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IcTrends

A New NET
Longtime National Economic Trends readers may
be startled when they open this issue. The publica­
tion has been redesigned from the ground up to pro­
vide a comprehensive monthly briefing on the state
of the U.S. economy. The inside pages still focus on
reporting rather than analyzing data, but we think the
data speak much more clearly in the new format.
Here are some of the new features we think will
make NET more useful: (1) Growth triangles are gone
and charts now dominate. Given the ready electronic
availability of the numbers themselves, an emphasis
on visual presentation seemed appropriate. (2) Most
sections show a 25-year view on the left side. This
should help keep the short-run movements shown on
the right in the proper perspective. (3) Although the
publication has not grown physically, the new presen­
tation lets us cover a broader selection of data.
(4) The charts are designed to facilitate comparisons
among data series; almost all of the long-run charts,
for example, cover the same period. (5) Quick-reference tables at the end of the publication show both
levels and growth rates of many of the most impor­
tant data series. (6) N ET is now available in
electronic form on our World Wide Web server
at http://www.stls.frb.org. Starting in the next few
weeks, the electronic version will be updated within a
day or two after new data are released.
Our coverage of asset markets and international trade
has expanded the most. NET now devotes page 7 to
showing general movements in interest rates and equity
returns. (Our sister publications, Monetary Trends and
U.S. Financial Data, cover financial markets more com­
prehensively.) The international section (pages 18 and 19)
now includes exchange rates, GDP growth rates for six
major trading partners, the balance on investment income
and a more detailed look at trade in goods and services.
Throughout the publication, we have tried in vari­
ous ways to emphasize the uncertainty associated

with high-frequency economic data. The most
important way we do this is by contrasting long-run
perspectives with short-run views that do not smooth
away the sometimes dramatic (and often uninforma­
tive) month-to-month or quarter-to-quarter variation.
Two other examples: The chart in the upper right comer
of page 5 shows the uncertainty associated with early
reports on GDP growth. (We also plan to include
charts that report on benchmark revisions of major
data series.) Likewise, on page 11, confidence bands
for household survey employment and the unemploy­
ment rate show how sampling variation affects
these estimates.
Over the next few months, we expect cover essays
to delve into the new data shown inside, explaining
what they are and why we think they are interesting.
Indeed, this process has been under way for some
time: A number of the new charts were inspired by
recent cover essays.
The long-run views that N ET now provides make
Annual U.S. Economic Data largely redundant, so it
has been discontinued.
As always, except for a handful of proprietary
series (those provided by the OECD), the data con­
tained in this publication are also available electroni­
cally on FRED, our electronic database. Instructions
for reaching FRED can be found at the bottom of page 2.
Your comments and suggestions are welcome.
Please send them to:
Editor
National Economic Trends
Research Division
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
Post Office Box 442
St. Louis, MO 63166
or
webmaster @stls.frb.org

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions of the Federal Reserve System



Tabi eofCon ten ts
Page
3

Econom y at a glance

4

Output and growth

7

Interest rates

8

Inflation and prices

10

Labor markets

12

C onsum er spending

14

Investment spending

16

G overnm ent revenues, spending, and debt

18

International trade

20

Productivity and profits

22

Q uick reference tables

27

Notes and sources

Conventions used in this publication:
1. Charts and tables contain data that was current on January 6, 1997.
2. Shaded areas indicate recessions, as determined by the National Bureau of Economic Research.
3. Percent change refers to simple percent changes. Percent change from year ago refers to the percent change from
the same month or quarter in the previous year. The percent change at annual rate shows what the growth rate
would be over an entire year if the same simple percent change continued for four quarters or twelve months. The
percent change at annual rate of X between the previous quarter t-1 and the current quarter t is:

For monthly data replace 4 with 12.
4. All data with significant seasonal patterns are seasonally adjusted, unless labeled NSA.

National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please call (314) 444-8573.
Single-copy subscriptions are available free of charge by writing to the Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, Post Office Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442
or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included on the Federal Reserve Economic Data (FRED) electronic bulletin board at
(314) 621-1824 or Internet World Wide Web server at http://www.stls.frb.org/fred.




National Economicïïends

Real GDP Growth

Consumer Price Index

Percent change at annual rate
5-

Percent change
0.5 - .................

0 .4 -

' 1 T ........................... I............................ I............................ I............................I
1993
1994
1995
1996

1993

Industrial Production

1995

1996

Interest Rates

Percent change

1994

Percent

1.8

-

.........................................................................

1993

1994

1995

1996

2 1....................... I....................... I....................... I...............
1993

1994

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

8

1996

1995

1996

Unemployment Rate

Thousands
600 -

1995

Percent of labor force

1993




1994

1995

1996

-

1993

1994

3

Nat iona IEconomic Tren ds

Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent change from year ago
10

industrial Production and Purchasing Managers’ (NAPM) Indexes
Percent change from year ago

Index

18 - ......................
12

-

Industrial Production

6

-

-1 2

-

-

NAPM
(— ►)

“ 18 1 .....1 1
...... .....
71

72

73

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours
Percent change from year ago
12

-4

Real Change in Business Inventories
Percent of GDP
2

-




National EconomicTrends

Real Final Sales and GDP

Real GDP Revisions

Percent change at annual rate
5 - ....

6 —,—

Percent change at annual rate
GDP (bar)

I

Advance
..I Preliminary
Final

4—

I

01994

1995

1996

95:3

Percent change
- .......................................

96:1

96:2

96:3

Nominal Gross Domestic Product

Industrial Production and NAPM Index
1.8

95:4

Index
—

68

- 62

Percent change at annual rate
8

-

.................... - ..........................................................................................................

6-

1994

1995

Aggregate Private Nonfarm Hours

Average Weekly Private Nonfarm Hours

Percent change
4-

1996

Hours
35.0 -

33.5 -[...............................I............................... I....................
1994
1995
1996

Real Change in Business Inventories

Inventory-Sales Ratio

Billions of 1992 dollars
80 -

Manufacturing and trade
1.46 -




5

National EconomicTrends

Contribution of Components to Real GDP Growth
Percent change at annual rate
6

-

-3
94Q4

95Q1

95Q2

95Q4

95Q3

Consumption

Exports

Imports

96Q1

Inventories

96Q2

96Q3
Real GDP

I _____ I Government
_
Investment

Contributions to Real GDP Growth Rate
1994
4th

|
:

1996

1995
1st

2nd

3rd

4th

1st

2nd

3rd

Real GDP

2.98

0.43

0.75

3.80

0.25

!

