Full text of National Economic Trends : February 1991
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N a t io n a l E c o n o m ic T r e n d s F e b r u a r y 1991 T h e to n a tio n ’ s re a l g ro s s th e advance s ig n a ls b e in g e s t im a t e n a t io n a l p r o d u c t d e c lin e d p re p a re d tr a n s m itte d b y key by th e U .S . m o n th ly a t a 2 .1 p e rc e n t a n n u a l ra te D e p a rtm e n t o f C o m m e rc e . e c o n o m ic in d ic a t o r s . O f th e 2 .1 T h is in th e d e c lin e fo u rth w as q u a rte r o f 1 9 9 0 , c o n s is te n t w it h p e r c e n t r a te o f d e c lin e in a c c o r d in g th e r e c e s s io n re a l G N P , 2 p e rce n t w a s a t t r ib u t a b le to a d r o p in in v e n t o r y in v e s t m e n t . S o m e a n a ly s t s h a v e a r g u e d th a t, s in c e th e d r o p in in v e n t o r y w a s r e s p o n s ib le f o r s o m u c h o f th e d e c lin e in r e a l G N P , in v e n t o r ie s m u s t n o t b e e x c e s s iv e a t th is tim e . T h u s , t h e y b e lie v e th a t th e r e c e s s io n w i l l b e s h o r t a n d m ild , b e c a u s e p r o d u c t io n w i l l n o t h a v e to b e r e d u c e d m u c h f u r t h e r to b r in g T h e sh a rp ta b le b e lo w d e c lin e a ro u n d th e in s u m m a r iz e s in v e n t o r y b e g in n in g o f a s o m e b a s ic in v e s tm e n t r e c e s s io n fo r is c h a r a c t e r is tic s one not a q u a rte r u s e fu l g u id e C h a r a c t e r is t ic s _____________ R e a l A c tu a l o f G N P D ue Q u a rte r1 o f p o s tw a r at o r to near fo r its r e c e s s io n s . o n s e t. g a u g in g P o s tw a r g ro w th in v e n to r y in v e s tm e n t it s E a c h T hus, d e p th a and in v e n t o r ie s in lin e w it h r e c e s s io n sh a rp d ro p w as in c h a r a c t e r iz e d in v e n t o r y s a le s . by a in v e s tm e n t d u r a tio n . R e c e s s io n s r a t e ___________________ Peak to tro u g h IV / 1 9 8 1 - 5 .5 % - 3 .0 % - 3 .4 % IV / 1 9 7 9 - 0 .8 - 2 .4 - 9 .1 1/1974 - 2 .2 - 3 .0 - 3 .5 1/1970 - 2 .4 - 2 .6 - 1 .5 li/ 1 9 6 0 - 1 .1 - 4 .6 - 1 .4 IV / 1 9 5 7 - 6 .1 - 3 .8 - 7 .0 1 1 1 /1 9 5 3 - 1 .8 - 2 .8 - 3 .0 1/1949 - 4 .6 - 4 .2 - 2 .0 L e n g th of r e c e s s io n 16 m o n th s 6 16 11 10 8 10 11 Q u a r t e r at o r n e a r onset o f re c e s s io n in w h ic h the d e c lin e in re a l G N P w a s d o m in a te d b y a d e c lin e in in v e n to ry in v e stm e n t. — K e ith T H F E D E R R E B A S T E A L S E R V E N K o f .I / H L S v i e w s e x p r e s s e d d o n o t n e c e s s a r i ly r e f l e c t o f f ic ia l p o s i t io n s o f t h e F e d e ra l R e s e r v e S y s t e m . M . C a r ls o n T O T A L C IV IL IA N E M P L O Y M E N T * (Compounded A nnual Rates of Change) THOUSANDS OF PERSONS 6-89 7-89 8 -89 9-89 10-89 11-89 l 00 INITIAL MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 5-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 7-90 6-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 117.400 6-89 3 .5 7-89 1.8 0.1 8-89 1.7 0 .8 117,413 117.565 1.6 117,417 9-89 0 .9 0.1 0 .0 - 1 .5 10-89 1.1 0 .6 0 .7 0 .3 2 .1 11-89 1 .5 1.1 1.3 1 .2 2 .6 3.1 12-89 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.0 1.9 1.7 0 .4 1-90 1.1 0 .8 0 .9 0 .8 1.4 1.1 0.1 - 0 .1 2-90 1.2 0 .9 1.0 0 .9 1.3 1.2 0.5 0 .6 117.619 117.920 117,957 117,945 118,074 1.3 118.235 3-90 1.2 0 .9 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.3 0 .8 0.9 1.5 1.6 4-90 1 .0 0 .7 0 .8 0 .7 1.0 0 .8 0 .3 0 .3 0 .5 0.1 - 1 .5 5-90 1.0 0 .8 0 .9 0 .8 1.1 1.0 0 .6 0 .7 0 .8 0 .7 0.2 1 .9 6-90 0 .9 0 .7 0 .8 0 .7 0 .9 0 .8 0 .5 0 .5 0 .6 0 .4 0 .0 0 .7 - 0 .4 7-90 0 .6 0 .4 0 .4 0 .3 0 .5 0 .3 0 .0 - 0 .1 - 0 .1 - 0 .4 - 0 .9 - 0 .7 - 2 .0 - 3 .5 8-90 0 .4 0 .2 0 .2 0 .1 0 .3 0 .1 - 0 .3 - 0 .3 - 0 .4 - 0 .6 -1 .1 - 1 .0 - 2 .0 - 2 .7 118.090 118.277 118.237 117.882 - 1 .9 117.690 9-90 0 .5 0 .3 0 .3 0 .2 0 .4 0 .2 0 .0 - 0 .1 - 0 .1 - 0 .3 - 0 .6 - 0 .4 - 1 .0 - 1 .2 0 .0 2 .0 10-90 0 .4 0 .2 0 .2 0.1 0 .2 0.1 - 0 .2 - 0 .2 - 0 .2 - 0 .4 - 0 .7 - 0 .6 - 1 .1 - 1 .3 - 0 .5 0 .2 - 1 .5 117.883 11-90 0 .2 0 .0 0 .0 - 0 .1 0 .0 - 0 .2 - 0 .5 - 0 .5 - 0 .6 - 0 .8 -l.l - 1 .0 - 1 .5 - 1 .7 - 1 .3 - 1 .0 - 2 .5 - 3 .5 12-90 0 .3 0.1 0.1 0 .0 0.1 0 .0 - 0 .3 - 0 .3 - 0 .3 - 0 .5 - 0 .7 - 0 .7 - 1 .0 - 1 .1 - 0 .6 - 0 .3 - 1 .0 - 0 .8 5-89 6-89 7-89 8 -89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 117.733 117.386 1.9 117.574 INITIAL MONTH «REVISED FROM 1986 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS JANUARY 4 . 1991 PAYROLL E M P LO Y M EN T (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 5-89 6-89 7-89 6-89 2 .6 7-89 2 .0 1.4 8-89 1.8 1 .5 1.5 8 -8 9 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 INITIAL MONTH OF PERSONS 2-90 3-90 1-90 THOUSANDS 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 108.364 108.490 9-89 2 .0 1.9 2 .1 2 .7 10-89 1.9 1.7 1.8 2 .0 1 .2 11-89 2 .1 2 .0 2 .1 2 .3 2 .1 3 .0 12-89 2 .0 1 .9 2 .0 2 .1 1.9 2 .2 1 .5 1-90 2 .1 2 .0 2 .2 2 .3 2 .2 2 .5 2 .3 2-90 2 .3 2 .2 2 .3 2 .5 2 .4 2 .7 2 .6 3 .2 3 .4 3-90 2 .2 2 .2 2 .3 2 .4 2 .3 2 .5 2 .4 2 .7 2 .6 4-90 2 .1 2 .0 2 .1 2 .1 2.1 2 .2 2 .1 2 .2 1.9 1.2 0 .6 5-90 2 .3 2 .3 2 .4 2 .4 2 .4 2 .6 2 .5 2 .7 2 .7 2 .4 2 .7 4 .9 6-90 2 .3 2 .3 2 .4 2 .4 2 .4 2 .6 2 .5 2 .7 2 .6 2 .4 2 .6 3 .6 2 .3 7-90 2 .1 2 .0 2.1 2 .1 2 .1 2 .2 2 .1 2 .1 2 .0 1.7 1.7 2 .1 0 .7 - 1 .0 8-90 1 .8 1 .8 1.8 1 .8 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.7 1.5 1 .2 1.1 1 .2 0 .0 - 1 .2 - 1 .4 9-90 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.7 1.6 1 .6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1 .0 0 .9 1.0 0 .0 - 0 .8 - 0 .7 0 .0 10-90 1.5 1 .4 