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July 1997

The Tortoise Revises
the Hare
Since the last issue of National Economic Trends,
payroll or establishment survey employment— one of the
most closely watched economic statistics— has under­
gone its annual benchmark revisions. As the chart
shows, the most recent revision (57,000) was trivial, but
the previous revision (542,000) amounted to more than
one-sixth of the employment growth between March
1994 and March 1995. Given the prominence of the
payroll data, it is important to know why large discrepan­
cies sometimes arise.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) measures
employment in three ways. First, it surveys households
and asks whether the residents are employed. Second, it
surveys employers (establishments) and asks how many
people they have on their payrolls. Third, it assembles
data from unemployment insurance (UI) tax forms that
must be sent to state UI offices by every employer cov­
ered by the UI program. The process of benchmarking is
intended to reconcile the two employer-based estimates
by using the slow— but very accurate— UI employment
“tortoise” (ES-202 data) to revise the quickly available—
but relatively error-prone— establishment survey “hare.”
Paradoxically, it is mostly the tortoise’s fault that the
hare is inaccurate. BLS decides which establishments to
survey based on the UI records, but drawing a sample in
this way means that the payroll survey will miss many
new employers whose paperwork has not yet found its
way into the UI records. Without adjustment, therefore,
the payroll employment estimates will be too low.
BLS handles this problem by using a statistical model
and other information to estimate a “bias adjustment fac­
tor” for each month. The bias adjustment is essentially
an estimate of how many jobs are created each month in
new establishments but missed by the sampling proce­
dure. Bias adjustment factors are not necessary with the

data coming from UI records because, when they are
finally complete, they contain data from every employer
in the UI system.
Each spring, the previous year’s March payroll
employment estimates are revised to be consistent with
that month’s UI data, as well as various other data on
employers who are not covered by UI reporting require­
ments. The chart shows the effects of the 1995 and 1996
benchmarks. For most industries, one-twelfth of the
March revision is added to not seasonally adjusted
(NSA) estimates for the previous April, two-twelfths to
May, and so on. Therefore, for large benchmark revi­
sions like March 1995, the overall revisions between
benchmarks (April 1994 to February 1995) appear
wedge-shaped. Because the March 1996 revision was so
small, the exceptions to this procedure (notably the “eat­
ing and drinking places” industry) dominate the revi­
sions, so no wedge shape is visible in the chart between
April 1995 and February 1996.
Starting with April 1996 estimates, BLS incorporated
new information into the bias adjustments for employment
estimates (these months will get their final revisions a
year from now). The net effect of all of the revisions
was to lower the February 1997 NSA estimate by 54,000.
— Joe Ritter

Payroll Employment Benchmark Revisions
March 1995 and March 1996
800
I March 1995 Benchmark
I March 1996 Benchmark
600

542

w 400

¡1 200
0
-200

I

I ' M

-------------------------------------------------------------1--------------------------------------------

1994

1995

Data are not seasonally adjusted

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System



' I ' l l

1997

Tabi eofCon ten ts
Page
3

Economy at a glance

4

Output and growth

7

Interest rates

8

Inflation and prices

10

Labor markets

12

Consumer spending

14

Investment spending

16

Government revenues, spending, and debt

18

International trade

20

Productivity and profits

22

Quick reference tables

27

Notes and sources

Conventions used in this publication:
1. Charts and tables contain data that was current on June 30, 1997.
2. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
3. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from
the same month or quarter in the previous year. The percent change at annual rate shows what the growth rate
would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The
percent change at annual rate of X between the previous quarter t-1 and the current quarter t is:

For monthly data replace 4 with 12.
4. All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA.

National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573.
Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442
or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at
(314) 621-1824 or Internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred.




HationaìEconomicTrends
Real GDP Growth

Consumer Price Index

Percent change at annual rate

Percent change
0.5 - ...................

6

-

.....................................................................................

0.4

0 .3 -

0.2

—

0.1

—

0 .0 ^
1994

1995

1996

1994

1997

Industrial Production

Interest Rates

Percent change
1.8 - ...................................................................

Percent

1995

1996

1997

1995

1996

1997

1.2 —

0 .6

-

IllL

0.0

'I III

Jj

°-6 i ........................... I........................... I........................... r..................
1994
1995
1996
1997

2T

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Unemployment Rate

Thousands
600 -

1994

Percent of labor force
7.0 - ................................

1994




1995

1996

1997

4 5 i ........................... I........................... I........................... I..................
1994
1995
1996
1997

3

National EconomicTrends
Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent change from year ago

0

industrial Production and Purchasing Managers’ (NAPM) Indexes
Percent change from year ago

Index
-

-6
-1 2
-1 8

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours
Percent change from year ago

8
4
0
-4
-8

Real Change in Business Inventories
Percent of GDP

4 for FRASER
Digitized


1

7A

National Economic!rends
Real Final Sales and GDP

Real GDP Revisions

Percent change at annual rate
6 - ................................................................................................

Percent change at annual rate
I
i

GDP (bar)

6—

I Advance
i Preliminary
■ Final

42
01997

96:1

Index

Percent change
-

96:2

96:3

I

96:4

97:1

Nominal Gross Domestic Product

industrial Production and NAPM Index
1.8

i

-

....................................

68

Percent change at annual rate
10 - ..................................................................................................................................

1995

1996

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours

Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours

Percent change
4 - ..................

Hours
3 5 .0 -

1997

33.5 T
1995

1996

1997

Real Change in Business Inventories
Billions of 1992 dollars
80 - .................................

Manufacturing and trade
1.46 -

1.31
1995




1996

1997

1995

1996

1997

5

National EconomicTrends

Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth
Percent change at annual rate
10-

-4

95Q2

95Q4

95Q3

Consumption
I

Imports

96Q2

96Q1

Exports
1 :

96Q4

96Q3

9701
Real GDP

I______ I Government

i Inventories

Investment

Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate
1995_ _
2nd

3rd

4th

1996
1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1997
1st

Real GDP

0 .7 5

3.81

0.26

2.00

4.68

2 .1 0

3 .8 2

5.91

Final Sales

2.1 1

3 .5 6

1 .3 5

3 .0 4

4.15

0 .4 7

4.89

4 .0 6

0 .22

-1 .1 6

-1 .0 1

0 .6 0

1.60

-0 .9 8

1.81

1.65

0.71

2.36

2 .2 8

0 .3 4

2 .2 8

3 .79
1 .4 6

Change in Inventory
Consumption
Fixed Investment

-1 .4 2
2.1 1
-0 .2 3

0 .85

0.51

1 .4 7

1.05

1.54

0 .5 3

0 .3 6

0 .5 1

0 .2 6

1 .1 9

0.41

1.80

0 .6 1

1 .2 0

-0 .5 6

0 .3 4

0 .2 4

0.28

0.61

-0 .2 2

-0 .0 7

0 .2 6

0 .1 5

-0 .1 1

-0 .8 1

0.30

1 .3 9

-0 .1 2

-0 .1 6

0 .0 3

-0 .1 0

-0 .4 1

-0 .9 6

0.40

0 .6 2

-0 .2 4

-0 .3 7

-0 .2 2

0 .2 5

0 .3 1

0 .1 7

-0 .1 1

0 .7 6

0 .1 3

0 .2 2

0 .2 5

Net Exports

0 .0 7

1.19

0.99

-1 .1 2

-0 .6 3

-1 .3 1

2 .2 7

-1 .2 7

Exports

0 .6 5

1.18

1 .1 9

0.21

0 .6 6

-0 .1 0

2 .7 3

1.29

Imports

-0 .5 8

0.0 0

-0 .2 1

-1 .3 3

-1 .2 8

-1 .2 1

-0 .4 5

-2 .5 3

0 .0 6

-0 .0 2

0 .0 3

0 .0 2

-0 .0 3

0.01

-0 .1 5

0 .0 3

Nonresidential
Residential
Government

Federal
State and Local

Residual

6 for FRASER
Digitized


National EconomicTrends
Interest Rates
Percent

Treasury Yield Curve
Percent
7.5 - .....................................

