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n i m o n A L Ec ono mitc r e d d s
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

MONTH ENDING: September 30, 1982

RELEASED: October 29, 1982

The recovery in the nation's output continued at an anemic pace in the third
quarter. From the second to the third quarter, preliminary estimates show that real
GNP rose at a 0.8 percent annual rate, following a 2.1 percent rate o f increase in the
prior quarter. In both quarters, output expansion reflected inventory developments.
Real final sales, which exclude inventory investment, fe ll at 0.9 and 0.6 percent rates
in the second and third quarters, respectively. As a result, inventories measured
relative to sales have increased sharply in recent months.
Both output and sales have been stagnant for three years. In the third
quarter of this year, real GNP and real final sales were slightly lower than three
years earlier, the longest period of no growth in the post-World War II era. The
industrial sector has performed even worse, as industrial production in September
was virtually the same as five years earlier.
Continued growth in the supply of resources available has been reflected in
falling utilization rates, including falling utilization of the labor force (a rising
unemployment rate) and a declining rate of capacity utilization in manufacturing.
Improvements in utilization rates require that the demand for resources increase
faster than the supply, which tends to occur when real GNP expands faster than the
nation's capacity to produce output. When both measures rise at the same rate, the
utilization of resources tends to be unchanged. For example, the unemployment rate
and capacity utilization rate were about the same in the third quarter o f 1979 as five
years earlier, despite real GNP growth at a 3.6 percent rate; capacity output grew
about the same rate over the period.
The level of employment is about the same as three years earlier, but the
civilian labor force has expanded at a 1.7 percent rate, swelling the labor force by an
additional 5.5 million persons. The unemployment rate climbed to 9.9 percent of the
labor force in the third quarter, up from 5.8 percent in the third quarter of 1979.
The utilization o f existing capital stocks also fe ll sharply over the past three
years. The Federal Reserve Board's capacity utilization rate in manufacturing fell
over 18 percent in the past three years to 69.6 percent in the third quarter of this
year, the lowest level in the history of this series. Nevertheless, the pace of business
spending for new plant and equipment has been quite strong. During the past three
years, real nonresidential fixed investment has been historically high as a percent of
real GNP, despite a temporary downward swing in the 1980 recession. Typically, this
ratio falls during recessions and, at times, for a period during the initial stage of
recovery. The pace o f plant and equipment investment accelerated relative to real
GNP from the second quarter of 1981 to the first quarter o f this year, however.
Since then, it has fallen from the post-World War II peak o f 11.7 percent to 11.3
percent and 10.9 percent in the second and third quarters, respectively. The unusual
strength o f investment spending reflects, in part, a shift toward shorter-lived
equipment versus plant, and an associated higher depreciation component of gross
investment spending.




—John A. Tatom

T O T A L C I V I L I A N E MP L O Y ME N T
C OMPOUND E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E
INITIAL
2-81

3-81

4-81

3-81

6-61

7-61

6-81

9-81

10-81

T H O U SANOS
OF PERSONS

MONT H

11-81

12-61

1-62

2-82

3-82

4-82

5-82

6-82

7-62

4. 1

100,406

101,045
0,1

-2,6

-7.1

1.4

-0,1

-1,1

1
.0

100,430
100,864

5.3

100,840

-0,1

-0.8

2.5

-0.3

0.3

-0,3

-1.5

-2 .3

-0.7

-3.6

-6.7

0.4

-0.1

-1.1

-1,7

-0.3

-2.1

-2.9

100,343

1.0

0.1

-0.3

-1,2

-1 ,7

-0.6

-2.0

-2*6

-0.5

-2.0

-0.5

- l . l

-1 .9

-2.4

-1,6

-3.0

-3.6

-2.5

-4.3

-2.2

-1.4

-2.5

-3.0

-2.0

-6.5
99,581
99,590

-0.5

-0.9

-1.5

-1.9

-1.3

-2.2

-2.5

-2.2

-2.3

- 0 , 1

-0.5

-0,9

-1,5

-1,8

-1.2

-2.0

-2.3

-1.5

-2.0

-2.0

-0.5

-0.5

-1.2

99,492

-0.6

-1.0

-1.5

-1,8

-1.3

-2.0

-2.2

-1.6

-2.0

-2.0

-O.

-1.0

-1.5

99,340

0.0

-0.2

-0.7

-0,9

-0.3

-0.9

-1.0

-0.2

-0.4

-0.1

-0.2

-0.5

-0.9

-1.2

-0.7

-1.2

-1.3

-0 .7

-0.9

-0.7

0.3

100,117
0.4

2.6

-4.1

-0.2

-0.5

-0 .9

-1.1

-0.6

-1.1

-1.2

-0.6

-0.8

-0.7

0.2

0.3

1.6

-2.3

-0.4

-0.2

-0.4

-0,

-1.0

-0.5

-0.9

-1.0

-0.5

-0.6

-0.4

0.3

0.4

0,5

1.5

-1.1

0.5

1.3

-0.2

-0.5

-0,

-1,0

-0.6

-1.0

-1.0

-0.5

-0.7

-0.5

0.1

0.2

0,2

0.9

-1.2

-0.2

-0.1

-1.4

2-81

3-81

4-81

5-81

6-81

7-81

8-81

9-81

10-81

1 1- 81

12- 81

1-82

2-62

4-82

5-82

6-82

7-82

8-82

INITIAL

3-82

99,839
99,720

MONT H

P A Y R O L L E MP L O Y ME N T
C OMPOUND E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF
TERMINAL
MONT H

0.7

CHANGE

MONT H

INITIAL

THOUSANDS
OF

2-81

3-81

4-01

5-81

6-81

7-81

8-81

9-81

10-81

11-81

12-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

5-62

6-8 2

7-62

91,014

3-81

1.3

4-81

1.2

1,1

91,099
91,131

1.0

0,8

0.4

1.2

1,2

1.2

2,1

7-81

1.3

1 .3

1.3

1,8

91,286
1.5

91,396
91,322

0.9

0,8

0.7

0,8

0.2

-1.0

0.9

0,8

0,7

0,8

0.3

-0.2

0.5

10-81

0.5

0,4

0,3

0,2

-0.2

-0.8

-0.6

-1.8

11-81

0 .

- Of . 3

-0.8

-1.3

-1.4

-2.4

12-81

-0.4

-0.5

-0,8

-0,9

-1.4

-2.0

-2.2

-3.1

-3.8

-4,6

1-82

-0.5

-0,7

-0,9

-1,1

-1.5

-2.0

-2.3

-2.9

-3.3

-3,5

-2.4

2-82

-0.5

-0,7

-0,8

-1 ,0

-1.4

-1.8

-1.9

-2.4

-2.5

-2,3

-1.2

3-82

-0.6

-0,8

-1,0

-1,1

-1.4

-1.8

-1.9

-2.3

-2.4

-2.3

-1.5

-1,0

-2.0

-0.8

-0,9

-1, 1

-1,3

-1.6

-1.9

-2.0

-2.4

-2.5

-2.4

-1,8

-1,7

-2.5

-2.9

5-82

-0.7

-0,8

-0,9

-1. 1

-1.3

-1.6

-1.7

-2.0

-2.0

-1.8

-1,3

-1,0

-1.3

-0.9

1.1

6-82

-0.9

-1,0

-1,2

-1 ,3

-1.6

-1.9

-1.9

-2.2

-2.3

-2.2

-1,8

-1,6

-2.0

-2.0

-1.6

!*

8-81
9-81

1
CD

5-81
6-81

1

PERSONS

8-82

-0 ,0

-0,2

91,363
91,224
90,996

-3.0

90,642
90,460
90,459

-0 ,0

90,304
90,083
90,166
89,839

-4.3

7-82

-1.1

-1,2

-1,4

-1.5

-1.8

-2.0

-2.1

-2.4

-2.5

-2.4

-2, 1

-2,0

-2.4

-2. 5

-2.4

-4. 1

-4.0

8-82

-1.2

-1 .4

-1.5

-1.6

-1.9

-2.2

-2.2

-2.5

-2.6

-2.5

-2, 3

-2,2

-2.6

-2.7

-2.7

-3.9

-3.8

-3. 5

9-82

-1,3

-1 ,5

-1,6

-1 .7

-2.0

-2.2

-2.3

-2.5

-2.6

-2.6

-2,4

-2.3

-2.7

-2.8

-2.8

-3.7

-3. 5

-3.3

1

2-81

3-81

4-8\

5-61

6-8 1

7-81

8-81

9-81

10-81

1 1- 81

12-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

5-82

6-82

7-82

8-82

0

INITIAL
P-

89,535
89 » 2 6 6 P
89,038P

MONT H

PRELIMINARY




PREPARED 8 Y F EDERAL
OCTOBER 8 , 1962

2

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LOUIS

EMPLOYMENT
RATIO

SCALE

M I L L I ONS

RATIO

OF

197 4

PERSONS

1975

SEASONALLY

1976

1977

MILLIONS

ADJUSTED

1978

1979

1980
S OU R CE :

P ERCENTAGES

ARE

L ATEST

P L OTTE O:

DATA

ANNUAL

RATES

OF

S EPTEMBER

CHANGE

FOR

PERIODS

1981

PERSONS

1982

U . S . DE P ARTME NT

OF

LABOR

ST.

LOUIS

I NO I G A T E D .

PRELIMINARY
PREPARED

UNEMPLOYMENT
SEASONALLY

PERCENT

OF

SCALE

BY F E D E R A L

RESERVE

BANK

OF

RA T E

ADJ USTED

PERCENT
I I . 0

10.

10. 0

9 .

9.0

8

8 . 0

.

7 .

6

7 . 0

.

6 . 0

5 .

5 . 0

3.




3.0
S OU R CE :
P E R C E NT
LATEST

OF
DATA

CIVILIAN
P L OTTE D:

L ABOR

U.S.

DEP ARTME NT

OF

L ABOR

ST.

