Full text of National Economic Trends : October 1987
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National Economic Trends October 1987 The growing U.S. trade deficit in this decade has prompted both concern and confusion. The nation’s net exports (exports minus imports, national income and product accounts basis) have fallen from $32.1 billion in 1980 to —$117.4 billion in the first three quarters of 1987, as exports rose from $351 billion to only $415.7 billion and imports climbed from $318.9 billion to $533.1 billion. One theory about these developments is that the United States has become less competitive in world trade, so that its exporting and import-competing industries have shrunk. According to this view, U.S. production of tradeable goods such as manufacturing and agricultural output has been depressed by these trade developments. A contrasting view is that the growth of world trade has declined, while that of U.S. tradeable goods output has risen. In the latter view, this output was purchased by domestic instead of foreign buyers. The table below assesses these views using growth rates for the periods 1970-80 and 1980-86, the latest data available. As the table shows, the growth of world trade—the real value of imports for about 150 member countries of the International Monetary Fund—slowed in the 1980s after growing rapidly in the 1970s. For the two major U.S. tradeable goods sectors— agriculture (including forestry and fisheries) and manufacturing—output growth accelerated during 1980-86; both substantially outpaced overall U.S. output growth and world import volume. While not shown in the table, manufacturing output growth slowed sharply, to less than a 2 percent rate, in Germany, France, Italy and Canada during 1980-86; in each country, manufacturing growth was slower than real GNP growth. Manufacturing output growth accelerated in the United Kingdom in the 1980s, but only at a 0.8 percent rate, slower than real output growth. These data suggest that the rise in the trade deficit has been accompanied by a rise in U.S. competitiveness. Annual Growth Rates of World Trade and U.S. Output Measures World trade (real imports, 1980 prices) 1980-86 1970-80 3 .2 % 5.4 Real GNP (1982 prices) Agricultural output (1982 prices) Manufacturing output (1982 prices) 2.6 % 4 .7 % 3 .4 % 2.8 1.0 2.8 -John A. Tatom T 1IE FEDERAL RESERM RANK of ST.I/HLS Views expressed do n ot necessarily re fle c t official positions o f th e Federal Reserve System. total c iv il ia n em plo ym en t COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R ATES O f CHANCE IN IT IA L THOUSANDS OF PEASCW5 MONTH MONTH 2-86 3-86 3-86 4-86 8-86 9-86 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-87 108*607 108*969 2 .3 1 .8 5—86 2 .3 2 .0 2 .2 2 .9 3 .0 3 .6 109*165 109*613 109*887 3 .0 3 .0 3 .4 4 .0 8-86 2 .8 2 .8 3 .1 3 .3 9-86 2 .3 2 .2 2 .3 2 .3 0 «0 1 o 5 .0 7-86 2 .3 2 .2 2 .3 2 .3 11-86 2 .3 2 .2 2 .3 2 .3 2 .3 2 .2 2 .3 12-86 7-86 2 .8 4-86 6-86 5-86 6-86 3 .0 110*067 2 .0 1 .4 1 .8 0 .5 110*192 2 .3 1 .1 0 .7 1 .5 1 .3 2 .5 2 .6 I •6 2 .4 2 .4 1 .6 2 .3 109*987 - 0 .9 110*432 110*637 2 .3 111*011 2 .5 2 .4 2 .5 2 .5 2 .1 2 .1 2 .8 3 .0 3 .2 4 .1 2 .6 2 .6 2 .7 2 .7 2 .4 2 .3 2 .4 3 .1 3 .3 3 .5 4 .1 4 .1 111*382 3-87 2 .4 2 .4 2 .4 2 .4 2 .1 2 .0 2 .0 2 .5 2 .6 2 .6 2 .7 1 .9 111*368 • 0 1 1-87 2-87 111*835 4-87 2 .6 2 .6 2 .6 2 .7 2 .4 2 .4 2 .4 2 .9 3 .0 3 .1 3 .3 3 .0 2 .5 5 .1 5-87 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 3 .0 2 .8 2 .8 2 .9 3 .4 3 .5 3 .7 4 .0 3 .9 3 .9 6 .0 6. 8 6-87 2 .5 2 .5 2 .6 2 .6 2 .4 2 .4 2 .4 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .9 2 .7 2 .4 3 .2 2 .3 112*447 112*257 - 2 .0 112*727 7-87 2 .7 2 .7 2 .7 2 .8 2 .6 2 .6 3 .0 3 .1 3 .1 3 .3 3 .1 2 .9 3 .7 3 .2 1 .5 5 .1 8-87 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .9 2 .7 2 .7 2 .7 3 .1 3 .2 3 .2 3 .3 3 .2 3 .1 3 .7 3 .4 2 .3 4 .5 3 .8 9-87 2 .4 2 .4 2 .5 2 .5 2 .3 2 .2 2 .3 2 .5 2 .6 2 .5 2 .6 2 .4 2 .1 2 .5 2 .0 0 .9 1 .8 0 .2 - 3 .2 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-8 6 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3—87 4-a? 5-67 6-87 7-67 8-87 113*081 112*772 M ffrA ftE O 6V F E 5 E K IL R E S E R V E BANK OF " S I . L O U IS ______ ________________ OCTOBER 2* 1987__________ PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R ATES OF CHANCE IN IT IA L TERM INAL MONTH 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 6-86 9 -86 10-66 11-66 THOUSANOS o r PERSO NS MONTH 12-86 1-87 2-67 3-67 4-6 7 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-87 99*013 3-86 1 .2 4-86 2 .1 2 .9 5-86 1 .9 2 .3 6-86 1 .2 1 .3 7-86 1 .7 1 .8 99*252 99*389 1 .7 99*323 - 0 .8 1 .4 1 .3 1 .6 99*601 3 .4 99*772 8-86 1 .7 1 .8 1 .6 2 .7 2 .1 9-86 2 .0 2 .1 1 .9 2 .9 2 .7 3 .3 10-86 2 .0 2 .1 1 .9 2 .7 2 .5 2 .7 100*039 2 .1 100*209 100*415 11-86 2 .0 2 .1 2 .7 2 .5 2 .6 2 .3 12-86 2 .0 2 .1 2 .0 2 .5 2 .3 2 .4 2 .1 2 .5 2 .2 1 .8 1-87 2 .2 2 .3 2 .3 2 .8 2 .7 2 .8 2 .7 2 .9 3 .0 4 .3 2-87 2 .3 2 .4 2 .8 2 .7 2 .8 2 .7 2 .8 3 .0 3 .5 2 .8 3-87 2 .3 2 .3 2 .7 2 .6 2 .7 2 .6 2 .7 2 .8 3 .1 2 .5 2 .1 4-67 2 .3 2 .4 2 .4 2 .4 2 .8 2 .7 2 .8 2 .7 2 .6 2 .9 3 .1 2 .7 2 .7 3 .2 100*567 100*919 101*150 101*329 101*598 5-87 2 .3 2 .3 2 .3 2 .3 2 .6 2 .5 2 .6 2 .6 2 .6 2 .7 2 .4 2 .2 2 .3 1 .3 6-87 2 .2 2 .3 2 .2 2 .3 2 .5 2 .4 2 .5 2 .4 2 .4 2 .5 2 .2 2 .0 1 .9 1 .3 1 .3 7-87 2 .3 2 .3 2 .3 2 .6 2 .5 2 .6 2 .5 2 .6 2 *6 2 .7 2 .4 2 .3 2 .4 2 .1 2 .5 3 .T 8-87 2 .3 2 .3 2 .3 2 .5 2 .5 2 .5 2 .4 2 .5 2 .5 2 .6 2 .3 2 .2 2 .3 2 .0 2 .3 2 .7 1 .8 9-87 2 .2 2 .3 2 .2 2 .5 2 .4 2 .4 2 .4 2 .4 2 .4 2 .5 2 .2 2 .1 2 .1 1 .9 2 .1 2 .3 1 .7 1 .6 2-86 3-66 4 —66 6-66 7-66 6-66 9 -6 6 10-66 11-66 12-66 1-67 ¿- 6 7 3-67 4-67 5-67 6-67 7-67 8-67 2 .3 5 -6 6 101*706 101*616 102*126 102 *27 8P 102*410P P- P R E L IM IN A R Y " M E E A ft S D BV f C B E i r a n r e S C l V E B AHK OF S T . L O U IS OCTOftgR 2» 1987__________________________ 2 E MP L O Y ME NT RATIO RATIO SC A L E MILLIONS OF PERSONS SEASONALLY M I L L I ON S ADJ USTED OF SCALE PERSONS 130 125 1 20 1 15 1 10 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 SOURCE: 1986 1987 U.S.DEPARTM ENT OF LABOR B EGIN N IN G JANUARY 1986, TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE NE1 PROCEDURES FOR ESTIM ATIN G MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION IN CREASIN G TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0 .3 X . PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PER IO D S LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt IN D ICATED . SEPTEMBER PR ELIM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESER VE BANK OF ST. U NE MP L OY ME NT SEASONALLY PERCENT LO U IS RATE ADJUSTED PERCENT 12.0 11 11.0 . 