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n n n o n f l L E c o n o m it r e i i d s
c
PREPARED

M O N TH E N D IN G :

BY

FEDERAL

September 30, 1974

RESERVE

B AN K

OF

ST. LO UIS

RELEASED:

October 24, 1974

Total spending for goods and services (nominal GNP)
. advanced at an 8.3 percent annual rate in the. third quarter,
the same rate as in the previous year. By comparison, total
spending rose at a 10.2 percent average annual rate during 1971
and 1972.
The nation's real output (GNP adjusted for price
changes) fell at a 2.9 percent annual rate in the third quar­
ter, marking the third successive quarter of decline. The
level of output remains below that of early 1973. By com­
parison, real output rose at a 6.3 percent average annual
rate from early 1971 to early 1973.
Monthly indicators of real economic activity do not
indicate weakness to the same extent that real output does.
Total employment has increased at a 2.5 percent average annual
rate from early 1973 to present and industrial production is
up at a 1.1 percent average rate. Even during the period of
three successive quarters of decline in real output, from
fourth quarter 1973 to third quarter 1974, total civilian
employment increased at a 1.1 percent annual rate. During
this period industrial production declined at a 1.7 percent
annual rate compared to a drop in real output at a 3.9 percent
rate.
Despite a slowing in total spending growth and re­
cent declines in real output, price developments have dominated
the economic scene. The general level of prices, as measured
by the GNP deflator, increased at an 11.5 percent annual rate
in the third quarter, even faster than the 9.6 percent advance
posted in the previous year. Consumer prices also accelerated
in the most recent quarter compared to the previous year. About
the only basis for optimism is the fact that wholesale indus­
trial prices "slowed" to a 13.1 percent rate of advance in Sep­
tember, compared to a 28 percent increase in the previous year.
However, observing a slowing for one month provides a very uncer­
tain foundation for optimism with regard to a rapid restoration
of price stability.




TOTAL CIVILIAN tMPLOYMENT
CCMPCUNO f c O ANN U A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E
T E R M I N A L ________________________________________________ __________________I N I T I A L M O N T H ____________________________
MONTH
2-73 3 - 7 3
4-73
5-73 6-73
2-74 3-74 4-74
7-73
8-73
9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73
1-7 4
3-73

4.6
3.5

1.2

4 .9

1.5

2.4

2 .7

-0 .0

S-74

8 .4

3.7.

7-74

1.4
4. 6

6-74

i.O

5-7 3

5-74

THOUSANDS
Or P e r s o n s

a .3

4-73

_____

83*782

6-73

4.7

3.0

7-7 3

4.1

,,3.0

8-7 3

3.1

2.1

83»854
83»950
84,518
84«621
84* 513

-1.5

85*133

9-7 3

4.0

3.3

5.7

4 .3

2.9

3.7

9.2

10-73

4.4

3 .9

4.3

4 .9

4.1

4.9

8.3

7 .5

11-73

3 .9

3 .4

3*7

4 .1

3.2

3 .7

5.5

3.,

r
1 „ >

12-73

3.5

3.0

3.3

3 .5

2.7

3 .0

4.2

2 .5

0.1

85*649
85*649
S

m

85*669

.

85*811

1-74

3 .4

2.9

3.1

3 .3

2.6

2.8;

3.7

2 .4

0.8

l.J

2 .0 s

2-74

3.1

2.6

2*8

3.Ü

2 .3

2. 4

3.1

1.9

0.5

Ü .7

0.9

3-74

2 .«
3

2.7

2.1

2 .2

2.8

Í. 7

0. 6

0 .8

0.9

0 .4

0.3

0.4

0.4

- 0 .2

- 0 .2

J

l 5____ 2 . 6 _

4-74

2,6

2* 2

2.3

2.4

1.8

1.8

2.2

1.3

85 » 803

- o 7 ï\
0 .8 s

,41.11%

85*863
85*775

- 1 .2 ^

5-74

2*fc

2.2

2 .3

2 .4

1.9

1.9

2.3

1.5

0.6

0.&

0.8

0 .6

0 .8

0 .8

2 .8 s

85*971

6-74

?» 6

2.3

2.4

2 .4

1.9

2 .0

2 .4

1 .6

0.9

l.C

1.2

1.0

1.3

1 .4

2 .8

86 * 165

7-74

2.6

¿ .3

2.3

2 .4

2 .0

2 .0

2.3

1.7

1.0

1.2

1.3

1.2

1.4

1 .6

2 .5

8-74

2.4

2 .0

2.1

2.1

1.7

1.7

2.0

1.4

0.8

0 .6

0 .9

0 .8

0.9

0 .9

9-74

2.5

2 .2

2.2

2 .3

1.9

1 .9

2.2

1.7

1.1

1.2

1.4

1.3

1.5

1.6

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

8-73

9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

3-74

86*312

2 .4

2.1

1.4

1.0

0.2

2.1

2 .0

1.7

1 .6

U

4-74

5-74

6-74

7-74

8-74

4-74

5-74

6-74

7-74

8-74

- i . r V

86*187
86*538

INITTÄL M
ÖKTH

PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
C O H P C U N O E O A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E

2-73
3-73

THOUSANDS
OÉ P E R S O N S

INITIAL MO N T H

TERMINAL
MONTH
3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

8-73

9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73

1-74

2-74

74*914

3.2

75*105

4-73

3.2

3.1

5-73

3 .3

3.3

3.5

6-73

3.3

3.3

3.4

7-73

2«*
>

2.3

2.0

1.3

- 0 .8

8-73

2.8

¿ .7

2.6

2 .3

1.8

4 .4

9-73

2.9

2 ,a

2.8

2 .6

2.3

3 .9

3.4

3.3

3 .3

3.4

3 .4

3.4

4 .8

5.0

10-73

75*321
75*526

3.3

75*478
75*747
75*961
76*363

6 .5

11-73

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.7

4 .8

5.0

5 .8

'
1 5 >

12-73

3.1

3.1

3,1

3.0

2.9

3.7

3.5

3 .5

2.1

-0 . 8 N v

1-74

2 .6

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.8

2.5

2 .2

0.9

- 1 .2

2-74

2.8

2.3

2.7

2 .6

2.6

3.1

2 .8

2 .7

1.8

0 .7

1.5

4 .6 ^

3-74

2 .6

2.5

2.5

2 .4

2.3

2 .6

2.4

2 .2

1.4

0 .5

0.9

2 .2

-0 .1

4-74

2 .5

2 .5

2.4

2.3

2 .3

2 .6

2 .4

2 .2

1.5

1.0

2 . 2 SV^

76*941

5-74

2 .6

2 .5

2 .5

2 .4

2.3

2 .6

2.5

2 .3

1.7

1.7

2 .6

77*136

6-74

2 .4

2 .3

2.3

2 .2

2.1

2.3

2.1

2 .0

1.5

0 .9

1.2

1.8

1.1

1.6

1.3

- 0 .5 s

7-74

2 .2

2.1

2.1

2 .0

1.9

2.1

1.9

1.7

1.2

0 .7

0.9

1.4

0 .7

1 .0

0 .6

- 0 .7

8-74

2.1

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.8

2.0

1.8

1.7

1.2

0 .8

1.0

1 .3

0 .8

1.0

0 .7

-0.1

2 .0

2 .0

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.9

1.7

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

8-73

- l.o

76*526

<
M

•

1.2

1.6

2 .4

1

CD!

•1

2 .2

o

9-74

76*679
76*626

76*813
76*804

3 . l \

77*101
-

o

77*047

. r v

0.1

1 .0 s

77* U 3 P
7 7 *146P

0 .9

1.2

0 .7

0 .9

0 .6

0 .0

0.2

0 .8

9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

5-74

6-74

7-74

1.6

1.1

0 .7

0.5^
8-74

INITIAL Mo n t h
P- PRELIMINARY




P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V É
O C T O B E R 4, 1 9 7 4

2

B A N K OF ST. L O U Ï S




EMPL OYMENT
RATIO

RATIO

S CA L E

MILLIONS

M ILLIONS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

OF P E R S ON S

SCALE

OF P E R S O N S
1 00

100
i
»

»

$ —

*

i

1

*

?

5

W,

95

95
$

*

1

i

*

*

90

S

90

4 h t z

T O T A

85

85

'+ 3 . 3Z ~

+ I.9 Z

80

80

>/. t z

- 0 t z

75

. n

-O .S .r

i

+ 3 .7 Z

75

r
+ 1.4* t

70

70

j

~ v
- 0 . 1 rz

> i.r z ^

P A Y R O L t

65

65

60

60
1

s

*

i

?

t

Ü

*
♦

t
55 •

1966

5

1967

1968

?

1969

1970

1971

1972

t

1973

55

1974

IWRtli V.I.tCfAITMtlt

m

IM H

PER6ENTABES ARI ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN8E FOR I
LATEST BATA PLOTTED« SEPTEMBER PREL IN INARY

U NEMPL OYMENT R A T E S *
SEASONALLY

PERCENT

ADJUSTED

PERCENT
7.0

6.0

5.0

4.0

3.0

2.0

1 .0

0.0

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972
S O U R C Ei

«PERCEN T
LATEST

OF

C IV ILIA N

LABO R

FO RCE

DATA

PLO TTE D t

IN

U .S .

1973

19 7 4

D EPARTM EN T

OF LABOR

CROUP

S EPTEM B ER
PR EP A R E D

3

BY

FE D E R A L

R ES ER V E

BANK

OF S T .

