Full text of National Economic Trends : November 1982
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nflTionfiL Economic treiids PR E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. LO U IS M O N T H E N D IN G : O otO ber 3 1 , 1982 RELEASED : N o v e m b e r 30 , 1982 O c to b e r a p p a re n tly m a rk e d th e 1 5 th m o n th o f c o n tin u o u s r e c e s s io n fo r th e A f.S . e co n o m y . O f f ic ia l d e s ig n a tio n o f th e re c e s s io n tro u g h a w a it s f u r t h e r e c o n o m ic d e v e lo p m e n ts a s w e ll a s th e ju d g m e n t o f the a r b it e r o f b u sin e ss c y c le s — the N a tio n a l B u re a u o f E c o n o m ic R e s e a r c h . N e v e r t h e le s s , in te rm s o f d u ra tio n , d ep th and d is p e rs io n , th e c u r r e n t r e c e s s io n is r iv a le d o n ly b y th e 1 9 7 3 —7 5 re c e s s io n in the p o s t-W o rld W a r n p e rio d . T h e s e v e r it y o f th e d o w n tu rn c a n be illu s t r a t e d by c o m p a rin g r e c e n t d e c lin e s in p a y r o ll e m p lo y m e n t w ith tre n d s o f the p re v io u s e ig h t y e a rs . T h e a c c o m p a n y in g ta b le s u m m a riz e s the m o v e m e n ts o f p a y r o ll e m p lo y m e n t o v e r s e le c te d p e rio d s s in c e th e b u sin e ss c y c le p e a k o f N o v e m b e r 1 9 7 3 . T h e f ir s t c o lu m n sh o w s the tre n d o f e m p lo y m e n t d u rin g th e p e rio d , w ith the tw o rig h t-h a n d c o lu m n s s u m m a riz in g the e c o n o m y 's s h if t fro m g o o d s-p ro d u c in g a c t iv it ie s to those c la s s if ie d as s e r v ic e -p ro d u c in g . A c o m p a ris o n o f th e se c o n d and th ird c o lu m n s in d ic a t e s th a t, in m ost r e s p e c t s , th e d is t rib u t io n o f e m p lo y m e n t ch a n g e s a c ro s s m a jo r in d u s t r ia l g ro u p s in the c u r r e n t d o w n tu rn is s im ila r to th a t in the 1 9 7 3 -7 5 re c e s s io n . W ith a fe w e x c e p t io n s , e m p lo y m e n t d e c lin e s in g o o d s-p ro d u c in g in d u s t rie s h ave b een ab o u t the sa m e in th e c u rr e n t re c e s s io n a s in 1 9 7 3 - 7 5 . T h e re c e n t d e c lin e in toteil e m p lo y m e n t has b ee n g re a t e r, h o w e v e r, m a in ly b e c a u s e o f d e c lin e s in g o v e rn m e n t e m p lo y m e n t an d a s lo w e r ra te o f in c re a s e in th e s e r v ic e s s e c t o r . — K e it h M . C a r ls o n T R E N D S IN P A Y R O L L E M P L O Y M E N T T re n d * R e c e s s io n p e rio d * 1 1 /1 9 7 3 7 /1 9 8 1 1 1 /1 9 7 3 to to to 7 /1 9 8 1 1 0 /1 9 8 2 3 /1 9 7 5 T o ta l G o o d s-p ro d u c in g M in in g C o n s t r u c tio n M a n u fa c tu rin g D u ra b le s N o n d u ra b le s S e r v ic e -p ro d u c in g T r a n s p o r t a t io n and p u b lic u t ilit ie s W h o le s a le and r e t a il tra d e F in a n c e , in s u ra n c e and r e a l e s ta te S e r v ic e s G o v e rn m e n t 2.1% -2 .2 % -1 .4 % P e r c e n t o f t o ta l 7 /1 9 8 1 1 1 /1 9 7 3 100.0% 100.0% 0.3 7 .7 0.1 0.0 0.2 - 0 .3 -7 .7 -6 .9 -5 .9 -8 .1 - 1 0 .3 -4 .7 - 8 .3 9.4 - 1 1 .6 -8 .2 -8 .6 -7 .5 28.1 1.3 4.6 2 2 .3 13.4 8.9 32.4 0.8 5.3 26.2 15.5 10.7 2.9 1.2 0.0 - 2 .3 1.8 - 2 .3 7 1 .9 5 .7 6 7.6 6.0 2 .7 - 0 .7 0.2 22.6 21.6 3 .5 0.8 1.0 5.8 5.3 4 .7 1.8 2.1 - 1 .2 3 .5 3.9 20.4 1 7 .5 16.8 17.8 ♦ C o m p o u n d e d a n n u a l r a t e s o f c h a n g e . N o v e m b e r 1 9 7 3 an d J u ly 1981 a re b u sin e ss c y c le p eak s; M a rc h 1 9 75 is a b u sin e ss c y c le tro u g h and O c to b e r 1982 is the m ost r e c e n t d a te f o r w h ic h d a ta a re a v a ila b le . T O T A L C I V I L I A N EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R AT ES OF CHANGE TERMINAL ______________________ _________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH____________________ _______________________________ ________________ 3-81 4-81 THOUSANDS OF MONT H 4-81 5-81 6-81 7-81 8-81 9-81 10-81 11-81 1- 82 12-81 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-82 7-82 8-8 2 PERSONS 9-82 5.8 100, ,878 1 01 ,»045 5-81 3.9 2.0 6-81 0.1 -2.6 -7.1 7-81 1.4 -0.1 -1.1 5.3 8-81 1.0 -0.1 -0.8 2.5 -0.3 9-81 -0.3 -1.5 -2.3 -0.7 -3.6 -6.7 100, ,430 10 0 , , 064 10 0, , 840 100,258 10 0, , 343 10-81 -0.1 -1.1 -1.7 -0.3 -2.1 -2.9 1.0 11-81 -0.3 -1.2 -1.7 -0.6 -2.0 -2.6 -0.5 -2.0 12-81 -1.1 -1.9 -2.4 -1.6 -3.0 -3.6 -2.5 -4.3 -6.5 1-82 -1.0 -1.7 -2.2 -1.4 -2.5 -3.0 -2.0 -3.0 -3.5 -0.4 2-82 -0.9 -1.5 -1.9 -1.3 -2.2 -2.5 -1.6 -2.2 -2.3 -0. 1 -1.8 -1.2 -2.0 -2.3 -1.5 -2.0 -2.0 -0.5 -0. 5 -1.2 1 0 0 , 17 Z 99, 613 9 9 , 581 99 , 590 0. 1 9 9 , 492 3-82 -0.9 -1.5 4-82 -1.0 -1.5 -1.8 -1.3 -2.0 -2.2 -1.6 -2.0 -2.0 -0.8 -1.0 -1.5 -1.8 5-82 -0.2 -0.7 -0.9 -0.3 -0.9 -1.0 -0.2 -0.4 -0.1 1.2 1.6 2.1 3.8 9.8 6-82 -0.5 -0.9 -1.2 -0.7 -1.2 -1.3 -0.7 -0.9 -0.7 0.3 0.4 0.5 1.1 2.6 -4. 1 9 9 , 34 0 10 0 , 11 7 9 9 , 764 7-82 -0.5 -0.9 -1. 1 -0.6 -1. 1 -1.2 —0 . 6 -0.8 -0. 7 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.7 1.6 -2.3 -0.4 8-82 -0.4 -0.8 -1.0 -0. 5 -0.9 -1.0 -0.5 —0 . 6 -0.4 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.8 1.5 -1.1 0.5 9-82 -0.5 -0.8 -1.0 -0.6 -1.0 -1.0 -0.5 -0.7 -0.5 0. 1 0. 2 0.2 0.5 0.9 -1.2 -0.2 -0. 1 -1.4 10-82 —0 . 8 -1.2 -1.4 -1.0 -1.4 -1.5 -1.1 -4.2 -1.2 -0.6 -0. 7 -0.7 -0.7 -0.5 -2.4 -2.0 -2.5 -4.4 -7.3 3-81 W T l 5^TÏ 6-81 7-81 8-8 1 9-81 10-81 11-81 12-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-82 7-82 8-8 2 9-82 INITIAL 9 9 , 732 9 9 , 8 39 1.3 99 ? 720 9 9 , 093 MONTH P A Y R O L L EMPLOYMENT C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF CHANGE T E R M I N A L _____________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONT H________________________________________________________________________________ T h U U S a NOS MONTH ÜF P E RS ONS 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-82 7-8 2 8-82 9-82 9-81 10-81 11-81 12 -8 1 3-81 4-81 5-81 6-81 7-81 8-81 91 , 0 9 9 4-81 1.1 5-81 0.8 0.4 6-81 1.2 1.2 91 ►131 91 , 2 8 6 2.1 91 , 3 9 6 7-81 1.3 1.3 1.8 1.5 8-81 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.2 -1.0 9-81 0.8 0.7 0.8 0.3 -0.2 0.5 10-81 0.4 0.3 0.2 -0.2 -0.8 -0.6 11-81 -0.0 -0.2 -0.3 -0.8 -1.3 -1.4 -2.4 -3.0 12-81 -0.5 -0.8 -0.9 -1.4 -2.0 -2.2 -3.1 -3.8 -4.6 1-82 -0.7 -0.9 -1.1 -1.5 -2.0 -2.3 -2.9 -3.3 -3.5 -2.4 -0.0 91 f 3 2 2 9 1 ,, 3 6 3 9 1 ►2 2 4 -1.8 90, r99 6 90, , 6 4 2 90, , 4 6 0 -0.7 -0.8 -1.0 -1 .4 -1.8 -1.9 -2.5 -2.3 -1.2 3-82 -0.8 -1.0 -1.1 -1.4 -1.8 -1.9 -2.3 -2.4 -2.3 -1.5 -1.0 -2.0 4-82 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 -1.6 -1.9 -2.0 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -1.8 -1.7 -2.5 -2.9 5-82 -0.8 -0.9 -1.1 -1.3 -1.6 -1.7 -2.0 -2.0 -1.8 -1.3 -1.0 -1.3 -0.9 1.1 6-82 -1.0 -1.2 -1.3 -1 .6 -1.9 -1.9 -2.2 -2.3 -2.2 -1.8 -1.6 -2.0 -2.0 -1.6 -4.3 7-82 -1.2 -1 .4 -1.5 -1.8 -2.0 -2.1 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -2. 1 -2.0 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 —4 . 1 —4 . 