Full text of National Economic Trends : June 1978
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nRTionnL Economic tredds PREPARED BY FEDERAL MONTH ENDING: A pril 30, 1978 RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS RELEASED: June 5, 1978 Economic a c tiv ity has rebounded sharply from the temporary l u l l of January and February, Following the rapid gains in March, measures o f production, income, and employment moved up vigorously in A pril and portend a strong second quarter* Industrial production surged ahead at an annual rate of 15 percent over the most recent two months, more than o ffs e t t in g the 2 percent rate of decline recorded from December to February. The rate of expansion of production in the f i r s t four months of 1978 exceeded the increase posted during a l l of 1977. Accompanying the upturn in production, growth of personal income rose at an 18 percent rate from February to A p r il, compared to a 4*4 percent rate of increase in the f i r s t two months of the year. With the strik in g coal miners returning to work, mining payrolls contributed appreciably to the la rg e advance. Sizeable gains in construction income, re fle c tin g improved weather conditions, also boosted personal income in A p ril. With ris in g incomes, consumers increased th eir purchases dramatically in the la s t two months. Retail sales were up at nearly a 20 percent rate from February to A p ril, compared to a 3.7 percent rate of decline in the previous two months. Automobile sales in March and A pril averaged 49 percent above levels of the f i r s t two months of the year. Housing starts were also exceptionally strong, averaging 36 percent above the rates recorded early in the year. Employment growth in the most recent two months was also quite rapid, with 800 thousand additional workers finding jobs. The unemployment rate f e l l to 6 percent in A p ril, the lowest rate in three and one-half years. The retention of employees in the face of production slowdowns early in 1978 contributed in large part to the 2.9 percent rate of decline in productivity in the f i r s t quarter. While this decrease was probably a temporary aberration, productivity gains in the future w i l l become increasingly constrained as economic capacity is very close to being f u l l y u t iliz e d . A more somber aspect of recent economic developments has been the very high rate of price increase. Wholesale prices were up at a 12 percent rate in the f i r s t four months of 1978, much fa ste r than the 6 percent increase over a l l of 1977. Part of this acceleration was associated with v o l a t i l e prices o f farm products and processed foods and feeds, which have soared at a 29 percent rate since December. However, in dustrial prices rose at an 8.1 percent ra te over the f i r s t four months of the year, more rapidly than the 7 percent r i s e registered over a l l of 1977. Consumer prices increased at a 9.6 percent rate from December to A p r il, compared to a 6.5 percent r i s e during 1977. TOTAL C IV IL IA N EMPLOYMENT CQMPQUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 5-77 THOUSANDS Of P E R S O N S MONTH IN IT IA L T fc ftM L ^ U . MONTH 6-77 7-77 e-77 9-77 1 0 - 7 7 11-77 12-77 1-76 2-76 3-76 87,044 10-76 0.9 __LL“ 26 3.3 5.8 12-76 3.1 4.2 2.6 1^7 ?t? 2.6 1-77 8812 5 5 _____ 88.446 88,653 89*042 ^ > -12 _ 3.5 3,6 4 .1 5.5 3-77 3-9 4.5 4.2 4.7 5.7 6.0 4-77 4.1 4.7 4.5 4.9 5.6 5.7 5-77 4.3 4.6 4.6 5.6 5.6 5.4 5.3 6-77 4.4 4-8 4.7 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.3 89.478 89.877 5.5 90.267 5.2 9 Q tfc48 90.518 2r77 -3^9_ 4 .2 4.0. 4 .2 4.4 4.2 _ 3 .6 3.2 2 .2 -0.6 a-77 3.6 4.0 3 . S' 4-* 0 4.2 4.0 3*6 3.1 2.4 1.0 2.7 9-77 3.8 4.0 3.9 4.1 4.0 3.6 3.3 2.6 2.0 3.4 4.0 10-77 3.6 4.0 4.1 4.0 3.7 3.4 3.0 2.5 3.6 4.0 4.0 1 1-77 4.3 4.6 4.5 4 .7 4.6 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.2 5.5 6 .4 7 .T 1 1 .5 12-77 4-* 4.6 4.5 4-7 4.9 4 .8 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 5.4 6 .1 6.8 6.3 5.3 1-78 4.3 4.6 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.7 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 5.1 5.6 6.0 6.7 4.4 2-78 4.2 4.4 4.3 4.4 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.6 4.9 5.1 5.4 3.5 2*6 1.6.. 3-78 4.1 4.3 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.0 3.9 4.5 4.7 4.8 5.0 3.5 2.9 2.5 3.4 4-78 4.3 4.5 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.6 4.5 4.4 4.3 4.2 4*6 5.0 5*2 5*4 4.2 3.9 4.0 5.3 9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 5-77 6-77 7-77 6-77 9-77 10-77 11-77 12-77 1-76 2-76 IN IT IA L PAYRO LL 90.793 9 1 »068 9 1 ,3 1 i 92 t214 92.609 3.6 9 2 .8 & L _ 93.003 93.266 7 .L - 93»901 3-78 MONTH EM P LO Y M EN T CCKPGUNOEO A ^ W A i R A T cS O f CfMNfrE K Q N T H _____________________ ______________ _____ _ - 1 B M I N AL_____________________________________________________________ IM U M — ____ _______I MftiSâÂS OF PERSONS MONTH 9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 5-77 6-77 7-77 8-77 9-77 11-77 12-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 79,835 _A 0 r7 * -0.9 11-76 1*8 4.5 12-16 2.4 4.1 60.127 80.370 3.7 60,574 1-77 2.6 3.6 3.4 3.1 2—77 3.0 3.9 3.6 3.6 4.5 3-77 3.6 4.6 4.6 4.9 5.6 4-77 3.7 4.5 4.5 4.7 5.3 5.7 4.3 5-77 3 .7 4.3 4.3 4*4 4*8 4*9 3.8 3.2 6-77 3.6 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.9 4.1 4.0 4.6 4.6 lOjtiTfiL 81.331 7.1 81.620 81.837 82.157 7-77 3.8 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.6 4.0 3.9 4.3 3.7 8-77 __3.5 4.0 3.9 4.0 4.1 3.4 3.2 3.2 2.3 1.0 9-12 3.6 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.1 3.6 3.4 3.4 3.0 2-6 4.3 10-77 _3.5 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.9 3.3 3.2 3.2 2.7 2.4 3.2 2.0 11-77 3.6 12-77 _3.fr 2—78 10-77 Ô2.40L 8 2 14 7 4 82.763 82.902 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.4 3.5 3.2 3-1 3.8 3.5 5.1 3.6 3.8 3. É 3-9 3-8 3-5 3-3 3.4 3.1 3.0 3.5 3.3 3.9 2.7 3.9 3.8 3.6 3.9 3.5 3.3 3.2 3.7 3.5 4.0 3.5 4.3 3.8 3.5 3.4 83.245 83.429 83.719 _3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 3.9 3.6 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.4 3.6 3.6 4.2 3.t 4.5 4.6 . 