Full text of National Economic Trends : January 1967
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R ates of Change in m m o n R L econom ic m d ic r to r s PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MONTH ENDING: D e ce m b e r 31, 1966 RELEASED: January 20, 1967 T otal em p loym en t in c r e a s e d at about a 4 p er cent rate fr o m A u gust to D e c e m b e r , co m p a re d with 3 p er cen t in the p r e ce d in g y e a r (T able I). P a y r o ll em p loym en t a ls o in c r e a s e d fr o m A u gust to D e ce m b e r at a 4 p er cen t ra te, about the sam e as in the p rev iou s 6 m onths (C hart). P e r s o n a l in co m e , a m e a su re o f p u rch a sin g p o w e r, has continued to r is e at the 8 o r 9 p e r cent rate that has p r e v a ile d o v e r the p a st two y e a r s . R e ta il s a le s have changed little sin ce la s t w inter a fter r is in g at an unsustainable 12 per cent rate in the p re v io u s y ea r. T otal spending slow ed during 1966. D o lla r dem and fo r good s and s e r v ic e s r o s e at a 7 p er cen t annual rate fr o m the f ir s t to the fou rth q u a rter of 1966 co m p a re d with about a 9 p er cent rate o f in c r e a s e fr o m late 1964 to e a r ly 1966 (C hart). F r o m the third to the fou rth q u a rte r, the la r g e s t in c r e a s e in total dem and was fo r m ilita r y good s and b u sin ess in v e n to rie s , a p a rt of w hich was p ro b a b ly in volu n tary. R e a l output, w hich had r is e n at an unsustainable 7 p er cen t rate fr o m late 1964 to e a r ly 1966, has sin ce in c r e a s e d at a 3 .5 p er cent rate (C hart). In du strial p rod u ction has in c r e a s e d at about a 2 p er cent rate (T able I) sin ce A u gust co m p a re d with a 7 p er cent rate fr o m M a rch to A u gust and a 9 p er cent in c r e a s e in the p re v io u s tw elve m onths. Slow dow n o f r e a l e c o n o m ic a ctiv ity m ay r e fle c t b o ttle n eck s inherent in the shift o f r e s o u r c e s fr o m p rod u ction o f c iv ilia n good s to m ilita r y goods and rea d ju stm en ts w hich have o c c u r r e d as e s s e n tia lly a ll e ffic ie n t r e s o u r c e s have co m e to be em p loy ed . A s s o c ia te d with the som ew hat le s s e x c e s s iv e total dem and has been le s s upw ard p r e s s u r e on p r ic e s . G en eral p r ic e s , as m e a s u re d by the GNP p r ic e index, r o s e at a 3 p er cent rate fr o m the secon d to the fourth q u a rter co m p a re d with a 4 p er cent rate in the two p re v io u s q u a rte r s . C on su m er p r ic e s have fo llo w e d a rou gh ly s im ila r p attern . F r o m A u gu st to N ovem b er these p r ic e s r o s e at about a 3 p er cent annual rate co m p a re d with a 3. 7 p er cent rate fr o m O ctob er 1965 to A u gust 1966. W h olesa le p r ic e s have d eclin ed som ew hat sin ce A u gu st in c o n tr a st with a 4 per cent rate o f in c r e a s e fr o m O ctob er 1965 to A u gust 1966 (T able III). W h olesale in d u stria l p r ic e s have r is e n at about a 1 p e r cen t ra te. T otal bank c r e d it (loans and in v estm en ts), r e fle c tin g p r im a r ily the c o u r s e o f c o m m e r c ia l bank tim e d e p o s its , show ed little change fr o m A u gu st to D e ce m b e r c o m p a re d with a 9 p er cen t r is e in the year ending in A u gu st (T able V ). F o r m o r e d eta il on ra tes o f change fo r v a rio u s e c o n o m ic tim e s e r ie s , see this Bank*s m onthly r e le a s e ’ ’ T ria n g les o f U .S . E c o n o m ic Data. ” Industrial Production Ratio Scale Ratio Scale 1957 59=100 1957 59=100 - - Percentages are annual rates of change between months indicated. Latest data plotted: D ece m b e rp re lim in a ry Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Ratio Scale Billions of Dollars D e m a n d a n d Production 800 *___i Rates Q uarterly Totals at Annual Ratio Scale Billions of Dollars Seasonally Adjusted +7.1% 800 759.1 700 700 6 5 7 .0 Total Spending 11 600 600 ■+6.4% Real Product11 +5.0% 500 500 4th qtr. 4 th qtr. 