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N

a t i o n a l

E c o n o m

i c

T r e n d s

N ovem ber 1985

I n r e c e n t y e a r s , i n c r e a s i n g a t t e n t io n h a s b e e n p a id to in t e r n a t io n a l d e v e lo p m e n t s , e s p e c i a l ly t h e a p p r e c ia t io n o f th e d o lla r
a n d th e g r o w in g

d e f ic it in th e n a t io n 's

tra d e

o f th e d o lla r a p p r e c ia t e d s t e a d r l y f f i * !
lo w e r r e la t iv e

of

to th e n a t io n ’ s in c o m e t h a n t h e y

T h e s e d e c lin e s r e f le c t a b r o a d e r r e d u c t io n in
o f fo r e ig n

goods,

s e r v ic e s

and

a n d s e r v ic e s ,

to e a r ly
w e re

U.S.

a s s e ts r e la t iv e

1985. In
in

1980,

te n d to r is e .
goods

and

econom y,

Fro m

econom y.

The

m o re

s u b s t a n t ia lly .

as m e a s u re d b y U . S .

p u rch a se s

Thus, U . S .

g o o d s m e a s u r e d in f o r e ig n c u r r e n c ie s a n d d e p re s s th e d o lla r

e x p o rts te n d to f a ll, w h ile U . S .

p u r c h a s e s o f f o r e ig n g o o d s a n d s e r v ic e s

1 9 8 0 to t h e f i r s t t h r e e q u a r t e r s

o f 1985,

e x p o r t s , im p o r t s a n d im p o r t - c o m p e t in g

th e im p lic it p r ic e

d e f la t o r s

fo r e x p o rts

and

im p o rts

r o s e 1 8 .1 p e r c e n t a n d f e l l 1 1 . 8 p e r c e n t , r e s p e c t i v e l y , w e l l b e l o w t h e 2 9 . 2 p e r c e n t i n c r e a s e i n t h e a v e r a g e p r i c e o f U . S .
and

s e r v ic e s

m e asu re d

by

th e

G N P

W h e n e x p o r ts , im p o r ts a n d G N P

im p lic it p r ic e

o f re a l G N P

in

a r e m e a s u r e d a t u n c h a n g e d p r ic e s to is o la t e c h a n g in g q u a n t it ie s o f g o o d s a n d s e r v ic e s ,
a re a p p a re n t.

R e a l e x p o rts d e c lin e d fr o m

1 9 8 0 to 8 .4 p e r c e n t in t h e f ir s t t h r e e q u a r t e r s o f 1 9 8 5 ; r e a l e x p o r t s d e c lin e d

re a l G N P

ro se

1 3 .5 p e r c e n t .

R e a l im p o r ts

ro se

fro m

7 .4

p e rc e n t o f re a l G N P

in

1 0 .8 p e r c e n t

12 p e r c e n t o v e r th e p e r io d ,

1 9 8 0 to

1 0 .4 p e r c e n t r e c e n t ly .

T h e in c r e a s in g v o lu m e o f im p o r t e d g o o d s a n d s e r v ic e s h a s n o t in d u c e d a n in c r e a s e in th e s h a r e o f n o m in a l G N P
on

such

g o o d s b e c a u s e th e ir d o lla r p r ic e s

s h a re o f im p o r ts in n o m in a l G N P
e x p o rts fe ll fr o m
b illio n

in

W hen

p u rc h a se s

s tr ik in g . I n
b illio n ,

a ve ra g e

o f f o r e ig n

1980, U . S .

o r 3 .3

p u rch ase s

an

to 9 .1

d e f ic it o f $ 9 0 .8

good s,

th is d e c lin e d

s e r v ic e s

b illio n

As
in

B e tw e e n

1980

and

th e fir s t th re e

q u a rte rs

of

spent

1985,

th e

1 1 .5 p e r c e n t . O v e r t h e s a m e p e r i o d , p u r c h a s e s o f U . S .

a r e s u lt , n e t e x p o r ts

th e fir s t th re e

a c c o u n t,

to $ 6 .5

b illio n

a n d a s s e ts f e ll f r o m

o f 1 9 8 5 . T h is d e c lin e in th e s h a re o f U . S .
r e d u c tio n

12 p e r c e n t to

p e rc e n t.

a s s e ts a r e ta k e n in to

m o re .

q u a rte rs

th e s h r in k in g

(e x p o r ts m in u s im p o r t s ) f e ll f r o m

$ 2 3 .9

o f 1985.

sh a re o f U . S .

e x p e n d itu r e s

a b r o a d in G N P

is

i n v e s t m e n t a b r o a d ( f o r lo a n s a n d p u r c h a s e s o f f o r e ig n s e c u r it ie s o r d ir e c t in v e s t m e n t ) w a s $ 8 6 .1

p erce n t o f G N P ;

o f f o r e ig n

f e ll r e la t iv e ly

f e ll s lig h t ly f r o m

1 2 .9 p e r c e n t o f G N P

1 9 8 0 to

goods

d e f la t o r .

th e r e la t iv e m o v e m e n ts in d e m a n d fo r tra d e d g o o d s a n d s e r v ic e s

w h ile

v a lu e

e x p o r t s a n d im p o r t s w e r e

to th e n a t io n ’ s G N P .

T h e s e c h a n g e s p u t d o w n w a r d p r e s s u r e o n th e d o lla r p r ic e s o f U . S .

s e r v ic e s .

o n th e U . S .

b u t th e s h a re o f e x p o rts d e te r io r a te d

in v o lv e m e n t in th e w o r ld

A n a p p r e c ia t io n o f th e d o lla r te n d s to r a is e th e c o s t o f U . S .
c o s t o f fo r e ig n g o o d s a n d s e r v ic e s .

a n d th e ir e ffe c ts

1 9 8 5 , e x p e n d itu r e s o n b o th U . S .

in th e fir s t h a lf o f 1 985

1 5 .2 p e r c e n t o f G N P

in

(la te s t d a ta a v a ila b le ).

1 9 8 0 to

Thus, U . S .

1 1 .6 p e r c e n t in th e f ir s t h a lf

p u r c h a s e s o f im p o r t s a n d f o r e ig n a s s e ts is e q u i v a l e n t to n e a r ly

a $ 1 4 0 b illio n

a t th e c u r r e n t le v e l o f G N P .

— lo h n

T O E
F E D E R A L

V ie w s e x p re s s e d d o n o t necessarily re fle c t official p osition s o f th e Federal R e s e rv e S y s te m .



A .

T a to m

TOTAL C IV ILIA N EMPLOYMENT
COMPOUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL ________________________________________________ ______________

IN IT IA L HONTH____________________________________________________________________ THOUSANDS
OF PERSONS

MONTH
4-84

3— 84

5-84

6-84

7-04

8-84

9-84

10-84

11-84

12-84

1- 85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9—85

&

5— 84

6.1

9.1

6-84

5.0

5.8

7-84

3.7

3.8

8-84

2.4

2.2

9-84

2.5

2.3

10-84

2.5

*

1
CD

104,402

3.3

105,162
105,391

2.6

1 05,377

-0.2

105,146

-1.4

-2.6

0.0

0.1

2.8

2.4

1.1

0.7

1*0

2.9

2.9

2.6

2.5

1.5

1.2

1.6

3.0

3.1

3.3

12-84

2.8

2.7

1.7

2*1

3.2

3.4

3.6

3.9

1-8 5

2.6

2.5

1.6

1.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2*6

1.3

2-85

2.7

2.6

1.8

2.1

2.9

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.3

*

1
00

-0.1

105,394
105,649
105,932
106,273
106,391
106,685

3.4

2.9

2.8

2.2

2.5

3.2

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.2

4.2

5.0

2.5

2.4

1.9

1.8

2.0

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.3

1.9

2.1

1.5

-1.9

5-85

2.3

2.3

1.7

1.6

1.8

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.6

1 *6

1.0

-0.9

0.2

6-85

1.7

1.6

l . l

0.9

1.0

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.7

0.2

0.0

-0.9

-2.8

-3.2

-6.4

7-85

2.0

1.9

1.4

1.3

1.4

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.3

1.0

0.9

0.4

-0.7

-0*3

-0.5

5.7

8-85

2.1

2.0

1.5

1.4

1.6

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.3

1.3

0.9

0.1

0.6

0.8

4.6

3.5
4.2

«0

O
*

1 07,119

3-85
4-85

3.7

7=55

8=55

9=5F

2.2

2.1

10— 85

2.3

106,960
106,370
106,862

2.2

3^84— 4-S4— 5-64

1.6

1*8

2*1

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.4

0.8

1*3

1.6

4.5

1.8

1.7

3.9

1.9

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.0

1.8

1.9

1.7

1.2

1.7

2.0

4.3

m

9-85

106,945

9-84 1Ô-8V11-84 12^84 1-85— 2F5Η 3=55

4-^5

5=85

5=33

¿-84

Ô-Ô4

107,172
107,544
107,867

-------------------------------------------------- ------- IN IT IA L HONTH--------------------------------------------------------

PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
COHPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
THOUSANDS
ÖF

IN IT IA L MONTH

TERMINAL
M t*m r
4-84

5-84

6— 84

7-84

6-64

9-84

10-84

11-84

12-64

1-85

2-85

3-65

4-65

O
D
1

3-84

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85
93,725

4-84

4.4

5-84

4.0

3.6

6-84

4.0

3.9

4*1

7-84

4.0

3.9

4*0

3*9

8-84

3.9

3.8

3.9

3.7

3.6

9-84

4.0

3.9

4 *0

4.0

4.0

93,998
94,317
94,615
94,893
95,238

4.5

95,573

10-84

4.0

4.0

4.1

4.0

4*1

4.4

4.3

11-84

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.1

4.2

4.1

3.9

12-84

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.3

2.7

95,882
96,092
96,419

1-85

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.9

3*8

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.4

4.2

2-85

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.2

3.0

3*2

2.2

3-85

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.4

3.3

3*4

3.1

4.0

4-85

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.1

3*2

2.9

3.3

2.6

5-85

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.3

3.2

3*4

3.2

3.5

3.2

3.8

6-85

3.5

3*4

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.1

3.0

2 *9

2.9

2.6

2.8

2.3

2.2

0.6

3.0

2 *9

2.9

2.7

2.8

2*5

2.4

1.8

7-85

3.4

3*4

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.1

96,591
96,910
97,120
97,421
97,473
2*9

97,707

8-85

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.0

2*9

3.0

2.8

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.3

3 *2

3.5

9-65

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.9

2*8

2*8

2*7

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.2

2*7

2.5

1.6

97,987

10-65

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.3

3*3

3.3

3.2

3.1

3*0

3*1

2*9

3.0

2.9

2.9

2*8

3*3

3.4

3.4

5.2

3-84

4-84

5-84

¿-54^

7-84

8-8 4

9-84 1 0 - 8 4 1 T = 5 V 12-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85

9 8 , 115P
9 8 , 529P

IN IT IA L MONTH
f*- PRELIMINARY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK ÜF ST. LOUIS'
NOVEMBER 1» 1985

2

EMPLOYMENT
R A T I O SCAL E
M I L L I O N S OF PERSONS

R A T I O SCAL E
SEASONALLY

MILL IONS OF PERSONS

ADJUSTED

120

115
1 10

105

100

95

90

85

80

75
1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983
SOURCE.

