View original document

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

JUNE 1994

N ational
Economic
Trends
No New Tax Revenues?
The Laffer Curve and
the Omnibus Budget
Reconciliation Act of 1993
Last August, Congress passed the Omnibus Budget
Reconciliation Act of 1993 (OBRA-93), which in­
creased some tax rates, retroactive to January 1993,
and cut spending in an attempt to reduce the deficit.
The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects that
the new law will reduce the cumulative budget deficit
by $433 billion from 1994 to 1998 with a package of
$241 billion in new revenue and $77 billion in direct
spending cuts. The balance of the deficit reduction will
come from reduced debt servicing and caps on discre­
tionary spending for fiscal years (FY) 1996 to 1998.
Some economists argued that the revenue projec­
tions were optimistic because they relied heavily on
higher marginal tax rates for high-income individuals.
Indeed, nearly half of the projected revenue increase,
$115 billion, comes from higher taxes imposed on these
individuals. Critics argue that high-income taxpayers
are very sensitive to changes in their marginal tax rate.
Increasing their marginal tax rates would not increase
their tax payments since, the critics assume, these
individuals are beyond the upward-sloping portion of
the “Laffer Curve,” which indicates that tax revenues
increase initially with tax rates, but eventually decline
with further increases. If true, the shortfall in revenue
would make the OBRA-93’s deficit reduction goals
unattainable.

Thus far, the targets set in OBRA-93 are being
met; for the first seven months of FY 1994 the federal
deficit fell 23.8 percent relative to the first seven
months of FY 1993. The reduction of the deficit
reflects an increase in revenues of 8.8 percent, while
outlays increased only 2 percent. These figures com­
pare favorably with the budget projections made by
the CBO in January of this year. These projections
show a decrease in the deficit of 12.6 percent from FY
1993, with revenue increasing 8.5 percent and outlays
increasing 4.7 percent. Undoubtedly, the recent unex­
pected strength of the U.S. economy — real Gross
Domestic Product has grown at a 5 percent annual rate
since the passage of OBRA-93 — has been important
in the slow growth of outlays, as improvements in the
economy reduce outlays for cyclical social programs.
Higher income automatically yields higher tax
revenues. Consequently, a portion of the 6.2 percent
increase in individual income tax receipts for the first
seven months of FY 1994 reflects a 4.9 percent rise in
personal income for this period, as compared to the
same period in FY 1993. Still, individual tax receipts
grew noticeably faster than personal income. This
fact suggests that, contrary to the predictions of tax
increase critics, higher marginal tax rates yielded
higher revenues, and OBRA-93 is likely to meet
or exceed the CBO’s projections for FY 1994.
— Peter Yoo

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System.
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research and Public Information Division. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing
Research and Public Information, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling 314-444-8809.
Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board. You can access FRED with a personal
computer and a
 modem at 314-621-1824.


C onsum er P rice Index - All Urban C onsum ers
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

10-92

3.9
3.4

3.0

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

1982-84=100
8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

3.4

12-92

2-93

4.3

11-92

1-93

141.7
142.1
2.6

142.4

1-93

3.2

2.9

2.6

2.6

2-93

3.4

3.2

3.1

3.4

4.3

3-93

3.3

3.1

3.0

3.1

3.4

2.5

4-93

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.4

3.7

3.4

4.3

5-93

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.2

3.4

3.1

3.4

6-93

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.8

2.9

2.5

2.5

1.7

0.8

7-93

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.4

2.3

1.7

1.3

1.7

8-93

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.0

2.5

3.4

9-93

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.2

1.8

1.7

2.0

2.1

0.8

10-93

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.8

2.5

4.2

11-93

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.7

2.9

2.8

3.8

3.3

12-93

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.8

2.7

3.3

2.9

2.5

1-94

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.5

1.9

1.2

0.0

2-94

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.7

2.3

1.9

1.7

3.3

3-94

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.5

3.7

4.2

4-94

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.3

2.3

3.0

2.9

1.6

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94




142.7
143.2
143.5
144.0
2.5

144.3
144.4
144.6
145.0
145.1
145.6
146.0
146.3
146.3
146.7
147.2
147.4

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 13, 1994

2

Consumer Price Index - Food
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

1982-84=100
8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94
139.0

10-92

0.0

11-92

-0.4

-0.9

12-92

0.6

0.9

2.6

1-93

0.4

0.6

1.3

0.0

2-93

1.0

1.3

2.0

1.7

3.5

3-93

1.3

1.6

2.2

2.0

3.1

2.6

4-93

1.5

1.7

2.3

2.2

2.9

2.6

2.6

138.9
139.2
139.2
139.6
139.9
140.2

5-93

2.3

2.6

3.2

3.3

4.2

4.4

5.3

8.0

6-93

1.6

1.8

2.2

2.2

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.2

-3.3

141.1

7-93

1.5

1.6

2.0

1.9

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.4

-1.7

0.0

8-93

1.7

1.9

2.2

2.2

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.2

0.3

2.2

4.3

9-93

1.9

2.0

2.3

2.3

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.4

1.1

2.6

3.9

3.5

10-93

2.2

2.4

2.7

2.7

3.0

2.9

3.0

3.0

2.1

3.5

4.6

4.8

6.1

2.1

3.3

4.1

4.0

4.3

2.6

2.7

3.7

4.5

4.5

4.9

4.3

6.1

140.7
140.7
141.2
141.6
142.3

11-93

2.2

2.4

2.7

2.7

2.9

2.9

2.9

3.0

12-93

2.5

2.6

2.9

2.9

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.3

1-94

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.1

2.9

3.4

3.3

3.2

2.3

2.1

-1.7

143.1

2.1

2.4

2.1

1.9

0.8

0.3

-2.5

-3.3

142.7

142.6
143.3

2-94

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.2

2.1

1.5

3-94

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.1

1.5

2.1

2.4

2.1

1.8

1.0

0.6

-1.1

-0.8

1.7

4-94

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.5

2.0

2.2

1.9

1.7

1.0

0.7

-0.6

-0.3

1.3

0.8

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

142.9
143.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 13, 1994

Consumer Price Index - Energy
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

10-92

6.6
4.7

4.7

2.9

2.3

-0.6

2-93

1.6

0.9

-1.5

-2.8

2.6

1.2

1.2

2.9

1982-84=100
8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

9.6

1-94

2-94

3-94

-3.4

2.9

7-93

-2.3

3-93

6-93

1.2

1-93

5-93

8.4

12-92

4-93

4.8

11-92

3-93

103.6
104.3
104.4
104.2
103.9
104.7

4-93

2.7

2.3

1.2

1.2

2.3

5.3

1.2

5-93

1.5

1.0

-0.2

-0.5

0.0

1.2

-2.8

-6.7

6-93

0.6

0.1

-1.0

-1.3

-1.1

-0.6

-3.8

-6.1

-5.6

104.8
104.2
103.7

7-93

0.6

0.1

-0.9

-1.1

-1.0

-0.5

-2.8

-4.1

-2.8

0.0

8-93

-0.2

-0.7

-1.7

-2.0

-2.0

-1.7

-3.9

-5.1

-4.5

-4.0

-7.8

9-93

-0.6

-1.1

-2.0

-2.3

-2.3

-2.1

-4.0

-5.0

-4.5

-4.2

-6.2

-4.6

10-93

1.2

0.9

0.2

0.1

0.4

0.9

-0.3

-0.6

0.7

2.3

3.1

9.1

24.6

11-93

0.3

0.0

-0.7

-0.8

-0.7

-0.4

-1.6

-2.0

-1.1

-0.2

-0.3

2.4

6.0

-9.9

12-93

-0.2

-0.6

-1.2

-1.4

-1.4

-1.2

-2.3

-2.7

-2.1

-1.5

-1.8

-0.3

1.2

-8.8

-7.8

1-94

-0.8

-1.2

-1.8

-2.0

-2.0

-1.9

-3.0

-3.4

-3.0

-2.6

-3.1

-2.1

-1.5

-8.9

-8.4

-8.9

2-94

0.3

0.1

-0.5

-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

-1.0

-1.3

-0.6

0.0

0.0

1.4

2.6

-2.3

0.4

4.8

20.5

3-94

0.6

0.3

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

0.2

-0.6

-0.7

-0.1

0.5

0.6

1.8

2.9

-0.9

1.5

4.7

12.3

4.7

4-94

0.3

0.1

-0.4

-0.5

-0.4

-0.2

-0.9

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.0

1.0

1.8

-1.5

0.2

2.4

6.4

0.0

-4.5

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94




103.7
103.0
102.6
104.5
103.6
102.9
102.1
103.7
104.1
103.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 13, 1994

3

P roducer P rice Index —F in ish ed Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compounded Aiinual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

