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October 2003 ¡artment of L; https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Bureau o f Labor Statistics 1ì 11I LÌ 1 ? 5î f i 1 U.S. Department of Labor Elaine L. Chao, Secretary Bureau o f Labor Statistics Kathleen P. Utgoff, Commissioner The Monthly Labor Review (usps 987-800) is published monthly by the Bureau o f Labor Statistics o f the U.S. Department of Labor. The Review welcomes articles on the la b o r fo rce , la b o r-m an a g e m en t re la tio n s , b u sin ess c o n d itio n s, in d u stry p ro d u c tiv ity , co m p e n sa tio n , occupational safety and health, demographic trends, and other economic developments. Papers should be factual and analytical, not polemical in tone. 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Cover designed by Keith Tapscott https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis MONTHLY LABOR REVIEW Volume 126, Number 10 October 2003 Evaluating the BLS labor force projections to 2000 3 BLS projected labor force participation rates were too high and census population counts were low, resulting in relatively accurate projections Howard N Fullerton, Jr. Evaluating the BLS 1988-2000 employment projections 13 The projections were reasonably accurate in most broad occupations; the chief source of error was the conservative nature of staffing patterns Andrew Alpert and Jill Auyer Reports CES program: changes planned for hours and earnings series 38 Patricia M.Getz CES program: introduction of concurrent seasonal adjustment 39 Chris Manning Women at work: a visual essay 45 Departments Labor month in review Program reports Précis Book reviews Current labor statistics 2 3g 44 51 53 Editor-in-Chief: Deborah P. Klein • Executive Editor: Richard M. Devens • Managing Editor: Anna Huffman Hill • Editors: Brian I. Baker, Richard Hamilton, Leslie Brown Joyner • Book Reviews: Richard Hamilton • Design and Layout: Catherine D. Bowman, Edith W. Peters • Contributors: Horst Brand https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Labor In Month Review The O ctober Review The Bureau of Labor Statistics issued its first projections of the 2000 labor force and occupational em ploym ent structure in 1986. In his evaluation of these and subsequent projections of the labor force at the turn of the century, Howard N Fullerton, Jr., points out that the difference between the projected number in the labor force in 2000 and the actual number of 140.9 million was about 2 million or 1-1/2 percent. C uriously enough, the two potential sources of error— the size of the p o p u la tio n and the lab o r force p a rtic ip a tio n ra te — both had larg er relative errors, but they offset each other. Andrew Alpert and Jill Auyer evaluate the clo sely follow ed p ro jectio n s of occupational em ploym ent that were issued at the same time as the labor force p ro jectio n s. O verall, they state, the p ro je c tio n s fo r 2 0 0 0 at the m a jo r occu p tio n al group level w ere m ea surably better than those that had been made for 1995, but those for more fine grained occupations were not. Program reports by Patricia Getz and Chris M anning cover planned changes to the Current Em ploym ent Statistics program and recen t changes in the p ro g ra m ’s seasonal adjustm ent p ro cedures, respectively. The issue is topped off by a visual essay, or chart section, on women in the workforce. This is in the nature of an experiment, and we encourage readers to give us any feedback on how to better execute the concept, topics to consider, and any other reactions. Septem ber 11 related to layoffs occurred in just five States— California, Washington, Nevada, Illinois, and New York. Among those laid off because of the terrorist attacks, 33 percent had been employed in the air transportation industry. An additional 21 percent had been employed in hotels and motels. An extended mass layoff event is defined as 50 or more initial claims for unemployment insurance benefits from an establishment during a 5-week period, with at least 50 workers separated for more than 30 days. For more information, see Extended Mass Layoffs in 2002, BLS report 971, August 2003. The large m ajority o f em ployees covered by medical care plans were in p la n s re q u irin g em p lo y ee c o n tri butions. E m ployee contributions to medical care premiums averaged $228.98 per m onth for fam ily coverage and $60.24 for single coverage. Since 199293, the average m onthly contribution required of employees has risen about 75 percent for both single and family coverage. Learn m ore in “Em ployee Benefits in Private Industry, 2003,” news release usd l 03-489. Work fatalities lower in 2002 In March 2003, just under half of private industry employees participated in an em ployer provided retirem en t plan. Tw enty p ercen t o f p rivate industry employees were in defined benefit plans and 40 percent were covered by defined contribution plans. (Some em ployees participate in both types.) The overall coverage of retirement plans has held relatively steady for the la st few y ears. T he m ix o f p la n s, however, has changed. Defined benefit plans cover a smaller portion of workers th an they did 10 y ears ago, w hile defined contribution plans cover a larger po rtio n . L earn m ore in “E m ployee Benefits in Private Industry, 2003,” news release usd l 03-489. A total of 5,524 fatal work injuries were recorded in 2002, a decline of 6.6 percent from 2001. The count for 2002 was the lowest recorded by the fatality census, which has been conducted yearly since 1992. In 2001,5,915 fatal work injuries occurred, excluding the 2,886 workrelated fatalities that resulted from the September 11 terrorist attacks, which were tabulated separately. Fatal work injuries were down in almost every demographic category in 2002—men and women, wage and salary and s e lf-e m p lo y e d w o rk e rs, and virtually all age groups. Fatal highway incidents were down 3 percent from 2001, but continued to be the m ost frequent type of fatal workplace event. Construction continued to record the highest number of fatal injuries of any major industry. Additional information is available from “National Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries in 2002,” news release u s d l 03-488. Health care benefits D u rin g 2001 and 2002, em p lo y ers rep o rted 507 ex ten d ed m ass la y o ff events that were related either directly or indirectly to the terrorist attacks of S e p te m b e r 11, 2 0 0 1 . T he la y o ffs involved 145,844 workers in 34 States. Forty-nine percent of these layoffs and fifty-four percent of the separations 2 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October The proportion of employees covered by employer-sponsored medical care plans in private industry has fallen gradually over the last decade. In March 2003, 45 percent of employees had elected medical care coverage, down from 63 percent in 1992-93. 2003 Retirement plans In ternation al productivity comparison Of 13 important economies, Korea and S w eden reco rd ed the h ig h e st m an ufacturing productivity gains in 2002. The Netherlands and the United Kingdom recorded the smallest gains. Italy posted the only decline. The United States posted its h ig h est annual grow th rate in manufacturing output per hour in 15 years, but the gain, at 6.4 percent, was ranked only fourth among the 13 economies. For more inform ation, see “International C om parisons of M anufacturing P ro ductivity and Unit Labor Cost Trends, 2002,” news release usdl 03-469. □ Evaulation of Labor Force Projections Evaluating the BLS labor force projections to 2000 BLS labor force participation rates were high and census population projections were low, resulting in relatively accurate labor force projections to 2000 Howard N Fullerton Jr. Howard N Fullerton Jr. formerly was a senior dem ographic statistician in the Office of O ccupational Statistics and Employment Projections, Bureau of Labor Statistics. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis i he Bureau o f Labor Statistics ( b l s ) has groups of the white, black, Asian and other, and made labor force projections since the late Hispanic origin population and labor force. (These 1950s. Data for these projections are based earlier projections did not have as much age detail on age, sex, race and Hispanic origin. Beginning for Hispanics as for the other groups.) Each of the in 1968, bls has reviewed and evaluated past five projections to 2000 had three alternatives: high, labor force projections to determine closeness to moderate, and low. This analysis, for the most part, the actual figures. Such evaluations help both focuses on the middle or “moderate” growth pro individuals making projections and those using jection in each series. Where appropriate, the the projections to understand the sources of error accuracy of the five 2000 projections are compared and the accuracy of specific components. with evaluations of b l s projections to 1985,1990, b l s projected the 2 0 0 0 labor force at five different and 1995. Each of the projections is identified by times, roughly 2 years apart. Of these 5 projections, the year from which the projection was made (1986, 3 had errors of a million or less; the most extreme 1988,1990,1992, and 1994).2 errors ranged 1.5 percent above or below the actual One of the challenges in evaluating projections 2000 labor force of 140.9 million. The growth rate of is that the estimates for 2000 are not strictly the labor force is crucial to the BLS employment comparable with the data projected. For example, projections program. The error in the growth rate after the 1990 census, extensive changes to the cps varied by a tenth of a percentage point above or were implemented in 1994. These changes included below the actual growth rate for the periods over an adjustm ent for the undercount, as well as which the projection was made. At the same time, changes in the questions asked. The latter resulted p ro jectio n s o f the civ ilian nonin stitu tio n al in a greater proportion of women and older persons population were uniformly low. Thus, the labor force being counted in the labor force. It is not possible participation rate projections were generally too to quantify the effect of these improvements in the high. survey, so it is not possible to know how much U ntil recently, BLS projections focused on they affect projection accuracy. However, it is clear years divisible by five, so evaluations took place that projections made before 1994 did not anticipate at 5-year intervals. This article is an evaluation of the effects of the redesign and that projections the bls labor force projections to 2000. Beginning made after 1994 did not immediately incorporate all in 1986 and continuing to 1994, BLS prepared five the changes. projections either to 2000 or through 2000.1This Another challenge in evaluation is that no one article exam ines the difference betw een the measure of error or quality satisfies all users of projections and the labor force as estimated in the labor force projections. Some use the total the C urrent P opu latio n Survey (CPS) using labor force— or even the growth rate of the labor weights from the 1990 census. The differences, force— not needing any of the components. For or errors, are calculated by sex for detailed age many users, some part of the labor force is vital, T Monthly Labor Review October 2003 3 Evaluation of Labor Force Projections for example, youth workers or older workers. Others use the projected labor force participation rates to conduct market research or to project State populations. Another group of users focus on the distribution of the labor force by race and sex. Still another challenge is that there are two sources of possible error in projecting the labor force: the projected population and the projected labor force participation rates. It would be helpful to know how these series combine to produce the errors in the labor force projections. This article first examines the error in the aggregate labor force, both in the levels and in the growth rates. It then examines errors in the projection of the population and errors in labor force participation rates. Finally, this article analyzes labor force errors, including issues of distribution and levels among demographic groups. Aggregate 2000 projections Evaluation of the aggregate 2000 labor force projections reveals that the overall errors were greatest in 1986 and 1990; except for these 2 years, the errors were less than 1 percent. The following tabulation shows the projections to 2000 (in millions), and the numerical and percent error made in each year the projections were based: Projection for 2000 made from — 1986........................... 1988 ........................... 1990........................... 1992........................... 1994........................... Labor force 138.8 141.1 142.9 141.8 140.0 Error Millions Percent -2.1 .3 2.0 -1.5 .2 1.5 .7 -.6 1.0 -.9 Actual: 2000........................... 140.9 The error information in the tabulation indicates that the short, versus long time-span does not seem to be a factor in improving the accuracy of labor force projections. A similar conclusion w ould be inferred from earlier analyses. (The first three projections also were evaluated for 1995. The overall errors were greatest in 1986 and 1990; for the other years, the errors were less than 1 percent. It is interesting to note that the numerical errors are less for 2000 than those for 1995 with the 1988 and 1990 projections. It is possible for a projection to improve with age.) For some users, the absolute error or the percent error is not relevant, but the error in the growth rate is. The following tabulation displays the historic growth rate for the civilian labor force, the projected annual growth rate, the actual growth rate, and the error in the growth rate. All three rates in a row are measured over the same number of years. The historic rate is calculated over the same number of years before the date of the projection, as 2000 is after the date of the projection: 4 Monthly Labor Review October 2003 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Projection for 2000 made in— 1986 ....................... 1988 ....................... 1990....................... 1992....................... 1994....................... Historical rate Projected rate Actual rate 2.2 2.0 1.6 1.5 1.2 1.2 1.2 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.3 1.2 1.1 1.2 1.2 Error - 0.1 .0 .1 .1 -.1 The error in the annual growth rate from 1988 was actually 0.02 percent. For four other projections, the error in the annual growth rate was either -0.1 or 0.1. For individuals using the projections to forecast either employment or economic growth, this level of error would be minor. For growth rates, b l s projected variously that the rate of growth would slow significantly from past rates of growth (by a full percentage point in the 1986 projection) to not much different from past rates of growth (by a tenth of a point in the 1994 projection). Except for the 1994 projection, when bls projected a decrease in the growth rate and the labor force continued to grow at past rates, the change was in the correct direction and the error in the growth rate was less than the projected change in the growth rate. Population projections BLS labor force projections are prepared using the incidence method: the labor force participation rates by age, sex, race, or Hispanic origin are multiplied by comparable projections of the population, prepared by the Census Bureau.3 b l s adjusts the resident population, provided by the Census Bureau, to get figures of the civilian, noninstitutional population. Although errors were made in making this adjustment, they are not considered to be sufficiently large to incorporate into this analysis. Some sense of the size of this type of error may be garnered by seeing how the errors in the adjusted population varies for the first two labor force projections. For the projection from 1994, the projected population also was adjusted for the 1990 undercount, as the CPS itself was so adjusted. Population projections have three components: births, deaths, and net immigration. Each of these may be a source of error, as well as the initial population from which the projection is made. Because these projections spanned a period of less than 16 years, errors in births did not affect the size or composition of the labor force. Although it is true that there were fewer deaths than projected, most of those extended lives occurred at older ages when persons are less likely to be in the labor force. The source of the discrepancy m ust be net immigration either over the projection or as part of the estimate of the base year population. If so, then errors would be larger for Hispanics and Asian and others. The Census Bureau prepares its own evaluation of their population projections; this article examines only the population projections as they affect the size and composition of the labor force.4 Error fo r the population projections. For the past decade, population growth has accounted for more labor force growth than has the labor force participation rate change. Thus, the accuracy o f population projections should be crucial to the accuracy o f the labor force projections. The follow ing tabulatio n show s the 2000 projections for the civilian, noninstitutional population aged 16, and the errors associated with the total population projections: Projections for 2000 made in— Total Error Millions 1986 .......................... . 1988 .......................... . 1990.......................... . 1992.......................... . 1994.......................... . 204.7 204.6 208.0 208.0 208.8 -5.0 -5.1 -1.7 -1.7 -.9 Percent -2.4 -2.4 -.8 -.8 -.4 Actual 2000.......................... . 209.7 U nlike the labor force projection, all the population projections were low. Unlike the labor force projections, the p opulatio n pro jectio n s show steady im provem ent. The difference between the percent errors in the first tabulation (page 4) and this one indicate that b l s made offsetting errors in labor force participation rates, reducing the errors in the aggregate labor force. The follow ing tabulation presents hypothetical labor force projections using the projected population and the actual 2000 labor force participation rates: Projections fo r2000 made in— 1986 ....................... 1988 ....................... 1990....................... 1992....................... 1994....................... Total Error (in millions) 136.9 136.8 139.5 139.2 140.4 -3.9 -4.0 -1.3 -1.6 -.5 Difference from actual error -1.8 -4.3 -3.4 -2.6 .4 Percent error -2.8 -2.9 -1.0 -1.9 -.3 The numerical errors made in this hypothetical projection are less than those for the population (previous tabulation). Except for the projection from 1994, these projections would have a larger error than the projections that were made: the labor force would have been even smaller. The percent errors for these hypothetical labor force projections were different from those for the population projection and, except for 1994, the percent errors for the hypothetical labor force projections were greater. Errors by sex, race and Hispanic origin, and age in the population projections. To trace errors in the population projection, the mean absolute percent error (hereinafter referred to as “mean error”) may be calculated at differing levels of https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis aggregation. Table 1 provides the mean errors for several of the various aggregations (in percent). The m ean error for aggregate population is the absolute value of the percent error. The mean error for men and women considered separately averages to the aggregate mean error, so they are not displayed in this table. W hen mean errors are calculated for the three race and one Hispanic origin groups, they are larger than the aggregate error, but the relative standing of the various projections does not change. The errors made when projecting by race offset each other. Therefore, the projection with all race/ ethnicity groups separated out is more accurate than that implied by the error associated with any single race/ethnicity grouping. When sex and race are considered together, the mean errors are lower than the error associated with race alone for the first two projections and about the same as those for the last three projections of the population. Finally, accounting for age, sex, and race results in a larger aggregate error than any of the other groupings considered. Examination of the detailed projections does not indicate that using more aggregated age groups would have increased the accuracy of the overall projections. The population of both men and women were underprojected. A closer examination reveals that the difference was greater for men than for women through the projection from 1990. The first two projections had markedly larger projection errors than the last three. That the error was larger for men than for women reflects the greater tendency for men to be undocumented immigrants, thus, it is likely that the errors attributed to underestimates of undocumented workers decreased because population projection errors reduced as time passed. All five projections correctly projected that there would be substantially more women than men in the 16 and older population. For all five labor force projections (three population projections), the size of the white population was underprojected. As whites made up 84 percent of the population in 2000, they should also account for most of the error. Generally, however, it is easier to measure and project large groups. For all the projections, the errors for the white labor force projections were less than 84 percent of the error. Except for the projection from 1990, whites accounted for more than half of the projection error. Two population groups would be expected to be hard to project: Asians and others and Hispanics. Both groups have high immigration, are fairly heterogeneous, and are relatively small. Asians and others accounted for 5 percent of the 16 and older population in 2000, but for each of the projections, the first population projection, they accounted for 27 percent of the error. For the next population projection, their numerical error slightly exceeded the error for whites. For the fifth population projection, the errors were much smaller, accounting for 16 percent of error. However, their projected population was higher than actual, unlike the other three groups. Hispanics may be of any race, however, more than 90 percent are white. Thus, errors in projecting the numbers of Hispanics Monthly Labor Review October 2003 5 Evaluation of Labor Force Projections M e a n errors for v a rio u s a g g r e g a tio n s , p ro je c tio n s fo r 2 0 0 0 m a d e in 1 9 8 6 -9 4 [In percent] C a te g o ry Aggregate error..................... Mean error for— Race................................... Sex and race....................... Sex, race, and a g e ............. P ro jection for 2 0 0 0 m a d e in 1986 1988 1990 1992 2.4 2.4 0.8 0.8 0.4 6.4 5.5 7.6 6.4 5.6 7.7 4.3 4.2 6.3 3.5 3.4 4.1 1.5 1.5 3.6 1994 carry into the number of whites. It should be no surprise that the Hispanic population is difficult to project accurately because Hispanics have high immigration rates and it is estimated they are a large component of undocumented immigration. Hispanics accounted for 11 percent of the 16 and older population in 2000. Errors in their population projection accounted for 38 percent of the error from 1986 and 37 percent of the projections from 1988. For the labor force projection from 1990, which used the same population projection for Hispanics as the previous two, the error was the same size (1.9 million low), but it now exceeded the total population error (1.7 million low). This projection was not based on the 1990 census. The 1992 and 1994 projections were the relative size of the projection errors decreased. Even so, the error in the number of Hispanics exceeded that for whites in the projection from 1992. The dynamic changes in the Hispanic population are reflected in the difficulties of projecting this group. For the first two population projections (first three labor force projections), the black population had relatively small errors— less than their share of the population, which is 12 percent. This population group, though growing faster than the overall population, has demonstrated a consistent path of growth. The black population was the most accurately projected group in the projections from 1994. For the pro jection from 1992 the error was much larger, and accounted for 30 percent of total error. For the projection from 1994, although the size of the numerical error was smallest of the five (because the total error was by far the smallest), the black’s share of the projection error was larger than their share of the population. dispersion that the more recent projections had a smaller range of errors. Indeed, the ranges of errors dropped by a third. The decrease in dispersion is larger that the change in the medians of the errors. Which groups had the lowest underprojection? For the projections from 1986 through 1992, it was white men ages 20 to 24. For the projection from 1994, it was Hispanic women ages 25 to 34. (The error for this group of women was always in the lowest one-eighth.) W hite men ages 20 to 24 consist of a large group with a large absolute error, but their relative errors are smaller. The relative errors for Hispanic women ages 25 to 34 are larger than those for white men ages 20 to 24. Hispanic men ages 20 to 24 also have large errors— absolute and relative— for the 1986 population projections. Nevertheless, errors in projecting the size of the 20- to-24 and 25- to-3 4-year old Hispanic population also affected projecting the size of the white population of the same age. Which groups were the most overprojected? This varied by year. For the 1986 population projection, it was white men ages 50 to 54. For the 1988 population projection, it was white men ages 30 to 34, followed by white men, 35 to 39. For the 1994 projection, Asian and other women ages 50 to 54 were the most overprojected group. Again, white men are a large group and the source of a large error. Also for the 1994 projection, Asian and others were overprojected as a group. White m en’s age groups were over- and underprojected, by large amounts, but the population of older white men was uniformly overprojected. At this point, it is clear that the population projections were too low; given that the aggregate labor force projections were much more accurate, it is easy to infer that the projected labor force participation rates must be too high. It is not clear what effect the errors in the population projections had on the distribution of the labor force by race or sex. That question must be answered after examining the labor force participation rate projections. 1 Summary of depth and dispersion of errors in projections for 2000 made in 1986-94 [In thousands] C a te g o ry 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 -495 -106 —44 -6 16 33 195 -273 -53 -25 -10 8 24 75 59 139 691 33 76 348 D ep th Errors by age, sex, and race or Hispanic origin in the population projections. For each of the five population projections, there are 108 errors to examine at the level of age, sex, race or H ispanic origin. Table 2 provides summary information about the depth and dispersion of the errors, in thousands. It indicates that the population was underprojected. The middle, half-way points, or medians are negative. For the first population projection, three-quarters of the population errors were negative. It is apparent from the three lines of error 6 Monthly Labor Review October 2003 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Lowest.......................... Lowest one-eighth......... Lowest quarter............... Half (median).................. Highest quarters............ Highest eighth................ Highest.......................... -965 -167 -100 -36 -1 41 136 -958 -167 -108 -36 -1 41 137 -622 -114 -56 -22 23 53 226 Dispersion Inner 50 percent............ Inner 75 percent............ Range ............................ 100 208 1,101 107 208 1,095 78 167 848 Labor force participation rates Table 4. Aggregate measures o f labor force participation. [In percent] What BLS brings to the labor force projection process is its projection of labor force participation rates. A lthough the population projections currently account for most of projected labor force change, study of the errors made in projecting the labor force participation rates is important also. Four of the five labor force participation rate projections had the aggregate labor force participation higher than the actual. As table 3 indicates, the aggregate labor force rate has yet to reach 68 percent, though three of the projections anticipated that this would happen by 2000. Given that 2000 was the last year in a sequence of high economic growth, it is significant that the projected labor force rates were higher than the actual. From the projection made in 1988 up to 1994 the error in the aggregate labor force participation rate decreased for each projection. However, the 1986 projection was the second most accurate. Comparing women and men, it is clear that m en’s rates were more accurately projected than those o f women. All the projected participation rates for women were high. As the labor force rates of men change more slowly than those of women, it is easier to accurately project their labor force participation rate. This slower rate of change for male rates may be ending at the older ages. A variety of incentives exist that could result in higher labor force participation rates for retirem ent age men. These include a change in the normal retirement age under Social Security, and a switch from defined benefit to defined contribution retirement plans. Sex and race or Hispanic origin. M ean absolute percent errors may be calculated also for the labor force participation rates. For the aggregate error, they are the absolute value of the relative errors. (See table 4.) Errors by gender provide little additional information beyond that for aggregate error— the greatest difference from the aggregate error occurs with the projection from 1994, which had the rate for women too high and that for men too low— because there is no reward for Table 3 . 1 Projections of the 2000 labor force participation rate, by sex and percentage point errors, 19861994, and actual Mean errors for various aggregations of the projections for 2000, by sex, race, and age P rojections for 2 0 0 0 m a d e in — C a te g o ry Aggregate error......... Mean error forSex......................... Race....................... Sex and race.......... Sex, race, and age .. 1986 1988 0.9 2.7 1.1 1.2 4.4 14.5 2.8 1.9 5.9 9.8 1990 1992 1994 2.3 1.5 0.3 2.4 .9 2.8 5.7 1.6 .8 2.1 6.2 .8 3.1 3.0 5.1 offsetting errors. The mean absolute percent error for race indicates that the worst projection was the one from 1994. Labor force rates for the four race and Hispanic origin groups shows that the percentage point error for 1994 was zero for whites— their best projection— but that the projection from 1994 was by far the worst for blacks, Asians and others, and Hispanics. The mean absolute percent errors were not weighted by size of group. Whites were 83 percent of the 2000 labor force, so that for weighted measures of error, the most accurate year for the overall labor force would be the most accurate year for whites. For the mean absolute percent error by race and gender, the projection from 1988 was least accurate. It was not the case that a good projection for men implied a good projection for women, but certainly the converse was not true. (The correlation of men and women’s errors is 0.33.) When the age structure is also considered, then the projection from 1986 had the greatest mean absolute percent error. The projection for this year also had the greatest numerical error. Both the population and the labor force participation projections contributed to this error in the 1986 projection, with the population too low and the participation too high. The labor force participation rate projections from 1994 had the lowest error for whites, but had the worst errors for other race groups. Because whites make up the majority of the labor force, the 1994 projection had the lowest error in labor force participation rates. By contrast, the 1986 projection had large errors in both the population and labor force participation rate projections. Age, sex, and race or Hispanic origin. Total Projections for 20 0 0 m a d e in— P ercen t 1986.......... 1988.......... 1990.......... 1992........... 1994........... 67.8 69.0 68.7 68.2 67.0 Actual........ 67.2 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Men W om en Error (in Error (in Error (in p e rc e n t p e rc e n t p e rc e n t P ercen t P ercen t age age age points) points) points ) 0.6 1.8 1.5 1.0 -.2 74.7 75.9 76.0 75.3 74.0 74.7 0.0 1.2 1.3 .6 -.7 61.5 62.6 62.0 61.6 60.6 60.2 1.3 2.4 1.8 1.4 .4 Overall, there are 108 labor force participation rate projection errors to examine. Table 5 summarizes the cumulative errors for those categories, ranked from most negative to most positive. The aggregate labor force participation rates were too high in 4 of the 5 projections; the median of the errors of the age-sex-race or Hispanic origin participation rates were closer to zero than the errors of the aggregate, with the exception of the most recent projection. If the thesis is that the labor force participation rates were too high to offset population projections that w ere too low, then 4 projections of the 5 fit that mold. This information is also Monthly Labor Review October 2003 7 Evaluation of Labor Force Projections available in chart 1 (top panel), which has box-and-whisker plots for the five projections. (See box on page 10.) O ne desirab le ch aracteristic o f the p ro jections as a sequence would be that the dispersion of the errors would be less for the m ore recen t projectio n s. The m easures of dispersion in table 5 (bottom) and chart 1 (top panel) indicate that this was taking place until the 1994 projection. That the most accurate projection is not the most recent made seems to be a characteristic o f labor force projections, this also happened with the projections to 1990 and 1995. W hich groups had the worst labor force participation rate projection error? The following tabulation illustrates the answer to this question for each projection. Projection from — Most overprojected Most underprojected 1986 ............ B lack m en 18 and 19 1988 ............ B lack m en 18 and 19 1 9 9 0 .......... . A sian and o ther w om en 16 and 17 1 9 9 2 ............ B lack m en 60 and 61 1 9 9 4 .......... . A sian and o ther w om en 50 to 54 A sian and other m en 60 and 61 A sian and o th er m en 65 to 69 H ispanic w om en 45 to 54 B lack w om en 25 to 29 H ispanic m en 60 to 64 The pattern here im plies that sm all groups are hard to project. F or h a lf the groups, 2 years o f errors occur. With the exception o f black wom en 25 to 29, the rem aining groups are small. “Were some age groups harder to project than others?” To examine this question, chart 1 (middle panel) presents boxand-w hisker plots of the errors by age-sex-race/Hispanic origin groups. (We have six projection errors for white women ages 20 to 24, six for black women of the same age, and so on.) Although the median of the errors by projection year are near zero, except for the 1994 projection, the data by age indicate that there was significant variation in the errors by age. For the 25- to-54-age group, w hich exhibits the highest labor wnuam m Summary of errors in the components of the |a ^ or f0rce participation rates, for 5 years of the 2000 projection Error 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 -9.0 -3.4 -1.3 .4 1.8 3.4 7.6 -10.6 -4.9 -3.6 -1.6 .3 1.7 7.1 3.1 3.9 D ep th Lowest............... Lowest eighth..... Lowest quarter.... Half (median)...... Highest quarter ... Highest eighth.... Highest.............. -16.9 -5.8 -3.1 -.1 3.1 6.6 12.4 -9.8 -3.5 -2.1 .6 3.5 6.1 11.1 -8.5 -2.6 -1.8 .6 2.3 4.3 8.3 Dispersion Inner50 percent... 8 6.1 5.6 4.1 Monthly Labor Review October 2003 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis force participation rates, the m edian of the errors were either high or near zero, giving the source of the high aggregate labor force participation rates. For the older ages, the m edian of the errors was below zero. For these age groups for which there is now great interest in their pattern of labor force participation, there was a consistent pattern of labor force participation projections that were too low. Labor force participation rates for older men increased from 1985 to 1990, then decreased until 1994 and have increased since then. These changes did not start at the same tim e for all groups of older men. Starting with the 1996 labor force projections, BLS has projected this change in trend. (It was among the first to do so.) A ccording to the box-and-w hisker plots o f labor force participation rates by age group (chart 1, m iddle panel), it is c le a r th a t th e age g ro u p s y o u n g e r th a n 60 w ere o v erprojected. The labor force p a rticip atio n rates for groups older than 60 were uniform ly underprojected. Some age groups were harder to project than others. The two age groups with the largest boxes w ere those 18 and 19 and 65 to 69. The latter group had the m ost extrem e errors. However, the extreme errors for those 65 to 69 were high— for A sian and other m en in the 1986 projection and A sian and other wom en in the 1988 projection. Labor force At this point, it is clear that the labor force participation rate projections were, as a group, too high. However, the aggregate labor force was fairly accurately projected. As new labor force projections were review ed w ithin BLS, the review ers have an independent estim ate of the aggregate labor force and em ploym ent, which contributes to a more accurate overall labor force. In the face of low population projections, labor force participation rates were increased, resulting in an accurate projection of the labor force. Sex and race or Hispanic origin. H istorically, BLS labor fo rce p ro je c tio n s have been c h a ra c te riz e d as h av in g projected labor force levels too high for m en and too low for women. However, for 3 of the 5 projections in this evaluation, the projected labor force for m en was lower than the actual. For women, all of the projected labor force levels were higher than the actual. Thus, the traditional view of b l s labor force projections is now wrong. For the two projections with the largest overall error, the male labor force was off by 2.2 m illion in 1986; w om en’s labor force was off by 1.4 m illion in 1990. In the projection with least overall error, m en and w om en’s errors offset. In any case, there does not seem to be a pattern of projecting labor force better for one gender than the other. Chart 1. Errors in 2000 for participation rates and labor force, by selected categories Percent Percent https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Participation rate error by projection Participation rate error by age group Percent Percent Monthly Labor Review October 2003 9 Evaluation of Labor Force Projections Box-and-whisker plots “A boxplot is a way to look at the overall shape of a set of data. The central box shows the data between the ‘hinges’ (roughly quartiles), with the median respresented by a line. ‘W hiskers’ go out to the extremes of the data, and very extrem e points are shown by them selves.” See W. N. Venables and B. D. Ripley, Modern Applied Statistics with S-PLUS, 2nd edition (New York, Springer, 1997), p. 172. The goal of box and whisker plotting is to examine distributions; in this case, the distribution of errors. The errors are centered on zero (that is, they have a median near zero). We would like them to be tightly distributed around zero. That means that the two quartiles would be near zero and the remaining errors would be near the upper and lower quartiles (the vertical lines would be short). We would like no outliers, however, they do exist in this analysis, and provide an interesting discussion. The heavy white line in each box is the median. The upper and lower edges of the box are the quartiles or hinges. The horizontal lines above and below the box indicate the maximum and minimum values. The following tabulation shows mean absolute percent er rors for various aggregations: Projection for 2000 made in— 1986 1992 1994 1988 1990 A ggregate e r r o r ......... M ean absolute p erc e n t errors for— S ex ............................ R a c e ........................ Sex and r a c e .......... 1.5 0.2 1.5 0.7 0.6 1.4 6.2 6.3 Sex, race, and age... 15.4 1.5 5.9 5.6 1.5 4.7 5.5 .8 3.4 4.1 12.3 9.1 .7 3.9 4.0 7.5 8.5 The first row of the tabulation substantiates the information from this section’s overview. Once gender is taken into account, the 1988 projection error increases. The 1988 projection had a highly accurate projection of the level, but the labor force level was too low for men and too high for women. The accuracy of overall projections is the result of offsetting errors. The other four projections did not have large offsetting errors by sex. The more detailed measures reveal where the errors were made. Thus, taking race and Hispanic origin into account increases the error because less of the offset is concealed. In the 1988 and 1990 projections, the projected white labor force was too large, compared with those of the black and Asian and other groups, for which the labor force was projected too low. The 1994 projection accurately projected the white labor force, but that for blacks was almost a million low. For all the projections, 10 Monthly Labor Review October 2003 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Hispanics were underprojected, by substantial amounts. Taking race and gender into account, the error in the 1994 projection rises because the accuracy of the white labor force level is due to sizable offsetting errors in the labor force levels of men and women. Once age, sex, race (and Hispanic origin) are taken into account, the errors increase, as offsetting errors of having some ages too high and others too low are taken into account. This shows the pattern of error decreasing from the 1986 projection to the 1992 projection, then increasing for the 1994 projection. However, the accuracy of the overall labor force was obtained through offsetting errors. Age, sex, or race and Hispanic origin. Table 6 summarizes the cumulative errors for 108 categories of the labor force, ranked from most negative to most positive. The median of the individual errors are all small, but negative. The low quartiles or hinges are all negative and the high hinges are all positive— the errors are grouped around zero. The innerquartile range decreased from the 1986 projection to the 1992 projection, before a slight increase for the 1994 projection. However, the range and the inner 75 percent show a decrease through 1994. The errors for the 1994 projection were systematic, but not large. The white population and labor force is significantly larger than the black, Hispanic, or Asian and other population and labor forces. Thus, the largest numerical errors are in white groups. For the 1986 through 1992 projections, the group with the largest overprojection was white women ages 35 to 39. For the 1994 projection, white women ages 40 to 44 had the greatest error. By comparison, for the first four projections, white men ages 20 to 24 were underprojected the most. For the 1994 projection, Hispanic men ages 25 to 34 were the group most underprojected. The older labor force had the greatest relative errors. The labor force for these ages is small, so a modest numerical error | Summary of errors in the components of the labor force for 5 years of the 2000 projection [In thousands] Error 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 -326 -97 -43 -6 13 61 765 -290 -100 -59 -13 4 26 230 55 158 1,091 64 126 520 D ep th Lowest............... Lowest eighth..... Lowest quarter.... Half (median)...... Highest quarter ... Highest eighth.... Highest.............. -518 -244 -93 -1 6 0 39 712 -543 -140 -75 -14 9 55 772 Inner 50 percent... Inner 75 percent... Range ................ 94 282 1,230 84 195 1,315 -372 -118 -62 -4 21 97 563 Dispersion 84 215 935 yields a large relative error. (See chart 1, bottom panel for relative errors by age group.) For those age groups with high labor force participation, the relative errors had a median of zero and the errors were closely grouped around the median. The labor force participation rate projections at the older ages, which were too low for older men, had negative median errors and wide dispersion around the median. Thus, the greatest errors in the labor force were at ages with modest impact on the size o f the labor force.5 wmutmmm High a n d low a lte rn a tiv e s of th e la b o r fo rc e for 5 ye a rs th e 2 00 0 p ro je c tio n High a lte rn a tiv e Projection for 2000 m a d e in— 1986.................. 1988.................. 1990.................. 1992.................. 1994.................. Low a lte rn a tiv e Labor fo rc e Participation Labor fo rc e P articipation (thousands) rate (thousands) rate 141.1 146.8 156.2 156.5 153.4 68.0 70.7 71.5 70.1 68.7 134.5 137.7 141.8 147.3 143.6 65.7 67.3 66.1 67.3 65.5 140.9 67.2 140.9 67.2 A c tu a l Distribution 1994.................. For some users, the size and growth rate of the labor force is unimportant; the concern is for the distribution between men and women, among the various race and ethnic groups, or among the various age groups. The text tabulation (page 10) presents the index of dissimilarity comparing the projections to the 2000 actual, by various levels of aggregation. Projection for 2000 made in— Index o f d issim ilarity by— 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 S ex ............................................. R a c e ......................................... R ace and s e x ......................... 0.7 .6 1.3 0.8 .8 1.5 0.3 .7 1.0 0.3 .5 .9 0.4 .6 .9 Race, sex, and a g e .................. 3.3 2.6 2.0 1.9 1.3 reasonably expect the 2000 labor force to be between the low and high alternatives. Unlike projections for earlier years, some of these alternative projections did not cover the actual. (See table 7.) Only the projections prepared in 1986 bracketed or covered both the actual 2000 labor force and the particip atio n rate. G iven the characteristics of the projections with the labor force levels more accurately projected than the labor force participation rates, one would expect that the labor force projections would cover the actual and the labor force participation rates would not. For three of the projections, the low alternative labor force was higher than the 2000 actual. This happened for only two of the labor force participation rate projections. The 1992 projection was the only one to have neither the labor force or participation rate confidence interval cover the actual. Every possible combination of covering and not covering occurred am ong the five projections. Evaluations of projections to earlier years indicated that the actual labor force projection was covered by the alternatives. The index of dissimilarity may be interpreted as the amount the one distribution has to change to be like another. In these cases, it records how much the projected distribution has to change to be like the actual 2000 labor force distribution. Thus, the 1986 projection would have had to change by 0.7 of a percentage point to reflect the actual distribution of the labor force between men and women. The projections were also quite good in reflecting the actual composition of the labor force by race. Taking race and gender into account, there is a higher index of dissimilarity (or greater error) than when considering race or only sex. However, in the worst year, 1988, the distribution would have only needed to change by 1.5 percentage points. Once race, sex, and age are all taken into account, the indexes increase again; however, they improve with time, as the worst year, 1986, is 3.3 percent and the best year, 1994, is 1.3 percent. Even though the older labor force was underprojected, the age composition of the labor force was fairly well projected. T h e p r o c e s s o f r e v i e w i n g labor force projections helps provide a picture of the strengths and weaknesses of the BLS labor force projections model. Over time, this allows for im p ro v em en ts in th at m o d el. F aced w ith p o p u la tio n projections that were too low, b l s made subtle adjustments in the labor force participation rate for the labor force ages 30 to 64, resu ltin g in som ew hat high aggregate labor force participation rates. For users of the labor force projections who needed projections of the size of the total labor force or of its growth rate, this projection would have served them well. For users of projected labor force participation rates, the problem was with projections for older workers, whose rates were too low. □ Alternatives and confidence intervals Notes For each of the five labor force projections, b l s prepared three alternatives (low moderate and high). This analysis focuses on the middle or moderate alternative because BLS presents the middle alternative in its presentations. However, a user could https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1 Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “Labor force projections: 1986 to 2000,” September 1987, pp. 19-29. Reprinted with additional detail in P r o j e c t i o n s 2 0 0 0 , b l s Bulletin 2302, March 1988. Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “New labor force projections, spanning 1988 to 2 0 0 0 ,” M o n t h l y L a b o r R e v i e w , Novem ber 1989, pp. 3 -1 2 . M o n th ly L a b o r R e v i e w , Monthly Labor Review October 2003 11 Evaluation of Labor Force Projections Reprinted with additional detail in O u tlo o k 2 0 0 0 , b l s Bulletin 2352, April 1990. Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “Labor force projections: the baby boom moves on,” M o n th ly L a b o r R e v i e w , November 1991, pp. 31-44. Reprinted with additional detail in O u t l o o k 1 9 9 0 - 2 0 0 5 , b l s Bulletin 2402, May 1992. Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “Another look at the labor force,” M o n th ly L a b o r R e v ie w , November 1993, pp. 31-40. Reprinted with additional detail in T h e A m e r ic a n W o rk F o r c e : 1 9 9 2 2 0 0 5 , b l s Bulletin 2452, April 1994. Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “The 2005 labor force: growing, but slo w ly ,” M o n t h l y L a b o r R e v i e w , November 1995, pp. 29-44. 2 Howard N Fullerton, Jr., “Evaluating the 1995 b l s labor force projections,” P r o c e e d i n g s o f th e S e c t i o n o n G o v e r n m e n t S t a t i s t i c s a n d S e c tio n o n S o c i a l S ta t is tic s (Alexandria, v a , American Statistical A ssociation , 1997), pp. 394—99; Howard N, Fullerton, Jr., “An evaluation of labor force projections to 1990,” M o n th ly L a b o r R e v ie w , August 1992, pp. 3-14; Howard N, Fullerton, Jr., “An evaluation of labor force projections to 1985,” M o n th ly L a b o r R e v i e w , November 1988, pp. 7-17; Howard N, Fullerton, Jr., “How accurate were the 1980 labor force projections?,” M o n th ly L a b o r R e v ie w , July 1982, pp. 15-21; Paul M. Ryscavage, “ b l s labor force projections: a review of methods and results,” M o n th ly L a b o r R e v i e w , April 1979, pp. 15-22; 12 Monthly Labor Review October 2003 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis and Marc Rosenblum, “On the accuracy of labor force projections,” October 1972, pp. 22-29. M o n th ly L a b o r R e v i e w , 3 Projections of the Population of the United States by Age, Sex and Race: 1987 to 2080, C u r r e n t P o p u l a t i o n R e p o r t s , Series P -25, no. 1018 (Bureau of the Census, 1989). Projections of the Population of the United States by Age, Sex and Race: 1993 to 2050, C u r r e n t P o p u l a t i o n R e p o r t s , Series P -25, No. 1104 (Bureau of the Census, 1993). Projections of the Population of the United States by Age, Sex and Race: 1995 to 2050, C u r r e n t P o p u la tio n R e p o r ts , Series P-25, no. 1130 (Bureau of the Census, 1995). 4 Tammany Mulder, “Accuracy of the U.S. Census Bureau National Population Projections and Their Respective Components of Change,” Population Division Working Paper No. 50 (Bureau o f the Census, forthcoming). 5 This is confirmed if a box and whisker chart o f the errors in thousands is examined. If a user were particularly interested in the labor force participation o f older workers or the size o f their labor force, this set of projections would have been relatively unhelpful. Projections Evaluation Evaluating th e BLS 1988-2000 em p lo ym en t projections employment projections for the period from 1988 to 2000 were borne out in most broad occupations; the chief source o f error was the projection o f changes in staffing patterns, attributable primarily to the conservative nature of the projections bls Andrew Alpert and Jill Auyer he b l s o c c u p a tio n a l em p lo y m en t projections developed for the 1988-2000 period were reasonably accurate, correctly capturing most general occupational trends. As with previous evaluations, however, the inac curacies that surfaced reflected a conservative tilt to the projections. The primary source of error was the projection of changes in the utilization of occupations by industry, or staffing patterns, rather than the projections of industry employ ment themselves. T to see whether employment in occupations that were projected to grow or decline actually did so .1 F inally, because the 1 9 8 8-2000 occupational employm ent projections were the b a sis fo r jo b o u tlo o k in fo rm a tio n presented in the 1990-91 editio n o f the Occupational Outlook Handbook, the ac curacy of the projections was assessed in term s of the assum ptions m ade about the factors affecting em ploym ent grow th or decline. Evaluation measures Andrew Alpert and Jill Auyer are econom ists in the Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections, Bureau o f Labor Statistics. E-mail: alpert.andrew@bls.gov or auyer.jill@bls.gov https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis In the study presented in this article, several different measures were used to assess the ac curacy o f the projections for both m ajor oc cupational groups and detailed occupations. Among the various measures, the most traditional involved comparing actual with projected em ployment in terms of percent change, numerical growth, and share of employment growth between 1988 and 2000. An absolute percent error— the absolute value of the numerical error divided by actual em ploym ent in the target year o f the projection— was calculated for all major groups and detailed occupations. The actual and pro jected directions of change also were compared, Major occupational groups Total em ploym ent grew by 21.7 percen t between 1988 and 2000, slightly faster than the 15.3 percent that had been projected. The difference is largely the result of an under projection of total employment by about 7.6 m illion. The direction of the em ploym ent change was anticipated correctly for all but one of the nine major groups. Employment in eight of the nine groups was underestimated. (See table 1.) A ll but three of the m ajor groups had absolute percent errors of less than 10 percent. The category of agriculture, forestry, fishing, Monthly Labor Review October 2003 13 Projections Evaluation Table 1. Employment, by major occupational group, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual [Numbers in thousands] Total e m p lo y m e n t P e rc e n t c h a n g e , 19 88-2000 A c tu a l 2000 P ro je c te d 20 00 O c c u p a tio n 1988 Total, all occupations............... Executive, administrative, and managerial.......................... Professional specialty................ Technicians and related support... Marketing and sales.................... Administrative support, including clerical........................ Service....................................... Agriculture, foresty, fishing, and related................................ Precision production, craft, and repair.................................. Operators, fabricators, and laborers.............................. Share (percent) Level Level Share (p ercen t) Pro je c te d A c tu a l N u m e r ical erro r, 2000 A bsolute (p ro p e rc e n t je c te d erro r, level 20001 minus a c tu a l lev el) S hare of to ta l jo b g r o w th ,1 9 8 8 -2 0 0 0 (p e rc e n t) Pro je c te d A c tu a l 118,104 136,211 100.0 143,786 100.0 15.3 21.7 -7,575 5.3 100.0 100.0 12,297 14,568 3,919 12,109 15,006 18,070 5,146 14,535 11.0 13.3 3.8 10.7 14,995 20,360 5,202 15,485 10.4 14.2 3.6 10.8 22.0 24.0 31.3 20.0 21.9 39.8 32.8 27.9 11 -2,290 -56 -950 .1 11.2 1.1 6.1 15.0 19.3 6.8 13.4 10.5 22.5 5.0 13.1 22,080 18,479 24,698 22,651 18.1 16.6 25,564 23,160 17.8 16.1 11.9 22.6 15.8 25.3 -865 -509 3.4 2.2 14.5 23.0 13.6 18.2 3,503 3,334 2.4 3,998 2.8 ^t.8 14.1 -664 16.6 -.9 1.9 14,427 15,866 11.6 16,022 11.1 10.0 11.1 -156 1.0 7.9 6.2 16,721 16,904 12.4 19,000 13.2 1.1 13.6 -2,097 11.0 1.0 8.9 1The absolute percent error is calculated as the numerical error (positive or negative), divided by actual employment in the target year of the projection. and related occupations had the highest error of any major group, 16.6 percent. Professional specialty occupations and operators, fabricators, and laborers also had relatively high errors, 11.2 percent and 11.0 percent, respectively. The group with the lowest absolute error, 0.1 percent, was executive, administrative, and managerial occupations. Five o f the nine major groups had absolute errors below 5 percent. O f the five, the category of executive, administrative, and managerial occupations not only was the most accurately projected m ajor group, but also was the lone group for which em ploym ent was overprojected. Technicians and related support occupations and precision production, craft, and repair occupations also had very low errors, 1.1 percent and 1.0 percent, respectively. The absolute percent error was 2.2 percent for service occupations and 3.4 percent for adminis trative support occupations. In addition to making reasonably accurate employment projections at the aggregate major group level, the Bureau projected the share o f total job growth of each group fairly accurately. For example, professional specialty occupations had the largest numerical error, off by more than 2 million workers, but still, the category’s share of total job growth was underprojected by only 3.2 percent. The largest difference in share of job growth was 7.9 percent, for operators, fab ricators, and laborers; the group’s growth was projected to be 1 percent, but actually was 8.9 percent. The gap was due mainly to an overestimation of the effects o f automation on the demand for workers. 14 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2003 Although agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occu pations had the highest employment projection error, at 16.6 percent, the group’s share of total job growth was under projected by only 2.8 percent. The group was projected to have a negative share of total job growth, but the share was actually positive. Finally, the share of total job growth ac counted for by executive, administrative, and management occupations, the most accurately projected group, was actu ally overprojected by 4.5 percent. Significant errors in the projections for detailed occu pations with sizable employment can have a substantial impact on the overall projections for their respective groups. For example, employment in professional specialty occupations was projected to increase 24 percent over the 1988-2000 period; however, employment actually grew by 39.8 percent. Thus, employment in the category was underprojected by more than 2 million workers. Underprojections for several large professional specialty occupations— college and university faculty, social workers, special-education teachers, and teach ers and instructors of vocational education and training— contributed significantly. In addition, an underprojection of computer-related employment by about 1 million workers had a substantial impact.2 O perators, fabricators, and laborers also were under projected by more than 2 million workers. Together, the two categories (that is, operators, fabricators, and laborers and professional specialty occupations) accounted for alm ost three-fifths of the total num erical projection error for all Table 2. Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual [Numbers in thousands! P ercen t c h a n g e , 1988-2000 Total em p lo y m e n t P ro je c te d 2 0 00 A c tu a l 2000 O c c u p a tio n 1988 Total, all occupations..... File clerks................... Property, real-estate, and community association managers. Directory assistance operators................... Credit checkers.......... Farmworkers................ Advertising, marketing, promotions, public relations, and sales managers.................. Mail clerks, except mail machine operators and postal service.... Guards........................ Surgical technologists. Stock clerks and order fillers......................... General managers and top executives.... Statistical clerks......... Engineering, natural science, and computer and information systems managers.... Maintenance repairers, general utility............ Pipelayers and pipelaying fitters........ Helpers, construction trades........................ Surveyors, cartog raphers, and photogrammetrists..... Air traffic controllers.... Drywall installers and finishers............. Bank tellers................. Title examiners, abstractors, and searchers........... Production, planning, and expediting clerks Librarians.................... Securities, commodities, and financial services sales agents............. Cooks, short order and fast food............ Architects, except landscape and naval... Machine feeders and offbearers.................. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Share (p ercen t) Pro je c te d A c tu a l A bsolute p e rc e n t error, sim ulated projections, 2000 N u m e r ical error, Absolute p e rc e n t 2000 Ratio of error, (pro a c tu a l je c te d original p r o je c industry level to tals tions, minus to p ro 2000' a c tu a l je c te d level) staffing p a tte rn S hare of to ta l jo b grow th, 19 88-2000 (p e rc e n t) R atio of a c tu a l staffing Pro p a tte rn A c tu a l to p ro je c te d je c te d industry to tals Level Share (percent) Level 118,104 263 136,211 290 100.00 .21 143,786 290 100.00 .20 15.3 10.2 21.7 10.2 -7,575 0 5.3 .0 0.0 12.1 5.3 10.6 225 267 .20 267 .19 19.0 18.9 0 .1 1.4 .3 .24 .17 33 35 938 26 44 785 .02 .03 .58 26 44 781 .02 .03 .54 -20.6 26.4 -16.3 -20.4 25.9 -16.7 0 0 3 .2 .4 .4 23.6 1.6 10.4 19.2 5.4 12.6 -.04 .05 -.85 -.03 .04 -.61 406 511 .37 508 .35 25.7 25.2 2 .5 18.1 7.0 .58 .40 136 795 35 137 1,050 55 .10 .77 .04 137 1,044 55 .09 .73 .04 1.2 32.2 56.4 .6 31.4 55.2 1 6 0 .6 .6 .8 12.6 53.7 7.0 11.1 14.2 7.2 .01 1.41 .11 .00 .97 .08 2,152 2,406 1.77 2,426 1.69 11.8 12.7 -20 .8 .8 1.8 1.40 1.07 3,030 77 3,509 76 2.58 .06 3,539 75 2.46 .05 15.8 -1.7 16.8 -2.6 -31 1 .9 .9 7.0 5.4 6.3 3.9 2.64 -.01 1.98 -.01 258 341 .25 344 .24 32.0 33.3 -3 1.0 2.1 5.3 .46 .33 1,080 1,282 .94 1,269 .88 18.7 17.5 12 1.0 5.4 6.3 1.11 .74 52 59 .04 59 .04 13.3 12.1 1 1.0 11.3 6.2 .04 .02 555 633 .46 640 .44 14.1 15.3 -7 1.0 9.6 10.5 .43 .33 40 27 45 31 .03 .02 45 31 .03 .02 10.9 15.5 12.2 16.9 -1 0 1.1 1.2 .4 5.1 4.4 6.9 .02 .02 .02 .02 152 522 178 546 .13 .40 176 555 .12 .39 16.9 4.6 15.4 6.2 2 -9 1.4 1.6 1.2 18.3 3.1 15.2 .14 .13 .09 .13 27 31 .02 32 .02 17.3 19.2 -1 1.6 13.4 13.7 .3 .02 229 143 250 157 .18 .12 254 160 .18 .11 9.4 10.0 11.2 12.0 -A -3 1.7 1.8 5.1 12.8 2.1 13.0 .12 .8 .10 .07 200 309 .23 315 .22 54.8 57.6 -6 1.8 1.5 3.1 .60 .45 630 719 .53 705 .49 14.1 12.0 14 1.9 6.3 3.8 .49 .29 86 107 .08 105 .07 24.7 22.3 2 2.0 4.1 1.8 .12 .07 249 218 .16 213 .15 -12.5 -14.2 4 2.0 2.8 1.0 -.17 -.14 Monthly Labor Review October 100.00 100.00 .15 .10 2003 15 Projections Evaluation I C o n tin u é e i—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual [Numbers in thousands] A c tu a l 2000 P ro je c te d 2000 O c c u p a tio n 1988 Machine-forming operators and tenders, metal and plastic........ Purchasing agents, except wholesale, retail, and farm products...................... Industrial machinery mechanics................... Firefighters.................... Plastic molding machine setters, setup operators, operators, and tenders................. Musicians, singers, and related workers........... Grinding, lapping, and buffing machine toolsetters and setup operators, metal and plastic.................. Operations research analysts...................... Sewing machine operators, nongarment................. Paralegals and legal assistants................... Designers, except........ interior designers........ Insurance adjusters, examiners, and investigators.............. Bakers, bread and pastry.......................... Registered nurses........ Real-estate appraisers ... Insulation workers........ Machinists..................... Aircraft mechanics and service technicians...... Painters and paperhangers ....................... Structural and reinforcing metal workers............ Food preparation workers....................... Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters.......... Farm managers............. Court clerks.................. Medical assistants........ Announcers................... Painters, transportation equipment.................... Payroll and timekeeping clerks.......................... Share (percent) Pro je c te d A c tu a l N u m e r ical erro r, 2000 (p ro je c te d level minus a c tu a l level) Absolute p e rc e n t R atio of erro r, original a c tu a l p r o je c industry to tals tions, 20001 to p ro je c te d staffing p a tte rn R atio of a c tu a l staffing p a tte rn to p ro je c te d industry to tals S hare of to ta l jo b grow th, 19 88-2000 (p e rc e n t) Pro je c te d A c tu a l 15.5 -.10 -.06 1.8 .7 .17 .10 2.2 2.2 1.5 18.1 5.1 13.3 .41 .13 .25 .07 4 2.4 2.7 2.0 .18 .11 6.9 6 2.5 26.1 15.3 .12 .06 -2.1 .4 -2 2.5 1.4 4.6 -.1 .0 .06 55.4 51.5 2 2.6 5.8 9.7 .17 .11 131 .09 -5.6 -8.1 4 2.7 3.9 4.7 -.4 -.04 .11 141 .10 75.3 70.6 4 2.8 10.1 13.3 .34 0.23 301 .22 311 .22 27.4 31.5 -10 3.1 5.4 .6 .36 0.29 145 175 .13 180 .13 20.0 23.9 -6 3.2 4.4 1.8 .16 0.14 124 1,577 41 64 397 167 2,190 49 77 433 .12 1.61 .04 .06 .32 172 2,120 47 74 418 .12 1.47 .03 .05 .29 34.8 38.8 19.9 19.2 9.1 39.3 34.4 16.0 15.3 5.5 -5 70 2 2 14 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.3 3.4 7.3 3.4 8.9 5.6 9.4 4.4 1.4 5.1 5.2 4.1 .24 3.38 .04 .07 .20 0.19 2.11 .03 .04 .08 124 144 .11 140 .10 16.4 12.5 5 3.5 31.6 12.4 .11 .06 431 501 .37 484 .34 16.3 12.2 18 3.6 4.0 .9 .39 .20 78 92 .07 88 .06 18.2 14.0 3 3.7 17.3 11.4 .08 .04 1,027 1,260 .93 1,310 .91 22.8 27.5 -49 3.8 1.3 4.6 1.29 1.10 396 131 42 149 49 469 160 51 253 59 .34 .12 .04 .19 .04 451 154 53 263 56 .31 .04 .18 .04 18.4 22.1 21.4 70.1 19.2 14.0 17.6 26.4 77.1 14.4 17 6 -2 -10 2 3.9 3.9 3.9 4.0 4.2 14.0 21.4 10.3 1.0 .7 9.6 11.2 12.8 4.0 5.0 .40 .16 .05 .58 .05 .22 .09 .04 .45 .03 46 45 .03 43 .03 -3.5 -7.5 2 4.3 6.5 3.8 -.01 -.01 176 172 .13 180 .12 -2.4 2.1 -8 4.4 4.0 7.2 -.02 .01 Level Share (percent) Level 184 166 .12 169 .12 -10.0 -8.1 -3 2.0 10.3 206 236 .17 231 .16 14.6 12.2 5 2.2 463 233 538 257 .40 .19 526 251 .37 .17 16.2 10.3 13.7 7.9 12 6 144 176 .13 172 .12 22.2 19.2 229 251 .18 245 .17 9.5 72 70 .05 72 .05 55 85 .06 83 143 135 .10 83 145 236 . Monthly Labor Review 16 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis A bsolute p e rc e n t error, sim ulated projections, 2000 P ercen t c h a n g e , 1988-2000 Total e m p lo y m e n t October 2003 .11 Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual [Numbers in thousands] P ro je c te d 20 00 A c tu a l 2000 O c c u p a tio n 1988 Level Janitors and cleaners, including maids and housekeeping cleaners...................... Recreational therapists .. Artists and commercial artists.......................... Coating, painting, and spraying machine operators, tenders, setters, and setup operators..................... College and university faculty......................... Paving, surfacing, and tamping equipment operators..................... Sheet metal workers and duct installers....... Computer programmers... Baggage porters and bellhops................ Taxi drivers and chauffeurs........... Freight, stock, and material movers, hand............................ Systems analysts.......... Woodworking machine operators and tenders, setters and setup operators.................... Punching machine setters and setup operators, metal and plastic.................. Pest control workers...... Chemists....................... Postal mail carriers........ Human resources assistants, except payroll and time keeping ....................... Billing, cost, and rate clerks................... Dispatchers, except police, fire, and ambulance................... Textile bleaching and dyeing machine operators and tenders .. Crossing guards........... Veterinarians................. Office machine and cash register servicers..................... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Share (percent) Level A bsolute p e rc e n t error, sim ulated projections, 2000 P ercen t c h a n g e , 1988-2000 Total e m p lo y m e n t Share (percent) Pro je c te d A c tu a l Numer ical Absolute error, p e rc e n t 2000 Ratio of erro r, (p ro original a c tu a l je c te d p r o je c industry level to tals tions, minus 20001 to p ro a c tu a l je c te d level) staffing p a tte rn S h are of to ta l jo b grow th, 1988-2 000 (p e rc e n t) R atio of a c tu a l staffing Pro p a tte rn to p ro je c te d je c te d industry to tals A c tu a l 2,895 26 3,450 35 2.53 .03 3,300 37 2.30 .03 19.2 36.9 14.0 43.5 150 -2 4.5 4.6 8.7 6.6 4.2 2.5 3.07 .05 1.58 .04 216 274 .20 287 .20 27.1 33.2 -13 4.6 .4 3.5 .32 .28 113 123 .09 129 .09 9.0 14.5 -6 4.8 2.3 2.7 .06 .06 846 869 .64 913 .64 2.8 8.0 -45 4.9 11.6 14.8 .13 .26 70 82 .06 78 .05 16.6 11.2 4 4.9 19.6 12.2 .06 .03 246 257 .19 245 .17 4.3 -.6 12 5.0 17.3 10.9 .06 -.01 519 769 .56 731 .51 48.1 40.9 37 5.1 27.5 22.8 1.38 .83 32 40 .03 43 .03 25.9 33.0 -2 5.3 4.6 4.4 .05 .04 109 137 .10 130 .09 26.0 19.4 7 5.4 11.4 13.2 .16 .08 884 403 905 617 .66 .45 858 653 .60 .45 2.4 53.3 -2.9 62.2 47 -36 5.5 5.5 14.7 3.8 11.1 11.3 .12 1.18 -.10 .97 69 75 .06 80 .06 8.2 14.6 -4 5.6 2.0 3.8 .03 .04 51 50 .04 47 .03 -2.1 -7.3 3 5.6 12.5 7.5 -.01 -.01 48 80 285 56 93 310 .04 .07 .23 53 99 329 .04 .07 .23 16.5 16.7 8.8 10.2 23.8 15.5 3 -6 -19 5.7 5.7 5.8 1.7 13.4 7.7 2.6 4.6 2.1 .04 .07 .14 .02 .07 .17 129 141 .10 150 .10 9.4 16.3 -9 5.9 4.6 8.1 .07 .08 323 333 .24 355 .25 3.4 9.9 -21 6.0 2.9 5.7 .06 .12 137 160 .12 170 .12 16.5 23.9 -10 6.0 .8 9.7 .13 .13 26 57 46 23 61 57 .02 .04 .04 22 57 61 .01 .04 .04 -13.4 6.9 25.5 -18.3 .8 33.6 1 3 -4 6.0 6.0 6.0 13.4 23.0 11.4 23.0 14.3 15.2 -.02 .02 .06 -.02 .00 .06 56 57 .04 61 .04 1.3 7.8 -4 6.1 41.2 19.3 .00 .02 Monthly Labor Review October 2003 17 Projections Evaluation Continued —Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual [Numbers in thousands] P ercen t c h a n g e , 1988-2000 Total e m p lo y m e n t A c tu a l 2000 P ro je c te d 2000 O c c u p a tio n 1988 Level Paper goods machine setters and setup operators..................... Cooks, institution or cafeteria...................... Roofers......................... Civil engineers.............. Child care workers........ Loan and credit clerks .... Office clerks, general.... Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks...... Communication, transportation, and utilities operations managers.................... Loan counselors and officers................. Dietitians and nutritionists................. Millwrights..................... Industrial truck and tractor operators.... Hard-tile setters............ Teachers, secondary school ......................... Accountants and auditors................ Electromechanical equipment assemblers, precision..................... Retail salespersons....... Pharmacists.................. Aircraft pilots and flight engineers........... Physical therapists........ Grinders and polishers, hand............................ Coin, vending, and amusement machine servicers and repairers Inspectors, testers, and graders, precision.. Cement masons, concrete finishers, and terrazzo workers.... Bus drivers, school ....... Cleaners and servants, private household........ Psychologists............... Construction and building inspectors....... Combination machine tool setters, setup operators, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic.................. 18 Level A bsolute p e rc e n t error, R atio of original a c tu a l p r o je c industry tions, to tals 20001 to p ro je c te d staffing p a tte rn R atio of a c tu a l staffing p a tte rn to p ro je c te d industry to tals S hare of to ta l jo b grow th, 19 88-2000 (p e rc e n t) Pro je c te d A c tu a l .04 4.7 11.5 -4 6.1 9.4 4.0 .01 .02 .31 9.3 27.0 10.5 36.6 19.5 26.7 27 -10 13 -59 12 -218 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.5 6.8 20.0 6.4 10.8 4.3 6.5 4.8 10.4 .9 5.3 5.0 8.1 9.0 .36 .13 .18 1.03 .23 2.51 .15 .13 .08 .95 2.62 Share (percent) Pro je c te d A ctud .04 60 .34 .16 .63 .14 2.18 440 156 206 915 180 3,192 .14 .64 .13 2.22 16.0 19.2 17.4 27.8 27.2 18.1 2,272 1.67 2,125 1.48 .9 -5.6 146 6.9 12.2 4.0 .11 -.49 167 194 .14 209 .15 16.3 25.3 -15 7.2 5.9 12.1 .15 .16 172 209 .15 225 .16 21.5 31.0 -16 7.2 13.7 3.4 .20 .21 40 77 51 90 .04 .07 55 84 .04 .06 27.8 17.3 37.8 9.2 -4 6 7.3 7.5 8.3 12.4 2.6 5.6 .06 .07 .06 .03 421 26 400 32 .29 .02 433 30 .30 .02 -5.1 22.4 2.8 13.7 -33 2 7.6 7.7 3.0 6.4 11.8 1.6 -.12 .03 .05 .01 1,164 1,388 1.02 1,506 1.05 19.2 29.4 -118 7.8 8.1 14.8 1.24 1.33 963 1,174 .86 1,089 .76 22.0 13.1 86 7.9 8.1 1.2 1.17 0.49 59 3,834 162 53 4,564 206 .04 3.35 .15 49 4,223 191 .03 2.94 .13 -9.9 19.0 26.9 -16.6 10.2 17.4 4 340 16 8.0 8.1 8.2 6.3 8.5 5.8 5.8 1.0 .5 -.03 4.03 .24 -.04 1.52 .11 83 68 108 107 .08 .08 100 117 .07 .08 30.9 57.0 20.9 71.4 8 -10 8.3 8.4 59.9 3.7 30.9 3.3 .14 .21 .07 .19 84 74 .05 80 .06 -12.6 -4.5 -7 8.5 4.4 3.2 -.06 -.01 27 27 .02 30 .02 .5 10.0 -3 8.6 21.2 23.6 .00 .01 676 634 .47 693 .48 -6.2 2.6 -60 8.6 11.7 2.3 -.23 .07 114 349 134 418 .10 146 458 .10 .32 16.9 19.9 27.9 31.3 -13 -40 8.6 8.7 14.7 7.9 17.5 15.5 .11 .31 .38 .12 .43 477 104 464 132 .34 .10 509 145 .35 .10 -2.6 27.0 6.7 39.5 -45 -13 8.8 9.0 25.2 8.1 22.0 .3 -.07 .16 .12 .16 56 64 .05 70 .05 14.2 25.7 -6 9.2 6.3 10.0 .04 .06 89 97 .07 107 .07 9.1 20.3 -10 9.3 1.8 5.7 .04 .07 54 56 403 123 186 670 151 2,519 467 147 219 856 192 2,974 2,252 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Share (percent) N um erical erro r, 2000 (p ro je c te d level minus a c tu a l level) A bsolute p e rc e n t error, s im u la te d projections, 2000 .11 October 2003 .11 .11 Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual [Numbers in thousands] P e rc e n t c h a n g e , 1988-2000 Total e m p lo y m e n t P ro je c te d 2000 A c tu a l 2000 O c c u p a tio n Pro je c te d 1988 Data entry keyers.......... Respiratory therapists .... Insurance policy processing clerks........ Truckdrivers, light and heavy ................... Welfare eligibility workers and interviewers................. Opticians, dispensing.... Police patrol officers...... Supervisors, farming, forestry, and agricuturalrelated occupations..... Electricians................... Cement and gluing machine operators and tenders................. Waiters and waitresses................... Electrolytic plating machine setters, setup operators, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic.................. Cooks, restaurant.......... Financial managers........ Clinical laboratory technologists and technicians.................. Painting, coating, and decorating workers, hand............................ Physician assistants..... Legal secretaries.......... Food counter, fountain, and related workers..... Duplicating, mail, and other office machine operators..................... Farm equipment mechanics................... Meat, poultry, and fish cutters and trimmers, hand............................ Heating, air-conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers..................... Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants........... Carpenters.................... Weighers, measurers, checkers, and samplers, recordkeeping............. Meter readers, utilities ... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis A c tu a l N u m er ical erro r, 2000 (pro je c te d level minus a c tu a l level) S hare of to ta l jo b grow th, 19 88-2000 (p e rc e n t) A bsolute p e rc e n t error, sim ulated projections, 2000 Absolute p e rc e n t erro r, R atio of original a c tu a l p r o je c industry tions, to tals 2000' to p ro je c te d staffing p a tte rn R atio of a c tu a l staffing p a tte rn to p ro je c te d industry to tals Pro je c te d A c tu a l 18.9 7.8 -.14 .13 .07 .12 5.1 4.5 .08 -.01 9.9 3.4 6.8 2.04 2.62 -11 -7 -46 9.9 9.9 9.9 3.2 3.4 4.4 4.6 7.2 12.8 .06 .09 .30 .09 .09 .39 17.6 31.5 -9 -74 10.2 10.4 10.0 6.0 12.9 16.6 .02 .53 .05 .66 -11.1 -19.5 3 10.5 7.8 .1 -.02 -.03 1.47 30.9 18.4 223 10.5 16.0 4.6 3.04 1.28 46 816 724 .03 .57 .50 -7.9 27.2 19.3 3.1 42.5 7.7 -5 -88 78 10.7 10.8 10.8 6.5 7.6 12.9 6.5 3.5 3.3 -.02 .86 .72 .01 .95 .20 .21 324 .23 19.2 33.9 -36 11.0 15.7 5.3 .26 .32 43 62 329 .03 .05 .24 39 69 296 .03 .05 .21 -4.4 28.1 25.5 -13.9 44.0 12.7 4 -8 34 11.0 11.1 11.3 9.0 8.5 4.6 5.3 3.0 15.3 -.01 .07 .37 -.02 .08 .13 1,626 1,866 1.37 2,108 1.47 14.7 29.6 -242 11.5 7.7 4.0 1.32 1.88 164 181 .13 205 .14 10.5 24.8 -24 11.5 .4 6.1 .09 .16 54 55 .04 49 .03 1.4 -9.1 6 11.5 29.1 67.9 .00 -.02 110 129 .09 145 .10 16.6 31.9 -17 11.6 5.3 15.7 .10 .14 Level Share (percent) Level 452 56 426 79 .31 .06 471 87 .33 .06 -5.6 41.3 4.2 56.3 -44 -8 9.4 9.6 17.1 15.8 171 186 .14 170 .12 8.8 -.9 17 9.8 2,399 2,768 2.03 3,072 2.14 15.4 28.0 -303 91 49 367 102 65 421 .07 .05 .31 113 72 467 .08 .05 .32 12.0 31.5 14.7 24.3 45.9 27.3 76 542 80 638 .06 .47 89 712 .06 .50 5.6 17.8 40 36 .03 32 .02 1,786 2,337 1.72 2,115 44 572 673 41 728 802 .03 .53 .59 242 288 45 48 263 Share (percent) 225 263 .19 298 .21 16.8 32.4 -35 11.8 6.3 6.9 .21 .28 1,184 1,081 1,562 1,257 1.15 .92 1,393 1,120 .97 .78 31.9 16.2 17.7 3.6 168 136 12.1 12.2 11.5 14.3 .5 3.9 2.09 .97 .82 .15 40 49 45 45 .03 .03 52 51 .04 .04 12.2 -8.8 28.0 4.2 -6 -6 12.3 12.4 8.9 18.7 5.4 10.4 .03 -.02 .04 .01 Monthly Labor Review October 2003 19 Projections Evaluation Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual [Numbers in thousands] P ro je c te d 2 0 00 A c tu a l 2000 O c c u p a tio n 1988 Level Automotive mechanics and service technicians.................. Recreation workers........ Geologists, geophysicists, and oceanographers.... Human resources managers.................... Lawyers......................... Photographers............... Private detectives and investigators........ Blue-collar worker supervisors................. Stationary engineers...... Textile drawout and winding machine operators and tenders .. Interviewing clerks, except personnel and social welfare........ Laborers, landscaping and groundskeeping.... Cutting and slicing machine setters, operators, and tenders................. Government chief executives and legislators.................... Automotive body and related repairers.... Mobile heavy equipment mechanics................... Hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists........... Receptionists and information clerks........ Flight attendants........... Optometrists................. Extruding and forming machine setters, operators, and tenders. Water and liquid waste treatment plant and system operators..................... Biological scientists....... Secretaries, except legal and medical......... Physicians.................... Printing press machine setters, operators, and tenders................. 