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N a t i o n a l E c o n o m i c

T r

O c t o b e r 1991

H

O U S E H O L D

D E B T

f r o m

1983

w h ile

rate.

M a n y

e x p a n d e d

at

an

11.9

p e rce n t

a n n u a l

rate
N

w o u l d

to

1990,

analysts

serve

re cessio n.

as

a

T h e

w e re

d ra g

recent

p e rson a l

in c o m e

c o n c e r n e d

o n

that

c o n s u m e r

re ce ssio n,

rose

this

a

7.3

in

the

tu rn e d

o f

t

i

o

n

a

to

N

d e b t

event

o u t

a

l

E

c

o

n

o

m

i

c

T

v

a

i

l

a

b

l

o

n

i

c

a

l

l

r

e

n

d

s

pe rce n t

e x p lo s io n

s p e n d in g

h o w e v e r,

at

o f

be

a

E

o

l

w

e

A

c

t

r

e

y

re lative ­

A 11 d a t a s eries in N a t i o n a l E c o n o m i c T r e n d s
ly

m ild

b y

histo rical

h o u s e h o ld

d e b t

n ot

ha ve

fect

a c c u m u la te d

d e b t

o f

the

d id

standards,
a

sugge sting
stro n g

n o w

that

the

d o w n s id e

s h o w

u p

as

a c c u m u la tio n

effect.

a

d ra g

W i ll

o n

the

o f

c a n n o w b e a c c e s s e d v i a F . R . E . D . , t he St. L o u i s

ef­

F e d ' s electronic d a t a base.

F.R.E.D. provides

historic m o n e t a r y a n d interest rate data, a s w e l l

the

a s d a t a o n b u s i n e s s a n d fiscal variables. F . R . E . D .

re c o ve ry ?

is a v a i l a b l e 2 4 h o u r s a d a y , s e v e n d a y s a w e e k b y
dialing (3 1 4 ) 6 2 1 -1824:
T h e
a n d

table

b e lo w

c o n s u m e r

g r o w th

w a s

s h o w s

s p e n d in g

ra p id

d e b t
d u rin g

d u rin g

the

g r o w th
the

before

a n d

s u b s e q u e n t

e x p a n s io n

o f

re co ve ry.

the

1980s,

T h e s e r v i c e is free; y o u

recessions,

p a y o n l y f o r t he p h o n e call. T o a c c e s s F R E D . ,

D e b t

all y o u n e e d is a p e r s o n a l c o m p u t e r a n d a m o ­

d u rin g

a lth o u g h

dern.

it

P a r a m e t e r s f o r y o u r c o m m u n i c a t i o n soft­

w a r e s h o u l d b e set to n o parity, w o r d l e n g t h = 8
s lo w e d

d u r in g

bu sin e ss
g r o w th

cycle
o f

the

re ce n t

e x p e rie n c e

c o n s u m e r

s yste m atica lly

related

re ce ssio n,
does

s p e n d in g
to

not

as

it

ty p ic a lly

indicate,

fo llo w in g

p re -re c e s s io n

the

d e b t

does.

h o w e v e r,
re ce ssio n

P re v io u s

that

d a t a bits, 1 s t o p bit a n d t h e fastest b a u d rate y o u r

the

m o d e m s u p p o r t s : 3 0 0 , 1 2 0 0 , 2 4 0 0 o r 9 6 0 0 (v . 4 2 )
bps. F o r m o r e i n f o r m a t i o n , call ( 3 1 4 ) 4 4 4 - 8 5 6 2 .

is

g ro w th .

H o u s e h o l d

D e b t

( a n n u a l

a n d

C o n s u m e r

r a t e s

o f

S p e n d i n g

c h a n g e )

P e rson a l

c o n s u m p tio n

e x pe n d itu re s
Recession
P e a k

p e rio d

D e b t

T r o u g h

g r o w th

p re vio us

d u rin g

e x pa n sio n

D e b t
d u r in g

g r o w th

fo llo w in g

recession

(fo u r

g ro w th

recession

qu arte rs)

?

7 .3 %

0 . 0 %

III/ 1981

—

I V /1982

0.1

0.4

5.3

1/1980

—

III/1980

5.6

- 1 . 7

%

1.8

III/1990

11/1991

IV /1 9 7 3

—

1/1975

5.7

- 3 . 8

6.1

IV / 1 9 6 9

—

I V / 1970

5.9

0.6

4.1

11/1960

—

1/1961

8.7

5.4

.

4.3

N O T E :

Both

household

debt

and

personal

consum ption

expenditures

w ere

deflated

with

the

P C E

—

deflator.

K e ith

M .

T H E
F E D E R A L
R E S ER V E
R A N K of
S T. L O I IS

A
Æk

V i e w s expressed d o no t necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.



C a r ls o n

C o n s u m e r P r i c e I n d e x — All U r b a n C o n s u m e r s
P e rce n t C h a n g e

F r o m

Previous Y e a r

Seasonally A d justed
P e rce n t

P e rce n t

8

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

P re p a re d

C on su m er

P r ic e

by

Federal

1991

R e serve

B a n k

o f St.

Louis

In d e x

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Month

1982-84*100

In itia l Month
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91
128.2

2-90

5.8

3-90

5.3

4.8

4-90

4.5

3.8

2.8

5-90

3.8

3.2

2.4

1.9

6-90

4.6

4.3

4.1

4.7

7.7

7-90

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.7

6.2

4.7

8-90

5.4

5.4

5.5

6.2

7.6

7.6

10.6

9-90

5.9

6.0

6.2

6.8

8.1

8.2

10.1

9 .5

10-90

6.1

6.1

6.3

6.9

8.0

8.1

9.2

8 .5

128.7
129.0
129.2
130.0
130.5
131.6
132.6
7.5

133.4

11-90

5.9

5.9

6.0

6.5

7.2

7.2

7.8

6.9

5.6

3.7

12-90

5.7

5.6

5.7

6.1

6.7

6.6

6.9

6.0

4.9

3.7

3.6

1-91

5.6

5.6

5.7

6.0

6.6

6.4

6.7

5 .9

5.1

4.3

4.6

5.5

2-91

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.7

6.1

5.9

6.1

5.4

4 .6

3.9

3.9

4.1

2.7

3-91

5.0

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.4

5.2

5.2

4 .5

3.7

2.9

2.7

2.4

0.9

-0 .9

4-91

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.9

5.2

4.9

4.9

4.2

3.5

2.9

2.7

2.5

1.5

0.9

2.7

133.8
134.2
134.8
135.1
135.0
135.3

5-91

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.8

5.0

4.8

4.8

4 .2

3.5

3.0

2.9

2.7

2.0

1.8

3.2

3.6

6-91

4.6

4.5

4.5

4.6

4.8

4.6

4.6

4.0

3.4

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.1

2.0

3.0

3.1

2.7

7-91

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.7

4 .5

4.4

3.9

3.4

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.2

2.1

2.9

3.0

2.7

2.7

8-91

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.3

4.3

3.8

3.3

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.3

2.2

2.9

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.7

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

135.7
136.0
136.3
136.6

The CPI is for a ll urban consumers.




P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
Septem ber 1 3 , 1991

C on su m er

P r ic e

In d e x

-

F ood

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Month

In itial Month
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

1982-84=100

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91
131.1

2-90

8 .6

3-90

5.2

1.8

4-90

3.1

0.5

-0 .9

5-90

2.3

0.3

-0 .5

0.0

6-90

3.5

2.3

2.5

4.2

8.5

7-90

4.0

3.1

3.5

5.0

7.5

8-90

4.0

3.2

3.5

4.6

6.2

5.1

3.7

9-90

3.9

3.3

3.5

4.4

5.6

4.6

3.7

3.7

10-90

4.0

3.5

3.7

4.5

5.4

4.6

4.0

4.1

4.6

11-90

4.2

3.7

3.9

4.6

5.4

4.8

4.4

4.6

5.0

5.5

12-90

3.9

3.5

3.7

4.3

4 .9

4.3

3.8

3.9

3 .9

3.6

1.8

1-91

4.2

3.8

4.0

4.6

5.2

4.7

4.4

4.6

4.8

4.9

4.5

7.4

2-91

3.7

3.3

3.4

3.9

4.3

3.8

3.4

3.3

3.3

2.9

2.1

2.2

-2 .6

3-91

3.6

3.2

3.4

3.7

4.1

3.7

3.3

3.2

3.2

2.9

2.2

2.4

0.0

2.7

4-91

4.0

3.7

3.8

4.2

4.6

4.2

3.9

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.6

4.1

3.0

5.9

5-91

3.7

3.4

3.5

3.9

4.2

3.8

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.0

3.2

2.2

3.9

131.3
131.2
131.2
132.1
132.8

6.5

133.2
133.6
134.1
134.7
134.9
135.7
135.4
135.7
9.2

136.7
0.0

136.7
137.4

6-91

3.9

3.6

3.7

4.0

4.4

4.0

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.5

3.7

3.0

4.5

5.1

3.1

6.3

7-91

3.3

2.9

3.0

3.3

3 .5

3.1

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.1

2.2

1.3

2.1

2.0

-0 .3

-0 .4

-6 .8

8-91

2.9

2.6

2.6

2.8

3.0

2.7

2.4

2.3

2.1

1.9

1.5

1.4

0.6

1.2

0.9

-1 .1

-1 .5

-5 .1

-3 .5

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

136.6
136.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 13, 1991

C on su m er

P r ic e

In d e x

-

E n erg y

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Month

In itia l Month
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

2-90

-9 .9
-6 .7

-4 .2

-6 .0

-4 .0

-1 .8

-3 .4

-1 .2

1.2

1.9

7-90

-3 .4

-1 .7

0.0

0.0

1.9

-3 .6

8-90

4.4

7.3

10.7

13.6

20.0

26.7

12.3

16.2

20.8

25.5

34.0

44.2

76.4

17.1

21.3

26.3

31.3

39.6

49.0

72.3

75.3

64.4

11-90

15.9

19.4

23.5

27.2

33.3

39.1

52.4

48.0

31.7

5.5

12-90

13.8

16.7

19.9

22.6

26.9

30.4

38.6

32.4

18.0

0.0

1-91

9.8

12.0

14.3

16.0

18.7

20.4

24.9

18.0

5.2

7-91

86.8

10-90

6-91

66.5

9-90

5-91

-3 .7

6-90

4-91

0.0

5-90

3-91

-8 .3

4-90

2-91

-11.5

3-90

1982-84*100
1-91

97.5
96.8
96.8
96.5
7.7

97.1
96.8
101.0
106.4
110.9
111.4
-5 .3

110.9

-9 .4 -16.0 -25.6

108.2
103.9

2-91

5.1

6.6

8.0

8.9

10.4

10.7

12.9

5.8

-5 .5 -17.8 -2 4 .3 -32.4 -38.5

3-91

2.3

3.5

4 .5

5.0

5.9

5 .7

6.9

0.3

-9 .5 -19.7 -25.0 -30.7 -33.1 -27.1

4-91

1.6

2.6

3.5

3.8

4.5

4 .2

5.1

-0 .7

-9 .3 -17.9 -21.9 -25.6 -25.6 -18.1

5-91

2.6

3.6

4 .5

4.9

5.6

5.4

6.4

1.2

-6 .3 -13.5 -1 6 .3 -18.4 -16.5

-7 .5

4.2

6-91

1.7

2.6

3.4

3.6

4.2

3.9

4.6

-0 .1

-6 .8 -13.2 -1 5 .6 -17.2 -15.4

-8 .4

-1 .2

2.4 -11.2

7-91

1.3

2.2

2.9

3.0

3.5

3 .2

3.8

-0 .5

-6 .6 -12.3 -14.3 -15.5 -13.7

-7 .7

-2 .1

0.0

-8 .0

-4 .7

8-91

1.2

1.9

2.5

2.7

3.1

2.8

3.3

-0 .7

-6 .2 -11.4 -13.1 -14.0 -12.2

-6 .8

-2 .1

-0 .6

-6 .1

-3 .5

-2 .4

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91




101.2
-8 .0

100.5
18.1

101.9
100.9
100.5
100.3

P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
Septem ber 1 3 , 1991

3

P r o d u c e r Price I n d e x - Finished G o o d s
P e rc e n t C h a n g e

F r o m

P revious Y e a r

Seasonally A d ju ste d
P e rce n t

P e rce n t

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

P re p a re d

P ro d u cer

P r ic e

In d e x

-

by

F in is h e d

Federal

1991

R e serve

B a n k

o f St.