Initial Month
1-93

2-93

10-92

1.0
0.6

-0.5

1.5

1.0

2.0

2.1

1.9

2.9

4.4

2.3

2.1

2.9

3.9

3.9

1982 = 100
8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

2.9

1-94

2-94

3-94

4.9

3-93

7-93

3.9

2-93

6-93

0.0

1-93

5-93

-1.0

12-92

4-93

2.9

11-92

3-93

124.0
123.9
123.9
124.3
124.8
125.1

4-93

2.8

2.8

3.5

4.4

4.6

4.4

5.9

5-93

2.4

2.4

2.9

3.5

3.4

2.9

2.9

0.0

6-93

1.5

1.3

1.7

1.9

1.6

0.7

0.0

-2.8

-5.6

7-93

1.4

1.2

1.5

1.7

1.3

0.6

0.0

-1.9

-2.8

0.0

8-93

0.4

0.1

0.2

0.2

-0.3

-1.1

-1.9

-3.8

-5.0

-4.7

-9.2

9-93

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.0

-0.7

-1.3

-2.7

-3.3

-2.5

-3.8

2.0

10-93

0.4

0.2

0.3

0.3

-0.1

-0.7

-1.2

-2.4

-2.8

-2.1

-2.8

0.5

-1.0

11-93

0.4

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.0

-0.5

-1.0

-1.9

-2.2

-1.5

-1.9

0.6

0.0

125.7
125.7
125.1
125.1
124.1
124.3
124.2
1.0

124.3

12-93

0.3

0.1

0.2

0.2

-0.1

-0.6

-1.0

-1.8

-2.0

-1.4

-1.7

0.2

-0.3

0.0

-1.0

1-94

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.2

-0.3

-0.6

-1.3

-1.4

-0.8

-1.0

0.8

0.5

1.0

1.0

2.9

2-94

0.8

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.2

0.0

-0.6

-0.6

0.0

0.0

1.6

1.6

2.2

2.6

4.4

5.9

3-94

0.9

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.8

0.4

0.2

-0.3

-0.3

0.3

0.4

1.8

1.8

2.3

2.7

3.9

4.4

2.9

4-94

0.8

0.7

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.3

0.1

-0.3

-0.3

0.2

0.2

1.5

1.4

1.8

1.9

2.7

2.6

1.0

-1.0

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94




4

124.2
124.5
125.1
125.4
125.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 12, 1994

Civilian E m p loym en t and U n em p lo y m en t Rate
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

126

119

i--- 1
--- 1
—

1988

--- 1
--- 1

1989

r

1990

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly comparable with previous data.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Month

Terminal
Month
9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

10-92

1.0
1.3

2.2

1.0

1.6

1.0

2-93

1.4

1.8

1.6

1.5

1.7

1.5

1.4

2.0

7-93

Thousands of
Persons
8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

2.7

1.3

6-93

0.2

3-93

5-93

1.9

1-93

4-93

2.6

12-92

3-93

-0.5

11-92

2-93

117,723
117,974
118,155
118,178
118,442
1.2

118,562

4-93

1.2

1.5

1.2

1.1

1.4

0.7

0.2

5-93

1.8

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.6

2.5

3.2

6.2

6-93

1.6

1.9

1.8

1.8

2.1

1.9

2.1

3.1

0.1

7-93

1.6

1.9

1.8

1.8

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.7

1.0

8-93

1.8

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.3

2.8

1.7

2.6

3.3

9-93

1.5

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.8

1.6

1.7

2.0

1.0

1.3

1.0

-1.2

10-93

1.7

1.9

1.8

1.8

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.3

1.5

1.9

1.9

1.3

3.8

11-93

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.5

1.9

2.3

2.4

2.2

3.9

12-93

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.6

2.1

2.5

2.6

2.4

3.7

1-94

2.7

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.3

3.5

3.8

3.5

4.0

4.4

4.6

6.2

6.9

8.5

13.8

2-94

2.7

2.9

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.2

3.4

3.7

3.5

3.9

4.2

4.3

5.5

5.9

6.6

8.2

2.9

118,585
119,180
119,187
1.9

119,370
119,692

"% ■
A -

119,568
119,941

4.0

120,332
120,661
121,971
122,258

3-94

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.2

2.9

3.2

3.4

3.4

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.6

0.3

-2.1

4-94

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.2

2.9

3.2

3.3

3.3

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.2

1.2

0.4

3.0

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94




122,037
122,338

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 6, 1994

P ayroll E m ploym en t
Seasonally Adjusted

Millions of Persons

Millions of Persons

125

125

115

115

105

105

95

85

75

-—
i

1988

|
—

i
—

—

i
—

1989

—

1990

65

r

i
—

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Thousands of
Persons

Initial Month
9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94
108,789

10-92

1.3

11-92

1.4

1.5

12-92

1.5

1.6

1.8

1-93

1.6

1.6

1.7

1.7

2-93

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.6

3.4

3-93

1.6

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

0.3

4-93

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

1.5

2.8

5-93

1.9

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

1.9

2.7

2.6

6-93

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.5

2.0

1.5

0.5

7-93

1.8

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.8

2.1

1.9

1.5

2.6

8-93

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.4

1.6

1.3

0.9

1.1

-0.4

9-93

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.5

1.7

1.5

1.2

1.5

0.9

10-93

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.5

1.7

1.5

1.3

1.5

1.2

2.0

1.8

11-93

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.7

1.5

2.1

2.1

2.4

12-93

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.9

1.8

1.6

1.8

1.7

2.2

2.2

2.4

2.5

1-94

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.5

1.7

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.3

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.1

-0.3

2-94

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.6

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.3

3.0

108,921
109,079
109,235
109,539
109,565
109,820
110,058
110,101
110,338
110,305
2.2

110,502
110,664
110,880
111,110
111,079
111,357

3-94

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.0

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.6

4.1

5.1

4-94

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.7

3.7

4.0

2.9

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94




111,821
112,088

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 6, 1994

Service-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Month

Terminal
Month
9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

Thousands of
Persons
1-94

2-94

3-94

10-92

1.9

11-92

1.9

1.9

12-92

2.0

2.1

2.4

1-93

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.0

2-93

2.3

2.4

2.6

2.6

3.3

3-93

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.2

1.1

4-93

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.6

4.1

5-93

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.9

2.7

3.5

3.0

6-93

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.4

2.9

2.2

1.5

7-93

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.9

2.6

2.4

3.2

8-93

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.0

1.6

1.7

0.2

9-93

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.5

2.2

2.0

2.1

1.6

3.0

10-93

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.1

1.9

2.0

1.6

2.3

1.6

11-93

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.1

1.9

2.0

1.7

2.2

1.9

2.2

12-93

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.0

2.4

2.2

2.6

1-94

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.1

1.9

1.7

1.8

1.5

1.8

1.5

1.5

1.2

-0.6

2-94

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.8

2.1

2.0

2.0

2.0

1.5

3.7

3-94

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.7

4.4

5.2

4-94

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.6

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.7

3.9

4.0

2.8

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

85,794
85,926
86,094
86,234
86,470
86,549
86,840
87,052
87,160
87,390
87,402
87,616
87,730
87,886
3.0

88,102
88,055
88,325
88,696
88,899

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Hay 6, 1994

Goods-Producing Employment
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92
10-92

-0.4
-0.5

-0.3

-0.1

0.1

0.2

4-93

Initial Month
Persons
6-93 7-93

5-93

Thousands of
8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

0.8

1-94

2-94

3-94

-0.5

1-93

3-93

0.0

12-92

2-93

-0.9

11-92

1-93

22,995
22,995
22,985
23,001

2-93

0.6

1.0

1.3

2.2

3.6

3-93

0.0

0.2

0.3

0.5

0.4

-2.7

4-93

-0.2

-0.1

-0.2

-0.1

-0.4

-2.3

-1.9

5-93

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

-1.1

-0.3

1.4

6-93

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.4

-0.6

-1.7

-1.3

-1.0

-3.3

23,069
23,016
22,980
23,006
22,941

7-93

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-1.3

-0.9

-0.6

-1.5

0.4

8-93

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.5

-0.7

-1.4

-1.2

-1.0

-1.8

-1.0

-2.3

9-93

-0.5

-0.5

-0.6

-0.6

-0.7

-1.4

-1.1

-1.0

-1.6

-1.0

-1.6

-0.9

10-93

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.3

-0.4

-0.9

-0.6

-0.4

-0.7

-0.1

-0.2

0.8

11-93

-0.1

0.0

0.0

0.0

0.0

-0.4

-0.1

0.1

-0.1

0.6

0.6

1.6

2.9

3.2

12-93

0.0

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.0

-0.3

0.0

0.2

0.0

0.6

0.6

1.4

2.1

2.0

0.7

1-94

0.0

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

-0.2

0.0

0.3

0.1

0.6

0.7

1.3

1.8

1.6

0.8

0.8

2-94

0.1

0.1

0.1

0.2

0.1

-0.2

0.1

0.3

0.2

0.6

0.6

1.1

1.5

1.3

0.7

0.6

0.4

3-94

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.5

0.5

0.2

0.5

0.7

0.6

1.1

1.2

1.7

2.1

2.0

1.7

2.0

2.7

5.0

4-94

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.7

0.7

0.4

0.7

0.9

0.9

1.3

1.4

1.9

2.3

2.2

2.0

2.4

2.9

4.2

3.4

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94




22,948
22,903
22,886
2.5

22,934
22,994
23,008
23,024
23,032
23,125
23,189

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 6, 1994

7

Change in th e E m p loym en t Cost Index and Its C om ponents
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total compensation is the sum of benefits and wages and salaries for private industry workers.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Total Compensation.
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