L O U IS

CONSUMER P R IC E IN D EX, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL

1967 * 100

IN IT IA L MONTH

3-73

4-73

5-73

6 -7 3

7-73

8-73

73 12-73
9-73 10-73 11—

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

5-74

l

3-73

*

2-73

Ch

month

7-74

8-74
129.88

10.3

4 -7 3

9 .4

130.71

7.9

131.45

5-73

a .6

7 .5

7,0

6-73

8 .3

7 .5

7.3

7 .6

7-73

7.0

6.1

5.5

4 .7

2 .0

8-73

9 .3

9 .6

10.1

11.1

12.9

2 4 .9

9-73

132.25
132.47
134.95
135.50

9 .1

d. 8

9 .0

9 .5

10.2

14.5

5 .0

10-73

9 «3

9 .0

S .2

9 .7

10.2

13.1

7.6

10.2

11-73

9 .3

9 .1

9*3

9 .7

10.1

12.2

8.3

10.0

136.60
137.67

9.8

138.50

12-73

9 .1

8 .9

9.1

9 .4

9 .7

11.3

8.1

9 .2

8.6

7 .5

1—
74

9 .5

9 .4

9 .6

9 .9

10.2

11.0

9.2

10.2

10.2

10.5

13.5

2-74

1 0.0

1 0 .0

10 .2

10.5

10.9

12.2

10.2

11.3

11.6

12.2

14.6

15.7

3-74

1 0 .3

1 0.2

10.5

10 .8

11.2

12.4

10.7

11.7

12.0

12.5

14.2

14.6

13.6

4-74

10.1

1 0 .0

10.2

10.5

10 .8

11.8

10.2

11 .0

11.1

11.4

12.4

12.1

10.3

7 .1

5-74

10.3

1 0 .2

1 0 .4

10.7

1 1 .0

12.0

10.6

11.3

11.5

11.8

12.6

12.4

11.4

10.3

13.5

6—74

1 0.4

10.«

1 0 .6

10.8

11.1

12.0

10.8

11.4

11.6

11.8

12.6 ; 12.4

11.6

10.9

12.8

139.97
141.68
143.19
144.01
145.54
146.94

12.2

148.05

7-74

10.3

10 « 3

1 0 .5

1 0 .7

11.0

11.8

10*6

11.2

11.3

11.5

12.1

11.9

11.1

10.5

11.7

10.8

9 .5

8-74

1 0.7

1 0 .7

10.9

11.2

11.4

12.2

11.2

11.8

11.9

12.1

12.7

12.6

12.1

11.9

13.1

12.9

13.3

17.3

9 -7 4

1 1.0

1 1.0

11.2

11.5

11.7

12.4

11.5

12.1

12.3

12.5

13.1

13.1

12.7

12.5

13.7

13.7

14.2

16.7

16.0

2-73

3 -7 3

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

8-73

9-73 10-73 11-72. 12-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4 -7 4

5-74

6-74

7 -7 4

8-74

I n it ia l

150.03
151.90

month

PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
OCTOBER 22, 1974
WHOLESALE P R IC ES - INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES, SEASONALLY ADJUSTEO
______________________ C O M P O U N D E D

ANNUAL

R A T E S _ . Q g . . . C H A N G E __________________________________________________________________:
__________

MONTH
.2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

8-73

9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

5-74

6-74

7-74

8-74
122.59

3-73

14.3

4-73

13.1

12.0

5-73

12.8

12.1

12.2

6-73

11.9

11.1

10.7

9 .2

7-73

9.6

8 .5

7.4

5 .0

l.l

8-73

9-2

fl.3

7.3

5 .8

4 .1

9 .3

8 .5

7.9

6 .8

9-73

123.75
124.94
125.86

6 .0

125.97
126.71

7.3
8.6

10.0

127.71

9 .9

10-73

9 .4

8 .8

8.2

7.5

7.0

9.1

11-75

10.5

10.0

9 .8

9 .4

9 .4

11.6

12-73

11.3

11.0

10.8

10.7

10.9

15.0

128.74

10.1
14.7

14.4

19.5

16.0

19.1

130.67
18.6

132.54
135.22

-—
1 74

12.7

12.5

12.5

12.6

13.1

15.2

16.9

18.7

21.7

22.8

27.2

2-74

13.9

13.9

14.1

14.3

15.0

17.1

18.8

20.7

23.5

2 4 .8

28^1

3-74

-15.3

16.0

16.3

16.8

17.6

19.9

21.8

23.9

26.9

28.8

32.3** 3 5 .0

4 1 .3

142.16
38.5

146.07

2 9 .0

138.12

4-74

X I .1

17.6

18.0

18.6

19.6

21.8

23.8

25.9

2 8 .7

30.7

3 3 .9

36 .2

39.9

5-74

18.6

18.9

19-5

20.1

21.1

23.4

25.3

27.4

3 0 .0

3 1 .9

3 4 .7 r 3 6 .7

3 9 .3

38.3

3 8 .2

6-74

19.3

1 9 .7

20.2

20.9

21.9

24.0

25*8

27.7

30.1

3 1 .7

34 .0

3 5 .4

37.1

3 5 .7

3 4 .3

30.5

7-74

20.4

2 0 .8

2 1 .4

22.1

23.1

25.1

26.9

28.7

31.0

3 2 .5

34.6 l

35.9

37*3

3 6 .4

3 5 .7

34.4

•f

150.06
153.43
157.64

38.4

8-74

21.1

21.5

22.2

22.9

23.9

25.9

2 7 .6

29 .3

31.4

3 2 .8

3 4 .7

35.8

36.9

36.1

35 .5

34.6

3 6 .6

3 4 .9

9-74

20.7

21 «1

21.6

22. 2_ 23.2

24.9

2 6 .4

2 7 .9

29.6

3 0 .7

3 2 .1

32.7

3 3 .2

31.9

3 0 .7

28.8

28.3

2 3 .5

13.1

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

8-73

9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

5-74

6-74

7-74

8-74




161.62
163.29

IN IT IA L MONTH

PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LO U IS
OCTOBER 10* 1974

4




RATIO

PRICES

SCALE

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PER 1008
LATEST DATA PLO TTEO i

RATIO

INDICATED.

SEPTENBER
PREPARED 8Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T.

ratio

scale

WHOLESALE PRI CES

PERCENTA8ES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN8E FOR PERIOOS
LATEST DATA PLOTTCDi

SCALE

LOUIS

ratio

scale

INOICATEO.

SIPTEMSCR
PREPARCO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST.

5

LOUIS

WHOLESALE P R IC ES - ALL COMMODITIES» SEASONALLY AOJUSTED
C Q M P m UtfD£D A N N U A L R ATES. O E . X M A NfiE. TFRMINAI
MONTH
5-75

IMVTfAl
7-7 5

5-75

4-7 5

5-71

A- 75

7-75

fl-75

10-75

1 9 6 7 - 100

MONTH

1 1 - 7 5 12— 75

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

5-74

6-74

7-74

8-74

29 *7

I f f t S I ..
.

4-75

19. 5

10- 1

130.27

5-75

21-2

17-1

24-6

7-75

14. 2

10 . 6

1 J.7

«2.68
1 3 5 . 5 0 ---133.63

4.4 -15.4

141.8»

8-75

25.f
l

25.1

29. 1

30.7

31.7 104.9

9-73

18. 7

17.0

18.4

16. 9

13.2

10-73

16 . 0

14.2

14.<4

13.1

9.5

19.3

-9.0

-0.9

1 1-75

15-0

13.3

13.a

12.1

9.0

16.1

-3.9

3.0

.11*1

10. 9

17.1

1.8

8.7

13.9

21.0

1-74

1 7.7

16.5

1 7.3

16.4

1 4.7

20 . 7

8.5

15.9

22 . 1

30.3

40*3 _

2-74

17.8

16 . 8

1 f.5

16.7

lb.3

¿ 0. *

10.3

16 . 6

21.4

26*6

29.4

3-74

17-i»

16.6

17.3

16.5

15.3

li.d

11 . 0

16.1

20.1

23.6

-24*5

17.3

15*1

4-74

17-4

1£.5

17. 0

16.3

15.2

19.2

11 . 4

16. C

19.1

21.7

21.9

16.3

14*_7

14.3

«5-74

17- 5

1 fc-5

17.0

16.4

15 - “
i

1H- 3

12.0

16-1

lfl.A

20.8

20.8

16.4

15.4

15.5

A-74

16- 6

15- 7

16-1

15-5

14-5

17. 7

11 . 3

14.9

17_.l

18.6

18.2

14.2

12.9

12*2

11.1

5_. 8

7-74

13-5

17.9

18.4

18-0

17.2

2 J. *
»

14 . 7

18.4

20.0

22 . 6

22.8

20.1

20.3

21.6

2 4 .1

28. l _

a—
74

20.4

19.9

20.5

20. J

19.7

22.9

17.8

21.5

24.0

26.1

26.7

2 4 ,9

25.8

28.1

3 1 .8

37.3

56.3

57 .6

21 .2

16.4

19.7

21.8

23.3

23.6

21.6

22,0

23.1

25 .0

27.1

35.2

2 6 .2

1.1

3-74

'4-74

5-74

6-74

7-74

8-74

6-74

7-74

8-74

9-74

19.3

18. a

19.3

19.0

18.4

139.76

30.9 - 1 6 . 4

139.65
1*0.46

7.2
__

142.71
146.79
148.98

19.4

150.74
152.43
154.40

16.7

155.13
5 5.0

160.90
167.12
167.27

.
2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

8-73

9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73

1-74

2-74

IN IT IA L MONTH

WHOLESALE PRICES-FARM PRODUCTS AND PROCESSED FOOOS AND FEEDS» SEA S. A D J.
A N N U A L . RJ L I E S JQF C H A N G ? ___________________________

_____________________________C J O a f i C U M O l O

INITIAL MONTH

TERM INAL.....

1967 « 100

month

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6—
73_

7-73

a - 73

9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73

1-74 _ 2-74

3-74

4-74

5-74

3-73 .. 11. a

147.4

7.6

4-Zi

148.1

..
.

5-73

42«7

30.1

57.2

6-73

51.1

44.8

68.0

7-7.3.

24» 9 . 15^.4. —1 j 1
.8

8-73

70*7

70.5

91.3 104.2 _117 «_8_ 713.1

9-73

43.3

39.0

46.3

A3.7

10-73

154.0

79.6

161.7

. .¿,4 -.4 1 0 .

154.6
184.1

33.5 101.9 -49.9

173.8
170.0

32.5

27.7

31.4

26.8

16.2

46.2 -38,0 -2 3 .3

11-73

J A m J

2 2 .0

24.2

19.4

10.1

2 9 .C -3 0 .2 - 1 7 .5 -11 .4

12-73

..¿5*2 . 2 a .9

22.6

18.3

10.4

25.4 - 2 1 .4 _-_3_* 7_ - 0 .4

12.0

25.2

¿2*4... ¿4 *1

17.7

32.3

- 8 .0

7.1

19.7

3 9 .0

23.3

25.0

16.1

28. 1

- 5 .9

6 .8

16.0

26j 8_ 34.9

19.7

1-14

28-9

2-74
lr T ±

4-74
5-74
b~TA

21.7

21.8

11. V
i

7 2 *5

177.8

5 .5

178.6

11. 1 . lo.-a - U . 2 - 2 5 .4

- 9 .0

o .c

6.2

6.3

13.6 -1 1 .2

- 3 .6

0.1

2 .6

8.1

3 .2

9.2 - 1 2 .6

- 6 .3

- 3 .6

-2 .2

-4 .9 -1 8 .0 ?.2 4 4 . - 2 4 .3 - 2 3 .2
_ .« _

166.4

1*5

- 1 .2

3 .7 -15.6 -1 0 .6

-8 .9

- 8 .5 -1 1 .5 -2 2 ,6 - 2 8 .4 - 2 9 .3 -3 1 .3 -3 8 .5

159.8

U t 2 -LSU3-.

