Full text of National Economic Trends : June 1980
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nnnonnL P R E P A R E D Month Ending: B Y E conom ic F E D E R A L May 31, 1980 R E S E R V E B A N K trchds O F ST. L O U I S Released: June 30, 1980 The U.S. economy is in the early stages of a potentially serious recession. A comparison of the major economic indicators in the current and previous recessions suggests that the economy is following a pattern similar to that experienced in late 1974 and early 1975. An important parallel with this earlier period is the superimposition of tightening monetary actions on an economy that is in the process of adjusting to sharply higher energy prices. Industrial production has dropped at a 13.3 percent annual rate since January, following 13 months of little change. This movement is similar to that which occurred in the last recession, when production changed little from November 1973 to September 1974 and then fell at a 33.2 percent rate from September 1974 to January 1975. Furthermore, in both recessions, the automobile and housing industries showed the greatest decline. The parallel to 1974 also applies to employment. Total civilian employment has declined at a 2.5 percent rate since January, following a 1.9 percent rate of growth over the prior 13 months. Similarly, from October 1974 to January 1975, employment dropped at a 6.2 percent rate, compared to a 0.9 percent expansion over the prior year. From October 1974 to January 1975, the unemployment rate rose from 5.9 percent to 8.0 percent. By May of this year, the unemployment rate was 7.8 percent, compared to 6.2 percent in January. Prices typically respond to weakening economic activity. For example, beginning in November 1974, the rate of increase in both consumer and producer prices slowed. Consumer prices, after rising at a 17.5 percent rate from November 1979 to March 1980, have slowed to an 11.5 percent rate over the last two months. This latter rate of increase, however, is only slightly less than the rate that prevailed in the year ending November 1979. A break in the trend of producer prices for finished goods, excluding foods, is less noticeable. Such prices rose at a rapid 16.9 percent rate from December 1978 to April 1980, and only in the month of May was there a sign of deceleration. TOTAL C IV ILIA N EMPLOYMENT H rrEF ü F T H W C T TERM INAL MONTH TO-TS 1 1 - 7 8 1 0 -7 8 1 1 -7 8 I HUUSANOS Of PERSONS 1 2 -7 8 1 2 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 - 7 9 " 4-7 9 — 5=79— 5=79— 7-7 T 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 5 -7 9 6 -7 9 7 -7 9 ~B- 7 9 9 - 79 1 0 - T9 1 1 - 79 12-79— 1-80 8 -7 9 9 -7 9 1 0 -7 9 1 1 -7 9 1 2 -7 9 1 -6 0 2 -8 0 2 -8 0 J- H U 3 -8 0 4-8U 4 -8 0 IN IT IA L MONTH PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 1 12-78 1-79 ^ 11-78 *1 10-78 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 5 .9 12-78 5 *0 4 *1 1-79 4 *7 4 *1 4 *2 2-79 4 *4 4 *0 3 *9 3 *7 3-79 4 *5 4 *2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .7 4-79 3 *7 3 *3 3 *1 2.8 2 *3 3 .3 3 *2 3 *6 3 *9 2-80 3-80 4-80 3 *5 8 9 ,0 3 6 2 .4 8 9 ,3 9 8 8 9 ,6 2 6 3 *4 3 *3 3 *2 2 .7 4 .0 3 *1 3 *1 2 .9 2.8 2 .3 3 .1 2 .1 1 8-79 3 *2 2 *9 2 *6 2 #4 2 »5 1 *6 0 *9 * ^ 8 9 ,7 1 3 ^ o 9 ,7 6 2 3 .0 2 .7 2 .5 2 *3 2 *9 2 .7 2 *5 2*3 0.8 0.6 1.2 1*2 2*4 2*3 1 .3 1 *3 1 .4 1 .4 3-80 2.1 2.1 2*2 1*8 2*1 1*6 2*1 1*8 2.1 1*6 2*8 2.6 2*8 2.2 2.1 1*8 2.0 1.6 2.1 2.2 2.6 2.2 2.2 2.6 2.2 2.0 2*2 2 *7 2 .5 2 *4 2 .3 4-80 2*3 2 *1 2*0 1 *9 5-80 2*1 2 .5 1 .4 1 .7 2 .4 2 *9 2 .7 2 .5 2 .4 2 .4 2 .9 2 .7 2 .5 2 .4 2 .4 10-78 1-80 8 9 ,0 3 9 3 *5 1-80 12-79 to * > 3 *2 2-80 11-79 8 8 ,7 0 0 3 *8 12-79 10-79 » 133 3*5 11-79 9-79 8 8 ,4 3 3 6-79 10-79 8-79 88 7-79 9-79 7-79 8 7 *8 4 0 11-78 5-79 THOU SANOS OF PERSONS IN IT IA L MONTH TERMINAL MONTH ll- 7 b 12—7b 1-79 1 .9 1 *7 1 *5 1*5 1*2 2-7V 3-79 1 .5 5-79 8 9 ,9 8 2 2 .4 2*0 1*6 1.6 2.0 1 .7 2.0 2*1 2.8 2*0 2.2 2*2 2.0 1*8 2 .4 2 .9 2 .4 1 .9 0 *9 0*8 6-79 7-79 IN IT IA L 9 0 ,1 0 0 1 .5 V 0 ,2 4 l 1 .9 3 .0 3 .7 5 * > 2 .9 3 .3 4*1 2 .4 2*6 2 .3 1 *3 1 *2 1 *1 0 *9 0*0 0*9 0*7 0 *5 0 *2 8-7 9 9-79 10-79 11-79 12-79 1*7 4 -7 9 8 9 ,8 0 3 0 .5 V 0 ,o t> 2 V O ,8 4 5 V O ,819 . . . -0 *6 1-80 -2 *2 -4 *0 -2*3 -3*2 -2*4 2 -8 0 3-8 0 4-80 vQ t .328P MONTH P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPA RED BY FED ERA L R c S c R V E JU N E 6» 1980 2 öANK OF S T . L O U IS EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE MILLIONS OF RATIO PERSONS SEA SON ALL Y l 10 ♦ 5: I * i 105 MILLIONS ADJ UST ED \ I § OF SCALE PERSONS I 10 * i $ * :* i n 105 100 100 TOTAL- 95 95 -2.5Z y 90 90 >0. 9Z - /. /z . + 3 .i 85 85 l 4. OZ & P / S 3Z > /.4Z 80 *4 . 80 < 75 75 V PAYI*OLL 70 70 ? £ il 65 t § t 1974 t 1972 1973 * t 1975 1976 1977 1978 SO URCE: PERC EN T A G ES ARE ANNUAL R A T ES OF CHANCE FOR P E R IO D S LA T E ST DATA PLOTTED» ? s $ ? t 1979 t 1980 U .S.D E P A R T M E N T OF LABOR IN D IC A T E D . MAY P R E L IM IN A R Y PR EPA R ED BY FED ER A L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SEASONALLY PERCENT ADJUSTED PERCENT 10.0 9. 