Full text of National Economic Trends : June 1988
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National Economic Trends June 1988 Net exports rose in the first quarter of this year, reducing the record deficit of the previous quarter. Net exports is the GNP-based measure of the nation’s annual rate of exports of goods and services, including factor income abroad, less its imports of goods and services. This measure rose from —$124.3 billion in the fourth quarter of 1987 to —$111.1 billion in the first quarter, roughly its average level in 1986. The first-quarter rise was the result of a $27.7 billion increase in exports and a $14.5 billion increase in imports. The nominal value of exports has been booming upward since 1986. Exports now total $485.8 billion, or 10.4 percent of nominal GNP, the highest share since the trough of 8.9 percent of GNP in 1986, but well below the previous peak of 12.8 percent in 1980. Real exports, which were only 10.2 percent of real GNP in 1986, rose to 12.2 percent in the first quarter of 1988, the same as their historical record share in 1980. The export price deflator has risen only 2 percent since 1986, substantially less than the rise in the GNP deflator, shifting the relative price of exports down 2.3 percent from 1986 to early 1988. This decrease continues a previous declining trend; the relative price of exports fell 17 percent from 1980 to 1986. The fall in the relative price of exports played a dominant role in the decline in the share of exports in GNP over the 1980-to-1986 period. Imports, meanwhile, also have risen, reaching 12.8 percent of GNP in the first quarter of 1988, up from 11.4 percent in 1986 and 11.7 percent in 1980. Since 1986, the relative price of imports increased only 3.8 percent, despite the large decline in the value of the dollar that began in 1985. The volume of imports has grown faster than real GNP since 1986, accounting for most of the rise in the share of imports in GNP. Despite the resurgence of U.S. export volume over the past two years, the nominal trade deficit, or net exports, failed to improve until early this year. Net exports as a share of GNP have declined from 1.2 percent in 1980 to —2.4 percent early this year. Less than one-third of this worsening is due to the rise in the nominal import share, while the rest is due to a decline in the relative price of U.S. export goods. A reversal of the relative price decline for imports has begun to emerge, albeit weakly. A comparable reversal for export goods has not yet materialized. Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System. —John A. Tatom T O T A L C I V I L I A N 1 E MP L O Y ME N T C O MP O U N D E D ANNUAL R A T E S O F C HA NG E 4-87 6-8 7 5-97 THOUSANDS OF PE R S O N S MONT H 7-87 OD 3-87 11-87 ? 2-8 7 •o 1 1-87 00 1 00 INITIAL 12-86 11-86 OD TERMI NAL MONTH 10-86 12-87 1-88 2-88 3— 88 4-88 110*457 I 1-86 2.0 12-86 2. 5 2. 2 1-87 3.0 3. 1 3.9 2-87 3. 2 3.3 3.8 L 10 » 6 5 7 ' 111 « o í * ! 111,344 3.6 3-87 2.8 2. 7 2.9 2.4 1.2 4-87 2.9 3.0 3. 1 2.9 2. 5 3.8 111,455 5-87 3.4 3.4 3.7 3.6 3. 6 4.8 5.8 6-87 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.8 2. 6 3.1 2.7 -0.4 7-87 3.0 3.0 3. 1 2.9 2. 8 3.2 3.0 I .6 8-87 3. 1 3. 1 3.3 3.2 3, 1 3.5 3.4 2 .6 4. 1 9-87 2. 7 2.6 2.7 2.5 2,4 2.6 2.3 I .4 2. 1 1.2 -1 .9 10-87 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.6 2, 5 2.7 2.5 1.9 2.5 2.0 0.9 3.7 I 1-87 2.8 2. 8 2.8 2.7 2. 6 2.8 2.6 2.1 2.6 2. 3 1.6 3.4 111,806 112,334 112,300 1 12 « 6 39 3.7 113,050 4.5 112,672 113,210 3.2 113,504 12-87 ?. 8 2.7 2.8 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.2 2.6 2.4 1.9 3.1 2.9 2.6 1-88 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2. 7 2.9 2.8 2.4 2.0 2.7 2.3 3.4 3.3 3.3 4. 1 2-88 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2. 8 2.9 2.8 2.5 2. 0 2.7 2.4 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.0 113,744 114,129 114,409 3-88 2.5 2. 5 2.5 2.4 2. 3 2.4 2.2 I .9 2. 1 2.0 1.6 2.2 1.9 1.6 1.3 -O .l -3.2 4-88 2. 7 ?. 7 2. 7 2.7 2. 6 2.7 2.6 2.3 2.6 2.5 2.2 2 .8 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.1 1.6 6.6 5-88 2.3 2»? 2 .2 2.1 2 .0 2,1 2*0 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.4 1,8 1.5 1.2 1.0 0.2 -0.7 0.5 -5.3 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-97 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-8 7 11-87 12-87 L-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 INITIAL 114,103 MONT H 114,713 114,195 ' P R 6 P A R EO BY F E O E R A L R E S E R V É BANK OF S T . L O U I S J U N E 3♦ 1 9 8 8 _____________________________________________________ P A YROLL EMPLOYMENT* C O H P Q U N O E 0 A NNUA L R A T E S OF C HA NG E T E R M! NAL_______________________ ________________________________________________________I N I T I A L MONT H________ __________________________________________________________________________T HOU SA NOS OF PERSONS MONT H 3-86 4-80 1-87 3-87 2-8 7 4-87 0-87 1-88 2-00 \ 0 - l S6 n - 8 6 1 2 - 8 6 6-0? 9 - 0 7 1 0 - 0 7 1 1 - 8 7 1 2 - 87 5-87 7-5 7 I 1-86 100,349 2 8 100,571 2 7 2.7 1-87 2 7 2. 7 2.7 2-87 2 7 2.7 2.7 100,795 2 .1 101,016 3-87 2 8 2.7 2.8 2,8 2. 9 4-87 3 0 3. 1 3.1 3,3 3.6 4.3 5-87 2 9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3. 3 3.4 6-87 2 9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.2 3.3 2.8 3.0 7-87 3 I 3. 1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.5 3.2 3.6 4,2 8-87 3 I 3. 1 3.1 3.2 3. 3 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.5 2.9 9-87 3 0 3. 1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.1 3.2 3.3 2.8 2,8 10-87 3 2 3.3 3.4 3.4 3. 5 3.6 3.5 3*7 CD 12-86 3*7 **2 9*6 I 1-87 3 3 3.3 3.4 3.4 3. 5 3.6 3.5 3.7 3. 8 3.7 4,0 4,6 3,6 12-87 3 3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.7 3.8 3.7 3.9 4.3 3,7 3,8 1-88 3 3 3. 3 3.4 3,4 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.8 4,0 3,5 3,4 3•1 2-88 3 4 3.5 3.5 3,6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.3 4.0 4,1 4 ,3 5,5 3-88 3 4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.8 3.9 3.8 4.0 4.2 3,9 3,9 4 ,0 4,4 101,260 101,615 101,829 2.6 102,078 102,430 102,672 102,906 103,371 103,678 104,001 104,262 104,729 3,4 105,020 4-88 5 4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.6 3,7 3*0 3,7 3,8 4,0 3,7 3,7 3,7 3,9 3,1 2,9 5-88 3 3 3.4 3.4 3.5 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.6 3,6 3,7 3,8 3,5 3,5 3,4 3,5 2*9 2,6 2,4 10-86 U -8 6 12 —86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 INITIAL 1 0 5 , 2 69P 105,478P MON T H ♦ R E V I S E D FROM 1 9 8 3 P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY F E D E R A L J W E 3 , 1988 2 RESERVE BANK OF ST, LOUFS EMPLOYMENT RATIO RATIO SC A L E M I L L I ON S OF PERSONS SEASONALLY M I L L I ONS AOJUSTED OF SCALE PERSONS 130 125 120 I 15 I 10 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOURCE: 1987 1988 U.S.D EPA RTM EN T OF LABOR BE GI NNI NG JANUARY 1 8 8 6 , TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE NEW PROCEDURES FOR ES T I M A T IN G MEASURES OF IMM IGR ATIO N AND EMIG RAT ION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0 . 