June 1989 = 100
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93
101.2

3-89

4.9

4-89

4.9

4.8

1-90

5.1

5.2

5.6

2-90

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.1

3-90

4.9

4.9

5.0

4.7

4.3

4-90

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.0

3.8

1-91

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.4

4.2

4.2

4.6

2-91

4.7

4.7

4.7

4.5

4.4

4.4

4.7

4.9

3-91

4.7

4.6

4.6

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.5

4.5

4.1

4-91

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.4

4.3

4.1

4.0

1-92

4.5

4.5

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.2

4.2

3.9

3.8

3.6

2-92

4.4

4.4

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.7

3.6

3.4

3.2

3-92

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.2

3.2

4-92

4.3

4.2

4.2

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.4

3.5

1-93

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.7

3.9

2-93

4.2

4.2

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.8

3.8

102.4
103.8
105.1
106.2
107.2
108.4
109.7
110.8
111.9
112.9
113.8
114.7
115.7
116.8
117.9

3-93

4.2

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.4

4-93

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.4

1-94

4.0

4.0

3.9

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.5

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

2.7

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

118.9
119.9
120.7

Data are for the last month of quarter.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
April 26, 1994

8

In d u strial P rod u ctio n
Seasonally Adjusted

-----1
---------- 1 1
---- -----r
i-----1

1988

1989

1990

1991

1993

1994

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

10-92

10.0
9.3

8.7

7.5

6.5

5.1

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

1987 = 100
8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

8.0

1-93

3-93

9.3

12-92

2-93

10.6

11-92

1-93

107.5
108.3
109.0
2.2

109.2

2-93

7.6

6.8

6.0

5.1

8.0

3-93

6.5

5.7

4.8

3.7

4.5

1.1

4-93

6.4

5.7

4.9

4.2

4.8

3.3

5.6

5-93

4.8

4.0

3.2

2.2

2.2

0.4

0.0

-5.3

6-93

4.8

4.1

3.3

2.6

2.7

1.4

1.5

-0.5

4.5

7-93

4.9

4.2

3.6

3.0

3.1

2.2

2.5

1.5

5.0

5.6

8-93

4.6

4.0

3.5

2.9

3.0

2.2

2.4

1.6

4.1

3.9

2.2

9-93

4.4

3.9

3.3

2.8

2.9

2.2

2.4

1.7

3.6

3.3

2.2

2.2

10-93

4.6

4.1

3.6

3.2

3.3

2.7

3.0

2.5

4.2

4.1

3.7

4.4

6.7

11-93

5.0

4.5

4.2

3.8

4.0

3.5

3.8

3.6

5.2

5.3

5.2

6.3

8.4

10.1

12-93

5.5

5.2

4.8

4.6

4.8

4.5

4.9

4.8

6.3

6.6

6.8

8.0

10.1

11.8

13.5

1-94

5.6

5.2

5.0

4.7

4.9

4.7

5.0

5.0

6.3

6.6

6.8

7.7

9.2

10.0

10.0

6.5

2-94

5.6

5.3

5.0

4.8

5.0

4.7

5.1

5.0

6.2

6.5

6.6

7.3

8.4

8.8

8.4

5.9

5.4

3-94

5.6

5.3

5.1

4.9

5.1

4.9

5.2

5.1

6.2

6.5

6.6

7.2

8.1

8.3

7.9

6.1

5.9

6.4

4-94

5.5

5.2

5.0

4.8

5.0

4.7

5.0

5.0

6.0

6.1

6.2

6.7

7.3

7.5

6.9

5.4

5.0

4.8

3.2

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94




109.9
110.0
110.5
110.0
110.4
110.9
111.1
111.3
111.9
112.8
114.0
114.6
115.1
115.7
116.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 16, 1994

P erso n a l In com e in 1987 Dollars
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

4.8

4.8

T------ 1
------ 1
------ ------- 1
------ 1
-------1
-------------- 1
------ 1

1988

1989

i

1

1990

i-------1
-------1
-------------- '------ 1
------ 1"

1991

1992

1993

1994

The personal consumption expenditures deflator is used to calculate real personal income
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Disposable Personal Income in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Month

Terninal
Month
9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
3-94

2-94

3,666.8

10-92

11.8

11-92

4.0

12-92

23.4

29.7

73.7

1-93

-0.2

-3.9

-4.2 -47.2

2-93

0.2

-2.5

-2.2 -26.6

1.9

3,656.9

-3.2

3,829.1
3,630.7
3,636.5
3,660.4

3-93

1.5

-0.4

0.3 -16.5

5.0

8.2

4-93

2.9

1.5

2.5 -10.2

7.2

9.9

11.7

5-93

2.7

1.4

2.2

-8.0

5.6

6.9

6.3

1.1

6-93

2.1

1.0

1.6

-7.1

4.0

4.6

3.4

-0.5

-2.1

7-93

1.5

0.4

0.9

-6.6

2.7

2.8

1.5

-1.7

-3.1

-4.1

8-93

2.7

1.8

2.4

-4.2

4.3

4.7

4.0

2.2

2.6

5.0

14.9

9-93

2.6

1.8

2.3

-3.6

4.0

4.3

3.6

2.1

2.3

3.9

8.1

3,694.2
3,697.7
3,691.2
3,678.5
3,721.3
1.6

3,726.3

10-93

2.7

2.0

2.5

-2.8

4.0

4.3

3.8

2.5

2.8

4.0

6.9

3.1

4.6

11-93

2.9

2.2

2.7

-2.1

4.1

4.4

3.9

2.9

3.2

4.2

6.4

3.7

4.8

5.0

12-93

3.2

2.6

3.1

-1.3

4.4

4.7

4.3

3.4

3.8

4.8

6.6

4.6

5.7

6.2

1-94

2.2

1.6

2.0

-2.1

3.0

3.1

2.6

1.7

1.7

2.3

3.4

1.3

1.2

0.1

2-94

3.2

2.7

3.1

-0.7

4.2

4.4

4.1

3.4

3.6

4.3

5.6

4.1

4.6

4.6

4.5

3.1

19.7

3-94

3.2

2.7

3.1

-0.4

4.2

4.4

4.0

3.4

3.6

4.3

5.3

4.0

4.4

4.4

4.3

3.2

11.3

3.6

4-94

2.7

2.2

2.6

-0.8

3.5

3.6

3.3

2.6

2.7

3.2

4.1

2.8

3.0

2.7

2.3

1.0

5.4

-1.0

-5.4

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

3-94




3,740.2
3,755.5
7.5

3,778.1

-2.3 -11.3

3,740.7
3,797.2
3,808.3
3.790.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 31, 1994

10

R etail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

B'Hlions of Dollars

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Retail Sales in 1982-84 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

Initial Month
Dollars
6-93 7-93

5-93

Millions of
8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

10-92

17.3

11-92

7.4
8.7

4.7

11.3

1-93

6.8

3.5

6.2

1.3

2-93

3.5

0.3

1.0

-3.9

3-93

0.6

-2.4

-2.6

4-93

3.4

1.2

1.8

-0.5

-1.0

3.1

21.5

5-93

3.5

1.7

2.2

0.5

0.3

3.5

12.7

4.4

6-93

3.6

2.0

2.5

1.1

1.0

3.6

9.7

4.2

3.9

7-93

3.6

2.2

2.7

1.5

1.6

3.8

8.3

4.3

4.2

4.4

8-93

3.8

2.5

3.0

2.0

2.1

4.0

7.7

4.5

4.5

4.7

5.0

9-93

3.4

2.3

2.7

1.7

1.8

3.4

6.3

3.5

3.3

3.1

2.4

-0.1

10-93

4.7

3.7

4.2

3.5

3.8

5.5

8.3

6.3

6.7

7.4

8.3

10.0

21.3

11-93

4.7

3.8

4.2

3.6

3.9

5.4

7.8

6.0

6.3

6.8

7.4

8.1

12.5

4.5

12-93

5.1

4.3

4.7

4.2

4.5

5.9

8.2

6.6

7.0

7.5

8.1

8.9

12.0

7.7

1-94

3.8

2.9

3.3

2.7

2.8

3.9

5.7

4.1

4.0

4.1

4.0

3.8

4.8

-0.2

2-94

4.7

4.0

4.3

3.9

4.1

5.2

7.0

5.6

5.8

6.0

6.2

6.4

7.8

4.7

4.7

1.7

20.7

3-94

5.4

4.7

5.1

4.7

4.9

6.1

7.8

6.6

6.9

7.2

7.5

7.9

9.3

7.1

7.7

6.6

18.9

4-94

4.5

3.8

4.1

3.7

3.9

4.8

6.3

5.1

5.2

5.3

5.4

5.5

6.3

4.0

3.9

2.2

8.3

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

3-94

-1.6

12-92

2-94

117,773
117,616
118,673
118,801
-8.7

117,898

-6.9 -10.7 -12.6

116,581
118,491
118,920
119,303
119,734
120,226
120,212
122,158
122,604
11.0

123,679
122,107

-2.4 -14.2

124,034
17.1

125,679

2.6 -10.1
2-94

124,564

3-94

Retail sales data deflated by CPI-U (1982-84=100).