10. 10.0 9. 9.0 8. 8.0 7. 7.0 6. 6. 0 5. 5.0 4. 4.0 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 SOURCEi PERCENT OF C IV IL IA N LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt U .S . 1986 1987 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR LABOR FORCE SEPTEMBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER VE BANK OF ST. 3 LO U IS CONSUMER P R IC E IN O EX FOR A LL URBAN CONSUMERS, SEASO N ALLY AO JUSTEO _______________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R ATES O f CHANCE-------------------TERMINAL________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH__________________________________________________________________________1967-100 MONTH 8-87 3-86 4-87 5-87 6-87 T—87 2-86 6-86 3-87 5-86 1-87 2-87 7 -86 8-86 9-8 6 10-86 11-86 12-86 3-86 3 2 6 .5 - 4 .7 3 2 5 .6 4-86 - 4 .0 - 3 .3 5-86 - 1 .7 - 0 .2 3 .0 6—86 0 .0 1 .6 4 .1 5 .3 7-86 0 .1 1 .3 2 .9 2 .8 0 .4 8-86 0 .4 1 .4 2 .6 2 .5 1 .1 9-86 0 .8 1 .8 2 .8 2 .8 3 2 6 .4 3 2 7 .8 3 2 7 .9 3 2 8 .4 1 .8 3 2 9 .4 3 .7 1 .8 2 .7 2 .7 2 .6 3 .0 1 .2 2 .0 2*8 2 .7 2 .7 3 .0 2 .9 1 .3 2 .0 2 .7 2 .6 2 .6 2 .8 2 .6 CD O' 1 .0 V 3 3 0 .0 10-86 11-86 2 .2 3 3 0 .8 3 3 1 .4 2 .2 3 3 3 .6 1-87 1 .9 2 .6 3 .3 3 .3 3 .1 3 .5 3 .8 3 .9 4 .4 5 .2 8 .3 2-87 2 .2 2 .8 3 .5 3 .5 3 .3 3 .7 4 .1 4 .1 4 .6 5 .2 6 .7 5 .2 3-87 2 .4 3 .0 3 .6 3 .7 3 .5 3 .9 4 .2 4 .3 4 .7 5 .2 6 .2 5 .1 V—87 2 .6 3 .2 3 .8 3 .8 3 .7 4 .1 4 .4 4 .5 4 .8 5 .2 6 .0 5 .3 5 .3 5 .5 5-87 2 .7 3 .3 3 .8 3 .9 3 .7 4 .1 4 .3 4 .4 4 .7 5 .0 5 .6 4 .9 4 *9 4 .7 4 .0 6-87 2 .8 3 .3 3 .8 3 .9 3 .8 4 .1 4 .3 4 .4 4 .7 4 .9 5 .4 4 .8 4 .7 4 .6 4 .2 7-87 2 .8 3 .3 3 .8 3 .8 3 .7 4 .2 4 .2 4 .5 4 .7 5 .0 4 .5 4*4 4 .2 3 .7 3 .6 2 .9 8-87 3 .0 3 .5 3 .9 4 .0 3 .9 4 .1 4 .3 4 .4 4 .6 4 .8 5 .1 4 .7 4 .6 4 .5 4 .2 4 .3 4 .3 5 .8 9-87 2 .9 3 .4 3 .8 3 .8 3 .7 4 .2 4 .2 4 .4 4 .5 4 .8 4 .3 4 .2 4 .1 3 .8 3 .8 3 .6 3 .9 2 .1 2-86 3-86 4—86 5-86 6—86 8-86 9-86 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-87 7-86 3 3 5 .0 3 3 6 .4 5 .1 3 3 7 .9 3 3 9 .0 3 4 0 .2 4 .3 3 4 1 .0 3 4 2 .6 3 4 3 .2 IN IT IA L HflNTH ?ffifrA**iTBV F « « A L OCTOBER 23» ACSCAVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 1987__________________________________________ PRODUCER P R IC E IN D E X » F IN IS H E D GOODS - SEASO N ALLY A D JU ST ED * _______________________________________________________________________COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R ATES OF CHANGE_________________________________________________________________________ TERMINAL________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH MONTH 4-86 8-86 2-86 3-86 6-86 7-86 9-86 10-86 11-86 12-86 5-86 - 1 0 .2 4-86 - 8 .1 - 6 .1 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-87 2 8 7 .4 2 8 8 .6 5-86 - 3 .7 - 0 .2 6 .0 6-86 - 2.1 0 .7 4 .2 2 .5 7-86 - 3 .5 - 1 .8 - 0 .3 - 3 .3 —8 .8 8-86 - 2 .2 - 0 .5 0 .9 - 0 .7 —2 . 3 - 0 .4 2 8 9 .4 2 8 7 .2 2 8 8 .3 4 .7 9-86 - 1 .4 0 .1 1 .4 0 .3 4 .0 3 .4 10-86 - 0 .7 0 .7 1 .9 1 .1 4 .1 3 .8 11-86 - 0 .6 0 .7 1 .7 1 .0 3 .2 2 .7 12-86 —0 .5 0 .7 1 .6 1 .0 1-87 0 .1 1 .2 2 .0 1 .5 0 .1 1-87 2 8 8 .9 3-86 2-87 ______________________________________________________________________ 1967 » 100 1 .1 1 .4 1 .9 1 .4 1 .3 1 .9 2 8 9 .1 2 90 .1 4 .2 2 9 0 .2 0 .4 2 .7 2 .2 1 .8 0 .6 0 .8 3 .2 2 .9 2 .7 2 .2 3 .1 5 .5 2 .8 2 .5 1 .9 2 .4 3 .1 2 9 0 .4 2 9 1 .7 2 9 1 .9 0 .8 3 .1 3 .1 2 .8 3 .5 4 .3 3 .8 6 .8 3 .6 3 .6 3 .5 4 .1 4 .9 4 .7 6 .8 6 .7 2 .4 3 .6 3 .4 3 .4 3 .3 3 .8 4 .4 4 .2 5 .3 4 .6 2 .5 2 .6 2 .6 3 .7 3 .6 3 .6 3 .5 4 .0 4 .5 4 .3 5 .2 4 .7 3 .7 5 .0 2 .8 2 .5 2 .5 3 .6 3 .4 3 .5 3 .4 3 .7 4 .2 3 .9 4 .6 4 .0 3 .2 3 .5 2 .0 2 .1 2 .6 2 .4 2 .4 3 .3 3 .2 3 .1 3 .0 3 .3 3 .6 3 .4 3 .8 3 .2 2 .4 2 .3 1 .0 0 .0 1 .5 2 .2 2 .7 2 .5 2 .5 3 .3 3 .1 3 .4 3 .6 3 *4 3 .8 3 .3 2 .6 2 .7 1 .9 1 .8 3 .7 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-8 6 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 6-87 T-#7 §-«7 0 .6 1 .6 2 .3 2 .0 l.l 2 .0 2 .7 2 .4 5-87 1 .2 2 .0 2 .7 2 .4 6-87 1 .4 2 .2 2 .8 f® • r* 3 .3 3 .7 3-87 4-87 1 .4 2 .2 8-87 1 .3 9-87 ♦DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS ACO R E V IS E O 8-86 9 -8 6 2 9 3 .5 2 9 5 .1 4-87 2 9 5 .7 2 9 6 .9 2 9 7 .4 2 9 7 .4 2 9 8 .3 TO R E F L E C T LA TE R EP O R T IN G IH ^ A A W h i « D » f lr * iS E * V E T F A * « OF ST. LOUIS OCTOBER 16» 4 1987_________________________________ RATIO PRICES SCALE C O NSUH t* P R IC E INDEX C P I- U DATA B E G IN N IN G DATA PLOTTEDt IN D IC A T E D . SEPTEM B ER PR EPA RED BY F E D E JU L ratio scale PRODUCER 1967-100 RESERVE PRICES DATA PLO T TED : BAN« Of ST. ratio L O U IS scale 1967-100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PERC EN TAG ES ARE ANNUAL RA TES OF CHANGE FOR PE R IO D S L A TEST SCALE I S FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS ( C r i - U ) , 1993 INCORPORATE A RENTAL EQ U IVA LEN C E MEASURE FOR H OM COIH ERSH IP CO STS. PERC EN TAG ES ARE ANNUAL R ATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S LA TEST RATIO IN D IC A TED . SEPTEM BER PR EPA RED I Y 5 FED ERAL R ESER VE BANK OF S T . L O U IS PRODUCER P R IC E IN D E T , F IN IS H E D CONSUMER FOODS - SEASO N ALLY A D JU ST ED * ______________________________________________________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R A T ES O f CHANCE_______,______________________________________________ ___________________ WQNTH_________________________________________________________________________ 196 7_-_10 0 MONTH 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6 -86 7-86 8-06 9-86 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-8? 2-81 3-87 4—87 5-87 6-87 -4 1 at I f ftWIttAL________________________________________________ INITIAL 8-87 2 7 0 .5 3-86 2 .2 4-86 3 .8 5 .5 5-86 8 .4 1 1 .6 18.1 6-86 6 .7 0 .2 9 .6 1 .0 2 7 5 .9 2 7 9 .6 2 7 1 .7 2 7 5 .5 7-86 8 .7 1 0 .4 12.1 9 .3 8-86 1 0.2 1 1 .9 1 3 .6 1 2 .1 1 7 .7 1 8.1 9-86 8 .6 9 .7 1 0 .6 8 .7 1 1 .2 8 .2 - 0 .8 10-86 9 .0 1 0 .0 1 0 .7 9 .3 1 1 .3 9 .3 5 .2 1 1 .6 11-86 7 .6 8 .3 8 .7 7 .2 0 .4 2 .6 4 .3 - 2 .5 12-86 6 .3 6 .7 6 .9 5 .3 6 .0 3 .8 0 .5 1 .0 - 3 .9 - 5 .3 1-87 3 .6 3 .8 3 .6 1 .9 1 .9 - 0 .4 - 3 .0 - 4 .5 - 9 .3 - 1 2 .5 - 1 9 .2 2-87 3 .3 3 .4 3 .1 1 .6 1 .6 - 0 .5 - 3 .3 - 3 .8 - 7 .3 - 8 .8 - 1 0 .5 - 0 .9 1 7 .3 2 8 3 .5 2 8 3 .3 2 8 5 .9 2 8 5 .3 2 8 4 .0 2 7 9 .0 2 7 8 .8 2 79 .1 3—87 3 .1 3 .2 3 .0 1 .6 1 .3 - 0 .3 - 2 .6 - 2 .9 - 5 .6 - 6 .4 - 6 .7 0 .2 1 .3 4-87 4 .1 4 .3 4 .2 3 .0 3 .1 1 .7 - 0 .2 - 0 .1 - 1 .9 - 1 .8 - 0 .9 6 .0 9 .6 1 8 .6 5-87 5 .1 5 .3 5 .3 4 .2 4 .5 3 .3 1 .7 2 .1 0 .8 1 .3 2 .7 9 .1 1 2 .6 1 8 .7 1 8 .8 2 83 .1 2 8 7 .2 5 .1 5 .3 5 .3 4 .4 4 .6 2 .2 2 .5 1 .4 2 .0 3 .3 8 .5 1 0 .9 1 4 .3 1 2 .2 6 .0 4 .4 4 .5 4 .5 3 .6 3 .7 1 .3 1 .6 0 .5 0 .9 1*8 5 .8 7 .2 8 .7 5 .6 - 0 .4 - 6 .5 2 8 7 .0 —0 . 