

2-89

3-89

3.9

1-89

2-89

296.8
293.5
298.2
305.3

9.9

4-89

2.3

1.9

4.1

2.9

-3.6

1-90

4.1

4.1

6.3

6.3

4.5

13.3

302.5

2-90

3.5

3.5

5.1

4.8

3.2

6.7

0.5

312.1
312.5
309.1

3-90

2.5

2.3

3.5

2.9

1.2

2.9

-1.9

-4.3

4-90

4.2

4.2

5.5

5.4

4.5

6.6

4.5

6.5

18.5

322.5

1-91

4.9

5.0

6.3

6.2

5.6

7.6

6.2

8.1

14.9

11.5

2-91

3.9

3.9

4.8

4.6

3.9

5.2

3.6

4.4

7.5

2.4

331.4

3-91

3.0

2.9

3.7

3.4

2.6

3.5

1.9

2.2

3.9

-0.5

-6.1

-6.1

321.2

4-91

1.8

1.6

2.2

1.7

0.9

1.4

-0.2

-0.3

0.5

-3.5

-8.0

-9.0 -11.9

311.2

1-92

1.7

1.6

2.1

1.7

0.9

1.4

0.0

0.0

0.7

-2.5

-5.8

-5.7

-5.5

1.4

2-92

1.5

1.3

1.7

1.3

0.6

1.0

-0.2

-0.3

0.2

-2.5

-5.1

-4.9

-4.5

-0.5

-2.4

3-92

1.9

1.7

2.2

1.9

1.2

1.7

0.6

0.6

1.2

-1.0

-3.0

-2.4

-1.4

2.4

2.8

-6.0

326.3

312.3
310.4
8.4

316.7

4-92

1.7

1.6

2.0

1.6

1.0

1.4

0.4

0.4

0.9

-1.1

-2.7

-2.2

-1.4

1.4

1.5

3.4

1-93

0.8

0.6

0.9

0.6

0.0

0.2

-0.8

-0.9

-0.6

-2.5

-4.1

-3.8

-3.4

-1.6

-2.4

-2.4

-7.4 -13.1

2-93

1.0

0.8

1.1

0.8

0.2

0.5

-0.4

-0.5

-0.2

-1.9

-3.3

-2.9

-2.4

-0.8

-1.2

-0.9

-3.8

-5.1

3.7

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

-1.3

315.7
304.8
307.6

Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1993

23

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

Subscriber:
Please include address label w ith
su bscription in q u iries or address changes.

Federal Nondefense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

4-88

16.6
12.2

9.1

3-89

9.1

6.0

2.1

10.2

8.2

6.2

7.3

15.0

1-90

11.5

10.1

9.0

10.7

16.5

10.3

9.0

7.9

8.9

12.0

10.6

1-92

18.0

2-90

Billions of Dollars
4-91

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

0.1

4-89

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-90 1-91 2-91 3-91

3-90

14.4

2-89

2-90

18.8

1-89

1-90

838.7
867.3
4.1

876.0
876.2
907.3
945.7
954.0

3.6

3-90

9.3

8.0

6.9

7.5

9.5

7.7

2.9

2.2

4-90

9.5

8.3

7.5

8.1

9.8

8.5

5.5

6.5

1-91

6.0

4.7

3.5

3.5

4.0

2.0

-1.7

-3.4

2-91

8.3

7.3

6.5

6.9

7.9

6.7

4.6

4.8

5.7

959.2
10.9

984.4
929.6

-6.1 -20.5
3.2

34.0

1,000.2

3-91

8.6

7.7

7.1

7.4

8.4

7.5

5.8

6.2

7.3

6.1

22.5

12.0

4-91

9.4

8.7

8.2

8.6

9.6

8.9

7.7

8.4

9.6

9.3

21.5

15.7

19.6

1-92

10.1

9.4

9.0

9.5

10.5

10.0

9.0

9.8

11.1

11.2

20.9

16.8

19.3

19.0

2-92

9.9

9.3

8.9

9.4

10.2

9.8

8.9

9.6

10.7

10.6

18.2

14.5

15.4

13.4

8.0

3-92

9.2

8.6

8.2

8.5

9.3

8.8

7.9

8.4

9.2

8.9

14.8

11.3

11.1

8.4

3.5

-0.9

4-92

9.2

8.7

8.3

8.6

9.3

8.8

8.0

8.5

9.2

9.0

14.0

11.0

10.8

8.7

5.5

4.2

9.6

1-93

8.9

8.3

7.9

8.2

8.8

8.3

7.6

7.9

8.5

8.3

12.5

9.8

9.4

7.4

4.7

3.7

6.0

2.6

2-93

8.5

7.9

7.6

7.8

8.3

7.9

7.1

7.4

7.9

7.6

11.3

8.8

8.3

6.5

4.2

3.3

4.7

2.3

2.0

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

1,029.0
1,076.0
1,123.8
1,145.6
1,143.1
1,169.6
1,177.1
1,183.0

Second quarter data are final estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 29, 1993

24


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102