2.00

4.67

2.10

Final Sales

3.42

0.55

2.1 1

3.56

1.35

I

3.04

4.15

0.47

-0 .5 0

-0 .0 9

0.15

-1 .0 8

-1 .0 3

0.59

1.60

Consumption

2.10

0.65

1.65

0.71

2.36

2.28

0.34

Fixed Investment
Nonresidential
Residential

1.14

1.19

0.85

0.51

1.47

1.05

1.54

Change in Inventory

Government
Federal
State and Local
Net Exports
Exports
Imports
Residual

6


-1 .4 3
2.1 1
-0 .2 3

!

1.16

1.49

0.36

0.51

0.26

1.19

0.41

1.80

-0 .0 0

-0 .2 6

-0 .5 6

0.34

0.24

0.28

0.61

-0 .2 2

-0 .2 8

! -0 .2 3

-0 .4 5

I

0.15

-0 .1 1

-0 .8 1

0.30

1.39

-0 .1 2

-0 .4 9

-0 .1 0

-0 .4 1

-0 .9 6

0.40

0.62

-0 .2 4

0.19

0.26

0.25

0.31

0.17

-0 .1 1

0.76

0.13

0.44

-1 .0 8

0.07

1.19

0.99

-1 .1 2

-0 .6 3

-1 .3 1

1.70

0.28

0.65

1.18

1.19

0.21

0.66

-0 .1 0

- 1 .2 4

-1 .3 6

-0 .5 8

0.00

-0 .2 1

-1 .3 3

- 1 .2 8

-1 .2 1

0.04

! -0 .0 3

0.07

0.03

-0 .0 6

0.04

-0 .0 3

0.01

I
I
I
i

National EconomicTrends

Interest Rates
Percent
18 —
.....................

Treasury Yield Curve
Percent
7.0 - ..................................

Total Return on Standard and Poor’s 500
Percent change from year ago
75 -

................. wrsw




7

tiationalEconomicTrends

GDP Chain Price Index
Percent change from year ago

01

71

I

72

I

73

1

74

I

75

I

76

I

77

I

78

I

79

I

80

I

81

T~ 1
82

Consumer Price Index
Percent change from year ago

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods
Percent change from year ago

Employment Cost Index and Compensation per Hour
Percent change from year ago
15 -

................

* pm

8



t

....................................... m m .....

83

I

84

I

85

I

86

I

87

I

88

I

89

I

90

I

91

I

92

I

93

I

94

I

95

I

96

I

HationaìEconomicTrends

GDP Chain Price Index

Crude Oil Price

Percent change at annual rate

Dollars per barrel

4 - ..............................................

28 - ........................

3-

2-

ill llllll
1994

1995

1996

121

1991

[

1992

1 1993

[

1994

1 1995

1 1996

Consumption Chain Price Index

Consumer Price Index
Percent change

Percent change at annual rate

0.5 - ..................

4 - ...........................................................

Excl. Food & Energy

CPI (bar)

1995

1996

1994

1994

Producer Price Index, Finished Goods

1996

1995

1996

Unit Labor Cost

Percent change

1995

Percent change at annual rate

0.75 -

Employment Cost Index

Compensation per Hour

Percent change from year ago

Percent change at annual rate

8

5 - ..............................................

-

......................................................................................

1991

1 1992




1993

1 1994

1 1995

1 1996

1994

9

HationalEconomicTrends

Employment
Percent change from year ago
8-

•4 t

71

r

72

i

73

1
“

74

f

75

t

76

" li m"

T

77

I

78

I

79

PÄ
...i....................... I
.......i.......I
........[.......I
....... I.......i.... !i ...... i
80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

I

93

i.......I
.......i......
94

95

96

Unemployment, Labor Force Participation and Employment Rates
Percent of labor force
15 -

Percent of population
............................ - 70

Duration of Unemployment
Percent of labor force
4.50 -


10


Weeks
- 16

National EconomicJrends

Change in Nonfarm Payrolls

Change in Manufacturing Payrolls

Thousands

Thousands
60 - ............................................................

600 - ................................................

1994

1995

1996

Change in Household Employment

Labor Force and Population

Thousands

Percent change from year ago

750 - ..........................-.................................

2.0

-

....................................................................

Labor

I.I 1 1 1 1 1 1 itili I
.1 .1
' 1
i
1

1

- 5001 ............................. r.............................I..................
1994

1995

1996

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

Unemployment Rate

Help-Wanted Advertising

Percent

Index
Percent
9 0 - ..........................................................* ..............................- 8.0

7.0 -

75 ' Unemployment Rate

J

V

~ 65

60 - ......* V v ..........................................................................- 5.0
Help-wanted
45 1............................. 1
............................. 1
..................
1994




1995

1996

55 i ...............i...............i...............i............... i...............i...............r 4 5
1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

11

National EconomicTrends

Real Disposable Income
Percent change from year ago, quarterly data
12

- ..........................................

71

72

73

74

75

76

77

78

79

80

81

82

83

84

85

86

87

88

89

90

91

92

93

94

95

96

Real Consumption
Percent change from year ago
30 -

Percent change from year ago
-

21

■071 i....i....r"'i 75 76 i....I78 i....r80 i..H82 i....i....i....i....l...i....r....i. f ...i....t....i....i....i....r - 1
2 1. 72 73 74: ....i.... 77 .... 79 . 81
..
.
m
4
83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96

Retail Sales
Percent change from year ago of quarterly average

Debt Service as Percent of Disposable Income
Percent

12



Percent

National Economic Trends

Real Disposable Income

Personal Saving Rate

Percent change

Percent
8-

4 - ...........................................

Quarterly

....................
- 6 -[............................... i............................... 1
1994

1995

1996

Real Consumption

Real Durables Consumption
Percent change

Percent change

7.5 5.0 -

Quarterly
2.5 -

0.0 - |
2.5 5.0 -r
1994

1995

Retail Sales
Percent change

1996

1994

1995

1996

Total Auto and Light Truck Sales
Millions of vehicles, annual rate
16 -

id ~\........... 7T.............]............................. I..................
1994

1995

Retail Sales

Consumer Sentiment (U, of Michigan)

Billions of dollars, not seasonally adjusted

1996

Index

250 - .............................................................




60

................ï................ f................T
................ [............... ]................ ï
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

13

National EconomicTrends

Real Investment
Percent of GDP

Real Private Fixed Investment
Percent change from year ago

Percent change from year ago

Real Residential Investment
Percent change from year ago


14


National EconomicTrends

Gross Saving Rates and Net Foreign Investment
Percent of GDP
2 2 - .......................... m

Forcent of GDP
u l i

m ........... '¿ s s k t t

................................................................................ w

................................................................

