Full text of National Economic Trends : October 1990
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N a t io n a l E c o n o m ic T r e n d s O cto b e r 1990 T h e c u r r e n t is g r o w in g in s u r v e y in A u g u s t 1 9 8 3 . fe ll to A u g u s t T h e s e I C o f E c o n o m c o n t r ib u t e r e a l 1 9 7 7 (1 9 8 5 In d e x P C E (w h e n fo llo w in g ic = o v e r = h o w fo r s ig n ific a n tly th e d a ta r e d u c tio n s in 1 7 .9 to d o w n to b e b o th th e s e th e s e a d d e d fr o m lo n g e s t p o in ts (r e a l O n e T h e its ( I C E ) , it s J u ly T h e s h a rp , a b o u t ta b le C C I N o v e m b e r 1978 1979 M a rc h 1980 D e c e m b e r 1980 S e p te m b e r 1981 M a rc h 1982 N o v e m b e r 1987 fo r U n iv e r s ity th e la s t r e c o r d 6 5 b e lo w A s th e o f p e r c e n t s h o w s d a ta t im e fo r th e 11 G N th e r e a l w a s C C s lo w e r P C to I E th e a n d d ro p ( C C I) s in c e A p r il o f M ic h ig a n , t h is lo w w a s in s e r ie s . in d ic a t o r s P , h a p p e n e d in E th e s e s h a rp In d e x C C I C o m m e r c e le a d in g w h a t in d ic a t e , I C o f U . S . o f r e a l d e c lin e s th e e a c h th e T h e r e in M a r c h r e a l 1 9 8 9 . P C E g r o w th s h o rt- ru n g r o w th th e g r o w th D e p a r tm e n t’s I C E o fte n s in c e h a s Ju ly s lo w e d m e a s u re s . P o in t Ju ly le v e l s im u lt a n e o u s a v a ila b le ). re c e n t o f th e in d e x u p th e C o n fid e n c e lo w e s t c o m p o s it e m a k e b e e n C o n s u m e r h is to r y . C e n te r it s E h a s n a tio n ’s th e s p e n d in g ; I C t h is R e s e a r c h o n is in c o n c e r n B o a r d ’s t h is le v e l; G r o w t h D a te t h is c o n s u m e r E ) b e c a m e le v e l; S u r v e y e x p a n s io n o f P C o f fo r r e d u c tio n s th e s lo w d o w n . to re a s o n th e fr o m m o n t h ly p e a c e tim e C o n fe r e n c e J u ly fr o m in d ic a t o r s e p is o d e s s e r ie s th e c o n t in u e . p o in ts 1 4 .4 e c o n o m ic p r e v io u s is e x p e c t a tio n s . le a d in g e x a m p le , a n w ill s e c o n d - la r g e s t e x p e n d itu r e s s e v e n o n it a n d o ld , E x p e c ta tio n s th e c o n s id e r e d A n a ly s is , y e a r s lo n g d o w n 1 0 0 ), a re c o n s u m p tio n m o n t h ly e ig h t c o n fid e n c e 1 0 0 ), (1 9 6 6 a re f o llo w in g la r g e n e a r ly o f C o n s u m e r d e c lin e s E r e a l p e r s o n a l w o u ld h o w e v e r , th e a n d n o w o f c o n s u m e r 8 3 .8 in 1 9 8 2 . C C I B u r e a u o f w a s ila r ly , 6 2 .9 T h e S in c e c o n c e r n , m e a s u re s S im A u g u s t e x p a n s io n , d e c lin e in I C a n d E - 3 in r e a l P C E s u b s e q u e n t (+ ) + 3 d u r in g p r e v io u s n u m b e r o f ( - ) m o n th s -6 +6 12.1 8 .9 1 1 .3 7 .2 - 1 .5 2 .9 - 0 .7 3 .5 10.6 - 1 .7 - 3 .6 0 .5 - 1 .0 0 .9 4 .9 0 .9 2 0 .3 * 8.6 8.1 5 .7 % 2.6 1 6 .5 3 .4 % 6 4 .4 - 1 .0 5 .6 5 .6 4 .8 - 0 .5 1 4 .3 7 .7 - 0 .5 7 .5 .8 * 1 2 .9 % .1 % 2.0 0.2 1.6 0 .5 2.6 5 .2 * In the following month — T H F E D C o u r te n a y E E R A L R E S E R V E R A N K o f S T . I X H Ï S V ie w s e x p re s s e d d o n o t n e ce ssarily re fle c t o ffic ia l p o sitio n s o f t h e Federal R eserve S ystem . C . S to n e T O T A L CIVILIAN E M P L O Y M E N T ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) THOU S A N D S OF PERSONS IN IT IA L MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 1-89 2-89 1.2 3-89 2.1 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-8 9 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4 -90 5-90 6-90 7-90 116.757 117.047 3.0 117.084 4-89 1.5 1.7 0.4 5-89 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.5 6-89 1.9 2.0 1.7 2.4 4.3 7-89 1.4 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.6 117.132 117.542 117.436 -1.1 117.550 8-89 1.3 1.4 1.0 1.2 1.4 0.0 1.2 9-89 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.7 -0.4 -0.1 -1.3 117.419 10-89 l.l 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.1 0.5 0.2 1.7 11-89 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.1 1.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 2.1 117.585 117.836 2.6 117*888 12-89 1.2 1.2 1.0 1.0 1.1 0.6 0.9 0.9 1.6 1.6 0.5 1-90 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.1 0.9 0.1 -0.3 2-90 1.1 1,1 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.9 0.8 1.3 1.2 0.7 0.8 1.8 3-90 1.2 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 0.9 1.1 1.1 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.5 2.4 3.1 117.863 118.035 118.334 4-90 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 0.6 0.8 0.7 1.0 0.9 0.6 0.6 0.9 0.4 -2.2 5-90 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.0 1.0 0.8 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.9 0.9 1.2 1.1 0.1 2.4 118.116 6-90 1.1 1.0 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 0.8 0.9 1.1 0.9 0.2 1.4 7-90 0.7 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.2 -0.2 -1.0 -0.6 -2.0 -4.3 8-90 0.6 0.5 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.1 -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.6 -1.4 -1.2 -2.3 -3.6 -3.0 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 118.350 0.4 118.389 117.953 117.658 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 7. 