3-Ifi -i.fi 4.1 4.1 4. 1 4-2 4.2 3-9 3-9 4.0 3-9 3-9 4.3 4.3 4.6 4.7 5.4 6.0 7.2 4-78 4t* 4.4 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.5 4.3 4-3 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.9 5.0 5.5 5.6 6.3 7.0 8.2 9.1 9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 5-77 6-77 7-77 6-77 9-77 10-77 11-77 12-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 - IN IT IA L 84.04λ _ 84.537P 8 5 . 1 56P MONTH P- PRELIMINARY FftEPARtO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK O f S T . LOUIS NAY 5* 1978 2 EMPLOYMENT RAT I 0 SCALE MILLIONS 1970 OF RAT I 0 S CAL E PE R S ONS 1971 sea so n a lly 1972 1973 MILLIONS a d ju s t e d 1974 1975 1976 1977 OF P E R S ONS 1978 SOURCE* U.S.DEPARTMENT Of LABOR P ER C EN TAC ES ARC AMMVAL R A TE S OF CHANGE FOR PE R IO D S IN D IC A T E D . L A T E S T O ATA P L O T T E D t A P R IL P R E LIM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FED ER A L R ES ER VE BANK OF S T . LOO 18 UNEMPLOYMENT SEASONALLY ADJUSTED PE RCE NT RATE P E R CE NT 10. 0 9. 9.0 8. 8.0 7. 7.0 6. 6.0 5. 5.0 4. 4.0 3. 3.0 2. 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 SOURCEt U .S . DEPARTM ENT OF LABOR P ERCEN T OF C I V I L I A N LABOR FORCE L A T E S T DATA P L O T T E D . A P R IL PREPARED BY FED ER A L RES ER VE BANK OF S T . L O U IS 3 2.0 CONSUMER PR IC E INOEX, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ___CQMPQUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OP CHANQE 1967 * .JLOO. -73 3-76 JL21*1 2.8 11^.5 12-76 4 .2 3 .9 1-77 5 .7 5 .9 10.1 2-77 7 .0 7 .5 11.2 12.3 3-77 7 .1 7 .5 1 0.0 10.0 7 .7 174-2 175.6 17a 4 4-77 7 .6 8 .0 10.1 10.2 9 .1 10.6 5-77 7 .5 7 .8 9 .5 9 .3 8 .4 8 .7 6 .9 6-77 7 .3 7 .6 8 .9 8 .7 7 .8 7 .8 6 .5 6*1 7-77 7 .0 7 .2 8 .2 7 .9 7 .0 6 .9 5 .7 5.1 4,Q 179.9 __1j ML«l9_ 181 -8 182-4 8-77 6 .8 7 .0 7 .8 7 .4 6 .6 6 .4 5.4 5,0 4 ,4 9-77 6 ,6 6 .8 7 .4 7.1 6 »4 6*1 9*3 4 .9 4 .5 4 ,7 4 .7 10-77 6 .4 6 .5 7 .1 6 .7 6 .1 5.8 5.1 4 .7 4 ,4 4 ,5 4 ,3 4*0 11-77 6 .3 6 .4 6 .9 6 .6 6 .0 5,8 5.1 4 .8 4 ,5 4 ,7 4 ,7 4 .7 6 f? 6 .4 6 .8 4 .5 5 .9 5.7 5.1 4 ,9 4 ,7 4 ,8 4 .8 4 .9 5 .3 5 .3 1-78 6 .5 6 .6 7 .0 6.8 6 .3 6 .2 5 .7 5,5 5 ,4 5 .7 5 .9 6 ,2 6 .9 7 .7 10.1 2-78 6 .6 6 .7 7 .1 6 .9 6 .4 6 .3 5 .9 5,8 5 ,7 6 ,0 6 .2 6 ,5 7 .2 7 .8 9 .0 8 .0 3-78 6 .8 6 .9 7» 3 7a 6*7 6*6 6 ,3 6*2 6,2 6 .5 6 .7 7 .1 7 .7 8 .3 9 .3 9 .0 10.0 4-78 7 .0 7 .1 7 .5 7 .3 7 .0 6 .9 6 .6 6 ,6 6 ,6 6 ,9 7 ,2 7 ,6 8 .2 8*8 9 .6 9 .5 10.3 10.6 1^-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 5-77 6-77 7-77 8-77 9-77 10-77 11-77 12-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 _ JU r 7 7 . 9-76 16-76 U »C M -* FOR U R BA N WAftE EARN ERS AND C L E R I C A L 4 ,7 1 8 3 . ft 1 8 4 -4 5 .3 1 8 6 -0 lg a 7 1 9 0 .2 I N I T I A L MONTH W O R K ER S R E V I S E D A S O F JA N » 1978 PREPA RED BV FED ERA L MAY 3 1 * 1978 ____ W H O LESA LE P R IC E S - A L L ____________________ C Q MPQUNPE P RESERVE BANK OF S T . 1967 IN I T IA L MONTH MONTH 9-76 10-74 11-76 12-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 5-77 L O U IS C OMMOD I T I E S , S E A S O N A L L Y A D JU S T E D ANN U A L M T C S Q f CH i N S * _________________ 6-77 7-77 8-77 9-77 10-77 11-77 12-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 __135 » 2 10-76 4 .0 11-76 5 .0 6 .0 12-76 6 .0 7 .0 _ JL S 6 .1 _ 187.3 8 .0 1-77 6*0 6*6 7*0 5*9 2-77 7 .6 8 .5 9*3 10.0 14*2 ^ JL M 3-77 8-5 9 .4 1 0 .3 11.1 13-8 5-77 8 .7 9 .3 9 .9 6-77 7 .0 7 .4 7 .6 7 .5 7 .8 7-77 6 .3 6 *6 6 .7 6 .5 8-77 5 .9 6 .1 6 .1 5.8 _190.3 192.3 13.4 194.3 6 .3 4 .0 6 .6 5 .1 5.8 4 .5 194.2 -0 .3 -5 .4 3*2 0*0 - 2 ,4 0*6 Z .0 0 .3 - 1 .2 0 .9 1.2 194^? 194.5 195.2 9-77 5 .7 5 .9 5 .9 5 .7 5 .6 4 .5 1.1 0 .2 2 .1 2 .8 4 .4 10-77 5 .8 5 .9 5 .9 5 .7 5 .7 4 .7 2 .0 1 .4 3*1 4 ,0 5 .4 6 .3 11-77 6 .0 6 .2 6 .2 6 .0 6 .0 5 .1 2 .9 2 .6 4 .3 5.2 6 .5 7 .4 8 .9 12-77 5-9 6 .1 6 .1 5 .9 5*9 5 .1 4. 3 3.2 2 .9 4 .4 5 .1 6.1 6 .7 6 .9 5 .0 1-78 6 .2 6 ,4 6*4 6 .3 6 .3 5*6 4*9 4 ,0 3 .9 5.3 6.1 7 .0 7 .7 8 .2 7 .8 2-78 6 .6 6*8 6*8 6*7 6 .8 6 ,2 5*6 4*8 4 .8 6*2 7 .0 8 .0 8 .7 9*3 9 .4 11*7 12.7 3-78 6 .9 7 .1 7 .2 7 .1 7 .2 6 .7 6 .1 5.5 5*6 6 .9 7 .7 6 .6 9 .3 9 .9 10*2 1 2 .0 12.6 12.5 4-78 7 .2 7 ,4 7 .5 7 ,5 7 .6 7,1 6*7 6,1 6*2 7 .5 8 .2 9 ,2 9 ,9 10.5 10.8 12*3 12.8 12.8 13,1 9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 5-77 6-77 7-77 8-77 9-77 10-77 11-77 12-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 IN IT IA L 196.2 R 197.6 198.4 10*8 200 a 202.1 204.1 206.2 MONTH R-RHVTSHD 4 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of S T . LOUIS MAY 4« 1978 RAT IO PR I CBS SCALE I 96 7-1 00 SEASONALLY RAT I 0 SCALE I9 6 7 - 1 0 0 ADJ USTED I l f P I - U FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS (NEW S E R I E S BEGINNING JANUARY 197$) UP P l - w FOR URBAN WAGE EARNERS AND CLERICAL WORKERS ( R E V I S E D S E R I E S BEG INNINC JANUARY NOTE. C P I . SEASONALLY ADJUSTED. (OLD S E R I E S ) TERMINATED BEG INNING JANUARY 1976 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS LATEST DATA PLOTTED. INDICATED. APRI L PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE RATIO WHOLESALE P R I C E S SCALE PERCENT ACES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS LATEST DATA PLOTTED. BANK OF ST. L OUIS RATIO SCALE IWDICATED. APRI L PREPARED BY F E DE R AL RE SE RV E BANK OF S T . 