Real Private Fixed Investment

Nondefense Capital Goods Orders

Percent change at annual rate

Percent change from year ago, excluding aircraft

12 -

8

30-

.....................................................................................................

1994

1995

1996

■20 -|............... I................ j................ y................ I................ y.............
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

Real Nonresidential Investment

Real Equipment Investment
Percent change at annual rate

Percent change at annual rate

25 - .................................................

20

1994

1995

-

......................................................................................................................

1994

1996

1995

1996

Housing Starts

Real Residential Investment
Percent change at annual rate

Millions, annual rate

20

1.6 -

-

.......................................................................

1994




1995

................................................

1996

15

National EconomicTrends

Govt. Consumption and Investment

Government Receipts and Outlays

Billions of 1992 dollars
1400 -

Percent of GDP

1200

30
1000

25

800

600
20

400

Federal Receipts, 1994

Federal Outlays, 1994
Defense
22.61%

Personal Income
39.54%

Net Interest
12.85%

Social

Other
7.94%
Corp. Profit
11.95%

Medicare
10.46%
Medicaid
5.31%

Other
28.59%

State and Local Outlays, 1994




Social Insurance
40.57%

State and Local Receipts, 1994

Personal Income

NationalEconomicïïends

Gross Federai Debt
Percent of GDP

Percent of GDP
70 -

r
. .
2 1. ".....1
0. .r ' 1 ....r..n ..i....i....i....r~ i....i. .i
72

74

76

78

80

82

84

86

88

90

92

94

Change In Gross Federal Debt

96

J
Billions of dollars, fiscal years

Percent of GDP

Government Budgets
Billions of dollars

National Income Accounts

Unified Budget

Calendar Years

Fiscal Years

Federal Federal

State and Local
Receipts
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996

Expenditures

Surplus or
Deìicit(-)

Receipts

Expenditures

Surplus or
DefidtH

Receipts

Outlays

Surplus or
Deficit(-)

361.4

307.0

54.4

561.5

622.5

-6 1 .0

517.1

590.9

390.8

335.4

55.4

649.3

707.1

-5 7 .8

5 99.3

678.2

- 7 9 .0

409.0

357.7

51.3

646.4

781.0

-1 3 4 .6

617.8

745.8

-1 2 8 .0

443.6

378.8

64.8

671.9

846.3

-1 7 4 .4

600.6

808.4

-2 0 7 .8

492.0

405.1

86.9

746.9

902.9

-1 5 6 .0

666.5

851.8

-1 8 5 .4

-7 3 .8

528.7

437.8

90.9

81 1.3

974.2

-1 6 2 .9

734.1

946.4

-2 1 2 .3

570.6

475.7

94.9

850.1

1027.6

-1 7 7 .5

769.1

990.3

-2 2 1 .2

594.9

51 1.1

83.8

937.4

1066.3

-1 2 8 .9

854.1

1003.9

-1 4 9 .8

631.4

545.5

85.9

997.2

1 1 18.5

-1 2 1 .3

9 09.0

1064.1

-1 5 5 .2

681.0

585.9

95.1

1079.3

1 192.7

-1 13.4

9 90.7

1 143.2

-1 5 2 .5

728.9

648.8

80.1

1 129.8

1284.5

-1 5 4 .7

1031.3

1252.5

-2 2 1 .2

784.2

708.4

75.8

1 149.0

1345.0

-1 9 6 .0

1054.3

1323.6

- 2 6 9 .4

844.3

758.0

86.3

1 198.5

1479.4

-2 8 0 .9

1090.5

1380.9

-2 9 0 .4

897.1

802.2

94.9

1275.3

1530.9

-2 5 5 .6

1 153.5

1408.7

-2 5 5 .1

946.4

846.6

99.8

1377.0

1567.3

-1 9 0 .3

1257.7

1460.8

-2 0 3 .1

996.1

901.1

95.0

1478.4

1640.1

-1 6 1 .7

1351.5

1514.4

-1 6 2 .9

NA

NA

NA

1452.8

1560.1

-1 0 7 .3

NA




NA

NA

17

Nat iona IEconomic Trends

Trade and Investment Income Balances
Billions of dollars
10

-1 0

-2 0

-3 0

Exchange Rates

100 x (Deutsche martyUS$)
YenAJSS
450

Index, March 1973-100

375

300

225

150

75

Goods Export Shares, 1995

Goods Import Shares, 1995
All Other
35.76%

All Other
32.99%
Mexico
8.04%
Mexico

Canada
22.09%

Canada

Other O E C D
9.33%

Other O E C D
14.33%

Japan
11.17%




Germ any
3.89%

France
U K 2.47%
5.01%

3.59%

NationalEconomicTrends

Trade Balance

Goods Trade

Billions of dollars

Percent change from year ago
25 - ............................................

v m w iiv r iv i
Goods and Services j
-5

-1 0

m
—

■20 1 ..

- 5

1994

1995

- i ...................................................t ....................................................| ................................................... i

1994

1996

'

1995

Current Account Balance

Services Trade

Billions of dollars
0

1996

Percent change from year ago
25 - .........................................
20-

1994

1995

1996

Real GDP Growth of Major Trading Partners
Percent change at annual rate

Germany

United Kingdom
8-

20-

1994




1995

1996

19

National Economicïïends

Output per Hour and Manufacturing Capacity Utilization
Percent change from year ago

Percent
- 90

Nonfarm Compensation per Hour
F
’ercent change from year ago

10

Nominal

-5

Output per Hour and Total Factor Productivity, Manufacturing
Percent change, annual data
7.5 - ...............m ............... m


20


Output/Hr

NationalEconomicTrends

Nonfarm Output per Hour
Percent change at annual rate
4 - ...............................................