1990 PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT* ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH THOUSANDS OF PERSONS IN IT IA L MONTH 1-89 2-89 2.5 3-89 2.1 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 107.648 1.8 107.811 4-89 2.1 1.9 2.0 5-89 2.0 1.8 1.8 1.6 6-89 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.6 7-89 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 107.988 108.135 108.364 1.4 108.490 8-89 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 9-89 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.9 2.1 108.628 2.7 108.868 10-89 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.2 11-89 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.3 2.1 3.0 108.980 109.245 12-89 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.0 2.1 1.9 2.2 1.5 1-90 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.3 2-90 2.2 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.6 3.2 3.4 3-90 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.5 2.4 2.7 2.6 1.8 4-90 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.2 1.9 1.2 0.6 5-90 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.7 2.4 2.7 4.9 6-90 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.6 3.6 7-90 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.0 2.1 2.0 2.1 2.1 2.1 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.7 2.1 0.7 -1.0 8-90 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.8 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.9 1.7 1.8 1.6 1.3 1.2 1.3 0.2 -0.9 -0.8 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 » R EVISED F R O M 1985 P- PRELIMINARY 109*383 3.0 109.654 109.958 110.122 110.177 110.617 2.3 110.829 110.740P 110.665P I NITIAL M O N T H P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. LOU I S SE P T E M B E R 7. 1990 2 EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE MILLIONS OF RATIO PERSONS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED MILLIONS OF SCALE PERSONS SOURCEt U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BEGINNING JANUARY I OS«. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE NEW PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0.3X. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt AUGUST PRELIMINARY "REVISED FROM 1965 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS UNEMPLOYMENT 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 RATE 1987 1988 1989 1990 SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORC~ LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt AUGUST P R EP A R ED 3 BY F E D E R A L RESERVE BANK OF S T. L O U IS C O N S U M E R PRICE I N D E X F O R A LL U R B A N C O N S U M E R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH INITIAL MONTH 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 1982-84*100 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5 -90 6-90 7-90 121.9 2-89 5.1 5-89 5.6 6.1 4-89 6.4 7.1 122.5 8.1 125.5 5-89 6.0 6.4 6.5 5.0 6-89 5.4 5.5 5.5 4.0 125.8 2.9 124.1 124.5 7-89 5.2 5.2 5.0 4.0 5.4 5.9 8 -89 4.4 4.5 4.0 2.9 2.5 1.9 9-89 4.2 4.1 5.8 2.9 2.4 2.5 1.5 2.9 10-89 4.4 4.5 4.1 5.4 5.1 5.2 2.9 4.4 5.9 11-89 4.4 4.5 4.1 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.2 4.2 4.9 5.9 12-89 4.4 4.5 4.2 5.7 5.5 5.6 5.5 4.4 4.9 4.4 124.5 0.0 124.8 125.4 125.8 126.5 4.9 1-90 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.8 4.8 5.0 5.2 6.5 7.1 7.5 9.4 14.1 2-90 5.2 5.5 5.2 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.5 6.2 6.9 7.1 8 .2 9.9 5.8 127.7 5-90 5.5 5.5 5.2 5.0 5.0 5.2 5.5 6.1 6.7 6.8 7.6 8.5 5.8 5.8 128.5 128.9 4-90 5.0 5.0 5.0 4.7 4.7 4.9 5.0 5.6 6.0 6.0 6.4 6.8 4.5 5.8 1.9 5-90 4.8 4.8 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.6 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.2 1.9 1.9 129.1 129.5 6-90 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.5 5.6 5.6 5.8 5.9 4.4 4.0 5.5 4.5 6.7 7-90 4.9 4.9 4.9 4.6 4.6 4.8 4.8 5.5 5.5 5.5 5.7 5.8 4.4 4.2 5.8 4.4 5.7 4.7 8-90 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 4.9 5.1 5.2 5.6 5.9 5.9 6.1 6.2 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.7 7.0 7.1 9.6 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 150.0 150.5 151.5 IN ITIAL M O N T H PR E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S SEPT E M B E R 18» 1990 P R O D U C E R PRICE INDEX, FINISHED G O O D S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH INITIAL MON T H 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 1982 « 100 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5 -90 6-90 7-90 111.9 2-89 7.8 5-89 6.7 5.5 4-89 7.0 6.6 7.7 112.4 115.1 5-89 7.5 7.5 8.5 8.8 6-89 6.2 5.7 5.8 4.9 1.1 115.9 7-89 4.4 5.7 5.2 1.8 -1.6 -4.1 8-89 5.5 2.5 1.9 0.5 -2.1 -5.6 -5.1 9-89 5.9 5.4 5.0 2.1 0.5 0.4 2.7 8 .8 10-89 4.2 5.8 5.5 2.8 1.7 1.9 5.9 7.6 6.5 11-89 5.9 5.5 5.2 2.6 1.6 1.7 5.2 5.4 5.7 1.1 12-89 4.2 5.9 5.7 5.2 2.4 2.6 4.1 5.9 5.0 4.5 7.6 1-90 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.0 5.6 7.5 9.6 9.8 10.9 16.1 25.4 2-90 5.4 5.2 5.2 4.9 4.5 4.9 6.5 7.9 7.7 8.1 10.5 12.0 0.0 114.0 115.6 115.5 114.1 114.7 114.8 115.5 117.7 117.7 5-90 4.8 4.6 4.5 4.5 5.8 4.1 5.2 6.4 6.0 6.0 7.2 7.1 -1.0 -2.0 4-90 4.4 4.1 4.0 5.7 5.5 5.5 4.4 5.5 4.9 4.6 5.5 4.7 - 1.4 -2.0 - 2.0 5-90 *•2 5.9 5.8 5.5 5.1 5.5 4.0 4.9 4.4 4.1 4.6 4.0 -0.8 -1.0 -0.5 6-90 4.0 5.8 5.7 5.4 5.0 5.2 5.8 4.6 4.1 5.8 4.2 5.7 - 0.2 -0.5 0.5 1.5 2.1 7-90 5.7 5.5 5.4 5.1 2.7 2.8 5.4 4.1 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.0 -0.5 -0.4 0.0 0.7 0.5 -1.0 8-90 4.4 4.2 4.1 5.9 5.6 5.7 4.4 5.0 4.7 4.5 4.9 4.6 1.9 2.2 5.1 4.4 5.6 7.4 16.4 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 117.5 117.5 1.0 117.4 117.6 117.5 119.0 INITIAL MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 14» 1990 4 RATI O SCALE 1982-100 P R I C E S RATI O SCALE 1982-100 145 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 135 125 115 150 140 130 120 I 10 100 90 80 CONSUMER PR IC ES DATA ARE ON A 1982-84-100 BASE CPI-U DATA BE6INMIN6 1983 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EQUIVALENCE MEASURE FOR HOMEOVNERSHIP COSTS. PERCENTAOES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANOE FOR PERIOOS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED* AUGUST PREPARED 8Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS RATIO SCALE 1982-100 P R O D U C E R P R I C E S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RATIO SCALE 1982-100 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIOOS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« AUGUST P R E PA R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS P R O D U C E R PRICE INDEX, FINISHED C O N S U M E R F O O D S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH 1-89 2-89 9.6 5-89 8.5 2-89 5-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 0.5 - 5.9 2.4 0.0 6-90 7-90 0.0 -2.5 118.6 -0.5 - 6.9 117.9 118.1 7-89 1.9 0.4 -1.5 0.5 -2.5 2.1 2.2 1.0 -0.2 1.5 -0.5 5.1 4.1 -4.0 • 118.5 118.1 »-89 1.4 0.5 -0.8 0.2 -1.5 0.7 0.0 10-89 5.1 2.5 1.6 2.9 2.2 4.7 5.5 6.2 17.5 7.6 14.0 119.7 10.5 120.7 11-89 5.8 5.2 2.7 4.0 5.6 5.8 6.8 12-89 4.5 5.8 5.4 4.6 4.4 6.4 7.5 8.1 12.4 9.9 9.5 9.6 11.0 12.4 16.9 16.7 19.9 51.4 11.8 15.5 14.7 16.1 19.7 9.0 9.1 11.