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 4th qtr _ li___ £1400 1 ,1 *1 400 1st qtr. 1965 1966 Percentages are annual rates of change between quarters indicated. LI G N P in current dollars. [2 G N P in 1958 dollars. Latest data plotted: 4th quarter prelim inary Source: U.S. Department of Commerce Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Prices Ratio Scale 1957 59=100 - Ratio Scale 1957 59=100 - Percentages are annual rates of change between months indicated. Latest d ata plotted:Consumer-Novemberpreliminary Source: U.S. Department of Labor Wholesale-December preliminary Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Em ploym ent Ratio Scale Millions of Persons Ratio Scale Millions of Persons Seasonally Adjusted 80 80 +2 .2 % +4.0% Total 70 75.2 +7.8% 70 + 4 .5 % ^ 65.1 +5.3% 60 60 +2 .9% Payroll June'61 50 M ay'65 Jor1.66 . _ i _____ 1959 1960 1961 1962 1963 1964 Dec.’ J - ....... j L _____ilJ 5 0 1965 1966 Percentages are annual rates of change between months indicated. Latest data plotted: Decem ber prelim inary Source: U.S. Department of Labor Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis TABLE I Compounded Annual Rates of Change of Selected Business Indicators Seasonally Adjusted To December 1966 from Month Indicated Employment Total Civilian Payroll 1966 Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. July June May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. 5.9 3*6 3.8 3.4 4.7 2.9 3.3 2.8 2.2 2.4 2.9 4.7 1o 5.7 5.7 4.1 3.8 3.4 4.2 4.1 3.9 4.3 ^•5 4.5 4.8 1964 Dec. 2.9 4.7 1963 Dec. 2.8 4.4 1965 2.4 $ 8.9 Industrial Production 2/ 0.8 56 - 0.4 2.6 1.3 2.3 2.8 3.8 4.7 4.4 5.0 5.9 6.5 7-5 Personal Income 3/ 6.2 # 7A 8.0 8.5 9.1 8.6 8.7 8.3 7.7 7.9 8.1 Retail Sales - 14.9 4.3 5.2 2.4 0.0 - 0.3 6.3 2.5 - 0.9 0.5 8.0 1.5 2.2 2.7 7.3 8.4 5.6 7.7 7-9 6.6 6.9 6.5 5.7 5.2 4.5 4.0 3-8 4.1 5.9 5.7 5-4 6.7 5-3 4.7 4.5 4.4 4.4 4.4 7.8 To 1965 from Year Indicated 1961 i960 1959 1957 1955 1953 1951 2.0 1.6 1.6 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.2 3.0 2.3 2.2 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.7 5.6 5-3 5.4 Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor. 2/ Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 3/ U.S. Department of Commerce, » Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis January 18, 1967 B a n k Credit R a t io S c a l e AH Com m ercial Banks Rati(j Sca|e Percentages are annual rates of change between months indicated. Latest d ata plotted: Decem ber Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis TABLE III Compounded Annual Rates of Change of Selected Business Indicators To December 1966 from Month Indicated Prices ^ Consumer * All Items 1966 1965 Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. July June May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. - * 1.0 All Commodities 0.0 - 1.7 - 3.3 - 2.5 - 1.1 0.4 2.7 2.8 3-5 3.7 3-6 3-2 3.5 3.6 3.9 3.5 3.6 % Wholesale Prices Farm Products and Processed Foods Industrials 0.0 # 1.1 0.6 1.4 1.7 2.1 l.l 0.9 0.7 l.l 1.3 1.7 1.9 2.0 2.1 2.2 2.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 - 4.4 11.0 16.1 11.9 6.9 1.9 1.9 2.7 3.3 3.4 1.0 0.2 2.1 1964 Dec. 2.8 2.6 1.8 4.8 1963 Dec. 2.2 1.8 1.4 3.2 To 1961 i960 1959 1957 1955 1953 1951 1.3 1.3 1.3 1.4 1-7 1.4 1.4 1965 from Year Indicated 0.6 0.4 0.3 0.4 1.0 0.8 0.4 0.4 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.6 0.1 * December data not available, rates of change are to November 1966 from month indicated. Source: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis January 17, 1967 TABLE II Compounded Annual Rates of Change of Selected Business Indicators Seasonally Adjusted Change from Previous Month to Month Indicated ^ Bnployment Total Civilian Payroll 1966 1965 Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. July June May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. 