0 8-82 -1.3 -1.5 -1.6 -1.9 -2.1 -2.2 -2.4 -2.2 -2.2 -2.5 -2.6 -2.5 -3.7 -3. 5 -2.1 -2. 1 -2.4 -2.5 -2.4 -3.2 -2.9 -2.3 -1.7 -2.3 -2.5 -2.6 -2.6 -3.3 -3.0 -2.7 -2.6 -3.5 1-82 2-82 3- 82 4-82 5-82 6-8 2 7-82 8-8 2 9-82 <M 1 2-82 -2.4 -2.5 9-82 -1.3 -1.5 -1.6 -1.8 -2. 1 -2.2 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 10-82 -1.5 -1.6 -1.7 -1.9 -2.2 -2.3 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -2.3 3- 81 4-81 5-81 6-81 7-81 8-81 9-81 10-81 11-81 12-81 INITIAL 90, , 4 5 9 9 0 ,, 3 0 4 90,083 9 0 , , 166 89, , 83 9 8 9 , , t>35 -2.9 8 9 ,►3 1 2 8 9 , ►18 8 P 8 8 ,, 9 2 5 P MO NT H P - P REL IM INA RY PftÊPÀfttÔ BY ÉÉÔÉkAl *éSÉÜV'fc_ BANK OF ¿T. LÒui S NOVEMBER 5 , 2 1982 EM PLO YM EN T RATIO SCALE M ILLIO N S OF 1974 RATIO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PERSONS 1 97 5 1976 1977 197 8 M IL L IONS 1979 198 0 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE LATEST PLOTTEDt DATA ANNUAL RATES Of OCTOBER CHANGE FOR PERIOD S 1981 SCALE PERSONS 1982 U .S .D E P A R TM E N T OF LABOR . LO U IS IN D IC A TE D . PR ELIM INARY PREPARED U N E M P LO Y M E N T PERCENT OF S E A S O N A L L Y BY FEDERAL RESERVE BA NK OF S RATE A D J U S T E D PERCENT 11.0 10. 10.( 9. C 8. ( 6. ( > . .( SOURCE: PERCENT LATEST OF DATA C IV IL IA N PLOTTED: LABOR U .S . DEPARTMENT OF LABOR FORCE OCTOBER PR EPARED BY FE D E R A L R ES E R V E BANK OF S . L O U IS 3 C O N S U M E R PRICE IMOEX FOR ALL U R B A N C O N S U M E R S , S E A S O N A L L Y A O J U S T E D _________________ ____ C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S Q F C H A N G E ______________________ T E R M IN A L M ON TH IN IT IA L 3 - 9 1 ____ 4 - 9 1 5 - 8 ,1____ 6 - & 1 ____ 1 - 9 1 ____ 1__________ 9 - 9 1 1 0 -8 1 1 1 -9 1 1967*100 M ONTH 1 2 - 9 1 ____ 1 ~ 9 2 ____ ¿ - 9 2 ____3 - 9 2 ____ 4 - 9 2 ____ 5 - 9 2 ____ 6 - 8 2 7 -8 2 9 -8 2 9 -8 2 7,5____ 9.« 9 5 -9 1 _ *1 ____ 9 . a 6 - 9 L_ 9 t7 7 -9 1 I l t3 _9^8___11*0 -9-6-L 9*3 l l t 9 ___14»6 ¿73*7 U f 3 __________ 10*1 2 7 5 .9 9-91____ 15^4___L U 5 __________________ LZ^Q___13*9_______ 9 « 7 ____ 1 0 * 5 1 0 -9 1 10*6 9 *_8_ _ llr $ l 12-81 J L i Z ____ 3 * 5 9 .4 7 .7 ¿90.1 _9_*_9____ £ * £ ____ Sbt4____ 8 .0 7-, 5 ^281*3 5 .4 _JU2____ Z*2 ____ ^ 6 .6 6*3 6 .0 ____ 4 .8 ±s£____ ±±1____ 3 . 5 3 .0 5*3 4 ,6 3 + 2 ______ ____________ L t l ______ U P -0 * 2 -3 * 3 5 .0 4 .4 3 .2 0 .8 - 0 . 2 J L f O ____ 6_*7____ 6 * 5 ____ 5 * 7 5*3 4 * 2 ____ ft±l____ 2jlI____ 3 * 5 ____ ^ * 5 ____ 2 ^ 7 ____ 7 ^ 4 J L t l ______ L l 4 ______1 * 2 ______ L a ______ 6 » 4 6 *0 5 * 2 ______ 5 ^ 2 ______ 5 ^ 0 ______ 5 ^ 1 ______ J L l5____ 1*4____ ________7*1____ ^ -9,-92 3 .7 2 .9 5t4 2 .1 _ ^ 4 ____ ^ 1 .5 6t0 5,4 5*9 5 * 2 ______ 5 * 2 ______ 5 * 1 ______ 5 _ a 6 t ? ______ 6 * _ 9 ______ 6 , 1 ______ 6 * ^ ______ 5 * 9 5*6 4 * 9 ______ 4 * 9 , .¿«9 5*6 5 * 0 ______ 5 * _ 0______ 4 * 5 ______4 * 5 ______ 5 * 1 7-81 8-81 .10-92 . 3-81 4-81 5-81 6-81 9-81 10-81 3 .0 1L tSL. J ? ^ 3 ____ 1 2 * 7 ____ 1 3 , 3 ____ 5_*4____ 5j J ____ 6^ 3____ 9^ 9___ 10 *9 6 * 9 ______ 6 * 2 7 . 0 ______ L a ______ 7 * 0 9 -9 2 ____6*1 4 .3 294*1 3 .2 6t6 7 «6 5 .5 4*5 4-92 ..7-92 278 .9 9 * 5 ______ 5 * _ 3 . 6 .0 3 - 9 2 ________6 * 7 ______ 6 * 9 _ 6 -9 2 9 »7 9 ,1 9*7 .2 ~ 9 2 1 0 ,9 4 . 9 ______ ^ * 0 ______ 5 * 2 11-81 12-81 5 .3 1-82 IN IT IA L 1 0 t2 _____L , 7 _____9 ^ 9 ____ 7 , 9 2-82 ____6 * 1 ______ 7 * 5 PRO D U C ER P R IC E IN D E X , 6 . 6 ______ 1 * 2 ______ 6 * 3 ______ 4 * 6 3-82 4-62 2 9 2 *2 5-82 3*9 6-82 7-82 5 .9 _ 8-82 9-82 M O N TH F IN IS H E D ANNUAL IN IT IA L 7»3 £*3____ 3,3 . 6 * 4 ______ 4 * 2 ______ 2 . 7 ______ 2 . 1 PREPA RED N O VEM BER ________________________ C O M P O U N D ED 2 9 9 .7 GOODS - RATES OF M ON TH SEA SO N A LLY 8Y F E D E R A L 23 * 1982 RESERVE BANK OF ST. L O U IS ____ A D JU S T E D * C H A N G E ___________________ _ MONTH * 1 00 3-81 4-81 5-81 6-81 7-81 8-81 9-81 10-91 11-81 12-81 1-92 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-82 7-82 8-82 9-82 2 6 8 .2 1 1 .9 5-81 7 .2 2 .7 6-81 7 .1 4 .8 2 6 8 .8 6 .9 2 7 0 .3 2 7 1 .3 7-81 6 .5 4 .7 5 .7 4 .5 9-81 5 .9 4 ,4 5 .0 4 .1 3 ,6 9-81 5 ,3 4 .0 4 .3 3 ,4 2 .9 2 .2 10-81 5 .5 4 .5 4 .9 4 .4 4 .3 4 .7 7 .3 2 7 2 .1 2 7 2 .6 2 7 4 .2 2 7 5 .5 11-81 5 .6 4 .7 5 .0 4 .7 4 .7 5 .1 6 .6 5 .8 12-81 5 .4 4 .6 4 .8 4 .5 4 .5 4 .7 5 .5 4 .7 3 .5 1-82 5 .5 4 .8 5 .1 4 .8 4 .8 5 .1 5 .8 5 .4 5 .1 2 7 6 .3 6 .7 2 7 7 .8 2-82 4 .8 4 .1 4 .2 3 .9 3 .8 3 .9 4 .2 3 .4 2 .6 2 .2 -2. 1 3-92 4 ,2 3 .5 3 .6 3 .3 3 ,1 3 .0 3 .2 2 ,4 1 ,5 0 .9 - 1 .9 - 1 .7 4-82 4 .0 3 .3 3 .4 3 .0 2 .9 2 .8 2 .8 2 .1 1 .4 0 .9 - 1 .0 - 0 .4 0 .9 5-92 3 .6 3 ,0 2 .5 2 .4 2 ,4 1 ,7 no 0 *5 - 1 .0 - 0 .6 0 .0 6-82 4 ,2 3 .7 3 .7 3 *5 3 .4 3 .4 3 .5 3 .0 2 .6 2 .5 1 .6 2 .6 4 .1 5 .8 1 2 .8 7-82 4 .4 3 ,9 4 .0 3 .8 3 .7 3 .7 3 .8 3 .5 3 .2 3 .1 2 .5 3 .5 4 .8 6 .2 9 .9 7 .1 8-82 4 .6 4 .1 4 .2 * ,.0 4 .0 4 .0 4 .2 3 .9 3 .6 3 .7 3. 2 4 .2 5 .4 6 .5 9 .1 7 .3 ___ 7 . 5 9-82 4 .2 3 .8 3 .8 3 .6 3 .6 3 .6 3 .7 3 .3 3. 1 3 .1 2 .6 3 .3 4 .2 4 .8 6 .3 4 .2 2 *8 - 1 .7 10-82 4 .3 3 .9 3 .9 3 .8 3 .7 3 .7 3 .8 3 .5 3 .3 3 .3 2 .9 3 .6 4 .4 5 .0 6 .2 4 .6 3 .7 1 .9 5 .7 3-81 4-81 5-81 6-81 7-81 8-81 9-81 10-81 11-81 12-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-82 7-82 8-82 9-82 »D A T A FO R FO U R 3 .0 MONTHS AGO 2 .7 R E V IS E D TO REFLECT LATE IN IT IA L R E P O R T IN G 2 7 7 .3 2 7 6 .9 2 7 7 .1 2 7 6 .9 - 0 .9 2 7 9 .7 2 8 1 .3 2 8 3 .0 2 8 2 .6 2 8 3 .9 M O N TH PREPARED BY FED ERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . NOVEMBER 1 6 , 1982 L O U IS RATIO PR S CA L E 1967-100 I C E S ÌATIO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED SCALt I 9 6 7 - I 00 I0 0 1 OC 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 CPI-U FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INDICATED LATEST DATA PLOTTEOt OCTOBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE SANK OF < R A T IO P R O D U C E R SC ALE P R I C E S r a t i o PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6E FOR PERIODS INDICATED LATEST DATA PLOTTED, OCTOBER P RE P AR E D BY F E D E R A L R ES E R V E BANK OF 5 LOUli s c a l e PRODUCER PR IC E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D CONSUMER FOODS - SEASONALLY AD J U S T ED * ____________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANGE__________________________ IN IT IA L T E R M IN A L M ONTH 3-91 4-81 5-81 6-81 8-81 7-81 9-81 10-81 11-81 1967 M ON TH 12-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-82 7-8 2 8-82 2 5 2 .7 1 .9 4-81 2 5 3 .3 5-81 2 .4 2 .9 6-81 3 .5 4 .4 5 .8 7-81 5 .2 6 .3 8 .1 1 0 .4 2 5 4 .5 2 5 6 .6 2 5 6 .8 8-81 4 .3 4 .9 5 .6 5 .5 0 .9 9-81 2 .6 2 .7 2 .6 1 .6 - 2 .5 - 5 .9 10-81 1 .8 1 .8 1 .6 0 .6 - 2 .5 -4. 1 2 5 5 .5 2 5 5 .0 - 2 .3 2 5 3 .2 11-81 0 ,5 0 .3 - 0 .1 - 1 .2 - 3 .9 - 5 .5 - 5 .3 - 8 .1 12-81 0 .4 0 .2 - 0 .2 - 1 .2 - 3 .3 —4 . 4 - 3 .9 —4 . 