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 1.5 1 o 5-90 6.5 8-89 6.0 5.9 7.5 7.4 2-90 6.5 6.5 6.2 7.5 7.6 9.6 10.7 5-90 5.6 5.5 5.1 6.2 6.2 7.8 8.5 4.5 4-90 118.6 5.5 4-90 5-90 118.0 4.2 6.5 2-90 7.4 5-89 1.9 4-89 6-89 117.9 4-89 6-89 1982 * 100 I N ITIAL M O N T H 5-89 4.1 5.9 4.7 4.6 5.8 6.5 6.5 8.1 6.6 5.9 121.6 5.0 124.4 125.5 -5.6 124.7 -2.5 -7.9 -10.1 7.0 125.6 1.0 - 4.7 5-90 4.6 4.5 4.1 4.9 4.8 5.9 6.5 6.6 8.0 6.7 6.1 5.4 -0.2 -5.2 -1.9 6-90 4.1 5.7 5.5 4.2 4.0 5.0 5.5 5.4 6.5 5.2 4.4 5.7 -1.2 -5. 5 -2.9 7-90 5.8 5.5 5.5 5.9 5.7 4.6 4.8 4.9 5.8 4.6 5.9 5.1 -1.0 -2.8 -2.1 0.6 -2.4 0.0 6.2 5.1 4.6 4 .0 0.6 -0.8 0.2 2 .9 1.6 4.9 10.1 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 4.2 5.9 5.7 4.3 4.2 5.0 5.2 5.5 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 124.5 125.8 125.8 124.8 INITIAL M O N T H P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B ANK O F ST. LO U I S SEPT E M B E R 14. 1990 P R O D U C E R PRICE INDEX, FINISHED G O O D S , E X C L U D I N G F O O D S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) T ERMINAL MONTH INITIAL M O N T H 1-89 2-89 5-89 2-89 9.2 3-89 6.8 4.5 4-89 8.5 7.9 11.4 5-89 9.1 9.0 11.4 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8- 8 9 1982 * 100 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5-9 0 6-90 7-90 110.0 110.4 111.4 11.5 112.4 6-89 7.9 7.5 8.6 7.2 5.5 7-89 5.4 4.6 4.7 2.5 -1.6 -6.2 112.7 112.1 8-89 5.6 2.7 2.4 0.5 -5.2 -6.2 -6.2 9-89 5.0 4.4 4.4 5.0 1.1 0.4 5.8 14.9 10-89 4.8 4.5 4.2 5.1 1.5 1.1 5.6 8.9 111.5 112.8 5.2 115.1 11-89 4.1 5.5 5.4 2.5 0.9 0.4 2.2 5.1 0.5 -2.1 12-89 4.5 5.8 5.8 2.8 1.7 1.4 5.0 5.5 2.5 2.1 6.6 1-90 5.9 5.6 5.7 5.1 4.5 4.5 6.5 9.1 7.6 9.1 15.2 24.6 2-90 5.1 4.7 4.8 4.1 5.5 5.5 4.8 6.7 5.2 5.7 8.4 9.5 -4.1 5-90 4.7 4.4 4.5 5.7 5.0 5.0 4.2 5.8 4.5 4.5 6.2 6.1 -2.1 112.9 115.5 115.6 115.2 0.0 115.2 4-90 4.4 4.0 4.0 5.4 2.7 2.7 5.7 5.0 5.7 5.7 5 .0 4.6 -1.4 0.0 0.0 5-90 4.0 5.7 5.6 5.1 2.4 2.5 5.2 4.5 5.1 5.1 5.9 5.4 -1.5 - 0.5 -0. 5 -1. 0 6-90 4.1 5.8 5.8 5.2 2.6 2.6 5.4 4.4 5.5 5.5 4.1 5.7 0.0 1.0 1.4 2.1 5.5 7-90 3.8 3.4 3.4 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.9 5.8 2.8 2.7 5.5 2 .9 -0.5 0.4 0.5 0.7 1.6 -2.1 8-90 4.5 4.5 4.2 5.8 5.5 5.5 4.1 5.0 4.2 4.5 5.0 4.8 2.2 5.5 4.0 5.0 7.1 8.0 19.2 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8 -89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 115.2 115.1 115.6 115.4 117.1 INITIAL M O N T H P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. LOUIS S E P T E M B E R 14. 1990 6 I N D U S T R I A L RATIO P R O D U C T I O N SCALE RATIO 1987-100 1982 SCALE 1987-100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATE$ OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED * AUGUST PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS INDUSTRIAL P R O D U C T I O N ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L MONTH 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 1987 « 100 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 107.6 2-89 -1.1 5-89 0.0 1.1 4-89 5*4 5.7 107.7 10.5 108.6 5-89 1.7 2.6 5.4 -5.5 6-89 1.6 2.2 2.6 -1.1 1.1 7-89 0.2 0.4 0.5 -2.9 -2.7 8-89 0.8 1.1 1.1 -1.1 -0.4 -1.1 4.5 9-89 0.7 1.0 0.9 -0.9 -0.5 -0.7 2.2 10-89 0.0 0.1 0.0 -1.7 -1.5 -1.9 -0.4 -2.7 -5.4 11-89 0.4 0.6 0.6 -0.8 -0.4 -0.7 0.8 -0.4 -0.6 4.5 12-89 0.9 1.1 1.1 0.0 0.5 0.4 1.8 1.1 1.5 5.1 1-90 -0.2 -0.1 -0.2 -1.5 -1.1 -1.4 -0.6 -1.5 -1.9 -0.7 2-90 0.7 0.8 -0.1 0.2 0.1 1.1 0.6 0.7 2.2 1.5 -0.6 11.8 5-90 1.0 1.1 1.1 0.5 0.7 0.6 1.5 1.1 1.5 2.7 2.2 1.1 8.1 4-90 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.2 0.5 0.4 1.2 0.8 1.0 2.1 1.6 0.6 4.9 1.7 -1.1 5-90 1.2 1.5 1.4 0.7 1.0 1.0 1.8 1.5 1.7 2.7 2.4 1.8 5.4 5.4 2.8 6.8 6-90 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.1 1.4 1.5 2.2 2.0 2.2 5.2 5.0 2.6 5.7 4.2 4.1 6.8 6.8 7-90 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.0 1.5 1.4 2.0 1.8 2.0 2.9 2.6 2.2 4.7 5.4 5.1 4.5 5.5 0.0 8-90 1.2 1.4 1.4 0.8 1.1 1.1 1.7 1.5 1.6 2.5 2.1 1.7 5.7 2.4 2.0 2.8 1.5 -1.1 -2.2 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 108.5 108.4 -6.4 107.8 108.2 0.0 108.2 107.7 108.1 5.7 108.6 -5.5 -11.5 107.5 108.5 108.9 4.5 108.8 109.4 110.0 110.OP 109.8P INITIAL M O N T H P- P R ELIMINARY P R E P A R E D B Y FEDE R A L R E S E R V E BAN K OF ST* LOUIS S E P T E M B E R 14. 1990 7 P E R S O N A L RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS MONTHLY OF DOLLARS I N C O M E TOTALS AT SEASONALLY ANNUAL RATIO RATES TRILLIONS ADJUSTED OF SCALE DOLLARS 3. 3.8 3. 3.4 3. 3.0 2 . 2 .6 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 2 .2 SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« AUGUST PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS PERSONAL INCOME ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) INITIAL M O N T H TERMINAL MONTH 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 BILLIONS OF DOL L A R S ANN U A L R A T E S 4*502.2 2-89 11.9 5-89 11.8 11.7 4-89 9.4 8.2 4.8 5-89 6.8 5.2 2.0 -0.7 6-89 6.5 5.0 2.8 1.8 4.4 7-89 6.5 5.4 5.9 5.6 5.8 7.5 8-89 5.6 4.5 5.2 2.7 5.9 5.6 0.1 9-89 5.3 4.4 5.2 2.9 5.8 5.6 1.8 5.6 10-89 5.6 4.9 5.9 5.8 4.7 4.8 5.9 5.9 8 .5 11-89 5.9 5.2 4.4 4.4 5.5 5.4 5.0 6.6 8 .2 8.1 12-89 6.0 5.4 4.8 4.8 5.6 5.8 5.5 6.8 7.9 7.8 7.4 1-90 6.5 5.8 5.5 5.5 6.1 6.5 6.2 7.4 8.4 8.5 8 .6 9.9 2-90 6.5 6.0 5.5 5.6 6.5 6.6 6.5 7.5 8 .4 8.4 8 .5 9.0 8.1 5-90 6.7 6.5 5.8 5.9 6.6 6.8 6.8 7.8 8 .5 8.5 8 .6 9.0 8 .6 9.1 4-90 6.4 6.0 5.6 5.6 6.2 6.4 6.3 7.1 7.6 7.5 7.4 7.4 6.5 5.8 2.6 5-90 6.5 5.9 5.5 5.5 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.8 7.2 7.1 6.9 6.8 6.0 5.5 5.5 4.5 4 >542.2 4 * 559.5 4 * 556.8 4*5 7 2 . 