Full text of National Economic Trends : January 1973
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nflnonflL e c o n o m i ctrei i ds PREPARED MONTH ENDING: BY FEDERAL December 31, 1972 RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS RELEASED: January 24, 1973 Total spending advanced at an 11.4 percent annual rate from the third to the fourth quarter of 1972, and real product rose at an 8.4 percent rate. The surge in total spending and real product in the fourth quarter of 1972 served to maintain the strong pace of economic activity which was recorded in the first half of the year. For the year ending fourth quarter 1972, real product increased 7.7 percent, rising at a 7.9 percent rate in the first half of the year and at a 7.4 percent rate in the second half. By way of comparison, real product rose 5.1 percent in the year ending fourth quarter 1971, and at a trend rate of 3.7 percent from 1957 to 1972. With the exception of net exports, major components of total spending (on an average-of-year basis) increased more rapidly from 1971 to 1972 than from 1970 to 1971. Personal consumption expenditures accelerated from a 7.8 percent increase in 1971 to 8.5 percent in 1972. The rate of increase of gross private domestic investment rose from 10.9 to 18.6 percent, and the rate of advance of government purchases rose from 6.3 percent to 9.5 percent. Net exports went from a surplus of $0.7 billion to a deficit of $4.1 billion in 1972. Industrial production rose at a 10.7 percent annual rate during the last six months of 1972, compared to a 10 percent rate in the first six months of the year. For the year ending December 1972, industrial production advanced 10.4 percent, considerably more rapid than the 3.1 percent increase in the previous year. Total civilian employment rose 3.4 percent from December 1971 to December 1972, and the unemployment rate fell from 6 percent in December 1971 to 5.2 percent in December 1972. A rapid 23.6 percent annual rate of increase in whole sale prices of agricultural commodities in the second half of 1972 influenced the recent acceleration in the consumer price index. Consumer prices, which include farm produce and food products, accelerated to a 3.9 percent annual rate of increase in the last six months of 1972 from a 2.9 percent advance in the year ending June 1972. The rate of increase of wholesale industrial commodities, however, slowed to a 2.6 percent rate in the last six months of 1972, compared to a 3.5 percent increase in the preceding year. 2 TOTAL C I V I L I A N EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L MONTH OF PERSONS 5-71 6-71 7-71 8-71 9-71 10-71 U -71 12-71 1-72 2-72 5-71 6-71 7-71 8-71 9-71 10-71 11-71 12-71 1-72 2-72 IN IT IA L 3-72 4-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 3-72 4-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 MONTH PREPARED 8Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. JANUARY 5 , 1973 LOUIS PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE IN IT IA L 5-71 - 7-71 6-71 7-71 6-71 9-71 10-71 11-71 12-71 1-72 2-72 THOUSANDS OF PERSONS MONTH 3-72 4-72 S>72 6-72 7-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 1.2 70,574 -0 .9 5-71 6-71 70,532 -0 .7 7-71 8-71 9-71 10-71 11-71 12-71 1-72 2-72 IN IT IA L 3-72 4-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 S-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 MONTH P - PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . JANUARY 5 , 1973 LO UIS 3 EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE MILLIONS OF RATIO PERSONS MILLIONS SEASON ALL Y ADJUSTED SOURCE« PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIOOS OF SCALE PERSONS U. S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« DECEMBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 4 I N O U M R I A l PRODUCTION COMPOUNDS ANNUAL PATCS Or f.HANGf TF9*INAL MliH rSt 6-71 INITIAL MONTH * - 1 6-71 57 7-71 8-71 9-71 10-71 11-71 12-71 1967 - 100 1-72 2-72 3-72 4-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 0.0 107.4 7-71 - i.s -7.5 106.7 9-71 - > 5 -0.6 -11.7 *. 