6 - 0 .9 1-82 1 .7 1 .7 1 .5 0 .9 - 0 .5 - 0 .8 0 .5 1 .4 6 .6 1 4 .7 2-82 2 .1 2 ,1 2 .0 1 .5 0 .3 0 .2 1 .5 2 .5 6 .3 1 0 .1 5 .8 3-82 1 .8 1 .8 1 .7 1 .2 0 .1 0 .0 1 .0 1 .7 4 .3 6 .1 2 ,1 -1 .4 4-82 3 .2 3 .3 3 .4 3 .1 2 .3 2 .5 3 .8 4 .8 7 *7 9 *9 8 .4 9 *7 2 5 3 .0 2 5 5 .9 2 5 7 .1 2 5 6 .8 2 6 1 .1 2 2 .1 5-82 3 .5 3 .6 3 .7 3 .5 2 .9 3 .1 4 .3 5 .2 7 ,6 9 .4 8 .2 9 .0 1 4 *6 7 .6 6-82 3 *7 3 t8 3»? 3 *7 3» 1 3 ,3 4 ,4 5 *3 7 *4 8 .8 7 .7 8 .1 1 1 .5 6 .6 7-82 2 .3 2 .3 2 .3 2 .0 1 .3 1 .4 2 .1 2 .6 4 .1 4 .8 3 .2 2 .7 3 .8 - 1 .7 —6 . 0 - 1 6 .4 1 .4 3 .0 - 7 .9 1 .4 2 6 2 *7 5 *6 2 6 3 .9 2 6 0 .0 8-82 2 .2 2 .2 2 .2 2 .0 1 .3 2 .1 2 .5 3 *8 4 *4 2 .5 3 .3 - 0 .9 - 3 .6 9-82 1 .7 1 .7 1 .7 1 .4 0 .8 0 .8 1 .3 1 .7 2 .7 3 .1 1 .8 1 .2 1 .6 - 2 .0 - 4 .3 - 7 .4 - 2 .5 - 6 .3 10-82 1 .5 1 .5 1 .4 1 .2 0 .6 0 .6 1 .1 1 .4 2 .3 2 .6 1 .4 0 .8 1 .1 - 2 .0 - 3 .8 - 6 .0 - 2 .3 -4. 1 - 1 .8 3-81 4-81 5-81 6-81 7-81 8-81 9-81 10-81 11-81 12-81 3-82 4-82 5-82 6-82 7-82 8-82 9-82 8-62 9-82 *O ATA FO R FO U R M ONTHS AGO R E V IS E D TO PRO O U C ER 4-81 1-82 IN IT IA L R E P O R T IN G REFLECT LA TE P R IC E IN D E X » 8-81 9-81 F IN IS H E D 4-81 5-81 6-81 7-81 10-81 11-81 2-8 2 2 6 0 .3 2 5 8 .9 2 5 8 .5 M ON TH G O O DS» IN IT IA L T E R M IN A L M ON TH 3-81 E X C L U D IN G FO O O S - SEASO N ALLY A D JU S T E D * 1967 M ONTH 12-81 1-8 2 2-82 3-82 4-82 3-8 2 6-82 7-82 «= 1 0 0 2 7 1 .5 1 4 .8 2 7 2 .0 5-81 8 .3 2 .2 6-81 8 .1 5 .0 7 .8 7-81 6 .7 4 .2 5 .2 2 7 3 .7 2 .7 2 7 4 .3 8-81 6 .2 4 .1 4 .8 3 .3 4 .0 9-81 6 .1 4 .4 4 *9 4 .0 4 .7 5 .4 10-81 6 .6 5 .3 5 .9 5 .5 6 .4 7 .6 1 0 .0 2 7 5 .2 2 7 6 .4 2 7 8 .6 11-81 7 .1 6 .0 6 .7 6 .4 7 .4 8 .5 1 0 .2 1 0 .4 12-81 6 .8 5 .8 6 .3 6 .1 6 .8 7 .5 8 .2 7 .3 4 .4 1-82 6 .6 5 .7 6 .1 5 .9 6 .4 6 .9 7 .3 6 .5 4 .6 4 .8 5 .5 4 .7 4 .9 4 .6 4 .9 5 .0 4 .9 3 .7 1 .6 0 .2 2-82 = 100 9-82 2 8 0 .9 2 8 1 .9 2 8 3 .0 —4 . 2 2 8 2 .0 3-82 4 ,9 4 *1 4 .3 3 .9 4 .0 4 .0 3 *9 2 *6 0 *7 - 0 .4 - 2 .9 -It.?... 4-82 ^ *2 3 *3 3 .4 3 *0 3 .0 2 .9 2 *6 1 *4 - 0 .3 -1 *5 - 3 .5 - 3 .1 2 8 0 .5 5-82 3 *6 2 *8 2 .9 2 *4 2 *4 2 .2 1 *9 0 *7 -0 *8 -1 *8 -3 *4 -3 *1 2 7 9 .8 6-82 4 .3 3 *6 3 .7 3 *4 3 *5 3 .4 3 *2 2 *4 1 *3 0 *8 0 .0 1 *1 2 *0 5 *5 1 4 *6 <N CO 1 I- 5 .0 4 .4 4 .5 4 .3 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 3 .8 3 .0 2 .a 2 .4 3 .8 5 .2 8 .7 1 5 .0 1 5 .4 8-82 5 .2 4 .7 4 .8 4 .6 4 .8 4 .8 4 .8 4 .3 3 .6 3 .5 3 .4 4 .7 6 *0 8 .8 1 3 .0 1 2 .2 9 *2 9-82 4 .9 4 .4 4 .5 4. 3 4 .4 4 .4 4 .3 3 .8 3 .2 3 .1 2 .9 3 .9 4 .9 6 .9 9 *5 7 .9 4 .3 - 0 .4 5. 1 4 .6 4 .7 4 .5 4 .6 4 .7 4 .6 4 .2 3 .7 3 .6 3 .5 4 .4 5 .4 7 .1 9 .2 7 .9 5 .6 3 .8 4 —8 1 5-81 6-81 7-81 8-81 9-81 10-81 11-81 12-81 1-82 2-82 3-62 4-62 5-82 6-62 7-82 8-62 10-82 3-81 »D A T A FO R FO U R M ONTHS AGO R E V IS E D TO REFLEC T LATE IN IT IA L R E P O R T IN G 2 8 1 .6 -3 *0 . 2 8 3 *0 2 8 6 .4 2 8 8 .5 2 8 8 .4 8 .2 2 9 0 .3 9-6 2 M O N TH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* NOVEMBER 1 6 , 1982 L O U IS INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION SCALE RATIO SEASONALLY i 9 6 7 - 1 0 0 PERCENTAGES a re ANNUAL '.ATEST DATA PLOTTED: ADJ USTED RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIO D S INDICATED. OCTOBER PR ELIM IN A RY PREPARED BY FEO ERA l RESERVE BANK OF ST. INDUSTRIAL COMPOUNDED A NNU AL INITIAL TERMINAL 3-81 4-81 4-81 7-81 8-61 9-81 10-81 11-81 1967 MONTH 1-82 12-81 2-8 2 3-82 5-<L2_ 5 —8 2 6-82 7-82 4.0 7-81 3.6 5.4 8-81 = 100 8-82 152.' b .‘ 2.1 152.9 1 .6 _ 4*8 8 . 1 2.Ç _ ÄiA 153.' 1 53 -2.3 —0 « 5 -2.1 -3.4 -8.6 -14.6 -3.4 -3.7 -5.6 -7.3 -11.9 -16.3 149.1 -5.7 -6.2 -8.2 -10.0 -14.1 -17.7 -19.2 12-81 -7.6 -8.3 -10.2 -12.0 -15.6 -18.6 -19.9 -20.9 -21.4 1-82 -8.9 - V. 7 -11.6 -13.3 -16.4 -19.0 -20. 1 -20.7 -20.9 -20.4 2-82 —6 . 6 -7.1 -8.5 -9.6 -11.9 -13.4 -13.2 -12.0 -9.0 -2.1 —6 . 8 -7.3 146 . 3 -8.6 -9.6 -11.7 -12.9 -12.6 -11.5 -9. 1 143.4 140.7 142.9 20.5 4.3 -4.7 141.7 -9.6 140.2 4-82 -7.2 -7.7 -8.9 -9.9 -11.7 -12.8 -12.5 -11.6 -9.7 -6.5 -1.4 -10.8 -12.0 5-82 -7.3 -7.7 -8.8 -9.7 -11.3 -12.3 -12.0 -11.1 -9.5 -6.9 -3. 2 -10.0 -10.1 -8.2 6-82 -7.1 -7.5 -8.5 -9.3 -10.7 -11.5 -11.2 -10.3 -8.7 -6.4 -3.4 -8.6 -8.2 -6.3 -4.2 139.2 138.7 -9. 1 -7.6 -5.4 -¿.7 —6 . 7 —6 . 0 -3.9 -1.7 0*9 -8.5 -7. 1 -5.2 -2.8 —6 . 2 -5.5 -3.8 -2.3 1.3 3.' -9.4 -8.5 -7. 3 -5.5 -3. 5 -6.5 —6 . 0 -4.7 -3.8 —3 . 7 -5.9 -8. 3 -9. 7 -9.4 -8.6 -7.4 -5.9 —4 . 1 -6.8 -6.4 -5 .5 -4.9 5. Î 7.0 8.8 8 -8 1 9 -8 1 1 0 -8 1 11-81 12-81 1 -8 2 2-82 3-82 4 -8 2 5 -82 6 -82 7 -8 2 8 -8 2 7-82 -6.6 -7.0 -7.9 -8.5 -9.8 -10.5 -10.0 8-82 —6 . 4 —6 . 7 -7.6 -8.2 -9. 3 -9.9 -9.5 9-82 -6.6 -6.8 -7.6 -8.2 -9. 3 -9.8 10-82 -6. 7 -7.0 -7.7 -8. 3 -9. 3 -81 5-81 6 -81 7 -81 IN ITIA L 138 .6 138.4 >>-82 MONTH P - P R EL IM IN A R Y . 151.6 -18.1 1 IS) o -0.7 11-81 3-82 PRODUCTION R A T E S OF C H A N G E 15 1 . ° 5-81 9-81 . 6-8 1 LO U IS -1.6 6-81 10-81 5-81 SCALE 19 6 7 - 1 0 0 PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE NOVEMBER 1 6 , 1982 7 BANK LF PERSONAL R A T I O S CAL E TRILLIO NS INCOME R A T I O SCAL E MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES OF DOLLARS T R I L L I ONS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ? OF OOLLARS 1 u.C 2.8 2.7 2.6 */J. 4 X y S *5- < c * 6208 / / ^ ' 2.5 2.4 2.? // 2. ; y 2. 2.C y /J * y „ j v / /s y /l .C y .( / ?> * X \ \ 97 i ♦ 1 1975 * ♦ X 1 t 1978 1977 1976 1979 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE '.A T E S T PLOTTEO: DATA ANNUAL RATES OCTOBER OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS ♦ 1981 DEPARTMENT 0.< 1982 OF COMM ERC E PR ELIM INARY CO M PO U N D ED BY P E R S O N A L IN C O M E ANNUAL R A T ES O f IN IT IA L 3 - 8 1 ____4 - 8 1 ____ !> - a i____ 6 - 3 1 ____ 1=10____ O - h J ____ 9 - B 1 U .S . $ IN DICATEO. PREPARED T E R M IN A L M O N TH * $ § * % ♦ ♦ 1980 1 Q - B 1 .. 1 1 - 8 1 FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S . LO U IS CHANGE b l L L l O N S OF D O L L A R S ... ANNUAL R A T ES M ON TH L 2 r a i ____ I = 3 2 ____2 = 3 2 ____3 - 8 2 ___ 4 - 8 2 ____5 - 8 2 ___ 6 - S 2 ____2 = 3 2 - I»364^ 4-81 5 - 8 1 _______ 1 ,2 2*379.1 Ijt l 2 t3 9 8 . 4 J L - a J _______ ___________________ I Q , 2 2 * 4 3 6 .3 2,4*9.4 9-81 10-81 1 1 .1 1 2 .0 1 3 .1 10* 1 10. t 1 1 .3 1 1 .5 ? ,9 10 .3 1 0 .4 8 .6 8 .7 8 .4 6 . 1 11-81 12-81 8 «*t 1 4 .1 1 0 .9 8 .6 . 2 .4 7 B .6 9 .7 6 .9 _ 2 » 4 8 7 .2 4 .2 6 .6 5 .0 4 .7 3. 1 _ 2.499*0 5 .8 2 .5 - 0 .7 2 -> .4 9 7 .6 1-82 7 f6 7 .7 7 ,7 7 .3 5 .2 3 .9 2 .5 1 .9 0 .0 0 *7 2-82 7 ,5 7 .6 7 .6 7 .3 5 .5 4 .5 3 .4 3 .2 2 .4 4 .0 7 .3 3-82 7 .1 7 .1 7 .1 6 .7 5 .1 4 .1 3 .3 3 .1 2 .4 3 .4 4 .8 2 .3 4-82 7 .2 7 ,2 7 .2 6 ,V 5 .5 4 .7 4 .0 3 .9 3 .5 4 .6 6 .0 5 .3 8 .4 5-82 7 .4 7 .5 7 .4 7 .2 5 .9 5 .3 4 .7 4 .8 4 .6 5 .7 7 .0 6 .9 9 .3 .LO .2 6-82 7 .2 7 .3 7 .2 7 .0 5 .8 5 .2 4. 