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n f m o n m Economicr e i i d s
t
PREPARED

BY

FEDERAL

M O N T H ENDING: December 31, 1977

RESERVE

BANK OF ST. LOUIS

RELEASED: January 30, 1978

Economic activity In 1977 maintained the brisk momentum established in the
initial stages of the current expansion. Total spending, or GNP, in 1977 (the change
from IV/1976 to IV/1977) grew by 11.9 percent, compared to an 11.4 percent rate of
increase posted in the first seven quarters of the current expansion (1/1975 to
IV/1976). Output of goods and services increased by 5.7 percent in 1977, essentially
the same as the 5.6 percent rate of growth recorded in the earlier part of the recovery.
No progress was made during 1977, however, in slowing inflation. The
general price level, as measured by the GNP implicit price deflator, rose 5.9 percent
in 1977, compared to a 5.5 percent rate in the first seven quarters of the recovery.
Other measures of inflation, such as the consumer and wholesale price indexes, showed
similar patterns. Consumer prices increased 6.7 percent in 1977, up from the 5.7
percent rate of advance registered from March 1975 to December 1976. Wholesale
prices rose 5.9 percent in 1977, compared to a 5.5 percent rate of increase in the
previous 21 months.
Industrial production, a measure of the output of the nation's factories,
mines, and utilities, increased 5 percent in 1977, less rapid than the 10.5 percent
rate of growth posted from March 1975 to December 1976. Production at yearend 1977,
however, was slowed by a strike in the coal industry.
Personal consumption expenditures constitute about 64 percent of GNP. In
1977 consumption expenditures in real terms Increased 4.4 percent, compared to a 6.1
percent rate of advance in the initial stages of the recovery. Although there was an
overall slowing in 1977, the fourth quarter gave indications of continuing strength
in consumer spending. Retail sales from September to December advanced at a 14.5
percent rate, compared to the 5.5 percent rate from December 1976 to September 1977.
Notably large gains in investment occured in 1977. Total investment
(adjusted for inflation) increased 16.8 percent in 1977, a faster pace than the 14.7
percent rate of the previous seven quarters of the recovery. Business fixed
investment in real terms expanded 9.4 percent in 1977, substantially exceeding the
1.2 percent rate of increase recorded in the initial part of the recovery.
Residential investment on a constant dollar basis continued buoyant in 1977,
increasing by 15 percent, following the 22.8 percent rate of growth in the first
seven quarters of the expansion. Housing starts totaled 1.99 million units in 1977,
with single-family starts achieving a historic peak.
Accompanying the rapid growth of output was a large growth in employment.
From December 1976 to December 1977, employment increased 4.7 percent, compared to a
2.8 percent rate of increase from March 1975 to December 1976. In December 1976, 57
percent of the population aged 16 years and older was employed. By December 1977
this ratio had increased to 58.6 percent. Reflecting these gains in employment, the
unemployment rate dropped from 7.8 percent in December of 1976 to 6.4 percent in
December of 1977.




TOTAL C IV IL IA N EMPLOYMENT
CONPOUNUCO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL
MONTH______________________
6-76 7-76
6-76

IW TTIAL'M O N TH
8-76

9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76

1-77

"2=77 " 3-77

4-77

5-77

^77

7-77

THOUSANDS
OF PERSONS
8-77 "9=77 10-77 1 1-/7"

—
1*5

87*533

7-76

1*0 ‘ 3 .5

•-74

0 .9

“2 .1

0 .7

9-76

0 .5

1 .2

0 .1

10-76

0 *3

"0 .7

- 0 .2

— .7
0

- o .«

87,736

11—
76

1*9

1 .9

1 .5

1 .6

2 .9

b8,77ü

12-76

87*783
8 T,tf34
6 7 ,7 9*

^ Ï5

1*6

2 .1

I.»

2« 1

3*0

1-77

1

2 .0

1 .9 “

2*0

2 .6

2-77

2*0

2 .5

2 .3

2*6

*-77

2 *5

3 .0

2 .9

4—I I

9*0

3 .4

3 .4

5-77

3VZ

3 .6

3 .6

3 .9

6—77

3*2

3 .6

7-77

2 *9

•-77
¥—
77
10-77

^ 2 "

?.T T

88*441

3 .8

2 .3

1 .6

% .2

3 .%

3 .6

“ W Î5 5 8 '
5 .6

88 *967
_ T_r

.

3i9~

4 .8

4 .3

^79

^ .4

4 .4

573

5 i0

5 .5

“ 679

774

7 .6

4 .5

» .3

5 .0

5 .4

~ 674

6 .7

6 .4

3 .6

3 .9 ~ "474

5 .1

4 .F

5 .1

5 .9

5 .9

T .5

3 .2

3 .2

3 .4

3 .8

4 .3

4 .0

4 .1

4 .4

3 .7 ”

2 *0

3 .2

3 .1

3 .3

3 .7

4 .2

3 .9

4 .0

476
... 4 „.3 ..„

2 *9

3 .2

3 .2

3 .4

3 .8

4 .2

3 .9

4 .0

4 .3

2 .9

3 .2

3 .1

373

3 .6

4 .0

3 .T

3 .9

4 .0

11-77

3 *4

3 .7

3 .7

3 .9

4 .3

4 .7

4 .5

4.6

4 .9

4 .9

12-77

3 .5

3 «e

3 .6

4 .0

4 .3

4 .7

4 .6

4 .7

5 .0

5-76

6—
76

7-76

•-76

9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76

1-77

89*475
90*023
'5^3 "

90*408
T .7

2 .4

90*679

TTO

- T Î6

90*561

"471

3 .5

1 .6

0 .6

2 .9 “

^47T

^ .7

Z iV “

2 .3

IT T

3 .6

474

2 .T

2 .2

r.ns

T71T

3 .1

179

♦•fc

4 .1

4 .0

4 .0

5 .5

6 .4

7 .4

13 .2

~ 4 .9

477

473

4 .2

4 .3 “

5.5~

6 .1

6 .7

9 .3

2-77

3-77

4-77

5-77

90T77I
91,095 '
917730
92,160
5 .5

6-77

7-77

8-77

9-77 10-77 11-77

6-77

7-77

8-77

9 2 ,i ¿9

9-77 10-77 11-77

IN IT IA L MONTH

PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
IN IT IA L MONTH

TERMINAL
MONTH
5-76
6—
76

6-76

7-76

•-76

9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76

1-77

2-77

3-77

THOUSANDS
OF PERSONS
4-77

5-77

79 *402

2 .1

79*520

7-76

2*0

1 .«

•—
76

1 .7

1 .6

1 .3

9-76

2 .4

2 .5

2 .9

4 .4

10-76

1 .7

1 .6

1 .6

1 .7

79*606
~ 79*895
- 0 .9

79*835 '
80*127

11-76

2 .2

2 .2

2 .3

2 .6

1 .8

4 .5

12-76

2 *4

2 .5

2 .6

2 .9

2 .4

4 .1

3 .7

1-77

2 .5

2 .5

2 .7

2 .9

2 .6

3 .6

3 .4

3 .1

2-77

2 .7

2 .«

2 .9

3 .2

3 .0

3 .9

3 .8

3 .6

4 .5

60*370
80*574
80,870

3-77

3 .1

3 .3

3 .4

3 .7

3 .6

4 .6

4 .6

4 .9

5 .8

7 .1

4-77

3 .2

3 .4

3 .5

3 .6

3 .7

4 .5

4 .5

4 .7

5 .3

5 .7

4 .3

5—
77

3*2

3 .4

3 .5

3 .«

3 .7

4 .3

4 .3

4 .4

4 .8

4 .9

3 .6

3 .2

8 i,3 M
81*620
81*837

6-77

3 .4

3 .5

3 .6

3 .9

3 .0

4 .4

4 .4

4 .5

4 .8

4 .9

4 .1

4 .0

4 .8

7-77

3 .4

3 .5

3 .6

3 .«

3 .8

4 .3

4 .3

4 .4

4 .6

4 .6

4 .0

3 .9

4 .3

3 .7

•-77

3 .2

3 .3

3 .4

3 .6

3 .5

4 .0

3 .9

4 .0

4 .1

4 .0

3 .4

3 .2

3 .2

2 .3

1 .0

3 .4

3 .5

3 .7

3 .6

4 .0

4 .0

4 .0

4 .1

4 .0

3 .6

3 .4

3 .4

3 .0

2 .6

9-77

3 .3

82.157
^2~*407~
82**74
82, 76^

4 .3

10-77

3 .2

3 .3

3 .4

3 .5

3 .5

3 .8

3 .6

3 .8

3 .9

3 .8

3 .3

3 .2

3 .2

2 .7

2 .4

3 .2

2 .0

11-77

3 .3

3 .4

3 .5

3 .6

3 .6

3 .9

3 .9

3 .4

4 .0

3 .9

3 .*

3 .4

3 .4

3 .1

3 .0

3 .7

3 .4

4 .7

3 .3

3 .4

3 .5

3 .6

3 .5

3 .9

¿ .8

3 .8

3 .9

3 .6

3 .5

3 .4

3 .4

3 .1

i.O

3 .6

* .3

4 .6

5-76

6-76

7-76

•-76

9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76

1-77

2-77

3-77

4-77

5-77

6-77

7-77

8-77

12-77

82*902
83,222F
572

83*439P

9-77 10-77 11-77

IN IT IA L MONTH
P - PRELIM IN A RY_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ ______________________
PREPAREO aV FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- JANUARY U , 19*8----------------------------------




2

E MP L O Y ME N T
RATIO

SCALE

MILLIONS

RATIO

OF P E R S O N S

1969

1970

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1971

Î972

1973

MILLIONS

1974

1975

1976

SCALE

OF P E R S O N S

1977

SOURCE« U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* OECEMBER PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

UNE MPL OY ME N T R A T E *
PERCENT




SEASONALLY

ADJUSTED

PERCENT
10.0

9.0
8.0

7.0
6.0

5.0
4.0
3.0

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

1976

1977

SOURCEt U .S . DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
PERCENT OF C IV IL IA N LABOR FORCE
LATEST DATA PLOTTEOt DECEMBER
* 1 9 7 7 R E V IS E D .

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T .

