Full text of National Economic Trends : July 1996

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JULY 1996

National
Economic
Trends
Are Computers
Increasing Productivity?
Real investment in Computers and Peripheral
Equipment (CPE) increased from $0.1 billion in
1971 to $91.6 billion in 1995 (in 1992 dollars). CPE
now represents a major portion of Private Fixed
Investment in Producer Durables Equipment (PDE),
increasing from less than one tenth of one percent of
PDE in 1971 to 17 percent in 1995. The relationship
between increased computer use and productivity
growth, however, is unclear. As the accompanying
chart shows, total business productivity, measured as
output per employee hour has not increased as much
as might be expected, despite the dramatic increase in
investment in CPE. Business productivity increased
at a 1.3 percent annual rate between 1971 and 1995.
Average productivity growth over the last nine years
(1986-1995) was only 0.8 percent per year.
Why has the proliferation of computing equipment
not led to faster productivity growth? Economists
have offered three principal arguments. First,
computers are only a small portion of the capital
stock and therefore computer-related labor
input would have to experience an enormous
productivity improvement to have a perceptible
impact on aggregate productivity. Second, errors
in measurement probably cause an understate­
ment of productivity improvements from
computers. The output of the service sector in
particular is difficult to quantify, so measuring
increased productivity in services is a problem.
For example it is hard to quantify the service
received from a lawyer, so if the computer
improves the quality of that service, the im­
provement is not likely to be measured.

The third argument suggests we are on the verge
of a productivity growth surge. The essence of this
claim is that the changes in work patterns that com­
puters are inducing will take time to diffuse through
the economy, in much the same way innovations like
Watt’s steam engine and Ford’s production methods
took time to diffuse. As more individuals and firms
acquire the skills and knowledge to use the full potential
of computers and other information technology hard­
ware, productivity will surge.
These arguments may all be partially correct. It is
possible that we expect too much of a dramatic increase
in productivity from computers use. It is also true that
some improvements in the quality of products and ser­
vices are not measured in our assessment of productivity,
leading to measured productivity that understates the
benefits from computers. Also, judging from the his­
tory of other successful innovations, we may yet reap
substantial productivity increases from past investment
in computers and peripheral equipment.
—Donald Allen

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions o f the Federal Reserve System
National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division o f the Federal Reserve Bank o f St. Louis. For more information on data, please
call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free o f charge by writing Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office
Box
St. Louis, M O 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve
Digitized
for442,
FRASER
Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred.


Table of Contents
Page
3-4
5-6
7-8
9
10
11
12-13
14
15
16-17
18-21
22
23
24
25-27

Nominal and Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Price Deflators
Consumer and Producer Prices
Employment Costs
Productivity and Unit Labor Cost
Industrial Production
Employment and Unemployment
Real Personal Income
Retail Sales
Inventories and Final Sales
Components of Real GDP
U.S. International Transactions
Gross Saving and Investment
Corporate Profits and Cash Flow
Government Budget Data

How to Use the Triangles in This Publication
This publication makes extensive use of “ triangles” to present compound annual rates of change over various periods.
Consider the simple, abbreviated triangle below for quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product from the first quarter of
1994 to the fourth quarter of 1995. From this triangle, the reader can obtain rates of change from any date on the top
row to any date along the left column; actual dollar figures for the periods in the left-most column are shown in the
right-most column. In our example, the compound annual rate of growth from 11/1994 to III/1995 can be found at the
intersection of the 11/1994 column and the III/1995 row, a 2.3 percent rate; similarly, the annual rate of change from
1/1994 to IV/1995 is 2.4 percent. Reading down the diagonal gives the growth rate from one quarter to the next.

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95




1-94

2-94

4.8
4.2
3.8
3.0
2.5
2.7
2.4

3.6
3.4
2.4
1.9
2.3
2.0

3-94

3.2
1.9
1.4
1.9
1.6

4-94

0.6
0.5
1.5
1.3

2

1-95

0.5
2.0
1.5

2-95

3.6
2.0

3-95

0.5

6,581.5
6,639.5
6.691.3
6,701.6
6,709.4
6,768.3
6,776.5

Gross Domestic Product
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Real GDP is chain-w eight quantity index scaled to 1992 dollars.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

3.91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3*92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93

4.0
3.8
5,2
5.2
5.1
5.5
5.2
5.1
5.0
5.2

3.6
5.9
5.7
5.4
5.8
5.4
5.2
5.1
5.3

8.2
6.7
6.0
6.3
5.8
5.5
5.3
5.5

1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95

5.2
53
5,4
5.4
5.3
5.1

5.3
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.4
5.2

5.5
5.6
5.7
5.7
5.5
5.3

52

3-95

5.2

5.2

4-95

5.0

5.1

5.3
5,0
5.7
5.2
5.0
4.8
5.1

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

4.6
5.9
5.2
4.9
4.7
5.1

7.3
5.5
5.0
4.8
5.2

3.8
3.8
4.0
4.7

3.8
4.0
5.0

5.4
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.1

5.2
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.3
5.1

5.3
5.5
5.6
5.5
5.4
5.1

4.9
5.2
5,3
5.3
5J2
49

5.1
5.5
5.6
5.5
5.3
5.0

5.4

&2

5.1

5.2

5.0

5.1

5.3

5.2

5.0

4.9

5.0

4.8

4.9

5.0
4.9

I
2-91

3-91

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

4.3
5.6
5.6
59

2-94

6.4
6.3
6.1

5.4
6.8
6.1
6.4
6.1
5.9 ~ 6.1

6.1
5.7

5.5

5.8

5.5

5.5

5.1

5.2

5.3
5.4
5.0

5.1

5.0

5.2

5.1

4.8

5.0

4,7

4.7
4,7

4.5
4.8
4.4
4.4

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

5.9
5.8

2-93

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

7.0

6,2

First quarter data are final estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94

5.4

39

4.6
4.0
4.4
4.0

3.3
4.1
3.7

4.1
3-94

2.8

3.8

4.3
3.6
3.8

5.8
4.0
4.1

2.3
3.3

4.3

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5,950.0
6,002.3
6,121.8
6,201.2
6,271.7
6,383.0
6,442.8
6,503.2
6,571.3
6,683.7
6,772.8
6,885.0
6,987.6
7,080.0
7,147.8
7,196.5
7,298.5
7,340.4
7,417.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1, 1996

3

Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Trend is ten-year moving average of chain-weight (1992 dollar) growth rate. The fixed-weight trend
(not shown) differs only slightly.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

2-91

3-91

10
1.0

1.0

22

2.8
2.7

2.3
2.5
2.8
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.5
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.5
2.6
25
2.4

2.8
3.1
2.6
2.5
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.5

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

4,7
3.6
3.4
3.7
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.9
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.8
2.6
2.6 '
4-91

2.5
2.8
3.3
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.6
2.6
2.9
2*9
3.0
2,6
2.6
2.7
2.5
1-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
4-95
6,089.3
6,104.4
6,175.3
6,214.2

3.0
3.7
2.4
2.2
2.3
2.7
2.6
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.5
*& !

First quarter data are final estimates.




2-92

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

2-92

6,260.9
4.3
2.1
2.0
2*1
2.6
2.6
2.9
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.4
3-92

6,327.3
-0.0
0.8
1.3
2.2

6,327.0
1.7
2.0
2.9

2.3
35

2.3

2.8
3.2
3.3
33
2.9
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.$

3,2
3.6
3.6
3.5
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.6

3*2
2.8
2.9
2.6
26

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

22
2.7
2.8
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.5
2.3

6,353.7
6,390.4
6,463.9

4.7
3.6
4.0
3.9
37

25
3.7
3.6
35
2.9
2.5
2.7
2.4

4.8
4.2
3.8

Sill!

2A

2.5
2.7
2.4
2,3

4-93

1-94

3.6
3.4
2.4
1.9
2.3
2.0
2.0
2-94

3.2
1.9
1.4
1-9
1.6
1.7

0.6
0.5
1,5
1.3
1,4

0.5
2.G
1.5

3.6
2.0

1,7

2.1

1.3

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

0.5

m

6,581.5
6,639.5
6,691.3
6,701.6
6,709.4
6,768.3
6,776.5
6,812.7

4-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1,1996

GDP Chain Price Index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Percent

Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

GDP Chain Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-91

3-91

3*91
4-91

2,9
2.7

1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

2,9
2.9
2.6
2.7
2.8
2.7

2.5
2,9
2.9
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.7

2.6
2.6

2.6
2.6

2,6
2.5

2.5
2.5
2.5

2,6
2.5
2,5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

2-91

3-91

1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

¿Si
2.5
2.6
2.6

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

1992=100
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95
97.7
98.3

3.3
3.1
2.6
2.6
2,8
2.8
2.6

99.1
2.9
2.2
2.4
2.7
2.7
2.5
2.5
25
2.4

99.8
1.6
2.2

2.5

2,5

2.7
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.4

4-91

1-92

2-92

2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
25
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5

2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4

First quarter data are final estimates.