2—

-4
1994

1995

1996

Selected Component Shares of National Income
Percent

Percent
— 75

Corporate Profits after Tax (with IVA and CCAdj)
Percent change from year ago

40

20

0
-2 0




21

National EconomicTrends
Nominal GDP

Real GDP

Percent chance
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Billions
of $

Billions
of 1992 $

Pinal Sales

Percent Change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanoe
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Change in
Business Inventories
Billions of 1992 $
Last qtr
Year ago

1991
1992
1993
1994

5916.7

3.0

6078.933

- 1 .0

6082.628

-0 .7

10.396

6 244.4

5.5

6244.442

2.7

6237.457

2.5

- 2 .9 8 2

6553.0

4.9

6386.363

2.3

6365.527

2.1

7.269

6935.7

5.8

6608.711

3.5

6550.717

2.9

19.075

1995

7253 .8

4.6

6742.920

2.0

6708.836

2.4

58.898

1994

1995

1996

1
2

6442.6

3.8

5.2

6326.432

-0 .1

2.4

6307.113

- 0 .9

2.1

18.500

-0 .1 4 2

6506.2

4.0

4.9

6356.530

1.9

2.3

6334.496

1.7

2.1

20.846

1 1.294

3
4

1993

6574.4

4.3

4.8

6393.434

2.3

2.1

6371.296

2.3

1.9

19.540

12.142

6688.6

7.1

4.8

6469.055

4.8

2.2

6449.202

5.0

2.0

17.414

5 .782

1
2
3
4

6776.0

5.3

5.2

6508.519

2.5

2.9

6467.727

1.2

2.5

40.530

18.500

4.9

3.6

6514.945

3.0

2.8

74.481

20.846

6890.5

6.9

5.9

6587.574

6993.1

6.1

6.4

6644.898

3.5

3.9

6582.060

4.2

3.3

64.488

19.540

7083.2

5.3

5.9

6693.854

3.0

3.5

6638.134

3.5

2.9

56.093

17.414

1
2
3
4

7149 .8

3.8

5.5

6701.036

0.4

3.0

6647.366

0.6

2.8

54.510

40.530

7204.9

3.1

4.6

6713.524

0.7

1.9

6682.420

2.1

2.6

30.450

74.481

7309 .8

6.0

4.5

6776.406

3.8

2.0

6741.364

3.6

2.4

32.976

64.488

7 350.6

2.3

3.8

6780.715

0.3

1.3

6764.193

1.4

1.9

14.584

56.093

1
2
3

7 426.8

4.2

3.9

6814.310

2.0

1.7

6 815.153

3.0

2.5

-2 .9 9 9

54.510

7545.1

6.5

4.7

6892.553

4.7

2.7

6 884.700

4.1

3.0

7.064

30.450

7616.3

3.8

4.2

6928.396

2.1

2.2

6892.747

0.5

2.2

34.450

32.976

Consumption
Billions
of 1992 $
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1993

1994

1995

1996

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago

Nonresidential Investment

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago

Billions
of 1992 $

Percent chanae
Annua
Year
rate
ago
-6 .4

4 105.788

-0 .6

461.959

-6 .4

741.271

- 8 .0

547.704

4219.796

2.8

488.529

5.8

783.429

5.7

557.870

1.9

4339.501

2.8

524.077

7.3

836.353

6.8

593.645

6.4

4473.142

3.1

561.969

7.2

921.087

10.1

652.053

9.8

4577.846

2.3

579.827

3.2

975.921

6.0

714.306

9.5

1
2
3
4

4289.676

0.7

2.8

506.010

0.8

6.3

8 15.422

4.9

7.5

577.495

6.0

4318.835

2.7

2.9

519.581

11.2

8.0

8 21.102

2.8

5.0

586.371

6.3

5.2

4359.471

3.8

3.1

528.863

7.3

7.5

835.407

7.2

6.1

593.137

4.7

5.8

4390.023

2.8

2.5

541.853

10.2

7.3

8 73.482

19.5

8.4

617.578

17.5

8.5

1
2
3
4

4420.53 2

2.8

3.1

549.591

5.8

8.6

892.417

9.0

9.4

628.545

7.3

8.8

4458.721

3.5

3.2

555.429

4.3

6.9

91 1.431

8.8

1 1.0

639.480

7.1

9.1

4489.357

2.8

3.0

563.089

5.6

6.5

930.813

8.8

1 1.4

660.472

13.8

1 1.4

4523.959

3.1

3.1

579.768

12.4

7.0

949.686

8.4

8.7

679.713

12.2

10.1

1
2
3
4

4534.76 2

1.0

2.6

566.490

-8 .9

3.1

9 69.499

8.6

8.6

704.449

15.4

12.1

4 569.870

3.1

2.5

576.187

7.0

3.7

9 65.676

-1 .6

6.0

7 10.480

3.5

1 1.1

4597.341

2.4

2.4

589.089

9.3

4.6

979.973

6.1

5.3

7 18.954

4.9

4 609.410

1.1

1.9

587.540

- 1 .0

1.3

9 88.536

3.5

4.1

723.339

2.5

8.9
6.4

1
2
3

6.1

4 649.076

3.5

2.5

599.202

8.2

5.8

1013.292

10.4

4.5

7 43.478

1 1.6

5.5

4 687.603

3.4

2.6

615.621

11.4

6.8

1031.100

7.2

6.8

750.512

3.8

5.6

4693.468

0.5

2.1

611.605

- 2 .6

3.8

1057.485

10.6

7.9

7 81.374

17.5

8.7




22

Private Fixed Investment

Durables Consumption

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago

HationaìEconomicTrends
GDP Chain Price Index
Index
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