3 2 . PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS IN D IC A T E D . LATEST DATA PLOTTED« MAY P R EL IM IN AR Y « R E V I S E D FROM 198 3 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. UNEMPLOYMENT SEASONALLY PERCENT LO UI S RATE ADJUSTED PERCENT 12.0 11 . 11.0 10. 10.0 9. 9.0 I. LO 7. 7.0 6. 6.0 5. 5.0 4. 4.0 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOURCE t U . S . 1987 1988 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF C I V I L I A N LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTED. MAY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO UI S C O N S U M E * PH IC E IN O E X F O * A L L U R B A N ___________________________ C O M P O U N D ED A N N U A L CON SUM ERS, S EA S O N A LLY A D JU S TE D R A T E S O F C H A N C E ________________________ T E R M I N A L _____________________________________ __________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONT H _____________________________________________________________________________ 1 9 8 2 - 8 4 * 100 MONTH 3-88 »-86 8— 87 1-87 6-87 2-87 7-8 7 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2— 8 6 5-87 3-87 4 - 87 1 0 - 8 6 1 1 - 06 1 2 —86 110.» I 1-86 3.3 I 2-86 2.8 2 2 1-87 4.8 5 6 2-87 4.7 5 2 6.7 4.4 3-87 4.9 5 3 6. 3 4.9 5. 5 4-87 5.0 5 3 6. 1 5.1 5. 5 5.5 110.^ 111.’ 9.0 111.8 112.3 112.8 5—8 7 4.9 5 1 5.7 4.9 5. 1 4.9 4 6-87 4.7 4 9 5.3 4.6 4. 6 4.3 3 8 7-87 4.5 4 7 5.0 4.4 113.2 3 4.3 4.1 3 6 113.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 113.8 11».3 8-87 4.6 4 7 5.1 4.5 4. 5 4.3 4 0 3 .9 4.3 5.4 9-87 4.5 4 6 4.9 4.3 4. 3 4.1 3 9 3.8 3.9 4.3 3.2 10-87 4.5 4 6 4.8 4.3 4. 3 4.2 3 9 3.9 4.C 4.3 3.7 4.3 114.6 115.0 115.3 I 1-87 4.4 4 4 4.6 4.2 4. 2 4.0 3 8 3 .7 3.8 4.0 3.5 3.7 3.2 12-87 4.2 4 3 4.4 4.0 4. 0 3.8 3 6 3.5 3.6 3.6 3.2 3.2 2.6 2.1 1-88 4.2 4 3 4.4 4.0 4.0 3.9 3 7 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.4 3.4 3.2 3.2 115.5 115.9 4.2 116.1 2-88 4. 1 4 I 4.2 3.9 3. 8 3.7 3 5 3 .4 3. 5 3.5 3.2 3.2 2.9 2.0 3.2 2.1 3-88 4.2 4 3 4.4 4.1 4.0 3.9 3 8 3.7 3.8 3. 8 3.6 3.7 3.6 3.7 4.2 4.2 6.4 4-88 4. 3 4 3 4.4 4.1 ». 1 4.0 3 9 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.5 4.6 5.0 5.3 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.4 4.5 5.3 4.7 4.2 6-87 8-87 9-87 11 — 07 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 5-88 4.2 10-86 3 4.4 4.1 4. t 4.0 3 9 3.9 I l - l 36 12-86 1-87 2-8 7 3-87 4- 137 5-87 4 7-8 7 I 0-8 7 116.7 117.2 I 17.6 IMTtAL MóWTFV PRE PAR60 JUNE 2 1 , BY F E D E R A L RÉ S E R V E BANK O F S T . L O U I S 1 9 8 8 ___________________________________________________ P R O D U C E R P R I C E I N D E X , F I N I S H E D GOODS - S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E O ______________________ C QMPQUNOE 0 ANNUA L R A T E S OF C HA NG E ______________ ___ TFRMI NAL MONTH 10-86 1 1-86 1.2 12-86 0.0 1-87 1.9 i n i t i a l I 1-86 12-86 1-87 2-8 7 3-07 »-87 5-87 6-8 7 1982 month 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-68 2-86 103.9 6.0 2.3 2. 3 4.1 10». 1 2.3 3-87 2.6 2.9 4.3 3.5 4. 7 4-87 3.3 3.8 5.0 4.7 5. 9 7.1 5-87 3. 2 3.5 4. 5 4.1 4. 7 4.7 10».5 105.1 105.3 2.3 105.4 6-87 2.9 3.2 3.9 3.5 3. 8 3.5 1.7 I .1 7-87 3.0 3.2 3.8 3.5 3. 7 3.5 2.3 2.3 3.5 8-87 3.0 3. 2 3.0 3.5 3. 7 3.5 2.6 2.7 3.5 3.5 105.7 106.0 9-87 3.2 3.4 3.9 3.6 3. 8 3.7 3.0 3.2 3.8 ».0 ».6 10 - 8 7 2.6 2.7 3. 1 2.8 2.9 2.6 1.9 1 .6 2. € 1.5 0.6 -3.3 1 1-87 2.5 2.6 3.0 2.7 2.7 2.5 1.8 I .7 1.8 1.» 0.0 - l . l l.l -0.3 -1.9 - l . l -3.3 0.» 0.0 3.5 106.1 2.4 2.1 2. 1 1.8 I. 1 1.0 1.0 2.5 2.2 2. 2 2.0 1.4 I .3 1.3 o -0.6 2-88 1.8 1.9 2.1 1.8 1.7 1.5 0.9 0.8 0.7 0.3 -0.2 - l . l -0.6 - l . l 0.0 -3.3 1.9 1.5 1.» 1.» 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.9 0.8 2.3 1.7 7.0 • 2.1 2.2 >0 2.1 2.2 o 106.2 1-88 5-88 0.5 106.» I 2-87 4-88 1 00 103.» -1 . 2 2.0 2.1 i »-86 103.5 2-87 3-88 3-6 6 105.9 106.2 105.9 2.2 2.4 2.1 2. 1 2.2 2. 3 2.5 2.3 2. 3 2.1 1.7 1 .7 1.7 1.5 1.3 0.8 1.5 1.6 2.9 2.7 5.8 ».6 2.4 2.5 2.7 2.5 2. 5 2.4 2.0 2 .0 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.» 2. 1 2.3 3.» 3.» 5.8 5.2 10-86 1 1-86 12-66 l-8t 2-8? 3-87 »-87 5-07 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 ¿-as 10-87 106.5 106.9 5.0 107.4 4-ÓÓ ---- n r * V * ¿1-- LIAl.V. 1--- pgEraftED BYTED EAÁt ftESEftvC ftSNK OP ST . LOUIS JUNE 4 10, 1 9 6 8 ________________________________ RATIO PR I C ES SCALE RATIO 1980 19 81 1982 1983 1984 CON SU M ER P R I C E S D A TA ARE ON A I 9 B 2 - B 4 - I 0 0 BA SE C P I - U D A TA B E G I N N I N G 1 9 8 3 I N C O R P O R A T E A R E N T A L P ERCENTAGES LAT ES T ARE A NNUA L DATA P L O T T E D . RATES Of CHANGE 1985 EQ U IV A L EN C E FOR P E R I O D S PRODUCER ARE LAT ES T PLOTTED. D A TA M EA SU R E 1987 1988 FOR H O M E O V N E R S H I P COSTS MAY SCALE P ERCENTAGES 1986 IN DIC ATED. PREPARED RATIO SCALE 1982-100 SEASON ALL Y ADJUSTED A N NUA L RATES OF CHANGE FOR BY F E D E R A I RES ERV E BANK OF PRICES P E RIO DS ST. LOUIS RATIO SCALE IN D IC A TED . MAY PREPARED 5 BY F E D E R A L RES ERV E BANK OF ST. LOUIS P R O D U C E R P R IC E IN D E X * F I N I S H F D CON SUM ER _________________________ C O W P O U N O EP A NN UA L R A T E S FO O D S - S E A S O N A L L Y A D J U S T E D O F C H A N 6 E _____________________________ T E R M I N A L ________________________________________________________________________________I N I T I A L MON T H___________________________________________________________________________ MONTH 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 8-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 4-8 8 3-87 4-87 9 -8 7 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2 - 88 3-88 -3.2 12-86 -4.8 -6.4 108.0 1-87 -6.4 -7.9 -9.5 -4.3 -4.7 -3.8 2.2 3-87 -3.5 -3.5 -2.5 1.1 4-87 -0.4 0.2 1.9 6.1 8.0 16.7 S— 87 1.6 2.4 4.2 8.0 10.0 15.3 14.0 6-87 1.2 I . 9 3.3 6.1 7. 1 9.6 6.2 108.2 100.2 0.0 109.6 1 10.8 - l . l 110.7 110.3 7-87 0.6 I . 1 2.2 4.3 4. 7 5.9 2.6 -2.7 -4.3 8-87 -0.3 0.0 0.8 2.4 2.4 2.9 -0.3 -4.6 -6.3 -8.4 9-87 0.4 0.8 1.6 3.1 3. 2 3.7 1.3 -1 .6 -1.8 -0.5 7.9 0. 