5 4 * 5 98.2 4*5 9 8 . 7 4 *411.6 4 * 441.0 4 , 470.0 4 * 496.7 4 * 552.2 4 * 561.6 4 * 594.7 4*604.5 4*621.4 6-90 6.2 5.8 5.5 5.5 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.6 7.0 6.8 6.6 6.5 5.8 5.5 4.1 4.8 5.1 7-90 6.2 5.9 5.5 5.6 6.0 6.2 6.1 6.6 6.9 6.8 6.6 6.5 5.9 5.5 4.6 5.5 5.8 6.4 8-90 6.1 5.7 5.4 5.4 5.9 6.0 5.9 6.5 6.6 6.4 6.2 6.1 5.6 5.2 4.4 4.8 5.0 4.9 5.4 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 4*640.7 4*664.7 4 * 6 7 7 . 7P INITIAL M O N T H P- PRELIMINARY P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L RES E R V E B A N K OF ST. LOU I S S E PTEMBER 26* 1990 8 RETAIL RATIO SALES RATIO SCALE BILLIONS 1982 OF DOLLARS 1983 SEASONALLY 1984 1985 BILLIONS ADJUSTED 1986 1987 1988 1989 OF SCALE DOLLARS 1990 SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED* JULY, AUGUST ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS RETAIL SALES ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL MONTH MILLIONS OF DOLLARS IN IT IA L MONTH 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 141.179 2-89 -7.5 5-89 -5.7 0.5 4-89 4.7 11.4 25.7 5-89 5.4 10.1 15.4 4—89 5.6 6.6 2.0 -5.4 7-89 4.4 6.9 4.0 2.5 8.5 8-89 5.7 8.1 9.7 6.4 6.1 11.1 14.0 9-89 5.5 7.5 8.7 5.9 5.5 8.7 8.8 10-89 5.0 4.5 4.9 2.1 1.0 2.2 0.2 -6.1 -15.1 11-89 5.6 4.9 5.1 2.4 5.6 2.4 -1.2 -5.6 9.4 12-89 2.9 5.9 4.4 2.2 1.4 2.2 1.1 -2.0 -5.8 2.5 -4.5 1-90 5.5 6.7 7.4 5.7 5.5 6.8 6.6 5.2 5.5 15.4 15.4 59.2 2-90 5.1 6.2 6.7 5.2 4.9 6.0 5.7 4.5 4.4 9.9 10.1 18.1 0.2 5-90 4.5 5.5 4.2 5.9 4.7 4.5 5.0 2.8 6.8 6.2 9.9 -2.5 -4.7 4-90 5.2 4.1 4.4 2.9 2.5 5.1 2.5 1.1 0.8 5.7 2.6 4.5 -5.2 -7.8 -10.8 5-90 5.0 5.7 4.0 2.6 2.2 2.7 2.2 0.9 0.6 5.0 2.0 5.5 -4.1 -5.5 -6.0 -0.8 6—90 5.6 4.4 4.6 5.4 5.1 5.6 5.2 2.2 2.0 4.4 5.6 5.0 -0.7 -0.9 0.5 6.4 14.5 7-90 5.7 4.4 4.7 5.5 5.2 5.7 5.4 2.4 2.5 4.4 5.8 5.0 0.2 0.2 1.5 6.0 9.6 5.1 8-90 5.1 5.8 4.0 2.8 2.5 5.0 2.6 1.7 1.5 5.5 2.6 5.5 -0.8 -0.9 -0.2 2.7 5.9 -0.9 -6.6 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 5-89 6-89 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 141.214 145.744 144.626 7.6 144.210 145.170 146.767 147.255 5.9 145.244 146.540 145.804 149.877 149.904 149.502 147.886 147.781 149.452 150.049P 149.198E IN ITIAL M O N T H P- PRELIMINARY E- E S TIMATED P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BAN K O F ST. L O U I S S E P T E M B E R 14. 1990 9 H O U R L Y COMPENSATION, BUSINESS SECTOR ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) T ERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL Q U A R T E R 5-85 4-85 1-86 2 -86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1982*100 2-88 1-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 115.5 4-85 6« 1 1-86 5.7 2-86 5.5 4.9 4.5 5-86 5.1 4.8 4.5 4.5 116.8 5.5 118.1 1Î9.4 120.9 4— 86 5.1 4.9 4.7 4.8 5.1 1-87 4.7 4.4 4.2 4.1 5.9 2.7 2-87 4.5 4.0 5.7 5.5 5.1 2.2 121.7 122.2 1.7 125.5 5-87 4.5 4.0 5.8 5.6 5.4 2.9 5.0 4.5 4-87 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 5.9 4.5 5.6 7.0 1-88 4.5 4.4 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.5 5.2 5.6 4.2 2-88 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.5 5.2 5.5 4.8 5.5 5-88 4.7 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.5 4.4 4.7 5.5 5 .5 5.0 5.4 5.4 4-88 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 5.0 5.1 4.7 4.9 4.6 125.6 126.9 128.6 150.5 5.7 151.5 1-89 4.4 4.5 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.6 4 .6 4.2 4.2 5.7 2.9 2.1 2-89 4.5 4.2 4.1 4.0 4.0 5.9 4.0 4.5 4.5 5.9 5.8 5.4 2.8 2.5 5-89 4.1 4.0 5.9 5.8 5.8 5.6 5.7 4.0 5.9 5.5 5.4 5.0 2.4 1.9 1.8 1.2 4-89 4.0 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.4 5.5 2.9 2.4 2.1 2.1 2.0 152.2 155.0 2.4 155.4 2.7 154.5 1-90 4.0 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.7 5.6 5.6 5.8 5.8 5.4 5.5 5.0 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.5 5.2 5.6 2-90 4.1 4.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.8 4.0 4.0 5.7 5.6 5.4 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.4 4.1 4.8 6.0 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4 -87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 155.5 157.5 I NITIAL QUAR T E R P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S S E P T E M B E R 4. 1990 O U T P U T PER H O U R O F ALL PERSONS, BUSINESS SECTOR ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) T ERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL QUA R T E R 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4 -87 1982*100 2-88 1-88 5-88 4-85 1.5 1-86 4.5 7.2 2-86 2.5 5.0 -l.l 5-86 1.5 1.5 -1.5 -1. 5 4-86 1.5 1.5 - 0.6 -0.4 0.7 1-87 1.2 1.1 -0.4 -0.1 0.5 2-87 1.5 1.5 0.4 0.7 1.5 1.8 5.5 5-87 1.7 1.7 0.8 1.2 1.8 2.2 5.1 2.9 4-87 1.8 1.8 1.0 1.4 2.0 2.5 2.9 2.7 2.5 1-88 2.0 2.0 1.4 1.8 2.5 2.6 5.2 5.1 5.5 2-88 1.7 1.7 1.1 1.4 1.8 2.0 2.5 2.1 1.8 1.4 -l.l 5-88 1.8 1.8 1.5 1.5 1.9 2.1 2.4 2.2 2 .0 1.8 0.7 2.5 4—88 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.0 0.0 0.5 -1.4 4-88 1-89 2-89 5 -89 4-89 1-90 108.1 110.0 109.7 109.5 109.5 0.4 109.6 110.5 111.5 112.0 4.0 115.1 112.8 115.5 115.1 1-89 1.5 1.5 1.0 1.2 1.4 1.5 1.7 1.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.6 -0.4 0.7 2-89 1.4 1.4 0.9 1.1 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.0 0*8 0.1 0.4 -0. 2 0.4 0.0 115.5 115.5 5-89 1.2 1.1 0.7 0.9 1.1 l.l 1.2 0.9 0.7 0.4 -0.2 0.0 -0.6 -0. 4 -0.9 -1 . 8 4-89 1.0 1.0 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.4 0.1 -0.4 -0.5 -0. 8 -0.7 -1 . 2 -1.8 - 1. 8 1-90 0.9 0.8 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.7 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 -0.5 -0.5 - 0.9 -0.8 -1 . 2 -1.6 -1.6 -1.4 2-90 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.5 0.1 -0.5 -0.2 -0. 