3

L O U IS

2 .0

___U ffU w K R H llW C IHPfcA« SfeASOIIAULY A PJU ST e JP______*
CONPOUNOCD ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE

'
TERMINAL
MONTH

,—
1967 * 100

IN IT IA L MONTH
5-74

4-74

7-74

•-74

1-77

9-74 10-74 11-74 12-74

2-77

3-77

4-77

5-77

4-77

7-77

6-77

9-77 10-77 11-77
170.2

4-74

5*1

7-74

5*4

5*6

•—
74

5*5

5*0

5*6

9-74

5 .2

5*3

5*0

4*3

171.0
171.6
172.4

10-74

5*0

5*0

4 .6

4*3

4*3

11-74

4*$

4 *7

4*5

4 *0

3*9

3*5

12-74

4*6

4 *6

4 *4

4*2

4*2

4*2

5*0

173.0
173.5
174*2
175*6

1-77

5 *4

5*5

5*5

5*4

5*7

4*1

7*5

10*1

2-77

4*2

4 *3

4 *4

4*5

7*0

7 *4

9*1

11*2

i2 * 3

3-77

4 *3

4*5

4*4

4*7

7*1

7 *7

6*7

10*0

10*0

177.3
178.4

7 .7

4-77

4 *4

4*6

4 *9

7*1

7*5

6 *0

6*9

10*0

9*9

6*6

9*6

5-77

4 *7

4 *9

7*0

7*1

7*5

6 *0

••7

9*5

9*3

6 *4

6 .7

7 .4

4-77

4*7

4 *9

7*0

7*1

7*4

7*6

6 *4

9*0

6*6

6 *0

6 .1

7*2

4*6

7-77

4 *4

4*7

4*6

4*9

7*1

7*5

6*0

6 *4

6 .1

7 .3

7 .2

4 .4

5 .6

4 *7

•-77

4 *4

4*5

4 *4

4*4

4*9

7 .1

7*5

7 .6

7 .5

4 .6

4 .4

5 .6

5 .2

4 *4

4 .0

9-77

4*3

4 *3

4*4

4*4

4*4

4*0

7 .2

7 .4

7 .1

4 *4

6*1

5 .4

4 .9

4*2

4 .0

4 *0

10-77

4*1

4*2

4*2

4*2

4*4

4 *5

4*6

7 .0

4 .7

4*0

5*7

5 .1

4 .4

4 .0

3 .6

3*7

179*6
1 80.9
181*9
182.6
163.2
183.6
3*3

184.3

11-77

6*1

4*1

4*2

4*2

4*3

4 *5

4*7

4*9

4 .4

4*0

5 .6

5 .2

4*6

4 .4

4 .3

4 .4

4 .7

4 .0

12-77

4*0

4*1

4*1

4*1

4*2

4 *4

4*4

4*7

4 .4

5*6

5 .4

5 .1

4 .6

4 .4

4 .4

4*5

4 .6

5 .3

* = K l 10-76 11-71 12-71

lr T T

-2=77 . Ir 7 7

*-7 7

SrT T

5-76 .A~7fc .

ft=76

185.2
4 .4

185.9

6 r 7 I _ I- 7 2 _ _ftr77.. 9-77 JLGL-77-.H r 2 7 .

INITIAL H
flhTH

H E P A R E P B Y FEDERAL RESERVE BU M flF S T . LO U IS
JANUARY 20t 1979

WHOLESALE PRICES - ALL CONNOOITIESt SEASONALLY AOJUSTEO
_____________ CONPOUNOCD ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE__________
IN I H A L MONTH
MONTH
5-76
4-74

5 *4

7 r7 4

•-76

1-77

9 -7 * 10-76 11-76 12-76

2-77

3-77

4-77

5-77

4-77

7-77

6-77

9-77 10-77 11-77

4*1

7-74

4-74

182.8
4 *7

1 6 3 .5

•-74

2 *9

1*3

-1 **

9-74

4 .2

1 *5

3 .0

6*1

10-74

4 *5

4 *2

4 *0

7*1

4*0

11-74

5*0

4 .6

4 *1

7 .2

6 .7

7 .4

12-74

5*4

5*3

5 .4

7 .4

7*1

7 .7

1-77

5*5

5 *4

5*5

7 .1

4*6

7 .1

7*0

5 .9

2-77

4 *3

4 *3

4 .5

1 .0

6*0

6 *5

6*9

9 *3

Jt- 1 1

1 *1

7*1

7 *4

!> •

.1 *4

10*0

Jt r U

7*1

7 *7____1 *1 ____1 * * ___ 1 *

*0 *2

IQ «7

U*4

l i * 4 _ _ H »6

T>>___ 7 .4

7 .7 ___ C a J___ b S ___ t i i ____f t 7

10*0

l l t ff

6 *2

4 ,1

7 .0

T>>

5-77

JtrTf

_____ ^
•-77

»»2

183*2

7 «?

1 6 4 .4

T a

1 6 5 .3

T»2

184*4
6 .0

7*2

167*4

_

11*6

1 8 6 .5
1 2 .6
.

15*1

1 90.4
U *4

„m * 4
1 1 *» ____ ____

_H 1 *2 _

11 *2 ____1*1___ 1 *1 _

J1 2 * 2 _

l> f

>*4

HU2

19 4 .lR

>*2____2*2____2*2____2*1____2*6____2 *4 ____2*1___ 2*1____ 5*5___ 1 *1

2*5___ 9

t l. ^

____1*2

5*2

3 .»

lfc=HL

5 *4

5*5

»*4

11=17

5 .7

5 *7

5*>

U r J J

5*7

5 *7 ____2*1____1*1___ 1*2____4 *2 ____1*1____2*1____2*1____1*1___ 1 *1 ___ 1 *1 ___ 1*1___ ! * ! _
7-74

193*9

l» g _ .A g .- .:g .d L - = f t * .

5 *3

4-74

M

____2*4____2*4____2*4___ 2*1____2-1____4 *0

Jb fE L.

5-74

193,6

^ 5 ___________ 1*1 ___ 1*1____1*2 ____1*1____5*1____5*7____1 *1 ____I t l - d U l - -4 *3 - - 1 * 6

^ > 1 ____6*1___ 1*1 ____2*1___ 5 .7 ____2*1___ 4 *1 ____1*4___ ¿* 1 ____1*5___ 1*6

6*0

6 .3 ____1*2____1*2____1*1____2*2____2 * ?____2*2____4*2____2*1____2*2___ 4*1 l _

6-74

9-74 10-74 11-74 12-74

1-77

2-77

3-77

4-77

5-77

4-77

194*6

•1____S *2 _
10*3

J i i ____f> 4
&*2

7*4

7-77

0-77

6 ,3

194*4
1*9
7*2

-137*6.
5*4

196*7

9-77 10-77 U - 7 7

IH IT tA L HCMTH

R - REVISED




PREPARED »V FEDERAL R ESERV E RANK OF ST* LO U IS
JANUARY 12* 1976

4




PRICES

RAT I O SCALE

RAT I O SCALE

P E R C E N T A G E S A R E A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N C E F O R P E R I O D S INOICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED« DECEMBER

RATIO SCALE

P R E P A R E O S T F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S

WHOLESALE P R I C E S

1967-100

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

RATIO SCALE

1967-100

P E R C E N T A C C S A R E A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A M 6 E F O R P C R I O O S I N O ICATC0.
LATEST OAT A PLOTTED t tCCCMtCR

PREPARCO *Y FCOCRM. RESERVE SANK OF S T. LOUIS

5

WHOLESALE P R IC ES - IN D U STRIA L COMMODITIES« SEASONALLY AOJUSTED
_ _____________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
_
m tu a A i
MONTH

1967 « 100

IN IT IA L MONTH
3-76 10-76 11-76 12—
76

1-77

2-77

3-77

W 7

5-T7

6-77

7-77

8-77

9-77 10-77 11-77
181,2

2 .4

182*2

-M Tfr

-1*2____6 *fi_

-ArZfr.

-2*5___ 1*2___ 2*5_

9-76

7*9

8 .5

8*0

10-76_____ 5*5____5*1____9 ,3

_ ^ J3 .3 __
9 .6

18* *7

1 0 .2

186*3

IQ >9

-5*4___ 5*5___ 2*£___ 2*5_

ll- 7 fr

_5*fl_

______
188*1

7 .6

1-77

7 .6

7 .7

7 .8

7 .3

6 .1

189.1

5 .2

-2.-27-

-2*2___ 2*2___ 2*4___ 2*2___ 2*fr___ 4*2___ 6*3___ 2*fr_— -5*fr_

_5=22_

_2 *5____2*9____8*0____8*1____7 .8

-4=22_____ 7*8___ 7 .9

-Sr77 -

8 .0 ____ 8 .0

7 .8

1 * 9 *4

7 .2

7 .0

8 .1

8 .9

9 .2

7 .3

7 .2

8 .0

8 .5

8 .5

7 .8

„1 2 5 * ^

193«7 _

_2*fr___ 2*5___ 2*fr___ 2*fr___ 2*4___ fe*2___ 5*2___ 2*3— -2*5___ 2*1___ fr*l___ 4*±_

fr-77

_2*5___ 2*2___ 2*1___ 7.2

7 .0

6 .»

6 .3

6 .7

7-77

—
2*1-----2*1___ 2*1___ 2*1____6 .9

6 .6

6*2

6.6 ___ 6.6___ 6*2___ 5*4___6 .6___ 4« 7___ 5*2_

»-77

—
2*1----- 2*1----- 2*1___ 2*£___ 6

6 . 6 ______

6*2______6

.8

.5

6 .7

6 *3

5 .1

6 .1

3 .8

___ fe»?___ fu2___ 5*6___ ? t l.

.

195.2

5*3___ 6.Q___ 6*3__

126*2.
1 9 J.8

*4 ____5 *1 __ 15*2__

198.9

-7*1..- 7*8____8*5____6* S _

11= 22-

-7*1

1 2 -7 7

,7tt----- 2*1----- 2*1-----6*2-----6*6___ 6*5-----6*2-----6*5----- 6*6___ fr»2

_1 *2
22 _

6»Q___ 6*3___ 6*5___ 2*1___ 2*5___ 5*2___ 4« 9

7 .1

7 .1

7 .1

7 .0

6 .9

6 .6

6 .5

6 .7

6 .7

6 .5

6 .2

6 .0

6 .3

6 .7

6 .9

7 .0

6 .0

5 .6

6 .2

5 - 7 6

6 - 7 6

7 - 7 6

• - 7 6

9 - 7 6

1 0 - 7 6

1 1 -7 6

1 2 -7 6

1 - 7 7

2 - 7 7

3 - 7 7

6 - 7 7

5 - 7 7

6 - 7 7

7 - 7 7

• - 7 7

9 - 7 7

1 0 - 7 7

1 1 - 7 7

IN IT IA L

R

-

m *^ R

m

* 7 _

M ON TH

R E V IS E D
W HO LESALE

P R IC E S - F A R N

PRO O UCTS

COM POUNDED

AND

ANNUAL

J N IT 1 A J .

T E R M IN A L

PRO CESSEO
RA TES

O F

FO O D S

AND

FEE O Sv

SEAS .

AD J .

CHANGE

M CM TH

1 9 6 7

*

10 0

M O N TH
5 - 7 6

6 - 7 6

7 - 7 6

8 -7 6

9 -7 6

1 0 -7 0

1 1 -7 6

1 2 -7 6

1 - 7 7

2 - 7 7

3 - 7 7

4 - 7 7

5 - 7 7

6 - 7 7

7 - 7 7

• - 7 7

9 - 7 7

1 9 -7 7

1 1 —7 7
1 8 7 .0

6 —7 6

6 .6

7 - 7 6

- 1 . 6

- 7 . 6

• —7 6

- 1 1 - 9

- 1 9 .1

1 8 5 .8
- 2 9 . 3

1 8 0 .5
1 8 1 .1

9 -7 6

—8 . 1

- 1 2 .0

- 1 6 .2

6 * 1

1 0 -7 6

- 7 . «

—1 0 * 7

—1 1 * 7

- 1 * 3

- 6 .6

1 1 -7 6

—6 . 5

- • . 6

- « . 9

- 0 .9

- 3 . 3

0 .0

1 2 -7 6

- 2 . 1

- 3 .2

- 2 . 3

5 .9

6 .6

1 3 .7

1 8 0 .1
1 8 0 .1
_ U 4 * 0

2 9 .3

1 S 4 * !L _

1 - 7 7

- 1 * 6

- 2 . 3

- 1 . 6

5 .6

5 .7

1 0 .1

1 5 .6

3 .3

2 -7 7

1 .6

1 .0

2 .2

8 .7

9 .7 _

1 6 .1

1 9 .2

1 4 .5

2 6 .9

3 - 7 7

3 .8

3 . 7

5 .2

1 1 .6

1 2 .6

1 6 .9

2 1 .5

1 9 .1

2 7# «

* « • 7

6 - 7 7

6 .8

7 .0

• • 7

1 6 .7

1 6 .3

2 0 .6

2 5 .2

2 6 .2

3 2 .1

3 4 .8

..