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.3 1.2 1.2 0 .9 0 .6 0 .5 0 .5 - 0 .4 - 1 .1 - 1 .1 - 1 .0 -1 .9 11-90 1.3 1 .2 1.2 1.1 1 .0 1 .0 0 .8 0 .8 0 .6 0 .3 0.1 0 .0 - 0 .8 - 1 .4 - 1 .5 - 1 .6 - 2 .4 - 2 .8 12-90 1.1 1.1 1.0 1 .0 0 .9 0 .9 0 .7 0 .7 0 .4 0 .2 0 .0 - 0 .1 - 0 .8 - 1 .3 - 1 .4 - 1 .4 -1 .8 - 1 .8 - 0 .8 5 -89 6-89 7-89 8 -8 9 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8 -90 9-90 SC 108,628 108.868 11-90 108.980 109*245 109.383 3 .0 109*654 109*958 1.8 110*122 110*177 110*617 110*829 110*740 110*613 110.612 ? O 110*432 110*173P 110.097P IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS JANUARY 4 , 1991 2 EMPLOYMENT R A T IO S C A L E M I L L I O N S OF R A T IO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED P E R S O N S M I L L I O N S OF S C A L E P E R S O N S SOURCE* U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BEGINNING JANUARY I9BB. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE NEW PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0.3 t. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIOOS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED» DECEMBER PRELIMINARY * REVISED FROM 198« PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE* PERCENT 1983 SEASONALLY 1984 1985 1986 A D JU S T E D 1987 1988 PERCENT 1989 1990 1991 SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt DECEMBER «REVISED FROM 1086 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 3 C O N S U M E R P R IC E IN D E X F O R A LL U R B A N C O N S U M E R S (Compounded Annual Rates o f Change) IN IT IA L MONTH 6-89 6-89 2 .9 7-89 5 .4 5 .9 8-89 2 .5 1.9 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 1982-84*100 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 ? * o TERMINAL MONTH 5-89 11-90 124.1 124.5 0 .0 124.5 9-89 2 .4 2 .5 1.5 2 .9 10-89 5.1 5 .2 2 .9 4 .4 124.8 11-89 5 .5 5 .5 5 .2 4 .2 4 .9 5 .9 12-89 5.5 5 .6 5.5 4 .4 4 .9 4 .4 4 .9 1-90 4 .8 5 .0 5 .2 6 .5 7.1 7 .5 9 .4 14.1 2-90 4 .9 5 .1 5 .5 6 .2 6 .9 7.1 8 .2 9 .9 5 .8 5-90 5 .0 5 .2 5 .5 6.1 6 .7 6 .8 7 .6 8 .5 5 .8 125.4 5 .9 125.8 126.5 127.7 128.5 128.9 5 .8 4-90 4 .7 4 .9 5 .0 5 .6 6 .0 6 .0 6.4 6.8 4 .5 5 .8 1.9 5-90 4 .4 4 .6 4 .6 5 .2 5 .5 5 .4 5 .6 5 .8 5 .8 5 .2 1.9 1.9 129.1 6-90 4 .6 4 .8 4 .8 5 .5 5 .6 5 .6 5 .8 5 .9 4 .4 4 .0 5 .5 4 .5 6 .7 7-90 4 .6 4 .8 4 .8 5 .5 5 .5 5 .5 5 .7 5 .8 4 .4 4 .2 5 .8 4 .4 5 .7 4 .7 8-90 4 .9 5 .1 5 .2 5 .6 5 .9 5 .9 6.1 6 .2 5 .2 5 .1 4 .9 5 .7 7 .0 7.1 129.5 150.0 150.5 9 .6 151.5 9-90 5 .2 5 .4 5 .5 5 .9 6 .2 6 .2 6.4 6 .6 5 .7 5 .7 5 .7 6 .4 7 .6 7 .9 9 .6 9.5 10-90 5 .4 5 .5 5 .6 6 .0 6 .5 6.5 6 .5 6 .7 5 .9 5 .9 5 .9 6 .6 7.6 7 .8 8 .9 8 .5 7 .5 11-90 5 .5 5 .4 5 .5 5 .9 6.1 6.1 6 .5 6.4 5 .7 5 .7 5 .6 6 .2 6 .9 7 .0 7 .5 6 .9 5 .6 5 .7 12-90 5 .2 5 .5 5 .4 5 .7 5 .9 5 .9 6.1 6 .2 5 .5 5 .4 5 .4 5 .9 6.4 6 .4 6 .7 6 .0 4 .9 5 .7 5-89 6-89 7-89 8 -8 9 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8 -9 0 152.5 155.5 155.7 5 .6 154.1 9-90 10-90 11-90 INITIAL MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS JANUARY 16, 1991 PRODUCER PRICE IN D EX, FINISHED G O O D S (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) INITIAL MONTH 6-89 7-89 8 -8 9 6-89 1.1 7-89 - 1 .6 - 4 .1 8-89 - 2 .1 - 5 .6 - 5 .1 9-89 0 .5 0.4 2 .7 8 .8 10-89 1.7 1.9 5 .9 7 .6 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 1982 « 100 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 ? * o TERMINAL MONTH 5-89 11-90 114.0 115.6 115.5 114.1 6.5 114.7 11-89 1.6 1.7 5.2 5 .4 5.7 1.1 12-89 2 .4 2 .6 4 .1 5 .9 5 .0 4 .5 7.6 1-90 5 .0 5 .6 7.5 9 .6 9 .8 10.9 16.1 25.4 2-90 4 .5 4 .9 6 .5 7 .9 7 .7 8 .1 10.5 12.0 0 .0 5-90 5 .8 4 .1 5 .2 6 .4 6 .0 6 .0 7 .2 7.1 - 1 .0 114.8 115.5 117.7 117.7 - 2 .0 117.5 4-90 5 .5 5 .5 4 .4 5 .5 4 .9 4 .6 5 .5 4 .7 - 1 .4 - 2 .0 - 2 .0 5-90 5.1 5 .5 4 .0 4 .9 4 .4 4 .1 4 .6 4 .0 - 0 .8 - 1 .0 - 0 .5 117.5 1 .0 117.4 6-90 5 .0 5 .2 5 .8 4 .6 4 .1 5.8 4 .2 5 .7 - 0 .2 - 0 .5 0 .5 1.5 2 .1 7-90 2 .9 5 .0 3 .6 4 .2 5 .8 5.5 5 .8 5 .5 0 .0 0 .0 0 .5 1.4 1.5 1.0 8-90 5 .6 5 .7 4 .4 5 .0 4 .7 4 .5 4 .9 4 .6 1.9 2 .2 5.1 4 .4 5 .6 7 .4 14.1 9-90 4 .6 4 .8 5 .5 6 .2 6 .0 5 .9 6 .4 6 .5 4 .1 4 .7 5 .9 7 .5 9 .2 11.7 17.5 2 0 .9 10-90 5 .1 5 .5 6 .0 6 .7 6 .5 6 .5 7.1 7 .0 5 .1 5 .8 7 .0 8 .5 10.1 12.2 16.2 17.5 15.7 11-90 5 .1 5 .4 6 .0 6.7 6 .5 6 .5 7 .0 6 .9 5 .2 5 .8 6.8 8 .2 9 .4 10.9 15.6 15.4 9 .8 6.1 12-90 4 .5 4 .7 5 .2 5 .8 5 .6 5 .5 5 .9 5 .7 4.1 4 .5 5 .5 6 .2 7 .0 7 .8 9 .2 8 .0 4 .0 - 0 .5 5-89 6-89 7-89 8 -89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8 -9 0 117.6 117.7 119.0 120.9 122.2 122.8 - 6 .6 122.1 9-90 10-90 11-90 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS JANUARY 11, 1991 4 RATIO SCALE 1982-100 P R IC E S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED RATIO SCALE 1982-100 CONSUMER P R IC E S B A TA ARC ON A 1 0 0 2 -0 4 -1 0 0 B A SE CP 1 -0 O A T A SCO IM N I NO 1003 IN C O R P O R A T E A R E N T A L COU I V A L E N C E M EASURE F O R H O M E O VN E R S H IP C O S T S . P E R C E N TA O E S AR E AN NUAL R A T E S OF CHAN OE FO R P E R IO O S I N D IC A T E D . L A T E S T D A T A P L O T T E O t DECEMBER PR E P A R ED B Y F E O E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . r a t io PRODUCER P R I C E S scale P E R C E N TA G E S ARE AN NUAL R A T E S OF CHAN OE FO R P E R IO D S L A T E S T D A TA P LO TTED « r a t io L O U IS scale I N D IC A T E D . DECEMBER PREPARED BY FEOERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS 5 P R O D U C E R P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D C O N S U M E R F O O D S (Compounded A nnual R ales o f Change) INITIAL MONTH 6-89 7-89 8 -8 9 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 6-89 - 6 .9 7-89 - 2 .5 2 .1 8-89 - 0 .5 5 .1 4 .1 