9.0 8. 8.0 \ 0 6. 6 .0 5. 5.0 4. 4.0 3. 3.0 Î.0 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 SO URCE: PERCEN T OF C I V I L I A N LA T E ST DATA PLO T TED : U .S . 1979 1980 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR LABOR FORCE MAY PREPARED BY FED ERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . L O U IS 3 CONSUMER P R IC E IN D E X , SEASONALLY A DJUSTED * COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R A tE S OF CHANGE TERM INAL MONTH IN I T I A L “ MONTH- 10-78 11-78 8.1 12-78 8 .7 1 1 -7 8 1 2 -7 8 1 —7 V 2— 79 3^79 4^79 5^79 6^79 7^79 (F7 9 1967*100 9 -> 9 1 0 -7 9 1 1 -7 9 1 2 -7 9 F^SO 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4 -8 ÌT 202 . 0 203.5 ~ 203^T ZÖ7.7 2 Ö 9.9 7T7.Q 214.1 216.4 —m r r 22Ö.9 223.4 2257Ì 227.* 230.7 " 2 3 4 ;o 257.2 24Ö.5 " 2 4 ?7 f 244.9 _________ 10—78 11-78 12-78 1-79 2-79 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 5-79 6-79 7-79 8-79 9-79 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 2 -6 0 3-80 4 -8 0 INITIAL MONTH *CPI-W FOR URBAN WAGE EARNERS AND CLERICAL WORKERS PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS JUNE 24, 1980 PRODUCER PRICE “ INDEX, FINISHED GOOOS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ------------------------------ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE---------------- ------------ TERMINAL INITIAL'MONTH 1967 « IW MONTH ------- 15-7*~f1-7* 12-7* 11-78 1-7* 1-7* 5-7* 4-7« §-7* l- 7 f M 11-7* 12-7* 1-46 2-*6 T-d6 4-66----------- 0.0 200.6_ INITIAL MONTH PREPA RED 0Y FEO ER A L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . JO N É 6 , 19*0 4 L O U IS ratio P R IC ES scale ratio scale H fP I- U FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS & C M - I FOR URBAN WAGE EARNERS AMO CLERICAL WORKERS PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIOO S INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED. MAY PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS RATIO PRODUCER P R I C E S S CALE 1967-100 25 0 19 7 2 SE A SO N A LLY 1973 19 7 4 1975 RATIO 1976 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIOD S 19 77 SCALE 1967-100 250 A D JU ST E D 1978 1979 1980 INOICATEO. LATEST DATA PLOTTED. MAY PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST LOUIS 5 PROOUCER P R IC E TERMINAL MONTH IN D E X , F IN IS H E D CONSUMER FOOOS - SEA SO N A LLY A D JU ST EO COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R A T ES O f CHANGE--------- --------------I N I T I A L MONTH 10-75 n -75 12-75 1-79 2-W 3-7* 4-7« 5-7* 6-7« r-7 * 5-7« 1*67 « «=79 10-7« 11-7« 12-7« 1=56 2-56 3-56 100 4-56 2l4.< 11-78 3.4 12-78 10.8 18.8 1-79 là .5 19.0 19.2 7-7« 14.« 1 5 .« 1 «.0 15.« ^3=7« ~ T 5 7 I 217.5 220.7 223.« T 5 .7 15 .0 17.5 I* . T 4-7« 11.5 15.1 11.« « .6 5.2 5-7« 7 .« 8.7 6.7 3 .« nb.i -4.7 22Ì>.ti -0.7 -8 .7 - IT .6 223. 5 -9.2 -11.4 -11.2 6-7« 5.3 5.6 3.5 0.7 -3.4 7-79 5.7 5 .« 4.2 1 .« -1.2 -571 -5.2 - 1 .* 5 .4 8-79 7.0 7.4 6.1 4.3 2.1 -0.5 0 .5 4 .* 14.0 I« .« 9-7« 7.9 8.4 7.3 5.9 4.2 2 .3 3.5 5.0 IT . 3 15.5 221.3 22770“ 226.2 22v.3 I7 .T 229.1 10-79 7.2 7.5 6 .4 5.1 3.5 1.5 2.9 6.1 11.0 11.8 7.9 -1.0 11-79 8.5 8.9 8.1 7.0 5.8 4 .5 5 .« 9.1 13.7 15.1 1375 11.5 25.6 12-79 8.1 8.5 7.6 6.6 5.5 4 .4 5.6 8.3 1 1 .* 12.6 “N O T " 8.6 1375 233.5 234.1 Ì. 1 232.6 1-8Ó 6.8 7.Ò 6.1 5.1 4.0 2.8 3 .7 5.8 8 .4 5.4 6.3 3.6 5.2 —3.8 -10.2 2-80 5.9 6.1 5.3 4 .3 3.1 2.0 2 .7 4.4 6.6 6 .5 ^4.2 177“ 274 -474 ^=77* 3-80 6.4 6.6 5.8 4.9 3.9 3.0 3.7 5.3 7 .4 7 .T 4-80 4.0 4.0 3.2 2.2 1.1 0 .0 0 .4 1.6 3.0 2.4 0.4 -1.9 -2.0 -6.7 -9.1 -8.7 -10.2 -29.1 5—80 3.9 3.9 3.1 2.2 1.1 0.2 0.5 1.6 2 .V 1 .5 575^ =1.4 =T.T -574 -7.0 -6.2 -6 .4 -15.1 10-78 11-78 12-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 7-79 9-79 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 2=56 3-50 4-50------------ ’ •5 “ ^76 8-79 ¥76“ -«*71 230.9 - 5 .T *l# 2 233 .4 IT .5 226.8 227.1 1*6 INITIAL MONTH PROOUCER PRICE INDEX, FINISHED GOODS, EXCLUOING FOOOS SEASONALLY ADJUSTEO COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL INITIAL MONTH MONTH -------- 15=75" 11-75 ii-76 I1 - 7 F 1-74 2-7« 3=7« 4-7* 5-79 1*67 « TOO 6-7« 7=7« 5=7« 9-7« 10-79 11-7« 12-79— l-*6 16*6 l* a 1 « .3 1 «.2 1 «.2 » .6 Z i.ó * .5 “T5 7 T T5.9^ “ l9.r “ 2672 20.3 20*6 23.6 26*9 1 4 . 9 W .4 1670 T5.4 T 5. V 15.2 15.$ 1T :D 1775 17 T 5 . Ò T575 4-80 16.2 16.6 5=eo 1 5 .5 1 5 .8 1 0 -7 8 1 1 -7 8 16.9 1 2 -7 8 234.3 1879“ 1971 2071 20.4 22.6 257T 22.2 19.5 17.1 17.4 it .9 18.2 18.6 19.1 1971 fÓ H 2072 20.4 2271 24.3 21.6 19.9 16.2 16.5 16.8 1 7 .0 1 7 .3 17.6 17.6 18,2 18.0 17.8 18.T Ì9 .