7 4 .8 4 .7 5 .6 6 .6 6 .4 7 .8 7 .5 7-82 7 .3 7 ,6 7 .0 7 .4 6 .3 5 .8 5 .4 5 .6 5 .5 6 .5 7 .4 7 .5 8 .8 8-82 7 ,2 7 .3 7 .2 7 .C 6 .0 5 .5 5 .2 5 .3 5 .2 6 .0 6 .7 6 .6 J.5 _ 1 * 3 ., 5 .2 9-82 7 .0 7 .0 6 . V 6 .7 5 .8 5 .3 5 .0 5 .0 5 .0 5 .6 6 .2 6 .1 6 .7 6.4 5.4 5.6 .1 0 - 8 2 7 .1 7 .1 7 .1 6 .9 6 .0 5 .6 5 .3 5 .4 5 .3 5 .9 6 ,5 6 .5 6.t £___ Jfejt-2 >-*i 3-81 4-81 5-81 6-81 7-81 8-81 9-81 10-81 11-81 12-81 1-82 2-82 5-82 6-82 IN IT IA L 2 * 4 9 9 .1 2*^i^a 2 ,5 1 8 .6 _ 7 ,1 3-82 2*53?.5 _ 4-82 2_,556.2 2,566.3 4 .8 ¿.8 M ON TH p - PR ELIMINARY PREPARED 8 Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . NOVEMBER 1 8 , 1982 8 L O U IS RETAIL RATIO SA LES SCALE B ILLIO N S RATIO OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY AOJUSTED BILLIO N S OF SCALE DOLLARS SOURCE: U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: SEPTEMBER, OCTOBER ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS RETAIL SALES COHPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE ___ TERMINAL_____________________________________________________________ INITIAL MONTH_____________________________________________________________MILLIONS OF MONTH DOLLARS 3-81 4-81 5-61 6-81 7-81 8-61 9-81 10-81 11-81 12-61 1-82 2-62 3-82 4-62 5-62 6-82 7-82 6-82 9-82 4 -8 1 1*9 5-61 1 *6 86.263 1*4 86.361 87.299 6 -61 5 .6 7 .4 13.8 7-61 4*1 4*9 6 .6 -0 *1 87.292 8-61 5*2 6 .0 7 .6 4*6 9*6 9 -61 4 .0 4 .4 5.2 2 .4 3 .7 10-61 0 .6 0 .3 0*1 11-61 1 +1 0 .9 12-61 0 .7 1-62 2 -6 2 87.961 -1 .9 87.823 - 3 .0 -4 * 0 -1 0*1 - 1 7 .7 86.413 0*9 - 1 .5 - 1 .9 - 5 .5 -7 *2 4*5 0 .5 0*4 -1 *7 - 2 .0 -4 * 7 - 5 .6 1*1 - 1 .1 -1 *5 -1 * 8 -3 * 9 -4 *5 - 7 .1 - 6 .3 -5 .0 1.9 1 .9 2*0 0*6 0*7 -0 .7 -0 +5 4 .4 86.733 86.572 -2 *2 -9+4 -1 6 .0 4*3 7 .7 85.320 87.654 36+2 3 -62 1*3 1*3 1*3 -0 .0 -0 *0 -1 .3 - 1 .2 2 .4 1*9 3*3 14*6 -5 * 0 4-6 2 2 .3 2*4 2*4 1*4 1*5 0 .6 0 .9 4 .4 4*4 6*1 14*7 4*5 14 .9 4 .9 5*2 4*4 4 .9 4 .4 5.2 8 .9 9*7 12*2 20*7 15*4 2 7 .1 87.277 88 .294 5-62 4 .7 6-62 1 .8 4 0 .7 90.841 - 1 .7 -3 1 *3 88.042 1.8 1*8 0 .9 0*9 0 .1 0 .3 2*8 2 .6 3*4 7 .8 1*3 3 .6 7-62 2*9 2 .9 3*1 2*3 2 .5 1 .6 2 .2 4 .7 4*7 5*8 9*9 5 .0 7*6 5 .3 - 8 .9 _ 8-62 1 .9 1.9 2*0 1.2 1.3 0 .6 0*8 2 .9 2 .7 3*4 6*5 1 .9 3 .4 0+7 -9+9 3 +2 - 1 1 .9 9 -62 2 .2 2 .3 2 .3 1*6 1*7 1 .1 1.4 3 .3 3.2 3 .8 6 .6 2 .7 4 .1 2 .0 -5+6 4*6 - 2 .7 7 .5 10-62 2*5 2 .5 2*6 1*9 2*1 1 .6 1.6 3*6 3 .6 4 .1 6 .7 3 .3 4 .5 2 .9 -3+4 5.2 0 .5 7 +3 7 .2 3-61 4-61 5-81 6-81 7-81 8-61 9-61 10-81 11-61 12-61 1-62 2-82 3-82 4-62 5-62 6-62 7-82 8-6 2 9-82 89.445 20 +9 88.502 89.038P 89.554E INITIAL MONTH P - PRELIMINARY E- ESTIMATEO P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E N O V E M B E R 10. 1 9 8 2 9 B A N K O F ST* L O U I S HOURLY COM PE N S AT IO N, B US IN ES S SECTOR X DMPnttNDFD ANNUAL R AT ES OF CHANGE______ IN IT IA I T E R M IN A I Û D A RTFR Q UARTER 1-78 ? - 78 3 - 78 i- 7 a 10 ^ J _ -2-78— ft. 7 7 .4 _ 1 - 7 ft ft .f t ft . 1 fl , 9 4-7« 9 .0 ft .7 9 . 3 1-79 9. S 9 .4 10 . 1 10 . 7 1 1 .5 4-79 ? - 79 79 79 1—8 0 7-80 3 - 80 4 - 840 - 1-81 l ? - 81 107^3 9 1 12. 2 .8 1 Î5 - 3 9 .4 9 .7 9 .7 1 0 .0 10 .0 8 .6 9 .3 9 .7 9 .9 10 .0 9 9 .3 9 . ? 9 9 .7 .6 9 9 1 17-7 170-5 9 .9 .0 9 . ? 8 .6 12 3 - 0 1 -ftO 9 .7 9 .6 10 .0 10 . 1 10 10 • <S 1 ? .6 7-80 9 .8 9 .8 10 . 1 10 . ? 10 . 3 1 0 .1 10 . 5 10 . 6 1 1 .7 10.8 3 - ft n 9 .8 9 .8 10 . 1 10 . 10 , 3 1 0 .0 10 . 3 in . 5 11. 1 1 0 .4 10 . ? - fil 9 .7 9 .7 9 ,9 1 0 ,. 0 10 .0 9 ,9 9 . 3 9 .9 10 3 9 ,9 ? 10 . ? 10 .7 1 0 ,. 4 10 . 10 . 5 10 . 9 1 0 ,. 0 10 . 1 10 . 3 1 0 .5 1 0 .4 c 10 .1 1 0 ,. < 10 . 1 10 . ? 133-1 9 .9 0 10 .0 9 .9 1 2 6 .7 1 3 0 .0 C 9 .7 9 .9 3 c 9 .8 1- f t l 10 . c ? 9 .9 4 - ftO 1 3 6 .1 9 .3 10 .6 12-0 9 .5 9 .6 1 4 0 .0 142-5 7 ,, 3 A - fll 9 r7 9 . 7 9 ■8 9 ,9 8 9 ,, 9 9 .9 10. 1 9 .7 9 .5 9 .4 9 .4 8 .,? 9 4 —ft 1 9 .5 9 .5 9 ,, 7 9 ,, 7 9 ,, 7 9 , .6 9 ,. 7 9 ,. 6 9, .8 9 .4 9 .1 9 .0 8 .9 7 ., 9 ft,. ? ,4 •n 145-6 7 .3 14 f t . 2 1- f t ? 9 .4 9 .4 9 ,,5 9 . ■6 9 ,,5 9 9 ., 5 9 ,. 4 9 ,, 5 9 .1 8 .9 8 ,. 7 8 . ft 7 ,. ft 7 .9 7 .4 7 .5 ?- ft? 9. 3 9. ? 9 ,„ 3 9 ,, 4 9 ,, 3 9 ,, ? 9 ., ? 9 ,, ? 9 i. ? 8-9 8.6 8 ,. 4 8 .3 7 . ,6 7 ,•6 7 .7 7-1 3-82 9 .1 9. 1 9, 9 » 9 1.1 9 , .0 9 , .0 8 ., 9 9 . .0 ___ ß *-6_. . 8 ^ 3 a,.2 a .o . 7 j, 3 7 ,. 3 6^9 6^a 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 2-81 3-81 1-78 1-80 INITIAL P- 7-8? 109-6 9-4 4-77 1-8? 4-8 1 105-4 > r 7-79 1- 7 9 4 - 78 c A-77 2-80 3-80 4 —6 0 1-81 4-81 1 5 0 .9 A . ft . 153-4 6 *5 6.1 1-82 2-82 1 5 5 *Z R. QUARTER PRELIMINARY OUTPUT P E R HOU R O F A L L P E R S O N S , B U S I N E S S C O M PO U N O FO AN N U A L R A T F flP C H A N G E T E R M IN A I IN T T T A I SECTOR Q U A RTFR 1977 r 100 QUARTER 4-77 1-78 7-78 1-78 0 .0 7-78 0 .4 0 .8 3-78 0 .1 0 .7 - 0 .4 4-78 0-3 0 .4 0 .7 3-78 L.—1 A 1-79 7-79 3-79 4 —7 9 7 - ftO 1-80 3-8 0 4 - fiO 4-81 1 —ft ? 7-87 .7 i n o .f t 0 .8 1 OO .f t - 0 .1 - 0 .1 - 0 .4 - 0 .4 -1 ..6 - 0 .5 -0-6 - 0 .9 -1 . 1 —7 -.0 lO O . 4 9 9 .f t - 7 .4 3-79 -0-7 -0-8 -1-1 -1 . 3 —7 ,0 - ?.? - 7 .0 4-79 - 0 .7 - 0 .8 -1 . 1 - 1 .7 -1 - 7 - 1 .7 - 1 .4 - 0 .8 - 0 .6 - 0 .8 - 0 .9 -1 . -1 . 1 -0-7 0 .0 9 9 .. 3 9 9 .. 1 C OC 1 -0-5 2-80 - 0 .9 -1 -0 -1-2 -1 . 4 -1 -,7 - 1 .8 -1 . 6 - 1 .5 - 1 .8 - 4 .4 3-80 - 0 .6 —0 . <s - 0 .8 - 0 .8 -1 . 1 -1 . O - 0 .7 - 0 .4 - 0 .3 - 0 .8 7 .9 4-80 -0-4 -0-4 -0-6 —O . 6 -O. 7 - 0 .6 - 0 .3 0 .0 0 .7 0 .0 7 .3 1 -ft 1-81 0. 1 0-1 0-0 0 .0 -O . 0 O. 1 0 .5 0 .9 1 .3 1-4 3 .4 3 .7 5 - ft . ü«a. 0 .1 0 .0 0 .0 -o. 0 0 .1 0 .4 0 .8 1 .1 1 .1 7 .5 7 .4 7 . ft n. ? 0 .5 0 .9 1*1 1-1 7. 7 .1 ? ^-K - fl. 1 0 .7 0 .4 O .ft 0 .5 1 .4 1 .1 0 .9 3—ft 1 3-81 1 OO -5 1-79 4-81 7-81 1 OO 7-79 ? —8 1 1 - ft 1 O. 1 0 .1 0. 1 O. 1 -0- 1 - 0 .1 -O . 1 -0. 1 o. 1 -n. ? ? 0 .8 9 9 .. 3 9 8 ..2 9 ft..9 9 9 .. 3 l OO..7 0.0 O -A 1. ? - 0 .7 - 1 .0 -3. 1 1 n l .n 1 OO.» 7 1-8? -O . 1 - 0 .1 -O. ? - 0 .2 -o. -O. 1 O. 1 0 .3 0 .4 0 .4 1 .0 0 .7 O .ft -0-7 - 0 .9 - 7 .0 -O.ft ? —fl2 - 0 .0 - 0 .0 - 0 .1 - 0 .1 -0. 1 - 0 .0 0 .2 0 .4 0-5 0 .4 1 .1 0-8 0-7 - 0 .3 - 0 .4 - 0 .9 0 .7 1. ? 3-82 Û .2 0-2 0 .1 0 .2 0. 1 0 .3 0 .5 0.7 0 .8 0 .8 1-4 1 .7 1 .1 0 .4 0 .5 0 .3 1 .5 7 . ft 4 .0 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 1-79 2-79 3— 7 9 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-ei 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-62 2-82 4-78 INITIAL P- 1 OO. i-O 1 OO. .3 1 O l .. 3 P QUARTER P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . CMUOBFR 2 8 . 1982 10 L O U IS PRO D U C T IV IT Y, RATIO SCALE I 977-100 1974 CO M PEN SA TIO N , AND LABOR COSTS RATIO SCALE I 9 7 7 - I 00 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 SOURCE. 1981 U S. 1982 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT ACES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INOICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED. 3RD QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ! U N IT L A B O R ___ C O M P O U N D E D C O STS, AHM UAL TNTTIAL B U S IN E S S R A T E S OF LOU IJ SEC TO R C H A N G E ___ QUA RT ER Q UARTER ■1 —7ft--- 2 .- JB --- 3l=X8___ 4 - 7 R ____ 1 - 7 9 ____? - 7 9 ___ 3 = 2 9 ___ < ^.79 ____1.-& Û___ 2 = S Q ___ 3 - 8 0 ___ __________ 1 - f t l ____ 2 - fl 1____ 3 - f l J ____ 4 - 8 1____ 1 ~ 6 ? ____? - f l 2 11,0 111 4 —7 fl ft . 9 ft , ? 