6 -0.5 -0.7 -0.9 -0.6 0.0 1.4 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5 -87 4-87 1-88 2 -88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 112.8 112.5 111.9 112.5 INITIAL Q U A RTER P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S S E P T E M B E R 4» 1990 10 P R O D UCTIVITY, RATIO COMPENSATION, AND LABOR SCALE 1 982-100 1982 COSTS RATIO S EA SO N A L LY 1983 1984 1985 1986 SCALE 1982 -1 0 0 A D JU S TE D 1987 1988 1989 1990 SOURCE« U .S . DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEO« 2ND OUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS U N I T L A B O R COSTS, BUSINESS S E C T O R ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 1982*100 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 106.7 4-85 5.0 1-86 1.5 2-86 2.8 1.7 5.4 3-86 3.6 3.1 5.7 4-86 3.8 3.5 5.3 5.3 4.5 1-87 3.5 3.2 4.5 4.2 3.3 2.2 2-87 2.8 2.4 3.3 2.8 1.7 0.4 -1.4 3-87 2.6 2.3 3.0 2.5 1.6 0.7 0.0 1.5 4-87 2.8 2.5 3.1 2.8 2.1 1.5 1.3 2.7 4.0 106.2 -1.9 107.6 6.1 109.2 110.4 111.0 110.6 111.0 112.1 1-88 2.5 2.3 2.8 2.4 1.8 1.3 1.1 1.9 2.2 0.4 2-88 2.9 2.7 3.2 2.9 2.5 2.2 2.2 3.1 3.6 3.4 6.6 3-88 2.9 2.7 3.2 2.9 2.5 2.3 2.3 3.0 3.4 3.2 4.7 2.8 4-88 3.1 2.9 3.4 3.2 2.8 2.6 2.7 3.4 3.8 3.7 4.9 4.1 5.3 112.2 114.0 114.8 116.3 1-89 3.0 2.8 3.2 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.5 3.1 3.4 3.3 4.0 3.2 3.3 1.4 2-89 2.9 2.8 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.7 3.0 3.0 1.9 2.4 3-89 2.9 2.8 3.1 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.5 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.5 2.9 3.0 2.2 2.6 2.8 4-89 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.1 2.8 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.3 3.7 3.2 3.3 2.8 3.3 3.8 4.8 1-90 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.9 3,4 3.5 3.5 3.9 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.8 4.2 5.0 5.1 2-90 3.2 3.1 3.4 3.3 3.1 3.0 3.1 3.4 3.6 3.6 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.5 3.9 4.3 4.8 4.7 4.4 3-85 4-85 1—86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 116.7 117.4 118.2 119.6 121.1 122.4 INITIAL QUARTER P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B ANK O F ST. L O U I S S E P T E M B E R 4. 1990 11 G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) T E RMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 3-85 4— 8 5 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 4-85 6.2 1-86 6.7 7.3 2-86 4.9 4.3 1.3 3-86 5.1 4.7 3.5 5.7 4-86 4.9 4.6 3.7 5.0 4.2 1-87 5.6 5.5 5.0 6.3 6.6 9.1 2-87 5.9 5.8 5.5 6.6 6.9 8.3 7.5 3-87 6.1 6.0 5.8 6.8 7.0 8.0 7.4 7.4 4-87 6.3 6.4 6.2 7.1 7.4 8.2 7.8 8.0 8.7 1-88 6.5 6.5 6.4 7.2 7.4 8.1 7.8 8.0 8.3 7.8 8.0 8.3 8.1 8.3 2-88 3-88 1-89 4-8 4 »253.3 4.297.3 4.391.6 4.471.6 4.551.7 4*647.6 4.735.8 8.1 6.7 7.3 7.5 8.0 7.8 7.9 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.4 6.8 6.8 7.4 7.5 8.0 7.8 7.9 8.0 7.8 7.8 7.5 7.7 6.9 6.9 7.4 7.5 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.6 7.5 6.8 6.8 6.8 7.2 7.4 7.7 7.6 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.7 5.8 4-88 6.8 1-89 6.8 2-89 1-90 4.194.7 7.6 6.7 4-89 4,107.9 7.3 6.7 3-88 3-89 4»181.3 7.9 2-88 2-8 9 BI L L I O N S O F DO L L A R S ANNUAL RATES 6.7 6.8 6.6 4.831.4 4.917.9 5*009.8 5*101.3 5*174.0 3-89 6.7 6.7 6.7 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.3 7.3 7.3 7.1 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.1 5.5 5.1 4-89 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.8 6.9 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.6 4.9 4.5 3.9 1-90 6.5 6.5 6.5 6.8 6.9 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.1 5.8 5.4 5.2 5.3 6.7 2-90 6.4 6.5 6.4 6.7 6.8 7.0 6.8 6.8 6.7 6.5 6.4 6.1 6.0 5.7 5.3 5.2 5.2 5.9 5.1 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4—88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 5.238.6 5.289.3 5.375.4 5.443.3 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 25» 1990 G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T I N 1982 D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 2-88 1-88 3-88 1-89 4-88 2-89 3-89 4-89 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 1-90 3.662.4 4-85 3.0 1-86 4.7 6.6 2-86 2.5 2.3 -1.8 3-86 2.1 1.8 -0.5 3.721.1 3.704.6 0.8 3.712.4 ¿ —86 2.1 1.9 0.4 1.6 2.3 1-87 2.6 2.6 1.6 2.8 3.7 5.2 2-87 2.9 2.9 2.1 3.1 3.9 4.7 4.2 3-87 3.0 3.0 2.5 3.3 3.9 4.5 4.2 4.1 4-87 3.4 3.5 3.0 3.9 4.5 5.0 4.9 5.3 6.6 1-88 3.6 3.7 3.3 4.0 4.6 5.0 5.0 5.3 5.9 5.1 2-88 3.6 3.7 3.3 4.0 4.4 4.8 4.7 4.9 5.1 4.4 3.733.6 3*781.2 3*820.3 3*858.9 3*920.7 3*970.2 4*005.8 3.6 3-88 3.5 3.6 3.3 3.8 4.2 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.5 3.8 3.1 2.7 4-88 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.5 3.0 2.7 2.7 1-89 3.5 3.5 3.2 3.7 4.0 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 3.6 3.2 3.0 3.2 3.6 2-89 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.5 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.2 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6 1.6 3-89 3.2 3.3 3.0 3.4 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.0 2.7 2.5 2.4 2.3 1.7 1.7 4-89 3.1 3.1 2.8 3.2 3.4 3.4 3.3 3.2 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.2 1.0 0.3 1-90 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.6 2.2 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.3 1.2 1.0 1.7 2-90 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.9 3.0 3.1 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.3 2.0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.0 0.8 1.1 0.4 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 4*032.1 4*059.3 4*095.7 4*112.2 4.129.7 4.133.2 4*150.6 4*155.1 IN IT IA L QUARTER P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F S T ♦ L O UIS SEPT E M B E R 25» 1990 12 G R O S S RATIO SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES RATIO SCALE DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 SOURCE: U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6E FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: 2ND QUARTER PREPARED 13 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. L O UIS 2 . 8 2 . 