4-5

3m

1y

2y

5y

7y

10y

^

30y

Total Return on Standard and Poor’s 500
Percent change from year ago
75 - mmm .......




7

National Economicirends
GDP Chain Price Index
Percent change from year ago

Consumer Price Index
Percent change from year ago

Percent change from year ago

Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour
Percent change from year ago

8 for FRASER
Digitized


National EconomicTrends
GDP Chain Price Index

Crude Oil Price

Percent change at annual rate
4 - ..................................................

Dollars per barrel
28 - ..................... -...

3-

2-

llllllll
1996

1995

1997

12 -T.................T................. T................. T................. T.................I.................I
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997

Consumer Price Index
Percent change at annual rate
4 - ..................................................

Percent change
0.5 - ....................
Excl. Food & Energy
0.4 —
CPI (bar)
0.3 -

0.2

-

0.1

-

yJ A
\

0.0
1995

1996

1997

1997

1996

Unit Labor Cost

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods

Percent change at annual rate

Percent change
0.65 -

1995

1995

1996

1997

“6T

1995

(

Employment Cost Index

Compensation per Hour

Percent change from year ago

Percent change at annual rate

1996

1

1997

8
Benefits

6 - \ .........




1995

1996

1997

9

National EconomicTrends
Employment
Percent change from year ago

-

2

-

Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates
Percent of labor force

Percent of population

Duration of Unemployment
Percent of labor force
4.50

Weeks
16

3.75

14

3.00

12

2.25

10

1.50

8

0.75

6

0.00

4

10 for FRASER
Digitized


National Economicïïends
Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change In Manufacturing Payrolls

Thousands
600 - ....................................................

Thousands
60 - .................................................................

500 - ....................................................
400 - ....................................................

l,l III! 1.1
-1 0 0 n.................................. I.................................. I.....................
1995
1996
1997

60 1 .................................. 1.................................. 1....................
1995
1996
1997

Change in Household Employment

Labor Force and Population

Thousands
1250 - ..................................................................

Percent change from year ago
2.5 - ........-..........................................

1000

-

750 -

-2 5 0 -

_50° 1....................... 1....................... r..............
1995

1996

00 1

1997

I
1992

I
1993

I
1994

Unemployment Rate

Help-Wanted Advertising

Percent

Index

6.0

-

I
1995

I
1996

1997

Percent

.............................................................................................................................................................................

1995




1996

1997

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

11

Nat iona IEconomic Tren ds
Percent change from year ago, quarterly data

12

4

0
-4

Real Consumption
Percent change from year ago
30 - ............. j w r ....................................

| g ..............

Percent change from year ago
................................................................mi?.............................................................. -

21

Durables

o—

w

—1 0 —

/ H

-------------------------- t F

\/

--------------------------------------- (— »

\ /

— —7

v ------------- v

-----------------------------------------------

0

\/
IIS

'-1 <,-*
*
WM.
- 2 0 -I....... I...... ....................r........T ........I........T................ T........I... -...T........I........I........I........T....... 1........ 1....... 1 ....f ...... I ........I....... I ........I........I

I........r

-1 4

Retail Sales
Percent change from year ago of quarterly average
16
12

8
4

0
-4

Debt Service as Percent of Disposable Income
Percent

Digitized
12 for FRASER


Percent

National Economicïïends
Real Disposable Income

Personal Saving Rate

Percent change

Percent

1 . Ill lui 1 1Il■ li 1ll.il.i
■2 -[.....................................I ................................... I.......................
'
1995
1996
1997

1992

1 1993

' 1994

1 1995

1 1996

1 1997

Real Consumption

Real Consumption

Percent change

Percent change

8

2_I

1.6 -

- ..............................................................

..............................................................

Retail Sales

Real Durables Consumption and Vehicle Sales

Percent change
2.25 -

Percent change
9-

Millions of
ol vehicles, annual rate
- 16.0
Autos and light trucks

-1.5 0
1997

1996

1995

Consumer Sentiment (U. of Michigan)

Real Durables Consumption

Index

Percent change
30 - ....................

110 —

601

1992

1 1993




1 1994

'

1995

[

1996

1 1997

■20 T

1995

'

1996

1

1997

13

National EconomicTrends
Real Investment
Percent of GDP

Real Private Fixed Investment
Percent change from year ago

Real Nonresidential and Producers Durable Equipment Investment
Percent change from year ago
........ mm

25 -

■1 5 1 .............[.......... I

72

73

1............ 1

T '

74

75

76

I ............. I ............ P

77

Real Residential Investment
Percent change from year ago

Digitized
14 for FRASER


78

79

..... Ì ....... "' 1 ..........

80

81

82

T ............. I ............ I ............ I .............I .............T .............I .............I ......“ T

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

.......... 1............. 1.............1.............1............ 1 ............1

91

92

93

94

95

96

I

97

National EconomicTrends
Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment
Percent of GDP

Percent of GDP

..... .
-

6

-

4

............. -

2

-

..... r
97

Real Private Fixed Investment

Nondefense Capital Goods Orders

Percent change at annual rate
12 - .....................................................................................................

Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft
30-

-10

1995

1996

1997

8

0
-2
-4

-

2 0 -,

1992

1 1993

1 1994

1 1995

Real Equipment Investment

RealNonresidential Investment

Percent change at annual rate
25 - .....................................................

Percent change at annual rate
20 - ......................................................................................................................

1 1996

'

1997

-5 T
1995

1996

1997

Real Residential Investment

Housing Starts

Percent change at annual rate
2 0 - ......................................................

Millions, annual rate
1.6 - .....................................................




15

National EconomicTrends
Govt. Consumption and Investment

Government Receipts and Outlays

Billions of 1992 dollars
1400 * ....