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 12, 1994

11

In ven tories Com pared With M onthly Sales
Manufacturing and Trade

1.60

t ------1
------r—

|
------1
------1
------1
------------ 1
------1
—

1988

1989

‘i

i------1
------r

1990

1994

1993

1992

1991

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Manufacturing and Trade Inventories
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terninai
Month

Initial Month
8-92

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

Millions of
Dollars

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

9-92

-1.4

10-92

-0.5

0.5

11-92

0.4

1.3

2.1

12-92

0.7

1.4

1.9

1-93

1.4

2.1

2.7

3.0

4.3

2-93

1.7

2.3

2.8

3.0

3.7

3.1

3-93

2.3

2.9

3.5

3.8

4.5

4.6

6.1

4-93

2.6

3.2

3.6

3.9

4.5

4.5

5.3

4.4

5-93

2.6

3.1

3.5

3.8

4.2

4.1

4.5

3.7

3.0

6-93

2.4

2.9

3.2

3.3

3.6

3.5

3.5

2.7

1.9

0.8

7-93

2.2

2.6

2.8

2.9

3.1

2.9

2.9

2.1

1.3

0.5

0.2

8-93

2.3

2.6

2.8

2.9

3.1

2.9

2.9

2.2

1.7

1.3

1.5

2.8

9-93

2.3

2.6

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.3

1.9

1.6

1.9

2.7

2.7

10-93

2.3

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.2

1.9

1.6

1.9

2.4

2.2

1.7

11-93

2.6

2.8

3.0

3.1

3.2

3.1

3.1

2.8

2.5

2.5

2.8

3.4

3.7

4.1

6.6

12-93

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.3

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.4

-1.6

1-94

2.3

2.5

2.7

2.7

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.0

1.9

2.1

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.3

0.2

2.1

2-94

2.5

2.7

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.3

2.5

2.8

2.8

2.9

3.2

2.0

3.9

5.7

3-94

2.2

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.2

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.1

1.0

1.8

1.7

-2.2

9-92 10-92 11-92 12-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5-93

6-93

7-93

8-93

9-93 10-93 11-93 12-93

1-94

2-94

8-92

838,850




839,173
840,645
1.7

841,831
844,777
846,950
851,123
854,209
856,288
856,853
857,008
858,979
860,885
862,110
866,720
865,584
867,065
871,110
869,515

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 13, 1994

12

Gross D om estic P roduct
Seasonally Adjusted

Trillions of Dollars

1988

1989

1990

Trillions of Dollars

1991

1992

1993

1994

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Percentages are annual rates of change for periods indicated.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Teminal
Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

3-89

0.7
1.6

2.5

1.6

2.2

2.5

1.1

1.4

1.4

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.2

-0.8

-2.0

0.0

0.0

-0.3

-1.2

-2.1

-2.8

3-93

4-93

-3.2

1-91

2-93

-0.9

4-90

1-93

1.5

3-90

4-92

3.5

2-90

Billions of Dollars
3-92

1.5

1-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92

2-91

0.0

4-89

1-91

-2.4

4,839.0
4,856.7
4,898.3
4,917.1
4,906.5
4,867.2
4,837.8

2-91

0.2

0.2

0.0

-0.7

-1.3

-1.4

-0.5

1.5

3-91

0.3

0.3

0.2

-0.4

-0.7

-0.7

0.1

1.4

1.4

4-91

0.3

0.4

0.2

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

0.3

1.2

1.0

0.6

1-92

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.2

0.1

0.2

0.9

1.7

1.8

2.0

3.5

2-92

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.5

0.4

0.6

1.2

2.0

2.1

2.3

3.2

2.8

3-92

1.0

1.1

1.0

0.8

0.7

0.9

1.5

2.2

2.3

2.6

3.3

3.1

3.4

4-92

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.5

2.0

2.7

2.9

3.2

3.9

4.0

4.6

5.7

4,855.6
4,872.6
4,879.6
4,922.0
4,956.5
4,998.2
5,068.3

1-93

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.2

1.2

1.4

1.9

2.5

2.6

2.8

3.2

3.2

3.3

3.2

0.8

2-93

1.3

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.4

1.9

2.4

2.5

2.7

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.8

1.3

5,078.2
5,102.1

1.9

3-93

1.4

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.6

2.0

2.4

2.5

2.7

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.8

1.8

2.4

2.9

4-93

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.7

1.8

2.0

2.4

2.8

3.0

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.6

3.6

3.1

3.9

4.9

7.0

1-94

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.8

1.8

2.0

2.4

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.4

3.4

3.5

3.5

3.1

3.7

4.3

5.0

3.0

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5,138.3
5,225.6
5,264.1

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Hay 27, 1994

13

Im p licit Price D eflator for GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1988

1989

1990

1991

Percent

1992

1993

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Implicit Price Deflator
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

3-89

3.7
4.2

4.4

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1987 = 100
1-92

5.2

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

3.7

1-90

2-90

3.8

4-89

1-90

109.1
110.1
111.5

2-90

4.3

4.4

4.8

4.4

3-90

4.2

4.3

4.5

4.2

4.0

112.7

4-90

4.2

4.3

4.5

4.2

4.1

4.3

1-91

4.3

4.4

4.6

4.4

4.4

4.6

5.0

2-91

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.1

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.1

3-91

4.0

4.1

4.1

4.0

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.1

4-91

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.6

3.6

3.4

2.9

2.7

2.4

1-92

3.9

3.9

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.8

2-92

3.8

3.8

3.8

3.7

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.4

3.0

3-92

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.0

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.6

2.0

1.0

4-92

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.5

2.2

3.3

1-93

3.6

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.3

3.3

3.1

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

3.5

2-93

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.1

3-93

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.7

4-93

3.3

3.2

3.2

3.1

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.6

1-94

3.2

3.2

3.2

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

113.8
115.0
116.4

2.9

117.3
118.2

3.1

2.8
2.7
2.5

2.8
2.6
2.5

118.9

2.8
2.7
2.5

120.0

2.7
2.5
2.3

120.9

2.6

121.2

3.1

122.2
123.3

3.6

124.0

3.0

2.3
1.6

124.5

2.4

2.7

2.5

2.0

2.2

2.4

2.2

1.7

1.5

1.3

2.2

2.5

2.3

1.9

1.8

1.9

2.6

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

124.9
125.7

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 27, 1994

14

Final Sales in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

3-89

1.2
2.6

2.9

1.8

1.8

2.4

1.6

1.5

1.8

0.1

4-90

1.2

1.1

1.2

-0.2

0.0

0.6

0.4

0.4

-0.8

-0.9

-1.6

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

-2.7

2-93

3-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
4-93

-0.6

1-91

1-92

-0.4

3-90

4-91

5.2

2-90

3-91

0.7

1-90

2-91

1.8

4-89

1-91

4,823.0
4,831.8
4,893.6
4,889.0
0.5

4,895.6
4,888.0
4,855.2

2-91

0.8

0.7

0.6

-0.3

-0.2

-0.5

-0.4

1.9

3-91

0.7

0.5

0.5

-0.3

-0.3

-0.5

-0.4

0.8

-0.4

4-91

0.6

0.5

0.4

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0.3

0.5

-0.2

4,878.0
4,873.5
-0.1

4,872.5

1-92

0.9

0.9

0.9

0.3

0.4

0.4

0.6

1.5

1.3

2.2

4.5

2-92

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.5

0.6

0.6

0.8

1.5

1.3

1.9

2.9

1.4

3-92

1.2

1.1

1.2

0.8

0.9

0.9

1.2

1.8

1.8

2.4

3.2

2.5

3.7

4,926.9
4,943.8
4,988.6

4-92

1.5

1.5

1.5

1.2

1.4

1.5

1.7

2.4

2.5

3.0

3.8

3.6

4.7

5.8

1-93

1.3

1.3

1.4

1.0

1.2

1.2

1.4

2.0

2.0

2.4

2.9

2.5

2.8

2.4

-0.8

2-93

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.6

2.1

2.1

2.5

2.9

2.6

2.9

2.7

1.2

3.2

3-93

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.4

1.5

1.6

1.8

2.2

2.3

2.6

3.0

2.8

3.0

2.9

1.9

3.3

3.4

4-93

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.6

2.7

3.1

3.5

3.3

3.7

3.6

3.1

4.5

5.1

6.8

1-94

1.9

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.6

2.7

3.0

3.3

3.2

3.4

3.4

2.9

3.9

4.1

4.5

2.2

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

5,059.6
5,048.9
5,089.1
5,131.8
5,217.1
5,245.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Hay 27, 1994

Personal Consumption Expenditures in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92

