Full text of National Economic Trends : November 1996

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NOVEMBER 1996

National
Economic
Trends
Wanted: “Half-Reasonable
Productivity Measures
Manufacturing productivity (output per hour) grew at
a brisk 3.4 percent annual rate from the fourth quarter
of 1992 to the second quarter of 1996. During the
same period, overall business sector productivity,
which includes manufacturing, grew at an annual rate
of only 0.3 percent. Thus, measured productivity
growth outside of manufacturing must have been nega­
tive, since manufacturing makes up about 18 percent
of total output. But measuring output can be a daunt­
ing task in many parts of the economy.
Zvi Griliches, in his presidential address to the
American Economic Association in 1994, identified
transportation and utilities, agriculture, mining and
manufacturing as sectors of the economy that can be
considered “reasonably measurable”— in a more skep­
tical moment he used the phrase “half reasonable.”
These sectors have very quantifiable output that can
be adjusted plausibly for improvements in quality.
But as the accompanying chart shows, gross output in
these sectors has declined from a 43.1 percent share
of gross domestic product (GDP) in 1959 to 29 per­
cent in 1994. So the portion of the economy that is
extraordinarily difficult to measure now accounts for
more than 70 percent. This includes construction;
wholesale and retail trade; finance, insurance and real
estate; and other services.
The services sector of the economy is the hardest
to measure. For instance, how does one measure output
in the entertainment industry? It is difficult to put a
finger on just what we buy when we consume, say, a
Broadway show or an arcade game, and even more
difficult to quantify an improvement in quality. Take
two movies like Waterworld and Sense and Sensibility.

Waterworld cost far more to produce. Does this mean
its production contributed more to real output, or
should each be counted as one movie? If Sense and
Sensibility did better at the box office, does this mean
it contributed more to the output of the motion picture
production industry? If so, how do we measure the
value added of the movie theatre industry? In many in­
dustries, there is no satisfactory way to resolve these
questions.
Even when there is physical output, estimating
“quantities” from current dollar expenditures can induce
error. In the construction industry, for example, it is
sometimes difficult to compare structures. Input price
or cost indexes are therefore used to deflate current
dollar amounts. This procedure biases the productivity
index toward no change.
There are no firm estimates on how much measure­
ment problems contribute to error in the productivity
index, but there are reasons to believe that they lead to
underestimation. Thus, productivity declines in sectors
where measurement is far less than “half reasonable”
should be met with skepticism.
— Donald S. Allen
Gross Product Originating in Measurable Sectors
P e rc e n t o f G D P
50

30-

I
I A g r ic u lt u r e
'----- '

M in in g

EKH| M a n u f a c t u r in g
uoa

■ ■ T r a n s p o r t a t io n a n d
p u b lic u tilitie s

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please
call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office
Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve
DigitizedEconomic
for FRASER
Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred.


Table of Contents
Page
3-4
5-6
7-8
9
10
11
12-13
14
15
16-17
18-21
22
23
24
25-27

Nominal and Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Price Deflators
Consumer and Producer Prices
Employment Costs
Productivity and Unit Labor Cost
Industrial Production
Employment and Unemployment
Real Personal Income
Retail Sales
Inventories and Final Sales
Components of Real GDP
U.S. International Transactions
Gross Saving and Investment
Corporate Profits and Cash Flow
Government Budget Data

How to Use the Triangles in This Publication
This publication makes extensive use of “triangles” to present compound annual rates of change over various periods.
Consider the simple, abbreviated triangle below for quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product from the third quarter of
1994 to the second quarter of 1996. From this triangle, the reader can obtain rates of change from any date on the
top row to any date along the left column; actual dollar figures for the periods in the left-most column are shown in
the right-most column. In our example, the compound annual rate of growth from IV/1994 to 1/1996 can be found at
the intersection of the IV/1994 column and the 1/1996 row, a 1.4 percent rate; similarly, the annual rate of change
from III/1994 to 11/1996 is 2.1 percent. Reading down the diagonal gives the growth rate from one quarter to the next.

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96
2-96




3-94
3.0
1.7
1.4
2.0
1.6
1.7
2.1

4-94
0.4
0.6
1.6
1.3
1.4
2.0

1-95

0.7
2.3
1.6
1.7
2.3

2-95

3.8
2.0
2.0
2.7

2

3-95

0.3
1.1
2.3

4-95

2.0
3.3

1-96

4.7

6693.854
6701.036
6713.524
6776.406
6780.715
6814.310
6892.553

Gross Domestic Product
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

1990
1991
1992
1993
Real GDP is chain-weight quantity index scaled to 1992 dollars.

1994

1996

1995

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96
2-96
3-96

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter

8.2
6.7
6.0
6.3
5.8
5.5
5.3
5.6
5.5
5.7

1-92
5.3
5.0
5.7

5.7
5.7
5.5
5.4
5,4
5.2
5.1
5.2
5.1

5.2
5.0
4.9
5.2
5.2
5.4
5.5
5.4
5.3
5.1
5.2
5.0
4.9
5.0
5.0

4-91

1-92

2-92

4.6
5.9
5.2
4.9
4.8
5.2
5.2
5.4
5.5
5.5
5.3
5.1
5.2
5.0
4.9
5.0

3-92

7.3
5.5
5.0
4.8
5.3
5.3
5.5

5.0

5.6
5.6
5.4
5.2
5.2
5.0
4.9
5.1
5.0

2-92

3-92

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




4-92

3.8
3.9
4.0
4.8
4.9
5.2
5.4
5.3
5.2
5.0
5.1
4.8
4.8
4.9

1-93

4.8

4.0
4.1
5.1
5.2
5.5
5.6
5.6
5.3
5.1
5.2
4.9
4.9
5.0
4.9

4-92

1-93

2-93

4.3
5.7
5.6
5.9
5.9
5.8
5.5
5.2
5.3
5.0
4.9
5.1
5.0
2-93

3-93

7.1
6.2
6.5
6.4
6.1
5.8
5.4
5.4
5.1
5.0
5.1

4-93

5.0

5.3
6.1
6.1
5.9
5.5
5.1
5.2
4.8
4.8
4.9
4.8

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96
6,121.8
6,201.2
6,271.7
6,383.0
6,442.6
6,506.2
6,574.4
6,688.6
6,776.0
6,890.5
6,993.1
7,083.2

6.9
6-5
6.1
5.5
5.0
5.2
4.8
4.7
4.9

5.3
4.5
4.1
4.5
4.1
4.1
4.4

4.8

6.1
5.7
5.0
4.6
4.8
4.4
4.4
4.6
4.5

1-94

2-94

3.1
4.5
3.8
3.9
4.4
4.3

6.0
4.1
4.1
4.7

4.4

3.8
3.5
4.3
3.8
3.9
4.3
42

3-94

4-94

1-95

7,149.8
7,204.9
7,309.8
7,350.6
7,426.8
7,545.1

4.5

2.3
3.2
4.3
4.2

4.8

6.5
5.2

3.8

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

4.2
5.4

7,616.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1, 1996

Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Trend is ten-year moving average of chain-weight (1992 dollar) growth rate. The fixed-weight trend
(not shown) differs only slightly.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-92

4,7

2-92

3.6

2.5

3-92

3,4

2.8

3.0

4-92

3.7

3.3

3.7

4.3

1-93

2.9

2.4

2.4

2.1

-0.1

1-93

2-93

3-93

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
2-96
6175.316
6214.219
6260.927
6327.306

6326.432

2-93

2.7

2.3

2.3

2.0

0.9

1.9

3-93

2.7

2.3

2.3

2.1

1.4

2.1

2.3

4-93

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.2

3.0

3.6

4.8

1-94

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.9

3.2

2.5

3.3

3.6

3.6
4.1

3.7

4.9

3.3

36

3.9

3.6

4.2

3.5

6356.530
6393.434
6469.055
6508.519

2-94

3.1

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.3
2.7

3*94
4-94

3.1

3.0

3.0

3,0

2.8

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.9

33

3.5

3.7

3.5

3.8

3.3

3.0

1-95

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.9

3.1

3.2

2.9

3.0

2.3

1.7

0.4

2-95

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.5

2.5

1.9

1.4

0.6

0.7

3-95

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.3

2.0

1.6

2.3

6587.574
6644.898
6693.854
6701.036
6713.524
3.8

6776.406

4-95

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

1.9

1.6

1.3

1.6

2.0

0.3

1-96

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.3

1.7

1.4

1.7

2.0

1.1

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.0
2.3

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.3 H

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-96

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.6

3-96

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.7

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




2-94

6780.715
2.0

6814.310

2.1

2.0

2.3

2.7

2.3

3.3

4.7

i

2.0

2.3

26

23

2.9

3.4

2.2

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

3-94

6892.553
6929.707

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1, 1996

GDP Chain Price Index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

GDP Chain Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

1992=100
3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96
99.137

1-92

3.4

2-92

3.1

2.8

3-92

2.5

2.1

4-92

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.8

1-93

2.9

2.7

2.7

3.3

3.8

2-93

2.7

2.6

2.6

3.0

3.0

2.2

3-93

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.6

2.0

1.8

4-93

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.1

2.0

2.3

1-94

2.5

2.6

2.3

2.4

2.5
2.4

2.6

2-94

2.6
2.5

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.3
2.2

2.6
2.3

3-94

2.5

2.4

2.4

23

2.2
2.2

2.2

2.3 : 2.4

99.813
100.174

15
100.876
101.832
102.386

102.833
103.415
2.9
2.4

104.149
104.632

1.9
2.4

105.248

4-94

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5
2.4

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.1
2.1

2.2

2.1

1-95

23

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.6

2.7

3.3

2-95

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.9

2.4

3-96

2.5

2.4

2.4

25

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.2

2.1

105.802
106.676
107.309
107.855

4-95

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.2

2.1

2.1

1-96

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.1

22.

