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U.S. D epartm ent of Labor
Elaine L. Chao, S ecretary
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Kathleen P. Utgoff, C om m issioner
The Monthly Labor Review ( usps 987-800) is published
monthly by the Bureau o f Labor Statistics o f the U.S.
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occupational safety and health, demographic trends, and
other economic developments. Papers should be factual
and analytical, not polemical in tone. Potential articles, as
well as communications on editorial matters, should be
submitted to:
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Monthly Labor Review
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Washington, dc 20212
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MONTHLY LABOR

REVIEW
Volume 127, Number 2
February 2004

Employment outlook: 2002-12
Concepts and context

3

The projections form the basis for providing information on entering
the job market, changing careers, and the appropriate education and training
Michael W. Horrigan

The U. S. economy

23

Real gross domestic product is expected to grow,
while productivity remains strong and inflation remains stable
Betty W. Su

The labor force

37

The annual growth rate of the 55-years-and-older group
is expected to be nearly four times that of the overall labor force
Mitra Toossi

Industry output and employment

58

Employment growth in the service-providing sector will slow,
thereby slowing projected growth in total employment
Jay M. Berman

Occupational employment

80

Profesional and related employment and service occupations are expected
to grow the fastest; production occupations will grow very slowly
Daniel E. Hecker

Departments
Labor month in review
Précis

Publications received
Current labor statistics

2
106
107
109

Editor-in-Chief: Deborah P. Klein • Executive Editor: Richard M. Devens • Managing Editor: Anna Huffman Hill • Editors: Brian
I. Baker, Richard Hamilton, Leslie Brown Joyner • Book Reviews: Richard Hamilton • Design and Layout: Catherine D. Bowman,
Edith W. Peters


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Labor Month In Review

The February Review
The BLS Occupational Outlook Hand­
book is far and away the most popular
sub-section of the b l s Web site. The
Handbook hom e page received more
than 500,000 page views in December
2003, and the index of professional oc­
cupations was viewed almost 100,000
times. The projections that the articles
in this issue present are the quantitative
underpinnings of the Handbook and its
evaluation of prospects in specific oc­
cupations. Thus, we think, it was worth
the wait while the projections staff made
their transition to the new North Ameri­
can In d u stry C lassificatio n System
(NAICS).

Michael W. Horrigan, the Assistant
Commissioner in charge o f the employ­
ment projections program, provides an
overview of the concepts and methods
used to make the individual projections
and the interactions among them. He
also sum m arizes the results o f each
stage o f the process.
Betty W. Su establishes the macroeconomic framework the rest of the pro­
jections will assume prevails in 2012: A
$ 12.6 trillion dollar economy (in chained
1996 dollars) with a projected growth
rate o f GDP of about 3.0 percent and a
projected productivity growth rate of
2.1 percent.
M itra Toossi uses long-term popula­
tion projections provided by the Cen­
sus Bureau and an analysis of historical
trends in labor force participation to
project the labor supply scene in 2012:
An overall labor force that has grown
from 144.9 million in 2002 to 162.3 million
in 2012— a growth rate of about 1.1 per­
cent per annum.
Jay M. Berman reports on the detailed
industry by industry flow of inputs and
outputs. As mentioned above, the fact
that this uses the new NAICS represents
a significant break from the past use of

2

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the old-shoe Standard Industrial Classi­
fication (sic) system.
On the basis of the industry produc­
tion and employm ent needs reported
above, combined with industry-occupa­
tion staffing patterns developed by the
Occupational Employment Survey, Dan
Hecker presents projected trends in oc­
cupational employment in 2012.

Union membership
2003
In 2003,12.9 percent of wage and salary
workers were union members, down
from 13.3 percent in 2002. The union
membership rate has steadily declined
from a high of 20.1 percent in 1983, the
first year for which comparable union
data are available.
Union membership rates were higher
for men (14.3 percent) than for women
(11.4 percent) in 2003. The gap between
m en’s and women’s rates has narrowed
considerably since 1983, when the rate
for men was 10 percentage points higher
than the rate for women. Blacks were
more likely in 2003 to be union members
(16.5 percent) than were whites (12.5
percent), Asians (11.4 percent), or Hispanics (10.7 percent).
Among occupational groups, educa­
tion, training, and library occupations
(37.7 percent) and protective service
workers (36.1 percent) had the highest
unionization rates in 2003. Natural re­
sources, construction, and maintenance
workers and production, transportation,
and material moving occupations also
had higher-than-average union member­
ship rates at 19.2 percent and 18.7 per­
cent, respectively. Among the major
occupational groups, sales and office
occupations had the lowest unioniza­
tion rate— 8.2 percent. Find out more in
“Union Members in 2003,” news release
u s d l 04-53.

February 2004

Real weekly earnings
flat in 2003
Average weekly earnings rose by 1.7
percent, seasonally adjusted, from D e­
cember 2002 to December 2003. After
deflation by the c p i -w , however, aver­
age weekly earnings were unchanged.
B efo re a d ju stm e n t fo r seaso n al
change and inflation, average weekly
earnings were $523.02 in December 2003,
compared with $520.37 a year earlier.
After adjustment for seasonality, weekly
earnings were $522.35 in December 2003
and $513.76 in December 2002. E x­
pressed in constant 1982 dollars, seasonally-adjusted w eekly earnings w ere
$280.44 and $280.53 in the final months
o f2002 and 2003, respectively. For more
information see, “Real Earnings in December 2003,” news release USDL 04-30.

Productivity in
retailing
In 2002, labor productivity— as m ea­
sured by output per hour—rose in four
of the six largest retail trade industries
(those with more than one million em­
ployees). Productivity grew 4.2 percent
in the entire retail trade sector in 2002.
Output increased by 3.3 percent while
hours fell by 0.9 percent.
Among the largest retail industries,
productivity increased 3.1 percent in gro­
cery stores, 3.9 percent in building mate­
rial and supplies dealers, 6.2 percent in
clothing stores, and 10.9 percent in other
general merchandise stores (such as ware­
house clubs, catalog showrooms, and
dollar stores). Labor productivity de­
clined 1.0 percent for department stores
and 2.6 percent for automobile dealers.
Additional information is available from
“Productivity and Costs: W holesale
Trade, Retail Trade, and Food Services
and Drinking Places, 2002,” news release
u s d l 03-972.
□

Concepts and Context

Employment outlook, 2002-12

Employment projections to 2012:
concepts and context
BLS projections are carried out against a background
of explicit assumptions and model-based findings
that connect the past to the future; the projections
form the basis for providing information on entering
the job market, changing careers, and choosing
appropriate educational and training paths to job success
M ich a e l W. Horrigan

Michael W. Horrigan is
Assistant
Commissioner, Office
of Occupational
Statistics and
Employment
Projections, Bureau of
Labor Statistics.
E-mail:
H 0nig3n_Mchael@bls.gav


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lhis issue of the Monthly Labor Review
presents the BLS employment outlook for
the period from 2002 to 2012. The 2012
projections continue a longstanding tradition of
BLS examinations of future job prospects dating
back more than 50 years. First begun to assist
returning World War II veterans back into the world
of work, the BLS projections program has grown
steadily from a project that reported simple
descriptive material about available occupations to
an undertaking encom passing a m odel-based
appro ach th at dev elo p s p ro jectio n s o f the
macroeconomy, the labor force, industry employ­
ment and output, and occupational employment
growth.
The BLS projections are based on a long-term
view of the U.S. economy that assumes a long-run
full-employment economy in which labor markets
clear. As a result, BLS projections address the
question, “How would employment in industries
and occupations grow if the economy were to
operate at its full potential a decade from now?” In
the article “The U.S. economy to 2012: signs of
growth,” which focuses on projected trends in the
macroeconomy, Betty W. Su reports the results of a
macroeconomic model according to which the
overall U.S. economy is expected to grow from $9.4
trillion in 2002 to $ 12.6 trillion in 2012 (measured in

T

chain-weighted 1996 dollars). This increase re­
presents a growth rate of 3.0 percent per year in the
real gross domestic product (GDP) of the economy.
On the basis of the results from the macroeconomic
model, the unemployment rate in 2012 is projected
to be 5.2 percent and the annual rate of growth of
productivity is expected to be 2.1 percent. Given
these broad indicators of economic growth, the
model used to describe macroeconomic activity
provides detailed projections of four categories of
expenditures: personal consumption, investment,
government, and foreign trade. These projections
are necessary as input to the industry projections
that, in turn, form the basis of the occupational
projections.
Another major factor to consider in projecting
the path of the U.S. economy is the available labor
supply over the next decade. In the article “Labor
force projections to 2012: the graying of the U.S.
workforce,” Mitra Toossi uses Census Bureau
population projections based on the 2000 census,
along with historical trends in labor participation
rates, to project labor force levels and participation
rates for 136 age, sex, and race or ethnicity groups
over the 2002-12 period. Overall, the Bureau of
Labor Statistics expects the labor force to grow from
144.9 million in 2002 to 162.3 million in 2012, an
annual growth rate of approximately 1.1 percent.

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

3

Concepts and Context

The third m ajor area of analysis translates the growth in the
macroeconomy into the levels of final market output of each
industry and the levels o f interm ediate inputs that are
purchased by each industry to produce that output. In the
article “Industry output and employment projections to 2012,”
Jay M. Berman reports that the flow of goods and services
purchased in the production process or delivered to the
market as final products will reach a total of $23.2 trillion in
chain-weighted 1996 dollars) in 2012. The number of jobs
needed to support this level o f economic activity is expected
to grow from 144.0 million to 165.3 million. The 2002-12
projections present detailed industry flows of inputs and
outputs, using the 2002 North A m erican Industrial Clas­
sification System ( n a i c s ). This is the first set of b l s em­
ploym ent projections developed from the n a i c s ; past pro­
jections utilized the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification
System (SIC). The 2004-2005 b l s Career Guide to Industries,
a com panion publication to the b l s projections, offers a
detailed description of NAics-based industries and the impact
the changeover w ill have on industry and occupational
employment over the 2002-12 period.
On the basis of the description of industry production and
total employment needs reported in the three articles, data
from the Occupational Employment Survey (OES) are used to
project the occupational staffing patterns needed in each
industry. The OES gives detailed occupational employment
inform ation on each of the NAics-based industries. These
data are coupled with expert assessment of likely trends to
produce em ploym ent projections for 725 detailed occu­
pations. In the article “Occupational employment projections to
2012,” Dan Hecker reports the results of the b l s analysis of the
projected trends in the occupational employment that produces
the goods and services of the U.S. economy. The occupational
information provided in this article includes estimates of selfemployment that are based on data from the Current Population
Survey (CPS). Total employment is projected to increase by 14.8
percent, reflecting a net employment growth of 21.3 million jobs
over the 2002-12 period. The number of job openings due to
both net employment growth and net replacement needs is
projected to be 56.3 million .1Self-employment is projected to
decline 2.3 percent, from 11.5 million to 11.2 million. A separate
com panion publication, the 2004-2005 BLS Occupational
Outlook Handbook, gives a detailed description of more than
300 occupations; the book is widely used by students and
jobseekers to obtain career advice.
Together, the four articles presented in this issue of the Review
offer a wealth of detail on projected trends in the macroeconomy,
the labor force, industry output and employment, and occu­
pational employment growth. The purpose of this overview is to
present some of the most significant findings that emerge from
the articles and to provide an overall context from which to view
them. Accordingly, the sections that follow examine the potential

4

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February 2004

im pact of baby-boom er retirem ents, occupational labor
shortages, immigration, and high-paying, fast-growing occu­
pations on the economy over the 2002-12 period.
Any attempt to project the direction and path of the U.S.
economy and, in particular, longer run occupational employment
needs, is subject to a great deal of uncertainty. The b l s approach is
to state the underlying assumptions clearly and present the modelbased findings about the long-run position of the economy in as
transparent and objective a manner as possible. The Bureau has an
ongoing tradition of evaluating its estimates against the actual,
state of the economy in the end year of the projections. Waiting
10 years to judge the accuracy of the projections, however, belies
the more pressing need to assess the reasonableness of the b l s
description of the likely secular long-run trends in the economy and
their implications for occupational employment trends. The next
section examines this subject.

A com parison of m a c ro e c o n o m ic trends
One standard for assessing the reasonableness of the BLS
description of the long-run position of the U.S. economy is to
compare how the description of the next 10 years stands with
respect to the past behavior of the economy on the basis of a
broad set of macroeconomic indicators. Toward that end, the
following tabulation, based on data from the Bureau of Economic
Analysis, compares peak quarters, about 10 years apart, of U.S.
business cycles in the post-World War II era (the last period
listed, 2000- 12, based on annual data, represents a comparison
between the last full year of the 1991-2001 expansion with the
ending year of the BLS projections— which, as noted earlier,
represents a level of economic activity associated with the
economy operating at its full potential):

Years spanned

Annual average
growth rate
o f real GDP
(percent)

1960, quarter II, to 1969, quarter I V ......................
1969, quarter IV, to 1980, quarter I ........................
1980, quarter I, to 1990, quarter III........................
1990, quarter III, to 2001, quarter 1........................

4.4
3.3
2.9
3.1

2000 through 2012................................................

2.7

The expansion of the U.S. economy has slowed considerably
since the 1960s, from an annual rate of 4.4 percent between 1960
and 1969 to around 3 percent per year since 1980. Based on the
BLS projection of GDP for 2012, the projected growth rate of
2.7 percent over the 2000-12 period is in line with the rate
exhibited during the last two decades. (This growth rate,
w hich covers the 2000-12 period, including the 2001
recession, is slightly lower than the 3.0-percent growth rate
posted over the 2002-12 projection period; the box on the
next page compares the 2000-10 and 2002-12 BLS projections.)

Com paring the 2000-10 and 2002-12 projections

Since the publication of the Bureau’s most recent set of
projections, covering the 2000-10 period, the U.S. economy
entered a recession in March 2001 and has been in recovery
since Decem ber of the same year. One o f the hallmark
features o f the recovery period from December 2001 to
August 2003 was the continued net employment losses after
the official end of the recession. The term job-loss recovery
has been used to describe that aspect of the econom y
whereby significant output gains and strong labor pro­
ductivity occurred together with continued contraction in
employment. The juxtaposition of the BLS long-run pro­
jections, which assume an economy operating at capacity,
with this m ost recent experience in job losses is striking—
enough to ask, “To what extent are the current projections
influenced by the events o f the last recession and the
current recovery?”
While the model presented in the text projects a secular
trend instead of pinpointing cyclical downturns or upturns,
the trend is certainly affected to a degree by the current

Productivity trends since 1995. One of the most fascinating
and significant features of the current U.S. economy is the
strength of both labor and multifactor productivity since 1995.
Chart 1 shows the annual rate o f growth o f labor productivity
between selected peak quarters of the U.S. economy. Included
for comparison are the periods from 1990, quarter III, to 1995,
quarter I, and from 1995, quarter I, to 2001, quarter I, the latter
period being one o f exceptional strength in productivity that
has continued to this day. Between quarter III of 1990 and
quarter I o f 1995, labor productivity grew at an annual average
rate of 1.5 percent, compared with an annual average growth
rate of 2.3 percent between quarter I o f 1995 and quarter I of
2001. Over the 2002-12 period, the Bureau projects an annual
average growth rate of output per hour of 2.1 percent, just
slightly lower than the rate of the 1995-2001 period.
Perhaps even more telling was the strength of labor pro­
ductivity during the most recent recession. Chart 2 shows the
annual average rate of labor productivity during each of the
recessions since 1960. The strength o f productivity that
began in 1995 continued unabated during the m ost recent
recession, setting the stage for continued strong growth in
productivity over the 2002-12 period.

Industry tren d s
Output and employment by industry. Trends in overall labor
productivity, while important, still tell only one part of the


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position of the economy. The long-run-growth trajectory
of an economy that is in its ninth year of recovery or
expansion, as the 2000-10 projections assume, may certainly
look different from the long-run-growth trajectory associated
with an economy in its first year of recovery, as the 2002-12
projections presuppose. But how much different? The growth
rate projected for GDP for the 2000-10 period was 3.4 percent
per year, compared with the 3.0 percent projected for the 200212 period. The model presented in the text implies a 5.2-percent
long-run unemployment rate in the current projections, higher
than the 4.0 percent postulated in the previous set of pro­
jections. Labor productivity is also somewhat lower, at 2.1
percent for the 2002-12 projections, compared with the 2.4percent annual grow th rate assum ed in the 2000-10
projections. Although a more detailed comparison will reveal
other differences, in general, the long-run growth trajectory
in the current set of projections is not quite as strong as in the
previous set, reflecting, to a certain extent, the impact of the
last recession.

story. How these trends are reflected in the growth in output
by industry and, in particular, between goods-producing and
service-providing industries, affords an important insight into
the sources of overall employment growth in the b ls pro­
jections. Table 1 compares goods-producing and service­
providing sectors for the year 2002, based on the proportions
of total output and total employment accounted for by each
sector.
The measure of output reported in the table is nominal gross
duplicated output, w hich includes output produced for
intermediate sale to other firms and final output delivered to
markets .2 Nominal gross duplicated output has the closest
connection to the amount of labor that industries will need to
hire to achieve production goals, whether such output is for
intermediate sale to another firm or for sale as a final market
good.
As the table indicates, the goods-producing sector’s share of
gross duplicated output is substantially higher than its share of
total nonfarm wage and salary employment, especially for
manufacturing industries. In contrast, the service-providing
sector’s share of gross duplicated output, 67.1 percent, is smaller
than its 82.0-percent share of em ploym ent. Two notable
exceptions are the information and financial activities sectors,
which both account for a larger share of output than em ­
ployment.3
Given these differences between goods-producing and
service-providing industries, it is not surprising that the
Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

5

Concepts and Context

Chart 1

Annual rate of growth of output per hour, nonfarm business, selected peak-to-peak
and other comparisons

Percent

Percent

1960,
1969,
quarter II- quarter IV 1969,
1980,
quarter IV quarter I
C h a rt 2.

