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November 1998

IcTrends

How Important Will
401(k) Plans Be to
Baby Boomers?
The benefits of a prosperous society are many and
varied. Among them are an ability to live longer and
an opportunity to retire earlier. Accordingly, with the
baby boomers slated to begin retiring in about a decade,
an increasing share o f the population will be drawing
health and retirement benefits for a longer period of
time than ever before.
The U.S. public retirement system, though, can gen­
erally only prosper as long as there is a sufficient num­
ber of workers to support each retiree. That was mostly
the case in the early years of the program, but it will no
longer be that way by 2030, when most of the boomers
will have retired. Thus, the pending exit of the baby
boom generation from the labor force threatens to be a
debilitating burden for the taxpayer. Importantly, this
future burden stems from the pay-as-you-go arrange­
ment that has been used to finance Social Security
and Medicare— what is essentially an intergenerational
transfer from the young to the old. According to the
75-year projections published in the 1998 Social
Security Trustees Report, the future funding gap
between expected program costs and annual earmarked
revenues for these two programs combined is expected
to be considerable— about 11 percent of future payroll
tax revenues using middle-of-the-road cost estimates.
One way to close this gap, of course, is by reduc­
ing future real benefits. Another way is by increasing
future economic growth, which boosts real tax rev­
enues. Some have estimated that this funding gap
could be closed with a permanent 2 percentage point
increase in productivity growth. Because a majority
of economists probably believe that the former is more
likely than the latter, workers should start saving more
today to finance a desired level o f future consumption

tomorrow— which is really what saving for retirement
is all about.
But by and large, the U.S. household saving rate
during the past two decades is nowhere near the aver­
age that prevailed during the 1950s, ’60s and ’70s. This
might be changing, though, given increased participa­
tion rates in defined contribution (DC) plans like
401(k)s. From 1984 to 1994 (the latest data avail­
able), the participation rate in 401(k) plans rose from
just under 9 percent of the private sector workforce
to around 25 percent; the participation rate for all DC
plans in 1994 was larger, at 37 percent. The question
for policy-makers is whether these plans can provide a
backstop that cushions any future reduction in Social
Security benefits. This is important because Social
Security income currently represents the largest share
o f all retirement income of those 65 and older, an
average o f about 40 percent in 1996.
A recent academic study, though, suggests that
income from financial assets will be much more
important for baby boom retirees than those today.1
For example, on average an individual who was 37
years old in 1996 and who saved about 9 percent of
that income (including the employer match) would
end up with a 401(k) account balance of a little less
than $182,000 by age 65 if all of his contributions
were invested in a portfolio o f stocks that earned the
long-run (1926-96) average return. This would be
well above the nearly $103,400 in Social Security
wealth that he will have accumulated at that point
(both figures are in 1992 dollars). Investing in less
risky assets, naturally, would produce smaller account
balances. For example, contributions to an account
portfolio o f corporate bonds would produce a 401(k)
balance of about $50,000, with a mixed portfolio
(50/50) producing something in between ($125,500).
— Kevin L. Kliesen
1See Poterba, Venti and Wise, “Implications of Rising Personal Retirement
Saving,” NBER Working Paper 6295 (November 1997).

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System



TabieofConîenîs
Page
3

Economy at a glance

4

Output and growth

7

Interest rates

8

Inflation and prices

10

Labor markets

12

Consumer spending

14

Investment spending

16

Government revenues, spending, and debt

18

International trade

20

Productivity and profits

22

Quick reference tables

27

Notes and sources

Conventions used in this publication:
1.

Charts and tables contain data that were current on November 2, 1998.

2.

Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.

3.

Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same
month or quarter in the previous year. The percent change at annual rate shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year
if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The percent change at annual rate of X between
the previous quarter t-1 and the current quarter i is:

For monthly data replace 4 with 12.
4.

All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA.

National Econom ic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing
Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Subscription form s can also
be filled out electronically at http://www.stls.frb.org/research/order/pubform .htm l. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573.

Information in this publication is also

included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred. The entire p u b ­
lication is also available electronically at http://www.stls.frb.org/publications/net.




National EconomicTrends
Real GDP Growth

Consumer Price Index

Percent change at annual rate
7 - ......................................................

0.5 - .....................................

1995

1996

Percent change

1997

1998

Industrial Production

Interest Rates
Percent

Percent change
1.8

-

8 - ........

..........................................................

1995

1996

1997

1998

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

1995

1996

1997

1998

Unemployment Rate

Thousands

Percent ot labor force
6.0 - ...........................................................

600 -

500

1995




1996

1997

1998

40 1 ........................... 1
........................... 1
........................... 1
..................
1995

1996

1997

1998

3

National Economicirends
Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent change from year ago

Industrial Production and Purchasing Managers’ (NAPM) Indexes
Percent change from year ago

73

74

75

76

77

78

Index

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours
Percent change from year ago
■ ■

12 -

73

74

75

76

77

78

Real Change in Business Inventories
Percent of GDP
v.................................................

2-




National Economicirends
Real Final Sales and GDP

Real GDP Revisions

Percent change at annual rate

Percent change at annual rate

8 -C

Preliminary
Annual Revision

Advance
Final

6—
4

2—

I

097:3

Industrial Production and NAPIK Index
Index
-

8

56

6

50

4
2

C
O
C
O

0

L_

62

— 44

1997

98:3

10

-

J n d u ^ ria ^ (Prockjction

68

-

....................................

1996

98:2

Pi

-

-

98:1

Nominal Gross Domestic Product

Percent change
1.8

97:4

1998

1996

1997

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours

Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours

Percent change
3 - ........................

1998

Hours
35.0 —

-2

33.5
1996

1997

1998

Real Change in Business Inventories




1998

Manufacturing and trade
1.46 - .....................................

- ...............................................................

1996

1997

Inventory-Sales Ratio

Billions of 1992 dollars
120

1996

1997

1998

1996

1997

1998

5

National Economic!rends

Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth
Percent change at annual rate
1 0 - ................................... - ...-......... - ...............— .... - .......-.........

- 4 ----96Q4

97Q1

97Q2

97Q3

t S â â Ë j Consumption

H

I

97Q4

Exports

98Q1

I

98Q3

I Government

il'. Ï- l\ Inventories

Imports

98Q2

"■<

Real GDP

Investment

Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate
1996
4th

!

1997
1st 2nd

!

3rd

1st

4th

2nd

3rd

Real G D P

4.23

4.21

3.95

4.20

2.95 !

5.55

1.83

3.28

Final S a le s

5.08

2.86

2.68

5.69

2.13 |

4.28

4.58

2.30

-0 .8 7

1.37

1.28

-1 .5 4

0.85 |

1.36

-2 .8 2

1.02

1.97 |

2.90

1.08

4.17

1.87 |

4.08

4.09

2.64

0.76 |
0.97 I
-0 .1 6 !

0.89
0.78
0.12

1.74
1.53
0.23

1.80
1.89
-0 .0 2

0.56 |
0.22 j
0.31 [

3.05
2.50
0.58

2.12
1.54
0.57

0.20
-0 .1 2
0.27

0 .0 0 |
-0 .4 3 |
0.43 |

-0 .1 8
0.55

0.38
0.23
0.15

0.25
-0 .0 8
0.33

0.02 |I
-0 .1 3 |
0.15 i

-0 .3 3
-0 .5 6
0.23

0.63
0.43
0.20

0.25
-0 .1 0
0.35

2.54 j
3.53 j
-0 .9 6 j

-1 .4 4
1.04
-2 .4 6

-0 .5 6
1.92
-2 .4 5

-0 .6 0
1.36
-1 .9 4

-0 .3 6 |
0.59 |
-0 .9 4

-2 .6 6

-2 .4 8

-0 .3 8
-2 .2 9

-1 .0 5
-1 .4 3

-0 .9 2
-0 .3 8
-0 .5 4

0.10

-0 .0 2

0.06

0.02 |

0.03

0.42

0.13

C h a n g e in In v e n to ry
C o n s u m p tio n
F ixed In v e s tm e n t

Nonresidential
Residential
G o v e rn m e n t

Federal
State and Local
N et E x p o rts

Exports
Imports
R e sidu al


6


-0 .2 4

I

0.37

National Economic!rends
Interest Rates
Percent

Treasury Yield Curve
Percent
7.5 - .......................................................................................................................................................... .............
7.0 - ........................................................................................................................................................................
6.5 - ........................................................................................................................................................................
Oct 97
6 .0 - ................................................................................--------------------------------------------------

5 .5 -

/ ' ' '

Standard and Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends
Percent change from year ago

75 "

^

73

74

....................................