9-89 - 1 .5 0 .7 0 .0 -4 .0 10-89 2 .2 4 .7 5 .5 6 .2 17.5 11-89 5 .6 5 .8 6 .8 7 .6 14.0 10.5 12-89 4 .4 6 .4 7 .5 8 .1 12.4 9 .9 1-90 2 -90 5-90 1982 « 100 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8 -90 f * o TERMINAL MONTH 5-89 10-90 11-90 117.9 118.1 118.5 118.1 119.7 120.7 121.6 9 .5 1-90 7 .4 9 .6 11.0 12.4 16.9 16.7 19.9 51.4 2-90 7 .6 9 .6 10.7 11.8 15.5 14.7 16.1 19.7 9 .0 5-90 6 .2 7 .8 8 .5 9.1 11.5 10.5 10.5 10.6 1 .5 4-90 4 .6 5 .8 6 .5 6 .5 8 .1 6 .6 5 .9 5 .0 - 2 .5 5-90 4 .6 5 .7 6 .0 6 .2 7 .6 6 .2 5 .5 4 .8 -1 .0 - 4 .1 - 5 .5 4 .0 6-90 5 .8 4 .7 5 .0 5 .1 6 .1 4 .8 4 .0 5.1 -1 .7 -4 .2 - 5 .8 - 0 .5 - 4 .7 124.4 125.5 - 5 .6 124.7 - 7 .9 -1 0 .1 125.6 124.0 125.5 125.9 7-90 5 .8 4 .7 4 .9 5 .0 5 .9 4 .7 4 .0 5 .5 - 0 .8 - 2 .7 - 1 .9 1 .0 - 0 .5 4 .0 8-90 4 .1 4 .9 5 .1 5 .2 6 .1 5 .0 4 .4 5 .8 0 .4 -1 .0 0 .0 2 .7 2 .5 6 .0 8 .0 9-90 5 .2 5 .9 4 .1 4 .0 4 .7 5 .7 5 .0 2 .5 - 0 .8 - 2 .2 - 1 .6 0 .2 - 0 .7 0 .6 -1 .0 - 9 .2 124.7 125.7 10-90 5 .7 4 .4 4 .5 4 .5 5 .2 4 .5 5 .7 5 .2 0 .4 - 0 .6 0.1 2 .0 1.6 5 .2 2 .9 0 .5 11.2 11-90 4 .0 4 .7 4 .9 4 .9 5 .6 4 .7 4 .2 5 .8 1.4 0 .5 1.5 5.1 2 .9 4 .5 4 .7 5 .6 10.6 12-90 5 .2 5 .8 5 .9 5 .9 4 .4 5 .6 5.1 2 .5 0 .5 - 0 .6 0 .0 1.5 1.0 2 .0 1.6 0.Ó 5 .5 5-89 6-89 7-89 8 -8 9 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8 -90 124.8 10.1 125.8 - 0 .5 -1 0 .0 124.7 9-90 10-90 11-90 INITIAL MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS JANUARY 11» 1991 PRODUCER PRICE IN D EX, FINISHED G O O D S , EXCLU D IN G F O O D S (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 5-89 INITIAL MONTH 6-89 7-89 6-89 5 .5 7-89 - 1 .6 - 6 .2 8-89 - 5 .2 - 6 .2 - 6 .2 8 -8 9 >-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 1982 « 100 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8 -90 9-90 10-90 11-90 112.7 112.1 111.5 9-89 1.1 0 .4 5 .8 14.9 10-89 1.5 1.1 5 .6 8 .9 112.8 5 .2 115.1 11-89 0 .9 0 .4 2 .2 5 .1 0 .5 -2 .1 12-89 1.7 1 .4 5 .0 5 .5 2 .5 2 .1 6 .6 1-90 4 .5 4 .5 6 .5 9 .1 7 .6 9.1 15.2 112.9 115.5 2 4 .6 115.6 2-90 5 .5 5 .5 4 .8 6 .7 5 .2 5 .7 8 .4 9 .5 - 4 .1 5-90 5 .0 5 .0 4 .2 5 .8 4 .5 4 .5 6 .2 6.1 - 2 .1 0 .0 4-90 2 .7 2 .7 5 .7 5 .0 5 .7 5 .7 5 .0 4 .6 - 1 .4 0 .0 0 .0 5-90 2 .6 2 .5 5 .4 4 .6 5 .5 5 .4 4 .5 5 .8 -0 .8 0 .5 0 .5 1.0 6-90 2 .6 2 .6 5 .4 4 .4 5 .5 5 .5 4 .1 5 .7 0 .0 1 .0 1.4 2 .1 5 .2 115.2 115.2 115.2 115.5 115.6 7-90 2 .5 2 .5 5 .2 4 .1 5.1 5 .1 5 .7 5 .5 0 .2 1 .0 1.5 1 .7 2 .1 1 .0 8-90 5 .4 5 .4 4 .2 5 .1 4 .5 4 .4 5 .1 4 .9 2 .4 5 .5 4 .2 5 .5 6 .8 8 .6 16.7 9-90 5 .0 5 .1 5 .9 6 .9 6 .5 6 .6 7 .5 7 .6 5 .6 7 .1 8 .5 10.1 12.5 15.7 2 5 .9 51.4 10-90 5 .5 5 .7 6 .5 7 .5 6 .9 7 .5 8 .1 8 .5 6 .6 8 .0 9 .2 10.9 12.9 15.5 2 0 .8 2 2 .9 14.9 11-90 5 .5 5 .6 6 .4 7 .5 6 .8 7 .1 7 .9 8 .0 6 .5 7 .7 8 .7 10.0 11.6 15.4 16.7 16.6 9 .9 5 .1 12-90 4 .9 5 .0 5 .7 6 .5 5 .9 6.1 6 .8 6 .8 5 .5 6 .5 7.0 7 .9 8 .9 9 .9 11.8 10.6 4 .4 - 0 .5 5-89 6-89 7-89 8 -8 9 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2 -90 5-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8 -90 115.7 117.2 119.9 121.5 121.8 - 5 .8 121.2 9-90 10-90 11-90 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS JANUARY 11, 1991 6 I N D U S T R I A L R A T IO P R O D U C T I O N S C A L E R A T IO I 987-1 00 1983 S C A L E 1987-100 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIOOS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« DECEMBER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS INDUSTRIAL PR O DUCTION (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) 7-89 8 -89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 1987 « 100 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 6-89 1.1 7-89 -2 .7 - 6 .4 8 -89 - 0 .4 - 1 .1 4 .5 9-89 - 0 .5 - 0 .7 2 .2 0 .0 10-89 - 1 .5 - 1 .9 - 0 .4 - 2 .7 - 5 .4 11-89 - 0 .4 - 0 .7 0 .8 - 0 .4 - 0 .6 4 .5 12-89 0 .5 0 .4 1.8 1.1 1 .5 5 .1 1-90 - 1 .1 - 1 .4 - 0 .6 - 1 .5 - 1 .9 - 0 .7 2 -90 0 .2 0.1 1.1 0 .6 0 .7 2 .2 1 .5 - 0 .6 11.8 5-90 0 .7 0 .6 1.5 1.1 1 .5 2 .7 2 .2 1.1 8 .1 4 .5 4-90 0 .5 0 .4 1.2 0 .8 1.0 2 .1 1 .6 0 .6 4 .9 1.7 - 1 .1 5-90 1 .0 1 .0 1 .8 1 .5 1.7 2 .7 2 .4 1.8 5 .4 5 .4 2 .8 6 .8 6-90 1.5 1 .6 2 .5 2 .1 2 .5 5 .4 5 .2 2 .8 5 .9 4 .5 4 .5 7 .4 8 .0 2 .9 5 .5 4 .5 4 .2 6 .0 5 .6 5 .5 2 .2 1.1 8 -90 9-90 T « o INITIAL MONTH 6-89 ? * © TERMINAL MONTH 5-89 108.4 107.8 108.2 108.2 107.7 108.1 5 .7 108.6 - 5 .5 -1 1 .5 107.5 108.5 108.9 108.8 109.4 110.1 7-90 1.7 1.7 2 .4 2 .2 2 .4 5 .4 5 .2 8 -9 0 1 .6 1.7 2 .5 2 .1 2 .5 5 .1 5 .0 2 .6 4 .8 5 .7 5 .6 4 .8 4 .1 9-90 1.6 1.6 2 .2 2 .0 2 .2 2 .9 2 .8 2 .5 4 .4 5 .5 5.1 4 .0 5 .5 1 .8 1.1 1.1 10-90 1 .0 1.0 1.5 1.5 1.4 1 .9 1.7 1.5 2 .9 1.8 1.4 1.8 0 .9 - 0 .8 - 2 .2 - 5 .7 11-90 -0 .5 - 0 .4 0 .0 - 0 .5 - 0 .5 0 .1 - 0 .5 - 0 .8 0 .5 - 0 .9 - 1 .5 -1 .6 - 2 .9 - 4 .9 - 6 .9 - 9 .4 -1 4 .5 - 1 9 .8 12-90 - 0 .7 - 0 .8 - 0 .5 - 0 .8 - 0 .8 - 0 .5 - 0 .9 - 1 .4 - 0 .4 - 1 .5 - 2 .2 - 2 .5 - 5 .6 - 5 .4 - 7 .0 - 8 .9 -1 2 .1 -1 5 .9 5-89 6-89 7-89 8 -89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8 -90 110.4 110.5 110.6 - 8 .5 109.8 107.8P - 7 .5 1 0 7 .IP 9-90 10-90 11-90 IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS JANUARY 16. 