Full text of National Economic Trends : July 1997
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July 1997 The Tortoise Revises the Hare Since the last issue of National Economic Trends, payroll or establishment survey employment— one of the most closely watched economic statistics— has under gone its annual benchmark revisions. As the chart shows, the most recent revision (57,000) was trivial, but the previous revision (542,000) amounted to more than one-sixth of the employment growth between March 1994 and March 1995. Given the prominence of the payroll data, it is important to know why large discrepan cies sometimes arise. The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) measures employment in three ways. First, it surveys households and asks whether the residents are employed. Second, it surveys employers (establishments) and asks how many people they have on their payrolls. Third, it assembles data from unemployment insurance (UI) tax forms that must be sent to state UI offices by every employer cov ered by the UI program. The process of benchmarking is intended to reconcile the two employer-based estimates by using the slow— but very accurate— UI employment “tortoise” (ES-202 data) to revise the quickly available— but relatively error-prone— establishment survey “hare.” Paradoxically, it is mostly the tortoise’s fault that the hare is inaccurate. BLS decides which establishments to survey based on the UI records, but drawing a sample in this way means that the payroll survey will miss many new employers whose paperwork has not yet found its way into the UI records. Without adjustment, therefore, the payroll employment estimates will be too low. BLS handles this problem by using a statistical model and other information to estimate a “bias adjustment fac tor” for each month. The bias adjustment is essentially an estimate of how many jobs are created each month in new establishments but missed by the sampling proce dure. Bias adjustment factors are not necessary with the data coming from UI records because, when they are finally complete, they contain data from every employer in the UI system. Each spring, the previous year’s March payroll employment estimates are revised to be consistent with that month’s UI data, as well as various other data on employers who are not covered by UI reporting require ments. The chart shows the effects of the 1995 and 1996 benchmarks. For most industries, one-twelfth of the March revision is added to not seasonally adjusted (NSA) estimates for the previous April, two-twelfths to May, and so on. Therefore, for large benchmark revi sions like March 1995, the overall revisions between benchmarks (April 1994 to February 1995) appear wedge-shaped. Because the March 1996 revision was so small, the exceptions to this procedure (notably the “eat ing and drinking places” industry) dominate the revi sions, so no wedge shape is visible in the chart between April 1995 and February 1996. Starting with April 1996 estimates, BLS incorporated new information into the bias adjustments for employment estimates (these months will get their final revisions a year from now). The net effect of all of the revisions was to lower the February 1997 NSA estimate by 54,000. — Joe Ritter Payroll Employment Benchmark Revisions March 1995 and March 1996 800 I March 1995 Benchmark I March 1996 Benchmark 600 542 w 400 ¡1 200 0 -200 I I ' M -------------------------------------------------------------1-------------------------------------------- 1994 1995 Data are not seasonally adjusted Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System ' I ' l l 1997 Tabi eofCon ten ts Page 3 Economy at a glance 4 Output and growth 7 Interest rates 8 Inflation and prices 10 Labor markets 12 Consumer spending 14 Investment spending 16 Government revenues, spending, and debt 18 International trade 20 Productivity and profits 22 Quick reference tables 27 Notes and sources Conventions used in this publication: 1. Charts and tables contain data that was current on June 30, 1997. 2. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research. 3. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from the same month or quarter in the previous year. The percent change at annual rate shows what the growth rate would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The percent change at annual rate of X between the previous quarter t-1 and the current quarter t is: For monthly data replace 4 with 12. 4. All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA. National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or Internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred. HationaìEconomicTrends Real GDP Growth Consumer Price Index Percent change at annual rate Percent change 0.5 - ................... 6 - ..................................................................................... 0.4 0 .3 - 0.2 — 0.1 — 0 .0 ^ 1994 1995 1996 1994 1997 Industrial Production Interest Rates Percent change 1.8 - ................................................................... Percent 1995 1996 1997 1995 1996 1997 1.2 — 0 .6 - IllL 0.0 'I III Jj °-6 i ........................... I........................... I........................... r.................. 1994 1995 1996 1997 2T Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Unemployment Rate Thousands 600 - 1994 Percent of labor force 7.0 - ................................ 