6 G E N E R A L RATIO P R I C E I N D E X * SCALE RATIO SCALE 1982-100 1982 1982-100 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 «AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt 2ND QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS IMPLICIT PRICE D E F L A T O R F O R G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 1982 « 100 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 112.2 4—85 3,3 1-86 2.0 0.7 2-86 2.3 1.8 112.4 2.9 113.2 114.6 3-86 3.0 2.9 4.0 5.0 4-86 2.7 2.6 3.2 3.4 1.8 1-87 2.9 2.8 3.3 3.4 2.6 3.5 2-87 2.9 2.8 3.3 3.4 2.8 3.3 3.1 3-87 3.0 2.9 3.3 3.4 3.0 3.4 3.3 4-87 2.8 2.8 3.1 1-88 2.8 2.8 3.0 2-88 3.0 2.9 3-88 3.1 3.1 3.3 4-88 3.2 3.2 3.5 1-89 3.3 3.3 3.5 2-89 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 3-89 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 4-89 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.6 1-90 3.4 3.4 3.6 3.7 2-90 3.5 3.5 3.7 3.7 3.6 3.8 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 3.2 3.1 3.0 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 115.1 3.0 2.9 3.2 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 116.1 2.8 117.0 118.0 3.5 2.6 118.5 1.7 119.3 2.2 2.7 3.1 2.9 3.6 4.4 3.4 3.4 4.0 4.6 4.7 3.6 4.1 4.6 4.7 4.7 3.7 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.3 3.9 3.7 3.7 4.1 4.3 4.3 4.2 3.9 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.1 3.9 3.7 3.6 3.2 3.7 3.7 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.8 3.8 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.1 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.3 4.8 3.8 3.8 3.9 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.7 4.7 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2.8 3.1 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.7 2.6 3.6 3.7 120.6 122.0 123.4 124.6 125.8 126.8 128.0 3.8 129.5 131.0 INITIAL Q U ARTER P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S S E P T E M B E R 25* 1990 14 P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 5-85 4-85 6.0 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 1-86 5.6 5.1 5.0 4.5 4.0 5-86 6.2 6.2 6.8 9.8 4-86 6.2 6.2 6.6 7.9 6.2 1-87 6.4 6.4 6.8 7.7 6.7 7.5 2-87 6.8 7.0 7.5 8.2 7.7 8.4 9.6 5-87 7.1 7.2 7.6 8.5 8 .0 8.6 9.5 8.9 6.8 7.0 7.5 7.1 7.5 7.4 6.2 6.7 5-89 2,987.2 5,051.6 5.7 5,079.1 5,147.7 7.5 7.8 7.5 7.7 7.8 7.2 6.4 9.2 7.1 7.5 7.7 7.4 7.7 7.7 7.5 6.7 8.5 7.4 7.2 7.4 7.8 7.5 7.7 7.8 7.5 7.1 8.5 7.8 8.2 7.5 7.8 7.6 7.8 7.9 7.6 7.5 8.2 7.9 8.2 7.5 5,204.5 5,268.2 8.1 5,552.6 5,571.7 1-89 7.0 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.5 7.2 6.9 7.5 7.1 7.0 6.4 4.8 2-89 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.1 6.8 7.4 7.0 6.9 6.5 5.7 6.6 5-89 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.4 7.2 7.5 7.5 7.1 6.9 7.5 7.0 6.9 6.6 6.1 6.8 7.0 5.8 5.5 4.0 6.4 6.4 6.0 6.8 1-90 6.9 1-90 2,919.5 7.0 4-89 4-89 2,868.5 6.9 7.2 2-89 2,826.0 7.0 4-88 1-89 2,761.0 1-88 7.1 4-88 2,754.5 2-88 5-88 5-88 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 2,700.4 2—86 4-87 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 6.8 6.9 7.0 7.0 7.2 7.2 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.1 7.0 7.1 6.8 6.9 6.5 6.7 6.9 6.8 7.0 6.1 6.4 6.6 5.6 6.4 6.7 6.1 5,425.9 5,484.5 5,518.5 5,588.1 8.2 6.7 6.7 6.8 7.0 6.8 6.9 6.9 6.6 6.4 6.7 6.4 6.5 6.1 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.5 6.0 5.9 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 5,622.7 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 25, 1990 P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S I N 1982 D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 5-85 4-85 1.9 1-86 5.0 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 2,586.9 4.1 2,410.9 2-86 5.2 5.8 5.6 5-86 5.7 4.4 4.5 5.4 4-86 5.4 5.8 5.7 5.8 2,452.4 2,464.4 2.2 2,477.8 1-87 5.0 5.2 5.0 2.7 1.4 0.7 2-87 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.2 2.5 2.6 2,482.2 2,509.9 4.5 5-87 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 2.9 5.2 4.4 4.5 4-87 2.9 5.0 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 2.8 1.9 -0.4 2,556.6 2,554.2 1-88 5.5 5.5 5.4 5.4 5.0 5.2 5.8 5.6 5.2 6.9 2-88 5.2 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.0 5.1 5.6 5.4 5.0 4.8 2.7 2,576.8 2,594.1 5-88 5.5 5.4 5.5 3.5 5.0 5.2 5.6 5.4 5.1 4.5 5.1 5.5 4-88 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.5 5.1 5.2 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.1 5.2 5.5 5.5 1-89 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 2.7 2.8 5.1 2.9 2.6 5.2 2.5 2.2 1.6 -0.5 2-89 2.9 5.0 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.7 2.4 2.9 2.1 2.0 1.5 0.5 1.5 5-89 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.0 2.8 2.8 5.0 2.9 2.7 5.1 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.8 2.9 4.6 4-89 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.0 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.7 1.9 -0.8 1-90 2.7 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.4 2.4 2.6 2.4 2.2 2.5 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.5 1.6 0.1 1.1 2-90 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.0 2.2 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.5 1.5 0.2 0.7 0.2 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 2,616.4 2,658.8 2,656.7 2,645.5 2,675.5 2,669.9 2,677.5 2,678.8 INITIAL Q U ARTER P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BAN K O F ST. L O U I S S E P T E M B E R 25, 1990 15 G R O S S P R I V A T E D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T DM C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 4-85 18.7 1-86 19.1 2-86 6.5 1.0 -14.7 5-86 5.4 -1.5 -10.5 -5.7 4—86 2.8 -0.8 -6.8 -2.5 0.7 1-87 5.5 2.8 -1.0 4.0 9.2 18.5 2-87 5.6 5.6 0.7 4.9 8.7 12.9 7.8 5-87 5.0 5.2 0.7 4.0 6.6 8.7 4.2 0.6 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 BIL L I O N S OF DOLLARS 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 654.1 685.8 19.4 657.2 647.7 648.8 676.7 689.5 690.6 741.4 4-87 7.8 6.5 4.7 8.4 11.4 14.5 12.9 15.6 52.8 1-88 6.2 4.9 5.5 6.1 8.2 