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AUGUST 1996

N ational
Economic

Trends
Why Hasn’t Duration of
Unemployment Fallen?
The average duration of unemployment rises during
recessions and usually starts to fall shortly after an
economic expansion begins. The lower line in the
chart shows the average duration of civilian unem­
ployment from the first quarter of 1967 to the second
quarter of 1996. The period since the 1990-91 recession
is different in two ways. First, the average time spent
unemployed continued to rise several quarters after
the end of the last recession. Second, average duration
has not developed a clear downward trend as in previous
expansions. (Median duration shows a similar pattern.)
The average duration of unemployment was over
17 weeks during the second quarter of this year, higher
than all but the period following the 1981-82 recession.
This is troubling because studies suggest firms are more
likely to hire a recently unemployed individual than
one who has been unemployed for a long period of time.
One explanatory factor may be the unusually
long delay before the economy began the rapid job
creation necessary to reduce the number of individ­
uals who have been unemployed for a long time.
Despite fairly robust job growth since 1992,
the average duration of unemployment remains
stubbornly high.
Recent incidents of “downsizing” may be another
possible cause of the continued high average dura­
tion of unemployment. Unlike temporary layoffs,
the downsizing created a large number of unem­
ployed individuals who did not expect to be recalled
when the economic situation improves. The per­
manence of these job losses is important because
studies indicate that the average duration of unem­
ployment for an individual expecting a job recall is

usually more than 40 percent shorter than an individ­
ual who is not expecting a recall. A firm rehiring a
laid-off individual requires little information about the
worker, and the worker requires little information
about the firm. In contrast, an individual searching
for a new job requires information about the firm and
vice versa, all requiring a longer and more intensive
search. So a shift in the composition of unemployed
to permanent job losers who require more intensive
and often longer job searches will increase the aver­
age duration of unemployment.
The top line in the chart shows the fraction of job
losers not on temporary layoff—permanent job losers
and individuals completing temporary assignments—as
a percentage of total civilian unemployment. It shows
that the fraction of job losers not expecting recall con­
tinued to grow for several quarters after the end of the
1990-91 recession, reaching historically high levels
that persisted for over two years. However, the per­
manence of recent job losses also explains little of the
high and persistent average duration of unemployment.
The answer still awaits.
—by Peter Yoo
Average Duration off Unemployment and
Jo b Losers Not Expecting Recall As Percent off Unemployment

Views expressed do not necessarily reflect official positions o f the Federal Reserve System

National Economic Trends is published monthly by the Research Division o f the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. For more information on data, please
call (314) 444-8573. Single-copy subscriptions are available free o f charge by writing Public Affairs Office, Federal Reserve Bank o f St. Louis, Post Office
Box 442, St. Louis, MO 63166-0442 or by calling (314) 444-8808 or (314) 444-8809. Information in this publication is also included in the Federal Reserve

Economic Data (FRED)
http://fraser.stlouisfed.org/ electronic bulletin board at (314) 621-1824 or internet World Wide Web server at http://www.sds.frb.org/fred.

Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Table of Contents
Page
3-4
5-6
7-8
9
10
11
12-13
14
15
16-17
18-21
22
23
24
25-27

Nominal and Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)
Price Deflators
Consumer and Producer Prices
Employment Costs
Productivity and Unit Labor Cost
Industrial Production
Employment and Unemployment
Real Personal Income
Retail Sales
Inventories and Final Sales
Components of Real GDP
U.S. International Transactions
Gross Saving and Investment
Corporate Profits and Cash Flow
Government Budget Data

How to Use the Triangles in Th is Publication
This publication makes extensive use of “triangles” to present compound annual rates of change over various periods.
Consider the simple, abbreviated triangle below for quarterly Real Gross Domestic Product from the first quarter of
1994 to the fourth quarter of 1995. From this triangle, the reader can obtain rates of change from any date on the top
row to any date along the left column; actual dollar figures for the periods in the left-most column are shown in the
right-most column. In our example, the compound annual rate of growth from 11/1994 to III/1995 can be found at the
intersection of the 11/1994 column and the III/1995 row, a 2.3 percent rate; similarly, the annual rate of change from
1/1994 to IV/1995 is 2.4 percent. Reading down the diagonal gives the growth rate from one quarter to the next.

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

.

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

Initial Quarter
2-94
3-94
4-94
1-95
2-95
3-95
4-95




1-94
4.8
4.2
3.8
3.0
2.5
2.7
2.4

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95
- V ir

3.6
3.4
2.4
1.9
2.3
2.0

3.2
1.9
1.4
1.9
1.6

0.6
0.5
1.5
1.3

2

0.5
2.0
1.5

3.6
2.0

0.5

6,581.5
6,639.5
6.691.3
6,701.6
6,709.4
6,768.3
6,776.5

Gross Domestic Product
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Real GDP is chain-weight quantity index scaled to 1992 dollars.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94

Annual Rates
4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

$

4-91

3.6

1-92

5.9

8.2

2-92

5,7

6.7

6,002.3
6,121.8
*

5.3

3-92

5.4

60

50

46

4-92

5.8

6.3

5.7

5.9

7.3

1-93

5.4

5.8

5.2

5.2

5.5

3.8

2-93

5.2

5.5

5,0

4.9

5.0

3.9

6*3012
6,271.7

✓—

6,383.0
6,442.6

4.0

6,506.2

3-93

5.1

5.3

4.9

4.8

4.8

4.0

4.1

4.3

4-93

5-3

5.6

5J2

filili

4.8

94

5,7

1-94

52

5.3

4.9

5.2

5.6

6.2

5.3

5-4

5.2
5.4

5.5

5.9

6.5

6.1

6.9

5.6

5.9

6.4

6.1

6.5

6.1

MM

5,8

6,1

59

61

5

5.3

5.5

5.8

5.5

5.5

5.0

4.5

mm

5.2
5.3

5.4

5.1

5.0

4

4.1

5.4

5.2

5.2

4.8

5.1

6,574.4

,„

7.1

5.3

55

5.2
52

2-94
3-94

I- 5*5
5.5
A U ■ 54J
JC L ■
■
■

5.7

5.4

57

55

5.5

5.5
5.6

Wmm...

5,7

5.4

5.5

5.6

1-95

5.5

5.3

53

5.4

5.3
5.2

, 5.2 : 5.4
5.3
54

5.1
5.2

5.1
5.2

5-2
5.2

5.0
5.1

_ 5.2

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

4.9
49
6,0 l l l l p

4.8 m
i
49
4.8

49

50

4,9

5.0

5.0

5.1

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

,

2-95
3-95

5.4

4-95
1-96

5.1

5.1

4.9

2*6

S,1

5.2

5.0

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

Second quarter data are advance estimates.
Revised FRASER
Digitized for from first quarter 1993 to the present.


5.2

6,776.0

i
4.8

6,688.6
6,690.5
6,993.1

_ , W«

4.5

. jt

4.1

7,149.8

3.9

3.1
4.5

6.0

3.8

4.3

¡ ¡ B ill

4.4

7,063.2
3.8

4.1

3.9

4.1

7,309.8

7,350.6

2.3

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3.2

4.2

4SL
4-93

4.7

|p j|||

5,2

64

4-95

1-96

3-95

7,426.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5,1996

.

7,536,1

Real Gross Domestic Product
Percent Change From Previous Year

Trend is ten-year moving average of chain-weight (1992 dollar) growth rate. The fixed-weight trend
(not shown) differs only slightly.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Gross Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Billions of Chained
Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
6,104.4

1.0

4-91
1-92

2.8

4.7

2-92

2.7

3.6

6,175.3
6,214.2

2,5

6,260.9

3-92

2.8

3.4

2.8

3.0

4-92

3.1

3.7

3.3

3.7

4.3

1-93

2.6

2.9

2.4

2.4

2.1

6,327.3
-0.1

6,326.4
6,356.5

2-93

2.5

2.7

2.3

2.3

2.0

0.9

1.9

3-93

2.5

2.7

2.3

2.3

2.1

1.4

2.1

2.3

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.2

3.0

3.6

6,393.4
4.8

6,469.1

4-93

2.7

1-94

2.7

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.3

2.9

3.2

3.6

2.5

2-94
3-94

2,9

3.1

2.9

3.0

2.9

2.7

3,3

3.6

4.1

3.7

5.0

3.0

3.1

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.8

3.3

3.6

3.9

36

42

3.5

4-94

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.9

3,3

3.5

3.7

3,5

3.8

3.3

3,0

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.9

3.1

3.2

2.9

3.0

2.3

1.7

0.4

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.7

2.8

2.8

1.4

0.6

0.7

2.0

1.6

2.3

3.8

1.6

1.3

1.6

2.0

1-95

2.8

3.1
2.9

2-95

2.6

2.8

6,508.5
:

3-95

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.8

2.9

3.0

2.5 It 2.5 : 1,9
2.7
2.7
2.3

4-95

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

1.9

1-96

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.3

2.0

2-96

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.6

- 2.7

2.7

2.5

2.5 : &

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

Second quarter data are advance estimates.

 quarter 1993 to the present.
Revised from first


1i

2-94

6,587.6
6,644.9

-/-V' '

6,693.9
6,701.0
6,713.5
6,776.4
6,780.7

0.3

1.7

1.4

1.7

2.0

1.1

2.0

! 2.0

1.9

2.2

2.6

2.1

3.1

4.2

6,814.3

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

6,885.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5,1996

GDP Chain Price Index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

percent

Percent

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

GDP Chain Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

4-91

2.9
2,9

3.1

2.6

2.6

2.2

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.2

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.7

3.2

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.9

3.0

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

3.6

2-93

4-94

2.8

1-93

3-94

1.6

4-92

1992=100
2-94

2,9

3-92

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

3.3

2-92

2-93

2.5

1-92

1-93

98.3
99.1
99.8
100.2
100.9
101.8
2.4

102.4

3-93

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.0

1.6

4-93

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.1

2.0

2.4

1-94

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.3

2.2

2.5

2.7

2-94
3-94

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.4

22

2.3

2.3

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.2

2.1
2.2

2.3

23

21

2.3

4-94

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

22

2.3

2.3

22

2.3

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.2
2.4

2.5

2.5

25

2.7

2.9

3.4

2.5

2.5
2.5

2.5
2.5

2.4
2.4

2.4

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.6
2.5

2.7

2.4

2.5
2.5

2.5

2.5

2.4
2.4

2.6

2.9
2.7

2.3
2.3

2.3

102.8
103.4
104.1
I p jiiiy

1.9

104.6
105.2

2.3

105.8
106.7

1-95

2.5

2-95
3-95

2.5
2.5

2.5
2.5

4-95

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2-4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.4

2S

2.1

2.1

1.9

1-96

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.2

2.1

2.0

2.2

2-96

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.4

2-4

23

2.4

2.4

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

107.3
107.9
h

Second quarter data are advance estimates.