2-91

3-89

1.9
2.2

1.8

1.8

1.5

1.8

1.9

1.6

1.9

1.5

1.1

0.8

0.7

0.1

-0.3

-2.7

1-91

0.5

0.2

0.0

-0.7

-1.2

-2.8

-2.8

2-91

0.7

0.4

0.3

-0.2

-0.4

-1.3

-0.6

1.8

3-91

0.8

0.5

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.6

0.0

1.5

1.3

4-91

0.7

0.4

0.4

0.1

-0.1

-0.5

0.0

1.0

0.7

0.0

1-92

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.6

0.5

0.3

0.9

1.8

1.9

2.2

4.3

2-92

1.1

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.7

0.5

1.0

1.8

1.8

2.0

3.0

1.8

3-92

1.3

1.2

1.2

1.1

1.1

0.9

1.5

2.2

2.3

2.6

3.4

3.0

4.2

4-92

1.6

1.5

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.5

2.0

2.7

2.9

3.2

4.0

3.8

4.9

4-93

2.1

4-90

3-93

0.9

3-90

2-93

2.8

2-90

1-93

0.8

1-90

4-92

2.9

4-89

Billions of Dollars
3-92

3,235.3
3,242.0
3,264.4
3,271.6
3,288.4
3,265.9
3,242.7
3,256.9
3,267.1
3,267.5
3,302.3
3,316.8
3,350.9
5.6

3,397.2

1-93

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.4

1.9

2.5

2.6

2.8

3.3

3.1

3.5

3.2

0.8

2-93

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

1.6

2.0

2.6

2.7

2.9

3.3

3.1

3.5

3.3

2.1

3.4

3,403.8

3-93

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

2.2

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.5

3.3

3.7

3.5

2.9

3.9

4.4

4-93

2.0

1.9

2.0

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.4

2.9

3.0

3.2

3.6

3.5

3.8

3.7

3.2

4.1

4.4

4.4

1-94

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.6

3.0

3.1

3.3

3.7

3.6

3.9

3.9

3.5

4.2

4.4

4.5

4.6

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

3,432.7
3,469.6
3,506.9
3,546.3

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Hav 27, 1994

15

Residential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-89

-6.8
-2.3

0.4

2-90

-6.6

-6.3

3-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
4-93

3-93

-5.9

1-90

4-90

-7.6

4-89

3-90

-9.9 -10.5 -12.0 -20.2 -22.1

211.2
208.0
7.1

211.6

-6.4 -18.3

201.2
189.0

4-90

-12.5 -13.5 -15.2 -21.6 -23.2 -24.3

1-91

-14.5 -15.6 -17.4 -22.6 -24.0 -24.9 -25.5

2-91

-12.7 -13.4 -14.5 -18.3 -18.3 -17.0 -13.1

1.2

176.3
163.8
164.3

3-91

-9.8 -10.0 -10.6 -13.2 -12.2

-9.5

-4.0

9.0

17.3

4-91

-7.1

-7.1

-7.2

-9.1

-7.5

-4.2

1.6

12.6

18.8

20.3

1-92

-5.2

-4.9

-4.8

-6.2

-4.3

-1.0

4.5

13.7

18.2

18.6

16.8

2-92

-3.2

-2.8

-2.4

-3.4

-1.4

2.0

7.2

15.3

19.1

19.6

19.3

21.8

3-92

-2.8

-2.4

-2.1

-3.0

-1.1

1.9

6.3

12.8

15.3

14.7

12.9

11.0

1.2

4-92

-0.6

-0.1

0.4

-0.2

1.8

4.9

9.3

15.4

18.0

18.1

17.6

17.8

15.9

32.8

1-93

-0.5

0.0

0.5

0.0

1.8

4.6

8.4

13.6

15.5

15.2

14.2

13.5

10.9

16.1

1.5

2-93

-1.1

-0.6

-0.2

-0.8

0.8

3.2

6.5

10.8

12.0

11.3

9.8

8.5

5.4

6.9

-4.1

-9.5

3-93

-0.4

0.1

0.5

0.1

1.6

3.9

7.0

10.9

12.0

11.4

10.1

9.1

6.7

8.1

1.0

0.7

11.9

4-93

1.2

1.7

2.2

1.9

3.5

5.8

8.8

12.6

13.8

13.5

12.6

12.0

10.5

12.5

7.9

10.1

21.4

31.7

1-94

1.5

2.1

2.5

2.3

3.8

6.0

8.7

12.2

13.3

12.9

12.1

11.5

10.1

11.6

7.8

9.5

16.6

19.0

7.6

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

171.0
179.1
186.2
195.6
196.2
210.6
211.4
206.2
212.1
227.2
231.4

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 27, 1994

Nonresidential Fixed Investment in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92

2-91

Billions of Dollars
3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93
541.8