4 2 .7 3 .3 3 .6 0 .2 - 5 .3 - 1 0 .5 - 1 4 .4 2 8 3 .3 1 .1 4 .0 4 .7 5 .3 2 .8 - 0 .8 - 3 .0 - 1 .2 1 4 .0 V O 2 8 8 .6 6-87 7-87 1-07 2-37 3-8t 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-07 8-87 3 .3 3 .3 3 .2 2 .3 2 .3 1 .2 - 0 .1 0 .0 - l.l - 0 .9 9-87 3 .0 3 .9 3 .8 3 .0 3 .0 2«-1 0 .9 1.1 0 .2 0 .5 2-06 3-86 4-06 5-06 6-86 7-86 0-86 9-86 10-86 11-86 2 8 6 .4 INITIAL MONTH ♦DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO R E V IS E D TO R E F L E C T LATE REPORT IN € p*E*A*£6 6 t FEOEAAL AESEAVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS OCTOBER 16, 1 9 8 7 ____________________________________ PRODUCER P R IC E INDEX* FIN IS H ED GOOOS, EXCLUOINC FOOOS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED* _______________________________________________ LflflfQUNPEP AHHUAL RAT« Of CHAttiE________________________________________________ 1EM1NAL________________________________________________ IM ITIAL. ffOWlij _________________________________________________ l^ T ■ 100 MONTH 2-06 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 10-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-07 7-87 8-87 2 9 2 .7 3-86 - 1 4 .0 4—86 - 1 1 .7 - 9 .4 5-86 - 7 .2 - 3 .6 2 .5 6—06 - 4 .9 - 1 .6 2 .5 7-06 - 7 .4 - 5 .6 - 4 .3 - 7 .6 - 1 6 .7 8-86 - 6 .1 - 4 .5 - 3 .2 - 5 .0 - 8 .5 0 .4 9-86 - 4 .6 - 2 .9 - 1 .6 - 2 .6 - 4 .2 2 .7 5 .1 10-06 - 3 .8 - 2 .3 - 1 .0 - 1 .7 - 2 .8 2 .4 3 .4 1 .7 11-86 - 3 .2 - 1 .7 - 0 .6 - l.l - 1 .8 2 .3 3 .0 1 .9 2 .1 - l.l 2*4 2 .8 2 .1 2 .3 4 .4 12-06 11-86 - 2 .6 - 1 .3 1-07 - 1 .1 0 .3 2-07 - 0 .9 0 .4 2 9 0 .3 2 9 0 .9 2 9 1 .5 2 .5 - 0 .2 - 0 .6 1 .3 1 .1 1 .4 1 .3 1 .2 287 .1 2 8 7 .2 2 8 8 .4 2 8 8 .8 2 8 9 .3 2 8 9 .9 2 .5 2 9 3 .4 5 .3 5 .3 6 .5 8 .8 1 5 .5 4 .6 4 .6 5 .3 6 .4 8 .3 1 .6 5 .2 5 .3 6 .0 7 .0 8 .5 5 .2 2 9 3 .8 2 9 5 .9 3-07 - 0 .2 1 .1 2.1 2 .1 2 .0 4 *6 4-07 0 .1 1 .2 2 .2 2 .1 2 .1 4 .4 4 .9 4 .9 5 .5 6 .2 7 .1 4 .4 5 .9 2 .9 5-07 - 0 .1 0 .9 1 .8 1 .7 1 .6 3 .7 4 .1 3 .9 4 .3 4 .6 5 .0 2 .6 2 .9 0 .0 - 2 .8 6-07 0 .2 1 .2 2 .0 2 .0 1 .9 3 .8 4 .2 4 .0 4 .3 4 .7 5 .0 3 .1 3 .4 1 .6 1 .0 3 .9 7-07 0 .5 1 .4 2 .2 2 .2 2 .2 8-87 0 .7 1 .7 2 .4 2 .4 2 .4 9-07 0 .7 1 .6 2 .3 2 .3 2 .3 2-86 3—86 4-86 5-86 6-86 8 .9 2 9 6 .6 2 9 5 .9 5 .0 2 97 .1 4 .2 4 .1 4 .4 4 .7 5 .0 3 .4 3 .7 2 .5 2 .3 5 .0 5 .0 4 .4 4 .3 4 .5 4 .8 5 .1 3 .7 4 .1 3 .1 3 .2 5 .2 5 .4 5 .8 3 .8 4 .0 4 .0 4 .2 4 .4 4 .6 3 .3 3 .5 2 .7 2 .6 4 .0 3 .7 3 .1 0 .4 7 -8 6 8-86 9 -86 10—86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-17 2 9 8 .3 2 9 9 .7 2 9 9 .8 ♦OATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO REVISCO TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING TffEFAREO BY F E DERAL RESERVE "BANK OF I T. LO U IS OCTOBER 16« 1987____________________________ 6 INDUSTRIAL RATIO RATIO 1 9 7 7- 1 00 1979 * P RODUCT I O N * SCALE ADJUSTED seasonally 1980 1981 1982 1983 SCALE 1 97 7 - 1 0 0 1984 1985 1986 1987 REVISED FROM 1985. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: SEPTEMBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESER VE BANK OF ST. LO U IS IN D U STR IA L H tO O U C T lO ff* COHeOUttOEP ANNUAL RATES O f CHAMCE IN IT IA L TERM IN A L MONTH 2-86 3-86 - 1 4 .3 4-86 - 3 .8 3-86 4—86 5-86 6—86 7-86 8-86 9-8 6 10—86 11-86 1977 * MONTH 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 100 8-87 123 .9 124.7 8 .0 124.3 5-86 - 3 .8 2 .0 - 3 .8 6-86 - 3 .3 0 .6 - 2 .9 - 1 .9 7-86 - 1 .3 2 .2 0 .3 2 .4 124.1 7 .0 124.8 124 .9 8-86 - 1 .0 1 .9 0 .5 1 .9 3 .9 1 .0 9-86 - 1 .4 1 .0 —0 .4 0 .5 1 .3 - 1 .4 - 3 .8 10-86 - 0 .2 1 .9 1 .0 1 .9 2 .9 1 .6 1 .9 8 .0 11-86 0 .2 2 .2 1 .4 2 .3 3 .1 2 .2 2 .6 5 .9 3 .9 124 .5 125 .3 1 25 .7 126.8 12-86 1 .2 3 .1 2 .5 3 .5 4 .4 3 .9 4 .6 7 .6 7 .4 1 1 .0 1-87 0 .6 2 .2 1 .6 2 .3 2 .9 2 .3 2 .5 4 .2 2 .9 2 .4 - 5 .5 2-87 1 .3 2 .8 2 .3 3 .0 3 .6 3 .2 3 .6 5 .1 4 .4 4 .5 1 .4 8 .9 3-87 1 .4 2 .8 2 .4 3 .0 3 .6 3.1 3 .5 4 .7 4 .1 4 .1 1 .9 5 .8 126.2 127.1 127 .4 2 .9 127.4 4-87 1 .3 2 .6 2 .2 2 .7 3 .2 2 .8 3 .0 4 .0 3 .4 3 .3 1 .4 3 .9 1 .4 0 .0 5-87 1 .7 3 .0 2 .6 3 .1 3 .6 3 .3 3 .5 4 .5 4 .0 4 .0 2 .7 4 .8 3 .5 3 .8 7 .8 5 .6 4 .8 5 .4 8 .3 8 .8 6-87 2 .1 3 .3 3 .0 3 .6 4 .0 3 .8 4 .0 5 .0 4*6 4 .T 3 .7 128.2 129.1 7-87 2 .9 4 .0 3 .8 4 .3 4 .8 4 .6 5 .0 5 .9 5 .7 5 .9 5 .2 7 .1 6 .7 7 .7 1 0 .4 1 1 .8 1 4 .9 8-87 2 .9 4 .0 3 .8 4 .3 4 .7 4 .6 4 .9 5 .7 5 .5 5 .7 5 .0 6 .6 6 .2 6 .9 8 .7 9 .0 9 .2 3 .7 1 31 .0 P 9-87 2*8 3 .9 3*7 4*1 4 .6 4 .4 4 .6 5 .4 5 .1 5 .3 4 .7 6 .0 5 .6 6 .1 7 .3 7 .2 6 .7 2 .8 ___ 1 .8 1 3 1 .2P 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-Ö6 1Ö-Ö6 11-06 l2 - * 6 1-87 2-87 3—87 4-87 5-87 6-87 IN IT IA L 130 .6 7-87 8-*87 MONTH « R E V IS E D FROM 1985 p- p r e l i m i n a r y PR EPA R ED BY FED ER A L R E S E R V E OCTOBER 16* 19B7 7 BANK OF S I . L O U IS PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS MONTHLY OF DOLLARS T OT A L S I NCOME AT SEASONALLY ANNUAL RATIO RATES TRILLIONS ADJUSTED OF SCALE DOLLARS 4. 2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2. 6 2.4 2 .2 2.0 1.8 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 SOURCE: U .S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: SEPTEMBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS COMPOUNDED PERSONAL INCOME ANNUAL RATES QF CHANGE INITIAL _ J r: 9. MJL.WAJ MONTH 2- 86 3-86 6.5 4- 86 11. 2 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-06 8-86 9-86 10- 86 1 1- 8 6 B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES MONTH 12-8 6 1-87 2- 07 3- 87 4 - 87 5-8 7 6- 8 7 7- 07 0-07 3 ,4 0 2 .1 3 ,5 2 5 .0 16. 1 3 »5 25.9 5- 86 7.4 7.8 0*0 6- 86 5.7 5. 4 0.4 0.8 7- 86 5.4 5. 1 1.7 2.5 3 ,5 2 0 .1 3 ,5 4 0 .3 4.2 3 ,5 5 2 .9 3- 86 5.2 4.9 2 ♦3 3. 1 4*3 4.4 9- 86 5.2 5. 0 2. 9 3.6 4.5 4.7 5.0 10-86 5.0 4.7 3.0 3.5 4.3 4.3 4.2 11-86 4.9 4-7 3. 2 3.7 4*3 ^»3 4.3 3.9 4*4 12-86 5. 2 5.0 3. 7 4.3 4.9 5.0 5.2 5.2 6.1 7.9 1-87 5.3 5.2 4.0 4. 5 5. 1 5.2 5.4 5.5 6.2 7.1 6.3 2- 8 7 6.0 5. 9 5.0 5.5 6. 1 6.4 6.8 7.1 8. 1 9.3 10.1 3 ,5 6 7 .5 3,5 7 7 .5 3.4 3 ,5 9 0 .3 3 ,6 1 3 .0 3 ,6 3 1 .5 13.9 3 ,6 7 1 .2 3- 87 5.8 5. 8 4.9 5.4 5.9 6. 1 6.4 6.6 7.3 8.0 8.0 8.9 4.1 4 - 87 5. 9 5. 8 5.0 5.5 5.9 6.1 6.4 6.5 7.1 7.6 7.6 8.0 5.1 6.2 3 ,6 0 3 .4 3 ,7 0 1 .9 5-87 5.6 5.5 4.8 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.9 6.0 6.4 6.7 6.5 6.5 4.1 4.2 2.2 6- 87 5.4 5.3 4.6 4.9 5.3 5.4 5. 5 5.6 5.8 6.0 5.7 5 .6 3.6 3.5 2.2 2.2 7-87 5.5 5.4 4.8 5.1 5.5 5.6 5.7 5.7 6 .0 6.2 6.0 5.9 4.4 4.4 3.9 4.7 7.3 8- 87 5.6 5.5 4.9 5.2 5.6 5.7 5.9 5.8 6*1 6.3 6.1 6t I 4.0 4.9 4 .6 5.5 7.1 7.0 9-87 5.7 5.7 5. 1 5.4 5. 