1 0.4 l.l 2.4 2.4 2.7 0.5 - I .9 -2.2 -1.4 2.2 -3.2 0.2 12-87 -0.9 109.9 2.2 2. 2 2.5 0.6 -1 .4 -1.5 -0.8 1.8 - l . l l.l -0.3 0.6 0.4 0.5 -1.4 -3.4 -3.8 -3.7 -2.4 -5.7 -6.9 0. 5 -0.8 109.5 110.2 I . 1 110.0 -14.2 108.6 110.5 1-88 0.5 0. 8 1.4 2.3 2. 3 2.6 l.l -0.4 -0.3 0.4 2.2 0.8 2.2 2.8 2-88 -0.3 -0 . 1 0.3 l.l 1.0 l.l -0.3 - I .8 -1.9 -1.5 -0.4 -1.9 -1.6 -2.5 3.9 -12.3 3-88 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.7 1.6 1.8 0.5 -0.8 -0.7 -0. 3 0.9 -0.2 0.4 0.3 5.6 -2.2 4-88 0.4 0. 6 1. 1 1.8 1.8 2.0 0.8 -0.3 -0.2 0.2 1.4 0.5 l.l l.l 5.3 0.0 6.8 4 .4 5— 88 1.0 1.2 1.7 2.4 2.4 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.0 1.3 2.4 1.8 2.5 2.7 6.5 2.7 8.3 7.9 I 1.4 10 -8 6 11-86 12-^6 2-é? 3 -Ô 7 4-Ô7 $-87 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-97 10-87 11-87 1 2 -d T 1-98 2 - 08 3 - 88 4 -08 IN ITIA L 23.1 PR ISDUC FR PRICE I NDEX ♦ F I N I S H E O GOODS, E X C L U 0 I N 6 C O MP O U N D E D ANNUAL R A T E S OF INITIAL I 1-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-8 7 7-87 109.3 110.1 9. 1 110.5 I 11 . 5 MONTH PREPARED JUNE 1 0 , TERMINAL MONTH 10-86 100 108.9 2-87 I 1-87 « 109.5 1 1-86 10-87 1982 FOODS C HA NG E Of 6V F E D E R A L 1908 SEASONALLY LOUIS \ ,• O J U S T E O 1982 MONT H 8-87 ST. 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2 - 88 3 - 88 * 1 00 4-88 101.5 I 1-86 2.4 1 2- 8i > 1.8 1.2 1-87 4.8 6. 1 2-87 4.2 4.8 6.7 2.4 3-87 4.8 5.4 6.9 4.8 7.2 4-87 4.6 5.0 6.0 4.4 5.4 101 . 6 102.5 11.2 5-87 3.8 4.0 4.5 3.0 6-87 3.4 3.6 4.0 2.6 7-87 3.8 4.0 4.4 3.3 102.7 103.3 3.5 103.6 3. 2 1.2 -1.2 103.5 2. 7 1.2 0.0 1 .2 3.5 2.6 2.3 4.1 7.2 3.5 5.1 7.2 7.1 103.6 104.2 8-87 4.2 4.4 4.8 3.9 *. 1 3.5 9-87 4.2 4.4 4.8 4.0 4.2 3.7 3.7 5.0 6.3 5.9 4.7 10-87 3.6 3. 7 3.9 3.1 3. 2 2.7 2.5 3.3 3.8 2.7 0.6 -3.4 1 1-87 3.3 3.3 3.5 2.8 2. 9 2.3 2.2 2.7 3.0 2.0 0.4 -1.7 12-87 3.0 3. 1 3.2 2.6 2.6 2.1 1.9 2.3 2.5 1.6 0.3 - l . l 0.0 0.0 1-88 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.5 1.9 2.0 1.2 0.0 - l . l -0.4 -0.6 - l . l 2-88 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.0 1,9 1.5 1.3 I .5 1.6 0.8 -0.2 -1.1 -0.6 -0.8 - l . l 3-88 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.7 2.0 2. 1 1.4 0.7 0.0 0.7 0.9 1.1 2.3 5.9 4-88 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.1 2.0 2.3 2.4 1.9 1.3 0.8 1.5 1.8 2.3 3.5 5.9 5.9 5-88 3.0 3.0 3.1 2.6 2.6 2.3 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.2 1.7 1.3 2.0 2.3 2.8 3.8 5.5 5 .2 4.6 10-86 11-86 12-86 i-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 11-87 12-81 1-88 2 - 86 3-88 4 -ÔÔ 104.8 105.2 104.9 0^0 1 Ô— 8 7 104.9 104.9 104.8 - l . l 104.7 105.2 vrrrai------ Pft EPAt Ed B> FEOÊfcÀL RESERVE " J UNE 1 0 » 1988____________ 6 105.7 106.1 INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION RATIO SCALE 1977-100 SEASONALLY 1980 1981 1982 1983 1977-100 ADJUSTED 1984 1985 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS SCALE 1986 1987 1988 IN D IC A TE D . LATEST DATA PLO TTEDt MAY P RE L IM IN AR Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO UI S I N D U S T R I A L PRODUCT I ON COMPOUNDED AN*U*L RAT ES OF CHANGE TERMINAL INITIAL 1977 MON T H » 1 00 month 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 I 1-86 3.9 12-86 7.4 11.0 1-87 2.9 2.4 -5.5 2-87 <i . 4 4.5 1.4 8.9 3— 87 4. 1 4. 1 1.9 5.8 2.9 4-87 3.4 3. 3 1.4 3.9 1.4 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 125.7 126.8 126.2 127.1 127.4 127.4 0.0 5-87 4.0 4.0 2.7 4.8 3.5 3.8 7.8 6-87 4.6 4.7 3.7 5.6 4.8 5.4 8.3 8.8 7-87 5.7 5.9 5.2 7.1 6.7 7.7 10.4 11.8 14,9 128.2 129.1 130.6 8-87 5.7 5.9 5.2 6.9 6.6 7.3 9.2 9.7 10.2 5.7 9-87 5.0 5. 1 4.4 5.8 5.3 5.7 6.9 6.7 6.0 1.9 -1.8 131.2 10-87 5.7 5.9 5.4 6.7 6.4 7.0 8.2 8.2 8.1 5.9 6.1 14.6 I 1-87 5.8 6.0 5.5 6.7 6.4 6.9 7.9 8.0 7.8 6. 1 6.2 10.5 6.5 12-87 5.9 6.0 5.6 6.7 6.5 6.9 7.7 7.7 7.6 6.2 6.3 9.2 6.5 6.5 1-88 5.8 5.9 5.5 6.5 6.3 6.6 7.4 7.3 7.1 5.9 6.0 8.0 5.9 5.5 4.6 134.4 2-88 5.4 5.5 5.1 6.0 5.7 6.0 6.6 6.5 6.2 5.0 4.9 6.3 4.4 3.7 2.3 134.4 131.0 132.5 133.2 o • o 133.9 134.7 3-88 5.2 5.3 5.0 5.7 5.5 5.7 6.3 6.1 5.8 4.7 5.7 4.0 3.4 2.4 1.3 2.7 4-88 5.4 5.4 5.1 5.9 5.6 5.9 6.4 6.2 6.0 5.0 5.0 6.0 4.6 4.2 3.6 3.3 5.0 7.4 5-88 5.3 5.4 5.1 5.8 5.6 5.B 6.2 6.1 5.8 5.0 4.9 5*8 4.6 4.2 3.8 3.6 4.8 5.9 10-86 n-86 12-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-8 7 7-8 7 8-87 9-87 10-87 11 - 0: ¿¿-67 i-èè 2-88 1 3 5 . 5P 4.5 1 3 6 .OP 4-8d T W T T n n ra s m ------------------------------------------------------------ --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------___________________________________________________________________________________________________ J U N E Digitized ___________________________________ for FRASER 7 6V ÉÉôÉftAL ftÉSCÊVÏ BÀWK OF ST. LOUIS 15» 1 9 8 6 __________________________________________________ PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS MONTHLY OF DOLLARS TOTALS INCOME AT SEASONALLY A N NUAL RATIO RATES TRILLIONS ADJ UST ED OF SCALE DOLLARS 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.6 2.4 2. 2.2 2.0 1 .8 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 SOURCE« U . S . PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS 1987 1988 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IN D IC A TE D . LATEST DATA PLOTTED« MAY P R EL IM IN AR Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. P€*SONAL LO UI S IWCOHE COrrOtlHflfcD âftfttlIL .RATES QF CMAW«_______________ ___________________________________ BILLIONS OF -LERfllMAL_____________________________________________________________ I NIT IA L MONTH______________________________________________________________ POLLAR?------MONT H ANNUAL 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 2-8 7 3— 87 4-87 5-87 6— 8 7 8-87 7-8 7 9— 87 10-8 7 11-87 12-8 7 1-Ä8 2-88 3-88 RATES 4-88 3,590.3 11-86 4.4 12-06 6.1 7.9 1-87 6.2 7* 1 2-87 8* I 9.3 10.1 13.9 3-87 7.3 8.0 8.0 8.9 3,613.0 3.631.5 6.3 3,671.2 3,683.4 4. 1 3,701.9 4-87 7.1 7,6 7.6 8.0 5. 1 6,2 5-87 6.4 6. 7 6.5 6.5 4. 1 4.2 2.2 6-87 5.8 6.0 5.7 5.6 3.6 3.5 2.2 2.2 7-87 6.1 6.3 6.1 6.0 4.5 4.6 4.1 5,1 9,0 8-87 6.2 6.4 6.2 6.2 4. 9 5.1 4.8 5.7 7.5 7. 1 9-87 6.3 6.5 6. 3 6.3 5.3 5.5 5.4 6.2 7.5 7.3 7.5 15,9 3,708.5 3,7 15.3 3*739.2 3,760*6 3,783.2 1 0— 87 7.7 8. 1 8,1 8.3 7.6 8,1 8*4 9.7 11,7 12.9 I 1-87 6.7 6.9 6.9 6.9 6. 2 6.4 6.5 7.2 8.2 8.3 8..î_ 12-87 6.9 7. 1 7.1 7.2 6.5 6.8 6.9 7.5 a .5 8,5 8.9 9.4 3,854.4 25,1 . 3,839.8 -4.5 2,3 9.6 3,869.1 6.5 6.6 6.5 6.6 5.9 6.1 6.1 6.6 7.2 7. 1 7.1 7.0 1.6 4.7 0.2 6.5 6. 6 6.6 6.6 6.0 6.2 6.2 6.6 7.2 7. 1 7.1 7.0 2.9 5.5 3.5 6.9 3,891.1 3-88 7.0 7.2 7.1 7.2 6. 