100.2
2.8
3.2
2.9
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.5

100.9
3.6
3.0
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.5

2.5
2.5
2.5

2JS

3-92

101.8
2.4
2.0
2.1
2.3
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.4
2.4

102.4
1.6
2.0
2.2
2.1
2,2
2.2
2.4
2.4

2.5

2.4
2.3

2J5

2.4

2.4
2.3
2.4

4-92

1-93

2-93

102.8
2.4

Z5
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.5

2.7
2.3
2.3
2.3
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.4

2.5
2.4
2.4

zs

3-93

4-93

103.4
104.1
104.6
105.2
105.8
106.7
107.3
107.9
108.5

1.9
2.8
2.3
2.5 ; 2.7
2.5
2.6
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.5

2.5

2-94

3-94

2.1
2.2

1-94

2.3
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.5

3.4
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
4-94

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.2
2,4

2.2

2.3
1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1, 1996

GDP Fixed-Weight Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

2J
2.5
28
2.8
2.5
2.6
2.7
27

3-91

26
2.6
2.6
2.6
2-91

3-91

tfc fi

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

1992=100
1-94

3-94

2-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95
97.7
98.3
99.1
99.8
100.2
100.9
101.8
102.4

illlll

2.5
29
2.9
2.6
2.6
2.8
27
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6

2.0
2.6
2*6
26
2.6
2.6

4-91

: 1ü :

3.3
3.1
2.6
2.6
2.8
2.8
2.6
26
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
»

2.9
2.2
2.4

1.6
2.2
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.6
25
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6

2.7
2.6
2,6
2.6
2.7
2.7

ss

2.5
2.5
2.5

1-92

2-92

2.7
2.7

23
2.5
2,6
25

23
2.5
2.6
2.6

!

2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
4-91

2j6
2.5

2.8
3.2
2.9
2.7
2.6

3.6
3.0
2.7

2.4

2.6

2.2
2.2

5 7
m+t

4****

2.4
2.3
2.4

2.6
2.6
2.6

2.6
2,5
2.5
2,6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6

3-92

4-92

2.0
2.2
25

23

2.3
2.3
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5

1-93

2-93

23
2.5
2.5
2.5

102.9
103.5

liliili

2.4
-w

25
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
26

3.1
25

2,1
2.3

t *
2.5
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.6

2.6

2.6
2.6
2.6

2.6
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.5

3-93

4-93

1-94

2.5
2.7
2.7

104.3
104.8
105.4
106.1

1.9
:

2.7

m

3.1
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.6

3.4
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.6

2.6
2.4
2.4
2-4

2.2
2.2
2.4

2.2
2.4

2.6

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

First quarter data are final estimates.

107.0
107.7
108.3
108.9
109.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1,1996

Personal Consumption Expenditure Chain Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92

2-91
2.9
3.3
3.5
3.4

3-92
4-92

3.2
32

3-91

4-91

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

1992=100
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

97.1
3.8

98.0

1 3<2
3.1
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
1*95 2-95
2.8
3-95
2.7
4-95
2.6
1-96
2.6

3.7
3.6
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.1
2,9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.6
2.6

3.7
3.5
3.1
3.2
3.1
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7
2>6
2.6
2.5

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94

1-92

98.9
3.3
2.9
3.0

99.7

2.9
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6

2.4
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5

23

23

2.5
2J5

2.4
2.4

3.2
3.0
2.9
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.6
2,5
2.4
2.4

1-92

2-92

3-92

2J9

2.8
2.8
2.2
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.5
2.4
2.4
2.3

2.8
2.0
2.2
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.4
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.3

1,2
2.0
2.1
2.1
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.3

4-92

1-93

2-93

2.8
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.6
2.4
2.4

2.3
2.3
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.4
2.3
2.3

2.3
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6
2,4
2.3
2.3

3.1
2.7
2.7
2.7
2,4
2.3
2.3

2.3
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.2

2.7
2.7
2.3
2.2

22.

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

23

First quarter data are final estimates.




6

22.

2.6
2.1
2.0
2.1

1*5
1.7
1.9

2.0

22

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1.9

100.3
101.1
101,8
102.5
102.8
103.5
104.1
104.7
105.5
106.1
106.8
107.5
107,9
108.4
109.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1, 1996

Consumer Price index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Percent

Seasonally Adjusted

1990

1991

1992

1993

Percent

1994

1995

1996

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
10-94 11-94 12-94
11-94
3.3
2.8
2.4
12-94
2.8
3.2
1*95 3,0
27
2.8
2.8
2-95
3-95
2,9
2.8
3.0
3.1
3.1
3.2
4-95
3.1
31
3.2
5-95
3.2
3.1
3.1
6-95
2.8
2.9
7*95
29
2.8
2.8
2.8
8-95
2.7
2.7
9-95
26
2.8
2.8
2.8
10-95
2,7
11-95
2.6
2.6
2.6
12-95
2.6
2.6
1-96 2.8
2.8
27
2.7
2.7
2-96
2.7
3-96 2.9
2.9
2.8
4-96
3.0
2.9
3.0
5-96
3.0
3.0
3.0

1-95

10-94 11-94 12-94

1-95




2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

Initial Month
6-95 7-95 8-95

1982-84=100
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96
149.9
150.2

150.6
2.4

150.9

2.8
3.2
32
3.2
2.8
27
2.6
2.8

3.2
3.6
3.5
3.4
2.9
2.8
2.6
2.8

2,6
2.5
2.7
2.7
2.8
3.0
3.0

2.6
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.8 * 2.7
2.7
2.7
2.9
2.8
3.0
3.0

4.0
3.6
3.5
2.8
27
2.5
2.7

3.2
3.2
2.4
2.4

¿V “* ' v
3.2

25
Jts
23
2.6
2.5

20
24
2.1
2.1
2.5
2.5

2.9

2.9

0.8
1.6
1.6
22
1.9
2.0
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.8

22

151.3
151.8
152.2
152.6
152.7
153.0
153.2
153.7

2.0
2.1

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

2.4
2,0
26

22
22
2.6
2.6
2.9
3.1

1.6
2.8
2.1
2.2
2.7
2.6
2.9
3.2
3.2

7-95

8-95

7

4.0
2.4

1.6

2.4

3.0

2.6

3.6

2.8
3.2
3.4
3.4

2.6
3.0
3.3
3.4

3.2
3.6
3.8
3.8

154.1
4.8
3.6
4.0
4.1
4.1

2.4
3.5
3.9
3.9

4.7
4.7

4.7

4.5

4.3

3.9

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

154.7
155.0
155.6
156.2
156.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1, 1996

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent
8

1992

1991

1990

1994

1993

1995

1996

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month
10-94 11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

11-94

7.9

12-94

6.9

5.9

1-95

5.2

3.9

1.9

2-95

4.4

3.2

1.9

1.9

3-95

3.7

2.6

1.6

1.4

0.9

4-95

3.5

2.7

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.9

5-95

3.4

2,7

2.1

2.1

2.9

6-95

2.8

7-95

25

2.0
1.8

2.2
1.2

8-95

2.3

1.7

9-95

2.4

1.9

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

1982=100

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

126.2
126.8
127.0
127.2
127,3
127.6
2.9

127.9

1.4

1.3

1.3

0.5

-1.9

1.2
1.2

1.1
1.1

09

0.9

0.3

-0.9

0.0

0.9

0.9

0.5

-0.3

0.5

0.9

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.1

1.6

2.4

1.7

127.7
127.7
127.8

10-95

2.4

1.9

1.5
1.5

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.3

0.7
0.9

11-95

2.5

2-1

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.4

2.1

2.2
2,6

3.2

28

3.8

12-95

2.9

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.3

3.0

3.6

4.3

4.4

5.7

7.7

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.8

3.3

3.8

4.7

1.9

2.1

2.0

1.9

2.4

2.7

3.0

111 ®
2.8

4.4

2.2

2.2
2.0

3.1

2.8

0.5

-0.9

3-96

2.8
2.6
2.8

2.2
2.2
2.0

2.3

1-96

2.2
22
2.0

2.5

2,3

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.8

3.2

3.5

,.3.5

3.8

3.8

2.5

2.8

6.7

4-96

2.9

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.7

3.6

3.9

4.0

30

3.4

5.7

4.7

5-96

2.7

2.4

2.2

2.2

23

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.1

’ 3.2

3.1

2.2

&4

1*8 *i

10-94 11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

«
1-96

2-96

4-96




8

126.2

3.8
2.9

19

128.4
128.8
129.6

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

129,8
129.7

2-96

130.4

3-96

130.9
'

!

130.8

4-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1, 1996

Employment Cost Index and Its Components
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent
9

-7

•3

Compensation is the sum of wages, salaries and benefits for private industry workers.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Compensation
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-91
4.4
4.1

3-91

2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94

3.6
3.6
3.6
3.7
3.7

3.4
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.6

3.6
3.6

3.5
3.5

3.6
3.5

3.5
35

4-94

3.4
3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3.3

3.4

2-91

3*91
4-91

1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

June 1989=100
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95
110.9
111.9
113.0
113.7
114.7
115.7
116.9
117.9
118.9
119.9
120.8
121.8

3.7
3.2
3.4
3.4
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4

2.5
3.0
3.2
3.5
3.5
3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4

3.6
35
3.8
37
3.6
3.6
3.5
35

3.5
3.9
3.7
3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5

3.3
3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2

3.3
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.2

3.3
3.3
3.2
32
3.2

3.4
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2

33
3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2

¡¡III
3.2
3.2
3.2

3.2

3.2

&2

3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
3.1

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Data are for the last month of quarter.




