Full text of National Economic Trends : April 1991
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
N a t io n a l E c o n o m ic T r e n d s April 1991 T h e fa ilu r e o f th e G r a m m - R u d m a n - H o llin g s O m n ib u s B u d g e t R e c o n c ilia t io n lim its on d is c r e tio n a r y to re d u c e th e d e fic it. A c t o f 1990. s p e n d in g and p ro ce d u re s T h e new a pay-as-you-go R e c e n t d e f ic it p r o je c tio n s by to la w le s s e n fe d e ra l b u d g e t d e fic it w o e s e s ta b lis h e s s o m e in n o v a tiv e r e q u ir e m e n t fo r m a n y th e p ro g ra m s. C o n g r e s s io n a l B u d g e t O f f ic e le d b u d g e ta ry T h e C o n g r e s s to p a s s th e r u le s , p u rp o se (C B O ), in c lu d in g d o lla r o f th e le g is la t io n h o w e ve r, show is th a t n o p r o g r e s s is e x p e c t e d i n t h e n e a r t e r m . I n s t e a d , t h e d e f i c i t w i l l p r o b a b l y b a l l o o n o v e r t h e n e x t o n e o r t w o y e a r s b e f o r e t r e n d in g lo w e r in T h e th e 1993. ta b le a c tu a l b u d g e ta ry b e lo w d e fic it c lu d in g as a C B O h o w e ve r, c o d ifie s re ce n t h e a v y B y v ie w . a ll T h e m e a su re s, C B O w as s p e n d in g fo r s ta n d a r d iz e d h o w e ve r, Bu d g et fo r unchanged s p e n d in g s p e n d in g and p r o je c tio n s p e rce n t o f G N P w i ll r e m a in b u d g e t a s s u m in g a lte r n a tiv e d e fic it. o f M an ag em en t show s p o lic ie s b u d g e t la w , b a s e lin e O f fic e 6 .3 and lim its lim its now d e p o s it fo re c a s ts , se v e ra l m e a su re s p e rce n t th a t a re P r o je c t io n s o f b e lo w , o f th e d e fic it as 1983. le s s p r o v id e s in s u r a n c e d e fic it in show n T h e or w ill th e be th a n a new th e s u r p lu s h ig h e r p r o je c te d in th e b e fo re B u d g e t fo r it b a s e lin e is D e fic it w ill S e c u r ity e s t im a t e 1990 B a s e lin e B a s e lin e , a s s u m in g s p e n d in g lim it s (a n o f th e T he assum es w ith F ro m th is o f th e p r o v id e s on th e ex an th e lo w e r . a s a P e rc e n t 1991 o f G N P ye a rs 1992 1993 4 .1 % 5.3 % 5 .0 % 3.7 % 4 .1 5 .3 4 .7 3 .4 3 .0 3 .5 3 .1 2.6 — E x c lu d in g o ff- b u d g e t ite m s 5 .1 6 .4 5 .9 4 .6 3 .8 4 .1 3 .7 2.6 V ie w s new m ea su re , r e c e s s io n d e p o s it in s u r a n c e e m p lo y m e n t d e fic it T he T h e re fo re , o ff- b u d g e t ite m ) e ffe c t fo r th a t c u r r e n t in f la t io n . — E x c lu d in g — S t a n d a r d iz e d r e c e n t h ig h a d ju s t m e n t s . p r o je c tio n s . F is c a l D e fic it m e a s u re c o n c lu s io n s . m e a su re in c r e a s e in f la t io n a r y d e fic it S o c ia l C B O s im ila r a p e rce n t o f G N P . s p e n d in g s ta n d a rd re m o ve s F e d e ra l th e suggest tr a d itio n a l th a t c u r r e n t d is c r e tio n a r y e m p lo y m e n t d e fic it th e not — Ja m e s T H E F E D E R A L R E S E R IE B A N K o f S E I / H I S e x p r e s s e d d o n o t n e c e s s a r i ly r e f l e c t o f f ic ia l p o s i t io n s o f t h e F e d e ra l R e s e r v e S y s t e m . B . B u lla r d T O T A L C IV IL IA N E M P L O Y M E N T (Compounded A nnual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 7-89 THOUSANDS OF PERSONS INITIAL 1MONTH 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 8-89 1.6 9-89 0 .0 - 1 .5 10-89 0 .7 0 .3 2.1 11-89 1.3 1.2 2 .6 3.1 12-89 1.1 1.0 1.9 1 .7 0 .4 1-90 0 .9 0 .8 1.4 1.1 0.1 - 0 .1 2-90 1.0 0.9 1.3 1.2 0 .5 0 .6 1-90 2-90 3-90 5-90 4-90 6-90 7-90 8 -9 0 9—90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 117,565 117,417 117,619 117,920 117,957 117,945 118,074 1.3 5-90 1.1 1.0 1.4 1.3 0 .8 0 .9 1.5 1.6 4-90 0 .8 0 .7 1.0 0 .8 0 .3 0 .3 0.5 0.1 - 1 .5 5-90 0 .9 0 .8 1.1 1.0 0 .6 0 .7 0 .8 0.7 0 .2 6-90 0 .8 0 .7 0 .9 0.8 0 .5 0 .5 0.6 0.4 0 .0 0.7 - 0 .4 7-90 0 .4 0 .3 0 .5 0.3 0 .0 - 0 .1 -0 .1 - 0 .4 - 0 .9 - 0 .7 - 2 .0 - 3 .5 8-90 0 .2 0 .1 0 .3 0.1 -0 .3 -0 .3 -0 .4 -0 .6 - 1 .1 - 1 .0 - 2 .0 - 2 .7 118,235 118,090 118,277 1.9 118,237 117,882 117,690 - 1 .9 9-90 0 .3 0.2 0 .4 0 .2 0 .0 - 0 .1 -0 .1 -0 .3 - 0 .6 - 0 .4 - 1 .0 - 1 .2 0 .0 2 .0 10-90 0.2 0.1 0 .2 0.1 - 0 .2 - 0 .2 - 0 .2 - 0 .4 - 0 .7 - 0 .6 -1 .1 - 1 .3 - 0 .5 0 .2 - 1 .5 11-90 0 .0 - 0 .1 0 .0 - 0 .2 - 0 .5 - 0 .5 - 0 .6 - 0 .8 - 1 .1 - 1 .0 - 1 .5 - 1 .7 - 1 .3 - 1 .0 - 2 .5 - 3 .5 12-90 0.1 0 .0 0.1 0 .0 - 0 .3 - 0 .3 - 0 .3 - 0 .5 - 0 .7 - 0 .7 - 1 .0 - 1 .1 - 0 .6 - 0 .3 - 1 .0 - 0 .8 117,883 117,733 117,386 117,574 1.9 1-91 - 0 .3 - 0 .4 - 0 .3 - 0 .5 - 0 .7 - 0 .8 - 0 .9 - 1 .1 - 1 .3 - 1 .3 - 1 .7 - 1 .9 - 1 .6 - 1 .6 - 2 .4 - 2 .7 - 2 .3 - 6 .5 2-91 - 0 .3 - 0 .4 - 0 .3 - 0 .4 - 0 .7 - 0 .8 - 0 .8 - 1 .0 - 1 .2 - 1 .2 - 1 .5 - 1 .7 - 1 .4 - 1 .3 - 2 .0 - 2 .1 - 1 .6 - 3 .3 0 .0 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8 -90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 116,922 116,918 INITIAL MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 8» 1991 PAYROLL EM PLO YM EN T (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 8-89 1.5 9-89 2.1 2 .7 10-89 1.8 2 .0 1.2 1-90 2-90 INITIAL MONTH OF PERSONS 4-90 5-90 3-90 THOUSANDS 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 108,628 108,868 108,980 11-89 2 .1 2 .3 2.1 3 .0 12-89 2 .0 2.1 1.9 2 .2 109,245 1.5 109,383 1-90 2 .2 2 .3 2 .2 2 .5 2 .3 3 .0 2-90 2 .3 2 .5 2 .4 2 .7 2 .6 3.2 3 .4 3-90 2 .3 2 .4 2 .3 2 .5 2 .4 2 .7 2 .6 1.8 4-90 2 .1 2.1 2 .1 2 .2 2 .1 2 .2 1.9 1.2 0 .6 5-90 2 .4 2 .4 2 .4 2 .6 2 .5 2 .7 2 .7 2 .4 2 .7 4 .9 6-90 2 .4 2 .4 2 .4 2 .6 2 .5 2 .7 2 .6 2 .4 2 .6 3 .6 2 .3 7-90 2 .1 2 .1 2 .1 2 .2 2 .1 2.1 2 .0 1.7 1.7 2 .1 0 .7 -1 .0 8-90 1.8 1.8 1.7 1 .8 1 .7 1.7 1.5 1.2 1.1 1.2 0 .0 - 1 .2 - 1 .4 9-90 1.7 1.7 1.6 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.3 1.0 0 .9 1.0 0 .0 - 0 .8 - 0 .7 0 .0 10-90 1.4 1.4 1.3 1.5 1.2 1.2 0.9 0 .6 0 .5 0 .5 - 0 .4 - 1 .1 - 1 .1 - 1 .0 - 1 .9 11-90 1.2 1.1 1.0 1 .0 0 .8 0 .8 0 .6 0 .3 0 .1 0 .0 - 0 .8 - 1 .4 - 1 .5 -1 .6 - 2 .4 - 2 .9 12-90 1.0 0 .9 0 .8 0 .8 0 .6 0 .6 0.3 0.1 -0 .1 - 0 .2 - 0 .9 - 1 .5 - 1 .6 - 1 .6 - 2 .2 - 2 .3 - 1 .7 1-91 0 .8 0.7 0 .6 0 .6 0 .4 0 .3 0.1 - 0 .2 - 0 .4 - 0 .5 -1 .1 - 1 .6 - 1 .7 - 1 .8 - 2 .3 - 2 .4 - 2 .1 - 2 .5 2-91 0 .6 0.6 0 .5 0 .4 0 .3 0 .2 - 0 .1 -0 .3 - 0 .5 - 0 .6 - 1 .2 - 1 .7 - 1 .8 - 1 .8 - 2 .2 -2 .3 - 2 .1 - 2 .3 -2 .0 7-89 8 -8 9 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8 -90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 109,654 109,958 110,122 110,177 110,617 110,829 110,740 110.613 110,612 110.432 110.165 110.004 109.771P 109.587P IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS MARCH 8* 1991 2 EMPLOYMENT R A T IO S C A L E 1983 R A T IO 1984 1985 1986 1987 S C A L E 1988 1989 1990 1991 SOURCEt U.S.DEPARTMENT OF LABOR BEGINNING JANUARY 1986. TOTAL EMPLOYMENT DATA INCORPORATE NEW PROCEDURES FOR ESTIMATING MEASURES OF IMMIGRATION AND EMIGRATION INCREASING TOTAL EMPLOYMENT BY ABOUT 0.3 7.. PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED* FEBRUARY PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOJIS UN E M P L O Y M E N T RATE PERCENT SEASONALLY A D JU S T E D PERCENT I 1 .0 10. 10.0 9. 9 .0 8. 8.0 7. 7 .0 6. 6 .0 5 . 5 .0 4. 4 .0 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENT OF CIVILIAN LABOR FORCE LATEST DATA PLOTTED» FEBRUARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS C O N S U M E R P R IC E IN D E X F O R A L L U R B A N C O N S U M E R S (Compounded A nnual Rates of Change) 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 2-90 3-90 5-90 1982-84«100 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 ? o 8-89 * I vO o IN IT IA L MONTH 7-89 1 V© o TERMINAL MONTH 11-90 12-90 1-91 124.6 8-89 1.0 9-89 1.9 2 .9 10-89 2 .9 3.9 4 .9 11-89 3 .4 4 .2 4 .9 4 .9 12-89 5.7 4 .4 4 .9 4 .9 4 .9 124.9 125.4 125.9 126.4 127.6 1-90 5 .0 5 .9 6 .6 7.2 8 .4 12.0 2-90 5.1 5 .9 6 .5 6 .8 7 .5 8 .9 5 .8 5-90 5 .1 5 .7 6 .2 6.4 6 .8 7 .5 5 .3 4 .8 4-90 4 .8 5 .3 5 .7 5 .8 6 .0 6 .3 4 .5 3 .8 128.2 128.7 129.0 2 .8 129.2 5-90 4 .5 5 .0 5 .2 5 .3 5 .3 5 .4 3 .8 3 .2 2 .4 1.9 6-90 4 .8 5 .2 5 .5 5 .6 5 .6 5 .8 4 .6 4 .3 4 .1 4 .7 7 .7 7-90 4 .8 5 .2 5 .4 5 .5 5 .5 5 .6 4 .6 4 .4 4 .3 4 .7 6 .2 8-90 5 .3 5 .6 5 .9 6 .0 6.1 6.2 5 .4 5 .4 5 .5 6 .2 7.6 7.6 10.6 9-90 5 .6 5 .9 6.2 6 .3 6 .4 6.6 5 .9 6 .0 6 .2 6.8 8 .1 8 .2 10.1 9 .5 10-90 5 .7 6 .0 6.3 6.4 6 .5 6 .7 6.1 6.1 6 .3 6 .9 8 .0 8 .1 9.2 8 .5 11-90 5 .6 5 .9 6.1 6 .2 6 .3 6 .4 5 .9 5 .9 6 .0 6.5 7.2 7 .2 7.8 6 .9 5 .6 3 .7 12-90 5 .4 5 .7 5 .9 6 .0 6.1 6 .2 5 .7 5 .6 5 .7 6.1 6.7 6 .6 6.9 6 .0 4 .9 3 .7 3 .6 1-91 5 .4 5 .7 5 .9 6 .0 6 .0 6.1 5 .6 5 .6 5 .7 6 .0 6 .6 6 .4 6 .7 5 .9 5 .1 4 .3 4 .6 5 .5 2-91 5 .3 5 .5 5 .7 5 .7 5 .8 5 .9 5 .4 5 .4 5 .4 5 .7 6.1 5 .9 6.1 5 .4 4 .6 3.9 3.9 4 .1 2 .7 7-89 8 -89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8 -90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 130.0 4 .7 130.5 131.6 132.6 133.4 7 .5 133.8 134.2 134.8 135.1 INITIAL MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 19, 1991 PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FINISHED G O O D S (Compounded AnnuaJ Rates of Change) INITIAL MONTH 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 8-89 - 3 .1 9-89 1 .6 6 .5 10-89 3 .6 7.1 7 .6 11-89 2 .7 4 .7 3 .7 0 .0 12-89 3 .6 5 .4 5 .0 3 .7 7 .6 0 * 1 TERMINAL MONTH 7-89 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 1982 * 100 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 113.5 114.1 114.8 114.8 115.5 1-90 6 .6 8 .7 9.2 9.7 15.0 2 2.9 2-90 5 .5 7 .0 7.1 6 .9 9 .4 10.3 - 1 .0 117.5 117.4 3-90 4 .6 5 .8 5 .7 5 .3 6 .7 6.4 - 1 .0 - 1 .0 4-90 4 .0 4 .9 4 .7 4 .2 5 .1 4 .5 - 1 .0 - 1 .0 - 1 .0 5-90 4 .0 4 .8 4 .6 4 .2 4 .9 4 .4 0 .3 0 .7 1.5 4 .2 6-90 3 .6 4 .4 4 .1 3.7 4 .2 3 .7 0 .2 0 .5 1.0 2 .1 0 .0 7-90 3 .7 4 .3 4.1 3 .7 4 .2 3 .7 0 .9 1.2 1 .8 2 .8 2 .1 8-90 4 .5 5 .1 5 .0 4 .7 5 .3 5 .0 2 .6 3 .3 4 .1 5 .5 5 .9 9 .0 14.1 9-90 5 .2 5 .9 5 .9 5 .7 6 .3 6.2 4 .2 5 .0 6.1 7 .5 8 .4 11.3 15.1 16.2 10-90 5 .9 6 .6 6 .6 6 .5 7.1 7.1 5 .5 6 .3 7 .4 8 .9 9 .9 12.5 15.4 16.1 16.0 0 * 1 5 .9 6 .5 6 .5 6 .4 7 .0 6.9 5 .4 6 .2 7.1 8 .3 9 .0 10.9 12.7 12.3 10.4 5 .0 12-90 5 .1 5 .6 5 .6 5 .4 5 .9 5 .7 4 .3 4 .8 5 .5 6 .3 6 .6 7 .8 8 .5 7 .2 4 .4 - 1 .0 - 6 .6 1-91 4 .7 5 .2 5 .1 5 .0 5 .4 5 .2 3 .8 4 .3 4 .8 5 .5 5 .7 6 .5 6 .9 5 .5 3 .0 - 1 .0 - 3 .8 - 1 .0 2-91 4 .1 4 .5 4 .4 4 .2 4 .5 4 .5 3 .0 3 .5 3 .7 4 .2 4 .2 4 .8 4 .8 3 .4 1.0 - 2 .4 - 4 .8 - 3 .9 7-89 8 -89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 117.3 117.2 117.6 117.6 4 .2 118.0 119.3 120.8 122.8 11-90 122.1 I * e ? * o 122.5 122.0 - 6 .7 121.5 1-91 IN IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 15. 1991 4 PRICES RATIO SCALE RATIO SCALE 1982-100 CONSUMER P R IC E S D A TA AR E ON A 19 * 2 - 6 4 -1 0 0 BASE C P I - U O A TA B E G IN N IN G 1983 IN C O R P O R A TE A R E N TA L E Q U IV A L E N C E M EASURE FOR H O M E O VN ER SH IP C O S T S . P E R C E N TA G E S ARE AN NUAL R A T E S OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S L A T E S T O A TA P L O T T E D : IN D IC A T E D . FE B R U A R Y PR EP A R E D BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BANK OF S T . RATIO SCALE PRODUCER P R I C E S P E R C E N TA G E S ARE AN NU AL R A T E S OF CHANGE FOR P E R IO D S L A T E S T D A TA P L O T T E D ; F E B R U A R Y L O U IS RATIO SCALE IN D IC A T E D . PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS P R O D U C E R P R IC E IN D E X , F IN IS H E D C O N S U M E R F O O D S (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH IN IT IA L MONTH 7-89 8 -8 9 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 8-89 4 .1 9-89 1.0 - 2 .0 10-89 5 .2 5 .7 14.0 11-89 5 .2 5 .5 9 .5 5 .1 12-89 6 .6 7 .2 10.5 8 .8 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 1982 « 6-90 7-90 8 -9 0 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 118.8 118.6 119.9 120.4 121.6 12.6 