8 5.9 6.0 6.1 6.3 6.5 6 .3 6.3 5.3 5.5 5.4 6.2 7.6 7.7 0.4 2- 86 3-86 4-a6 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-8 6 9-86 10 - 8 6 1 1- 0 6 12 - 0 6 1-87 2- 8 7 3-87 4-87 5- 0 7 6-87 7-87 0-07 IN ITIAL P- 3,7 0 0 .5 3 ,7 1 5 .3 3 ,7 3 7 .2 3 ,7 5 8 .2 3 ,7 0 3 .6 P MONTH PR ELIM IN ARY PR EPA RED BY OCTOBER 2 6 , 8 FE DER AL 1907 RESER VE BANK OF ST. LÔUÎS RETAIL RATIO SALES RATIO SCALE B I L L I ONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY B I L L I ONS ADJ USTED OF SC A L E DOLLARS I 45 140 135 130 125 1 20 1 15 1 10 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 SOURCE: U .S . DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: AUGUST, SEPTEMBER ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS RETAIL SALES CO*POUNP€P ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE M IL L IO N S OF M UARS IN IT I A L HQWTH MONTH 1 <6 CD 3-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 10-66 11-66 12-66 1-67 2—67 3-67 4-67 5-67 6-67 7-67 6-67 117*259 - 3 .3 116*113 4-86 2 .7 9 .1 5-86 6 .7 1 2 .1 1 5 .1 6-86 5 .2 8 .2 7 .8 1 .0 7-86 6 .0 8 .5 6 .3 5 .0 9 .1 8-86 7 .2 9 .4 9 .5 7 .7 1 1 .2 119*507 119*605 120*478 1 3 .3 121*735 129*118 9-86 1 7 .4 2 1 .2 2 3 .8 2 6 .1 3 5 .6 5 1 .5 10-66 5 .8 7 .2 6 .9 5 .3 6 .4 5 .6 1 .9 - 4 8 .8 11-86 4 .7 5 .7 5 .2 3 .7 4 .2 3 .0 - 0 . 2 - 3 0 .0 1 0 2 .7 122*121 - 4 .3 121*678 3 0 .2 127*613 12-86 1 0 .3 1 1 .9 1 2 .3 1 1 .9 1 3 .8 1 4 .8 1 5 .2 - 4 .6 1-87 0 .9 1 .4 0 .5 - 1 .2 - 1 .5 - 3 .1 - 6 .1 - 2 2 .5 2-87 5 .7 6 .5 6 .3 5 .4 5 .9 5 .5 4 .2 - 8 .8 5 .4 6 .8 - 1 4 .7 7 5 .7 3-87 5 .5 6 .3 6 .0 5 .1 5 .6 5 .2 4 .1 - 6 .9 4 .9 7 .4 - 9 .1 3 4 .6 3 .1 4-87 5 .3 6 .0 5 .8 5 .0 5 .4 5 .0 4 .0 - 5 .5 4 .7 6 .6 —6 . 1 2 3 .3 3 .3 3 .6 5-87 4 .9 5 .5 5 .3 4 .5 4 .6 4 .4 3 .4 - 4 .9 3 .9 5 .3 - 5 .1 1 6 .8 1 .9 1 .3 - 0 .9 6-87 5 .5 6 .1 5 .9 5 .2 5 .6 5 .3 4 .5 - 2 .9 5 .2 6 .6 - 2 .0 1 6 .4 5 .0 5 .6 6 .6 1 4 .8 7 7 .1 118*579 - I I . 1 - 1 4 .3 - 5 8 .6 124*260 124*593 124*960 124*867 126*307 127*061 7-87 5 .6 6 .2 6 .0 5 .4 5 .7 5 .5 4 .8 - 1 .9 5 .4 6 .7 - 0 .7 1 4 .8 5 .5 6 .1 6 .9 1 1 .0 7 .4 8-87 6 .5 7 .1 7 .0 6 .5 6 .9 6 .7 6 .2 0 .1 7 .1 8 .4 2 .0 1 5 .9 8 .2 9 .2 1 0 .7 1 4 .9 1 4 .9 2 2 .9 9-87 5 .9 6 .4 6 .3 5 .8 6 .1 5 .9 5 .3 - 0 .3 5 .9 7 .0 1 .2 1 3 .2 6 .3 6 .8 7 .5 9 .6 8 .0 8 .3 - 4 .6 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-06 6-86 9-06 T O - 8 6 il- é 6 12-66 1-87 2-67 5-87 4-87 5-07 6-87 7-8 f 8-87 129*267P 128*7605 IN IT IA L HÖNTH P- P R E L IM IN A R Y 6- E ST IM A T ED “ P R EP A R ED BY FED ER A L R E S E R V E OCTOBER 15* 1967 9 BAN* OF S I . t U U T S ' HOURLY COMPENSATION* co m po unded annual IN IT IA L TERM INAL QUARTER 3-82 4-82 4*4 1-83 4 .1 4-82 1-83 2 -83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 B U S IN E S S SECTOR o f CHANGE rates 1977*100 QUARTER 4 -84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2 -86 3-36 4 -86 1-87 1 5 4 .3 1 5 9 .8 3 .8 1 6 0 .6 2-83 3 .6 3 .2 2 .5 3-83 3 .1 2 .6 2 .0 1 .5 4-83 3 .6 3 .3 3 .2 3 .5 1 6 1 .4 5 .6 1 6 3 .6 1 6 5 .6 1-84 3 .9 3 .8 3 .8 4 .2 5 .5 5 .5 2-84 3 .7 3 .6 3 .5 3 .8 4 .6 4 .1 2 .7 3-84 3 .8 3 .7 3 .7 3 .9 4 .5 4 .2 3 .5 4-84 3 .8 3 .7 3 .7 3 .9 4 .4 4 .1 3 .6 4 .1 3 .8 1-85 3 .9 3 .9 3 .9 4 .1 4 .5 4 .3 4 .0 4 .4 4 .4 5 .0 2-85 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 4 .2 4 .6 4 .4 4 .2 4 .6 4 .7 5 .1 4 .2 4 .4 4 .7 4 .6 1 6 6 .9 1 6 8 .7 4 .4 1 7 0 .3 1 7 2 .4 5 .2 1 7 4 .6 1 7 7 .0 3-85 4 .2 4 .1 4 .5 4 .8 4 .9 5 .3 5 .4 4-85 4 .3 4 .2 4 .3 4 .5 4 .8 4 .7 4 .6 4 .9 5 .0 5 .3 5 .4 5 .5 5 .3 1-86 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .3 4 .6 4 .5 4 .4 4 .6 4 .7 4 .9 4 .8 4 .7 4 .2 2-86 4 .1 4 .1 4 .1 4 .3 4 .5 4 .4 4 .3 4 .5 4 .5 4 .6 4 .5 4 .4 3 .9 3 .3 3 .4 3-86 4 .1 4 .0 4 .0 4 .2 4 .4 4 .3 4 .2 4 .3 4 .3 4 .4 4 .3 4 .1 3 .7 3 .2 3 .2 4-86 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 4 .1 4 .3 4 .2 4 .1 4 .2 4 .2 4 .3 4 .2 4 .0 3 .7 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3 .5 1-87 3 .9 3 .8 3 .8 3 .9 4 .1 4 .0 3 .9 4 .0 3 .9 3 .9 3 .8 3 .6 3 .3 2 .9 2 .8 2 .6 2 .4 1 .3 2-87 3 .8 3 .8 3 .8 3 .9 4 .0 3 .9 3 .8 3 .9 3 .9 3 .9 3 .8 3 .6 3 .3 3 .0 2 .9 2 .8 2 .7 2 .3 3 .3 3-82 4-82 1-83 2 -83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 5 .6 1 7 9 .3 1 8 0 .7 3 .2 1 8 2 .2 1 6 3 .6 3 .1 1 85 .2 1 8 5 .8 1 8 7 .3 INITIAL (WMftTÉft PA EPAAÉD BY FED ERA L R E S E R V E BANK OF 5 T • L O U IS AUGUST 31* 1987___________________________________________ OUTPUT PER HOUR OF ALL PERSONS* BUSINESS SECTOR _______________________________________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES O f CHANCE_______________________________________________________ TERMINAL________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________ ________________________________________________19T7M Q 0 QUARTER 3-66 4-86 1-87 1-86 2-86 3-85 4-85 1-85 2-85 3-8 3 4-83 1-84 1-83 2-84 4-84 4-82 3-84 2-83 3-82 1 0 1 .0 4-82 3 .2 1-83 3 .4 3 .6 2-83 4 .3 4 .6 6 .0 3-83 2 .8 2 .6 2 .2 - 1 .5 4-83 2 .8 2 .7 2 .4 0 .6 2 .7 1 0 1 .9 1 03 .4 1 03 .0 1 03 .7 1 05.1 1-84 3 .2 3 .2 3.1 2 .2 4 .1 5 .5 2-84 3 .0 3 .0 2 .9 2 .1 3 .4 3 .7 1 .9 3-84 2 .6 2 .5 2 .3 1 .6 2 .4 2 .3 0 .6 - 0 .4 4-84 2 .5 2 .4 2 .2 1 .6 2 .2 2 .1 1 .0 0 .6 1 .5 1-85 2 .5 2 .4 2 .2 1 .7 2 .3 2 .2 1 .3 1.1 1 .9 2 .3 1 .6 1 .5 2 .7 1 0 5 .6 105 .5 1 0 5 .9 106 .5 107 .2 2-85 2 .5 2 .4 2 .3 1 .6 2 .3 2 .2 2 .2 2 .5 3-85 2 .6 2 .5 2 .4 2 .0 2 .5 2 .5 2 .0 2 .0 2 .6 2 .9 3 .2 3 .8 4-85 2 .3 2 .2 2 .1 1 .7 2 .1 2 .0 1 .5 1 .4 1 .8 1 .9 1 .6 1 .3 - 1 .1 2 .4 2 .1 2 .5 2 .4 2.1 2 .1 2 .5 2 .7 2 .8 2 .9 2 .4 6 .1 1 08 .2 1 0 7 .9 1 0 9 .5 1-86 2 .6 2 .5 2-86 2 .4 2 .4 2 .3 2 .0 2 .3 2 .3 1 .9 1 .9 2 .3 2 .4 2 .4 2 .3 1 .9 3 .4 0 .7 3-86 2 .3 2 .2 2 .1 1 .8 2 .1 2 .0 1 .7 1 .7 1 .9 2 .0 1 .9 1 .8 1 .3 2 .1 0 .2 - 0 .4 2 .1 2 .1 2 .0 1 .7 1 .9 1 .9 1 .5 1 .5 1 .7 1 .7 1 .7 1 .5 1 .0 1*6 0 .1 - 0 .2 1 .3 0 .2 0 .0 0 .2 0 .4 4-86 1 09 .7 1 0 9 .6 1 0 9 .6 0 .0 1 09 .7 1-87 2 .0 2 .0 1 .9 1 .6 1 .8 1 .7 1 .4 1 .4 1•6 1 .6 1 .5 1 .3 0 .9 2-87 2 .0 1 .9 1 .8 1 .6 1 .8 1 .7 1*4 1 .4 1 .5 1 .5 1 .4 1 .3 0 .9 1 .3 0 .4 0 .3 0 .5 0 .7 1 .1 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-05 1-86 2-86 3-#6 4-86 1-87 110 .0 IN Í T I ÍT (1UAIT Eft PREPARED BY"FEÜERAL RESERVE BANK- OF 51^ L O U IS AUGUST 31* 10 1987____________________________________________ PRODUCTIVITY, RAT I 0 COMPENSATION, AND LABOR COSTS SCALE RAT I 0 1977-100 SE A S O N A LL Y 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 SOURCE. PERC EN T A G ES ARE AMHUAL RATES Of CHANGE FOR PE R IO D S LA T E ST DATA PLO T TED : SCALE 19 77-100 ADJUSTED 1986 U .S . 1987 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR IN D IC A TED . 2ND OUAJtTER PREPA RED »Y FED ERAL R E S E R V E IA N K Of ST. L O U IS U N IT LABOR COSTS» B U S IN E S S SECTOR COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE TERM INAL QUARTER IN IT IA L 4-82 1-83 2-83 1 CD M 3-82 1 .5 1-83 0 .8 0 .0 2-83 - 0 .6 - 1 .7 - 3 .3 3-83 0 .3 - 0 .1 - 0 .1 3 .1 4-83 0 .8 0 .6 0 .8 2 .8 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 1977*100 QUARTER 1 1-85 4-84 2-85 3-85 4 -85 1-86 2—66 3-86 4 -8 6 1-87 1 5 6 .8 1 5 6 .8 1 5 5 .5 1 5 6 .7 1 5 7 .7 2 .6 1-84 0 .7 0 .5 0 .6 2 .0 1 .4 0 .3 2-84 0 .7 0 .5 0 .6 1 .6 1.1 0 .4 0 .5 3-84 1 .2 1*1 1 .3 2 .3 2 .0 1 .9 2 .7 1 5 7 .8 1 5 8 .0 4 .9 1 5 9 .9 4-84 1 .3 1 .3 1 .4 2 .3 2 .1 2 .0 2 .5 3 .6 2 .3 1-85 1 .4 1 .4 1 .6 2 .3 2 .2 2 .1 2 .6 3 .3 2 .5 2 .8 OD 1 rg 1 .5 1 .5 1 .7 2 .3 2 .2 2 .1 2 .5 3 .0 2 .4 2 .5 1 6 0 .8 1 6 1 .9 2 .2 1 6 2 .8 3-85 1 .6 1 .6 1 .7 2 .3 2 .2 2 .1 2 .4 2 .8 2 .3 2 .3 2 .1 2 .0 4-85 1 .9 1 .9 2 .1 2 .7 2 .6 2 .6 3 .0 3 .4 3 .1 3 .3 3 .5 4 .1 6 .3 1-86 1 .6 1 .6 1 .7 2 .2 2 .1 2 .0 2 .3 2 .5 2 .1 2 .1 1 .9 1 .8 1 .7 - 2 .6 1 6 3 .6 1 66 .1 1 6 5 .0 2-86 1 .7 1 .7 1 .8 2 .2 2 .2 2 .1 2 .3 2 .6 2 .2 2 .2 2 .1 2 .1 2 .1 0 .1 2 .9 3-96 1 .8 1 .8 1 .9 2 .3 2 .2 2 .2 2 .4 2 .6 2 .3 2 .4 2 .3 2 .3 2 .4 1 .1 3 .1 3 .2 4-86 1 .9 1 .9 2 .0 2 .4 2 .4 2 .3 2 .5 2 .7 2 .5 2 .5 2 .5 2 .5 2 .6 1 .7 3 .2 3 .4 3 .6 1-87 1 .8 1 .8 2.X) 2 .3 2 .3 2 .2 2 .4 2 .6 2 .3 2 .3 2 .3 2 .3 2 .3 1 .6 2 .7 2 .6 2 .3 1 .0 2-87 1 .8 1 .8 1 .9 2 .3 2 .2 2 .2 2 .4 2 .5 2 .3 2 .3 2 .2 2 .2 2 .3 1 .6 2 .5 2 .4 2 .2 1 .4 1 .9 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3^84 4H34 1-85 2-85 3-05 4-85 1^86 2-86 3-86 4^ÏÏ6 1-87 --------- I N I T I A L 1 6 6 .2 1 6 7 .5 1 6 9 .0 1 6 9 .4 1 7 0 .2 QUARTS P ftÉ P Â *ÉÔ BV PEÔÉtfAt ftCSÉRVr BANK O r S T . AUGUST 31» 1987_________________ 11 LOUIS CROSS NATIONAL PROOUCT IN CURRENT OOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R ATES O f CHANCE________ B IL L IO N S IN IT IA L 1-83 2-83 3-83 1-83 6 .8 2-83 9 .9 1 3 .0 3-83 9 .7 1 1 .2 9 .4 4-83 1 0 .4 1 1 .6 1 0 .9 1 2 .4 4-8 3 1-84 2-04 3-84 4-84 1-05 2—85_ 3-85 1-06 4-85 «0 1 .4-8.2 OF QUARTER QUARTER 3-86 4-86 1-87 " A lim i 2-87 RATE5 3 * 2 6 5 .8 3 » 3 6 7 .4 3 * 4 4 3 .9 3 * 5 4 5 .8 1 1 .4 1 2 .5 1 2 .4 1 3 .9 1 5 .4 1 0 .9 1 1 .8 1 1 .5 1 2 .2 1 2 .1 8 .9 3—84 1 0 .2 1 0 .8 1 0.3 1 0 .6 1 0 .0 7 .4 5 .8 4-84 9 .5 9 .9 9 .4 9 .4 8 .6 6 .5 5 .3 1-85 9 .3 9 .6 9 .1 9 .0 8 .4 6 .7 2-85 8 .9 9 .1 8 .6 8 .5 7 .9 6 .5 5 .0 5 .8 6 .4 5 .5 3-85 8 .7 8 .9 8 .5 8 .3 7 .8 6 .6 6 .1 6 .1 6 .6 6 .3 4-85 8 .5 8 .7 8 .2 8 .1 7 .6 6 .5 6 .1 6 .2 6 .6 6 .3 6 .7 6 .3 1-86 8 .4 8 .5 8 .1 8 .0 7 .5 6 .6 6 .3 6 .3 6 .6 6 .5 6 .8 6 .7 7 .0 2-86 8 .0 8 .1 7 .7 7 .6 7 .1 6 .2 5 .9 5 .9 6 .1 5 .9 6 .0 5 .6 5 .3 3 .6 3-86 7 .9 7 .9 7 .5 7 .4 7 .0 6 .1 5 .8 6 .0 5 .8 5 .0 5 .5 5 .3 4 .4 5 .3 3 «D t <4* 3 * 6 7 4 .9 1-84 2-84 7 .5 7 .5 7 .1 7 .0 6 .5 5 .8 5 .5 5 .4 5 .5 5 .2 5 .2 4 .8 4 .5 3 .6 3 .7 2 .1 1-87 7 .6 7 .6 7 .2 7 .1 6 .7 6 .0 5 .7 5 .7 5 .9 5 .7 5 .7 5 .5 5 .3 4 .9 5 .3 5 .3 8 .6 2-87 7 .5 7 .5 7 .2 7 .0 6 .7 6 .0 5 .8 5 .9 5 .7 5 .8 5 .6 5 .5 5 .2 5 .5 5 .6 7 .5 6 .3 3-87 7 .4 7 .4 7. 1 7 .0 6 .6 6 .0 5 .8 5 .9 5 .8 5 .8 5 .7 5 .6 5 .3 5 .7 5 .8 7 .0 6 .2 6 .2 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-06 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3 *7 5 4 .2 3 * 8 0 7 .9 4 .7 6 .0 2-84 3 *0 5 1 .8 7 .4 3 * 9 2 1 .1 3 * 9 7 3 .6 7 .1 4 * 0 4 2 .0 4 * 1 0 4 .4 4 * 1 7 4 .4 4 * 2 1 1 .6 4 * 2 6 5 .9 4 *2 8 6 .1 4 * 3 7 7 .7 4 * 4 4 5 .1 4 * 5 1 2 .0 TftEPAftFfl BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF"ST. LOUIS OCTOBER 23* 1987 CROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1902 OOLLARS ____COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R A T ES QF CHANCE_____ IN IT IA L B l U I O k S OF OOLLARS An n u a l R ATES QUARTER QUARTER 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 3 .5 2-83 6 .4 9 .3 3-83 6 .3 7 .7 6 .0 4-83 6 .5 7 .5 6 .7 7 .3 1-84 7 .3 8 .3 8 .0 9 .0 1 0 .7 7 .7 7 .4 7 .8 8 .1 5 .5 2-84 2-04 3-84 4-04 1-05 2-85 3-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3 *2 5 8 .3 3 * 3 0 6 .4 3 *3 6 5 .1 3 * 4 5 1 .7 3 * 4 9 8 .0 3 * 5 2 0 .6 3-84 6#^ 6 .9 6 .4 6 .5 6 .2 4 .0 2 .6 4-84 5 .8 6. 1 5 .6 5 .5 5. 1 3 .2 2 .1 1 .7 1-85 5 .8 5 .3 5 .2 4 .8 3 .4 2 .7 2 .8 3 .8 2-85 5 .4 4 .9 4 .8 4 .4 3 .1 2 .5 2 .5 3 .0 2 .1 3 * 5 3 5 .2 3 * 5 6 8 .7 3 * 5 8 7 .1 3 * 6 2 3 .0 3-85 5 .1 5 .3 4 .8 4 .7 4 .3 3 .3 2 .0 2 .9 3 .3 3 .1 4 .1 4-85 4 .9 5 .1 4 .7 4 .5 4 .2 3 .3 2 .9 3 .0 3 .3 3 .1 3 .6 3 .1 5 .1 4 .7 4 .6 4 .3 3 .5 3 .2 3 .3 3 .7 3 .6 4 .2 4 .2 1-86 4-85 3 * 1 8 6 .6 1-83 3 * 6 5 0 .9 3 * 6 9 0 .8 5 .4 3 * 7 0 4 .7 2-0 6 4 .7 4 .7 4 .4 4 .2 3 .9 3 .2 2 .9 3 .0 3 .2 3 .0 3 .3 3 .0 3 .0 0 .6 3-86 4 .4 4 .5 4 .1 4 .0 3 .7 3 .0 2 .7 2 .8 2 .9 2 .0 2 .9 2 .6 2 .5 1 .0 1 .4 4-86 4 .2 4 .3 4 .0 3 .8 3 .5 2 .9 2 .6 2 .6 2 .7 2 .6 2 .7 2 .4 2 .2 1 .2 1 .5 1 .5 1-87 4 .3 4 .3 4 .0 3 .8 3 .6 3 .0 2 .0 2 .0 2 .9 2 .0 2 .9 2 .7 2 .6 2 .0 2 .4 2 .9 .4 2-87 4 .2 4 .2 3 .9 3 .7 3 .5 3 .0 2 .0 2 .8 2 .9 2 .0 2 .9 2 .7 2 .6 2 .1 2 .4 2 .8 3 .4 2 .5 4 .1 4 .2 3 .9 3 .8 3 .5 3 .0 2 .0 2 .9 3 .0 2 .9 3 .0 2 .8 2 .0 2 .4 2 .7 3 .0 3 .6 3 .2 3 .0 4-62 1-83 2-83 3-03 4-03 1-64 2-04 3-64 4-04 1-05 2-05 3-05 4-05 1-06 2-66 5-86 4-86 1-07 2-07 3-87 3 * 7 1 0 .0 3 * 7 3 1 .5 3 * 7 7 2 .2 3 * 7 9 5 .3 3 * 0 3 1 .2 I MI THU. IQ UARTER "n F T O T F IT T Y - F F U d T O T ir R W V E - B X M K n O F T T r T W rrS OCTOBER 23» 1987 ________________________________________ 12 GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT R A T I O SCALE QUARTERLY TOTAL S AT ANNUAL RA TE S R A T I O SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S SEASON AL LY ADJUSTED T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 8 3. 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 SOURCEt PE RC E N T AG ES LATEST ARE ANNUAL DATA P L O T T E D t RATES OF CHAN6E FOR PE RIODS 3RD QUARTER 1985 U .S . 1986 D EPA RTMENT 1987 OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E D . PRELIMINARY PR EPARED 13 BY F E D E R A L RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS GENERAL RATIO PRICE INDEX* SCALE RATIO 1982-100 1979 *A S USED SCALE 1 98 2-1 00 1980 1981 IN NATIONAL 1982 1983 INCOME ACCOUNTS 1984 1985 SOURCE: U .S . 1986 1987 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PER 10D8 INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt 3RD OUARTER PRELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESER VE BANK OF ST. LO U IS I N f L I C I T P U C E DEFLATOR POft M O S S NATIONAL PftOOUCT ________________________________________________________________________CONMMJNPgP ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE________________________________________________________________________ TE R M I N A L ______________________________________________________________INITIAL QUARTER____________________________________________________________ l9a? * 100 QUARTER 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-6 3 1-84 2-64 3-84 3 .2 2-83 3 .2 3 .2 3-83 3 .3 3 .3 3 .5 4-83 3 .6 3 .6 4 .1 4 .7 1-84 3 .8 3 .9 4 .2 4 .5 4 .2 2-84 3 .6 3 .7 3 .9 4 .0 3 .6 3 .0 3-84 3 .6 3 .7 3 .8 3 .8 3 .6 3 .2 3 .4 4-84 3 .5 3 .6 3 .6 3 .7 3 .4 3 .1 3 .2 3 .0 3 .5 3 .5 3 .6 3 .6 3 .2 3 .2 3 .2 1-15 2-65 3-65 4 -*5 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-66 1-67 2-67 1 0 3 .3 1 0 4 .2 1 0 5 .4 3 .4 1 0 6 .5 1 0 7 .3 106 .2 1 0 9 .0 1 0 9 .9 3 .3 110*6 2-85 3 .5 3 .5 3 .6 3 .6 3 .4 3 .2 3 .3 3 .2 3 .3 3 .3 3-85 3 .4 3 .5 3 .5 3 .5 3 .3 3 .2 3 .2 3 .1 3 .2 3 .1 2 .9 > 1 00 V* 1-85 4-84 1 0 2 .5 1-63 3 .4 3 .4 3 .4 3 .4 3 .3 3 .1 3.1 3 .1 3 .1 3 .0 2 .9 2 .9 1-86 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3 .1 3 .0 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 2 .7 2 .5 2 .3 1 .8 2-86 3 .2 3 .2 3 .2 3 .2 3 .1 3 .0 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 2 .8 2 .6 2 .5 2 .3 2 .9 3-86 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3 .1 3 .0 3 .0 3 .0 3 .0 2 .9 2 .8 2 .8 2 .7 3 .2 3 .6 4-8 6 3 .1 3 .1 3 .1 3 .1 2 .9 2 .8 2 .8 2 .7 2 .7 2 .6 2 .5 2 .4 2 .2 2 .4 2 .1 1 1 1 .6 1 1 2 .4 1 1 2 .9 1 1 3 .7 1 1 4 .7 1 1 4 .9 0 .7 116 .1 1-87 3 .2 3 .2 3 .2 3 .1 3 .0 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 2 .8 2 .8 2 .7 2 .7 2 .6 2 .8 2 .8 2 .5 4 .2 2-87 3 .2 3 .2 3 .2 3 .2 3 .1 3 .0 3 .0 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 3 .0 3 .0 2 .8 3 .9 3 .5 2 .4 2-87 3-87 3 .1 4 -8 * 3 .1 i- è r 3 .1 3 .1 3 .0 2-03 ■ 3-03 4-83 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 2 .8 2 .8 1-84 T - 8 4 3-84 4-^4 1-85 2-85 2 .7 2 .9 2 .9 2 .7 3 .4 2 .9 S-TR "4 - 0 5 1-86 '2 - 8 6 3-86 4-86 1-87 2 .7 117.1 1 1 7 .6 PREPARED 6Y FEDERAL "RÉSERVE BANK OF S I . LUU1S OCTOBER 2 3 t 14 1967__________________________________________ PERSONAL CONSUMPTION E X P E N D IT U R ES IN CURRfNT 004.L A * J ______________COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R A T ES OF CHANCE-------------TERM INAL QUARTER JL z li. - OJ IH U I A k 4~9? 1-63 2-83 3-63 4-83 1-94 2-84 3-64 H 4 ftlUIdWS fflT” OOLLARS QUARTER 1-83 2-85 annual ra t « 3-85 4-95___ j- 0 6 2-86 -- ^ 8 6 4-86___ 1 - 8 7 2-67 5 .7 2 * 1 4 6 .6 9 .3 1 3 .0 2 * 2 1 3 .0 9 .3 1 1 .1 2 * 2 6 2 .8 2 * 3 1 5 .8 _ 2 *3 6 1 .1 1-84 9 .1 1 0 .0 9 .0 8 .9 8 1 2-84 9 .2 1 0 .0 9 .2 9 .2 6 9 9 .8 3-84 8 .7 9 .2 0 .5 8 .3 7 6 7 .7 5 .6 4-84 8 .5 6 .9 8 .3 8 .1 7 7 7 .5 6 .4 7 .2 1-85 8 .6 9 .0 8 .4 8 .3 8 0 8 .0 7 .4 8 .3 2-85 8 .6 8 .9 8 .4 8 .3 8 1 8 .1 7 .7 8 .3 8 .9 8 .4 9 .0 8 .6 8 .5 8 4 8 .4 6 .1 8 .8 9 .3 9 .3 8 .7 3-85 2 * 4 1 7 .0 2 * 4 5 0 .3 2 * 4 9 3 .4 2 * 5 4 9 .9 9 .4 2 * 6 0 2 .0 1 0.1 2 * 6 6 5 .4 2 * 7 0 0 .1 4-85 8 .4 8 .7 8 .3 8 .2 8 0 8 .0 7 .7 8 .1 8 .3 7 .9 7 .7 1-86 6 .2 0 .4 8 .0 7 .9 7 7 .7 7 .4 7 .7 7 .8 7 .4 7 .0 5 .5 8 .1 7 .7 7 .6 4 7 .3 7 .0 7 .2 7 .2 6 .7 6 .3 5 .1 4 .1 1 0 .7 6 .8 3 .1 2-86 7 .9 5 .3 2 * 7 3 7 .9 2 * 7 6 5 .8 2 *8 3 7 .1 3-86 8 .1 8 .3 7 .9 7 .8 7 7 .6 7 .4 7 .6 7 .7 7 .4 7 .2 6 .4 7 .4 4-86 7 .8 7 .9 7 .6 7 .5 3 7 .2 6 .9 7 .1 7 .1 6 .7 6 .5 5 .8 5 .9 1-87 7 .6 7 .8 7 .4 7 .3 I 7 .0 6 .8 6 .9 6 .8 6 .5 6 .3 5 .6 5 .7 6 .2 4 .0 5 .0 6 .9 6 .6 6 .4 5 .6 6 .0 6 .4 5 .0 6 .0 7 .1 8 .4 2-87 7 .6 2-07 3-87 7 .7 7 .4 7 .3 I 7 .0 6 .8 6 .9 7 .6 7 .0 7 .5 7 .3 2 7 .1 6 .9 7 .0 7 .0 6 .8 6 .6 6 .2 4-82 i- a * 2-83 3-83 4-16 } 1-94 2—84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-65 3-65 4 2 * 6 5 8 .6 2 * 8 9 3 .8 6 .4 6 .8 5 .9 6 .8 7 .7 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-66 1-67 2 * 9 4 3 .7 3 * 0 0 3 .7 P * e P a * e £> ft* « C C f t A L RCSCRVC SANK OF S T . L O U IS OCTOBER 23* 1967____________________________________________ PERSONAL CONSUMPTION E X P E N D IT U R ES IN 1962 DOLLARS ____________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R ATES Of CHANCE_____________ 4-82 1 -9 ? 2-83 3-83 4 -8 5 I- '94 3*0 2-83 5 .5 8 .0 5._4_ 6 .7 5 .3 5*4 6 •3 5 .4 5 .5 1-84 5 .1 5 .6 4 .8 4 .6 3 .7 2-84 5 .3 5 .8 5 .2 5 .2 5 .1 6 4 3-83 . DOLLARS ANNUAL R A T ES 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 5-85 4-95 1-66 2-86 3-66 4-86 1-87 2-87 2 * 0 9 4 .2 1-63 4-9?. TfiTTMnsr IN IT IA L QUARTER T ERM INA L QUARTER 2 * 1 3 5 .1 2 * 1 6 3 .0 2 * 1 9 1 .9 2 * 2 1 2 .1 2 * 2 4 6 .7 3-64 4 .6 5 .1 4 .6 4 .4 4 .0 4 1 1 .9 4-84 4 .6 5 .0 4 .5 4 .3 4 .1 4 2 3 .1 4 .3 1-85 4 .9 5 .1 4 .7 4 .6 4 .4 4 6 4 .0 5 .1 2 * 2 5 7 .3 2 *2 8 1 .1 5 .9 2 * 3 1 4 .1 2-85 4 .8 5 .0 4 .6 4 .5 4 .4 4 5 4 .0 4 .7 5 .0 4 .0 5-85 5 .0 5 .2 4 .9 4 .8 4 .7 4 9 4 .6 5 .3 5 .6 5 .4 6*9 4-85 4 .7 4 .8 4 .5 4 .4 4 .3 4 3 4 .0 4 .4 4 .5 4 .0 4 .0 2 * 3 5 7 .0 2 * 5 7 6 .1 1 .2 2 * 5 8 3 .2 1-86 4 .7 4 .8 4 .5 4 .4 4 .3 4 4 4 .1 4 .5 4 .5 4 .1 4 .2 2 .6 4 .5 2-86 4 .6 4 .7 4 .5 4 .4 4 .3 4 3 4 .1 4 .4 4 .4 4 .1 4 .2 3 .3 4 .3 4 .1 3-86 4 .8 4 .9 4 .7 4 .6 4 .6 4 6 4 .4 4 .8 4 .8 4 .7 4 .8 4 .3 5 .3 5 .7 7 .3 4 -66 4 .5 4 .6 4 .4 4 .3 4 .2 4 3 4 .0 4 .3 4 .3 4 .0 4 .1 3 .5 4 .1 3 .9 3 .6 0 .5 1-87 4 .2 4 .3 4 .0 3 .9 3 .6 3 6 3 .6 3*6 3 .7 3 .4 3 .4 2 .6 3 .1 2 .7 2 .3 —0 .1 —0 . 7 2-87 4 .1 4 .1 3 .9 3 .6 3 .7 3 7 3*5 3 .6 3 .5 3 .3 3 .2 2 .7 2 .9 2 .6 2 .2 0 .5 0 *6 1 .9 3-67 4 .1 4 .2 3 .9 3 .9 3 .6 3 6 3 .6 3 .7 3 .6 3 .4 3 .4 2 .9 3 .2 2 .9 2 .7 1 .6 2 *0 3 .3 4 *8 4-92 1-63 2-63 3-63 4-63 l - l 14 2-64 5 - *4 4-84 1-65 2-65 M ? 4-65 1-66 2 -«6 4 -§6 1-87 2 - S7 2 * 4 0 9 .7 2 * 4 3 4 .3 2 * 4 7 7 .5 2 * 4 6 0 .5 2 * 4 7 5 .9 2 *4 6 7 *5 2 * 5 1 7 .0 IN IT IA L QUMTF* H I F A R E 0 if FEDE1AL RESERVE BAUK OF ST. LOUIS OCTOBER 2 3* 15 1967 - CROSS P R IV A T E D O K fST lC INVESTN CNT IN CURRENT DOLLARS ___________ CQftfQUttPEP ANNUAL R A T ES O f CHANCE_______________ T ER M IN A L QUARTER - im n A i 1-83 - 2-83 1-8 3 4-83 1-84 4-84 2-84 L”-S2.__ 1 9 .6 2-83 38 .1 5 9 .5 3-83 3 7 .4 4 7 .2 3 5 .9 4-83 4 1 .6 4 9 .8 4 5 .1 5 4 .9 1-84 4 7 .0 5 4 .8 5 3 .3 6 2 .8 2-84 3 8 .0 4 2 .0 3 8 .0 3 8 .7 3 1*2 0 .7 3-84 3 2 .5 3 4 .8 3 0 .3 2 9 .0 2 1 .3 2*2 3 .7 4-84 2 7 .1 2 8 .2 2 3 .7 2 1 .3 1 4 .1 - 0 .2 - 0 .7 B IL L IO N S O f DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES w A *m 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 4 2 8 .3 4 8 1 .3 5 1 9 .7 5 7 9 .8 6 6 3 .0 7 1 .0 6 6 4 .2 6 7 0 .3 6 6 1 .8 - 5 .0 6 3 8 .6 - 3 .7 - 5 .1 - 9 .2 - 1 3 .3 7 .7 - 1 .8 - 2 .4 - 4 .3 —4 .0 6 .3 4 .7 - 3 .5 - 4 .3 - 6 .2 - 6 .6 - 3 .1 - 1 1 .7 - 1 .1 - 1 .3 - 2 .3 - 1 .7 2 .6 0 .7 1 4 .9 1 .5 1 .6 1 .3 2 .6 7 .0 7 .3 1 8 .2 2 1 .6 6 .5 l.l l.l 0 .8 1 .8 5 .1 4 .8 1 0 .9 9 .0 - 2 .3 6 7 9 .4 8 .3 4 .9 - 0 .1 - 0 .2 - 0 .7 - 0 .1 2 .3 1 .5 5 .1 2 .1 - 6 .5 - 1 0 .5 6 6 0 .8 9 .5 7 .6 4 .4 - 0 .2 - 0 .2 - 0 .7 —0 .1 1 .9 1 .2 4 .0 1*4 - 4 .5 - 5 .6 - 0 .4 1-85 2 1 .8 2 2 .1 1 7 .5 1 4 .7 2-85 2 0 .2 2 0 .2 1 6.1 1 3 .5 3-85 1 6 .9 1 6 .6 1 2 .6 1 0 .0 4-85 1 6 .7 1 6 .4 1 2 .8 1 0 .5 5 .9 1-86 17.1 1 6 .9 1 3 .6 1 1 .6 7 .6 2-86 1 5 .6 1 5 .3 12*2 1 0 .2 3-86 1 3 .6 1 3 .2 1 0 .2 4—86 1 2 .7 1 2 .2 8 .0 6 4 8 .4 6 2 8 .6 6 5 0 .8 6 8 3 .4 6 6 0 .2 6 9 9 .9 1-87 1 3 .4 1 3 .1 1 0 .5 8 .9 6 .0 1 .8 1 .9 1 .7 2 .5 4 .7 4 .5 7 .4 6 .0 2 .4 4 .0 1 2 .2 2 6 .3 2-87 1 2 .7 1 2 .4 9 .9 8 .4 5 .6 1 .8 1 .9 1 .7 2 .4 4 .3 4 .1 6 .6 5 .2 2 .2 3 .4 8 .5 1 3 .3 1 .6 1 1 .8 1 1*4 9 .1 7 .6 5 .0 1 .4 1 .5 1 .3 1 .9 3 .5 3 .2 5 .3 4 .0 1 .3 2 .0 5 .4 7 .4 —1 .0 - 3 .4 4-82 1 -8 * 2-83 3-83 4-85 1-84 2-04 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-06 2-06 3-06 4-86 1-07 2-07 3-87 7 0 2 .6 6 9 6 .5 INITIAL WÉPARE0 BV FFÜERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS OCTOBER 23* 1987 CROSS P R IV A T E OOHESTIC tN V E ST N fN T IN 1902 DOLLARS ____________ CQMPOUNDEO ANNUAL R A T ES O f CHANCE_____________ IN m A l T E R M IN G QUARTER 4-82 1-83 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-04 3-04 4-04 l- ? 5 b ! l U (3 N $ W DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 2-85 3-05 4-05 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-06 1-07 2-07 4 2 7 .1 19 1 4 8 6 .9 2-83 41 9 6 0 .9 3-83 39 5 5 1 .0 3 5 .0 4-8 3 41 2 4 9 .4 4 0 .5 4 6 .3 1-84 45 8 5 3 .4 4 8 .6 5 5 .9 2-84 37 4 4 1 .4 3 5 .2 3 5 .3 3 0 .1 2 .0 3-84 32 0 3 4 .2 28 . 2 2 6 .6 2 0 .6 2 .0 3 .6 4-84 26 6 2 7 .8 2 1 .9 1 9 .5 1 3 .6 0 .1 - 0 .0 - 5 .0 5 2 4 .8 5 7 7 .2 6 5 5 .2 6 6 .0 6 5 8 .4 6 6 4 .2 6 5 5 .7 6 3 2 .1 1-85 21 4 2 1 .7 1 6.1 1 3 .2 7 .5 - 3 .5 - 5 .3 - 9 .4 - 1 3 .6 2-85 20 1 2 0 .2 1 5 .2 1 2 .6 7 .8 - 1 .2 - 1 .9 - 3 .7 - 3 .0 0. 3-05 16 6 1 6 .3 1 1 .6 9 .0 4 .5 - 3 .3 —4 . 3 - 6 .2 - 6 .6 —2 . - 1 3 .2 6 4 5 .7 6 2 3 .2 6 4 3 .3 4-85 16 3 1 6 .1 1 1 .8 9 .5 5 .6 - 1 .0 - 1 .5 - 2 .5 - 1 .9 2. - 0 .7 1 3 .5 1-86 16 7 1 6*4 1 2 .6 1 0 .6 7 .2 1 .5 1 .4 1 .0 2 .3 6* 6 .0 1 7 .1 2 0 .0 2-8 6 14 9 1 4 .6 1 1 .0 9 .0 5 .9 0 .7 0 .5 O .l 1 .0 4. 3 .1 9 .2 7 .1 - 5 .1 4 .1 - 0 .6 - 0 .9 - 1 .5 - 0 .9 1. - O .l 3 .5 0 .4 - 8 .5 -1*4 - 1 .7 - 2 .3 - 1 .9 —0 . - 1 .5 1 .0 - 1 .9 6 7 4 .4 6 6 5 .6 6 4 5 .0 3-86 12 9 1 2 .5 9 .0 7 .1 4—06 11 5 1 1 .0 7 .7 5 .8 1-87 12 4 1 2 .0 9 .0 7 .3 4 .8 0 .0 0 .7 0 .5 l.l 3. 2 .3 5 .1 3 .5 - 0 .4 1 .2 8 .5 2 B .5 2-87 11 7 11*3 8 .5 6 .9 4 .5 0 .9 0 .0 0 .5 l.l 2. 2 .1 4 .6 3 .1 - 0 .1 1 .2 6 .0 1 4 .0 l.l 3-87 11 2 1 0 .8 8 .0 6 .6 4 .3 0 .9 0 .0 0 .6 l.l 2. 2 .1 4 .2 2 .9 0 .2 1 .3 4 .9 9 .7 1 .4 1 .7 4-82 1-83 2-03 3-03 4-03 1-84 2-04 3-04 4-U 1-0 2-05 3-05 4-05 1-84 2-06 5-§6 4-06 1-07 2-07 - 1 1 .0 6 3 1 .0 - 8 .5 - 1 0 .1 6 7 1 .0 6 7 3 .7 6 7 6 .5 - f H I P M f P B Y FEDERAL' R E S E R V E SAWK UF 5 1 . LO O TS" ___________________________ OCTOBER 2 3 * 19BT 16 GOVERNMENT PURCH ASES O f GOODS AND S E R V IC E S IN CURRENT DOLLARS ----------------- COWPQUHOgD ANNUAL RATES O f CHANGE-------------------IN IT IA L a i i L i O H S -qr DOLLARS QUARTER A NNUAL RATES QUARTER 4-82 1-83 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2 -8 6 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 -2 .2 6 6 8 .1 CD 1 <\J 1 .0 4 .3 6 7 5 .2 6 8 0 .7 3-83 1 .8 3 .8 3 .3 4-83 0 .6 1 .6 0 .3 - 2 .7 1-84 2 .9 4 .3 4 .2 4 .7 1 2 .6 2-84 6 .3 8 .0 9 .0 1 0 .9 1 8 .4 2 % .6 6 7 6 .1 6 9 6 .5 7 3 5 .8 7 4 6 .6 3-84 6 .2 7 .7 8 .4 9 .7 1 4 .1 1 4 .9 6 .0 4-84 6 .7 8 .0 8 .6 9 .7 1 3 .1 1 3 .2 8 .0 9 .9 1-85 7 .1 8 .3 8 .9 9 .9 1 2 .6 1 2 .6 8 .8 1 0 .3 2-85 4-84 7 6 4 .5 7 84 .1 1 0 .7 IT CD 1 7 .3 8 .4 8 .9 9 .7 1 1 .9 1 1 .8 8 .8 9 .7 9 .6 8 .6 8 .1 9 .2 9 .8 1 0 .6 1 2 .7 1 2 .7 1 0 .4 1 1 .5 12. 1 12*8 8 0 0 .5 17.1 8 3 2 .8 8 5 7 .0 4-85 8 .5 9 .5 1 0 .0 1 0 .8 1 2 .6 1 2 .6 1 0 .7 1 1 .7 1 2 .1 1 2 .6 1 4 .6 1 -8 6 7 .4 8 .2 8 .6 9 .1 1 0 .5 1 0 .3 8 .4 8 .8 8 .5 8 .0 7 .8 3 .4 —4 .6 2 -8 6 7 .6 8 .4 8 .7 9 .2 1 0 .5 1 0 .2 8 .6 8 .9 8 .8 6 .4 8 .3 5 .5 2 .4 8 .3 7 .9 3-86 7 .4 8 .1 8 .4 8 .9 4-86 7 .2 7 .8 8 .1 1-87 7 .0 7 .6 7 .8 1 2 .1 8 4 6 .9 8 6 7 .2 9 .9 8 7 8 .5 7 .7 5 .5 3 .4 7 .6 5 .3 7 .3 7 .0 5 .1 3 .4 6 .3 4 .5 3 .6 6 .9 6 .7 3 .6 5 .8 4 .5 4 .1 4 .5 5 .7 4 .6 6 .6 5 .8 5 .9 7 .1 9 .7 1 0 .0 9 .7 8 .2 8 .5 8 .5 9 .4 9 .2 7 .7 7 .9 7 .7 8 .2 9 .1 8 .8 7 .4 7 .6 7 .3 7 .8 7 .6 7 .2 7 .0 8 8 6 .3 8 9 6 .2 9 1 7 .1 2-87 7 .2 7 .7 8 .0 8 .3 9 .1 8 .8 7 .6 3-87 7 .2 7 .7 7 .9 8 .2 9 .0 8 .7 7 .6 7 .7 7 .5 7 .2 7 .1 5 .9 5 .0 6 .7 6 .1 6 .3 7 .2 8 .5 7 .3 4-82 i - ô 'i 3-è3 4-Ô3 t-Ô4 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2 -8 6 3-86 4-86 1-8r 2-8# P R E P A R E D BY F ED ER A L R E S E R V E OCTOBER 23* 1987 BANK OF S I . 9 3 3 .5 L U U I5 GOVERNMENT PURCH ASES O f GOODS ANO S E R V IC E S IN 1982 OOLLARS rat » Qf w r f ç ç _________________ ___________ ç p « p w m >sp A fw m TERM INAL________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________ OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 1-87 2-87 3-06 4-06 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 2-84 1-06 1-84 2-05 3-85 4-85 2 -8 6 3-84 4-84 1-85 6 4 9 .2 1-83 —6 .4 2-83 -2 .8 l.l 3-83 - 1 .3 1 .4 1 .7 4-83 - 2 .7 - 1 .4 - 2 .7 - 6 .8 1-84 - 0 .9 0 .6 0 .4 - 0 .2 6 .9 2-84 3 .8 4 .5 5 .5 1 2 .2 1 7 .7 3-84 3 .6 4 .1 4 .7 8 .9 9 .9 2 .6 4-84 3 .8 4 .3 4 .8 7 .9 8 .3 3 .9 5 .2 6 5 0 .9 6 5 3 .6 6 4 2 .2 6 5 3 .0 6 8 0 .2 6 8 4 .5 6 9 3 .2 1-85 2 .9 4 .1 4 .5 5 .0 7 .6 7 .7 4 .6 5 .6 6 .0 2-85 3 .1 4 .2 4 .6 5 .0 7 .1 7 .2 4 .7 5 .4 5 .5 5 .0 3-85 4 .2 5 .3 5 .8 6 .3 8 .3 8 .6 6 .6 7 .9 8. 0 10.3 1 5.7 4-85 4 .5 5 .6 6 .0 6 .5 8 .3 8 .5 7 .1 8 .0 8 .7 9 .6 1 2 .0 8 .4 3 .5 4 .3 4 .7 5 .0 6 .3 6 .3 4 .7 5 .1 5 .1 4 .9 4 .0 -O . 3 - 0 .3 4 .6 4 .9 5 .2 6 .5 6 .4 5 .1 5 .5 5 .5 2 .4 - 0 .6 7 .0 3 -8 6 3 .7 4 .5 4 .8 5 .0 6 .2 6 .1 4 .9 5 .2 0 .6 5 .4 3 .0 4-86 4 .0 4 .7 5 .0 5 .2 6 .3 6 .3 5 .2 3 .6 2 .4 6 .2 5 .4 7 .9 1-87 3 .4 1 -8 6 2 -8 6 7 1 2 .1 5 .4 5 .5 5 .0 5 .0 5 .5 5 .5 5 .4 5 .5 7 3 0 .6 7 5 3 .7 7 3 7 .6 7 5 1 .6 7 5 7 .2 7 7 1 .0 4 .0 4 .2 4 .4 5 .3 5 .2 4 .1 4 .3 4 .1 3 .9 3 .0 1 .9 0 .6 3 .0 1 .4 0 .6 -6 .2 4 .0 4 .2 4 .3 5 .2 5 .1 4 .1 4 .2 4 .1 3 .9 3 .0 2 .2 1 .1 3 .1 2 .0 1 .7 - 1 .3 3 .0 3 .5 4 .0 4 .2 4 .4 5 .2 5 .0 4 .1 4 .2 4 .2 4 .0 3 .9 2 .5 1 .6 3 .4 2 .5 2 .4 0 .6 4 .2 4 .7 4-82 1-83 ¿ —03 3-83 4-03 1-04 2-04 3-04 4-04 t- 0 5 2-05 3-85 1 -8 6 2 -8 6 3-06 4-H85^ 1-87 r-87 2-87 3-87 7 0 3 .4 4-05 7 5 9 .6 7 6 6 .7 7 7 5 .5 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPA RED BY F ED ER A L R E S E R V E BANK OF- 5 l . OCTOBER 23* 1987 17 L U U IS D IS P O S A B L E PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R ATES OF CHANGE___________ - BUT T ONS Of IN IT IA L TERM IN A L QUARTER 4-82 4 .8 6 *8 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-04 1-05 2-05 DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 3-05 4-85 1-06 2-06 8 .5 8 .2 1 0 .5 1 1 .4 1 4 .6 1-84 1 0 .0 1 1 .3 1 2 .2 1 4 .3 1 4 .0 2-84 9 .1 1 0 .0 1 0 .3 1 1 .0 9 .3 4 .8 8 .9 9 .6 9 .8 1 0 .1 8 .7 6 .2 7 .5 4-84 8 .5 9 .0 9 .1 9 .2 7 .9 6 .0 6 .6 5 .7 1-85 8 .1 8 .5 8 .5 8 .5 7 .3 5 .0 6 .1 5 .4 5 .0 2-85 8 .6 9 .0 9 .0 9 .2 8 .3 7 .2 7 .0 7 .9 9 .0 1 3 .1 3-85 7 .8 8 .1 8 .0 8 .0 7 .0 5 .9 6 .1 5 .8 5 .8 6 .2 - 0 .2 4-85 7 .8 8 .1 8 .0 8 .0 7 .2 6 .3 6 .5 6 .4 6 .5 7 .0 4 .1 8 .6 1-86 7 .9 8. 1 8 .1 8 .1 7 .4 6 .6 6 .7 6 .9 7 .4 5 .5 8 .5 2-86 7 .9 8 .1 8 .1 8 .0 7 .4 6 .7 6 .9 6 .9 7 .1 7 .5 6 .1 8 .3 8 .1 7 .8 3-86 7 .5 7 .7 7 .6 7 .5 6 .9 6 .2 6 .4 6 .3 6 .3 6 .6 5 .3 6 .7 6 .1 4 .9 2 .1 4 .9 6 .0 5 .3 4 .3 2 .6 CD 7 .3 9 .1 2-87 2 *4 4 3 .2 7 .3 6 .8 6 .8 6 .3 7 .0 6 .9 2-8* 3-83 7 .4 7 .4 7 .0 6 .9 7 .1 1-87 7 .3 2-87 6 .9 7 .0 1-85 2 * 6 1 1 .8 5 .9 7 .2 7 .4 2 * 5 2 7 .9 6 .6 7 .3 7 .2 4-82 1-87 2 * 3 9 5 .4 3-83 3-87 4-86 2 * 3 4 5 .7 4-83 4-86 3-86 8 .7 w 1 1-83 2-83 1-83 QUARTER 2 * 6 4 2 .8 6 .1 2 * 6 9 1 .1 2 * 7 2 8 .6 2 * 7 6 2 .2 2 * 8 4 0 .4 2 *0 4 7 .2 2 * 9 0 6 .6 2 * 9 6 6 .0 8 .4 3 *0 2 2 .4 3 *0 3 0 .2 3 * 0 6 1 .6 3 .1 5 .9 5 .9 6 .1 6 .2 6 .2 6 .2 6 .4 5 .5 6 .4 6 .0 5 .4 4 .6 5 .9 8 .7 5 .7 5 .7 5 .7 5 .7 4 .8 5 .6 5 .1 4 .4 3 .6 4 .1 4 .6 0 .6 6 .4 5 .9 5 .9 5 .9 6 .0 5 .2 5 .9 5 .5 5 .1 4 .5 5 .1 5 .8 4 .4 0 .3 4-85 1-84 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 2-84 3 *1 2 5 .9 3 * 1 3 0 .6 3 *1 9 3 .5 INITIAL GUARTEft PREPA RED BY FED ERA L OCTOBER 23* 1907 R ESE R V E BANK DF S T . L O U IS D IS P O S A B L E PERSONAL INCOME IN 1982 DOLLARS COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE IN IT IA L TERM IN A L QUARTER 1-83 2-83 3-03 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 3-85 4-85 1-06 2-06 3—06 4-86 1-87 2-87 2 * 2 0 0 .4 1-83 2 .2 2-83 3 .1 4 .0 3-83 3 .5 *?1 4 .3 1 0» u> 4-02 BILLIONS OF QUARTER 5 .1 6 .1 7 .2 2 * 3 1 1 .1 2 *3 3 5 .4 1 0 .2 2 * 3 9 2 .7 2 * 4 4 6 .9 1-84 6 .0 6 .9 7 .9 9 .8 9 .4 2-84 5 .2 5 .8 6 .3 7 .0 5 .4 3-04 5 .0 5 .5 5 .8 6 .2 4-84 4 .7 5 .1 5 .3 5 .5 2 * 4 5 6 .6 1 .6 2 *4 7 9 .2 2 .7 3 .7 4 .3 2 .7 3 .3 2 .8 2 .4 2 .7 2 .2 1 .7 4 .6 3 .6 4 .1 4 .3 5 .0 8 .5 2 .5 2 .6 2 .4 2 .2 2 .5 - 3 .1 2 * 4 9 6 .3 2 * 5 0 6 .0 1-85 4 .4 4 .7 4 .8 4 .8 2-85 4 .8 5 .1 5 .2 5 .3 3-85 4 .0 4 .2 4 .3 4 .3 4-85 4 .1 4 .2 4 .3 4 .3 3 .5 2 .7 2 .9 2 .8 2 .0 3 .1 0 .6 4 .4 1-86 4 .3 4 .5 4 .5 4 .6 3 .9 3 .3 3 .5 3 .5 3 .6 4 .1 2 .7 5 .0 7 .2 2-86 4 .6 4 .7 4 .0 4 .8 4 .3 3 .8 4 .1 4 .1 4 .3 4 .9 4 .0 6 .5 7 .5 2 * 5 5 0 .4 2 * 5 3 0 .2 2 * 5 6 5 .5 2 * 6 1 0 .5 2 * 6 6 0 .2 7 .0 2 * 6 5 3 .2 3-86 4 .2 4 .3 4 .3 4 .3 3 .0 3 .3 3 .5 3 .4 3 .5 3 .9 3 .0 4 .5 4 .6 3 .3 - 1 .0 4-06 3 .9 4 .1 4 .1 4 *0 3 .6 3 .0 3 .2 3 .1 3 .2 3 .4 2 .5 3 .7 3 .6 2 .4 - 0 .3 0 .5 1-07 3 .9 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 3 .5 3 .0 3 .1 3 .1 3 .1 3 .3 2.6 3 .6 3 .4 2 .5 0 .7 1 .6 4?. 7 2 * 6 5 6 .7 2 * 6 7 4 .6 2 * 6 4 5 .5 2-07 3 .4 3 .5 3 .4 3*4 2 .4 2 .5 2 .4 2 .3 2 .4 1 .7 2 .4 2 .1 1.1 —0.6 - 0 .4 -0.8 - 4 .3 3-07 3 .5 3 .5 3 .5 3 .5 2 .6 2 .7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.0 2 .7 2 .4 1 .7 0 .5 0 .9 1.0 0 .1 4 .7 4-02 1-03 2-83 3-03 1-84 2-44 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-05 5-05 4-05 1-06 2-06 3-86 4-06 1-07 2-81 4-03 2 *6 7 6 .1 IN IT IA L MJARTER “ PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK UF S I . L U U I5 OCTOBER 23* 1907 _______________________ 18 CORPORATE P R O F IT S A FTER T A X E S* COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RA TES Qf CHANGE * T 00 1 00 TERM INAL________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_______________________________________________________________________ OOLLARS QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 2-84 3-8 3 4-83 3-86 1-83 2-86 1-87 3-84 4-86 4-82 2-83 1-86 4-84 2-85 3-65 4-85 1-85 4-82 - 1 0 .7 1-83 6 .2 2-83 2 4 .7 4 7 .3 7 1 .7 3-83 3 1 .4 4 9 .5 6 2 .5 5 3 .9 4-83 2 6 .1 3 7 .5 4 1 .4 2 8 .3 1 0 4 .3 1 1 0 .6 2 6 .4 1 2 6 .6 1 4 1 .0 7 .0 1 4 3 .4 1-84 2 6 .4 3 5 .5 3 7 .9 2 8 .2 1 7 .0 2 7 .9 2-84 2 1 .7 2 8 .1 2 8 .4 1 9 .4 9 .8 1 1 .2 3-84 1 4 .8 1 9 .0 17.8 9 .2 0 .3 - 1 . 9 - 1 4 .0 - 2 3 .5 4-84 1 2 .3 1 5 .5 1 4 .0 6 .5 —1 .0 1-85 5 .8 7 .8 5 .7 - 1 .4 - 8 .4 - 1 1 .2 - 1 9 .0 - 2 3 .6 - 2 3 .6 - 3 7 .8 2-85 5 .6 7 .4 5 .5 - 0 .7 - 6 .7 - 8 .8 - 1 4 .8 - 1 7 .5 - 1 5 .3 - 1 9 .6 3 .9 8 .2 6 .6 1 .1 - 4 .1 - 5 .6 - 1 0 .2 - 1 1 .5 - 8 .3 - 9 .0 10.1 3-85 6 .5 - 2 .9 1 5 2 .5 - 3 .4 - 1 1 .5 1 5 1 .2 - 1 5 .2 1 4 1 .4 - 6 .1 1 3 9 .2 1 2 3 .6 1 2 4 .8 1 2 9 .7 1 6 .7 4-85 7 .2 8 .8 7 .3 2 .4 - 2 .1 - 3 .2 - 7 .0 - 7 .6 - 4 .0 - 3 .4 1 1.8 1 6 .0 1 5 .3 1-86 3 .5 4 .6 3 .0 - 1 .7 - 6 .0 - 7 .3 - 1 1 .0 - 1 2 .0 - 9 .9 - 1 0 .7 - 2 .2 - 4 .1 - 1 3 .1 - 3 4 .5 1 3 4 .4 1 2 0 .9 3 .6 4 .7 3.1 - I.1 - 5 .0 - 6 .2 - 9 .3 - 1 0 .1 - 8 .0 - 8 .3 - 0 .8 - 2 .0 - 7 .5 - 1 7 .2 4 .7 3-86 5 .0 6 .1 4 .8 0 .9 - 2 .6 - 3 .5 •6# 1 - 6 .4 - 4 .0 - 3 .7 3 .5 3 .4 0 .4 - 4 .1 1 6 .0 4-86 5 .4 6 .5 5 .3 1 .6 - 1 .6 - 2 .2 - 4 .6 - 4 .7 - 2 .4 - 1 .9 4 .7 4 .9 2 .6 - 0 .3 1 4 .7 1 2 2 .3 1 3 0 .2 2 8 .5 o o 2-86 1 2 .2 1 34 .0 1 2 9 .0 1-87 4 .2 5 .1 3 .9 0 .5 - 2 .5 - 3 .2 - 5 .4 - 5 .6 - 3 .6 - 3 .3 2 .2 1 .9 - 0 .4 - 3 .2 6 .7 7 .4 - 1 .8 - 1 4 .1 2-87 4 .9 5 .8 4 .7 1 .5 - 1 .3 - 1 .8 - 3 .8 - 3 .8 - 1 .8 - 1 .4 3 .6 3 .8 2 .1 0 .0 8 .9 1 0 .0 4 .4 0 .7 1 8 .2 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2—84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-65 4-85 1-66 2-66 3-66 4-06 1-87 1 3 4 .5 INITIAL QUARTE* ♦ NATIONAL INCOME B A S IS ________________________________________________________________________ PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST• LOUIS OCTOBER 23» 1987________ _____________ HISTORICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA Estimates for the series in the regular quarterly presentation of NIPA tables for 1984-87:11 will be published in the July 1987 Survey of Current Business and 1983 in the July 1986 Survey of Current Business. Estimates for NIPA series for 1929-82 are published in The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-82: Statistical Tables. For further information and prices, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 19 I N V E N T O R I E S COMPARED W I T H MONTHLY SAL ES MANUFACTURI NG AND TRADE SEASONALLY ADJ USTED SOURCE: «BEGINNING IN 1982, INVENTORY DATA REFL E CT SHADED AREAS R E P R E S E N T L ATEST DATA PLOTTEDs P E R I OD S OF B U S I N E S S CHANGES U. S . DE P A RT ME NT OF COMMERCE IN E S T I MAT I O N PROCEDURES. RECESSIONS. AUGUST P R E L I MI NA R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL 20 RESERVE BANK OF S T. LOUI S
@FedFRASER