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N a t io n a l E c o n o m ic
April 1991
T h e

fa ilu r e

o f th e G r a m m - R u d m a n - H o llin g s

O m n ib u s B u d g e t R e c o n c ilia t io n
lim its

on

d is c r e tio n a r y

to re d u c e

th e d e fic it.

A c t o f 1990.

s p e n d in g

and

p ro ce d u re s

T h e

new

a pay-as-you-go

R e c e n t d e f ic it p r o je c tio n s

by

to

la w

le s s e n

fe d e ra l b u d g e t d e fic it w o e s

e s ta b lis h e s

s o m e in n o v a tiv e

r e q u ir e m e n t fo r m a n y

th e

p ro g ra m s.

C o n g r e s s io n a l B u d g e t O f f ic e

le d

b u d g e ta ry
T h e

C o n g r e s s to p a s s th e

r u le s ,

p u rp o se

(C B O ),

in c lu d in g

d o lla r

o f th e le g is la t io n

h o w e ve r,

show

is

th a t n o p r o ­

g r e s s is e x p e c t e d i n t h e n e a r t e r m . I n s t e a d , t h e d e f i c i t w i l l p r o b a b l y b a l l o o n o v e r t h e n e x t o n e o r t w o y e a r s b e f o r e t r e n d in g
lo w e r

in

T h e
th e

1993.

ta b le

a c tu a l

b u d g e ta ry

b e lo w

d e fic it

c lu d in g

as

a

C B O

h o w e ve r,

c o d ifie s

re ce n t h e a v y

B y

v ie w .
a ll

T h e

m e a su re s,

C B O

w as

s p e n d in g

fo r

s ta n d a r d iz e d
h o w e ve r,

Bu d g et

fo r

unchanged

s p e n d in g

s p e n d in g

and

p r o je c tio n s

p e rce n t o f G N P

w i ll r e m a in

b u d g e t a s s u m in g

a lte r n a tiv e
d e fic it.

o f M an ag em en t

show s

p o lic ie s

b u d g e t la w ,
b a s e lin e

O f fic e

6 .3
and

lim its

lim its

now

d e p o s it

fo re c a s ts ,

se v e ra l m e a su re s
p e rce n t

th a t

a re

P r o je c t io n s

o f

b e lo w ,

o f th e d e fic it as

1983.

le s s

p r o v id e s

in s u r a n c e

d e fic it

in

show n

T h e

or

w ill

th e

be

th a n

a new
th e

s u r p lu s

h ig h e r

p r o je c te d

in

th e

b e fo re

B u d g e t

fo r

it

b a s e lin e

is

D e fic it

w ill

S e c u r ity

e s t im a t e

1990

B a s e lin e
B a s e lin e ,

(a n

o f th e

T he

r e c e n t h ig h

assum es

w ith

F ro m

th is

o f th e

s p e n d in g

p r o v id e s
on

th e
ex­
an
th e

lo w e r .

a s

a

P e rc e n t

1991

o f

G N P

ye a rs
1992

1993

5.3 %

5 .0 %

3.7 %

4 .1

lim it s

new

m ea su re ,

r e c e s s io n

4 .1 %
a s s u m in g

T he

T h e re fo re ,

o ff- b u d g e t ite m )
e ffe c t

fo r

th a t c u r r e n t

in f la t io n .

a d ju s t m e n t s .

p r o je c tio n s .

F is c a l
D e fic it m e a s u re

c o n c lu s io n s .

m e a su re

in c r e a s e

in f la t io n a r y

d e fic it

S o c ia l

C B O

s im ila r

a p e rce n t o f G N P .

s p e n d in g

s ta n d a rd

re m o ve s

F e d e ra l

th e

suggest

tr a d itio n a l

th a t c u r r e n t d is c r e tio n a r y

e m p lo y m e n t d e fic it
th e

not

5 .3

4 .7

3 .4

— E x c lu d in g

d e p o s it in s u r a n c e

3 .0

3 .5

3 .1

2
.6

— E x c lu d in g

o ff- b u d g e t ite m s

5 .1

6 .4

5 .9

4 .6

3 .8

4 .1

3 .7

2
.6

— S t a n d a r d iz e d


V ie w s


e m p lo y m e n t d e fic it

— Ja m e s

T H E
F E D E R A L
R E S E R IE
B A N K o f
S E I / H I S

e x p r e s s e d d o n o t n e c e s s a r i ly r e f l e c t o f f ic ia l p o s i t io n s o f t h e F e d e ra l R e s e r v e S y s t e m .

B .

B u lla r d

T O T A L C IV IL IA N E M P L O Y M E N T
(Compounded A nnual Rates of Change)
TERM
INAL
MNH
OT
7-89

TH
OUSAND
S
OF PERSONS

MNH
INITIAL 1 O T
8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

8-89

0 .0
0 .7

0 .3

1.3

1.2

2 .6

1.1

1.0

1.9

1 .7

1-90

0 .9

0 .8

1.4

1.1

0.1

0.9

1.3

1.2

0 .5

0 .6

8 -9 0

9—
90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

- 0 .1

1.0

7-90

0 .4

2-90

6-90

3.1

12-89

5-90

4-90

2.1

11-89

3-90

- 1 .5

10-89

2-90

1.6

9-89

1-90

117,565
117,417
117,619
117,920
117,957
117,945
118,074

1.3

5-90

1.1

1.0

1.4

1.3

0 .8

0 .9

1.5

1.6

4-90

0 .8

0 .7

1.0

0 .8

0 .3

0 .3

0.5

0.1

- 1 .5

5-90

0 .9

0 .8

1.1

1.0

0 .6

0 .7

0 .8

0.7

0 .2

6-90

0 .8

0 .7

0 .9

0.8

0 .5

0 .5

0.6

0.4

0 .0

0.7

- 0 .4

7-90

0 .4

0 .3

0 .5

0.3

0 .0

- 0 .1

-0 .1

- 0 .4

- 0 .9

- 0 .7

- 2 .0

- 3 .5

8-90

0 .2

0 .1

0 .3

0.1

-0 .3

-0 .3

-0 .4

-0 .6

- 1 .1

- 1 .0

- 2 .0

- 2 .7

118,235
118,090
118,277

1.9

118,237
117,882
117,690

- 1 .9

9-90

0 .3

0.2

0 .4

0 .2

0 .0

- 0 .1

-0 .1

-0 .3

- 0 .6

- 0 .4

- 1 .0

- 1 .2

0 .0

2 .0

10-90

0.2

0.1

0 .2

0.1

- 0 .2

- 0 .2

- 0 .2

- 0 .4

- 0 .7

- 0 .6

-1 .1

- 1 .3

- 0 .5

0 .2

- 1 .5

11-90

0 .0

- 0 .1

0 .0

- 0 .2

- 0 .5

- 0 .5

- 0 .6

- 0 .8

- 1 .1

- 1 .0

- 1 .5

- 1 .7

- 1 .3

- 1 .0

- 2 .5

- 3 .5

12-90

0.1

0 .0

0.1

0 .0

- 0 .3

- 0 .3

- 0 .3

- 0 .5

- 0 .7

- 0 .7

- 1 .0

- 1 .1

- 0 .6

- 0 .3

- 1 .0

- 0 .8

117,883
117,733
117,386
117,574

1.9

1-91

- 0 .3

- 0 .4

- 0 .3

- 0 .5

- 0 .7

- 0 .8

- 0 .9

- 1 .1

- 1 .3

- 1 .3

- 1 .7

- 1 .9

- 1 .6

- 1 .6

- 2 .4

- 2 .7

- 2 .3

- 6 .5

2-91

- 0 .3

- 0 .4

- 0 .3

- 0 .4

- 0 .7

- 0 .8

- 0 .8

- 1 .0

- 1 .2

- 1 .2

- 1 .5

- 1 .7

- 1 .4

- 1 .3

- 2 .0

- 2 .1

- 1 .6

- 3 .3

0 .0

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8 -90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

116,922
116,918

INITIAL M N H
OT

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BAN OF ST. LOUIS
K
M R H 8» 1991
AC

PAYROLL EM PLO YM EN T
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERM
INAL
MNH
OT
7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

8-89

2.1
1.8

2 .0

INITIAL M N H
OT
OF PERSONS
4-90 5-90

3-90

TH
OUSANDS
6-90

1.2

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

2 .7

10-89

2-90

1.5

9-89

1-90

108,628
108,868
108,980

11-89

2 .1

2 .3

2.1

3 .0

12-89

2 .0

2.1

1.9

2 .2

109,245
1.5

109,383

1-90

2 .2

2 .3

2 .2

2 .5

2 .3

3 .0

2-90

2 .3

2 .5

2 .4

2 .7

2 .6

3.2

3 .4

3-90

2 .3

2 .4

2 .3

2 .5

2 .4

2 .7

2 .6

1.8

4-90

2 .1

2.1

2 .1

2 .2

2 .1

2 .2

1.9

1.2

0 .6

5-90

2 .4

2 .4

2 .4

2 .6

2 .5

2 .7

2 .7

2 .4

2 .7

4 .9

6-90

2 .4

2 .4

2 .4

2 .6

2 .5

2 .7

2 .6

2 .4

2 .6

3 .6

2 .3

7-90

2 .1

2 .1

2 .1

2 .2

2 .1

2.1

2 .0

1.7

1.7

2 .1

0 .7

-1 .0

8-90

1.8

1.8

1.7

1 .8

1 .7

1.7

1.5

1.2

1.1

1.2

0 .0

- 1 .2

- 1 .4

9-90

1.7

1.7

1.6

1.6

1.5

1.5

1.3

1.0

0 .9

1.0

0 .0

- 0 .8

- 0 .7

0 .0

10-90

1.4

1.4

1.3

1.5

1.2

1.2

0.9

0 .6

0 .5

0 .5

- 0 .4

- 1 .1

- 1 .1

- 1 .0

- 1 .9

11-90

1.2

1.1

1.0

1 .0

0 .8

0 .8

0 .6

0 .3

0 .1

0 .0

- 0 .8

- 1 .4

- 1 .5

-1 .6

- 2 .4

- 2 .9

12-90

1.0

0 .9

0 .8

0 .8

0 .6

0 .6

0.3

0.1

-0 .1

- 0 .2

- 0 .9

- 1 .5

- 1 .6

- 1 .6

- 2 .2

- 2 .3

- 1 .7

1-91

0 .8

0.7

0 .6

0 .6

0 .4

0 .3

0.1

- 0 .2

- 0 .4

- 0 .5

-1 .1

- 1 .6

- 1 .7

- 1 .8

- 2 .3

- 2 .4

- 2 .1

- 2 .5

2-91

0 .6

0.6

0 .5

0 .4

0 .3

0 .2

- 0 .1

-0 .3

- 0 .5

- 0 .6

- 1 .2

- 1 .7

- 1 .8

- 1 .8

- 2 .2

-2 .3

- 2 .1

- 2 .3

-2 .0

7-89

8 -8 9

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8 -90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

109,654
109,958
110,122
110,177
110,617
110,829
110,740
110.613
110,612
110.432
110.165
110.004
109.771P
109.587P

IN IT IA L MONTH
P- PRELIMINARY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS
MARCH 8* 1991

2




EMPLOYMENT
R A T IO

S C A L E

1983

R A T IO

1984

1985

1986

1987

S C A L E

1988

1989
1990
1991
SOURCEt U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
BEGINNING JANUARY 1986. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE NEW PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING
MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0.3 7
..
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED* FEBRUARY PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOJIS

UN E M P L O Y M E N T RATE
PERCENT

SEASONALLY

A D JU S T E D

PERCENT
I 1 .0

10.