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3 ■ ¡ ¡ I l 2.3
4-93 1-94 2-94

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.0

1.9

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

2-96

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

3-96

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.3

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




C

108.419
109.027
109.619

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1,1996

110.136

GDP Fixed-Weight Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

1992=100
3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96
99.1

1-92
2-92

3.3
3.1

2.9

3*92

2,6

2.2

99.8
1.6

100.2

4-92

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.8

1-93

2.8

2.7

2.7

3.2

100.9
3.6

101.8

2-93

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.9

3.0

2.4

3-93

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.2

2.0

4-93

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.2

2.2

2.4

1-94

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.7

102.4
102.9
103.5
3.1

104.3

2-94

2.6

2.5

25

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.5

2.5

1.9

3-94

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

24

2.4

2.6

2.3

2.7

4-94

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5
25

2.5

2.3

2.5

2.3

104.8
105.5
106.1

1-95

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.9

3.4

2-95

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.8

3.0

2.6

3-95

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.7

2,8

2.4

4-95

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

25

2.5

2.6

2.6

25

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.2

1-96

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.6

2-96

2.6

25

2.5

2.6

2.6

25

25

25

2.5

2.5

2.5

25

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.2

3-96

2.5

2.5

2.5 : 2J5

2.5

2.4

2.4 >: 2.5

2.5

24

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.3

2.2

m

2.2

2.0

1.8

4-91

1-92

4-92

1-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

2-92

3-92

2-93

3-93

107.0
107.7
2.2

Third quarter data are advance estimates.

108.3
108.9
109.6
110.2
110.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1, 1996

Personal Consumption Expenditure Chain Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

1-92

3.7

2-92

3.5

3.3

3*92
4-92

3,1

2.8

2.4

3.2

3.0

2.8

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

1992=100
3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

98.903
99.703
100.298
101.097

3.2

1-93

3.1

2.9

2-93

3.0

2.9

2.8 - 3.1
2.8
2.9

2,9
2.7

2.6

3-93

2.8

2.6

2.5

23
2.5

2.2
2.4

1-9
2.2

2.0

2.7

103.483

2.4

2.2

2.1

2 .5 ; 2.4

104.089

101.817
102.473
1.3

102.792

4-93

2.8

2.6

2.5

1-94

2.7

2.6

2-94

27

2.6

2.5 ?=•: sts
2.5
2.5

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.4

23

23

3-94

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.7

2.7

2.8

4-94

2.7

2.6

25

2.6
25

2.5
2.4

2.4

2.3

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.7

1.9

1*95

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

.. 24

2.5

zs

\ 23

25

2.4

2.4

26

25

2.6

23
2.4

2,6

2.5

2.6
27

27

2.7

2.4

2.4 1 2 3

24

2.4

2.4

22

2.3

2.1

1.5

2.3

2.3

22

2.4
23

2-95

2.7

2.6

2.5
2.5

3-95

2,6

2.5

2.4

4-95

2.5

2.4

2.4

24

1-96

2.5

2.4

2.4

2A

2-96

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.2
2.3

3-96

245 : 2.4

2*4

2A

2.9

2.3

2.3

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

4-91

1-92

Third quarter data are advance estimates.



2.4
3-93

104.675
3.4

105.549
106.054
106.739
107.457
107.846

23

2.3

23

2.1

2.1

1.9

1.5

2.3
2.4

23
2.4

2.3
2.4

2.1
2.3

2.1
2.3

2.3

2.1

2.4

2.8

3.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.0

22

2.4

2.4

1.6

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

1.6

108.279
109.763
110.206

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1, 1996

Consumer Price Index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent
8

6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consum er Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month

11-95
12-95

2-95
3.2
3.6
3.5
3.4
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.6
2.6

1-96
2-96

2.8
2.7

3-96
4-96
5-96
6-96
7-96
8-96
9-96

2.9
3.0
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.9

2.8

2.8

2.5
2.5
2,7
2.9
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.7

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

3*95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95
9-95
10-95

3-95

4-95

4.0
3.6
3.5
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.7

3,2
3.2
2.4
2.4
2.2
2.5

2.5
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.8
3.0
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.8

2.3
2.3
2.6
2.5
2.7
2.9
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.8




5-95

6-95

3.2
2.0
2.1
2.0
2.4
2.1
2.1

0.8
1.6
1.6
2.2
1.9
2.0
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.7
6-95

7-95

8-95

1982-84=100

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96
.

2-96 3-96 4-96 5-96
151.3
151.8
152.2
152.6

6-96

7-96

8-96

152.7
153.0
153.2

2.4
2.0
2.6

1.6
2.8
2.1
2.2

4.0
2.4
2.4

2,7
2.6

3.0
2.8

2,9
2.8
2.9

2.9
3.2
3.2
3.0
3.0
2.9
2.9

3,2
3.4
3.4
3.1
3.1
3.0

7-95

8-95

2,2
2.2
2.6
2.6
2.9
3.1
3.2
2.9

153.7
0.8
1.6

2.4

153.8

2.6
2.6
3.0
3.3
3.4
3.0
3.0
2.9

3.6
3.2
3,6
3.8
3.8
3.4
3.3
3.1

4.8
3.6
4.0
4.1
4.1
3.5
3.5
3.2
3.2

3.0
2.9
3.1
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

7

154.1
154.7
155.0

2.4
3.5
3.9
3.9
3.3
3.3
3.0
3.0

4.7
4.7
4.5
3.5
3.4
3.1
3.1

2.8

2.5

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

4.7
4.3
3.1
3.1
2.8

3.9
2.3
2.6
2.3

0.8
1.9
1.8

155.6
156.2
156.7
156.8
157.2
157.4

2*1

3.1
2.3
2.6

1.5
2.3

3.1

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

157.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1,1996

Producer Price Index -

Finished Goods

Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1990

1991

1992

1993

Percent

1994

1995

1996

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

Initial Month
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1982=100
1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

0,9

4-95

1.9

2.9

5-95

22

2.9

7-96

8-96

6-95

1.2

7-95
8-95

127.3
127.6
127.9

13

2.9
0.5

-1.9

0,9

0.9

0.3

-0.9

0.0

0.9

0.9

0.5

-0.3

0.5

0.9

9-95

1.4

1.4

0.7

1.6

' 2.4

3.8

10-95

1.4

1.5

M i
1.3

0.9

1.7

2.2

2.9

1.9

11-95
12-95

17

1.8

32

3.6

4.3

2.8
4.4

3.8

23

2.1
30

2,6

2.4

1.6
2.4

1.4

2.3

5.7

7.7

1-96

2,2

2.4

22

2.8

3.3

3.8

3.8

4.4

4.7

127.7
127.7
127.8
128.2
128.4
128.8
129.6
■1.9

2-96

2.0

2.1

2.3
2.0

1.9

2.4

27

3.0

2.8

3.1

2.8

0.5

-0.9

3-96
4-96

2,3

2.4

2.4

2,4

28

3.2

35

3.8

3.8

2.5

2.8

6,7

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.8

31

33
3.4

3.4

3.6

3.6

2.6

2.8

4.7

2.8

5-96

2.3

2.4

2.4

3.0

32

3.2

3.4

3.3

2.4

2,6

3.8

2.3

1.9

6-96

2.2

2.3

2.3

2-3 ' 2.7
2.2
2.6

2.8

3.0

2.9

3.1

2.9

2.2

2.2

3.0

1.9

1.4

7-96

2.1
2.2

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.6

26

2.7

2.6

1.9

2.4

1.4

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.7

22

2.3

2.3 . 2 2

2£

2,7

2.8

2.7

2.8

2,7

2-95

3-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

8-96

6-96

$

3-95

cvqa

5-96

4-95




5-95

2.4

2.1

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

129.8
129.7
130.4
130.7
130.9
0.9
0,5

131.0
0,0

131.0

2.1

2.6

1.9

1.6

1.5

1.8

3.7

2.2

2.7

2.0

1.8

1.8

2.2

3.2

2.8

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

131.4
131.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1, 1996

Employment Cost Index and Its Components
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Compensation Is the sum of wages, salaries and benefits for private industry workers.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Compensation
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

1-92

4.0

2-92

3.2

2.5

3-92

3,4

3.0

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

June 1989=100
3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

113.0
113.7
3.6

114.7

4-92

3.4

3.2

3.5

3.5

1-93

3.6

3.5

3.8

3.9

115.7
4.2

116.9

2-93

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.5

3-93

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.4

4-93

3.5

3.4

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.4

3.4

1*94

3.4

3.5
3.5

3.5

35
3.5

33
3.3

3.0

3.5

33
3.3

3.2

2-94

3.5
3.4

3.3

32

3.4

3-94

3.4

3.4

3.5
3.3

3.5
33

3.3
3.2

3.3

3.2
3.0

33
3.0

3.3

3.1

3.3
31

2.8

23

123.5

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

29

124.4
2.9

3.4

4-94

3.3

3.3

3.5
3.4

1-95

3.3

3.3

3.3

117.9
118.9
119.9
120.8
121.8
122.8

2-95

3.3

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.6 M
l
27
2.9

3-95

3.2
3.1

3.2
3.2

3.2
3.2

3.2
3.1

3.1
3.0

3.0
3.0

3.0

4-95

3.2
3.2

2.9

2.9
2.9

2.9
2.9

2.8
2.8

2.7
2.7

2.8
2.8

2.8
2.7

2.6

2.6

125.3
2.6

126.1
126.9

1-96

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.7 ] 2.7

2*7

2.9

2-96

3.2

3.1

3.2

31

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.9

29

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.2

3*96

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.5

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

Data are for the last month of quarter.