123.6 1-90 9 .0 10.0 13.2 12.9 17.0 2 1.6 2-90 9 .4 10.4 13.0 12.8 15.4 16.9 12.3 3-90 7.4 7 .9 9 .7 8 .8 9 .8 8 .8 2 .9 4-90 5 .7 5 .9 7 .0 5 .9 6.1 4 .5 - 0 .6 - 6 .5 - 7 .5 5-90 5 .6 5 .8 6 .8 5 .8 5 .9 4 .6 0 .7 - 2 .9 - 1 .4 6-90 4 .9 5 .0 5 .8 4 .8 4 .7 3 .5 0 .2 - 2 .6 - 1 .6 1.5 - 1 .9 7-90 5 .0 5 .1 5 .8 4 .9 4 .9 3 .8 1.1 - 1 .0 0 .2 2 .9 2 .0 124.8 124.2 - 5 .6 123.4 123.9 5 .0 123.7 124.3 6 .0 5 .1 5 .2 5 .9 5 .1 5 .1 4 .2 1.9 0 .3 1.6 3.9 3.6 6 .5 7 .0 9-90 4 .3 4 .3 4 .9 4 .1 4 .0 3.1 1.0 - 0 .5 0 .3 2 .0 1 .2 2 .3 0 .5 - 5 .6 10-90 4 .5 4 .5 5 .0 4 .3 4 .3 3 .5 1.6 0 .4 1.2 2 .8 2 .3 3 .4 2 .6 0.5 7.0 0 1 125.0 8-90 4 .4 4 .4 4 .9 4 .2 4 .2 3.4 1.8 0 .6 1.5 2 .8 2 .4 3.3 2 .7 1.3 4 .9 2 .9 3 .8 3 .8 4 .2 3 .5 3 .4 2 .6 1.1 0 .0 0 .6 1.7 1.2 1.8 1.0 - 0 .5 1.3 - 1 .4 - 5 .6 124.4 125.1 125.4 124.8 1-91 3 .4 3 .3 3 .6 3 .0 2 .8 2 .1 0 .6 - 0 .3 0 .2 1.1 0.6 1.0 0 .2 - 1 .1 0 .0 - 2 .2 - 4 .7 - 3 .8 2-91 3 .3 3 .3 3 .6 3 .0 2 .8 2 .2 0 .8 -0 .1 0 .4 1.3 0.9 1.2 0 .6 - 0 .5 0 .6 - 1 .0 - 2 .2 - 0 .5 2 .9 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1 * o 12-90 1 00 1-91 124.4 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8 -90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 124.7 INITIAL MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST, LOUIS MARCH 15» 1991 PRODUCER PRICE INDEX, FINISHED G O O D S, EXCLUDING FO O D S (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) - 6 .2 9-89 1.6 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 4-90 5-90 1982 * 100 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 111.7 112.6 10-89 2 .9 7 .8 5 .5 11-89 1.6 4 .4 1.6 12-89 2 .4 4 .6 2 .9 1.6 5 .4 5 .6 8 .1 7 .6 8 .4 14.0 23.3 2-90 4 .2 6 .0 5 .2 5.1 7 .7 8 .8 - 4 .1 3-90 3.5 5 .0 4 .1 3.9 5 .4 5 .4 -2 .6 -1 .0 o 3-90 10.1 1 © 8-89 INITIAL MONTH 8 -89 ? o TERMINAL MONTH 7-89 113.1 - 2 .1 112.9 113.4 115.4 115.0 114.9 4-90 3 .3 4 .6 3 .8 3 .6 4 .7 4 .6 - 1 .0 0 .5 2 .1 5-90 3 .4 4 .6 3 .9 3 .7 4 .7 4 .5 0.3 1.8 3 .2 4 .3 6-90 3 .2 4 .2 3 .6 3 .3 4 .1 3 .9 0 .4 1.6 2 .5 2 .6 1.0 7-90 3 .2 4 .1 3 .5 3 .3 4 .0 3 .8 0 .9 1.9 2 .6 2 .8 2 .1 3 .2 8-90 4 .3 5 .2 4 .8 4 .7 5 .5 5 .5 3.1 4 .4 5 .5 6 .4 7.1 10.3 17.9 9-90 5 .5 6 .5 6 .2 6 .3 7.2 7.4 5 .5 7 .0 8 .3 9 .6 11.0 14.6 20 .7 23 .7 115.1 115.5 115.6 115.9 117.5 119.6 10-90 6.4 7 .4 7 .2 7.3 8 .2 8 .5 7 .0 8 .5 9 .9 11.2 12.7 15.8 20 .4 21 .6 19.6 11-90 6 .4 7 .3 7.1 7.2 8 .1 8 .3 6 .9 8 .2 9.4 10.5 11.6 13.8 16.6 16.2 12.7 6.1 12-90 5 .5 6 .3 6.1 6.1 6 .8 6 .9 5 .5 6 .5 7 .4 8 .1 8 .6 9.9 11.3 9 .7 5 .5 - 1 .0 - 7 .6 1-91 5 .2 5 .9 5 .7 5 .7 6 .3 6 .3 5 .0 5 .9 6 .6 7.1 7 .5 8 .4 9 .4 7 .7 4 .1 - 0 .7 - 3 .9 0 .0 2-91 4 .4 5 .0 4 .7 4 .7 5.1 5.1 3 .8 4 .5 5 .0 5 .3 5 .5 6.0 6.4 4 .6 1.2 - 2 .9 - 5 .8 - 4 .8 - 9 .5 7-89 8 -89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8 -90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 121.4 122.0 121.2 121.2 120.2 I N IT IA L MONTH PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF S T . LOUIS MARCH 1 5 , 1991 6 I N D U S T R I A L P R O D U C T I O N R A T I O SCALE R A T I O S C A LE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1987-100 1987*100 20 1 15 1 10 105 100 95 90 85 80 75 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST OATA PLOTTED» FEBRUARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 7-89 INITIAL MONTH 8 -89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 8 -89 4*5 9-89 2 .2 0 .0 10-89 - 0 .4 - 2 .7 - 5 .4 11-89 0 .8 - 0 .4 - 0 .6 4 .5 12-89 1 .8 1.1 1.5 5 .1 1-90 - 0 .6 - 1 .5 - 1 .9 - 0 .7 2-90 1.1 0 .6 0 .7 2 .2 1.5 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 1987 « 100 6-90 7-90 8 -9 0 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 108.2 108.2 107.7 108.1 5 .7 108.6 - 3 .3 - 1 1 .5 107.5 - 0 .6 11.8 108.5 3-90 1.5 1.1 1.3 2 .7 2 .2 1.1 8 .1 4 .5 4-90 1.2 0 .8 1 .0 2 .1 1.6 0 .6 4 .9 1.7 - 1 .1 5-90 1.8 1 .5 1.7 2 .7 2 .4 1.8 5 .4 3 .4 2 .8 6 .8 6-90 2 .3 2 .1 2 .3 3 .4 3 .2 2 .8 5 .9 4 .5 4 .5 7.4 8 .0 7-90 2 .4 2 .2 2 .4 3 .4 3 .2 2 .9 5 .5 4 .3 4 .2 6 .0 5 .6 3 .3 8-90 2 .3 2 .1 2 .3 3 .1 3 .0 2 .* 4 .8 3 .7 3 .6 4 .8 4 .1 2 .2 1.1 9-90 2 .2 2 .0 2 .2 2 .9 2 .8 2 .5 4 .4 3 .3 3.1 4 .0 3 .3 1 .8 1.1 1.1 10-90 1.6 1.3 1.4 2 .0 1.8 1.4 3 .0 1 .9 1.6 2 .0 1.1 - 0 .5 - 1 .8 - 3 .2 - 7 .3 109.9 11-90 0 .3 0.1 0 .1 0 .5 0 .2 - 0 .3 0 .9 - 0 .2 - 0 .8 - 0 .8 - 2 .0 - 3 .9 - 5 .6 - 7 . 7 - 1 1 .8 -1 6 .1 108.3 108.9 108.8 109.4 110.1 110.4 110.5 110.6 12-90 - 0 .4 - 0 .7 - 0 .7 - 0 .4 - 0 .8 - 1 .3 - 0 .3 - 1 .4 - 2 .1 - 2 .2 - 3 .4 - 5 .2 - 6 .8 - 8 .7 -1 1 .7 -1 3 .9 - 1 1 .5 1-91 - 0 .7 - 1 .0 - 1 .1 - 0 .8 - 1 .2 - 1 .7 - 0 .8 - 1 .9 - 2 .5 - 2 .7 - 3 .8 - 5 .4 - 6 .8 - 8 .3 -1 0 .5 -1 1 .5 - 9 .1 - 6 .5 2-91 - 1 .2 - 1 .5 - 1 .6 - 1 .4 - 1 .8 - 2 .3 - 1 .5 -2 .6 - 3 .2 - 3 .4 -4 .5 - 5 .9 - 7 .2 - 8 .5 - 1 0 .3 - 1 1 .0 - 9 .3 - 8 .1 - 9 .7 7-89 8 -8 9 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8 -9 0 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 107.2 10 6 .6P 10 5 .7P IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS MARCH 15» 1991 7 P E R S O N A L R A T IO I N C O M E MONTHLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES S C A L E TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED R A T IO S C A L E TRILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4. 4 .8 4. 4 .4 4. 4 .0 3. 3 .6 3. 3 .2 2. 