1994 1995 1996 1997 4 5 i ........................... I........................... I........................... I.................. 1994 1995 1996 1997 3 National EconomicTrends Real Gross Domestic Product Percent change from year ago 0 industrial Production and Purchasing Managers’ (NAPM) Indexes Percent change from year ago Index - -6 -1 2 -1 8 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change from year ago 8 4 0 -4 -8 Real Change in Business Inventories Percent of GDP 4 for FRASER Digitized 1 7A National Economic!rends Real Final Sales and GDP Real GDP Revisions Percent change at annual rate 6 - ................................................................................................ Percent change at annual rate I i GDP (bar) 6— I Advance i Preliminary ■ Final 42 01997 96:1 Index Percent change - 96:2 96:3 I 96:4 97:1 Nominal Gross Domestic Product industrial Production and NAPM Index 1.8 i - .................................... 68 Percent change at annual rate 10 - .................................................................................................................................. 1995 1996 Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours Percent change 4 - .................. Hours 3 5 .0 - 1997 33.5 T 1995 1996 1997 Real Change in Business Inventories Billions of 1992 dollars 80 - ................................. Manufacturing and trade 1.46 - 1.31 1995 1996 1997 1995 1996 1997 5 National EconomicTrends Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth Percent change at annual rate 10- -4 95Q2 95Q4 95Q3 Consumption I Imports 96Q2 96Q1 Exports 1 : 96Q4 96Q3 9701 Real GDP I______ I Government i Inventories Investment Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate 1995_ _ 2nd 3rd 4th 1996 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1997 1st Real GDP 0 .7 5 3.81 0.26 2.00 4.68 2 .1 0 3 .8 2 5.91 Final Sales 2.1 1 3 .5 6 1 .3 5 3 .0 4 4.15 0 .4 7 4.89 4 .0 6 0 .22 -1 .1 6 -1 .0 1 0 .6 0 1.60 -0 .9 8 1.81 1.65 0.71 2.36 2 .2 8 0 .3 4 2 .2 8 3 .79 1 .4 6 Change in Inventory Consumption Fixed Investment -1 .4 2 2.1 1 -0 .2 3 0 .85 0.51 1 .4 7 1.05 1.54 0 .5 3 0 .3 6 0 .5 1 0 .2 6 1 .1 9 0.41 1.80 0 .6 1 1 .2 0 -0 .5 6 0 .3 4 0 .2 4 0.28 0.61 -0 .2 2 -0 .0 7 0 .2 6 0 .1 5 -0 .1 1 -0 .8 1 0.30 1 .3 9 -0 .1 2 -0 .1 6 0 .0 3 -0 .1 0 -0 .4 1 -0 .9 6 0.40 0 .6 2 -0 .2 4 -0 .3 7 -0 .2 2 0 .2 5 0 .3 1 0 .1 7 -0 .1 1 0 .7 6 0 .1 3 0 .2 2 0 .2 5 Net Exports 0 .0 7 1.19 0.99 -1 .1 2 -0 .6 3 -1 .3 1 2 .2 7 -1 .2 7 Exports 0 .6 5 1.18 1 .1 9 0.21 0 .6 6 -0 .1 0 2 .7 3 1.29 Imports -0 .5 8 0.0 0 -0 .2 1 -1 .3 3 -1 .2 8 -1 .2 1 -0 .4 5 -2 .5 3 0 .0 6 -0 .0 2 0 .0 3 0 .0 2 -0 .0 3 0.01 -0 .1 5 0 .0 3 Nonresidential Residential Government Federal State and Local Residual 6 for FRASER Digitized National EconomicTrends Interest Rates Percent Treasury Yield Curve Percent 7.5 - ..................................... 4-5 3m 1y 2y 5y 7y 10y ^ 30y Total Return on Standard and Poor’s 500 Percent change from year ago 75 - mmm ....... 7 National Economicirends GDP Chain Price Index Percent change from year ago Consumer Price Index Percent change from year ago Percent change from year ago Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago 8 for FRASER Digitized National EconomicTrends GDP Chain Price Index Crude Oil Price Percent change at annual rate 4 - .................................................. Dollars per barrel 28 - ..................... -... 3- 2- llllllll 1996 1995 1997 12 -T.................T................. T................. T................. T.................I.................I 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 Consumer Price Index Percent change at annual rate 4 - .................................................. Percent change 0.5 - .................... Excl. Food & Energy 0.4 — CPI (bar) 0.3 - 0.2 - 0.1 - yJ A \ 0.0 1995 1996 1997 1997 1996 Unit Labor Cost Producer Price Index, Finished Goods Percent change at annual rate Percent change 0.65 - 1995 1995 1996 1997 “6T 1995 ( Employment Cost Index Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago Percent change at annual rate 1996 1 1997 8 Benefits 6 - \ ......... 1995 1996 1997 9 National EconomicTrends Employment Percent change from year ago - 2 - Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates Percent of labor force Percent of population Duration of Unemployment Percent of labor force 4.50 Weeks 16 3.75 14 3.00 12 2.25 10 1.50 8 0.75 6 0.00 4 10 for FRASER Digitized National Economicïïends Change in Nonfarm Payrolls Change In Manufacturing Payrolls Thousands 600 - .................................................... Thousands 60 - ................................................................. 500 - .................................................... 400 - .................................................... l,l III! 1.1 -1 0 0 n.................................. I.................................. I..................... 1995 1996 1997 60 1 .................................. 1.................................. 1.................... 1995 1996 1997 Change in Household Employment Labor Force and Population Thousands 1250 - .................................................................. Percent change from year ago 2.5 - ........-.......................................... 1000 - 750 - -2 5 0 - _50° 1....................... 1....................... r.............. 1995 1996 00 1 1997 I 1992 I 1993 I 1994 Unemployment Rate Help-Wanted Advertising Percent Index 6.0 - I 1995 I 1996 1997 Percent ............................................................................................................................................................................. 1995 1996 1997 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 11 Nat iona IEconomic Tren ds Percent change from year ago, quarterly data 12 4 0 -4 Real Consumption Percent change from year ago 30 - ............. j w r .................................... | g .............. Percent change from year ago ................................................................mi?.............................................................. - 21 Durables o— w —1 0 — / H -------------------------- t F \/ --------------------------------------- (— » \ / — —7 v ------------- v ----------------------------------------------- 0 \/ IIS '-1 <,-* * WM. - 2 0 -I....... I...... ....................r........T ........I........T................ T........I... -...T........I........I........I........T....... 1........ 1....... 1 ....f ...... I ........I....... I ........I........I I........r -1 4 Retail Sales Percent change from year ago of quarterly average 16 12 8 4 0 -4 Debt Service as Percent of Disposable Income Percent Digitized 12 for FRASER Percent National Economicïïends Real Disposable Income Personal Saving Rate Percent change Percent 1 . Ill lui 1 1Il■ li 1ll.il.i ■2 -[.....................................I ................................... I....................... ' 1995 1996 1997 1992 1 1993 ' 1994 1 1995 1 1996 1 1997 Real Consumption Real Consumption Percent change Percent change 8 2_I 1.6 - - .............................................................. .............................................................. Retail Sales Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales Percent change 2.25 - Percent change 9- Millions of ol vehicles, annual rate - 16.0 Autos and light trucks -1.5 0 1997 1996 1995 Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan) Real Durables Consumption Index Percent change 30 - .................... 110 — 601 1992 1 1993 1 1994 ' 1995 [ 1996 1 1997 ■20 T 1995 ' 1996 1 1997 13 National EconomicTrends Real Investment Percent of GDP Real Private Fixed Investment Percent change from year ago Real Nonresidential and Producers Durable Equipment Investment Percent change from year ago ........ mm 25 - ■1 5 1 .............[.......... I 72 73 1............ 1 T ' 74 75 76 I ............. I ............ P 77 Real Residential Investment Percent change from year ago Digitized 14 for FRASER 78 79 ..... Ì ....... "' 1 .......... 80 81 82 T ............. I ............ I ............ I .............I .............T .............I .............I ......“ T 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 .......... 1............. 1.............1.............1............ 1 ............1 91 92 93 94 95 96 I 97 National EconomicTrends Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment Percent of GDP Percent of GDP ..... . - 6 - 4 ............. - 2 - ..... r 97 Real Private Fixed Investment Nondefense Capital Goods Orders Percent change at annual rate 12 - ..................................................................................................... Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft 30- -10 1995 1996 1997 8 0 -2 -4 - 2 0 -, 1992 1 1993 1 1994 1 1995 Real Equipment Investment RealNonresidential Investment Percent change at annual rate 25 - ..................................................... Percent change at annual rate 20 - ...................................................................................................................... 1 1996 ' 1997 -5 T 1995 1996 1997 Real Residential Investment Housing Starts Percent change at annual rate 2 0 - ...................................................... Millions, annual rate 1.6 - ..................................................... 15 National EconomicTrends Govt. Consumption and Investment Government Receipts and Outlays Billions of 1992 dollars 1400 * .... Percent of GDP 2 0 0 1 .......r ~ ...i........i....... f 72 74 76 78 80 T® 82 i 84 i 86 i 88 i 90 i 92 i.......i.......i 94 96 98 Federal Outlays, 1994 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 Federal Receipts, 1994 Defense 22.61% Personal Income 39.54% Net Interest 12.85% Social Other 7.94% Corp. Profit 11.95% Medicare 10.46% Other 28.59% Medicaid 5.31% State and Local Outlays, 1994 Education 37.66% Social Insurance 40.57% State and Local Receipts, 1994 Corp. Profit 3.27% Personal Income Medical Care 17.32% Other 9.69% Other 19.13% Transportation 6.80% 16for FRASER Digitized Social Safety 10.44% 7.36% Federal Grants 20.70% 94 96 98 National Economicïïends Gross Federal Debt Federal Deficit Forcent of GDP 70- Percent of GDP 2 0 1 .............f 72 74 ...... ( ..............ì .............. r 76 78 80 ....... r v ...........1..............1.............. i .............. i 82 84 86 88 90 ..... 1 .............. 1 .............. 1 92 94 72 96 74 76 78 80 82 Change in Gross Federal Debt Federal Deficit, Unified Basis Percent of GDP Billions of dollars, fiscal years 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 84 86 88 90 92 94 96 Government Budgets Billions of dollars Unified Budget National Income Accounts Fiscal Years Calendar Years Federal State and Local Receipts Expenditures Surplus or Deticit(-) Receipts Expenditures Federal Surplus or Deticit(-) Receipts Outlays Surplus or Deficit(-) 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 3 6 1 .4 3 0 7 .0 5 4 .4 5 6 1 .5 6 2 2 .5 -6 1 .0 5 1 7 .1 3 9 0 .8 3 3 5 .4 5 5 .4 6 4 9 .3 7 0 7 .1 -5 7 .8 5 9 9 .3 6 7 8 .2 -7 9 .0 4 0 9 .0 3 5 7 .7 5 1 .3 6 4 6 .4 7 8 1 .0 -1 3 4 .6 6 1 7 .8 7 4 5 .8 -1 2 8 .0 4 4 3 .6 3 7 8 .8 64.8 6 7 1 .9 8 4 6 .3 -1 7 4 .4 6 0 0 .6 8 0 8 .4 -2 0 7 .8 4 9 2 .0 4 0 5 .1 8 6.9 7 4 6 .9 9 0 2 .9 -1 5 6 .0 6 6 6 .5 8 5 1 .8 -1 8 5 .4 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 5 2 8 .7 4 3 7 .8 9 0.9 81 1.3 9 7 4 .2 -1 6 2 .9 7 3 4 .1 9 4 6 .4 -2 1 2 .3 5 7 0 .6 4 7 5 .7 94.9 8 5 0 .1 1027.6 -1 7 7 .5 7 6 9 .1 9 9 0 .3 -2 2 1 .2 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 7 2 8 .9 7 8 4 .2 8 4 4 .3 7 5 8 .0 8 9 7 .1 8 0 2 .2 9 4 6 .4 8 4 6 .6 1995 1996 9 9 6 .1 9 0 1 .1 1 0 4 4.0 9 5 1 .0 5 9 0 .9 -7 3 .8 5 9 4 .9 51 1.1 8 3.8 9 3 7 .4 1 0 66.3 -1 2 8 .9 854 .1 1 0 0 3.9 -1 4 9 .8 6 3 1 .4 5 4 5 .5 8 5.9 9 9 7 .2 1 1 1 8 .5 -1 2 1 .3 9 0 9 .0 1 0 6 4 .1 -1 5 5 .2 6 8 1 .0 5 8 5 .9 95.1 1 0 79.3 1 1 9 2 .7 -1 1 3 .4 9 9 0 .7 1 1 4 3 .2 -1 5 2 .5 6 4 8 .8 80.1 1 1 2 9 .8 1 2 84.5 -1 5 4 .7 1 0 3 1.3 1 2 5 2.5 -2 2 1 .2 7 0 8 .4 7 5 .8 1 149 .0 1 3 45.0 -1 9 6 .0 10 5 4.3 1 3 2 3.6 -2 6 9 .4 8 6 .3 1 1 9 8 .5 1479.4 -2 8 0 .9 1 0 9 0.5 1380.9 -2 9 0 .4 94.9 127 5.3 1530.9 -2 5 5 .6 1 1 5 3 .5 140 8.7 -2 5 5 .1 99.8 1377.0 1567.3 -1 9 0 .3 1257.7 1 4 6 0.8 -2 0 3 .1 9 5 .0 1 4 7 8.4 1 6 4 0.1 -1 6 1 .7 13 5 1.5 1515.4 - 1 6 3.9 9 3 .0 157 5.0 1 7 0 2.1 -1 2 7 .1 14 5 2.8 1 5 6 0 .1 -1 0 7 .3 17 NationalEconomlcTrends Trade and Investment Income Balances Billions of dollars 0 -1 0 -2 0 -3 0 -4 0 Exchange Rates 100 x (Deutsche mark/US$) YenAJSS 450 Index, March 1973-100 160 375 140 300 120 225 100 150 80 Goods Export Shares, 1996 Goods Import Shares, 1996 All Other 36.73% All Other 32.42% Mexico 9.27% Mexico Canada 21.85% 18for FRASER Digitized Other OECD 14.22% Other OECD 9.59% Canada 19.46% 2.32% Germany 3.83% France UK 2.35% 5.04% Germany 4.85% 3.60% National Economic Trends Trade Balance Goods Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 25 - ................................................ 0 IITVITIIIIVI Goods and Services -5 - -1 0 - -1 5 Goods •20 1 1995 1996 1997 Current Account Balance Services Trade Billions of dollars Percent change from year ago 25 - ................................................ 0 20Exports 1995 1996 1997 -5 T 1995 1996 1997 Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners Percent change at annual rate Germany United Kingdom 9— France 1995 1996 1997 19 NationalEconomicTrends Output per Hour and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization Percent change from year ago 15 10 - Nonfarm Output/Hr •5 T 72 I.....m 73 74 .....ï..... I..... I..... I..... ™...I..... I... T.......I..... I..... T..... I..... I..... I..... I.. I.... r.....T..... I..... I..... T..... i..... r 50 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 Nonfarm Compensation per Hour Percent change from year ago Output per Hour and Muitifactor Productivity, Manufacturing Percent change, annual data 7.5 ........... I« :.................« MFP V 111 -5 -01. . . . . 1. . . . T . . . . I. . . . f . . . . . rÄÄ. . i. . . . . i. . . . . ï 50 52 54 56 20 58 60 62 64 66 ï. . . . . f * . . . ï. . . . . r ® . . I. . . . . I. . . . . r .. ™ . . . ï. . . . . ï. . . . . t. . . . . r 68 70 72 74 76 78 80 82 84 86 88 90 92 94 Nationalf conomic Trends Nonfarm Output per Hour Manufacturing Output per Hour Percent change at annual rate 4 - ................................................... 6 Percent change at annual rate - .......................................................................................................................... -2 -4 -4 i ......................... r................ 1995 1997 1996 1995 1996 Selected Component Shares of National Income 51.....i..... r :a i..... r.....i..... t..... i..... t..... i *■"I.. 72 73 74 75 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 i..... i..... i..... i..... r..... i..... r.....i 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 5r 90 91 i......i..... i 92 93 94 ?..... i..... i 95 96 97 r 67 Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj) Percent change from year ago 0 -2 0 -4 0 .... I 97 21 National Economic/rends Real GDP Nominal GDP Billions of $ 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1994 1995 1996 1997 Percent chanae Year Annual rate ago 5.5 624 4.4 4 2 2.7 62 37.441 2.5 -2 .9 7 7 4 .9 638 6.1 2 8 2.3 636 5.4 9 6 2.1 7.001 6 9 3 5.7 5 .8 66 0 8.4 3 1 3.5 655 0.6 8 5 2 .9 1 9 .01 0 7 2 5 3 .8 4.6 674 2.1 8 6 2.0 670 8.8 6 7 2.4 5 8 .93 0 7576.1 4.4 690 6.8 3 7 2 .4 6 89 2.1 2 3 2 .7 3 2 .69 4 6776.1 5.3 5 .2 650 8.4 5 7 2 .5 2.9 646 7.7 2 7 1 .2 2.5 4 0 .78 0 1 8 .46 7 6 8 9 0.5 6 .9 5.9 658 7.4 4 9 4.9 3.6 6 5 1 4.9 4 5 3.0 2.8 7 4 .73 8 20 .71 6 6 9 93.1 6.1 6 .4 6 6 4 4 .8 3 6 3 .5 3.9 6 58 2.0 6 0 4.2 3.3 6 4 .59 7 1 9 .39 8 7 0 8 3 .2 5.3 5 .9 6 6 9 2.8 5 5 2.9 3.5 6 6 3 8.1 3 4 3.5 2.9 5 5 .60 4 1 7.46 0 1 2 3 4 7 1 4 9 .8 3 .8 5.5 670 0.2 2 4 0.4 2.9 6 6 4 7.3 6 6 0 .6 2 .8 5 3 .72 8 4 0 .78 0 7 2 0 4.9 3.1 4.6 6 7 1 2 .7 1 3 0 .7 1 .9 6 6 8 2.4 2 0 2.1 2.6 2 9 .86 4 7 4 .73 8 7 3 0 9.8 6 .0 4.5 6 7 7 5.7 8 2 3 .8 2 .0 6 7 4 1.3 6 4 3.6 2.4 3 3 .49 3 6 4 .5 9 7 7 3 5 0.6 2.3 3.8 6 7 8 0.1 5 3 0 .3 1.3 676 4.1 9 3 1.4 1.9 1 3.69 2 5 5 .60 4 1 2 7 4 2 6 .8 4.2 3.9 6 8 1 3.8 1 0 2 .0 1.7 681 5.1 5 3 3.0 2 .5 -3 .4 7 3 53 .72 8 7 5 45.1 6.5 4.7 6 8 9 2 . 1 16 4 .7 2.7 6 8 8 4.7 0 0 4.1 3 .0 6 .6 69 2 9 .86 4 3 4 7 6 1 6.3 3.8 4.2 692 8.0 8 4 2.1 2.2 689 2.7 4 7 0.5 2 .2 34 .13 5 3 3 .49 3 7716.1 5 .3 5.0 6 9 9 3.3 3 8 3 .8 3.1 6 9 7 5.8 9 2 4.9 3.1 1 7 .10 7 1 3.69 2 1 7 8 7 1 .0 8.3 6.0 709 4.3 7 3 5.9 4.1 704 5.7 5 1 4.1 3.4 4 8 .55 4 -3 .4 7 3 1995 1996 1997 Durables Consumption Percent chanae Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1992 $ Private Fixed Investment Percent chanae Year Annual rate ago Nonresidential Investment Billions of 1992 $ Percent chanae Annual Year rate ago Billions of 1992 $ Percent chanae Annua Year rate ago 4 2 1 9.7 9 6 2.8 4 8 8 .5 3 0 5.8 7 8 3 .4 2 7 5.7 5 5 7 .8 6 9 1.9 4 3 3 9.5 1 2 2.8 5 2 4 .0 7 5 7 .3 8 3 6 .3 5 5 6 .8 5 9 3 .6 4 5 6 .4 4 4 7 3.1 5 3 3.1 5 61 .9 7 1 7 .2 9 2 1 .0 8 3 10.1 6 5 2 .0 5 4 9.8 45 7 7.8 4 6 2.3 5 7 9 .8 2 6 3.2 97 5 .9 2 3 6.0 7 1 4 .3 0 7 9.5 4 6 9 0 .6 7 2 2.5 6 1 1 .3 9 0 5.4 104 2.1 1 7 6.8 7 6 6 .8 3 7 7.4 1 2 4 4 2 0.5 3 2 2.8 3.1 5 49.591 5 .8 8.6 8 9 2 .4 1 7 9.0 9 .4 6 2 8 .5 4 5 7.3 4 4 5 8 .7 2 1 3.5 3.2 5 5 5 .4 2 9 4 .3 6 .9 91 1.431 8.8 11.0 6 3 9 .4 8 0 7.1 9.1 3 4 4 4 8 9.3 5 7 2 .8 3 .0 5 6 3 .0 8 9 5 .6 6 .5 9 3 0 .8 1 3 8.8 1 1 .4 6 6 0 .4 7 2 13.8 1 1.4 4 5 2 3 .9 5 9 3.1 3.1 57 9 .7 6 8 1 2 .4 7.0 9 4 9 .6 8 6 8.4 8.7 6 7 9 .7 1 3 1 2 .2 10.1 8 .8 1 2 4 5 3 4.7 6 2 1.0 2 .6 5 6 6 .4 9 0 -8 .9 3.1 9 6 9 .4 9 9 8.6 8.6 7 0 4 .4 4 9 15.4 12.1 4 5 6 9.8 7 0 3.1 2 .5 5 7 6 .1 8 7 7.0 3.7 9 6 5 .6 7 6 -1 .6 6.0 7 1 0 .4 8 0 3.5 11.1 3 4 4597.341 2.4 2.4 5 8 9 .0 8 9 9 .3 4.6 9 7 9 .9 7 3 6.1 5.3 7 1 8 .9 5 4 4 .9 8 .9 4 6 0 9.4 1 0 1.1 1.9 58 7 .5 4 0 -1 .0 1.3 9 8 8 .5 3 6 3.5 4.1 7 2 3 .3 3 9 2.5 6.4 1 2 3 4 1 4 6 4 9.0 7 6 3.5 2 .5 5 9 9 .2 0 2 8 .2 5.8 1 0 1 3.2 9 2 10.4 4.5 7 4 3 .4 7 8 1 1.6 5.5 4 6 8 7.6 0 3 3.4 2 .6 61 5 .6 2 1 1 1.4 6.8 1 0 3 1 .1 0 0 7 .2 6.8 7 5 0 .5 1 2 3.8 5 .6 4 6 9 3 .4 6 8 0.5 2.1 6 1 1 .6 0 5 -2 .6 3.8 1 0 5 7.4 8 5 1 0 .6 7.9 7 8 1 .3 7 4 1 7.5 8 .7 4 7 3 2.5 4 3 3.4 2.7 6 1 9 .1 3 4 5 .0 5 .4 106 6.5 8 9 3.5 7.9 7 9 1 .9 8 4 5.5 9 .5 4 7 9 7 .9 5 0 5.6 3.2 6 4 6 .3 7 9 1 8 .8 7.9 1 0 91.901 9.8 7 .8 8 1 2 .9 5 5 1 1.0 9.3 22 Billions of 1992 $ Last qtr Year/Year ago 1 2 3 4 1992 1993 1994 1996 Change in Business Inventories 6 2 4 4.4 Billions of 1992 $ 1995 Billions of 1992 $ Percent chanae Year Annua rate ago 6 5 5 3.0 Consumption 1994 Billions of 1992 $ Final Sales Percent chanae Year Annual rate ago National EconomicTrends GDP Chain Price Index 1995 1996 1994 1 2 3 4 1995 1 2 3 4 1996 1997 1 2 3 4 1 Index Index 2.8 1 1 4 .3 3.7 1 1 1 .9 2.9 1 2 0 .5 5 .5 1 0 2 .6 1 7 2.6 1 1 8 .4 3.6 1 1 5 .2 2 .9 1 2 7 .0 5.4 1 0 4 .9 5 8 2 .3 1 2 2 .3 3.3 1 1 8 .5 2 .9 1 32 .0 4 .0 1 0 7 .5 6 5 2.5 1 2 5 .6 2.8 1 2 1 .9 2 .9 1 3 5 .0 2 .2 1 0 9 .8 7 5 2.1 1 2 9 .2 2 .8 1 2 5 .9 3 .3 1 3 7 .4 1.8 2 .3 1 2 0 .8 3.0 3 .3 1 17.1 2.8 130 .3 4 .4 1 0 0 .0 0 0 1 0 4 .1 4 9 2 .9 1994 1 2 3 4 1995 1996 1997 1 2 3 4 2.1 Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 4.3 1 0 4 .6 3 2 1.9 2.2 1 2 1 .8 3.4 3 .3 1 18.1 3 .5 3.1 1 3 1 .5 3.7 4.0 2 .4 2 .3 1 2 2 .8 3 .3 3 .3 1 1 9 .0 3.1 2 .9 132 .8 4.0 4 .0 1 0 5 .8 0 2 2.1 2 .3 1 2 3 .6 2 .6 3.1 1 1 9 .8 2.7 2.8 1 3 3 .5 2.1 3 .6 1 0 6 .6 7 6 3.3 2.4 1 2 4 .4 2.6 3 .0 12 0 .6 2.7 3.0 1 3 3 .9 1.2 2.8 1 2 5 .2 2.6 2 .9 1 3 4 .6 2.1 2.4 1 0 7 .3 0 9 2 .4 2.6 2 .8 12 1 .5 3 .0 1 0 7 .8 5 6 2.1 2.5 1 2 6 .0 2.6 2 .6 1 2 2 .4 3 .0 2.9 1 3 5 .3 2.1 1.9 1 0 8 .4 1 9 2.1 2.5 126 .9 2 .9 2 .7 1 23 .2 2 .6 2.8 1 3 6 .0 2.1 1.9 1 0 9 .0 2 7 2.3 2 .2 1 2 7 .7 2.5 2 .7 1 2 4 .4 4.0 3.2 1 3 6 .0 0.0 1.6 1 0 9 .6 1 9 2 .2 2.2 1 2 8 .8 3.5 2 .9 1 25 .5 3.6 3.3 1 3 7 .0 3.0 1.8 1 10.16 6 2 .0 2.1 1 2 9 .7 2.8 2 .9 126 .4 2 .9 3 .3 1 3 7 .7 2.1 1.8 1 1 0 .689 1.9 2.1 1 3 0 .6 2 .8 2 .9 1 2 7 .4 3.2 3 .4 1 3 8 .7 2.9 2.0 1 1 1 .434 2 .7 2 .2 1 3 1 .4 2.5 2 .9 1 2 8 .5 3 .5 3.3 1 3 8 .7 0.0 2 .0 Billions of 1992 $ 1995 1996 Percent change Annual Year rate ago 1 0 5 .2 4 8 Nonfarm Output per Hour Imports Exports 1992 1993 1994 ECI: Benefits Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index 1992 1993 1994 ECI: Wages Employment Cost Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago Percent change Annual Year rate ago Billions Of 1992 $ Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Nonfarm Compensation/Hr Percent change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent change Annual Year rate ago 6 3 9 .4 1 6 6.6 6 6 8 .9 5 9 7 .5 100 .0 3 .2 1 0 0 .0 5.2 6 5 8 .2 1 5 2 .9 7 3 0 .2 4 9 9 .2 100 .2 0.2 1 0 2 .3 2 .3 71 1.971 8.2 8 1 7 .6 3 5 1 2 .0 100 .6 0 .4 1 0 4 .3 2.0 7 7 5 .4 0 1 8 .9 8 8 2 .9 9 9 8.0 1 0 0 .9 0 .3 1 0 7 .7 3 .3 8 2 5 .8 9 8 6.5 9 3 9 .5 3 0 6.4 101 .6 0.7 1 1 1.6 3.6 6 7 7 .6 4 7 -1 .5 4.7 7 7 6 .9 6 2 8.2 1 0 .5 100 .3 -1 .6 0 .2 1 0 3 .7 2 .7 2.3 7 0 3 .1 0 8 1 5 .9 6.5 8 1 0 .4 0 4 18.4 1 1 .9 1 0 0 .5 0.8 0 .9 1 0 4 .0 1.2 2.0 7 1 9 .5 6 0 9 .7 1 1.5 8 3 1 .2 6 2 1 0 .7 1 3 .6 1 0 0 .9 1.6 0.8 1 0 4 .5 1.9 2.0 7 4 7 .5 7 3 1 6 .5 9.9 8 5 1 .9 1 9 1 0 .3 1 1 .8 1 0 1 .0 0 .4 0 .3 1 0 5 .3 3.1 2.2 7 5 2 .3 3 0 2 .6 1 1.0 8 7 4 .8 5 1 1 1 .2 1 2 .6 100 .5 -2 .0 0.2 106.1 3.1 2 .3 7 6 3 .2 2 6 5 .9 8 .6 8 8 4 .6 0 5 4 .5 9 .2 100 .8 1.2 0.3 107.1 3.8 3 .0 7 8 2 .9 5 2 1 0 .7 8 .8 8 8 4 .5 2 4 -0 .0 6.4 1 0 1 .2 1.6 0.3 108.1 3.8 3.4 8 0 3 .0 8 7 1 0 .7 7 .4 8 8 8 .0 2 3 1.6 4 .2 1 0 0 .9 -1 .2 0.1 1 0 9 .2 4.1 3.7 8 0 6 .7 1 3 1.8 7 .2 9 1 0 .7 0 7 1 0 .6 4.1 101 .5 2 .4 1.0 1 10.1 3.3 3.8 8 1 7 .8 6 4 5 .6 7.2 9 3 2 .5 5 6 9 .9 5 .4 101 .6 0.4 0.8 111.1 3.7 3 .7 1 2 3 4 81 6 . 1 0 6 -0 .9 4.2 9 5 3 .5 4 1 9 .3 7 .8 101 .5 -0 .4 0.3 1 1 2 .0 3.3 3.6 8 6 2 .9 1 1 2 5.0 7 .4 9 6 1 .3 1 4 3 .3 8 .3 1 0 1 .8 1.2 0.9 1 13.1 4.0 3.6 1 8 8 5 .2 7 8 1 0 .8 9.7 1 0 0 5.9 6 7 1 9 .9 1 0 .5 102 .5 2 .8 1.0 1 14.5 5.0 4.0 23 HationaiEconomicTrends Household Survey Employment Nonfarm Payroll Employment Thousands 1995 1996 Change 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 118488 1 2 3 4 124924 519 124711 -2 1 3 124820 109 125142 3 22 1 2 3 4 rate Nonfarm Aggregate Hours Percent chanae Percent change Year Annual ago Thousands Change Annual Year rate ago Index Percent chanae Monthly Annual Year rate rate ago 775 0.7 108591 3 36 0.3 121.0 0.7 1 2 0 25 9 1771 1.5 110707 21 1 6 1.9 124.5 2.9 123067 2808 2.3 114145 3438 3.1 129.8 4.2 1 2 4 89 9 1833 1.5 117195 3051 2.7 133.4 2.8 1 2 6 70 5 1806 1.4 119517 2322 2.0 136.4 2.2 1.7 2.4 116482 873 3.1 3.4 133.0 0.8 3.2 4.3 -0 .7 1.7 116937 455 1.6 2.9 132.9 -0.1 -0 .4 2.7 0.4 1.3 117414 478 1.6 2.4 133.6 0.6 2.3 2.5 1.0 0.6 117949 534 1.8 2.0 134.2 0.4 1.7 1.7 12 5 69 3 551 1.8 0.6 118471 522 1.8 1.7 134.3 0.1 0.4 1.0 126381 688 2.2 1.3 119248 778 2.7 2.0 136.1 1.3 5.5 2.5 127042 661 2.1 1.8 119898 649 2.2 2.1 137.0 0.7 2.7 2.5 127705 664 2.1 2.0 120452 555 1.9 2.1 138.1 0.8 3.1 2.9 1 128728 1023 3.2 2.4 121138 686 2.3 2.3 139.5 1.0 4.1 3.8 1995 May Jun 12 4 57 7 -4 4 6 -4 .2 1.3 116855 -36 -0 .4 2.8 131.9 -1 .3 -15 .0 1.8 1 2 4 53 3 -44 -0 .4 1.5 117064 209 2.2 2.7 133.0 0.8 10.5 2.5 1997 Jul 124804 271 2.6 1.7 1 17142 78 0.8 2.5 133.6 0.5 5.5 2.6 Aug 1 2 4729 -75 -0 .7 1.2 117465 323 3.4 2.4 133.4 -0.1 -1 .8 2.5 Sep 124927 198 1.9 1.1 117636 171 1.8 2.3 133.9 0.4 4.6 2.4 Oct 125235 308 3.0 1.0 117775 139 1.4 2.2 134.4 0.4 4.6 1.8 Nov Dee 125124 -1 1 1 -1.1 0.5 1 17951 176 1.8 2.0 134.3 -0.1 -0 .9 1.9 1 2 5 06 8 -56 -0 .5 0.3 1 18120 169 1.7 1.9 133.9 -0 .3 -3 .5 1.4 -0.8 1996 Jan Feb Mar 125311 2 43 2.4 0.4 118058 -62 -0 .6 1.6 132.5 -1 .0 -1 1 .8 125706 3 95 3.8 0.6 1 18550 492 5.1 1.7 135.1 2.0 26.3 1.9 126062 356 3.5 0.8 11 8804 254 2.6 1.8 135.4 0.2 2.7 2.0 Apr 126125 63 0.6 0.9 118966 162 1.6 1.8 135.1 -0 .2 -2 .6 1.0 May Jun 126428 303 2.9 1.5 1 19263 297 3.0 2.1 135.7 0.4 5.5 2.9 126590 162 1.5 1.7 119516 253 2.6 2.1 137.6 1.4 18.2 3.5 Jul 1 2 6 88 9 299 2.9 1.7 1 19691 175 1.8 2.2 136.1 -1.1 -1 2 .3 1.9 Aug 126988 99 0.9 1.8 1 19983 292 3.0 2.1 137.1 0.7 9.2 2.8 Sep 127248 2 60 2.5 1.9 120019 36 0.4 2.0 137.9 0.6 7.2 3.0 Oct 1 2 7 61 7 369 3.5 1.9 120248 229 2.3 2.1 137.2 -0 .5 -5 .9 2.1 Nov Dee 127644 27 0.3 2.0 12 0450 202 2.0 2.1 137.9 0.5 6.3 2.7 12 7 85 5 21 1 2.0 2.2 120659 209 2.1 2.1 139.1 0.9 11.0 3.9 1997 Jan Feb Mar 128580 7 25 7.0 2.6 120909 250 2.5 2.4 138.2 -0 .6 -7 .5 4.3 12 8 43 0 -15 0 -1 .4 2.2 12 1162 253 2.5 2.2 140.0 1.3 16.8 3.6 12 9 17 5 745 7.2 2.5 12 1344 182 1.8 2.1 140.2 0.1 1.7 3.5 Apr 129384 209 2.0 2.6 12 1667 323 3.2 2.3 139.6 -0 .4 -5 .0 3.3 May 12 9 63 9 255 2.4 2.5 12 1805 138 1.4 2.1 140.0 0.3 3.5 3.2 http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ 24 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis National EconomicTrends Retail Sales Unempl. Rate 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1995 1996 1 2 3 4 1 2 3 4 1 Billions of dollars Industrial Production Percent chanae Year Monthly/ Annual quarterly rate ago Index Percent chanae Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago Treasury Yields 3 -m o 10-yr 7.5 1 9 4 4 .6 0 5 4.8 100.000 3.2 3.43 7.01 6.9 2071.178 6.5 103.366 3.4 3.00 5.86 6.1 2224.913 7.4 108.5 58 5.0 4.25 7 .0 8 5.6 2326.536 4.6 1 12.109 3.3 5.49 6 .5 8 5.4 2 4 3 9 .8 2 9 4.9 1 15.198 2.8 5.01 6 .4 4 7 .4 8 5.5 5 7 3 .1 3 7 0.2 0.8 5.6 1 1 1.764 1.0 3.9 5.1 5 .7 4 5.6 5 7 8 .6 8 0 1.0 3.9 5.2 1 1 1.561 -0 .2 -0 .7 3.3 5.60 6 .6 2 5.7 5 8 5 .1 4 6 1.1 4.5 4.5 1 12.441 0.8 3.2 3.0 5 .37 6.32 5.6 5 8 9 .5 7 3 0.8 3.1 3.1 1 12.671 0.2 0.8 1.8 5.26 5.89 5.6 6 0 0 .4 8 4 1.9 7.6 4.8 1 13.128 0 .4 1.6 1.2 4 .9 3 5.91 5.4 6 0 9 .3 4 5 1.5 6.0 5.3 1 14.844 1.5 6.2 2.9 5 .02 6 .7 2 5.3 61 1.040 0.3 1.1 4.4 1 15.774 0.8 3 .3 3.0 5 .1 0 6 .78 5.3 6 1 8 .9 6 0 1.3 5.3 5.0 1 17.048 1.1 4.5 3.9 4 .9 8 6 .3 4 5.3 6 3 5 .5 9 7 2.7 1 1.2 5.8 1 18.325 1.1 4.4 4.6 5.06 6.56 1995 May Jun 5.6 1 9 3 .0 7 4 1.0 13.2 5.7 1 1 1.523 0.1 1.1 3.2 5.67 6 .6 3 5.6 19 4 .5 1 2 0.7 9.3 5.5 1 1 1.739 0.2 2.3 2.9 5.47 6 .1 7 Jul Aug Sep 5.7 1 9 4 .3 1 5 -0.1 -1 .2 5.3 1 1 1.716 -0 .0 -0 .2 2.4 5.42 6 .2 8 5.7 1 9 5 .7 5 2 0.7 9.2 4.5 1 12.603 0.8 10.0 3.1 5 .4 0 6.49 5.7 1 9 5.0 79 -0 .3 -4 .0 3.8 1 13.003 0.4 4.3 3.4 5 .2 8 6 .2 0 Oct Nov Dec 5.5 1 9 4 .8 6 5 -0.1 -1 .3 2.3 1 12.522 -0 .4 -5 .0 2.3 5 .28 6 .0 4 5.6 19 6 .7 