LOUIS

F ORCE

S E P TE MB E R
PREPARED

3

BY

FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANK

OF

CO NSU ME R P R I C E I N D E X FOR A L L UR BA N C O N S U M E R S , S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D
_______________ COMPO UN DED A N N U A L R A T E S OF C HA NG E ____________________________________
T E R M I N A L ______________________________________________________________ _________________ I N I T I A L MON T H______________________________________________________________________________
MONT H
3-81
2-61
4-81
5-81
6-81
7-61
7-82
8-61
9-81 10-81 11-81 12-81
2-82
8-82
6-82
3-82
4-82
5-82
1-62
3-81

7.0

4-6 1

6.1

5.1

5-61

7 *3

7*5

1967*100

265,4
266,5
9,9

268.6

6-81

7.8

8.1

9.6

9.3

7-61

9.1

9.7

11*3

11,9

14,6

8-81

9.3

9.8

11,0

11,3

12,3

10.1

270**
273.7
275.9

9-81

9.9

10*4

11.5

12.0

12.8

12.0

13,9

10-61

9.3

9.7

10.5

10.6

10,9

9.7

9,5

5.3

11-81

9.0

9.2

9,8

9.8

9.9

8,8

0*4

5.7

276*?
260*1
6.2

281*5

12-81

8.6

8.7

9.2

9.1

9.1

8,0

7,5

5.4

5.5

4.8

1-62

8.1

8.2

8.5

8.4

8,2

7,2

6.6

4.9

4,8

4,1

3,5

2-82

7,7

7,7

8*0

7,6

7*6

6*6

6,0

4,5

4,3

3,7

3,2

3,0

3-82

6,6

6.7

6.9

6.6

6.3

5,3

4*6

3,2

2,6

1,9

1.0

-0,2

-3,3

4-6 2

6*5

6,5

6,6

6,3

6,0

5*0

4*4

3*2

2,6

2,1

1,5

0,8

-0,2

5-62

6,9

6.8

7,0

6,7

6,5

5.7

5,3

4,2

4,1

3,7

3,5

3,5

3,7

7,4

12,0

6-62

7.2

7.3

7.4

7.2

7.1

6,4

6,0

5.2

5,2

5.0

5,1

5,4

6,0

9,3

12,7

13,3

7-82

7.2

7.3

7.4

7.2

7,1

6.5

6,1

5,4

5,4

5,3

5.4

5.7

6.3

8,8

10,8

10,2

262*6
263*4
284.1
283*3
3.0

284.0
286*7
289.7
7,3

291*4

6-62

7.0

7.0

7.1

7.0

6.8

6.2

5.9

5.2

5.2

5.1

5.1

5,4

5.8

7,7

8,?

7,9

5,3

3,3

9-82

6.8

6.7

6.8

6.7

6.5

5,9

5.6

4.9

4.9

4.8

4.8

5.0

5.2

6.7

7.5

6,4

4,2

2,7

2,1

2-81

3-81

4-81

5-81

6-81

7-8 1

8-81

9-61

10-81

11-81

12-81

1-82

2-6 2

3-82

4-82

5-82

6-82

7-6 2

8-82

INITIAL

PRODUCER P R I C E I N O E X , F I N I S H E D
_____________________ C O MP O U N D E D A N N U A L

3-81

4-81

5-81

6-81

7-61

8-81

9-81

10-81

FEDERAL
1982

RESERVE

BANK

OF

S T ♦ LOUIS

GO O DS - S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D »
R A T E S OF C H A N G E _____________________
1967

MONT H

INITIAL
2-81

292*7

MONT H

P R E P A R E D BY
OCTOBER 2 5 ,

TERMINAL
MONT H

292*2

1 1-81

12-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

5-82

6-82

7-82

■

1 00

8-82

3-81

14.1

265.7

4-81

13,0

11,9

268.2

5-81

9,4

7.2

2.7

6-81

8.8

7.1

4.8

6.9

7-81

7,9

6,5

4.7

5.7

4,5

8-81

7.2

5,9

4,4

5,0

4.1

3,6

9-81

6.5

5.3

4.0

4.3

3.4

2.9

2.2

268.8
270.3
271.3
272.1
272.6

10-81

6.6

5.5

4.5

4.9

4.4

4.3

4.7

7.3

11-81

6.5

5,6

4.7

5,0

4.7

4.7

5.1

6.6

5.8

274.2
275.5

12-81

6.2

5.4

4.6

4.8

4.5

4.5

4.7

5.5

4.7

3.5

1-62

6.2

5,5

4,8

5.1

4,8

4,8

5,1

5.8

5.4

5,1

2-82

5,5

4*8

4, 1

4,2

3.9

3,8

3,9

4,2

3,4

2,6

2,2

-2,1

3-82

4,?

4,2

3*5

3,3

3,1

3,0

3,2

2,4

1,5

0,9

-1.9

-1,7

4-82

4.6

4,0

3,3

3,4

3,0

2,9

2,8

2,8

2,1

1,4

0,9

-1,0

-0.4

0,9

5-82

4.3

3.6

3.0

3,0

2t7

2,5

2,4

2.4

1,7

1 *0

0,5

-1,0

-0,6

0,0

.J * 6 _

276.3
6.7

277.8
277.3
276.9
277,1
-0,9

276.9

6-8 2

4.8

4.2

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.0

2.6

2.5

1.6

2.6

4,1

5.8

12.8

7-82

4.9

4.4

3.9

4.0

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.5

3.2

3. 1

2.5

3.5

4.8

6.2

9.9

7. 1

279.7

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.2

3.9

3.6

3.7

3.2

4.2

5.4

6.5

9.1

7.3

7.5

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.6

3. 7

3.3

3. 1

3. 1

2.6

3.3

4.2

4.8

6.3

4.2

N)

2-81

3-81

4-81

6-81

7-81

8-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

6-82

•DATA

F ÜR

FÜUR

MO N T H S




AGO R E V I S E D

TO R E F L E C T

LATE

INITIAL
REPORTING

4

1

12-81

K
>

11- 81

282.6

CD

10-81

CD

9-81

CD
N>

5-8 1

283.0
1

4.2

3.8

O
D

4.1

CD

4. 6
4.2

K)

5. 1
4.7

V
*
1

8-82
9-82

1

281.3

MONT H

PR E P A R E D 0 Y
OCTOBER 1 5,

FEDERAL
1982

RESERVE

BANK.

OF

ST.

LO U IS




RATIO

PR I C E S

SCALE

C P I -U

FOR AI L

URBAN CONSUMERS

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL
LATEST

RAT|0 SCALE

DATA PLOTTED,

RATES OF CHANGE f o r

per io d s

in o icat ed

PREPARED

ratio

PRODUCER

scale

PERCENTAGES
LATEST

BY FEDERAL

R ES ER VE

PR I C E S

ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P ERI OD S

DATA PLOTTED!

.

SEP TEMBER

BANK OF

ST.

L O UI S

RATIO

SCALE

INDICATED.

SEP TE MB ER
PREPAREO

5

BY FEDERAL

R ES ER V E

BANK OF ST.

L O UI S

PRO DU CER P R I C E
_________________

I N O E X , F I N I S H E D CONSUMER FOODS - S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D *
COMPO UN DED A N N U A L R A T E S OF C HA NG E ________________________________

T E R M I N A L ________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONT H_________________________________________________________________________________1 9 6 7
MONT H
4-81
5-81
6-81
8-82
6-82
4-82
5-82
7-82
3-81
7-81
3-82
1-82
2-82
10-81 11-81 12-81
9-81
2-81
8-81

4-81

5.6

1*9

5-81

4.7

2*4

2*9

6-81

5.0

3*5

4*4

252*7
253.3
5.8

254.5
256*6

7-81

6.0

5*2

6*3

8*1

9-81

5,2

4*3

4*9

5 *<>

5*5

0*9

9-81

3.5

2.6

2*7

2.6

1 *6

-2*5

-5.9

1 *8

1*6

0*i>

-2*5

-4*1

10-81

2.8

1 *8

10*4

256.8
255.5
2 55.0

-2*3

253.2

11-81

1.5

0*5

0*3

-0*1

-1*2

-3*9

-5*5

-5 * 3

-8*1

i2-ai

1 *2

0*4

0*2

-0*2

-1*2

-3*3

-4.4

-3*9

-4.6

-0.9

1-82

2*4

1 *7

1*7

1*5

0*9

-0*5

-0*8

0*5

1*4

6.6

14.7

253.0
255.9
257.1

2-82

2.7

2.1

2.1

2*0

1*5

0*3

0*2

1*5

2*5

6*3

10* 1

5*8

3-82

2.4

1.8

1 *8

1*7

1*2

0*1

0.0

1*0

1*7

4.3

6.1

2*1

-1*4

4-82

3*7

3*2

3*3

3*4

3.1

2*3

2*5

3.8

4.8

7*7

9.9

8*4

9*7

256.8
261.1

22*1

3.9

3*5

3*6

3*7

3*5

2*9

3*1

<t*3

5*2

7*6

9*4

8 .2

9*0

14*6

7*6

6-82

4.0

3.7

3.8

3.9

3*7

3.1

3*3

4.4

5*3

7.4

8.8

7.7

8.1

11.5

6*6

7-82

2.7

2*3

2.3

2.3

2*0

1*3

1 *4

2.1

2*6

4. 1

4.8

3.2

2.7

3*8

-1*7

-6.0

-16.4

8-82

2*6

2*2

2.2

2.2

2.0

1*3

1.4

2. 1

2*5

3.8

4.4

3.0

2.5

3*3

-0*9

-3.6

-7.9

1.4

9-82

2.1

1 *7

1.7

1.7

1.4

0* 8

0.8

1.3

1.7

2.7

3. 1

1.8

1.2

1*6

-2.0

-4 .3

-7*4

-2.5

-6.3

2-81

3-81

4-81

5-81

6-81

8-81

9-81

10-81

1 1- 81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

5-8 2

6-82

7-82

8-82

L"

1

CD

100

252.3

9.5

3-81

«

»DATA

F OR

FOUR

MO N T H S

AGO

REVISED

TO

7-81

REFLECT

LATE

INITIAL
REPORTING

12-81

262.7
5*6

263.9
260.0
260.3
258.9

MONT H

PROOUC E R P R I C E I N D E X , F I N I SHED G O O D S ,
________________________________C OMP OU N D E D A N N U A L

E X C L U D I N G FOODS - S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D *
R A T E S OF C HA NG E ____________________________________

T E R M I N A L _______________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONT H_________________________________________________________________________________ 1 9 6 7
MONT H
7-8 2
7-81
1-82
2-82
3-82
4-82
5-82
6-8 2
8-82
8-81
9 -8 1 10-81 11-81 12-81
2-81
3-81
4-81
5-81
6-81