Louis

G oods

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Teriainal
Month

In itia l Month
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

1982 - 100

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

2-90

-1 .0
-1 .0

-1 .0

5-90

0.3

0.7

1.5

0.2

0.5

1.0

2.1

0.9

1.2

1.8

2.8

2.1

2.6

3.3

4.1

5.5

5.9

9.0

9-90

4.2

5.0

6.1

7.5

8.4

11.3

15.1

5.5

6.3

7.4

8.9

9.9

12.5

15.4

16.1

7-91

16.2

10-90

6-91

4.2

8-90

5-91

0.0

7-90

4-91

4.2

6-90

3-91

-1 .0

4-90

2-91

-1 .0

3-90

1-91

16.0

117.4
117.3
-1 .0

117.2
117.6
117.6
118.0
14.1

119.3
120.8
122.3

11-90

5.4

6.2

7.1

8.3

9.0

10.9

12.7

12.3

10.4

5.0

12-90

4.5

5.0

5.7

6.6

6.9

8.2

9.0

7.7

5.1

0.0

1-91

4.2

4.7

5.2

6.0

6.2

7.1

7.6

6.4

4.0

0.3

-1 .9

1.0

2-91

3.1

3.5

3.9

4.4

4.4

5.0

5.1

3.7

1.4

-1 .9

-4 .2

-3 .9

122.8
-4 .8

122.3
122.4
-8 .5

121.5

3-91

2.7

3.0

3.3

3.7

3.7

4.1

4.1

2.7

0.7

-2 .1

-3 .9

-3 .5

-5 .7

-2 .9

4-91

2.6

2.8

3.1

3.5

3.4

3.8

3.7

2.5

0.7

-1 .6

-2 .9

-2 .4

-3 .5

-1 .0

1.0

5-91

2.7

3.0

3.3

3.6

3.6

3.9

3.9

2.8

1.2

-0 .7

-1 .6

-1 .0

-1 .5

1.0

3.0

5.1

6-91

2.3

2.5

2.8

3.1

3.0

3 .2

3.1

2.1

0.7

-1 .1

-1 .9

-1 .5

-1 .9

-0 .2

0.7

0.5

-3 .9

7-91

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.7

2.5

2.7

2.6

1.6

0.3

-1 .3

-2 .1

-1 .7

-2 .1

-0 .8

-0 .2

-0 .7

-3 .4

-2 .9

8-91

2.1

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.7

1.8

0.5

-0 .9

-1 .5

-1.1

-1 .4

-0 .2

0.4

0.2

-1 .3

0.0

3.0

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91




121.2
121.3
121.8
121.4
121.1
121.4

P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
Septem ber 1 2 , 1991

4

Civilian E m p l o y m e n t a n d U n e m p l o y m e n t R a t e
Sea son a lly Ad ju ste d
M illions o f P e r s o n s

Percent

1985
S h a d e d

1986

a re a

rep re sen ts

a

P e rc e n ta g e s

a re a n n u a l

rates

1987

period

of business

of c h a n g e

1988

1989

1990

1991

recession.

fo r periods indicated.
P re p a re d

C iv ilia n

by

Federal

R e serve

B a n k o f St.

Louis

E m p lo y m e n t

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Month

In itia l Honth
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

Thousands of
Persons
118,074

2-90

1.3

3-90

1.5

1.6

4-90

0.5

0.1

-1 .5

5-90

0.8

0.7

0.2

1.9

6-90

0.6

0.4

0.0

0.7

-0 .4

7-90

-0 .1

-0 .4

-0 .9

-0 .7

-2 .0

-3 .5

8-90

-0 .4

-0 .6

-1 .1

-1 .0

-2 .0

-2 .7

-1 .9

9-90

-0 .1

-0 .3

-0 .6

-0 .4

-1 .0

-1 .2

0.0

2.0

10-90

-0 .2

-0 .4

-0 .7

-0 .6

-1 .1

-1 .3

-0 .5

0.2

-1 .5

11-90

-0 .6

-0 .8

-1 .1

-1 .0

-1 .5

-1 .7

-1 .3

-1 .0

-2 .5

-3 .5

12-90

-0 .3

-0 .5

-0 .7

-0 .7

-1 .0

-1 .1

-0 .6

-0 .3

-1 .0

-0 .8

1.9

1-91

-0 .9

-1 .1

-1 .3

-1 .3

-1 .7

-1 .9

-1 .6

-1 .6

-2 .4

-2 .7

-2 .3

-6.E

2-91

-0 .8

-1 .0

-1 .2

-1 .2

-1 .5

-1 .7

-1 .4

-1 .3

-2 .0

-2 .1

-1 .6

-3 .3

0.0

3-91

-0 .9

-1 .0

-1 .3

-1 .2

-1 .5

-1 .7

-1 .4

-1 .4

-1 .9

-2 .0

-1 .6

-2 .8

-0 .9

-1 .7

4-91

-0 .4

-0 .5

-0 .7

-0 .6

-0 .8

-0 .9

-0 .5

-0 .4

-0 .7

-0 .6

0.0

-0 .4

1.6

2.5

6.8

118,235
118,090
118,277
118,237
117,882
117,690
117,883
117,733
117,386
117,574
116,922
116,918
116,754
117,398

5-91

-0 .9

-1 .0

-1 .2

-1 .2

-1 .4

-1 .5

-1 .3

-1 .2

-1 .6

-1 .7

-1 .3

-2 .0

-0 .8

-1 .1

-0 .8

-7 .9

6-91

-0 .6

-0 .8

-0 .9

-0 .9

-1 .1

-1 .1

-0 .9

-0 .8

-1 .1

-1 .1

-0 .7

-1 .2

-0 .1

-0 .1

0.4

-2 .6

7-91

-0 .7

-0 .8

-1 .0

-0 .9

-1 .1

-1 .2

-1 .0

-0 .9

-1 .2

-1 .2

-0 .9

-1 .3

-0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .1

-2 .3

0.6

-1 .8

8-91

-0 .8

-0 .9

-1 .1

-1.1

-1 .3

-1 .3

-1 .1

-1 .1

-1 .4

-1 .3

-1 .1

-1 .5

-0 .7

-0 .9

-0 .7

-2 .5

-0 .6

-2 .4

-3.0

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91




116,591
3.1

116,884'
116,712
116,416

P ro p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
S e p te a b e r 6 , 1991

5

Payroll E m p l o y m e n t
Sea son a lly A d ju ste d

Millions of Persons

Millions o f

P e rs o n s

115

105

95

85

75

65
1986

1985
S h a d e d

a re a

re p re sen ts

a

P e rc e n ta g e s

a re a n n u a l

rates

1987

period

o f b u sin e ss

of c h a n g e

1988

1990

1989

1991

recession.

fo r period s indicated.
P re p a re d

P a y r o ll

b y

Federal

R e serve

B a n k

o f St.

Louis

E m p lo y m e n t

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Month

In itia l Month
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

2-90

2.9
1.9

0.8

2.5

1.9

2.0

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

4.1

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

0.0

5-90

7-90

1.6

4-90

6-90

4.2

3-90

5-90

Thousands oi
Persons
109,792
109,933
109,934

110,304

6-90

2.2

1.8

1.8

2.8

1.4

7-90

1.6

1.0

0.9

1.2

-0 .2

-1 .8

8-90

1.2

0.7

0.5

0.6

-0 .5

-1 .5

-1 .2

9-90

1.0

0.5

0.3

0.4

-0 .5

-1 .2

-0 .8

-0 .5

10-90

0.7

0.3

0.1

0.1

-0 .7

-1 .2

-1 .0

-1 .0

-1 .4

11-90

0.4

0.0

-0 .2

-0 .3

-1 .0

-1 .5

-1 .4

-1 .4

-1 .9

-2 .4

12-90

0.2

-0 .2

-0 .4

-0 .4

-1 .1

-1 .5

-1 .4

-1 .5

-1 .8

-2 .0

-1 .5

110,435
110,269
110,160
110,113
109,982
109,761
109,621

1-91

0.0

-0 .4

-0 .6

-0 .6

-1 .2

-1 .6

-1 .5

-1 .6

-1 .9

-2 .0

-1 .9

-2 .2

2-91

-0 .2

-0 .6

-0 .8

-0 .8

-1 .4

-1 .7

-1 .7

-1 .8

-2 .1

-2 .2

-2 .2

-2 .5

-2 .8

3-91

-0 .4

-0 .7

-0 .9

-1 .0

-1 .5

-1 .8

-1 .9

-1 .9

-2 .2

-2 .3

-2 .3

-2 .6

-2 .8

-2 .8

4-91

-0 .5

-0 .8

-1 .0

-1 .1

-1 .5

-1 .8

-1 .8

-1 .9

-2 .1

-2 .3

-2 .2

-2 .4

-2 .5

-2 .3

-1 .8

5-91

-0 .4

-0 .7

-0 .8

-0 .9

-1 .3

-1 .5

-1 .5

-1 .5

-1 .7

-1 .7

-1 .6

-1 .6

-1 .4

-1 .0

-0 .1

109,418
109,160
108,902
108,736
1.7

108,887

6-91

-0 .3

-0 .6

-0 .8

-0 .8

-1 .2

-1 .4

-1 .4

-1 .4

-1 .5

-1 .5

-1 .4

-1 .3

-1 .2

-0 .8

-0 .1

0.8

0.0

7-91

-0 .4

-0 .6

-0 .8

-0 .8

-1 .2

-1 .4

-1 .3

-1 .3

-1 .4

-1 .4

-1 .3

-1 .3

-1 .1

-0 .8

-0 .2

0.3

-0 .4

-0 .8

8-91

-0 .3

-0 .6

-0 .7

-0 .7

-1 .1

-1 .2

-1 .2

-1 .2

-1 .3

-1 .2

-1 .1

-1 .1

-0 .9

-0 .6

-0 .1

0.3

-0 .2

-0 .2

0.4

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91




108,885
108,812
108,846

P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e se rve Bank o f S t . L o u is
S e p te a b e r 6 , 1991