Q

127.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1,1996

128.8
129.6

Business Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector - Output Per Hour
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

4-91

\2

1-92

4.6

8.0

2-92

3.9

5,2

2.4

3-92

2.7

3.2

0.8

4-92

3.3

3.8

2.4 . 2.4

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96
87.4
99.9
99.7

-0.8
5.7

101.1

1-93

2.1

2.3

0.9

0.4

1.0

-3.5

16

1.6

0.4

-0.1

0.1

-2.6

-1.6

3-93

1.5

1.5

0.5

0.1

0.3

-1.4

-0.4

0.8

4-93

1.7

1.8

0.9

0.7

1.0

-0.2

0.9

2.2

3.6

1-94

1.3

1.4

0.6

0.3

0.5

-0.6

0.2

0.8

0.8

-2.0

2-94

1.3
1.4

13
1.4

0.5

0.3

0.5

-0.4

02

0.7

0.7

0.5

0.0

0.6

1.0

0.7
1.1

-0.8

07

1.3

0.7

0.5

0.7

0.9

1.0

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.0
-0.2

0.6

1-95

1.3
1.0

0.2

2-95

1.1

11

0.6

0.4

0.5

0.0

0.4

3-95

1.1

1.1

0.7

0.5

0.6

0.2

4-95

1.0

1.0

0.6

0.5

0.6

0.1

4-94

3-94
99.3

2-93

3-94

1992=100
2-94

100.2
■
*<v

100.0
Ü

-

i

:

100.9
100.4

¡ m p i i ¡ ¡ ¡ s ii

0.4

s

0.3

1.4

24

0.5

1*0
0.5

0.3
-0.2

11
0.3

t.4
0.3

-0.8

-2.0

0.7

0.7

0.2

0.6

0.7

0.1

0.0

£0

0.6

0.8

0.8

04

0.8

0.9

0.5

0.5

1.8

1.6

0.5

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.7

1.1
1.3
1

0.6

-0.4

1.1

0.8

1-95

2-95

^

101.1

1-96

1.1

1.1

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.3

0.6

0.8

0.8

0.8

0.9

0.3
0.6

2-96

1.1

1.1

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.3

0.6

0.8

0.8

OM

0.8

QS

0.7

03
0.6
07

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

10

100.6

0,4

0.3
05




99.8

^

'

101 2
100.7
101.2
101.6
101.5
2.0
1.6
3-95

4-95

102.0
ta
1-96

102.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1, 1996

Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted
1987 = 100

1987 = 100

1990
1991
1992
1993
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

1994

1995

1996

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of

St.

Louis

Industrial Production
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
2-95

3-95

3-95

1,7

4-95

-1.6

-4.8

5-95

-1 2

-2.7

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

Initial Month
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1987=100
1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

121.888
121.388
-0,5

121.339

6-95

-0.7

-1.5

0.2

0.9

7-95

-0.4

-0.9

0.4

0.8

0.7

8-95

1.6

1.6

3.3

4.5

6.4

12.3

S-95

1.6

1.5

2.9

3.7

4.6

6.7

10-95

0.5

0.4

1.3

1.6

1.8

2.2

-2.6

-6.3

11-95

1.0

0.9

1.7

2.1

2.3

2.7

-0.3

-1.1

121.434
121.507
122.690
1.3

122.821
122.159

12-95

1.1

1.0

1.8

21

2.3

2.6

0.3

-0.0

4.3
3.2

1-96

0.7

0,6

3.8

*0.3
2.4

1.2

2.0

15
3.4

-0.7

2.0

13
3 1

1.7

2-96

1.2
2.7

2.6

5.0

5.2

6.8

17.3

3-96

1,4

1.4

2,0

22

2.4

2.6

12

1.2

2.8

2,4

2.5

5.3

122.587

;

2.2
-0.4

122.809
-2.8

122.515
124.157
-5.5

123.576

4-96

2.0

2.0

2.6

2.9

3.1

3.3

2.2

2.4

3.9

3.8

4.2

6.7

1.8

9.6

5-96

2.5
2.9

3.0

3.6
4.1

3.8
4.4

3.1

4.6

4.6

5.1

3.9

5.2

5.4

5.9

5.5

9.1
9.4

8.6

3.6

7.2
7.7

4.0

3.5

3.3
3.8

2.9

6-96

2.4
2.9

9.3

10.0

7-96

2.7

2,8

3.3

3.6

3.8

4.0

3.3

3.5

4.7

4.7

5.1

6.4

4.4

7.0

6.2

5.0

0.2

124.519
125.380
126.377
126.399

8-96

2.8

2.9

3.4

3.6

3.8

4.1

3.4

3.6

4.6

4.7

5.0

6.1

4.4

6.5

5.7

4.8

2.3

4.4

9-96

2.8

2.8

3.3

3.6

3.7

4.0

3.3

3.6

4.4

4.5

4.7

5.7

4.1

5.8

5.1

4.2

2.4

3.5

2.7

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96




11

126.849
127.129

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1, 1996

Civilian Employment and Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Millions of Persons

Break in series. January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly
comparable with previous data.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

3.95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95
9-95
10-95
11-95
12-95
1-96
2-96
3*96
4-96
5-96
6-96
7-96
8-96
9-96

Thousands
Initial Month

2-95
2.2
0.4
-0,9
-0.8
-0.1
-0.0
0.2
0.4
02
0.1
0.3
0.6
0.9
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.1
1.2

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

of Persons

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

.
-1.3
-2.4
-1.7
-0.7
-0.5
-0.1
0.2
-0.1
-0.1

-3.5
-1.9
-0.5
-0.3
0.1
0.4

-0.3

0.1
0.0

1.1
0.8
1.1
1.2
0.7
0.5

0.1
0.5

0.3
0.7

0.8
1.1

0.8
0.7

1,0
0.9
1.1
1.1

1.5
1.3

1.3

0.9
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.2

1.3

1.5
1.5
1.6
1.6
1.7

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

1.2
1.2




125,106
124,973
124,598
124,566
124,832
124,859
125,036
125,244

2.6
1.4
1.5
1.6
1.0
0.7

0.3
1.0
1.3
0.6
0.3

1.7
1.9
0.7
0.3
0.7
1.3

0.9
1.3
1.7
1.5
1.7
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.8

0.6
11

1.6
1.6
1.6
1.6
1.7

1.8
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9

6-95

7-95

8-95

1.6
1.4

2.0
0.1
-0.2

-1.7
-1.3

0.5
1.2

-0.1
1.0
1.7
1.4

1.8
1.5
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.9

1.7
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.9

125,062
124,981

-0.8
0.8
1.9
2,6
2.0
2.3
2.1
2.2
2.1
2.2

2.4
33
3.8
2.7
2.9
2.6

4.3
4.5
2.8
3.0
2.7

125,226
125,663
4.8
21

2.6
2.3
,2.6..... 2.7 I I I Ü !
2.5
2.5
2.2
2.6
2.6

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

-0.5
1.5
1.5
1.8
1.7
19

3.5
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.4

1.4
2.0
1.9
2.2

2.6
2.1
2.4

1.6
2.3

3.0

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

126,151
126,095
126,462
126,610
126,884
127,055
127,368

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1,1996

Payroll Employment
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions

Millions

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
2-95
3*95
4-95

2.1

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

Initial Month
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

Thousands
1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96
116,701

1.7

116,861

5-95

1.4

1.1

116,907

6-95

1.5

1.4

1.2

2.0

7*95

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.5

1.0

19

0.5

117,100
117,201
117,499

8-95

1.7

1.6

1.6

2.0

2.1

3.1

9-95

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.8

1.8

2.2

1.3

10-95

1.6

1.5

1.5

17

1.7

1.9

13

1.3

11*95
12-95

1.6
17

1.5
1.6

1.5
1.6

1.7

1.6

1.8

1.4

1.4

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.6

1.8

1*9$

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.5

12

1.1

2-96

1.8

1.8

1A y 1 3
1.8
1.9

3-96

1.8

1.8

1.8

4-96

1.8

1.8

1.8

117,623
117,749
1.5
2.0

117,899
118,136

2.4
0.9

118,070

-0.7

1.9

2.0

1.8

2.0

1.1
21

2.3

2.3

5.3

2.0

1.8
1.8

2.1
2.0

2.1

2.0

1,9
1.9

22

1.9

1.9
1.9

2.1

2.0

3.5
2.9

1.7
1.7

1.8

2.1
2.1

2.2
2.2

2.1
2.1

2.2
2.2

2.3
2.3

2.4
2.4

2.4
2.4

3.2
3.0

2.6
2.4

3.0
2.7

4.2
3.1

2.1

1,9

118,579
118,750
118,922

5*96
6-96

1.9
1.9

1.9
1.9

2.0
2.0

2.1
2.1

7-96

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.4

2.9

2.4

2.6

2.9

22

2.4

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.2

22

2.2

2.3
2.3

2.4

8-96

2.4

2.4

2.9

2.5

2.6

2.8

2.4

2.5

2.6

9-96

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.4

2.0

2.1

2.2

1.7

1.5

1.1

-0.4

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

Revised from March 1996.