1991 7 P E R S O N A L R A T IO SCALE TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1983 I N C O M E R A T IO SCALE MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES 1984 TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 SWftCtt « . I . t€fAtTMCKT * CtNNtftCC PtftC€NTA4€$ A*t AM»A l M U S #F CNANtf F M P U t lM t II» ICATC*. LATEST »ATA f lt T T E I t MCtMtCR ffttLIMINAftY fftEfAftU IY f l l l M l KCSCftVC SANK I f S t . I M I t PER SO N AL IN CO M E ( C i M f m M A i m s I K H tt ifC b ii| ^ BILLIONS OF TERMINAL MONTH INITIAL NOHTH ANNUAL KATES 7-W M t M l 1M » 11-91 11-11 1 2 - M 4 472.1 4*4 S4 7 .1 M f t .l S .4 M ) S .t S.4 4 4 9 1 .2 4491.7 1.1 S.4 4*411.4 1H 9 4.7 4.1 S .9 S .l t.S 11-«* » .I S.4 S .l 4.4 1.2 1.1 12-0* ».6 S .l S.S 44 7.1 74 4*441.1 4*471.1 7.4 4*414.7 H I 4.1 6.1 4.2 7.4 1.4 t.S 1.4 I. l H I 44 4.4 4.S 7.S 1.4 1.4 I.S I. l I. l H I 4.4 4.1 44 74 S.S t.S 1.4 I. l 1.6 I. l 44S2.2 4441.4 4414.7 4-M 4*2 S .l 2.4 H I 4.1 4.2 4.1 44 7.2 7.1 4.1 44 4.1 S.S S.S 44 l-M 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.4 7.1 44 4.4 44 S .l s.s 4.1 44 S .l H I 4.1 4.1 4.1 4.4 4.1 4.7 44 4.4 S4 S.4 44 S.2 S.S H I 14 S .f S .l 4.S 4.S 4.4 4.2 4.1 S.S S .l 4.2 4.7 4.7 44 S.2 H I S .t S .t S .l 4.S 4.S 4.S 4.1 4.1 14 S.2 44 4.1 S .l S .l 4.4 44 4*4174 1H I S.4 s.s S.4 S .l S .l S.7 S4 S.S 4.1 44 S4 4.1 S .l S.4 2.1 2.7 -1.4 4*414.1 IH I S.4 S.4 S.S S.7 S4 S.7 S.S S.S 44 44 S.* 4.1 4.1 S4 S.S S.4 »4 9 M 9 4*4144 4*421.4 4*441.7 S .l 4*442.7 4*47S.I 24 4.4 4*71S.7 IH I H 9 M l M l lM f 1 H 9 lM f H I IN ITIA L P - PRELIMINARY U*M R E T A R A TIO SCALE B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 1983 1984 1985 I L S A L E S R A T IO SCALE B I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 SSW Ctt B .S . KfAiTMCMT * P U d N T A M t Ate ANN9AL «ATM Of CMAIttt F M P U IM S INBICATEB. LATEST SATA P lI T T t t t MVCMMK, K C C t U t t AiVANCE ESTIMATE PBEPAftEB BY P I H I A l R CK KV t M M * f t . IM IS X E TA IL SA LES A w t f l R s ü i s f C h t ig é ) tem unal NONTH i n i t i a l nonth m illio n s o f DOLLARS B-St 4-St 7-St s-st t-st lB-St 11-St 12-St 1-tS 2-tB S-tt 4-tB B-tB 4-tB 7-tB S-tB t-tB lB-tB 11—tB 144*214 «-St -1.4 7-St 2.S s-st 1.1 ll.B 1S.7 t-st B.S S.4 B.B IS-St 1.1 2.S B.S -B.7 -14.2 145,170 S.S 144*781 147,157 S.B 11-St 2.4 S4 2.7 -B.7 -2 4 12-St l.B 2.S 1.1 -1 4 -S.B 1-tO B.B 44 4.4 B.2 B.4 2-*0 4.t S-tB S .t 4.7 4.S S.B 2 .t 4-tB 2.B S.l 2.B 1.2 B-tB 2.2 2.7 2.2 l.B S.l S.4 S.2 7-tO S.S S.S s-ts S.l t-tB S.4 14B*2t4 1B.1 144*447 2.S -B.B 14B44S 1S.2 14.S SB.7 14t477 14t,tB4 4.7 B .t t.B -2.S -4.7 14t,SB2 B.t S.4 2.S 4.S -B.2 -7.B -1B.B 1474S4 B.4 2«t 14 S.2 -4.1 -B.B —4.B -B 4 2.2 2.1 4.S S.B B.B -B.7 -B.t S.B 2.4 2.B 4.B S4 B.2 B.4 B.S S.4 S.2 2.4 2.S 4.1 S.B 4.4 1.4 B.B 4«t 44 S.S B.S 150,241 4.1 S.S S.B S.B 4.7 4.2 B.S 1.7 l. t 4.1 7.t B4 B.B 11.1 lBl.BBt 147,7S1 4.4 144 14 4.4 1B.2 14t,4S2 4.4 1BS.281 is-tB l.B S.t S.4 2.t 2.t 4.4 S .t 4.t 1.7 l. t B.S 4.4 4.7 4.2 4.2 14 11-tB B.2 S.4 S.S 2.7 2.4 4.B S.B 4.S 1.4 l.B 4.4 B.S S.4 2 .t S.S B.S -B.t 12-tO 2.B S.l 2.S 2.2 2.1 S.4 2.t S.4 B.t B.t S.2 S.B 2.2 1.4 1.7 -l.S B-St 4-St 7-St s-st 24 t-st lB-St 11-St 12-St 1-tS 2-tB 1B1.7B1 -2.7 -4.4 1B1.4S5P 1B1*B44E lB-tB 11-tB IN ITIA L NONTH P - HtELININARY E - ESTIMATED P » A A E D tV FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS JANUARY 15» m i 9 H O U R L Y C O M P E N S A T IO N , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R y i i p i i i l e l A i i i i I R m > t f C f c i i f f i) i INITIAL QUARTER MS M4 2-t4 S.S Ml 4*9 4.1 Mi 4.7 4.S 4.1 4-ti 4.4 4.1 4.0 I-t7 M7 S.t 1.4 S.4 M7 S.9 S.7 S.S 4-07 4.4 4.2 4.2 1-Ot 4.2 4.0 * 4 2-tt 4.S 4.2 4.1 Mi Mi 1-07 2-07 S-07 4-07 1-00 2-00 S-00 4-00 Mt 2-Ot S.t 2.S S.l 2.0 *«4 2.7 4.2 "s.t S.4 M 4.1 S.t 1.7 2.t 4.4 4*t 4.2 4.0 S.0 7.7 4.7 S.l 2.4 4.0 S.l S.t S.2 s-ot Mt 1-tt 2-tt 11S.7 llt.O llt.2 120.t 121.S 122.0 12S.2 12S.S 124.S 127.t 12t.7 ISt.t lSl.t 1S2.7 - MB l-tt 4.S 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1 4.S 4*t 4.t 4.2 4.0 4.4 S.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 4.1 S.t 4.2 4.S 4.4 4.0 4.4 4.1 S.S S.l 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 S.t 4.0 4.S 4.S S.t 4.t S.t S.l 2.t 2.0 S.t S.7 S.4 S.7 S.t S.t S.4 S.S S.2 2.4 2.4 2.0 1.2 S.t M I.t S.7 S.7 S.S S.S S.S S.t S.7 S.S S.4 S.l 2.S 2.S 2.0 1.7 2.1 S.t S.t S.7 S.7 S.S S.7 S.t S.t S.4 S.S S.S 2it 2.7 2.7 2.4 S.S M l S.t S.t S.t s«t S.7 S4 S.t S.t S.4 S.7 S.S S.2 S.l S.l S.2 s.t 4.0 S.l S-tO 4.0 S.9 S.t SJ S.7 S.t 4.t 4.t S.S S.t S.S S.S S.S S.4 S.S 4.1 4.7 4.t S-ti 4-04 M 7 M7 S-07 4-07 MO MS Mt Mt Mt Mt Ht Mt M9 Mt 4-tS M S M4 S-00 4-00 t TERMINAIL QUARTER < 1SS.1 ISS.t 4.4 1SS.S 1S7.S 4.S 1S0.S 1-tt 2-tt INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED tV FEDERAL RESERVE DANK OF ST« LOUIS O U T P U T P E R H O U R O F A L L P E R S O N S , BU SIN ESS S E C T O R ( G l t f l i i M A m m m I R lt t t t f Q ttB ft) TERMINAL INITIAL QUARTER 4-OS M 4 MS 7.2 2-ti S.2 -0.7 S-ti 1.4 -1 4 2-04 S-ti 4-ti M7 2-07 S-07 4-07 MO ltt2«ltt 2-00 S-tt 4-tt Mt 2-tt S-tt 4-tt 1-tt 2-tt Itt.t It*. 7 -2.2 ltt.l 4-04 l.S -0.4 -0 4 1.1 M7 1.1 -0.4 -t.2 t.7 ltt.4 ltt.S t.4 2-07 llt.S S-07 l.S 0.7 l.t 14 2.t 2«t 4-07 14 1.1 1.4 2.1 2.4 S.l S.l S.S 1-00 2.1 14 14 24 24 S.4 S.S s.t 4.4 2-tt 14 14 t.4 24 2.4 2.2 1.4 -1.1 S-00 l.t l.S l.S 24 2.4 24 l.t 2.2 111.1 1124 11S4 0.7 112.t 24 11S.4 4-00 US.I Mt 1.4 O.t 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.4 1.1 0.7 -0.2 0.1 -1.1 -t.4 2-0t l.S o.t 14 l.S l.S 1.4 1.2 14 0.4 -0.1 0.1 -t.7 -t.2 Mt 1.1 0.7 t4 1.1 1.1 1.1 O.t t.7 O.S -0.4 -0.2 -t .t 4-0t O.t 04 0.4 t.t t.t t4 0.4 t.S 04 -0.7 -0.4 -1.2 - l . l 1-tt 04 0.4 04 t.7 t.t t.7 04 t.2 -0.1 -0.7 —0.4 -1.1 -1 4 2-tO 04 0.4 0.S t.7 t.S t.7 04 t.S 0.0 -0 4 s-to 04 0.4 04 t.7 t.4 t.4 04 t.S 0.0 -0.4 -0.4 -t.7 -t.t 4-OS M S M l S-ti 4-ti M7 M7 S-07 4-07 MO —0.4 -t .t MO HS.t 04 HS.t —t.4 -0.7 -1.4 112.4 -l.t -2 4 -1.2 -1 4 -l.S -t.7 —14 t.t t.7 -0.4 -t.7 -t.S t .l t.S -l.S -t.7 -0 4 S-tt 4-00 M t -1 4 Mt m .t S-tt 4-tt 111.7 m .t t.4 1124 1-tt M t initial quarter : tANK OF S T. LOUIS 10 P R O D U C T IV IT Y , C O M P E N S A T IO N , AND LA BO R C O ST S RATIO SCALE RATIO SCALE 19 8 2 *1 0 0 1983 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1984 1985 1986 N M SN TM It AM ANMML ftATt* * LATEST tATA FLtTTtt* M l MAKTtt 1987 m p u im 1988 1 9 8 2 -1 0 0 1989 1990 1991 t m C i t •.*. K T M T M IT * im ic a t o . m r m i i t fu h m . u u x n u m * LAMA * r, lm i s U N IT L A B O R C O S T S , B U SIN ESS S E C T O R ^ C M f m M A m n m I B a le s i f C f c m ^ TERMINAL QUARTER 4 -tS M im « iN i n i t i a l q u arter 1 -S I 2 -S I M l 4 -S I M 7 M 7 M 7 M 7 M S M S M S M S M f 2 -S f s-st M S 1 -f S 2 -tS 1 S I.2 l -1 4 t-M 1 .7 1 .4 t-H S .l S .7 1 S 7 .I lS t .2 1 .1 4 -S I S .S S4 S .S 14 1-S7 S4 14 1 .2 S .S 2 .2 M 7 24 S .S 24 1 .7 S .I -1 .1 S-S7 2*2 24 2 .1 1 .1 •4 - S .2 1 .1 M 7 24 S .l 24 2 .1 14 14 2 .7 l.l M S 24 24 2 .1 1 .1 #4 S .S 1 .1 1 .1 - 2 .1 M l 2*4 24 2 .1 2 .1 1 .7 1 .7 2 .1 24 2 .2 l.l S-SS 24 24 2 .7 24 2 4 14 2 .1 S .S 24 14 M S 2*7 S .l 24 2 .1 24 24 S .S S .l S .l 14 l.l S .S M f 24 S4 S .S 2 .7 24 24 S .l S .S S .S 1 .7 14 l.l M9 24 S .l 24 2 .7 24 24 S .S S .S S .l 1 .2 S .l S4 S .l 2 .1 S-St 24 S .l 24 2 .7 24 24 S .S S .2 S .l 14 S .l S .S S .S 2 .1 24 M f 24 S .2 14 24 2*7 2 .7 S .l S .l S .2 14 S .l S .7 S .l S .2 S .l 14 1 -tS 14 S .S S .2 S .S 24 24 S .l S .l S .S 1 .2 S4 14 S4 S4 1 .2 S .S S .S M l S .l S .l S .S S .l S .S S .l S .S S .7 S .l 14 14 l.l S .S 14 14 14 S .l 1 .7 *-*• S4 S .l S .S S .2 S .l S .l S .S S .7 S .l 1 .2 14 l.l S4 14 14 1 .7 1 .7 14 14 M S 2-SS S-SS M S M f 1 -f S 2 -tS 4-SS M l 2 -S I M l 1 1 S .I M l 1114 M 7 1 1 S .I M 7 11S4 M 7 112.1 M 7 1114 1 1S .S 111.2 S .2 11S4 1 11.7 S4 117.1 M f 11S.2 s-st llt .S M f 121*1 1224 1 2S.7 INITIAL QUARTO* W 11 A y J Y F O R M . RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOWS G R O S S N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T I N C U R R EN T D O LLA R S (C is fiv iM A n sa) Raftf i f Omr£§) TERNINAL QUARTER 1-Si 2-S4 M 4 2-Si I.S M i S.S S.7 4-Si 1*7 s.s 4.2 INITIAL QUARTER 4-Si 1-S7 2-S7 M 7 4-S7 1-SS 2-SS M S BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 4-SS 1-S9 2-S9 S-S9 4-S9 1-91 2-91 S-91 4,194.7 4*2SS.S 4,297.1 1-S7 S.l 4.8 4.4 9.1 2-S7 5.5 4.4 4.9 S.S 7.5 S-S7 5.S 4.S 7.S s .s 7.4 7.4 4-S7 ♦♦2 7.1 7.4 S.2 7.S S.l S.7 1-SS 4.4 7.2 7.4 S.l 7.S S.l S.S 7.S 2-SS 4.4 7.S 7.4 S.l 7.9 l.l s.s S.l S.S MS 4.7 7.S 7.t S.S 7.S 7.9 s.s 7.S 7.S 7.4 4-SS i.S 7.4 7.5 s .s 7.S 7.9 s.s 7.S 7.S 7.5 7.7 1-S9 4.9 7.4 7.S 7.9 7.S 7.1 7.9 7.7 7.7 7.5 7.4 7.S 2-S9 4.S 7.2 7.4 7.7 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.4 7.S 7.1 7.1 4.7 S.l M l 4.7 7.1 7.2 7.5 7.S 7.S 7.S 7.1 7.1 4.7 4.S 4.1 s.s S.l 4-S9 4.1 4.S 1—f# 4.t 4.S 4.9 7.1 7.S 4.9 4.9 4.7 4.S 4.S 4.1 S.l S.4 S.2 S.S 4.7 2-91 4.4 4.7 4.S 7.S i.S 4.S 4.7 4.S 4.4 4.1 4.1 S.7 S.S S.2 S.2 S.9 S.l >-N 4.S 4.4 4.7 4.9 4.7 4.7 4.4 4.4 4.S 4.1 S.l 5.4 S.S S.2 S.S S.7 S.2 1-Si 2-S4 M 4 4-Si 4*591.4 4*471.4 4*551.7 4,447.4 4.7S5.S 4*SS1.4 4*917.9 I.N 9 .I s * is i.s »,174.9 S,2SS.i 5*2S9.S 5*575.4 S*44S.S S.S 5*514.4 4-91 ! ! 4-S7 1-SI 1 1-S7 2-S7 M 7 1-S9 2-S9 M l 4-S9 1-91 2-91 S-91 INITIAL « M R T R E- ESTIMATED PREPARE D «V R O C M L RESERVE SANK OF S T . LOUIS JANUARY 25* m l G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T IN 1 * 2 D O L L A R S ( C m p i i l e i A — — I R a n g o f C f c t if t ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-14 2-«« 2-Si -l.l S-S4 -I.S I.S 4-Si 1.4 1.4 M7 1.4 2.S 2-S7 2.1 S.l M7 2.S S.S 4-S7 S.l 1-SS S.S 4.1 2-SS s.s 4.1 S-SS s.s S.l 4-SS S.2 S.7 1-S9 S.2 S.7 2-S9 S.l S.S S-19 S.l S.4 4-S9 2.1 S.2 1-91 2.1 S.l 2-91 2.4 2.9 S-91 2.4 2.1 4-91 2.S 2.5 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS INITIAL QUARTER AlilUAL RATES Mi 4-Si 1-17 2-S7 S-S7 4-S7 1-SS 2-SS S-SS 4-SS 1-S9 2-S9 S-S9 4-S9 1-9# Ml S-M 2.S S.7 S.2 S.9 4.7 4.2 S.9 4.S 4.2 4.1 4.4 4.4 4.2 4.1 4.1 S.l S.4 S.4 S.2 S.l 2.9 2.4 S.l 4.1 4.S 4.S 4.2 S.9 S.7 S.4 S.S S.l S.l 2.7 S.l 4.7 4.4 4.1 4.1 S.l S.4 S.S S.2 2.9 2.1 2.S S.S 4.9 4.4 4.1 4.1 S.l S.S S.2 S.l 2.1 2.7 2.4 S.9 S.l 4.S 4.1 4.1 S.7 S.4 S.l S.l 2.7 2.4 2.2 S.l 4.4 S.S S.S S.4 S.2 S.l 2.7 2.4 2.S 2.S 1.9 S.4 S.l S.l S.2 2.9 2.7 2.S 2.2 2.1 2.1 1.4 2.7 2.7 S.l 2.7 2.S 2.1 2.1 l.l 1.1 1.4 2.7 S.2 2.7 2.4 2.1 1.9 1.7 1.7 I.S S.4 2.4 2.S 1.S I.S 1.4 I.S 1.1 1.4 1.7 1.2 I.S 1.2 1.2 1.7 1.7 l.l 1.2 l.l 1.1 1.4 I.S l.l l.l l.l I.S S*7I4.4 5,712.4 S*7SS.i 5,711.2 8*S2S.S S*SSS.9 5,921.7 S*97S.2 4,111.1 4*IS2.1 4*959.5 4*995.7 4*112.2 4*129.7 4*1SS.2 1.7 4*151.4 4*1SS.1 1.1 1.4 4*171.1 1.2 1.9 1.4 I.S -l.l -1.4 -2.1 4*147.4E 1-S4 2-S4 S-S4 4-14 1-S7 2-17 M7 4-S7 1-SS 2-SI S-SS 4-SS 1-19 2-19 S-S9 4-S9 1-91 2-91 S-91 IN ITIA L QUARTER E - ESTIMATED FREFARED «V FEDERAL RESERVE SANK OF ST* LOUIS JANUARY 21, m i 12 GROSS N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T RATIO SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES RATIO SCALE DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTEO T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 6 . 0 5.8 5.6 5.4 5.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 5.0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3.0 2.8 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 80URCE« PERC EN TA G ES ARE LA TEST PLO TTED « DATA ANNUAL R A T ES 4TH OF Q U A RTER CHANGE FO R ADVANCE P E R IO D S 1989 U .S . 