75

76




77

78

f:

79

80

m

81

h

82

.................................................................... m

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

98

7

National EconomicTrends
GDP Chain Price Index
Percent change from year ago

Consumer Price Index
Percent change from year ago

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods
Percent change from year ago

Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour
Percent change from year ago

15 -

s-




8

National EconomicTrends
GDP Chain Price Index

Crude Oil Price

Percent change at annual rate

Dollars per barrel

4 .................. ...................... ...........

2 8 ------------ ---------

3-

1997

1996

1998

Consumption Chain Price Index

Consumer Price Index
Percent change

Percent change at annual rate

0.5 - ...................................

4 - .................................... .....................

3—

2-

1996

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods

1997

1998

Unit Labor Cost

Percent change

Percent change at annual rate

6 - ....................................-............

0.75 Excl.
Food & Energy

1996

Employment Cost Index

1997

Nontarm

1998

Compensation per Hour

Percent change from year ago

Percent change at annual rate

8 - ..................................................

6 - .......................- .........................

6




1996

1997

1998

9

National EconomicTrends
Employment
Percent change from year ago

6
4

2
0
-2
-4

Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates
Percent of population

Percent of labor force

15 - ......

..........................................................-

70

Labor Force/Population

12 -

9-

6 -„ x

0^

73

Duration of Unemployment
Percent of labor force

4.50 -

'

;




Weeks

................................... wm...........»KaK .................................................................... O T .........................................................................- 16

National Economic Trends
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Thousands
600 - .................................................

Thousands

500 —

1996

1997

1998

1996

1997

Change in Household Employment

Labor Force and Population

Thousands

1998

Percent change from year ago
2.5 - ..................................................

.......................
—650 -|..................................... |-.................................... I
1996
1997
1998

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Unemployment Rate

Help-Wanted Advertising

Percent
6.0 - ...........................................................

Index
Percent
95 - ................................................................................................................. - 8.0

yA

Help-wanted

Unemployment Rate

4 0 t .................................... r.....................................r......................

1996




1997

1998

u A

5 5 1 ................ i................ i.................i.................i.................i................ r 4 0
1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

11

National Economic!rends
Real Disposable Income
Percent change from year ago, quarterly data

Real Consumption
Percent change from year ago

Retail Sales
Percent change from year ago of quarterly average

Household Debt Outstanding
Percent change from year ago
18 -


12


Percent change from year ago

National EconomicTrends
Real Disposable Income

Personal Saving Rate
Percent

Percent change
1.2

-

8 - ........

.............

0.4 " I
“ - ..

00 "I
■0.4 ■

0.8

-

- 1-2 1 ...

1996

'

1997

'

1998

2_I

Real Consumption

1993

f 1994

1 1995

1 1996

f 1997

T 1998

Real Consumption

Percent change

Percent change

8 - ............................

1.6

-

1.2

-

0.8

—

.....................................................

l lI
■I
. .
li I . J . Li !
¡ I
0.0 -, I . !
0.4 —

■0.4 —

-2

■

1996

1997

0.8

1998

Retail Sales

Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales

Percent change

Percent change

Millions of vehicles, annual rate

2-

Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan)

Real Durables Consumption

Index

Percent change

120

—

•




20 - ....................

10 -

■10 -|................................ I................................. ].....................
1996

1997

1998

13

National EconomicTrends
Beai Investment
Percent of GDP

Real Private Fixed Investment
Percent change from year ago

Real Nonresidential and Producers Durable Equipment Investment
Percent change from year ago

Real Residential Investment
Percent change from year ago

- 4 ° "1

73

1

1
........ 1
......... 1
........ 1
......... 1
........ f ........I....

74

75


14


76

77

78

79

80

81

I

82

Ì .......1
.........1
.........1
.........1........ 1
........ 1
........ 1 f ......... I........ I.........I........ I.........I.........I........ I
......

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

1

98

National EconomicTrends
Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment
Percent of GDP

Percent of GDP

24

•—

10

22

-

8

-

6

-

4

-

2
0

—

_2

_

r ->

Real Private Flxed Investment

Nondefense Capital Goods Orders

Percent change at annual rate

Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft

21 - ...................... .............................

30 - ......................... ........................................................
Equipm ent Investment

-1 0

—

■20 -[.................I................. I................. I................. I..................y................. ]
1996

1997

1993

1998

Real Equipment Investment

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

Real Nonresidential Investment
Percent change at annual rate

Percent change at annual rate

25 - ......................................................

Real Residential Investment

Housing Starts

Percent change at annual rate

Millions, annual rate
1.8 - ................................................

-10

—

-15 1.3

-20 T
1996




1997

1998

1996

1

1997

1

1998

15

National EconomicTrends
Govt. Consumption and Investment

Government Receipts and Outlays

Billions of 1992 dollars
1400 mm

Percent of GDP
35 wm

m

wm
m

I I N

Total Outlays

• «*

1200
30 -

1000

-

25 -

800 -

600

20 Fed. Receipts

400

200 i ....f*.I
72

74

76

I.... f .. T ..f.... I.... I.... i
78

80

82

84

86

88

90

....y r
....

15 1 ........" ~ T ........1........ f .... I

t

92

94

96

98

72

74

76

78

80

82

I

.........I.........I........ T
84

86

88

90

T........T
........ T........I
92

94

96

98

Government Budgets
Billions of dollars

National Income Accounts

Unified Budget

Calendar Years

State and Local
Receipts

Fiscal Years

Federal

Surplus or
Expenditures Deficit)-)

Receipts

Fede
Surplus or
Expenditures
Deficit)-)