13

119,332
119,537
119,772
120,029
119,989

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1, 1996

Real Personal Income
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Real incomes are expressed in chained 1992 dollars.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared

by

Federal Reserve Bank

of St.

Louis

Real Disposable Personal Income
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
2-95
3*95

1.3

4-95

-3.0

-7.0

5-95

0,8

0.5

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
4,877.1

8.7

4,911.3

6-95

1.9

2.1

7.1

5.4

2.5

2.8

63

5.1

4.8

8-95

2.0

2.1

4.6

3.2

2.1

-0 5

4,933.0
4,952,4
4,950.3
IlM

illllS

9-95

2.6

2.8

49

4.0

3.5

2.9

6.4

10-95

2.8

3.0

4.8

4.0

3.7

3.3

5.2

4.1

11-95

3.0

3.2

4.7

4.1

3.8

3.3

3.5

4.9

4.4

4.2

3.6
4.1

5.0

12-95

5.3

4.3
4.9

4.5
53

6.1

1-96

2.7

2,8

4.0

3,4

2-96

29

3.1

42

37

3.4

3.2

3.9

3.4

32

2.8

1.1

54

3-96

2.1

2.8

38

3.3

3.0

2.8

as

2.8

2.0

07

2.6

0.8

25
0.3

-0.5
2.1

-2.1
1o

-1.8

2A
3.3

3.1

2.6

37

1.7

1.8

2.5

20

1.6

1.3

1.5

5-36

26

2.7

3.5

3.1

2,9

2.7

30

3.0

3.7

3.1

3.9

3.6

3.4

3.3

2.7 - -2-8
2.9
3.0

2.5
3.7

3*2

M
3.2

2.9
3.1

3.0

3.1

3.7

2-95

3-95

4-95




3.3

5,010.8
5,035.6

6-95

3.4

8-95

5,045.2
-0.1

5,044.7

-5.3 -10.1
1.4

16.2

33

4.5

12.7

9.2

2.3

7.7
7.2

3.7
4.3

1.9

5.5

6.7 . 4,5

2.9

5.3

5.0

6-96

7-96

8-96

2.4
2 **

3.2

2.8

3,4

3.2

0,7

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

3.1

3.0

2.8

14

5,000.0

2.2
2.9
3.4

3.0
7-95

«.

0
3.4

&3
5-95

4,975.8
4,992.4

5,023.1

4-96

8-96
CLM

3-96

4,906.9

7-95

6-96

I

3-95

Billions of Chained
Initial Month
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95 1-96 2-96

4-96

5,063,1

5-96

5,100.5
5,093.6

-1.6

5,116.5
5,137.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1, 1996

Retail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data (1982 - 84=100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Retail Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Billions of
2-95

3-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

Initial Month
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1982-84
1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

6.7

Dollars
127.280

4-95

0.6

-5 1

5-95

3,8

2.4

6-95

4.6

3.9

8.7

7.0

128.510

7*95

2.9

2.0

4.4

%M\ -3.7

128.104

126.727
10.5

127.788

8-95

3.5

2.9

5.0

3.2

1.4

6.8

9-95

2.2

1.5

2.8

1.0

-0.9

0.5

10-95

1.2

0.5

1.5

-0.3

-2.0

-1.4

-5.3

-5.2

11*95

2Z

1.7

2.7

1.4

-0 4

2.2

10.2

12-95

2.5

2.0

2.9

19

0.3
1.1

1.4
2.1

0.9

31

7.5

5.0

1-96

1.4

2.1

32

3.8

1.2
57

0.2

43

1.0
4.2

3.4

3.4

11
3.6

0.3

2-96

1*8
37

3-96

3.4

3.1

3.9

29

3.7

as

2.6

2.1

4-96

2.7

2.4

3 1

3.3
2.4

5-96

2.9

6-96

2.2

2.7
1.9

3.3
2.4

2.7 1 2*3
1.4
1.8

7-96

2.0

1-7

2.2
18

8-96

1.7

1.4

9-96

t ,0

1.0

2-95

3-95

4-95

1.2
5-95

2.0

3.0
•• '
1.9

128.811
-5.4

128.219

8.6

6.9
4.8 mmÆmé
4.7
3.2

128.683
129.204
*4.4

8.1

97

26.0

6.1

6.5

12.4

0.3

131.221
131.252

37

3.3

6.0

-2.7

-5.6

4.0

3.8

6.0

0.1

-0.0

2.2

3.2

2.2

1.8

3.0

-2.0

-2.8

-1.3

-8.1

1.9

2.7

1.8

14

2.4

-1.8

-2.3

-4.6

-1.0

1.1

0.7

1.4

-2.2

-2.7

-1.2
-2.0

-4.4

-2.6

-4.2

1.2

1.9

-1,1

*1.4

-0.6

-2.0

0.1

OS

5.6

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

6-96

7-96

8-96

0.8

1.2

0.7

1.3

2.0

1

15

1.1

1.7

2.3

6-95

7-95

8-95

Retail Sales are deflated using the CPI (1982-84=100).




128.719

4.9

... 3 6
1.4

127.647

15

130.622
5.9

131.250
130.335
130228
129.766
130.361

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1,1996

Total Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted
Ratio

Ratio

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Inventories and Sales
(Billions of Dollars)

1993
1994
1995
1995
July
August
September
October
November
December
1996
January
February
March
April
May
June
July
August

Manufacturing
Shipments (1) Inventories (2)
3126.01
390.72
3343.38
406.21
3565.75
432.34

Retail Trade
Sales (1) Inventories (2)
2072.55
267.92
2227.76
290.60
2342.02
302.88

Total Business (3)
Sales (1 ) Inventories (2)
7139.15
874.52
7648.54
931.70
8161.69
989.84

293.90
299.81
300.75
299.82
300.76
301.28

426.72
427.25
429.96
431.30
431.65
432.34

195.62
197.08
196.43
196.19
197.91
199.10

299.58
302.38
303.30
306.22
307.27
302.88

677.11
685.05
686.06
685.66
690.24
695.29

977.49
981.70
986.37
992.27
993.64
989.84

298.69
301.76
300.65
308.00
311.20
308.85
312.40
312.64

434.72
435.62
435.41
435.44
434.22
433.87
434.45
435.61

199.13
203.39
204.23
204.03
205.67
204.37
204.72
204.25

304.37
304.82
302.15
303.40
303.93
304.19
308.86
311.11

690.69
699.21
700.25
709.54
715.13
711.76
719.18
717.09

995.35
996.01
994.01
998.43
996.98
997.32
1002.40
1007.03

1. Annual data are sums of monthly shipments/sales.
2. Annual data are end-of-year stocks.
3. Total business is the sum of manufacturing, retail trade and merchant wholesalers.




16

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Final Sales and Real GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Real final sales and real GDP are chain-weight quantity indexes scaled to 1992 dollars.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Final Sales of Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

1-92

6.2

2-92

4.0

1.8

3-92

3,6

2.4

3.0

4-92

3.9

3.1

3.8

4.6

1-93

2.9

2.1

2.2

1.9

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

6249.542
6320.711

2-93

2.7

2.1

2.1

1.8

2.7

2.1

2.2

1.9

11

6307,113

IIM Ä p
1.7
2.0

6334.496
2.3

6371.296

4-93

3.0

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.0

3.0

3.7

5.0

1-94

2.8
2.8

2.3
2.4

2.4

2.3

1.9

2.5

2.8

2.5

2.4

2.0

2.6

2.8

3.0
3.0

2.9
2.9

2.6
2.7

2.7

2.3

2.9

31

3.3

2.7

2.6
2.7

2.5

3.0

3.2

2.3

2.7

2.8

4-94

4-94

6203.759

3-93

2-94

3-94

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
2-96
6175.815

-0.9
0.4

3-94

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

6449.202
1.2

6467.727

2.0

3.0
3.6

33

2.8
2.9

2.9

2,5

6514.945

35

4.2
3.8

3.5

2.8

2.7

2.0

0,6

6582.060
6638.134

1-95

2.8

2.5

2.5

2.5

2-95

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.7

2.8

24

2.6

2.6

2.0

1.3

2.1

3-95

2.8

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.4

27

2.8

2.9

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.4

2.1

2.8

6647.366
6682.420
3.6

6741.364

4-95

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.2

1.9

2.4

2.5

1.4

1-96

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.7

26

2.3

2.1

2.5

2.7

22

28

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.8

3.0

2.8

3.6

4.1

24; 25
2-94 3-94

2,1.