1990 D EPA RTM EN T 1991 OF CO M M ERCE IN D IC A T E D . E S T IM A T E PR EPA R ED 13 B Y F ED E R A L R E S E R V E BA N K O F S T . L O U I S G E N E R A L P R I C E I N D E X * R A TIO SCALE R A T IO SCALE *** • « » IN MAT IM M . I N C M M C tM T * H N H . U .S . K f AXTWNT « r t t C U T A M t AW AMftAL JtATtt BF CMANtt F8ft PlftlBBS IUBICATO. CM NCM t LA TttT BATA PLBTTttt 4TN WAXTCI AtVANCC (STIMATI P ttP A Ä U »Y FtM JtAl K lU K V t IAMK 8F ST. I M I t IM P L IC IT P M C E D E F L A T O R F O R G R O S S N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T C C p f iw ilil A n n i R r tu 8f C lif g i) TERMINAL QUARTER IN ITIAL QUARTER H i H i H i H i H 7 H 7 H 7 1-08 2-88 S-88 im 4-88 l- 8 t 2 .» S -M 4 .1 S .B 4-84 1 .2 S .4 l.B 1-87 14 S .4 2 .i S .S M 7 S .S S .4 2 .B S .S S .I 118.8 S .B S .4 S .S S .S s .i S .l 2 .7 S .B 2 .8 2 .i 1 .7 h b s .o S .B 2 .7 2 .9 2 .8 2 .4 2 .2 2 .7 M » 5 .2 S .2 S .B S .2 S .l S .l 2 .f S .i 4 .4 S-88 S .S *♦4 S .2 S .4 S .4 S .4 S .4 4 .B 4 .4 4 .7 4-88 S .S S .S S .S S .S S .S S .i S .i 4 .1 4 .4 4 .7 4 .7 S .4 S .4 S .i S .i S .7 S .7 4 .1 4 .4 4 .4 4 .S S .f S .i S .4 S .i S .i S .7 S .7 4 .1 4 .S 4 .S 4 .2 S .f S .f S .i S .4 S .i S .i S .i S .7 S .9 4 .1 4 .1 S .f S .7 S .i H i 4 -8 f 1-fO 2 -W S -fB 4 -fB S .S S .S S4 S .7 S .7 S .i H i • It# S -fB 117.8 S .4 S .S 2 -fB 116.1 S .S 24» 1 -fB 11S.1 S-87 S .I f 4 -8 f 114.4 4-87 l- 8 f H H f 11S.2 i H H 7 S .i S .7 S .7 S .7 S .7 H i S .S S .i S .i S .7 S .7 a S .i S .7 S .7 S .8 S .i S .B S .8 S .B S .i S .B S .B S .i H i S .7 H i S .7 H 7 S .8 S .B H 7 s S .f S .f S .B H 7 118.S S .f 4 .B 4 .1 4 .1 S .9 H 7 I lf.I 4 .1 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 1 2 8 .i 4 .8 4 .2 4*2 4 .2 122.8 S .* 4 .1 4 .2 4 .1 12S.4 S .7 S .f 4 .1 124.4 S .7 S .f 4 .1 12S.8 S .S S .f 4 .1 4 .B 4 .B 4 .8 S .B 4 .1 4 .B S .f S .f S .B 1-88 2-88 S-88 4-88 l- 8 f 12Ì.B S .2 H f 128.0 S .B 1 2 f.S 4 .S 4 .8 4 .4 4 .7 4 .7 4 .S 4 .4 4 .2 S .7 4 .8 4 .8 S .7 S .2 2 .8 S -8 f 4 -8 f 2 -fB S -fB H B 1S1.B 1S2.2 1SS.1E IN ITIA L QUARTER E - ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS JANUARY 21» m i 14 P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T IO N E X P E N D IT U R E S I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S (C m ^ o m M j i m i l ]t n n i f C h ii| i) 1-Si M i M i 4-8i 1-87 2-87 M 7 4-88 1-8* 2-8* M * 4-87 1-88 2-88 M S SILLIONS OF pftj \ A X INITIAL QUARTER 4-8* ANNUAL KATES 1—*8 2-*8 S-*S 2-Si 4.1 2*7il*t S-M i.S **8 2*82i«0 4-Si 4.4 7** i*2 1-87 i.S 7*7 i*7 7*5 M7 7*1 8*2 7*7 8*4 9*4 S-87 7«i 4-87 7*8 7*S 7a 7.S 7*4 2»8t8«S 2»*1*«S 2»*87.2 S»6Sl.i •' - 1*7 S»S7*.l S»147.7 1-88 7*1 7*8 7*S 7*7 7*8 i*4 *♦2 2-M 7*1 7*7 7*4 7*7 7*7 7*S 4*7 8*S 7*4 M l 7*4 7*8 7*S 7*7 7*8 7*S 7*1 8*S 7*8 S»2S4.S 8.2 S»248.2 S»SS2«i 4-SS 7*S 7*8 7*4 7*8 7*f 7*i 7*1 8*2 7*t 8.2 8.1 M* 7*2 7*S * 7*S 7*4 7*S 7*2 4.* 7*S 7*1 7.S i.4 4*8 S»S71.7 S»42S.* 2-19 7*2 7*S 7*S 7*4 7*4 7*1 i*8 7*4 7*t i.t i.S S.7 i.i S-8* 7*2 7*4 7*2 7.S 7*1 7*1 4** 7*1 7*S i.9 i.i 4*1 i.t 7*0 4-8* 7*S 7*2 7*8 7*S 7*8 i*8 i*S 4*9 4*i i.4 i*l S.S S.S 4.t l-*S 7*t 7*2 7*1 7*1 7*1 4.* i*7 7*# i.S i.7 i.4 i*l i.4 i.4 4.8 8.2 S»484.S S»S18.S S»SS8.1 S»i22.7 2-*8 i*S 7*# i.S 4** 4*9 i*i i*4 i*7 i*4 i.S 4*1 S.7 S*t S.7 S.S 4.S S.* M l i*f 7*1 4.* 7*S 4** i*7 4*i i.S i.i iJ i.i i*S 4«S i.2 i.t 4.7 4.8 8*8 M l 4.7 4*9 i*7 i*8 i*7 i*S i*4 i*i i.S 4.2 i.t s*s S*t S.S S.i i.S S*2 S«* 1-Si 2-8i M i 4-8i 1-87 2-87 M 7 4-87 1-88 2-88 M S 4-88 l-8t 2-8* S-8* 4-8* S»i*S.4 S.S S»728.1E 1—*8 2-*8 s-*s INITIAL QUARTER E- E8TINATED SANK OF ST* LOUIS »V FEDERAL I 21» m i P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T IO N E X P E N D IT U R E S IN B C 2 D O L L A R S ( C t s ^ i v i M Am m éI R i M n f C f c m ^ 2-8i S.i S-8i 4.S S*4 4-84 S.7 S.S 1-87 S.S 2*7 1.4 8.7 2-87 S.S S*2 2.S 2.4 4.S 2*8 2.S 2.S 2.8 M7 S*4 4-87 2** 1-8* 2-8* S-8* 4-8* i-*8 2-*8 SILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES r * ! 1 TERMINAL INITIAL QUARTER QUARTER 1-84 2-84 S-8i 4-84 1-87 2-87 S-87 4-87 1-88 2-S8 2»4S2.4 2»444.4 2.477.8 2.2 2*482.2 2»S8*.* 2»SS4.4 2*SS4.2 1.* -8.4 1-88 S.4 S.4 S.S S.2 S.S S.4 S.2 4.* 2-88 S.S S.S S.S S.I S.i S.4 S.S 4.8 2*7 S-88 S.S S.S S.S S.2 S.i S.4 S.I 4.S S.I S.S 4-88 S*S S.S S.I S.2 S.i S.4 S.2 4.1 S.2 S.S S.S M* S.# S*8 2.7 2.8 S.I 2.* 2.4 S.2 2.S 2.2 I .i -S.S 2-8* 2** 2.8 2.4 2.7 2.* 2.7 2.4 2.* 2.1 2.S 1.S S.S I.S S-8* S*8 S.S 2.8 2.8 S.S 2.* 2.7 S.I 2.S 2.S 2.S 1.8 2.* 4.4 4-8* 2*8 2.7 2.S 2.S 2.7 2.S 2.S 2.4 2.8 1.* I .i 1.2 1.7 1.* -•.8 1-*S 2*7 2.4* 2.4 2.4 2.i 2.4 2.2 1.* 1.8 I.S 1.2 I.S 1.4 8.1 1*1 2-*8 2*S 2.4 2.2 2.S 2.4 2.2 2.S 2.2 1.7 I.i 1.4 I.S I.S I.S 8*2 8.7 8.2 S-*8 2*S 2.S» 2.S 2.S 2.4 2.2 2.1 2.S 1.8 1.7 1.S I.S 1.S 1.4 8.8 I.S 1.S 1.* 2.8 1.8 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.8 8.7 M i.s 8*8 8.2 -8.1 -8.2 -S.I 4 -M 1-87 4-*8 2*2 2.1 1 -Si 2 -M 2.8 t- M 247 1.7 S-87 2.S M 7 2*S74«8 H t 2»S*4*1 2-M 2*414.4 H I IN ITIA L QUARTER ESTIMATED 2*iS8.8 4 -M 2»iS4.7 1-W 2*44S.S 2^» 2*47S.S M f 2»ü*.* 4-8* 2«i77.S 1-*S 2*i78.8 2.7 2-*8 2»i*i.S S-*8 2*i7S.8E G R O S S P R IV A T E D O M E S T IC IN V E S T M E N T I N C U R R E N T D O L L A R S A m u I R u t s o f C h t if t ) ÜCmÊfwnàià IN ITIA L QUARTER TERMINAI. 2-Q i 4 -«i M i -14*7 M i - 1 1 .S - » .7 M i -i.S -2.» M7 -1*1 4.1 9.2 1S.S M7 •♦7 4.9 S.7 12.9 M7 1*7 M7 4.7 S.4 MS S.S 4.1 MS S.9 S-SS 4*4 MS 1-07 M 7 M 7 4-17 l« ü M l M l M l l« W H > M t 1-W 2-90 M l BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES iS 7 .2 <47*7 1*7 M I4 474.7 7*9 4S9.S i9S.i 11.4 14.S 12.9 1S.4 S2.S 741.4 7.7 11.S —4.4 S.2 9.S 7.S 4.1 S.4 9.1 S.l S.2 10.1 1.2 7.S S.7 9.9 S.i S.7 11.9 4.4 11.2 11.9 S.S S.S i.i 7.S S.9 S.S 4.S I.l S.4 1.4 -9.1 M9 4*1 ».9 7.1 7.9 i.7 i.S 7.S S.I S.i 4.S 1.1 12.4 M9 4*1 S.7 i.l 7.S i.S i.l 4.9 S.l S.2 4.1 1.9 S.l S.7 S-S9 S.7 S.2 i.2 4.7 S.i S.4 4.1 2.4 4.2 S.2 I.S S.l 1.4 -I.S 77».I M9 8.1 4.S S.2 S.S 4.4 4.1 4.S 1.4 2.4 I.S -I.S 2.1 -1.2 -S.i - i . i 7i2.7 I.l 729.2 9.S 744.1 74S.4 747.S 749.7 77i.7 -2.9 -S .l -7.2 -7.9 MS 2.2 S.S 4.2 4.4 S.4 S.I I.S 1.2 I .l M l 2.» S.7 4.S 4.4 S.i S.S S.S 1.9 I.S 1.9 -I.S 1.1 - I . l -2.S -2.9 - I . l i.S S-90 2.4 S.S 4.1 4.S S.4 S.I S.2 1.9 1.7 O.S -1.4 1.9 —1.9 -1.1 -2.1 -I.S S.4 4-91 1.9 1.9 2.S 2.4 1.4 1.1 1.1 -1.2 -I.S -1.7 -S.l -2.8 -4.2 -S.S —i.4 -4.4 -S.9 -11.» -22.1 1-Si 2-Si S-Si 4-S4 1-S7 M 7 M7 4-S7 M S -l.i 2-SS s-ss 4-SS 1-S9 M 9 M9 747.2 7S9.I 7S9.7 1.4 714.16 4-S9 1-91 2-91 S-91 INITIAL QUARTER E- ESTIMATED BY FEDERAL RESERVE DANK OF ST« LOUIS 2S* 1991 DOMESTIC G R O SS P R IV A TE I N V E S T M E N T IN M 2 D O L L A R S ( Ç M B f t S B t lé AmMMI R tftff i f d n i ^ TERMINAL QUARTER M4 BILLIONS OF INITIAL QUARTER 2-Si S-Si 4-Si M7 M7 M7 4-S7 M S ANNUAL RATES 2-SS S-SS 4-SS 1-S9 2-S9 S-S9 4-S9 1-91 2-91 S-91 2-Si -1S.S 442.8 M i 42».1 -14.» -ll.S 4-Si -11.S -S.S -i.2 ilS.2 M7 -4.4 1.» i.4 20.i M7 -2.1 2«i 7.S 14.1 9.2 S-S7 -1.1 2.9 i.S i.i 4-S7 2.4 i.i ll.S MS 1.4 4.9 7.7 1S.7 11.1 444.7 4S9.1 4.1 MS.7 70i.i 14.9 1S.I 14.9 24.9 S.S S.l 11.1 -4.4 i9S«4 2-SS 1.9 4.1 7.1 9.» 