-

268.4

3-81

16.0

4-81

15.4

14.8

5-81

1 0* 8

8.3

2.2

6-81

1 0* 1

8. 1

5.0

7.8

7-81

8*5

6.7

4.2

5.2

2.7

8-ei

7*8

6.2

4.1

4.8

3.3

4.0

9-81

7*4

6.1

4.4

4.9

4.0

4.7

10-81

7.7

6.6

5.3

5.9

5.5

6.4

7.6

10.0

1 1- 81

8.0

7.1

6.0

6.7

6.4

7.4

8.5

10*2

10.4

12-81

7.7

6.8

5.8

6.3

6.1

6.8

7.5

8*2

7.3

4.4

1-82

7.4

6.6

5.7

6. 1

5.9

6.4

6.9

7*3

6.5

4.6

4.8

2-82

6.4

5*5

4.7

4.9

4.6

4.9

5.0

4*9

3*7

1.6

0.2

271.5
272.0
273.7
274.3
275.2
5.4

276.4
278.6
280.9
281.9
283.0
-4.2

282.0

3-82

5.7

4.9

4. 1

4.3

3.9

4.0

4.0

3*8

2*6

0.7

-0.4

-2.9

-1.7

4-82

5.0

4.2

3.3

3.4

3.0

3.0

2.9

2*6

1*4

-0.3

-1.5

-3.5

-3*1

—4 . 6

5-82

4.4

3.6

2.8

2.9

2.4

2.4

2.2

1*9

0*7

-0*8

-1.8

-3.4

-3.1

-3.8

-3.0

6-82

5.0

4.3

3.6

3.7

3.4

3.5

3.4

3.2

2*4

1 *3

0.8

0.0

1*1

2*0

5.5

14.6

7-82

5.6

5.0

4.4

4.5

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.4

3*8

3.0

2. 8

2.4

3.8

5.2

8.7

15.0

15.4

4.8

4.6

4.8

4.8

4.8

4.3

3.6

3.5

3.4

4.7

6.0

8.8

13.0

12.2

9.2

4.5

4.3

4.4

4.4

4.3

3.8

3.2

3.1

2.9

3*9

4.9

6.9

9.5

7.9

4.3

-0.4

6-81

7-81

8-81

9-81

10-81

11-81

12-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

5-82

6-82

7 —8 2

8-82

8-82

5.8

5.2

4.7

9-82

5.5

4.9

4.4

2-81

3-81

4-81

»DATA

F OR F O U R

100

MON T HS




5-8 1

AGO R E V I S E D

TO

REFLECT

LATE

INITIAL
REPORT ING

201.6
280.5

286.4
288.5
288.4

MON T H

P R E P A R E D BY
OCTOBER 1 5 ,

6

279.8
283.0

FEDERAL
1982

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST*

LO UIS

INDUSTRIAL
RATIO

PRODUCTION

SCALE

RATIO

1967-100

SEASONALLY

1974

1975

PERC EN TAG ES
L AT EST

ARE

1976

ANNUAL

DATA P L O T T E D :

RATES

1977
OF

SEPTEMBER

CHANGE

1978
FOR

1979

PERlOOS

SCALE
1967-100

ADJUSTED

1980

1981

1982

IN D ICAT E D .

PRELIM INARY
PR EPAR ED

BY

FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LOUIS

IN DUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
C OMP OU N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S O f C H A N G E
TERMINAL
MONTH

INITIAL
2-81

3-81

3-81

4-01

5-81

6-81

7-81

8-81

9-81

10-81

1967

MONT H

11-81

12-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

5-82

6-82

7-62

*

100

5 .- 92

2*4

152.1

4-81

0,4

-1.6

5-81

2,4

2.*

6.5

6-ei

2.2

2.1

4.0

1.6

7-81

3*4

3.6

5.4

4.8

151.9
152.7
152.9
153.9

8.1

8-81

2*4

2.4

3.4

2.4

2.8

-2.3

9-81

-0.2

-0.7

-0.5

-2.1

-3.4

-8.6

-14.6

10-81

-2.7

-3.4

-3.7

-5.6

-7.3

-11.9

-16.3

-18.1

11-81

“* .8

-5.7

-6.2

-8.2

-10.0

-14.1

-17.7

-19.2

-20,3

12-81

-6.6

-7.6

-8.3

-10.2

-12.0

-15.6

-18.6

-19.9

0
<
M
1

153.6

1-82

-7.9

-8.9

-9.7

-11.6

-13.3

-16.4

-19.0

-20.1

-20.7

-20.9

2-82

-5.9

—6 . 6

-7. 1

-8.5

-9,6

-11.9

-13.4

-13,2

-12.0

-9.0

151.6
149.1
146.3

&
■

143.4

-21.4

140.7

-20,4
-2, 1

142.9

20.5

3-82

-6.2

-6.8

-7.3

-8.6

-9.6

-11.7

-12.9

-12,6

-11.5

-9.1

—4 , 7

4.3

-9,6

4-82

—6 . 6

-7.2

-7.7

-8 ,9

-9.9

-11.7

-12.8

-12.5

-11.6

-9,7

-6.5

-1.4

-10,8

-12,0

5-82

-6*7

-7.3

-7.7

-8,0

-9.7

-11,3

-12.3

-12,0

-11.1

-9.5

-6,9

-3,2

-10.0

-10.1

-8.2

141,7
140.2
139.2

6-82

-6.5

-7.1

-7.5

-8.5

-9.3

-10.7

-11.5

-11.2

-10.3

-8,7

-6,4

-3,4

-8.6

-8.2

-6 .3

-4.2

7-82

-6.1

— 6 ♦6

-7.0

-7 .9

-8.5

-9.8

-10.5

-10.0

-9.1

-7,6

-5.4

-2,7

—6 , 7

-6.0

-3.9

-1.7

0.9

8-82

-6. 1

— 6 •6

—6 . 9

-7 .7

-8.4

-9.5

-10.1

-9 ,7

-8.8

-7,4

-5.5

-3,1

—6 , 6

-6.0

-4.4

-3.1

-2.6

-5.9

9-82

-6. 1

—6 . 6

-6.9

-7.7

-8.2

-9.3

-9.8

-9,4

-8.6

-7,3

-5.6

-3,6

-6,6

-6.1

-4.9

-4.0

-4.0

-6.3

-6.7

2-81

3-81

4-81

5-81

6-81

7-81

8-81

9-81

10-81

11-81

12-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

5-82

6-82

7-82

8-82

INITIAL
P-

138.7
130.8
1 3 8 . IP
1 3 7 . 3P

MONT H

PRELIMINARY




PR E PA RE O BY
O C T O B E R 15*

7

FEDERAL
1982

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LO UIS

PERSONAL
RATIO

S,C A L E

TRILLIONS

MONTHL Y

OF

DOLLARS

TOTALS

INCOME
AT

SEASONALLY

RATIO

ANNUAL.RATES

TRILLIONS

ADJUSTED

OF

SCALE

DOL LARS

2 .
2 .

2 .
2.

2 .

2 .

. 2

0.

1974

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979

1980

S OURCE i
PERCENTAGES

ARE

LATEST

P L OTTE D:

DATA

ANNUAL

RATES

OF

S E P TE MB E R

CHANGE

FOR

PERIODS

INITIAL

TERMINAL
MONT H
3-81

9.2

BY

8,7

7.2

6-81

7-81

8-81

9-81

10-81

FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LOUI S

CHANGE
B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL R A T ES

MONT H

U-81

12-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

5-82

6-82

7-82

8-82

6.7

5-81

5-8 1

COMMERCE

11.7

4-81

4-81

1982
OF

I NDI CATED.

P E R S O N A L I N C OME
CO MP O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF

2-81

1981
DE P ARTME NT

PRELIMINARY
PREPARED

3—8 1

U. S.

6-81

9.1

7-81

11.3

8-81
9-81
10-81

2 f351.7

8
.2
1 .2
1

2 .364.5
7.7
8.9
12.7

12.6
1 .2 1 .1 12.0
1
1
10.3
1 .1 10.6
0
H .*

11.4

11-81

9.8

9.5

9.9

12-81

8.7

8.4

8.6

2,379.1

1 .2
0

2,398.4

15.3

20.7

14.2

16.3

1 .1
2
10.9

2,436.3
2»459.6

13.1

14.1

11.3

11.5

8.6

6.9

9.7
4.2

10.3

10.4

7.9

6.6

5.0

5.8

8.7

8.4

6
.1

4.7

3.1

2.5

-0.7

2,478.6
2 » 4 8 7 *2
2,499.0
2,497.6

1-82

7.9

7.6

7.7

7.7

7.3

5.2

3.9

2.5

1.9

0.0

0.7

_£:S2

7.9

7.5

7.6

7.6

7.3

5.5

4.5

3.4

3*2

2.4

4.0

7.3

3-82

7.4

7.1

7.1

7. 1

6.7

5.1

4.1

3.3

3.1

2.4

3.4

4.8

7.5

7.2

7.2

7.2

6.9

5 . 5 __ 4 f 7

4.0

3.9

3.5

4.6

6.0

5.3

8.4

5-82

7.7

7.4

7.5

7.4

7.2

5.9

5.3

4.7

4.8

4.6

5.7

7.0

6.9

9.3

1 .2
0

6.4

7.8

7.5

2,499.1
2,513.8
2,518.6

2.3

2,535.5

2, 5 5 6 . 2

6-82

7.5

7.2

7.3

7.2

7.0

5.8

5.2

4.7

4.8

4.7

5.6

6.6

7-82

7.8

7.6

7.6

7.6

7.4

6.4

5.9

5.5

5.6

5.6

6.5

7.5

7.6

8.9

9.1

8-82

7.5

7.3

7.3

7.3

7. 1

6
.1

5.6

5.2

5.3

5.3

6.0

6.8

6.7

7.6

7.5

8.6
6.6

9-82

7.3

7.0

7.1

7.0

6.8

5.9

5.4

5.1

5.2

5.1

5.8

6.4

6.3

7.0

6.7

5.8

2-81

3-81

4-81

5-81

7-81

8-81

9-81

10-81

11-61

12-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

5-82

6-81

INITIAL
P-

2,566.3

4.8
12.5

2,591.6

7.4

2.6

6
*1

3.1

3.6

7-82

8-82

6-82

2,597.1
2 , 6 0 4 ♦ 7P

MONT H

PRELIMINARY




P R E P A R E D BY
OCTOBER 1 9 .

8

FEDERAL
1902

RESERVE

BANK O F S T .

LOUIS

RETAIL
RATIO

SALES
RAT I 0

SCALE

B I L L I ONS

OF

1974

DOLLARS

1975

SEASONALLY

1976

1977

B I L L I ONS

ADJUSTED

1978

1979

1980

SOUR CE :
PERCENTAGES
LATEST

ARE

ANNUAL

DATA P L O T T E D :

RATES

AUGUS T ,

OF

CHANGE

SEPTEMBER

FOR

PERIODS

ADVANCE

TERMINAL
MO N T H

3-81

1981

1982

DE P ARTME NT

OF

COMMERCE

I NDI CATED.