2.4

2.5

23

•&S

%z

0.3

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

2-96

2.8

2.6

2.5 . 2.5
2.6
2.6

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.6

3-96

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.6

£6

2.6

2.4 m s

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




17

6764.193
3.0

6815.153
6884.700
6889.628

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank ot St. Louis
November 1,1996

Components of Real GDP Growth Rate (1)

Real GDP

3rd
2.17

1996
2nd
4.67

1st
2.00

4th
0.25

1995
3rd
3.80

2nd
0.75

1st
0.43

Final Sales

0.29

4.15

3.04

1.35

3.56

2.11

0.55

Change in Business
Inventories

1.90

0.59

-1.03

-1.08

0.15

-1.43

-0.09

Personal Consumption
Expenditures

0.30

2.28

2.36

0.71

1.65

2.11

0.65

Fixed Investment
Nonresidential
Residential

1.24
1.52
-0.24

1.05
0.41
0.61

1.47
1.19
0.28

0.51
0.26
0.24

0.85
0.51
0.34

-0.23
0.36
-0.56

1.19
1.49
-0.26

Government Expenditures

-0.26
-0.28
0.02

1.39
0.62
0.76

0.30
0.40
-0.11

-0.81
-0.96
0.17

-0.11
-0.41
0.31

0.15
-0.10
0.25

-0.23
-0.49
0.26

Net Exports
Exports
Imports

-1.01
0.07
-1.08

-0.63
0.66
-1.28

-1.12
0.21
-1.33

0.99
1.19
-0.21

1.19
1.18
0.00

0.07
0.65
-0.58

-1.08
0.28
-1.36

Residual (2)

-0.03

-0.03

0.04

-0.06

0.03

0.07

-0.03

Federal
State and Local

(1) Contribution of each component to the compound annual rate of real GDP growth in each quarter indicated.
Elements may not sum to the total due to rounding.
(2) Residual line is calculated using the finest level of detail shown in the table.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Billions of Chained
Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1*92

6.4

2-92

4.3

2.2

3-92

3.8

2.9

4-92

4.2

2.6
3.5

4.1

5.4

1-93

2.8

3.0

3.0

2-93

3.5
3.4

2.8

2.9

2.9

1.7

2.7

3-93

3.4

2.9

3.1

3.1

2.4

3.3

3.8

4-93

3.4

2.9

3.1

3.1

2.5

3.1

33

2.8

1*94

3.3

2.9

3.0

3.0

2.6

3.1

2.8
3.0

2.8

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
4173.758
4196.418
4226.674
4282.333

0.7

*

4289.676
4318.835
4359.471
4390.023

2-94

3.3

3.0

3.1

3.1

2.7

3.1

32
3.2

32

3.5

3*94

3.3

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.3

3.0

3.1
3.1

2.7

4-94

3.0
3.1

2.8

31

31

3.0

3.1

3.1
3.1

4420.532
4458.721
4489.357

2.8

4523.959

2.9

3 1

2.3

1.0
20

2-95

3.1

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.6

2.9

2.9

27

27

2.7

25

2.0
24

3-95

3.0

2.8
2.7

2.8
2.7

2.6
2.5

2.8
2.6

2.8

2.7

2.7

S iili

2.4

22

2.6

25

2.5

2.6
2.4

2.2

2.1

19

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.7

2.7

4-95

2.9

2.8
2.7

1-96

2.9

2.7

2-96

3.0

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.6

3-96

2.8

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




4534.762
4569.870

31
2.8
2.2

4597.341

2.4
1.7

4609.410

1.1

4649.076
2.5

2.5

24

2.7

2.6

2.6

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

2.2
2-94

18

3-94

3.4

3.4

4-95

1-96

4687.603

*1
2-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1, 1996

Real Residential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

1-92

24,7

2-92

23.4

22.2

3-92

16.3

12.4

3.3

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94
- \ V 1 s '^/'V',' \ '

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
2-96
213.917
224.906

1—

4-92

16.9

14.4

10.7

18.7

1-93

13.8

11 2

7.8

10.1

2.1

1'•'!üÜHi

2-93

10.4

7.7

4.4

4.8

-1.6

-5.1

3-93

10.8

8.6

6.1

6.8

3.6

BMW

i %6sk$sl

236.669

i ■

237.930
234.808
242.222

13.2

4-93

12.4

10.7

8.9

10.1

3.1
8.1

10.1

18.6

24.3

1-94

12.5

9,5

10.6

9.0

10.8

16.7

18.4

2-94

125

114)
11 2

9.9

10.9

9.6

112

15.7

165

12.8
12.7

3-94

1111

9.8

8.5

9.2

7.9

8.9

11.9

11.6

7.7

5.2

*1.8

4-94

10 1

8.9

7.6

8.1

6.9

7.6

9.8

9.2

5.7

3.4

-1.0

-0.1

1-95

8.8

7.5

6.3

6.6

53

5,7

7.4

6.4

3.2

0.9

-2.8

-3.2

255.762
263.596
271.574

12.7

270.324
270.261
-6.3

265.895

2-95

70

5.7

4.5

4.6

3.3

3.4

4.5

3.3

0.2

-2.2

-5.5

-6.8

-9.9 -13.4

3-95

7.1

6.0

4.8

5.0

3.8

4.0

5.0

4.1

1.4

-0.3

-2.8

-3.0

-3.9

-2.7

9.2

4-95

7.1

6.0

4.9

5.1

4.0

4.2

5.2

4.3

2.0

0.6

-1.3

-1.2

-1.5

0.2

7.8

6.4

1-96

I I I
7.6

6.1

$.1

4.4

5.4

4.6

2.6

1.4

-0.1

0.2

0.2

2.0

7.7

6.9

7.4

2-96

6.7

5.8

5.9

5.1

5.3

6.2

5.6

3.9

3.0

1.8

2.3

2.8

4.7

9.7

9.9

11.7

16.3

3-96

6.9

$2

~4$1

4.6

5.3

4,6

3,0

2,1

0.9

1.3

1*5

2,9

8,4

5,8

5.6

4.7

*«*0

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

4-91

5.9 ~ s T
1-92

2-92

Third quarter data are advance estimates.

256.520
262.245
266.337
271.105
281.519
277.351

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1, 1996

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

1-92

3.6

2-92

6.8

10.0

3-92

5.2

6.0

2.2

4-92

5.5

6.1

4.2

6.2

1-93

5.6

6.1

4.8

6.1

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Billions of Chained
Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
544.357
557.484
560.558
569.082

6.0

577.495

2-93

5.7

6.1

5.2

6.2

6.2

6.3

3-93

5.6

5.9

5.1

5.8

5.7

5.5

4.7

586.371
593.137

4-93

7.0

7.5

7.1

8.1

8.5

9.4

10.9

17.5

1-94

7.0

7.5

7.1

7.9

8.3

8.8

9.7

12.3

617.578
7.3

628.545

2-94

7.0

7.4

7.1

7.8

8.1

8.5

9.1

10.6

7.2

7.1

3-94

7.6

8.0

7.8

8.5

8.9

9.4

10.0

11.4

9.4

10.4

639.480
13.8

660.472
679.713

4-94

8.0

8.4

8.3

8.9

9.3

9.8

10.3

11.5

101

11 0

130

12.2

1*95
2-95

8.6
8.2

9.0

9.6

9.9

10.4

11.1

12.1

13.8

13*8

15.4

9.0

9.3

9.6

10.1

10.9

11.1
9.8

12,1

8.5

8.9
8.4

10.3

11.1

10.2

93

3.5

3-95

8.0

8.3

81

8.6

8,9

9.2

9.5

10.1

9.1

9,4

9.8

8.9

7.8

4.2

4,9

4-95

7.6

7.9

7.7

8.2

8.3

8.5

8.8

9.2

8.2

8.4

8.6

7.5

6.4

3.6

3.7

2.5

1-96

7.8

8.1

8.0

8.4

8.6

8,8

9.0

9.5

8.6

8.8

9.0

8.2

7.4 .....M ..
6.8
5.2

6.2

6.9

2-96

7.6

7.8

7.7

8.1

8.2

8.4

8.6

8.9

8.1

8.2

8.3

7.6

3-96

8.0

8.2

8.1

8.5

8.6

8.8

9.0

9.4

8.7

8.8

9.0

3k4 Î Ü Ü

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




IO

3-94

4-94

704.449
710.480
718.954
723.339
11.6

743,478

5.6

5.9

7.7

3.8

6.7

7,4

8.0

9.9

9.1

14.7

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

750.512
776.609

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1,1996

Real Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91
1*92

'

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

3-95

2-95

4-95

1-96

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
2-96

2J5 »'

1258.542

2-92

1.1

-0.3

3-92

1.7

1.3

xïpÿ

2.9

Ü

i i

1257.505
:

1266,491

4-92

1.7

1.5

2.4

1.9

1-93

0.4

-0,1

0,0

”1.4

-4.6

1257.695

2-93

0.4
| AAI

-0.0
A4

1258.415

0.6

0.3

0.1
-0.8
-2.2
0.2
flO
A v . &1H.. 1. lflt l fl tl i
HÜIlü
:.....! "
1.2
0.5
-0.0
-0.5
0.9

1.94

0.1

-0.2

-0.2

-0.7

-1.3

41.4

2-94

-0.0

-0.3

-0.3

-0.8

-1.2

3-94

0,6

0.4

0.5

0.2

-0.1

4 .0 9
w
isWi?
4-93

1272.506

................. .......................