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PER IO D S
LATEST DATA PLOTTED:

1984

1985

U.S.D EPARTM ENT OF LABOR

IN D ICATED .

OCTOBER PR ELIM IN A R Y
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESER VE BANK OF ST.

LO U IS

UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
PERCENT

SEASONALLY

PERCENT

ADJ USTED

1 2 . 0

1 1 .

1 1 . 0

1 0 .

1 0 . 0

9.

9.0

8 .

8 . 0

7.

7.0

6 .

6 . 0

5.

5.0




4.
1977

1978

1979

1980

4.0
1981

1982

1983
SOURCEt

PERCENT OF C IV IL IA N
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt

U .S .

1984

1985

DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

LABOR FORCE
OCTOBER

PREP ARE O BY F E D E R A L R ES ER V E BANK OF S T .

3

LOUIS

CONSUMER PR IC E

INDEX FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS, SEASONALLY AOJUSTED

-1ERM1ÜAL________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L

MONTH__________________________________________________________________________L?fc_7 = 100

3— 8 4
4 — 84

)
CD

MONTH
5 —8 4

4-84

7-84

8-84

5*2

9-84

10~84_

5-84

3-6

1~85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-8 5

7-85

8-85

9-85

2*0

6-04

3 .2

2 .2

..
2 .3

7-84

3 .3

2 .7

3 .1

3 .9

3 .7

3 .3

3 .8

4 .5

5 .1

3 ,8

3 .5

3 .9

4 .5

4 .7

3*8

4 .2

4 .3

3 .9

3*5

3*8

3 .8

3 .4

2*9

2 .3

3 .7

3 .7

3 .3

3 .0

2 .7

3 .1

9-84

__ 1 0 - 8 4 _

. 3 ,5
3*6

-

...

____ 3 - 3 ____ 3 . A _

3 .5

311*3
3 1 2 .6
3 1 3 .7

4 .3

314*6
3 1 5 ,2
3 1 6 .0

3 .3

2-85
3-85

3*4

3*5

3 **

3 . 1

2*8

2 .6

2 .7

2 .3

3 .3

3*5

3 .5

3*.?

1 - & .

3*5

3*6

3

3*3

3*1

3 .0

3*2

3 .3

4 .2

3 .6

.3 *5

3 .5

3 .9

4 .1

5 .0

____ â ? 7

3 1. ?

_

3_,_§_.

3 .8

3 1 6 .6
3 1 7 .7
3 1 9 .2

5 .8

6-85
7-85

._.3_*7 _

3* A .

3 ^ ?

3*9

3 .7

3 .7

4 .0

4 .2

4 .9

5 .2

4 .6

...

______<t“ 8 5
______

3 .5

3 .7

3 .8

3*8

3*6

3*6

3*6

3*8

3 .9

4 .3

4 .3

3 .6

2*7

.

3 .5

3*6

3 .7

3*7

3 .5

3 ,5

3*5

3*6

3 .7

4 .0

3 .9

3*3

2*7

2*6

3*4

3 .6

320*4
3 2 1 .1
3 2 1 .8

3 .4

3*5

3*6

3 .6

3 .4

3 .3

3 .3

3 .5

3 .7

3*0

2*5

2*5

2 .3

3 .3

3 .4

3*5

3*5

3 .3

3 .2

3 .2

3 .3

3 .3

3 .5

3 .4

2*9

2 .5

2*4

2 .3

2 .3

Îi2 -

3 .3

3 .4

3 .4

3 .2

3 .2

3 .1

3 .2

3 .2

3 .3

3 .2

2 .8

2 .4

2 .4

2 .3

2 .3

2 .3

3 .2

3 .3

3 .3

3 .4

3 .3

2 .9

2 .6

2 .6

2 .6

2 .8

3 .0

10-84

11-84

12-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4—85

5-85

6-85

7-85

9-85

3 .4

10-85

3 .4

3 .3

3 .4

3 .4

3 .4

3 .3

3 .2

3-84

4-84

5 —8 4

6-84

7-84

8-84

9-84

—

IN ITIAL

3 2 2 .4
323*0

00
1
00

3 .5

. 1 0 ?*7

3 1 0 .3

8-84

3 2 3 .6
3 .8

3 2 4 .6

9-85

MONTH

PREPARED 9Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T .
NOVEMBER 2 2 , 1985

LOUIS

PROOUCER P R I C E I N D E X , F I N I SHED GOOOS - S EASONAL LY A D J U S T E D *
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R AT E S OF CHANGE
T ERMI NAL
MONTH

INITIAL
3— 8 4

4— 84

4-84

5-84

6-84

7-84

8-84

9-84

10-84

11-84

1 967 * 100

MONTH
12-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7->65

8-85

9-85
291.6

0.4

5-84

-0.6

-1.6

6-84

-0.4

-0.8

0.0

291.2

7-84

0.3

0.3

1.2

291.2
2.5

2 91.8

8-84

-0.2

-0.4

0.0

0.0

-2.4

9—8 4

-0.2

-0.3

0.0

0.0

-1.2

0.0

291.2

10-84

-0.3

-0.4

-0.2

-0.2

-1.1

—0 . 4

-0.8

291.0

11-84

0.3

0.2

0.6

0.7

0.2

1.1

1.7

4.2

292.0

12-84

0.2

0.2

0.5

0.6

0.2

0.8

1.1

2.1

0.0

1-85

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.4

0.1

0.6

0.7

1.2

-0.2

-0.4

2-85

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.5

0.2

0.6

0.7

1.1

0.1

0.2

2 91.2

292.0
291.9
0.8

292.1
292.4

0.3

0.5

0.5

0.3

0.7

0.8

1.2

0.7

0.7

0.9

1.0

0.8

1.2

1.4

1.8

1.3

1.7

2.3

3.1

5.0

5-85

0.8

0.8

1.0

1.1

0.9

1.3

1.5

1.8

1.4

1.7

2.3

2.8

3.5

2.1

o

0.3

4-85

o

3-85

O

V

_

12-84

U - 3 4

3 0 9 . 2_

1.2

293.6
294.1

0.6

0.6

0*8

0.8

0.7

1.0

1.1

1.3

0.9

1.1

1.4

1.5

1.7

0.0

-2.0

7-85

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.9

1.2

1.3

1.6

1.2

1.4

1.7

1.9

2.1

1.1

0.6

3.3

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.5

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.9

-0.1

-0.8

-0.2

-3.6

-0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.4

-1.5

-2.3

-2.4

-5.2

—6 . 7

0.9

0.9

1.1

1.1

1.1

0.5

0.2

0.7

-0.1

1.6

10.8

11-84

12-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-Ô5

6-85

8-85

9-8S

9-85

0.1

0.2

0.2

0.0

0.2

0.2

0.3

10-85

0.6

0.6

0.8

0.8

0.7

0.9

1.0

1.1

3-84

4-84

5—84r

6— 84

7— 84

8-84

9-84

°

0.5

O
•

C
O
T
C
D

6—8 5

10-84

293.6
294.4

7-8 5

293.5
291.8

IN IT IA L MONTH
♦DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS ACO R E V I S E D T O R E F L E C T




LATE

R E P ORT I NG

PREPARED BY FEDERAL R E S E R V t BANK OF

NOVEMBER 15* 1985

4

294.3




P R IC E S

R A T I O SCALE
1967-100

RA T I O SCALE
1967-100

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

CONSU M ER P R IC E IN D E X
C P I- 0 D A TA B E G IN N IN G
PER CEN TAGES

ARE

LA TES T

P LO TTED .

D A TA

B E G IN N IN G JA N U A R Y 1978 IS
I « » 3 IN C O R P O R A T E A R E N T A L

A M tM A L

R ATES

OF

CHANGE

FOR

F O R A L L U R B A N C O M S W tfR S
E Q U I V A L E N C E M tA S U R E F O R

P E R IO D S

( C P I-U ) .
H O N E O » W C R S H IP

O C TO B E R
PREPARED

PRODUCER

RATIO SCALE
1967-100

BY FED ER A L

R ESERVE

PRICES

BANK

OF

ARE

LA TES T

P LO TTED .

D A TA

ANNUAL

R ATES

O C TO B ER

OF

CHANGE

FO R

P E R IO D S

L O U IS

1967-100

IN D IC A T E D .

PREPARED

5

S T.

RATIO SCALE

SEASO NALLY AD JUSTED

PER CEN TAG ES

CO STS.

IN D IC A T E D .

BY FED ER A L

R E S IR V E

BANK OF

S T.

L O U IS

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FINISHED CONSUMER FOOOS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED*
__________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE________________________
IN IT IA L