1 5 5 .2

1 9 2 .2
1 9 7 .8

4 1 .1

5 - 7 7

6.4

6 .6

• - 1

1 3 .3

1 6 .5

1 7 .8

2 1 .1

1 9 .5

2 6 .0

2 3 .0

2 0 .3

6 - 7 7

2 .3

2 .1

3 . 1

7 .0

7 .4

9 .2

1 0 .6

7 .8

8 .7

4 .5

- 2 . 5

- 1 8 .9

- 3 5 .9

7 - 7 7

0 .3

0 .0

0 .6

3 .9

3 .9

5 .1

5 .8

2 .8

2 .7

- 1 . 5

- 7 . 9

- 2 0 .1

- 2 9 .5

• - 7 7

- 1 . 6

- l . f l

- 1 . 3

1 .6

1 .2

2 .0

2 .2

- 0 .7

- 1 . 3

- 5 . 3

- 1 1 .0

- 2 0 .7

9 - 7 7

- 1 . 6

- 2 . 0

- 1 . 6

0 .9

0 .7

1 .3

1 .5

- 1 . 2

-1 * 8

- 5 . 3

-10 * C L - 1 7 . 5

1 0 - 7 7

- 0 - 6

—0 - 9

- 0 . 5

2 .0

1 .8

2 .6

2 .«

0 .5

0 * 1

- 2 .8

1 1 -7 7

0 .9

0 .7

1 .2

3 .7

3 .7

6 .5

6 .9

2 .9

2 .9

0 * 5

-* * 6

-7 * 6 .

- * .2

- 2 .6

3 .1

1 5 * 3

2 3 .8

3 1 .4 1 -

1 2 -7 7

1 .1

1 .0

1 .5

3 .8

3 .8

6 .6

4 .9

3 .1

3 .1

1 .0

- 1 . 7

- 6 .1

- 7 . 2

- 1 . 6

3 .5

1 1 .2

1 7 .3

1 7 .4

5 .2

5 - 7 6

6 - 7 6

7 - 7 6

• - 7 6

9 - 7 6

1 0 -7 6

1 1 -7 6

1 2 -7 6

1 - 7 7

2 - 7 7

3 - 7 7

4 —7 7

5 - 7 7

6 - 7 7

7 - 7 7

• - 7 7

9 - 7 7

1 0 - 7 7

1 1 - 7 7




IN IT IA L

m

2 * 5 ........................

_ -6 * 6 . - 1 2 * 5 .

. 2

1 9 1 .0
- 2 2 .4

.

- 2 7 .2

- 2 2 .4

-2 2 * 3

- 2 2 .2

- 1 7 .0 _ - 1 4 .2 _

1 5 7 .Q
1 8 3 .1
- 5 .1

1 5 2 *3_
.1 5 4 .7 .

- 1 5 .6

1 8 8 .9
1 8 9 .7

M O NTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESERV E BANK OF S T . LO UIS
JANUARY 12 . 1978

6

INDUSTRIAL

PRODUCTION
RA TI O SCALE

RA T I O SCALE

1967-100

1969

1967-100

SEASONALL Y ADJ USTED

1970

17
91

1972

1973

1974

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO O S
LA T EST OATA PLOTTED«

1975

1976

1977

IN D IC A T ED .

DECEMBER P R E L IM IN A R Y
PREPAREO BY FEDERAL R E SE R V E BANK OF S T .

L O U IS

IN D USTRIA L PRODUCTION
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
IN IT IA L MONTH

TERMINAL
MONTH
H 6

8-76

7-76

9-76 10-76 11-76

1-77

2-77

3-77

1967 « 100
4-77

5-77

7-77

8-77

4 *7

130.7

9*6

8-76

5*0

7 .1

5 .7

2*1

2*5

- 0 .5

—
6*2

10-76

0 .9

0 .9

- 1 .5

-4*9

- 3 .6

11-76

2 .8

3 .2

1 .8

0 .6

4*2

1 2 .7

12-76

4 .4

5 .0

4 .3

3 .9

7 .6

1 3 .6

1 4 .6

1-77

3 *0

3*3

2 .5

1*8

*•0

6*6

3 .7

-6* 1

5*3

131*3
130*6
130*2
131 *J>
133*0
132*3

2-77

3*6

4 .0

3*3

2*9

4*8

7*1

0*9

8*5

3-77

5*2

5 .7

r»*3

5*3

7 .3

9*7

8*9

7*1

-< *4
►

20*6

4-77

5 .4

5 .9

5 .5

5 .5

7 *3

9*3

8*6

7*2

12*0

13*8

7 *j

8*5 .

7 t4 _ 11*0

11*9

7*8

8*2

8 .*

7*3

10*3

10*7

7*6

7*7

7*2

133*2
135*3
136*1

5-77

— *6
5

6 .1

5 .8

5 .8

7*4

9*1

-*=17

_ 5 .8

6 .2

5*9

6 .0

7*4

8*9

JL-77
..

_^ *?

6 .3

6 .1

6*2 .... 7*5_

8 .8

7*5

9 .9

10*2

7*7

7 .9

7 .7

jfir7 7

5 .1

5 .5

5 .2

5 .2

6 .3

7 .3

6 .7

5 .8

7 .6

7*5

5*0

4 .5

3*3

1*3

-5 *1

5 .1

5*1

k*0

7*Q

6*4

5*6

7 *1

4 .3

3*3

2*0

-0 *9

3*5

..4»9_

5*8

6*6

6* 1_

5*3.

4 *8 . - S l»1

6 .*

5 .9

4*7

6*2

5 .7

S-77

5 *0 .

10-77
. _

9-77 10-77 11-77
129*8

9-76

_

6-77

0 .9

7-76

6-76

Y
0

5—
76

_A *9

5*2

4*V

11-77

...- A ..?

¿« 1

* .9

.5 * 0

4*8

6-76

7 -7 *

12.TJ7
5-76

.

_

8-76

.

137.0
137.8
8 .1

13 8. 7
138. 1
138. 5

..£*6

6*4

4*5

4*0

3*2

2*2

0*3

3*1

2*6

13tt.8

5*2

6 .4

6*2

4 .5

4*1

3 .4

2*6

1*3

3*5

3 .5

1 3 9 . 3P

¿* 0

6*0

5*8

4 .3

3 *9

3.3^

2 .6

1*6

3*3

3*2

9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76

1-77

2-77

3-77

4-77

6-77

7-77

8-77

5*5

..

5-77

3*5

2*6

139.OH

9-77 10-77 11-77

IN IT IA L MONTH
P- PRELIM IN A RY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS
JANUARY 18* 1978

7

P E R S O N A L I NCOME
R A T I O SCALE
MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES
RA TI O SCALE
T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS
S EASONALL Y ADJ USTED
T R I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS

1.7
1 .6

1.5
1.4
1.3
1 .2
1. 1
1 .0

0.9
0. 8

0.7

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974

1975

SOURCEt U . S .
P ERCEN TAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO O S

1976

1977

. . .

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

INO ICATED.

LA T EST DATA PLOTTED« DECEMBER P R ELIM IN A R Y
P R E P A R 'D BY FEDERAL R E SE R V E BANK OF S T .

L O U IS

PERSONAL INCOME
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE
TERMINAL
MONTH

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

INITIAL MONTH
5-74

'^ 7 4

i-n

• •*

4-74

7 -76

•-74

9— *4 16-74 11-74 12-74

1-77

2-77

3-77

4-77

5-77

4-77

7-77

•-77

9-77 10-77 11-77

4 •)

•— 76

7 *8

1 *3 72 .7

12.5

1 ,3 8 6 .2

91
7

4#7

1 «393.7

9— 76

7 »4

4 *4

6.9

7*2

10—76

• .3

9.3

!•!

9.2

11.1

lt-76

9.4

16* V

10*1

11«*

13*7

14.5

12-74

10.5

1 «401.8
1 «414,2

i »432 n

li.6

11*4

12.7

143

I4.S

14*5

10*4

1-77

10*1

ld.t

11.7

11.•

9.t

3*4

1 *450.2
1 «454.3

2-77

10 •*

11*4

11.*

12*9

1J«4

15*9

13.1

11*4

20.4

% ~ T 9

11.6

12. 5

12*5

15*1

14*4

15*0

14.7

14*2

20*0

i*.5

4-7t

11*4

12*1

K .l

i2.r

li.6

14*0

ii«4

12.9

16.i

14.2

9.2

S Z f f "

10*9

li. 5

11.5

12.0

12.6

12.4

12.3

11.4

13.4

11*4

7.5

6—77

1Ö.5

11*6

10*9

11.i

11.«

11.9

11.3

10.5

11.9

9.9

4 .4

1 *4 77 .0
1 «499.1
1 *510.1

5.9

1 *5 17 .3

5 .4

5 .7

1 «524.3

7-77

10*4

11*1

11*0

11.4

11*9

12*0

11*4

10*7

12*0

10.4

••2

7.9

9.0

12.4

•-77

10*5

10.9

10.«

iia

11.5

11.5

11.0

16*4

11*4

10.0

•.2

"7 .4

••4

10.1

7.9

♦-77

10*4

10.«

10*7

n .i

11«4

1 1 *4

1 0 .9

10*3

11*2

1 0 .0

••5

••3

9 .0

10.1

0.9

1 *5 39 .2
1 «549.0
1 0 .0

1 «561.3

10-77

1 0 .9

1 1 .1

1 1 .2

11*4

1 1 .9

12*0

1 1 .4

11.2

1 2 .0

11.0

9.9

10 .0

1 0 .«

12.2

12.1

14.3

ie .7

11-77

1 1 .0

11*4

ii.3

11*7

12*0

12*0

11*7

11*3

1 2 .1

1 1 .2

1 0 .2

1 0 .4

11.1

12.3

12.2

13.7

15.7

12.7

12-77

11*2

11.6

11.5

11.0

12«2

12*2

11*9

11.4

12*3

11.4

10.7

10.9

11.4

12.7

12.7

13.9

15.3

13.4

5-74

4-74

7-74

•-74

9 - % 10-74 11-74 12-74

1-77

2-77

3- 77

4-77

5-77

4-77

7-77

•-77

9-77 10-77 11— 77

1 «583.8
1 *5 99 .6

14.4

1 »617.9P

INITIAL MONTH
P- PRELIMINARY




PREPARED »V FEOCRAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

8

RETA IL
R A T I O SCAL E
B I L L I O N S OF DOL L ARS

SALES
R A T I O SCAL E
B I L L I O N S OF DOL L ARS

S E ASONALL Y ADJ USTED

SOURCEt

9c»rcuT*ec«

»*tc*

LA T EST DATA PLOTTEOt

NOVEMBER,

U .S .

DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

cnt »comne • iCATEO
un

f\c

DECEMBER ADVANCE E ST IM A T E
PREPAREO BY FED ERAL R E S E R V E BANK OF S T .

L O U IS

»ST A LL $ A ^ $
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
IN IT IA L MONTH

ERM1MAL
IONTH
5-76

6-76

7-76

8-76

9-76 10-76 11-76 12-76

1-77

2-77

3-77

M ILLIO N S OF
DOLLARS
4-77

5-77

6-77

7-77

8-77

9-77 10-77 11-77
52»916

6-76

1 5 .1

7-76

7 .7

0 .7

8-76

7 .1

3 .2

5 .8

9-76

6 .3

3 .5

4 .9

4 .0

10-76

8 .8

7 .3

9 .6

1 1 .5

52»946
53*197
53»370
1 9 .6

54,171

11-76

9 .9

8 .9

1 1 .0

1 2 .8

1 7 .5

1 5 .4

,2-76

1+.8

1 4 .8

1 7 .8

2 1 .0

2 7 .3

3 1 .3

4 9 .3

56 »6 85

1-77

9 .9

9 .2

1 0 .7

1 1 .7

1 3 .7

1 1 .8

1 0 .0 -1 8 .9

55 »703

2-77

1 2 .9

1 2 .7

: 4 .5

1 6 .0

1 8 .5

1 8 .3

1 9 .3

6 .6

4 0 .1

3-77

13 .2

1 3 .0

1 4 .6

1 5 .9

le .i

1 7 .8

1 8 .4

9 .5

2 7 .3

1 5 .7

4-77

1 2 .3

1 2 .0

1 3 .3

1 4 .3

1 5 .8

1 5 .2

15 .2

7 .9

18 .7

9 .2

54»822

57»291
57»990
3 .2

58 »142

1-7 T

1 0 .9

1 0 .5

1 1 .6

12 .2

1 3 .3

1 2 .4

1 1 .9

5 .7

1 2 .9

5 .1

0*1

- 2 .8

6-77

9 .7

9 .3

1 0 .1

1 0 .5

1 1 .3

1 0 .3

9 .6

4 .1

9 .4

2*8

- 1 .1

-3 .2

- 3 .6

7-77

1 0 .2

9 .8

1 0 .6

1 1 .0

1 1 .8

1 0 .9

1 0 .4

5 .7

1 0 .5

5 .4

2 .9

2 .9

5 .8

16.2

8-77

1 0 .2

9 .8

1 0 .5

1 0 .9

1 1 .6

1 0 .8

1 0 .3

6 .2

1 0 .4

6 .1

4 .3

4 .6

7 .2

13.1

1 0 .0

9-77

9 .5

9 .1

9 .7

1 0 .1

1 0 .6

9 .8

9 .2

5 .5

9 .0

5 .2

3 .6

3 .6

5 .3

8 .5

4 .8

- 0 .1

0-77

1 1 .2

1 0 .9

1 1 .7

12 .1

1 2 .7

12 .2

11 .9

8 .7

12 .3

9 .3

8 .4

9 .3

1 1 .9

16.1

1 6 .1

1 9 .3

4 2 .4

il—
77

1 1 .4

1 1 .2

1 1 .9

1 2 .3

1 2 .9

1 2 .4

12.1

9 .3

1 2 .6

9 .9

9 .2

10.0

1 2 .4

1 5 .9

1 5 .8

1 7 .8

2 7 .9

14.8

12-77

1 0 .3

1 0 .0

1 0 .6

10 .9

1 1 .4

A 0.8

1 0 .4

7 .7

1 0 .5

7 .9

7 .1

7 .6

9 .2

1 1 .5

1 0 .5

1 0 .7

14*5

2 .7

58*003
57*825
58*552
59*020
59»01*
60,778
61 »482P
- 8 .1

IM ITI 4L MOHTH
UNAEV
fc- fcSTlKATfcO




pgftgARftO BY FEDERAL RFSFRVF BAM
*
JANUARY 10» 1978

9

fcl*048E

HOURLY COMPENSATION* PR IV A T E BU SIN ESS SECTOR
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE

TERMINAL

1967 * 100

IN IT IA L QUARTER

QUARTER

4 -7 2

1 -73

2 -7 3

3 -7 3

4 -7 3

1 -7 4

2 -7 4

3-7 4

4 -7 4

1-75

2 -7 5

3-75

4 -7 5

1-76

2 -7 6

3-7 6

4 -7 6

1-77

2 -7 7

13*9

146.5

2 -73

9*5

5 .3

148 .*

3-73

8 *6

6 .1

6 .9

4-73

8 .7

7 .0

7 .8

8 .8

1-74

8 .5

7 .2

7 .8

8 .2

7 .7

2 -74

9 .2

8 .3

9 .0

9 .7

10.2

12.8

3 -74

9 .6

8 .9

9 .7

1 0 .4

11.0

12.6

12.4

4-7 4

9 .8

9 .2

9 .9

10.5

1 0 .9

12 .0

1 1.6

10.7

1-73

150.9
154.1

r\
157.0

161.8
166.6
170.9

I —75

10.1

9 .7

1 0 .3

10 .9

11.3

12.2

12.0

11.9

13.0

2-75

9 .8

9 .3

9*8

1 0.3

1 0 .5

11.1

10.6

10.0

9 .7

6 .5

179*0

3-75

9 .3

8 .9

9 .3

9 .6

9 .7

10.0

9 .4

8 .7

8.0

5 .6

181*1

176*2

V\5.6%

4-75

9 .2

8*8

9 .1

9 .4

9 .5

9 .7

9 .2

8 .6

8 .1

6 .5

6 .5

8*2

1-76

9 .5

9 .1

9 .5

9 .8

9 .9

10.2

9 .8

9 .3

9.1

8 .1

8*7

10*7

2-76

9 .4

9 .1

9 .4

9 .6

9*7

9 .9

9 .6

9 .2

8 .9

8*1

8*5

9*8

10*7

•*2

184*7

\

190*5

13*2

194*3

3-76

9 .4

9 .1

9 .4

9 .6

9 .7

9 .9

9 .5

9 .2

9 .0

8 .3

8 .7

9 .7

10.2

8 .7

9 .2

4-7 6

9 .3

9 .0

9 .3

9 .5

9 .6

9 .7

9 .4

9 .1

8 .9

C
O

fO

•

8 .6

9*4

9 .7

8*6

8 .8

9 .6

9 .7

9 .9

9 .6

9 .3

9 .2

8*7

9*0

9*8

10*1

9 .3

9 .7

1-77

9*5

9 .2

9 .5

2-77

9 .3

9 .0

9 .3

9 .4

9 .5

9 .6

9 .3

9 .1

8 .9

8 .5

8*7

9*3

9 .5

8 .7

3-77

9*3

9 .0

9 .2

9 .4

9 .4

9 .5

9 .3

9 .0

8*9

8 .5

8*7

9*2

9*3

8 .7

*=72

1-73

2 -7 3

1=1* _ * = !* _ 3 -7 4

4“ 7*

1-75

3-75

*-75

1-76

4 -7 3

198*6
202*7

8 .5 N v

208*3

1 0 .0

11.5

8 .9

8 .8

8 .9

6 .3

8 .8

8 .7

8 .8

7 .4

2 -7 * .3 - 7 *

* r7 *

1-77

¿1 1*5

8 .6 Ì

215*9

Z t 71

INITIAL QUARTER

OUTPUT PER HOUR OF ALL PERSONS« PRIVATE BUSINESS SECTOR
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
1967 « 100

IN IT IA L QUARTER

TERMINAL
QUARTER

4 -7 2

1-73

2 -7 3

3-7 3

4 -7 3

1-74

2 -7 4

3-7 4

4 -7 4

1-75

2 -7 5

3-75

4 -7 5

1-76

2 -7 6

3 -76

4-76

1-77

2 -7 7
ll* * l

1-73

5*8

2-73

0 .5

-4 .5

3-73

-0 .2

-3 .1

4-73

-0 * 1

-2 .0

-0 * 7

1-74

-1 * 2

-2 .9

-2 * 4

-2 * 7

-5 * 6

2-7*

- 1 *4

-2 .8

-2 .4

-2 .6

—
4*1

r \

112*8
112*3

— 1 .8 "

112**

0*4"

110*8

-2 * 5 ^

110*1
109.3

3-74

-1 .6

-2 .8

-2 * 5

-2 .7

-3 *7

-2 .7

-2 .9 V

4 -7 4

-1 .7

-2 .8

-2 * 5

-2 .6

-3 *4

-2*6

-2 * 7

-2 * 5 "

1-75

-1 * 4

-2 .3

-2 * 0

-2 .0

-2 * 5

-1 * 7

-1 * 5

-0*7

U1V \ 9. 2 %

108.9

0*6

1*5

2*9

5*8

10*7"

111.7

108*6

-0 .9

-0 * 5

-0 * 3

-0 *4

0 .4

-0 .1

0 .4

0 .7

0*7

1.8

2 .7

4*1

6 .4

9 .2

7*7" w

0 .2

-0 .3

0*2

0 .4

0*4

1 .3

1 .9

2 .9

4 .3

5 .4

2*9

-1 .7 "

0 .8

1.1

1*2

2*1

2 .7

3*7

5*0

6*0

4*4

2*8

2-75

-0 * 3

3-75
4-75

113.8
113.3

11*>.4

7*6

1-76

0*8

0 .4

2-76

1*0

0 .6

1*0

1*3

1*4

2*2

2*8

3*6

4 .7

5*4

4*1

2*9

5 .4

3-76

1*1

0*8

1.2

1*4

1*5

2 .3

2 .8

3*6

4 .5

5 .0

3 .9

3*0

4 .6

3. 2
3 .1

\ 2 .6 %
3 .1

4-76

1 .0

0 .7

1 .1

1.3

1 .4

2 .1

2 .5

3 .2

3 .9

4 .3

3 .3

2*4

3 .4

2*1

1*6

0 .0 ^

1-77

1 .3

1 .0

1 .4

1.6

1*7

2*4

2*8

3*4

4*1

4 .5

3 .6

3*0

3 .9

3*0

3*0

2*9

5*9"

2-77

1 .2

0 .9

1*2

1 .4

1*5

2*1

2*5

3*0

3 .6

3*8

3 .0

2*3

3 .0

2*1

1*9

1*5

2*2

-U 3 S

3-77

1*4

1.1

1*4

1 .7

1*7

2*3

2*7

3*1

3*7

3*9

3 .2

2*6

3*3

2*6

2 .5

2*3

3*1

1*7

* -7 2

1-73

2 -7 3

3 -7 3

4 -7 3

1-74

2 -7 4

3-7 4

4 -7 4

1-75

2 -7 5

3-75

4 -7 5

1-76

2 -7 6

3-7 6

*—76

1 -77




116.3
117.2
117*2
118.9
118.5

4*8')

119.9

2 -7 7

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PRfcEA&EQ ftt FEDERAL R ESERV E BANK OF S T . LO U IS

NOVEMBER 29» 1977

10

PRODUCTIVITY,
RATIO

COMPENSATION,

AND LABOR COSTS

SCALE

RATIO

1 9 6 7 - 1 0 0

SEASONALLY

ADJUSTED

SCALE
1 9 6 7 - 1 0 0

S O U RCEt U.S. D E P A R T M E N T Of L A B O R
P E R C E N T A G E S A R E A N N U A L R A T E S OF C H A N C E FOR P E R I O D S
LATEST DATA PLOTTED*

INO ICATEO.