Revised from first quarter 1993 to the present.



5

. i J'W'i'iW'/SíSKW

108.4
109.0
109.6
1-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5,1996

G DP Fixed-Weight Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

3-93

4-93

1992=100

First quarter data are final estimates.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5,1996

Personal Consumption Expenditure Chain Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

1992=100
2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

3.8

4*91
1-92

3.7

3.7

2-92

3.6

3.5

33

3-92

3.3

31

2.9

2.4

4-92
1-93

3$
32

3,2
3.1

3,0
2.9

2.8
28

3.2
30

28

2-93

HÜÜ

3.0

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.8

98.9
' 90.7
100.3
101.1
101.8
102.5

2.9

28

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.2

20

1.2

493

m

2.8

2.6 ; 2.5

2.5

2.4

■lit

2.0

1-94

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.3

2.1

2.5

2*94

2.8

2.7

26

2S '

2M

2.4

2.1

2$

3-94

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.6

25

£3
24

2.3

2.6

26

2.7

3.1

4*94

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

tA

2.3

2.6

2.6

2.7

2.5

2.6

23

23

2.6

2.7

23

2.7

3-93

102.8
2.8

. *
2.3

104.1

llü t

104.7
105.5

2,3

106.1

1-95

27

2.7

2.6

2.5

25

2.4

24

23

25

£6
2.5

2-95

2-8
2.6

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.5

2.4

2.6

IfÉÉ

2.6

25

24

2.4

24

2.3

23

24

24

24

24

22

2.1

2.1

1.1

£.3

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.3

2.3

-2.3

2.3

2.1

2.1

2.0

1JS

2.3

2.2

2.1

2.1

2.1

1.7

3-95
4 *95

V

2.6

1-96

26

2.5

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.3

2m

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.4

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

Second quarter data are advance estimates.

Digitized Revised from first quarter 1993 to the present.
for FRASER


IIP 11»«
1-93

2-93

10&£

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.4

2.4

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

6

106.7

3.0

107,5

4-94

1-95

2-95

2.1

2.2

2.5

..2 9 .
3-94

107.8

1.9
2.8

3.3

3-95

4-95

1-96

108.9

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5,1996

Consumer Price Index
Percent Change From Previous Year
Percent

Seasonally Adjusted

1990

1991

1992

1993

Percent

1994

1995

1996

Prepared by Federal Resen/e Bank of St. Louis

Consumer Price Index
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

Initial Month
7-95 8-95 9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

12-94

2.8

3.2

2-95

2.7

2.8

2.4

3-95

2.8

3.0

2.8

3.2

4-95

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.6

4.0

5-95

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.5

3.6

3.1

3.2

3.2

3.4

3.5

3.2

7-95

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.9

2.8

2.4

2.0

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.4

2.1

1.6

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.2

2.0

1.6

2.0

5-96

2.4

9-95

4-96

0.8

8-95

3-96

3.2

6-95

2-96

2.4

1-95

1982-84=100
1-96

1.6

150.2
150.6
150.9
151.3
151,8
152.2
3.2

152.6
152.7
153.0
153.2

10-95

2,8

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.5

2,4

2.2

2.6

2.8

4.0

11-95

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.3

2.1

1.9

22

2.1

2.4

12-95

2,6

2.6

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.3

2.1

2.0

2.2

2,2

2.4

1.6

2.4

1-96

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.6

2.7

3.0

2.6

3.6

4.8

2-96
3-96

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.7
2.8

2.6
2.9

2.6
2.9

2.8
3.2

2.6 I 3.2
3.6
3.0

2.4

2.9

2.5
2.7

3.6

2.9

2.5
2.7

2.4

2.8

2.7
2.8

4.0

3.5

4.7

4-96

2.9

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.8

3.4

3.8

3.0

4.7

4.7

5-96

3.0

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

3.8

4.1

4.5

43

3.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.9

2,9

2.8

2.8

3.4

3 ft

3.9

6-96

3.3

3.5

3.1

2.3

0.8

11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96




2.6

153.7
0.8

- 3.1
3.2

3.2

3.4

3.3
3.4

2.8

2.9

3.0

3.1

3.0

6-95

7-95

8-95

153.8
154.1

1_
_

154.7
155.0
155.6
156.2
156.7
156.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5,1996

Producer Price Index -

Finished Goods

Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

1990

1991

1992

1993

Percent

1994

1995

1996

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Producer Price Index - Finished Goods
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

Initial Month
7-95 8-95 9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1982=100
1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96
126.8

12-94

5.9

1-95

3.9

1.9

2-95

3.2

1.9

127.0
127.2

1.9

127.3

3-95

2.6

1.6

1.4

0.9

4-95

2.7

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.9

5-95

2.7

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.9

2.9

6-95

2.0

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.3

0.5

-1.9

7-95

1.8

1.2

1.1

0.9

0.9

0.3

-0.9

0.0

8*95

1.7

1.2

1.1

0.9

0.9

0.5

-0.3

0.5

0.9

9-95

1.9

1.5

1.4

1.4

1.4

1.1

0.7

1.6

2.4

3.8

127.6
127.9
127.7
127.7
127.8
128.2

10-95

1.9

1.5

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.3

0.9

1.7

2.2

2.9

1.9

11-95

2.1

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.8

1.6

1.4

2.1

2.6

3.2

2.8

3.8

128.4

12-95

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.4

2.3

3.0

3.6

4.3

4.4

5.7

7.7

1-96

2.5
2.4

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.4

2.3

2.2

2.8

3.3

3.8

3.8

4.4

4.7

1.9

2*96

22

2.0

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.7

3.0

2.8

3.1

2.8

0.5

2.5

2.3

2.3

2.3

2.4

1.9
2.4

2.4

3-96

2,0
2.4

2.8

3.2

3.5

3.5

3.8

3.8

25

2.8

6.7

2.6

3.0

3.4

3.7

3.6

3.9

4.0

3.0

3,4

5.7

4.7

128.8
129.6
129.8
-0.9

129.7
130.4

4-96

2.6

2.4

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.6

5-96

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.3

2.3

2.7

2.9

3.1

3.1

3.2

3.1

2.2

2.3

3.4

1.9

-0.9

6-96

2.4

2.2

2.2

2.2

2.3

2.3

2.2

2.6

2.8

3.0

2.9

3.1

2.9

2.2

2.2

3.0

1.9

0.5

1.9

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

11-94 12-94

1-95




2-95

3-95

8-95

130.9
130.8
131.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5,1996

Employment Cost Index and Its Components
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
Compensation is the sum of wages, salaries and benefits for private industry workers.

1996

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Employment Cost Index - Compensation
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

4-91

3.8
3.4

3.2
34

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

June 1989=100
2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

:

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

4.0

2-92

2-92

3.7

1-92

1-92

111.9
113.0

2.5

|

3-92

3.4

3.0

3,4

3.2

3.5

1-93

3.6
3.6
3.6 [:
3.5
3.5

3.5

3.8

3.9

4.2

3.5

3.7

3.7

3.8

3.6

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.4

3.S

3.6
35

3.4

IÉ1I1 3.6

3.4

35

3.5

Ü Ü
3.3

3.4

3.4

3.6
3.5

3.3

3.2

3.0

3.4

3A
3.4

3i>

3.5

3.3

3.5

35

3.$
3.5

3.3
33

3.3
3.3

3.2
3.2

3.4

3.3
3.3

fil32

3.1

113.7

3.6

4-92

.||

2-93
3-93
4-93
1-94

35

3.5

2*94
3-94

3.5

3.4

4-94

3.4

3.3

114.7
3.5

i'

|

115.7
116.9

3.5

33

:

117.9
118.9
119.9
3.4
3.3

..y yHj H| f§
.y

-M
v

'BÉ - '

3.3

1-95

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.3
3.3

3.1

3.1

3.0

3.0

2-95
3-95

3.3
3.3

3.3
3.2

3.2
3.2

3.3
3.2

3.3
3.2

3.2
3.2

3.1
3.1

3.1
3.0

3.0
3.0

3.0
2.9

3.0
2.9

2.9
2.8

2.7
2.7

.... Mm:.... 3.2
3.2
32

3.1

3.2

3*2

3.1

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

3.1

3.2

3.0

3.0

2.9

2.9

2.9

2.8

2.7

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.9

~3£
3-Q
.................
1-93 2-93

3.0

2.9

2.9

3-93

4-93

1-94

—M
2-94 3-94

«
4-94

2.8
....
1-95

..:2.8
--2-95

2.9
~
3-95

3.0
~"
4-95

4-95
1-96

......... 32 ■■ 31
...' ■...........
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3.1

-

3.1

3.1

3-1
4-92

3-92

Data are for the last month of quarter.