5 LOUIS WHOLESALE: PRICES - INDUSTRIAL COMMODITIES* SEASONALLY C f i N £ Q y N D £ 0 ^INNUAJ. R A T E S JPF C H A N G E TERMINAL MONTH INITIAL 9-76 __L O - 7 6 8.8 11-76 8.1 10-76 2-77 3-77 4-77 5-77 1967 * MONTH 6-77 7-77 8-77 9-77 10-77 11-77 12-77 186.0 187.6 3.3 188.7 6*6 5.9 5.2 2*3 2-77 7*4 7.1 2*0 9.0 10.7 3-77 7.6 7.4 7.4 8.8 9.6 4-77 7.8 7.7 7.7 8.9 9*4 8.8 9.1 5-77 7.6 7.5 7.5 8.4 8.7 8.0 7.8 6.4 6-77 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.6 _ 7.7 6.9 6.4 5.1 3.8 7-77 7.3 7.1 7*1 7.6 7.7 7.1 6.7 5.9 5.7 7.7 190,3 111*6 8.5 194 *0 194.6 19 5 ^ 8-77 7.2 7.0 7.0 7.4 7.5 6.9 6.6 6.0 5.9 7*0^ 6*3 9-77 7.1 6.9 6.9 7.3 7.3 6.9 6.6 6.1 6.0 6.7 6.3 6.3 7.0 6.8 6.8 7.1 7.1 6.7 6.4 6.0 5.9 6.5 6.1 5.9 5.6 il-77 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.8 6.8 6.4 6.1 5.7 5.5 5.9 5.5 5.2 4.6 3.7 12-77 6.7 6.6 6.5 6.8 6.7 6.3 6.1 5.7 5.6 5.9 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.9 6.2 6 . 8 ___ 6 * 7 6.7 6.9 6.9 6.6 6.4 6.1 6.0 6.3 6.1 6.1 6.0 6.2 7.4 „JJ£2*£_ 198.7 199,3 200.3 R 2 0 1 .7 6.8 6 * 8 ___7 . 0 7.0 6.6 6.3 6.5 6.6 6.8 7.8 6.8 6.7 7.0 7.0 6.7 6.5 6.3 6.3 6.6 6.4 6.4 6.5 6.6 7.4 7.8 7.4 4-76 7*0 6.9 6*9 7.1 7*1 6.9 6.7 6*5 6*5 6*8 6.7 6.8 6.9 8*1 6.0 11-76 12-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 5-77 6-77 7-77 8-77 9-77 11-77 12-77 1-78 INITIAL 9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76 -4.5 7 -7 7 . .9-77 IQ - 7 7 — 11-77 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 5-77 6-77 ¿05*6 3 — 78 FEED S* ____ S E A S . A D J. 1967 * 100 7-77 6-77 9-77 10-77 il- 7 7 12-22___1^25_ ¿ - 7 8 3- 7 $ 18Q.2 180.5 2.0 1 4 .3 ___ 1 9 .0 J tT L 2-78 -10.7 ,1 2 .-2 6 _____ 4* 2___1 3 . 3 ,6 - 7 2 ^ 9 s2 J iO U A U fflffiL . MONTH 11-76 10-77 ,203*1 6.1 MONTH WHOLESALE P R IC E S - fA R M PRODUCTS AND P RO C ESSED FOODS A W __________________________ CQWPQUNPEP AHWUAl R A T ES QF CHAM£| 10-7 6 f- 6.9 6.9 4? **" 1 O 2-78 >■ 4 CO 8.7 -J 6.6 196.6 3-78 9-76 ,2-78 100 3-75 187.1 1-77 1-78 1-78 7.3 5.3 12-76 11-76 1-77 12-76 ADJUSTED 2 5 . 9 ___________________________________________ _2 *5_ _ft*7____4 .4 3*0____4 .6 ____4 ,9 ____2*2____2 .3 1 . 4 ____2.7 ____2*2____0 *2 - Q .B _____1 * 9 _____1 , 9 2 *5 - 0 .5 - 3 .1 -16*4 -30*2 -2 .2 ___- 1 .9 -19.2 -2 7 .4 -24*4 ~0*1__ - 4 .1 - 9 .8 -17*9 -22*9 r l 9 . 0 - 0 .8 - 9 ,1 - 4 .3 0 .5 ____ 0*3 ___- 2 . 7 - 1 5 .5 - 1 9 .0 - £ * 7 - 1 1 * 2 - 1 3 .9 -13 .3 - 1 4 . B ___ - 9 >6___ -5 .7 - * * 3 - 3 .6 ^ . 4 ____ 4 . 6 ____ ________ 3 * 0 _iiL 0 .7 - 2 .5 -6 ,5 __ -7.5__ -2*1____4 .4 ^ . 4 ____ 4 ^ 5 ____ 4 * £ ____ 3 « Q ^3*JL_ 1.0 -1.9 -5 .3 __ -fr*Q__ -1 .3 1-78 4.0 2-78 5.6 6.7 3-Ifl ... 7 . 2 8.4 4-70_____ 6 .2 9 .4 4.0 5.7 6.0 .7.8 fi.2 6 .0 ____ 5*0____3*0____3*3 8 .9 9*4 8*2 6*7 9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 7*4 9 .9 1.6 184*2 169.1 11.1___20*6__ 32*6 4 .2 ____9*1___14.5___17.0 3 .2 189*6 2 .1 __ - 0 .4 __ -3.3__ -3 .7 3.9 _ 2 2 .6 ___2 2 .0 - 6 * 6 ____ * * £ ___1 0 . 0 1 .4 ____ 2 .5 _____________________________ ___________________________ _4 *4 ____2 .3 1 9 1 *7 196.4 -0.1__ “ 0.1 1*9 12.8___17.1 £ U 4 _2 4 *0 2 1 .9 2 B .S 202*0 4 .9 ____ 5*3____9*1___14.4___18*4 4-77 5-77 6-77 7-77 8-77 9-77 10-77 11-77 12-77 1-78 3 3*9 2 4 *0 2-78 3-78 206.2 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE B A i* OF S T . LOUIS NAY 4* 1978 6 P INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RATIO SCALE RATIO SCALE SEA SO N A LLY 1967-100 PERCEN TAG ES ARE LATEST PLO TTED i DATA ANNUAL RATES A P R IL OF CHANGE FOR 196 7-100 A D JU S T E D P E R IO D S IN D IC A T E D . P R E LIM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of ST. LOUIS IN D U S T R I A L TERMINAL PR O O U C T IO N IN IT IA L MONTH MONTH 9 - 7 6 1 0 -7 » i l - 7 6 1 0 -7 6 1 2 -7 6 1 -T 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 5 -7 7 6 -7 7 7 -J7 A -7 7 9 -7 7 1 0 —7 7 1 1 -7 7 1 2 -7 7 __ 1=2#__ 2rr7£ 3L- 1 A -3 .6 1 3 0 .2 1 2 .7 1 1 -7 6 ------ 1 2 -7 6 7 .6 1 3 .6 1 4 .6 1 -7 7 4#0 6 .6 3 .7 -6 . 1 2 -7 7 4 .8 7*1 5 .3 0 .9 1 1 8 .5 3 -7 7 7 .3 9*7 e .9 7 .1 1 4 .4 20*6 4 -7 7 7 .3 9 .3 8 .6 7 .2 1 2 .0 1 3 .9 7 .3 5 -7 7 7 .4 9 .1 e .5 7 .4 ll. O 1 1 .9 7 .« 8 .2 6 -7 7 7*4 • .9 • .4 7 .3 1 0 .3 1 0 .7 7 .6 7 .7 7 .2 7 -7 7 7 .5 8 .B • .3 7 .5 9 .9 1 0 .2 7 .7 7 .9 7 .7 f ^7 n 1 V 7 .â 6 .1 8 -7 7 6 .3 7 *3 6 .7 5 .1 7 .6 7 .5 5 .0 4*5 3 .3 1 .3 - 5 .1 * -7 7 6 .0 7 .0 6 .4 5 .6 7 .1 6 .9 4 .8 4 .3 3 .3 2 .0 -0 .9 3 .5 1 0 -7 7 5 .9 6 .7 6 .2 5 .3 6 .7 6 .5 4*6 4 .2 3 .4 2 .4 0 .6 3 .5 11—77 5 .7 5^? 5 .2 .4 6 .2 4*5 4 .1 3 .4 2 .6 1 .3 3 .5 1 2 -7 7 5 .5 5 .7 5 .0 6 .1 5 .9 4 .4 4 .0 3 .4 2 .8 1 .7 1 .5 4t 7« 4 .7 5f ? <b>Q 4 .9 4 .6 3 .1 2 .7 2 .0 1 .2 0 .1 1 .2 0 .7 - 0 .1 -2 .1 -7 .5 2 —7B 4 .6 5 .1 4*Z 4*f 4 .5 3 .1 2 .7 2 .1 1 .5 0 .6 1 .6 1 .2 Û .6 -0 .1 -2 .1 5*6 5 .4 4 .2 3 .9 3 .5 3 .1 2 .5 1 .6 1 .6 » .7 1 .7 l. A 5 .7 6 .2 5 .1 5 .3 6 .0 4 .9 4 .7 4 .4 4 .1 3 .7 4 .8 5 .0 5 .3 5 .6 6 .1 1 1 .1 1 5 .1 1 1 .5 9 —7 6 10-76 11-76 12-76 2-77 3 -7 7 4-77 5-77 6 -7 7 7 -7 7 9-1 7 1 1 -7 7 1 2 -7 7 1 -7 8 2 -7 8 3 -7 8 6 .2 4*® ? - îl_ 4 -7 « 1-77 IN IT IA L 1 1A .5 3 .5 3 .5 1 M .Î 1 .« 1V i. 7 9 - 7 7 1 0 -7 7 1 1 * .A 1 .5 141 - flP 14*7 1 4 2 . 5P W M TH P - PR ELIM IN ARY 7 PR EPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS NAY I 6 . 1*7B PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS MONTHLY OF DOLLARS TOTALS SEASONALLY I N C OME AT ANNUAL RATIO RATES TRILLIONS ADJUSTED OF SCALE DOLLARS 0.9 0. 0.8 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977 1978 SOURCE. U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED. APRIL PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS COMPOUNPED TERMINAL MONÎH PERSONAL INCOME ANNUAL RATES OF ________________________________________________________________I N IT IA L 9-76 10-76 11.1 11-76 13.7 10-76 11-76 12-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 5-77 CHANGE _________________ B I L L I O N S OF MONTH 6-77 7-77 8-77 9-77 10-77 11-77 12-77 1-78 2-?a. ANNUAL .... 