105.6 9-71 -o.n -1 .i 107.1 10-71 -l.i -1.7 0.0 0.0 11-71 *.,1 1 8 . 4 V 0.4 7.0 106.8 2.0 7.0 1.7 107.4 3.2 7.3 3.8 7.5 a > \ 7.3 7.5 l?-7l 1-7? 1.1 1.3 1•R 2.1 3.8 7.2 4.5 ?-7? 3.2 3.7 5.4 f. t5 6.6 3-7? 4.3 4.7 6.4 9.3 4-7 2 5.5 6.1 7.7 10.4 9.3 11.6 12.5 5-7? 5.4 5.9 7.4 9.7 6-7? 5.1 5.6 6.9 8.9 8.7 10.5 11.1 11.7 12.9 7.9 9.4 9.8 10.0 10.7 7-7?. 5.? 5.6 8.6 7.7 9.0 8-7? 5.6 6.0 6.7 7.2 <1-7? 10-7? 6.0 6.4 7.5 8.9 9.1 8.1 8.4 9.3 9.5 6.4 6.8 7.9 9.4 8.8 9.8 10.1 U-72 6.7 7.1 «.1 9.6 9.0 10.0 10.2 l?-72 6.9 7.3 8.2 9.6 9.0 10.0 10.2 S-71 108.1 6,<!\ 108.7 9.3 10.0 11.0 .iV^Ns. 7.8 10.? 11.0 12.0 14.6 13.6 16.0 110.0 +9.6% 16.3 16> V 112.8 12.2 11.3 9.6 8.2 3.2 Z.lV 113.4 8.7 4.0 3.8 113.9 6.0 6.5 113.2 9.2 9.5 9.8 9.7 10.1 9.3 7.5 8.4 9.8 10.0 10.4 9.7 9.0 7.2 10.7 10.1 10.4 10.8 10.3 9.6 9.9 8.1 8.7 10.4 10.7 10.2 9.8 8.8 9.4 10.3 111.2 V 8.8 12.2^ 7.9 9.9 12.2 12.l" 8.9 10.7 12.5 12.6 13.1 9.4 10.9 12.3 12.4 12.5 11.9 9.4 10.7 11.8 11.6 11.5 10.7 115.0 1 1 6 .1 117. 3 118.VP 9.5) 1 U9.*P_ 6-71 "l-TT "£-71 s~n 16-71 Tr-rrT2F7I"'T-72~ "2-7F "4-77 £-72 S ^ T T T - I T j = r r - 4-72 IIPTTTi-i r ~ INITIAL MONTH T&-"P'S FCT* fN A W jT cm *m T v m m t tr * zm T JANUARY 15, 19 73 w m K m w ..s r ; r m r 5 INDUSTRIAL RATIO PRODUCTION SCALE 1967 = 100 RATIO S E A S O N A L L Y AD J U S T E D P E R C E N T A G E S ARE ANNUAL RATE S OF CHAN GE FOR P E RI OO S LATEST DATA PLOTTED; SCALE 1967 = 100 INDICATED. DE C E M B E R P R E L I M I N A R Y PR EP AR ED BY FEDERAL R E SE RV E BANK OF ST. LOUIS 6 P F T Alt SAt ec C QMPPUNDF f ANNUAL PATFS OF f.HAKOF ) TFRM1NAL_________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH___________________________________________________________ _____ M I L L I O N S 0 F MONTH DOLLARS 5-71 6-71 7- 7 1 9-71 10-71 1 1-71 12-71 8-71 1-7? 4-7? 5-7? 6-7? 7-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 2- 12 3-72 6-71 12.3 7-71 3 .4 -4 .8 9-71 14.5 15.6 40.4 9-71 16.2 17.5 30.6 10 - 7 1 10. 8 10.4 16.0 5 .5 -8 .4 11 - 7 1 12.8 12.8 17.8 11.0 6.2 12- 71 7 .2 6.4 8.8 2.1 -3 .6 -1 .2 “ 20.6 1-7? 6.3 5 .4 7.2 1.6 -2 .8 -0 .9 -11.1 2 - 72 7.4 6.8 8.6 4.0 0.9 3.3 -2 .6 8.0 17.0 3-7? 10.7 10.5 12.5 9.0 7. 1 10.5 7.6 19.0 30.1 4-7? °.l 8.8 10.5 7 .? 5.3 7 .8 4.9 12.5 17.2 17.3 -5 .0 5-7? 10.9 10.7 12.4 9.7 8.3 10.9 9.0 16.1 20.7 21.9 11.9 31.8 6-7? 9.1 8.9 10.? 7 .5 6.1 8.1 6. 1 11.3 13.8 13.1 4.1 9.0 7-7? 9 .7 9.6 10.8 8.5 7.3 9.? 7.5 1? . 3 14.6 14. 1 7.5 12.0 3.3 18.3 9-7 2 10.5 10.4 11.7 9.6 8.5 10.4 9. 1 13.5 15.6 15.4 10.3 14.5 9.? 20.2 ? 7. l 9-7 ? 0.4 9.2 10.2 8.2 7.2 8. 7 7.4 11.0 12.5 11.9 7.2 9.9 5.0 10.4 6.7 -6 .8 10-7? 11.5 11.5 I ?. 7 10.0 10.1 11.8 10.9 14.6 16.4 16*4 12.8 16.1 13.2 19.8 ?0 . 3 19.4 5 2 .9 I 1-7? 10.3 10.? 11.2 9.5 8.7 10.2 9.1 12.4 13.7 13.4 9.9 12.3 9.3 13.6 12.4 9 .4 18.5 -8 .2 12 - 7 ? 10.0 10.8 9. 1 8.4 9.7 8.7 11.6 12.8 12.3 9 .2 11.1 8.5 11.9 10.6 7 .9 13 . 3 -2 .5 9-71 10-71 11-71 12-71 1-72 2-72 3-7? 4-72 5-72 6-7? 7-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 3 3,827 _____3 3 , 6 8 8 ____ 9. 8 5-71 6-71 7-71 r \ 34,655 21.4 35,219 8-71 34,964 35,574 ?3. 1 34,896 ---x , 34,886 - 0 , '\ 35,345 IN IT IA L P- f s t i m a t f p 3 6 , ?96 37,141 36,822 -9 .8 37,34? 37,969 37*746 39,106 3 8 , 828P 3 . 