Full text of National Economic Trends : October 1988
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National Economic Trends October 1988 The Federal Reserve Board’s measure of the rate of capacity utilization in manufacturing has moved up sharply since a year ago, raising concerns among industry analysts that further expansion in demand will boost prices. The capacity utilization rate in manufacturing stood at 83.8 percent in August 1988, down slightly from July’s 83.9 percent, but up 2.8 percent from 81.5 percent in August 1987. Since June of this year, this rate has been above its 1948-79 average of 82.9 percent; the average typically stands as a dividing line representing a “ natural rate” or “ inflation threshold” for the utilization of capacity. Nonetheless, its recent level remains more than 3 percent below earlier peaks of 87.7 percent registered in 1973 and 86.5 percent in 1978. Moreover, specific industries have shown a contrasting pattern of utilization over the past year; industries with relatively high utilization rates have exhibited slow or negative growth, while industries where utilization rates have been rising faster than average are those with relatively low utilization rates. In the 16-industry breakdown of manufacturing utilization, six (aerospace, other durables, textile mill products, paper and products, chemicals and products, and rubber and plastic products) show utilization rates close to (within 3 percent) or exceeding their previous peaks in 1978-80. In three of these industries (textiles, paper and chemicals), the recent rate exceeded its 1978-80 peak, although each was slightly below its higher 1973 peak. But in four of these six industries (textiles, aerospace, paper and other durables) the utilization index has fallen since August 1987. Only in the chemicals industry is a relatively high and a rapidly rising utilization rate observed; its rate rose at a 5.3 percent rate since August 1987. During the same period, the utilization rate rose by more than the average 2.8 percent in seven industries. These include instruments, stone, clay and glass, motor vehicles and parts, fabricated metals, nonelectrical machinery, primary metals and chemicals. Except for chemicals, these industries have relatively low utilization rates, more than 3 percent lower than their peaks of the past 15 years. The recent increase of the overall index overstates the general pressure on capacity because growth has been concentrated where utilization is relatively low. A continuation of the rapid expansion in these industries, however, would soon put their indexes near previous peaks. Industries faced with relatively high and rising utilization rates could more readily follow the example of the chemicals industry, where producer prices were up 10.6 percent in August from a year earlier. —John A. Tatom Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve system. TOTAL CIVILIAN EMPLOYMENT (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH THOUSANDS OF PERSONS INITIAL MONTH 1 -87 2 -8 7 5—87 4 -8 7 5 -8 7 6 -8 7 7-87 8 -8 7 9 -8 7 1 0 -8 7 1 1 -8 7 12-8 7 1-88 2 -8 8 5 -8 8 4 -8 8 5 -8 8 6 -8 8 7 -8 8 1 1 1 ,5 4 4 2 -8 7 5 .6 5-8 7 2 .4 1 .2 4 -8 7 2 .9 2 .5 5 .8 5 -8 7 5 .6 5 .6 4 .8 5 .8 6-8 7 2 .8 2 .6 5 .1 2 .7 1 1 1 »455 1 1 1 ,8 0 6 1 1 2 ,5 5 4 1 1 2 ,5 0 0 -0 .4 1 1 2 ,6 5 9 7-8 7 2 .9 2 .8 5 .2 5 .0 1 .6 5 .7 8 -8 7 5 .2 5 .1 5 .5 5 .4 2 .6 4 .1 4 .5 9-8 7 2 .5 2 .4 2 .6 2 .5 1 .4 2 .1 1 .2 -1 .9 10-87 2 .6 2 .5 2 .7 2 .5 1 .9 2 .5 2 .0 0 .9 5 .7 11-87 2 .7 2 .6 2 .8 2 .6 2 .1 2 .6 2 .5 1 .6 5 .4 5 .2 12-87 2 .7 2 .6 2 .7 2 .6 2 .2 2 .6 2 .4 1 .9 5 .1 2 .9 2 .6 1-88 2 .8 2 .7 2 .9 2 .8 2 .4 2 .8 2 .7 2 .5 5 .4 5 .5 5 .5 4..1 2 -8 8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .9 2 .8 2 .5 2 .8 2 .7 2 .4 5 .5 5 .2 5 .2 5,.6 5 .0 1 1 5 ,0 5 0 1 1 2 ,8 7 2 1 1 5 ,2 1 0 1 1 5 ,5 0 4 1 1 5 ,7 4 4 1 1 4 ,1 2 9 1 1 4 ,4 0 9 5-8 8 2 .4 2 .5 2 .4 2 .2 1 .9 2 .1 2 .0 1 .6 2 .2 1 .9 1 .6 1..5 - 0 .1 - 5 .2 4 -8 8 2 .7 2 .6 2 .7 2 .6 2 .5 2 .6 2 .5 2 .2 2 .8 2 .7 2 .6 2..6 2 .1 1 .6 5 -8 8 2 .1 2 .0 2 .1 2 .0 1 .7 1 .8 1 .7 1 .4 1 .8 1 .5 1 .2 1..0 0 .2 -0 .7 0 .5 -5 .5 6 -8 8 2 .5 2 .5 2 .5 2 .5 2 .2 2 .4 2 .5 2 .1 2 .5 2 .4 2 .5 2..5 1 .9 1 .6 5 .2 1 .6 9 .0 7-88 2 .4 2 .5 2 .4 2 .5 2 .1 2 .5 2 .1 1 .9 2 .5 2 .2 2 .1 2.,0 1 .6 1 .4 2 .5 1 .2 4 .6 0 .4 8 -8 8 2 .4 2 .5 2 .5 2 .5 2 .0 2 .2 2 .1 1 .9 2 .2 2 .1 2 .0 1.,9 1 .6 1 .4 2 .5 1 .2 5 .5 0 .8 1 .5 1-87 2 -8 7 5-8 7 4 -8 7 5 -8 7 6 -8 7 7-87 8 -8 7 9 -8 7 10-8 7 1 1-87 12-8 7 1 -88 2 -8 8 5 -8 8 4 -8 8 5 -8 8 6 -8 8 7 -8 8 1 1 4 ,1 0 5 6 .6 1 1 4 ,7 1 5 1 1 4 ,1 9 5 1 1 5 ,0 1 8 1 1 5 ,0 5 9 1 1 5 ,1 8 0 INITIAL MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 2 , 1988 PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 1-87 2 -8 7 5-8 7 4 -8 7 5 -8 7 6 -8 7 7-8 7 8 -8 7 INITIAL MONTH OF PERSONS 9 -8 7 10-8 7 1 1 -8 7 12-8 7 2 -8 7 2 .7 5-8 7 2 .8 2 .9 4 -8 7 5 .5 5 .6 4 .5 5 -8 7 5 .1 5 .5 5 .4 2 .6 6 -8 7 5 .1 5 .2 5 .5 2 .8 5 .0 7-8 7 5 .5 5 .4 5 .5 5 .2 5 .6 4 .2 8 -8 7 5 .2 5 .5 5 .4 5 .2 5 .4 5 .5 2 .9 9-8 7 5 .2 5 .2 5 .5 5 .1 5 .2 5 .5 2 .8 10-87 5 .4 5 .5 5 .6 5 .5 5 .7 5 .8 5 .7 4 .2 5 .6 11-87 5 .4 5 .5 5 .6 5 .5 5 .7 5 .8 5 .7 4 .0 4 .6 12-87 5 .5 5 .6 5 .6 5 .5 5 .7 5 .8 5 .7 5 .9 4 .5 5 .7 5 .8 1-88 5 .4 5 .5 5 .6 5 .5 5 .6 5 .7 5 .6 5 .8 4 .0 5 .5 5 .4 5 .1 2 -8 8 5 .6 5 .7 5 .7 5 .7 5 .8 5 .9 5 .9 4 .0 4 .5 4 .0 4 .1 4 .5 THOUSANDS 1-88 2 -8 8 5 -8 8 4 -8 8 5 -8 8 6 -8 8 7 -8 8 1 0 1 ,0 1 6 1 0 1 ,2 6 0 1 0 1 ,6 1 5 1 0 1 ,8 2 9 1 0 2 ,0 7 8 1 0 2 ,4 5 0 1 0 2 ,6 7 2 2 .8 1 0 2 ,9 0 6 1 0 5 ,5 7 1 5 .6 1 0 5 ,6 7 8 1 0 4 ,0 0 1 1 0 4 ,2 6 2 5 .5 1 0 4 ,7 2 9 5-8 8 5 .6 5 .7 5 .7 5 .7 5 .8 5 .9 5 .8 4 .0 4 .2 5 .9 5 .9 4 .0 4 .4 5 .4 4 -8 8 5 .5 5 .6 5 .7 5 .6 5 .7 5 .8 5 .7 5 .8 4 .0 5 .7 5 .8 5 .7 4 .0 5 .2 5 .0 5 -8 8 5 .5 5 .5 5 .6 5 .5 5 .6 5 .7 5 .6 5 .7 5 .8 5 .5 5 .5 5 .5 5 .6 2 .9 2 .7 2 .4 1 0 5 ,0 2 0 1 0 5 ,2 8 1 1 0 5 ,4 8 9 6 -8 8 5 .7 5 .7 5 .8 5 .7 5 .8 5 .9 5 .9 4 .0 4 .1 5 .9 4 .0 4 .0 4 .2 5 .9 4 .0 4 .5 6 .7 7 -8 8 5 .6 5 .6 5 .7 5 .6 5 .7 5 .8 5 .7 5 .8 5 .9 5 .7 5 .8 5 .7 5 .9 5 .5 5 .6 5 .8 4 .4 2 .5 8 -8 8 5 .5 5 .6 5 .6 5 .6 5 .6 5 .7 5 .6 5 .7 5 .8 5 .6 5 .6 5 .6 5 .7 5 .4 5 .4 5 .4 5 .8 2 .4 2 .5 1-87 2 -8 7 5-87 4 -8 7 5 -8 7 6 -8 7 7-8 7 8 -8 7 9 -8 7 1 0 -8 7 1 1 -8 7 1 2 -8 7 1-8 8 2 -8 8 5 -8 8 4 -8 8 5 -8 8 6 -8 8 7 -8 8 1 0 6 ,0 5 7 106 »257P 106 »476P INITIAL MONTH P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 2» 1988 2 EMPLOYMENT RATIO RAT I 0 SCALE MILLIONS OF PERSONS SEASONALLY MlLLIONS ADJ USTED OF SCALE PERSONS I 30 125 120 1 15 I 10 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 SOURCE: U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BEGINNING JANUARY I M 6 , TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE NEV PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT 8Y ABOUT 0.3%. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED; AUGUST PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS UNEMPLOYMENT SEASONALLY PERCENT RATE ADJUSTED PERCENT 12.0 I I I I .0 . 10. 10. 0 9. 9.0 8. 8.0 7. 7.0 6. 6.0 5. 5.0 4. 4.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTED: AUGUST PREPARED 3 BY FED ERA L RESERVE BANK OF S T. LO U IS CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS (Compounded Ann«al Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 1 9 8 2 -8 4 * 1 0 0 INITIAL 1MONTH 1-87 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 5 -8 7 6 -8 7 7 -8 7 8 -8 7 9 -8 7 1 0-87 1 1 -8 7 1 2-87 1-88 2 -8 8 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 5 -8 8 6 -8 8 7 -8 8 1 1 1 .8 2 -8 7 4 .4 3-8 7 4 .9 5 .5 4 -8 7 5 .1 5 .5 5 .5 5 -8 7 4 .9 5 .1 4 .9 4 .3 6-8 7 4 .6 4 .6 4 .3 3 .8 3 .2 7-87 4 .4 4 .3 4 .1 3 .6 3 .2 3 .2 8 -8 7 4 .5 4 .5 4 .3 4 .0 3 .9 4 .3 5 .4 9-87 4 .3 4 .3 4 .1 3 .9 3 .8 3 .9 4 .3 10-87 4 .3 4 .3 4 .2 3 .9 3 .9 4 .0 4 .3 3 .7 4 .3 11-87 4 .2 4 .2 4 .0 3 .8 3 .7 3 .8 4 .0 3 .5 3 .7 3 .2 1 1 2 .3 1 1 2 .8 1 1 3 .2 1 1 3 .5 1 1 3 .8 1 1 4 .3 1 1 4 .6 3 .2 1 1 5 .0 1 1 5 .3 12-87 4 .0 4 .0 3 .8 3 .6 3 .5 3 .6 3 .6 3 .2 3 .2 2 .6 2 .1 1-88 4 .0 4 .0 3 .9 3 .7 3 .6 3 .7 3 .7 3 .4 3 .4 3 .2 3 .2 1 1 5 .5 1 1 5 .9 4 .2 1 1 6 .1 2 -8 8 3 .9 3 .8 3 .7 3 .5 3 .4 3 .5 3 .5 3 .2 3 .2 2 .9 2 .8 3 .2 2 .1 3-88 4 .1 4 .0 3 .9 3 .8 3 .7 3 .8 3 .8 3 .6 3 .7 3 .6 3 .7 4 .2 4 .2 6 .4 4 -8 8 4 .1 4 .1 4 .0 3 .9 3 .9 3 .9 4 .0 3 .8 3 .9 3 .9 4 .0 4 .5 4 .6 5 .8 5 .3 5 -8 8 4 .1 4 .1 4 .0 3 .9 3 .9 3 .9 4 .0 3 .9 4 .0 3 .9 4 .0 4 .4 4 .5 5 .3 4 .7 4 .2 6-88 4 .1 4 .1 4 .0 3 .9 3 .9 4 .0 4 .0 3 .9 4 .0 3 .9 4 .0 4 .4 4 .4 5 .0 4 .5 4 .2 1 1 6 .7 1 1 7 .2 1 1 7 .6 1 1 8 .0 4 .2 7-88 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4 .0 4 .0 4 .1 4 .1 4 .0 4 .1 4 .1 4 .2 4 .5 4 .5 5 .0 4 .7 4 .5 4 .7 5 .2 8 -8 8 4 .3 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4 .1 4 .1 4 .2 4 .1 4 .2 4 .2 4 .3 4 .6 4 .6 5 .1 4 .8 4 .7 4 .8 5 .2 5 .2 1-87 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 5 -8 7 6 -8 7 7-8 7 8 -8 7 9 -8 7 1 0 -8 7 1 1 -8 7 12-87 1 -88 2 -8 8 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 5 -8 8 6 -8 8 7 -8 8 1 1 8 .5 1 1 9 .0 INITIAL MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 21» 1988 PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FINISHED GOODS* (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH INITIAL MONTH 1-87 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 5 -8 7 6 -8 7 7-8 7 8 -8 7 1982 * 100 9 -8 7 1 0 -8 7 1 1 -8 7 1 2 -8 7 1-88 2 -8 8 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 5 -8 8 6 -8 8 7-8 8 1 0 4 .1 2 -8 7 2 .3 3-8 7 3 .5 4 .7 4 -8 7 4 .7 5 .9 7 .1 5 -8 7 4 .1 4 .7 4 .7 2 .3 6-87 3 .5 3 .8 3 .5 1 .7 1 .1 7-87 3 .5 3 .7 3 .5 2 .3 2 .3 3 .5 8 -8 7 3 .5 3 .7 3 .5 2 .6 2 .7 3 .5 3 .5 9-87 3 .6 3 .8 3 .7 3 .0 3 .2 3 .8 4 .0 4 .6 10-87 2 .8 2 .9 2 .6 1 .9 1 .8 2 .0 1 .5 0 .6 -3 .3 11-87 2 .7 2 .7 2 .5 1 .8 1 .7 1 .8 1 .4 0 .8 -1 .1 1 .1 1 0 4 .5 1 0 5 .1 1 0 5 .3 1 0 5 .4 1 0 5 .7 1 0 6 .0 1 0 6 .4 1 0 6 .1 1 0 6 .2 12-87 2 .1 2 .1 1 .8 1 .1 1 .0 1 .0 0 .5 - 0 .3 - 1 .9 - 1 .1 - 3 .3 1-88 2 .2 2 .2 2 .0 1 .4 1 .3 1 .3 0 .9 0 .5 - 0 .6 0 .4 0 .0 3 .5 2 -8 8 1 .9 1 .8 1 .6 1 .0 0 .9 0 .9 0 .5 0 .0 - 0 .9 - 0 .3 - 0 .8 0 .6 -2 .2 3-8 8 2 .2 2 .2 2 .0 1 .6 1 .5 1 .5 1 .3 1 .0 0 .4 1 .1 1 .1 2 .7 2 .3 7 .0 4 -8 8 2 .4 2 .4 2 .2 1 .8 1 .8 1 .8 1 .6 1 .4 1 .0 1 .7 1 .8 3 .1 3 .0 5 .8 5 -8 8 2 .5 2 .5 2 .4 2 .0 2 .0 2 .1 1 .9 1 .8 1 .4 2 .1 2 .3 3 .4 3 .4 5 .4 4 .6 4 .6 6-8 8 2 .6 2 .7 2 .5 2 .2 2 .2 2 .3 2 .2 2 .0 1 .8 2 .4 2 .6 3 .6 3 .7 5 .2 4 .6 4 .6 4 .6 7-8 8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .7 2 .4 2 .4 2 .5 2 .5 2 .4 2 .1 2 .8 3 .0 3 .9 4 .0 5 .3 4 .9 4 .9 5 .1 5 .7 8 -8 8 3 .0 3 .1 3 .0 2 .7 2 .7 2 .8 2 .8 2 .7 2 .6 3 .2 3 .4 4 .3 4 .4 5 .5 5 .3 5 .4 5 .7 6 .3 6 .9 1-8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 5 -8 7 6 -8 7 7 -8 7 8 -8 7 9 -8 7 10 -8 7 1 1 -8 7 1 2 -8 7 1 -88 2 -8 8 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 5 -8 8 6 -8 8 7 -8 8 1 0 5 .9 1 0 6 .2 1 0 6 .0 1 0 6 .6 4 .6 1 0 7 .0 1 0 7 .4 1 0 7 .8 1 0 8 .3 1 0 8 .9 INITIAL MONTH ■DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO REVISED TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 9 » 1988 4 RATIO PRICES SCALE 1982-100 1980 1 9 81 1982 1983 1984 C O N SU M ER P R IC E S D A TA AR E ON A 1 9 8 2 - 8 4 - 1 0 0 BA SE C P I - U D A TA B E G IN N IN G 1 0 8 3 IN C O R P O R A T E A R E N T A L PERCENTAG ES LA TES T RATIO ARE AN NUA L D A TA P L O T T E D . RA TES O f CH ANC E 1985 E Q U IV A L E N C E FO R P E R IO D S PRODUCER P E R C E N T A G E S ARE AN N U A L R A T E S DATA P L O T T E D t 1987 1988 FOR H O U E O V N E R S H IP COSTS. AU G U S T SCALE LATEST 1986 M EA SU R E IN D IC A T E D . PREPARED RATIO S CALE 1982-100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED Of BY F E D E R A L RESERVE PRICES CH ANG E FO R P E R IO D S BA NK O f ST. L O U IS ra tio scale I HO IC A T E D . A U G »S T PREPARED 5 BY F E D E R A L RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FINISHED CONSUMER FOODS* (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 2 -8 7 1982 * 100 INITIAL MONTH 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 5 -8 7 6 -8 7 7-8 7 8 -8 7 9 -8 7 1 0 -8 7 1 1 -8 7 1 2 -8 7 1-88 2 -8 8 3 -8 8 4 -8 8 5 -8 8 6 -8 8 7 -8 8 8 -8 8 1 0 8 .2 5-87 0 .0 4 -8 7 8 .0 1 6 .7 5 -8 7 1 0 .0 1 5 .5 1 4 .0 6 -8 7 7 .1 9 .6 6 .2 1 0 9 .6 1 1 0 .8 1 1 0 .7 - 1 .1 1 1 0 .5 7-8 7 4 .7 5 .9 2 .6 -2 .7 - 4 .5 8 -8 7 2 .4 2 .9 - 0 .5 - 4 .6 - 6 .5 -8 .4 9-8 7 5 .2 5 .7 1 .5 - 1 .6 -1 .8 -0 .5 7 .9 10-87 2 .4 2 .7 0 .5 -1 .9 - 2 .2 -1 .4 2 .2 11-87 2 .2 2 .5 0 .6 - 1 .4 - 1 .5 - 0 .8 1 .8 - 1 .1 12-87 0 .4 0 .5 -1 .4 - 5 .4 - 5 .8 - 5 .7 -2 .4 - 5 .7 1-88 2 .5 2 .6 1.1 -0 .4 - 0 .5 0 .4 2 .2 0 .8 2 .2 2 .8 1 0 9 .5 1 1 0 ,2 1 0 9 .9 - 5 .2 1 1 0 .0 1 .1 1 0 8 .6 - 6 .9 -1 4 .2 1 1 0 .5 2 5 .1 2 -8 8 1 .0 1.1 -0 .5 - 1 .8 -1 .9 - 1 .5 -0 .4 -1 .9 -1 .6 -2 .5 5 -88 1 .7 1 .8 0 .6 - 0 .6 - 0 .6 - 0 .1 1.1 0 .0 0 .7 0 .5 6 .0 1 0 9 .5 5 .9 - 1 2 . 5 -1 .6 1 1 0 .2 1 0 .3 4 -8 8 1 .9 2 .0 0 .9 - 0 .2 - 0 .1 0 .4 1 .5 0 .6 1 .5 1 .5 5 .6 0 .4 7 .4 4 .4 5 -8 8 2 .4 2 .6 1 .6 0 .6 0 .8 1 .5 2 .4 1 .8 2 .5 2 .7 6 .5 2 .7 8 .3 7 .3 1 0 .2 1 1 0 .6 1 1 1 .5 6-8 8 5 .1 5 .5 2 .4 1 .6 1 .8 2 .4 5 .5 5 .0 5 .8 4 .2 7 .7 4 .8 9 .6 9 .4 1 1 .9 1 5 .7 7-88 5 .2 5 .4 2 .6 1 .9 2 .1 2 .6 5 .7 5 .3 4 .0 4 .4 7 .4 4 .9 8 .8 8 .4 9 .7 9 .5 5 .5 1 1 2 .7 8 -8 8 5 .4 5 .6 2 .8 2 .1 2 .5 2 .8 5 .8 5 .5 4 .2 4 .5 7 .1 5 .0 8 .2 7 .8 8 .6 8 .1 5 .4 1 1 5 .2 5 .4 1 1 5 .7 9-8 8 - 1 0 0 . 0 - 1 0 0 . 0 - 1 0 0 . 0 - 1 0 0 . 