2.8 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt FEBRUARY PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS PERSONAL IN C O M E (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) 8-89 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES INITIAL MONTH TERMINAL MONTH 7-89 8 -8 9 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 5-90 4-90 0.1 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 4»398.7 4 .4 1 1 .6 9-89 1.8 3 .6 10-89 3 .9 5 .9 8 .3 4»441.0 11-89 5 .0 6 .6 8 .2 8 .1 12-89 5 .5 6 .8 7 .9 7 .8 4 .4 7 0 .0 7.4 4»496.7 4*532.2 1-90 6 .2 7 .4 8 .4 8 .5 8 .6 9 .9 2-90 6 .5 7 .5 8 .4 8 .4 8 .5 9 .0 8 .1 4 ,5 6 1 .6 3-90 6 .8 7 .8 8 .5 8 .5 8 .6 9 .0 8 .6 9.1 4—90 6 .3 7.1 7 .6 7 .5 7 .4 7 .4 6 .5 5 .8 2 .6 4»594.7 5-90 6.1 6 .8 7.2 7.1 6 .9 6 .8 6 .0 5 .3 3 .5 4 .5 4 ,6 0 4 .5 4 ,6 2 1 .4 6-90 6 .0 6 .6 7.0 6 .8 6 .6 6 .5 5 .8 5 .3 4 .1 4 .8 5 .1 7-90 6 .0 6 .6 6 .9 6 .7 6 .5 6 .4 5 .8 5 .4 4 .5 5 .2 5 .5 5 .8 8-90 5 .8 6 .3 6 .5 6 .4 6 .2 6 .0 5 .5 5 .0 4 .2 4 .7 4 .7 4 .5 3 .2 4 ,6 4 0 .7 4 ,6 6 2 .7 4 »675.0 9-90 5 .8 6 .3 6 .5 6 .3 6.1 6 .0 5 .5 5 .2 4 .5 4 .9 5 .0 5 .0 4 .6 6 .0 10-90 5 .4 5 .8 5 .9 5 .7 5 .5 5 .3 4 .8 4 .4 3 .8 4 .0 3 .9 3 .6 2 .9 2 .7 - 0 .5 11-90 5 .4 5 .7 5 .9 5 .7 5 .5 5 .3 4 .9 4 .5 4 .0 4 .2 4 .1 3.9 3 .5 3 .6 2 .4 5 .3 12-90 5 .5 5 .8 6 .0 5 .8 5 .6 5 .5 5.1 4 .8 4 .3 4 .6 4 .6 4 .5 4 .2 4 .4 3 .9 6 .2 7.1 1-91 4 .9 5 .2 5 .3 5 .1 4 .9 4 .7 4 .2 3 .9 3 .4 3 .5 3 .4 3 .1 2 .7 2 .5 1.7 2 .4 1.0 - 4 .7 2-91 4 .8 5 .0 5 .1 4 .9 4 .7 4 .5 4 .1 3 .8 3 .4 3 .4 3 .3 3.1 2 .7 2 .6 2 .0 2 .6 1 .7 - 0 .9 3 .0 7-89 8 -8 9 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 4-90 5 -90 6-90 7-90 8 -90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 4»697.8 4 »695.9 4 ,7 1 6 .2 4 ,7 4 3 .3 4 »724.3 4»735.9P IN IT IA L MONTH PRELIMINARY PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS MARCH 28» 1991 8 RETAIL SALES* R A T IO R A T IO S C A L E B I L L I O N S 1983 OF SEASONALLY ADJUSTED D O LLA R S 1984 1985 1986 B I L L I O N S OF S C A L E D O LLA RS 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 SOURCE* U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTEDt JANUARY, FEBRUARY ADVANCE ESTIMATE «REVISED FROM 1988 PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS RETAIL SALES (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL MONTH 7—89 8-8 9 13.4 9-89 7.3 10-89 - 0 .2 8 -8 9 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 INITIAL MONTH DOLLARS 5-90 4-90 5-90 MILLIONS OF 6-90 7-90 8 -9 0 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 147,467 147,659 1.6 - 6 .3 -1 3 .6 145.877 2 .5 - 0 .9 - 2 .2 147,119 1.8 -1 .0 - 1 .8 4 .7 - 1 .0 6 .9 5 .7 6 .8 14.5 16.5 37.1 2 -90 5 .5 4 .3 4 .8 10.0 9 .7 15.5 - 2 .6 3-90 4 .4 3.1 3 .4 7 .2 6 .5 8 .8 - 5 .1 - 5 .5 4 -90 2 .6 1.4 1.4 4 .1 2 .8 3 .8 - 5 .4 - 6 .8 -1 0 .0 5 -90 2 .3 1.2 1.1 5 .4 2 .2 2 .9 - 4 .2 - 4 .7 - 5 .4 - 0 .5 6-90 3 .2 2 .2 2 .2 4 .4 5 .5 4 .5 - 1 .2 - 0 .9 0 .0 5 .4 11.8 7-90 3 .5 2 .4 2 .5 4 .5 5 .7 4 .4 - 0 .2 0 .5 1.2 5 .5 8 .3 4 .9 8 -9 0 5 .3 2 .5 2 .6 4 .5 3 .7 4 .5 0 .5 0 .7 1.6 4 .7 6 .5 4 .0 3.1 9-90 3 .9 3 .2 3 .5 5 .0 4 .4 5 .0 1.6 2 .2 5 .2 6.1 7 .8 6 .5 7 .2 11.5 10-90 3 .4 2 .7 2 .8 4 .5 3 .8 4 .5 1.1 1.6 2 .4 4 .6 5 .6 4 .1 3 .9 4 .5 - 2 .5 11-90 3 .5 2 .8 2 .9 4 .5 3 .8 4 .2 1.4 1 .9 2 .6 4 .5 5 .4 4 .2 4 .0 4 .2 0 .8 12-90 1.8 1 .2 1.1 2 .5 1.6 1.9 - 0 .8 - 0 .7 - 0 .5 0 .9 1.1 - 0 .5 - 1 .6 - 2 .7 - 7 .0 1-91 0 .8 0.1 0 .0 1 .0 0 .3 0 .4 - 2 .2 - 2 .1 - 2 .0 - 1 .1 - 1 .1 - 2 .8 - 4 .1 - 5 .5 - 9 .5 - 1 1 .5 - 1 8 .4 -1 5 .7 2-91 1.5 0 .6 0 .6 1 .5 1 .0 1.1 - 1 .5 - 1 .1 -0 .9 0 .0 0 .1 -1 .5 - 2 .1 - 5 .0 - 5 .6 - 5 .5 10.5 7-89 8-89 9-89 10-89 11-89 12-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4-90 5-90 6-90 7-90 8-90 9-90 10-90 11-90 12-90 1-91 11-89 12-89 1-90 10.7 146.997 150.914 150,579 150,156 148,823 148,759 150,143 150,745 151,135 152,512 152,191 152,711 4 .2 - 9 .2 - 2 0 .9 -6 .4 - 9 .7 149,750 147.635P 148,869E IN IT IA L MONTH P- PRELIMINARY E- ESTIMATED PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 13, 1991 H O U R L Y C O M P E N S A T IO N , B U S IN E S S S E C T O R (Compounded A nnual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-86 2-86 4 .5 3-86 4 .3 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 1982-100 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 118.0 119.2 4 .1 120.8 4-86 4 .7 4 .8 5 .5 1-87 4 .1 4 .0 3 .9 2 .3 2-87 3 .6 3.4 3.1 2 .0 1.7 3-87 3 .7 3 .5 3.4 2 .7 2 .8 4 .0 121.5 122.0 123.2 125.5 4-87 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 3 .9 4 .4 5 .8 7 .7 1-88 4 .0 4 .0 3.9 3.6 4 .0 4 .7 5 .1 2 .6 2-88 4 .2 4 .1 4 .1 3 .9 4 .2 4 .8 5 .1 3 .9 5 .2 126.3 127.9 129.7 3-88 4 .3 4 .3 4 .3 4.1 4 .5 5 .0 5 .3 4 .5 5 .5 5 .7 4-88 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4 .3 4 .8 4 .9 4 .2 4 .8 4 .6 3 .4 1-89 4.1 4 .1 4 .1 3 .9 4 .2 4 .5 4 .6 4 .0 4 .4 4 .1 3 .3 3.1 2-89 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 3 .8 4 .0 4 .3 4 .3 3 .8 4 .0 3 .8 3.1 2 .9 2 .8 130.8 131.8 132.7 3-89 3 .8 3 .8 3.7 3 .6 3 .7 3 .9 3 .9 3 .4 3 .6 3 .2 2 .6 2 .4 2 .0 1.2 4-89 3 .7 3 .7 3 .6 3 .5 3 .6 3 .8 3 .7 3 .3 3 .4 3.1 2 .5 2 .3 2 .0 1.7 133.1 133.8 2.1 135.3 1-90 3 .8 3 .7 3 .7 3 .5 3 .7 3 .8 3 .8 3 .4 3 .5 3 .3 2 .9 2 .7 2 .7 2 .6 3 .3 4 .6 2-90 3 .8 3 .8 3 .8 3 .7 3 .8 3.9 3 .9 3 .6 3 .7 3 .5 3 .2 3.1 3.1 3 .2 3 .9 4 .8 5 .1 3-90 3 .9 3 .9 3 .8 3 .7 3 .8 4 .0 4 .0 3 .7 3 .8 3 .6 3 .4 3 .4 3 .4 3 .5 4 .1 4 .8 4 .9 4 .8 4-90 3 .9 3 .8 3 .8 3.7 3 .8 4 .0 4 .0 3 .7 3 .8 3 .6 3 .4 3 .4 3 .4 3 .5 4 .0 4 .5 4 .5 4 .1 3 .5 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 137.0 138.6 139.8 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 6, 1991 O U T PU T PER H O U R O F ALL PERSONS, BUSINESS SECTOR (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) 2-86 INITIAL QUARTER 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 1982*100 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 o <r> » (M TERMINAL QUARTER 1-86 3-90 109.7 - 0 .7 109.1 3-86 - 1 .5 - 2 .2 4-86 - 0 .6 -0 .5 1.1 1-87 - 0 .4 - 0 .2 0 .7 2-87 0 .3 0 .5 1.5 1.7 3 .0 3-87 0 .7 1.0 1.8 2 .1 2 .9 2 .9 4-87 1.1 1.4 2 .1 2 .4 3 .1 3.1 109.4 0 .4 109.5 110.3 111.1 3 .3 112.0 1-88 1.5 1.8 2 .5 2 .8 3 .4 3 .5 3 .8 4 .4 2-88 1.2 1.4 2 .0 2 .1 2 .5 2 .4 2 .2 1 .6 - 1 .1 3-88 1.3 1.6 2 .0 2 .2 2 .5 2 .4 2 .3 1 .9 0 .7 2 .5 4-88 1.0 1.2 1.6 1.7 1.9 1.7 1.4 1 .0 - 0 .1 0 .4 - 1 .7 1-89 0 .9 1.1 1.4 1.4 1.6 1.4 1.1 0 .7 - 0 .2 0.1 -l-.l - 0 .4 2-89 0 .9 1.0 1 .3 1 .3 1.4 1.2 1.0 0 .6 - 0 .1 0.1 - 0 .7 - 0 .2 0 .0 3-89 0 .7 0 .8 1.1 1.1 1.1 0 .9 0 .7 0 .3 - 0 .4 - 0 .2 - 0 .9 - 0 .6 - 0 .7 - 1 .4 4-89 0 .5 0 .6 0 .8 0 .8 0 .8 0 .6 0 .3 0 .0 - 0 .7 - 0 .6 - 1 .2 - 1 .1 - 1 .3 - 1 .9 - 2 .5 1-90 0 .4 0 .5 0 .7 0 .6 0 .7 0 .5 0 .2 - 0 .1 -0 .7 - 0 .6 - 1 .1 - 1 .0 - 1 .2 - 1 .5 - 1 .6 - 0 .7 2-90 0 .4 0 .5 0 .7 0 .6 0 .7 0 .5 0 .3 0 .0 -0 .5 - 0 .4 - 0 .9 - 0 .7 - 0 .8 -1 .0 - 0 .8 0 .0 0 .7 3-90 0 .4 0 .5 0 .7 0 .7 0 .7 0 .5 0 .3 0 .0 - 0 .4 - 0 .3 - 0 .7 - 0 .5 - 0 .5 - 0 .6 - 0 .4 0 .2 0 .7 0 .7 4-90 0 .4 0 .5 0 .6 0 .6 0 .6 0 .5 0 .3 0 .0 - 0 .4 - 0 .3 -0 .6 - 0 .4 - 0 .5 -0 .5 - 0 .4 0 .2 0 .5 0.4 0 .0 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 113.2 112.9 113.6 113.1 113.0 113.0 112.6 111.9 111.7 111.9 112.1 112.1 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS MARCH 6. 