Employment Cost Index

ECI: Wages

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

ECI: Benefits

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

97.321

3.9

110.2

4.4

108.8

3.8

114.1

6.2

100.000

2.8

114.3

3.7

111.9

2.9

120.5

5.6

102.617

2.6

118.4

3.6

115.2

2.9

127.0

5.4

104.958

2.3

122.2

3.2

118.5

2.9

132.1

4.0

107.565

2.5

125.7

2.8

121.9

2.9

135.0

2.2

1994

1
2

101.832

3.8

2.7

116.9

4.2

3.5

1 13.9

3.2

2.6

124.8

6.7

5.5

102.386

2.2

2.6

117.9

3.5

3.7

1 14.6

2.5

2.7

126.5

5.6

5.9

3
4

1993

102.833

1.8

2.7

118.9

3.4

3.7

1 15.6

3.5

3.1

127.7

3.8

5.3

103.415

2.3

2.5

119.9

3.4

3.6

1 16.5

3.2

3.1

128.9

3.8

5.0

1
2

104.149

2.9

2.3

120.8

3.0

3.3

1 17.2

2.4

2.9

130.3

4.4

4.4
4.0

1995

1996

104.632

1.9

2.2

121.8

3.4

3.3

118.1

3.1

3.1

131.5

3.7

3
4

105.248

2.4

2.3

122.8

3.3

3.3

119.0

3.1

2.9

132.9

4.3

4.1

105.802

2.1

2.3

123.5

2.3

3.0

119.7

2.4

2.7

133.6

2.1

3.6

1
2
3
4

106.676

3.3

2.4

124.4

2.9

3.0

120.6

3.0

2.9

133.8

0.6

2.7
2.4

1
2
3

107.309

2.4

2.6

125.3

2.9

2.9

121.5

3.0

2.9

134.6

2.4

107.855

2.1

2.5

126.1

2.6

2.7

122.4

3.0

2.9

135.4

2.4

1.9

108.419

2.1

2.5

126.9

2.6

2.8

123.2

2.6

2.9

136.1

2.1

1.9

109.027

2.3

2.2

127.8

2.9

2.7

124.5

4.3

3.2

136.0

-0 .3

1.6

109.619

2.2

2.2

128.8

3.2

2.8

125.6

3.6

3.4

136.9

2.7

1.7

1 10.166

2.0

2.1

129.6

2.5

2.8

126.4

2.6

3.3

137.8

2.7

1.8

Billions
of 1992 $
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1993

1994

1995

1996

1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3
4
1
2
3

Nonfarm Output per Hour

Imports

Exports
Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Billions
Of 1992 $

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Nonfarm Compensation/Hr

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

Index

Percent change
Annual
Year
rate
ago

6.3
6.6

622.191

- 0 .7

97.0

0.8

95.2

5.0

639.416

668.959

7.5

100.0

3.1

100.0

5.1

658.217

2.9

730.246

9.2

100.2

0.2

102.3

2.2

71 1.972

8.2

817.637

12.0

100.8

0.6

104.5

2.2

883.001

8.0

101.0

0.2

107.7

3.1

599.926

775.399

8.9

647.083

-1 .3

2.2

703.069

8.3

8.5

100.1

-3 .9

0.8

101.5

1.2

2.9

660.044

8.3

3.8

724.429

12.7

8.4

99.7

-1 .6

0.2

102.0

2.0

2.4

645.484

-8 .5

0.9

731.707

4.1

9.1

100.1

1.6

0.4

102.5

2.0

1.8

680.255

23.4

4.8

761.777

17.5

10.5

100.8

2.8

0.3

103.0

2.0

1.8

677.647

-1 .5

4.7

776.962

8.2

10.5

100.3

-2 .0

0.2

103.8

3.1

2.3

703.108

15.9

6.5

810.404

18.4

11.9

100.6

1.2

0.9

104.1

1.2

2.1

719.560

9.7

1 1.5

831.262

10.7

13.6

101.0

1.6

0.9

104.5

1.5

2.0

747.573

16.5

9.9

851.919

10.3

11.8

101.1

0.4

0.3

105.4

3.5

2.3

752.330

2.6

1 1.0

874.851

1 1.2

12.6

100.5

-2 .4

0.2

106.2

3.1

2.3

763.226

5.9

8.6

884.605

4.5

9.2

100.9

1.6

0.3

107.2

3.8

3.0

782.952

10.7

8.8

884.524

-0 .0

6.4

101.3

1.6

0.3

108.2

3.8

3.5

803.087

10.7

7.4

888.023

1.6

4.2

101.1

-0 .8

0.0

109.3

4.1

3.7

806.713

1.8

7.2

910.707

10.6

4.1

101.5

1.6

1.0

1 10.2

3.3

3.8

817.864

5.6

7.2

932.556

9.9

5.4

101.7

0.8

0.8

1 1 1.3

4.1

3.8

816.106

- 0 .9

4.2

953.541

9.3

7.8

101.6

-0 .4

0.3

1 12.2

3.3

3.7




23

NalionalEconomicTrends
Household Survey Employment
Thousands Change
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