7.4 7.1 S.l -1.4 S.9 S-SS 2.7 S.4 7.» 9.7 7.9 7.7 S.i 7.2 11.» 4-SS 1.1 S.S 4.9 4.4 4.» S.7 S.i -1.» -1.4 -2.» -14.1 S.l 71». 1 728.1 i94.2 M9 2.1 4.1 S.i 7.S ».» 4.9 S.l 1.2 2.7 2.S -1.7 12.» 2-S9 1.9 S.S ».2 4.4 ».1 4.» 4.» 1.2 2.4 2.1 -1.7 4.7 1.2 S-S9 1.9 S.7 4.9 i.S 4.7 4.2 4.2 I.S 2.S 1.9 - I . l ».1 1.» 4-S9 I.S 2.9 4.1 4.S S.» S.l 2.S 1.2 1.9 1.4 -1.» 1.9 -1.» -2.S -7.1 717.1 719.1 I.S 722.8 1-91 1.9 2.S S.S 4.1 2.S 2.S 2.1 -1.4 1.2 -1.4 -2.1 1.» -2.8 -S.4 -».9 -4.7 2-91 I.S 2.2 S.l S.S 2.4 2.1 1.9 -I.S I .l -I.S -I.S 1.4 -I.S -2.4 -4.1 -2.4 S-91 1.7 1.9 2.S S.4 2.S 1.7 1.» -1.» - I . l -1.» -I.S I .l 4-90 -1.4 1.7 1.4 1.9 1.7 1.2 - I . l M4 2-Si S-Si 4-Si M7 MS 711.7 I.l -1.9 -2.» -8.» -2.8 -1.1 -2.1 -2.1 -1.9 -2.4 -S.I -2.4 -4.4 -».8 2-S7 S-S7 M 7 719.1 -4.4 -6.5 -7.1 -11.» -IS .2 711.7 497.1 442.IE 2-SS S-SS 4-SS 1-S9 2-S9 S-S9 4-S9 1-91 2-91 S-9S IN ITIA L QIMRTER E - ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LOUIS JANUARY 2S» 1991 16 G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S ER V IC E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S ( C o t t p o t t M A u m a ) Rates o f Cfcaage) TERMINAL QUARTER INITIAL QUART» 1-04 2-04 5-06 4-04 1-07 2-07 5-07 « -« 7 1-OS 2-00 5-00 4-00 1 -0» 2*09 5-09 4-09 1-90 2-90 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 5-90 9 »2 2-04 069*5 000. s 7*2 »*2 4-04 4*1 4*4 4 .0 1-07 4*4 5.4 5 .4 7*2 2-07 5 .4 4*0 4*4 1*0 2*0 1-07 4*0 B*4 5 .5 4*0 5.4 4-07 1.9 904*9 910.7 920.9 0.1 942.0 4.0 5.5 1 .4 4.0 5.4 7.0 1.9 5 .2 4 .4 4 .5 4 .7 4 .0 4*4 2 .7 - 0 .5 I .S 4 .0 4 .0 4 .9 4 .0 4 .9 S .9 2 .9 4 .7 4 .2 4 .1 4 .1 S .4 S .0 2 .7 1 .7 2 .0 4*1 5*0 5 .0 4 .1 5 .9 4 .4 4 .1 4 .2 0 .5 2 0.0 940.9 955.4 4 .5 955.0 1 *000.0 1*000.5 1-09 5*9 5 .5 5 .4 5 .0 5 .4 4 .0 5 .7 5 .4 7 .2 11.0 5 .4 2-09 5 .0 5 .4 5 .4 5 .0 5 .4 4 .0 5 .7 5 .4 4 .9 9 .7 4 .4 5 .0 5-09 5 .4 5 .5 5 .5 5 .4 5 .2 5 .5 5 .2 5 .1 4 .1 7 .0 5 .7 5 .9 2 .0 4-09 5 .4 5 .4 5 .4 5 .5 5 .5 5 .4 5 .5 5 .2 4 .1 7 .4 4 .5 4 .4 4 .1 4 .2 1-90 5 .9 5 .7 5 .7 5 .9 5 .0 4 .0 5 .0 5 .0 4 .4 0 .0 5 .4 4 .1 4 .2 0 .4 10.7 2-90 5 .9 5 .7 5 .0 5 .9 5 .0 4 .1 5 .9 5 .9 4 .4 7 .7 5 .7 4 .1 4 .2 7 .7 0 .4 4 .2 1-90 5 .9 5 .0 5 .0 5 .9 5 .0 4 .1 5 .9 5 .9 4 .4 7 .5 5 .0 4 .1 4 .2 7 .5 7 .7 4 .2 4 .2 4-90 4 .2 4 .1 4 .1 4 .2 4 .2 4 .4 4 .5 4 .5 7 .0 7 .9 4 .4 4 .9 7 .0 0 .1 0 .4 7 .9 0 .7 11.5 1-04 2-04 5-04 4-04 1-07 2-07 5-07 4-07 1-00 5-00 4-00 1-09 2-09 5-09 4-0 9 1-90 2-90 5-90 2-00 1*022.7 1*027.0 1*045.5 1*070.1 1*004.4 1*102.0 1*152.7E INITIAL QUARTER ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS JANUARY 25* 1991 G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V I C E S I N 1982 D O L L A R S ( C m m u M A m m I R it e s o f C k o ig e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-04 2-04 5-04 4-04 1-07 2-07 5-07 4-07 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-00 2-00 5-00 4-00 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1-09 2-09 5-09 4-09 1-90 2-90 5-90 741.2 2-04 9 .5 5-04 5 .0 2 .1 4-04 5 .0 5 .9 5 .0 745.2 774.0 1-07 4 .2 2 .5 2 .0 -0 .2 2-07 2 .7 1.1 0 .7 -1 .7 - S .2 5-07 5 .2 2 .0 1 .9 0 .7 1.1 5 .5 4-07 1 .4 2 .4 2 .7 2 .0 2 .7 5*7 4 .0 1-00 1 .9 0 .0 0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .4 0 .5 -1 .9 -9 .2 2-00 2 .0 1.1 1 .0 0 .2 0 .5 1 .2 - 0 .2 -5 .2 s .s 5-00 1 .4 0 .4 0 .4 -0 .4 -0 .4 0 .2 - 1 .1 - S .4 - o .s 4-00 2 .7 2 .0 2 .0 1 .5 1 .0 2 .4 2 .1 1.1 4 .0 5 .5 15.7 1-09 2 .2 1 .5 1 .4 1 .0 1.1 1 .7 1.1 0 .2 2 .7 2*5 5 .0 2-09 2 .5 1.7 1 .7 l.S 1 .4 2 .0 1 .5 0 .0 S .0 2*9 5 .2 o .s 4 .0 5-09 2 .0 1 .4 l.S 0 .9 1 .0 1 .5 1 .0 0 .4 2 .0 1 .0 S .2 -0 .4 0 .0 - 2 .4 4-09 2 .0 1 .5 1 .5 1 .1 1 .2 1 .7 l.S 0 .7 2 .2 2 .0 S .2 O.S 1.5 O .S 775.7 749.5 779.0 791.5 772.4 770.7 - S .0 7 7 1.2 799.9 79S .2 - S .S 0 0 1 .0 794.2 0 0 2 .2 S .0 0 0 7 .9 1-90 2 .1 1 .4 1 .4 1 .2 1 .4 1 .0 1 .4 0 .9 2 .S 2 .1 S .l 0 .0 1 .9 1 .2 S .0 2 .9 2-90 2 .1 1 .9 1 .9 1 .4 1 .7 2 .1 1 .9 1 .4 2 .7 2 .4 S .4 1 .7 2 .7 2 .4 4 .0 4 .5 5-90 2 .5 1 .0 1 .0 1 .4 1 .7 2 .1 1 .0 1 .4 2 .4 2 .5 S .S 1 .4 2 .5 2 .2 S .S S .4 S .7 1 .2 4-90 2 .4 2 .0 2 .0 1 .0 1 .9 2 .S 2 .0 1 .7 2 .0 2 .7 S .5 2 .0 2 .0 2*4 S .4 S .0 4 .1 5 .0 4 .9 l- * 4 2-04 5-04 4-04 1-07 2-07 5-07 4-07 1-00 2-00 5-00 4-00 1-09 2-0 9 5-09 4-0 9 1-90 2-9 0 5-90 4 .2 0 2 0 .2 0 2 2 .7 0 5 2 .5 E IN ITIAL QUARTER E - ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. LOUIS JANUARY 25* 1991 17 D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L IN C O M E I N (C M fo n M C U R R EN T D O LLA R S A aam i R au s «f C hu g e) BILLIONS OF TERMINAL QUARTER 144 244 < -4i 147 247 M 7 <47 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 140 M t M l 4 - tt DOLLARS i- W M 9 849 449 1-90 _________________________ 2-90 S-M 2-K »♦>_____________________________________________________ m 4.4 2*4____________ ____________________ ____________ 8*024.8 444 4 .7 8 .B 5 .8 8*848.4 147 4 .1 4 .0 7 .B 1 0.4 247 4 .5 4 .0 4 .5 4 .1 -1 .0 547 S .4 B .4 4 .2 4 .5 4 .4 11.4 447 4 .5 4 .5 7 .8 7 .B 7 .0 11.4 11*9 14S 4 .9 4 .9 7*7 0 .2 7 .4 10.9 10.7 9 .4 8*189.8 