S e r v ic e -P r o d u c in g

E m p lo y m e n t

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Honth

In itia l Honth
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

Thousands of
Persons
84,453

2-90

3.3

3-90

3.3

3.2

4-90

2.6

2.3

1.3

5-90

3.4

3 .4

3.5

5.7

6-90

3.2

3 .2

3.2

4.1

2.6

7-90

2.4

2.3

2.0

2.3

0.6

-1 .4

8-90

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.6

0.3

-0 .8

-0 .3

84,678
84/769
85,163
85,342
85,242
85,223

9-90

1.9

1.7

1.4

1.4

0.4

-0 .3

0.2

0.7

10-90

1.7

1.5

1.2

1.2

0.3

-0 .2

0.2

0.4

11-90

1.5

1.3

1.1

1.0

0.3

-0 .2

0.1

0.3

0.1

0.0

12-90

1.3

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.2

-0 .2

0.0

0.1

-0 .1

-0 .2

-0 .5

1-91

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.1

-0 .2

0.0

0.0

-0 .1

-0 .2

-0 .3

-0 .1

85,271
0.1

85,277
85,280
85,246
85,237

2-91

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.5

-0 .1

-0 .4

-0 .2

•
‘■0.2

-0 .4

-0 .5

-0 .7

-0 .9

-1 .6

3-91

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.3

-0 .2

-0 .5

-0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .6

-0 .7

-0 .9

-1 .0

-1 .5

85,121

4-91

0.7

0.5

0.3

0.2

-0 .3

-0 .6

-0 .5

-0 .5

-0 .7

-0 .8

-0 .9

-1 .1

-1 .4

-1 .3

-1 .2

5-91

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.3

-0 .1

-0 .4

-0 .3

-0 .3

-0 .4

-0 .5

-0 .6

-0 .6

-0 .7

-0 .4

0.1

1.4

6-91

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.3

-0 .1

-0 .3

-0 .2

-0 .2

-0 .3

-0 .3

-0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .1

0.3

1.1

0.8

7-91

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.2

-0 .1

-0 .3

-0 .3

-0 .3

-0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .5

-0 .5

-0 .5

-0 .3

0.0

0.4

-0 .1

-1 .0

8-91

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.2

-0 .1

-0 .3

-0 .2

-0 .2

-0 .3

-0 .3

-0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .2

0.0

0.3

0.0

-0 .4

0.1

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

85,025

-1 .3

84,942
85,040
85,093
85,020
85,030

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 6 , 1991

G o o d s -P r o d u c in g

E m p lo y m e n t

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Honth

In itia l Honth
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

2-90

1.6
-0 .4

-4 .1

-0 .6

-3 .1

-2 .7

-0 .9

-2 .9

-2 .5

-1 .7

-1 .3

-2 .9

-2 .7

-2 .2

-2 .7

-1 .7

-3 .1

-3 .0

-2 .7

-3 .2

-3 .7

-2 .1

-3 .3

-3 .2

-3 .1

-3 .5

-3 .9

-4 .4

-4 .5

10-90

-2 .6

-3 .7

-3 .7

-3 .6

-4 .1

-4 .6

-5 .0

-5 .5

7-91

-4 .2

9-90

6-91

-3 .1

8-90

5-91

-2 .3

7-90

4-91

-1 .1

6-90

3-91

-4 .2

5-90

2-91

-3 .9

4-90

1-91

7.3

3-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

Thousands of
Persons
25,339
25,255
25,165
25,141
25,093
25,027
24,937
24,842

-6 .4

24,705

11-90

-3 .4

-4 .5

-4 .6

-4 .6

-5 .2

-5 .8

-6 .4

-7 .1

-8 .4 -10.4

12-90

-3 .5

-4 .5

-4 .6

-4 .7

-5 .2

-5 .6

-6 .1

-6 .6

-7 .3

-7 .8

-5 .1

1-91

-4 .0

-5 .0

-5 .1

-5 .2

-5 .7

-6 .1

-6 .6

-7 .1

-7 .8

-8 .2

-7 .1

-9 .1

2-91

-4 .2

-5 .1

-5 .2

-5 .3

-5 .8

-6 .2

-6 .7

-7 .1

-7 .6

-7 .9

-7 .0

-8 .0

-6 .8

3-91

-4 .5

-5 .3

-5 .5

-5 .6

-6 .0

-6 .4

-6 .8

-7 .2

-7 .6

-7 .9

-7 .2

-7 .9

-7 .3

-7 .8

4-91

-4 .5

-5 .2

-5 .4

-5 .4

-5 .8

-6 .2

-6 .5

-6 .8

-7 .1

-7 .2

-6 .6

-7 .0

-6 .2

-6 .0

24,481
24,375
24,181
24,039
23,877
-4 .1

23,794

5-91

-4 .0

-4 .7

-4 .8

-4 .8

-5 .1

-5 .4

-5 .6

-5 .8

-5 .9

-5 .9

-5 .1

-5 .1

-4 .1

-3 .2

-0 .8

2.7

6-91

-4 .0

-4 .6

-4 .7

-4 .7

-5 .0

-5 .2

-5 .4

-5 .5

-5 .6

-5 .5

-4 .8

-4 .7

-3 .8

-3 .1

-1 .4

-0 .1

-2 .7

7-91

-3 .7

-4 .3

-4 .4

-4 .4

-4 .6

-4 .8

-4 .9

-5 .0

-5 .1

-4 .9

-4 .2

-4 .1

-3 .2

-2 .4

-1 .1

0.0

-1 .4

0.0

8-91

-3 .5

-4 .0

-4 .1

-4 .0

-4 .2

-4 .4

-4 .5

-4 .5

-4 .5

-4 .3

-3 .6

-3 .4

-2 .6

-1 .8

-0 .6

0.3

-0 .5

0.6

1.2

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91




23,847
23,792
23,792
23,816

P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
Septem ber 6 , 1991

7

C h a n g e i n t h e E m p l o y m e n t C o s t I n d e x a n d Its C o m p o n e n t s
P e rce n t C h a n g e

F r o m

P re vio us Y e a r

S easonally A d ju ste d
P e rce n t

P e rce n t

Total c o m p e n s a tio n

is th e s u m

o f benefits a n d

w a g e s

a n d

salaries

for private industry w orkers.
P re p a re d

E m p lo y m e n t

C o st

In d e x

-

T o ta l

by

Federal

R e serve

B a n k

o f St.

Louis

C o m p e n s a tio n

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-86

In itia l Quarter
4-86

4-86

2.9

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

June 1989 * 100
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2.7

1-87

1-87

3.1

90.2
90.9

2-87

3.0

3.1

3.1

3-87

3.2

3.4

3.6

4.0

4-87

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.7

3.5

1-88

3.6

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.4

5.2

2-88

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.5

4.6

5.2

5.2

91.6
92.5
93.3
94.5
95.7

3-88

3.8

4.0

4.1

4.3

4.4

4.7

4.5

3.8

4-88

4.0

4.1

4.3

4.5

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.4

5.1

1-89

4.0

4.1

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.7

4.6

4.3

4.6

4.2

2-89

4.1

4.2

4.3

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.6

4.5

4.7

4.5

96.6
97.8
98.8
4.9

100.0

3-89

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.9

4.8

5.1

5.3

4-89

4.2

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.6

4.8

4.7

4.9

4.9

1-90

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.7

4.7

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.1

5.0

5.6

2-90

4.3

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.8

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.9

4.9

5.1

5.1

5.0

5 .3

3-90

4.3

4.5

4.5

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.8

4.7

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.9

4.8

5.0

4.7

4 .3

4-90

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.6

4 .7

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4 .6

4.7

4.4

4.0

3 .8

101.3
4.4

102.4
103.8
5.1

105.1
106.2
107.2

1-91

4.3

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.6

4 .7

4.4

4 .2

4.2

4.6

2-91

4.4

4.4

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.8

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.7

4.9

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

108.4
109.7

Data are for the last aonth of quarter.




P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
Ju ly 3 0 , 1991

8

Industrial P r o d u c t i o n
Sea son a lly A d ju ste d

1987-100

1987-100

115

110

105

100

95

90

85
1986

1985
S h a d e d

1987

a re a

re p re sen ts

a

P e rc e n ta g e s

a re a n n u a l

rates of c h a n g e

period

o f b u siness

1988

1990

1989

1991

recession.

fo r periods indicated.
P re p a re d

In d u s tr ia l

b y

Federal

R e serve

B a n k

o f St.

Louis

P r o d u c tio n

(Compounded Annual Rales of Change)
Terainal
Month

In itia l Month
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

1967 - 100

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

2-90

11.8

3-90

8.1

4.5

4-90

4.9

1.7

-1 .1

5-90

5.4

3.4

2.8

6.8

6-90

5.9

4.5

4.5

7.4

8.0

7-90

5.5

4.3

4.2

6.0

5.6

3.3

«-90

4.8

3.7

3.6

4.8

4.1

2.2

1.1

9-90

4.4

3.3

3.1

4.0

3.3

1.8

1.1

10-90

3.0

1.9

1.6

2.0

1.1

-0 .5

-1 .8

-3 .2

11-90

0.9

-0 .2

-0 .8

-0 .8

-2 .0

-3 .9

-5 .6

-7 .7 -11.8 -16.1

12-90

-0 .3

-1 .4

-2 .1

-2 .2

-3 .4

-5 .2

-6 .8

-8 .7 -11.7 -13.9 -11.5

1-91

-0 .8

-1 .9

-2 .5

-2 .7

-3 .8

-5 .4

-6 .8

-8 .3 -10.5 -11.5

-9 .1

-6 .5

2-91

-1 .5

-2 .6

-3 .2

-3 .4

-4 .5

-5 .9

-7 .2

-8 .5 -10.3 -11.0

-9 .3

-8 .1

-9 .7

3-91

-2 .0

-3 .0

-3 .6

-3 .8

-4 .8

-6 .1

-7 .2

-8 .4

-9 .9 -10.4

-8 .9

-8 .0

-8 .7

-7 .7

4-91

-1 .5

-2 .4

-2 .9

-3 .0

-3 .9

-5 .0

-5 .9

-6 .7

-7 .8

-7 .8

-6 .1

-4 .7

-4 .1

-1 .1

5.9

5-91

-0 .8

-1 .6

-2 .0

-2 .0

-2 .7

-3 .7

-4 .3

-4 .9

-5 .6

-5 .4

-3 .5

-1 .8

-0 .6

2.7

8.3

10.7

6-91

-0 .1

-C.8

-1 .2

-1 .2

-1 .8

-2 .5

-3 .1

-3 .5

-4 .0

-3 .5

-1 .6

0.2

1.6

4.6

9.1

10.7

10.6

7-91

0.3

-0 .3

-0 .6

-0 .6

-1 .1

-1 .8

-2 .2

-2 .5

-2 .8

-2 .3

-0 .4

1.3

2.6

5.3

8.8

9.8

9.4

8.1

8-91

0.4

-0 .2

-0 .5

-0 .4

-0 .9

-1 .5

-1 .8

-2 .1

-2 .4

-1 .9

-0 .1

1.4

2.6

4.8

7.5

7.9

6.9

5.1

2.2

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

108.5
108.9




108.8
109.4
110.1
110.4
110.5
1.1

110.6
-7 .3

109.9
108.3
107.2
106.6
105.7
105.0
105.5
106.4
107.3
1G8.0
108.2

P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
Septem ber 1 7 , 1991

P e r s o n a l I n c o m e in 1 9 8 2 Dollars
S ea son a lly A d ju ste d

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions o f D ollars

3.6

3.3

3.0

2.7

2.4
1985
T h e

1986

p e rson a l c o n s u m p tio n

S h a d e d

1987

expe n d itu re s

a re a

re p re s e n ts

a

P e rc e n ta g e s

a re a n n u a l

1988

d e f la t o r is

period o f b u sin e ss

rates o f c h a n g e

u se d to

1989

ca lcu late

real

1990

p e rsonal in c o m e

recession.

fo r periods indicated.
P re p a re d

D is p o s a b le

1991

P e rso n a l

In co m e

in

b y

1982

Federal R e serve

B a n k o f St.

Louis

D o lla r s

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

In itia l Month
1-90

2-90

3.3

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

Billions of Dollari
Annual Rate;
7-91

3.3

3-90

2-90

2,900.9
3.3

2,908.7

4-90

1.1

0.0

-3 .1

5-90

0.8

-0 .1

-1 .7

-0 .2

6-90

1.2

0.6

-0 .2

1.3

2.8

7-90

1.2

0.8

0.2

1.3

2.1

1.5

8-90

0.2

-0 .3

-1 .0

-0 .4

-0 .5

-2 .1

-5 .5

9-90

-0 .3

-0 .8

-1 .5

-1 .2

-1 .4

-2 .8

-4 .8

-4 .1

10-90

-1 .4

-1 .9

-2 .6

-2 .6

-3 .0

-4 .4

-6 .3

-6 .7

-9 .2

11-90

-1 .0

-1 .4

-2 .0

-1 .8

-2 .1

-3 .0

-4 .1

-3 .7

-3 .5

2.6

12-90

-0 .4

-0 .7

-1 .2

-0 .9

-1 .0

-1 .6

-2 .2

-1 .4

-0 .5

4.2

2,901.0
2,900.4
2,907.1
2,910.6
2,896.8
2,886.8
2,863.7
2,869.9
5.8

2,883.5

1-91

-1 .2

-1 .6

-2 .1

-2 .0

-2 .2

-2 .9

-3 .6

-3 .2

-3 .0

-0 .8

-2 .5 -10.2

2-91

-1 .1

-1 .4

-1 .9

-1 .7

-1 .9

-2 .5

-3 .0

-2 .6

-2 .3

-0 .5

-1 .5

3-91

-0 .7

-1 .0

-1 .4

-1 .2

-1 .3

-1 .7

-2 .1

-1 .6

-1 .2

0.5

4-91

-0 .8

-1 .0

-1 .4

-1 .2

-1 .3

-1 .7

-2 .0

-1 .6

-1 .2

0.2

5-91

-0 .4

-0 .7

-0 .9

-0 .8

-0 .8

-1 .1

-1 .4

-0 .9

-0 .5

6-91

-0 .1

-0 .3

-0 .5

-0 .3

-0 .3

-0 .6

-0 .7

-0 .2

7-91

-0 .1

-0 .3

-0 .5

-0 .4

-0 .4

-0 .6

-0 .8

8-91

0.0

-0 .2

-0 .4

-0 .2

-0 .2

-0 .4

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90




2,857.8

-5 .0

0.5

-0 .1

-2 .0

2.4

4.4

-0 .3

-1 .8

1.1

1.5

-1 .4

0.8

0.5

-0 .5

2.0

2.5

1.6

4.7

0.2

1.4

1.3

0.5

2.8

3.4

3.1

5.3

6.0

-0 .3

0.0

1.1

0.9

0.3

2.1

2.5

2.0

3.1

2.3

-1 .2

-0 .6

-0 .1

0.2

1.2

1.1

0.5

2.1

2.4

2.0

2.9

2.3

0.4

2.1

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

2,858.9
2,869.2
2,865.9
2,876.9
2,890.9
2,887.9
2,893.0

P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
Septem ber 2 7 , 1991

10

Retail Sales
Sea son a lly A d ju ste d
Billions o f D ollars

Billions o f D o llars

1986

1985
S h a d e d
T h e

a re a

C P I is

re p re sen ts

u se d

a

to deflate

P e rc e n ta g e s a re

a n n u a l

1987

period

o f b u sin e ss

1988

1989

1990

1991

recession.

retail s a le s d a ta .

ra tes o f c h a n g e

fo r pe riod s indicated.