«T 16.8 T 4 .2 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 5 -7 9 6 -7 9 7 -7 9 8 -7 9 9 -7 9 1 0 -7 9 1 1 -7 9 IN IT IA L 10.2 1 2 -7 9 1 -6 0 2 -8 0 237^8“ 241.5 20.4 ÌÌ.6 3 -8 0 3.5 ) 242 .2 4-80 MONTH PREPA RED BY FED ERA L R E S E R V E BANK OF S f . JU N E 6 , 1 9 8 0 6 L O U IS INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION RATIO SCALE 1 972 1 97 3 1 974 1 97 5 1976 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PE R IO D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED: SCALE 1967-100 SEASONALLY AOJUSTEO 1967-100 1977 1978 1979 1 98 0 IND ICATED. MAY PR ELIM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF S . L O U IS INDUSTRIAL COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL TERMINAL MONTH 10— 7 8 11-76 7.5 U-78 8.7 INITIAL 11-78 12-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 PRODUCTION R A T E S OF C H A N G E 1967 MONTH 7-79 8-79 9-79 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 2-60 3-80 4-80 150.6 151.8 10.0 151.5 J L rJ l 2-79 4.7 3.8 0.8 152.0 4 . 0 \ 153.0 3-79 5.4 4.9 3.2 6.1 8.2 4-79 1.5 0.3 -2.0 -1.8 -4.6 5-79 3.1 2.4 1.0 1.8 1.1 6-79 2.9 2.3 1.1 1.8 1.2 7.4 1.6 152.6 7-79 2.8 2.2 1.1 1.7 1.3 -0.4 5.4 1.6 152.8 8-79 1.5 0.9 -0.2 0.1 -0.5 -2.2 1.6 -2.1 151.6 150.8 -16.0 -2.3 152.4 13.5 IN IT IA L MONTH P- P R E L IM IN A R Y PREPA RED BY FED ERA L R ESE R V E JU N E 1 3, 1980 7 BANK OF S T . L O U IS PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS OF I NCOME MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED -> RATIO TRILLIONS OF SCALE DOLLARS ? ). SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIOD S L A TE S T DATA P L O TTE D : U .S . OEPARTIIENT OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E D . MAY P R ELIM IN AR Y PREPARED 8Y FEDERAL RESERVE SANK OF S . L O U IS PERSONAL INCOME COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATir OP CH a NSE TERMINAL initial I5-7T 11-7* l*-7* 1-79 2=7* 3=79 4-79 "3=79 ¿=74 7=74 ÑOn TST *-79‘"9=79 10-79 li-79'12-79 ï h 56 2-éÔ 3-*5 4-60 BILLIONS OF ÓÓLLARS ANNUAL RATES “T7Í5T74 ”11*11“ R 7 b 16.9 l-W 12^3 2-79 12.j3 1 ,8 2 6 .6 ll** 1 ,8 3 4 .3 I 5 *0 *•4 1 ,8 5 1 .4 11«* 3-7V ”12777 1Z.Z 1 0 .9 13.0 4-79 "T T 7 3 " 10.9 *9.1 Iff.3" 1,872.1 979 1 " T ,7*577“ ■" “ I759T75“ 15¿9 15.1— 11.6 T577 T 5 7 T W T Q 19.2 1,933.2" 157* 1,94575“ r¿9 6 5 7 f~ - 9 .6 T57* 16.T u r ;i it .6 'i i . r iK F 16. J t n r _i 5 T Í7 3 ~ iÍ. 2 IÓ .9 T l.6 “Í2 .4 13.1 il.6 1 2 '.T ” « 7 7 ” T 3 7 T r r .6 11.3 1 2 .0 1Ï7 T " 1 Ì.4 1 2 .2 Ï3 7 Î 1 4 .7 15.1 Ì4 .J 13.1 1 2 .1 1 2 .* 13 .6 Ì3 .4 t2 .9 ~ “ fY 7 3 iô .e I t .6 1173~“I2 7 T 1 1 .6 1 1 .5 1 Ï.3 1 1 .4 1 2 .5 ir a t w 1577- T ra u .t - u .i íi. ó T i.v n r i.7 10. 9 -10.9 id .6 “ 9Ü9---975 --- 4 .4 973^ 10-76 11-76 12—T8 13.9 T77T 1-79 2-79 _9 .?r 3-79 1 5 .7 5-T9 i® . * n a 1Ô.3---973“ “ 974“ 6-79 1.981.2 X 2 ,5 5 3 .3 " 2.026.3 “ 2 755573” ~ r ,« 3 5 7 7 n . r i T T r t 2 t it t t t t ~ w .it 973— 97* “ T73 4 -7 9 T u .3 ~ rra 3 .3 -177" 2,067.5“ 5 .ÏT 373 2 .8 5 .5 2,575.0V 9-7 9 10-79 11-T9 12-79 1-80 2-60 3-60 ~973--- ffT T ” " 7 3 “ ” 371--- 571“ 37T ~ 7 7 *' T-79 6-79 2,070.0 “ h w «75 4-60 I N I T I A L MONTH P R E L IM IN A RY PR E P A R E O BY FE O E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . L O U IS -------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JU N É 1 7 , 1985----------------------------------------- 8 R E T A I L SALES RATIO SCALE B I L L IONS 1972 OF RATIO DOLLARS 1 97 3 SEASO N ALLY 1 974 1975 B I L L IONS A D JU S T E D 1 97 6 1 97 7 1978 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P ER IO D S LATEST DATA PLOTTED: A P R IL , U .S . OF 1979 SCALE DOLLARS 1 98 0 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IND ICATED. MAY ADVANCE ESTIM ATE PREPARED 8Y FEDERAL R ESER V E BANK OF ST . LO U IS RETAIL SALES COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE INITIAL TERMINAL MILLIONS OF ____ D O L L A R S ____ MONTH MONTH____ 10-78 11-78 13.0 12-78 15.4 11-78 12-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 5-79 6-79 7-79 8-79 9-79 10-79 11-79 12-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 69*871 70*832 17.8 71*293 1-79 71*266 72*045 71*606 72*292 7 2 t0 9 3 ~ 72*121 7-79 5.7 4.9 3.1 2.3 2.9 0.3 2.9 -1.4 0.5 8 —7 V 1 0 .Ö 9.7 8.7 8.8 10.4 9.7 14.3 15.1 25.5 56.7 9-79 11.9 11.8 11.1 11.5 13.3 13.2 17.8 19.3 27.9 44.3 32.9 76*066 5.8 75*583 .6.4% 74*871 10-79 9.3 9*0 8.1 8.1 9.2 8.6 11.4 11.3 15.2 20.6 11-79 9.6 9.4 8.6 8.7 9.8 9.2 11.8 11.7 1 5 .0 19.0 8.5~ — 1.9~ 14.T 12-79 9.8 9.6 8.9 9.0 10.0 9.6 11.8 11*8 14.5 17.6 9.4 2.5 13.1 12.1 1-80 11.7 11.7 11.2 11.5 12.6 12.5 14.9 15.2 18.2 21.4 15.4 11.4 22.2 26.4 2-80 9.4 9.2 8.6 8.6 9.4 9.0 10.8 10.7 12.5 14.4 8.5 4.2 9.9 8.5 -15.7 76*421 3-80 7.4 7.1 1 6.3 6.8 6.2 7.5 7.1 8.3 9.3 3.8 -0.3 3.0 0.4 4-80 5.3 4.9 4.1 3.9 4.2 3.5 4.4 3.8 4.5 4.9 -0.2 -4.2 -2.1 -5.1 5-80 4.1 3.6 2.8 2.5 2.7 1.9 2.6 1.9 2.4 2.6 -2.2 -5.8 -4.3 -7.1 10-78 11-78 i2^ia 1 - .Z Ä 2-79 *-79 5-79 -8.-79 _ * - 7 9 ia-72 1 6- * l 1 t 7*_ 6 - I f t .. 1 - 7 9 IN IT IA L 77*150 79*464 42.6 77*993 6.7 -20.1 -20.2 -20.3 -9.0 -21.6 -22.3 -3.2 76*534 - 1 0 . 5 - 2 0 . 4 - 2 0 . 4 - 2 0 .5 linia. 1 2 - 7 9 1-80 ^2-80 7*,774k -24.4 -16.5 7 3 *658 l 3-80 MONTH P- P R E L IM IN A R Y F- ESTIM A TED PREPA RED »V FED ERA L R ES E R V E . BANK Of S I « L O U IS JU N E 1 1 . 