.._10«i

.11*5... 14.1 -14.7 . 11.5
14.2

168.3
169.9

11.2

9.9 __ ¡LaJ. _

174.3

0.4 -1 6 .2 -2 5 .4 -2 5 .4

170.1

7-74

14.2

8 .9

4 .8

10.0

-8 .3

- 2 .5

C.l

1.6

0.2

- 7 .1

0 .0

14.1 111.6

170.1

8-74

19.0

17.1

14.8

11.2

16 .8

- 0 .6

5 .8

9.2

11.8

11.8

5.1

5.0

12.4

24.5

46.3 125.6 140.4

183.0

9-74

14.5 .l A * i . _JL4j .4

1 2 .2

13 #7

-¿*3

3 .3

6.1

8 .0

7 ,6

I .4

0.9

6.1

13.8

25.5

59.2

38.1 - 2 0 .7

179.5

3-73

5-73

7-73

8-73

9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

5-74

6-74

7-74

2-73

_LL*3_ 11.6

16.5

4-73




8.76-73

IN IT IA L

- 8 .5 -1 1 .0

8-74

MONTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LO U IS
OCTOBER 10. 1974

6

___

INDUSTRIAL

PRODUCTION
RATIO

RATIO SCALE
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1967-100

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

SCALE

1967-100

1971

1972

1973

1974

PERCENTA6ES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CNAN8E FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED. SEPTENSER PRELIMINARY

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
IN IT IA L. MONTH

TERMINAL
MONTH
2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

8-73

9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73

1967 * 100

,
1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

5-74

6-74

7-74

8-74
123.7

3-73

124.1

4-73

3 .5

4 .0

5-73

5.0

6 .0

8 .0

124.9

6-73

5 .4

6 .3

7 .5

125.6
126.7

7-73

6 .5

7 .5

8 .6

9 .0

11.0

8-73

5.1

5 .5

5 .9

5.2

4 .4

- 1 .9

9-73

4 .8

5.1

5.3

4 .6

3.9

0 .5

2 .9

10-73

4 .4

4 .6

4 .7

4 .1

3 .4

1 .0

2 .4

1 .9

11-73

4 .5

4 .6

4 .7

4 .2

3 .7

1.9

3.2

3 .4

12-73

3 .0

3 .0

2.9

2 .2

1.4

- 0 .4

0 .0

- 0 .9

126.5
126.8
127.0
127.5

4 .8 ]

126.5

-2 .3

125.4

1-74

1 •8

1.7

1.4

0 .6

- 0 .3

- 2 .0

-2 .1

- 3 .3

- 4 .9

- 9 .5

- 9 .9

2-74

1.0

0 .8

0 .5

-0 .3

- 1 .2

- 2 .8

- 3 .0

- 4 .1

- 5 .6

- 8 .8

- 8 .7

- 7 .4

124.6
124,7

3-74

1.0

0 .8

0 .5

- 0 .2

- 1 .0

- 2 .4

- 2 .4

- 3 .3

- 4 .3

- 6 .4

- 5 .6

- 3 .3

1.0

4-74

1.0

0 .9

0 .6

0 .0

- 0 .7

- 1 .9

- 1 .9

- 2 .6

- 3 .3

- 4 .8

- 3 .7

- 1 .6

1.5

1.9

5-74

1.5

1.4

1 .2

0 .6

0 .1

- 0 .9

—0 .8

- 1 .3

- 1 .7

- 2 .8

- 1 .5

0 .7

3 .6

4 .9

« .0

6-74

1.5

1 .4

1 .2

0 .7

0 .2

- 0 .8

-0 .7

- 1 .1

-1 .4

- 2 .3

- 1 .1

0 .8

2.9

3 .6

4 .4

7-74

1.3

1.1

1.0

0 .5

o .o

- 0 .9

- 0 .8

- 1 .1

- 1 .5

-2 .2

- 1 .2

0 .3

1.9

2 .2

2 .3

- 0 .5

- 1 .9

8-74

0 .9

0 .8

0 .6

0.1

- 0 .3

- 1 .2

- 1 .1

- 1 .5

- 1 .8

- 2 .5

-1*7

- 0 .4

0 .8

0 .8

0 .5

-1 .9

-3 .3

- ,.7 V

9-74

1.1

1.0

0 .8

0 .4

- 0 .1

- 0 .8

- 0 .7

- 1 .0

- 1 .3

- 1 .9

-1.1

0 .1

1.2

1 .3

1 .2

- 0 .5

- 1 .0

- 0 .5

2-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

8-73

9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

5-74

6-74

7-74

124.9
125.7
125.8
125.6
>
3 .9 ^

12 5 .IP
125.5P

8-74

IN IT IA L MONTH
P- PRELIM INARY




p r T F â W Ô V t £ M R Æ ~ K E 5 E ,tVE ÔÀfcK
f
OCTOBER 16« 1974

7

ÒP

ST. LOUIS

PERSONAL
RATIO

SCALE

TRILLIONS

I NCOME
RATIO

MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES

OF D O L L A R S

TRILLIONS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

SCALE

OF D O L L A R S

1.3

1.3

1 .2

1 .2

^=1^740

1. I
1 .0

1. 1
1 .0

w. oz1

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.8
+9. 4 Z ^

0.7

0.7
+

4. Si

+8. 3 Z ^

0.6

0.6

0.5

0.5

8

i

n

0.4 t
19 6 6

\

t

♦

1967

1968

1969

1970

1971
SOURCE*

PER C E N TA G ES A RE AN NUAL R A T ES
LATEST

$
*

?

»&

DATA P L O T T E O t

OF CHANCE FOR PE R IO D S

S E P TE M B E R

t
1972
U .S .

1973

0.4

1974

D EPA R TM EN T

OF COMMERCE

IN O IC A T E D .

PR E L IM IN A R Y
PR EP A R E D

B Y FE D E R A L

R ES ER V E

BANK OF

ST.

L O U IS

P E R S O N A L !N C O M E
C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E
B I L L I O N S OF
TERM I N &t___________________________________________________________________INITIAL M O N T H ___________________________________________________________________ D O L L A R S
MONTH
ANNUAL RATES
1-74 2-74 3-74 4-74 5-74 6-74
7-74 8-74
2-73 3-73 4-73
5-73 6-73
7-73 8-73 9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73
3-73

12.6

4-73

10.7

Ô«8

1 024.5

5-73

10.0

P. 7

8.7

6-73

10.0

9 .2

_ 9.4

7-73

10.2

9 .5

8-73

10.8

10.4

031.7

1

038.9

1
10.0

I 047.2

10.4

10.7

1 056.1

10.8

I l .î>

.12.3

13.9

13.3

14.6

15.4

13.U

13.9

13.8

12.2

1 067.6

9-73

11.4

11.2

11.7

12.5

10-73

11.5

11.3

11.8

12.4

11-73

11.4

11.3

11.6

12.1

12.5

13.0

12.7

11.4

10.6

12-73

11.1

10.9

11.2

11.5

lt.8

12.0

11.5

10.3

9.3

1

080.4
1 090.8
1 100.0

8.C

1 107.1

1-74

10.0

9 .7

* 9.8

10.0

10.0

9 .9

9.1

7 .6

6.1

3.9

— t
0»

2-74

9 .8

9 .5

9 .6

9 .7

9.6

9 .5

8.8

7.5

6.3

5.0

3.t>

3-74

9 .3

9 .0

9.1

9 .1

9 .0

a. a

8.1

6 .9

5 .9

4.7

3.7

5 .6

4.1

5.0

6 .7

6.5

7.8

8.1... 10.1

11.2

1 107.0
7.2

1 113.4
1 117.1

4-74

9.3

9 .0

9.1

9 .1

9 .0

8 .8

8.2

7 .2

6 .4

5.6

5-74

9 .4

9 .2

9 .2

9 .3

9.2

9.1

8.5

7 .7

7.1

6.5

6-74

9 .4

9 .2

9.2

9 .3

9 .2

9 .1

8 .6

7 .9

7 .3

6 .9

6 .7

8.1

8.3

9 .8

10.2

9.1

7-74

9 .»

9 .7

9.7

9 .8

9.8

9 .7

9.3

8 .7

8 .4

8.1

8.1

9 .5

10.0

i l •5

12.4

13.0

16.9

8-74

9 .7

9 .5

9 .6

9 .6

9.6

9 .5

9.1

8 .6

8.2 _

8.0

8 .0

9.2

9 .5

10.6

11.0

11.0

11.9

7 .2

9-74

9 .7

->
.5

9 .5

9 .6

9 .6

9 .5

9.2

8 .7

8.3

8.1

8.1

9 .2

9 .5

10.4

10.7

10.6

11.1

8 .3

9 .5

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

8-73

9-73 10-73 1 1-73 12-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

5-74

6-74

7-74

8-74

2-73

3-73

INITÎU

9 .1

1 125.2
1 135.2
1 143.5
1 158.5
I

165.2

1 174.0P

MONTH

P - P P f LIMINA-’
Y




P R E P A R E D BY c E D E R A l R E ^ f P V E
O C T O B E R 17. 1 9 7 4

8

B A N K O F ST. L O U I S

RETAIL
RATIO

SALES

SCALE

BILLIONS

1966

RATIO

OF D O L L A R S

1967

BILLIONS

S E A S O N A LLY A D JU S TE D

1968

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

SCALE

OF D O L L A R S

1974

SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT Of COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INOICATEO.
LATEST DATA PLOTTCOt AUCUST, SEPTEMBER ADVANCE ESTIMATE
PREPARED SY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS

R E T A IL SALES
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL
MONTH

IN IT IA L MONTH)

MIIUOIIS 0 »
»

DOLLARS
7-73

3-73

4-73

5-73

6-73

7-73

8-73

9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73

1-74

2-74

3 - T 4 4 -7 *

5-74

6-74

7-74

8-74

3-73

23.7

41 #979

4-73

- o J -

41t l f ?

5-73

4 .7

- 3 .6

u > s .

6-73

- 0 .5

- 7 .5

- 0 .3

41*725
41,16?

7-73

9 .1

5 .7

16.3

16.0

8-7 3

5.5

2.2

0.8

6.2

5 8 .0 ^
18,6 - » > s .