0 - 1 0 0 .0 - 1 0 0 .0 - 1 0 0 .0 - 1 0 0 .0 - 1 0 0 . 0 - 1 0 0 . 0 - 1 0 0 . 0 - 1 0 0 . 0 - 1 0 0 . 0 - 1 0 0 . 0 - 1 0 0 . 0 - 1 0 0 . 0 - 1 0 0 . 0 - 1 0 0 . 0 - 1 0 0 . 0 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 5 -8 7 6 -8 7 7-8 7 8 -8 7 9 -8 7 10-87 11-87 12-8 7 1-88 2 -8 8 5 -8 8 4 -8 8 5 -8 8 6 -8 8 7 -8 8 0 .0 8 -8 8 INITIAL MONTH ■DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO REVISED TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 9» 1988 PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FINISHED GOODS, EXCLUDING FOODS* (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH INITIAL MONTH 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 7 .2 4 -8 7 5 .4 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 5 -8 7 6 -8 7 7 -8 7 8 -8 7 1982 * 100 9 -8 7 10-8 7 11-8 7 1 2 -8 7 1 -88 2 -8 8 5 -8 8 4 -8 8 5 -8 8 6 -8 8 1 0 5 .6 3 .2 1 .2 -1 .2 6 -8 7 2 .7 1 .2 0 .0 1 .2 7 -8 7 3 .5 2 .6 2 .5 4 .1 7 .2 8 -8 7 4 .1 5 .5 5 .5 5 .1 7 .2 7 .1 1 0 5 .5 1 0 5 .6 1 0 4 .2 1 0 4 .8 6 .5 5 .9 4 .7 5 .5 5 .8 2 .7 0 .6 -5 .4 11-87 2 .9 2 .5 2 .2 2 .7 5 .0 2 .0 0 .4 -1 .7 0 .0 12-87 2 .6 2 .1 1 .9 2 .5 2 .5 1 .6 0 .5 - 1 .1 0 .0 0 .0 1-88 2 .2 1 .7 1 .5 1 .9 2 .0 1 .2 0 .0 - 1 .1 - 0 .4 - 0 .6 - 1 .1 2 -8 8 2 .1 1 .7 1 .5 1 .8 1 .9 1 .2 0 .2 - 0 .7 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 1 .2 5-88 2 .3 1 .9 1 .8 2 .1 2 .2 1 .6 0 .8 0 .2 0 .9 1 .1 1 .5 2 .9 4 .7 4 -8 8 2 .6 2 .2 2 .1 2 .4 2 .6 2 .1 1 .4 1 .0 1 .7 2 .1 2 .6 3 .9 5 .5 5 .8 5 -8 8 2 .6 2 .5 2 .2 2 .5 2 .6 2 .2 1 .7 1 .5 2 .0 2 .5 2 .8 3 .8 4 .7 4 .6 5 .5 6 -8 8 2 .5 2 .2 2 .1 2 .4 2 .5 2 .1 1 .6 1 .5 1 .9 2 .1 2 .5 5 .2 5 .8 5 ,5 2 .5 7 -8 8 2 .7 2 .5 2 .4 2 .6 2 .8 2 .4 2 .0 1 .7 2 .5 2 .6 3 .0 5 .7 4 .2 4 .0 5 .4 5 .4 5 .8 8 -8 8 3 .0 2 .7 2 .7 2 .9 5 .1 2 .7 2 .4 2 .2 2 .8 5 .1 3 .5 4 .1 4 .6 4 .6 4*5 4 .6 6 .4 1 0 4 .9 1 0 4 .9 1 0 4 .9 1 0 4 .8 1 0 5 .5 1 0 6 .1 1 .1 2 7 -8 8 1 0 7 .5 o o o 6 -8 8 1 0 6 .7 7 .0 © o o o 5 -8 8 1 0 6 .2 2 2 4 -8 8 o © 2 5 -8 8 1 0 5 .8 o o 2 2 -8 8 o o 2 1 -8 8 1 0 4 .9 o o 9 -8 7 1 0 -8 7 1 1 -8 7 1 2 -8 7 2 \o © o 0 2 o o 1 o o 2 2 8 -8 7 1 0 5 .2 © o o o 7-8 7 2 © © 6 -8 7 2 2 5 -8 7 o o 4 -8 7 2 o o 5 -8 7 o o 0 1 5 .0 2 .5 ? 5 .7 2 .7 1 5 .7 3 .2 o © 4 .2 1 o 0 9 -8 7 10-87 2 -8 7 8 -8 8 1 0 5 .5 5 .5 5 -8 7 9 -8 8 7 -8 8 0 .0 8 -8 8 INITIAL MONTH ■DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO REVISED TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 9» 1988 6 INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION SCALE RATIO 1977-100 SEASONALLY SCALE 1977-100 I 45 ADJ UST ED 140 135 130 125 120 1 15 I 10 105 100 95 90 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: AUGUST PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (CompouDded AnnnaJ Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH INITIAL MONTH 1-87 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 5 -8 7 6 -8 7 7 -8 7 8—87 1977 * 100 9 -8 7 10-8 7 1 1 -8 7 1 2 -8 7 1 -8 8 2 -8 8 5 -8 8 4 -8 8 5 -8 8 6 -8 8 7 -8 8 1 27 .1 2 -8 7 8 .9 5 -8 7 5 .8 2 .9 4 -8 7 5 .9 1 .4 5 -8 7 4 .8 5 .5 5 .8 7 .8 6 -8 7 5 .6 4 .8 5 .4 8 .5 8 .8 6 .7 7 .7 1 0 .4 1 1 .8 1 4 .9 1 2 7 .4 1 2 7 .4 0 .0 1 2 8 .2 1 29.1 1 5 0 .6 7 -8 7 7 .1 8 -8 7 6 .9 6 .6 7 .5 9 .2 9 .7 1 0 .2 5 .7 9—87 5 .8 5 .5 5 .7 6 .9 6 .7 6 .0 1 .9 - 1 .8 1 0 -87 6 .7 6 .4 7 .0 8 .2 8 .2 8 .1 5 .9 6 .1 1 4 .6 1 1 -87 6 .7 6 .4 6 .9 7 .9 8 .0 7 .8 6 .1 6 .2 1 0 .5 6 .5 1 2 -87 6 .7 6 .5 6 .9 7 .7 7 .7 7 .6 6 .2 6 .5 9 .2 6 .5 6 .5 1 -8 8 6 .5 6 .5 6 .6 7 .4 7 .5 7 .1 5 .9 6 .0 8 .0 5 .9 5 .5 4 .6 2 -8 8 6 .0 5 .7 6 .0 6 .6 6 .5 6 .2 5 .0 4 .9 6 .5 4 .4 5 .7 2 .5 1 5 1 .2 1 5 1 .0 1 5 2 .5 1 5 5 .2 1 5 5 .9 1 5 4 .4 1 5 4 .4 0 .0 5 -8 8 5 .7 5 .5 5 .7 6 .5 6 .1 5 .8 4 .7 4 .6 5 .7 4 .0 5 .4 2 .4 1 .5 2 .7 4 -8 8 5 .8 5 .6 5 .8 6 .5 6 .1 5 .9 4 .9 4 .8 5 .8 4 .4 4 .0 5 .4 5 .0 4 .5 6 .4 5 -8 8 5 .8 5 .6 5 .8 6 .5 6 .2 5 .9 5 .1 5 .9 4 .7 4 .4 4 .0 5 .8 5 .2 6 .4 6 .4 6—88 5 .7 5 .5 5 .7 6 .1 6 .0 5 .7 5 .6 4 .6 4 .5 5 .9 5 .8 4 .8 5 .5 5 .0 5 .6 7 -8 8 6 .1 5 .9 6 .1 6 .5 6 .5 5 .2 5 .5 6 .4 7 .5 7 .6 8 .2 1 5 .0 8 -8 8 5 .9 5 .7 5 .9 6 .5 6 .2 6 .0 5 .4 5 .5 4 .9 4 .9 5 .7 6 .5 6 .5 6 .5 7 .7 2 .6 1 -87 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 5 -8 7 6 -8 7 7 -8 7 8 -8 7 9 -8 7 10-8 7 1 1-87 12-8 7 1 -88 2 -8 8 5 -8 8 4—8 8 5 -8 8 6 -8 8 7 -8 8 6 .5 4 .9 5 .6 5 .0 4 .9 5 .6 6 .4 6 .0 5 .5 5 .5 5 .2 5 .0 1 5 4 .7 1 5 5 .4 1 5 6 .1 1 5 6 .5 1 5 7 .9P 1 5 8 .2P INITIAL MONTH P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 7 PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS MONTHLY OF DOLLARS TOTALS INCOME AT SEASONALLY ANNUAL RATIO RATES TRILLIONS ADJUSTED OF SCALE DOLLARS 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2. 2.6 2. 2.4 . 2.2 2 2.0 1. 8 SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: AUGUST PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS PERSONAL INCOME (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 1-87 2 -8 7 1 4 .8 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 5 -8 7 6-8 7 7 -8 7 8 -8 7 INITIAL MONTH ANNUAL RATES 9 -8 7 1 0 -8 7 1 1 -8 7 1 2 -8 7 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 -8 8 2 -8 8 5 -8 8 4 -8 8 5 -8 8 6 -8 8 7 -8 8 5 ,6 8 5 .5 5-8 7 1 0 .7 6 .7 4 -8 7 9 .5 7 .0 7 .2 5 -8 7 8 .0 5 .9 5 .5 5 .7 6 -8 7 7 .1 5 .5 4 .8 5 .6 7-8 7 7 .7 6 .5 6 .2 5 .9 7 .0 1 0 .6 8 -8 7 7 .8 6 .6 6 .6 6 .5 7 .4 9 .4 5 ,7 0 5 .4 5 ,7 2 5 .0 5 ,7 5 6 .5 5 ,7 4 7 .1 5 .5 5 ,7 7 8 .6 5 ,8 0 5 .7 8 .5 5 ,8 2 0 .8 9-8 7 7 .5 6 .5 6 .4 6 .5 6 .9 8 .1 6 .9 5 .5 1 0-87 9 .5 8 .8 9 .1 9 .5 1 0 .6 1 2 .5 1 5 .2 1 5 .7 2 6 .8 1 1-87 8 .1 7 .5 7 .4 7 .4 8 .1 9 .0 8 .6 8 .7 1 0 .4 12-87 9 .0 8 .4 8 .6 8 .7 9 .5 1 0 .5 1 0 .5 11 .1 1 5 .0 6 .6 1 8 .5 1-88 7 .7 7 .1 7 .1 7 .1 7 ,5 8 .1 7 .7 7 .6 8 .1 2 .5 6 .0 5 ,8 9 7 .2 - 4 .0 5 ,8 8 4 .1 5 ,9 5 9 .0 - 5 .1 5 ,9 2 1 .8 2 -8 8 7 .7 7 .1 7 .2 7 .2 7 .6 8 .1 7 .7 7 .7 8 .1 5 .9 6 ,6 1 .2 7 .9 5-8 8 8 .1 7 .6 7 .6 7 .7 8 .1 8 .6 8 .5 8 .4 8 .8 5 .5 8 ,1 4 .8 1 0 .2 1 2 .6 4 -8 8 7 .8 7 .5 7 .4 7 .4 7 .8 8 .2 7 .9 7 .9 8 .2 5 .4 7 ,4 4 ,8 8 .5 8 .5 4 .6 5 -8 8 7 .7 7 .5 7 .5 7 .5 7 .6 8 .0 7 .8 7 .7 8 .0 5 .5 7 ,2 5 .1 7 .8 7 .8 5 .5 6 .5 6-8 8 7 .7 7 .5 7 .5 7 .5 7 .6 7 .9 7 .7 7 .7 7 .9 5 .7 7 .2 5 .4 7 .7 7 .7 6 .1 6 .8 7 .2 7 .9 6 .0 7 .5 5 .8 7 .8 7 .7 6 .6 7 .2 7 .7 8 .1 7 .4 5 .6 6 .7 5 .4 6 .9 6 .8 5 .7 5 .9 5 .8 5 .1 2 .1 9 -8 7 1 0 -8 7 11 -8 7 1 2 -8 7 1 -8 8 2 -8 8 5 -8 8 4 -8 8 5 -8 8 6 -8 8 7 -8 8 7-88 7 .7 7 .5 7 .4 7 .4 7 .6 8 .0 7 .7 7 .7 8 -8 8 7 .4 7 .0 7 .0 7 .0 7 .5 7 .5 7 .5 7 .2 1-87 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 5 -8 7 6 -8 7 7 -8 7 8 -8 7 5 ,9 4 6 .7 5 ,9 8 5 .9 4 ,0 0 1 .0 4 ,0 2 1 .4 4 ,0 4 4 . 