1980 9 -------- ---------------------------------------------- HOURLY COMPENSATION. P R IV A T E B U S IN E S S SECTOR COMPOUNDED ANNUAL P A T ES OP CHANCE T E R M IN A L IN IT IA L Q UARTER 1 9 6 7 « 1 0 0 * 1 0 0 OUTPUT pat mm» o f a l l p e rs o n s , p r iv a t e b u sin e ss s e c t o r COM POUNDED T E R M IN A L IN IT IA L 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-7 6 ANNUAL R A T ES 3-77 4-77 OP CHANGE Q UARTER 1-77 1 9 6 7 2-77 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 H 5 7*3 1 1 4 .6 4-75 2*3 1—2 . 4 s 1 1 3 .9 1-76 4 .0 2 .5 2-7* 3*4 2 .1 4 .4 1 .4 3-76 3*1 2 .1 3 .6 1 .7 2 .1 " 4-7 6 2*0 1 .9 3 .1 1 .6 1 .7 1 .4 1-77 3*1 2 .4 3 .4 2 .3 2 .6 2 .9 4 .5 2-77 2*4 1 .7 2 .4 1 .4 1 .4 1.1 1 .0 - 2 .3 2 .2 2 .5 1 .5 1 1 6 .0 T *‘\ 1 1 6 .4 1 1 7 .0 1 1 7 .* 1 1 8 .7 1 1 8 .0 ^ n j . 4 % 3-77 2 .7 2 .2 2 .0 2 .1 2 .2 4-77 2*2 1 .7 2 .2 1 .5 1.5 1 .4 1 .4 0 .3 1 .7 - 2 .0 1-7« 1 .9 1 .3 1 .0 1.1 1.0 0 .9 0 .7 - 0 .2 0 .6 - 1 .0 - 1 .7 1*9 1 .4 1.0 1 .2 1.2 1 .0 1 .0 0 .3 0 .9 —0 .6 0 .2 2 .0 1.5 2—70 5 .5 1 1 9 .6 1 1 9 .0 1 1 8 .*> 1 1 9 .1 1.9 1 .3 1 .3 1 .2 1 .2 0 .6 1.2 0 .2 0 .9 2.2 2 .4 1 .7 1.2 1 .2 1 .1 1 .1 0 .6 1.1 0.2 0.0 1.6 1.3 1 .4 0 .9 0 .0 0 .7 0 .6 0 .1 0 .5 - 0 .3 0 .0 0 .4 — 0.1 - 1 .3 0 .9 1.1 0 .6 0 .6 0 .4 0 .3 - 0 .1 0 .2 - 0 .6 - 0 .3 - 0 .1 - 0 .6 - 1 .6 - 2 .5 - 2 . 0 ^ ^ - 1 . 5 % 0 .7 0 .9 0 .5 0 .4 0 .3 0 .2 - 0 .2 0 .0 - 0 .7 - 0 .5 - 0 .3 - 0 .7 - 1 .5 - 2 .1 - 1 .7 - 1 .3 1*0 0 .7 0 .9 0 .4 0 .4 0 .2 0 .1 - 0 .2 - 0 .0 - 0 .6 - 0 .5 - 0 .3 —0 .7 - 1 .3 - 1 .7 - 1 .2 -0 .0 -o .b \ 0 .9 0 .6 0 .0 0 .3 0*3 0 .1 0.1 -0.3 -0.1 -0.7 -0.5 -0.4 -0.7 -1.2 -1.5 -1.2 -0.9 -0.7 ).n *-T7 4.7 7 i-T ft ?«TR___3e.7fl__ *=Za-- U U — Z sZS— 3m2S— 6=2SL 3-70 1*9 4-70 1*0 Ll i J 1-79 1*5 1.1 2-79 1*3 3-79 1.1 4-79 1-00 2 m 25— 1*25— * s2 S — U U — 2a26— Ir T d 4=76— l* T T IN IT IA L 1 1 9 .8 0 .3 s 1 1 9 .9 -3 .0 1 1 9 .0 1 1 8 .4 1 1 8 .0 ^ — 1.0^ 1 1 7 .9 1 1 7 . 6 Q UARTER P R F P A lF fl ftY F F Q fR A I MAY 30« 1990 10 B F SERV E ftANK flF S I . ifM II.S PR O D U C TIVITY, RATIO SCALE COM PENSATION, 1 9 6 7- 1 0 0 AND LABOR 1967- 100 SEASO N ALLY AD JUSTED SOURCE« PE R CE N T A G E S AR E ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE FOR PER 10 0 $ L A T E S T OATA PLO TTED« COSTS RATIO SCAL«_ U S. DEPARTMENT OF LABO R I NO IC A T E 0 . IS T OUARTER PR EPARED BY F E D E R A L R E SE R VE BANK OF S T . L O U IS W U T LABOR COSTS» PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL QUARTER 1967 • 100 W A B E ft ttv cenM AI ttKPttWE HAH, fife ST . * fü ll * NAY 3 0 * 1900 11 SftQSS N A I I M A L P ftO P tfU IN C lt t f t S N l M W L M S COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE B I L L I O N S OF ÔOLLÂRS ANNUAL R A T ES INITIAL QUARTER t e r m in a l QUARTE« 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 5 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 3 -7 5 1 8 .6 * -* 5 Ï 3 .7 9.0 1 4 .0 IU9~ 2-76 12.3 10.3 ~3-76~ " Ï T * 4~ 9.7 4-76 11.1 9.7 9.9 8.3 8.9 9.7 1-77 11*7 10.6 11.0 10.1 11.0 12.5 15.4 2-77 11*9 11.0 11.3 10.6 11.5 12.6 14.1 12.8 3-77 11*9 11.1 11.4 10.9 ~ U . 6~"12.5" 13.5 12.5 12.1 4-77 11.6 10.8 11.1 10.6 8.7 1-78 11.3 10.6 10.8 10.3 2-78 12*0 11*4 11.6 3-78 11*9 11.4 11.6 4-78 12.1 11.6 11.8 1-79 12.0 11.5 11.7 2-79 11.7 11.2 11.4 3-79 11.7 11*3 11.4 4-79 11*6 11.2 1-60 11.6 11.2 _2-75 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 W 9 I »564.0 1*598.0 14.7 1#653.7 1 »683.1 1 »715.8 r.756.1 1 »820.2 1 »876.0 11.6% 1 »930.5 11.1 11.7 12.3 11.2 10.4 10.7 11.2 11.5 10.5 9.7 8.5 11.3 11.8 12.4 12*8 12.3 1 2 .2 12.2 13.9 19.8 11.3 11.7 12.2 12.5 12.1 11.9 11.9 12.9 15.3 11.0 11.6 12.0 12.5 12.8 12.5 12.4 12*4 13.4 15.1 12.8 14.8 11.5 11.9 12.3 12.6 12.2 12.1 12.1 12.8 14.0 12.1 12.6 10.6 11.1 11.4 11.8 12.0 11*6 11.4 11.3 11.8 12.5 10.7 10.6 8.6 6.7 2 »329.8 11.2 11*5 11.8 12.0 11*6 11.5 11*4 11«8 12.4 11.0 11.0 9.7 9.3 2*396.5 11*4 11.1 11.4 11.7 11.8 11.5 11.4 11.3 11.6 12*1 10.9 10.9 9.9 9.7 11.3 11.1 11.4 11.6 11.8 11*5 11.3 11.3 11.5 12.0 10.9 10.9 1 0 . 1 ]| 1 0 . 0 1-79 -Zr19 3-7* 4-78 ..21=75 _. 4 - 7 5 1 - 7 6 ..¿-76 76- *r76. .1=77. 2-77 I »971.3 8.4 .1=77 . . H T 2*011.3 ~Z ÎTÎ04.2 2 »159.6 2*235.2 2 »292*1 11.2 10.5 V 11.1 10.6 _Lr7.9 .._2=ZS... 3 - 7 9 2 *456 .9 10.8^ 2*520*8 *.“7 9 _ INITIAL QUARTER- 6RQSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1?72 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF C H A N G E INITIAL QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER 2-75 3-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 ■ M ILLIO N S OP DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 4-79 I »22 0 *0 10*5 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREfARfcD 8T F tO E R A L RfcSfcKffc *A N * Uh S I * JU N E 18» 1980 L O U IS GROSS N A T I O N A L P R OD U C T RA T I O SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES RATIO SCALE DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 2 . 6 2 .5 .4 .3 2 . 2 . 0 2 2 2 2 .9 . 8 .7 .5 . 2 . 0 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES L ATE ST ARE ANNUAL DATA P LOTTED: RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O DS 1978 U.S. 1979 1980 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE I NDI CATED. 