(iSISi
4.2
3.8
37
3.6

It*5
35
3.3

M

''

, i

3.5
3.5
3.4
3.3
3.3

3.4
3.4
3.3
3.3
3,3
3.1
3.1
3.1

* At%: "

;

34
3.2
33
3.3
3.1

3*0
3.2

3.4

3.1
3.0

3.2 i
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0
3.0

2.8
2.9
2.9

2.3
2.6
2.7

3.1
3.0

3.0
3.0

3.0
2.9

2.9
2.9
2.9

2.8
2.9
2.9

2.7
2.8
2.8

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

2.9
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.9
4-94

122.8
123.5
124,4
125.3

2.9
2.8
2.9
2.9

2.6
2.9
2.9

3.2
3.0

2.9

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

v/V

126.1
127.1
128.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1, 1996

Business Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
Percent Change From Previous Year
Percent

Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector - Output Per Hour
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

4-91

1-92

2-92

2-91

3-91

2.1
1.7

1.2

3.7
3.4

4.6
3.9

8.0
5.2

2.4

2.6
3.1
2.1
1.6
1.5
1.7
1-4
1.3
1.4
1.3
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.1
1-2 '

2.7
3.3
2.1
1.5
1.4
1.7
1.3
1.2
1.3
1.3
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.1

3.2
3.8
2.3
1.6
1.5
1.7

0.8
2.4
0.9
0.3
0.4
0.9

1.3
1.2
1,3
1.3
1.0
1.1
1.1
1.0
1.1

0.5
0.5
0.7
0.7
0.5
0.6
0.6
0.6

0.7

-0.8
2.4
0.4
-0.2
0.0
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.4
0.6

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

2-91

3-92

4-92

1-93

initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

1992=100
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95
97.1
97.4

Data series has been revised.



99.3
99.9
99.7
101.1

5.7
1.0
0.0
0.2
0.9
0.4
0.4

-3.5
-2.8
-1.6
-0.3

0.7

-0.6
-0.5
-0,1
0.0
-0.2
0.0
0.1
0.1
0.3

3-92

4-92

0.6
0.7
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.5

100.2
-2.0
-0.6
0.8
01
0.2
0.5
0.6
0.2
0.4
0.5
0.4

99.7
0.8
2.2
0.8
0.7
10
1.0

0.8

0.6
0.7
0.8
0.7
0.8

1-93

2-93

,a

a

99.9
3.7
0.8
0.7
1.1
1.0
0.5
0.7
0.8
0.7

100.8
100.3
100.4

-2.0
-0.8

0.4

0.3
0.4

1.4
1.2

2.4
1.6

-0.1
0.2
0.4
0.3

0.4
0.6
0.8
0.6

0.4
0.7
0.9
0.7

*0.6
01
0.5
0.3

0.8

m

as

0,0

07

0.2
0.6

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

10

101.0
101.2

0.8
>2.0
-0.2

0.4

,

t vA f

:

100,7
101.1
101.5
101.4

1.6
1.6
0.9

1.6
0.6

1*3

Ä :

is

2,4

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

-0.4

102.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1, 1996

Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted

1987 = 100

1987 = 100

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95
9-95
10-95
11-95
12-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96
5-96

10-94 11-94 12-94
6,6
8.2
9.9
6.6
6.6
3.3
4.6
4.0
12
4.0
3.4
1.3
1.7 -0.2
2.5
2.1
1.3 -0,3
1.9
1.3 -0.1
0.0
...M ......I-2
2.8
2.4
15
2,7
2,3
1,5
1.9
15
0.7
1.7
2.1
1.0
21
17
11
1.4
0.8
1,7
2.4
2.7
1.9

22 .....11. .... M

1-95

2-95

0.4
-1.4
-1.2
-0.8
-0.5
12
1Z

0.4
0,8
09
0.6
1.8

1.7
-1.6
-1.2
-0.7
-0.4
1.6
1.6
0.5
1.0
1.1
0.7
2.0
1.9
2.3

10-94 11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95

2.6




5-95

Initial Month
6-95 7-95 8-95

1987=100
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96
120.534
121.484
121.816
121.720
121.888
121.388
121.339
121.434
121.507
122.690
122.821
122.159

.. ..... .

«
1.7
2.1

2.3

4-95

-0 9

1.8
2.2

2.5
2.8

3-95

-4.8
-2.7 1 -0.5
-1 5
0.2
-0.9
0.4
1.6
3.3

0.9
0.8
4.5

0.7
6.4

3.7
1.6

4.6
1.8

12.3
6.7
22

0,9
1.7
2.1
1.8
2.1
1.0
0.6 "..1 2 .... 15
2.7
2.0
3.1
2.0
2.2
1.4
2.8
1.9
2.5
3.2
2.4
2.0

¿3
2.3
1.5
34
2.4
2.9
3.4

2.7
2.6
1.7
3.8
2.6
3.2
37

6-95

7-95

1.5
0.4

3-95

2.9
1.3

4-95

5-95

V

' ' N.

Ti " * ^

.
-2.6
-0.3
0.3
-0.3
2.4
1.3
2.1
2.8
8-95

11

-6.3
........ 1; ■ 1

-1.1
-0.0
-0.7
2.6

3.2
1J2
5.0

2.2
-0.4
5.2

-2.8
6.8

17.3

1.3
2.2

2.8
3.7

2.5
3.6

2.6
4.0

5.4
6.3

-5.3
1.2

8.2

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

122.587
122.809
122515
124.157
123.594
124.410
4-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1, 1996

Civilian Employment and Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Millions of Persons

* Break in series. January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly
comparable with previous data.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminai
Month
10-94 11-94 12-94
11-94
12-94

3,2
2.5

1-95
2-95

1,9
1.9
2,0
1.4

3-95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7-95
8-95
9-95
10-95
11-95
12-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96
5-96

0.7
0.6
0.8
0.7
0.8
0.9
0.7
0.6
0,7
1.0
1.2
1.1

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

Initial Month
6-95 7-95 8-95

Thousands
of Persons
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96
124,417

1.7
1.2
1.5
1.7
1.1
0,3
0.2
0.5
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.5
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.0
1.1

124,595
0.7
1.4
1.7
0.9
0,0
-0.0
0.3
0.3
0.5
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.5
0.7
1,0
0.9

1.2
1.1
10-94 11-94 12-94




124,671
124,881

2.0
2.1
1.0

2.2
0.4

-02

-0.9
-0.8
-0.1
-0.0
0.2
0.4
0.2
0.1
0,3
0.6
0.9
0.8
1.0

-0.2
0.3
0.3
0.4
0.6
0.4
0.3
0.4
0.7
1.0
0.9
1.1
1-95

2-95

-1.3
-2.4
-1.7
-0,7
-0.5
-0.1
0.2

-3.5
-1.9
-0.5
-0.3
0.1
0.4

-0.1
-0.1
0,1
0.5
0.8
0.7
0.9

0,1
0.0
0.3
0.7

3-95

4-95

1.0
0.9
1.1

-0.3
2.6
1.1
1.4
0.8
11
1.5
1.2
1.6
0.7
1.0
0.7
0.5
0.8
0.9
1.1
1.3
1.5 ■ i l l
1.3
1.5
5-95

6-95

125,106
124,973
124,598
124,566
124,832
124,859
125,036
125,244

0.3
1.0
1.3
0.6
0.3
0.6
1.1
1.6
1.4
1.6
7-95

1.7
1.9
0.7
0.3
0,7
1.3
1.8
1.5

2.0
0.1
-0.2

-1.7
-1.3
-0.1
1.0

-0.8
0.8
1.9
2.6
2.0

2.4
3.3
3.8
2.7

4.3
4.5
2.8

4.8
2.1

-0.5

2.3
«¡1.7
8-95 9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

12

0.5
1.2
1.8
1.5

1.7
1.4
17

125,062
124,981
125,226
125,663
126,151
126,095
126,462
4-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1,1996

Payroll Employment
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions

Millions

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
10-94 11-94 12-94
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3*95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7*95
8-95
9-95
10-95

4.4
3.5
3.5
3.3
3.0
2.8
2.5
2.4
2.3
2.3
2.2
2.2

2.0
2.0

11-95
12-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96
5-96

2.1
2.1

1.9
2.0
1.8
2.0
2.0
2.0
2,1

2.6
3.1
2.9
2.7
2.5

3.5
3.1
2.7
2.5
2.1
2.1

1-95

2-95

2.0
1.9
1.9
1.9
1.7
2.0
1.9
1.9
2.0

2.6
2.4
2.1
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.6
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9

2.1
1.9
1.4
1.5
14
1.7
1.7
1.6
1.6
1.7
1.5
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.9

10-94 11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95

1.9
2.2
2.1
2.1

22.

22
2.1
2.0
2.1

1.9
2.1

Revised from 1988 to the present.