2_-2£ RATES 1 .414,2 1.432.1 16.3 - 12-76 14.5 16.3 16. 3 1-77 11.7 11.8 9.7 3.4 1 .450.2 2-77 13.4 13.9 13.1 11.6 20.4 3-77 14.4 15.0 14.7 14.2 20.0 19.5 4-77 13.6 14.0 13.6 12.9 16.3 14.2 5-77 12.6 12.8 12.3 11.5 13.6 11.4 7.5 5.9 6-77 11.6 11.9 11.3 10.5 1 1 .9 9.9 6.9 5.8 7-77 11.9 12.0 11.4 10.7 1 2 .0 10.4 8.2 7.9 9.0 12.4 8-77 11.5 11.5 1 1.0 10.4 1 1.4 10^0 8.2 7.9 8.6 10.1 7.9 9-77 11.4 11.4 10.9 10.3 11.2 10.0 8.5 8.3 9.0 10.1 8.9 10.0 10-77 11.9 12.0 11.6 11.2 1 2 .1 11.1 9.9 10.0 10.9 12.2 12.2 14.3 18.9 11-77 12.1 12.2 11.9 11.5 12.3 11.5 10.5 10.7 11.5 12.7 12,8 14.5 16.8 14.8 12-77 12.4 12.5 12.2 11.9 12.7 12.0 11.1 11.4 12.2 13,3 13.5 15.0 16.7 15.6 16.4 1-7Ö 11.7 11.8 1 1.5 11.1 11 .8 11.0 10.2 10.3 10.9 11.6 11.5 12.2 12.8 10.8 8.9 1.9 2-78 11.5 11.5 11.2 10.8 1 1 .4 10.7 9.9 10.0 10.4 n.o 10.8 11.3 11.6 9,9 8.3 4.4 7.1 3-76 11.8 11.8 11.6 1 1.2 11.8 11.2 10.5 10.6 H.l 11.8 11.7 12.2 12.6 11.4 10.6 a.7 12.2 17.7 4-78 12.1 12.2 11.9 11.7 12.2 11.7 11.1 11.3 11.8 12.4 12.4 13.0 13,4 12,5 12.1 11.0 14.2 18,0 18,2 9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76 1— 77 2^ 3-77 4-77 5-77 6-77 7-77 8-77 9-77 10-77 11-77 12-77 1-78 2-78 3-78 __L jA T T a Ü L.4r?.i 9.2 1.517.3 5,7 1,524.3 INITIAL 1.549.0 1.561*3 1>étQ2 3 1 ,622.7 1.625.2 1,634.5 1 ,656.8 1 . 6 0 0 , IP MONTH P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS MAY 17, 1978 8 RETAIL RATIO SALE RATIO SCALE BILLIONS OF 1970 SEASONALLY DOLLARS 1971 1972 1973 ADJUSTED 1974 U LL I ONS 1975 1976 SO U RC E» U .S . PERC EN T A G ES ARE LATEST PLO T TED t DATA ANNUAL RATES M ARCH, OF CHANCE A P R IL FOR ADVAM CE P E R IO O S 19 77 D EP A R T M EN T SCALE DOLLARS 1978 OF COMM ERCE IN D IC A T E D . E S T IM A T E PREPA RED Jt E T A IL COWfrQUMOEP AN N UAL T E R N INAL OF _____________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L SA LES M TE$ BY FED ERAL R ESERVE BA N K OF ST. L O U IS O f C H * ttE NQNTH NONTH DOLLARS 9-76 . 10-76 11-76 12-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 5-77 4-77 7-77 8-77 9-77 10—76 1 9 .6 11-76 1 7 .5 1 5 .4 U - ?6 2 7 ,3 31*3 4 9 .3 1 -7 7 1 3 .7 11*8 10*0 -18*9 2-77 1 8 .5 18*3 19*3 6 *6 40*1 3-77 18*1 17*0 18*4 9 .5 27*3 1 5 .7 4-77 1 5 .8 15*2 15*2 7 *9 18*7 9 .2 3*2 5-77 1 3 .3 12*4 11*9 5 *7 1 2 .9 5 .1 0 .1 - 2 .0 6-77 U *3 10*3 9 *6 4 *1 9 *4 2 .8 -1*1 - 3 .2 7-77 1 1 .8 1 0 ,9 10*4 5 .7 1 0 .5 5 *4 2 *9 2 .9 5 *4 14*2 0-77 11*6 10*8 10*3 6*2 10*4 6 *1 4 *3 4 .4 7*2 13*1 1 0 .0 9 r7 ? 10*6 9 .8 9 .2 5 .5 9 .0 5 *2 1 .4 3 .6 5 .1 0*5 4 .0 - 0 .1 10-77 12*7 12*2 11*9 8*7 12 *3 9 .3 0 *4 9 .3 1 1 .9 1 4 .1 1 4 .1 1 9 .3 4 2 .4 10-77 11-77 12-77 1-78 2-70 3 —71 _ M »171_ 5 6 .4 8 5 57*291 5 7 .9 9 0 50 * 142 5 0 .0 0 3 -3 *4 .0 2 5 57 5 0 .5 5 2 5 9 .0 2 0 14-01* 4 0 .7 7 0 U-77 Ufi 12*6 12*3 9*5 1 2 .8 10*1 9 .4 1 0 .4 1 2 .7 1 4 .3 1 4 .4 1 0 .6 2 9 .2 1 7 .2 12 r7 7 1 2*0 12*4 12*1 9 *5 12*5 1 0 .1 9 .5 1 0 .3 1 2 .3 1 5 .2 1 9 .0 1 4 .2 2 2 .3 1 3 .1 9 .5 4 .9 3 .9 4 .0 4 .9 4 .2 4«6 3 .5 4 .4 - 5 .0 - 1 5 .4 - 1 4 .9 1 1 .1 4 .4 0 .5 - 1 .7 & l t 50A 9 .0 8*3 7 *9 5*2 7*5 2-70 1 0 .7 10*2 9 *9 7 *5 9 .8 7 .4 4 .9 7 .3 0 .5 1 0 .1 9 .3 9 .1 3-70 10*9 10*4 10*1 7 *9 10*1 8 .1 7 .5 7 .9 9 .0 1 0 .5 9 .9 9 .0 1 1 .6 6 .1 3 .7 1 .0 2 7 .4 1 4 .0 4-78 1 1 .7 11*2 11*0 9 .0 11*1 9 *3 0 *0 9 .3 1 0 .« 1 2 .0 1 1 .4 1 1 .0 1 3 .4 9 .4 7 .9 7 .5 2 7 .0 1 9 .9 2 4 .2 9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 5-77 6-77 7-77 0-77 9-77 10-77 11-77 12-77 1- 7 0 2-70 3-70 _ lr 7 8 . IN IT IA L 59 .A 75 At T<U1 4 2 .3 6 3 .5 5 9 F NONTH P - P * £LIH IN AA Y E - ESTIHATEO P * € P A * fO t V F€OC*AL RE S EHVE BANK NAY 1 2 . 1978 9 Of S T . LO UIS ¥* PRIVATE bU SIN ESS SECTOR COHPQUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL 2-73 3-73 4-73 1-74 2-74 3-7* 4-74 O U TPU T PER 1-7? 2-75 IN IT IA L 3-73 3—73 4-73 1-74 2-74 3-74 4-74 4-75 1 - 76 2-76 3-76 HOUR O F A L L P E R S O N S * P R IV A T E B U S I N E S S COMPOUNDED AN N UAL R A T E S O F CH AN CE TERMINAL Q U A RTER ______________ 2 - 73 QUARTER 3-75 1 - 75 2-75 3-75 1=75" ~2 -7 5 5=75 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 SEC TO R Q UARTER 1967 4-75 1 - 76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 4=75 I=7S 2-76 5^73 4^76 i- 7 7 2-77 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 « 100 - 2 .I 2-73— 3—73— 4=73— 1=74— 7=74— 3-74— 4=74 — initial ooAtTf a -------------------------------------------------- R » R E V IS E D Pr e p a r e d b y MAY 2 6 » 1 97 8 10 R e s e r v e b a m c o T^ s t . l o u i s ______________________________________________ feo er al PRODUCTIVITY, COMPENSATION, AND LABOR COSTS RAT I O S CAL E RATI O 1967-100 SEASONALLY 1970 1971 1972 1973 AD J US T E D 1974 SCALE 1967-100 1975 1976 1977 1978 soyftce« o.s. departucnt of labor PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED. 1ST OUARTER PREPARED 0Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS U N IT LABOH C O S T S * P R IV A T E B U S IN E S S S E C T O * COMPOUNDED ANNUAL R A T E S OF CHANCE________ T E R M IN A L Q UARTER IN IT IA L 2-73 3-73 4-73 1 - 74 2-74 3-74 4-74 1-75 2-75 Q UARTER 3-75 4-75 1967 « 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 100 4-77 3“ 73 «.« 4-73 6 .5 1—74 10*4 n 2-74 1 1 .7 1 2 .7 1 5 .0 1 5 .0 3—74 1 2 .5 1 3 .4 1 5 .1 1 5 .7 4-74 1 2 .6 1 3 .4 1 4 .7 1 4 .9 1 4 .5 1 3 .5 1-75 1 2 .5 1 3 .1 1 4 .1 1 4 .1 1 3 .6 1 2 .6 2- 7 5 1 0 .4 1 0 .6 11.0 1 0 .4 9 .1 7 .1 3-75 0 .8 8 .8 8 .9 8 .0 6 .5 4 .4 1 .5 - 3 .2 4-75 « .9 9 .0 9 .0 8 .3 7 .1 5 .5 3 .6 1 .1 3 .3 1-76 «• 6 8 .6 8 .6 7 .9 6 .9 5 .5 3 .9 2 .1 3 .9 7 .7 5 .3 2-76 8 .3 8 .2 8 .2 7 .6 6 .6 5 .4 4 .1 2 .7 4 .2 6 .6 5 .1 4 .9 3-76 8 .1 8 .0 8 .0 7 .4 6 .5 5 .4 4 .3 3 .1 4 .5 6 .5 5 .3 5 .3 5 .6 4-76 0 .1 8 .1 0 .1 7 .5 6 .7 5 .