T E R M IN A L
MONTH
*
0
0
1

3-84

5-84

6-84

7-84

8-84

9-84

10-84

11-84

12-84

196 7

MONTH
1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-05

7-85

8-85

«

100

9-35
2 7 2 .7

4-84

- 1 2 .3

5-84

- 1 1 .0

- 9 .7

6-84

- 7 .5

- 5 .0

0 .0

7-84

- 1 .3

2 .7

9 .4

1 9 .0

8-84

- 1 .6

1 .2

5 .1

7 .8

- 3 .0

9-84

- 1 .7

0 .6

3 .4

4 .5

- 2 .4

- 1 .7

10-84

- 1 .7

0 .2

2 .3

2 .9

- 2 .2

- 1 .7

- 1 .7

11-84

- 0 .7

1 .1

3 .1

3 .7

0 .0

1 .0

2 .4

6 .8
4 .9

2 7 0 .4
2 7 0 .4
2 7 4 .5
2 7 3 .8
2 7 3 .4
2 7 3 .0
2 7 4 .5

12-84

0 .0

1 .6

3 .3

3 .9

1 .0

2 .0

3 .3

5 .9

1 - 85

- 0 .6

0 .8

2 .2

2 .5

- 0 .1

0 .4

1 .0

1 .9

- 0 .4

- 5 .5

2-85

- 0 .4

0 .8

2 .1

2 .3

0 .1

0 .6

1 .1

1 .8

0 .1

- 2 .2

1 .3

3-85

- 0 .8

0 .3

1 .4

1 .5

- 0 .5

- 0 .2

0 .1

0 .4

- 1 .1

- 3 .0

- 1 .7

4-85

- 1 .6

- 0 .6

0 .2

0 .3

- 1 .7

- 1 .5

- 1 .5

- 1 .5

- 3 .0

- 4 .9

- 4 .7

- 7 .6

- 1 0 .4

5-85

- 2 .4

- 1 .6

- 0 .9

- 1 .0

- 2 .9

- 2 .9

- 3 .0

- 3 .2

- 4 .8

— .6
6

— .8
6

- 9 .4

- 1 1 .7

- 1 2 .9

6-85

- 2 .3

- 1 .5

- 0 .9

- 1 .0

- 2 .7

- 2 .6

- 2 .7

- 2 .8

- 4 .1

- 5 .6

- 5 .6

- 7 .2

- 8 .1

- 6 .9

2 7 5 .6
2 7 4 .3
2 7 4 .6
- 4 .7

2 7 3 .5
2 7 1 .0
2 6 7 .9
- 0 .4

2 6 7 .8

- 1 .3

- 0 .5

0 .2

- 1 .2

- 1 .1

- 1 .0

- 0 .9

- 1 .9

- 2 .8

- 2 .3

- 3 .0

- 2 .6

0 .1

7 .4

1 5 .8

- 1 .7

- 1 .0

- 0 .4

- 0 .4

- 1 .8

- 1 .7

- 1 .7

- 1 .7

- 2 .6

- 3 .5

- 3 .2

- 3 .9

- 3 .7

- 2 .0

2 .0

3 .2

9-85

- 2 .2

- 1 .6

- 1 .0

- 1 .1

- 2 .4

- 2 .4

- 2 .5

- 2 .5

- 3 .4

- 4 .3

- 4 .1

- 4 .9

- 4 .9

- 3 .8

- 1 .3

- 1 .6

- 9 .4

- 1 0 .6

10-85

- 1 .2

- 0 .5

0 .0

0 .0

- 1 .2

- 1 .0

- 1 .0

- 0 .9

- 1 .6

- 2 .2

- 1 .8

- 2 .2

- 1 .9

- 0 .4

2 .3

3 .1

- 0 .9

2 .9

1 8 .5

3-84

4-84

5-84

6—8 4

7-04

0-84

9-04

10-84

11-84

12-04

1-05

2-05

4-05

5-05

¿- 0 5

7-05

8-05

9-05

8-85

9-85

♦

°

7-85
8—85

2 7 1 .1
2 6 9 .2

-8. 1

2 6 6 .7
2 7 0 .5

IN IT IA L HONTH
♦DATA FOR F O U R

MONTHS A $ 0 R E V I S E D

TO R E F L E C T

LA TE

R E P O R T IN G

PR O D U C ER P R I C E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D G O O O S, E X C L U D IN G FOO O S - S E A S O N A L L Y A D JU S T E D *
________________________________COMPOUNDED AN N UAL R A T E S OF CHANGE_____________________________________
T E R M IN A L
MONTH

IN IT IA L
3-84

4-84

5-04

4-84

2 .9
1 .9

0 .6

0-04

9-84

10-84

1 96 7

MONTH

11-04

12-04

0 .0

1-85

2-85

3 - 85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

1 .2

6-84

7-84

4 .6

5-84

6-84

*

100

2 9 5 .6
2 9 5 .9
2 9 5 .9

7-84

0 .0

- 0 .4

- 1 .2

- 2 .4

8-84

0 .2

— .8
0

- 1 .5

- 2 .2

- 2 .0

*-8 4

- 1 .0

- 1 .3

- 0 .8

0 .4

2 9 5 .3
2 9 4 .8

0 .3

- 0 .6

10-84

2 9 4 .9

0 .2

- 0 .5

- 0 .9

- 1 .1

- 0 .7

0 .0

— .4
0

11-84

0 .6

0 .0

- 0 .2

- 0 .2

0 .3

1 .1

1 .4

3 .3

12-84

0 .3

- 0 .2

- 0 .4

- 0 .5

- 0 .1

0 .4

0 .4

0 .8

- 1 .6

0 .6

1 .0

- 0 .2

1 .2
0 .0

0 .4

1 .0

2 .0

3 .7
1 0 .2

2 9 4 .8

0 .4

0 .0

- 0 .2

- 0 .2

0 .1

2-85

0 .4

0 .0

- 0 .1

- 0 .2

0 .2

0 .5

0 .6

0 .0

0 .3

0 .2

0 .3

0 .6

1 .0

1 .1

1 .4

0 .9

C
D

1-85

0 .6

O
•

2 9 5 .6
2 9 5 .2
2 9 5 .5
2 9 5 .6

3-85

0 .7

4-85

1 .4

l . l

1 .1

1 .2

1 .6

2 .1

2 .3

2 .8

2 .7

3 .0

4 .7

6 .9

5-85

1 .0

1 .6

1 .6

1 .8

2 .2

2 .7

3 .0

3 .5

3 .5

4 .5

5 .4

7 .1

8 .8

7 .5

6-85

1 .5

1 .3

1 .3

1 .4

1 .7

2 .1

2 .3

2 .7

2 .6

3 .3

3 .7

4 .5

4 .8

2 .2

- 2 .8

7-85

1 .4

1 .2

1 .2

1 .2

1 .6

1 .9

2 .2

2 .7

3 .0

3 .5

3 .5

1 .3

- 1 .6

- 0 .4

2 9 6 .5
2 9 8 .9
3 0 0 .7

o
•
<»
v

8-85

1 .2

1 .0

0 .9

1 .0

1 .3

1 .6

1 .7

1 .9

1 .7

2 .1

2 .3

2 .6

2 .4

0 .5

- 1 .7

- 1 .2

- 2 .0

9-85

0 .8

0 .6

0 .6

0 .6

0 .8

1 .0

1 .1

1 .2

1 .0

1 .3

1 .3

1 .5

1 .1

— .6
0

- 2 .6

- 2 .5

1
w
•
VI

3 0 0 .0

2 .3

10-85

1 .2

1 .0

1 .0

1 .0

1 .3

1 .5

1 .6

1 .8

1 .6

2 .0

2 .0

2 .2

2 .0

0 .7

H ).6

0 .0

3—8 4

4—84

5-64

6-84

7-04

0-04

9-84

10-84

1 1 - 0 4 Ï 2 —84

i- è 5

2 -*5

3-05

4-05

"6 ^ 8 *

2 9 9 .9

0 .1

2 9 9 .4
- 5 .1

2 9 8 .1

1 .2

7 .9

8-05

9-05

3 0 0 .0

IN IT IA L NonTh
♦DATA FO R F O U R MONTHS AGO R E V I S E D




TO

R E P O R T IN G

f*EfrA*EO ftV PË&EftAL
NOVEMBER 15, 1985

6

ftÉSË*¥fe

6an * ù f

ST.

l o u is

INDUSTRIAL
RATIO

PRODUCTION

SCALE

RATIO

197 7-100

SEASONALLY

1977

1978

1979

P ERCENTAGES

ARE A NNUA L

LATEST

PLOTTEOt

DATA

RATES

1980
OF

OC T O B E R

1981

CHANGE

SCALE

ADJUSTED

1977-100

1982

FOR P E R I O D S

1983

1984

1985

INDICATED.

PRELI MINARY
PREPAKE»

INDUSTRIAL
COMPOUNDED
TERMINAL

FEKRAL

RESERVE

BANK O f

ST.

LOUIS

PRODUCTION

ANNUAL

IN ITIA L

»Y

RATES

OF

CHANGE
1977

MONTH

*

100

MONTH
3-84

4-84

5-84

6-84

7-84

8-84

9-84

10-84

11-84

4-8 A
5-84

7.5

8.2

10.4

7-84

7.9

8.5

9,8

6.9

7.1

7.5

6 .0

9-04

5.4

5.2

5.0

3.3

0.5

-1 .9

10-84

3*7

3.3

2.8

1.0

-1 .6

“ 3.8

4,1

3.9

3.5

2.2

0.5

-0 .3

0.5

3*6

3*2

2*8

1*6

0.2

-0*5

0.0

3.0

3.5

3.2

2.9

1.8

0.7

0*2

0*7

3.0

1*0

2-85

3.3

3.0

2.6

1*7

0*7

0.3

0*8

2.5

7-85

8-85

9-85

-1*0

1-85

6-85

7.1

12-84

5-85

-5*7

11-84

4-65

9 .2

9-84

3-85

6.1

6-84

2-85

6 .2
6.1

1-85

12-64

120.7
121.3
122.3
123.2
123.5

3.0
123.3

122.7
123.4
123.3
123.6

3*0

o

1.0

123.7

3-85

3.2

3*0

2.7

1.9

1.0

0 .7

1.1

2.6

1.5

2.3

2.0

2.9

4 -85

3.1

2.8

2.5

i.8

1.0

0 .7

1.1

2.3

1*4

2.0

1.6

2.0

1.0

5— 8 5

2.8

2.6

2.3

1.6

0.9

0.6

1.0

2.0

1.1

1.6

1.2

1.3

0.5

0.0

1.5

1.0

1.0

2.0

124.0
124.1
124.1

6-85

2.8

2*6

2.3

1.6

1.0

0.8

l . l

2.0

1.3

1.6

1.4

7-8 5

2.5

2.2

2.0

1.4

0.7

0.5

0.8

1.5

0.9

l . l

0 .8

0.8

0.2

0.0

0.0

- 1 .9

8-85

2.9

2.7

2.4

1*9

1*3

1.2

1.5

2.3

1.7

2.1

1.9

2.1

1.9

2.2

2.9

3 .4

9.1

9-85

2.6

2.4

2.2

1.7

1*2

1.0

1.3

2.0

1.5

1.7

1.6

1.7

1*5

1.6

1.9

1.9

3.9

-1*0

10-85

2.5

2*3

2.1

1*6

1*1

1*0

1.2

1.8

1.3

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.6

1.5

2.6

-0 .5

0.0

3-84

4 -84

5-84

6-84

7-84

8-84

9— 84

10-84

11-84

12-84

1-85

2-65

3-65

4-65

5-65

6-65

7-85

8-65

9-65

IN ITIA L
P -

124.3
124.1
125.0
124.9P
1 2 4 . 9P

MONTH

PRELIMINARY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BA>* OF S T. LOUIS
NOVEMBER 15, 1985

7

PERSONAL
R A T I O S CAL E

I NCOME
R A T I O SCALE

MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES

TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS

TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

3.5
3.4
3.3
3.2
3. I
3.0
2.9
2 . 8

2.7
2 . 6

2.5
2.4
2.3
2 . 2
2 .

I

2 . 0

.9
1

.8

I .

.7

I .

.6

I .

.5

1 .

.4

I .

.3
1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

SOURCE:
PERCENT AGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PER IO D S
LATEST DATA PLOTTED.

U .S .

1984

1985

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

INDICATED.

OCTOBER PR ELIM IN A R Y
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESER VE BAMK OF S T .

LO U IS

PERSONAL I NCOME

TERMI NAL
MONTH

B I L L I O N S OF
CEL L ARS .
ANNUAL RAT ES

I N I T I A L MONTH
3-84

4-84

5-84

4-84

8.1
9.3

7.9

8-84

9-84

10-84

11-84

12-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

4.2

6-84

7-84

12.0

5-84

6-84

11.7

2.978.8
3.006.5
3.027,7

7-84

9.2

8.2

10.3

8.8

8-84

8.8

8.0

9.3

8.1

7.4

9-84

8.9

8.3

9.3

8.5

8.3

9.2

10-84

8.2

7.6

8.3

7.4

7.0

6.8

4.4

1 1-84

8.1

7.6

8.1

7.4

7.1

7.0

5.8

7.3

12-84

7.8

7.3

7.8

7.1

6.8

6.6

5.8

6.5

5.7

1-85

7.7

7.3

7.7

7.1

6.8

6.7

6.1

6.6

6.3

6,9

2-85

7.6

7.2

7.6

7.0

6.8

6.7

6.2

6.6

6.4

6.8

6.6

3-85

7.3

6.9

7.2

6.7

6.4

6,3

5.8

6.1

5,8

5,8

5.3

4,0

4-85

7.6

7.3

7.6

7.2

7.0

6.9

6*6

7.0

6.9

7*2

7.3

7,6

5-85

6.5

6.1

6.2

5.7

5.4

5*2

4.7

4.7

4.3

4.0

3,3

2,3

1*4

” 7*6

6-85

6.3

6.0

6*1

5.6

5.3

5. i

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.1

3,6

2,9

2.5

-1,7

4,6

3,1

4,9

3*045.8
3,068.3
3,079.3

ItA. .

3 »02

3.111.8
3.129.2
3,146.0

3.184.7

il.4

3.163,7
3.175,7

7-85

6.3

5.9

6.0

5.6

5.3

5.1

4,7

4.8

4.4

4.3

3,8

3,3

0.5

4,8

8-85

6. 1

5.7

5.8

5.4

5.1

4.9

4.6

4.6

4.3

4.1

3.7

3.2

3.1

1*1

4.2

4 .0

3.1

9-85

6.0

5.6

5.7

5.3

5.1

4.9

4.5

4.5

4.3

4 .1

3.8

3.4

3.3

1.7

4 .2

4.1

3*6

4 ,2

10-85

5.9

5,6

5,7

5.3

5,1

4.9

4.6

4.6

4,3

4,2

3.9

3.6

3*5 _

2.3

4,4

4.3

4.1

4.6

5,0

3-84

4-84

5-84

6-84

7-84

8-84

9-84

10-84

11-84

12-84

1-85

2-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85

INITIAL
P-

3-85

3 . 188*4
3.196.4
3,207.4

M
1 ONTH

P R E L I MI NA R Y




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST*
N0VEH8ER 21, 1985

8

_
3.156.2

3.220.5P

RETAIL
RATIO

SALES

SCALE

RATIO

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

1977

1978

SEASONALLY

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

SOURCE:
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PER IO D S
LATEST DATA PLOTTED:

SEPT EM BER,

SCALE

BILLIONS OF DOLLARS

ADJUSTED

U .S .

1984

1985

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

INDICATED.

OCTOBER ADVANCE ESTIM ATE
PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER VE BANK OF ST .

LO U IS

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R AT E S OF CHANGE
INITIAL

T E R MI N AL

MONTH

MI L L I O N S OF
nni i a r s

m o w tw

3-84
4-84

4-84

5-84

6-84

7-84

8-84

9-84

10-84

11-84

12 —84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85

39.2

107,443
107,941

5-84

21.3

5.7

6-84

18.6

9.5

13.5

7-84

9.0

0.4

-2.1

-15.5

8-84

6.7

-0.1

-2.0

-8.9

-1.8

9-84

7.5

2.1

1.2

-2.6

4.6

11.5

10-84

7.4

2.9

2.3

-0.3

5.4

9.1

6.9

11-84

8.3

4.5

4.3

2.6

7.7

11.1

10.9

15.1

109,085
107,563
107,396
108,373
108,974
110,255

12-84

7.1

3.7

3.4

1.8

5.6

7.6

6.3

6.0

-2.3

1-85

7.4

4.4

4.2

3.0

6.4

8.2

7.4

7.5

4.0

10.6

2-85

7.9

5.2

5.2

4.2

7.3

8.9

8.4

8.8

6.8

11.7

110,042
110,972
12.9

112,096
111,854

3-85

7.0

4.5

4.4

3.4

6.0

7.2

6.5

6.5

4.4

6.8

4.9

-2.6

4-85

9.5

7.4

7.5

6.9

9.8

11.3

11.3

12.0

11.5

15.2

16.7

18.7

44.7

5-85

8.4

6.4

6.4

5.8

8.2

9.4

9.1

9.5

8.6

10.9

11.0

10.3

17.4

-4.8

6-85

7.0

5.0

4.9

4.3

6.3

7.1

6.6

6.6

5.5

6.8

6.1

4.4

6.9

-8.1

-11.4

115,351
114,884
113,730

7-85

7.0

5.2

5.1

4.5

6.4

7.2

6.7

6.7

5.7

6.9

6.3

5.0

7.0

-3.2

-2.4

7.5

8-85

8.3

6.6

6.6

6.2

8.1

8.9

8.7

8.9

8.2

9.6

9.5

8.9

11.3

4.3

7.5

18.4

30.4

9-85

9.3

7.7

7.9

7.5

9.4

10.3

10.2

10.5

10.0

11.5

11.6

11.4

14.0

8.7

12.3

21.5

29.2

28.0

10-85

6.5

4.9

4.9

4.4

5.9

6.4

6.1

6.0

5.2

6.0

5.5

4.6

5.7

0.3

1.3

4.8

3.9

-7.3

-32.8

4-84 _ M 4

6— 84

7-84

8-84

9-84

10-84

11-84

12-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

4-85

5-85

6-85

7-85

8-85

9-85

3-84

INITIAL
PE-

114,417
116,977
119,409P
115,512 t

MONTH

P R E L I MI N A R Y
EST I MATED




PREPARED BY P E P E R AL R E S E R V E B A M

NOVEMBER 14, 1985

9

OP

ST.

LOUIS

HOURLY COMPENSATION, BUSINESS SECTOR
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
INITIAL

T ERMI NAL
QUARTER
1-81

4-80

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

197 7* 10 0

QUARTER

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85
139.2

1-81

10.7

2-81

9.0

7.4

3-81

9.3

8.7

9.9

4— 8 1

8.8

8.1

8.5

141.7
145.1
147.6

7.1

151.4

1-82

9.2

8.8

9.2

8.9

10.7

2-82

8.8

8.4

8.6

8.2

8.7

6.8

8.2

8.4

8.0

8.3

7.1

7.5

8.6

3-82

153.9
150.7
1 58.4

4-82

8.0

7.7

7.7

7.3

7.3

6.2

5.9

4.4

1-83

7.7

7.3

7.3

6.8

6.8

5.8

5.5

4.5

4.6

7.1

6.7

6.6

6.1

6.0

5.0

4.6

3.7

3.3

2.0

2-83

160.2
161.0

3-83

6.6

6.2

6.1

5.6

5.4

4.5

4.1

3.3

2.9

2.0

2.0

4-83

6.6

6.2

6. 1

5.6

5.5

4.7

4.4

3.8

3.7

3.3

4.0

6.1

161.8

1-84

6.5

6.2

6.1

5.7

5.6

4.9

4.7

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.7

6.1

6.2
1.9

164.2
166.7

2-84

6.2

5.9

5.7

5.4

5.2

4.6

4.3

3.9

3.8

3.6

4.0

4.7

4.1

3-84

6.1

5.8

5.6

5.3

5.1

4.6

4.3

3.9

3.9

3.8

4.1

4.6

4.2

3.1

4.4

4-84

6.0

5.7

5.5

5.2

5.0

4.5

4.3

4.0

3.9

3.8

4.1

4.6

4.2

3.5

4.3

4.1

4.0

3.9

4.2

167.5
1 69.3
4.3

171.1

1-85

5.9

5.6

5.5

5.2

5.0

4.6

4.4

4.6

4.3

3.8

4.5

4.5

4.8

2-85

5.7

5.5

5.3

5.0

4.9

4.5

4.3

4.0

3.9

3.9

4.1

4.4

4.1

3.7

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.3

3-8 5

5.7

5.5

5.4

5.1

4.9

4.5

4.4

4.1

4.1

4.0

4.3

4.6

4.3

4.0

4.*

4.5

4.5

4.4

5.6

4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

INITIAL
P-

173.1
174.5
1 7 6 . 9P

QUARTER

P R E L I MI NA R Y

OUTPUT PER HOUR UF A IL PERSONS, BU S IN E S S SECTOR
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE
INITIAL

T ERMI NAL
QUARTER
4— 80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

1977*100

QUARTER
2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85
100.5

1-81

6.2

2-81

3.3

0.4

3-81

3.4

2.0

3.6

4-81

1.3

-0.3

—0 . 6

—4 . 6

1-82

1.5

0.4

0.4

-1.2

2.4

2-82

0.9

-0.2

-0.3

-1.6

0.0

100.o
101.5
100.3
100.9
100.3

-2.4

100.9

3-82

1.1

0.3

0.2

—0 . 6

0.8

0.0

2.4

4-82

1.3

0.6

0.7

0.1

1.3

0.9

2.6

2.8

1-83

1.4

0.8

0.9

0.5

1.5

1.3

2.5

2.6

2.4

101.6
1 02.2

2-83

1.8

1.4

1.5

1.2

2.2

2.1

3.3

3.6

4.0

5.6

3-83

1.9

1.5

1.6

1.4

2.3

2.2

3.2

3.4

3.6

4.2

2.7

4-83

1.9

1.5

1.6

1.4

2.2

2.1

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.3

2.1

1.5

103.6
104.3
104.7
1 05.7

1-84

2.0

1.7

1.8

1.6

2.4

2.4

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.4

2.7

2.7

3.9

2-84

2.2

1.9

2.1

1.9

2.6

2.6

3.3

3.4

3.5

3.7

3.3

3.5

4.4

5.0

3-84

2.1

1.9

2.0

1.8

2.4

2.5

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.8

2.8

3.2

2.9

4-84

2.2

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.5

2.5

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.2

2.8

2.8

3.2

2.9

1.9

3.0

1-85

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.5

2.0

1.9

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

1.8

1.7

1.7

1.1

-0.1

-0 .6

-4.0

2-85

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.9

1.9

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.2

1.8

1.6

1.6

1.2

0.3

0.1

-1.3

1.5

2.0

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.5

0.6

0.8

0.1

2.3

3.0

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

3-85

1.9

1.6

1.7

1.6

2.0

*T§0

1-81

¿“ 81

3-81

4-81

IN ITIAL

107.0
0.7

107.2
108.0
106.9
107.3
1 0 8 .IP

QUARTER

P- PRELIM INARY




PREPARED BY F E D E R A L RE S E RVE BANK OF S T .