3-95

4-95

5-95

Initial Month
6-95 7-95 8-95

Thousands
9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96
115,665
115,913
116*250
116,502
116,701
116,861
116,907
117,100
117,201
117,499
117,623
117,749

1.7
1.1
1.4
1.3
1.6
1.6
1.5
1.5
1.6
1.4
1.8
1.7
1.7
1.9

0.5
1.2

3-95

4-95

12
1.6
1.6
1.5
1,5
1.6
1.4
1.8
1.8
1.7
1.9

2.0
1.5
2.0

10
2.1

3.1

18
1.7

22

2.0

1.6
1.8
1.4
1.9
19
1.8
2.0

1.8
1.9
1.5
2.0
2.0
1.9
2,1

1.3
1.3
1.4
1.6
1.2
1.8
1.8
1.8
2.0

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

1.8
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.5
1.9
1.9
1.9

1.9

1.3
1.4
1.8
1.1
2.0
1.9
1.9
2.1 :

1.5
2.0
1.1
2.1
2.0
2.0

2.4
0.9
2.3
2.1
2.0
2.3

-0.7
2.3
2.1
2.0
2.3

5.3
3.4
2.8

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

22

3.0

1.6
1.6
2.3

1.7
2.6

3.6

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1,1996

117,899
118,136
118,070
118,579
118,737
118,900
119248

Real Personal Income
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Real incomes are expressed in chained 1992 dollars.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Disposable Personal Income
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-94
12-94
1-95
2-95
3*95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7*95
8-95
9-95
10-95
11-95
12-95
1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96
$-96

10-94 11-94 12-94
-0.2
3.3
7.0
4.0
6.2
5.5
3.2
4.4
3.1
2.8
3.6
2.5
1.0
1.2 -0.2

1-95

2-95

1-4
2.2
2.7
2.1

3.0
3.0
3.1
3.4
2.9
3.1
2.9
2.1

2.6
2.7
2,8
3.1
2.6
2.8
2.7
1.8
2.6

2.3
2.5
2.9
2.4
2.6
2.5
1.6
2.4

10-94 11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95




5-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

0.8

2.3
2.9
3.3
2.7

2.8

4-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
4-96
4,842.6
4,870.0
4,891.6
4,894.8

1.3
-3.4
0.3
1.7
2.6
1.8
2.5
2.5
2.7
3.1
2.5
2.8
2.6
1.7
2.5

2.0
2.5
2.9
2.4
2.7
2.8
2.9
3.1
2.7
2.9
2.7
2.0
2.7

3-95

Initial Month
6-95 7-95 8-95

1.0
-2.0
0.4
1.5
2.3
1.7

22

-7.9
-0.2
1.9
2.9
1.9
2.7
2.7
2.9
3.3
2.6
2.9
2.7
1.7

8.3
7.1
6.8
4.5

6.0
6.1
3.3

2.6

4.9
4.6
4J5
4.8
3.9
4.1
3.7
2.5
3.5

3-95

4-95

4.1
3.9
3.9
4.3
3.4
3.6
3.3
2.0
3.1

6.1
2.0
3.4
3.4
3.5
4.0
3.0
3.3
3.0
1.6
2.8

-1.9
2.2
2.5
2.9
3.6
2.5
2.9
2.6
1.2
2.5

6.4
4.8
4.5
5.0
3.4
3.7
3.3
1.6
30

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

14

3.1
3.6
4.5
2.6
3.2
2.7
0.9
26

4,0
5.2
2.5
3.2
2.7
0.5
2.5

6.5
1.7
3.0
2.3
-0.2
2.2

-2.9
1.3
1,0
-1.8
1.4

5.6
3.0
-1.4
2.5

0.4
-4.7
1.5

-9.6
2.1

15,3

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

4,900,1
4,866.5
4,898.8
4,922.8
4,947.0
4,939.0
4,964.7
4,977.4
4,993.7
5,020.0
5,007.9
5,030.5
5,032.3
4,990.1
5,049.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1, 1996

Retail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data (1982-84=100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Retail Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
10-94 11-94 12-94
11*94
12-94

*2.1
-2.2

1-95
2-95
3*95
4-95
5-95
6-95
7*95
8-95
9-95
10-95
11-95
12-95

1.8
-2.4
-0.7
-1.4

1-96
2-96
3-96
4-96
5-96

1-95

2-95

3.9
-2.5
-0.3
-1.3
0.8
. 1.5
0.7
1.2
0.9
0.2
1.0
1.3

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

10.3
-2.7 -14.2

128.218
126.597

2.6
2.0
2.2

10-94 11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95

1.5
1.7

5-95

0.9
2.4
2.3
1.7
1.9

Billions of
1982-84
Dollars
127.413
127.177

0.2
-0.6
0.4
0.8
0.4
2.2
2.0
1.5
1.7

0.6
0.0
0.8
10
0.7
2.1
2.0

4-95

-2.2

6.7
0.6
4.3
4.6
2.7
3.1
2.4
1.2
2.2
2.5
1.8
3.7
3.4
2.7
2.9

0.4
1.0
0.4
0.9

3-95

Initial Month
6-95 7-95 8-95

0.3
-1.1
1.4
2.1
1.1
1.7
1.2
0.4
1,3
1.6
1.1
2.7

-4.3
-4.6
-0.6
0.5
*0.3
0.5

-5.1
32
3.9
1.7
2.5
1.7
0.5
1.7
2.0
1.4
3.4

12.1
8.7
4.1
4.4
3.1
1.5
2.7

3.1
2.4
2.6

2.9
2.1
4.3
3.9
3.0
32

3-95

4-95

Retail Sales are deflated using the CPI (1982-84=100).




127.280
126.727
5.3
0.3
2.0
1.0
-0.5
1.2
1.7
0.9
3.4
3.1
2.2
2.5
5-95

-4.5
0.4
-0.4
-2.0
0.4
1.1

5.4
1.7
-1.1
1.6
2.3

-2.0
-4.2
0.3
1.5

0.3
3.2
2.9
1.9
2.2

1.1
4.3
3.8
2.7
2.9

2.7

6-95

7-95

8-95

1C

0.3
4.2
3.6
2.3

-6.4
1.5
2.7
0.8
5.4
4.6
3.0
3.3

127.940
128.493
128.006
128.573
128.358
127.647
10.2
7.5
3.4
8.6
6.9
4.6
4.7

5.0
0.2
8.1

128.683
129.204
-4.4
9.7
3.2

26.0
12.4
5.8

3.6

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

111®i i l i
3.5
3.8

5.7

0.3
-3.0
-0.3

-6.2
“0.6

5.4

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

128.719
131.221
131252
130.556
131.128

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
li iIvy 1 1QOK

Total Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted

Ratio
1.60

Ratio
1.60

1.56

1.56

1.52-

1.52

1.48

- 1.48

- 1.44

- 1.40

1.36
1990
1991
1992
1993
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

1994

1995

1996

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Inventories and Sales
(Billions of Dollars)

1993
1994
1995
1995
April
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1996
January
February
March
April

Manufacturing
Shipments (1) Inventories (2)
3100.14
377.43
3364.60
391.81
3598.69
418.53

Retail Trade
Sales (1) Inventories (2)
2072.55
267.92
2227.76
290.60
2341.92
302.88

Total Business (3)
Sales (1) Inventories (2)
861.22
7113.29
7669.76
917.31
8193.71
976.02

295.29
297.09
298.71
293.47
303.02
304.28
302.40
303.73
305.91

405.68
408.29
410.01
412.42
413.15
416.18
417.44
417.59
418.53

192.37
194.73
196.08
195.47
196.72
196.64
196.19
197.91
199.10

299.80
300.38
300.52
299.04
302.70
303.30
306.22
307.27
302.88

672.96
678.68
683.08
676.09
687.69
689.80
688.23
693.21
699.91

951.08
955.68
959.45
963.36
968.06
972.59
978.40
979.58
976.02

301.42
303.81
304.66
309.85

421.32
422.20
421.52
421.71

199.13
203.39
204.23
203.93

304.37
304.82
302.15
302.49

693.42
701.26
704.27
711.25

981.95
982.60
980.12
984.10

1. Annual data are sums of monthly shipments/sales.
2. Annual data are end-of-year stocks.
3. Total business is the sum of manufacturing, retail trade and merchant wholesalers.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

16

Real Final Sales and Real GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Real final sales and real GDP are chain-weight quantity indexes scaled to 1992 dollars.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Final Sales of Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

2-91
*0.7
-0.4
1,8
1.8
2.0
2.4
2.0
1.9
2.0
2.2

22
2.2
2.4
2.5
2.3
2.3
2.4
2.3
2.4
2-91

3-91
-0.1
3.0
2.6
2.7
3.1
2.4
2.3

4-91

1-92

6.2
4.0

2-92

3.6
3.9
2,9
2.7
2.6
2.9
2.7
2.7

2.6
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.4

2.5

2.9
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.7

2.5

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

23
2.4
23

First quarter data are final estimates.