1.5

1266.200
1252.362

-0.5

*0.0
-0.7

-1.5
-1.2

*4,3
-2.6

-0 8

0.7

0,8

0.8

0.5

3.0

7.0

1249.796

4-94

0.4

0.2

0.3

0.0

-0.2

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.0

1.5

2.7

1-95

0.3

0.1

0.1

0 .1

0.2

0*2

0.1

*0.2

0M

1.4

2-95

0.3

0.2

0.2

-0.0

-0.3
-0.2

0.3

0.3

0.2

-0.1

0.8

3-95

0.3

0.1

at

41

-0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

-0.1

4-95

-0.0

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.6

0 .2

-0.3

0 .4

1-96

0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.4

-0.1

*0.1

-0.2

2-96

0.5

0.4

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.5

0.5

0.5

0.4

3-96

0.4

0.3

0,3

0.1

0.0

0.4

0.4

0.3

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

1271.154
-1.4

1266.579

1.2

■
-0.6

- 1-2
-0.2

1262,687
0.8

0.6

0.9

•0.6

-0.3

0.1

0 .7

-01

0 .0

-1.4

-1.3

-0.4

0.1

-0.9

-0.8

0.9

0-2
1.1

0.3

0.2

0.7

0.8

4-93

1-94

2-94

1265.126
1263.357

-1.4

-0.6
-2.4

-4.3

-0.6

-1.1

-1.4

1.6

0.6

1.0

1.0

1.6

4.6

7.7

0.1

0.3

0.6

0.5

0.8

2.6

3.1

-1.4

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

1249.607
1254.675
1278.155
1273.719

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1,1996

Third quarter data are advance estimates.

Real Federal Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Billions of Chained
Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
525.078

1-92

-1,4

2-92

-1.4

-1.4

, 07
1.3

1.7
2.3

4.9
4.1

*1,6

*1.7

*1.8

Mt

-2.2

-2 4

-2.6

-5.0

-8.9

-49

*2.3
-2.1

-2.4

•4L.?

h4J5

*7.0

ÜÜ

-2.9

-2.2

-2.3

-3.7

-5.4

-2.9

-1.8

-0.7

505.025

**

-3A

«3.7

*5,1

-6.7

»5.1

-5.1

-8.2 -11 »4

489.914

-3.4

-3.6

-3.9

-5.1

-6.4

-5.9

-8.4

-5.3

mm

*4,1
-4.3

-5.1
lip

-5.2

-2.3
-2.7

-3.0

-2.7

*1.8
-2.7

*2.2
-3.1

2.8
-0 2

11.5
2.4

-5.9

*3.3

*3.8
-3 4

*1.8

*0.6

-6.2

-6.5

-1.7

-0.8

-4.6

-4.0

-4.9
-6.6

A3

-1.4
§111

-6.7

-6.8

4 .3

-3.8

-1.6

-4 0

6.0

-2.2

-1.3

-1.2

0.3

7.7

9.4

3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93

4-93
1-94
2-94

!

sw *

4-94

-2.4

-2.5

m

-2.8
-2.7

-2.9

2-95
«

oc :

-2 8

-2.9

.. -3.0

4-95

-3.5

-3.7

2-96

-3.0
-2.4

-3.1
-2.4

3-96

523.267

-3.0
-2.9
-3*1
-3.8
A
-2.5

-

529.803

3.4

-3.5
-3.6
-4.5

4M
-2.9

534.001
■

-12.7

*4,6

t ill

-4.2

-3.2

4-91

505,912

-3.0

-3 0

*4.3
-5.1

-3 5
-4.4

-3.3

M il

-4.3

-4.5

•4*3
-3.4

-2.6

-2.4

-2.4

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

479.359
472.543
456.154

-Ä.O

-2.4

-1.5

- 1.0

-1,8

-1.4

-2.4

-1.7

-1.8

-0.8

3.7

2.5

-4.0

1-94

2-94

3-9'L 4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

-2.5
4-93

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




489.164
480.991

-1.8
-3.8

*2.5
1-92

483.335
496.688

•4J1 •2.4
-5.0 -4.0

-3.5

- A

516,134
509.666

20

-2.7

-5.6
-9.4 -13.2

462.902
473.446
468.699

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1, 1996

Real Exports
(C om pound A nnual Rates of C hange)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

1-92

6.3

2-92

4.0

1.8

3-92

3.5

2.1

4-92

4.1

1*93

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Billions of Chained
Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

638,909
635.816
639.710

3.4

2.5
4.2

6.0

3.0

2.2

2.4

2.3

649.129
-1.3

647.083
660.044

2-93

3.9

3.4

3.8

4.3

3.4

8.3

3*93

2.0

1.3

1.2

0.9

-0.7

-0.5

-8.5

4-93

4.5

4.2

4.6

5.0

4.8

6.9

6.2

23.4

1-94

3.8

3.5

3.7

3.9

3.5

4.7

36

10.2

.

645.484
680.255
677.647

-1 5

703.108

2-94

4.9

4.8

5.2

5.5

5.5

6.9

6.5

12 1

6.8

15.9

3*94

5.4

5.3

5.7

6.1

6.1

7.3

BUI

11.5

7.8

12.8

9.7

4-94

6.2

6.2

6.7

7.2

7.3

8.6

8.7

125

9.9

140

13.0

165

747.573

6.7

6.8

7.8

7.8

10.8

8.4

11,0

9.4

9.3

752.330

- -Xv

1-95

6.0

5.9

6.3

2-95

5.9

5.9

6.3

6.6

6.7

7.6

75

10.0

8.0

10.0

8.6

8.2

2.6
4.2

5.9

3-95

6.3

6.3

6.6

7.0

7.1

7.9

7.9

10.1

8.4

9.0

88

6.4

8.3

10.7

9.3

9.2

7,4

9.1

10.7

10.7

8.2

7.9

6.3

7.2

7.7

6.2

719.560

763.226
782,952

4-95

6.5

6.6

6.9

7.2

7.4

82

8.2

10.2

8.7

10.1
10.2

1-96

6.3

6.2

6.6

6.9

6.9

7.6

7.6

9.3

7.9

9.1

2-96

6.2

6.2

6.5

6.8

6.8

7.5

7.4

9.0

76

87

79

7.6

62

69

7.2

60

37

5.6

3-96

5.9

$.9

6.1

6.4

6.4

7.0

6.9

8.3

7.0

7.9

7.0

6.7

5.4

5.8

$.8 ! 4.6

2.7

3.1

0.6

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

Third quarter data are advance estimates.

2-95

3-95

803.087
806.713

18

817.864
819.086

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1, 1996

Real Imports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

**

1*92

4.1

2-92

8.6

13.3

3-92

6.1
7.4

71

1.3

4-92

8.6

6.3

11.6

1-93

7.6

8.5

9.9

8.3

2-93

8.5

9.4

7.0
8.4

10.9

10.5

12.7

3-93

7.8

8.5

7.5

9.1

8,3

8,3

4.1

4-93

9.0

9.7

9.1

10.7

10.5

11.3

10.6

17.5

1-94

8.9

<o
Ot

4-91

Billions of Chained
Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

9.0

10.3

10.1

10.5

9.8

12.8

8,2

647.827
668.344
670.524
689.141
703.089
724.429
731.707
761.777
776.962

2-94

9.8

10.5

10.1

11.4

11.4

12.0

11.9

14.6

13.2

18.4

3-94

10.5
10.5

10.2

11.3

11.3

11.2

11.2

11.6
11.4

12.9

12.3
11.8

14.5
13 1

10.7

10.2

11,8
11.6

13.6

4-94

9.9
9.9

105

103

1-95

10.0

10.5

10.3
9.8

11.2
10.6

11.2

11.4

12.7

12,6

10.7

10.8

105

11.5

11.7
10.5

10.9

9.2

9,9

84

9.0

7v3

810.404
831.262
851.919

2-95

9.6

10.1

10.5

115
10.7

3-95
4-95

8,9

9.0

9.7

9.5

9.8

8.5

9.3
8.8

8.5

9.0

8.8

8.9

85

90

8.0

7.9

63

54

4.2

2.0

0.8

1.6

1-96

8.6

8.9

8.6

9.1

9.0

9.0

8.7

9.1

8.3

8.3

8.3

SS

4.1

O'O

8.6

11.2
7.8

45

6.4

5.1

. 2,2

*0.0

874.851
884.605

884,524
888.023

2-96

8.7

9.0

8.7

9.2

9.0

9.1

8.8

9.2

8.4

8.5

&0J
7.3

68

6.2

5.2

4.0
5.4

7.3

10*6
10.3

3-96

8.7

8.9

8.7

9.1

9.0

9.0

8^

9.1

8.4

¡1111

7.4

7.0

63

5.7

8-0

7,5

9.8

9.1

8.3

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-96

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




'■ j 'l

910.707
9.9

932.556

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1, 1996

;