117713
118488
120259
123065
124901

-1 0 8 3
775
1771
2806
1836

1994

1
2
3
4

122006
122638
123250
124366

854
632
612
1116

1995

1
2
3
4

124886
124712
124909
125096

1996

1
2
3

Nonfarm Aggregate Hours

Nonfarm Payroll Employment

Percent chanae
Year
Annual
rate
ago

Percent chanae
Annual Year
rate
ago
Thousands Change

Index

Percent chanae
Monthly Annual
Year
rate
rate
ago

-1.1
0.3
2.0
3.1
2.7

120.3
121.2
124.6
129.9
133.4

2.2
0.7
2.8
4.2
2.7

-0 .9
0.7
1.5
2.3
1.5

108261
108592
110726
114153
117202

-1 155
331
2134
3427
3050

2.9
2.1
2.0
3.7

2.3
2.2
2.2
2.7

112625
113686
114690
115611

792
1062
1003
921

2.9
3.8
3.6
3.3

2.7
3.0
3.3
3.4

127.6
129.4
130.5
132.1

1.1
1.4
0.8
1.3

4.3
5.9
3.2
5.1

4.0
4.2
4.1
4.6

520
-1 7 4
197
187

1.7
-0 .6
0.6
0.6

2.4
1.7
1.3
0.6

116484
116956
117441
117928

874
472
485
487

3.1
1.6
1.7
1.7

3.4
2.9
2.4
2.0

132.9
132.9
133.6
134.3

0.6
0.0
0.5
0.5

2.4
0.1
2.1
2.0

4.2
2.7
2.4
1.7

125680
126389
127102

584
709
713

1.9
2.3
2.3

0.6
1.3
1.8

118466
119264
119958

538
797
694

1.8
2.7
2.3

1.7
2.0
2.1

134.2
136.1
137.0

-0 .0
1.4
0.7

-0 .2
5.6
2.8

1.0
2.4
2.5

1994 Nov
Dec

124417
124595

331
178

3.2
1.7

2.7
2.6

115665
115913

41 1
248

4.4
2.6

3.4
3.4

131.8
132.5

-0 .2
0.5

-1 .8
6.6

4.4
4.6

1995 Jan
Feb
Mar

124671
124881
125106

76
210
225

0.7
2.0
2.2

2.3
2.3
2.5

116250
116502
116701

337
252
199

3.5
2.6
2.1

3.5
3.5
3.3

133.2
132.7
132.8

0.5
-0 .4
0.1

6.5
-4 .4
0.9

4.4
4.7
3.3

Apr
May
Jun

124973
124598
124566

-1 3 3
-3 7 5
-3 2

-1 .3
-3 .5
-0 .3

2.2
1.4
1.5

116861
116907
117100

160
46
193

1.7
0.5
2.0

3.1
2.8
2.7

133.7

0.7

8.4

131.9
133.2

-1 .3
1.0

-1 5 .0
12.5

3.8
1.7
2.6

Jul
Aug
Sep

124832
124859
125036

266
27
177

2.6
0.3
1.7

1.7
1.2
1.1

117201
117499
117623

101
298
124

1.0
3.1
1.3

2.5
2.4
2.3

133.5
133.4
134.0

0.2
-0.1
0.4

2.7
-0 .9
5.5

2.6
2.4
2.3

Oct
Nov
Dec

125244
125062
124981

208
-1 8 2
-81

2.0
-1 .7
-0 .8

0.9
0.5
0.3

117749
117899
118136

126
150
237

1.3
1.5
2.4

2.2
1.9
1.9

134.3
134.3
134.3

0.2
0.0
0.0

2.7
0.0
0.0

1.7
1.9
1.4

1996 Jan
Feb
Mar

125226
125663
126151

245
437
488

2.4
4.3
4.8

0.4
0.6
0.8

118070
118579
118750

-6 6
509
171

-0 .7
5.3
1.7

1.6
1.8
1.8

131.7
135.5
135.5

-1 .9
2.9
0.0

-2 0 .9
40.7
0.0

-1.1
2.1
2.0

Apr
May
Jun

126095
126462
126610

-5 6
367
148

-0 .5
3.5
1.4

0.9
1.5
1.6

118922
119332
119537

172
410
205

1.8
4.2
2.1

1.8
2.1
2.1

135.2
135.3
137.7

-0 .2
0.1
1.8

-2 .6
0.9
23.5

1.1
2.6
3.4

Jul
Aug
Sep

126884
127055
127368

274
171
313

2.6
1.6
3.0

1.6
1.8
1.9

119772
120052
120050

235
280
-2

2.4
2.8
-0 .0

2.2
2.2
2.1

136.1
136.9
138.0

-1 .2
0.6
0.8

-13.1
7.3
10.1

1.9
2.6
3.0

Oct
Nov

127627
127597

259
-3 0

2.5
-0 .3

1.9
2.0

120274
120392

224
118

2.3
1.2

2.1
2.1

137.0
137.6

-0 .7
0.4

-8 .4
5.4

2.0
2.5


http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/
24
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