6 )1 3 8 , 944E 11-72 MONTH preliminary F - 36,450 44.7 _____________________________________________________ — — —.. PREPARFD JANUARY PFRSONAL ry 10 , “r eserve 1973_______ federal B A N iT d F ^ ru n ^ s ~ INCOME _________________________________________________ __________ C O M PQ U NO F D ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE__________________________________________________________ _ BILLIONS OF TERM INM_ MONTH ___________ 5-71 6-7 1 6-71 MONTH__________________________________________________________________ DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 8-72 4-7? 5-72 6-72 7-72 9 -7 2 10-72 11-72 2 - 12 "i-12 IN IT IA L 7-71 8-7! 9-71 10-71 11-71 12-71 1-7? 8 7 3 .4 3?, 0 8 6 2 .4 7-71 6.5 -1 4 . 1 8-71 7.6 -2 .9 9.7 9-71 6.9 -0 .5 7.0 4.4 1 0 -7 1 6. 1 0.5 5.9 4.0 3.6 11-71 6.2 1.7 6.0 4.8 5. 1 6.5 12-71 7.5 3 .9 H.O 7.5 8 .6 11.? 16.1 1-7? 9.1 5.1 8.6 8.4 9.5 11.5 14. 1 2-12 8.7 6.1 9.3 9 .3 10.3 12.0 1 3.9 12.8 13.6 3-72 8.5 6.2 9.0 8.9 9.7 11.0 12.1 10.8 10.? 6.9 4-7? 3.5 6.4 8.9 8.8 9.5 10.5 11.3 10 . 1 9.4 7.4 8 69 .1 872 .2 8 74 .8 8 7 9 .4 89 0 .4 8 9 8 .9 12.1 9 0 8 .5 9 1 3 .6 7 .9 91 9 .4 5-72 ■9.3 6.3 8.6 8.5 9.0 9.8 1 0.4 9.3 8. 6 7.0 7.0 6.2 6-7? 7.5 5.7 7.7 7.5 7.8 8.4 8.6 7.4 6.5 4.8 4.1 2.3 -1 .4 7-7? 7.9 6 .3 8.2 8.0 8.4 9 .0 9.3 8.3 7.7 6.6 6.5 6.0 5.9 13.8 8-72 8.0 6.5 8 .3 8.2 8.5 9.0 9.3 8.5 8.0 7.1 7. 1 6.9 7.1 11.6 9.5 9-7? 9 .1 6.7 S. 3 8.2 8..6 9 .0 9.3 8.5 8.1 7.3 7.4 7.3 7.6 10.8 9.3 9.0 10-72 9.0 7.7 °. 3 9.3 9.7 10.2 10.5 10.0 9.7 9.3 9.6 9.9 10.7 13.9 13.9 16.2 23.8 11-7? Q .3 8. 1 9. 7 9. 7 10.1 10.6 11.0 10.5 10.3 10.0 10.4 10.7 11.5 14. 3 14.4 16. 1 19.8 15.9 12-72 9.4 9.2 Q. 7 9.7 10.1 10.6 10.9 10.4 1 0. 3 10.0 10.3 10.6 11.3 13*5 13 . 5 14.5 16.4 12.8 9.9 5-71 6-71 8-71 9-71 10-71 11-71 12-71 1-72 2-12 3-72 4-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 7-71 IN IT IA L Digitized for 9 2 4 .0 92 2 .9 93 2 .9 9 4 0 .0 9 4 6 .8 9 6 3 .8 9 7 5 . 7P 9 8 3 . 4P MONTH P- preli FRASERm i n a r y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . JANUARY 19, 1973 LO UIS RE TA IL RATIO SALES SCALE BILLIONS RATIO OF D OL LARS 1964 1965 BILLIONS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1966 1967 1968 1969 1970 1971 SCALE OF OOLLARS 1972 SOURCE« U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« NOVEMBER PRELIMINARY, DECEMBER ADVANCE ESTIMATE PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS PERSONAL RATIO SCALE IN CO ME M O NT HL Y TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES RATIO SCALE SOURCEi U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARÉ ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIODS INO ICATEO. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« DECEMBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. kOUIS 8 PRODUCT an n u a l 1-63 2-60 3-68 4-68 2-68 10.1 4-6 8 9.1 7. 8 8.8 7.8 7.4 8. 5 7. 7 7.4 7.6 4-69 1-70 2-70 3-70 3-71 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 7.8 2-69 3-69 OOLLARS 7.0 1-69 2-69 cha ng e 11.7 3-68 1-69 cf QUARTER r\j « IN IT IA L IN CURRENT ÜCLLARS rates i c o mpounde d • o GROSS NATIONAL 8 5 7 .4 8.6 87 5 .2 89 0 .2 907 .0 7.5 923 .5 3-69 8 .4 7.8 7.6 7.8 7.8 8. 1 <♦-69 7.7 7.0 6.7 6.6 6 .2 5.6 1-70 7.2 6. 5 6.2 6 .0 5.6 5.0 3. 5 3 .9 2-70 7.0 6.5 6.2 6.0 5.7 5 .2 A. 3 4.9 3-70 6. 9 6.4 6 .2 6.0 5.7 5 .4 4.7 5. 3 6 .0 6. 1 6 .4 5. 9 *.6 5.4 5, 1 4. 7 A. 1 4. 3 4 .4 3. 7 1.4 | 94 1 .7 3. 1 948 .9 ^ +4 9 58 .0 5.8 9 71 .7 9 8 6 .3 0 f1 989 .7 1 -7 1 7.1 6.6 6. 5 6.4 6.2 6 .0 5.7 6.2 6.8 7.2 7.7 14.3 2-71 7. 1 6.7 6 .6 6 .5 6.4 6. 3 6.0 6. 5 7.0 7. 3 7.7 11.1 7.9 3- 7 1 7.0 6 .6 6.5 6.4 6. 3 6. 2 5.9 fc. 4 6.8 7. 0 7.2 9.2 6.7 5 .4 Vs\ + 9 ^ 9 % 1,056.9 4-71 7. 