Percent of GDP

2 0 0 1 .......r ~ ...i........i....... f
72 74 76 78 80

T®
82

i
84

i
86

i
88

i
90

i
92

i.......i.......i
94 96 98

Federal Outlays, 1994

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

Federal Receipts, 1994

Defense
22.61%

Personal Income
39.54%

Net Interest
12.85%

Social

Other
7.94%

Corp. Profit
11.95%

Medicare
10.46%
Other
28.59%

Medicaid
5.31%

State and Local Outlays, 1994
Education
37.66%

Social Insurance
40.57%

State and Local Receipts, 1994
Corp. Profit
3.27%

Personal

Income

Medical Care
17.32%

Other
9.69%
Other
19.13%

Transportation
6.80%

16for FRASER
Digitized


Social
Safety
10.44%

7.36%

Federal Grants
20.70%

94

96

98

National Economicïïends
Gross Federal Debt

Federal Deficit

Forcent of GDP
70-

Percent of GDP

2 0 1 .............f

72

74

...... ( ..............ì .............. r

76

78

80

....... r

v ...........1..............1.............. i .............. i

82

84

86

88

90

..... 1 .............. 1 .............. 1

92

94

72

96

74

76

78

80

82

Change in Gross Federal Debt

Federal Deficit, Unified Basis

Percent of GDP

Billions of dollars, fiscal years

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

84

86

88

90

92

94

96

Government Budgets
Billions of dollars

Unified Budget

National Income Accounts

Fiscal Years

Calendar Years

Federal

State and Local
Receipts Expenditures

Surplus or
Deticit(-)

Receipts

Expenditures

Federal
Surplus or
Deticit(-)

Receipts

Outlays

Surplus or
Deficit(-)

1980
1981
1982
1983
1984

3 6 1 .4

3 0 7 .0

5 4 .4

5 6 1 .5

6 2 2 .5

-6 1 .0

5 1 7 .1

3 9 0 .8

3 3 5 .4

5 5 .4

6 4 9 .3

7 0 7 .1

-5 7 .8

5 9 9 .3

6 7 8 .2

-7 9 .0

4 0 9 .0

3 5 7 .7

5 1 .3

6 4 6 .4

7 8 1 .0

-1 3 4 .6

6 1 7 .8

7 4 5 .8

-1 2 8 .0

4 4 3 .6

3 7 8 .8

64.8

6 7 1 .9

8 4 6 .3

-1 7 4 .4

6 0 0 .6

8 0 8 .4

-2 0 7 .8

4 9 2 .0

4 0 5 .1

8 6.9

7 4 6 .9

9 0 2 .9

-1 5 6 .0

6 6 6 .5

8 5 1 .8

-1 8 5 .4

1985
1986
1987
1988
1989

5 2 8 .7

4 3 7 .8

9 0.9

81 1.3

9 7 4 .2

-1 6 2 .9

7 3 4 .1

9 4 6 .4

-2 1 2 .3

5 7 0 .6

4 7 5 .7

94.9

8 5 0 .1

1027.6

-1 7 7 .5

7 6 9 .1

9 9 0 .3

-2 2 1 .2

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994

7 2 8 .9
7 8 4 .2
8 4 4 .3

7 5 8 .0

8 9 7 .1

8 0 2 .2

9 4 6 .4

8 4 6 .6

1995
1996

9 9 6 .1

9 0 1 .1

1 0 4 4.0

9 5 1 .0

5 9 0 .9

-7 3 .8

5 9 4 .9

51 1.1

8 3.8

9 3 7 .4

1 0 66.3

-1 2 8 .9

854 .1

1 0 0 3.9

-1 4 9 .8

6 3 1 .4

5 4 5 .5

8 5.9

9 9 7 .2

1 1 1 8 .5

-1 2 1 .3

9 0 9 .0

1 0 6 4 .1

-1 5 5 .2

6 8 1 .0

5 8 5 .9

95.1

1 0 79.3

1 1 9 2 .7

-1 1 3 .4

9 9 0 .7

1 1 4 3 .2

-1 5 2 .5

6 4 8 .8

80.1

1 1 2 9 .8

1 2 84.5

-1 5 4 .7

1 0 3 1.3

1 2 5 2.5

-2 2 1 .2

7 0 8 .4

7 5 .8

1 149 .0

1 3 45.0

-1 9 6 .0

10 5 4.3

1 3 2 3.6

-2 6 9 .4

8 6 .3

1 1 9 8 .5

1479.4

-2 8 0 .9

1 0 9 0.5

1380.9

-2 9 0 .4

94.9

127 5.3

1530.9

-2 5 5 .6

1 1 5 3 .5

140 8.7

-2 5 5 .1

99.8

1377.0

1567.3

-1 9 0 .3

1257.7

1 4 6 0.8

-2 0 3 .1

9 5 .0

1 4 7 8.4

1 6 4 0.1

-1 6 1 .7

13 5 1.5

1515.4

- 1 6 3.9

9 3 .0

157 5.0

1 7 0 2.1

-1 2 7 .1

14 5 2.8

1 5 6 0 .1

-1 0 7 .3




17

NationalEconomlcTrends
Trade and Investment Income Balances
Billions of dollars

0

-1 0

-2 0

-3 0

-4 0

Exchange Rates

100 x (Deutsche mark/US$)
YenAJSS
450

Index, March 1973-100

160

375

140

300

120

225

100

150

80

Goods Export Shares, 1996

Goods Import Shares, 1996
All Other
36.73%

All Other
32.42%

Mexico
9.27%

Mexico

Canada
21.85%

18for FRASER
Digitized


Other OECD
14.22%

Other OECD
9.59%

Canada
19.46%

2.32%

Germany
3.83%

France
UK 2.35%
5.04%

Germany
4.85%
3.60%

National Economic Trends
Trade Balance

Goods Trade

Billions of dollars

Percent change from year ago
25 - ................................................

0

IITVITIIIIVI
Goods and Services

-5 -

-1 0

-

-1 5 Goods
•20 1

1995

1996

1997

Current Account Balance

Services Trade

Billions of dollars

Percent change from year ago
25 - ................................................

0

20Exports

1995

1996

1997

-5 T

1995

1996

1997

Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners
Percent change at annual rate

Germany

United Kingdom
9—

France

1995




1996

1997

19

NationalEconomicTrends
Output per Hour and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization
Percent change from year ago
15

10

-

Nonfarm Output/Hr

•5 T

72

I.....m
73

74

.....ï..... I..... I..... I..... ™...I..... I... T.......I..... I..... T..... I..... I..... I..... I.. I.... r.....T..... I..... I..... T..... i..... r 50
75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

97

Nonfarm Compensation per Hour
Percent change from year ago

Output per Hour and Muitifactor Productivity, Manufacturing
Percent change, annual data
7.5 ........... I« :.................«

MFP

V 111

-5 -01. . . . . 1. . . . T . . . . I. . . . f . . . . . rÄÄ. . i. . . . . i. . . . . ï
50

52

54

56


20


58

60

62

64

66

ï. . . . . f * . . . ï. . . . . r ® . . I. . . . . I. . . . . r .. ™ . . . ï. . . . . ï. . . . . t. . . . . r
68

70

72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

Nationalf conomic Trends
Nonfarm Output per Hour

Manufacturing Output per Hour

Percent change at annual rate
4 - ...................................................

6

Percent change at annual rate
-

..........................................................................................................................