6**155

9-73

5.4

2, 6

8.0

5 ,9

13.9

- 3 .3

42,529

10-73

6- 4

4. 1

8.9

7 .3

13.7

1 .9

11-73

5-6

J.fc

7.6

6.1

10.9

1.5

12-73

2 .5

0 .4

3 .4

4 .7

- 3 .6

- 1 .7

42,767

5 .0 \

9 .0

42,970

1 3 .2 X
6 ,5

42,976

C ^ N v + 6 .6 %

- 3 .8 -1 1 .3 - 2 l 7 s V ^

42,116

1-74

4 .5

2. 7

5.7

4 .4

7.5

0 .8

3 .3

2 .9

.-.0.4

-0 .6

2 5.9

2-74

4.6

3 .0

5.7

4 .5

7.3

1.5

3.7

3 .4

1.1

1 .5

15.4

5 .8

3-74

5.9

4 .5

7.1

6.2

3. 9

3 .9

6.2

6 .4

5,1

6 ,4

17,8

13,9

2 2 .6 \

4-74

6.3

5.1

7.5

6 .7

9.2

4. 8

6 .9

7.2

6 ,2

7.5

16.2

13,2

.17,1

5-74

7. 0

5. 9

a .3

7. 6

9. 9

6.0

8.1

8 .5

7.8

9 .1

16.6

14.3

17.3

14.8

6-74

6. 0

7.1

6. 3

6.3

4.7

6 .4

6 .5

5.7

6 .5

12.1

9 ,5

10,5

6 .7

4 ,3

7-74

8 .6

7.7

9. 9

9.4

11.6

a .4

10.3

10.9

10.6

12.0

17.9

16,6

18,9

18,0

20,1

21,2

59,2

6-74

8.7

7.9

10.0

9.6

11.6

3.6

10,4

10.9

10.7

11,9

17.0

15,8

17.6

16,6

1 7 .8

17,8

33.1

11.3

4 6 , 771P

9-74

7.4

6 .6

8.4

7.9

9.6

6 .6

8 .3

8 .6

8,2

9 .0

13,1

11,6

12.4

10,8

10,6

8,9

15.1

- 2 .2 -14.0^

4 6 , I86E

2-73

3-73

4- 73

5-7 3

6-73

7-73

8-73

9-73 10-73 11-73 12-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

5-74

6-74

7-74

3 * 0

42,932
43,134
43,872

44,283
44,894

1 7 .9 \
- T . S ^

44,593
46,356

8-74

INITIAL M O N T H
P- P R E L I M I N A R Y
- £ = - f ST.IMAT<:D




9

P R E P A R E D BY FE D E R A L
O C T O B E R 10, 1 9 7 4

RESERVE

B A N K O F ST. L O U I S

COMPENSATION PER MAN-H0OKY TOTAL PRIVATE ECONöHV
________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
T E R M I N A L ______________
A I AD t e f
ql u a r T C rt

~

3-69

4-69

1-70

INITIAL S M A R T E R

196 7 * 100

“ --------------------------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------1-----“ *--------------------- ------------------------ --------------— ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ——

2—70

3-70

4-69
1-70

3 .0
7 .7

6 .6

8.1

7 .4

8.1

7 .4

6 .8

7 .0

6 .9

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

1-73

4-72

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

9 .0

4-70

2-71

7.1

3-70

1-71

6 .2

2-70

4-70

9 .9

4 .8

119.5
121.3
123.4
126.1
127.6

i-71

7 .5

7 .0

7.2

7 .2

6 .3

2-71

7.3

6 .9

7.0

7.0

6 .3

7.0

6.3

3-71

7.4

7 .0

7.1

7.1

6 .7

7 .3

7.0

7 .8

4-71

7 .0

6 .6

6 .7

6 .6

6 .1

6 .4

6 .0

5 .8

3 .9

7 .7

130.0
132.0
134.5
139.0

i-72

7 .2

6 .9

7.0

7.v,

6 .7

7.1

6 .9

7.1

6.8

2-72

7 .1

6 .9

7.0

6 .9

6 .6

6 .9

6 .8

6 .9

6.6

8 .0

6 .2

3-72

7.0

6 .7

6 .7

6 .7

6 .4

6 .6

6 .5

6 .5

6.2

6 .9

5.5

4 .9

4-72

7.0

6 .8

6.8

6 .8

6 .5

6 .7

6 .6

6 .7

6 .4

7 .1

6 .2

6 .2

7.5

Ì-7 3

7 .4

7,2

7.3

7 .3

7 .2

7.4

7 .4

7 .5

7.5

8 .2

7 .8

8 .4

10.2

13.0

2-73

7 .3

7.1

7.2

7 .2

7.1

7.3

7.2

7 .3

7 .3

7 .8

7 .5

7 .8

8.8

9 .4

6 .0

3-73

7.2

7.0

7.1

7.1

6 .9

7.1

7.1

7 .2

7.1

7 .5

7 .2

7 .4

8 .0

8.2

5 .8

5 .6

4-73

7.3

7 .1

7.2

7.2

7.0

7.2

7.2

7.3

7.2

7 .6

7 .3

7 .5

8 .0

8 .2

6 .6

7 .0

1-74

7 .2

7.1

7.1

7.1

7.0

7.2

7.1

7.2

7.1

7.5

7.2

7 .4

7.8

7 .8

6 .6

6.8

7 .4

6 .5

2-74

7.6

7 .5

7.5

7.6

7.5

7.7

7.7

7 .8

7.8

8 .2

8 .0

8 .2

8.7

8 .9

8 .1

8.6

9 .6

10.3

14.2

3-69

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-7?

Z-72

3-72

7Ç-72

1-73

"2-73” 3-73

4-73

1-74

9.8

139.0
141.1
142.6
145.4
149.9
152.1
154.2
8.3

157.3
159.8
165.2

INITIAL QUARTER
OUTPUT PER MAN-HOUR, TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
IN IT IA L

TERMINAL

QUARTER

3-69

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

1967 * 100

QUARTER

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74
103.1

4-69

-0 .8

1-70

- 0 .8

- 0 .8

2-70

0 .6

1.4

3.5

3-70

2 .3

3.4

5.5

102.9
103.8
105.7

4-70

1.5

2.1

3.1

2 .9

1-71

2 .8

3 .6

4 .7

5 .0

3 .8

105.3

- 1 .5
9.4

107.7
108.3

2-71

2.7

3 .3

4.2

4 .3

3.3

5.8

2.2

3-71

2.9

3 .4

4.1

4 .2

3 .4

5.1

3 .0

3 .7
3 .4

3.0

109.3
110.1

4-71

2.9

3.3

3.9

4 .0

3 .3

4 .6

3 .0

1-72

3 .0

3.4

4 .0

4 .0

3 .4

4 .5

3.2

3 .6

3.5

4 .1

2-72

3 .2

3 .6

4 .1

4 .2

3 .7

4 .6

3 .7

4. 1

4 .2

4 .8

5 .5 ^ ^

3 .6

4.1

4.1

3.7

4 .5

3.7

4.C

4 .0

4 .4

4 .5

3 .6

4 .6

4 .8

4 .5

3-72
4-72

3.2
3 .4

3 .8

1-73

3 .6

4 .0

2-73

3 .3

3 .6

3-73

3.0

4-73

2 ,8

1-74
2-74

3 .2

4.2

4 .3

3.9

4 .6

3.9

4 .2

4.3

111.2
112.7
113.7
5 .4

115.2
117.0

4 .4

I

3 .9
3 .5

4.1

4 .8

4 .2

4 .5

4 .6

5 .0

5 .2

5 .1

5 .9

6 .4 *

4 .0

3.6

4 .2

3 .6

3 .8

3.8

3 .9

3 .9

3 .5

3 .4

2 .4

- 1 .4

3.1

3.1

2 .9

2 .4

2 .1

1 .0

- 1 .5

- 1 .7 v ^ l . 8 %

116.1

1.7

0 .8

- 1 .0

- 0 .9

116.1

3 .5
3 .3

3 .2
2 .9

3 .6
3 .3

3 .0
2 .8

3 .1
2 .8

2 .7

2 .7

2.5

2 .0

116.6

0 .0

3 .0

3.3

2 .2

2 .4

2 .6

2 .5

2 .2

2 .5

1.9

1.9

1.7

1 .6

1.3

0 .7

0 .2

- 0 .8

- 2 .6

- 3 .0

- 3 .6

- 7 .0

2 .2

2 .3

2.5

2 .5

2.1

2 .4

1.9

1 .8

1.7

1.5

1.3

0 .8

»0.4

- 0 .5

- 1 .8

- 1 .9

- 1 .9

- 2 .9

3-69

4-69 -

7 0" 2-tO
"

3-70

4 -fO

l^ T i

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73




114.0
i> \

114.4

1-74

INITIAL QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERÆC RESERVE B A N K O f S I . tlTO lS
S E P T E M B E R 3, 1 9 7 4

1 0

PRODUCTIVITY, COMPENSATION, AND LABOR COSTS
RATIO

S CA L E

RATIO
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1967-100

SCALE

1967-100

lOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PEftlOOS INDICATED.
LATEST OATA PLOTTED* 2ND QUARTER
PREPARED SY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

UNIT LAPOR XDSTS:,
CCMPCLNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
1967 * 100

IN IT IA L CUARTER

TERMINAL
QUARTER
3-69

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74
115.8

4-69

10.7

1-70

9 .1

7.5

2-70

7.1

5 .4

117.9
118.9

3 .4

4 .7

3.7

3 .9

6.5

3 .4

2.4

CM

©

•

119.3

2 .4

1.4

2.4

- 1 .6

4 .5

3 .5

2 .8

2 .6

3 .0

1.3

3-71

4 .4

3.5

2.9

2 .7

3.1

2 .0

3.8

4-71

4 .0

3 .2

2.6

2 .5

2.7

1.7

2 .9

2.1

1.0

1-72

4.2

3 .5

3.0

2 .9

3.2

2 .6

3 .6

3 .4

3 .4

3.2

2.7

2 .6

2 .8

2.2

3 .0

2 .6

2.4

3.1

0.3

3-70

5 .7

4.1

4-70

5 .8

1-71

4 .6

2-71

2-72

3.8

121.2
-

120.7
122*0

,8 % 1

123*0

3 .3

123*3
125*1

6.0

125*2
125*6

3-72

3 .6

3 .0

2.6

2 .5

2.6

2 .1

2 .7

2 .4

2.1

2.5

0.8

1.3

4-72

3.5

2 .9

2.5

2 .4

2 .5

2 .0

2.6

2 .3

2.1

2.4

1.2

1.6

1.9

1-73

3 .7

3 .2

2.9

2 .5

3 .0

2 .8

2.7

3.1

2 .4

3 .1

4 .0

6 .2

128*1

2-73

3 .9

3 .5

| 2 .8 |
L . :: J
3.2

2 .7
3 .2

3 .3

3 .0

3.5

3 .4

3 .4

3.9

3.4

4 .2

5.2

6 .9

130.5

126.2

132*8

3-73

4.1

3 .7

3.5

3 .5

3.6

3 .4

3.9

3 .8

3.9

4.3

4.1

4 .8

5 .7

7.0

7 .5

7.2

4-73

4 .4

4 .0

3.8

3 .8

4 .0

3 .8

4.3

4 .3

4 .4

4.8

4.7

5 .4

6.3

7 .4

7 .8

7 .8

8 .4

5 .9

6 .7

7.6

8 .8

9 .4

10.0

It.5

14.6

9 .4 | 1 0 .1 | 10.7

11.8

13.6

12.5 ]|

1-73

3-73

4—13

1-74

1-74

4 .9

4 .6

4 .4

4 .5

4 .7

4 .6

5.1

5 .2

5.4

5.9

2-74

5 .3

5.0

4 .9

5 .0

5.2

5.1

5.7

5.8

6 .0

6.5

6 .6

7 .4

8.3

?-6<r- 4~6«>

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

.. .. .. ................




4-72

2-73

135*5
140*2
144.4

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED" BY FFÜFTTfiT"RE5ERVE"”BANK OF S T . L U U I S
S E P T E M B E R 3, 1 9 7 4

11

G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
C OMP O U N D E D ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGS
TERMINAL
QUARTER

B IL L IO N S Of
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

IN IT IA L QUARTER
*-6 9

1-70

2-70

1-70

1-71

4-7Q

2-71_

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-7 2

4-7 £

1-71

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-7*

2-7*

1-70

958.5

2-70

Ä .1 ,

1-70

970.6

6 .1

7 .1

4-70

*•5

4 .7

4 .4

1 .8 >

1-71

6 .&

7 .2

7,9

8 .*

15.1

*-71

t ii

7 .3

7 .9

8 .2

lit ?

7.8

3-71

A.6

7 .0

7 .4

7 .5

9 .5

6.6

5 .5

4-71

6 ,6

7.2

7.6

7 .7

9 .2

7.3

7 .0

8.7 _ iSLfcl- 12.3

9 8 7 .*
9 91.8
1 ,0 2 7 .8
I . 0 * 7 .1
1 ,0 6 1.1

.

1 ,0 8 1 .2

1-72

7 .4

7 .9

8 .2

8^*

9 .8

8 .5

2-T2

7 .7

8 .1

8 .5

8 .7

9 .9

&** ...9.1

1 0 .4

11.3

1 0 .* ^

3-72

X .9

8 .1

8 .6

8 .8

9 .9

9 .0

9.2

10.2

10.7

10.0

9 .5

4-72

8*1

8 .7

9 .0

9 .2

1 0 .2

9.5

9.8

10.7

11.2

10. 9

11,1

1 ,1 1 5 .0
1 .1 * 1 .0
¿ 9 .9 %

1 .1 6 9 .1

12,7

i« 2 0 * ,7

1-71

8 .8

9 .2

9 .6

9 .9

10.8

10.2

10.6

11.

12.1

12.0

12.5

14, i

15.5

2-73

8 .9

9 .1

- 9 .6

9 .8

10.7

10.2

10.5

11.2

11.7

11.5

1 1 .a_

12,6

12.5

3-73

9 .0

9 .3

9^6

9 .9

10. t

10.2

10 .A

11.1

11.4

11.3

11.5

1 1 ,9

11.7

9 .8

1 0 .1

11. L_ 11,4

11.3

11,6

10.3

10.6

l.2 * t * 9

.
.

1 .2 7 7 ,9

9 .6

1*308.9
1 ,3 4 4 .0

9 .4

9.7

10.7

10.2

10.5

1 1 ,*

8 .8

9 .1

9 .4

9 .6

10.2

9,8

9 .9

10.4

10,6

10,4

10,4

10,5

10,1

8 .8

8 ,5

7*8

**5 \

2-74

8 .7

9 .0

9 .3

9 .4

10.0

5,6

9 *L

10.1

10,3

10.1

10,0

10,1

9 .7

8 .6

8*3

7 ,7

6 .0

7 * * \ .

1 .1 8 3 .8

3-74

8 .7

9 .0

9*2

9 ,3

9 .9

1.9,5

9.6

10.0

10,1

9 .9

9 .8

9 .9

9 .5

8 .5

t.l

7.8

6 .8

7 .9

1 ,4 1 1 ,6P

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-71

3-71

*-71

1-74

o

9 .1

1-74

o
r*

4-71

11,8

11,2

1 ,3 5 8 .8

8 .1 1
2-74

IN IT IA L QUARTER
P- PRELIM IN A RY
GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CONSTANT 1958 DOLLARS
_____________________ _____________________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_______________________.___

0
1

B IL L IO N S Of
TERMINAL________ ____________ __________________ __________________________ IN IT IA L QUARTER
____ , ______ __________ , ___________ _________________
_
_
DOLLARS
QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
4-69
3-71 4-71
1-73 2-73
2-70
3-70
1-70
1-71 2-71
3-72 4-72
1-72 2-72
3-714-73
1-7* 2-7*........ .
.................
1-70

- 2 .1

2-70

-0 .8

0 .5

0
1
m

721,2

0 ,4

1.7

2 .9

4-70

- 0 .8

- 0 .4

- 0 .8

- 4 .3

1-71

1.3

2 .2

2.7

2 .7

"N
10.2

2 -7 !

1,6 _

2 .3

2 .8

2 .7

6 .4

2 ,9

3-71

1,7

2 ,4

2.8

2 ,8

5,2

2,8

2.8

4-71

2.3

3 .0

3.4

3 .5

5 ,5

4 .0

4 .6

6 ,5

1-72

2.8

3 .4

3.8

4 .0

5 ,7

4,6

5.2

6 .4

6.4

2-7 2

3.3

3 .9

4 .4

4 .6

6.1

5.4

6 ,0

7.1

7.4

3-72

3.5

4,1 .

4 .5

4 .8

6.1

5.5

6 ,0

4-72

3.9

4 .5

4 .9

5.2

.6,4

5.9 _ 6 ,4

1-73

4 .4

4 .9

5.3

5 ,6

722,1
727.2
,

1

719.3
716.9

6 . 7 ]L 6 ,3

__-.-J

7 * 2 .1

6,8

7 *7 .2
759.1
770.9
786.6

8 ,4

6 .8

6,9

7.2

6 .0

... 7 , 1_

7.3

7 ,*

... 7.1

8 ,3

7 .5

7,7

8 ,0

7,9

8 ,9

9 , iL _

7 9 0 .1 _
* 1 * .2

...

- J M - *

2-73

4.2

4 .7

5.1

5 .3

6 .3

5.8

6 ,2

6 .7

6*3

6 ,8

6.5

6 .6

5 ,8

3-73

4*0

4 .5

4 .8

5 .0

5.8

5 ,4

5.7

6.1.-

6,0

6 ,0

5 ,5

5 ,4

4 .4

1 ,9

1 ,6 ^ 0 , 9 ? 4

8 *0 .8

4-73

3.9

4 .3

4 .6

4 .8

5 .5 _ 5 ,1

5 ,4

5 .7

5,6

5 ,4

4 .9

4 .7

3.9

2.1

2 ,0

8 *5 .7

1-74

3.2

3 .6

3.8

3.9

4 .5

4 .2

4 .3

4,1

3 .8

3.2

2 ,7

1,6

- 0 ,3

- 1 ,1

- 2 .4

- 7 ,0

- 1 .2

- 2 .2

- 4 .4

- 1 ,6

- 2 .3

- 3 .9

- 2 .3

- 2 .9 ^

3-73

4-73

1-7*

2-7*

.......

4 ,1

8 3 7 .*

2 .2

2-74

3.0

3 .3 .

3,5

.3,5

3 .7

3 ,8

3,5

3 ,2

2 ,5

2.1

1,1

- 0 .5

3-74

2.7

2 .9

3.1

3.1

3.6

3.1

3.2

3.2

2.9

2 ,6

1,9

1.4

0 .5

-0 .9

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

i-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

4 .1 ‘

IN IT IA L

2-73

,

x

830.5

...- M I sJ_....
.
8 2 1 . IP

QUARTER

P- P R E L I M I N A R Y




'

~~

~

1 2

P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L
O C T O B E R 17, 1 9 7 4

RESERVE

B A N K O F ST. L O U I S

DEMAND
RATIO

SCALE

TRILLIONS

1

AND P R O D U C T I O N

QU AR TE RL Y

OF D O L L A R S

RATI O

TOTALS AT ANNUAL R A T E S

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

TRILLIONS

SCALE

OF D O L L A R S
1.4

.

3
1

1 .2

.

1 . 1

1.0

0 .

0 .

0 .

0.7

0 .

0.6

0.5

0 .

1966

1967

1968

1969

1970

IL&NP IN CURRENT DOLLARS.

1971

1972

SOURCEt U . S .

1973

1974

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

I2.GNP IN 1958 DOLLARS.
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS IN DIC ATE D.
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDi 3RD QUARTER PRELIMINARY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS

13

GENERAL
RATIO

PRICE

INDEX*

SCALE

RATIO

1958-100

19 6 6
■AS USED

19 6 7

19 6 8

IN N A TIO N A L

PER C E N TA G ES
LATES T

SCALE

1958-100

1969

1970

1971

INCOME ACCOUNTS

ARE ANNUAL R ATES

DATA PLO TTE D «

1972

S O U R C Ei

OF CHANCE FOR PE R IO D S

U .S .

1973
D EPA R TM EN T

1974
OF COMMERCE

I N D IC A T E D .

3RD QUARTER P R E L I M I N A R Y
P R EP A R E D

B Y FE D E R A L

R E S ER V E

BANK

OF

ST.

L O U IS

IMPLICIT P RICE D E F L A T O R FOR G R OSS N A T I O N A L P R O DUCT
C Q H P O U N O E O A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E
TERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL QUARTER
1-70

2-70

3-70

4- 70

1-70

5. 5

5r9

4 .3

4,1

5.3

5.0

5.2

5. 2

1 9 5 8 * 100
3-72

_W 2

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74

6.4

1-7 1

2-72

S ^ .9 %

4-70

1-7 2

4.6

3-70

4-7 J
.

6.i

2-70

3-71

1-71

132.91
134.41
135.77
137.88

4.9

5,1

5.5

4.7

IT T I

2-71

5.0

5.3

4.8

* >

139.47
141.13
142.03

3-71

4f8

4.5

4.5

4.6

4 .0

3.7

4-71

4.4

4.1

4.1

4.1

3.5

3.1

2.2

1.9 Nw A * 1 V L

142.70

1-72

4.5

4.3

4.3

4.3

3.y

3*7

3.3

3.7

5.5

144.62

2-72

4.3

4.0

4.0

4.0

3.Ó

3.3

3.0

3.1

3.7

1.9

3-72

4 . 2 .. 4 . 0
.

J .9

3.9

3.5

3.3

. .3 • û

3.1

3. 6

2.6

145.31
3. 3

146.50

4-72

4.2

4.0

3 .9

3.9

3.6

3.4

3.2

3.2...

3.7

3.1

3.7

4.0

1-73

4.3

4.1

4.1

4.1

3.8

3.7

3.5

3.7

4.0

3.7

4,3

4.8

5 .5

2-73

4.5

4.3

4,3

4,3

4.1

4.1

4.0

4

4.6

4.4

5,0

5.6

6 t4

147.96
149.95
7.3

152.61
155.67

3-73

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.7

A -5

4.3

4. 5

4.7

5.L. . 5 . 0

5.7

6.3

7.0

7.8

8.3

4-73

5.0

4, 9

'♦.9

5. 0

4.8

4. 9

4.9

5 « 1__

5.5

5.5

6.2

6.7

7,4

8.1

8.5

1-74

5.4

5. 3

5.4

5. 5

5.4

5.3

5.5

5,8

6.3_

6. 4 . 7 . 0

7.6

8.4

9.1

9.7

10,5

12.3

2-74

5.6

5.6

5.6

5.7

5.7

•>.3

5.8

6. 1

6.6

6.7

7.3

7.9

8.5

9.2

9,6

10.1

10.8

9.4

3-74

5 .9

5.9

6. 0

6.1

6.1

ò .2

6.3

6.6

7.0 . 7.2

7,8

8.3

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.4

11.0

10.4

>
11.5 \

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3- 7 1

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74

4-7 1

1-72

8.6 N .

158.93
163.61
167.31
171.92P

I NI T I A L Q U A R T E R
P- PRELIMINARY




P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E
O C T O B E R 17, 1 9 7 4

14

B A N K OF ST. L O U I S

P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E
TERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL
4-69

1-70

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2 -71

3-71

4-71

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

QUARTER

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74
604.6

7.0

614.0

2-70

6.7

6.4

3-70

6.6

6.4

6.5

4-70

5.7

5.3

4.7

3 .0

1-71

7. 5

7.6

8.0

8.8

14. 9

2-71

7. 5

7.5

7 .8

8.3

11. 0

7.3

3-71

7.3

7.3

7.5

7.8

S.4

6.8

6. 2

4-71

7.3

7.3

7.4

7.6

8.8

6.9

6.7

623.7
628.3
6 50.5
662.1
672.1
683.8

7.1

701.5

1 -72

7.6

7.7

7.9

8. 2

9.2

7, a

8.0

8.9

10.8

2-72

3.0

8. 1

8.3

8. 6

9.6

8.5

8.8

9.7

1 1.1

11.3

3-72

8.1

8.2

8.4

8.7

9.5

a .7

8.9

9.6

10.5

10.3

9.3

4-72

8. 4

8.5

8.7

9.0

9.8

9.1

9.4

10.0

10.7

10.7

10.4

11.5

1-73

8.8

8.9

9.2

9.5

1C.2

9.6

10. 0

10.6

11.3

1 1 .4

11.5

12. 6

13.6

2-7 3

8.6

9.0

9.2

9.4

10.1

9. 6

9.9

1 0.4

10. 9

11.0

1 0.9

11.4

11.3

9.2

3-73

8.8

9.0

9.2

9.4

10.0

9.D

9.8

1 0, 2

10. 7

10.6

10.5

10.8

10.5

9.0

8.9

720.6
736*8
- - .757*1.____
781.7
799.0
816.3
823.9

4-73

8. 5

8.6

ö

.a

8. 9

9.5

9.0

9.1

9.5

9.8

9,6

9.3

9.4

8.8

7.3

6.3

3.8

1-74

8. 5

8.6

8.7

8.9

9.4

d.9

9.1

9.4

9.6

9. 5

9.2

9.2

8.7

7. 5

7. 0

6 .0

8 .4

2-74

8.8

8.9

9.1

9.3

S. 7

9.3

9.5

9.8

10.1

10.0

9.8

9.9

9.6

8.8

8.8

8 .7

11.3

14.3

840.6
869.1

9.1

9. 2

9. 4

9.6

10. I

9.7

9.9

10 . 2

10.5

1 0.5

10.4

10. 5

10.4

9.8

10.0

10 . 2

12.5

14.6

4-69

3-74

14.9

1-7 0

2-70

3-70

4 — 70

1-71

2- 7 1

3-71

4-7 1

1 -72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74

8 9 9 .9P

INITIAL QUARTER
P- P R E L I M I N A R Y
P c k S J M A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S IN C O N S T A N T 1 9 5 8 D O L L A R S
_________________________________________________________________ C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R I T E S OF C H A N G E _________________
I N ITIAL

TERMINAL
QUARTER
4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-7 1

3-71

4-71

1 -72

_lr_7.0

2.3
2.5

2. 8

1.1

0.9

0. 0

1-71

3.0

3.3

3.5

3.9

3.0

3.3

3.4

3.6

6.9

3.1

3.3

3.4

3. 5

5.7

3.1

3.3

3. 5

3.7

3. 8

5.6

3 .d

4.2

3.7

4.0

4.2

4.4

5.9

4. ó

5.2

6.2

4. 2

4. 5

4. 7

4.9

6.3

5.4

6.0

6.9

7.7

1-74

2-74

7.1

2-72

4-73

5.2

_ 1-72

3-73

3.2

4-71

2-73

3. 1

3-7 1

1-73

11.0

2-71

4-72

2.9

4-70

3-72

2.7

3-70

2-72

..
...1*3.

2-70

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

QUARTER

8.4

474.3
477.5
480.9
-2_.

477.5
490.1
493.8
497.7
504.1
512.8
523.2

3-72

4.4

4.6

<♦.9

5. 1

6.3

5.3

6. 0

6.7

7.2

7.3

6.3

4-72

4.7

5,0

5.2

5.5

6.6

5.9

6. 4

7. 1

7.6

7.7

7.4

8.5

1-7 3

5.0

5.2

5.5

5. 7

6.7

6.2

6. 7

7.3

7.7

7 .8

7.6

8.3

8.1

531.2
542.2
552.9

2-73

4.7

4.9

5.1

5. 3

6.1

5. 6

5.9

6.3

6.5

6. 3

5.8

5.7

4.3

0.6

3-73

4. 4

4. 6

4,8

4.9

5.6

5.1

5. 4

5.6

5.7

5.5

4.9

4.6

3.3

0.9

1.2

4-73

3.7

3.8

3.9

4.0

4.6

4.0

4.1

4. 2

4.1

3.7

2.9

2.3

0.8

-1.6

-2.7

-6.4

1- 7 4

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.8

3.3

3.3

3. 3

3.1

2.6

1 .8

1.1

-0.4

-2.4

-3.4

-5.6

-4.7

2-74

3.1

3. 2

3.3

3. 3

3.7

3 .2

3.2

3.2

3.0

2.6

1.8

1.2

0. 1

-1.5

-2.0

-3.0

-1.3

2.2

3-74

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.7

3.2

3.2

3. 2

3.0

2 .6

2.0

1.4

0. 5

-0.7

-1.0

- 1 .6

0.1

2.6

3.0

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3- 7 1

4-71

1-7 2

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74

INITIAL

553.7
555.4
546.3
539.7
542.7
5 4 6 .7P

Q
( UARTER

P- P R E L I M I N A R Y




P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L
O C T O B E R 17, 1 9 7 4

15

RESERVE

B A N K OF ST. L O U I S

GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
___________COHPQUNOEO ANNUAL SA TES Of CHANGE____________
__T W

I N AL

IN IT IA L

qua
4-69
-1=70

1-70

2-70

>-70

4-70

1-71

¿>71

3 - 7 L 4-71-

1-T2

QUARTER
¿-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74

- 1 3 .2

133.1
7.1

3-70

135.4

9 .4

11.7

4 .3

3.0

U 9 .2

4-70

- 0 .4

1-71

5 .0

10.1

11.2

1 0 .S

¿9 .6

-IzJLL.

7.6

12.%

13.7

14.4

25.6

6 .3

10.0

10.6

10.3

15.9

4-71

8.0

11.4

12.1

12.2

17.0

13.1

9 .0

20.4

1— 2
7

9 .6

12.8

13.7

14.0

18.2

15.6

13.4

21.8

23.2

2-72

10.1

13.1

13.8

14.2

17*7

15.5

1^0

19.6

19.1

15.2

10.6

13.4

14.1

14.4

i7 »5

15.6

14.3

18.6

18.0

15.6

-*=7-2-... U - 3

B IL L IO N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

13.9

-5 .1
146.6
21.8
9 . to

154.0
-1 .3
160.8

14.6____ LfLiJL_ILJ.__l&ajg.,„ 15*1_ LSLiJL—ISLfl,
_

169.4
175.5
15.9

] A d ..l i t ?

l »tQ

-IS S »*

1-73

11.9

14.3

15.0

15.4

17 . 9

16.5

15.8

18.9

18.6

17.5

18.2

19.4

19.8

2-73

12.0

14.2

14.8

15.1

17.4

16.1

15.4

18.0

17.6

16.5

16.9

17.2

16.3

12.8

- i z U ____ 11.7

13.8

1 4 .3

14.5

16.5

15.2

14.5

16.7

16.2

15.0

15.0

14 .8

13.4

10.3

7 .8

199.0
205.1

4-73

13.0

15.0

15.5

15.8

17.8

16.8

16.3

18.4

16.2

17.5

17.8

18.2

18.0

17.4

19.8

1-7 4

10.5

12.1

12.5

12.5

14.0

1 2 .d

12.0

13.5

12.7

11.5

11.0

10.1

8 .5

5 .8

3 .5

1 .4 -2 2 .7

2-74

10.0

11.6

11.8

11.8

13.2

12.0

11.2

12.4

11.6

10.4

9 .9

9 .0

7 .4

5.1

3 .3

1.8 - 1 1 .0

3-74

8 .7

10.0

10.2

10.1

11.2

1 0 .J

9 .1

10.1

9 .2

7.8

7.1

6 .0

4 .3

1 .9

- 0 .2

- 2 .1 - 1 1 .6

- 5 .5 -1 2 .9

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

1-74

2-74

1-74

B IL L IO N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
2-74

33.1

224» 5

4-73

210.5
2 .5

_£LL-*_
204.6P

IN IT IA L QUARTER
P- PREL I M I N A R Y
G R O S S PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CONSTANT 1958 DOLLARS
_ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_______________________________
_