3-89

-0.3

4-89

-2.0

-3.7

1-90

2.0

3.1

10.4

2-90

0.4

0.7

2.9

-4.1

3-90

1.3

1.7

3.6

0.4

5.0

4-90

-0.2

-0.2

0.7

-2.4

-1.6

1-91

-2.2

-2.5

-2.3

-5.2

-5.6 -10.5 -13.2

2-91

-2.3

-2.6

-2.4

-4.7

-4.9

-8.0

-8.1

-2.7

3-91

-2.4

-2.7

-2.6

-4.6

-4.7

-7.0

-6.7

-3.3

-3.8

4-91

-2.7

-3.0

-2.9

-4.7

-4.8

-6.6

-6.3

-3.9

-4.5

-5.1

1-92

-2.2

-2.4

-2.2

-3.7

-3.6

-5.0

-4.4

-2.1

-1.9

-0.9

3.5

2-92

-0.8

-0.9

-0.6

-1.7

-1.5

-2.3

-1.4

1.1

2.1

4.2

9.2

15.1

3-92

-0.5

-0.5

-0.2

-1.2

-0.9

-1.6

-0.7

1.6

2.5

4.1

7.4

9.3

3.8

4-92

0.1

0.1

0.4

-0.4

-0.1

-0.6

0.3

2.4

3.3

4.8

7.4

8.8

5.7

7.6

1-93

1.0

1.1

1.4

0.7

1.2

0.8

1.8

3.8

4.8

6.3

8.8

10.1

8.5

11.0

14.4

2-93

1.9

2.0

2.5

1.9

2.4

2.1

3.2

5.2

6.2

7.7

10.1

11.4

10.5

12.8

15.5

16.6

3-93

2.2

2.4

2.8

2.3

2.8

2.6

3.6

5.4

6.4

7.7

9.7

10.7

9.9

11.4

12.7

11.9

7.4

4-93

3.2

3.4

3.9

3.5

4.1

4.0

5.0

6.9

7.9

9.2

11.2

12.3

11.9

13.6

15.1

15.3

14.7

22.5

1-94

3.4

3.6

4.0

3.6

4.2

4.1

5.1

6.8

7.7

8.9

10.6

11.5

11.0

12.3

13.2

12.9

11.7

14.0

6.1

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

536.7
550.2
544.5
551.2
540.2

-7.7

521.4
517.8
512.8
506.1
510.5
528.8
533.8
543.7
562.3
584.3
594.8
625.7
635.0

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Hay 27, 1994

16

Exports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
4-93

Initial Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

3-89

6.8
8.5

12.6

8.3

10.9

9.8

3-90

6.2

7.5

5.8

2.7

6.7

8.0

6.7

5.0

3.7

5.6

6.5

5.2

3.5

2.2

4.3

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

9.6

1-91

4-91

-1.9

4-90

3-91

12.1

2-90

2-91

13.1

1-90

1-91

0.8

4-89

4-90

472.9
487.7
501.8
7.6

511.1
508.6
520.4
-0.8

519.4

2-91

7.2

8.2

7.4

6.5

6.2

9.1

8.8

19.4

3-91

6.8

7.5

6.8

5.9

5.6

7.5

6.8

10.9

3.0

4-91

7.4

8.2

7.6

6.9

6.8

8.7

8.4

11.7

8.0

13.3

1-92

7.2

7.8

7.3

6.7

6.5

8.0

7.7

9.9

7.0

9.0

542.9
546.9
564.2
571.0

4.9

2-92

6.5

7.0

6.5

5.8

5.6

6.8

6.3

7.8

5.0

5.7

2.1

-0.6

3-92

6.5

7.0

6.5

5.9

5.7

6.7

6.3

7.5

5.3

5.9

3.6

2.9

6.5

4-92

6.7

7.1

6.6

6.2

6.0

6.9

6.6

7.7

5.9

6.5

4.9

4.8

7.6

8.8

1-93

6.0

6.4

5.9

5.4

5.2

6.0

5.6

6.4

4.7

4.9

3.4

3.0

4.2

3.0

-2.4

2-93

5.9

6.2

5.8

5.3

5.1

5.8

5.4

6.1

4.5

4.8

3.4

3.1

4.0

3.2

0.5

570.2
579.3
591.6
588.0
593.2

3.6

3-93

5.5

5.8

5.3

4.8

4.6

5.2

4.8

5.4

3.9

4.0

2.8

2.4

3.0

2.2

0.1

1.3

-0.9

4-93

6.2

6.6

6.2

5.8

5.7

6.3

6.0

6.6

5.5

5.7

4.8

4.8

5.7

5.6

4.8

7.3

9.2

20.4

1-94

5.9

6.1

5.7

5.4

5.2

5.7

5.5

6.0

4.8

5.0

4.2

4.1

4.7

4.5

3.6

5.2

5.7

9.2

-1.0

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

591.9
620.0
618.4

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 27, 1994

Imports in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-89

4.9

1-90

5.1

4.4

5.2

4.8

5.5

4.2

3.7

3.8

2.9

1.9

1.0

0.4

-1.3

-4.4

Billions of Dollars
3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

0.5

4-90

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92

2-91

5.4

3-90

1-91

5.6

2-90

4-90

6.5

4-89

3-90

550.5
3.3

555.0
562.6
570.0
570.7
-9.1

557.2

1-91

-0.1

-1.2

-2.0

-3.8

-6.7 -10.1 -11.1

2-91

1.3

0.6

0.1

-0.9

-2.4

-3.4

-0.4

11.7

3-91

2.4

1.9

1.7

1.1

0.3

0.2

3.5

11.7

11.8

4-91

2.8

2.4

2.3

1.8

1.2

1.4

4.2

9.9

9.0

6.3

1-92

2.9

2.5

2.5

2.1

1.6

1.8

4.1

8.4

7.3

5.1

3.8

2-92

3.9

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.3

3.7

6.0

9.8

9.3

8.6

9.7

15.9

3-92

4.3

4.1

4.2

4.1

3.9

4.4

6.5

9.7

9.3

8.7

9.5

12.5

4-92

4.4

4.3

4.3

4.2

4.1

4.5

6.4

9.1

8.7

8.1

8.5

10.2

7.4

5.6

1-93

4.9

4.8

4.9

4.8

4.8

5.2

6.9

9.4

9.1

8.7

9.2

10.5

8.8

8.6

11.6

2-93

5.4

5.3

5.5

5.4

5.5

5.9

7.5

9.9

9.6

9.3

9.8

11.1

9.9

10.1

12.5

13.3

3-93

5.4

5.4

5.5

5.5

5.5

5.9

7.4

9.5

9.2

8.9

9.3

10.2

9.1

9.1

10.3

9.6

6.0

4-93

6.0

6.0

6.1

6.2

6.2

6.7

8.1

10.1

9.9

9.7

10.1

11.1

10.3

10.5

11.8

11.8

11.1

16.4

1-94

6.1

6.1

6.3

6.3

6.4

6.8

8.2

10.0

9.8

9.6

10.0

10.8

10.1

10.2

11.1

11.0

10.3

12.5

8.6

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

541.0
556.2
571.9
580.7
586.2
608.2
9.2

621.8
630.3
647.9
668.4
678.2
704.5
719.2

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 27, 1994

17

Government Purchases of Goods and Services in 1987 Dollars
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Initial Quarter

Terminal
Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

3-89

2.3
3.8

3.5

7.0

2-90

3.1

2.7

4.0

1.1

3-90

2.4

1.9

2.4

0.2

-0.6

4-90

2.9

2.6

3.3

2.1

2.6

5.8

1-91

2.9

2.7

3.2

2.2

2.6

4.3

2.8

2-91

2.7

2.5

2.9

2.1

2.3

3.3

2.1

1.4

3-91

2.2

1.9

2.2

1.4

1.5

2.0

0.7

-0.3

-2.0

4-91

1.5

1.2

1.3

0.5

0.4

0.6

-0.7

-1.8

-3.4

-4.7

1-92

1.6

1.3

1.5

0.8

0.8

1.0

0.1

-0.6

-1.3

-0.9

3.0

2-92

1.4

1.1

1.2

0.6

0.5

0.7

-0.1

-0.7

-1.2

-1.0

1.0

-1.0

3-92

1.6

1.4

1.5

0.9

0.9

1.1

0.5

0.1

-0.2

0.3

2.0

1.5

4-92

1.4

1.2

1.2

0.7

0.7

0.8

0.2

-0.1

-0.4

-0.1

1.1

0.5

1.3

-1.4

1-93

0.8

0.6

0.6

0.1

0.0

0.1

-0.5

-0.9

-1.3

-1.2

-0.4

-1.3

-1.3

-3.9

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
4-93

3-93

0.2

1-90

2-93

4.5

4-89

1-93

-6.4

912.2
912.6
928.1
930.6
929.2
942.4
948.9
952.3
947.6
936.2
943.1
940.7
4.1

950.2
946.9
931.3

2-93

1.1

0.8

0.9

0.4

0.4

0.5

-0.1

-0.4

-0.6

-0.4

0.3

-0.2

0.0

-1.3

-1.2

4.3

3-93

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.0

-0.3

-0.5

-0.3

0.3

-0.1

0.1

-0.9

-0.7

2.2

0.3

4-93

1.0

0.8

0.8

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.0

-0.3

-0.4

-0.3

0.3

-0.1

0.1

-0.7

-0.5

1.5

0.1

0.0

1-94

0.7

0.5

0.5

0.1

0.1

0.1

-0.3

-0.6

-0.7

-0.6

-0.1

-0.5

-0.5

-1.2

-1.2

0.2

-1.1

-1.8

-3.6

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

941.1
941.7
941.7
933.1

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Hay 27, 1994

Corporate Profits
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92

2-91

Billions of Dollars
3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93
357.3

3-89

-12.9

4-89

-8.2

-3.1

1-90

4.6

14.7

35.7

2-90

10.7

19.9

33.3

3-90

-0.5

2.9

4.9

-7.7 -35.0

4-90

-1.3

1.2

2.3

-6.8 -21.4

-5.0

1-91

-0.1

2.2

3.3

-3.5 -12.8

1.0

7.4

2-91

0.1

2.1

3.0

-2.5

-9.4

1.2

4.5

3-91

-1.3

0.2

0.7

-4.2 -10.0

-2.3

-1.4

354.5
382.6
409.3

31.0

367.5
362.8
369.3
370.8

1.6

359.0

-5.5 -12.1

4-91

1.0

2.6

3.4

-0.6

-5.0

2.5

4.4

3.4

4.4

24.0

1-92

3.8

5.6

6.7

3.5

0.1

7.6

10.3

11.0

14.3

30.4

378.8
409.9

37.1

2-92

3.6

5.3

6.2

3.3

0.3

6.7

8.8

9.1

11.0

20.0

3-92

-0.2

0.9

1.3

-1.6

-4.7

0.0

0.7

-0.3

-0.7

2.4

4-92

5.0

6.6

7.4

5.2

2.9

8.3

10.1

10.5

12.0

17.6

16.0

9.7

1-93

4.2

5.6

6.3

4.1

2.0

6.7

8.1

8.2

9.1

13.2

11.1

5.4

6.7

38.2

-6.6

2-93

5.5

6.9

7.6

5.7

3.8

8.3

9.8

10.1

11.2

14.9

13.5

9.3

11.3

34.2

8.6

26.3

3-93

5.7

7.0

7.7

6.0

4.2

8.4

9.7

10.0

11.0

14.2

12.9

9.3

10.9

27.5

8.9

17.6

9.4

4-93

7.3

8.6

9.4

7.8

6.4

10.5

11.9

12.3

13.4

16.7

15.8

13.0

15.0

29.5

15.6

24.0

22.9

1-94

5.4

6.5

7.1

5.5

4.0

7.6

8.6

8.7

9.4

11.8

10.5

7.6

8.4

18.6

6.3

9.8

4.8

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

18.1

411.7

1.8

367.5

-4.0 -19.6 -36.5

439.5

14.0 104.6

432.1
458.1
468.5
38.1

507.9

2.5 -23.9
3-93

474.4

4-93

Corporate profits tfith capital consumption and inventory valuation adjustments. First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Hay 27 1994

18

Gross Saving as a P ercen t of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving (personal saving plus business saving) plus government surplus or deficit.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Private Saving
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92

2-91

Billions of Dollars
3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

3-89

0.1

4-89

4.4

8.9

1-90

9.4

14.3

20.1

2-90

9.6

12.9

15.0

10.1

888.5

3-90

1.4

1.8

-0.5

-9.4 -25.5

825.5

4-90

4.2

5.1

4.2

-0.7

-5.6

19.5

1-91

7.4

8.7

8.7

6.0

4.7

24.0

28.8

2-91

7.4

8.5

8.4

6.2

5.2

18.1

17.4

3-91

5.1

5.7

5.3

3.0

1.6

9.8

6.8

4-91

6.9

7.7

7.6

5.9

5.2

12.7

11.1

5.7

5.1

1-92

6.9

7.6

7.5

6.0

5.4

11.7

10.2

5.9

5.6

15.4

6.6

2-92

6.8

7.4

7.3

5.9

5.4

10.8

9.4

5.9

5.6

12.1

6.1

5.7

3-92

7.2

7.8

7.7

6.6

6.2

11.0

9.8

6.9

6.9

12.1

8.1

8.9

811.2
828.6
867.4

863.1
919.4
7.0

935.0

-2.8 -11.6

906.6
25.0

958.7
974.1
987.7
12.2

1,016.5

4-92

5.2

5.6

5.4

4.1

3.5

7.4

6.0

3.1

2.4

5.5

1.1

-0.6

1-93

6.4

6.9

6.8

5.7

5.3

9.0

7.9

5.6

5.4

8.5

5.5

5.2

2-93

5.1

5.4

5.2

4.1

3.6

6.8

5.6

3.3

2.8

5.1

2.0

1.2

0.1

-3.7

3.9 -13.5

3-93

4.8

5.1

4.8

3.8

3.3

6.2

5.1

2.9

2.5

4.4

1.8

1.0

0.1

-2.7

2.7

-6.9

0.2

-3.7 -17.3
5.0

1.6

969.4
24.9

1,024.8
988.3
988.7

4-93

5.2

5.5

5.3

4.3

3.9

6.6

5.6

3.8

3.4

5.3

3.0

2.5

2.0

0.1

5.0

-0.9

6.0

12.2

1-94

5.1

5.3

5.1

4.3

3.9

6.4

5.4

3.7

3.4

5.0

3.0

2.6

2.1

0.6

4.6

0.0

5.0

7.5

2.9

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1,017.5
1,024.9

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 27, 1994

19

B u sin ess P rodu ctivity and C om pensation
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

f

Hou rly Com pen sat on

'