1ST QUARTER PREPARED 13 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST LO U IS 0 GENERAL P RI CE RATIO I NDEX* SCALE RATIO 1972-100 130 175 170 165 160 155 150 /y +/1 Ar / y J r ---- / s / y 145 SCALE 1972-100 180 ■"t ?174.48 - 175 170 165 160 155 150 / 145 140 140 135 135 ... 130 125 130 125 r * " ■ * // 1 20 120 15 115 y *r.n y 10 ¿ 105 110 y y 105 100 100 95 Ç £----- £ 90 § ♦ 85 «A S USED --- $ t 1 97 3 $ ♦ 1974 IN NATIONAL S t 1 975 1976 INCOME ACCOUNTS LAT EST DATA PLOTTEDt 90 S t 19 77 1978 SOURCEt PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S 95 $ 1 1 ♦ 1972 - U .S . 1979 85 1980 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IND ICATED. 1ST OUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL R E SE R V E BANK OF S . L O U IS IMPLICIT PRICE M F L A T O R FOR CROSS MAT ION AL PRODUCT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL INITIAL QUARTER 2-75 5-75 4—75 1-76 3-75 7*3 4-75 6*8 6*2 1-T6 5*7 4*9 3*6 2-76 5*4 4*8 4*1 4*6 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1972 • 100 1-78 2-78 3-7« 4-78 1-74 2-79 3-79 4-79 128*19 130*14 131*30 132*79 3-76 5*3 4*8 4*3 4*7 4*8 4-76 5*4 5*1 4*8 5*2 5*4 6*1 134*35 1-77 5*5 5*2 5*0 5*4 5*6 6*0 6*0 136*34 138*34 2-77 5*8 5*6 5*5 5*8 ~6*r 6*6 6*8 7*7 3-77 5*7 5*5 5*4 5*7 5*9 6*1 6*2 6*2 4*8 140*93 4-77 5*7 5*6 5*5 5*8 6*0 6*2 6*2 6*3 5*6 6*4 1-78 5*8 5*6 5*6 5*8~ 6.0 6*2 6*2 6*3 5*8 6*4 142*59 144*82 147*05 [6*3* 2-78 6*2 6*1 6*1 6*4 6*6 6*8 7*0 7*2 7*0 7*8 8*5 3-78 6*3 6*2 6*2 6*4 6*6 6*9 7*0 7*2 7*0 7*6 8*0 4-78 6*4 6*4 6*4 6*6 6*8^ 7*1 7*2 7*4 7*3 7*8 8*2 1-79 6*6 6*6 6*6 6*9 7*1 7*3 7*4 7*6 7*6 8*1 8*4 2-79 6*8 6*8 6*8 7*0 7*2 ~7*%~ 7*6 7*8 7*8 8*3 8*6 3-79 6*9 6*9 6*9 7*1 7*3 7*6 7*7 7*9 7*9 8*3 8*6 7*2N. 153*45 8*8 7*9 8*7 V . 156*68 9*0 8*4 9*0 9*0 8*6 9*1 9*3 9*3 V 8*9 8*6 9*0 9*1 8*9 8*5 1 -7 * 4 -7 * 1 -7 9 7 -7 9 8*9 4-79 7*0 7*0 7*0 7*2 7*4 7*6 7*8 7*9 7*9 8*3 8*5 8*9 1-80 7*1 7*1 7*1 7*4 7*6 7*8 7*9 8*0 8*1 8*4 | 8*6 8*9 3 -7 5 * -7 5 * -T * 1 -7 * 2 -7 6 A -T 6 t -T T 2 -7 7 W TT * -7 7 1 -7 « W 4 150*82 . o . . \ 8.6% 160*22 9*3 »»F P A fc E P RV P g ftP ftâ l JU N E 18» 1980 14 163.8ÌT 167*20 3-79 RFSFR VE 4-7 » . P E RSONAL CONSUMPTION E X P E N D IT U R ES I * CURRENT DO LLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R A T ES OF CHANGE INITIAL QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-7® 2-78 3-78 12*6 4-75 12.1 11*6 1-76 12*5 12.4 1 * 0 2 1 .6 13.2 1*053.8 1*073.7 2-76 11*3 1 0.8 10.5 7.8 3-76 11.1 10.7 10.4 9.1 10.4 4-76 11.2 1 1 .0 1 0 .8 1 0*0 1 1 .2 1 2 .0 1-77 11.6 11.4 11.4 10*9 1 2 .0 12.9 13.8 2-77 11.1 10.9 10.7 1 0 .2 10.9 1 1 .1 1 0 .6 3-77 11.0 1 0 .8 10.7 10.3 1 0 .8 10.9 1 0 .6 9.0 10.5 4-77 11.3 1 1.1 1 1 .0 10.7 1 1 .2 11.4 11.3 10.5 1 2 .0 13.4 1-78 11.0 10.9 1 0 .8 10.5 10.9 1 1 .0 io.e 1 0.1 1 1 .0 1 1 .2 2-78 11.3 1 1 .2 1 1 .2 10.9 11.3 11.5 11.4 10.9 1 1 .8 12.3 11.7 14.4 3-78 11.4 11.3 1 1 .2 1 1 .0 11.4 11.5 T ï^ 5 1 1 .1 1 1 .8 12.2 11.8 13.2 11.9 Ü 2 .2 12.6 12.4 13*5 13.1 14.2^ 11.6 1-79 8 I L L 1 Û N & OF OOLLARS ____ ____ ANNUAL RATES 3-79 4-79 994.0 3-75 4-78 4-78 ___ __ 2-79 11.5 11.5 11.3 11.7 1*100.5 1 1 .8 1,132.0 11.T 1*169.1 1*190.5 7.5 11.5 1 * 2 2 0 .6 1*259.7 1*267.2 9.0 1*331.2 1*369.3 1*415.4 12.4 12.2 13.0 12.5 12.8 11*4 1Ï.5 Ü . Ï 11.6 10 . 9 ” 1 0 . 5 8.7 4-79 11.6 11.5 11.5 11.4 11.7 11*8 1 1 .8 1 1 .6 1 2 .0 12.2 12.0 12*4 12.1 12.2 11.7 11.7 1 4 «7 14.3 1-80 11.7 1 1 .6 1 1 .6 11.5 1 1 .8 11.9 11.9 11.7 1 2 .1 12.3 12.1 12.5 12.2 12.3 11.9 12.1 14.1 13.6 13.0 2— 75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1- 7 7 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2 - 78 3-78 4-78 1- T t t - 2 - 7 9 3-79 4-7ft 3-78 4-78 1-79 3-79 4-79 C OMPOUNOED ANNUAL R ATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL OOLLARS INITIAL QUARTER 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 3-75 ~5.0 4-75 5.5 6.0 1— 7 6 6.5 7.2 8.4 2-76 5.8 6.0 6.0 3.6 3-76 5.6 5.7 5.6 4.2 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 2-79 779.7“ 791.1 807.3 814.5 4.7 4-76 5.7 5.8 5.7 4.8 5.4 1-77 5.7 5.9 5.8 5.2 2-77 5.2 ~5i3 5m2 4.5 5.7 __ 3-77 5.2 5.2 5.1 4.6 4-77 5 * 5 ~ ~ 5.6 5.5 824.0 836.4 6.2 6.2 6.3 4.7 4.0 1.8 849.2 4.8 4.8 4.4 3.4 5.1 5.4 5^5~ ~ 3 . ï 853.1 5.1 863.7 6.6 ~8.2 880.9 1-78 5.1 5.1 5.0 4.6 4.7 4.7 4.4 3.9 4.7 4.4 0.8" 2-78 5.1 5.1 5.1 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.3 4.9 4.8 3.2 5.6 3-78 57l r.r 5.0 4.7 4.8 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.9 4.8 3.7 5.2 4.8 5.2 5 .Z 4.5 5.7 ~ 5.8 6.8 4.5 4.4 3.7 4.4 4.0 3.7 0.7 3.4 2.6 2.9 2.3 1.4 -1.1 -2.9 4.9 5 .2 5.2 4.9 5.0 5.0 4.T 4.7 1-79 4.9 4 .9 4.8 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.4 4.2 2-79 4.4 4^ 4.2 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.7 3.4 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.5 3.7 4 — 78 ~ 5.F 882.7 894.8 905.3 920.3 921.8 915.0 i ^ 4.4 4 .4 4 .3 3.5 2.9 3.2 2.8 2.3 0.8 0.9 4-79 4.4 4^ 4.3 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.8 3.6 3.0 3.4 3.0 2.7 1.6 2.0 4.5 4.2 1-80 4.2 4^ 4.0 3.8 3.8 3.7 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.3 2.8 3.0 2.6 2.3 1.4 1.6 3.1 2.3 0.5 2 = 26_. 