7 6.9 6.9 7.4 8.0 8.0 8.2 8.3 5.2 7.8 7.2 10.9 3,936.7 4-88 6. 7 6. 8 6.7 6.8 6,3 6.4 6.5 6,9 7,3 7,3 7,3 7,2 4,5 6,4 5,7 7,6 7.9 1,3 5-88 6.5 6.6 6.6 6.6 6. 1 6.3 6.3 6.6 7.0 6.9 6.9 6.9 4.5 6.0 5.4 6.7 6.6 2.7 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-87 3-87 4-87 5-87 6-87 7-87 8-87 9-87 10-87 11-87 12-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 2-87 INITIAL P- 3,869.6 ô 1-88 2-88 3,940.8 4. 1 3 , 9 5 4 . IP 4-88 MONT H PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS ___________________________________________________________________ i tr i m _____________________________ 8 RETAIL RATIO SALES SCALE BILLIONS OF 1980 RATIO DOLLARS 1981 SEASONALLY 1982 1983 BILLIONS ADJ UST ED 1984 1985 1986 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS LATEST DATA PLOTTED: APRIL, U .S. OF 1987 SCALE DOLLARS 1988 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E D . MAY ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. L OU IS R E T A I L SALES C 0 HPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANCE T ERMI NAL________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH________________________________________________________________________ MI L L I O N S OF dolU MONT H 10-86 11-86 12-86 1-67 2-6 7 3-87 4-07 5-67 6-67 7-8 7 8-87 9-07 10-87 11-07 12-07 1-80 2-88 3-80 H 4-88 1 20» 470 I 1-86 -3.0 12-86 29.0 71.5 1-87 -11.2 -15.0 -57.9 126 » 011 117 » 2 46 123»292 2-87 6.4 9.7 -12.3 82.8 3-87 5.9 8.2 -7.2 37.8 3.8 4-87 6.4 8.4 -3.3 27.6 6.6 123*680 124 » 6 0 9 9.4 124*844 5-87 5.8 7.4 -2.2 20.7 5. 1 5.8 2.3 6-87 7.2 8.7 0.8 20.0 8.0 9.5 9.5 17.3 7-87 7.2 8. 5 1.7 17.8 7.8 8.9 8.7 12.0 7.0 8-87 9.2 10.7 4.8 19.3 1 1. 1 12.7 13.5 17.5 17.6 126*511 127*230 129*981 29.3 127*815 9-87 6.4 7.4 1.9 13.8 6.4 6.8 6.3 7.3 4.2 2.8 -18.3 10-87 5.0 5. 8 0.8 11.0 4.3 4.4 3.6 3.8 0.7 -1.3 -13.8 -9.1 1 1-87 4.9 5.6 l.l 10.3 4. 3 4.4 3.9 1.4 0.0 -8.1 -2.6 12-87 5.5 6. 2 2.1 10.6 5. 2 5.4 5.2 3.4 2.6 -3.1 2.5 8.9 13.7 1-88 5.3 5.9 2.0 9.8 4.9 5.0 4.8 3. 1 2.4 -2.2 2.3 6.3 7.4 1.4 2-88 5.7 6.4 2.8 10.1 5.5 5.7 5.7 4.3 3.9 0.2 4.4 8.0 9.3 7.2 13.4 126*808 127*248 4.2 128*615 128*769 130*121 7. 3 3.9 10.9 6.7 6.9 7.2 6. 1 6.0 3.0 7.1 10.6 12.3 11.8 17.4 21.6 6.5 3.4 9.8 5.9 6.0 5.7 6.1 5.0 4.8 2. 1 5.4 6.0 8.7 7.5 9.6 7.8 -4.4 5-88 5.7 6.2 3.3 9.2 5.5 5.7 5.4 5.6 4.6 4.4 2.0 4.8 7.0 7.4 6.2 7.4 5.5 -1 .7 10-86 1 1 -8 6 1 2 -8 6 l-ST 2-87 3-87 4-Q7 5-87 6-6 7 7-d7 8-87 9-87 QO 6 .6 6 .0 A 3-88 4-88 11-87 12-8T" 1 - 8 # “T - 8 8 132*259 3-8T 131*761P l.l 131*8806 4-88 'IN ITIA L HOWTH t t P L I H I M A R ? ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- — E- ------- — — ------ — — — ----------------------------------------------------- ESTIMATEO PREPARED BY FEDERAL AESfcRVE BANK OF S T * L O U I S ______________________________________________________________ _____________________________________________________________J UNE 1 5 » 1968_________________________________ 9 H O i m L Y COMPENSA T I ON* B US I N E S S SECTOR C O WP O U N P E P A N N U A L R A T E S O f C H A N C E T E R M I N A L ________________________________________________________________________________I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R ______________________________________________________________________________ 1 9 7 7 - 1 0 0 QUARTER 3-87 4-87 3-86 2-87 4-86 I — 87 2-86 3-85 1-86 2-85 4-«5 2-8 3 3-83 4-83 2-8 4 3-84 4-84 1-85 1-84 3-83 1.5 4-83 3.5 161.4 163.6 5.6 165.8 1-84 5.5 5.5 2-84 4.6 4.1 2.7 166.9 168.7 3-84 4.5 4.2 3.5 4.4 4-84 4.4 4.1 3.6 4. 1 3.8 4. 1 4.5 4.3 4.0 4.4 4.4 5.0 2-85 4.2 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.6 4.7 5.1 5.2 3-85 4.4 4.7 4.6 4.5 4. 8 4.9 5.3 5.4 5.6 4-85 4. 5 4. 8 4.7 4.6 4.9 5.0 5.3 5.4 5.5 5. 3 1-85 170.3 172.4 174.6 177.0 179.3 180.7 1-86 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.8 4.7 4.2 3.2 2-86 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.3 4. 5 4.5 4.6 4.5 4.4 3.9 3.3 3.4 4.4 4.3 4.2 4. 3 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.1 3.7 3.2 3.2 3-86 182.2 183.6 3. 1 185.2 4.3 4.2 4.1 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.2 4.0 3.7 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.5 1-87 4. 1 4.0 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.3 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.4 1.3 2-87 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.6 3. 3 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.7 2.3 3.3 3-87 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.9 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.6 3.9 4-86 4. 1 185.8 187.3 189.1 4-87 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.3 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 2.9 3.5 3.6 3.2 1-88 4.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.6 3.4 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.0 3.4 3.5 3.3 3.4 5-63 4-63 1-64 2-64 3-64 4-64 1-85 2-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 I -87 2-8 7 3-87 4-87 2-83 3 - 8 15 190.6 192.2 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. LOUIS JUNE O U T P U T PE R HOUR OF _____________C O MP O U N O E O ALL PERSONS* ANNUAL R A T E S 6» 1 9 8 8 _______________ _____________________________________ BU S IN E S S SECTOR OF C HA NGE __________ T F R M I N A L ________________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R ______________________________________________________________________________ 1 9 7 7 « 1 0 0 QUARTER 4-87 2-85 1-87 3-87 2-83 3-83 3-85 4-85 3-86 4-86 2-8 7 4-83 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 1-86 2-86 1-84 3-83 -1.5 4-83 0.6 2.7 103.0 103.7 1-84 2.2 4. 1 5.5 2-84 2.1 3.4 3.7 1.9 105.1 3-84 1.6 2.4 2.3 0.8 -0.4 4-84 1.6 2.2 2.1 1.0 0.6 1-85 1.7 2.3 2.2 1.3 I. 1 2-85 1.8 2.3 2.2 1.6 1.5 2.2 2.5 2.7 3-85 2.0 2.5 2.5 2.0 2.0 2.6 2.9 3.2 3.8 4-85 1.7 2. 1 2.0 1.5 1.4 1.8 1.9 1.8 1.3 -1.1 105.6 105.5 1.5 105.9 106.5 2.3 107.2 108.2 107.9 1-86 2. 1 2.5 2.4 2.1 2. 1 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.4 6.1 2— 86 2.0 2.3 2.3 1.9 1.9 2.3 2.4 2.4 2.3 1.9 3.4 0.7 3-86 1.8 2.1 2.0 1.7 1.7 1.9 2.0 1.9 1.8 1.3 2.1 0.2 —0 . 4 4-86 1.7 1.9 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.5 1.0 1.6 0.1 -0.2 0.0 1-87 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.6 I .5 1.3 0.