W

______

. A . ___________

/

\

J

— ^

V
/

1_____ ___ _____

/

>

t
t

t

\

Output Per Ho jr

____

v

f
-2 i

1

l

1

1

1988

1

1

1

1989

1

1

... 1

1990

1

1

1

1991

1

1

1

... i

1992

.... T

1993

1

I

-2

1994

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector Output per Hour
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terninal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

3-89

-0.7
0.1

0.9

0.9

1.7

2.6

3-90

0.5

o
»
H

1.3

1.1

0.2

0.6

0.7

0.4

-1.1

4-91

1982 = 100
1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

-1.1

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

-1.1

4-90

3-91

1.8

2-90

2-91

0.0

1-90

1-91

-1.4

4-89

4-90

109.7
109.7
110.2
3.3

111.1
110.8
110.5

1-91

0.4

0.7

0.9

0.6

-0.2

0.2

1.5

2-91

0.7

1.0

1.2

1.0

0.5

1.0

2.0

2.5

110.9

3-91

0.7

1.0

1.1

1.0

0.5

0.9

1.6

1.6

0.7

4-91

1.0

1.2

1.4

1.3

1.0

1.4

2.1

2.3

2.2

3.6

1-92

1.3

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.5

2.0

2.6

2.9

3.0

4.2

4.7

2-92

1.4

1.7

1.8

1.8

1.7

2.0

2.6

2.8

2.9

3.6

3.6

2.5

3-92

1.6

1.9

2.1

2.1

1.9

2.3

2.8

3.0

3.1

3.8

3.8

3.4

4.2

4-92

1.8

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.5

2.9

3.2

3.3

3.8

3.8

3.5

4.0

3.8

1-93

1.5

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.8

2.1

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.8

2.7

2.2

2.1

1.0

-1.7

2-93

1.4

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.9

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.4

2.2

1.7

1.6

0.7

-0.9

111.6
111.8
112.8
114.1
114.8
116.0
117.1
116.6
116.6

0.0

3-93

1.6

1.8

1.9

1.9

1.8

2.0

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.6

2.4

2.0

1.9

1.4

0.6

1.7

3.5

4-93

1.9

2.1

2.2

2.2

2.1

2.4

2.7

2.8

2.8

3.0

3.0

2.7

2.8

2.5

2.1

3.4

5.2

7.0

1-94

1.8

2.0

2.1

2.1

2.0

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.2

1.8

2.7

3.7

3.8

0.7

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93




117.6
119.6
119.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 5, 1994

20

N e t F e d e ra l D e b t
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Initial Quarter
1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

2-89

6.5
7.3

8.1

9.1

10.3

11.8

9.6

10.6

11.7

13.2

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Billions of
Dollars
3-93

15.0

2-90

4-90

8.7

1-90

3-90

7.5

4-89

2-90

5.6

3-89

1-90

2,151.7
2,190.8
2,236.9
2,316.3
11.5

2,380.4

3-90

10.0

10.9

11.8 12.8

11.7

11.9

4-90

10.5

11.3

12.1

12.3

12.7

13.6

1-91

10.3

11.5

11.3

11.6

11.5

10.5

11.8

12.5

12.6

12.3

13.9

16.1

12.0 11.7
12.0 11.7
12.2 11.9
11.8 11.6

12.5

12.9

9.7

12.3

12.5

10.7

11.7

12.5

12.6

11.5

12.4

13.0

2-91

10.5

11.6 12.2 11.5
11.1 11.6 12.1 11.6

3-91

11.0

11.7

4-91

12.0 12.0
11.0 11.5 11.9 12.2 11.9 12.0
11.1 11.6 12.0 12.3 12.1 12.1
11.0 11.5 11.8 12.1 11.8 11.8
10.8 11.2 11.5 11.7 11.4 11.4

1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92

10.9

11.0

11.5

12.2
11.9

12.7

12.3

12.3

2,448.3
2,527.5
9.1

2,583.4
2,656.6
2,757.6
2,822.2
2,901.1
13.2

2,992.5

12.0

12.0

11.0

11.5

11.4

9.6

11.0

11.3

11.3

11.2

10.3

10.4

10.0

8.5

7.4

3,061.7

10.7

10.6

9.7

9.7

9.2

7.9

7.1

6.9

11.0

10.9

10.2

10.3

10.0

9.2

9.1

10.0

13.2

3,116.5

1-93

10.5

10.9

11.1

11.3

2-93

10.7

11.0

11.3

11.4

11.0 11.0 10.9 10.6
11.2 11.1 11.1 10.8

3-93

10.4

10.6

10.9

11.0

10.7

10.7

10.6

10.3

10.4

10.2

9.5

9.5

9.1

8.3

8.0

8.3

9.0

4.9

4-93

10.2

10.5

10.7

10.8

10.5

10.4

10.3

10.1

10.1

10.0

9.3

9.3

8.9

8.2

7.9

8.1

8.5

6.2

7.5

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

3,168.6
3,268.6
3,308.0
3,368.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 27, 1994

FEDERAL G O VER NM EN T DEBT
(b illio n s o f d o lla rs )
S e a s o n a lly A d ju s te d E nd o f M o n th T o ta ls

1
Federal debt held
Gross
federal debt

1988 March
June
September
December

1989 March
June
September
December

1990 March
June
September
December

1991 March
June
September
December

1992 March
June
September
December

1993 March
June
September
December

2487.7
2548.8
2613.8
2673.0
2738.8
2801.7
2869.3
2942.2
3048.3
3146.3
3246.4
3353.0
3460.5
3541.4
3680.1
3787.6
3876.1
3988.9
4081.1
4160.9
4226.4
4356.4
4429.2
4517.6

by agencies
and trusts

Net
federal debt

499.0
528.4
552.2
584.4
617.4
650.6
679.0
701.9
734.2
766.9
799.0
820.6
880.5
886.3
923.9
958.5
978.8
998.6
1021.1
1036.4
1059.0
1090.0
1122.3
1139.8

1988.5
2021.2
2062.0
2086.6
2122.5
2151.7
2190.8
2236.9
2316.3
2380.4
2448.3
2527.5
2583.4
2656.6
2757.6
2822.2
2901.1
2992.5
3061.7
3116.5
3168.6
3268.6
3308.0
3368.7

Federal debt held
by Federal
Reserve Banks

220.9
227.1
232.3
231.7
232.8
231.4
223.6
221.4
223.9
231.1
235.5
251.3
253.0
255.0
268.0
272.1
274.0
277.0
300.1
291.7
312.7
328.5
329.7
331.9

Federal debt held
by private
investors

Federal debt held
by foreign
investors

1765.0
1796.5
1830.5
1855.1
1886.9
1919.9
1967.3
2013.2

331.0
343.3
348.5
363.1
375.1
367.3
398.5
429.2

2096.5
2153.8
2217.0
2286.0
2339.8
2411.3
2500.1
2560.4
2640.9
2727.5
2777.5
2836.6
2869.2
2953.2
2995.0
3044.7

420.5
426.0
443.9
456.6
463.8
472.7
480.7
488.8
508.4
529.1
538.4
546.4
566.6
567.6
595.9
619.6

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors). Sources: Original
data may be found in the Treasury Bulletin and also in the Federal Reserve Bulletin; seasonally adjusted series prepared by this Bank.
Data have been revised to reflect changed seasonal adjustment factors.




21

FEDERAL GOVERNMENT BUDGETS
(billions of dollars, quarterly totals seasonally adjusted at annual rates)

Quarters

Receipts___________
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

__________Expenditures_________
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

Surplus or d e fic it(-)
National
Cyclically
income accounts
adjusted
budget
budget

1986 1
2
3
4

809.4
814.2
828.2
856.8

816.4
832.2
852.1
875.5

992.7
1038.0
1047.9
1034.3

1001.4
1045.2
1032.4
1038.7

-183.3
-223.8
-219.7
-177.5

-185.0
-213.0
-180.3
-163.2

1987 1
2
3
4

858.4
928.6
924.5
943.5

875.1
938.1
927.2
930.0

1048.1
1058.9
1059.0
1096.3

1057.4
1060.4
1065.6
1103.0

-189.7
-130.3
-134.5
-152.7

-182.3
-122.3
-138.4
-173.0

1988 1
2
3
4

940.5
970.4
977.8
1000.6

924.9
949.5
953.0
971.4

1098.0
1105.0
1097.3
1135.5

1098.0
1111.4
1098.2
1156.1

-157.5
-134.6
-119.5
-134.9

-173.1
-161.9
-145.2
-184.7

1989 1
2
3
4

1050.9
1064.5
1053.6
1068.3

1014.3
1032.2
1020.2
1035.4

1160.8
1174.2
1181.5
1209.8

1181.0
1187.3
1182.0
1208.2

-110.0
-109.7
-128.0
-141.5

-166.7
-155.1
-161.8
-172.8

1990 1
2
3
4

1091.3
1114.5
1123.7
1115.8

1061.7
1093.4
1116.0
1132.1

1257.8
1266.5
1268.3
1306.9

1252.2
1275.4
1273.6
1311.2

-166.4
-152.0
-144.6
-191.0

-190.5
-182.0
-157.6
-179.1

1991 1
2
3
4

1115.8
1120.3
1132.6
1142.5

1160.1
1173.7

1257.9
1319.3

N.A.
N.A.