1 6. 8 6. 6 6.6 6. 5 6.4 6.2 6.6 7.0 7. 2 7.4 8.9 7 .2 6.8 8 .3 1,0 7 8 .1 1-72 7 .4 7.1 7.0 7 .0 6 .9 6.9 6.8 7.2 7.6 7. 9 8.1 9 .5 8.4 8 .5 10.1 12.0 9,2 10.5 11.7 11.4 9.2 10.1 10.8 1 0 .I .9.5 10.4 10.9 10.6 7 .9 7. 7 7. 6 7.7 8.4 7.6 8. 7 8.9 1,023.4 9.9 9.3 1 ,0 4 3 .0 V s s^ n 1 ,109.1 1,164.0 10 .1 / i i . 4 1; — ,_lz6B__ ______ l=M __ k=Aä__ LzÂ3__ 2=±3.__ 2_____ kzJLH l=2ü__ 2-?Q __ _________________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L j-jfl A -7Q__ 1=11__ 1=11__ 1=11__ h=ll_ 1=22__ 2-72 _ 1, --------- 3-72 QUARTER_____________ ; ______________________________________________ _ P - P relim inary PRE PARES BY F E DERAL RESERVE BAfus..S L i ljt JJÏU.1.&. JANUARY 1 9 , 1973 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN CONSTANT 1958 DOLLARS •COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE 8 IL L 1QMS- QF ~ IN IT IA L TFRMINAL QUARTER 1-68 2-68 9 3-68 4-68 1-69 2-69 3-69 4 - 69 1-70 2-70 3-70 4-70 1-71 2-71 3-71 4-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 7 0 5 .3 7. 5 3-6* 2-68 DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES QUARTER 4-68 4 .6 7 1 2 .3 4.0 3.2 2.4 716 .5 7 2 2 .4 1-69 4. 3 3.2 2.9 3.3 2-69 3.3 2.9 2.5 2.6 1. 9 3-69 3.5 2.7 2.4 2. 4 1.9 1.9 1.2 0.5 -0 .2 0 .4 -0. 3 -1 .0 1.9 1.3 0.9 0 .6 0. 1 1.9 1.3 1.0 0.8 0.4 4-70 1.3 0. 7 0.4 0. 1 -0. 3 -0 .4 0. 1 -0 .7 -2 . 6 -1 .1 c 1.6 -0 .3 0. 3 1.8 - 1.2 -1 . C 7 2 0 .4 -0 7 2 3 .2 7 2 6 .8 2 .0 71 8 .0 7 2-70 1 O 07. 1 .Ä. /O « V *V -2 .4 00 0. 8 1 1.2 72 5 .1 -2 .2 -f- 1.9 2.0 7 29 .2 r \ 0 2.7 1-70 u> 1 -4 O 4-69 1.4 725 .8 73 1 .9 8.0 ?.0 5.6 2. 1 2 .2 4.6 2.9 2.9 I. 0 3-71 2 .0 3.3 3 .0 5.1 4.1 4 .7 4. 1 4 .4 6.0 5. 1 6 .4 6. 1 7 8 3 .9 6 .3 3.4 3. 2 3.1 3. 2 1 - 68 4-72 2-6P 3-6,8 4-6S 3.2 3.3 3.4 3. 9 4.5 7 66 .5 6.5 5.6 4.8 75 4 .5 5.2 7.2 6.6 7.5 7.7 8.1 7 .4 8.4 T 8 1 2 .4 1-69_ _______ 2=J&_ _______ LzJSl__ ZrJA-.JLzlQ __ ft.r.ZQ_ I z l l ___ ZzJA___1=21__ h=U _ 1~U _ I =21 _ 1-.72.. _ _ _ _ _ _ __________________________________________________________________ IN I T I M . Q UA R T ER_______________________________________________________________ P - Prelim inary . PfifMfiLQ. BY F E QERAL ..RESERVE BANK QF ST. LQ.UIS. . JANUAOY 1 9 , 1973 9 D E MAN D RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS AND PRODUCTION RATIO QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES OF DOLLARS SEASON AL LY ADJUSTED TRILLIONS OF SCALE DOLLARS 1 . 2 1. 1 1.0 0.9 0. 8 0.7 0.6 0.5 lLGNP in ¿GNP SOURCE: d o lla r s . U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IN 1958 DOLLARS. current PFRCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS LATEST data PLOTTED! INDICATED. 4TH QUARTER PRELIMINARY PREPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. l OUIS 10 COMPENSATION PER MAGFROUR", TOTAL PRIVAJfc tCONOMY COMPOUNDED ANNUAL BATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL OOÀK TtR 1967 • IN IT IA L QUARTER 4 -6 7 1-68 1-68 8 .4 3 -6 8 4 -6 8 1 -6 9 2 -6 9 3 -6 9 4 -6 9 1 -7 0 2 -7 0 3 -7 0 4 -7 0 1 -71 2 -7 1 3 -71 4 -7 1 1 -7 2 100 2 -7 2 9 .3 2 -6 8 2 -6 8 7 .5 1 0 4 .4 1 0 6 .3 8 .6 8. ? P .9 8 .6 8 .4 3 .8 0 .7 1 -6 9 8 .1 7 .0 7 .9 7 .3 5 .9 2 -6 9 8 .1 7 .8 7 .9 7 .6 7 .0 8 .1 3 -6 9 7 .9 7 .7 7 .8 7 .5 7 .0 7 .6 7 .2 4 -b 9 S .2 9 .0 8 .1 8 .0 7 .8 8 .4 8 .5 9 .9 1 -7 0 8 .0 7 .9 7 .9 7 .8 7 .6 8 .3 8 .0 8 .4 6 .9 7 .8 7 .7 7 .7 7 .5 7 .3 7 .6 7 .3 7 .6 6 .5 6 .1 3 -7 0 3 .0 7 .8 7 .9 7 .6 7 .6 7 .9 7 .9 8 .1 7 .4 7 .7 9 .4 4 -7 0 7 .7 7 .6 7 .6 7 .5 7 .3 7 .5 7 .4 7 .5 6 .9 6 .9 7 .3 5 .2 1 -71 7 .9 7 .7 7 .8 7 .7 7 .5 7. 