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.2 0.4 2-87 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.0 1.4 0.4 0.4 0.6 0.9 1.5 109.5 109.7 109.6 109.6 109.7 110.1 3-87 1.7 2.0 1.9 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.8 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.8 l.l 1.2 1.6 2.1 2.9 4.4 4-87 1.6 1.8 1.7 1.4 1.4 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.4 l . l 1.4 0.7 0.7 0.9 1.2 1.5 1.5 -1.4 1-88 1.7 1.8 1.8 I .6 1.5 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.5 1.3 1.6 1.0 l.l 1.3 1.6 1.9 2.1 0.9 3.3 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2 —8 4 5-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 i-èè 4-é6 1-87 3-87 4-87 in it ia l T-bl 111.3 110.9 111.8 q u a r te * BY FEDERAL JUNE 6 t 10 1988 K EffR V Tl AHK OF ST . LOUI S _____________ ____ 1 PRODUCTIVITY, RATIO COMPENSATI ON, AND LABOR COSTS SCALE RATIO 1977-100 SEASONALLY 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 S OU RC E : PERCENTAGES LATES T ARE A NNUA L DATA P L O T T E D . RATES 1ST OF CH ANGE FOR P E R I O D S U.S. 1987 1988 DEPARTMENT OF LA B OR ST. LOUIS IN D IC A T E D . Q UA R TE R P RE P A R E D I__ SCALE 1977-100 ADJUSTED BY F E D E RA L RE S ER VE BANK OF Ukï\ L A « * C O S t s . B US I N E S S SEC T O* CONPOVNOEO ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANCE T ERMINAL QUARTER 1 9 7 7 » 100 I N I T I A L QUARTER 2-83 3-8 3 4-8 3 3-83 3.1 4-83 2.8 2.6 1-84 2.0 1.4 0.3 I — 84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 4-86 3-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 156.7 157.7 157.8 2-84 1.6 1.1 0.4 0.5 3-84 2.3 2.0 1.9 2.7 4.9 4-84 2.3 2.1 2.0 2.5 3.6 2.3 1-85 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.6 3. 3 2.5 2.8 2-85 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.5 3.0 2.4 2.5 2.2 158.0 159.9 160.8 161.9 162.8 3-85 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.4 2. 8 2.3 2.3 2.1 2.0 4-85 2.7 2.6 2.6 3.0 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.5 4. 1 6.3 1-86 2.2 2. 1 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.1 2.1 1.9 1.8 1.7 -2.6 2-86 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.1 2.1 2.1 0.1 3-86 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.4 2.3 2.3 2.4 1.1 3.1 3.2 4-86 2.4 2.4 2.3 2.5 2. 7 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 1.7 3.2 3.4 3.6 1-87 2.3 2. 3 2.2 2.4 2.6 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 2.3 1.6 2.7 2.6 2.3 2-87 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.3 2.2 2.2 2.3 1.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 1.4 1.9 3-87 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.1 2. 2 2.0 2.0 1.9 1.9 1.9 1.3 1.9 1.7 I .4 0.6 0.5 4-87 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.3 2.4 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 2.2 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.0 1.7 1.9 1.9 4.8 1-88 2. 1 2. 1 2.0 2.2 2. 3 2.1 2.1 2.0 2.0 2.0 1.5 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.4 1.5 1.3 2.5 0.2 4-83 1-84 3-Ô4 4-84 4-85 1-86 2-66 3-86 4— 86 1-87 2-Ô? 5-Ô7 4-87 3-83 2-84 ¿-84 3^35” 166.1 165.0 2.9 166.2 167.5 169.0 1.0 169.4 170.2 * • 0 1 1 163.6 169.8 171.8 171.9 I HITTAL QUAftTK PAEPAftÊÔ 6V FÉDÉRAL AÉSÉIW B ÀN K OF S T. LOUIS J UNE 11 6» 1 9 8 8 _____________________________________________________ C R O Í S NA T I CHIAL P R O D U C T I N C U R R E N T ¿MI LLARS C OMPOUND E D A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N C E BILLIONS OF INITIAL TERMINAL QUARTER DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 2-83 3-83 QUARTER 3-83 4-83 1-04 2 —8 4 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 3*443.9 9.4 4-83 10.9 12.4 1 — 84 12.4 13.9 15.4 3*545.8 2-84 11.5 12.2 12.1 3*674.9 8.9 3*754.2 3-84 10.3 10.6 10.0 7.4 5.8 4-84 9.4 9.4 8.6 6.5 5. 3 4.7 3*807.9 1-85 9. 1 9.0 8.4 6.7 6.0 6.0 7.4 7.9 6.5 5.8 5.8 6.4 5.5 3*851.8 3*921.1 3*973.6 2-85 8.6 8.5 3-85 8.5 8.3 7.8 6.6 6. 1 6.1 6.6 6.3 7.1 4-85 8.2 8.1 7.6 6.5 6. 1 6.2 6.6 6.3 6.7 6.3 1-86 8.1 8.0 7.5 6.6 6.3 6.3 6.6 6.5 6.8 6.7 7.0 2-86 7.7 7.6 7.1 6.2 5.9 5.9 6.1 5.9 6.0 5.6 5.3 3.6 3-86 7.5 7.4 7.0 6.1 5.8 5.8 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.5 5.3 4.4 5.3 4-86 7.1 7.0 6.5 5.8 5.5 5.4 5.5 5.2 5.2 4.8 4.5 3.6 3.7 2.1 4*042.0 4*104.4 4*174.4 4*211.6 4*265.9 4*288.1 1-87 7.2 7.1 6.7 6.0 5.7 5.7 5.9 5.7 5.7 5.5 5.3 4.9 5.3 5.3 8.6 2-87 7.? 7.0 6.7 6.0 5.8 5.8 5.9 5.7 5.8 5.6 5.5 5.2 5.5 5.6 7.5 6.3 3-87 7.2 7.1 6.7 6.1 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.8 5.7 5.5 5.9 6.1 7.4 6.8 7.3 4-87 7.2 7. 1 6. 8 6.2 6.0 6.0 6.2 6.0 6. 1 6.0 6.0 5.8 6.2 6.4 7.4 7.1 7.4 7.6 1-88 7.1 7.0 6.7 6.1 6.0 6.0 6.1 6.0 6.0 5.9 5.9 5.7 6.0 6.1 7.0 6.6 6.7 6.3 5.1 2-83 3-83 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3 - ST 4-87 4*377.7 4*445.1 4*524.0 4*607.4 4*665.1 IKTTfAt OUAftTEft PRÉ PAÍ t ÉÍ ) J UNE 23* GROS S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T I N C OMPOUNDE D A N N U A L R A T E S BY f^ÉOÉR A L R É S i f t V É ftANK OF S T . L O U I S 1 9 8 8 ________________________________________ __________ 1982 DOLLARS OF C H A N C E --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- BIOLTOWS OF ANNUAL RAT ES QUARTER 2-83 3-8 3 4-83 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2— 8 6 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-8 7 3-87 4 —87 3*306.4 3-83 6.0 4-83 6.7 7.3 1-84 8.0 9.0 3*365.1 3*451.7 10.7 3*498.0 2-84 7.4 7.8 8.1 5.5 3-84 6.4 6.5 6.2 4.0 2.6 4-84 5.6 5.5 5.1 3.2 2. 1 1*7 3*520.6 3*535.2 3*568.7 1-85 5.3 5.2 4.8 3.4 2.7 2.8 3.8 2-85 4.9 4. 8 4.4 3.1 2.5 2.5 3.0 2 *1 3-85 4.8 4.7 4.3 3.3 2.8 2.9 3.3 3.1 3*587.1 4.1 3*623.0 3*650.9 4-85 4.7 4.5 4.2 3.3 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.6 3.1 1-86 4.7 4.6 4.3 3.5 3.2 3.3 3.7 3.6 4.2 4.2 5.4 2-86 4.4 4.2 3.9 3.2 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.0 3.3 3.0 3.0 0.6 3-86 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.0 2.7 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.6 2.5 1.0 4-86 4.0 3.8 3.5 2.9 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.7 2.4 2.2 1.2 1.5 1.5 1-87 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.7 2.6 2.0 2.4 2.9 2-87 3.9 3.7 3.5 3.0 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.7 3*698.8 3*704.7 3*716.0 1.4 2.6 2.1 2.4 2.8 3*731.5 3*772.2 4.4 3.4 2.5 3*795.3 3*835.9 3-87 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.1 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.9 3*0 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.6 3.2 3.7 3.4 4.3 4-87 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.0 3.0 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.1 3.1 2.8 3.1 3.5 4.0 3.9 4.6 4.8 1-88 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.2 3.1 3*1 3.2 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.2 2.9 3.2 3.5 3.9 3.8 4.2 4 .2 3.6 2-85 3 -8 3 4-83 1 -8 4 2 -8 4 3 -84 4-6 4 1-85 2-05 3 -8 5 2 -8 ¿ i - §6 4 -8 6 1 -é T 3-87 4-87 2 -« 7 3*880.6 3*915.4 T v r m n r o n r m r Hlf PARWIY- FEKrRAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUTT JUWf 12 23» I M » ___________________________________________________ GROSS N A T I O N A L PRODUCT R A T I O S CA L E T R I L L I O N S OF QUARTERLY T OT AL S AT ANNUAL R A T E S DOLLARS S E AS O NA L L Y AD J US T ED TRILLIONS R A T I O SCALE OF D O L L A R S 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 2. 