4-92

1-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
4-95
6,085.4
6,083.8
6,175.8

1.8
2,4
3.1
2.1
2.0
2.1
2.5

3.0
3.8
2.2
2.1
2.1
2.6
2.4
2.4
2.6
2.7
2.5
2.5
2.6
2.5
2.5

2.3
2.6
2.4
2.5
2.6
2.7
2.6
2.5
2.6
2.5

3-92

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

6,203.8
6,249,5
4.6
1.9
1.8
1.9
2.5
2.3
2.4

6,320.7
•0.8
0.3
1.0
2.0
1.8
2.0

1.5
1.9
2.9
2.5
2.5

2.5
2.4
2.5
2.4

2.3
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.3
2.3

2.8
2.9
2.7
2.6
2.6
2.6

2.8
2.8
3,1
3.2
2.8
2.7
2.8
2.7

2.5
3-92

2.3
4-92

2.6

2.7

2.7
2.8
2.7
2.8

1-93

2-93

3-93

2.6
2.7

6,307.7
6,331.6
2.3
3.6

6,368.2
6,444.1

* *
4.9
3.0
3.0
3.3
3.3

1.2
2.0
2.8
3.0
2.5
2.4
2.5
2.4

2.8
3.5
3.5
2.8
2.6
2.8
2.6

2,5

2,7

4-93

1-94

22

17

42
3.9
2.8
2.6
2.7
2.6

3.6
2.2
2.0
2.4
2.2
2.7 : 2.4
2-94

3-94

0.7
1.3
2.0

1.8
2.6
2.3

1.9
2.2

2.5

4-94

1-95

3.4
2.5

1.6

2.8 I; 2.5
2-95 3-95

3.3

6,464.0
6,509.0
6,576.8
6,635.2
6,647.5
6,677.4
6,733.3
6,760.5
6,815.3

4-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1, 1996

Components of Real GDP Growth Rate (1)

Real GDP

1996
1st
2.15

4th
0.49

1995
3rd
3.56

2nd
0.47

1st
0.62

4th
3.16

1994
3rd
3.57

2nd
4.81

Final Sales

3.27

1.62

3.37

1.80

0.74

3.57

4.18

2.80

-1.09

-0.98

0.16

-1.42

-0.17

-0.40

-0.61

2.11

2.44

0.81

1.90

2.28

0.52

2.22

1.72

2.41

1.56
1.28
0.28

0.57
0.33
0.24

0.89
0.54
0.34

-0.21
0.37
-0.55

1.19
1.48
-0.26

1.14
1.17
0.00

1.18
1.28
-0.08

1.17
0.67
0.49

Government Expenditures
Federal
State and Local

0.29
0.38
-0.11

-0.78
-0.94
0.17

-0.13
-0.43
0.31

0.17
-0.08
0.24

-0.22
-0.47
0.27

-0.26
-0.45
0.18

1.30
0.81
0.48

-0.16
-0.40
0.25

Net Exports
Exports
Imports

-1.06
0.24
-1.29

1.05
1.23
-0.18

0.75
0.89
-0.13

-0.46
0.51
-0.97

-0.79
0.29
-1.08

0.45
1.59
-1.12

-0.07
1.25
-1.31

-0.67
1.48
-2.12

Residual (2)

0.05

-0.19

-0.04

0.12

0.05

-0.02

0.02

-0.10

Change in Business
Inventories
Personal Consumption
Expenditures
Fixed Investment
Nonresidential
Residential

(1) Contribution of each component to the compound annual rate of real GDP growth in each quarter Indicated.
Elements may not sum to the total due to rounding.
(2) Residual line is calculated using the finest level of detail shown in the table.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3*01
“ “ “ w..
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

Billions of Chained
2-91
0.9
-0.0
2,1
21
2.3
2.8
2.5
2.5
2,7
2.7
2,7
2.7

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

4,119.5
-1.0
2.7
2.5
2.6
3.1
2.7
2.7
2.9
2.9

6.4
4.3
3.8
4.2

2.2

2M
3.5

2,7
2.8
2*6
2.7
2.7
2.6
2.7

3.3
3.3
3.2
3.2
3.1
3.1
3.1
2.9
3.0

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

First quarter data are final estimates.




2.9
4.1

3.0
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.9 .'3.1
3.1
2.9
2.9
3.0
3.1
3.0
2,9
3.0
3.0
3.0
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.9
2.7
2.7
2.8
28

3.5
3.4
3.4
3.4

2.8
2.9
2.9
2.9
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.3

4,109.1
4,173.8
4,196.4
4,226.7
4,282.3
4,290.0
4,319.0
4,359.7
4,390.0

2-92

V.
5.4
3.0
2.9
3.1
3.1
3.0
31

' ' :■

0.7
1.7
2.4
2.5

2.7
3.3
3.1

3.8
3.3

2,5
2.7

3.0
3.1

31
3.2

2,7
2.8

3,1
3.1
2.8
2.9
2.8
2.7
2.8

2Û

2.6
2.7

2.5

2.5
2.6

2.3

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3.0
3.0
2.8
2.9

2.5
2.6

2.9
2.7

2.6
2.5

2.8

2.6

3.0
3.1
2.8
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.8

3-92

4-92

1-93

2.8
2.7
3.0
3.0
26
2.7

2.7
3.1
3.0
2,6
2.7

4,418.8
4,457.7

3.6
3.1
3.1
2.7

'
2.9
22
2.5

1(üf

3.3
2.0
2.5
2.6
2.3
2.5

0.8
2.1
2,3
2.0
2.3

3.4
3.1
2.5
2.7

2.8
2.0
23

1.2
2.4

3.6

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

:

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1,1996

■ ;'

4,485.8
4,522.3
4,530.9
4,568.8
4,600.4
4,614.1
4,655.0

Real Residential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3*91. '
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
wW
4-94
1-95
2-95
---

4-95
1-96

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94

2-94

2-91
16.4
15.5
18J5
19.4
16.0
16.5
14.3
11.7
11.8
13.0
13,0
13.0
11.8
10.9
9.6
8.0
8.1
8.0
8.0

3-91

4-91

14.6
19.6
20.5
15.9
16.5
13.9
11.0
11.3
12.7
12.7
12.7
11.4
10.5
9.2
7.5
7.6
7.5
7.5

24,7
23.5
16,3
16.9
13.8
10.4
10.8
12.4
12.5
12.5
11.1
10.1
8.8
7.0
7.2
7.1
7.1

22.2
12.3
14.5
11,2
7.7
8.6
10.8
11.0
11.2
9,8
8.9
7.5
5.8
6.0
6.0
6.1

3.2
10.8
7.8
4.4
6.1
9.0
9.5
9.9
8,5
7.6
6.3
4.5
4.8
5.0
5.1

18.8
10.1
4.8
6.8
10.1
10.6
10.9
9.2
8.1
6.6
4.6
5.0
5.1
5.3

2.0
-1.6
3.1
8.1
9.0
9.6
7.9
6.9
5.3
3.3
3.8
4.0
4.3

-5.1
3.6
10.2
10.8
11.2
8.9
7.6
5.7
3.4
4.0
4.2
4.5

13,2
18.7
16.7
15.7
11.9
9.8
7.4
4.5
5.0
5.2
5.4

24.4
18.5
16.5
11.6
9.2
6.4
3.4
4.1
4.3
4.6

12.8
12.7
7.6
5.7
3.1
0.2
1.4
2.1
2.6

127
5.1
3.4
0.9
-2.1
-0.3
0.6
1.4

-1.9 WÊÊËIm
-1.0
0.0
-2.8 -3.2
-5.5 -6.7
-2,7 -3.0
-1.3 -1.2
0.2
-0.1

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

2-95

1-95

3-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
4-95
195.6

202.4
213.9

WÊÊË
224.9
■

ü

226.7
236.7
237.9
234.8
242.2
255.8

ij

mäßsä
,

3-94

,

*

- j

'
-6.4 f’' " '
-9.9 -13 3
-3.9 -2.7
-1.4
0.3
2.0
0.3

4-94

1-95

263.6
271.6

9.2
7.8
7.7

6.9

7.4

2-95

3-95

4-95

270.3
270.3
265.9
256.6
262.3
266.4
271.2

6.4

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1, 1996

First quarter data are final estimates.

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1*95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

2-91
-4.0
-4.1
-1.6
1.2
1.4
22

3-91
-4 2
*0.3
3.0
2.8
3.5
3.9
4.2
4.3
5.7
5.9
60

2.7
3.2
3.3
4.7
4.9
51
5.7
6.6
6.2
7.0
6.8 m m
6.6
7.3
6.5
7.2
6.3
6.9
7.2
6.6
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
4-95
545.3

539.5
3.7
6.8
5.2
55
5.6
5.7
5.6
7.0
7.0
70

10.0
6.0
2.2
4.2
61
6.1 " 4.8
6.1
5.2
5.1
5.9
7.1
7.5
7.5 H i l l
71
74

544.4
557.5
560.6
6.2
6.1
6.2
5.8
8.1
7.9
7.8

6.0
6.2
5.7
8.5
8.3
8.1

7.6
8.0
8,6
8.2
8.0
7.7
8.0

8.0
8.4
9,0
8.5
8.3
8.0
8.2

7.8
8.3

8.5
8.9

8.9
8.4
8,2
7.8
8.1

9.6
90
8.7
82
8.5

8.9
9.3
9.9
9.3
8.9
8.4
8.7

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

569.1
577.5
6.3

SM
9.4
8.8
8.5

586.4
4,6
10.9
9.7
9.1
10.0
10.3

593.1
17.6
12.3
10.6

9.2
8.6
8.9

111.0
10 1
9.5
8.9
9,2

12.1
10.9
10.2
9.4
9.7

7.3
7.2
9.3
10.1
11.1
9.8
9.1
8.4
8.8

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

9.4
9.8
10.4
97

its
11.5

First quarter data are final estimates.