0CT06ER 28, 1985

10

LOUIS

PRO D U C TIVITY,
R A T I O SCALE
1977-100

1977

1978

COMPENSATION,

AND

LABOR

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

COSTS
R A T I O SCALE
1977-100

1984

1985

SOURCE t U.S. DEPART lit NT OF LABOR
PERCENTAGES ARE ANM
UAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt 51» QUARTER PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of ST. LOUIS
unA 9 b Aou n
COHPUUNOED ANNUAL RAT ES OP CHANGE
INITIAL

T ERMI NAL
QUARTER
4-80

1-81

2-81

3 — 61

4-81

1-62

2-62

3-82

4-82

1 - 63

1977*100

QUARTER
2-63

3-83

4-83

1-64

2-84

3-64

4-64

1-85

2-65
138.5

1— 8 1

4.1

2-81

5.6

7.1

3-81

5.7

6.5

5.8

4-81

7.3

8.4

9.0

12.3

140.9
142.9
147.1
150.0

1-62

7.5

8.3

8.7

10.2

8.1

2-82

7.8

8.5

8.9

9.9

8.7

9.4

3-82

7.4

7.9

8.1

8.7

7.5

7.2

5.0

4-82

6.6

7.0

7.0

7.2

6.0

5.3

3.3

153.4
1 55.3
1*5.9

1.6

1 56.8

1-83

6.1

6.4

6.3

6.4

5.2

4.5

3.0

1.9

2.3

2-83

5.1

5.3

5.0

4.9

3.7

2.9

1.3

0.1

-0.6

-3.5

3-83

4.6

4.6

4.4

4.2

3.1

2.3

0.9

-0.1

-0.7

-2.2

155.4
155.1

-0.8

156.8

4 —6 3

4.6

4.6

4.4

4.2

3.2

2.6

1.5

0.8

0.6

0.0

1.8

4.5

1-84

4.4

4.4

4.2

4.0

3.1

2.5

1.6

1.0

0.9

0.6

2.0

3.4

2.3

2-84

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.*

2.5

1.9

1.0

0.4

0.3

-0.2

0.7

1.2

-0.4

3-84

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.4

2.6

2.1

1.3

0.9

0.8

0.5

1.3

1.9

1.0

0.4

3.9

4-84

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.2

2.5

2.0

1.3

0.9

0.6

0.6

1.3

1.7

1.0

0.6

Z «4

3.6

3.0

2.6

2.0

1.7

1.7

1.6

2.4

2.9

2.6

2.7

157.7
-3.0

.156.5
156.0
1.0
5.0

1*8.4
9.1

161.9

1-85

4.0

4.0

3.8

2-65

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.5

2.9

2.5

2.0

1.7

1.7

1.6

2.3

2.7

2.5

2.5

3.9

3.9

5.4

1.7

3-85

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.4

2.9

2.5

2.0

1.8

1.8

1.7

2.3

2.7

2.5

2.5

3.6

3.5

4.4

2.1

2.5

4-80

i-8l

2-61

3 -e i

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-63

2-83

3-83

4-63

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2 —6 5

162.6
163.6P

I N I T I A L QUARTER
P-

PRELI MI NARY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK UF S T. LOUIS
OCTOBER 28, 1985

11

QRQSS NATIONAL PROPUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE
IN ITIAL

T ERMI NAL
1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

C
O
1

4-80

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS

QUARTER
2-83

1-84

4-83

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-65
2,875.8

1-81

22.1

2-81

13.7

6 .0

3-81

13.5

9.5

13.1

4-81

10.7

7.1

7.7

2.5

1-82

8.4

5.2

5.0

l . l

2-82

7.8

5.1

4.9

2.3

4.7

3-82

7.0

4.7

4.4

2 .4

3.6

2.5

4—82

6.6

4 .6

4.3

2.7

3.7

3.2

3.9

2 ,918.0
3,009.3
3,027.9
-0 .3

3,026.0
3,061.2
3,080.1
3,109.6

1-83

6.8

5.1

4.9

3.6

4.9

4.9

6.2

8.5

2-83

7.4

5.8

5.8

4.8

6.3

6.7

8.2

10.4

12.3

3-83

7.6

6.3

6.3

5.5

6.9

7.4

0.7

10.3

11.2

10.1

4-83

7.8

6.6

6.7

6.0

7.5

7.9

9.0

10.4

11.0

10.3

10.6

5.9

3,173.8
3,267.0
3,346.6
3,431.7

1-84

8.4

7.3

7.4

6.9

7.4

8.4

8.9

10.0

11.3

12.0

11.9

12.7

14.9

2-84

8.5

7.6

7.7

7.2

7.7

8.6

9.1

10.1

11.2

11.7

11.6

12.0

12.8

10.7

3-84

8.3

7.4

7.5

7.1

7.5

8.3

8.7

9.5

10.4

10.7

10.3

10.4

10.3

8.1

4-84

8.3

7.4

7.5

7.1

7.5

8.2

8.6

9.3

9 .9

10.1

9.8

9.7

9.5

7.8

6.4

7. 1

1-85

8.1

7.3

7.4

7.0

7.3

8.0

8.3

8.9

9.5

9.6

9.2

9.0

8.7

7.2

6.1

6 .4

5.6

2-85

7.9

7.1

7.2

6.8

7.1

7.7

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.Ô

8.6

8.4

8.0

6.7

*.7

5 .Ô

5 .1

4 .5

8.3

8.7

8.8

8 .4

8.2

7.Ô

6.7

5 .4

6.0

5.6

5.6

6 . Í

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

7.8

7.1

7.2

6.8

7.1

7.6

4-80

3-85

7.9

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

IN ITIAL

GROSS N A T I O N A L

Ì , 553.3
3 ,644.7
5.6

3,694.6
3,758.7
3,810.6
3,8 53.1
3,915.9

QUARTER

PROOUCT

IN

1972 DOLLARS

--- CÔHFOÜWTÏ) ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE----'
BILLIONS

IN IT IA L QUARTER

T E R MI N A L
QUARTER
4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

2 — 8¿

3-82

1-83

4-82

2-83

3-83

4-83

l - é 4

2 -ft4

"3-Ô

4

4-64

1-Ô 5

"2 -Ô 5

1,513.5

1-81

10.0

2-81

4.6

-0 .5

4 .0

1.1

4-81

1.6

-1 .1

-1 .4

-5 .4

1-82

0.3

- 2 . Ó

-2 .5

-5 .0

-4 .7

2 -Ô 2

0.1

-1 .7

= 2 .1

-3 .5

-2 .8

■

'

1,511.7
1,522.1

2.8
1,501.3

1,483.5

— .8
Ô

1 ,4 8 0 .5

3-82

0.0

- 1 .6

-1 .8

-3 .0

- 2 . 1

-0 .9

-0 .4

4— 82

0.0

- l . i

-1 .5

-2 .3

- re

—0 . 4

- Ô .F

Ò.5

1-83

6.4

—0 . 7

-0 .8

- 1 .4

-0 .5

0.5

Ó.4

1.9

2-83

1.3

0.3

0.4

0.1

1.0

2.2

3.0

4.3

6.3

9.4

3-83

1.8

1.0

1.1

0.9

1*8

3.0

i . 7

4.4

'6.5

8.1

6.8

4-83

2.1

1.4

1 . 6

1.5

2.4

3.4

4.1

5 . 1

6 . i

7.4

6.4

1-84

2 . t

2.1

2.3

2.3

Í7 2

2-84

3.0

2.5

2.7

2.7

5.6

3-84

2.9

2 .4

2.6

2.6

4-84

3.0

2.5

1-85

2.8

2-85

2.8
2.8

2.5

2.6

4-80

1-81

2— 81

1,477.1
1 , 4 7 6 . ft

4.2
■ T . 5

1,491.0

3.3

4.4

5.Ô

7.1

5 . r

¿.1

7 .1

4 .5 “

3.4

3-85

OF

DOLLARS

ANNUAL RAT E S

5.5

1,524.8

1,572.7
Ï , 510.9

8.0

7.6

Ó.0

10.1

7 . 4~~

7 .5

7 . 7

é.5

7.1

¿.3

6. 8

5¡3

6 . 1

6 .2

4 .3

1.6

5.9

5.7

5.7

4 . i

2.9

"

2.8

2.8

3.5

4.2

4.7

5.4

5.Ô

5.4

2.4

2.6

2.6

3.2

3.9

4.3

4.9

5.4

5.6

2.4

“2 .5 “

2.5

3.1

3.7

4.1

4.6

5.0

5.2

2.5

3.2

T .ô

4.1

4.6

4 .9

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82




1,550.2
5.9

1,638.8
1,645.2
1,662.4

" 4 . 2 “

1,663.5

4.8

4.6

i . 5

2.Ô

2.2

0 .3

4.7

4.4

4. 1

3.0

2.0

2 .1

i . r ~

1.9

5. 1

4 .6

4 .4

4 .2

3 .2

2 .4

2 .7

2
.1

3.1

4.3

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

1-85

2-85

INITIAL

~ 5 a

4-84

1 , 6 7 1 . !j
1,688.9

QUARTER

PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
“ NOVEMBER 20,

12

1985---------------------------------

G R O S S

N A T I O N A L

P R O D U C T

QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES
RATIO SCALE
RAT 10 SCALE
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
TR I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
4
4
4

3
3
3
3
3

1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

SOURCE» U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
L A T E S T DATA PL OT TED , » 0 QUARTER




PREPARED , r FEDERAL RESERVE 6A»K Of ST. L O U I S

13

GE NE RA L
RATIO

PRICE

INDEX*

SCALE

1977
*A S USED

RATIO

1978

1979

IN NATIONAL

1980

1981

1982

INCOME ACCOUNTS

SOURCEt

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIO D S
LATEST DATA PLOTTED»

1983
U .S .

SCALE

1984

1985

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

INDICATED.

3RD OUARTER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESER VE BANK OF ST.

IMPLICIT

PRI CE D E F L A T O R FOR GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANGE
INITIAL

T E R MI N A L
OUARTER
4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

LO U IS

3-82

4-82

1972 * 100

QUARTER

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-64

4-84

1-85

2-85
190.01

1-81

11.0

2-81

8.7

6.5

3-81

9.2

8.3

4-81

8.9

1-82

8.1

2-82

193.03
10.0

197.70

8.3

9.2

8.3

201.69

7.4

7.6

6.5

4.6

7.6

7.0

7.1

6.2

5.1

6.4

203.98
¿ 0 6 .7 7

5.6
3.4

208.53

3-82

7.0

6.4

5.5

4.5

4-82

6.6

6.0

5.9

5.1

4.3

4.1

3.4

3.4

1-83

6.4

5.8

5.7

5.1

4.4

4.4

4.0

4.2

5.0

2-83

6.0

5.5

5.4

4.7

4.1

4.0

3.6

3.7

3.8

2.6

3-83

5.7

5.2

5.1

4.5

4.0

3.9

3.5

3.5

3.6

2.9

3.1

4-83

5.6

5.2

5.0

4.5

4.0

3.9

3.7

i r r

3.8

3.4

$ :r

4.4

1-84

5.5

5.1

5.0

4.5

4.1

4.0

3.8

3.8

3.9

3.6

4.0

4.4

4.4

2-84

5.4

5.0

4.8

4.4

4.0

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.6

3.8

4 .Ó

S .4

3.3

3-84

5.3

4.9

4.8

4.3

4.0

3.9

3.7

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.8

4.0

3.9

à. 7 '

4.<r

4-84

5.1

4.7

4.6

4.2

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.5

ÍÍ7

*.Ô

i . 6

3.4

3.4

2.8

3.9

3 .7

374

4 '.Ô "

'4 .Ö

3 .Ô

4.<T

4 .ô

5 .4

4.3

4.0

4 .5

4.2

4.4

4 .1

2-81

3-81

1-85

5.1

4.8

4.7

"2-Ô5

“ 5 .5 “

4.7

3-85

4.9

4.5

4-80

1-81




4.5

¿1Ö.2?
212.87
214.25
215.84
¿10.21
220.58
222.40
224.57
226.10
2 2 9 . 07

3.9

3.8

3.9

3.8

3.7 ■ s r r

3 .8

3. 5'

3 .7

3 .5 ”

3 .7

3.5

3.7

3.6

4.0

2.5

3.8

3.7

3.6

3 T 5 - ■ 375"

3.6

3 .5

3 .S

3 .4

1 .4

3 .2

3 .4

2 .5

F .*

4-81

1-82

2-82

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

¿.ir

3.5“

3-82

4-82

1-83

INITIAL

2 3 0 .5 5
231.06

QUARTER

PREPARED BY F EDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T .