6 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIO DS LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 1986 U .S . 1987 1988 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E D . 1ST QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . 13 L O U IS GENERAL RAT I 0 PRICE INDEX* SCALE RAT I 0 S C A L E 1982-100 1982-100 1980 1981 1982 *A S USED IN NATIONAL 1983 1984 1985 INCOME ACCOUNTS SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS LATEST DATA PLOTTED: 1986 U .S. 1987 1988 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E D . 1ST OUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. I M P L I C I T P R I C E DE F L AT OR FOR CROSS N A T I O N A L CONPOUNOEO ANNUAL RAT ES OF CHANCE T E R MI N AL OUARTER IN ITIAL 2-8 3 3-8 3 4-83 3-83 3.5 4-83 4. 1 4.7 1—84 4.2 4.5 4 2 2-84 3.9 4.0 3 6 1-84 2-84 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 LO UI S PRODUCT 1902 » OUARTER 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-06 4-86 1-87 2-07 3-07 104.2 105.4 106.5 107.3 3.0 100.2 3-84 3.8 3.8 3 6 3.2 3.4 *— 84 3.6 3.7 3 4 3.1 3.2 3.0 1-85 3.6 3.6 3 4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 2-85 3.6 3.6 3 4 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.3 109.0 109.9 110.8 111.6 3-85 3.5 3.5 3 3 3.2 3. 2 3.1 3.2 3.1 2.9 4-85 3.4 3.4 3 3 3.1 3. 1 3.1 3. 1 3.0 2.9 2.9 1-86 3.3 3.3 3 I 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.5 2.3 2-86 3.2 3. 2 3 I 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.3 2.9 3-86 3.3 3.3 3 1 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 3.2 3.6 4-86 3.1 3. 1 2 9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.4 2.2 2.4 2.1 112.4 112.9 1.8 113.7 114.7 114.9 0.7 116.1 1-87 3.2 3. 1 3 0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.8 2.8 2.5 4.2 2-87 3.2 3.2 3 I 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.0 2.8 3.9 3.5 3-87 3.2 3. I 3 0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.5 3.1 2.0 4-87 3. 1 3. 1 3 0 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.3 3.0 2.8 2.7 1- 88 3.0 3.0 2 9 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.7 2.5 2.9 2.6 2.3 2.0 1.4 *-83 1-84 2-8* 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-8? 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-07 4-87 2-83 100 4-07 3-8 3 117.1 117.9 118.7 119.1 TOCTAfteO 6V FEK ftAt ftCSfftVC BANK OF 5TV L O U IT JUNE 14 23» 1 9 6 8 ___________________________________________________ PERSONAL CONSUMPT I ON EXPENDI T URE S I N CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANCE ---------------------------------------------------------- BILLIONS 0* T E R M I N A L ________________________________________________________ ___________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R _________________________________________________________________________________________ D O L L A R S QUARTER ANNUAL RA T ES 2-83 3-83 *-07 *-83 l - 8* 2-8* 3-07 2-86 3-86 *-86 1-87 2-87 3-8* 1-86 *-0* 1-65 2-65 3-6 5 *-85 3-83 9.3 2» 262.8 2» 3 1 5 . 8 4-83 9.5 9.7 1-8% 9.0 8.9 8.1 2-8* 9.2 9.2 8.9 2 » 3 6 1 •I 9 8 2 »* 1 7 .0 2 » *50.3 3-8* 8.5 8.3 7.8 7 7 5.6 *-8* 8.3 8. 1 7.7 7 5 6.* 7.2 1-85 8.* 8.3 8.0 8 0 7.* 8.3 9.* 8 7.7 8.3 8.9 8.* 2-85 8.* 8. 3 8. 1 I 2**93.* 2» 5*9.9 2*602.0 2*665.* 3-85 8.6 8. 5 8.* 8 * 8. 1 8.8 9.3 9.3 10.1 *-85 8.3 8.2 8.0 8 0 7. 7 8.1 8.3 7.9 7.7 1-86 8.0 7.9 7.7 7 7 7.* 7.7 7.6 7.* 7.0 5.5 5.7 2-86 7.7 7.6 7.* 7 3 7.0 7.2 7.2 6.7 6 .3 5. 1 *.9 2*700.1 5.3 2*737.9 2*765.8 *. 1 2*837.1 3-86 7.9 7. 8 7.7 7 6 7.* 7.6 7.7 7.* 7.2 6.* 6.8 7.* 10.7 *-86 7.6 7.5 7.3 7 2 6.9 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.5 5.8 5.9 5.9 6.8 3.1 2*858.6 2*893.8 7.3 7.1 7 0 6. 8 6.9 6.8 6.5 6. 3 5.6 5.7 5.7 6.2 *.0 5.0 7.* 7.3 7. 1 7 0 6. 8 6.9 6.9 6.6 6.* 5.8 5.9 6.0 6.* 5.0 6.0 7.1 3-87 7.5 7.* 7.3 7 2 7.0 7.1 7.1 6.9 6.7 6.3 6.* 6.6 7.0 6.1 7.2 8.3 9.5 *-87 7.? 7.0 6.9 6 8 6.6 6.7 6.6 6.* 6.2 5.7 5.8 5.6 6. 1 5.2 5.7 6.0 5.* 1.5 1-88 7.1 7.0 6. 8 6 8 6. 6 6.6 6.6 6.* 6.2 5.8 5.8 5.9 6.1 5.* 5.8 6.0 5.7 3.8 2-83 3-83 l - i 04 2-8* 3-8* *-8* t-8* 5-85 *-85 1-86 2-86 4-8¿ 1-8? *-83 1 7.* CD 1-87 2-87 2*9*3.7 3*011.3 3*022.6 6.2 3*068.3 *-87 2-8 7 'INITIAL ÔUAftTfft ---------WÉ^AftÉÒ ô^TiTôfirAr'ftÉSÉftVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS J UNE 2 3* 1988_______________________________________________ PERSONAL CO N S U MP T I O N E X P E N D I T UR E S I N 1 98 2 OOLLARS _____________CO MPO U N D E D A NNUAL R A T E S Of CH A NG E ______________________________________________________________________________ B I L L I O N S 0^ T E R M I N A L _______________________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R ______________________________________________________________________________ D O L L A R S ANNUAL R A T ES QUARTER *-87 2-87 3-87 1-85 *-85 3-86 *-8 6 1-87 2-83 3-8 3 *-83 1-8* 2-8* 3-8* *-8* 3-85 1-86 2-86 2-85 5.3 5.* 5.5 CO 1 2*163.0 3-83 *-83 *.8 *.6 2*191.9 2*212.1 3.7 2*2*6.7 2-8* 5.2 5.2 5. 1 6.* 3-8* *.6 *.* *.0 *.l 1.9 *-8* *.5 *. 3 *.1 *.2 3. 1 2*257.3 2*201.1 *.3 1-85 *.7 *.6 *.* *.6 *.0 5.1 5.9 2 -8 5 *.6 *. 5 *.* *.5 *.0 *.7 5 .0 *.0 3-85 *.9 *.8 *.7 *.9 *.6 5 .3 5 .6 5 .* 6 .9 . 1 2* 3 1 * 2 *3 3 7 .0 2 *3 7 6 .1 *-6 5 *.5 * .* *.3 *.3 *.0 *.* *.5 *.0 *.0 1.2 1-86 *.5 *.* *.3 *.* *. 1 *.5 *.5 *.1 *.2 2.6 *.5 2-86 *.5 *.* *.3 *.3 *.l *.* *.* *.1 *.2 3.3 *.3 4.1 3-86 *.7 *.6 *.6 *.6 *.* *.8 *.8 *.7 *.6 *.3 5.3 5.7 *-86 *.* *.3 *.2 *.3 *.0 *.3 4.3 *.0 *.1 3.5 *.1 3.9 3.8 0.5 1-87 *.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.6 3.7 3.* 3.* 2.6 3.1 2.7 2.3 -0.1 -0.7 2-87 3.9 3.8 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.3 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.6 2.2 0.5 0.6 1.9 2*383.2 **0 9 .7 2 2**3*.3 7.3 2**77.5 2**80.5 2**75.9 2**87.5 3-87 *.0 3.9 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.7 3.7 3.5 3.* 3.0 3.3 3.0 2.6 1.7 2.2 3.7 5.* *-67 3.6 3.5 3.* 3.* 3.2 3.3 3.2 2.9 2.6 2.4 2.5 2.2 1.9 0.9 1.0 1.5 1.* -2.5 1-88 3.6 3.5 3.* 3.* 3.2 3.3 3.2 3.0 2.9 2.5 2.7 2.* 2.2 1 .