9 4 ,0 7 1 .5 4 , 0 7 8 .5P INITIAL MONTH P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 21, 1988 8 RETAIL RATIO SALES SCALE BILLIONS OF 1980 RATIO DOLLARS 1981 SEASONALLY 1982 1983 BILLIONS ADJUSTED 1984 1985 1986 1987 OF SCALE DOLLARS 1988 SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATEO. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: JULY, AUGUST ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS RETAIL SALES (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 1-87 2 -8 7 8 2 .8 5 -8 7 5 7 .8 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 5 -8 7 6 -8 7 7 -8 7 8 -8 7 INITIAL MONTH DOLLARS 9 -8 7 1 0 -8 7 11-87 1 2 -8 7 MILLIONS OF 1 -88 2 -8 8 5 -8 8 4 -8 8 5 -8 8 6 -8 8 7 -8 8 125 ► 292 5 .8 125 ► 680 4 -8 7 2 7 .6 6 .6 9 .4 5 -8 7 2 0 .6 5 .0 5 .5 6 -8 7 1 9 .9 7 .9 9 .5 9 .5 1 7 .2 7 -8 7 1 7 .6 7 .6 8 .6 8 .5 1 1 .7 6 .5 8 -8 7 1 9 .5 11 .1 1 2 .6 1 5 .4 1 7 .5 1 7 .6 9 -8 7 1 5 .S 6 .4 6 .8 6 .5 7 .4 4 .4 5 .5 - 1 7 .9 1 0 -87 1 1 .0 4 .5 4 .4 5 .6 5 .9 0 .8 - 1 . 0 - 1 5 .6 1 1 -87 1 0 .5 4 .5 4 .4 5 .7 4 .0 1 .5 0 .5 - 8 .0 - 2 .6 4 .2 1 2 -87 1 0 .6 5 .2 5 .4 4 .9 5 .5 5 .4 2 .8 - 5 .0 2 .5 8 .9 1 5 .7 124 ► 609 124,► 797 1 .8 126 ► 461 127 ►122 5 0 .0 129 ► 950 127 ► 815 -9 .1 126 ► 808 127 »248 128 .615 1 -88 9 .8 4 .9 5 .0 4 .5 4 .8 5 .1 2 .6 - 2 .1 2 .5 6 .5 7 .4 1 .4 2 -8 8 1 0 .1 5 .5 5 .7 5 .5 5 .7 4 .4 4 .1 0 .5 4 .4 8 .0 9 .5 7 .2 1 5 .4 128 ,7 6 9 1 0 .9 6 .7 6 .9 6 .7 7 .2 6 .2 6 .1 5 .1 7 .1 1 0 .6 1 2 .5 1 1 .8 1 7 .4 21..6 9 .8 5 .8 6 .0 5 .7 6 .1 5 .0 4 .8 2 .1 5 .5 7 .9 8 .6 7 .4 9 .5 7..6 -4 .8 5 -8 8 9 .8 6 .1 6 .5 6 .1 6 .4 5 .5 5 .4 5 .0 5 .9 9 .0 8 .1 9 .8 8 ..6 2 .6 1 0 .7 5 .6 5 .4 6 .1 8 .2 8 .7 7 .9 9 .5 8 ,. 5 4 .2 9 .0 7 .5 4 .4 1 .7 CM 5 -8 8 4—88 00 150 ►121 152 ,2 5 9 151 ,717 152 .855 6 -8 8 9 .7 6 .2 6 .4 6 .2 6 .5 5 .7 7-8 8 9 .2 5 .9 6 .1 5 .9 6 .2 5 .5 5 .5 5 .5 5 .6 7 .4 7 .8 7 .0 8 .0 6..9 5 .5 6 .5 8 -8 8 8 .5 5 .4 5 .5 5 .5 5 .5 4 .7 4 .6 2 .7 4 .8 6 .5 6 .6 5 .7 6 .5 5,.2 2 .2 4 .0 1 .9 - 0 .7 -2 .9 1-87 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 5 -8 7 6 -8 7 7 -8 7 8 -8 7 9 -8 7 1 0 -8 7 11-87 1 2 -8 7 1-8 8 2 -8 8 5 -8 8 4 -8 8 5 -8 8 6 -8 8 7 -8 8 155 .617 155 »4 70E INITIAL MONTH P - PRELIMINARY E - ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 15, 1986 9 CL © o 00 155 HOURLY COMPENSATION, BUSINESS SECTOR (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL QUARTER 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-84 2 -8 4 5 -8 4 4 -8 4 1-8 5 2 -8 5 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -8 6 1977«100 2 -8 6 5 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 1 6 5 .6 4 -8 5 5 .6 1-84 5 .5 5 .5 2 -8 4 4 .6 4 .1 1 6 5 .8 1 6 6 .9 2 .7 1 6 8 .7 5 -8 4 4 .5 4 .2 5 .5 4 .4 4 -8 4 4 .4 4 .1 5 .6 4 .1 5 .8 1-85 4 .5 4 .5 4 .0 4 .5 4 .6 5 .5 2 -8 5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .0 4 .4 4 .4 4 .6 4 .0 1 7 0 .5 1 7 2 .5 1 7 4 .2 1 7 6 .4 5 -8 5 4 .5 4 .4 4 .2 4 .5 4 .6 4 .8 4 .6 5 .1 4 -8 5 4 .7 4 .5 4 .4 4 .7 4 .8 5 .0 4 .9 5 .4 5 .6 1-86 4 .6 4 .4 4 .5 4 .5 4 .6 4 .7 4 .6 4 .8 4 .6 5 .6 2 -8 6 4 .5 4 .4 4 .2 4 .4 4 .4 4 .5 4 .4 4 .5 4 .5 5 .6 1 7 8 .8 1 8 0 .4 1 8 2 .0 5 .6 1 8 4 .0 5 -8 6 4 .5 4 .4 4 .5 4 .4 4 .4 4 .5 4 .4 4 .5 4 .5 5 .9 4 .0 4 .5 4 -8 6 4 .5 4 .4 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .6 4 .5 4 .5 4 .4 4 .1 4 .5 4 .7 4 .9 1 8 6 .2 1 8 7 .5 1-87 4 .5 4 .5 4 .1 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 5 .8 5 .8 5 .9 5 .6 2 .4 2 -8 7 4 .5 4 .2 4 .1 4 .2 4 .2 4 .5 4 .1 4 .2 4 .0 5 .8 5 .8 5 .8 5 .6 5 .0 5 .7 5 -8 7 4 .5 4 .2 4 .1 4 .5 4 .2 4 .5 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 5 .9 5 .9 4 .0 5 .9 5 .5 4 .1 1 8 9 .0 4 .5 1 9 1 .1 1 9 4 .0 4 -8 7 4 .4 4 .4 4 .5 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 4 .5 4 .2 4 .2 4 .5 4 .5 4 .2 4 .8 5 .4 6 .2 1 -88 4 .4 4 .5 4 .2 4 .4 4 .5 4 .4 4 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .1 4 .2 4 .5 4 .2 4 .1 4 .5 4 .8 5 .0 5 .8 2 -8 8 4 .4 4 .5 4 .5 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 4 .5 4 .4 4 .5 4 .2 4 .2 4 .5 4 .5 4 .2 4 .5 4 .8 4 .8 4 .2 4 .6 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-84 2 -8 4 5—84 4 -8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -8 6 2 -8 6 5 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -87 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 1 9 5 .8 1 9 8 .OP INITIAL QUARTER P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 1» 1988 OUTPUT PER HOUR OF ALL PERSONS, BUSINESS SECTOR (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL QUARTER 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-84 2 -8 4 5-8 4 4 -8 4 4 -8 5 2 .7 1-84 4 .1 5 .5 2 -8 4 5 .4 5 .7 1 .9 5 -8 4 2 .4 2 .5 0 .8 - 0 .4 4 -8 4 2 .2 2 .1 1 .0 0 .6 1 .5 1-85 2 .4 2 .5 1 .5 1 .4 2 .5 5 .1 1 -85 2 -8 5 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -86 1 9 7 7 -1 0 0 2 -8 6 5 -8 6 4 -8 6 1-87 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 1 0 5 .7 1 0 5 .1 1 0 5 .6 1 0 5 .5 1 0 5 .9 1 0 6 .7 2 -8 5 2 .5 2 .4 1 .8 1 .8 2 .5 5 .0 5 .0 5 -8 5 2 .5 2 .5 2 .0 2 .0 2 .7 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 4 -8 5 2 .5 2 .5 1 .8 1 .8 2 .5 2 .5 2 .5 1 .9 0 .7 1 -8 6 2 .9 2 .9 2 .5 2 .6 5 .1 5 .5 5 .6 5 .7 4 .1 7 .6 2 -8 6 2 .6 2 .5 2 .2 2 .2 2 .6 2 .8 2 .8 2 .7 2 .6 5 .5 - 0 .4 5 -8 6 2 .2 2 .2 1 .8 1 .8 2 .1 2 .2 2 .1 1 .9 1 .6 1 .8 - 0 .9 - 1 .4 4 -8 6 2 .0 1 .9 1 .6 1 .6 1 .8 1 .8 1 .6 1 .4 1 .1 1 .2 - 0 .8 - 1 .1 - 0 .7 1-8 7 1 .9 1 .8 1 .5 1 .5 1 .6 1 .7 1 .5 1 .5 1 .0 1 .0 - 0 .5 -0 .6 - 0 .2 0 .4 2 -8 7 1 .9 1 .9 1 .6 1 .6 1 .7 1 .8 1 .6 1 .4 1 .2 1 .5 0 .1 0 .2 0 .7 1 .5 2 .6 5 -8 7 2 .0 2 .0 1 .8 1 .7 1 .9 2 .0 1 .8 1 .7 1 .6 1 .7 0 .7 0 .9 1 .5 2 .5 5 .5 4 .0 4 -8 7 1 .9 1 .9 1 .7 1 .6 1 .8 1 .8 1 .7 1 .6 1 .4 1 .5 0 .7 0 .8 1 .5 1 .8 2 .5 2 .2 0 .4 1-88 2 .0 2 .0 1 .8 1 .8 1 .9 2 .0 1 .9 1 .8 1 .6 1 .7 1 .0 1 .2 1 .7 2 .2 2 .6 2 .7 2 .0 5 .6 2 -8 8 1 .8 1 .7 1 .5 1 .5 1 .6 1 .6 1 .5 1 .4 1 .5 1 .5 0 .6 0 .8 1 .1 1 .4 1 .6 1 .4 0 .5 0 .5 - 2 .5 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-84 2 -8 4 5 -8 4 4 -8 4 1-8 5 2 -8 5 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -8 6 2 -8 6 5 -8 6 4 -8 6 1-8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 1 0 7 .5 1 0 8 .5 1 0 8 .5 1 1 0 .5 1 1 0 .4 1 1 0 .0 1 0 9 .8 1 0 9 .9 1 1 0 .6 1 1 1 .7 1 1 1 .8 1 1 2 .8 1 1 2 .1 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 1, 1988 10 PRODUCTIVITY, COMPENSATION, AND LABOR COSTS RATIO SCALE RATIO 1977-100 1980 19 81 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 S O UR C E: PERCE NTAGE S LA T ES T ARE AN NU A L DATA P LO TTE Dt R A T E S OF CHA*6£ FOR P E R I O D S SCALE 1977-100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1987 U.S. 1988 DE PAR TMENT OF LA B OR ST. LOUIS IN D IC A T E D . 