IN IT IA L QUARTER
QUARTER
4-69
1-70
2-70

- 7 .1

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4—71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

102.6

-16.7
-

103.5

3 .6

105.4

3-70

- 2 .5

5 .5

4-70

- 4 .9

- 0 .6

7.5

1-71

0 .4

5 .2

5.7

4 .8

24.7

2-71

2 .7

7.1

8 .0

8 .2

19.9

102.1

- 2 .7 - 1 1 .9

107.9
111.8

15.3

109.9

3-71

1.3

4 .7

4 .9

4 .3

10.3

3.7

- 6 .6

4-71

3.4

6 .6

7 .2

7 .1

12.4

8 .6

5 .4

1 9.1

1-72

4 .8 - 7 .9

8 .5

8 .7

13.3

10.7

9 .2

18.0

17 . 0

2-72

5 .6

8 .5

9 .1

9 .3

13.3

11.2

10.2

16.5

15.2

13*4

3-72

6.2

8 .8

9 .4

9 .6

13.1

11.2

10.5

1 5 .2_ 13.9

12*4

4-72

6 .8

9 .3

9 .8

10.1

13.2

11.7

11.1

15.0

14.0

13.0

12*9

14.3

1-73

7.1

9 .4

1 0.0

10.2

13.0

11.6

11.1

14.4

13.4

12.6

12.3*

1 2 .7

11.1

2-73

7 .0

9 .1

9 .6

9 .8

12.3

10.9

10.4

13.1

12.1

11.2

10.6

10.3

8 .4

3-73

6 .5

8 .3

8.7

8 .8

10.9

11. 2_ 10.1

9 .0

8.1,

7 .3

4-73

7.9

9 .8

10.3

10.5

12.6

11.6

11.2

13.4

12.7

12.1

11.9

12.0

1-74

5.2

6 .8

7 .0

6 .9

8 .6

7.3

6 .6

8 .0

6 .9

5 .7

4 .6

3 .5

9 .0

114.8
1 1 9 .4
-

123.2
126.6

11.5

130.9
134.4
136.3

5 .8
2 .1

- 1 .5

11.4

11 .5

14.4

32.9

145.8

1.5

- 0 .8

- 2 .9

- 3 .6 -3 0 .1

133.3

- 5 ,4 -2 0 .1

....

-8t 7

130.3

2-74

4 .4

5 .8

5 .9

5 .8

7.2

6 .0

5.2

6 .4

5.2

4 .0

2 .8

1.7

- 0 .3

- 2 .4

- 4 .4

3-74

2 .7

3 .9

4 .0

3 .7

4 .9

3 .6

2 .7

3 .6

2 .3

0 .9

- 0 .4

- 1 .8

- 3 .9

- 6 .2

- 8 .4 -10.1 -21.1 -1 6 .1 -2 2 .9

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

122.1P

2-74

IN IT IA L QUARTER
P- PRELIMINARY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. L O U IS
OCTOBER 17, 1974

16

G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S OF G O O D S AMD S E R V I C E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
________________ C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E
____ _________ ____________________________ ____________
B I L L I O N S OF
T E R M I N A L ______________ ________________ ___ ______ __________ ________
I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R _________ ______________________ _______ ______ ________________ D O L L A R S
QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
4-69
1-70
2-70
3-70
4-71
1-74
4 - 7 0 _ 1-1!
1-72 2-72
2-74
2-73
3-73
4-73
3-72
2-71
3-71
4-72
1-73
1-7 0

6.1

2-70

3.1

0.2

3-70

3.9

2.9

5.6

4-70

217,2
217.3
220®3

4.3

3.8

5.6

1-71

5 .2

4.9

6. 6

7. 0

8.5

¿ - l i ___

5.3

5 -1

6 .4

6,7

7,3

6,1

3-71

5.7

5.6

6.7

7. 0

7.5

7.0

4-71

6.4

6.4

7.5

7. 8

8.4

8. 4

9,6

i1*3

1-72

7. 4

7.5

8.6

9.1

9.8

10. 2

11,6

13 . 5

15.7

10.4

9.9

5.6

223.3
227.9
231.3
7, 8

235*7
242.1
251.1

2-72

7.1

7. 2

8.1

8.4

8. 9

9. 0

9, 7

3-72

6*6

6. 6

7.4

7.6

7.9

7.8

8.2

8.2

7.2

3. 2

2.1

4-7_2___

7.1

7.*

_ -tL
7.4-2— _ 8 f . . - 8 ^ 4

8 ,4

B,8

9*0

5,5

6,2

7.1

12.3

1— 73

7.3

7.4

8.1

3.3

8.6

8 .6

9. 0

9.2

8.8

7,1

8.1

11.2

10.1

2-73

7.2

7.3

7. 9

8, 2

8*4

8,4

8.7

8.8

8.4

7,0

7.7

9.6

8 ,3

6.5

4.4

253 . »
255.1
2 6 2 «6 ........
269.0
273.3

3-73

7.1

7.2

7.7

7.9

8.1

8,1

8,3

8. 4

8.0

7 .2

8.5

7,3

6.0

5,4

4-73

7 .6

7.7

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.7

8,9

9.0

8.8

7,8

8.4

9.7

9.1

8.7

9.8

14.4

1-74

8.0

8.1

8.6

8 «8

9.1

9.1

9, 4

9.6

9.4

8,6

9. 3

10.5

10.1

10.1

11.4

14.5

276.9
286.6
. 296.3

14,6

2-74

8.1

8.3

8.8

9.0

9. 3

9,6

9,7

9, 6

8,9

9,5

10,6

10.3

10.4

11.4

13.5

13.0

11.4

1~74

8.2

8.3

8.8

9.0

9.3

9,3

9.6

9,7

9,6

9,0

9.5

10.4

10.2

10,2

10.$

12.4

11.7

10.3

9.2

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74

304.4
311,2?

INITIAL QUARTER
P- P R E L I M I N A R Y
G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S CF G O O D S A N D S E R V I C E S IN C O N S T A N T 1 9 5 8 D O L L A R S
C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E
TERMINAL
QUARTER

B I L L I O N S OF
OOLLAKS
ANNUAL RATES

INITIAL QUARTER
4-69

1-70

2-70

_ 1-70
_
2-70

-7.5
-6.0

-6.0

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

W ?

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-7 3

2-73

3-73

4-73 • 1-74

2-74

-8.7

3-70

3-70

-6.2

-3.1

142.3
139.1
138.0

4-70

-4.7

-4.2

-1.9

-0.6

1-71

-3.9

-3.4

-1.5

-0.7

-0,9

137.8
137*5

2 -1 1 -

-3.3

*-2.7

-1.2

-0.5

-0.4

0,0

3-71

-2.0

-1.2

0 .3

1.2

1.8

3.2

6.6

4-71

-0.7

0.1

1.7

2. 7

3.5

5. 0

7,6

8.6

1-72

-0.2

0. 5

1.9

2.8

3, 5

4.6

6,2

6,0

3,4

2-72

-0.2

0.5

1.7

2.4

2.9

3,6

4.6

3.9

1.7

3-72

-0.7

-0.1

0.9

1.4

1.6

2.1

2,5

1.5

-0.7

-2,8

-5,4

4-72

-0,4

0.2

1.1

1.6

1.9

2.3

2,6

1.9

0.3

-0,7

-1«1

137.5
139.7
142.6
143,8
0,0

143.8
141.8
3.4

143.0
144.1

1-73
.

-0.1

0.4

1.3

1.7

2 .0

2.4

2, 7

2, 1

0 ,8

0.2

0.3'

3.3

3.1

2-73

-0.1

0.3

1.1

1.5

1.7

2. 0

2,3

1,7

0,6

0,1

0,1

2.0

1.3

-0,6

3-73

-0.2

0.3

1.0

1.4

1,5

1,8

2,0

1,4

0,4

-0.0

-0.1v . 1,3

0.7

-0.6

4-73

0.2

0.6

1.3

1.7

1.9

2•1

2. 3

1.9

1.1

0,8

0 ,9

2.2

1.9

1.5

2.5

5.7

1- 7 4

0.2

0.6

1.3

1.6

1.8

2,0

2.2

1,8

1.1

0,8

0 .9

2.0

1.7

1.3

2.0

3.2

143,9
143.7

-0.6

145*7
146.0

0.8

2-74

0.2

0.6

1.2

1.5

1,6

1, 8

2.0

1.6

0.9

0,6

0.7

1,6

1.3

0.9

1,3

2,0

0 .1

-0.5

3-74

0.1

0.5

1.0

1.3

1.4

1,6

1.7

1,3

0. 7

0.4

0.5

1, 3

1.0

0,6

0.8

1,2

-0.3

-0.8

-1.1

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1- 7 2

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74

145.8
145.4P

INITIAL QUARTER
P- P R E L I M I N A R Y




P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E
O C T O B E R 17» 1 9 7 4

B A N K O F ST. L O U I S

D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E
TERMINAL
QUARTER

INIT I A L
4-69

1-70

1-70

2-70

3- 70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

QUARTER

1-7 2

2-7 2

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

7.6

668.2

0
h1
<*
\

10. 3

13.0

0
1
m

9.5

10.5

8.0

0
1

7.8

7.9

5.4

2.8

1-71

8. 7

9.Ü

7. 7

7.6

12 . 7

-.. 2 - n

8.8

9,0

8.0

8.0

10.7

3- 7 1

8. 0

8.1

7.2

7.0

8. 4 .. 6, J
..