National EconomicTrends
Retail Sales

Industrial Production

Unempl.
Rate

Billions
of dollars

Percent chanae
Monthly Annual
Year
rate
rate
ago

6.9

0.6
4.8
6.6
7.5
5.2

104.186
107.809
111.584
1 18.095
122.013

Index

Percent chanae
Monthly Annual
Year
rate
rate
ago

Treasury
Yields
3 -m o

10-yr

-1.8
3.5
3.5
5.8
3.3

5.38
3.43
3.00
4.25
5.49

7.86
7.01
5.86
7.08
6.58

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

7.5
6.9
6.1
5.6

1856.090
1944.605
2072.550
2227.763
2342.51 1

1
2
3
4

6.6
6.2
6.0
5.6

543.502
550.915
560.508
572.838

1.8
1.4
1.7
2.2

7.4
5.6
7.1
9.1

7.8
7.3
7.6
7.3

117.462
1 18.785
120.637

2.0
1.7
1.1
1.6

8.4
7.0
4.6
6.4

4.4
6.0
6.4
6.6

3.24
3.99
4.48
5.28

6.07
7.08
7.33
7.84

1995

1
2
3
4

5.5
5.6
5.6
5.6

576.706
582.972
589.293
593.540

0.7
1.1
1.1
0.7

2.7
4.4
4.4
2.9

6.1
5.8
5.1
3.6

121.808
121.387
122.339
122.518

1.0
-0 .3
0.8
0.1

3.9
-1 .4
3.2
0.6

5.5
3.3
3.0
1.6

5.74
5.60
5.37
5.26

7.48
6.62
6.32
5.89

1996

1
2
3

5.6
5.4
5.2

606.749
614.066
615.445

2.2
1.2
0.2

9.2
4.9
0.9

5.2
5.3
4.4

123.416
125.425
126.781

0.7
1.6
1.1

3.0
6.7
4.4

1.3
3.3
3.6

4.93
5.02
5.10

5.91
6.72
6.78

1994 Nov
Dec

5.6
5.4

190.992
191.020

0.1
0.0

1.0
0.2

7.4
6.4

120.534
121.484

0.5
0.8

6.6
9.9

6.6
6.4

5.29
5.60

7.96
7.81

1995 Jan
Feb
Mar

5.7
5.4
5.5

193.097
191.035
192.574

1.1
-1.1
0.8

13.9
-12.1
10.1

8.5
5.3
4.6

121.816
121.720
121.888

0.3
-0.1
0.1

3.3
-0 .9
1.7

6.3
5.4
4.7

5.71
5.77
5.73

7.78
7.47
7.20

Apr
May
Jun

5.7
5.6
5.6

192.372
194.493
196.107

-0.1
1.1
0.8

-1 .3
14.1
10.4

4.9
6.3
6.2

121.388
121.339
121.434

-0 .4
-0 .0
0.1

-4 .8
-0 .5
0.9

3.9
3.3
2.8

5.65
5.67
5.47

7.06
6.63
6.17

Jul
Aug
Sep

5.7
5.6
5.6

195.615
197.081
196.597

-0 .3
0.7
-0 .2

-3 .0
9.4
-2 .9

5.9
5.2
4.4

121.507
122.690
122.821

0.1
1.0
0.1

0.7
12.3
1.3

2.7

5.42
5.40
5.28

6.28

3.2
3.2

Oct
Nov
Dec

5.5
5.6
5.6

196.225
198.21 1
199.104

-0 .2
1.0
0.5

-2 .2
12.8
5.5

2.8
3.8
4.2

122.159
122.587
122.809

-0 .5
0.4
0.2

-6 .3
4.3
2.2

1.9
1.7
1.1

5.28
5.36
5.14

6.04
5.93
5.71

1996 Jan
Feb
Mar

5.8
5.5
5.6

199.129
203.392
204.228

0.0
2.1
0.4

0.2
28.9
5.0

3.1
6.5
6.1

122.515
124.157
123.576

-0 .2
1.3
-0 .5

-2 .8
17.3
-5 .5

0.6
2.0
1.4

5.00
4.83
4.96

5.65
5.81
6.27

Apr
May
Jun

5.4
5.6
5.3

204.031
205.669
204.366

-0.1
0.8
-0 .6

-1 .2
10.1
-7 .3

6.1
5.7

124.519
125.380
126.377

0.8
0.7
0.8

9.6
8.6
10.0

2.6
3.3
4.1

4.95
5.02
5.09

6.51
6.74
6.91

Jul
Aug
Sep

5.4
5.1
5.2

204.719
204.599
206.127

0.2
-0.1
0.7

2.1
-0 .7
9.3

4.7

126.320
126.917
127.106

-0 .0

-0 .5

3.8
4.8

0.5
0.1

5.8
1.8

4.0
3.4
3.5

5.15
5.05
5.09

6.87
6.64
6.83

Oct
Nov

5.2
5.4

206.842
206.063

0.3
-0 .4

4.2
-4 .4

5.4
4.0

126.890
128.002

-0 .2
0.9

-2 .0
1 1.0

3.9
4.4

4.99
5.03

6.53
6.20

1994




4.2

1 15.494

6.49
6.20

25

National Economicïïends

Index

rroaucer rrice iim

V/Uii&um rnce maw
er

Consumer Price Index

less Food and Energy

Percent chanae
Monthly Annual
Year
rate
rate
ago

Year
to date

Index

Percent chanae
Monthly Annual Year
rate
rate
ago

Finished Goods
Index

Percent chanae
Monthly Annual Year
rate
rate
ago

121.7
123.2
124.7
125.5
127.9

Year
to date

2.2
1.2
1.2
0.6
1.9

1991
1992
1993
1994
1995

136.3
140.4
144.6
148.3
152.5

1994

1
2
3
4

146.7
147.7
149.0
149.9

0.5
0.6
0.9
0.6

2.0
2.6
3.8
2.3

2.5
2.4
2.9
2.6

2.0
2.3
2.8
2.6

155.1
156.2
157.4
158.3

0.7
0.8
0.7
0.6

2.8
3.0
2.9
2.4

2.9
2.8
2.9
2.8

2.8
2.9
2.9
2.8

125.0
125.1
125.9
126.1

0.5
0.1
0.6
0.2

1.8
0.5
2.4
0.9

0.2
--0.2
1.3
1.4

1995

1
2
3
4

150.9
152.2
153.0
153.9

0.7
0.8
0.5
0.6

2.9
3.4
2.0
2.4

2.9
3.1
2.6
2.7

2.9
3.1
2.8
2.7

159.6
160.9
162.0
163.1

0.8
0.9
0.7
0.7

3.2
3.5
2.8
2.7

2.9
3.0
3.0
3.0

3.2
3.4
3.2
3.0

127.2
127.7
127.9
128.9

0.8
0.4
0.1
0.8

3.3
1.8
0.5
3.3

1.8
2.1
1.6
2.2

1
2
3

155.1
156.6
157.5

0.8
0.9
0.6

3.2
3.8
2.3

2.8
2.9
2.9

3.2
3.5
3.1

164.2
165.3
166.3

0.7
0.6
0.6

2.8
2.5
2.6

2.9
2.7
2.7

2.8
2.7
2.7

130.0
130.9
131.4

0.8
0.7
0.4

3.2
2.9
1.4

2.2
2.5
2.7

1994 Nov
Dec

149.9
150.2

0.3
0.2

3.3
2.4

2.7
2.7

2.7
2.7

158.3
158.6

0.2
0.2

2.3
2.3

2.8
2.7

2.7
2.7

126.2
126.8

0.6
0.5

7.9
5.9

1.4
1.8

1995 Jan
Feb
Mar

150.6
150.9
151.3

0.3
0.2
0.3

3.2
2.4
3.2

2.9
2.9
2.9

3.2
2.8
3.0

159.1
159.5
160.1

0.3
0.3
0.4

3.8
3.1
4.6

2.8
2.9
3.0

3.8
3.5
3.8

127.0
127.2
127.3

0.2
0.2
0.1

1.9
1.9
0.9

1.8
1.8
1.8

Apr
May
Jun

151.8
152.2
152.6

0.3
0.3
0.3

4.0
3.2
3.2

3.1
3.1
3.0

3.2
3.2
3.2

160.6
160.9
161.3

0.3
0.2
0.2

3.8
2.3
3.0

3.1
3.0
2.9

3.8
3.5
3.4

127.6
127.9
127.7

0.2
0.2
-0 .2

2.9
2.9
-1 .9

2.0
2.2
2.0

Jul
Aug
Sep

152.7
153.0
153.2

0.1
0.2
0.1

0.8
2.4
1.6

2.8
2.6
2.5

2.9
2.8
2.7

161.7
162.0
162.4

0.2
0.2
0.2

3.0
2.2
3.0

3.0
2.9
3.0

3.4
3.2
3.2

127.7
127.8
128.2

0.0
0.1
0.3

0.0
0.9
3.8

1.8
1.3
1.8

Oct
Nov
Dec

153.7
153.8
154.1

0.3
0.1
0.2

4.0
0.8
2.4

2.8
2.6
2.6

2.8
2.6
2.6

162.9
163.1
163.3

0.3
0.1
0.1

3.8
1.5
1.5

3.1
3.0
3.0

3.3
3.1
3.0

128.4
128.8
129.6

0.2
0.3
0.6

1.9
3.8
7.7

2.4
2.1
2.2

1996 Jan
Feb
Mar

154.7
155.0
155.6

0.4
0.2
0.4

4.8
2.4
4.7

2.7
2.7
2.8

4.8
3.6
4.0

163.8
164.2
164.7

0.3
0.2
0.3

3.7
3.0
3.7

3.0
2.9
2.9

3.7
3.4
3.5

129.8
129.7
130.4

0.2
-0.1
0.5

1.9
-0 .9
6.7

2.2
2.0
2.4

Apr
May
Jun

156.2
156.7
156.8

0.4
0.3
0.1

4.7
3.9
0.8

2.9
3.0
2.8

4.1
4.1
3.5

164.9
165.3
165.6

0.1
0.2
0.2

1.5
3.0
2.2

2.7
2.7
2.7

3.0
3.0
2.8

130.7
130.9
131.1

0.2
0.2
0.2

2.8
1.9
1.8

2.4
2.3
2.7

Jul
Aug
Sep

157.2
157.4
157.8

0.3
0.1
0.3

3.1
1.5
3.1

2.9
2.9
3.0

3.5
3.2
3.2

166.1
166.2
166.7

0.3
0.1
0.3

3.7
0.7
3.7

2.7
2.6
2.6

3.0
2.7
2.8

131.0
131.4
131.7

-0.1
0.3
0.2

-0 .9
3.7
2.8

2.6
2.8
2.7

Oct
Nov

158.3
158.7

0.3
0.3

3.9
3.1

3.0
3.2

3.3
3.3

167.1
167.4

0.2
0.2

2.9
2.2

2.6
2.6

2.8
2.7

132.2
132.7

0.4
0.4

4.7
4.6

3.0
3.0

1996


26


4.2
3.0
3.0
2.6
2.8

142.3
147.5
152.4
156.7
161.4

4.9
3.7
3.3
2.8
3.0

National EconomicTrends
Notes
Pages 4, 5: Final sales is gross domestic product (GDP) minus
change in business inventories. Advance, preliminary, and final
GDP growth rates are released during the first, second, and third
months of the following quarter. Changes result from incorporation
of more complete information. The Purchasing Managers’ Index is
a weighted average of diffusion indexes for new orders, production,
supplier deliveries, inventories, and employment. The National As­
sociation o f Purchasing Management (NAPM) surveys over 300
firms in 20 manufacturing industries, weighting responses by indus­
try share of GDP. Aggregate and average weekly hours are paid
hours of production and nonsupervisory employees.
Page 6: The contribution of a component X, to the overall GDP
growth rate in quarter t is 100 x [(1 + (X , - Xt.i)IGDPt-i)*- 1]. The