10.0

9.

9 .0

8.

8.0

7.

7 .0

6.

6 .0

5 .

5 .0

4.

4 .0
1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989
1990
1991
SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR

PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE
LATEST DATA PLOTTED» FEBRUARY

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

C O N S U M E R P R IC E IN D E X F O R A L L U R B A N C O N S U M E R S
(Compounded A nnual Rates of Change)

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

2-90

3-90

5-90

1982-84«100
6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90

?
o

8-89

*
I
v
O
o

IN IT IA L MONTH
7-89

1
V
©
o

TERMINAL
MONTH

11-90 12-90

1-91
124.6

8-89

1.0

9-89

1.9

2 .9

10-89

2 .9

3.9

4 .9

11-89

3 .4

4 .2

4 .9

4 .9

12-89

5.7

4 .4

4 .9

4 .9

4 .9

124.9
125.4
125.9
126.4
127.6

1-90

5 .0

5 .9

6 .6

7.2

8 .4

12.0

2-90

5.1

5 .9

6 .5

6 .8

7 .5

8 .9

5 .8

5-90

5 .1

5 .7

6 .2

6.4

6 .8

7 .5

5 .3

4 .8

4-90

4 .8

5 .3

5 .7

5 .8

6 .0

6 .3

4 .5

3 .8

128.2
128.7
129.0

2 .8

129.2

5-90

4 .5

5 .0

5 .2

5 .3

5 .3

5 .4

3 .8

3 .2

2 .4

1.9

6-90

4 .8

5 .2

5 .5

5 .6

5 .6

5 .8

4 .6

4 .3

4 .1

4 .7

7 .7

7-90

4 .8

5 .2

5 .4

5 .5

5 .5

5 .6

4 .6

4 .4

4 .3

4 .7

6 .2

8-90

5 .3

5 .6

5 .9

6 .0

6.1

6.2

5 .4

5 .4

5 .5

6 .2

7.6

7.6

10.6

9-90

5 .6

5 .9

6.2

6 .3

6 .4

6.6

5 .9

6 .0

6 .2

6.8

8 .1

8 .2

10.1

9 .5

10-90

5 .7

6 .0

6.3

6.4

6 .5

6 .7

6.1

6.1

6 .3

6 .9

8 .0

8 .1

9.2

8 .5

11-90

5 .6

5 .9

6.1

6 .2

6 .3

6 .4

5 .9

5 .9

6 .0

6.5

7.2

7 .2

7.8

6 .9

5 .6

3 .7

12-90

5 .4

5 .7

5 .9

6 .0

6.1

6 .2

5 .7

5 .6

5 .7

6.1

6.7

6 .6

6.9

6 .0

4 .9

3 .7

3 .6

1-91

5 .4

5 .7

5 .9

6 .0

6 .0

6.1

5 .6

5 .6

5 .7

6 .0

6 .6

6 .4

6 .7

5 .9

5 .1

4 .3

4 .6

5 .5

2-91

5 .3

5 .5

5 .7

5 .7

5 .8

5 .9

5 .4

5 .4

5 .4

5 .7

6.1

5 .9

6.1

5 .4

4 .6

3.9

3.9

4 .1

2 .7

7-89

8 -89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8 -90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

130.0
4 .7

130.5
131.6
132.6
133.4

7 .5

133.8
134.2
134.8
135.1

INITIAL M N H
OT

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
M R H 19, 1991
AC

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FINISHED G O O D S
(Compounded AnnuaJ Rates of Change)
INITIAL M N H
OT
8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

8-89

1 .6
3 .6

7.1

2 .7

4 .7

3 .7

3 .6

5 .4

5 .0

3 .7

5-90

1982 * 100
6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

0 .0

12-89

4-90

7 .6

11-89

3-90

6 .5

10-89

2-90

- 3 .1

9-89

0
*
1

TERM
INAL
MNH
OT
7-89

7 .6

113.5
114.1
114.8
114.8
115.5

1-90

6 .6

8 .7

9.2

9.7

15.0

2 2.9

2-90

5 .5

7 .0

7.1

6 .9

9 .4

10.3

- 1 .0

117.5
117.4

3-90

4 .6

5 .8

5 .7

5 .3

6 .7

6.4

- 1 .0

- 1 .0

4-90

4 .0

4 .9

4 .7

4 .2

5 .1

4 .5

- 1 .0

- 1 .0

- 1 .0

5-90

4 .0

4 .8

4 .6

4 .2

4 .9

4 .4

0 .3

0 .7

1.5

4 .2

6-90

3 .6

4 .4

4 .1

3.7

4 .2

3 .7

0 .2

0 .5

1.0

2 .1

0 .0

7-90

3 .7

4 .3

4.1

3 .7

4 .2

3 .7

0 .9

1.2

1 .8

2 .8

2 .1

8-90

4 .5

5 .1

5 .0

4 .7

5 .3

5 .0

2 .6

3 .3

4 .1

5 .5

5 .9

9 .0

14.1

9-90

5 .2

5 .9

5 .9

5 .7

6 .3

6.2

4 .2

5 .0

6.1

7 .5

8 .4

11.3

15.1

16.2

10-90

5 .9

6 .6

6 .6

6 .5

7.1

7.1

5 .5

6 .3

7 .4

8 .9

9 .9

12.5

15.4

16.1

16.0

0
*
1

5 .9

6 .5

6 .5

6 .4

7 .0

6.9

5 .4

6 .2

7.1

8 .3

9 .0

10.9

12.7

12.3

10.4

5 .0

12-90

5 .1

5 .6

5 .6

5 .4

5 .9

5 .7

4 .3

4 .8

5 .5

6 .3

6 .6

7 .8

8 .5

7 .2

4 .4

- 1 .0

- 6 .6

1-91

4 .7

5 .2

5 .1

5 .0

5 .4

5 .2

3 .8

4 .3

4 .8

5 .5

5 .7

6 .5

6 .9

5 .5

3 .0

- 1 .0

- 3 .8

- 1 .0

2-91

4 .1

4 .5

4 .4

4 .2

4 .5

4 .5

3 .0

3 .5

3 .7

4 .2

4 .2

4 .8

4 .8

3 .4

1.0

- 2 .4

- 4 .8

- 3 .9

7-89

8 -89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90




117.3
117.2
117.6
117.6
4 .2

118.0
119.3
120.8

122.8

11-90

122.1

I
*
e

?
*
o

122.5

122.0
- 6 .7

121.5

1-91

IN IT IA L MONTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
MARCH 15. 1991

4




PRICES

RATIO SCALE

RATIO SCALE
1982-100

CONSUMER P R IC E S D A TA AR E ON A 19 * 2 - 6 4 -1 0 0 BASE
C P I - U O A TA B E G IN N IN G 1983 IN C O R P O R A TE A R E N TA L E Q U IV A L E N C E M EASURE FOR H O M E O VN ER SH IP C O S T S .
P E R C E N TA G E S ARE AN NUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S
L A T E S T O A TA P L O T T E D :

IN D IC A T E D .

FE B R U A R Y

PR EP A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T .

RATIO SCALE

PRODUCER P R I C E S

P E R C E N TA G E S ARE AN NU AL R A T E S OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S
L A T E S T D A TA P L O T T E D ; F E B R U A R Y

L O U IS

RATIO SCALE

IN D IC A T E D .

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

P R O D U C E R P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D C O N S U M E R F O O D S
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
MONTH

IN IT IA L MONTH

7-89

8 -8 9

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

8-89

1.0
5 .2

5 .7

5 .2

5 .5

9 .5

6 .6

7 .2

10.5

8 .8

5-90

1982 «

6-90

7-90

8 -9 0

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

118.8
118.6
119.9
120.4
121.6

12.6

123.6

1-90

9 .0

10.0

13.2

12.9

17.0

2 1.6

2-90

9 .4

10.4

13.0

12.8

15.4

16.9

12.3

3-90

7.4

7 .9

9 .7

8 .8

9 .8

8 .8

2 .9

4-90

5 .7

5 .9

7 .0

5 .9

6.1

4 .5

- 0 .6

- 6 .5

- 7 .5

5-90

5 .6

5 .8

6 .8

5 .8

5 .9

4 .6

0 .7

- 2 .9

- 1 .4

6-90

4 .9

5 .0

5 .8

4 .8

4 .7

3 .5

0 .2

- 2 .6

- 1 .6

1.5

- 1 .9

7-90

5 .0

5 .1

5 .8

4 .9

4 .9

3 .8

1.1

- 1 .0

0 .2

2 .9

2 .0

124.8
124.2

- 5 .6

123.4
123.9

5 .0

123.7
124.3

6 .0

5 .1

5 .2

5 .9

5 .1

5 .1

4 .2

1.9

0 .3

1.6

3.9

3.6

6 .5

7 .0

9-90

4 .3

4 .3

4 .9

4 .1

4 .0

3.1

1.0

- 0 .5

0 .3

2 .0

1 .2

2 .3

0 .5

- 5 .6

10-90

4 .5

4 .5

5 .0

4 .3

4 .3

3 .5

1.6

0 .4

1.2

2 .8

2 .3

3 .4

2 .6

0.5

7.0

0
1

125.0

8-90

4 .4

4 .4

4 .9

4 .2

4 .2

3.4

1.8

0 .6

1.5

2 .8

2 .4

3.3

2 .7

1.3

4 .9

2 .9

3 .8

3 .8

4 .2

3 .5

3 .4

2 .6

1.1

0 .0

0 .6

1.7

1.2

1.8

1.0

- 0 .5

1.3

- 1 .4

- 5 .6

124.4
125.1
125.4
124.8

1-91

3 .4

3 .3

3 .6

3 .0

2 .8

2 .1

0 .6

- 0 .3

0 .2

1.1

0.6

1.0

0 .2

- 1 .1

0 .0

- 2 .2

- 4 .7

- 3 .8

2-91

3 .3

3 .3

3 .6

3 .0

2 .8

2 .2

0 .8

-0 .1

0 .4

1.3

0.9

1.2

0 .6

- 0 .5

0 .6

- 1 .0

- 2 .2

- 0 .5

2 .9

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1
*
o

12-90

1 00

1-91

5 .1

12-89

4-90

14.0

11-89

3-90

- 2 .0

10-89

2-90

4 .1

9-89

1-90

124.4

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8 -90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