« 4 .9 3 .9 5 .2 6 .9 6 .1 6 .4 7 .2 « .« ^ \ 1 7 3 .0 1-77 7 .9 7 .9 7 .8 7 .3 6 *6 5 .7 4 .9 4 .1 5 .2 6 .6 5 .9 6 .* 6 ,5 7 .0 5 .2 1 7 5 .2 1 1 4 *4 8 .3 . J 1 3 7 ,1 7*> 1 M .7 v U .1 % 1 4 7 ,0 1 5 2 ,4 1 5 7 .3 lÙ?\_ - 3 . 2 % 1 1 6 1 ,7 4 .0 1 6 0 .4 1 5 9 .1 f 1 0 .2 1 6 3 .0 1 6 5 .1 1 6 7 .1 ^6,2% 1 6 9 .4 2-77 7 .9 7 .8 7 .8 7 .3 6 .7 5 .9 5 .2 4 .5 5 .5 6 .6 6 .2 6 .4 6 .6 7 .1 6 .3 7 .5 3-77 7 .6 7 .5 7 .5 7 .0 6 .4 5 .6 5 .0 4 .3 5 .2 6 .3 5 .7 5 .0 6 .0 6 ,1 5 .2 5 .2 4-77 7 .5 7 .4 7 .4 6 .9 6 .3 5 .6 5 .0 4 .4 5 .2 6 .2 5 .7 5 .0 5 .9 6 ,0 5 .3 5 .3 4 .2 5 .5 1-7« 6 .0 8 .0 7 .9 7 .6 7 .0 6 .5 5 .9 5 .5 6 .3 7 .3 7 .0 7 .2 7 .5 7 .« 7 .7 « .3 « .5 1 1 .4 1 7 .« 2-73 3-73 4-73 1- 7 4 2-74 3-74 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4 —75 \-n 2 - t6 i —7 6 4-76 1 - 77 2-77 3 - 77 4-77 1 7 8 .4 1 7 9 ,7 T 162-1 1 8 9 .7 T f c t T l A L (kiAfcttir 11 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESËRVÊTBA>* OF T f T T o U IS MAY 26* 197« GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS ____m i± L RATES OF CHANGE JNUlAi. t e r m in a l qu a r t e r QUARTER 2-73 3~73 W 3 ___1~2* — Z r Jà __ 3-24— 4 r?4 — 1^23__ ¿-25— 3 r JP __ 4-73 B IL L IO N S OF ___ DOLLARS___ ANNUAL RATES 1-76__ 2=26___3-76__ 4-76___1=Z2___2L-JTZ__ 3-77__ 4-77 3^73 5-74 9,1 8.7 8.5 7,4 _A-74 8*3 8*1 TsJL___ ft*2_ A-75 7*1 8.9 Ì_ 1 6.1 6 ,7 2-75 7 ,6 4-75 9.1 7t.y .. _2.*V . ...7.t£. 8,7 9.3 9.0 9.3 9.4 9.5 9.9 1-76 .2=26 . 3.2%-- 9.2 *f5 ... _**5„„ * * ? 9.8 7,*r *»5_ *t* -13.6%7*T tvt/ AV*V _ .IT**— *.4 10*2 P f i 14*4_ ?,5 1.0*1 10,8 i .dm, 1.600..7 1.651..? 13*6 14*0 11*3 ì s ^ y ^ 19.1 l£±l 1J.I? 13*flL _ii.0 11.7 IOì ì 12*2 10*7 9 .4 8 . 6 \ 1.691..9 3-76 9 .4 9 .4 9 .2 9 .7 9 ,8 *** 10** 1 2 .2 4-76 9 .2 9 .2 9 .0 * .5 9 ,5 9 .5 9 ,9 11*4 11*2 * .6 9 *7 • *5 7 *6 6 .7 1-77 9 .5 9 .5 9 ,3 9 ,8 9 .8 9 .9 10.3 11*6 1 1 .5 1 0 .2 1 0 .4 9 .7 9 .5 9 .9 2-77 9 .8 9 .8 9 .6 10. 1 0 .1 10*2 1 0 ,6 1 1 .9 11*8 10*7 1 0 .9 1 0 .5 1 0 .5 1 1 .2 1 3 .5 1 3 .7 3-77 9 .8 9 .8 9 .7 1 0 .1 1 0 .1 1 0 ,2 1 0 ,6 11*7 11*6 10*6 1 0 .8 1 0 .4 1 0 .5 1 0 .9 1 2 .4 1 1 .* 1 0 ^ 2 "\ 4-77 9 .8 * .8 9 .7 10* 1 10.1 10.2 1 0 .5 1 1 .5 11*4 1 0 .6 1 0 .7 1 0 .4 1 0 .4 1 0 .7 1 1 .8 1 1 .3 1 0 .1 1-78 9 .6 9 .6 9 .5 * .8 9 .9 1 0 .0 10*2 1 1 *1 1 1 ,0 10*2 10*2 * .9 *•8 1 0 .0 1 0 .7 2-73 3-73 4-73 1-74 2-74 3-74 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1- 7 6 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 1 1 0 .4 -9.9% — ------------ ,3> 1 .flIQ..ft 1 ,B69..9 1 , 9 1 5 . »9 9 ^ 3-77 \ _ 1 ,9 6 1 . .fì 4-77 I N I T IA L QUARTER GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CONSTANT 1*72 DOLLARS B IL L IO N S OF TERMINAL QUARTER I N I T I A L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 2 r2 3 _ * r2 2 *r2-3 j- 2 * 2 ~?4 3=Z4- . A t I 4__ 1 -7 5 2—7 ? 3—75 4 - 7 5 __ 1 -7 6 2 -7 6 __ 3 r7 6 _ 4 - 76__ 1=11__ 2 -2 1 __ 3 -7 7 4 ,-77 1*2 .Irli- -J L Z S l . ^ 2 4 ____ h ? * 5 _ ~ 1 * 3 3-74 - 0 ,9 - |,6 ____ r l * 7 -Z** r 2 t* -l«ft ^2*2 -7.6%“ ~4 * Q -5« 5 1 -7 5 ___ - ¿ , 9 —3 , 6 —4 , 7 -4 ,9 -? ,f -2 * _ 4 _ -* * £ ?-75 -A*f -¿*£ -JU * -2*7 -3*0 -3*1 Ir l? . - Q i4 -Q ,4 - l« jp - Qt ? - Q*2 ____ ft*3____2 * i ____ 9m? -£*2 ~0,5 -0.0___ 0*3 0*9 2*5___ ***___ !* !_ lrl6_ _£*2___ £«6 0» 5 1*5 2*1 3*7 2 * 4 ____ 1 * 1 ____ l a * .3-7» J U i ---- LaJS!____ k x l _____i » ? _ It* 2*5 4 *0 6** 7 *Q _____5 ^ l _ 3-7^ 1^3___ _______________L t l ___ 2 a 2*7 3** 6 ,4 4*4___ 5*2_ 4t ?-6 l.* 3 1*£_ -1**___ -7 . 4 % - II.* 1,220.7 Itft 1 » 2 5 6 ,0 -1*1-- L*2___1*2___2utfi__ 2*3___ 3*4___ì l i ___5 J___4*1. 1-77 - 1 * 2 ---- L t l ---- L * 2 ____ 2 ^ 1 _____2 * 3 * .-77 -**®-- ^ _________2*1___2*£___i i i __ A*2________ 5*1___i*JL_ 3 « fl____ 4 * i i ____ 5 . * 5 . 8 _____ ---- Z s 2 ---- 2 * 2 ____ 2 * 4 ____ Ltfi____ 3L*3____ 4 * 1 ____ 5 * 4 ____ W — 1 -7 8 * * * ---- -------- 2 * 2 ---- l*ft____ 1 * 5 ____ ±*1____ ^ 2.1 ___ ¿*5___ 2*8 3 -7 3 4 -7 3 1 -7 4 2 -7 4 ____ 5 * X _ 1 »SfrQ.2 ____ 5 * à ____ 4bJL_ 3*2 3** 3*1 5*0 4*4 3 -7 4 4 -7 4 1 -7 5 2 -7 5 3 -7 5 IN IT IA L 4 -7 5 1 -7 4 2 -7 6 3 -7 4 4 -7 4 1 -7 7 2 -7 7 3 -7 7 4 -7 7 QUARTER PREPAREO I V FEDERAL RESERVE BA#* OF S T . LO UIS MAY l f l . 1*7» 12 . DEMAND AND P R O D U C T I O N R A T 10 S C A L E T R IL L I O N S OF Q U A R T E R L Y T O T A L S AT A N N U A L DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RATES R A T I O SC A L E T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 2 . 1 2.0 1.9 1 . 8 1. 7 1 .6 1. 5 1. 4 1.3 1 .7 1 . 6 1 .5 1 .4 1 .3 1. 2 1. 1 1 . 0 0.9 0 . 8 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 S O U R C E : •U . S . QGNP IN C UR R E N T D O L L A R S . I2.GNP IN 1 972 D O L L A R S . P E R C E N T A G E S ARE A N N UA L R A T E S OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S LATEST DATA P L O T T E D : 1ST Q U A R T E R 1977 D E P A R T M E N T OF COMMERCE INDICATED. p R Ep A R£ D g y p £ 0 £ R A L R E S E R v E 13 1978 BANK OF S T . LOUIS GENERAL PRICE INDEX* RATIO SCALE RATIO SCALE 1972-100 197 2-100 ■AS USED IN NA T IO H A L PERCENTAGES ARE LATEST R LO T TED t DATA IN CO M E ANNUAL ACCO UNTS RATES 1 ST OF SOURCEt CHANCE FOR P E R IO D S IM P L IC IT P R IC E D EFLA TO R ____________ M Ê È V ê i * r a t e ? ¡ ____ _______ _ ir 7 ? 1 -7 1 4~71 1- 7 4 - ¿ -7 4 DEPARTM ENT OF CO M M E RC E Q UARTER T R E fA R E D TERM INAL U .S . IN O IC A T E O . I r ?» __ 1 -7 ? 8Y FED ERAL RESERVE F O R C R O S S N A T IO N A L m » t BANK OF ST. L O U IS PR O D U C T _____________________________ JWlim WARTgR 2 - 7 ? __ 3L- 7 ? _ 4r75, 1 - 7 4 . 2 - 7 6 __ 3 -7 6 4 - 7 6 __ L - 7 J 2 - 17 1 - 77 . 4 — 7 7 106.S7„ _ L Q 9 .05 .111.28 iv_* f . A l t v lA * y . __I t t l 10*B 11*0 1 1*6 11*7 1*7 10*0 10*1 10*4 10*2 W S . .. - Ì j V _?