8*125.7 8*211.1 8*882.8 8*878.4 24B 4 .9 840 7 .2 7 .S 7 .9 0 .8 7 .9 10.0 9 .4 B .9 8 .4 8*459.4 9 .7 44B 7 .2 7 .2 7 .B B .l 7 .0 9 .4 9.1 B .4 8 .0 8 .8 4 .9 149 7 .4 7 .4 B .O 0 .8 B.O 9 .5 9.1 B .4 8 .4 8 .7 8 .2 9 .4 249 7 .1 7 .1 7 .4 7 .B 7 .5 • .8 B .4 7 .8 7 .5 7 .5 4 .8 4 .7 8 .9 549 4 .9 7>0 7 .4 7 .4 7 .5 B .5 B.O 7 .4 7.1 7 .0 4 .8 4 .2 4 .5 5 .1 449 4 .9 4 .9 7 .5 7 .4 7 .2 B .l 7 .8 7 .8 4 .9 4 .9 4 .8 4 .2 5 .1 5 .4 4 .1 1-9S 7 .1 7 .1 7 .4 7 .4 7 .4 B .5 7 .9 7 .5 7 .8 7 .8 4 .8 4 .8 4 .2 4 .9 7 .9 9 .4 2-90 4 .9 4*9 7 .2 7 .8 7.1 7 .9 7 .4 7 .2 4 .9 4 .8 4 .4 4 .4 5 .7 4 .2 4 .5 4 .7 4 .0 5-90 4 .7 4«B 7 .0 7 .2 4 .9 7 .4 7 .8 4 .9 4 .7 4 .4 4 .2 4 .1 5 .5 5*8 4 .0 4 .0 4 .2 4 .5 4-90 4 .4 4 .4 4 .B 4 .9 4 .7 7 .5 7 .0 4*4 4 .8 4*2 5 .9 5 .7 5 .2 5 .4 5 .5 5 .8 8 .9 8 .9 8 .2 144 244 544 444 147 247 847 447 14B 248 848 448 149 249 849 449 1-98 2-98 8-98 8*520.1 8*578.9 8*441.7 8*497.8 8*748.4 8*799.4 8*887.7 8*925.7 8*949.1 4*080.9C IN IT IA L QUARTER * » ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST* LO U IS JANUARY 2 6 . 1991 D I S P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L I N C O M E IN M 2 D O L L A R S ( C m p o h M A m a l Ratos i f O o o g e ) TERMINAL QUARTER 144 244 844 444 147 247 847 447 IN IT IA L QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 14S 24B M t 44B B IL L IO N S OF DOLLARS 149 249 849 449 1-9« 2-9« 5-90 244 4 .2 844 2 .2 -1 .7 444 1 .9 -8 .2 1*4 147 2 .8 1 .1 2 .5 8 .4 247 8 .5 -0 .0 -8 .4 -1 .5 -4 .8 847 1 .5 8 .4 1 .2 1 .2 8 .8 447 2 .4 1 .7 2 .4 2 .7 2 .4 7.1 7 .5 148 8 .8 2 .5 8 .2 8 .4 8 .4 7 .1 7 .4 7 .8 248 2 .9 2 .5 8 .2 8 .5 8 .4 4 .8 5 .8 5 .8 2 .7 848 8 .1 2 .8 8 .4 8 .7 8 .7 5 .0 5 .4 4 .9 8 .8 4 .9 448 8 .0 2 .7 8 .2 8 .5 8 .5 5 .2 4 .9 4*8 8 .8 8 .4 2 .5 149 8 .1 2 .9 8 .8 8 .4 8 .4 5 .1 4 .8 4 .8 8 .5 8 .0 5 .5 4 .2 249 2 .8 2 .5 2 .9 8 .1 8 .8 4 .8 8 .9 8 .8 2 .4 2 .5 1 .7 1 .5 -1 .2 849 2 .8 2 .5 2 .9 8 .1 8 .8 4 .1 8 .8 8 .2 2 .4 2 .4 2 .8 1 .9 0 .0 449 2 .7 2 .5 2 .8 2 .9 2 .8 8 .0 8 .5 8 .8 2 .4 2 .4 1 .0 1 .7 0 .9 2 .8 1 .2 1-90 2 .7 2 .5 2 .8 2 .9 2 .8 8 .7 8 .4 2 .9 2 .4 2 .4 2 .8 1 .9 1 .8 2 .2 1 .9 2-98 2 .5 2 .8 2 .4 2 .7 2 .4 8 .4 8 .1 2 .7 2 .2 2 .1 1.7 1 .4 1.1 1 .7 1 .8 1 .4 0 .8 8-98 2 .4 2 .1 2 .4 2 .5 2 .4 8 .1 2 .8 2 .4 1.9 1 .0 1*4 1 .8 8 .8 1 .2 8 .0 0 .7 4 .2 4 .7 4-90 2 .0 1 .8 2 .8 2 .1 2 .0 2 .4 2 .8 1.9 1.4 1.2 0 .8 8 .7 8 .2 8 .4 4 .1 4 .4 -1 .8 - 2 .1 - 8 .4 144 244 844 444 147 247 847 447 140 240 848 448 149 249 849 449 1-90 2-90 8-90 2*440.4 2*487.8 2*444.2 2*449.5 2*424.8 4 .7 2*449.2 2*717.9 2*745.9 2*704.4 2*010.0 2*088.9 2*048.5 2*054.9 2*074.8 2 .7 2*008.2 2*900.9 2 .5 2*982.0 2*090.0 2*071*4E IN ITIA L QUARTER C - ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T. LOUIS JANUARY 25* 1991 18 C O R P O R A T E P R O F IT S A F T E R T A X E S ( T w i n — l i l A m m I R a te s O u p ) M WWONAL QUARTER 4-M INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-M 2-«« S-M *-+* l-*7 M J M 7 «-*7 1-M M t H t «-M 1-46 -5 1 .4 M 6 - 8 2 .4 -5 .9 M 6 -It. 6 5 .4 10.0 4-04 - 1 0 .5 f.7 10.4 10.0 1-67 -0 .2 I f .4 2 f .S 8 5 .8 5 4 .0 H U IO N S OF DOLLARS »-«♦ M » 111.2 1 1 5 .f 121.0 184.0 5*4 2 1 .t 81 .4 8 4.4 4 4 .2 8 0 .7 8-07 t a 2 8 .5 80 .4 8 8 .7 8 f .1 8 2 .2 2 4 .0 +*7 o .o 2 1 .t 2 4 .2 2 7 .f 80 .2 2 8 .2 14.0 4 .f 1 -M 11*2 2 5 .5 2 0.1 2 f.f 8 2 .2 2 7 .8 2 8 .7 22 .4 4 0 .4 M l 11.9 2 2 .7 2 4 .0 2 0 .2 2 f .0 2 5 .4 2 2 .8 21.1 2 0 .f 10.1 M t 11.5 2 1 .2 2 4 .5 22 .4 I f .8 17.7 2 1 .4 18.1 0 .8 M t ll.t 2 0 .4 2 5 .0 2 1 .8 10.7 2 0 .0 13.0 11.7 1-O f I t .4 10.5 2 0 .7 2 1 .0 21*8 17.7 15.0 18.2 14.5 O .t 5»f M 9 7 .4 14.2 14.1 15.9 15.4 12.0 f .O 4 .0 4 .7 1.0 -2 .f 2 .2 - 8 .1 —6 . f - 1 0 .4 - 1 7 .4 - 2 8 .2 - 2 1 .5 2 .7 - l.t - 4 .0 - 7 . 2 -1 2 .1 - 1 4 .8 - l.t M 9 5 .2 5 .1 2 -tt 1 1 2 .f 2-67 M 9 M » «-•* t-M 11.2 lO .f 2 4 .4 2 8 .7 2 5 .5 2 4 .8 12.4 12.2 12.2 11.0 11.4 11.2 oa 7 .f 144.8 5 .1 5 .8 155.0 17.2 2 .7 8 .2 157.4 171*4 I T O .f 102.5 109.1 15.8 - 5 .0 104.7 - 4 .8 - 1 5 .5 - 2 4 . f 178.0 4 .7 148.4 144.8 -0 .4 4 .0 l.f 147.1 1-90 5 .1 10.8 11.5 11.0 10.4 7 .4 5 .0 8 .1 2 .4 -1 .8 - 5 .7 —f .4 - 1 0 .5 - 5 .1 4 .8 2 -fO 4 .7 9 .5 10.4 10.1 9 .5 4 .4 4 .8 2 .5 2 .1 - 1 .4 -8 .4 - 5 .2 -0 .8 - O .f -4 .4 2 .0 -0 .2 -2 .4 4 .1 10.0 1 1 .f 11 .5 11.1 0*5 4 .5 5 .0 4 .0 1.0 0 .1 -O .f -8 .0 -2 .4 2 .4 f .7 10 .4 15 .8 84.1 4-05 1-04 2-04 8-04 4-04 1-07 2-07 8-07 4-07 1-00 2-00 8-00 4-00 H f 2-0 9 4 -0 9 l- f0 2 -fO 1-90 M 9 144.1 17f .4 INITIAL QUARTER HIP AMD BY RKML W K M SANK OF ST. LOUIS JANUARY » , IMI HISTORICAL SOURCES OF RATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA Estimates for the series in the regular quarterly presentation of NIPA tables for 1987-90:11 are published in the July 1990 Survey of Current Business. Data for 1983, 1984, 1985 and 1986 are published in the July 1986, July 1987, July 1988 and July 1989 Survey of Current Business. respectively. Estimates for NIPA series for 1929-82 are published in The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States. 1929-82:__ Statistical Iflfelftg. For further information and prices, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 19 INVENTORIES COMPARED WITH MONTHLY SALES M A N UFACTURING AND TRADE SEASONALLY AOJUSTEO 1 .7 2 72 1 .6 8 68 1 .6 4 64 1 .6 0 60 1 .5 6 56 52 1 .5 2 I.SO 1 .4 8 48 1 .4 4 44 1 .4 0 40 1 .3 6 36 1977 1 9 7 8 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 SOURCE« U.S.DEPARTMENT OF CONNERCE * BEGINNING IN 19G2, INVENTORY DATA REFLECT CHANGES IN ESTIMATION PROCEDURES. SHADEO AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BUSINESS RECESSIONS. LATEST DATA PLOTTED« NOVEMBER PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESERVE BANK OF S T . LO U IS 2 0
@FedFRASER