124.7

INITIAL M N H
OT

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BAN OF ST, LOUIS
K
M R H 15» 1991
AC

PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FINISHED G O O D S, EXCLUDING FO O D S
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)

1.6

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

1982 * 100
6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90

11-90 12-90

1-91

- 6 .2

9-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

111.7
10.1

112.6

2 .9

7 .8

5 .5

1.6

4 .4

1.6

12-89

2 .4

4 .6

2 .9

1.6

5 .4

5 .6

8 .1

7 .6

8 .4

14.0

23.3

2-90

4 .2

6 .0

5 .2

5.1

7 .7

8 .8

- 4 .1

3-90

3.5

5 .0

4 .1

3.9

5 .4

5 .4

-2 .6

-1 .0

o

10-89
11-89

1
©

8-89

INITIAL M N H
OT
8 -89

?
o

TERM
INAL
MNH
OT
7-89

113.1
- 2 .1

112.9
113.4
115.4
115.0
114.9

4-90

3 .3

4 .6

3 .8

3 .6

4 .7

4 .6

- 1 .0

0 .5

2 .1

5-90

3 .4

4 .6

3 .9

3 .7

4 .7

4 .5

0.3

1.8

3 .2

4 .3

6-90

3 .2

4 .2

3 .6

3 .3

4 .1

3 .9

0 .4

1.6

2 .5

2 .6

1.0

7-90

3 .2

4 .1

3 .5

3 .3

4 .0

3 .8

0 .9

1.9

2 .6

2 .8

2 .1

3 .2

8-90

4 .3

5 .2

4 .8

4 .7

5 .5

5 .5

3.1

4 .4

5 .5

6 .4

7.1

10.3

17.9

9-90

5 .5

6 .5

6 .2

6 .3

7.2

7.4

5 .5

7 .0

8 .3

9 .6

11.0

14.6

20 .7

23 .7

115.1
115.5
115.6
115.9
117.5
119.6

10-90

6.4

7 .4

7 .2

7.3

8 .2

8 .5

7 .0

8 .5

9 .9

11.2

12.7

15.8

20 .4

21 .6

19.6

11-90

6 .4

7 .3

7.1

7.2

8 .1

8 .3

6 .9

8 .2

9.4

10.5

11.6

13.8

16.6

16.2

12.7

6.1

12-90

5 .5

6 .3

6.1

6.1

6 .8

6 .9

5 .5

6 .5

7 .4

8 .1

8 .6

9.9

11.3

9 .7

5 .5

- 1 .0

- 7 .6

1-91

5 .2

5 .9

5 .7

5 .7

6 .3

6 .3

5 .0

5 .9

6 .6

7.1

7 .5

8 .4

9 .4

7 .7

4 .1

- 0 .7

- 3 .9

0 .0

2-91

4 .4

5 .0

4 .7

4 .7

5.1

5.1

3 .8

4 .5

5 .0

5 .3

5 .5

6.0

6.4

4 .6

1.2

- 2 .9

- 5 .8

- 4 .8

- 9 .5

7-89

8 -89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8 -90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91




121.4
122.0
121.2
121.2
120.2

I N IT IA L MONTH

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS
MARCH 1 5 , 1991

6

I N D U S T R I A L

P R O D U C T I O N

R A T I O SCALE

R A T I O S C A LE
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1987-100

1987*100
20

1 15

1 10

105

100

95

90

85

80

75
1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST OATA PLOTTED» FEBRUARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
MNH
OT
7-89

INITIAL M N H
OT
8 -89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

8 -89

2 .2
- 0 .4

- 2 .7

0 .8

- 0 .4

- 0 .6

1 .8

1.1

1.5

5 .1

1-90

- 0 .6

- 1 .5

- 1 .9

- 0 .7

2-90

1.1

0 .6

0 .7

2 .2

1.5

5-90

1987 « 100
6-90

7-90

4 .5

12-89

4-90

- 5 .4

11-89

3-90

0 .0

10-89

2-90

4*5

9-89

1-90

8 -9 0

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

108.2
108.2
107.7
108.1
5 .7

108.6

- 3 .3 - 1 1 .5

107.5

- 0 .6

11.8

108.5

3-90

1.5

1.1

1.3

2 .7

2 .2

1.1

8 .1

4 .5

4-90

1.2

0 .8

1 .0

2 .1

1.6

0 .6

4 .9

1.7

- 1 .1

5-90

1.8

1 .5

1.7

2 .7

2 .4

1.8

5 .4

3 .4

2 .8

6 .8

6-90

2 .3

2 .1

2 .3

3 .4

3 .2

2 .8

5 .9

4 .5

4 .5

7.4

8 .0

7-90

2 .4

2 .2

2 .4

3 .4

3 .2

2 .9

5 .5

4 .3

4 .2

6 .0

5 .6

3 .3

8-90

2 .3

2 .1

2 .3

3 .1

3 .0

2 .*

4 .8

3 .7

3 .6

4 .8

4 .1

2 .2

1.1

9-90

2 .2

2 .0

2 .2

2 .9

2 .8

2 .5

4 .4

3 .3

3.1

4 .0

3 .3

1 .8

1.1

1.1

10-90

1.6

1.3

1.4

2 .0

1.8

1.4

3 .0

1 .9

1.6

2 .0

1.1

- 0 .5

- 1 .8

- 3 .2

- 7 .3

109.9

11-90

0 .3

0.1

0 .1

0 .5

0 .2

- 0 .3

0 .9

- 0 .2

- 0 .8

- 0 .8

- 2 .0

- 3 .9

- 5 .6

- 7 . 7 - 1 1 .8 -1 6 .1

108.3

108.9
108.8
109.4
110.1
110.4
110.5
110.6

12-90

- 0 .4

- 0 .7

- 0 .7

- 0 .4

- 0 .8

- 1 .3

- 0 .3

- 1 .4

- 2 .1

- 2 .2

- 3 .4

- 5 .2

- 6 .8

- 8 .7 -1 1 .7 -1 3 .9 - 1 1 .5

1-91

- 0 .7

- 1 .0

- 1 .1

- 0 .8

- 1 .2

- 1 .7

- 0 .8

- 1 .9

- 2 .5

- 2 .7

- 3 .8

- 5 .4

- 6 .8

- 8 .3 -1 0 .5 -1 1 .5

- 9 .1

- 6 .5

2-91

- 1 .2

- 1 .5

- 1 .6

- 1 .4

- 1 .8

- 2 .3

- 1 .5

-2 .6

- 3 .2

- 3 .4

-4 .5

- 5 .9

- 7 .2

- 8 .5 - 1 0 .3 - 1 1 .0

- 9 .3

- 8 .1

- 9 .7

7-89

8 -8 9

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8 -9 0

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

107.2
10 6 .6P
10 5 .7P

IN IT IA L MONTH
P- PRELIMINARY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS
MARCH 15» 1991

7

P E R S O N A L
R A T IO

I N C O M E

MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES

S C A L E

TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

R A T IO

S C A L E

TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS

4.

4 .8

4.

4 .4

4.

4 .0

3.

3 .6

3.

3 .2

2.

2.8

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988
1989
1990
1991
SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt FEBRUARY PRELIMINARY
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

PERSONAL IN C O M E
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)

8-89

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
AN U
N AL RATES

INITIAL M N H
OT

TERM
INAL
MNH
OT
7-89

8 -8 9

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

5-90

4-90

0.1

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

4»398.7
4 .4 1 1 .6

9-89

1.8

3 .6

10-89

3 .9

5 .9

8 .3

4»441.0

11-89

5 .0

6 .6

8 .2

5 .5

6 .8

7 .9

7 .8

4 .4 7 0 .0

8 .1

12-89

7.4

4»496.7
4*532.2

1-90

6 .2

7 .4

8 .4

8 .5

8 .6

9 .9

2-90

6 .5

7 .5

8 .4

8 .4

8 .5

9 .0

8 .1

4 ,5 6 1 .6

3-90

6 .8

7 .8

8 .5

8 .5

8 .6

9 .0

8 .6

9.1

4—
90

6 .3

7.1

7 .6

7 .5

7 .4

7 .4

6 .5

5 .8

2 .6

4»594.7

5-90

6.1

6 .8

7.2

7.1

6 .9

6 .8

6 .0

5 .3

3 .5

4 .5

4 ,6 0 4 .5
4 ,6 2 1 .4

6-90

6 .0

6 .6

7.0

6 .8

6 .6

6 .5

5 .8

5 .3

4 .1

4 .8

5 .1

7-90

6 .0

6 .6

6 .9

6 .7

6 .5

6 .4

5 .8

5 .4

4 .5

5 .2

5 .5

5 .8

8-90

5 .8

6 .3

6 .5

6 .4

6 .2

6 .0

5 .5

5 .0

4 .2

4 .7

4 .7

4 .5

3 .2

4 ,6 4 0 .7
4 ,6 6 2 .7
4 »675.0

9-90

5 .8

6 .3

6 .5

6 .3

6.1

6 .0

5 .5

5 .2

4 .5

4 .9

5 .0

5 .0

4 .6

6 .0

10-90

5 .4

5 .8

5 .9

5 .7

5 .5

5 .3

4 .8

4 .4

3 .8

4 .0

3 .9

3 .6

2 .9

2 .7

- 0 .5

11-90

5 .4

5 .7

5 .9

5 .7

5 .5

5 .3

4 .9

4 .5

4 .0

4 .2

4 .1

3.9

3 .5

3 .6

2 .4

5 .3

12-90

5 .5

5 .8

6 .0

5 .8

5 .6

5 .5

5.1

4 .8

4 .3

4 .6

4 .6

4 .5

4 .2

4 .4

3 .9

6 .2

7.1

1-91

4 .9

5 .2

5 .3

5 .1

4 .9

4 .7

4 .2

3 .9

3 .4

3 .5

3 .4

3 .1

2 .7

2 .5

1.7

2 .4

1.0

- 4 .7

2-91

4 .8

5 .0

5 .1

4 .9

4 .7

4 .5

4 .1

3 .8

3 .4

3 .4

3 .3

3.1

2 .7

2 .6

2 .0

2 .6

1 .7

- 0 .9

3 .0

7-89

8 -8 9

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

4-90

5 -90

6-90

7-90

8 -90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

4»697.8
4 »695.9
4 ,7 1 6 .2
4 ,7 4 3 .3
4 »724.3
4»735.9P

IN IT IA L MONTH
PRELIMINARY




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS
MARCH 28» 1991

8

RETAIL SALES*
R A T IO

R A T IO

S C A L E

B I L L I O N S

1983

OF

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

D O LLA R S

1984

1985

1986

B I L L I O N S

OF

S C A L E

D O LLA RS

1987

1988
1989
1990
1991
SOURCE* U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt JANUARY, FEBRUARY ADVANCE ESTIMATE
«REVISED FROM 1988
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