Receipts

Surplus or
Deficit)-)
Outlays

1975
1976
1977
1978
1979

2 2 5 .6

1 9 8 .0

2 7.6

2 9 7 .4

3 7 1 .3

-7 3 .9

2 7 9 .1

3 3 2 .3

-5 3 .2

2 5 3 .9

2 1 7 .9

3 6.0

343.1

4 0 0 .3

-5 7 .2

2 9 8 .1

3 7 1 .8

-7 3 .7

2 8 1 .9

2 3 7 .1

4 4.8

3 8 9 .6

4 3 5 .9

-4 6 .3

3 5 5 .6

4 0 9 .2

-5 3 .7

3 0 9 .3

2 5 6 .7

5 2.6

4 4 6 .5

4 7 8 .1

-3 1 .6

3 9 9 .6

4 5 8 .7

-5 9 .2

3 3 0 .6

2 7 8 .3

52.3

51 1.1

5 2 9 .5

-1 8 .4

4 6 3 .3

5 0 4 .0

-4 0 .7

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

3 6 1 .4

3 0 7 .0

5 4 .4

5 6 1 .5

6 2 2 .5

-6 1 .0

5 1 7 .1

5 9 0 .9

-7 3 .8

3 9 0 .8

3 3 5 .4

5 5 .4

6 4 9 .3

7 0 7 .1

-5 7 .8

5 9 9 .3

6 7 8 .2

-7 9 .0

4 0 9 .0

3 5 7 .7

51.3

6 4 6 .4

7 8 1 .0

-1 3 4 .6

6 1 7 .8

7 4 5 .8

-1 2 8 .0

4 4 3 .6

3 7 8 .8

64.8

671 .9

8 4 6 .3

-1 7 4 .4

6 0 0 .6

8 0 8 .4

-2 0 7 .8

4 9 2 .0

4 0 5 .1

86.9

7 4 6 .9

9 0 2 .9

-1 5 6 .0

6 6 6 .5

8 5 1 .9

-1 8 5 .4

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

5 2 8 .7

4 3 7 .8

90.9

81 1.3

9 7 4 .2

-1 6 2 .9

7 3 4 .1

9 4 6 .4

-2 1 2 .3

5 7 0 .6

4 7 5 .7

94.9

85 0 .1

1 0 2 7.6

-1 7 7 .5

7 6 9 .2

9 9 0 .5

- 2 2 1 .2

5 9 4 .9

51 1.1

83.8

9 3 7 .4

1 0 6 6.3

-1 2 8 .9

8 5 4 .4

1 0 0 4 .1

-1 4 9 .8

6 3 1 .4

5 4 5 .5

85.9

9 9 7 .2

1 1 1 8 .5

-1 2 1 .3

9 0 9 .3

1064.5

-1 5 5 .2

6 8 1 .0

5 8 5 .9

95.1

1 0 79.3

1 192 .7

-1 1 3 .4

9 9 1 .2

1 1 4 3 .7

-1 5 2 .5

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

7 2 8 .9

6 4 8 .8

80.1

1 1 29.8

12 8 4.5

-1 5 4 .7

1 0 3 2.0

1 2 5 3.2

- 2 2 1 .2

7 8 4 .2

7 0 8 .4

75.8

1 1 4 9 .0

1 3 4 5.0

-1 9 6 .0

1 0 5 5.0

13 2 4.4

-2 6 9 .4

8 4 4 .3

7 5 8 .0

8 6 .3

1 1 98.5

1479.4

-2 8 0 .9

1 0 9 1.3

1 3 8 1.7

-2 9 0 .4

8 9 4 .4

8 0 7 .0

8 7 .4

1 2 75.1

1 5 2 5.7

-2 5 0 .6

1 1 5 4 .4

14 0 9.4

-2 5 5 .0

9 4 9 .2

8 5 2 .3

96.9

1 3 74.8

1561.4

-1 8 6 .6

1 2 5 8.6

1461.7

-2 0 3 .1

1995
1996
1997

9 9 7 .7

8 8 6 .0

1 1 1.7

1 4 60.3

1 6 3 4.7

-1 7 4 .4

1 3 5 1.8

1515.7

-1 6 3 .9

1 0 4 5.2

9 2 2 .6

122 .6

1 5 84.7

16 9 5.0

- 1 10.3

1 4 5 3 .1

1560.5

-1 0 7 .5

1094.3

9 6 0 .1

134 .2

1719.9

17 4 1.0

- 21.1

1 5 7 9.3

1 6 0 1.2

-2 1 .9


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
16
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

National EconomicTrends
Federal Debt

Federal Defic

Percent of GDP
70

Percent of GDP

6

60
4
50
40

2

30

Change In Federal Debt

Federal Deficit, Unified Basis

Percent of GDP

Billions of dollars, fiscal years
500

250

0
2
-2 5 0
74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

Federal Government Debt
Billions of dollars, end of month or fiscal year,
excluding agency-issued debt

H e ld

Held by

Total
Public Debt
1994

4 6 9 2.8

1995

4 9 7 4.0

1996
1997
1995

Agencies
and Trusts Total

bv

P u b lic
Federal
Reserve Banks

P riv a t e
Total

H
I n v e se t lod r s b v
Foreign and
International

1 2 1 3 .1

3479.7

3 5 5 .2

3 1 2 7 .8

6 5 5 .8

13 2 0.8

3653.2

3 7 4 .1

3 2 7 9 .5

8 0 0 .4

5 2 2 4.8

1 4 4 7.0

3777.8

3 9 0 .9

3 3 8 6 .2

9 7 8 .1

5413.1

15 9 8.5

38 1 4.7

4 3 6 .5

3 3 8 8.9

1 2 1 8.2

4864.1

12 5 4.7

3609.5

3 6 9 .3

3 2 3 9 .2

6 8 1 .2

49 5 1.4

13 1 6.6

3634.8

3 8 9 .0

3 2 4 5 .0

7 3 6 .3

Sep tem ber

49 7 4.0

13 2 0.8

3653.2

3 7 4 .1

3 2 7 9 .5

8 0 0 .4

December
1996

M arch
June

49 8 8.7

13 0 4.5

3 6 8 4.2

3 9 1 .0

3 2 9 4.9

8 1 4 .2
8 8 8 .7

51 1 7 . 8

13 5 3.8

3764.0

3 8 1 .0

3 3 8 2 .8

5161.1

1 4 2 2.4

3738.6

3 9 1 .0

3 3 4 7 .3

9 1 2 .3

S ep tem ber

52 2 4.8

1 4 4 7.0

3 7 7 7.8

3 9 0 .9

3 3 8 6 .2

9 7 8 .1

December

5 3 2 3.2

1 49 7.2

3 8 2 6.0

4 1 0 .9

341 1 .2

1 0 8 7.6

M arch

5 3 8 0.9

1 5 0 6.8

3874.1

4 0 5 .6

3 4 5 1 .7

1 1 4 4 .2

June

1997

M arch
June

53 7 6.2

1571.6

38 0 4.6

4 2 6 .4

3 3 6 1.7

1 1 7 2 .9

S ep tem ber

1998

5413.1

1 59 8.5

3814.7

4 3 6 .5

3 3 8 8.9

1218.2

December

5 5 0 2.4

1 65 5.7

3846.7

4 5 1 .9

3 3 9 3 .4

1230.6

M arch

5 5 4 2.4

1 6 7 0.4

3872.0

4 0 0 .0

3 4 3 0.7

1 2 4 0.2

June

5547.9

1757.6

37 9 0.4

4 5 8 .4

33 3 0.6

1 2 4 7.4




17

National Economic Trends
Trade and Investment Income Balances
Billions of dollars, quarterly rate

-1 0

-20
-30

-40

-50

Exchange Rates

100 x (Deutsche mark/US$)
Yen/US$
450

Index, March 1973 = 100

160

375

140

300

120

225

100

80

Goods Export Shares, 1997

Goods Import Shares, 1997
All Other

All Other

36.58%

32.36%

Mexico
Mexico

Canada

22.34%

Other OECD
13.83%

Other OECD

Canada

9.60%

19.17%

2.35%

Japan
.65%


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
18
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Germany
3.60%

UK
5.36%

France
235%

Japan
13.87%

3.72%

National EconomicTrends
Trade Balance

Goods Trade

Billions of dollars

Percent change from year ago
20 - ................................................

1997

1996

1998

Current Account Balance

Services Trade

Billions of dollars

Percent change from year ago
20 - ...............................................

0

1996

1997

1998

Real GDPGrowth of MajorTrading Partners
Percent change at annual rate




United Kingdom

T

1996

1

1997

1

1998

1

19

National EconomicTrends
Output per Hour and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization
Percent change from year ago
15 - .... -

Percent
- 90
Utilization
(— ►
)

5

70

0

60
Nonfarm Output/Hr
<«----- )

Nonfarm Compensation per Hour
Percent change from year ago

10

Output per Hour and Multifactor Productivity, Manufacturing
Percent change, annual data
7.5

52

54

56

58


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
Federal20
Reserve Bank of St. Louis

60

62

64

66

68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

National EconomicTrends
Nonfarm Output per Hour
Percent change at annual rate

5 - ...................................................
4-

-1 -2 —■
' 3 “I
1996

1997

1998

Selected Component Shares of National Income
Percent

Percent
Corp. Profits

- 73

-

69

6
7
Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj)
Percent change from year ago

80 -




ffi« !

Nonfinancial

National Econom icirends
Final Sales

Real GDP

Nominal GDP

Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Change in
Business Inventories

Billions
of $

Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago

1993

6558.1

5 .0

6 3 8 9.5 6 3

2 .3

6 3 6 8.8 6 4

2.1

1994

6 9 4 7.0

5 .9

6 6 10.741

3 .5

655 1.2 4 7

2 .9

6 0 .55 2

1995
1996
1997

7 2 6 9 .6

4 .6

6 7 6 1.7 3 2

2 .3

673 1.6 9 6

2.8

2 7 .67 8

7 6 6 1 .6

5 .4

6 9 9 4.7 7 4

3.4

696 1.6 0 8

3.4

3 0 .02 4

81 1 0 .9

5 .9

7 2 6 9.7 7 9

3 .9

7 2 0 3.6 8 3

3.5

6 3 .21 0

1995

Billions
of 1992 $

Billions
of 1992 $

Billions of 1992 $
Last qtr Year/Year ago
22.10 2

1
2
3

7 1 7 0.8

4.3

5.5

6 7 1 7.4 5 8

1.7

3 .0

6 6 6 1.7 7 4

2.2

2 .9

5 4 .27 8

6 0 .85 7

7 2 1 0.9

2.3

4.3

6 7 2 4.2 0 2

0.4

1.9

670 0.0 1 0

2.3

2.7

2 1.668

47 .30 0

7 3 0 4 .8

5.3

4.6

6 7 7 9.5 2 8

3 .3

2.3

6761.6 9 8

3.7

2.8

14.70 5

38 .56 0

4

7 3 9 1.9

4 .9

4 .2

6 8 2 5 .8 0 0

2.8

2.1

6803.3 0 2

2.5

2 .7

2 0.061

27 .67 8

7 4 9 5.3

5 .7

4 .5

6 8 8 2.0 0 0

3 .3

2.4

6863.6 1 8

3.6

3.0

14.38 5

17.70 5

7 6 2 9.2

7 .3

5.8

6 9 8 3.9 0 9

6.1

3 .9

695 4.6 8 4

5.4

3.8

2 6 .06 4

18 .80 4

7 7 0 3 .4

3 .9

5.5

702 0.0 0 2

2.1

3 .5

6 9 7 0.2 7 8

0.9

3.1

4 7 .50 7

2 7 .00 4

4

1997

1

2
3

1996

7 8 1 8 .4

6.1

5.8

7 0 9 3.1 2 4

4 .2

3.9

7 0 5 7.8 5 2

5.1

3 .7

3 2 .14 2

30 .02 5
4 0 .50 6

7 9 5 5.0

7.2

6.1

7 16 6.6 8 4

4 .2

4.1

7 1 0 8.0 6 3

2 .9

3.6

5 6 .31 0

8 0 6 3 .4

5.6

5.7

7 2 3 6.4 9 7

4 .0

3.6

7 1 5 5.5 3 0

2.7

2 .9

7 9 .04 8

5 3 .75 2

8 1 7 0 .8

5 .4

6.1

7 3 1 1.2 4 2

4.2

4.1

7 2 5 6.2 6 5

5.8

4.1

5 0 .98 8

5 4 .62 2

4

8 2 5 4 .5

4 .2

5.6

7 36 4.6 3 2

3 .0

3.8

7 2 9 4.8 1 2

2.1

3 .4

6 6 .49 6

6 3 .2 1 1

1

8 3 8 4.2

6.4

5.4

746 4.6 6 8

5 .5

4.2

7 3 7 2.4 6 8

4.3

3 .7

9 1.401

71 .98 3

2
3

1998

1

2
3

8 4 4 0.6

2.7

4 .7

749 8.6 3 8

1.8

3.6

7 4 5 6 .4 2 4

4.6

4.2

3 8 .16 8

6 1 .76 3

8 5 2 6.5

4.1

4 .4

7 5 5 9 .4 5 9

3 .3

3.4

7 4 9 9.2 1 3

2 .3

3.3

57 .24 2

63.327

Consumption
Billions
of 1992 $
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

Durables Consumption

Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Private Fixed Investment

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago

Billions
of 1992 $

Nonresidential Investment

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago
7.6

4 3 4 3 .5 6 3

2 .9

5 23.841

7 .2

8 4 2 .7 7 2

7.6

6 0 0 .1 6 7

4485.981

3 .3

5 6 1 .1 8 9

7.1

9 1 5 .5 3 6

8.6

6 48.361

8.0

4 6 0 5 .5 7 0

2 .7

5 8 9 .0 9 4

5.0

9 6 5 .9 6 5

5 .5

7 1 0 .6 3 6

9.6

4 7 5 2.3 7 6

3.2

6 2 6 .1 2 0

6.3

1 0 5 0.5 8 3

8.8

7 7 6 .5 8 7

9.3

4 9 1 3 .5 3 0

3.4

6 6 8 .6 0 2

6.8

1 1 3 7 .9 5 1

8 .3

8 5 9 .3 6 4

1 0 .7

1

4 5 5 5.2 7 0

1.9

2.6

5 7 5 .1 8 5

- 1.0

4.5

9 5 7 .1 1 3

8.2

7 .8

6 9 8 .4 0 2

16.1

1 1 .5

2

4 5 9 3 .6 2 8

3.4

2.7

5 8 3 .5 2 0

5 .9

5.0

9 5 7 .8 2 6

0 .3

4 .9

7 1 0 .1 6 7

6.9

10.8

3

4 6 2 3.4 1 9

2.6

2.8

5 9 5 .3 2 3

8 .3

6.0

9 6 5 .8 3 2

3 .4

4.7

71 1 . 7 1 3

0 .9

9.0

4

1995

4 6 4 9 .9 6 2

2.3

2 .6

6 0 2 .3 5 7

4 .8

4.5

9 8 3 .0 9 1

7.3

4 .8

7 2 2 .2 7 3

6.1

7.3

4 6 9 2.0 7 6

3 .7

3 .0

6 1 0 .9 7 0

5 .8

6.2

101 1 . 3 6 5

1 2.0

5 .7

7 4 4 .7 7 7

13.1

6.6

4 7 4 6.5 5 3

4.7

3 .3

6 2 9 .5 0 5

1 2 .7

7.9

104 3.5 1 7

1 3 .3

8 .9

7 6 4 .4 0 3

1 1 .0

7.6

4 7 6 8.2 8 5

1.8

3.1

6 2 6 .4 8 6

-1 .9

5.2

1 0 6 7.0 6 7

9 .3

1 0 .5

7 9 0 .1 3 8

1 4 .2

1 1.0

4

1997

1

2
3

1996

4 8 0 2.5 5 0

2.9

3 .3

6 3 7 .5 0 7

7.2

5.8

1 0 8 0.3 8 5

5.1

9 .9

8 0 7 .0 3 6

8.8

1 1.7

4 8 5 3.3 9 8

4 .3

3 .4

6 5 6 .2 7 7

1 2 .3

7.4

109 6.0 4 6

5 .9

8 .4

8 2 0 .8 6 0

7 .0

4 8 7 2.6 8 3

1.6

2 .7

6 5 3 .7 6 6

-1 .5

3 .9

1 1 2 6 .9 9 1

1 1 .8

8.0

8 4 8 .1 8 4

1 4 .0

10.2
1 1.0

4 9 4 6.9 9 3

6.2

3 .7

6 7 9 .6 1 9

1 6 .8

8 .5

115 9.2 9 2

1 2.0

8.6

8 8 2 .1 8 1

1 7 .0

1 1.6

4 9 8 1.0 0 5

2.8

3 .7

6 8 4 .7 5 3

3.1

7.4

1 1 6 9.4 9 2

3 .6

8.2

8 8 6 .2 3 1

1.8

9 .8

1

5 0 5 5.0 6 2

6.1

4 .2

7 1 0 .2 5 9

1 5 .8

8.2

122 4.9 4 3

2 0 .4

1 1.8

9 3 1 .8 6 4

22.2

1 3 .5

2
3

1998

1

2
3
4

5 1 3 0.2 1 7

6.1

5 .3

7 29 .3 5 1

1 1 .2

1 1 .6

1 2 6 4.1 3 0

13.4

12.2

9 6 0 .3 7 7

12.8

1 3 .2

5179.251

3.9

4 .7

7 2 9 .4 0 0

0.0

7.3

1 2 6 7.8 2 8

1.2

9 .4

9 5 8 .0 7 3

- 1.0

8.6




22

National EconomicTrends
GDP Chain Price Index

Employment Cost Index

ECI: Wages

Percent chanae
Index

Percent chanae

Annual
rate

Annual

Year

rate

ago

Year
ago

Index

ECI: Benefits

Percent chanae

Percent chanae
Year
Annual

Annual
Index

Year

rate

ago

Index

rate

ago

1993

1 0 2 .6 4 3

2.6

1 1 8 .4

3 .6

115 .2

2.9

1 2 7 .0

5.4

1994

1 0 5 .0 8 8

2.4

1 2 2 .2

3 .2

118 .5

2 .9

13 2 .1

4.0

1995

1 0 7 .5 1 3

2.3

1 2 5 .7

2.8

1 2 1 .9

2.9

1 3 5 .0

2.2

1996

1 0 9 .5 4 1

1.9

1 2 9 .2

2.8

1 26 .0

3 .3

1 3 7 .4

1.8

1997

1 1 1.569

1.9

1 3 3 .2

3.1

1 3 0 .4

3.5

1 4 0 .2

2.0

1995

1 0 6 .7 3 5

2 .5

2.5

1 2 4 .4

2 .9

3 .0

12 0 .6

2.7

3.0

133 .9

1.2

2.7

1 0 7 .2 5 9

2.0

2 .4

12 5 .3

2 .9

2.9

1 2 1 .5

3.0

2 .9

1 3 4 .6

2.1

2.4

3

1 0 7 .7 5 8

1.9

2.2

126.1

2.6

2 .7

1 2 2 .4

3 .0

2 .9

1 3 5 .3

2.1

1.9

4

1996

1

2

1 0 8 .2 9 9

2.0

2.1

1 26 .9

2.6

2.8

123 .2

2.6

2.8

1 3 6 .0

2.1

1.9

1.6

1 0 8 .9 0 0

2.2

2.0

1 2 7 .7

2 .5

2.7

1 2 4 .4

4 .0

3 .2

136.1

0 .3

1 0 9 .2 7 7

1.4

1.9

1 28 .8

3 .5

2.8

125 .6

3 .9

3.4

1 3 7 .0

2 .7

1.8

3

1 0 9 .7 7 2

1.8

1.9

1 2 9 .7

2.8

2.9

126 .5

2 .9

3.3

1 3 7 .8

2 .4

1.8

4

1 10.21 4

1.6

1.8

1 3 0 .6

2.8

2.9

1 2 7 .4

2 .9

3.4

1 3 8 .6

2 .3

1.9

1

1 10.966

2.8

1.9

1 3 1 .4

2 .5

2.9

128 .5

3 .5

3.3

1 3 8 .8

0.6

2.0

2

1997

1

2

1 1 1.447

1.7

2.0

1 3 2 .6

3 .7

3 .0

1 2 9 .7

3 .8

3.3

1 3 9 .7

2 .6

2.0

3

1998

1 1 1.772

1.2

1.8

133 .7

3.4

3.1

13 1 .0

4.1

3.6

1 4 0 .4

2.0

1.9

4

1 1 2 .0 9 1

1.1

1.7

135.1

4.3

3 .4

1 3 2 .5

4.7

4.0

1 4 1 .7

3.8

2.2

1

1 1 2 .332

0 .9

1.2

1 3 6 .0

2 .7

3 .5

1 3 3 .6

3.4

4.0

142.1

1.1

2 .4

2

1 1 2 .57 1

0 .9

1.0

137 .2

3.6

3 .5

1 3 4 .9

3 .9

4.0

1 4 3 .2

3.1

2 .5

3

1 1 2 .80 1

0.8

0 .9

138 .7

4 .4

3 .7

1 3 6 .6

5.1

4.3

1 4 4 .2

2.8

2 .7

Exports

Imports

Percent chanae

Nonfarm Output per Hour

Percent chanae

Billions

Annual

Year

Billions

Annual

Year

of 1992 $

rate

ago

of 1992 $

rate

ago

Nonfarm Compensation/Hr

Percent chanae
Annual
Index

rate

ago

Percent chanae

Year

Annual
Index

Year

rate

ago

1993

6 5 8 .1 8 3

2 .9

7 2 8 .4 0 9

8 .9

100.1

0.1

1 0 2 .2

2.2

1994

7 1 2 .3 9 9

8.2

8 1 7 .0 2 6

12.2

100.6

0 .5

1 0 4 .2

2.0

1995

7 9 2 .5 7 5

1 1.3

8 8 9 .0 4 0

8.8

1 0 1 .2

0.6

1 0 6 .7

2.4

1996

8 6 0 .0 0 8

8.5

9 7 1 .2 4 8

9.2

1 0 3 .7

2.5

1 10.4

3.5

1997

9 6 9 .9 8 8

12.8

1 1 0 6 .1 2 4

1 3 .9

105.1

1 .4

1 1 4 .5

3.7

1 3 .0

8 7 3 .4 3 3

1 0 5 .5

1.9

1.5

1995

1

7 6 3 .8 8 5

9 .2

9.8

12.9

1 00.6

- 0.8

- 0.1

8 8 8 .7 0 5

7 .2

10.0

1 0 0 .9

1.2

0.1

1 0 6 .2

2 .7

2.2

8 9 3 .1 2 7

2.0

7.2

1 01 .3

1.6

1.0

1 0 7 .0

3 .0

2.8

1 0 .5

9 0 0 .9 0 0

3 .5

5 .6

1 02 .0

2.8

1.2

107 .9

3 .4

2.8

2

5.4

9.9

80 6 .2 9 1

1 7 .8

1 1.7

4
1996

7 7 4 .0 0 0

3

8 2 6 .1 19

10.2

8 3 3 .6 0 7

3 .7

9.1

9 2 9 .0 6 4

13.1

6.4

103 .0

4.0

2.4

1 0 8 .6

2.6

2 .9

8 4 5 .4 7 4

5.8

9.2

9 5 8 .9 3 9

1 3 .5

7.9

103 .8

3.1

2 .9

1 1 0 .0

5 .3

3.6

3

8 4 9 .8 9 3

2.1

5 .4

9 9 0 .0 1 2

13.6

10.8

103 .8

0.0

2 .5

1 1 1.0

3 .7

3 .7

4
1997

1

2

91 1 . 0 5 3

32.0

1 0 .3

1006.971

7 .0

11.8

104.1

1.2

2.1

1 1 2 .0

3 .7

3 .8

9 2 9 .4 1 0

8 .3

1 1.5

1 050.935

18.6

13.1

1 0 4 .2

0.4

1.2

1 13.1

4 .0

4.1

9 6 3 .5 9 4

1 5 .5

1 4 .0

1 095.206

1 7 .9

1 4 .2

1 0 4 .7

1.9

0.9

1 13.8

2 .5

3 .5

3

9 8 8 .1 0 9

10.6

1 6 .3

1130.521

13.5

14.2

1 0 5 .6

3.5

1.7

1 1 4 .9

3 .9

3 .5

4
1998

1

2

9 9 8 .8 3 8

4.4

9.6

1 147.840

6 .3

1 4 .0

1 0 5 .9

1.1

1.7

1 1 6 .3

5 .0

3 .8

1

9 9 1 .8 7 5

- 2.8

6.7

1 1 9 0 .4 0 6

1 5 .7

1 3 .3

1 0 6 .8

3.4

2.5

1 17.6

4.5

4.0

2

9 7 2 .1 3 0

-7 .7

0 .9

1 2 1 7 .2 9 8

9 .3

11.1

106 .8

0.0

2.0

1 18.8

4.1

4 .4

3

9 6 5 .0 1 9

-2 .9

-2 .3

1 2 2 7 .4 7 3

3.4

8.6




23

National Economic!rends
Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Household Survey Employment
Thousands

Change

Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Nonfarm Aggregate Hours

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
Thousands

Change

rate

ago

Percent chanae
Index

Monthly Annual
rate
rate

Year
ago

1993

1771

1.5

110692

2101

1.9

124.6

2.9

1 2 3 06 9

2810

2.3

114131

34 4 0

3.1

129.9

4.2

1995

1 2 4 90 3

1834

1.5

117187

30 5 5

2.7

133.4

2.7

1996

1 2 6 70 8

1805

1.4

119590

2403

2.4

12 9 55 7

2849

2.2

122677

3086

2.1
2.6

136.6

1997

141.4

3.5

1

12 5 6 5 6

449

1.4

0.6

118459

524

2

1996

1 2 0 25 9

1994

126323

667

2.1

1.3

119273

8 14

1.8
2.8

11 9974

701

12 0655

681

3

1997

12 7 06 7

744

2.4

4

12 7 78 7

7 20

2.3

1.8
2.1

1.7

134.5

0.2

1.0

1.2

136.2

1.3

5.3

2.5

2.4

2.0
2.2

137.3

2.7

2.3

138.4

0.8
0.8

3.1

2.3

3.3

3.2

1.0
0.8
0.6
1.0

3.9

3.9

1 2 8 69 7

910

2.9

2.4

121461

805

2.7

2.5

139.7

129387

690

122317

856

2.9

2.6

140.9

129723

3 36

678

2.2

2.5

141.7

130421

698

2.1
2.1

12 2995

4

2.2
1.0
2.2

2.4

3

1998

1

2

123934

939

3.1

2.7

143.1

1.9

3.4

3.4

2.3

3.2

4.1

3.4

124795

862

2.8

2.7

144.3

3.2

125516

720

2.3

2.6

144.6

0.8
0.2

3.2

1.5

0.8

2.6

-1 5

2.0
0.8
- 0.0

1.2

12 6098

582

1.9

2.5

145.0

0.3

1.3

2.4

12 7 33 8

343

3.3

1.9

120157

133

1.3

2.1

137.9

0.4

5.4

2.8

1

1 3 1 08 0

659

2

131348

268

3

131333

1996 Sep
Oct

12 7 71 5

377

3.6

1.9

120382

225

2.3

2.2

137.9

0.0

0.0

2.9

Nov

12 7 7 4 6

31

0.3

120683

301

3.0

2.3

138.3

0.3

3.5

3.0

Dec

12 7 89 9

153

1.4

2.0
2.2

120901

218

2.2

2.4

139.0

0.5

6.2

3.6

1997 Jan

128541

642

6.2

245

2.5

2.6

138.8

- 0.1

-1 .7

4.7

12 8 5 1 5

-2 6

- 0.2

2.6
2.2

121 14 6

Feb

121457

31 1

3.1

2.5

139.8

0.7

9.0

3.3

Mar

12 9 0 3 5

520

5.0

2.4

121779

322

3.2

2.5

140.6

0.6

7.1

3.7

Apr

12 9 27 5

240

2.3

2.6

122092

313

3.1

2.6

140.6

0.0

0.0

3.8

May

129494

219

2.1

2.5

122 32 5

233

2.3

2.5

141.2

0.4

5.2

3.7

Jun

12 9 39 2

-10 2

-0 .9

2.2

122 53 4

209

2.1

2.5

140.9

- 0.2

-2 .5

2.8

2.2
2.2

122811

277

2.7

2.6

141.3

0.3

3.5

3.4

12 2 89 4

83

0.8

2.4

141.7

0.3

3.5

3.2

1.9

123 28 0

386

3.8

2.6

142.1

0.3

3.4

3.0
3.4

Jul

129661

269

2.5

Aug

12 9 7 4 7

86

Sep

129761

14

0.8
0.1

Oct

12 9 9 1 0

149

1.4

1.7

123 56 8

288

2.8

2.6

142.6

0.4

4.3

Nov

13 0 5 7 5

665

6.3

2.2

123 94 4

376

3.7

2.7

143.2

0.4

5.2

3.5

Dec

13 0 7 7 7

202

1.9

2.3

124289

345

3.4

2.8

143.6

0.3

3.4

3.3

1998 Jan

13 1 0 8 3

306

2.8

351

3.4

2.9

144.6

0.7

8.7

4.2

13 1 1 6 3

80

0.7

2.0
2.1

124 64 0

Feb

124 83 2

192

1.9

144.4

- 0.1

- 1.6

3.3

Mar

130994

-16 9

-1 .5

1.5

1 2 4 91 4

82

0.8

2.8
2.6

143.8

-0 .4

-4 .9

2.3

2.6
2.6
2.6

144.0

0.1
0.6
- 0.1

1.7

2.4

7.8

2.6
2.8

Apr

13 1 3 8 3

389

3.6

1.6

1 2 5 23 4

320

3.1

May

13 1 4 5 3

70

1.5

125 56 2

328

3.2

Jun

13 1 20 9

-24 4

0.6
- 2.2

1.4

125751

189

1.8

144.9
144.8

- 0.8

Jul

13 1 0 6 7

-14 2

-1 .3

118

1.1

2.5

145.2

0.3

3.4

2.8

13 1 1 6 8

101

0.9

1.1
1.1

125869

Aug

1 2 6 17 8

309

3.0

2.7

145.3

0.1

0.8

2.5

Sep

13 1 76 5

597

5.6

1.5

1 2 6247

69

0.7

2.4

144.6

-0 .5

-5 .6

1.8


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
24
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

National EconomicTrends
Industrial Production

Retail Sales
Unempl.
Rate

Billions
of dollars

Percent chanae
Monthly/ Annual
Year
quarterly

rate

ago

Percent chanae
Monthly/ Annual
Year
Index

quarterly

rate

Treasury
Yields

ago

3 -m o

10—yr

1993

2072.434

6.5

1 0 3.5 54

3.6

3.00

5.86

6.1

2 2 2 7 .8 3 8

7.5

109.171

5.4

4.25

7.08

1995

5.6

2 3 3 1 .6 1 7

4.7

114.5 43

4.9

5.49

6.58

1996

5.4

2455.234

5.3

1 18.499

3.5

5.01

6.44

1997

1996

6.9

1994

5.0

2 5 6 8 .3 4 3

4.6

124.4 23

5.0

5.06

6.35

5.6

602.441

1.7

7.1

5.2

1 16.105

0.5

2.0

2.3

4.93

5.91

5.4

6 1 3 .4 3 6

1.8

7.5

5.7

1 18.228

1.8

7.5

3.8

5.02

6.72

3

5.3

61 4 .7 4 9

4.9

1 19.270

0.9

3.6

3.5

5.10

6.78

5.3

6 2 4 .6 0 8

0.2
1.6

0.9

4

1997

1
2

6.6

5.5

120.393

0.9

3.8

4.2

4.98

6 .3 4
6.56

5.3

639.631

2.4

10.0

6.2

121.9 40

1.3

5.2

5.0

5.06

4.9

6 3 3 .8 9 3

-0 .9

-3 .5

3.3

123.312

1.1

4.6

4.3

5 .0 5

6.70

3

4.9

64 6 .9 2 5

5.2

125.1 19

1.5

6.0

4.9

5 .0 5

6 .2 4

4.7

6 4 7 .8 9 4

2.1
0.1

8.5

4

1998

1

2

0.6

3.7

127.321

1.8

7.2

5.8

5.09

5 .9 0

1

4.7

6 6 0 .9 7 5

2.0

8.3

3.3

127.702

0.3

1.2

4.7

5.05

5.59

2

4.4

6 7 3 .7 0 2

1.9

7.9

6.3

128.245

0.4

1.7

4.0

4.98

5 .6 0

3

4.5

6 7 3 .3 3 5

- 0.1

- 0.2

4.1

128.235

- 0.0

- 0.0

2.5

4 .8 2

5 .2 0

1996 Oct

5.3

208.1 13

1.0

12.2

6.4

1 19.650

0.0

0.4

3.7

4.99

6 .5 3

Nov

5.4

2 0 7 .8 4 4

- 0.1

-1 .5

5.2

120.587

0.8

9.8

4.3

5 .0 3

6.20

Dec

5.3

208.651

0.4

4.8

4.9

120.943

0.3

3.6

4.7

4.91

6.30

1997 Jan

5.3

21 1.170

1.2

15.5

6.4

121.288

0.3

3.5

5.2

5.03

6 .5 8

Feb

5.3

2 1 3 .9 4 5

1.3

17.0

6.2

122.0 64

0.6

8.0

4.6

5.01

6.4 2

Mar

5.2

2 1 4 .5 1 6

0.3

3.3

5.9

122.468

0.3

4.0

5.3

5 .1 4

6.69
6.89

Apr

5.0

21 1.018

- 1.6

-17 .9

3.6

123.073

0.5

6.1

4.7

5.1 6

May

4.8

2 1 0 .5 3 2

- 0.2

-2 .7

2.4

123.316

2.4

4.3

5.05

6.71

Jun

5.0

2 1 2 .3 4 3

0.9

10.8

4.0

123.546

0.2
0.2

2.3

3.9

4.93

6.49

Jul

4.9

2 1 4 .9 3 5

1.2

15.7

5.2

124.527

0.8

10.0

4.7

5.05

6.22

Aug

4.9

216.391

0.7

8.4

5.9

125.2 46

0.6

7.2

5.0

5 .1 4

6.30

Sep

4.9

2 1 5 .5 9 9

-0 .4

-4 .3

4.6

125.585

0.3

3.3

5.0

4.95

6.21

Oct

4.8

215.1 13

- 0.2

-2 .7

3.4

126.550

0.8

9.6

5.8

4 .9 7

6.03

Nov

4.6

2 1 5 .9 1 4

0.4

4.6

3.9

127.528

0.8

9.7

5.8

5 .1 4

5.87

Dec

4.7

21 6 .8 6 7

0.4

5.4

3.9

127.8 84

0.3

3.4

5.7

5.16

5.81

1998 Jan

4.7

2 1 9 .0 0 4

1.0

12.5

3.7

127.813

- 0.1

-0 .7

5.4

5 .0 4

5 .5 4

Feb

4.6

220.866

0.9

10.7

3.2

127.327

-0 .4

-4 .5

4.3

5.09

5 .5 7

Mar

4.7

2 2 1 .1 0 5

0.1

1.3

3.1

127.966

0.5

6.2

4.5

5.03

5 .6 5

Apr

4.3

2 2 2 .7 0 7

0.7

9.0

5.5

128.4 07

0.3

4.2

4.3

4.95

5 .6 4

15.3

7.0

128.848

0.3

4.2

4.5

5.00

5 .6 5

1.4

6.3

127.481

- 1.1

- 12.0

3.2

4.98

5 .5 0

May

4.3

2 2 5 .3 7 0

Jun

4.5

2 2 5 .6 2 5

1.2
0.1

Jul

4.5

2 2 4 .1 5 3

-0 .7

-7 .6

4.3

127.022

-0 .4

-4 .2

2.0

4.96

5.46

Aug

4.5

2 2 4 .2 4 7

0.0

0.5

3.6

129.026

1.6

20.7

3.0

4.90

5 .3 4

Sep

4.6

2 2 4 .9 3 5

0.3

3.7

4.3

128.658

-0 .3

-3 .4

2.4

4.61

4.81

3.96

4 .5 3

Oct




25

NationalEconomicTrends
u ro u rn w nice inuu
Percent chanae
Monthly/ Annual
Year
Index

quarterly

rate

ago

1993

144.6
148.3

1995

152.5
157.0

1997

160.6

1

2
3
4

155.1
156.5
157.5
158.8

Index

152.4
156.7
161.4
165.8

2.6
2.8

1996

to date

2.9

3.7

0.6
0.8

3.3

Index

2.4

2.9
2.4
3.2

3

162.0
162.8
163.5

0.1
0 2 5. 0
.
0 .1 5. 8

0 . 50 . 5
1.6
1.4

1 7 2 .1 . 5 0 . 6
1.2
1 7 4 .2 0.5

1996 Sep

157.8

0.3

3.1

1 6 6 3. 7. 0

0 .3 .2
2

Oct

158.3
158.8
159.2

0.3
0.3
0.3

3 . 0 3 . 9 3.3
3 . 9 3.3
3.3 3 . 1 3 . 3

167.1
1 6 7 3. 4. 2
167.7

0.2
0.2

159.4
159.7
159.8

0.1
0.2
0.1

1.5
3.0 2.3
2 . 7 0 . 81 . 5

3.0
1.9
168.6

160.0
160.1
160.4

0.1
0.1
0.2

2 . 4 1 . 51 . 5
0 . 81 . 4
2.3

1 6 9 . 02 . 4
6 4
2 1. 2 9 . 0.1
2.3

160.6
160.9
161.3

0 .11. 5
0.2
0 3 2. 0
.

2 .1.5
2
2 . 31 . 6
2 . 12 . 8

1 7 0 .0 0.2
2 1. 7 0 . 1
2
170.4

2 . 12 . 4
0.1
0.2

161.6
161.8
161.9

0.2
0.1
0 .01 . 7

2.1

2 . 31 . 8
1 . 51 . 8
1.7
1.7

1 7 0 .8 0.2
11. 7 1 . 0
9
171.4

2 .2 . 2
9
1 . 4 0.1 2 . 2
0 2 2. 8
.
2.2

161.9
162.0
162.0

0.0
0.1
0.0

1.6

0 . 00 . 0
1 . 4 0 . 70 . 4
1 . 4 0 . 00 . 2

171.7
1 72.2
172.4

0.2
0.3

2 . 12 .2
3 . 26 . 3
0 .11 . 4
2.3

2.1
2.8

3 . 25 . 2
2.3
1 . 24 . 2

2.6

3
4
1998

1

2

Nov
Dec
1997 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
1998 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep

159.6
160.2
160.9
161.8

162.4
162.9
163.0

0.2
0.3
0.1

3.8

163.3
163.6
163.6

0.2
0 .2
0 .0

2.2
2.2
0.0




26

0.5
0.3
0.5
0.5

1.6

3 . 10 . 5
1.7
0 . 17 . 6

0.9
1.5
1.4
1 . 17 . 5
1 . 17 . 6

1.4

1 73.8
174.2
1.4

4.4

1.4
1.5

2.8

0 2 2. 1
.
0.2
1 7 4 . 5 2.1

1.9

2.6
0.4

0.9

3.8
3.7

0.3

1.2

0.9

0 .1 3 2 . 6
8
3.3

2 .2
2.5
2.8
3.0

2.9

2.6

0.4

- 3 . 3-

0 . -8 1 . 6
0.2
-0 .8
- 01 3 2 . 5- 0 . 7 - 0 . 1
.0

2.72 .8

1 2 .19. 8
3

0.4
2.92 .7
2.6 1 3 2 .3
3 . 00 . 2
2 .6 2.2
2.7
1 3 2 . 51.8
2 .26 . 2
0 .4
0 .2
21 . 36 3 . 0

1.5
168.3
0 2 2. 2
.

0.3
172.9
1 7 3 . 03 . 2
1 7 3 . 05. 1

1.2
0.6

2 . 42 . 3
130.5
1 3 20 . .56 0 . 1
2 . 20 . 7
2.4
2.4

2 .4
2
1 .7 73 . 2
2.2

ago

2 . 21. 3 2 . 7 0.1
2 2
0.2
2.1
2 . 5 1 3 1 . 7 2- . 04 . 8 - 3 . 0
2 . 21 3 1 . 4 - 0 . 2
- 0 -. 0.1
8
2 . 21 3 1 . 6 0 . 2
0- . 06 . 8

2.0 .5
5
168.3
0 . 17 . 8
2 1. 6 9 . 4
7
170.2
1.7 0 .4 2 .3
171.1
2.1 0 . 5 2 . 2

2.1

1

2

rate

124.7
125.5
127.9
1 3 1 . 23 . 7
131.8

2.9 2 .2
2.2
1.3
2.3
1.8 2 .2
1.9
1.9
1.9

1997

quarterly

0.7 6 4 . 2 2 . 6
2.9
3.2
1
1 2 29 . .69
1 6 5 . 32 . 5
0.6
2 . 52 . 5
1 23 .17. 1
0.7. 1
2 . 7 1 6 6 . 3 2 . 27 . 6
131.5
2.9
3
3.2
167 .4
0.6 2.6
2.6 2.6

3 . 22 . 8

0.8
0.9

to date

2.8
3.0
169.7

Percent chanae
Year
Monthly/ Annual

Year

3.3

2.3

-

Finished Goods

Percent chanae
Year
Monthly/ Annual
ago
quarterly
rate

Year

3.0

1994

1996

r r o a u c e r rrice ma e x

less Food and Energy

Consumer Price Index

1 62 8. 2. 0
0.2
2.4
2.6
2.5

4.6
4 .6

0 1. 23 3 . 0
2.2 0 .0
2.5 0 .0
3
2 1. 2 2 . 6 - 0 . 23 . 5
- 3 . 2 .2
5
2 .2
2 .2
132.4
-1 .0 5 . 2
-1 .8
0.8
1 3- 10 . .9 4 - 4 . 4
-1 .8
1 3- 10 . .7 2
0 1. 23 1 . 4 - 2 2. -. 710 . 2

2.7
2.5
1 62 9. 4 7
.

0.5
02 . 05

2 .02. 7
2 .22. 1

2 . 41 3 1 . 1
-0 .2
- 0 -. 2 . 7
1 3 1 . 32 . 3 0 . 2
1.8
-0 .2
0.0 4.7
1 3 1 . 82 . 2
0.4

2.1
2.2

2 . 21 3 1 . 8 0 . 0
0- . 00 . 4
131.6 - 0 . 2 - 1 . 8 - 0 . 7
131.4 - 0 . 2 - 1 . 8 - 1 . 2
1 30.6

-1 .8
- 0 -. 76 . 1
1 3 0 . 5 - 0 . -90 . 1 1 . 6
- 0 . 1 3 0 - . 04 . 9 - 1 . 5

130.6

0 .1 2. 9 - 1 . 0
- 0 . 80 . 1
130.7
1 3- 0 . . 4 2 - 2 . 7 - 0 . 8

2 .4
2.7
2.5

2.2
2 .82 .5
2 . 04 . 2 2 . 4

2 . 41 3 0 . 7 0 . 2
2 . 4 1 3- 00 . .2 4
1 3 00 .. 63

-0 .3
- 4 - . 05 . 8
3.7 - 0 . 9

2.8

0.

NationalEconomicTrends
Notes
Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change
in business inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP
growth rates are released during the first, second, and third months of
the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation of more com­
plete information. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a weighted
average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliv­
eries, inventories, and employment. The National Association of Pur­
chasing Management (NAPM) surveys over 300 firms in 20 manufac­
turing industries, weighting responses by industry share of GDP. Ag­
gregate and average weekly hours are paid hours of production and
nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal
(current-dollar) inventory and sales data.
Page 6: The contribution of a component X, to the overall GDP
growth rate in quarter t is 100 x [(1 + (X, - Xt.i)/GDP,.i)4- 1], The sign
is changed for imports. This calculation forces components to add up
to the GDP growth rate before compounding and does not exactly
match Survey o f Current Business, Table 8.2. The residual line is
calculated using the finest level of detail in the table.
Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity.
Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in
the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. Standard and
Poor’s 500 Index with Reinvested Dividends shows the total return:
capital gains plus dividends.
Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices for
West Texas intermediate crude (Wall Street Journal). Consumer price
index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index
is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures
component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers pri­
vate nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample
of jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the non­
farm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is
wages and salaries plus benefits.
Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of
about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It ex­
cludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households,
but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household
survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households pro­
vides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force
participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is
civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. New population controls
introduced in January 1997 affect levels and growth rates of household
survey employment, labor force and population. The unemployment
rate and other ratios are minimally affected. 90 percent confidence
intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and
change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncer­
tainty due to sample size. The household survey was changed in Janu­
ary 1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term compari­
sons around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on
page 10. Other changes in the survey are detailed in Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Employment and Earnings, Appendix A.
Pages 13: The Michigan consumer sentiment index shows changes
in a summary measure of consumers’ answers to five questions about
their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future
economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The
survey is based on a representative sample of U.S. households.
Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving, which
is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption (see
notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S.
investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a
statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross
domestic investment and saving.

and Product Accounts (NIPA). The unified federal budget deficit
differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NEPA excludes trans­
actions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government
investment and include consumption of government capital, while
unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NEPA accounts exclude
Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are
handled differently. Outlays and receipts are from the NIPAs, except
as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal year starts on October 1.
Excluded agency debt was 0.6 percent of federal debt at the end of
fiscal 1997. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings of the
Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings of the social security
and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local
governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays.
Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments
basis) is the difference between exports and imports of goods (mer­
chandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net ex­
ports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details.
The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned
assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in
concept to the difference between gross national product and gross
domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current ac­
count balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment
income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries.
Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and
compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey
the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %()
meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real
compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of infla­
tion. Multifactor productivity estimates changes in output that do not
correspond to changes in quantities of labor, capital, or intermediate
inputs. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of
changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and
proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to
current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital con­
sumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’
income by the difference between estimates of economic depreciation
and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national
income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest.

Sources
Bureau o f Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept, o f Commerce
National income and product accounts, international trade and in­
vestment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales
Census Bureau, U.S. Dept, o f Commerce
Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing
starts, exports and imports by country
Bureau o f Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept, o f Labor
All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and
producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensa­
tion per hour, total factor productivity
United States Department o f Treasury
Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit, debt
Federal Reserve Board
Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capac­
ity utilization, household debt
The Survey Research Center, The University o f Michigan
Consumer sentiment index
The Conference Board
Help-wanted advertising index
Organization fo r Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED)

Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current
expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption
(depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the National Income




27

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