sign is changed for imports. This calculation forces components to
add up to the GDP growth rate before compounding and does not
exactly match Survey o f Current Business, Table 8.2. The residual
line is calculated using the finest level of detail in the table.
Page 7: Ten-year Treasury yields are adjusted to constant maturity.
Three-month yields are secondary market averages, but all rates used
in the yield curves are adjusted to constant maturity. The total re­
turn on the Standard and Poor’s 500 is dividends as a percent of
the value of the index plus the percent change in the index.
Pages 8,9: Oil prices are monthly averages of daily spot prices for
West Texas intermediate crude (Wall Street Journal). Consumer
price index is for all urban consumers. The Employment Cost
Index (ECI) covers nonfarm, nonfederal employers. ECI compen­
sation refers to a fixed sample of jobs, while compensation per
hour covers all workers in the nonfarm business sector in a given
quarter. In both cases, compensation is wages and salaries plus
benefits.
Pages 10,11: Nonfarm payroll employment is counted in a survey
of about 390,000 establishments (Current Employment Survey). It
excludes self-employed individuals and workers in private house­
holds, but double-counts individuals with more than one job. The
household survey (Current Population Survey) of about 50,000
households provides estimates of civilian employment, unemploy­
ment rate, labor force participation rate, and employment-population
ratio. Population is civilian, noninstitutional, 16 years and over. 90
percent confidence intervals for the unemployment rate (± 0.2 per­
centage points) and change in household survey employment (±
376,000) measure uncertainty due to sample size. The household
survey was changed in January 1994, so care should be exercised in
making short-term comparisons around this date, particularly with
the duration data shown on page 10. Other changes in the survey are
detailed in Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment and Earnings,
Appendix A.
Pages 12, 13: Debt service is an estimate of scheduled interest and
principal payments on outstanding debt. The Michigan consumer
sentiment index shows changes in a summary measure of consum­
ers’ answers to five questions about their current and expected fi­
nancial situation, expectations about future economic conditions, and
attitudes about making large purchases. The survey is based on a
representative sample of U.S. households.
Pages 14, 15: Overall gross saving includes government saving,
which is the sum of the government surplus and capital consumption
(see notes for pages 16 and 17). Net foreign investment (N il) is
U.S. investment abroad minus foreign investment in the U.S. Aside
from a statistical discrepancy, NFI also equals the difference between
gross domestic investment and saving.
Pages 16, 17: Government consumption and investment is current
expenditures on goods and services, including capital consumption
(depreciation) and gross investment, as reported in the National In­
come and Product Accounts (NIPA). The unified federal budget
deficit differs from NIPA basis in four main ways: (1) NIPA ex­




cludes transactions involving existing assets; (2) NIPA outlays ex­
clude government investment and include consumption of govern­
ment capital, while unified budget outlays do the reverse; (3) NIPA
accounts exclude Puerto Rico and U.S. territories; and (4) various
timing issues are handled differently. Outlays and receipts data on
these pages are from the NIPAs, except as noted. Since 1977, the
federal fiscal year starts on October 1. Federal debt held by the
public includes holdings of the Federal Reserve System and excludes
holdings of the social security and other federal trust funds. Federal
grants in aid to state and local governments appear in both state and
local receipts and federal outlays.
Pages 18, 19: The trade balance (shown on a balance of payments
basis) is the difference between exports and imports o f goods
(merchandise) and services. It is nearly identical in concept to the net
exports component of GDP, but differs slightly in accounting details.
The investment income balance equals income received from U.S.owned assets in other countries minus income paid on foreign-owned
assets in the U.S. The investment income balance is nearly identical
in concept to the difference between gross national product and gross
domestic product, but differs in accounting details. The current
account balance is the trade balance plus the balance on investment
income plus net unilateral transfers to the U.S. from other countries.
Pages 20, 21: Output per hour (Y/H), unit labor cost (C/Y), and
compensation per hour (C/H) are indexes which approximately
obey the following relationship: %(Y/H) + %(C/Y) = %(C/H) with
%() meaning percent changes. Unit labor cost is shown on page 9.
Real compensation per hour uses the CPI to adjust for the effects of
inflation. Total factor productivity estimates changes in output that
do not correspond to changes in quantities of labor, capital, or inter­
mediate inputs. Inventory valuation adjustments (IVA) remove
the effect of changes in the value of existing inventories from corpo­
rate profits and proprietors’ income. (This change in value does not
correspond to current production and therefore is not part o f GDP).
Capital consumption adjustments (CCAdj) increase profits and
proprietors’ income by the difference between estimates of economic
depreciation and depreciation allowed by the tax code. Components
of national income not shown are rental income of persons and net
interest.

Sources
Bureau o f Economic Analysis (BEA), U.S. Dept, o f Commerce
National income and product accounts, international trade and in­
vestment data (except by country), auto and light truck sales
Census Bureau, U.S. Dept, o f Commerce
Inventory-sales ratios, retail sales, capital goods orders, housing
starts, exports and imports by country
Bureau o f Labor Statistics (BLS), U.S. Dept, o f Labor
All employment-related data, employment cost index, consumer
and producer price indexes, unit labor cost, output per hour, com­
pensation per hour, total factor productivity
United States Department o f Treasury
Unified budget receipts, outlays, deficit
Federal Reserve Board
Index of industrial production, treasury yields, exchange rates, ca­
pacity utilization, consumer debt service
The Survey Research Center, The University o f Michigan
Consumer sentiment index
The Conference Board
Help-wanted advertising index.
Organization fo r Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD)
GDP for major trading partners (not available on FRED)

27

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
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