R e t a il

S a le s

in

1 9 8 2 -8 4

D o lla r s

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Tarainai
Month

In itia l Month
1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

7-91

Millions of
Dollars
117,307

2-90

-9 .4

3-90

-9 .0

-8 .6

4-90

-8 .6

-8 .2

-7 .8

5-90

-7 .8

-7 .2

-6 .6

-5 .3

6-90

-5 .5

-4 .5

-3 .2

-0 .7

116,434
115,649
115,126
4.0

115,505

7-90

-4 .9

-4 .0

-2 .8

-1 .1

1.0

-1 .9

8-90

-5 .1

-4 .3

-3 .5

-2 .3

-1 .3

-3 .9

-5 .9

9-90

-4 .1

-3 .3

-2 .4

-1 .3

-0 .3

-1 .7

-1 .6

2.9

10-90

-4 .7

-4 .1

-3 .4

-2 .7

-2 .2

-3 .6

-4 .2

-3 .4

-9 .3

11-90

-4 .2

-3 .6

-2 .9

-2 .2

-1 .7

-2 .8

-3 .1

-2 .1

-4 .5

12-90

-6 .1

-5 .8

-5 .5

-5 .2

-5 .2

-6 .7

-7 .6

-8 .0 -11.4 -12.4 -23.7

1-91

-7 .3

-7 .1

-7 .0

-6 .9

-7 .1

-8 .5

-9 .6 -10.3 -13.4 -14.7 -21.4 -19.0

2-91

-5 .0

-4 .7

-4 .3

-3 .9

-3 .8

-4 .7

-5 .1

-5 .0

-6 .5

-5 .8

-7 .8

1.4

26.8

3-91

-4 .4

-4 .0

-3 .6

-3 .3

-3 .0

-3 .8

-4 .0

-3 .8

-4 .8

-3 .9

-5 .0

2.2

14.8

3.9

4-91

-4 .6

-4 .2

-3 .9

-3 .5

-3 .4

-4 .1

-4 .3

-4 .1

-5 .1

-4 .3

-5 .3

0.0

7.2

-1 .4

-6 .4

5-91

-3 .7

-3 .3

-2 .9

-2 .5

-2 .3

-2 .8

-2 .9

-2 .6

-3 .2

-2 .3

-2 .8

2.1

8.1

2.5

1.8

10.8

6-91

-3 .6

-3 .3

-2 .9

-2 .5

-2 .3

-2 .8

-2 .9

-2 .6

-3 .2

-2 .4

-2 .8

1.2

5.8

1.1

0.1

3.6

-3 .1

7-91

-3 .3

-2 .9

-2 .5

-2 .2

-1 .9

-2 .4

-2 .4

-2 .1

-2 .6

-1 .8

-2 .1

1.5

5.4

1.5

0.9

3.5

0.1

8-91

-3 .7

-3 .3

-3 .0

-2 .7

-2 .6

-3 .0

-3 .1

-2 .9

-3 .4

-2 .8

-3 .1

-0 .2

2.9

-0 .7

-1 .6

-0 .3

-3 .8

-4 .1 -10.9

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9t90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

115,324
114,739
115,017
114,086
0.5

114,134
111,587
109,646
111,837
112,198
111,579
112,535
112,237
3.3

112,545
111,464

7-91

R e t a il s a le s d a ta d e fla te d b y C PI-U (1 9 8 2 -8 4 *1 0 0 ).




P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
S e p te a b e r 1 3 , 1991

11

Inventories C o m p a r e d W i t h M o n t h l y Sales
M an u fa ctu rin g

a n d

T ra d e

Seasonally A d ju ste d

1.48

1.44

------ 1
------ 1
------ 1
------ 1
------ 1
------ 1
------ 1
------ j------ r
t------ 1

1985
S h a d e d

a re a

1986
repre sen ts

a

1987

period

o f b u sin e ss

1988

recession.
P re p a re d

B u s in e s s

b y Federal R e serve

B a n k

o f St.

Louis

In v e n to r ie s

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terninai
Month
12-89
1-90

-0 .2

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91

Millions of
Dollars

0.7

2-90

In itia l Month
1-90

810,742
-1 .1

810,024

3-90

0.3

0.1

1.2

4-90

1.0

1.1

2.2

3.2

5-90

1.9

2.2

3.3

4.4

5.6

6-90

0.7

0.7

1.2

1.1

0.1

-5 .1

7-90

1.8

2.0

2.6

2.9

2.8

1.5

8.5

8-90

2.5

2.7

3.3

3.8

3.9

3.4

7.9

810,830
812,976
816,667
813,118
818,689
7.2

823,468

9-90

2.8

3.1

3.7

4.1

4.2

3.9

7.1

6.4

5.5

10-90

3.0

3.2

3.8

4.2

4.3

4.1

6.5

5.9

5.2

4 .8

11-90

3.0

3.2

3.7

4.0

4.1

3.9

5.8

5.1

4.4

3.9

3.0

12-90

2.1

2.2

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.2

3.4

2.4

1.3

-0 .1

-2 .5

-7 .7

1-91

2.4

2.6

2.9

3.1

3.0

2.7

3.9

3.1

2.3

1.6

0.5

-0 .7

827,145
830,414
832,464
826,941
6 .7

831,445

2-91

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.3

2.3

1.9

2.8

2.0

1.2

0.3

-0 .8

-2 .0

0.9

3-91

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.1

0.9

0.4

1.1

0.2

-0 .8

-1 .8

-3 .1

-4 .6

-3 .5

-8 .2 -11.8

4-91

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.0

0.6

-0 .3

-1 .2

-2 .1

-3 .2

-4 .4

-3 .6

-6 .8

-7 .9

-3 .9

-4 .6

828,201
819,615

5-91

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

-0 .1

-0 .6

-0 .2

-1 .0

-1 .9

-2 .8

-3 .8

-4 .9

-4 .4

-7 .0

-7 .7

-5 .6

-7 .3

6-91

-0 .3

-0 .3

-0 .3

-0 .4

-0 .6

-1 .1

-0 .7

-1 .5

-2 .4

-3 .2

-4 .2

-5 .2

-4 .7

-6 .9

-7 .4

-6 .0

-7 .0

-6 .6

7-91

-0 .5

-0 .5

-0 .5

-0 .6

-0 .8

-1 .3

-1 .0

-1 .7

-2 .5

-3 .3

-4 .1

-5 .0

-4 .6

-6 .4

-6 .7

-5 .4

-6 .0

-5 .2

-3 .9

12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

'S
1
e

816,893

10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

5-91

6-91




811,713
807,105
804,453

P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
Sep teM b er 1 6 , 1991

12

Gross National P r o d u c t
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions o f Dollars

Trillions o f

1985
S h a d e d

a re a

P e rc e n ta g e s

1986
repre sen ts

a

a re

rates

a n n u a l

1987

period

of b u sin e ss

of c h a n g e

Dollars

1988

1989

1990

recession.

fo r periods indicated.
P re p a re d

G ro ss

1991

N a tio n a l

P ro d u ct

in

1982

b y

Federal

R e s e rve

B a n k o f St.

Louis

D o lla r s

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Quarter

In itia l Quarter
3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-91
3,733.6

4-86

2.3

1-87

3.7

5.2

3,781.2

2-87

3.9

4.7

4.2

3-87

3.9

4.5

4.2

4.1

4-87

4.5

5.0

4.9

5.3

6.6

3,820.3
3,858.9
3,920.7

1-88

4.6

5.0

5.0

5.3

5.9

5.1

2-88

4.4

4.8

4.7

4.9

5.1

4.4

3.6

3-88

4.2

4 .5

4.4

4.4

4.5

3.8

3.1

2.7

4-88

4.1

4 .3

4.1

4.1

4.1

3.5

3.0

2.7

2.7

3,970.2
4,005.8
4,032.1
4,059.3

1-89

4.0

4 .2

4.1

4.1

4.1

3.6

3 .2

3.0

3.2

3.6

2-89

3.8

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.2

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.6

1.6

3-89

3.6

3 .7

3 .6

3.5

3.4

3.0

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.3

1.7

1.7

4-89

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

2.7

2.3

2.1

2.0

1.8

1.2

1.0

0.3

1-90

3.2

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.6

2.2

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.3

1.2

1.0

1.7

2-90

3.0

3.1

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.3

2.0

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.2

1.0

0.8

1.1

0.4

3-90

2.9

3.0

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.3

2.0

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.2

1.1

1.0

1.2

0.9

1.4

4-90

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.4

2.3

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.3

1.2

0.8

0.7

0.5

0.5

0.1

-0 .1

-1 .6

1-91

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.1

1.9

1.6

1.3

1.1

0.9

0.7

0.3

0.2

-0 .1

-0 .2

-0 .6

-1 .0

-2 .2

-2 .8

2-91

2.2

2.2

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.4

1.1

0.9

0.8

0.6

0.3

0.1

-0 .1

-0 .2

-0 .6

-0 .9

-1 .6

-1 .7

-0 .5

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

4,095.7
4,112.2
4,129.7
4,133.2
4,150.6
4,155.1
4,170.0
4,153.4
4,124.1
4,118.9

Second q u a rte r 1991 d a ta a re f in a l e s t ia a t e s .




P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
Sep tem ber 2 6 , 1991

13

Implicit P r i c e Deflator
P e rce n t C h a n g e

F r o m

P revious Y e a r

Seasonally A d ju ste d
P e rc e n t

P e rce n t

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989
P r e p o r e d

Im p lic it

P r ic e

1990

b y

F e d e r a l

1991

R e s e r v e

B a n k

o f

S t.

L o u is

D e fla to r

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Quarter

In itial Quarter
3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

1982 * 100
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

4-86

1.8

1-87

2.6

3.5

115.1

2-87

2.8

3 .3

3.1

3-87

3.0

3.4

3 .3

3.5

4-87

2.7

3.0

2.8

2.6

1.7

1-88

2.7

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.2

2.7

2-88

3.0

3.2

3.1

3.1

2.9

3.6

4.4

3-88

3.2

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

4.0

4.6

4.7

4-88

3.3

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

4.1

4.6

4.7

4.7

1-89

3.4

3.6

3.6

3 .7

3.7

4.1

4.4

4.4

4.3

3.9

2-89

3.4

3 .6

3.6

3.7

3.7

4.1

4.3

4.3

4.2

3.9

3.9

3-89

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.1

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.2

4-89

3.5

3 .6

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.9

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.8

1-90

3.6

3 .7

3.7

3.8

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.2

4.1

3.9

3.9

3.9

4 .3

4.8

2-90

3.6

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.9

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.4

4.7

4.7

3-90

3.6

3 .8

3.8

3.8

3.9

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.3

4.4

4.2

3 .7

4-90

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.8

3.9

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.8

4.0

4.0

3.7

3.2

2.8

1-91

3.7

3 .8

3.8

3 .8

3.9

4.0

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.2

4.2

4.1

3.9

4.0

5.2

2-91

3.7

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.9

4.1

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.2

4.3

4 .2

4.0

4 .2

4.9

4.5

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

116.1
117.0
118.0
118.5

The deflator is for Gross National Product.