3 - 7 6 4-76 1=77 -2=77 4-77 l-Tfl 2-78 4-78 _ 1-79 2-29 3=29. . Éria 2-75 3=75 4-75 1=26_ -3=72- 3-7« 925.9 935.4 936.5 I N I T I A L QUARTER PR E P A R E D RV F E D E R A L R E S E R V E RAN* OF S T . L O U IS JU N E 1 8 * 1 9 8 0 15 CROSS P R IV A T E DOMESTIC INVESTM ENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS COHPOUNOfO ANNUAL R A T ES OP CHANCE -----------------------------------------------INITIAL QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 3-75 94.1 4-75 35.4 -5.5 1-76 46.7 27.5 72.0 2-76 38.1 23*2 40.7 15.2 3-76 31.2 19.0 28.4 11.0 7.0 4—76 27.0 16*6 23.0 9*9 7.4 7.9 1-77 30.6 22.5 29.0 20.1 21.8 29.9 56.5 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 2-78 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 206.8 203.9 233.5 241.9 246.0 250.7 280.4 300.0 2-77 30.9 23.7 29.4 22.2 24.0 30.3 43.2 31.0 3-77 29.9 23*6 28.4 2 2 ^ 23.7 26.3 36.0 26.6 22.6 4-77 26.6 20.9 24.7 19.1 19.7 22*5 26.4 17.7 11.6 1.5 12.2 7.3 13.4 1-78 1-78 6 I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 4-79 315.7 316.9 327.0 23.4 18.3 16.6 20.9 23.7 16.6 21.4 24.5 20.1 20.7 22.8 25.5 20.0 17.4 15.7 23.6 34.7 19.9 22*5 16.4 18.8 20.3 22.2 17.3 14.7 12.6 16.9 18.7 4.5 17.3 15.1 13.7 16.9 16.1 10.6 25.5 20.1 2-78 26.2 3-78 24.4 352.3 356.2 T t O.5 17.1 4-78 23*9 19.7 22.0 18.3 18.6 20.0 21.6 1-79 22.4 1 8 «4 20.5 17.0 17.1 18.2 19.4 15.5 13.4 11.9 14.1 14.3 8.2 10.1 3.6 2-79 22.6 18.9 20.8 17.6 17.8 18.8~ 20.0 16.5 14.6 13.7 15.9 16.4 12.2 14.9 13.9 25.2 3-79 20.9 17*4 19.1 16.0 16.0 16.6 17.7 14.4 12.7 11.5 13.0 12.9 9.0 10.1 7.9 10.1 -3.1 4.8 -4.1 -5.1 -2.6 -2.3 373.8 395.4 392.3 387.2 4-79 19.3 15.9 17.4 14.4 14.4 15.0 15.6 12.5 10.7 9.5 10.5 10.1 6.5 6.9 4.5 1-60 18.2 15.0 16.3 13.5 13 .4 13.9 14.4 11.4 9.6 6 .6 9.4 6.9 5.6 5.6 3.7 3.7 — 2-75 3-75 4-75 l - 7 6 _ ...Zrltt— 3 - 7 6 4-76 1-77 2-77 3=T7 . 4-77 1-78 2r£A. 3r.78_ 4 - 78. 1-79 2 - 2 9 - ..3.-.ISL 4r29_.. 4 —7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 0.5 ^387.7~ I N I T I A L Q U A R T E R _______ n U U n c a ilL M l r e a i n c n J IB I T f t HIM CON P O U N O E O A NNUAL R A TES OF CHAN C E M T W IC TERMINAL INITIAL QUARTER — QUARTER 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 5 7 6 .6 4 -7 5 2 4 .8 1 -7 6 3 6 .2 22.2 6 9 .5 2 -7 6 3 0 .4 1 7 .8 3 6 .2 9 .5 3 -7 6 2 3 .9 13 a 2 3 .3 5 .1 4 -7 6 2 0 .2 1 1 .3 1 6 .0 1 -7 7 2 2 .6 1 5 .6 22.0 1 2 .4 1 3 .4 2 0 .2 3 9 .7 2 -7 7 2 2 .4 1 6 .1 2 ia 1 3 .6 1 4 .6 1 9 .9 2 9 .1 19^ 1 7 .1 1 5 .0 4 -7 7 3 -7 7 ftlLO O L L A R S F ANNUAL RATES 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 1 5 3 .7 - -1 1 .9 1 6 9 .9 4 .6 173a 0 .9 2.2 1 7 4 .2 3 .5 1 7 3 .7 1 9 1 .0 199 a 3 -7 7 2 1 .5 1 6 .0 2 0 .6 1 4 .0 1 4 .9 1 6 .7 2 4 .2 4 -7 7 1 8 .3 1 3 .2 1 6 .6 1 0 .7 1 0 .9 1 3 .0 1 5 .5 8 .5 3 .4 1 -7 8 1 7 .6 1 3 .1 1 6 .3 1 0 .9 1 1 .1 1 2 .9 1 4 .9 9 .4 6 .3 2.2 1 2 .4 2 0 6 .7 2 0 3 .0 -7 .0 2 0 9 .0 2 -7 8 1 7 .6 1 3 a 1 6 .2 1 1 .4 1 1 .7 13 ^ 1 5 .0 1 0 .7 6 .6 6 .6 1 4 .1 1 5 .6 3 -7 6 1 5 .7 1 1 .7 1 4 .1 9 .7 9 .7 1 0 .6 1 1 .9 7 .9 5 .7 3 .5 7 .3 4 .6 -5 .1 4 -7 6 1 5 .0 1 1 .3 1 3 .4 9 .4 9 .4 1 0 .3 1 1 .2 7 .7 5 .9 4 .1 7 .1 5 .4 0 .6 6 .5 1 -7 9 1 3 .9 1 0 .4 1 2 .3 6 .5 6 .4 9 .2 9 .9 6 .6 4 .9 3 .4 5 .6 3 .9 0 .2 3 .0 -0 .4 2 -7 9 1 3 .6 1 0 .3 1 2 .0 8 .5 6 .5 9 .2 9 .7 6 .6 5 .4 4 .1 6 .1 4 ^ 2 .3 4 .6 4 .0 3 -7 9 1 1 .8 8 .7 1 0 .2 6 .8 6 .6 7 .1 7 .5 4 .7 3 .2 1 .8 3 .1 1 .7 - 1 .0 0 .1 4 -7 9 1 0 .4 7 ^ 6 .7 5 .5 5 .2 5 .6 5 .7 3 .1 1 .6 0.2 1 .2 -0 .4 - 2 .8 —2 . 4 1 -6 0 9 .3 6 .4 7 .6 4 .6 4 .3 4 .5 4 .6 2 .1 0 .7 -0 .7 0 .0 -1 .4 -3 .6 -3 .4 1 -7 6 _2t 7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 -2 -1 1 3 -7 7 _ M 7 1 -7 8 2 r7 B . 2 -7 5 .-J H 7 5 1 4 6 .9 lrTT. 2 1 6 .6 2 1 4 .0 2 1 7 .4 2 1 7 .2 6 .5 2 2 1 .7 - 2 .0 -2 .7 -1 2 .9 2 1 4 .2 -4 .5 - 5 a - 1 2 .2 - 1 1 .6 ^ 5 .3 —6 . 4 - 1 1 .0 - 1 0 .0 3 -7 8 _ 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 2 0 7 .7 -6 .4 2 0 3 .2 3 -7 9 L . 4 - 2 * INITIAL QUARTER PREPA RED BY FED ERA L R FX FR V C BANK OF S T . L O U IS JU N E 1 8 , 1980 16 _GOVERNMENT PURCH ASES OF COOPS AND S E R V IC E S IN CURRENT DO LLARS CONFOUNDED ANNUAL R A T ES OF CHANCE TERMINAL I N I T I A L QUARTER q uarter 2—75 3-75 ~ W 5 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-7 6 1-77 2-7 7 3-77 4-77 1-78 2-78 3 -7 0 4 -7 8 1-79 2 -7 9 3-79 __ P IL L IO N S O f . 