* 1.5 2.1 2.2 0.6 3.8 2-83 3-8 3 X-83 1-8* 2-8* 3-84 4-84 1-65 2-65 5-85 4-65 1-86 2-86 3-86 4 -86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 2*520.7 2*50*.6 2*527.9 INITIAI: QUARTÉ* "Pftr WJTEP BY FEffC m L RESERVE BAWCOF 51. L O U I S JUNE 15 23» 1 9 6 8 ________________________________________ CROSS P RI V A T E OOMESTI C I NV EST MENT I N CURRENT C OMPOUNDED A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N G E INITIAL TERMINAL QUARTER 2-83 3-83 3-83 %— 8 3 1-8% 2-8% 2-85 4-85 3-85 1-86 2-86 %-86 3-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 % — 37 71.0 2-8% o 38.7 31.2 0.7 30. 3 29.0 21.3 2.2 3. 7 OD 5%.9 62.8 pi 579.8 %5 • I 53.3 6 63.0 66% . 2 670.3 8% 23.7 21.3 1 %. 1 -0.2 -0. 7 -5.0 1-85 17.5 1%. 7 8.0 -3.7 — 5. 1 -9.2 2-85 1 6. 1 13.5 7. 7 -1.8 -2.% 3-85 12.6 10.0 %. 7 -3.5 -% . 85 12.8 10.5 5.9 - I .1 1-86 13.6 11.6 7.6 1.5 %— 1-85 519.7 1-8% %— %— 8% B I L L I O N S Of DOLLARS A W« O A L R A T E S QUARTER 35.9 4-83 3 — 8% 3-8% DOLLAR S 661 . 8 638.6 -13.3 6% 8 •% -%.0 6.3 —6 . 2 -6.6 -3.1 -11.7 -1 .3 -2.3 -1 .7 2.6 0.7 I 1.6 1.3 2.6 7.0 7. 3 18.2 21.6 0.8 1.8 5.1 %• 8 10.9 9.0 -2.3 3 -% • 3 628.6 %. 9 650.8 683.% 679.% 2-86 12.2 10. 2 6.5 l.l 1.1 3-86 10. 2 8.3 % •9 -0.1 -0.2 -0.7 -0.1 2.3 1.5 5. 1 2.1 -6.5 %— 86 9.5 7.6 %.% -0.2 -0. 2 -0.7 -0.1 I .9 1.2 % .o I . -% . 5 -5.6 -0.% 1-87 10.5 8.9 6.0 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.5 % .7 %. 5 7.% 6.0 2.% %.0 12.2 26.3 2-87 9.9 8.% 5.6 1.8 1.9 1.7 2.% %.3 %. 1 6.6 5.2 2.2 3.% 8.5 13.3 1.6 3-87 9.5 8.0 5.% 1.9 2.0 1.8 2.5 % .2 3.9 6.1 % •9 2.3 3. 3 7.1 9.6 2.2 2.8 % — 87 10.7 9.% 7.0 3.7 3.9 3.9 %. 7 6.5 6.6 8.8 8.1 6.3 7.8 1 1.9 15. 1 11.6 17.1 33.% %. 5 6.1 6. 1 8.0 7.3 5.6 6.8 10.0 12.2 9.0 11.6 16.2 1.3 4-84 1-85 2-8 5 3-65 4-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 % — 87 1-88 10.2 8.9 1-84 ¿-84 ' 1 4-85 3.8 3.8 00 3.6 PI } - 8 5“ 6.7 % -10.5 660.8 660.2 699.9 702.6 707.% 760.2 TOFPÀf t Eô BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK O F JUNE GROS S P R I V A T E D O M E S T I C I N V E S T M E N T I N 1 9 8 2 ______________C OMPOUND E D A N N U A L R A T E S Of C H A N G E T E R M I NAL QUARTER INITIAL 2-83 3-83 3-83 35.0 % — 83 %0. 5 %6 • 3 1-8% %8 . 6 55.9 %— 8 3 1-8% 2-8% 3-8% 4-84 1-85 2-85 2 3* 4-85 ST. LOUIS 1988 DOLLARS b I L l i O n S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL R A T E S QUARTER 3-85 762.7 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 524.8 577.2 66.0 655.2 2-8% 35.2 35.3 30.1 2.0 3-8% 28.2 26.6 20.6 2.8 3.6 % - 8% 21.9 19.5 13.6 0.1 -0.8 -5.0 1-85 16.1 13.2 7.5 -3.5 -5.3 -9.% -13.6 2-85 15.2 12.6 7.8 -1.2 -1.9 -3.7 -3.0 8.9 3-85 11.6 9.0 %• 5 -3.3 -%. 3 -6.2 -6.6 - 2 .8 -13.2 %— 85 11.8 9.5 5.6 - I .0 -1.5 -2.5 -1.9 2.4 -0.7 13.5 1-86 12.6 10.6 7.2 1.5 1.4 1.0 2.3 6.7 6.0 17.1 20.8 2-86 I 1.0 9.0 5.9 0.7 0.5 0.1 1.0 4.2 3.1 9.2 7.1 -5.1 658.4 664.2 655.7 632.1 645.7 623.2 643.3 674.4 665.6 3-86 9.0 7. 1 %.l -0 .6 -0.9 -1.5 -0.9 I .4 -0 . 1 3.5 0.4 -8.5 -11.8 %— 86 7.7 5.8 3.0 -1 .% -1.7 -2.3 -1.9 -0.1 -1.5 1.0 -1.9 -8.5 -10. 1 1-87 9.0 7. 3 % •8 0.8 0.5 1.1 3.1 2.3 5.1 3.5 -0.4 2-87 8.5 6.9 %•5 0.9 0. 8 0.5 l.l 2.9 2.1 4.6 3.1 -0.1 1.2 3-87 8.2 6.8 %•5 l.l 1. 1 0.9 1.4 3.1 2.5 4.6 3.4 0.7 2.0 %— 87 9.2 7.8 5.8 2.7 2.7 2.6 3.3 5.0 4.6 6.8 6.0 4.1 5.7 1-88 9.3 8.0 6. 1 3.2 3. 2 3.2 3.9 5.5 5.2 7.2 6.5 4.9 6.4 2-83 3-83 %— 8 3 1-8% 2-8% 3-84 4-84 1-85 2-85 3-85 4-85 1-86 2-86 0. 7 1.2 645.0 631 . 0 -8.4 28.5 671.8 6.0 14.0 1.1 673.7 5.7 10.9 3.0 5.0 9.6 14.6 10.3 15.2 26.4 9.8 13.8 10.4 13.7 18.3 10.8 1-87 2-87 1-87 4-87 8.5 3 - 8 6 " '4- 0-6“ “ PREPARED J UN E 23* 16 BY F E D E R A L 1988 681 . 9 723.1 741.8 R E S E R V E BANK OF " S T * L O U I S __________________________ ________ G I 1 V E RN NE NT P U R C H A S E S OF C OMP OU N D E D TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL 2-83 3-83 *-83 1 -6 * 2-8* 3-8* *-8* 1-85 2-65 1 DOLLARS B I L L IONS Of DOLLARS An n u a l r a t e s QUARTE« *-0 5 3-8 5 1-86 2-66 3-66 *-8 6 1-87 2 -8 7 *-87 3-87 6 8 0 .7 3-83 3.3 *-83 0.3 — 2.7 1-8* *.2 *.7 1 2 .6 2-8% 9.0 10.9 l 8.* 2* .6 • OD •r iGOODS <I N O S E R V I C E S I N C U R R E N T A NNUA L R A T E S Of C H A N C E 676.1 69 6 .5 7 35.8 7 *6 .6 8.* 9. 7 l*.l 1* . 9 6.0 *-8* 8.6 9. 7 13.1 13.2 8.0 9.9 1-85 8.9 9.9 12.6 12.6 8. 8 10.3 76*.5 78*.1 10.7 2-85 8.9 9.7 11.9 11.8 8.8 9.7 9.6 8.6 3-85 9. 8 10.6 12.7 12.7 10.* 1 1.5 12.1 12.8 800.5 17. 1 832.8 8 5 7 .0 *-85 10.0 12.6 12.6 10.7 1 1.7 12.1 12.6 I* .6 12. 1 1-86 8.6 9. 1 10.5 10.3 8. * 0.8 8.5 8.0 7.8 3.* -*.6 2-86 8.7 9.2 10.5 10.2 8.6 8.9 8.8 S.* 8.3 5.5 2.* 9.9 3-86 8.* 8.9 10.0 9.7 8. 2 8.5 8.3 7.9 7.7 5.5 3.* 7.6 5.3 *-86 8.1 8.5 9.* 9.2 7. 7 7.9 7.7 7.3 7.0 5. I 3.* 6.3 *.5 3.6 1-87 7.8 8. ? 9.1 8.8 7.* 7.6 7.3 6.9 6. 7 5.0 3.6 5.8 *.5 *.1 *.5 8.8 7.6 7.8 7.6 7.2 7.0 5.7 *.6 6.6 5.0 5.9 7. 1 10.8 8 *6 .9 8 67.2 878 .5 886.3 896.2 917.1 9.7 8.0 8.3 3-87 7.8 8. 1 8.8 8.6 7.* 7.6 7.3 7.0 6.0 5.6 *.7 6.* 5.7 5.7 6.5 7.5 5.3 *-87 7.9 8. 1 8.8 8.6 7. 5 7.7 7.5 7.2 7.C 6.0 5.2 6.7 6.2 6.* 7. I 7.9 7.0 8.8 1-88 7. 3 7.6 8.2 7.9 6. 9 7.0 6.7 6.* 6.2 5.2 *.* 5.6 5.3 5.5 *. 1 3.5 -1.6 3-83 *-83 1-8* 3-8* *-8* 1-05 2-85 3-85 *-85 1-86 *-06 1-87 2-87 3-67 *-87 2-83 2-8* o o 2-87 9. 1 2-86 3-86 929.0 9*8.8 9*5.1 ÏWITIÀL ôUAATÉft WEAAAE0 BY FEDERAL ftE SEAVE- BANK OF S T. LOUIS G O V E R N ME N T P U R C H A S E S Of G0 Q0 S AND S E R V I C E S I N C O MP O U N D E D ANNUAL R A T E S OF C HANGE INITIAL T E R M I NAL QUARTER 2-83 3-8 3 *-83 1-8* 1.7 *-83 -2.7 -6.8 1-8* 0.* -0.2 6.9 2-8* *.5 5.5 12.2 17.7 *.7 8.9 9.9 *.l 3-8* *-8* 1-85 1982 DOLLARS B I L L I O N S Of OOLLARS ANNUAL R A T E S QUARTER 3-85 *-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 *-86 1-87 2-87 *-87 3-87 653.0 680.2 68*.5 2.6 *.3 *.8 7.9 8.3 3. 9 5.2 1-65 *.5 5.0 7.6 7.7 *.6 5.6 6.0 5.0 7.1 7.2 *.7 5.* 5.5 5.0 *.6 1 9 6 8 ____________________________________________________ 6*2.2 *-8* 2-85 2-85 23» 653.6 3-83 3-8* 2-8* JUNE 693.2 703.* 712.1 3-85 5.8 6. 3 8.3 8.6 6. 8 7.9 8.8 10.3 15.7 *-85 6.0 6.5 8.3 8.5 7. 1 8.0 8.7 9.6 12.0 1-86 *.7 5.0 6.3 6.3 *.7 5.1 5.1 *.9 2-86 *.9 5.2 6.5 6.* 5. 1 5.5 5.5 5.* 3-86 *.8 5.0 6.2 6.1 *.9 5.2 5.2 5.0 *-86 5.0 5.2 6.3 6.3 5. 2 5.5 5.5 5.* 5.5 738.6 753.7 8 •* -0. 3 -8.3 5.5 2.* -0.6 7.8 5.0 2.5 0.6 5.* 3.0 3.6 2.* 6.2 5.* 7.9 737.6 751.6 757.2 771.8 *.2 * .* 5.3 5.2 *. 1 *.3 *.1 3.9 3.0 1.9 0.6 3.0 1.* 0.6 -6.2 *.2 *.3 5.2 5.1 *. 1 *.2 *.1 3.9 3.0 2.2 l.l 3.1 2.0 1 .7 -1.3 3-87 *. 1 *.2 5.0 *.9 *.0 *.l *.0 3.8 3.6 2.2 I.* 3.1 2.1 I .9 3.3 3.3 2.2 5.2 5.9 -0 .6 0.8 -0 . 1 -1.5 « œ • * r* ce I 2-87 *.* *.5 5.3 5.2 *. 3 *.5 *.* *.3 *.2 3.0 2.3 1-88 3.5 3.6 *.2 %.l 3. 