NQVEffôÉft 20, 14S5

14

LOUIS

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAiTSATeS OP CWAN6G
BILLIONS
TERMINAL
Q U A R

T E
4-80

I N I T I A L QUARTER
R _________________________________________________________________________________________ 3 -8T
4-82
1-81
4-81
1-63
2-81
1-82
2-8*
3-81

____________ A N N U A L

“ 2 - 5 V “ 3-63

4-63“

1-84

2-64 " 3-34

4-54

1-65“

RATES

2-65
1,747.4

1-81

13.5

2-81

10.3

7.2

3-81

Id .*

4.0

10.9

4-81

8 .6

7.0

6 .4

1-82

8 .6

7.4

7.5

5.8

8.6

2-82

8.2

7.2

7.2

6.0

7.4

1,829.3

1, 8 / / . 3
1,841.8

3.1

1,931.3

6 .3

1,960.7'
2,001.3

3-82

8.3

7.4

7.5

6.6

7.8

7.4

8.*

4 — 82

8.4

7.7

7.8

7.1

8.2

8.0

6 .4

9.3

1-83

8.0

7.3

7.3

6.7

7.5

7 .2

r.T "

7.0

4.8

2-83

8.6

8.1

8.2

7.8

8.6

8.6

9.2

9.5

9.6

2,046. 1
2,070.4
2,141.6

14. "5“

3-63

8.5

6 .6

8.1

7 .6

6 .5

6 .4

4TC»

'8 .4

U .7 T

7 .5 “

4-83

6 .5

6.2

”

6.2

6.0

8.6

" 5T6

4.0

4 .0

4 .0

10.4

8 .4 "

1-64

8.6

“ §72~

8.3

8.0

6.6

‘

6.6

F.4

4 .0

8 .9

n r.o

8*
.

8 .9

8.6

2— 84

8.7

8.3

8.4

6
.2

8.7

6.8

9.1

4.2

9.1

10.0

8.4

9.4

9.4

10.2

3-84

8.5

8.1

8.2

7.4

8.4

8 .4

8.6

8.6

8.*

4.2

8.1

6.3

7 .9

7.6

5.0

4-84

8.3

8.0

6.0

7.6

6.2

8.2

8.4

8.3

8.2

6.7

7.6

7.8

7.5

7.1

5.5

5 .r

7.4

7 .7

7 .5

6.6

7 .?

7.7

7.5

6.9

7 .5

7.7“

7 .5

7.0

7 .5

1-84

2-84

3-84

2,181.4

‘ 9 .3

8.3

8.0

8.1

7.9

8.2

8.2

8.4

8.4

6.3

6“ 7
.

7 .4

2-65

8.3."'

6.0

8.0

7."4

6.2

6
.2

8.3

6 .3

' 8.2

8.6

7 .9

*-85

8 .}

8.0

8
.0

CD

—

1-85
"

OF

DOLLARS

8.2

8.1

6.3

8.3

‘ 8.5

7 .4

7 .4

4-80

1-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

2-81

3-81

6
.2
4-82

IN ITIAL

________________________________________________________________________ P E R S O N A L

2,230.2

4-83

2,276.5
2,332.7
2,36 1 .4
2,396.5

8*5

2,446.5

8
.2
8
.0

7 .8

2 ,493.0

7 .7

1— 85

4-84

7.6

2-85

2,539.0

QUARTER

CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN 1972
COMPOUNDED AN NU A L R A T E S OF CHANGE

P O L L A R S __________________________________________________________________________
BILLIONS

TERMINAL

IN ITIA L

QUARTER

OF

DOLLARS

QUARTER_____________________________________________________________ ______________________________________________________________________________________________________ANNUAL RAT ES
4-80
1-81
2-81

1.9

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

1-83

4-82

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2 —8 5

4.4

950.2
-0 .5

949.1

3-81

2.2

1.2

2.8

4-81

0.7

-0 .5

-0 .5

-3 .7

1-82

1.2

0.4

0.6

-0 .4

2.9

2-82

1.3

0.7

1.0

0.4

2.6

¿.2

3-82

1.5

1.0

1.3

0.9

2.5

2.2

2.2

4-82

1.9

1.6

1.9

1.7

3.1

3.2

3.7

5.1

955.7
946.8
953.7
958 . 9
964.2
976.3

1-83

2.0

1.7

2.0

1.9

3.0

3.0

3.3

3.8

2.6

2-83

2.8

2.6

3.0

3.0

4.1

4.4

4.9

5.8

6.2

10.0

3-83

2.9

2.7

3.1

3.1

4.1

4.3

4.7

5.3

5.4

6.9

3.8

982.5
1,006.2
1,015.6

4-83

3.2

3.1

3.4

3.5

4.4

4.6

5.0

5.6

5.7

6.8

5 .3

6.8

1-84

3.3

3.2

3.5

3.6

4.4

4.6

5.0

5.5

5.5

6.3

i . i

5.7

4.6

2-84

3.6

3.5

3.9

4 .0

4.8

5.0

5.3

5.8

*.9

6. 6

5.8

6.4

6.3

T . T
0*6

1,032.4
1,044.1
1,064.2

3-84

3.4

3.3

3.6

3.7

4.4

4.5

4.8

5.1

5.1

5.6

4.7

5.0

4.3

4. £

4-84

3.4

3.4

3.6

3.7

4.3

4.5

4.7

5.0

5.0

5.3

4. *

4.7

4.2

4.0

2 .1

3 .6

1-85

3.5

*.5

3.7

3.8

4.4

4 .5

4.7

* .ir

5 .0

5 .3

4.6

4.8

4.4

4 .3

3 .1

4 .4

~

1,065.9
1,075.4

5 .2

1,084.1

2—8 *

3 .6

3.6

3 .8

5.4”

4 .4

4 .6

4 .7

5.0

5 .0

5*2

4 .7

4.8

4.5

4 .4

"3 .5

4. 6

5 *0

4 .9

3-85

3 .7

3.6

"3."4

4 .6

4.5

4 .6

4 .6

* .6

5.0

'5 .2

4.7

4.8

4.6

4.5

' 3 .4

4* 7“

5 .1

5 .1

5 .3

4-80

1-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

4-84

1-85

2-85




2-81

INITIAL

3-84

1,102.1

1 ,1 1 5 .5

QUARTER

PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS

NOVEHftE* 20, 1985------------------------------

15

gross

p r iv a te
d o m es tic
in ves tm en t
in cu rrent
C ô h P O U W j Ç O a n n u a l J U T É S OP C h a N 6 €

d o llar s

BILLIONS
TERMINAL
QUARTER

IN ITIA L

ANNUAL
4-80

1-81

1-81

2-81

3-81

4— 81

2-82

1-82

67.1

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

I-*“

2-84

ï - é 4

4-84

1 - « " '

2-85

11.6

31.6

16.8

4-81

17.0

3.9

0.2

-1 7 .7

1-82

4.7

—6 . 8

-1 2 .2

-2 5 .5

-3 2.8

2-82

3.1

—6 . 4

-1 0 .4

-1 9 .2

-1 9 .9

-4 .5

3-82

0.6

- 7 .6

-1 1 .0

- I t . 8

-1 7 .8

-9 .1

-1 3.5

5 -è l

"

441.1
22.2

505.8
4Ô1.7
436.2
431.2
415.9

4-82

-4 .4

-1 1 .7

-1 5 .1

-2 1 .1

-2 1.9

-1 7.9

-2 3.9

-53.1

1-83

-Ô .7

-V .Ô

-9 .4

-1 3 .8

-1 3 .0

-7 .2

-8 .0

—5 . 2

34.3

2-83

3.6

-1 .8

-3 .3

-4 .5

2.5

4.3

10.9

42.8

"51 ; 9

449.6

3-83

6.7

2.0

1.0

-1 .4

1.2

8.3

11.1

18.3

4 5 .Ô

4775“

43.3

9.$

5.3

4.7

3.0

5.9

13.0

16.2

23.2

^5 .5

4 6 .Ö

44.3

45.2

1-84

13.6

10.0

9.9

8 .7

12.2

19.5

23.5

31.0

49.9

54.0

54.7

50.8

-J
CD

—6 •5

376.2
405.0

4-83

12.8

$ .4

9.2

8.1

11.1

17.5“

¿0.5

26.4

40 . 6

41.9

39.5

38.2

34.8

2.1

2-84

491.9
540.0
623.8
527.Ö

3-84

13.5

1Ó.4

10.4

9 .4

12.3

18.2

y i . r

26.2

3Ó.2

36.9

36.4

34.7

31.4

12.9

24.9

4 -84

11.6

8.5

8.4

7 .4

9.8

14. Ô

17.0

20.9

53.2

29.6

26.3

77
3

18.1

3.0

3.5

—14. 3

1-85

11.2

8.4

8.2

7.3

9.5

14.0

15.9

14. *

¿7.2

25.4 ' ? y . i

20.0

11T.T'

3.7

4.2

—4 . 8

2-85

I S 75"'

7.Ô '

7.5

6.6

8.6

12.7

14.3

17.2

¿5.9

22. a

19.6

15.6

12 . 4

2.5

2 .Ÿ

-3 .9

9.4

5.-5 '

5.5'