119.3
120.6
122.0
123.4
124.6
125.8
126.8
128.0
129.5
131.0
132.2
133.1
134.8
136.3

Second quarter 1991 data are final estiaates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Septeaber 26, 1991

14

F in a l

S a le s

in

1982

D o lla r s

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Quarter

In itia l Quarter
3-86

4-86

2.5

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-91

3.9

1-87

4-86

3,754.4
1.0

3,763.9
3,803.3

2-87

3.1

2.6

4.3

3-87

3.6

3.4

4.6

5.0

4-87

3.3

3.1

3.9

3.7

2.3

1-88

3.9

3.9

4.7

4.8

4.7

7.1

3,850.3
3,872.3
3,939.2
3,988.9

2-88

4.1

4.1

4.8

4.9

4.8

6.1

5.1

3-88

3.7

3.7

4.1

4.1

3.9

4.4

3.1

1.1

4-88

3.8

3.8

4.2

4.2

4.0

4.5

3.6

2.8

4.6

1-89

3.7

3.6

4.0

3.9

3.8

4.1

3.3

2.7

3.5

3,999.5
4,045.2
4,069.6

2 4

2-89

3.5

3.4

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.7

3.0

2.4

2.9

2 1

3.4

3.3

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.4

2.8

2.3

2.6

2 0

1.8

4,086.6

1.7

3-89

4,105.1

1.8

4,114.4

4-89

3.2

3.1

3.3

3.2

3.0

3.1

2.5

2.1

2.3

1 7

1.5

1.4

0.9

1-90

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.2

2.7

2.3

2.5

2 1

2.0

2.2

2.3

3 .8

2-90

2.9

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.7

2.8

2.3

1.9

2.1

1 6

1.5

1.4

1.3

1.5

4,152.8
4,145.6

-0 .7

4,165.3

3-90

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.3

1.9

2.1

1 7

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.7

0.6

1.9

4-90

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.2

1.9

2.0

1 7

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.6

0.9

1.7

1.4

1-91

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.1

1.7

1.4

1.5

1 1

1.0

0.9

0.7

0.7

-0 .1

0.1

-0 .8

-2 .9

2-91

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.0

2.0

1.6

1.3

1.4

1 0

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.6

0.0

0.2

-0 .4

-1 .3

0.3

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

4,179.8
4,149.0
4,152.2

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 26, 1991

P e rso n a l

C o n s u m p tio n

E x p e n d itu r e s

in

19 82

D o lla r s

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Quarter

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-86

1.4
2.5

2.6

2.9

3.2

4.4

2.3

2.3

2.8

1.9

3.0

3.2

3.8

3.6

3.2

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

-0 .4

1-88

Billions of Dollars
4-89

4.3

4-87

In itia l Quarter
Annual Rates
4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89

3-88

4.5

3-87

2-88

0.7

2-87

1-88

2.2

1-87

4-87

2,477.8
2,482.2
2,509.9
2,536.6
2,534.2
6.9

2,576.8

2-88

3.0

3.1

3.6

3.4

3.0

4.8

2.7

3-88

3.0

3.2

3.6

3.4

3.1

4.3

3.1

3.5

4-88

3.1

3.2

3.6

3.4

3.2

4.1

3.2

3.5

3.5

1-89

2.7

2.8

3.1

2.9

2.6

3.2

2.3

2.2

1.6

-0 .3

2-89

2.6

2.7

2.9

2.7

2.4

2.9

2.1

2.0

1.5

0.5

1.3

3-89

2.8

2.8

3.0

2.9

2.7

3.1

2.5

2.5

2.3

1.8

2.9

4.6

4-89

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.0

1.9

1.6

1.2

1.7

1.9

-0 .8

1-90

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.8

1.5

1.2

1.5

1.6

0.1

1.1

2-90

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.0

2.2

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.0

1.3

1.3

0.2

0.7

0.2

3-90

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.1

2.3

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.3

1.5

1.6

0.8

1.3

1.5

2.7

4-90

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.8

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.7

0.8

0.7

-0 .1

0.1

-0 .2

-0 .4

-3 .4

1-91

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.1

1.0

0.7

0.4

0.5

0.4

-0 .3

-0 .2

-0 .5

-0 .8

-2 .4

-1 .5

2-91

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.6

1.2

1.1

0.9

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.1

0.3

0.1

0.1

-0 .8

0.5

2.5

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2,594.1
2,616.4
2,638.8
2,636.7
2,645.3
2,675.3
2,669.9
2,677.3
2,678.8
2,696.8
2,673.6
2,663.7
2,680.5

Second q u a rte r 1991 d a ta a re f in a l e s t ia a t e s .




P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
S e p te a b e r 2 6 , 1991

15

R e s id e n tia l

F ix e d

In v e stm e n t

in

1982

D o lla r s

(Compounded Annual Rales of Change)
Terainal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

4-86

-4.0
-1 .3

-2 .1

-2 .3

-3 .2

-0 .6

-1 .7

-2 .2

-0 .2

-2 .4

-2 .6

-3 .2

-1 .9

-3 .9

-3 .1

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-91

0.6

1-88

1-89

-5 .3

4-87

4-88

4.4

3-87

3-88

-8 .1

2-87

2-88

0.4

1-87

1-88

-6 .8

200.3
196.1
198.2
195.5
195.8
192.4

2-88

-1 .3

-1 .6

-0 .2

-1 .3

0.1

-0 .2

6.8

3-88

-1 .1

-1 .3

-0 .1

-1 .0

0.2

0.0

3.6

0.4

4-88

-1 .0

-1 .2

-0 .1

-0 .9

0.0

-0 .1

2.2

0.0

-0.4

1-89

-1 .3

-1 .5

-0 .6

-1 .3

-0 .6

-0 .8

0.7

-1 .2

-2.0

-3 .6

2-89

-2 .2

-2 .5

-1 .8

-2 .6

-2 .2

-2 .6

-1 .8

-3 .8

-5.2

-7 .5 -11.3

3-89

-2 .7

-3 .0

-2 .4

-3 .2

-2 .9

-3 .4

-2 .8

-4 .6

-5.8

-7 .6

-9 .5

-7 .6

4-89

-2 .9

-3 .2

-2 .7

-3 .4

-3 .2

-3 .6

-3 .2

-4 .8

-5.8

-7 .1

-8 .2

-6 .6

-5 .5

1-90

-1 .7

-1 .9

-1 .3

-1 .8

-1 .5

-1 .7

-1 .1

-2 .1

-2.6

-3 .0

-2 .8

0.1

4.3

195.6
195.8
195.6
193.8
188.1
184.4
181.8
15.1

188.3

2-90

-2 .4

-2 .6

-2 .1

-2 .7

-2 .4

-2 .7

-2 .2

-3 .3

-3.8

-4 .4

-4 .6

-2 .8

-1 .2

3-90

-3 .6

-3 .8

-3 .5

-4 .1

-4 .0

-4 .4

-4 .2

-5 .3

-6.0

-6 .8

-7 .3

-6 .5

-6 .2

-6 .4 -15.6 -19.8

173.0

4-90

-4 .7

-5 .0

-4 .8

-5 .4

-5 .4

-5 .9

-5 .8

-7 .0

-7.8

-8 .6

-9 .3

-9 .0

-9 .3 -10.2 -17.3 -20.2 -20.6

163.3

1-91

-6 .0

-6 .3

-6 .2

-6 .9

-7 .0

-7 .5

-7 .6

-8 .8

-9.7 -10.7 -11.5 -11.5 -12.2 -13.4 -19.4 -21.9 -23.0 -25.3

2-91

-5 .6

-5 .9

-5 .8

-6 .4

-6 .4

-6 .9

-6 .9

-8 .0

-8.7

-9 .5 -10.1 -10.0 -10.3 -11.1 -15.6 -16.6 -15.6 -12.9

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

1.1 -11.2

4-89

1-90

182.8

2-90

3-90

4-90

151.8
1.6

152.4

1-91

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
September 26, 1991

N o n r e s id e n tia l

F ix e d

In v e stm e n t

in

1982

D o lla r s

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Quarter

3-86

4-86

0.2

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

In itial Quarter
Annual Rates
4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89

3-88

Billions of Dollars
4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

4.5

1-87

4-86

435.7
-4 .0

431.3

2-87

4.0

3 .8

12.1

3-87

7.1

8.0

14.5

17.0

4-87

5.8

6.1

9 .7

8.5

0.6

1-88

6.7

7 .2

10.1

9.5

5.9

11.4

2-88

7.9

8.5

11.2

11.0

9.1

13.5

15.7

3-88

7.1

7.5

9.6

9.1

7.1

9.4

8.4

1.6

4-88

5.6

5 .7

7.1

6.3

4.3

5.3

3.3

-2 .4

-6 .3

1-89

5.9

6.0

7.4

6.7

5.1

6.0

4.7

1.2

1.0

8.9

2-89

6.0

6.1

7 .3

6.7

5.3

6.1

5.1

2.6

2.9

7.9

6.9

3-89

6.0

6.1

7 .2

6.7

5.5

6.2

5.3

3.3

3.8

7.4

6.6

6.3

4-89

5.2

5 .3

6 .2

5.6

4.4

4.9

4.0

2.1

2.2

4.5

3.0

1.2

-3 .8

1-90

5.2

5.3

6.1

5.5

4.4

4.9

4.1

2.5

2.7

4.6

3.5

2.4

0.5

5.0

2-90

4.5

4.5

5.2

4.6

3.6

3.9

3.1

1.6

1.6

3.0

1.8

0.6

-1 .3

0.0

-4 .7

3-90

4.8

4 .8

5.4

5.0

4.0

4.3

3.6

2.4

2.5

3.8

3.0

2.2

1.2

2.9

1.8

8.9

4-90

4.5

4.5

5.1

4.6

3.7

4.0

3.3

2.1

2.2

3.3

2.5

1.8

0.9

2.2

1.2

4.4

443.8
461.6
462.3
475.0
492.6
494.6
486.6
497.1
505.5
513.3
508.4
514.6
508.4
519.3
519.4

0.1

1-91

3.2

3.1

3.6

3.1

2.1

2.2

1.5

0.3

0.2

0.9

0.0

-1 .0

-2 .2

-1 .8

-3 .5

-3 .0

-8 .5 -16.3

2-91

3.1

3.0

3.5

2.9

2.1

2.2

1.5

0.4

0.3

1.0

0.1

-0 .7

-1 .7

-1 .3

-2 .5

-1 .9

-5 .3

-7 .9

1.4

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

496.8
498.5

Second q u a rte r 1991 d a ta a re f in a l e s t ia a t e s .




P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
S e p te a b e r 2 6 , 1991