9 .4 1-79 9 .7 9 .3 i n . *> 11 . 1 i ? • ft 7 —7 9 9 .9 9 .7 in , .7 1 1 ,. ? i ? •n 3-79 in . in , 1 1 11 .n 9 . 5 1 1 ,. 4 11.? 1 1 7 ., 9 1 1 .IS 1 ?1 1? .n 4— 7 9 in .. l n .n in ,. 7 1 1 1 .•4 in ,.9 i n , .f t 1-RO in ,.3 in ,. ? i n , .9 1 1 ,. 1 11, 1 1 ,. 1 11, i in ,.7 1 1 ,.ft _ ? - flO i n , .ft i n , .ft 1 1 ,, 5 1 1 ,. ft i ? , .1 i ? ,.n 1? ,. ? i ? , .3 1 3 ., 7 1V _ 1 ,. n i ? .n 1 ?7 . 1 3 7 .-3 •IS 1 - flO i n . ,5 i n , 1 1 ,. n 1 1 ,. ? 1 1 ,.5 1 1 ,. ? 1 1 ,, ? 1 1 ,.n 1 1 .. *> 1 1 ,.4 7 ., 5 in ., ? i n ,. ? i n , .IS i n . ,7 i n , .9 i n , .IS i n ,, 5 i n ., ? in ., 4 9 ,. 9 7 ,, ? 7 .n 1- ftl 9 ., 9 9 .. ft in ., ? in ., 3 i n , ,3 i n ,. n 9 ., 9 9 . ,*> 9 ., *> ft,,9 IS ,. ft IS ,. 5 IS,, n ?- fl 1 9 ,, 7 9 .. <s 9 .,9 i n ., n in ,, n 9 ,7 <j ., iS 9 ., ? 9 ,, | ft..A 7 ,, n /S ,. A IS,. 7 7 -A 1 - ft 1 9 -,/S 9 , ,5 9 . , ft 9 . , ft 9 ,,ft 9 ,, 5 9 ,i 4 9 .,n 9 ., n ft. 7 ,, i 7 ,, 1 7 . .1 7 ,6 7 ,9 4 —ft 1 9- , 7 9 , , IS 9 . ,ft 9 -,9 9 , .9 9 ., 7 9 . , *i 9 ., ? 9 ., ? ft..ft 7 ,„ 7 7 ..ft ft,. n ft,6 9 ,3 1 0 ,7 1- ft ? 9 - /S 9 .,5 9. 7 9 . , ft 9 . .ft 9 .,5 9 .,4 9 ., i 9,. i ft.,7 7 . , ft 7 , ,9 f t .■n R-<S 9^0 9-5 ?- ft? 9. 3 9 ., ? 9. 9-, 5 9. 9 ., ? 9 -, 3 - fl? ft . 9 ft. 9 -n 9. n 9 . ,n ft. .7 ft. 2 -78 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 1-79 1-78 1 2 -79 1 3 4 . .7 1 ^ 7 .-O 1 4 1 ..5 1 4 4 .. ? 1 4 7 . .9 ft ,4 1 5 ft .-9 ft -, ft fl- 7 ft. ,4 7 ,, 7, 7 ,.6 7 ,9 f t -1 ft- 1 ¿» ,9 5 ,4 ft., ? ft ., 1 7 . ,7 6 .,9 6 ..ft 6 <.ft 6 .9 6. 8 /S - <s 5-3 3 .7 — 2 .1 1-80 2-80 3 -80 4 -8 0 1-81 2 -8 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -82 3 -7 9 .-3 1 ? 4 . ,1 9 ,.IS 4 - ft ft 4— 77 -4 4 -79 IN ITIA L 3-81 1 5 ? . »9 —1 5 3 . J P QUARTER P R EL IM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FED ER AL R ES ERV E nr.TDRFR ?ft. 1982 11 BANK OF S T . LOUIS G R O SS N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S COHPOUHQEO A N N U A L R A T E S O f C H A N G E B IL L IO N S O F Q U A R T E R ___________________________________________ ________ ________ __________ D O L L A R S T E R M I N A L ________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER ANNUAL 4-77 1-78 2-78 1-78 8 *9 2-78 1 5 *7 2 3 *0 3-78 1 4 *6 1 7 *5 1 2 *3 3-76 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 2-60 1-80 3-60 4-80 1-61 2-61 3-61 4-81 1-82 2 ,0 3 1 * 7 2 ,1 3 9 .5 2 ,2 0 2 * 5 4-78 1 4 .7 16 *7 1 3 *7 1 5 *2 1-79 1 3 *7 1 5 *0 1 2 *4 1 2 *4 9 .8 2-79 1 2 *6 1 3 *4 l i . l 1 0 *8 8 .6 7 .5 3-79 1 2 *8 1 3 *4 1 1 *6 1 1 *5 1 0 .2 1 0 *5 2 ,2 8 1 * 6 2 ,3 3 5 * 5 2 ,3 7 7 * 9 1 3 *6 2 ,4 5 4 * 8 1 2 *7 1 1 .0 1 0 *8 9 .7 9 *7 1 0 *8 8 .1 1 2 *2 1 2 *6 1 1 *2 1 1 .0 1 0 .2 1 0 *3 1 1 *3 1 0 .1 2 ,5 0 2 * 9 1 2 .2 2 ,5 7 5 * 9 1 1 *1 9 *7 9 *3 8 .4 8 *1 8 *2 6 .5 5 .7 -0 *4 1 1 *1 9 *9 9 *6 8 .8 8 *6 8 *8 7 .7 7 .6 5 *3 1 1 *4 4-60 1 1 *3 1 1 *5 1 0 *4 1 0 *2 9 *6 9 *5 9 *9 9 .2 9 .4 8 .6 1 3 .3 1-61 1 1 *9 1 2 *1 1 1 *2 1 1 *1 1 0 .6 1 0 *8 1 1 *2 1 0 .8 1 1 .4 1 1 .2 1 5 .4 1 7 .4 1 9 *6 2-61 1 1 *4 1 1 *6 1 0 *7 1 0 *5 1 0 .1 1 0 *1 1 0 *5 1 0 .0 1 0 .4 1 0 .0 1 2 .6 1 3 .2 1 2 *2 5 *3 3-81 1 1 *4 1 1 *6 1 0 *7 1 0 *6 1 0 .2 1 0 *3 1 0 .6 1 0 .2 1 0 .5 1 0 .2 1 2 .5 1 2 .6 1 1 *9 6 *3 1 1 *4 4-81 10 *9 1 1 *0 1 0 *2 1 0 *0 9 .6 9*6 9 .8 9 .4 9 .5 9 .2 1 0 .6 1 0 .7 9 *6 6 *5 7 *1 3 *0 1-82 1 0 *1 1 0 *2 9 *4 9 .2 8 *7 8 *7 6 .6 6 .3 8 *3 7 .6 9 .1 8 .7 7 *4 4 *6 4 *3 1 *0 -1 *0 2-82 9 *9 1 0 *0 9 *2 9 .0 8*5 8 .6 8 .2 8 *2 7 .7 8 .6 8 *4 7 *3 5*0 4 *9 2 *9 2 *6 6 *8 3-82 9 *6 9 *7 9 *0 8*8 8 .3 8 *2 7 .9 7*8 7 .4 6 .3 7 *9 6 *9 5 *0 4*9 3*3 3*5 5 *8 4 .7 4-77 1-76 2-78 4-76 1-7$ 3-7$ 4-79 1-60 2-60 3-60 4— 6 0 1-61 2-61 3-61 4-61 1-82 2-62 3-76 • w 1 0 *9 1 0 *9 O' 2-60 3-60 CD 1 2 *2 1-60 CD 4-79 2-7$ Initial 2 ,5 7 3 * 4 IN IT IA L T E R M IN A L Q UARTER 2 ,6 4 3 * 7 1 5 .3 2 ,7 3 9 * 4 2 ,8 6 4 * 9 2 ,9 0 1 * 8 2 ,9 8 0 * 9 3 ,0 0 3 * 2 2 ,9 9 5 * 5 3 ,0 4 5 * 2 3 ,0 8 0 .7 Q U A k m G R O S S N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T I N C O M PO U N D ED A N N U A L R A T E S 1972 D O LLA RS OF CHANCE B IL L IO N S OF D O LLA RS Q UARTER ANNUAL 4-77 RATES 2-62 1—7 8 2 —7 8 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-60 3-60 4-80 1-81 2-61 3-61 4-81 1-62 RATES 2-62 1 »400 »0 2-78 4-76 7 ,1 1 1 .0 1 »4 3 7 *0 5 *8 7 *1 1 ,4 4 8 * 8 5 *5 5 *8 1 »468 *4 1 »4 7 2 *6 1-79 2-79 3 *8 lt4 6 ? t¿ 3 *9 2 *2 1 *9 0 *1 -0 *9 2 *4 2 *2 1 *4 1 *5 2*6 1 *1 1 *5 0 *7 0 *4 -0 *5 -0 *8 -0 *8 -2 *6 ^ 4 *2 0 *5 - 0 .2 -0 *4 -0 *3 -1 *5 - 2 .3 0 *3 0 .5 - 0 .4 - 0 .7 0 *6 4 *0 1 ,4 6 6 * 6 4-79 3 *6 3 *6 3 *3 3 *3 2-80 2 *0 1*8 1 *9 4-60 2 *1 2*0 2 .6 2 *5 2-81 2 *3 3-61 2 .3 1 -6 2 1*4 1*2 1*6 1 ,4 9 4 * 9 1 » 4 5 7 .8 -9 *6 1 *7 1 » 4 6 3 .8 - 1 .4 3 .0 1 »4 7 9 .4 6 *1 7 *9 O .A 3 .0 3 .5 3 .1 2 .9 3 .2 1 .5 1 ,5 0 7 .6 1 ,5 0 2 .2 - 1 .5 0 *9 1 *1 1*0 1*0 1*2 0*1 0*0 -0*2 1 *5 1 *4 0 *7 -1*6 — 1*6 1*2 0 .0 -0 .0 0*0 -0 * 4 -0 .6 -0 .6 0 .5 0 .3 -0 .5 -2 .5 -2 ¿ 6 -5 .2 -5 .1 1*3 0*2 0*1 0*2 -0 * 2 -0 .3 -0 .5 0*7 0 .6 -0 .0 -1 .6 -1 .6 -2 * 6 -1 * 6 2*1 0*1 0*2 -0 * 2 -0 .3 -0 .4 0 .5 -0 * 0 -1 * 3 -1 * 3 -2 * 1 -1 * 0 1*0 0»0 2^79 3^?9 4 -7 9 1^60 3 -8 0 4^80 W 2 -8 1 3 -8 1 4 -8 1 1 -8 2 2 -6 2 2.2 1 .5 0 *9 0*5 1*3 ~ 4 -7 ? 1.2 1 *3 1 *7 3 -6 2 0 .9 1 »489 *3 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 W 9 IN IT IA L 2 -8 0 0 *3 Í 1 ,5 1 0 * 4 2^2 1 ,4 9 0 * 1 1 ,4 7 0 .7 1 ,4 7 6 * 4 1 ,4 7 8 * 4 Q U A R TER PRÉPARED NOVEM BER 12 BY FED ER A L 1 9 , 1982 RESERVE BANK OF S T. L O U IS G R O S S RATIO SCALE 1974 N A T I O N A L QUARTERLY 1975 1976 TOTALS 1977 AT 1978 P R O D U C T ANNUAL RATES 1979 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE LATEST PLOTTED: DATA ANNUAL RATES 3RD OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS RATIO 1980 J .r . 1981 DEPARTMENT SCALE 1982 OF COMMERCE INDICATED. QUARTER PRE P ARE D BY F E D E R A L 13 RESERVE BANK OF ST L OUI S GENERAL RATIO PRICE * INDEX SCALE RATIO I 972-100 1974 *AS USED 1975 1976 IN NATIONAL 1977 1978 INCOME ACCOUNTS DATA PLOTTED: 1979 1980 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6E FOR PERIO D S LATEST SCALE 19 7 2 - 1 0 0 U .S . 1981 1982 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE I NO ICA TED . 