10

7.1
10.4
11.0
12.1
103
9.4
8.5
9.0

13.7
13.0
13.8
11 1
9.9
8.8
9.3

1-94

2-94

12.2
13,8
10.3
9.0
7.8
8.5
3-94

15,3
9.3
7.9
6.7

73

3.6
4.4
4.0
6.0

5.2
4.2
6.8

3.1
7.7

12.4

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

617.6
628.6
639.5
660.4
679.7
704.4
710.6
719.7
725.3
746.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1, 1996

Real Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1*93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3*94
4-94
1*95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

2-91
-2.7
-2 1
-0.6
-0.5
0.2
0.5
-0.3
-0.2
*0.1
0.1
*0.3
-0.4

3-91
-1.4
0.5
0.3
0.9
1.1
0.1
0.1
0.2
0.4

0J2
01
-0.0
0.0
-0.0
-0 2
*01
2-91

*0.1
-0 2
0.4
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
-0.1
0.0
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

2.5
1.1

' i
-0.3

1.7
1.7
0.4
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.1
-0 0

1-3
1.5
/V 4

2.9
2.4
JV A
0.0
0.2
0.4

0.6
0.4
0.3
0.3
0.3
-0.0

-0.0
0.1
0.3
*0.2
-0 3
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.1
-0.2

0.1
4-91

-0.1
1-92

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

3-92

4-92 1-93
: O';.'mÊÈÊËBÊSKÈm

1-94

:--i,

i ¡§¡ i i i

-0 2
-0.3
0.5
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.1
-0 2
-0.0
2-92

t
1.9
-1.5
-0.9
-0.1
*0.7
-0.8
0.2
0.0
-0.1
-0.0
-0-1
-0.4
*0.3
3-92

»

3-94

2-94

¿

4-94

1-95

2-95

;

3-95
'

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
4-95
Annual Rates

1
, Ippp

'-m

..........

1.0
1.2
-0.6
-0 7
0.8
0.5
0.2
03
0.2
-0.2
-0.1

4-92

2-93

1-93

.

-

m
¡¡¡¡g

1.5
*1.4
-1 2
0.8
0.3
0.1
02
0.1
-0 4

-4.2
-2.5
0,6
0.1
-0.2
0.0
4U M
-0.6
-0.4

411 i
3-93 4-93

-0.8
_ _
3.0
15
0.9
09
0,6
-0.1
0.1
1-94

7.0
2.7
1.4
1.3

sm
00
0£
2-94

BBS

............

- ? :
dï'^ï:- -::x: :

-4.7
-2.3
0.2
*** ......... U.D
-0.5
0.9
-0.4
*1*3
-1 2 -0 5
0.7
-0.1
-0.2
0.4
*0.3
0.2
-0.2
0.3
0.2
-0.3
-0 6 -0.2
-0.4 •0.1

’ l,'7/ ' 1255.11

-1.4
-1.3
-0.5
-0.6
-1.3
-0.8

-11
-0.1
-0.3
-1.3
-0.7

3-94

4-94

First quarter data are final estimates.

0.9
&S8SS8
0.1
-1.3
•06
1-95

-0.7
-2.4
*1.1
2-95

u

^

1252.3
1249.7
1271.0
1266.6
1263.0
1265.8
1263.6
1250.4
1255.3

-4.1
*1.3
3-95

1250.7
1258.5
1257.5
1266.5
1272.5
1257.2
1257.9
1261.1
1265.7

1.6
4-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1, 1996

Real Federal Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91
1*92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

Billions of Chained
2-91
-7.7
-7 2

3-91

*5.3
-4.4

*4.1
-3.2
-1.2
-0.3
*2.6
-2.9
-2.9
-2.7

*2,6
-16
-3.3
-3.5
-3.5
-3.2
-3.9
-4.0

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94 2-94
536.3

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

-6.8

-2.9
-3.2
*3.4
-3 2
-3.4
-3.9
-3.4

-3.6
-3 7
*2.5
-2.8
-3.0
-2.9
-3.1
-3.7
-3.2

2-91

3-91

526.9
-1.4
-1.4
0.7
1.3
*1.7
-2.3
-2.4
-2.1
-3.2
-3.4
-2,1
-2.5
-2.7

-1.4
1.7
2.3
*1.8
-2.4
-2.5
-2.3
-3.4
-3.6

*22.

-2.6
-2.9
-3.5
-3.0

-2.5
*2.9
-2.7
-3.0
-3 6
-3.1

4-91

1-92

4.9
4.1

-3.2

3.4
-5,2 -13.0
-5.1 -9.1
-4.6 -7.1
-3.8 -5.5
-5.1 -6.7
-5.1 -6.4
-3.2 -4.1
-3.5 -4.3
-3.8 *4.5
-3.5 -4.2
-3.7 -4.3
-4.4 -5.1
-3.7 -4.3

-31
-3.4
-4.3
-3.5

*3.0
-1.8
-SO
-5.1
-2.0
-2.6
*32
-2.9
-33
-4.3
-3.4

2-92

3-92

1-93

2-93

-1.9
-2.7
-2.7
-2.4
-3.7
-3.9
-2.3
-2.7
-3.0
-2.8
-3.1
-3.8

4-92

-4.9
^.0
-2.9
-5.0
-5.1
-2.5
-3.0
-3.4

-0.7
*6.1 -11.2
-5.8 -8.2
«1.7 -2.1
-2.6 -3.1
l i l i -3.7
-2.9 -3.3

11.5
2.4
-0,6
-0.7

2ill!x
- IB
-5.9
-6.1
-4 5

-3.7

-1.2

-6.6
-4.2

-6.7
-3.7

-9.4 -12.8
-4.6 -3.9

4-94

1-95

2-95

>3.3
-4.4
-3.4

-3.7
-4.8
“3.7

-2.3
-3.9

-1.3
-3.7
-2.4

-6.5
-4.5

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

First quarter data are final estimates.




-5.2
2.8
-0.2
*1.7
-1.6

525.1
523.3
529.6
534.0
515.7
509.2
505.4
504.5
489.8
483.3
496.6
489.1
481.3
479.9

S.2
Í* .

3-95

5.8

472.7
456.8
463.3

4-95

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1,1996

20

Real Exports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-91
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

;

2M
79

13.9
I t » 10.0
59
7.2
I I S ! 6.0
5.3
6.0
5.0
mm
5.4
50
3.5
3.7
5.2
5.5
4.7
4.9
5.5
5.8

6.3
6.2
63
6.6
6.3

6.3
7.0
6.6
6.5
6.6
6.8
6.6

2-91

3-91

6,0
6.6

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

';

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

2-95

1-95

3-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
4-95
603.6
623.5
633.0
635.8
639.7
649.1
649.8
662.3
648.9
681.4
680.4
704.3

Stillili
' ' "¿'•S
.\

6.2
4.0
3.5
41

18
2.1
3.4
2.7
37

2.9
42

6.0
3.2
4.7

1.7
43

1.6
4.7

1.4
52

4.0
50

3.7
49

4.0
5.2

4.2
5.7

5.6
6.4

6.0
69
6.S
6.3
6.5
6.8
6.5 .

04

6.0

5.6
64
6.1
6.0
6.1
6.4
6.2

4-91

1-92

3.4
4.1
2.3
4.5

6.1
6.0
6.1
6.4

2.5
4.2

2-92

7.4
6.9
6.7
6.8
71

0.4 i 1 1 1
4.1
7.9
«0.0 .-(MM
5.0
6.5
4.7
3.8
5.6
67
6,5
76
7.0
6.8
6.9
7.2

7.6
86
7.8
75
7.5
7.8

6.7 u n i 7.3
3-92 4-92 1-93

;

•

-7.9
5.9
3*7
6.3
7.5
87
7.8
7.4
7.5
78
7.3
2-93

» III

21 6
.

m

' '-f '

*0.6
6.8

14.8
11.5
11.7 ' 8.6 13.5
12.4 10.2 14.1
10.7
8.6 11.1
9.7
9.8
8.0
9.6
8.0 . 9.5
97
97
83
8.7
8.9
7.6
3-93

4-93

1-94

1£2
137
9.9
8.5

2.6
36
5.0
65

7.8

153
8.7
7.3
7.5
8.2
7,1

2-94

3-94

.MA
88

46

5.6

7.8
6.4

8.0
9.5
6.9

11.1
6.4

2.0

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

724.8
751.0
755.8
764.3
779.1
799.8
803.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
lulu 1,
1 1996
1QQR
July

First quarter data are final estimates.