RETAIL SALES
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
MN
O TH
7—
89
8-8 9
9-89

1-90

2-90

INITIAL M N H
OT
DOLLARS
5-90 4-90 5-90

MILLIONS O
F
6-90

7-90

8 -9 0

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91
147,467

7.3
- 0 .2

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

13.4

10-89

8 -8 9

147,659

1.6
- 6 .3 -1 3 .6

145.877

2 .5

- 0 .9

- 2 .2

147,119

1.8

-1 .0

- 1 .8

4 .7

- 1 .0

6 .9

5 .7

6 .8

14.5

16.5

37.1

2 -90

5 .5

4 .3

4 .8

10.0

9 .7

15.5

- 2 .6

3-90

4 .4

3.1

3 .4

7 .2

6 .5

8 .8

- 5 .1

- 5 .5

4 -90

2 .6

1.4

1.4

4 .1

2 .8

3 .8

- 5 .4

- 6 .8 -1 0 .0

5 -90

2 .3

1.2

1.1

5 .4

2 .2

2 .9

- 4 .2

- 4 .7

- 5 .4

- 0 .5

6-90

3 .2

2 .2

2 .2

4 .4

5 .5

4 .5

- 1 .2

- 0 .9

0 .0

5 .4

11.8

7-90

3 .5

2 .4

2 .5

4 .5

5 .7

4 .4

- 0 .2

0 .5

1.2

5 .5

8 .3

4 .9

8 -9 0

5 .3

2 .5

2 .6

4 .5

3 .7

4 .5

0 .5

0 .7

1.6

4 .7

6 .5

4 .0

3.1

9-90

3 .9

3 .2

3 .5

5 .0

4 .4

5 .0

1.6

2 .2

5 .2

6.1

7 .8

6 .5

7 .2

11.5

10-90

3 .4

2 .7

2 .8

4 .5

3 .8

4 .5

1.1

1.6

2 .4

4 .6

5 .6

4 .1

3 .9

4 .5

- 2 .5

11-90

3 .5

2 .8

2 .9

4 .5

3 .8

4 .2

1.4

1 .9

2 .6

4 .5

5 .4

4 .2

4 .0

4 .2

0 .8

12-90

1.8

1 .2

1.1

2 .5

1.6

1.9

- 0 .8

- 0 .7

- 0 .5

0 .9

1.1

- 0 .5

- 1 .6

- 2 .7

- 7 .0

1-91

0 .8

0.1

0 .0

1 .0

0 .3

0 .4

- 2 .2

- 2 .1

- 2 .0

- 1 .1

- 1 .1

- 2 .8

- 4 .1

- 5 .5

- 9 .5 - 1 1 .5 - 1 8 .4 -1 5 .7

2-91

1.5

0 .6

0 .6

1 .5

1 .0

1.1

- 1 .5

- 1 .1

-0 .9

0 .0

0 .1

-1 .5

- 2 .1

- 5 .0

- 5 .6

- 5 .5

10.5

7-89

8-89

9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

4-90

5-90

6-90

7-90

8-90

9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90

1-91

11-89
12-89
1-90

10.7
146.997

150.914
150,579
150,156
148,823
148,759
150,143
150,745
151,135
152,512
152,191
152,711

4 .2
- 9 .2 - 2 0 .9

-6 .4

- 9 .7

149,750
147.635P
148,869E

IN IT IA L MONTH
P- PRELIMINARY
E- ESTIMATED




PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
MARCH 13, 1991

H O U R L Y C O M P E N S A T IO N , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R
(Compounded A nnual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER
1-86

2-86

4 .3

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

1982-100
4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90
118.0

4 .5

3-86

2-86

119.2

4 .1

120.8

4-86

4 .7

4 .8

5 .5

1-87

4 .1

4 .0

3 .9

2 .3

2-87

3 .6

3.4

3.1

2 .0

1.7

3-87

3 .7

3 .5

3.4

2 .7

2 .8

4 .0

121.5
122.0
123.2
125.5

4-87

4 .2

4 .2

4 .2

3 .9

4 .4

5 .8

7 .7

1-88

4 .0

4 .0

3.9

3.6

4 .0

4 .7

5 .1

2 .6

2-88

4 .2

4 .1

4 .1

3 .9

4 .2

4 .8

5 .1

3 .9

5 .2

126.3
127.9
129.7

3-88

4 .3

4 .3

4 .3

4.1

4 .5

5 .0

5 .3

4 .5

5 .5

5 .7

4-88

4 .2

4 .2

4 .2

4 .1

4 .3

4 .8

4 .9

4 .2

4 .8

4 .6

3 .4

1-89

4.1

4 .1

4 .1

3 .9

4 .2

4 .5

4 .6

4 .0

4 .4

4 .1

3 .3

3.1

2-89

4 .0

4 .0

4 .0

3 .8

4 .0

4 .3

4 .3

3 .8

4 .0

3 .8

3.1

2 .9

2 .8

130.8
131.8
132.7

3-89

3 .8

3 .8

3.7

3 .6

3 .7

3 .9

3 .9

3 .4

3 .6

3 .2

2 .6

2 .4

2 .0

1.2

4-89

3 .7

3 .7

3 .6

3 .5

3 .6

3 .8

3 .7

3 .3

3 .4

3.1

2 .5

2 .3

2 .0

1.7

133.1
133.8

2.1

135.3

1-90

3 .8

3 .7

3 .7

3 .5

3 .7

3 .8

3 .8

3 .4

3 .5

3 .3

2 .9

2 .7

2 .7

2 .6

3 .3

4 .6

2-90

3 .8

3 .8

3 .8

3 .7

3 .8

3.9

3 .9

3 .6

3 .7

3 .5

3 .2

3.1

3.1

3 .2

3 .9

4 .8

5 .1

3-90

3 .9

3 .9

3 .8

3 .7

3 .8

4 .0

4 .0

3 .7

3 .8

3 .6

3 .4

3 .4

3 .4

3 .5

4 .1

4 .8

4 .9

4 .8

4-90

3 .9

3 .8

3 .8

3.7

3 .8

4 .0

4 .0

3 .7

3 .8

3 .6

3 .4

3 .4

3 .4

3 .5

4 .0

4 .5

4 .5

4 .1

3 .5

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

137.0
138.6
139.8

INITIAL Q ARTER
U

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
M R H 6, 1991
AC

O U T PU T PER H O U R O F ALL PERSONS, BUSINESS SECTOR
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)

2-86

INITIAL QUARTER
2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

1982*100
4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

o
<>
r
»
(M

TERM
INAL
Q AR
U TER
1-86

3-90
109.7

- 0 .7

109.1

3-86

- 1 .5

- 2 .2

4-86

- 0 .6

-0 .5

1.1

1-87

- 0 .4

- 0 .2

0 .7

2-87

0 .3

0 .5

1.5

1.7

3 .0

3-87

0 .7

1.0

1.8

2 .1

2 .9

2 .9

4-87

1.1

1.4

2 .1

2 .4

3 .1

3.1

109.4
0 .4

109.5
110.3
111.1
3 .3

112.0

1-88

1.5

1.8

2 .5

2 .8

3 .4

3 .5

3 .8

4 .4

2-88

1.2

1.4

2 .0

2 .1

2 .5

2 .4

2 .2

1 .6

- 1 .1

3-88

1.3

1.6

2 .0

2 .2

2 .5

2 .4

2 .3

1 .9

0 .7

2 .5

4-88

1.0

1.2

1.6

1.7

1.9

1.7

1.4

1 .0

- 0 .1

0 .4

- 1 .7

1-89

0 .9

1.1

1.4

1.4

1.6

1.4

1.1

0 .7

- 0 .2

0.1

-l-.l

- 0 .4

2-89

0 .9

1.0

1 .3

1 .3

1.4

1.2

1.0

0 .6

- 0 .1

0.1

- 0 .7

- 0 .2

0 .0

3-89

0 .7

0 .8

1.1

1.1

1.1

0 .9

0 .7

0 .3

- 0 .4

- 0 .2

- 0 .9

- 0 .6

- 0 .7

- 1 .4

4-89

0 .5

0 .6

0 .8

0 .8

0 .8

0 .6

0 .3

0 .0

- 0 .7

- 0 .6

- 1 .2

- 1 .1

- 1 .3

- 1 .9

- 2 .5

1-90

0 .4

0 .5

0 .7

0 .6

0 .7

0 .5

0 .2

- 0 .1

-0 .7

- 0 .6

- 1 .1

- 1 .0

- 1 .2

- 1 .5

- 1 .6

- 0 .7

2-90

0 .4

0 .5

0 .7

0 .6

0 .7

0 .5

0 .3

0 .0

-0 .5

- 0 .4

- 0 .9

- 0 .7

- 0 .8

-1 .0

- 0 .8

0 .0

0 .7

3-90

0 .4

0 .5

0 .7

0 .7

0 .7

0 .5

0 .3

0 .0

- 0 .4

- 0 .3

- 0 .7

- 0 .5

- 0 .5

- 0 .6

- 0 .4

0 .2

0 .7

0 .7

4-90

0 .4

0 .5

0 .6

0 .6

0 .6

0 .5

0 .3

0 .0

- 0 .4

- 0 .3

-0 .6

- 0 .4

- 0 .5

-0 .5

- 0 .4

0 .2

0 .5

0.4

0 .0

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90




113.2
112.9
113.6
113.1
113.0
113.0
112.6
111.9
111.7
111.9
112.1
112.1

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS
MARCH 6. 1991

10

P R O D U C TIV ITY,
R A T I O SCALE
1982-100

1983

C O M P E N S A T IO N , AND L A B O R C O S T S
RATIO
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

SCALE
1982-100

1991

SOURCE« U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6E FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED» 4TH QUARTER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