3,9

4-71

7.8

7. 8

6.9

6.7

7.7

6. 1

4.8

5. 7

1-72

7 .7

7.7

6.9

6.7

7.6

6.3

5.5

6.3

2-72

7.7

7. 7

7.1

6.9

7.7

o. l

6,2

6.9

7.5

8.1

3-72

7 .8

7.9

7.3

7.2

7. 9

7.1

6.7

7. 4

8.0

8. 6

9.0

689.0
702.4
707.2

4-72

8.5

8.6

8_.iL-

8. 2

9.1

9.2

8. 8

8.9

9,6

2-73

3.8

744.1
751.3
761.8
6.9

774.7
790.0
807.2

8.3

9,1

10,0

11.1

12.5

1 6.2

9,2

9.3

10. 2

11. ?

12.2

13 . 6

16.0

8.9

1-73

728,6

•38.1
869,5

15. 8

9.2

*¿.3

9.0

9.1

9.7

9.4

9.5

10.3

U.l

11.9

12.9

14. 3

13. 3

10 . 8

3-73

9.2

9.4

9.1

9,2

9.8

9. 5

9.6

10.3

11.0

11.6

12.4

13.2

12.2

10.5

10.1

4-73

9.4

9.5

9. 3

9,4

9.9

9. 7

9.8

10.4

11,0

11.6

12 . 2

12.9

12.1

10.9

10.9

11.6

1-74

9.1

9.2

9. 0

9.0

9 . 5 ... 9.3

9,3

9.9

10,3

10.8

11,2

11.5

10,6

9,3

8.8

8.2

2-74

9 .0

9.1

rt.8

5.9

9.3

9.1

9.1

9.6

10.0

10T3

10.6

10.8

10.0

8.8

8,1

7.7

5 .9

6.9

9.2

9.2

9.7

10.0

10.3

10.6

10.8

10.0

9.1

8.8

8.4

7 .4

8.6

10.4

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1 -72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-7 3

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74

9.1

9.1

3.9

9.C

4-69

3-74

9.4

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

892.1
913,9
939,4
4,9

950,6
966.5
990.8P

INITIAL QUARTER
P- P R E L I M I N A R Y
D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E IN C O N S T A N T 1 9 5 8 D O L L A R S
__________ C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S 0* C H A N G E ________________________________________________________ _
B I L L I O N S Of
TERMINAL____________________________________________________ ______________ IN IT IA L QUARTER________________________________________________________________ DOLLARS
QUARTFR
ANNUAL RATES
___________ 4 - 6 9
1-70
2-70
3-70
4-7Q
1-71
2-7 1
3-71
4-7 1
1-72
2-72
3-72
4-72
1-73
2-73
3-73
4-73
1-74
2-74
__________
1-7 0

2 . 3 _____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

524.2

2-70

5 .7

9.1_________________________________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________ 5 3 5 . 8

3-70

5.3

6.7

4 . 4 _________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

4-70

3.1

3.4

Q.6

541.6

- 3 . 1 ______________________ _______________ _______________________________________________________________ _______________________ 5 3 7 . 4

1-7 1

4 .2____ 4 x 1 ____ h u L ____ Z .fl . '

8 iß ._____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 4 8 , 8

2-71

4.3

4.7

3.6

3.3

6.6

3-71

3.8

4.1

3.1

2.7

4.7

2.8

1.1_______________________________________________________________________________________________________5 5 6 . 4

4-71

3 .8

4.0

3.2

?.9

4.5

3.1

2.4

4 . 5 __________________ ____________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 5 4 . 9

3 . 8 ______________________________________________________________________________________________ 5 6 1 . 6

1-T2

3./____ 3*9____ U 2 ____ 1 * 2 ____ 4

2-72

3,9____ 4xi____ 3 ^ ____ 3. 3

4.4

3.0

3.4

3-72

4 , 1 ____ 4* J ____ 2_*_Z____ 1 * 1 ____4 . 7

4.0

3.9___________ 1*8____ ^ 6 ____ ^

4-72

4 .6

4.6

4.7

5.7

»>.2

5.4

6.2

6. 9

8 .1

9.5

1-73

5.2____ L« 5 ____ 5.1

5.2

6.2

5.9

6.1

6.9

7.6

8.6

9,8___L U I ___Uk-4__________________ ____________________________________ *».«!.

2-73

5.0

4.9

5.8

5.4

5.5

6. 2

6,6

7. 3

7.8____ 8 * 4____6 ^ J____ h 0 _______________________________________________

^t-73

4 . 8 ____ ¡Ldi____ i jl L ____ 4 . 7

5.4

5.1

5. 2

5.7

Ò.Q____6 . 4

4-73

4 .0____ ftxi____ 4jl4____ ìLlÌ____ 5. 0

4.7

4.7

5. 1____ _______ 5 ^ ___ _Luf____ 5 ^ 0 ____ 1^8 ____L t Z ____ Lt i____ 0*7 _______________________________ 62g_.9 .
.

5.0

5.2

4.9

____ I * ! ____ Ix S t ____ h d _________________________________________________ _____________________________________ Sfefetl.
4. 1 ____ _______ 5jl 1Ì _________ ______________________________________________________________________* 1 2 j ±
_____________________________________ _________________________________ ? 8 U ?
13.1_______________________________________________________________ »Qg.ti ■

<?.?____6jl5____ i * 3____¿Ljl2____ ¿ x i --------------------------------------- + 2 1 « »

1-74

3.8

i.9

3.5

3. 5

4.0

3.6

3.5

3.Q

3,8

3.8

3 .6

3,2

1.4

-0.8

- 1 . 7 _ - 3 . 7 _ rJ_._d_______________________ 610.3,..
_
_

2-74

3.3

3. 4

3.0

2.9

3.4

3.Q

2.8

3.0

¿.9

2.9

2.6

2.1

0.4

-1.5

-2.4

3-74

3.1

3.1____ Z s 3 ____ 2 x 1 ____ ixl____ 2 . 7

2.5____ ¿x l ____ ¿xé____ _______ ¿ jl2 ____ U 2 ____ Q » £

- j, \
.

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

INITIAL

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

-6.1

- 4 . 4 _______________ 6 0 3 , 5

-* t l .

2-73

-3.9

-4.S

-2.7

-1.1

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74

----- 6 0 U 9 P

QUARTFR

P- P R F L I M I N * * Y




P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E
O C T O B E R 17* 1 9 7 4

1 8

B A N K OF ST. L O U I S

C C P P r P i T F P RÜF ITS A F T E R T A X E S *
C & M P C U N O U ) ANNUAL B A TES OF CHANGE
B ttU ô tè S W -

3 - 6 s>
4-69

OOLLARS

I NI T I A L Q U A R T E R

T F R M ls n

OUARTHR
4-6S

W O

2-70

3-70

4-Ì0

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71

1-72

2-72

3-72

4-72

1-73

2-73

3-73

ANNUAL Ä Ä T R T

4-73

1-74

-9.8

42.1

1-70

- 1J < 8 - l i . a
,

2-70

- 11.3 -1 2 .0 - 12,1

3-70
4-70

- 7 .6

- 6 .9

40.8

-4 .4

39.5
4.1

39.9

-1 2 .2 - 1 2 . a - 13.2 - 1 3 .7 -28.4

1-71

- 2 .2

- 0 .6

2-71

2.7

5.0

2.5

56*7

7.8

9.8

41.8

68.3

a .7

14.7

18.4

52.4

37.9

15. 9

19.0

41.0

29.1

20.9

IV .2

35.4

26.0

20.4

19.9

3-71

4 .9

7. 1

10.7

4-71

6.4

8.7

11.9

16.5

45.3
4T.5
49.7

1-72

8 .8

11.1

14.4

18.8

21.4

35.0

27.8

24.5

26.4

33.3

2-72

9 .7

11.8

14.8

18.7

21.0

32.1

25.8

23 .0

23.7

25.6

3-72

10.6

12.6

15.4

19.0

21.0

30.4

2 5 .0

22.5

22.9

24.0

19.6

20.8

4-72

12,4

14.4

17.2

20.6

22.6

31.1

26.5

24.7

25.5

27.0

24.9

28.3

36.3

53.4
55.7

18.4

58.4
63.1
71.5

t 1-73

15.5

17.7

20.6

24.1

26.3

34.5

30.8

29.8

31.3

33.8

33.9

39.5

49.9

6 4 .9

2-73

1 Ü .4

17.5

2C.1

23.3

25.2

32.4

28.9

27.8

28.8

30.4

29.8

32.9

37.1

37.5

14.7

3-73

14.0

15.8

19.0

20.7

22.3

28.3

24.9

23.5

23.9

24.5

23.1

24.0

24.8

21.2

4.0

-5.8

4-73

13.2

14.8

16.9

19.3

20.5

25.9

22.6

21 .2

21.2

21.4

19.7

20.0

19.8

16.0

3 .2

-2 .2

1.7

18.0

20.2

22.7

24.2

29.5

26.7

2*» •8

26.3

27.0

26.2

27.4

28.5

27.0

19.0

20.5

36.3

« 2 .7

15.5

17.1

19.0

21.3

22.6

27.4

24.7

23.6

23 .9

2 V .J

23.3

24.0

24.4

22.5

15.5

15.7

23.9

36.7

3-69

4-69

1-70

2-70

3-70

4-70

1-71

2-71

3-71

4-71 - 1-72 ' 2-72

3_T2

4-72

1-73

2-73 “ 3-73

1-74
2-74
3-74

74.0
72.9
73.2

4-73“

85.1
85.6

2 .4

"

1-74

-----

W A.
-

INIT I A L Q U A R T E R
* NATIONAL M C C M E BASIS
H.A. - not Available

PREPARED BV FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
OCTOBER IS. 197+

SOURCES OF DATA
National Income and Product Accounts Data
Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis
Historical Data Sources:




1970-73
1968-69
1966-67
1964-65
1929-63

Survey of Current Business, July 1974
Survey of Current Business, July 1972
Survey of Current Business, July 1970
Survey of Current Business, July 1968
The National Income and Product Accounts of the
United States, 1029-65, Statistical 'tables
(available from any U.S. Department of Commerce
Field Office or from the Superintendent of
Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402).

19

The Trend of Output
R a t i o Sc a le
Bi ll io n s of D o l l a r s

Ra t i o Scale
Bil lio ns of D o ll a r s

S h ad e d areas represent periods of business recessions a s defined b y the national B u r e a u of Economic R e s e a r c h
_1 The trend of output was determined from the regression lnQ=5.7292 +.0092t, which wcs estimated from quarterly
data for the 1/1947 - 11/1971 period. The coefficient (.0092) is the estima*e of the trend rate of increase of output
for the period. The line has been extrapolated beyond 11/1971.
2 Gross N atio n a l Product at 1958 prices.




20


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102