3RD QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S LO U li I M P L I C I T P R I C E 0 € F L A T O R F O R G R O S S N A T IO N A L P R O O U C T _______________C O M PO U N D ED A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E ________________ T E R M IN A L Q UARTER IN IT IA L 1-78 5 .4 2-78 8 .0 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 1972 Q UARTER 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 3-81 4-81 * 100 1-82 1 0 .8 3-78 8 .3 9 .7 8 .7 4-78 8 .5 9 .5 8 .9 9 .1 1-79 8 .5 9 .3 8 .8 8 .8 8 *6 2-79 8 .5 9 .1 8 .7 8 .7 8 .5 8 .5 3-79 8 .5 9 .0 8 .6 8 .6 8 .4 8 .4 8 .3 4-79 8 .3 8 .7 8 .4 8 .4 8 .2 8 .0 7 .8 7 .3 1-80 8 .6 9 .0 8 .7 8 .7 8 .6 8 .6 8 .7 8 .9 1 0 *5 1 5 2 .0 2 158*60 1 6 1 .8 5 1 6 8 .0 5 2-80 8 .7 9 .1 8 .9 8 .9 8 .9 8 .9 9 .1 9 .3 1 0 *3 1 0 *1 3-80 8 .8 9 .1 9 .0 9 .0 9 .0 9 .0 9 .2 9 .4 1 0 .1 9 .9 9 *6 4-80 8 .9 9 .3 9 .1 9 .2 9 .2 9 .3 9 .4 9 *6 1 0 *2 1 0 *1 1 0 *0 1 0 .5 1 7 6 .5 2 1 8 0 .6 0 1 8 5 .1 6 1 9 0 .0 1 9 .3 9 .3 9 .4 9 .5 9 *6 9 *8 1 0 .3 10 *3 1 0 *3 1 0 .7 1 0 .9 9 .2 9 .1 9 .1 9 .1 9 .2 9 .2 9 .4 9 .7 **6 9 *4 9 .4 8 .8 6 .8 3-81 8 .9 9 .2 9 .1 9 .1 9 .1 9 .1 9 *2 9 .3 9*6 9 .5 9 .3 9 .3 8 .9 7 .9 4-81 8 .9 9 .2 9 .0 9 .1 9 .1 9 .1 9 .2 9 .3 9 *5 9 *4 9 .2 9 .2 8 .9 1-82 8 *6 8 .8 8 .7 8 .7 8 .7 8 .7 8 .7 8 .8 8 .9 8 .7 8 .5 8 .3 7 .9 8 .4 8 .6 8 .5 8 .4 8 .4 8 .4 8 .4 8 *4 8 .5 8 *3 8 .0 7 .8 7 .4 8 .2 8 .4 8 .2 8 .2 8 .1 8 .1 8 .1 8 *1 8*1 7 *9 7 .7 7 .4 4 —7 7 1-78 ¿- 7 8 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-7$ 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 1 9 3 .1 7 9 .0 1 9 7 .3 6 8 .2 8 .9 8 *8 2 0 1 *5 5 7 .2 7 .3 6 *5 * 9 .4 8 .9 (SI 9 .1 <•M 1-81 2-81 3-82 2-81 6 .7 6*6 5 *9 4 *4 4 *6 7 .0 6 .3 6 .3 5 *6 4 *5 4 .7 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1—82 w 4 *7 7 2 0 3 .6 8 PRÉPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE N O V E M B E R 19, 1 9 8 2 14 2 0 5 .9 8 B A N K O F ST. L O U I S P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P E N D I T U R E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S __________ C O H P O U N O E D A N N U A L R A T E S O f C H A N G E _____________ BILLIONS OF T E R M IN A L YQuUi A i bRTTCE b R ____ 4-77 1-78 8 .1 2-78 1 3 .0 1-78 2-78 IN IT IA L 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 Q UARTER 2-80 — 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-62 D O LLARS --------.___________ ______ ANNUAL R A T E S 2-82 1 ,2 7 6 .4 1 8 .1 1 ,3 3 0 .7 __ _ 3-78 1 2 .5 1 4 .8 1 1 .5 4 —7 8 1 2 .7 1 4 .3 1 2 .5 1 3 .4 1-79 1 2 .2 1 3 .3 1 1 .7 1 1 .9 1 0 .3 2-79 1 1 .6 1 2 .3 1 0 .9 1 0 .7 9 .4 8 .5 . 3-79 1 2 .1 1 2 .8 1 1 .7 1 1 .8 1 1 .2 1 1 .7 1 4 .9 4-79 1 2 .3 1 2 .9 1 2 .0 1 2 .1 1 1 .8 1 2 .3 1 4 .3 1 3 .7 1-60 1 2 .1 1 2 .6 1 1 .8 1 1 .9 1 1 .6 1 1 .9 1 3 .1 1 2 .2 1 0 .7 2-60 1 0 .9 1 1 .2 1 0 .4 1 0 .3 9 .7 9 .6 9 .9 8 .3 5 .7 0 .9 3-80 1 1 .3 1 1 .7 1 1 .0 1 0 .9 1 0 .5 1 0 .6 1 1 .0 1 0 .1 8 .9 8 .0 1 5 .6 4-80 1 1 .7 1 2 .1 1 1 .5 1 1 .5 1 1 .2 1 1 .4 1 1 .8 1 1 .2 1 0 .6 1 0 .6 1 5 .8 1 6 .1 1-81 1 1 .8 1 2 .1 1 1 .6 1 1 .6 1 1 .4 1 1 .6 1 2 .0 1 1 .5 1 1 .1 1 1 .2 1 4 .9 1 4 .5 1 3 .0 2-81 1 0 .7 1 1 .0 1 0 .5 1 0 .0 9 .8 1 2 .2 1 1 .0 8 .6 4 .4 1 ,3 6 7 .5 1 ,4 1 1 .3 1 ,4 4 6 .3 1 ,4 7 6 .0 1 ,5 2 8 .3 1 ,5 7 8 .0 1 ,6 1 8 .7 1 ,6 2 2 .2 1 ,6 8 2 .0 1 ,7 4 5 .8 1 ,7 9 9 .9 1 1 .3 1 1 .5 1 1 .0 1 0 .9 1 0 .7 3-81 1 1 .3 1 1 .5 1 1 .0 1 1 .0 1 0 .7 1 0 .8 1 1 .1 1 0 .6 1 0 .1 1 0 .1 1 2 .0 1 1 .1 9 .5 7 .8 1 1 .3 4-81 1 0 .8 1 0 .9 1 0 .5 1 0 .4 1 0 .1 1 0 .1 1 0 .3 9 .8 9 *3 9 .1 1 0 .5 9 .5 7 .9 6 .3 7 .3 3 .4 1-62 1 0 .6 1 0 .7 1 0 .3 1 0 .2 9 .9 9 .9 1 0 .0 9 .5 9 .1 8 .9 1 0 .1 9 .2 7 .9 6 .6 7 .4 5 .5 2-62 1 0 .3 1 0 .5 1 0 .0 9 .9 9 .6 9 .6 9 .7 9 .2 8 .8 8 .6 9 .6 8 .7 7 .6 6 .5 7 .1 5 .7 6 .8 6 .1 3-62 1 0 .2 1 0 .3 9 .9 9 .8 9 .6 9 .5 9 .6 9 .2 8 .8 8 .6 9 .4 8 .7 7 .7 6 .8 7 .3 6 .4 7 .4 7 .2 8 .4 4 - n i-7 è 2-78 1-79 2-7* 3-79 4-79 1-80 ¿ —8 0 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-78 4-78 1 ,8 1 9 .4 1 ,8 6 8 .8 1 ,8 8 4 .5 1 * 9 1 9 .4 7 .6 1 ,9 4 7 .8 1 ,9 8 7 .5 INITIAL QUAfcTêR PERSO N AL C O N S U M P T IO N E X P E N D I T U R E S I N 1 9 7 2 C O M PO U N D ED A N N U A L R A T E S O F CH A N G E T E R M IN A L Q UARTER IN IT IA L 4-77 1-78 1 .6 2-78 4 .8 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 DO LLARS B IL L IO N S OF DO LLARS ANNUAL R A T ES Q UARTER 2-80 3-80 4-80 3-61 4-81 1-82 2-82 8 8 3 .8 9 0 1 .1 3-78 4 .3 5 .7 3 .4 4 .4 5 .4 4 .1 4 .7 1-79 3 .7 4 .2 3 .0 2 .8 0 .9 2-79 2 .9 3 .2 2 .0 1 .6 0 .1 - 0 .7 ¿ —7 9 3 .2 3 .5 2 .6 2 .5 1 .7 2 .1 4-79 3 .3 3 .5 2 .8 2 .6 2 .1 2 .5 4 .2 3 .3 1-80 2 .8 3 .0 2 .3 2 .1 1 .5 1 .7 2 .5 1 .3 - 0 .7 9 0 8 .6 9 1 9 .2 9 2 1 .2 9 1 9 .5 5 .1 9 3 0 .9 9 3 8 .6 9 3 7 .0 2-80 1 .6 1 .6 0 .8 0 .5 - 0 .2 - 0 .5 —0 . 4 - 2 .2 - 4 .8 - 6 .7 3-80 1 .9 2 .0 1 .3 1 .1 0 .5 0 .5 0 .7 - 0 .3 -1 *5 ^ 1 .9 5 .4 4-60 2 .2 2 .3 1 .7 1 .6 1 .2 1 .2 1 .6 0 .9 0 .3 0 .6 5 .6 5 .7 5 .2 5 .0 4 .4 2 .4 2-81 8 .1 4-78 1-61 1-81 2 .5 2 .0 1 .8 1 .5 1 .6 1 .9 1 .4 1 .1 1 .5 9 1 5 .8 9 2 8 .0 9 4 1 .0 9 5 1 .1 2-61 2 .0 2 .1 1 .6 1 .4 1 .1 1 .1 1 .4 0 .8 0 .4 0 .6 3 .1 2 .4 0 .8 - 2 .7 3-61 2 .1 2 .1 1 .7 1 .5 1 .3 1 .3 1 .5 1 .1 0 .8 1 .0 3 .1 2 .5 1 .5 0 .1 2 .9 4-61 1 .7 1 .8 1 .3 1 .2 0 .9 0 .9 1 .0 0 .6 0 .3 0 .4 2 .0 1 .3 0 .3 - 1 .1 - 0 .3 - 3 .3 1-62 1 .8 1 .8 1 .4 1 .3 1 .0 1 .0 1 .2 0 .8 0 .5 0 .6 2 .1 1 .5 0 .7 - 0 .2 ___ 0 . 6 - 0 .5 2 .4 2-62 1 .8 1 .8 1 .5 1 .3 1 .1 1 .1 1 .3 0 .9 0 .7 0 .8 2 .1 1 .7 1 .0 0 .3 1 .1 0 .5 2 .5 3-62 1 .8 1 .8 1 .4 1 .3 1 .1 1 .1 1 .3 1 .0 0 .7 0 .9 2 .0 1 .6 1 .0 0 .5 1 .1 0 .7 2 .0 4-77 1-78 ¿- 7 8 i- ? 6 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-«) 1—8 1 ¿- 6 1 3-81 4-81 9 4 4 .6 9 5 1 .4 9 4 3 .4 9 4 9 .1 2 .5 9 5 5 .0 l . l 1-82 9 5 7 .7 2-82 INITIAL QUARTER P R E P A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK O F ST. L O U I S N O V E M B E R 19, 1 9 8 2 G R O S S P R I V A T E D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ____________C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E _____________ T E R M I N A L __________ ______________________________________________________________________________I N I T I A L Q U A R tE R 4-77 1-78 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 2-79 1-79 1 6 .8 3-79 4-79 ________________ B I L L I O N S OF Q U A R T E R _______________________________ _______________________________ ___________ ANNUAL 1-80 2 —8 0 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 RATES 2-82 3 5 4 .2 2-78 3 0 .0 4 4 .7 3-78 2 1 .6 2 4 .1 6 .4 4-78 2 0 .1 2 1 .2 1 0 .9 1 5 .5 1-79 1 7 .1 1 7 .2 9 .2 1 0 .7 3 8 8 .5 3 9 4 .6 4 0 9 .1 6 .0 4 1 5 .1 2-79 1 6 .5 1 6 .4 1 0 .2 1 1 .5 9 .6 1 3 .3 3-79 1 4 .5 1 4 .1 8 .8 9 .5 7 .5 8 .3 3 .4 4-79 1 0 .6 9 .7 4 .8 4 .5 1 .9 0 .5 - 5 .3 - 1 3 .3 1-80 1 0 .2 9 .4 5 .1 4 .9 2 .9 2 .1 - 1 .3 - 3 .6 2-80 5 .7 4 .5 0 .3 - 0 .5 - 3 .0 - 4 .7 - 8 .7 - 1 2 .4 - 1 2 .0 - 2 7 .7 3-80 4 .5 3 .3 - 0 .5 - 1 .3 - 3 .5 - 5 .0 - 8 .3 - 1 1 .1 - 1 0 .3 - 1 7 .9 - 6 .9 4-80 6 .4 5 .5 2 .2 1 .7 0 .1 - 0 .7 - 2 .8 - 4 .0 - 1 .6 - 4 .3 1 0 .1 4 2 8 .3 4 3 1 .9 4 1 6 .8 7 .1 4 2 4 .0 3 9 1 .0 3 8 4 .1 4 1 0 .3 3 0 .2 4 5 5 .7 1-81 9 .4 8 .8 6 .0 5 .9 4 .9 4 .8 3 .6 3 .6 7 .4 7 *5 2 2 .7 4 0 .8 5 2 .2 2-81 1 0 .0 9 .5 7 .0 7 .0 6 .2 6 .2 5 .4 5 .6 9 .2 9 .6 2 1 .6 3 2 .9 3 4 .3 1 8 .5 4 7 5 .5 3-81 9 .9 9 .5 7 .1 7 .2 6 .5 6 .5 5 .8 6 .1 9 .2 9 .5 1 9 .0 2 6 .5 2 5 *3 1 3 .7 9 .1 4-81 8 .3 7 .8 5 .5 5 .5 4 .7 4 .5 3 .7 3 .7 6 .1 5 .9 1 2 .9 1 7 .3 1 4 .3 3 .9 - 2 .8 - 1 3 .3 4 8 6 .0 4 6 8 .9 1-82 4 .7 4 .0 1 .8 1 .4 0 .4 - 0 .0 - 1 .2 - 1 .6 - 0 .2 - 1 .1 3 .4 5 .3 0 .9 - 9 .0 - 1 6 .6 - 2 7 .2 - 3 8 .8 2-82 5 .4 4 .8 2 .7 2 .4 1 .5 1 .2 0 .2 - 0 .0 1 .4 0 .8 5 .1 6 .9 3 .4 - 4 .3 - 9 .3 - 1 4 .7 - 1 5 .3 3-82 