UN IT LABOR COSTS, BUSINESS SECTOR
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERM
INAL
Q ARTER
U
1-86

INITIAL QU TER
AR
2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

1982*100
4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90
107.6

2—
86

5 .4

5-86

5 .7

6.1

4-86

5 .5

5 .3

4 .5

1-87

4 .5

4 .2

3 .5

2 .2

2-87

5 .5

2 .8

1.7

0.4

- 1 .4

5-87

2 .9

2 .4

1.6

0 .6

- 0 .2

1.1

4-87

5 .1

2 .8

2 .1

1.5

1 .5

2 .7

4 .4

1-88

2 .5

2 .1

1.4

0.8

0 .5

1.1

1.1

109.2
110.4
111.0
110.6
110.9
112.1
111.5

- 2 .1

113.5

2-88

2 .9

2 .6

2 .1

1.7

1.7

2 .4

2 .9

2 .2

6 .6

5-88

2 .9

2 .7

2 .5

2 .0

1 .9

2 .6

5 .0

2 .5

4 .9

5.2

4-88

5.1

2 .9

2 .6

2 .5

2 .5

3 .0

5 .4

3 .1

4 .9

4.1

5 .0

1-89

5 .2

3 .0

2 .7

2 .5

2 .5

3.1

5 .5

3 .5

4 .7

4 .0

4 .4

2-89

3 .1

2 .9

2 .7

2 .5

2 .5

3 .0

3 .3

5.1

4 .2

5.6

5.8

3.1

2 .4

5-89

3.1

2 .9

2 .7

2 .5

2 .5

5 .0

3 .2

5.1

4 .0

5.4

3.5

3 .0

2 .6

2 .8

4-89

3 .2

3 .0

2 .8

2 .7

2 .7

5.1

3.4

5 .2

4 .0

5.6

3 .7

3.4

3 .2

5 .6

4 .5

1-90

3 .3

3 .2

3 .0

2 .9

2 .9

5 .4

3 .6

5 .5

4 .2

5.9

4 .0

3 .8

3 .8

4 .2

5 .0

5 .5

2-90

3 .4

3 .5

3.1

5 .0

3 .1

5 .5

3 .7

5 .6

4 .5

4 .0

4.1

3 .9

4 .0

4 .3

4 .9

5 .1

4 .7

5-90

3 .4

5 .3

3.1

5.1

3.1

5 .5

3 .7

5 .6

4 .2

5.9

4 .0

3 .9

5 .9

4 .2

4 .6

4 .6

4 .2

3 .6

4-90

3 .5

3 .4

5 .2

5.1

3 .2

5 .5

3 .7

5 .6

4 .2

5.9

4 .0

3 .9

5 .9

4 .2

4 .4

4 .4

4.1

3 .8

3 .9

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4 -89

1-90

2-90

3-90




114.2
115.6
116.7

3.9

117.4
118.2
119.5
121.1
122.5
125.6
124.8

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS
MARCH 6 1991
♦

11

G R O S S N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER

IN IT IA L QUARTER
1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-86

5 .5
5 .7

5 .0

5 .0

6 .5

6 .6

5 .5

6 .6

6 .9

8 .5

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

9.1

2-87

1-88

4 .2

1-87

4-87

5 .7

4-86

5-87

1.5

5-86

2-87

BILLIO N S OF
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

7 .5

4 .1 9 4 .7
4*255.5
4»297.5
4 ,5 9 1 .6
4*471.6

5-87

5 .8

6 .8

7 .0

8 .0

7 .4

7 .4

4-87

6 .2

7.1

7 .4

8 .2

7 .8

8 .0

8 .7

1-88

6 .4

7 .2

7 .4

8 .1

7 .8

8 .0

8 .5

7.8

2-88

6 .6

7 .3

7 .6

8 .1

7.9

8 .0

8 .5

8 .1

8 .5

5-88

6 .7

7 .5

7 .5

8 .0

7 .8

7.9

8 .0

7 .8

7.8

7.4

4»551.7
4*647.6
4*755.8
4 ,8 5 1 .4
4*917.9

4-88

6 .8

7 .4

7 .5

8 .0

7 .8

7.9

8 .0

7 .8

7.8

7 .5

7 .7

1-89

6 .9

7 .4

7 .5

7 .9

7 .8

7.8

7.9

7 .7

7.7

7 .5

7 .6

7 .5

2-89

6 .8

7 .2

7 .4

7 .7

7 .6

7.6

7.6

7.4

7.5

7.1

7 .0

6 .7

5 .8

5-89

6 .7

7.1

7 .2

7 .5

7 .5

7.5

7.5

7.1

7.0

6 .7

6 .5

6.1

5 .5

5 .1

4-89

6 .5

6 .8

6 .9

7 .2

7 .0

6 .9

6.9

6 .7

6.5

6 .2

6 .0

5 .6

4 .9

4 .5

5.9

1-90

6 .5

6 .8

6 .9

7.1

7 .0

6.9

6.9

6.7

6.5

6 .5

6.1

5 .8

5 .4

5 .2

5 .5

6 .7

2-90

6 .4

6 .7

6 .8

7 .0

6 .8

6 .8

6.7

6 .5

6.4

6.1

6 .0

5 .7

5 .5

5 .2

5 .2

5 .9

5 .1

5-90

6 .5

6 .6

6 .7

6 .9

6 .7

6 .7

6.6

6 .4

6.5

6.1

5 .9

5 .6

5 .5

5 .2

5 .5

5 .7

5 .2

5 .5

4-90

6 .1

6 .5

6 .4

6 .5

6 .5

6.2

6.2

5 .9

5.8

5 .5

5 .5

5 .0

4 .7

4 .5

4 .4

4 .5

5 .8

5.1

0 .9

1-86

2-86

5-86

4—
86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

5*009.8
5 ,1 0 1 .5
5*174.0
5*238.6
5*289.5
5*575.4
5*445.5
5*514.6
5 ,5 2 7 .5

INITIAL Q ARTER
U

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BAN O ST. LOUIS
K F
M R H 27» 1991
AC

GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER
1-86
2-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

INITIAL QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88

- 1 .8

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

5 ,7 0 4 .6

5-86

- 0 .5

0 .8

4-86

0 .4

1.6

2 .5

1-87

1.6

2 .8

5 .7

5 .2

2-87

2 .1

5.1

5 .9

4 .7

4 .2

5-87

2 .5

5 .5

5 .9

4 .5

4 .2

4.1

4-87

3 .0

5 .9

4 .5

5 .0

4 .9

5 .5

6.6

1-88

3 .5

4 .0

4 .6

5 .0

5 .0

5 .5

5 .9

5 .1

2-88

5 .5

4 .0

4 .4

4 .8

4 .7

4 .9

5.1

4.4

5.6

5 ,7 1 2 .4
5 ,7 5 5 .6
5 ,7 8 1 .2
5 ,8 2 0 .5
5 ,8 5 8 .9
5 ,9 2 0 .7
5 ,9 7 0 .2
4 ,0 0 5 .8

3-88

5 .5

3 .8

4 .2

4 .5

4 .4

4 .4

4 .5

5.8

5.1

2 .7

4-88

5 .2

3 .7

4 .1

4 .5

4.1

4 .1

4.1

5.5

5.0

2 .7

2 .7

4 ,0 5 2 .1

1-89

5 .2

3 .7

4 .0

4 .2

4.1

4 .1

4.1

5 .6

5 .2

5.0

5 .2

5 .6

2-89

5.1

3 .5

5.8

5 .9

3.8

5 .8

3 .7

5 .2

2 .9

2 .7

2 .7

2 .6

1.6

3-89

5 .0

3 .4

5 .6

5 .7

3.6

5 .5

3.4

5 .0

2 .7

2 .5

2 .4

2 .3

1 .7

1.7

4-89

2 .8

3 .2

5 .4

5 .4

3 .5

5 .2

3.1

2 .7

2 .5

2.1

2 .0

1.8

1.2

1.0

4*059.5
4*095.7
4*112.2
4*129.7
0 .5

4*155.2
4*150.6

1-90

2 .8

5.1

5 .2

5 .5

5.2

5.1

5 .0

2 .6

2 .2

2 .0

1.9

1.8

1.5

1.2

1.0

1.7

2-90

2 .6

2 .9

5 .0

5.1

2 .9

2 .8

2 .7

2 .5

2 .0

1.8

1.7

1.6

1.2

1.0

0 .8

1.1

0 .4

3-90

2 .6

2 .8

2 .9

5 .0

2 .8

2 .7

2 .6

2 .5

2 .0

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.2

l.l

1.0

1.2

0 .9

1.4

4-90

2 .5

2 .6

2 .7

2 .7

2 .5

2 .4

2 .5

1.9

1 .7

1.5

1.5

1.2

0 .8

0 .7

0 .5

0 .5

0.1

- 0 .1

- 1 .6

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

5-90




4*155.1
4*170.0
4 ,1 5 5 .4

INITIAL Q ARTER
U

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS
MARCH 27» 1991

12

GROSS N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T
RATIO SCALE
T R I L L I O N S OF

QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES
RATIO SCALE
DOLLARS
SEASONALLY ADJUSTED
T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S
6 . 0

5.8
5 .6
5.4
5.2
5 .0
4 .8
4 .6
4.4
4.2
5 .0
4.8
4.6
4.4
4.2
4.0
3.8
3.6
3.4
3.2
3 .0

2 . 8

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988
SO URC E:

PERC EN TAG ES

ARE

LATEST

PLOTTED:

DATA




ANNUAL

RATES

4TH

OF

CHAN6E

FO R

PERIO D S

1989
U .S .

1990
D EPA RTM EN T

1991
OF

CO M M ERCE

IN D ICATED .

Q U A RTER

PR EPA R ED

13

BY

F E D E R A L

R E S E R V E

BA N K

OF

S T .

L O U I S

G E N E R A L
R A T I O

P R I C E

I N D E X *

S C A L E

R A T IO

S C A L E

1 9 8 2 -1 0 0

1 9 8 2 -1 0 0

1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
«AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS
SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED» 4TH QUARTER
PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS

IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GROSS N AT IO N A L PRODUCT
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QU
ARTER
1-86