1990,
quarter HI-

2001,
quarter I

1990,
quarter II
1995,
quarter I

1995,
quarter I-

2002-12

2001,
quarter I

Annual rate of growth of output per hour, nonfarm business, selected peak-to-trough
comparisons

Percent

Percent

6.0

6.0

1960,
quarter II1961,
quarter I

6

1980,
quarter
1990,
quarter

1969,
quarter IV 1970,
quarter IV

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1973,
quarter IV 1975,
quarter I

February 2004

1980,
quarter I1980,
quarter III

1981,
quarter III1982,
quarter IV

1990,
quarter III1991,
quarter I

2001,
quarter I2001,
quarter IV

Bureau projects that net change in nonfarm wage and salary
employm ent over the 2002-12 period will be largely in the
service-providing industries: 20.8 million (96.3 percent) out of
a projected net employment gain of 21 .6 million. Nor should it
be surprising that goods-producing industries account for
22.8 percent of the projected increase in output, measured on
a nominal gross duplicated basis, and only 3.7 percent of the
net em ployment change over the same period. (See table 2.)
Do these figures m ean that there will be very few job
opportunities in goods-producing industries? Not at all. The
reason is that the bls projections are based on net employment
change and do not reflect the underlying dynamic flows of
hirings and separations that occur within industries. How
m uch tu rn o v er is there by industry? The B ureau now
calculates job turnover statistics by industry in its new Job
Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (jolts). Table 3 shows the
breakdown of turnover by major NAICS industry group in
September 2003, the latest month for which data were available at
the time this article was written. In the private sector, 4.2 million
individuals were hired during September 2003, representing 3.8
percent of private nonfarm payroll employment that month. Also,
4 million workers were separated from their jobs during September,
accounting for 3.7 percent of employment. An examination of the
industries listed in table 3 shows how dynamic U.S. labor markets
are across industries.
Another measure o f the dynamic nature of labor markets is
the number of job openings that are created to replace workers
who leave occupations. Hecker lists the number of job open­

ings for each detailed occupation over the 2002-12 period, a
figure that represents the hiring required both to meet net
employment growth and to replace workers who leave each
occupation .4 As noted previously, the Bureau projects an
overall level of job openings of 56.3 m illion jobs over the
period, representing a net employment growth of 21.3 million
and an additional 35 million job openings due to replacement
needs.
While a principal and highly popular use of bls projections is
to offer guidance on which occupations are projected to grow
the fastest or add the most jobs, the projected trends are closely
tied to the underlying changes in industry output and
employment levels. An industry that is projected to have a
significant increase in the level or the rate of growth of its output
can have a significant impact on the types of occupations that
will be in demand over the next decade. One reason for this
relationship has to do with the concentrations of particular
occupations in specific industries. For example, 49 percent of
registered nurses work in hospitals, and another 17 percent work
in offices of physicians and in ambulatory health-care centers,
including home health-care centers. The projected increases of
27 percent and 57 percent in the real output of hospitals and
ambulatory health-care services, respectively, translates into 71
percent of the nearly 623,000 total projected increase in the
employment of registered nurses.
Another important influence of industries on the occupational
staffing mix results from changes in the technology of pro­
duction—which can have significant impacts on the types of

O u t p u t 1 a n d n o n f a r m w a g e a n d s a la r y e m p l o y m e n t b y m a jo r in d u s tr y d iv is io n , 2 0 0 2 2
S hares

Levels
Industry

Total..................................................................................

O u tpu t

$18,409.6

Em ploym ent
(thousands)

O u tpu t

131,063

100.0

100.0
17.2
.4
5.1
11.7
82.8
.5
4.3
11.5
3.2
2.6
6.0
12.2
12.3
9.1
4.7
2.1
14.3

Goods producing, excluding agriculture...............................
Mining..................................................................................
Construction........................................................................
Manufacturing.....................................................................

4,904.5
158.8
865.5
3,880.3

22,550
512
6,732
15,307

26.6
.9
4.7
21.1

Service providing..................................................................
Utilities................................................................................
Wholesale tra d e .................................................................
Retail trade..........................................................................
Transportation and warehousing........................................
Information.........................................................................
Financial activities.............................................................
Professional and business services.................................
Education and health services..........................................
Leisure and hospitality......................................................
Other services...................................................................
Federal Government...........................................................
State and local government...............................................

12,352.2
302.4
951.0
1,064.9
685.4
965.3
2,497.9
2,089.2
1,289.7
687.9
444.1
376.4
998.0

108,513
600
5,641
15,047
4,205
3,420
7,843
16,010
16,184
11,969
6,105
2,767
18,722

67.1
1.6
5.2
5.8
3.7
5.2
13.6
11.3
7.0
3.7
2.4
2.0
5.4

1Gross duplicated output, measured in nominal dollars.
2Industry output levels do not add to totals, due to the exclusion of


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E m ploym ent

agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industries, as well as special
industries and a residual category.

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

7

Concepts and Context

Table 2.

Output1 and nonfarm wage and salary employment by major industry division, 2002 and 20122
2002 Levels

S h are o f c h a n g e b e tw e e n
2 0 0 2 a n d 20 1 2

20 1 2 Levels

Industry
O u tpu t

Em ploym ent
(thousands)

O u tpu t

E m ploym ent
(thousands)

O u tpu t

E m ploym ent

T o ta l....................................................................

$18,409.6

131,063

$31,599.4

152,690

100.0

100.0

Goods producing, excluding agriculture.................
Mining.....................................................................
Construction..........................................................
Manufacturing........................................................

4,904.5
158.8
865.5
3,880.3

22,550
512
6,732
15,307

7,917.6
208.0
1,204.9
6,504.7

23,346
451
7,745
15,149

22.8
.4
2.6
19.9

3.7
-.3
4.7
-.7

Service providing.....................................................
Utilities...................................................................
Wholesale tra d e ....................................................
Retail trade............................................................
Transportation and warehousing...........................
Information............................................................
Financial activities................................................
Professional and business services....................
Education and health services.............................
Leisure and hospitality.........................................
Other services......................................................
Federal Government..............................................
State and local government..................................

12,352.2
302.4
951.0
1,064.9
685.4
965.3
2,497.9
2,034.6
1,289.7
687.9
444.1
376.4
998.0

108,513
600
5,641
15,047
4,205
3,420
7,843
16,010
16,184
11,969
6,105
2,767
18,722

22,360.8
460.0
1,898.2
1,993.9
1,183.3
1,981.0
4,315.4
4,136.8
2,455.0
1,160.8
739.7
542.9
1,493.7

129,344
565
6,279
17,129
5,120
4,052
8,806
20,876
21,329
14,104
7,065
2,779
21,240

75.9
1.2
7.2
7.0
3.8
7.7
13.8
15.3
8.8
3.6
2.2
1.3
3.8

96.3
-.2
3.0
9.6
4.2
2.9
4.5
22.5
23.8
9.9
4.4
.1
11.6

1Gross duplicated output, measured in nominal dollars.
2 Industry output levels do not add to totals, due to the exclusion of

workers employed as new production technologies are adopted.
In 1983, for example, the production of computer and office
equipment required the services of nearly 100,000 precision
production, craft, and repair workers and 7,000 computer
engineers, scientists, and systems analysts. By 1998, as in­
novations in the production of computer and office equipment
were introduced into this industry, the number of production
workers had dropped to 68,000, and employment in computerrelated occupations had grown to more than 51,000.
A number of other factors related to industry output and
employment can have an important influence on the occupational
staffing patterns observed in the U.S. economy: the discovery
of new technologies and their integration into the production
process; the influence of global competition; the different emphases
placed by industries on research and development, marketing,
and output customization; and the outsourcing of functions to
firms in other domestic industries or abroad, among others.

Fast em p lo ym e n t grow th, high output grow th
With the aforementioned multiple factors affecting industry
output, are there ways of summarizing the likely impact of in­
dustry trends on occupational employment? One approach is to
group industries on the basis of selected characteristics and
examine the employment growth (or decline) that is projected for
those industries over the next decade. Berman lists (1) the
industries that are projected to have the fastest-growing and

8

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agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting industries, as well as special
industries and a residual category.

most rapidly decining employment growth ,5 (2) the industries
with the fastest-growing and most rapidly decining output
growth ,6(3) the industries with the largest employment growth
and declines ,7 and (4) the industries with the largest output
growth and declines .8 Another grouping that provides insight
into employment and occupational staffing patterns is the set of
industries that are projected to post relatively high rates of
growth in both output and employment. Table 4 lists industries
that are projected to have employment increases greater than
14.8 percent (the overall increase in employment projected for
the 2002-12 period). The industries are listed in descending order
of their projected output growth over the 2002-12 period.
The first row of the table shows that the Internet services,
data processing, and other information services industry is
projected to have the highest annual rate of change of real output
over the projection period: 10.3 percent per year. This industry is
expected to add 244,000 jobs, an increase of 46.2 percent, over
the period. Twenty-one industries are projected to have real
output growth rates that equal or exceed the overall annual
average of 4.0 percent. The last two columns indicate that these
industries together accounted for 14 percent of nonfarm wage
and salary employment in 2002 and are projected to account for
32 percent of overall net employment growth over the projection
period.
If the list of industries with fast employment growth is
extended to include those with average annual output growth of
3 percent or more per year, 35 industries qualify. These industries

account for 24 percent of nonfarm wage and salary employment
in 2002 and 48 percent of their net employment growth over the
2002-12 period. Note that not all 35 industries are in the service­
providing sector of the economy. Although goods-producing
industries generally have greater output than employment gains,
the list o f 35 industries includes metalworking machinery
manufacturing industries; forging and stamping industries;
plastics product manufacturing industries; and architectural and
structural metals manufacturing industries.
The 50 industries with average annual output growth of 2
percent or more per year and employment growth exceeding 14.8
percent account for 65 percent of nonfarm wage and salary
growth over the projection period. Further, a total of 84 percent
of employment growth is accounted for by all of the industries
with projected net employment growth exceeding the overall
average of 14.8 percent. This total of 58 industries accounted for
55 percent of employment in 2002, and each has a projected
annual average growth rate of real output of at least 1 percent
between 2002 and 2012.

Trends in lab o r supply
One of the most significant influences on both labor force growth
and labor force participation rates in the last 50 years has been
the aging of the baby-boom cohort. Indeed, one of the recurring

themes that run through the four articles in this issue of the

Review is the influence of the baby-boom generation on
everything from consumer expenditures to housing, medical care,
and retirement, to name just a few factors.
The baby boomers were bom between 1946 and 1964, were
aged 38 through 56 in 2002, and will be aged 48 through 66 in
2012. In table 5, boldface is used to denote when the baby
boomers reached (or will reach) various age groups between
1950 and 2010. One way to see the impact of this cohort is to
compare the size of an age group before the arrival of the
baby boom ers with its size once the baby boom ers have
reached the indicated ages. For example, in 1970, the baby
boomers were aged 6 to 24 years, and in that year, there were
48 million individuals aged 25 to 44. Twenty years later, with
the baby boomers aged 26 to 44, the number of individuals in
the 25-44 age group stood at 80.8 million, an increase of 68.3
percent.
Perhaps the aspect of the baby boomers that is generating
the most interest at present is their potential impact on the
remaining size of the labor supply as the boomers enter older
age groups and begin to retire. According to Census Bureau
population projections given in the table, by 2010, when baby
boomers will be 46 to 64 years, the number of 55- to 64-yearolds will grow by more than 11 million compared with the
number in 2000, an increase of 46 percent.

Annual average hiring rates and levels, and separations rates and levels, by industry, September 2003

Industry

Total................................................................................
Total private............................................................................
Natural resources and mining...............................................
Construction...........................................................................
Manufacturing.........................................................................
Durable goods....................................................................
Nondurable goods..............................................................
Trade, transportation, and utilities........................................
Wholesale tra d e .................................................................
Retail trade..........................................................................
Transportation, warehousing, and utilities........................
Information.............................................................................
Financial activities................................................................
Finance and insurance.......................................................
Real estate and rental and leasing....................................
Professional and business services....................................
Education and health services.............................................
Educational services..........................................................
Health care and social assistance....................................
Leisure and hospitality..........................................................
Arts, entertainment, and recreation..................................
Accommodation and food services...................................
Other services......................................................................
Government............................................................................
Federal................................................................................
State and local...................................................................

S ource:

Hiring ra te

3.5
3.8
2.4
5.7
2.4
2.4
2.4
4.0
3.0
4.6
3.5
1.9
2.4
2.1
3.5
3.9
3.6
4.6
3.4
5.9
4.6
6.1
3.7
1.9
1.4
2.0

Hiring le v e l
(thousands)

4,575
4,177
14
403
353
218
136
1,012
164
680
168
61
194
122
73
627
591
122
469
725
84
641
197
399
38
361

Separation
ra te

3.3
3.7
3.2
6.3
2.3
2.2
2.5
3.4
2.6
4.1
2.3
2.0
2.5
1.9
4.0
3.4
2.7
1.9
2.8
7.2
11.6
6.5
3.8
1.5
1.4
1.5

S ep a ra tio n
le v e l
(thousands)

4,320
4,002
18
446
342
200
142
860
145
605
109
66
197
113
83
551
437
49
387
888
211
677
199
318
38
280

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey, Bureau of Labor Statistics.


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Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

9

Concepts and Context

One question that naturally arises is whether the baby
boomers have had a discernible impact on labor force par­
ticipation rates. That is to say, as the baby boomers have
aged, have their labor force participation rates differed
significantly from the cohorts that came before them or the
cohorts that followed them? Table 6 provides the answer. For
men, the dominant feature is the declining participation rates
among those aged 55 and older since 1950, a group that does
not yet include the baby boomers. From an examination of the
younger age groups listed in the table, it does not appear that
the labor force participation rates of baby boomers differed
significantly from those of similarly aged cohorts that came
before or after.
The table also shows the remarkable rise in the labor force
participation rates for women since 1950, especially among the
prime working-age groups from 25 to 54 years. In each case, the
rising trend predates the arrival of female baby boomers.
Although these women certainly contributed to the trend, the
data do not support the idea that the rising labor force par­
ticipation rates of women since 1950 were the result of the entry
of the baby-boomer cohorts.
In Toossi’s article on labor force projections, changes in
the labor force levels of various age groups are decomposed
into changes in the size of the population and changes in the
labor force participation rates of each age group. Consistent
with the findings just given, Toossi finds that changes in
labor force levels of each age group are largely the result of
changes in the size of the population in various age groups,
rather than changes in their underlying labor force par­
ticipation rates.

Labor shortages
There is a growing interest in the potential impact of the
upcoming retirement of baby boomers— specifically, the pros­
pect of a general shortage of workers and its effects on specific
occupational labor markets. Table 7 gives the actual and expected
sizes of the labor force by age group between 1950 and 2050, by
decade, based on previously published research by Toossi.9
The arrival on the economic scene and the subsequent aging of
the baby boomers has had a significant impact on labor force
growth rates. Between 1950 and 2000, the civilian labor force
grew by 79 million, from 62.2 million to 140.9 million, an increase
of 1.6 percent per year. The Bureau projects that, between 2000
and 2010, labor force growth will slow to 1.1 percent per year, and
after the retirement of the baby boomers, between 2010 and 2020,
labor force growth will slow to 0.4 percent per year. Overall, the
civilian labor force is expected to grow by 51 million between
2000 and 2050, a slowdown to a 0.6-percent increase per year.
Will these increases in the size of the labor force be too small
to meet the needs of the U.S. economy? Will there be a general
shortage of workers, so that many of the jobs needed to produce
10

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February 2004

the level of output demanded by the economy (and by U.S.
trading partners in the form of exports) will go unfilled? To what
extent do the projections account for this possibility? Consider
the latter question first. The bls projections, as mentioned earlier,
assume a labor market that clears. The Bureau does not base its
estimates of changes in total, industry, or occupational em­
ployment on labor markets that have either a shortage or a surplus
of workers. Despite this assumption, numerous analyses have
been produced by researchers in past years using BLS employ­
ment projections as a basis for measuring what is believed to be
evidence of a future shortage of workers in the U.S. economy.
One of the most common ways in which bls numbers are used
to project a “coming shortage” is by asserting that the difference
between the projected labor force level and the projected
employment count represents a shortage of workers. For ex­
ample, the Bureau projects a labor force of 162.3 million
individuals in 2012. At the same time, the Bureau expects that the
2012 economy will require that 165.3 million jobs be filled. Does
this difference imply a shortage of 3.0 million workers come 2012?
Absolutely not— but if not, then what accounts for the dif­
ference? First, bls projections of occupational employment are
based on the number of jobs that the economy is expected to
require. However, because individuals can and do hold more
than one job, the count of workers will most certainly be less
than the number of jobs. Second, and more technically, the data
the Bureau uses for projecting industry employment are based
on the Current Employment Statistics survey, which counts
payroll jobs at establishments. The data the Bureau uses to
project labor force levels, by contrast, are based on the CPS, a
household survey yielding estim ates o f the num ber of
individuals in the labor force. Besides multiple jobholding, then,
there are statistical differences between these two series that
contribute to the difference between the job count and the count
of individual employees in bls projections.
Essentially, the bls projections are based on an examination
of the labor required to produce projected levels of output by
industry. How industries manage their human resource re­
quirements is influenced by a great many factors: the available
labor supply (including im m igration), the skill levels of
prospective jobseekers, the use of technology in the production
process, the required capital-labor ratio consistent with the
technology used for production, how work is organized, the use
of employees from the personnel supply services industry, the
hiring of self-employed contractors, the use of flextime and
flexiplace, the use of overtime or mandatory shift coverage, and
the hiring of offshore labor in foreign countries, among others.
Although the projections do not attempt to explicitly model these
various possible management options that firms may exercise, a
perspective on their potential importance is certainly necessary
to consider in building any set of projections and, in particular,
detailed descriptions of the outlook for occupations. The next
two subsections examine two areas of growing interest in
assessing the reaction of firms to the available qualified labor

Table 4.