2 N D Q U A RT E R PREPARED IY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF UNIT LABOR COSTS, BUSINESS SECTOR (Compounded Annual Rales of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL QUARTER 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 1-84 2 -8 4 3 -8 4 4 -8 4 4 -8 3 2 .6 1-84 1 .4 0 .3 2 -8 4 1.1 0 .4 0 .5 3 -8 4 2 .0 1 .9 2 .7 4 .9 4 -8 4 2 .1 2 .0 2 .5 3 .6 2 .3 1-85 2 .1 2 .0 2 .4 3 .0 2 .1 2 .0 2 -8 5 1 .9 1 .8 2 .1 2 .5 1 .8 1 .5 1-85 2 -8 5 3 -8 5 4-85 1-86 1977«100 2 -8 6 3-8 6 4 -8 6 1-8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 1 5 7 .7 1 5 7 .8 1 5 8 .0 1 5 9 .9 1 6 0 .8 1 6 1 .6 1 .0 1 6 2 .0 3 -8 5 2 .0 1 .9 2 .2 2 .5 1 .9 1 .8 1 .7 2 .5 4 -8 5 2 .3 2 .2 2 .5 2 .8 2 .4 2 .5 2 .6 3 .5 4 .5 1-86 1 .7 1 .6 1 .7 1 .9 1 .4 1 .2 1 .1 1 .1 0 .4 1 6 3 .0 1 6 4 .8 - 3 .6 1 6 3 .3 2 -8 6 1 .9 1 .8 2 .0 2 .2 1 .8 1 .7 1 .6 1 .8 1 .6 0 .1 4 .0 3 -8 6 2 .2 2 .2 2 .4 2 .6 2 .3 2 .3 2 .3 2 .6 2 .6 2 .0 5 .0 6 .0 4 -8 6 2 .5 2 .5 2 .7 2 .9 2 .7 2 .7 2 .8 3 .1 3 .2 2 .9 5 .2 5 .8 5 .6 1 -87 2 .4 2 .4 2 .6 2 .8 2 .6 2 .6 2 .7 3 .0 3 .0 2 .8 4 .4 4 .6 3 .9 2 .1 2 -8 7 2 .3 2 .3 2 .5 2 .6 2 .4 2 .4 2 .5 2 .7 2 .7 2 .4 3 .7 3 .6 2 .8 1 .4 1 6 4 .9 1 6 7 .3 1 6 9 .6 1 7 0 .5 0 .7 1 7 0 .8 ' 3 -8 7 2 .2 2 .2 2 .3 2 .5 2 .3 2 .3 2 .3 2 .5 2 .5 2 .2 3 .2 3 .0 2 .3 1 .2 0 .7 0 .7 4 -8 7 2 .4 2 .4 2 .6 2 .7 2 .5 2 .6 2 .6 2 .8 2 .8 2 .6 3 .5 3 .4 3 .0 2 .3 2 .4 3 .2 5 .7 1-88 2 .3 2 .3 2 .4 2 .5 2 .4 2 .4 2 .4 2 .5 2 .5 2 .3 3 .1 2 .9 2 .5 1 .8 1 .8 2 .1 2 .8 0 .0 2 -8 8 2 .6 2 .6 2 .7 2 .8 2 .7 2 .7 2 .8 2 .9 3 .0 2 .8 3 .6 3 .5 3 .2 2 .8 2 .9 3 .5 4 .4 3 .7 7 .6 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 1-84 2 -8 4 3 -8 4 4 -8 4 1-8 5 2 -8 5 3 -8 5 4 -85 1-86 2 -8 6 3 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1-8 8 1 7 1 .1 1 7 3 .5 1 7 3 .5 1 7 6 .7 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 1, 1988 11 GROSS NATIONAL PRODÜCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 5—8 3 4 -8 3 1-84 2 -8 4 3 -8 4 4 -8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 3-85 4 -8 5 1 -86 2 -8 6 3 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 4 -8 3 1 2 .4 1 -8 4 1 5 .9 1 5 .4 2 -8 4 1 2 .2 1 2 .1 8 .9 3 -8 4 1 0 .6 1 0 .0 7 .4 5 .8 4 -8 4 9 .4 8 .6 6 .5 5 .5 4 .7 1-85 9 .1 8 .5 6 .8 6 .1 6 .5 7 .9 2 -8 5 8 .6 8 .0 6 .6 6 .0 6 .0 6 .7 5 .6 5 -8 5 8 .4 7 .8 6 .6 6 .2 6 .5 6 .8 6 .5 7 .0 4 -8 5 8 .2 7 .6 6 .6 6 .2 6 .5 6 .6 6 .2 6 .6 6 .2 1 -8 6 8 .1 7 .6 6 .7 6 .5 6 .4 6 .8 6 .5 6 .8 6 .7 7 .2 2 -8 6 7 .6 7 .1 6 .2 5 .9 5 .9 6 .1 5 .7 5 .7 5 .5 4 .9 2 .6 5 -8 6 7 .4 7 .0 6 .2 5 .9 5 .9 6 .0 5 .7 5 .8 5 .5 5 .2 4 .5 5 .9 4 -8 6 7 .1 6 .7 5 .9 5 .6 5 .6 5 .7 5 .4 5 .4 5 .1 4 .8 4 .0 4 .7 5 .4 1 -87 7 .2 6 .8 6 .1 5 .9 5 .9 6 .0 5 .8 5 .8 5 .6 5 .5 5 .1 5 .9 5 .9 8 .4 2 -8 7 7 .5 6 .9 6 .5 6 .1 6 .1 6 .5 6 .1 6 .2 6 .0 6 .0 5 .8 6 .6 6 .8 8 .5 8 .7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -88 5 ,5 4 5 .8 5 ,6 7 4 .9 5 ,7 5 4 .2 5 ,8 0 7 .9 5 ,8 5 1 .8 3 ,9 2 5 .6 3 ,9 7 9 .0 4 ,0 4 7 .0 4 ,1 0 7 .9 4 ,1 8 0 .4 4 ,2 0 7 .6 4 ,2 6 8 .4 4 ,3 0 4 .6 4 ,3 9 1 .8 4 ,4 8 4 .2 5 -8 7 7 .5 7 .0 6 .4 6 .2 6 .5 6 .4 6 .2 6 .5 6 .2 6 .5 6 .1 6 .8 7 .0 8 .2 8 .2 7 .7 4 -8 7 7 .4 7 .1 6 .6 6 .4 6 .4 6 .6 6 .5 6 .5 6 .5 6 .5 6 .4 7 .1 7 .5 8 .5 8 .5 8 .1 8 .6 4 ,5 6 8 .0 1 -8 8 7 .5 7 .0 6 .5 6 .5 6 .4 6 .5 6 .4 6 .4 6 .4 6 .4 6 .5 6 .8 7 .0 7 .7 7 .6 7 .2 7 .0 5 .4 2 -8 8 7 .4 7 .1 6 .6 6 .5 6 .5 6 .6 6 .5 6 .6 6 .6 6 .6 6 .6 7 .1 7 .2 7 .9 7 .8 7 .6 7 .5 7 .0 8 .7 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-84 2 -8 4 5 -8 4 4—84 1-85 2 -8 5 5-85 4 -8 5 1 -86 2 -8 6 5 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 4 ,6 6 2 .8 4 ,7 2 4 .5 4 ,8 2 3 .8 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 2 0 , 1988 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-84 2 -8 4 5 -8 4 4 -8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 5-85 4 -8 5 1-86 2 -8 6 4 -8 3 7 .5 1 -8 4 9 .0 1 0 .7 2 -8 4 7 .8 8 .1 5 .5 5 -8 4 6 .5 6 .2 4 .0 2 .6 4 -8 4 5 .5 5 .1 5 .2 2 .1 1 .7 1 -8 5 5 .4 5 .0 5 .6 5 .0 5 .5 4 .9 2 -8 5 5 .0 4 .6 5 .4 2 .9 5 .0 5 .7 2 .4 5 -8 5 4 .9 4 .5 3 .5 5 .1 5 .5 5 .8 3 .5 4 .1 4 -8 5 4 .6 4 .5 3 .4 5 .1 5 .2 5 .6 5 .2 5 .5 5 .0 5 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -88 5 ,5 6 5 .1 5 ,4 5 1 .7 5 ,4 9 8 .0 5 ,5 2 0 .6 5 ,5 3 5 .2 3 ,5 7 7 .5 3 ,5 9 9 .2 3 ,6 5 5 .8 5 ,6 6 2 .4 1 -86 4 .8 4 .5 3 .8 5 .6 5 .7 4 .1 4 .0 4 .5 4 .6 6 .4 2—8 6 4 .3 4 .0 3 .5 5 .0 5 .1 5 .5 5 .0 5 .1 2 .8 2 .7 - 0 .8 5 ,7 1 1 .6 5 -8 6 4 .0 5 .7 5 .1 2 .8 2 .8 5 .0 2 .7 2 .7 2 .4 2 .2 0 .1 1 .0 5 ,7 2 1 .5 4 -8 6 3 .8 5 .5 2 .9 2 .7 2 .7 2 .8 2 .5 2 .5 2 .2 2 .0 0 .6 1 .2 1 -87 5 .9 5 .6 5 .0 2 .8 2 .8 5 .0 2 .7 2 .8 2 .6 2 .5 1 .5 2 .5 2 -8 7 5 .9 5 .7 5 .2 5 .0 5 .0 3 .2 5 .0 5 .1 2 .9 2 .9 2 .2 5 .0 5 -8 7 4 .0 5 .8 5 .5 5 .1 5 .2 3 .5 5 .1 5 .2 5 .1 3 .1 2 .6 5 .5 4 -8 7 4 .1 5 .9 5 .5 5 .3 5 .4 3 .5 5 .4 5 .5 3 .4 5 .5 5 .1 3 .8 1 -88 4 .1 5 .9 5 .5 3 .5 5 .4 3 .5 5 .4 5 .5 3 .4 5 .5 5 .1 2 -8 8 4 .0 5 .8 5 .4 3 .5 5 .4 3 .5 5 .4 5 .5 3 .4 5 .4 3 -8 5 4 -8 3 1-84 2 -8 4 5 -8 4 4 -8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 3-85 4 -8 5 5 ,7 1 9 .5 5 ,7 5 4 .7 1 .4 5 ,7 7 6 .7 5 .0 4 .6 5 .7 4 .8 5 .0 5 .9 4 .7 4 .7 4 .5 4 .5 5 .0 5 .2 5 .3 6 .1 5 .7 4 .2 4 .7 4 .8 4 .7 4 .8 5 .4 5 .1 5 .6 4 .0 4 .4 4 .4 4 .2 4 .2 5 .2 5 .0 1 -86 2 -8 6 5 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1-8 8 5 ,8 2 3 .0 3 ,8 6 5 .5 5 ,9 2 5 .0 5 ,9 5 6 .1 5 ,9 8 5 .2 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BA*tt OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 20, 1988 12 GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT R A T I O SCALE QUARTERLY T O T A L S AT ANNUAL RATES R A T I O SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S S E AS O NA L L Y AD J US T ED T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 5. 2 5. 0 4. 8 4. 6 4. 4 4. 2 4. 0 3. 8 3. 6 3. 4 4. 4 4. 2 4. 0 3. 8 3. 6 3. 4 3. 2 3. 0 2.8 2.6 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 SOURCEt PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS LATEST DATA PLO TTED t 1986 U .S . 1987 1988 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E D . 2ND QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . 13 L O U IS GENERAL RATIO PRICE INDEX* SCALE RATIO 1982-100 1980 •AS USED SCALE 1982-100 1981 IN NATIONAL 1982 1983 1984 1985 INCOME ACCOUNTS 1986 1987 1988 SOURCE. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: 2ND QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL QUARTER 5*83 4 -8 3 1-84 2 -8 4 3-8 4 4 -8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -8 6 1982 - 100 2 -8 6 5 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 4 -8 5 4 .7 1 -84 4 .5 4 .2 1 0 5 .4 2 -8 4 4 .0 5 .6 5 .0 5 -8 4 5 .8 5 .6 5 .2 4 -8 4 5 .7 5 .4 3 .1 5 .2 5 .0 1 -85 5 .5 5 .5 3 .0 5 .0 2 .8 2 .6 2 -8 5 5 .5 5 .5 3 .1 5 .1 5 .0 5 .0 5 .5 5 -8 5 5 .4 5 .2 3 .0 3 .0 2 .9 2 .8 2 .9 2 .6 4 -8 5 5 .5 5 .2 3 .0 5 .0 2 .9 2 .9 5 .1 2 .9 5 .5 1-86 5 .1 2 .9 2 .7 2 .7 2 .6 2 .5 2 .5 2 .2 2 .0 0 .7 2 -8 6 5 .1 5 .0 2 .8 2 .8 2 .7 2 .7 2 .7 2 .5 2 .5 2 .2 5 .6 5 -8 6 5 .5 5 .1 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .1 5 .0 4 .1 4 .7 4 -8 6 5 .2 5 .0 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 2 .8 2 .9 2 .8 2 .9 2 .8 5 .5 5 .4 2 .1 1 -87 5 .2 5 .1 5 .0 5 .0 2 .9 2 .9 5 .0 2 .9 5 .0 2 .9 5 .5 5 .4 2 .8 2 -8 7 5 .2 5 .1 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .5 5 .4 5 .0 5 .5 5 -8 7 5 .2 5 .1 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .1 5 .0 5 .4 5 .4 5 .1 5 .4 5 .5 5 .1 4 -8 7 5 .2 5 .1 5 .0 5 .0 2 .9 2 .9 5 .0 2 .9 5 .0 2 .9 5 .1 5 .0 2 .7 2 .4 1-88 5 .1 5 .0 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 2 .8 2 .9 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .7 2 .4 2 .0 1 .7 2 -8 8 5 .2 5 .1 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .1 5 .0 5 .1 5 .1 5 .5 5 .5 5 .1 5 .5 5 .2 5 .2 5 .2 5 .6 5 .5 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-84 2 -8 4 5 -8 4 4 -8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -86 2 -8 6 5 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 1 0 6 .5 1 0 7 .5 5 .4 1 0 8 .2 1 0 9 .0 1 0 9 .7 1 1 0 .6 1 1 1 .5 1 1 2 .2 1 1 2 .4 5 .5 5 .1 1 1 5 .4 5 .2 5 .0 1 1 4 .7 2 .9 2 .7 1 1 5 .5 1 1 6 .5 5 .5 2 .8 1 1 7 .5 5 .5 118*2 1 1 8 .9 1 1 9 .4 1 2 1 .0 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 20, 1988 14 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT DOLLARS (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 4 -8 5 9 .7 1-84 8 .9 8 .1 2 -8 4 9 .2 8 .9 1-84 2 -8 4 5 -8 4 4 -8 4 1-8 5 2 -8 5 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-86 2 -8 6 4 -8 6 5 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1-88 2 ,5 1 5 . 8 2 ,5 6 1 .1 5 -8 4 8 .5 7 .8 7 .7 5 .6 4 -8 4 8 .1 7 .7 7 .5 6 .4 7 .2 1-85 8 .4 8 .2 8 .2 7 .7 8 .7 1 0 .2 2 -8 5 8 .2 8 .0 7 .5 8 .2 8 .7 7 .1 5 -8 5 8 .5 8 .5 8 .5 8 .0 00 & 2 ,4 1 7 .0 00 o 9 .8 2 ,4 5 0 . 5 9 .1 8 .5 4 -8 5 8 .2 8 .0 8 .0 7 .7 8 .1 8 .5 7 .7 7 .9 6 .0 1-86 7 .9 7 .7 7 .7 7 .4 7 .7 7 .8 7 .2 7 .2 5 .9 5 .8 2 -8 6 7 .7 7 .5 7 .4 7 .1 7 .5 7 .5 6 .7 6 .6 5 .6 5 .4 4 .9 5 -8 6 7 .9 7 .7 7 .7 7 .5 7 .7 7 .8 7 .4 7 .4 6 .8 7 .1 7 .7 1 0 .6 4 -8 6 7 .7 7 .5 7 .4 7 .2 7 .4 7 .4 7 .0 7 .0 6 .4 6 .5 6 .7 7 .6 4 .8 1-87 7 .6 7 .4 7 .4 7 .1 7 .5 7 .5 6 .9 6 .9 6 .4 6 .5 6 .7 7 .5 5 .6 6 .5 2 -8 7 7 .7 7 .6 7 .6 7 .4 7 .5 7 .6 7 .5 7 .5 6 .9 7 .1 7 .5 7 .9 7 .1 8 .2 1 0 .0 5 -8 7 7 .8 7 .7 7 .7 7 .5 7 .7 7 .7 7 .5 7 .5 7 .2 7 .4 7 .6 8 .2 7 .6 8 .5 9 .6 9 .1 4 -8 7 7 .5 7 .4 7 .5 7 .1 7 .5 7 .5 7 .0 7 .0 6 .7 6 .7 6 .9 7 .2 6 .5 7 .0 7 .1 5 .7 2 .4 7 .1 7 .2 7 .2 7 .0 7 .0 6 .7 6 .8 6 .9 7 .1 6 .6 7 .0 7 .1 6 .1 4 .6 6 .9 2 ,4 9 5 .4 2 ,5 5 4 . 9 2 ,5 9 9 .5 2 ,6 6 1 . 4 9 .9 2 ,7 0 0 .4 2 ,7 5 9 . 0 2 ,7 7 2 .1 2 ,8 4 2 . 8 2 ,8 7 6 . 0 2 ,9 2 1 .7 2 ,9 9 2 .2 5 , 0 5 8 .2 5 ,0 7 6 .5 5 ,1 2 8 .1 1-88 7 .5 7 .5 7 .5 2 -8 8 7 .5 7 .4 7 .4 7 .2 7 .5 7 .5 7 .1 7 .1 6 .9 7 .0 7 .1 7 .4 6 .9 7 .5 7 .4 6 .8 6 .0 7 .8 8 .8 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-84 2 -8 4 5-8 4 4 -8 4 1-8 5 2 -8 5 5 -8 5 4—85 1-86 2 -8 6 5—86 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 5 , 1 9 4 .6 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 2 0 , 1988 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN 1982 DOLLARS (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-84 2 -8 4 4 -8 5 5 .5 1-84 4 .6 5 .7 2 -8 4 5 .2 5 .1 6 .4 5 -8 4 4 .4 4 .0 4 .1 1 .9 4 -8 4 4 .5 4 .1 4 .2 5 .1 5-8 4 4 -8 4 1-8 5 2 -8 5 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-86 2 -8 6 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 -8 6 4 -8 6 1-8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 2 ,1 9 1 .9 2 ,2 1 2 .1 2 ,2 4 6 .7 2 ,2 5 7 .5 4 .5 2 , 2 8 1 .1 1-85 4 .8 4 .6 4 .8 4 .5 5 .6 6 .8 2 -8 5 4 .5 4 .4 4 .5 4 .0 4 .8 5 .0 5 .2 5 -8 5 4 .8 4 .7 4 .9 4 .6 5 .5 5 .6 5 .0 6 .8 4 -8 5 4 .5 4 .4 4 .4 4 .1 4 .6 4 .6 5 .9 4 .5 1 .9 1-86 4 .5 4 .4 4 .5 4 .2 4 .6 4 .7 4 .1 4 .5 5 .5 4 .8 2 -8 6 4 .5 4 .4 4 .5 4 .2 4 .6 4 .6 4 .2 4 .4 5 .7 4 .6 4 .5 2 ,5 1 9 .1 2 ,5 5 7 .4 2 ,5 7 5 . 9 2 ,5 8 6 .9 2 ,4 1 5 .1 2 ,4 4 0 . 9 5 -8 6 4 .6 4 .6 4 .7 4 .5 4 .8 4 .9 4 .5 4 .8 4 .5 5 .2 5 .5 6 .5 4 -8 6 4 .4 4 .5 4 .5 4 .1 4 .4 4 .4 4 .1 4 .2 5 .7 4 .2 5 .9 5 .7 1 .2 1-8 7 4 .1 4 .0 4 .0 5 .8 4 .0 4 .0 5 .6 5 .7 5 .2 5 .4 5 .1 2 .7 0 .9 0 .6 2 -8 7 4 .1 4 .0 4 .0 5 .9 4 .0 4 .0 5 .7 5 .8 5 .5 5 .6 5 .5 5 .1 2 .0 2 .5 4 .5 5 -8 7 4 .2 4 .1 4 .1 5 .9 4 .1 4 .1 5 .8 5 .9 5 .5 5 .7 5 .6 5 .4 2 .7 5 .2 4 .5 4 .6 4 -8 7 5 .8 5 .7 5 .7 5 .5 5 .6 3 .5 5 .2 5 .2 2 .9 5 .0 2 .7 2 .5 1 .7 1 .8 2 .2 1 .2 -2 .1 1-8 8 3 .8 5 .7 5 .7 5 .5 5 .7 3 .6 5 .5 5 .4 5 .0 3 .2 5 .0 2 .8 2 .2 2 .4 2 .8 2 .5 1 .2 4 .5 2 -8 8 5 .8 5 .7 5 .7 5 .5 sO IO 3 .6 5 .5 5 .5 5 .0 5 .1 5 .0 2 .8 2 .5 2 .5 2 .8 2 .5 1 .8 5 .8 5 .0 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-84 2 -8 4 4 -8 4 1 -8 5 2 -8 5 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1—86 2 -8 6 5 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 3 -8 4 2 ,4 7 8 .6 2 ,4 8 6 .2 2 ,4 9 0 . 2 2 ,5 1 6 .6 2 ,5 4 5 .2 2 ,5 5 1 .7 2 ,5 5 9 .8 2 ,5 7 9 .0 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 20, 1988 15 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 5 -8 3 4 -8 5 1-8 4 2 -8 4 5 -8 4 4 -8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -8 6 2 -8 6 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 4 -8 5 5 4 .9 1-84 6 2 .8 7 1 .0 2 -8 4 5 8 .7 5 1 .2 0 .7 5 -8 4 2 9 .0 2 1 .5 2 .2 5 .7 4 -8 4 2 1 .5 1 4 .1 - 0 .2 - 0 .7 - 5 .0 6 6 1 .8 1-85 1 4 .8 8 .1 - 5 .6 - 5 .0 - 9 . 0 - 1 2 .9 6 Ï 9 .5 2 -8 5 1 5 .9 8 .2 - 1 .5 -1 .8 - 5 .6 -2 .9 5-8 5 9 .8 4 .5 - 5 .7 - 4 .5 - 6 .5 - 7 .0 4 -8 5 1 0 .8 6 .2 - 0 .8 - 1 .0 - 1 .9 -1 .2 5 .1 0 .6 1 8 .7 1-86 1 1 .8 7 .8 1 .8 1 .9 1 .6 5 .0 7 .4 7 .1 2 0 .0 2 -8 6 9 .5 5 .8 0 .5 0 .5 - 0 .2 0 .6 5 .6 2 .4 8 .8 5—86 7 .9 4 .4 - 0 .6 - 0 .8 - 1 .5 -0 .8 1 .4 0 .1 4 .2 - 0 .2 -9 .5 - 8 .6 4 -8 6 7 .4 4 .2 - 0 .4 - 0 .5 -0 .9 -0 .4 1 .5 0 .4 5 .8 0 .4 -5 .8 -5 .4 2 .1 1 -87 8 .2 5 .5 1 .1 1 .2 0 .9 1 .6 5 .6 2 .9 6 .2 5 .8 -0 .2 5 .5 1 0 .2 1 8 .9 2 -8 7 8 .2 5 .5 1 .6 1 .7 1 .5 2 .2 4 .0 5 .5 6 .4 4 .5 1 .4 4 .6 9 .4 1 5 .2 7 .8 5 -8 7 7 .8 5 .5 1 .7 1 .8 1 .6 2 .2 5 .9 5 .4 5 .9 4 .2 1 .6 4 .2 7 .6 9 .5 5 .1 2 .5 4 -8 7 9 .5 7 .2 5 .9 4 .1 4 .1 4 .9 6 .7 6 .6 9 .5 8 .1 6 .4 9 .5 1 5 .5 1 6 .5 1 5 .7 1 9 .9 4 0 .5 1 -8 8 8 .9 6 .7 5 .6 5 .8 5 .8 4 .5 6 .1 5 .9 8 .2 7 .1 5 .4 7 .9 1 1 .0 1 2 .8 1 1 .4 1 2 .6 1 8 .0 - 0 .8 2 -8 8 8 .5 6 .1 5 .2 5 .4 5 .5 4 .0 5 .4 5 .1 7 .2 6 .1 4 .5 6 .5 8 .9 1 0 .1 8 .4 8 .5 1 0 .6 -1 .8 - 2 .7 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-84 2 -8 4 5-8 4 4 -8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 5-8 5 4 -8 5 1—8 6 2 -8 6 5 -8 6 4 -8 6 1-8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 5 7 9 .8 6 6 5 .0 6 6 4 .2 6 7 0 .5 8 .4 6 5 2 .5 - 5 . 