9.8 7.8 7.7 11.5 2-88 6.5 5.4 5.9 6.5 8.4 9.8 8.1 8.2 10.8 1.2 9.5 5-88 6.9 5.9 4.6 7.0 8.7 9.9 8.6 8.7 10.9 4.4 10.2 10.9 4-88 5.6 4.5 5.5 5.5 6.6 7.5 5.9 5.5 6.5 0.8 5.4 0.4 -9.1 1-89 6.0 5.1 4.0 5.9 7.1 7.9 6.7 6.5 7.5 5.0 5.6 4.5 1.1 12.4 2-89 5.9 5.0 4.0 5.7 6.8 7.5 6.5 6.1 6.9 5.1 5.2 4.1 1.9 8.0 5.7 5-89 5.5 4.7 5.7 5.2 6.2 6.7 5.6 5.4 6.0 2.6 4.2 5.2 1.5 5.1 1.6 -0.5 4-89 4.7 5.9 5.0 4.5 5.2 5.5 4.4 4.1 4.5 1.4 2.6 1.5 -0.5 2.0 -1.2 -5.6 -6.6 -6.4 729.2 746.0 765.6 747.5 769.7 776.7 775.8 762.7 0 1 4.0 5.2 2.2 5.5 4.2 4.4 5.4 5.0 5.2 0.5 1.2 0.1 -1.6 0.0 -2.9 -5.0 -7.2 -7.9 2-90 4.1 5.4 2.5 5.7 4.5 4.6 5.6 5.5 5.5 0.9 1.8 0.9 -0.5 1.0 -1.1 -2.5 -2.9 -1.0 6.5 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 747.2 759.0 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 25» 1990 G R O S S P R I V A T E D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T I N 1982 D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 648.0 4-85 20.8 1-86 19.6 2-86 5-86 4-86 -0.4 1-87 2.8 -0.4 2-87 5.7 5-87 18.5 676.1 5.5 -1.8 -18.5 642.5 l.l -4.7 -14.5 -10.5 -5.1 -11.8 625.1 615.2 -8.5 -6.2 -4.6 0.5 6.4 20.6 1.1 -2.0 2.6 7.5 14.8 9.2 5.8 1.6 -1.0 2.9 6.5 11.1 6.6 4.1 4-87 6.1 4.4 2.6 6.6 10.5 14.9 15.0 14.9 26.9 1-88 5 .0 5.4 1.6 4.9 7.7 10.7 8.5 8.0 10.1 -4.6 2-88 4.9 5.4 1.9 4.8 7.1 9.5 7.4 7.0 8.0 -0.4 5.9 5-88 5.4 4.1 2.7 5.4 7.5 9.7 7.9 7.7 8.6 5.1 7.2 4-88 5.7 2.4 1.1 5.5 4.9 6.4 4.5 5.7 5.6 -1.5 -0.4 644.7 659.1 665.7 706.6 698.4 705.1 10.5 725.0 -2.5 -14.0 696.2 1-89 4.5 5.2 2.0 4.1 5.6 7.0 5.5 4.9 5.1 1.2 2.7 2.5 -1.7 12.5 2-89 4.1 5.0 1.9 5.8 5.2 6.4 5.0 4.5 4.5 1.2 2.4 2.0 -0.7 6.7 717.0 719.1 1.2 5-89 4.0 2.9 1.9 5.7 4.9 6.0 4.7 4.2 4.2 1.5 2.5 1.9 -0.1 5.0 1.5 1.8 4-89 5.5 2.5 1.5 2.9 4.0 4.8 5.5 5.0 2.8 0.2 0.9 0.4 -1.5 1.9 -1.5 -2.8 -7.1 1-90 2.8 1.9 0.9 2.5 5.5 4.1 2.8 2.5 2.1 -0.4 0.2 -0.4 -2.1 0.5 -2.5 -5.4 -5.9 -4.7 2-90 2.7 1.8 0.8 2.2 5.1 5.8 2.6 2.1 1.9 -0.5 0.1 -0.5 -1.8 0.4 -1.8 -2.6 -4.0 -2.4 0.0 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 722 «5 709.1 700.7 700.7 INITIAL Q U A R T E R P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. LOUIS SEP T E M B E R 25. 1990 16 G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V I C E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 3-85 4-85 8.1 1-86 2.4 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3-89 4-89 1-90 856.7 -3.0 850.3 2-86 4.6 3.0 9.2 3-86 4.8 3.7 7.2 5.2 4-86 4.6 3.8 6.1 4.6 4.0 1-87 5.0 4.4 6.4 5.4 5.6 7.2 2-87 4.7 4.2 5.6 4.8 4.6 5.0 869.3 880.3 888.9 904.5 2.8 910.7 3-87 5.1 4.7 6.0 5.4 5.5 6.0 5.4 8.1 4-87 5.2 4.9 6.0 5.5 5.6 6.0 5.6 7.0 5.9 1-88 4.6 4.3 5.2 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.0 4.4 2.7 -0.5 2-88 4.8 4.5 5.3 4.8 4.8 «.9 4.5 4.9 3.9 2.9 6.3 3-88 4.3 4.0 4.7 4.2 4.1 4.1 3.6 3.8 2.7 1.7 2.8 -0.7 4-88 5.5 5.3 6.1 5.8 5.8 6.1 5.9 6.4 6.1 6.2 8.5 9.6 20.8 928.5 942.0 940.9 955.4 953.8 1»000.0 1,008.5 1-89 5.4 5.1 5.9 5.5 5.6 5.8 5.6 6.0 5.7 5.6 7.2 7.5 11.8 3.4 2-89 5.4 5.2 5.8 5.6 5.6 5.8 5.6 6.0 5.7 5.6 6.9 7.0 9.7 4.6 5.8 3-89 5.2 5.0 5.6 5.3 5.3 5.4 5.2 5.5 5.1 5.1 6.1 6.0 7.8 3.7 3.9 2.0 4-89 5.2 5.0 5.6 5.4 5.4 5.5 5.3 5.6 5.3 ^ .2 6.1 6.0 7.4 4.3 4.6 4.1 6.2 1-90 5.5 5.4 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 6.6 6.7 8.0 5.6 6.1 6.2 8.4 10.7 2-90 5.6 5.4 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.9 5.8 6.1 5.9 5.9 6.6 6.6 7.7 5.7 6.1 6.2 7.7 8.4 6.2 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 1.022.7 1»027.8 1.043.3 1.070.1 1*086.4 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 25» 1990 G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V I C E S I N 1982 D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a l Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 4-85 1.6 1-86 -1.5 -4.5 2-86 2.0 2.3 9.5 3-86 2.1 2.2 5.8 4-86 2.8 3.1 5.8 3.9 5.8 1-87 2.3 2.4 4.2 2.5 2.8 -0.2 2-87 1.5 1.5 2.7 1.1 0.7 -1.7 1-87 2-87 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 752.7 744.1 761.2 2.1 765.2 776.0 775.7 -3.2 769.5 3-87 2.0 2.0 3.2 2.0 1.9 0.7 1.1 5.5 4-87 2.4 2.5 3.6 2.6 2.7 2.0 2.7 5.7 6.0 1-88 1.2 1.2 1.9 0.8 0.6 -0.4 -0.4 0.5 -1.9 -9.2 2-88 1.4 1.4 2.0 1.1 1.0 0.2 0.3 1.2 -0.2 -3.2 3.3 779.8 791.3 772.4 778.7 3-88 0.9 0.9 1.4 0.6 0.4 -0.4 -0.4 0.2 -1.1 -3.4 -0.3 -3.8 4-88 2.0 2.0 2.7 2.0 2.0 1.5 1.8 2.6 2.1 1.1 4.8 5.5 15.7 1-89 1.6 1.6 2.2 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.1 0.2 2.7 2.5 5.8 -3.3 2-89 1.8 1.8 2.3 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.4 2.0 1.5 0.8 3.0 2.9 5.2 0.3 4.0 771.2 799.9 793.2 801.0 3-89 1.5 1.5 2.0 1.4 1.3 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.0 0.4 2.0 1.8 3.2 -0.6 0.8 -2.4 4-89 1.6 1.6 2.0 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.3 0.7 2.2 2.0 3.2 0.3 1.5 0.3 1-90 1.7 1.7 2.1 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.4 0.9 2.3 2.1 3.1 0.8 1.9 1.2 3.0 2.9 2-90 1.9 1.9 2.3 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.7 2.1 1.9 1.4 2.7 2.6 3.6 1.7 2.7 2.4 4.0 4.5 6.2 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 796.2 3.0 802.2 807.9 820.2 INITIAL QUARTER P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK O F ST. L O U I S S E P T E M B E R 25» 1990 17 D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) Rates of C h a n g e ) IN IT IA L QUARTER terminal QUARTER 4-85 1-86 8.6 1-86 8.6 2-86 7.9 8.5 7.5 6.5 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 B I L LI O N S OF DOLL A R S ANNUAL RATES 4-85 2*899.5 2,959.2 5*006.5 5-86 6.5 5.8 4.4 2.4 4-86 6.2 5.7 4.7 5.8 1-87 6 .9 6.6 6.1 6.0 7.8 10.4 2-87 5.6 5.1 4.5 4.0 4.5 4.1 -1.8 5-87 6.5 6.0 5.6 5.4 6.2 6.5 4.6 11.4 4-87 6.9 6.7 6.5 6.5 7.5 7.8 7.0 11.6 11.9 7.6 10.9 10.7 9.6 9.6 8.5 9.6 8.9 9.1 5*024.5 5.5 5*065.4 5*159.8 5*125.7 7.6 8.2 8.0 7.6 7.5 7.9 8.5 7.9 10.0 10.0 7.2 7.8 8.1 7.8 9.4 1-88 2-88 7.2 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.7 7.2 7.1 6.9 7.0 5-88 7.4 7.5 7.2 4-88 7.4 7.5 7.2 5*211.1 5*502.5 5*578.6 7.4 5*459.4 8.4 8.6 8.0 8.5 9.7 5*520.1 6.9 5*578.9 1-89 7.5 7.4 7.4 7.4 8.0 8.5 8.0 9.5 9.1 