3 RD O U A R T E R
P R E P A R E O BY F E O E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S

U N IT LABOR COSTS* PRIVA TE BU SIN ESS SECTOR
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE
TERMINAL

IN IT IA L QUARTER

____Q A T R
URE

1-73

2-73

3-73

1-74

4-73

2-74

3-74

4-74

1-75

2-75

1 9 6 ? * 100
3-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

3-76

4-76

1-77

2-77

1 = ^
*
1-73
2-73

1 2 8 .4

.8 %
7 *a \ 8
9*1
1 0 .3 " V .

3-73

9 *0

9 .6

1 8 *8

9 .1

8 .5

1-74

9*8

1 0 .4

1 0 .4

1 3 4 .4

8 .8

4-73

13 1 .6

137.1
8* 3 >
\
1 1 .2
1 4 .1

2-74

10*8

1 1 .4

11*6

1 2 .6

1 4 .8

3-74

11*5

12*1

1 2 .5

1 3 .4

1 5 .1

4-74

1 1 .7

1 2 .3

1 2 .6

1 3 .4

1 4 1 .7
\

1 5 .5

14 6 .9

1 5 .7

1 5 .8 "

1 4 .7

1 4 .9

1 4 .7

13 .5 ”

1 3 .7

1 2 .6

152 .4
15 7.3

1-75

1 1 .7

1 2 .2

1 2 .5

1 3 .1

1 4 .1

1 4 .1

2-75

1 0 .1

1 0 .4

1 0 .4

1 0 .6

1 1 .0

1 0 .4

9 .2

7 .1

3-75

8 .9

9 .0

8 .8

8 .8

8 .9

8 .0

6 .6

4 .4

1 .5

9 .0

9 .0

8 .3

7 .2

5 .5

3 .6

16 1 .7

1 U 7 > ^ 3 .2 %
4 .0
-3 .2

1 6 0 .4

-3 .2

159.1

4—
75

9 .0

9 .1

8 .9

1 .1

3 .3

1 0 .2 "

1-76

8 *7

8 .7

8 .6

8 .6

8 .6

7 .9

6 .9

5 .5

3 .9

2 .1

3 .9

7 .7

5 .3

2-76

8 .4

8 .4

8 .3

8 .2

8 .2

7 .6

6 .6

5 .4

4 .1

2 .6

4 .1

6 .7

5 .0

4 .7 " \ 6 ^ i %

16 7 .0

8 ,2

8 .2

8 .1

8 .0

8 .0

7 .4

6 .5

5 .4

4 .3

3 .1

4 .5

6 .5

5 .3

5 .3

5 .9

1 6 9 .4

4-76

8 .2

8 .3

8 .1

8 .1

8 .1

7 .5

6 .8

5 .8

4 .9

3 .9

5 .2

6 .9

6 .1

6 .4

7 .3

1-77

8 .1

8 .1

7 .9

7 .9

7 .8

7 .3

6 .6

5 .7

4 .9

4 .1

5 .2

6 .6

5 .9

6 .1

6 .6

2-77

8 .0

8 .0

7 .9

7 .8

7 .8

7 .3

6 .7

5 .9

5 .2

4 .5

5 .5

6 .8

6 .2

6 .4

6 .8

3-77

7 .8

7 .8

7 .7

7 .6

7 .6

7 .1

6 .5

5 .7

5 .1

4 .4

5 .3

6 .4

5 .9

6 .0

6 .3

3 t 73 _ * r !3

-1=1*

2 -7 * -3-7*

*= Z*

3-23- A r i l

■1- I k

Z r lk

3L-76

3-76

1 -7 3 -




Z r m

1-75- 2-73

1 6 3 .0
165.1

1 7 3 .0
7 .0

5 .2 "

175.2

7 .1

6 .3

1 7 8 .4

6 .4

5 .6

5 .8

4 .1 ^

1 8 0 .2

&= 7t--1.-77 - ¿- 7 7 ____

IN IT IA L QUARTER

M w u t "

,Y

NOVEMMft 2 « t I t n

1
1

■

« « «

or

st.

m u ti

COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE
TERMINAL
--- QU AR TE*

INITIAL QUARTER
1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

2-73

8.4
9.6

10.6

8.2

9. 4

a.o

2-74

•.4

9.7

9.5

9.7

7.4

1-75

2-75

3-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

3-76

4-76

1-77

2-77

3-77

4.9

3-74

4-74

11.9

1—74

3-74

9.3

4-73

2-74

7.5

3-73

1-74

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
1 *2 68 .4
1 *3 17 .5
i ,3 *5 .1

4.2

i,3 6 9 * C ~

7 ,4 %

"l* 4 Ô Ô .T '

v.l

8.9

I *4-30.1

2%

4-74

8.2

8.3

8*1

1-75

7.2

7.1

6.7

5.7

6.1

5.1

3.2

0.2s

2-75

7.7

7.9

7.6

6.8

7.4

6.9

6.2

6.2

3-75

8.9

9.0

9.0

8.6

9.3

9.3

9.4

10.5

16.0 7 Ï 9 . 5

4-75

8.9

9.1

9.0

8 .7

9.3

9.3

9.4

10.2

13.8

14.4

9.5

1-76

9.3

9.4

9.5

9.2

9 .8

9.9

10.1

10.8

13.6

14.0

11,3

13.2 '

2-76

9.4

9.5

9.5

9.3

9.9

9.9

10.1

10.7

13.0

13.0

11.0

11.7

3-76

9.3

9.4

9.4

9.2

9.7

9.8

9.9

10.4

12.2

12.2

10.4

10.7

7.6

6*4

' ‘"¡453.0™
"l
12.6

~ T ,* 9 6 .6
17564*9”
1 »600*7
1 «651*2

10.2 ^ \ M .0 7 o
9.4

1*691*9

8.6

1*727*3

4-76

9.1

9.2

9.2

9.0

9.5

9.5

9.5

9.9

11.4

11.2

9.6

9.7

8.5

7.6

6.7

1-77

9.4

9.5

9.5

9.3

9.8

9.8

9.9

10.3

11.6

11.5

10.2

10.4

9.7

9.5

9.9

2-77

9.6

9.8

9.8

9.6

10.1

10.1

10.2

10.6

11.9

11.8

10.7

10.9

10.5

10.5

11.2

13.5

13.7

3-77

9.7

9.8

9.8

9.7

10.1

10.1

10.2

10.6

11.7

11.6

10.6

10.8

10.4

10.5

10.9

12.4

11.9

10.2

4-77

9.7

9.8

9.9

9.7

10.1

10.2

10.3

10*6

11.6

11.5

10.7

10.8

10.5

10.5

10.9

11.9

11.5

10.4

2-7» .1-71

4-7»

1-74

-Zrlà..- »-74

4-74

1-75

2-75

»-75

4-75

1-7*

2<=2*. 3-76

4-7 *

1-77

2-77

1-73

1 *7 55 .4

13.2 ""V.

1*810*8
1*869*9
1 *9 15 .9

io.r\

1*965 *1P

1-77

-INITIAL QUARTER

CROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CONSTANT 1972 DOLLARS
CONFOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE

&IU1QN O
$ F

INITIAL QUARTER

TERMINAL
k73

2-7»

3-73

4-7 3

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

1-75

2-75

3-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

3-76

4-76

1-77

2-77

3-77

DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
1,231*1

2-73

0.4

3-73

1.1

1.7

4-73

i .4 1

i.9

2.i

1,236*3
1,242.6
1*230.2

1-74

0.0

-0.1

-1.0

-3.9

2-74

-0.3

-0.5

-1.3

-2.9

-1 .9

3-74

- 0.7

-0.9

-

1 .6

*2.7

— 2.2

1,224,5
1,216,9

—2.5

1,199.7

4-74

-1.4

-1.7

-2. 4

-3.5

-33

-4.0

-5.5

1-75

-2.5

-2.9

- 3. 6

-4.7

-4.9

-5.9

-7.6

2-75

-1.5

-1.9

-2.2

-2.9

-2.7

-3.0

-3.1

-1.9

6.4

»-75

-0.3

- 0. 4

- 0. 6

-1.0

-0.5

-0,2

0.3

2.3

9.9

11.4

4-75

0.0

-0.0

-0.2

-0.5

—0.0

0.3

0.9

2.5

7.1

3.0

1-76

0.7

0.7

0.6

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.1

3.7

7.4

7 .7

5.9

8 .8

2-76

1.0

1.1

1.0

0.9

1.5

1.9

2.5

4,0

6.9

7.0

5.6

6.9

5.0

»-76

1.2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.7

2.1

2.7

3.9

6.4

6.4

5.2

5.9

4.5

3.9

4-76

1 .2

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.7

2.0

2.5

3.6

5.6

5.5

4.3

4,7

3.3

2.5

1-77

1 .6

1.7

1.7

1.7

2.1

2.5

3.0

4.0

5.9

5.8

5.2

4.4

4.2

4.3

7,5

1,311,0

2-77

1.9

2.0

2.0

2,0

2.4

1 *3 3 0 .7

3-77

2 .1

2 .1

2 .2

2 .2

4-77

2 .2

2 .3

2 .3

2 .3

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1,169.8

—9«

1,199.2
1,220.7
1,229.8
1,256,0

.7%

1,271,5
1,283,7
1 ,287.4

2.8

3.3

4,2

5.9

5.8

5.1

5.4

4,7

4. 7

4.9

6.8

3.0

3.5

4.3

5.8

5.7

5.1

5.4

4.8

4.7

5.0

6.3

5.6

5.1

2 .7

3 .1

3 .5

4 .3

5 .7

5 .6

5 .0

5 .2

4 .7

4 .7

4 .8

5 .7

5 .2

4 .7

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

1-75

2-75

3-75

4-73

1-76

2-76

3-76

4-76___1-77

2-77

______________ _____________

________________ INITIAL QUÉRTBL______________

_______________ —

1 ,3 4 7 .4
4 .2 !

1 *3 6 1 .AT

3~77

—

»- PRELIMINARY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BA fC OF— T . LO IilS S
JANUARY 19* 1978

12

DEMAND AND P R O D U C T I O N
RATIO

SCALE

TRILLIONS

QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES

OF

DOLLARS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

RATIO

TRILLIONS

OF

SCALE

DOLLARS

1

.9
.8

.7
.6

.5
.4
1.

.3

1.

.7
.6

.5
.4
0 .

.3
.2

I.

.

I.

.0

1

0.9

0 .

0.8

0 .