BY

FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LOUIS

SALES

M
1 ONTH

INITIAL

m illio n s

5-81

6-81

7-81

8-81

9-81

10-81

11-81

12-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

IN

4-81

A

3-81

5-02

6-8 2

7-62

8-82

13.9
7.7

86,128
1.9

86,263

C
O

1
w
v

5*6

1.6

1,4

6-81

7.6

5.6

7.4

13.8

7-81

6*0

4.1

4.9

6.6

-0.1

8-81

6*6

5,2

6.0

7*6

4*6

9*6

9-81

5*3

4.0

4.4

5.2

2.4

3 *7

-1.9

10-81

2.1

0.6

0.3

0*1

-3 .0

-4.0

-10.1

-17.7

11-81

2.4

1.1

0.9

0 *9

-1,5

-1.9

-5.5

-7.2

4.5

12-81

1.9

0.7

0.5

0.4

-1*7

-2.0

-4.7

-5.6

1.1

-2.2

.1.-8?

0.2

-1.1

-1.5

-1.8

-3.9

-4.5

-7.1

-8 .3

-5.0

-9 .4

-16.0

2-82

2,9

1,9

1,9

2,Q

0.6

0*7

-0*7

-0,5

4.4

4,3

7,7

3-82

2 ±2

1.3

1-3

1.3

-0*0

-0 * 0

-1.3

-1.2

2.4

1.9

3.3

14.6

-5.0

4-e2

3*1

2.3

2,4

2,4

1*4

1*5

0.6

0.9

4,4

4.4

6.1

14,7

4,5

14.9

?-92.

_?t3

4,7

4,9

5,2

4*4

4 *9

4*4

5,2

8,9

9,7

12,2

20,7

15,4

27*1

40,7

6-82

..

2*5

1.8

1,8

1.8

0.9

0.9

0.1

0.3

2.8

2,6

3.4

7.8

1,3

3*6

-1*7

-31*3

2*3

2.5

1*8

2.2

4*7

4*7

5.8

9,9

5,0

7*6

5.3

-8*9

20,9

-9*7

3.6

86,361
87,299
87,292
87,961
87,823
86,413
86,733
86,572
85,320
38,2

87,654
87,277
88,294
90,841
88,042

.
. .8 - 9 ?

3*5

2 ,9

2 ,9

3,1

2,6

2.0

2.0

2.0

1*2

1.3

0.7

0,9

3*0

2*8

3,2_

6,6

2,1

3.6

0.9

9-82

3.1

2.6

2.6

2.7

2*0

2.1

1.6

1.9

3.9

3.8

4.5

7.4

3.6

5*1

3.3

-4.4

6.7

0.2

13.2

2 — 81

3-81

4-81

5-81

6-81

7-81

8-81

9-81

10-81

11-81

12-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

5-82

6-82

7-82

8-82

.7 -9 2

INITIAL
PE-

OF

DOLLARS
2-81

....... 4 - e i

SCALE

DOLLARS

ESTI MATE

PREPARED

RETAIL

U. S.

OF

89,445
88.563P

-11*2

89,482 t

MONT H

PRELIMINARY
ESTIMATED




P R E P A R E D BY
OCTOBER 1 3 ,

FEDERAL
1982

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LO UIS

HOURLY COMPENSATI ON » BU S I N ES S SECTOR
C Q MP QU N OE O A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E
1977
T E R M I N A L __________ _____________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R ______________________________________________________________________
QUARTER
3-78 . 4-7 8
1-79
4-81
3-77
4-7 9
4-77
1-80
1-82 _
2-79
3-79
1-81
2-81
3-81
i-78
2-78
2-90
3-8 0
4-80

100

102.9

7.7

4-77

-

1-78

8.9

10.1

2-78

8.4

8.7

3-78

8.5

8.8

8.1

8.9

109.6
112.2

4.0.514
107.3

7.4

4-7 8

*.8

9.0

8.7

9.3

9.8

1-79

9.2

9.5

9.4

10.1

10.7

11.5

2-79

9. 1

9.4

9.2

9.7

10.0

10.0

8.6

3-79

9.2

9.4

9.3

9.7

9.9

10.0

9.2

4-79

9.2

9.3

9.2

9.5

9.7

9.6

9.0

9.2

8.6

1-8 0

9.5

9.7

9.6

10.0

10.1

10.2

9.9

10.3

10.6

12.6

2 -8 0

9.6

9.8

9 .8

10. 1

10.2

10.3

10.1

10.5

10.6

11.7

115.3
117.7
9.9

120.5
123.0
126.7
10.8

130.0

3 -8 0

9.6

9*8

9*8

10*1

10*2__

10*3

10*0

10.3

10*5

11.1

10.4

9.9

4-80

9.6

9 *8

9.7

10.0

10.1

10. X

9*9

10*2

10.2

10.7

10.0

9.6

9.3

1-81

9.8

9.9

9.9

10.2

10*3

10*3

1 0 12

10.4

10.5

10*9

10.5

10.4

10 *6

12*0

2-81

9,6

9.7

9.7

9.9

10*0

10*0

9*9

10*0

10*1

10*3

9*9

9.6

9*5

9*6

7*3

3-81

9 .6

9.7

9.7

9.8

9*9

9.9

9.8

9.9

9.9

10.1

9*7

9.5

9.4

9*4

8.2

9.0

4-61

9,4

9,5

9.5

9.7

9.7

9.7

9.6

9.7

9.6

9.8

9,4

9*1

9.0

8*9

7.9

8.2

7.3

1-82

9.3

9.4

9.4

9. 5

9.6

9.5

9.4

9.5

9.4

9.5

9. 1

8.9

8.7

8.6

7.8

7.9

7.4

7.5

9,2

9,3

9,2

9,3

9,4

9*3

9*2

9*2

9,2

9,2

8*9

8*6

8,4

8,3

7,6

7,6

7*2

7 *1

6 *8

3-77

4-77

1-78

2-78

3-78

4-7 8

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

1-80

2-80

4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

1-81.

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

..Z r U

-0.8

3-78

4-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

145.6
148.2
150.9
153*4

BUS IN ES S SECTOR
C H A N G E ______________

4-79

1-80

1977
2-80

3-80

4-80

-1.6

1-78

2-78

o

4-77

1-78

142.5

QUARTER

INITIAL
4-77

3-77

136*1
140.0

QUARTER

O U T P U T PER HOUR OF A L L P E R S O N S ,
________ C OMP OU N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF
TERMINAL
QUARTER

Î*
<>

INITIAL

133.1

100

100.5
0.0

100.5

2-78

-0.3

0.4

0.8

3-78

-0.3

0. 1

0.2

-0.4

4-78

-0.1

0.3

0.4

0.2

0.8

1-79

-0.3

-0.1

-0.1

-0.4

-0.4

-1.6

2-79

—0 . 6

-0.5

—0 . 6

-0.9

- l . l

-2.0

100.7
100.6
100.8
100.4
-2.4

99.8

3-79

-0.8

—0 . 7

-0.8

-1.1

-1.3

-2.0

-2.2

-2*0

4-79

-0.8

-0.7

-0.8

-1.1

-1.2

-1.7

-1.7

-1.4

-0.8

1-80

-0.6

-0.8

-0.9

-1.2

-1.1

-0.7

0.0

0.8

-1.7

-1.8

-1.6

-1.5

-1.8

-4.4

-1*1

-1.0

-0.7

-0.4

-0.3

-0.8

2.9

-0.6

-0.3

0.2

0.0

2.3

1.6
5.8

99.3
99.1

-0.6

-0.5

2-80

-l.o

-0.9

-1.0

-1.2

-1.4

3-80

-0*7

-0*6

—0 * 6

-0.8

-0.8

4-80

-0.5

-0*4

—0 . 4

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7

1-81

-o* i

o.l

0.1

0.0

0.0

-0.0

O.l

0.5

0.9

1.3

1.4

3.4

3.7

2-81

."O il

0 *1

O ti

0*0

0 *0

-0*0

0.1

0.4

0.8

1.1

1. 1

2.5

2.4

2.8

_ o,i
.- 9 , 1

0.1

0.1

0 *2

0.5

0.9

1* 1

1.1

2*3

2.1

2.3

0*6

-0 t L _ ” 9,1

-0*1

-0.2

3-81

*

0, . Q .

.Qt

L_

o. o

99*3
98*2
9 8*9
99*3
100.7
0.0

100.7
1.2

101.0

4-81

.-O* 2

-0.1

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.5

1*4

l.l

0.9

-0*7

-1*0

-3. 1

1-82

-0. 2

-0.1

- O il

-0.2

-0.2

-0,2

-0. 1

0.1

0.3

0.4

0. 4

1.0

0.7

0.6

-0.7

-0.9

-2.0

-0.8

2-82

-<?tl

.-SL*.Q

-0.0

-0,1

-0*1

-0.1

-0*0

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.4

1. 1

0.8

0.7

-0*3

-0*4

-0*9

0.2

1.2

3-77

4-77

1-78

2-78

3-78

4-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

3-80

4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82




INITIAL

1-80

2-80

100.2
100.0
100.3

QUARTER

10

PREPARED BY FEDERAL
A U G U S T 2 6 . 198 2

RESERVE

BAMK

OF

ST.

LO U IS

PRODUCTIVITY,
RAT I 0

COMPENSATION,

AND LABOR COSTS

SCALE

RATIO

1977-100

1974

1975

1976

1977

19 7 8

1977-100

1979

1980
SOURCEi

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL
LATEST

DATA PLOTTED.

RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIOOS

3-77

4-77

_

_______
1-78

2-78

COSTS»
ANNUAL

INITIAL
4-78

3-78

4-77

9.1

1-78

10.0
8.6

8.4

8.8

8.7

7.6

4-78

8.9

8.9

8.2

9.4

9.6

9.7

9.3

10.5

11.1

9.8

9.9

9.7

10.7

11.2

12.0

3-79

FEDERAL

RESER VE BANK OF

SECTOR
C HA NG E

ST.

LOUIS

___

QU A R T E R ___________

4-79

1-00

2-80

1977
3-80

4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-61

«

100

1-82

12.8

2-79

2-79

er

BUSINESS
R A T E S OF

9.5

1-79

LA0OR

5.8

3-78

1982
OF

11.0

2-78

1-79

198 1
DEPARTMENT

I NDICATED.

PREPARED

______

U.S.