7 7 .7 7 .8 7 .4 7 .5 8 .0 7 .3 9 .4 2 -7 1 7 .7 7 .6 7 .6 7 .5 7 .4 7 .5 7 .5 7 .5 7 .1 7 .2 7 .5 6 .8 7 .7 5 .9 0 r1 3 -6 8 4 -6 8 1 0 8 .6 1 1 0 .9 1 1 2 .5 1 1 4 .7 1 1 6 .7 1 1 9 .5 1 2 1 .5 1 2 3 .3 1 2 6 .1 1 2 7 .7 1 3 0 .6 1 3 2 .5 1 3 4 .4 3 -7 1 7 .6 7 .5 7 .5 7 .4 7 .2 7 .4 7 .3 7 .3 6 .9 7 .0 7 .1 6 .6 7 .1 5 .9 5 .9 4 -7 1 7 .4 7 .3 7 .3 7 .2 7 .0 7 .1 7 .1 7 .0 6 .7 6 .7 6 .8 6 .2 6 .5 5 .6 5 .4 4 .8 1-72 7 .5 7 .4 7 .4 7 .3 7 .1 7 .3 7 .2 7 .2 6 .9 6 .9 7 .0 6 .6 6 .9 6 .3 6 .4 6 .7 8 .5 2 -7 2 7 .4 7 .3 7 .3 7 .1 7 .0 7 .1 7 .0 7 .0 6 .8 6 .7 6 .8 6 .5 6 .7 6 .1 6 .2 6 .3 7 .0 5 .6 3 -7 2 7 .2 7 .1 7. 1 7 .0 6 .9 6 .9 6 .8 6 .8 6 .5 6 .5 6 .5 6 .2 6 .3 5 .8 5 .8 5 .8 6 .1 5 .0 4 .3 4 -6 7 1-6B ¿ -6 8 3 -6 8 4— 68 1 -6 9 2 -7 0 3 -7 0 4 -7 0 1 -71 2 -7 1 3 -7 1 4 -7 1 1 -/2 2 -7 2 3 -6 9 ..................... 1 -7 0 I n it ia l 1 3 6 .0 1 3 8 .8 1 4 0 .7 1 4 2 .2 q uarter PREPARED BY FEDERAL REStRVE BANK UF 5 T . LOUIS NOVEMBER 2 7 , 1972 UU1PUT PER MAN-HUOT7“ TOTAL P R IVATE “ECONOMY COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L 4 -6 7 1 -68 2 -6 8 3 -6 8 4 -6 8 1 -6 9 2 -6 9 3 -6 9 4 -6 9 1967 - QUARTER 1 -7 0 2 -7 0 3 -7 0 4 -7 0 1 -7 1 2 -7 1 3 -7 1 4 -7 1 1 -7 2 100 2 -7 2 1 0 1 .8 1 -6 8 4 .4 2 -6 8 4 .0 3 .6 3— B 6 3 .5 3 .0 2 .4 4 -6 8 3 .0 2 .5 2 .0 1 .6 1-69 2 .3 1 .8 1 .2 0 .6 - 0 .4 2 -6 9 1 .9 1 .3 0 .7 0 .1 -0 .6 -0 .8 3 -6 9 1 .5 1 .0 0 .5 0 .0 -0 .5 -0 .6 -0 .4 4 -6 9 1 .2 0 .7 0 .3 -0 .2 -0 .6 -0 .6 -0 .6 -0 .8 E 3 -0 .8 -0 .8 -1 .0 -1 .2 0 .2 0 .5 0 .8 1 .6 4 .3 1 .7 2 .2 3 .2 5 .5 6 .7 1 0 2 .7 1 0 3 .3 1 0 3 .7 1 0 3 .6 A TCBL 1 0 3 .4 1 0 3 .3 1 0 3 .1 1 -7 0 0 .9 0 .5 0 .1 -0 .3 2 -7 0 1 .3 0 .9 0 .6 0 .3 3 -7 0 1 .7 1 .5 1 .2 1 .1 1 .0 1 .3 4 -7 0 1 .4 1 .2 C .9 0 .6 0 .7 0 .8 1 .1 1 .4 1 .9 3 .0 2 .3 -1 .9 1 -71 1 .9 1 .7 1 .5 1 .4 1 .4 1 .6 2 .0 2 .4 3 .0 4 .1 4 .0 2 .7 7 . 4 SsS ^ ' ^ * 0 ^ 1 0 7 .0 2 -7 1 1 .9 1 .7 1 .6 1 .5 1 .5 1 .7 2 .0 2 .4 2 .9 3 .7 3 .6 2 .5 4 .8 2 . 3 ^ 'SN ^ 1 0 7 .6 L .— - J . 0 .1 1 0 2 .8 1 0 3 .9 1 0 5 .6 1 0 5 .1 3 -71 2 .0 1 .8 1 .7 1 .7 1 .7 1 .9 2 .2 2 .5 3 .0 3 .7 3 .5 2 .7 4 .3 2 .8 3 . 4 S s^ 4 -7 1 2. 1 1 .9 1 .8 1 .8 1 .8 2 .0 2 .3 2 .6 3 .0 3 .6 3 .5 2 .9 4 .1 3 .0 3 .4 3 .4 1-72 2 .2 2 .1 2 .0 1 .9 2 .0 2 .2 2 .4 2 .7 3 .1 3 .7 3 .6 3 .1 4 .1 3 .3 3 .6 3 .7 1 0 8 .5 1 0 9 .4 4 .1 X 2 -7 2 2 .4 2 .3 2 .2 2 .2 2 .3 2 .5 2 .a 3 .1 3 .4 4 .0 3 .9 3 .5 4 .5 3 .9 4 .3 4 .6 5 .2 6 .3 3 -7 2 2 .5 2 .4 2 .3 2 .3 2 .4 2 .6 2 .9 3.1 3 .5 I 4 .0 I 3 .9 3 .6 4 .4 3 .9 4 .2 4 .4 4 .8 5 .1 U 0 .5 1 1 2 .2 4 .0 1 1 1 3 .3 T=T7— T=TB— 2FZTE— 3=7TB— S=T8— ^ 9 — I = t t — 3FS9— 5 ^ 3 — V=7Tr~T=TG— 3T=T3— Z=T3— F T I — 2=71— J=7T “~ = ri — T=72— 2=77 V — -------------- --------------------------------------------------------------------------------- iT rrm u uTP T T T g----------- -- -----------------------------------------Tnrm B ' FnrB T "f FP FW I,, 5FR'VS' SAKIK' o r " . LOUT T ,'Wt‘ ‘ ST " NOVEMBER 2 7 , 1972 11 PRODUCTIVITY, COMPENSATION, AND LABOR COSTS R A T I O SCALE R A T I O SCALE 1967-100 ] 964 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1965 1966 1967 1968 1967-100 1969 1970 1971 1972 SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES Of CHANOE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« 3RD QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS UNIT CKTOTT COSTS. TOTAL PRIVATE ECONOMY COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TF«M INAL IN IT IA L QUARTER 1967 • 100 QUAR Tfc^ 4 -6 7 1 -6 8 1-68 2 -6 8 3 -6 8 4 -6 8 1 -6 9 2 -6 9 3 -6 9 4 -6 9 1 -7 0 2 -7 0 3 -7 0 4 -7 0 1 -7 1 2 -7 1 3 -7 1 4 -7 1 1 -7 2 2 -7 2 4 .4 1 0 2 .5 2 -6 8 4 .2 4 .0 3 -6 8 4 .9 5 .1 6 .3 4 -6 8 5 .4 5 .8 6 .7 1 0 3 .5 1 0 5 .1 7 .0 1 0 6 .9 1 -6 9 5 .6 6 .0 6 .6 6 .8 6 .5 2 -6 9 6 .2 6 .5 7 .1 7 .4 7 .6 8 .7 3— 69 6 .3 6 .7 7 .2 7 .4 7 .6 8 .1 7 .4 4 -6 9 6 .9 7 .2 7 .8 8 .1 8 .3 8 .9 9 .0 1 0 .7 1 0 8 .6 1 1 0 .9 1 1 2 .9 1 1 5 .8 1 -7 0 7 .1 7 .4 7 .9 8 .1 8 .4 8« 8 8 .9 9 .6 8 .6 2 -7 0 6 .5 6 .7 7 .1 7 .2 7 .2 7 .4 7 .0 6 .9 5 .1 1 1 8 .2 1 .7 1 1 8 .7 3 -7 0 6 .1 6 .3 6 .6 6 .6 6 .5 6 .5 6 .1 5 .8 4 .2 2 .0 2 .4 4 -7 0 6 .2 6 .4 6 .6 6 .7 6 .6 6 .6 6 .3 6 .0 4 .9 3 .7 4 .8 7 .2 1 -71 5 .9 6 .0 6 .2 6 .1 6 .0 6 .0 5 .6 5 .3 4 .3 3 .2 3 .7 4 .4 1 1 9 .4 1 2 1 .5 1 .7 X ^ + 2 . 