1991 10 P R O D U C TIV ITY, R A T I O SCALE 1982-100 1983 C O M P E N S A T IO N , AND L A B O R C O S T S RATIO SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 SCALE 1982-100 1991 SOURCE« U.S. DEPARTMENT OF LABOR PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHAN6E FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED» 4TH QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS UN IT LABOR COSTS, BUSINESS SECTOR (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-86 INITIAL QUARTER 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 1982*100 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 107.6 2—86 5 .4 5-86 5 .7 6.1 4-86 5 .5 5 .3 4 .5 1-87 4 .5 4 .2 3 .5 2 .2 2-87 5 .5 2 .8 1.7 0.4 - 1 .4 5-87 2 .9 2 .4 1.6 0 .6 - 0 .2 1.1 4-87 5 .1 2 .8 2 .1 1.5 1 .5 2 .7 4 .4 1-88 2 .5 2 .1 1.4 0.8 0 .5 1.1 1.1 109.2 110.4 111.0 110.6 110.9 112.1 111.5 - 2 .1 113.5 2-88 2 .9 2 .6 2 .1 1.7 1.7 2 .4 2 .9 2 .2 6 .6 5-88 2 .9 2 .7 2 .5 2 .0 1 .9 2 .6 5 .0 2 .5 4 .9 5.2 4-88 5.1 2 .9 2 .6 2 .5 2 .5 3 .0 5 .4 3 .1 4 .9 4.1 5 .0 1-89 5 .2 3 .0 2 .7 2 .5 2 .5 3.1 5 .5 3 .5 4 .7 4 .0 4 .4 2-89 3 .1 2 .9 2 .7 2 .5 2 .5 3 .0 3 .3 5.1 4 .2 5.6 5.8 3.1 2 .4 5-89 3.1 2 .9 2 .7 2 .5 2 .5 5 .0 3 .2 5.1 4 .0 5.4 3.5 3 .0 2 .6 2 .8 4-89 3 .2 3 .0 2 .8 2 .7 2 .7 5.1 3.4 5 .2 4 .0 5.6 3 .7 3.4 3 .2 5 .6 4 .5 1-90 3 .3 3 .2 3 .0 2 .9 2 .9 5 .4 3 .6 5 .5 4 .2 5.9 4 .0 3 .8 3 .8 4 .2 5 .0 5 .5 2-90 3 .4 3 .5 3.1 5 .0 3 .1 5 .5 3 .7 5 .6 4 .5 4 .0 4.1 3 .9 4 .0 4 .3 4 .9 5 .1 4 .7 5-90 3 .4 5 .3 3.1 5.1 3.1 5 .5 3 .7 5 .6 4 .2 5.9 4 .0 3 .9 5 .9 4 .2 4 .6 4 .6 4 .2 3 .6 4-90 3 .5 3 .4 5 .2 5.1 3 .2 5 .5 3 .7 5 .6 4 .2 5.9 4 .0 3 .9 5 .9 4 .2 4 .4 4 .4 4.1 3 .8 3 .9 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4 -89 1-90 2-90 3-90 114.2 115.6 116.7 3.9 117.4 118.2 119.5 121.1 122.5 125.6 124.8 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS MARCH 6♦ 1991 11 G R O S S N A T IO N A L P R O D U C T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER IN IT IA L QUARTER 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-86 1.5 5-86 5 .5 5 .7 4-86 5 .7 5 .0 4 .2 1-87 5 .0 6 .5 6 .6 9.1 2-87 5 .5 6 .6 6 .9 8 .5 7 .5 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES 4 .1 9 4 .7 4*255.5 4»297.5 4 ,5 9 1 .6 4*471.6 5-87 5 .8 6 .8 7 .0 8 .0 7 .4 7 .4 4-87 6 .2 7.1 7 .4 8 .2 7 .8 8 .0 8 .7 1-88 6 .4 7 .2 7 .4 8 .1 7 .8 8 .0 8 .5 7.8 2-88 6 .6 7 .3 7 .6 8 .1 7.9 8 .0 8 .5 8 .1 8 .5 5-88 6 .7 7 .5 7 .5 8 .0 7 .8 7.9 8 .0 7 .8 7.8 7.4 4»551.7 4*647.6 4*755.8 4 ,8 5 1 .4 4*917.9 4-88 6 .8 7 .4 7 .5 8 .0 7 .8 7.9 8 .0 7 .8 7.8 7 .5 7 .7 1-89 6 .9 7 .4 7 .5 7 .9 7 .8 7.8 7.9 7 .7 7.7 7 .5 7 .6 7 .5 2-89 6 .8 7 .2 7 .4 7 .7 7 .6 7.6 7.6 7.4 7.5 7.1 7 .0 6 .7 5 .8 5-89 6 .7 7.1 7 .2 7 .5 7 .5 7.5 7.5 7.1 7.0 6 .7 6 .5 6.1 5 .5 5 .1 4-89 6 .5 6 .8 6 .9 7 .2 7 .0 6 .9 6.9 6 .7 6.5 6 .2 6 .0 5 .6 4 .9 4 .5 5.9 1-90 6 .5 6 .8 6 .9 7.1 7 .0 6.9 6.9 6.7 6.5 6 .5 6.1 5 .8 5 .4 5 .2 5 .5 6 .7 2-90 6 .4 6 .7 6 .8 7 .0 6 .8 6 .8 6.7 6 .5 6.4 6.1 6 .0 5 .7 5 .5 5 .2 5 .2 5 .9 5 .1 5-90 6 .5 6 .6 6 .7 6 .9 6 .7 6 .7 6.6 6 .4 6.5 6.1 5 .9 5 .6 5 .5 5 .2 5 .5 5 .7 5 .2 5 .5 4-90 6 .1 6 .5 6 .4 6 .5 6 .5 6.2 6.2 5 .9 5.8 5 .5 5 .5 5 .0 4 .7 4 .5 4 .4 4 .5 5 .8 5.1 0 .9 1-86 2-86 5-86 4—86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 5*009.8 5 ,1 0 1 .5 5*174.0 5*238.6 5*289.5 5*575.4 5*445.5 5*514.6 5 ,5 2 7 .5 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 27» 1991 GROSS NATIONAL PRODUCT IN 1982 DOLLARS (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-86 2-86 - 1 .8 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 5 ,7 0 4 .6 5-86 - 0 .5 0 .8 4-86 0 .4 1.6 2 .5 1-87 1.6 2 .8 5 .7 5 .2 2-87 2 .1 5.1 5 .9 4 .7 4 .2 5-87 2 .5 5 .5 5 .9 4 .5 4 .2 4.1 4-87 3 .0 5 .9 4 .5 5 .0 4 .9 5 .5 6.6 1-88 3 .5 4 .0 4 .6 5 .0 5 .0 5 .5 5 .9 5 .1 2-88 5 .5 4 .0 4 .4 4 .8 4 .7 4 .9 5.1 4.4 5.6 5 ,7 1 2 .4 5 ,7 5 5 .6 5 ,7 8 1 .2 5 ,8 2 0 .5 5 ,8 5 8 .9 5 ,9 2 0 .7 5 ,9 7 0 .2 4 ,0 0 5 .8 3-88 5 .5 3 .8 4 .2 4 .5 4 .4 4 .4 4 .5 5.8 5.1 2 .7 4-88 5 .2 3 .7 4 .1 4 .5 4.1 4 .1 4.1 5.5 5.0 2 .7 2 .7 4 ,0 5 2 .1 1-89 5 .2 3 .7 4 .0 4 .2 4.1 4 .1 4.1 5 .6 5 .2 5.0 5 .2 5 .6 2-89 5.1 3 .5 5.8 5 .9 3.8 5 .8 3 .7 5 .2 2 .9 2 .7 2 .7 2 .6 1.6 3-89 5 .0 3 .4 5 .6 5 .7 3.6 5 .5 3.4 5 .0 2 .7 2 .5 2 .4 2 .3 1 .7 1.7 4-89 2 .8 3 .2 5 .4 5 .4 3 .5 5 .2 3.1 2 .7 2 .5 2.1 2 .0 1.8 1.2 1.0 4*059.5 4*095.7 4*112.2 4*129.7 0 .5 4*155.2 4*150.6 1-90 2 .8 5.1 5 .2 5 .5 5.2 5.1 5 .0 2 .6 2 .2 2 .0 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.0 1.7 2-90 2 .6 2 .9 5 .0 5.1 2 .9 2 .8 2 .7 2 .5 2 .0 1.8 1.7 1.6 1.2 1.0 0 .8 1.1 0 .4 3-90 2 .6 2 .8 2 .9 5 .0 2 .8 2 .7 2 .6 2 .5 2 .0 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.2 l.l 1.0 1.2 0 .9 1.4 4-90 2 .5 2 .6 2 .7 2 .7 2 .5 2 .4 2 .5 1.9 1 .7 1.5 1.5 1.2 0 .8 0 .7 0 .5 0 .5 0.1 - 0 .1 - 1 .6 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 4*155.1 4*170.0 4 ,1 5 5 .4 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS MARCH 27» 1991 12 GROSS N A T I O N A L P R O D U C T RATIO SCALE T R I L L I O N S OF QUARTERLY TOTALS AT ANNUAL RATES RATIO SCALE DOLLARS SEASONALLY ADJUSTED T R I L L I O N S OF D O L L A R S 6 . 0 5.8 5 .6 5.4 5.2 5 .0 4 .8 4 .6 4.4 4.2 5 .0 4.8 4.6 4.4 4.2 4.0 3.8 3.6 3.4 3.2 3 .0 2 . 8 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 SO URC E: PERC EN TAG ES ARE LATEST PLOTTED: DATA ANNUAL RATES 4TH OF CHAN6E FO R PERIO D S 1989 U .S . 