9 - 1 4 .8 6 2 6 .7 6 5 4 .1 2 1 .4 6 8 6 .6 4 .2 - 1 0 . 5 6 6 7 .8 6 5 5 .0 6 5 6 .4 6 8 5 .5 6 9 8 .5 7 0 2 .8 7 6 4 .9 7 6 5 .4 7 5 8 .1 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LCHJIS SEPTEMBER 2 0 , 1988 GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN 1982 DOLLARS (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -8 4 2 -8 4 5-8 4 4 -8 4 4 -8 5 4 6 .5 1 -84 5 5 .9 6 6 .0 2 -8 4 5 5 .5 5 0 .1 2 .0 5 -8 4 2 6 .6 2 0 .6 2 .8 5 .6 4 -8 4 1 9 .5 1 5 .6 0 .1 - 0 .8 - 5 .0 1-8 5 1 5 .5 7 .8 - 5 .2 - 4 .9 - 8 . 8 - 1 2 .4 2 -8 5 1 2 .8 8 .0 - 0 .9 - 1 .7 - 5 .5 - 2 .5 -4 .9 -6 .9 - 7 .6 1-85 2 -8 5 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -8 6 2—8 6 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5-8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -88 577*2 655*2 8 .5 4 .0 - 5 .8 9 .8 6 .0 - 0 .6 1-8 6 1 0 .8 7 .4 1 .7 2 -8 6 8 .2 5 .0 - 0 .2 5 -8 6 6 .1 5 .1 - 1 .7 4 -8 6 5 .1 2 .2 - 2 .2 1-87 6 .1 5 .5 - 0 .4 2 -8 7 6 .5 5 .9 0 .2 5 -8 7 6 .2 4 .0 4 -8 7 7 .9 1-8 8 2 -8 8 6 6 4 .2 6 5 5 .7 654*5 8 .6 6 4 7 .5 - 5 . 0 - 1 7 .0 6 1 8 .1 -1 .1 -2 .0 - 1 .2 2 .9 1 .7 1 .4 2 .7 6 .9 6 .5 2 0 .5 -0 .5 -1 .0 - 0 .4 2 .2 0 .7 7*4 -2 .1 - 2 .8 - 2 .5 -0 .7 - 2 .5 1 .5 - 4 .2 - 1 4 .5 -1 4 .2 -2 .6 -5 .5 -5 .0 -1 .6 -5 .2 -0 .2 - 4 .9 -1 1 .9 - 1 0 .6 r*. 0 1 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 6 5 8 .4 - 1 .1 -0 .6 0 .9 - 0 .1 5 .0 - 0 .2 -4 .7 0 .1 -0 .2 0 .5 1 .8 1 .0 5 .8 1 .2 -2 .1 0 .6 0 .4 0 .2 0 .7 2 .1 1 .4 4 .0 1 .7 -1 .0 5 .9 2 .7 2 .8 2 .7 5 .4 5 .0 4 .6 7 .5 5 .8 7 .6 5 .6 2 .7 2 .7 2 .7 5 .5 4 .7 4 .4 6*8 5 .4 5 .7 6 .6 1 0 .5 1 4 .5 6 .7 4 .9 2 .1 2 .1 2 .0 2 .5 5 .8 5 .4 5 .4 4 .0 2 .4 4 .7 7 .7 1 0 .4 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-8 4 2 -8 4 5 -8 4 4 -8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -86 2 -8 6 5 -8 6 4 -8 6 0 .2 2 0 .8 6 4 8 .0 6 7 8 .0 1 9 .8 6 5 2 .1 1 .5 - 1 4 . 4 5 .9 6 2 7 .6 - 6 .9 6 1 6 .5 - 1 .2 6 .1 6 4 6 .4 1 .2 7 .0 1 4 .6 8 .8 1 .9 6 .4 1 1 .5 6 .8 4 .8 1 6 .5 2 0 .5 5 8 .6 1 2 .8 14 .1 1 9 .1 2 .5 8 .4 8 .5 9 .5 -2 .6 - 7 .4 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 7 .5 1 2 .2 2 0 .9 1 7 .6 6 6 0 .1 6 6 7 .9 7 2 4 .7 7 2 8 .9 7 1 5 .1 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 20, 1988 16 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN CURRENT DOLLARS (Compounded Annual Rales of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-84 2—84 5-8 4 4 -8 4 4 -8 5 - 2 .7 1-84 4 .7 1 2 .6 2 -8 4 1 0 .9 1 8 .4 2 4 .6 5 -8 4 9 .7 1 4 .1 1 4 .9 6 .0 4 -8 4 9 .7 1 5 .1 1 5 .2 8 .0 9 .9 1-85 9 .9 1 2 .6 1 2 .6 8 .9 1 0 .4 1 0 .8 2 -8 5 9 .8 1 2 .0 1 1 .9 9 .0 1 0 .0 1 0 .0 1-85 2 -8 5 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-8 6 2 -8 6 5 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4 -8 7 1 -88 6 7 6 .1 6 9 6 .5 7 5 5 .8 7 4 6 .6 7 6 4 .5 7 8 4 .4 8 0 1 .7 9 .1 5 -8 5 11 .1 1 5 .2 1 5 .5 1 1 .2 1 2 .5 1 5 .4 1 4 .7 2 0 .6 4—85 1 0 .8 1 2 .6 1 2 .6 1 0 .7 1 1 .6 12 .1 1 2 .5 1 4 .2 8 4 0 .2 8 5 6 .7 8 .1 8 4 7 .8 1—86 9 .2 1 0 .6 1 0 .5 8 .4 8 .8 8 .6 8 .1 7 .7 1 .8 -4 .1 2 -8 6 9 .5 1 0 .6 1 0 .5 8 .7 9 .0 8 .9 8 .5 8 .4 4 .6 2 .8 1 0 .5 5 -8 6 9 .0 1 0 .1 9 .9 8 .4 8 .7 8 .5 8 .1 7 .9 5 .0 5 .9 8 .2 6 .1 4 -8 6 8 .5 9 .5 9 .2 7 .7 7 .9 7 .7 7 .2 6 .9 4 .4 5 .5 6 .1 4 .1 8 6 8 .8 8 8 1 .8 8 8 6 .5 2 .1 9 0 5 .8 1-8 7 8 .4 9 .5 9 .1 7 .8 7 .9 7 .7 7 .5 7 .1 5 .0 4 .4 6 .6 5 .4 5 .1 8 ..0 2 -8 7 8 .2 9 .1 8 .8 7 .6 7 .7 7 .5 7 .1 6 .9 5 .0 4 .5 6 .4 5 .4 5 .2 6..7 5 .4 5 -8 7 8 .2 8 .9 8 .7 7 .6 7 .7 7 .5 7 .1 6 .9 5 .5 4 .9 6 .5 5 .8 5 .7 6..9 6 .4 4 -8 7 8 .1 8 .8 8 .5 7 .5 7 .6 7 .4 7 .1 6 .9 5 .5 5 .2 6 .5 5 .9 5 .9 6..9 6 .5 7 .0 6 .6 1-88 7 .6 8 .2 7 .9 6 .9 7 .0 6 .7 6 .4 6 .2 4 .8 4 .5 5 .6 4 .9 4 .7 5.,5 4 .6 4 .5 2 .8 - 0 .9 2 -8 8 7 .5 8 .1 7 .9 6 .9 7 .0 6 .8 6 .5 6 .2 5 .0 4 .7 5 .8 5 .2 5 .1 5 ..6 5 .1 5 .0 4 .2 5 .0 7 .1 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-84 2 -8 4 5 -8 4 4—84 1—85 2 -8 5 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -86 2 -8 6 5 -86 4 -8 6 1-8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 9 1 5 .7 9 5 2 .2 7 .4 9 4 7 .5 9 4 5 .2 9 6 1 .6 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 20» 1988 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN 1982 DOLLARS (Compounded Annual Rales of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 5-8 5 4 -8 5 1-84 2 -8 4 5 -8 4 4 -8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -86 2 -8 6 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 -86 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 6 4 2 .2 4 -8 5 -6 .8 1-84 -0 .2 6 .9 2 -8 4 5 .5 1 2 .2 1 7 .7 5 -8 4 4 .7 8 .9 9 .9 2 .6 4 -8 4 4 .8 7 .9 8 .5 5 .9 5 .2 1-8 5 5 .2 7 .8 8 .0 5 .0 6 .2 7 .5 2 -8 5 5 .4 7 .6 7 .7 5 .4 6 .5 6 .9 6 .5 5 -8 5 7 .1 9 .5 9 .7 8 .1 9 .5 1 1 .0 1 5 .0 1 9 .8 4 -8 5 6 .5 8 .5 8 .5 7 .0 7 .9 8 .6 9 .0 1 0 .5 1 .6 6 5 5 .0 6 8 0 .2 6 8 4 .5 6 9 5 .2 7 0 5 .5 7 1 6 .7 7 4 9 .8 7 5 2 .7 1-86 5 .2 6 .6 6 .6 5 .1 5 .5 5 .6 5 .1 4 .7 - 2 .1 - 5 .7 2 -8 6 5 .6 6 .9 6 .9 5 .6 6 .1 6 .2 6 .0 5 .9 1 .6 1 .6 9 .5 5 -8 6 5 .5 6 .7 6 .6 5 .5 5 .8 5 .9 5 .7 5 .6 2 .5 2 .5 6 .9 4 .5 4 -8 6 5 .4 6 .4 6 .4 5 .5 5 .6 5 .7 5 .5 5 .5 2 .6 2 .9 5 .9 4 .2 1-8 7 4 .9 5 .9 5 .8 4 .8 5 .0 5 .0 4 .7 4 .4 2 .0 2 .1 4 .2 2 .5 1 .6 - 0 .8 2 -8 7 4 .5 5 .4 5 .5 4 .5 4 .5 4 .4 4 .1 5 .8 1 .7 1 .7 5 .5 1 .8 0 .9 - 0 .6 - 0 .4 7 4 1 .8 7 5 8 .8 7 6 6 .9 4 .0 7 7 4 .5 7 7 2 .9 7 7 2 .2 5 -8 7 4 .6 5 .4 5 .5 4 .4 4 .6 4 .5 4 .5 4 .0 2 .2 2 .5 5 .7 2 .5 2 .1 1 .4 2 .6 5 .7 4—87 4 .6 5 .4 5 .5 4 .5 4 .6 4 .6 4 .5 4 .1 2 .5 2 .6 5 .9 2 .9 2 .7 2 .5 5 .4 5 .4 5 .0 1 -8 8 5 .9 4 .6 4 .4 5 .6 5 .7 5 .5 5 .2 5 .0 1 .4 1 .4 2 .5 1 .5 0 .8 0 .2 0 .5 0 .7 - 1 .7 - 7 .9 2 -8 8 5 .9 4 .5 4 .4 5 .6 5 .7 5 .6 5 .5 5 .0 1 .6 1 .6 2 .5 1 .6 1 .5 0 .8 1 .1 1 .5 0 .2 - 2 .2 5 .9 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-84 2 -8 4 5 -8 4 4 -8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -8 6 2 -8 6 5 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 7 8 2 .9 7 9 2 .6 7 7 6 .4 7 8 5 .8 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 20, 1988 17 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 3 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-84 4 -8 3 1 4 .6 1-84 1 4 .3 1 4 .0 2 -8 4 1 1 .0 9 .3 4 .8 2 -8 4 3 -8 4 4 -8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES J -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -8 6 2 -8 6 3 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 2 ,5 2 7 .9 2 ,6 1 1 .8 2 , 6 4 2 .8 3 -8 4 1 0 .1 8 .7 6 .2 7 .5 4 -8 4 9 .2 7 .9 6 .0 6 .6 5 .7 1 -85 8 .6 7 .4 5 .9 6 .2 5 .5 5 .4 2 -8 5 9 .2 8 .3 7 .3 7 .9 8 .0 9 .1 13.1 3 -8 5 7 .8 6 .9 5 .7 5 .9 5 .5 5 .5 5 .5 - 1 .5 4 -8 5 7 .9 7 .1 6 .2 6 .4 6 .1 6 .3 6 .6 3 .5 8 .6 1—86 8 .1 7 .3 6 .5 6 .8 6 .7 6 .9 7 .3 5 .4 9 .0 9 .4 2 -8 6 8 .0 7 .3 6 .6 6 .8 6 .7 6 .9 7 .2 5 .8 8 .4 8 .2 7 .1 3 -8 6 7 .5 6 .8 6 .2 6 .3 6 .2 6 .2 6 .4 5 .1 6 .8 6 .2 4 .6 2 .2 4 -8 6 7 .2 6 .6 6 .0 6 .1 5 .9 6 .0 6 .1 4 .9 6 .3 5 .7 4 .5 3 .2 4 .5 1 -87 7 .5 6 .9 6 .4 6 .5 6 .4 6 .5 6 .6 5 .8 7 .0 6 .7 6 .0 5 .7 7 .5 1 0 .7 2 -8 7 7 .0 6 .5 6 .0 6 .1 5 .9 6 .0 6 .0 5 .2 6 .2 5 .8 5 .1 4 .6 5 .4 5 .9 1 .3 3 -8 7 7 .2 6 .7 6 .2 6 .3 6 .2 6 .5 6 .4 5 .6 6 .6 6 .3 5 .8 5 .5 6 .5 7 .0 5 .2 9 .3 4 -8 7 7 .5 7 .0 6 .6 6 .7 6 .6 6 .7 6 .8 6 .2 7 .1 6 .9 6 .6 6 .5 7 .4 8 .2 7 .4 1 0 .5 1 1 .8 1-8 8 7 .4 7 .0 6 .6 6 .7 6 .7 6 .8 6 .9 6 .3 7 .2 7 .0 6 .7 6 .6 7 .4 8 .0 7 .4 9 .5 9 .6 7 .4 2 -8 8 7 .3 7 .0 6 .6 6 .7 6 .6 6 .7 6 .8 6 .3 7 .0 6 .8 6 .6 6 .5 7 .1 7 .6 7 .0 8 .5 8 .2 6 .5 5 .6 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 1-8 4 2 -8 4 3-8 4 4 -8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -86 2 -8 6 3 -8 6 4 -8 6 1-87 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 2 ,6 9 1 .1 2 ,7 2 8 .6 2 ,7 6 4 .6 2 ,8 5 0 .7 2 ,8 4 0 .0 2 ,8 9 9 .5 2 ,9 6 5 .1 3 ,0 1 6 .3 3 ,0 3 2 .4 3 ,0 6 4 .7 3 ,1 4 5 .9 3 ,1 5 4 .1 3 ,2 2 4 .9 3 ,3 1 5 .8 3 ,3 7 5 .6 3 ,4 2 1 .5 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 2 0 , 1988 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 1982 DOLLARS (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 1 0 .2 4 -8 3 1-84 2 -8 4 3-8 4 4 -8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 3 -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -8 6 2 -8 6 3 -8 6 4 -8 6 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1 -8 7 2—87 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -88 2 ,3 9 2 .7 1 -84 9 .8 9 .4 2 -8 4 7 .0 5 .4 1 .6 3 -8 4 6 .2 4 .8 2 .7 3 .7 4 -8 4 5 .5 4 .3 2 .7 3 .3 2 .8 1 -8 5 4 .9 3 .9 2 .6 2 .9 2 .5 2 .1 2 -8 5 5 .5 4 .7 3 .8 4 .4 4 .6 5 .5 8 .9 2 ,4 4 6 .9 2 ,4 5 6 .6 2 ,4 7 9 .2 2 ,4 9 6 .3 2 ,5 0 9 .4 2 ,5 6 3 .5 3 -8 5 4 .2 3 .4 2 .4 2 .6 2 .3 2 .1 2 .1 - 4 .3 4 -8 5 4 .2 3 .5 2 .7 2 .9 2 .7 2 .7 2 .8 - 0 .1 4 .4 1 -8 6 4 .6 4 .0 3 .4 3 .6 3 .6 3 .8 4 .2 2 .7 6 .3 8 .3 2 -8 6 4 .8 4 .3 3 .7 4 .0 4 .0 4 .2 4 .6 3 .6 6 .4 7 .4 6 .5 2 ,5 3 5 .4 2 ,5 6 2 .8 2 ,6 1 4 .5 2 ,6 5 5 .9 3 -8 6 4 .2 3 .7 3 .1 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3 .5 2 .5 4 .3 4 .2 2 .3 - 1 .8 4 -8 6 4 .0 3 .5 2 .9 3 .1 3 .0 3 .0 3 .2 2 .2 3 .6 3 .4 1 .8 - 0 .5 0 .8 1 -8 7 4 .0 3 .5 3 .1 3 .2 3 .2 3 .2 3 .3 2 .6 3 .8 3 .6 2 .5 1 .2 2 .7 4 .6 2 -8 7 3 .5 3 .0 2 .5 2 .6 2 .5 2 .5 2 .5 1 .7 2 .6 2 .3 1 .2 -0 .1 0 .4 0 .3 - 3 .9 3 -8 7 3 .5 3 .1 2 .7 2 .8 2 .7 2 .7 2 .7 2 .1 2 .9 2 .7 1 .8 0 .8 1 .5 1 .7 0 .3 4 .8 4 -8 7 3 .7 3 .3 3 .0 3 .0 3 .0 3 .0 3 .1 2 .5 3 .3 3 .2 2 .5 1 .8 2 .6 3 .0 2 .5 5 .8 6 .9 1-88 3 .8 3 .4 3 .1 3 .2 3 .1 3 .2 3 .3 2 .8 3 .5 3 .4 2 .8 2 .3 3 .0 3 .4 3 .1 5 .5 5 .9 5 .0 2 -8 8 3 .6 3 .2 2 .9 3 .0 2 .9 2 .9 3 .0 2 .5 3 .2 3 .0 2 .5 2 .0 2 .5 2 .8 2 .5 4 .1 3 .9 2 .5 0 .0 3 -8 3 4 -8 3 1-84 2 -8 4 3-8 4 4 -8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 3 -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -86 2 -8 6 3 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 3 -8 7 4 -8 7 1 -8 8 2 ,6 4 3 .9 2 ,6 4 9 .4 2 ,6 7 9 .6 2 ,6 5 2 .8 2 ,6 8 3 .9 2 ,7 2 8 .9 2 ,7 6 2 .3 2 ,7 6 2 .2 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 20, 1988 18 CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES (Compounded An m al Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 5 -8 3 4 -8 3 1-84 2 -8 4 4 -8 5 7 .0 1-84 1 7 .0 2 7 .9 2 -8 4 9 .8 1 1 .2 5 -8 4 0 .5 - 1 . 9 - 1 4 .0 - 2 5 .5 4 -8 4 - 1 .0 - 2 . 9 - 1 1 .5 - 1 5 .2 5 -8 4 4 -8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1 -86 2 -8 6 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 5 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -8 7 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1-88 1 4 5 .4 1 5 2 .5 - 5 .4 1 5 1 .2 1 4 1 .4 - 6 .1 1 5 9 .2 1-85 - 8 . 8 - 1 1 .7 - 1 9 .5 - 2 4 .2 - 2 4 . 6 - 5 9 .4 2 -8 5 - 7 .0 5 -8 5 -4 .5 - 5 . 8 - 1 0 .5 - 1 1 .8 -6 .6 4 -8 5 - 1 .8 - 2 .9 - 7 .2 - 5 .5 1-86 - 5 .5 - 6 . 5 - 1 0 .1 - 1 1 .0 2 -8 6 - 4 .2 - 5 .2 - 8 .5 5 -8 6 -2 .0 -2 .8 -5 .4 - 9 . 1 - 1 5 .1 - 1 7 .9 - 1 5 .9 - 2 0 .4 - 6 .6 1 2 2 .8 4 .6 1 2 4 .2 -9 .5 1 0 .7 1 7 .1 1 2 9 .2 -2 .9 1 5 .7 1 8 .5 1 9 .9 1 5 5 .2 - 8 .8 -9 .5 0 .5 -1 .1 - 9 . 1 - 5 1 .0 1 2 5 .2 - 8 .9 - 6 .6 -6 .7 1 .7 1 .0 - 5 . 9 - 1 4 .0 - 5 .7 - 5 .2 - 2 .7 5 .5 5 .4 2 .6 - 2 .6 1 2 5 .4 7 .5 1 5 .8 2 5 .0 1 5 2 .6 1 5 7 .9 4 -8 6 -0 .7 - 1 .5 -5 .6 - 5 .6 -1 .1 -0 .5 6 .9 7 .2 5 .4 2 .0 1 6 .2 2 0 .9 1 7 .0 1-87 - 1 .1 - 1 .7 -5 .9 - 5 .9 - 1 .7 -1 .2 5 .0 5 .1 5 .2 0 .2 1 0 .0 1 0 .9 4 .4 - 6 .8 2 -8 7 0 .0 - 0 .5 -2 .4 - 2 .5 - 0 .1 0 .5 6 .4 6 .6 5 .2 2 .9 1 1 .5 1 2 .5 8 .6 4 .7 1 7 .6 5 -8 7 1 .5 1 .1 -0 .6 - 0 .5 1 .9 2 .6 8 .2 8 .6 7 .6 5 .9 1 5 .8 1 5 .1 1 2 .7 1 1 .4 2 1 .7 1 5 5 .5 1 4 1 .1 2 6 .0 1 4 9 .5 1 4 5 .7 4 -8 7 0 .8 0 .4 -1 .2 - 1 .1 0 .9 1 .5 6 .4 6 .6 5 .5 5 .8 10 .1 1 0 .5 7 .8 5 .7 1 0 .2 6 .6 - 9 .8 1-88 1 .5 1 .0 - 0 .5 - 0 .5 1 .6 2 .2 6 .8 6 .9 6 .0 4 .5 1 0 .1 1 0 .5 8 .5 6 .6 1 0 .5 7 .9 - 0 .1 1 0 .6 2 -8 8 5 .1 2 .8 1 .5 1 .8 5 .8 4 .6 9 .0 9 .4 8 .7 7 .7 1 5 .2 1 5 .9 1 2 .4 1 1 .7 1 5 .8 1 5 .5 1 1 .9 2 4 .7 4 0 .7 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-84 2 -8 4 5 -8 4 4 -8 4 1-85 2 -8 5 5 -8 5 4 -8 5 1-86 2—86 5 -8 6 4 -8 6 1 -87 2 -8 7 5 -8 7 4 -8 7 1—88 1 4 9 .4 1 6 2 .7 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS SEPTEMBER 20» 1988 HISTORICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA Estimates for the series in the regular quarterly presentation of NIPA tables for 1985-88:11 will be published in the July 1988 Survey of Current Business. Data for 1984 is in the July 1987 Survey of Current Business and 1983 is in the July 1986 Survey of Current Business. Estimates for NIPA series for 1929-82 are published in The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States. 1929-82: Statistical Tables. For further information and prices, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 19 I N V E N T O R I E S COMPARED WI T H MONTHLY SALES MANUFACTURING AND TRADE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SOURCE: * BE61NNIN6 IN 1982, I NVENT ORY DATA REFL ECT CHANGES U. S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE I N E S T I M A T I O N PROCEDURES. SHADED AREAS R E PRESENT P E R I OD S OF B U S I N E S S R E C E S S I O N S . L A T E S T DATA P L O T T E D : JULY P R E L I M I N A R Y DATA R E V I S E D FROM 1 9 8 2 PREPARED 8 Y FEDERAL 20 RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUI S
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