2ND OUARTER

U N I T L A B OR
_____________________ C OMP OUN D E D
TERMINAL
QUARTER

SCALE

SEASONALLY ADJ USTED

102.3
105.0
106.5
108.9

9.3

111.4
114.8
117.9

11.2

121.3

3-79

V 10.1

10.2

10.1

11.0

11.4

12.0

11.6

12.0

4-T9

10.0

10.1

10.0

10.7

11.0

11.4

10.9

10.8

9.6

1-80

10.2

10.3

10.2

10.9

11.1

11.5

11.1

11.1

10.7

11.8

2-80

10.7

10.8

10.8

11.5

11.8

12.1

12 . 0

12.2

12.3

13.7

15.6

3-80

1 0, 4

10.5

10,5

11.0

11.2 _ 11.5

n . 2

11.2

11.0

11.5

11.4

7.5

4-80

10.1

10.2

10.2

10.6

10.7

10.9

10.6

10.5

10.2

10.4

9.9

7.2

7.0

1-81

9.8

9.9

9.8

10.2

10.3

10.3

10.0

9.9

9.5

9.5

8.9

6.8

6.5

6,0

124.1
127.6
132.3
134.7
137.0
139.0

2-01

9.7

9.7

9.6

9.9

10.0

10.0

9.7

9.6

9.2

9.1

8.6

7.0

6.8

6.7

7.4

3-81

9.6

9.6

9.5

9. 8

9.8

9.8

9.5

9.4

9.0

9.0

8.5

7.1

7.1

7,1

7.6

7.9

4-81

9.6

9.7

9.6

9.8

9.9

9.9

9,7

9.5

9.2

9.2

8.8

7.7

7.8

8.0

8.6

9.3

1-82

9.5

9.6

9.5

9.7

9.8

9.8

9.5

9.4

9. 1

9.1

8.7

7.0

7.9

0.0

8.6

9,0

9,5

8.4

2-82

9.3

9.4

9.3

9.5

9.5

9

9.2

9.1

8.8

8.7

8.4

7.5

7.6

7.6

8.0

0.1

8.2

7,0

5,7

3-77

4-77

1-78

2-76

3-78

4-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

1-80

2-80

3-80

4-80

1-01

2-01

3-81

4-81

1-82




.

INITIAL

141.5
144.2
10,7

147.9
150.9
153.0

QUARTER

PREPARED BY F ED ER A L
AUGUST 2 6 . 1982

11

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LO U IS

G ROS S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
_____ C Q MP Q J N O E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E
INITIAL

TERMINAL
QUARTER
4-77
1-78

1^7 B

2-78

3-7fl_. 4 - 7 6

1-79

2-79

3 - 7 9 ._4. -79

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL R A T E S

QUARTER

IrtfiL

2-80

3-80

4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

8.9

2.031.7

2-78.

15.7

23.0

2.139.5

3-78

14.6

17.5

12.3

2.202.5

4-78

14.7

16.7

1 1 J

15*2

1-79

13.7

15.0

12.4

12.4

2-79

12.6

13.4

11.1

10.8

8.6

7.5

3-79

12.8

13.4

11.6

11.5

10.2

10.5

2.281.6
9.6

2.335.5
2.377.9
13.6

2.454.8

4-79

12.2

12.7

11.0

10.8

9.7

9.7

1-80

12.2

12.6

11.2

11.0

10.2

10.3

11.3

10.1

8.1
12.2

2-80

10.9

11.1

9.7

9.3

8.4

8.1

8.2

6.5

5.7

-0.4

2.502.9
2.575.9
2.573.4

3-80

10.9

11.1

9.9

9.6

8.8

8.6

8.8

7.7

7.6

5.3

11.4

4-80

11.3

11.5

10.4

10.2

9.6

9.5

9.9

9.2

9.4

8.6

13.3

15.3

2.643.7

1-81

11.9

12.1

11.2

11.1

10.6

10.8

11.2

10.8

11.4

11.2

15.4

17.4

19.6

2-81

11.4

11.6

10.7

10.5

10.1

10.1

10.5

10.0

10.4

10.0

12.8

13.2

12.2

12.5

12.8

11.9

8.3

11.4

9.6

6.5

7.1

3.0

7.4

4.6

4.3

1.0

-1.0

2.739.4
2.864.9

11.4

1 1*6

10.7

10.6

10.2

10.3

10.6

10.2

10.5

10.2

10.9

11.0

10.2

10.0

9.6

9.6

9.8

9.4

9.5

9.2

10.7

1-82

10.1

10.2

9.4

9.2

8.7

8.7

8.8

8.3

8.3

7.8

9. 1

8.7

2-82

9.9

10.0

9.2

9.0

8.6

8.5

8.6

8.2

8.2

7.7

8.8

8.4

7.3

5.0

4.9

2.9

2.8

6.8

3-82

9.7

9.6

9.0

6.6

6.4

6.3

6.4

6.0

8.0

7.6

8.5

6.1

7.2

5.2

5.2

3.7

3.9

6.5

6.2

4-77

1-76

2-78

3-78

4-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

1-80

3-80

4-80

1-81

2-61

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

INITIAL
P-

0
0
0
1

3-81
4-81

C
D

2.901.8

o

5.3

2.980.9
3.003.2
2.995.5
3.045.2
3.091.4P

QUARTER

PRELIMINARY

GROS S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T I N
___ C OMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S
TERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL
4-77

1-78

2-78

3-78

4-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

3.4

2 — 76

7.1

11.0

3-78

5.8

7.1

4-78

5.8

6.6

4.4

4.8

5.2

3.3

3.3

3.8

3.9

2.2

1.9

0.1

4.0

4.1

2.8

2.6

1.7

1.9

3.4

2.4

2.2

1.4

1.5

2.a

1—*0

3.3

3.3

2.3

2.1

1.4

1.5

2.3

1.1

2.0

1.8

0.7

0.4

-0.5

-0 .8

-0 .8

-2.6

-4.2

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-8 1

1-82

2-62

1.5

2-ftO

4-80

4.8

3.6

3-80

-0.9

3-79

2-80

1.1

2-79

1 — 80

5.5

1-79

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL R A T E S

QUARTER

3.3

<

-J

1-78

1972 OOLLARS
OF C H A N G E

1.400.0
1.437.0
1.448.8
1.468.4
1.472.6
1.469.2
1.486.6
0.7

1.48*.3
1.494.9
1.4 57.6

-9.6

3 —80

1.9

1.8

0.8

0. 5

—0 . 2

-0.4

-0.3

-1.5

-2.3

-4.1

1.7

4 — AO

2.1

2.0

1.2

0.9

0.4

0.3

0.5

—0 * 4

-0.7

-1.4

3.0

4-3

1-81

2.6

2.5

1.8

1.6

1.2

1.2

1.5

0.9

1.0

0.9

4.6

6.1

2 — ft 1

2.3

2.2

1.5

1.3

0.9

0.9

1.1

0.6

0.6

0.4

3.0

3.5

3. 1

3 — ft 1

2.3

2.2

1.5

1.4

1.0

1.0

1.2

0.8

0.8

0.7

2.9

3.2

2.8

0.3

2.2

4-81

1.8

1.7

1.0

0.9

0.5

0.4

0.6

0.1

0.0

-0.2

1.5

1.4

0.7

-1.6

-1.6

-5 .3

1-82

1.4

_1.2_

0.6

0.4

0.0

-0.0

0.0

-0.4

-0.6

-0.8

0.5

0.3

-0.5

-2.5

-2.8

-5.2

2-82

1.4

1.3

0.7

_ 0.5

0.2

0.1

0.2

-0.2

-0.3

-0.5

0.7

0.6

-0.0

-1.6

-1.6

-2.8

-1.6

2.1

3-62

1.4

1.3

0.7

0.6

0.2

0.2

0.3

-0.1

-0.2

-0.4

0.7

0.6

0.1

-1.2

-1.1

-1.9

-0.8

1.4

0.8

4-77

1-78

2-78

3-78

4-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

1-80

2-80

3-80

4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

.

INITIAL
P-

1.463.8
1.479.4
1.507.8

7.9

1.502.2

-1.5

1.510.4
1.4 90.1
1.470.7

-5.1

1.478.4

1. 4 8 1. 2

QUARTER

PRELIMINARY




P R E P A R E O BY
OCTOBER 2 0 .

12

FEOERAL
1982

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LO U IS

P

GR O S S
RATIO

SCALE

1974

NATIONAL

PRODUCT

Q U A R T E R L Y TOTALS AT ANNUAL

1975

1976

1977

1978

1979
S OURCE:

PERCENTAGES
L AT E S T

ARE ANNUAL

DATA P L OT T ED :




R A T E S OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S

3RD OUARTER

RATIO

RATES

1980
U.S.

1981
DE P A RT MENT

SCALE

1982
OF

COMMERCE

INDICATED.

PRELIMINARY

PR EPAR ED

13

BY F E D E R A L

RESERVE

BANK

OF S T.

LOUIS

GENERAL
RATIO

PRICE

INDEX*

SCALE

RATIO

1972-100

1974
*AS

U SE D

1975
I N N AT IO NAL

P ERC EN TAG ES
LATEST

SCALE

1972-100

ARE

1976
INCOME

ANNUAL

DATA P L O T T E D :

1977

1978

1979

ACCOUNTS

RATES

1980

S OU R C E :

OF CHANGE FOR

PERIODS

U.S.

1981
D EP AR TME NT

1982
OF

COMMERCE

IND IC AT ED.

3RD OUARTER P R E L I M I N A R Y
PR EPAR ED

BY

FE DERAL

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST .

LO UIS

I M P L I C I T P R I C E D E F L A T O R FOR G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O O U C T
____________ C O H P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S O f C H A N G E ______________
TERMINAL
OUARTER

INITIAL
4-77

1-78

_ 1-78

2-78

3-78

4-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

OUARTER

1-80

2-80

3-80

4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

5.4

145.12

O
Q
r*
i
fv

8-0

10.8

3-78

8.3

9.7

148.89
8.7

152.02

4— 78

8. 5

9.5

8.9

9.1

1-79

8.5

9.3

8.8

8.8

8.6

155.38
158.60

2-79

8.5

9.1

8.7

8.7

a .5

a.5

3-79

8.5

9.0

8.6

8.6

a.4

8.4

8.3

4-79

fi.3

8.7

8.4

fi.4

a. 2

8.0

7 .a

161.85
165.12
7.3

168.05

1-flO

8.6

9.0

B .7

8.7

8.6

a.6

8.7

a .9

10.5

2-ftO

£•7

9.1

a.9

8.9

8.9

8.9

9.1

9.3

10.3

10.1

3-flO

_a.û

9.1

9.0

9.0

9.0

9-0

9.2

9.4

IO. 1

9.9

9.6

4-fiO

J .9

9.3

9.1

9.2

9.2

9.3

9.4

9.6

10.2

10.1

10.0

10.5

1-81

9.1

9.4

9.3

9.3

9.4

9.5

9.6

9.8

10.3

10.3

10.3

10.7

10.9

2-81

8.9

9.2

9.1

9.1

9.1

9.2

9.2

9.4

9.7

9.6

9.4

9.4

a.a

6 .a

9.2

9.1

9.1

9.1

9.1

9.2

9.3

9.6

9.5

9.3

9.3

a.9

7.9

9.0

3-fil

172.31
176.52
180.60
185.16
190.01
193.17
197.36

4-fil

a.9

9.2

9.0

9.1

9.1

9.1

9.2

9.3

9.5

9.4

9.2

9.2

8.9

8.2

8.9

8.8

1-82

8.6

&.a

a .7

8.7

a .7

8.7

8.7

8.8

8.9

8.7

8.5

8.3

7.9

7.2

7.3

6.5

4.3

2-82

8.4

fi.6

8.5

8.4

a.4

8.4

8.4

8.4

8.5

8.3

8.0

7.8

7.4

6.7

6.6

5.9

4.4

4.6

3-82

8.2

8.3

8.2

8.2

8.2

8.1

8.1

8.2

8.0

7.7

7.5

7.1

6.5

6.4

5.8

4.8

5.0

5.4

2-78

3-78

4-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

1-80

2-80

3-80

4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-62

2-62

4-77

1— 7 8

INITIAL
p -

201.55
203.68
205.98
2 0 8 . 7 1R

QUARTER

pr elim in ary




P R E P A R E D BY
O C T O BER 2 0 .