577~

7.5

11.2

12.5

14.9

T S . 7

19.4

16.3

13.3

9.4

0.8

0.6

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

•3 - 8 5

4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

INITIAL

r -

COMPOUNDED

RATES

ANNUAL

IN ITIA L

TERMINAL
QUARTER

662.8
637 . 8
5.Ô
1.7

"
-2 .2

3-84

4-84

643 .2
—7 . 1

-1 .3

1-85

631.5

2-85

I N 1 972 DOLLARS

OF

CHANGE
B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS

QUARTER

ANNUAL

1-81

2- 8 1

3-81

4-81

2-82

1-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3 -8 3

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-64

4-84

1-85

RATES

2-65
2 2 8 .5

1-81

* 4 0 .2

2-81

2 2 .9

7 .7

3-81

1 8 .5

8 .9

2 3 2 .8
2 3 8 .5

1 0 .2

- 2 .8

- 7 .7

- 2 2 .6

- 2 .0

- 1 0 .4

- 1 5 .8

- 2 6 .3

- 2 9 .9

2-82

-5 .1

- l o . o

-1 5 .9

- 2 0 .7

- Í9 .7

- 8 .1

- 4 .3

- 1 0 .2

- 1 3 .5

- 1 8 .5

- 1 7 .1

- 7 .9

- 1 1 .6

4-8 2

- 8 .0

- 1 3 .4

- 1 6 .4

- 2 0 .9

- 2 0 .5

- 1 7 .1

- 2 1 .3

- 2 9 .9

1-83

- 4 .1

- 8 .5

- 1 0 .6

- 1 3 .7

- 1 1 .8

— .5
6

— .0
6

- 3 .1

2 0 4 .7
2 0 0 .4
1 9 4 .3
177.8

3 4 .0

1*1.5

2 I 2.6

2-83

0 .5

- 3 .2

- 4 .4

- 6 .4

- 3 .3

3 .1

6 .1

1 2 .8

4 3 .0

5 2 .5

3-83

3 .5

0 .4

- 0 .4

- 1 .7

1 .8

8 .3

1 1 .9

1 8 .7

4 1 .4

4 5 .3

3 8 .4

4-83

5 .9

3 .2

2 .8

2 .Ò

5 .6

1 2 .0

1 5 .7

2 ¿ ♦1

4 0 .5

4 2 .5

57.7

57.6

1-84

9 .9

7 .7

7 .7

7 .5

1 1 .5

1 8 .1

2274

2 9 .2

45.1

4 9 .2

4 Ä .2

5 5 .3

71.5“

2-84

9 .0

6 .9

6 .8

6 .5

1 0 .0

l i . 6

1 9 .0

2 4 .2

5 6 .6

57.1

5 5 .5

51.9

2 9 3 "

- 2 .2

1
CD

<N
CO

6 .5

1-82

1
fn

223 . 7

4-81

10. 0

8 .1

8 .1

8 .0

1 1 .3

1 6 .6

1 9 .7

2 4 .3

3 4 .9

3 5 .0

3 1 .8

3 0 .2

2 8 .0

1 0 .6

2 5 .0

4-84

8 .4

6 .6

6 .5

6 .2

9 .0

1 3 .5

1 5 .9

1 9 .5

Í6 « ¿

2 .1

4 .5

- 1 5 . Ó

*

545.Ô

QUARTER

GROSS P R I V A T E D OME S T I C I N VE S T ME N T

4-80

RATES

468.1

36.6

2-81

OF

OUAft TCR

2 5 0 .6

2 7 .7

2 6 .8

2 3 .0

2 0 .1

1-85

8.1

6 .3

6 .2

6.0

8.6

1 2 .6

1 4 .7

1 7 .7

2 4 .7

2 3 .6

1 9 .9

1 7 .1

2-85

7.4

5 .7

5.5

5 .5

7 .6

11.5

1T.Ö '

15.5

"2 1 .5

2 Ô .2

15.7

15.9"

3-85

6 .5

4 .9

4 .7

4 .4

6 .5

l i .H " " l T . Ä “ I S . 5

17. Ô

15.5

1Ô.9

4-80

1-81

2- 8 1

3-81

4-81

3-82

1-83

2-83

3-83




9 .7 '

1-82

2-82

4-82

INITIAL

249.5

2 8 5 .5
2 8 3 .9
3 0 0 .2
2 8 9 .9
2 9 2 .1

1 5 .4

2 .3

3 .9

—5 . 3

5 .1

~ T ö. *~

l.l

2.0

- 4 .7

- 0 .3

- 5 .5

7.5"

- Ô .5

-6 .1

- 5 .5

- 3 .Ô

- 5 .9

- 8 .2

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1- 8 5

2-85

4-83

2 8 9 .5
2 8 3 .4

QUARTER

PREPARED B V F E D E R A L
WÔVÇMèÉ*"2ôt

16

19ê5

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LOUIS

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOOOS ANO SERVIC ES IN CURRENT OOLLARS
CÖHPOUMOEO ANNUAL'S A T É S OP CHAISE
----- -

B IL L IO N S OF

èkMINAL
t N ï T I A Ì T Q U A f t T F R ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------Q U A R T E R _______________________________________________ ____________________________________________________
1-81
4-82 T - 8 5 ■ 2-83
2-61
3-8 1
2-82
3-82
4-80
4-81
1-82
2 -8 4 " 5^T5“
"5-83
4-85 " 1-84

---4-84

l - « ~

" DOLLARS
AMNUAL R A T E S

2-Ô5
576 . 6

1-81

13.2

2-81

9.6

6.2

*-81

10.2

8.8

11.4

4-81

11.4

10.8

13.2

15.ò

1-82

10.2

9.4

10.5

lo . i

5.4

2-82

8.7

7.8

8.3

7."2

3.6

1.8

3-82

9.6

9.0

9.6

9.1

7 . T

8.2

'T5.ï>

4-82

10.4

1 0 .Ô

10 . 6

ÏÔ.Ç

4.4

1Ö.7

"1575

15.9

1-83

9.Ó

8.5

8.8

8.4

7.1

7.6

9.6

7.Ö

2-83

8.5

7.8

8.0

7.5

6 75 “ "

675"

7 .7

5 .5

585.3
601 .3
622 . 7
630.9
633 . 7

3-63

7.9

774~~

7.6

7.1

6.Ü

5.1

4-85

7.3

6.8

6.9

6.4

5.4

~574 '

6.0

1-84

774

6.9"

7.Ò

6.5

5.5

377

”

656 . 3

T . r

7.0

681.0
678.8

" -T73
"ö .4 ~

669.8

3.3“ '

1.7

4.3

" T . ? " ''

6.2

4.8

2V7~~

■

682 . 2

2.cr
4.5

2.5“

2.7

0.9

■ "4 .4

4.3

' 3. 8

691.4
704.4

7.7

8.5

8.1

8.3

8.0

7.4

7.6

8.3

7.4"'

6.Ö

T.5

9.Ö

1075'

15.7

24.3

3-84

8.6

8.'*"

8.4

8.2

7.5

7.8

6.5

7 .7 "

6.6

7.4

9.1

1Ö.3

15.6

1577

975“

4-84

ST?

8.4

8.6

8.4

7.8

8 .0

8.7

8.0"

7.1

Ö.3

■ 9#4

10.4

12.9

14.7

1 Ö 7 T

8.$

8.5

8.4

8.2

7.7

7.9

8.4

7.8

6.9

8.0

8.9

9.6

11.5

1 2 . 4

7.2

' ' F .T

9.0

' 9 r r

11.7

I T . ?

8.4

9.4

4-82

1-63

2-85

8.6

8.4

8.5

8.3

7.8

3-85

""9.2

9.Ô

9.2

4.0

8.6

" 8 . 9

"svcr

9.4

4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4 — 81

1-82

2-82

8.6

"8.'<r

3-82

INITIAL

GOVERNMENT

PURCHASES
COMPOUNDED

Tff.2 ' T T .D

N»
1
00
W

1
a>

2-84

3-83

74377

8.7

761. 0
780.5

10.7
8. 3

791.9

"5 7 Ö

9.0

8. 8

^7.9"

9.9

12.5

13.3

11.2

11.6

r z .ir

15.T“

20.4

4-83

1-84

2 — 84

3-6 4

4-84

1-35

2-85

810.9
84V. 5

QUARTER

O F GOOOS A N D
ANNUAL RA TE S

SERVICES IN
DF C H A N G E
1

1972

DOLLARS
BILLIONS

TERMINAL
QUARTER

IN ITIAL
4-80

1-81

1.8

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

OF

DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

5-64

4-64

1-85

2 —6 5

5.0

2-81

1-81

QUARTER

286.0
-1 .3

285.1

3-81

2.3

1.0

3.3

4-81

2.5

1.7

3.2

3.1

1-82

2.2

1.5

2.4

2.0

0.8

2-02

1.1

0.5

0.7

-0 .2

-1 .8

-4 .3

3-82

2.1

1.6

2.2

1.9

1.5

1.8

8.3

4-82

3.2

2.9

3.6

3.7

3.8

4.8

9.7

287.4
289.6
290.2
287. 0
292.8
11.1

500.6
244.5"

1-83

1.8

1.4

1.8

1.6

1.3

1.4

3.4

1.0

-8 .1

2-83

1.4

1.0

1.3

1.0

0.6

0.6

1.9

-0 .2

-5 .4

-2 .6

3-83

1.2

0.8

l . l

0.8

0.5

0.4

1.4

-0 .3

-3 .8

-1 .6

-0 .5

292.4
242 . 0

4-83

0.7

0 .4

0.5

0.2

-0 .1

-0 .3

0.4

-1 .1

- 5 .9

-2 .5

-2 .4

-4 .3

1-84

0.8

0.4

0.6

0.3

0.0

-0 .1

0.5

-0.8

- 3 .0

-1 .6

-1 .5

-1 .7

1.0

2-84

1.9

1.7

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.8

2.6

1.8

0 .5

2.1

575“

4.6

4.4

288.

502.1“

2.2

2 .0

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.9

2.2

1.0

1 .7

5 .7 ”

4.Ô

8.1

4-84

2.4

2.2

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.5

3.2

2.6

1.6

1.1

4 .T T

5.0

7.T"

4 .8

5 .6

5 .4

1-85

2.3

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.9

2.4

1.5

2.7

575

4 .2

6 .0

7.3

5 .8

5 .0

<75
5

2-85

2.3

2 .2

2.4

2.3

2.5

2 .4

3.0

y .5

1.7

2.8

5.5

4.1

5.6

5.6

5 .8

5 .2

1.4

3-85

3.2

3.1

3.3

3.3

3 .5

3.5

4.1

5 .8

5 .2

4.4

5.2

5.4

T75~

8.6

6 .7

7 .0

7 .4

i l . l

14.1

4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-63

2-85

3-83

1-84

2-84

3-64

4-84

1-85

2-85

+

w
1
CD

18.6

2 .6




IN ITIA L

4-83

5.4

l l . é

306.1

510.5
510.7

5 .7

313.5

527.5

QUARTER

PREPAREO

BY

FEDERAL

NOVEMBER 20, 179 5
'

17

è

28475”

RESERVE

BANK

OF

S T.