Trade and Current Account Balances
Current Prices
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

The goods and services trade balance and the current account are for the current plus 3 previous quarters
until 1993. Since 1993, the goods and services trade balance uses the current plus previous 11 months.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

U.S. International Transactions
(Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted)
2-96

1-96

4-95

3-95

2-95

1-95

4-94

209,321
48,195

205,150
47,497

203,615
46,513

199,210
45,269

194,718
46,779

188,986
44,100

184,126
39,368

Imports
Goods and Services
-237,196
Income Payments on Foreign Assets in the U.S. -49,799

-229,377
-47,235

-223,006
-48,403

-223,545
-49,630

-226,542
-47,641

-218,501
-45,000

-211,472
-42,462

Balance on Current Account

-38,779

-34,869

-30,435

-37,688

-40,976

-39,054

-42,655

Change in U.S. Assets Abroad
U.S. Official Reserve Assets
U.S. Private Assets

-49,165
-523
-48,213

-68,750
17
-68,615

-98,214
191
-98,206

-39,595
-1,893
-37,954

-108,299
-2,722
-105,398

-61,747
-5,318
-56,275

-59,603
2,033
-60,693

Change in Foreign Assets in the U.S.
Foreign Official Assets
Other Foreign Assets

80,315
13,197
67,118

99,471
52,021
47,450

99,229
11,369
87,860

118,816
39,186
79,630

115,421
37,380
78,041

90,995
21,822
69,173

72,632
266
72,366

Exports
Goods and Services
income Receipts on U.S. Assets Abroad

Note: Negative values indicate dollar outflows from the United States.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

22

Gross Saving as a Percent of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving plus government surplus and consumption of fixed capital.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Saving and Investment
(Billions of Dollars and Percent of GDP)

Gross
Private Saving

Gross
Government
Saving

Gross
Private Domestic
Investment

1993: 1
2
3
4

Billion
981.0
951.8
962.4
954.6

Billion
-72.3
-28.0
-24.9
17.5

Percent
-1.1
-0.4
-0.4
0.3

Billion
843.6
855.9
873.8

1994: 1
2
3
4

1013.5
991.3
1003.8
1018.3

15.0
14.4
14.4
14.4

20.8
74.1
51.1
52.4

0.3
1.1
0.7
0.7

957.6
1016.5
1033.6
1050.1

1995: 1
2

1043.8
1018.5

3
4

1085.9
1138.9

14.6
14.1
14.9
15.5

71.2
84.4
82.7
81.7

1.0
1.2
1.1
1.1

1996: 1
2
3

1133.8
1121.6
NA

15.3
14.9
NA

84.1
122.9
NA

1.1
1.6
NA

Percent
15.2
14.6
14.6
14.3

Gross
Gov't Domestic
Investment

Net
Foreign
Investment

Billion
207.1
210.6
209.8
214.7

Percent
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2

Billion
-62.6
-83.0
-96.2
-111.0

14.1
14.8
14.8
14.8

207.3
208.5
217.2
216.3

3.1
3.0
3.1
3.1

-106.5
-129.7
-150.6
-158.9

-1.6
-1.9
-2.2
-2.2

1072.0
1050.3
1074.8
1064.0

15.0
14.6
14.7
14.5

219.1
223.7
224.7
220.1

3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0

-146.2
-150.8
-138.1
-110.2

-2.0
-2.1
-1.9
-1.5

1068.9
1096.0
1155.7

14.4
14.5
15.2

228.8
235.1
231.9

3.1
3.1
3.0

-129.9
-144.2
NA

-1.7
-1.9
NA

911-2

Percent
13.1
13.2
13.3
13.6

Percent
-1.0
-1.3
-1.5
-1.7

Note: Gross private and government saving equals gross private, government, and net foreign investment minus a statistical discrepancy.
Net Foreign Investment is the excess of U.S. investment abroad over foreign investment in the U.S..




23

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Corporate Profits After Tax
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
.

-

.

4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96
2-96

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter

Annual Rates

3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92 3-92 4-92 1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95 3-95
....................... I.............................................................................................................................. ....................................................
' ” ................................................................................. ..................... ................................
.....
-, _
V*£«W
S
• ;
6,3
29.0 56.6
273.4
9.9 11.7 -20.3
-7.0 -11.1 -33.0 -43.6
12.2 13.7 2,2 15.8 138.1
9.5 10.2
0.9
9.2 52.0 -3.0
1ÛJ2 10.8 3.4 10.4 38.2 5.2 14.2
lilia li
13.5 14.6
8.8 15.8 38.7 15.8 26.5 40.1
... :...............
v t e 34.8 29.6
15.2 16.4 11.6 18.0 36.8 19.1 dt.a
2.7
6.5 18.4
3.0
7.5
7.6
4.5
1.5 -13.7 -42.5
'i
6.4 96.9
13.6 14.3 10.4 15.0 27.3 14.7 18,6 19.7 13.6
7.6 47.1 10.0
13.3 13.9 10.3 14.4 25.0 14.0 17.1 177 12.7
13.5

10.2

13.9

10.6 11.0
10.3 10.6

7.8
7.7
10.5

10.8

12,9

12.7

13.1

12.2 12.6 10.2
12.7 13.1 10.8
12.4 12.8 10.6
3-91

4-91

1-92

10.5
13.3
12.7
13.2
12.9
2-92

23.1
18.6
17.4

20.1
18.9
19.0
18.2
3-92

13.4
9.7
9.4
12.9

12.2
12.9
12.5
4-92

15.9
11.5
10.9
14.6
13.7
14.3
13.8
1-93

16.2
11 1
10.5
14.7
13.7
14.3
13.7
2-93

11.9

7.9

6.8 2.8
6.8 3.4
11.8 9.5
11.1 9 0
12.0 10.2
11,6 9.9
3-93

4-93

33.1
18.9
16.3
21.9
v m

19.5
18.1
1-94

9.5
0.5
1.9

10.8
\ 9.8
11.3

10.8
2-94

I |||j
9.0
-4.0 -15.4
&5
-0.6 -5.1
11.0 11.7 28.3 54.5
9.8 10.0 20.1 2 7 3
11.5 12.0 20.2 25.1
10.9 11,3 17.5 20.5
3-94 4-94 1-95 2-95

4-95

1-96
244.4

..............................MMinilMIMMI

258.3
223.8
278.0
275.9
285.2
310.3

■

331.1
288.3
H ts
349.7
357,3
342.7

5,3
12.6
10.9

20.4
13.8

7.6

3-95

4-95

1-96

348.1
388.1
393.1
411.8
419.4

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1,1996

Corporate Profits After Tax with Capital Consumption and Inventory Valuation Adjustments.
Second quarter data are final estimates.

Corporate Profits and Net Cash Flow
(Billions of Dollars)
Inventory
Valuation
Adjustm ent

Capital
Consum ption
Adjustm ent

Corporate
Profits(1)

After-Tax
Profits(1)

Dividends

Capital
Consum ption

1993: 1
2
3
4

427.4
447.8
469.6
512.8

275.9
285.2
310.3
331.1

190.2
195.8
200.2
202.9

409.5
414.2
422.7
421.4

-14.6
-15.6
7.9
-4.0

5.0
5.8
3.8
12.3

509.8
519.2
524.9
553.6

1994: 1
2
3
4

459.7
534.3
553.1
570.9

288.3
341.5
349.7
357.3

204.4
208.8
212.5
218.5

455.4
432.2
437.1
439.3

-3.9
-9.8
-16.5
-22.8

-11.8
18.1
18.8
21.3

543.2
574.8
590.9
600.8

1995: 1
2
3
4

560.0
562.3
612.5
611.8

342.7
348.1
388.1
393.1

221.7
224.6
228.5
234.7

444.4
451.3
456.9
463.6

-51.9
-42.3
-9.3
-8.8

17.4
15.0
14.6
16.5

617.3
617.0
625.8
630.8

1996: 1
2
3

645,1
655.8
NA

411.8
419.4
NA

239.9
243.1
245.2

465.6
471.0
477.0

-17.4
-11.0
2.2

20.4
22.3
23.8

654.8
658.4
NA

Net
Cash Flow

(1) Profits data includes the Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment.
The latter is the excess of depreciation allowances over Capital Consumption.
Net Cash Flow equals After-Tax Corporate Profits less Dividends, less the Inventory Valuation Adjustment, plus Capital Consumption.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis

24

Government Deficit(-)/Surplus( + )
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

1990
1991
National income accounts basis

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

Federal G overnm ent Debt
(Billions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals

1993: March
June
September
December

Gross
Federal
Debt
4234.6
4349.4
4425.7
4519.4

Federal Debt held
by Agencies
and Trusts
1061.4
1088.2
1119.4
1142.8

Net
Federal
Debt
3173.9
3263.1
3307.0
3373.4

1994: March
June
September
December

4582.0
4641.1
4707.2
4784.3

1162.4
1190.2
1215.4
1245.9

3420.0
3452.4
3493.3
3535.0

349.2
352.7
360.4
367.6

3074.0
3099.7
3138.2
3167.1

630.7
637.4
658.1
684.5

1995: March
June
September
December

4871.4
4944.9
4989.4
4972.9

1277.7
1302.5
1322.9
1293.5

3594.4
3643.6
3668.4
3675.9

376.1
382.7
380.1
384.6

3217.7
3256.6
3290.8
3293.8

725.9
790.1
851.1
856.6

1996: March
June

5125.8
5153.5

1378.7
1407.1

3748.1
3747.0

387.9
384.3

3360.4
3359.0

925.9
966.3

Federal Debt
held by Federal
Reserve Banks
311.4
324.6
330.1
337.5

Federal Debt
Federal Debt
held by Private held by Foreign
Investors
Investors
2875.4
562.1
2949.9
570.9
2993.0
593.8
3046.5
619.2

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus
net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors).
Sources: Orginal data may be found in the TREASURY BULLETIN; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.



Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

25

Government Budgets
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)
Federal, State and Local

Federal

1992:1
2
3
4

Receipts
1183.4
1193.1
1187.0
1230.5

Expenditures
1450.7
1472.8
1484.5
1509.5

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-267.4
-279.6
-297.5
-279.0

Receipts
1841.4
1858.9
1860.1
1921.8

Expenditures
2024.0
2051.9
2075.7
2109.1

1993:1
2
3
4

1225.2
1271.3
1280.3
1324.4

1509.7
1521.5
1534.7
1557.7

-284.5
-250.2
-254.4
-233.3

1916.8
1977.4
1995.0
2057.1

1994:1
2
3
4

1321.9
1382.8
1387.1
1416.3

1534.6
1552.5
1575.7
1606.4

-212.7
-169.6
-188.5
-190.1

1995:1
2
3
4

1449.3
1483.2
1486.6
1494.7

1621.9
1644.3
1645.0
1649.3

1996:1
2
3

1523.1
1575.6
NA

1678.3
1702.3
1703.1

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-182.6
-193.0
-215.5
-187.3

Grants-in-Aid (1)
165.4
173.0
174.2
176.3

2120.9
2138.5
2154.5
2175.4

-204.0
-161.0
-159.5
-118.3

177.3
181.5
187.2
197.0

2053.3
2129.1
2143.3
2184.4

2171.2
2193.5
2232.2
2275.2

-117.9
-64.4
-88.9
-90.7

192.2
197.5
196.9
196.9

-172.6
-161.1
-158.5
-154.5

2224.4
2266.7
2284.2
2298.6

2298.0
2328.7
2348.8
2365.0

-73.7
-62.1
-64.6
-66.4

205.8
211.3
203.8
203.3

-155.2
-126.7
NA

2338.5
2402.0
NA

2402.7
2427.6
2446.3

-64.3
-25.7
NA

207.6
219.3
215.7

(1) Federal Grants-in-Ald to state and local government are part of federal expenditures and state and local receipts, but are netted out in computing total
government measures.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Budgets
Fiscal Years
(Billions of Dollars; Unified Budget Basis)

Calendar Years
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)

Receipts
1129.8

Expenditures
1284.5

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-154.7

1990

Receipts
1031.3

Outlays
1252.5

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-221.2

1991

1054.3

1323.6

-269.4

1149.0

1345.0

-196.0

1992

1090.5

1380.9

-290.4

1198.5

1479.4

-280.9

1993

1153.5

1408.7

-255.1

1275.3

1530.9

-255.6

1994

1257.7

1460.8

-203.1

1377.0

1567.3

-190.2

1995

1351.5

1514.4

-163.8

1478.4

1640.1

-161.7

1996

1452.8

1560.1

-107.3

NA

NA

NA

Note: Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off budget.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

26

Federal Government Receipts
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4*81
1-92

4-91

1-92
!

2-92

3-92

4-92

3,0
5.5

80

j 47

5.6

3.3

3-92

3.0

3.0

0.6

-2.0

4-92

«4

6.4
3.6

15.5
6.5

-1.7

m

6.7

M

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
2-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96
1,160.9
1,183.4

.......
'

...<............ ,

1,193.1
1,187.0

1-93

4.2

4.4

&3
3.5

2 *3
3-93

5.8

6.2

5.9

6.8

5.4

58

54

5.8

7.9

5.4

9.2

29

Ì li!

6.6

S iili

9.2

7.6

10,0

m

14,5

1,230.5
1,225.2

mo

1,271.3
1,280.3
1,324.4

4*93
1-94

M
5.6

59

5.7

60

74

5.9

79

53

6.6

-0.8

2-94

6.0
64

7.2
67

7.2

7,7

8.1
7 1

8.8
72

10.8

6.9

9.1
8.1

10.2

66

83

0,0
64

101

1.2

m

6.9

6.8

7,1

82

7,3

8.6

8.4

6.9 ! 9.6

4.9

3-94

3-94

86

1,321.9
19.7

1,382,8
1,387.1
1,416.3

1-95

6.8

7.1

7.0

7.3

8.3

7.5

88

7.5
7.8

86

7.5

96

6.5

9.2

9.7

2-95

7.0

7.3

7.2

7.5

8.4

7.8

8.9

8.0

8.8

7.8

9.6

7.3

9.7

9.7

3-95

66

6.8

6.7

7.0

7.8

7 1

80

7.2

7.8

6.8

8.1

60

9.3
7.2

6.7

5.2

0.9

4-9$

6.3
64

6.5
66

6.4

6.7

6,7
.7 ... 7.5

6.7

7.1

6.2

7.3

5.3

6J2

5.5

4.2

1.6

65

67

7.3
7.4

6.8

7.5

6.8

7.2

6.4

7.3

5.7

64

6.0

5.1

3.6

5.0

7.8

**
3-91

7.0

7,0

m m

7.8

7.3

8.0

7.4

7.8

72

8.1

6.7

7.6

7.4

6.9

6.2

8.1

11 1

14.5

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

1-96
2-96

.

8.7

Second quarter data are final estimates.

1,449.3
1,483.2
1,486.6
1,494.7

2.2

1,523.1
1,575.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1, 1996

Federal Government Current Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94 4-94

Annual Rates
1-95

2-95

4-95

1-96

2-96
1450.7

1-92

15.4

2-92

10.7

6.2

3-92

8.1

3,2
5.0

6.9

3.4

3,4

4-92

7.8

4.7
5.4

1-93

6,2

4.1

1472.8

.

1484.6
1509.5

llllllliiik

0.1

2-93

5.7

3.9

33

33

1.6

3.2

3-93

5.4

3.8

3.3

3.4

2.2

3.3

3.5

4-93

5.5

4.2

38

3.9

3.2

4.3

48

6.1

1-94

4.2

2.9

2.4

22

1.3

1.6

1,1

1509,7
1521.5

1534.7
1557.7
,
-*■»
-0.7

:

1534.«

2-94

4.2

3.1

2.7

2.6

1.9

2.3

2.0

■00
1.5

3-94

4.4

3.4

3.0

3.0

2.9

2M

2.7

4-94

4.7

3.8

3.5

3.6

** !
3.2

36

3.7

3.7

3.1

6.3

3,6

3.3

5.7 ... ...........
6.0
6,0..
S™

3.9

1552.5

4.7

1.5 m

i

;

8.1
7.1

1606.4

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.7

2-95

4,6
4.7

3.8

3.9

3.7

3.8

35

39

4.0

4.0

3.7

57

5.9

5.8

4.8

3*95

4,4

3.7

3.5

3,5

3.2

3.5

35

8.5

3.2

4.7

4.7

44

3Æ

m

0.2

4-95

4.2

3.5

33

33

30

3.3

3.3

3.3

2.9

4.1

3.7

2.7

2.3

1-96

4.4

3.7

3.5

3.6 ■ H I

36

34

4.2
4 jtt

46

43 • 3*0

0.6
2g

4.7

3.6

2-96

4.4

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.6

3-96

4.2

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.3

35

35

3.5

3,3

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

4.7

4.5

4*2

4*0 *

2-94

Third quarter data are advance estimates.




2 "^

1575,7

8.0

3.2

1-95

3-95

3-94

1621.0

fliir S
56

3.9

3.9
4-94

1-95

1644.3

1645.0
1649.3

1.0

1678.3

> f ifr

3.5

4.7

6.5

5.8

2#

;$ 5 ,

4.4

3.0

0«2

4-95

1-96

2-96

2-95

3-95

1702.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
November 1,1996

1703.1

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

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