INITIAL Q
UARTER
2-86

5-86

4 -86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-86

4*0
5 .2

5 .4

5 .5

3 .4

2 .6

2-87

5 .5

5 .4

2 .8

5 .5

5 .5

5 .4

5 .0

5 .4

3 .5

5.1

5.1

2 .7

3 .0

2 .8

2 .6

5 .0

5 .0

2 .7

2 .9

2 .8

2 .6

2 .2

5 .2

5 .2

5 .0

3 .2

5.1

5.1

2 .9

5.6

1-90

2-90

5-90

2 .7

2-88

4-89

1.7

1-88

5-89

5 .5

4-87

2-89

3.1

5-87

1-89

1 .8

1-87

1982 * 100
4-88

5 .0

4-86

5-88

2 .9

5-86

2-88

4 .4

115.2
114.6
115.1
5 .5

116.1
117.0
118.0
118.5
119.5
120.6

5 .5

5 .4

5 .2

3 .4

5.4

5 .4

5.4

4 .0

4 .6

4 .7

5 .5

5 .5

5 .5

3 .5

5 .5

5 .6

5.6

4.1

4 .6

4 .7

4 .7

1-89

5 .5

5 .6

5 .4

3 .6

5 .6

5 .7

5 .7

4 .1

4.4

4 .4

4 .5

5 .9

2-89

5 .5

5 .6

5.4

3 .6

5 .6

5 .7

5 .7

4 .1

4 .5

4 .5

4 .2

5 .9

5 .9

5-89

5 .5

5 .6

5 .4

3 .6

5 .6

5 .6

5.7

5 .9

4 .1

4 .1

5 .9

5 .7

5 .6

5 .2

4-89

5 .5

5 .6

5 .5

3 .6

5 .6

5.7

5 .7

5 .9

4 .1

4 .0

5 .9

5 .7

5 .7

5 .5

5 .8

1-90

5 .6

5 .7

5 .6

3 .7

5 .7

5.8

5 .8

4 .0

4 .2

4 .2

4 .1

5 .9

5 .9

5 .9

4 .5

4 .8

2-90

5 .7

5 .7

5 .6

3 .8

5 .8

5 .8

5.9

4 .1

4 .2

4 .2

4 .2

4 .1

4 .1

4 .1

4 .4

4 .7

4 .7

5-90

5 .7

5 .7

5 .6

3 .8

5 .8

5 .8

5.9

4.1

4 .2

4 .2

4 .1

4 .0

4 .0

4 .0

4 .5

4 .4

4 .2

5 .7

5 .6

5 .7

5 .6

3 .7

5 .7

5 .8

5.8

5 .9

4.1

4 .0

5 .9

5 .9

5.8

5 .8

4 .0

4 .0

5 .7

5 .2

2 .8

1-86

2-86

5-86

4 -8 6

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

o
I

5-88
4-88




122.0
125.4
124.6
125.8
126.8
128.0
129.5
151.0
152.2
155.1

INITIAL Q ARTER
U

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS
MARCH 27, 1991

14

P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T IO N E X P E N D IT U R E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

INITIAL QU TER
AR
ANNUAL RATES
2-88 5-88 4-88
1-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

BILLIO N S OF
DOLLARS
1-90

2-90

5-90
2 ,7 6 1 .0

2-86

4 .0

5-86

6.8

9 .8

4-86

6.6

7 .9

6 .2

1-87

6.8

7.7

6 .7

7 .5

2-87

7 .5

8 .2

7.7

8 .4

9 .6

5-87

7 .6

8 .5

8 .0

8 .6

9.5

8 .9

4-87

7 .0

7 .5

7.1

7 .5

7 .4

6 .2

5.7

1-88

7 .5

7 .8

7 .5

7 .7

7 .8

7 .2

6 .4

9 .2

2-88

7 .5

7 .7

7.4

7 .7

7 .7

7 .5

6 .7

8 .5

7.4

5-88

7.4

7 .8

7 .5

7 .7

7 .8

7.5

7.1

8 .5

7.8

8 .2

4-88

7 .5

7 .8

7 .6

7 .8

7 .9

7.6

7 .5

8 .2

7.9

8 .2

8 .1

1-89

7.2

7.5

7.5

7 .4

7 .5

7 .2

6 .9

7 .5

7.1

7.0

6.4

4 .8

2-89

7 .2

7 .5

7 .5

7 .4

7 .4

7.1

6 .8

7 .4

7 .0

6.9

6.5

5 .7

6.6

5-89

7 .2

7 .4

7 .2

7 .5

7 .5

7.1

6 .9

7 .5

7 .0

6.9

6 .6

6.1

6 .8

7 .0

4-89

7 .0

7 .2

7 .0

7 .0

7 .0

6 .8

6 .5

6 .9

6 .6

6.4

6.1

5 .6

5 .8

5 .5

4 .0

1-90

7 .0

7 .2

7.1

7.1

7.1

6 .9

6 .7

7 .0

6 .8

6.7

6 .4

6.1

6 .4

6 .4

6 .0

8 .2

2-90

6 .8

7 .0

6 .8

6 .9

6 .9

6 .6

6 .4

6 .7

6 .4

6.5

6.1

5 .7

5 .9

5 .7

5 .5

6 .0

5 .9

5-90

6 .9

7.1

6 .9

7 .0

6 .9

6 .7

6 .6

6 .8

6 .6

6.5

6 .5

6 .0

6 .5

6 .2

6 .0

6 .7

6 .0

8 .0

4-90

6 .7

6 .9

6 .7

6 .7

6 .7

6 .5

6 .5

6 .6

6 .5

6.2

6.0

5 .7

5 .9

5 .7

5 .5

5 .9

5 .1

5 .7

5 .5

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

I
o

TERM
INAL
Q ARTER
U
1-86

2-90

3-90

2 ,8 2 6 .0
2 ,8 6 8 .5
2 ,9 1 9 .5
2 ,9 8 7 .2
5 ,0 5 1 .6
5 ,0 7 9 .1
5 ,1 4 7 .7
5 ,2 0 4 .3
3 ,2 6 8 .2
3 ,5 3 2 .6
3 ,5 7 1 .7
5 ,4 2 5 .9
5 ,4 8 4 .5
5 ,5 1 8 .5
5 ,5 8 8 .1
5 ,6 2 2 .7
5 ,6 9 3 .4
5 ,7 2 4 .9

INITIAL QU TER
AR

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BAN OF ST. LOUIS
K
M R H 27, 1991
AC

PERSONAL C O N SU M P T IO N EXPENDITURES IN 1982 DOLLARS
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERM
INAL
Q ARTER
U
1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

2-86

4 .5
5 .7

5.8

5 .0

2 .7

1.4

5 .5

5 .2

2 .5

2 .6

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

0 .7

2-87

4-87

2 .2

1-87

5-87

5 .4

4—
86

2-87

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS

5 .6

5-86

1-87

INITIAL QU TER
AR
ANNUAL RATES
1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88

2 ,4 5 2 .4
2 ,4 6 4 .4
2 ,4 7 7 .8
2 ,4 8 2 .2
4 .5

2 ,5 0 9 .9

5-87

5 .4

5 .4

2 .9

5 .2

4 .4

4 .5

4-87

2 .9

2 .8

2 .5

2 .5

2 .8

1.9

- 0 .4

1-88

3 .4

5 .4

5 .0

5 .2

5 .8

5 .6

5 .2

2-88

3 .5

5 .5

5 .0

5.1

5 .6

5 .4

5 .0

4 .8

2 .7

5-88

5 .5

5.5

5 .0

5.2

5 .6

5 .4

5.1

4 .5

5.1

3.5

4-88

5 .5

5 .5

5.1

5 .2

5 .6

5 .4

5 .2

4 .1

5.2

3.5

5.5

1-89

5 .0

5.0

2 .7

2 .8

5.1

2 .9

2 .6

5 .2

2 .5

2 .2

1.6

- 0 .3

2-89

2 .9

2 .8

2 .6

2 .7

2 .9

2 .7

2 .4

2 .9

2 .1

2 .0

1.5

0 .5

1.5

5-89

5 .0

5.0

2 .8

2 .8

5 .0

2 .9

2 .7

5.1

2 .5

2 .5

2 .5

1.8

2 .9

4..6

4-89

2 .8

2 .7

2 .5

2 .5

2 .7

2 .5

2 .5

2 .6

2 .0

1.9

1.6

1.2

1.7

1,►
9

- 0 .8

1-90

2 .7

2 .6

2 .4

2 .4

2 .6

2 .4

2 .2

2 .5

1.9

1.8

1.5

1.2

1.5

1,.6

0.1

1.1

2-90

2 .5

2 .4

2 .2

2 .5

2 .4

2 .2

2 .0

2 .2

1.7

1.6

1.4

1.0

1.5

1 .5

0 .2

0 .7

0 .2

5-90

2 .5

2 .5

2 .5

2 .5

2 .4

2 .2

2 .1

2 .5

1.8

1.7

1.5

1.5

1.5

1 .6

0 .8

1.5

1.5

2 .7

4-90

2 .2

2.1

1.9

1.9

2 .0

1.8

1 .6

1.8

1.4

1.2

1.0

0 .7

0 .8

0,.7

- 0 .1

0.1

- 0 .2

- 0 .4

- 5 .4

1-86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2 -89

5-89

4-89

2-90

5-90

2 ,5 5 4 .2
6 .9

2 ,5 7 6 .8
2 ,5 9 4 .1
2 ,6 1 6 .4
2 ,6 5 8 .8
2 ,6 5 6 .7
2 ,6 4 5 .5
2 ,6 7 5 .5
2 .6 6 9 .9
2 .6 7 7 .5

0
1




2 ,5 5 6 .6

2 .6 7 8 .8
2 .6 9 6 .8
2 .6 7 5 .6

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS
MARCH 27, 1991

15

G R O S S P R IV A T E D O M E S T IC IN V E S T M E N T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERM
INAL
Q ARTER
U
1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

2-86

-1 0 .3
- 6 .8

-2 .5

1-87

-1 .0

4 .0

9 .2

0 .7

4 .9

8 .7

12.9

4-87

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

18.3

2-87

3-87

- 5 .7

4-86

2-87

BILLIO N S OF
DOLLARS

-1 4 .7

3-86

1-87

INITIAL QUARTER
AN
NUAL RATES
1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88

657.2
647.7
0 .7

648.8
676.7
7 .8

689.5

3-87

0 .7

4 .0

6 .6

8 .7

4 .2

0 .6

4-87

4 .7

8 .4

11.4

14.3

12.9

15.6

32.8

1-88

3 .3

6 .1

8 .2

9 .8

7 .8

7.7

11.5

- 6 .4

2-88

3 .9

6 .5

8 .4

9 .8

8 .1

8 .2

10.8

1.2

9.5

3—
88

4 .6

7 .0

8 .7

9 .9

8 .6

8 .7

10.9

4 .4

10.2

10.9

4-88

3 .3

5 .3

6 .6

7 .3

5 .9

5 .5

6 .5

0 .8

3.4

0.4

690.6
741.4
729.2
746.0
765.6
- 9 .1

747.5

1-89

4 .0

5 .9

7 .1

7 .9

6 .7

6 .5

7 .5

3 .0

5 .6

4 .3

1.1

12.4

2-89

4 .0

5 .7

6 .8

7 .5

6 .3

6.1

6 .9

3.1

5 .2

4 .1

1.9

8 .0

769.7
776.7

3 .7

3-89

3 .7

5 .2

6 .2

6 .7

5 .6

5 .4

6.0

2 .6

4 .2

3.2

1.3

5 .1

1.6

3 .0

4 .3

5 .2

5 .5

4 .4

4.1

4 .5

1.4

2 .6

1.5

- 0 .3

2 .0

- 1 .2

- 3 .6

775.8

- 0 .5

4-89

762.7

- 6 .6

1-90

2 .2

3 .5

4 .2

4 .4

3 .4

3 .0

3.2

0 .3

1.2

0.1

- 1 .6

0.0

- 2 .9

- 5 .0

- 7 .2

- 7 .9

2-90

2 .5

3 .7

4 .3

4 .6

3 .6

3 .3

3.5

0 .9

1.8

0.9

- 0 .5

1.0

- 1 .1

- 2 .3

- 2 .9

- 1 .0

6 .5

3-90

2 .4

3 .5

4 .1

4 .3

3 .4

3 .0

3 .2

0 .9

1.7

0.8

- 0 .4

0 .9

- 0 .9

- 1 .8

- 2 .1

—
0.5,

3 .4

4-90

0 .4

1.4

1 .8

1 .9

0 .8

0 .4

0.3

- 2 .0

- 1 .6

- 2 .6

- 4 .0

- 3 .3

- 5 .4

- 6 .8

- 8 .1

- 8 .4

- 8 .6 -1 5 .4 - 2 8 .6

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2 -8 8

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

747.2
759.0
0 .4

2-90

759.7
698.3

3-90

INITIAL QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BAN OF ST. LOUIS
K
M R H 27» 1991
AC