16

E x p o rts

in

1982

D o lla r s

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Quarter

In itia l Quarter
3-86

4-86

9 .8

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

B illions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-91

7.1

1-87

4-86

406.5
12.7

418.8

2-87

13.7

17.2

21.9

3-87

15.4

18.3

21.3

20.6

4-87

17.1

19.8

22.3

22.4

24.3

1-88

19.5

22.1

24.6

25.5

28.0

31.7

2-88

17.2

18.9

20.2

19.8

19.6

17.2

4.4

3-88

15.6

16.9

17.6

16.8

15.8

13.2

4.9

5.4

4-88

15.7

16.9

17.5

16.8

16.0

14.0

8.7

10.9

16.7

1-89

15.8

16.8

17.3

16.6

16.0

14.4

10.4

12.5

16.3

15.8

2-89

15.4

16.3

16.7

16.1

15.5

14.1

10.8

12.5

15.0

14.1

12.4

3-89

14.0

14.7

14.9

14.1

13.3

11.9

8.9

9.8

10.9

9.0

5.8

-0 .5

4-89

14.0

14.6

14.8

14.1

13.4

12.1

9.5

10.4

11.4

10.1

8.3

6.3

13.5

440.1
461.2
487.0
521.7
527.3
534.3
555.3
576.1
593.2
592.5
611.6

1-90

13.8

14.3

14.5

13.8

13.2

12.0

9.7

10.5

11.4

10.4

9.0

7.9

12.4

11.2

2-90

12.4

12.8

12.8

12.1

11.4

10.1

8.0

8 .4

8 .9

7.6

6.1

4.5

6.3

2.8

628.1
-5 .0

620.1
630.5

3-90

12.1

12.4

12.4

11.7

11.0

9.8

7.9

8 .3

8.6

7.5

6.2

5.0

6.4

4.1

0.8

6 .9

4-90

12.0

12.3

12.3

11.6

11.0

9.9

8.2

8 .5

8 .9

8.0

6.9

6.0

7.3

5.8

4.1

8 .9

11.0

647.2
648.0

1-91

11.3

11.6

11.5

10.9

10.2

9.2

7.5

7 .8

8.0

7.1

6.1

5.2

6.2

4.7

3.2

6.0

5 .6

0.5

2-91

11.0

11.2

11.1

10.5

9.8

8.8

7.3

7 .5

7.7

6.8

5.9

5.1

5.9

4.7

3.4

5 .6

5.2

2.5

4 .5

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

655.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Septeaber 26, 1991

Im p o rts

in

1982

D o lla r s

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Quarter

In itia l Quarter
3-86

4-86

-0 .6

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

Billions of Dollari
Annual Rates
1-91

0.0

1-87

4-86

541.9
-1 .2

540.2

2-87

4.0

6.1

14.0

3-87

7.8

10.6

17.0

20.1

4-87

8 .2

10.4

14.6

14.9

9.9

558.2
584.4
598.3

1-88

6 .9

8.3

10.9

9.9

5.1

0.5

2-88

5.9

7.0

8 .7

7.4

3.5

0.4

0.3

3-88

6 .3

7 .3

8.8

7.8

4.9

3.2

4 .7

9.2

599.0
599.5
612.8

4-88

7.0

7.9

9.3

8.5

6.3

5.5

7 .2

10.8

12.4

1-89

6.0

6.7

7.8

6.9

4.8

3.9

4.7

6 .2

4.8

-2 .3

2-89

6.6

7.3

8.3

7.6

5.9

5.3

6.3

7 .8

7.4

5.0

3-89

6.6

7.2

8.1

7.5

6.0

5 .5

6.3

7 .5

7.1

5.4

9.6

6.4

4-89

6 .2

6.8

7.5

6.9

5.5

5.0

5.6

6 .6

6.0

4.5

6.9

4.0

1.7

1-90

6.0

6.4

7.1

6.5

5.2

4.7

5.2

6.0

5.4

4.1

5.8

3.5

2.1

2.5

2-90

5.6

6.0

6.6

6.0

4.8

4.3

4.7

5.3

4 .8

3.5

4.7

2.8

1.6

1.6

0.7

3-90

5.7

6.1

6.7

6.1

5.0

4.6

5.0

5 .6

5.1

4.1

5.2

3.8

3.1

3.6

4.1

4-90

4 .6

4.9

5.3

4.7

3.6

3.1

3.4

3 .7

3.1

2.0

2.6

1.0

-0 .1

-0 .5

-1 .5

-2 .6 -1 1 .8

1-91

3 .8

4.0

4.4

3.8

2.7

2.1

2.3

2.5

1.8

0.7

1.1

-0 .5

-1 .6

-2 .2

-3 .4

- 4 .7 -1 0 .4

2-91

4 .5

4.7

5.1

4.6

3.6

3.2

3.4

3 .7

3.2

2.3

2.8

1.6

1.0

0.8

0.5

0.4

-1 .8

3.6

17.7

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

631.0
627.3
12.8

646.5
656.6
659.4
663.5
664.7
7 .6

677.0
656.0
-8 .8

641.0
667.6

Second q u a rte r 1991 d a ta a re f in a l e s t ia a t e s .




P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
S e p te a b e r 2 6 , 1991

17

G overn m en t

P u rch a ses

o f

G oods

and

S e r v ic e s

in

1982

D o lla r s

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Quarter

In itia l Quarter
3-86

4-86

4-36

2.8
0.7

-1 7

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-91

-0 2

2-87

2-87

5 .8

1-87

1-87

776.0
7 7 5 .7 /
-3 .2

769.5

3-87

1.9

0 7

1.1

5.5

4-87

2.7

2 0

2.7

5 .7

6.0

1-88

0.6

-0 4

-0 .4

0.5

-1 .9

-9 .2

2-88

1.0

0 2

0.3

1.2

-0 .2

-3 .2

3.3

3-88

0.4

-0 4

-0 .4

0.2

-1 .1

-3 .4

-0 .3

-3 .8

4-88

2.0

1 5

1.8

2.6

2.1

1.1

4.8

5.5

15.7

1-89

1.4

1 0

1.1

1.7

1.1

0.2

2.7

2.5

5.8

-3 .3

2-89

1.7

1 3

1.4

2.0

1.5

0.8

3.0

2.9

5.2

0.3

4.0

3-89

1.3

0 9

1.0

1.5

1.0

0.4

2.0

1.8

3.2

-0 .6

0.8

-2 .4

4-89

1.5

1 1

1.2

1.7

1.3

0.7

2.2

2.0

3.2

0.3

1.5

0.3

779.8
791.3
772.4
778.7
771.2
799.9
793.2
801.0
796.2
3.0

802.2

1-90

1.6

1 2

1.4

1.8

1.4

0.9

2.3

2.1

3.1

0.8

1.9

1.2

3.0

2.9

2-90

1.9

1 6

1.7

2.1

1.9

1.4

2.7

2.6

3.6

1.7

2.7

2.4

4.0

4.5

6 .2

3-90

1.8

1 6

1.7

2.1

1.8

1.4

2.6

2.5

3.3

1.6

2.5

2.2

3.3

3.4

3.7

1.2

4-90

2.0

1 8

1.9

2.3

2.0

1.7

2.8

2.7

3.4

2.0

2.8

2.6

3 .6

3.8

4.0

3.0

4.7

1-91

1.8

1 6

1.7

2.0

1.8

1.5

2.4

2.3

3.0

1.6

2.3

2.0

2.8

2.7

2.7

1.5

1.7

-1 .3

2-91

1.8

1 6

1.7

2.0

1.8

1.5

2.4

2.3

2*9

1.7

2.2

2.0

2.6

2.6

2.5

1.6

1.7

0.3

1.8

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

807.9
820.2
822.7
852.3
829.6
833.4

Second quarter 1991 data aro final estiaates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Septeaber 26, 1991

C o rp o ra te

P r o fit s

(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terainal
Quarter

In itial Quarter
3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-91
275.2

4-86

-6 .3

1-87

1.5

9 .9

2-87

12.3

23.0

37.6

3-87

15.5

23.8

31.4

25.5

4-87

12.2

17.4

20.0

12.1

0.1

281.8
305.2
323.0
323.1

1-88

11.8

15.8

17.3

11.2

4.7

9.5

2-88

11.0

14.2

15.1

10.0

5.3

8.0

330.5
335.8

6.6

334.4

3-88

9.3

11.8

12.1

7 .6

3 .5

4.7

2.4

-1 .7

4-88

10.4

12.7

13.1

9 .5

6.5

8.2

7.8

8.4

1-89

6.5

8.0

7.8

4.1

0.9

1.0

-1 .0

-3 .4

-4 .2 -23.2

2-89

5.2

6.4

6.0

2.6

-0 .3

-0 .4

-2 .2

-4 .3

-5.1 -15.5

-8 .3 -16.0 -12.2 -17.1

349.6

19.5

327.3
321.4

-7 .0

306.7

3-89

3.1

4.0

3.4

0.2

-2 .6

-2 .9

-4 .9

-7 .0

4-89

1.2

1.9

1.2

-1 .9

-4 .5

-5 .1

-7 .0

-9 .1 -10.5 -16.8 -14.5 -18.1 -19.1

1-90

1.7

2.4

1.7

-1 .0

-3 .3

-3 .7

-5 .2

-6 .8

-7 .6 -12.3

2-90

2.5

3.1

2.6

0.2

-1 .9

-2.1

-3 .3

-4 .4

-4 .8

-8 .4

-9 .3 -10.1
-5 .1

-4 .6

290.9

-6 .4

8.4

0.0

11.1

296.8
13.9
2.6

306.6
-7 .5

300.7

3-90

1.8

2.4

1.9

-0 .5

-2 .4

-2 .6

-3 .7

-4 .8

-5 .2

-8 .2

-5 .5

-5 .2

-2 .0

4.5

4-90

0.8

1.2

0.7

-1 .6

-3 .4

-3 .7

-4 .8

-5 .8

-6 .3

-9 .1

-6 .9

-6 .9

-4 .7

-0 .7

-3 .5 -11.2 -14.8

1-91

0.5

0.9

0.4

-1 .7

-3 .4

-3 .7

-4 .7

-5 .6

-6.0

-8 .5

-6 .5

-6 .4

-4 .5

-1 .3

-3 .6

-8 .8

-9 .4

-3 .7

2-91

0.4

0.7

0.2

-1 .7

-3 .3

-3 .6

-4 .5

-5 .4

-5 .7

-7 .9

-6 .1

-5 .9

-4 .2

-1 .5

-3 .4

-7 .2

-7 .2

-3 .1

-2 .5

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

288.9
286.2
284.4

Corporate profits with capital consuaption and inventory valuation adjustaents.




P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
S e p te a b e r 26, 1991

18

G r o s s S a v i n g as a P e r c e n t of G N P
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

2 0 -

20

18

18

Privat;e
16

16

Total
14

W

\
/\

4

\

\ - /

\

*

14

...
.
V

/

S

>

✓

—

/\
r \

12

12

%

V

10

' .... I"

'

I

-T----- 1
-----T

1985

•

1986

1

'

•

1987

1

*

b

1988

■

i

1

......r

i

1

I

1990

1989

1 “1 - T ------ 1
-

10

1991

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

G r o s s

P r i v a t e

S a v in g

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e rn in a i
Q u a rte r
4 -8 6
1 -8 7

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r
3 -8 6

4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

18 28
-8 -8

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s
A n n u al R a te s
1 -9 1
6 4 1 .2

- 6 .6

8
.1

6 7 8 .0

2 5 .0

6 1 1 .8

2 -8 7

-8 .2

3 -8 7

-1 .0

0 .9

-9 .4

2 3 .9

4 -8 7

7 .7

1 1 .5

7 .4

3 6 .7

5 0 .7

18
-8
28
-8

8 1 .0
.6 2

8 .9

2 8 .5

3 0 .9

1 3 .7

7 .7

1 0 .3

7 .5

2 1 .3

2 0 .5

7 .8

2
.1

3 -8 8

7 .8

1 .0
0

7 .7

1 8 .7

1 7 .4

8
.1

5 .4

8 .7

4 -8 8

7 .4

9 .3

7 .3

1 6 .2

1 4 .7

7 .2

5 .1

6
.6

4 .5

1 -8 9

7 .7

1 5 .3

1 3 .9

7 .7

6
.2

7 .6

7 .1

5 .1

3 .4

3 .8

2 1
.2 .0

- 7 .0

4 .8

3 .4

3 .6

2 .4

-2 .1

3 .0

4 .9

3 .7

3 .9

3 .0

2
.6

0 .3

4 .2

5 .5

4 .8

3 .8

4 .0

3 .2

3 .0

1 .4

4 .3

5 .0

4 .4

4 .9

4 .0

4 .2

3 .6

3 .5

2 .3

4 .7

5 .3

5 .2

2 -8 9
3 -8 9

6
.2
6
.0

4 -8 9

5 .9

1 -9 0

5 .8

2 -9 0

5 .8

- 9 .0 - 3 3 .7

9 .4

7 .6

7 .6

5 .8

7 .2

5 .5

7 .0

6
.8
6
.8

5 .5
5 .4
5 .5

3 -9 0

4 .3

5 .1

3 .8

4 -9 0

4 .2

4 .9

3 .7

1 -9 1

4 .5

5 .2

4 .0

2 -9 1

4 .3

4 .9

3 .8

3 -8 6

4 -8 6

1 -8 7




6 4 5 .5

1 .2 1 .6
2 0
1 .1 9 . 6
1
1 .6 9 . 2
0
1 .0 8 . 7
0
9 .7

8 .4

7 1 5 .2
7 3 8 .5
7 4 2 .4
7 5 8 .0
7 6 6 .4
7 8 4 .4

9 .7

1 .7

7 7 0 .3
7 7 6 .0
7 8 6 .4
7 9 5 .0

6
.0

8 0 6 .7

6 2 1 1 0 . 9 0 .4 - 1 . 0 0 - 0 . 5 - 2 . 4 - 5 . 7 - 1 6 . 0
.2 .8 .8 .8
.2
5 .9
2 1 .9 1 .9 1 0 .7 - 0 . 5 0 0 - 1 . 1 - 2 . 9 - 7 . 0
.8
.2
.6 .2
7 .2
6 3 . 3 2 .4 2 . 5 1 . 9 1 0 1 . 7 1 .5 0 - 0 . 1 - 2 . 1
.1
.8
.6 .6
.0
6 5 . 7 3 .1 2 .3 2 .3 1 1 .5 0 1 1 .4 0 . 7 0 - 1 . 4
.8
.6 .6
.8

7 7 2 .2

7 .4
7 .1

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

18 28
-8 -8

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

2 .9

7 7 7 .8

5 .7

8 .5

4 .0

4 .5

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

7 9 3 .9

0
.6

7 9 5 .1

1 -9 1

P re p a re d b y P o e te ra i R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
Sep tem ber 2 6 , 1991

19

Business Productivity a n d C o m p e n s a t i o n
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