Industries with relatively fast employment growth,' ranked by projected annual growth rate of output, 2002-12

Industry

Internet services, data processing, and
other information services..........................
Computer systems design and related
services.......................................................
Software publishers........................................
Motion picture and sound recording
Industries....................................................
Scientific research and development
and other professional, scientific,
and technical services................................
Other general purpose machinery
manufacturing..............................................
Advertising and related services..................
Employment services.....................................
Metalworking machinery manufacturing........
Religious, grantmaking and giving
services, and social advocacy
organizations...............................................
Ambulatory health care services except
offices of health practitioners...................
Forging and stamping.....................................
Amusement, gambling, and recreation
industries.....................................................
Office administrative and facilities support
services.......................................................
Securities, commodity contracts, and other
financial investments and related
activities.......................................................
Individual, family, community, and vocational
rehabilitation services...................................
Commercial and industrial equipment
(except automotive and electronic) repair
and maintenance.........................................
Traveler accommodation.................................
Management, scientific, and technical
consulting services.....................................
Plastics product manufacturing.....................
Child day care services.................................
Commercial and industrial machinery
and equipment rental and leasing..............
Architectural and structural metals
manufacturing..............................................
Truck transportation and couriers
and messengers.........................................
Business support and investigation
and security services and support
services, n.e.c.2 .........................................
Specialized design services..........................
Offices of health practitioners.......................
Pharmaceutical and medicine manufacturing ...
Other wood product manufacturing...............
Community care facilities for the elderly
and residential care facilities, n.e.c.2 ......
Other personal services.................................
Nondepository credit intermediation and related
support activities, funds, trust, and
lessors of nonfinancial intangibles..............
RV parks, recreational camps, and rooming
and boarding houses.................................
Services to buildings and dwellings..............
Waste management and remediation services .
Automotive repair and maintenance..............
Museums, historical sites, and similar
institutions..................................................
Consumer goods rental and general rental
centers.......................................................
Water, sewage, and other systems..............


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G row th
ra te
of o u tp ut
p e r y e a r,
2 0 0 2 -1 2

Em ploym ent, Em ploym ent,
2012
2000
(thousands) (thousands)

P ercen t

C um ulative
p e rc e n ta g e
of to tal 2002
em ploym ent

C u m u la tive
p e rc e n ta g e of
to ta l p ro je c te d
e m p lo y m e n t
change,
2 0 0 2 -1 2

C h a n g e in
e m p lo y m e n t
N um ber
(thousands)

10.3

529

773

244

46.2

0.4

1.1

9.0
8.4

1,163
256

1,798
430

635
174

54.6
67.9

1.3
1.5

4.1
4.9

6.7

387

503

116

30.0

1.8

5.4

5.5

1,026

1,241

215

21.0

2.6

6.4

5.2
5.2
5.1
4.9

288
442
3,249
217

339
525
5,012
251

51
84
1,764
34

17.7
18.9
54.3
15.5

2.8
3.1
5.6
5.8

6.6
7.0
15.2
15.3

4.9

1,944

2,372

428

22.0

7.2

17.3

4.6
4.5

1,444
114

2,113
132

670
18

46.4
16.2

8.4
8.4

20.4
20.5

4.2

1,308

1,717

410

31.3

9.4

22.4

4.2

390

508

117

30.1

9.7

22.9

4.2

801

925

124

15.5

10.3

23.5

4.1

1,269

1,867

597

47.1

11.3

26.3

4.1
4.1

156
1,726

185
2,019

29
293

18.7
17.0

11.4
12.7

26.4
27.8

4.1
4.1
4.0

732
668
734

1,137
797
1,050

406
128
316

55.4
19.2
43.1

13.3
13.8
14.4

29.6
30.2
31.7

3.9

102

143

41

39.7

14.5

31.9

3.9

400

478

77

19.3

14.8

32.2

3.8

1,897

2,404

507

26.7

16.2

34.6

3.7
3.6
3.5
3.5
3.4

1,772
123
3,190
293
320

2,261
161
4,419
361
386

489
38
1,229
68
67

27.6
30.8
38.5
23.2
20.9

17.6
17.7
20.1
20.3
20.6

36.8
37.0
42.7
43.0
43.3

3.4
3.3

695
219

1,078
270

382
51

55.0
23.2

21.1
21.3

45.1
45.3

3.2

1,058

1,253

196

18.5

22.1

46.2

3.2
3.1
3.0
2.9

53
1,597
317
897

62
1,980
404
1,046

8
383
87
149

15.5
24.0
27.5
16.7

22.1
23.3
23.6
24.2

46.3
48.0
48.4
49.1

2.7

113

136

24

21.2

24.3

49.2

2.7
2.7

353
49

484
71

131
23

37.2
46.4

24.6
24.6

49.8
49.9

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

11

Concepts and Context

Table 4.

Continued—Industries with relatively fast employment growth,' ranked by projected annual growth rate of output,

2002-12
G row th
ra te
o f ou tp u t
p e r y e a r,
2 0 0 2 -1 2

Industry

Veneer, plywood, and engineered wood
product manufacturing...............................
Scenic and sightseeing transportation
and support activities for transportation.....
Personal care services..................................
Cement and concrete product
manufacturing..............................................
Hospitals.........................................................
Food services and drinking places...............
Nursing care and residential mental health
facilities.......................................................
Performing arts companies, promoters,
agents, managers, and independent artists .
State and local electric utilities....................
Accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping,
and payroll services....................................
Animal slaughtering and processing.............
Cable and other subscription programming
and program distribution...............................
Spectator sports.............................................
Educational services......................................
Construction...................................................
State and local government education.........
Civic, social, business, and similar
organizations..............................................
Legal services................................................
Transit and ground passenger transportation ...

Employment,
2000
(thousands)

21

18.4

24.7

50.0

2.6
2.6

553
523

652
667

100
144

18.0
27.6

25.1
25.5

50.5
51.2

2.5
2.4
2.4

230
4,153
8,412

278
4,785
9,749

48
632
1,337

20.9
15.2
15.9

25.7
28.9
35.3

51.4
54.3
60.5

2.4

2,048

2,607

559

27.3

36.9

63.1

2.3
2.2

240
93

277
108

37
14

15.5
15.2

37.1
37.1

63.3
63.3

2.1
2.0

867
520

1,082
601

215
80

24.8
15.4

37.8
38.2

64.3
64.7

1.9
1.9
1.8
1.7
1.5

221
118
2,651
6,732
9,876

300
144
3,410
7,745
11,606

79
26
759
1,014
1,730

35.7
22.3
28.6
15.1
17.5

38.4
38.4
40.5
45.6
53.1

65.0
65.2
68.7
73.4
81.4

1.5
1.3
1.2

917
1,112
372

1,088
1,330
488

172
218
116

18.7
19.6
31.3

53.8
54.7
55.0

82.2
83.2
83.7

United States, especially over the last decade, are one source of
labor for occupations in which it may be increasingly difficult to
find qualified workers. The following tabulation shows the levels
and rates of immigration to the Nation, by decade, since 1901, as
compiled by the U.S. Census Bureau:

12

..............
..............
..............
..............
..............
..............
..............
..............
..............
..............

Rate per thousand
U.S. population

8,795,000
5,736,000
4,107,000
528,000
1,035,000
2,515,000
3,322,000
4,493,000
7,338,000
7,605,000

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P ercen t

C um ula tive
p e rc e n ta g e of
to ta l pr o je c te d
e m p lo y m e n t
change,
2 0 0 2 -1 2

138

The potential role o f immigration in increasing the available
supply o f labor. Rising trends in immigration levels to the

1901-10
1911-20
1921-30
1931-40
1941-50
1951-60
1961-70
1971-80
1981-90
1991-98

N um ber
(thousands)

C um ulative
p e rc e n ta g e
of to tal 2002
em ploym ent

116

supply: immigration and the outsourcing of the production of
goods and services to establishments based in foreign countries.

Number o f immigrants
entering United States

C h a n g e in
em plo ym ent

2.6

1 Fast employment growth is defined as a projected percentage in
employment greater than 14.8 percent, the overall average for the 2 0 0 2-

Period

Bnptoyment,
2012
(thousands)

February 2004

10.4
5.7
3.5
.4
.7
1.5
1.7
2.1
3.1
3.6

12 projection period.
2 n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified.

The population projections from the Census Bureau that are
used as the basis for bls labor force projections include an
estimate of the level of legal immigration to the United States
over the next decade. In its most recent population projections,
the Census Bureau estimates annual immigration levels of 1.1
million from 2000 to 2005, a decline to 900,000 per year from 2006
to 2010, and an increase to 1.3 million annually from 2011 to 2012.
Much uncertainty accompanies any discussion of the role of
immigration in addressing pressures on labor markets to find
qualified workers. Changes in immigration policy, the occu­
pational and educational profiles of new immigrants, and the
regional impacts of where immigrants choose to live are but a few
of the somewhat speculative areas that make assessing this
potential problematic. To the extent that past serves as prologue,
however, the preceding tabulation does suggest that there will
be substantial levels of immigration into the United States over
the next decade.
What kinds of occupations do recent immigrants enter? Using
data from the CPSfor the period 2000-02, table 8 lists occupational
employment distributions for immigrant groups based on the
number of years since their immigration into the Nation, compared

Table 5.

Y ear

1950......
1960......
1970......
1980......
1990......
2000......
2010......

Ages of baby boomers and the populations of various age groups in the United States, 1950-2010

Ages
of
baby
boomers

0-4
0-14
6-24
16-34
26-44
36-54
46-64

A g e g ro u p

6 -1 4

15-24

40,482 ,524
55 ,786,173
57,900,052

51,290,339
53,567,871
60,253,375
59,444,392

22,098,426
24,020,004
35,441,369
42 ,486,828

25 -34

23,759,267
22,818,310
24,907,429
37,081,839

36,774,327 43,175,932
39,183,891 39,891,724
42,818,900 38,851,057

4 5 -5 4

3 5 -4 4

21,450,359
24,081,352
23,087,805
25,634,710
37,578,903
45,148,527

39,442,358

N o t e : Boldface denotes when the baby boomers reached or will reach
the indicated age group.

17,342,653
20,485,439
23,219,957
22,799,787
25,223,086
37,677,952
4 4 ,160 ,748
S ource:

with the distribution for all U.S. employees. Individuals who have
immigrated within the last 5 years have a greater likelihood than
the overall population of U.S. workers of being in food prep­
aration and serving related occupations, production occu­
pations, and construction trades. They also have a greater
likelihood of being in computer and mathematical occupations.
As the num ber o f years since im m igration increases, the
occupational distribution of immigrants begins to broadly
resemble the overall occupational distribution, although im­
migrants still have a greater likelihood of being in production
and food-related occupations, compared with all U.S. em­
ployees.

55 -6 4

6 5 -7 4

13,294,595
15,572,317
18,589,812
21,702,875
21,147,923
24,274,684

8,414,885
10,996,842
12,435,456
15,580,605
18,106,558
18,390,986
21,154,241

35,429,393

75 -84

3,277,751
4,633,486
6,119,145
7,728,755
10,055,108
12,361,180
12,775,045

85 a n d o ld e r

576,901
929,252
1,501,901
2,240,067
2,240,067
4,239,587
5,785,840

U.S. Census Bureau,

The potential role o f hiring offshore employees.10 One of the
areas of increasing interest in U.S. labor markets is the use of
offshore employees as part of the production process for U.S.
firms. Outsourcing work to foreign countries— that is, pur­
chasing services formerly produced in the United States from
establishments in other countries— has been widely cited in recent
months as having a growing impact on U.S. employment The exact
magnitude of outsourcing is not known, owing to the lack of
specific, systematic data on the use of foreign employment to
produce outsourced goods and services. Outsourcing is a trend
that has been going on for quite some time. The current interest in
it appears to reflect a transition from the importation of goods to the

Ages of baby boomers and labor force participation rates of various age groups in the United States, 1950-2000
A g e g ro u p
Year

A g e s of b a b y
bo om ers

16-24

25 -3 4

3 5 -4 4

4 5 -5 4

0.64
.65
.70

0.68
.69
.73
.80

0.66
.72
.74
.75
.81

5 5 -6 4

6 5 a n d o ld e r

Total

1950...........................................
1960...........................................
1970...........................................
1980...........................................
1990...........................................
2000...........................................

0-4
0-14
6-24
16-34
36-44
36-54

0.60
.56

0-4
0-14
6-24
16-34
36-44
36-54

.77
.72

.60
.68

.67
.66

.80
.84

.85

.85
.85

.83

0.57
.61
.62
.56
.56
.59

0.27
.21
.17
.13
.12
.13

.87
.87
.83
.72
.68
.67

.46
.33
.27
.19
.16
.18

.27
.37
.43
.41
.45
.52

.10
.11
.10
.08
.09
.09

M en

1950...........................................
1960...........................................
1970...........................................
1980...........................................
1990...........................................
2000...........................................

.69
.74

.72
.69

.96
.98
.96
.95
.94

.93

.98
.98
.97
.96

.96
.96
.94
.91
.91

.94
.93

.89

W om en

1950...........................................
1960...........................................
1970...........................................
1980...........................................
1990...........................................
2000...........................................
N ote:

0-4
0-14
6-24
16-34
36-44
36-54

.44
.43
.51
.62

.63
.63

.34
.36
.45
.66
.73

.76

.38
.50
.54
.60
.71

.39
.43
.51
.66
.76
.77

.77

Boldface denotes when the baby boomers reached or will reach the indicated age group.


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Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

13

Concepts and Context

¡0 2 3 ^ 1

Actual and projected civilian labor force levels
and growth rates per year, 1950-2050
C hange

Y ear

Level

P ercen t
per year

Labor shortages by occupation.

A c tu a l

1950...............................
1960...............................
1970...............................
1980...............................
1990...............................
2000...............................

62,208
69,628
82,771
106,940
125,840
140,863

7,420
13,143
24,169
18,900
15,023

1.1
1.7
2.6
1.6
1.1

157,721
164,681
170,090
180,517
191,825

16,858
6,960
5,409
10,427
11,308

1.1
.4
.3
.6
.6

62,208
140,863
191,825

78,655
50,962

1.6
.6

P ro je c te d

2010...............................
2020...............................
2030...............................
2040...............................
2050...............................
S u m m a ry

1950...............................
2000...............................
2050...............................

direct purchase of foreign-produced services, a phenomenon that
has expanded with the development of the Internet and its
dissolution of temporal and spatial barriers to the free flow of
services.
What is the potential impact of this transition? Domestic
industries have already outsourced such functions as account­
ing, marketing, and advertising to other domestic industries that
both specialize in these services and produce them more cheaply.
With outsourcing, a purchase of a service from another industry
replaces all the material and labor inputs that the purchasing
industry previously used internally in order to create that service.
The total output of the industry now buying the service from an
outside source is somewhat lower, reflecting the inherent costefficiency of the industry producing the service. Some of the
purchasing industry’s employment is shifted to the producing
industry, while some is freed up for other jobs in the economy.
The productivity of the remaining employees in the purchasing
industry now appears to be somewhat higher. If the outsourcing
is provided by a foreign establishm ent, the output of the
purchasing industry is again little affected. The jobs outsourced,
however, are no longer counted in U.S. employment totals, and
because imports are removed in total from the GDP accounts,
GDP is lower.
Foreign outsourcing influences the projections through its
impact on the industry distribution of GDP. As industries import
more foreign services, the trend toward higher importation will
be reflected in the relative declines in the output and employment
of the affected industries over time. Because the Bureau bases
its industry employment projections largely on trend analyses of
detailed establishment-based time series, the effects of the recent
past have been implicitly addressed to the extent that the data
used have already begun to reflect the situation. More explicitly,
expert review of the model-based projections by b l s occu­

14

Monthly Labor Review


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pational employment analysts brings to bear subjective, but
current, knowledge of industry employment practices. Studies
of past outsourcing trends and careful detailing of expectations
for continued outsourcing in the future will ensure that foreign
outsourcing is carefully accounted for in future projections
prepared by the Bureau.

February 2004

The fact that BLS projections
are based on the assumption of a labor market in balance does
not mean that employers will not experience significant difficulties
in finding and hiring workers in labor markets for individual
occupations. One bellwether indicator of the relative difficulties
that arise in hiring sufficient supplies of workers in any occu­
pation is whether any trends show a consistent pattern of rising
wages and rising employment, suggesting that the demand for
workers in the occupation in question is increasing faster than
the supply. Such a situation may represent a shortage, which is
theoretically consistent with the persistent existence of vacancies
despite rising wage offers to fill the vacant jobs.11Alternatively, the
situation may be consistent simply with a m arket that is
maintaining equilibrium by paying higher wages. In either case,
depending on the degree of mismatch between demand and
supply, especially by geographic area, there may be significant
difficulties in finding workers in particular occupations.
Consider, for example, the employment and wage trends for
registered nurses, an occupation often cited as having a shortage
of workers. Between 1994 and 2000, a period of significant
economic expansion, the net employment of usual full-time
registered nurses increased by 8.9 percent, and their real wages
declined by 0.2 percent, compared with an increase in real weekly
wages of 6.3 percent for U.S. workers as a whole. In contrast,
since 2000, despite the recession, there has been strong growth
in both employment (12.5 percent) and real wages (5.9 percent)
of registered nurses, suggestive of increased recent difficulties
in finding adequate supplies of workers in that occupational
group.
What other evidence can be gathered to develop a profile of
how relatively easy or difficult it has been in recent years to find
and hire registered nurses or, for that matter, workers in any other
occupation— and how might that evidence be used to track similar
difficulties in the future? One potentially important indicator is to
calculate the percentage of an occupation that is in the 55-yearsand-older age range— and, therefore, is theoretically ready to
retire over the next decade. On the basis o f2002 annual averages,
13.4 percent of registered nurses in this country are aged 55 and
older. The national average across all occupations is 13.9 percent.
Table 9 shows the occupations that have at least 20 percent of
their employees aged 55 and older and that are projected to have
net employment increases larger than the overall national average
of 14.8 percent. For these occupations, the table suggests that
hiring, if only for replacement purposes, is going to be fairly
brisk— and the need to expand total employment levels will only
serve to accentuate the hiring challenge.

Table 8.

Percentage distribution of occupations by immigration status, 2000-02

O c a p d io n

Architectural and engineering occupations...................
Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media
occupations..................................................................
Business and financial occupations...............................
Community and social service occupations..................
Computer and mathematical occupations......................
Construction trades.........................................................
Education, training, and library occupations.................
Extraction workers..........................................................
Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations...................
Food preparation and serving related occupations.......
Healthcare practicitioners and technical occupations ...
Healthcare support occupations.....................................
Installation, maintenance, and repair w orkers..............
Legal occupations...........................................................
Life, physical, and social science occupations............
Management occupations...............................................
Office and administrative support occupations............
Personal care and service occupations.........................
Production occupations..................................................
Protective service occupations......................................
Sales and related occupations.......................................
Transportation and material moving occupations..........
S ource:

All e m p lo y e e s

D id not
im m igrate

Im m ig ra te d
1 -5 ye a rs a g o

Im m ig ra te d
5 - 1 0 ye a rs a g o

Im m ig ra te d
m o re th a n 10
y e a rs a g o

2.1

2.1

2.2

2.0

2.5

2.0
3.9
1.5
2.4
5.6
5.4
.1
.8
8.6
4.5
1.9
3.5
1.1
.9
10.6
14.7
3.1
7.8
1.9
11.6
6.2

2.0
4.1
1.6
2.2
5.2
5.8
.1
.6
7.5
4.5
1.8
3.5
1.2
.9
11.2
15.5
3.1
7.0
2.1
11.9
6.1

1.6
1.7
.5
5.4
10.7
3.2
.0
3.1
20.4
2.3
1.6
2.2
.3
1.5
4.7
7.1
2.9
12.9
.8
7.7
7.2

1.4
2.2
.7
3.6
9.0
2.8
.1
2.1
17.4
3.8
2.5
2.8
.3
1.3
4.9
8.6
3.8
13.4
.9
9.3
7.3

1.6
3.3
1.0
2.6
6.3
3.5
.0
1.8
12.4
4.8
2.2
3.2
.7

.9
8.6
11.3
3.6
11.8
1.2
10.3
6.4

Current Population Survey.

Are there other pieces of evidence? The general problem with
addressing the question whether the U.S. labor market will have
a shortage of workers in specific occupations over the next 10
years is the difficulty of projecting, for each detailed occupation,
the dynamic labor market responses to shortage conditions.
Employers adapt to difficult hiring markets in a variety of ways:
modifying the duties of a job, changing the capital-labor ratio,
im posing m andatory shift coverage, and hiring contract
employees, immigrants, or offshore labor in foreign countries,
among other approaches. Perhaps the best that can be done is to
examine as many of these indicators as possible and develop a
profile of how the labor market is responding to the changes in
each occupation’s relative demand for, and supply of, workers.

H igh -p ayin g , fast-grow ing o ccup ations
While it is certainly a challenge to project future labor market
shortages, another question of abiding interest is what guidance
the b l s projections provide with regard to what many refer to as
“hot jobs” in the U.S. economy? In his article on occupational
employment, Hecker discusses \he fastest-growing and largestgrowing occupations.12Table 10 on pages 17-21 of the current
article lists occupations that are expected to grow faster than the
overall average and that are known to be relatively high paying
in the current economy. Table 10 also shows both the cumulative
percentage of 2002 employment and the cumulative percentage
of projected employment growth between 2002 and 2012 that is
accounted for by these fast-growing, high-paying occupations.


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The table uses the 2002 Occupational Employment Survey to
identify “high-paying” occupations, defining them as any
occupation whose mean annual earnings are in the top half of
the overall distribution of earnings. Concomitantly, “fast­
growing” occupations are defined as occupations that are
projected to grow faster than 14.8 percent (again, the national
average for all occupations).
A number of interesting aspects of the occupations listed in
table 10 readily present themselves. For one, the list is not the
exclusive domain of the fast-growing health- or computer-related
occupations— although there are obviously a great many such
occupations on the list. For example, a number of management-,
education-, sales-, art-, architecture-, design-, and accountingrelated occupations are listed. Nor does the list exclude occu­
pations in which a significant percentage of employees are not
college graduates. For example, electricians; plumbers, pipe­
fitters, and steamfitters; structural iron and steel workers;
reinforcing iron and rebar workers; tapers; tile and marble setters;
sheet m etal workers; and heating, air-conditioning, and
refrigerator mechanics and installers appear on the list. Overall,
the occupations listed in the table accounted for 31.2 percent of
employment in 2002 and are projected to account for 51 percent
of the expected net gain in employment over the 2002-12 period.

The impact o f education and training. As the discussion of
table 10 indicated, there are a number of relatively high-paying,
high-growth occupations in which the most significant source
of education or training usually is not associated with the jobMonthly Labor Review

February 2004

15

Concepts and Context

holder’s having obtained a 4-year college degree. An upcoming
b l s publication lists, for each occupation, the most significant
source of education and training generally required by em­
ployers.13 The same publication also gives the percentages of
employees in each occupation that have a high-school degree or
less, some college, or a college degree or higher. These de­
scriptions are intended to provide general guidance, and, as a
reading of the more detailed descriptions of occupations in the
BLS 2004-2005 Occupational Outlook Handbook indicates,
there is often a variety of educational or training pathways
that enable a worker to become skilled in an occupation.
In the last two decades, several important trends in edu­
cational attainment have arisen that can have a significant impact
on occupational career choices. One of these trends is that, since
the late 1970s, average premiums paid by the labor markets to
those with higher levels of education have increased. Certainly,

Table 9.

there are a number of important factors besides earnings that
help to determine the career choices made by individuals.
However, it is the growing distance, on average, between those
with more education, compared with those with less, that speaks
to a general preference on the part of employers to hire those with
skills associated with higher levels of education. As shown in
table 11, in 2000, on average, full-time wage and salary workers
with a bachelor’s degree or higher had earnings that were
nearly twice those of high school graduates. This finding
holds for both men and women.
Between 1994 and 2000, the supply of male college graduates
increased by more than 20 percent and their real earnings rose by
nearly 5 percent. (See table 11.) This willingness of the market to
absorb and reward such a substantial increase in the labor
Text continues on p. 22.

Percentage of employees and projected net employment change in selected occupations, by age group1
P e rc e n t distribution of e m p lo y e e s
b y a g e g ro u p

E m ploym ent
(thousands)

Change

O cc tp c to n
16-24

25 -64

55 a n d older

2002

2012

N um ber

P ercen t

Total jo b
openings
d u e to grow th
a n d net
re p la cem en t
(thousands)

All occupations....................................

14.7

71.4

13.9

144,015

165,319

21,305

14.8

56,305

Bus drivers...............................................
Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket
ta ke rs....................................................
Loan counselors and officers.................
Sales representatives, services,
all o th e r.................................................
Social workers..........................................

9.8

45.4

44.8

654

781

106

16.2

249

7.5
4.8

60.1
62.8

32.4
32.3

105
255

121
302

16
48

15.5
18.7

76
89

4.7
3.5

64.0
66.4

31.2
30.1

577
477

717
604

140
127

24.3
26.7

250
209

4.1

67.8

28.1

101

121

20

20.1

38

8.0

64.7

27.3

186

292

106

57.0

128

2.5

70.8

26.7

100

118

18

17.8

45

5.5
11.2

68.0
62.5

26.5
26.3

111
400

133
463

22
62

19.7
15.5

44
144

.3
8.4

74.3
66.2

25.4
25.4

48
155

56
193

9
38

18.7
24.7

19
78

5.8
11.7
.6

68.9
63.4
74.9

25.3
24.9
24.4

17
82
553

22
98
645

5
16
93

26.7
19.9
16.7

6
41
197

5.4
2.7

70.9
73.8

23.7
23.4

433
49

563
60

130
11

30.0
23.3

233
21

3.7
18.0
5.5

73.3
59.6
72.8

23.0
22.4
21.7

474
6
158

606
7
210

131
1
52

27.7
15.9
32.9

204
2
75

7.9
34.8
2.8

71.0
44.1
76.2

21.1
21.0
21.0

111
608
69

139
854
85

28
246
16

25.2
40.5
23.4

44
343
28

13.3

66.2

20.5

117

134

18

15.2

54

9.9

69.8

20.3

174

207

33

19.3

71

Environmental scientists and
geoscientists.........................................
Network systems and data
communications analysts....................
Aircraft pilots and flight engineers..........
Transportation, storage, and distribution
managers...............................................
Clergy.......................................................
Television, video, and motion picture
camera operators and editors..............
Market and survey researchers..............
Ambulance drivers and attendants,
except emergency medical
technicians............................................
Sales engineers.......................................
Chief executives......................................
Special education teachers....................
Chiropractors............................................
Human resources, training, and labor
relations specialists..............................
Transit and railroad police........................
Public relations specialists.....................
Motor vehicle operators, all other...........
Personal and home care a id e s...............
Public relations managers.......................
Food preparation and serving related
workers, all o th e r..................................
Human resources assistants, except
payroll and timekeeping.......................

16

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February 2004

Occupations that were relatively high paying in 2002 and are projected to grow faster than average over the
2002-12 projection period1
Em ploym ent
Industry

Physicians and surgeons.............................
Chief executives...........................................
Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers .
Podiatrists.....................................................
Lawyers.........................................................
Optometrists..................................................
Athletes and sports competitors.................
Computer and information systems
managers....................................................
Marketing managers......................................
All other health diagnosing and treating
practitioners...............................................
Sales managers............................................
General and operations managers..............
Chiropractors.................................................
Financial managers.......................................
Actuaries.......................................................
Computer and information scientists,
research.....................................................
Personal financial advisors...........................
Computer software engineers, systems
software......................................................
Pharmacists..................................................
Education administrators, elementary
and secondary school................................
Computer software engineers, applications .
Veterinarians..................................................
Education administrators, postsecondary....
Human resources managers.........................
Management analysts...................................
Public relations managers.............................
Industrial-organizational psychologists.......
Medical and health services managers.......
Advertising and promotions managers........
Sales engineers............................................
Agents and business managers of artists,
performers, and athletes...........................
Financial analysts.........................................
Medical scientists, except epidemiologists..
Biochemists and biophysicists....................
Transportation, storage, and distribution
managers....................................................
Computer systems analysts.........................
Biomedical engineers....................................
Physician assistants.....................................
Sales representatives, wholesale
and manufacturing, technical
and scientific products..............................
Environmental engineers..............................
Architects, except landscape and naval.....
First-line supervisors/managers of police
and detectives...........................................
Producers and directors...............................
Network systems and data
communications analysts..........................
Atmospheric and space scientists..............
Market research analysts.............................
Physical therapists.......................................
Radiation therapists......................................
Administrative services managers..............
Database administrators...............................
Hydrologists..................................................
Epidemiologists.............................................
Commercial pilots..........................................
All other computer specialists.....................
Dental hygienists..........................................


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Change
Cum ulative
p e rc e n ta g e
of to tal 2002
em ploym ent

C u m u la tive
p e rc e n ta g e of
to tal p ro je c te d
e m p lo y m e n t
change,
2 0 0 2 -1 2

19.5
16.7
18.5
15.0
17.0
17.1
19.2

0.4
.8
.8
.9
1.3
1.4
1.4

0.5
1.0
1.0
1.0
1.6
1.6
1.6

102,608
43,252

36.1
21.3

1.6
1.7

2.1
2.3

133,630
447,607
2,424,916
60,332
708,511
17,587

26,293
104,562
376,003
11,396
109,456
2,277

24.5
30.5
18.4
23.3
18.3
14.9

1.8
2.0
3.4
3.5
3.9
3.9

2.4
2.9
4.7
4.8
5.3
5.3

23,244
126,208

30,205
169,856

6,961
43,648

29.9
34.6

3.9
4.0

5.3
5.5

75,840
75,140

281,103
230,200

408,906
299,387

127,803
69,187

45.5
30.1

4.2
4.4

6.1
6.4

74,050
73,800
73,720
71,630
70,960
70,160
69,870
69,670
69,370
69,200
69,200

216,713
394,076
57,537
125,037
202,245
577,421
69,185
1,865
243,574
85,245
81,682

261,540
573,437
71,984
157,390
241,568
753,116
85,408
2,164
314,910
106,536
97,938

44,826
179,361
14,447
32,353
39,323
175,695
16,223
299
71,336
21,291
16,256

20.7
45.5
25.1
25.9
19.4
30.4
23.4
16.0
29.3
25.0
19.9

4.5
4.8
4.8
4.9
5.1
5.5
5.5
5.5
5.7
5.7
5.8

6.7
7.5
7.6
7.7
7.9
8.7
8.8
8.8
9.1
9.2
9.3

68,970
67,180
66,200
65,620

15,171
172,122
57,807
16,733

19,392
204,266
73,364
20,560

4,221
32,144
15,557
3,827

27.8
18.7
26.9
22.9

5.8
5.9
6.0
6.0

9.3
9.5
9.6
9.6

65,070
64,890
64,420
63,490

110,929
468,345
7,597
63,033

132,810
652,691
9,583
93,827

21,880
184,346
1,986
30,794

19.7
39.4
26.1
48.9

6.0
6.4
6.4
6.4

9.7
10.5
10.6
10.7

63,460
63,440
62,530

398,259
47,114
113,243

475,252
65,129
132,782

76,993
18,016
19,538

19.3
38.2
17.3

6.7
6.7
6.8

11.1
11.1
11.2

61,650
61,500

113,828
76,125

131,191
90,019

17,363
13,894

15.3
18.3

6.9
6.9

11.3
11.4

61,390
61,000
60,260
60,180
60,110
59,350
59,080
58,820
58,190
58,000
57,960
57,790

185,971
7,700
134,474
136,854
13,505
320,509
109,954
7,957
3,936
21,073
191,639
147,961

292,044
8,944
165,927
185,185
17,774
383,973
158,567
9,628
5,215
24,218
261,647
211,701

106,073
1,244
31,453
48,331
4,269
63,464
48,613
1,671
1,279
3,145
70,009
63,740

57.0
16.2
23.4
35.3
31.6
19.8
44.2
21.0
32.5
14.9
36.5
43.1

7.1
7.1
7.2
7.3
7.3
7.5
7.6
7.6
7.6
7.6
7.7
7.8

11.9
11.9
12.0
12.3
12.3
12.6
12.8
12.8
12.8
12.8
13.2
13.5

Annual
a v e ra g e
earnings2

2002

2012

$151,153
134,960
122,230
107,430
105,890
95,440
92,540

583,014
552,761
79,158
13,263
695,248
32,051
15,116

696,530
645,341
93,830
15,257
813,119
37,529
18,017

113,516
92,579
14,672
1,994
117,872
5,478
2,901

90,440
87,170

284,415
202,628

387,023
245,880

86,280
86,110
83,590
83,440
83,080
80,780

107,336
343,046
2,048,913
48,936
599,055
15,310

80,510
78,460

N um ber

P ercen t

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

17

Concepts and Context

| Continued—Occupations that were relatively high paying in 2002 and are projected to grow faster than average
over the 2002-12 projection period1
Change

Em ploym ent
Annual
a v e ra g e
earnings2

Industry

Network and computer systems
administrators............................................
First-line supervisors/managers of fire
fighting and prevention workers...............
Clinical, counseling, and school
psychologists..............................................
Microbiologists..............................................
All other life scientists..................................
Postsecondary teachers...............................
All other business operations specialists ....
Geographers..................................................
Elevator installers and repairers..................
Orthotists and prosthetists...........................
Technical writers............................................
Accountants and auditors.............................
Occupational therapists................................
Detectives and criminal investigators .........
Nuclear medicine technologists...................
Loan officers.................................................
Landscape architects...................................
Audiologists...................................................
All other financial specialists........................
Speech-language pathologists.....................
Cost estimators.............................................
Sales representatives, wholesale
and manufacturing, except technical
and scientific products..............................
Environmental scientists and specialists.....
including health..........................................
Multi-media artists and animators................
Flight attendants...........................................
Writers and authors.......................................
First-line supervisors/mariagers of mechanics,
installers, and repairers............................
Registered nurses.........................................
Diagnostic medical sonographers................
Credit analysts..............................................
Instructional coordinators.............................
Musicians and singers..................................
Compensation, benefits, and job analysis
specialists..................................................
Emergency management specialists...........
First-line supervisors/managers of correctional
o ffice rs.......................................................
Social and community service managers....
Public relations specialists...........................
Educational, vocational, and school
counselors..................................................
Appraisers and assessors of real estate....
Employment, recruitment, and placement
specialists..................................................
Secondary school teachers, except special
and vocational education...........................
Training and development specialists..........
Special education teachers..........................
Sound engineering technicians....................
Transit and railroad police.............................
Cartographers and photogrammetrists........
Film and video editors...................................
Elementary school teachers, except special
education....................................................
Electricians....................................................
Interior designers..........................................
Fine artists, including painters, sculptors,
and illustrators...........................................

18

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2002

2012

N um ber

P ercen t

C um ulative
p e rc e n ta g e
of total 2002
em ploym ent

C um ulative
p e rc e n ta g e of
to ta l p ro je c te d
e m p lo y m e n t
change,
2 0 0 2 -1 2

$57,620

251,375

345,273

93,899

37.4

8.0

13.9

56,750

62,602

74,299

11,698

18.7

8.0

14.0

56,540
55,700
55,270
54,960
54,340
54,290
53,540
53,410
53,310
53,230
53,040
52,960
52,260
52,160
52,050
51,840
51,550
51,490
51,310

137,248
16,454
25,965
1,581,247
1,055,663
817
21,012
4,631
49,584
1,055,217
81,624
93,667
17,142
223,469
23,135
10,929
161,978
94,319
188,044

170,782
19,737
30,710
2,183,986
1,346,043
977
24,603
5,505
63,030
1,260,676
110,366
114,674
21,193
265,540
28,270
14,098
190,476
119,964
223,007

33,534
3,283
4,745
602,739
290,380
160
3,591
874
13,446
205,459
28,742
21,006
4,051
42,071
5,136
3,170
28,498
25,645
34,963

24.4
20.0
18.3
38.1
27.5
19.5
17.1
18.9
27.1
19.5
35.2
22.4
23.6
18.8
22.2
29.0
17.6
27.2
18.6

8.1
8.2
8.2
9.3
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.0
10.1
10.8
10.8
10.9
10.9
11.1
11.1
11.1
11.2
11.3
11.4

14.1
14.1
14.2
17.0
18.3
18.3
18.4
18.4
18.4
19.4
19.5
19.6
19.6
19.8
19.9
19.9
20.0
20.1
20.3

51,130

1,458,800

1,738,145

279,345

19.1

12.4

21.6

50,970

65,069

80,476

15,407

23.7

12.5

21.7

50,860
50,460
50,300

74,826
104,008
138,980

86,648
120,596
161,316

11,821
16,588
22,336

15.8
15.9
16.1

12.5
12.6
12.7

21.7
21.8
21.9

50,030
49,840
49,710
49,530
49,510
48,240

443,985
2,284,459
36,508
65,934
98,454
161,154

512,275
2,907,614
45,281
78,282
123,472
188,649

68,290
623,156
8,774
12,349
25,018
27,495

15.4
27.3
24.0
18.7
25.4
17.1

13.0
14.6
14.6
14.7
14.7
14.8

22.2
25.2
25.2
25.3
25.4
25.5

47,920
47,320

90,669
10,948

116,074
14,040

25,405
3,092

28.0
28.2

14.9
14.9

25.6
25.6

47,000

33,417

39,754

6,336

19.0

14.9

25.7

46,900
46,590

128,769
158,079

164,424
210,133

35,654
52,054

27.7
32.9

15.0
15.1

25.8
26.1

46,160
46,120

228,159
88,245

262,295
103,796

34,136
15,551

15.0
17.6

15.3
15.3

26.2
26.3

46,050

174,819

222,547

47,728

27.3

15.5

26.5

46,010
46,000
45,776
45,750
45,750
45,180
44,540

987,503
208,952
432,925
12,830
6,153
8,554
19,390

1,167,231
267,248
562,698
16,097
7,132
9,846
24,507

179,728
58,296
129,772
3,266
980
1,292
5,117

18.2
27.9
30.0
25.5
15.9
15.1
26.4

16.2
16.3
16.6
16.6
16.6
16.6
16.6

27.4
27.7
28.3
28.3
28.3
28.3
28.3

44,080

1,467,155

1,690,357

223,203

15.2

17.7

29.4

43,910
43,770

659,441
60,050

813,908
73,073

154,467
13,023

23.4
21.7

18.1
18.2

30.1
30.2

43,750

23,192

27,028

3,836

16.5

18.2

30.2

February 2004

Continued—Occupations that were relatively high paying in 2002 and are projected to grow faster than average
over the 2002-12 projection period1
Change

Em ploym ent

Cum ulative
p e rc e n ta g e
of to tal 2002
em ploym ent

C u m u la tive
p e rc e n ta g e of
to ta l p ro je c te d
e m p lo y m e n t
change,
2 0 0 2 -1 2

Annual
a v e ra g e
earnings2

2002

Medical and clinical laboratory technologists..
Police and sheriff’s patrol o fficers..............
Forensic science technicians.......................
All other media and communication workers
Actors.............................................................
Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters.......
Structural iron and steel w orkers................
All other sales and related workers.............
Computer support specialists.......................
Kindergarten teachers, except special
education..................................................
Dietitians and nutritionists............................
Adult literacy, remedial education, and g e d
teachers and instructors...........................
Graphic designers.........................................
Aircraft cargo handling supervisors.............
Meeting and convention planners................
Airfield operations specialists......................
Respiratory therapists...................................
Reinforcing iron and rebar workers..............
Paralegals and legal assistants..................
Tapers............................................................
All other entertainers and performers, sports
and related w orkers...................................
Gaming supervisors......................................
Radiologic technologists and technicians ....
Archivists, curators, and museum
technicians.................................................
Telecommunications line installers
and repairers..............................................
All other media and communication
equipment workers.....................................

$43,670
43,390
43,280
43,120
42,820
42,630
42,360
42,350
42,320

149,952
618,786
8,390
57,717
63,033
492,126
78,060
576,778
506,877

178,879
771,581
9,977
67,621
74,202
584,068
90,443
717,076
660,309

28,926
152,795
1,587
9,903
11,168
91,942
12,383
140,298
153,432

19.3
24.7
18.9
17.2
17.7
18.7
15.9
24.3
30.3

18.3
18.7
18.7
18.7
18.8
19.1
19.2
19.6
19.9

30.3
31.0
31.0
31.1
31.1
31.6
31.6
32.3
33.0

42,040
41,920

168,461
48,871

214,322
57,550

45,861
8,679

27.2
17.8

20.1
20.1

33.2
33.3

41,470
41,380
41,220
41,020
40,850
40,700
40,640
40,590
40,550

80,076
211,871
8,916
36,867
6,081
85,770
28,670
199,626
40,763

96,375
258,250
10,306
44,713
7,127
115,599
33,445
256,907
49,245

16,299
46,379
1,390
7,846
1,046
29,829
4,775
57,281
8,482

20.4
21.9
15.6
21.3
17.2
34.8
16.7
28.7
20.8

20.1
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.3
20.4
20.4
20.5
20.6

33.3
33.6
33.6
33.6
33.6
33.7
33.8
34.0
34.1

40,380
40,180
40,150

56,054
38,962
174,112

65,220
45,066
214,071

9,166
6,103
39,958

16.4
15.7
22.9

20.6
20.6
20.8

34.1
34.1
34.3

39,750

22,258

26,040

3,782

17.0

20.8

34.3

39,560

167,389

198,845

31,456

18.8

20.9

34.5

39,530

24,342

29,243

4,900

20.1

20.9

34.5

Environmental engineering technicians.......
Education administrators, preschool
and child care center/program..................
Health educators...........................................
Medical and public health social workers....
Marriage and family therapists.....................
First-line supervisors/managers of protective
service workers, except police, fire, and
corrections.................................................
Tile and marble setters.................................
Cardiovascular technologists and
technicians.................................................
Sheet metal w orkers.....................................
All other vehicle and mobile equipment
mechanics, installers, and repairers........
Firefighters...................................................
Environmental science and protection
technicians, including health....................
Set and exhibit designers.............................
Occupational therapist assistants..............
All other electrical and electronic equipment
mechanics, installers, and repairers........
Legal secretaries..........................................
Audio and video equipment technicians......
All other life, physical, and social science
technicians.................................................
Loan counselors............................................
Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration
mechanics and installers...........................
Physical therapist assistants.......................
Drywall and ceiling tile installers..................
First-line supervisors/managers of land­
scaping, lawn service, and groundskeeping
workers.......................................................

39,380

19,085

24,496

5,411

28.4

20.9

34.5

39,190
39,190
38,920
38,370

57,991
44,536
107,194
23,495

76,544
54,279
137,903
28,761

18,553
9,743
30,709
5,266

32.0
21.9
28.6
22.4

21.0
21.0
21.1
21.1

34.6
34.7
34.8
34.8

38,060
37,740

56,314
33,171

69,754
41,960

13,440
8,790

23.9
26.5

21.1
21.1

34.9
34.9

37,680
37,620

43,390
205,016

57,943
245,604

14,554
40,588

33.5
19.8

21.2
21.3

35.0
35.2

37,580
37,530

35,818
281,948

41,327
340,402

5,509
58,454

15.4
20.7

21.3
21.5

35.2
35.5

37,370
37,250
36,950

27,591
12,119
18,484

37,738
14,652
25,725

10,147
2,534
7,241

36.8
20.9
39.2

21.6
21.6
21.6

35.6
35.6
35.6

36,710
36,580
36,550

21,928
263,712
41,759

26,229
313,403
52,927

4,301
49,691
11,169

19.6
18.8
26.7

21.6
21.8
21.8

35.6
35.9
35.9

36,520
36,450

137,443
31,106

161,500
36,644

24,057
5,539

17.5
17.8

21.9
21.9

36.0
36.0

36,430
36,360
36,350

248,669
50,188
135,361

327,731
72,580
164,373

79,062
22,392
29,012

31.8
44.6
21.4

22.1
22.1
22.2

36.4
36.5
36.7

36,220

149,727

182,142

32,415

21.6

22.3

36.8

Industry


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2012

N um ber

P ercen t

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

19

Concepts and Context

Continued—Occupations that were relatively high paying in 2002 and are projected to grow faster than average
over the 2002-12 projection period1
C um ulative
p e rc e n ta g e
of total 2002
em ploym ent

C um ula tive
p e rc e n ta g e of
to ta l p ro je c te d
e m p lo y m e n t
change,
2 0 0 2 -1 2

15.5
29.9
17.5
23.2
43.1

22.6
22.6
22.7
22.8
22.9

37.1
37.1
37.2
37.5
37.5

51,528
1,590

27.2
16.3

23.0
23.0

37.8
37.8

908,116
35,469
96,013
29,427

228,731
9,048
13,795
5,317

33.7
34.2
16.8
22.1

23.5
23.5
23.6
23.6

38.9
38.9
39.0
39.0

94,946

127,709

32,763

34.5

23.6

39.1

156,286

179,815

23,529

15.1

23.7

39.3

48,519
427,147
47,903

56,859
530,522
57,181

8,340
103,375
9,279

17.2
24.2
19.4

23.8
24.1
24.1

39.3
39.8
39.8

34,620
34,390
34,350
34,250
34,170
33,800
33,790
33,730
33,720

99,300
46,303
1,767,093
48,009
129,715
181,692
17,313
34,994
92,086

115,180
60,277
2,103,667
60,160
153,492
229,047
20,057
45,211
116,998

15,881
13,974
336,574
12,151
23,777
47,355
2,744
10,217
24,912

16.0
30.2
19.0
25.3
18.3
26.1
15.8
29.2
27.1

24.2
24.2
25.4
25.5
25.6
25.7
25.7
25.7
25.8

39.9
40.0
41.5
41.6
41.7
41.9
41.9
42.0
42.1

33,710
33,350
33,020
32,910
32,800
32,600
32,500

247,823
59,128
166,235
200,365
84,816
12,802
53,466

317,863
68,286
197,094
280,783
107,419
14,793
61,938

70,040
9,157
30,859
80,418
22,604
1,991
8,472

28.3
15.5
18.6
40.1
26.7
15.5
15.8

26.0
26.0
26.1
26.3
26.3
26.3
26.4

42.4
42.5
42.6
43.0
43.1
43.1
43.2

32,490
32,330

92,674
105,311

115,506
130,657

22,832
25,346

24.6
24.1

26.4
26.5

43.3
43.4

32,300
32,120
32,080
32,000
31,960

701,879
1,627
10,766
131,857
72,248

843,658
1,923
13,117
152,753
92,423

141,779
296
2,351
20,896
20,175

20.2
18.2
21.8
15.8
27.9

27.0
27.0
27.0
27.1
27.1

44.1
44.1
44.1
44.2
44.3

31,860
31,760
31,630

67,148
60,139
79,498

82,760
74,059
97,924

15,612
13,920
18,426

23.3
23.1
23.2

27.2
27.2
27.3

44.3
44.4
44.5

31,530
31,360
31,340
31,010
30,830
30,820
30,810

173,844
40,478
13,806
1,265,585
6,351
390,524
201,921

207,311
46,609
16,031
1,472,372
7,318
456,731
232,523

33,467
6,132
2,225
206,787
967
66,206
30,602

19.3
15.1
16.1
16.3
15.2
17.0
15.2

27.4
27.4
27.4
28.3
28.3
28.6
28.7

44.6
44.7
44.7
45.7
45.7
46.0
46.1

30,430
30,360
30,330
30,310
30,250
29,910

229,910
20,246
147,462
21,660
22,929
182,720

267,243
27,055
176,127
25,626
27,748
263,947

37,333
6,809
28,665
3,966
4,819
81,227

16.2
33.6
19.4
18.3
21.0
44.5

28.9
28.9
29.0
29.0
29.0
29.2

46.3
46.3
46.5
46.5
46.5
46.9

Em ploym ent

Change

A nnual
a v e ra g e
earnings2

2002

Clergy............................................................
Athletic trainers.............................................
Painters, transportation equipment.............
Child, family, and school social workers.....
Hazardous materials removal workers.........
All other health practitioners and technical
workers.......................................................
Audio-visual collections specialists.............
All other teachers, primary, secondary,
and a d u lt....................................................
Respiratory therapy technicians..................
Carpet installers............................................
Interpreters and translators..........................
Mental health and substance abuse social
workers.......................................................
Computer, automated teller, and office
machine repairers.......................................

$36,080
36,070
35,700
35,640
35,610

400,485
14,283
49,999
274,455
37,559

462,599
18,548
58,751
338,049
53,760

62,114
4,265
8,752
63,594
16,201

35,530
35,370

189,504
9,771

241,031
11,361

35,210
34,930
34,920
34,900

679,385
26,421
82,218
24,111

34,860
34,810

Glaziers.........................................................
Correctional officers and jailers....................
Biological technicians...................................
Water and liquid waste treatment plant
and system operators................................
Security and fire alarm systems installers...
Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer.......
Private detectives and investigators...........
Coaches and scouts.....................................
Cement masons and concrete finishers......
Choreographers.............................................
Desktop publishers.......................................
Massage therapists.......................................
All other counselors, social, and religious
workers.......................................................
Cargo and freight agents..............................
Roofers..........................................................
Self-enrichment education teachers............
Mental health counselors..............................
Lay-out workers, metal and plastic.............
Insulation workers.........................................
All other library, museum, training, and other
education workers......................................
Directors, religious activities and education
Licensed practical and licensed vocational
nurses........................................................
Makeup artists, theatrical and performance
Mechanical door repairers.............................
Chefs and head cooks..................................
Surgical technologists...................................
Substance abuse and behavioral disorder
counselors..................................................
Surveying and mapping technicians............
Tax preparers.................................................
Human resources assistants, except payroll
and timekeeping.........................................
All other related transportation workers......
Medical appliance technicians.....................
Maintenance and repair workers, general....
Terrazzo workers and finishers....................
Welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers ....
Bus drivers, transit and intercity.................
First-line supervisors/managers
of housekeeping and janitorial workers....
Survey researchers.......................................
Medical and clinical laboratory technicians..
Motorboat mechanics....................................
Locksmiths and safe repairers....................
Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors ....

34,660
34,650
34,630

Industry

20

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February 2004

2012

N um be r

P ercen t

Continued—Occupations that were relatively high paying in 2002 and are projected to grow faster than average
over the 2002-12 projection period'

Industry

Septic tank servicers and sewer pipe
cleaners......................................................
Segmental pavers.........................................
Motorcycle mechanics..................................
Rehabilitation counselors..............................
Recreational vehicle service technicians....
Bill and account collectors...........................
Coin, vending, and amusement machine
servicers and repairers..............................
Customer service representatives..............
Dental assistants..........................................
All other air transportation workers.............
Opticians, dispensing...................................
Medical transcriptionists...............................

2002

$29,750
29,630
28,690
28,590
28,530
28,330

17,923
2,170
15,095
122,239
12,552
412,966

21,724
2,527
17,916
163,536
15,287
513,945

3,801
357
2,821
41,298
2,735
100,979

28,250
28,240
27,910
27,910
27,830
27,730

42,729
1,894,053
266,025
11,725
63,207
100,830

49,212
2,353,786
378,992
13,999
74,681
123,637

6,483
459,732
112,967
2,274
11,474
22,807

2012

Cum ulative
p e rc e n ta g e
of to tal 2002
em ploym ent

C u m u la tive
p e rc e n ta g e of
to ta l p ro je c te d
e m p lo y m e n t
change,
2 0 0 2 -1 2

21.2
16.5
18.7
33.8
21.8
24.5

29.2
29.2
29.2
29.3
29.3
29.6

46.9
46.9
46.9
47.1
47.1
47.6

15.2
24.3
42.5
19.4
18.2
22.6

29.6
30.9
31.1
31.1
31.2
31.2

47.6
49.8
50.3
50.3
50.4
50.5

Change

Em ploym ent
Annual
a v e ra g e
earnings2

N um ber

P ercen t

1 R e la tive ly h igh p a y in g is defined as “having average annual earnings that projected employment change equal to or exceeding 14.8 percent, the overall
are in the top two quartiles of the overall distribution of earnings in the 2002
average of the projections.”
Occupational Employment Survey.” F a st g ro w in g is defined as “having a

Employment and average real weekly earnings of usual full-time wage and salary workers, by gender and level of
educational attainment, 1994-2000
Em ploym ent
(thousands)

Real w e e k ly ea rn in g s in 20 02 CPI-U dollars

Population
1994

2000

P ercen t
change

1994

2000

P ercen t
change

Earnings as a
p e r c e n t a g e of
a v e ra g e high
school
earnings in
2000

Total...........................................
Less than high school...........
High school.............................
Some college, no degree......
Associate’s degree, educational
Associate’s degree, vocational
Bachelor’s degree.................
Master’s degree or higher.....

87,382
9,373
29,992
17,377
4,027
3,315
15,872
7,427

99,917
10,674
32,213
19,403
4,588
4,189
19,534
9,315

14.3
13.9
7.4
11.7
13.9
26.4
23.1
25.4

$697
415
556
633
673
705
938
1,270

$724
409
562
644
673
711
996
1,273

3.9
-1.4
1.1
1.7
.0
.9
6.2
.2

128.8
72.8
100.0
114.6
119.8
126.5
177.2
226.5

Some college..........................
Bachelor’s degree or higher...

24,719
23,299

28,181
28,849

14.0
23.8

649
1,044

659
1,085

1.5
3.9

117.3
193.1

Men............................................
Less than high school...........
High school.............................
Some college, no degree......
Associate’s degree, educational
Associate’s degree, vocational
Bachelor’s degree.................
Master’s degree or higher.....

49,993
6,325
17,052
9,534
2,077
1,675
8,960
4,372

56,273
7,010
18,267
10,539
2,432
1,971
10,757
5,297

12.6
10.8
7.1
10.5
17.1
17.7
20.1
21.2

787
453
630
724
758
797
1,079
1,426

821
452
638
738
777
833
1,146
1,460

4.3
-.2
1.3
1.9
2.5
4.5
6.2
2.4

128.7
70.8
100.0
115.7
121.8
130.6
179.6
228.8

Some college..........................
Bachelor’s degree or higher...

13,285
13,332

14,942
16,054

12.5
20.4

739
1,193

757
1,250

2.4
4.8

118.7
195.9

Women.......................................
Less than high school...........
High school.............................
Some college, no degree......
Associate’s degree, educational
Associate’s degree, vocational
Bachelor’s degree.................
Master’s degree or higher.....
Some college..........................
Bachelor’s degree or higher...

37,387
3,048
12,940
7,843
1,950
1,641
6,912
3,055
11,434
9,966

43,644
3,664
13,946
8,865
2,156
2,219
8,777
4,018
13,239
12,795

16.7
20.2
7.8
13.0
10.6
35.2
27.0
31.5
15.8
28.4

578
336
458
523
583
611
755
1,047
546
845

599
328
463
532
554
603
811
1,026
548
879

3.6
-2.4
1.1
1.7
-5.0
-1.3
7.4
-2.0
.4
4.0

129.4
70.8
100.0
114.9
119.7
130.2
175.2
221.6
118.4
189.8

S ource:

Current Population Survey, quarterly sample, annual averages.


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Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

21

Concepts and Context

supply of men who have graduated from college is an indicator of
the continued relative increase in the demand for workers with
more education. Earnings of men with some college (including
those with associate’s degrees) increased by 2 .4 percent, and the
employment of the group grew by 13 percent. Real earnings of
female college graduates rose by 4 percent, and their employment
increased by nearly 30 percent. Women with some college saw
their real earnings remain steady, while their em ploym ent
increased by 16 percent.
T his issue of th e

m o n t h l y

l a b o r

r e v ie w

presents

PROJECTIONS o f in d u s tr y a n d o c c u p a t io n a l e m p lo y m e n t

trends. These projections form the basis for providing career
advice to individuals entering the job market, changing careers,
or making further educational and training choices. Although
the Bureau of Labor Statistics must judge its work against an
uncertain future, a hallmark of the agency’s projections is that
the assumptions and model-based findings on which they are
grounded are made explicit. Further, while much is known in terms
of trends in economic series to date, past is not always prologue,
and care m ust always be taken whenever projections are
involved. With these points in mind, the reader will be better able
to appraise and utilize the carefully thought-out content of the
articles presented in this issue of the Review.
□

Notes
1 Total job openings are given by the sum of net employment in­
creases and net replacements. If employment change is negative, job
openings due to growth are zero and total job openings equal net
replacements.
2 In traditional national income accounting practices, nominal gross
duplicated output (also called double counting) is a measure of duplicated
output, by virtue of the fact that it ncludes intermediate inputs which
are eventually part of final output. This article uses nominal, rather
than real, 1996 chain-weighted gross duplicated output because adding
the outputs of various industries under the latter concept does not yield
total output.
3 Perhaps nowhere is the contrast more apparent than in the
production o f computers compared with the provision o f computer
services. The production of computers is a capital-intensive enterprise.
Between 1992 and 2002, nonfarm wage and salary employment in the
computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing industry fell by 24
percent, from 329,000 to 250,000. Over the same period, output in
the industry grew from $28 billion to $263 billion (in 1996 chainweighted dollars), an increase of more than 24.9 percent per year. In
the computer systems design and related services industry, employment
increased by more than 161 percent, from 445,000 to 1,163,000 over
the 1992-2002 period. Output also increased over the same period, at
an annual rate o f 8.8 percent. The Bureau projects a similar trend in
the two industries over the 2 002-12 period. (See Jay M. Berman,
“Industry output and employment projections to 2012,” this issue, pp.
58-79, table 3.)

22

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4 Daniel E. Hecker, “Occupational em ployment projections to
2012,” this issue, pp. 80-105.
5 See Berman, “Industry output and employment projections to
2012,” table 4.
6 Ibid., table 5.
7 Ibid., table 6.
8 Ibid., table 7.
9 Mitra Toossi, “A century of change: The U.S. labor force, 19502050, Monthly Labor Review, May 2002, pp. 15-28.
10 The material in this section was prepared both by the author and
by Norman Saunders, Division of Industry Employment Projections,
Office of Occupational Statistics and Employment Projections.
11 Currently, however, there are no national surveys of occupations
that provide information either on the durations o f vacancies or on
wage offers. The b l s Job Openings and Labor Turnover Survey
estimates job openings by industry for the entire U.S. economy, and
37 States conduct job vacancy surveys that estimate job openings by
occupation.
12 Hecker, “Occupational employment projections to 2012”; see
especially tables 3 and 4.
13 2004-2005 Occupational Projections and Training Data,
forthcoming.

The U.S. Economy

Employment outfoolc 2002-12

The U.S. economy
to 2012: signs of growth
Based on the assumptions used in developing economic
projections, real GDP is expected to grow during
the next decade, while productivity remains strong
and inflation remains stable

Betty W. Su

Betty W. Su is an
economist in the
Division of Industry
Employment
Projections, Office
of Occupational
Statistics and
Employment
Projections, Bureau
of Labor Statistics.
E-mail: Su_B@bls.gov.


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very 2 years, the Bureau of Labor Statistics
prepares a set of projected U.S. economic
ffactors that form the basis for the em­
ploym ent projections program . This article
presents the projections of U.S. economic factors
that underlie the 2002-12 employment projections.
This set of aggregate economic projections pre­
sents some unique challenges. After the boom of
the 1990s, the U.S. economy suffered a number of
serious setbacks, including: the bursting of the
technology bubble; the September 11, 2001, ter­
rorist attacks; significant losses of stock market
wealth; a stagnant job market; corporate account­
ing scandals; and uncertainties related to the war
in Iraq.
A lthough the econom y has had difficulty
shaking off a stubborn slowdown, recent statistical
data suggest that we are now poised for a more
sustained recovery. During the 2000-02 period, the
U.S. economy has experienced low inflation, low
interest rates, strong productivity growth, and a
healthy housing market. Also, both government
monetary and fiscal policies have been focused on
stim ulating econom ic growth. Under the as­
sumptions used by the Bureau in developing these
projections, gross domestic product (GDP) is
expected to reach $12.6 trillion in chained 1996
dollars by 2012, an increase of $3.2 trillion during
the 2002-12 decade. (Also see box on page 25.)1
This translates to an average annual rate of growth
for real GDP of 3.0 percent over the period, 0.2

E

percentage point lower than the historical rate of
3.2 percent from 1992 to 2002. A slower growth of
civilian household employment, from 1.3 percent a
year during the 1992-2002 period to 1.2 percent
from 2002 to 2012, is expected to result in an increase
of 17.3 million employees over the latter period,
still greater than the increase of 15.8 million
employees over the preceding 10-year period,
from 1992 to 2002. The employment projection is
accompanied by an expected unemployment rate
of 5.2 percent in 2012,0.6 percentage point lower
than that in 2002.
Reflecting increased globalization of the U.S.
economy, foreign sectors are expected to continue
their fast growing trend in the next 10 years. Besides
foreign trade, gross private domestic investment
also is expected to play a substantial role in the
economy over the 2002-12 period. Business
spending on high-tech and com puter-related
equipment is anticipated to lead the rapid growth.
On the government side, a projected increase in
defense spending reflects the long-term efforts to
win the global war on terrorism and protect the
American homeland.
This article begins the discussion of economic
projections with the macroeconomic model and
major underlying assumptions. It then examines
more closely the projections of aggregate de­
mand categories of g d p . Lastly, the Bureau’s ex­
pectations for the growth of incomes, employment,
and labor productivity are discussed in turn. The

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

23

The U.S. Economy

projections are described in the context of trends over the
2002-12 period.

The m a c ro e c o n o m ic m o d e l
The aggregate economic projections presented in this article
have been developed in the context of the macroeconomic
model provided by Macroeconomic Advisers, LLC, a St. Louis,
m o , based forecasting group.2The company’s quarterly model
comprises 609 variables descriptive of the U.S. economy, of
which 169 are exogenous assumptions— that is, variables
whose values m ust be provided to the model in order to
calculate a solution for a given period of time. Among the 169
exogenous variables, only a relatively small number of these
assumptions significantly affect the long-term projections of
the value o f g d p and its demand makeup, as well as the level
of employment necessary to produce that g d p . Those key
assumptions are listed in table 1.
In addition, the projections are generally prepared with
selected variables, such as the inflation rate, the level of the
unemployment rate, the labor productivity growth rate, and
the international trade-related issue, which are much more
carefully evaluated than the other variables in the model.
Setting a preliminary target value for those key variables, helps
in defining the parameters around which overall projections
are developed.

M a jo r assum ptions
Monetary policy.

Early in 2001, just before the economy
officially entered a recession,3the Federal Reserve started easing
monetary policy and cutting the Federal funds rate. Within a
year, the rate was cut a total of 11 times, from 6.50 percent to 1.75
percent. In the following year, the rate fell further, to 1.25 percent
in November, in response to the economic shocks accompanying
the 9/11 attacks and the war with Iraq. Increasingly worried that
U.S. economic growth was close to stalling, the Federal Reserve
cut the funds rate again in late June 2003 to a 45-year low of 1.00
percent to help revive the economy and help prevent the
economically dangerous threat of deflation.4
Generally, the monetary sector in the econometric model is
designed to determine the money supply with a long-term steady
growth. The BLS projection assumes that once growth recovers
towards “trend,” the Federal Reserve will reverse course and
undertake monetary tightening that will push the funds rate up.
By 2012, the Federal funds rate is assumed to rise to 5.33 per­
cent, a rate close to its historical average. Bond yields will
generally move parallel to the funds rate over the projection
interval, but run somewhat higher. The yield on the 10-year
Treasury note is expected to reach 6.25 percent in 2012. (See
table 1.)

24

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Fiscal policy.

The Bureau’s 10-year projections incorporate
the policy impacts associated with three major tax bills enacted
in the past 2-1/2 years. The first tax cuts are the immediate
implementation of provisions in the “Economic Growth and
Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of 2001 ” (EGTRRA or Economic
Growth Act); the second tax cuts are the provisions of the
“Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act of 2002” ( j c w a a ,
or Job Creation A c t); and the third are the recently enacted
provisions of the “Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation
Act of 2003” ( j g t r r a or Jobs and Tax Relief Act). The fiscal
stimulus packages include reduced tax rates for individuals
and on capital gains, and increases of expensing limits for
certain types of investment. Although some of the provisions
in the Jobs and Tax Relief Act are set to expire and return to
the provisions set in the Economic Growth Act, and all of the
provisions of the Economic Growth Act are scheduled to
expire in 2010 and return to prior law, the model assumes that
the provisions will be extended through the projection period.5
Tax-related assumptions affect Federal Government re­
venues. The Federal effective m arginal personal tax rate
increased from 21.3 percent of personal income in 1992 to 22.5
percent by 2002. Reflecting the recently enacted tax cut
package, a gradual decrease in this rate is expected to occur
over the next decade. In the BLS projections, it is assumed
that the effective marginal personal tax rate will drop to 21.4
percent in 2012, noticeably lower than that in 2002. The
effective m arginal dividends tax rate is expected to drop
significantly from 28.0 percent in 2002 to 22.5 percent in 2012,
while the capital gains tax rate is anticipated to fall from 18.8
percent in 2002 to 15.0 percent in 2012. The maximum Federal
corporate tax rate is assumed to be maintained at 35.0 percent
in 2012; the same as in 2002.

Government spending and the budget deficit. Since 2001,
Federal defense spending has increased sharply in response to
the terrorist attacks of September 11 and the military operations
in Afghanistan and Iraq. The acceleration of spending, together
with reduced revenues due to the recent economic slowdown
and legislation enacted over the past couple of years, has pushed
the Federal budget from a surplus of $207 billion in 2000 and $72
billion in 2001 to a deficit of $202 billion in 2002 and an estimated
$400 billion in 2003. According to the Department of Defense’s
current established budget plan for the next 6 years through
2009, it would require funding at higher levels than defense
spending has been in any year since 1980. The budget
emphasizes strong support for the global war on terrorism,
sustaining high quality personnel and forces, and transforming
the U.S. defense establishm ent.6 On the basis of Defense
Department estimates, the Bureau has assumed that, after 2009,
defense spending will continue the same trend toward increased
levels, growing about 2 percent per year through the rest of the
projection period.

The 2003 comprehensive

ñipa

revision

In December 2003, the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA),
Department of Commerce, released the 2003 comprehensive,
or benchmark, revision of National Income and Product
A ccounts (n ip a ’ s). This latest com prehensive revision
characterizes the changes in definitions and classifications,
methodologies and source data, as well as changes to the tables
that present the economic figures. In the comprehensive
revision, the reference year for the statistical time-series data
has been advanced from 1996 to 2000 for the chain-weigheddollar estimates. The implications of those changes do not
affect the projections in this issue, because the bls projections

were completed prior to the nipa revision. A ll the data
presented in the 2002-12 projections are still measured on a
chained-1996 dollars basis, and the historical data presented in
this article are consistent with data published through the b ea ’s
November 2003 issue of the Survey o f Current Business, the
last issue before the comprehensive revision.

In addition, the significant long-term strains on spending
will begin to intensify within the next decade as the babyboom generation begins reaching retirem ent age. Driving
those pressures on the budget will be growth in the largest
retirem ent and health programs. Federal spending on Social
Security, Medicare, and Medicaid will consume a growing
portion of budgetary resources, bls assumes that long-term
defense spending on consumption and gross investment will
continue to rise over the entire projection period. In short,
high spending levels accompanying tax reductions will add
to fiscal stimulus throughout the entire projections, but will
result in budget deficits, reaching an estimated $ 164 billion in
nominal terms in 2012. (A further discussion is presented later
in the “Federal G overnment” section.)

of total U.S. demand in 1992 and 39.5 percent in 2002 to 31.2
percent by 2012.7

Further information on the nipa revision and the time series
estimates are available in the December 2003 issue of the
Survey o f C urrent B usiness, or on the In te rn e t at:

www.bea.gov/hational/2003 comprehensive revision of the
National Income and Product Accounts.

Demographic assumptions.

The demographic assumptions
are based on the 2000 Census m iddle-series population
projections. These projections estimate the U.S. population
to be expanding at an annual rate of 0.9 percent between 2002
and 2012, when the population reaches 315 million. Growth in
the older age cohorts will be strong as baby boomers age. The
bls labor force projections are consistent with the Census Bureau
population projections and are prepared at detailed levels as well
as for the aggregate; the estimates then carry over to the
aggregate economic model.8

Inflation.
Energy.

Among the energy-related assumptions, the most
important is the refiners’ acquisition price for cmde oil, expressed
in dollars per barrel. Growing concerns about a U.S. confrontation
with Iraq and wider disruptions to Gulf supplies drove U.S. crude
oil over $40 per barrel in February 2003, approaching the $41.15
record set during the buildup to the 1991 Gulf War. Although oil
prices dropped after the U.S. attacked Iraq, with little disruption
to Middle East crude flows, energy prices are still on the high
side.
In the aggregate economic model, the level of GDPdetermines
the level of energy demanded by the economy; the price of
crude oil determines the level of domestic production, and the
residual amount of the energy demand not met by domestic
production is, by assumption, met by imports of crude pe­
troleum. This particular assumption is drawn from annual
energy projections prepared by the U.S. D epartm ent of
Energy, which expects the dollar value o f a barrel o f crude oil
to rise from about $23.61 per barrel in 2002 in nominal terms to
$30.52 per barrel in 2012. The domestic share of crude-oil
production is expected to continue to decline from 54.6 percent


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After accelerating in the 1970s and early 1980s,
inflation has slowed significantly in recent years. Combined
with high productivity, relatively cheaper imports, and the
absence of commodity shocks, even during a long-lived
expansion in the 1990s, changes in the labor market prevented
any significant acceleration of wages. W hile wage pressures
remained remarkably modest, inflation remained moderate.
M onetary policy rem ains im portant in the long-term
projections, not so much in determining the level of output, but
rather in determining the rate of inflation. With a steady-state
rate of inflation in mind, it is assumed that the Federal Reserve
will attempt to keep inflation contained over the projection period
while providing adequate money growth to fuel economic
expansion. The rate of inflation, as measured by the chainweighted gdp price index, will grow at an average rate of 2 .2
percent per year over the projection horizon.

Unemployment rate. During the recession of 2001, the
unemployment rate rose from a 30-year low of 4.0 percent in 2000
to 4.7 percent in 2001 and jumped further to 5.8 percent in 2002.
The unemployment rate reached an 8-year-high of 6.0 percent in

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

25

The U.S. Economy

Table 1.

Major assumptions affecting aggregate projections, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
Billions of c h a in e d 1996 dollars
A v e r a g e a n n u a l ra te of c h a n g e

(unless n o te d )
Exogenous v a ria b les
1982

Monetary policy-related:
Federal funds rate (percent)................................
Excess reserves (billions of dollars)..................
Ninety-day Treasury bill rate (percent)...............
Yields on 10-year Treasury notes (percent).......
Fiscal policy, tax-related:
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on wages
and salaries (percent)......................................
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on interest
income (percent)...............................................
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on dividend
income (percent)...............................................
Effective Federal marginal tax rate on capital
gains (percent)..................................................
Maximum Federal corporate rate (percent).........
Government outlays-related:...................................
Defense consumption, other................................
Defense gross investment expenditures............
Nondefense consumption, other..........................
Nondefense gross investment expenditures......
Federal transfer payments to persons, other.....
Federal grants-in-aid to State and local
governments, M edicaid....................................
Federal grants-in-aid to State and local
governments, other...........................................
Energy-related:
Refiners’ acquisition cost of imported oil (nominal
dollars per barrel)..............................................
Domestic share of U.S. crude oil acquisitions
(as percentage of total acquisitions)..............
Domestic oil product.............................................
Demographic-related:
Total population includiing overseas Armed Forces
(in millions)........................................................
Population aged 16 and over (in m illions)..........

1992

1 9 9 2 -2 0 0 2

2 0 0 2 -1 2

1.67
1.50
1.60
4.61

5.33
3.30
5.03
6.25

-11.7
9.6
-10.7
-6.0

-7.2
4.1
-7.3
^t.1

12.3
8.2
12.1
3.1

28.0

21.3

22.5

21.4

-2.7

.5

-.5

28.5

22.0

24.5

23.0

-2.6

1.1

-.6

37.1

25.1

28.0

22.5

-3.8

1.1

-2.2

40.7
46.0

25.7
34.0

18.8
35.0

15.0
35.0

-4.5
-3.0

-3.1
.3

-2.2
.0

101.0
38.2
36.9
14.8
81.0

124.8
66.4
52.4
28.0
105.0

152.1
63.3
58.3
45.9
139.3

225.5
99.5
60.4
54.1
170.5

2.1
5.7
3.6
6.6
2.6

2.0
-.5
1.1
5.1
2.9

4.0
4.6
.4
1.7
2.0

38.7

81.4

127.8

154.3

7.7

4.6

1.9

81.4

87.0

140.2

175.7

.7

4.9

2.3

33.59

18.11

23.61

30.52

-6.0

2.7

2.6

72.2
38.9

54.6
35.0

39.5
31.5

31.2
28.5

-2.8
-1.1

-3.2
-1.0

-2.3
-1.0

231.9
172.3

255.4
192.8

287.5
218.0

314.8
242.0

1.0
1.1

.9
1.0

.9
1.1

Productivity growth.

It is the economy’s ability to increase
supply in the face of increasing demand over the long run that
determines its potential growth path. Growth in aggregate supply
depends on the increase in the labor force, the growth of the
capital stock, and improvements in productivity. In general, pro­
ductivity is a cyclical variable that typically falls during re­
cessions because both labor and capital are underutilized as
output sags or grows more slowly. Surprisingly, productivity
Monthly Labor Review

1 9 8 2 -9 2

3.52
1.00
3.43
7.01

2003. However, the model assumes that long-term economic
growth and job recovery will gradually push the unemployment
rate down over the projection period. Keeping the labor force
projections with steady inflation in mind, by the end of the
projection interval, the economy is expected to make a transition
towards “full employment.” This underlies the expected un­
employment rate of 5.2 percent in 2012. (A further discussion is
presented later in the “Em ploym ent” section.)

26

2012

12.26
.40
10.61
13.00

S o u r c e : Historical data— Federal Reserve Board, Bureau of Economic
Analysis, Energy Information Administration, and Census Bureau ; projected


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2002

February 2004

data—Bureau of Labor Statistics, Energy Information Administration, and
Census Bureau.

never declined during the most recent economic downturn. Better
still, acceleration has continued even as investment in infor­
mation technology has fallen from its late-1990’s peak. Pro­
ductivity has increased at its fastest pace of more than 3.0 percent
annually over the 2000-02 period, compared with 2.5 percent
yearly from 1995 to 2000 and 1.4 percent from 1973 to 1995.
It is unclear to what extent the continued rise is due to unusual
cyclical factors and to what extent the rise reflects a further
increase in underlying structural productivity. It is clear that
productivity growth is the main influence on long-term growth
and living standards. The projections assume that productivity
will keep close to its previous 10-year trend and grow at an
average of 2.1 percent per year during the projection period. The
increase is consistent with a projected faster growth of the capital
stock and capital services, as well as more capital deepening
over the same projection horizon. (A further discussion is
addressed in the “Productivity” section.)

International trade.

The trade deficit has widened and the
current account deficit has deteriorated significantly since
1998. The U .S. trade deficit reached $424 billion or 4.1 percent
of g d p in 2 0 0 2 , a record in nominal dollars and as a percentage
of g d p . Slow economic growth abroad has continued to depress
the growth of U.S. exports, as the economies of many major
European countries are still struggling toward recovery and as
Japan lags behind U.S. growth. In addition, the drop in the U.S.
dollar since 2002 is still modest on a trade-weighted basis. In the
long run, the greatest uncertainty lies with potential export
growth, depending as it does on growth in the economies of
major U.S. trading partners in the European Community and in
the Pacific Rim countries. The dollar will have to depreciate
steadily against foreign currencies in order to keep the U.S.
current account deficit from growing too fast. Over the next
decade, the projection contemplates that the exchange rate will
drift downward over the projection period. A trade deficit in
goods will still exist throughout the entire projections, while a
surplus in services will continue to improve. (A detailed dis­
cussion on exports and imports is described in the “exports and
imports” section.)
In sum, the projections anticipate a growth economy,
including a steady expansion o f the labor force, strong
productivity growth, a favorable outlook regarding inflation, and
opportunities for jobs.

A g g re g a te d e m a n d

gdp

After the late-1990’s boom, the U.S. economy began to slow
down in the middle of 2000, with a recession taking place in
2001. During the 3-year period ending in mid-2003— a period
including the burst of the stock market bubble, the shock of 9/11,
corporate accounting scandals, and uncertainties associated
Table 2.

with the war in Iraq— the U.S. economy struggled with belowtrend real growth at an annual average of roughly 1.6 percent
from 2000 to the second quarter o f2003. The path of growth was
insufficient to keep the unemployment rate from continuing to
rise, in part because of the hefty growth of productivity, which
enables companies to get more output from fewer workers. During
this period, consumer spending was m oderate, inventory
accumulation was slow, business investment was sluggish,
foreign trade deficits were wide, and only defense spending was
growing with any real strength. In the second half of 2003,
however, statistics indicate a sharp increase in output, providing
significant evidence that the U.S. economy has begun to
strengthen.9As mentioned earlier, over the long term, real g dp is
projected to grow at an average annual rate of 3.0 percent per
year over the 2002-12 span.

Personal consumption expenditures.

Spending by con­
sumers, which makes up two-thirds of economic activity, is the
largest component of demand. During the past four decades, the
growth of consumer spending reflected the interaction of many
factors that influenced consumers’ decisions. Among those par­
ticularly important factors were: increasing affluence, changing
demographics, technological innovations, and changing tastes
and lifestyles. Affected by the wave of baby boomers moving
through the population beginning in the 1960s, consumer
spending grew from an average of 2.5 percent yearly between
1972 and 1982 up to 3.4 percent over the latter 10-year period,
from 1982 to 1992. Rising disposable incomes during these
periods supplied the resources necessary to support the ex­
pansion in consumption. As consumers got into the spending
habit, however, increases in personal consumption were more
often made at the expense of the savings rate, which dropped
from a high of 10.9 percent in 1982 to 8.7 percent by 1992. (See
tables 2 and 3.)

Gross domestic product by major demand category, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
Billions of c h a in e d 1996 dollars

A v e r a g e a n n u a l ra te of c h a n g e

C a te g o ry
1982

Gross domestic product...........................................
Personal consumption expenditures.......................
Gross private domestic investment.........................
Exports......................................................................
Im ports......................................................................
Federal defense consumption expenditures..........
and gross investment.............................................
Federal nondefense consumption expenditures.....
and gross investment.............................................
State and local consumption expenditures............
and gross investment.............................................
Residual1....................................................................

1992

2002

2012

19 82-92

1 9 9 2 -2 0 0 2

2 0 0 2 -1 2

$4,919.4
3,275.5
615.3
314.6
329.2

$6,880.1
4,594.5
899.8
651.0
670.8

$9,439.9
6,576.0
1,589.6
1,058.8
1,547.4

$12,638.0
8,673.3
2,728.1
1,842.2
2,576.8

3.4
3.4
3.9
7.5
7.4

3.2
3.7
5.9
5.0
8.7

3.0
2.8
5.5
5.7
5.2

333.6

417.1

400.0

510.2

2.3

-.4

2.5

129.8

177.9

213.3

238.7

3.2

1.8

1.1

815.3
-4.6

1,099.7
49.9

1,267.2
-45.0

3.4
-

3.0
-

1.4
-

I

584.6
-4.9

1The residual is calculated as real gross domestic product, plus imports,
less other components.
N o t e : Dash indicates data not computable.


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

S o u r c e : Historical data—Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected
data— Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

27

The U.S. Economy

Table 3.

Personal income, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
A v e ra g e annual
ra te of c h a n g e

P ercen t distribution

Billions o f cu rre n t dollars
C a te g o ry
1982

1992

2002

2012

1982

Personal Income................................ $2,768.4 $5,390.4 $8,922.2 $14,949.0
Labor Income................................... 1,816.2 3,432.1 5,607.0
9,685.8
Disbursements of wages and
salaries..................................... 1,593.4 2,982.6 4,996.4
8,568.0
Other labor income.......................
222.8
449.6
610.7
1,117.8
Business-related personal Income..
697.1
1,433.1 2,411.1
3,650.3
Proprietors’ income.......................
179.9
434.4
756.5
1,226.8
Rental income..............................
39.5
63.3
142.4
198.2
Personal dividend income...........
76.1
185.3
433.8
697.4
Personal interest income............
401.6
750.2 1,078.4
1,527.8
Transfer payments...........................
354.1
751.7 1,288.0
2,324.6
Less social insurance
contributions.................................
-99.1
-226.6
-711.7
-384.0

1992

2002

2012

1 9 8 2 -9 2

1 9 9 2 -2 0 0 2

2 0 0 2 -1 2

100.0
65.6

100.0
63.7

100.0
62.8

100.0
64.8

6.9
6.6

5.2
5.0

5.3
5.6

57.6
8.0
25.2
6.5
1.4
2.7
14.5
12.8

55.3
8.3
26.6
8.1
1.2
3.4
13.9
13.9

56.0
6.8
27.0
8.5
1.6
4.9
12.1
14.4

57.3
7.5
24.4
8.2
1.3
4.7
10.2
15.6

6.5
7.3
7.5
9.2
4.8
9.3
6.4
7.8

5.3
3.1
5.3
5.7
8.4
8.9
3.7
5.5

5.5
6.2
4.2
5.0
3.4
4.9
3.5
6.1

-3.6

-4.2

-4.3

-4.8

8.6

5.4

6.4

100.0
75.1
13.1
2.1
.2
9.5

100.0
78.1
11.8
2.2
.2
7.7

100.0
81.9
12.5
2.1
.4
3.2

100.0
82.9
12.7
2.0
.4
2.0

6.9
7.3
5.8
7.3
6.8
4.7

5.2
5.7
5.7
4.7
9.9
-3.6

5.3
5.4
5.5
4.6
5.4
.6

Uses

Personal income.................................
Personal consumption....................
Tax and nontax payments...............
Personal interest payments............
Transfers to foreigners....................
Personal savings.............................

2,768.4
2,079.3
361.6
58.8
6.5
262.2

5,390.4
4,209.6
635.8
118.7
12.6
413.7

8,922.2
7,303.8
1,111.9
188.4
32.3
285.8

14,949.0
12,394.0
1,899.8
296.5
54.7
304.0

2,406.8

4,754.6

7,810.3

13,049.2

-

-

-

-

7.0

5.1

5.3

3,791.6
10,377

5,189.3
18,619

7,032.1
27,170

9,131.5
41,459

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

3.2
6.0

3.1
4.1

2.6
4.3

16,349
10.9

20,320
8.7

24,463
3.7

29,012
2.3

-

-

-

-

2.2
-2.3

2.1
-8.3

1.7
-4.4

A ddenda

Disposable personal Incom e.............
Disposable personal incom e,............
chained 1996 d ollars.....................
Per capita disposable income...........
Per capita disposable income,
chained 1996 do lla rs....................
Savings rate (percent).......................

S o u r c e : Historical data—Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected data—
Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Beginning in 1996, with consumers buoyed by a number of
factors, including the thriving job market, steady incomes, low
interest rates, low inflation, and increased wealth from rising asset
prices, spending accelerated to its fastest pace in more than a
decade. Consumption expenditures grew by 4.4 percent yearly
from 1996 to 2000. Mirroring the expansion in consumption, the
annual savings rate dropped sharply to 2.8 percent in 2000.
Beginning in late 2000 and continuing until mid-2003 (a
period including the 2001 recession and the war in Iraq),
consumer purchases of goods and services still managed to
remain at a rate of growth about 2.7 percent annually between
2000 and the second quarter of 2003. This divergent trend
suggests that the uncertainties associated with the war may
have put a dent in consumer spending, but only had a limited
impact on spending. Gains from Federal tax cuts and mortgage
refin an cin g probably rem ained key facto rs behind the
willingness of consumers to continue spending.
Over the next decade, consumer demand is projected to grow
at an average annual rate of 2.8 percent from 2002 to 2012, sliding
down from the historical high of 3.7 percent rate posted during
the preceding 10-year period. The 2.8 percent rate is in line with,
but less than the projected 3.0 percent growth for GDP over the

28

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

N ote:

-

Dash indicates data not computable.

same span. Real disposable income is projected to grow at a 2.6percent annual rate between 2002 and 2012,0.5 percentage point
lower than the rate for 1992-2002.
At a finer level of detail, consumer spending on durable goods,
especially for cars and light trucks, was most notable during the
past 3 years. Sales of autos roared to a peak of 17.2 million units
in 2000, as the value of sales incentives reached a new high and
buyers responded eagerly to the incentives. The long-term
outlook for motor vehicle sales will call for a slowdown in the rate
of increase relative to past performances, and the solid gain in
auto sales is expected to ease. Total light-vehicle sales are
anticipated to stay at 16.6 million units in 2012. Although the
number of vehicles per person has increased significantly in the
past 20 years, the U nited States m ight be approaching a
saturation point in the rate of vehicle ownership. Future growth
in vehicle sales will be primarily driven by growth in population
and demand for replacement vehicles. Demand for motor vehicles
and parts is projected to grow at a rate of 2.0 percent yearly
between 2002 and 2012, compared with 5.4 percent in the 19922002 period. (See table 4.)
Among consum er purchases of services, a m ajor con­
tributor to growth is health care expenditures. The growing

Table 4.

Personal consumption expenditures, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
Billions o f c h a in e d 1996 dollars

A v e r a g e a n n u a l ra te o f c h a n g e

C a te g o ry
1982

1992

2002

2012

19 82-9 2

1 9 9 2 -2 0 0 2

2 0 0 2 -1 2

Personal consumption expenditures.................

$3,275.5

$4,594.5

$6,576.0

$8,673.3

3.4

3.7

2.8

Durable goods..........................................................
Motor vehicles and p a rts.......................................
Other durable g o o d s..............................................

283.5
150.2
137.0

479.0
225.7
255.0

999.9
382.4
620.3

1,473.5
464.8
1,048.0

5.4
4.2
6.4

7.6
5.4
9.3

4.0
2.0
5.4

Nondurable goods....................................................

1,088.8

1,389.7

1,929.5

2,448.4

2.5

3.3

2.4

Services....................................................................
Housing services...................................................
Medical services....................................................
Other services.......................................................

1,918.3
555.3
518.6
845.6

2,729.7
719.3
765.4
1,245.6

3,675.6
880.1
978.6
1,816.9

4,841.3
1,097.3
1,314.7
2,427.2

3.6
2.6
4.0
4.0

3.0
2.0
2.5
3.8

2.8
2.2
3.0
2.9

Residual1...................................................................

-20.0

-6.3

-31.8

-127.1

-

-

-

' The residual is the difference between the first line and the sum of the
most detailed lines.
S o u r c e : Historical data— Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected

number of elderly in the population, as well as advances in medical
technology, has resulted in a greater demand for health services.
Spending on medical services increased 2.5 percent per year
during the 1992-2002 period. Over the coming 10 years, due to
the importance of the demographic factors, spending on medical
services is expected to continue to post solid gains at a growth
rate of 3.0 percent annually.

Gross private domestic (business) investment. This com­
ponent of g dp consists of business spending for equipment and
software,10purchases of nonresidential structures, purchases of
residential structures, and changes in business inventories. His­
torically, private business investment is one of the most volatile
Table 5.

data—Bureau of Labor Statistics.
N ote:

Dash indicates data not computable.

elements of final output, responding to the business cycle and
to shifting interest rates and inflation. During the recessions of
the 1980s and 1990s, business investment experienced a sharp
decline. Nevertheless, a strong economy boosted investment to
a historical high in 2000, making an average growth of 8.8 percent
per year since 1992, compared with a growth in investment of 3.9
percent between 1982 and 1992. (See table 5.)
However, during the 2000-02 period, nonresidential in­
vestment was one of the weakest segments of demand in part
because of over-investment in Internet gear and other in­
formation-technology equipment during the boom of the late
1990s. Spending on equipment and software, the largest category
of business investment, plummeted 8.0 percent between 2000

Gross private domestic investment, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
Billions of c h a in e d 1996 dollars

A v e r a g e a n n u a l ra te o f c h a n g e

C a te g o ry
1982

1992

2002

2012

19 82-9 2

1 9 9 2 -2 0 0 2

2 0 0 2 -1 2

Gross private domestic investment.................