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973

1974
SOURCE«

1975

1976

1977

U.S. D E P A R T M E N T OF C O M M E R C E

U.CNP IN C UR R EN T DOLLARS.
I2.CNP IN 1972 DOLLARS.
P E R C E N T A G E S A RE A N N U AL R AT E S OF C H A NG E FOR P ER IO D S INDICATED.
L AT ES T DAT A PLOTTED«




4TH Q U A R T E R P R E L I M I N A R Y

PRE PA R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E B A N K OF ST. L O U I S

13

GENERAL P R I C E

INDEX*

R A T I O SCALE

RATIO SCALE

1972-100

1972-100

1969

1970

1971

1972

1973 1974

1975

1976

1977

«AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
SOURCE» U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIOOS IND1CATE0.
LAItSI 0A1A PL01160« 1IM QUARTER PRELIMINARY
PREPAREO BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

CCMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE
TERMINAL
QUARTER

1972 « 100

INITIAL QUARTER
1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74

4-74

3-74

1-75

2-75

3-75

4-75

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

1-77

2-77

3-77
104.45

2-73

7*0

3-73

7*3

7.5

4-73

• •1

••4

9.4

1-74

•♦2

••5

9.0

104.57
109.05
3.4
^

111.28

_

o %

2-74

!•«

9.3

9.3

9.9

11.5

3-74

9*3

9.7

10.3

10.5

11.5

11.4

4- 7 4

9.7

10*2

10.7

1 .1
2

12*4

1-73

9.9

10.3

11.0 11*9
----- 1
1
10.3 [ l u o ] 11.4

11.7

11 .t

114.34

2-75

121.04
124.21

10.3 1
5.3

9. 4

3-75

117.52

*

9.2

___

X

7.3

125.96
^

4-75

.............. ............-

-

128.20
130.17

\

4.1

131*47

1-74

3.5

3.7

3.3

3.7

3.7

3.3

7.3

4.3

5.3

5.9

5.2

2-74

•.2

3.3

••4

3.3

3.3

7.9

7.4

4.5

5.7

5.4

5.1

4.5

3-74

3.0

3.0

3.1

7.9

7.9

7.5

7.0

4.2

5.5

5.4

5.0

4.5

4.3

4-74

7.3

7.9

7.9

7.7

7.7

7.3

6.3

4.1

5.5

5.4

5.1

4.7

5.0

5.0

5.4

1-77

7.4

7.7

7.7

7.5

7.5

7.1

4.7

4.0

5.5

5.4

5.1

4.9

5.1

5.1

5.4

5.3

2-77

7.4

7.4

7.7

7.5

7.4

7.1

4.7

4.1

5.4

5.4

5.4

5.2

5.5

5.4

5.9

4.2

5.2

X

4.9

.5.6%

v
v

4.4

133*06
134*56

V

136.35
138*13
7.1

140*52
142*19

3-77

7.5

7.5

7.5

7.3

7.3

4.9

4.4

4.0

5.4

5.5

5.3

5.4

5.5

5.7

5.3

4.0

4.3 V

4-77

7.4

7.4

7.4

7.3

7.2

4.9

4.5

4.0

5.6

5.4

5.4

5.3

5.5

5.4

5.3

5.9

4.0

5.5

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

1-75

2-75

1-7»

4-75

1-74

2-74

3-7A

4-74

1-77

2-77

4.2 )

144*3*P

3 -77

INITIAL QUARTER_____
0 ~ 0ftFLIMINARY
----------- ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- ------------ »EPAttEP I V FEDERAL 8 K H V P




JANUARY 19, 1970

14

RAMt OF S T - LOUIS ---

PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT OOLLARS
___________ COMPOUNDED AMMUAL R
ATES Of CHANCE____________

B IL L IO N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

TERMINAL
QUARTE*
2 -7 3

2 -7 3

8 .0
7 .a

8 .2

1 -7 4

2 -7 4

3 -7 4

4 -7 4

1 -7 5

2 -7 5

3 -7 5

4 -7 5

1 -7 6

2 -7 6

3 -7 6

4 -7 6

2 -7 7

3 -7 7
.

......

8 3 3 .1

7 .5

8 5 4 .0

1 -7 4

8 .5

8 .9

8 .9

1 0 .4

9 -2

9 .8

1 0 .1

1 1 .4

1 2 .3

3 -7 4

1 0 .1

10. 6

1 1 .1

1 2 .3

1 3 .3

*“ 74

9 .1

9 .4

9 .5

1 0 .0

9 .8

8 7 9 .2
9 0 9 .0

1 4 .3

9 1 6 .2

3 .2

1 -7 5

9 .1

9 .3

9 .4

9 .8

9 .7

8 .8

6 .1

9 .2

2 -7 5

9 .5

9 .8

9 .9

1 0 .4

1 0 .4

9 .9

8 .4

1 1 .1

1 3 .2

3 -7 5

9 .8

1 0 .1

1 0 .3

1 0 .7

1 0 .7

1 0 .4

9 .5

1 1 .6

1 2 .9

1 2 .7

4 -7 5

1 0 .0

1 0 .3

1 0 .5

1 0 .9

1 0 .9

1 0 .7

1 0 .0

1 1 .8

1 2 .7

1 2 .4

1 2 .2

1 -7 6

1 0 .3

1 0 .6

1 0 .7

1 1 .1

1 1 .2

1 1 .0

1 0 .5

1 2 .0

1 2 .8

1 2 .6

1 2 .6

1 3 .1

2 -7 6

10 .2

1 0 .4

1 0 .6

1 0 .9

1 0 .9

1 0 .8

1 0 .3

1 1 .5

1 2 .0

1 1 .7

1 1 .3

1 0 .9

8 .8

3 -7 6

1 0 .1

1 0 .3

1 0 .4

1 0 -7

1 0 .7

1 0 .6

1 0 .1

1 1 .1

1 1 .5

1 1 .1

1 0 .8

1 0 .3

8 .9

9 3 6 .5
9 6 5 .9
9 9 5 .1
1 .0 2 4 .1
1 .0 5 6 .0
1 .0 7 8 .5
1 * 1 0 2 .2

9 .1

1 0 .6

1 0 .7

1 1 .0

1 1 .0

1 0 .9

1 0 .5

1 1 .5

1 1 .8

1 1 .6

1 1 .4

1 1 .2

1 0 .6

1 1 .5

1 4 .0

1 0 .5

1 0 .7

1 0 .8

1 1 .1

1 1 .1

1 1 .0

1 0 .7

1 1 .6

1 1 .9

1 1 .7

1 1 .6

1 1 .4

1 1 .0

1 1 .8

1 3 .1

1 2 .3

2 -7 7

1 0 .3

1 0 .5

1 0 .6

1 0 .8

1 0 .9

1 0 .7

1 0 .4

1 1 .2

1 1 .4

1 1 .2

1 1 .0

1 0 .8

1 0 .3

1 0 .7

1 1 .3

9 .9

3 -7 7

10 .2

1 0 .4

1 0 .5

1 0 .7

1 0 .7

1 0 .6

1 0 .3

1 0 .9

1 1 .1

1 0 .9

1 0 .7

10 .5

1 0 .0

1 0 .3

1 0 .6

AU .-3

1.0.3

lt i.fr

IG .«

1 3 .S

1 -7 3

2 -7 3

3 -7 3

4 -7 3

1 -7 6

IC .^ r
2 -7 4

3 -7 4

IC .7
4 -7 4

1 -7 5

2 -7 5

3 -7 5

4 -7 5

1 -7 6

9 .5
^ 4 -»
V

1 Q .4
2 -7 6

3 -7 6

»

1 0 .4

1 -7 7

!

4 -7 6

4—“ i
f

fi 0 1 * 0
exb.z

______

2 -7 4

-

1 -7 7

8 .9

4 -7 3

4 -7 3

7 .2

3 -7 3

3 -7 3

4 —76

4
O

1 -7 3

1 .1 7 2 .4
7 .6
ft-1

«

*
•

1 -7 7

1 .1 9 4 .0
8 .6

1 .2 1 8 .9

,A ,

^ ^

2 -7 7

.

3 -7 7

INITIAL QUARTER
P- PRELIMINARY
PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CONSTANT 1972 DOLLARS
_____________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE_______________
QUARTER

1-73

2-73

3-73

2-73

0*7
-0.3

-0.2

2-74

3-74

4-74

1.9

4-73

1-74

-0.5

3-73

4-73

BILLIONS OF
INITIAL QUARTER_______________________________________________________ DOLLARS__
ANNUA L RATES
1-75 2-75 3-75 4-75 1-76 2-76 3-76 4-76 1-77 2-77 3-77

-2.3

766.8
770.4
765.9

-0.9

-2.3

-2.2

-0.6

-0.7

-1.5

-l.l

0.1

3-74

-O.i

-0.0

-0.5

0.1

la

2.6

4-74

-1*1

-1.2

-’
.8

-1.7

-1.5

-2.3

-7.0

1-75

-0.7

-0.7

-1.2

-0.9

—0.6

-O.B

-2.5

2-75

0.2

0.2

0.4

0.9

1.1

0.7

4.7

i.3

3-75

0.6

O.B

1.1

1.6

1.9

l.B

4.9

6.3

©

-0.8

••

1-74
2-74

0.6

761.6
761.7
766.6
752.9
2.1

756.9
770.4
5.2

780.2

4-75

1.2

lf3

1.3

1.7

2.3

2.7

2.7

5*3

6.4

5.9

6.6

1-76

1.7

1.9

1.9

2.4

3.0

3.4

3.5

5.7

6.6

6.4

7.0

7.5

1.9

2.1

2.1

2.5

3.1

3.5

3.6

5.5

6.1

5.9

6.1

5.B

4.2

2.2

2.6

-3.1

3.5

3.6

5.2

5.7

5.4

5.4

5.1

3.9

3.6

2.7

3.1

3.6

4.0

4.1

5.6

6.1

5.9

6.1

5.9

5.4

6.0

8.6

2.9

3.3

3,7

♦U

4.2

5.6

6.0

5.8

5.9

5.8

5.4

5.7

6.6

5.1

.3*2

3.6

-3*9

4.0

5.2

5.5

5.3

5.»

5.1

4.6

4.7

5.1

3.4

l.B

3.3

3 .8

3.9

5.0

5.0

5.0

4.8

4.3

4.4

4.6

3.3

2.4

3.0

2-76
..
4-76

? tO

2*4

1-77

2.6

2-77

_2t?

2*6

792.8
807.2
815.5
822.7
839.8
850.4

2.7

2tt

2.7

2.8

-Itß

3 ,0

3.1

3.4

3*8

4.1

4*2

5 .2

_5.5

5 .3

5 .3

5 .1

4 .8

4 .9

5 .2

4 .4

4 .1

5 .3

7 .6

1 -7 3

2 -7 3

3 -7 3

4 -7 3

1 -7 4

2 -7 4

3 -7 4

4 -7 4

1 -7 5

2 -7 5

3 -7 5

4-75

1 -7 6

2—76

3 -7 6

4 -7 6

1 -7 7

2 -7 7

3 -7 7

3 -7 7 _ ._

N 4— 77

854.1
860.4
876 .4 P

I N I T I A L QUARTER

P- PRELIMINARY




PREPAREO BY FEO ERAL R ESERV E B A * OF S T . LO U IS
JANUARY 19» 197«

15

GROSS PRIVATE DONEST1C INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS
__________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE___________
TERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL QUARTER
1-73

2-71

2-73

3-73

4- 73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

1-75

2-75

3-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

1-76

4-76

1-77

2-77

3-77

BILLIONS OF
OOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

14.0

210.0

3-7?

9.1

3.7

V*7?

U.4

12.•

22.6

1-74

_ 3.2

-0.4

- 2.4 -22.4

2-74

Jf?