2.4 $> 15.8 0.0 - 2.8 1.2 5.7 - 0.6 2.4 1.7 13.3 - 8.9 3.2 6.1 - 1.4 - 3.1 4.6 9.0 6.0 0.8 4.7 £ 6.8 4.4 Industrial Production 2/ 9.2 2.0 8.6 6.8 4.5 7.6 8.7 - i 1.5 8.7 - 2.3 6.3 5.5 9-7 11.5 1.6 10.7 15.3 13.7 20.5 10.4 Personal Income 3/ 6.2 8.6 j) 9.3 9.9 11.8 6.0 9.2 Retail Sales 3/ - 14.9 7.6 - 6.9 6.3 10.4 - 1.5 55.6 5.4 3.2 9-5 - 20.6 - 24.4 4.4 11.4 14.0 10.5 10.1 13.8 12.1 8.6 16.8 Monthly Seasonally Adjusted Data Thousands of Persons 1966 Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. 75,226 75,076 74,163 74,165 74,338 65,066 p 64,818 p 64,466 64,168 64,199 1957-59 = 100 158.7 p 158.6 p 158.8 157.7 158.0 Billions of Dollars Annual Rates 6OI.5 p 598.5 P 594.4 590.0 585.4 304.3 308.5 306.6 308.4 306.9 p- Preliminary Sources: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor. 2/ Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System. 3j U.S. Department of Commerce. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis January 18, 1967 ZABLE V Compounded Annual Bates of Change of Bank Credit All U.S. Commercial Banks Seasonally Adjusted to December 1966 from Base Period Indicated Base Period Total Total Loans Other li Securities U.S. Gov't. Nov. 5.4 £ 2.6 £ 1.3 * Oct. 2.5 3.1 0.6 2.8 Sept. - 0.1 2.7 0.9 - 11.1 Aug. - 0.4 1.8 -0- - 8.7 July 0.9 3.0 1.3 - 5.0 June 2.6 5.6 0.8 - 5^ May 3.9 7.2 1.8 - 5.8 Apr. 4.6 7.8 4.4 - 6.2 Mar. 5.3 8.6 5-2 - 5.6 Feb. 5.4 9.0 5-7 - 7.0 Jan. 5*5 9.5 6.0 t Dec. 6.1 10.0 6.3 - 6.9 Nov. 6.4 10.1 6.8 - 6.2 1964 Dec. 8.0 12.3 10.7 - 6.5 1963 Dec. 8.2 12.1 10.9 • \J) O• CO 1965 23.9 $ 1 1966 1/ Data used are averages of end of preceding and current month. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis January 17, 1967 TABLE IV Compounded Annual Rates of Change of Selected Business Indicators Change from Previous Month to Month Indicated Prices ^ Consumer All Items 1966 1965 Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. July June May Apr. Mar. Feb. Jan. Dec. Nov. N.A. $ * 1.0 4.3 3.2 5.^ 4.4 3.2 1.1 5-5 4.4 6.7 All Commodities 0.0 - 3.3 - 6.5 Wholesale Prices Farm Products and Industrials Processed Foods # 0.0 2.3 1.1 0.0 3.5 2.3 3.5 2.3 3.5 3.5 0.0 4.8 0.0 9.6 5.9 4.4 7.2 2.2 4.8 - 4.4 * - 17.2 - 0.0 0 .0 4.6 8.3 1.1 1.1 1.1 0.0 $ 25.5 2 .2 16.4 27.5 - 2.2 - 8.5 - 7^ M 26.1 14.4 28.5 8.4 Monthly Unadjusted Data 1957-59 = 100 19 6 Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. Aug. N.A. * 114.6 114.5 114.1 113.8 105.9 P 105.9 106.2 106.8 106.8 105.5 P 105.5 105.3 105.2 IO5.2 106.7 p 107.1 108.8 111.5 111.3 p- Preliminary * December data not available, Source: 1/ U.S. Department of Labor. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis January 17, 1967 TABLE VI Compounded Annual Rates of Change of Bank Credit All U.S. Commercial Banks Seasonally Adjusted Change from Previous Month to Month Indicated Total 1966 1965 Dec. Nov. 5.4 io - 0.4 Oct. Sept. - 5.1 - 1.2 Aug. July Total Loans 2.6 i> Other Securities U.S. Gov't. - 1.3 1o -0- 23.9 1o - 14.6 - 0.9 3-9 - 2.5 - 33.6 - l.l 6.2 11.6 7.8 19.9 - 6.1 1.3 11.5 - 7.4 June May 12.4 9.4 17.1 11.8 19*5 24.6 - 8.3 - 9.2 Apr. Mar. 11.4 6.0 15.0 13.4 11.1 11.2 -0- 19.1 Feb. Jan. 6.3 13.9 15.9 8.3 9.9 - 17.2 12.8 Dec. Nov. 9.9 11.4 11.4 11.5 13.0 11.6 3.5 2.1 5.3 3.2 11.1 Average Amount Outstanding Seasonally Adjusted Millions of Dollars 1966 Dec. Nov. Oct. Sept. $ 309,650 $ 208,750 208,300 $ 47,300 47,350 $ 53,600 308,300 308,400 309,750 207,700 207,350 47,350 47,200 53,350 55,200 52,650 1/ Data used are averages of end of preceding and current month. Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis January 17, 1967
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