Full text of National Economic Trends : October 1986
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National E c o n o m i c Trends October 1986 T h e p r i c e o f oil fell b y half f r o m January to A p r i l o f this y e a r . S u c h a d e c l i n e in e n e r g y prices affects b o t h the g e n e r a l p r i c e l e v e l a n d p r o d u c t i v i t y s u b s t a n t i a l l y b e c a u s e it a l t e r s i n c e n t i v e s t h a t a f f e c t r e s o u r c e e m p l o y m e n t a n d o u t p u t . l o w e r e n e r g y p rices p r o v i d e a n incen t i v e to u s e m o r e a n d structures. elsewhere. T h e s e effects growth. F o r a n d reflected of exa m p l e , these prices continued a a n d to J a n u a r y p r o ducer produ c e r in effects c o n s u m e r 1 9 8 5 resources previously u se d to e c o n o m i z e o n energy use b e c o m e m o r e profitably prices 1986, but deceleration already producer 11.7 b e e n price actually fell at a n for fuels a n d to decline, t e m p o r a r y h a v e fell f r o m related p r o d u c t s at a slower indexes, percent 13 percent the w h i c h rate rose January rate. a n d in of price increase at 5 4.5 a n d an acceleration prices rose Productivity g r o w t h i n t h e first h a l f o f an inventory at a 1.5 T h e with a a a 4.1 a 1986, rate, 4.1 percent slowing F r o m This p o w e r rate. percent rate rate in rate a n d to A p r i l decline over W h i l e v ie w s c h a n g e occasioned over the n o first h a l f o f g r o w t h c o n s u m e r the a n d percent o f this y e a r : w a s associated s a m e period. c o n s u m e r a n d the b y slowing a previous in h o u r l y last h a l f o f over sharp 1986, prices rose at a annual c o n s u m e r with a April p r o ducer prices rates, prices 63.4 F r o m 2.9 O u t p u t p e r h o u r in the b u s i n e s s the fourth quarter of following In the in t h e percent despite a t e m p o r a r y rise in p r o d u c t i v i t y costs. 1.9 rose recently, as well. correction. percent o f unit labor a n d at the t w o in p r o d u c t i v i t y observed. respectively, fell a t a 4 . 3 percent h a v e in p r o d u c t i o n g r o w t h 19 8 5 the to the s e c o n d previous decline increase b e e n to in the cost in t h e s e c o n d of energy This slowing 2.7 percent a energy depressed in prices b y the A p r i l to S e p t e m b e r , rate. sector, a m e a s u r e quarter of percent 1986, o f productivity, q u arter that w a s this m e a s u r e accelerated associated with of productivity rose quarters. in unit l a b o r quarters. c o m p e n s a t i o n t w o percent f r o m rate o f decline to S e p t e m b e r , d e c l i n e in e n e r g y p r i c e s s i n c e J a n u a r y , their pa t t e r n s o f g r o w t h h a v e b e g u n to r e t u r n to earlier levels. F r o m pr o ducer e m p l o y e d t h e o u t p u t o b t a i n e d f r o m a g i v e n s u p p l y o f l a b o r a n d capital rises a n d t h e g e n e r a l level o f p r ices declines. are S o m e S e p t e m b e r rate Furthermore, T h us, Specifically, e n e r g y a n d to i n c r e a s e t h e e m p l o y m e n t o f e n e r g y - u s i n g capital e q u i p m e n t cost is r e f l e c t e d s l o w e d reflects both to only the rate o f i n c rease in a m o r e in t h e a 1.1 reduction in the p e r c e n t rate, rapid g r o w t h c o m p a r e d productivity g r o w t h first h a l f o f this y e a r f r o m 1985. — T F E D E R R H R E A E A L S E R V E N K of ST. L O U S e x p r e s s e d d o n o t n e c e s s a r ily r e f le c t o f f ic ia l p o s itio n s o f t h e F e d e r a l R e s e r v e S y s te m . J o h n A. T a t o m TOTAL C I V I L I A N E MPLOYMENT» C O M P O U N O E D ANNUAL RATES OF C H ANCE THOUSANDS OF PERSONS IN IT IA L MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 3-85 »-85 5-85 6-85 T—85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 »-86 5-86 6-86 “1-86 ó -é ¿ 106*951 »♦2 #• 1 00 2-85 3-85 1.6 - 0 .9 5-05 Í.3 —O . i 0 .8 6-85 0 .0 - 1 .3 - 1 .5 - 3 .7 7-85 0 .6 - 0 .2 0 .0 - 0 .» 106*871 1U6*V3V 106*601 3.1 106*871 107*210 8-85 1*2 0 .6 1.0 1.0 3 .5 3 .9 9-85 1*5 1.1 1.5 1 .6 TZs 3.7 3.5 107*519 10-85 1.7 1 .» 1.8 2 .0 3 .» 3 .6 3 .» ■“ 3 .3 107*813 11-85 1.7 1 .» 1.8 1.9 3 .1 3.1 2.9 2.5 107*969 1.8 2.7 108*206 12-85 1.8 1 .6 1.9 2 .0 3 .0 3 .0 2 .4 2 .6 "7 .2 ' 1-86 2 .» 2 .3 2 .6 2 .8 3 .8 3 .9 ».Ó » .1 » .3 5 .6 8 .6 2-86 1.9 1 .6 1.9 2 .Ó 2«¿ 2.7 2 .5 2.3 Z .l 2 .2 2 .0 108*955 10b*561 108*788 to 1 «■* - » .3 1.9 l.t 2 .0 2.1 2 .7 ¿"."7 2.$ 2 .» 2.2 2 .3 2.2 - 0 .9 »-86 1.9 1 .7 1.9 2 .0 2 .6 2 .5 2 .» 2 .2 2.Ô 2.1 1 .4 -0 .2 1.8 1.2 5-86 1.9 1.7 1.9 2 .0 2 .6 ¿ .5 2 .» 2 .2 .... "271" 2.1 2 .0 6.4 2.Ô 1.0 2 .$ 10ö * b 92 iu v * ilo 2 .» 109*673 6-86 2 .2 2 .0 2 .2 2 .» 2 .9 2 .9 2 .8 2 .7 2 .6 2 .7 2 .7 1 .6 3.1 3 .3 » .4 6 .» 7-86 2 .2 2 .0 2.2 2 .» 2*8 2 .8 2 .7 2 .6 2 .6 2 .7 2 .7 1 .7 2 .9 3 .0 3 .7 » .3 2 .3 8-86 2 .2 2 .1 2*3 2 .» 2 .9 2 .8 "277” 2 .7 2 .6 2.7 2 .7 1 .9 3 .0 3 .0 3.5 Í.9 2 .V 375“ 2 .2 2 .2 0 .8 0 .0 —2 .8 »-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 1.9 1.8 2 .0 2.1 2 .5 2 .» 2 .3 2-85 3-85 »-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 2.1 1 .3 2 .1 2 .0 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 2 .2 2.1 2.1 109*882 110*1$$ 109*891 IN IT IA L MONTH ♦SEE FOOTNOTE BOTTOM OF CHART OPPOSITE PACE COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE THOUSANOS OF PERSONS IN IT IA L MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 2-85 3-85 » .6 »-85 3 .8 3-85 »-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 »-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 96*8T0 2 .9 97*10» 47*338 2 .9 5-85 3 .5 2 .9 6-85 2 .9 2 .» 2 .1 1.3 7-85 2 .9 2 .5 2 .» 2 .1 2 .9 8-85 2 .9 2 .5 2 .» 2 .3 2 .8 2 .7 97*»»2 97*672 97*890 98*128 9-85 2 .9 2 .6 2 .5 2 .5 2 .8 2 .8 3 .0 10-85 3 .0 2 .8 2 .7 2 .7 3.1 3.1 3 .3 3 .7 11-85 3 .0 2 .8 2 .8 2 .7 3 .0 3.1 3 .2 3 .3 12-85 3 .0 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 3 .0 3.1 3 .2 3 .2 3 .0 3 .0 1-86 3 .2 3 .0 3 .0 3 .0 3 .3 3 .» 3 .5 3 .6 3 .6 3 .9 » .8 2-86 3 .0 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 3 .1 3.1 3 .2 3 .2 3.1 3 .1 3 .2 98*»28 9 8 * 6 ¿¿ 2 .9 98*910 99*296 1 .6 $ 9* 42 9 9 9 *»«» ■ ■o- 3-86 2*8* 2 .7 2 .7 2 .7 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .6 2 .5 2 .3 1.1 0 .7 »-86 2 .9 2 .8 2 .8 2 .7 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 2 .9 2 .8 2 .7 2 .7 2 .0 2 .2 3 .7 5-86 2 .8 2 .7 2 .7 2 .7 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .T 2 .6 2 .6 2 .5 1 .9 2 .0 2 .6 1 .6 99*783 99*918 99,8»3 6-86 2 .6 2 .» 2 .» 2 .» 2 .5 2 .» 2 .» 2 .3 2 .2 2 .1 1 .9 1 .3 1 .3 1 .5 0 .» - 0 .9 7-86 2 .6 2 .5 2 .5 2 .» 2 .5 2 .5 2 .5 2 .» 2 .3 2 .2 2 .1 1 .6 1 .6 1 .9 1 .3 1.1 3*2 8-86 2 .6 2 .5 2 .» 2 .» 2 .5 2 .» 2 .» 2 .» 2 .2 2 .2 2.1 1 .7 1.7 1 .9 1 .» 1 .» 2 .5 1.9 9-86 2 .5 2 .» 2 .» 2 .3 2 .» 2 .» 2 .3 2 .3 2 .2 2 .1 2 .0 1 .6 1 .6 1 .8 1 .» 1 .» 2 .1 1 .6 1 .3 »-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 »-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 2-85 100*105 100*261P 100*368P IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIMINARY i PREPAREO RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS -- y BY --i FEDERAL i. iTk OCTOBER 3« 1986 2 EMPLOYMENT R A T I O SCALE M I L L I O N S OF PERSONS 1978 1979 R A T I O SCALE MI L L I O N S OF PERSONS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOURCEt U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BEGINNING JANUARY 1986, TOTAL EMPLOYMENT OATA INCORPORATE NEW PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING MEASURES OF IMMI ORATION AND EMI ORATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0.3X. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt SEPTEMBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SEAS ON A L L Y ADJUSTED PERCENT PERCENT 12.0 1 1 . 11.0 10, 10.0 9. 9 .0 8. 8.0 7. 7 .0 6. 6.0 5 . 5 .0 4. 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOURCE* U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTED» SEPTEMBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . 3 L O U IS 4 .0 CONSUMER PR IC E INDEX FOR AL> UftBAH CONSUMERS. SEASONALLY ADJUSTED C O M P O U N D E D ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 1967*100 IN IT IA L MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 2-85 3-85 »-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 »-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 5* 8 319.2 4-85 5*0 » .2 320.4 5-85 » .2 3 .» 2 .7 6-85 3*9 3.3 2 .8 3 .0 7-85 3*6 3.0 2 .6 2 .6 2 .3 3-85 3 Ì1 .Ó 1 2 1 .S 3 2 2 .V " 323.1 8-85 3 .» 3 .0 2 .6 2 .6 2 .» 2 .6 9-85 3 .3 2 .8 2.6 2 .5 2 .» 2 .» 2.3 10-85 3 .» 3.1 2.9 2 .9 2 .9 3.1 3 .» 11-85 3 .8 3.5 3 .» 3 .6 3.7 » .1 » .5 5 .7 6 .9 12-85 3.9 3.7 3.6 3 .7 3 .8 » .1 » .5 5 .3 5 .7 » .5 1-86 3 .9 3 .7 3.6 3 .8 3.9 » .1 » .» 5 .0 5.1 » .3 » .1 2-86 3.1 2 .9 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 2 .9 3 .0 2 .6 1.2 - 0 .» - » .6 323.7 3¿» .9 » .5 326.7 327.9 327.1 3¿6¿3 3-86 2.5 2.2 2 .0 2 .0 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.0 - 0 .» - 1 .9 - » .8 -5 .0 »-86 2 .1 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.2 1.1 0 .9 0 .3 - 1 .0 - 2 .3 - » .3 - » .1 - 3 .3 5-86 2.1 1.8 1.6 1.6 1 .» 1.3 1.2 1.1 0 .6 - 0 .» - 1 .» - 2 .7 - 2 .1 - 0 .6 ¿ 2 5 .» 326.0 2*2 6-86 2 .3 2.1 1 .9 1.9 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.2 0 .» - 0 .2 - l.l - 0 .2 1.5 3.9 5.7 7-86 2*2 2 .0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.5 1 .» l.l 0 .» - 0 .2 —0 .8 - Ó .Í i"r " ¿17 3.0 327.5 Ö.» 3¿7 .6 - T2872 8-86 2.2 2 .0 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.2 0 .6 0.1 - 0 .» 0 .3 1 .» 2 .6 2.7 1.3 2 .2 9 -8 6 2 .3 2.1 2 .0 1 .9 1 .9 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.0 0 .6 O .l 0.8 1.8 2.9 3.1 2 .2 3.2 »«1 2 -8 5 3 -8 5 6 -8 5 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 »-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 » -8 3 5-85 324.3 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS OCTOBER 23» 1986 PRODUCER PR IC E IN D EX. FIN IS H ED GOODS -- SEASONALLY ADJUSTED« COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE 2-85 3-85 3-85 »-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 »-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 292.0 0 .» 243.5 4-85 3 .3 6# 3 5-85 3 .2 » .6 2 .9 6-85 1.8 2 .2 0 .2 2 9 » .2 - 2 .» 2 9 ». i 7-85 2 .0 2 .» l.l 0 .2 2 .9 1.0 1.2 —0.1 - 1 .1 - 0 .» - 3 .6 9-85 -0.1 —0 .1 - 1 .» - 2 .» - 2 .» - 5 .0 —6 .» 1.» 0 .6 0 .2 0 .8 0.1 2.1 11.2 1 .3 293.» 291. 6 2 9 » . » 2 9 6 .» 11-85 2.1 2 .3 1.7 1.5 2 .3 2.4 » .2 9 .8 8 .5 12-85 2*6 2 .9 2 .5 2 .» 3 .2 3 .3 5.1 9 .2 8 .2 8 .0 1 .0 1.5 1.2 2 .2 » .5 2 .3 - 0 .6 1-86 1.6 l.T 1.2 2 4 3 .¿ 1 8-85 10-85 1967 = 100 IN IT IA L MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 2^0.3 - 8 .5 ' ” ' " 2-86 - 0 .2 - 0 .3 - 0 .9 - 1 .3 - 1 .2 - l.T - I.» - 0 .» - 3 .1 - 6 .7 -1 3 .3 -*17.8 3-86 - I . 1 - 1 .2 - 1 .9 - 2 .3 - 2 .3 - 2 .9 - 2 .8 - 2 .2 - » .7 - 7 .8 -1 2 .5 -• I» .» - 1 0 .9 »-86 - 1 .» - 1 .6 - 2 .2 - 2 .7 - 2 .T - 3 .3 - 3 .3 - 2 .8 - 5 .0 - 7 .» -10 .9 —11.7 - 8 .5 296.1 291.3 288.^ - 6 .1 " 5-86 -0 .9 —1.0 - 1 .6 - 1 .9 - 1 .9 - 2 .» - 2 .2 - 1 .7 - 3 .» - 5 .3 - 7 .7 - 7 .5 -3 .8 0 .0 6 .5 6-86 - 0 .9 —1 .0 - 1 .2 —1.8 - I.* - 2 .1 -¿.Ò - 1 .5 —3 .0 —» .5 —6 .5 - 6 .0 —¿ . 9 * 0 .0 3 .2 Ö .Ö 7-86 -1.1 - 1 .2 - 1 .7 - 2 .0 - 2 .0 - 2 .» - 2 .3 -1 .8 - 3 .2 - » .6 - 6 .2 - 5 .9 - 3 .3 - 1 .2 0 .» -2 .5 8-86 -0 .8 - 0 .9 - 1 .» - 1 .6 - 1 .6 - 1 .9 - 1 .8 - 1 .3 -2 .5 - 3 .7 - 5 .0 - » .5 - 2 .1 - 0 .2 1.3 - 0 .» - 0 .6 3 .8 9-86 - 0 .6 - 0 .6 —1.0 - 1 .3 - 1 .2 - 1 .5 - 1 .3 - 0 .9 - 1 .9 - 2 .9 - » .0 - 3 .» -1 .2 0 .6 1 .9 0.8 1.1 » .3 » .7 2-85 3-85 »-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 _ 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 »-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 287.0 288.5 288.^ " " ------ ' 287.3 2ÔÔ.2 289.3 IN IT IA L MONTH «OATA FOR FOUR MONTHS ACO R EV ISED TO REFLEC f LATE REPORTING PREPARED BY F€OEJtAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS O C T O B E R 10« 1986 4 PRICES RATI O SCALE 1967- 100 RATI O SCALE S EA SO NA LLY A D JU S TE D 1967- 100 CONSUMER P R I C E I NDEX B E « I MM1*0 J ANUARY 1079 I S FOR AL L URBAN CONSUMERS ( C f l - U ) . C f l - U OA T A B E G I N N I N G I OSS INCORPORAT E A RE NTAL E Q U I V A L E N C E MEASURE FOR HO MEOt NERSHI P C O S T S . P ERC EN TAGE S ARE ANNUAL R A T ES OF CHANGE FOR P ER I OD S L A T E S T D AT A P L O T T E D « I KOIC AT ED. SEPTEMBER PREPARED BY F EDERAL RE SERVE BANK OF S T . RATIO SCALE PRODUCER PRICES 1967-100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PE RC EN T AG ES ARE ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE FOR PE RI O DS LOUIS RATIO SCALE 1967-100 IN DIC AT ED. L A T E S T D A T A P L O T T E D » SEPTE MBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 5 PRODUCER P R IC E IN D EX. F IN IS H ED CnMSUMER FOODS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED» COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE TERMINAL IN IT IA L MONTH 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1967 * 100 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 272.4 3-85 - 5 .1 1 CD I* 2-85 -6 .0 - 6 .8 5-85 -7 .1 - 8 .1 - 9 .3 6-85 270.8 268.6 268.4 - 5 .6 - 5 .7 -5 .2 - 0 .9 T—85 -2 .4 - 1 .6 0.1 5.2 11.8 8-85 - 3 .3 - 3 .0 - 2 .0 0 .6 1 .3 ¿7 0 .9 209.0 -8 .1 2 6 ¿.4 9-85 - 4 .5 - 4 .4 - 3 .9 - 2 .4 - 2 .9 10-85 -1 .5 - 1 .0 0 .0 2 .0 2 .7 —0.1 4.1 21.7 11-85 0 .0 0 .7 1.8 3.8 4 .8 3.1 T .2 17.6 13.6 12-85 1.3 2 .0 3 .2 5.1 6.1 5.0 8 .6 16.0 13.3 13.0 1-86 0 .5 1.1 2 .0 3 .5 4 .2 3 .0 5 .3 9 .9 6 .2 2 .7 2-86 -1 .2 - 0 .8 -0 .2 0.8 1.1 - 0 .4 1 .0 3 .5 - 0 .6 -9 .6 -1 1 .0 270.8 ¿7 3 .7 276.5 - 6 .7 274.9 - 4 .9 -1 2 .7 -1 8 .3 Ztu.3 270.7 3-86 - 1 .0 - 0 .6 0 .0 0 .9 1.1 -0 .1 1.1 3 .3 -0 .1 - 3 .3 - 8 .1 - 8 .8 1 .8 4-86 - 0 .8 —0 .4 0 .1 1.0 1.2 0.1 1.2 3 .0 0 .2 - 2 .3 - 5 .7 - 5 .4 1 .8 1.8 5-86 0 .3 0 .7 1.3 2 .3 2 .6 1.7 2 .8 4 .7 2 .5 0 .7 - 1 .6 - 0 .2 6 .7 9 .2 6-86 0.3 O .t 1.2 2 .1 1.5 2 .5 4.¿ T ll~ Ò.6 - 1 .3 - 0 .2 5 .0 6 .0 8 .2 0 .0 T—86 1.6 2 .1 2 .7 3 .6 3 .9 3 .3 4 .4 6 .1 4 .5 3 .4 2 .1 3 .7 8 .7 10.5 13.6 11.9 25.2 8-86 2.4 2 .9 3 .5 4 .4 4 .8 4 .3 5 .4 7 .1 5 .T 4 .9 3 .9 5 .5 10.1 11.8 14.5 13.6 21.1 it.t 6 .3 5 .0 3 .2 4 .5 8 .3 9 .4 11.0 9 .5 12.8 t.l - 2 .1 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 7-86 8-86 9-86 2.2 2 .6 3 .2 4 .0 4 .4 3 .8 4 .8 2-85 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 4.1 271.1 ¿7 4 .7 17.2 ¿ F4.T 279.9 283.6 ¿8 3 .1 IN IT IA L MONTH «DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS ACO REV ISEO TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING PRODUCER PRI C E INDEX . F IN I S HE D G OO DS . E X C L U D I N G F O O D S COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED« 1967 * 100 IN IT IA L MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 2-85 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 T—85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 296.3 3-85 2 .9 *-85 6 .9 5-85 6 .9 9 .0 6-85 4 .2 4 .7 1. 6 - 3 .5 7-85 3 .4 3 .6 1.2 - 1 .6 0 .4 8-85 2 .5 2 .4 0 .4 - 1 .7 - 0 .8 - 2 .0 298.9 11.1 300.6 7 .0 299.7 299.8 299.3 298.Ö 9-85 1.4 1 .2 - 0 .7 - 2 .6 - 2 .2 - 3 .5 - 5 .1 10-85 2 .3 2 .2 0 .8 - 0 .4 0 .4 0 .4 1.6 8 .8 11-85 2.8 2 .7 1.6 0 .7 1.6 1.9 3 .2 7 .7 300.1 301.7 6 .6 12-85 3.1 3 .2 2 .2 1.5 2 .4 2 .8 4 .1 7 .3 6*6 6 .6 1-86 2 .0 1 .9 0 .9 0.1 0 .7 O.T 1.3 2 .9 1.1 - 1 .6 - 9 .1 300.9 2-86 0 .2 -0 .1 - 1 .1 - 2 .0 - 1 .8 - 2 .1 - 2 .1 - 1 .5 - 3 .9 - 7 .2 -1 3 .4 -1 7 .5 296.1 3-86 -1.1 - 1 .4 - 2 .4 - 3 .3 - 3 .3 - 3 .8 - 4 .0 - 3 .9 - 6 .2 - 9 .2 -1 3 .9 -1 6 .1 -1 4 .7 292.2 4-86 - 1 .6 - 2 .0 - 3 .0 -3 .8 - 3 .9 - 4 .3 —4 .6 —4 .6 - 6 .6 -9 .1 -1 2 .6 -1 3 .7 - 1 1 .7 - 8 .7 5-86 -1 .3 - 1 .6 - 2 .5 - 3 .3 - 3 .3 - 3 .6 - 3 .8 - 3 .7 - 5 .3 - 7 .2 - 9 .7 - 9 .8 - 7 .1 - 3 .0 2 .9 6-86 - 1 .2 - 1 .5 - 2 .4 -3 .0 - 3 .0 - 3 .3 - 3 .4 - 3 .3 -4 .7 - 6 .2 -8 .1 - 7 .9 - 4 .4 - ¿ .0 1.5 7-86 - 2 .0 - 2 .3 -3 .1 - 3 .8 - 3 .9 - 4 .2 - 4 .4 —4 .3 - 5 .7 - 7 .1 - 8 .9 - 8 .9 -7 .1 - 5 .0 -*. 8 - 7 .0 - n . 5 8-86 -1 .9 - 2 .2 - 3 .0 •3#6 - 3 .6 - 3 .9 -4 .1 - 4 .0 -5 .2 - 6 .4 - 8 .0 - 7 .8 - 6 .1 —4 .2 - 3 .1 - 5 .0 - 7 .4 —Ö.8 9-86 - 1 .5 - 1 .7 - 2 .4 - 3 .0 - 2 .9 -3 .2 - 3 .2 - 3 .1 - 4 .1 - 5 .1 - 6 .3 - 6 .0 - 4 .2 - 2 .3 —1 .0 - 1 .9 - 2 .6 3 .4 7 .8 2-85 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 6-86 ¿9Ô.Ô " ¿9Ó .7 290.7 Ò.0 287.2 28T.Ö " 2 M .« IN IT IA L MONTH ♦DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS ACO R EV ISED TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING PREPARE0 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS OCTOBER 10* 1966 6 INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION R A T I O SCALE R A T I O SCALE 1977-100 1978 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1979 1980 1981 1982 1977-100 1983 1984 1985 1986 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INOICATED. LATEST OATA PLOTTED* SEPTEMBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS COMPOUMOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE 1977 * 100 IN IT IA L MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 2-85 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 T—85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 2*0 4-85 0*5 -1*0 5-85 1*3 1 .0 123.3 123.6 3*0 123.6 6-85 1*0 0 .6 1*5 0*0 T—85 0*4 0*0 0*3 - 1 .0 - 1 .9 8-85 2*0 2*0 2 .7 2 .6 3 .9 10.2 123.4 Ì2 4 .4 9-85 1*5 1*5 2*0 l.T 2 .3 4 .5 - 1 .0 10-85 0*5 0*3 0*5 0 .0 0 .0 0 .6 - 3 .8 124.3 - 6 .6 123.6 124.8 11-85 l.T 1 .7 2*1 2 .0 2 .3 3 .4 1.3 2 .4 12.3 12-85 2*3 2*4 2*8 2 .8 3 .3 4 .3 2 .9 4 .2 10.1 8 .0 1-86 2 .T 2 .T 3*1 3 .2 3 .6 4 .6 3.5 4 .T 8 .7 6 .9 5 .9 2-86 1 .7 1.7 1*9 1 .8 2 .1 2.7 1 .5 1 .9 4 .2 1 .6 - 1 .4 125.6 126.2 125.3 - 8 .2 Ì2 3 .6 3-86 0*3 0*2 0 .3 0 .0 0 .0 0 .2 - l.l - 1 .1 0 .0 - 2 .9 - 6 .2 - 1 1 .7 -1 5 .1 4-86 1 .0 1*0 1*1 1 .0 1.1 1 .4 0 .4 0 .6 1 .8 - 0 .2 - 2 .1 - 4 .7 - 2 .8 11.2 5-86 0*6 0*6 Ò.J 0 .5 0 .5 0 .8 - 0 .2 - 0 .1 0 .8 -1.0 -2.t —4 .7 - 3 .5 " ¿ .* -4.? 6-86 0*6 0*5 0*6 0 .4 0 .5 0 .7 - 0 .2 —0 .1 0 .7 - 0 .8 - 2 .2 - 3 .8 -2.6 2 .0 - 2 .4 0.Ò T—86 1*0 0*9 1*0 0 .9 1 .0 1.2 0 .4 0 .6 1.4 0 .1 - 1 .0 - 2 .0 - 0 .8 3 .2 0 .6 3 .4 7 .0 8-86 1*0 1*0 1*1 1 .0 1 .0 1 .3 0 .6 O.T 1 .5 0 .3 - 0 .6 - 1 .5 - 0 .3 ¿ .4 I. Ó 2 *4 4.4 1.1 1.3 0 .7 0.8 - l.l 0 .0 2 .8 1.2 2 .7 3 .6 1 .9 T—85 8-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 9-86 8-86 123.4 3-85 1*1 1 .0 1*1 1 .0 2-85 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 1 .5 0 .5 - 0 .3 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1 2 4 .Ï i24.^ 124.2 124.9 1*4 1 2 5 .IP 1 .9 12S.3P 8-86 IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIM INA RY PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS OCTOBER 16» 1986 7 PERSONAL INCOME R A T I O SCALE MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES R A T I O SCALE TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS 3 .8 3 .6 3 .4 3 .2 3 .0 2.8 2.6 2 .4 2.2 2. 2.0 1.8 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt SEPTEMBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST, LOUIS COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 2-85 3-85 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 3*273.8 5 .9 3*302.7 4-85 8.5 11.1 5-85 3 .8 2 .7 - 5 .0 6-85 4 .4 3 .9 0 .4 7-85 4 .3 3 .9 1.5 5 .0 3 .9 8-85 3 .9 3 .5 1.6 3 .9 2 .9 2 .3 4 .2 3 .6 3 .4 9-85 B IL L IO N S OF OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 4 .0 3 .7 3*288.5 3*304.9 6 .2 3*315.4 3 *320.5 1.9 ¿ * 3 3 3 .4 5.0 3*358.3 10-85 4 .6 4 .5 3 .4 5 .2 4 .9 5 .3 7 .0 9 .1 11-85 4 .7 4 .5 3 .6 5 .2 5 .0 5.2 6 .4 7 .1 5.1 12-85 5 .9 5 .9 5 .3 6 .8 7 .0 7 .6 9.1 10.5 11.2 3*372.3 3*418.0 17.5 1-86 5 .3 5 .3 4 .7 5 .9 5 .9 6 .2 7.1 T .T 7 .2 8 .3 - 0 .2 2-86 5 .4 5 .4 4 .8 6 .0 6 .0 6 .3 7 .0 7 .5 7 .0 7 .7 3.1 6 .5 3*417.4 3-86 5 .3 5 .2 4 .7 5 .7 5 .7 5.9 6 .5 6 .8 6 .3 6 .6 3.2 5 .0 3 .5 4-86 6*0 6 .0 5.6 6 .6 6 .6 7 .0 7 .6 8 .0 7 .8 8 .3 6 .2 8 .4 9 .3 15.5 5-86 5 .4 5 .4 5 .0 5 .9 5 .8 6 .0 6 .5 6 .7 6 .4 6 .6 4 .5 5.7 5 .5 6 .5 - 1 .9 6-86 5.1 5*1 4 .6 5 .4 5 .4 5.5 5 .9 6 .0 5 .6 5 .6 3.8 4 .6 4 .1 4 .3 - 0 .8 0 .2 T —86 5*0 5 .0 4 .6 5 .3 5 .2 5 .4 5 .7 5 .7 5 .4 5 .4 3 .8 4 .5 4 .1 4 .2 0 .7 2 .0 3 .9 8-86 4 .9 4 .8 4 .5 5.1 5 .0 5.1 5 .4 5 .5 5 .1 5 .1 3 .6 4 .2 3 .8 3 .9 1.2 2.2 3 .2 2 .6 9-86 4*8 4 .8 4 .4 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .3 5 .3 5 .0 5 .0 3 .7 4 .2 3 .8 3 .9 1 .7 2 .6 3 .4 3 .2 3*9 2-85 3-85 4-85 5 -8 5 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 1 0 -8 5 1 1 -8 5 1 2 -85 1-86 ,2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-06 7-86 8-86 3 * 4 ? $ .4 3*445.1 3*486.8 3*481.3 3*481.9 3* 4 4 2 .4 3*500.3 3 *5 1 1 .5P I N I T I A L HONTH P - PRELIMINARY PREPAft» BY FEDERAL .RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS OCTOBER 23* I9 B 6 8 RETAIL R A T I O SCALE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1978 1979 SALES R A T I O SCALE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOURCEt U .S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED* AUGUST, SEPTEMBER ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS R E T A IL SALES COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE MILLIO NS OF DOLLARS IN IT IA L MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 3-85 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 111*999 O .T 4-85 13.1 27.1 5-85 7 .6 11.2 - 2 .7 6-85 4 .2 5 .4 - 4 .1 - 5 .4 7-85 5 .9 7 .2 1 .3 3 .4 12.9 8-85 8 .0 9 .6 5 .6 8 .5 16.2 19.7 9-85 9 .9 11.6 8 .7 11.8 18.1 20 .8 2 2 .0 118*295 *■* 0 1 0» VA 2-85 5-85 3 .8 4 .3 0 .9 1 .7 3 .5 0 .6 - 7 .8 - 3 0 .3 114*785 11-85 4 .2 4 .6 1.8 2 .5 4 .2 2.1 - 3 .1 -1 3 .7 12-85 5 .3 5 .8 3 .4 4 .4 6 .1 4 .8 1 .3 - 4 .8 11.4 1 5 .9 1-86 5 .3 5 .8 3*6 4 .4 5 .9 4 .8 2 .1 - 2 .4 9 .2 10.4 5 .1 2-86 4 .7 5 .1 3.1 3 .8 5 .0 3 .9 1.5 - 2 .2 6 .4 6 .3 1 .8 - 1 .5 114*256 113*992 113*468 114*620 116*349 115*433 7 .0 116*861 117*349 117*200 116*684 3-86 3 .9 4 .2 2 .3 2 .8 3 .8 2 .7 0 .5 - 2 .7 4 .0 3 .3 —0 .6 - 3 .4 - 5 .2 4-86 4 .4 4 .7 3 .0 3 .6 4 .5 3 .6 1.8 - 0 .8 5 .2 4 .8 2 .2 1 .3 2 .7 11.1 4 .8 5 .1 3 .6 4 .1 5 .0 3 .8 3 .4 5 .1 10.7 10.2 6-86 4 .7 4 .9 3 .5 4 .0 T—86 4 .9 5 .2 3 .9 4 .4 8-86 5 .7 6 .0 4 .8 9-86 8 .4 8 .8 2-85 3-85 5-86 117*715 118*675 4 .3 2 .7 0 .5 5 .9 5 .7 4 .8 4.1 2 .7 0 .8 5 .5 5 .3 3 .6 3 .3 4 .6 8 .0 6 .5 2 .9 5 .1 4 .5 3 .2 1 .5 5 .9 5 .7 4 .4 4 .2 5 .4 8 .2 7 .3 5 .8 8 .9 5 .3 6.1 5 .6 4 .5 3 .0 7 .1 7 .2 6*1 6 .3 7 .6 10.4 10.2 10.1 13.9 19.2 7 .9 8 .6 9 .6 9 .3 8 .6 7 .5 11.8 1 2 .3 11.9 12 .8 15.0 18.8 20.4 2 3 .1 3 0 .6 43.1 71.8 4-85 5-85 6-85 7-85 8-85 9-85 10-85 11-85 12-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 5-86 6-86 7-86 8-86 118*960 119*804 12l*574P 127*1806 IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIM INARY E- ESTIMATED PREPARE0 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS OCTOBER 15« 1986 9 H O U R L Y C O M PENSATION» B U S I N E S S SECTOR C O M P O U N D E D ANNUAL RATES Of CHAN G E _____ 1977*100 __ IN IT IA L QUARTER T ERMINAL QUARTER 3-81 4 - fil 1-82 2-82 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 147.6 151*3 ISLi* 8 .6 6 .8 8.2 7.1 7 .5 7.1 7.2 6 .2 5 .9 4 .4 7 t? 3-82 A-A2 .4=81 6 .5 153*8 156.6 158*3 159.9 1-83 6 .6 6 .6 5 .7 5 .3 4 .3 4 .1 2-83 6 .0 5.9 5.0 4 .6 3 .7 3 .3 2*5 3-83 5 .4 5.3 4 .4 4 .0 3*1 2 .7 2 .0 4-83 5 .4 5.3 4 .2 3*6 3 .3 3 .1 3 .4 5 .3 1-84 5 .4 5.3 4 .7 4 .4 3*9 3 .8 3 .8 4 .2 5 .5 5.7 2-84 5.2 5.1 4 .5 4 .2 3 .8 3 .7 3*6 3*9 4 .6 4 .3 3 .8 3 .8 4*2 160.9 161.5 1.5 163.6 165.9 2 .9 167.1 3-84 5 .2 5.0 4 .5 4 .3 3 .9 3 .8 3*8 4*0 4*6 4 .4 4-84 5.1 4 .9 4 .5 4 .2 3*9 3 .8 3*8 4 .0 4 .5 4 .3 1-85 5 .0 4 .9 4 .4 4 .2 3*9 3 .8 3*8 4 .0 4 .4 4 .2 3 .9 4 .2 3 .9 4 .0 2-85 5 .0 4*0 4 .0 4 .0 4*1 4*5 4 .4 4 .1 4 .4 4 .4 4 .6 5 .2 4 .9 4 .5 4 .3 169*0 3*8 170*6 172*3 174.5 3-85 5.0 4*9 4 .5 4*3 4*0 4 .0 4 .0 4 .2 4 .5 4 .4 4 .2 4 .4 4 .4 4#6 4 .8 4 .4 4-85 4 .9 4 .8 4 .4 4*3 4*0 4 .0 4 .0 4 .1 4 .4 4 .3 4 .1 4 .3 4 .2 4 .3 4 .4 4 .1 3 .7 176.4 1-86 4 .8 4 .7 4 .3 4 .1 3 .9 3 .9 3 .9 4 .0 4 .2 4.1 3 .9 4 .0 3 .9 4 .0 3 .9 3.5 3 .1 2 .5 2-86 4 .7 4 .6 4*2 4*1 3 .8 3 .8 3 .8 3 .9 4 .1 4 .0 3 .8 3 .9 3 .8 3 .8 3 .7 3 .4 3 .0 2 .7 2 .9 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 178.0 179.1 180.4 I N IT IA L QUARTER OUTPUT PER HOUR OF ALL PERSONS, BU SIN ESS SECTOR _________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________ 1977*100 IN IT IA L QUARTER TERNINAL QUARTER 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 - 5 .4 1-82 -2 .9 -0*4 2-82 - 1 .4 0 .6 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 9 9 .8 100.2 1.6 100.3 3-82 - 1 .0 0.5 1*0 0 .4 4-82 - 0 .2 1*1 1 .6 1 .6 1-83 0 .4 1.6 2 .1 2 .3 3 .2 2-83 1*2 2 .4 3 .0 3 .3 4 .3 5 .0 6 .4 3-83 0 .8 1.8 2 .1 2 .2 2 .7 2»6 2 .2 -1 .9 4-83 1 .1 1.9 2 .3 2 .4 2 .8 2 .8 2 .5 0 .6 3 .1 1-84 1 .4 2*2 2 .5 2 .7 3 .0 3 .1 2 .9 1.8 3 .7 4 .3 2-84 1 .5 2.2 2 .5 2 .7 3 .0 3 .0 2 .9 2 .0 3 .4 3 .5 2 .7 2.0 2 .2 2 .3 2 .6 2 .5 2 .3 1 .5 2 .4 2 .2 1.1 - 0 .4 101.0 2 .8 101.9 3 .6 103.5 103.0 103.8 104.9 105.6 105.5 4-84 1.3 1.8 2*0 2 .1 2 .3 2 .2 2 .0 1.3 1 .9 1.6 0 .8 - 0 .2 0 .0 1-85 W 1.8 1 .9 2 .0 2 .1 2 .0 1.8 1.2 1 .7 1.5 0 .8 0 .1 0 .4 0 .8 2-85 *•3 1.8 2 .0 2 .0 2 .2 2 .1 1 .9 1 .4 1 .9 1.7 1.1 o • CD 3-84 3-84 9 9 .9 4-81 1 .1 1 .7 105.5 105.7 106.4 2 .7 3-85 1*4 1.9 2*1 2*1 2 .3 2 .2 2 .1 1«6 2 .1 1.9 1.5 1 .3 1 .7 2 .3 3 .1 3 .4 4-85 1*2 1*6 1 .7 1 .7 1.8 1.8 1 .6 l.i 1 .5 1.2 0 .8 0 .5 0 .7 0 .9 0 .9 0 .0 - 3 .3 1-86 1.3 1.7 1.8 1 .8 1 .9 1.9 1 .7 1.3 1 .6 1.5 1.1 0 .9 1 .1 1 .4 1.5 1.1 0 .0 3 .4 1.5 -0*4 4-85 1-86 2-86 107.3 1.2 1.6 1.7 1 .7 1.8 1 .7 1 .6 1.2 1 .5 1.3 1.0 0 .8 0 .9 1.1 1.1 0.8 -0 .1 3-81 4-81 1—82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 106.4 107.3 107.2 IN IT IA L QUARTER frggfrAft6tT T ¥ "Efö eftA L fté ¿É *V F fcA*»C AUGUST 27 . 1986 10 ¿t. LO UU P R O D U C T IV IT Y , C O M P E N S A T IO N , AND LABO R C O STS RATI O SC ALE R A T I O S C A LE 1977- 100 1977- 100 SEASONALLY AOJUSTEO souRCEt u . s . PE RC E NT A GE S ARE ANNUAL R A T ES OF CHANGE FOR PE RI OD S LA TES T DATA PLOTT ED. department of lam a FEDERAL RESERVE DANK OF S T . LO UI S IN DICA TED. 2ND QUARTER PREPARED I Y UNIT LA0OR COSTS, BU SIN ESS SECTOR TERMINAL QUARTER 1977*100 IN IT IA L QUARTER 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 147.8 4-81 12.5 1-82 11.5 10.4 2-82 9 .4 7 .9 151.5 153.5 5 .4 3-82 8 .9 7 .6 6 .3 7 .2 4 —112 7 .3 6 .1 4 .7 4 .3 1 .5 1-83 6 .1 4 .8 3 .5 2 .9 0 .8 0 .0 156.2 156.8 156.8 155.5 2-83 4 .7 3 .4 2 .1 1 .3 - 0 .6 - 1 .7 - 3 .3 3-83 4 .5 3 .4 2 .3 1 .7 0 .4 0 .0 0 .0 3 .4 4-83 4 .3 3 .3 2 .3 1 .8 0 .8 0 .6 0 .8 2 .8 2 .3 156.8 1 57 .7 1-84 4 .0 3.1 2 .2 1 .7 0 .9 0 .7 0 .9 2 .3 1.8 i.3 2-84 3 .6 2.8 2 .0 1 .6 0 .8 0 .6 0 .8 1.8 1.3 0.8 0 .3 158.2 3-84 3 .7 3 .0 2 .3 1 .9 1.3 i.2 1.4 2 .4 2 .2 2.1 2 .5 4 .9 4 .3 3 .8 158.3 160.2 4-84 3 .7 3 .0 2 .4 2 .1 1.5 1 .6 1.8 2 .6 2 .5 2 .5 3 .0 1-85 3 .7 3.1 2 .5 - 2 .2 1 .7 1 .8 2 .0 2 .8 2 .7 2.7 3.1 4 .1 3 .7 3 .5 2-85 3 .6 3.0 _2.5 2 .2 1.8 1.8 2 .0 2 .7 2 .6 2 .6 2 .9 3 .6 3 .2 2 .9 2 .2 3 .1 2*6 2 .2 1 .6 1.0 161.7 163.1 164.0 3-85 3 .5 2 .9 2 .4 2 .1 1.7 1 .7 1 .9 2 .5 2 .4 2 .4 2 .6 4-85 3 .7 3.1 2 .7 2 .5 2 .1 2 .2 2 .4 3 .0 2 .9 3.0 3.2 3 .8 3 .5 3 .5 3 .4 4 .1 7 .2 1-86 3 .4 2 .9 2 .5 2 .3 1.9 2 .0 2 .1 2 .6 2 .6 2 .6 2 .7 3 .1 2 .8 2 .6 2 .4 2 .4 3 .2 -0 .7 2 .2 2 .7 2 .6 2 .6 2 .8 3 .1 2 .8 2 .7 2 .5 2 .6 3 .1 1.1 2 .9 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3 .4 2.9 2 .5 2 .3 2 .0 2 .0 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 164.4 167.3 167.0 168.2 IN IT IA L QUARTER P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L RE S E R V E BANK OF ST. L OUIS AU G U S T 27, 1 9 8 6 11 CROSS NATIONAL PROOUCT IN CURRENT OOLLARS TERMINAL QUARTER 61U.1M* Of - W T U W r ÄW*TSLR *-81 1-82 2-02 3-02 4-02 1-83 2-93L- h í i 1-84 2-84 1-05 4-84 2-85 3-85 4-65 1-86 2-86 DOLLARS AètküAL AÀTËS «M0 1 -0 .2 3*112.6 2-82 2 .9 6 .2 3-82 2 .6 * .3 2 .5 CO 1 3 .1 4 .3 3 .4 4 .2 1-83 3 .9 4 .9 4 .5 5 .5 6 .0 2-83 5.3 6 .5 6 .6 0 .0 9 .9 13.0 3-83 5.9 7 .0 7 .1 0 .3 9 .7 11.2 9 .4 4-83 6 .7 7 .7 0.0 9 .1 10.4 11.6 10.9 12.4 1-84 7 .6 0 .6 9 .0 10.1 11.3 12.4 12.2 13.6 14.9 2-84 7.6 0 .6 0 .9 9 .0 10.7 11.5 11.2 11.8 11.5 8 .2 3-84 7 .5 6 .3 0 .5 9 .3 10.1 10.6 10.1 10.3 9.T 7 .1 6 .1 4-84 7 .3 0 .0 0 .2 0 .0 9 .* 9 .8 9 .3 9 .2 8.5 6 .4 5 .5 4 .9 3*159.5 3*179.4 3*212.5 3*265.8 3*367.4 3*443.9 3*545.8 3*670.9 3*743.8 3*799.7 3*845.6 1-85 7 .2 7 .9 0.1 0 .6 9 .1 9 .4 6 .9 8 .6 0.1 6 .5 5.9 5 .9 6 .8 2-85 7 .1 7 .7 7 .9 0 .4 0 .0 9.0 6.5 8.4 7.7 6 .4 5.9 5 .8 6 .3 5 .0 3*909.3 3-85 7 .1 7 .7 7 .0 0 .2 0 .6 8.8 8 .3 8 .2 7 .6 6 .4 6 .1 6*1 6 .5 6 .3 3*965.0 6*8 4*030.5 4*087.7 7 .5 7 .6 0 .0 0 .4 8.5 8.1 7 .9 7.4 6 .3 6 .0 6 .0 6 .3 6 .1 6 .3 5 .8 7 .0 7 .5 7 .5 7 .9 8 .2 8.3 7 .9 7 .7 7.2 6 .3 6 .1 6 .0 6 .3 6*1 6 .2 6 .0 6 .2 2-86 6 .7 7 .2 7 .2 7 .5 7 .8 7.9 7 .4 7 .3 6.8 5.9 5 .6 5 .5 5 .6 5 .4 5*3 4 .8 4 .3 2 .6 3-86 6 .7 7 .1 7 .1 7 .4 7 .6 7.7 7 .3 7 .1 6 .7 5 .9 5 .6 5 .6 5.7 5 .5 5 .4 5 .1 4*8 4 .1 5 .7 4-81 1-02 2-02 3-02 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-04 1-05 2-85 3-65 4-85 1-86 2—00 00 1 ♦ 7 .0 1-86 4*149.2 4*175.6 4 *2 3 4 .3P IN IT IA L QUARTER PRELIM INARY CROSS NATIONAL PROOUCT IN 1902 OOLLARS ___ ÇQ H P W W EP M W H W S S OF ÇHANÇE_____ .i n n m TERMINAL " B l L t l d K S ÛF OOLLARS qv*«T£* TWltfE QUARTER 4-61 1-02 2—02 3-02 4-02 1-03 2-03 3-83 4-83 1-04 2-84 3-04 4-04 1-85 2-05 3-05 *-05 1-06 mXTii 2-06 3*170*4 — S . 9 ___________________________________________________________________________________________________ _________________________________________________ 3 * IT 9 .9 -2*7 —1*0 —3*2 4-82 - 1 .9 - 0 .5 - 1 .3 3*154.5 3*159.3 0 .6 3*186.6 1-83 - 0 .8 0 .5 0 .3 2 .0 3 .5 2-83 0 .8 2 .2 2 .5 4 .4 6 .4 9 .3 3-83 1.5 2 .8 3 .2 4 .8 6 .3 7 .7 6 .0 4-83 2 .2 3 .5 3 .6 5 .3 6 .5 7.5 6 .7 1-84 3 .1 4 .2 4 .7 6 .0 7 .2 8.1 7 .7 4 .3 4 .7 5 .9 6 .8 7 .5 7 .0 7 .4 3*258.3 3*306.4 3*365.1 7 .3 3*444.7 9 .8 CD 1 <M 3-84 3 .2 4 .1 4 .5 5 .4 6 .2 6 .6 6.1 6.1 5 .7 3 .7 2 .3 4-84 3 .0 3*9 4 .2 5 .0 5 .6 5.9 5.3 5« 1 4 .6 2 .9 1.9 1 .5 1 os VJl 3*487.1 3 .3 3 .0 3 .8 4 .1 4 .8 5 .3 5 .5 5 .0 4 .8 4 .3 3 .0 2 .3 2 .3 3 .1 7 .4 5 .0 3*507.4 3*520.4 3*547.0 3*567.6 2-85 3 .0 3 .7 3 .9 4 .6 5 .0 5.1 4 .6 4 .4 4 .0 2 .8 2 .3 2 .3 2 .7 2 .3 3-85 3.1 3 .7 3 .9 4 .5 4 .9 5 .0 4 .6 4 .4 4 .0 3 .1 2 .7 2 .7 3 .2 3 .2 4 .1 4-85 3 .0 3 .6 3 .8 4 .3 4 .7 4 .8 4 .3 4 .1 3 .8 2 .9 2 .6 2 .6 2 .9 2 .8 3 .1 2 .1 3*603.8 3*622.3 3*655.9 1-86 3 .0 3 .6 3 .8 4 .3 4 .6 4 .7 4 .3 4 .1 3.8 3 .0 2 .7 2 .8 3.1 3 .1 3 .3 2 .9 3 .6 2-86 2 .9 3 .4 3 .6 4 .1 4 .3 4 .4 4 .0 3 .8 3.4 2 .7 2 .5 2 .5 2 .7 2 .6 2 .6 2 .1 2 .2 0 .6 3-86 2 .9 3 .4 3 .5 4 .0 4 .2 4.2 3.8 3 .7 3.3 2 .7 2 .5 2 .5 2 .6 2 .5 2 .6 2 .2 2 .3 1.5 2 .4 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-65 1-86 2-86 3*661.4 3*683.3P P- PRELIM INARY PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BA*IK Of S T . LO UIS OCTOBER 22* 1966 12 GROSS N A T I O N A L P RO D U C T RATI O S C A L E QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES RAT I O S C A L E T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS 2.8 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 S O U R C E « P E R C E N T A G E S A R E L A T E S T P L O T T E D « D A T A A N N U A L R A T E S 3 R D OF Q U A R T E R C H A N G E F O R P E R I O O S 1984 U . S . 1985 D E P A R T M E N T 1986 OF C O M M E R C E I N D I C A T E D . P R E L I M I N A R Y PREPARED 13 BY FED ERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. L O U IS GENERAL PRICE INDEX* R A T I O SCALE 1978 R A T I O SCALE 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 «AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS 1984 1985 1986 SOURCE* U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 3RD QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS IM P L IC IT PR IC E OEFLATOR FOR CROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT __________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE____________ TERMINAL QUARTER 1982 * 100 IN IT IA L QUARTER 4-81 1-82 5 .9 2-82 5 .4 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 98.2 99.4 5 .0 100.8 3-82 5 .5 5 .4 5 .8 4-82 5 .1 4*8 4 .7 3 .6 1-83 4 .7 4 .4 4 .2 3 .4 101.7 3 .2 102.5 103.3 2-83 4 .4 4 .1 3 .9 3 .3 3 .2 3.2 3-83 4*3 4 .0 3 .8 3 .4 3 .3 3 .3 3.5 4-83 4*3 4 .1 4 .0 3 .6 3 .6 3.8 4 .1 4 .7 1-84 4*4 4 .2 4 .1 3 .8 3 .8 4 .0 4 .3 4 .7 4 .6 2-84 4 .2 4 .1 3 .9 3 .7 3 .7 3 .8 4 .0 4 .1 3 .8 3 .0 3-84 4*2 4 .0 3 .9 3 .1 3 .7 3 .7 3 .9 3 .9 3.7 3 .2 3 .4 4-84 4 .1 3 .9 3 .8 3 .6 3 .6 3 .7 3.8 3 .8 3.6 3 .3 3 .4 1-85 4*1 3 .9 3 .8 3 .6 3 .6 3 .1 3.8 3 .8 3.6 3 .4 3 .5 3 .5 3 .1 2-85 4*0 3 .9 3 .8 3 .6 3 .6 3 .6 3 .7 3 .7 3 .6 3 .4 3 .4 3 .5 3 .5 3 .3 2 .5 104.2 105.4 106.6 107.4 108.3 109.2 3 .4 110.2 111.1 111.8 3-85 3 .9 3 .8 3 .1 3 .5 3 .5 3 .5 3.6 3 .6 3 .4 3 .2 3 .3 3 .2 3 .2 2 .9 4-85 3 .9 3 .8 3 .1 3 .5 3 .5 3 .5 3 .6 3 .6 3.5 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3 .2 3.1 3 .6 1-86 3 .8 3 .7 3 .6 3 .4 3 .4 3 .5 3.5 3 .5 3.3 3 .2 3 .2 3 .2 3 .1 3 .0 2 .9 3 .1 2 .5 2-86 3*7 3 .6 3 .5 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3 .2 3 .0 3 .0 3 .0 2 .9 2 .7 2*6 2 .6 2.1 1 .8 2 .9 2 .6 2 .7 3 .6 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 3 .7 3 .6 3 .5 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3.4 3 .3 3.2 3 .1 3 .1 3 .0 3 .0 2 .9 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1—85 2 .8 112.8 113.5 114.0 11 5 .OP INITIAL QUARTER P- PRELIM INARY PREPARED I V FED ERA I RE S ER VE B A N K OF 51. L W JIS OCTOBER 22% 1986 14 P ER S O N A L CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT DOLLARS _____________COMPOUNDEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE______________ TERMINAL QUARTER B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL R A tES - JH I .U A L QVAftTEB 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-63 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-66 2-66 1 ,9 9 6 .3 1-82 7*6 2-8 2 6*6 5 .6 2 ,0 2 3 .8 2 ,0 6 5 .6 3-82 7 .2 7 .1 6 .5 4-82 6*0 8 .1 9 .4 1-83 7 .5 7 .5 8 .2 8 .0 5 .7 2-83 6 .4 8 .6 9 .3 9 .6 9 .3 2 ,1 1 7 .0 10.3 2 ,1 4 6 .6 13.0 2 ,2 1 3 .0 2 ,2 6 2 .8 3-83 8 .5 8 .7 9 .3 9 .5 9 .3 11.1 9 .3 4-83 8 .7 6 .9 9 .4 9 .6 9 .4 10.6 9 .5 9 .7 1-84 8 .7 8 .6 9 .3 9 .4 9 .2 10.1 9.2 9 .1 8 .6 2-84 8 .7 8 .9 9 .3 9 .4 9 .2 9 .9 9 .2 9.1 8 .6 9 .1 3-84 8 .4 8.5 8 .8 8 .6 8.6 9.1 8 .3 8. 1 7 .5 7 .0 5 .0 7 .9 7 .4 7 .0 6 .0 7.0 7 .4 7.1 6 .4 7.1 7.2 2 ,3 1 5 .8 2 ,3 6 3 .8 2 ,4 1 6 .1 2 ,4 4 5 .6 2 ,4 8 7 .2 4-84 8 .3 8 .3 8 .6 8 .6 8 .4 8 .8 8.1 1-85 8 .2 6 .2 8.5 8 .5 8.3 8 .6 8 .0 2-85 8.1 8.2 8.4 8 .4 8.2 8.4 7 .9 7 .7 7.4 7.1 6 .6 7 .2 7.3 7 .3 3-85 8 .1 8 .2 8.4 8 .3 8 .2 8.4 7.9 7 .7 7 .5 7 .3 6 .9 7 .4 7 .6 7 .7 6 .2 4-85 8 .0 8.0 8.2 8 .2 8 .0 8.2 7 .8 7 .6 7.3 7.2 6 .8 7.2 7 .3 7 .3 7 .3 6 .4 8 .0 7 .9 7 .7 7 .9 7 .5 7.3 6 .8 6 .7 6 .6 6 .4 5 .5 4*6 7 .1 1-86 7 .8 7 .8 2-86 7 .7 7 .7 7.8 7 .7 7 .6 7 .7 7 .3 3-86 7 .8 7 .8 7 .9 7 .9 7 .7 7.9 7.5 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4—82 1-83 2-83 3-83 7.0 6 .8 6.5 2 ,5 3 0 .9 2 ,5 7 6 .0 2 ,6 2 7 .1 2 ,6 6 7 .9 2 ,6 9 7 .9 2 ,7 3 2 .0 6 .8 6 .6 6 .3 6 .5 6 .5 6 .3 6 .1 5 .4 4*9 5 .2 7.1 7 .0 6 .8 7 .0 7 .0 7 .0 6 .9 6 .6 6 .6 7 .7 10.2 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-65 1-66 2-86 2 ,7 9 9 .3 P P- PRELIMINARY PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN 1982 DOLLARS ___________ COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE____________ IHV I M TERMINAL QUARTER 4-81 i-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 B IL L IO N S OF OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES WÄRTER l- ti 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 2 ,0 3 1 .2 1-82 2 .2 2-82 2.1 1.9 3-82 2 .1 2 .0 4-82 2 .9 3 .1 3 .7 5 .3 1-83 2 .9 3.1 3 .5 4 .2 3 .0 2-83 3 .8 4.1 4 .6 5 .4 5 .5 8.0 3-83 4 .0 4 .3 4 .8 5 .4 5 .4 6 .7 4-83 4*2 4 .4 4 .9 5 .4 6 .3 5 .4 5 .5 1-84 4 .2 4 .4 4 .8 5 .2 5«2 5 .7 4 .9 4 .8 4 .1 2-84 4*3 4 .6 4 .9 5 .3 5#3 5.8 5.2 5.2 5 .0 6 .0 2 ,0 4 1 .0 2 ,0 5 1 .6 2.1 2*078.7 2*094.2 2*135.1 5 .3 2*163.0 2*191.9 2*213.8 2*246.3 2*253.3 3-84 4*1 4 .2 4 .5 4 .8 4 .7 5 .0 4 .4 4 .2 3 .8 3 .6 1.3 4-84 4 .0 4 .2 4 .4 4 .6 4 .5 4 .8 4 .2 4 .0 3 .6 3.5 2 .3 3 .3 1-85 4 .0 4 .1 4 .3 4 .5 4 .4 4 .6 4 .1 3 .9 3 .6 3 .5 2 .7 3.5 4.1 2*271.7 2*292.3 3 .7 2*311.9 2-85 3 .9 4 .1 4 .2 4 .4 4 .3 4 .5 3 .9 3 .6 3.5 2 .9 3 .5 3 .6 3 .5 3-85 4 .0 4 .2 4 .3 4 .5 4 .4 4 .6 4 .1 3 .9 3 .8 3 .4 3 .9 4 .1 4 .4 5 .3 4-85 3 .9 4 .0 4 .1 4 .3 4 .2 4 .3 3.8 3 .6 3 .5 3 .5 3 .5 3 .5 1 .7 2*342.0 tel • 1* 2*351.7 3 .1 1-86 3 .9 4 .0 4 .1 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 3 .8 3 .6 3 .5 3 .2 3 .5 3 .5 3 .5 3 .5 2 .6 3 .6 2-86 4 .0 4 .1 4 .2 ♦.4 4 .3 4 .4 4 .1 4 .0 3 .6 3 .8 3 .5 3 .9 4 .0 4 .0 4 .2 3 .6 4 .9 6 .2 3-86 4 .2 4 .3 4 .4 4 .5 4 .5 4 .6 4 .3 4 .2 4 .1 4.1 3.9 4 .3 4 .4 4 .5 4 .8 4 .6 5 .6 6 .7 7 .2 4-81 1-82 2-82 3—B2 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-63 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-65 3-65 4-85 1-66 2-86 2*372.7 2*408.4 2*4 50 .4 P PRELIM INARY Pk&kkt* 6V TE0EKAL OCTOBER 22* 1966 15 BAHK ~OF~ S f . LO UIS GROSS PRIVATE OOHESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT COLLARS ___________ COM P OUNOED ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE ____________ 4-81 -3 0 .9 2-82 -1 3 .8 flO 1 -1 3 .5 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 JL- fti. 4-83 3-a> .J t Z * * - . I - « ? l- M 2-85 3-85 4-85 OOLLARS AfcfcÜAl kATÉS 1-86 2-86 459.5 467.8 7 .4 452.2 - 3 .2 -1 2 .7 4-82 -1 8 .7 - 1 4 .2 - 2 3 .3 - 3 2 .7 1-83 -1 2 .2 2-83 - 3 .0 3 .8 2 .9 8 .7 38 .1 59.5 3-83 1.8 8 .6 8 .8 14.9 3 7 .4 47.2 35.9 1 00 w 1-82 7 .3 14.2 15.4 2 2 .0 4 1 .6 49.8 45.1 54.9 - 6 .8 -1 1 .1 -1 0 .3 409.6 19.6 428.3 481.3 519.7 579.8 CO 1 12.7 19.8 21.7 2 8 .6 4 6 .4 54.0 52.2 61.0 67.4 2-84 11.2 17.3 18.6 2 3 .8 37.1 40.9 36.6 36*8 28.6 - 1 .2 3-84 10.9 16 .3 17.3 2 1 .8 32.5 34*8 30.3 29.0 21.3 3 .3 8 .0 1 8.4 2 7 .0 28.2 23.6 21.2 14.0 0.3 1.1 4-84 BlUlfiNS ÖP IN IT IA L QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER 9 .5 14*8 14*1 659.5 657.5 670.3 661.1 - 5 .4 650.6 1-85 8 .2 12.3 12.7 15.7 2 2 .8 23.2 18.8 16.2 9 .7 - 1 .3 - 1 .4 - 5 .8 - 6 .2 2-85 8 .3 12.2 12.6 15.2 2 1 .5 21.8 17.7 15.3 9 .8 0.9 1.5 - 0 .6 1.8 10.5 3-85 7 .3 10.8 11.0 13.3 18.8 18.7 14.9 12.5 7 .4 - 0 .2 0 .0 - 1 .9 - 0 .7 2 .1 - 5 .7 4-85 7 .4 1 0.6 10.8 12*8 17.8 17.6 14.1 11.9 7 .5 0.9 1.2 - 0 .1 1.3 3 .9 0 .7 7 .6 1-86 8 .3 11*4 11*7 13.7 18.4 18.3 15.1 13.2 9 .3 3 .6 4 .3 3 .7 5 .7 8 .9 8 .3 16.1 2-86 7 .1 9 .9 10.1 11.8 15.9 15.7 12.6 10.7 7 .0 1.9 2 .2 1 .4 2 .6 4 .5 3 .0 6 .1 5 .4 —11.3 2 .6 1.0 - 9 .3 - 7 .1 3-85 4—85 1-86 2-86 3-86 667.1 6 .3 8 .9 9 .0 10.5 14.2 13.9 11.0 9 .1 5 .7 0.9 1.2 0 .3 1 .2 2 .5 0 .9 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 657.4 669.5 25.3 708.3 687.3 674.7P IN IT IA L Q ÜÁfem P- PRELIM INARY GROSS PRIVATE OOHESTIC INVESTMENT IN 1982 OOLLARS __________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE___________ TERMINAL QUARTER B IL L IO N S OF OOLLARS ANNUAL RÀTÉS IN IT IA L QUARTER 4-81 1-82 - 35 .5 2-82 - 18.5 3-82 - 17.4 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 464.2 467.5 2 .9 448.6 - 6 .6 -1 5 .2 4-82 - 21.1 -1 5 .6 -2 3 .5 - 3 1 .0 1-83 - 14.3 2-83 - 4 .0 3-83 0 .8 8 .5 9 .7 4-83 5 .6 13.3 15.1 1-84 10.6 18.3 20.6 2-84 9 .5 16.1 408.8 427.1 - 9 .4 19.1 11.5 4 1 .9 68.9 17 .0 39.5 51.0 35.0 2 2 .3 4 1 .2 49.4 40.5 46.3 2 8 .0 4 4 .8 52.0 46*8 53.1 60.1 17.9 2 3 .6 36.2 39.9 33.4 32.9 26.7 0 .2 - 8 .0 - 1 1 .4 3 .9 4 .1 486.9 524.8 577.2 649.3 649.7 658.9 3—84 9 .2 15.0 16.5 2 1 .2 3 1 .4 33.5 27.4 25.6 19.3 3 .0 5.8 4-84 7 .9 13.0 14.1 17.9 2 6.1 27.1 21.2 18.7 12.6 0 .1 0 .1 - 5 .4 1-85 6 .6 11.2 12.0 15.1 2 1 .9 22.2 16.7 13.9 8.4 - 1 .7 - 2 .4 - 6 .2 2-85 7 .0 11.2 11.9 14.8 2 0 .8 21.0 16.0 13.6 8.9 0 .8 0 .9 - 0 .7 1.8 11.4 3-85 6 .0 9 .8 10.3 12.8 18.0 17.8 13.2 10.8 6.4 -0 .6 - 0 .7 - 2 .3 -1 .2 1 .8 - 7 .0 4-85 6 .0 9 .5 10.0 12.3 16.9 16.7 12.5 10.2 6.4 0 .3 0 .4 - 0 .7 0 .5 3 .1 -0 .7 6 .0 649.9 638.2 - 7 .0 655.6 643.8 653.2 684.0 1-86 6 .8 10.2 10.7 12.8 17.2 17.0 13.2 11.2 7 .8 2 .6 3 .0 2 .5 4 .2 7 .2 5 .8 12.9 2-86 5 .7 8 .8 9 .2 11.1 14.9 14.6 10.9 9 .0 5.8 1.0 1.1 0 .5 1.5 3 .3 1.4 4 .4 3 .6 - 1 0 .8 3-86 4 .9 7 .7 8 .0 9 .7 13.1 12.7 9 .2 7 .3 4 .3 0 .0 - 0 .1 - 0 .8 - 0 .1 1.1 —0 .9 0 .7 - 0 .9 -1 0 .1 - 9 .3 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-83 1-86 2-86 in it ia l OUAftUft P- PRELIMINARY OCTOBER 22« 1986 16 20.2 4-85 664.7 648.6P G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A SES OF 600DS ANO SERVICES IN CUR TERMINAL QUARTER 4-81 1-82 5 .9 2-82 4 .1 IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-82 2-8 2 3-82 4-82 1-83 2—83_ 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 B IL L IO N S OF OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 2-86 622.1 625.7 2 .3 3-82 8.2 14.4 647.1 671.8 4-82 9 .5 10.8 15.3 16.2 1-83 7.1 7 .4 9.1 6 .6 2-83 6 .6 6 .8 7 .9 5 .8 1.0 4 .3 3-83 6« 1 6 .2 7.0 5 .2 1.8 3 .8 3 .3 4-83 5 .0 4 .9 5.3 3 .6 0 .6 1.6 0 .3 1-84 5 .6 5 .6 6 .0 4 .7 2 .5 3.8 3.6 3 .7 10.5 2-84 7.4 7 .6 8 .3 7.4 6 .0 7.7 8 .6 10.4 17.6 668.1 - 2 .2 675.2 680.7 676.1 - 2 .7 693.2 25.2 733.3 7 43.8 3-84 7 .3 7 .4 8 .0 7 .2 6 .0 7.4 8 .0 9 .3 13.6 15.1 5.9 4-84 7 .6 7 .7 8.3 7 .6 6 .6 7 .9 8.5 9 .6 12.9 13.7 8.4 11.0 1-85 7 .6 7 .7 8 .2 7 .6 6 .7 7.9 8.4 9 .3 11.8 12.1 8.1 9 .2 7 .5 2-85 7 .9 8 .0 8 .5 8 .0 7 .2 8.3 8.8 9 .6 11.8 12.0 9 .0 10.0 9 .5 11.6 3-85 8 .4 8 .6 9.1 8 .6 8 .0 9.1 9 .6 10.4 12.4 12.7 10.4 11.5 11.7 13.9 16.3 4-85 8 .7 8 .9 9 .4 9 .0 8 .4 9 .4 9 .9 10.7 12.5 12.8 10.8 11.9 12.1 13.7 14.7 13.1 1-86 7 .6 7.7 8.1 7 .6 7 .0 7.8 8.1 8 .6 9 .9 9 .9 7.8 8 .2 7 .6 7 .6 6 .3 1 .7 763.4 7 77.3 799.0 829.7 855.6 836.7 - 8 .5 860.8 2-86 7 .8 7 .9 8 .3 7.9 7 .3 8.1 8 .4 8 .9 10.1 10.1 8 .3 8.7 8.3 8 .5 7 .7 5 .0 1 .2 12.0 3-86 T .6 7 .7 8.1 7 .7 7 .2 7 .9 8.1 8 .5 9 .6 9 .5 7 .9 8.2 7 .8 7 .8 7 .1 4 .9 2 .3 8 .2 4 .5 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 870.4P INITIAL QUARTER PRELIMINARY GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF 6000S ANO SER V IC ES IN 1982 OOLLARS TERMINAL QUARTER B IL L IO N S OF OOLLARS ANNUAL RATES IN IT IA L QUARTER 4-81 1-82 - 0 .8 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-8* 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 634.6 629.7 2-82 - 1 .9 - 3 .1 3-82 1.4 2 .5 8.4 4-82 3 .8 5 .4 9 .9 11.4 642.5 660.1 6 49.2 1-83 1.7 2 .3 4 .2 2 .1 - 6 .4 2-83 1.6 2 .0 3 .4 1.7 - 2 .8 1.1 3-83 1.6 2 .0 3 .0 1.7 - 1 .3 1.4 1.7 4-83 0 .5 0 .7 1.3 0 .0 - 2 .7 - 1 .4 - 2 .7 - 6 .8 1-84 1 .0 1.2 1.8 0 .8 - 1 .2 0 .2 - 0 .1 - 1 .0 5.1 2-84 2 .6 3 .0 3 .8 3.1 1 .8 3 .6 4 .2 5 .0 11.5 18.4 650.9 653.6 642*2 650.2 678*2 681*0 3-84 2 .5 2 .9 3 .5 3 .0 1 .8 3 .2 3 .7 4 .2 8.1 9 .7 1.7 4-84 2 .8 3 .2 3 .8 3 .3 2 .4 3 .7 4.1 4 .6 7 .7 8 .6 4 .0 6 .3 1-85 2 .8 3 .1 3 .7 3 .2 2 .3 3.5 3 .8 4 .2 6 .6 6 .9 3 .4 4 .2 2 .2 691.5 695.3 2-85 3.1 3 .4 4 .0 3 .6 2 .9 3 .9 4 .3 4 .7 6 .7 7 .1 4 .4 5.4 4 .9 7 .7 3-85 3 .8 4 .2 4 .7 4 .4 3 .8 4 .9 5 .3 5 .8 7 .7 8.2 6 .3 7 .5 7 .8 10.8 13.9 708.3 4-85 4 .2 4 .5 5 .1 4 .8 4 .3 5 .4 5.8 6 .3 8 .0 8 .5 6 .9 8 .0 8 .4 10.5 11.9 1-86 3 .1 3 .4 3 .8 3 .5 2 .9 3 .8 4 .0 4 .2 5 .6 5 .6 3 .9 4 .3 3 .9 4 .3 3 .2 2-86 3 .5 3 .8 4 .2 3 .9 3 .4 4 .2 4 .5 4 .7 6 .0 6 .1 4 .6 5 .0 4 .8 5 .4 4 .8 1.9 - 1 .9 9 .7 3-86 3 .5 3 .7 4 .2 3 .9 3 .4 4 .2 4 .4 4 .6 5 .7 5 .8 4 .5 4 .9 4 .7 5 .1 4 .5 2 .3 - 0 .1 6 .6 3 .6 4-81 1-82 2-8 2 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-8S 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 731.8 1 0 .0 749 .4 - 1 .8 - 1 2 .3 725.2 IN IT IA L QUARTER P- PR ELIM IN A R * . . . OCTOBER 22« 1986 17 742.2 74 8 .8P DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURR E N T OOLLARS C O H POUNOSO ANNUAL RATES OF C H ANCE ________ TERM INAL QUARTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 4-8 i 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 1-94 1-82 3 .7 2-82 5.1 6*^ 3-82 5 .6 6 .6 6 .7 4-82 6 .0 6 .8 6 .9 7 .1 1-83 5 .8 6 .3 6.2 6 .0 4 .6 2-83 6 .3 6 .8 6 .9 6 .9 6 .8 8.7 3-83 6 .5 7 .0 7.1 7 .2 7 .3 8*5 8.2 4-83 7 .5 8 .1 8 .3 8 .7 9 .1 10.5 11.4 14.6 14.4 14.1 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 BtLLttifc* OF OOLLARS ANNUAL JUTES 2*207.2 2*241.8 2*278.6 2*318.1 2*345.7 2*395.4 2*443.2 2*527.9 1-84 8 .2 8 .8 9 .1 9 .6 10.0 11*4 12.3 2-84 7 .9 8 .4 8 .6 8 .9 9 .2 10*1 10.5 11.2 9.6 5.2 3-84 7 .9 8 .3 8 .5 8 .7 9 .0 9.7 9.8 10.3 8.8 6 .3 7 .4 4-84 7 .7 8 .0 8 .2 8*4 8 .5 9 .0 9.1 9 .3 8 .0 6 .0 6 .4 5.4 2*612.7 2*646.3 2*693.8 2*729.6 1-85 7 .4 7 .7 7 .8 7*9 8 .0 8.4 8.3 8.3 7.1 5.5 5 .5 4 .6 3 .8 2-85 7 .8 8 .1 8 .2 8*4 8 .5 8 .9 8*9 9 .0 8.1 7 .0 7 .4 7 .4 8 .4 13.2 3-85 7 .1 7 .4 7 .5 7 .5 7 .6 7 .8 7 .7 7 .7 6 .7 5.5 5 .6 5 .1 5 .0 5 .6 4-85 7 .1 7 .4 7 .4 7 .5 7 .5 7 .8 7 .7 7 .6 6.8 5.8 5 .9 5 .6 5 .6 6 .2 2 .8 7 .3 1-86 7 .2 7 .4 7 .5 7 .5 7 .5 7 .8 7.7 7 .6 6.9 6 .0 6 .1 5 .9 6 .0 6 .5 4 .4 7 .4 7 .5 2-86 7 .1 7 .3 7 .4 7 .4 7 .4 7.6 7.5 7 .5 6.8 6 .0 6 .1 5 .9 6 .0 6 .4 4 .8 7 .0 6 .8 6 .0 3-86 6 .8 6 .9 7 .0 7 .0 7 .0 7.1 7 .0 6 .9 6.2 5.4 5.5 5 .2 5 .2 5 .4 3 .9 5 .3 4 .7 3 .3 0 .6 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 2*755.4 2*842.3 2*832.0 - 1 .4 2*882.2 2*935.1 2*978.5 2*983.0P IN IT IA L ÚUAfcTÉR P- PRELIM INARY DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN 1982 OOLLARS ______ CUMP^NOEg, AILHyAW «ATES OF CHANCE________ B IL L IO N S OF OOLLARS ANNUAL feATES W l l é K QUARTER 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 2*245.7 1-82 - 1 .4 2-82 0 .6 2 .7 3-82 0 .6 1 .6 0 .4 2*260.9 2*263.4 2*276.1 4-82 1 .0 1.8 1.3 2 .3 1-83 1 .2 1 .9 1.6 2 .2 2*2 2-83 1.7 2 .3 2 .2 2 .8 3 .1 2*288.4 4 .0 2*311.1 2 *335.4 4 .3 3-83 2.1 2 .6 2 .6 3 .2 3 .5 4.1 4-83 3 .0 3 .7 3 .8 4 .5 5 .1 6.1 7.2 10.2 1-84 3 .7 4 .4 4 .6 5 .3 6 .0 6.9 7 .9 9 .8 9 .4 2-84 3 .6 4 .1 4 .3 4 .9 5 .3 6 .0 6 .5 7 .2 5.7 3-84 3 .6 4 .1 4 .2 4 .7 5 .1 5.6 5 .9 6 .3 5 .0 2.9 3.6 4-84 3 .4 3 .9 4 .0 4 .4 4 .7 5.0 5.2 5 .4 4 .2 2 .5 2 .7 2 *392.7 2*446.9 2*460.3 2 .2 2*481.9 1.8 2*493.1 2*495.7 1-85 3 .2 3 .6 3 .7 4 .0 4 .2 4 .4 4 .5 4 .5 3.4 2 .0 1 .9 1.1 0*4 2-85 3 .6 4 .0 4 .1 4 .4 4 .7 4 .9 5 .1 5 .2 4 .4 3.4 3 .7 3 .7 4 .7 9 .1 3-85 3 .1 3 .4 3.5 3 .7 3 .8 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 3.1 2.1 2 .1 1.7 1.7 2 .3 - 4 .0 4-85 3 .0 3 .3 3 .4 3 .6 3 .7 3 .9 3.9 3 .8 3.0 2.2 2 .2 1.9 1 .9 2 .4 - 0 .8 2 .6 2*550.8 2*524.7 2*540.7 2*581.2 1-86 3 .2 3 .5 3 .6 3 .8 3 .9 4.1 4.1 4 .1 3.4 2.7 2 .8 2 .6 2 .8 3 .4 1.6 4 .5 6 .5 2-86 3 .5 3 .7 3 .8 4 .0 4 .2 4 .3 4 .3 4 .4 3.8 3 .2 3 .3 3 .3 3 .5 4 .1 2 .9 5 .4 6 .8 7 .1 3-86 3 .1 3 .4 3 .4 3 .6 3 .7 3.8 3 .8 3 .8 3.2 2 .6 2 .7 2 .6 2 .7 3 .1 1.9 3 .4 3 .7 2 .3 - 2 .2 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 2 *625.7 2*611.2P P- PREL I M I N A R Y ^RE^ÁRÉfc A f7 e & É A A t ftTSEffVE SANK OF S I * LO UIS OCTOBER 22* 1986 18 CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES* COWPOWOEO ARKUAl RATES Of CHANCE TERMINAL QUARTER 3-81 4-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 AkMiAL AAT£S 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 141.0 -9 .1 107.5 - 1 .8 3-82 -2 5 .7 -3 0 .5 -0 .4 4-82 - 2 2 .9 -2 6 .0 - 3 .9 1-83 -1 6 .3 -17.7 107.0 107.3 1.1 104.3 - 5 .0 -1 0 .7 110.6 4*5 6 .2 2 6 .4 - 6 .9 14*0 18.3 24.7 4 7 .3 3-83 -1 .2 0 .0 19.8 24.7 31*4 4 9 .5 62*5 4-83 - 0 .3 0 .8 17.9 21.6 26.1 3 7.5 4 1 .4 28 .3 7 .0 1-84 0 .6 1 .7 16.7 19.6 23.0 31.2 3 2 .4 21.4 7 .8 8 .6 0.1 1*1 14.2 16.3 18.7 2 4 .4 24.1 14.4 3 .6 2 .0 - 2 .0 -1 .4 9 .6 11.2 12.5 16.3 14.7 5 .8 - 3 .7 «0 2 .9 - 7 .2 1 r* -44*6 -6 6 .2 -3 2 .9 -42 .4 00 1 OJ 1-82 2-82 3-84 S lU t Ö f c S ÖF " DOLLARS IN IT IA L QUARTER 126.6 71*7 141.0 53.9 143.4 146.4 - 4 .3 144.8 - 7 .0 -14 .0 -22 .6 135.8 134.1 -4 .9 4-84 - 2 .3 - 1 .7 8.4 9 .5 10.4 13.4 11.6 3 .9 - 3 .9 - 6 .5 - 1 1 .0 -14.2 1-85 - 3 .8 - 3 .4 5.4 6 .1 6 .6 8.8 6 .7 - 0 .3 - 7 .2 - 9 .8 -1 3 .9 -1 6 .9 -1 3 .9 - 2 2 .1 2-85 - 3 .4 -3 .0 5*2 5 .8 6 .2 8.1 6 .2 0 .0 - 5 .9 - 7 .9 -1 0 .9 -1 2 .5 - 8 .8 - 1 0 .7 126.0 126.7 2 .2 133.4 3-85 - 2 .0 - 1 .5 6 .4 7 .0 7 .5 9 .4 7 .8 2 .4 -2 .7 -4 .0 - 6 .0 - 6 .3 - 1 .8 - 0 .7 12.1 2 2 .9 4-85 - 0 .8 - 0 .3 7.2 7 .9 8 .4 10.2 8.8 3 .9 - 0 .5 - 1 .4 - 2 .8 - 2 .5 2 .1 4 .0 14.4 21.1 1-86 - 1 .5 —1.0 5.9 6 .4 6 .8 8.3 6 .9 2 .4 -1 .7 -2 .6 - 3 .9 - 3 .8 - 0 .3 0 .7 7 .3 9 .0 2 .7 -1 1 .5 2-86 -0 .9 - 0 .5 6 .1 6 .6 6 .9 8 .3 7 .0 2 .9 - 0 .8 - 1 .5 - 2 .6 - 2 .4 0 .9 1*9 7 .5 8 .9 4 .6 - 2 .0 8 .5 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 139.4 19.2 135.2 138.0 IN IT IA L QUARTER ♦ NATIONAL INCOME B A S IS PREPARÉ!) ÍY ÍÉ6É*AL «JÉAVÉ BANK OF ST. LOUIS OCTOtER 22. l i l t HISTORICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA The revised estimates for the series in the regular quarterly presentation of NIPA tables for the years 1983 and 1984 and for 1984:11 - 1985:111, will be published in the December 1985 Survey of Current Business♦ Revised estimates for all NIPA series for 1929-82 and for 1982-84 will be available in the spring (1986) in separate volumes. These data are currently available on tape and hard-copy printout. For further information and prices, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 19 INV ENTOR IES COMPARED WI TH MONTHLY S A L E S * MANUFACTURING AND TRA 1 . 6 8 6 8 1 . 6 4 6 4 6 0 6 0 5 6 5 6 5 2 5 2 4 8 4 8 1 . 4 4 4 4 1 . 4 0 4 0 1 . 3 6 3 6 3 2 3 2 2 8 2 8 2 4 2 4 1 9 7 2 «RATIOS BASED ON SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA. SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BUSINESS RECESSIONS. 1 9 7 3 1 9 7 4 1 91 79 58 4 1 91 79 68 5 1 91 79 78 6 1 9 7 8 SOURCE: U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE LATEST DATA PLOTTED? AUGUST PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUI S 20 1 9 7 9
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