1990 D EPA RTM EN T 1991 OF CO M M ERCE IN D ICATED . Q U A RTER PR EPA R ED 13 BY F E D E R A L R E S E R V E BA N K OF S T . L O U I S G E N E R A L R A T I O P R I C E I N D E X * S C A L E R A T IO S C A L E 1 9 8 2 -1 0 0 1 9 8 2 -1 0 0 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 «AS USED IN NATIONAL INCOME ACCOUNTS SOURCEt U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE PERCENTAGES ARE ANNUAL RATES OF CHANGE FOR PERIODS INDICATED. LATEST DATA PLOTTED» 4TH QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS IMPLICIT PRICE DEFLATOR FOR GROSS N AT IO N A L PRODUCT (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-86 INITIAL QUARTER 2-86 5-86 4 -86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-86 2 .9 5-86 4*0 5 .0 4-86 5 .2 5 .4 1 .8 1-87 5 .5 3 .4 2 .6 2-87 5 .5 5 .4 2 .8 5 .5 3.1 5-87 5 .5 5 .4 5 .0 5 .4 3 .5 5 .5 4-87 5.1 5.1 2 .7 3 .0 2 .8 2 .6 1.7 1-88 5 .0 5 .0 2 .7 2 .9 2 .8 2 .6 2 .2 2 .7 2-88 5 .2 5 .2 5 .0 3 .2 5.1 5.1 2 .9 5.6 4 .4 2-88 5-88 1982 * 100 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 115.2 114.6 115.1 5 .5 116.1 117.0 118.0 118.5 119.5 120.6 5 .5 5 .4 5 .2 3 .4 5.4 5 .4 5.4 4 .0 4 .6 4 .7 5 .5 5 .5 5 .5 3 .5 5 .5 5 .6 5.6 4.1 4 .6 4 .7 4 .7 1-89 5 .5 5 .6 5 .4 3 .6 5 .6 5 .7 5 .7 4 .1 4.4 4 .4 4 .5 5 .9 2-89 5 .5 5 .6 5.4 3 .6 5 .6 5 .7 5 .7 4 .1 4 .5 4 .5 4 .2 5 .9 5 .9 5-89 5 .5 5 .6 5 .4 3 .6 5 .6 5 .6 5.7 5 .9 4 .1 4 .1 5 .9 5 .7 5 .6 5 .2 4-89 5 .5 5 .6 5 .5 3 .6 5 .6 5.7 5 .7 5 .9 4 .1 4 .0 5 .9 5 .7 5 .7 5 .5 5 .8 1-90 5 .6 5 .7 5 .6 3 .7 5 .7 5.8 5 .8 4 .0 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 5 .9 5 .9 5 .9 4 .5 4 .8 2-90 5 .7 5 .7 5 .6 3 .8 5 .8 5 .8 5.9 4 .1 4 .2 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4 .1 4 .1 4 .4 4 .7 4 .7 5-90 5 .7 5 .7 5 .6 3 .8 5 .8 5 .8 5.9 4.1 4 .2 4 .2 4 .1 4 .0 4 .0 4 .0 4 .5 4 .4 4 .2 5 .7 5 .6 5 .7 5 .6 3 .7 5 .7 5 .8 5.8 5 .9 4.1 4 .0 5 .9 5 .9 5.8 5 .8 4 .0 4 .0 5 .7 5 .2 2 .8 1-86 2-86 5-86 4 -8 6 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 o I 5-88 4-88 122.0 125.4 124.6 125.8 126.8 128.0 129.5 151.0 152.2 155.1 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS MARCH 27, 1991 14 P E R S O N A L C O N S U M P T IO N E X P E N D IT U R E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS 1-90 2-90 5-90 2 ,7 6 1 .0 2-86 4 .0 5-86 6.8 9 .8 4-86 6.6 7 .9 6 .2 1-87 6.8 7.7 6 .7 7 .5 2-87 7 .5 8 .2 7.7 8 .4 9 .6 5-87 7 .6 8 .5 8 .0 8 .6 9.5 8 .9 4-87 7 .0 7 .5 7.1 7 .5 7 .4 6 .2 5.7 1-88 7 .5 7 .8 7 .5 7 .7 7 .8 7 .2 6 .4 9 .2 2-88 7 .5 7 .7 7.4 7 .7 7 .7 7 .5 6 .7 8 .5 7.4 5-88 7.4 7 .8 7 .5 7 .7 7 .8 7.5 7.1 8 .5 7.8 8 .2 4-88 7 .5 7 .8 7 .6 7 .8 7 .9 7.6 7 .5 8 .2 7.9 8 .2 8 .1 1-89 7.2 7.5 7.5 7 .4 7 .5 7 .2 6 .9 7 .5 7.1 7.0 6.4 4 .8 2-89 7 .2 7 .5 7 .5 7 .4 7 .4 7.1 6 .8 7 .4 7 .0 6.9 6.5 5 .7 6.6 5-89 7 .2 7 .4 7 .2 7 .5 7 .5 7.1 6 .9 7 .5 7 .0 6.9 6 .6 6.1 6 .8 7 .0 4-89 7 .0 7 .2 7 .0 7 .0 7 .0 6 .8 6 .5 6 .9 6 .6 6.4 6.1 5 .6 5 .8 5 .5 4 .0 1-90 7 .0 7 .2 7.1 7.1 7.1 6 .9 6 .7 7 .0 6 .8 6.7 6 .4 6.1 6 .4 6 .4 6 .0 8 .2 2-90 6 .8 7 .0 6 .8 6 .9 6 .9 6 .6 6 .4 6 .7 6 .4 6.5 6.1 5 .7 5 .9 5 .7 5 .5 6 .0 5 .9 5-90 6 .9 7.1 6 .9 7 .0 6 .9 6 .7 6 .6 6 .8 6 .6 6.5 6 .5 6 .0 6 .5 6 .2 6 .0 6 .7 6 .0 8 .0 4-90 6 .7 6 .9 6 .7 6 .7 6 .7 6 .5 6 .5 6 .6 6 .5 6.2 6.0 5 .7 5 .9 5 .7 5 .5 5 .9 5 .1 5 .7 5 .5 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 I o TERMINAL QUARTER 1-86 2-90 3-90 2 ,8 2 6 .0 2 ,8 6 8 .5 2 ,9 1 9 .5 2 ,9 8 7 .2 5 ,0 5 1 .6 5 ,0 7 9 .1 5 ,1 4 7 .7 5 ,2 0 4 .3 3 ,2 6 8 .2 3 ,5 3 2 .6 3 ,5 7 1 .7 5 ,4 2 5 .9 5 ,4 8 4 .5 5 ,5 1 8 .5 5 ,5 8 8 .1 5 ,6 2 2 .7 5 ,6 9 3 .4 5 ,7 2 4 .9 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 27, 1991 PERSONAL C O N SU M P T IO N EXPENDITURES IN 1982 DOLLARS (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 2-86 5 .6 5-86 4 .5 5 .4 4—86 5 .7 5.8 2 .2 1-87 5 .0 2 .7 1.4 0 .7 2-87 5 .5 5 .2 2 .5 2 .6 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 2 ,4 5 2 .4 2 ,4 6 4 .4 2 ,4 7 7 .8 2 ,4 8 2 .2 4 .5 2 ,5 0 9 .9 5-87 5 .4 5 .4 2 .9 5 .2 4 .4 4 .5 4-87 2 .9 2 .8 2 .5 2 .5 2 .8 1.9 - 0 .4 1-88 3 .4 5 .4 5 .0 5 .2 5 .8 5 .6 5 .2 2-88 3 .5 5 .5 5 .0 5.1 5 .6 5 .4 5 .0 4 .8 2 .7 5-88 5 .5 5.5 5 .0 5.2 5 .6 5 .4 5.1 4 .5 5.1 3.5 4-88 5 .5 5 .5 5.1 5 .2 5 .6 5 .4 5 .2 4 .1 5.2 3.5 5.5 1-89 5 .0 5.0 2 .7 2 .8 5.1 2 .9 2 .6 5 .2 2 .5 2 .2 1.6 - 0 .3 2-89 2 .9 2 .8 2 .6 2 .7 2 .9 2 .7 2 .4 2 .9 2 .1 2 .0 1.5 0 .5 1.5 5-89 5 .0 5.0 2 .8 2 .8 5 .0 2 .9 2 .7 5.1 2 .5 2 .5 2 .5 1.8 2 .9 4..6 4-89 2 .8 2 .7 2 .5 2 .5 2 .7 2 .5 2 .5 2 .6 2 .0 1.9 1.6 1.2 1.7 1,► 9 - 0 .8 1-90 2 .7 2 .6 2 .4 2 .4 2 .6 2 .4 2 .2 2 .5 1.9 1.8 1.5 1.2 1.5 1,.6 0.1 1.1 2-90 2 .5 2 .4 2 .2 2 .5 2 .4 2 .2 2 .0 2 .2 1.7 1.6 1.4 1.0 1.5 1 .5 0 .2 0 .7 0 .2 5-90 2 .5 2 .5 2 .5 2 .5 2 .4 2 .2 2 .1 2 .5 1.8 1.7 1.5 1.5 1.5 1 .6 0 .8 1.5 1.5 2 .7 4-90 2 .2 2.1 1.9 1.9 2 .0 1.8 1 .6 1.8 1.4 1.2 1.0 0 .7 0 .8 0,.7 - 0 .1 0.1 - 0 .2 - 0 .4 - 5 .4 1-86 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2 -89 5-89 4-89 2-90 5-90 2 ,5 5 4 .2 6 .9 2 ,5 7 6 .8 2 ,5 9 4 .1 2 ,6 1 6 .4 2 ,6 5 8 .8 2 ,6 5 6 .7 2 ,6 4 5 .5 2 ,6 7 5 .5 2 .6 6 9 .9 2 .6 7 7 .5 0 1 2 ,5 5 6 .6 2 .6 7 8 .8 2 .6 9 6 .8 2 .6 7 5 .6 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS MARCH 27, 1991 15 G R O S S P R IV A T E D O M E S T IC IN V E S T M E N T IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 2-86 -1 4 .7 3-86 -1 0 .3 - 5 .7 4-86 - 6 .8 -2 .5 1-87 -1 .0 4 .0 9 .2 18.3 2-87 0 .7 4 .9 8 .7 12.9 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 657.2 647.7 0 .7 648.8 676.7 7 .8 689.5 3-87 0 .7 4 .0 6 .6 8 .7 4 .2 0 .6 4-87 4 .7 8 .4 11.4 14.3 12.9 15.6 32.8 1-88 3 .3 6 .1 8 .2 9 .8 7 .8 7.7 11.5 - 6 .4 2-88 3 .9 6 .5 8 .4 9 .8 8 .1 8 .2 10.8 1.2 9.5 3—88 4 .6 7 .0 8 .7 9 .9 8 .6 8 .7 10.9 4 .4 10.2 10.9 4-88 3 .3 5 .3 6 .6 7 .3 5 .9 5 .5 6 .5 0 .8 3.4 0.4 690.6 741.4 729.2 746.0 765.6 - 9 .1 747.5 1-89 4 .0 5 .9 7 .1 7 .9 6 .7 6 .5 7 .5 3 .0 5 .6 4 .3 1.1 12.4 2-89 4 .0 5 .7 6 .8 