B u s in e s s

S e c t o r

O u t p u t

p e r

H o u r

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r m in a l
Q u a rte r

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r
3 -8 6

4 -8 6

4 -8 6
1 -8 7
2 -8 7

1 .7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

18 28
-8 -8

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

1982 * 100
2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

0 .4

1 .5

2 -8 7

1
.1
0 .7

1 -8 7

1 0 9 .4
1 0 9 .5

4 -8 8

1 2
.8 .1
2 2 .3
.0
2 .5
2
.8
2 2
.0 .1
2 2
.0 .2
1 1 .7
.6

1 -8 9

1 .4

1 .4

1
.6

2 -8 9

1 .3

1 .3

1 .4

3 -8 7
4 -8 7

18
-8
28
-8
3 -8 8

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

2 .9

3 .4

3 .5

3 .8

2 .5
2 .5
1 .9

3 -9 0

0
.8
0
.8
0
.8

4 -9 0

0 .7

0 .7

4 -8 9
1 -9 0
2 -9 0

1 -9 1
2 -9 1

0 .7

1
.2
0 .9

0 0 0
.6 .6 .6
0 0 0
.6 .6 .6
3 -8 6

4 -8 6

11
1 .1

2 .9

1 1
.1 .1
0 .9
0
.8
0 0 .7
.8
0 0
.8 .8
0 0
.8 .8

3 -8 9

1 1 0 .3

3 .0

1 -8 7




1 1 1 .9
1 1 3 .2

6 .7

2 1
.2 .8
2 .4
2
.0
2 .3
1 .7
1 .4
1
.1
1 .4
1 0
.1 .8
1 .3
1 0 .7
.0
1 0 0 .5
.0 .8
0 .7
0 .4
0
.1
0 0 .3 0
.6
.0
0 0 .4 0
.6
.2

-0 .1

0 .7

0 .5

0 .5

0 .3

2 .4

0 .5

0 .3

0 .5

0 .3

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

0 .3

0
.1
0
.1
0
.1
4 -8 7

1 1 2 .9

-1 .1
0 .7
-0 .1

0 .4

1 1 3 .6

2 .5

-0 .2

0
.1
0
.2

1 1 3 .1

- 1 .7
- 1 .1
-0 .6

1 1 3 .0

-0 .4

0
.0

1 1 3 .1

0 .4

-0 .2

-0 .1

-0 .7

- 0 .4

- 0 .4

-0 .5

-0 .4

-1 .0

- 0 .8

-0 .9

-1 .6

-0 .5

- 0 .5

- 0 .9

-0 .8

- 0 .9

- 1 .3

-1 .4

- 0 .7

-0 .3

-0 .2

- 0 .6

- 0 .4

-0 .4

- 0 .6

-0 .5

0 .4

- 0 .2

-0 .1

-0 .4

-0 .2

- 0 .2

-0 .3

-0 .1

-0 .3

- 0 .2

-0 .5

- 0 .4

-0 .4

- 0 .5

-0 .4

- 0 .3

- 0 .2

- 0 .5

-0 .3

- 0 .3

-0 .4

- 0 .3

- 0 .2

- 0 .1

-0 .4

-0 .2

-0 .2

- 0 .3

- 0 .2

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

12
1 .8
12
1 .2
12
1 .0

-1 .1

18 28
-8 -8

-2 .1

0
.6
0
.1
0
.1
0
.1
4 -8 9

1 1 2 .4

1 .4
1 .3

1
.1

1 1 2 .7
1 1 2 .3

0 .4

-0 .2

- 1 .4

0 .3

-0 .1

- 0 .7

0 .0

-0 .4

0 .2

0 .4

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

0 .3
1 -9 0

0
.0
2 -9 0

1 1 2 .3
1 1 2 .4

P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
S e p te a b e r 5 , 1991

20

N e t

F e d e r a l

D e b t

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r m in a l
Q u a rte r

B illio n s o f
D o lla r s

I n i t i a l Q u a r te r

28
-6

3 -8 6

4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

3 -8 6

1 3 .8

9 .7

1 .2
1

9 .8

9 .9

8
.6

7 .5

7 .6

9 .8

8 .7

7 .9

8
.1

7 .1

9 .7

8 8
.8 .2

8 .4

7 .9

9 .3

9 .4

8 .5

9 .2

8 .5

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

5 .2

4 -8 7

4 -8 8

8 1 .2
.6 0

3 -8 7

3 -8 8

7 .1

2 -8 7

2 -8 8

1 2 .3

1 1 .5

1 -8 8

1 5 .3

*4-86
f
1 -8 7

4 -8 7

18
-8
28
-8
3 -8 8

1 ,7 5 1 .2

1 -8 9

8 8
.8 .1
8 8
.6 .0

4 -8 8

1 ,8 0 2 .7
1 ,8 3 3 .8
1 ,8 7 8 .7
1 ,9 0 2 .6
1 ,9 4 4 .4

9 .1

1 ,9 8 8 .7

9 .4

8
.1
8 8
.0 .1

7 .6

8 .4

7 .7

8 .4

7 .6

7 .7

7 .3

7 .7

8 6
.1 .8
8 7 .5 8 . 3
.1
6 6
.6 .6
7 .3

7 .5

7 .6

7 .2

7 .6

7 .3

6 .7

6 .7

6
.0

7 .9

2 ,0 2 1 .5
2 ,0 6 2 . 0
2 ,0 8 6 .9

4 .9

2 2 2 .8
,1

7 .1

2 -8 9

8 .4

7 .8

7 .3

7 .3

7 .0

7 .3

7 .0

6 .5

6 .4

5 .8

3 -8 9

8 .3

7 .8

7 .4

7 .4

7 .1

7 .3

7 .1

6 .7

6 .7

6 .3

6 5 .4
.2
68 6
*
.6

7 .8

4 -8 9

8 .3

7 .8

7 .4

7 .5

7 .2

7 .4

7 .2

6 .9

7 .0

6 .7

7 -2

7 .2

8 .1

8 .4

1 -9 0

8
.8

7 .9

8 8
.1 .0

8 .7

9 .1

1 0 .3

1 .6
1

1 4 .9

2 -9 0

8 .9

8 .3

8 .5

8 .5

9 .1

9 .5

1 0 .6

1 1 .5

1 3 .1

3 -9 0

9 .1

8 .7

8 .9

9 .0

9 .6

1 .0
0

1 1 .0

4 -9 0

9 .3

9 .1

9 .3

9 .4

1 .0
0

1 0 .5

1 1 .3

1 -9 1

9 .3

8 8 7 .9 8 8
.0 .1
.2 .1
8 .5
8 8 .3 8 8 .5 8 .4
.2
.2
8 8 .5 8 8 .5 8 8
.8
.6
.8 .8
9 .0
8 8 . 9 8 9 .1 9 .1
.8
.8
9 .0
8 8 . 9 8 . 9 9 .1 9 .1
.8

9 .1

9 .3

9 .4

9 .9

1 0 .3

1 1 .0

2
1 .8 1 2 .9 1 1 .9 1 .6
1
2
1 .0 1 3 .0 1 2 .3 1 .8
2
1 .6 1 .2 1 .6 1 .6
1 2 1 1

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

28
-6

8 .3

3 -8 6

4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

1 8 28
-8 -8

2 ,1 5 0 .7
2 ,1 9 1 .7
2 ,2 3 6 .3

4 -8 9

2 ,3 1 5 .4
2 ,3 7 8 .3

1 1 .3

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

2 ,4 4 9 .8
2 ,5 2 6 . 4

1 3 .1
1 1 .2
3 -9 0

2 ,5 8 2 .9

9 .3
4 -9 0

P re p a re d by F e d e ra l R e se rv e Bank o f S t .
J u l y 3 0 , 1991

L o u is

FEDERAL GOVERNM ENT D EB T
(billions of dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals
Gross
federal debt

Federal debt held
by agencies
and trusts

Net
federal debt

Federal debt held
by Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal debt held
by private
investors

Federal debt held
by foreign
investors

1987 March
June
September
December

2248.9
2311.6
2362.1
2417.2

414.5
432.9
459.0
473.4

1833.8
1878.7
1902.6
1944.4

199.4
211.7
214.5
217.4

1628.4
1668.1
1690.8
1726.2

271.7
278.0
282.3
301.5

1988 March
June
September
December

2487.6
2550.3
2615.3
2671.0

499.3
527.9
552.1
585.1

1998.7
2021.5
2062.0
2086.9

221.3
226.2
232.5
232.4

1763.7
1797.5
1832.2
1854.8

330.5
342.0
350.5
363.3

1989 March
June
September
December

2740.9
2802.7
2871.8
2938.3

618.0
650.0
678.1
703.6

2122.8
2150.7
2191.7
2236.3

232.8
230.2
224.2
222.4

1886.4
1920.6
1970.1
2011.8

373.6
366.2
400.9
392.9

1990 March
June
September
December

3049.0
3146.9
3249.5
3351.4

735.2
765.1
797.4
823.4

2315.4
2378.3
2449.8
2526.4

223.8
229.6
236.3
252.7

2094.2
2154.7
2220.6
2283.7

382.8
390.5
411.4
424.3

1991 March

3461.7

881.8

2582.9

252.3

2337.2

428.3

Colu m n s m ay not ad d b e c a u se e ach co m p on en t is se a so n a lly adju sted separately. G ro s s federal debt e q u a ls d e b t h eld by a g e n c ie s a n d tru sts p lu s net fed era l debt.
Met fed eral debt e q u a ls debt held by F ed e ra l R e se rve b a n k s p lu s debt held by private investors (which in c lu d e s deb t h eld by fo reig n investors). S o u rc e s: O rig in a l
d ata m ay be fou nd in the T re a s u ry B u lle tin and also in the F e d e ra l R e se rv e B u lle tin ', se a so n a lly adjusted s e rie s p re p a re d by th is B a n k.




21

FEDERAL GO VERN M EN T B U D G ETS
(billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates)
Receipts
National
income accounts
budget

Quarters

1984 1

Expenditures
Cyclically
National
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

Cyclically
adjusted
budget

Surplus or deficit(-)
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

859.8
880.4
895.6
925.3

$ -1 5 4 .6
-1 6 3 .4
-1 7 2 .8
-1 8 7 .5

-115.1
-1 3 2 .5
-1 4 1 .2
-1 5 4 .3

958.2
969.9
996.7
1017.5

953.0
964.4
991.3
1012.6

-1 6 1 .6
-211.1
-2 0 2 .7
-2 1 2 .2

-1 3 3 .7
-1 8 3 .7
-1 7 9 .5
-1 9 0 .6

816.4
832.2
852.1
875.5

1006.6
1051.9
1037.7
1042.8

1001.4
1045.2
1032.4
1038.7

-1 9 5 .6
-2 3 6 .0
-2 0 6 .8
-1 8 9 .0

-1 8 5 .0
-2 1 3 .0
-1 8 0 .3
-1 6 3 .2

862.0
929.8
923.4
940.0

875.1
938.1
927.2
930.0

1060.0
1061.1
1064.9
1101.7

1057.4
1060.4
1065.6
1103.0

-1 9 8 .0
-1 3 1 .3
-1 4 1 .6
-1 6 1 .7

-1 8 2 .3
-1 2 2 .3
-1 3 8 .4
-1 7 3 .0

1988 1
2
3
4

943.0
972.5
976.7
997.5

924.9
949.5
953.0
971.4

1096.7
1109.4
1096.8
1153.8

1098.0
1111.4
1098.2
1156.1

-1 5 3 .7
-1 3 6 .9
-120.1
-1 5 6 .3

-173.1
-1 6 1 .9
-1 4 5 .2
-1 8 4 .7

1989 1
2
3
4

1045.4
1062.2
1048.1
1055.7

1014.3
1032.2
1020.2
1035.4

1178.0
1184.9
1179.8
1205.8

1181.0
1187.3
1182.0
1208.2

-1 3 2 .6
-1 2 2 .7
-1 3 1 .7
-150.1

-1 6 6 .7
-155.1
-1 6 1 .8
-1 7 2 .8

1990 1
2
3
4

1080.6
1105.8
1125.9
1126.5

1061.7
1093.4
1116.0
1132.1

1248.8
1271.7
1271.6
1310.8

1252.2
1275.4
1273.6
1311.2

-1 6 8 .3
-1 6 6 .0
-1 4 5 .7
-1 8 4 .3

-1 9 0 .5
-1 8 2 .0
-1 5 7 .6
-179.1

1991 1
2

1134.5
1138.5

1160.1
1173.7

1261.4
1323.1

1257.9
1319.3

-1 2 6 .9
-1 8 4 .6

- 97.8
-1 4 5 .6

3
4

$ 711.1
721.9
728.3
742.7

$ 744.7
747.9
754.4
771.0

$ 865.6
885.3
901.1
930.2

1985 1
2
3
4

796.5
758.7
794.1
805.3

819.3
780.7
811.8
822.0

1986 1
2
3
4

810.9
815.9
830.9
853.8

1987 1
2
3
4

2

$

F is c a l y e a r s
A c tu a l
1984

1983

1985

1986

E s t im a t e s

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

$ 1 1 4 5 .5

Total b ud get

$

Receipts

6 0 0 .6

$

S u rplus o r deficit (

-)

$

$ 909.0 $ 990.7

$ 1 0 3 1 .3

$ 1 0 6 8 .7

9 4 6 .3

9 9 0 .3

1 0 0 3 .8

1 0 6 4 .1

1 1 4 4 .1

1 2 5 1 .8

1 3 5 0 .9

1 4 9 3 .8

$ -2 0 7 .8 $-1 8 5 .3

$ -2 1 2 .3

$ -2 2 1 .2

$ -1 4 9 .7

$ -1 5 5 .1

$ -1 5 3 .4

$ -2 2 0 .5

$ -2 8 2 .2

$ -3 4 8 .3

$

8 0 8 .3

6 6 6 .5

7 3 4 .1

8 5 1 .8

Outlays

$

7 6 9 .1

$

8 5 4 .1

C a le n d a r y e a r s
N a tio n al in c o m e a cc o u n ts
budget

$

R eceipts
Expenditures
Surplus o r

6 5 9 .9
8 3 5 .9

deficit( - .)

$

7 2 6 .0
8 9 5 .6

$ -1 7 6 .0 $-1 6 9 .6
•

$

7 8 8 .7

9 7 2 .4

$ 1 0 5 2 .9

$ 1 1 0 9 .7

1 0 7 1 .9

1 1 1 4 .2

1 1 8 7 .2

1 2 7 5 .7

$ -2 0 6 .9

$ -1 5 8 .2

$ _ 1 4 1 .7

$ -1 3 4 .3

$ -1 6 6 .0

$

$

$

$

9 8 5 .6
$ -1 9 6 .9

8 2 7 .9

$

1 0 3 4 .8

9 1 3 .8

C y c lic a lly a d ju ste d b ud get
Receipts

7 2 5 .8

7 5 4 .5

8 0 8 .5

9 4 9 .7

$ 1 0 2 5 .5

$ 1 1 0 0 .8

Expenditures

8 2 3 .5

8 9 0 .3

9 8 0 .3

1 0 2 9 .4

1 0 7 1 .6

1 1 1 5 .9

1 1 8 9 .6

1 2 7 8 .1

-9 7 .7

$ -1 3 5 .8

$ -1 7 1 .9

$ -1 8 5 .4

$ -1 5 4 .0

$ -1 6 6 .2

Surplus o r d e f ic it ( - )

$

8 4 4 .1

9 1 7 .6

$ -1 6 4 .1

$ -1 7 7 .3

F is c a l y e a r s r e f e r to t h e b u d g e t y e a r w h ic h r u n s fro m O c t o b e r 1 t h r o u g h S e p t e m b e r 3 0 .
T o t a l b u d g e t o u t la y s in c lu d e f e d e r a l e n t it ie s t h a t a r e o ff-b u d g e t.
E s t im a t e s fr o m O f f ic e o f M a n a g e m e n t a n d B u d g e t ’ s M id - S e s s io n R e v ie w o f t h e F Y 1 99 1 B u d g e t ( J u ly 1 5 , 1 9 9 1 ).
C y c l ic a l ly a d j u s t e d b u d g e t d a t a a r e b a s e d o n a 6 p e r c e n t r a te o f u n e m p lo y m e n t .
S o u rc e :

O f f ic e o f M a n a g e m e n t a n d B u d g e t a n d U . S . D e p a r t m e n t o f C o m m e r c e .




P r e p a r e d b y F e d e r a l R e s e r v e B a n k o f S t. L o u is

22

G o v e r n m e n t Deficit(-)/Surplus(+)
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars
-6 0

Billions of Dollars
-6 0 Tot< il

l\

- 1 1 0

-1 1 0

✓

\
'

-1 6 0

' " V ..........
\

k

\
\

A
>

/

V
» f I

*

\

i
\

-1 6 0

\
\
1

v'
\ / s N / '\1

-2 1 0

1
1
1

' ' \
Federal

t

- 2 1 0

/

\

w
»

-2 6 0

'

1

■ 1

'

•

1986

1985

1

1

•

1

I'

1

1
—

1

1

1

1

1990

1989

1988

1987

1

1

r

T -2 6 0

1991

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

F e d e r a l

D e f e n s e

E x p e n d it u r e s

( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a le s o f C h a n g e )
T e rn i r ia l
Q u a rte r

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r
3 -8 6

4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

4 -8 6

0 .9
3 .5

9 .6

5 .0

9 .6

9 .2

2
.6

5 .5

3 .8

1 .4

2 .3

4 .5

3 .1

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s
A n n u al R a te s
1 -9 1

9 .6

4 -8 7

3 -8 8

8
.8

3 -8 7

18 28
-8 -8

1 0 .5

2 -8 7

4 -8 7

-7 .9

1 -8 7

3 -8 7

18
-8
28
-8

2 8 0 .7
2 8 7 .8
2 9 3 .9

1
.2
2 1
.6 .1
1 0 .4
.8

3 0 0 .7
2 9 6 .0

-6 .1
-2 .7

0
.8

2 9 6 .6

3 -9 0

2 3 .9
.1
- 1 .6
0 .7
1 3 .0
.6
- 1 .7
-0 .2
2 3 . 3 2 .3 1 .3 - 0 . 3 1
.0
.2
1 2 .7 1 0 - 0 .6 0
.6
.6
.8 .8
1 2 2 1 0 1
.8 .8 .0 .1 .0 .0
2 .3
3 .2
2
.0
1 .9
0 .9
2 .5
1 .3
2 1 .4 0 .7 - 0 . 2 0 .5
.2
2 2 2 1 0 .9 1 .7
.0 .8 .2 .6
2 2 2 .3 1 .7 1 1
.1 .8
.1 .8
2 2 . 9 2 .4 1 .9 1 .3 2
.2
.0

4 -9 0

3 .0

3 .7

3 .3

2 .9

2 .4

3 .2

3 .4

3 .7

4 .3

4 .2

5 .0

5 .3

2 6
.1 .0
4 .9
8
.6

1 -9 1

3 .3

4 .0

3 .6

3 .2

2
.8

3 .5

3 .7

4 .0

4 .7

4 .6

5 .4

5 .7

5 .3

2 -9 1

2
.8

3 .5

3 .1

2 .7

2 .3

2 .9

3 .1

3 .3

3 .8

3 .6

4 .2

4 .3

3 .8

4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

2 -8 9

3 -8 9

3 -8 8
4 -8 8
1 -8 9
2 -8 9
3 -8 9
4 -8 9
1 -9 0
2 -9 0

3 -8 6




2 9 7 .1

0 .7
- 0 .7

2 9 5 .5

-2 .1

1 .4

1 .7
0 .5

1
.8

2 9 9 .6

5 .7

0 .5

1 1
.1 .2
2 2 .5
.2

0 .7

3 .3

3 .7

3 .0

5 .5

7 .8

0 .4

-0 .9

3 .0

2 .9

0 1 .1
.6 1

3 .0

3 .0

1 .4

3 .2

3 .2

0 .5

1 8 28
-8 -8

3 0 0 .6

2 .3

1 -0 .1
.0
1 1 .9 2 2
.8
.6 .0
1 .9
2 2 .7 2
.1
.2
2 2 .3 2 .9 2 .5
.1

0 .5

2 9 8 .2

-1 .9

3 0 6 .3
2 9 9 .2

-9 .0

7 .1

3 0 7 .2
3 .2

3 0 9 .6

3 .5

3 .9

7 .8

1 .2
0

1 6 .8

8 .5

7 .8

9 .4

1 2 .3

6
.1

5 .1

5 .7

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

4 -8 9

3 1 2 .6

6
.2
3 -9 0

3 2 5 .0
7 .9

3 3 1 .2

1 .3

-4 .9

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

3 2 7 .1

P re p a re d b y F e d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
Sep tem ber 2 6 , 1991

23

F e d e r a l

N o n d e f e n s e

E x p e n d it u r e s

(C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l R a te s o f C h a n g e )
T e r m in a l
Q u a rte r

I n i t i a l Q u a rte r
3 -8 6

4 -8 6

1 -8 7

2 -8 7

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

4 -8 6

5 .7

2
.8

1 .3

1 .7

0 .4

- 2 .1

5 .8

5 .7

5 .8

1 0 .3

4 .0

3 .6

5 .8

9 .6

4 .6

4 .3

4 .1

5 .9

8 .5

3 -8 8

3 .3

2 .9

2 .5

3 .5

4 .9

4 -8 8

5 .9

5 .9

5 .9

7 .4

9 .3

6
.0

9 .8

7 .3

8 .7

6 .4

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

B i l l i o n s o f D o lla r s
A n n u al R a te s
1 -9 1

2 3 .6

4 .3

2 -8 9

- 1 .6

4 -8 7

1 -8 9

- 2 .6

3 -8 7

4 -8 8

5 .4

2 -8 7

3 -8 8

5 .9

1 -8 7

18 28
-8 -8

18
-8
28
-8

7 6 2 .1
7 7 2 .2
7 6 7 .2

2 -8 9

.1
6 6 .7 8
.6
6 6 6 7 .4
.1 .1 .2

3 -8 9

5 .2

1 -8 9

6 .5

5 .1

7 6 4 .2
8 0 5 .7
8 0 0 .1

- 2 .8

1 6
.6 .2
-0 .7

0 .3

8 1 2 .3
8 0 1 .3

- 5 .3

1 .6 2 9 .1
0
1 .0 1 .2 2 .6
0 1 0
8 .3

8 .9

1 4 .0

5 .9

6 .9

4 .7

6 6
.0 .0

6 .9

7 .9

6
.1

7 .4

7 .7

8 .7

7 .2

8 .5

7 .8

8 .7

7 .4

8 .5

8 1 1 .4
.8
8 1 .0
.8 1

6 .4

7 .1

7 .9

6 .5

7 .5

7 .7

5 .1

8 5 4 .2

9 .1

9 .0

8 7 9 .8

1 2 .5

2
.1

7 .2
3 .0

8 8 4 .3

-1 .4

-4 .8

4 .1

5 .1

1 6 .0

7 .0

8 .7

1 6 .2

1 6 .4

8 .3

7 .4

8
.8

1 3 .7

1 .6
2

9 .0

9 .4

6
.8

5 .9

6 .7

9 .8

7 .8

3 .7

-1 .3

6 .7

7 .5

1 .2
0

8 .7

6 .3

5 .0

2 -9 0
3 -9 0

6 .3

4 -9 0

6 6
.6 .6

6 .7

7 .4

8
.1

7 .0

7 .9

8
.1

9 .6

7 .4

1 -9 1

4 .9

4 .8

5 .3

5 .8

4 .5

5 .2

5 .1

6
.1

3 .9

2
.8

2 .9

4 .3

2
.1

-1 .2

-4 .4

2 -9 1

6 6 6 6
.1 .1 .2 .8

7 .3

6 .3

7 .0

7 .1

8 .3

6 .4

5 .7

6
.2

7 .8

6 .5

4 .7

3 .6

5 .3

2 .3

3 1 .9

3 -8 7

4 -8 7

3 -8 8

4 -8 8

1 -8 9

3 -8 9

4 -8 9

1 -9 0

2 -9 0

3 -9 0

4 -9 0

1 -9 1

1 -9 0

3 -8 6

6 .3

4 .8

4 -8 6

1 -8 7




2 -8 7

7 .6

18 2 8
-8 -8

1 0 .4

6
.1
8
.1

8 7 3 .5

6 6 6
.0 .0 .0
6
.8
6 .7
6 .7
6 6 . 9 7 .0
.8

4 -8 9

2 -8 9

9 0 6 .6
9 4 1 .6
9 6 2 .1
9 5 9 .0
9 8 5 .8

1 1 .7
- 5 .9 -2 0 .7

9 3 0 .2
9 9 6 .9

P ro p a re d by F ö d e ra l R e s e rv e Bank o f S t . L o u is
S e p te a b e r 2 6 , 1991

24


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102