4 % 1 2 2 .0 1 2 3 .2 2 -7 1 5 .7 5 .8 6 .0 5.<5 5 .8 5 .8 5 .4 5 .1 4 .2 3 .4 3 .8 4 .3 2 .8 4 .0 3 -7 1 5 .5 5 .6 5 .7 5 .6 5 .5 5 .4 5 .0 4 .8 3 .9 3 .2 3 .5 3 .8 2 .6 3 .1 2 .3 4 -7 1 5 .2 5 .3 5 .3 5 .3 5 .1 5 .0 4 .6 4 .3 3 .6 2 .9 3 .1 3 .2 2 .2 2 .4 1 .6 1 .0 1 -7 2 5 .2 5 .2 5 .3 5 .2 5 .1 5 .0 4 .7 4 .4 3 .7 3 .1 3 .3 3 .5 2 .8 3 .0 2 .7 2 .9 4 .9 2 -7 2 4 .9 4 .9 4 .9 4 .8 4 .7 4 .6 4 .2 3 .9 3 .3 2 .7 2 .8 2 .9 2 .2 2 .3 1 .9 1 .7 2 .1 -0 .6 3 -7 2 4 .6 4 .6 4 .6 4 .5 4 .4 4 .2 3 .9 3 .6 3 .0 I? .- * . I 2 .5 2 .5 1 .9 1 .9 1 .5 1 .3 1 .4 -0 # 3 4 -6 7 1 -68 2 -6 3 3 -6 8 4 -6 8 1 -6 9 2 -6 9 3 -6 9 4 -6 9 1 -7 0 2 -7 0 3 -7 0 4 -7 0 " 1 -7 1 2 -7 1 3 -7 1 4 -7 1 1 -7 2 IN IT IA L 1 2 3 .9 1 2 4 .2 1 2 5 .7 1 2 5 .5 1 1 2 5 .5 2 -7 2 QUARTER P R F P M E C T BY'~FEP E ff WHtEYgirVE "g*WK" O F STi .C O C m T NOVEMBER 2 7 t 1972 Ì2 CONSUMER P R I C E COMP O U N D S D TERMINAL MONTH INDEX, ANNUAL IN IT IA L 6 -7 1 7 -7 1 8-71 9 -7 1 10-7 1 1 1-7 1 1 2-7 1 1 -72 1967 * MONTH 2 -7 2 3 -7 2 4 -7 2 5 -7 2 6 -7 2 7 -7 2 4 .0 4 .1 3 .7 4 .1 n r s .n 3 .5 3 .0 2 .9 1 .7 10-71 3 .1 2 .7 2 .6 1 .8 i., 11-71 3 .0 2 .7 2 .5 1 .9 2 .1 2 .3 12-71 3 .1 2 .8 2 .7 2 .4 2 .6 3 .0 3 .8 1 -7 2 1 .2 2 .9 2 .9 2 .6 2 .9 3 .2 3 .7 3 .6 3 .4 3 .5 3 .4 3 .7 4 .1 4 .8 5 .3 7 .0 3 -7 2 3 .3 3 .1 3 .1 2 .9 3 .1 3 .4 3 .7 3 .6 3 .7 0 .4 4 -7 2 3 .2 3 .0 3 .0 ?;e 3 .0 3 .2 3 .3 3 .2 3 .1 1 .2 5 -7 2 3 .2 3 .1 3 .1 2 .9 3 .1 3 .3 3 .5 3 .4 3 .3 2 .1 3 .0 4 .0 6 -7 2 3 .0 2 .9 2 .8 2 .7 2 .8 3 .0 3 .1 2 .9 2 .8 1 .8 2 .2 2 .3 7 -7 2 3.2 3 .1 3 .0 2 .9 3 .1 3 .2 3 .3 3 .2 3 .2 2 .4 3 .0 3 .3 2 .9 3 -7 2 3 .2 3 .1 3 .0 2 .9 3 .1 3 .2 3 .3 3 .2 3 .2 2 .5 3 .0 3 .2 2 .9 4 .1 9 -7 2 3 .3 3 .2 3 .2 3 .2 3 .3 3 .4 3 .5 3 .5 3 .5 3 .0 3 .4 3 .7 3 .6 ♦ .6 100 1 0 -7 2 1 1 -7 2 3 .6 2 -7 2 9 -7 2 3 .3 fl-7 I 8 -7 2 4 .8 7 -71 * .3 yO 6 -7 1 » 5 -7 1 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED R A T E S P c CHA N GE 1 2 1 .2 9 1 2 1 .6 2 1 2 2 .0 3 \ 1 2 2 .2 0 \ 1 2 2 .3 9 \ 1 2 2 .6 2 X 1 2 3 .0 0 1 2 3 .3 6 1 2 4 .0 6 1 2 4 .1 0 . + 3 .2 % 2 .0 1 2 4 .3 1 1 2 4 .7 2 1 2 4 .7 9 1 2 5 .31 1 2 5 .6 2 1 2 6 .2 0 1 0-7 2 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3 .2 3 .3 3 .4 3 .5 3 .5 3 .5 3 .1 3 .5 3 .7 3 .6 4 .4 4 .1 4 .7 3 .8 1 1 -7 2 3 .3 3 .3 3 .3 3 .2 3 .3 3 .4 3 .5 3 .5 3 .5 3 .1 3 .4 3 .6 3 .6 4 .2 3 .9 4 .2 3 .5 3 .3 ^ ^ 1 2 6 .9 3 1 2-7 2 3 .3 3 .2 3 .2 3 .2 3 .3 3 .4 3 .4 3 .4 3 .4 3 .0 3 .3 3 .5 3 .4 3 .9 3 .7 3 .8 3 .2 2 .9 1 2 7 .2 0 5-71 6 -7 1 7 -7 1 TFTT" 9 -7 1 1 0 -7 1 1 1-7 1 1 2 -7 1 1 -7 2 2 -7 2 Ì- 7 2 4 -7 2 5 -7 2 6 -7 2 7 -7 2 8 -7 2 9 -7 2 1 2 6 .5 9 2 .o \ 1 0-7 2 1 1 -7 2 THTTTTrTORTff PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS JANUARY 2 3 , 1973 WHOLESALE PRiCES - INDUSTRIAL COMMUUiI IE S * SEASONALLY AOJUSTfcO COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE ________ IN IT IA L MONTH t e r m in a l •ro «rn r~ 5-7 1 6 -7 1 ___________ 6 -7 1 7 -71 8 -7 1 9 -7 1 1 0-7 1 11-7 1 1 2 -7 1 1-7 ? 2 -7 2 3 -7 ? 1967 » 100 4 -7 2 5 -7 2 6 -7 2 7- 7 2 8 -7 2 9 -7 2 1 0 -7 2 1 1 -7 2 1 1 3 .9 7 4 .1 1 1 4 .6 4 7 -7 1 5 .7 7 .3 8 -7 1 6 .0 7 .0 6 .8 I ........... 