-2
-4

-4 i ......................... r................
1995

1997

1996

1995

1996

Selected Component Shares of National Income

51.....i..... r :a i..... r.....i..... t..... i..... t..... i *■"I..
72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

i..... i..... i..... i..... r..... i..... r.....i
83

84

85

86

87

88

89

5r

90

91

i......i..... i
92

93

94

?..... i..... i
95

96

97

r 67

Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj)
Percent change from year ago

0
-2 0

-4 0




.... I
97

21

National Economic/rends
Real GDP

Nominal GDP
Billions
of $
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1994

1995

1996

1997

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago
5.5

624 4.4 4 2

2.7

62 37.441

2.5

-2 .9 7 7

4 .9

638 6.1 2 8

2.3

636 5.4 9 6

2.1

7.001

6 9 3 5.7

5 .8

66 0 8.4 3 1

3.5

655 0.6 8 5

2 .9

1 9 .01 0

7 2 5 3 .8

4.6

674 2.1 8 6

2.0

670 8.8 6 7

2.4

5 8 .93 0

7576.1

4.4

690 6.8 3 7

2 .4

6 89 2.1 2 3

2 .7

3 2 .69 4

6776.1

5.3

5 .2

650 8.4 5 7

2 .5

2.9

646 7.7 2 7

1 .2

2.5

4 0 .78 0

1 8 .46 7

6 8 9 0.5

6 .9

5.9

658 7.4 4 9

4.9

3.6

6 5 1 4.9 4 5

3.0

2.8

7 4 .73 8

20 .71 6

6 9 93.1

6.1

6 .4

6 6 4 4 .8 3 6

3 .5

3.9

6 58 2.0 6 0

4.2

3.3

6 4 .59 7

1 9 .39 8

7 0 8 3 .2

5.3

5 .9

6 6 9 2.8 5 5

2.9

3.5

6 6 3 8.1 3 4

3.5

2.9

5 5 .60 4

1 7.46 0

1
2
3
4

7 1 4 9 .8

3 .8

5.5

670 0.2 2 4

0.4

2.9

6 6 4 7.3 6 6

0 .6

2 .8

5 3 .72 8

4 0 .78 0

7 2 0 4.9

3.1

4.6

6 7 1 2 .7 1 3

0 .7

1 .9

6 6 8 2.4 2 0

2.1

2.6

2 9 .86 4

7 4 .73 8

7 3 0 9.8

6 .0

4.5

6 7 7 5.7 8 2

3 .8

2 .0

6 7 4 1.3 6 4

3.6

2.4

3 3 .49 3

6 4 .5 9 7

7 3 5 0.6

2.3

3.8

6 7 8 0.1 5 3

0 .3

1.3

676 4.1 9 3

1.4

1.9

1 3.69 2

5 5 .60 4

1
2

7 4 2 6 .8

4.2

3.9

6 8 1 3.8 1 0

2 .0

1.7

681 5.1 5 3

3.0

2 .5

-3 .4 7 3

53 .72 8

7 5 45.1

6.5

4.7

6 8 9 2 . 1 16

4 .7

2.7

6 8 8 4.7 0 0

4.1

3 .0

6 .6 69

2 9 .86 4

3
4

7 6 1 6.3

3.8

4.2

692 8.0 8 4

2.1

2.2

689 2.7 4 7

0.5

2 .2

34 .13 5

3 3 .49 3

7716.1

5 .3

5.0

6 9 9 3.3 3 8

3 .8

3.1

6 9 7 5.8 9 2

4.9

3.1

1 7 .10 7

1 3.69 2

1

7 8 7 1 .0

8.3

6.0

709 4.3 7 3

5.9

4.1

704 5.7 5 1

4.1

3.4

4 8 .55 4

-3 .4 7 3

1995
1996

1997

Durables Consumption

Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Billions
of 1992 $

Private Fixed Investment

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago

Nonresidential Investment

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Annua
Year
rate
ago

4 2 1 9.7 9 6

2.8

4 8 8 .5 3 0

5.8

7 8 3 .4 2 7

5.7

5 5 7 .8 6 9

1.9

4 3 3 9.5 1 2

2.8

5 2 4 .0 7 5

7 .3

8 3 6 .3 5 5

6 .8

5 9 3 .6 4 5

6 .4

4 4 7 3.1 5 3

3.1

5 61 .9 7 1

7 .2

9 2 1 .0 8 3

10.1

6 5 2 .0 5 4

9.8

45 7 7.8 4 6

2.3

5 7 9 .8 2 6

3.2

97 5 .9 2 3

6.0

7 1 4 .3 0 7

9.5

4 6 9 0 .6 7 2

2.5

6 1 1 .3 9 0

5.4

104 2.1 1 7

6.8

7 6 6 .8 3 7

7.4

1
2

4 4 2 0.5 3 2

2.8

3.1

5 49.591

5 .8

8.6

8 9 2 .4 1 7

9.0

9 .4

6 2 8 .5 4 5

7.3

4 4 5 8 .7 2 1

3.5

3.2

5 5 5 .4 2 9

4 .3

6 .9

91 1.431

8.8

11.0

6 3 9 .4 8 0

7.1

9.1

3
4

4 4 8 9.3 5 7

2 .8

3 .0

5 6 3 .0 8 9

5 .6

6 .5

9 3 0 .8 1 3

8.8

1 1 .4

6 6 0 .4 7 2

13.8

1 1.4

4 5 2 3 .9 5 9

3.1

3.1

57 9 .7 6 8

1 2 .4

7.0

9 4 9 .6 8 6

8.4

8.7

6 7 9 .7 1 3

1 2 .2

10.1

8 .8

1
2

4 5 3 4.7 6 2

1.0

2 .6

5 6 6 .4 9 0

-8 .9

3.1

9 6 9 .4 9 9

8.6

8.6

7 0 4 .4 4 9

15.4

12.1

4 5 6 9.8 7 0

3.1

2 .5

5 7 6 .1 8 7

7.0

3.7

9 6 5 .6 7 6

-1 .6

6.0

7 1 0 .4 8 0

3.5

11.1

3
4

4597.341

2.4

2.4

5 8 9 .0 8 9

9 .3

4.6

9 7 9 .9 7 3

6.1

5.3

7 1 8 .9 5 4

4 .9

8 .9

4 6 0 9.4 1 0

1.1

1.9

58 7 .5 4 0

-1 .0

1.3

9 8 8 .5 3 6

3.5

4.1

7 2 3 .3 3 9

2.5

6.4

1
2
3
4
1

4 6 4 9.0 7 6

3.5

2 .5

5 9 9 .2 0 2

8 .2

5.8

1 0 1 3.2 9 2

10.4

4.5

7 4 3 .4 7 8

1 1.6

5.5

4 6 8 7.6 0 3

3.4

2 .6

61 5 .6 2 1

1 1.4

6.8

1 0 3 1 .1 0 0

7 .2

6.8

7 5 0 .5 1 2

3.8

5 .6

4 6 9 3 .4 6 8

0.5

2.1

6 1 1 .6 0 5

-2 .6

3.8

1 0 5 7.4 8 5

1 0 .6

7.9

7 8 1 .3 7 4

1 7.5

8 .7

4 7 3 2.5 4 3

3.4

2.7

6 1 9 .1 3 4

5 .0

5 .4

106 6.5 8 9

3.5

7.9

7 9 1 .9 8 4

5.5

9 .5

4 7 9 7 .9 5 0

5.6

3.2

6 4 6 .3 7 9

1 8 .8

7.9

1 0 91.901

9.8

7 .8

8 1 2 .9 5 5

1 1.0

9.3




22

Billions of 1992 $
Last qtr Year/Year ago

1
2
3
4

1992
1993
1994

1996

Change in
Business Inventories

6 2 4 4.4

Billions
of 1992 $

1995

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Year
Annua
rate
ago

6 5 5 3.0

Consumption

1994

Billions
of 1992 $

Final Sales

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago

National EconomicTrends
GDP Chain Price Index

1995
1996
1994

1
2
3
4

1995

1
2
3
4

1996

1997

1
2
3
4
1

Index

Index

2.8

1 1 4 .3

3.7

1 1 1 .9

2.9

1 2 0 .5

5 .5

1 0 2 .6 1 7

2.6

1 1 8 .4

3.6

1 1 5 .2

2 .9

1 2 7 .0

5.4

1 0 4 .9 5 8

2 .3

1 2 2 .3

3.3

1 1 8 .5

2 .9

1 32 .0

4 .0

1 0 7 .5 6 5

2.5

1 2 5 .6

2.8

1 2 1 .9

2 .9

1 3 5 .0

2 .2

1 0 9 .8 7 5

2.1

1 2 9 .2

2 .8

1 2 5 .9

3 .3

1 3 7 .4

1.8

2 .3

1 2 0 .8

3.0

3 .3

1 17.1

2.8

130 .3

4 .4

1 0 0 .0 0 0

1 0 4 .1 4 9

2 .9

1994

1
2
3
4

1995

1996

1997

1
2
3
4

2.1

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

4.3

1 0 4 .6 3 2

1.9

2.2

1 2 1 .8

3.4

3 .3

1 18.1

3 .5

3.1

1 3 1 .5

3.7

4.0

2 .4

2 .3

1 2 2 .8

3 .3

3 .3

1 1 9 .0

3.1

2 .9

132 .8

4.0

4 .0

1 0 5 .8 0 2

2.1

2 .3

1 2 3 .6

2 .6

3.1

1 1 9 .8

2.7

2.8

1 3 3 .5

2.1

3 .6

1 0 6 .6 7 6

3.3

2.4

1 2 4 .4

2.6

3 .0

12 0 .6

2.7

3.0

1 3 3 .9

1.2

2.8

1 2 5 .2

2.6

2 .9

1 3 4 .6

2.1

2.4

1 0 7 .3 0 9

2 .4

2.6

2 .8

12 1 .5

3 .0

1 0 7 .8 5 6

2.1

2.5

1 2 6 .0

2.6

2 .6

1 2 2 .4

3 .0

2.9

1 3 5 .3

2.1

1.9

1 0 8 .4 1 9

2.1

2.5

126 .9

2 .9

2 .7

1 23 .2

2 .6

2.8

1 3 6 .0

2.1

1.9

1 0 9 .0 2 7

2.3

2 .2

1 2 7 .7

2.5

2 .7

1 2 4 .4

4.0

3.2

1 3 6 .0

0.0

1.6

1 0 9 .6 1 9

2 .2

2.2

1 2 8 .8

3.5

2 .9

1 25 .5

3.6

3.3

1 3 7 .0

3.0

1.8

1 10.16 6

2 .0

2.1

1 2 9 .7

2.8

2 .9

126 .4

2 .9

3 .3

1 3 7 .7

2.1

1.8

1 1 0 .689

1.9

2.1

1 3 0 .6

2 .8

2 .9

1 2 7 .4

3.2

3 .4

1 3 8 .7

2.9

2.0

1 1 1 .434

2 .7

2 .2

1 3 1 .4

2.5

2 .9

1 2 8 .5

3 .5

3.3

1 3 8 .7

0.0

2 .0

Billions
of 1992 $

1995
1996

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

1 0 5 .2 4 8

Nonfarm Output per Hour

Imports

Exports

1992
1993
1994

ECI: Benefits

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index
1992
1993
1994

ECI: Wages

Employment Cost Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Billions
Of 1992 $

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Nonfarm Compensation/Hr

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

6 3 9 .4 1 6

6.6

6 6 8 .9 5 9

7 .5

100 .0

3 .2

1 0 0 .0

5.2

6 5 8 .2 1 5

2 .9

7 3 0 .2 4 9

9 .2

100 .2

0.2

1 0 2 .3

2 .3

71 1.971

8.2

8 1 7 .6 3 5

1 2 .0

100 .6

0 .4

1 0 4 .3

2.0

7 7 5 .4 0 1

8 .9

8 8 2 .9 9 9

8.0

1 0 0 .9

0 .3

1 0 7 .7

3 .3

8 2 5 .8 9 8

6.5

9 3 9 .5 3 0

6.4

101 .6

0.7

1 1 1.6

3.6

6 7 7 .6 4 7

-1 .5

4.7

7 7 6 .9 6 2

8.2

1 0 .5

100 .3

-1 .6

0 .2

1 0 3 .7

2 .7

2.3

7 0 3 .1 0 8

1 5 .9

6.5

8 1 0 .4 0 4

18.4

1 1 .9

1 0 0 .5

0.8

0 .9

1 0 4 .0

1.2

2.0

7 1 9 .5 6 0

9 .7

1 1.5

8 3 1 .2 6 2

1 0 .7

1 3 .6

1 0 0 .9

1.6

0.8

1 0 4 .5

1.9

2.0

7 4 7 .5 7 3

1 6 .5

9.9

8 5 1 .9 1 9

1 0 .3

1 1 .8

1 0 1 .0

0 .4

0 .3

1 0 5 .3

3.1

2.2

7 5 2 .3 3 0

2 .6

1 1.0

8 7 4 .8 5 1

1 1 .2

1 2 .6

100 .5

-2 .0

0.2

106.1

3.1

2 .3

7 6 3 .2 2 6

5 .9

8 .6

8 8 4 .6 0 5

4 .5

9 .2

100 .8

1.2

0.3

107.1

3.8

3 .0

7 8 2 .9 5 2

1 0 .7

8 .8

8 8 4 .5 2 4

-0 .0

6.4

1 0 1 .2

1.6

0.3

108.1

3.8

3.4

8 0 3 .0 8 7

1 0 .7

7 .4

8 8 8 .0 2 3

1.6

4 .2

1 0 0 .9

-1 .2

0.1

1 0 9 .2

4.1

3.7

8 0 6 .7 1 3

1.8

7 .2

9 1 0 .7 0 7

1 0 .6

4.1

101 .5

2 .4

1.0

1 10.1

3.3

3.8

8 1 7 .8 6 4

5 .6

7.2

9 3 2 .5 5 6

9 .9

5 .4

101 .6

0.4

0.8

111.1

3.7

3 .7

1
2
3
4

81 6 . 1 0 6

-0 .9

4.2

9 5 3 .5 4 1

9 .3

7 .8

101 .5

-0 .4

0.3

1 1 2 .0

3.3

3.6

8 6 2 .9 1 1

2 5.0

7 .4

9 6 1 .3 1 4

3 .3

8 .3

1 0 1 .8

1.2

0.9

1 13.1

4.0

3.6

1

8 8 5 .2 7 8

1 0 .8

9.7

1 0 0 5.9 6 7

1 9 .9

1 0 .5

102 .5

2 .8

1.0

1 14.5

5.0

4.0




23

HationaiEconomicTrends
Household Survey Employment

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Thousands

1995

1996

Change

1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

118488

1
2
3
4

124924

519

124711

-2 1 3

124820

109

125142

3 22

1
2
3
4

rate

Nonfarm Aggregate Hours

Percent chanae

Percent change
Year
Annual
ago

Thousands

Change

Annual

Year

rate

ago

Index

Percent chanae
Monthly Annual
Year
rate
rate
ago

775

0.7

108591

3 36

0.3

121.0

0.7

1 2 0 25 9

1771

1.5

110707

21 1 6

1.9

124.5

2.9

123067

2808

2.3

114145

3438

3.1

129.8

4.2

1 2 4 89 9

1833

1.5

117195

3051

2.7

133.4

2.8

1 2 6 70 5

1806

1.4

119517

2322

2.0

136.4

2.2

1.7

2.4

116482

873

3.1

3.4

133.0

0.8

3.2

4.3

-0 .7

1.7

116937

455

1.6

2.9

132.9

-0.1

-0 .4

2.7

0.4

1.3

117414

478

1.6

2.4

133.6

0.6

2.3

2.5

1.0

0.6

117949

534

1.8

2.0

134.2

0.4

1.7

1.7

12 5 69 3

551

1.8

0.6

118471

522

1.8

1.7

134.3

0.1

0.4

1.0

126381

688

2.2

1.3

119248

778

2.7

2.0

136.1

1.3

5.5

2.5

127042

661

2.1

1.8

119898

649

2.2

2.1

137.0

0.7

2.7

2.5

127705

664

2.1

2.0

120452

555

1.9

2.1

138.1

0.8

3.1

2.9

1

128728

1023

3.2

2.4

121138

686

2.3

2.3

139.5

1.0

4.1

3.8

1995 May
Jun

12 4 57 7

-4 4 6

-4 .2

1.3

116855

-36

-0 .4

2.8

131.9

-1 .3

-15 .0

1.8

1 2 4 53 3

-44

-0 .4

1.5

117064

209

2.2

2.7

133.0

0.8

10.5

2.5

1997

Jul

124804

271

2.6

1.7

1 17142

78

0.8

2.5

133.6

0.5

5.5

2.6

Aug

1 2 4729

-75

-0 .7

1.2

117465

323

3.4

2.4

133.4

-0.1

-1 .8

2.5

Sep

124927

198

1.9

1.1

117636

171

1.8

2.3

133.9

0.4

4.6

2.4

Oct

125235

308

3.0

1.0

117775

139

1.4

2.2

134.4

0.4

4.6

1.8

Nov
Dee

125124

-1 1 1

-1.1

0.5

1 17951

176

1.8

2.0

134.3

-0.1

-0 .9

1.9

1 2 5 06 8

-56

-0 .5

0.3

1 18120

169

1.7

1.9

133.9

-0 .3

-3 .5

1.4
-0.8

1996 Jan
Feb
Mar

125311

2 43

2.4

0.4

118058

-62

-0 .6

1.6

132.5

-1 .0

-1 1 .8

125706

3 95

3.8

0.6

1 18550

492

5.1

1.7

135.1

2.0

26.3

1.9

126062

356

3.5

0.8

11 8804

254

2.6

1.8

135.4

0.2

2.7

2.0

Apr

126125

63

0.6

0.9

118966

162

1.6

1.8

135.1

-0 .2

-2 .6

1.0

May
Jun

126428

303

2.9

1.5

1 19263

297

3.0

2.1

135.7

0.4

5.5

2.9

126590

162

1.5

1.7

119516

253

2.6

2.1

137.6

1.4

18.2

3.5

Jul

1 2 6 88 9

299

2.9

1.7

1 19691

175

1.8

2.2

136.1

-1.1

-1 2 .3

1.9

Aug

126988

99

0.9

1.8

1 19983

292

3.0

2.1

137.1

0.7

9.2

2.8

Sep

127248

2 60

2.5

1.9

120019

36

0.4

2.0

137.9

0.6

7.2

3.0

Oct

1 2 7 61 7

369

3.5

1.9

120248

229

2.3

2.1

137.2

-0 .5

-5 .9

2.1

Nov
Dee

127644

27

0.3

2.0

12 0450

202

2.0

2.1

137.9

0.5

6.3

2.7

12 7 85 5

21 1

2.0

2.2

120659

209

2.1

2.1

139.1

0.9

11.0

3.9

1997 Jan
Feb
Mar

128580

7 25

7.0

2.6

120909

250

2.5

2.4

138.2

-0 .6

-7 .5

4.3

12 8 43 0

-15 0

-1 .4

2.2

12 1162

253

2.5

2.2

140.0

1.3

16.8

3.6

12 9 17 5

745

7.2

2.5

12 1344

182

1.8

2.1

140.2

0.1

1.7

3.5

Apr

129384

209

2.0

2.6

12 1667

323

3.2

2.3

139.6

-0 .4

-5 .0

3.3

May

12 9 63 9

255

2.4

2.5

12 1805

138

1.4

2.1

140.0

0.3

3.5

3.2


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
24
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

National EconomicTrends
Retail Sales
Unempl.
Rate
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

1995

1996

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1

Billions
of dollars

Industrial Production

Percent chanae
Year
Monthly/ Annual
quarterly

rate

ago

Index

Percent chanae
Monthly/ Annual
Year
quarterly
rate
ago

Treasury
Yields
3 -m o

10-yr

7.5

1 9 4 4 .6 0 5

4.8

100.000

3.2

3.43

7.01

6.9

2071.178

6.5

103.366

3.4

3.00

5.86

6.1

2224.913

7.4

108.5 58

5.0

4.25

7 .0 8

5.6

2326.536

4.6

1 12.109

3.3

5.49

6 .5 8

5.4

2 4 3 9 .8 2 9

4.9

1 15.198

2.8

5.01

6 .4 4

7 .4 8

5.5

5 7 3 .1 3 7

0.2

0.8

5.6

1 1 1.764

1.0

3.9

5.1

5 .7 4

5.6

5 7 8 .6 8 0

1.0

3.9

5.2

1 1 1.561

-0 .2

-0 .7

3.3

5.60

6 .6 2

5.7

5 8 5 .1 4 6

1.1

4.5

4.5

1 12.441

0.8

3.2

3.0

5 .37

6.32

5.6

5 8 9 .5 7 3

0.8

3.1

3.1

1 12.671

0.2

0.8

1.8

5.26

5.89

5.6

6 0 0 .4 8 4

1.9

7.6

4.8

1 13.128

0 .4

1.6

1.2

4 .9 3

5.91

5.4

6 0 9 .3 4 5

1.5

6.0

5.3

1 14.844

1.5

6.2

2.9

5 .02

6 .7 2

5.3

61 1.040

0.3

1.1

4.4

1 15.774

0.8

3 .3

3.0

5 .1 0

6 .78

5.3

6 1 8 .9 6 0

1.3

5.3

5.0

1 17.048

1.1

4.5

3.9

4 .9 8

6 .3 4

5.3

6 3 5 .5 9 7

2.7

1 1.2

5.8

1 18.325

1.1

4.4

4.6

5.06

6.56

1995 May
Jun

5.6

1 9 3 .0 7 4

1.0

13.2

5.7

1 1 1.523

0.1

1.1

3.2

5.67

6 .6 3

5.6

19 4 .5 1 2

0.7

9.3

5.5

1 1 1.739

0.2

2.3

2.9

5.47

6 .1 7

Jul
Aug
Sep

5.7

1 9 4 .3 1 5

-0.1

-1 .2

5.3

1 1 1.716

-0 .0

-0 .2

2.4

5.42

6 .2 8

5.7

1 9 5 .7 5 2

0.7

9.2

4.5

1 12.603

0.8

10.0

3.1

5 .4 0

6.49

5.7

1 9 5.0 79

-0 .3

-4 .0

3.8

1 13.003

0.4

4.3

3.4

5 .2 8

6 .2 0

Oct
Nov
Dec

5.5

1 9 4 .8 6 5

-0.1

-1 .3

2.3

1 12.522

-0 .4

-5 .0

2.3

5 .28

6 .0 4

5.6

19 6 .7 0 2

0.9

1 1.9

3.1

1 12.704

0.2

2.0

1.9

5 .36

5 .9 3

5.6

19 8 .0 0 6

0.7

8.3

3.8

1 12.788

0.1

0.9

1.1

5.1 4

5.71

-0.1

5 .6 5

1997

1996 Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep

5.7

1 9 7 .7 1 4

-1 .8

2.6

1 12.361

-0 .4

-4 .4

0 .4

5.00

5.5

2 0 1 .0 8 5

1.7

22.5

6.1

1 13.782

1.3

16.3

1.9

4.83

5.81

5.5

2 0 1 .6 8 5

0.3

3.6

5.6

113.241

-0 .5

-5 .6

1.4

4.96

6 .2 7

5.5

2 0 2 .4 9 6

0.4

4.9

6.0

1 14.284

0.9

1 1.6

2.6

4.95

6.51

5.5

2 0 4 .0 6 0

0.8

9.7

5.7

1 14.782

0.4

5 .4

2.9

5.02

6 .7 4

5.3

2 0 2 .7 8 9

-0 .6

-7 .2

4.3

1 15.466

0.6

7 .4

3.3

5.09

6.91

5.4

203.291

0.2

3.0

4.6

1 15.495

0.0

0.3

3.4

5.15

6.8 7

5.2

2 0 3 .0 3 6

-0.1

-1 .5

3.7

1 15.848

0.3

3.7

2.9

5 .0 5

6 .6 4

5.2

2 0 4 .7 1 3

0.8

10.4

4.9

1 15.978

0.1

1.4

2.6

5.09

6.8 3
6.5 3

Oct
Nov
Dec

5.2

2 0 6 .2 7 7

0.8

9.6

5.9

1 16.231

0.2

2.6

3.3

4.99

5.3

20 5 .7 8 9

-0 .2

-2 .8

4.6

1 17.216

0.8

10.7

4.0

5.03

6.2 0

5.3

2 0 6 .8 9 4

0.5

6.6

4.5

1 17.697

0.4

5.0

4.4

4.91

6 .30

1997 Jan
Feb
Mar

5.4

2 1 0 .2 3 3

1.6

21.2

6.3

1 17.765

0.1

0.7

4.8

5.03

6 .5 8

5.3

2 1 3 .0 2 2

1.3

17.1

5.9

1 18.366

0.5

6.3

4.0

5.01

6 .4 2

5.2

2 1 2 .3 4 2

-0 .3

-3 .8

5.3

1 18.844

0.4

5.0

4.9

5.14

6.69

Apr
May

4.9

2 1 0 .4 4 0

-0 .9

-10.2

3.9

1 19.245

0.3

4.1

4.3

5 .1 6

6.89

4.8

2 1 0 .1 5 5

-0.1

-1 .6

3.0

1 19.737

0.4

5.1

4.3

5 .0 5

6.71




25

NationalEconomicTrends
consumer rrice moex

rroaucer rrice maex

less Food and Energy

Consumer Price Index
Percent chanae
Monthly/ Annual
Year
index quarterly rate
ago