GROSS PRIVATE D O M ESTIC IN VESTM EN T IN 1982 DOLLARS
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER
1-86
2-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

INITIAL Q
UARTER
ANNUAL RATES
1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88

- 1 8 .5

1-89

2-89

3-89

BILLIONS O
F
DOLLARS
4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

642.3

3-86

- 1 4 .5

►
r
t
O
1

4-86

- 1 1 .8

- 8 .3

- 6 .2

625.1
615.2

1-87

-4 .6

0 .5

6 .4

20 .6

2 -87

-2 .0

2 .6

7 .3

14.8

644.7
9 .2

659.1

3-87

-1 .0

2 .9

6 .5

11.1

6 .6

4 .1

4 -87

2 .6

6 .6

10.3

14.9

13.0

14.9

26.9

1-88

1 .6

4 .9

7 .7

10.7

8 .3

8 .0

10.1

- 4 .6

2 -88

1 .9

4 .8

7.1

9 .5

7 .4

7 .0

8 .0

- 0 .4

665.7
706.6
698.4
3.9

705.1

3-88

2 .7

5 .4

7 .5

9 .7

7 .9

7 .7

8 .6

3 .1

7.2

4-88

1.1

3 .3

4 .9

6 .4

4 .5

3 .7

3 .6

- 1 .5

- 0 .4

1-89

2 .0

4 .1

5 .6

7 .0

5 .5

4 .9

5.1

1.2

2 .7

2 .3

- 1 .7

12.5

2-89

1 .9

3 .8

5 .2

6 .4

5 .0

4 .5

4 .5

1.2

2 .4

2 .0

- 0 .7

6 .7

1 .2

3-89

1 .9

3 .7

4 .9

6 .0

4 .7

4 .2

4 .2

1.3

2 .3

1.9

- 0 .1

5 .0

1.5

1.8

4-89

1 .3

2 .9

4 .0

4 .8

3 .5

3 .0

2 .8

0 .2

0 .9

0 .4

- 1 .5

1.9

- 1 .5

- 2 .8

- 7 .1

1-90

0 .9

2 .3

3 .3

4 .1

2 .8

2 .3

2.1

- 0 .4

0 .2

- 0 .4

- 2 .1

0 .5

- 2 .3

- 3 .4

- 5 .9

- 4 .7

2-90

0 .8

2 .2

3.1

3 .8

2 .6

2.1

1.9

- 0 .3

0.1

- 0 .3

- 1 .8

0.4

- 1 .8

- 2 .6

- 4 .0

- 2 .4

0 .0

3-90

0 .7

1.9

2 .8

3 .4

2 .3

1.7

1.5

- 0 .5

-0 .1

- 0 .5

- 1 .8

0.1

- 1 .9

- 2 .5

- 3 .5

- 2 .3

- 1 .1

- 2 .1

697.0

- 2 .2

- 2 .8

- 4 .2

- 2 .9

- 4 .9

- 5 .9

- 7 .4

- 7 .4

- 8 .4 -1 2 .3 - 2 1 .4

656.3

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

4-90

-0 .6

0 .5

1 .2

1.6

0 .5

- 0 .1

- 0 .4

- 2 .4

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87




10.5

723.0

- 2 .5 -1 4 .0

696.2
717.0
719.1
722.3
709.1
700.7
700.7

2-90

3-90

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS
MARCH 27» 1991

16

G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V IC E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QU
ARTER
1-86

2-86

2-86

7 .2
6.1

4 .6

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

5 .2

4-86

4-86

BILLIO N S OF
DOLLARS

9 .2

3-86

3-86

INITIAL Q AR
U TER
ANNUAL RATES
1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88

8 6 9 .3
8 8 0 .3
4 .0

8 8 8 .9

1-87

6 .4

5 .4

5 .6

7 .2

2-87

5 .6

4 .8

4 .6

5 .0

2 .8

904.5
910.7

3-87

6 .0

5 .4

5 .5

6 .0

5 .4

8 .1

4-87

6 .0

5 .5

5 .6

6 .0

5 .6

7 .0

5 .9

1-88

5 .2

4 .6

4 .5

4 .7

4 .0

4 .4

2 .7

2-88

5 .3

4 .8

4 .8

4 .9

4 .5

4 .9

3 .9

2 .9

3-88

4 .7

4 .2

4.1

4 .1

3 .6

3.8

2 .7

1.7

2 .8

- 0 .7

953.8

4-88

6.1

5 .8

5 .8

6.1

5 .9

6.4

6.1

6 .2

8 .5

9.6

20.8

1 ,0 0 0 .0

1-89

5 .9

5 .5

5 .6

5 .8

5 .6

6 .0

5 .7

5 .6

7 .2

7.5

11.8

3.4

2-89

5 .8

5 .6

5 .6

5 .8

5 .6

6 .0

5 .7

5 .6

6 .9

7.0

9 .7

4 .6

5 .8

3-89

5 .6

5*3

5 .3

5 .4

5 .2

5 .5

5 .2

5 .1

6.1

6.0

7 .8

3 .7

3.9

2 .0

4-89

5 .6

5 .4

5 .4

5 .5

5 .3

5 .6

5 .3

5 .2

6.1

6.0

7.4

4 .3

4 .6

4 .1

6 .2

1-90

5 .9

5 .7

5 .7

5 .9

5 .8

6 .0

5 .8

5 .8

6 .6

6.7

8 .0

5 .6

6.1

6 .2

8 .4

10.7

2-90

5 .9

5 .7

5 .8

5 .9

5 .8

6.1

5 .9

5 .9

6 .6

6.6

7.7

5 .7

6.1

6 .2

7 .7

8 .4

928.5
942.0
940.9

- 0 .5

955.4

6 .3

1►
008.5
1 ►022.7
1 >027.8
1.►043.3
1.►070.1
1.►086.4

6 .2

3-90

5 .9

5 .8

5 .8

5 .8

6.1

5 .9

5 .9

6 .6

6.6

7.5

5 .8

6.1

6 .2

7 .3

7.7

6 .2

6 .2

4-90

6 .2

6.1

6.1

6 .3

6 .2

6 .4

6 .3

6 .3

7 .0

7.1

7 .9

6 .4

6 .9

7.1

8 .1

8 .6

7 .9

8 .7

11.4

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

1
v
O
o

1.►102.8

5 .9

3-90

1,►132.9

INITIAL Q A TE
UR R

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
M R H 2 7. 1991
AC

GOVER NM EN T PURCHASES O F GO O D S AND SERVICES IN 1982 DOLLARS
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERM
INAL
QU
ARTER
1-86
2-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

INITIAL Q AR
U TER
ANNUAL RATES
1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88

9 .5

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

761.2

3-86

5 .8

2.1

4-86

5 .8

3 .9

5 .8

765.2
776.0

1-87

4 .2

2 .5

2 .8

- 0 .2

2-87

2 .7

1.1

0 .7

- 1 .7

- 3 .2

3-87

3 .2

2 .0

1.9

0 .7

1.1

5 .5

4-87

3.6

2 .6

2 .7

2 .0

2 .7

5 .7

6 .0

1-88

1.9

0 .8

0 .6

- 0 .4

- 0 .4

0 .5

- 1 .9

- 9 .2

2-88

2 .0

1.1

1.0

0 .2

0.3

1.2

- 0 .2

- 3 .2

3 .3

3-88

1.4

0 .6

0.4

- 0 .4

- 0 .4

0.2

- 1 .1

- 3 .4

- 0 .3

- 3 .8

4-88

2 .7

2 .0

2 .0

1.5

1.8

2 .6

2 .1

1.1

4 .8

5 .5

1-89

2 .2

1.5

1.4

1.0

1.1

1.7

1.1

0 .2

2 .7

2 .5

5 .8

- 3 .3

2-89

2 .3

1.7

1.7

1.3

1.4

2 .0

1.5

0 .8

3 .0

2 .9

5 .2

0 .3

4 .0

775.7
769.5
779.8
791.3
772.4
778.7
771.2
15.7

799.9
793.2
8 0 1 .0

3-89

2 .0

1.4

1.3

0 .9

1.0

1.5

1.0

0 .4

2 .0

1.8

3 .2

- 0 .6

0.8

- 2 .4

4-89

2 .0

1.5

1.5

1.1

1.2

1.7

1.3

0 .7

2 .2

2 .0

3.2

0 .3

1.5

0 .3

796.2
3 .0

8 0 2 .2

1-90

2 .1

1.6

1.6

1.2

1.4

1.8

1.4

0 .9

2 .3

2.1

3.1

0 .8

1.9

1 .2

3 .0

2 .9

2-90

2 .3

1.9

1.9

1.6

1.7

2 .1

1.9

1.4

2 .7

2 .6

3.6

1.7

2 .7

2 .4

4 .0

4 .5

6 .2

3-90

2 .3

1.8

1.8

1.6

1.7

2 .1

1.8

1.4

2 .6

2 .5

3.3

1.6

2 .5

2 .2

3 .3

3 .4

3 .7

1 .2

4-90

2 .4

2 .0

2 .0

1.8

1.9

2 .3

2 .0

1.7

2 .8

2 .7

3.4

2 .0

2 .8

2 .6

3 .6

3 .8

4 .0

3 .0

4 .7

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2 -89

3-89

4 -89

1-90

2 -9 0

3-90




8 0 7 .9
8 2 0 .2
8 2 2 .7
8 3 2 .3

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LO UIS
MARCH 27, 1991

17

D IS P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L IN C O M E IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S
(Compounded A nnual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QU
ARTER
1-86