9 -7 1 4 .3 4 .4 3 .0 - 0 .6 10-71 3 .0 _ 2 .7 1 .3 ^ .4 -2 .2 11-7 1 2 .7 2 .4 1 .3 - 0 .5 -0 .5 1 .3 1 1 5 .1 2 12-7 1 2 .7 2 .5 _1 .6 0 .3 0 .6 _ 2 .1 _ 2 .9 1 1 5 .3 9 1 -7 2 _ 2 .9 _ 2 .8 2 .0 1 .1 1 .5 2 .8 3 .6 4 .3 2 -7 2 3 .1 3 .0 2 .4 1 .7 2 .2 3 .3 4 .0 4 .6 3 -7 2 3 .2 3. 1 2 .5 1 .9 2 .4 3 .3 3 .8 4 .2 4 .1 3 .2 4 -7 2 3 .3 3 .3 2 .8 2 .4 _ 2 .8 _ 3 .6 _ 4 .1 4 .4 4 .5 4 .3 5 .3 5 -7 2 3 .4 __3 ,4 2 .6 3 .0 3 .7 4 .1 4 .4 4 .4 4 .3 4 .8 4 .3 6 -7 2 3 .6 3 .5 3 .2 2 .8 3 .2 3 .9 4 .3 4 .5 4 .6 _ 4 .5 4.9_ 4 .7 5 .1 7 -7 2 3 .5 3 .5 3. 1 2 .8 3 .2 3 .8 4 *1 _ 4 .3 _ 4 .3 _ 4 .1 4 .4 4 .1 3 .9 2 .8 1 1 8 .2 4 3 .9 4 .1 4 .3 4 .3 4 .2 4 .4 4 .2 4 .1 3 .7 4 .6 1 1 8 .6 8 _3 .0 1 1 5 .2 7 ^ 1 1 5 .2 1 1 1 5 .0 0 1 1 5 .8 0 4 .9 1 1 6 .2 6 1 1 6 .5 7 1 1 7 .0 7 1 1 7 .4 8 1 1 7 .9 7 8 -7 2 3 .6 3 .5 3 .2 __ 3 .0 _ 3 .3 9 -7 2 3 .5 3 .5 3 .2 2 .9 3 .2 3 .7 4. 0 4^1 4 .1 3 .9 4 .1 3 .8 3 .7 3 .2 3 .4 2 .4 3 .2 3 .2 2 .9 2 .6 2 .9 3 .3 3 .5 3 .6 3 .5 3 .3 3 .3 3 .0 2 .7 2 .1 1 .9 0 .6 -1 .1 2 .8 Jtl} 3 .5 3. L J 3 .7 3 .7 3 *5 3 .6 3 .3 3 .2 2 .8 2 .8 2 .2 2 .1 5 .5 N 3 .0 3 .3 3 .5 3 .6 3 .5 3 .4 3 .4 3 .1 _ 3_. 0 2 .6 2 .6 2 .1 2 .0 3 .6 1 .7 9 -7 1 10-7 1 1 1-7 1 1 2-7 1 6 -7 2 7 -7 2 8 -7 2 9 -7 2 1 0 -7 2 _ 1 1 -7 2 3 .3 3 .3 3 .1 1 2 -7 2 3 .3 3 .2 3 .0 5 - 71 6 -7 1 7 -7 T 1 •.Tj -".8-71 1-72* 2 -7 2 " 3 -7 ? 4 -7 2 5 -7 2 \ 1 1 8 .9 1 1 1 8 .8 0 \ 1 1 9 .3 3 1 1 1 9 .5 0 1 0 -7 2 1 1 -7 2 TN I U A L MPNTH PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS JANUARY 9» 1973 13 RATIO SCALE PRICES PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS RATIO SCALE INDICATED. LATEST OATA PLOTTED» DECEMBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 14 WHCL E- SAL E P R I C E S - A L L ____________________ C O M P O U N D E D COMMODITtFS, ANNUAL RA T ES IN IT IA L MONTH 5-71 6-71 3.6 7-71 8-71 9-71 10-71 11-71 12-71 1-72 AOJUSTED MONTH 2-72 3-72 4-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 4.9 7-71 6-71 SEASONALLY OF CH A N GE 114.00 2.3 114.22 8-71 5.4 5.7 9.2 9-71 3.1 2.5 2.6 -3.6 10-71 2.8 2.3 2.3 -0.9 1.8 11-71 2.6 2.1 2.1 -0.2 1.6 1.4 12-71 3.3 3.0 3. 1 1.7 3.5 4.3 1-72 3.7 3.5 3.7 2.6 4.3 5.1 7.0 6.7 2-7? 4.0 3.9 4.1 3.3 4.8 5.5 6.9 6.7 6.7 3-72 3.7 3.6 3.8 3 .C 4.2 4. 7 5.5 4.9 4.0 4-72 3. 7. .. 3.6 3.7 . 3.1 4.1 4.5 5.1 4.5 3.8 2.4 3.4 5-72 3.9 3.8 3.9 3.4 4.3 4.6 5.2 4.7 4.2 3.4 4.5 5.6 6-72 4.0 3.9 4.1 3.6 4.4 4.8 5.2 4.9 4.5 4.0 4.9 5.6 7-72 4. 3 4.3 4.5 4.0 4.P 5.2 5.7 5.4 5.2 4.9 5.8 6.6 7.2 8.6 8-7? _ 4.6 4.5 4.7 4.4 5.1 5.4 5.9 5.7 5.6 5.4 6.2 7.0 7.4 8.3 7.9 9-72 4.5 4.5 4.6 4.3 5.0 5.3 5.7 5.5 5.3 5.1 5.8 6.3 6.4 6.7 5.7 3.6 10-72 4.3 4.3 * .4 * 4.0 4.7 4.9 5,2 5.0 4.8 4.6 5.1 5.4 5.3 5.2 4.1 2.2 11-72 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.3 4.9 5.1 5.4 5.2 5.1 4.9 5.4 5.6 5.7 5.6 4.9 3.9 4. 1 7.4 12-72 5.3 5.3 5.5 5.3 5.9 6,2 6.6 6.5 6.5 6.5 7.0 7.5 7.8 8. 1 a.o 8.1 £.6 14.2 5-71 6-71 7-71 8-71 9-71 10-71 11-71 12-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 4-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 8-72 115.06 114.71 114.88 115.01 7.3 115.69 116.32 116.95 1.3 117.08 117.41 117-94 5.7 118.49 119.31 120.07 120.42 0.9 120.51 121.23 21.5 123.21 9-72 10-72 11-72 INITIAL MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS JANUARY. 9, 1973 WHOLESALE PRICES-FARM PRODUCTS AND PROCESSED FOODS AND FEEDSt SEAS. ADJ. _____________________COMPOUNDED ANNUAL PATES OF CHANGE________________________ INITIAL MONTH 5-/1 6-71 7-71 8— 71 9-71 10-71 11-71 12-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 _L?A I J ^ X Q Q L **- 1 ?. 5-72 6-72 7-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 4.3 7-7 -2 .1 1 14 .1 -B .l 3.2 9-7 - 1.1 - 2.8 U 3 »3 15.9 1 1 4 .7 0.0 -13.7 4.7 1 1 3 .3 -0.5 14.7 5.1 12.2 6.2 7.6 -114.6- 11-7 m 2-72 10.9 18.0 11.8 10.9 14.4 10. 