5 .6 5 .0 3 .0 2 .8 2 .0 1 .8 0 .9 0 .7 2 .1 1 .6 5 .5 7 .2 4 .2 -2.1 - 5 .8 - 9 .2 - 7 .8 t-7è ¿-7* J- 7 * 4-76 1-7* 4-7* 1-TÓ" 2-80 i- è o 4-80 1-81 ¿-81 à-81 4-81 ^4-77 __________D O L L A R S 2-7* " 5-7* 4 1 4 .8 4 3 1 .5 1 7 .1 9 .4 1-82 4 4 1 .3 2-82 INITIAL GRO SS P R I V A T E D O M E S T IC I N V E S T M E N T I N 1 9 7 2 C O M PO U N D ED A N N U A L R A T E S O F C H A N G E T E R M IN A L Q UARTER IN IT IA L 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-78 1 5 .9 2-78 2 0 .5 2 5 .4 3-78 1 2 .1 1 0 .2 4-78 1 0 .8 9 .2 1 .9 7 .2 1-79 8 .3 6 .5 0 .9 3 .0 - 1 .2 2-79 6 .8 5 .1 0 .6 1 .9 - 0 .7 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 D O LLARS Q UARTER 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 B IL L IO N S OF DO LLARS ANNUAL R A T ES 2-82 2 2 6 .7 2 3 9 .9 - 3 .1 2 3 8 .0 2 4 2 .2 2 4 1 .5 - 0 .3 2 4 1 .3 4 .8 3 .1 - 0 .9 - 0 .3 - 2 .7 - 3 .5 - 6 .6 1 .5 - 0 .4 - 4 .1 - 4 .3 - 7 .0 - 8 .8 - 1 2 .8 1-80 0 .8 - 0 .9 - 4 .2 - 4 .3 - 6 .5 - 7 .8 2-80 - 3 .1 - 5 .0 - 8 .3 - 9 .0 - 1 1 .4 - 1 3 .3 3-80 - 3 .3 - 5 .0 - 7 .9 - 8 .5 - 1 0 .6 4-80 - 1 .4 - 2 .8 - 5 .3 - 5 .5 1-81 0 *4 - 0 .8 - 2 .8 H ♦ 0 3-79 4-79 2 3 7 .2 - 1 8 .6 2 2 5 .3 - 4 .5 - 1 6 .3 - 1 9 .3 - 1 9 .7 - 3 2 .4 - 1 2 .0 - 1 4 .2 - 1 6 .0 - 1 5 .1 - 2 0 .0 - 5 .2 - 7 .0 - 7 .8 - 9 .0 - 9 .4 - 7 .0 - 7 .8 7 .8 2 2 .6 - 2 .8 - 3 .9 - 4 .2 - 4 .8 - 4 .4 - 1 .3 - 0 .5 1 3 .2 2 3 .8 1 —1 1 * 9 2 2 2 .7 2 0 1 .9 1 9 9 .2 2 0 9 .6 2 4 .9 2 2 1 .6 0 .4 - 1 .5 - 1 .3 - 2 .1 - 2 .2 - 2 .5 - 1 .9 1 .2 2 .4 1 3 .7 2 0 .8 1 9 .9 1 5 .0 1 .8 0 .8 - 0 .8 - 0 .6 - 1 .3 - 1 .4 - 1 .5 - 0 .8 2 .0 3 .2 1 2 .3 1 7 .2 1 5 .4 1 0 .9 4-81 0 .0 - 0 .9 - 2 .6 - 2 .5 - 3 .3 - 3 .5 - 3 .8 - 3 .5 - 1 .4 - 1 .0 5 .5 7 .8 4 .4 - 1 .6 - 9 .0 - 2 2 .6 1-82 - 2 .6 - 3 .6 - 5 .3 - 5 .5 —6 . 4 - 6 .8 - 7 .4 - 7 .5 —6 . 1 - 6 .3 - 1 .9 - 1 .3 - 5 .5 - 1 1 .8 - 1 9 .3 - 2 9 .9 - 3 6 .5 2-82 - 1 .7 - 2 .6 - 4 .2 - 4 .2 - 5 .0 - 5 .3 - 5 .7 —5 . 6 - 4 .2 o 0 .9 - 2 .3 - 7 .0 - 1 1 .9 - 1 7 .4 - 1 4 .6 1 4 .9 3-82 - 1 .3 - 2 .2 - 3 .6 - 3 .7 - 4 .3 - 4 .6 - 4 .9 - 4 .7 - 3 .4 - 3 .3 0 .7 1 .4 - 1 .3 - 5 .1 - 8 .6 - 1 2 .2 —8 . 4 1 0 .1 5 .4 4-77 1-78 2-78 i —7 8 4-78 1-79 2-7*“ 3-7* 4-7* i- é ó 2-80 Ì- 8 Ó 4 —8 0 I —8 1 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 Tn IT Ia L <M 1 .4 T 2 r8 1 3-81 2 2 9 .5 7 .0 2 3 3 .4 2 1 8 .9 1 9 5 .4 2 0 2 .3 2 0 5 .0 Q U A R tE R PREPARE) BY FEOERAL RESERVE N O V E M B E R 19» 1 9 8 2 16 B A N K O F ST. L O U I S G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O O S A N O S E R V I C E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ________ C O M P O U N D E D ANNUAL R A T E S O F C H A N G E ___________________________ TERMINAL______________ ______________________________________________ INITIAL QUARTER_________ B ILLIO NS _____ ______ DOLLARS Q UARTER ANNUAL 4-77 1-78 4 .8 2-78 8 .2 1 1 .7 1 0 .4 1 -4 CD 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 OF RATES 2-82 4 1 2 .8 4 2 4 .4 1 3 .3 1 4 .8 4-78 1 0 .6 1 2 .6 1 3 .0 1 1 .2 1-79 9 .5 1 0 .7 1 0 .3 8 .2 5 .2 6 .0 4 3 9 .3 4 5 1 .1 4 5 6 .9 2-79 9 .0 9 .9 9 .4 7 .7 3-79 9 .5 1 0 .3 1 0 .1 8 .9 8 .2 9 .7 1 2 .6 4-79 1 0 .4 1 1 .3 1 1 .2 1 0 .5 1 0 .3 1 2 .1 1 4 .8 1 6 .9 1-80 1 1 .3 1 2 .1 1 2 .2 1 1 .8 1 1 .9 1 3 .6 1 6 .0 1 7 .7 1 8 .5 2-80 1 1 .5 1 2 .3 1 2 .4 1 2 .0 1 2 .2 1 3 .6 1 5 .4 1 6 .3 1 6 .0 1 3 .6 3-80 1 0 .6 1 1 .2 1 1 .2 1 0 .7 1 0 .6 1 1 .6 1 2 .6 1 2 .5 1 1 .1 7 .6 6 .8 4 6 4 .5 4 7 8 .5 4 9 7 .6 5 1 9 .2 5 3 6 .0 1 .9 5 3 8 .5 4-80 1 1 .1 1 1 .7 1 1 .7 1 1 .4 1 1 .4 1 2 .3 1 3 .2 1 3 .4 1 2 .5 1 0 .6 9 .1 1 6 .8 1-81 1 1 .3 1 1 .9 1 1 .9 1 1 .6 1 1 .7 1 2 .5 1 3 .3 1 3 .4 1 2 .7 1 1 *3 1 0 .6 1 5 .2 1 3 .7 5 5 9 .8 5 7 8 .1 2-81 1 0 .7 1 1 .2 1 1 .2 1 0 .9 1 0 .8 1 1 .5 1 2 .1 1 2 .0 1 1 .2 9 .7 8 .8 1 1 *2 8 .5 3 .6 3-81 1 0 .8 1 1 .3 1 1 .3 1 1 .0 1 0 .9 1 1 .5 1 2 .1 1 2 .0 1 1 .3 1 0 .1 9 .5 1 1 .5 9 .7 7 .8 1 2 .2 4-81 1 1 .3 1 1 .8 1 1 .8 1 1 .5 1 1 .6 1 2 .2 1 2 .7 1 2 .7 1 2 .2 1 1 .3 1 0 .9 1 2 .8 1 1 .9 1 1 .3 1 5 .3 1 8 .6 1-82 1 0 .8 1 1 .2 1 1 .1 1 0 .9 1 0 .8 1 1 .3 1 1 .7 1 1 .6 1 1 .1 1 0 .2 9 .7 1 1 .0 9 .9 9 .0 1 0 .9 1 0 .2 2 .4 2-82 1 0 .2 1 0 .5 1 0 .4 1 0 .1 1 0 .1 1 0 .4 1 0 .7 1 0 .6 1 0 .0 9 .0 8 .5 9 .5 8 .3 7 .2 8 .2 6 .9 1 .5 0 .5 3-82 1 0 .3 1 0 .6 1 0 .5 1 0 .3 1 0 .2 1 0 .6 1 0 .9 1 0 .7 1 0 .2 9 .3 8 .9 9 .8 6 .8 8 .0 9 .0 8 .2 4 .9 6 .2 1 2 .1 4-77 i- 7 é ¿- 7 0 3-78 4-78 1-79 2 - t^ 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1—8 1 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 583 .2 6 0 0 .2 6 2 6 .3 6 3 0 .1 6 3 0 .9 6 4 9 .2 I n it i a l quarTér GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOOOS ANO SERVICES IN 1972 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER 4 -7 7 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES INITIAL QUARTER 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 1-78 - 1 .5 2-78 1.6 4.8 3-78 2 .7 4 .8 4 -78 2 .3 3.6 3 .0 1 .3 1-79 1.5 2 .2 1 .4 - 0 .3 - 1 .9 2-79 1.3 1 .9 1.2 0 .0 —0 .6 0 .6 3 -79 1.5 2.1 1.5 0 .7 0 .5 1 .7 2 .9 4 -7 9 1.8 2 .3 1.8 1 .3 1.3 2 .3 3 .2 3 .5 1-80 2 .1 2 .6 2 .3 1 .9 2 .0 3 .0 3 .8 4 .3 5.1 2-80 2 .2 2 .7 2 .4 2 .1 2 .2 3 .0 3 .6 3 .9 4 .1 3 .1 1.6 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.9 1 .6 1 .0 -O i9 - 4 .8 1 .4 1 .0 1.0 1 .4 1 .5 1 .3 0 .7 -0 .7 - 2 .6 - 0 .3 4 -8 0 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 270 .4 3-80 1 .6 1 .9 4 -80 1 .4 1.7 2 7 3 .6 4 .8 276.8 2 7 7 .7 2 7 6 .4 276.8 2 7 8 .8 28 1 .2 2 8 4 .7 2 8 6 .9 2 8 3 .4 2 8 3 .2 1-81 1 .7 2 .0 1.7 1 .4 1 .4 1 .9 2 .0 1 .9 1 .6 0 .7 - 0 .0 2 .4 5.2 2-81 1 .3 1.5 1.2 0 .9 0 .9 1.2 1.3 1.0 0 .6 -0 .2 - 1 .0 0 .2 0 .5 - 4 .0 3-81 1 .4 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.1 1 .4 1.5 1 .4 1.1 0 .4 —0 .1 1.1 1.5 - 0 .3 3 .6 4-8 1 1.8 2 .0 1.8 1.6 1.6 1.9 2 .1 2 .0 1 .8 1 .3 1.0 2 .2 2 .9 2 .1 5 .3 7 .0 1-82 1 .5 1 .7 1.5 1.3 1.3 1 .5 1.6 1 .5 1.3 0 .8 0 .5 1 .4 1 .7 0 .8 2 .5 2 .0 2 8 6 .8 283 .9 28 6 .4 2 9 1 .3 -2 .9 28 9.2 2-82 1 .1 1.3 1.1 0 .8 0 .8 1.0 1 .0 0 .8 0 .6 0 .1 - 0 .3 0 .4 0 .5 - 0 .4 0 .5 - 0 .5 -4 .1 -5 .3 3-82 1.4 1 .6 1.4 1.2 1.2 1 .4 1.4 1 .3 1.1 0 .7 0.5 1.2 1.4 0 .7 1 .7 1 .3 - 0 .6 0 .6 6 .8 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 28 5 .3 29 0.0 INITIAL QUARTER 17 P R E P A R E D B Y F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K O F ST. L O U I S N O V E M B E R 19, 1 9 8 2 D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L IN C O M E I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S CO N FO U N D ED A N N U A L R A T E S O F CHANGE T E R M I N A L ________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R __________________________________________ QUARTER 4-77 1-76 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 1-78 9 .7 2-78 11*6 13.6 3-78 12 »1 13.3 1 3 .0 4-78 12*3 13.2 13 .0 1 3 .0 1-79 12*3 12 .9 1 2 .7 12 .6 12.1 2 -7 9 11*6 12.2 11 .9 11 .5 10.8 9 .5 3-79 12.0 12 .4 12.1 11 .9 11.5 11.2 13.0 4 -7 9 11.7 12.0 11.8 11 .5 11.2 10.8 11.5 10.1 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 B IL L IO N S OF D O LLA RS ______ 4-81 1-82 2-82 ANNUAL RATES 1 ,4 0 5 .7 1 ,4 5 1 .3 1 ,4 9 6 .2 1 ,5 4 2 .7 1 ,5 6 7 .5 1 ,6 2 4 .0 1 ,6 7 4 .3 1 ,7 1 4 .9 1-60 11.6 12.1 1 1 .9 11.7 11.5 11.3 11.9 11.4 12.7 2 -6 0 11 .0 11.1 10.8 10 .5 1 0 .0 9 .6 9 .7 8 .6 7 .9 3*2 3 -80 11.3 11.5 11 .3 11.1 10.6 10.6 10.8 10.2 10.3 9*1 15*3 4 -6 0 11.5 11.6 11 .4 11.3 11.1 10.9 11.1 10.8 11.0 10*4 14.2 13 .0 1-61 11.5 11.7 11.5 1 1 .4 11.2 11.1 11*3 11*0 11.2 10*9 13*5 12.6 12.3 1 ,7 6 6 .9 1 ,7 6 1 .0 1 ,6 4 5 .5 1 ,9 0 2 .9 1 ,9 5 8 .7 2-61 11.3 11 .4 11.2 11.1 10 .9 10.7 10.9 10.6 10*7 10*3 12*1 11.1 10 .1 7 .9 3 -81 1 1 .4 1 1 .5 11 .4 11.2 11 .1 1 1 .0 11*1 10.9 11*0 10*8 12*3 11.6 11*2 10*6 13*3 4 -6 1 11.2 11.3 11.2 11 .0 1 0 .9 1 0 .7 10.9 10 .6 ID* 7 10 .4 11*7 10 .9 10*4 9*8 10*8 8 .3 1-62 10.7 10.8 10 .6 10 .4 10.2 10.1 10.1 9 .8 9.6 9 .5 10*4 9 .6 8 .9 6 .1 8.1 5 .6 3 .0 2-82 10.5 10.5 10.3 10.2 10 .0 9 .8 9 .6 9 .5 9.5 9 .1 9 .9 9 .2 6 .5 7 .6 7 .8 6 .0 4 .6 6 .7 3-82 10 .4 10.5 10.3 10.1 9 .9 9 .8 9 .8 9 .6 9.5 9*2 9 .9 9 .2 8 .7 6 .1 8 .1 6 .9 6 .4 6 .2 9 .7 4-77 l-? d 2-7Ö 3-78 4-70 1-79 2-7* 3-7* 4-79 l-* 0 3-6 Ö 4—60 1-61 2—61 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 1,996*5 2 ,0 6 0 .0 2,1 0 1 *4 2 ,1 1 7 .1 2 ,1 5 1 .5 2 ,2 0 1 .7 INITIAL DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCONE IN 1972 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES INITIAL QUARTER 4 -7 7 1-78 2-78 1-76 3 .1 2 -78 3 .5 3 .9 3-78 3 .9 4 .3 4 .7 4 -76 4 .0 4 .3 4 .5 3 -78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-60 2-60 3-60 4-80 1-61 2-61 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 9 7 3 .4 982.8 994.2 4 .3 1 ,0 0 4 .6 1-79 3 .7 3 .9 3 .9 3 .4 2 .5 2-79 3 .1 3 .1 2 .9 2 .4 1 .4 0 .2 1 ,0 1 1 .1 3 -79 3 .2 3 .2 3 .0 2 .6 2 .0 1 .7 4 -7 9 2 .8 2 .7 2 .5 2 .1 1 .5 1.2 1.7 0.1 1-80 2 .6 2 .5 2 .3 1 .9 1.4 1.2 1.5 0 .6 2 -6 0 1 .6 1 .5 1.1 0 .6 0 .0 - 0 .4 - 0 .6 - 1 .9 -2 .8 - 6 .6 3 -60 1 .9 1 .6 1.6 1 .2 0 .8 0 .5 0 .5 - 0 .2 -0 .2 -0 .9 5.1 4 -8 0 2 .0 1 .9 1.7 1 .4 1 .0 0 .8 0 .9 0 .5 0 .4 4 .1 3 .0 1-61 2 .1 2 .1 1 .9 1 .6 1 .3 1.2 1.3 1 .0 1 .2 3 .9 3 .3 3 .7 2 -61 2 .0 2 .0 1.8 1 .5 1 .3 1.1 1.2 0 .9 1 .1 3 .1 2 .4 2.1 1 ,0 1 1 .7 3.2 1 ,0 1 9 .6 1 ,0 2 0 .1 1 ,0 2 2 .8 1 ,0 0 5 .5 1 ,0 1 8 .2 1 ,0 2 5 .7 1 ,0 3 5 .0 0 .6 1 ,0 3 6 .6 1 ,0 4 8 .8 3 -6 1 2 .2 2 .2 2 .0 1 .6 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.4 1 .7 3 .4 3 .0 3.0 2 .7 4 .8 4 -61 2 .2 2 .1 2 .0 1.8 1 .5 1 .4 1«6 1.4 1 .6 3 .1 2 .6 2 .6 2 .2 3 .0 1.2 1-62 1 .9 1 .6 1.7 1 .5 1.3 1.2 1.3 1.1 1 .2 2 .3 1 .9 1 .7 I .1 1.3 —0 .4 - 1 .9 2 -62 2.0 1 .9 1.8 1 .6 1 .4 1.3 1.4 1.2 1 .4 2 .4 2 .0 1.9 1.5 1.6 0 .8 0 .6 3 .1 3-62 2.0 1 .9 1.8 1 .6 1.5 1.4 1 .5 1 .3 1 .5 2 .4 2 .1 1.9 1 .7 1.9 1 .2 1 .1 2*7 4-77 1-76 2-78 i —78 4-7 8 1-79 ¿-79 3-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-60 1-61 2-61 3-61 4-81 4-79 1 ,0 5 1 .9 1 ,0 4 6 .9 1 ,0 5 4 .6 2 .3 1 ,0 6 0 .9 1-82 ^ - 8 2 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED N O VEM B ER 18 BY FED ER A L 19# 1 9 8 2 RESERVE BANK ^ ^ T T T O U l T CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES* C O M P Q U N O g Q A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E TERMINAL B I L L I O N S OF 0 0 LLARS ANNUAL RATES INITIAL QUARTER QUARTER 4-77 1-78 2-7 8 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 1 2 9 .6 1 4 4 .1 4-78 2 7 .0 33 *8 1 7 .1 2 7 .6 3 2 .3 2 3 .1 2 9 .5 2 2 .3 2 4 .4 1 6 .1 1 5 .6 1 9 .9 2 1 .0 1 4 .2 1 3 .2 1 8 .9 1 9 .6 1 3 .9 1 3 .1 B .2 1 4 .8 1 4 .8 9 .4 8 .0 3 .2 1 5 .4 1 5 .5 1 1 .0 1 0 .0 6 .5 0.1 8 .3 7 .7 3 .6 8 .1 7 .5 3 .8 2 .4 - 0 .6 7 .6 4 .3 3 .1 0 .5 3 .8 0 .5 - 0 .9 2-80 3-80 2-61 4 .5 1 4 9 .9 1 5 9 .9 1 6 1 .2 1 6 4 .5 5 .8 1 0 .7 1 6 9 .6 1 3 .0 0 .6 1 6 5 .0 - 1 0 .4 1 7 2 .9 7 .3 6 .9 -2.2 - 8 .5 - 1 2 .3 - 1 9 .4 - 2 3 .5 - 5 1 .5 2.0 - 2 .2 - 4 .2 - 6 .1 - 7 .3 - 1 8 .7 3 6 .2 - 1 .1 - 2 .6 - 5 .5 - 4 .2 - 1 1 .2 2 0 .0 5 .6 - 1 .0 - 3 .2 - 1 .7 - 6 .5 1 6 .3 7 .4 9 .2 - 1 2 .6 1 .3 - 8 .2 - 1 4 .5 - 3 3 .0 - 8 .7 3 .6 - 3 .3 - 6 .1 - 1 2 .9 1 3 .2 - 9 .6 0 .3 - 5 .7 - 8 .3 - 1 3 .5 - 1 .8 - 5 .7 - 8 .1 0 .2 - 2 .1 - 2 .6 -3. - 5 .7 - 3 .2 - 3 .8 - 4 .9 - 7 .7 1 4 4 .3 1 5 5 .9 1 5 8 .1 1 6 1 .6 1 4 6 .2 1 5 0 .8 4-81 3 .7 3 .0 0.2 - 1 .0 1-62 - 2 .0 - 2 .9 - 5 .8 - 7 .3 - 9 .6 - 1 0 .6 - 1 2 .2 - 1 4 .4 - 1 4 .8 - 1 8 .4 - 1 2 .2 - 1 8 .4 - 2 2 .5 - 2 8 .8 - 2 7 .4 - 4 1 .8 - 6 0 .3 1 1 5 .0 2-8? - 1 .6 - 2 .5 - 5 .2 - 6 .5 - 6 .7 - 9 .6 - 1 0 .9 - 1 2 .8 - 1 3 .1 - 1 6 .2 - 1 0 .2 - 1 5 .4 - 1 8 .5 - 2 3 .1 - 2 0 .5 - 2 9 .3 - 3 5 .6 1 1 6 .3 3-82 - 1 .1 - 1 .9 - 4 .4 - 5 .6 - 7 .6 - 6 .3 - 9 .5 - 1 1 .1 - 1 1 .2 - 1 3 .9 - 6 .2 - 1 2 .6 - 1 4 .9 - 1 8 .4 - 1 5 .1 - 2 1 .0 - 2 3 .0 7 .3 1 0 .0 4-77 1^78 2^78 5^75 4 - ?8 1^79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-01 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 - 6 .3 5^79 4-^79 ----------------------------------------------------------------------------* P- N A T IO N A L IN C O M E 1 4 4 .9 - 1 4 .8 1 1 9 .IP 1n 1 T U l q ^ r Y É R B A S IS W t E U H IN A 'R Y P ftÉ P A R E D N O VEM BER &Y F E D E R A L 1 9 , 1962 RESERVf BANK HISTO RICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA The NIPA e s t im a t e s f o r 19 2 9 -76 a re in The N a t io n a l Incom e and P r o d u c t A c c o u n ts o f th e U n ite d S t a t e s , 1 9 2 9 - 7 6 : S t a t is t ic a l T a b le s (S t o c k number T5T73-010 -O 0 101 -1 » p r i c e 5 1 0 . 0 0 ) . E s t im a t e s f o r 1 9 7 7 - 8 1 w i l l a p p e a r in th e J u l y 1982 S u rv e y C u r r e n t B u s i n e s s . E s t im a t e s f o r th e p e r io d s s i n c e , a p p e a r in s u b s q u e n t is s u e s o f t h e m o n th ly S u rv e y o f C u r r e n t B u s in e s s . T h e se p u b l i c a t i o n s p r e s e n t th e r e s u l t s o f th e c o m p re h e n s iv e r e v i s i o n o f th e n a t io n a l incom e and p ro d u c t a c c o u n ts d e s c r ib e d in th e December 1980 S u r v e y , and a r e a v a i l a b l e fro m th e S u p e r in t e n d e n t o f D ocum ents, U .S . G overnm en t P r i n t i n g O f f i c e , W a s h in g to n , D .C . 2 0 4 0 2 . F o r f u r t h e r in f o r m a t io n , w r it e t o th e N a t io n a l Incom e and W e a lth D i v i s i o n (B E - 5 4 ) B u re a u o f Econom ic A n a l y s i s , U .S . D e p artm e n t o f Com merce, W a s h in g to n , D .C . 2 0 2 3 0 . 19 OF ST. IN VEN TO RIES COMPARED WITH M A N U F A C T U R I N G A N D MONTHLY SALES* T R A D E . 68 68 . 64 64 . 60 60 56 . 52 52 . 48 48 . 44 44 40 40 . 36 36 . 32 32 1968 1969 1970 * R AT I OS BASED ON SHADE D AREAS REPRESENT .ATEST DA T A 197! 1972 SEASONALLY PLOTTED 1973 ADJUSTED PERIODS SEPTEMBER OF 1974 1975 1976 DA T A . BUSINESS 1977 1978 SOURCE-, 1979 1980 11. S . D E P A R T M E N T 1981 OF 1982 C OMME R CE RECESSIONS PRELIMINARY PREPARED 2 0 BY F E D E R A L RESERVE BANK C: . 0 UI
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