0.9

3-74

0.0

-2.7

-4.2 -11.0

—6.0 -15.7

4-74

-0.1

-2.3

- 3.5

— 4.2

1-75

- 0 4 — 11.6 -14.1 -20.0 -19*4 -26.2 -30.9 -52.0

2-75

-0.0 -11.4 -13.4 -10.2 -17.4 -22.1 -24.2 -33.0

1-75

-1.0

-2.6

-3.4

4-75

-1.0

-2.5

220.0

-0.1

231.5

-9.0

-9.1

217.3
4.9

219.9

-0.5

210.7
-0.6

210.4
175.1
-0.6

171.2
205.4

-6.6

-3.7

-5.1

-2.5

-3.2

37.6 107.2

-3.2

-6.0

— 3.4

-4.7

-2.3

-2.7

23.2

43.0

-14

?*9

—0.0

1*2

2.9

6.4

7.9

32.1

49.4

264

61.0

2.2

**4

5.4

0.0

10.5

304

62.0

26.1

42.5

24.7

1-76

3*2

¿*2

...

2-76

.>±T

3.9

... 3*9

204.7
231.3

1-76

5.5

4.9

4.9

3.5

6.5

6.7

9.9

11.6

20.2

37.2

23.0

11.5

20.9

W 6

3.9

3.2

3.2

1.7

4.2

4.1

6.6

7.6

20.7

26.4

14.5

10.9

7.0

2444
17.2

254.3

—0.0 -16.1

243.4

1-77

6.6

6.1

6.2

5.1

7.7

0.0

10.7

12.1

24.6

30.2

20.5

25.5

17.5

15.2

14.2

55.5

2-77

0.2

7.B

0.1

7.2

9.9

10.1

13.0

14.5

26.1

31.2

23.0

27.6

21.5

20.7

214

464

30*6

3-77

0.5

0.1

0.4

7.5

10.0

10.4

12.9

14.1

24.6

29.0

21.6

25.1

19.9

10.9

19.4

14.1

24.0

12.3

__ft*3

1*9

0.2

7.3

9.7

10.0

12.3

U.4

22.7

26.3

194

22.5

17.6

16.4

16.1

26tl

174

8.4

4.6

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

1-75

2-75

3-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

1-76

4-76

1— 77

2-77

3-77

2-77

0ILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES
3-77

271.8
294.9
303.6
30 7.OP

INITIAL QUARTER
P- PRELIMINARY
GROSS PRIVATE OONESTIC INVESTMENT IN CONSTANT 1972 OOLLARS
OF
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES I CHANGE
TERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL QUARTER
1-73

2-73
3-73

0.3

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

1-75

2-75

3-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

1-76

4-76

1-77

207.4

5 4

204.9

-4.7

4-73

4.7

4.3

14.2

211.0

1-74

-3.5

-6.4

-7.2 -24.5

197.4

*-74

—5 4

-0.5

-9.7 -19.7 -14.5

109.0

3-74

-9.3 -12.1 -13.0 -21.5 —20.0 -25.0

1764

4-74

-9.9 -12.2 -13.6 -19.5 -17.7 -19.2 -12.9

1704
133.0

1-75

-19.4 -22.4 - 25.0 -11.1 - 3 2 4 -17.0 -43.3 -61.1

2-75

— 10 .0 -20.6 -22.6 -27.4 —20.0 -11.0 -32.9 -41.1

-6.2

3-75

-11.0 -12.6 -13.6 -16.9 — 15.6 -15.0 -13.3 - 1 1 4

32.5

07.1

4-75

- 1 0 4 -12.3 -13.2 -16.1 - 1 4 4 -14.0 - 1 2 4 -12.5

164

29.9

-9.0

149.2
61.1

160.1

130.9
153.1

1-76

-6.3

-7.4

-7.6

-9.0

-7.7

-6.7

-3.2

—1.2

26.4

39.6

20.6

2-76

-4.7

-5.5

-5.5

-7.3

-5.2

-3.9

-0.5

1.0

24.7

33.0

19.7

17.9

10.0

-5.9

-34

-2.5

0.0

2.9

22.1

20.7

17.2

27.9

11.9

-0.4

14.7

10.7

0.1

11.4

0.9
11.1

0.0

0.1

60*2.

1-76

-3.7

-4.4

-4.3

4-76

-4.9

-5.7

— 5.7

-7.2

—5 3

-4.5

-1.9

1-77

-2.3

-2.0

-2.6

-1.0

-14

-0.6

2.2

4.1

10.5

22.5

14.1

19.6

175.2
179.4

9.9

169.2

-6.7 -20.9

106.7
197*2

2-n

-0.9

-1.3

-1.0

-2.0

-04

1.1

4.1

6.0

19.1

22.7

15.6

20.4

11.6

12.6

11.4

15.0

24.5

1-77

-0 .4

—0.0

-0.5

-1.4

0.5

1.7

4.4

6.1

17.9

20.9

14.5

10.5

124

11.5

11*9

25.6

15.7

7.5

4-77

-0.7

-1.1

—0*0

-1.7

04

1.2

3.5

5.0

15.5

17.9

12.0

15.1

9.7

04

0.0

164

7.9

0.4

-6.2

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

1-75

2-75

1-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

1-76

4-76

1-77

2-77

3-77

200.0
1974P

INITIAL Q U A R T »
P - PRELIMINARY




PRfPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE RANK OF ST. LOUIS
JANUARY 19» W 1 *

16

GOVERNMENT PURCHASES Of GOOOS AND SER V IC ES IN CURRENT DOLLARS
_________________ COMPOUNOEO ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE____________________

TERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL QUARTER
1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

1-75

2-75

3-75

4-75

1— 76

; -76
2

3-76

4-76

1 -77

3 -77

2-77

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

-1.0

265.1

3-73

2.7

269.3

4-73

6.1

9.8

13.2

1-74

8.1

11.3

13.8

14.4

2-74

^ 9.5

12.3

14.4

14.9

2-73

6.5

277.8
287.3
297.8

15.4

308.0

3-74

10.3

12.7

14.4

14.8

14.9

14.4

4-74

10.7

12.8

14.1

14.3

14.3

13.7

12.9

1-75

10.7

12.5

13.6

13.7

13.5

12.8

12.0

317.5
11.1

326.0
335.2

2-75

10.9

12.4

13.3

13.3

13.1

12.6

11.9

11.5

11.8

3-75

io .a

12.2

12.9

12.9

12.6

12.1

11.5

11.1

11.0

10.3

4-75

10 .6

11.9

12.5

12.4

12.1

11.6

11.0

10.6

10.4

9.6

9.0

1—74

10.0

11.0

11.5

11.3

10.9

10.3

9.6

9.0

8.5

7.4

6.0

343.5
351.0
353.6

3.0

358.9

2-76

9.7

10.6

11.0

10.8

10.4

9.8

9.1

8.5

8.0

7.1

6.0

4.6

6.1

3-76

9.3

10.2

10.5

10.2

9.8

9.2

8.6

8.0

7.4

6.6

5.7

4.6

5.4

4.6

4-76

9.2

10.0

10.3

10.0

9.6

9.1

8.5

8.0

7.5

6.8

6*1

5.4

6.2

6.3

7.9

1-77

9.0

9.7

9.9

9.7

9.3

8.7

8.2

7.7

7.2

6.6

6.0

5.4

6.0

6.0

6.7

2-77

9.5

10.2

10.4

10.2

9.9

9.5

9.0

8.6

8.4

7.9

7.6

7.4

8.3

8*8

10*3

11.4

17.8

3-77

9.6

10.2

10.5

10.3

10.0

9.6

9.2

8.9

8.6

8.3

8.0

7.9

8.7

9.3

10.4

11.3

14.4

11.0

4-77

9.8

10.4

10.6

10*3

10.2

9.8

9.5

9.2

9.0

8.8

8.6

8.6

9.4

9.9

11.0

11.8

14.0

12.1

13.3

1-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4 -7 4

1-75

; -75
2

J—75
;

4-75

1
: -76

2-76

3-76

4-76

1-77

2-77

3-7 7

363.0
370.0
374.9

5.4

390.6
400*9
413.6P

INITIAL QUARTER
P- PRELIMINARY
GOVERNMENT PURCHASES OF GOODS AMO SERVICES IN CONSTANT 1972 DOLLARS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE
TERMINAL
QUARTER

INITIAL QUARTER
1-73

2-73

2-73

3-73

4-73

1-74

2-74

3-74

4 -7 4

1-75

2-75

3-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

3-76

4-76

2-77

3- 77

251*2

-6.1

251*8

3-73

-2.6

1.0

4-73

-1.7

0.6

0.3

1-74

0.4

2.7

3.5

6.8

252.0
256.2

2-7*

0.8

2.5

3.1

4.5

2.2

3—74

0.9

2.3

2.7

3.5

1.8

1.4

4-74

0*7

1.9

2.1

2.5

1*1

0.5

-0.3

1-75

0.8

1.9

2.0

2.3

1.2

0.9

0.7

1.7

2-75

1.2

2.2

2.4

2.7

1.9

1.8

2.0

3.1

4.5

3-75 .. 1*5
.

257.6

2 .4

2.5

2.9

2.2

2.2

2.4

3.4

4.2

3.9
0.9

258.5
258.3
259.4
262.3
2 6 4 .8

4-75

1 .4

2.2

2.4

2.6

2*0

2.0

2.1

2*7

3.1

2.4

1-76

1*1

it*

11
*9

2*1

1*5

1*4

1 .4

1.7

1.7

0.8

-0.7

-2.2

2-74

l.l

1.7

1 .8

1.9

1.4

1.3

1.3

1.6

1.5

0*8

-0.2

-0.8

0.8

3-76

.1*9

1 .6

ktl.

1.3

1*2

1.2 .

1*4

1.3

0.7

-0.1

-0.4

0.5

4-76

l.Q

_1*5

1.5

1.6

1.2

1*1

1.0

1.2

1.1

0.6

-0.1

-0.3

0.4

0.2

0*0

p*e

___ 1*3

.i*3

1.4

A*9

0*8

0*7

0.9

0.7

0.2

—0.4

-0.6

-0.2

-0.6

-1.0

-2.0

1.3

1.8

1.9

2.0

1.4

1.6

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.5

1.1

1.2

1.8

2.1

2.7

4.1

1*6 ___2*1

2*1

2.3 — 1.9

. .1-JL
2-77
.

1-77

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
a N n u AL JUfts

*~TL4-77

...

2*3 _^2*4

_1 * 7

1-73

2-73

3— 73

4-73

265.4
263.9
2 6 4 .4

0.3

2 6 4 .6
2 6 4 .6
2 6 3 .3

10.6

270.0

1.9

2.0

2.2

2.2

2.0

1.7

1.8

2.5

2.9

3.6

4.8

8.3

6.1

_2*1

2 .1

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.2

2.0

2.1

2.8

3.1

3.7

4.6

6.9

5.1

4.2

1-74

2-74

3-74

4-74

1-75

2-75

3-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

3 -76

4-76

1-77

2-77

3-77

274.0
2 7 6 .6 Î

INITIAL QUARTER
P- PRELIMINARY




PREPARED BY FED ERA L R ESER V E BANK OF S T * LO U IS
JANUARY 19» 1978

17

D ISPO SA BLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS
COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OP CHANCE

a iL L l6 N 5 ~ W "

QUARTER
1-71

2-71

1-73

4-71

1-76

2-76

1-76

4-74

1-75

2-75

1-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

3-76

6-76

1-77

2-77

1-7?