20 Level Share (percent) Pro je c te d A c tu a l N u m e r ical erro r, 2000 (p ro je c te d level minus a c tu a l lev el) Absolute p e rc e n t erro r, R atio of original a c tu a l p r o je c industry tions, to tals 20001 to p ro je c te d staffing p a tte rn S hare of to ta l jo b grow th, 19 88-2000 (p e rc e n t) Ratio of a c tu a l staffing Pro p a tte rn A c tu a l to p ro je c te d je c te d industry to tals 771 186 898 221 .66 .16 798 252 .56 .18 16.3 18.9 3.5 35.8 99 -32 12.4 12.5 13.8 .7 1.5 11.3 .70 .19 .10 .26 42 49 .04 44 .03 15.7 2.7 6 12.6 11.1 .1 .04 .00 171 582 94 208 763 111 .15 .56 .08 239 676 128 .17 .47 .09 22.1 31.0 17.5 40.0 16.0 35.3 -31 87 -17 12.8 12.9 13.2 10.0 1.6 61.1 6.8 11.0 3.6 .21 1.00 .09 .27 .36 .13 47 61 .04 54 .04 30.8 15.5 7 13.2 24.4 2.7 .08 .03 1,797 36 1,930 36 1.42 .03 2,237 31 1.56 .02 7.4 -1.3 24.5 -13.6 -307 4 13.7 14.2 12.0 11.5 2.7 1.3 .73 .00 1.71 -.02 227 197 .14 172 .12 -13.3 -24.2 25 14.3 2.7 18.6 -.17 -.21 129 152 .11 133 .09 17.8 2.9 19 14.4 32.6 6.4 .13 .01 806 998 .73 1,166 .81 23.8 44.6 -168 14.4 1.0 14.6 1.06 1.40 91 80 .06 93 .06 -12.2 2.7 -14 14.5 15.4 3.7 -.06 .01 69 71 .05 84 .06 3.0 20.7 -12 14.7 1.5 13.7 .01 .06 214 270 .20 235 .16 26.2 10.0 35 14.7 18.4 2.7 .31 .08 108 124 .09 108 .07 14.4 -.4 16 14.9 6.5 31.7 .09 .00 609 683 .50 594 .41 12.1 -2.5 89 15.0 9.2 4.9 .41 -.06 833 88 37 1,164 123 43 .85 .09 .03 1,370 106 37 .95 .07 .03 39.8 38.7 16.5 64.5 20.5 1.1 -206 16 6 15.0 15.1 15.3 3.0 81.6 20.1 8.5 36.0 2.5 1.83 .19 .03 2.09 .07 .00 100 106 .08 125 .09 6.3 25.5 -19 15.3 8.3 8.2 .03 .10 76 57 87 72 .06 .05 103 85 .07 .06 14.5 26.0 35.5 49.2 -16 -13 15.5 15.6 1.0 19.1 14.3 6.0 .06 .08 .11 .11 2,903 535 3,288 684 2.41 .50 2,845 591 1.98 .41 13.2 27.8 -2.0 10.4 443 93 15.6 15.7 30.8 14.0 10.5 1.1 2.12 .82 -.23 .22 108 119 .09 141 .10 9.5 30.1 -22 15.9 16.1 4.6 .06 .13 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Share (percent) A bsolute p e rc e n t error, s im u la te d projections, 2000 P e rc e n t c h a n g e , 1988-2000 Total e m p lo y m e n t October 2003 Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual [Numbers In thousands] P ercen t c h a n g e , 1988-2000 Total e m p lo y m e n t P ro je c te d 20 00 A c tu a l 2000 O c c u p a tio n Pro je c te d 1988 Level New-accounts clerks, banking....................... Bus drivers, transit and intercity................ Bricklayers, blockmasons, and stonemasons........ Hotel, motel, and resort desk clerks . Welders and cutters...... Highway maintenance workers....................... Police and detective supervisors................ Library assistants and bookmobile drivers....... Tire repairers and changers.............. Budget analysts........... Driver/sales workers...... Dentists......................... Construction managers... Court reporters, medical transcriptionists, and stenographers....... Counselors.................... Public-relations specialists................... Railroad conductors and yardmasters.......... Logging equipment operators..................... Science and mathematics technicians.................. Bus and truck mechanics and diesel engine specialists........ Inspectors and compliance officers, except construction..... Billing and posting clerks and machine operators..................... Numerical control machine tool operators and tenders, metal and plastic.................. Tool and die makers....... Chemical engineers....... Couriers and messengers................ Education administrators............. Firefighting and pre vention supervisors..... Dental assistants.......... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Share (percent) Level A c tu a l Share (percent) A b s o lu te p e rc e n t error, s im u la te d N u m er projections, ical 2000 erro r, Absolute p e rc e n t 2000 erro r, (p ro je c te d original R atio of R atio of p r o je c a c tu a l a c tu a l level industry tions, staffing minus 20001 p a tte rn to tals a c tu a l to p ro to p ro level) je c te d je c te d staffing industry p a tte rn to tals S h are of to ta l jo b grow th, 1988-2 000 (p e rc e n t) Proje c te d A c tu a l 108 129 .09 111 .08 19.0 2.5 18 16.2 2.4 14.8 .11 .01 157 175 .13 210 .15 11.7 33.8 -35 16.5 5.7 19.6 .10 .21 167 193 .14 166 .12 15.8 -.6 27 16.5 14.4 1.9 .15 .00 113 325 142 309 .10 .23 170 371 .12 .26 25.9 -5.0 51.0 14.1 -28 -62 16.7 16.7 18.8 11.5 2.5 6.8 .16 -.09 .22 .18 175 190 .14 163 .11 8.7 -6.9 27 16.7 34.6 12.3 .08 -.05 88 97 .07 116 .08 10.1 32.3 -20 16.8 4.9 11.4 .05 .11 105 111 .08 133 .09 5.8 27.2 -22 16.8 4.2 14.0 .03 .11 88 62 242 167 100 72 255 189 .07 .05 .19 .14 85 61 308 161 .06 .04 .21 .11 14.1 16.5 5.4 13.1 -2.6 -.6 27.4 -3.7 15 11 -53 28 17.1 17.2 17.3 17.5 20.3 15.5 13.6 22.6 2.1 1.0 4.8 2.7 .07 .06 .07 .12 -.01 .00 .26 -.02 187 236 .17 287 .20 26.0 53.1 -51 17.7 8.8 5.7 .27 .39 159 124 122 157 .09 .12 104 191 .07 .13 -22.8 26.9 -34.4 54.3 18 -34 17.7 17.7 28.0 4.7 .6 15.1 -.20 .18 -.21 .26 91 105 .08 128 .09 15.4 40.2 -23 17.7 20.1 7.1 .08 .14 27 21 .02 26 .02 -19.5 -2.1 -5 17.8 16.1 1.9 -.03 .00 46 44 .03 53 .04 -5.3 15.3 -9 17.9 11.3 1.3 -.01 .03 232 275 .20 233 .16 18.6 .5 42 18.1 13.4 4.3 .24 .00 269 312 .23 264 .18 16.1 -1.8 48 18.3 20.8 .9 .24 -.02 130 148 .11 181 .13 13.9 39.3 -33 18.3 18.0 1.2 .10 .20 99 89 .07 109 .08 -9.5 10.7 -20 18.3 13.8 5.4 -.05 .04 64 152 49 70 159 57 .05 .12 .04 86 135 48 .06 .09 .03 9.2 4.5 16.4 33.7 -11.7 -1.7 -16 25 9 18.3 18.4 18.4 15.7 26.8 4.1 10.1 6.2 2.2 .03 .04 .04 .08 -.07 .00 123 147 .11 124 .09 19.4 .8 23 18.4 12.4 .3 .13 .00 320 382 .28 469 .33 19.4 46.6 -87 18.6 5.6 12.9 .34 .58 47 166 51 197 .04 .14 63 243 .04 .17 9.5 18.9 34.8 46.6 -12 -46 18.8 18.9 6.0 4.3 13.3 15.0 .02 .17 .06 .30 2003 21 Monthly Labor Review October Projections Evaluation Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual ________ [Numbers in thousands] P ro je c te d 2000 A c tu a l 2000 O c c u p a tio n 1988 Level Power-generating and reactor plant operators..................... Cost estimators............ Metal fabricators, structural metal products...................... Central office and installers and repairers...................... Refuse and recyclable material collectors...... Human resources, training, and labor relations specialists..... Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses ......................... Electrical power-line installers and repairers. Share (p e rc e n t) Level A bsolute p e rc e n t error, s im u la te d projections, 2000 P ercen t c h a n g e , 1988-2000 Total em p lo y m e n t Share (percent) Pro je c te d A c tu a l S hare of to ta l jo b grow th, 1988-2000 (p e rc e n t) N u m e r ical Absolute erro r, p e rc e n t R atio of R atio of 2000 erro r, a c tu a l a c tu a l (p ro original industry staffing je c te d p r o je c Pro to tals p a tte rn level tions, to p ro to p ro je c te d minus 2000’ je c te d je c te d a c tu a l staffing industry level) p a tte rn to tals A c tu a l 33 169 37 195 .03 .14 31 163 .02 .11 11.0 15.4 -6.8 -3.1 6 31 19.1 19.2 6.4 26.2 31.4 6.9 .02 .14 -.01 -.02 40 39 .03 48 .03 -2.2 21.5 -9 19.5 4.2 12.4 .00 .03 75 59 .04 50 .03 -20.6 -33.7 10 19.7 48.7 18.8 -.09 -.10 126 126 .09 105 .07 .1 -16.4 21 19.8 51.0 19.0 .00 -.08 252 305 .22 381 .26 21.2 51.2 -75 19.8 18.7 4.5 .30 .50 626 855 .63 713 .50 36.6 13.9 143 20.0 23.4 1.3 1.27 .34 104 122 .09 101 .07 16.8 -2.7 20 20.1 1.2 20.8 .10 -.01 49 56 58 68 .04 .05 48 85 .03 .06 17.6 21.2 -2.2 52.0 10 -17 20.2 20.3 32.7 14.2 7.3 1.6 .05 .07 .00 .11 89 86 .06 71 .05 -3.1 -19.5 14 20.3 29.8 9.8 -.02 -.07 61 73 238 2,310 414 225 66 81 309 2,614 506 269 .05 .06 .23 1.92 .37 .20 83 67 389 3,289 419 223 .06 .05 .27 2.29 .29 .16 8.9 11.2 30.2 13.2 22.1 19.8 36.7 -7.7 63.7 42.4 1.3 -.7 -17 14 -80 -675 86 46 20.4 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.5 20.7 12.8 12.8 5.9 20.5 27.2 11.6 6.8 8.0 22.5 .2 5.6 1.1 .03 .04 .40 1.68 .51 .25 .09 -.02 .59 3.81 .02 -.01 64 319 71 358 .05 .26 89 296 .06 .21 9.6 12.2 38.6 -7.3 -19 62 20.9 21.0 6.3 25.1 15.0 6.3 .03 .22 .10 -.09 49 57 .04 47 .03 17.5 -3.0 10 21.1 29.1 16.3 .05 -.01 385 495 .36 629 .44 28.5 63.1 -133 21.2 12.7 7.9 .61 .95 47 75 .05 95 .07 59.9 103.1 -20 21.3 25.7 1.7 .15 .19 136 42 117 47 .09 .03 149 59 .10 .04 -13.9 9.9 9.6 40.0 -32 -13 21.4 21.5 21.0 27.4 .5 2.6 -.10 .02 .05 .07 63 71 .05 90 .06 11.4 42.1 -19 21.6 28.2 4.1 .04 .10 1,183 54 1,319 59 .97 .04 1,683 76 1.17 .05 11.5 8.8 42.3 40.0 -364 -17 21.6 22.3 16.5 8.5 5.6 13.6 .75 .03 1.95 .08 99 86 .06 110 .08 -13.7 11.1 -25 22.4 12.1 10.9 -.08 .04 p b x Glaziers......................... Carpet installers........... Lathe and turning machine tool setters and setup operators, metal and plastic........ Detectives and criminal investigators............... Upholsterers.................. Teachers, preschool...... Cashiers........................ Bartenders.................... Mechanical engineers.... Dispatchers, police, fire, and ambulance..... Drafters......................... Photographic processing machine operators and tenders................. Social workers.............. Medical records and health information technicians.................. Crushing, grinding, mixing, and blending machine operators and tenders .. Procurement clerks....... Bindery machine operators and setup operators..................... Office and administrative support supervisors and managers............. Library technicians........ Welding machine setters, operators, and tenders................. 22 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2003 Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual [Numbers in thousands] P ercen t c h a n g e , 1988-2000 Total e m p lo y m e n t P ro je c te d 2000 A c tu a l 2000 O c c u p a tio n 1988 Level Butchers and meatcutters................. Food service and lodging managers......... Hosts and hostesses, restaurant, lounge, or coffee shop............ Cleaners of vehicles and equipment............ Clergy............................ Machine tool cutting operators and tenders, metal and plastic......... Industrial engineers, except safety engineers.................... Industrial production managers.................... Animal caretakers, except farm................. Order clerks.................. Brokerage clerks.......... Laundry and drycleaning machine operators and tenders, except pressing.......... Excavation and loading machine operators....... Claims examiners, property and casualty insurance................... Bakers, manufacturing ... Teachers, special education.................... Reservation and transportation ticket agents and travel clerks.......................... Conservation scientists and foresters.............. Insurance sales agents.. Physical therapy assistants and aides .... Administrative services managers.................... Electronics repairers, commercial and industrial equipment.................... Insurance claims clerks.......................... Solderers and brazers .... Head sawyers and sawing machine operators and tenders, setters, and setup operators..................... Dental hygienists.......... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Share (p e rc e n t) Level Share (percert) Pro je c te d A c tu a l N u m e r ical erro r, 2000 (p ro je c te d level minus a c tu a l lev el) Absolute p e rc e n t erro r, original p r o je c tions, 2000’ A bsolute p e rc e n t error, s im u la te d projections, 2000 S h are of to ta l jo b grow th, 1988-2 000 (p e rc e n t) R atio of Ratio of a c tu a l a c tu a l industry staffing Pro p a tte rn to tals A c tu a l je c te d to p ro to p ro je c te d je c te d staffing industry p a tte rn to tals 258 269 .20 219 .15 4.5 -14.8 50 22.7 22.9 .5 .06 -.15 560 721 .53 587 .41 28.8 4.8 134 22.8 21.4 .3 .89 .11 183 239 .18 310 .22 30.5 69.4 -71 23.0 19.6 4.4 .31 .50 215 185 230 199 .17 .15 299 162 .21 .11 7.0 7.2 38.9 -12.9 -69 37 23.0 23.0 2.9 75.9 17.2 34.0 .08 .07 .33 -.09 148 133 .10 108 .08 -10.1 -26.9 25 23.1 34.8 8.8 -.08 -.16 132 155 .11 126 .09 18.0 -4.2 29 23.2 9.2 5.9 .13 -.02 215 254 .19 206 .14 18.0 -4.3 48 23.2 20.7 .7 .21 -.04 92 106 .08 138 .10 15.5 50.5 -32 23.2 6.3 13.7 .08 .18 293 64 289 66 .21 .05 377 86 .26 .06 -1.5 3.1 28.7 34.9 -88 -20 23.4 23.5 18.4 15.7 7.3 9.3 -.02 .01 .33 .09 169 208 .15 168 .12 22.8 -1.0 40 24.1 18.6 4.6 .21 -.01 76 84 .06 111 .08 10.2 46.3 -27 24.7 20.7 6.0 .04 .14 30 41 37 40 .03 .03 49 53 .03 .04 23.5 -3.2 64.3 29.6 -12 -13 24.8 25.3 24.3 18.2 2.5 5.0 .04 -.01 .07 .05 275 317 .23 429 .30 15.6 56.1 -111 26.0 13.2 14.8 .24 .60 133 170 .12 230 .16 27.8 73.1 -60 26.2 6.2 27.4 .20 .38 27 423 30 481 .02 .35 40 378 .03 .26 8.3 13.7 47.9 -10.7 -11 103 26.7 27.3 30.6 15.2 1.1 8.3 .01 .32 .05 -.18 39 60 .04 82 .06 52.5 109.7 -22 27.3 25.8 1.4 .11 .17 217 274 .20 381 .27 26.2 75.4 -107 28.0 27.4 8.4 .31 .64 79 92 .07 72 .05 17.1 -8.9 20 28.6 28.8 4.9 .07 -.03 103 29 115 27 .08 .02 162 38 .11 11.0 -5.7 56.4 33.2 -47 -11 29.0 29.2 27.6 21.0 1.3 17.6 .06 -.01 .23 .04 80 91 86 107 .06 .08 66 152 7.5 17.6 -17.1 67.6 20 —45 29.6 29.8 37.7 16.8 6.1 15.5 .03 .09 -.05 .24 .03 .05 .11 Monthly Labor Review October 2003 23 Projections Evaluation Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual ________ [Numbers in thousands] A c tu a l 2000 P ro je c te d 2 0 00 O c c u p a tio n 1988 Level Proofreaders and copy markers............... Personal care and home health aides........ Drilling and boring machine tool setters and setup operators, metal and plastic.......... Textile machine setters and setup operators.... Chemical plant and system operators........ Radiologic technologists and technicians.......... Manicurists.................... Dental laboratory technicians, precision... Occupational therapists.................... Correctional officers...... Packaging and filling machine operators and tenders................. Electrical and electronic technicians and technologists.............. Crane and tower operators..................... Sheriffs and deputy sheriffs........................ Actors, directors, and producers............. Gas and petroleum plant and system occupations................ Teacher assistants........ Child care workers, private household........ Plasterers and stucco masons ....................... Operating engineers...... Machine builders and other precision machine assemblers.................. Speech-language pathologists and audiologists................. Dining room and cafeteria attendants and bar helpers........... Judges, magistrates, and other judicial workers........................ Economists and marketing research analysts...................... Forest and conservation workers....................... 24 Level Pro je c te d A c tu a l Share (p a c e d ) N um erical erro r, 2000 (p ro je c te d level minus a c tu a l level) Absolute R atio of R atio of p e rc e n t a c tu a l a c tu a l erro r, industry staffing original p a tte rn to tals p r o je c to p ro to p ro tions, je c te d je c te d 20001 staffing industry p a tte rn to tals Pro A c tu a l je c te d 33 31 .02 44 .03 -7.4 32.3 -13 30.0 1.7 10.1 -.01 .04 327 535 .39 765 .53 63.3 133.8 -231 30.1 7.4 20.3 1.14 1.71 56 54 .04 41 .03 -3.1 -26.0 13 30.9 40.1 6.4 -.01 -.06 37 33 .02 26 .02 -8.7 -30.3 8 30.9 12.7 15.1 -.02 -.04 35 28 .02 40 .03 -20.4 15.6 -12 31.1 37.7 9.9 -.04 .02 132 26 218 33 .16 .02 166 48 .12 .03 66.0 26.2 26.3 84.6 52 -15 31.4 31.6 27.7 35.3 4.1 4.6 .48 .04 .13 .09 51 56 .04 42 .03 10.2 -16.5 13 31.9 20.2 8.7 .03 -.03 33 186 48 262 .04 .19 72 398 .05 .28 48.8 40.8 121.1 113.6 -23 -136 32.7 34.1 30.6 25.9 3.3 10.9 .09 .42 .15 .82 286 254 .19 385 .27 -11.4 34.4 -131 34.1 32.4 7.4 -.18 .38 341 471 .35 351 .24 38.2 3.0 120 34.1 46.0 4.3 .72 .04 60 67 .05 50 .03 11.3 -17.0 17 34.2 25.3 3.8 .04 -.04 63 63 .05 96 .07 -.4 51.5 -33 34.3 23.3 14.3 .00 .13 80 104 .08 158 .11 29.6 97.2 -54 34.3 31.2 17.9 .13 .30 30 682 22 827 .02 .61 34 1,269 .02 .88 -24.4 21.3 15.3 86.0 -12 -441 34.5 34.8 49.0 21.5 28.0 16.0 -.04 .80 .02 2.28 375 347 .25 257 .18 -7.5 -31.4 90 34.9 10.6 22.0 -.16 -.46 26 158 29 179 .02 .13 44 132 .03 .09 8.1 13.4 66.6 -16.3 -15 47 35.1 35.4 34.7 48.5 .3 6.4 .01 .12 .07 -.10 55 47 .03 73 .05 -14.8 32.5 -26 35.7 34.6 5.8 -.04 .07 53 68 .05 106 .07 27.8 99.1 -38 35.8 30.9 7.9 .08 .21 448 578 .42 425 .30 29.0 -5.1 153 36.0 44.0 5.7 .72 -.09 40 47 .03 74 .05 17.9 84.3 -27 36.0 28.6 .4 .04 .13 36 45 .03 71 .05 27.2 99.0 -26 36.1 40.9 5.5 .05 .14 40 44 .03 32 .02 10.7 -18.6 12 36.1 30.5 5.6 .02 -.03 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Share (percent) A b s o lu te p e rc e n t S hare of to ta l jo b grow th, error, s im u la te d 1988-2000 projections, (p e rc e n t) 2000 P e rc e n t c h a n g e , 1988-2000 Total em p lo y m e n t October 2003 Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual [Numbers in thousands] P ercen t c h a n g e , 1988-2000 Total em p lo y m e n t P ro je c te d 20 00 A c tu a l 2000 O c c u p a tio n 1988 Level Counter and rental clerks.......................... Teachers and instructors, vocational education and training................. Sales agents, real estate.......................... Machine assemblers...... Insurance underwriters... Small-engine mechanics . Chemical equipment controllers, operators, and tenders................. Amusement and recreation attendants ... Fishers.......................... Social and human service assistants...... Switchboard operators.... Agricultural and food scientists.................... Central office operators.. Pharmacy aides............ Data-processing equipment repairers..... Bill and account collectors.................... Electronic home enter tainment equipment repairers...................... Correspondence clerks... Shipping, receiving, and traffic clerks........ Roustabouts, oil and gas ....................... Emergency medical technicians and paramedics.................. Parking lot attendants .... Medical secretaries....... Pressing machine operators and tenders, textile, garment, and related materials.......... Brokers, real estate....... Management analysts.... Cannery workers........... Adjustment clerks.......... Hand packers and packagers ................... Ophthalmic laboratory technicians.................. Electrical and electronic assemblers.................. Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers.......................... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Share (percent) Level Share (percent) Pro je c te d A c tu a l N u m er ical erro r, 2000 (pro je c te d level minus a c tu a l level) A b s o lu te p e rc e n t S h are of to ta l error, s im u la te d jo b grow th, 19 88-2000 projections, 2000 (p e rc e n t) Absolute p e rc e n t Ratio of R atio of erro r, a c tu a l a c tu a l original industry staffing p r o je c Pro to tals p a tte rn A c tu a l tions, to p ro to p ro je c te d 20001 je c te d je c te d staffing industry p a tte rn to tals 241 308 .23 486 .34 27.7 101.2 -177 36.5 51.4 6.0 .37 .95 239 255 .19 405 .28 6.6 69.4 -150 37.1 27.4 9.9 .09 .65 311 47 103 43 361 41 134 50 .26 .03 .10 .04 263 66 97 36 .18 .05 .07 .03 16.0 -11.8 29.4 18.2 -15.6 42.6 -6.4 -14.9 98 -25 37 14 37.4 38.1 38.3 38.8 32.4 34.8 33.2 36.1 6.5 6.5 4.2 .9 .27 -.03 .17 .04 -.19 .08 -.03 -.02 70 59 .04 97 .07 -15.5 38.5 -38 39.0 44.1 7.0 -.06 .10 175 46 217 50 .16 .04 360 36 .25 .03 23.7 8.6 105.0 -22.2 -143 14 39.6 39.7 20.4 19.9 24.2 16.7 .23 .02 .72 -.04 118 254 171 316 .13 .23 284 225 .20 .16 44.9 24.3 140.7 -11.4 -113 91 39.8 40.2 29.0 34.2 12.3 8.0 .29 .34 .65 -.11 25 43 70 30 36 89 .02 .03 .07 22 26 63 .02 .02 .04 20.8 -14.9 27.1 -13.9 -39.4 -9.8 9 10 26 40.3 40.4 40.9 36.0 74.1 35.9 4.2 19.4 3.1 .03 -.04 .10 -.01 -.07 -.03 71 115 .08 81 .06 61.2 14.3 33 41.0 54.7 19.2 .24 .04 149 195 .14 330 .23 30.7 121.8 -136 41.1 40.4 4.2 .25 .71 44 29 49 37 .04 .03 35 26 .02 .02 12.6 27.3 -20.7 -10.4 15 11 42.1 42.1 45.2 58.4 2.5 10.8 .03 .04 -.04 -.01 535 591 .43 1,025 .71 10.4 91.5 -434 42.4 37.8 4.4 .31 1.91 39 39 .03 27 .02 1.1 -29.2 12 42.8 6.0 34.9 .00 -.04 76 86 .06 152 .11 13.0 99.1 -66 43.2 20.8 24.7 .05 .29 47 207 54 327 .04 .24 95 227 .07 .16 14.1 58.0 101.1 10.0 -41 99 43.3 43.6 26.8 50.5 3.9 2.0 .04 .66 .19 .08 87 70 130 71 231 95 84 176 70 278 .07 .06 .13 .05 .20 66 58 313 48 505 .05 .04 .22 .03 .35 9.3 19.7 35.0 -2.1 20.2 -24.0 -16.7 140.3 -32.0 118.3 29 25 -137 21 -227 43.8 43.8 43.8 44.0 45.0 21.9 39.2 53.9 33.6 41.4 15.9 3.1 3.5 5.2 8.5 .04 .08 .25 -.01 .26 .08 -.05 .71 -.09 1.07 635 560 .41 1,019 .71 -11.8 60.5 -459 45.1 41.8 8.8 -.41 1.49 26 33 .02 23 .02 28.1 -12.1 10 45.7 23.4 26.1 .04 -.01 237 134 .10 246 .17 -43.6 4.0 -113 45.8 50.5 18.4 -.57 .04 44 48 .04 89 .06 8.0 100.1 -41 46.0 24.9 26.8 .02 .17 2003 25 Monthly Labor Review October Projections Evaluation Table 2. Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual [Numbers in thousands] P ercen t c h a n g e , 1988-2000 Total e m p lo y m e n t P ro je c te d 20 00 A c tu a l 2000 O c c u p a tio n 1988 Level Boilermakers................. Psychiatric aides.......... Computer operators, except peripheral equipment.................... Barbers......................... Jewelers and preciousstone and -metal workers....................... Electronic semi conductor processors... Directors, religious activities and education.................... Home appliance and power tool repairers...................... Broadcast and sound technicians....... Telephone and cable line installers and repairers...................... Electrical and electronic equipment assemblers, precision ..................... Shoe and leather workers and repairers, precision...... Purchasing managers.................... Precision instrument repairers...................... Cutters and trimmers, hand............ Travel agents................ Share (p ercen t) Level Share (percent) Pro je c te d A c tu a l N u m er Absolute ical p e rc e n t error, erro r, 2000 original (pro je c te d p r o je c tions, level 20001 minus a c tu a l level) A b s o lu te p e rc e n t error, s im u la te d projections, 2000 S hare of to ta l jo b grow th, 19 88-2000 (p e rc e n t) R atio of Ratio of a c tu a l a c tu a l industry staffing p a tte rn to tals to p ro to p ro je c te d je c te d staffing industry p a tte rn totals Pro je c te d A c tu a l 25 114 27 141 .02 .10 18 96 .01 .07 8.9 23.6 -25.6 -15.7 8 45 46.4 46.6 57.4 41.8 6.4 2.5 .01 .15 -.02 -.07 275 76 354 76 .26 .06 241 52 .17 .04 29.0 .2 -12.0 -31.8 113 24 46.7 46.9 74.8 30.0 10.2 15.2 .44 .00 -.13 -.09 36 42 .03 28 .02 15.9 -21.2 13 47.1 40.4 2.7 .03 -.03 38 34 .02 65 .05 -10.8 72.8 -32 48.4 48.8 .2 -.02 .11 56 62 .05 121 .08 9.8 116.9 -60 49.4 22.6 36.8 .03 .25 76 76 .06 51 .04 -.5 -33.4 25 49.5 47.4 9.5 .00 -.10 27 19 .01 39 .03 -31.1 41.5 -20 51.3 51.5 6.2 -.05 .04 127 100 .07 206 .14 -21.3 62.5 -106 51.6 36.4 23.9 -.15 .31 161 91 .07 197 .14 -43.8 21.8 -106 53.9 60.1 17.8 -.39 0.14 32 32 .02 20 .01 .1 -36.4 12 57.5 10.6 67.7 .00 -.04 252 289 .21 182 .13 14.4 -28.0 107 58.8 60.6 1.4 .20 -.27 46 50 .04 31 .02 7.8 -33.6 19 62.4 45.3 11.6 .02 -.06 63 142 65 219 .05 .16 39 133 .03 .09 2.7 54.1 -37.2 -6.2 25 85 63.6 64.2 58.5 66.6 10.2 .4 .01 .42 -.09 -.03 227 268 .20 163 .11 17.9 -28.3 105 64.5 75.3 13.8 .23 -.25 439 78 615 88 .45 .06 369 52 .26 .04 40.0 12.7 -16.0 -32.5 246 35 66.7 67.0 63.2 12.1 4.7 43.6 .97 .05 -.27 -.10 58 36 47 30 .03 .02 27 18 .02 .01 -19.8 -17.2 -52.6 -51.2 19 12 69.3 69.6 108.5 66.3 19.1 1.4 -.06 -.03 -.12 -.07 620 531 .39 297 .21 -14.3 -52.2 235 79.2 14.3 56.6 -.49 -1.26 42 54 .04 30 .02 29.0 -28.3 24 80.0 98.8 14.1 .07 -.05 207 220 .16 120 .08 6.3 -42.1 100 83.6 87.2 .9 .07 -.34 91 114 .08 62 .04 25.3 -32.4 53 85.3 77.7 9.0 .13 -.11 26 25 .02 13 .01 -4.8 -49.4 12 88.2 65.0 12.9 -.01 -.05 t v Instructors, adult (nonvocational) education.................... Electrical and electronics engineers ... Aerospace engineers..... Station installers and repairers, telephone.... Fallers and buckers....... Sewing machine operators, garment...... Peripheral equipment operators..................... Wholesale and retail buyers, except farm products...................... Offset lithographic press operators.......... Compositors and typesetters, precision ..................... 26 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2003 Table 2 Continued—Employment, by occupation, 1988 actual and 2000 projected and actual [Numbers in thousands] P ro je c te d 20 00 A c tu a l 2000 O c c u p a tio n 1988 Level Word processors and typists.................. Railroad brake, signal, and switch operators .... Aircraft assemblers, precision..................... Statement clerks.......... Furnace, kiln, oven, drier, or kettle operators and tenders .. Custom tailors and sewers....................... Service station attendants................... Housekeepers and butlers.................. Typesetting and composing machine operators and tenders .. Share (pe cerf) Level Pro je c te d A c tu a l Share (percent N u m e r ical error, 2000 (pro je c te d level minus a c tu a l level) Absolute p e rc e n t erro r, original p r o je c tions, 2000' R atio of a c tu a l industry to tals to p ro je c te d staffing p a tte rn S hare of to ta l jo b grow th, 19 88-2000 (p e rc e n t) R atio of a c tu a l staffing Pro p a tte rn to p ro je c te d je c te d industry to tals A c tu a l 985 924 .68 482 .34 -6.2 -51.1 442 91.7 129.2 12.4 -.34 -1.96 37 29 .02 14 .01 -22.9 -61.5 14 100.4 103.4 1.6 -.05 -.09 31 32 31 33 .02 .02 15 16 .01 .01 -1.7 2.6 -52.8 -50.8 16 17 108.1 108.7 27.9 82.8 54.6 13.9 .00 .00 -.06 -.06 62 52 .04 25 .02 -16.9 -60.5 27 110.6 114.5 .2 -.06 -.15 130 146 .11 68 .05 12.4 —47.9 78 115.6 97.9 10.5 .09 -.24 308 331 .24 140 .10 7.4 -54.6 191 136.6 126.9 2.7 .13 -.65 34 33 .02 13 .01 -2.6 -60.5 20 146.4 102.0 22.0 .00 -.08 39 45 .03 13 .01 14.3 -66.3 31 238.8 186.4 14.2 .03 -.10 occupations. Em ploym ent o f operators, fabricators, and laborers was expected to change little over the projection period, but it actually grew close to 13.6 percent between 1988 and 2000. Employment of transportation and materialm oving m achine and vehicle operators, a category that includes truck and bus drivers, was off by about 516,000 workers. The underprojection of transportation workers alone accounted for more than one-third of the projection error for all operators, fabricators, and laborers. Some of the overall projection error for this major group also can be attributed to an underprojection of helpers, laborers, and material movers, including freight, stock, and m aterial m overs and hand packers and packagers, by about 421,000 workers. The underlying assum ption behind the p rojection was that increasing automation would lead to less demand for these workers; the impact, however, was overestimated. Helpers, laborers, and material movers contributed about one-fourth of the error for the entire group. E m ploym ent o f m arketing and sales occupations was expected to increase 20 percent between 1988 and 2000, but it actually grew 27.9 percent. This underprojection of about 950,000 workers resulted primarily from an underestimate of cashiers by more than 600,000 workers. Em ploym ent of cashiers was projected to grow only about as fast as the average for all occupations, with more widespread use of bar https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis A b s o lu te p e rc e n t error, s im u la te d projections, 2000 P ercen t c h a n g e , 1988-2000 Total em p lo y m e n t code readers increasing the productivity of workers in this category. In actuality, employment grew much faster than average: 42.4 percent between 1988 and 2000. At the same time, employment of retail salespersons increased by about 340.000 workers. A large increase in discount retailers over the projection period was expected to slow the demand for retail salespersons, but it appears that the impact was overestimated. The two occupations combined (that is, cashiers and retail salespersons) contributed about four-fifths of the total error for the entire major group. The category of adm inistrative support occupations, including clerical, was underprojected by 865,000 workers. Employment of adjusters, investigators, and collectors grew much faster than projected, resulting in an underprojection of about 401.000 workers. By contrast, employment of secretaries, stenographers, and typists was overprojected by more than 1 million workers and contributed more than one-fifth of the total error for the major group. This detailed group of occupations was expected to grow more slowly than average, on the basis of the assumption that increasing office automation would decrease the demand for these workers. However, the group’s employment actually declined over the projection period. In contrast to the assumptions regarding automation for operators, fabricators, and laborers, the effects of automation on secretaries, stenographers, and typists were underestimated. Monthly Labor Review October 2003 27 Projections Evaluation The category of agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations was the only m ajor category for w hich the direction o f the change in em ploym ent was not correctly projected. Employment was expected to decline slightly, but it actually grew by about 14 percent. Although the numerical error was modest compared with that of other groups, the absolute percent error was the highest. It appears, however, that the error for this group was significantly affected by changes to the occupational classification system in the early 1990s. Existing occupational definitions were revised, and new occupations within agriculture, forestry, and fishing were added to the O ccupational E m ploym ent S tatistics ( oes ) survey, resulting in shifts in employment that accounted for the growth in the group.3 Detailed occupations In addition to the nine major occupational groups, employ m e n t p r o j e c ti o n s f o r 1988-2000 w e re d e v e lo p e d f o r n e a rly 500 detailed occupations. However, occupations with 25,000 or fewer workers in 1988 were eliminated from the analysis, leaving 338 occupations for which projections were eval uated.4 Table 2 presents data on each o f the rem aining occupations, ranked by absolute percent error. The absolute percent errors for all 338 occupations averaged about 23.2 percent.5 Approximately two-thirds of the occupations had below-average errors. The last two columns of table 2 present the projected and actual share o f total job growth. Although there are some notable exceptions, the projected shares for the detailed occupations, like those for the major groups, were relatively accurate. The majority of occupations had absolute projection er rors below 20 percent. (See table 3.) These 197 occupations accounted for alm ost 74 percen t o f total occupational em ploym ent. Only 57 occupations had absolute average errors above 40 percent, a little m ore than 7 percent of employment. Consistent with findings of past evaluations, projection error continues to be inversely related to employment size. In 1988, 155 out of the 338 occupations analyzed had between 25,000 and 100,000 workers. These 155 occupations had an average projection error of about 23.3 percent. However, as the following tabulation shows, the 39 occupations with more than 600,000 workers had an average error of only 14.8 percent: Occupations by size of employment Mean absolute percent error L ess th a n l0 0 ,0 0 0 ..................................................................... 28.4 2 5 .000 to 4 9 ,9 9 9 ....................................................................32.7 5 0 .000 to 9 9 ,9 9 9 ................................................................... 23.6 100.000 to 2 9 9 ,9 9 9 ................................................................ 20.1 3 0 0 .0 0 0 to 5 9 9 ,9 9 9 ................................................................. 20.0 Monthly Labor Review 28 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2003 5 0 0.000 o r m ore ....................................................................... 14.5 6 0 0.000 o r m ore .................................................................... 14.8 A ll occupations e v a lu a te d ....................................................... 23.2 P ro p o rtio n o f o ccupations w ith a low er-th an -av erag e e r r o r ................................................ 66.6 The direction of employment change was projected correctly for roughly 70 percent of the occupations included in the evaluation.6 Em ploym ent grow th was projected for the m ajority of the occupations. O f the 232 occupations that actually grew between 1988 and 2000, an increase was pro jected for all but 30. However, of the 106 occupations for which employment declined, only 32 were projected to decline over the period. Consistent with past evaluations, the 1988-2000 projec tions appear to be conservative in nature. For those occupa tions in which the direction of change was correctly antic ipated, more than two-thirds were underprojected. In fact, of the two-thirds of occupations that were projected to grow by less than 30 percent, only about one-third actually did so. A higher proportion of occupations grew by more than 30 percent over the projection period. At the same time, only about 11.5 percent of the occupations were projected to grow by more than 30 percent, and one-third actually did. The same is true for occupations at the other extreme: more of the occupations shrank than were originally projected to. (See table 4.) Sources of error Errors in the projections for individual occupations can ultimately be traced back to errors in assumptions or judg ments, resulting in incorrectly projected changes in staffing patterns, industry projections, or a combination of both. To determine whether projection errors could in fact be traced back to the one or the other, two matrices were created, for purposes of simulation. The first matrix was generated by multiplying the projected 2000 staffing patterns of industries by the actual 2000 industry employment numbers. This matrix reveals the outcome if perfect industry employment had been projected, isolating errors in the projections due to analytical judgments about changes in the staffing patterns. The second matrix was generated by multiplying the actual 2000 staffing patterns7 by the 2000 projected industry totals. This matrix reveals the outcome if perfect staffing patterns had been projected, isolating errors due to incorrect industry pro jections. The 2000 employment figure for each occupation from each matrix was then compared with the actual 2000 employment figure, and an absolute percent error was calculated. The two co lu m n s h e a d e d “A b so lu te p e rc e n t e rro r, sim u la te d projections, 2000” in table 2 present projection errors from the two matrices created to analyze these effects. The two errors for an occupation can then be com pared. If one error is significantly higher than the other, the source of the error can be traced back to either the staffing pattern or the industry projection. For example, one can see clearly that the projection error for service station attendants is attributable more to errors in projected staffing patterns than to incorrect industry projections. The absolute percent error for service station attendants, 136.6 percent, was one o f the largest. The error in the relevant matrix, using actual staffing patterns and pro jected industry totals, is 2.7 percent, whereas it is 127 percent with actual industry totals and projected staffing patterns. Slow growth was projected for service station attendants, with more repair and maintenance work seen moving outside of service stations. However, employment actually declined between 1988 and 2000, and most gas stations are now selfservice only, no longer offering routine vehicle maintenance and having customers pump their own gas and even pay at the pump. The opposite is true in the case of aerospace engineers, an occupation with an absolute error of 67 percent. The percent error with projected staffing patterns and actual industry totals is 12.1 percent, and the error with actual staffing p attern s and p ro jected industry totals is 43.6 percent. Em ploym ent of aerospace engineers is concentrated in the aerospace manufacturing industry, which was projected to grow 0.3 percent annually, but actually declined by about 3.9 percent, on average, each year between 1988 and 2000. A bout 54 percent o f the occupations had errors attrib utable more to changes in the staffing pattern, and 21 percent Table 3. Job clusters. In investigating sources of projection error, it is helpful to examine groups of related occupations, or job clusters. Several such clusters are examined closely in this section because they have large projection errors or because they highlight specific sources of error. In the case of many health-care-related occupations, for example, errors in the projections are attributable mainly to incorrect assumptions behind the projections of the utilization of workers in the occupation by industry. (See table 5.) The first group of health care workers listed in the table is labeled the health-diagnosing occupations and consists of optom etrists, physicians, and dentists. All of the health-diagnosing occupations actually grew more slowly than projected. For example, physicians were projected to grow 27.8 percent, but grew only 10.4 percent. (See table 2.) Dentists actually declined 3.7 percent, instead of growing 13.1 percent as projected. The second and third groups of occupations listed in the table are dubbed health assessment and treating occupations and health technicians and technologists, respectively. M ost Distribution of occupational absolute percent errors R a n g e of a b s o lu te p e rc e n t errors N u m b e r of o c c u p a tio n s w ith errors in ra n g e P e rc e n t o f o c c u p a tio n s w ith errors in ra n g e E m p loy m en t totals a c c o u n te d for (thousands) 116 81 48 36 30 5 22 34.3 24.0 14.2 10.7 8.9 1.5 6.5 53,826 28,708 13,843 7,329 5,377 643 2,140 0 up to, but not including, 10........ 10 up to, but not including, 2 0 ...... 20 up to, but not including, 3 0 ...... 30 up to, but not including, 4 0 ...... 40 up to, but not including, 50...... 50 up to, but not including, 60...... 60 or greater................................ N ote : had errors attributable more to industry projections. The rem aining 25 percent of occupations had errors equally a ttrib u ta b le to staffin g p a tte rn ch an g es and in d u stry projections. In most cases, both errors in industry projections and errors in staffing pattern projections had a small impact on accuracy, even if the errors were attributable more to one or the other factor. P e rc e n t o f e m p lo y m e n t a c c o u n te d for 48.1 25.7 12.4 6.6 4.8 .6 1.9 Average absolute percent error for all occupations is 23.2 percent. Table 4. Distribution of projected and actual percent changes P ro jected A c tu a l R a n g e o f p e rc e n t c h a n g e s N um ber Total......................................................... Greater than 6 0 ................................................ 60 down to, but not including, 50.......................... 50 down to, but not including, 40.......................... 40 down to, but not including, 30......................... 30 down to, but not including, 20.......................... 20 down to, but not including, 10.......................... 10 down to, but not including, 0 .......................... 0 or less............................................................... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 338 5 9 6 19 60 114 58 67 P e rc e n t of to ta l 100.0 1.5 2.7 1.8 5.6 17.8 33.7 17.2 19.8 N um ber P e rc e n t o f to ta l 338 39 13 20 35 33 58 34 106 100.0 11.5 3.8 5.9 10.4 9.8 17.2 10.1 31.4 Monthly Labor Review October 2003 29 Projections Evaluation Table 5. Sources of projection error for health-care-related occupations, 2000, and projected and actual share of total job growth, 1988-2000 A bsolute p e rc e n t erro r' O c c u p a tio n A bsolute p e rc e n t error (ra tio of a c tu a l industry totals to p ro je c te d staffing patterns) A b s o lu te p e rc e n t error (ra tio of a c tu a l staffing pattern s to p ro je c te d industry totals) S hare of to ta l jo b grow th (p e rc e n t) P ro je c te d A c tu a l Health-diagnosing occupations: Optometrists............................................................ Physicians............................................................... Dentists.................................................................. 15.3 15.7 17.5 20.1 14.0 22.6 2.5 1.1 2.7 0.0 .8 .1 0.0 .2 .0 Health-assessment and -treating occupations: Physician assistants............................................... Occupational therapists........................................... Speech-language pathologists and audiologists....... 11.1 32.7 35.8 8.5 30.6 30.9 3.0 3.3 7.9 .1 .1 .1 .1 .2 .2 Health technicians and technologists: Clinical laboratory technologists and technicians..... Medical records and health information technicians .. 11.0 21.3 15.7 25.7 5.3 1.7 .3 .2 .3 .2 1Absolute percent error is calculated as the numerical error (positive or negative), divided by actual employment in the target year of the projection. of these occupations grew faster than projected. For example, occupational therapists were projected to grow 48.8 percent, but actually grew 121.1 percent; and medical records and health information technicians were projected to grow 59.9 percent, but actually grew 103.1 percent. Both of these occupations were among the fastest-grow ing occupations between 1988 and 2000. The m ain assum ption behind the projected changes in staffing patterns for health-diagnosing occupations was that these occupations would decline as a share of the workforce in offices of health practitioners because of an increase in large group practices requiring a higher proportion of support staff. Among the m ajor assumptions behind the expected increase in utilization of the other two groups of health-care workers was an increase in outpatient services and a shifting of responsibilities to lower skilled health-care workers in an attem pt to contain costs. Because the health-diagnosing occupations w ere overprojected, the effects that group practices would have on the staffing patterns of doctors’ offices appears to have been underestimated. The growing reliance on lower skilled health-care workers to carry out more routine tasks also appears to have been underestim ated, because of the overly conservative projections for these oc cupations. In contrast, the projection errors for occupations con centrated in the education services industry can be attributed more to error in the projection of industry employment rather than staffing. Overall employment in education services was projected to grow at an average annual rate of 1.2 percent, but it actually grew at a rate of 3.2 percent. Table 6 shows that the absolute percent errors are higher in the simulation testing for industry error, not only for teachers, but also for related oc cupations, such as counselors and school bus drivers. All of these occupations were underprojected. Monthly Labor Review 30 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2003 A main contributor to growth in educational services is an increase in school enrollment, which is a reflection of the population growth of youths aged 5 to 17 years. In 1988, the Census Bureau projected an increase of 2 m illion among the elem entary school population by 2000. This population actually increased by approximately 4.4 million. Also, in 1988 the Census Bureau projected an increase of 1.3 million in the secondary school population by 2000; it actually increased by 1.7 million.8 Faster growth in the school-aged population caused enrollment rates to rise and increased the demand for teachers over the 1988-2000 period. Errors in the projections for textile workers also can be traced back to incorrect projections in the industries in which they are em ployed. However, this group o f occupations differs from those previously discussed, because employment was projected to decline rather than grow. Employment of textile workers is concentrated in three industries: knitting mills; apparel; and weaving, finishing, and yarn and thread mills. Overall employment in all of these industries declined at a faster rate than was projected. The category of knitting mills was projected to decline by 1.5 percent annually, but employ ment actually declined by 4.3 percent. Apparel was projected to decline by 1.5 percent annually, but actually declined by 6 percent. The category of weaving, finishing, and yarn and thread mills was projected to decline by 1.2 percent, but actually declined by 2.8 percent. As a result, the occupations in table 7 also declined faster than projected. For example, the category of sewing m achine operators was projected to decline 14 percent, but actually declined by 52 percent and ended up as the occupation with second-largest job decline. While the major assumptions for the decline— a shift in U.S. apparel production overseas to countries with lower labor costs, an increase in cheap apparel imports, and greater worker productivity through the introduction of new labor-saving Table 6. Sources of projection error for education-related occupations, 2000, and projected and actual share of total job growth, 1988-2000 O c c u p a tio n s A bsolute p e rc e n t erro r' Teachers, secondary school............. Bus drivers, school........................... Counselors........................................ Education administrators................... Teachers, preschool.......................... A b s o lu te p e rc e n t error (ra tio of a c tu a l industry to tals to p ro je c te d staffing patterns) 7.8 8.7 17.7 18.6 20.5 8.1 7.9 4.7 5.6 5.9 A bs olu te p e rc e n t error (ra tio of a c tu a l staffing p attern s to p ro je c te d industry totals) 14.8 15.5 15.1 12.9 22.5 S hare o f to ta l jo b grow th (p e rc e n t) P ro jected A c tu a l 1.24 .38 .18 .34 .40 1.33 .43 .26 .58 .59 Absolute percent error is calculated as the numerical error (positive or negative), divided by actual employment in the target year of the projection m achinery— were correct, the im pact o f these trends on employment appears to have been underestimated. The O c c u p a tio n a l O utlook Handbook* Projections o f em ploym ent change are the foundation for statements on job outlooks in reports and career guidance publications. Accordingly, the quality o f the information those statem ents provide depends on the accuracy of the projections on which they are based. Identifying sources of error and bias and evaluating their effects enables the Bureau of Labor Statistics to improve the accuracy of its projections. An evaluation, however, also helps users whose decisions may be guided by the projections— a group that includes career guidance counselors, education planners, training officials, jobseekers, and students. Utilizing the information presented in an evaluation, all of these individuals can assess the reliability of job outlook statements. Therefore, significant weight should be given to evaluating discussions of em ploym ent change, as well as to evaluating discussions of em ployment levels. The 1988-2000 occupational employment projections were the basis for the job outlook information presented in the 1990-91 edition of the Occupational Outlook Handbook. In the Handbook, growth descriptors are used to give readers a general impression of job prospects in each occupation. The follow ing descriptors relating to ranges o f em ploym ent growth or decline between 1988 and 2000 were used:10 P r o je c te d c h a n g e in e m p l o y m e n t , G r o w th d e s c r ip to r M uch faster than av erage ... F a ste r than a v e r a g e ............... A b o u t as fast as a v e r a g e ..... M ore slow ly than average .. L ittle o r no c h a n g e ................ D e c lin e ...................................... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1 9 8 8 -2 0 0 0 In crease o f 31 o r m ore percent Increase o f 20 p ercen t to 30 percen t Increase o f 11 percen t to 19 percen t In crease o f 4 p ercen t to 10 percent Increase or decrease o f 3 percent or less D ecrease o f 4 p ercen t o r m ore Table 8 gives a summary of the distributions of growth descriptors of occupations and also reinforces the con servative nature of the projections. Overall, 87 occupations ended up in the growth category projected, and another 100 occupations were one category higher or lower. The largest number of occupations was projected to grow about as fast as average. The majority actually grew much faster than average or declined. About 30 percent of all occupations were projected to have average growth, whereas only 14.8 percent actually did so. A little more than 26 percent of the oc cupations were projected to either grow faster than the average or decline; in actuality, almost 60 percent of the occupations fell into one of these two categories. More than 65 percent of occupations projected to be in the much-faster-than-average category and almost 50 percent of declining occupations actually fell into their respective categories, making these categories the most accurate in terms of number of occupations. O f those occupations projected to grow as fast as average, only 20 percent actually did so. The higher degree of accuracy in the extreme-growth categories suggests that the accuracy of the bls projections is greatest where there is actual strong growth or strong decline. Fastest-growing occupations. The high degree of accuracy in projecting employment in those occupations which grew much faster than average becomes evident when one exam ines the 20 occupations projected to be the fastest growing.11 (See table 9.) The average absolute error for this group was 23.6 percent, slightly higher than the 23.3-percent average error for all occupations. Only 6 of the 20 occupations pro jected to be fastest growing ranked among the top 20 actual fastest-growing occupations, 4 of which are health-carerelated occupations. However, when all occupations were ranked on the basis of their actual percent change between 1988 and 2000, 15 of the 20 projected to grow the fastest ranked among the top 25 percent of occupations that actually did. All of these occupations were projected to have much faster than average growth, and all but 5 actually grew much faster than average. O f the 20 fastest-growing occupations, Monthly Labor Review October 2003 31 Projections Evaluation the average growth, in percentage terms, was 55 percent; however, the actual average growth rate o f those occu pations, 110 percent, was double the projected rate. E m ploym ent grew in all but two o f the occupations projected to be among the 20 fastest growing, suggesting that the basic bls assumptions about growth tended to be accurate; however, employment was either under- or over estimated. For example, the technological advances in ra diology and the increasing importance of the discipline in diagnosing disease and injury were the m ajor reasons that much faster than average growth was projected for radiologic technologists and technicians. However, the growth of that occupation seems to have been limited, possibly by the high cost of implementing the technology.12 Nonetheless, the fundam ental bls assum ptions about grow th for the occupation were correct, and although it was not actually am ong the 20 fastest-grow ing occupations, radiologic technologists and technicians still experienced faster-thanaverage employment growth. Employment was overestimated to a larger degree for dataprocessing equipm ent repairers and m edical secretaries. Em ploym ent in these occupations had average and slowerthan-average growth, respectively. In the case of data-proc essing equipment repairers, faster-than-average growth was projected because of rapid increases in the use of office Table 7. computers and other technology that requires repair workers. However, employment growth was limited because the increased quality of the machines caused fewer breakdowns and many computers were designed to self-diagnose problems. In the case of m edical secretaries, increased use of autom ated office technology .hindered employment growth. Also, as technology shortened the completion time of tasks, other medical staff, such as medical assistants, performed tasks traditionally carried out by medical secretaries, further hindering their growth. Occasionally, unforeseen changes in technology, business practices, or governmental regulations affect occupations to a significant degree. It is often difficult or impossible to anticipate and incorporate such changes into the growth assumptions for som e occupations, and the changes frequently resu lt in projection error. For example, the category of travel agents was among the 20 occupations projected to be the fastest growing, but it actually declined between 1988 and 2000. Travel agents were projected to have such high growth, in percentage terms, because o f an increase in business travel and disposable income. These assumptions were correct; however, the de velopment and use of the Internet and online travel services, enabling consumers to shop for the best deals and book trips themselves, were not anticipated in 1988.13 A nother source of error in the bls projections was the change in the classification system of occupations upon which Sources of projection error for textile-related occupations, 2000, and projected and actual share of total job growth, 1988-2000 A bsolute p e rc e n t error' O c c u p a tio n Textile bleaching and dyeing machine operators and tenders......................................................... Textile drawout and winding machine operators and tenders......................................................... Textile machine setters and setup operators.......... Shoe and leather workers and repairers, precision.. Sewing machine operators, garment........................ A b s o lu te p e rc e n t error (ra tio of a c tu a l staffing pattern s to p ro je c te d staffing patterns) A b s o lu te p e rc e n t error (ra tio of a c tu a l staffing p attern s to p ro je c te d industry totals) S hare of to ta l jo b g row th (p e rc e n t) Projected A c tu a l 6.0 13.4 23.0 0.0 0.0 14.3 30.9 57.5 79.2 2.7 12.7 10.6 14.3 18.6 15.1 67.7 56.6 -.2 .0 .0 -.5 -.2 .0 .0 -1.3 Absolute percent error is calculated as the numerical error (positive or negative), divided by actual employment in the target year of the projection. Table 8. Distribution of projected and actual growth descriptors P ro je c te d g ro w th c a te g o r y Total......................................... Declining................................... Little or no change..................... Slower than average.................. Average..................................... Faster than average.................. Much faster than average.......... Monthly Labor Review 32 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P ro jected n u m b e r of o c c u p a tio n s in e a c h grow th c a te g o ry A c tu a l n u m b e r of o c c u p a tio n s in e a c h g ro w th c a te g o r y Declining 87 25 16 12 20 12 2 338 51 32 50 101 66 38 October 2003 Little or no change 36 5 5 3 19 3 1 Slower th a n a v e ra g e 25 4 5 5 6 4 1 A v e ra g e 50 6 0 8 21 9 6 Faster th a n a v e ra g e M u c h faster than a v e ra g e 34 1 4 7 13 6 3 106 10 2 15 22 32 25 Projected and actual occupational employment rankings, by change from 1988 to 2000 O c c u p a tio n P ro je c te d rank, 1988-2000 A c tu a l rank, 19 88-2000 A b s o lu te p e rc e n t error F a ste st-g ro w in g o c c u p a tio n s Paralegals and legal assistants........................................................ Medical assistants.............................................................. Radiologic technologists and technicians......................................... Personal care and home health aides............................................ Data-processing equipment repairers............................................... Medical records and health information technicians......................... Medical secretaries................................................................. Physical therapists........................................................................ Surgical technologists............................................................. Operations research analysts........................................................... Securities, commodities, and financial services sales agents.......... Travel agents1.................................................................. Systems analysts............................................................. Physical therapy assistants and aides............................................. Occupational therapists.................................................................. Computer programmers............................................................ Social and human service assistants............................................ Respiratory therapists................................................................. Correctional officers......................................................................... Electrical and electronics engineers1............................................. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 28 23 124 3 170 11 198 27 44 49 40 260 38 9 5 70 1 42 8 287 2.8 4.0 31.4 30.1 41.0 21.3 43.6 8.4 .8 2.6 1.8 64.2 5.5 27.3 32.7 5.1 39.8 9.3 34.1 66.7 Retail salespersons.................................................................. Registered nurses.............................................................. Janitors and cleaners, including maids and housekeeping cleaners .. Waiters and waitresses................................................................. General managers and top executives............................................ Office clerks, general.............................................................. Secretaries, except legal and medical............................................. Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants.......................................... Truckdrivers, light and heavy......................................................... Receptionists and information clerks1............................................... 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 6 14 19 8 3 262 31 4 7 8.1 3.3 4.5 10.5 .9 6.8 15.6 12.1 9.9 15.0 Cashiers.................................................................................. Guards............................................................................ Computer programmers............................................................... Food counter, fountain, and related workers.................................... 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 1 24 29 11 20 56 18 23 45 12 20.5 .6 5.1 11.5 3.8 20.0 7.8 5.5 7.9 30.1 Farmworkers............................................................ Electrical and electronic assemblers2............................................ Sewing machine operators, garment................................................. Hand packers and packagers2........................................................... Electrical and electronic equipment assemblers, precision2.............. Word processors and typists2............................................................ Inspectors, testers, and graders, precision2..................................... Court reporters, medical transcriptionists, and stenographers.......... Packaging and filling machine operators and tenders2........................ 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 6 144 2 329 238 1 176 16 292 .4 45.8 79.2 45.1 53.9 91.7 8.6 17.7 34.1 Machine feeders and offbearers....................................................... Textile drawout and winding machine operators and tenders............. Child care workers, private household.............................................. Telephone and cable TV line installers and repairers2......................... Data entry keyers*.......................................................................... Industrial truck and tractor operators2............................................... Crushing, grinding, mixing, and blending machine operators and tenders2.................................................................................... Machine-forming operators and tenders, metal and plastic................ Welders and cutters2......................................................................... Central office and PBX installers and repairers................................. Machine tool cutting operators and tenders, metal and plastic......... 10 11 12 13 14 15 22 15 8 283 182 159 2.0 14.3 34.9 51.6 9.4 7.6 16 17 18 19 20 161 52 251 32 18 21.4 2.0 16.7 19.7 23.1 O c c u p a tio n s w ith th e large st jo b grow th Food preparation w o rk e rs ............................................................................ Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses......................... Teachers, secondary school....................................................... Systems analysts................................................................ Accountants and auditors............................................................... Personal care and home health aides.............................................. O c c u p a tio n s w ith th e large st jo b d e c lin e s 1Occupation that was projected to grow, but actually declined. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 2 Occupation that was projected to decline, but actually grew. Monthly Labor Review October 2003 33 Projections Evaluation the projections are based. (This kind of change, in which some occupations may have suboccupations added to or removed from them, is to be contrasted with a definitional change in an occupation. As m entioned earlier, occupations that had definitional changes were excluded from the analysis.) New occupations were added after the projections were made in 1988. This is one reason for the sharp decline in employment among electrical and electronic engineers. In 1988, computer engineers were classified as electrical and electronic en gineers. Beginning in 1989, however, computer engineering was surveyed as a separate occupation, shifting employment away from electrical and electronic engineers. Occupations with the largest job growth. Like the fastestgrowing occupations, occupations with the largest job growth offer insight into those occupations which will have the greatest impact on the labor market. Occupations with the largest job growth often have slower growth in percentage terms, but a much larger number of workers, than those ranked among the fastest growing. As a result, the former occupations usually create more job openings. However, some occu pations are among both the fastest-growing occupations and the occupations with the largest job growth. Three occu pations examined in this analysis were in both categories: personal care and home health aides; shipping, receiving, and traffic clerks; and teacher assistants. The projections for the 20 occupations with the largest job grow th were relatively accurate, reflecting the fact that projection error is inversely related to employment size. (See table 9 .)14 Thirteen occupations with the largest projected job growth were among the top 20 with the largest actual job growth. The 13 occupations accounted for a combined 7.1 million jobs and 94 percent o f net job growth. The average absolute percent error of the group was only 9.2 percent, well below the 24.5-percent average for all occupations. M ost of the occupations with the largest projected and largest actual job grow th were in service industries— in particular, health, education, and food services. A growing elderly population with an increasing need for medical care is one factor driving growth among the different nursing occu pations and personal care and home health aides. Also, in creasing health care costs are channeling certain tasks into the hands of lower skilled health-care workers instead of physicians. As regards education services, rapidly increasing school enrollments are the major factor driving the demand for secondary school teachers and teacher assistants. Finally, a growing population with increasing income and more leisure time is one source of growth among workers in the food services industry, such as waiters and waitresses; food coun ter, fountain, and related workers; and food preparation work ers. Strong economic growth and a growing population with higher incomes are also sources of growth for occupations in the retail trade sector. Employed mainly in retail trade, cashiers 34 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2003 added the most new jobs between 1988 and 2000, almost 1 million. Combined with retail salespersons, cashiers added almost 1.4 million new jobs to the economy. In one instance, an occupation projected to be among those adding the m ost jobs actually declined over the projection period. Secretaries, except legal and medical, were projected to add 385,000 new jobs, but employment actually declined by 59,000 jobs. In fact, secretaries ended up among the 20 occupations with the largest job losses, due mainly to increases in office technology that made those in the occu pation more productive. As they became more productive, secretaries increasingly worked for more than one manager. Managers themselves also increasingly perform ed routine office work, such as word processing and filing, further reducing the need for secretaries. Occupations with the largest job declines. Declining oc cupational em ploym ent stem s from d eclining industry employment or factors such as technological advancements and changes in business practices. The average projected numerical decline for the 20 occupations with the largest losses was 58,000 jobs. The average actual numerical decline was 130,000 jobs. The accuracy among the occupations in this group was not as high as among those with the largest job growth: only 7 occupations that were projected to be among the occupations with the largest job declines actually were. (See table 9.) Technological advancements were the major reason for both projected and actual declines in employment. New laborsaving machinery, for example, was a factor in the decline in textile jobs such as sewing machine operators and textile drawout and w inding m achine operato rs and ten d ers. The employment of office support workers, such as word proc essors and typists, and court rep o rters, m edical transcriptionists, and stenographers was curtailed by new office technology, including e-mail and voice mail. Other factors, such as growing domestic and international competition and corporate restructuring, also dampened the level of employ ment in these occupations. Among the 20 occupations with the largest projected employment declines, half actually grew over the projection period. The largest numerical difference between projected and actual em ploym ent levels was for hand packers and packagers. As regards m any o f the other o ccupations projected to decline, the effects of automation and other laborsaving technology appear to have been overestimated. Conclusions and implications Overall, the employment projections for the year 2000 were slightly more accurate than the earlier ones for 1995: em ployment for six of the nine major occupational groups was projected with greater accuracy for 2000. However, projections on such an aggregate scale are, by their nature, uncertain. Because projections are made for individual occupations, and not m ajor groups, errors are com pounded as these occu pations are combined. The detailed occupations that make up each group can be large enough that any error in their in dividual projection can affect the outcome for the group overall. Compared with errors from past evaluations, the average absolute percent error for the 2000 occupational employment projections was not significantly different. The mean absolute percent error for the 2000 projections, 23.2 percent, was close to the mean absolute percent error of 24.0 percent for the 1995 projections and only slightly higher than the errors found in previous sets of projections.15 However, the two most recent evaluations covered many more occupations than did the earlier ones. The two matrices prepared for the simulations carried out in the current and previous evaluations have been analyzed and the m ajor source o f error for many detailed occupations identified. As the previous evaluation found, good industry projections are crucial to developing good occupational projections, but the chief source of errors appears to be the projected staffing patterns. In the matrix for which projected staffing patterns were applied to actual 2000 industry totals, the mean absolute percent error was 22.6 percent; in the matrix for which actual staffing patterns were applied to projected 2000 industry totals, the mean absolute error dropped to 9.3 percent. Historically, all bls evaluations of its occupational em ploym ent projections have yielded the result that the pro jections are conservative. The 1988-2000 projections are no exception: m ost o f the projections were clustered around average growth, even when more occupations grew much faster than the average or declined. The inherent conservatism contributed to overall errors in staffing patterns, in part because analysts were conservative in projecting occupa tional coefficients or changes in the proportion o f an occu pation within each industry. In projecting occupational patterns from 1988 to 2000, analysts reviewed historical employment data and conducted analyses to identify factors underlying trends. The evaluation of the 1988-2000 projections has provided analysts the first chance to look back at this work. Because an industryoccupation m atrix was used to project em ploym ent by occupation, analysts projected changes to the occupationindustry cells on the basis of knowledge gained through research performed in preparing the Occupational Outlook Handbook. Judgm ents were made as to w hether factors causing changes in occupational utilization within industries would have less, more, or the same effect in the future. The analysis also uncovered factors expected to affect the utilization of workers that did not affect them in the past. Analytical judgments were then translated into numerical estimates— increases or decreases in the coefficients of the industry-occupation matrix from 1988 to 2000. To maintain consistency among the judgm ents of analysts projecting occupational change, the following guidelines for describing changes were implemented to develop projected coefficients for all occupations across all industries:16changes of 5 percent to 9 percent are described as small, those from 10 percent to 19 percent are considered moderate, and those of 20 or more percent are said to be significant. Biases towards conservatism are recognized by the Bureau; thus, the guidelines for projecting the changes in the oc cupational coefficients have been revised. For exam ple, beginning in the early 1990s, the Bureau set forth new guidelines for interpreting the projected ranges for identifying small, moderate, and large changes in the occupational coefficients: according to these guidelines, any positive change up to 10 percent is considered small, a change from 10 percent to 20 percent is deemed moderate, one from 20 percent to 35 percent is held to be large, and a change of 50 percent or more is judged very large. The revised guidelines have allowed analysts to describe changes in the occupational coefficients more accurately, which should result in more accurate projections. The influence of conservative coefficients of change on the projections, however, was not the only source of error. Rather, the impact of many technological changes and trends were not fully realized and therefore also contributed to errors in the projected staffing patterns. Incorrect analytical judg ments relating to the impact of technological change and to trends such as outsourcing and the growing role of temporaryhelp firms played a large part in this regard. Furthermore, some events, such as the timing of business cycles, the onset of international conflicts, and the occurrence of natural disasters, are difficult to predict and ultimately have a substantial impact on the accuracy of the projections. Notes__________________________________ 1 Another measure used to evaluate the projections included comanalysis o f the projections for the major occupational groups. The contribution was calculated by first dividing an occupation’s projected paring the actual distribution o f employment growth among occu employment by its actual employment in the target year. The result pations with the projected distribution. To evaluate how the errors of the calculation was then multiplied by the ratio of the occupation’s attributed to detailed occupations affected the errors associated with actual employment to the total actual employment for the major their respective major groups, each detailed occupation’s error was group, and this resulting value was then divided by the sum o f the weighted by its employment size in 1988. (Each occupation’s con errors for all occupations to determine each occupation’s share of the tribution to the error for a particular major group is presented in the https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 35 Projections Evaluation error as a percentage.) A comparison of the projected and actual growth in terms of descriptors of the detailed occupations also is presented as a method of evaluation. the 1990-91 O c c u p a t i o n a l O u tlo o k H a n d b o o k , see “The 1988-2000 Employment Projections: How Accurate Were They?” O c c u p a t i o n a l O u tlo o k Q u a r te r ly , spring 2003. 2 This underprojection was really the result o f changes in the occupational classification over time. In 1988, the only computerrelated occupation for which a projection was developed was systems analysts. The projection turned out to be close to the mark. However, between 1989 and 1998, three more computer-related occupations, including the residual category of “all other computer scientists,” were added alongside systems analysts. In 2000, these three occupations accounted for an additional 1 million workers. 10 More information on these growth adjectives is available in the section titled “Key to understanding what’s in the H a n d b o o k ,” in the O c c u p a t i o n a l O u t l o o k H a n d b o o k , Bulletin 2350 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 1990-91). 3 Over the 1988-2000 period, the oes definition o f the detailed occupation category of landscaping and groundskeeping laborers was modified. The change caused workers in agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations to be shuffled among detailed occupations within the major group. Therefore, more types o f workers were classified as landscaping and groundskeeping laborers in 2000 than in 1988, which caused employment in agriculture, forestry, fishing, and related occupations to be underprojected. 4 For an explanation of occupations that were eliminated from the analysis, see the technical note at the end of this article. 5 Weighted by actual 2000 employment, the mean absolute percent error was 4.43 percent. 6 Occupations with projected and actual growth between -3 percent and 3 percent were categorized as having little or no change. Those occupations whose projected and actual growth fell into this category were counted as having employment projected in the correct direction, even if the projected and actual employment figures were in different directions. 7 See the technical note at the end of the for an explanation of why 1998 staffing patterns were used instead of the actual 2000 Standard Occupational Classification (soc)-based patterns. 8 See Valerie Personick, “Industry output and employment: a slower trend for the nineties,” M o n th ly L a b o r R e v i e w , November 1989, pp. 2 5 -41, for the original population projections. Updated population figures are given on the National Population Estimates page on the U.S. Census Bureau’s website, http://www.census.gov/population/ 11 The list of the 20 fastest-growing occupations was originally published in table 5 in the November 1989 M o n t h l y L a b o r R e v ie w . Because of changes in the 2000 soc system, some of the occupational titles now differ from the original 1988 titles. For example, human services workers are now called social and human service assistants. 12 Assumptions regarding the growth o f radiologic technologists and technicians were published in O c c u p a t i o n a l P r o j e c t i o n s a n d T ra in in g D a ta , Bulletin 2351 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, 1990) and in the “Job Outlook” sections of the respective occupations in the 199091 O c c u p a t i o n a l O u tlo o k H a n d b o o k . 13 Current growth assumptions were analyzed in O c c u p a t i o n a l Bulletin 2542 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 2 0 0 2 -0 3 ) and in the “Job O utlook“ section s o f the O c c u p a t i o n a l O u t l o o k H a n d b o o k , Bulletin 2540 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 2002-03). P r o je c tio n s a n d T r a in in g D a ta , 14 A table listing the 20 occupations with the largest job growth was originally published in the November 1989 M o n t h l y L a b o r R e v i e w . Because o f modifications to the soc, one o f the occupational titles changed from its original 1988 title: licensed practical nurses are now called licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses. Also stemming from the modifications to the soc, the two occupations of order fillers, wholesale and retail sales; and stock clerks, stockroom, warehouse, or storage yard were combined into the sole occupation titled “stock clerks and order fillers.” The combined occupation ranks among both those with the largest projected growth and those with the largest actual growth, but was not in the R e v i e w table. Because the original occupations were not combined when the projections were made, they are not included in the table. 15 See Neal H. Rosenthal, “The quality of b l s projections: a historical account,” M o n th ly L a b o r R e v ie w , May 1999, pp. 27-35. w ww /estim ates/uspop.htm l. 9 For additional information regarding the evaluation of material in A ppendix: The 1988-2000 occupational employment projections were developed within the framework of an industry-occupation matrix containing 258 industries and 491 occupations. Data used for the 1988 matrix and the projected 2000 matrix came from a variety of sources. For industries covered by the Occupational Employment Statistics ( oes) survey, the most current survey data were utilized to develop the occupational distribution or staffing patterns used to estimate 1988 wage and salary employment. Employment by occupation in each industry was derived by multiplying the occupational distribution of employment by 1988 wage and salary worker employment for each industry; data for each of these categories were obtained 36 D a ta , Bulletin 2351 Technical Note Framework o f the projections. Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 16 See O c c u p a tio n a l P r o je c tio n s a n d T r a in in g (Bureau of Labor Statistics, April 1990). October 2003 from the bls Current Employment Statistics ( ces) survey. Both the ces survey and the oes survey are surveys of business establishments, covering only wage and salary workers. Data from the 1988 Current Population Survey ( cps) were used to develop the occupational distribution patterns for workers in agriculture, fishing, hunting, and trapping, and for private households, as well as to develop economywide estimates of self-employed and unpaid family workers by occupation. O ccupational distribution patterns for the Federal G ov ern m en t w ere d e v elo p ed by the O ffice o f P e rso n n e l Management. Data from the National Center for Education Statistics were used for teachers. In order to evaluate projections, the occupational em ployment data from the base year and the actual data from the target year must be comparable. The 1980 Standard Occu pational C lassification System (soc) underw ent a m ajor revision in the year 2000. The titles and content of the major occupational groups and many detailed occupations in the 2000 soc are now substantially different than they were in the previous version. Some major groups were renamed, com bined, or reorganized. Some individual occupations were re named or reclassified into different major groups. Many new occupations were added. Some were aggregated and some were split into more detail. Because of these changes, the oc cupations and major groups reflected in the 2000-10 national employment matrix are not comparable to those reflected in the 1988-2000 matrix. Owing to the revisions to the soc, the incomparability across occupations and major groups between 1988 and 2000 had to be addressed. A new industry-occupation matrix was created to get around the comparability problems. Actual employment data for 2000 were re-created for the purposes of the evaluation presented in the text by applying 1998 staffing patterns to the 2000 industry totals. Unlike the occupational structure, the industry structure had not changed between 1988 and 2000. Accordingly, the original 1988 and projected 2000 employment data published in 1989 were reconfigured to the 1998 occupational structure. Therefore, some of the occupational titles are not exactly the same as those published in the November 1989 Monthly Labor Review article. This incommensurability created by definitional changes limited the number of previous occupational employment projections that could be evaluated. Because the 2000 soc will be used until its next revision in 2010, the evaluations of projections made for 2005 and 2006 also will face the same type of comparability problems. In addition, comparability problems will be created when the 1987 Standard Industry Classification is replaced with the 2002 North American Industry Classification System as the new industry structure of the Occupational Outlook Handbook. As a result, new evaluation m ethods will be necessary to circumvent these problems. Occupations eliminated from the evaluation. Only 338 of the 500 occupations for which projections were made from 1988 to 2000 were evaluated. Occupations were eliminated from the evaluation primarily for three reasons. First, all residual occupations, such as “all other m anagers,” were dropped. Second, occupations whose definitions were not consistent between 1988 and 1998 due to changes in the occupational or industrial classification system were elim inated. Third, the list of occupations was confined to those employing more than 25,000 workers in 1988, because only those occupations were published in the original employment projections article that appeared in the N ovem ber 1989 Monthly Labor Review} Other data errors. The discussion in the text of the article, as well as in this technical note, has focused on errors in individual projections that can be traced to incorrectly forecasted changes in staffing patterns or incorrect industry projections. Also, comparability problems stemming from inconsistencies in the occupational classification system over time were highlighted. It is important to bear in mind, however, that other data problems exist and that differences in actual and projected employment levels are not always due to projection errors. Consequently, real employment trends in an occupation may not necessarily be measured by comparable surveys 10 years apart.2 Moreover, although survey data are generally considered reliable, sampling and response errors certainly had an impact on the data in both the initial and the terminal years of the projection period evaluated. Notes to the appendix 1 See George Silvestri and John Lukasiewicz, “Projections o f occupational em ploym ent, 1 9 8 8 -2 0 0 0 ,” M o n t h l y L a b o r R e v i e w , November 1989, pp. 42-65. 2 For four decades, the Bureau o f Labor Statistics developed projections in which the target year always ended in a zero or a five. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Projections were prepared every other year, resulting in two, and sometimes three, sets of projections being prepared for the same target year. As a consequence, the projection horizon could be as short as 10 years or as long as 15 years. Beginning with the 1996-2006 projections presented in the November 1997 M o n th ly L a b o r R e v i e w , projections have been developed for a 10-year period only. Monthly Labor Review October 2003 37 Program Reports CES program: changes planned for hours and earnings series cash payments such as bonuses and stock options. Impetus for the changes Patricia M. Getz A ll-em ployee hours and earnings. 1he Current Employment Statistics (CES) program produces m onthly estimates of nonfarm payroll employment, hours, and earnings for the Nation, States, and m ajo r m e tro p o lita n areas in considerable industry detail. These data are among the earliest and most closely watched economic indicator series. In addition, the CES publishes monthly series on women workers by industry. Currently, CES average weekly hours and average hourly earnings series, and their derivatives, such as the index of aggregate hours, are limited to covering production and nonsupervisory workers in the private sector. A production worker concept is used for the goods-producing industries, and a nonsupervisory worker concept for the service-providing industries. The earnings are defined as “regular earnings” and, as such, they exclude bonuses and other irregular payments. T Plans for change The Bureau of Labor Statistics plans two major changes to the data series available from CES. These changes follow several years of research, testing, and consultation with m ajor data users. The principal aspects of the changes are: • Expansion of the hours and earn ings series to cover all employees rather than ju st production and nonsupervisory workers. • D iscontinuation o f the wom en worker series. • Potential addition of a total wages series, that will include nonwage Patricia M. Getz is Chief, Division of Current Employment Statistics, Bureau o f Labor Statistics. E-mail: getz_p@bls.gov 38 Monthly Labor Review October 2003 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Virtually all major CES data users have expressed interest in and support for broadening the scope of worker cover age for the c e s hours and earnings series. By covering all employees rather th a n ju s t the p ro d u c tio n and n o n supervisory workers, the new c e s series will provide more comprehensive and therefore m ore valuable inform ation about trends in the hours and earnings of nonfarm wage and salary workers. In ad d itio n , it w ill pro v id e b e tte r in formation for other economic data series which use CES data as input, especially the b l s p roductivity series and the personal income segment of the national income and product accounts produced by the Bureau of Economic Analysis. Another impetus for the transition to an all employee definition is the increasing difficulty that many respondents have compiling information for the production and nonsupervisory worker definitions presently used by the CES program. Most payroll recordkeeping does not allow for the easy identification of workers defined by the CES categories of production and nonsupervisory w orkers. These ca t egories simply are not meaningful to employers and records are not kept for these groupings of workers. This leads to a relatively high item nonresponse rate for payroll and hours data, compared with the all-employee data item. Pilot te sts h av e in d ic a te d th a t m o st re sp o n d e n ts w o u ld fin d it less b u r densome to compile payroll and hours information for all employees than for the production/nonsupervisory worker categories. Women workers. BLS plans to discon tinue the co llectio n and publication o f w om en worker series concurrent with the start o f all-em p loyee payroll and hours collection. Elim inating this data item will reduce the response burden for c e s sample members at a time when they are being asked to add total pay roll and hours inform ation. There is little dem and for the CES women worker series; the m ajor focus of CES data users is for inform ation by industry and geography. CES provides a g re a t a m o u n t o f in d u stry and g e o g ra p h ic d e ta il, b u t no o th e r demographic breakouts beyond women workers. The Current Population Survey (CPS), which provides monthly data on the labor force and unemployment rate, is a much richer source for demographic information. The CPS is a large house hold survey which as a result o f its detailed respondent interviews, supplies abundant information by gender, age, race, and other demographic character istics. Total wages. A third potential change is u nder co n sid eratio n fo r the CES program — addition o f a total wages series. A to tal w ages series w ould include items such as bonuses, stock options, and employer contributions to 401(k) plans— items that currently are not included in the CES average hourly series. Both the currently published average hourly earnings series for pro duction/nonsupervisory w orkers and the planned series for all employees, measure regular earnings— wages earn ed and paid each pay period. Bonuses and other nonwage cash paym ents are excluded unless earned and paid each pay period. Because it would be a more compre hensive m easure of w orker com pen sation, a total wages series would be of particu lar interest to the B ureau of E conom ic A nalysis for input to its p e rso n a l in co m e se rie s and to governm ent revenue forecasters who use c o m p e n sa tio n to p re d ic t tax revenues. Presently, BLS is evaluating the feasibility of adding total wages collection to the CES survey, in terms of cost and operational issues as well as respondent burden considerations. A final decision has not been made on whether c e s will publish a total wages series. Timetable for introduction All-employee hours and earnings. BLS plans to tran sitio n from production/ nonsupervisory worker hours and earn ings to all-employee hours and earnings in two stages. This plan will provide a m u ltiy ear overlap betw een the two series. Stage 1 -T he new hours and earnings series added for all employees will be published beginning in early 2006. The current production and nonsupervisory worker series also will continue to be publish ed . The retain in g o f current concepts should m ake the transition sm oother for data users and for b l s , especially given that there will not be historical time series data available for the new all-employee-based hours and earnings series. Stage 2 - A fter the all-em ployee hours and earnings series becom e well established with users, and there is a sufficient history to perm it seasonal adjustm ent, the production/nonsupervisory worker series will be discontinued. b l s tentatively plans to drop these series in 2009. Elimination o f women worker series. T he w o m en w o rk e r se rie s w ill be discontinued after publication o f the December 2004 estimates in early 2005. R espondents w ill be asked to begin rep o rtin g all-em p lo y ee p ay ro ll and h o u rs in e a rly 2 0 0 5 an d to d ro p reporting of wom en workers. P otential addition o f a total wages series. BLS expects to decide by early 2004 w hether to add this series to the program . If the decision is posi tive, the series w ill likely be added in early 2006, concurrent with the all CES https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis em ployee average weekly hours and average hourly earnings series. Concurrent seasonal adjustment for national CES survey Chris Manning he Current Employment Statistics ( ces ) survey, co n d u cted by the Bureau of Labor Statistics, is a m onth ly survey of more than 400,000 busi ness establishm ents. The ces program obtains payroll employment, hours, and earn in g s in fo rm atio n and produces industry-based estim ates for the Na tion, States, and major metropolitan areas. The national ces estimates of employment, hours, and earnings are some of the most timely and sensitive economic indicators published by the Federal Government. Widely viewed as a key measure of the health of the economy, the estimates are closely tracked by both public and pri vate policymakers alike. Most ces data users are interested in the seasonally adjusted over-the-month em p lo y m en t ch anges as a prim ary m easure of overall national economic trends. Therefore, accurate seasonal adjustment is an important component in the usefulness of these monthly data. W hile seasonally adjusted series go through several m onthly revisions and an annual benchmark revision before they are finalized, the first published estimates are the m ost w idely anticipated and analyzed. Thus, it is important to use the most efficient and reliable methods for seasonal adjustment of current m onths’ data. In the past, the ces program employed seasonal adjustment methodology that applied forecasted seasonal factors to the employment estimate. Twice a year, T Chris Manning is an economist in the Division of Current Employment Statistics, Bureau of Labor Statistics. E-mail:manning.chris@bls.gov. seasonal factors were forecasted for 6 months into the future and applied to the n o n seaso n ally -ad ju sted e s tim a te s during the next 6 m onths. However, sim ultaneously with the ces survey’s c o n v ersio n to the N o rth A m erican Industry Coding System ( n a ic s ) with the p u b lic a tio n o f M ay 2003 firs t prelim inary estim ates, the survey con verted to concurrent seasonal adjust m ent. U nder this m ethodology, new seasonal factors are calculated each month, using all relevant data up to and including the current month. This article com pares the two seasonal adjustm ent m ethodologies, exam ines results from recent research evaluating each of them, and discusses some implications of the ces conversion to concurrent seasonal adjustment. Background on CES estimates One of the benefits of the ces program is the timeliness of its estimates, ces es timates are published each month after only 2!/2 weeks of data collection. The prim ary deadline for data receip ts, referred to as “first closing,” is the last Friday o f the reference m onth, and prelim inary estim ates are generally published on the first Friday following the reference m onth. In order to in corporate additional sample responses received after the primary deadline, each estim ate undergoes tw o m onthly re visions before being fin alized. The secondary cutoff, or “second closing,” is usually 3 weeks after the prim ary deadline, and the third deadline, or “third closing,” is 3 weeks after the second. Therefore, for any given reference month, second-closing estimates are published the following month, and third-closing e stim a te s are p u b lish e d 2 m o n th s afterwards. ces estim ates also undergo annual revisions called benchmarks. Each year, the sam ple-based estim ates for the previous year are adjusted to universe employment counts derived from State Monthly Labor Review October 2003 39 unem ploym ent insurance tax records. This adjustm ent constitutes the final estimate for all reference months in the benchmark period. C ustom arily, the June ces p u b li cation incorporates annual benchmark revisions that include a recalculation of seasonally adjusted data for the most recent 5 years. After 5 years of seasonal adjustment revisions, figures are frozen. For example, the March 2002 benchmark revision, published in June 2003, pro vided revised seasonally adjusted data for 1998 through the first quarter of 2003. Beginning in 2004, the annual bench mark revision will be incorporated in Feb ruary instead of June. To seasonally adjust the estimates, the ces program uses x-12 a r im a soft w are developed by the U .S. Census Bureau. U nder the old methodology, se a s o n a l a d ju s tm e n t fa c to rs w ere recalculated semiannually, in April and November, and projected factors for the next 6 months were published in June and December of each year. Under the new methodology, seasonal factors are calculated each month, using all relevant data up to and including the current month. Projected seasonal factors are neither published nor used. Research approach During the last few years preceding the sw itc h to c o n c u rre n t se a so n a l a d justm ent, the Bureau of Labor Statistics researched the impact that a change in se a s o n a l a d ju stm e n t m e th o d o lo g y would have both on the ces data and on data users. Each month, parallel to the monthly production of ces seasonally ad ju sted d ata w ith p ro je c te d -fac to r methodology, the ces program would run con cu rren t seasonal adju stm en t for research purposes. The parallel tests w ere structured in such a way as to measure only the effect o f incorporating additional months of data into the sea sonal adjustm ent process. To do this, the Bureau kept as m any variables as 40 Monthly Labor Review October 2003 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis possible constant. For exam ple, standard ces practice requires that 10 years of historical data be used as input to the x-1 2 a r im a model. The same historical input data set was used for both seasonal adjustment runs. T h e re fo re , any p rio r a d ju stm e n ts o rig in a lly m ade to the data during p ro d u ctio n , such as adjustm ents to account for strikes or for editing and screening, were included in the research simulations as well. The only difference in inputs between the two runs was that c o n c u rre n t ad ju stm e n t also in c o r porated up to 5 months of additional estim ates in calculating the seasonal factors. In the p arallel series, the in co r poration of revised seasonal factors was handled within the normal ces monthly revisions procedures, ces methodology dictates that, with the calculation of firstclosing estimates for a current month, the second- and third-closing estimates for the previous 2 months be revised on an u n ad ju sted basis to inco rp o rate further sample receipts. In the parallel series, the concurrent seasonally ad justed data were recalculated by using revised second- and third-closing esti mates, mirroring the production process under the projected-factor methodology. Finally, all published data types were seasonally adjusted under both m eth ods; however, because the all-employee series is the most closely watched series published by the ces program, it is the focus of this report. m o n th c h a n g e s o f th e se a so n a lly adjusted employment figures for total nonfarm employment from January 2001 to June 2002 for the two methodologies. The dashed line shows the third-closing over-the-month changes calculated un der the projected-factor methodology (that is, what was published), while the solid line shows the same kind of chang es for the concurrently adjusted series (that is, what the over-the-month chang es would have been if the ces had been using concurrent seasonal adjustm ent at that time). As the graph illustrates, c o n c u rre n t a d ju stm e n t p ro d u c e s a slightly smoother seasonally adjusted series, with less variability in the overthe-month changes. The fo llo w in g ta b u la tio n o f the “smoothness ratio” for January 2001 through June 2002 u n d erscores the smoothness of the concurrent seasonally adjusted em ploym ent series for total nonfarm plus all nine industry divisions, as defined and published under the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification (sic) system: S m o o th n ess s ic g r o u p r a tio T otal nonfarm e m p lo y m e n t..... 0.67 M in in g .............................................................77 C o n s tru c tio n ..................................................47 M a n u fa c tu rin g .............................................. 87 T ran sp o rtatio n and public u tilities . 78 W holesale t r a d e ............................................88 R etail t r a d e .................................................... 56 F inance, insurance, and real e s t a te . .68 S e rv ic e s........................................................... 58 G o v e rn m e n t...................................................67 Results In this section, the two m ethods are compared in terms of (1) the smoothness o f the seasonally adjusted series, (2) mean absolute revisions to the over-themonth changes evident from the first preliminary estimate to the benchmarked series, and (3) the variation between monthly revisions. With regard to the sm o o th n e ss o f the se rie s, c h a rt 1 com pares the third-closing over-the- The smoothness ratio is a measure of variability in the third-closing over-themonth change in the seasonally adjusted estimate. The calculation compares the sum o f the squared over-the-m onth changes in the concurrent seasonally adjusted series w ith the sum o f the squared over-the-month changes in the projected-factor seasonally adjusted series. A sm oothness ratio below 1 in d icates th at co n cu rren t seasonal https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review October 2003 41 adjustment has less variability in the overthe-month changes than does a series ad ju sted under p ro je c te d -fac to r methodology. As the tabulation illustrates, co n c u rre n t ad ju stm en t pro d u ces a smoother seasonally adjusted employ ment series for total nonfarm plus all nine in d u stry d iv isio n s. T hese resu lts, combined with the results shown in chart 1, indicate that concurrent seasonal ad justment produces employment series with less variability in the over-the-month changes. To this point, the results examined have focused solely on estim ates of seasonally adjusted over-the-m onth changes in employment. Also of interest is the revision to the estim ate of the seasonally adjusted over-the-m onth change, both from first closing to the final benchmarked series and between monthly closings. Table 1 illustrates the size of the mean absolute revision to the over-the-m onth change from the first prelim inary to the final benchmarked em ploym ent series for all nine major industry divisions and their topside aggregate, total nonfarm. In the table, the second colum n show s the m ean absolute revision in the over-the-month change calculated under the projectedfactor m ethodology for M arch 1998 through M arch 2001, while the third colum n shows the same variable cal culated under the concurrent-adjustment methodology. The fourth column shows the difference between the two method ologies (concurrent adjustment minus Table 1. Mean absolute revision in over-the-month changes in employment, March 1998-March 2001 SIC g ro u p Total nonfarm.................................... Mining....................................................... Construction............................................. Manufacturing.......................................... Transportation and public utilities.............. Wholesale trade........................................ Retail trade............................................... Finance, insurance, and real estate......... Services................................................... Government............................................. 42 projected-factor adjustment). As the table indicates, ces employment estimates that are seasonally adjusted under the con current method have a smaller revision from first-closing estim ates to final benchmarked series in eight of the nine industry divisions plus total nonfarm. Only in wholesale trade was the revision statistic larger for concurrent adjustment, and that by just 0.2 percent. In addition to being concerned over a smaller revision between first closing and the final benchmarked series, economists and data users see revisions in the overthe-month changes between closings as potentially problematic. In particular, these monthly revisions between closings can increase under concurrent adjustm ent because the seasonal factors can change w ith each iteratio n o f the m onthly adjustm ent process. However, results indicate that, in addition to producing a smaller revision between first closing and th e fin al b en ch m ark ed series, concurrent seasonal adjustment leads to equal or even less variability in the overthe-month changes between closings. Chart 2 shows the revision to the over-the-m onth change between sea sonally adjusted first-closing and sec ond-closing total nonfarm employment estim ates under both m ethods. The dashed line represents the revision to the over-the-month change between first and second closing published under the projected-factor methodology, while the solid line depicts the same revision for the concurrently adjusted series. The Monthly Labor Review October 2003 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P ro je c te d fa c to r series 77,973 1,892 22,892 13,757 7,892 11,135 32,162 6,919 38,784 23,135 C oncurrent series 64,973 1,865 17,838 12,487 6,568 11,162 21,946 5,703 29,703 17,432 graph illustrates that, in general, the c o n c u rre n t m e th o d o lo g y lead s to slightly less variability in the seasonally adjusted over-the-month changes bet ween revisions. Results were similar for revisions between first and third closing. The following tabulation presents a comparison of mean and mean absolute revisions in over-the-m onth-changes betw een closings from M arch 1998 through March 2002 for the ces series seaso n ally ad ju sted u nder the p ro jected-factor methodology and for the same series adjusted concurrently: T ype o f P r o je c te d - r e v is io n factor s e r ie s C on- m f_ cu rren t fe re n c e s e r ie s F irst closing to second closing: M ean re v is io n .. M ean absolute re v is io n .......... -4 -7 -3 37 34 -3 F irst closing to third closing: M ean re v isio n . M ean absolute re v is io n .......... 19 4 -15 48 36 -12 As the tab u latio n show s, the m ean revision and the mean absolute revision in the over-the-m onth change do not differ between first closing and second closing across the two methods. How ever, from first closing to third closing, both the mean revision and the mean absolute revision are smaller in the con currently adjusted series. Com bined with the information illustrated in chart 2, these results suggest that concurrent seasonal adjustment does not increase the size of revisions between closings. D iffe re n c e -13,000 -27 -5,054 -1,270 -1,324 27 -10,216 -1,216 -9,081 -5,703 Evaluation of concurrent seasonal adjustment Concurrent seasonal adjustment has a number of advantages and at least one potential disadvantage. P erhaps the greatest advantage of concurrent sea sonal adjustment is that it affords more accurate seasonal factors. Concurrent seaso n al ad ju stm en t is tech n ically superior to the projected-factor method ology because it takes into account the timeliest information available. Empirical results from the analysis set forth in this article illustrate the fact that seasonally adjusted ces data are closer to the final benchm arked series under concurrent adjustm ent than under the projectedfactor methodology, leading to smaller rev isio n s betw een first p relim in ary estimates and the final benchmark series. Furthermore, monthly revisions between first closing and third closing are slightly lower under concurrent adjustment. Second, using concurrent seasonal adjustment w ill be especially advan tageous during the first few years fol lo w in g the ces con version to n a ic s , because m ost o f the naics historical data were reconstructed from the sic-based sample. Only 2 years of naics history from a NAics-based sam ple was available. Therefore, under the projected-factor method, in the first year o f the naics conversion only two historical NAics-based estimates per month would have been used to calculate projected seasonal factors. However, under the concurrent seasonal adjustment m ethodology, three actual NAics-based estim ates are used each https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis month (the previous two years of NAicsbased estimates plus the current one). The additional observations are valuable because x-12 a r im a weights the most recent years more heavily than the past in calculating seasonal factors. Third, as mentioned earlier, the ces program traditionally revises two prior months of estimates with each current month’s release. As part of the monthly production process under projected-factor methodology, non-seasonally-adjusted estimates were revised for the previous 2 months, and in the past, projected seasonal factors were applied to the revised estimates to calculate the new seasonally adjusted figures. Under concurrent seasonal ad justment, no additional revisions occur, nonseasonally-adjusted estim ates for the previous 2 months are still revised as before, and the seasonally adjusted data for these months are based on these revisions. Finally, one potential disadvantage of concurrent seasonal adjustment is that seasonal factors are not available ahead of time. As has been mentioned, the ces program traditionally calculated seasonal factors twice a year, and projected factors for the next 6 months were published in advance. Under concurrent seasonal ad justment, the program does not publish factors in advance, because the new seasonal factors are calculated each month. However, upon request, the Bureau does make available the specifications of the a r im a model used by the ces program so that the seasonal adjustment run can be replicated if desired. seve r a l years of research , the Current Employment Statistics program converted from projected-factor seasonal adjustment to concurrent seasonal ad justment with the publication of the May 2003 first preliminary estimates in June of that year. The research done with the national ces employment series indicates that the ces survey should benefit from the conversion to concurrent adjustment through smaller revisions to the overthe-month changes from the first closing estim ates to the final benchm arked estimates. As the research indicated, con current adjustment did not increase the size of revisions between closings and actually reduced revisions from first closing to third closing, producing a sm oother, m ore p recise seasonally adjusted series. Expectations are that concurrent seasonal adjustm ent w ill continue to produce a smoother published series in the future. □ A fter Monthly Labor Review October 2003 43 Precis Intra-regio nal differences in recession Valuing the intangibles B usiness cycle analysis m ost often focuses on national economies. But, to borrow an aphorism from the political arena, all economics are local. Theodore M. Crone recognizes this as he discusses recent econom ic trends and business cycles in Delaware, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania in the Federal Reserve Bank o f Philadelphia Business Review. After using a statistical filter to separate trend from cycle in economic activity indexes for the three States, Crone describes the often significant differences that occur even in contiguous locales. The most obvious difference in trend is the slower growth in that component of Pennsylvania’s economy. This in part reflects the very slow growth of the labor force in the C om m onw ealth and an absolute decline in the trend component of economic activity during the early 1980s. T hat perio d was m arked by severe recessions and w idespread structural change that had a significant impact on a State economy so dominated by manu facturing industries as Pennsylvania’s. A s C rone exam ines the cy clical com ponent of economic activity, it also appears that Pennsylvania’s cyclical downturns have been more severe than those of the Nation as a whole. On the other hand, New Jersey ’s downturns were less severe than the N ation’s for the most part. Delaware’s cyclical pattern was very different, according to Crone: “Delaware suffered one long cyclical dow nturn between August 1979 and August 1982— a period that spanned two downturns for the N ation and for the other two States in the region. Despite the length of the cyclical downturn in Delaware in the early 1980s, the cyclical decline in Delaware was less severe than the decline at the national level between 1981 and 1983.” More recently, Delaware has had longer and larger cyclical losses than the Nation. As Crone points out, the duration of a cyclical downturn does not always correspond to its depth. In remarks to a Federal Reserve Bank of New York conference on statistical needs in the 21st century, Baruch Lev suggests that between one-half and two-thirds of the total market value of publicly held corporations may reflect the value of intangible assets— the concepts, ideas, research results, development projects, knowledge bases, and working methods that drive results in an information-based econom y. U nfortunately, says Lev, today’s accounting tools and standards do not them selves create very good information about investment in intang ible assets. As a result, there is what he characterizes as a “significant deteriora tion” in the analytical value of important financial statements, a systematic un dervaluation of firms that invest most heavily in creating intangible assets, and the misallocation of financial gains to persons with inside knowledge of the value of firms’ intangible investments. As a professor of finance and ac c o u n tin g , L e v ’s reco m m en d atio n s stress forming new standards for re cognition of those aspects of intangible investment that should affect the main body of a firm ’s financial statements or, perhaps as second best, for clearly dis closing intangible investments and their impacts. In a more recent working paper at the National Bureau of Economic research, Jason G. Cummins seeks to extend the frontier of research possible with the ac counting information currently available. In order to explore alternatives to realized market value as the metric from which to subtract tangible book value to create a measure of intangibles, Cummings also uses analysts’ profits forecasts, suitably discounted into the future, to create another measure of total valuation. This, in C um m ings opinion, reduces the analytical problems introduced by the fluctuations of the stock market. C um m ins then constructs a sop histicated econometric model to estimate the separate im pacts of tangible in Monthly Labor Review 44 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2003 vestment, information technology ( i t ) investment, and intellectual property investment on value. In his empirical approach, intangible capital is defined in terms of adjustment costs and is not a distinct input to production in the same sense as physical capital or labor. In Cummins’ words, “Rather intangible capital is the glue that creates value from the usual facto r in p u ts.” The results of his estim ation suggest that there is little, if any, intangible value created by investments in intellectual property or non-IT physical capital, but that intangible “organizational capital” created by it investm ent is rewarded with a 70-percent annual rate of return. Brains and the city The impact of a bachelor’s degree on average individual economic outcomes has b een q u ite w ell d o cu m en ted : W orkers w ho have g raduated from college are, on average, much less likely to be unemployed than are workers with less education and, when em ployed, have higher average earnings. Paul D. G ottlieb and M ichael Fogarty, in a contribution to Economic Development Quarterly, ask if there are similar effects at the m e tro p o lita n a re a le v e l o f aggregation. They find that, at least at the extremes, there are. In 1997, the most highly educated 10 metropolitan areas, as measured by the share of resident adults holding at least a bachelor’s degree had a per capita income level about 20 percent higher th an th e av e ra g e w h ile th e 10 m etropolitan areas w ith the low est proportions o f the adult population holding college degrees had per capita incomes about 12 percent lower than the average. And, as has been the case in many studies of individual income, the gap had widened over time: in 1980 the m ost ed ucated c ities, acco rd in g to G o ttlie b and F o g a rty , re c e iv e d a premium of about 12 percent and the least educated cities a penalty of only 3 percent. □ W om en a t Work: A Visual Essay https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis • Labor force participation • Full and part-tim e work • Patterns • O ccupations • Unem ploym ent • Earnings Women at Work ■ ■ The labor force participation rate for adult women rose dra matically during the 1970s and 1980s. Since then, growth in participation has slowed sub stantially. 1. The rate of growth in women's labor force participation has slowed Percent Percent The participation rate for adult m en has w aned over tim e, though the decline appears to have lev eled o ff in recen t years. The long-term decline largely reflects the trend to ward earlier retirement. Shaded areas represent recessions. S o u r c e : Bureau of Labor Statistics ■ ■ The unemployment rates for adult m en and adult women have track ed quite closely since the early 1980s. Prior to that time, the jobless rate for adult women tended to stay above that for men. The jobless rate for teenagers is much higher than that for adults, largely because they have less education and train ing, less experience, and tend to move in and out of the job market more frequently. 2. The unemployment rates for adult men and women have stayed quite close since the early 1980s Percent 25 Percent 25 Teenagers 20 20 15 15 Adult women 10 10 5 5 Adult men 0 Shaded areas represent recessions. S o u r c e : Bureau of Labor Statistics 46 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2003 0 Women are more than twice as likely as m en to w ork part time— that is, fewer than 35 hours per week. In 2002, about 25 p e rc e n t o f em p lo y ed women were part-time work ers, compared with 11 percent of employed men. 3. Women are more likely than men to work part time Percent Percent The proportion working part tim e changed relatively little for either wom en or m en in the 1970s and 1980s. (The bump in 1994 reflects defini tio n a l and m eth o d o lo g ical r e v is io n s to th e C u rre n t Population Survey.) Shaded areas represent recessions. Beginning in 1994, data reflect the introduction of a major redesign of the Current Population Survey. S o u r c e : Bureau of Labor Statistics Among women who work at some time during the year, the proportion working year round (50-52 weeks) and full time (35 hours or more per week) has in creased over the past several decades. Women have increas in g ly o p ted to w ork th ese schedules, partly due to eco nomic necessity, but also due to movement into occupations that are typified by year-round, full-time work. 4. Year-round, full-time work has risen rather steadily among women Percent Percent T he p ro p o rtio n fo r m en — which is considerably higher than that for women— showed little definitive movement until the early 1980s. Since then, it too has trended upward. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Data are collected in March and refer to the preceding calendar year. S o u r c e : Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 47 Women at Work ■ * ■ ■ ■ 48 In 1970, the im pact o f m ar ria g e and m o th e rh o o d on w om en’s labor force partici p atio n rates was strikingly evident. A t that tim e, their participation reached its ini tia l p e a k at a g e s 2 0 - 2 4 , dropped at ages 2 5 -3 4 , and then gradually rose to a sec ond peak at ages 4 5 -5 4 , b e fo re ta p e rin g o ff. W h en these points are plotted, the peaks and valleys resem ble the letter “M .” By 2002, this pattern of peaks and v alleys was no longer evident, as w om en had in creasingly added the role of w orker to their m ore trad i tional family responsibilities. Indeed, w om en’s labor force participation pattern by age now resem bles that of men. Women have made significant inroads into managerial occupa tions. Between 1972 and 2002, the proportion of managerial jobs held by women more than doubled, increasing from 20 to 46 percent. 5. Women's labor force participation patterns are now more like those of men Percent Percent Age S o u r c e : Bureau of Labor Statistics 6. The proportion of managers who are women has grown markedly Percent 100 80 Women still are underrepresented in many specific professions and overrepresented in others. For example, they comprise just 11 percent of engineers but 93 percent of registered nurses. Despite the movement of many wom en into m anagerial and professional jobs, they still are concentrated in clerical and ser vice jobs. Nearly one-half of women workers are employed in three occupational groups— sales (retail and personal ser vices), services, and administra tive support— compared with about one-fifth of male workers. Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Percent 60 40 20 Women as a percent of total employment in major occupations. S o u r c e : Bureau of Labor Statistics October 2003 The ratio o f w om en’s to m en ’s earnings (78 percent in 2002) has risen sharply since 1979 (63 percent). 7. In the 1980s and early 1990s, women's earnings increased substantially as a percent of men's Percent Percent The wom en’s-to-men’s earnings ratio for m inority w orkers is higher than for whites. In 2002, black women earned 91 percent of what black men did; among H ispanics, the earnings ratio was 88 percent. In contrast, white women’s earnings were 78 percent of white m en’s. Earnings are median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers. S o u r c e : Bureau of Labor Statistics The w om en’s-to-m en’s earn ings ratio has increased in ev ery major age group over the 1979-2002 period. The ratio is highest in the youngest age categories. 8. Women continue to earn less than men in every major age group Women's earnings as a percent of men's Women's earnings as a percent of men's Care should be taken in inter preting these data, however, as they provide only a snapshot of earnings patterns in 2002. Older women faced a different social and economic climate at the start of their work lives th an th a t w hich e x ists for young women today. Conse quently, the lifetime earnings p a tte rn o f to d a y ’s o ld e r women may not be a reliable guide to the lifetime earnings p attern o f to d a y ’s younger women. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Earnings are median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers. S o u r c e : Bureau of Labor Statistics Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 49 Women at Work ■ ■ ■ 50 Overall, real earnings for women 25 years and older increased by 28 percent from 1979-2002, while m e n ’s real earnings were little changed. 9. Percent change in real earnings, 1979-2002 -40 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 28 W omen with a high school d i ploma or more education experi enced an increase in real earnings. For men, only college graduates saw an increase; all other educa tion groups experienced a decline in real earnings. W hile women fared better than men over this time period, in part they were playing “catch up” to m en. The grow th in w om en’s earnings reflects in large part the fact that the proportion of work ing women with a college educa tion grew, more women moved into higher-paying m anagerial and p ro fe s s io n a l jo b s , and women began working year round in increasing numbers. The trend in real earnings since 1979 was more favorable for women than for men at all levels of education 60 70 Total, 25 years and older 33 Bachelor's degree and higher 13 n Women ■ Men 50 Some college or associate's degree -3 | High school graduates, no college -1 3 Less than a high school diploma -2 7 J__ .__ i__ i__ i__ i__ -40 -30 -20 -10 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 Percent change in real earnings, 1979-2002 Change in median usual weekly earnings of full-time wage and salary workers age 25 and older, adjusted using the CPI-U-RS. S o u r c e : Bureau of Labor Statistics O ctober 2003 Book Review Job problems of the poor Jobs fo r the Poor: Can Labor Demand Policies Help? By Timothy J. Bartik. New York, Russell Sage Foundation, and Kalamazoo, m i , W.E. Upjohn In stitute for Em ploym ent Research, 2001. 473 pp. $17.95/paperback. Although the author poses the subtitle of his work as a question, he is clearly convinced that the employment prob lem of poor persons and families cannot be solved without a labor demand policy of, as it turns out, massive proportions. In adapting the working-age population to the requirements of the labor market, the United States has chiefly relied on supply-side policies, such as training, education, the earned income tax credit, and job developm ent services at the lo cal level. These policies have not been ineffective so much as expensive, and, more importantly, they have not contrib uted very much to resolving the p o o r’s employment problem. The author’s only precedent for the magnitude o f a de mand-side labor-m arket policy is the Works Progress Administration, which was created during the Great Depres sion of the 1930s, and at its peak gave jobs to 3 m illion persons. In arguing for a large-scale labor dem and program , Bartik cites or develops some disturb ing facts about the employment situa tion of the poor, basing him self mainly upon data on unemployment and rates of labor force participation. Although the average unemployment rate declined to about 4 percent during the boom years of the 1990s, unemploy ment among poor Americans barely di minished (if B artik’s approach is fol lowed). Labor force participation, which does not include working-age persons neither employed nor looking for a job, generally remained lower among poor persons than am ong th eir non-poor peers. They are less likely than the lat ter to hold full-time, year-round jobs. They also account for a relatively large proportion of high school dropouts or https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis high school graduates who do not go to college. In figuring the employment needs of poor persons 25-54 years old (the most active working-age range), Bartik begins by calculating the changes between 1979 and 1998 in the employment-population rates o f high school dropouts and high school graduates without a college de gree— classified by gender, race, and marital status. For males, these rates sharply decreased between the 2 years; for fem ales, the rates generally rose somewhat, but they remained well be low those for w hite (non-H ispanic) males in 1979 at the indicated educational levels. Bartik’s norm for job creation of the poor are these 1979 employment rates— which, if attained again, would spell about 5.2 million additional jobs for male and unmarried female poor persons in their prime working age. Yet, this w ould not exhaust the em ploym ent needs of poor families: if every such (non-elderly) family had one breadwin ner holding a full-time, year-round job, altogether more than 8 million additional jobs for the poor would be required at the indicated educational levels. The fig ure may be viewed as a measure of un deremployment in the United States. It is bolstered by such statistics as the unemployment rate among former welfare benefit recipients— 31.4 percent in 1998; among blacks, the official rate was 8.9 percent, nearly twice the overall rate; and in 50 of the Nation’s 329 metro politan areas it was 6 percent or higher. Moreover, Bartik reports, a large pro portion o f workers found themselves disadvantaged by an inability to match their low skills or lack of education to available jobs. Thirty-five to 45 percent of high school dropouts are estimated to have such “mismatch” problems. It is not clear, however, if jobs can be adapted to overcome these problem s— unless unceasing efforts are made on the sup ply side of the labor market (as Bartik defines it). Be it noted that he does not by any means dismiss such efforts. Jobs for the poor are jobs in the low -w age sectors o f the econom y. Will low w ages lift poor w orkers out o f poverty? To the extent that they do not, Bartik would supplem ent them by the refundable (earned income) tax credit; he also counts food-stam p en titlements and, for former clients of the w elfare system , earnings disregards (which allow phase-ins of partial ben efits to supplem ent earnings). Yet, the threshold at which persons or fam ilies are considered no longer poor is defined meagerly. It was origi nally based on the low est cost “nutri tionally adequate” diet, as calculated by the D epartm ent of A griculture; that cost was then m ultiplied by three, on the assum ption that tw o-thirds o f a perso n ’s or fam ily’s incom e w ould go for nonfood goods and services. A f ter 1968, however, the threshold was d e te rm in e d sim p ly by th e a n n u al change in the Consum er Price Index (as revealed subsequently). In 1998, the poverty threshold for a family of three— for example, a mother and two children— was around $ 13,000. The expenditure budgets of poor fami lies suggest that the official poverty thresholds “underestimate [their] needs by roughly 25 percent” (according to C hristopher Jencks in Making Ends Meet, by Kathryn Edin and Laura Klein). Edin and Klein have calculated (from a lim ited survey) that expenditures of “wage-reliant” mothers in the early 1990s exceed their (low) wages by one-third. However these extra expenditures are covered, they are not covered by a “liv ing wage”— also discussed briefly by Bartik, and praised by the message it conveys that “working people should not live in poverty.” But he dismisses the living-wage movement (confined by urban legislators to the employees of local contractors doing business in rela tively few cities) as limited— causing firms subject to such ordinances to move to other locations within metropolitan areas. And the earned income tax credit, stressed by Bartik as an important low- Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 51 Book Reviews wage supplement, and unquestionably of importance to recipients, covers but a small part o f the excess of needful ex penditures over income (judging by the relevant data published in the Green Book 2000 by the U.S. House of Repre sentatives). Bartik may be somewhat too optimistic in asserting that, together with (low) earnings, earnings supplements would be “surprisingly effective in bring ing poor families out of poverty.” Two considerations may be advanced regard ing this statement. One is that the reser vation wage o f unemployed or nonemployed persons may often be calculated a g a in s t n e e d s ra th e r th a n p o v erty thresholds plus supplements. More im portant perhaps is the consideration that the escape from poverty of which Bartik speaks depends on full-time, full-year jobs. Yet, he also notes that a large pro portion o f unemployed as well as nonemployed persons in their prime work ing age hold jobs but half the year. They are evidently unable to find steady work. He reports that, in 1995,14 Harlem resi 52 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis dents applied at every fast-food restau rant opening; three-quarters of them were still unemployed a year later, de spite their willingness to accept minimum-wage jobs. He writes that “high unemployment rates appear to reflect a shortage of available jobs and lead to lengthy unemployment and nonemploy ment spells for some workers.” Bartik advocates a two-tier labor-de mand policy— one to increase aggregate labor demand so as to ensure full em ployment, the other consisting of pro grams targeted on labor demand for poor persons. As to the first tier, he would subsidize employers for hiring new work ers, regardless of such w orkers’ eco nomic status. He would give priority to high-unemployment local labor markets. The subsidies he proposes would espe cially favor small businesses and public and nonprofit employers. As to the second tier, he would par ticularly address the employment prob lems of persons who tend to be outside the labor force, offering them supply- O ctober 2003 side services, such as training or mental healthcare. He would design subsidized job slots to encourage such workers to enter the regular job market, paying them below-market wages until they do so. There are other relevant proposals, in cluding how to overcome political op p o sitio n , w hich need not d etain us here. B a rtik ’s w ork is th o ro u g h ly re searched, evidenced by numerous ap pendices and notes. It is definitive in its discussion of the numerous programs conducted since the 1970s to deal with the predicament of poor person’s and families’ employment problems. It is in dispensable for anyone concerned with relieving poverty in America by creating truly full employment. It attests the de votion of the author to help resolve this great social problem. — Horst Brand formerly with the Bureau of Labor Statistics Current Labor Statistics Notes on labor statistics ............. ( p: . 54 Labor compensation and collective bargaining data—continued 66 28. E m ploym ent C ost Index, p rivate nonfarm w orkers, by bargaining status, region, and area s i z e ....................... 29. Participants in b enefit plans, m edium and large f i r m s ...... 30. P articipants in benefits plans, sm all firm s and g o v e rn m e n t.............................................................................. 31. W ork stoppages involving 1,000 w orkers o r m o r e ............ Comparative indicators 1. L abor m ark et in d ic a to r s ........................................................ 2. A nnual and quarterly percent changes in com pensation, prices, and p ro d u c tiv ity .................... 3. A lternative m easures o f w ages and com pensation c h a n g e s ...................................................... 67 67 Labor force data 4. E m ploym ent status o f the population, seasonally a d ju s te d ........................................................... 5. S elected em p lo y m en t indicators, seasonally a d ju s te d ........................................................... 6. S elected unem p lo y m en t indicators, seasonally a d ju s te d ........................................................... 7. D uration o f unem ploym ent, seasonally a d ju s te d ........................................................... 8. U nem ployed persons by reason for unem ploym ent, seasonally a d ju s te d ........................................................... 9. U nem ploym ent rates by sex and age, seasonally a d ju s te d ........................................................... 10. U nem ploym ent rates by States, seasonally a d ju s te d ............................................................ 11. E m ploym ent o f w orkers by States, seasonally a d ju s te d ............................................................ 12. E m ploym ent o f w orkers by industry, seasonally a d ju s te d ............................................................ 13. A verage w eekly hours by industry, seasonally a d ju s te d ............................................................ 14. A verage h ourly earn ings by industry, seasonally a d ju s te d ............................................................. 15. A verage hourly earnings by in d u s try ................................ 16. A verage w eekly earnings by in d u s try .............................. 17. D iffusion indexes o f em ploym ent change, seasonally a d ju s te d ............................................................ 18. E stablishm ent size and em ploym ent covered under ui, private ow nership, by n a ics su p e rse c to r.................. 19. A nnual data establishm ent, em ploym ent, and w ages, covered under u i and UCFE, by o w n e rs h ip ................. 20. A nnual data: E stablishm ents, em ploym ent, and w ages covered u nder u i and u c f e , by S t a t e ...... 21. A nnual data: E m ploym ent and average annual pay o f ui- and ucFE-covered w orkers, by largest counties .. 22. A nnual data: E m ploym ent status o f the population ... 23. A nnual data: E m ploym ent levels by in d u s try ............... 24. A nnual data: A verage hours and earnings level, by in d u s tr y ......................................................................... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 97 98 Price data 68 69 70 70 71 71 72 72 73 76 77 78 79 80 81 82 32. C onsum er Price Index: U .S. city average, by expenditure category and com m odity and service g r o u p s .................. 99 33. C onsum er P rice Index: U .S. city average and local data, all it e m s ................................................................... 102 34. A nnual data: C onsum er P rice Index, all item s and m ajor g ro u p s ....................................................................... 103 35. P roducer P rice Indexes by stage o f p r o c e s s in g .................... 104 36. P roducer P rice Indexes fo r the net o utput o f m ajor industry g ro u p s ........................................................................... 105 37. A nnual data: P roducer Price Indexes by stage o f p ro c e s sin g ............................................................. 106 38. U .S. export price indexes by S tandard International T rade C la s s ific a tio n ................................................................. 106 39. U .S. im port p rice indexes by S tandard International T rade C la s s ific a tio n ................................................................. 107 40. U .S. export price indexes by end-use c a te g o ry ................... 108 41. U .S. im port price indexes by end-use c a te g o r y .................. 108 42. U .S .international price indexes fo r selected categories o f s e rv ic e s..................................................................108 Productivity data 43. Indexes o f productivity, hourly com pensation, and un it costs, data seasonally a d ju s te d ........................... 44. A nnual indexes o f m ultifactor p ro d u c tiv ity .......................... 45. A nnual indexes o f productivity, hourly com pensation, un it costs, and p r i c e s .............................................................. 46. A nnual indexes o f output p er h o u r for selected in d u s trie s..................................................................................... 109 110 111 112 83 84 88 88 89 Labor compensation and collective bargaining data 25. E m ploym ent C ost Index, com pensation, by occupation and industry g ro u p ...................................... 26. E m ploym ent C ost Index, w ages and salaries, by occupation and industry g ro u p ...................................... 27. E m ploym ent C ost Index, benefits, private in d u s try ......... 95 96 International comparisons data 47. U nem ploym ent rates in nine countries, data seasonally a d ju s te d ......................................................... 115 48. A nnual data: E m ploym ent status o f the civilian w orking-age p opulation, 10 c o u n trie s................................ 116 49. A nnual indexes o f productivity and related m easures, 12 c o u n tr ie s ................................................................................ 117 Injury and illness data 90 50. A nnual data: O ccupational injury and illness incidence r a t e s ............................................................................ 118 92 94 51. F atal occupational injuries by event o r ex p o su re ...................................................................................... 120 Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 53 Notes on Current Labor Statistics T his section o f the Review presents the p rin cip a l sta tistic a l series c o llected and calc u la te d by th e B u re a u o f L a b o r S ta tistic s: series on la b o r force; em ploym ent; un em ploym ent; la b o r com p en satio n ; consum er, p ro d u cer, an d in tern atio n al prices; p ro d u c tivity; in tern atio n al com parisons; and injury an d illness statistics. In the notes th at fo l low , th e d a ta in e a c h g ro u p o f tab les are b riefly d escribed; key d efin itio n s are given; n o tes on the d ata are set forth; and sources o f ad d itio n al in fo rm atio n are cited. General notes T h e fo llo w in g n o tes apply to several tables in th is section: Seasonal adjustment. C ertain m onthly and q u arterly d a ta are adjusted to elim inate th e e ffe c t o n the d a ta o f such factors as c li m a tic c o n d it io n s , in d u s tr y p r o d u c tio n sch ed u les, o p en in g and clo sin g o f schools, h o lid ay bu y in g p erio d s, and vacatio n p ra c tices, w hich m ight p rev en t short-term evalu atio n o f th e statistic a l series. T ables c o n taining data that h av e been adjusted are iden tifie d as “ seasonally a d ju sted .” (A ll o th er d a ta are n o t seasonally adjusted.) S easonal effects are e stim ated on the basis o f cu rren t and p a st ex p erien ces. W h en new seasonal facto rs are co m p u ted e ach year, revisions m ay a ffe c t seaso n ally adjusted d a ta fo r sev eral p reced in g y ears. S easonally adjusted data appear in tables 1 -1 4 , 1 6 -1 7 , 43, an d 47. S e a so n a lly a d ju s te d la b o r force d ata in tables 1 and 4 -9 w ere re v ise d in the M arch 2003 issue o f the Review. S easo n ally adju sted estab lish m en t survey d a ta show n in tables 1, 1 2 -1 4 and 1 6 -1 7 w ere re v ise d in the July 2003 Review. A b rie f ex p lan a tio n o f the seasonal ad ju st m e n t m eth o d o lo g y appears in “ N otes on the d ata.” R e v is io n s in th e p ro d u c tiv ity d a ta in tab le 49 are u sually intro d u ced in the S ep te m b e r issue. S easonally adjusted indexes and p e rc e n t ch an g es from m on th -to -m o n th an d q u arte r-to -q u a rte r are p u b lish ed fo r n u m erous C o n su m er and P ro d u cer P rice Index se rie s. H o w e v e r, se a s o n a lly a d ju s te d in dexes are n o t pu b lish ed fo r the U .S. average A ll-Item s CPI. O nly seasonally adjusted p er ce n t ch an g es are availab le fo r this series. Adjustments for price changes. Som e data— such as the “re a l” earnings show n in tab le 14— are adju sted to e lim in ate th e ef fe c t o f ch an g es in p rice. T h ese adjustm ents are m ad e by div id in g cu rren t-d o llar values by the C o n su m er P ric e Index o r the ap p ro p ria te c o m p o n e n t o f the index, then m u lti p ly in g by 100. F o r exam ple, given a cu rren t h o u rly w age rate o f $3 and a cu rren t price 54 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis index num ber o f 150, w here 1982 = 100, the hourly rate ex p ressed in 1982 dollars is $2 ($3/150 x 100 = $2). T he $2 (or any other re s u ltin g v alu es) are d e sc rib e d as “ re a l,” “ co n sta n t,” o r “ 1982” dollars. tional co m p ariso n s d ata, see International Comparisons o f Unemployment, BLS B u lle tin 1979. D etailed data on the o ccu p atio n al injury and illness series are p u b lish ed in Occupa Sources of information tional Injuries and Illnesses in the United States, by Industry, a BLS ann u al bulletin. Finally, the Monthly Labor Review car D ata th at sup p lem en t the tables in this sec tion are pu b lish ed by the B ureau in a variety o f sources. D efinitions o f e ach series and notes on th e data are c o n tain ed in later sec tions o f these N otes describ in g each set o f data. F o r d etailed descrip tio n s o f each data series, see b l s Handbook o f Methods, B u l letin 2490. U sers also m ay w ish to consult Major Programs o f the Bureau o f Labor Sta tistics, R e p o rt 919. N ew s releases provide the latest statistical inform ation p ublished by th e B ureau; the m ajo r recu rrin g releases are pu b lish ed according to the schedule ap p earin g on the b ack co v er o f this issue. M ore inform ation about labor force, em p loym ent, and u n em p lo y m en t d ata and the household and establishm ent surveys u nder lying the d a ta are available in th e B u re a u ’s m o n th ly p u b lic a tio n , Employment and Earnings. H istorical u nadjusted and season ally adju sted d a ta from the h o u seh o ld sur vey are available on the Internet: http ://www.bls.gov/cps/ H istorically com parable unadjusted and sea sonally adjusted data from the establishm ent survey also are availab le on the Internet: http ://www.bls.gov/ces/ A dd itio n al inform ation on lab o r force data fo r areas b elo w the natio n al level are p ro vid ed in the BLS annual rep o rt, Geographic Profile o f Employment and Unemployment. F o r a co m p reh en siv e d iscu ssio n o f the E m p lo y m en t C o st Index, see Employment Cost Indexes and Levels, 1975-95, BLS B u l letin 2466. T h e m o st re c e n t d a ta from the E m ploy ee B enefits S urvey ap p ear in the fo l low ing B ureau o f L ab o r Statistics bulletins: Employee Benefits in Medium and Large Firms; Employee Benefits in Small Private Establishments; and Employee Benefits in State and Local Governments. M ore detailed data on consum er and p ro d u cer p rices are pu b lish ed in the m onthly p e rio d ic a ls, The C P I Detailed Report and Producer Price Indexes. F o r an o verview o f the 1998 rev isio n o f the CPI, see the D ecem b er 1996 issue o f th e Monthly Labor Re view. A dditional data on international prices a p p ear in m onthly new s releases. L istin g s o f industries for w h ich p ro d u c tivity indexes are available m ay b e found on the Internet: http dfo/ ww.bls.gov/Ipc/ F o r ad d itio n al in fo rm atio n on in te rn a O ctober 2003 ries analytical articles on an n u al and lo n g er term dev elo p m en ts in lab o r force, em p lo y m ent, and u n em ploym ent; e m p lo y ee c o m pen satio n and c o llectiv e barg ain in g ; prices; p ro d u c tiv ity ; in te rn a tio n a l c o m p a riso n s ; and injury and illn ess data. Symbols n.e.c. = n.e.s. = p = r not elsew h ere classified, n o t e lsew h ere specified. prelim inary. To in crease th e tim e liness o f som e series, p relim in ary fig u res are issu ed based on re p re sentative b u t in co m p lete returns, = rev ised . G en erally , th is re v isio n re fle c ts th e a v a ila b ility o f la te r data, b u t also m ay reflect o ther ad ju s tm e n ts. Comparative Indicators (T ables 1 -3 ) C o m p a ra tiv e in d ic a to rs ta b le s p ro v id e an ov erv iew and co m p ariso n o f m ajo r bls sta tistical series. C onsequently, although m any o f the included series are availab le m onthly, all m easu res in these co m p arativ e tab les are p resen ted q u arterly and annually. Labor market indicators in clu d e e m p lo y m en t m easu res from tw o m ajo r surveys and in fo rm atio n on rates o f chan g e in co m p e n s a tio n p ro v id e d b y th e E m p lo y m e n t C o st Index (ECi) p ro g ram . T h e lab o r force p a rtic ip a tio n ra te , th e e m p lo y m e n t-p o p u lation ratio, and unem ploym ent rates fo r m a jo r dem o g rap h ic gro u p s based on the C u r re n t P o p u latio n (“ h o u se h o ld ”) S urvey are p resented, w hile m easures o f em p lo y m en t and av erage w eekly h o u rs by m a jo r in d u s try sector are giv en u sing no n farm payroll d ata. T he E m p lo y m e n t C o st In d e x (co m p en satio n ), by m ajo r secto r and by b arg a in ing status, is ch o sen from a v ariety o f bls com pensation and w age m easures b ecause it p rovides a co m p reh en siv e m easu re o f e m p lo y er costs fo r h irin g labor, n o t ju s t o u t lays fo r w ages, and it is n o t affected by em p lo y m e n t shifts am ong o ccu p atio n s and in d u stries. D a ta o n changes in com pensation, prices, and productivity are p resen ted in tab le 2. M easu res o f rates o f ch an g e o f co m p en satio n and w ages fro m the E m p lo y m en t C o st In d ex p ro g ram are p ro v id ed fo r all c i v ilia n no n farm w orkers (ex clu d in g F ederal and h o u seh o ld w orkers) and fo r all p riv ate n o n farm w o rk ers. M easu res o f ch an g es in c o n su m e r p ric e s fo r all u rb a n co n su m ers; p ro d u c e r p rices by stage o f processing; o ver all prices by stage o f p ro cessin g ; and overall ex p o rt and im p o rt p rice indexes are given. M easu res o f p ro d u ctiv ity (o u tp u t p e r h our o f all p erso n s) are p ro v id ed fo r m ajo r sec to rs. A lternative m easures o f wage and compensation rates of change, w hich re flect the overall trend in labor costs, are sum m arized in tab le 3. D ifferen ces in concepts and scope, re la te d to th e specific purposes o f th e series, co n trib u te to the v ariation in changes am ong the individual m easures. Notes on the d ata D efin itio n s o f e ach series and notes on the d a ta are c o n tain ed in la te r sections o f these n otes d escrib in g e a c h set o f data. Employment and Unemployment Data (T ables 1; 4 -2 4 ) Household survey data Description of the series E mployment data in this section are o b tain ed from the C u rre n t P o p u latio n Survey, a pro g ram o f p erso n al interview s conducted m o n th ly by the B u reau o f the C ensus fo r the B ureau o f L ab o r S tatistics. T he sam ple consists o f about 60,000 households selected to re p re se n t the U .S. p o p u latio n 16 y ears o f age and older. H ouseholds are interview ed on a ro tatin g b asis, so th at th ree-fo u rth s o f the sam p le is the sam e for any 2 co nsecutive m o n th s. Definitions d id not w ork d uring the survey w eek, but w ere available fo r w ork ex cep t fo r tem p o rary illness and had looked fo r jo b s w ithin the p receding 4 w eeks. P ersons w ho did not look fo r w ork b ecause they w ere on la y o ff are also c o u n te d a m o n g th e un em p lo y ed . The unemployment rate re p re s e n ts th e nu m b er u n em ployed as a p erc e n t o f the c i vilian lab o r force. T he civilian labor force consists o f all e m p lo y e d o r u n e m p lo y e d p e rso n s in th e civilian noninstitutional population. Persons not in the labor force a re th o s e n o t classified as em ployed o r unem ployed. T his group includes discouraged w orkers, defined as persons w ho w an t and are available fo r a jo b and w ho have looked fo r w ork som etim e in the p ast 12 m onths (or since the end o f th eir last jo b if they h eld one w ithin the p ast 12 m onths), but are not currently looking, b e c a u s e th e y b e lie v e th e re a re n o jo b s available o r there are none fo r w hich they w o u ld q u a lify . T h e civilian noninstitu tional population com prises all persons 16 years o f age and o ld e r w ho are n o t inm ates o f p en al o r m ental institutions, sanitarium s, o r hom es fo r the aged, infirm , o r needy. T he civilian labor force participation rate is th e p r o p o r tio n o f th e c i v i l i a n n o n i n stitu tio n a l p o p u la tio n th a t is in the lab o r force. T he employment-population ratio is em p lo y m en t as a p erc e n t o f the civilian n o n in stitu tio n al p opulation. Notes on the data From tim e to tim e, and especially after a de cennial census, adjustm ents are m ade in the C urrent Population Survey figures to correct for estim ating errors during the intercensal years. These adjustm ents affect the com para bility o f historical data. A description o f these adjustm ents and their effect on the various data series appears in the E xplanatory N otes o f Employment and Earnings. F or a discussion o f changes introduced in January 2003, see “R evisions to the C urrent Population Survey Effective in January 2003” in the February 2003 issu e o f Employment and Earnings (av ailab le on th e bls W eb site at: http:// Employed persons in c lu d e (1) all th o s e www.bls.gov/cps/rvcps03.pdf). w h o w o rk e d fo r p a y an y tim e d u rin g th e w e e k w h ic h in c lu d e s th e 12th d ay o f th e m o n th o r w h o w o rk e d u n p a id fo r 15 h o u rs o r m o re in a fa m ily -o p e ra te d e n te rp ris e a n d (2) th o s e w h o w e re te m p o ra rily a b s e n t fro m th e ir re g u la r jo b s b e c a u se o f ill n e ss, v a c a tio n , in d u s tria l d is p u te , o r s im i la r re a so n s. A p e rso n w o rk in g a t m o re th an o n e jo b is c o u n te d o n ly in th e jo b a t w h ic h h e o r sh e w o rk e d th e g re a te s t n u m b e r o f h o u rs . Unemployed persons a re th o s e w h o E ffective in January 2 003, BLS began u s ing the X -1 2 arima se aso n al a d ju stm e n t p rogram to seasonally adjust natio n al labor fo rce data. T his p rogram rep laced th e X -l 1 arima p rogram w h ich had b een used since Jan u ary 1980. See “R ev isio n o f S easonally A djusted L abor F orce Series in 2003,” in the F e b ru a ry 2003 issue o f Employment and Earnings (available on the bls W eb site at http:www.bls.gov/cps/cpsrs.pdf) fo r a dis cu ssio n o f the introduction o f the use o f X - https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 12 arima for seasonal adjustment o f the la bor force data and the effects that it had on the data. A t the b eginning o f e ach cale n d a r year, h isto rical seasonally a d ju sted d a ta usually are rev ised , and p ro jected seasonal ad ju st m e n t factors are calc u la te d fo r use during the Ja n u a ry -Ju n e period. T he h isto rical sea sonally adju sted d a ta usu ally are rev ised fo r only the m o st re c e n t 5 years. In July, new seasonal ad ju stm en t factors, w h ich in co rp o rate the ex p erien ce th ro u g h Ju n e, are p ro d u ced for the Ju ly -D e c e m b e r p eriod, b u t no rev isio n s are m ade in the h isto ric a l data. F or additional information on n a tio n a l h o u se h o ld su rv ey d a ta , c o n ta c t the D iv isio n o f L a b o r F o rc e S tatistics: (202) 6 9 1 -6 3 7 8 . Establishment survey data Description of the series E mployment, hours , and earnings data in this sectio n are co m p ile d fro m p a y ro ll reco rd s rep o rted m onthly on a vo lu n tary b a sis to the B u reau o f L a b o r S tatistics and its cooperating S tate agencies by about 160,000 businesses and g o v ern m en t agencies, w hich rep resen t a p proxim ately 4 00,000 individual w orksites and rep resen t all industries ex cep t agriculture. T he active C E S sam ple covers approxim ately o ne-third o f all n onfarm p a y roll w orkers. In d u stries are c lassified in ac co rdance w ith the 2002 N o rth A m erican In d u stry C la ssific a tio n S y stem . In m o st in dustries, the sam pling probabilities are based on the size o f the estab lish m en t; m o st large estab lish m en ts are th erefo re in the sam ple. (A n e stab lish m en t is n o t n ecessarily a firm ; it m ay be a b ran ch p lant, fo r ex am p le, o r w a re h o u se .) S e lf-e m p lo y e d p e rso n s an d others n o t o n a re g u la r civ ilia n p a y ro ll are outside th e scope o f the survey becau se they are ex clu d e d from e sta b lish m e n t re c o rd s. T h is la rg e ly a c c o u n ts fo r th e d ifferen ce in em ploym ent figures betw een the household and establishm ent surveys. Definitions A n establishment is an econom ic unit w hich produces goods o r services (such as a factory o r store) at a single location and is engaged in one type o f econom ic activity. Employed persons are all persons w ho received pay (including holiday and sick pay) for any part o f the payroll period including the 12th day o f the m onth. Persons holding m ore than one jo b (about 5 percent o f all persons in the labor force) are counted in each establish m ent w hich reports them . Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 55 Current Labor Statistics P ro d u c tio n w o rk e rs in the goods-producing industries cover em ployees, up through the level o f w orking supervisors, w ho engage directly in the m anufacture o r construction o f the establishm ent’s product. In private ser vice-providing industries, data are collected for nonsupervisory w orkers, w hich include m ost em ployees except those in executive, m anage rial, and supervisory positions. T hose w ork ers m entioned in tables 11-16 include produc tion w orkers in m anufacturing and natural re sources and m ining; construction w orkers in construction; and nonsupervisory w orkers in all private service-providing industries. P ro duction and nonsupervisory w orkers account for about four-fifths o f the total em ploym ent on private nonagricultural payrolls. E a rn in g s are the paym ents production or nonsupervisory w orkers receive during the survey perio d , inclu d in g p rem iu m pay for o v ertim e o r late-sh ift w ork b u t exclu d in g i r r e g u l a r b o n u s e s a n d o th e r s p e c i a l p a y m e n ts . R e a l e a r n i n g s a re e a rn in g s a d ju sted to re fle c t the effects o f ch an g es in c o n su m er p rices. T h e d eflato r fo r this series is d eriv ed fro m th e C o n su m er P rice Index for U rban W age E arners and C lerical W orkers (CPI-W). H o u rs represent the average w eekly hours o f production or nonsupervisory w orkers for w hich pay w as received, and are different from standard or scheduled hours. O v e rtim e h o u rs represent the portion o f average w eekly hours w hich was in excess o f regular hours and for w hich overtim e prem ium s w ere paid. T he D iffu sio n In d e x represents the per cent o f industries in w hich em ploym ent w as rising over the indicated period, plus one-half o f the industries w ith unchanged em ploym ent; 50 percent indicates an equal balance betw een industries w ith increasing and decreasing em ploym ent. In line w ith B ureau practice, data for the 1-, 3-, and 6-m onth spans are season ally adjusted, w hile those for the 12-m onth span are unadjusted. Table 17 provides an in dex on private nonfarm em ploym ent based on 278 industries, and a m anufacturing index based on 84 industries. T hese indexes are use ful for m easuring the dispersion o f econom ic gains or losses and are also econom ic indica tors. Notes on the data E stablishm ent survey data are annually ad justed to com prehensive counts o f em ploy m ent (called “benchm arks”). T he M arch 2002 benchm ark w as introduced in June 2003 w ith the release o f data for M ay 2003, published in the July 2003 issue o f the Review. W ith the release in June, ces com pleted a conversion from the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system to the N orth A m erican Industry C las sification System (naics) and com pleted the transition from its original quota sam ple de 56 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis sign to a probability-based sam ple design. The industry-coding update included reconstruc tion o f historical estim ates in order to preserve tim e series for data users. N orm ally 5 years o f seasonally adjusted data are revised w ith each benchm ark revision. H ow ever, w ith this re lease, the entire new tim e series history for all ces data series were re-seasonally adjusted due to the NAICS conversion, w hich resulted in the revision o f all ces tim e series. A lso in June 2003, the CES program intro duced concurrent seasonal adjustm ent for the national establishm ent data. U nder this m eth odology, the first prelim inary estim ates for the current reference m onth and the revised esti m ates for the 2 prior m onths w ill be updated w ith concurrent factors w ith each new release o f data. C oncurrent seasonal adjustm ent in corporates all available data, including first pre lim inary estim ates for the m ost current m onth, in the adjustm ent process. F or additional in form ation on all o f the changes introduced in June 2003, see the the June 2003 issue o f Em ployment and Earnings and “R ecent changes in the national C urrent E m ploym ent Statistics survey,” Monthly Labor Review, June 2003, pp. 3 -1 3 . R evisions in State data (table 11) occurred w ith the publication o f January 2003 data. For inform ation on the revisions for the State data, see the M arch and M ay 2003 issues o f Em ployment and Earnings, and “R ecent changes in the State and M etropolitan A rea CES sur vey,” Monthly Labor Review, June 2003, pp. 14-19. Beginning in June 1996, the bls uses the X-12-arima m ethodology to seasonally ad ju st establishm ent survey data. T his proce dure, developed by the B ureau o f the Census, controls for the effect o f varying survey inter vals (also know n as the 4- versus 5-w eek ef fect), thereby providing im proved m easure m ent o f over-the-m onth changes and underly ing econom ic trends. Revisions o f data, usually for the m ost recent 5 -year period, are m ade once a year coincident w ith the benchm ark re visions. In the establishm ent survey, estim ates for the m ost recent 2 m onths are based on incom plete returns and are published as prelim inary in the tables (1 2 -1 7 in the Review). W hen all returns have been received, the estim ates are revised and published as “final” (prior to any benchm ark revisions) in the third m onth o f their appearance. T hus, D ecem ber data are published as prelim inary in January and F eb ruary and as final in M arch. F or the sam e rea sons, quarterly establishm ent data (table 1) are prelim inary for the first 2 m onths o f publica tion and final in the third m onth. T hus, fourthquarter data are published as prelim inary in January and February and as final in M arch. F or additional information o n e s tablishm ent survey data, contact the Division o f O ctober 2003 Current Employment Statistics: (202) 691-6555. Unemployment data by State Description of the series Data presented in this section are obtained from the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS) program, which is conducted in cooperation with State employment security agencies. M onthly estim ates o f the labor force, em ploym ent, and unem ploym ent for States and sub-State areas are a key indicator o f local eco nom ic conditions, and form the basis for deter m ining the eligibility o f an area for benefits under Federal econom ic assistance program s such as the Job Training Partnership Act. Sea sonally adjusted unem ploym ent rates are pre sented in table 10. Insofar as possible, the con cepts and definitions underlying these data are those used in the national estim ates obtained from the CPS. Notes on the data D ata refer to State o f residence. M onthly data for all States and the D istrict o f C olum bia are d e riv e d u s in g s ta n d a r d iz e d p ro c e d u r e s established by bls. O nce a year, estim ates are revised to new population controls, usually w ith publication o f January estim ates, and benchm arked to annual average CPS levels. For additional information on data in this series, call (202) 691 -6 3 9 2 (table 10) or (202) 691 -6 5 5 9 (table 11). Covered em ploym ent and wage data (ES-202) Description of the series E m p l o y m e n t , w a g e , a n d e s t a b l is h m e n t d a t a in th is s e c tio n a re d e riv e d fro m th e q u a r te r ly ta x r e p o r ts s u b m itte d to S ta te e m p lo y m e n t s e c u r ity a g e n c ie s b y p r i v a te a n d S ta te a n d lo c a l g o v e rn m e n t e m p lo y e r s s u b je c t to S ta te u n e m p lo y m e n t in s u ra n c e (u i) la w s a n d fro m F e d e r a l, a g e n c ie s s u b je c t to th e U n e m p lo y m e n t C o m p e n s a tio n f o r F e d e r a l E m p lo y e e s ( u c f e ) p ro g ra m . E a c h q u a rte r, S ta te a g e n cies edit and process the data and send the inform ation to the B ureau o f L abor Statistics. T h e C o v e re d E m p lo y m e n t a n d W ag es d a ta , a lso re fe rre d as E S -2 0 2 d a ta , are th e m o s t c o m p le te e n u m e ra tio n o f e m p lo y m e n t a n d w a g e in fo rm a tio n by in d u s try at th e n a tio n a l, S ta te , m e tro p o lita n a re a , an d c o u n ty le v e ls. T h e y h a v e b ro a d e c o n o m ic s ig n ific a n c e in e v a lu a tin g la b o r m a rk e t tre n d s an d m a jo r in d u s try d e v e lo p m e n ts . Definitions In g en eral, e s -202 m o n th ly e m p lo y m en t d ata rep re se n t th e n u m b er o f covered workers w ho w o rk ed d u ring, o r receiv ed pay for, the pay p e rio d th a t in cluded the 12th day o f the m onth. Covered private industry employ ment includes m o st co rp o rate o fficia ls, e x ecutives, supervisory personnel, p ro fessio n als, c le ric a l w o rk ers, w age e arn ers, p iece w o rk ers, and p art-tim e w orkers. It excludes p ro p rie to rs , th e u n in c o rp o ra te d s e lf-e m p lo y ed , u n p aid fam ily m em bers, and certain farm and d o m estic w orkers. C ertain types o f n o n p ro fit em p lo y ers, su ch as relig io u s organizations, are given a choice o f coverage o r ex clu sio n in a nu m b e r o f States. W orkers in these organizations are, therefore, reported to a lim ited degree. Persons on paid sick leave, paid holiday, paid vacation, and the like, are included. P er sons on the payroll o f m ore than one firm dur ing the period are counted by each ui-subject em ployer if they m eet the em ploym ent defini tion noted earlier. T he em ploym ent count ex cludes w orkers w ho earned no w ages during the entire applicable pay period because o f w ork stoppages, tem porary layoffs, illness, o r unpaid vacations. Federal employment data are based on rep o rts o f m o n th ly e m p lo y m en t and q u a r terly w ages su b m itted e ach q u arter to S tate ag en cies fo r all F ed eral in stallatio n s w ith e m p lo y ees co v ered by the U n e m p lo y m e n t C om pensation fo r F ederal E m ployees ( u c f e ) p ro g ram , ex c e p t fo r c ertain natio n al secu rity agencies, w hich are o m itted fo r security reasons. E m p lo y m e n t fo r all F ed eral ag en cies fo r any g iv en m o n th is b a se d on the n u m b er o f perso n s w ho w o rk ed d uring or received pay fo r the pay perio d that included the 12th o f the m onth. A n establishment is an econom ic unit, such as a farm , m ine, factory, o r store, that produces goods or provides services. It is typi cally at a single physical location and engaged in one, o r predom inantly one, type o f eco nom ic activity for w hich a single industrial clas sification m ay be applied. Occasionally, a single physical location encom passes tw o o r m ore distinct and significant activities. Each activity should be reported as a separate establishm ent if separate records are kept and the various activities are classified under different four digit sic codes. M ost em ployers have only one establish m ent; thus, the establishm ent is the predom i nant reporting unit or statistical entity for re porting em ploym ent and w ages data. M ost em ployers, including State and local govern m ents w ho operate m ore than one establish https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis m ent in a State, file a M ultiple W orksite R e port each quarter, in addition to their quarterly ui report. T he M ultiple W orksite R ep o rt is used to collect separate em ploym ent and w age data for each o f the em ployer’s establishments, w hich are not detailed on the ui report. Som e very sm all m ulti-establishm ent em ployers do not file a M ultiple W orksite R eport. W hen the total em ploym ent in an em ployer’s secondary establishm ents (all establishm ents other than the largest) is 10 or few er, the em ployer gener ally w ill file a consolidated report for all estab lishm ents. A lso, som e em ployers either can not o r w ill not report at the establishm ent level and thus aggregate establishments into one con solidated unit, or possibly several units, though not at the establishm ent level. F o r the F ed eral G overnm ent, the re p o rt ing un it is the installation: a single location at w hich a departm ent, agency, o r o th e r g o v e rn m en t body has civ ilian em ployees. F ed eral agencies follow slightly d ifferen t crite ria than do private em ployers w hen b reak ing dow n th eir reports by installation. T hey are p erm itted to co m b in e as a single state w ide unit: 1) all installations w ith 10 o r few er w orkers, and 2) all installations th at h av e a com b in ed total in the S tate o f few er than 50 workers. Also, w hen there are few er than 25 w orkers in all secondary installations in a State, the secondary installations m ay be com bined and reported w ith the m ajor installation. Last, if a Federal agency has few er than five em ployees in a State, the agency headquarters office (regional office, district office) serving each State m ay consolidate the em ploym ent and w ages data fo r that State w ith the data reported to the State in w hich the headquarters is located. As a result o f these reporting rules, the num ber o f reporting units is alw ays larger than the num ber o f em ployers (or governm ent agencies) but sm aller than the num ber o f actual establishm ents (or installations). D ata reported for the first quarter are tabu lated into size categories ranging from worksites o f very sm all size to those w ith 1,000 em ploy ees o r m ore. T he size category is determ ined by the e stab lish m en t’s M arch em ploym ent level. It is im portant to note that each estab lishm ent o f a m ulti-establishm ent firm is tabu lated separately into the appropriate size cat egory. The total em ploym ent level o f the re porting m ulti-establishm ent firm is not used in the size tabulation. C overed em ployers in m ost States report total wages paid during the calendar quarter, re gardless o f when the services were performed. A few State laws, however, specify that wages be reported for, or based on the period during which services are performed rather than the period dur ing which compensation is paid. Under m ost State laws or regulations, wages include bonuses, stock options, the cash value o f meals and lodging, tips and other gratuities, and, in som e States, em ployer contributions to certain deferred com pensation plans such as 401 (k) plans. C overed em ployer contributions for oldage, survivors, and disability insurance ( o a sd i ), health insurance, unem ploym ent insurance, w orkers’ com pensation, and private pension and w elfare funds are not reported as wages. Em ployee contributions for the sam e purposes, how ever, as w ell as m oney w ithheld for in com e taxes, union dues, and so forth, are re ported even though they are deducted from the w o rk er’s gross pay. Wages of covered Federal workers rep resent the gross am ount o f all payrolls for all pay periods ending w ithin the quarter. This includes cash allow ances, the cash equivalent o f any type o f rem uneration, severance pay, w ithholding taxes, and retirem ent deductions. Federal em ployee rem uneration generally cov ers the sam e types o f services as for w orkers in private industry. Average annual wages p er em ployee for any given industry are com puted by dividing total annual w ages by annual average em ploy m ent. A further division by 52 yields average w eekly w ages per em ployee. A nnual pay data only approxim ate annual earnings because an individual m ay not be em ployed by the sam e em ployer all year o r m ay w ork for m ore than one em ployer at a tim e. Average weekly or annual pay is affected by the ratio o f full-tim e to part-tim e w orkers as w ell as the num ber o f individuals in highpaying and low -paying occupations. W hen average pay levels betw een States and indus tries are com pared, these factors should be taken into consideration. F or exam ple, indus tries characterized by high proportions o f parttim e w orkers will show average w age levels appreciably less than the w eekly pay levels o f regular full-tim e em ployees in these industries. T he opposite effect characterizes industries w ith low proportions o f part-tim e w orkers, or industries that typically schedule heavy w eek end and overtim e work. Average w age data also m ay be influenced by w ork stoppages, labor turnover rates, retroactive paym ents, seasonal factors, bonus paym ents, and so on. Notes on the data Beginning with the release o f data for 2001, pub lications presenting data from the Covered Em ployment and Wages (CEW)program have switched to the 2002 version o f the North American Indus try C lassificatiion S ystem (NAICS) as the basis for the assignm ent and tabulation o f econom ic data by industry, naics is the product o f a cooperative effort on the part o f the statistical agencies o f the U nited States, C anada, and M exico. D ue to difference in naics and Stan- Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 57 Current Labor Statistics dard Industrial C lassification (SIC) structures, industry data for 2001 is not com parable to the sic-based data fo r earlier years. Effective January 2001, the CEWprogram began assigning Indian T ribal Councils and re lated establishm ents to local governm ent ow n ership. T his bls action w as in response to a change in Federal law dealing w ith the way Indian T ribes are treated under the Federal U n em ploym ent Tax A ct. T his law requires federally recognized Indian Tribes to be treated sim ilarly to State and local governm ents. In the past the cew program coded Indian Tribal C ouncils and re la te d estab lish m en ts in the priv ate sector. A s a re su lt o f the new law, cew d a ta reflects sig n ifican t shifts in em ploym ent and w ages betw een the private sec to r and local g o v ernm ent from 2 000 to 2001. D ata also reflect industry changes. T hose acco u n ts p rev io u sly assig n ed to civic and social organizations w ere assigned to tribal governm ents. T here w ere no required indus try changes for related establishm ents ow ned by these T ribal Councils. T hese tribal busi ness establishm ents continued to be coded ac cording to the econom ic activity o f that entity. To insure the highest possible quality o f data, S tate em p lo y m e n t secu rity ag encies verify w ith em ployers and update, if neces sary, the industry, location, and ownership clas sification o f all establishments on a 3-year cycle. C hanges in establishm ent classification codes resulting from the verification process are in troduced w ith the data reported for the first quarter o f the year. C hanges resulting from im proved em ployer reporting also are intro duced in the first quarter. F o r these reasons, som e data, especially at m ore detailed geo graphic levels, m ay not be strictly com parable w ith earlier years. T he2000 county data used to calculate the 2000-2001 changes w ere adjusted for changes in industry and county classification to m ake them com parable to data for 2001. A s a result, the adjusted 2000 data differ to som e extent from the data available on the Internet at: http ://www.bls.gov/cew/home.htm. C ounty definitions are assigned according to Federal Inform ation Processing Standards Publications as issued by the N ational Insti tu te o f S ta n d a rd s and T ech n o lo g y . A reas show n as co u n ties include th o se desig n ated as in d ep en d e n t c ities in som e ju risd ictio n s and, in A laska, those areas designated by the C ensus B ureau w here counties have not been created. C ou n ty data also are p resen ted fo r the N ew E ngland States fo r com parative pu r p o ses, ev en th o u g h to w nships are the m ore co m m o n d e sig n atio n u sed in N ew E ngland 58 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis (and N ew Jersey). F o r a d d itio n a l in fo rm a tio n on th e c o v e re d e m p lo y m e n t a n d w a g e d a ta , c o n ta c t th e D iv is io n o f A d m in istra tiv e S ta tis tic s an d L a b o r T u rn o v e r a t (2 0 2 ) 6 9 1 -6 5 6 7 . Compensation and Wage Data (T ab le s 1 -3 ; 2 5 -3 1 ) C ompensation and wage data are g a th e re d by th e B u re a u fro m b u sin e ss e s ta b lish m e n ts, S ta te a n d lo c a l g o v e rn m e n ts, la b o r u n io n s , c o lle c tiv e b a rg a in in g a g re e m e n ts on file w ith th e B u re a u , a n d se c o n d a ry so u rc e s. Employment Cost Index Description of the series T h e Employment Cost Index (ECl) is a qu arterly m easu re o f the rate o f change in co m pensation per h o u r w orked and includes w ages, salaries, and em p lo y er costs o f em p lo y e e b e n e fits . It u se s a fix e d m a rk e t b ask et o f labor— sim ilar in co n cep t to the C onsum er P rice In d e x ’s fixed m arket b asket o f goods and services— to m easure change o v er tim e in em p lo y er costs o f em ploying labor. S ta tis tic a l series on to ta l c o m p e n sa tio n c o sts, o n w a g e s an d sa la rie s, an d o n b e n e fit co sts are a v a ila b le fo r p riv a te n o n fa rm w o rk e rs e x c lu d in g p ro p rie to rs , th e se lfe m p lo y e d , a n d h o u s e h o ld w o rk e rs . T h e to ta l c o m p e n s a tio n c o sts an d w ag es and sa la rie s se rie s are a lso a v a ila b le fo r S ta te an d lo c a l g o v e rn m e n t w o rk e rs a n d fo r th e c iv ilia n n o n fa rm eco n o m y , w h ic h c o n sists o f p riv a te in d u s try a n d S ta te a n d lo c a l g o v e rn m e n t w o rk e rs c o m b in e d . F e d e ra l w o rk e rs are e x c lu d e d . T h e E m p lo y m e n t C o st In d e x p ro b a b il ity s a m p le c o n s is ts o f a b o u t 4 ,4 0 0 p r i v a te n o n fa rm e s ta b lis h m e n ts p ro v id in g a b o u t 2 3 ,0 0 0 o c c u p a tio n a l o b se rv a tio n s an d 1,000 S ta te a n d lo c a l g o v e rn m e n t e s ta b lish m e n ts p ro v id in g 6 ,0 0 0 o c c u p a tio n a l o b s e rv a tio n s s e le c te d to re p r e s e n t to ta l e m p lo y m e n t in e a c h secto r. O n a v e ra g e , e a c h r e p o r tin g u n it p ro v id e s w a g e a n d c o m p e n s a tio n in fo rm a tio n on fiv e w e llsp e c ifie d o c c u p a tio n s. D a ta are c o lle c te d e a c h q u a rte r fo r th e pay p e rio d in c lu d in g th e 12th d ay o f M a rc h , Ju n e , S e p te m b e r, an d D ecem ber. B e g in n in g w ith Ju n e 1986 d a ta , fix e d O ctober 2003 e m p lo y m e n t w e ig h ts fro m th e 1980 C e n su s o f P o p u la tio n are u se d e a c h q u a rte r to c a lc u la te th e c iv ilia n a n d p riv a te in d e x e s a n d th e in d e x fo r S ta te a n d lo c a l g o v e rn m e n ts. (P rio r to J u n e 1986, th e e m p lo y m e n t w e ig h ts are fro m th e 1970 C e n su s o f P o p u la tio n .) T h e s e fix e d w e ig h ts , a ls o u se d to d e riv e a ll o f th e in d u s try a n d o c c u p a ti o n s e r ie s i n d e x e s , e n s u r e t h a t c h a n g e s in th e s e in d e x e s r e f l e c t o n ly c h a n g e s in c o m p e n sa tio n , n o t e m p lo y m e n t s h ifts a m o n g in d u s trie s o r o c c u p a tio n s w ith d iffe re n t le v e ls o f w a g e s a n d c o m p e n sa tio n . F o r th e b a rg a in in g sta tu s, r e g io n , a n d m e tro p o lita n /n o n m e tro p o lita n a re a se rie s, h o w e v e r, e m p lo y m e n t d a ta by in d u s try a n d o c c u p a tio n a re n o t a v a ila b le fro m th e c e n s u s . In s te a d , th e 1980 e m p lo y m e n t w e ig h ts a re re a llo c a te d w ith in th e s e se rie s e a c h q u a rte r b a s e d o n th e c u r re n t sa m p le . T h e re fo re , th e s e in d e x e s are n o t s tric tly c o m p a ra b le to th o s e fo r th e a g g re g a te , in d u stry , an d o c c u p a tio n series. Definitions Total com pensation c o sts in c lu d e w a g e s, s a la rie s, an d th e e m p lo y e r’s c o sts fo r e m p lo y e e b e n e fits. Wages and salaries c o n s is t o f e a rn in g s b e fo re p a y ro ll d e d u c tio n s , in c lu d in g p ro d u c tio n b o n u s e s , in c e n tiv e e a rn in g s , c o m m is s io n s , a n d c o s t-o f- liv in g a d ju s t m e n ts. Benefits include the co st to em ployers fo r p a id leave, su p p lem en tal p ay (in c lu d ing n o n p ro d u ctio n b o n u ses), in surance, re tirem en t and savings p lan s, and legally re q u ire d b e n e fits (su c h as S o c ia l S ecu rity , w o rk e rs’ com pensation, and un em p lo y m en t insurance). E x c lu d e d fro m w a g e s a n d sa la rie s and e m p lo y e e b e n e fits a re su c h ite m s as p a y m e n t-in -k in d , fre e ro o m a n d b o a rd , a n d tip s . Notes on the d a ta T h e E m p lo y m e n t C o s t In d e x fo r c h a n g e s in w a g e s a n d sa la rie s in th e p riv a te n o n farm e c o n o m y w as p u b lish e d b e g in n in g in 1 9 7 5 . C h a n g e s in t o t a l c o m p e n s a ti o n c o s t— w a g e s a n d s a la r ie s a n d b e n e f its c o m b in e d — w e re p u b lis h e d b e g in n in g in 1980. T h e se rie s o f c h a n g e s in w a g e s an d sa la rie s an d fo r to ta l c o m p e n s a tio n in th e S ta te a n d lo c a l g o v e rn m e n t s e c to r a n d in th e c iv ilia n n o n fa rm e c o n o m y (e x c lu d in g F e d e r a l e m p lo y e e s ) w e re p u b lis h e d b e - g i n n i n g in 1 9 8 1 . H i s t o r i c a l i n d e x e s (J u n e 1981 = 1 0 0 ) a re a v a il a b le o n th e In te r n e t: http ://w ww.bls.gov/ect/ F or additional information on th e E m p lo y m e n t C o st In d e x , c o n ta c t th e O f fic e o f C o m p e n sa tio n L e v e ls a n d T re n d s: (2 0 2 ) 6 9 1 -6 1 9 9 . Employee Benefits Survey Description of the series Employee benefits data are o b tain ed from th e E m p lo y e e B en efits Survey, an annual survey o f the incidence and p ro v isio n s o f se le c te d b e n e fits p ro v id e d by em p lo y ers. T h e survey co llects d a ta from a sam ple o f a p p ro x im a te ly 9 ,0 0 0 p riv a te s e c to r an d S tate and local g o v ern m en t establishm ents. T he data are presented as a percentage o f em ployees w ho participate in a certain benefit, or as an average benefit provision (for exam ple, the average num ber o f paid holidays provided to em ployees per year). Selected data from the survey are presented in table 25 for m edium and large private establishm ents and in table 26 for sm all private establishm ents and State and local governm ent. T h e su rv ey c o v e rs p a id leav e b en efits such as holidays and vacations, and personal, fu n eral, ju ry duty, m ilitary, fam ily, and sick leave; sh o rt-term disability, lo n g -term d is ability, and life insuran ce; m edical, dental, and v isio n care plans; d efin ed ben efit and d efin e d co n trib u tio n p lans; flex ib le benefits plans; re im b u rse m e n t accounts; and unpaid fam ily leave. A ls o , d a ta a re ta b u la te d o n th e in c i d e n c e o f s e v e ra l o th e r b e n e fits , su c h as severance pay, child-care assistance, w ellness p r o g r a m s , a n d e m p lo y e e a s s is ta n c e program s. Definitions Employer-provided benefits are b enefits th a t are fin an ced e ith e r w holly o r partly by th e em ployer. T hey m ay be sp o n so red by a union o r o th e r th ird party, as long as there is som e em p lo y er financing. H ow ever, som e b en efits th a t are fully paid fo r by the e m plo y ee also are included. F o r exam ple, long term care in su ran ce and p o stretirem en t life in su ran ce p a id e n tirely by th e em p lo y ee are in cluded because the guarantee o f in su rab il ity and availab ility a t gro u p prem iu m rates are co n sid ered a benefit. Participants are w orkers who are covered by a benefit, whether or not they use that benefit I f th e b e n e fit p la n is fin a n c e d w h o lly by https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis employers and requires em ployees to com plete a m inim um length o f service for eligibility, the w orkers are considered participants w hether or not they have m et the requirem ent. If workers are required to contribute towards the cost o f a plan, they are considered participants only if they elect the plan and agree to make the required contributions. Defined benefit pension plans use pre determ ined form ulas to calculate a retirem ent benefit (if any), and obligate the em ployer to provide those benefits. Benefits are generally based on salary, years o f service, or both. Defined contribution plans g en erally specify the level o f em ployer and em ployee contributions to a plan, but not the form ula for determ ining eventual benefits. Instead, indi vidual accounts are set up for participants, and benefits are based on am ounts credited to these accounts. Tax-deferred savings plans are a type o f d e fin e d co n trib u tio n p lan th at allo w p a r ticipants to contribute a portion o f their sal ary to an em ployer-sponsored plan and defer incom e taxes until withdrawal. Flexible benefit plans allow em ployees to choose am ong several benefits, such as life insurance, medical care, and vacation days, and among several levels o f coverage within a given benefit. Notes on the data Surveys o f em ployees in m edium and large establishm ents conducted over the 1979-86 period included establishm ents that em ployed at least 5 0 ,1 0 0 , or 250 workers, depending on the industry (m ost service industries w ere ex clu d e d ). T h e survey c o n d u cte d in 1987 covered only State and local governm ents w ith 50 o r m ore em ployees. The surveys conducted in 1988 and 1989 included m edium and large establishm ents w ith 100 w orkers o r m ore in private industries. A ll surveys conducted over the 1979-89 period excluded establishm ents in A laska and H aw aii, as w ell as part-tim e em ployees. B eginning in 1990, surveys o f State and lo c a l g o v e r n m e n ts a n d s m a ll p r i v a te e s ta b lis h m e n ts w e re c o n d u c te d in ev en num bered years, and surveys o f m edium and large establishm ents w ere conducted in oddn u m b ered years. T he sm all e stab lish m en t s u r v e y i n c l u d e s a ll p r i v a t e n o n f a r m e s t a b l i s h m e n t s w ith f e w e r th a n 1 0 0 w o r k e r s , w h ile th e S ta t e a n d lo c a l governm ent survey includes all governm ents, re g a rd le ss o f the n u m b e r o f w o rk ers. A ll th re e su rv ey s in clu d e fu ll- an d p a rt-tim e w orkers, and w orkers in all 50 S tates and the D istrict o f C olum bia. For additional information on the E m ployee B enefits Survey, contact the O ffice o f C o m p en satio n L ev els an d T ren d s on the Internet: http ://www.bls.gov/ebs/ Work stoppages Description of the series D ata on w ork stoppages m easure the num ber and duration o f m ajor strikes o r lockouts (in volving 1,000 w orkers or m ore) occurring dur ing the m onth (or year), the num ber o f w ork ers involved, and the am ount o f w ork tim e lost because o f stoppage. T hese data are presented in table 31. D ata are largely fro m a variety o f p u b lished sources and co v er o nly establishm ents d ire c tly in v o lv ed in a sto p p ag e. T h e y do no t m easu re the in d irect o r secondary effect o f stoppages on o th e r estab lish m en ts w hose em ployees are idle ow in g to m aterial sh o rt ages o r lack o f service. Definitions Number of stoppages: T he num ber of strikes and lockouts involving 1,000 workers o r m ore and lasting a full shift or longer. Workers involved: T he num ber o f w ork ers directly involved in the stoppage. Number of days idle: T h e ag g reg ate num ber o f w orkdays lost by w orkers involved in the stoppages. Days o f idleness as a percent o f estim ated working time: A g g re g a te w orkdays lost as a percent o f the aggregate n u m b e r o f sta n d a rd w o rk d a y s in th e p e rio d m u l ti p li e d b y to t a l e m p lo y m e n t in th e p e rio d . Notes on the data T his series is not com parable w ith the one term inated in 1981 th at co v ered strikes in volving six w orkers o r m ore. For additional information o n w ork stoppages data, co n tac t the O ffice o f C o m p en satio n and W orking C o n d itio n s: (202) 6 9 1 -6 2 8 2 , o r the Internet: http :/www.bls.gov/cba/ Price Data (Tables 2; 3 2 -4 2 ) P rice data a re g a th e re d by th e B u re a u o f L a b o r S ta tis tic s fro m r e ta il a n d p r i m ary m arkets in the U nited States. Price in- Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 59 Current Labor Statistics dexes are given in relation to a base period— 1982 = 100 for m any P roducer Price Indexes, 19 8 2 -8 4 = 100 for m any C onsum er Price In dexes (unless otherw ise noted), and 1990 = 100 for International Price Indexes. Consumer Price Indexes Description of the series T h e Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a m e a su re o f th e a v e ra g e c h a n g e in th e p ric e s p a id b y u rb a n c o n su m e rs fo r a fix e d m a r k e t b a s k e t o f g o o d s a n d s e rv ic e s. T h e CPI is c a lc u la te d m o n th ly fo r tw o p o p u la tio n g r o u p s , o n e c o n s i s t i n g o n ly o f u rb a n h o u se h o ld s w h o se p rim a ry so u rc e o f in c o m e is d e riv e d fro m th e e m p lo y m e n t o f w ag e e a rn e rs a n d c le ric a l w o rk e rs, a n d the o th e r c o n s is tin g o f all u rb a n h o u se h o ld s. T h e w age e a rn e r in d ex (CPi-W) is a co n tin u a tio n o f th e h is to ric in d e x th a t w as in tro d u c e d w e ll o v e r a h a lf-c e n tu ry ago fo r u se in w a g e n e g o tia tio n s . A s n ew u se s w ere d e v e lo p e d fo r th e CPI in re c e n t y e a rs, the n e e d fo r a b ro a d e r an d m o re re p re s e n ta tiv e in d e x b e c a m e a p p a re n t. T h e a ll-u rb a n c o n su m e r index (CPi-U), intro d u ced in 1978, is re p re s e n ta tiv e o f th e 1 9 9 3 -9 5 b u y in g h a b its o f a b o u t 87 p e rc e n t o f th e n o n in stitu tio n a l p o p u la tio n o f th e U n ite d S ta te s a t th a t tim e , c o m p a re d w ith 32 p e rc e n t r e p r e s e n te d in th e CPi-w. In a d d itio n to w ag e e a rn e rs an d c le ric a l w o rk e rs, the CPIu covers pro fessio n al, m anagerial, and tech n ic a l w o rk e rs, th e se lf-e m p lo y e d , s h o rt te rm w o rk e rs , th e u n e m p lo y e d , re tire e s, a n d o th e rs n o t in th e la b o r fo rc e . T h e cpi is b a s e d o n p ric e s o f fo o d , c lo th in g , sh e lte r, fu e l, d ru g s , tra n s p o rta tio n fa re s, d o c to r s ’ an d d e n tis ts ’ fe e s, an d o th e r g o o d s a n d s e rv ic e s th a t p e o p le buy fo r d a y -to -d a y liv in g . T h e q u a n tity an d q u a lity o f th e s e ite m s are k e p t e ss e n tia lly u n c h a n g e d b e tw e e n m a jo r rev isio n s so th at o n ly p ric e c h a n g e s w ill be m e a s u re d . A ll ta x e s d ir e c tly a s s o c ia te d w ith th e p u r c h a se a n d u se o f ite m s are in c lu d e d in th e index. D a ta c o lle c te d fro m m o re th a n 2 3 ,0 0 0 r e ta il e s ta b lis h m e n ts a n d 5 ,8 0 0 h o u sin g u n its in 87 u rb a n a re a s a c ro ss th e c o u n try a re u se d to d e v e lo p th e “ U .S . c ity a v e r a g e .” S e p a ra te e stim a te s fo r 14 m a jo r u r b a n c e n te rs are p re s e n te d in ta b le 3 3 . T h e a re a s liste d are as in d ic a te d in fo o tn o te 1 to th e ta b le . T h e a re a in d ex es m e a su re only th e a v e ra g e c h a n g e in p ric e s fo r e a c h a re a sin c e th e b a se p e rio d , a n d do n o t in d ic a te d iffe re n c e s in th e le v e l o f p ric e s am o n g citie s. Notes on the d a ta 60 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis In Jan u ary 1983, the B u reau chan g ed the w ay in w h ic h h o m e o w n e rs h ip c o sts are m eau red fo r the CPi-u. A ren tal eq u ivalence m eth o d rep la c e d the asset-p rice ap p ro ach to hom eo w n ersh ip costs fo r th at series. In January 1985, the sam e c hange w as m ade in the C Pi-w . T he central purpose o f the change w as to separate sh elter costs from the in v estm en t c o m p o n en t o f hom e-o w n ersh ip so th at the index w o u ld re flect only the co st o f sh e lte r serv ices p ro v id ed by o w n e r-o c c u p ied hom es. A n u p dated cpi-U and cpi-w w ere intro d u ced w ith release o f the January 1987 and January 1998 data. F or additional information , c o n ta c t th e D iv is io n o f P ric e s an d P ric e In d ex es: (2 0 2 ) 6 9 1 -7 0 0 0 . to g e th e r w ith im p lic it q u a n tity w e ig h ts rep resen tin g th eir im portance in the total net selling valu e o f all com m odities as o f 1987. T h e d etailed d ata are aggreg ated to ob tain indexes fo r stag e-o f-p ro cessin g groupings, c o m m o d ity g r o u p i n g s , d u r a b i l i t y - o f p ro d u c t gro u p in g s, and a n u m b er o f sp ecial co m p o site groups. A ll P ro d u c e r P ric e Index d ata are su b ject to re v isio n 4 m o n th s after original publication. F or ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, c o n ta c t th e D iv is io n o f In d u s tria l P ric e s a n d P ric e In d e x e s: (2 0 2 ) 6 9 1 -7 7 0 5 . International Price indexes Description of the series Producer Price indexes Description of the series Producer Price Indexes (PPI) m e a su re a v e ra g e c h a n g e s in p ric e s re c e iv e d by d o m e s tic p ro d u c e rs o f c o m m o d itie s in a ll sta g e s o f p ro c e s sin g . T h e sa m p le u se d fo r c a lc u la tin g th e s e in d e x e s c u rre n tly c o n ta in s a b o u t 3 ,2 0 0 c o m m o d itie s an d a b o u t 8 0 ,0 0 0 q u o ta tio n s p e r m o n th , se le c te d to re p re s e n t th e m o v e m e n t o f p ric e s o f all c o m m o d itie s p ro d u c e d in th e m a n u fa c tu r ing; a g ric u ltu re , fo restry , an d fish in g ; m in ing; and gas and e lec tricity and p u b lic u tili ti e s s e c t o r s . T h e s t a g e - o f - p r o c e s s i n g s tru c tu r e o f ppi o rg a n iz e s p ro d u c ts by c la s s o f b u y e r an d d e g re e o f fa b ric a tio n ( th a t is , f i n is h e d g o o d s , in t e r m e d ia t e g o o d s, a n d c ru d e m a te ria ls ). T h e tr a d i tio n a l c o m m o d ity s tru c tu re o f ppi o rg a n iz e s p ro d u c ts by s im ila rity o f e n d u se o r m a te ria l c o m p o s itio n . T h e in d u s try an d p ro d u c t stru c tu re o f ppi o rg a n iz e s d a ta in a c c o rd a n c e w ith th e S ta n d a rd In d u s tria l C la s s ific a tio n (SIC) a n d th e p ro d u c t c o d e e x te n s io n o f th e Sic d e v e lo p e d by th e U .S . B u re a u o f th e C e n su s. To th e e x te n t p o ss ib le , p ric e s u se d in c a lc u la tin g P ro d u c e r P ric e In d e x e s ap p ly to th e first sig n ific a n t c o m m e rc ia l tra n sa c tio n in th e U n ite d S ta te s fro m th e p ro d u c tio n o r c e n tra l m a rk e tin g p o in t. P ric e d a ta are g e n e ra lly c o lle c te d m o n th ly , p rim a rily by m a il q u e stio n n a ire . M o st p ric e s are o b ta in e d d ire c tly fro m p ro d u c in g co m p a n ie s o n a v o lu n ta ry a n d c o n f id e n tia l b a s is . P ric e s g e n e ra lly are re p o rte d fo r th e T u e s d a y o f th e w e e k c o n ta in in g th e 13th day o f th e m o n th . Since January 1992, price changes for the v ario u s c o m m o d ities h av e b een averag ed O ctober 2003 T h e International Price Program p ro d u c e s m o n th ly an d q u a rte rly e x p o rt an d i m p o r t p r i c e i n d e x e s f o r n o n m i li ta r y g o o d s a n d s e r v ic e s tr a d e d b e tw e e n th e U n ite d S ta te s a n d th e re s t o f th e w o rld . T h e e x p o rt p ric e in d e x p ro v id e s a m e a su re o f p ric e c h a n g e fo r all p ro d u c ts so ld by U .S . re s id e n ts to fo re ig n b u y e rs . (“ R e s i d e n ts” is d e fin e d as in th e n a tio n a l in co m e a c c o u n ts; it in c lu d e s c o rp o ra tio n s , b u s i n e ss e s, a n d in d iv id u a ls, b u t d o e s n o t r e q u ire th e o rg a n iz a tio n s to b e U .S . o w n e d n o r th e in d iv id u a ls to h a v e U .S . c itiz e n sh ip .) T h e im p o rt p ric e in d e x p ro v id e s a m e a s u re o f p ric e c h a n g e fo r g o o d s p u r c h a se d fro m o th e r c o u n trie s by U .S . re s i d e n ts . T h e p ro d u c t u n iv e rse fo r b o th th e im p o rt a n d e x p o rt in d e x e s in c lu d e s ra w m a te ria ls, a g ric u ltu ra l p ro d u c ts, se m ifin ish e d m a n u fa c tu re s, an d fin is h e d m a n u fa c tu re s, i n c l u d i n g b o th c a p i t a l a n d c o n s u m e r g o o d s. P ric e d a ta fo r th e s e ite m s a re c o l le c te d p rim a rily by m a il q u e stio n n a ire . In n e a rly all c a se s , th e d a ta a re c o lle c te d d i re c tly fro m th e e x p o rte r o r im p o rte r, a l th o u g h in a few c a se s, p ric e s a re o b ta in e d fro m o th e r so u rc e s. To th e e x te n t p o s s ib le , th e d a ta g a th e re d re fe r to p ric e s at th e U .S . b o rd e r fo r e x p o rts a n d a t e ith e r th e fo re ig n b o rd e r o r th e U .S . b o rd e r fo r im p o rts. F o r n e a rly all p ro d u c ts, th e p ric e s re f e r to tra n sa c tio n s c o m p le te d d u rin g th e f irs t w e e k o f th e m o n th . S u rv e y re s p o n d e n ts are a sk e d to in d ic a te a ll d is c o u n ts, a llo w a n c e s, a n d r e b a te s a p p lic a b le to th e re p o rte d p ric e s, so th a t th e p ric e u se d in th e c a lc u la tio n o f th e in d e x e s is th e a c tu a l p ric e fo r w h ic h th e p ro d u c t w as b o u g h t o r sold. In addition to general indexes o f prices for U .S. exports and im ports, indexes are also published for detailed product categories o f ex p o rts and im ports. T h ese cate g o ries are defined according to the five-digit level o f detail for the B ureau o f Econom ic A nalysis End-use C lassification, the th ree-d ig it level for the Standard Industrial Classification (SITC), and the four-digit level o f detail for the Harm onized System . A ggregate im port indexes by coun try or region o f origin are also available. publishes indexes for selected cat egories o f internationally traded services, calculated on an international basis and on a balance-of-paym ents basis. tive to changes in the various inputs. T he m easures cover the business, nonfarm busi ness, m anufacturing, and nonfinancial corpo rate sectors. Corresponding indexes o f hourly com pen sation, unit labor costs, unit nonlabor p ay m ents, and prices are also provided. Definitions bls Notes on the d ata T h e e x p o rt an d im p o rt p ric e in d e x e s are w e ig h te d in d e x e s o f th e L a sp e y re s ty p e. T h e tra d e w e ig h ts c u rre n tly u se d to c o m p u te b o th in d e x e s re la te to 2 0 0 0 . B ecause a price index depends on the sam e item s being priced from period to period, it is n e c e ssa ry to re c o g n iz e w h en a p ro d u c t’s specifications o r term s o f transaction have been m odified. F o r this reason, the B ureau’s questionnaire requests detailed descriptions of the physical and functional characteristics o f the products being priced, as w ell as inform a tion on the num ber o f units bought or sold, discounts, credit term s, packaging, class o f buyer o r seller, and so forth. W hen there are changes in either the specifications or term s of transaction o f a product, the dollar value o f each change is deleted from the total price change to obtain the “pure” change. O nce this value is determ ined, a linking procedure is em ployed w hich allow s for the continued repric ing o f the item. For additional information, c o n ta c t the D ivision o f International P rices: (202) 6 9 1 -7 1 5 5 . Productivity Data (Tables 2; 4 3 -4 6 ) Business and major sectors Description of the series T he productivity m easures relate real output to real input. A s such, they encom pass a fam ily o f m easures w hich include single-factor input m easures, such as o utput per hour, out p u t p e r u n it o f la b o r input, o r o u tp u t per unit o f capital input, as w ell as m easures o f m ultifactor productivity (output p er unit o f com bined labor and capital inputs). T he B u reau indexes show the change in output rela https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Output per hour of all persons (labor p ro ductivity) is the quantity o f g oods and ser vices produced per h our o f labor input. Out put per unit of capital services (cap ital p roductivity) is the quantity o f goods and serv ices p ro d u ced p er u n it o f cap ital ser vices input. Multifactor productivity is the quantity o f goods and services produced per com bined inputs. For private business and pri vate nonfarm business, inputs include labor and capital units. F or m anufacturing, inputs include labor, capital, energy, nonenergy m ate rials, and purchased business services. Compensation per hour is to tal c o m p en satio n divided by hours at w ork. T otal com p en satio n equals the w ages and salaries o f em ployees plus e m p lo y e rs’ contributions for social insurance and private benefit plans, plus an estim ate o f these p aym ents for the self-em p lo y ed (ex cep t fo r no nfinancial co r p o ra tio n s in w h ich th ere are no se lf-e m p loyed). Real compensation per hour is c o m p e n s a tio n p e r h o u r d e fla te d by th e change in the C o n su m er P rice Index fo r A ll U rban C onsum ers. Unit labor costs are the labor co m p en sation costs ex p en d ed in the p ro d u ctio n o f a un it o f o u tp u t and are d eriv ed by dividing c o m p e n sa tio n by o u tp u t. Unit nonlabor payments in c lu d e p ro fits , d e p re c ia tio n , in terest, and indirect taxes p er u n it o f o u t put. They are com puted by subtracting com pensation o f all persons from current-dollar value o f output and dividing by output. Unit nonlabor costs c o n ta in all th e c o m p o n e n ts o f u n it n o n la b o r p a y m e n ts e x c e p t u n it p ro fits. Unit profits in c lu d e c o rp o ra te p ro fits w ith in v e n to ry v a lu a tio n a n d c a p ita l c o n su m p tio n a d ju s tm e n ts p e r u n it o f o u tp u t. H ours o f all persons a re th e to ta l h o u rs a t w o rk o f p a y ro ll w o rk e rs, selfe m p lo y e d p e r s o n s , a n d u n p a id fa m ily w o rk e rs. Labor inputs are h o u rs o f all p e rso n s a d ju s te d fo r th e e ffe c ts o f c h a n g e s in the edu catio n and experience o f the lab o r force. Capital services are th e flo w o f s e r v ic e s fro m th e c a p ita l sto c k u se d in p ro d u c tio n . It is d e v e lo p e d fro m m e a su re s o f th e n e t sto c k o f p h y sic a l a ss e ts— e q u ip m e n t, stru c tu re s, la n d , a n d in v e n to rie s— w e ig h te d by re n ta l p ric e s fo r e a c h ty p e o f a s s e t. Combined units o f labor and capital in p u ts a r e d e r i v e d b y c o m b i n i n g c h a n g e s in la b o r a n d c a p ita l in p u t w ith w e ig h ts w h ic h re p re se n t each c o m p o n e n t ’s s h a r e o f t o t a l c o s t. C o m b in e d u n its o f la b o r, c a p ita l, e n e rg y , m a te ria ls , an d p u rc h a s e d b u s in e s s s e rv ic e s a re s im ila rly d e riv e d by c o m b in in g c h a n g e s in e a c h in p u t w ith w e i g h t s t h a t r e p r e s e n t e a c h i n p u t ’s s h a r e o f to t a l c o s t s . T h e i n d e x e s f o r e a c h in p u t a n d f o r c o m b in e d u n its a re b a s e d o n c h a n g in g w e ig h ts w h ic h a re a v e ra g e s o f th e s h a re s in th e c u r r e n t a n d p r e c e d in g y e a r (th e T o r n q u is t in d e x n u m b e r fo r m u la ) . Notes on the data B u s in e s s s e c to r o u tp u t is a n a n n u a lly w e ig h te d in d e x c o n s tru c te d by e x c lu d in g fro m re a l g ro ss d o m e stic p ro d u c t ( g d p ) th e fo llo w in g o u tp u ts: g e n e ra l g o v e rn m e n t, n o n p ro fit in s titu tio n s, p a id e m p lo y e e s o f p riv a te h o u se h o ld s, a n d th e re n ta l v a lu e o f o w n e r-o c c u p ie d d w e llin g s. N o n fa rm b u sin e ss a lso e x c lu d e s fa rm in g . P riv a te b u s in e s s a n d p riv a te n o n fa rm b u s in e s s fu rth e r e x c lu d e g o v e rn m e n t e n te rp ris e s . T h e m e a su re s are su p p lie d by th e U .S . D e p a rtm e n t o f C o m m e rc e ’s B u re a u o f E c o nom ic A nalysis. A n n u al e stim ates o f m a n u fa c tu rin g se c to ra l o u tp u t are p ro d u c e d by th e B u re a u o f L a b o r S ta tis tic s . Q u a rte rly m a n u fa c tu rin g o u tp u t in d e x e s fro m th e F ederal R eserv e B o ard are adju sted to these an n u a l o u tp u t m e a s u re s by th e bls . C o m p e n sa tio n d a ta are d e v e lo p e d fro m d a ta o f th e B u re a u o f E c o n o m ic A n a ly sis a n d th e B u re a u o f L a b o r S ta tis tic s . H o u rs d a ta are d e v e lo p e d fro m d a ta o f th e B u re a u o f L a b o r S ta tis tic s. T h e p ro d u c tiv ity an d a s s o c ia te d c o s t m e a s u re s in ta b le s 4 3 - 4 6 d e sc rib e th e r e la tio n s h ip b e tw e e n o u tp u t in re a l te rm s an d th e la b o r an d c a p ita l in p u ts in v o lv e d in its p ro d u c tio n . T h e y sh o w th e c h a n g e s fro m p e rio d to p e rio d in th e a m o u n t o f g o o d s an d se rv ic e s p ro d u c e d p e r u n it o f in p u t. A lth o u g h th e s e m e a su re s re la te o u tp u t to h o u rs a n d c a p ita l se rv ic e s, th e y d o n o t m e a s u re th e c o n trib u tio n s o f la b o r, c a p i ta l, o r an y o th e r s p e c ific fa c to r o f p ro d u c tio n . R a th e r, th e y re fle c t th e jo in t e ffe c t o f m an y in flu e n c e s , in c lu d in g c h a n g e s in te c h n o lo g y ; sh ifts in th e c o m p o s itio n o f Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 61 Current Labor Statistics th e la b o r fo rc e ; c a p ita l in v e stm e n t; le v e l o f o u tp u t; c h a n g e s in th e u tiliz a tio n o f c a p a c ity , e n e rg y , m a te ria l, a n d re s e a rc h an d d e v e lo p m e n t; th e o rg a n iz a tio n o f p ro d u c tio n ; m a n a g e ria l skill; an d c h a ra c te ris tic s an d e ffo rts o f th e w o rk fo rce. FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION On th is p ro d u c tiv ity se rie s, c o n ta c t th e D iv is io n o f P r o d u c t iv i ty R e s e a r c h : (2 0 2 ) 691 — 5 6 06. Industry productivity measures Description of the series T h e bls in d u s try p r o d u c tiv ity in d e x e s m easure the relationship betw een output and inputs fo r selected industries and industry groups, and thus reflect trends in industry efficiency overtim e. Industry measures include labor productivity, m ultifactor productivity, com pensation, and unit labor costs. T h e in d u s try m e a s u re s d if f e r in m e th o d o lo g y a n d d a ta so u rc e s fro m th e productivity m easures for the m ajor sectors because the industry m easures are developed independently o f the N ational Incom e and P ro d u c t A ccounts fram ew o rk used fo r the m ajor sector m easures. Definitions index o f industry output by an index o f labor input. F or m ost industries, output indexes are derived from data on the value o f industry out put adjusted for price change. F or the rem ain ing industries, output indexes are derived from data on the physical quantity o f production. The labor input series consist o f the hours of all employees (production w orkers and nonpro duction workers), the hours o f all persons (paid employees, partners, proprietors, and unpaid fam ily workers), or the number o f employees, de pending upon the industry. Unit labor costs represent the labor com pensation costs per unit o f output produced, and are derived by dividing an index o f labor com pensation by an index o f output. Labor compensation includes payroll as w ell as supplem ental paym ents, including both legally required expenditures and paym ents for vol untary program s. Multifactor productivity is derived by dividing an index o f industry output by an index o f the com bined inputs consum ed in pro ducing that output. Combined inputs in clude capital, labor, and interm ediate p u r 62 Monthly Labor Review Notes on the data T h e in d u s try m e a s u re s are c o m p ile d fro m d a ta p ro d u c e d by th e B u reau o f L a b o r S ta tis tic s a n d th e B u re a u o f th e C e n su s,w ith a d d itio n a l d a ta su p p lie d by o th e r g o v e rn m e n t a g e n c ie s , tra d e a s s o c ia tio n s , a n d o th e r so u rc e s. F o r m o s t in d u s trie s , th e p ro d u c tiv ity in d e x e s re fe r to th e o u tp u t p e r h o u r o f all e m p lo y e e s. F o r so m e tra d e an d se rv ic e s in d u s trie s, in d e x e s o f o u tp u t p e r h o u r o f all p e rso n s (in c lu d in g s e lf-e m p lo y e d ) are c o n stru c te d . F o r so m e tra n s p o rta tio n in d u strie s , o n ly in d e x e s o f o u tp u t p e r e m p lo y e e are p re p a re d . FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION o n th is s e r ie s , c o n ta c t th e D iv is io n o f In d u s try P ro d u c tiv ity S tu d ie s : (2 0 2 ) 6 9 1 - 5 6 1 8 . International Comparisons (T ab le s 4 7 -4 9 ) Output per hour is derived by dividing an https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis chases. T he m easure o f capital input used represents the flow o f services from the capi tal stock used in production. It is developed from m easures o f the n et stock o f physical assets— equipm ent, structures, land, and in ven to ries. T he m easu re o f intermediate purchases is a co m b in atio n o f pu rch ased m aterials, services, fuels, and electricity. Labor force and unemployment Description of the series Tables 47 and 48 present com parative m eas ures o f the labor force, em ploym ent, and u n e m p lo y m e n t— a p p ro x im a tin g U .S . c o n cepts— fo r the U nited States, C anada, A us tralia, Japan, and several E uropean countries. T h e u n e m p lo y m e n t s ta tis tic s (a n d , to a le sse r e x te n t, e m p lo y m e n t s ta tistic s) p u b lish e d by o th e r in d u stria l c o u n tries are not, in m o s t c a se s, c o m p a ra b le to U .S . u n e m p lo y m e n t sta tistic s. T h e re fo re , th e B u re a u a d ju s ts th e fig u re s fo r s e le c te d c o u n trie s, w h ere necessary , fo r all k n o w n m a jo r d e fi n itio n a l d if f e r e n c e s . A lth o u g h p r e c is e c o m p a ra b ility m ay n o t b e a c h ie v e d , th e se a d ju s te d fig u re s p ro v id e a b e tte r b a sis fo r in te rn a tio n a l c o m p a riso n s th a n th e fig u re s re g u la rly p u b lish e d by e a c h c o u n try . F o r fu rth e r in fo rm a tio n o n a d ju s tm e n ts an d c o m p a r a b i l i t y i s s u e s , s e e C o n s ta n c e S o rre n tin o , “In te rn a tio n a l u n e m p lo y m e n t rates: how co m p a ra b le are th e y ? ” Monthly O ctober 2003 Labor Review, Ju n e 2 0 0 0 , p p. 3-20. Definitions F or the principal U.S. definitions o f the labor force, employment, and unemployment, see the N otes section on E m ploym ent and U nem ploym ent Data: H ousehold survey data. Notes on the data T he adjusted statistics have been adapted to the age at w hich com pulsory schooling ends in each country, rath er than to the U .S. stan dard o f 16 years o f age and older. T herefore, the adjusted statistics relate to the po p u la tion aged 16 and older in France, Sw eden, and the U nited K ingdom ; 15 and older in A ustra lia, Japan, G erm any, Italy from 1993 onw ard, and the N etherlands; and 14 and older in Italy p rio r to 1993. A n exception to this rule is that the C anadian statistics for 1976 onw ard are a d ju s te d to c o v e r ages 16 an d o ld er, w hereas the age at w hich com pulsory school ing e n d s re m a in s a t 15. T h e in stitu tio n a l population is included in the denom inator o f the labor force participation rates and em p lo y m e n t-p o p u la tio n ratio s fo r Ja p a n and G erm any; it is excluded for the U nited States and the other countries. In the U .S. labor force survey, persons on layoff w ho are aw aiting recall to their jo b s are classified as unem ployed. E uropean and Japanese lay o ff practices are quite different in nature from those in the U nited S tates; therefore, strict application o f the U .S. d efi nition has not been m ade on this point. F or further inform ation, see Monthly Labor Re view, D ecem ber 1981, pp. 8 -1 1 . T he figures for one o r m ore recen t years for France, G erm any, Italy, the N etherlands, and the U nited K ingdom are calculated using adjustm ent factors based on labor force sur veys for earlier years and are considered p re lim inary. T he recent-year m easures for these countries, therefore, are subject to revision w henever data from m ore curren t labor force surveys b ecom e available. T here are breaks in the data series for the U nited States (1 9 9 0 ,1 9 9 4 ,1 9 9 7 ,1 9 9 8 ,1 9 9 9 , 2000), C anada (1976) F rance (1992), G er m any (1991), Italy (1991, 1993), the N eth erlands (1988), and Sw eden (1987). F o r the U nited S tates, the break in series reflects a m ajor redesign o f the labor force survey questionnaire and collection m ethod ology introduced in January 1994. R evised population estim ates based on the 1990 cen sus, adjusted fo r the estim ated undercount, also w ere incorporated. In 1996, previously published data fo r the 1990-93 period w ere re v ise d to re fle c t th e 1990 c e n su s -b a se d p o p u la tio n c o n tro ls, a d ju ste d fo r th e u n dercount. In 1997, revised population co n trols w ere introduced into the household sur vey. T h e re fo re , th e d a ta a re n o t stric tly conparable w ith p rio r years. In 1998, new com posite estim ation procedures and m inor revisions in population controls w ere intro duced into the household survey. T herefore, the data are no t strictly com parable w ith data for 1997 and earlier years. See the N otes sec tio n on E m p lo y m e n t and U n e m p lo y m e n t D ata o f this Review. BLS recently introduced a new adjusted series fo r C anada. B eginning w ith the data fo r 1976, C anadian data are adjusted to m ore closely approxim ate U .S. concepts. A djust m ents are m ade to the unem ployed and labor force to exclude: (1) 15-year-olds; (2) p as sive jo bseekers (persons only reading new s pap er ads as their m ethod o f jo b search); (3) persons w aiting to start a new jo b w ho did not seek w ork in the p ast 4 w eeks; and (4) persons unavailable for w ork due to personal o r fam ily responsibilities. A n adjustm ent is m ade to include full-tine students looking for fu ll-tim e w ork. T h e im p act o f the ad ju st m ents w as to low er the annual average unem plo y m en t rate by 0 .1 -0 .4 percentage point in the 1980s and 0 .4 -1 .0 percentage p oint in the 1990s. F o r F rance, the 1992 break reflects the substitution o f standardized European U nion S tatistical O ffice (eurostat) unem ploym ent statistics fo r the u n e m p lo y m e n t data e sti m ated according to the International L abor O ffice (ilo) definition and published in the O rganization fo r E conom ic C ooperation and D evelopm ent (OECD) annual yearbook and quarterly update. T his change w as m ade b e cause the eurostat data are m ore up-to-date than the OECD figures. A lso, since 1992, the eurostat definitions are closer to the U .S. definitions than they w ere in p rio r years. T he im pact o f this revision w as to low er the un em p lo y m en t rate by 0.1 percentage p oint in 1992 and 1993, by 0 .4 percentage p oint in 1994, and 0.5 percentage point in 1995. F o r G erm any, the data for 1991 onw ard refer to unified G erm any. D ata prio r to 1991 relate to the form er W est G erm any. T he im pact o f including the form er E ast G erm any w as to increase the unem ploym ent rate from 4.3 to 5.6 percen t in 1991. F o r Italy, the 1991 break reflects a rev i sio n in th e m e th o d o f w e ig h tin g sa m p le d a ta . T h e im p a c t w as to in c re a se th e u n e m p lo y m e n t ra te by a p p ro x im a te ly 0.3 p e rc e n ta g e p o in t, fro m 6 .6 to 6.9 p e rc e n t in 1991. In O cto b er 1992, the survey m eth o d o l ogy w as revised and the definition o f unem p lo y m en t w as changed to include o nly those https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis w ho w ere actively looking for a jo b w ithin the 30 days preceding the survey and w ho w ere av aila b le fo r w ork. In ad d itio n , the low er age lim it for the labor force w as raised from 14 to 15 years. (P rior to these changes, bls ad ju ste d Ita ly ’s p u b lish ed u n e m p lo y m ent rate dow nw ard by excluding from the u n e m p lo y e d th o s e p e rs o n s w h o h a d n o t actively sought w ork in the past 30 days.) T he break in the series also reflects the incor poration o f the 1991 population census re sults. T he im pact o f these changes w as to raise Ita ly ’s adjusted unem ploym ent rate by approxim ately 1.2 percentage points, from 8.3 to 9.5 p erc e n t in fo u rth -q u arter 1992. T hese changes did n o t affect em ploym ent significantly, except in 1993. E stim ates by the Italian S tatistical O ffice indicate that em p lo y m e n t d e clin ed by ab o u t 3 p e rc e n t in 1993, rath er than the nearly 4 p ercent indi cated by the data show n in table 44. T his difference is attributable m ainly to the incor poration o f the 1991 population benchm arks in the 1993 data. D ata fo r earlier years have not been adjusted to incorporate the 1991 census results. F or the N etherlands, a new survey ques tionnaire was introduced in 1992 that allow ed fo r a c lo ser application o f ilo guidelines. eurostat has revised the D utch series back to 1988 based on the 1992 changes. T he 1988 revised unem ploym ent rate is 7.6 percent; the previous estim ate for the sam e year w as 9.3 percent. T here have been tw o breaks in series in the S w edish labor force survey, in 1987 and 1993. A djustm ents have been m ade for the 1993 break back to 1987. In 1987, a new q u e stio n n a ire w as in tro d u c e d . Q u e stio n s re g a rd in g c u rre n t a v a ila b ility w e re ad d e d an d th e p e rio d o f a c tiv e w o rk se e k in g w as re d u c e d fro m 60 d a y s to 4 w eek s. T h e se c h a n g e s lo w e re d S w e d e n ’s 1987 u n e m p lo y m e n t ra te by 0 .4 p e rc e n ta g e p o in t, fro m 2.3 to 1.9 p e rc e n t. In 1993, th e m e a su re m e n t p e rio d fo r the la b o r fo rc e su r vey w as c h a n g e d to re p re se n t all 52 w eek s o f th e y e a r ra th e r th a n o n e w e e k e a c h m o n th an d a new a d ju s tm e n t fo r p o p u la tio n to ta ls w as in tro d u c e d . T h e im p a c t w as to ra is e th e u n e m p lo y m e n t ra te by a p p ro x im a te ly 0.5 p e rc e n ta g e p o in t, fro m 7 .6 to 8.1 p e rc e n t. S ta tis tic s S w e d e n r e v ise d its la b o r fo rc e su rv ey d a ta fo r 1987— 92 to ta k e in to a c c o u n t th e b re a k in 1993. T h e a d ju s tm e n t ra ise d th e S w e d ish u n e m p lo y m e n t ra te by 0 .2 p e rc e n ta g e p o in t in 1987 an d g ra d u a lly ro s e to 0.5 p e rc e n ta g e p o in t in 1992. Beginning w ith 1987, BLS has adjusted the S w edish data to classify students w ho also sought w ork as unem ployed. T he im pact o f this change w as to increase the adjusted u n em ploym ent rate by 0.1 percentage p o in t in 1987 and by 1.8 percentage points in 1994, w hen unem ploym ent w as higher. In 1998, the adjusted un em p lo y m en t ra te h ad risen from 6.5 to 8.4 percent due to the adjustm ent to include students. T h e n e t e ffe c t o f th e 1987 an d 1993 c h a n g e s an d th e bls a d ju s tm e n t fo r s tu d e n ts s e e k in g w o rk lo w e re d S w e d e n ’s 1987 u n e m p lo y m e n t ra te fro m 2.3 to 2 .2 p e rc e n t. for additional information on this se ries, contact the D ivision o f F oreign L abor Statistics: (202) 6 9 1 -5 6 5 4 . Manufacturing productivity and labor costs Description of the series T able 49 p resen ts c o m p arativ e in d ex es o f m anufacturing labor productivity (output per hour), output, total hours, com pensation p er h o u r, and u n it la b o r co sts fo r th e U n ite d States, C anada, Japan, and nine E u ro p ean countries. T hese m easures are trend com pari sons— that is, series that m easure changes over tim e— rath er than level com parisons. T here are g reater technical problem s in co m paring the levels o f m an u factu rin g o u tp u t am ong countries. bls constructs the com parative indexes from three basic aggregate m easures— output, total lab o r hours, and total com pensation. T he hours and com pensation m easures refer to all em ployed persons (w age and salary earners plus self-em ployed persons and u n paid fam ily w orkers) in the U nited States, C anada, Japan, France, G erm any, N orw ay, and Sw eden, and to all em ployees (w age and salary earners) in the o ther countries. Definitions Output, in g e n e ra l, re fe rs to v a lu e a d d e d in m a n u fa c tu rin g fro m th e n a tio n a l a c c o u n ts o f e a c h c o u n try . H o w e v e r, th e o u tp u t se rie s fo r J a p a n p rio r to 1970 is an in d ex o f in d u s tria l p ro d u c tio n , an d th e n a tio n a l ac c o u n ts m e a su re s fo r th e U n ite d K in g d o m are e s s e n tia lly id e n tic a l to th e ir in d e x e s o f in d u s tria l p ro d u c tio n . T h e 1 9 7 7 - 9 7 o u t p u t d a t a f o r th e U n ite d S ta te s are th e g ro ss p ro d u c t o rig i n a tin g (v a lu e a d d e d ) m e a s u re s p re p a re d by th e B u re a u o f E c o n o m ic A n a ly sis o f th e U .S . D e p a rtm e n t o f C o m m e rc e . C o m p a ra b le m a n u fa c tu rin g o u tp u t d a ta c u r re n tly are n o t a v a ila b le p rio r to 1977. Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 63 Current Labor Statistics U .S. gross pro d u ct originating is a chainty p e a n n u a l-w e ig h te d series. (F o r m o re in fo rm a tio n on the U .S . m e a su re , see R o b e rt E . Y u sk a v a g e , “ Im p ro v e d E s tim a te s o f G ro s s P r o d u c t b y In d u s try , 1 9 5 9 - 9 4 ,” Survey o f Current Business, A u g u st 1996, p p. 1 3 3 -5 5 .) T h e Ja p a n e s e v a lu e a d d ed se rie s is b a se d u p o n o n e se t o f fix e d p ric e w e ig h ts fo r th e y e a rs 1970 th ro u g h 1997. O u tp u t se rie s fo r th e o th e r fo re ig n e c o n o m ie s a lso em p lo y fix e d p ric e w e ig h ts, b u t th e w e ig h ts are u p d a te d p e rio d ic a lly (fo r e x a m p le , e v e ry 5 o r 10 y e a rs). To p re s e rv e th e c o m p a ra b ility o f th e U .S . m e a s u re s w ith th o se fo r o th e r e c o n o m ie s, BLS u se s g ro ss p ro d u c t o rig in a tin g in m a n u fa c tu rin g fo r th e U n ite d S ta te s fo r th e s e c o m p a ra tiv e m e a s u re s. T h e g ro ss p ro d u c t o rig in a tin g se rie s d iffe rs fro m th e m a n u fa c tu rin g o u tp u t se rie s th a t BLS p u b lis h e s in its n e w s re le a s e s on q u a rte rly m e a s u re s o f U .S . p ro d u c tiv ity a n d c o sts (a n d th a t u n d e rlie s th e m e a s u re s th a t a p p e a r in ta b le s 43 a n d 45 in th is se c tio n ). T h e q u a rte rly m e a s u re s are on a “ se c to ra l o u tp u t” b a sis, ra th e r th a n a v a lu e -a d d e d b a sis. S e c to ra l o u tp u t is g ro ss o u tp u t less in tra s e c to r tra n sa c tio n s. Total labor hours refers to hours w orked in all countries. T he m easures are developed from statistics o f m anufacturing em ploym ent and average hours. T he series used for France (from 1970 forw ard), N orw ay, and Sw eden are official series p ublished w ith the national accounts. W here official total hours series are not available, the m easures are developed by BLS using em ploym ent figures published w ith the national accounts, o r o ther com prehen sive em ploym ent series, and estim ates o f an nual hours w orked. F o r G erm any, BLS uses estim ates o f average hours w orked developed by a research institute connected to the M in istry o f L abor for use w ith the national ac co u n ts e m p lo y m en t figures. F o r the o ther countries, BLS constructs its ow n estim ates o f average hours. D en m ark has not pu b lish ed estim ates o f av erage hours fo r 1 9 9 4 -9 7 ; therefore, the bls m easure o f labor input for D enm ark ends in 1993. Total compensation (labor cost) includes all paym ents in cash or in-kind m ade directly to em ployees plus em ployer expenditures for legally required insurance program s and con tractual and private benefit plans. The m ea sures are from the national accounts o f each country, except those for Belgium , w hich are developed by bls using statistics on em ploy m ent, average hours, and hourly com pensa tion. F or Canada, F rance, and Sw eden, com pensation is increased to account for other sig nificant taxes on payroll or em ploym ent. For the U nited K ingdom , com pensation is reduced betw een 1967 and 1991 to account for em 64 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis ploym ent-related subsidies. Self-em ployed workers are included in the all-em ployed-per sons m easures by assum ing that their hourly com pensation is equal to the average for w age and salary em ployees. Notes on the data In general, the m easures relate to total m anu facturing as defined by the International Stan dard Industrial C lassification. H ow ever, the m easures for F rance (for all years) and Italy (beginning 1970) refer to m ining and m anu facturing less energy-related products, and the m easures for D enm ark include m ining and exclude m anufacturing handicrafts from 1960 to 1966. T h e m e a s u re s fo r r e c e n t y e a rs m a y b e b a s e d o n c u r r e n t in d ic a to r s o f m a n u fa c tu rin g o u tp u t (s u c h as in d u s tria l p r o d u c tio n in d e x e s ), e m p lo y m e n t, a v e ra g e h o u rs , a n d h o u rly c o m p e n s a tio n u n til n a tio n a l a c c o u n ts a n d o th e r s t a tis tic s u s e d f o r th e lo n g - te rm m e a s u re s b e c o m e a v a ila b le . F or ADDITIONAL INFORMATION o n th is s e r ie s , c o n ta c t th e D iv is io n o f F o re ig n L a b o r S ta tis tic s: (2 0 2 ) 6 9 1 -5 6 5 4 . O ccupational Injury and Illness Data (Tables 5 0 -5 1 ) Survey of Occupational Injuries and Illnesses Definitions U nder the O ccupational Safety and H ealth A ct, em ployers m aintain records o f nonfatal w ork-related injuries and illnesses that in volve one or m ore o f the follow ing: loss o f consciousness, restriction o f w ork o r m otion, transfer to another jo b , or m edical treatm ent other than first aid. Occupational injury is any injury such as a cut, fracture, sprain, or am putation that re sults from a work-related event or a single, in stantaneous exposure in the w ork environment. Occupational illness is an abnorm al con dition or disorder, other than one resulting from an occupational injury, caused by exposure to factors associated w ith em ploym ent. It in cludes acute and chronic illnesses or disease w hich m ay be caused by inhalation, absorp tion, ingestion, o r direct contact. Lost workday injuries and illnesses are cases that involve days aw ay from w ork, o r days o f restricted w ork activity, o r both. Lost workdays in clu d e th e n u m b e r o f w o rk d a y s (c o n se c u tiv e o r n o t) o n w h ic h th e em p lo y e e w as e ith e r aw ay fro m w o rk o r at w o rk in som e re s tric te d cap acity , o r bo th , b e c a u se o f an o c c u p a tio n a l in ju ry o r illn ess, bls m e a su re s o f th e n u m b e r an d in c id e n c e ra te o f lo s t w o rk d a y s w e re d is c o n tin u e d b e g in n in g w ith th e 1993 s u r v e y . T h e n u m b e r o f d a y s a w a y fr o m w o rk o r d a y s o f re s tr ic te d w o rk a c tiv ity d o e s n o t in c lu d e th e d a y o f in ju ry o r o n s e t o f illn e s s o r a n y d a y s o n w h ic h th e e m p lo y e e w o u ld n o t h a v e w o rk e d , su c h as a F e d e ra l h o lid a y , e v e n th o u g h a b le to w o rk . Incidence rates are com puted as the num ber o f injuries and/or illnesses o r lost w ork days per 100 full-tim e workers. Description of the series T he Survey o f O ccupational Injuries and Ill nesses collects data from em ployers about th e ir w o rk e rs’ jo b -re la te d nonfatal injuries and illnesses. T he inform ation th at em p lo y ers pro v id e is based on reco rd s th at they m aintain under the O ccupational S afety and H ealth A ct o f 1970. S elf-em ployed individu als, farm s w ith few er th an 11 em ployees, em ployers regulated by other Federal safety and h ealth law s, and F ederal, State, and lo cal go v ern m en t agencies are e xcluded from the survey. T h e su rv ey is a F e d e ra l-S ta te c o o p e ra tiv e p ro g ra m w ith an in d e p e n d e n t sam p le se le c te d fo r e a c h p a rtic ip a tin g S ta te . A stra tifie d ra n d o m sa m p le w ith a N e y m a n a llo c a tio n is se le c te d to re p re s e n t all p r i v a te in d u s trie s in th e S ta te . T h e su rv ey is stra tifie d by S ta n d a rd In d u s tria l C la s s ifi c a tio n an d siz e o f e m p lo y m e n t. O ctober 2003 Notes on the data T he definitions o f occupational injuries and illnesses are from Recordkeeping Guidelines for Occupational Injuries and Illnesses (U .S. D epartm ent o f Labor, B ureau o f L abor S ta tistics, S eptem ber 1986). Estim ates are m ade for industries and em ploym ent size classes for total recordable cases, lost w orkday cases, days aw ay from w ork cases, and nonfatal cases w ithout lost w ork days. T hese data also are show n separately for injuries. Illness data are available for seven cat egories: occupational skin diseases or disorders, dust diseases o f the lungs, respiratory condi tions due to toxic agents, poisoning (system ic effects o f toxic agents), disorders due to physi cal agents (other than toxic materials), disorders associated w ith repeated traum a, and all other occupational illnesses. The survey continues to m easure the num - ber o f new work-related illness cases which are recognized, diagnosed, and reported during the year. S om e conditions, for exam ple, long-term latent illnesses caused by exposure to carcino gens, often are difficult to relate to the w ork place and are not adequately recognized and reported. These long-term latent illnesses are believed to be understated in the survey’s ill ness m easure. In contrast, the overw helm ing m ajority o f the reported new illnesses are those w hich are easier to directly relate to workplace activity (for exam ple, contact derm atitis and carpal tunnel syndrom e). M o st o f th e estim a te s are in the fo rm o f in c id e n c e ra te s, d e fin e d as th e n u m b e r o f in ju rie s an d illn e s se s p e r 100 e q u iv a le n t f u ll- tim e w o rk e rs . F o r th is p u rp o s e , 2 0 0 ,0 0 0 e m p lo y e e h o u rs re p r e s e n t 100 e m p lo y e e y e a r s ( 2 ,0 0 0 h o u rs p e r e m p lo y e e ). F u ll d e ta il on th e a v a ila b le m e a su res is p re s e n te d in th e an n u a l b u lletin , O ccu pation al In juries and Illn esses: Counts, Rates, and Characteristics. C om parable data for m ore than 40 States and territories are available from the bls O f fice o f Safety, H ealth and W orking C ondi tions. M any o f these States publish data on State and local governm ent em ployees in ad dition to private industry data. M ining and railroad data are furnished to bls by the M ine Safety and H ealth A dm inis tration and the F ederal R ailroad A dm inistra tion. D ata from these organizations are in c lu d ed in b o th the national and State data p ublished annually. W ith the 1992 survey, bls began publish ing details on serious, nonfatal incidents re sulting in days aw ay from w ork. Included are som e m ajor characteristics o f the injured and ill w orkers, such as occupation, age, gender, race, and length o f service, as w ell as the https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis circum stances o f their injuries and illnesses (nature o f the disabling condition, p art o f body affected, event and exposure, and the source directly producing the condition). In general, these data are available nationw ide fo r d e ta ile d in d u stries and fo r in d iv id u al States at m ore aggregated industry levels. For additional information on o ccu pational injuries and illnesses, contact the O f fice o f O ccupational Safety, H ealth and W ork ing C onditions at (202) 6 9 1 -6 1 8 0 , o r access the Internet at: http ://www.bls.gov/iify Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries T he C ensus o f Fatal O ccupational Injuries com piles a com plete roster o f fatal jo b -re lated injuries, including detailed data about th e fa ta lly in ju re d w o rk e rs an d th e fa ta l e v e n ts . T h e p ro g ra m c o lle c ts a n d c ro s s ch eck s fatality in form ation from m u ltip le sources, including d eath certificates, State and F ederal w o rk ers’ com pensation reports, O ccupational Safety and H ealth A dm inistra tion and M ine Safety and H ealth A dm inis tration records, m edical ex am in er and au topsy reports, m edia accounts, State m otor vehicle fatality records, and follow -up q ues tionnaires to em ployers. In addition to priv ate w age and salary w orkers, the self-em ployed, fam ily m em bers, and F ed eral, S tate, and local g o v ern m en t w orkers are covered by the program . To be included in the fatality census, the decedent m ust have been em ployed (that is w orking fo r pay, com pensation, o r profit) at the tim e o f the event, engaged in a legal w ork activity, or present at the site o f the incident as a re quirem ent o f his or her job. Definition A fatal work injury is an y in te n tio n a l o r u n in te n tio n a l w o u n d o r d a m a g e to th e b o d y re s u ltin g in d e a th fro m a c u te e x p o su re to en erg y , su c h as h e a t o r e le c tric ity , o r k in e tic e n e rg y fro m a c ra s h , o r fro m th e a b se n c e o f su c h e s s e n tia ls as h e a t o r o x y g en c a u se d by a sp e c ific e v e n t o r in c id e n t o r se rie s o f e v e n ts w ith in a sin g le w o rk d ay o r sh ift. F a ta litie s th a t o c c u r d u rin g a p e rs o n ’s c o m m u te to o r fro m w o rk a re e x c lu d e d fro m th e c e n su s , as w e ll as w o rk re la te d illn e s s e s , w h ic h c a n be d if fic u lt to id e n tify d u e to lo n g la te n c y p e rio d s. Notes on the d ata T w e n ty -e ig h t d a ta e le m e n ts are c o lle c te d , c o d e d , an d ta b u la te d in th e fa ta lity p ro g ra m , in c lu d in g in fo rm a tio n a b o u t th e fa tally in ju re d w o rk er, th e fa ta l in cid en t, and th e m a c h in e ry o r e q u ip m e n t in v o lv e d . S u m m a ry w o rk e r d e m o g ra p h ic d a ta a n d e v e n t c h a ra c te ris tic s are in c lu d e d in a n a tio n a l n e w s re le a s e th a t is a v a ila b le a b o u t 8 m o n th s a fte r th e e n d o f th e re fe re n c e y ear. T h e C e n su s o f F a ta l O c c u p a tio n a l In ju rie s w as in itia te d in 1992 as a jo in t F e d e ra l-S ta te e f f o rt. M o s t S ta te s is s u e su m m a ry in fo rm a tio n a t th e tim e o f th e n a tio n a l n ew s re le a se . F or additional information on the C en su s o f F a ta l O c c u p a tio n a l In ju rie s c o n ta c t th e bls O ffice o f S afety, H e a lth , and W orking C o n d itio n s a t (2 0 2 ) 6 9 1 -6 1 7 5 , o r th e In te rn e t at: http://www.bls.gov/iif/ Where to find additional data Current and historical statistics from Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys are available at the addresses listed on the inside back cover of this Review, or on the Internet at http://www.bls.gov Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 65 Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data 1. Labor market indicators Selected indicators 2001 2001 2002 II 2002 III IV I II 2003 III IV 1 II E m p lo y m e n t d a ta Employment status of the civilian nonlnstitutional population (household survey):1 Labor force participation rate......................................................... Employment-population ratio......................................................... Unemployment rate........................................................................ 66.8 63.7 4.7 66.6 62.7 5.8 66.8 63.8 4.4 Men................................................................................................ 16 to 24 years............................................................................. 4.8 11.4 5.9 12.8 4.7 4.5 11.2 3.4 4.9 11.4 5.6 11.1 4.3 9.2 4.8 10.1 4.6 3.4 3.8 25 years and older...................................................................... 3.6 Women.......................................................................................... 16 to 24 years............................................................................. 4.7 9.6 3.7 25 years and older...................................................................... 66.7 63.5 4.8 3.7 66.8 63.0 5.6 5.7 12.7 4.4 5.5 10.7 4.4 66.6 62.8 66.7 5.6 5.7 12.9 5.9 6.0 12.8 62.8 66.6 62.8 5.8 5.9 66.5 62.5 5.9 6.1 12.5 66.3 62.4 5.8 66.4 6.0 12.4 6.5 14.2 4.9 5.3 5.7 4.5 4.8 13.1 4.7 5.5 11.0 4.4 5.7 11.2 5.6 10.9 4.9 5.7 11.4 5.5 11.1 4.8 4.6 4.6 4.4 62.3 6.2 11.9 4.6 Employment, nonfarm (payroll data), in thousands:1 Total nonfarm................................................................................... 131,826 110,707 130,376 108,886 132,180 131,712 130,920 130,523 110,516 109,593 109,105 130,403 108,918 130,239 108,755 130,338 108,792 130,225 108,655 129,984 111,129 22,619 15,306 24,118 23,684 23,226 Manufacturing.......................................................................... 23,873 16,441 16,661 16,243 15,833 22,880 15,517 22,673 15,369 22,537 15,246 22,389 15,085 22,213 14,926 22,093 14,744 Service-providing....................................................................... 107,952 107,757 108,063 108,028 107,694 107,643 107,730 107,702 107,949 108,012 107,891 Total private........................................................................ Goods-producing....................................................................... 108,488 Average hours: Total private.................................................................................. Manufacturing............................................................................. Overtime.................................................................................. 34.0 40.3 4.0 33.9 40.5 4.2 34.0 40.4 4.1 33.9 40.4 .9 1.0 33.9 40.4 33.9 40.6 4.0 33.8 40.1 3.8 4.0 1.2 .9 .8 .8 1.0 1.1 33.8 40.4 33.8 40.4 33.7 40.2 4.2 33.9 40.5 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.0 .9 1.1 .9 .6 .4 1.4 .6 .8 .8 E m p lo y m e n t C o s t In d e x 2 Percent change in the ECI, compensation: All workers (excluding farm, household and Federal workers)..... Private industry workers............................................................... 4.1 3.4 4.2 3.2 1.7 Goods-producing3.................................................................... 3.8 3.7 .9 .7 .8 1.2 .9 .6 .9 1.8 .9 Service-providing3.................................................................... State and local government workers 4.3 4.2 3.1 4.1 1.0 .6 1.0 2.1 .8 .6 1.1 .6 1.2 .4 .6 2.2 .2 .9 1.5 .7 .8 .4 Workers by bargaining status (private industry): Union................................................................................................ Nonunion.......................................................................................... 4.2 4.1 4.2 3.2 1.1 1.0 1.0 .9 1.4 .7 1.1 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.2 .5 .9 .4 1.6 1.6 1.2 .8 1 Quarterly data seasonally adjusted. Note : Beginning in January 2003, household survey data reflect revised population 2 Annual changes are December-to-December changes. Quarterly changes are calculated controls. Nonfarm data reflect the conversion to the 2002 version of the North American using the last month of each quarter. Industry Classification System (NAICS), replacing the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) 3 Goods-producing industries include mining, construction, and manufacturing. Service system. NAics-based data by industry are not comparable with sic-based data. providing industries include all other private sector industries. 66 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2003 2. Annual and quarterly percent changes in compensation, prices, and productivity Selected m easures 2001 2001 2002 2003 2002 II III IV I II III IV I II C o m p e n s a t io n d a t a 1,2 Employment Cost Index— compensation (wages, salaries, benefits): Civilian nonfarm......................................................................... 4.1 3.4 0.9 1.2 0.8 1.0 0.9 0.9 0.6 1.4 0.8 Private nonfarm.................................................................... 4.2 3.2 1.0 .9 .8 1.1 1.1 .6 .4 1.7 .8 Employment Cost Index— wages and salaries: Civilian nonfarm....................................................................... 3.7 2.9 .9 1.0 .7 9 8 7 4 1.0 6 Private nonfarm.................................................................... 3.8 2.7 1.0 .8 .8 .9 1.0 .4 .3 1.1 .7 3.4 1.2 1.0 .2 - .9 .7 .5 .6 -.1 1.8 - .3 Finished goods........................................................................... -1 .8 -1 .2 .8 -.3 -3 .2 1.1 -2 .4 -1 .6 1.0 -.3 -4 3 1.5 .2 4 .2 o -.1 -3 3.7 24 - .8 Finished consumer goods..................................................... P r ic e d a t a 1 Consumer Price Index (All Urban Consumers): All Items...... Producer Price Index: Capital equipment................................................................... 1.0 -.4 -7.1 -.1 .1 2.9 - .3 - .7 .6 .6 - .6 Intermediate materials, supplies, and components............... - .2 -1 .2 .6 -1 .0 -3 .6 .9 1.1 1.1 .1 6.5 -2.1 Crude materials........................................................................... -8 .8 -10.6 -6 .6 -1 2 .0 -12.2 8.0 37.1 1.9 6.5 28.0 -1 0 .6 Business sector........................................................................... 2.0 5.3 1.5 3.3 8.7 8.7 .8 5.9 1.5 2.7 7.2 Nonfarm business sector........................................................... 1.9 5.4 1.6 3.4 8.3 9.3 1.0 5.9 1.7 2.1 6.8 2.0 5.8 4.7 4.4 10.8 5.0 5.5 3.1 3.8 4.3 8.1 P r o d u c t iv it y d a t a 3 Output per hour of all persons: Nonfinancial corporations4........................................................ Annual changes are December-to-December changes. Quarterly changes are 3 Annual rates of change are computed by comparing annual averages. calculated using the last month of each quarter. Compensation and price data are not Quarterly percent changes reflect annual rates of change In quarterly Indexes. seasonally adjusted, and the price data are not compounded. The data are seasonally adjusted. 2 Excludes Federal and private household workers. 4 Output per hour of all employees. 3. Alternative measures of wage and compensation changes Q uarterly average Com ponents Four quarters ending 2002 II III 2003 IV 1 2002 II II III 2003 IV I II Average hourly compensation:1 All persons, business sector............................................................. All persons, nonfarm business sector.............................................. 