004. L A R S ANNUAL R A T E S 4-7 9 9 .9 3 6 2 .2 1 0 .6 1 1 .3 1-76 0 .4 7 .7 4 .2 2-76 7 .0 6 .0 3 .4 2 .7 3 -7 6 6 .7 5 .9 4 .2 4 .2 5 .6 4-76 7 .1 6 .5 5 .3 5 .7 7 .3 9 .0 1-77 7 .6 7 .2 6 .4 7 .0 0 .5 9 .9 10.9 3 5 1 *5 355.1 357.5 362.4 370.3 300.0 2-7 7 0 .2 0 .0 7 .5 0.1 9 .5 10.9 11.0 12.0 3 -77 0 .4 0*2 7 .7 0 .4 9 .5 10.5 11.0 11.1 9 .4 4 -7 7 0 .0 0 .7 0 .4 9 .0 10.1 11.0 11.5 11.7 11.1 12.9 10.2 10*5 10.4 9 .6 9 .7 391.6 400.5 412.0 1-70 0 .6 0.5 0 .2 0 .7 9 .6 2-70 0 .6 0.5 0 .2 0 .7 9 .5 10.0 10.2 10.0 9 .4 9 .4 7 .7 0 .0 3-70 0 .9 0*0 0 .6 9 .0 9 .0 10.3 10.5 10.4 10.0 10.1 9 .2 10.5 12.3 4-70 9 .1 9.1 0 .9 9 .3 10.0 10.5 10.7 10.7 10.3 10.5 9 .9 11.1 12.3 12.2 1-79 0 .9 0 .0 0 .6 9 .0 9 .6 10.0 10.1 10.0 9 .6 9 .7 9 .1 9 .7 10.0 0 .9 5 .7 6 .6 419 .4 42 0 .3 440 .9 453.0 460.1 2-7 9 0 .7 0.6 0 .4 0 .0 9 .3 9.6 9 .7 9 .6 9 .2 9 .1 0 .5 0 .9 0 .9 7 .0 5 .7 5 .8 3 -7 9 0 .0 0 .7 0 .5 0 .0 9 .3 9 .7 9 .7 9 .6 9 .2 9 .2 0 .7 9 .1 9 .1 0 .4 7 .1 7 .0 10.0 4-79 9 .4 9 .4 9 .3 9 .6 10.1 10.5 10.6 10.6 10.4 10.5 10.2 10.7 11.0 10.0 1 0 .4 1 2.1 15.4 2 1 .1 1-00 9 .6 9*6 9 .5 9 .9 10.3 10.7 10*0 10.0 10.6 10.8 10.5 11.0 11.4 11.2 11.0 1 2 .4 14 .7 17.2 13.4 2-75 3-75 4 -7 5 1-76 2-76 3-76 4 -7 6 1-77 2-77 3—77 4 -7 7 1-70 2-70 3—70 4 -7 0 1-79 2-79 3-79 4 -7 9 4 6 6 .6 477.0 501.2 517.2 IN IT IA L QUARTER GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SERVICES IN 1972 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES IN IT IA L QUARTER TERMINAL QUARTER 2-75 5—75 3 .4 4-75 3 .2 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-7 6 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-7 7 3-77 4-77 1-70 2-70 3—70 4 -70 1-79 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 263.0 2 .9 265.7 264 .7 1-76 1 .6 0 .7 2-76 0 .5 -0 .5 -2 .1 -2 .7 3 -7 6 0 .3 -0 .4 -1 .5 -1 .5 -0 .3 4 -7 6 0 .3 -0 .4 -1 .2 -1 .1 -0 .2 -0 .2 1-77 0 .6 0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .1 0 .0 1.4 2 -7 7 1 .1 0.0 0 .5 0 .9 1 .0 2 .5 3 .0 4 .0 3 -77 1 .5 1.2 1 .0 1 .4 2 .2 2 .9 3 .9 4 .4 4 .1 4 -7 7 1 .5 1.3 1 .1 1.5 2 .2 2 .7 3 .4 3.5 2 .9 -1 .5 262.9 262 .7 2 62 .6 264.5 2 .9 267.6 270.3 271.5 1.0 1-70 1 .3 1*0 0 .0 1.1 1 .7 2 .0 2 .5 2 .3 T .5 0 .3 -1 .2 “ 2-70 1 .2 1 .0 0 .8 1.1 1 .6 1 .9 2 .2 2.1 1.4 0 .5 -0 .1 0 .9 3-70 1 .5 1 .4 1 .2 1.5 2 .0 2 .3 2 .6 2 .6 2 .1 1*6 1.6 3 .0 5.1 2 70 .7 271.3 274 .7 2 76 .0 4—70 1.5 1*4 1*3 1*5 2 .0 2 .2 2*5 2 .5 2 .1 1.7 1 .7 2 .6 3.5 1 .9 1-79 1.3 1*2 1 .0 1.2 1 .6 1 .0 2 .0 1.9 1.5 1.1 0 .9 1.5 1.7 0 .0 -1 .9 2-79 1 .0 0 .9 0 .7 0 .9 1 .2 1.3 1.5 1 .3 0 .9 0 .4 0 .2 0 .5 0 .4 -1 . 1 -2 .6 -3 .3 3-79 1.0 0 .9 0 .7 0 .9 1.2 “ W 3~ 1 .4 1.3 0 .9 0 .5 0 .3 0 .6 0.5 H ) .6 -1 .4 -1 .2 4 -7 9 1.3 1.2 1-00 1 .4 2-75 2 -7 9 3-TS 2 74 .7 272 .4 1.0 273.1 1.1 1.2 1.5 1.7 1.0 1.7 1.4 1.1 1.0 1.3 1.4 0 .7 0 .4 1.2 3 .5 6 .0 1.2 1 .4 1 .7 1.0 2 .0 1.9 1.7 1.4 ” U 4 1 .7 I* « 1 .3 1.2 1 .9 3 .7 5 .1 4— 7 S 1-76 2-7A 3-76 4 - 7 6 ___1 - 7 7 2-77 3 - 7 7 __ +-77__1=20— 277.1 4 .3 ~ 200.0 2-Zfl— 3=21— 4=2fi— 1=25— 2=22— 3=25— 4-79 I N I T I A L QUARTER P R EP A R ED 0V FED ERA L R E S E R V E RâNK OP S T . LO H I I JU N E 1 0 1 1900 17 -JH&H&AftLE_E£&2£MAL_Uft£flHE_Xli_£|jgft£ttI_QQLLAftS compoundedannual p u t e s 0 ? change INITIAL QUARTER TERM IN A L OOLLARS — BUA&TEfL AMAMI At 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 ftA T F < 4 -7 9 1*9 1 ,1 0 0 .3 4 -7 5 5*7 9 .6 1 -7 6 7 .0 9 .7 9*7 2 —7 6 6 .9 8 .6 8 .0 6*4 3 -7 6 7*1 8 .4 8 .0 7*2 8 .1 1 0 .3 1 ,1 2 5 .8 1 ,1 5 2 .2 1 ,1 7 0 .2 1 ,1 9 3 .1 4 -7 6 7 .6 8 .8 8*6 8*2 9 .2 1 -7 7 7 .9 8*9 8 .7 8 .5 9 .2 9 .8 9 .3 2 -7 7 8 .4 9 .3 9 .3 9 .2 9 .9 1 0 .5 1 0 .6 1 2 .0 3 -7 7 8 .8 9 .7 9 .7 9 .7 1 0 .3 1 0 .9 1 1 .1 1 2 .0 1 2 .1 4 -7 7 9 .1 9 .9 1 0 .0 10*0 1 0 .6 1 1 .1 1 1 .3 1 2 .0 1 2 .0 1 2 .0 I —7 f 9*2 1 0 .0 10 «0 1 0 .0 1 0 .6 u « o 1 1 .1 1 1 .6 1 1 .5 1 1 .1 1 0 .3 2 -7 « 9*5 10*2 10*3 1 0 .3 1 0 .8 1 1 .2 1 1 .4 1 1 .8 1 1 .8 1 1 .7 1 1 .5 3 —7 $ 9 .6 10*3 1 0 .4 1 0 .4 1 0 .9 1 1 .2 1 1 .4 1 1 .7 1 1 .7 1 1 .6 1 1 .5 1 2 .0 1 1 .4 4 -7 8 9 .9 1 0 .6 1 0 .6 1 0 .7 1 1 .2 1 1 .5 1 1 .7 1 2 .0 1 2 .0 1 2 .0 1 2 .0 1 2 .6 1 2 .5 1 3 .7 1 -7 9 1 0 .1 10*7 1 0 .8 1 0 .9 1 1 .3 1 1 .7 1 1 .8 1 2 .1 1 2 .2 1 2 .2 1 2 .2 1 2 .7 1 2 .7 1 3 .4 1 3 .0 10*0 10*5 1 0 .6 1 0 .7 1 1 .0 1 1 .3 1 1 .4 1 1 .6 1 1 ,6 1 1 .5 1 1 .5 1 1 .7 1 1 .4 1 1 .5 1 0 .3 2 -7 9 1 -7 9 1 ,2 2 2 .6 1 ,2 5 0 .1 1 ,2 8 6 .0 1 ,3 2 3 .2 1 ,3 6 1 .2 1 ,3 9 5 .0 1 2 .7 1 ,4 3 7 .3 1 ,4 7 6 .5 1 ,5 2 4 .8 1 ,5 7 2 .2 1 ,6 0 1 .7 7 .7 3 -7 9 10*0 1 0 .5 1 0 .6 1 0 .6 1 0 .9 1 1 .2 1 1 .3 1 1 .5 1 1 .4 1 1 .3 1 1 .2 1 1 .4 1 1 .1 1 1 .1 1 0 .2 8 .8 9 .9 4 -7 9 1 0 .0 1 0 .5 1 0 .6 1 0 .6 1 0 .9 1 1 .2 1 1 .2 1 1 .4 1 1 .4 1 1 .3 1 1 .2 1 1 .3 1 1 .1 1 1 .0 1 0 .4 9 .5 1 0 .4 1 0 .9 1 -8 0 10*2 1 0 .7 1 0 .7 1 0 .8 1 1 .1 1 1 .3 1 1 .4 1 1 .6 1 1 .6 1U S 1 1 .5 1 1 .6 1 1 .4 1 1 .5 1 1 .0 1 0 .5 1 1 .5 1 2 .2 4 -T 5 . 1 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1=M . 2-71 a-7 A -ÀT.Z1 . 1 -7 9 2-79. .Ir29 2 -1 5 . _ * r2 5 t T6. .isXt..-2r71.. 3-77. 4-77 1 ,6 4 0 .0 1 ,6 8 3 .1 1 3 .5 1 ,7 3 7 .4 4-79 INITIAL QUARTER ______________________________________________________ ___________________________________________________________ TERMINAL 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 —7 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 4 -7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3 -7 9 4 -7 9 8 6 3 .1 3 -7 5 -4 .9 4 -7 5 -0 .5 4 .0 1 -7 6 1 .4 4 .7 5 .3 2 -7 6 1 .6 3 .8 3 .7 3 -7 6 1 .8 3 3 3 .3 2 .3 2 »6 4 -7 6 2 .2 3 .7 3 .6 3 .1 3 .5 4 .5 2 .2 3 «4 3 .3 2 .8 3 .1 3 ^ 1 -7 7 D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E I N 1 9 7 2 D O L L A R S _________________________________________ ___________ ________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RAT E S OF