7 .5 6 .3 6.1 6 .9 3.1 5 .2 4 .1 1.9 8 .0 769.7 776.7 3 .7 3-89 3 .7 5 .2 6 .2 6 .7 5 .6 5 .4 6.0 2 .6 4 .2 3.2 1.3 5 .1 1.6 - 0 .5 4-89 3 .0 4 .3 5 .2 5 .5 4 .4 4.1 4 .5 1.4 2 .6 1.5 - 0 .3 2 .0 - 1 .2 - 3 .6 775.8 762.7 - 6 .6 1-90 2 .2 3 .5 4 .2 4 .4 3 .4 3 .0 3.2 0 .3 1.2 0.1 - 1 .6 0.0 - 2 .9 - 5 .0 - 7 .2 - 7 .9 2-90 2 .5 3 .7 4 .3 4 .6 3 .6 3 .3 3.5 0 .9 1.8 0.9 - 0 .5 1.0 - 1 .1 - 2 .3 - 2 .9 - 1 .0 6 .5 3-90 2 .4 3 .5 4 .1 4 .3 3 .4 3 .0 3 .2 0 .9 1.7 0.8 - 0 .4 0 .9 - 0 .9 - 1 .8 - 2 .1 —0.5, 3 .4 4-90 0 .4 1.4 1 .8 1 .9 0 .8 0 .4 0.3 - 2 .0 - 1 .6 - 2 .6 - 4 .0 - 3 .3 - 5 .4 - 6 .8 - 8 .1 - 8 .4 - 8 .6 -1 5 .4 - 2 8 .6 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2 -8 8 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 747.2 759.0 0 .4 2-90 759.7 698.3 3-90 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 27» 1991 GROSS PRIVATE D O M ESTIC IN VESTM EN T IN 1982 DOLLARS (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-86 2-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 - 1 8 .5 1-89 2-89 3-89 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 642.3 3-86 - 1 4 .5 ► rt O 1 4-86 - 1 1 .8 - 8 .3 - 6 .2 625.1 615.2 1-87 -4 .6 0 .5 6 .4 20 .6 2 -87 -2 .0 2 .6 7 .3 14.8 644.7 9 .2 659.1 3-87 -1 .0 2 .9 6 .5 11.1 6 .6 4 .1 4 -87 2 .6 6 .6 10.3 14.9 13.0 14.9 26.9 1-88 1 .6 4 .9 7 .7 10.7 8 .3 8 .0 10.1 - 4 .6 2 -88 1 .9 4 .8 7.1 9 .5 7 .4 7 .0 8 .0 - 0 .4 665.7 706.6 698.4 3.9 705.1 3-88 2 .7 5 .4 7 .5 9 .7 7 .9 7 .7 8 .6 3 .1 7.2 4-88 1.1 3 .3 4 .9 6 .4 4 .5 3 .7 3 .6 - 1 .5 - 0 .4 1-89 2 .0 4 .1 5 .6 7 .0 5 .5 4 .9 5.1 1.2 2 .7 2 .3 - 1 .7 12.5 2-89 1 .9 3 .8 5 .2 6 .4 5 .0 4 .5 4 .5 1.2 2 .4 2 .0 - 0 .7 6 .7 1 .2 3-89 1 .9 3 .7 4 .9 6 .0 4 .7 4 .2 4 .2 1.3 2 .3 1.9 - 0 .1 5 .0 1.5 1.8 4-89 1 .3 2 .9 4 .0 4 .8 3 .5 3 .0 2 .8 0 .2 0 .9 0 .4 - 1 .5 1.9 - 1 .5 - 2 .8 - 7 .1 1-90 0 .9 2 .3 3 .3 4 .1 2 .8 2 .3 2.1 - 0 .4 0 .2 - 0 .4 - 2 .1 0 .5 - 2 .3 - 3 .4 - 5 .9 - 4 .7 2-90 0 .8 2 .2 3.1 3 .8 2 .6 2.1 1.9 - 0 .3 0.1 - 0 .3 - 1 .8 0.4 - 1 .8 - 2 .6 - 4 .0 - 2 .4 0 .0 3-90 0 .7 1.9 2 .8 3 .4 2 .3 1.7 1.5 - 0 .5 -0 .1 - 0 .5 - 1 .8 0.1 - 1 .9 - 2 .5 - 3 .5 - 2 .3 - 1 .1 - 2 .1 697.0 - 2 .2 - 2 .8 - 4 .2 - 2 .9 - 4 .9 - 5 .9 - 7 .4 - 7 .4 - 8 .4 -1 2 .3 - 2 1 .4 656.3 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 4-90 -0 .6 0 .5 1 .2 1.6 0 .5 - 0 .1 - 0 .4 - 2 .4 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 10.5 723.0 - 2 .5 -1 4 .0 696.2 717.0 719.1 722.3 709.1 700.7 700.7 2-90 3-90 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS MARCH 27» 1991 16 G O V E R N M E N T P U R C H A S E S O F G O O D S A N D S E R V IC E S IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-86 2-86 2-86 9 .2 3-86 7 .2 5 .2 4-86 6.1 4 .6 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS 1-90 2-90 3-90 8 6 9 .3 8 8 0 .3 4 .0 8 8 8 .9 1-87 6 .4 5 .4 5 .6 7 .2 2-87 5 .6 4 .8 4 .6 5 .0 2 .8 904.5 910.7 3-87 6 .0 5 .4 5 .5 6 .0 5 .4 8 .1 4-87 6 .0 5 .5 5 .6 6 .0 5 .6 7 .0 5 .9 1-88 5 .2 4 .6 4 .5 4 .7 4 .0 4 .4 2 .7 2-88 5 .3 4 .8 4 .8 4 .9 4 .5 4 .9 3 .9 2 .9 3-88 4 .7 4 .2 4.1 4 .1 3 .6 3.8 2 .7 1.7 2 .8 - 0 .7 953.8 4-88 6.1 5 .8 5 .8 6.1 5 .9 6.4 6.1 6 .2 8 .5 9.6 20.8 1 ,0 0 0 .0 1-89 5 .9 5 .5 5 .6 5 .8 5 .6 6 .0 5 .7 5 .6 7 .2 7.5 11.8 3.4 2-89 5 .8 5 .6 5 .6 5 .8 5 .6 6 .0 5 .7 5 .6 6 .9 7.0 9 .7 4 .6 5 .8 3-89 5 .6 5*3 5 .3 5 .4 5 .2 5 .5 5 .2 5 .1 6.1 6.0 7 .8 3 .7 3.9 2 .0 4-89 5 .6 5 .4 5 .4 5 .5 5 .3 5 .6 5 .3 5 .2 6.1 6.0 7.4 4 .3 4 .6 4 .1 6 .2 1-90 5 .9 5 .7 5 .7 5 .9 5 .8 6 .0 5 .8 5 .8 6 .6 6.7 8 .0 5 .6 6.1 6 .2 8 .4 10.7 2-90 5 .9 5 .7 5 .8 5 .9 5 .8 6.1 5 .9 5 .9 6 .6 6.6 7.7 5 .7 6.1 6 .2 7 .7 8 .4 928.5 942.0 940.9 - 0 .5 955.4 6 .3 1► 008.5 1 ►022.7 1 >027.8 1.►043.3 1.►070.1 1.►086.4 6 .2 3-90 5 .9 5 .8 5 .8 5 .8 6.1 5 .9 5 .9 6 .6 6.6 7.5 5 .8 6.1 6 .2 7 .3 7.7 6 .2 6 .2 4-90 6 .2 6.1 6.1 6 .3 6 .2 6 .4 6 .3 6 .3 7 .0 7.1 7 .9 6 .4 6 .9 7.1 8 .1 8 .6 7 .9 8 .7 11.4 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 1 vO o 1.►102.8 5 .9 3-90 1,►132.9 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 2 7. 1991 GOVER NM EN T PURCHASES O F GO O D S AND SERVICES IN 1982 DOLLARS (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-86 2-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 9 .5 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 761.2 3-86 5 .8 2.1 4-86 5 .8 3 .9 5 .8 765.2 776.0 1-87 4 .2 2 .5 2 .8 - 0 .2 2-87 2 .7 1.1 0 .7 - 1 .7 - 3 .2 3-87 3 .2 2 .0 1.9 0 .7 1.1 5 .5 4-87 3.6 2 .6 2 .7 2 .0 2 .7 5 .7 6 .0 1-88 1.9 0 .8 0 .6 - 0 .4 - 0 .4 0 .5 - 1 .9 - 9 .2 2-88 2 .0 1.1 1.0 0 .2 0.3 1.2 - 0 .2 - 3 .2 3 .3 3-88 1.4 0 .6 0.4 - 0 .4 - 0 .4 0.2 - 1 .1 - 3 .4 - 0 .3 - 3 .8 4-88 2 .7 2 .0 2 .0 1.5 1.8 2 .6 2 .1 1.1 4 .8 5 .5 1-89 2 .2 1.5 1.4 1.0 1.1 1.7 1.1 0 .2 2 .7 2 .5 5 .8 - 3 .3 2-89 2 .3 1.7 1.7 1.3 1.4 2 .0 1.5 0 .8 3 .0 2 .9 5 .2 0 .3 4 .0 775.7 769.5 779.8 791.3 772.4 778.7 771.2 15.7 799.9 793.2 8 0 1 .0 3-89 2 .0 1.4 1.3 0 .9 1.0 1.5 1.0 0 .4 2 .0 1.8 3 .2 - 0 .6 0.8 - 2 .4 4-89 2 .0 1.5 1.5 1.1 1.2 1.7 1.3 0 .7 2 .2 2 .0 3.2 0 .3 1.5 0 .3 796.2 3 .0 8 0 2 .2 1-90 2 .1 1.6 1.6 1.2 1.4 1.8 1.4 0 .9 2 .3 2.1 3.1 0 .8 1.9 1 .2 3 .0 2 .9 2-90 2 .3 1.9 1.9 1.6 1.7 2 .1 1.9 1.4 2 .7 2 .6 3.6 1.7 2 .7 2 .4 4 .0 4 .5 6 .2 3-90 2 .3 1.8 1.8 1.6 1.7 2 .1 1.8 1.4 2 .6 2 .5 3.3 1.6 2 .5 2 .2 3 .3 3 .4 3 .7 1 .2 4-90 2 .4 2 .0 2 .0 1.8 1.9 2 .3 2 .0 1.7 2 .8 2 .7 3.4 2 .0 2 .8 2 .6 3 .6 3 .8 4 .0 3 .0 4 .7 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2 -89 3-89 4 -89 1-90 2 -9 0 3-90 8 0 7 .9 8 2 0 .2 8 2 2 .7 8 3 2 .3 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LO UIS MARCH 27, 1991 17 D IS P O S A B L E P E R S O N A L IN C O M E IN C U R R E N T D O L L A R S (Compounded A nnual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-86 2 -86 5-86 4 -8 6 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 2-86 6.S 5-86 4 .4 4-86 4 .7 5 .8 5 .5 1-87 6 .1 6 .0 7 .8 10.4 2-87 4 .5 4 .0 4 .5 4 .1 - 1 .8 5-87 5 .6 5 .4 6 .2 6 .5 4 .6 11.4 4-87 6 .5 6 .5 7 .5 7 .8 7 .0 11.6 11.9 1-88 6 .9 6 .9 7 .7 8 .2 