4.0 3.9 2.1 2.0 1.6 1.6 4.8 4.1 4.3 3.8 3.0 3.0 2.9 2.9 2.8 2.8 3.1 2.9 3.2 2.9 .9 1.1 1.0 1.1 .4 .9 .6 1.2 .5 2.2 .6 .4 .9 .4 .9 .8 .8 1.6 1.6 .7 1.4 1.7 1.2 .8 .4 4.0 4.0 4.5 3.9 3.6 3.7 3.7 4.7 3.5 3.8 3.4 3.2 4.2 3.2 4.1 3.9 3.8 4.7 3.6 4.2 3.7 3.5 5.0 3.3 4.1 .8 1.0 .9 1.0 .3 .7 .4 1.0 .4 1.8 .4 .3 .8 .3 .6 1.0 1.1 .5 1.2 .4 .6 .7 .7 .7 .3 3.5 3.6 4.2 3.5 3.2 3.2 3.2 4.3 3.1 3.1 2.9 2.7 3.5 2.7 3.2 2.9 3.0 3.3 2.9 3.1 2.7 2.6 3.0 2.5 3.1 Employment Cost Index— compensation: Civilian nonfarm2.................................................................................. Private nonfarm................................................................................. Union................................................................................................. Nonunion.......................................................................................... State and local governments.......................................................... Employment Cost Index—wages and salaries: Civilian nonfarm2.................................................................................. Private nonfarm............................................................... ................. Union................................................................................................. Nonunion.......................................................................................... State and local governments.......................................................... 1 Seasonally adjusted. "Quarterly average" Is percent change from a quarter ago, at an annual rate. 2 Excludes Federal and household workers. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 67 Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data 4. Employment status of the population, by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, monthly data seasonally adjusted [Numbers in thousands] Employment status 2002 Annual average 2001 2003 2002 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. 217,570 144,863 66.6 136,485 217,866 145,123 66.6 136,757 218,107 145,634 66.8 137,312 218,340 145,393 66.6 136,988 218,548 145,180 66.4 136,542 218,741 219,897 220,317 145,793 66.2 137,348 220,540 146,473 66.4 137,687 220,768 146,485 66.4 137,487 147,096 66.6 137,738 221,252 146,540 66.2 137,478 221,507 145,838 66.3 137,536 220,114 145,857 66.3 137,408 221,014 145,150 66.4 136,439 62.7 8,378 5.8 72,707 62.8 8,366 5.8 72,743 63.0 8,321 5.7 72,473 62.7 62.4 8,711 6.0 73,591 62.5 8,302 5.7 74,059 8,450 5.8 74,257 62.3 8,445 5.8 74,524 62.4 8,405 5.8 72,947 62.5 8,637 5.9 73,369 62.4 6,801 4.7 71,359 8,786 6.0 74,067 62.3 8,998 6.1 74,283 62.3 9,358 6.4 73,918 62.1 9,062 6.2 74,712 8,905 6.1 74,977 95,181 96,439 96,552 96,732 96,860 97,022 97,139 97,635 97,762 97,869 97,979 98,083 98,196 98,304 98,434 72,816 76.5 69,776 73,630 76.3 69,734 73,802 76.4 69,895 74,108 76.6 70,213 73,883 76.3 69,921 73,770 76.0 69,617 73,744 75.9 69,600 73,993 75.8 69,967 74,254 76.0 70,293 74,236 75.9 70,293 74,571 76.1 70,364 74,506 76.0 70,144 74,692 76.1 70,130 74,581 75.9 70,193 74,561 75.7 70,203 73.3 3,040 4.2 22,365 72.3 3,896 5.3 22,809 72.4 72.6 3,895 5.3 22,623 72.2 3,962 5.4 22,977 71.8 4,153 5.6 23,252 71.6 4,145 5.6 23,394 71.7 3,906 5.3 22,750 4,026 5.4 23,642 71.9 3,962 5.3 23,508 71.8 3,944 5.3 23,632 71.8 4,207 5.6 23,408 71.5 4,362 5.9 23,577 71.4 4,562 6.1 23,504 71.4 4,388 5.9 23,724 71.3 4,357 5.8 23,873 population1.......................... Civilian labor force.............. Participation rate......... Employed........................ Employment-pop- 103,983 105,136 105,334 105,421 105,509 105,594 105,678 106,235 106,322 106,411 106,724 106,839 106,957 63,648 60.5 60,420 63,760 60.5 60,581 63,858 60.6 60,675 63,975 60.6 60,668 63,921 60.5 60,697 64,036 60.6 60,676 64,479 60.7 61,443 64,310 60.5 61,073 64,477 60.6 61,227 106,510 64,677 60.7 61,401 106,613 63,016 60.6 60,417 64,733 60.7 61,436 65,148 61.0 61,753 64,819 60.7 61,462 64,831 60.6 61,470 58.1 57.5 3,308 5.2 41,533 57.5 3,224 5.0 41,673 57.4 3,360 5.2 41,642 3,035 4.7 41,757 57.4 3,237 5.0 42,013 57.5 3,250 5.0 41,933 57.6 3,276 5.1 41,834 57.6 3,297 5.1 41,880 57.9 3,180 5.0 41,574 57.6 3,184 5.0 41,563 57.8 2,599 4.1 40,967 57.5 3,228 5.1 41,488 57.5 Unemployed................... Unemployment rate.... Not in the labor force........ 3,395 5.2 41,576 57.5 3,357 5.2 42,020 3,361 5.2 42,126 15,929 7,902 49.6 6,740 15,994 15,980 15,954 15,971 15,933 16,095 16,109 16,116 7,535 47.2 6,400 7,489 47.0 6,228 7,293 45.5 6,042 16,038 7,079 44.1 5,829 16,072 7,667 48.1 6,425 16,027 7,366 46.0 6,125 16,051 7,561 47.3 6,280 15,925 7,369 46.3 6,164 16,030 7,585 47.4 6,332 7,226 45.0 5,923 7,246 45.1 5,907 7,256 45.1 5,855 7,140 44.3 5,823 7,139 44.3 5,952 42.3 1,162 14.7 8,027 39.6 1,253 16.5 8,409 39.3 1,280 16.9 8,419 40.3 1,243 16.2 8,287 40.1 1,135 15.1 8,436 39.1 1,261 16.8 8,444 38.7 1,206 16.4 8,555 38.2 1,241 16.8 8,661 37.7 1,251 17.1 8,736 36.3 1,251 17.7 8,959 36.9 1,303 18.0 8,825 36.8 1,339 18.5 8,826 36.4 1,401 19.3 8,839 36.1 1,317 18.4 8,969 36.9 1,187 16.4 8,977 TOTAL C iv ilia n noninstitutional population1.......................... 215,092 Civilian labor force............. 143,734 Participation rate......... 66.8 Employed........................ 136,933 Employment-pop63.7 ulation ratio2............. Unemployed................... Unemployment rate.... Not in the labor force....... 146,530 66.2 137,625 62.1 M en , 20 yea rs a n d o v er Civilian noninstitutional population1.......................... Civilian labor force............. Participation rate......... Employed........................ Employment-population ratio2............. Unemployed................... Unemployment rate.... Not in the labor force........ W o m e n , 20 y e a rs a n d o v er Civilian noninstitutional 57.5 B o th s e x e s , 1 6 t o 1 9 y e a rs Civilian noninstitutional Civilian labor force.............. Participation rate......... Employed........................ Employment-popUnemployed................... Unemployment rate.... Not in the labor force........ W h it e 3 Civilian noninstitutional population1.......................... 178,111 Civilian labor force.............. 119,399 Participation rate......... 67.0 Employed........................ 114,430 Employment-pop64.2 Unemployed................... 4,969 Unemployment rate.... 4.2 Not in the labor force........ 58,713 179,783 179,979 180,450 180,580 180,460 180,599 180,728 180,873 181,021 181,184 181,341 181,512 120,449 66.9 114,250 180,146 120,502 66.9 114,373 180,306 120,150 66.8 114,013 120,479 66.8 114,294 120,345 66.7 114,128 120,093 66.5 113,910 120,084 66.5 113,995 120,166 66.5 114,135 120,200 66.5 114,089 120,575 66.7 114,286 120,420 66.5 113,882 120,881 66.7 114,203 120,623 66.5 114,044 120,669 66.5 114,141 63.4 63.5 6,199 5.1 59,530 63.5 6,129 5.1 59,644 63.4 6,184 5.1 59,828 63.2 6,218 5.2 60,104 63.1 6,184 5.1 60,487 63.2 6,089 5.1 60,376 63 2 6,031 5.0 60,432 63 1 6,111 5.1 60,528 63.2 6,289 5.2 60,298 62.9 6,539 5.4 60,601 63.0 6,678 5.5 60,303 62.9 6,580 5.5 60,717 62.9 6,528 5.4 60,843 25,751 16,540 64.2 14,754 25,784 16,706 64.8 14,827 25,484 16,374 64.3 14,684 25,519 25,552 25,664 25,702 25,142 16,296 63.8 14,641 25,587 16,521 64.6 14,723 25,624 16,395 64.2 14,669 16,618 64.9 14,819 16,717 65.1 14,746 16,540 64.4 14,697 16,579 64.4 14,769 57.3 1,786 10.8 9,211 57.5 1,879 11.2 9,078 57.6 1,690 10.3 9,110 57.5 1,726 10.5 9,124 57.3 1,655 10.2 9,256 57.5 1,797 10.9 9,066 57.8 1,799 10.8 9,007 57.5 1,971 11.8 8,947 57.2 1,842 11.1 9,162 1,810 10.9 9,163 6,137 5.1 59,633 B la c k o r A fric a n A m e r ic a n 3 Civilian noninstitutional Civilian labor force.............. Participation rate........ Employed........................ Employment-population ratio2............. Unemployed................... Unemployment rate.... Not in the labor force........ 25,138 16,421 65.3 15,006 25,578 25,633 16,541 64.5 14,907 25,675 25,717 16,565 64.8 14,872 16,789 65.4 15,148 16,682 64.9 15,027 59.7 58.1 1,693 10.2 9,013 58.2 1,634 9.9 9,092 59.0 1,641 9.8 8,886 1,656 9.9 9,034 1,416 8.6 8,717 See footnotes at end of table. 68 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2003 58.4 57.4 4. Continued—Employment status of the population, by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, monthly data seasonally adjusted [Numbers in thousands] 2003 2002 Annual average Employment status Dec. Jan. Feb Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. 2001 2002 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov 24,942 17,328 69.5 16,190 25,963 17,943 69.1 16,590 26,096 18,030 69.1 16,664 26,184 18,103 69.1 16,739 26,272 18,049 68.7 16,637 26,355 18,169 68.9 16,755 26,436 18,134 68.6 16,708 26,994 18,614 69.0 17,155 28 18,658 68.9 17,223 27,191 18,614 68.5 17,215 27,291 18,836 69.0 17,428 27,391 18,811 68.7 17,264 27,494 18,856 68.6 17,271 27,597 18,750 67.9 17,206 27,701 18,829 68.0 17,370 64.9 1,138 6.6 7,614 63.9 1,353 7.5 8,020 63.9 1,366 7.6 8,066 63.9 1,363 7.5 8,082 63.3 1,412 7.8 8,223 63.6 1,414 7.8 8,188 63.2 1,425 7.9 8,303 63.5 1,459 7.8 8,380 63.6 1,436 7.7 8,436 63.3 1,399 7.5 8,577 63.9 1,408 7.5 8,455 63.0 1,548 8.2 8,580 62.8 1,586 8.4 8,638 62.3 1,544 8.2 8,847 62.7 1,460 7.8 8,872 Hispanic or Latino ethnicity Civilian noninstitutional Civilian labor force............. Participation rate......... Employment-popUnemployed................... Unemployment rate... Not in the labor force......... 1 The population figures are not seasonally adjusted. NOTE: Estimates for the above race groups (white and black or African American) do not sum 2 Civilian employment as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population. to totals because data are not presented for all races. In addition, persons whose ethnicity is 3 Beginning in 2003, persons who selected this race group only; persons who selected more than one race group are not included. Prior to 2003, persons who reported more identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race and, therefore, are classified by ethnicity as well as by race. Beginning in January 2003, data reflect revised population controls used in the than one race were included in the group they identified as the main race. household survey. 5. S e le c te d e m p lo y m e n t Indicators, m o nthly d a ta seaso nally ad ju sted [In thousands] 2003 2002 Annual average Selected categories 2001 2002 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. 136,933 73,196 63,737 136,485 72,903 63,582 136,757 73,023 63,734 137,312 73,402 63,910 136,988 73,151 63,837 136,542 72,773 63,769 136,439 72,690 63,749 137,536 72,994 64,542 137,408 73,249 64,159 137,348 73,064 64,284 137,687 73,182 64,505 137,487 72,981 64,506 137,739 73,071 64,667 137,628 73,043 64,435 137,625 73,195 64,430 44,007 44,116 44,235 44,129 44,245 44,093 44,005 44,401 44,587 44,415 44,552 44,542 44,371 44,739 44,620 34,153 34,153 34,278 34,479 34,322 34,264 34,189 34,525 34,620 34,569 34,685 34,443 34,600 34,612 34,655 3,715 4,213 4,308 4,356 4,343 4,329 4,273 4,643 4,807 4,696 4,840 4,592 4,499 4,649 4,449 3,123 3,221 3,058 3,153 3,112 3,017 Characteristic Employed, 16 years and over.. Married men, spouse Married women, spouse Persons at work part time1 All industries: Part time for economic Slack work or business 2,396 2,788 2,811 2,814 2,888 2,855 2,893 3,027 3,152 1,006 1,124 1,153 1,177 1,133 1,159 1,110 1,297 1,275 1,192 1,266 1,265 1,257 1,304 1,186 18,790 18,843 19,047 18,928 18,685 18,727 18,555 19,314 18,421 18,888 18,886 19,083 19,548 19,027 19,564 3,627 4,119 4,185 4,266 4,274 4,272 4,219 4,496 4,675 4,587 4,728 4,478 4,390 4,566 4,380 2,340 2,726 2,806 2,755 2,857 2,816 2,854 2,947 3,062 3,048 3,140 3,003 3,074 3,079 2,963 997 1,114 1,143 1,172 1,122 1,158 1,097 1,267 1,257 1,178 1,258 1,234 1,237 1,276 1,179 18,503 18,664 19,184 18,610 19,142 Could only find part-time Part time for noneconomic Nonagricultural industries: Part time for economic Slack work or business Could only find part-time Part time for noneconomic reasons.............................. 18,415 18,487 18,668 18,555 18,347 18,361 18,197 18,984 18,134 18,529 1 Excludes persons "with a job but not at work" during the survey period for such reasons as vacation, illness, or industrial disputes. No t e : Beginning in January 2003, data reflect revised population controls used in the household survey. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 69 Current Labor Statistics: 6. Labor Force Data Selected unemployment indicators, monthly data seasonally adjusted [Unemployment rates] Annual average 2002 S elected categories 2001 2002 2003 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. C h a r a c t e r is t ic Total, 16 years and older............................ Both sexes, 16 to 19 years..................... Men, 20 years and older.......................... Women, 20 years and older................... White, total1............................................. Both sexes, 16 to 19 years................ Men, 16 to 19 years......................... Women, 16 to 19 years.................. Men, 20 years and older.................... Women, 20 years and older............. Black or African American, total1........... Both sexes, 16 to 19 years................ Men, 16 to 19 years......................... Women, 16 to 19 years................... Men, 20 years and older.................... Women, 20 years and older.............. 4.7 14.7 4.2 4.1 5.8 16.5 5.3 5.1 5.8 16.9 5.3 5.0 5.7 16.2 5.3 5.0 5.8 15.1 5.4 5.2 5.9 16.8 5.6 5.0 6.0 16.4 5.6 5.2 5.7 16.8 5.4 4.7 5.8 17.1 5.3 5.0 5.8 17.7 5.3 5.0 6.0 18.0 5.6 5.1 6.1 18.5 5.9 5.1 6.4 19.3 6.1 5.2 6.2 18.4 5.9 5.2 6.1 16.6 5.8 5.2 4.2 12.7 13.9 11.4 3.7 3.6 5.1 14.5 15.9 13.1 4.7 4.4 5.1 14.8 17.1 12.4 4.8 4.4 5.1 14.2 15.6 12.7 4.8 4.4 5.1 13.9 14.7 13.1 4.8 4.4 5.2 14.5 15.8 13.0 5.0 4.2 5.1 13.8 14.9 12.7 4.9 4.4 5.1 15.2 16.2 14.2 4.9 4.1 5.0 15.5 17.3 13.7 4.6 4.2 5.1 15.6 18.0 13.1 4.7 4.4 5.2 15.4 17.7 13.2 5.0 4.3 5.4 15.3 17.0 13.7 5.2 4.6 5.5 16.5 17.8 15.2 5.4 4.4 5.5 15.8 18.2 13.4 5.4 4.4 5.4 15.0 16.0 14.0 5.3 4.4 8.6 29.0 30.4 27.5 8.0 7.0 10.2 29.8 31.3 28.3 9.5 8.8 9.9 30.1 31.3 28.9 9.1 8.5 9.8 28.0 34.4 21.5 9.4 8.1 9.9 23.9 24.9 22.7 9.9 8.5 10.8 30.5 30.0 31.0 10.6 9.0 11.2 33.2 34.5 32.1 10.5 9.7 10.3 30.4 33.2 28.0 10.3 8.4 10.5 30.2 38.1 22.2 10.1 9.0 10.2 33.4 45.2 23.1 9.3 8.7 10.9 33.1 37.7 29.3 10.4 9.2 10.8 37.0 43.1 32.0 11.2 8.0 11.8 39.3 36.5 41.7 11.3 9.7 11.1 36.0 37.7 34.5 10.2 9.7 10.9 30.0 27.4 32.4 10.4 9.7 Hispanic or Latino ethnicity.................... 6.6 7.5 7.6 7.5 7.8 7.8 7.9 7.8 7.7 7.5 7.5 8.2 8.4 8.2 Married men, spouse present................ Married women, spouse present........... Full-time workers...................................... Part-time workers..................................... 7.8 2.7 3.1 4.7 5.1 3.6 3.7 5.9 5.2 3.5 3.6 5.8 5.4 3.6 3.6 5.8 5.3 3.6 3.8 5.9 5.2 3.6 3.8 6.1 5.1 3.7 3.8 6.1 5.3 3.5 3.3 5.8 5.4 3.6 3.6 5.9 5.5 3.8 3.7 5.9 5.5 3.7 3.6 6.1 5.4 3.9 3.7 6.3 5.6 4.4 3.9 6.5 5.9 3.9 3.9 6.3 5.5 3.8 3.8 6.2 5.3 E d u c a t io n a l a t t a i n m e n t 2 Less than a high school diploma................. 7.2 8.4 8.5 7.9 8.7 9.0 9.0 8.5 8.8 8.5 8.2 9.2 9.7 8.7 9.4 High school graduates, no college3............ Some college or associate degree............. 4.2 3.3 5.3 4.5 5.2 4.3 5.0 4.6 4.9 4.7 5.3 4.8 5.3 5.0 5.1 4.8 5.4 4.7 5.5 4.8 5.7 4.7 5.5 4.8 5.8 4.9 5.4 5.0 5.4 4.7 Bachelor's degree and higher4.................... 2.3 2.9 2.8 2.9 3.0 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.1 1 Beginning in 2003, persons who selected this race group only; persons who 3 |nc|u(Jes hjgh sch0Q| dip|Qma Qr equiva)ent selected more than one race group are not included. Prior to 2003, persons who reported more than one race were included in the group they identified as the main race. 4 2 Data refer to persons 25 years and older. N0TE: Be9innin9 *n January 2003, data reflect revised population controls used in the household survey. 7. 'nC'UdeS perS° nS with bachelor's’ master's - Professional, and doctoral degrees. D u ra tio n o f u n e m p lo y m e n t, m o n th ly d a t a s e a s o n a lly a d ju s te d [Numbers in thousands] W eeks of unem ploym ent Annual a verage 2001 Less than 5 weeks........................... 5 to 14 weeks.............................. 2,853 2,196 15 weeks and over........................... 15 to 26 weeks.............................. 27 weeks and over....................... 1,752 951 801 Mean duration, in weeks................. Median duration, in weeks.............. 13.1 6.8 2002 2,893 2,580 2,904 2002 Aug. Sept. 2,895 2,505 1,535 2,891 1,361 1,530 16.6 9.1 16.3 8.7 1,369 2003 Oct. Nov. Dec. 2,782 2,797 2,547 1,359 1,660 2,515 3,099 1,374 1,724 2,912 2,532 2,860 2,558 3,019 17.8 9.5 17.6 9.6 3,143 1,317 1,826 17.9 9.4 3,296 1,392 1,904 70 Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July 2,772 2,749 2,565 3,155 1,281 1,874 2,780 2,473 3,104 2,814 2,577 3,140 1,457 2,630 3,056 2,605 3,009 2,936 3,572 3,009 2,699 1,536 2,036 1,633 1,959 2,595 3,572 1,637 1,935 19.8 19.3 10.0 19.0 9.6 1,683 18.4 18.4 9.6 9.8 NOTE: Beginning in January 2003, data reflect revised population controls used in the household survey. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Jan. 18.6 9.4 1,316 1,788 3,294 1,392 1,903 3,250 1,321 18.0 9.6 19.6 10.2 19.2 10.1 1,930 12.3 3,592 Aug. 2,727 8. Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment, monthly data seasonally adjusted [Numbers in thousands] Reason for Job losers1.......................................... On temporary layoff....................... Not on temporary layoff................. Job leavers......................................... New entrants...................................... 2002 2001 Aug. 4,607 1,124 3,483 866 2,368 536 3,476 1,067 2,409 835 2,031 459 2003 2002 Annual average unem ploym ent 4,607 1,158 3,449 844 2,326 587 Sept. 4,608 1,044 3,565 808 2,321 542 Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. 4,828 1,098 3,729 850 2,386 494 4,833 1,069 3,764 834 2,394 586 4,863 1,110 3,753 862 2,462 534 4,583 1,080 3,503 825 2,331 616 Feb. Mar. Apr. May 4,756 1,142 3,614 772 2,395 579 4,613 1,157 3,456 794 4,765 1,101 3,664 829 2,558 642 5,074 1,226 3,848 772 2,499 634 2,391 626 June 5,010 1,199 3,811 893 2,687 648 July Aug. 4,951 1,198 3,753 792 2,529 670 4,942 1,080 3,852 847 2,540 628 P e r c e n t o f u n e m p lo y e d Job losers1......................................... On temporary layoff...................... Not on temporary layoff................. Job leavers.......................................... New entrants...................................... 51.1 55.0 55.1 55.7 56.4 55.9 55.8 54.9 55.9 54.8 54.2 56.5 54.2 55.4 55.6 15.7 35.4 12.3 29.9 6.8 13.4 41.6 10.3 28.3 6.4 13.8 41.2 10.1 27.8 7.0 12.6 42.1 9.8 28.0 6.5 12.8 43.6 9.9 27.9 5.8 12.4 43.5 9.6 27.7 6.8 12.7 43.0 9.9 28.2 6.1 12.9 41.9 9.9 27.9 7.4 13.4 42.5 9.1 28.2 6.8 13.7 41.0 9.4 28.4 7.4 12.5 41.7 9.4 29.1 7.3 13.7 42.9 8.6 27.8 7.1 13.0 41.3 9.7 29.1 7.0 13.4 42.0 8.9 28.3 7.5 12.1 43.4 8.8 28.6 7.1 2.4 3.2 3.2 3.2 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.1 3.3 3.2 3.3 3.5 3.4 3.4 3.4 .6 1.4 .6 1.6 .4 .6 1.6 .4 .5 1.6 .4 .6 .6 1.6 1.6 .3 ______ ± .6 1.7 .4 .6 1.6 .4 .5 1.6 .4 .5 1.6 .4 .6 1.7 .4 .5 1.7 .4 .6 1.8 .4 .5 1.7 .5 .5 1.7 .4 P e r c e n t o f c iv ilia n la b o r fo r c e Job losers1......................................... Reentrants......................................... New entrants...................................... .3 1 Includes persons who completed temporary jobs. NOTE: Beginning In January 2003, data reflect revised population controls used in the household survey. 9. Unemployment rates by sex and age, monthly data seasonally adjusted [Civilian workers] S ex and age 2001 2002 2003 2002 Annual average Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. 5.7 11.8 16.8 18.3 15.9 9.3 4.6 4.7 4.1 5.8 11.9 17.1 17.9 15.9 9.3 4.7 4.9 3.8 5.8 11.7 17.7 16.7 17.7 8.9 4.7 5.0 3.8 6.0 12.7 18.0 18.7 17.8 10.1 4.9 4.9 4.2 6.1 13.1 18.5 18.5 19.0 10.5 4.9 5.0 4.5 6.4 13.5 19.3 21.6 17.9 10.7 5.1 5.3 4.6 6.2 13.0 18.4 20.8 17.1 10.3 5.0 5.1 4.3 6.1 12.3 16.6 18.7 15.9 10.3 5.0 5.1 4.1 4.7 10.6 14.7 17.2 13.1 8.3 3,7 3.8 3.0 5.8 12.0 16.5 18.8 15.1 9.7 4.6 4.8 3.8 5.8 12.1 16.9 19.3 16.2 9.6 4.6 4.7 4.0 5.7 11.9 16.2 19.4 14.0 9.6 4.6 4.7 3.9 5.8 11.8 15.1 16.2 14.3 10.1 4.7 4.9 3.9 5.9 12.2 16.8 19.4 15.3 9.8 4.8 5.1 3.7 6.0 11.9 16.4 17.6 15.5 9.7 4.8 5.0 4.2 Men, 16 years and older................. 16 to 24 years.............................. 16 to 19 years........................... 16 to 17 years........................ 18 to 19 years........................ 20 to 24 years........................... 25 years and older...................... 4.8 11.4 16.0 19.1 14.0 9.0 3.6 3.7 3.2 5.9 12.8 18.1 21.1 16.4 10.2 4.7 4.8 4.1 6.0 13.3 19.3 23.1 18.1 10.3 4.7 4.8 4.1 5.9 13.1 18.3 21.5 16.3 10.5 4.6 4.7 4.1 5.9 12.3 16.0 17.2 15.2 10.4 4.8 4.9 4.0 6.2 12.8 18.0 21.2 16.1 10.2 5.1 5.3 4.0 6.2 12.6 17.5 18.5 16.7 10.2 5.0 5.2 4.4 6.0 12.4 18.2 19.3 17.6 9.7 4.9 5.0 4.4 6.0 12.5 19.5 19.1 19.3 9.2 4.9 5.0 4.2 6.0 12.4 20.8 18.0 21.5 8.7 4.9 5.0 4.3 6.3 13.8 20.6 21.4 20.1 10.7 5.1 5.2 4.6 6.5 14.3 20.8 21.5 20.9 11.4 5.2 5.3 4.8 6.8 14.3 20.1 23.8 17.7 11.7 5.5 5.5 5.5 6.6 14.5 20.9 22.8 19.5 11.7 5.2 5.3 4.6 6.4 12.7 16.9 20.7 15.3 10.8 5.3 5.5 4.4 Women, 16 years and older........... 16 to 24 years.............................. 4.7 9.6 13.4 15.2 12.2 7.5 3.7 3.9 5.6 11.1 14.9 16.6 13.8 9.1 4.6 4.8 5.5 10.7 14.4 15.5 14.1 8.8 4.5 4.6 5.5 10.5 14.0 17.4 11.5 8.7 4.5 4.7 5.7 11.3 14.1 15.2 13.3 9.8 4.6 4.8 5.6 11.5 15.6 17.4 14.4 9.4 4.5 4.8 5.8 11.3 15.2 16.6 14.2 9.3 4.6 4.8 5.3 11.1 15.5 17.3 14.1 8.8 4.2 4.4 5.6 11.3 14.8 16.8 12.3 9.5 4.5 4.8 5.5 11.0 14.6 15.5 13.7 9.1 4.6 4.9 5.6 11.5 15.5 16.2 15.5 9.3 4.7 4.7 5.7 11.8 16.2 15.8 17.1 9.4 4.6 4.7 5.9 12.5 18.5 19.5 18.0 9.5 4.7 5.0 5.7 11.3 16.0 18.9 14.5 8.9 4.7 4.9 5.8 12.0 16.4 16.7 16.6 9.8 4.6 4.7 2.7 3.6 4.3 3.6 3.5 3.2 3.8 4.1 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.6 3.7 4.2 4.5 Total, 16 years and older.................. 16 to 24 years................................. 16 to 19 years............................. 16 to 17 years.......................... 18 to 19 years.......................... 55 years and older.................. 16 to 17 years....................... 18 to 19 years....................... 25 years and older...................... 55 years and older1............... 1 Data are not seasonally adjusted. NOTE: Beginning in January 2003, data reflect revised population controls used in the household survey. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 71 Current Labor Statistics: 10. Labor Force Data Unemployment ratesby State, seasonally adjusted State July June July 2002 2003p 2003p State July June July 2002 2003p 2003p Alabama.................. Alaska...................... Arizona..................... Arkansas.................. California.................. 6.0 8.0 6.3 5.4 6.7 5.7 7.9 5.9 5.6 6.8 5.7 7.9 6.1 5.5 6.7 Missouri Montana................................................... Nebraska....................................................... Nevada.......................................................... New Hampshire........................................... 5.7 4.6 3.6 55 47 Colorado.................. Connecticut.............. Delaware.................. District of Columbia. Florida....................... 5.7 4.4 4.3 6.4 5.5 5.8 4.9 3.8 6.7 5.4 5.7 5.2 4.1 6.5 5.4 New Jersey................................................... New Mexico.............................................. New York....................................................... North Carolina...................................... North Dakota................................................ 6.0 56 62 6*8 4.1 Georgia.................... Hawaii....................... Idaho......................... Illinois........................ Indiana..................... 5.2 4.1 5.8 6.6 5.1 4.9 4.1 5.2 6.4 4.7 5.0 4.0 5.6 6.5 5.4 O hio.............................................................. Oklahoma...................................................... Oregon........................................................... Pennsylvania................................................ Rhode Island................................................. Iowa........................... Kansas..................... Kentucky................... Louisiana.................. Maine......................... 4.1 5.3 5.5 6.1 4.4 4.2 5.0 5.9 6.8 4.5 4.6 5.1 6.1 7.4 4.9 M aryland................... Massachusetts......... Michigan................... Minnesota................. Mississippi................ 4.3 5.4 6.2 4.4 6.8 4.3 5.6 7.2 4.5 7.1 4.6 5.4 7.4 4.6 7.3 5.7 4.7 3.9 5.6 4.7 3.9 fi 9 4^ 5.8 fi q 6.1 fi fi 6J fi fi 3.4 3.6 5.7 4.5 7.4 5.6 4.9 6.3 5.8 8.5 5.7 5.7 6.3 5.6 8.2 5.6 5.6 South Carolina.............................................. South Dakota................................................ Tennessee.................................................... Texas............................................................. Utah................................................................ 5.8 3.0 5.1 6.4 6.1 6.6 3.1 5.3 6.5 5.2 7.0 3.3 5.0 6.6 5.2 Vermont................................................... Virginia........................................................... Washington................................................. West Virginia................................................. W isconsin..................................................... W yoming........................................................ 3.8 4.9 7.3 6.3 5.4 4.1 4.1 3.8 7.8 6.3 5.6 4.2 4.1 4.0 7.5 6.8 5.6 4.1 p = preliminary 11. Employment of workers on nonfarm payrolls by State, seasonally adjusted [In thousands] State Alabama................... Alaska....................... Arizona..................... Arkansas.................. California.................. July June July 2002 2003p 2003p 2,101,280 2,152,730 2,155,212 322,934 344,860 344,981 2,688,356 2,666,429 2,673,807 1,288,777 1,303,896 1,303,639 17,415,671 17,651,753 17,661,134 State July June July 2002 2003p 2003p Missouri.......................................... Montana......................................... Nebraska......................................... Nevada........................................... New Hampshire............................. 2 967 698 463 249 957,925 1 127 346 706 530 2 98fi fi4Q 477 41 fi 983,575 1 11 fi fifiR 714 1fi.fi 984,025 477 fi7Q Colorado.................. Connecticut.............. Delaware.................. District of Columbia. Florida....................... 2,438,966 2,469,704 1,774,532 17,811,359 422,361 419,367 303,185 310,147 8,105,076 8,062,938 2,478,187 New Jersey..................................... 1,786,536 New Mexico................................... 419,400 New York........................................ 309,704 North Carolina............................... 8,073,568 North Dakota................................... 4,366,094 880 080 9 380 551 4,166,904 344,907 4,415,026 900 878 9 fi77 498 4,441,798 4,147,549 348,298 4,183,361 350,651 Georgia.................... Hawaii....................... Idaho......................... Illinois........................ Indiana..................... 4,298,322 581,112 685,049 6,366,256 3,189,546 4,387,108 605,342 690,166 6,404,476 3,204,166 4,385,696 608,991 688,936 6,433,749 3,225,356 fi 824 fi27 fi RQO 1Q1 Oklahoma....................................... Oregon............................................ Pennsylvania................................. Rhode Island.................................. 1,681,102 1,833,477 6,290 232 557,604 1,723,904 1,852,381 6 17fi 79fi 1,715,174 1,848,687 574,396 573,774 Iowa........................... Kansas..................... Kentucky................... Louisiana.................. Maine........................ 1,669,830 1,418,230 1,964,180 2,000,839 687,316 1,642,070 1,474,193 1,986,813 2,044,678 690,814 1,644,294 1,478,884 1,998,226 2,040,891 692,757 South Carolina............................... 1,967,803 2,030,911 2,034,109 South Dakota................................. 421,893 421,697 422,867 Tennessee...................................... 2,930,008 2,910,665 2,902,709 Texas............................................... 10,755,795 10,994,633 11,011,013 Utah.................................................. 1,179,512 1,206,839 1,205,935 Maryland................... Massachusetts......... Michigan................... Minnesota................. Mississippi................ 2,900,001 3,494,261 4,988,433 2,923,599 1,299,241 2,923,349 3,448,648 5,130,391 2,926,862 1,330,833 2,934,161 3,448,801 5,133,605 2,940,540 1,336,318 Vermont........................................... Virginia............................................ Washington..................................... West Virginia................................... W isconsin....................................... W yoming......................................... 349,203 3,736,590 3,107,460 802,210 3,023,365 269,783 353,247 3,789,955 3,103,380 802,832 3,101,062 276,357 p = preliminary. NOTE: Some data in this table may differ from data published elsewhere because of the continual updating of the data base. 72 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2003 354,424 3,799,478 3,113,305 808,832 3,099,576 276,016 12. Employment of workers on nonfarm payrolls by industry, monthly data seasonally adjusted [In thousands] 2003 2002 Annual average Industry TOTAL NONFARM............... TOTAL PRIVATE...................... GOODS-PRODUCING................... Natural resources and m ining......................................... Logging................................... Mining......................................... Oil amd gas extraction............ Minina, exceot oil and aas1..... Coal minina............................ Support activities for mining.... Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. 130,408 130,409 130,198 130,356 130,235 130,084 130,062 129,986 108.864 22,435 108.869 22,409 108.642 22,323 108.780 22,288 108.647 22,191 108.537 22,159 108.536 22,119 108.502 22,098 573 67.5 505.7 121.4 572 66.7 505.7 121.5 573 67.6 505.0 122.0 572 67.9 503.6 121.6 568 67.1 500.5 122.1 569 66.6 502.1 121.8 565 64.6 500.4 122.9 564 64.3 499.8 124.4 210.7 74.3 173.6 209.7 73.6 174.5 209.3 73.8 173.7 208.1 73.3 173.9 206.9 72.2 171.5 206.3 72.3 174.0 206.9 72.3 170.6 207.5 72.7 167.9 2001 2002 Aug. Sept. 131826 130,376 130,224 130,289 110707 23873 108.886 22,619 108.745 22,527 108.763 22,497 606 73.5 532.5 123.7 581 69.1 511.9 122.5 575 67.3 508.1 122.0 218.7 212.1 74.9 177.2 210.6 74.4 175.5 74.3 190.1 Oct. Apr. May June Julyp Aug.p 129,903 129,870 129,805 108.427 22,061 108.397 21,982 108.349 21,972 566 64.8 501.4 125.2 569 65.7 502.8 125.7 566 64.6 501.5 127.0 564 64.0 500.7 124.8 208.2 72.6 168.0 208.9 73.2 168.2 208.4 73.2 166.1 209.0 72.8 166.9 C onstruction............................... 6,826 6,732 6,719 6,728 6,720 6,745 6,731 6,738 6,700 6,720 6,760 6,786 6,800 6,804 6,823 Construction of buildinas........ Heaw and civil enaineerina.... Speciality trade contractors.... Manufacturing............................ 1.588.9 953.0 4283.9 16,441 1.583.9 929.9 4217.9 15,306 1.585.3 921.0 4212.9 15,233 1.587.9 919.3 4220.7 15,196 1.588.0 918.1 4214.2 15,143 1.602.9 915.2 4226.4 15,091 1.595.3 915.3 4220.7 15,020 1.597.7 916.8 4223.8 14,982 1.594.4 912.5 4193.2 14,922 1.605.6 895.0 4219.5 14,874 1,615.8 898.4 4245.5 14,795 1.615.0 902.8 4267.8 14,746 1.609.7 905.8 4284.1 14,692 1.608.1 908.6 4287.6 14,612 1.608.9 915.1 4299 14,585 Production workers.............. Durable g oods......................... 11.677 10,335 10.799 9,517 10.740 9,472 10.715 9,435 10.685 9,400 10.648 9,362 10.595 9,316 10.564 9,282 10.516 9,236 10,447 9,203 10.379 9,147 10.342 9,114 10.299 9,081 10.237 9,022 10.224 9,014 Production workers.............. Wood products......................... Nonmetallic mineral products Primary metals......................... Fabricated metal products...... Machinery................................ Computer and electronic nrnHi irts1 ComDuter and DeriDheral equipment............................ Communications equipment.. Semiconductors and electronic components........ Electronic instruments.......... Electrical equipment and 7.163 574.1 544.5 570.9 1.676.4 1.368.3 6,551 556.8 519.0 510.9 1.547.8 1.237.4 6.517 556.0 518.1 509.1 1.542.3 1.228.7 6.492 554.5 517.9 507.5 1.537.8 1.223.8 6.474 554.2 516.1 504.4 1.532.0 1.219.6 6.447 552.3 513.6 503.3 1.523.7 1.216.1 6.417 548.1 510.8 499.7 1.516.0 1.212.4 6.392 549.2 507.9 500.1 1.508.0 1.206.5 6.355 548.5 505.9 496.5 1.497.5 1.201.6 6.314 544.4 506.7 494.7 1.495.3 1.194.8 6.267 546.0 504.8 491.1 1.489.4 1.187.4 6.244 544.9 505.1 486.4 1.482.3 1.181.2 6.221 541.0 505.0 482.0 1.470.7 1.175.8 6.188 541.5 501.7 475.4 1.467.4 1.170.9 6.204 536.9 501.1 476.6 1.468.7 1.171.9 1.748.8 1.521.3 1.503.5 1.492.9 1.483.9 1.477.0 1.462.2 1.448.5 1.438.2 1.432.1 1,423.6 1.413.0 1.407.7 1.394.3 1.394.0 286.2 233.9 249.8 190.9 243.9 187.1 243.3 186.0 242.0 185.5 241.8 182.0 241.0 180.1 234.4 177.6 230.9 177.8 229.8 176.5 230.5 175.5 226.7 174.4 226.5 173.3 219.7 172.0 222.4 171.0 645.4 475.1 531.4 450.6 525.5 447.2 519.2 445.8 513.9 444.1 507.6 442.5 503.7 441.3 498.8 441.4 496.0 438.7 494.1 436.5 492.0 433.5 487.7 431.5 485.1 429.9 482.7 427.8 479.7 429.0 556.9 1,937.9 498.9 1,828.5 494.9 1,824.0 492.0 1,818.0 489.1 ¡,815.5 486.8 1,808.7 485.2 1,804.7 482.4 1,806.5 479.8 1,800.7 477.5 1,792.5 474.8 1,771.9 469.3 1,777.6 467.7 1,774.3 466.1 1,757.3 461.6 1,764.8 642.4 714.5 604.6 691.9 604.3 691.4 599.8 690.9 596.9 688.3 594.2 691.1 589.1 687.9 587.0 686.0 582.9 684.5 582.0 683.0 576.4 682.0 576.4 677.8 574.1 676.6 576.2 671.4 572.3 670.8 Nondurable goods................... Production workers.............. 6,107 4,514 5,789 4,249 5,761 4,223 5,761 4,223 5,743 4,211 5,729 4,201 5,704 4,178 5,700 4,172 5,686 4,161 5,671 4,133 5,648 4,112 5,632 4,098 5,611 4,078 5,590 4,058 5,571 4,044 Food manufacturing................ Beverages and tobacco products................................. Textile mills.............................. Textile product mills................ 1,551.2 1,525.1 1,514.5 1,518.0 1,520.0 1,520.0 1,518.5 1,517.1 1,514.7 1,513.3 1,512.3 1,512.4 1,517.4 1,511.9 1,520.9 209.0 332.9 205.7 426.5 58.0 577.6 205.4 293.2 196.2 357.6 49.9 549.8 205.0 291.3 195.6 354.2 48.9 548.9 205.3 289.6 195.2 352.0 48.7 547.7 203.1 287.5 195.4 346.7 48.6 545.6 200.2 286.8 194.9 343.2 47.7 544.6 200.2 284.9 193.7 337.2 47.3 541.5 199.0 285.2 191.7 331.8 46.7 539.7 198.2 283.7 192.6 325.9 46.0 538.5 196.1 281.6 192.6 322.1 45.8 535.1 194.6 277.8 190.6 318.4 44.8 534.1 195.4 272.7 188.7 313.2 44.4 531.9 194.5 270.1 186.4 307.8 43.3 530.6 196.1 262.8 185.6 297.5 43.5 528.0 194.5 259.5 178.5 297.7 43.0 526.2 768.4 121.1 959.0 709.9 119.1 929.5 704.2 118.6 926.7 702.4 119.2 930.5 701.3 118.7 925.1 697.5 119.4 924.7 689.8 119.7 925.8 694.5 120.4 926.0 694.0 120.4 924.2 696.4 120.3 922.5 694.8 119.2 921.7 695.3 119.3 920.6 694.1 118.4 916.5 693.4 118.1 918.1 689.8 117.1 915.5 Transportation equipment...... Furniture and related products................................. Miscellaneous manufacturing Leather and allied products.... Paper and paper products...... Printing and related support activities................................. Petroleum and coal products.. Chemicals................................ Plastics and rubber products.. 897.4 853.5 853.3 852.2 851.0 850.1 845.4 848.0 847.4 845.1 839.2 837.7 831.7 834.9 828.6 SERVICE-PROVIDING................. 107,952 107,757 107,697 107,792 107,973 108,000 107,875 108,068 108,044 107,925 107,943 107,888 107,842 107,888 107,833 PRIVATE SERVICEPROVIDING............................. 86,834 86,267 86,218 86,266 86,429 86,460 86,319 86,492 86,456 86,378 86,417 86,404 86,366 86,415 86,377 25,983 5,772.7 3130.4 2031.3 25,493 5,641.0 3007.2 2015.1 25,458 5,624.4 2,991.1 2015.7 25,430 5,625.2 2,995.7 2013.3 25,438 5,618.9 2,990.8 2010.1 25,406 5,604.9 2,984.3 2004.3 25,378 5,603.9 2,978.7 2009.6 25,376 5,596.0 2,967.9 2011.5 25,346 5,596.2 2,967.0 2010.7 25,338 5,594.0 2,961.2 2013.6 25,321 5,590.8 2,957.7 2013.3 25,282 5,582.0 2,952.2 2009.9 25,236 5,570.6 2,947.5 2004.1 25,192 5,556.6 2,938.4 2002.2 25,201 5,550.8 2,934.7 1998.4 619.8 619.C 616.C 619.8 14.999.6 14.979.0 14,964.2 14.945.1 14.959.1 Trade, transportation, Wholesale trade...................... Nondurable goods.................. Electronic markets and Retail trade............................... Motor vehicles and parts Automobile dealers............... Furniture and home furnishings stores.................. Electronics and appliance stores..................................... 617.7 611.1 618.8 617.6 616.2 618.0 616.3 615.6 616.6 618.5 619.2 15.238.6 15.047.2 15.033.3 15.016.0 15.025.2 15.014.0 15.005.6 15.009.2 14.987.3 14.994.7 1,854.6 1,225.1 1,879.2 1,250.4 1,883.2 1,252.4 1,882.6 1,253.0 1,886.8 1,254.9 1,883.8 1,255.0 1,878.9 1,249.6 1,876.8 1,245.5 1,874.9 1,242.1 1,875.5 1,241.5 1,875.4 1,242.0 1,879.2 1,244.3 1,877.9 1,246.0 1,883.7 1,249.1 1,881.7 1,248.8 541.2 539.9 541.8 543.5 546.8 548.7 548.4 549.9 552.0 547.6 549.2 545.4 546.5 546.1 542.2 554.5 528.8 525.0 524.6 526.4 529.3 529.8 531.6 526.9 524.8 525.2 523.8 522.9 520.0 519.8 See notes at end of table. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 73 Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data 12. Continued—Employment of workers on nonfarm payrolls by industry, monthly data seasonally adjusted [In thousands] _____ Industry Building material and garden supply stores.......................... Food and beverage stores..... Health and personal care stores..................................... Gasoline stations..................... Clothing and clothing accessories s to re s............... Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores......... General merchandise store sl. Department stores................. Miscellaneous store retailers.. Nonstore retailers..................... Transportation and w arehousing........................... Air transportation..................... Rail transportation................... Water transportation............... Truck transportation................. Transit and ground passenger transportation......................... Pipeline transportation............. Scenic and sightseeing transportation........................ Support activities for transportation........................ Couriers and messengers....... Warehousing and storage U tilitie s......................................... Annual average 2002 2003 2001 2002 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July9 1,151.8 2,950.5 1,179.1 2,871.6 1,185.2 2,857.1 1,182.2 2,851.7 1,184.2 2,852.5 1,184.2 2,842.5 1,183.9 2,833.5 1,190.6 2,827.0 1,183.6 2,820.2 1,181.8 2,822.9 1,189.0 2,822.0 1,188.5 2,822.5 1,194.2 2,812.8 1,193.3 2,798.6 1,203.1 2,797.3 951.5 925.3 946.6 903.6 947.7 902.2 949.7 903.6 949.2 903.6 949.5 903.7 952.5 904.2 956.8 905.2 960.1 905.0 962.6 907.1 966.2 910.9 965.7 908.8 967.9 908.6 967.8 902.3 965.0 907.3 1,321.1 1,307.8 1,311.7 1,304.4 1,307.4 1,304.5 1,308.5 1,291.2 1,279.7 1,282.8 1,288.3 1,280.7 1,277.5 1,274.7 1,276.9 679.2 2,842.2 1,768.3 993.3 473.5 660.1 2,820.7 1,709.8 962.5 447.3 662.7 2,809.0 1,695.0 961.0 446.7 657.8 2,809.2 1,694.5 960.8 445.9 655.3 2,809.1 1,696.6 960.8 443.1 650.1 2,817.5 1,712.0 957.2 443.0 637.8 2,827.6 1,727.5 954.6 445.9 653.5 2,834.2 1,720.9 952.4 440.0 652.6 2,838.8 1,718.6 949.1 444.4 650.8 2,846.4 1,710.6 949.8 442.6 646.3 2,835.8 1,695.5 948.6 442.7 645.2 2,833.1 1,690.3 944.1 442.0 642.0 2,831.0 1,689.9 941.8 440.6 641.0 2,831.7 1,683.9 939.7 446.2 638.6 2,846.3 1,693.6 940.3 440.6 4,372.0 615.3 226.7 54.0 1,386.8 4,205.3 559.3 218.1 51.6 1,339.1 4,200.4 561.1 216.3 50.8 1,332.9 4,188.4 559.0 215.5 50.4 1,330.4 4,194.6 556.3 215.1 50.4 1,336.2 4,188.9 556.3 216.8 50.3 1,333.2 4,170.7 553.9 216.3 50.3 1,331.9 4,174.6 551.3 215.7 50.6 1,327.6 4,166.7 545.8 215.3 50.5 1,324.3 4,153.8 537.3 215.3 50.1 1,328.1 4,136.3 525.6 216.5 49.9 1,324.4 4,128.5 516.4 216.1 50.3 1,324.4 4,113.9 510.0 217.2 50.1 1,326.9 4,100.6 499.4 217.2 50.3 1,325.2 4,101.0 503.0 214.8 49.2 1,330.3 374.8 45.4 371.5 41.5 372.7 40.7 364.7 40.5 365.1 40.4 363.3 40.2 360.8 40.2 358.0 40.0 357.5 39.8 351.9 40.2 353.0 40.3 350.4 40.3 345.4 39.7 347.8 40.2 346.6 38.9 29.1 25.9 26.9 26.7 26.2 25.7 25.6 24.0 25.6 27.1 28.5 29.1 29.4 29.1 29.3 539.2 587.0 513.8 526.7 558.0 513.6 527.6 556.8 514.6 525.1 558.6 517.5 528.1 557.5 519.3 528.2 556.3 518.6 531.2 545.0 515.5 527.7 561.4 518.3 527.9 558.9 521.1 525.9 563.3 514.6 522.7 561.6 513.8 527.8 560.8 512.9 523.2 560.9 510.6 520.9 560.4 510.1 517.5 558.7 512.1 Aug.p 599.4 599.8 600.0 600.1 600.6 598.3 597.3 596.4 595.9 595.3 594.6 592.3 589.5 589.5 590.4 3,629 3,420 3,401 3,383 3,392 3,382 3,353 3,328 3,308 3,305 3,303 3,294 3,285 3,279 3,264 1,020.7 969.4 966.9 965.1 964.7 962.6 962.2 954.0 955.3 953.5 950.8 947.2 945.1 942.0 942.2 376.8 344.6 387.1 333.8 387.1 332.0 384.0 330.5 394.7 330.3 394.3 331.0 381.6 332.1 377.8 327.2 367.0 325.0 369.3 325.7 371.1 325.0 373.4 324.4 371.7 324.2 374.7 322.2 367.8 322.9 45.5 1,302.1 34.8 1,200.9 34.9 1,188.8 33.9 1,180.2 34.2 1,177.7 33.0 1,174.9 32.9 1,162.5 33.0 1,158.7 33.3 1,151.4 33.6 1,146.9 33.8 1,145.0 33.5 1,138.1 34.0 1,132.5 35.6 1,128.4 34.3 1,122.5 493.6 46.1 447.4 46.6 444.5 47.2 443.1 46.3 444.0 46.5 439.1 46.9 435.8 45.8 430.3 46.5 429.5 46.3 430.4 46.0 431.3 46.0 431.4 45.5 462.1 45.1 431.1 45.4 429.0 45.3 7,807 5773.1. 7,843 5,814.9 7,830 5,804.0 7,851 5,820.8 7,872 5,841.1 7,880 5,851.1 7,889 5,861.0 7,902 5,872.4 7,916 5,885.2 7,930 5,894.8 7,956 5,912.0 7,971 5,923.2 7,972 5,923.3 7,984 5,927.7 7,979 5,925.7 23.0 23.1 23.1 23.0 22.9 23.0 22.7 22.7 22.3 22.3 22.2 22.2 22.1 22.1 22.0 related activities'.................. Depository credit 2,597.7 2,682.3 2,682.3 2,696.5 2,714.0 2,722.8 2,729.1 2,734.9 2,741.9 2,752.3 2,765.8 2,781.8 2,783.5 2,790.3 2,789.8 intermediation'..................... Commercial banking............ Securities, commodity contracts, Investments.......... Insurance carriers and related activities...................... Funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles................... Real estate and rental and leasing................................ Real estate................................ Rental and leasing services.... Lessors of nonfinancial intangible assets..................... 1,701.2 1,258.4 1,738.2 1,284.7 1,739.6 1,285.3 1,741.4 1,285.7 1,745.6 1,288.8 1,748.3 1,291.2 1,751.3 1,292.8 1,755.1 1,296.1 1,757.1 1,297.5 1,762.3 1,300.4 1,764.4 1,300.6 1,767.9 1,302.4 1,768.5 1,302.3 1,770.4 1,302.5 1,771.7 1 304 1 830.5 800.8 795.7 797.6 796.9 798.2 799.4 802.3 803.1 799.3 798.8 796.9 796.7 796.8 794.8 2,233.7 2,223.1 2,218.5 2,219.0 2,222.2 2,222.7 2,225.7 2,228.5 2,233.9 2,236.8 2,241.8 2,239.4 2,238.9 2,236.7 2,236.2 88.3 85.6 84.4 84.7 85.1 84.4 84.1 84.0 84.0 84.1 83.4 82.9 82.1 81.8 82.9 2,034.5 1,339.5 666.3 2,027.8 1,347.7 652.3 2,026.0 1,342.3 655.7 2,030.4 1,350.7 652.1 2,031.1 1,354.4 648.9 2,029.2 2,028.3 1,355.7 645.8 2,029.2 1,353.8 648.7 2,030.6 1,356.9 646.7 2,034.7 1,357.3 644.9 1,359.9 647.0 2,044.2 1,366.4 649.4 2,047.8 1,367.3 651.4 2,048.6 1,365.2 654.2 2,055.9 1,371.1 655.4 2,053.6 1,370.5 653.6 28.7 27.8 28.0 27.6 27.8 27.0 26.8 26.7 27.0 27.8 28.4 29.2 29.2 29.4 29.5 16,476 16,010 16,008 16,008 16,036 16,014 15,972 16,015 16,043 15,980 15,989 16,002 16,006 16,081 16,058 6,902.2 1,091.3 6,715.0 1,111.8 6,704.8 1,111.0 6,714.8 1,116.2 6,738.3 1,121.7 6,731.9 1,120.6 6,716.9 1,120.2 6,745.3 1,119.8 6,790.5 1,124.1 6,758.4 1,125.7 6,742.2 1,127.5 6,698.1 1,125.2 6,674.9 1,125.7 6,654.6 1,124.0 6,652.1 1,121.2 872.2 867.1 873.1 876.4 882.7 884.3 872.6 910.6 941.2 913.5 899.3 866.0 848.9 848.4 850.3 1,274.7 1,251.1 1,248.5 1,248.8 1,251.3 1,252.1 1,252.5 1,238.6 1,247.9 1,246.0 1,242.9 1,241.4 1,236.0 1,240.0 1,238.5 Inform ation................................. Publishing industries, except Internet.................................... Motion picture and sound recording Industries............... Broadcasting, except Internet.. Internet publishing and broadcasting........................... Telecommunications............... ISPs, search portals, and data processing...................... Other information services..... Financial a c tivitie s...................... Finance and insurance.............. Monetary authorities— central bank............................ Credit intermediation and Professional and business services........................................ Professional and technical services'.................................... Legal services.............. .......... Accounting and bookkeeping services................................. Architectural and engineering services................................ See notes at end of table. 74 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2003 12. Continued—Employment of workers on nonfarm payrolls by industry, monthly data seasonally adjusted [In thousands] Industry Computer systems design and related services............ Management and technical consulting services.............. Management of companies and enterprises........................ Administrative and waste services..................................... 2003 2002 Annual average 2001 2002 Aug. Sept Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July** Augp 1, 297.8 1, 162.7 1, 154.5 1, 150.7 1, 153.4 1, 150.1 1, 142.7 1, 142.8 1, 144.3 1, 144.5 1, 151.9 1, 146.6 1, 142.0 1, 131.6 1, 123.6 746.2 731.8 735.8 736.1 734.0 733.4 739.8 734.8 736.2 735.5 732.9 734.0 731.8 731.3 735.9 1, 779.0 1, 711.1 1, 704.6 1, 706.0 1, 703.9 1, 699.0 1 , 694.2 1, 696.8 1, 697.1 1, 697.9 1, 697.0 1, 696.0 1, 690.8 1, 698.5 1, 691.1 7 , 794.9 7 , 583.8 7 , 598.2 7 , 587.3 7 , 594.0 7 , 583.0 7 , 561.0 7 , 572.9 7 , 555.7 7 , 523.3 7 , 549.4 7 , 608.3 7 , 639.8 7 , 733.5 7 , 714.5 7 . 477.6 3 . 437.1 2 . 337.7 779.7 7 . 266.8 3 . 248.8 2 , 185.7 757.0 7 . 281.6 3 . 268.8 2 . 219.1 743.0 7 . 273.6 3 . 255.2 2 . 202.1 742.8 7 . 279.2 3 .260.8 2 . 192.6 749.1 7 . 271.1 3 . 256.8 2 . 174.4 755.8 7 . 244.9 3 . 259.2 2 . 159.4 757.0 7 .255.5 3 .292.7 2 . 170.2 746.0 7 . 239.9 3 . 287.8 2 . 151.6 743.8 7 . 207.8 3 . 245.9 2 . 135.9 746.5 7 . 230.5 3 . 242.2 2 . 131.2 748.1 7 . 288.6 3 . 291.7 2 . 177.6 747.9 7 . 323.0 3 . 318.3 2 . 207.9 747.8 7 . 410.8 3 . 404.5 2 . 253.2 744.6 7 . 396.8 3 . 379.0 2 . 244.5 749.6 1. 606.2 1. 597.3 1. 604.6 1. 611.0 1 606.7 1. 601.0 1. 591.7 1. 585.8 1. 580.4 1. 576.4 1. 587.4 1. 596.3 1. 601.8 1. 611.9 1. 615.0 317.3 316.9 316.6 313.7 314.8 311.9 316.1 317.4 315.8 315.5 318.9 319.7 316.8 322.7 318.1 15,645 2 , 510.6 16,184 2 , 650.6 16,241 2 , 665.5 16,273 2 , 671.3 16,315 2 , 681.3 16,357 2 , 690.3 16,373 2 , 695.1 16,405 2 , 700.0 16,430 2 , 707.4 16,452 2 , 711.5 16,483 2 , 708.8 16,509 2 , 718.1 16,503 2 , 689.7 16,503 2 , 683.3 16,512 2 , 674.1 13, 134.0 13 , 533.2 13, 575.4 13, 601.4 13, 633.3 13, 666.5 13 , 677.5 13, 704.5 13, 722.6 13 , 740.5 13 , 774.2 13, 790.7 13, 813.2 13 , 819.5 13, 837.4 4 , 461.5 1, 911.2 399.7 638.6 4 , 633.4 1, 982.6 409.7 675.1 4 , 649.4 1, 993.0 409.5 674.5 4 , 675.0 2 , 001.3 411.1 681.9 4 , 692.0 2 , 009.0 412.2 687.9 4 , 708.5 2 , 017.7 412.3 689.6 4 , 712.5 2 , 022.1 412.2 693.0 4 , 718.5 2 , 023.4 412.0 694.2 4 , 727.6 2 , 031.5 411.8 693.0 4 , 739.1 2 , 037.4 412.1 698.6 4 , 753.7 2 , 041.7 412.8 702.9 4 , 764.8 2 , 045.9 413.1 705.3 4 , 777.4 2 , 050.2 414.7 709.0 4 , 789.9 2 , 056.4 413.7 713.5 4 , 790.0 2 , 055.2 413.9 712.2 4 , 050.9 4 , 153.1 4 , 165.4 4 , 173.7 4 , 179.0 4 , 187.0 4 , 190.4 4 , 197.8 4 , 204.7 4 , 210.9 4 , 214.0 4 ,218.1 4 , 227.0 4 , 228.1 4 , 236.6 2 , 784.4 1. 586.2 2 , 022.1 2 , 787.9 1. 587.0 2 , 019.9 2 , 790.7 2 , 784.8 1. 584.8 2 , 016.7 2 , 789.4 1. 584.0 2 , 021.4 728.4 12,060 731.2 12,048 Administrative and s u d d o iI SA rx/icA A 1 Fmnlm/mpnt S A rv ic A S 1 TemDorarv helD services..... Business suDOort services.... Services to buildinas and dwellinas....................... Waste management and remediation services............. Educational and health services..................................... Educational services................. Health care and social assistance................................ Ambulatory health care Outpatient care centers......... Home health care services... Hospitals.................................. Nursina and residential cata f a c il i t i e s 1 Nursina care facilities........... SnrJal assistance1 Child day care services......... Leisure and hosp itality............ Arts, entertainment, and recreation.......................... Performing arts and spectator sports.................... Museums, historical sites, zoos, and parks.................... Amusements, gambling, and recreation.............................. Accommodations and food services............................ Accommodations.................... Food services and drinking Other services............................. Repair and maintenance....... Personal and laundry services Membership associations and organizations......................... 2 , 675.8 1. 546.8 1, 945.9 714.6 12,036 2 , 743.2 2 , 746.1 2 , 751.7 1. 575.0 2 , 014.5 1. 579.6 2 , 001.0 2 , 757.1 1. 580.8 2 , 005.2 2 , 763.4 1. 573.7 2 , 003.5 734.2 11,969 1. 580.9 2 , 007.6 2 , 766.1 1. 579.2 2 , 008.5 2 , 770.1 1. 582.0 2 , 018.1 2 , 770.8 1. 582.5 2 , 019.5 2 , 776.4 1. 582.7 2 , 014.1 740.8 11,940 725.7 11,975 726.2 12,032 725.9 12,069 725.2 12,019 727.1 12,132 729.0 12,084 724.5 12,050 724.9 12,043 724.9 12,026 1. 589.6 2 , 018.1 722.7 12,039 1, 824.4 1 , 778.0 1, 751.2 1, 772.9 1, 790.1 1, 806.2 1, 817.8 1, 835.6 1, 809.5 1, 781.8 1, 764.8 1, 759.2 1, 758.4 1, 757.4 1, 763.0 382.3 357.9 342.9 353.6 360.9 369.1 367.2 358.7 358.4 359.0 356.7 348.8 346.5 338.2 347.0 115.0 112.5 110.7 111.4 111.2 111.2 110.5 111.6 111.2 109.9 108.4 109.8 109.8 110.9 109.9 1, 327.1 1, 307.6 1, 297.6 1, 307.9 1, 318.0 1, 325.9 1 , 340.1 1, 365.3 1, 339.9 1, 312.9 1, 299.7 1, 300.6 1, 302.1 1, 308.3 1, 306.1 10, 211.3 1, 852.2 10, 191.2 1 , 779.4 10, 189.2 1, 762.4 10 , 201.7 1, 778.2 10, 241.6 10 ,262.5 10 ,274.8 1, 801.7 10 , 278.6 10 , 266.7 1, 802.3 10, 296.1 1, 812.0 10, 267.7 1, 789.1 10 , 200.8 1, 805.2 1, 788.4 1, 769.0 1, 763.6 10, 280.4 1, 769.1 10, 302.6 1, 784.6 10, 284.6 1, 769.3 8 , 359.1 5,258 1,256.5 1,255.0 8 ,411.7 5,348 1, 240.6 1, 246.7 8 , 426.8 5,340 1, 237.5 1, 247.5 8 , 423.5 5,346 1, 233.7 1, 240.0 8 ,452.5 5,343 1, 230.4 1, 237.5 8 , 460.6 5,352 1,236.3 1,236.2 8 , 395.6 5,335 1, 224.3 1, 232.7 8, 484.1 5,334 1, 218.6 1,235.6 8 , 473.1 5,329 1,215.3 1,234.8 8 , 479.3 5,323 1, 213.8 1, 229.5 8 , 509.6 5,322 1, 215.6 1, 227.0 8 , 503.1 5,320 1, 215.1 1, 226.3 8 , 511.3 5,323 1, 218.6 1, 225.0 8 , 518.0 5,316 1, 218.9 1, 223.7 8 , 515.3 5,315 1, 222.7 1, 223.3 2 , 746.4 2 , 860.7 2 , 854.8 2 , 871.9 2 , 878.2 2 , 879.4 2 , 879.0 2 , 880.0 2 , 879.1 2 , 878.7 2 , 879.5 2 ,873.8 2 , 869.3 21,489 2,767 21,479 2,765 21,526 2,774 2 , 875.3 21,544 2,781 2 , 879.7 21,118 2,764 21,540 2,782 21,556 2,778 21,576 2,786 21,588 2,791 21,547 2,789 21,526 2,769 21,484 2,761 21,476 2,749 21,473 2,750 21,456 2,746 1, 891.0 873.0 4,905 2 , 112.9 2 , 791.8 13,449 7 , 479.3 5 , 970.0 1, 922.5 844.8 5,006 2 ,218.8 2 , 787.4 13,716 7 , 657.2 6 , 058.5 1, 926.9 838.4 5,013 2 , 232.5 2 , 780.3 13,701 7 , 673.7 6 , 027.3 1, 937.7 836.1 4,993 2 , 212.5 2 , 780.5 13,759 7 , 683.9 6 , 075.1 1, 947.5 833.6 4,984 2 , 203.0 2 , 780.8 13,779 7 ,691.5 6 , 087.7 1, 954.2 827.3 4,983 2 ,203.0 2 , 780.0 13,775 7 , 697.0 6 , 077.9 1, 956.4 821.7 4,984 2 , 202.5 2 , 781.0 13,794 7 , 698.1 6 , 095.8 1, 960.2 825.3 4,974 2 , 196.8 2 , 777.3 13,816 7 , 708.5 6 , 107.6 1, 966.2 824.8 4,979 2 , 205.1 2 , 773.4 13,818 7 , 712.4 6 , 105.7 1, 964.8 823.9 4,958 2 , 188.7 2 , 769.7 13,800 7 , 693.6 6 , 106.5 1, 946.0 823.0 4,952 2 , 186.5 2 , 765.3 13,805 7 , 703.5 6 , 101.1 1, 937.0 823.6 4,941 2 , 180.8 2 , 759.9 13,782 7 , 689.1 6 , 092.6 1, 928.2 821.1 4,925 2 , 174.3 2 , 751.1 13,802 7 , 718.0 6 , 083.5 1, 929.3 820.3 4,917 2 , 171.8 2 , 145.3 13,806 7 , 718.0 6 , 086.7 1, 930.6 815.6 4,919 2 , 177.0 2 , 742.0 13,791 7 , 728.6 6 , 062.6 Federal, except U.S. Postal Other State government...... Local......................................... Other local government....... 1 Includes other Industries not shown separately, Classification System (n a ic s ), replacing the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. p = preliminary. NAics-based data by industry are not comparable with sic-based data. See "Notes on the NOTE: Data reflect the conversion to the 2002 version of the North American industry data" for a description of the most recent benchmark revision, preliminary. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 75 Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data 13. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers' on private nonfarm payrolls, by industry, monthly data seasonally adjusted Industry 2002 Annual average 2001 2002 2003 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July*5 A ug.p T O T A L P R I V A T E ............................................. 34.0 33.9 33.9 33.9 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.8 33.7 33.8 33.7 33.7 33.7 33.7 G O O D S - P R O D U C I N G ........................................ 39.9 39.9 39.9 40.0 39.7 39.7 39.8 40.0 39.6 39.9 39.5 39.7 39.8 39.7 39.7 N a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s a n d m in in g .................. 44.6 43.2 43.3 43.0 43.0 42.3 43.0 43.1 43.3 44.2 43.4 43.8 43.7 43.7 43.7 38.2 38.9 37.6 38.7 37.9 38.5 38.4 38.4 38.6 33.7 C o n s t r u c t i o n ........................................................ 38.7 38.4 38.5 38.7 38.2 38.0 M a n u f a c t u r i n g ...................................................... 40.5 4.2 40.5 4.2 40.5 40 3 40 4 Overtime hours.................................... 40.3 4.0 4.2 4.2 4.3 4.3 4.4 4.3 4.1 4.0 4.1 4.0 4.0 4.0 Durable goods.......................................... Overtime hours.................................... Wood products...................................... Nonmetallic mineral products.............. Primary metals....................................... Fabricated metal products................... Machinery............................................... Computer and electronic products..... Electrical equipment and appliances.. Transportation equipment.................... Furniture and related products............ Miscellaneous manufacturing.............. 40.6 3.9 40.2 41.6 42.4 40.6 40.9 39.8 39.8 41.9 38.3 38.8 40.8 4.2 39 9 42.0 42.4 40.6 40.5 39.7 40.1 42.5 39.2 38.6 40.7 4.2 39 8 42.1 42.3 40.7 40.6 39.6 40.2 42.4 38.8 38.4 40.8 4.2 39 9 40.6 4.3 39 9 40.6 4.3 3 Q ft 40.9 4.3 39 Q 40.8 4.4 40.7 4.3 40.6 4.1 40.3 4.0 40.5 4.1 40.7 4.1 40.7 4.1 40.5 4.1 42.0 42.1 40.7 40.5 40.3 40.0 42.6 38.8 38.5 41.9 42.4 40.6 40.5 39.3 39.9 42.4 38.7 38.8 41.6 42.2 40.4 40.6 40.2 40.2 42.2 38.7 38.6 41.9 42.6 40.5 40.5 40.5 40.6 42.4 39.9 38.8 42.1 42.4 40.6 40.5 39.9 40.3 42.5 38.8 38.9 42.0 42.5 40.5 40.9 39.8 40.8 42.2 38.6 38.6 42.6 42.6 40.5 40.5 40.3 40.6 41.4 38.2 38.3 42.0 42.2 40.3 40.6 40.1 40.0 41.2 37.9 38.0 42.4 42.2 40.6 40.6 40.5 40.3 41.2 38.4 38.1 42.2 42.0 40.5 40.9 40.5 41.0 41.4 38.9 38.6 42.2 41.9 40.5 40.8 40.4 41.0 41.3 38.9 38.4 42.1 41.8 40.5 40.6 41.2 40.4 40.7 39.1 38.3 Nondurable goods................................... Overtime hours.................................... Food m anufacturing.............................. Beverage and tobacco products......... Textile mills............................................ Textile product mills............................. Apparel.................................................... 39.1 4.1 39.6 40.9 40.0 38.6 36.0 40.1 4.2 39.6 39.4 40.7 39.2 36.7 40.1 4.3 39.6 39.4 40.5 39.2 36.9 39.9 4.1 39.4 37.9 40.2 38.9 36.9 39.9 4.1 39.4 39.4 40.0 38.9 35.8 40.0 4.2 39.5 39.0 40.1 38.7 36.5 40.0 4.4 39.4 38.5 40.4 39.3 36.3 39.8 4.3 39.1 39.3 39.2 39.2 36.2 39.9 4.3 39.1 39.3 40.0 39.2 36.0 40.0 4.2 39.6 39.4 39.5 39.0 35.9 39.8 4.1 39.4 39.6 39.1 38.5 35.6 39.7 4.0 39.3 39.0 38.4 39.0 35.4 39.7 3.9 39.4 39.0 38.6 39.1 35.0 39.4 3.9 38.9 38.8 37.4 39.6 34.5 39.6 3.9 39.2 38.9 38.7 39.9 34.7 Leather and allied products................. Paper and paper products................... Printing and related support activities................................................ Petroleum and coal products............... Chemicals............................................... Plastics and rubber products............... 36.4 42.1 37.5 41.9 37.3 41.9 37.9 41.8 38.5 41.5 38.9 41.5 39.0 41.8 39.3 41.6 39.4 41.8 39.7 41.8 39.3 41.6 39.3 41.4 38.8 41.4 39.8 41.3 39.0 41.2 38.7 43.8 41.9 40.0 38.4 43.0 42.3 40.6 38.5 42.7 42.5 40.7 38.4 42.9 42.5 40.4 38.5 43.5 42.5 40.5 38.4 43.6 42.6 40.3 38.5 44.0 42.3 40.3 38.5 43.9 42.3 40.2 38.3 45.1 42.8 40.3 38.5 45.8 42.7 40.2 38.0 44.3 42.4 40.0 37.9 44.2 42.2 40.3 38.1 42.2 42.2 40.4 38.0 44.2 42.1 39.8 38.0 44.2 42.3 32.4 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.6 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.4 32.4 32.5 32.4 32.4 32.4 32.3 32.4 P R IV A T E S E R V IC E P R O V I D I N G ..................................................... T r a d e , tra n s p o r ta tio n , a n d u t i l i t i e s ................................................................... 33.5 33.6 33.5 33.7 33.6 33.6 33.5 33.5 33.4 33.4 33.4 33.4 33.4 33.3 33.5 Wholesale trade....................................... 38.4 38.0 38.0 38.0 37.8 37.9 37 .8 37.6 37.7 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.8 37.7 37.8 30.8 Retail trade................................................ 30.7 30.9 30.8 30.9 30.9 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.7 30.9 30.8 30.8 30.8 30.6 Transportation and warehousing........... 36.7 36.8 36.6 37.1 36.9 37.0 37.0 36.9 36.7 36.8 36.5 36.6 36.6 36.8 36.8 Utilities....................................................... 41.4 40.9 40.9 41.0 41.0 41.1 41.2 41.2 41.2 41.4 41.0 40.9 41.0 41.0 40.8 I n f o r m a t i o n ............................................................. 36.9 36.5 36.4 36.3 36.5 36.6 36.4 35.9 36.2 36.3 36.2 36.4 36.4 36.4 36.4 F i n a n c ia l a c t iv i t i e s ............................................ 35.8 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.5 35.6 35.7 35.6 35.6 35.6 35.5 35.6 35.5 35.4 35.5 P r o f e s s io n a l a n d b u s in e s s s e r v i c e s .................................................................. 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.4 34.2 34.2 34.2 34.3 34.3 34.2 34.0 34.1 34.1 34.1 33.9 E d u c a t io n a n d h e a lt h s e r v ic e s .................. 32.3 32.4 32.6 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.4 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.5 32.7 L e is u r e a n d h o s p i t a li t y .................................. 25.8 25.8 25.7 25.9 25.9 25.9 25.8 25.8 25.6 25.7 25.6 25.6 25.5 25.4 35.4 O t h e r s e r v i c e s ...................................................... 32.3 32.0 32.0 32.1 32.0 32.0 31.9 31.8 31.9 31.9 31.8 31.8 31.8 31.7 31.7 76 1 Data relate to production workers in natural resources and mining and manu NOTE: facturing, construction workers in construction, and nonsupervisory workers in the Industry Classification System (NAICS), replacing the Standard industrial Classification Data reflect the conversion to the 2002 version of the North American service-providing industries, (SIC) system. NAiCS-based data by industry are not comparable with SIC-based data. p = preliminary. See "Notes on the data" for a description of the most recent benchmark revision. Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2003 14. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers1on private nonfarm payrolls, by industry, monthly data seasonally adjusted 2001 2002 2003 2002 Annual average Industry Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July1* Aug.p $15.46 T O T A L P R IV A T E Current dollars................................ $14.53 16.29 $15.02 $15.05 $15.10 $15.14 $15.20 $15.22 $15.29 $15.29 $15.30 $15.35 $15.38 $15.44 Constant (1982) dollars................. 8.11 8.24 8.24 8.24 8.26 8.27 8.30 8.28 8.26 8.22 8.27 8.31 8.30 8.32 8.30 16.44 16.48 16.52 16.60 16.63 16.65 16.68 16.71 16.76 16.76 16.82 16.87 17.37 G O O D S - P R O D U C IN G ...................................... 15.78 16.33 16.38 N a tu r a l r e s o u r c e s a n d m in in g ................ 17.00 18.00 17.22 17.27 17.29 17.21 17.60 18.66 18.81 17.45 18.84 17.55 18.65 17.45 18.77 17.67 18.57 17.48 18.69 17.54 18.51 18.83 18.90 18.95 18.96 17.61 18.98 18.99 15.05 17.66 14.76 15.29 15.34 15.38 15.45 15.48 15.55 15.59 15.63 15.64 15.63 15.68 15.72 15.74 Excluding overtime.......................... 14.06 14.54 14.58 14.62 14.68 14.70 14.77 14.78 14.84 14.89 16.01 16.08 16.12 16.25 16.28 16.33 16.41 16.51 13.75 14.15 14.19 14.22 14.29 14.41 16.33 14.44 16.35 Nondurable goods............................... 16.19 14.29 14.98 16.42 15.01 15.38 14.92 16.37 14.99 Durable goods....................................... 14.88 16.34 14.50 14.55 14.56 14.61 14.63 14.70 14.70 14.16 14.56 14.63 14.67 14.72 14.76 14.81 14.82 14.92 14.91 14.91 14.97 15.00 15.06 15.08 13.70 16.77 14.02 14.06 14.10 14.13 14.17 14.19 14.21 14.29 14.26 14.24 14.31 14.34 14.41 14.40 16.97 17.02 17.05 17.09 17.14 17.13 17.16 17.25 17.22 17.25 17.29 17.34 17.36 17.40 M a n u f a c t u r in g ................................................... P R IV A T E S E R V IC E P R O V ID IN G ........................................................ T r a d e ,t r a n s p o r t a t io n , a n d u t ilit ie s ............................................................. Wholesale trade.................................... 11.29 11.67 11.71 11.75 11.77 11.79 11.83 11.85 11.88 11.85 11.83 11.90 11.92 11.97 11.96 Transportation and warehousing........ 15.33 15.77 15.80 15.83 15.92 16.02 16.02 16.05 16.22 16.22 16.18 16.25 16.30 16.43 16.36 Utilities................................................... 23.58 23.94 24.08 24.09 23.96 24.02 24.19 24.36 24.33 24.48 24.62 24.67 24.93 20.23 20.13 20.43 20.49 20.55 24.09 20.74 24.05 19.80 20.70 20.79 20.90 20.97 21.09 21.13 21.21 21.32 15.59 16.17 16.34 16.40 16.51 16.51 16.56 16.69 16.77 16.78 16.93 17.02 17.17 17.38 17.34 16.33 16.81 16.86 16.89 16.99 17.04 17.09 17.02 17.17 17.20 17.23 17.24 17.22 17.22 17.26 14.64 15.22 15.33 15.36 15.42 15.45 15.52 15.57 15.61 15.63 15.57 15.64 15.67 15.73 15.78 8.35 8.57 8.60 8.61 8.62 8.66 8.73 8.71 8.77 8.72 8.71 8.73 8.75 8.77 8.76 13.27 13.72 13.80 13.81 13.86 13.89 13.94 13.98 14.03 14.02 13.98 13.97 13.98 14.00 13.99 I n f o r m a t io n ......................................................... P r o fe s s io n a l a n d b u s in e s s E d u c a tio n a n d h e a lth O t h e r s e r v ic e s ................................................. 1 Data relate to production workers in natural resources and mining and manufac NOTE: turing, construction workers in construction, and nonsupervisory workers in the Classification System (NAICS), replacing the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system, service-providing industries. based data by industry are not comparable with SIC-based data. See "Notes on the data" for a p = preliminary. description of the most recent benchmark revision. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Data reflect the conversion to the 2002 version of the Monthly Labor Review North American industry O ctober 2003 n a ic s 77 Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data 15. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers1on private nonfarm payrolls, by industry Annual average 2002 Industry T O T A L P R IV A T E ......................................... Seasonally adjusted....................... 2003 2001 2002 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June Julyp A ugp $14.53 $14.95 $14.92 15.02 $15.11 15.05 $15.12 15.10 $15.16 15.14 $15.26 15.20 $15.27 15.22 $15.35 15.29 $15.34 15.29 $15.31 15.30 $15.31 15.35 $15.34 15.38 $15.32 15.44 $15.36 15.49 16.91 - - G O O D S - P R O D U C I N G ...................................... 15.78 16.33 16.42 16.53 16.55 16.55 16.66 16.56 16.54 16.59 16.66 16.71 16.78 16.86 N a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s a n d m in in g ................ 17.00 17.22 17.18 17.32 17.25 17.45 17.40 17.49 17.43 17.58 17.76 17.47 17.52 17.59 17.60 C o n s t r u c t i o n ...................................................... 18.00 18.51 18.64 18.79 18.79 18.70 18.90 18.68 18.69 18.73 18.83 18.85 18.90 19.01 19.05 M a n u f a c t u r i n g ................................................... 14.76 15.29 15.30 15.41 15.45 15.51 15.65 15.61 15.62 15.62 15.63 15.64 15.69 15.70 15.77 Durable goods....................................... Wood p roducts................................... Nonmetallic mineral p roducts........... Primary m e ta ls.................................... 16.01 12.33 15.39 17.68 14.68 15.93 16.19 13.97 16.04 12.42 15.44 17.69 14.70 15.92 16.31 13.96 16.16 12.42 15.54 17.84 Fabricated metal p roducts............... M achin ery............................................ Computer and electronic products ... Electrical equipment and appliances 15.38 11.99 14.86 17.06 14.19 15.49 15.42 13.78 14.79 16.05 16.34 14.01 16.20 12.37 15.59 17.93 14.78 15.97 16.24 14.02 16.29 12.43 15.46 17.99 14.85 16.06 16.26 14.03 16.39 12.49 15.55 18.09 14.97 16.20 16.41 14.16 16.34 12.52 15.62 18.05 14.95 16.11 16.32 14.08 16.34 12.51 15.48 17.96 14.92 16.16 16.55 14.18 16.33 12.51 15.52 17.86 14.97 16.19 16.55 14.25 16.30 12.48 15.69 18.03 14.94 16.20 16.59 14.25 16.33 12.57 15.73 17.93 14.92 16.23 16.56 14.19 16.40 12.70 15.70 18.02 14.92 16.33 16.75 14.28 16.30 12.81 15.82 18.23 14.98 16.41 16.83 14.22 16.48 12.78 15.81 18.11 15.04 16.35 16.79 14.45 Transportation equipm ent................. Furniture and related products........ Miscellaneous m anufacturing.......... 19.48 12.14 12.46 20.64 12.62 12.91 20.61 12.75 12.99 20.83 12.77 13.05 21.13 12.74 13.01 21.41 12.79 13.06 21.42 12.93 13.08 21.22 12.93 13.12 21.16 12.91 13.14 21.07 12.93 13.22 20.94 12.89 13.20 21.08 12.90 13.19 21.20 12.96 13.13 20.70 13.04 13.30 21.32 13.05 13.24 Nondurable goods................................. 13.75 12.18 17.67 14.15 12.54 17.68 14.15 12.58 17.40 14.25 12.61 17.61 14.27 14.47 14.49 12.81 18.04 12.70 17.68 12.66 17.53 14.53 12.70 17.69 14.57 12.66 17.62 14.31 12.61 17.60 14.48 Food m anufacturing........................... Beverages and tobacco products .... 12.72 17.70 14.56 12.71 17.93 14.58 12.70 17.56 14.76 12.85 17.84 14.67 12.77 17.57 Textile m ills ......................................... 11.40 11.73 11.80 11.76 11.70 11.71 11.83 11.99 11.92 11.92 11.92 11.95 11.94 10.60 8.82 10.96 9.10 11.09 9.13 11.11 9.16 11.02 9.15 11.07 9.19 11.20 9.30 11.12 9.30 11.11 9.33 10.98 9.45 11.95 11.14 9.47 11.95 Textile product m ills ........................... A p p a re l................................................. 11.13 9.49 11.18 9.47 11.31 9.62 11.47 9.75 Leather and allied p roducts............. Paper and paper p roducts................ 10.69 16.38 11.01 16.89 11.00 16.92 10.87 17.09 11.01 17.09 11.23 17.09 11.51 17.26 11.53 17.21 11.62 17.22 11.62 17.22 11.76 17.38 11.71 17.38 11.59 17.23 11.52 17.56 11.70 17.45 Printing and related support activities 14.48 14.93 15.01 Petroleum and coal p roducts........... 22.90 23.06 22.97 C h em icals............................................ 17.57 17.97 17.94 18.11 18.00 18.29 18.34 18.28 Plastics and rubber products............ 13.21 13.55 13.52 13.62 13.66 13.70 13.81 13.91 14.16 14.56 14.49 14.71 14.72 14.77 14.88 14.92 15.04 15.15 23.33 15.15 23.46 15.19 23.35 15.35 23.65 15.28 23.58 15.32 15.33 15.35 15.26 15.26 15.47 15.40 24.17 23.92 23.36 25.53 23.35 23.02 18.29 18.33 18.35 18.46 18.55 18.59 18.60 13.95 14.00 14.07 14.09 14.18 14.34 14.25 15.00 14.94 14.92 14.94 14.90 14.93 24.29 P R IV A T E S E R V IC E P R O V I D I N G ........................................................ T r a d e , tra n s p o r ta tio n , a n d u t i l i t i e s ................................................................. 13.70 14.02 13.98 14.17 14.13 14.12 14.12 14.24 14.36 14.34 14.31 14.28 14.33 14.31 14.33 Wholesale tra d e .................................... 16.77 16.97 16.94 17.12 17.05 17.14 17.22 17.18 17.32 17.29 17.26 17.24 17.33 17.28 17.32 11.90 Retail tra d e ............................................ 11.29 11.67 11.64 11.81 11.78 11.73 11.92 11.90 11.90 11.88 11.91 11.90 15.33 15.77 15.79 15.86 15.94 16.03 11.76 16.04 11.88 Transportation and w arehousing....... 16.02 16.26 16.23 16.21 16.19 16.29 16.40 16.36 U tilitie s.................................................... 23.58 23.94 23.84 24.28 23.93 24.12 24.26 24.02 24.16 24.41 24.47 24.52 24.58 24.56 24.77 19.80 20.23 20.00 20.56 20.59 20.67 20.90 20.79 20.88 20.88 20.98 21.01 21.03 21.00 21.21 F in a n c ia l a c t iv i t i e s ......................................... 15.59 16.17 16.25 16.47 16.48 16.49 16.64 16.70 16.95 16.89 16.93 16.97 17.16 17.26 17.31 16.33 16.81 16.68 16.91 16.89 17.01 17.28 17.14 17.40 17.36 17.21 17.18 17.25 17.08 17.06 15.77 P r o f e s s io n a l a n d b u s in e s s s e r v i c e s ............................................................... E d u c a t io n a n d h e a lth s e r v i c e s ............................................................. 14.64 15.22 15.31 15.39 15.42 15.46 15.55 15.61 15.61 15.62 15.56 15.58 15.61 15.70 L e is u r e a n d h o s p i t a l i t y .............................. 8.35 8.57 8.52 8.62 8.65 8.69 8.81 8.74 8.80 8.73 8.69 8.72 8.69 8.66 8.67 O t h e r s e r v i c e s ................................................... 13.27 13.72 13.74 13.84 13.86 13.88 14.01 14.00 14.02 14.02 13.99 13.99 13.97 13.89 13.90 1 mining and NOTE: Data reflect the conversion to the 2002 version of the North American Industry manufacturing, construction workers in construction, and nonsupervisory workers in Data relate to production workers in natural resources and Classification System (NAICS), replacing the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) the service-providing industries. system. NAiCS-based data by industry are not comparable with SIC-based data. See "Notes on the data" for a description of the most recent benchmark revision. 78 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2003 16. Average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers' on private nonfarm payrolls, by industry Industry 2001 TOTAL PRIVATE........................ $493.20 Seasonally adjusted......... - 2002 $506.22 - 2003 2002 Annual average Aug. $510.26 509.18 660.08 Sept. $516.76 510.20 Oct. $511.06 510.38 Nov. Dec. $520.37 $510.89 511.73 513.76 Jan. $510.02 514.44 Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July13 Aug.p $517.30 515.27 518.49. 516.80 $511.35 515.61 $515.95 517.30 $523.09 518.31 $516.28 518.78 $522.24 658.62 654.74 665.06 672.88 664.28 678.09 776.16 521.00 662.00 657.04 668.07 654.12 645.06 753.42 748.65 732.90 748.20 743.33 747.75 777.00 765.46 766.93 776.14 756.37 738.45 •727.17 706.86 710.64 707.97 678.45 715.49 708.01 731.38 737.10 741.39 754.38 625.73 629.71 644.78 625.96 626.36 629.49 623.64 628.73 635.45 621.72 633.95 GOODS-PRODUONG.................... 630.04 651.60 667.81 Natural resources and m ining.................................. 757.92 743.11 750.77 Construction............................... 695.89 711.61 732.55 Manufacturing............................. 595.19 618.87 621.18 628.73 Durable goods............................. 624.54 652.83 652.83 664.18 659.34 664.63 681.82 661.77 660.14 663.00 655.26 663.00 672.40 650.37 669.09 Wood products......................... Nonmetallic mineral products.... Primary metals.......................... Fabricated metal products....... Machinery................................. Computer and electronic products.................................. Electrical equipment and appliances............................... Transportation equipment....... 481.36 618.79 723.95 576.60 632.77 491.98 646.74 749.08 596.44 645.81 499.28 657.74 746.52 598.29 644.76 504.25 666.67 758.20 604.91 650.03 497.27 659.46 758.44 601.55 645.19 490.99 643.14 762.78 604.40 653.64 499.60 645.33 783.30 619.76 670.68 490.78 640.42 765.32 605.48 650.84 490.39 634.68 759.71 601.28 657.71 497.90 651.84 760.84 604.79 497.95 655.84 760.87 599.09 658.93 654.48 505.31 677.24 760.23 605.75 662.18 520.70 673.53 760.44 608.74 671.16 518.81 666.02 747.43 596.20 656.40 521.42 675.09 753.38 609.12 662.18 613.07 642.86 642.61 661.77 639.86 660.16 681.02 647.90 657.04 668.62 660.28 667.37 680.05 669.83 688.39 548.00 817.08 560.09 877.84 557.00 875.93 561.80 895.69 562.20 898.03 571.02 901.36 591.89 921.06 564.61 895.48 575.71 886.60 577.13 874.41 570.00 864.82 569.02 874.82 588.34 888.28 568.80 821.79 579.45 871.99 464.57 494.14 498.53 499.31 491.76 494.97 522.37 493.93 494.45 493.93 488.53 491.49 505.44 507.26 515.48 483.44 499.09 498.82 503.73 506.09 506.73 515.35 505.12 504.58 508.97 500.28 502.54 506.82 504.07 505.77 548.41 567.11 570.25 575.70 572.23 576.69 586.44 571.57 572.36 579.75 575.52 576.58 580.28 577.12 582.40 496.78 503.20 506.92 505.13 505.66 513.68 491.49 487.41 496.57 493.54 496.96 500.38 498.58 504.42 697.09 476.70 429.49 333.77 413.05 707.36 690.78 480.26 435.84 338.72 412.50 707.26 679.75 476.28 431.07 338.00 413.06 724.62 695.99 466.83 426.47 327.57 426.09 712.65 689.92 469.57 426.20 337.27 440.22 716.07 699.95 480.30 449.12 338.52 451.19 735.28 675.38 467.61 431.46 332.01 447.36 714.22 669.65 472.03 429.96 333.08 456.67 711.19 686.37 473.22 431.51 340.20 463.-64 716.35 695.61 472.03 431.12 336.19 468.05 717.79 704.65 461.27 432.96 336.90 459.03 714.32 695.38 463.69 441.61 336.90 454.33 717.46 701.11 436.18 449.01 329.97 449.28 721.72 462.08 459.95 339.30 455.13 715.86 573.42 580.89 590.85 586.31 587.85 597.12 580.64 582.16 591.74 580.23 573.78 578.35 583.22 586.74 992.05 759.57 971.63 760.66 1,014.86 773.30 1,022.86 765.00 1,025.07 784.64 1,040.60 786.79 1,039.88 769.59 1,095.48 780.98 1,109.40 780.86 1,052.48 776.21 1,006.82 777.17 1,047.09 786.52 1,041.41 777.06 1,008.28 784.92 549.57 548.91 554.33 554.60 552.11 566.21 556.40 558.00 561.40 561.39 569.24 572.87 560.69 570.00 473.10 475.27 482.49 476.93 478.55 488.06 477.44 488.80 487.50 481.07 481.92 490.03 484.25 486.72 Furniture and related products.................................. Miscellaneous manufacturing......................... Nondurable goods....................... Food manufacturing.................. 481.67 Beverages and tobacco products.................................. 721.68 Textile mills............................... 456.64 Textile product mills................. 408.56 Apparel..................................... 317.15 Leather and allied products...... 388.83 Paper and paper products....... 690.06 Printing and related 560.89 support activities.................... Petroleum and coal products................................. 1,003.34 Chemicals................................. 735.54 Plastics and rubber 528.69 688.74 PRIVATE SERVICE PROVIDING.................................. 460.32 Trade, transportation, and utilities............................... 459.53 471.09 475.32 481.78 473.36 470.20 478.67 467.07 476.75 478.96 475.09 476.95 487.22 483.68 485.79 Wholesale trade......................... 643.45 643.99 645.41 657.41 642.79 649.61 657.80 639.10 654.70 655.29 647.25 651.67 663.74 649.73 658.16 Retail trade................................. 346.16 360.53 365.50 368.47 361.65 357.77 366.91 356.40 362.37 364.14 362.95 365.90 373.97 372.47 373.97 warehousing.............................. 562.70 580.68 582.65 591.58 586.59 593.11 603.10 581.53 593.49 595.64 586.80 590.94 604.36 603.52 606.96 Utilities......................................... 977.18 978.44 975.06 1,005.19 985.92 996.16 997.09 987.22 992.98 1,003.25 1,005.72 1,000.42 1,010.24 1,006.96 1,013.09 731.11 739.41 730.00 754.55 753.59 758.59 769.12 742.20 760.03 757.94 753.18 758.46 773.90 764.40 774.17 558.02 575.43 576.88 596.21 581.74 585.40 604.03 587.84 611.90 608.04 595.94 599.04 621.19 607.55 612.77 557.84 574.59 573.79 585.09 577.64 580.04 596.16 579.33 598.56 597.18 585.14 584.12 598.58 580.72 581.75 Transportation and Professional and Education and health services.......................... Other services............................. 473.39 493.02 499.11 503.25 499.61 502.45 506.93 507.33 508.89 509.21 502.59 503.23 510.45 510.25 515.68 215.19 221.15 226.63 224.12 222.31 221.60 227.30 217.63 224.40 224.36 219.86 222.36 226.81 226.89 228.02 428.64 439.65 442.43 445.65 443.52 442.77 449.72 442.40 445.84 447.24 443.48 443.48 447.04 441.70 443.41 1 Data relate to production workers in natural resouces and mining and manufacturing, Industry Classification System (naics ), replacing the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) construction workers in construction, and nonsupervisory workers in the service-providing system. NAics-based data by industry are not comparable with Sic-based data. See "Notes on Industries. the data" for a description of the most recent benchmark revision. NOTE: Data reflect the conversion to the 2002 version of the North American https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Dash indicates data not available, p = preliminary. Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 79 Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data 17. Diffusion indexes of employment change, seasonally adjusted [In percent] Tim espan and year Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Private nonfarm payrolls, 278 industries Over 1-month span: 1999................................................. 2000................................................. 2001................................................. 2002................................................. 56.3 65.5 52.3 40.5 64.7 60.3 49.6 37.0 56.7 65.5 48.6 37.6 65.8 58.8 36.5 41.0 64.2 47.7 41.4 41.7 61.9 61.7 38.1 43.7 63.3 65.5 35.6 39.0 59.9 52.9 38.5 41.7 2003................................................. 44.2 36.7 44.1 46.9 43.3 37.2 41.6 38.5 Over 3-month span: 1999................................................. 2000................................................. 2001................................................. 2002................................................. 61.5 70.1 54.9 34.4 64.9 66.0 50.7 38.3 61.0 68.3 50.5 36.5 65.8 68.3 43.5 35.4 66.4 58.5 37.2 36.7 69.1 56.3 39.7 64.4 62.2 35.8 41.4 2003................................................... 36.0 35.6 36.0 41.2 43.0 38.8 40.6 66.9 58.1 36.2 39.7 37.6 33.5 Over 6-month span: 1999.................................................. 2000.................................................. 2001.................................................. 2002.................................................. 66.9 67.6 53.2 30.6 64.9 68.7 51.4 29.9 63.7 71.4 50.7 31.1 64.0 71.9 47.1 31.3 65.6 68.5 42.8 33.3 65.8 66.2 38.8 35.8 66.7 67.3 37.6 36.9 66.2 60.4 34.5 37.4 2003.................................................. 37.4 36.5 35.1 34.7 37.4 36.5 37.9 35.1 Over 12-month span: 1999.................................................. 2000................................................... 2001.................................................. 2002................................................... 70.5 70.9 59.5 33.6 68.7 69.2 59.5 31.7 68.2 73.2 53.4 30.2 68.0 71.0 49.3 30.2 68.3 69.8 48.6 30.4 68.3 71.0 45.0 30.6 68.0 70.0 43.3 30.8 68.0 70.3 43.9 31.8 2003................................................... 33.8 33.3 34.5 35.4 36.5 35.4 34.9 33.5 57.6 52.3 39.0 43.3 64.4 54.1 35.6 43.9 69.1 57.7 37.8 42.4 64.4 53.2 36.0 37.2 62.2 55.9 34.5 38.1 62.9 53.1 32.2 39.0 66.7 54.0 31.7 37.8 69.6 58.3 30.9 34.9 69.4 58.3 31.1 37.8 68.7 55.0 32.9 39.9 66.4 61.0 31.3 38.3 66.5 55.2 31.7 35.8 67.8 70.3 39.9 31.5 69.1 65.6 37.8 30.0 68.3 63.8 37.1 33.5 69.1 62.1 34.9 33.3 41.7 24.4 17.9 31.0 50.6 35.1 16.7 19.6 56.0 41.1 16.7 21.4 51.8 38.7 9.5 25.0 41.1 29.2 8.3 25.6 44.6 25.6 9.5 17.9 49.4 25.0 8.9 14.9 56.5 42.3 8.3 10.7 40.5 36.9 8.3 23.8 46.4 35.1 6.5 17.9 41.1 34.5 6.5 16.7 48.2 31.0 6.0 13.7 33.3 46.4 11.9 7.7 39.3 40.5 10.1 9.5 41.1 35.1 8.3 13.1 42.9 33.3 6.0 13.1 Manufacturing payrolls, 84 industries Over 1-month span: 1999.................................................. 2000.................................................. 2001................................................... 2002................................................... 42.3 50.6 24.4 19.0 38.7 53.6 22.0 22.6 33.3 54.8 24.4 20.8 39.3 42.9 14.3 33.9 52.4 39.9 14.3 30.4 34.5 53.6 19.6 32.1 50.0 62.5 14.3 34.5 40.5 28.6 13.7 25.0 2003.................................................. 36.3 19.0 27.4 20.2 30.4 25.6 30.4 24.4 Over 3-month span: 1999................................................... 2000.................................................. 2001.................................................. 2002.................................................. 33.9 54.2 34.5 11.9 40.5 54.8 24.4 11.9 37.5 58.3 17.9 16.7 35.7 51.8 14.3 20.2 41.7 41.7 11.9 21.4 43.5 41.1 14.3 20.2 42.3 54.8 10.7 28.6 38.1 48.2 7.7 25.6 2003.................................................. 14.9 15.5 19.6 16.7 17.9 14.3 20.2 23.8 Over 6-month span: 1999.................................................. 2000.................................................. 2001.................................................. 2002.................................................. 37.5 47.0 23.8 7.7 32.7 51.2 24.4 8.9 30.4 56.5 20.8 7.7 33.3 57.1 17.9 8.9 36.9 49.4 14.9 12.5 38.1 47.6 11.9 16.7 38.1 56.0 13.7 19.6 34.5 44.0 9.5 19.6 2003.................................................. 