* 2 - - AV.t* 1 -7 3 10*1 2 -7 3 _T*1_. JfcÖL 1-7»- .Jgg*.. 1 * 7 . 2 * 2 ... «*3 3 .« \ 7 .1 4 .5 •* 7___ i * e __ Ç t 7___ « , 7 ___ «*3___ 7 . « 1?«*. 1*1> ^ ........ 7*3 6*» 5*5___ 5 * 5 . 7*3 7*3 7*3 2 * 4 ____7*4____7«_2_ 3-73 _ 4-73 - . 12ft.► P i) 1*2 “5.7%“ 4. B 6*1____1*5___ 1 *4 ___ 1*1___ 4 * 1 ___ 5*0___ 5 .0 3.1 _4**_ JL * 5 - 2 * 4 ----- 1 * 4 ----- 7 t 2 2-73 ... _ 1 * 1 ____ 4 » 3 1*1 - 2 * 1 -----2 * 2 ----- 1 * 1 ___ 1*5___ 1*1___ 4 *2___ 6*4___ 5*1___ 1*4___ >-77 ... 6*e »*0___ t * l___ 7 * 9 __1*2___ I*?___ 7 * 0 __4*2___ 5*1 5 * 4 ___ 1.0___ 4 .1 2 * 6 ____ 7 * 7 I-T » 9*7 _1*1_ J U 1 ___ L A ___ i * l ___ i * i ___ 1*1___ Z*A___ 4*1_ 2 -2 7 1 4 - n 124..21 lo . e ^ v ^ 2 * 1 ___9 , 3 ____ 9 , 4 ___ 9*Q__ _5_*5____ 7*5___ 6*4 7 *9 ___ 1 * 1 ___ 7*^7___ 7* 7 1 -7 1 2*4. 121. .Oh 11*7 5 -4 .1*4 nfl.M - 5 * 9 ____ 6 * 2 - —7 * 1 ____ 6*9____6*6____4*0____ 1*4____ 5*1____ 1 * 1 _ 1 * 4 ___ 5*1___ 1 *4___ 5*1___ 3 - 7 7*2___ 4*2___ 4*1___ 4*0___ i* 4 _ 7*2 1-74 _4*2___ 6*? 2-74 3-74 6*1 4-74 1*1____1*1____ 5*5____1*1____ 1*4____1*1____3 .9 1-73 2-79 3-75 4-73 1-76 2-76 3-76 5 - f i _____ ___________S A 6 .3 ___ 7 .1 ) 6 *0 , 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 IN IT IA L . QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE B A I* OF S T . LOUIS NAY I S . 197« 14 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE__________ TERMINAL QUAKT ER in it ia l __ 3-73 ^3-73 0 .9 ^2 3 8 .2 4-73___ir7 4 1—74 8 .9 8 .9 1 0 .4 9.8 10.1 11.4 12.3 10.6 U.l 1 2 >3 13.3 -^--24 9.3 ^-75^ 9 -8 3-75 4-75 2-76 M -lh___1=2$___¿-75 3-71^ 9.4 9,8 10.4 3,2 9 1 6 *2 * • 7 ___ e t8___ .§.*_____ 9 ^ 1 _ 10.4 9 >9 8 . 4 ___ L L t l ___ 1 3 t 2 A Qy 7__ L0i7__ L&^4___ 2^5__ LL«jè___12*2___12.7 ioa 1 0 - 3 ___1 0 . 5 ___1 0 . 9 1 0 . 9 ___1 0 . 7 1 0 i O ___il .8___ 1 2 , 7 ___ 1 2 , 4 ___ 1 2 , i 10.6 L U ? ___ U . O 1 0 T 5___ 1 2 . 0 ___1 2 , 9 ___ 1 2 * 4 ___1 2 ^ 10.4 4-75 14 .3 9 . 4 ____ 9 ^ ___lÇL-_0____ ________ 8 16 1— 75 3-74 Ö IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 1-76__ ¿-76___3nL6__ *t- lh ___1=12___2=22-- 3=22— 4-77, 7 .5 1 “7 4 _ 3-74 ¿-74 q ua r ter 10.7 J JL. J L3.1 - 1 Î U 4 ___1 Q . 9 ___1 & l S ___1£L*S___ LiLri___ L U Ì ___ 1 2 . Q ___L L J ___ L U i ___U U Ï 8.8 *V * ? * V , V ..Ait à 2-77 10.5 10.6 10.8 10.9 3-77 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.7 4-77 10.6 10.7 10.9 10.9 10.8 10.6 11.2 11.4 11.2 11.0 10.9 10.6 10.9 11-3 10-6 10-0 1-78 10.4 10.5 10.7 10.7 10.6 10.3 10.9 11.0 10. 8 10.7 10.5 10.2 10.4 10.6 9.9 9.3 9.9 10.6 7-3 2-73 3-73 4-73 1-74 2-74 3-74 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 & 1 «V 10.7 ,1x1 I. . , i l l V 10.4 11.2 lit 7 AA.1 ill.V l l I T .._l i t V litii 11.4 11.2 11.0 10.8 10.7 10.3 --- i_i 11.3 9.9 1 .194,.0 7.6 1 t21fl.,9 INITIAI 11 14.0 .s 1, 1 , ?fl1 ..9 QUARTER P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T I O N E X P B f O I T U R E S IN C O N S T A N T 1 9 7 2 D O L L A R S ___________________ C O M P O U N D E D A N N U A L R A T E S Q F C H A N G E _____________________ ____________________ B IL L IO N S OF QUARTER 2-73 3-73 1*9 4-73 -0.2 3-73 4-73 1-74 2-74 3-74 4-74 ANNUAL RATES 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4,-77 770.4 -2.3 765.9 1-74 -0.9 -2.3 -2.2 2-74 -0.7 -1.5 -1,1 0.1 1.3 761 .6 7AA 3-74 -0.0 -0.5 0. 1 4-74 -1.2 -1.8 -1.7 -1.5 -2.3 -7.0 1-75 -0.7 -1.2 -0.9 — 0. 6 -0.8 -2.5 2.1 2-75 0.2 0.0 0.4 0.9 1.1 0.7 4.7 7.3 3-75 0.8 0.6 1.1 1.6 1.9 1.8 4.9 6.3 2.6 756.9 770.4 780.2 5.2 4-75 1.3 1.3 1.7 2.3 2.7 2-7 5.3 6.4 5.9 6.6 1-76 1.9 1.9 2.4 3.0 3*4 3.5 5.7 6.6 6.4 7.0 7.5 2-76 2.1 2.1 2.5 3.1 3.5 3.6 5.5 6.1 5.9 6.1 5.8 3-76 2.2 2.2 2.6 3.1 3.5 3.6 5.2 5.7 5.4 5.4 5,1 3.9 3.6 4-76 2.6 2.7 3.1 3.6 4.0 4.1 5.6 6.1 5.9 6.1 5.9 5.4 6.0 A.6 3.3 3.7 4.1 4.2 5.6 6.0 5.8 5.9 5.8 5.4 5.7 6.8 5.1 792.8 B Û T ^2 8 IS.5 4.2 8 2 2 .7 fll9.fi 1-77 2,8 2.9 2-77 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.6 3.9 4.0 5.2 5.5 5.3 5.3 5.1 4.6 4.7 5.1 3.4 1.8 3-77 2.7 2.8 3.2 3.5 3.8 3.9 5.0 5.3 5.0 5.0 4.8 4.3 4.4 4.6 3.3 2.4 3.0 4-77 3.1 3.2 3.5 3.9 4.2 4.3 5.3 5.6 5.5 5.5 5.3 5.0 5,2 5.5 4.8 4.6 6.1 9.3 1-78 2.9 2.9 3.3 3.6 3*8 3.9 4.8 5.1 4.8 4.8 4*6 4.3 4.3 4.4 3.6 3.2 3.7 4.0 -1 .O 2-73 3-73 4-7 3 1-74 2-74 3-74 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 A 7*7-9 IN IT IA L A5Û-4 A&4.1 860-4 A79-A 877.5 Q UA RTER PRfPARED BV FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS HÄY 1 «. 1*78 15 M O SS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS ____________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANCE_______________ TERMINAL__________________________________________________________________IN IT IA L QUARTER ____________________ _ QUARTER 2-73 3-73 4-73 1-75 2“ 75_ 3-25 4-75 1-74 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 Jtr2± 3 -7 3 3*7 4-73 12.8 2 2 .6 -2*4 “ 22*4 1-74 -0*4 2-74 0*9 3-74 4-74 1-77 7 -7 7 3 -T 7 ¿-7 7 annual r ates 7 17.^ -9*8 4*9 “ 2 *7 -4*2 “ 11*8 -6 .0 -15*7 -2*3 -3*5 -9*1 -4*2 -6*5 -0*1 ________________ B IL L IO N S Of ______________________ HOLLARS 7 1 9 .9 7 1 0 -7 -0 *6 2 1 Q .4 1-75 -11*6 -14*1 -20*0 “ 19*4 —26 *2 -30*9 -52*0 2-75 -11*4 -13*4 -18*2 -1 7 .4 -22.1 -24*2 -33*6 175- 1 -6*6 3-75 -2*6 -3*4 —6*6 -3*7 -5*3 -2*5 -3*2 37*6 107*2 4-75 -2*5 - 3 .2 - 6 .0 -3*4 -4*7 -2*3 -2*7 23*2 43*0 -1*4 1-76 2*2 2*0 - 0 .0 3.2 2.9 6*4 7*9 32*1 49*4 26*6 63*0 2-76 3 *? 