7 .6 10.9 10.7 9 .6 2-88 6 .9 7 .0 7 .6 8 .0 7.6 10.0 9 .6 8 .5 7 .4 5—88 7 .2 7 .5 7 .9 8 .5 7 .9 10.0 9 .6 8 .9 8 .6 9 .7 4-88 7 .2 7 .2 7 .8 8 .1 7.8 9.4 9.1 8 .4 8 .0 8 .5 6 .9 7 .4 7 .4 9.1 8 .6 8 .4 8 .7 8 .2 9 .6 1-89 BILLIO N S OF DOLLARS 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 2 -90 5-90 5*006.5 2 .4 5 .0 2 4 .5 5*065.4 5*159.8 5*125.7 5*211.1 5*502.5 5*578.6 5*439.4 5*520.1 5*578.9 5*661.7 8 .0 8 .5 8 .0 9 .5 7.5 8 .8 8 .4 7 .8 7.5 7 .5 6 .8 6 .7 5 .9 7 .5 8 .5 8 .0 7.4 7.1 7 .0 6 .5 6 .2 4 .5 5 .1 7.5 6.9 6 .9 6 .5 6 .2 5 .1 5 .6 6.1 6 .9 7 .9 5 .6 9 7 .5 2-89 7.1 7.1 7 .6 7 .8 5-89 6 .9 7 .0 7 .4 7 .6 4-89 6 .9 6 .9 7 .5 7 .4 7 .2 8 .1 7.8 1-90 7 .1 7.1 7 .4 7 .6 7 .4 8 .5 7 .9 7 .5 7.5 7.5 6 .8 6 .8 6 .2 2-90 6 .9 6 .9 7 .2 7 .5 7.1 7 .9 7.6 7 .2 6 .9 6 .8 6 .4 6 .4 5 .7 6.2 6 .5 6.7 4 .0 5-90 6 .7 6 .8 7 .0 7 .2 6 .9 7.6 7.5 6 .9 6.7 6 .6 6 .2 6.1 5 .5 5 .8 6.0 6 .0 4 .2 4 .5 4-90 6 .6 6 .6 6 .8 6 .9 6 .7 7.5 7.0 6 .6 6.4 6.2 5 .9 5 .7 5 .2 5 .4 5 .5 5 .5 5.9 5 .9 5 .5 1-86 2-86 5-86 4 -8 6 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 5*745.4 5 .7 9 9 .6 9 .6 5 .8 8 7 .7 5*925.7 5*969.1 4*001.9 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 27» 1991 DISPOSABLE PERSONAL IN C O M E IN 1982 DOLLARS (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-86 2 -86 6 .2 2-86 5-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 INITIAL QUARTER ANNUAL RATES 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 5-90 2-90 2*648.6 5-86 2 .2 -1 .7 4-86 1 .9 -0 .2 1.4 2*637.5 1-87 2 .5 1.1 2 .5 5 .6 2-87 0 .5 - 0 .8 -0 .6 -1 .5 - 6 .5 5-87 1 .5 0 .6 1.2 1 .2 0 .0 6 .7 4-87 2 .4 1.7 2 .4 2 .7 2 .4 7.1 7 .5 1-88 5 .0 2 .5 5 .2 5 .6 5 .6 7.1 7 .4 7 .5 2-88 2 .9 2 .5 5 .2 5 .5 5 .4 6 .0 5 .8 5 .0 2 .7 5-88 5.1 2 .8 5 .4 5 .7 5.7 5 .8 5 .6 4 .9 5 .8 4 .9 4-88 5 .0 2 .7 5 .2 5 .5 5 .5 5 .2 4 .9 4 .5 5 .5 5 .6 2 .5 1-89 5.1 2 .9 5 .5 5 .6 5 .6 5 .1 4 .8 4 .5 5 .5 5 .8 5 .5 4 .2 2-89 2 .8 2 .5 2 .9 5 .1 5 .0 4 .5 5.9 5 .5 2 .6 2 .5 1.7 1.5 - 1 .2 2*646.2 2*669.5 2*626.5 2*669.2 2*717.9 2*765.9 2*784.4 2*818.0 2*855.9 2*865.5 2*854.9 5-89 2 .8 2 .5 2 .9 5 .1 5.0 4.1 5 .8 5 .2 2 .6 2 .6 2 .0 1.9 0 .8 2 .7 4-89 2 .7 2 .5 2 .8 2 .9 2 .8 5 .8 5.5 5 .0 2 .4 2 .4 1 .8 1 .7 0 .9 2 .0 1.2 1-90 2 .7 2 .5 2 .8 2 .9 2 .8 5.7 5 .4 2 .9 2 .4 2 .4 2 .0 1 .9 1.5 2 .2 1.9 2-90 2 .5 2 .5 2 .6 2 .7 2 .6 5 .4 5.1 2 .7 2 .2 2 .1 1 .7 1.6 1.1 1.7 1.5 1.4 0 .5 5-90 2 .4 2 .1 2 .4 2 .5 2 .4 5.1 2 .8 2 .4 1.9 1.8 1.4 1.5 0 .8 1 .2 0 .8 0 .7 - 0 .2 - 0 .7 4-90 2 .0 1 .8 2 .0 2 .1 2 .0 2 .6 2 .5 1.9 1.4 1.5 0 .9 0 .7 0 .2 0 .4 - 0 .1 - 0 .4 - 1 .5 - 2 .1 - 5 .5 1-86 2 -86 5-86 4 -86 1-87 2-87 5-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 5-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 5-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 5-90 2*874.5 2*885.2 2*900.9 2 .5 2*902.8 2*898.0 2*872.4 IN IT IA L QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST . LOUIS MARCH 27. 1991 18 CORPORATE PROFITS AFTER TAXES (Compounded Annual Rates of Change) TERMINAL QUARTER 1-86 BILLIONS OF DOLLARS ANNUAL RATES INITIAL QUARTER 2-86 3-86 4-86 2-86 - 5 .9 3-86 5 .4 18.0 4—86 9 .7 18.4 1-87 19.4 29.3 35.3 54.0 2-87 23.0 31.6 36.4 46.2 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4-89 1-90 2-90 3-90 111.2 115.9 18.8 121.0 134.8 38.7 146.3 3-87 23.5 30.4 33.7 39.1 32.2 26.0 4-87 2 1.0 2 6.2 2 7.9 30.2 23.2 16.0 6 .9 1-88 2 3.3 28.1 29 .9 32.2 27.3 23.7 22.6 155.0 157.6 171.6 40 .6 2-88 22.7 26.8 28.2 29.8 25.4 22.3 21.1 28 .9 18.1 3-88 2 1.2 2 4 .6 2 5.5 26.5 22.4 19.3 17.7 21 .6 13.1 8 .3 4-88 20.6 23 .7 24.3 2 5.0 2 1.3 18.7 17.2 20 .0 13.8 11.7 15.3 1-89 18.3 20 .7 21.0 2 1.3 17.7 15.0 13.2 14.5 8 .8 5.9 4 .7 2-89 14.2 16.1 15.9 15.6 12.0 9 .0 6 .8 6 .7 1.0 - 2 .9 178.9 182.5 189.1 - 5 .0 186.7 - 6 .3 -1 5 .5 - 2 4 .9 173.8 163.6 3-89 11.2 12.6 12.2 11.6 8 .1 5 .1 2 .7 2 .2 - 3 .1 -6 .9 -1 0 .4 -1 7 .6 -2 3 .2 -2 1 .5 4-89 10.9 12.2 11.8 11.2 7 .9 5 .3 3 .2 2 .7 - 1 .8 -4 .8 - 7 .2 -1 2 .1 -1 4 .3 - 8 .4 6 .8 1-90 10.3 11.5 11.0 10.4 7.4 5 .0 3.1 2 .6 - 1 .3 - 3 .8 - 5 .7 - 9 .4 -1 0 .5 - 5 .1 4 .3 1 .9 2-90 9 .5 10.6 10.1 9.5 6.6 4 .3 2 .5 2 .1 - 1 .4 -3 .6 - 5 .2 - 8 .3 - 8 .9 - 4 .4 2 .0 - 0 .2 -2 .4 3-90 10.8 11.9 11.5 11.1 8 .5 6.5 5 .0 4 .8 1.8 0.1 - 0 .9 - 3 .0 - 2 .6 2 .6 9 .7 10.6 15.3 36.1 4-90 10.5 11.4 11.1 10.6 8 .2 6 .3 4 .9 4 .7 2 .0 0.5 - 0 .3 - 2 .1 - 1 .7 2 .8 8 .5 8 .9 11.3 18.9 3 .8 1-86 2-86 3-86 4-86 1-87 2-87 3-87 4-87 1-88 2-88 3-88 4-88 1-89 2-89 3-89 4 -89 1-90 2-90 3-90 166.3 167.1 166.1 179.4 181.1 INITIAL QUARTER PREPARED BY FEDERAL RESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS MARCH 2 7 . 1991 H IST O R I C A L SOURCES OF NA T I O N A L INCOME A N D PRODUCT ACCOUNTS D A T A Estimates for the series in the regular q u a r t e r l y p r e s e n t a t i o n of N I P A tables for 1987-90:11 are published in the J u l y 1990 Surv e y of Current B u s i n e s s . Data for 1983, 1984, 1985 and 1986 are p u b l i s h e d in the J u l y 1986, J u l y 1987, J u l y 1988 and July 1989 Surv e y o f Current B u s i n e s s , respectively. Estimates for NIP A series for 1929-82 are p u b l i s h e d in The National Income and Product A c c ounts of the U n i t e d States. 1929-82:__ Statistical T a b l e s . For further information and prices, write to the N a t i o n a l Income and W e a l t h D i v i s i o n (BE-54), Bureau of Economic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce, Washington, D.C. 20230. 19 INVENTORIES COMPARED WITH MONTHLY MANUF ACT URI NG AND TRADE SALES SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 72 72 1 .6 8 68 .6 4 64 60 60 56 56 52 52 48 48 44 44 40 40 36 36 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 SOURCE: U.S.DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE «BEGINNING IN 1982, INVENTORY DATA REFLECT CHANGES IN ESTIMATION PROCEDURES. SHADED AREAS REPRESENT PERIODS OF BUSINESS RECESSIONS. LATEST DATA PLOTTED: JANUARY PRELIMINARY PREPARED 20 BY FEDERAL R ESERVE BANK OF ST. LOUIS
@FedFRASER