ANfcUAL fcAlfcS
890.9

2-71

II .7

1-71

10*6

9*1

4-71

11*1

10*8

911.4
937.7

12*1

H 4

9.6

8*9

8*5

5*1

2 -74

9* 7

9*2

9*1

7*7

10*1

969.5

1-76

10 .0

9*7

9*7

8*9

10.9

11*6

973.1
999.7

4- 7 6

9*1

9*2

9*1

8*4

9*5

9*1

6*8

1-71

8.6

8 *4

8*2

7*4

8*0

7*2

5*2

1.7

2-71

10.8

10.7

10*9

10.7

11.9

12*2

12*5

15*5

28.7

1-71

9.8

9.6

9*6

9*1

10 .0

10*0

9*6

10*6

14.2

1.1

J>«£ 10*1

6-75

1,016.2
1,025.4
1,092.2
1,095.7

9*9 _ 9.7

9*8

10*1

9*8

10*6

11*0

5*9

19*8

1-76

10*0

9*8

9*9

9*6

10*2

10*2

10*0

10*7

12*5

7.5

10.8

10*8

____ 2-76

9*8_

9*6

9*6

9*4

9.9

9.8

9*6

10*1

11.4

7.5

9.7

9.1

7*6

1,124*1
1,153.3
1,174.1

1-74

9*6

9.4

j 9*4 l

9*2

9*6

9.5

9*1 _ 9*4_ 10*6

7*1

8.9

8*1

7.1

6.7

JrrT*

9* 6

9*5

9 .5

9*2

9*6

9*6

9*6

9*7

10.6

7*8

9*2

8*8

8*1

8.6

10*2

1-77

9*6

9*5

9*5

9*1

9*7

9*6

9*4

9*7

10*5

8*1

9*1

9*0

8*6

9*0

10*2

10*1

2-77

f. t

9*7

9*8

9*6

1 0 * 0

9 * 9

9*8

1 0 .1

1 0 * 8

8 * 8

9 .9

9 .8

9 .5

1 0 * 1

1 1 * 2

1 1 * 8

1 —7 7

9 .9

9 .8

9*8

9 * 6

1 0 * 0

9 .9

9*8

1 0 * 1

10 * 8

8 .9

9 » 9

1 1 * 2

1 1 * 0

9.6

1 - 7 1

2 - 7 1

1 - 7 1

6 - 7 1

1-74

2-76

1-74

4-74

1-75

2-75

1,193*3

1-75

9 .6

1 0 .1

1 0 * 9

1 0 » ?

10 * 2 _

1 0 .6

*1.4

6->5

1-76

2-76

1-76

1,222.6

9 * 8

1,252*4
1 .2 9 2 * 5

1 1 * 6

1 ,3 2 3 .8

6-76

1 1 .7

1 0 * 0

1 2 .1

1 1 * 7

1 1 .1

1-77

2-77

1-77

1 ,3 6 5 .9 P

INITIAL QUARTER
P- PRELIMINARY
DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CONSTANT 1972 DOLLARS
__________COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OP CHANCE____________
QUARTER

BILLIONS OF

lE m A k ^ S M S If iL

1-71

2-71

3-73

4-73

1-76

2-74

1-74

4— 74

1-75

2-75

1-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

1-76

4-76

1-77

2-77

1-77

ANNUAL RATES
852.7

2-71

1*6

1—71

1*1

4-71

2*7

2*2

1*8

1-74

0*2

-0*9

- 2. 7

-7*0

2-74

-0*2

-1*1

-2*1

-4* 4

-1*7

1-74

-0*2

-0*9

-1*8

-2*9

-0*9

-0*0

4-74

-0*7

-1*6

- 2* 2

-3*1

-1*8

-1*9

-1*7

-1*0

-1*6

-2*1

-1*1

-2*1

-2.1

-3.3

1-75

858.2

2*6

862.1
846.7
843.1
843*0
835*1
-1.0

828.8
871.1

2-75

1*4

l.I

0*9

0*7

2*1

1.1

4*5

8.8

1-7*

0*7

0*1

0*1

-0*2

1*0

1*5

1*9

1*9

7*4

-5*4

4-75

1*1

©•_«_.

0*4

0*5

1*6

2*1

2*6

4*2

6*7

-0.2

5*1

1-74

1*4

1*2

1*1

1*0

2*0

2.6

3*0

4*4

6*4

1*6

5.1

5*1

2-76

1*5

1*4

1.2

1* 2

2*1

2.6

3.0

4*2

5.7

1*9

6*5

4.1

2.9

»-74

1*5

1*4

1*Z

1*2

2*0

2*5

2*8

1*8

4*9

1*8

1*7

1*2

2.1

4*9

2*1

1*9

1*6

1*0

1*1

4*9

4*7

2*6

1*8

1*5

1*1

1*1

4*0

22*0

859.1
WSWL.
881.5
887.8
890.7

1*1

6-76

1*7

1*6

1*5

Uf

2*1

2*7

3*0

1*9

1-77

1*8

1*7

1*6

1*6

2*4

2*7

3.0

1*8

2-77

2.1

2.0

2*0

2*0 _ 2*7

1*1

1.6

4*2

5*0

1*0

4*1

6*1

1*9

4.1

5*1

3-77

2.1

2*2

2*1

2*2

1*2

1.5

4*2

4*9

1*2

4*1

6*2

4*0

4*2

4*9

901*5

2*6

2*5

2*5

1-71

4-77

2-71

3-73

2*9

2*6 _ 1*2
6- 71

1-74

9 08. 4

1*1
7.1
4*9

—

5*8 _Jbt6_

1*6

1.9

4*5

5*2

1*7

4*7

4*7

4*6

4*9

5*6

5*8

6*7

2-76

1-76

4—74

1-75

2-75

1-75

4-75

1-76

2-76

1-76

4-76

1-77

4*4..
2~77

934,4 _
8.5

_ 9 53*kP

3-77

INITIAL QUARTER
P— PRELIMINARY




PREPARED BY PEOERAL RESERVE * * * * OP ST * LO UIS
JANUARY I t * 1978

18

CO«POMATE PR O FIT S AFTER TAXES *
COHPOUNOEO AHNUAL M T 6 S ÛF CHANCE
TERMINAL
QUARTER

B IL L IO N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

I N I T I A L QUARTER
4 -7 2

1 -7 3
2 -7 3

26 *4

1 -7 3

2 -7 3

3 -7 3

4 -7 3

1 -7 4

2 -7 4

3 -7 4

4 -7 4

1 -7 5

2 -7 5

3 -7 5

4 -7 5

1 -7 6

3 -7 6

2 -7 6

4 -7 6

1 -7 7

2 -7 7
66 .5

4 6 .9

6 7 .9

8*7

6 5 .4

3—73

11*2

4 -7 3

13*4

4*0

1 .8

2 0 .4

1 -7 4

13*7

6 .6

5 .9

1 7 .5

1 4 .8

2 -7 4

13*3

7 .5

7 .2

1 5 .4

1 2 .9

1 1 .2

-3 * 3 - 1 3 . 9

6 8 .5
7 0 .9

3 -7 4

10*3

14*1

1 5 .2

2 3 .9

2 5 .0

3 0 .5

4 —74

10*3

5 .9

5 .4

9 .8

7 .3

4 .9

1 -7 5

0 .3

-4 .4

—6 . 1

-4 .7

-9 .1

7 2 .8
8 1 .0

5 3 .3

7 3 .5

1 .9 - 3 2 . 2

6 0 .8

-1 4 .2 -2 1 .4 -4 3 .7 -5 3 .2
- 6 . 3 -2 0 . 5 - 1 3 . 9

6 8 .2

2 -7 5

5*0

1*1

0 .2

2 .4

-0 .3

-3 .1

3 -7 5

11*5

8*4

8 .4

1 1 .6

1 0 .4

9 .6

9 .3

0 .5

1 4 .6

7 9 .2 1 0 2 .9

11*2

••4

8 .4

1 1 .2

1 0 .1

9 .5

9 .2

2 .1

1 3 .1

5 1 .7

4 8 .5

8 .6

4 -7 5

5 8 .3

8 1 .4
8 3 .1
9 0 .4

1 -7 6

1 3 .2

10*8

1 1 .0

1 3 .8

1 3 .1

1 2 .9

1 3 .2

7 .6

1 8 .0

4 8 .7

4 5 .6

2 3 .3

4 0 .0

2 -7 6

13*2

10*9

11*1

1 3 .7

1 3 .1

1 2 .9

1 3 .1

8 .3

1 7 .1

4 0 .6

3 6 .5

1 9 .6

2 5 .5

1 2 .5

3 -7 6

12*5

10*4

1 0 .5

1 2 .9

1 2 .2

1 1 .9

1 2 .0

7 .7

1 5 .1

3 3 .7

2 9 .3

1 5 .5

1 7 .9

8 .1

9 3 .1
9 4 .0

3 .9
-1 2 .6

9 0 .9

4 -7 6

1 0 .«

••7

8 .7

1 0 .7

9 .9

9 .5

9 .3

5 .3

1 1 .2

2 5 .8

2 1 .1

9 .2

9 .4

0 .7

1 -7 7

1 1 .«

10*0

1 0 .0

1 2 .0

11*4

11*1

11*1

7 .6

13*2

2 6 .4

2 2 .4

12*6

1 3 .4

7 .5

5 .9

6 .9

3 0 .7

2 -7 7

12*9

11*2

11*3

1 3 .3

1 2 .8

1 2 .6

12*7

9 .6

1 5 .0

2 7 .1

2 3 .7

1 5 .2

1 6 .4

1 2 .1

1 2 .0

1 4 .9

3 1 .7

3 2 .6

3 -7 7

12*0

10*4

1 0 .5

12*2

1 1 .7

1 1 .4

1 1 .5

8 .5

1 3 .3

2 3 .8

2 0 .4

1 2 .8

1 3 .4

9 .5

8 .9

1 0 .2

1 9 .0

1 3 .6

-2 .7

3 -7 4

4 -7 4

1 -7 5

2 -7 5

3 -7 5

4 -7 5

1 -7 7

2 -7 7

4-77

-4 .7

9 7 .2
1 0 4 .3
1 0 3 .6

N .A .

4 -7 2

1 -7 3

2 -7 3

3 -7 3

4 -7 3

1 -7 4

2 -7 4

IN I T I A L QUARTER
* NATIONAL INCOME B A S IS

PREPARED 6V FE0ERA1. RESERVE BAM( OF ST. LOUIS
JAMUARV 1«. l t n

SOURŒS OF DATA
NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA
Source:

1929-72:
1973:
1974-76:

U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Economic
Analysis, Washington, D.C. 20230
The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States,
192§-74, A Survey of Current business Supplement.
Survey of Current Business, July 1976.
Survey of Current Business', July 1977.

The Survey is available from most district offices of the
Department of Commerce or from the Superintendent of Documents, U.S.
Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402.




19

INVENTORIES

COMPARED WI TH MONTHLY S A L E S *

MANUFACTURING AND TRADE
1

72

1

68

1 .64

64

1 .60

60

1 .56

56
52

1

48

1

44

1

40
36

1

1963

1964 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 1972 1973 1974 1975 1976 1977

# RAT I OS BASED ON SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA.
SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BUSINESS RECESSIONS.

SOURCE: U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE

LATEST DATA PLOTTED: NOVEMBER PRELIMINARY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

20


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102