13.7 14.3 12.5 11.9 12.5 15.5 14.9 14.3 Over 12-month span: 1999.................................................. 2000.................................................. 2001.................................................. 2002.................................................. 35.7 41.7 29.8 7.1 32.1 39.3 32.1 6.0 29.8 47.0 20.8 6.0 32.1 50.0 19.0 7.1 32.7 46.4 13.1 7.7 32.1 52.4 12.5 5.4 34.5 51.8 10.7 6.0 32.1 49.4 11.9 8.9 2003.................................................. 13.7 15.5 16.7 13.1 15.5 16.1 11.3 13.1 NOTE: Figures are the percent of industries with employment increasing plus one-half of the industries with unchanged See the "Definitions" in this section. See "Notes on the data" for a description of the most recent benchmark revision. employment, where 50 percent indicates an equal balance between industres with increasing and decreasing employment. 80 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2003 Data for the two most recent months are preliminary. 18. Establishment size and employment covered under Ul, private ownership, by Supersector, first quarter 2001 S iz e o f e s t a b lis h m e n ts I n d u s t r y , e s t a b lis h m e n ts , a n d e m p lo y m e n t T o ta l F e w e r th a n 5 to 9 10 to 19 2 0 to 4 9 5 0 to 99 1 0 0 to 2 4 9 2 5 0 to 4 9 9 5 0 0 to 9 9 9 5 w o rk e rs ' w o rke rs w o rke rs w o rke rs w o rk e rs w o rk e rs w o rk e rs w o rk e rs 1 ,0 0 0 o r m o re w o rk e rs T o t a l a ll in d u s t r i e s 2 Establishments, first quarter .................. Employment, March ................................ 7,665,968 108,932,804 4,526,062 6,886,752 1,304,741 8,633,337 858,606 11,588,220 598,438 18,104,061 208,084 14,323,060 121,189 18,158,276 31,149 10,611,556 11,678 7,917,065 6,021 12,710,477 127,969 1,566,104 74,644 110,942 23,304 154,199 15,169 203,845 9,501 285,486 2,935 200,360 1,700 254,358 499 172,011 167 109,973 50 74,930 765,649 6,481,334 494,254 714,992 127,017 832,978 75,983 1,020,982 47,230 1,410,131 13,591 925,178 6,040 890,282 1,176 390,630 293 197,146 65 99,015 398,837 16,806,452 148,682 255,376 67,510 453,750 60,267 830,685 58,942 1,836,858 28,633 2,009,224 22,490 3,456,620 7,636 2,622,512 3,198 2,166,352 1,479 3,175,075 1,840,104 25,518,430 969,760 1,629,626 376,578 2,507,906 244,890 3,278,074 153,450 4,630,611 53,110 3,670,363 32,898 4,888,033 6,970 2,343,794 1,813 1,191,894 635 1,378,129 150,855 3,692,948 84,672 113,812 20,636 137,426 17,119 234,492 14,772 457,236 6,698 465,567 4,475 685,746 1,476 507,063 674 462,533 333 629,073 716,808 7,623,126 458,390 750,421 128,266 843,311 71,615 952,198 37,529 1,121,825 11,731 801,994 6,084 917,250 1,808 621,240 897 609,199 488 1,005,688 1,238,267 16,441,289 825,617 1,170,098 173,773 1,140,772 107,694 1,451,932 73,807 2,245,729 29,139 2,022,745 19,405 2,951,873 5,654 1,933,668 2,177 1,480,878 1,001 2,043,594 679,762 14,712,829 321,428 603,470 155,333 1,027,913 96,121 1,291,605 61,097 1,836,799 22,789 1,589,809 15,989 2,383,443 3,721 1,274,120 1,690 1,178,727 1,594 3,526,943 627,875 11,590,048 249,542 390,258 104,548 705,222 110,374 1,542,760 117,264 3,560,715 33,939 2,263,935 9,463 1,344,217 1,725 586,269 667 453,703 353 742,969 954,627 4,187,740 750,261 977,871 115,619 752,689 55,756 734,980 24,254 703,687 5,498 372,499 2,630 384,044 484 160,249 102 66,660 23 35,061 N a t u r a l r e s o u r c e s a n d m in in g Establishments, first quarter .................. Employment, March ................................ C o n s t r u c t io n Establishments, first quarter .................. Employment, March ................................ M a n u f a c t u r in g Establishments, first quarter .................. Employment, March ................................ T r a d e , t r a n s p o r t a t io n , a n d u tilitie s Establishments, first quarter .................. Employment, March ................................ In fo r m a t io n Establishments, first quarter .................. Employment, March ................................ F in a n c ia l a c t iv it ie s Establishments, first quarter .................. Employment, March ................................ P r o f e s s io n a l a n d b u s in e s s s e r v ic e s Establishments, first quarter .................. Employment, March ................................ E d u c a t io n a n d h e a lth s e r v ic e s Establishments, first quarter .................. Employment, March ................................ L e is u r e a n d h o s p it a lit y Establishments, first quarter .................. Employment, March ................................ O t h e r s e r v ic e s Establishments, first quarter .................. Employment, March ................................ 1 Includes establishments that reported no workers in March 2001. 2 Includes data for unclassified establishments, not shown separately. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis NOTE: Detail may not add to totals due to rounding. Data reflect the movement of Indian Tribal Council establishments from private industry to the public sector. See Notes on Current Labor Statistics. Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 81 Current Labor Statistics: 19. Labor Force Data Annual data: establishments, employment, and wages covered under Ul and UCFE by ownership Average establishm ents Year Average annual em ploym ent Total annual wages (in thousands) Average annual wages per em ployee Average weekly wage Total covered (Ul and UCFE) 1 9 9 2 ...................................................... 1 9 9 3 ...................................................... 1 9 9 4 ...................................................... 1 9 9 5 ...................................................... 1996 ...................................................... 1997 ...................................................... 1998 ...................................................... 1 9 9 9 ...................................................... 2000 ...................................................... 2001 ...................................................... 6,532,608 6,679,934 6,826,677 7,040,677 7,189,168 7,369,473 7,634,018 7,820,860 7,879,116 7,984,529 107,413,728 109,422,571 112,611,287 115,487,841 117,963,132 121,044,432 124,183,549 127,042,282 129,877,063 129,635,800 $2,781,676,477 2,884,472,282 3,033,676,678 3,215,921,236 3,414,514,808 3,674,031,718 3,967,072,423 4,235,579,204 4,587,708,584 4,695,225,123 $25,897 26,361 26,939 27,846 28,946 30,353 31,945 33,340 35,323 36,219 $498 507 518 536 557 584 614 641 679 697 $25,622 26,055 26,633 27,567 28,658 30,058 31,676 33,094 35,077 35,943 $493 501 512 530 551 578 609 636 675 691 $25,547 25,934 26,496 27,441 28,582 30,064 31,762 33,244 35,337 36,157 $491 499 510 528 550 578 611 639 680 695 $27,789 28,643 29,518 30,497 31,397 32,521 33,605 34,681 36,296 37,814 $534 551 568 586 604 625 646 667 698 727 $25,434 26,095 26,717 27,552 28,320 29,134 30,251 31,234 32,387 33,521 $489 502 514 530 545 560 582 601 623 645 $35,066 36,940 38,038 38,523 40,414 42,732 43,688 44,287 46,228 48,940 $674 710 731 741 777 822 840 852 889 941 Ul covered 1 9 9 2 ...................................................... 1993 ...................................................... 1 9 9 4 ...................................................... 1 9 9 5 ...................................................... 1996 ...................................................... 1997 ...................................................... 1998 ...................................................... 1 9 9 9 ...................................................... 2000 ...................................................... 2001 ...................................................... 6,485,473 6,632,221 6,778,300 6,990,594 7,137,644 7,317,363 7,586,767 7,771,198 7,828,861 7,933,536 104,288,324 106,351,431 109,588,189 112,539,795 115,081,246 118,233,942 121,400,660 124,255,714 127,005,574 126,883,182 $2,672,081,827 2,771,023,411 2,918,684,128 3,102,353,355 3,298,045,286 3,553,933,885 3,845,494,089 4,112,169,533 4,454,966,824 4,560,511,280 Private in d u s try covered 1992 ...................................................... 1 9 9 3 ...................................................... 1 9 9 4 ...................................................... 1 9 9 5 ...................................................... 1 9 9 6 ...................................................... 1 9 9 7 ...................................................... 1 9 9 8 ...................................................... 1999 ...................................................... 2000 ...................................................... 2001 ...................................................... 6,308,719 6,454,381 6,596,158 6,803,454 6,946,858 7,121,182 7,381,518 7,560,567 7,622,274 7,724,965 89,349,803 91,202,971 94,146,344 96,894,844 99,268,446 102,175,161 105,082,368 107,619,457 110,015,333 109,304,802 $2,282,598,431 2,365,301,493 2,494,458,555 2,658,927,216 2,837,334,217 3,071,807,287 3,337,621,699 3,577,738,557 3,887,626,769 3,952,152,155 State gove rnm ent covered 1 9 9 2 ...................................................... 1993 ...................................................... 1 9 9 4 ...................................................... 1 9 9 5 ...................................................... 1 9 9 6 ...................................................... 1 9 9 7 ...................................................... 1998 ...................................................... 1999 ...................................................... 2000 ...................................................... 2001 ...................................................... 58,801 59,185 60,686 60,763 62,146 65,352 67,347 70,538 65,096 64,583 4,044,914 4,088,075 4,162,944 4,201,836 4,191,726 4,214,451 4,240,779 4,296,673 4,370,160 4,452,237 $112,405,340 117,095,062 122,879,977 128,143,491 131,605,800 137,057,432 142,512,445 149,011,194 158,618,365 168,358,331 Local gove rnm ent covered 1 9 9 2 ...................................................... 1 9 9 3 ...................................................... 1 9 9 4 ...................................................... 1 9 9 5 ...................................................... 1996 ...................................................... 1997 ...................................................... 1998 ...................................................... 1 9 9 9 ...................................................... 2000 ...................................................... 2001 ...................................................... 117,923 118,626 121,425 126,342 128,640 130,829 137,902 140,093 141,491 143,989 10,892,697 11,059,500 11,278,080 11,442,238 11,621,074 11,844,330 12,077,513 12,339,584 12,620,081 13,126,143 $277,045,557 288,594,697 301,315,857 315,252,346 329,105,269 345,069,166 365,359,945 385,419,781 408,721,690 440,000,795 Federal G overnm ent covered (UCFE) 1992 ...................................................... 1 9 9 3 ...................................................... 19 9 4 ...................................................... 1 9 9 5 ...................................................... 1 9 9 6 ...................................................... 1997 ...................................................... 1998 ...................................................... 1999 ...................................................... 2000 ...................................................... 2001 ...................................................... 47,136 47,714 48,377 50,083 51,524 52,110 47,252 49,661 50,256 50,993 3,125,404 3,071,140 3,023,098 2,948,046 2,881,887 2,810,489 2,782,888 2,786,567 2,871,489 2,752,619 $109,594,650 113,448,871 114,992,550 113,567,881 116,469,523 120,097,833 121,578,334 123,409,672 132,741,760 134,713,843 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals due to rounding. Data reflect the movement of Indian Tribal Council establishments from private Industry to the public sector. See Notes on Current Labor Statistics. 82 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2003 20. Annual data: establishments, employment, and wages covered under Ul and UCFE, by State A v e ra g e A v e ra g e a n n u al T o ta l a n n u a l w a g e s A v e r a g e w e e k ly e s t a b lis h m e n ts e m p lo y m e n t (in th o u s a n d s ) w age S ta te 20002 00 1 2000- 200 1 200 1 change 200 1 2000200 1 change 2 00 1 20002 00 1 2001 change change Total United States ......... 7,984,529 154,540 129,635,800 -185,779 $4,695,225,123 $109,884,920 $697 A labam a............................. A la s k a ................................. A rizo na............................... Arkansas ............................ C a lifornia............................ 112,356 19,287 118,706 72,814 1,065,699 30 467 3,546 587 74,645 1,854,462 283,033 2,243,652 1,127,151 14,981,757 -23,500 7,479 22,942 -3,731 138,284 55,822,097 10,237,292 74,963,072 30,725,592 619,146,651 1,284,088 553,237 2,546,248 963,862 7,497,476 579 696 643 524 795 C o lo ra d o ............................ C onnecticut........................ Delaw are............................ District of C o lum bia.......... F lo rid a ................................ 153,824 108,201 25,253 28,414 454,077 5,347 414 505 9 9,367 2,201,379 1,665,607 406,736 635,749 7,153,589 14,728 -9,121 482 -1,535 92,606 83,547,602 78,272,099 15,629,636 35,543,559 225,713,701 2,274,669 2,095,243 787,067 1,790,086 9,933,356 730 904 739 1,075 607 G e o rg ia .............................. H a w a ii................................ Id a h o .................................. Illin o is ................................. In d ia n a ............................... 230,232 35,439 46,480 319,588 151,376 5,219 1,412 1,084 -2,723 -1,328 3,871,763 557,146 571,314 5,886,248 2,871,236 -10,941 3,961 8,137 -54,259 -63,392 136,039,438 17,412,210 15,864,510 230,054,835 91,246,189 3,195,926 469,266 263,832 4,050,811 183,520 676 601 534 752 611 I o w a .................................... Kansas ............................... K e n tu cky ............................ Louisiana ........................... M a in e ................................. 91,006 80,521 108,025 115,807 46,206 -5,825 52 302 -2,386 1,344 1,429,543 1,319,667 1,736,575 1,869,966 593,166 -13,432 5,984 -26,160 827 2,472 41,223,534 39,792,114 52,133,417 54,473,146 17,092,043 919,492 1,221,387 1,367,028 2,345,871 750,886 555 580 577 560 554 18 15 23 24 M a ryla n d ............................ M assachusetts.................. Michigan ............................ M in n e so ta .......................... Mississippi ......................... 147,158 191,824 259,556 156,031 63,207 622 6,848 5,809 487 -748 2,421,899 3,276,224 4,476,659 2,609,669 1,111,255 16,392 21,104 -107,880 1,325 -25,520 92,644,873 147,348,234 167,385,129 95,479,188 28,806,869 5,096,016 3,574,494 -2,295,158 3,107,396 151,385 736 865 719 704 499 36 16 7 23 14 Missouri ............................. M ontana............................. N e b ra s k a ........................... Nevada .............................. New Hampshire ............... 163,121 40,477 52,653 49,635 46,070 138 2,136 836 1,770 171 2,652,876 383,905 883,920 1,043,748 610,192 -23,960 4,862 1,516 25,919 3,685 86,009,694 9,672,371 25,083,293 34,569,506 21,650,267 2,000,438 472,112 646,745 1,717,063 582,754 623 485 546 637 682 19 18 13 16 14 New J e rs e y ....................... New Mexico ...................... New Y o r k ........................... North C a rolina................... North D a kota ..................... 256,536 48,439 538,898 224,426 23,326 -13,793 522 9,822 2,208 38 3,876,194 729,422 8,423,312 3,805,498 311,632 - 1 ,2 2 1 12,293 -47,446 -57,272 2,412 171,793,642 20,935,825 393,598,666 121,866,007 8,011,085 2,443,618 1,216,191 9,383,346 1,858,872 378,510 852 552 899 616 494 23 27 19 19 O h io .................................... Oklahoma .......................... O re g o n ............................... Pennsylvania .................... Rhode Isla n d ..................... 285,567 90,603 111,073 331,405 33,636 4,705 1,574 2,150 16,187 311 5,434,769 1,463,622 1,596,753 5,552,366 468,952 -77,865 11,771 -11,175 -5,535 1,351 180,885,154 41,004,250 53,018,365 194,211,696 15,758,369 1,681,299 1,821,743 317,098 5,158,632 507,610 640 539 639 673 646 South C a ro lin a .................. South D a k o ta .................... Tennessee ........................ Texas ................................. Utah .................................... 114,979 27,365 125,165 494,088 68,607 5,613 140 4,509 2,470 1,786,899 364,715 2,625,746 9,350,770 1,050,674 -33,210 598 -41,005 62,437 6,551 52,275,679 9,337,014 82,762,402 337,047,962 31,600,715 986,967 306,302 1,275,641 12,484,223 1,082,204 563 492 606 693 578 V e rm o n t............................. V irg in ia ............................... W ashington....................... West V irg in ia ..................... Wisconsin .......................... W yom ing ............................ 24,156 195,639 221,450 46,620 148,227 21,288 287 3,048 1,775 -186 2,374 429 298,020 3,436,172 2,689,507 685,754 2,717,660 237,278 1,558 8,411 -14,921 -845 -18,388 6,446 9,011,468 126,222,350 100,746,663 19,187,832 85,713,725 6,654,092 439,492 5,662,779 413,740 726,836 1,733,629 459,596 581 706 720 538 607 539 25 30 7 Puerto R ic o ....................... Virgin Is la n d s .................... 51,733 3,236 -633 -17 1,007,919 44,330 -18,234 1,981 19,884,381 1,294,885 578,173 120,936 379 562 17 29 221 $18 21 20 16 18 3 15 29 36 56 19 18 12 1 20 14 22 12 15 20 9 19 19 21 15 18 21 16 21 17 23 NOTE: Detail may not add to totals due to rounding. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 83 Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data 84 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21. Annual data: Employment and average annual pay for all workers covered under Ul and UCFE in the 249 largest U.S. counties E m p lo y m e n t C o u n ty 1 2 00 1 P erc en t change, 2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 2 A v e ra g e a n n u a l p ay R anked by p e rc e n t change, 2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 3 2 00 1 P e rc e n t change, 2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 2 -.1 - 36,219 2.5 Jefferson, AL ..................... Madison, A L ....................... Mobile, À L ........................... Montgomery, A L ............... Anchorage, AK .................. Maricopa, AZ ......................... Pima, AZ ............................. Pulaski, A R ............................. Alameda, C A ......................... Contra Costa, CA ............. 380,680 156,169 167,000 129,878 133,842 1,561,773 326,917 240,754 697,181 337,444 - 1 .0 1.3 -1.5 -.9 3.1 197 54 35,453 37,089 29,502 29,979 37,998 35,689 30,690 32,261 46,489 44,744 4.2 3.5 3.1 3.8 3.7 Fresno, CA ........................ Kern, C A ............................. Los Angeles, C A ............... Marin, C A ............................ Monterey, C A ..................... Orange, C A ........................ Placer, CA ......................... Riverside, C A ..................... Sacramento, C A ............... San Bernardino, C A .......... 322,084 242,232 4,103,370 111,939 166,186 1,411,944 116,185 491,535 588,426 545,113 - .1 San Diego, C A ................... San Francisco, C A ............ San Joaquin, C A ............... San Mateo, C A .................. Santa Barbara, C A ........... Santa Clara, C A ................. Santa Cruz, C A .................. Solano, CA ........................ Sonoma, C A ...................... Stanislaus, C A ................... 1,218,982 586,085 204,504 369,868 177,234 1,002,637 102,669 121,402 194,922 164,473 Tulare, CA .......................... Ventura, C A ....................... Adams, C O ........................ Arapahoe, C O .................... Boulder, C O ........................ Denver, C O ........................ El Paso, C O ....................... Jefferson, CO .................... Larimer, C O ....................... Fairfield, C T ....................... 132,878 293,208 146,043 285,963 184,755 461,996 240,100 210,375 121,880 421,211 Hartford, C T ....................... New Haven, C T ................. New London, C T ................ New Castle, D E ................. Washington, DC ............... Alachua, F L ....................... Brevard, F L ........................ Broward, F L ....................... Collier, F L ........................... Duval, F L ............................ 497,280 363,265 124,684 282,318 635,734 119,148 184,725 663,954 110,230 436,663 Escambia, F L ..................... Hillsborough, FL ............... Lee, FL ............................... Leon, F L ............................. Manatee, F L ...................... Miami-Dade, F L ................. Orange, FL ........................ Palm Beach, F L ................. Pinellas, F L ........................ Polk, F L .............................. 121,285 595,768 171,902 142,981 118,788 993,804 602,668 499,688 448,788 184,471 Sarasota, F L ...................... Seminole, FL ..................... Volusia, F L ......................... Chatham, G A ..................... Clayton, G A ....................... Cobb, G A ............................ Dekalb, G A ........................ Fulton, GA .......................... Gwinnett, G A ..................... Richmond, G A ................... 147,206 145,147 142,478 122,608 114,982 301,520 305,903 754,870 289,538 104,694 United States 4 .................... 129,635,800 See footnotes at end of table. October 2003 1 .2 - .6 -.7 - .1 .7 212 192 16 61 170 175 135 80 1 .6 136 49 87 55 75 46 6 .1 1 1.5 .6 1.3 .8 4.2 3.0 18 2 .8 21 2 .0 -3.3 1.9 37 246 39 .1 120 .8 76 233 64 19 32 30 -2.3 .9 3.0 2 .1 2 .2 8 1.5 130 50 .6 88 - .2 .9 144 13 171 65 .1 121 .0 3.2 - .6 - 1 .0 29 198 -.5 - 1.1 201 2.3 1 .6 163 47 .2 112 - .2 145 81 43 33 .7 1.7 2 .1 5.9 2 1 .8 41 .8 77 42 5 1 .8 4.5 .9 5.2 1 .6 .2 3.9 3.3 .1 66 4 48 113 9 12 122 4.5 6 2 .2 .1 31 146 147 151 137 176 123 2.9 -.9 193 - .2 -.2 -.3 -.1 -.7 20 27,878 30,106 40,891 43,547 31,735 40,252 34,773 29,971 39,173 30,995 38,418 61,068 30,818 62,288 33,626 65,931 35,022 33,496 36,145 29,591 1 .6 5.1 4.7 3.1 5.7 6.5 5.3 3.1 2 .2 5.9 2 .6 4.1 2 .8 3.8 3.6 2.3 6 .1 5.3 -7.2 3.2 -13.5 -2 . 2 5.7 1.1 4.9 24,732 37,783 34,753 44,999 44,310 46,134 34,391 37,819 33,248 63,163 4.2 1.9 4.0 -2.7 -2 . 8 4.0 4.1 4.5 45,050 39,483 38,505 42,849 55,909 26,917 32,798 33,966 30,839 33,721 3.2 2.9 4.8 5.8 5.6 2.9 28,610 32,874 29,432 30,287 26,629 34,524 32,218 35,957 31,742 28,890 7.1 3.7 4.6 3.5 4.4 3.6 3.5 29,030 31,951 26,064 30,549 38,301 40,174 39,648 47,761 39,405 29,431 1.9 3.6 3.9 3.0 4.2 3.6 2.7 1.5 .9 2.9 2 .6 3.3 2 .2 2 .2 2.9 2.9 2 .1 1.5 3.6 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21. Continued—Annual data: Employment and average annual pay for all workers covered under Ul and UCFE in the 249 largest U.S. counties E m p lo y m e n t C o u n ty 1 2 00 1 P e rc e n t change, 2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 2 A v e ra g e a n n u a l p ay R anked by p e rc e n t change, 2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 3 Honolulu, H I ....................... Ada, I D ................................ Cook, I L .............................. Du Page, I L ........................ Kane, Tl .............................. Lake, I L ............................... Peoria, I L ............................ Sangamon, I L .................... Will, I L ................................. Winnebago, I L ................... 409,669 182,309 2,630,768 580,938 194,374 316,150 102,764 145,195 145,570 139,815 .4 2.7 -1.5 Allen, I N .............................. Elkhart, I N ........................... Lake, IN .............................. Marion, IN ........................... St. Joseph, I N .................... Vanderburgh, IN ............... Linn, IA ............................... Polk, I A ............................... Johnson, K S ...................... Sedgwick, KS .................... 183,329 113,524 194,624 591,406 124,967 109,418 119,914 263,469 292,984 249,863 -2.3 -6 . 8 -1.9 -1.3 -3.1 Shawnee, K S ..................... Fayette, K Y ........................ Jefferson, K Y ..................... Caddo, L A ........................... East Baton Rouge, L A ...... Jefferson, LA ..................... Lafayette, LA ..................... Orleans, L A ........................ Cumberland, M E ............... Anne Arundel, M D ............ 100,462 167,714 431,347 120,877 243,392 213,911 119,294 263,427 168,147 200,174 .3 -2.4 -1.7 1.3 - 1.1 -.4 4.5 2 .8 22 Baltimore, M D .................... Howard, M D ....................... Montgomery, M D .............. Prince Georges, M D ......... Baltimore City, M D ............. Bristol, M A ......................... Essex, MA ......................... Hampden, M A .................... Middlesex, M A ................... Norfolk, M A ........................ 360,128 132,935 449,881 304,022 381,155 218,818 306,111 204,824 850,295 327,067 .2 115 58 67 94 Plymouth, M A .................... Suffolk, M A ........................ Worcester, M A ................... Genesee, M l ...................... Ingham, M l......................... Kalamazoo, M l................... Kent, Ml .............................. Macomb, M l ....................... Oakland, M l ....................... Ottawa, Ml ......................... 166,471 602,983 321,044 160,442 174,290 116,728 339,510 326,600 755,451 115,880 Washtenaw, M l .................. Wayne, Ml ......................... Anoka, M N ......................... Dakota, M N ........................ Hennepin, M N .................... Ramsey, M N ...................... Hinds, M S ........................... Greene, M O ....................... Jackson, M O ...................... St. Louis, M O ..................... 195,562 848,463 109,521 155,662 863,674 333,380 134,285 140,739 384,942 641,151 St. Louis City, M O ............. Douglas, N E ...................... Lancaster, N E .................... Clark, NV ............................ Washoe, NV ...................... Hillsborough, NH ............... Rockingham, NH .............. Atlantic, NJ ........................ Bergen, N J ......................... Burlington, N J .................... 245,192 325,629 148,200 720,184 193,571 192,712 130,917 141,240 453,626 187,398 - .2 - .1 -.3 - 1 .8 .2 .1 -2.9 .1 -1.7 - .2 2.4 .1 .1 1.3 1.3 .9 .5 .4 - 1.1 .2 32,531 33,081 44,108 43,470 33,362 43,970 33,288 36,259 34,280 31,951 234 249 226 32,830 30,797 32,017 37,885 30,769 30,494 34,649 34,944 37,204 33,937 1.7 1.5 1.4 3.8 3.7 3.1 30,513 32,237 34,688 29,354 30,397 29,326 32,364 32,880 32,327 37,190 3.9 5.0 4.1 210 244 125 219 149 27 126 105 237 220 56 202 160 7 127 57 100 203 116 68 .8 .1 78 128 106 242 153 .2 -2.4 -.3 1.3 - .8 .0 -.9 -.9 -2.3 - .8 -2.2 -.7 .9 3.2 2.4 .0 .7 .9 1.5 3.6 P e rc e n t change, 2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 2 99 23 213 148 138 152 223 114 124 241 .9 1.4 .7 .3 -3.0 -.3 -1.7 - 1 .8 -3.2 -1.4 -2.5 2 00 1 52 82 36,240 40,191 45,893 38,986 40,508 32,012 39,242 33,357 51,734 44,173 239 34,929 58,906 37,299 35,995 35,753 33,908 34,570 40,481 45,038 32,246 117 238 154 59 186 131 194 195 235 187 40,249 42,968 34,585 35,683 45,495 40,400 31,138 28,065 37,405 38,929 231 177 69 14 28 132 83 70 51 40,834 32,866 29,352 32,648 34,231 39,320 36,642 32,555 46,828 38,776 221 224 245 211 11 2 .1 -4.0 2 .8 2 .1 3.7 3.2 6 .1 4.3 6 .1 1.4 1 .6 3.8 -.1 3.8 2 .0 3.9 4.6 8 .2 3.7 5.1 4.9 6 .2 6 .1 5.0 5.2 5.0 4.1 .5 3.6 .0 2 .2 3.4 4.0 -.9 -.9 2.3 3.8 1.7 - 1 .0 1 .2 .9 .2 1 .2 1.9 3.8 3.8 3.4 1 .8 4.1 3.7 2.1 5.8 1 .6 2.9 1 .6 4.5 .3 2.3 4.8 1.1 3.1 See footnotes at end of table. Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 85 Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data 21. Continued—Annual data: Employment and average annual pay for all workers covered under Ul and UCFE in the 249 largest U.S. counties E m p lo y m e n t C o u n ty 1 200 1 Camden, N J ....................... Essex, NJ ........................... Hudson, N J ........................ Mercer, N J .......................... Middlesex, N J .................... Monmouth, NJ ................... Morris, NJ ........................... Ocean, N J ........................... Passaic, N J ........................ Somerset, N J ..................... 199,869 361,569 237,253 215,524 399,332 240,757 277,653 133,657 175,108 176,713 Union, N J ............................ Bernalillo, NM .................... Albany, N Y ......................... Bronx, NY ........................... Dutchess, N Y ..................... Erie, N Y .............................. Kings, N Y ............................ Monroe, NY ....................... Nassau, NY ....................... New York, N Y .................... 236,609 309,166 229,957 214,227 112,912 454,839 439,343 393,783 593,368 2,342,338 Oneida, N Y ........................ Onondaga, N Y ................... Orange, N Y ........................ Queens, N Y ....................... Rockland, N Y ..................... Suffolk, N Y ......................... Westchester, N Y ............... Buncombe, NC .................. Cumberland, N C ............... Durham, N C ....................... 108,686 249,754 120,903 478,661 107,348 581,938 404,974 105,378 106,381 169,609 - 1 .8 - 1.1 .7 -.7 .4 Forsyth, NC ....................... Guilford, N C ....................... Mecklenburg, N C .............. Wake, NC ........................... Butler, O H ........................... Cuyahoga, O H ................... Franklin, OH ...................... Hamilton, OH ..................... Lorain, OH ......................... Lucas, O H ........................... 180,155 274,077 514,036 385,777 126,863 796,353 702,628 559,852 103,115 234,678 -.7 Mahoning, OH ................... Montgomery, OH .............. Stark, O H .......................... Summit, O H ....................... Oklahoma, O K ................... Tulsa, O K ............................ Clackamas, OR ................. Lane, OR ............................ Marion, OR ........................ Multnomah, OR ................. 108,769 298,982 173,888 261,098 415,507 342,502 133,997 137,574 126,999 444,393 -3.7 -1.5 - 1 .6 - 2 .1 .4 Washington, OR ............... Allegheny, P A .................... Berks, P A ............................ Bucks, P A ........................... Chester, P A ....................... Cumberland, P A ............... Dauphin, PA ...................... Delaware, P A ..................... Erie, PA .............................. Lancaster, P A .................... 228,453 711,532 165,263 246,491 217,148 122,649 173,292 214,106 128,893 218,415 1.4 .3 -.7 Lehigh, P A ......................... Luzerne, P A ....................... Montgomery, P A ............... Philadelphia, P A ............... Westmoreland, P A ............ York, PA ............................. Providence, R l ................... Charleston, S C .................. Greenville, SC ................... Richland, S C ...................... 172,860 141,944 485,822 658,827 134,128 165,879 288,650 180,711 226,362 205,841 See footnotes at end of table. 86 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis P erc en t change, 2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 2 O ctober 2003 .5 -.5 .0 2 .6 1.3 3.2 .4 3.7 A v e ra g e an n u al pay R an ked by p e rc e n t change, 2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 3 95 164 133 25 60 15 101 10 - 1.1 1.7 204 44 -.1 139 84 165 2 00 1 36,530 46,526 47,638 46,831 47,726 40,399 53,829 31,034 39,192 55,769 P e rc e n t change, 2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 2 4.0 4.2 .4 4.9 2.7 1 .8 - 1 1 .0 1.9 3.8 1 .8 2 .0 26 205 140 178 188 214 46,204 31,663 37,848 34,248 38,748 32,103 31,952 36,597 40,599 74,883 225 206 85 179 103 129 161 155 240 107 28,381 33,469 30,218 36,963 38,720 38,706 48,716 28,701 26,981 48,076 4.0 3.0 2.9 5.7 3.9 180 229 108 71 166 217 118 207 247 222 34,693 33,217 41,775 36,996 32,325 37,533 36,090 38,339 32,194 33,088 248 215 218 230 104 89 150 227 172 208 26,860 34,783 29,197 33,416 30,161 32,771 33,699 28,983 28,785 37,668 3.5 .7 2.4 .3 110 1 .0 63 236 156 42,222 38,086 32,807 35,239 44,216 33,996 34,855 38,494 29,293 31,493 -5.0 3.7 2.5 3.5 - .6 53 109 181 90 91 173 .7 -.5 .4 2.5 - 1.1 -.1 -.7 - .8 -1.5 .1 -.4 -.3 -2 . 8 .3 -2 . 0 .3 .9 -.5 - 1 .6 .2 - 1.1 -3.5 -1.7 .6 - .2 -1.9 - .6 - 1.1 .6 .6 -2.3 -.3 .2 - .8 .5 -.7 -.4 - 1 .0 -.7 - 1 .0 -3.0 -.5 102 119 189 96 182 162 199 183 200 243 167 35,564 28,924 44,366 40,813 28,827 31,936 34,566 29,013 32,622 30,591 4.9 5.7 4.3 7.4 1.9 3.9 3.3 1.4 3.2 2 .2 3.5 3.8 3.3 -2 . 6 2 .0 3.1 3.1 4.6 2 .6 2 .8 3.2 2 .0 .6 2 .6 2 .1 3.2 5.2 3.7 4.0 2.4 2.4 1 .0 3.6 3.5 4.5 3.3 2 .2 .8 3.8 1.3 2 .8 3.0 3.3 3.5 4.8 4.3 3.3 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 21. Continued—Annual data: Employment and average annual pay for all workers covered under Ul and UCFE in the 249 largest U.S. counties E m p lo y m e n t C o u n ty 1 2 00 1 P erc en t change, 2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 2 Spartanburg, S C ................ Minnehaha, S D .................. Davidson, T N ..................... Hamilton, T N ...................... Knox, T N ............................. Shelby, T N ......................... Bexar, T X ............................ Cameron, T X ..................... Collin, T X ............................ Dallas, T X ........................... 117,262 106,717 434,006 187,724 203,470 496,647 655,195 111,374 181,007 1,550,835 -2 . 2 Denton, TX ........................ El Paso, T X ........................ Harris, TX ........................... Hidalgo, T X ........................ Jefferson, T X ..................... Lubbock, TX ...................... Nueces, T X ........................ Tarrant, TX ........................ Travis, TX ........................... Salt Lake, U T ..................... 122,552 248,407 1,864,100 168,610 118,764 118,042 143,470 709,162 534,861 530,497 .9 Utah, U T ............................. Arlington, V A ...................... Chesterfield, V A ................. Fairfax, V A ......................... Henrico, VA ....................... Norfolk, VA ........................ Richmond, V A .................... Virginia Beach, V A ............ Clark, WA ........................... King, W A ............................. 143,423 159,170 107,721 542,984 169,827 146,414 164,906 166,007 114,716 1,146,191 Pierce, W A ......................... Snohomish, W A ................. Spokane, W A ..................... Kanawha, W V .................... Brown, Wl ........................... Dane, W l............................. Milwaukee, Wl ................... Waukesha, W l ................... 238,600 209,657 190,057 111,552 141,950 279,208 522,022 224,721 -1.5 -.3 San Juan, PR .................... 324,791 1 Includes areas not officially designated as counties. See Notes on Current Labor Statistics. 2 Percent changes were computed from annual employment and pay data adjusted for noneconomic county reclassifications. See Notes on Current Labor Statistics. 1 .1 -.1 -.3 .6 -.5 .9 2 .1 5.7 - .6 - 1 .2 1.7 3.1 -1.9 2 .1 .7 .5 -.7 -.1 .5 .3 A v e ra g e a n n u a l p ay R an ked by p e rc e n t change, 2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 3 2 00 1 232 62 141 157 92 168 72 34 3 174 31,856 29,205 35,509 31,240 30,765 35,791 31,032 22,142 41,338 44,909 73 209 45 17 228 35 30,788 25,847 43,751 22,313 32,570 26,577 29,406 37,287 41,698 33,210 86 97 184 142 98 P e rc e n t change, 2 0 0 0 -2 0 0 1 2 4.1 3.5 1.9 2 .2 2 .2 4.2 3.7 2.7 2 .0 1 .2 5.1 3.1 4.5 2 .8 4.1 1.1 4.3 5.2 .9 3.2 143 24 38 79 185 74 36 196 28,266 55,390 32,957 52,641 37,869 33,504 40,173 26,750 33,125 47,186 .6 216 158 134 190 159 40 191 93 31,261 36,388 29,310 31,601 32,631 34,097 35,736 37,092 4.7 3.6 -1.5 4.8 3.5 3.9 2.9 3.7 -.5 169 22,179 4.1 -.1 2.7 2 .0 .8 -.7 .9 2 .1 -.9 .0 - .8 -.3 1.9 - .8 111 1.3 4.8 3.4 2 .1 4.8 4.1 4.0 5.3 3.0 - .6 4 Totals for the United States do not include data for Puerto Rico. Note: Data pertain to workers covered by Unemployment Insurance (Ul) and Unemployment Compensation for Federal Employees (UCFE) programs. The 248 U.S. counties comprise 6 6 . 2 percent of the total covered workers in the United States. 3 Rankings for percent change In employment are based on the 249 counties that are comparable over the year. Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 87 Current Labor Statistics: 22. Labor Force Data Annual data: Employment status of the population [Numbers in thousands] Em ploym ent status 1993 19941 1996 19971 19981 19991 2001 2002 198,584 205,220 207,753 212,577 215,092 217,570 144,863 1995 20001 Civilian noninstitutional population........... 194,838 196,814 200,591 203,133 Civilian labor force................................... 129,200 131,056 132,304 133,943 136,297 137,673 139,368 142,583 143,734 Labor force participation rate............... 66.3 6 6 .6 6 6 .6 6 6 .8 67.1 67.1 67.1 67.1 6 6 .8 6 6 .6 Employed............................................. 120,259 123,060 124,900 126,708 129,558 131,463 133,488 136,891 136,933 136,485 1 Employment-population ratio......... 61.7 62.5 62.9 63.2 63.8 64.1 64.3 64.4 63.7 62.7 Unemployed....................................... 8,940 7,996 7,404 7,236 6,739 6 ,2 1 0 5,880 5,692 6,801 8,378 Unemployment rate......................... 6.9 Not in the labor force............................... 65,638 6 .1 65,758 5.6 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.2 4.0 4.7 5.8 66,280 66,647 66,836 67,547 68,385 69,994 71,359 72,707 Not strictly comparable with prior years. 23. Annual data: Employment levels by industry [In thousands] 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Total private employment............................... 91,855 95,016 97,866 100,169 103,113 106,021 108,686 110,996 110,707 108,886 Total nonfarm em ployment............................ 110,844 22,219 117,298 119,708 122,770 23,886 654 128,993 24,465 645 6,149 17,560 598 6,545 17,322 131,785 24,649 599 6,787 17,263 130,376 23,410 637 5,536 17,237 125,930 24,354 131,826 23,156 641 5,274 17,241 23,873 606 6,826 16,441 22,619 581 6,732 15,306 74,710 23,834 76,759 24,239 79,227 81,667 5,433.1 13,896.7 5,522.0 14,142.5 3,837.8 3,935.3 639.6 2,940 6,969 13,462 13,683 10,777 24,700 5,663.9 14,388.9 4,026.5 620.9 3,084 84,221 25,771 5,892.5 14,970.1 4,300.3 608.5 3,419 7,648 15,957 Industry 1993 1994 Construction............................................... 4,779 16,744 114,291 22,774 659 5,095 17,021 Private service-providing............................ 69,636 72,242 Trade, transportation, and utilities.......... Wholesale trade...................................... Retail trade............................................. Transportation and warehousing........ 22,378 5,093.2 13,020.5 3,553.8 710.7 23,128 5,247.3 13,490.8 3,701.0 689.3 2 ,6 6 8 2,738 6,867 12,174 12,807 Goods-producing.......................................... 666 Financial activities.................................... Professional and business services...... Education and health services............... Leisure and hospitality............................ Other services........................................... Government..................................................... 6,709 11,495 12,303 1995 6 6 6 .2 2,843 6,827 12,844 9,732 4,350 1 0 ,1 0 0 4,428 13,289 10,501 4,572 18,989 19,275 19,432 5,813 17,419 11,018 25,186 5,795.2 14,609.3 4,168.0 613.4 3,218 7,462 15,147 14,446 11,232 4,690 4,825 4,976 11,543 5,087 86,346 26,225 5,933.2 15,279.8 4,410.3 601.3 3,631 7,687 16,666 15,109 11,862 5,168 19,539 19,664 19,909 20,307 20,790 7,178 14,335 14,087 14,798 86,834 86,267 25,983 5,772.7 15,238.6 25,493 5,641.0 15,047.2 4,372.0 599.4 4,205.3 599.8 3,420 7,843 16,010 16,184 3,629 7,807 16,476 15,645 12,036 5,258 21,118 11,969 5,348 21,489 N o t e : Data reflect the conversion to the 2002 version of the North American Industry Classification System (n a ic s ), replacing the Standard Industrrial Classification (SIC) system. NAics-based data by industry are not comparable with sic-based data. See "Notes on the data" for a description of the most recent benchmark revision. Monthly Labor Review 88 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2003 24. Annual data: Average hours and earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on nonfarm payrolls, by industry Industry 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Private sector: Average weekly hours................................................. Average hourly earnings (in dollars).......................... Average weekly earnings (in dollars)......................... 34.3 11 03 378.40 34.5 11 32 390.73 34.3 11 fi4 1? 03 399.53 40.6 12.28 498.82 41.1 12.63 519.58 44.9 14.12 634.77 34.3 34.5 34.5 34.3 34.3 34.0 33.9 412.74 431.25 448.04 462.49 480.41 493.20 506.22 40.8 12.96 528.62 40.8 13.38 546.48 41.1 13.82 568.43 40.8 14.23 580.99 40.8 14.71 599.99 40.7 15.27 621.86 39.9 15.78 630.04 39.9 16.33 651.60 45.3 14.41 653.14 45.3 14.78 670.32 46.0 15.10 695.07 46.2 15.57 720.11 44.9 16.20 727.28 44.2 16.33 721.74 44.4 16.55 734.92 44.6 17.00 757.92 43.2 17.22 743.11 38.4 14.04 539.81 38.8 14.38 558.53 38.8 14.73 571.57 38.9 15.11 588.48 38.9 15.67 609.48 38.8 16.23 629.75 39.0 16.80 655.11 39.2 17.48 685.78 38.7 18.00 695.89 18.51 711.61 41.1 11.70 480.80 41.7 12.04 502.12 41.3 12.34 509.26 41.3 12.75 526.55 41.7 13.14 548.22 41.4 13.45 557.12 41.4 13.85 573.17 41.3 14.32 590.65 40.3 14.76 595.19 40.5 15.29 618.87 32.5 10.60 345.03 32.7 10.87 354.97 32.6 11.19 364.14 32.6 11.57 376.72 32.8 12.05 394.77 32.8 12.59 412.78 32.7 13.07 427.30 32.7 13.60 445.00 32.5 14.16 460.32 32.5 14.56 473.10 34.1 10.55 359.33 34.3 10.80 370.38 34.1 1 1 .1 0 378.79 34.1 11.46 390.64 34.3 11.90 407.57 34.2 12.39 423.30 33.9 12.82 434.31 33.8 13.31 449.88 33.5 13.70 459.53 33.6 14.02 471.09 38.5 12.57 484.46 38.8 12.93 501 17 38.6 13.34 515.14 38.6 13.80 533.29 38.8 14.41 559.39 38.6 15.07 582.21 38.6 15.62 602.77 38.8 16.28 631.40 38.4 16.77 643.45 38.0 16.97 643.99 30.7 8.36 484.46 30.9 8.61 501.17 30.8 8.85 515.14 30.7 9.21 533.29 30.9 9.59 559.39 30.9 10.05 582.21 30.8 10.45 602.77 30.7 1 0 .8 6 631.40 30.7 11.29 643.45 30.9 11.67 643.99 38.9 12.71 494.36 39.5 12.84 507.27 38.9 13.18 513.37 39.1 13.45 525.60 39.4 13.78 542.55 38.7 14.12 546.86 37.6 14.55 547.97 37.4 15.05 562.31 36.7 15.33 562.70 36.8 15.77 580.68 42.1 17.95 756.35 42.3 18.66 789.98 42.3 19.19 811.52 42.0 19.78 830.74 42.0 20.59 865.26 42.0 21.48 902.94 42.0 22.03 924.59 42.0 22.75 955.66 41.4 23.58 977.18 40.9 23.94 978.44 36.0 14.86 535.25 36.0 15.32 551.28 36.0 15.68 564.98 36.4 16.30 592.68 36.3 17.14 622.40 36.6 17.67 646.52 36.7 18.40 675.32 36.8 19.07 700.89 36.9 19.80 731.11 36.5 20.23 739.41 35.5 11.36 403.02 35.5 11.82 419.20 35.5 12.28 436.12 35.5 12.71 451.49 35.7 13.22 472.37 36.0 13.93 500.95 35.8 14.47 517.57 35.9 14.98 537.37 35.8 15.59 558.02 35.6 16.17 575.43 34.0 11.96 406.20 34.1 12.15 414.16 34.0 12.53 426.44 34.1 13.00 442.81 34.3 13.57 465.51 34.3 14.27 490.00 34.4 14.85 510.99 34.5 15.52 535.07 34.2 16.33 557.84 34.2 16.81 574.59 32.0 359.08 32.0 11.50 368.14 32.0 11.80 377.73 31.9 12.17 388.27 32.2 12.56 404.65 32.2 13.00 418.82 32.1 13.44 431.35 32.2 13.95 449.29 32.3 14.64 473.39 32.4 15.22 493.02 25.9 6.32 163.45 26.0 6.46 168.00 25.9 6.62 171.43 25.9 6.82 176.48 26.0 7.13 185.81 26.2 7.48 195.82 26.1 7.76 202.87 26.1 211.79 25.8 8.35 215.19 25.8 8.57 221.15 32.6 9.90 322.69 32.7 10.18 332.44 32.6 10.51 342.36 32.5 10.85 352.62 32.7 11.29 368.63 32.6 11.79 384.25 32.5 12.26 398.77 32.5 12.73 413.41 32.3 13.27 428.64 32.0 13.72 439.65 Goods-producing: Average weekly hours............................................... Average hourly earnings (in dollars)........................ Average weekly earnings (in dollars)...................... Natural resources and mining Average weekly hours.............................................. Average hourly earnings (in dollars)...................... Average weekly earnings (in dollars)..................... Construction: Average weekly hours............................................... Average hourly earnings (in dollars)...................... Average weekly earnings (in dollars)..................... 38.4 Manufacturing: Average weekly hours............................................... Average hourly earnings (in dollars)...................... Average weekly earnings (in dollars)..................... Private service-providing: Average weekly hours................................................ Average hourly earnings (in dollars)........................ Average weekly earnings (in dollars)...................... Trade, transportation, and utilities: Average weekly hours................................................ Average hourly earnings (in dollars)........................ Average weekly earnings (in dollars)...................... Wholesale trade: Average weekly hours........................................... Average hourly earnings (in dollars).................... Average weekly earnings (in dollars).................. Retail trade: Average weekly hours........................................... Average hourly earnings (in dollars)................... Average weekly earnings (in dollars).................. Transportation and warehousing: Average weekly hours............................................ Average hourly earnings (in dollars).................... Average weekly earnings (in dollars)................... Utilities: Average weekly hours............................................ Average hourly earnings (in dollars).................... Average weekly earnings (in dollars).................. Information: Average weekly hours............................................ Average hourly earnings (in dollars).................... Average weekly earnings (in dollars)................... Financial activities: Average weekly hours............................................ Average hourly earnings (in dollars).................... Average weekly earnings (in dollars)................... Professional and business services: Average weekly hours............................................ Average hourly earnings (in dollars).................... Average weekly earnings (in dollars)................... Education and health services: Average weekly hours............................................ Average hourly earnings (in dollars).................... Average weekly earnings (in dollars)................... 1 1 .2 1 Leisure and hospitality: Average weekly hours........................................... Average hourly earnings (in dollars).................... Average weekly earnings (in dollars)................... 8 .1 1 Other services: Average weekly hours............................................ Average hourly earnings (in dollars).................... Average weekly earnings (in dollars).................. . NOTE: Data reflect the conversion to the 2002 version of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), replacing the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. NAiCS-based data by industry are not comparable with SIC-based data. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 89 Current Labor Statistics: 25. Labor Force Data Employment Cost Index, compensation,' by occupation and industry group [June 1989 = 100] June Series Sept. Dec. Mar. June Percent change 2003 2002 2001 Sept. Dec. Mar. June 3 m onths 12 m onths ended ended June 2003 3.7 153.8 155.6 156.8 158.4 159.9 161.3 162.2 164.5 165.8 156.0 154.3 158.6 156.8 149.3 153.3 157.7 156.7 159.6 158.8 151.1 155.0 158.9 157.5 161.2 160.0 152.0 156.9 160.5 158.5 163.7 162.0 153.7 158.4 162.1 159.3 165.6 163.3 155.1 159.4 163.5 161.4 166.3 164.9 156.4 161.3 164.3 162.4 166.7 166.1 157.5 162.2 166.7 164.1 171.1 168.3 159.8 164.1 167.9 165.0 172.0 170.0 161.4 165.0 152.2 152.6 154.4 155.4 154.6 155.6 152.2 153.2 153.3 156.4 158.1 156.7 158.2 156.1 154.4 154.6 157.6 159.0 158.3 160.0 156.6 156.3 156.6 159.1 160.2 160.5 162.3 157.1 157.7 158.1 160.7 161.1 161.8 163.8 157.4 158.7 159.1 162.2 163.2 163.1 165.7 161.6 169.2 160.5 162.8 163.9 164.5 167.6 162.8 163.1 164.0 165.0 165.3 166.4 169.9 163.6 164.6 165.4 166.2 166.3 167.6 170.8 164.2 .9 .9 .7 .7 .5 .4 4.6 3.4 3.2 3.6 4.3 4.3 Public administration ............................................................. Nonmanufacturing.................................................................... 151.9 153.8 155.2 156.5 157.5 160.2 161.7 163.4 164.3 .6 4.3 154.0 156.0 157.2 158.7 160.2 161.7 162.4 164.5 165.8 .8 3.5 Private in d u s try w o rk e rs .......................................................... 155.9 156.0 157.2 157.2 158.9 159.0 160.7 160.5 161.6 161.6 162.3 162.4 165.0 165.1 166.4 166.6 .8 3.5 Excluding sales occupations............................................... 154.5 154.4 .9 3.8 Workers, by occupational group: W hite-collar workers............................................................... Excluding sales occupations............................................ Professional specialty and technical occupations........... Executive, adminitrative, and managerial occupations.. Sales occupations................................................................ Administrative support occupations, including clerical... Blue-collar workers................................................................ Precision production, craft, and repair occupations........ Machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors............ Transportation and material moving occupations........... Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, and laborers.... 157.4 158.1 157.5 159.4 154.5 157.7 149.3 149.7 149.1 143.9 153.4 158.7 159.6 159.2 160.2 155.0 159.5 151.0 151.8 150.4 145.6 154.9 160.1 160.9 160.3 161.8 156.7 160.8 151.9 152.5 151.5 146.3 156.5 161.9 162.8 161.5 164.4 157.7 162.8 153.6 153.7 153.6 148.7 158.7 163.8 164.3 162.5 166.6 161.6 164.2 155.1 155.7 154.7 149.6 159.9 164.6 165.3 163.6 167.0 161.6 165.6 156.3 156.9 155.4 151.0 161.4 165.2 165.9 164.4 167.2 161.9 166.7 157.3 157.8 156.7 151.8 162.9 168.1 169.1 166.5 172.1 163.5 169.0 159.7 160.0 159.9 153.2 164.9 169.4 170.4 167.7 173.1 165.1 170.9 161.4 162.0 161.1 155.1 166.8 .8 3.4 3.7 3.2 3.9 151.3 152.6 154.8 156.4 157.4 159.0 159.8 161.7 162.6 152.7 154.3 155.5 157.1 158.7 159.7 160.5 162.6 164.1 152.1 151.5 156.5 155.0 149.3 150.3 152.6 156.0 154.0 150.0 153.1 151.6 153.1 152.5 156.8 155.3 150.8 151.7 153.3 156.0 153.8 151.3 154.0 152.0 154.4 153.7 158.1 156.5 151.9 153.0 •54.6 156.9 154.7 152.7 155.3 153.2 156.2 155.5 160.1 158.4 153.6 154.1 156.6 159.1 156.7 154.6 156.9 156.0 157.6 156.9 161.9 160.2 154.8 155.2 158.1 161.1 158.6 155.8 158.3 157.5 158.6 157.9 162.9 161.1 155.9 156.3 159.1 162.2 159.6 156.7 158.9 159.2 160.1 159.2 164.3 162.3 157.3 157.9 160.5 163.3 160.7 158.3 160.6 160.3 163.0 162.4 167.8 166.3 159.9 159.1 164.0 167.1 165.1 161.6 164.4 163.1 164.5 163.8 169.2 167.5 161.5 161.1 165.4 168.7 166.4 162.8 165.5 164.9 155.3 156.0 157.4 159.1 148.7 150.8 152.4 146.9 159.8 161.1 158.1 152.6 153.9 157.8 158.5 149.7 149.4 148.2 156.9 157.8 159.0 160.9 150.9 152.2 153.5 148.2 160.7 162.8 158.1 153.7 155.4 158.6 160.0 150.9 149.7 149.7 158.2 159.0 160.3 162.2 151.4 154.2 155.5 151.1 161.5 163.4 159.1 155.5 157.1 159.5 160.6 153.2 150.9 151.7 159.9 160.9 162.1 164.1 153.2 155.9 157.3 152.5 163.9 166.0 161.3 156.5 157.5 161.9 162.3 153.5 152.4 152.9 161.8 162.4 164.0 165.6 155.2 157.0 158.9 153.S 165.5 166.1 164.8 159.5 160.0 166.C 164.4 155.6 154.2 154.5 162.7 163.5 164.7 166.5 156.6 158.5 160.8 155.4 168.2 169.0 167.2 159.6 160.3 165.S 166.1 156.0 156.1 156.3 163.1 164.0 165.1 167.0 156.S 159.3 161.7 156.1 169.2 170.1 168.1 159.7 160.4 166.7 167.2 155.8 155.1 156.3 165.6 166.6 167.9 169.9 158.7 161.1 163.2 157.8 170.5 171.3 169.5 161.3 161.8 169.5 168.4 156.6 156.4 157.5 167.0 168.0 169.2 171.3 160.8 162.0 165.4 158.S 174.2 175.5 172.6 162.5 162.7 171.: 169.9 157.4 159.2 158.6 C ivilia n w o rke rs 2 .......................................................................... 0 .8 Workers, by occupational group: W hite-collar workers................................................................. Professional specialty and technical................................... Executive, adminitrative, and m anagerial........................... Administrative support, including clerical............................ Blue-collar workers.................................................................... Service occupations.................................................................. .7 .5 .5 1 .0 1 .0 .5 3.6 3.6 3.9 4.1 4.1 3.5 Workers, by industry division: Goods-producing....................................................................... M anufacturing......................................................................... Service-producing..................................................................... Services.................................................................................... Health services..................................................................... Hospitals.............................................................................. Educational services............................................................ 3 Service occupations............................................................... 4 Production and nonsupervisory occupations .................. Workers, by industry division: Goods-producing.................................................................... Excluding sales occupations........................................ Construction......................................................................... M anufacturing....................................................................... Durables................................................................................ Nondurables......................................................................... Excluding sales occupations........................................ Transportation and public utilities...................................... Electric, gas, and sanitary services............................ Wholesale and retail trade................................................. Excluding sales occupations........................................ Excluding sales occupations........................................ Retail trade......................................................................... Food stores...................................................................... See footnotes at end of table. 90 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2003 .6 .8 .7 .6 4.4 1 .0 2 .2 1.1 1 .2 4.1 4.1 4.0 4.1 3.7 4.3 .6 3.3 .9 3.4 .9 .9 4.4 4.4 4.5 4.6 4.3 3.8 4.6 4.7 4.9 4.5 4.5 4.7 1.1 1.3 .8 1 .2 .8 .7 1 .0 1.3 .9 1 .0 .8 .7 .7 1.1 .8 .8 .8 .8 1.3 .6 1.3 .7 2.2 2.5 1 .8 .7 .6 1.1 .9 .5 1 .8 .7 3.2 3.4 3.2 3.4 3.6 3.2 4.1 3.2 5.3 5.7 4.7 1.9 1.7 3.0 3.3 1 .2 3.2 2.7 25. Continued—Employment Cost Index, compensation,1by occupation and industry group [June 1989 = 100] 2001 Series June Sept. 2002 Dec. Mar. June 2002 Sept. Dec. Mar. P ercent change June 3 m onths 12 m onths ended ended June 2003 Finance, insurance, and real estate................................ 159.5 160.9 161,3 165.2 167.3 168.0 168.5 176.7 178.3 0.9 6 .6 Excluding sales occupations........................................ Banking, savings and loan, and other credit agencies. Insurance......................................................... Services................................................. Business services................................................. Health services..................................................... Hospitals............................................................... Educational services..................................... Colleges and universities................................... 163.1 172.7 159.3 157.8 163.0 154.7 155.9 162.6 162.6 164.7 175.4 159.9 160.0 165.2 156.8 158.4 166.4 166.2 165.0 174.5 161.3 161.0 166.2 158.4 160.3 167.6 167.5 169.8 182.1 164.0 162.6 166.3 160.6 162.8 168.5 168.1 171.3 184.2 166.1 163.7 166.6 162.0 164.5 169.0 168.4 172.1 184.6 167.1 164.9 167.2 163.2 166.2 173.5 172.0 173.1 185.3 167.9 165.4 167.5 164.4 168.1 175.2 173.7 182.0 204.3 172.1 167.1 168.5 166.5 170.8 176.3 174.5 184.0 206.3 173.9 168.4 169.2 167.9 171.9 177.1 175.4 1.1 7.4 1 .0 1 2 .0 2.5 4.7 2.9 Nonmanufacturing.............................................. .8 .4 1 .6 .8 .5 .5 3.6 4.5 4.8 4.2 .6 154.7 156.3 157.6 159.3 161.1 162.0 162.5 164.9 166.4 .9 3.3 White-collar workers.................................................. Excluding sales occupations....................................... Blue-collar occupations..................................................... Service occupations...................................................... 157.5 159.1 148.1 150.7 159.0 160.9 150.2 152.1 160.5 162.3 150.6 154.1 162.2 164.2 152.2 155.9 164.1 165.7 154.0 156.9 164.8 166.6 155.4 158.4 165.3 167.1 155.9 159.2 168.0 170.0 157.5 161.1 169.3 171.4 159.7 162.0 .8 .6 3.2 3.4 3.7 3.3 S t a t e a n d lo c a l g o v e r n m e n t w o r k e r s ............................................. 151.2 154.3 155.2 156.1 156.7 160.1 161.5 162.6 163.2 .4 4.1 150.4 149.2 153.7 151.6 149.0 153.7 152.8 156.4 154.2 151.5 154.4 153.2 157.6 155.6 153.2 155.2 153.6 159.5 156.9 154.0 155.7 154.1 159.6 158.0 154.7 159.3 158.1 162.3 161.0 158.4 160.7 159.4 163.8 162.4 159.8 161.7 162.2 160.2 165.3 163.8 161.3 160.8 165.7 164.4 161.7 .3 .4 .2 4.1 4.3 3.7 4.1 4.5 4.1 .8 1.4 Workers, by occupational group: White-collar workers....................................................... Professional specialty and technical................................... Executive, administrative, and m anagerial......................... Administrative support, including clerical............................ Blue-collar workers................................................................ .2 .4 Workers, by industry division: Services.................................................................. 150.6 154.4 154.9 155.5 155.9 159.7 160.9 161.8 162.3 .3 Services excluding schools 5 ........................................ Health services.............................................. Hospitals......................................................................... Educational services................................................. Schools.................................................................... Elementary and secondary......................................... Colleges and universities............................................ 151.9 154.5 156.1 157.9 158.7 161.0 162.8 164.0 164.2 .1 3.5 154.4 154.7 150.1 150.5 149.0 154.3 157.1 157.4 154.1 154.4 152.8 153.8 158.5 159.1 154.5 154.8 153.1 159.6 160.4 160.7 154.8 155.1 153.4 160.0 161.4 161.8 155.1 155.4 153.6 160.4 163.5 164.1 159.2 159.6 157.7 164.7 165.5 166.2 160.3 160.7 158.8 165.8 166.4 167.0 161.1 161.4 159.4 167.0 166.7 167.3 161.7 162.0 160.0 167.5 .2 .4 .4 .4 .3 3.3 3.4 4.3 4.2 4.2 4.4 151.9 151.9 155.2 156.5 157.9 160.2 161.7 163.4 164.3 .6 4.3 Public administration 3 ..................................................... 1 Cost (cents per hour worked) measured in the Employment Cost Index consists of wages, salaries, and employer cost of employee benefits. 2 Consists of private Industry workers (excluding farm and household workers) and State and local government (excluding Federal Government) workers. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis .2 3 Consists of legislative, judicial, administrative, and regulatory activities. 4 This series has the same Industry and occupational coverage as the Hourly Earnings index, which was discontinued in January 1989. 5 Includes, for example, library, social, and health services. Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 91 Current Labor Statistics: 26. Compensation & Industrial Relations Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries, by occupation and industry group [June 1989 = 100] Percent change 2003 2002 2001 Series June Sept. Dec. Mar. June Sept. Dec. Mar. June 3 m onths 12 m onths ended ended June 2003 150.8 152.3 153.4 154.8 156.1 157.2 157.8 159.3 160.3 0 .6 2.7 White-collar workers................................................................. Professional specialty and technical................................... Executive, adminitrative, and managerial........................... Administrative support, including clerical........................... Blue-collar w orkers................................................................... Service occupations................................................................. 153.1 152.155.8 152,7 146.0 149.7 154.5 154.2 156.7 154.6 147.6 151.2 155.6 155.1 158.1 155.7 148.5 153.0 157.0 155.6 160.7 157.3 149.7 154.2 158.4 156.2 162.6 158.4 151.0 155.1 159.6 158.0 163.5 159.6 151.9 '56.2 160.1 158.6 163.8 160.6 152.6 156.9 161.9 159.3 167.9 161.8 153.8 158.0 162.9 160.1 169.0 163.1 154.8 158.7 .6 2 .8 .5 .7 2.5 3.9 3.0 2.5 2.3 Workers, by Industry division: Goods-producing...................................................................... M anufacturing......................................................................... Service-producing..................................................................... Services.................................................................................... Health services..................................................................... Hospitals.............................................................................. Educational services............................................................ 147,6 150.0 151.7 153.6 151.8 151.2 151.0 149.5 150.7 153.4 156.2 153.7 15.5 154.6 150.5 151.7 154.5 157.1 155.5 155.5 155.1 151.8 153.1 155.9 158.1 157.3 157.2 155.3 153.1 154.5 157.2 158.8 158.5 158.6 155.6 153.9 155.4 156.4 160.7 159.6 160.3 159.3 155.1 156.5 158.8 161.1 160.9 162.2 160.1 156.3 158.0 160.5 161.9 162.0 163.5 160.4 157.5 159.0 161.4 162.8 163.2 164.4 160.7 .8 148.7 149.7 150.3 152.6 151.6 153.8 152.5 155.0 153.4 156.4 154.8 157.5 155.8 158.0 157.2 159.6 158.0 160.5 .5 3.0 .6 2 .6 150.9 150.8 152.1 152.2 153.3 153.3 154.7 154.9 156.3 156.1 157.0 157.0 157.5 157.9 159.3 159.4 160.4 160.5 .7 .7 2 .6 White-collar workers............................................................... Excluding sales occupations............................................ Professional specialty and technical occupations........... Executive, adminitrative, and managerial occupations.. Sales occupations................................................................ Administrative support occupations, including clerical... Blue-collar w orkers................................................................ Precision production, craft, and repair occupations........ Machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors............ Transportation and material moving occupations........... Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, and laborers.... 153.8 154.4 153.2 156.5 151.5 153.6 145.9 145.7 146.9 140.7 149.8 154.8 155.7 154.8 157.2 151.2 155.3 147.5 147.7 148.1 142.1 151.0 156.1 156.9 155.9 158.6 152.6 156.5 148.3 148,4 149.0 142.8 152.4 157.7 158.6 156.7 161.3 153.6 158.2 149.6 149.2 150.5 144.8 154.2 159.4 160.0 157.4 163.6 157.0 159.2 150.9 151.0 151.6 145.2 155.1 160.0 169.8 158.2 164.3 156.9 160.3 151.7 151.8 152.0 146.3 156.0 160.4 160.8 158.5 164.5 156.8 161.3 152.4 152.3 153.2 146.9 157.2 162.6 163.6 159.5 169.1 158.1 162.6 153.6 153.4 154.7 147.8 158.4 163.8 164.8 160.5 170.3 159.3 164.0 154.6 154.7 155.3 149.0 159.0 .7 .7 2 .8 .6 2 .0 .7 4.1 1.5 3.0 2.5 2.5 2.4 Service occupations............................................................... 147.5 148.7 150.6 152.0 152.8 153.9 154.4 155.5 Production and nonsupervisory occupations 3 .................. 149.0 150.3 151.5 152.7 154.0 154.7 155.2 156.4 148.6 147.8 152.3 150.5 146.1 143.9 150.0 152.7 150.5 147.8 150.5 149.0 149.5 148.7 152.6 150.8 147.4 145.1 150.7 152.8 150.5 149.1 151.5 149.3 150.5 149.7 153.6 151.7 148.4 146.3 151.7 153.3 151.0 150.3 151.7 153.9 151.7 150.9 155.0 152.9 149.6 147.0 153.1 154.9 152.3 151.7 153.9 151.9 153.1 152.2 156.6 154.5 150.7 148.2 154.4 156.6 153.9 152.8 155.3 153.1 153.9 153.0 157.9 155.4 151.5 149.0 155.4 157.7 155.0 153.5 156.0 154.4 155.0 154.0 158.6 156.3 152.6 150.2 156.5 158.6 155.9 154.7 157.3 155.2 151.9 156.1 157.2 158.2 148.1 149.4 149.2 145.7 153.6 155.2 151.7 152.1 156.1 157.2 158.2 160.4 149.4 151.6 150.5 147.4 154.3 155.3 153.0 153.0 157.7 158.5 159.9 161.6 151.1 152.4 152.1 148.6 156.4 157.1 155.5 155.7 158.4 159.3 160.5 162.5 151.8 153.5 153.4 149.6 158.2 159.6 156.5 155.5 154.8 157.9 150.7 146.5 146.7 157.2 159.4 150.9 147.9 148.0 161.3 161.2 152.7 148.9 148.9 160.4 162.6 152.9 150.1 150.1 C iv ilia n w o r k e r s 1......................................................................................... Workers, by occupational group: 2 Public administration ............................................................. Nonmanufacturing.................................................................... P r iv a t e in d u s t r y w o r k e r s ...................................................................... Excluding sales occupations.............................................. .8 .7 .4 .6 .6 .6 .7 .6 .2 2.9 2.9 2.7 2.5 3.0 3.7 3.3 2 .6 Workers, by occupational group: Workers, by industry division: Goods-producing.................................................................... Excluding sales occupations........................................ Manufacturing....................................................................... Food stores...................................................................... 151.9 152.6 154.0 155.6 145.3 147.2 145.7 141.6 151.0 151.8 149.9 150.1 151.9 154.5 156.5 147.8 145.5 144.5 See footnotes at end of table. 92 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2003 153.2 154.2 155.2 157.2 147.5 148.4 146.7 142.6 152.0 153.3 150.4 150.6 153.1 154.1 157.4 148.8 145.7 145.7 .8 .9 .7 .8 .4 3.0 .8 2 .6 .4 2.5 156.1 .4 2 .2 157.4 .6 2 .2 156.3 155.4 160.0 158.0 153.8 150.6 158.0 160.1 157.7 156.3 158.8 156.6 157.4 156.5 161.4 159.2 154.8 152.4 159.0 161.6 158.9 156.9 159.7 157.8 .7 .7 .9 2 .8 158.6 159.6 160.7 162.8 152.0 154.1 154.1 150.1 159.3 160.7 157.4 155.5 160.6 161.7 163.0 165.3 153.2 155.1 154.8 150.5 160.4 161.9 158.6 156.7 161.7 162.8 164.1 166.5 154.3 155.6 155.6 150.6 162.1 163.4 160.4 157.5 161.0 163.7 152.7 149.2 150.3 163.4 163.9 153.1 149.8 151.0 164.7 165.2 153.8 152.0 151.6 2 .8 .7 3.1 3.0 2.7 1 .2 2 .8 .6 .4 2.9 3.2 3.2 2.7 .6 2 .8 .8 .9 .8 .8 3.1 .7 .7 .7 .7 .7 .3 .5 2.5 2.7 .1 1.1 .9 1.1 2 .6 3.0 2 .1 2 .1 2.3 1.3 3.6 4.0 3.2 .5 1 .2 .8 2 .1 .8 2.5 .7 - .5 1.5 .4 2 .1 1 .8 26. Continued—Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries, by occupation and industry group [June 1989 = 100]__________________________________ 2001 2002 2003 P ercent change Series June Sept. Dec. Mar. June Sept. Dec. Mar. June 3 m onths 12 m onths ended ended June 2003 Finance, insurance, and real estate.................................. Excluding sales occupations......................................... Banking, savings and loan, and other credit agencies. Insurance............................................................................. Services.................................................................................. 155.8 159.1 173.2 153.6 157.1 162 8 153.6 153.3 159.6 158.4 156.0 159.1 171.7 155.0 158.2 163.7 155.4 155.4 160.5 159.6 160.3 164.5 181.2 157.1 159.5 164 0 162.0 165.7 182.8 158.6 160.3 164 0 162.4 166.1 182.7 159.6 161.5 164 6 162.6 167.3 183.9 159.1 161.7 164 6 171.1 176.7 206.4 161.6 162.8 166 6 172.4 178.5 208.7 163.0 164.0 0 .8 Health services................................................................... Hospitals........................................................................... Educational services.......................................................... Colleges and universities............................................... 154.6 157.6 170.8 153.3 155.0 160.8 151.8 151.0 156.1 155.0 157.3 157.1 161.2 159.9 158.4 158.6 161.2 159.9 159.9 160.2 165.2 163.1 160.7 162.1 166.5 164.3 161.9 163.6 167.1 164.4 163.2 164.6 167.5 165.1 .8 Nonmanufacturing................................................................ W hite-collar workers.......................................................... Excluding sales occupations........................................ Blue-collar occupations..................................................... Service occupations.......................................................... 150.9 153.8 155.3 143.9 147.1 152.2 155.0 156.9 145.8 148.2 153.5 156.4 158.3 146.4 150.1 155.0 158.0 160.1 147.5 151.4 156.5 159.6 161.3 149.0 152.3 157.2 160.2 162.1 149.8 153.4 157.5 160.5 162.5 150.2 154.0 159.4 162.8 164.9 151.1 155.0 160.5 163.9 166.1 152.4 155.5 .7 .7 .7 .9 .3 2.7 3.0 2.3 State and local government workers...................................... 151.2 154.3 155.2 156.1 156.7 160.1 161.5 162.6 163.2 .3 3.1 149.8 149.8 151.5 147.6 146.5 152.7 153.0 153.9 149.8 149.1 153.3 153.4 155.1 150.9 150.8 153.9 153.6 156.6 151.9 151.6 154.4 154.1 156.8 152.8 152.1 157.4 158.4 158.4 160.1 156.0 155.1 158.9 158.8 160.9 156.9 156.2 159.2 159.1 161.0 157.2 156.5 .2 157.5 159.0 155.1 154.5 3.1 3.2 2.7 2.9 2.9 Workers, by industry division: Services.................................................................................... 150.2 153.7 154.2 154.6 155.0 158.4 159.2 159.5 159.8 .2 3.1 Services excluding schools 4 ................................................ Health services................................................................... Hospitals........................................................................... Educational services.......................................................... Schools............................................................................. Elementary and secondary......................................... Colleges and universities............................................ 150.7 151.9 151.8 150.0 150.2 149.5 151.8 153.2 154.2 154.2 153.6 153.8 152.8 156.5 154.9 155.8 155.7 154.0 154.1 153.1 156.7 156.7 157.8 157.7 154.2 154.3 153.4 156.8 157.3 158.6 158.8 154.5 154.6 153.6 157.3 159.1 160.5 160.6 158.1 158.3 157.4 160.7 160.3 162.2 162.5 158.9 159.0 158.1 161.6 161.4 162.9 163.1 159.1 159.2 158.2 162.1 161.8 163.5 163.8 159.3 159.5 158.5 162.1 .2 .0 2.9 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.2 3.1 Public administration 2 ............................................................. 148.7 150.3 151.6 152.5 153.4 154.8 155.8 157.2 158.0 .5 3.0 1 .0 1.1 .9 .7 .6 .4 .4 6.4 7.7 14.2 2 .8 2.3 3.0 3.8 4.0 3.3 2 .6 2 .1 Workers, by occupational group: W hite-collar workers................................................................. Professional specialty and technical................................... Executive, administrative, and managerial......................... Administrative support, including clerical........................... Blue-collar workers.................................................................. Consists of private industry workers (excluding farm and household workers) and State and local government (excluding Federal Government) workers. 2 Consists of legislative, judicial, administrative, and regulatory activities. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis .2 .1 .2 .2 .4 .4 .1 .2 .2 This series has the same industry and occupational coverage as the Hourly Earnings index, which was discontinued in January 1989. 4 Includes, for example, library, social, and health services. Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 93 Current Labor Statistics: 27. Compensation & Industrial Relations Employment Cost Index, benefits, private industry workers by occupation and industry group [June 1989 = 100] ___________________________________ 2001 2002 2003 P ercent change Series June Sept. Dec. Mar. June Sept. Dec. Mar. June 3 m onths 12 m onths ended ended June 2003 P r iv a t e in d u s t r y w o r k e r s ........................................................................ 163.2 165.2 166.7 169.3 171.6 173.1 174.6 179.6 182.0 1.3 6 .1 Workers, by occupational group: White-collar workers................................................................. Blue-collar workers................................................................... 167.4 156.7 169.5 158.3 171.2 159.2 173.5 162.2 176.1 164.0 177.2 166.2 178.5 167.8 183.6 172.7 185.5 176.1 1 .0 2 .0 5.3 7.4 Workers, by Industry division: Goods-producing...................................................................... Service-producing..................................................................... M anufacturing............................................................................ Nonmanufacturing.................................................................... 159.6 164.6 157.9 164.9 160.8 167.1 158.5 167.4 162.6 168.4 160.4 168.6 165.8 170.7 163.7 171.1 167.4 173.3 165.5 173.5 168.8 174.9 166.8 175.2 171.0 175.9 168.9 176.3 178.0 179.9 176.9 180.3 180.2 182.3 179.0 182.8 94 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2003 1 .2 1.3 7.6 5.2 1 .2 8 .2 1.4 5.4 28. Employment Cost Index, private nonfarm workers by bargaining status, region, and area size [June 1989 = 100] 2001 2002 2003 2003 Mar. June Series June Sept. Dec. Mar. June Sept. Dec. Percent change 3 months 12 months ended ended June 2003 - COMPENSATION W orkers, by bargainin g s ta tu s 1 Union................................................................................................ Goods-producing....................................................................... Service-producing...................................................................... Manufacturing............................................................................. 149.5 149.3 149.5 148.8 149.4 151.0 150.6 151.2 149.9 151.1 153.1 151.6 154.2 151.4 153.5 154.8 153.4 156.0 153.4 155.0 156.3 154.7 157.6 154.6 156 6 158.1 156.2 159.9 155.9 158 8 159.5 157.8 161.1 157.9 159.9 162.1 161.4 162.6 162.3 161.4 164.1 163.4 164.6 163.8 163.7 155.3 153.1 155.9 153.7 155.4 156.7 154.0 157.5 154.4 157.0 157.8 155.3 158.6 155.5 158.2 159.6 157.2 160.3 157.6 159.9 161.4 158.6 162.2 159.1 161.7 162.5 159.5 162.9 160.1 162.4 162.8 160.8 163.3 161.3 162.9 165.4 163.6 165.9 164.5 165 4 166.8 164.9 167.2 165.8 166.7 153.7 152.3 156.0 156.0 155.2 153.5 157.4 157.6 156.3 154.6 158.6 159.4 158.3 156.2 161.1 160.4 159.9 157.6 162.2 162.9 160.5 158.9 163.5 163.8 161.3 159.0 164.6 165.0 163.8 160.6 169.0 167.3 165.2 161.6 170.4 169 5 154.6 153.7 156.0 154.8 157.4 155.6 159.1 157.5 160.9 158.5 161.8 160.0 162.5 169.8 165.2 163.5 166.6 165 0 Union................................................................................................ Goods-producing........................................................................ Service-producing...................................................................... Manufacturing............................................................................ 143.7 144.2 143.7 145.5 142.7 145.1 145.3 145.4 146.7 144.3 147.4 146.3 148.9 148.0 147.1 148.4 147.2 150.0 149.0 148.1 149.8 158.6 151.4 150.2 149.6 151.3 150.0 152.9 151.6 151.1 152.5 151.2 154.1 153.1 152.1 153.3 152.4 154.6 154.6 152.5 154.3 153.9 155.1 155.9 153.5 Nonunion......................................................................................... 152.2 150.3 152.7 151.6 152.0 153.4 151.1 154.1 152.2 153.3 154.4 152.1 155.1 153.1 154.4 155.9 153.5 156.7 154.7 155.9 157.5 154.8 158.3 156.1 157.5 158.1 155.5 158.9 156.8 158.1 158.5 156.6 159.0 157.8 158.3 160.4 157.8 161.2 159.3 160.4 161.5 158.9 162.3 160.2 161.5 149.2 149.3 152.3 152.9 150.6 150.2 153.6 154.3 151.7 151.2 154.7 153.5 152.5 157.1 156.4 154.9 153.6 158.5 158.7 155.1 154.7 159.2 159.3 155.7 154.6 160.2 160.1 157.3 155.3 164.1 161.3 158.4 156.1 165.0 163.1 1.1 151.2 148.8 152.4 149.7 153.7 150.5 155.1 151.7 156.7 152.6 157.4 153.8 157.9 154.8 159.6 156.8 160.7 158.0 .7 2 .6 .8 3.5 Nonunion.......................................................................................... Goods-producing........................................................................ Service-producing...................................................................... Manufacturing............................................................................. 1 .2 5.0 5.6 4.4 .9 14 45 1 .2 1 .2 .8 .8 .8 .8 .8 6 .0 3.3 4.0 3.1 4.2 3.1 W orkers, by re g io n 1 Northeast........................................................................................ South............................................................................................... .9 .6 8 1.3 3.3 2.5 48 4 1 W orkers, by area size 1 Metropolitan areas......................................................................... .8 .9 3.5 4.1 W AGES AND SALARIES W orkers, by bargainin g s ta tu s 1 Service-producing...................................................................... Manufacturing............................................................................. Nonmanufacturing..................................................................... .7 1 .0 .3 .8 3.0 3.6 2.4 3.8 .7 2 .6 .7 .7 .7 2.5 2 .6 .6 2 .6 .7 2.5 .7 .5 .5 2.3 2.5 W orkers, by re g io n 1 Northeast........................................................................................ South............................................................................................... 1 .6 4.1 2 .8 W orkers, by area s ize 1 Metropolitan areas........................................................................ Other areas.................................................................................... 1 The indexes are calculated differently from those for the occupation and industry groups. For a detailed description of the index calculation, see the M o n th ly L a b o r R e v ie w Technical Note, "Estimation procedures for the Employment Cost Index," May 1982. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 95 Current Labor Statistics: Compensation & Industrial Relations 29. Percent of full-time employees participating in employer-provided benefit plans, and in selected features within plans, medium and large private establishments, selected years, 1980-97 Item 1982 1980 Scope of survey (in 000's)............................................ Number of employees (in 000's): With medical care....................................................... With life insurance...................................................... With defined benefit plan........................................... 1984 1986 1988 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 21,352 21,043 21,013 21,303 31,059 32,428 31,163 28,728 33,374 38,409 20,711 20,498 17,936 20,412 2 0 ,2 0 1 17,676 20,383 20,172 17,231 20,238 20,451 16,190 27,953 28,574 19,567 29,834 30,482 20,430 25,865 29,293 18,386 23,519 26,175 16,015 25,546 29,078 17,417 29,340 33,495 19,202 9 25 76 25 9 26 73 26 10 11 10 8 27 72 26 26 71 26 84 3.3 97 9.2 30 67 28 3.3 89 9.1 3.7 89 9.3 22 21 21 22 20 3.1 3.3 3.1 3.3 3.5 Time-off plans Participants with: Paid lunch time............................................................. Average minutes per day......................................... Paid rest tim e............................................................... Average minutes per day......................................... 10 75 - 9 29 1 0 .1 1 0 .0 99 9.8 1 0 .0 29 72 26 85 3.2 96 9.4 Paid personal leave..................................................... Average days per year............................................. 20 24 3.8 23 3.6 25 3.7 24 3.3 Paid vacations.............................................................. 100 99 99 100 98 97 96 97 96 95 62 67 67 70 68 67 65 58 56 - _ _ _ 37 18 _ _ 26 _ 53 _ 69 33 16 _ _ 84 93 95 90 92 83 82 77 76 66 86 88 Average days per occurrence.................................. Paid holidays................................................................ Average days per year............................................. Unpaid paternity leave................................................ Unpaid family le a ve .................................................... - _ - 99 99 - _ 3.2 99 3.3 92 1 0 .2 68 26 3.0 91 9.4 “ Insurance plans Participants in medical care plans............................... Percent of participants with coverage for: Home health care...................................................... Extended care facilities............................................ Physical exam........................................................... Percent of participants with employee contribution required for: Self coverage............................................................ Average monthly contribution................................ Family coverage........................................................ Average monthly contribution................................ Participants in life insurance plans.............................. Percent of participants with: Accidental death and dismemberment insurance................................................................... Survivor income benefits........................................... Retiree protection available....................................... Participants in long-term disability insurance plans.......................................................... Participants in sickness and accident insurance plans........................................................... Participants in short-term disability plans 1................. 97 97 97 58 62 46 62 - - 8 70 18 76 79 28 75 80 28 81 80 30 82 42 78 73 56 85 78 63 26 46 27 51 - 43 $12.80 63 $41.40 44 $19.29 64 $60.07 47 $25.31 - 36 $11.93 58 $35.93 $72.10 51 $26.60 69 $96.97 61 $31.55 76 $107.42 67 $33.92 78 $118.33 69 $39.14 80 $130.07 96 96 96 96 92 94 94 91 87 87 69 - 72 - 74 - 72 78 64 64 59 49 44 76 5 41 77 7 37 74 8 71 7 42 71 10 33 40 43 47 48 42 45 40 41 42 43 54 51 51 49 46 43 45 44 - _ _ _ _ _ _ _ 53 55 84 84 82 76 63 63 59 56 52 50 55 98 53 45 58 97 - 63 97 47 54 56 64 98 35 57 62 59 98 26 55 62 62 97 52 95 64 63 61 48 52 96 4 58 51 52 95 22 55 98 7 56 54 56 49 - 60 45 48 48 49 55 57 33 36 41 44 43 54 55 13 32 7 66 6 6 Retirement plans Participants in defined benefit pension plans............ Percent of participants with: Normal retirement prior to age 65........................... Early retirement available........................................ Ad hoc pension increase in last 5 years................ Terminal earnings formula....................................... Benefit coordinated with Social Security................. Participants in defined contribution plans................... Participants in plans with tax-deferred savings arrangements.............................................................. 52 45 - - - - _ - - 6 10 Other benefits Employees eligible for: Flexible benefits plans................................................ Reimbursement accounts 2........................................ Premium conversion plans......................................... The definitions for paid sick leave and short-term disability (previously sickness and 5 5 12 _ fits at less than full pay. 2 _ 9 10 12 12 23 36 _ 52 38 5 accident insurance) were changed for the 1995 survey. Paid sick leave now includes only 2 plans that specify either a maximum number of days per year or unlimited days. Short- specifically allow medical plan participants to pay required plan premiums with pretax Prior to 1995, reimbursement accounts included premium conversion plans, which terms disability now includes all insured, self-insured, and State-mandated plans available dollars. on a per-disability basis, as well as the unfunded per-disability plans previously reported as tabulated separately. Also, reimbursement accounts that were part of flexible benefit plans were sick leave. Sickness and accident insurance, reported in years prior to this survey, included only insured, self-insured, and State-mandated plans providing per-disability bene 96 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2003 Note : Dash indicates data not available. 30. Percent of full-time employees participating in employer-provided benefit plans, and in selected features within plans, small private establishments and State and local governments, 1987, 1990,1992, 1994, and 1996 Small private establishments Item 1990 1992 1994 State and local governments 1996 1987 1990 1992 1994 Scope of survey (in 000's).......................................... 32,466 34,360 35,910 39,816 10,321 12,972 12,466 12,907 Number of employees (in 000's): With medical care..................................................... With life insurance.................................................... With defined benefit plan......................................... 22,402 20,778 6,493 24,396 21,990 7,559 23,536 21,955 5,480 25,599 24,635 5,883 9,599 8,773 9,599 12,064 11,415 11,675 11,219 11,095 10,845 11,192 11,194 11,708 Time-off plans Participants with: Paid lunch time......................................................... Average minutes per day........................................ Paid rest time............................................................. Average minutes per day........................................ Paid funeral leave..................................................... Average days per occurrence................................. Paid holidays.............................................................. 8 9 37 49 26 50 3.0 82 - - 10 - - - - - 50 3.1 82 51 3.0 80 17 34 58 29 56 3.7 81 11 37 48 27 47 2.9 84 36 56 29 63 3.7 74 34 53 29 65 3.7 75 7.6 14 3.0 13.6 39 2.9 67 14.2 38 2.9 67 11.5 38 3.0 Averaqe days per year1.......................................... Paid personal leave................................................... Average days per year............................................ Paid vacations............................................................ 9.5 9.2 11 12 7.5 13 2 .8 2 .6 2 .6 _ _ _ _ 62 3.7 73 88 88 88 86 10.9 38 2.7 72 Paid sick leave 2........................................................ 47 53 50 50 97 95 95 94 Unpaid leave.............................................................. 17 18 7 _ _ 57 51 59 _ 47 48 8 Unpaid family leave................................................... Insurance plans Participants in medical care plans.............................. Percent of participants with coverage for: Home health care.................................................... 66 93 69 71 66 64 93 93 90 87 79 83 26 80 84 28 - - 76 78 36 82 79 36 87 84 47 55 Percent of participants with employee contribution required for: Self coverage.......................................................... Average monthly contribution............................... Family coverage...................................................... 42 $25.13 67 47 $36.51 73 52 $40.97 76 52 $42.63 75 35 $15.74 71 38 $25.53 65 43 $28.97 72 47 $30.20 71 Average monthly contribution............................... $109.34 $150.54 $159.63 $181.53 $71.89 $117.59 $139.23 $149.70 Participants in life insurance plans............................. Percent of participants with: Accidental death and dismemberment insurance................................................................. Survivor income benefits......................................... Retiree protection available..................................... Participants in long-term disability insurance plans........................................................ Participants in sickness and accident insurance plans......................................................... 64 64 61 62 85 88 89 87 78 76 79 77 67 67 74 64 1 1 2 1 1 1 1 2 19 25 20 13 55 45 46 46 19 23 20 22 31 27 28 30 6 26 26 _ 14 21 22 21 - _ _ 29 _ _ _ _ Participants in defined benefit pension plans........... Percent of participants with: Normal retirement prior to age 65.......................... Early retirement available........................................ Ad hoc pension increase in last 5 years................. Terminal earnings formula...................................... Benefit coordinated with Social Security................ 20 22 15 15 93 90 87 91 54 95 7 58 49 50 95 4 54 46 - 47 92 - 92 90 33 89 92 89 16 10 53 44 100 100 100 18 8 10 92 87 13 99 49 Participants in defined contribution plans................... Participants in plans with tax-deferred savings arrangements............................................................ 31 33 34 38 9 9 9 9 17 24 23 28 28 45 45 24 Participants in short-term disability plans 2................ Retirement plans - - 88 Other benefits Employees eligible for: Flexible benefits plans............................................... Reimbursement accounts 3 ....................................... Premium conversion plans ..................................... 1 1 2 3 4 5 5 5 5 8 14 19 12 5 31 50 64 7 Methods used to calculate the average number of paid holidays were revised Sickness and accident insurance, reported in years prior to this survey, in 1994 to count partial days more precisely. Average holidays for 1994 are included only insured, self-insured, and State-mandated plans providing per- not comparable with those reported in 1990 and 1992. disability benefits at less than full pay. 2 The definitions for paid sick leave and short-term disability (previously sickness and accident insurance) were changed for the 1996 survey. Paid sick 3 Prior to 1996, reimbursement accounts included premium conversion plans, which specifically allow medical plan participants to pay required plan leave now includes only plans that specify either a maximum number of days premiums with pretax dollars. Also, reimbursement accounts that were part of per year or unlimited days. Short-term disability now includes all insured, self- flexible benefit plans were tabulated separately. insured, and State-mandated plans available on a per-disability basis, as well as the unfunded per-disability plans previously reported as sick leave. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis N o t e : D ash indicates d ata not available. Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 97 Current Labor Statistics: Compensation & Industrial Relations 31. Work stoppages involving 1,000 workers or more Annual totals 2002 Measure 2001 2002 Aug. Sept. 2003p Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Number of stoppages: Beginning in period............................... 29 19 1 3 1 2 1 1 0 2 1 1 1 0 2 In effect during period.......................... 30 20 3 3 3 2 1 2 0 2 1 1 1 1 2 Workers involved: Beginning in period (in thousands).... 99 46 3.5 13.7 1 .2 4.3 1.4 17.5 .0 4.0 4.0 1.3 4.0 .0 3.2 In effect during period (in thousands). 102 47 6 .2 13.7 13.5 4.3 1.4 18.8 .0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 4.0 3.2 Number (in thousands)........................ 1,151 6,596 50.6 40.3 133.4 23.9 28.6 48.8 0.0 18.5 40.0 40.0 16.0 1 2 .0 10.9 Percent of estimated working tim e1.... .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 <2) .0 0 .0 0 .0 0 (2) ____ Û (2) Days idle: 1 Agricultural and government employees are included in the total employed and total working time; private household, forestry, and fishery employees are excluded. An M o n t h ly L a b o r R e v ie w 2 Less than 0.005. explanation of the measurement of idleness as a percentage of the total time worked is found in "Total economy measures of strike idleness," 98 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2003 p - preliminary. , October 1968, pp.54-56. 32. Consumer Price Indexes for All Urban Consumers and for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers: U.S. city average, by expenditure category and commodity or service group [1 9 8 2 -8 4 = 100, unless otherwise indicated]________________________________ Series Annual average 2001 2002 2002 Aug. Sept. Oct. 2003 Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May July Aug. C O N S U M E R P R IC E IN D E X FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS All items........................................................................ All items (1967- 100)................................................. 177.1 530.4 179.9 538.8 180.7 541.2 181.0 542.1 181.0 543.2 181.3 543.1 180.9 541.9 181.7 544.2 183.1 548.5 184.2 551.8 183.8 550.5 183.5 549.7 183.9 550.9 184.6 553.0 Food and beverages.................................................. 173.6 173.1 173.4 193.8 161.3 176.8 176.2 175.6 198.0 162.1 176.6 176.0 174.9 198.6 162.2 176.9 176.4 175.2 198.4 161.8 177.1 176.5 175.1 198.9 161.3 177.4 176.8 175.5 198.3 162.1 177.8 177.3 176.1 197.3 162.4 178.1 177.5 176.7 199.8 161.6 178.9 178.3 177.6 179.2 178.6 177.7 2 0 1 .8 2 0 2 .1 164.7 164.8 179.0 178.4 177.3 201.9 165.2 179.4 178.8 177.8 203.0 164.7 180.3 179.7 178.9 204.5 168.2 180.9 180.4 179.7 204.5 169.7 167.1 2 1 2 .2 168.1 220.9 167.2 217.0 166.3 218.4 166.5 217.4 167.1 219.8 167.3 224.9 166.4 227.1 167.2 223.3 167.1 223.6 165.8 221.3 165.4 226.2 164.7 226.6 167.5 224.9 139.2 159.6 155.7 155.7 176.0 139.2 160.8 159.0 155.4 177.1 137.6 160.6 159.9 154.1 176.9 140.2 160.8 159.6 154.1 140.5 160.9 159.9 155.9 177.0 139.1 161.1 158.5 153.4 139.8 161.1 159.1 152.8 178.2 140.6 161.8 169.7 140.3 162.6 162.5 157.5 178.6 140.5 162.1 161.4 155.8 178.2 140.8 162.2 161.8 158.7 177.9 140.3 162.1 162.3 157.6 177.8 138.4 167.7 162.7 156.3 179.0 139.7 163.2 162.5 157.7 179.4 Food........................................................................... Food at home.......................................................... Cereals and bakery products............................... Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs.............................. Dairy and related products1........................ ......... Fruits and vegetables............................................ Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials............................................................. Other foods at home.............................................. Sugar and sweets................................................ Fats and oils........................................................ Other foods.......................................................... 177.0 178.3 156.1 178.5 Other miscellaneous foods 1,2 .......................... 108.9 109.2 109.3 109.7 109.8 110.3 1 1 0 .2 109.7 110.5 1 1 0 .1 110.4 1 1 0 .1 111.3 109.9 Food away from home1 ............................................ 173.9 113.4 179.3 178.3 178.8 179.2 179.9 180.7 182.6 119.8 184.9 119.9 185.8 185.9 181.1 120.4 186.4 182.2 118.8 183.9 181.0 120.4 186.6 181.5 118.1 184.2 179.8 119.7 185.1 180.1 117.7 183.6 179.6 119.1 184.7 120.5 186.7 121.3 187.2 121.4 187.1 176.4 209.6 181.5 209.2 181.4 201.3 181.2 209.6 181.1 209.5 182.3 210.9 183.2 184.3 184.1 184.5 2 0 0 .2 2 1 1 .6 2 1 2 .1 2 1 2 .1 2 1 2 .8 185.9 213.8 186.1 214.3 2 0 0 .2 200.7 202.5 109.2 217.9 203.3 114.3 203.7 204.1 117.6 216.2 201.3 117.0 216.8 2 0 2 .0 123.6 215.4 119.7 204.5 118.7 204.9 121.4 205.6 124.8 206.1 125.1 218.5 117.6 218.7 218.9 218.9 219.1 219.6 2 2 0 .1 1 1 0 .0 1 1 0 .0 147.2 131.0 115.2 138.7 128.1 144.4 127.9 119.3 134.9 128.0 111.4 143.6 127.0 113.9 146.1 129.5 136.6 135.6 127.4 114.1 148.3 131.9 156.3 136.9 127.7 114.0 154.5 138.5 169.0 143.5 127.1 114.2 153.1 136.8 147.9 143.0 127.2 114.3 153.7 137.5 137.0 144.5 126.3 115.6 159.4 143.6 130.5 151.6 126.1 115.8 159.2 143.0 130.7 133.7 127.8 112.3 144.2 127.5 125.6 134.1 127.0 121.5 119.3 113.1 118.1 116.1 107.6 1 2 0 .6 123.6 123.9 117.3 112.4 1 2 1 .0 1 2 0 .8 122.5 119.5 115.5 116.2 113.8 106.1 117.2 113.4 107.9 123.6 119.7 157.2 153.1 117.9 1 2 0 .8 117.5 156.8 152.4 117.8 158.3 154.1 Other food away from home1,2 ............................ Alcoholic beverages................................................. Housing....................................................................... 1 2 0 .2 Shelter..................................................................... Rent of primary residence.................................... Lodging away from home...................................... 2 0 0 .6 180.3 208.1 192.1 118.6 199.7 118.3 Owners' equivalent rent of primary residence3 .... 206.3 214.7 Tenants' and household insurance1,2.................. Fuels and utilities.................................................. Fuels.................................................................... Fuel oil and other fuels..................................... Gas (piped) and electricity................................ Household furnishings and operations................. Apparel....................................................................... Men's and boys' apparel....................................... Women's and girls' apparel.................................. 106.2 150.2 135.4 129.3 142.4 129.1 108.7 143.6 127.2 115.5 134.4 128.3 109.6 146.8 130.7 127.3 125.7 119.3 124.0 121.7 115.8 120.5 118.3 124.6 126.8 1 2 0 .1 1 2 2 .8 1 1 1 .0 118.0 120.5 125.5 123.2 118.0 117.2 117.8 129.2 126.4 124.3 126.2 127.7 127.5 125.3 1 2 1 .1 122.3 124.1 123.4 123.0 154.3 150.0 121.4 152.9 148.8 119.7 153.9 149.7 1 2 1 .6 123.0 154.9 151.1 122.7 155.2 151.5 120.7 154.2 150.4 119.7 155.5 151.8 119.8 158.9 155.3 119.8 161.0 157.3 119.9 159.3 155.5 98.8 140.4 98.7 98.2 139.7 148.8 124.4 123.8 107.2 192.8 202.3 148.5 119.7 119.1 107.0 193.3 203.0 2 0 2 .2 98.0 139.2 148.4 140.4 139.7 108.2 194.5 203.6 98.0 140.6 139.3 148.5 148.1 147.4 107.9 194.3 206.1 97.8 138.7 148.4 140.6 139.9 107.7 194.6 207.2 290.5 259.1 298.5 256.5 380.7 291.3 259.5 299.4 257.0 382.4 292.6 260.3 300.8 257.8 385.7 293.7 260.4 302.3 258.8 388.2 294.2 261.4 302.6 259.1 388.7 294.6 261.6 303.1 259.8 388.7 Infants' and toddlers' apparel1.............................. Footwear................................................................ Transportation............................................................ Private transportation.............................................. New and used motor vehicles2 ............................. New vehicles....................................................... 1 1 2 .1 138.5 128.1 154.0 150.0 101.3 99.2 98.7 98.7 142.1 158.7 124.7 124.0 104.8 183.5 138.1 153.4 121.5 120.9 107.7 191.0 209.4 138.7 152.2 121.7 206.5 98.9 139.5 150.7 124.5 123.9 106.9 191.8 203.4 287.3 257.7 294.7 254.9 371.3 287.7 257.9 295.2 254.8 373.3 289.2 258.3 297.1 256.0 376.7 Used cars and trucks 1......................................... Motor fuel.............................................................. Gasoline (all types)............................................. Motor vehicle parts and equipment...................... Motor vehicle maintenance and repair................. Public transportation................................................ 2 1 0 .6 140.0 152.0 116.6 116.0 106.9 190.2 207.4 Medical care............................................................... Medical care commodities....................................... Medical care services.............................................. Professional services............................................ Hospital and related services............................... 272.8 247.6 278.8 246.5 338.3 285.6 256.4 292.9 253.9 367.8 1 2 1 .1 107.4 191.4 113.2 217.3 1 2 1 .8 148.3 126.3 125.7 107.8 193.7 151.0 125.5 97.4 96.5 96.0 138.1 147.9 131.3 130.6 107.8 194.9 2 1 1 .6 137.7 145.7 130.6 130.0 107.6 196.0 216.7 136.8 143.3 139.0 138.4 107.9 195.7 213.8 295.5 261.8 304.2 261.1 388.9 297.6 263.6 306.4 260.9 394.7 298.4 264.1 307.2 261.7 398.6 104.9 1 - 6 .2 106.3 106.2 106.4 106.4 106.5 106.9 107.2 107.4 107.4 107.6 107.7 107.7 Video and audio1,2 ................................................. 101.5 1 0 2 .6 102.4 102.3 1 0 2 .6 103.0 103.2 103.4 103.8 103.7 103.8 103.8 103.7 103.7 Education and communication2 ................................ Education2 .............................................................. Educational books and supplies......................... 105.2 107.9 108.9 109.5 109.4 109.3 109.2 109.7 109.7 109.4 109.0 108.6 108.9 1 1 0 .1 118.5 295.9 126.0 317.6 127.1 319.6 129.6 323.2 129.9 323.2 130.0 324.0 130.0 323.3 130.6 329.5 131.0 332.8 131.1 333.2 131.2 332.3 131.4 332.5 132.6 335.0 136.2 338.5 341.1 93.3 362.1 92.3 365.6 93.2 372.8 92.5 373.8 92.2 374.1 91.8 374.0 91.8 375.5 92.0 376.3 91.9 376.5 91.3 377.1 90.5 377.7 89.8 381.2 89.4 392.1 89.0 Recreation2 Tuition, other school fees, and child care........... Communication1,2 92.3 90.8 91.5 99.3 99.7 1 0 0 .6 21.3 18.3 18.3 90.7 1 0 0 .1 90.4 90.0 90.0 90.3 90.1 89.5 8 8 .6 87.9 87.5 87.0 99.9 99.8 99.9 100.4 100.5 99.7 98.7 98.1 98.1 97.8 17.7 17.3 17.2 17.1 16.9 16.8 16.7 16.4 16.0 15.7 Information and information processing other than teleohone services1,4 Personal computers and peripheral 17.8 equipment1,2 ............................................. 29.5 2 2 .2 2 2 .0 293.2 Tobacco and smoking products............................. 282.6 425.2 461.5 295.9 478.2 297.0 485.8 Personal care 1........................................................ 170.5 174.7 174.9 174.9 Personal care products1....................................... 155.1 154.7 154.3 154.4 Personal care services1....................................... 184.3 188.4 189.1 189.2 2 1 .1 20.7 2 0 .0 19.7 19.5 19.1 19.0 18.7 18.0 17.2 16.7 295.4 470.6 295.6 470.4 295.8 472.5 296.5 472.4 297.5 472.7 297.3 467.2 298.1 467.9 298.1 465.6 299.2 469.1 299.6 471.8 175.3 175.5 175.4 175.9 176.7 177.2 177.7 177.9 178.4 178.4 154.6 154.2 153.4 153.0 153.3 153.3 154.1 153.6 154.2 153.5 189.3 189.9 189.9 190.6 190.9 191.7 192.5 193.0 193.2 193.9 See footnotes at end of table. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 99 Current Labor Statistics: Price Data 32. Continued—Consumer Price Indexes for All Urban Consumers and for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers: U.S. city average, by expenditure category and commodity or service group [1 9 8 2 -8 4 = 100, unless otherw ise indicated] _____________________________________ Annual average SoriGS Miscellaneous personal services................... 2001 2002 2002 Aug. Sept. Oct. 2003 Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug, 263.1 274.4 275.4 275.2 276.0 276.6 276.9 278.1 280.4 281.4 282.0 282.7 283.8 284.1 284.3 150.7 173.6 137.2 147.1 127.3 149.7 150.7 150.0 177.8 133.6 145.2 121.5 178.1 133.9 146.1 118.1 179.0 136.7 152.3 123.9 150.9 179.4 1 2 0 .6 153.1 179.2 138.0 154.5 123.6 150.4 177.1 135.5 148.4 152.0 178.9 136.4 152.2 176.9 134.8 147.2 124.6 150.6 177.4 135.2 148.0 125.5 149.7 176.8 134.2 145.1 124.0 149.6 176.6 134.0 145.4 120.5 150.2 Food and beverages.......................................... Commodities less food and beverages............. Nondurables less food and beverages............ Apparel........................................................... 134.6 148.9 122.5 119.5 150.0 180.3 132.9 146.6 116.2 150.9 180.9 133.9 149.2 117.2 Nondurables less food, beverages, and apparel.................................................. Durables............................................................ 163.4 124.6 162.2 121.4 164.8 120.7 165.2 166.0 167.4 1 2 0 .6 166.0 120.5 163.9 1 2 0 .6 1 2 0 .2 119.9 174.1 119.7 177.8 119.5 173.9 119.2 169.2 118.5 168.6 118.0 169.2 117.4 173.0 116.7 Services................................................................ 203.4 209.8 211.5 211.5 211.7 2 1 1 .8 211.9 213.1 214.0 215.1 215.1 215.9 216.8 217.6 218.0 Rent of shelter3 ................................................ Transporatation services................................... Other services................................................... 208.9 201.9 238.0 216.7 209.1 246.4 218.3 217.9 218.4 210.9 249.7 218.2 218.1 2 1 2 .0 250.2 220.9 214.2 252.6 221.5 216.3 252.8 221.7 217.1 253.0 2 2 2 .6 249.9 220.3 213.4 252.4 2 2 0 .8 2 1 2 .0 219.5 212.3 251.4 223.1 217.2 255.5 177.8 169.7 171.9 180.5 182.2 182.1 182.4 172.3 185.2 175.3 178.4 184.7 174.7 184.3 174.1 177.7 184.5 174.3 177.9 165.0 161.6 175.9 135.8 148.4 168.2 162.2 174.0 177.3 149.3 166.1 162.2 172.3 175.6 137.0 150.2 166.9 162.9 181.6 171.7 175.1 183.9 172.2 175.6 137.3 150.6 166.9 163.0 138.3 153.3 174.4 165.3 139.8 156.5 177.7 167.2 136.5 151.1 169.9 164.3 135.5 151.1 169.4 163.9 149.0 170.0 163.5 2 2 0 .0 219.9 2 2 0 .2 220.5 2 2 1 .6 2 2 2 .8 224.4 228.4 205.5 127.5 189.0 191.8 141.7 127.5 206.4 135.4 189.7 219.8 204.3 123.3 188.6 191.4 142.5 120.7 219.8 2 2 1 .0 192.5 142.1 142.1 221.9 207.4 142.6 190.2 193.0 142.6 150.1 222.4 225.5 208.2 134.0 190.3 193.2 141.7 228.0 204.3 125.3 188.9 191.8 143.6 124.9 224.6 207.5 138.1 190.2 193.1 142.5 141.7 222.5 227.2 204.1 126.1 188.4 132.3 223.1 209.1 136.5 190.3 193.0 140.8 130.9 223.5 209.8 136.8 190.5 193.2 139.9 131.3 224.3 210.3 140.6 190.8 193.5 139.7 139.2 224.9 534.3 179.6 534.3 179.6 535.0 180.6 537.1 179.5 178.9 179.6 179.1 180.2 179.7 177.9 203.7 178.8 204.5 169.5 Commodity and service group: Commodities......................................................... 2 1 0 .1 2 1 0 .1 248.2 249.1 181.5 171.3 181.8 171,9 175.0 135.9 147.7 175.3 136.7 126.8 151.2 215.3 252.5 180.2 133.6 147.4 218.0 253.7 Special indexes: All Items less food............................................. All items less shelter.......................................... All items less medical care................................ Commodities less food...................................... Nondurables less food....................................... Nondurables less food and apparel.................. Nondurables....................................................... 138.9 149.1 164.1 160.6 170.8 174.3 136.0 147.4 163.3 161.1 165.8 161.2 135.6 147.6 178.0 138.6 154.3 174.2 165.9 184.6 174.2 178.0 134.9 185.3 175.0 178.7 135.9 151.5 173.4 165.2 212.3 217.5 196.6 129.3 183.5 186.1 145.3 125.2 209.6 202.5 121.7 187.7 190.5 143.7 117.1 217.5 219.5 204.2 125.8 188.1 191.0 142.8 121.5 219.0 218.9 204.2 125.8 188.8 191.8 143.9 124.8 219.5 All items.................................................................. All items (19 6 7 - 100)............................................. 173.5 516.8 175.9 523.9 176.6 526.0 177.0 527.3 177.3 528.2 177.4 528.4 177.0 527.2 177.7 529.2 179.2 533.7 180.3 537.1 179.8 535.5 Food and beverages.............................................. 173.0 172.5 172.4 176.1 176.5 175.1 197.1 176.2 175.7 176.3 175.7 174.3 198.4 177.1 176.5 175.1 197.1 162.3 177.4 176.8 175.7 199.9 161.5 178.5 177.9 176.8 178.3 177.7 176.4 201.9 164.5 2 0 2 .1 2 0 1 .8 161.5 174.2 198.9 161.2 176.6 176.0 174.5 198.2 162.1 178.3 177.7 176.7 162.0 175.9 175.3 174.0 198.5 162.0 164.8 165.2 167.0 216.2 166.1 217.5 166.4 216.2 166.9 218.0 167.2 222.9 166.3 225.7 167.1 166.7 165.6 2 1 0 .8 167.2 222.9 2 2 1 .8 2 2 2 .2 138.4 159.1 155.6 155.4 176.3 138.6 160.4 158.8 155.3 177.6 136.9 160.1 159.6 154.0 139.9 160.3 159.5 155.8 177.2 138.6 160.7 158.2 153.4 178.8 139.1 160.6 158.9 152.9 178.5 139.9 161.3 160.4 155.7 178.5 140.1 161.9 161.3 158.7 177.3 139.6 160.3 159.5 155.2 177.2 139.5 162.1 162.1 157.7 178.9 Other miscellaneous foods1'2 ...................... 109.1 109.7 109.9 1 1 0 .1 1 1 0 .1 1 1 1 .0 110.7 1 1 0 .1 110.9 110.5 110.9 110.5 1 1 2 .1 1 1 1 .6 1 1 0 .0 Food away from home1 ....................................... 173.8 178.2 178.7 179.0 179.4 179.7 180.0 179.8 181.0 181.0 181.4 181.7 113.6 178.8 118.1 183.3 118.9 183.8 119.3 183.4 119.6 184.3 1 2 0 .0 1 2 0 .1 1 2 0 .2 1 2 0 .8 185.5 186.6 186.8 121.3 186.8 1 2 1 .6 184.7 120.7 186.8 1 2 0 .8 184.6 182.1 121.4 187.0 182.4 Other food away from home1,2........................ Alcoholic beverages............................................ Housing.................................................................. 180.5 120.4 185.7 172.1 194.5 175.7 201.9 176.9 202.9 177.0 203.0 176.9 203.5 176.9 203.7 176.9 203.9 177.9 204.9 178.7 205.5 179.9 205.9 179.7 205.9 180.0 206.4 180.9 206.5 181.4 207.2 181.6 207.7 191.5 118.4 199.0 118.4 199.6 2 0 0 .0 2 0 0 .6 201.3 201.9 2 0 2 .6 203.0 203.4 203.7 204.1 204.4 204.8 Lodqinq away from home2 ............................... 117.7 196.4 117.7 109.6 118.0 198.6 120.4 119.0 1 2 2 .2 1 2 2 .6 198.8 198.8 199.0 199.0 125.0 199.4 205.3 125.2 198.0 114.3 198.5 112.3 143.5 126.4 125.0 133.2 123.0 120.9 118.8 112.3 113.7 145.3 128.3 135.8 134.7 123.2 117.3 115.7 106.7 113.9 147.4 130.5 155.7 114.0 152.4 135.7 146.9 142.3 114.0 153.0 136.3 136.1 136.0 123.5 119.4 116.8 113.8 153.6 137.0 167.9 142.6 1 1 1 .0 150.6 121.9 115.2 113.4 105.0 129.6 150.1 121.4 116.1 112.9 106.9 127.2 Services less rent of shelter3 ............................ Services less medical care services................. Energy................................................................ All items less energy......................................... All items less food and energy........................ Commodities less food and energy.............. Energy commodities................................... Services less energy..................................... 191.3 143.6 1 2 2 .0 C O N S U M E R P R IC E IN D E X F O R U R B A N W A G E E A R N E R S A N D C L E R IC A L W O R K E R S Cereals and bakery products.......................... Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs......................... 193.6 161.2 Dairy and related products 1............................. Fruits and vegetables....................................... Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage materials......................................................... Other foods at home......................................... Sugar and sweets........................................... Fats and oils................................................... Other foods..................................................... 167.1 Shelter................................................................. Rent of primary residence................................ Owners' equivalent rent of primary residence3 187.6 195.1 122.9 195.7 196.9 114.0 197.4 Tenants' and household insurance1,2............. Fuels and utilities............................................. Fuels................................................................ Fuel oil and other fuels................................. 106.4 149.5 134.2 129.2 1 1 0 .1 1 1 1 .2 146.5 129.9 114.5 137.6 123.9 123.5 119.8 116.8 143.6 126.7 118.6 133.8 123.9 125.5 122.3 119.3 143.0 126.0 141.5 125.8 126.1 125.8 117.3 109.7 146.2 129.6 111.3 137.4 124.2 119.6 118.2 109.6 1 1 0 .1 Gas (piped) and electricity........................... Household furnishings and operations............ Apparel.................................................................. Men's and boys' apparel................................... Women's and girls' apparel.............................. 108.7 142.9 126.1 115.0 133.4 124.4 123.1 121.7 114.6 132.9 123.7 124.6 122.7 117.2 Infants' and toddlers' apparel1.......................... Footwear........................................................... Transportation........................................................ Private transportation......................................... 130.9 123.1 153.6 150.8 128.6 151.8 149.0 126.8 119.6 153.0 150.2 128.4 121.4 153.1 150.4 129.5 122.3 154.0 151.4 129.7 122.5 154.2 151.6 153.0 150.4 122.4 119.5 154.6 152.0 New and used motor vehicles2 ........................ 101.9 99.4 99.1 99.0 99.0 98.7 98.5 98.2 1 2 1 .2 See footnotes at end of table. 100 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2003 1 2 1 .0 1 2 0 .8 178.5 179.4 178.7 178.1 176.8 202.9 164.6 167.0 178.0 204.4 168.2 2 2 0 .0 165.1 224.3 163.5 225.7 164.4 225.3 167.0 223.8 139.6 161.7 160.9 156.2 179.0 139.7 161.7 162.1 157.6 187.1 139.6 163.0 162.4 156.5 180.5 137.5 162.3 162.3 156.2 179.4 138.9 162.6 162.1 157.7 179.7 115.4 158.9 142.4 129.6 186.9 199.9 1 2 2 .8 1 2 2 .8 1 2 2 .0 122.5 1 2 2 .8 1 2 0 .6 116.4 120.4 116.4 121.5 119.1 114.2 115.0 158.6 142.2 131.6 150.3 121.9 118.7 116.2 110.4 123.6 119.3 158.2 155.7 125.8 119.6 160.3 157.8 125.5 119.8 158.5 155.9 125.7 119.9 156.2 153.3 122.9 118.5 155.7 152.8 120.3 116.9 155.5 152.5 122.9 117.2 157.1 154.2 97.9 98.0 97.7 96.9 96.9 96.3 95.7 143.5 115.7 158.7 141.9 32. Continued—Consumer Price Indexes for All Urban Consumers and for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers: U.S. city average, by expenditure category and commodity or service group [1 9 8 2 -8 4 = 100, unless otherw ise indicated] 2002 Annual average Series New vehicles.............. Used cars and trucks1 Motor fuel....................................................... Gasoline (all types)..................................... Motor vehicle parts and equipment.............. Motor vehicle maintenance and repair......... Public transportation....................................... 2001 2002 Aug. Sept. Oct. 2003 Nov. Dec, Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug 143.2 141.1 139.1 139.8 140.7 141.5 141.7 140.9 140.3 140.4 139.7 139.1 138.4 137.7 159.8 152.8 154.2 153.1 151.5 149.7 149.3 149.2 149.2 149.2 149.2 148.7 148.1 146.4 144.0 124.9 117.0 116.4 1 2 1 .8 1 2 2 .1 124.9 124.8 1 2 0 .0 1 2 1 .6 106.7 192.9 124.4 106.2 119.4 106.3 140.8 140.2 107.1 131.5 130.9 107.2 195.0 199.2 148.5 147.8 107.2 196.0 196.5 208.5 130.9 130.4 107.0 197.7 2 0 2 .0 196.3 203.0 130.4 129.8 107.1 196.8 201.9 124.3 106.5 194.3 198.5 140.9 140.3 107.5 196.2 199.8 139.4 121.3 107.0 192.5 204.5 126.7 126.1 107.1 195.4 198.1 2 1 0 .8 2 1 2 .8 138.9 107.3 197.3 210.5 290.6 254.0 299.5 259.2 379.1 291.8 293.0 293.5 295.5 256.7 297.4 255.1 302.3 261.0 384.8 294.6 256.4 296.7 254.8 300.9 260.0 382.2 293.7 256.2 258.2 303.0 261.9 384.9 304.1 263.3 385.0 305.1 263.5 388.1 306.3 264.1 390.9 258.6 307.0 263.9 394.2 105.4 105.5 105.7 124.2 104.0 185.1 204.9 106.1 191.7 2 0 2 .6 193.3 199.2 137.9 Medical care commodities.............................. Medical care services..................................... Professional services.................................... Hospital and related services....................... 278.5 248.7 333.8 284.6 251.1 292.5 256.0 363.2 372.6 289.6 253.5 298.4 258.7 376.7 Recreation2 ....................................................... 103.6 104.6 104.7 104.4 194.6 104.5 104.7 105.1 105.4 256.1 302.7 261.3 385.3 105.4 105.5 105.6 Video and audio 1,2 ........................................ 100.9 1 0 2 .0 1 0 1 .6 101.4 1 0 1 .8 1 0 2 .2 102.4 102.7 103.0 102.9 103.0 103.0 102.9 102.9 102.9 Education and communication2 ....................... . Education2 ...................................................... Educational books and supplies................ 105.3 107.6 108.6 109.1 109.0 108.8 108.8 109.2 109.2 108.9 108.4 108.0 107.8 108.2 109.1 118.7 299.9 125.9 318.5 126.9 320.4 129.3 323.9 129.6 324.2 129.7 325.0 129.7 324.5 130.3 330.6 130.7 333.6 130.8 333.9 130.9 333.4 131.1 333.6 131.8 335.5 132.3 336.3 135.5 339.6 334.7 94.5 354.8 93.7 357.7 94.6 364.9 93.9 365.7 93.6 366.0 93.3 366.0 93.2 367.2 93.5 368.0 93.4 368.2 92.8 368.8 92.0 369.3 91.3 371.1 90.7 372.6 90.9 382.1 90.5 Medical care....................................................... Tuition, other school fees, and child care.. Communication1,2 ......................................... Information and information processing1,2. 271.8 242.7 286.3 286.7 252.3 294.5 256.9 367.1 252.5 294.9 256.8 368.9 296.9 258.2 288.3 252.8 93.8 92.7 93.4 92.4 92.4 Telephone services 1,2 ............................. Information and information processing 99.4 99.9 1 0 0 .8 100.3 1 0 0 .2 other than telenhone services 1,4 Personal computers and peripheral 2 2 .1 19.0 18.9 18.5 12 18.3 92.0 1 0 0 .1 17.9 93.0 1 0 0 .1 17.8 92.3 92.2 91.6 90.7 90.0 89.6 89.6 89.1 100.7 100.7 99.9 98.9 98.3 97.7 98.3 98.0 17.7 17.5 17.4 17.4 17.0 16.8 16.5 16.3 equipment ' .................................... Other goods and services................................. Tobacco and smoking products.................... 29.1 2 1 .8 21.7 2 0 .8 20.4 19.7 19.3 19.1 18.6 18.6 18.5 17.8 16.9 16.9 16.3 289.5 426.1 302.0 463.2 306.0 480.7 307.8 488.4 304.9 305.1 305.6 306.4 306.0 306.0 307.5 308.0 474.3 305.6 474.3 306.4 473.1 305.0 472.8 474.8 469.1 469.8 464.8 464.8 470.5 473.2 Personal care 1 ................................................ 170.3 174.1 174.3 174.4 174.8 174.9 174.7 175.2 175.7 176.1 176.7 176.9 177.2 177.5 177.4 Personal care products 1............................. 155.7 155.5 155.1 155.2 155.5 155.0 154.2 154.8 154.0 153.8 154.2 154.4 154.8 154.3 Personal care services1.............................. Miscellaneous personal services................ Commodity and service group: 184.9 189.1 190.6 190.7 192.4 276.6 276.7 279.9 281.1 281.6 193.6 282.4 193.5 275.9 189.1 277.9 191.6 274.0 190.0 274.9 190.1 262.8 189.8 275.2 154.6 193.2 283.9 193.9 284.0 194.6 284.4 Commodities..................................................... Food and beverages...................................... Commodities less food and beverages......... Nondurables less food and beverages....... 151.4 173.0 138.7 149.0 151.4 176.3 136.9 159.6 123.5 125.5 151.3 176.6 136.5 150.2 124.6 150.3 177.1 135.0 147.3 120.9 150.7 177.4 135.5 148.3 117.3 152.8 178.3 138.0 153.8 119.4 154.0 178.5 139.6 157.3 122.5 153.0 178.3 138..2 154.8 126.1 150.4 175.9 135.6 147.7 119.6 151.0 176.2 136.4 149.4 Apparel....................................................... Nondurables less food, beverages, and apparel.............................................. Durables....................................................... 150.4 176.1 135.5 147.0 123.1 1 2 2 .8 151.6 178.7 136.0 151.1 121.5 151.1 179.5 135.0 149.6 118.7 150.7 179.6 134.2 148.7 115.2 151.6 180.2 135.4 151.7 116.1 166.3 125.3 165.3 168.5 121.3 169.1 169.7 169.6 1 2 1 .1 1 2 1 .0 1 2 0 .6 167.2 120.4 171.0 1 2 1 .8 1 2 0 .1 178.7 119.9 182.6 119.8 178.3 119.4 173.0 118.8 172.3 118.3 173.0 117.6 177.4 116.9 Services............................................................ 199.6 205.9 207.3 207.6 207.8 208.1 208.3 209.4 2 1 0 .2 2 1 1 .2 211.3 2 1 2 .0 212.9 213.6 214.0 Rent of shelter3 ............................................. Transporatation services.............................. Other services............................................... 187.3 199.1 233.7 194.5 207.7 241.6 195.5 208.6 243.4 195.5 208.8 244.1 196.1 196.3 211.7 245.1 197.3 244.6 196.2 211.4 244.8 246.2 197.9 213.2 247.1 198.3 213.9 247.0 198.3 215.0 246.8 198.8 216.1 246.8 198.9 216.7 247.2 199.5 217.4 247.9 216.8 249.3 All items less food......................................... All items less shelter..................................... All items less medical care........................... Commodities less food................................. Nondurables less food.................................. Nondurables less food and apparel............. Nondurables.................................................. 173.6 167.6 169.1 140.2 150.8 166.7 161.4 175.8 168.3 171.1 137.3 149.2 166.1 161.4 176.7 168.9 171.8 137.4 149.8 169.2 162.2 177.1 169.5 172.2 138.1 151.5 169.6 163.2 177.5 169.7 172.5 138.6 152.6 179.3 163.9 177.5 169.7 172.5 138.3 152.3 170.2 163.9 177.0 169.1 172.1 136.8 149.6 168.0 162.6 177.7 169.7 172.7 137.1 150.5 171.6 163.2 179.3 171.5 174.2 139.7 155.8 178.7 166.5 180.6 172.9 175.4 141.4 159.2 182.3 168.5 180.0 172.2 174.8 140.0 156.8 178.4 167.1 179.5 171.4 174.4 137.9 153.2 173.5 165.3 179.5 171.7 174.5 136.9 151.8 172.8 164.9 179.6 171.5 174.5 136.1 151.0 173.5 164.6 180.3 172.3 175.2 137.2 151.0 177.5 166.4 Services less rent of shelter3 ........................ Services less medical care services............ Energy........................................................... All items less energy..................................... All items less food and energy................... Commodities less food and energy......... Energy commodities.............................. Services less energy................................ 188.5 193.1 194.9 195.3 203.1 2 0 0 .6 1 2 2 .2 204.7 133.2 185.9 188.0 142.2 132.3 219.6 205.2 135.6 185.9 187.7 141.3 131.0 219.8 206.2 135.9 185.9 187.7 140.3 131.4 220.5 206.6 140.0 186.2 187.9 1 2 1 .8 199.7 204.0 137.7 185.8 188.0 143.0 141.7 219.0 2 0 2 .8 200.4 125.0 183.8 186.0 143.7 195.6 200.9 124.8 184.8 187.0 144.1 125.2 216.5 2 0 2 .2 198.9 120.9 183.6 185.6 144.4 17.3 213.9 195.2 200.7 125.2 184.7 200.4 193.1 128.7 179.8 181.7 146.1 125.3 206.0 2 1 0 .0 2 1 2 .2 2 0 0 .0 Special indexes: 1 Not seasonally adjusted. 2 Indexes on a December 1997 - 100 base. 3 Indexes on a December 1982 = 100 base. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 215.1 125.3 184.3 186.5 144.4 215.4 186.9 144.5 125.1 216.1 195.9 196.9 197.9 199.5 2 0 1 .1 2 0 2 .1 1 2 2 .6 126.9 184.8 186.9 142.2 127.6 217.7 202.9 135.1 185.5 187.5 142.6 142.1 204.0 142.2 185.9 188.0 143.1 150.0 218.8 184.6 186.7 143.1 120.7 216.7 I 218.5 140.1 139.5 2 2 1 .0 Indexes on a December 1988 - 100 base. Dash indicates data not available. NOTE: Index applied to a month as a whole, not to any specific date. 4 Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 101 Current Labor Statistics: 33. Price Data C o n s u m e r P rice In d e x : U.S. c ity a v e r a g e a n d a v a ila b le lo c a l a r e a d a ta : a ll item s [1982-84 = 100, unless otherwise indicated] Pricing All Urban Consumers schedule1 U.S. city average............................................. M Urban Wage Earners 2003 Mar. 184.2 Apr. May 183.8 2003 June 183.5 183.7 July 183.9 Aug. 184.6 Mar. 180.3 Apr. 179.8 May 179.4 June 179.6 July Aug. 179.6 180.3 R e g io n a n d a r e a s iz e 2 Northeast urban...................................................... M 193.0 192.6 192.7 192.8 193.5 194.3 189.8 189.4 189.2 189.2 190.0 190.7 Size A— More than 1,500,000.......................... M 194.6 194.4 194.6 194.9 195.5 196.6 190.0 189.8 189.8 190.0 190.8 191.8 114.5 Size B/C— 50,000 to 1,500.0003...................... M 115.0 114.4 114.2 113.9 114.5 114.4 115.2 114.5 114.2 113.9 114.5 Midwest urban 4 ........................................................ Size A— More than 1,500,000........................... M 178.6 177.8 177.7 178.4 178.1 178.8 174.1 173.1 172.9 173.7 173.3 174.1 M 180.7 179.7 179.7 180.7 180.5 181.2 175.4 174.3 174.2 175.1 174.8 175.5 Size B/C— 50,000 to 1,500,0003...................... Size D— Nonmetropolitan (less than 50,000). M 113.6 113.2 113.0 113.2 113.1 113.6 113.1 1 1 2 .6 112.4 112.7 112.5 113.0 M 173.0 171.7 171.7 172.6 171.4 172.1 170.6 169.3 169.3 170.1 169.1 169.8 South urban............................................................ . M 177.5 177.4 176.8 177.2 177.3 177.9 175.0 174.7 174.0 174.3 174.3 Size A— More than 1,500,000........................... 174.8 M 179.1 178.9 178.6 179.0 179.1 179.8 176.5 176.3 175.7 176.2 176.2 177.0 Size B/C— 50,000 to 1,500.0003...................... Size D— Nonmetropolitan (less than 50,000). M 113.3 113.3 1 1 2 .8 113.1 113.1 113.4 112.5 112.3 1 1 1 .8 1 1 2 .0 111.9 1 1 2 .1 M 175.4 175.5 174.7 174.9 175.0 175.9 175.7 175.4 174.6 174.8 West urban.............................................................. 174.6 174.5 M 189.3 188.8 188.5 188.1 188.4 189.2 184.7 184.2 183.8 183.3 183.4 184.2 Size A— More than 1,500,000........................... M 192.1 191.7 191.2 190.9 190.9 191.7 185.9 185.4 185.0 184.5 154.3 185.3 Size B/C— 50,000 to 1,500,000s...................... M 115.4 114.9 114.7 114.4 115.1 115.5 115.1 114.7 114.4 114.1 114.6 114.8 M M M 168.4 114.0 176.9 168.0 113.7 176.3 167.9 113.4 176.1 168.2 113.4 176.4 168.3 113.6 184.1 169.0 113.9 177.1 166.8 113.5 175.6 166.3 113.1 174.9 166.1 112.7 174.5 166.3 1 1 2 .8 166.3 112.9 174.4 167.2 113.1 175.3 178.3 Size classes: A5 ............................................. B/C D.... 174.9 S e le c t e d lo c a l a r e a s 6 Chicago-G ary-Kenosha, IL -IN -W I....................................... M 184.8 183.4 183.4 184.1 184.1 184.5 179.0 177.4 177.3 Los Angeles-R iverside-O range County, CA........................ 178.0 177.8 M 188.2 187.6 186.4 186.3 186.3 186.9 181.6 180.9 179.9 179.6 179.6 180.5 New York, NY-Northern NJ-Long Island, N Y -N J-C T -P A . M 197.1 196.7 196.8 196.9 197.7 199.1 192.1 191.8 191.7 191.9 192.8 194.1 Boston-Brockton-Nashua, M A -N H -M E -C T ....................... 1 2 0 2 .8 - 202.3 - 203.0 - 202.3 - 2 0 1 .8 _ 2 0 2 .2 _ Cleveland-Akron, O H............................................................... 1 175.4 - 175.1 - 176.0 - 167.1 - 166.3 - 167.0 _ D allas-Ft Worth, T X .................................................................. 1 176.8 - 176.9 - 176.5 - 176.5 - 176.4 - 175.9 W ashington-Baltimore, D C -M D -V A -W V 7 ........................... 1 115.9 - 115.7 - 116.8 - 115.5 - 115.1 - 116.2 Atlanta, G A.................................................................................. 2 - 182.1 - 181.5 - 179.7 - 179.2 - 178.7 _ - 179.4 Detroit-Ann Arbor-Flint, M l..................................................... 2 - 182.2 - 182.8 - 183.6 - 176.4 - 176.7 - 177.5 Houston-G alveston-Brazoria, TX.......................................... 2 - 162.5 - 162.5 - 164.1 - 160.9 - 160.7 - M iam i-Ft. Lauderdale, FL........................................................ 162.5 2 - 180.6 - 179.4 - 180.9 - 178.4 - 176.8 - 178.3 Philadelphia-W ilmington-Atlantic City, P A -N J-D E -M D .... 2 - 187.2 - 189.7 - 191.1 - 186.3 - 187.8 - 189.2 San Francisco-O akland-San Jose, CA................................. 2 - 197.3 - 196.3 - 196.3 - 193.6 - 192.2 - 192.3 Seattle-Tacom a-Brem erton, W A........................................... 2 - 192.3 - 191.7 - 194.4 - 187 - 185.7 - 188.2 AK; goods and services priced as indicated: M— Every month. C in c in n a ti O H -K Y -IN ; Kansas City, M O-KS; Milwaukee-Racine, W Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-W I; Pittsburgh, PA; Port-land-Salem, O R-W A; St Louis MO-IL; San Diego, CA; Tam pa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL. 1— January, March, May, July, September, and November. 2— February, April, June, August, October, and December. 7 Indexes on a November 1996 = 100 base. NOTE: Local area CPI indexes are byproducts of the national CPI program. Each Iocs 2 Regions defined as the four Census regions. 3 Indexes on a December 1996 = 100 base. and other measurement error. As a result, local area indexes show greater volatility tha 4 The "North Central" region has been renamed the "Midwest" region by the Census the national index, although their long-term trends are similar. Therefore, the Bureau c index has a smaller sample size and is, therefore, subject to substantially more samplin Bureau. It is composed of the same geographic entities. Labor Statistics strongly urges users to consider adopting the national average CPI fc 5 Indexes on a December 1986 = 100 base. 6 In addition, the following metropolitan areas are published semiannually and appear in tables 34 and 39 of the January and July issues of the CPI 102 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis D e ta ile d R e p o r t: use in their escalator clauses. Index applies to a month as a whole, not to any specifi date. Anchorage, Dash indicates data not available. O ctober 2003 34. A n n u a l d a ta : C o n s u m e r P rice In d e x , U.S. c ity a v e r a g e , a ll item s a n d m a jo r g ro u p s [1982-84 = 100]________________________________________________ ____________________ Series Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers: All Items: Index................................................................................ Percent change............................................................. Food and beverages: Index................................................................................ Percent change.................................................. .......... Housing: Index............................................................................... Percent change............................................................. Apparel: Index............................................................................... Percent change............................................................. Transportation: Index............................................................................... Percent change............................................................. Medical care: Index................................................................................ Percent change............................................................. Other goods and services: Index.............................................................................. Percent change............................................................. Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers: All items: Index............................................................................... Percent change............................................................. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 1993 144.5 3.0 1994 1995 148.2 152.4 2 .6 2 .8 1996 156.9 3.0 1997 160.5 2.3 1999 1998 163.0 166.6 1 .6 2 .2 2000 2001 172.2 3.4 177.1 2002 179.9 2 .8 1 .6 168.4 2.3 173.6 3.1 176.8 153.7 3.2 157.7 161.1 164.6 2 .6 2 .2 2 .2 152.8 2.9 156.8 160.4 2.3 163.9 169.6 3.5 176.4 4.0 180.3 2 .2 132.0 - 1 .0 131.7 132.9 .9 133.0 131.3 -1 .3 129.6 -1 .3 127.3 - 1 .8 124.0 - 2 .6 134.3 3.0 139.1 3.6 143.0 144.3 0.9 141.6 -1 .9 144.4 153.3 2 .0 6 .2 154.3 0.7 152.9 - .9 201.4 5.9 2 1 1 .0 220.5 4.5 228.2 3.5 234.6 4.8 2 .8 242.1 3.2 250.6 3.5 260.8 4.1 272.8 4.6 285.6 4.7 192.9 5.2 198.5 2.9 206.9 4.2 215.4 4.1 224.8 4.4 237.7 5.7 258.3 8.7 271.1 5.0 282.6 4.2 293.2 3.8 142.1 145.6 2.5 149.8 2.9 154.1 2.9 157.6 2.3 159.7 1.3 163.2 168.9 3.5 173.5 2.7 175.9 1.4 144.9 2.3 148.9 141.2 2.7 144.8 2.5 148.5 133.7 1.4 133.4 130.4 3.1 141.6 2 .1 2 .8 -.2 2 .8 2 .6 -.2 2 .8 2 .6 .1 2 .2 Monthly Labor Review 1 .8 2 .2 O ctober 2003 103 Current Labor Statistics: 35. Price Data P ro d u cer Price In d exes, b y s ta g e of processing [1982 = 100] Grouping Annual average 2001 Finished goods..................................... 2002 2002 Aug. Sept. 2003 Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May Junep July” 142.0 143.7 144.6 143.1 145.1 145.3 143.0 145.0 145.0 143.5 143.5 146.9 132.5 139.1 143.0 146.3 132.4 139.0 144.7 149.0 131.8 139.0 144 7 149.1 131.6 139.3 145 1 149 7 131 6 139.3 136.2 133.0 132.5 133.4 133.7 134.0 129.5 129.6 138.1 126.8 125.8 130.1 129.0 140.1 126.9 126.0 129.4 129.6 137.6 126.7 126.0 129.3 130.8 137.0 128.8 126.1 129 6 1344 137 0 127.3 125.9 129 4 133 7 136 6 127 3 126.0 130 152.9 108.1 153.9 141.5 153.2 111.5 153.9 141.4 153 7 113.0 153.7 141.6 153 7 113 6 153.6 141.4 131 4 111 5 142.9 Finished consumer goods.................. Finished consumer foods....................... 140.7 141.5 141.3 138.8 139.4 140.0 138.8 139.6 139.3 139.1 140.0 138.7 140.7 141.6 139.2 139.7 140.4 139.2 139.0 139.6 139.5 140.8 141.9 142.0 142.3 144.0 142.3 144.2 146.3 142.8 142.1 143.8 144.0 Finshed consumer goods excluding foods................................. Nondurable goods less food................ Durable goods....................................... Capital equipment............................. 141.4 142.8 133.9 139.7 138.8 139.8 133.0 139.1 139.3 141.5 131.0 138.2 140.2 142.8 131.1 138.3 142.2 143.8 134.8 139.9 140.5 142.0 133.6 139.5 139.3 140.6 132.8 139.1 141.6 143.8 133.2 139.3 144.4 147.9 133.1 139.2 147.4 151.7 134.4 139.9 Intermediate materials, supplies, and components.................. 128.7 127.8 128.4 129.3 129.7 129.7 129.4 131.1 133.5 Materials and components for manufacturing....................................... Materials for food manufacturing............. Materials for nondurable manufacturing.. Materials for durable manufacturing........ Components for manufacturing............... 127.4 124.3 131.8 125.2 126.3 126.1 123.2 129.2 124.7 126.1 126.5 123.1 130.3 125.3 125.9 126.9 123.9 131.5 125.9 125.9 127.4 124.3 132.9 125.9 125.8 127.6 125.0 132.8 126.3 126.0 127.2 126.9 131.4 126.2 125.9 127.9 128.9 133.4 126.1 125.8 Materials and components for construction...................................... Processed fuels and lubricants.................. Containers.................................. Supplies................................................... 150.6 104.5 153.1 138.6 151.3 96.3 152.1 138.9 152.1 97.6 151.5 139.3 152.1 151.7 151.2 121.3 106.2 127.3 108.1 99.5 111.4 108.7 99.7 Finished goods, excluding foods................ Finished energy goods..................... Finished goods less energy........................ Finished consumer goods less energy...... Finished goods less food and energy........ 140.4 96.8 147.5 150.8 150.0 138.3 Finished consumer goods less food and energy................................................ Consumer nondurable goods less food and energy.............................................. Crude materials for further processing......................................... Foodstuffs and feedstuffs.......................... Crude nonfood materials............................. 1 0 1 .6 1 0 1 .2 153.3 139.5 153.4 139.6 151.1 100.9 153.2 139.6 151.4 106.9 153.4 140.1 152.1 113.6 153.7 140.7 152.3 124.8 153.8 141.2 152.9 1 0 0 .6 152.5 139.6 110.9 100.7 115.4 1 1 2 .6 1 1 2 .1 99.9 119.0 116.1 99.4 125.3 118.1 100.5 128.2 127.3 105.6 140.4 134.0 106.3 151.7 152.2 105.7 184.4 128.0 107.0 140.6 147.3 150.8 150.2 138.4 91.3 146.5 150.0 149.3 139.0 93.0 146.4 149.9 149.5 140.8 94.5 147.9 151.3 151.3 139.6 91.3 147.6 151.0 150.9 138.7 90.7 147.0 150.2 149.9 140.3 95.3 147.9 151.5 150.3 142.1 101.7 147.9 151.6 151.0 144.3 107.4 148.6 152.3 151.0 156.9 157.6 156.8 157.1 159.1 158.6 157.2 157.7 157.6 175.1 177.5 177.9 178.3 178.5 178.9 176.7 177.4 177.3 128.5 115.5 95.9 134.5 129.0 116.8 97.0 135.0 130.0 118.0 100.4 135.3 130.4 117.4 j 130.3 117.5 130.0 118.8 137.0 1 2 1 .0 1 0 1 .0 1 0 0 .0 135.4 ! 135.5 135.5 131.7 120.4 105.8 136.1 1 2 1 .2 j 113.2 137.1 124.2 137.6 136.7 136.6 137.1 138.1 1 2 0 .0 124.0 110.5 139.9 140.1 115.1 143.0 153.9 116.9 148.3 1 1 0 .8 154.0 141.3 Aug. 145 7 146.2 0 127 9 125.9 130.9 136.8 1 1 1 .0 1 1 0 .0 142.4 153.7 133.0 107 4 149.1 148.2 152.1 150.0 141.1 98.9 148.3 152.3 150.0 142.2 103.5 148.3 152.3 149.7 142.3 103.5 148.3 152 2 149.8 142 6 104.3 148 7 15? 7 149.9 158.4 157.4 157.4 157.0 156.9 157.0 177.7 177.5 177.6 177.4 177.5 177.6 133.7 133.1 1 2 1 .2 1 2 2 .8 1 1 0 .1 137.3 107.1 137.5 133.9 125.1 110.5 137.6 1342 124.8 112.3 137.5 134 6 125 1 113 5 137.7 138.7 138.4 138.5 138.5 138.4 138.6 2 0 0 .2 138.8 117.0 146.7 141.4 146.5 157.9 118.9 145.4 151.0 117.3 146.5 139 9 121.7 146.5 Special groupings: 8 8 .8 I Intermediate materials less foods and feeds........................................ Intermediate foods and feeds..................... Intermediate energy goods........................ Intermediate goods less energy................. 130.5 115.9 104.1 135.1 Intermediate materials less foods and energy..................................... 136.4 135.8 136.2 136.5 136.6 1 2 2 .8 1 0 2 .0 1 0 1 .2 105.9 1 1 2 .2 108.7 135.7 1 1 0 .0 1 1 0 .6 140.3 140.0 111.3 j 109.9 139.3 I Crude energy materials............................... Crude materials less energy................... Crude nonfood materials less energy........ 104 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 130.6 October 2003 1 0 1 .6 j 109.8 139.8 134.2 116.5 148.1 141.5 1 0 0 .0 1 2 0 .0 36. Producer Price Ind exes for th e n et output of m a jo r industry groups [December 1984 = 100, unless otherwise indicated] _ 10 12 13 14 _ 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 2001 2002 2003 2002 Annual average Industry SIC Aug. Sept. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May 113.8 126.0 137.4 169.1 124.5 126.3 138.3 133.2 125.2 74.5 93.1 133.9 78.0. 93.2 152.5 78.5 93.4 170.2 76.8 93.7 77.8 94.6 152.7 79.1 94.1 171.3 78.7 93.4 163.6 80.6 94.0 150.7 Oct. Nov. Dec. 104.5 110.5 74.2 93.6 128.8 Junep July15 Aug.p T o ta l m in in g in d u s tr ie s ............................................ 114.3 96.6 95.9 Metal mining..................................................... Coal mining (12/85 - 100).............................. Oil and gas extraction (12/85 - 100).............. Mining and quarrying of nonmetallic minerals, except fuels.................................... 70.8 91.3 127.5 93.6 93.9 107.0 73.2 93.4 106.0 1 1 2 .8 72.8 93.4 119.5 2 2 0 .0 73.9 94.8 150.2 141.0 143.5 143.5 143.5 143.7 143.8 144.2 144.9 145.4 145.9 146.3 146.4 146.7 146.7 146.7 133.7 132.0 401.9 115.8 133.7 131.3 408.5 115.5 135.0 136.1 408.5 115.6 135.6 131.6 408.6 115.6 134.6 131.6 409.2 115.8 134.0 132.6 380.3 116.1 135.7 133.9 379.7 115.3 137.6 134.5 379.8 115.2 138.7 134.8 380.9 115.1 136.3 135.1 375.5 115.2 135.8 135.7 376.4 115.3 136.2 137.3 376.1 115.5 136.5 137.2 376.3 115.4 137.0 137.7 376.3 115.7 125.8 125.1 125.3 125.1 125.1 125.1 124.8 124.7 124.7 124.9 124.9 124.9 124.9 124.9 124.9 156.2 145.1 146.2 155.3 146.3 143.7 155.9 146.6 143.5 155.3 147.0 144.1 154.6 147.2 144.6 154.1 147.0 145.1 154.2 146.8 144.9 154.4 147.0 144.8 155.7 147.1 144.9 155.3 147.2 144.9 156.0 147.3 145.1 156.4 147.4 145.3 157.3 147.5 145.0 160.3 147.5 144.8 160.9 147.5 144.7 T o ta l m a n u fa c tu r in g in d u s trie s ............................ Food and kindred products............................. Tobacco manufactures.................................... Textile mill products......................................... Apparel and other finished products made from fabrics and similar materials...... Lumber and wood products, except furniture.............................................. Furniture and fixtures....................................... Paper and allied products............................... 134.6 132.8 386.1 116.9 1 0 0 .1 73.6 92.8 27 Printing, publishing, and allied industries....... 188.7 193.0 193.2 193.4 193.6 194.0 194.1 196.4 196.7 196.7 197.0 197.3 197.2 197.2 197.8 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 Chemicals and allied products........................ Petroleum refining and related products........ Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products. Leather and leather products.......................... Stone, clay, glass, and concrete products..... Primary metal industries.................................. Fabricated metal products, except machinery and transportation equipment............................. 158.4 105.3 125.9 141.3 136.0 116.1 157.3 98.8 125.5 141.1 137.1 116.2 158.6 103.2 125.9 142.0 137.4 117.1 158.7 109.6 126.3 141.9 137.6 117.9 159.5 117.5 126.3 141.8 137.4 118.0 159.7 106.7 125.8 142.1 137.3 118.3 159.3 102.4 125.8 142.5 137.3 118.1 160.9 116.5 126.3 142.4 137.6 117.9 162.3 138.0 127.2 142.4 137.8 118.0 165.2 145.9 128.1 142.4 137.7 118.0 166.7 118.7 129.1 142.7 138.1 117.8 165.8 129.2 142.2 138.0 117.8 165.2 115.4 129.0 141.8 137.7 118.3 164.9 118.1 128.8 142.4 138.2 117.6 164.5 124.0 128.8 142.5 138.0 118.1 131.0 131.7 132.0 132.1 132.1 132.0 132.2 132.4 132.5 132.7 132.7 132.7 132.7 132.9 132.9 116.1 116.0 35 36 37 38 39 Electrical and electronic machinery, equipment, and supplies.............................. Measuring and controlling instruments; photographic, medical, and optical goods; watches and clocks.......................... Miscellaneous manufacturing industries industries (12/85 - 100)................................ 1 1 1 .0 118.0 117.2 116.8 116.8 116.8 116.6 116.5 116.5 116.2 116.0 116.1 116.0 116.2 107.0 137.9 105.7 137.3 105.5 135.0 105.4 135.1 105.1 139.4 105.0 138.3 104.3 137.6 104.2 138.1 103.8 138.3 104.0 139.8 104.0 137.5 104.0 137.5 103.6 136.7 103.7 136.6 102.5 137.0 127.3 128.5 128.4 128.7 128.8 128.8 128.8 129.4 129.8 129.7 129.9 129.8 130.0 130.0 130.0 132.4 133.3 133.4 133.5 133.6 133.5 133.8 133.7 134.0 133.8 133.9 133.9 133.9 134.3 134.3 123.1 143.4 129.8 157.2 110.3 124.5 150.2 134.6 157.8 111.9 125.0 155.0 135.3 158.0 112.5 125.1 155.0 139.0 158.6 112.5 125.5 155.0 141.0 160.1 112.7 125.9 155.0 141.3 159.4 112.3 125.9 155.0 142.2 159.8 126.5 155.0 142.9 161.4 126.8 155.0 140.7 160.2 127.3 155.0 140.9 161.8 127.4 155.0 139.9 162.2 127.4 155.0 147.6 162.0 1 1 1 .8 1 1 0 .6 1 1 0 .6 1 1 1 .0 1 1 0 .6 1 1 1 .8 127.5 155.0 147.8 162.4 111.9 127.8 155.0 151.1 163.3 111.9 128.3 155.0 151.1 162.9 111.9 S e r v ic e in d u s trie s : 42 43 44 45 46 Motor freight transportation and warehousing (06/93 = 100).................... Water transportation (12/92 = 100)................. Transportation by air (12/92 = 100)................. Pipelines, except natural aas (12/92 = 100).... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 105 Current Labor Statistics: 37. Price Data Annual data: Producer Price Indexes, by stage of processing [1982 = 100] Index 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 Finished goods Total................................................... Foods............................................................. Energy................................................ Other......................................................... 124.7 125.7 78.0 135.8 126.8 77.0 137.1 116.2 115.6 84.6 123.8 118.5 118.5 83.0 127.1 102.4 108.4 76.7 94.1 1 0 1 .8 130.7 75.1 143.7 133.0 135.1 78.8 146.1 138.0 137.2 94.1 148.0 140.7 141.3 96.8 150.0 138.8 140.0 123.2 129.2 119.2 101.7 136.6 129.7 124.3 104.1 136.4 127.8 123.3 95.9 135.8 1 2 0 .6 121.3 106.2 108.1 99.5 8 8 .8 150.2 Intermediate materials, supplies, and components Total........................................................... Foods............................................................ Energy................................................. Other.............................................. 123.0 1 2 0 .8 84.1 133.5 84.3 133.1 84.5 98.2 98.7 78.5 91.1 Crude materials for further processing Total............................................................... Foods...................................................... Energy....................................................... Other....................................................... 38. 106.5 72.1 97.0 105.8 105.7 103.5 1 0 0 .2 1 2 2 .1 1 2 2 .8 1 0 1 .8 118.0 1 0 1 .8 1 0 0 .8 U.S. e x p o rt p ric e in d exes b y S tan d ard Intern atio nal T rade Classification [2000 = 100] S IT C 0 2002 Industry R ev. 3 Aug. F o o d a n d liv e a n im a ls ........................................................... 04 05 Meat and meat preparations............................................ Cereals and cereal preparations.................................... Vegetables, fruit, and nuts, prepared fresh or dry.......... 2 C r u d e m a te r ia ls , in e d ib le , e x c e p t fu e ls ................................ 01 22 24 25 26 28 Oilseeds and oleaginous fruits................................ Cork and wood........................................ Pulp and waste paper........................................... Textile fibers and their waste....................................... Metalliferous ores and metal scrap......................... Sept. 2003 Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. 106.1 95.4 123.2 97.4 103.4 88.7 119.9 98.2 107.7 89.8 133.4 98.9 106.4 89.1 130.5 97.8 106.7 87.8 131.7 98.9 105.8 90.3 126.3 98.3 105.6 90.4 123.0 97.9 113.5 97.3 114.1 90.0 86.5 94.2 93.9 96.8 107.2 90.7 88.5 94.2 94.1 98.3 116.9 90.7 87.8 96.4 91.8 98.5 116.2 90.3 85.2 98.3 96.3 99.8 119.4 90.9 82.6 116.6 91.1 86.4 1 0 0 .2 1 0 1 .6 99.6 1 0 2 .8 104.5 114.0 99.6 99.5 113.7 92.2 1 1 2 .0 113.7 108.1 96.8 96.6 97.9 1 0 1 .2 1 0 1 .2 97.2 93.5 97.7 98.5 97.3 92.9 95.9 98.8 8 8 .8 89.6 93.1 97.9 1 0 1 .2 107.4 109.4 115.7 98.2 104.3 124.8 90.7 85.4 106.2 114.7 102.4 109.2 91.0 85.8 107.0 119.9 Aug. 95.1 96.0 108.0 101.5 124.2 96.9 104.6 102.3 116.6 91.2 88.9 105.0 105.8 103.6 118.9 91.3 90.4 106.0 107.8 104.5 127.4 91.0 89.9 104.2 105.8 103.9 122.7 90.4 90.1 103.2 109.0 124.1 113.7 122.9 130.1 113.9 130.2 107.5 111.9 102.5 107.8 109.8 114.7 1 1 2 .2 1 1 2 .1 1 1 1 .1 1 1 1 .1 1 0 0 .6 95.4 95.1 97.1 99.2 104.1 96.0 97.1 97.5 1 0 0 .6 1 0 0 .6 5 C h e m ic a ls a n d re la te d p ro d u c ts , n .e .s ................................. 54 Medicinal and pharmaceutical products........................... 55 Essential oils; polishing and cleaning preparations......... 57 Plastics in primary form s.......................................... 58 Plastics in nonprimary forms................................... 59 Chemical materials and products, n.e.s........................... 96.4 101.3 97.5 93.1 96.5 98.2 96.8 101.3 97.4 92.9 96.9 98.3 97.1 101.3 97.3 97.3 97.6 98.6 M a n u fa c tu r e d g o o d s c la s s ifie d c h ie fly b y m a te ria ls ..... 99.0 99.1 99.1 99.0 99.0 99.0 Rubber manufactures, n.e.s....................................... Paper, paperboard, and articles of paper, pulo. and oaoerboard.................................................... Nonmetallic mineral manufactures, n.e.s......................... Nonferrous metals...................................... 105.1 205.9 105.7 105.4 105.6 7 M a c h in e r y a n d tr a n s p o r t e q u ip m e n t...................................... 71 Power generating machinery and equipment.................. 72 Machinery specialized for particular industries................ 74 General industrial machines and parts, n.e.s., and machine parts.................................. 75 Computer equipment and office machines...................... 76 Telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment......................... 77 Electrical machinery and equipment...................... 78 Road vehicles..................................................... 107.2 105.2 115.4 July 105.5 97.9 114.0 98.0 66 107.5 102.9 118.5 99.6 June 1 2 0 .0 109.3 114.0 105.8 68 May 105.9 96.4 97.3 114.3 92.0 62 64 Apr. 1 2 2 .2 3 M in e ra l fu e ls , lu b ric a n ts , a n d re la te d p r o d u c ts ............... 32 Coal, coke, and briquettes................................... 33 Petroleum, petroleum products, and related materials... 6 Mar. 1 0 1 .0 1 0 2 .8 96.4 102.7 105.7 1 1 2 .6 1 0 0 .1 104.8 95.3 96.6 98.8 105.8 97.4 95.0 98.5 100 5 105.5 97.5 94.9 98.6 1 0 0 .6 100.9 103.9 95.2 97.6 98.5 100.9 1 0 0 .8 104.1 96.2 99.5 97.2 100.7 101.4 103.9 95.3 100.5 98.4 101.5 1 0 1 .6 1 0 2 .1 1 0 2 .2 99.4 99.4 99.8 99.7 1 0 0 .0 99.9 107.1 108.8 108.4 108.6 108.5 1 1 0 .1 1 1 0 .1 109.3 96.7 97.3 100.3 79.4 98.3 100.4 80.3 98.1 100.4 79.7 1 0 0 .2 1 0 2 .1 99.8 96.2 96.3 1 0 2 .2 1 0 2 .2 84.4 96.8 101.4 83.4 96.6 101.3 83.2 96.8 101.3 83.5 97.3 100.5 82.2 97.2 100.4 83.3 1 0 0 .2 84.9 84.3 96.9 100.3 82.0 98.8 98.7 98.7 98.7 98.5 98.6 98.6 98.5 98.5 98.5 97.9 98.0 97.9 104.7 105.1 101.7 106.5 106.8 106.9 107.1 102.4 107.2 107.5 107.5 1 0 2 .6 1 0 2 .8 1 0 2 .8 1 0 2 .2 97.8 80.7 104.6 104.6 1 0 2 .0 1 0 1 .8 1 0 1 .8 105.2 101.7 1 0 2 .2 1 0 2 .2 1 0 2 .2 107.1 102.5 102.3 90.3 102.3 89.3 1 0 2 .2 102.3 1 0 1 .6 1 0 2 .0 1 0 2 .1 1 0 2 .2 1 0 2 .2 8 8 .6 8 8 .6 8 8 .8 8 8 .6 8 8 .8 88.9 102.4 88.3 1 0 2 .2 89.1 102.3 89.1 8 8 .0 87.6 96.3 93.5 96.4 93.6 95.4 92.3 95.4 92.1 94.1 92.0 93.8 89.9 1 0 1 .0 1 0 1 .2 1 0 1 .1 95.0 92.2 100.9 94.2 92.1 1 0 0 .6 96.3 93.4 100.9 96.2 92.9 1 0 0 .6 96.3 93.3 100.9 1 0 1 .1 1 0 1 .0 1 0 1 .1 93.4 89.9 101.4 93.6 89.7 101.3 101.5 101.4 1 0 1 .6 101.5 101.7 101.9 101.9 101.5 1 0 1 .6 101.9 1 0 2 .2 102.3 102.3 87 P r o fe s s io n a l, s c ie n tific , a n d c o n tro llin g in s t r u m e n t s a n d a p p a r a tu s ....................................................... 106 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2003 39. U.S. import price indexes by Standard International Trade Classification [2000 = 100] 2003 2002 Industry Rev. 3 Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. June May July Aug. 0 Food and live animals.................................................... 96.6 98.8 97.6 97.6 98.8 100.4 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .2 1 0 1 .6 99.8 99.4 100.4 99.1 01 Meat and meat preparations............................................. Fish and crustaceans, mollusks, and other aquatic invertebrates....................................................... Vegetables, fruit, and nuts, prepared fresh or dry........... Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, and manufactures thereof............................................................................... 105.4 103.4 1 0 2 .0 1 0 1 .2 106.8 101.7 107.4 108.5 108.8 110.3 102.9 106.9 107.8 83.0 105.0 84.9 106.7 81.4 107.5 82.0 106.2 82.5 105.6 81.1 111.5 82.0 104.7 81.4 110.7 84.3 108.5 83.4 103.9 81.3 108.9 83.6 107.7 81.2 105.8 84,5 93.5 94.3 98.6 99.9 104.0 106.7 1 0 0 .2 100.5 99.1 94.8 95.4 96.9 102.5 102.7 103.0 103.3 104.0 104.5 104.6 103.9 104.0 103.9 1 0 2 .2 102.4 102.3 102.7 103.0 103.6 103.8 103.7 103.8 103.7 100.4 99.3 91.9 102.9 96.2 03 05 07 1 Beverages and tobacco................................................. 102.5 1 0 2 .6 102.4 11 Beverages.......................................................................... 1 0 2 .2 1 0 2 .2 1 0 2 .1 2 Crude materials, inedible, except fuels......................... 96.8 96.4 95.7 94.9 94.5 95.2 97.4 98.5 98.4 98.8 99.5 1 0 0 .6 24 25 28 29 Cork and wood................................................................... Pulp and waste paper....................................................... Metalliferous ores and metal scrap.................................. Crude animal and vegetable materials, n.e.s.................. 1 0 1 .8 96.3 82.3 93.8 94.0 78.9 94.7 101.4 94.7 77.9 95.5 103.6 96.8 80.3 99.1 102.3 95.0 86.5 99.9 1 0 1 .6 96.0 80.5 93.9 99.9 93.4 92.6 99.5 102.3 94.0 95.3 99.3 103.5 94.4 95.3 99.7 104.9 1 0 0 .0 82.3 95.2 97.5 98.3 82.3 93.3 104.0 91.1 92.9 72.7 96.3 97.8 81.1 97.0 97.7 87.3 90.4 89.8 92.1 94.9 94.2 97.0 109.6 108.1 117.8 1 2 1 .2 126.0 118.1 185.9 1 0 1 .6 96.0 92.6 119.0 101.5 97.3 130.1 105.2 102.4 98.7 98.2 102.5 96.7 99.2 99.2 94.8 99.6 91.6 99.1 104.2 96.5 100.4 107.5 97.8 101.5 99.2 99.5 99.0 105.8 98.0 1 0 0 .1 1 0 0 .1 96,4 99.5 93.5 98.0 102.5 95.9 99.3 98.8 96.0 99.5 90.8 1 0 1 .1 96.6 99.6 98.4 97.9 99.5 92.4 98.3 101.5 95.8 99.5 98.4 96.4 99.4 91.0 98.9 101.7 106.4 98.0 102.5 99.4 106.1 1 0 0 .6 1 0 0 .8 1 0 0 .8 96.7 93.2 92.3 106.4 98.0 103.1 99.0 105.1 101.7 93.6 93.1 93.5 93.5 93.6 98.2 99.3 99.3 Manufactures of metals, n.e.s......................................... 92.7 97.5 77.7 98.6 93.7 97.5 76.4 98.6 7 Machinery and transport equipment............................ 96.9 72 74 Machinery specialized for particular industries............... General industrial machines and parts, n.e.s., 99.2 75 76 Computer equipment and office machines..................... Telecommunications and sound recording and reproducing apparatus and equipment.......................... 3 Mineral fuels, lubricants, and related products............ Petroleum, petroleum products, and related materials.... 33 34 Gas, natural and manufactured....................................... 5 Chemicals and related products, n.e.s.......................... Inorganic chemicals........................................................... 52 Dying, tanning, and coloring materials............................. 53 Medicinal and pharmaceutical products.......................... 54 Essential oils; polishing and cleaning preparations......... 55 Plastics in primary forms................................................... 57 Plastics in nonprimary forms............................................. 58 Chemical materials and products, n.e.s........................... 59 98.9 1 0 0 .2 1 0 0 .1 119.8 129.3 99.8 106.5 97.5 101.5 97.9 97.9 1 0 2 .6 1 1 0 .8 98.6 120.5 93.6 100.3 98.8 1 2 2 .8 107.9 106.6 113.5 99.3 106.5 98.3 103.1 91.7 103.3 1 0 0 .2 1 0 0 .1 92.1 93.1 97.6 101.3 98.4 99.3 100.4 97.6 93.7 93.2 94.2 94.1 94.1 93.7 94.5 94.9 95.5 99.4 99.3 99.1 99.1 99.0 99.2 99.1 99.2 98.5 98.5 93.3 97.6 76.0 98.5 93.3 97.6 76.6 98.3 93.0 97.7 77.3 98.3 92.6 97.6 76.1 97.5 92.6 97.7 79.2 98.0 93.0 97.6 80.0 97.9 93.6 97.6 78.5 97.5 93.2 97.5 75.8 97.6 93.4 97.9 78.1 98.3 93.2 97.9 78.1 98.5 94.8 97.9 79.1 98.7 96.7 96.4 96.2 96.1 96.0 95.9 95.8 95.8 95.7 95.7 95.6 98.3 98.5 98.7 99.2 99.4 100.3 100.7 1 0 0 .6 1 0 0 .6 101.4 102.5 1 0 2 .1 98.4 86.9 98.4 86.4 98.5 84.9 98.6 84.6 98.6 84.2 98.6 83.9 99.4 83.3 99.8 82.7 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .6 82.1 100.7 81.7 1 0 0 .8 82.8 80.8 80.8 92.8 96.5 100.3 92.3 96.0 92.0 95.6 100.5 91.7 95.4 100.4 90.0 95.3 89.5 95.5 1 0 0 .8 91.1 95.9 100.5 90.4 95.7 78 93.1 96.7 100.3 1 0 0 .6 1 0 0 .6 1 0 0 .6 89.4 95.2 100.7 89.2 95.4 100.7 88.5 95.6 100.7 88.5 95.5 100.7 85 99.5 99.4 99.4 99.4 99.6 99.5 99.6 99.8 99.6 99.7 1 0 0 .0 99.9 99.8 98.8 98.4 98.5 98.3 98.5 98.8 99.2 99.4 99.6 99.3 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .1 99.7 6 Manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials.... 62 64 Paper, paperboard, and articles of paper, pulp, 66 Nonmetalllc mineral manufactures, n.e.s........................ 68 69 77 88 Photographic apparatus, equipment, and supplies, and optical goods, n.e.s.................................................. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 96.8 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .2 1 0 1 .8 97.2 97.3 Monthly Labor Review 1 0 1 .2 O ctober 2003 1 0 1 .8 93.3 95.5 107 Current Labor Statistics: 40. Price Data U.S. export price indexes by end-use category [2000 = 100] 2002 C ategory ALL COMMODITIES......................................... Foods, feeds, and beverages.................................. Agricultural foods, feeds, and beverages................ Nonagrlcultural (fish, beverages) food products...... Industrial supplies and materials.................................. Agricultural industrial supplies and materials........... Fuels and lubricants......................................... Nonagricultural supplies and materials, excluding fuel and building materials...................... Selected building materials............................... Sept. 98.5 98.8 98.7 98.8 98.6 98.9 99.5 99.7 99.6 99.7 99.6 99.5 99.4 106.1 106.7 100.7 109.8 110.7 101.3 107.6 108.2 109.6 110.4 108.7 109.4 111.3 110.9 1 1 0 .0 108.5 108.6 108.0 1 1 1 .8 1 0 2 .0 108.3 108.8 104.6 108.2 108.1 1 0 2 .1 108.7 109.5 102.3 109 0 109 1 109.4 Dec. Jan. 1 0 2 .8 Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July 1 1 2 .1 1 1 1 .2 1 1 1 .1 1 1 0 .2 113.1 109.3 Aug. 95.9 96.4 96.1 96.0 97.3 99.2 1 0 0 .6 1 0 0 .1 98.4 98.4 1 0 0 .1 101.9 103.3 103.8 104.8 104.6 103.5 104.4 104.7 8 8 .0 92.9 94.0 91.6 91.3 96.2 103.8 108.0 96.3 94.5 97.1 96.7 99 9 96.5 95.4 96.4 96.2 96.8 96.6 96.5 96.6 96.4 96.2 97.3 96.1 98.8 96.5 99.9 96.4 100.7 96.6 1 0 0 .2 100.7 96.3 100.3 97.5 1 0 0 .2 98.3 98.3 98.2 101.9 95.4 98.4 101.5 95.7 98.3 97.7 1 0 1 .6 1 0 1 .6 95.6 98.3 101.5 95.5 97.7 1 0 1 .6 98.3 101.5 95.6 94.7 98.4 1 0 2 .0 1 0 2 .0 96.2 96.0 Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines..................... 1 0 1 .1 41. Nov. 95.5 98.5 Agricultural commodities.......................................... Nonagricultural commodities..................................... Oct. 97.7 Capital goods................................................. Electric and electrical generating equipment........... Nonelectrical machinery....................................... Consumer goods, excluding automotive...................... Nondurables, manufactured................................ Durables, manufactured..................................... 2003 Aug. 1 0 1 .1 99.4 96.5 1 0 0 .1 99.8 1 0 0 .1 105.2 98.0 95.8 95.7 98.1 101.9 95.4 94.6 97.7 101.4 94.5 101.4 101.4 101.3 101.5 1 0 1 .6 101.5 1 0 1 .6 101.5 1 0 1 .6 1 0 1 .8 101.7 99.4 99.3 98.7 99.6 99.1 98.2 99.5 99.4 98.9 99.6 99.4 98.7 99.7 99.3 98.5 99.8 99.4 98.5 99.9 99.6 98.8 99 6 98.8 1 0 0 .1 1 0 0 .1 107.9 99.0 1 1 0 .6 1 1 0 .0 1 1 0 .0 98.8 98.7 98.7 108.4 98.7 May June July Aug. 1 0 2 .1 1 0 2 .0 99.3 98.7 99.7 99.3 98.7 99.6 98.8 99.6 99.3 98.6 99.7 105.2 97.9 108.6 98.0 106.6 98.1 108.7 98.0 108.2 97.8 108.3 98.2 107.9 98.8 107.5 99.1 Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb. Mar. 99 4 98 7 99.8 U.S. import price indexes by end-use category [2000 = 100] 2002 C ategory 2003 Aug. Sept. 94.8 95.5 95.5 94.6 95.2 96.9 98.5 99.1 96.0 95.3 96.1 96.6 96.8 96.9 1 0 0 .0 101.3 107.9 1 0 1 .2 1 0 2 .6 1 0 1 .2 107.8 87.4 109.6 86.9 101.3 107.5 87.7 1 0 1 .6 107.7 107.4 8 6 .8 102.5 108.9 88.4 100.7 107.1 8 6 .6 99.9 105.8 87.1 1 0 0 .2 8 6 .0 99.7 105.4 87.3 8 6 .6 8 8 .1 Industrial supplies and materials.................................. 92.6 95.2 95.4 92.3 94.6 101.3 107.4 109.7 97.6 95.3 98.1 99.9 1 0 1 .2 Fuels and lubricants................................................... Petroleum and petroleum products....................... 90.7 91.8 96.2 97.1 96.7 97.0 89.8 89.0 94.7 94.0 109.1 107.7 120.9 119.9 125.2 118.6 99.3 96.3 94.9 91.5 1 0 0 .1 96.1 103.2 100.4 105.6 104.3 Paper and paper base stocks.................................... Materials associated with nondurable supplies and materials........................................... Selected building materials.................................... Unfinished metals associated with durable goods.. Nonmetals associated with durable goods............... 89.3 90.5 90.1 89.7 89.1 8 8 .6 89.2 91.0 93.5 94.1 93.6 93.6 94.8 99.1 99.2 99.7 96.9 89.9 96.9 99.7 96.4 90.5 96.9 1 0 0 .1 95.0 91.5 97.1 101.5 95.6 90.5 96.9 102.4 96.9 93.3 97.4 104.2 96.3 92.8 97.9 103.5 95.4 91.7 97.1 102.5 96.2 89.9 97.3 103.0 96.7 92.2 98.2 103.0 97.0 99.4 97.6 89.7 96.9 92.2 98.3 102.4 103.0 92.9 98.1 Capital goods.................................................. Electric and electrical generating equipment........... Nonelectrical machinery....................................... 94.9 95.9 93.9 94.7 95.7 93.7 94.0 95.2 92.9 94.0 94.8 92.9 93.9 94.9 92.8 93.9 95.3 92.7 93.8 95.5 92.6 93.7 95.5 92.5 93.8 95.6 92.5 93.6 96.1 92.2 93.8 96.6 92.3 93.7 96.9 92.2 93.6 96.7 92.0 Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines..................... 1 0 0 .2 100.3 100.7 100.4 100.5 100.3 100.5 100.5 100.5 1 0 0 .6 100.7 1 0 0 .6 100.7 Consumer goods, excluding automotive...................... Nondurables, m anufactured....................................... Durables, manufactured........................................ Nonmanufactured consumer goods.......................... 98.2 99.6 97.0 95.6 98.1 99.5 96.8 95.4 98.1 99.5 96.8 95.4 97.9 99.3 96.7 95.2 98.0 99.7 96.5 95.4 98.0 99.7 96.4 95.5 97.9 99.5 96.4 95.5 97.9 99.7 96.2 95.7 97.9 99.9 96.1 95.6 97.9 99.8 96.2 95.6 98.1 99.9 96.5 96.2 98.1 97 9 99.8 96.1 95.6 A L L COMMODITIES.............................................. Foods, feeds, and beverages...................................... Agricultural foods, feeds, and beverages................ Nonagricultural (fish, beverages) food products...... 42. 1 0 2 .0 8 8 .6 Oct. 106.1 106.0 87.5 Apr. U.S. international price Indexes for selected categories of services [2000 = 100]______________ 2001 C ategory June Air freight (inbound).................................................... Air freight (outbound)................................................... Air passenger fares (U.S. carriers)................................... Air passenger fares (foreign carriers).............................. Ocean liner freight (inbound)............................................ 108 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Sept. 2002 Dec. 95.1 98.0 94.9 97.6 106.4 103.8 1 0 0 .8 98.1 93.6 O ctober 2003 Mar. June 2003 Sept. Dec. Mar. June 95.2 97.9 93.9 95.9 98.3 98.4 100.3 97.3 105.9 95.4 108.8 97.2 109.5 95.4 107.6 103.5 1 0 0 .8 103.3 99.4 91.7 110.7 110.9 90.3 114.3 118.5 93.5 107.9 107.2 93.3 1 1 2 .0 1 1 0 .2 111.7 94.0 119.3 123.2 116.2 1 0 1 .8 1 0 0 .0 96.2 95.7 87.8 43. Indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, and unit costs, quarterly data seasonally adjusted [1992= 100] II III IV I II 2003 2002 2001 2000 Item III IV I II III IV I II Business Output per hour of all persons.......................................... Compensation per hour..................................................... Real compensation per hour............................................. Unit labor costs.................................................................... Unit nonlabor paym ents..................................................... Implicit price deflator........................................................... 117.4 137.4 118.3 138.2 111.4 116.8 116.8 116.8 1 1 1 .0 1 1 1 .2 115.3 115.6 113.3 114.8 116.9 136.7 111.3 117.0 113.5 115.7 118.2 127.7 106.6 107.5 108.0 106.3 118.8 109.5 108.5 119.4 130.3 107.8 108.6 109.1 107.1 109.5 107.7 108.6 119.4 131.6 108.1 109.8 118.7 131.2 106.8 1 1 0 .2 1 1 0 .6 108.9 98.6 106.3 108.9 1 1 1 .6 93.1 106.9 109.3 132.6 107.1 111.3 110.4 113.5 95.4 108.9 109.9 134.9 129.3 107.9 95.9 135.4 132.2 109.4 97.7 135.9 131.5 108.0 96.8 135.2 132.0 107.5 97.6 135.8 133.6 107.9 98.4 1 1 2 .0 115.2 123.7 141.5 112.9 114.4 1 1 2 .8 117.1 115.1 116.4 117.0 135.3 1 1 1 .0 123.4 140.2 1 1 2 .1 117.3 113.3 115.8 116.4 134.2 115.3 120.7 138.9 1 1 1 .6 116.1 131.4 109.7 113.1 115.3 113.9 113.1 113.8 113.4 115.2 117.0 115.9 121.3 139.8 113.7 1 1 0 .1 124.1 142.4 118.8 139.1 117.4 137.4 111.9 117.1 116.8 134.6 111.4 123.9 141.0 113.4 113.8 119.7 116.0 117.8 138.2 117.5 135.9 111.7 115.6 111.9 114.3 116.6 131.9 113.5 114.7 118.8 116.2 127.2 145.4 113.7 114.2 122.3 117.2 129.5 146.9 114.7 113.5 124.3 117.4 126.0 142.8 112.7 113.3 124.3 117.3 126.7 144.2 128.8 145.6 113.7 113.0 126.4 131.3 141.0 125.9 143.1 113.5 113.6 120.9 116.3 126.4 143.7 113.4 113.7 125.5 142.2 1 2 2 .1 116.8 Nonfarm business Output per hour of all persons.......................................... Real compensation per hour............................................. Unit labor costs.................................................................... Unit nonlabor paym ents..................................................... Implicit price deflator........................................................... 1 1 2 .6 114.3 1 1 1 .0 117.1 114.9 116.3 1 1 2 .1 1 1 2 .8 1 1 2 .8 116.8 113.3 123.1 116.9 126.0 135.9 109.4 109.5 107.9 114.0 107.6 112.4 109.4 127.7 137.3 109.5 109.4 107.5 114.5 107.8 128.7 138.2 109.7 109.6 107.4 115.4 104.6 129.9 139.2 109.9 109.3 107.1 115.2 1 1 2 .8 1 1 2 .6 109.3 109.1 142.9 138.3 111.3 96.8 144.8 140.5 147.2 141.3 1 1 2 .0 1 1 2 .1 115.1 119.0 116.5 1,113.6 121.5 116.4 110.5 124.5 134.7 108.7 109.8 108.2 114.1 107.6 112.4 109.6 137.8 135.0 108.8 97.9 139.9 136.7 110.3 97.7 1 2 1 .2 1 1 2 .8 113.8 124.5 117.7 117.9 Nonfinancial corporations Real compensation per hour............................................. Total unit costs.................................................................... Unit labor costs.................................................................. Unit nonlabor costs........................................................... Unit nonlabor paym ents..................................................... Implicit price deflator........................................................... 