9

121.8
122.8

3.3
3.3

3.0

120.8

2,8
2.9

M
2.6

2.9
2.9
2.8

2.9
2.8

2.6

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.6

123.5
124.4
125.3
126.1
126.9
La.............
127.8
3.2
--1-96

1(L

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5,1996

.

Business Productivity and Unit Labor Costs
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Business Sector - Output Per Hour
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

1992=100
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95
97.1

3-91

2.1

4-91

1.7

1.2

1-92

3.7

8.0
5.2
3.2

2-92

3.4

4.6
3.9

3-92

2.6

2.7

4-92

3.1

3.3

1-93

2.1

2,1

97.4
99.3
99.9

2.4

99.7

-0.8

3.8

0.8
2.4

2.4

5.7

2.3

0.9

0.4

1.0

101.1
-3.5

100.2
99.7

2-93

1.6

1.5

1.6

0.3

-0.2

0.0

-2.8

-2.0

3-93

1.5

1.4

1.5

0.4

0.0

0.2

1.7

1.7

1.7

0.9

0.6

0.9

-0.6
0.8

0.8

4-93

-1.6
-0.3

2.2

3.7

1-94

1.4

45.6

0.4

-0.5

0.1
0.2

0.8
0.7

0.8
07

-2.0

0.5

0.2
0.2

Ö.4

1.3

1.3
1.2

0.5

2-94

1.3
1.2

-0.8

0.4

0.5

0.6

-0.1

0.5

1.0

1.1

0.3

1.4

2.4

•

99.9
100.8
100.3
100.4

3-94

1.4

1.3

1.3

0.7

4-94

1.3

1.3

1.3

0.7

0.5

0.7

0.0

0.6

1.0

1.0

0.4

1.2

1.6

0.8

1-95

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.5

0.3

0.4

-0J2

0.2

0.6

0.5

-0. 1

0.4

0.4

-0.6

2-95

1.1

1.1

1.1

0.6

0.4

0.5

0.0

0.4

0.7

0.7

0.2

0.6

0.7

0.1

-0.2

1.6

3-95

1.2

1.1

1.1

0.6

0.5

0.6

0.1

0.8

0.8

0.4

0.8

0.9

0.5

0.4

1.6

1.6

4-95

1.1

1.0

1.0

0.6

0.4

0.5

0.1

0.9

0.6

-0.4

1-96

12

1.1

1.1

0.7

0.6

0.7

0.3

4O

1.0

2.4

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

2-95

3-95

4-95

101.2

<.
=
>

cu




101.0

0.4

0.7

0.7

0.3

0.6

0.7

03

0.2

o6
1-93

0.8

0.8

0.5

0.8

0.9

0*/

0.6

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

100.7

1-95

101.1
101.5
101.4
102.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5,1996

Industrial Production
Seasonally Adjusted

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industrial Production
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month

Initial Month

1987=100

11-94 12-94
12-94

9.9

1-95

6.6

3.3

2-95
3-95

4.0

1.2

3.4

1.3

0.4

1.7

4-95

1.7

-0.2

-1.4

-1.6

121.484
121.816
-0.9

121.720
121.888
•4.8

121.388

5-95

1.3

-0.3

-1.2

-1.2

-2.7

-0.5

6-95

1.3

-0.1

-0.8

-0.7

-1.5

0.2

0.9

7-95

1.2

0.0

-0.5

-0.4

-0.9

0.4

0.8

0.7

8-95

121.339
121.434

3.3

122.690

9-95

2.3

15

1.2

1.6

1.5

2.9

3.7

4.6

6.7

1.3

10-95

0.7

0.4

0.5

0.4

-2.6

0.8

1.0

0.9

1.6
2.1

2.2

1.0

1.3
1.7

1.8

11-95

1.5
1.7

2.3

2.7

-0.3

-1.1

4.3

12-95

17

1.1

0.9

1.1

1.0

1.8

2.1

2.3

2.6

0.3

-0.0

3.2

2.2

122.821
-6.3

122.159
122.587
122.809

1-96

1.4

0.8

0.6

0.7

0.6

1.2

1.5

1.5

1.7

-0.3

-0.7

1.2

-0.4

-2.8

2-96
3-96

2.4

1.9

2.0
1.4

3.8

2.4

5.2

6.8

17.3

2.4

2.6

1.2

2.6
1.2

5.0

2.0

3.1
2.2

3.4

1.4

2.0
1.4

2.7

1.9

1.8
1.2

2.8

2.4

2.5

5.3

-5.5

4-96

2.3

1.8

1.7

1.9

2.0

2.5

2.8

3.0

3.3

22

2.3

3.8

4.1

66

1.5

5-96

2.5

2.1

2.0

4.5

6.4

3.0

7.6

6.1

4.8

6.4

3.9

7.2

6?

6.4

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

11-94 12-94

1-95




2.2

2.2

2.8

3.1

3.3

3.5

2.6

2.8

4.1

2.5

6-96

3.7
4.1

2.5

3.1

3.3

3.5

3.8

3.0

3.2

4.4

4.4

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

11

122.515
124.157
123.576
9.1

124.472
125.090
125.734

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5, 1996

Civilian Employment and Unemployment Rate
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Millions of Persons

1994
1992
1990
1991
1993
1995
1996
* Break in series. January 1994 figures reflect revised data collection procedures and are not directly
comparable with previous data.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Civilian Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95

12-94

1.2
13

1.4

1.7

1.7

2.1

11

0.9

1.0

0.4

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

2.2

4-95

6-95

2.0

3-95

5-95

0.7

2-95

4-95

Thousands
of Persons

17

1-95

3-95

Initial Month
7-95 8-95 9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

124,595
124,671
124,881
125,106
-1.3

124,973

5-95

0.3

0.0

-0.2

-0.9

-2.4

-3.5

6-95

0.2

-0.0

-0.2

-0.8

-1.7

-1.9

-0.3

7-95

0.5

0.3

0.3

-0.1

-0.7

-0.5

1.1

2.6

8-95

0.5

0.3

-0.0

-0.5

-0.3

0.8
1.1

1.4
1.5

1.0

1.7

16

1.3

2.0

1.0

0.6

1.9
0.7

0.1

-1 7

0.7

0.3

0.3

-0.2

-1.3

-0 8

124,598

9-95

0.6

0.5

0.3
0.4

0.2

-0.1

0.1

10-95

0.7

0.6
0.4

0.4

0.2

0.4

0.2

-0.1

0.1

0.3

0.1

-0.1

0.0

12
0.7
03

11-95

0.5

0.6
0.4

12-95

0.4

0.3

124,566
124,832
124,859

0.3

125,036

WÊÈm

125,244
125.062
124,981

1-96

0.6

0.5

0.4

0.3

0.1

0.3

0.8

0.9

0.6

0.7

0.5

-0.1

0.8

2.4

2-96

0.8

0,7

0.7

0.6

0.5

0.7

1.1

1.3

1.1

1.3

1,0

1.9

3.3

4.3

1.7

2.6

3.8

45

4.8

1.4

2.0 i

2.7

28

2.1

-0.5

3-96

1.0

1.0

1.0

0.9

0.8

1.0

1.5

1.7

1.6

1.8

1.2
1.8

4-96

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.8

0.7

0.9

1,3

15

1.4

1.5

1.5

5-96

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.0

0.9

1.1

1.5

1.7

1.6

1.7

1.7

1.1

1.1

1.1

1.0

1.0

1,1

1.6

1.6

1.7

11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

6-96




5-95

125.226
125,663
126,151
126,095

1.7

2.3

2.9

3.0

'2.6

1.5

3.5

1.6

2.1

2.6 : ,.2J

2.3

13

25

1.4

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

12

1-96

126,462
126,610

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5,1996

Payroll Employment
Seasonally Adjusted
Millions

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Payroll Employment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

Initial Month
7-95 8-95 9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

Thousands
1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96
115,913

12-94

2.6

1-95

3.1

3.5

116,250

2.9
2.7

2,6
2.4

116,502

3-95

3.1
2.7

2.1

4-95

2.5

2.5

2.1

1.9

1.7

5-95

2.2

2.1

1.7

1.4

1.1

0.5

6-95

2.1

2.1

1.8

1.5

1.4

1.2

2.0

7-95

2.0

1.9

1.6

1.4

1.3

1.2

1.5

1.0

8-95

2.1

2.1

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.6

2.1

3.1

9-95

2.0

2.0

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.6

2.0
1.8

1.8

2.2

1.3

10-95

2.0

1.9

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.9

1.9

1.7

1.5

1.7

1.6

1.8

1.3
1.4

1.3

1.9

1.5
1.5

1.5

11-95

1.6
1.6

1.4

1.5

12-95

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.6

1.8

2.0

2.4

1-96

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.5

1.4

1.6
1.4

1.5

1.4

1.5

1.2

1.1

1.1

0.9

1.8

1.8
1.8

2.0

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.8
1.8

2.0
1.9

2.1

1.8

1.8
1.7

1.9

1.9

1.8
1.8

1.9

3-96

2,0
2.0

2.0

2.0

4-96

2.0

1.9

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.8

1.9

1.9

2.0

1.8

1.9

5-96

2.1

2.0

2.0

1.9

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.0

2.1

2.0

6-96

2.1

2.1

2.0

1.9

1.9

2.0

2.1

21

2.2

2.1

11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

2-95

2-96




116,701
116,861
116,907
117,100

>

117,201
117,499
117,623
117,749
117,899
118,136
-0.7

118,070

2.3
2.1

2.3
2.1

5.3
3.4

1.6

118,579
118,737

2.0

2.1

2.0

2.9

1.8

1.9

2.1

2.3

2.4

2.4

3.1

2.4

2.8

3.7

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.4

3.0

2.4

2.7

3.1

2.4

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

118,928
119,293
119,532

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5,1996

13

Real Personal Income
Seasonally Adjusted
Trillions of Dollars

Trillions of Dollars

Real incomes are expressed in chained 1992 dollars.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Disposable Personal Income
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

Initial Month
7-95 8-95 9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
5-96
4,876.8

12-94

6.0

1-95

6.3

6.6

2-95

3.1
2.5

-0.2

3-95

4,1
3.4

0.5

1.3

4-95

1.2

0.0

-2.1

-3.0

4,902.7
4,901.7
4,906.9
-7.0

4*877.1

5-95

2.4

1.7

0.5

0.8

0.5

8.7

6-95

2.8

2.3

1.5

1.9

2.1

7.1

4,911.3
5.4

4,933.0

7-95

3.1

2.7

2.0

2.5

2.8

6.3

5.1

4.8

8-95

2.7

2.3

1.7

2.0

2.1

4.6

32

2.1

-0.5

9-95

3.0

2.7

2.2

2.6

2.8

4.9

4.0

3.5

2.9

6.4

10-95

2.9

2.4

2.8

3.0

4.8

4.0

3.7

3.3

5.2

4.1

11-95

3.1
3.2

3.0

2.7

3.0

3.2

47

4.1

3.8

3.6

50

4.3

4.5

12-95

33

3.3

3.0

3.3

3.5

4.9

4.4

4.2

4.1

5.3

4.9

5.3

4,952.4
4,950.3
4,975.8
4,992.4
5,010.8
6.1

5,035.6

1-96

3.0

2.8

2.5

2.7

2.8

4.0

3.4

3.2

2.9

3.6

2.9

2.5

1.5

-2.9

2-96

32

3.0

2.7

2.9

3.1

4.2

3.7

3.4

3.2

3.9

3.4

3.2

2.8

1.1

5.4

3-96

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.7

2.8

3.8

3.3

3.0

2.8

3.3

2.8

2.5

2.0

0.7

2.6

-0.1

4-96

2.2

1.9

1.6

1.8

1.8

2.6

2.0

1.7

1.4

1.6

0.9

0.4

-0.4

-2.0

•1.6

-5.0

-9.6

5-96"

2.9

2.7

2.5

2.6

2.7

3.5

3.1

2.9

2.7

3.1

2.7

2.5

2.1

1.4

2.5

1.5

2.3

15.8

6-96

32

3.1

2.9

3.1

3.2

4.0

3.6

3.5

3.4

3.7

3.5

3.4

3.2

2.8

3.9

3.6

4.8

12.9

10>0

11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

Revised from 1993 to the present.




14

5,023.1
5,045.2
- 5,044.7
■

5,002.5
5,064.0
5,104.4

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5,1996

Retail Sales
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

The CPI is used to deflate retail sales data (1982-84=100).
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Retail Sales
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Month
11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

Billions of
Initial Month
7-95 8-95 9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

127.177

12-94

-2.2

1-95

3.9

2-95

-2 3

3-95

-0.3

0.3

-4.3

6.7

4*95

-1.3

-1.1

-4.6

0.6

5-95

0.6

1.2

-1.0

3.8

2.4

10.5

6*95

1.5

2.1

0.6

4.7

4.0

8.9

7.2

7-95

0.7

1.1

-0.3

2.7

1.7

4.1

1.0

-4.8

8*95

1.2

1.7

0.5

2.5

4.4

2.5

0.2

5.4

9-95

0.9

1.2

0.2

3.1
2.4

1.7

3.1

1.3

-0.5

1.7

-2.0

10-95 :
11-95

0.2

0.4

-0.6

15
2.7

-0.3
1.4

0.3

-1,1
1.6

-6.4

0.4

0.5
1.7

-4,2

1.3

1.2
2.2

-2.0

1.0

0.3

1.5

10.2

12-95

1.3

1.6

0.8

2,5

2.9

1,9

10

2.3

1.5

2.7

7.5

5,0

1-96

0.9

1.1

0.4

1.8

2.0
14

2 1

11

0.3

1.1

0.3

0.8

3.4

0.2

-4.4

2-96

2.4

2.7

2.2

3.7

3.4

4,3

3.6

3.2

4.3

4.2

5.4

8.6

8.1

9.7

26.0

3-96

2.3

2.6

2.0

3.4

3.1

3.9

3.3

2.8

3.8

3.6

4.6

6.9

6.1

6.5

12.4

0.3

1.5

2.7

2.4

3.1

2.4

6,0

-2.7

-5.6

2.7

3.3

2.7

2.3

4-96

1.8

1982-84
Dollars
128.218

10.3
-2.7 -14.2

2.0

126.597
127.280
126.727

-5,1

127.788
128.531

2.0

128.006
128.573
127.647
128.683
129.204
128.719
131.221
131.252

2.4

3.0

4.7

3.7

3.3

3.1

2.8

3.4

4.9

4.1

3.9

6.1

0.1

0.1

6.1

2.6

3.8

2.9

2.6

40

*0.8

-1.2

11

-3.6

9-95 10-95 11-95 12-95

1-96

2-96

3-96

4-96

5-96

2.7

5-96

2.0

2.3

1.8

2.9

6-96

1.7

1.9

1.4

2.5

2.2

2.8

22

1.8

2.4

2.1

11-94 12-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

5-95

6-95

7-95

8-95

Retail Sales are
 deflated using the CPI (1982-84=100).


128.358

130.622
131.265

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5, 1996

130.859

Total Business Inventory/Sales Ratio
Seasonally Adjusted
Ratio

Ratio

Shaded area represents a period of business recession.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Inventories and Sales
(Billions of Dollars)

1993
1994
1995
1995
May
June
July
August
September
October
November
December
1996
January
February
March
April
May

Manufacturing
Shipments (1) Inventories (2)
390.72
3126.01
406.21
3343.38
432.34
3565.75

Retail Trade
Sales (1) Inventories (2)
267.92
2072.55
2227.76
290.60
2341.75
302.88

Total Business (3)
Sales (1) Inventories (2)
874.52
7139.15
7648.54
931.70
8160.71
989.84

295.25
296.88
293.90
299.81
300.75
299.82
300.76
301.28

422.81
424.29
426.72
427.25
429.96
431.30
431.65
432.34

194.49
196.14
195.47
196.72
196.64
196.19
197.91
199.10

300.28
300.52
299.04
302.70
303.30
306.22
307.27
302.88

676.69
681.31
676.52
684.48
686.27
685.66
690.24
695.29

969.91
973.73
977.66
982.15
986.37
992.27
993.64
989.84

298.69
301.76
300.65
308.00
311.23

434.72
435.62
435.41
435.44
434.62

199.13
203.39
204.23
204.03
205.69

304.37
304.82
302.15
303.40
303.52

690.69
699.21
700.25
709.54
714.85

995.35
996.01
994.01
998.43
997.15

1. Annual data are sums of monthly shipments/sales.
2. Annual data are end-of-year stocks.
3. Total business is the sum of manufacturing, retail trade and merchant wholesalers.




P repared by Federal R eserve B ank of St. Louis

16

Real Final Sales and Real GDP
Percent Change From Previous Year
Seasonally Adjusted

Percent

Percent

Real final sales and real GDP are chain-weight quantity indexes scaled to 1992 dollars.
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Final Sales of Domestic Product
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
1-96
Annual Rates

-0*1

6,083.8

1-92

3.0

6.2

6,175.8

2-92

2.6
2.7

4.0

1.8

3.6

2.4

3.0
3.8

4.6

4-91

3-92

6,203.8
6,249.5
6,320.7

4-92

3.1

3.9

3.1

1-93

2.4

2.9

2.1

2.2

1.9

-0.9

2-93

2.3

2.7

2.1

2.1

1.8

0.4

1.7

3-93

2.3

2.7

2.1

2.2

1.9

1.1

2.0

2.3

4-93

26

3.0

2.5

2.6

2.5

2.0

3.0

3.7

5.0

1-94

2.5

2.8

2.3

2.4

2.3

1.9

2.5

2.8

3.0

1.2

2-94

2.5

2.8

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.0

2.6

2.8

3.0

2.0

3.0

3-94

2.6

2.9

2.6

2.7

2.6

2.3

2.9

3.1

3.3

2.8

3.6

4.2

4-94

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.5

3.0

3.2

3.3

2.9

3.5

3.8

3.4

6,307.1
6,334.5
6,371.3
6,449.2
6,467.7
6,514.9
6,582.1

1-95

2.7 I I 2.9
2.8
2.6

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.5

2.8

2.7

2.0

0.6

2-95

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2.4

2.6

2.6

2.0

1.3

2.1

3-95

2.6

2.8

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.3
2.4

2.7

2.8

2.9

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.4

2.1

2.8

3.6

4-95

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

9?

O1

2.4

2.6

2.5

2.2

2.5

2.7

2.5

2.5

2.5

2.3

26

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.3

2.1

2.5

2.7

2.6

2.8

2.6

2.6

2.6

24

£7

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.7 111# .

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

6,638.1
6,647.4
ß eoo "a
.
i .....
6,741.4
e 7tiA o
b,764.Z|

1-96
2-96

Second quarter data are advance estimates.
Revised from first quarter 1993 to the present.




1-94

17

2-94

»
1.4
2.2

6,815.2

3.1
3.$

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5, 1996

Components of Real GDP Growth Rate (1)

Real GDP

2nd
4.22

1996
1st
2.00

Final Sales

3.51

3.04

1.35

3.56

2.11

0.56

3.41

4.14

Change in Business
Inventories

0.78

-1.03

-1.08

0.15

-1.42

-0.10

-0.50

-0.61

Personal Consumption
Expenditures

2.54

2.36

0.72

1.64

2.11

0.65

2.10

1.88

Fixed Investment
Nonresidential
Residential

0.66
0.06
0.57

1.47
1.20
0.28

0.50
0.25
0.24

0.85
0.51
0.34

-0.23
0.36
-0.56

1.19
1.48
-0.26

1.14
1.16
0.00

1.18
1.28
-0.08

Government Expenditures

1.27
0.56
0.72

0.30
0.40
-0.11

-0.81
-0.96
0.17

-0.10
-0.41
0.31

0.14
-0.10
0.24

-0.23
-0.49
0.27

-0.28
-0.45
0.18

1.31
0.82
0.48

Net Exports
Exports
Imports

-1.03
0.61
-1.63

-1.12
0.21
-1.33

0.99
1.19
-0.21

1.18
1.18
0.01

0.07
0.65
-0.58

-1.08
0.28
-1.37

0.45
1.70
-1.23

-0.27
1.01
-1.26

Residual (2)

-0.01

0.04

-0.06

0.04

0.06

-0.02

0.04

0.00

Federal
State and Local

4th
0.25

1995
3rd
3.80

2nd
0.75

1st
0.42

4th
2.98

3rd
3.52

1994

(1) Contribution of each component to the compound annual rate of real GDP growth in each quarter indicated.
Elements may not sum to the total due to rounding.
(2) Residual line is calculated using the finest level of detail shown in the table.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Real Personal Consumption Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

4-91

2.7

23

4.3

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

6.4

2-92

2-92

9
»

1-92

1-92

Billions of Chained
Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94

4,109.1
4,173.8
2.2

4,196.4
4,226.7

3-92

2.6

3.8

2.6

2.9

4-92

3.1
2.7

4.2

3.5

4.1

5.4

1-93

4,282.3

2.8

3.0

3.0

0.7

2.9

2.7

4,289.7
- :

csi

ii

3.5
3.4

2.8

2.9

1.7

3-93

2.9

3.4

2.9

3.1

3.1

2.4

3.3

3.8

4-93

2.9

3.4

2.9

3.1

3.1

2.5

3.1

3.3

2.8

1-94

2.9

3.3

2.9

3.0

3.0

2.6

3.0

3.2

2.8

2.8

2-94

2.9

3.3

3.0

31

3.1

2.7

3.2

2.9

3.3

3.0

3.0

3.1

2.7

3.1

3.0
3.0

3.2
3.0

3.5

3-94

3.1
3.1

3.1

2.8

4-94

2.9

3.3

3.0

3.1

3.1

2.8

3.1

3.1

3.0

3,1

3.1

3.0

3.1

2-93

1992 Dollars
Annual Rates

4,318.8
4,359.5
4,390.0
4,420.5
4,458.7
4,489.4
4,524.0

1-95

2.8

3.1

2.8

2.9

2.9

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.3

2.0

10

2-95

2.8

2.8
2.8

2.9
2.8

2.9
2.8

2.6
2.6

2.9
2.8

2.9
2.8

2.7
2.7

2.7
2.7

2.7

2.5

2.4

3.1

2.6

2.5

2.4

2.0
2.2

2.8

2.4

2.5

2.4

2.2

2.1

1.9

2.2

17

1.1

2.5

2.3

2.3

3.5

2.8

3,6

3.7

3-95

4-95

1-96

4,534.8

3-95

2.8

3.1
3.0

4-95

2.7

2.9

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.5

2.6

2.6

2.5

1-96

2.7

2.9

2.7

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.6

2-96

2.8

3.0

2.8

2.8

2.8

2.6

2.8

2.8

2.7

2.7

2.7

2.6

2.6

2.5

2.8

2*7

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

Second quarter data are advance estimates.
Revised from first quarter 1993 to the present.




18

2.4

2.4

2.2

4,569.9
4,597.3
4,609.4
4,649.1
4,692.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5, 1996

Real Residential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
1-92

3-92

2-92

4-92

3-91

4-91

4-91
1-92

14,6
19.6

MS

23.5

22.2

15.9

163

123

16.5

16.9

14.5

10.8

13.9

13.8

11.2

7.8

10 1

11.0

10.4

7.7

4.4

4.8

-1.6

1-95

3-95

4-95

20

2-93

4-94

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
1-96

18.8

1-93

3-94

3.2

4-92

2-93

2-94

24 7

2-92
3-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

2-95

202.4
213.9
H jP ö j
P $$$

224.9

226.7

236.7
237.9
234.8

-5.1

11 3

10.8

86

6.1

68

3.1

3.6

13.2

10.8

&0

12.7

9.5

10.1
10.6

8.1
9.0

10,2
10.8

18.7
16.7

24.4

1-94

12-4
12.5

18.5

12.8

2-94

12.7

9.9

10.9

9.6

11-2

15.7

5

12.7

3-93
4-93

m

11.0

3-94

11.4

12.5 ¡¡¡1 1 1
11 1
9.8

4-94

10.5

10.1

1-95

9.2

8.8

7.5
7.6

7.0
7.1

4-95

7.5

1-96

7.5

2-96

242.2
255.8
263.6

3-95

9.2

7.9

8.9

11.9

11.6

7.6

7.6

8.1

6.9

7.6

9.8

5.7

3.4

7.5

6.3

6.6

5.3

5.7

7.4

»• 2
6.4

5.7

4.5

4.6

3.3

3.4

4.5

3,3

6.0

4.8

5.0

3.8

4.0

5.0

4.0

7.1

6.0

4.9

5.1

443

42

5.2

7.1

6.1

5.1

4.3

4.5

7.9

7.5

66

5,7

5.2
aQ
0*<7

5.0

3-91

2-95

8.5

12.7
5.1

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

8.9

271.6
270.3

-1 9
-1.0

270.3

0.0
-6 4

265.9

3.1

0.9

-2.8

-3.2

:i l
1.4

-2.2

-5.6

•6.7 -10.0 -13.4

-0.4

-2.8

-3.0

-4.0

-2.8

9.2

■
4.3 ■ 2.0 t 0.6
s
4.6
1.4
2.6

-1.3

-12

-1.5

0.2

78

6.4

5.4

-0.1

02

0.2

2.0

7.7

6.9

7.4

5.2

6.1

SM

3.8

2.8

1.7

2.2

2.6

4.5

9.5

9.6

11.2

151

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

256.5
262.2
266.3
271.1
280.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5, 1996

Second quarter data are advance estimates.
Revised from first quarter 1993 to the present.

Real Nonresidential Fixed Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91

-0.3

1-92

3-92

2-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
1-96

-42

1-92

4-91

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

539.5
37

544.4

2-92

3.0

6.8

10.0

3-92

2.8

5.2

6.0

2. 2

4-92

3.5

5.5

6.1

42

6.2

1-93

39

5.6

6.1

4. 8

6.1

60

2-93

42

5.7

6.1

5.2

6.2

6.2

6.3

557.5
560.6
569.1
577.5
586.4

3-93

4.3

5.6

5.9

5. 1

5.8

5.7

5.5

4.6

4-93

5.7

7.0

7.5

7.1

8.1

8.5

9.4

10.9

17.6

1-94

5.8

70

7.4

7. 1

7.9

8.3

8.8

9.7

12.3

7.2

6.0
6.6

7.0

7.4

7.8

8.1

85

9.1

10.6

7.2

7.6

8.0

7.0

8.0

8.4

2-94
3-94

7. 8
r*

593.1
617.6
628.5

72

639.5

8.5

8.9

9.4

10.0

11.4

9.4

10.4

13.8

8.9

9.3

9.8

103

11.5

10.1

13.0

660.5

1-95

76

8.6

9.0

8. 9

9.6

9.9

10.4

11.0

12 1

11.1

11.0
12.1

13.8

137

153

2-95

8.2
8.0

8.5

8.4

9.0

9.3

9.6

10.1

10.9

9.8

10.3

11.1

10.2

9.3

3.5

3-95
4_OK

7,3
7.2

83

8. 1

8.6

8.9

9.2

9.5

10.1

91

9.4

9.8

8.9

7.8

4.2

4.9

6.9

7.6

7.9

7

8.3

85

8.8

9.2

8.2

8.4

3.6

3.6

24

7.1

8.1

8.8

9.0

9.5

8.6

8.8

9.0

7.4

5.6

6.2

6.9

11.6

68

80
J

8.6

2-96

7.8
-r a

7.5
8.2

6.4

1-96

8.6

7.8

7.8

7.9

7.1

6.3

4£

4.8

4.8

5.9

03

3-91

4-91

1-92

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-92

8.4

«
3-92

8.0
4-92

1-93

2-93

Second quarter data are advance estimates.
Revised from first
 quarter 1993 to the present.


19

679.7

12.1

704.4
710.5
719.0
723.3
743.5
744.5

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5, 1996

Real Government Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
1-96

!

4-91

-1.4

1-92

0.5

2.5

2-92
3-92

0.3

-0.3

0.9

1.1
1.7

1.3

2.9

4-92

1.1

1.7

1.5

2.4

1250.7
1258.5
1287.5
1266.5

1-93

0.1

0.4

-0.1

0.0

19
-1.4

2-93

0.2

0.4

-0.0

0.1

-0.9

-2.2

02

3-93

0.3

0.5

0.2

0.3

-0.4

-1.1

0.6

1.0

4-93

0.4

0.6

0.3

0.5

-0.0
-0.7

-0.5

0.9

1.2

-1.3

-0.4

-0.6

-1 5

-4.3

*0.8
0.2

-1.2

-0.5

-0.7

-1.2

-2 6

-0.8

1272.5
1257.7

-4.6
i

il f l p ll i

1258,4
1261.6

1,5

1266.2

1-94

-0 1

0.1

-0.2

-0.2

2-94

-02

-0 0

-0.3

-0 1

0.7

0.8

0.8

05

3.0

7.0

0.0

-0.2

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.0

1.5

2.7

-1.4

-0.1

-0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

-0.2

0.8

1.4

-1.3

-1.2

0.3

0.3

0,2

-0.1

0.8

1.2

•0.6

-0.2

3-94

0.4

0.6

-0.3
0.4

4-94

0.3

0.4

0.2

1-95

0.2

0.3

0.1

0,3
0.2

2-95

0.2

0.3

0.2

0.2

-0.0

-0.2

0.5

1252.4
1249.8
1271.2
1266.6
1262.7
0,8

1265.1

3-95

0.2

0.3

0.1

0.1

-0.1

-0.3

0.2

0.2

0.1

-0.1

0.6

0.9

-0.6

-0.3

0.1

-0.5

4-95

-0.1

-0.0

-0.2

-0.2

-0.4

-0,6

•02

-0.3

-0.4

-0.7

-0.1

-0,0

-1.4

-1.3

-1.4

-2.4

-4.3

1-96

-0.0

0.1

-0.1

-0.1

-0.3

-0.4

-0.1

-0.1

-0.2

-0.4

0.1

0.2

-0.9

-0.8

-0.6

-1.1

-1.4

1.6

2-96

0.4

0.5

0.3

0.4

0.2

0.1

0.5

0.5

0,4

0.3

0.8

1.1

0.2

0.5

09

0.9

1.4

4.3

71

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

1263.4
1249.6
1254.7
1276.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5,1996

Second quarter data are advance estimates.
Revised from first quarter 1993 to the present.

Real Federal Consumption Expenditures & Gross Investment
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

-6.8

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
1-96
Annual Rates

526.9

-4.1

-1.4

-3,2
-1.2

4-92

-0.3

1-93
nT O
iCno •
&
3-93

525.1

$3
£ .3

: ***

1-92
2-92
3-92

-1.4
1.7

4.9

2.3

4.1

-2.5

0.7
1.3
- 1.6

-1.7

-1.8

-2.9

-2.2

-2A

-2.6

-5.0

-8.9

-4.9

-2.9

-2.3

-2.5

-2.7

-4.5

-7.0

-3.9

-2.9

-2.1

-2,2

-2.3

-3.7

-5.4

-2.9

-1.8

-0.7
-6.2 - 11.4

529.6

%

3.4

516.1
509.7
505.9
ill p n

4-93
1-94

-3.6

-3.2

-3.4

-3 7

-5.1

-6.7

-5.1

-5.1

2-94

-3.7

-3.4

-3.6

-3.9

*.1
-3.2

-6.4

-5.1

-8.4
-3.1

3-94

-2.5

-2 1

-2.2

-2.8

-2.4

-2.5

1-95

-3.1

-2.8

-2.9

-3 0

2-95
3-95

-2,9

-2.7

-2.8

-3.1

-2.9

-3.0

3*7

3.5

-3.7

-2.9
-3.1
«
3^3

-4 1

-2.5

-4.3

-3.0

*2.7

-4.5

-3.5

-3.3

-3.3

-3.8

-3.6
-3.7

*2.7

-5.2 , -5.9
-2.0 -1.8

-3.5
-3.8

-2.3

4-94

534.0

-5.0 -12.7

*4.2
-4.4

-3.2
-3.5

-3.0

-3,0
-3.4
-4 5

-3.4
-3.7

-3.5

-3.8

-4.5

-4.4

-3.3

...

1-96

-3.2

-3.0

-3.1

-3.2

-3.8

-4.3

-3.6

-3.4

2-96

-2.fi

-2.4

-2.5

-2.5

-3.0

-3.4

-2.7

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

-2.2

-2.5

3-91

-2.6

489.9
-5.3
2.8

11.6

-0.2
-1.8

2.5
-0.6

-5.9 il ill lip
-6.2
-6.5

-1.7

-0.8

-4.6

-2.4

-1.8

-4.9

I -%
Ü
496.7

*4 .0
-4.5

j

3-93

4-93

m l ¡p m § n i i i i g i i ¡¡I i f

-3.5
-A

-4.6

-2.4

-4.6
-2.8

-4.3
A4

-3.8

-1.1

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

-4.0

479 A
472.5

-5.6
A
4 -131

-2.8

20

489.2
481.0

-1.3

-1.6

Second quarter data are advance estimates.
Revised from first quarter 1993 to the present.



505.0

456*2
6.0

462.9
472.4

5

-0.0

7.2

8.5

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5, 1996

Real Exports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91
4»91 :
1-92

4-91

1-92

3-92

2-92

4-92

1-93

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

2-93

7.2

4.0

1.8

3-92

60

35

21

6.0

4.1

3.4

42.

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

623.5
633.0

llllllllililli?

635.8

2.5

4-92

3-94

62

2-92

2-94

.

lllil!

13,9
100

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
1-96
Annual Rates

:

I

639.7

✓

llllllllilll * '

6.0

649.1
647.1

1-93

4.7

30

2.2

2.4

2.3

-1.2

2-93

«
3.4

3.9

3.4

3.8

3.4

&2

2.0

1.3

1.2

4*
0.9

-0.7

-0.5

4.6
3.7

s*
3.9

4,8
3.5

6.9
4.7

5.5
6.1

5.5
61

ill!

7.2
6.7

7.3

3-93
4-93
1-94

%$ ' m
4.7

38

4.2
3.5

2*94

5,7

4.9

4.8

3-94

60

54

53

5.7

4-94

6*8
6.5

6.2

6.2

6.7

5.9

59

6.3

1-95

6.8

\'

-

660.0
645.5

-8.5
•

f SÊiB
SÊÊ

6
.2

23.4

3.6

10.2

-1.6

« *
7.2

j 12.1

6.8

15.9

7.3

11 5

7.8

12.8

97

8,6
7.8

6.7 '12.5
7.8 107

9.9
84

14.0
11 0

13.1
94

680.3

;

677.6
703.1
719.6
16.5
9.3

747.6
752.3

2.5

ji t j ■111

763.2

7.5
7.9

10.0

8.0

10.0

8.5

8.2

10.1

8.4

10.1

90

88

64

83

10.8

8.2
7.6

8.2

10.2

8.7

10.2

9.3

9.2

7.4

9.1

10.7

10.7

7.6

9.3

7.9

9.1

82

79

63

7.2

7.7

6.1

1.8

-6 .7 . ■111 7.4

7.4

m

7.6

8.7

7,8

7.5

6.1

ill!

7.0

5.8

3.5

5.2

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

2-95

6.5

5.9

5.9

6.3

6.6

6.7

7.6

3-95

67

63

63

6.6

70

7.1

7.9

4-95

7.0

6.5

6.6

6.9

'
M

7.4

1-96

67

62

6.2

66

6.9

69

2-96

m

6.2

6-2

¡m m

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

783.0
803.1
806.7
817.0

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5, 1996

Second quarter data are advance estimates.
Revised from first quarter 1993 to the present.

Real Imports
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

4*91
1-92

4.6

8.6

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

Billions of Chained
1992 Dollars
Annual Rates
1-96

4.1

7.4

2-92

5.1

2-92

1-92

Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94

641.4
647.8
13.3

668.3

3-92

5.9

6 1

7.1

1.3

4-92

7.0

7.4

8.6

6.3

670.5
11.6

689.1

1-93

7.2

7.6

8.5

70

10.0

8.4

2-93

8.0

8.5

9.4

8.4

10,9

10.5

703.1
12.7

724.4

3-93

7.5

7.8

8.5

7.5

91

83

8.3

4.1

4-93

8.5

9.0

9.7

9.1

10.8

10.5

10.6

17.5

1-94

8.5

8.9

9.5

90

103

101

11.3
105

9.8

12.8

8.2

2-94

9.4

9.8

10.5

10.1

11.4

11.4

12.0

11.9

14.6

13.2

18.3

3-94

95

9.9

10.5

102

11 3

11 3

11.8

11.6

136

123

14.5

10.7

4-94

9.9

10.5

1Û.2
103

11,6 l l l i l
11.6 11.4

12.9
127

11.8
11 7

10.3

105

11.2
11 2

10.5

10.0

11.2
11.2

13.1

1-95

9.5
9.7

12.6

10.8

10.8

11 2

2-95

9.3

9.6

10.1

9.8

10.6

10.5

*10.7

8.6

7.8

4.5

3-95

8.7

89

9.3

9.0

9.7

95

96

10.9 I I ! m
9.0
73

6.4

51

22

-0 0

4-95

8.3

8.5

8.8

8.5

9.0

8.9

5.4

4.2

2.0

0.8

8.6

9.1

8,8
90

9.0

87

9.1

9.2

9.3

9.0

9.5

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

1-96

8.4

86

8.9

2-96

8.6

8.8

9.1

3-91

4-91

1-92

M l 9.4
2-92 3-92

731.7
761.8

10.5 l l l i l 1
93
99
89
8.5

9.0

777.0

8.0
8.3
tt# :

4-93

Second quarter data are advance estimates.

 quarter 1993 to the present.
Revised from first


91

7,9
83

810.4

6,3

884.6
884.5
1.6

m o
910.7

2-94

6.3

5.5

4.1

4.0

6.0

10.6

7.2

6.9

8.8
1-94

831.3
851.9
874.9

6.7

5.8

6.1

83

11.7

12.9

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

938.7

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5, 1996

Trade and Current Account Balances
Current Prices
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

The goods and services trade balance and the current account are for the current plus 3 previous quarters
until 1993. Since 1993, the goods and services trade balance uses the current plus previous 1 months.
1
Shaded area represents a period of business recession.
Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

U.S. International Transactions
(Millions of Dollars, Seasonally Adjusted)
1-96

4-95

3-95

2-95

1-95

4-94

3-94

204,934
47,983

203,615
46,513

199,210
45,269

194,718
46,779

188,986
44,100

184,126
39,368

177,075
37,212

Imports
Goods and Services
-229,286
Income Payments on Foreign Assets in the U.S. -48,378

-223,006
-48,403

-223,545
-49,630

-226,542
-47,641

-218,501
,*45,000

-211,472
-42,462

-205,522
-38,801

Exports
Goods and Services
Income Receipts on U.S. Assets Abroad

Balance on Current Account

-35,588

-30,435

-37,688

-40,976

-39,054

-42,655

-40,011

Change in U.S. Assets Abroad
U.S. Official Reserve Assets
U.S. Private Assets

-55,732
17
-55,801

-98,214
191
-98,206

-39,595
-1,893
-37,954

-108,299
-2,722
-105,398

-61,747
-5,318
-56,275

-59,603
2,033
-60,693

-25,569
-165
-25,116

98,816
51,582
47,234

99,229
11,369
87,860

118,816
39,186
79,630

115,421

90,995
21,822
69,173

72,632
266
72,366

83,619
19,785
63,834

Change in Foreign Assets in the U.S.
Foreign Official Assets
Other Foreign Assets

37,380
78,041

Note: Negative values indicate dollar outflows from the United States.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

22

Gross Saving as a Percent of GDP
Seasonally Adjusted
Percent

Percent

Total saving equals private saving plus government surplus and consumption of fixed capital.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Gross Saving and Investment
(Billions of Dollars and Percent of GDP)
Gross
Private Saving

Gross
Government
Saving

Gross
Private Domestic
Investment

Gross
Gov't Domestic
Investment

1993: 1
2
3
4

Billion
981.0
951.8
962.4
954.6

Billion
-72.3
-28.0
-24.9
17.5

Percent
-1.1
-0.4
-0.4
0.3

Billion
843.6
855.9
873.8
911.2

Billion
207.1
210.6
209.8
214.7

Percent
3.2
3.2
3.2
3.2

Billion
-62.6
-83.0
-96.2
-111.0

Percent
-1.0
-1.3
-1.5
-1.7

1994: 1
2
3
4

1013.5
991.3
1003.8
1018.3

15.0
14.4
14.4
14.4

20.8
74.1
51.1
52.4

0.3
1.1
0.7
0.7

957.6
1016.5
1033.6
1050.1

14.1
14.8
14.8
14.8

207.3
208.5
217.2
216.3

3.1
3.0
3.1
3.1

-106.5
-129.7
-150.6
-158.9

-1.6
-1.9
-2.2
-2.2

1995: 1
2

14.6
14.1

71.2
84.4

3
4

1043.8
1018.5
1085.9
1138.9

14.9
15.5

82.7
81.7

1.0
1.2
1.1
1.1

1072.0
1050.3
1074.8
1064.0

15.0
14.6
14.7
14.5

219.1
223.7
224.7
220.1

3.1
3.1
3.1
3.0

-146.2
-150.8
-138.1
-110.2

-2.0
-2.1
-1.9
-1.5

1996: 1
2

1133.8
NA

15.3
NA

84.1
NA

1.1
NA

1068.9
1093.0

14.4
14.5

228.8
233.6

3.1
3.1

-129.9
NA

-1.7
NA

Percent
15.2
14.6
14.6
14.3

Percent
13.1
13.2
13.3
13.6

Net
Foreign
Investment

Note: Gross private and government saving equals gross private, government, and net foreign investment minus a statistical discrepancy.
Net Foreign Investment is the excess of U.S. investment abroad over foreign investment in the U.S..




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

23

Corporate Profits After Tax
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
2-91

3-91

3-91
4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

-10.8
-2.6

4-91

Initial Quarter
1-93 2-93 3-93 4-93
•:
:

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

6.3

1-92

14*1

29.0

2-92

4.3

9.9

3-92

-7.8

4-92

8.0

1-93

6.4

56.6
11.7 -20.3

-7.0 -11.1
12.2 137
9.5

240.7
244.4
273.4
258.3

-33.0 -43.6
2.2 15.8 138.1

10.2

0.9

9.2

52.0

223.8
278.0
-3.0

275.9

2-93

7.3

10.2

10.8

3.4

10.4

38.2

5.2

14.2

3-93

13.5

14.6

38.7

15.8

26.5

401

152

16.4

8.8
11.6

153

4-93

10.5
12.3

18.0

36.8

19 1

27 5

34.8

1-94

5,7

7.5

7.6

2.7

18.4

3.0

4.5

285.2
310.3
29.6

331.1
288.3
96.9

2-94

11.3

13.6

14.3

10.4

6.5
150

27.3

14.7

18.6

1.5 -13.7 -42.5
19.7 13.6
6.4

3-94
4-94

11.2

13.3

13.9

10 3

14.4

25.0

14 0

17.1

17.7

12.7

7.6

47.1

10.0

11.0

12.9

13.5

102

13.9

23 1

13.4

15.9

16.2

11.9

7.9

33.1

9.5

1-95

9.0

10.6

11.0

7.8

10.8

9.7

11.5

11.1

6.8

18.9

0.5

9.4

10.9

10.5

6.8

2.8
3.4

16.3

1.9

-0.6

-5.1

6.5

12.9

14.6

14.7

11.8

9.5

21.9

10.8

11.0

11.7

28.3

54.5

341.5
349.7
9.0

357.3

2-95

8.9

10.3

10.6

7.7

10.5

18.6
17.4

3-95

11.1

12.7

13.1

10.5

13,3

20.1

4-95

10.8

12.2

12.6

10.2

12.7

18.9

12.2

13.7

13.7

11.1

9.0

19.4

9.8

9.8

10.0

20.1

27.5

5.3

1-96

11.3

12.7

13.1

10.8

13.2

19.0

12.9

14.3

14.3

12.0

10 2

19.5

11.3

11.5

12.0

20.2

25.1

12.6

20.4

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

Corporate Profits After Tax with Capital Consumption and Inventory Valuation Adjustments.
First quarter data are final estimates.
Revised from first quarter 1993 to the present.

-4.0 -15.4

342.7
348.1
388.1
393.1
411.8

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5, 1996

Corporate Profits and Net Cash Flow
(Billions of Dollars)
Inventory
Valuation
Adjustment

Capital
Consumption
Adjustment

Corporate
Profits(1)

After-Tax
Profits(1)

Dividends

Capital
Consumption

1993: 1
2
3
4

427.4
447.8
469.6
512.8

275.9
285.2
310.3
331.1

190.2
195.8
200.2
202.9

409.5
414.2
422.7
421.4

-14.6
-15.6
7.9
-4.0

5.0
5.8
3.8
12.3

509.8
519.2
524.9
553.6

1994: 1
2
3
4

459.7
534.3
553.1
570.9

288.3
341.5
349.7
357.3

204.4
208.8
212.5
218.5

455.4
432.2
437.1
439.3

-3.9
-9.8
-16.5
-22.8

-11.8
18.1
18.8
21.3

543.2
574.8
590.9
600.8

1995: 1
2
3
4

560.0
562.3
612.5
611.8

342.7
348.1
388.1
393.1

221.7
224.6
228.5
234.7

444.4
451.3
456.9
463.6

-51.9
-42.3
-9.3
-8.8

17.4
15.0
14.6
16.5

617.3
617.0
625.8
630.8

1996: 1
2

645.1
NA

411.8
NA

239.9
243.1

465.6
470.6

-17.4
-15.8

20.4
NA

654.8
NA

Net
Cash Flow

(1) Profits data includes the Inventory Valuation Adjustment and Capital Consumption Adjustment.
The latter is the excess of depreciation allowances over Capital Consumption.
Net Cash Flow equals After-Tax Corporate Profits less Dividends, less the Inventory Valuation Adjustment, plus Capital Consumption.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St.Louis

24

Government Deficit(-)/Surplus( + )
Seasonally Adjusted
Billions of Dollars

Billions of Dollars

National income accounts basis

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Governm ent Debt
(Billions of Dollars)
Seasonally Adjusted End of Month Totals
Gross
Federal
Debt

Federal Debt held
by Agencies
and Trusts

Net
Federal
Debt

1993: March
June
September
December

4234.6
4349.4
4425.7
4519.4

1061.4
1088.2
1119.4
1142.8

3173.9
3263.1
3307.0
3373.4

311.4
324.6
330.1
337.5

2875.4
2949.9
2993.0
3046.4

562.1
570.9
593.8
619.2

1994: March
June
September
December

4582.0
4641.1
4707.1
4784.3

1162.4
1190.2
1215.4
1245.9

3420.0
3452.4
3493.2
3535.0

349.2
352.7
360.4
367.6

3074.0
3099.7
3138.2
3167.1

630.7
637.3
657.9
684.4

1995: March
June
September
December

4871.4
4944.9
4989.4
4972.9

1277.7
1302.5
1322.9
1293.5

3594.4
3643.6
3668.4
3675.8

376.1
382.7
380.1
384.6

3217.7
3256.6
3290.8
3293.8

725.8
790.0
850.8
856.3

1996: March

5125.8

1378.7

3748.1

387.8

3360.4

925.8

Federal Debt
held by Federal
Reserve Banks

Federal Debt
Federal Debt
held by Private held by Foreign
Investors
Investors

Columns may not add because each component is seasonally adjusted separately. Gross federal debt equals debt held by agencies and trusts plus
net federal debt.
Net federal debt equals debt held by Federal Reserve banks plus debt held by private investors (which includes debt held by foreign investors).
Sources: Orginal data may be found in the TREASURY BULLETIN and also in the FEDERAL RESERVE BULLETIN; seasonally adjusted series prepared
by this Bank.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

25

Government Budgets
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)
Federal

Federal, State and Local

Receipts
1183.4
1193.1
1187.0
1230.5

Expenditures
1450.7
1472.8
1484.5
1509.5

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-267.4
-279.6
-297.5
-279.0

3
4

1225.2
1271.3
1280.3
1324.4

1509.7
1521.5
1534.7
1557.7

-284.5
-250.2
-254.4
-233.3

1916.8
1977.4
1995.0
2057.1

2120.9
2138.5
2154.5
2175.4

-204.0
-161.0
-159.5
-118.3

177.3
181.5
187.2
197.0

1994:1
2
3
4

1321.9
1382.8
1387.1
1416.3

1534.6
1552.5
1575.7
1606.4

-212.7
-169.6
-188.5
-190.1

2053.3
2129.1
2143.3
2184.4

2171.2
2193.5
2232.2
2275.2

-117.9
-64.4
-88.9
-90.7

192.2
197.5
196.9
196.9

1995:1
2
3
4

1449.3
1483.2
1486.6
1494.7

1621.9
1644.3
1645.0
1649.3

-172.6
-161.1
-158.5
-154.5

2224.4
2266.7
2284.2
2298.6

2298.0
2328.7
2348.8
2365.0

-73.7
-62.1
-64.6
-66.4

205.8
211.3
203.8
203.3

1996:1
2

1523.1
NA

1678.3
1700.3

-155.2
NA

2338.5
NA

2402.7
2425.8

-64.3
NA

207.6
219.3

1992:1
2
3
4
1993:1
2

Receipts
1841.4
1858.9
1860.1
1921.8

Expenditures
2024.0
2051.9
2075.7
2109.1

S urplus/
Deficit(-)
-182.6
-193.0
-215.5
-187.3

G rants-in-Aid (1)
165.4
173.0
174.2
176.3

(1) Federal Grants-in-Aid to state and local government are part of federal expenditures and state and local receipts, but are netted out in computing total
government measures.

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Federal Budgets
Fiscal Years
(Billions of Dollars; Unified Budget Basis)

Calendar Years
(Billions of Dollars; National Income Account Basis)

Outlays
1252.5

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-221.2

Receipts
1129.8

Expenditures

1990

Receipts
1031.3

1284.5

Surplus/
Deficit(-)
-154.7

1991

1054.3

1323.6

-269.4

1149.0

1345.0

-196.0

1992

1090.5

1380.9

-290.4

1198.5

1479.4

-280.9

1993

1153.5

1408.7

-255.1

1275.3

1530.9

-255.6

1994

1257.7

1460.8

-203.1

1377.0

1567.3

-190.2

1995

1355.2

1519.1

-163.9

1478.4

1640.1

-161.7

Note: Fiscal years refer to the budget year which runs October 1 through September 30.
Total budget outlays include federal entities that are off budget.




Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

26

Federal Government Receipts
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter

V

2-91

3-91

4-91

2-92

1-92

3*91
4-91

34
3.2
4,8

5.5

8.0

2-92

4.4

4.7

5.6

3.1

3.0

3,0

0.6

-2.0

4-92

5.1

5.4

6.0

5.3

6.4

! 4.1
5.5

4.2

4.4

3.5

3.6

1-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

3.3

3*92

4-92

Billions of Dollars
Annual Rates
4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

3.0

1-92

3-92

Initial Quarter
2-93 3-93 4-93

,

2-93

:

:

1,152.3
1,160.9

:
■

.

1 •• II

ü Ü

15.5
& & i -4

5.8

6.2

5.9

6.6

5.4

5.8

5.4

6.4

6.8

6.6

7.2

9.2

1-94
2-94

5.4

5.6

5.9

5.7

6.9

7.2

7.2

6.0
7.7

7.4

6.6

3-94

6,1

6.4

6.7

6.6

4-94

6.3

6.6

6.9

6.8

1-95

6.5

6.8

7,1

2-95

6.7

7.0

3-95

6.4

6.6

9.6

mm!

-

v.;

' ' s^
8 S8 8
8S

***& £

1,187.0

,

1,230.5
«y

5.8

4-93

1,183.4

1,193.1

MM
61

3-93

:

6.7

-

1,225.2
1,271.3

15.9

1,280.3

9.2

2.9

7.6

10.9

8.5

14.5

5-9
8.1

79

5.3

10.2

8.8

6.6
10.8

-0.8

91

9.0

19.7

6.9
7.1

8.1

7.1

8.6

7.2

8.3

6.4

10.1

1.2

8.2

7.3

8.6

7.5

8.4

6.9

9.6

4.9

8.7

7.0

7.3

8.3

8.8

7,8

8.6

7.5

9.6

6.5

9,2

9.7

7.3

7.2

7.5

8.4

7.5
7.8

8.9

8.0

8.8

7.8

9.6

7.3

9.3

9.7

9.7

6.8

6.7

7.0

7.8

7,1

8.0

7.2

7.8

6.8

8.1

6.0

7.2

6.7

5.2

1,324.4
1,321.9
1,382.8
1,387.1
1,416.3
1,449.3
1,483.2
0.9

1,486.6
1,494.7

4-95

6.2

6.3

6.5

6.4

6.7

73

6.7

7.5

67

7.1

6.2

7.3

53

62

5.5

4.2

1.6

2.2

1-96

6.2

6.4

6.6

65

6.7

7.4

6.8

7.5

6.8

7.2

6.4

7.3

5.7

6.4

6.0

5.1

3.6

5.0

7.8

2-91

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1,523.1

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5,1996

First quarter data are final estimates.

Federal Government Current Expenditures
(Compound Annual Rates of Change)
Terminal
Quarter
3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

4-91
1-92

10.5

10.7
8.1

47

8.3

7.8

5.4

5.0

Annual Rates
4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

3.2

4-92

2-93

6.2

8.7

1-93

15.4

2-92
3-92

4-92

10.2
12.7

3-92

Billions of Dollars
Initial Quarter
3-93 4-93 1-94 2-94 3-94
1399.8
1450.7

1472.8
1484.5
6.9

1509#

1-93

6.9

6.2

4.1

3.4

3.4

0.1

2-93

6.3

5.7

3.9

3.3

3.3

1,6

3J2

3-93

6.0

5.4

3.8

3.3

3.4

2.2

3.3

3.5

4-93

6.0

5.5

4.2

3.8

3.9

3.2

4.3

4.8

6.1

1-94

4.8

4.2

2.9

2.4

2.2

1.3

1.6

1.1

-0.0

-5.8

2-94

4,8

4.2

3.1

2.7

2.6

1.9

2,3

2.0

-0.7
1.5

5.4
6.3
5.7

7.1
6.0

5.7

5*

1509.7

.

m

, 1534.6
4.7

3-94

4.9

4.4

3.4

3.0

3.0

2.5

2.9

2.8

1.5
2.7

4*94

4.7

3.8

3.5

3.6

3.7

3.7

4.6

3.8

3.6

3.6

:H I
3.2

3.6

1-95

5.1
5.0

3.6

3.7

3.8

3,1
3.3

2-95

5.1

4.7

3.9

3,7

3.8

35

3,9

4.0

4.0

3.7

3-95

4.8

4.4

3.7

3.5

3.5

32

3.5

3.5

3.5

3.2

4.7

4.7

4-95

4.5

4.2

3.5

3.3

3,0

3.3

3.3

3.3

Z9

4.2

4.1

1-96

4.7

4.4

3.7

3.5

3.3
3.6

3.3

3.6

3.6

3.6

3.4

4.6

4.6

4.3

3.6

3.5

2.8

4.1

7.2

2-96

4.7

4.4

3.8

3.7

3.7

3.5

3.7

3.8

3,8

3.6

4.7

4.7

4.4

m

3.8

3.4

4.5

6.3

5.3

3-91

4-91

1-92

2-92

3-92

4-92

1-93

2-93

3-93

4-93

1-94

2-94

3-94

4-94

1-95

2-95

3-95

4-95

1-96

Second quarter data are advance estimates.

DigitizedRevised from first quarter 1993 to the present.
for FRASER


i

1534.7

97

"
6.1

t

''ifk W Ê M
1575.7

8.0
6.0

1606,4
3.9

1621.9

4.8

5,6

4.4

32

2.9

3.7

2.7

0.2

1645.0
1678.3
1700.3

Prepared by Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
August 5,1996

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