14

FEDERAL
1982

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST*

LO U iS

PERSONAL

CONSUM PTION EX PEN D ITU R ES

TERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL
4 . - I 7 L —L—
7Û

2 --1 B

1-78

13-0
12.5

14-8

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

OOLLARS
B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

QUARTER

1-80

2-80

3-80

4-80

1-61

2-81

3-8 1

4 -8 1

1 —8 2

2-82

la .i

3-7a

4-78

CURRENT

8 .1

2-76

3-78

IN

11.5

1.276.4
1.330.7
1.367.5

12.7 _14.3

.12*5

13.4

1-79

.1 2 *2

13.3

.11.7

11.9

10.3

. 2-7?

limò

12.3

- lû t?

10.7

9.4

8.5

3-79

1 2 .1

1 2 .8

11.7

1 1 .8

1 1 .2

11.7

4-79

12.3

12.9

1 2 .0

1 2 .1

1 1 .8

12.3

14.3

13.7

1 2 .6

1 1 .8

11.9

1 1 .6

11.9

13.1

1 2 .2

1 1 .2

10.4

10.3

9.6

9.9

1.411.3
1.446.3
1.476.0
14.9

1.528.3

o

1.578.0

1 2 .1

o
«P
T
<
N

1

C
D

.... 4-7a

10.9

3— 8 0

11.3

11.7

1 1 .0

10.9

10.5

1 0 .6

1 1 .0

10.1

8.9

8.0

15.6

4-80

11.7

12.1

11.5

11.5

1 1 .2

11.4

11.8

11.2

10.6

10.6

15.8

16.1

1-81

11.8

1 2 .1

1 1 .6

1 1 .6

11.4

1 1 .6

1 2 .0

11.5

11.1

11.2

14.9

14.5

<
o

9.7

1.618.7

10.7
5.7

1.622.2

0.9

1.682.0
1.745.8
1.799.9

13.0

1.819-4

2 —ft 1

11-3

11-5

11-0

10-9

10.7

10-7

11.0

10.5

10.0

9.8

12-2

11-0

8-6

4 -4

3-81

11-3

11.5

11.0

11.0

10.7

1 0 .8

1 1 .1

10.6

10.1

10.1

12.0

11.1

9.5

7.8

11.3

4-81

10.8

10.9

10.5

10.4

10.1

10.1

10.3

9.8

9.3

9.1

10.5

9.5

7.9

6.3

7.3

1.868.8

3.4

1.884.5
1.919.4

1-82

10.6

10.7

10.3

10.2

9.9

9.9

10.0

9.5

9. 1

8.9

10.1

9-2

7.9

6.6

7 -4

5-5

7-6

2-82

10.3

10.5

10.0

9-9

9.6

9.6

9.7

9.2

8.8

8.6

9.6

8.7

7.6

6.5

7.1

5.7

6.8

6.1

3-82

10.2

10.4

9.9

9.8

9.6

9.5

9.6

9.2

8.8

8.6

9.5

8.8

7.8

6.9

7.4

6.5

7.5

7.4

8.8

4-77

1-78

2-78

3-78

4-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

1-80

2-80

3-80

4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

INITIAL
P -

1.947.8
1.989.5 P

QUARTER

PRE LIMINA RY

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION E X PEN DI T URES I N 1972 OOLLA RS
______________ COMPOUN D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C HA NG E ______________
BILLIONS
ANNUAL

QUARTER
1-78

0
0
r1
<i
\

4-77
1-78

3-78

4-78

1-79

2-79

1.6

3-79

4-79

1-80

2-80

3-80

4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

OF

RATES

2-82

883.8

7-78

4-8

8-1

3-78

4.3

5-7

3-4

4-78

4.4

5-4

4-1

4.7

1-79

3.7

4-2

3-0

2.8

0-9

2-79

2-9

3-2

2-0

1-6

0.1

901.1
908.6
919.2
921.2
-0.7

919.5

3-79

3.2

3.5

2.6

2.5

1.7

2.1

5.1

4-79

3.3

3-5

2.8

2-6

2-1

2-5

4-2

3.3

930.9

1-80

2-8

3-0

2-3

2-1

1.5

1-7

2-5

1.3

-0.7

2-80

1-6

1-6

0.8

0-5

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

-2.2

-4.8

-6.7

938.6
937.0
915.8

3-80

1-9

2-0

1-3

1- 1

0.5

0-5

0.7

-0.3

-1.5

-1.9

5.4

4 — 80

2-2

2-3

1-7

1-6

1-2

1.2

1.6

0.9

0.3

0.6

5.6

5.7

928.0

1— R 1

2-4

2-5

2-0

1-8

1-5

1-6

1-9

1.4

1.1

1.5

5.2

5.0

4.4

941.0
951.1

7-81

2-0

2.1

1-6

1-4

1-1

1-1

1.4

0.8

0.4

0.6

3- 1

2.4

0.8

-2.7

3 — ft 1

?- 1

2-1

1-7

1-5

1.3

1-3

1.5

1.1

0.8

1.0

3.1

2.5

1.5

0.1

2.9

4-81

1.7

1.8

1.3

1.2

0.9

0.9

1.0

0.6

0.3

0.4

2.0

1.3

0.3

-1.1

-0.3

944.6
951 . 4

-2..3..

943.4

1-82

1.8

1.8

1.4

1.3

1.0

1.0

1.2

0.8

0-5

0.6

2.1

1.5

0.7

-0.2

0.6

2-82

1.8

1-8

1.5

1-3

1.1

1.1

1.3

0.9

0.7

0.8

2.1

1.7

1.0

0.3

1.1

0. 5

2.5

2.5

3-82

1.8

1.8

1.5

1.3

1.1

1.1

1.3

1.0

0.8

0.9

2.0

1.6

1.1

0.5

.1.2..

0.7

2.1_

2.0

1.4

4-77

1-78

2-78

3-78

4-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

1-80

2-80

3-80

4-60

1-81

1-82

2-82

INITIAL
P-

2-81

-0 .5

3-81

2.4

4-81

949.1
955.0
958.4P

QUARTER

PRELIMINARY




PREPARED BY
OCTOBER 2 0 .

15

FEDERAL
1982

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LO U IS

GR O S S

P R I V A T E D O M E S T I C I N V E ST ME NT IN CURRENT DOL L ARS
C OMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S PF C H A N G E _________________
INITIAL

_ X£Ä Ml ÜA k_
QUARTER
4 —77

1— 78___ 2 = 2 8 ___ 3 - 7 Q ___ 4 . - 7 S ___ 1 - 7 9 ___ 1 = 1 3 .___ 3 - 7 9

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL R A T E S

QUARTER

4 - 7 9 ___ L - A f l ___ 2 = ñ O ___ _________ h r ß Q ___ 1 - 8 1

2-fll

3-fti

4-8 1

1-fl 2

?-ft?

_____ 1 6 , 8
2 - 7 8 _____3 Ü * £ ___ 4 4 . I L

_3ß8.^

- 3, - 7 6 ____ 21*, 6___ 2 4 . 1 _____6 . 4

-334.6

- A r r l fì

20.1

2 1 , 2 ___ 1 0 . 9 ___ 1 5 * 5

1-79

17.1

17.2

9.2

10.7

6.0

2-79

16.5

16.4

10.2

11.5

9.6

409.1
415.1
13.3

428.3

3-79

14.L.

a^a

9^5

7.5

8.3

3.4

10. 6

9.7_

4.8

4.5

1.9

0.5

_r5.3

-13*3

1— 8 0

. 10.2

9.4

5.1

4.9

2.9

2.1

-1.3

-3.6

7.1

7-ao

.

14.5

4-79

5.7

4.5

0.3

-0 .5

-3.0

-4.7

-8.7

-12.4

-12.0

-27.7

431.9
416.8
424.0

3-80

.

4.5

3.3

-0.5

-1 .3

-3.5

-5.0

-8.3

-11.1

-10.3

-17.9

-. 4— 8 0

.

6.4

5.5

2.2

1.7

0.1

-0.7

-2.8

-4 .0

-1.6

-4.3

9.4

8.8

6.0

5.9

4.9

4.8

3.6

3.6

7.4

391.0

.

1-81

-6.9

384.1

10. 1

30.2

7.5

22.7

40.8

410.3
52.2

455.7

10.0

9.5

7.0

7.0

6.2

6.2

5.4

5.6

9.2

9.6

21.6

32.9

34.3

18.5

3 — 01

9.9

9.5

7.1

7.2

6.5

6.5

5.8

6.1

9.2

9.5

19.0

26.5

25.3

13.7

9.1

.4- 81

8.3

7.8

5.5

5.5

4.7

4.5

3.7

3.7

6.1

5.9

12.9

17.3

14.3

3.9

-2 .8

-1 3 .3

1-82

4.7

4.0

1.8

1.4

0.4

-0.0

-1.2

-1 .6

-0.2

-1.1

3.4

5.3

0.9

-9.0

-16.6

-27.2

-38.8

2-82

5.4

4.8

2.7

2.4

1.5

1.2

0.2

-0 .0

1.4

0.8

5. 1

6.9

3.4

-4.3

-9.3

-1 4 .7

-15.3

3-82

5.5

4.9

2.9

2.7

1.9

1.6

0.7

0.5

1.9

1.4

5.2

6.8

3.9

-2.5

-6.3

-9.8

-8 .5

11.8

6.6

4-77

1-78

2-78

3-78

4-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

1-80

2-80

3-80

4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

1-82

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL R A T ES
2-82

___ 2 - 8 1

.