Real Imports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Chained
2-91

3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1*94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2 95
3-95
4-95
1-96

10.8
7.9
6.6
8.2
6,8
7.6
7.9
8.7
8.3
9.1
9.0
9.8

3-91
51
4.6
7.4
5.9
7.0
7.4
8.4
7.9
8.9
8.8
9.7

9.7
9.6
9.1
8.6
8.7

9.8
9.7
9.7
9.5
9.0
8.5
8.6

2-91

3-91

9.9
9.8

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
633.4
641.4

4.1
8.6

13.3
7.1
8.6
8.8
10.0
9.1
102
9.8
10.8

1.3
63
7.4
7.9
9.1
8.9
8.3
8.4
9.7
9.4
9.4
9.2
10.5
10.1
11111III ?10.6
10.1 10.7 10.4
10.0 10.5 10.3
9 9 10.3 10 1
9.6
9.3
9.2
9.0
87
8.8
8.8
6.8
9.1
6.1
7.4

4-91

1-92

2-92

647.8
668.3
670.5
689.1

11.6
10.6
11.9
10.1
11.4
10.8
11.9

10.6
12.0

11.8
11 5

11.8
11 5

11.2
109

112

9.6
12.0
9.6
11.4

SA

10.8
9.9
9.2
9.2

3-92

4-92

mo
9.3

14.5
9.6
12.0
10.9
12.5

4.9
107
9.7
11.9

17.0
12.2
144

11.8
11.3

135
12.7
12.0
11.4

9.1
9.2

11.0
10.5
9.4
8.6
8.7

10.0
9.0
9.1

1-93

2-93

3-93

12.2
11.8
11.4
11.0

First quarter data are final estimates.




91

7.6
13 1 19.0
12.4 15.0
11.6 13.0
11.0 11.9
105 11.1
9.3
9.1
8.1
8.1
8.4
8.3
4-93 1-94

705.1
729.4
738.1
767.6
781.7
816.5

11.0
10.1

7.5
6.4
7.0

9.2
90
8.5
6.6
5.5
6.3

8.7
8.2
5.7
4.6
S.7

2-94

3-94

4-94

9.6
9.1

7.7
4.3
3.3

sa

1.0
1.2
4.1

1.3
5.7

102

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

838.1
856.8
874.9
891.2
893.4
896.4
918.4

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1, 1996

Trade and Current Account Balances
Current Prices
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

The goods and services trade balance and the current account are for the current plus 3 previous quarters
until 1993. Since 1993, the goods and services trade balance uses the current plus previous 11 months.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

U.S. International Transactions
(Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted)
1-96

4-95

3-95

2-95

1-95

4-94

3-94

204,934
47,983

203,615
46,513

199,210
45,269

194,718
46,779

188,986
44,100

184,126
39,368

177,075
37,212

Imports
Goods and Services
-229,286
Income Payments on Foreign Assets in the U.S. -48,378

-223,006
-48,403

-223,545
-49,630

-226,542
-47,641

-218,501
-45,000

-211,472
-42,462

-205,522
-38,801

Exports
Goods and Services
Income Receipts on U.S. Assets Abroad

Balance on Current Account

-35,588

-30,435

-37,688

-40,976

-39,054

-42,655

-40,011

Change in U.S. Assets Abroad
U.S. Official Reserve Assets
U.S. Private Assets

-55,732
17
-55,801

-98,214
191
-98,206

-39,595
-1,893
-37,954

-108,299
-2,722
-105,398

-61,747
-5,318
-56,275

-59,603
2,033
-60,693

-25,569
-165
-25,116

98,816
51,582
47,234

99,229
11,369
87,860

118,816
39,186
79,630

115,421
37,380
78,041

90,995
21,822
69,173

72,632
266
72,366

83,619
19,785
63,834

Change in Foreign Assets in the U.S.
Foreign Official Assets
Other Foreign Assets

Note: Negative values indicate dollar outflows from the United States.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

22

Gross Saving as a Percent of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving plus government surplus and consumption of fixed capital.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Saving and Investment
(Billions of Dollars and Percent of GDP)
Gross
Private Saving

Gross
Government
Saving

Gross
Private Domestic
Investment

Gross
Gov't Domestic
Investment

1993: 1
2
3
4

Billion
982.2
955.1
964.3
956.2

Billion
-71.5
-27.1
-24.0
18.4

Percent
-1.1
-0.4
-0.4
0.3

Billion
843.6
855.9
873.8
911.2

Billion
207.1

Percent
3.2

210.6
209.8
214.7

1994: 1
2
3
4

1014.2
996.0
1001.1
1012.8

15.0
14.5
14.3
14.3

20.6
73.8
53.3
52.0

0.3
1.1
0.8
0.7

957.6
1016.5
1033.6
1050.1

14.1
14.8
14.8
14.8

1995: 1
2
3
4

1039.9
1007.3
1076.1
1126.6

14.5
14.0
14.7
15.3

70.5
85.0
79.6
81.3

1.0
1.2
1.1
1.1

1072.0
1050.3
1074.8
1064.0

1996: 1

1123.6

15.1

83.9

1.1

1068.9

Percent
15.2
14.7
14.7
14.3

Percent
13.1
13.2
13.3
13.6

Net
Foreign
Investment

3.2
3.2
3.2

Billion
-59.4
-83.4
-94.7
-115.2

Percent
-0.9
-1.3
-1.4
-1.7

207.3
208.5
217.2
216.3

3.1
3.0
3.1
3.1

-109.0
-137.7
-149.6
-161.9

-1.6
-2.0
-2.1
-2.3

15.0
14.6
14.7
14.5

219.1
223.7
224.7
220.1

3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0

-144.4
-160.1
-148.9
-111.0

-2.0
-2.2
-2.0
-1.5

14.4

228.8

3.1

-129.8

-1.7

Note: Gross private and government saving equals gross private, government, and net foreign investment minus a statistical discrepancy.
Net Foreign Investment Is the excess of U.S. investment abroad over foreign investment in the U.S..



Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

23

Corporate Profits After Tax
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93
3-93
4-93

7.5
10.5
12.3

10.4

3.8
8.8
11.6

10.9
15.8
18.0

38.9
38.7
36.8

6.1

17.8

15.2

11.2
14.6
16.4

19.1

28.1

2-94

11.0

13.2

13.9

10.0

14.5

26.7

14.1

18.2

4-94

10.9

12.7

13.3

10.0

13.6
10.3

22.8
18.5
17.3

13.1
9.7
9.2

13.3
13.7

19.6
19.6

12.9
13-4

15.8
11.6
10.9
15.1
14.6
15.0

2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

8.8
11.3
11.2
11.7

10.2
12.9
12.7

10.5
13.3
13.1

7.6
10.7
10.7

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

286.4
310.3
331.1

33.7 29.6
*0.9 -15.9 -45.5
18.3 12.4
4.6 100.9
11.6
6.2 48.2
15.5 11.4
7.3 34.5
2.7 20.3
10.7
10.0
6.6
3.1 17.2
14.8 12.2
9.9
14.3 11.9
9.9 21.5
14.8 12.7 11.0 21.3

9.4
10.0
1.4
2.4
12.1
11.7
12.9

10.7
-2.4 -13.9
0.2 -4.7
12.7 13.4
12.2 12.6
13.5 14.0

5.4
30.1
23.0
22.3

60.8
33.0
28.5

10.0
14.9

20.1

2-93

2-94

3-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

3-93

4-93

1-94

338.7

4-94

Corporate Profits After Tax with Capital Consumption and Inventory Valuation Adjustments.
First quarter data are final estimates.

355.3
342.3
346.8
390.5
399.9
418.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1,1996

Corporate Profits and Net Cash Flow
(Billions of Dollars)
Inventory
Valuation
Adjustment

Corporate
Profits(l)

After-Tax
Profits(1)

Dividends

Capital
Consumption

273.4
258.3
223.8
278.0

162.1
164.6
170.9
180.4

395.5
398.7
414.7
403.1

0.3
-21.9

3
4

417.3
409.3
351.3
427.7

1993: 1
2
3
4

426.4
449.0
469.6
512.8

274.9
286.4
310.3
331.1

190.2
195.8
200.2
202.9

1994: 1
2
3
4

455.9
531.5
549.8
568.9

284.5
338.7
346.4
355.3

1995: 1
2
3
4

559.6
561.1
614.9
618.6

1996: 1

652.0

1992: 1
2

Capital
Consumption
Adjustment

Net
Cash Flow

8.6
0.2

5.9
5.0
- 8.1
7.2

506.5
514.3
476.1
500.6

409.5
414.2
422.7
421.4

-14.6
-15.6
7.9
-4.0

5.0
5.8
3.8
12.3

508.8
520.4
524.9
553.5

204.4
208.8
212.5
218.5

455.4
432.2
437.1
439.3

-3.9
-9.8
-16.5
- 22.8

11.8
18.1
18.8
21.3

539.4
572.0
587.6
598.8

342.3
346.8
390.5
399.9

221.7
224.6
228.5
234.7

444.4
451.3
456.9
463.6

-51.9
-42.3
-9.3
- 8.8

17.4
15.0
14.6
16.5

616.9
615.8
628.2
637.6

418.6

239.9

465.6

-17.4

20.4

661.7

-

-

(1) Profits data includes the Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment.
The latter is the excess of depreciation allowances over Capital Consumption.
Net Cash Flow equals After-Tax Corporate Profits less Dividends, less the Inventory Valuation Adjustment, plus Capital Consumption.



Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis

24

Government Deficit(-)/Surplus( + )
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

National income accounts basis

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Government Debt
(Billions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals

1993: March
June
September
December

Gross
Federal
Debt
4234.6
4349.4
4425.7
4519.4

Federal Debt held
by Agencies
and Trusts
1061.4
1088.2
1119.4
1142.8

Net
Federal
Debt
3173.9
3263.1
3307.0
3373.4

Federal Debt
held by Federal
Reserve Banks
311.4
324.6
330.1
337.5

Federal Debt
Federal Debt
held by Private held by Foreign
Investors
Investors
2875.4
562.1
2949.9
570.9
2993.0
593.8
3046.4
619.2

1994: March
June
September
December

4582.0
4641.1
4707.1
4784.3

1162.4
1190.2
1215.4
1245.9

3420.0
3452.4
3493.2
3535.0

349.2
352.7
360.4
367.6

3074.0
3099.7
3138.2
3167.1

630.7
637.3
657.9
684.4

1995: March
June
September
December

4871.4
4944.9
4989.4
4972.9

1277.7
1302.5
1322.9
1293.5

3594.4
3643.6
3668.4
3675.8

376.1
382.7
380.1
384.6

3217.7
3256.6
3290.8
3293.8

725.8
790.0
850.8
856.3

1996: March

5125.8

1378.7

3748.1

387.8

3360.4

925.8

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus
net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors).
Sources: Orginal data may be found in the TREASURY BULLETIN and also in the FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN; seasonally adjusted series prepared
by this Bank.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

25

Government Budgets
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)
Federal

Federal, State and Local

1992:1
2
3
4

Receipts
1183.4
1193.1
1187.0
1230.5

Expenditures
1450.7
1472.8
1484.5
1509.5

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-267.4
-279.6
-297.5
-279.0

Receipts
1841.4
1858.9
1860.1
1921.8

Expenditures
2024.0
2051.9
2075.7
2109.1

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-182.6
-193.0
-215.5
-187.3

Grants-in-Aid (1)
165.4
173.0
174.2
176.3

1993:1
2
3
4

1225.2
1271.3
1280.3
1324.4

1508.9
1520.5
1533.8
1556.8

-283.7
-249.2
-253.5
-232.4

1916.8
1977.4
1995.0
2057.1

2120.0
2137.5
2153.6
2174.5

-203.2
-160.1
-158.6
-117.4

177.3
181.5
187.2
197.0

1994:1
2
3
4

1321.9
1382.8
1387.1
1416.3

1534.7
1552.7
1573.5
1606.8

-212.9
-169.9
-186.3
-190.4

2053.3
2129.1
2143.3
2184.4

2171.4
2193.8
2230.0
2275.6

-118.1
-64.7
-86.7
-91.1

192.2
197.5
196.9
196.9

1995:1
2
3
4

1449.3
1483.2
1486.6
1494.7

1622.6
1643.8
1648.1
1649.7

-173.3
-160.5
-161.6
-154.9

2224.4
2266.7
2284.2
2298.6

2298.7
2328.2
2351.8
2365.4

-74.4
-61.5
-67.7
-66.8

205.8
211.3
203.8
203.3

1996:1

1523.1

1678.6

-155.5

2338.5

2403.0

-64.5

207.6

(1) Federal Grants-in-Aid to state and local government are part of federal expenditures and state and local receipts, but are netted out in computing total
government measures.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Budgets
Fiscal Years
(Billions of Dollars; Unified Budget Basis)

Calendar Years
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)

1990

Receipts
1031.3

Outlays
1252.5

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-221.4

1991

1054.3

1323.6

-269.2

1149.0

1345.0

-196.0

1992

1090.5

1380.9

-290.4

1198.5

1479.4

-280.9

1993

1153.5

1408.7

-255.1

1275.3

1530.0

-254.7

1994

1257.5

1460.8

-203.4

J 377.0

1566.9

-189.9

1995

1350.6

1519.1

-163.8

1478.4

1641.0

-162.6

Receipts
1129.8

Expenditures
1284.5

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-154.7

Note: Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off budget.




Prepared by Federal Resen/e Bank of St. Louis

26

Federal Government Receipts
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91
1-92
2-92
3-92
4-92
1*93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95
1-96

2-91
3.4
3.2
4.8
4.4
3,1
5.1
4.1
5.5
5.2
6.1
5,4
6.6
6.1
6.3
63
6.7
6.4
6.2
62

3-91

5.6
6.9
6.4
6.6
6.8
7.0
6.6
6.3
6.4

8.0
5.6
30
6.0
4.4
6.2
5.8
6.8
5.9
7.2
6.7
6.9
7.1
7.3
6.8
6.5
6.6

2-91

3-91

4-91

4-91

1-92

3-92

2-92

4-92

1-93

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95
1,152.3
1,160.9
1,183.4
1,193.1
1,187.0
1,230.5
1,225.2
1,271.3

f i l l i 111
3.0
5.5
4.7
3,0
5.4
4.2
5.8
5.4
6.4

''i' " '

:

3.3
0.6
5.3
3.5
59
5.4
6.6

-2.0
6.4
3.6
66

WÈÊSÊÊ
15.5
6£
9.6
7.9
9.2

6.5

7.0
6.7
6.7

7Â

-1.7
67
5.4
76
5,9
8.1
71
7.3
7.5
7.8
7.1
6.7
6.8

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

5.8
7.2

6.7
72

6.0
7.7

6.6
6.8
7.0
7.2
6.7
6.4

6.9
7.1
7.3
7.5

-

74
9.1
8.1
8.2
8.3
8.4
7.8
7.3

'
159
04

8.6
8.6
0.0
8.9
8.0
7.5

2.9
8.5
5.3
8.8
7.2
7.5
7.8
8.0
7.2
6.7

7.5

6.8

8.6
8.8
7.8
7.1
72

1-93

2-93

3-93

10.9
7.9
10.2

''
14.5
6.6
10.8
8.3
8.4

1280.3
1,324.4

-

-0.8
9.0
6.4
6.9

19.7
10.1
9.6

12
4.9

7.5 - 0 ft V A 5
7.8
9.6
7.3
6.8
8.1
6.0
6.2
7.3
5.3
6.4
7.3
5.7
1-94

4-93

2-94

H

£

8.7

2 Ô /, m <
¿Ô
sSmmm

-

9.3
7.2
6.2
6.4

9.7
6.7
5.5
6.0

9.7
5.2
4.2
5,1

0.9
1.6
3.6

5.0

73

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

2.2

1,321.9
1,382.8
1,387.1
1,416.3
1,449.3
1,483.2
1,486.6
1,494.7
1323.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1, 1996

First quarter data are final estimates.

Federal Government Current Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

Billions of Dollars
2-91

3-91

1-92
2-92

112
10.0

3-92
4-92

8.6
8.3

10.2
127
10.5
8.7
8.3

1-93
2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94
2-94

7.1
6.6
62
6.2
5-1
5.1

6.8
6.3
6.0
6.0
4.8
4.8

3-94
4-94

5.1
5.3

1-95
2-95

5,3
5.3
5.0
4.7
4.9

3-95
4-95
1-96

2-91

2-92

8.1
7.8
6.2
5.7

4.Ö
3.8

5.4
5.5
4.2
4.2

3.8
4.1
2.9
3.1

3.2
3.3
3.8
2.4
2.7

4.8 r 4.3
4.7
5.1
5.0
4.6
4.7
5.1
4.8
4.5
4.5
4.2
4.7
4.4

3.3
3.8

3.0
3.5

3.8
3.9
3.7
3.5
37
1-92

4-91

4-92

1-93

' 'v''

16.4
107

6.2
4.7
5.4

3-91

3-92

3.2
5.0

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95 2-95 3-95 4-95
¿
, * w ,..... ; ■ ■

ff, i

6.9
-02
1.5

3.6
3.7
3.5
3.3
3.6

3.3
3.2
3.3
3.9
2.2
2.6
30
3.6
3.6
3.8
3.5
3.3
3.6

2-92

3-92

4-92

22
3.1
14
1.9
2.4
3.2
32
3.5
32
3.0
3.3

•
3.1

1-93

1,366.3
1,399.8
1,450.7
1,472.8
1,484.5
1,509.5
1,520.5

3.3
3J5
4.3
4.8
1.7 ¡112:'
2.3
2.1
2.8
2.8
3.7
3.7
3.7
3.8
4.0
3.9
3.6
36
3.3
3.3
3.7
3.6
2-93

lillipt

1,533.8
1,556.8
1,534.7
1,552.7

6.1

mÊm

0.1
1.6
2,6
3.8
3.8
4.0
3.7
3.3
3.7

-5.6
-0.5
1.4
3.2

5.1
6.3

5.5
7.1

8.7

3.4
3.7

5.7
5.6

3.3
2.9
3.4

4.9
4.2
4.6

6.0
5.9
4.9
4.1
4.6

6.3
6.0
4.7
3.9
4.4

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

First quarter data are final estimates.




Annual Rates
1-94

o>

8.3
9.2

1-92

r*

3-91
4-91

4-91

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

9"7

4.8

*!

*
4,0
4.7
3.4
2.7
3 j6
4-94

5.3
32
2.2
3.5

1.1
0.7
2.8

0.4
3.7

7.2

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1,573.5
1,606.8
1,622.6
1,643.8
1,648.1
1,649.7
1,678.6

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
July 1,1996

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, Missouri 63166

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