2 3.3 3.1 2.9 2.7 1.5 0.7 1.9 l.l 0.8 2-83 3-63 4-63 Ï-Ô* 3 -8 4 4 -8 4 1-8 5 2-85 *-85 1-86 2-86 3 -8 6 2-84 w « 7 59.6 766.7 3.8 771 . 7 2.6 788.9 9.2 - I I . 1 3 *-87 3.9 o o 1-87 2-87 UJ T *. 6 766.0 * -8 7 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. LOUIS JUNE 17 23, 1 9 8 8 ______________________________________ D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C OME I N C OMPOUND E D ANNUAL R A T E S CURRENT DOLLARS O f C HA NG E BILLIONS INITIAL TERMINAL QUARTER 2-8 3 3-83 *-83 3-8 3 *-83 1-8* 2-8* 3-8* *-8* 1-85 2-85 3-85 *-85 1-86 3-86 *-86 1-87 2-8 7 3-87 *-87 2,**3.2 I* .6 2,527.9 2,611.8 1- 8 V 12.2 I*. 3 2 — 8* 10.3 I I .0 1*.0 2,6*2.8 9.3 *.8 3-8* 9. 8 10. 1 8.7 6.2 7. 5 *-8* 9. 1 9. 2 7.9 6.0 6.6 5.7 2,6 91 .1 2,728.6 8.5 8.5 7. 3 5.8 6. 1 5.* 5.0 9.0 9.2 8. 3 7.2 7. 8 7.9 9.0 1 3. 1 00 1 2,762.2 1-85 2-85 8.0 8.0 7.0 5.9 6. 1 5.8 5.8 6.2 *-85 8.0 8.0 7.2 6.3 6. 5 6.* 6.5 7.0 *. 1 8.6 1-86 8. 1 8.1 7.* 6.6 6. 8 6.7 6.9 7.* 5.5 8.5 8.* 2-86 8.1 8.0 7.* 6.7 6.9 6.9 7.1 7.5 6. 1 8.3 8.1 7.8 7.6 7.5 6.9 6.3 6.3 6.6 5.3 6.7 6.1 *.9 *-86 7.3 7.2 1-87 7.* 7.3 2-87 6.9 6.8 6.3 3-86 2-86 8.2 11.* ÖF DOLLARS ANNUAL R A T E S QUARTER 2,8*8.* -0.2 2,8*7.2 2,906.6 2,966.0 3,022.* 3,038.2 2.1 6.2 6.* 6.6 5.9 6. 1 5.9 5.9 6.1 *.9 6.0 5.3 *.3 2.6 3.1 6.8 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.* 5.5 6.* 6.0 5.* *.6 5.9 8.7 5.7 5. 8 5.7 5.7 5.7 *.0 5.6 5.1 *.* 3.6 * .l *.6 0.6 3,061.6 3,125.9 3,130.6 3-87 7.0 6.9 6.* 5.9 6.0 5.9 5.9 6.0 5.2 5.9 5.6 5.1 *.6 5.2 5.9 *.5 8.5 *-87 7.2 7. 1 6.7 6.2 6. 3 6.2 6.3 6.* 5.7 6.* 6.1 5.8 5.5 6.2 7.0 6.* 9.* 10.* 1-88 7.1 7.1 6.6 6.2 6.3 6.2 6.2 6.* 5.8 6.* 6.1 5.8 5.6 6.1 6.8 6.3 8.3 8.1 5.9 2-83 3-83 *-83 1-8* ¿-Ô* 3-8* *-8* 1-85 2-85 3-85 *-85 1-86 2-86 3-86 *-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 *-87 3,195.3 3,275.0 3,322.6 "M É 'M R W BY FET5EAAL RESERVE BANK OF 3 T . LOUIS JUNE 23, 1 9 8 8 ____________________________________________________ 01 SPOSA BLE P E R S O N A L I N C O N E I N 1 99 2 0 O L L A R S ________ C OMPOUN D E D ANNUA L R A T E S OF C HA NGE BILLIONS Of INITIAL QUARTER DOLLARS QUARTER " 3-8 3 *-83 1-8* 2-8* 3-8* *-8* 1-85 2-85 3-85 00 • 2-83 1-86 2-86 3-86 *-86 3-83 *.3 *-83 7.2 10.2 1-8* 7.9 9.8 9.* 2-8* 6.3 7.0 5.* 1.6 3-8* 5.8 6. 2 *.8 2.7 3. 7 *-8* 5.3 5.5 *.3 2.7 3. 3 1-85 *.8 *.8 3.8 2.* 2. 7 2-85 5.2 5.3 *.6 3.6 *. 1 5.0 8.5 3-85 *.3 *.3 3.* 2.5 2.6 2.2 2.5 -3.1 *-85 *. 3 *.3 3.5 2.7 2.9 2.8 3.1 0.6 1-86 *.5 *.6 3.9 3.3 3.5 3.5 3.6 *.1 2.7 5.8 7.2 2-86 *.8 *.8 *.3 3.8 *. 1 *.1 *.3 *.9 *.0 6.5 7.5 7.8 3-86 *.3 *.3 3.8 3.3 3.5 3.* 3.5 3.9 3.0 *.5 *.6 3.3 -1.0 *-86 *. 1 *.0 3.6 3.0 3. 2 3.1 3.2 3.* 2.5 3.7 3.6 2.* -0.3 0.5 1-87 *.0 *.0 3.5 3.0 3. 1 3.1 3.1 3.3 2.6 3 ♦6 3.* 2.5 0.7 I .6 2.7 2-87 3.* 3.* 2.9 2.* 2. 5 2.* 2.3 2.* 1.7 2.* 2.1 1.1 -0.6 -0.* -0 .8 3-87 3.5 3.* 3.0 2.6 2. 7 2.5 2.6 2.0 2.7 2.* 1.6 0.* 0.8 *-87 3.6 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.8 2.9 2.* 3.0 2.8 2.2 1.3 I .8 1-88 3.6 3.6 3.2 2.8 2.9 2.9 3.0 2.5 3. 1 2.9 2.* 1.6 2-83 3-83 *-83 1-8* 2-8* *-8* 1-85 2-85 *-85 1-86 2-86 1-87 2-8 7 3-87 A TO A L RATES *-87 2,335.* 2,392.7 2,**6.9 2,*56.6 2,*79.2 2.8 2,*96.3 1.7 *.3 3-8* 2,506.8 2,558.* 2,538.2 *.* 3-85 2,565.5 2,610.5 2,660.2 2,653.2 2,656.7 2,67*.6 -*.3 2,6*5.5 0.9 0.0 *.5 2,67*.7 2. 1 2.0 5.2 6.0 2.1 2.* 2.3 *.7 *.7 3.5 3-86 *-86 i-öt 5-Ô? *-07 ~ T -ts 7 2,713.8 2,737.* AftEPAAED BY FEDEAAL REPAVE BANK OF S IT LOUIS JUNE 18 23, 1 9 8 8 ____________________________________________________ f CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES« COM POUND E D ANNUA L R A T E S OF C HA NG E --------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------gjLLj^S-Qir T E R M I N A L ______________________________ ________________________________ ________________ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R ___________________ _______________________________________________________ D O L L A R S annual RAlTS QUARTER *-87 3-0 7 3-8* 2-8 7 2-8 3 3-83 *-83 1-8* 2-8* 1-86 2-86 3-86 1-87 3-85 *-85 *-86 *-8* 1-85 2-85 1*1 . 0 3-83 53.9 *-83 28.3 7.0 152.5 1-8* 28.2 17.0 27.9 2-8* 19.* 9.8 11.2 3-8* 9.2 0. 3 -1.9 — 1* . 0 - 2 3 . 5 1 *1 . * - 1 •0 -2.9 -11.5 -15.2 -6.1 139.2 -19.0 -23.6 -23.6 -37.8 -15.3 -19.6 3.9 -11.5 -8.3 -9.0 10.1 151.2 -3.* *-8* 6.5 1-85 -1.* -8.* -11.2 2-85 - 0. -6.7 -8.8 - I * . 8 -17.5 l.l -* . 1 -5.6 -10.2 3-85 7 123.6 12*.8 129.7 16.7 -2.1 -3.2 -7.0 -7.6 -*.0 -3.* I I .8 16.0 15.3 -1.7 -6.0 -7.3 -11 .0 -12.0 -9.9 -10.7 -2.2 -*.1 -13.1 -3*.5 2-86 - l . l -5.0 -6.2 -9.3 -10. 1 -8.0 -8.3 -0.8 -2.C -7.5 -17.2 1 IT CD 2.* 1-86 13*.* 120.9 122.3 *.7 3-86 0.9 -2.6 -3.5 -6.1 -6.* -*.0 -3.7 3.5 3.* 0.* -* .l 16.0 *-86 1.6 -1.6 -2.2 -*.6 -*. 7 -2.* -1.9 *.7 *.9 2.6 —0 . 3 I* .7 1-87 0.5 -2.5 -3.2 -5.* -5.6 -3.6 -3.3 2.2 1.9 -0.* -3.2 6.7 7.* 130.2 28.5 o o 13*.0 12.2 -1.8 129.0 -I* . 1 2-87 1.5 -I . 3 -1.8 -3.8 -3. 8 -1.8 -I.* 3.8 3.8 2.1 0.0 8.9 10.0 * 0. 7 I 8.2 3-87 2.7 0.2 -0. 3 -2.0 -1.9 0.1 0.7 5.7 5.9 *.6 3.2 11.3 12.6 9.0 7.9 21.0 23.9 *-87 3. 2 0.8 0.* -1.2 - l . l 0.9 1.5 6.1 6.* 5.3 * I 11.2 12.3 9.* 8.7 17.5 17.2 10.8 1-88 2.8 0.5 0. 1 -1 -1 .3 0.6 l.l 5.3 5.* *.3 3.2 9.2 9.9 7 .0 6.0 11.8 9.7 3.3 -3 .8 2-64 5-64 1 -6 5 2-65 *-85 1-86 2-66 3-06 *-86 1-67 2-67 3-67 *-87 4-65 2-63 * 1*3.* NATIONAL I N C OME .* 1-6 4 4-Ö4 3-8 5 • .* 13*.5 1 *1 . 9 1*5.6 I**.2 BASIS PREPARED JUNE 2 3» BY F E T T E * A l R E S E R V E BANK O F ST . L O U I S 1 9 8 8 ____________________________________________________ HISTORICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA Estimates for the series in the regular quarterly presentation of NIPA tables for 1984-87:11 are published in the July 1987 Survey of Current Business and 1983 in the July 1986 Survey of Current Business«, Estimates for NIPA series for 1929-82 are published in The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-82: Statistical Tabl es. For further information and prices, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230* 19 I N V E N T O R I E S COMPARED WI T H MONTHLY SALES MANUFACTURING AND TRADE SEASONALLY ADJ USTED 72 .68 68 .6 4 64 .6 0 60 . 56 56 .5 2 52 . 48 48 . 44 44 40 36 .3 6 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982, I NVENTORY DATA REFLECT CHANGES 1 1 SOURCE: «BEGINNING IN 1985 1986 1987 1988 U . S . D E P A R T M E N T OF COMMERCE I N E S T I M A T I O N PROCEDURES. SHADED AREAS REPR E S E NT P E R I O D S OF B U S I N E S S R E C E S S I O N S . LATEST DATA P L O T T E D : APRIL PRELI MI NARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL 20 RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
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