-145.2
- 206.2
-217.7
- 244.7

- 97.8
-145.6

N.A.
N.A.

1261.0
1326.5
1350.2
1387.2

1992 1
2
3
4

1165.9
1176.1
1169.1
1221.1

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1436.1
1456.0
1459.8
1485.3

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-270.2
-279.9
- 290.7
- 264.2

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1993 1
2
3
4

1218.4
1268.0
1275.9
1315.7

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1481.9
1490.6
1488.5
1522.6

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

-263.5
-222.6
-212.7
- 207.0

N.A.
N.A.
N.A.
N.A.

1994 1

1339.9

N.A.

1504.6

N.A.

-164.7

N.A.

N.A.
N.A.

N.A. — Not Available
Fiscal years
Actual
1987

1986

1988

Estimates
1993

1994

1995

$ 1153.2
1408.1

$ 1249.1
1483.8

$ 1353.8

$ - 221.2 $ -1 4 9 .8 $ -1 5 5 .2 $ -1 5 2 .5 $ -2 2 1 .4 $ -2 6 9 .5 $ -2 9 0 .4 $ -2 5 4 .9

$ -2 3 4 .8

$ -1 6 5 .1

1989

1990

1991

1992

Total budget
$

Receipts
Outlays
Surplus or deficit

(- )

769.1
990.3

$

854.1 $ 909.0
1003.9
1064.1

$

990.7
1143.2

$ 1031.3 $ 1054.3 $ 1090.5
1252.7
1323.8
1380.9

1518.9

Calendar years
National incom accounts
e
budget
$

Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit(

-)

827.2
1028.2

$

913.8 $ 972.3
1065.6
1109.0

$ 1059.3
1181.6

$ 1107.4 $ 1127.8 $ 1183.0 $ 1269.5
1273.6

1331.2

1459.3

1495.9

$ - 201.0 $ -1 5 1 .8 $ -1 3 6 .6 $ -1 2 2 .3 $ -1 6 6 .2 $ -2 0 3 .4 $ -2 7 6 .3 $ -2 2 6 .4

Cyclically adjusted budget
$

Receipts
Expenditures
Surplus or deficit( -

)

844.1 $ 917.6 $ 949.7
1029.4
1071.6
1115.9

$ 1025.5 $ 1100.8
1189.6

1278.1

$ - 185.4 $ -1 5 4 .0 $ -1 6 6 .2 $ -1 6 4 .1

$ -1 7 7 .3

Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs from October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off-budget.
Estimates from O M B’s Fiscal 1995 Budget (February 7, 1994).
Cyclically adjusted budget data are in process of revision.
Totals may not add due to rounding.
Source: Office of Management and Budget and U.S. Department of Commerce.




22

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

G overnm ent D e fic it(-)/S u r p lu s ( + )
Seasonally Adjusted

Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

0

0

-5 0

-1 0 0

-1 0 0

-1 5 0

-1 5 0

-2 0 0

-2 5 0

-2 5 0

-3 0 0

-3 5 0

i -----1 •"
-----

■---------- 1
>
---------- r

1988

1989

1990

">---------- 1
---------- r

1991

- 1---------- 1
---------- r

1992

---------- 1
---------- r

-3 5 0

1994

1993

National income accounts basis
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Defense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92

2-91

Billions of Dollars
3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93
305.3

3-89

9.9

4-89

2.9

-3.6

1-90

6.3

4.5

13.3

2-90

4.8

3.2

6.7

0.5

302.5
312.1
312.5
309.1

3-90

2.9

1.2

2.9

-1.9

-4.3

4-90

5.4

4.5

6.6

4.5

6.5

18.5

322.5

1-91

6.2

5.6

7.6

6.2

8.1

14.9

11.5

2-91

4.6

3.9

5.2

3.6

4.4

7.5

2.4

-6.0

331.4

3-91

3.4

2.6

3.5

1.9

2.2

3.9

-0.5

-6.1

-6.1

4-91

1.7

0.9

1.4

-0.2

-0.3

0.5

-3.5

-8.0

-9.0 -11.9

1-92

1.7

0.9

1.4

0.0

0.0

0.7

-2.5

-5.8

-5.7

-5.5

1.4

2-92

1.3

0.6

1.0

-0.2

-0.3

0.2

-2.5

-5.1

-4.9

-4.5

-0.5

-2.4

326.3
321.2
311.2
312.3
310.4

3-92

1.9

1.2

1.7

0.6

0.6

1.2

-1.0

-3.0

-2.4

-1.4

2.4

2.8

8.4

4-92

1.6

1.0

1.4

0.4

0.4

0.9

-1.1

-2.7

-2.2

-1.4

1.4

1.5

3.4

1-93

0.6

0.0

0.2

-0.8

-0.9

-0.6

-2.5

-4.1

-3.8

-3.4

-1.6

-2.4

-2.4

-7.4 -13.1

2-93

0.8

0.2

0.5

-0.4

-0.5

-0.2

-1.9

-3.3

-2.9

-2.4

-0.8

-1.2

-0.9

-3.8

-5.1

3.7

3-93

0.3

-0.3

-0.1

-0.9

-1.1

-0.8

-2.4

-3.7

-3.4

-3.1

-1.7

-2.2

-2.2

-4.7

-5.8

-1.9

-7.2

4-93

0.1

-0.5

-0.3

-1.1

-1.2

-1.0

-2.5

-3.6

-3.4

-3.1

-1.9

-2.4

-2.4

-4.4

-5.2

-2.4

-5.4

-3.5

1-94

-0.4

-0.9

-0.8

-1.6

-1.7

-1.6

-2.9

-4.1

-3.9

-3.7

-2.7

-3.2

-3.3

-5.1

-5.9

-4.0

-6.4

-6.1

-8.5

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

316.7
-1.3

315.7
304.8
307.6
301.9
299.2
292.6

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
May 27, 1994

23

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

Subscriber:
Please include address label w ith
su bscription inquiries or address changes.

Federal Nondefense Expenditures
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

Initial Quarter
Annual Rates
3-91 4-91 1-92 2-92

2-91

Billions of Dollars
3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93
876.2

3-89

0.1

4-89

7.3

15.0

1-90

10.7

16.5

18.0

2-90

8.9

12.0

10.6

3.6

3-90

7.5

9.5

7.7

2.9

2.2

4-90

8.1

9.8

8.5

5.5

6.5

1-91

3.5

4.0

2.0

-1.7

-3.4

2-91

6.9

7.9

6.7

4.6

4.8

5.7

3.2

907.3
945.7
954.0
959.2
984.4

10.9

929.6

-6.1 -20.5

1,000.2

34.0

1,029.0

3-91

7.4

8.4

7.5

5.8

6.2

7.3

6.1

22.5

12.0

4-91

8.6

9.6

8.9

7.7

8.4

9.6

9.3

21.5

15.7

19.6

1-92

9.5

10.5

10.0

9.0

9.8

11.1

11.2

20.9

16.8

19.3

19.0

2-92

9.4

10.2

9.8

8.9

9.6

10.7

10.6

18.2

14.5

15.4

13.4

8.0

3-92

8.5

9.3

8.8

7.9

8.4

9.2

8.9

14.8

11.3

11.1

8.4

3.5

-0.9

4-92

8.6

9.3

8.8

8.0

8.5

9.2

9.0

14.0

11.0

10.8

8.7

5.5

4.2

9.6

1-93

8.2

8.8

8.3

7.6

7.9

8.5

8.3

12.5

9.8

9.4

7.4

4.7

3.7

6.0

2.6

2-93

7.8

8.3

7.9

7.1

7.4

7.9

7.6

11.3

8.8

8.3

6.5

4.2

3.3

4.7

2.3

2.0

3-93

7.4

7.9

7.4

6.7

6.9

7.3

7.0

10.3

7.9

7.4

5.8

3.7

2.9

3.8

1.9

1.6

1.2

4-93

7.7

8.2

7.8

7.1

7.4

7.8

7.5

10.5

8.4

8.0

6.6

5.0

4.5

5.6

4.6

5.3

6.9

13.0

1-94

7.1

7.5

7.1

6.4

6.6

6.9

6.6

9.2

7.2

6.8

5.4

3.9

3.3

4.0

2.9

3.0

3.3

4.3

-3.7

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

1-91

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1,076.0
1,123.8
1,145.6
1,143.1
1,169.6
1,177.1
1,183.0
1,186.6
1,223.4
1,212.0

First quarter data are preliminary estimates.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Hay 27, 1994

24


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102