2 -86

5-86

4 -8 6

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

INITIAL QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88

2-86

4 .4

4-86

4 .7

5 .8

6 .1

6 .0

7 .8

4 .5

4 .0

4 .5

4 .1

5 .6

5 .4

6 .2

6 .5

4 .6

6 .5

6 .5

7 .5

7 .8

7 .0

11.6

6 .9

6 .9

7 .7

8 .2

7 .6

10.9

10.7

6 .9

7 .0

7 .6

8 .0

7.6

10.0

9 .6

8 .5

7 .4

5—
88

7 .2

7 .5

7 .9

8 .5

7 .9

10.0

9 .6

8 .9

8 .6

9 .7

4-88

7 .2

7 .2

7 .8

8 .1

7.8

9.4

9.1

8 .4

8 .0

8 .5

6 .9

7 .4

7 .4

9.1

8 .6

8 .4

8 .7

8 .2

5-90

9 .6

2-88

2 -90

11.9

1-88

1-90

11.4

4-87

4-89

- 1 .8

5-87

5-89

10.4

2-87

2-89

5 .5

1-87

1-89

6.S

5-86

BILLIO N S OF
DOLLARS

9 .6

1-89

5*006.5
2 .4

5 .0 2 4 .5
5*065.4
5*159.8
5*125.7
5*211.1
5*502.5
5*578.6
5*439.4
5*520.1
5*578.9
5*661.7

8 .0

8 .5

8 .0

9 .5

7.5

8 .8

8 .4

7 .8

7.5

7 .5

6 .8

6 .7

5 .9

7 .5

8 .5

8 .0

7.4

7.1

7 .0

6 .5

6 .2

4 .5

5 .1

7.5

6.9

6 .9

6 .5

6 .2

5 .1

5 .6

6.1

6 .9

7 .9

5 .6 9 7 .5

2-89

7.1

7.1

7 .6

7 .8

5-89

6 .9

7 .0

7 .4

7 .6

4-89

6 .9

6 .9

7 .5

7 .4

7 .2

8 .1

7.8

1-90

7 .1

7.1

7 .4

7 .6

7 .4

8 .5

7 .9

7 .5

7.5

7.5

6 .8

6 .8

6 .2

2-90

6 .9

6 .9

7 .2

7 .5

7.1

7 .9

7.6

7 .2

6 .9

6 .8

6 .4

6 .4

5 .7

6.2

6 .5

6.7

4 .0

5-90

6 .7

6 .8

7 .0

7 .2

6 .9

7.6

7.5

6 .9

6.7

6 .6

6 .2

6.1

5 .5

5 .8

6.0

6 .0

4 .2

4 .5

4-90

6 .6

6 .6

6 .8

6 .9

6 .7

7.5

7.0

6 .6

6.4

6.2

5 .9

5 .7

5 .2

5 .4

5 .5

5 .5

5.9

5 .9

5 .5

1-86

2-86

5-86

4 -8 6

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

5-90

5*745.4
5 .7 9 9 .6
9 .6

5 .8 8 7 .7
5*925.7
5*969.1
4*001.9

INITIAL Q ARTER
U

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BAN OF ST. LOUIS
K
M R H 27» 1991
AC

DISPOSABLE PERSONAL IN C O M E IN 1982 DOLLARS
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERMINAL
QUARTER
1-86
2 -86

2-86

5-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

INITIAL QUARTER
ANNUAL RATES
1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88

6 .2

BILLIONS OF
DOLLARS
1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

5-90

2-90

2*648.6

5-86

2 .2

-1 .7

4-86

1 .9

-0 .2

1.4

2*637.5

1-87

2 .5

1.1

2 .5

5 .6

2-87

0 .5

- 0 .8

-0 .6

-1 .5

- 6 .5

5-87

1 .5

0 .6

1.2

1 .2

0 .0

6 .7

4-87

2 .4

1.7

2 .4

2 .7

2 .4

7.1

7 .5

1-88

5 .0

2 .5

5 .2

5 .6

5 .6

7.1

7 .4

7 .5

2-88

2 .9

2 .5

5 .2

5 .5

5 .4

6 .0

5 .8

5 .0

2 .7

5-88

5.1

2 .8

5 .4

5 .7

5.7

5 .8

5 .6

4 .9

5 .8

4 .9

4-88

5 .0

2 .7

5 .2

5 .5

5 .5

5 .2

4 .9

4 .5

5 .5

5 .6

2 .5

1-89

5.1

2 .9

5 .5

5 .6

5 .6

5 .1

4 .8

4 .5

5 .5

5 .8

5 .5

4 .2

2-89

2 .8

2 .5

2 .9

5 .1

5 .0

4 .5

5.9

5 .5

2 .6

2 .5

1.7

1.5

- 1 .2

2*646.2
2*669.5
2*626.5
2*669.2
2*717.9
2*765.9
2*784.4
2*818.0
2*855.9
2*865.5
2*854.9

5-89

2 .8

2 .5

2 .9

5 .1

5.0

4.1

5 .8

5 .2

2 .6

2 .6

2 .0

1.9

0 .8

2 .7

4-89

2 .7

2 .5

2 .8

2 .9

2 .8

5 .8

5.5

5 .0

2 .4

2 .4

1 .8

1 .7

0 .9

2 .0

1.2

1-90

2 .7

2 .5

2 .8

2 .9

2 .8

5.7

5 .4

2 .9

2 .4

2 .4

2 .0

1 .9

1.5

2 .2

1.9

2-90

2 .5

2 .5

2 .6

2 .7

2 .6

5 .4

5.1

2 .7

2 .2

2 .1

1 .7

1.6

1.1

1.7

1.5

1.4

0 .5

5-90

2 .4

2 .1

2 .4

2 .5

2 .4

5.1

2 .8

2 .4

1.9

1.8

1.4

1.5

0 .8

1 .2

0 .8

0 .7

- 0 .2

- 0 .7

4-90

2 .0

1 .8

2 .0

2 .1

2 .0

2 .6

2 .5

1.9

1.4

1.5

0 .9

0 .7

0 .2

0 .4

- 0 .1

- 0 .4

- 1 .5

- 2 .1

- 5 .5

1-86

2 -86

5-86

4 -86

1-87

2-87

5-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

5-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

5-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

5-90




2*874.5
2*885.2
2*900.9

2 .5

2*902.8
2*898.0
2*872.4

IN IT IA L QUARTER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS
MARCH 27. 1991

18

CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES
(Compounded Annual Rates of Change)
TERM
INAL
Q AR
U TER
1-86

BILLIONS O
F
DOLLARS
ANNUAL RATES

INITIAL Q A TE
UR R
2-86

3-86

4-86

2-86
3-86

5 .4
9 .7

18.4

1-87

19.4

29.3

35.3

23.0

31.6

36.4

46.2

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4-89

1-90

2-90

3-90

54.0

2-87

2-87

18.0

4—
86

1-87

- 5 .9

111.2
115.9
18.8

121.0
134.8
38.7

146.3

3-87

23.5

30.4

33.7

39.1

32.2

26.0

4-87

2 1.0

2 6.2

2 7.9

30.2

23.2

16.0

6 .9

1-88

2 3.3

28.1

29 .9

32.2

27.3

23.7

22.6

155.0
157.6
171.6

40 .6

2-88

22.7

26.8

28.2

29.8

25.4

22.3

21.1

28 .9

18.1

3-88

2 1.2

2 4 .6

2 5.5

26.5

22.4

19.3

17.7

21 .6

13.1

8 .3

4-88

20.6

23 .7

24.3

2 5.0

2 1.3

18.7

17.2

20 .0

13.8

11.7

15.3

1-89

18.3

20 .7

21.0

2 1.3

17.7

15.0

13.2

14.5

8 .8

5.9

4 .7

2-89

14.2

16.1

15.9

15.6

12.0

9 .0

6 .8

6 .7

1.0

- 2 .9

178.9
182.5
189.1
- 5 .0

186.7

- 6 .3 -1 5 .5 - 2 4 .9

173.8
163.6

3-89

11.2

12.6

12.2

11.6

8 .1

5 .1

2 .7

2 .2

- 3 .1

-6 .9 -1 0 .4 -1 7 .6 -2 3 .2 -2 1 .5

4-89

10.9

12.2

11.8

11.2

7 .9

5 .3

3 .2

2 .7

- 1 .8

-4 .8

- 7 .2 -1 2 .1 -1 4 .3

- 8 .4

6 .8

1-90

10.3

11.5

11.0

10.4

7.4

5 .0

3.1

2 .6

- 1 .3

- 3 .8

- 5 .7

- 9 .4 -1 0 .5

- 5 .1

4 .3

1 .9

2-90

9 .5

10.6

10.1

9.5

6.6

4 .3

2 .5

2 .1

- 1 .4

-3 .6

- 5 .2

- 8 .3

- 8 .9

- 4 .4

2 .0

- 0 .2

-2 .4

3-90

10.8

11.9

11.5

11.1

8 .5

6.5

5 .0

4 .8

1.8

0.1

- 0 .9

- 3 .0

- 2 .6

2 .6

9 .7

10.6

15.3

36.1

4-90

10.5

11.4

11.1

10.6

8 .2

6 .3

4 .9

4 .7

2 .0

0.5

- 0 .3

- 2 .1

- 1 .7

2 .8

8 .5

8 .9

11.3

18.9

3 .8

1-86

2-86

3-86

4-86

1-87

2-87

3-87

4-87

1-88

2-88

3-88

4-88

1-89

2-89

3-89

4 -89

1-90

2-90

3-90

166.3
167.1
166.1
179.4
181.1

INITIAL Q AR
U TER

PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE B K OF ST. LOUIS
AN
M R H 2 7 . 1991
AC

H IST O R I C A L SOURCES OF
NA T I O N A L INCOME A N D PRODUCT ACCOUNTS D A T A

Estimates for the series in the regular q u a r t e r l y p r e s e n t a t i o n
of N I P A tables for 1987-90:11 are published in the J u l y 1990 Surv e y of
Current B u s i n e s s . Data for 1983, 1984, 1985 and 1986 are p u b l i s h e d in
the J u l y 1986, J u l y 1987, J u l y 1988 and July 1989 Surv e y o f Current
B u s i n e s s , respectively.
Estimates for NIP A series for 1929-82 are
p u b l i s h e d in The National Income and Product A c c ounts of the U n i t e d
_
States. 1929-82:_ Statistical T a b l e s .
For further information and prices, write to the N a t i o n a l Income
and W e a l t h D i v i s i o n (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S.
Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230.




19

INVENTORIES COMPARED WITH MONTHLY
MANUF ACT URI NG AND TRADE

SALES

SEASONALLY ADJUSTED

72

72

1 .6 8

68

.6 4

64

60

60

56

56

52

52

48

48

44

44

40

40

36

36
1977

1978

1979

1980

1981

1982 1983

1984

1985

1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991
SOURCE: U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE
«BEGINNING IN 1982, INVENTORY DATA REFLECT CHANGES IN ESTIMATION PROCEDURES.
SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BUSINESS RECESSIONS.
LATEST DATA PLOTTED: JANUARY PRELIMINARY




PREPARED

20

BY

FEDERAL

R ESERVE

BANK

OF

ST.

LOUIS


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102