LOUIS

DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS

CWPOONOED ANNUAL RATES ÖP CHANGÉ

TERMINAT
Q U A R T E R ____________________________________________________________________________________
4 -ë l
t-62
2-82
¿ - é r "3-àl
3-82
i - 6 t
4-80
1-81

Ì4.2

2-81

1075“

IN IT IA L QUARTER
4-82

i-63

DOLLARS

2-63

3 - 6 3 ■" 4 - 8 3

_______
2-84“ T - 8 ' 4

"T-5 4 “

______________________________ A N N U A L
' 4 -84 ' 1-85

RATES

1,972.5
7.0

2,öö6.Ö

3 - e r

12.1

11.0

13.3

4-81

10.6

4.4

10.6

2,078.6
6.1

2,109.8

1-82

4.3

8.1

8.5

5.2

4.3

2-82

8.5

7.4

7.5

5 .0

4.5

4 .7

2,132.0

Z,156.8

3-82

8 .i

7.4

t . 5

5.6

5.5'

■6 . I T

7.4

4-82

6.3

7.5

7.6

6 .1

6.1

6.7

7.6

7.8

1-83

7.8

7.1

5.7

6.1

6.5

6.1

6.4“

6.8

6.6

5.$

7.5

7 .2

7.7

7.8

7.8

9.6

11.7

“ ~ 3 .T '

2,195.8
2,237.5
2,261.4

4.3
2,302.9

7.8

7. 1

7.1

6 .0

6.Ö

8.2

7.6

7.6

6 .7

6.8

4-83

874

7.9

7.9

7.2

T . 3 "

7.7

8.2

fl.4

8.5

1Ô.0

11.2

10 . 7

1-84

6.7

8.3

8.-4

7.7

T.~Q~~

8.3

8.9

9.1

9 .4

10.6

IT77

11. 7

12.7

2-84

8.7

8.3

8.4

7.8

7.4

8.4

8.8

9.0

9.2

10.2

10.9

10.7

10.6

8.6

3-é4

8.7

8.3

8.4

7.8

8 .0

8.4

8.8

8.9

4.1

9.9

10.4

10.1

4.9

8.5

8.4

4-84

8.$

8.1

8.2

7.7

7 . è

8.1

8.5

8.6

8.7

9.4

9 .7

9.3

8.9

7.7

7.2

7.7

7.8

y .¿

7.3

7.6

7.8

7.9

7.4

8.3

8.5

779”

7.4

6.1

5.3

3. 7

779“

8.0

7.5

7.6

7.9

8.1

8.2

6.2

8.7

8.Ö

8 .4

8".TT

7.1

6.7

6.2

7.3

7' . 3~~

■5.9

6.9

7.1

7.3

7.3

7.2

7. 5

7. 5

7.0

6.5

5.5

4.9

4. 0

3.4

4.3

—2 . 3

3-31

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

2-83

3-83

4-83

1-34

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85

2-83

1-85

8.1

2-85

8.3

*-0*5

” 7 7 7“

4-80

"

1-81

2-81

”

■

IN ITIA L

¿ *367.4
2,428.6
"27502.2
2,554.3
2,606.4
2,644.5

6. 0
1.6
'

2,654.8

6 73“ ' 1 1 . 2

2,726 .5
2,710.7

QUARTER

DI S P O S A B L E P ER SO NAL INCOME I N 1972 DOLLARS
COMPOUNDED A N N UA L R A T E S OF C HA NG E
IN ITIA L

TE RMINAL
QUARTER
4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

B I L L I O N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RA T ES

QUARTER
2-83

1-83

3-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4-84

1-85

2-85
1,042.5

1-81

5.1

2-81

2.2

-0 .7

3-81

3.7

3.0

6.9

4-81

2 .6

1.7

3.0

-0 .8

1-82

1.8

1.0

1.6

-1 .0

-1 .2

2-82

1.6

0.9

1.4

- 0 .4

-0 .2

Ó.8

1.3

0 .0

0.2

1.0

1,040.7
1,058.1
1,056.0
1,05¿.8
1,054.8
1,057.4

3-82

1.6

1.0

4-82

1.8

1.4

1.7

0 .7

1.1

\ .9

2.4

î . ’T

1-83

1.9

1.5

1.8

0 .9

1.3

1.9

2.3

2.9

2.1

2-83

2.0

1.7

2.0

1.3

1.6

2.2

2.6

3.0

2.7

1.2

1,067.6
i,ô Y 3 .1
1,082.0

3.4

1,1Ó¿.¿

3-83

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.1

2.5

3.1

3.6

4.2

4.3

5.5

7.7

4 -83

3.0

2.8

3.1

2.7

3.2

3.8

4.3

5.0

5.3

6.4

8.0

8.3

1-84

3.4

3.3

3.6

3.3

3.8

4 .4

4.9

5.6

6.0

6.9

8.2

8.4

8.6

2-84

3 .6

3.5

3.8

3.6

4.0

4.6

5.1

5.7

6.0

6.8

7.7

7. T "

7.4

6.3

3-84

3.6

3.5

3.8

3.6

4.0

4.5

5.0

5.5

5.7

6.3

6.9

6.7

6.2

5 ;i

3.9

4-84

3.6

3.5

3.8

3.6

4.0

4.4

4.8

5.2

5 .4

5.9

6.4

6. 1

5.6

4.6

3.7

3.5

1-85

3. *

3.2

'3.5

3.2

3.5

3.'4

4.2

4.5

4 .6

4.9

5.2

4.8

"4 7 T

3.Ô

1.4

Ô.4

2-65

3.6

3.5

3.7

' 3.5

3.*

4 .3 "

4.5

- 4 7 *

5.Ô

5.3

5.5

5.2

4.7

37*

375“

3-85

3.1

3.0

3.2

3.0

3.3

3.6

3.6

4.1

4.1

4.3

474' '

4.Ô

" 3.4

276

4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

4-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

3-83

4-83

1-84




IN ITIA L

2-83

1,124.3
1,147.6
1,165.3

"

1,176.5

“ T 7 5 " ........i . r

2-84

3-84

1,166.7
1,181.9

-175“

1 , 2 0 5 •3

3.2

8.2

0 .6

1.7

—4 . 3

4-84

1-85

2-85

1,192.1

QUARTER

PREPAREO

BY

FEDERAL

NOVEMBER 20, 1485

18

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LOUIS

CORPORATE P R O F U S AFTER TAXES*
CÜMPQÜNÖET)
TERMINAL
QUARTER
4-8 0
1-81
2-81

-14.8

1-81 ~ ^ - 8 T

3 -8 r

1-Ô2

4-81

2-82

9.9

3-fll
“4 - 8 1

A N N U A T ~ R ^ T E 3 n OF

IN ITIAL

—6 . 6

3-82

4-8 2

C HANGE- '
BILLIONS 0F
DOLLARS
ANNUAL R A T E S

(RTARTE*

1— 8 3

2-83

1-54

■ 3-53

2-84

4— 84

3-8 4

i - a r

2-85

1 50 . 2
135.4

^ 4 . 0

13V.4

-1 3 .9 ~ 1 2 .2 T

—8 * 0 ~ - T 3 . 3

-0 .6

135.0

-12

1-82

-2 3 .6 ~-30.3 ^ 2 9 . 0 ' -4 3 .6

2-82

-1 9 .0

-2 3 .8 ^ 2 1 .0 '

IÖ4. 7

—6 3 . 8

- 2 9 . ' S" - 3 7 . 3

:r

-2 Ô .2

-1 7.1

-¿ 0 .4

i-è 3

-1 4 .7

-1 7 .4

- H . 7

2-83

- 6 .t

-8 .4

-4 .5

-¿ .7

-5 .8

3-83

-1 .0

-2 .1

2.3

l . l

3.2

4-83

-1 .3

-2 .2

1.7

0.5

2.Y

-1 7 .2

-23

-22 .IT

iTi
IN
I
1

-1 6 . 5

4.4

0.4

-4 .9

-2 6 .7 “

3— 82
4-82

106 . V

8 i' 7"

-1 1.1

-2 .0

107.Ö
100.8

-2 1 .2

102 . 6

-8 .1

7.3

14.0

15.4

20.9

49.9

1Ò9.3

22.9

25.9

5373

58.8

93.2

78.3

18 . 6

-1 Ô .5 ' -1 9 .7

-T73"

2Ó.3

24.8

40.0

52.9

30.7

-4 .1

123.4
142 . 6
141.1
150.6

"ff.1

3.9

3.1

5.Ö

19.9

21.6

25.6

3 7 .9 ■ 46.8

3TT.4

I T . 5 ““

29.9

2-84

0.7

0.0

'3.5

2.8

4.4

17.4

18.5

21.4

30.5 ”

35.6

2

1#T

7.2

13.3

-1 .1

3-84

-0 .9

- I . 7

1.4

Ô.5

1.8

12.9

13.3

15 .T

2175

24.0

11*7

—0 . 6

0.6

-1 1 .5

150.Z
141. 7

- 2 0 . B

4-84

-1 .0

-1 .7

1.2

0 .4

1.5

11.4

11.7 '

13". Ö

18.3

19.9

9.3

-0 .9

-0 . 1

-S'.4

-TIV 9

-2 .0

1 -Ô 5

-1 .6

-2 .3

0.3

-0 .5

0.5

9 .4

9.4

10.4

14.6

15.6

6.2

—2 . 6

—2 . 3

- ^ .o

- i t ; 5

—6 . 5

-1 0 .9

2-B5

-1 .4

-2 .1

"0.4"

-0 .4

0 . 5 "

b

:t

8.7

9.5

13.2

13.9 "

5.5

-2 : i

-1 .8

-> .1

-8 .5

-4 . 0

-5 .Ö

w
1
00

1-84

-0 .3

-0 .8

1.6

0.9

9.7

9.8

10.6

14.0

14.7

7.3

■w

1.5

-2'.'6

' -2."9“

'2 ;i

3.5

11.6

23.0

4-80

1-81

2-81

3-81

1-82

2-82

3-82

4-82

1-83

4-83

1-84

2-84

3-84

4 -84

1-85

2-85

"T79"

4-81

IN ITIAL
* N ATIO NAL INCOME
P - PRELIMINARY

2— 83

rr

3-83

141.0
137 .0
137.4

1.2“

1 4 4 . 7P

QUARTER

BASIS

PREPARED
NUVtPWbK

BY F E O E R A L
20,
1985

RESERVE

B ANK

OF

HISTORICAL SOURCES O
F
NATIONAL IN M A D PRO UCT ACCO
CO E N
D
UNTS D
ATA
The NIPA estimates for 1929-76 are in The National Income
and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-76: Statistical
Tables (Stock number 003—
010-00101 -1, price $10.00). Estimates for
1977-79 and corrections for earlier years are in the July 1982
SURVEY; estimates for 1980 and corrections for earlier years are in
the July 1983 SURVEY; estimates for 1981-83 are in the July 1984
SURVEY. Estimates for the periods since, appear in subsequent issues
of the monthly Survey of Current Business. These publications are
available from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government
Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402.
For further information, write to the National Income and
Wealth Division (BE-54) Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department
of Comm
erce, Washington, D.C. 20230.




19

ST.

LOUIS

INVENTORIES COMPARED WITH MONTHLY SA L E S *
MANUFACTURING AN TRADE
D

1 . 68

6 8

I

64

I

60

1 . 56

56

I . 52

52
48
44

I . 44

40

I

36

1 .3 2

32

I . 28

28
24

1 . 24
1977

1978

1

1980

«RATIOS BASED O SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA.
N
SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS O BUSINESS RECESSIONS.
F

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

SOURCE: U. S . DEPARTMENT O COMMERCE
F

LATEST DATA PLOTTED: SEPTEMBER PRELIMINARY




PREPARED

20

BY

FEDERAL

RESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LOUIS


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102