12.5 12.0 14.7 13.0 .Q U fr. 6 117^6 15.3 5.2 7.1 . U 9 »Q . -4.0 6.2 5.0 4.7 7.2 6-72 6.5 2.5 1 0 .2 7.7 9.8 10.4 9.3 8 .0 1 19 *1 . 10.4 9.5 4.8 7.8 9.4 8.9 7.9 8-72 1.4 5.0 5.1 IB.I 14.9 24.4 U Q «0 9.4 8.4 11.1 14.3 15.9 21.2 18.0 9.5 8.6 10.9 13.5 14.5 1 7 .4 1 4 .0 12-72 9.2 14.7 11.4 11. 13.3 12.3 12.8 14.1 1 0.1 11.7 6.0 1.9 X Z 3 ^L . 9.5 17.6 47.0 1 2 4 .8 10.6 11.0 12.2 12.0 14.J 14.4 14.7 14.7 17.G 19.4 20.9 23.6 23.4 24.8 30.1 5-71 6-71 7-71 8 -7 1 9-71 10-71 11-71 12-71 1-72 2-72 3-72 4-72 5-72 6-72 7-72 8-72 9-72 10-72 11-72 13.9 9.6 10.5 10-72 . X Â I-Z . 83. 1 3 3 .4 INITIAL MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESfcRVE JANUARY 9» 1 97 3 BANK OF S T . LO U IS 15 GENERAL PRICE INDEX* R A T I O SCALE R A T I O SCALE 1958-100 1958-100 150 145 MO 1 35 130 1 25 120 115 1 10 105 100 »A S USED IN N A T IO N A L SOURCE I IN C O M E AC CO UN TS P E R C E N T A b E S ARE AN NUAL R A T E S OF CHANCE FOR P E R IO D S L A T F S T DA TA P L O T T E D « U .S . D E P A R T M E N T OF COMMERCE IN D IC A T E D . 4 T H Q U ARTE R P R E L IM IN A R Y PR E P A R E D BY FEO E R A L R E S E R V E S A N If OF S T . L O U IS COMPOUNDED ANNUAL 1 ATES OF CHANGE R TERMINAL 1958 « 100 IN IT IA L QUARTER m iA K T T R 1 -68 ? -6 8 *-6 8 4 -6 8 1 -6 9 2 -6 9 3 -6 9 4 -6 9 1 -7 0 2 -7 0 1 -7 0 4 -7 0 1 -71 2 -7 1 3 -7 1 4 -7 1 1 -7 2 2 -7 2 3«-7 2 1 2 1 .5 7 2 -6« H .9 3 -6 8 4. 1 4. 3 4 -6 8 3 4 .5 P4 ' s .6 1 2 2 .8 7 A tt 1 2 4 .2 6 1 -6 9 4. 3 4 .4 4 .4 4 .2 2 -6 9 4 .5 4 .7 ED 4 .9 3 -6 9 4. * 5 .0 5 .1 5 .3 4 -6 9 4. 9 5 .0 5 .2 1 -7 0 5 .1 5 .3 5 .4 2 -7 0 5 .0 5 .1 5. 3 0 1 4 .9 5 .0 4 -7 0 5 .0 1-71 5. 1 2-71 S. 1 3-71 4. 9 s .o 5 .0 5. 1 5 .2 5 .1 5 .0 4-71 4 .7 4. y 4 . rt «».a «..8 4 .7 4 .6 1.-72 4. 7 t-.h <-.8 4 .8 4 .8 4 .8 4 .6 2 -7 ? 4, 5 4. A 4 .6 4 .6 4 .6 4 .5 4 .4 3 -7 2 4. 4 4. 4 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 4 .4 4 .2 4 -7 ? 4 .3 4 .3 4 .3 4 .3 4 .3 4 .3 4 .1 1-68 .2 - 6 8 3-68 4 -6 8 1 -6 9 2 -6 9 3 -6 9 \ 1 2 9 .5 5 1 2 7 .2 4 5 .5 1 2 9 .1 4 5 .8 6 .1 5 .3 5 ,7 5 .8 5 .5 5 *6 5 .9 b il 6 .0 6 .5 5 .4 5 .6 5 .6 5 .4 5 .4 5 .1 5 .7 5 .3 5 .3 5 .1 5 .0 4 .2 4 .0 5 .2 5. ? 5 .3 5 .5 5 .5 5 .4 5 .3 4 .9 5 .2 5 .? S. 3 5 .4 5 .5 5 .5 5 .5 5 .4 *>.? S2 5 .2 k 5 .4 5 .4 5 .3 5 .3 1 3 0 .8 6 K . 1 3 2 .9 7 "'\+5.2% 6 .5 6 .2 \ 1 3 7 .8 5 5 .9 1 3 9 .6 4 1 4 1 .3 4 5 .2 5 .6 5 .1 4 .6 4 .7 4 .9 4 ,4 3 .6 2 .9 * .? ¿ .2 4 .? 3 .6 2 .9 2 .2 1 .5 4 .6 4 .3 4 .3 4 .4 3 .9 3 .5 3 .2 3 .3 5 .1 4 .3 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 3 .6 3 .1 2 .8 2 .8 3 .5 1 .8 4 .1 3 .9 3 ,8 3 .8 3 .4 3 .0 2 .7 2 .7 3 .1 2 .1 2 .4 ^ * 4 .0 3 .8 3 .7 3 .7 3 .3 2 .7 . 3 .0 2 .3 2 .6 4 -6 9 1-7Ô 2 -7 0 3 -7 0 4 -7 0 4 -7 1 1 -7 2 2 -7 2 4 .9 5 .0 1 3 4 .3 6 1 35 .71 X 1 4 2 .3 5 ^ S + 3 .0 % 1 4 2 .8 8 \ 1 4 4 .6 8 1 4 5 .3 4 1 4 6 .2 1 N IN IT IA L P 1 3 .0 1 ? • 7 1 -7 1 2 -7 1 3 -7 1 2 .7 \ 1 4 7 .2 0 3-•72 O U A RTFR - P re lim in a ry BY F É D É R A L R É S E R V É BANK J2 £ . ST. LOUIS JANUARY 1 9 , 1973 PREPARED » I N V E N T O R I ES COMPARED WI TH MONTHLY S A L E S * MANUFACTURING AND TRADE 72 68 1 . 68 64 60 56 52 48 44 40 36 1961 1962 1963 1964 1965 1966 * RAT IOS BASED ON SEASON AL LY AD JU STE D DATA. 1967 1968 SOURCE: 1969 1970 U .S .DE PA R T M E N T 1971 1972 OF CO MMERCE SHADED AREAS REPRE SEN T PERIOD S OF BUSI NESS RE CE SS IO NS AS DEFINED BY THE NATIONAL BUREAU OF EC ONOMIC RESEARCH. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: NOVEMBER PR EL IM IN AR Y PREPAR ED BY FEDERAL RESE RVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS