Full text of National Economic Trends : August 1983
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Inflation has declined sharply daring the past two years, suggesting the emergence o f a sustained period o f lo w er inflation. The G N P im plicit deflato r rose 4.1 percent in the year ending in 11/1983, down sharply from a peak o f 10.4 percent in the year ending in 1/1981. This decline matches the fa ll to 4.7 percent in 1976 from a peak o f 11 percent in the year ending in 1/1975. The recent decline in inflation is not unprecedented, however, nor does it necessarily indicate a transition to a permanent low inflation environment; for exam ple, follow ing the 1975-76 decline, price increases reaccelerated rapidly, surging to an 8.5 percent rate two years la te r. A major factor influencing inflation is the trend rate o f monetary expansion. For exam ple, the 1975-76 decline in inflation and the acceleration that followed were associated, in part, with a decline in the three-year trend o f money ( M l ) growth from about 7 percent in early 1974 to about 5 percent in 1978 and the subsequent surge to a peak at over 8 percent late in 1979. The latest decline in inflation was preceded by a decline from that trend rate o f money growth to about 6 percent in III/1982. Both o f the sharp changes in the inflation rate also were influenced strongly by energy price developments. In each instance, the previous double-digit rate o f price increases was associated with adjustments to about a 50 percent increase in the producer price o f fuels and related products and pow er relative to the price o f business output. The latest decline was reinforced by the temporary depressing e ffe c ts o f a 16 percent decline in relative energy prices from 11/1981 to 11/1983. Recent labor cost developments also provide a misleading indication o f the prospects for inflation. Labor cost increases often are monitored as an indicator o f future inflation, but in the irr'tial stages o f a recovery they are a poor guide. Over long periods, the rate o f increase o f prices roughly matches increases in unit labor costs. For example, from 1955 to 1982, both unit labor costs and the G N P deflator rose at an average 4.6 percent rate. Unit labor costs are strongly cyclical, however, moving down sharply at the end o f recessions and in the initial stage o f recovery. In the tw o quarters since the recovery began in IV /1982, unit labor costs rose at only a 1.5 percent rate, 3 percentage points lower than the rate o f increase o f prices during the sam e period. Following seven previous recessions, prices rose an average o f 4.5 percentage points faster than unit labor costs during the first two quarters o f recovery. Indeed, during the same period in five o f the seven previous recoveries, unit labor costs fell, averaging a 2.3 percent rate o f decline. Such a divergence typically is not reflected in a subsequent slowing in inflation to bring the two measures in line; instead, unit labor costs tend to accelerate to equal and later to exceed the inflation rate. — John A . Tatom total civilian employment COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL_______________________________________________________________ I N I T I A L MONTH_____________________________________________________________________THOUSANDS MONTH OF PERSONS 12-81 1- 82 2- 82 5- 8 2 6 - 8 2 3-82 4- 8 2 7- 82 1- 8 3 2- 8 3 3-83 4-83 5- 8 3 6 - 8 3 8- 8 2 9 - 8 2 10- 82 11- 82 12- 82 0. 1 99 , 688 0. 1 0.1 -0.3 -0.5 -1.2 - 0 .6 -0.8 -1.3 CO ro 2 - 82 3- 82 ■t" 1 1- 82 99, 695 99 , 597 99 , 484 -I. 4 ___ 9 9 , 9 9 ^ 5- 8 2 0. 8 0.9 1. 2 2. ' 4 6. 3 6- 8 2 0.0 -0.0 -0.0 0. 3 1. 2 -3.7 7- 82 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -0.'0 0.4 -2.4 8- 8 2 0.3. -0.0 -0.0 2 0.6 -1.2 0.0 1. 2 9- 82 -0.2 -0.2 -0.3 -o. 1 0. 1 -1.3 -0.6 -0.3 -1.7 10-82 -0.6 -0.7 -0.8 - 0 .'7 -0.6 -2.0 -1.5 -1.6 -3.0 -4.3 11-82 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -0.'7 -0.6 -1.7 -1.3 -1.4 -2.2 -2.4 12- 82 -0.6 -0.7 -0.7 -o. 7 -0.6 -1.5 -1.2 -1.2 -1.8 -1.8 -0.5 -0.5 1 -8 3 -0.5 —0 •6 -0.6 - o. <b -0.5 -1.3 -1.0 -1.0 -1.4 -1.3 -0.3 -0.2 0. 1 2- 83 —0 . 5 —0 . 6 —0 . 6 - o. <i> —0 . 5 -1.2 -0.9 -0.9 -1.2 -1.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.2 _-0.J5 0.0 0.0 99. 681 99 , 588 -1.1 99 . 683 __ 99» 543 99, 176 99 , 1 3 ^ -0.5 99 , 093 9 9 , 103 99 , 063 3- 83 -0.5 -0.5 -0.5 -0.'5 -0.4 -l.l -0.8 -0.7 -1.0 -0.9 -0.2 -0.1 4 - 83 -0.2 -0.2 -0.2 - 0 . ;L -0.0 -0.6 -0.3 -0.2 -0.3 -0.1 0.6 0.8 1. 1 ___ 1. 4 ___ 2. 4 ___ 4 . 4 5- 8 3 -0.1 -0.1 -0. 1 - o. <3 0.1 -0.4 -0.1 -0.0 -0.2 0.0 0.7 0.9 1.1 6- 6 3 0. 7 0.8 0.8 l.<D 1. 1 0.7 1. 1 1. 3 1. 3 1. 7 2.4 2.9 3.4 4. 1 5. 3 7.0 8.3 15. 9 7-83 1 .0 1 .1 1. 1 l.:5 1.4 1. 1 1. 5 1. 7 1. 8 2. 1 2. 8 3.3 3. 8 4.5 5. 5 6.8 7.6 10. 9 12-81 1- 82 4- 82 5- 82 6- 82 7- 82 8- 82 9- 8 2 10- 82 11- 82 12- 82 1- 83 2- 83 3- 8 3 2- 82 3-82 _1 . 4 99 , 103 0. 5 2.0 99 , 458 2. 8 ___ 1. 2 9 9 , 557 100. 786 6.1 101, 285 6- 83 4 - 8 3 ~~5—83~ I N I T I A L MONTH PAYROLL EMPLOYMENT COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL MÔNTH 12-81 I N I T I A L MONTH 1- 82 2- 8 2 3- 8 2 4- 8 2 5- 8 2 6- 8 2 7-82 8-82 9- 82 10- 82 1HÜUSANÜS PfcRiUNS 11- 82 12-82 1-83 2-83 3-93 4- 83 6-83 1- 82 -A. 3 2-82 -2.1 0.3 3-82 -2.3 -1 .2 -2.8 4-82 -2.3 -1.6 -2.6 -2.4 5- 8 2 -1.9 - 1 .3 -1.8 -1.3 -0.1 6-82 -2.1 -1 .6 -2.1 -1.9 -1.6 -3.2 7- 8 2 -2.4 -2.1 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -3.7 8- 8 2 -2.4 -2.1 -2.5 -2.5 -2.5 -3.3 -3.4 -2.5 9-82 -2.2 -1.9 -2.2 -2.1 -2.1 -2.6 -2.4 -1.4 -0.4 10- 82 -2.4 -2.1 -2.4 -2.4 -2.4 -2.9 -2.8 -2.3 -2.2 -3.9 11- 82 -2.3 -2.1 -2.4 -2.4 -2.3 -2.7 -2.6 -2.2 -2.1 -3.0 -2.0 12- 82 -2.3 -2.1 -2.3 -2.3 -2.3 -2.6 -2.5 -2.1 -2.0 -2.5 -1.8 -1.6 1- 83 -1.9 -1.7 -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.9 -1.7 -1.3 -1.0 -1.2 -0.2 0.7 3. 0 2- 8 3 -1.9 -1.7 -1.8 -1.8 -1.7 -1.9 -1.7 -1.3 -1.2 -1.3 -0.6 -0.2 0. 5 -1.9 3-83 -1.7 -1.5 -1.6 -1.5 -1.5 -1.6 -1.4 -l.l -0.9 -0.9 -0.3 0.1 0.7 -0.5 0.9 4-83 -1.4 -1.2 -1.3 -1.1 -1.0 -1.1 -0. 9 -0.5 -0.3 -0.3 0.3 0. 8 1. 4 0.9 2.4 5- 83 -1.0 -0.8 -0. 9 -0.7 -0.6 -0.7 -0.4 -0.0 0.2 0. 3 0.9 1.4 2. 1 1. 8 3. 1 4.2 4.6 6-83 -0.7 -0.4 -0.5 -0.3 -0.2 -0.2 0. 1 0.5 0.8 0.9 1.5 2.0 2. 6 2. 6 3.7 4.7 5. 1 5. 7 7-83 -0.3 -0.1 -0. 1 0. 3 0.6 1.0 1. 3 1. 5 2.1 2.6 3. 2 4.3 5.2 5.6 6.2 6.7 12-81 1- 82 2- 32 5- 02 6-82 7-82 8- 8 2 9- 8 2 10- 82 11-82 12-82 2-83 3- 8 3 4- 83 5-8 3 6-83 90 . 396 V O. 417 9 0 . 207 90, 024 0. 1 3-*2 0.3 4 90, 016 89, 775 -4. 3 89, 450 89. 264 89. 235 I nT T I A L P- 68, 930 88. 785 88, 665 68, 886 I-SÌT 88, 745 8 8 , 814 3.8 89 , 090 89, 421 8 9, 032^ 9 0 . 319 ^ mS mT h Pk EL IMINÀR V PR £ PA REO BY F E D E R A L A UGUST 9 , 1983 2 RESERVE bANK, UP S I. LO UIS EMPLOYMENT RATIO SCALE MILLIONS I 15 I 10 OF RATIO PERSONS S E A S ONA L L Y ADJ US TED I 1 $i ?: I $ ii § M I L L IONS I % OF SCALE PERSONS \ \ * s $ 5 * ^ $ 105 1 15 1 10 105 +! . 7X TOiTAL X 100 ¥•5. 5z +2,.01 ^ 0 -------- . 'Y " '101.3 -/. JX -2.7X 95 95 t +2. +/. 9X ox *4. 3Z r z 90 -3.2X 90 -/. 9X 4. /AS 85 100 85 PAYI*OLL 80 80 75 * $ ii 70 t 1 975 t 1976 1977 1978 1979 % % s is § * H t t < < t 1980 1981 t 1982 t 75 70 1983 SOURCE: 0 . $ . DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIO DS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt JULY PR ELIM IN A R Y PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO U IS UNEMPLOYMENT RATE SEASONALLY PERCENT ADJUSTED PERCENT 12.0 . I I .0 10. 10.0 9. 9.0 8. 8.0 7. 7.0 6. 6.0 5. 5.0 1I 4. 4.0 1975 1976 19 77 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 SOURCE; U .S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF C IV IL IA N LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTED: JULY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO U IS 3 CONSOHtR PRICE INDEX FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS, SEASONALLY ADJUSTED* _____________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE______________________ TERMINAL________________________________________________________ I N I T IA L M RON TH 3-82 4- 82 12-81 1- 82 6— 8 2 7 - 8 2 2- 82 5- 82 8- 82 1- 62 3.5 2- 82 2*1 0.9 3- 82 1.3 0.2 4-82 1. 7 I.1 1. 3 3.0 5- 82 3. 9 4.0 5.0 7.9 13. 0 6-82 5. 5 5.9 7.2 9.8 13. 4 13. 8 7-82 5. 7 6.1 7.2 9.2 11. 3 10. 5 8- 82 5. 5 5 .8 6.6 8. 1 9.4 8. 2 5.5 3.8 9- 82 5. 0 5. 2 5. 8 6.9 7. 7 6.4 4.1 2.5 O N T 9- 82 10- 82 H _____________________________________________________________ 1967*100 11-82 12- 82 1- 8 3 2-83 3-83 4-83 5-83 283. 2 283. 4 -0.4 W f l 2 84. 0 286. 9 ¿90. 0 7.3 291. 7 2 92. 6 292. 9 1. 2 10- 82 5. 0 5. 2 5.7 6.6 7.2 6. 1 4.3 3.3 3. 1 5. 0 11- 82 4. 5 4.6 5. 1 5. 8 6. 2 5. 1 3.4 2.5 2. 1 2. 5 0.0 12- 82 3. 9 3.9 4.2 4.7 5.0 3. 9 2.3 1.3 0. 7 0.5 -1.6 4.0 4.5 294. 1 294. 1 -3.2 293. 3 1- 83 3. 7 3.7 4.6 3.6 2.3 1.4 1. 0 0.9 -0.4 -0.6 2. 1 2-83 3.3 3.3 3.5 3.8 3. 9 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.2 -0.9 - 1 .2 -0.2 -2.4 3-83 3.2 3. 1 3. 3 3.6 3. 7 2.8 1.7 1.0 0. 6 0.5 -0.4 -0.5 0.4 -0.4 4-83 3. 4 3.4 3.6 3. 9 4.0 3.2 2.2 1.6 1. 4 1. 4 0.8 1.0 2. 1 2. 1 4 . 4 ___ 7. 2 5- 8 3 3. 6 3.6 3.8 4. 1 4.2 3.5 2.6 2.1 2.0 2.1 1.6 1. 9 3. 0 3. 2 5. 1 6 . 9 ___6 6-83 3.5 3.5 3. 7 4. 0 4. 1 3.4 2.6 2.2 2.0 2. 1 1.7 2.0 2. 9 3. 0 4.5 5.4 4.6 2. 5 7-83 3.6 3 .6 3. 8 4.0 4. 1 3.5 2.8 2.4 2. 3 2. 4 2.1 2.4 3. 2 3.4 4.6 5.3 4.7 3. 7 Z~-8~2 ' 3 - 8 2 4- 82 5- 82 6- 8 2 7-8 2 8- 82 9- 82 10-8 2 11- 82 12-82 1- 83 2-83 3-83 4- 93 12-81 6-83 1—B2~ ♦DATA BEGINNING 1983 INCORPORAT fcS RENTAL EQUIVALENCE 293. 8 293. 2 1.6 293. 6 _______2 9 5 . 3 _____ 296. 9 297. 5 4. 9 298. 7 ^ 8 3 ~ 6-83 I N I T I A L MONTH MEASURE. P K Ç T i m r w F fcütRÄLRESfc KV E ÖANK OF S T . AUGUST 23, !L983 LOUIS PROLHJCER~PBTtnr I NDEX, FI NI SHEO GOODS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED* COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL HUN 1H 12-81 I N I T I A L MONTH 1- 82 2- 82 3- 8 2 4- 8 2 5- 82 6- 8 2 7- 8 2 1- 82 4. 9 2- 8 2 2. 9 0.9 3-82 0. 9 -1.1 -3.0 4-82 1. 0 -0.3 -0.9 1.3 5- 8 2 0. 8 -0.2 —0 . 6 0.7 0.0 6-82 2. 7 2.3 2.6 4.6 6.2 12. 8 7-82 3. 1 2.8 3.2 4.8 6. 1 9. 2 5.7 8-82 3. 4 3.2 3.6 5.0 6.0 8. 0 5.7 5.7 4.2 3.5 8- 8 2 9 - 8 2 10- 82 19i>7 = ICO 11- 82 12-82 1- 8 3 2- 83 3-83 4- 8 3 5- 8 3 6-8J 27 7. 3 277. 5 276. 8 277. 1 277. 1 279. 9 281 .2 282. 5 9-82 3. 2 3.0 3.3 4.4 5.0 6. 3 10- 82 3. 3 3.1 3.4 4.4 4.9 5.9 4.2 3.8 2. 8 4. 3 11- 82 3. 7 3.6 3.9 4.8 5. 3 6.2 4.9 4.7 4.3 5. 9 7.4 12- 82 3. 7 3.6 3.9 4.7 5. 1 5. 8 4.7 4.5. 4.2 5. 2 5. 6 3. 8 1-83 2. 4 2.2 2.3 2.8 3.0 3.4 2. 1 1. 5 0.7 0. 5 -0.7 -4.5 -12.2 2-83 2. 4 2.2 2.3 2.8 2.9 3. 2 2.1 1.6 0.9 0.9 0.0 -2.4 -5.3 3-83 2. 0 1. 8 1.8 2.2 2.3 2.6 1.5 1.0 0.3 0. 1 -0.7 -2.6 -4.7 -0.6 -3.3 4-83 1.8 1.6 1. 6 2.0 2. 1 2.2 1. 2 0.8 0. 2 0.0 -0.7 -2.3 -3.7 -0.7 -2.1 -0.8 5-83 1. 9 1.7 1. 8 2.1 2. 2 2.4 1.5 1.1 0.6 0.5 -0.1 -1.3 -2.2 0.4 -0.1 1.5 3.9 6-83 2. 1 2.0 2.0 2.4 2.4 2.6 1. 8 1.5 1. 1 1.0 0.6 -0.3 - 1 .0 1. 4 1. 3 2.9 4.8 5. 6 7-83 2. 1 1.9 2.0 2.3 2.4 2.5 1. 8 1.5 1. 1 1. 1 0.7 -0.1 -0.7 1. 4 1. 3 2.5 3.6 3. 4 12-81 1- 82 2-82 3— 82 4-82 5-8Z 6-82 7-52 ' 8- 52' 9- 82^10~B2^ 11- 82 12- 52 ~ 1 - 8 3 2-8V 3-8 3 4- 53 1. 3 282. 8 283. 8 285. 5 286. 4 283. 3 2. 1 263. 8 2 63. 0 282. 8 283. 7 285. 0 1 .3 2 8 5 . 3 _____ 5 - a T " 6-83 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------- r N T T T T T T ^ W l T r ♦DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO REVI SED TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING PR'EPÄR ED“ ô Ÿ FEDÌ fiSU* R t St - V t b A N K “ up AUGUST 12 , 1993 sT . luuI s RATIO PR ICES SCALE 1967-100 SEASONALLY CONSUMER P R IC E IN D E X C P I- U DATA B E G IN N IN G DATA P LO T T E D . IN D IC A T E D . JULY P R EP A R ED BY FED ER A L RATIO PRODUCER SCALE P ER C E N T A G ES ARE ANNUAL R A T E S Of C H A # M LA T ES T DATA P LO T T E D , SCALE 1967-100 B E G IN N IN G JANUARY 197« 1$ FOK ALL URBAN COMSUWERS ( C P l - U ) . 1083 IN CORPORATE A RENTAL E Q U IV A L E N C E M EASURE FOR H O ttE O tN E R S H IP C O S T S . P ER C E N T A G ES ARE ANNUAL R A T E S Of CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S LA T ES T RATIO ADJUSTEO j g LY RESERVE 6 A M PRICES FOR P E R IO D S L O U IS RATIO SCALE I NO IC A T E D . P R EP A JU D BY FED ER A L R E S E R V E 5 OF S T . IA M K O f S T . L » ilS PRODUCER PRTCE I NDEX, F I NI S H ED CONSUWTER FOODS - SEASONALLY ADJUSTED* COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH 12- 81 1- 82 14*6 I N I T I A L MONTH 1- 82 2- 82 3-82 4- 82 5- 82 6-82 7-8 2 2- 82 11.1 7. 8 6. 6 2. 8 - 1 .8 4-S2 10.2 8.7 9. 2 21.4 12-82 1- 8 3 2- 8 3 3-83 4-8 3 5-8 3 257. 8 261. 6 5-82 8.7 7.3 7.2 12.0 3.3 8. 2 7.0 6.8 9.8 4.4 5. 6 7-82 4.0 2.4 1. 3 2.1 -3.6 -6.9 -•17.9 -9.0 0.9 -7.7 -2.1 8- 8 2 3. 6 2.2 1 .2 1.9 -2.5 1 ¿ 62. 3 -4.3 2. 6 1. 2 0.3 0.7 -3.0 -4.5 2 6 3. 5 259. 2 259. 4 -5.0 258. 3 10- 82 2. 3 1.0 0.2 0.5 -2.6 -3.7 -5.9 -1.5 -2.7 -0.5 11- 82 2. 1 0.9 0 .2 0.5 -2.2 -3.1 -4.8 -1.2 -1.8 -0.2 0.0 12- 82 2. 2 1. 1 0.5 0.7 -1.6 -2.3 -3.5 -0.4 -0.7 0. 8 1. 4 2.8 1- 83 1. 8 0 .8 0 .2 0.4 -1.7 -2.3 -3.4 -0.7 - 1 . 0 0 .0 0.2 0 .2 2-83 2 .6 1.7 1 .2 1.5 -0.3 -0.7 -1.5 1. 1 1 .2 2. 4 3.2 4.2 5.0 12 . 8 3- 8 3 2 .6 1.7 1. 3 1.6 -0.1 -0.4 -1.1 1.3 1. 3 2.4 3.0 3.8 4. 1 7.4 2. 3 4-83 3. 2 2.5 2. 1 2.4 1. 0 0.8 0.3 2.6 2 .8 3. 9 4.7 5.7 6. 4 9.5 7.8 13 . 6 5-83 2.7 2.0 1 .6 1.8 0. 5 0.2 -0.2 1.7 1. 8 2. 7 3. 1 3.7 3. 8 5. 4 3. 1 3.5 6- 83 2. 1 1 .4 1. 0 1. 2 -0.1 -0.4 -0.9 0.8 0 .8 1.5 1. 7 2. 0 1.9 2. 7 -0.3 -6.6 7-83 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.6 —0 . 6 -0.9 -1.4 0.2 0. 1 0 .6 0.7 0.8 0. 5 1.0 -1.2 -2. 1 -6.8 - 7. 3 1 - 8 7 “ 2- 82 " 3- 82 4-62 5- 82 6- 8 2 7-S2 0"-$ 2 1-6 3 2- 83 3-83 4-83 5- 83 T2-8T 100 6 - 83 257. 4 6-82 CD 1967 » 9- 8 2 10- 82 11- 82 256 .2 3- 8 2 0 8-82 ¿ 58. 2 10-82 __ 2 5B.2 ___ 2 58. 8 -2.3 11^8? 12-82 253. 3 ¿ 60.9 0.3 2t>1.4 264. 2 -5.7 __2 6 2 . 9 ____ 261 .2 -7 . i ____259. 6 83 I N I T I A L MONTH ♦DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO REVISED TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING PRODUCER PRICE INDEX , F I NI SHED GOODS, EXCLUDING FOODS COMPOUHOED ANNUAL RATES OF CHA NGt TERMINAL TOTJTFf 12-81 1- 82 2 .2 2 - 82 0. 4 3-82 - 0 . 8 StASONALLY ,A OJUSTEO* I N I T I A L MONTH 1- 82 2- 82 3- 8 2 4- 82 5- 82 6- 8 2 7- 8 2 8- 82 9- 82 10- 82 1967 ^ 100 11- 82 12- 82 1- 83 2-83 3-83 4-83 5-8 3 282. 3 -1 .3 282. 0 -2.3 -3.4 -3.4 281. 2 4-82 -1.5 -2.7 -3.4 5 - 82 -1.4 -2.3 -2.7 -2.3 -1.3 6- 8 2 1. 1 0.9 1. 5 3.2 6 .6 15.1 7-8 2 2. 9 3. 1 4.0 5.9 9. 1 14. 8 14. 4 8-82 3. 4 3.6 4.4 6.1 8.6 12. 1 10 . 6 6.9 2 8 0. 4 ¿80. 1 283. 4 286. 6 283. 2 9- 8 2 3. 4 3 .5 4.2 5.6 7.4 9.7 8.0 4.9 3.0 10- 82 3.6 3.8 4.4 5.6 7. 2 9.0 7.5 5.3 4.5 6.0 11- 82 4. 1 4.4 5.0 6.1 7.5 9.0 7.9 6.3 6 .1 7. 7 9.5 12- 82 4. 2 4.3 4.9 5.9 7. 1 8.3 7.3 5.9 5.6 6. 5 6.8 4.2 1- 8 3 2. 5 2.6 2.9 3.6 4.4 5. 1 3.7 2.0 1. 1 0. 6 -1.1 -6.0 -15.2 2 - 83 2. 2 2.3 2.6 3.1 3. 8 4.4 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.2 -l.l - 4 .4 -8.5 -1.2 3-83 1. 8 1 .8 2.0 2.5 3. 0 3.4 2.2 0.8 -0.1 —0 . 6 -1.8 -4.4 -7.2 -2.9 -4.5 4-83 1. 4 1 .3 1. 5 1.9 2.3 2.7 1.5 0. 1 -0.7 -1.2 -2.3 -4.5 - 6 . 6 -3.5 -4.7 -4. 9 5-83 1. 7 1.6 1. 8 2.2 2.7 3.0 2.0 0.8 o.i -0.2 -1.1 -2.7 —4 . 0 -1.0 -1.0 0 . 8 6.9 6-83 2. 1 2.1 2.3 2.7 3. 2 3.5 2.6 1.6 I. 1 0. 9 0.3 -1 .0 -1.8 1. i 1. 7 3.8 8.4 10. 0 7- 8 3 2. 2 2 .2 2.4 2.8 3.2 3.6 2.7 1. 8 1.4 1.2 0.7 -0.4 -1.0 1 .6 2.2 3.9 7.0 7. 1 i 0—8 2 11- 82 1T -W Z 12-81 6 - •83 T - 8 7 '“7-BT7' 3-8 7 T 288. 9 9- 82 290. 3 2 92. 5 293. 5 28 9 . 5 1- 83 289. 2 2-8 3 288 .1 286. 9 3 - 8 3 ~4— 83 288. 5 5-8 3 29 0. 6 4 #2 6 - 291. 8 83 ♦DATA FOR FOUR MONTHS AGO REVISED TO REFLECT LATE REPORTING PREPARED SY FEDERAL R E S ’. V t AUGUST 1 1983 Z, 6 BANfT~OF~ST . LO U IS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION RATIO SCALE RATIO 1967-100 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 198 0 SCALE 1967-100 S EAS ONA LLY A D J U S T E D 1981 1982 1983 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIOOS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED. JULY PRELIM INA RY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO U IS I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T IO N ____________________________________________________________________ COHPOUNOED A N N U AL R A T E S OF CHANGE_____________________________________________________________________ T E R M IN A L ______________________________________________________________________I N I T I A L HQ NTH_______________________________________________________________________ 1 9 6 7 » 1 0 0 MONTH 12-81 1-8 2 2-B2 3 -8 2 4 -8 2 5-8 2 6-82 7- 8 2 8-8 2 9 -8 2 10-82 11-82 12-82 1 -8 3 2-8 3 3-8 3 4 -83 5-6 3 6-83 1 -8 2 -20 .4 2-82 -2 .1 2 0 .5 3-8 2 -4 .7 4.3 -9 .6 4 -8 2 -6 .5 -1 .4 -1 0 .8 5-82 -6 .9 -3 .2 -1 0 .0 -1 0 .1 6 -82 -6 .4 -3 .4 -8 .6 -8 .2 -6 .3 -4 .2 7-82 -5 .4 -2 .7 -6 .7 -6 .0 -3 .9 -1 .7 0.9 8 -82 -5 .2 -2 .8 -6 .2 -5 .5 -3 .8 -2 .3 -1 .3 -3 .4 9 -8 2 -5 .6 -3 .6 —6 . 6 -6 .1 -4 .9 -4 .0 -4 .0 -6 .3 10 -8 2 -6 .4 -4 .7 -7 .5 -7 .1 -6 .3 -5 .9 —6 . 3 - 8 . 6 -1 1 .1 -1 3 .1 11 -8 2 -6 .4 -4 .9 -7 .4 -7 .1 -6 .4 -6 .1 —6 . 4 -8 .2 -9 .7 -1 0 .0 -6 .8 12 -8 2 -5 .7 -4 .3 -6 .4 -6 .1 -5 .3 -4 .9 -5 .0 -6 .1 -6 .8 -6 .0 -2 .2 2.7 1 -8 3 -3 .9 -2 .3 -4 .2 -3 .6 -2 .7 -1 .9 -1 .6 -2 .0 -1 .7 0.2 5 .1 1 1 .6 21 .4 2-8 3 -3 .2 -1 .7 -3 .4 -2 .8 -1 .8 -1 .1 -0 .6 -0 .9 -0 .4 1.4 5.4 9.8 13 .6 6.3 3-83 -1 .9 -0 .4 -1 .9 -1 .2 -0 .2 0 .7 1 .3 1.3 2.0 4.0 7.8 1 1 .8 15 .0 1 1 .9 17 .8 4-83 -0 .4 l.l -0 .2 0.6 1 .7 2.7 3 .4 3 .7 4.6 6.7 10 .4 14 .3 17.3 16.0 21.2 24 .7 5-8 3 0.5 2 .0 0 .8 1.6 2 .8 3.7 4 .5 4.9 5.8 7.9 11 .2 14 .6 17.1 16 .1 1 9 .5 20*4 6-8 3 1.2 2.6 1. 6 2.4 3. 5 4.5 5.3 5.7 6 .6 8.5 11 .6 14.5 16. 6 15.7 18 .2 18.3 15 .2 14.1 7-83 2 .3 3.7 2 .8 3.6 4.8 5 .8 6.6 7.1 8 .1 1 0 .0 12 .9 15 .6 17.6 17.0 19 .2 19.6 17 .9 18 .8 2 3 .6 12-81 1-8 2 2-82 3-82 4 -8 2 5-8 2 7— 82 8—82 U - Ô 2 1 2 -8 2 1-8 Ï 2-83 3-8 3 4-83 5 -8 3 6-83 140.7 142.9 141.7 -1 2 .0 140.2 -8 .2 139.2 138.7 138.8 138.4 -9 .1 137.3 135.7 9 -8 2 1 0- 52 I N I T I A L HrONTvi 134.9 135.2 137.4 138.1 140.0 144.4 1 4 6 .OP 1 4 8 .6P ......... P - PRELIMINARY 142.6 1 6 .2 -----ÊRÉPAREO B Y F 6 D E R A L AUGUS T 16* 1 903 7 RES6RV6BANKOF ST.LOUIS PERSONAL RATIO SCALE TRILLIONS 2 MONTHLY TOTALS OF DOLLARS I NCOME AT ANNUAL seasonally RATIO RATES TRILLIONS ADJUS TED OF SCALE DOLLARS . 2.9 2.8 2 . 2. 2 . 2. 2. 2 . 2. 2 . 2. .7 .6 .5 .4 I . .3 I . . 2 I . . 1 I . 0 . 1 975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 SOURCEi U .S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt JULY PRELIM INA RY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO U IS PERSONAL INCOME COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE BI LL I ONS OF I N I T I A L MONTH ANNUAL RATES MONTH" 1- 82 2-82 3-82 0. 2 2-82 3. 0 5. 9 3-82 2. 9 4.3 2.7 3. 8 5.0 4.5 6.4 CD 1- 82 1 12-81 4- 82 5- 82 6- 8 2 7-82 8- 82 9- 82 10- 82 11- 82 12-82 1-83 2-83 3-83 5-2.3 _________ 2t548,i 2,530. 2 2,535.6 2»549*Q___ 5 - 82 4.9 6.1 6. 1 7.9 9.3 6-82 4.4 5.3 5. 1 5.9 5.7 2. 1 7-82 5. 0 5. 8 5.7 6.5 6.6 5. 2 8.4 2 , 56£*£ 2,572.5 4. 1 4.7 4.5 4.9 4.5 2.9 3.4 -1.4 9-82 4. 2 4.8 4.6 4.9 4.6 3. 5 3.9 1.8 5. 1 10- 82 4. 8 5.3 5.2 5.6 5. 5 4.7 5.4 4.4 7.4 9.8 11- 82 5. 0 5. 5 5.5 5.8 5.7 5. 1 5.7 5.1 7.4 8. 5 12- 82 5. 1 5.5 5.5 5.8 5. 7 5.2 5.7 5.2 6.9 7. 5 6.4 5.6 1- 83 4 .9 5. 3 5.3 5.6 5. 5 5.0 5.4 4.9 6. 2 6. 5 5.4 4.5 2- 8 3 4. 5 4.8 4. 8 4 .9 4. 8 4.3 4.6 4.1 5.0 5.0 3.8 2.7 1. 3 -0.9 3 “ 83 4. 8 5. 2 5. 1 5.3 5. 2 4.8 5. 1 4.7 5.6 5.7 4.9 4.3 3. 9 4.0 9.2 4-83 5.1 5.4 5. 4 5.6 5. 5 5. 2 5.5 5.1 6.0 6. 1 5.5 5. 2 5. 1 ___ 5 . 6 9.1 8.9 5-83 5. 7 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.3 6.0 6.4 6.2 7.1 7. 3 6.9 6.9 7. 2 8. 1 11. 3 12. 3 15.9 6- 83 5. 7 6.0 6.0 6.3 6.2 6.0 6.3 6.2 6.9 7. 2 6. 8 6.8 7. 0 7.7 9.9 10 . 2 10 . 8 6.0 7- 83 5. 8 6. 1 6. 1 6.3 6.3 6. 1 6.4 6. 2 6.9 7. 1 6.8 6.8 7. 0 7.6 9.3 9.4 9.5 6.5 5-Ô2 6- 8 2 7- 8 2' 8- 82 9- 82 10- 82 11-82 12-82 1- 8 3 2- 8 3 3-83 4- 83 5- 83 I-S2 " 2 - S 2 " 3- S2 '4-82' 2.58<>,7__ 2,597.4 ¿»i>17 , 8 __ 7.2 ¿*633,1 2,645. 0 3. 5 2,650.5 2,670.1 ¿JLÉ& 9*1 ...... . - 2 j 722 *3 2*735 . 6 ..7 •P— . ¿aI5A,Q£_ 6-83 p - 'P K trn ro n n fir __ 2,589. 8 8- 8 2 Y2-W ]T «>-93 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RÉSERVE BANK OP S T . LOUIS AUGUST 1 8 . 1983 8 RETAI L SALES RATIO RATIO SCALE BILLIONS OF DOLLARS S E A S ONAL L Y B I L L IONS ADJ US TED OF SCALE DOLLARS 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 SOURCE: U .S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIO DS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED. JUNE, JULY ADVANCE ESTIM ATE PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO UIS R E TA IL SALES COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL MONTH 12 -81 I N I T I A L MONTH DOLLARS 1 -8 ? 1- 8 2 -1 1 .3 2-82 4.5 2 3 .0 3-82 1.3 8.3 2-8 2 3— 82 4-82 5 -6 2 6-8 2 7-82 8- 8 2 9-82 10-82 11 -82 12-8 2 1-83 2-83 3-83 4-8 3 5-8 3 6-83 86^542 ___ ___ 86 1049_______ -4 .6 87 .701 4-82 3.7 9.2 2.9 11 .0 5 -8 2 9 .6 15 .5 13 .2 2 3 .3 6-82 2.8 5.8 1.9 4.2 7-82 4.1 6 .9 3.9 6.2 4.6 -8 .6 12 .4 8-82 2.9 5. 1 2.3 3.8 2.1 -7 .5 3.2 -5 .2 3.9 -3 .0 6.0 2.9 11.7 8 8 .^ 8 36.9 90 .8 1 3 _ 0.9 -2 5 .6 88 .6 0 3 89 .4 6 9 8 9 . 0 6 9 __ 9-8 2 3 .8 5 .9 3.6 5.1 1 0- 82 4 .8 6.8 4.9 6.3 5.6 0 .2 8.0 6 .6 13 .0 14.3 11-82 6.4 8 .3 6 .8 8.3 7 .9 3.7 10.9 10 .5 16 .3 18.6 23 .1 12-82 5 .8 7.5 6.0 7.3 6 .8 3.1 8 .9 8.2 11 .9 11.9 10.7 -0 .4 1 -8 3 5.1 6.6 5 .3 6.3 5.8 2.5 7 .2 6 .4 8.9 8.2 6.3 -1 .3 -2 .1 2-83 3.7 4.9 3.5 4 .3 3.7 0.5 4.4 3.3 4.8 3 .4 0.9 -5 .6 -8 .1 -1 3 .8 7.6 6.3 2.5 3.5 6 .5 89.897 9 0 ,9 0 5 _92j 492 9 7 .459 9 2 .2 9 5 3 -8 3 5.3 6 .6 5.5 6 .3 5.9 3.2 7 .1 6.4 8.2 4-83 6.8 8.2 7.2 8 .1 7.9 5.6 9 .3 9 .0 10 .9 10 .8 10 .2 7 .8 1 0 .0 1 4 .4 31.7 32 .1 5 -8 3 8 .7 10.1 9.3 10 .4 10.4 8.4 1 2 .2 12. 1 14 .3 14.6 14 .6 13 .3 16 .2 21.3 35.9 38.2 44 .7 6-83 8.4 9.7 8.9 9.9 9.8 8.0 11. 4 11 .3 13.1 13.2 13 .1 1 1 .8 1 3 .9 17.4 26 .8 25.4 22.1 3.1 7 -8 3 7.9 9.1 8.4 9.2 9.1 7.4 10. 4 10. 3 11.8 11.8 11 .5 10 .2 11 .8 14.3 20.9 1 8 .4 14.1 1.4 -0 .4 12-81 i-8 2 3-8 2 4-82 5— 82 6- 8 2 7 -8 2 8-8 2 9-82 10-82 11 -8 2 12 -82 1-8 3 2-83 3-83 4-83 5-83 6- 8 3 IN ITIA L 9 3 .2 6 3 3 1 .4 _ 98 .43 1 98.6 85 P 9 8 . 6:56t 1MONTH p - PRELIMINARY e - ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . AUGUST 1 0 , 1983 9 _ 9 1 .1 6 4 LOUIS _ _ HOURLY COMPENSATION* BUSINESS SECTOR* COMPOUNOED ANNUAL RATES Of CHANGE_______ TERMINAL OUARTÇR 1977 * 100 I N I T I A L QUARTER 3 -7 8 4-76 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3-7 9 4-7 9 1- 8 0 2-80 3-60 4 -8 0 1-01 2-81 3-81 4-01 1- 02 2-02 3-^2 4-^2 A lZ ß J.............. - .................... - _____ 112- 2 __ 10.5 il.! 2-T9 9. 8 9 .9 9.9 1 0 .0 9.4 10.2 9.7 9.6 9.1 9 .4 115. 2 8.6 _ 117 ,6 ) 1 1 . 120.b _ ______1 2 3 . 0 __ 8.6 9.9 9 .9 9.6 10.0 9.9 11 .2 10.2 10 .3 10.1 1 0 .5 10 .5 11 .5 11.9 3-80 10.1 10 .2 10 .0 10.3 10 .3 10 .9 1 0 .7 4-80 10.1 10 .1 9.9 10.2 10 .2 10 .6 1 0 .4 9.6 9.7 1-81 10.2 1 0 .2 10.1 10 .4 IP -7 10.6 1 0 .2 1 0 .5 11.3 2- 81 9.9 9 .9 9.8 10.0 9.9 1 0 .2 10.0 9.5 9.4 9.3 3 - 81 9.9 9.9 9.8 9 .9 9.9 10 .1 9 .9 9 .5 9.5 9.4 8.5 9.6 CD 1 9 .7 9.7 9.6 9 .7 9.6 9 .8 9 .6 9 .2 9.1 9.0 8.2 8.6 7.6 1-8 2 9.7 9.7 9 .6 9.7 9.6 9.7 9.6 9 .2 9.2 9. 1 8.5 8 .9 0.6 9.5 2-82 9.5 9.4 9.3 9 .4 9.3 9.4 9.2 8 .8 8.7 8.6 0.1 8.2 7.8 7.8 6.2 3-82 9.3 9.3 9.1 9.2 9.1 9.2 9 .0 8.6 8.5 8.4 7 .9 8.0 7 .6 7.5 6.6 6 .9 4-8 2 9.1 9.1 8.9 8.9 8.0 8 .9 8 .7 8.3 8.2 8.0 7 .6 7 .6 7.2 7.1 6.3 6.3 5 .7 1-03 0.9 0 .8 8.7 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.4 8.0 7.9 7.7 7.3 7.2 6.0 6.7 6.0 5.9 5.4 5.1 2-83 0.6 8.5 8.4 0 .4 8.2 8.2 8 .0 7 .7 7.5 7.3 6.9 6.0 6.4 6.2 5.6 5.4 4 .9 4.5 3.8 3-7 8 4-7 8 1 -7 9 2-79 3-7 9 4 -7 * 1-00 2-8 0 3-0 0 4-80 1-8 1 2- 8 1 3-8 1 4-8 1 1 -8 2 2-82 3 -8 2 4-82 1- 8 3 1-8 2 2-82 * 1- 8 0 2-80 o 4-79 w i 9.8 1-79 ! 4- 7 8 126. 3 129. 9 9 .6 ____ 132. 9 136. 0 __ __ _____ 1 4 2 ^ 2 __ 139^7 7V4 145. 5 148. 2 15 1. 6 153.9 156 .5 158 .7 16 0.7 1 6 2 . 2P INITIAL 0UÀRTÈIT ♦REVI SED FROM 1980. P - PRELIMINARY OUTPUT PER HOUR OF ALL PERSONS* BUSINESS SECTOR* COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL 0UA*TEK I N I T I A L QUARTER 3- 7 8 4-7 8 1 -7 9 2—79 4-7 8 0.8 1 -7 9 -0 .4 -1 .6 2-79 -1.1 -2 .0 3-79 -1 .3 -2 .0 -2 .2 -2 .0 4-7 9 -1 .2 -1 .7 -1 .7 -1 .4 3-79 4-7 9 1 -8 0 2-80 3-8 0 4-00 1-81 1977 « 10Q 2-9 1 3- 8 1 3-82 4-82 1 -8 3 100.8 10 0 .4 -2 .4 99 . 3 -0 .0 99 .1 1 -8 0 -0 .9 -1 .2 -l.l -0 .7 0.0 0.8 2-80 -1 .2 -1 .5 -1 .5 -1 .3 -l.l -1 .2 -3 .2 3-80 -0 .8 -l.l -1 .0 -0 .7 -0 .4 -0 .3 -0 .8 99.3 . 98*2 _95 .9 1 ♦6 4-0 0 -0 .7 -0 * 8 -0 .7 -0 .5 -0 .2 0 .0 -0 .3 1.2 0.8 1- 0 1 -0 .0 -0 .1 0 .0 0.4 0.0 1 .1 1.2 2 .7 3.3 5.8 2-81 0 .2 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.3 1.4 2.6 3.0 4.1 2 .4 3-81 0.4 0.5 0 .8 1.1 1.5 1.0 2.0 3 .1 3.4 4 .3 3.6 4-01 0 .2 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.0 1.1 l.l 1.8 1.9 2. 1 0.9 1 -8 2 0. 1 0*1 0.2 0.5 0 .7 0.9 0 .9 1.5 1.5 1.6 0 .6 0 .0 -2 .3 -0 .4 2-02 0.0 -0 .0 0 .1 0.3 0.5 0.6 0.6 1.1 1.0 1.1 0 .2 -0 .4 -2 .1 -1 .0 -1 .6 3-82 0 .1 0.1 0.2 0 .4 0.6 0.7 0.7 1.2 1 .1 1*1 0.4 0 .0 -1 .2 -0 .1 0 .0 1 .6 4-82 0.3 0.3 0.4 0 .6 O .f 0 .9 0 .9 1 .4 1. 3 1.4 0.8 0.5 -0 .3 0 .7 l.l 2 .4 3.2 99 .1 100*5...... 101.1 4.8 -4 .2 101 .2 101.1 10 0 .7 101.1 1-83 0.4 0.4 0.5 0.7 0.9 1. 0 1 .1 1 .5 1.4 1.5 1.0 0.8 0 .1 1.0 1.4 2.4 ?T* 0.6 0 .6 0 .7 0.9 1.1 1 .2 1.3 1 .7 1.7 1.8 1.3 1.2 0.7 1. 5 1.9 2 .8 3.2 3-7 8 4-78 1-79 2-7 9 3-7 9 4-7 9 1-40 2 -Ï0 3-8 0 4-80 2- 8 1 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 Ï-8 Î7 101 .9 2*4 102 .5 4*0 4-82 1 0 3 . 5P 1 -8 3 IN ITIA L ÖUM TtA PREPARED 6 Y FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . AUGUST 2* 1983 10 ____ 10 2.3 2-83 ♦REVISED FROM 19 8 0 . . 99 .a LOUIS P R O D UC T I V I T Y , R A T IO COMPENSATION, AND LABOR COSTS * SC AL E R A T IO SEASONALLY 1977 - 1 0 0 1975 1976 1977 1978 ADJUSTED 1 9 79 1980 1981 S OURCEi P E R CE N TA G ES LA TE ST ^ ARE ANNUAL R A TE S OF CHANGE FOR P E R I O D S DATA PLOT TE D. R EV IS E D FROM SC AL E 1977-100 U.S. 1982 1983 DEPARTMENT OF LABOR INDICATED. 2ND QUARTER P R E L I M I N A R Y 1980. PREP AR ED BY F EDERAL R E SE R VE BANK OF S T . LOU IS U N I T LABOR COSTS* BUSINESS SECTOR* ____________________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE________________________ JERWINAL____________________ ______________________________________________I N I T I A L QUARTER_________________________________________________________________ 1 9 7 7 » 1QQ ôu À'ftm " 3-78 4-78 1-79 2-79 3-79 4-79 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-91 2-91 3-91 4-81 1-82 2—02 3-82 4-82 1-83 4-7 8 9.5 1-79 11.1 12.8 2 -7 * 11.0 11.8 10*9 3-79 11.4 12.0 11*6 4-79 11*0 11.4 10*9 11.0 9.6 1-80 11.0 11.3 10*9 10*9 10.1 10*7 2-80 11.6 11.9 11*7 12*0 11*0 13*0 15*3 3-80 11.1 11*3 11*1 11*1 10*8 11*2 11*5 7*8 4-80 1 0 .« 11.0 10*7 10*7 10*4 10.6 10.5 8*2 8*6 1-81 10.3 10*3 10.0 9 .9 9*5 9*5 9.2 7*2 7*0 5*4 9*3 8*8 8*7 8 .3 6*7 6*3 5*2 5.0 11 1- 4 114*8 117.8 12*4 121*3 124*1 127*3 131*9 134*4 137*2 13 9. 0 2-81 9.8 9*8 9*5 3-81 9.3 9*3 9*0 8*8 8.3 8*1 7*7 6*3 5*9 5*0 4.8 4.6 4-81 9.5 9.5 9*2 9*1 8*7 • *6 8*3 7*2 7*1 6*7 7.2 8.3 12.0 1-82 9.6 9.6 9*3 9 .2 8*8 8*8 8*5 7*4 7*5 7*3 7.8 8*8 11.0 140*7 142*3 146*4 9*9 149*9 2—82 9.5 9*5 9*2 9*1 8*8 8*7 8*5 7*7 7*4 7*5 7.9 8*7 10.1 9*1 8*2 3-82 9.2 9*2 8*9 8*7 8*4 8*3 8.1 7 .3 7.3 7.1 7.4 7*9 8*7 7.6 6*5 4*8 4-82 8 .Ì 8*7 8*4 8*3 8.0 7*8 7*4 4*8 4*7 4*5 4 .7 6*9 7.4 6*3 5*1 3*6 2*3 152*9 154*7 155*6 1-83 8.5 8*4 • *l 7*9 7*4 7*5 7*2 4*5 4*4 6*1 4.2 6.4 6*7 5*7 4*7 3*5 2*9 3*4 2-83 8*0 7*9 7*6 7*4 7*1 6*9 6.4 5*9 5*8 5.5 5.5 5.6 5*7 4*7 3*7 2*6 1*8 1*5 -0 .3 3-78 4 -f8 1-79 2—7? 3 -r v 4-79 1-80 2—00 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-82 3-82 4-62 1-83 156*9 156*9P INITIAL QUARTER ♦REVISED FROM 1980* F - PRELIMINARY 11 P* EPAREO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK CNF ST* LOUIS AUGUST 2* 19*3 GROSS NATIONAL PROOUCT IN CURRENT DOLLARS COHPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE_______ TERMINAL B I L L IO N S OF OOLLARS ANNUAL fcS I N I T I A L QUARTER QUARTER 3-78 4-7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3-79 4 -7 9 1-8 0 2-80 3 -8 0 4-80 1-8 1 4-7 8 15.2 1-79 12 .4 9.8 2-79 10.8 8.6 7.5 3-7 9 11.5 10 .2 10 .5 4-7 9 10.8 9.7 9.7 10.8 8 .1 1-80 10.9 1 0 .1 10.2 II. 1 9 .9 1 1 .7 2-80 9.4 8.5 8.3 8 .4 6 .8 6.2 0.9 3-80 9.5 8 .7 8.5 8 .7 7.5 7.3 5.2 9 .7 4-8 0 10.1 9.5 9 .5 9 .8 9.1 9.3 8 .5 12 .6 15.5 1—81 11.1 10.7 10 .8 11.3 1 0 .9 11 .5 1 1 .4 15 .2 18 .0 20.5 2 -8 1 10 .7 10.3 1 0 .3 10 .7 1 0 .3 10 .6 10. 4 12 .9 14 .0 13 .3 6 .6 2- 8 1 4tT§.l _ .1^32 ftAl 2-8 2 3-52 . 4 ^ 2 1 -8 3 2*281.6 2 .3 3 5 .5 2.3 77.9 13.6 2 .4 54.8 2 .5 0 2 .9 2 .5 72.9 2.5 7 8 .8 ¿.639 .1 2 .7 3 6 .0 2.8 6 6 .6 2 .9 1 2 .5 3 -8 1 10 .9 10.5 •o *4 11.0 1 0 .6 11.0 10.9 13.0 13 .9 13 .3 9 .9 13.3 4-81 10.3 9.9 10.0 10 .2 9.8 10.1 9.8 11.4 11.7 10 .8 7.8 8 .4 3.7 1 -8 2 9.5 9 .0 9 .0 9. 1 8.7 8.7 8.4 9.5 9.4 8.3 5 .4 5 .0 1.1 -1 .4 2 -8 2 9 .3 8 .9 8.8 8.9 8.5 8.5 8.2 9.1 9 .0 8.0 5.6 5.4 2.9 2.5 6.6 3-82 8.8 8.4 8 .3 8 .4 8.0 8.0 7.6 8 .4 8.2 7.2 5.1 4 .9 2.9 2.6 4 .6 2 .7 4-8 2 8.5 8.0 7.9 8 .0 7.5 7.5 7. 1 7.8 7.6 6.6 4 .8 4 .5 2 .8 2.6 3 .9 2 .6 2 .5 1-83 8.4 8.1 7 .9 8.0 7.6 7.6 7 .2 7 .8 7.6 6.8 5.2 5.0 3.7 3.7 5.0 4 .4 5 .3 8,2 2-83 8.7 8 .3 8.2 8.3 7 .9 7.9 7.7 8.2 8.1 7 .4 6 .0 6.0 4.9 5.2 6.5 6.5 7.8 10.6 13.0 4-78 1 -7 9 2-7 $ 3^79 4-79 1-8 0 ¿-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-8 1 3-81 4-81 1 -8 2 2-82 3-8 2 4-82 1-83 3-7 Ö 3.0 0 4 .9 3 .032.2 3.0 21.4 3 .0 70.2 3 * 090 »7 3 .1 09.6 3.171.5 3 .2 7 0 .0 I N I T I A L QUARTER GROSS NATIONAL PROOUCT IN 1972 DOLLARS __ C Q * P « J N P E & A N N U A L RAT£ S OF CHANGE____________________________________________________________ 61LLIONS OF TERMINAL___________ ____________________________INITIAL.WARIER_______________________________________DOLLARS. QUARTER 3- 7 8 4-78 1-79 4-78 5.5 1-7 9 3.3 1.1 2-79 1 .9 0.1 -0 .9 2 -7 9 ANNUAL RATES 3-79 4-7 9 1-8 0 2 -8 0 3 -8 0 4-8 0 1-81 2-8 1 3-8 1 4-8 1 1-82 2—0 2 3—8 2 4-8 2 l-fll 1 1t 4 7 ? t fr 1 3-7 9 2.6 1 .7 1.9 4.8 4-7 9 2.2 1.4 1.5 2.8 0.7 1-8 0 2.2 1.5 1.6 2 .5 1*3 1f 4 8 A -& l*4B9-3 1. 9 1 0 00 1 CM 0 .5 -0 .3 -0 .6 -0 .5 -2 .3 -3 .7 -9 .0 o T 0.5 -0 .2 -0 .4 -0 .3 -1 .5 -2 .2 -4 .3 4-8 0 0.9 0.3 0.2 0.4 -0 .5 -0 .8 -1 .6 2.3 3.8 1 -8 1 1.7 1.3 1.3 1.6 l.l l.l 0 .9 4 .5 6 .4 9.0 2 -8 1 1 .6 1 .2 1 .2 1 .5 1 .0 1. 0 0 .9 3.5 4 .4 4.7 3-81 1.7 1.4 1.4 1 .7 1.3 1.4 1.3 3 .5 4.2 4.3 2» I 3.6 4 —81 1.2 0 .9 0.8 1.0 0.6 0 .6 0 .4 2.1 2.3 2 .0 -0 .3 -0 .7 -4 .9 1 -8 2 0.7 0.4 0.3 0 .4 -0 .0 -0 .1 -0 .4 1.0 1.0 0 .4 -1 .6 -2 .3 -5 .2 -5 .5 2-82 0.7 0 .4 0.3 0 .5 0.1 0.0 -0 .2 1.0 1.0 0 .5 -l.l —1 *5 -3 .2 -2 .3 0.9 3-8 2 0.6 0 .3 0 .3 0 .3 -0 .0 -0 .1 -0 .3 0 .7 0 .7 0.3 -l.l -1 .4 -2 .6 -1 .9 -0 .0 -1 .0 4-8 2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0 .2 -0 .1 -0 .2 -0 .4 0 .5 0 .5 0.1 -l.l -1 .4 -2 .4 -1 .7 -0 .5 -1 .2 -1 .3 1-83 0 .6 0 .3 0 .3 0 .4 0 .1 0.0 -0 .1 0 .7 0.7 0 .4 -0 .7 -0 .8 -1 .6 -0 .9 0.3 0 .1 0 .6 2.6 2-8 3 l.l 0 .8 0.8 0 .9 0.7 0.6 0 .6 1.4 1.5 1.2 0 .4 0.4 -0 .1 0 .7 2.0 2*3 3 .4 5*9 9.2 4-78 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3-79 4 -7 9 1- 8 0 2-80 3-8 0 < r 1-8 1 2-8 1 3-8 1 4—81 1- 8 2 2-82 3-82 4-8 2 1 -8 3 3—78 .4. 1* 461 .4 0.8 1*4 64 .2 1 .4 77.9 1.5 1 0 .1 0 .6 1. 5 1 2 - 5 1.5 2 5 .8 1 . 5 0 6 . 9 ____ 1.4 85.8 1.4 8 9 .3 1 .4 8 5 -7 1.4 A0 .7 1 .49 0-1 1.5 23.4 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S I . AUGUST 19> 1983 12 LOUIS _ GROSS N AT I ON AL PRODUCT RAT 10 S C A L E Q U A R T E R L Y T O T A L S AT ANNUAL R A T E S RATIO SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S SEA SO N A L LY ADJUSTED T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S .. . —j 3.8 J — 3.8 T " ........... T V .7 3.7 > & >-k k --H > > - S *.6 3.6 > $ .5 3.5 £ § 1 .4 3.4 * $ ^ % .3 3.3 +3. 9Z , > / . 2 3.2 --- w . /z /Z.2700 . 1 3. 1 .0 3.0 .9 2 +/$. e z / .8 2 C U R R E N T DOLLAF *S '""i io. 9 z / y .7 2 ...... 2 2 HO. t Z y /j 2 / .6 .5 .4 / .3 2 2.2 / / 2. I / . 2 / . H2. O Z / .0 2.0 / I .9 s ' .9 I 1 . 8 I .7 . 8 I .7 + /J. OZy^ r r”v*t? , !tA 1 . 6 1 .6 .... +t 9Z +4. 5Z + /.5Z 1 .5 1. 5 +■5. OZ^, y. I .4 1. 1 3 1972 -5.2Xf '■ ■ ■ ua V - 0 5x 1. 4 I .3 DOLLAR! 1 .2 1. 2 * * t k 1975 19 7 6 1977 1978 ? * $ > £ £ t S* ft 1979 £ S ■s § § \ t t 1980 SOURCE: PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PER IO D S LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt 2ND OUARTER 1981 U.S. S S£ $ £ Js S t 1 t t 19 82 * £ 1 .0 1983 DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE IN D IC AT ED . _ PREPARED BY FEDERAL R ESERV E BANK OF ST. 13 I . 1 L O U IS GENERAL PRICE RATIO I NDEX* SCALE RATIO 1972-100 19 7 5 SCALE 1972-100 1976 1977 1978 1979 •AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS 1980 1981 1982 1983 SOURCEt U .S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANCE FOR PERIOOS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PlOTTEOt 2ND OWARTE* PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LO U IS I M P L I C I T PR ICC DEFLATOR FOR GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT _________ _____________ ___________________________________________ CQHPOUNOEC ANNUAL RATES OP CHANGE__________________________________________________________________ QUARTER __________________________________ _______________________________ I N I T J A J ^ Q UARTER_________________________________________________________________ 1972 « 1QQ 3- 7 8 4-7 8 1-79 2 -7 9 3-79 4-7 9 1 -8 0 2-80 4 -7 8 9.1 1-7 9 8.8 8.6 2 -7 9 8.7 8.5 8.5 3 -7 9 8.6 8.4 8 .4 8 .3 4 -7 9 8.4 8 .2 8 .0 7 .8 7.3 1-80 8.6 8 .4 8 .4 8.4 8 .4 9.6 2 -8 0 8.9 8 .9 8 .9 9 .0 9 .3 1 0 .3 1 0 .9 3 -8 0 8.9 8 .9 8.9 9 .0 9 .2 9.8 9 .9 8 .8 3-80 4-80 1-8 1 2 -8 1 3-8 1 4-81 1-8 2 2-82 3-82 1-83 155.3Ö 15 8. 60 16 1.8 5 165.12 168.05 17 1. 94 17 6.46 18 0. 24 9.2 9.2 9.2 9 .4 9.6 1 0 .2 10.4 10 .1 1 1 .3 1-81 9.3 9 .3 9.4 9 .5 9.7 1 0 .2 10.4 10 .2 1 0 .9 10 .5 I 4 -8 0 I B S . 13 18 9.8 3 9 .0 9.0 9. 1 9 .2 9.5 9.5 9 .1 9 .2 8.2 9.0 9.0 9.0 9.1 9 .2 9 .5 9 .5 9 .2 9.3 8.6 7 .6 9.4 4 -8 1 9 .0 9.0 9 .0 9.1 9 .2 9.4 9.4 9 .1 9.2 8.7 8.1 9 .2 9.0 1-82 8.7 8.6 8.6 8.7 8.7 8.8 8 .8 8.4 8.4 7.8 7.1 7.5 6.6 8.5 8.4 8 .4 8 .4 8 .4 8.5 8 .4 8 .1 8 .0 7.4 6.8 7.1 6.3 5 .0 5.6 8.2 8.1 8.1 8.0 8.0 8.1 7 .9 7.6 7.4 6.9 6.3 6.4 5.6 4.5 4.6 3 .7 4 .4 3.8 3.8 1 CO ® » 9.0 3-8 1 3-8 2 4 -8 2 19?-S/S 5.9 19 6 .9 4 2 0 1. 22 4.3 2 2 0 6 .1 5 20 8 .0 3 4-8 2 7.9 7.8 7.8 7.7 7 .7 7.7 7 .5 7 .2 7 .0 6.5 5 .9 6 .0 5 .3 4 .4 1 -8 3 7.8 7 .7 7.6 7 .6 7 .5 7.5 7 .4 7 .1 6 .9 6 .4 5 .9 5.9 5 .3 4 .6 4 .7 4.3 4 .7 5.5 2 -8 3 7 .5 7.4 7.4 7.3 7 .2 7 .2 7.1 6.8 6.6 6.1 5 .6 5.6 5.0 4 .4 4 .4 4 .1 4.3 4.5 3.5 3 -7 8 4-7 8 1 -7 9 2-7 9 3-79 4-7 9 1- 8 0 2-8 0 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 >-8 1 4-81 1-8 2 2-82 3 -8 2 4-8 2 1-83 210.00 ?\ 2 1 4 .6 6 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS AUGUST 19* 1963 14 PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN CURRENT DOLLARS __________COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE________________ TERMINAL QUARTER B I L L I O N S OF DOLLARS. ANNUAL RATES IN ITIA L QUART« 3-78 4-7 0 13 .4 1 -7 9 11 .9 4-78 1—79 2-79 3-79 4-7 9 1 -8 0 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-8 1 3-81 4-8 1 1-8 2 2-92 3-6 2 4 -8 2 1-83 1*411*3 10.3 1* 44 6 .3 2-7 9 10 .7 9.4 8.5 3-7 9 11.8 1 1 .2 11.7 1 4 .9 4 -7 9 12.1 1 1 .8 1 2 .3 14.3 13.7 13 .3 12 .4 _ 1 .4 7 6 .0 . ... *i 1.578.0 1-8 0 12.0 11.7 12.0 2-8 0 10.4 9.9 9.8 10.2 8 .6 6 .2 1 .5 3-80 11.0 10 .6 10 .7 1 1 .1 10.1 9.0 7 .9 1* 62 0 .5 1 1 .2 _ lt62fc*4_______ 14 .8 4 -8 0 11.4 11 .1 11 .2 11.7 11 .0 10.4 10 .1 1 4 .7 14 .6 1-81 11.7 1 1 .5 11 .6 12 .1 11 .6 11 .2 1 1 .2 14.7 14.7 1 4 .7 1* 741 .9 2 -8 1 11.3 11.1 1 1 .2 1 1 .5 11.0 1 0 .6 1 0 .5 12.9 1 2 .2 11.1 7.5 3 -8 1 11.3 11.1 1 1 .2 1 1 .5 11 .1 10.7 1 0 .6 1 2 .6 12.0 11 .2 9.5 11 .4 4-81 10 .7 10 .5 10 .5 10.7 1 0 .3 9.8 9.7 11 .1 10.4 9.3 7 .6 7 .6 1- 8 2 10.5 1 0 .3 10 .3 10.4 10 .0 9.6 9 .4 10.6 9.9 8.9 7 .5 7 .6 5 .7 7.5 2-82 10.3 10 .0 10 .0 1 0 .2 9.7 9.3 9.1 10. 1 9.5 8 .7 7.5 7.5 6.2 7.3 7*2 3-82 10.1 9.9 9.8 9.9 9.5 9.2 9.0 9.8 9.2 8.5 7.5 7.5 6.5 T.4 7*i 7,5 4-8 2 10 .0 9 .7 9.7 9.8 9 .4 9 .1 8 .9 9 .6 9.1 8.4 7 .5 7.5 6.8 7.5 7.5 7.7 7*8 _______ 1* 88 6 .1 3.9 1 »904*1_______ 1.9 30* 5_______ 1*9 72 .8 2 .04 6.9 1-83 9 .7 9.5 9.4 9 .5 9.1 8.8 8.6 9.2 8 .7 8.0 7 .2 7.2 6.5 7.0 6.9 6*9 6*5 5*2 2-83 10.0 9.8 9.8 9.8 9.5 9.2 9. 1 9 .7 9.3 8.8 8.1 8.2 7.7 8 . 4 ___ 8 . 6 8 .9 9.4 1 0 .2 1^*4_____ ¿ .1 4 0 * 4 _______ 3 - T 8 ' ~4—T8 1-Î9 2-79 3 -7 9 4-7 9 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3-80 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 2-82 3—82 4-6 2 1-83 4-81 1- 8 2 2*0 73 *0 . . I N I T I A L QUARTER PERSONAL CONSUMPTION EXPENDITURES IN 1972 DOLLARS ___________COMPQUNOÇQ ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE__________________________________________________________________ B I L L I O N S OF TERMINAL________________ __ _______________________________________________ I N I T I A L QUARTER_________________________________________________________________ ÜÜLLARS____ QUARTER ANNUAL KATES 1-79 3- 7 8 4-78 2-79 3-79 4-79 3—82 4 - 8 2 1-A 3 1 -8 0 2 -8 0 3-80 4 -8 0 1-8 1 2-81 3—81 4 - 8 1 1—82_ 2 - 8 2 4-7 8 4.7 1-79 2. 8 0.9 2-79 1. 6 0.1 -0 .7 3-79 2.5 1.7 2.1 5. 1 4-7 9 2.6 2.1 2.5 4.2 1- 8 0 2. 2 1.7 1.9 2.7 1 .6 -0 * 1 2-8 0 0.7 0 .0 -0 .1 0.0 -1 .6 -4 .0 -7 .7 919.>2 921..>2 91 9. 930. .<» 3.3 938«.6. . 93Ä. 919..6 3-8 0 l.l 0.6 0 .6 0.9 -0 .2 -1 .3 -1 .9 4.3 4-8 0 1. 5 1 .1 1.2 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.2 4.5 4*6 1 -8 1 2.0 1.6 1 .7 2.1 1 .6 1.3 1.6 5 .0 5 .3 5.9 2 -8 1 1 .8 1.5 1 .6 1.9 1.5 1. 1 1 .4 3 .8 3.6 3 .2 3 -8 1 2.0 1.7 1.8 2.1 1.7 1.5 1.7 3*7 3*6 3.3 2*0 3.5 4 -81 1.6 1.3 1 .3 1.6 1. 2 0.9 l.l 2.6 2 .3 1.7 0*3 0*2 -3*0 1 -8 2 1.6 1.4 1.4 1 .6 1.3 1 .1 1.2 2 .6 2.3 1.8 0.8 0*9 -0*3 2.4 CO » <N 1.7 1.5 1.6 1.8 1.5 1.3 1.4 2.6 2.4 2.0 1*3 1.5 0.8 2.8 3.1 929. __________ 940..0 953« 0.5 .6 .7 9S4. 96 2.*9 . 955« .7 96L« 968. .ft 3-8 2 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.7 1 .4 1.2 1.4 2 .4 2.2 1. 9 1.2 1 .4 0 .8 2.1 2.0 0 .9 4-8 2 1.8 1 .6 1.7 1 .8 1.6 1 .4 1.6 2 .6 2.4 2. 1 1.5 1*7 1*4 2*5 2.5 2 .2 3.6 _ 1-83 1 .8 1.7 1 .7 1.9 1 .7 1.5 1.7 2 .6 2.4 2 .2 1*7 1*9 1*6 2*6 2.6 2.5 3.3 2.9 9Û6. »7 2-8 3 2.3 2.1 2 .2 2 .4 2.2 2 .1 2.3 3 .2 3.1 2 .9 2.6 2*9 2*8 3*7 4*0 4*2 5 .4 6*3 u9 3-7Ó 4 -7 8 1-Y 9 2-7 9 3-79 4-7 9 1 -8 0 2-8 0 3-8 0 4 -8 0 1-81 2 -8 1 3-81 4-81 1-8 2 2-8 2 3-82 4-82 . 971.^ 979. 1-83 I N I T I A L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T • LO U IS AUGUST 19* 1983 15 .... GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN CURRENT DOLLARS ____________ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE _ B I L L IO N S OF ^ R H I N A L .____________________________________________________________ _ ________________ I N I T I A L q u a r T ér 4-7 8 1-79 2-7 9 3-79 4-79 1 -8 0 2-80 3- 8 0 4-8 0 ______________________________________________________ D O L L A R S ANNUAL RATES 1-81 2-8 1 3- 8 1 4-8 1 1-8 2 15.5 1-79 10.7 6.0 2 -7 9 11.5 9 .6 1 3 .3 3 -7 9 9.5 7.5 8.3 4-7 9 4 .5 1.9 0 .5 - 5 . 3 -1 3 .3 1 -8 0 4 .6 2.5 1.7 -2 .0 2 -8 0 -0 .0 -2 .4 -4 .0 -7 .9 -1 1 .4 -1 0 .5 -23 .8 3 -8 0 -1 .9 -4 .2 -5 .8 -9 .2 -12 .1 -1 1 .8 -1 9 .1 -14 .2 1.9 0 .3 -0 .5 -2 .6 -3 .8 -1 .2 -3 .2 9.0 1- 8 1 5*9 4 .9 4.8 3.6 3.6 7.4 7.9 21.2 4 4 .1 4 9 .8 2-81 6.7 5.9 5.9 5 .0 5.2 8.7 9.4 1 9 .7 33.8 31.5 15.4 3-81 7.9 7.2 7.4 6 .7 7. 1 1 0 .4 11 .3 2 0 .1 3 0 .6 28 .1 18 .5 4-81 6.0 5.2 5 .1 4 .3 4.4 6.9 7.1 1 3 .4 19.9 1 5 .7 6.1 1-82 2.0 1.0 0 .6 -0 .5 -0 .8 0.6 0.1 4.1 7 .5 2.2 -7 .2 -13 .6 2-82 2.5 1 .6 1 .3 0.3 0 .1 1.5 1 .1 4 .7 7.8 3.3 -4 . 1 -e .4 - 1 6 .6 -1 7 .5 9 .4 3-82 1.9 1.0 0 .7 -0 .2 -0 .5 0 .7 0 .3 3 .4 5 .9 1.9 -4 .5 -8 .0 -1 4 .0 1. 1 4 -8 2 -1 .0 -2 .0 -2 .5 -3 .6 -4 .1 -3 .3 -4 .0 -1 .7 -0 .2 -4 .3 -1 0 .2 -13 .9 1-83 0.5 -0 .3 -0 .7 -1 .5 -1 .9 -0 .9 -1 .4 0 .9 2.5 -0 .8 -5 .8 -8 .5 2-83 2 .9 2 .2 2 .0 1 .3 1.2 2.3 2 .1 4 .6 6.5 3 .8 -0 .4 -2 .2 4 -? *~ 1 -7 9 2-7 9 3 -7 9 4-7 9 1 -8 0 2-80 3-80 4-80 1-8 1 2- 8 1 3-78 2-8 2 3 -8 2 4-8 2 1-83 4 0 9 .1 41 5 .1 4 2 8 .3 3.4 431.9 -4 .5 416.8 5 .1 4 2 2 .0 3 9 4. 3 379.5 w 00 V« 1 CO o 4 -7 8 & 3-7 8 Q U A R TER 411.7 455.5 4 7 2. 1 21.6 49 5.Ö 1 .7 - 1 4 . 9 47 6 .2 -2 7 .2 -3 7 .8 -1 4 .2 . 422*? 432.5 -6 .5 425.3 - 1 9 . 6 - 2 0 . 7 - 14 *1 - 2 3 . 9 - 3 8 . 0 377.4 -1 2 .7 -12*3 -4 .4 -5 .2 -3 .4 5*4 4*5 8.4 43*3 56 .3 3-81 4-81 1-8 2 2-82 3 -8 2 4-82 1-83 -8 .7 -9 .7 4 0 4 .1 31.4 4 5 1. 8 I N I T I A L QUARTER GROSS PRIVATE DOMESTIC INVESTMENT IN 1972 DOLLARS ___________COMPOUNDED ANNUAJL RATES QF CHANGE___________ B I L L IO N S OF TERMINAL QUARTER I N I T I A L QUARTER DOLLARS ANNUAL RATtS 3-78 4 -7 8 7.2 4-78 1- 7 9 2-7 9 3-7 9 4-7 9 1 -8 0 2-80 3 -8 0 4-8 0 1-81 2-81 3-6 1 4-81 1-82 2-8 2 3 -6 2 4 -6 2 1- f t l . 1-79 3 .0 -1 .2 2 -7 9 1.9 -0 .7 -0 .3 3-7 9 -0 .3 -2 .7 -3 .5 4-7 9 -4 . 3 -7 .0 -8 .8 1-80 -3 .9 -6 .0 -7 .1 -9 .3 -1 0 .6 .2 4 2 -Z _ . 2 4 1 .5 2 4 1 .3 -6 .6 -1 2 .8 -1 8 .6 225.3_ -1 .8 2 -8 0 -8 .8 -1 1 .3 -1 3 .2 -1 6 .1 -1 9 .1 -1 9 .3 -3 3 .7 3 -8 0 -8 .9 —il.O -1 2 .6 -1 4 .8 -16 .8 -1 6 .2 -2 2 .5 -9 .5 4 -8 0 -5 .4 -6 .9 -7 .7 -8 .8 -9 .3 -6 .8 -8 .4 7.7 28 .1 1-81 -2 .6 -3 .7 -4 .0 —4*5 -4 .1 -0 .9 -0 .7 1 3 .6 2 7 .3 26.5 2-81 -1 .3 -2 .1 -2 .2 -2 .5 -1 .9 1.2 1.9 1 3 .4 22.2 1 9 .4 -0 .9 ______ 202*4 1 9 7. 4 2 1 0 .0 222.7 12.8 229.5 3-81 -0 .2 -0 .9 -0 .9 -0 .2 2.8 3*5 1 3 .2 19.7 17 .0 12*6 12.4 4-8 1 -2 .2 -2 .9 -3 .1 -3 .3 -3 .0 -0 .8 -0 .7 6.3 9 .7 5.6 -0 .6 -6 .7 1-8 2 -4 .9 -5 .8 -6 .1 —6 . 6 -6 .7 -5 .2 -5 .6 -0 .8 0.8 2-82 -4 .4 -5 .1 -5 .4 -5 .8 -5 .8 -4 .4 -4 .7 -0 .2 3-8 2 -4 .4 -5 .2 -5 .5 -5 .8 -5 .8 -4 .5 -4 .8 -0 .9 4-8 2 —6 . 6 -7 .4 -7 .8 -8 .3 -8 .4 -7 .5 -8 .0 -4 .9 -4 .4 - 7 . 8 - 1 1 . 9 -15*5 -20*1 - 1 9 . 5 1-8 3 -4 .9 -5 .6 -5 .8 -6 .2 -6 .1 -5 .1 -5 .4 -2 .3 -1 .5 -4* 4 2 -8 3 -2 .5 -3 .1 -3 .2 -3 .3 -3 .1 -1 .9 -1 .9 1.3 2 .4 0 .1 -2 .5 -4 * 2 >-?é 4- 7 é ~ 1-79 ¿ -79 3-7 9 4-7 9 1-80 2-8 0 3—80 4-8 0 1-61 2- 8 1 . 2 2 4 .3 2\A^3 221.7 -2 2 * 5 - 3 . 9 - 1 0 . 3 -16 *9 -2 8 * 6 - 3 4 . 2 19 9 . 7 1.2 -2*7 -7*7 -1 2 * 2 - 1 9 . 2 - 1 7 . 5 20 1 .4 0.3 -3 .2 -7 .4 -11 .0 -16 .0 -1 3 .8 3 .4 -1 .3 -5*8 19 8. 4___ ___ 178.4 -14*0 -2 I t i -34 *6 -1 1 .6 -4 .9 -7*5 -8* 3 -6 .4 -3*4 4*3 4*6 8*3 39*4 50.9 3-8 1 4-81 1-62 2-62 3-82 4-6 2 1-63 - 7 * 6 -10 *2 2 8* 7 _ _ _ .. 19 Q.0 210.6 I N I T I A L QUARTER PRCPARCO BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS AUGUST 1 9 , 1983 16 GOVERNMB<T PURCHASES Of GOODS AND SERVICES IN CURRENT DOLLARS _______ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________________________________________________________________________ B IL LI O N S OF I N I T I A L QUARTER_________________________________________________________________ DOLLARS TERMINAI__________________ ____________________________________ ‘ <5u à R T é R ANNUAL RATtS 1- 7 9 2-79 3 -7 8 4-7 8 3-79 2-8 0 1-80 4-7 9 3-80 4-80 1-81 2- 8 1 3-81 4-81 1-82 2-8 2 3 - 8 2 4- 8 2 _ 1 -8 3 4-78 11.2 1-79 8.2 5 .2 2-7 9 7.7 6.0 6.8 3-79 8.9 8.2 9 .7 12.6 4-7 9 10 .5 10.3 12.1 14.8 16 .9 1-80 11 .6 11.6 13 .3 15.5 17 .0 17.1 45 1 .1 . 456.9 464.5 478-5 497-6 5 17.A 2-80 12. 0 12 .1 13.5 15.3 16.2 15.8 14 . 6 3-80 10 .8 10.7 11 .7 12.7 1 2 .7 11.3 8.5 2.7 4-8 0 11. 3 11 .3 12.2 1 3 .1 13 .2 1 2 .3 1 0 .8 9.0 535.5 53 9.1 1 5 .6 5 5 9 .0 1-8 1 11 .5 11.5 12 .3 1 3 .1 13 .2 12.5 11.3 1 0 .3 14.3 13 .0 2- 8 1 10 .9 10.8 11.5 1 2 .1 1 2 .0 11.2 10 .1 9 .0 11 .1 9.0 5.1 3-81 11.0 10.9 11 .5 1 2 .1 12.0 1 1 .3 10.4 9.6 11 .4 10 .0 8.5 12 .0 4-8 1 11.3 11 .4 11 .9 12.4 12 .4 1 1 .9 11.2 10.6 12.2 11 .4 10.9 13 .9 15 .9 5 7 6. 3 593*5 600.3 622.8 1-8 2 10.8 10 .8 11 .3 11.7 11 .6 11.0 1 0 .3 9 .7 10.9 10.0 9.3 10 . 7 10.1 4.6 2-82 10.2 10 .1 10 .5 1 0 .8 10.6 1 0 .0 9.2 8 .6 9.5 8.5 7.6 8 .2 7.0 2.8 1.1 3-82 10.5 1 0 .5 10.9 11.2 11.1 10.6 9 .9 9 .4 1 0 .3 9 .5 9.0 9.8 9.2 7.1 8.4 16.2 4-8 2 10.8 10 .8 11 .2 1 1 .5 11 .4 1 1 .0 1 0 .4 10.0 10.8 10 .3 9 .9 1 0 .7 10.4 9.1 10.7 15.8 1 5 .5 1 -8 3 10.1 10.0 10 .3 10 .6 10 .4 10.0 9 .4 8.9 9.6 8.9 8.4 8 .9 8 .4 7.0 7 .6 9.8 6 .7 -1 .3 2-8 3 9.7 9 .6 9.9 10 .1 9 .9 9 .4 8 .9 8.4 8.9 8.3 7.8 8.1 7.6 6.3 6.6 8 .0 5.4 0 .7 2.8 3-78 4-79 1- 7 9 2-7 ^ 3-79 4-79 1-Ó0 2-6 0 3-dó 4—80 1-81 2-8 1 3-81 4-61 1-8 2 2-8 2 3-82 4-8 2 1 -8 3 629.8 63 1.6 6 5 5 .7 ____ 6 7 7 .4 682.1 I N I T I A L QUARTER GOVERNMENT PURCHASES IDF GOODS AND SERVICES IN 1972 DOLLARS COMPOUNDED <ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER B I L L I O N S OF nm i AR5w ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L <QUARTER 3 -7 8 4-7 8 1 .3 4-78 1 -7 9 2-7 9 3-79 4-7 9 1-80 2-80 3-8 0 4-80 1-81 2-8 1 3- 8 1 4-81 2-8 2 1- 8 2 3-82 4-8 2 1 77 7 -7 1-79 -0 .3 -1 .9 2-7 9 0 .0 -0 .6 0.6 2 7 6 .4 ? 7* -A 0 .7 0.5 1.7 2 .9 1.3 1.3 2.3 3.2 3.5 1-80 1.7 1.8 2.7 3.5 3 .8 4 .0 4 .0 . 2 7 a. B 2 8 1 -2 2.2 3.0 3.6 3.8 1 .3 1 .3 1.8 2.1 1 .9 1 .3 0 .0 -3 .8 4-8 0 0.9 0.9 1.3 1.4 1.1 0.5 -0 .7 -3 .0 -2 .1 1 -8 1 1 .3 1 .3 1.7 1.8 1.6 1 .2 0.6 -0 .6 1.1 4.5 2-81 1.0 0 .9 1.2 1 .3 1 .1 0 .7 0 .0 -0 .9 0.0 1.1 -2 .1 3— 81 1*2 1.2 1.5 1*6 1.4 1.1 0 .7 0.0 1.0 2 .0 0.8 4-81 1.4 1.4 1.7 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.1 0 .6 1.6 2.5 1.93 .9 4 . 0 ______________________________________________________________ 2 8 9 .6 X-82 1.3 1.3 1.5 1 .6 1.5 1.3 0.9 0.5 1 .3 1 .9 1 .3 2 . ? 1 .8 « 2.0 3-8 0 4 .0 2 8 6 . a _____ 284.0 282.5 285.6 .. 28&-B - 0 , 3 ______________________________________________________¿ 6 9 . 4 - 4 . 9 _____________________________________________ 2 8 5 -8 2-82 0.9 0.8 1 .0 1 .1 0 .9 0.7 0 .3 -0 .2 0 .4 0.8 0 .1 0 . 6 -0 .5 -2 .6 1.4 1.4 1.6 1 .7 1.6 1.4 1.1 0.8 1.4 1 .9 1.5 2 . 3 1.9 1.2 1.9 4-8 2 1.9 1.9 2.2 2.3 2.2 2.1 2.0 1.8 2.4 3.0 2.83 .6 3.6 3 .5 4.8 1-83 1.3 1.3 1.5 1.5 1.4 1.3 1 .0 0 .8 1.2 1.6 1.31.8 1.4 0.9 1.2 3 .3 2-8 3 1. 1 1.1 1.3 1.3 1 .2 1.1 0 .8 0 .6 1.0 1.3 1 .0 1 . 4 1.0 0.5 0 .7 2.1 3-78 4-7 8 1-79 2-79 3-7 9 4-7 9 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-8 0 1-81 I N I T I A L QUARTER 284.1 3.9 3-82 ___ 2 8 4 -0 O 00 tv 3-79 4 -7 9 2-8 1 9 . 3 _____________________________________ ¿ 9 2 . 2 10 .0 3-81 1 0 . 7 _____________________________ 299.71 0 . 5 ________ - 8 . 8 ________________ ¿ 9 2 . 9 -0 .1 4-8 1 -5 .1 1-8 2 - 1 . 4 ______________29J^2_ 2-8 2 3-82 4-6 2 1-83 ~ PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LO UIS AUGUST 1 9 , 1983 17 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCOME IN CURRENT DOLLARS _______COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_________ TERMINAL QUARTER B I L L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER 3 -7 8 4—7 8 1-79 2 -7 9 3-79 4 -7 9 1-80 2-8 0 3- 8 0 4-00 4-7 8 13 .0 1-79 12 .6 12 .1 2-7 9 11 .5 1 0 .8 9.5 3-7 9 11 .9 11 .5 11.2 13.0 4 -7 9 11.5 1 1 .2 10 . 8 11.5 10.1 1-80 11 .9 11.7 11 .6 12.3 12.0 13.9 2-8 0 10 .8 10.4 10 .1 10.2 9.3 8.9 4.1 3-8 0 11 .1 10 .8 10.6 10.8 10 .3 10 .3 8.6 13 .2 4-8 0 11.4 11.2 11 .1 11 .3 1 1 .0 1 1 .3 1 0 .4 1 3 .6 14.1 1 -8 1 11 . 6 11 .4 11.3 11 .6 11 .4 11.6 11. 1 13 .5 13 .6 13.1 2-8 1 11.3 11.2 11 .1 11.3 11 .0 11.2 10 .6 12 .3 12.0 11 .0 1-81 2-81 3- 8 1 4-81 1-8 2 2-0 2 3 -8 2 4-0 2 1-83 1.5 4 2 .7 1 *5 0 7. 5 1*624.0 1.674.3 1.7 14.9 1.7 71.7 1.7 89.8 1.846.0 1.9 08.0 1.967.6 9.0 2*010*4 3-81 11 .8 1 1 .7 1 1 .7 11.9 11.8 12 .0 11 . 7 13 .3 13 .3 13.1 13.0 17.3 4-8 1 1 1 .3 11 .2 11.1 11 .3 11.1 11 .2 10.8 1 2 .0 11.7 11.1 10.5 1 1 .3 1-82 10 .6 10 . 4 10.3 10.3 10.1 10.1 9.6 10.4 9.9 9.1 0.1 7.9 3.5 1 .4 2-8 2 10.3 10.1 9 .9 10 .0 9.7 9.6 9.2 9.8 9 .4 0.6 7.7 7.4 4.3 3.7 6.0 3-8 2 1 0 .0 9.8 9.6 9.7 9 .4 9.3 8.9 9 .4 9.0 8.2 7 .4 7 .1 4.0 4.5 6.1 6.2 4-8 2 9.8 9.6 9.5 9.5 9 .2 9.1 8.7 9.2 8.7 8.1 7.4 7.1 5.2 5.1 6.3 6 .5 6 .8 1-83 9.6 9 .4 9.2 9 .2 8.9 8 .« 8.4 8.8 8 .4 7.7 7.1 6.8 5*2 5. 1 6.0 6*0 6.0 5.1 2-8 3 9.5 9.3 9.1 9.1 8 .9 8.8 8.4 8 .8 0 .4 7.8 7 .2 7 .0 5.6 5.7 6 .5 6.7 6 .8 6.9 8*6 3-7 Ô ' 4-7 8 1-7 ^ 2-7 9 3 -7 9 4-7 9 1-80 2-80 3-80 4-00 1-81 2- 8 1 3—81 4-81 1-8 2 2-8 2 3-82 4-6 2 1 -6 3 2.0 92.0 5.6 2* 120 .5 2* 12 7 .9 2.1 5 9 .0 2 * 191*5 2*227*8 2 .2 55.9 2.3 0 3 * 0 I N I T I A L QUARTER DISPOSABLE PERSONAL INCONE IN 1972 DOLLARS _____ COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE_______ BI LL IO N S OF TERMINAL ÛUARtÉR I N I T I A L QUARTER 4-7 8 1 -7 9 2 -7 9 3—T9 4-7 9 1 -8 0 2-80 3-0 0 4.3 1-7 9 3.4 2.5 2-7 9 2 .4 1.4 0.2 3 -7 9 2.6 2.0 1.7 3.2 4-7 9 2.1 1 .5 1 .2 1.7 0.1 1-8 0 2.1 1 .7 1.5 1 .9 1. 2 2-8 0 1.0 0.5 0.1 0 .0 -1 .0 -1 .6 -5 .3 3-8 0 1.2 0.8 0 .5 0.6 -0 .1 -0 .1 -1 .3 2.9 1 .2 1.0 1.2 0.8 0.9 0 .5 3 .5 4.1 4-0 0 1-01 2-0 1 3—01 4 -0 1 1-8 2 2-82 3 -8 2 4-62 1- 8 3 1,0 04-8 1,011 -1 1,0 11-7 1,0 19-8 1*020.1 1 . 02 «»-a 2.3 1.0 12.0 1*019.2 © 1 CO CD * 1 3-78 DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 1.6 1 -0 1 1.8 1.6 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.5 3.0 4.3 4 .4 2 -0 1 1.0 1 .6 1.5 1 .7 1.4 1.7 1.5 3.3 3.5 3 .1 1.9 3-81 2 .4 2 .2 2.2 2 .4 2.3 2.7 2.7 4 .4 4.8 5.0 5.3 0.9 4-8 1 2.1 I .9 1.9 2.0 1.9 2.1 2.1 3.4 3 .5 3.4 3 .0 3.6 -1 .4 1-82 1 .7 1 .5 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 2 .4 2.3 2.0 1 .4 1.2 -2 .4 -3 .4 2-82 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.4 1.6 1.5 2.4 2.3 2 .0 1 .5 1.4 -1 .0 -0 .8 1.9 3-8 2 1.6 1 .4 1.3 1.4 1.3 1.4 1.3 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.0 -0 .8 -0 .6 0 .0 -0 .3 4-8 2 1 .7 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.5 1.4 2.1 2.0 1. 0 1.4 1.3 -0 .1 0.2 1.4 1*1 2*6 1-8 3 1 .7 1.6 1.5 1 .6 1.5 1.6 1.5 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.6 1.5 0.4 0 .7 1 .8 1.7 2 .0 2.9 2 -8 3 1.8 1 .7 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.7 1.7 2.3 2.2 2.0 1 .0 1.7 0.8 1 .1 2.1 2* i 2*9 3.1 3*3 3-78 4-7 8 1-79 2 -7 9 3-79 4-79 1- 0 0 2-00 3-0 0 4-00 1-01 2-81 3-8 1 4-61 1-8 2 2 -0 2 3 -0 2 4-0 2 1 -0 3 1 .0 29.6 in it ia l 1.0 40.7 1* 045.6 1.0 60.1 1 *0 64 .3 1.0 55.1 1.0 60.2 1.0 5 9 .3 1* 066.1 1.073.8 1 ,0 82 * 5. QUARTER PREPARED BY FEOtRAL RESERVE BANK Of S T . LOUIS AUGUST 1 9 , 1983 18 CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES* COMPOUNDED ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE TERMINAL QUARTER B I L L IO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES I N I T I A L QUARTER 3-78 4-7 8 1-79 2-79 3 -7 9 4-7 8 29*5 1-79 15.6 3.3 2-7 9 13.2 5.8 8 .4 3—79 13.1 8.2 10.7 4-7 9 8.0 3 .2 3.2 0.6 -1 0 .4 1 -8 0 7 .1 3.1 3.1 1.4 2-80 -4 .1 -8 .7 3-8 0 -1 .0 4-—80 4-7 9 1 -8 0 2-80 3—80 4-80 1-81 2-8 1 3-81 4-8 1 1- 8 2 2-82 3-82 4-8 2 1-83 1 5 9 .9 16 1 .2 16 4. 5 13.0 ______ -11 .0 -1 5 .3 -2 3 .0 -2 8 .6 -50 .5 -4 .7 -6 .0 - 8 .7 -1 3 .4 -1 4 .4 -2 1 .9 23.3 -1 .0 -4 .2 -5 .2 -7 .4 -11 .0 -1 1 .1 1- 8 1 0 .6 -2 .2 -2 .8 -4 .3 2-81 -2.8 -5 .6 -6 .5 -8 .2 3-81 -1 .3 -3 .7 -4 .4 -5 .7 -7 .9 4-81 -1 .7 -3 .9 —4 . 6 -5 .8 -7 .7 1 -8 2 -7 .8 -10 .2 -6 .3 -8 .4 -9 .3 -1 0 .6 -12 .5 -12 .7 -1 4 .3 -1 0 .1 -11 .8 -1 1 .9 1 <M 2.9 1 6 6. 2 13 9. 4 14 6.9 -15 .3 10.7 -0 .5 —6 . 3 -8 .4 12. 4 7.3 -1 0 .9 -1 1 .0 -1 3 .5 -0 .6 -7 .5 -1 0 .7 -31 .2 -7 .5 -9 .1 2.6 -2 .0 -2 .4 -10 .5 -7 .3 -8 .7 1.1 -2 .8 -1 1 .2 -1 2 .8 -1 5 .0 16? *6 1 6 5 .0 -4 .0 -7 .0 ..... -1 5 .5 -1 7 .6 -1 1 .4 -1 6 .1 -8 .2 14 6.7 15.9 -3 .4 ______ ________ 13 8. 6 16.5 -9 .1 4 .5 -1 8 .9 -25 .8 -2 3 .9 1 4 1. 7 —6 . 2 -3 8 .5 -5 9 .7 -1 2 .0 -1 3 .8 -1 8 .8 -1 5 .3 -2 3 .8 -3 1 .4 ___________________ 1X2^3 _______ 11 7. 4 1 6 .9 3-82 -6 . 1 -8 .1 -8 .9 -1 3 .2 - 7 . 7 -1 0 .9 -1 2 .3 -16.3 -1 3 .0 -1 9 .1 -2 3 .0 6.5 -3 .0 4-82 -6 . 3 -8 .2 -8 .9 -1 0 .1 -1 1 .6 -1 1 .7 -1 2 .9 -7 .9 - 1 0 . 8 - 1 2 . 0 - 1 5 . 4 - 1 2 . 5 - 17 *3 - 1 9 . 9 0 .7 -6 .5 1-83 -7 .0 -8 .8 -9 .5 -1 0 .6 -1 2 .1 -1 2 .2 -13 .3 -8 .8 - 1 1 . 5 - 1 2 . 7 - 1 5 . 7 - 1 3 . 2 - 1 7 »3 - 1 9 . 4 -4 .2 2-8 3 -3 .9 -5 .5 —6 . 0 -6 .8 -8 .0 -7 .8 -8 .6 -3 .8 -5 .9 -6 .5 -6 .7 -5 .4 -8 .1 -8 .5 7 .9 5 .7 8.8 19.6 73.1 3- 7 8 4—78 1-7 9 2-79 3 -7 9 4-7 9 1 -6 0 2 -8 0 3-8 0 4-80 1-81 2-81 3-81 4-81 1-8 2 2-82 3 -8 2 4-8 2 1 -8 3 _ -9 .9 1 1 3. 5 1 0 8. 2 -1 0 .3 -1 3 .7 -1 7 .4 1 2 4 . IP I N I T I A L QUARTER * NATIONAL INCOME BASIS p_rnpR £L t HILARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS AUGUST 19, 1983 HISTORICAL SOURCES OF NATIONAL INCOME AND PRODUCT ACCOUNTS DATA The NIPA estimates for 1929-76 are in The National Income and Product Accounts of the United States, 1929-76: StatisticaT Tables (Stock number TKT3-010-001Ol-1, price $10.Oo). Estimates for 19/7-79 and corrections for earlier years are in the July 1982 Survey of Current Business. Estimates for 1980-82 appear in the July 1983 Survey of Current Business. Estimates for the periods since, appear in subsquent issues of the monthly Survey of Current Business. These publications are available from the Superifiiendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, D.C. 20402. For further information, write to the National Income and Wealth Division (BE-54) Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 19 INVENTORIES COMPARED WI TH MONTHLY S A L E S * MANUFACTURING AND TRADE .6 8 68 . 64 64 .60 60 . 56 56 .52 52 . 48 48 . 44 44 . 40 40 . 36 36 1.3 6 - 32 1969 * RA T I OS 1970 1971 BASED ON S E A S O N A L L Y SHADED AREAS LATEST DATA 1972 REPRESENT PLOTTED: 1973 ADJUSTED PERIODS J UNE 1974 OF 1975 1976 1977 1978 D ATA . BUSINESS 1979 SOURCE: 1980 1981 U . S . DEPARTMENT 1982 OF 1983 C OMME R C E RECESSIONS. PRELIMINARY PREPARED 20 BY FEDERAL RESERVE BA NK OF ST. LOUIS
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