INITIAL
P-

475.5
486.0
468.9
414.8
17. 1

431 . 5
438 » 5 P

QUARTER

PRELIMINARY

GR O S S P R I V A T E D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T I N 1 9 7 2 D O L L A R S
_____________C OMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S OF CH A NG E _____________
TERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL
4 - 77

l - 7fl

? - 78

3 - 78

4 - 78

1-78

?o
1? . 1

i n .2

4-78

10, . 8

9 .?

1.9

ft . 3

h .5

0 .9

3.0

f\t 8
.

5. 1

n .6

1.9

- o .7

1-80

? - 80

3 - 80

4-80

1 - 81

2-81

4 - 81

3-81

-1 .?

2-79

4 - 79

7, ?

1-79

3-79

25 , 4

3-78

? - 79

15 . 9

2-78

1 - 79

(Q U A R T E R

226.7
239.9
238.0

- 3 .1

242.2
241.5
2 41 . 3

-fì .3

3-79

4, . A

3 .1

- 0 .9

-0 .3

- ? .7

-3 ,.5

—6 . 6

4-79

1,. 5

-0.4

— 4,. 1

-4,.3

- 7 .0

-8 ,,8

-1 ? .8

1-80

0,

Hi,»9

-4,.?

-4,

-6 .5

-7,»8 -1 0 •1 -1 1 . 9

2-ftO

- 3 , »1

-5 ,.0

-ft,. 3

-9 ,.0

237.2
225.3

- 1ft ,. 6

222.7

-4.5

-11,.4

-13.3

-16 .3

- 1 9 , »3 - 1 9 . 7
— 16 i. 0 - 1 5 . 1

201.9

-32.4

3-ftO

-3,

-5 ,.0

-7.9

-8 ,» 5 -10,.6

-1?..0

-14 .?

-20.0

-5 „ 2

4-ftO

- 1 ,, 4

.8

-5 ,.3

- 5 , ,*i

- 7 , .O

— 7. . 8

—9 . n

-<5. , 4

- 7 .0

-7-fi

7, .ft

?? . 6

1-fil

0.. 4

- 0 . »8

- ? , .ft

- 2 , *A

- 3 . »9

»?

-4..8

- 4 . >4

-1,.3

—0 . 5

13 . 2

23 . 8

199.2
209.6
221.6

?4<» 9

2 — 81

1 ,, 4

0.t4

-1 .,1

- 1 ,» 3

-?,. 1

- ? , .?

-?,

- 1 ,, 9

1,, ?

7.4

13 . 7

?Q . 8

19«, 9

15 . 0

3— 8 1

1.. 8

0 . tfl

- 0 , kfl

-0,

- 1 , ,3

- 1 , ,4

-1 ,

-fli»A

?, . 0

3.2

1?

17 . ?

15.i4

1ft . 9

7.0

4-81

0..0

- 0 . .9

.6

- 3 , .3

- 3 . >5

-3,.8

- 3 , ,5

-1,.4

-1. 0

7 .8

4.4

-1 .6

-9.0

—?2i .6

-11 .8

-19.3

- 2 9 , ,9

-36 .5

- 1 7 44
.

-14 .6

1 4« , 9

- 1 3 . ,4 - 1 0 .1

7.. 0

-0 .4

1-82

2-82

1— 8 2

- 2 . .6

- 3 . »6

.6

r i « >3

»5
- 5 « »5

—6 . . 4

- 6 , .8

-7,.4

- 7 , ,5

.6

—6 , • 1

5,, 5

-6.3

-1.,9

-1 .3

- 5 , ,5

229.5

2-82
,

- 1 . .7

- 4 . »?

- 4 , »?

- 5 . .0

- 5 . ,3

-5,,7

-5,

— 4,t ?

-4.7

ft., 1

0 .9

- ? , ,3

- 7 .0

—11.9

3-82

_ - l i .6

- 2 . >5

- 4 . .0

- 4 . .0

- 4 , »7

- S . .0

-5 ,.3

- 5 . .2

-3 ,.9

-3.8

0,. 0

0 .7

- 2 , ,1

-6,.0

-9.7

4-77

1-78

2-78

3-78

4-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

1-80

2-80

3-80

4-80

1-81

2-81

-?,

INITIAL
P-

233.4
218.9

3-81

4-81

195.4
202*3
202.IP .

QUARTER

PRELIMINARY




16

P R E P A R E D BY
OCTOBER 2 0 .

FEDERAL
1982

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

G O V E R N M EN T

PURCHASES

TERMINAL
QUARTER

OF GOODS AND S E R V I C E S

INITIAL
4-77

1-78

2-78

3-78

4-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

IN

CURRENT

DOLLARS
B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL R A T ES

QUARTER

1—8 0

2-80

3-80

4-80

2-81

1-81

3-81

4-8 1

1-62

2-82
412.8

1-78

4 . fi

2-78

8.2

11.7

3-78

10*4

13.3

4-78

10.6

12.6

13.0

11.2

1-79

9.5

10.7

10.3

8.2

5.2

2-79

9.0

9.9

9.4

7.7

6.0

6.8

3-79

9 *5

10.1

8.9

8.2

9.7

424.4
439.3

14.8

451.1
456.9
464.5
478.5

12.6

497.6

4-79

10.4

11.3

11.2

10.5

10.3

12.1

14.8

16.9

1-80

11.3

12.1

12.2

11.8

11.9

13.6

16.0

17.7

L8.5

12.3

12.4

12.0

12.2

13.6

15.4

16.3

16.0

2-80

11.5

519.2
536.0

13.6

3-80

10.6

11.2

11.2

10.7

10.6

11.6

12.6

12.5

11.1

7.6

11.1

1^.7

11.7

11.4

11.4

12.3

13.2

13.4

12.5

10-6

9. 1

1-81

11.3

11.9

11.9

11.6

11.7

12.5

13.3

13.4

12.7

11.3

7-A1

10.7

11.2

11.2

10.9

10.8

11.5

12.1

12.0

11.2

1 — 81

10.8

11 .3

11 . 3

11.0

10.9

11.5

12.1

12.0

1 1.3

4 — ft 1

11.3

11 .8

11 . 8

11.5

11.6

12.2

12.7

12.7

12.2

5 38 *5

1.9

4-flO

559.8

16.8

578.1

10.6

15.2

13.7

9.7

8.8

11.2

8.5

3.6

10.1

9.5

11.5

9.7

7.8

12.2

11.3

10.9

12.8

11.9

11.3

15.3

18.6

583.2
600.2
626.3
630.1

l-ft?

10. fi

11.2

1 1 .1

10.9

10.8

1 1.3

11.7

11.6

1 1.1

10.2

9.7

11 . 0

9.9

9.0

10.9

10.2

2.4

?-ft?

10*7

10*5

10.4

10.1

10.1

10.4

10*7

10.6

10.0

9.0

8.5

9.5

8.3

7.2

8.2

6.9

1.5

0.5

3-82

10.3

10.6

10.6

10.3

10.2

10.6

10.9

10.8

10.2

9.4

9.0

9.9

8.9

8.2

9.1

8.3

5. 1

6.5

12.8

4-77

1-78

2-78

3-78

4-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

1-80

2-80

3-80

4-80

1-61

2-61

3-81

1-62

2-82

INITIAL
P-

4-81

630.9
6 5 0 . 2P

QUARTER

PRE LI MI NA RY

G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F GOOOS A ND S E R V I C E S I N 1 9 7 2 D O L L A R S
________________ COMP O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C HA N fcf_______________________________________________________________________________
6 1 L L I O f t S OF

TERMINAL_____________________________________________________________ IN IT IA L QUARTER____________________________________________________________ DOLLARS
ANNUAL

QUARTER
4-77
1-78

1— 7ft

2— 7ft

3-78

4-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

1-80

2-80

3-80

4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-62

270.4

-1.5

f
t

273.6

2-78

1.6

4 .

3 — 78

2.7

4.8

4.8

4-78

2.3

3.6

3.0

1.3

1-79

1.5

2.2

1.4

-0.3

-1.9

276.8
277.7
276.4
276.8

2-79

1.3

1.9

1.2

0.0

—0 . 6

0.6

3-79

1.5

2.1

1.5

0.7

0.5

1.7

2.9

4-79

1.8

2.3

1.8

1.3

1.3

2.3

3.2

3.5

278.8
281.2
284.7

1-80

2.1

2.6

2.3

1.9

2.0

3.0

3.8

4.3

5.1

2-80

2.2

2.7

2.4

2.1

2.2

3.0

3.6

3.9

4.1

3-80

1.6

1.9

1.6

1.2

1.2

1.7

1.9

1.6

1.0

-0.9

-4.8

1.0

1.4

1.5

1.3

0.7

-0.7

-2.6

4-80

1.4

1.7

1.4

1.0

286.9

3.1
283.4
-0.3

283.2

1-81

1.7

2.0

1.7

1.4

1.4

1.9

2.0

1.9

1.6

0.7

-0.0

2.4

5.2

7 — ft 1

1.3

l.S

1.2

0.9

0.9

1.2

1.3

1.0

0.6

-0.2

-1.0

0.2

0.5

-4*0

3-81

1.4

1.7

1.4

1.1

1.1

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.1

0.4

-0. 1

1.1

1.5

-0.3

4-81

1.8

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.9

2.1

2.0

1.8

1.3

1.0

2.2

2.9

- 2. «

5.3

7 . CL

1-82

1.5

1.7

1.5

1.3

1.3

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.3

0.8

0.5

1.4

1.7

0.6

2.5

2.0

2-82

1.1

1.3

1.1

0.8

0.8

1.0

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.1

-0.3

0.4

0.5

-0.4

0.5

-0.5

3-82

_1 *4

.1 * 6

1*4

1.2

1*2

1.4l _

1.4

1.3

1.1

0.7.

0.5

1*2

1. 4 .. 0.7

4— 7 7

1-78

2-79

3-79

4-79

2-80

3-80

2-78

5-78

4-78

1-79

1-80

INITIAL
P-

RATES

2-82

4-80

286.8
283.9
3.6

1

1-81

1.7
2-81

286.4

1*^_
3-81

291.3
-2.9

289.2

-4. 1

285.3

-0*6

0.6

6*8

4-81

1-82

2-82

2 9 0 . OP

QUARTER

PRELIMINARY




^^

PREPARED

OCTOBER

BY

FEDERAL

20^1982

RESERVE

8ANK

OF

ST.

L O U IS

D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C OME I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
C OMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S QF C H A N G E ___________
TERMINAL
QUARTER
-4—77

INITIAL
1-78

2-7A

. 3=2B_

4-78

1-79

1-78

J.1.6

13.3

12.3

13.2

13.0

1-79

12.3

12.9

. 12.7

12.6

ll.fi

11.9

11.?

10.8

. 3— fiO

4-eo

1-61

2-81

3-8 1

4-61

1-62

2-82

9.5
JL1.2

2-flO

-_12.1

2-79

1-80..

13.0

4 — 78

h =7 9

..13.6

12.1

.2 = 1 9

9.7

2-78

2-79

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RA T ES

QUARTER

. 1 - 7 8 ...

1.405*7
1 *451 . 3
1.4 9 6-2
1 3 . Q.

1.542.7

<
\

<
N

3-79

12.0

12.4

12.1

11.9

11.5

4— 79

.1 1 J

12.0

ll.fi

11«?

11.2

12.1

1L»9_

1 .587*5

1-80

11.8

2-80

.11*0

3-80

11.3

11. z.

11.5

10.5

11.5- JU U 3 _ 11.1

10.8

13_. 0_

1.674.3

11.5
11.3

10.6

10.1

11.9

11.4

9.7

10.0

11.1 . 10.8

1.624*0

£*6

10.8

10.2

10.3

9.1

1.714.9
12.7

1.766.9

- J . 9 _ _3»2

1.781.0
15.3

1.845.5

4— 8 0

.1 1 . 5 _

11.6 . 11.4

1 1 .3 _ 11.1

10.9

11.1

10.8

11.0

10.4

14.2

13.0

1-81

_ n .5

1L.7.,

11.5

1 1.4

11.2

11.1

11*3

11.0

11.2

10.9

13.5

12.6

12.3

2-81

11.3

1 1.4

11.2

11.1

10.9

10.7

10.9

10.6

10*7

10*3

12* 1

11* 1

1 0*1

7*9

3-81

11.4

11.5

11.4

11.2

11.1

11.0

11.1

10.9

11.0

10.8

12.3

11.6

11.2

10.6

13.3

4-81

11.2

11.3

11.2

11.0

10.9

10.7

10.9

10.6

10.7

10.4

11.7

10.9

10.4

9.8

10.8

1.902.9
1.958.7
1.996*5
2.060*0
8.3

2.101.4

1-62

10.7

10.8

10.6

10.4

10.2

10.1

10.1

9.8

9.8

9.5

10.4

9.6

8.9

8 *1

8.1

5.6

3.0

2-62

10.5

10.5

10.3

10.2

10.0

9.6

9.8

9.5

9.5

9.1

9.9

9.2

8.5

7.8

7.8

6*0

4.8

6.7

3-82

10.5

10.5

10.3

10.1

10.0

9.8

9.8

9.6

9.5

9.2

9.9

9.2

8.7

8.JL

8.2

6.9

6.5

8.2

9.8

4-77

1-78

2-78

3-78

4-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

4 —79

1-80

2-80

3-80

4-80

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

INITIAL
P-

1-81

2.117*1
2.151.5
2.202.3P

QUARTER

PRELIMINARY

D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O ME I N 1 9 7 2 D O L L A R S
COMPOUND E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E ________
TERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL
4-77

1-78

2-78

3-78

4-78

1-78
2-78

3.5
3.9

4*3

4.0

4.3

4.5

3.7

3.9

3.9

3.4

3.1

3.1

2.9

2.4

1.4

1-80

2-80

3-80

4-60

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-62

2-82

2.5

2-79

4-79

4.3

1-79

3-79

4.7

4-78

2-79

3.9

3-78

1-79

3.1

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL R A T E S

QUARTER

973.4
982.8
994.2
1.004.8
1.011.1
1.011.7

0.2

3-79

3.2

3.2

3.0

2.6

2.0

1.7

3.2

4-79

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.1

1.5

1.2

1.7

0.1

1.019.8

1-fiO

2.6

2.5

2.3

1.9

1.4

1.2

1.5

0.6

1.020.1
1.1

1.022.0
1.005.5

2 — 80

1.6

1.5

1.1

0.6

0.0

-0.4

—0 . 6

-1.9

-2.8

-6.6

3-60

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.2

0.8

0.5

0.5

-0.2

-0.2

-0.9

5. 1

4 — 80

2*0

1.9

1*7

1.4

1*0

0*8

0.9

0.5

0.5

0.4

4. 1

3.0

1-81

2.1

2.1

1.9

1.6

1.3

1.2

1.3

1.0

1.2

1.2

3.9

3.3

3.7

7-81

2.0

2*0

1.8

1.5

1.3

1.1

1.2

0.9

1.1

1.1

3. 1

2.4

2.1

0.6

3 — fl l

2*2

2*2

2*0

1 *8

1*6

1 *5

1 *6

1.4

1*6

1 *7

3*4

3*0

3.0

2.7

4.8

4 — 81

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.8

1.5

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.6

3. 1

2*6

2.6

2.2

3.0

1.2

1- 8 2

1.9

1*8

1.7

1.5

1*3

1 *2

1.3

1*1

1.2

1.2

2*3

1.9

1.7

1.1

1.3

-0.4

-1.9

7-«?

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.2

1.3

1.4

2.4

2.0

1.9

1.5

1.8

0.8

0.6

3. 1

3-82

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.3

1.4

1.5

2.4

2.1

1.9

1.7

1.9

,1*2_. J L . J

2,1.

4-77

1-78

2-78

3-78

4-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

4-79

1-80

2-80

3-80

4-60

1-81

2-81

INITIAL
p -

1.018.2
1 *025_. 7
1.035.0
1.036.6
1.048.8

3-81

1.051.9

4-81

1.046.9

1-62

... 1.054.6
I » 0 6 0 . 9P

2.3

2-82

QUARTER

preliminary




18

P R E P A R E D BY
OCTOBER 2 0 .

FEDERAL
1982

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LO UIS

CORPORATE P R O F I T S A FT ER T A XE S*
C OMP OU H OE D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E
TERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL

annual

3-77
4— 77

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS

OUAJ t T ER

4-77

1-78

? - 78

3 -7«

4 - 7ft

1-79

2-79

3-79

1-80

4 - 79

7-80

3-80

4— 8 ©

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-8 1

-4.0

125.3

1-78

4 .a

14.4

2-78

lfia B

32.3

129. 6
52.8

144.1

I B .4.

27.0

33.8

17 . 1

149.9

4-78

20.5

27.6

32.3

23.1

159.9

1-79

17.5

22.3

24.4

16 . 1

n ■6

3 ,3

2-79

16.1

19.9

21.0

14

13

5■
ft

3-79

15.7

18.9

19.6

13

1 3 .1

ft . ?

10.7

t
1

■
J

C
O

rates

1-82

29.5

161.2
8.4

164.5
13.0

169.6

4-79

12.5

14.8

14.8

? •4

8 .0

3,. 2

3.2

0.6

-10.4

1-80

13.3

15.4

15.5

11 . 0

10.0

6.5

7.3

6.9

3.9

2 — BO

4.9

5.8

4.9

0,>1

- 2 •2

- 6 , ,6

—8 . 5 - 1 2 . 3

3-80

7.2

8.3

7.7

3, >6

?,•0

-1, >4

-2.2

4-BO

7.1

8.1

7.5

3, . 8

2, •
4

-0 ,>6

1-81

7.2

8.1

7.6

4. » 3

3 .1

0. . 5

2-81

3.9

4*5

3.8

0,. 5

-f) .9

- 3<.5

0, . 2

165.0
2 0 - >6

172.9

-19.4

— 2 3 . ,5 - 5 1 . 5

—4 . 2

-8.1

- 7 , .3 - 1 1 . 7

36.2

-1.1

-2.6

-5.5

- 4 . ,2 - 1 1 . 2

20.0

5.8

0.1

-1.0

-3.2

- 1 . .7

-6.5

16.3

7.4

9.2

-4.2

-5.7

-8.1

- 7 . ,7 - 1 2 . 6

1.3

-8.2

-14.5

144.3
155.9
158.1
161.6
146.2

-33.0

3-81

4.5

5.1

4.4

1,. 4

- 2 « .1

-2 .6

-3.8

-5.7

- 5 . .0

-8.7

3.6

-3.3

—6 . 1 - 1 2 . 9

13.2

4-81

3.2

3.7

3.0

0.

- 1 ,0
.

-3,

-3.8

-4.9

-6.8

- 6 . ,3

-9.6

0.3

-5.7

-8.3

-13.5

-1.8

1-82

-2.1

-2 .0

-2.9

— 5« . 8

-7 , . 3

- 9 . .ft - 1 0 . 6

-12.2

-14.4

— 14*

-18.4

-12.2

-18.4

-2 2.5

—2 8 . 8

-77*4

-41

2-82

-1.8

-1 .6

-2.5

- 5 . ,2

-6 , . 5

- B i ,7

-9.6

-10.9

-12.8

- 1 3 . ,1 - 1 6 . 2

*1 0 . 2

-15.4

-18.5

-23.1

-2 0 .5

-2 9 .3

-35.6

4.6

3-77

4-77

1-78

2-78

3-78

4-78

1-79

2-79

3-79

2-80

3-80

4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

150.fi
-14.8

.ft

144.9
115.0

—6 0 . 3

116.3

N.A.

3-82
4-79

INITIAL
* NATIONAL

INCONE

1-80
QUARTER

BASIS

N.A. - NOT AVAILABLEPREPAREO BY
OCTOBER 2 0 .

FEDERAL
1982

RESERVE

BANK

HISTORICAL SOURCES OF
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA

The NIPA estimates for 1929-76 are in The National Income
and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-76: Statistical
Tables (Stock number W3-0l 0 - 0 0 1 0 l -l , price J10.00). Estimatesfor
1977-81 will appear in the July 1982 Survey Current Business.
Estimates for the periods since, appear in subsquent issues of the
monthly Survey of Current Business« These publications present the
results of the comprehensive revision of the national income and
product accounts described in the December 1980 Survey, and are
available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402.
For further information, write to the National Income and
Wealth Division (8E-54) Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department
of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230.




19

OF

ST.

LOUIS

INVENTORIES

COMPARED

WI T H

MANUFACTURING

AND

MONTHLY

SALES*

TRADE

1

68

1

64

1 . 60

60

1 . 56

56

1 . 52

52

1

48

44

40

36

I

32
1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

* * RATI OS

B ASE D

ON S E A S O N A L L Y

SHADED

AREAS

REPRESENT

* DAT A R E V I S E D
LATEST

DATA

FROM

A DJ U S T E D

PERI ODS

OF

1974

1975

1976

1977

DATA.

BUSINESS

1978

S OUR C E :

1979

1980

U . S . DE P AR TME NT

19 8 1
OF

1982

COMMERCE

RECESSIONS.

1981 .

PLOTTED:




1973

AUGUST

PRELI MI NARY
PREPARED

20

BY

FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LOUI S


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102