Year
to date

Percent chanae
Monthly/ Annual Year
Index quarterly rate
ago

Finished Goods
Year
to date

Index

Percent chanae
Monthly/ Annual Year
quarterly rate
ago

123.2
124.7
125.6
127.9
131.3

1.2
1.2
0.7
1.9
2.6

1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

140.4
144.6
148.3
152.5
157.0

1
2
3
4

151.0
152.1
152.9
153.9

0.7
0.8
0.5
0.6

2.8
3.1
2.1
2.5

2.9
3.0
2.6
2.6

2.8
3.0
2.7
2.6

159.6
161.0
162.0
163.1

0.8
0.8
0.6
0.7

3.3
3.4
2.6
2.8

3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0

3.3
3.4
3.1
3.0

127.1
127.6
128.0
129.0

0.7
0.4
0.3
0.7

3.0
1.7
1.3
2.9

1.7
2.0
1.6
2.2

1996

1
2
3
4

155.1
156.4
157.5
158.8

0.8
0.8
0.7
0.8

3.3
3.4
2.7
3.3

2.8
2.8
3.0
3.2

3.3
3.4
3.1
3.2

164.2
165.3
166.3
167.4

0.7
0.6
0.6
0.6

2.6
2.6
2.5
2.6

2.9
2.7
2.7
2.6

2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6

129.9
130.9
131.6
132.9

0.7
0.7
0.6
1.0

3.0
2.9
2.3
3.9

2.2
2.5
2.8
3.0

1997

1

159.7

0.6

2.4

2.9

2.4

168.3

0.6

2.2

2.5

2.2

132.6

-0.2

-0.7

2.1

1995 May
Jun

152.1
152.5

0.2
0.3

2.4
3.2

3.0
3.0

2.9
2.9

161.0
161.3

0.2
0.2

3.0
2.3

3.1
2.9

3.7
3.4

127.7
127.7

0.2
0.0

1.9
0.0

2.2
2.0

Jul
Aug
Sep

152.6
153.0
153.2

0.1
0.3
0.1

0.8
3.2
1.6

2.8
2.6
2.5

2.6
2.7
2.6

161.6
162.0
162.4

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.3
3.0
3.0

3.0
2.9
3.0

3.3
3.2
3.2

127.9
127.9
128.3

0.2
0.0
0.3

1.9
0.0
3.8

1.8
1.3
1.8

Oct
Nov
Dec

153.7
153.8
154.1

0.3
0.1
0.2

4.0
0.8
2.4

2.7
2.6
2.5

2.7
2.5
2.5

162.9
163.1
163.4

0.3
0.1
0.2

3.8
1.5
2.2

3.1
3.0
3.0

3.3
3.1
3.0

128.5
128.8
129.6

0.2
0.2
0.6

1.9
2.8
7.7

2.4
2.1
2.2

1996 Jan
Feb
Mar

154.7
155.1
155.6

0.4
0.3
0.3

4.8
3.1
3.9

2.7
2.7
2.8

4.8
4.0
4.0

163.8
164.2
164.6

0.2
0.2
0.2

3.0
3.0
3.0

2.9
2.9
2.8

3.0
3.0
3.0

129.7
129.7
130.4

0.1
0.0
0.5

0.9
0.0
6.7

2.2
2.0
2.4

Apr
May
Jun

156.1

0.3
0.3
0.1

3.9
3.1
1.5

2.8
2.9
2.8

3.9

164.9

0.2

2.8

3.8
3.4

0.2
0.2

2.7
2.7

2.8
2.7

130.6
130.8
131.2

0.2
0.2
0.3

1.9

165.3
165.6

2.2
3.0
2.2

2.7

156.5
156.7

1.9
3.7

2.4
2.4
2.7

Jul
Aug
Sep

157.1
157.4
157.9

0.3
0.2
0.3

3.1
2.3
3.9

2.9
2.9
3.1

3.4
3.2
3.3

166.0
166.2
166.7

0.2
0.1
0.3

2.9
1.5
3.7

2.7
2.6
2.6

2.7
2.6
2.7

131.2
131.6
132.0

0.0
0.3
0.3

0.0
3.7
3.7

2.6
2.9
2.9

Oct
Nov
Dec

158.3
158.8
159.2

0.3
0.3
0.3

3.1
3.9
3.1

3.0
3.3
3.3

3.3
3.3
3.3

167.0
167.4
167.7

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.2
2.9
2.2

2.5
2.6
2.6

2.6
2.7
2.6

132.5
132.7
133.4

0.4
0.2
0.5

4.6
1.8
6.5

3.1
3.0
2.9

1997 Jan
Feb
Mar

159.4
159.8
159.9

0.1
0.3
0.1

1.5
3.1
0.8

3.0
3.0
2.8

1.5
2.3
1.8

167.9
168.3
168.7

0.1
0.2
0.2

1.4
2.9
2.9

2.5
2.5
2.5

1.4
2.2
2.4

133.0
132.5
132.4

-0.3
-0.4
-0. 1

-3.5
-4.4
-0.9

2.5
2.2
1.5

Apr
May

160.0
160.1

0.1
0.1

0.8
0.8

2.5
2.3

1.5
1.4

169.2
169.5

0.3
0.2

3.6
2.1

2.6
2.5

2.7
2.6

131.6
131.2

-0.6
-0.3

-7.0
-3.6

0.8
0.3

1995


26


3.7
3.3
2.8
3.0
2.7

147.5
152.4
156.7
161.4
165.8

3.0
3.0
2.6
2.8
2.9

National EconomicTrends
Notes
Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus change
in business inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final GDP
growth rates are released during the first, second, and third months o f
the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation o f more com­
plete information. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is a weighted
average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production, supplier deliv­
eries, inventories, and employment. The National Association o f Pur­
chasing Management (NAPM) surveys over 300 firms in 20 manufac­
turing industries, weighting responses by industry share of GDP. Ag­
gregate and average weekly hours are paid hours o f production and
nonsupervisory employees. The inventory-sales ratio uses nominal
(current-dollar) inventory and sales data.
Page 6: The contribution of a component X, to the overall GDP
growth rate in quarter t is 100 x [(1 + (Xt - X,.i)/GDPt.i)4 - 1], The sign
is changed for imports. This calculation forces components to add up
to the GDP growth rate before compounding and does not exactly
match Survey o f Current Business, Table 8.2. The residual line is
calculated using the finest level o f detail in the table.
Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity.
Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used in
the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. The total return on
the Standard and Poor's 500 is dividends as a percent of the value o f
the index plus the percent change in the index.
Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices for
West Texas intermediate crude (Wall Street Journal). Consumer price
index is for all urban consumers. The consumption chain price index
is the index associated with the personal consumption expenditures
component of GDP. The Employment Cost Index (ECI) covers pri­
vate nonfarm employers. ECI compensation refers to a fixed sample
of jobs, while compensation per hour covers all workers in the non­
farm business sector in a given quarter. In both cases, compensation is
wages and salaries plus benefits.
Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey of
about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It ex­
cludes self-employed individuals and workers in private households,
but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The household
survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000 households pro­
vides estimates of civilian employment, unemployment rate, labor force
participation rate, and employment-population ratio. Population is
civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. New population controls
introduced in January 1997 affect levels and growth rates of household
survey employment, labor force and population. The unemployment
rate and other ratios are minimally affected. 90 percent confidence
intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 percentage points) and
change in household survey employment (± 376,000) measure uncer­
tainty due to sample size. The household survey was changed in Janu­
ary 1994, so care should be exercised in making short-term compari­
sons around this date, particularly with the duration data shown on
page 10. Other changes in the survey are detailed in Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Employment and Earnings, Appendix A.
Pages 12,13: Debt service is an estimate of scheduled interest and
principal payments on outstanding debt. The Michigan consumer
sentiment index shows changes in a summary measure o f consumers’
answers to five questions about their current and expected financial
situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and attitudes
about making large purchases. The survey is based on a representative
sample o f U.S. households.
Pages 14,15: Overall gross saving includes government saving,
which is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption
(see notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (NFI) is U.S.
investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside from a
statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between gross
domestic investment and saving.




Pages 16,17: Government consumption and investment is current
expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption
(depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the National Income
and Product Accounts (NIPA). The unified federal budget deficit
differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA excludes trans­
actions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays exclude government
investment and include consumption of government capital, while
unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA accounts exclude
Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various timing issues are
handled differently. Outlays and receipts on these pages are from the
NIP As, except as noted. Since 1977, the federal fiscal y e ar starts on
October 1. Federal debt held by the public includes holdings o f the
Federal Reserve System and excludes holdings o f the social security
and other federal trust funds. Federal grants in aid to state and local
governments appear in both state and local receipts and federal outlays.
Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments
basis) is the difference between exports and imports o f goods
(merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net
exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details.
The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned
assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical in
concept to the difference between gross national product and gross
domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current ac­
count balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment
income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries.
Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and
compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately obey
the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with %()
meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9. Real
compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of infla­
tion. Multifactor productivity estimates changes in output that do not
correspond to changes in quantities of labor, capital, or intermediate
inputs. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove the effect of
changes in the value of existing inventories from corporate profits and
proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not correspond to
current production and therefore is not part of GDP). Capital con­
sumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and proprietors’
income by the difference between estimates o f economic depreciation
and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components of national
income not shown are rental income of persons and net interest.

Sources
Bureau o f Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept, o f Commerce
National income and product accounts, international trade and i nvestment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales
Census Bureau, U.S. Dept, o f Commerce
Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing
starts, exports and imports by country
Bureau o f Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept, o f Labor
All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer and
producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, compensa­
tion per hour, total factor productivity
United States Department o f Treasury
Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit
Federal Reserve Board
Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, capac­
ity utilization, consumer debt service
The Survey Research Center, The University o f Michigan
Consumer sentiment index
The Conference Board
Help-wanted advertising index
Organization fo r Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED)

27

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St. Louis, Missouri 63166

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