1 1 0 .8 1 2 0 .0 121.3 133.8 107.8 111.7 110.3 115.5 97.9 1 1 1 .0 133.9 142.3 1 1 0 .2 1 1 1 .1 109.3 107.3 114.6 107.9 106.3 1 1 0 .1 1 1 2 .2 113.9 109.4 114.0 109.6 125.3 115.5 109.4 147.0 142.4 112.4 96.9 148.5 144.6 113.1 97.4 149.8 146.5 114.4 97.7 1 1 2 .2 Manufacturing Output per hour of all persons.......................................... Real compensation per hour............................................ Unit labor costs.................................................................... https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 97.0 Monthly Labor Review 96.0 O ctober 2003 109 Current Labor Statistics: 44. Productivity Data Annual indexes of multifactor productivity and related measures, selected years [1996 = 100, unless otherwise indicated] Item 1980 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 Private business Productivity: Output per hour of all persons...................................... Output per unit of capital services................................. Multifactor productivity......................................... Output................................................... Inputs: Labor input..................................................... Capital services................................................ Combined units of labor and capital input.................... Capital per hour of all persons........................... 75.8 103.3 59.4 90.2 99.7 95.5 83.6 91.3 96.5 94.5 82.6 94.8 98.0 96.7 85.7 95.4 98.7 97.1 88.5 96.6 100.4 98.2 92.8 97.3 99.8 98.4 95.8 71.9 57.6 67.0 73.4 89.4 83.8 87.5 90.4 88.3 85.7 87.4 94.6 89.3 87.5 88.7 96.8 91.8 89.7 91.1 96.6 95.6 92.5 94.6 96.2 98.0 96.0 97.3 97.5 77.3 107.6 91.0 59.6 90.3 100.4 95.8 83.5 91.4 97.0 94.8 82.5 94.8 98.2 96.7 85.5 95.3 99.0 97.2 88.4 96.5 100.4 98.2 92.6 70.7 55.4 65.9 71.8 89.2 83.2 87.2 89.9 87.9 85.1 87.0 94.3 89.0 87.0 88.4 96.5 91.8 89.4 91.0 96.3 95.4 92.2 94.5 96.1 62.1 97.4 81.2 64.4 82.3 97.5 93.1 83.2 84.2 93.6 92.2 81.6 8 8 .6 96.0 93.8 65.5 90.3 97.0 94.8 88.3 93.0 99.7 97.4 93.0 96.9 87.2 93.4 79.2 84.4 88.4 96.5 89.1 93.3 84.6 91.7 91.2 97.8 91.1 96.7 87.1 94.1 93.1 99.9 93.2 99.9 90.0 96.2 95.5 8 8 .8 105.2 105.9 99.3 102.5 110.5 107.7 98.2 103.4 115.7 96.6 105.0 120.4 103.5 104.9 104.0 101.9 106.1 111.3 107.1 105.8 109.0 117.9 111.9 109.7 124.5 114.7 114.8 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .0 1 0 0 .0 100.3 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .2 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 1 1 .0 1 1 0 .1 112.4 92 8 103.9 1 2 0 .2 109.5 129 6 115.7 1 2 1 .1 Private nonfarm business Productivity: Output per hour of all persons................................ Output per unit of capital services................................ Multifactor productivity........................................ O utput................................................................. Inputs: Labor input................................................... Capital services......................................... Combined units of labor and capital input.................... Capital per hour of all persons......................................... 97.5 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 104.7 99.0 98.6 95.8 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .0 1 0 2 .2 1 0 0 .0 105.1 110.5 107.1 97.6 102.9 115.7 97.8 95.8 97.2 97.6 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 103.6 105.1 104.1 101.9 106.4 111.7 108.1 105.8 109.5 118.5 112.4 109.7 109.3 101.9 105.4 1 1 1 .0 114.9 102.3 108.1 115.7 101.5 108.9 105.0 1 0 1 .8 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 110.3 95.9 104.4 92 0 103.3 1 2 0 .2 1 2 0 .1 1 1 1 .6 1 1 0 .6 1 1 0 .1 125.4 115.2 115.0 130.5 116.3 121.3 Manufacturing (1996 = 100) Productivity: Output per hour of all persons......................................... Output per unit of capital services............................. Multifactor productivity................................................. Output........................................................ Inputs: Hours of all persons................................................. Capital services........................................................ Energy.................................................................. Nonenergy materials................................................ Purchased business services................................. Combined units of all factor inputs................................. no Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 103.7 6 6 .2 86.3 63.6 67.3 79.3 1 0 1 .1 85.3 93.2 78.3 84.8 89.4 O ctober 2003 96.6 1 0 0 .0 104.2 1 0 0 .6 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .8 99.2 96.9 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 103.3 106.0 100.4 96.4 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .8 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .1 1 0 0 .0 104.1 98.5 93.0 100.5 97.7 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .0 1 1 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 104.5 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .6 103.1 105.3 100.7 113.1 114.9 104.4 107.0 119.5 1 0 1 .1 1 1 0 .1 118.6 99.3 117.3 104.6 115.9 105.5 107.7 - 45. Annual indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, unit costs, and prices, selected years [1992 = 100] Item 1960 1970 1980 1990 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2002 2001 B u s in e s s Output per hour of all persons.......................................... Compensation per hour..................................................... Real compensation per hour............................................. Unit labor costs.................................................................... Unit nonlabor payments..................................................... Implicit price deflator........................................................... 119.4 104.8 108.4 114.3 113.0 124.8 107.2 110.4 113.7 116.5 133.5 1 1 0 .6 1 1 1 .6 113.5 1 1 0 .2 1 1 2 .8 119.1 104.5 115.5 115.7 124.3 106.8 115.3 115.5 116.1 133.0 1 1 0 .8 1 1 2 .1 111.7 115.9 114.7 1 0 1 .6 104.0 104.9 105.5 103.4 131.5 102.3 106.5 99.4 104.1 109.4 106.0 105.1 109.9 99.8 104.6 113.2 107.7 107.4 113.2 100.7 105.4 117.0 109.7 1 1 0 .2 104.3 99.6 106.9 106.9 104.1 102.7 106.5 99.4 110.4 110.4 106.1 105.3 109.8 99.7 113.4 113.5 107.6 107.4 113.0 100.5 117.9 118.0 109.8 103.1 104.2 99.5 104.1 106.1 99.0 107.5 108.9 98.9 1 0 1 .1 1 0 2 .0 1 0 1 .2 108.4 110.3 98.1 101.5 1 0 1 .0 101.9 101.4 1 0 1 .8 103.3 103.8 101.3 131.7 109.0 103.7 1 0 2 .2 1 0 0 .6 139.0 68.4 95.5 90.9 96.5 95.9 95.2 98.0 94.3 97.1 95.8 152.2 113.8 105.5 100.9 156.9 115.2 106.2 141.7 112.3 106.6 70.1 55.6 91.4 79.3 80.2 79.9 92.9 90.8 96.4 97.8 99.8 99.0 105.0 105.6 109.0 107.9 1 0 1 .0 1 0 0 .6 100.7 99.0 106.9 103.9 49.5 13.9 60.7 28.0 25.1 27.0 67.1 23.5 78.6 35.1 31.7 33.9 80.3 54.1 88.9 67.3 61.7 65.2 95.3 90.7 96.3 95.2 94.0 94.8 101.7 104.4 99.7 52.4 14.5 63.2 27.6 24.5 26.5 6 8 .8 81.7 54.3 89.3 66.4 60.6 64.3 95.3 90.5 96.1 93.7 93.6 94.5 1 0 1 .8 55.4 15.6 23.3 50.2 30.2 28.8 70.4 25.3 84.4 34.8 35.9 31.9 44.4 35.1 35.6 81.1 56.5 92.9 68.4 69.6 65.1 41.8 14.9 65.0 35.6 26.8 30.2 54.2 23.7 79.2 43.8 29.3 35.0 1 0 2 .6 106.4 104.0 118.8 138.6 1 1 1 .0 1 1 2 .1 114.6 116.7 114.3 115.8 1 1 1 .8 125.1 142.5 113.5 113.9 120.4 116.3 N o n f a r m b u s in e s s Output per hour of all persons.......................................... Compensation per hour..................................................... Real compensation per hour............................................. Unit labor costs.................................................................... Unit nonlabor paym ents..................................................... Implicit price deflator........................................................... 23.7 79.0 34.4 31.3 33.3 1 1 0 .6 113.3 113.5 114.1 118.3 137.8 111.4 116.1 116.4 116.3 124.7 141.7 1 2 1 .1 128.1 137.7 109.6 109.4 107.5 114.8 107.5 112.9 109.3 1 1 2 .8 122.5 122.5 116.9 N o n f in a n c i a l c o r p o r a t io n s Real compensation per hour............................................. 6 8 .1 26.8 Unit labor costs.................................................................. Unit nonlabor costs........................................................... Unit nonlabor paym ents..................................................... Implicit price deflator........................................................... 6 8 .8 6 6 .0 1 1 1 .6 105.1 1 0 2 .2 1 2 1 .0 1 1 0 .6 107.2 118.7 129.1 107.3 108.2 108.8 106.7 1 1 1 .6 108.0 108.5 133.0 107.6 110.9 109.9 113.7 98.5 109.8 109.8 M a n u f a c tu r in g Output per hour of all persons.......................................... Real compensation per hour............................................ Unit labor costs.................................................................... Unit nonlabor payments..................................................... Implicit price deflator........................................................... 1 0 2 .8 1 0 2 .0 1 1 2 .8 109.4 99.4 96.9 109.9 104.8 117.6 111.5 99.1 94.8 1 1 0 .0 104.1 123.3 117.4 103.0 95.2 103.7 100.4 129.7 1 2 2 .1 104.9 94.1 104.9 100.7 134.9 131.1 109.0 97.2 107.0 103.2 137.1 134.3 108.6 97.9 - 145.5 140.6 1 1 2 .0 96.7 - - Dash indicates data not available. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 111 Current Labor Statistics: 46. Productivity Data Annual indexes of output per hour for selected naics industries, 1990-2001 1997=100] NAICS Industry 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1 0 1 .8 1 0 1 .8 1 0 0 .0 103.5 1 1 1 .1 95.5 94.0 98.9 96.0 94.9 95.3 97.1 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .6 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 104.6 106.5 109.5 107.9 105.9 110.3 112.7 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .2 1 0 0 .0 1998 1999 2000 2001 Mining 21 211 212 2121 2122 2123 Mining.............................................. 79.9 92.3 86.9 78.8 80.0 69.3 82.7 89.5 75.3 91.7 96.1 71.2 71.4 73.8 72.7 74.1 75.8 79.8 83.0 82.2 89.0 95.5 96.1 89.3 91.3 93.8 89.7 92.1 90.2 91.2 90.6 90.7 95.5 90.2 94.0 92.6 93.9 94.0 87.3 94.8 93.9 95.0 95.5 94.0 99.1 94.2 97.2 99.0 87.5 91.4 98.3 98.2 98.2 97.6 114.1 96.7 100.3 97.7 98.7 108.4 99.7 1 0 1 .2 94.4 116.2 97.8 103.1 99.6 1 0 1 .2 89.8 87.2 91.9 87.8 90.0 97.5 92.0 95.8 84.5 92.5 99.4 98.7 98.0 85.0 93.2 76.6 99.0 83.1 94.7 104.5 80.4 104.6 75.9 95.8 109.5 85.5 112.4 78.6 81.7 94.3 82.6 109.1 103.0 90.4 80.0 85.1 105.8 99.2 95.6 73.2 91.0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .8 1 0 1 .8 1 0 1 .2 1 0 0 .0 105.6 100.3 100.7 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .6 92.6 96.3 97.4 97.5 98.4 85.7 95.2 101.9 97.0 98.8 90.2 92.4 97.4 98.2 99.6 94.8 90.1 1 0 0 .0 93.4 87.4 92.4 94.1 8 8 .6 95.9 90.7 96.3 92.7 93.9 93.3 92.1 99.9 98.3 95.7 92.6 94.4 90.2 96.6 87.6 94.4 94.4 92.9 97.3 88.7 94.2 1 0 0 .0 97.0 94.3 102.7 96.7 1 0 0 .0 95.0 87.8 90.5 87.2 98.2 8 8 .8 1 0 0 .0 89.7 94.6 91.7 100.3 105.1 91.4 93.7 94.4 96.8 103.0 93.1 94.2 97.8 93.4 94.8 89.6 95.3 86.9 95.1 100.5 95.7 91.5 91.5 93.8 97.8 97.3 99.5 98.8 94.2 100.7 8 6 .1 Oil and gas extraction.................................... Mining, except oil and gas........................................ Coal mining............................................... Metal ore mining................................ Nonmetallic mineral mining and quarrying............ 78.4 79.3 6 8 .1 95.4 81.9 8 6 .8 96.3 85.1 89.9 79.9 1 0 2 .2 93.6 99.6 90.3 93.0 83.9 104.1 96.9 8 8 .2 98.5 97.3 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .2 109.2 114.5 106.8 115.8 124.4 96.2 107.4 116.6 109.0 114.4 131.8 99.4 103.8 99.1 104.1 103.1 107.0 113.4 1 1 0 .2 109.4 107.6 104.0 106.8 99.2 109.5 114.1 107.2 108.5 94.5 109.7 112.5 1 1 2 .1 109.9 96.1 127.2 117.4 109.8 117.2 96.3 99.9 117.0 103.6 107.0 98.6 100.4 130.2 105.5 108.8 92.4 101.9 137.6 105.2 110.3 90.7 147.3 106.2 103.4 91.8 Utilities 2211 2212 Power generation and supply................................. Natural gas distribution........................................... 78.7 8 8 .6 1 0 0 .0 106.4 M anufacturing 3111 3112 3113 3114 3115 Animal food........................................... Grain and oilseed milling..................................... Sugar and confectionery products........................... Fruit and vegetable preserving and specialty....... Dairy products............................................. 90.1 89.0 91.0 86.4 90.9 3116 3117 3118 3119 3121 Animal slaughtering and processing....................... Seafood product preparation and packaging.... Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing........................ Other food products............................................... Beverages............................................................ 94.6 117.5 92.6 92.0 86.5 3122 3131 3132 3133 3141 Tobacco and tobacco products......................... Fiber, yarn, and thread mills................................... Fabric mills............................................. Textile and fabric finishing mills............................... Textile furnishings mills........................................... 81.4 73.9 75.0 81.7 77.3 74.7 77.7 80.4 8 8 .1 3149 3151 3152 3159 3161 Other textile product mills......................................... Apparel knitting mills....................................... Cut and sew apparel................................................ Accessories and other apparel................................ Leather and hide tanning and finishing................... 3162 3169 3211 3212 3219 97.0 1 0 1 .6 1 0 1 .0 1 1 2 .0 115.3 95.4 96.0 93.7 113.9 96.0 102.9 93.1 73.7 84.6 85.0 8 8 .6 79.6 80.1 81.5 83.7 92.8 91.1 85.6 70.1 100.9 60.8 89.9 88.7 72.0 97.3 56.6 92.0 93.5 73.2 98.7 76.7 Footwear............................................................ Other leather products............................................. Sawmills and wood preservation............................. Plywood and engineered wood products............... Other wood products................................................ 77.1 102.5 79.2 102.3 105.4 74.7 83.1 97.0 3221 3222 3231 3241 3251 Pulp, paper, and paperboard mills........................... Converted paper products........................................ Printing and related support activities..................... Petroleum and coal products.................................... Basic chemicals............................................ 88.5 90.4 96.7 76.7 91.5 93.5 95.4 75.8 90.2 3252 3253 3254 3255 3256 Resin, rubber, and artificial fibers............................ Agricultural chemicals............................................... Pharmaceuticals and medicines............................ Paints, coatings, and adhesives............................... Soap, cleaning compounds, and toiletries............ 75.7 84.6 91.4 85.1 83.2 74.8 81.0 92.7 85.9 84.2 3259 3261 3262 3271 3272 Other chemical products and preparations........... Plastics products................................................. Rubber products............................................. Clay products and refractories................................. Glass and glass products......................................... 76.6 84.7 83.0 89.2 80.0 3273 3274 3279 3311 3312 Cement and concrete products................................ Lime and gypsum products..................................... Other nonmetallic mineral products....................... Iron and steel mills and ferroalloy production..... Steel products from purchased stee........................ 95.0 84.1 79.8 69.6 83.7 93.7 82.7 81.4 67.2 8 6 .2 94.9 88.5 90.2 74.1 89.6 96.5 90.1 89.3 81.7 95.8 3313 3314 3315 3321 3322 Alumina and aluminum production........................... Other nonferrous metal production......................... Foundries........................................................ Forging and stamping................................................ Cutlery and hand tools............................................... 91.9 95.7 85.1 96.8 98.7 85.7 91.7 87.2 96.0 85.1 93.3 95.8 84.4 86.5 85.4 3323 3324 3325 3326 3327 Architectural and structural metals.......................... Boilers, tanks, and shipping containers.................. Hardware.................................................... Spring and wire products........................................... Machine shops and threaded products................... 87.8 90.4 84.4 85.2 78.8 89.2 92.6 83.8 88.4 79.6 92.6 95.3 86.9 90.9 87.2 8 8 .6 See note at end of table. 112 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2003 92.2 93.6 90.0 1 0 0 .2 81.6 107.4 104.7 8 8 .1 8 6 .1 114.7 104.2 8 6 .0 93.7 90.2 1 0 2 .6 92.2 93.5 101.4 79.1 89.5 1 0 0 .2 80.7 81.3 83.8 85.6 84.6 90.0 8 8 .1 8 8 .1 87.6 83.4 90.9 87.0 78.0 84.7 86.3 83.9 87.4 79.3 90.4 84.8 91.5 84.5 90.6 91.7 90.3 91.8 8 6 .1 1 0 1 .8 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 98.1 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .2 1 0 0 .0 103.9 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .6 92.1 104.6 109.8 101.7 1 0 0 .0 99.9 1 0 1 .2 1 0 2 .0 96.3 1 0 0 .0 1 2 2 .0 1 0 0 .0 98.0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .6 110.5 109.1 109.7 106.9 1 1 0 .2 104.0 106.6 90.7 1 0 0 .0 97.0 96.6 104.0 1 1 2 .6 1 0 0 .0 1 1 0 .8 118.8 103.3 110.5 110.4 127.8 104.9 91.5 1 0 0 .0 98.0 1 0 1 .6 1 1 0 .0 103.4 79.7 96.2 1 0 0 .0 100.9 109.2 116.8 100.4 105.4 99.9 105.3 124.1 107.6 106.5 1 0 0 .0 110.5 1 0 0 .6 104.0 1 0 0 .0 103.0 102.5 100.5 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .2 1 0 0 .0 102.7 111.3 101.5 103.5 108.0 114.8 1 0 0 .0 105.4 98.8 92.9 99.1 96.6 108.9 87.6 94.6 98.8 91.2 108.1 91.4 93.4 98.5 99.3 99.4 103.4 100.5 109.2 109.3 101.4 103.4 108.6 1 2 0 .0 111.3 103.8 103.5 109.8 104.3 102.7 95.5 106.5 94.0 100.4 97.0 95.6 108.5 96.1 104.3 108.8 104.7 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 115.6 1 0 1 .8 105.0 113.2 118.4 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .1 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .6 1 0 0 .6 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 91.7 89.7 92.4 96.5 94.1 103.4 113.1 98.8 101.7 1 0 0 .2 1 0 0 .2 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .2 95.9 105.6 96.2 97.6 104.4 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .1 1 0 0 .0 1 1 1 .1 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 101.5 103.7 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 110.9 107.8 97.8 103.1 103.8 121.3 105.8 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .0 1 0 1 .8 1 0 1 .0 1 0 0 .0 101.3 98.9 106.5 112.9 103.8 97.7 115.8 114.6 107.3 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .6 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .0 1 0 2 .8 1 0 0 .0 1 1 1 .6 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 99.3 102 8 105.0 108.2 131.8 114.8 109.7 142.7 114.1 109.0 104.8 104.7 117.2 100.9 105.7 1 1 2 .2 1 1 1 .0 103.8 91.1 97.3 1 0 2 .1 1 0 2 .6 111.3 113.1 104.1 97.6 105.2 97.1 1 0 0 .1 96.8 106.7 97.0 96.9 100.5 109.4 1 2 1 .8 1 1 0 .2 100.7 98.2 114.6 1 1 0 .6 107.4 Continued—Annual indexes of output per hour for selected naics industries, 1990-2001 Industry NAICS 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 3328 Coating, engraving, and heat treating metals 81.6 77.9 86.7 91.7 96.4 1 0 2 .6 1 0 2 .8 1 0 0 .0 101.5 101.3 105.8 104.7 3329 3331 3332 3333 Other fabricated metal products Agriculture, construction, and mining machinery Industrial machinery Commercial and service industry machinery 8 6 .6 85.9 77.3 81.1 89.8 90.5 79.6 79.5 96.6 92.0 84.1 84.9 101.9 94.9 91.0 90.0 98.7 96.0 98.8 106.5 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .2 1 0 0 .2 100.7 1 0 0 .0 104.3 94.4 107.8 95.1 105.2 111.3 129.7 1 0 1 .2 97.0 95.7 97.9 103.2 1 0 1 .6 98.0 99.5 104.6 94.4 3334 3335 3336 3339 3341 HVAC and commercial refrigeration equipment Metalworking machinery Turbine and power transmission equipment Other general purpose machinery Computer and peripheral equipment 8 8 .8 8 8 .2 85.3 85.0 82.2 84.4 85.2 15.8 90.8 89.3 81.2 85.2 2 0 .6 93.8 89.2 84.7 89.9 27.9 97.3 93.9 93.2 91.5 35.9 96.6 98.9 92.0 94.5 51.2 97.8 98.1 97.8 95.0 72.6 106.6 99.0 106.4 103.1 138.7 110.4 100.4 113.2 105.6 190.3 108.3 106.4 116.9 113.0 225.2 130.1 109.4 237.0 3342 3343 3344 3345 3346 Communications equipment Audio and video equipment Semiconductors and electronic components Electronic instruments Magnetic media manufacturing and reproduction 47.3 75.5 21.4 76.0 49.3 82.8 24.5 80.4 91.2 59.3 92.1 29.6 83.0 93.0 62.1 98.8 34.1 85.8 96.8 70.1 108.5 43.1 74.6 140.0 63.4 96.7 106.7 84.3 104.7 81.8 97.6 103.8 1 0 0 .0 102.7 103.1 125.3 101.3 105.4 134.0 116.2 174.5 105.0 106.8 165.5 123.3 233.3 114.2 104.0 155.2 126.3 231.6 116.0 98.6 3351 3352 3353 3359 3361 Electric lighting equipment Household appliances Electrical equipment Other electrical equipment and components Motor vehicles 87.2 76.5 73.5 75.3 93.7 82.4 78.7 81.7 91.2 90.7 89.0 85.7 86.9 89.8 94.5 95.1 88.9 89.5 90.2 92.1 92.8 98.0 92.1 95.4 93.3 1 0 0 .0 8 6 .0 88.4 76.6 72.7 74.3 82.4 8 8 .6 95.9 91.0 103.7 105.2 99.6 105.6 113.2 102.4 104.4 98.8 115.1 123.2 3362 3363 3364 3365 3366 Motor vehicle bodies and trailers Motor vehicle parts Aerospace products and parts Railroad rolling stock Ship and boat building 75.9 75.7 87.7 77.2 99.7 71.7 74.7 92.0 80.0 92.7 8 8 .2 96.3 82.6 94.0 81.1 98.6 8 8 .6 97.8 91.8 93.7 83.1 99.0 97.2 92.4 93.7 82.0 93.2 98.5 93.1 98.0 80.9 94.1 1 0 0 .0 102.5 104.8 118.5 102.9 100.3 103.2 110.5 118.1 116.0 112.3 3369 3371 3372 3379 3391 3399 Other transportation equipment Household and institutional furniture Office furniture and fixtures Other furniture-related products Medical equipment and supplies Other miscellaneous manufacturing 62.6 87.7 80.9 62.1 99.8 99.4 85.6 96.7 1 0 0 .0 1 1 0 .6 8 8 .6 1 0 0 .0 81.2 90.2 83.1 90.7 8 8 .1 92.8 97.0 84.5 94.5 95.0 96.0 1 0 0 .0 8 8 .1 93.3 93.9 83.4 93.6 90.8 93.1 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 102.5 100.3 107.2 108.9 99.6 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .1 113.1 103.5 98.5 102.5 109.6 105.3 42 423 4231 4232 4233 Wholesale trade Durable goods Motor vehicles and parts Furniture and furnishings Lumber and construction supplies 78.3 65.6 76.6 82.4 115.0 79.5 91.4 84.2 94.1 93.3 93.1 88.5 93.6 96.8 103.6 95.9 93.5 94.9 97.0 102.9 1 0 0 .0 114.7 116.6 119.8 1 2 1 .2 1 0 0 .0 104.8 106.3 104.7 97.5 102.9 1 1 1 .6 73.3 87.2 113.2 86.5 75.0 82.2 92.0 119.6 4234 4235 4236 4237 4238 Commercial equipment Metals and minerals Electric goods Hardware and plumbing Machinery and supplies 32.7 108.1 47.4 96.3 76.2 36.1 109.1 48.2 93.3 72.0 46.6 116.0 51.9 72.1 103.8 79.6 85.3 104.0 1 0 0 .0 122.4 102.4 105.9 103.5 104.2 150.2 96.0 126.2 107.8 101.4 4239 424 4241 4242 4243 Miscellaneous durable goods Nondurable goods Paper and paper products Druggists' goods Apparel and piece goods 91.8 98.2 81.3 84.7 104.9 98.7 99.6 85.7 89.2 104.2 114.1 103.0 96.8 93.9 100.7 4244 4245 4246 4247 4248 Grocery and related products Farm product raw materials Chemicals Petroleum Alcoholic beverages 96.6 75.9 107.3 97.4 109.4 98.4 80.9 106.7 107.1 4249 42511 42512 Miscellaneous nondurable goods Business to business electronic markets Wholesale trade agents and brokers 107.2 69.2 71.2 82.9 80.6 91.6 8 6 .0 14.3 8 6 .6 8 8 .1 78.8 88.3 92.8 86.3 88.4 90.0 98.1 82.3 101.4 99.7 93.7 8 8 .0 90.5 91.1 92.3 8 8 .8 106.1 1 0 0 .1 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .2 1 1 0 .8 1 0 2 .0 1 0 1 .8 105.4 117.6 1 2 2 .6 1 0 0 .6 100.9 113.7 108.9 1 2 0 .6 110.4 98.6 1 1 2 .6 1 0 1 .0 117.7 1 2 0 .1 131.0 1 0 2 .6 1 0 0 .2 1 0 0 .1 114.2 113.1 99.4 114.7 114.8 124.7 119.9 146.9 106.1 97.1 105.3 119.0 110.9 W holesale trade 6 6 .1 1 0 2 .6 77.8 89.6 80.4 8 8 .0 95.9 113.9 1 1 2 .0 58.4 114.3 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 54.3 117.4 59.6 99.8 82.6 105.8 84.1 1 0 1 .0 1 0 0 .6 1 0 0 .0 8 8 .8 93.4 1 0 0 .0 6 8 .6 8 8 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 114.9 107.3 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .8 1 0 1 .6 97.5 90.9 98.2 101.7 94.2 104.2 99.6 99.1 96.4 92.5 101.4 99.2 96.6 98.8 99.1 103.8 80.9 105.2 80.0 103.3 77.5 103.0 85.7 99.9 89.6 1 1 2 .6 1 1 0 .1 1 1 0 .6 1 0 2 .2 1 0 0 .1 1 0 0 .0 1 1 1 .2 118.3 107.4 119.2 105.5 115.9 105.9 108.7 102.4 105.9 104.4 1 0 0 .0 98.1 70.7 74.5 93.8 78.5 83.5 97.5 83.1 87.3 94.8 8 6 .8 89.2 96.1 89.1 92.9 98.7 94.3 97.8 84.0 90.2 94.2 95.8 87.7 92.4 93.5 97.1 97.9 92.9 97.0 95.0 97.2 97.1 93.0 99.0 98.0 98.9 98.9 98.6 98.8 8 8 .8 88.9 89.0 88.5 64.7 88.5 90.8 88.9 93.2 77.0 94.2 94.4 92.5 96.6 99.5 97.8 101.7 94.7 97.8 1 0 0 .8 104.9 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .8 1 1 2 .6 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .8 1 0 0 .0 100.5 99.6 104.1 104.1 105.6 101.7 103.5 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 114.0 105.5 101.7 116.6 119.7 114.1 105.4 108.6 160.6 99.1 151.7 158.9 101.9 148.1 1 1 1 .1 1 0 2 .6 104.1 102.7 116.7 103.5 105.5 96.8 116.1 106.9 109.0 1 0 2 .6 102.4 109.4 1 0 1 .2 101.9 100.4 99.3 115.0 109.6 103.6 114.3 98.0 1 1 2 .0 105.2 119.0 95.8 108.9 1 1 0 .0 1 1 1 .0 93.7 108.4 111.5 101.7 104.3 104.9 99.6 123.4 110.5 106.2 143.3 116.5 104.2 168.9 114.2 1 0 0 .0 104.3 1 1 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .6 106.4 106.4 113.0 114.4 107.4 106.9 108.6 1 1 0 .0 1 1 2 .0 117.4 109.1 108.0 112.4 109.3 109.5 108.2 115.5 114.8 116.6 180.1 113.1 116.5 119.2 113.5 202.7 115.7 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 2 0 .1 Retail trade 44-45 441 4411 4412 4413 Retail trade Motor vehicle and parts dealers Automobile dealers Other motor vehicle dealers Auto parts, accessories, and tire stores 83.8 90.1 91.9 72.7 87.3 90.7 75.6 86.3 87.5 92.9 94.6 82.6 91.4 442 4421 4422 443 444 Furniture and home furnishings stores Furniture stores Home furnishings stores Electronics and appliance stores Building material and garden supply stores 81.3 82.1 79.9 45.1 82.3 81.7 83.5 79.0 48.4 80.7 88.9 88.4 56.1 84.6 8 8 .8 8 8 .8 94.1 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .6 1 0 0 .0 106.0 105.7 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 101.7 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .1 1 0 0 .0 101.3 123.8 106.7 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 1 1 .2 153.6 1 1 2 .2 See note at end of table. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review October 2003 113 Current Labor Statistics: Productivity Data 46. Continued—Annual indexes of output per hour for selected naics industries, 1990-2001 1997=100] NAICS Industry 4441 4442 445 4451 4452 Building material and supplies dealers................... Lawn and garden equipment and supplies stores Food and beverage stores........................................ Grocery stores............................................................ Specialty food stores................................................. 83.6 75.6 108.8 107.9 141.4 81.1 78.6 108.3 108.0 132.3 85.2 81.5 108.8 108.4 128.7 4453 Beer, wine and liquor stores.................................... 1 0 0 .1 1 0 0 .2 1 0 1 .0 94.4 446 447 448 Health and personal care stores............................. Gasoline stations........................................................ Clothing and clothing accessories stores............... 92.9 88.5 70.2 92.3 89.3 71.1 91.3 92.2 75.9 92.6 95.9 79.4 4481 Clothing stores............................................................ 69.8 72.2 78.0 80.0 4482 4483 451 4511 4512 Shoe stores................................................................. Jewelry, luggage, and leather goods stores........ Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores Sporting goods and musical instrument stores Book, periodical, and music stores......................... 73.7 73.1 64.5 79.2 77.1 84.7 83.0 8 6 .8 8 6 .8 78.2 65.0 84.1 82.4 87.4 8 8 .1 452 4521 4529 453 4531 General merchandise stores.................................... Department stores..................................................... Other general merchandise stores......................... Miscellaneous store retailers.................................... Florists......................................................................... 75.2 79.0 88.3 64.8 65.4 76.0 83.0 91.6 69.6 74.0 85.1 4532 4533 4539 454 4541 Office supplies, stationery and gift stores.......... Used merchandise stores......................................... Other miscellaneous store retailers........................ Nonstore retailers....................................................... Electronic shopping and mail-order houses.......... 62.0 80.8 75.7 55.3 43.5 63.5 79.0 65.9 56.2 46.7 71.8 87.8 74.5 62.2 50.6 4542 4543 Vending machine operators..................................... Direct selling establishments.................................... 97.6 83.2 95.8 80.0 481 482111 48412 491 Air transportation........................................................ Line-haul railroads..................................................... General freight trucking, long-distance.................. U.S. Postal service..................................................... 77.5 69.8 88.5 96.1 1990 6 8 .6 81.2 79.6 84.4 75.3 84.1 61.5 6 8 .0 1991 1992 1993 89.6 82.6 106.8 107.0 1994 1996 1997 1998 1999 95.1 87.7 103.1 103.5 107.3 97.8 97.6 100.7 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .0 1 0 0 .0 98.3 1 0 0 .0 92.9 96.2 103.1 1 0 0 .0 105.8 99.8 92.3 99.1 83.7 93.1 101.5 91.6 95.7 100.3 98.1 1 0 0 .0 106.9 1 1 0 .6 1 0 0 .0 103.9 105.6 105.4 82.5 90.7 97.4 1 0 0 .0 88.3 85.0 88.4 102.4 97.3 95.4 93.9 98.2 1 0 0 .0 91.4 93.7 94.1 92.7 92.3 93.5 88.5 95.0 77.9 80.4 91.4 90.6 95.1 82.7 87.8 85.4 92.1 94.5 87.5 89.5 83.5 96.9 98.3 94.5 95.6 96.1 77.9 81.4 66.5 58.3 89.2 86.9 90.3 75.3 62.9 90.9 89.9 90.6 80.1 71.9 93.4 96.9 97.8 91.5 84.4 1 0 0 .0 95.1 87.4 92.8 87.2 94.1 99.9 89.3 98.4 96.9 105.4 1 0 0 .0 78.2 75.3 92.5 95.8 81.4 82.3 97.5 96.5 84.7 85.7 95.6 99.0 90.8 98.1 98.5 95.3 92.0 95.4 98.3 98.8 98.4 95.7 96.7 95.8 44.2 113.0 94.9 68.5 107.8 102.4 96.8 92.8 79.1 105.8 106.1 95.4 93.3 83.2 101.5 106.3 98.1 92.8 93.7 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .8 1 0 0 .0 97.6 95.3 61.6 108.2 103.2 99.3 103.1 96.2 8 6 .1 85.6 1 2 1 .0 8 8 .6 95.3 87.7 105.3 105.7 114.1 1995 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 107.6 101.3 99.9 100.3 94.7 110.4 1 1 0 .0 112.9 106.7 113.4 120.9 125.3 104.9 119.2 114.1 119.6 104.1 109.6 128.6 129.2 105.7 115.8 124.1 124.4 131.4 113.0 104.3 129.6 107.7 117.3 106.5 146.2 109.2 115.6 1 1 2 .2 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .2 1 0 0 .0 105.1 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .8 1 0 0 .0 113.5 106.8 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .2 1 0 0 .0 1 1 1 .1 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 1 0 .8 112.4 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 115.2 119.7 107.7 107.5 1 1 1 .1 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 113.8 108.5 105.1 104.9 105.3 2001 111.5 106.5 120.3 97.8 107.7 108.2 1 0 0 .0 113.5 103.7 103.6 104.3 99.4 2000 1 2 0 .8 1 2 0 .1 123.7 1 1 0 .8 124.3 104.1 162.6 107.7 1 2 1 .1 111.3 103.6 113.4 118.2 114.6 105.9 100.3 126.6 141.5 97.2 155.0 159.8 114.1 96.7 119.8 92.2 1 1 0 .0 115.0 105.5 97.6 91.9 123.1 103.3 106.1 110.3 107.6 109.4 104.6 98.2 91.7 1 2 2 .0 1 1 2 .6 131.2 136.1 103.6 84.4 161.8 177.5 Transportation and warehousing 8 8 .6 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .1 98.2 107.5 1 0 0 .0 99.1 101.4 102.4 98.2 115.4 105.2 104.9 105.1 115.7 99.8 109.4 115.5 1 1 1 .1 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .6 1 0 1 .8 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .1 99.4 106.5 103.4 95.9 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .1 inform ation 5111 5112 51213 5151 5152 Newspaper, book, and directory publishers........ Software publishers.................................................... Motion picture and video exhibition......................... Radio and television broadcasting........................... Cable and other subscription programming........ 97.2 41.3 113.5 100.9 5171 5172 W ired telecommunications carriers......................... Wireless telecommunications carriers.................... 65.5 76.0 70.8 73.5 76.8 85.6 81.7 94.8 85.8 97.1 90.6 98.3 97.5 103.0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 106.9 114.2 114.6 133.9 122.3 138.2 124.3 171.6 52211 Commercial banking................................................... 80.7 83.2 83.4 90.2 92.7 95.9 99.1 1 0 0 .0 98.4 101.5 105.1 102.3 89.8 72.2 97.8 73.1 104.4 70.9 106.1 76.2 107.9 83.0 1 0 1 .1 108.9 97.1 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .1 91.2 1 0 0 .0 104.7 114.4 108.8 113.3 104.8 113.4 102.9 79.8 74.5 8 6 .1 89.5 90.1 8 8 .6 96.5 1 0 0 .0 94.3 1 1 1 .2 116.7 118.1 1 0 2 .8 1 0 0 .2 108.7 100.3 101.3 107.1 104.4 103.2 104.9 98.2 103.1 106.8 1 0 2 .6 1 2 1 .2 106.3 121.4 1 0 2 .6 105.4 99.4 96.5 102.5 97.6 102.4 1 0 2 .2 1 0 1 .6 107.2 100.9 96.9 105.0 99.3 104.5 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .2 105.5 102.4 97.8 105.7 103.8 112.7 108.0 103.4 99.7 104.0 107.2 125.7 92.8 81.6 96.1 95.5 117.3 86.5 79.8 94.3 93.2 115.6 90.0 85.6 104.7 94.9 116.2 91.2 84.3 100.4 93.8 123.6 96.7 88.7 103.6 95.7 124.9 102.9 92.4 100.4 98.9 114.7 98.9 97.1 97.9 101.5 103.2 1 0 2 .1 1 0 1 .1 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .0 Finance and insurance Real estate and rental and leasing 532111 53212 Passenger car rental................................................. Truck, trailer and RV rental and leasing................. Professional, scientific, and technical services Advertising agencies................................................. 54181 7211 722 7221 7222 7223 7224 A ccom odation and food services Traveler accommodations......................................... Food services and drinking places......................... Full-service restaurants............................................. Limited-service eating places................................... Special food services................................................. Drinking places, alcoholic beverages..................... 97.4 1 0 1 .1 98.2 104.0 1 0 1 .1 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .1 1 0 0 .0 102.7 1 0 0 .0 1 0 2 .1 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 101.7 99.4 103.5 106.0 99.4 1 0 0 .0 105.3 102.7 103.8 105.0 99.4 106.6 103.7 100.5 109.5 106.8 1 0 0 .0 1 0 1 .1 1 0 1 .1 107.0 111.7 100.3 109.2 108.4 98.1 108.1 102.9 94.4 114.1 107.4 109.3 107.9 93.7 120.7 113.6 O ther services (except public adm inistration) 8111 81211 81221 8123 81292 Automotive repair and maintenance........................ Hair, nail and skin care services............................. Funeral homes and funeral services....................... Drycleaning and laundry services............................ Photofinishing............................................................. 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 1 0 0 .0 NOTE: Data reflect the conversion to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), replacing the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. NAiCS-based data by industry are not comparable to the Sic-based data. 114 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2003 https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis 47. Unemployment rates, approximating U.S. concepts, in nine countries, quarterly data seasonally adjusted A nnual average Country 2001 2002 2002 2001 I II III IV I II III IV United States....... 4.8 5.8 4.2 4.5 4.8 5.6 5.6 5.9 5.7 Canada.................. 6.4 6.7 5.1 8.5 7.0 6.3 5.4 6 .2 6.3 6.5 6 .8 7.1 7.0 6.9 6.5 4.8 8.5 6 .8 6 .8 6 .8 6 .6 6 .2 6 .1 4.9 8.4 5.2 8.5 5.5 8 .6 5.3 8.7 6.9 6.3 5.4 8.7 5.5 8.9 5.5 8.9 France 1 .................. 8 .8 5.9 Germany 1 .............. 8 .0 8.4 7.9 8 .0 8 .0 8 .1 8 .2 8.4 8.5 8 .6 Italy 2 ...................... 9.6 9.1 1 0 .0 9.7 9.5 9.4 9.2 9.1 9.1 9.0 Sweden 1 ................ 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 5.1 5.1 5.0 5.0 5.0 5.1 5.1 5.2 5.0 5.1 5.0 5.2 5.2 5.3 5.4 5.1 United Kingdom1... Preliminary for 2002 for Japan, France, Germany, Sweden, and 1 the United Kingdom. 2 Quarterly rates are for the first month of the quarter. NOTE: Quarterly figures for France and Germany are calculated by applying annual adjustment factors to current published data, See "Notes on the data" for information on breaks in series. For further qualifications and historical data, see C o m p a r a tiv e L a b o r F o r c e S t a tis tic s , T e n C o u n t r ie s , 1 9 5 9 - 2 0 0 2 C iv ilia n (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Apr. 14,2003), on the Internet at http://www.bls.gov/fls/home.htm and therefore should be viewed as less precise indicators of Monthly and quarterly unemployment rates, updated monthly, are unemployment under U.S. concepts than the annual figures. also on this site. Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 115 Current Labor Statistics: International Comparisons 48. Annual data: Employment status of the working-age population, approximating U.S. concepts, 10 countries [Numbers in thousands] ________________________ Em ployment status and country 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 United States..................................................................... Canada............................................................................... Australia............................................................................. Japan................................................................................. 128.105 14.177 8.557 129.200 14.308 8.613 131.056 14.400 8.771 132.304 14.517 8.995 133.943 14.669 9.115 136.297 14.958 9.204 137.673 15.237 9.339 139.368 15.536 9.466 142.583 15.789 9.678 143.734 16.027 9.817 144.863 16.475 9.964 65,040 65,470 65,780 65,990 66,450 67,200 67,240 67,090 66,990 66,870 France................................................................................ Germany............................................................................ 24,440 39,010 24.480 39,100 24,670 39,070 24.750 38,980 25,000 39,140 25.130 39,420 25.440 39,750 25,800 39,800 26.050 39,750 26.340 39,780 66,240 _ Italy...................................................................................... 22,910 22,570 22,450 22,460 22,570 22,680 22,960 23,130 23,340 23,540 Netherlands........................................................................ Sweden.............................................................................. United Kingdom................................................................. 6.920 4.520 28,410 7.020 4.443 28,050 7.150 4.418 27,990 7.200 4.460 28,040 7.390 4.459 28,140 7.530 4.418 28,270 7.610 4.402 28,380 7.830 4.430 28,610 8.130 4.489 28,780 8.290 4.530 28,870 66.4 65.9 63.9 63.4 55.6 58 ? 66.3 65.5 63.5 63.3 55 4 57 7 6 6 .6 6 6 .6 6 6 .8 67.1 65.2 63.9 63.1 55 5 64.9 64.6 62.9 64.7 64.6 63.0 65.0 64.3 63.2 67.1 65.4 64.3 62.8 67.1 65.8 64.2 62.4 67.1 65.9 64.7 62.0 56 5 Italy...................................................................................... 47.5 47.9 47.3 47.1 47.1 47.2 47.6 47.8 Netherlands................................................................ Sweden.............................................................................. United Kinadom................................................................. 57 5 65.7 63.1 58 0 64.5 62.5 58 fi 63.7 62.3 58 7 64.1 62.3 64.0 62.3 63.3 62.4 62.8 62.5 62.8 62.7 48.1 64 4 63.8 62.8 C iv ilia n la b o r fo rc e _ 23,750 _ 4.542 - P a r t ic ip a tio n ra te 1 United States..................................................................... Canada............................................................................... Australia............................................................................. JaDan................................................................................... France................................................................................ 6 6 .8 66.9 6 6 .0 6 6 .8 64.7 61.6 55 fi 64.7 60.8 48.3 48.6 63.7 62.7 63.6 - E m p lo y e d United States...................................................................... Canada............................................................................... Australia.............................................................................. Japan.................................................................................. 118.492 12.672 7.660 63,620 120.259 12.770 7.699 63,810 123.060 13.027 7.942 63,860 124.900 13.271 8.256 63,890 126.708 13.380 8.364 64,200 129.558 13.705 8.444 64,900 131.463 14.068 8.618 64,450 133.488 14.456 8.808 63,920 136.891 14.827 9.068 63,790 136.933 14.997 9.157 63,470 France................................................................................ Germany............................................................................ Italy...................................................................................... 2 2 .0 0 0 21.750 35,760 19,940 21.950 35,780 19,820 22.040 35,640 19,920 22,170 35,510 19,990 22,580 36,060 21,230 21.710 35,990 20,270 2 0 ,2 1 0 23.070 36,360 20,460 23.670 36,540 20,840 24.100 36,590 21,270 Netherlands........................................................................ Sweden............................................................................... United Kingdom................................................................. 6.550 4,265 25,530 6.570 4.028 25,120 6.660 3.992 25,320 6.730 4.056 25,600 6.950 4.019 25,850 7.160 3.973 26,290 7.310 4.034 26,600 7,580 4,117 26,890 36,390 7.900 4,229 27,200 8.090 4.303 27,400 136.485 15.325 9.334 62,650 _ _ 21,580 _ 4.308 - E m p lo y m e n t-p o p u la tio n r a tio 2 United States...................................................................... Canada............................................................................... Australia.............................................................................. JaDan.................................................................................. France................................................................................ Germany............................................................................ Netherlands........................................................................ Sweden............................................................................... United Kinadom................................................................. 61.5 58.9 57.2 62.0 50.1 54.2 61.7 58.5 56.8 61.7 49.1 53.2 44.0 43.0 42.0 54.5 62.0 56.7 54.2 58.5 56.0 54.6 57.6 56.4 62.5 59.0 57.8 61.3 49.0 52.6 62.9 59.4 59.2 60.9 49.1 52.4 41.5 63.2 59.1 59.3 60.9 49.0 52.0 41.6 54.9 58.3 56.9 56.4 57.7 57.3 63.8 59.7 59.0 61.0 49.0 51.6 64.3 61.3 59.8 59.4 50.4 52.6 64.4 62.1 60.6 59.0 51.4 52.7 41.6 64.1 60.4 59.3 60.2 49.6 52.3 41.9 42.3 57.8 56.9 58.1 58.6 57.6 58.6 60.4 58.4 59.0 63.7 61.9 60.4 58.4 51.9 52.6 62.7 62.4 60.6 57.5 _ _ 42.9 43.6 62.6 60.1 59.4 63.9 60.5 59.5 44.1 _ 60.3 _ U n e m p lo y e d United States...................................................................... Canada............................................................................... Australia.............................................................................. Japan.................................................................................. 9.613 1.505 897 1,420 8.940 1.539 914 1,660 7.996 1.373 829 1,920 France................................................................................ Germany............................................................................. 2.430 2,620 1,680 2.770 3,110 2,300 2.920 3,320 Netherlands........................................................................ Sweden............................................................................... United Kingdom................................................................. 370 255 2,880 440 415 2,930 7.404 1.246 739 2 ,1 0 0 7.236 1.289 751 2,250 6.739 1.252 760 2,300 1.169 721 2,790 6 .2 1 0 5.880 1.080 658 3,170 5.692 962 611 3,200 6.801 1.031 661 3,400 2.380 3,210 2,240 3,190 8.378 1.150 629 3,590 _ _ 2,500 2,270 2,160 220 200 _ 260 1,580 227 1,470 234 - 2.970 3,510 2.960 3,910 2.870 3,690 2,510 2.800 3,200 2,640 2,650 2,690 2,750 2,730 3,440 2,670 490 426 2,670 480 404 2,440 440 440 2,290 370 445 1,980 300 368 1,780 250 313 1,720 U n e m p lo y m e n t ra te United States...................................................................... Canada............................................................................... Australia.............................................................................. Japan................................................................................... France................................................................................ Germany............................................................................. Netherlands........................................................................ Sweden............................................................................... United Kingdom................................................................. 7.5 6.9 1 0 .6 1 0 .8 10.5 1 0 .6 2 .2 2.5 11.3 6 .1 5.6 9.5 9.4 2.9 8 .6 8 .8 8 .2 8 .2 1 1 .8 3.2 11.3 1 1 .8 8 .0 8.5 8 .2 3.4 11.9 9.0 9.9 4.5 7.7 7.7 4 .i 11.3 9.3 7.3 1 0 .2 1 1 .2 1 1 .8 11.7 11.9 5.3 5.6 6.3 9.3 10.4 6.9 9.6 9.5 6.7 9.1 8.7 6 .0 4.9 9.9 6.7 1 0 .1 5.4 9.9 8 .1 4.9 8.4 8.3 3.4 1 0 .1 7.0 1 Labor force as a percent of the working-age population. For further qualifications and historical data, see 2 Employment as a percent of the working-age population. S t a t is t ic s , T e n C o u n t r ie s , NOTE: See notes on the data for information on breaks in series. 116 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2003 4.2 7.0 7.0 4.7 6.3 4.8 9.1 4.7 6.4 6.7 5.1 8.5 5.8 7.0 6.3 5.4 8 .6 8.1 8 .0 8.4 1 2 .0 11.5 10.7 9.6 9.1 3.9 8.4 63 3.2 7.1 2.7 5.8 5.5 2.4 5.0 5.1 5.2 5.2 1 0 .6 6 .0 4.0 6.1 C o m p a r a t i v e C iv ilia n L a b o r F o r c e 1959-2001 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Apr. 14,2003), on the Internet at h ttp ://w w w .b ls .g o v /fls /h o m e .h tm Dash indicates data are not available. 8 .8 _ 49. Annual indexes of m anufacturing productivity and related measures, 12 countries [1992 = 100] It e m a n d c o u n t r y 1960 1970 1980 1990 1991 1993 1994 1995 1997 1996 1998 1999 2000 2001 Output per hour United States........................................................ Canada................................................................. Japan.................................................................... Belgium................................................................ Denmark............................................................... France.................................................................. Germany............................................................... Italy....................................................................... Netherlands.......................................................... Norway................................................................. Sweden................................................................. United Kingdom.................................................... 37.8 13.8 18.0 29.9 2 2 .0 29.2 23.6 18.5 37.4 27.3 30.0 54.9 37.5 32.9 52.7 43.1 52.0 44.3 37.9 58.8 52.2 43.2 70.5 72.9 63.2 65.4 90.4 58.9 39.2 57.6 75.8 83.6 60.4 78.2 91.4 88.7 85.3 84.4 76.8 104.4 90.7 87.2 6 6 .8 77.2 74.2 6 8 .8 77.5 73.1 54.3 96.9 93.4 94.4 96.8 99.1 93.8 99.0 95.8 98.5 97.6 94.6 89.2 97.9 95.3 99.0 99.1 99.4 97.0 98.3 95.9 99.6 98.2 95.5 93.8 1 0 1 .6 98.3 99.0 1 0 2.1 107.3 105.8 101.7 102.5 1 1 0 .8 1 0 0 .8 - 103.3 108.4 99.6 107.3 103.9 108.2 109.5 104.9 113.2 99.6 119.4 107.1 103.5 105.9 96.3 97.0 95.6 95.7 92.4 96.5 98.4 101.7 101.9 101.4 114.1 94.9 101.4 105.6 100.3 95.1 102.4 104.6 104.6 117.1 106.1 1 0 0 .6 1 0 1 .8 101.4 1 0 1 .6 113.8 112.4 1 1 1 .0 113.2 - 113.9 1 1 2 .2 108.0 118.2 100.7 121.9 104.9 117.0 109.7 116.1 117.0 114.6 113.9 108.1 1 2 0 .2 121.3 113.5 126.5 113.1 1 2 1 .0 1 2 1 .2 127.0 129.2 127.7 120.3 - 121.9 119.4 109.9 122.3 102.5 124.5 103.8 132.3 105.2 104.9 95.2 107.2 108.1 107.3 128.4 107.8 121.3 119.6 103.0 106.6 106.7 104.6 92.5 105.4 108.7 110.3 131.1 108.5 127.9 127.7 106.5 113.8 115.2 109.7 95.7 108.8 111.5 114.2 138.0 109.9 104.0 106.4 89.1 92.0 103.6 109.0 88.7 91.1 105.4 112.4 1 0 2 .0 1 1 0 .0 125.0 99.9 139.5 107.0 135.3 116.0 126.9 129.5 132.7 120.4 109.9 128.5 103.6 149.7 1 1 1 .6 142.9 118.4 134.1 133.4 - 145.6 116.1 128.1 134.1 - 142.5 127.9 113.0 133.8 104.5 158.0 118.0 146.3 128.2 115.0 105.3 160.4 119.8 147.0 148.8 107.6 141.3 143.9 99.1 121.7 126.7 126.3 Output United States........................................................ Canada................................................................. Japan.................................................................... Belgium................................................................. Denmark............................................................... France.................................................................. Germany............................................................... Italy....................................................................... Netherlands.......................................................... Norway................................................................. Sweden................................................................. United Kingdom.................................................... 33.4 10.7 30.7 40.8 31.0 41.5 23.0 31.5 57.4 45.9 67.3 64.1 70.9 48.1 59.1 90.6 80.7 90.2 92.1 88.3 77.8 170.7 136.5 140.8 142.3 97.6 170.5 153.6 168.3 224.6 104.4 107.1 104.4 174.7 129.0 148.5 136.3 108.5 156.1 153.9 154.7 208.8 14.9 23.7 17.1 16.4 13.7 13.3 10.4 20.7 5.3 6 8 .0 106.0 97.1 1 0 2 .0 1 1 0 .1 100.7 101.5 99.8 102.3 99.3 100.4 99.0 104.1 105.4 1 0 0 .0 104.8 113.5 102.9 104.3 103.7 105.6 100.4 103.9 103.1 101.5 1 0 1 .0 1 0 2 .8 99.1 99.1 99.4 99.9 100.9 1 1 1 .1 118.4 119.6 98.9 104.2 1 1 1 .6 133.1 132.8 116.4 115.7 115.0 97.2 110.7 114.8 113.7 147.6 141.2 141.0 101.9 118.0 115.1 118.7 95.8 110.5 118.1 113.6 157.8 1 1 0 .8 1 1 1 .1 168.7 113.3 105.2 117.5 82.7 90.1 90.0 80.7 104.4 121.5 80.3 91.1 89.4 79.6 100.5 92.0 109.6 105.4 99.6 125.6 80.2 91.7 87.1 79.5 100.7 92.5 105.4 106.8 96.0 1 0 0 .2 1 2 2 .2 122.9 124.1 101.7 113.9 123.7 1 1 0 .2 1 0 1 .8 114.6 108.9 167.4 110.7 Total hours United States........................................................ Canada................................................................. Japan.................................................................... Belgium................................................................. Denmark............................................................... France.................................................................. Germany............................................................... Italy....................................................................... Netherlands.......................................................... Norway................................................................. Sweden................................................................. United Kingdom.................................................... 107.5 114.6 95.6 119.7 1 0 1 .1 132.9 110.5 113.8 111.7 134.7 124.0 160.5 103.7 101.4 103.4 116.4 118.1 55.6 47.6 58.5 52.5 49.6 40.9 53.6 30.4 64.4 39.0 37.3 32.1 1 0 0 .1 1 0 2.1 102.9 104.1 103.6 100.9 1 0 0 .8 101.4 1 0 0 .1 94.7 94.7 94.8 95.1 90.8 95.2 96.8 1 0 2.1 109.0 106.6 94.9 97.6 90.8 88.3 90.5 90.1 92.7 90.9 89.4 87.6 90.9 92.3 87.8 82.9 95.6 95.0 96.4 97.3 95.9 96.4 91.5 94.2 95.3 97.5 95.5 93.8 102.7 78.8 65.2 92.5 80.3 54.9 61.3 69.4 41.0 93.7 50.3 51.0 59.0 93.7 94.6 95.9 93.0 93.5 96.9 90.3 91.5 92.3 94.6 92.9 92.9 97.6 99.6 97.4 98.1 96.5 99.3 93.1 98.2 95.6 99.2 78.8 67.4 51.8 88.3 58.8 76.8 59.6 59.0 82.9 63.3 70.2 77.7 93.7 98.0 83.8 89.5 91.2 94.1 87.3 94.1 89.1 94.0 91.3 93.9 103.6 103.0 91.9 93.6 92.7 8 6 .8 97.6 92.4 105.0 98.1 99.1 - - 8 8 .0 89.6 90.0 80.1 99.0 91.1 92.1 84.9 99.3 91.5 106.6 105.3 102.7 91.3 81.2 97.5 90.4 107.6 105.3 104.5 104.3 104.5 91.8 113.7 105.8 103.6 107.9 106.0 108.3 109.2 - 109.4 107.0 109.2 110.9 - 111.5 109.3 112.9 114.9 - 117.4 110.5 115.8 116.6 - 1 2 2 .1 116.3 129.3 124.6 124.0 133.0 129.3 129.6 1 1 2 .0 1 0 0 .6 1 0 2 .8 97.1 123.9 77.4 90.7 86.3 78.8 99.7 - 103.4 104.3 92.4 Compensation per hour United States........................................................ Canada................................................................. Japan.................................................................... Belgium................................................................. Denmark............................................................... France.................................................................. Germany............................................................... Italy....................................................................... Netherlands.......................................................... Norway................................................................. Sweden................................................................ . United Kingdom.................................................... 1 0 .0 4.3 5.4 4.6 4.3 8.1 1 .8 6.4 4.7 4.1 3.0 2 0 .2 - 31.1 43.8 41.7 25.2 24.0 39.8 11.9 53.3 1 1 .8 10.7 6.1 1 0 2 .0 1 0 2 .8 104.8 104.6 1 0 2 .6 106.4 105.7 103.8 101.5 97.4 104.6 105.6 103.7 104.9 106.1 106.0 111.7 106.8 108.2 104.4 1 1 0 .0 1 1 2.1 1 1 2 .0 1 1 2 .6 117.5 111.3 110.7 109.2 106.5 107.9 122.3 119.0 113.0 113.6 114.4 109.5 124.7 123.0 115.8 118.7 119.4 113.9 126.5 93.5 97.5 94.0 94.7 103.7 97.8 107.4 91.9 96.2 93.3 90.5 99.7 91.9 104.4 111.9 94.7 116.4 90.2 108.2 92.8 97.7 95.5 90.2 102.9 101.9 95.6 104.8 83.8 99.7 94.8 94.3 97.6 96.4 96.4 96.6 104.7 103.0 93.7 108.4 87.4 102.9 98.5 82.8 125.9 94.2 91.4 93.4 98.2 77.9 92.4 92.3 63.2 86.4 94.8 83.0 131.7 105.2 104.0 103.5 114.2 77.9 102.7 106.4 71.3 91.9 1 0 0 .0 106.7 1 2 2 .2 1 2 0 .6 125.7 124.4 120.5 112.3 115.2 118.3 - 131.1 113.9 114.5 1 2 1 .1 1 2 0 .8 133.5 127.8 131.0 140.0 131.8 135.2 133.1 117.8 115.0 125.9 126.6 137.7 132.6 147.6 137.2 140.4 Unit labor costs: National currency basis United States........................................................ Canada................................................................. Japan.................................................................... Belgium................................................................. Denmark............................................................... France.................................................................. Germany............................................................... Italy....................................................................... Netherlands.......................................................... Norway................................................................. Sweden................................................................. United Kingdom.................................................... 26.4 31.3 30.1 15.4 19.4 27.8 7.5 34.6 12.7 15.0 9.8 2 0 .1 2 0 .6 14.1 1 0 0 .6 96.4 1 0 1 .1 102.3 103.7 101.9 104.5 104.3 1 0 2.1 1 0 0 .0 101.9 90.8 1 0 0 .1 1 0 0 .8 98.5 93.6 101.5 97.9 96.2 97.9 1 0 2 .0 1 1 0 .0 94.0 1 1 0 .8 91.9 105.5 8 8 .2 105.2 1 1 1 .1 96.5 125.7 89.2 112.7 90.2 96.8 90.8 91.4 105.4 87.7 107.4 113.4 96.6 128.4 86.3 116.2 91.7 96.1 85.4 90.8 1 0 1 .8 84.8 104.4 113.1 97.9 134.0 83.4 114.5 91.4 101.5 89.8 93.9 101.7 86.5 106.6 115.4 140.1 85.5 117.2 Unit labor costs: U.S. dollar basis United States........................................................ Canada................................................................. Japan.................................................................... Belgium................................................................. Denmark............................................................... France.................................................................. Germany............................................................... Italy....................................................................... Netherlands.......................................................... Norway................................................................. Sweden................................................................ United Kingdom.................................................... 32.9 1 1 .0 19.4 13.4 2 1 .0 10.4 15.0 16.1 1 1 .1 16.9 15.6 36.0 15.5 27.0 2 0 .2 23.0 17.1 23.3 25.9 17.5 23.1 19.1 97.6 105.1 91.7 92.3 91.0 93.1 87.5 97.5 89.9 95.0 96.3 1 0 0.1 1 0 0 .6 90.3 115.4 95.1 96.5 95.2 98.7 81.6 96.6 89.2 67.8 85.6 93.5 86.4 109.6 98.4 108.0 1 0 1 .2 111.5 87.9 98.1 106.6 79.8 93.2 91.9 84.0 97.7 81.2 91.0 83.3 94.0 80.9 85.3 1 0 2 .1 6 8 .8 100.4 92.8 79.6 92.4 79.9 92.7 79.1 93.3 78.8 85.5 103.5 65.3 105.7 90.2 78.8 1 0 1 .2 77.6 91.0 75.4 91.4 76.9 82.1 1 0 2 .2 60.8 106.4 91.7 78.2 100.4 6 6 .8 75.9 63.2 76.9 66.4 72.1 94.5 53.0 98.3 91.4 79.2 93.6 67.0 73.7 62.5 76.2 65.7 96.8 48.2 95.5 NOTE: Data for Germany for years before 1991 are for the former West Germany. Data for 1991 onward are for unified Germany. Dash indicates data not available. https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 117 Current Labor Statistics: International Comparisons 50. Occupational injury and illness rates by industry,1United States Incidence rates per 100 full-time workers3 I n d u s try a n d ty p e o f c a s e 1989 1 1990 1991 1992 1993 4 1994 4 1995 4 1996 4 1997 4 1998 4 1999 4 2000 4 2001 4 PRIVATE SECTOR5 5 3.8 8.4 8 .1 3.8 3.6 - - - 4.1 84.0 84 3.9 86.5 8 9 3.9 93.8 8 4.0 78.7 10 9 5.7 100.9 11 6 10 8 11 6 11 2 m n 9.7 5.9 1 1 2 .2 5.4 108.3 5.4 126.9 5.0 - 4.7 - 4.3 - 8.5 4.8 137.2 3 5.0 119.5 74 4.5 129.6 73 4.1 204.7 6 .8 3.9 - 6.3 3.9 - 14.3 13 0 11 8 148.1 13 1 5.8 161.9 12 2 143.3 14 2 6.7 147.9 5.5 - 139 6.5 137.3 13 4 6.4 137.6 12 0 12 2 5.5 132.0 5.4 142.7 13 8 6.5 147.1 13 8 6.3 144.6 12 8 6 .0 160.1 14.6 6.9 144.9 14.7 6.9 153.1 13 5 6.3 151.3 168.3 13.1 5.8 113.0 13.2 5.8 120.7 12.7 5.6 121.5 14.1 14.2 86 Lost workday cases........................................................................... Lost workdays..................................................................................... 8 .8 3.4 3.3 - 3.1 - 3.0 - 3.0 - 2 .8 3.9 4.1 - 3.9 - 3.4 3.6 3.6 - 3.9 - 3.2 3.7 2.9 2.7 3.0 2.4 - 5.5 - fi 4.9 - 99 4.5 - 95 4.4 - 4.0 - 4.2 - 4.1 _ 4.0 _ 11 5 5.1 - 10 9 5.1 - 9.8 4.4 - 9-0 4.0 R5 3.7 - 3.9 - 3.7 - 3.9 - 3.5 - 12 1 11 1 10 2 9-9 5.4 165.8 5.1 - 5.0 - 4.8 - 90 4.3 - 8-7 4.3 - 4.1 - 3.8 - 3.7 - 4.0 - 13.8 12 8 12 5 5.8 - 11 1 10 4 4.8 - 10 0 5.8 - 4.1 4.4 4.3 4.1 - 12 5 5.4 124.6 12 1 12 2 11 6 5.5 5.3 fi 4.9 - 10 5.3 - 4.7 - 4.6 4.5 4.1 - 13.6 5.7 122.9 13.4 5.5 126.7 13.1 5.4 13 5 5.7 - 12 8 11 6 11 3 10 7 5.6 5.1 5.1 5.0 - 4.8 16.8 8.3 172.0 16.3 7.6 165.8 15.9 7.6 - 15.7 7.7 - 14.9 7.0 14.2 13.2 1 0 .6 6 .1 - 13.0 6.7 - 1 2 .1 - 13.5 6.5 - - 5.5 - 15.9 7.2 - 14.8 15.0 7.0 - 13.9 6.4 - 1 2 .2 1 2 .0 1 1 .0 5.8 - 11.5 5.9 1 1 .2 5.4 - 11.4 5.7 128.4 14.6 6.5 - 5.9 - 5.7 - 14.8 13.6 12.3 5.7 - 1 1 .8 1 1 .8 6 .0 5.7 - 6 .0 10.7 5.4 10.4 5.5 - 1 0 .1 6.1 13.2 6.5 - 12.4 6 .8 15.0 7.2 - 14.0 7.0 - 12.9 6.3 - 1 2 .6 10.7 5.3 14.2 6.4 - 13.9 6.5 - 1 2 .6 11.9 5.5 - 1 0 .0 9.5 4.0 - 8.5 3.7 - Agriculture, forestry, and fis h in g 5 Lost workday cases........................................................................... Lost workdays.................................................................................... Mining Lost workday cases........................................................................... Lost workdays.................................................................................... 8 fi 5Q 2 C onstruction Lost workday cases........................................................................... Lost workdays.................................................................................... 6 .8 6.1 10 General building contractors: Lost workday cases........................................................................... Lost workdays.................................................................................... Heaw construction. exceDt buildina: Lost workday cases........................................................................... Lost workdays.................................................................................... SDeclal trades contractors: Lost workday cases........................................................................... Lost workdays.................................................................................... 6 .1 5.0 - 4.7 M anufacturing Lost workday cases........................................................................... Lost workdays.................................................................................... 10 3 4.8 Durable goods: Lost workday cases........................................................................... Lost workdays.................................................................................... 6 .0 6 .0 116.5 123.3 Lumber and wood products: T otal case s.................................................................................... Lost workday cases........................................................................ Lost workdays................................................................................. 18.4 9.4 177.5 18.1 Furniture and fixtures: T otal case s..................................................................................... Lost workday cases........................................................................ Lost workdays................................................................................. 16.1 7.2 - 16.9 7.8 Stone, dav. and alass Droducts: Total case s..................................................................................... Lost workday cases........................................................................ Lost workdays................................................................................. 15.5 7.4 149.8 15.4 7.3 160.5 18.7 19.0 8.1 8.1 8 .8 172.5 6 .6 156.0 152.2 13.8 6.3 - 17.5 7.1 175.5 17.0 7.3 - 16.8 7.2 - 16.5 7.2 - 15.0 16.8 16.4 6.7 - 15.8 6.9 - 14.4 Primary metal industries: T otal case s .................................................................................... Lost workday cases........................................................................ Lost workdays................................................................................. 168.3 180.2 17.7 7.4 169.1 Fabricated metal Droducts: Total case s.................................................................................... Lost workday cases........................................................................ Lost workdays................................................................................ 18.5 7.9 147.6 18.7 7.9 155.7 17.4 7.1 146.6 144.0 16.2 6.7 - 1 2 .1 1 2 .0 1 1 .2 1 1 .1 1 1 .1 4.4 8 6 .6 Industrial machinery and equipment: T otal case s.................................................................................... Lost workday cases........................................................................ Lost workdays................................................................................. 8 6 .8 4.7 88.9 Electronic and other electrical eauioment: Total case s..................................................................................... Lost workday cases........................................................................ Lost workdays................................................................................. 9.1 3.9 77.5 9.1 3.8 79.4 17.7 4.8 6 .8 6 .6 - 6 .8 - 6 .2 - 6 .8 - - 6 .0 - 1 1 .6 1 1 .2 4.2 87.7 4.2 - 4.4 - 4.4 - 9.9 4.0 - 8.4 3.6 81.2 8.3 3.5 - 8.3 3.6 - 7.6 3.3 - 6 .8 6 .6 5.9 5.7 3.7 83.0 3.1 - 3.1 - 2 .8 18.3 7.0 166.1 18.7 7.1 186.6 18.5 7.1 - 19.6 7.8 - 18.6 7.9 16.3 7.0 15.4 14.6 6 .6 6 .6 6 .0 8 .6 4.1 - 4.3 - 6.3 - 5.1 - 11.1 11.1 5.3 - 8 .2 1 1 .0 3.6 - 6 .0 2 .8 5.7 2.9 5.0 2.5 - 13.7 6.4 13.7 6.3 1 2 .6 - - Transportation eauioment: Total case s..................................................................................... Lost workday cases........................................................................ Lost workdays................................................................................. 138.6 17.8 6.9 153.7 Instruments and related Droducts: T otal cases..................................................................................... Lost workday cases........................................................................ Lost workdays................................................................................. 5.6 2.5 55.4 5.9 2.7 57.8 5.9 2.7 65.3 5.6 2.5 - 5.9 2.7 - 5.3 2.4 - 5.1 2.3 - 4.8 2.3 - 4.0 1.9 - 4.0 4.5 4.0 2.7 64.4 1 .8 2 .2 2 .0 - - 11.3 5.1 113.1 11.3 5.1 104.0 10.7 5.0 108.2 1 0 .0 9.9 4.5 - 9.1 4.3 - 9.5 4.4 8.9 4.2 - 8 .1 3.9 - 8.4 4.0 7.2 3.6 - 6.4 3.2 - Miscellaneous manufacturina industries: Total case s..................................................................................... Lost workday cases........................................................................ Lost workdays................................................................................. 6 .8 1 1 .1 5.1 97.6 See footnotes at end of table. 118 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis October 2003 4.6 - - - 6 .0 - 50. C o n tin u e d — O c c u p a tio n a l injury a n d illness rates b y industry,1 United States Incidence rates per 100 workers3 In d u s try a n d ty p e o f c a s e 1989 1 1990 1991 1992 Nondurable goods: Total cases..................................................................................... Lost workday cases......................................................................... Lost workdays.................................................................................. 5.5 107.8 Food and kindred products: Total cases................................................................................... Lost workday cases...................................................................... Lost workdays.............................................................................. 18.5 9.3 174.7 2 0 2 .6 Tobacco Droducts: T otal cases................................................................................... Lost workday cases...................................................................... Lost workdays.............................................................................. 8.7 3.4 64.2 7.7 3.2 62.3 52.0 Textile mill products: Total cases................................................................................... Lost workday cases...................................................................... Lost workdays.............................................................................. 10.3 4.2 81.4 9.6 4.0 85.1 ADDarel and other textile products: Total cases................................................................................... Lost workday cases...................................................................... Lost workdays.............................................................................. 8 .6 8 .8 3.8 80.5 Paper and allied Droducts: T otal cases................................................................................... Lost workday cases...................................................................... Lost workdays................................................................................ 12.7 5.8 132.9 Printina and publishina: Total cases................................................................................... Lost workday cases...................................................................... Lost workdays............................................................................... Chemicals and allied Droducts: Total cases................................................................................... Lost workday cases...................................................................... Lost workdays............................................................................... 1994 4 1995 4 1996 4 1997 4 1998 4 10.5 5.1 - 9.9 4.9 - 9.2 4.6 - 8 .8 8 .2 4.3 - 7.8 4.2 - 7.8 4.2 - 6 .8 4.4 - 12.7 7.3 - 12.4 7.3 - 10.9 6.3 6.7 4.2 - 1 2 1 .8 2 0 .0 19.5 9.9 207.2 18.8 9.5 211.9 17.6 8.9 - 17.1 9.2 - 16.3 8.7 - 15.0 14.5 8 .0 8 .0 - - 13.6 7.5 - 6.4 6 .0 6.7 2 .8 2 .2 - - 6.4 3.4 - 6 .2 2 .6 5.9 2.7 - 5.5 2.4 42.9 5.3 2.4 - 5.6 2 .8 5.8 2.3 - - 3.1 - 4.4 88.3 9.9 4.2 87.1 9.7 4.1 - 8.7 4.0 - 7.8 3.6 - 6.7 3.1 - 7.4 3.4 - 6.4 3.2 - 3.2 - 9.2 4.2 99.9 9.5 4.0 104.6 9.0 3.8 - 8.9 3.9 - 8 .2 7.0 3.1 - 5.8 6.1 3.6 - 7.4 3.3 - 6 .2 3.9 92.1 2 .6 2 .8 - - 3.0 - 1 2 .1 1 1 .2 1 1 .0 5.0 122.7 5.0 125.9 9.6 4.5 - 8.5 4.2 - 7.9 3.8 - 7.3 3.7 - 7.1 3.7 - 7.0 3.7 - 6.5 3.4 - 6 .0 5.5 124.8 9.9 4.6 - 6.9 3.3 63.8 6.9 3.3 69.8 6.7 3.2 74.5 7.3 3.2 74.8 6.9 3.1 - 6.7 3.0 - 6.4 3.0 - 6 .0 5.0 5.1 2 .8 2 .6 2 .6 - 5.7 2.7 - 5.4 2 .8 - - - 4.6 2.4 - 7.0 3.2 63.4 6.5 3.1 61.6 6.4 3.1 62.4 6 .0 5.9 2.7 - 5.7 4.8 2.3 - 4.0 2 .2 2 .1 - 4.4 2.3 - 4.2 - 4.8 2.4 - 4.2 2 .8 5.5 2.7 - - - 6 .6 6 .6 6 .2 2 .8 4.6 2.5 - 2 .2 1 .8 1 .8 71.2 4.8 2.4 - 4.1 2.9 6 8 .2 4.7 2.3 - 3.9 3.1 77.3 5.2 2.5 - 4.3 3.3 - - - 3.7 1.9 - 2.9 1.4 - 16.2 7.8 151.3 15.1 7.2 150.9 14.5 14.0 6.7 - 12.9 6.5 - 12.3 6.3 - 11.9 5.8 - 1 1 .2 1 0 .1 153.3 13.9 6.5 - 5.8 - 5.5 - 10.7 5.8 - 8.7 4.8 - 1 2 .1 1 2 .1 1 2 .1 1 2 .0 5.5 - 5.3 - 11.4 4.8 - 10.7 4.5 - 1 0 .6 5.4 128.5 9.8 4.5 - 10.3 5.0 - 9.0 4.3 - 8.7 4.4 - 7.3 4.3 - 7.3 4.4 - 6.9 4.3 - 6.9 4.3 - 2.5 - 9.9 6 8 .1 1 0 .1 2 .8 64.2 5.9 8 .2 4.1 - 147.2 13.6 6.5 130.4 5.9 152.3 12.5 5.9 140.8 Transportation and public utilities Total cases..................................................................................... Lost workday cases......................................................................... Lost workdays.................................................................................. 9.2 5.3 121.5 9.6 5.5 134.1 9.3 5.4 140.0 9.1 5.1 144.0 9.5 5.4 - 9.3 5.5 - 9.1 5.2 - 8.7 5.1 - Wholesale and retail trade Total cases..................................................................................... Lost workday cases......................................................................... Lost workdays.................................................................................. 8 .0 7.9 3.5 65.6 7.6 3.4 72.0 8.4 3.5 80.1 8.1 3.6 63.5 3.4 7.9 3.4 - 7.5 3.2 - 2.9 - Wholesale trade: Total cases..................................................................................... Lost workday cases......................................................................... Lost workdays................................................................................... 7.7 4.0 71.9 7.4 3.7 71.5 7.2 3.7 79.2 7.6 3.6 82.4 7.8 3.7 - 7.7 3.8 - 7.5 3.6 - Retail trade: Total cases..................................................................................... Lost workday cases......................................................................... Lost workdays.................................................................................. 8.1 8.1 3.4 63.2 7.7 3.3 69.1 8.7 3.4 79.2 8 .2 3.4 60.0 3.3 - 7.9 3.3 - 7.5 3.0 - Finance, insurance, and real estate Total cases..................................................................................... Lost workday cases......................................................................... Lost workdays................................................................................... 2 .0 2.4 2.9 2.9 2.7 2 .6 .9 17.6 1.1 1.1 1 .2 1 .2 1.1 1 .0 27.3 24.1 32.9 - - - Services Total cases..................................................................................... Lost workday cases......................................................................... Lost workdays.................................................................................. 5.5 2.7 51.2 6.5 2 .8 7.1 3.0 6.7 2 .8 2 .8 2 .8 56.4 60.0 6 8 .6 - - i f ic a t io n M a n u a l , M a n u a l, 2 16.2 8 .0 6 .0 S t a n d a r d In d u s t r ia l C la s s 1987 Edition. For this reason, they are not strictly comparable with data for the years 1985-88, which were based on the S ta n d a rd I n d u s t r ia l C la s s if ic a t io n 2.4 6 .2 6 .8 - 4.3 8 .2 4.8 - 2 .1 6 .0 6 .1 - 5.9 2.7 - 6.5 3.2 - 6.5 3.3 - 6.3 3.3 - 5.8 3.1 - 2 .8 6.9 6 .8 2.9 - 6.5 2.7 - 6.1 2 .8 2.5 - 5.9 2.5 - 5.7 2.4 - 6 .6 3.4 - - https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis calculated 6 .6 5.3 - 2.4 .9 - 2 .2 .7 .5 - 1 .8 1.9 1 .8 .9 - .8 .8 - - .7 - 6.4 6 .0 5.2 2.4 4.9 4.6 2 .6 5.6 2.5 4.9 2 .8 2 .2 2 .2 2 .2 - - - - - - - N = number of injuries and illnesses or lost workdays; EH = total hours worked by all employees during the calendar year; and 200,000 = base for 100 full-time equivalent workers (working 40 hours per week, 50 4 6 The incidence rates represent the number of Injuries and illnesses or lost workdays per were 3.2 - 2.7 - Beginning with the 1993 survey, lost workday estimates will not be generated. As of from work by industry and for groups of workers sustaining similar work disabilities. Occupational Injuries. and 5.0 2.4 - 6.5 fatalities, a basic element of workplace safety, BLS implemented the Census of Fatal workers - 2 .8 1992, BLS began generating percent distributions and the median number of days away full-time 5.2 2.7 weeks per year). 1972 Edition, 1977 Supplement. Beginning with the 1992 survey, the annual survey measures only nonfatal injuries and 100 3.8 - 6.7 3.0 - 6 .8 illnesses, while past surveys covered both fatal and nonfatal Incidents. To better address 3 200 1 4 10.7 5.0 - 11.3 5.3 Leather and leather Droducts: Total cases................................................................................... Lost workday cases...................................................................... Lost workdays............................................................................... Data for 1989 and subsequent years are based on the 2000 4 11.5 5.5 119.7 Rubber and miscellaneous Dlastics Droducts: Total cases................................................................................... Lost workday cases...................................................................... Lost workdays............................................................................... 1 1999 4 11.7 5.6 116.9 1 1 .6 Petroleum and coal Droducts: Total cases................................................................................... Lost workday cases...................................................................... Lost workdays............................................................................... 1993 4 as (N/EH) X 200,000, Excludes farms with fewer than 11 employees since 1976. N o t e : D ash indicates d ata not available. where: Monthly Labor Review O ctober 2003 119 Current Labor Statistics: 51. Injury and Illness F a ta l o c c u p a tio n a l injuries b y e v e n t o r e x p o s u re , 1 9 9 7 -2 0 0 2 Fatalities Event or exposure1 20012 average Num ber T o t a l ............................................................................................... Highway incident................................................................................... Collision between vehicles, mobile equipment............................. Moving in same direction.............................................................. Moving in opposite directions, oncoming................................... Vehicle struck stationary object or equipment............................. Noncollision incident......................................................................... Nonhighway (farm, industrial premises) incident............................. Overturned.......................................................................................... 5 524 100 2,593 1,421 697 126 254 148 300 369 300 368 2,524 2,381 1,372 635 155 43 25 202 4 3 68 A s s a u l t s a n d v io l e n t a c t s .................................................................................. 964 Homicides.............................................................................................. Shooting............................................................................................. Stabbing............................................................................................. Other, including bombing................................................................ Self-inflicted injuries.............................................................................. 709 567 64 78 F a ll s ............................................................................................................ Fall from ladder.................................................................................. E x p o s u r e t o h a r m f u l s u b s t a n c e s o r e n v ir o n m e n t s ......................... Contact with electric current................................................................ Contact with overhead power lines................................................ Contact with temperature extremes................................................... Oxygen deficiency................................................................................. O t h e r e v e n t s o r e x p o s u r e s 3............................................................................. 6 7 6 6 3 3 6 1 1 995 562 352 58 290 156 126 962 553 343 60 266 144 873 506 303 38 231 110 2 122 116 2 737 654 155 91 61 810 700 123 159 91 84 714 634 126 143 87 63 529 291 134 41 106 52 89 71 499 285 124 35 96 49 83 59 538 289 10 122 2 197 188 165 24 13 21 60 98 49 90 60 15 11 8 1 1 4 16 9 5 1 4 13 11 2 3 2 1 5 1 2 1 2 1 3 Totals for 2001 exclude fatalities from the September 11 terrorist attacks. Classification Structures. 2 356 71 64 3 840 609 469 58 82 199 111 Fall from scaffold, staging............................................................... Fall on same level................................................................................. 145 326 373 312 322 164 192 11 908 643 509 58 76 230 221 Struck by object.................................................................................... Struck by falling object..................................................................... Struck by flying object....................................................................... Caught in or compressed by equipment or objects........................ Caught in running equipment or machinery.................................. Caught in or crushed in collapsing materials................................... Based on the 1992 BLS Occupational Injury and Illness 1,409 727 142 257 138 297 339 273 326 158 247 383 90 62 248 382 99 C o n t a c t w it h o b j e c t s a n d e q u ip m e n t ......................................................... Percent 5 915 202 Worker struck by a vehicle.................................................................. W ater v e h ic le ........................................................................................ Rail vehicle............................................................................................ N um ber 036 6 T r a n s p o r t a t io n i n c i d e n t s ................................................................................... 1 2002 1997-2001 The bls news release issued Sept. 25, 2002, reported a total of 5,900 fatal work injuries for calendar year 2001. Since 4 Includes the category "Bodily reaction and exertion." NOTE: Totals for major categories may include sub then, an additional 15 job-related fatalities were identified, categories not shown separately. Percentages may not add bringing the total job-related fatality count for 2001 to 5,915. to totals because of rounding. Dash indicates less than 0.5 percent. 120 Monthly Labor Review https://fraser.stlouisfed.org Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis O ctober 2003 STATEMENT OF OWNERSHIP, MANAGEMENT, AND CIRCULATION Title of Publication: Monthly Labor Review Publication Number: 987-800 Date of Filing: October 1,2003 Frequency o f Issue: Monthly Number o f Issues Published Annually: 12 Annual Subscription Price: $49 Complete Mailing Address of Known Office o f Publication: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics, 2 M assachusetts Ave., NE, Washington, DC 20212-0001 Attention: Richard M. Devens (202) 691-7911 8. Complete M ailing Address of Headquarters of General Business Office of Publisher: U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 2 M assachusetts Ave., NE, Washington, DC 20212-0001 9. 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