8.6 8.4 8.7 2-89 7.5 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.6 7.8 7.5 8.8 8.4 7.8 7.5 7.5 5-89 7.1 7.0 6.9 7.0 7.4 7.6 7.5 8.5 8.0 7.4 7.1 7.0 4-89 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.5 7.4 7.2 8.1 7.8 7.5 6.9 6.9 1-90 7.2 7.1 7.1 7.1 7.4 7.6 7.4 8.5 7.9 7.5 7.5 7.5 6.2 4.5 6.2 5.1 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.2 2-90 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.9 7.2 7.5 7.1 7.9 7.6 7.2 6.9 6.8 6.4 6.4 5.7 5-85 4-85 5-86 4—86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 1-86 2-86 8.2 6.8 9.6 6.7 5*661.7 5.9 6.5 5*697.5 5.1 5*745.4 5.6 6.1 6.9 7.9 9.6 6.2 6.5 6.7 4.0 5-89 4-89 1-90 2-89 5*799.6 5*887.7 5*925.7 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST, LOUIS SEPTEMBER 25» 1990 D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E I N 1982 D O L L A R S ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) Rates of C h a n g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 4-85 1-86 2-86 5.9 4-86 5.5 5.5 1.9 -0.2 1-87 5.5 5.5 2.5 1-88 2-88 2-87 5-87 1-88 2-88 4-87 5-88 2.0 1.6 2.6 2.4 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 0.5 1.5 2*648.6 1.1 -0.8 2*657.5 1.4 2*646.2 2.5 5.6 -0.6 -1.5 2*669.5 2*626.5 -6.5 0.6 1.2 1.2 0.0 6.7 2*669.2 5.1 5.0 2.4 1.7 2.4 2.7 2.4 7.1 7.5 5.5 5.4 5.0 2.5 5.2 5.6 5.6 7.1 7.4 7.5 6.0 2*717.9 2*765.9 5.5 5.4 2.9 2.5 5.2 5.5 5.4 5.8 5.0 2.7 5-88 5.6 5.5 5.1 2.8 5.4 5.7 5.7 5.6 4.9 5.8 4.9 4-88 5.5 5.4 5.0 2.7 5.2 5.5 5.5 4.9 4.5 5.5 5.6 2.5 1-89 5.5 5.5 5.1 2.9 5.5 5.6 5.6 4.8 4.5 5.5 5.8 5.5 2-89 5.2 5.1 5-89 5.2 4-89 1-90 2-90 2.5 2.9 5.1 5.0 4.5 5.9 5.5 5.1 2.8 2.8 2.5 2.9 5.1 5.0 4.1 5.8 5.2 5.1 5.0 2.7 2 .5 5.8 5.5 5.0 5.0 5.0 2.7 2.5 5.7 5.4 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.5 2.5 5.4 5.1 2.7 2-87 5-87 4-87 5-85 4-88 2*609.2 -1.7 4-87 1-87 7.4 5-86 5-87 4-86 2*562.8 6.0 6.8 6.2 4.0 5.9 2.2 2-87 5-86 4.4 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 1-90 4-85 1-86 2-86 2.8 2.8 2.6 5-86 2.9 2.9 2.7 4-86 2.8 2.8 2.6 1-87 2*784.4 2*818.0 2*855.9 2*865.5 4.2 2.6 2.5 1.7 1.5 -1.2 2.6 2.6 2.0 1.9 0.8 2.7 2.4 2.4 1.8 1.7 0.9 2.0 1.2 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.9 1.5 2.2 1.9 2.2 2.1 1.7 1.6 1.1 1.7 1.5 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 2*854.9 2*874.5 2*885.2 2*900.9 2.5 1.4 0.5 4-89 1-90 2*902.8 INITIAL QUARTER P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S S E P T E M B E R 25. 1990 18 C O R P O R A T E PROFITS AFTER TAXES ( C o m p o u n d e d A n n u a ) Rates of C h a n g e ) T E R M INAL QUA R TER 5-85 4-85 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES INITIAL Q U ARTER 4*85 1-«« 2-86 «- 8 « 5-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 «-87 1-88 2-88 *-88 5-88 1-89 2-8 » 5-89 4 -8» 1-90 19.9 155.2 1-86 -2 5.6 - 5 1.4 2-86 -18.1 -52.4 - 5.9 5— 8 6 - 10.5 -18.6 5.4 4-86 -5.1 -10.5 112.9 111.2 115.9 18.0 9.7 18.4 18.8 1-87 2.9 -0.2 19.4 29.5 55.5 54.0 121.0 2-87 7.4 5.4 25.0 51.6 56.4 46.2 154.8 58.7 146.5 155.0 5-87 9.5 8.1 25.5 50.4 55.7 59.1 52.2 26.0 4-87 9.2 8.0 21.0 26.2 27.9 50.2 25.2 16.0 6.9 1-88 12.0 11.2 25.5 28.1 29.9 52.2 27.5 25.7 22.6 40.6 2-88 12.6 11.9 22.7 26.8 28.2 29.8 25.4 22.5 21.1 28.9 18.1 5-88 12.2 11.5 21.2 24.6 25.5 26.5 22.4 19.5 17.7 21.6 15.1 8.5 4-88 12.4 11.8 20.6 25.7 24.5 25.0 21.5 18.7 17.2 20.0 15.8 11.7 15.5 1-89 11.1 10.4 18.5 20.7 21.0 21.5 17.7 15.0 15.2 14.5 8.8 5.9 4.7 2-89 8.2 7.4 14.2 16.1 15.9 15.6 12.0 9.0 6.8 6.7 1.0 -2.9 157.6 171.6 178.9 182.5 189.1 -5.0 186.7 -6.5 -15.5 - 2 4 . 9 175.8 165.6 5-89 6.1 5.2 11.2 12.6 12.2 11.6 8.1 5.1 2.7 2.2 -5.1 -6.9 -10.4 -17.6 - 2 5 . 2 - 2 1 . 5 4-89 6.1 5.5 10.9 12.2 11.8 11.2 7.9 5.5 5.2 2.7 -1.8 -4.8 1-90 5.9 5.1 10.5 11.5 11.0 10.4 7.4 5.0 5.1 2.6 -1.5 -5.8 -5.7 -9.4 - 1 0 . 5 -5.1 4.5 1.9 2-90 5.4 4.7 9.5 10.6 10.1 9.5 6.6 4.5 2.5 2.1 -1.4 -5.6 -5.2 -8.5 -8.9 -4. 4 2.0 -0 . 2 -2.4 5-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-8 9 1-90 -7.2 -12.1 -1 4 . 5 -8.4 166.5 6.8 167.1 166.1 INITIAL QUARTER P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S S E P T E M B E R 25. 1990 H IS T O N A T IO N A L E s t i m o f N C u r r e n t t h e B u I P A J u s i n B u l y S t a t e s . e a l t h D e p a r t m s i n f o J u e e n t f u D l y r t h o f a t a N f o 1 9 8 7 , e r t i s i n f o r m i v i s i o n C o m m r 1 9 8 3 , J u l y t i c a l a t i o n W S O U R C E S t h e r e g A C C O U N T S u l a r p u b l i s h e d 1 9 8 4 , 1 9 8 8 e O F P R O D U C T a t e s In c o m ( B E - 5 4 ) , e r c e , i n a r e E s t i m a t i o n a l t a A N D s e r i e s c t i v e l y . T h e D t h e IN C O M E 1 9 8 7 - 9 0 :1 1 e s s . r e s p i n r r 1 9 2 9 - 8 2 : ______ S F o r W f o l e s 1 9 8 6 , e s s , p u b l i s h e d a n d a t e s t a b R IC A L 1 9 8 5 a n d f o a n d r J u q i n u a r t e r l y t h e a n d l y J u f o r e s e n 1 9 9 0 a r e S u r v e y s e r i e s P r o d u c t p l y 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 9 N I P A D A T A r A c c o u n t s t a t i o S u r v e y p u b l i s h e d o f C f t h e N a t i o o f i n u r r e n t 1 9 2 9 - 8 2 o n U a r e n i t e d T a b l e s . a n d p B u r e a u a s h i n g t o n , r i c e s , o f D . C . 19 w r i t e E c o n o m ic 2 0 2 3 0 . t o A t h e n a l y s i s , U n . S . a l In c o m e INVENTORIES COMPARED WITH MONTHLY SALES M AN UFACTURING AND TRADE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 7 2 7 2 6 8 6 8 6 4 6 4 1 .6 0 6 0 5 6 5 6 5 2 5 2 1.49 4 8 4 8 4 4 4 4 4 0 4 0 3 6 3 6 1 9 7 6 1 9 7 7 1 9 7 8 1 9 7 9 1 9 8 0 1 9 8 1 1 9 8 2 1 9 8 3 1 9 8 4 1 9 8 5 1 9 8 6 1 9 8 7 1 9 8 8 1 9 8 9 1 9 9 0 SOURCE: U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE «BEGINNING IN 1982, INVENTORY DATA REFLECT CHANGES IN ESTIMATION PROCEDURES. SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BUSINESS RECESSIONS. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: JULY PRELIMINARY PREPARED 20 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
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