0 2 0.9 1 1.9 3.1 1 12.704 0.2 2.0 1.9 5 .36 5 .9 3 5.6 19 8 .0 0 6 0.7 8.3 3.8 1 12.788 0.1 0.9 1.1 5.1 4 5.71 -0.1 5 .6 5 1997 1996 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 5.7 1 9 7 .7 1 4 -1 .8 2.6 1 12.361 -0 .4 -4 .4 0 .4 5.00 5.5 2 0 1 .0 8 5 1.7 22.5 6.1 1 13.782 1.3 16.3 1.9 4.83 5.81 5.5 2 0 1 .6 8 5 0.3 3.6 5.6 113.241 -0 .5 -5 .6 1.4 4.96 6 .2 7 5.5 2 0 2 .4 9 6 0.4 4.9 6.0 1 14.284 0.9 1 1.6 2.6 4.95 6.51 5.5 2 0 4 .0 6 0 0.8 9.7 5.7 1 14.782 0.4 5 .4 2.9 5.02 6 .7 4 5.3 2 0 2 .7 8 9 -0 .6 -7 .2 4.3 1 15.466 0.6 7 .4 3.3 5.09 6.91 5.4 203.291 0.2 3.0 4.6 1 15.495 0.0 0.3 3.4 5.15 6.8 7 5.2 2 0 3 .0 3 6 -0.1 -1 .5 3.7 1 15.848 0.3 3.7 2.9 5 .0 5 6 .6 4 5.2 2 0 4 .7 1 3 0.8 10.4 4.9 1 15.978 0.1 1.4 2.6 5.09 6.8 3 6.5 3 Oct Nov Dec 5.2 2 0 6 .2 7 7 0.8 9.6 5.9 1 16.231 0.2 2.6 3.3 4.99 5.3 20 5 .7 8 9 -0 .2 -2 .8 4.6 1 17.216 0.8 10.7 4.0 5.03 6.2 0 5.3 2 0 6 .8 9 4 0.5 6.6 4.5 1 17.697 0.4 5.0 4.4 4.91 6 .30 1997 Jan Feb Mar 5.4 2 1 0 .2 3 3 1.6 21.2 6.3 1 17.765 0.1 0.7 4.8 5.03 6 .5 8 5.3 2 1 3 .0 2 2 1.3 17.1 5.9 1 18.366 0.5 6.3 4.0 5.01 6 .4 2 5.2 2 1 2 .3 4 2 -0 .3 -3 .8 5.3 1 18.844 0.4 5.0 4.9 5.14 6.69 Apr May 4.9 2 1 0 .4 4 0 -0 .9 -10.2 3.9 1 19.245 0.3 4.1 4.3 5 .1 6 6.89 4.8 2 1 0 .1 5 5 -0.1 -1 .6 3.0 1 19.737 0.4 5.1 4.3 5 .0 5 6.71 25 NationalEconomicTrends consumer rrice moex rroaucer rrice maex less Food and Energy Consumer Price Index Percent chanae Monthly/ Annual Year index quarterly rate ago Year to date Percent chanae Monthly/ Annual Year Index quarterly rate ago Finished Goods Year to date Index Percent chanae Monthly/ Annual Year quarterly rate ago 123.2 124.7 125.6 127.9 131.3 1.2 1.2 0.7 1.9 2.6 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 140.4 144.6 148.3 152.5 157.0 1 2 3 4 151.0 152.1 152.9 153.9 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.6 2.8 3.1 2.1 2.5 2.9 3.0 2.6 2.6 2.8 3.0 2.7 2.6 159.6 161.0 162.0 163.1 0.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 3.3 3.4 2.6 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.0 127.1 127.6 128.0 129.0 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.7 3.0 1.7 1.3 2.9 1.7 2.0 1.6 2.2 1996 1 2 3 4 155.1 156.4 157.5 158.8 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 3.3 3.4 2.7 3.3 2.8 2.8 3.0 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.2 164.2 165.3 166.3 167.4 0.7 0.6 0.6 0.6 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.9 2.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.6 129.9 130.9 131.6 132.9 0.7 0.7 0.6 1.0 3.0 2.9 2.3 3.9 2.2 2.5 2.8 3.0 1997 1 159.7 0.6 2.4 2.9 2.4 168.3 0.6 2.2 2.5 2.2 132.6 -0.2 -0.7 2.1 1995 May Jun 152.1 152.5 0.2 0.3 2.4 3.2 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 161.0 161.3 0.2 0.2 3.0 2.3 3.1 2.9 3.7 3.4 127.7 127.7 0.2 0.0 1.9 0.0 2.2 2.0 Jul Aug Sep 152.6 153.0 153.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.8 3.2 1.6 2.8 2.6 2.5 2.6 2.7 2.6 161.6 162.0 162.4 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.3 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 3.0 3.3 3.2 3.2 127.9 127.9 128.3 0.2 0.0 0.3 1.9 0.0 3.8 1.8 1.3 1.8 Oct Nov Dec 153.7 153.8 154.1 0.3 0.1 0.2 4.0 0.8 2.4 2.7 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.5 2.5 162.9 163.1 163.4 0.3 0.1 0.2 3.8 1.5 2.2 3.1 3.0 3.0 3.3 3.1 3.0 128.5 128.8 129.6 0.2 0.2 0.6 1.9 2.8 7.7 2.4 2.1 2.2 1996 Jan Feb Mar 154.7 155.1 155.6 0.4 0.3 0.3 4.8 3.1 3.9 2.7 2.7 2.8 4.8 4.0 4.0 163.8 164.2 164.6 0.2 0.2 0.2 3.0 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 3.0 3.0 3.0 129.7 129.7 130.4 0.1 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.0 6.7 2.2 2.0 2.4 Apr May Jun 156.1 0.3 0.3 0.1 3.9 3.1 1.5 2.8 2.9 2.8 3.9 164.9 0.2 2.8 3.8 3.4 0.2 0.2 2.7 2.7 2.8 2.7 130.6 130.8 131.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 1.9 165.3 165.6 2.2 3.0 2.2 2.7 156.5 156.7 1.9 3.7 2.4 2.4 2.7 Jul Aug Sep 157.1 157.4 157.9 0.3 0.2 0.3 3.1 2.3 3.9 2.9 2.9 3.1 3.4 3.2 3.3 166.0 166.2 166.7 0.2 0.1 0.3 2.9 1.5 3.7 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.7 131.2 131.6 132.0 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 3.7 3.7 2.6 2.9 2.9 Oct Nov Dec 158.3 158.8 159.2 0.3 0.3 0.3 3.1 3.9 3.1 3.0 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.3 167.0 167.4 167.7 0.2 0.2 0.2 2.2 2.9 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.6 132.5 132.7 133.4 0.4 0.2 0.5 4.6 1.8 6.5 3.1 3.0 2.9 1997 Jan Feb Mar 159.4 159.8 159.9 0.1 0.3 0.1 1.5 3.1 0.8 3.0 3.0 2.8 1.5 2.3 1.8 167.9 168.3 168.7 0.1 0.2 0.2 1.4 2.9 2.9 2.5 2.5 2.5 1.4 2.2 2.4 133.0 132.5 132.4 -0.3 -0.4 -0. 1 -3.5 -4.4 -0.9 2.5 2.2 1.5 Apr May 160.0 160.1 0.1 0.1 0.8 0.8 2.5 2.3 1.5 1.4 169.2 169.5 0.3 0.2 3.6 2.1 2.6 2.5 2.7 2.6 131.6 131.2 -0.6 -0.3 -7.0 -3.6 0.8 0.3 1995 26 3.7 3.3 2.8 3.0 2.7 147.5 152.4 156.7 161.4 165.8 3.0 3.0 2.6 2.8 2.9 National EconomicTrends Notes Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change in business inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP growth rates are released during the first, second, and third months o f the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation o f more com plete information. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliv eries, inventories, and employment. The National Association o f Pur chasing Management (NAPM) surveys over 300 firms in 20 manufac turing industries, weighting responses by industry share of GDP. Ag gregate and average weekly hours are paid hours o f production and nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal (current-dollar) inventory and sales data. Page 6: The contribution of a component X, to the overall GDP growth rate in quarter t is 100 x [(1 + (Xt - X,.i)/GDPt.i)4 - 1], The sign is changed for imports. This calculation forces components to add up to the GDP growth rate before compounding and does not exactly match Survey o f Current Business, Table 8.2. The residual line is calculated using the finest level o f detail in the table. Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity. Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. The total return on the Standard and Poor's 500 is dividends as a percent of the value o f the index plus the percent change in the index. Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices for West Texas intermediate crude (Wall Street Journal). Consumer price index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers pri vate nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the non farm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus benefits. Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It ex cludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households pro vides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. New population controls introduced in January 1997 affect levels and growth rates of household survey employment, labor force and population. The unemployment rate and other ratios are minimally affected. 90 percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncer tainty due to sample size. The household survey was changed in Janu ary 1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term compari sons around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on page 10. Other changes in the survey are detailed in Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment and Earnings, Appendix A. Pages 12,13: Debt service is an estimate of scheduled interest and principal payments on outstanding debt. The Michigan consumer sentiment index shows changes in a summary measure o f consumers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected financial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative sample o f U.S. households. Pages 14,15: Overall gross saving includes government saving, which is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption (see notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S. investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross domestic investment and saving. Pages 16,17: Government consumption and investment is current expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption (depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the National Income and Product Accounts (NIPA). The unified federal budget deficit differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes trans actions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government investment and include consumption of government capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and receipts on these pages are from the NIP As, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal y e ar starts on October 1. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings o f the Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings o f the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays. Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments basis) is the difference between exports and imports o f goods (merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details. The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current ac count balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries. Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of infla tion. Multifactor productivity estimates changes in output that do not correspond to changes in quantities of labor, capital, or intermediate inputs. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital con sumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates o f economic depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest. Sources Bureau o f Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept, o f Commerce National income and product accounts, international trade and i nvestment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales Census Bureau, U.S. Dept, o f Commerce Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing starts, exports and imports by country Bureau o f Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept, o f Labor All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensa tion per hour, total factor productivity United States Department o f Treasury Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit Federal Reserve Board Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capac ity utilization, consumer debt service The Survey Research Center, The University o f Michigan Consumer sentiment index The Conference Board Help-wanted advertising index Organization fo r Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED) 27 Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Post Office Box 442 St. Louis, Missouri 63166 Subscriber: Please include address label with subscription inquiries or address changes.