3*9 2*2 5*4 5*4 6*6 10*5 »>.6 42.6 26.1 42 .5 24.7 2 OS - 4 ^ 244 -4 3-76 4*9 4 .9 3*5 6 .5 6*7 9 .9 11.4 26.2 37.2 23.6 3 3.5 20.9 4-76 3*2 3*2 1*7 4 .2 4*1 6 .6 7 .6 20*7 26 .4 14.5 16.9 7 .0 1-77 6*1 6*2 5*1 7*7 6 .0 10.7 12.1 24.6 30.2 20.5 25 .5 17.5 15.2 14.2 55.5 2-77 7*8 6*1 7*2 9*9 10*3 13*0 14*5 26*1 31*2 2 3 .0 2 7 .6 21.5 2 0 .7 21.8 46.8 36.6 3-77 6*1 6*4 7*5 10*0 10.4 12.9 14.3 24.6 2 9 .0 2 1.6 2 5.3 19.9 16.9 19.4 34.3 24.8 12.3 4-77 7*9 6*1 7*3 9*6 10.0 12*2 13.4 22.6 26*3 19.5 2 2 .4 17.5 16.3 16.2 26.0 17.5 8.2 4-1 1-78 8*4 6*6 7*9 10.1 10.5 12.6 13*7 22*2 25*5 19*3 21*9 17*5 16*5 16.4 24^i 17.5 11.3 10.7 17.8 2-73 3-73 4-73 1-74 2—74 3-74 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 17.2 2 5 4 -3 -0.6 -16.1 2 4 3 .4 771 -ft 2 9 4 .9 ^0/»_7 3 1 9 .5 IN IT IA L QUARTER GROSS PRIVATE DONESTIC INVESTMENT IN CONSTANT 1972 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGE B IL L IO N S Of TERMINAL QUARTO* IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 3-73 4-73 1-74 2-74 3-74 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-74 1-77 2-77 3-77 4 -T F 3-73 -4*7 4-73 4*3 1-74 -6*4 -7*2 -24*5 1 9 7 -4 —8*5 —9 *7 -19*7 - 1 4 .5 189.fi 2-74 204.9 14*2 3-74 -12*1 -13*8 - 2 1 .5 -20*0 -25*0 4-74 -12*2 -13*6 -19*5 -17*7 —19*2 -12*9 170-6 1-75 -22*4 -25*0 -31*1 -3 2 .6 -37 *8 -43.3 -63.1 2-75 -20*6 -22*6 - 2 7 .4 -26*0 -31*0 -32.9 -41*1 -6*2 3-75 -12*6 -13*6 -16*9 -15*6 —15*6 -13.3 -13.4 32.5 87.1 4-75 -1 2 .3 -13*2 -1 6 .1 - 1 4 .8 -14*6 -12.6 -12.5 133.0 130.9 1 5 3 .1 16*6 29.9 -9*8 1-76 -7*4 -7*6 -9*8 - 7 .7 -6*7 -3 .2 -1*2 26*4 39.6 20 .6 61*1 14<L*2 2-76 -5*5 -5*5 - 7 .3 -5*2 -3*9 -0 .5 1*6 24.7 33.6 19.7 37 .9 18.0 3-76 -4 .4 - 4 .3 - 5 .9 -3*6 -2*5 0 .6 2*9 22.1 26 .7 17.2 27 .9 13.9 4-76 -5*7 -5*7 - 7 .2 -5*5 - 4 .5 -1 .9 - 0 .4 14.7 18.7 B .3 13.4 0 .9 1-77 —2 .8 - 2 .6 - 3 .6 -1 .8 —0 *6 2 .2 4*1 18.5 22.5 14.1 19.6 11.1 a.a 6 .3 4 6 .2 2-77 -1*3 -1*0 - 2 .0 - 0 .0 1*3 4*1 6 .0 19*1 22 .7 15.6 2 0 .4 13.6 12.6 13.4 35.6 2 4 .5 1 M .1 175.2 9 .9 179.6 —6 .7 -20.9 169.2 1BA. 7 197^2 3-77 - 0 .8 -0*5 -1 *4 0 .5 1.7 4 .4 6.1 17*9 20.9 14.5 16.5 12.6 11.5 11.9 2 5 .6 15.7 7 .5 4-77 -1 .1 -0*9 -1 *7 0 .0 1.1 3.5 5 .0 15.5 17.9 12.0 15*1 9 .6 8 .3 B .O 1 6.7 7.8 0 .3 -4»* 1-7* - 0 .4 - 0 .2 - 0 .9 0 .8 1.9 4 .1 5.6 15*2 17.4 12.1 14*6 10.0 8 .9 8.8 1 5 .9 9 .0 4 .3 2 .7 1 2 .7 2-73 3-73 4-73 1-74 2-74 3-74 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 200.fi 197.5 203.5 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK Of ST* LOUIS HAY I B . 19TB 16 GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AND SER VIC ES IN CURRENT DOLLARS _________ £ O W » S W Ì& ie ^ A !Ì& à l^ ^ ___________ ________ B IL L IO N S OF ANNUAL RATES QUARTER _ 2 ^ ?3_ 3-73 3— 7 3 4-73 1-74 2-74 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4 - 7 5 ___ 1= l h ___¿ “1 6 ___3 - 7 6 — 4-16— L-17— Z-JLL— 3l==H— 4-72, 2 6 5 .1 6.5 4-73 , 2 7 7 ,8 13.2 OrIi_ -1? * 9 2-74 12.3 14 «4 14.9 15*4 3-74 1 2 »7 14 »4 14*6 14*9 _Ar74 —297 «B_ 14.4 L ^ 9 ^ 4 tt___ 1 4 t ? ...H t ^._ l ? t7___ 1 2 . 9 . 1-7 5 12.5 13.6 1 3 .7 13.5 lZ iS JiU H W 11*9 2-7_____ 5 12«^-L3->3 Jr 2 ? 3-74 _ l g*2___12*9 11.9 1 1 *0 J-7 6 12*9 12*6 A2jL5 _ _ i2 ^ 4 _ i2 jq 11*5 11 .3 10*9 335.2_ l i t ? ___1 1 * » _ 12 *1___1 1 .? _ 11.1 ___11*0___1Q.3- IM 10*3 n * 0__U>*6. 9*6 IP**___ 9*6 9*0____0*5____ 7 * 4 , 2-76 10.6 11. Q 10*8 3-76 10*2 10*5 10*2 4-76 10*0 1Q*3 10*0 1-77 9*7 9 .9 9*7 9*3 8*7 8*2 2-77 10*2 10*4 10*2 9*9 9*5 9*0 3-77 10*2 10*5 10*3 10.0 9*6 9*2 8 .9 4-77 10*4 10*6 10*5 10.2 9 .9 9*5 9 .2 1-78 10*0 10*2 1 0 .0 9*7 9*4 9*0 2-73 3-73 4-73 1-74 2-74 3-74 3.0, 4 . 6 ____ 6 . 1 10.4____9*9 _._.9*1___________ &*£____1*X_ 9 * 6 ____ 9 ^ ____ ^ 363,0 4*6____5*4____4 .6 _ ____ 1 * 4 ____ 6*^l 9 * 6 ____ 9 J ____ 8 ^ ____ 51*0____ I * 5 _ 7*2 6 .6 6 .0 5 .4 6 .0 6 .0 6*7 5 .4 8 .4 7 .9 7*6 7*4 8 .3 6 . fi 10.3 1 1 .4 8*6 8 .3 6 .0 7 .9 6 .7 9 .3 10.4 1 1 .3_ 9*1 8*8 8 .6 a .6 9 .4 10.0 11.0 11. B 8*7 8.5 8*2 8*0 7*9 6*5 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 7 .7 6*9 ... 9*6 2-76 3-76 374-9 17*fi__ __ 1 4 .L 10.0- .1.1*1__ 4-76 1-77 413 -8 12*2 13.5 9 .0 fl.Q 2 .7 2-77 3-77 4-77 4 1 6 .6 IN IT IA L QUARTER GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOOOS ANO SER VIC ES IN CONSTANT 1972 DOLLARS CONFOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE B IL L IO N S OF TERMINAL QUARTER 2-73 3-73 4-73 3—73 1*0 4-73 0*6 0*3 3 .5 6 .8 1-74 2-74 3-74 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4—76 1 -7 7 1-74 2*7 2 .5 3*1 4*5 3-74 2*3 2*7 3*5 1*8 1*4 4-74 1.9 2 .1 2 .5 1.1 0 .5 - 0 .3 1-75 1*9 2*0 2 .3 1*2 0 .9 0 .7 1.7 2-75 2*2 2*4 1*7 1.9 1*8 2*0 3.1 3-75 ÌM 2 * ?_ -2f9 2 .2 2*2 2 .4 3 .4 4-75 2*2 2*4 2*6 2*0 2 *0 2 .1 2 .7 2 .4 0*9 1-76 1*8 1*9 2 .1 1*5 1*4 1*4 1*7 0 .8 -0*7 -2 .2 2-76 1.7 1 .« 1 .9 1.4 1.3 1*3 1.6 0 .8 -0.2 - 0 .8 O .B 3-76 1*6 1 .7 1.8 1*3 1*2 1.2 1*4 0*7 -0*1 - 0 .4 0 .5 0 .3 1»6 1.2 1*1 l.Q _ 1*2 0 .6 -0.1 - 0 .3 0 .4 0 .2 0 .0 1.3 1 .4 0*9 0 *8 0 .7 0 .9 0 .2 -0 .4 —0 .6 -0.2 - 0 .6 - 1 .0 - 2 .0 2*0 1*6. .. 1 *6 1.6 4 .1 10.6 . 3-77 4 -7 7 -251.fL_ 2-74 .. *-76 ANNUAL RATES 2 -7 7 1*5_ 7 * * .7 2 .2 7 *H ^ 7 ^ 9 .4 . 7A7 r * 3 .9 ?6 A Tft 7 M r« , A. 7 6 4 ..A 7 1 * 4 .^ 1-77 1.3 2-77 1*8 U9_ . 1*8 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.8 2*1 2 .7 3-77 2*1 2a 1._ __ 2 t?_ _ _ .i* 9 . A t* 2t0 2*2 2 .0 1.7 1.8 2 .5 2 .9 3 .6 4 .a a .3 6 .1 4-77 Iti. 2 t?- 2« 1 2.1 2.1 2 .4 2 .2 2 .0 2 .2 2 .6 3 .2 3 .7 4 a7 7-0 5*3 4 .S 1-78 1*9 1*9 2 .0 1*7 1*7 1.7 1*9 1.7 1.4 1.5 2.0 2.1 2 .5 3*0 4 .2 2 .2 0-3 -1 -7 2-73 3-73 4-73 1-74 2-74 3—74 4-74 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4—76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 - .* ? m .n 7T4 -fi 7 7 4 .4 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPAREO BV FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . NAY I B * 1978 17 LO UIS DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS COHPQUNOeO ANNUAL RATES Of CHANCE_________ TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL 2-73 3-73 9.5 4-73 10.