CHANGE ____________________________________________________________________________ BILLIONS OP INITIAL QUARTER DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES ■ - 8 7 1 .7 8 8 3 .1 8 8 7 .7 2 .1 8 9 3 .4 9 0 3 .3 9 0 8 .0 2 .1 9 2 1 .5 2 -7 7 2 .7 3 .8 3 .8 3 .5 3 .8 4 .2 4 .1 6 .1 3 -7 7 3 .1 4 .2 4 .2 4 .0 4 .4 4 .8 4 .9 6 .3 6 .6 4 -7 7 3 .5 4 .4 4 .5 4 .4 4 .8 5 .2 5 .4 6 .5 6 .7 9 3 6 .3 6 .8 9 5 1 .8 ~ 9 5 6 .6 1 -7 8 3 .3 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4 .4 4 .7 4 .7 5 .4 5 .1 4 .4 2 .0 2 -7 8 3 .4 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4 .3 4 .6 4 .6 5 .1 4 .8 4 .3 3 .0 4 .0 3 -7 8 3 .5 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4 .3 4 .5 4 .5 4 .9 4 .7 4 .3 3 .4 4 .1 4 .2 4 -7 8 3 .7 4 .4 4 .4 4 .3 4 .5 4 .7 4 .8 5 .2 5 .0 4 .7 4 .2 4 .9 5 .3 6 .4 9 6 6 .1 9 7 6 .2 _ 9 9 1 .5 9 9 6 .6 1 -7 9 3 .6 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4 .3 4 .5 4 .5 4 .8 4 .6 4 .2 3 .7 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 2 .1 2 -7 9 3 .2 3 .8 3 .8 3 .7 3 .8 3 .9 3 .9 4 .1 3 .8 3 .4 2 .9 3 .0 2 .8 2 .3 0 .3 -1 .4 3 -7 9 3 .1 3 .6 3 .5 3 .4 3 .5 3 .6 3 .5 3 .7 3 .4 3 .0 2 .5 2 .5 2 .3 1 .8 0 .3 -0 .6 0 .2 4 -7 9 2 .9 3 .4 3 .4 3 .3 3 .3 3 .4 3 .3 3 .4 3 .2 2 .8 2 .3 2 .3 2 .1 1 .6 0 .5 -0 .1 0 .6 1 .1 1 -8 0 2 .8 3 .3 3 .2 3 .1 3 .2 3 .2 3 .1 3 .2 3 .0 2 .6 2 .2 2 .2 1 .9 1 .5 0 .6 0 .2 0 .7 1 .0 2 -7 5 3 rJS 4 -7 5 1 - 7 7 - 2 = 2 7 . —3 r 7 7 4 -7 7 4 -1 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 1 t 76 l _ 2 - 7 6 3 - 7 6 _ 4 t 2 6 .. 18 1=11- 2 -1 1 3 r ll_ 9 9 3 .0 9 9 3 .4 3 -7 S L 9 9 6 .2 0 .9 4 -7 9 998^ 5~ . CORPORATE P R O F IT S A FT ER T A X ES » C0NP0UN06D ANNUAL R A T ES OF CHANGE B I L L I O N S OF OO LLARS ANNUAL R A T E S I N I T I A L QUARTER t e r m in a l -QUARTER 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 3-75 113.6 4-75 54.5 1 1.6 4 -7 5 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 3 -7 6 4 -7 6 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 1 -7 « 2 -7 « 3 -7 « 4 -7 « 1 -7 9 57.9 35.8 64.9 41.8 23.7 30.1 2.7 3-76 33.7 1 9 .0 21.5 4.2 5.8 4— 76 27.7 15.2 16.1 3.2 3.5 1.3 1-77 27.8 17.3 18.4 9.0 1 1 .2 14.0 28.3 91.0 91.6 92.9 93.2 ~99.2 2-77 26.7 17.6 18.6 1 1 .0 13.2 15.8 23.8 19.4 3-77 25.2 17.2 18.0 11.5 13.4 15.4 20.5 16.8 4-77 22.8 15.4 15.9 10.2 11.5 12.7 15.8 l ï . T è . 3 103.7 14.2 2.6~ 106.7 20.0 13.3 13.5 8.3 9.1 9.7 11.4 7.6 23.7 17.7 18.4 14.1 15.6 17.1 19.9 18.3 18.0 19.3 28.7 73.2 ~3-78~ 22.4 16.8 1 7 .3 13*4 1 4 . 7 ~ 1 5 .8 18.0 16.4 15.8 16^2 2 W 2 36.4 T 227? 17.6 18.1 14.6 15^8 17.0 19.1 17.9 17.6 18.3 22.6 33.2 16.8 27.1 1-79 23.4 18.6 19.2 16.0 17.3 18.5 20.6 19.6 19.7 20.6 24.6 33.1 21.9 29.9 17.0 14^0 15.0 Î5.9 T7.4 16.3 15.9 16ä 18.6 23.8 13.8 16.0 10.9 -7.4~ 15.0 16.0 16.9^ 18.4 17.4 17.2 17.6 19.9 24.5 16.6 19.0 16.4 9.1 TrTeT ~ 107.9 1-78 Î6.7- M 107.2 2-78 2 1 .2 4 -7 9 78.1 1-76 2— 79~ 3 -7 9 80.3 2-76 w 2 -7 9 h D.9 122.4 124.6 7.4 132.3" 142.0 32.7 139.Î 3-79 1 Ü 6 “ 4-79 2 0 .0 16.0 16.3 13.6 14.4 15.1 16.4 15.3 14.9 15.0 16.7 20.0 12.9 14.1 11.0 4.6 11.2 -3.7 T-êÔ 2077 17.0 17.3 14.8 15.6 16.4 17.6 16.8 16.5 16.8 18.5 21.7 15.7 17.2 15.3 11.3 18.3 ì r . r ¿-75 3-75___4=25___1 = 1 6 __ 2 - 7 6 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 1-78 2 - 7 8 __ 3 - I fl 17.4 4 ^ 2 8 __ 1=2». 28.5 148.3 ~ 2=25. „3 = 2 3 146.9 » .e ~ Î5 8 . < r 4=29 * NATIONAL INCOME B A S IS PREPARED BY FEDERAL JU N E 18» 1980 SO U R C ES N A T IO N A L S o u r c e : U . S . D e p a rtm e n t A n a ly s is , 1 9 2 9 - 7 2 : T h e IN C O M E o f C o m m e rc e , In c o m e S t a t e s , D ATA PRO D UC T W a s h in g to n , N a t io n a l U n ite d AND O F D .C . a n d ACCO UN TS B u re a u o f E c o n o m ic 2 0 2 3 0 P ro d u c t 1 9 2 9 - 7 4 , D A TA A A c c o u n ts S u r v e y o f o f th e C u r r e n t B u s in e s s S u p p le m e n t. 1 97 3 S u r v e y o f C u r r e n t B u s in e s s , J u l y 1 9 7 6 . 1 9 7 4 S u r v e y o f C u r r e n t B u s in e s s , J u l y 1 9 7 7 . 1 97 5 S u r v e y o f C u r r e n t B u s in e s s , J u l y 1 9 7 8 . 1 9 7 6 - 7 8 S u r v e y o f C u r r e n t B u s in e s s , J u l y 1 9 7 9 . 1 9 4 7 - 7 9 S u r v e y o f C u r r e n t B u s in e s s , Ja n u a r y t a b le s o f s e le c t e d T h e o f th e S u r v e y D e p a rtm e n t D o c u m e n ts , U . S . o f i s a v a ila b le C o m m e rce G o v e rn m e n t o r fro m fro m P r in t in g 2 0 4 0 2 . 1 9 8 0 (s u m m a ry s e r ie s ) 19 m o st th e d i s t r i c t o f f i c e s S u p e r in te n d e n t O f f i c e , W a s h in g to n , o f D . C . « aü « QP S T . LOUIS INVENTORIES COMPARED W I T H MO N T H L Y SALES* MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 72 .6 8 68 . 64 64 .60 60 .56 56 .52 52 . 48 48 . 44 44 . 40 40 36 .36 1971 «RATIOS BASED ON S E A S O N A L L Y SHADED AREAS REPRESENT LATEST DATA PLOTTED: ADJUSTED PERIODS APRIL OF 1972 1973 1974 1975 DATA. BUSINESS 1976 SOURCE: 1977 1978 U . S . DEPARTMENT 1979 OF 1 C O MME R C E RECESSIONS. PRELIMINARY PREPARED 20 BY FED ERA L RESERV E BAN K OF ST L O U IS
@FedFRASER