£ 3-73 4-7 3 1—7 4 2-74 3— 74 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-7f B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 9 11.4 12*1 1-74 8.9 8*5 5.1 2-74 9.2 9*1 7*7 10*3 3-74 9.7 9*7 8*9 10*9 949-«i 973-1 11*4 999-7 4-74 9.2 9*1 8.4 9*5 9.1 6.8 1-75 8.4 8*2 7.4 8*0 7*2 5*2 2-75 10.7 10*9 10*7 11*9 12*2 12*5 15*5 28*7 3-75 9.6 9*6 9*3 10.0 10.0 9.6 10.6 14.2 4-75 9.7 9*8 9*5 10*1 10*1 9*8 10.6 13.0 5.9 10*8 1-76 9*8 9*9 9*6 10*2 10*2 10*0 10*7 12.5 7.5 10.8 10.8 2-76 9.6 9*6 9*4 9*9 9.8 9.6 10*1 11.4 7.5 9.7 9,1 7,4 3-76 9*4 9*4 9*2 9*6 9*5 9.3 9*6 10*6 7.3 8.9 8.3 7.1 6.7 4-76 9*5 9*5 9*2 9*6 9*6 9.4 9*7 10*6 7.8 9.? 8.8 8.1 8.4 10.2 1-77 9.5 9*5 9.3 9.7 9.6 9.4 9.7 10.5 8.1 9.3 9.0 a.6 9.0 10.2 10.1 2-77 9.7 9*8 9*6 10*0 9.9 9.8 10*1 10*8 9.9 9.8 9.5 10*1 11.2 li.ft 13.4 1 ri1lA.? 3*7 1.092.2 1.3 1.0*5-7 1 fl 2 4 - 1 1 .1 5 1 - 3 1.174 -1 1 tl4 1 - 1 1 1 -7*7.4 1.742.5 3-77 9*8 9*8 9.6 10*0 9.9 9.8 10*1 10.8 B.9 9.9 9.8 9.6 10.1 10.9 11.2 11.7 10.0 4— 77 10*0 10*0 9*9 10*2 10.2 10.1 10.4 11*1 9.4 10.4 10.3 10*3 10.7 11.6 11.9 12.5 12.1 14.1 1-78 10*0 10*0 9*9 10*2 10*2 10 t l 10*4 11*0 9*5 10.4 l(Lr3^ 10.3 10.7 11*3 11*6 12.0 11.5 12.2 10.1 2-73 3-73 4-73 1-74 2-74 3-74 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 INITIAL 1 .171-.fi 1 .16A.1 1*402.1 QUARTER DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN C O N STANT 1972 COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE DOLLAR?; B I L L I O N S Of TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL 2-73 _ 3-73 4-73 1-74 3-73 2*6 4-73 2*2 1-74 -0*9 -2*7 -7*0 2-74 -1*1 -2*3 -4*4 -1*7 2-74 3-74 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 RATES 4-77 1*8 862.1 A46.7 _843^1 3-74 -0*9 -1*8 -2*9 -0*9 -0*0 4-74 -1,4 -2*2 -3*1 -1*8 -1*9 -3.7 1-75 -1*6 -2*3 -3*1 -2*1 -2*3 -3*3 -3*0 2-75 1*1 0*9 0*7 2*3 3.3 4*5 8*8 3-75 0*3 0*1 -0*2 1*0 1*5 1*9 4-75 0*8 0*6 0*5 1*6 2*1 2*6 1-/6 1*2 1*1 1*0 2*0 2*6 3*0 2-76 1*4 1*2 1*2 2*1 2.6 843-0 835.1 826.a 22*0 871.1 3*9 7*4 -5.4 859.1 4*2 6*7 -0*2 5.3 4*4 6*4 1*6 5.3 5.3 3.0 4.2 5.7 1.9 4.5 4.1 2.9 870.2 881.5 8fi7.fi 3-76 1*4 1*2 1.2 2*0 2*5 2*8 3*8 4.9 1*8 3.7 3*2 2.1 1.3 4-76 __ 1 * 6 1*5 1.5 2*3 2*7 3*0 3*9 4*9 2.3 3*9 3.6 3.0 3.1 4.9 1-77 It 7 1*6 1*6 2.4 2.7 3*0 3.8 4.7 2.4 3.8 3.1 3.1 4-0 2-77 2*0 2*0 2*0 2*7 3*1 3*4 4*2 5*0 3*0 4*3 4.1 3.9 4.1 5.1 5.2 7-3 3-77 2.2 2*1 2*2 2*9 3*2 3.5 4*2 4*9 3*2 4.3 4.2 4.0 4.2 4.9 4.9 5.8 4-4 934-4 * “7 7 2*6 2*6 2*6 3*3 3.6 3.9 4.6 5.3 3.8 4 . ft 4.7 5.0 5- A 6-0 7-0 6-4 955-ft 1-78 2.5 2*5 2*6 3*2 3*5 3*8 4*4 5*0 3*6 4.5 4*5 4.4 4.6 5.1 5.1 5.7 5.1 5.5 1.7 2-73 3-73 4-73 1-74 2-74 3-74 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77 4-77 INITIAL A40-7 901.5 9Qfl-4 3.1 924.5 QUARTER PREPARED BY PEOCRAL RESERVE B A I* Of S T . HAY IB * 1978 18 9S9..9 LOUIS CORPORATE PR O flT S AFTER TAXES * ÇOHPOUNOED ANNUAL f TERMINAL QUARTER ______________I z l l ___3 - 7 3 3-73 B IL L IO N S OF ___ DOLLARS___ ANNUAL RATES JLM iTIA l QUARTER 4-73 1-74 ¿-74 3-74 4-74 1-75 -13.9 2-73 3-75 4-75 1 - 7 6 ____¿ - 1 6 ___ 3 r 7 6 ___4 - 7 6 ___ 1 ^ 7 7 ___ 2 - 7 7 ___3 - 7 7 — 4-22 65-4 4-73 I *8 ¿0*4 ____1 - 7 4 5,9 1 7 f5 ____________ T > j ^ l ^ . >-4 j ^ 9 U t? 3-74 1 5 .2 2 3 ,9 2 5 ,0 3 0 ,5 5 3 .3 4-74 5 ,4 9 .8 7 .3 4 .9 1 .9 _______ __________________________ _______ 1 4 , 6 ______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 2 0 . 9 22 . a f ll . o 73-5 - 3 2 .2 1-75 - 6 .1 “ 4 ,7 - 9 ,1 - 1 4 .2 “ ¿ 1 .4 - 4 3 .7 - 5 3 ,2 2-75 0 .2 2 ,4 - 0 .3 -3, I - 6 ,3 “ 2 0 .5 - 1 3 ,9 5 6 .3 9 ,6 9 .3 0 .5 1 4 .6 7 9 .2 1 0 2 .9 6 Û -A 68-2 3-75 8 *4 1 1 ,6 1 0 ,4 4-75 8 .4 1 1 ,2 1 0 ,1 9 ,5 9 ,2 2 ,1 1 3 ,1 5 1 .7 4 6 .5 6 .6 i —76 1 1 .0 1 3 .8 1 3 ,1 1 2 ,9 1 3 ,2 7 ,6 1 6 .0 - 6 .7 4 5 .6 2 3 .3 '+0.C ¿- 7 6 1 1 ,1 1 3 ,7 1 3 .1 1 2 .9 1 3 .1 6 .3 1 7 .1 4 0 .6 3 6 .5 1 9 .6 2 5 .5 3-76 1 0 ,5 1 2 ,9 1 2 .2 1 1 ,9 1 2 .0 7 ,7 1 5 ,1 3 3 .7 2 9 .3 1 5 .5 1 7 .9 6 .1 3 .9 4-76 8 ,7 1 0 ,7 9 .9 9 ,5 9 ,3 5 .3 1 1 ,2 2 5 .6 2 1 .1 9 .2 9 .4 0 .7 - 4 .7 - 1 2 .6 1-77 1 0 .0 1 2 .0 1 1 .4 1 1 .1 1 1 .1 7 .6 1 3 .2 2 6 .4 2 2 .4 1 2 .6 1 3 .4 7 .5 5 .9 6 .9 ¿- 7 7 1 1 ,3 1 3 ,3 1 2 ,6 1 2 .6 1 2 .7 9 .6 1 5 .0 2 7 .1 2 3 .7 1 5 .2 1 6 .4 1 2 .1 1 2 .0 1 4 .9 3 1 .7 3-77 1 0 ,5 1 2 ,2 1 1 ,7 1 1 ,4 1 1 .5 6 .5 1 3 .3 2 3 .6 2 0 .4 1 2 .8 1 3 .4 9 .5 6 .9 1 0 .2 19. Ô 1 3 -6 -2-7 4 —7 7 1 0 ,2 1 1 .6 1 1 .3 1 1 .0 1 1 .0 6 .9 1 2 .6 2 2 .0 1 6 .6 1 2 .0 1 2 .4 t .* A .) 9 .3 1 5 .5 1 Û -A 1 -3 1- 7 6 9 .1 1 0 ,6 1 0 .0 9 ,6 9 ,7 7 .1 1 0 .9 1 9 .2 1 6 .1 9 .6 1 0 .0 6 .7 5 .9 6 .2 1 0 .4 5 .9 2-73 3-73 4-7 3 1-74 2 —74 3-74 4-74 1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 81 - 4 83-1 9 0 -4 43-1 1 2 .5 94-Û 40 -4 3Û -7 47-2 32-6 1Û6-3 1Û3-A in ^ .n 5- 5 - i.a -1-3 -7-8 2-77 3-77 4-77 102-4P I N I T IA L QUARTER ♦ N A TIO N A L 1WCONE B A S I S P - P R E LIM IN A R Y PREPARED »Y FEDERAL RESERVE 6 A IK OF ST* LO UIS SOURCES OF DATA NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA Source: U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic Analysis, Washington, D.C. 20230 1929-72: The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, l92§-74, A Survey of Current Business Supplement. 1973: Survey of Current Business, July 1976. 1974-76: Survey of Current business, July 1977. The Survey is available from most district offices of the Department of Conroerce or from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. 19 INVENTORIES COMPARED W I T H MANUFACTURING MO NT H LY SALES** AND TRADE 72 1 . 6 8 6 8 64 . 60 60 . 56 56 . 52 52 48 44 1 40 36 I . 36 1964 RATI OS 1965 1966 BASED ON SE ASONALLY ADJ USTED DATA. SHADED AREAS # * DATA R E V I S E D LATEST 1967 REPRESENT P E R I ODS 1969 1970 OF B U S I N E S S 1971 1972 1973 1974 SOURCE: 1975 1976 U . S . DEPARTMENT 1977 1978 OF COMMERCE RECESSIONS. FROM 1967. DATA PL OTTED: 1968 MARCH P R E L I MI NA R Y PREPARED 2 0 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
@FedFRASER