$615.3

$899.8

$1,589.6

$2,728.1

3.9

5.9

5.5

Fixed nonresidential investment.............................
Equipment and software.......................................
Computers and software....................................
Other equipment................................................
Structures.............................................................
Fixed residential structures....................................
Single-family..........................................................
Multifamily.............................................................
O th e r......................................................................

474.3
259.1
11.5
296.1
237.3
158.1
62.0
22.1
72.3

630.6
437.5
74.7
369.2
197.3
257.2
135.7
14.2
107.0

1,183.4
971.1
419.7
593.0
226.4
388.2
200.5
26.3
161.4

2,233.5
2,067.8
1,633.6
933.1
269.6
480.1
245.0
27.4
208.4

2.9
5.4
20.6
2.2
-1.8
5.0
8.1
-4.3
4.0

6.5
8.3
18.8
4.9
1.4
4.2
4.0
6.3
4.2

6.6
7.9
14.6
4.6
1.8
2.1
2.0
.4
2.6

Change in business inventories..............................

-15.6

17.1

5.2

59.0

-

-11.3

27.6

Residual1...................................................................

-70.4

-15.5

-42.8

-647.9

-

-

-

1The residual is the difference between the first line and the sum of the
most detailed lines.
S o u r c e : Historical data-Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected data-


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Bureau of Labor Statistics.
N ote:

Dash indicates data not computable.

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

29

The U.S. Economy

and 2002. In contrast to the softness in nonresidential in­
vestment, residential investment grew briskly. Propelled by record
low mortgage rates and also by the continued growth in housing
demand, the housing market has been on a nearly unbroken
upward trend for the 3 years ending in 2002. Residential
construction rose 5.4 percent during the 1999-2002 period, while
housing starts reached a 16-year high of 1.71 million units in

2002.
As already noted, the recent data show that beginning in the
second half of 2003, the economy is showing signs of recovery,
but in addition, capital spending is turning up. Over the next
decade, with good profitability, technological innovation, and
solid demand growth, the projections indicate nonresidential
investment in equipment and software will grow at a robust rate
of 7.9 percent per year from 2002 to 2012. Purchases of non­
residential structures are expected to grow slightly faster than
the historical pace: 1.8 percent annually over the projection
period, compared with a lackluster investment of 1.4 percent
growth between 1992 and 2002.
Although interest rates clearly influence the short-term
timing o f hom e purchases, demographics are the primary
determinant of long-term housing activities. As the 35- to 44year-old population is estim ated to decline by 2012, tra­
ditionally thought of as the prime home-buying age group,
demand for fixed residential investment is projected to retreat
and settle down after its 2002 record high. A still healthy 2.1 percent average annual growth rate is projected over the 200212 period, while housing starts are expected to rise modestly
to 1.79 million units in 2012, from 1.71 million units in 2002. In
sum, business investment as a whole is expected to be a great

Table 6.

contributor to U.S. economic growth over the next decade, at
a rate of 5.5 percent per year for the 2002-12 period.

Exports and imports.

G lobalization and intern ational
competition have played an important role in U.S. economic
activity. During the 1990s, increasing exports drove GDP growth.
So did imports: The strong U.S. dollar and falling foreign
commodity prices in em erging m arkets helped keep the
N ation’s inflation low and combined with other factors to
trigger strong growth in consumer spending. However, in­
creased globalization has also brought new challenges to the
U.S. economy, including a widening of the trade deficit in
total goods and services. The trade deficit ballooned to a
record $423.6 billion in 2002 in nominal terms, or $488.5 billion
in real dollars, up from the 1992 figure of $27.8 billion in
nominal terms, or $ 19.8 billion in real dollars. In terms of growth
rate, while exports increased at a 7.5-percent annual rate from
1982 to 1992, imports grew 7.4 percent. Over the 1992-2002
period, exports posted a 5.0-percent rate of growth annually
and imports soared faster at 8.7 percent. (See table 6.)
In any long-term projection program, the international trade
sector is the most difficult to predict. The key to the Bureau’s 10year outlook for U.S. trade is the increase in global accessibility
and the rise in international competition. With the world assumed
to become more open to trade, the share of GDP accounted for by
both exports and imports is expected to grow apace. A continued
decline in the exchange rate will stimulate U.S. exports abroad
and increase international competitiveness. Real exports are
expected to grow at a 5.7-percent annual rate between 2002 and
2012. Both exports of goods and services also are expected to

Exports and imports of goods and services, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
A v e r a g e a n n u a l ra te of c h a n g e

Billions of c h a in e d 1996 dollars
C a te g o ry

2 0 0 2 -1 2

1982

1992

2002

2012

1 9 8 2 -9 2

1 9 9 2 -2 0 0 2

Exports of goods and services........................
Goods .......................................................................
Nonagricultural.......................................................
Agricultural............................................................
Services....................................................................

$314.6
214.6
190.0
49.8
100.5

$651.0
449.8
395.4
56.0
201.7

$1,058.8
756.9
688.5
68.8
301.5

$1,842.2
1,316.6
1,210.2
105.1
525.4

7.5
7.7
7.6
1.2
7.2

5.0
5.3
5.7
2.1
4.1

Residual1..................................................................

-25.6

-2.2

.1

1.6

-

-

-

Imports of goods and services.........................
Goods .......................................................................
Nonpetroleum........................................................
Petroleum...............................................................
Services....................................................................

329.2
257.9
211.5
38.8
73.1

670.8
543.7
487.4
58.6
128.0

1,547.4
1,320.1
1,229.8
86.7
227.2

2,576.8
2,272.7
2,141.7
128.2
323.1

7.4
7.7
8.7
4.2
5.8

8.7
9.3
9.7
4.0
5.9

5.2
5.6
5.7
4.0
3.6

5.7
5.7
5.8
4.3
5.7

Residual2 ..................................................................

5.8

-3.2

3.7

-16.3

-

-

-

Trade surplus/deficit................................................

-14.6

-19.8

-488.5

-734.6

3.1

37.8

4.2

1The residual following the detail categories for exports is the difference
between the aggregate of “exports of goods and services” and the sum of the
figures those separate categories for exports of goods and services.
2The residual following the detail categories for “imports is the difference
between the aggregate of ‘imports of goods and services,” and the sum of the

30

Monthly Labor Review


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

figures those separate categories for imports of goods and services.
N ote:

Dash indicates data not computable.

Historical data-Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected dataBureau of Labor Statistics.
S ource:

grow at the same rate of 5.7 percent annually per year during the
projection period.
Imports are projected to grow at a rate of 5.2 percent annually
over the 2002-12 projection period, much lower than the 8.7
percent annual rate of growth for imports over the 1992-2002
span. Imports of goods are expected to grow at 5.6 percent per
year, and a 3.6-percent annual rate of growth is projected for
imports of services during the 2002-12 period. As a result, net
exports (exports minus imports) are projected to continue to make
a negative contribution to the aggregate demand, reaching $734.6
billion in real terms by 2012. Although the Bureau projects a
continued increase in the trade surplus in services, the surplus
in services still cannot offset the even larger deficit in goods.
The most troubling question, which arises from the foreign
trade projections, is how long can the flow of funds out of the
United States, to pay for high imports, continue until financial
markets begin to feel the pinch? Clearly, increasing interest rates
over the period will help slow domestic demands on financial
markets, and the sustained Federal budget deficit will also help
offset financial outflows to foreigners. Nonetheless, the share of
nominal gdp accounted for by the current account deficit jumped
sharply between 1999 and 2002, moving from a more traditional
2-percent share to a 5-percent share, in absolute terms.
Owing to steady pressure from the current account deficit,
the dollar is projected to depreciate throughout the entire forecast
period. However, the current account deficit will continue to
grow, reaching just more than 7 percent of nominal gdp by 2012.
With such a burden, presumably the U.S. current account deficit
can be financed by large inflows of private capital, as investors
find U.S. assets to be some of the most attractive in the world. In
one sense, the widening deficit is a product of the desire of
foreign investors to get in on the action in the U.S. economy.
Nevertheless, the United States will have to face the risks that
the stock of U.S. indebtedness to the rest of world will grow even
more rapidly, and net factor payments from the United States to
the rest will also increase rapidly.

Federal Government.

During most of the 1980s and the
1990s, the Federal Government faced a large deficit. The
question of how to reduce that deficit was a centerpiece of
discussion among economists and policymakers for more
than 20 years. In nominal terms, the deficit grew from $132.6
billion in 1982 and peaked at $297.6 billion in 1992. Between
1993 and 1997, the deficit grew steadily smaller. After 28 years
of deficits, in 1998, the budget recorded a substantial surplus
of $43.8 billion as a result of a strong bipartisan effort to
control spending by the Federal Government. The surplus
increased further during the 1999-2001 period, from $111.9
billion in 1999 up to $206.9 billion in 2000, but declined to
$71.9 billion in 2001 as growth began to cool and the tax cuts
of 2001 began to enact. The surplus accounted for 2.1 percent
of nominal GDP in 2000, its largest share of GDP during the


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past four decades. This dramatic change is attributable to an
increase in tax receipts from an expanding economy, on the
one hand, and a decline in expenditures due to the Balanced
Budget Act of 1996, on the other.
However, since late 2001, as noted earlier, Federal defense
spending has increased sharply in response to the terrorist
attacks of September 11 and to military operations in Afghanistan
and Iraq. On the revenues side, falling receipts from individual
and corporate incom e taxes due to the recent econom ic
slowdown as well as the result of tax policy, accounted for
almost all the decline in total receipts over the 2000-02 period.
In 2002, total receipts were 17.9 percent o f g d p , dow n
substantially from the post-World War II peak of 20.7 percent
reached in 2000. The acceleration of defense spending and
the reduction of Federal revenues have pushed the Federal
budget to a deficit of $202 billion in 2002 and an estimated
deficit of $400 billion in 2003.11
The macroeconomic model assumes that Federal budget
deficits will remain through the projection period, reaching
$164.1 billion by 2012, or accounting for 0.9 percent of g d p .
The projections also anticipate shifts in the composition of
Federal expenditures over the 2002-12 period. Transfer
paym ents (prim arily M edicare and Social Security) are
projected to account for a 43.9-percent share of Federal
expenditures by 2012, declining from 44.9 percent in 2002.
Despite this deceleration, Medicare service will make up an
increasingly larger proportion of Federal expenditures. Within
the next 10 years, the large baby-boom generation will begin
to reach retirement age and become eligible to receive Medicare
benefits. In addition, advances in medical technology will
probably keep pushing up the costs of providing health care.
Underlying the demographic changes anticipated for the next
decade, spending for Medicare and Social Security together
will account for a 35.3-percent share of Federal expenditures
by 2012, up rather substantially from 29.2 percent in 1992 and
33.7 percent in 2002. Similarly, the share of grants-in-aid
(primarily Medicaid) is projected to increase to 15.8 percent,
rising from 10.5 percent in 1992 and 14.7 percent in 2002. (See
table 7.)
Real defense spending (which includes expenditures for
m ilitary com pensation, defense capital goods, and gross
investm ent in equipm ent and in stru c tu re s12) declined
absolutely over the 1988-98 p eriod, as the m ilita ry ’s
compensation was reduced and purchases of weapons were
postponed. Cuts also entailed retiring some older equipment
without replacing it. In 1999, however, real spending on
defense reversed its 10-year trend and started to rise slightly,
due mainly to increases in consumption of capital goods and
investment in equipment and software. After the September
11 terrorist attacks, defense spending has expanded in
response to the perceived threat of terrorism and homeland
security protection. Clearly, the surge in military spending is

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

31

The U.S, Economy

Table 7.

Federal Government receipts and expenditures, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
A v e ra g e an n u a l
ra te of c h a n g e

P ercen t distribution

Billions of cu rren t dollars
C a te g o ry
1982

2012

1982

1992

2002

2012

$1,121.3 $1,873.3
479.4
845.8
179.8
118.8
81.3
110.6
737.1
441.8

$3,429.0
1,412.5
477.4
170.9
1,368.2

100.0
49.3
8.2
8.3
34.2

100.0
42.8
10.6
7.3
39.4

100.0
45.1
9.6
5.9
39.3

100.0
41.2
13.9
5.0
39.9

1992

2002

1 9 8 2 -9 2

1 9 9 2 -2 0 0 2

2 0 0 2 -1 2

6.5
5.0
9.2
5.0
8.0

5.3
5.8
4.2
3.1
5.3

6.2
5.3
10.3
4.4
6.4

Receipts.............................................
Personal tax and nontax receipts...
Corporate profits ta x .......................
Indirect business ta x .....................
Contributions for social insurance ..

$599.5
295.7
49.1
49.9
204.9

Expenditures......................................
Defense consumption.....................
Nondefense consumption...............
Transfer payments...........................
To persons....................................
Unemployment...........................
Social Security..........................
Medicare....................................
O ther.........................................
To foreigners.................................
Grants-in-aid to State and local
governments................................
Net interest p aid..............................
Subsidies less current surplus......
Less wage accruals........................

732.1
193.6
71.7
287.3
281.1
25.2
153.7
50.8
51.4
6.2

1,418.9
317.0
128.8
565.2
549.0
38.9
281.8
132.2
96.2
16.2

2,075.4
386.7
199.9
931.8
917.4
62.8
446.8
252.9
154.7
14.4

3,593.1
631.4
299.0
1,575.9
1,564.4
51.8
742.9
526.2
243.6
11.5

100.0
26.4
9.8
39.2
38.4
3.4
21.0
6.9
7.0
.8

100.0
22.3
9.1
39.8
38.7
2.7
19.9
9.3
6.8
1.1

100.0
18.6
9.6
44.9
44.2
3.0
21.5
12.2
7.5
.7

100.0
17.6
8.3
43.9
43.5
1.4
20.7
14.6
6.8
.3

6.8
5.1
6.0
7.0
6.9
4.4
6.2
10.0
6.5
10.2

3.9
2.0
4.5
5.1
5.3
4.9
4.7
6.7
4.9
-1.2

5.6
5.0
4.1
5.4
5.5
-1.9
5.2
7.6
4.6
-2.2

69.5
93.9
16.1
.0

149.1
229.1
28.3
.0

305.7
207.8
44.6
.0

568.8
472.3
45.4
.0

9.5
12.8
2.2
.0

10.5
16.2
2.0
.0

14.7
10.0
2.1
.0

15.8
13.1
1.3
.0

7.9
9.3
5.8
-

7.4
-1.0
4.7
-

6.4
8.6
.2
-

Surplus/deficit....................................
Surplus/deficit as percentage
of gross domestic product.............

-132.6

-297.6

-202.1

-164.1

-

-

-

-

“

—

—

—

^ .1

-4.7

-1.9

Historical data—Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected data—
Bureau of Labor Statistics.______________________________
S ource:

driven by the high costs o f war w ith Iraq and post-w ar
reconstruction. On the basis of Defense Department estimates,
b ls has assumed that military force levels will remain fixed at
1.5 m illion troops through the projection period. The budget
provides funds for programs that sustain high quality people
and forces.13As a result, real defense spending is projected to
grow at an average annual rate of 2.5 percent from 2002 to
2012, reaching $510.2 billion in the latter year. (See table 8.)
Real nondefense spending for government, which accounts
for the spending on salaries o f Government employees and
on a d m in istrativ e expen ses o f all F ed eral n ondefense
program s, is assumed to increase at a slower pace of 1.1
percent per year between 2002 and 2012, compared with its 1.8
percent annual rate of growth between 1992 and 2002. (See
table 8.) This assumption leads to a projected nominal growth,
averaging 4.1 percent per year for all nondefense spending
between 2002 and 2012, below the 4.5-percent annual growth
from 1992 to 2002. (See table 7.)

State and local governments.

Real spending by State and
local governm ents is p rojected to increase 1.4 percent
annually from 2002 to 2012— much lower than the 3.0-percent
rate o f growth posted for the 1992-2002 period. (See table 8.)
In nominal term s, State and local governm ent receipts of
grants-in-aid from the Federal Government for Medicaid and
other program s assum e to reveal the same trend toward

32

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

-.9

~
N ote:

—

—

“

Dash indicates data not computable.

increased levels, representing 24.9 percent of State and local
revenues in 2012, up from 19.3 percent in 1992 percent and
23.4 percent in 2002. (See table 9.) This translates to an average
annual rate of growth of 6.4 percent from 2002 to 2012, well
above the growth for most of other categories of revenues
during the same period. Still, the 6.4 percent figure represents
a decline from the category’s 7.4 percent annual rate of growth
over the 1992-2002 period.
On the expenditures side, consumption expenditures are
expected to continue to account for the largest component of
total State and local spending in 2012, but their share of total
spending is projected to decline from 77.4 percent in 1992,
76.3 percent in 2002, and to 69.8 percent in 2012. In contrast,
an increased level of transfer payments, due to the increases
in Medicaid services and retirement pensions, is expected to
keep the share of transfer payments rising, from 23.2 percent
in 1992 and 24.7 percent in 2002 to 31.1 percent in 2012. In
sum , S tate and lo cal gov ern m en ts w ill run surp lu ses
throughout most of the projection period; statutorily, nearly
every State is required to do so, as their expenditures are tied
closely to their available revenues.

In c o m e
From 1992 to 2002, the portion of labor income in total personal
income declined slightly. However, wage and salary dis-

bursements in the private sector, the largest segment of labor
income, increased noticeably as a share of total personal income,
from 55.3 percent in 1992 to 56.0 percent in 2002. The projections
anticipate that this increasing trend in wages and salaries will
continue through the projection period, reaching 57.3 percent
in 2012. (See table 3.)
Over the same period, another major component of per­
sonal income, business-related personal income, including
proprietors’ income, personal dividends, interest income, and
rental income, increased moderately from a 26.6-percent share
in 1992 to 27.0 percent in 2002. However, this type of income
is projected to fall to a 24.4-percent share in 2012. Substituting
the decline in importance of business-related personal income,
transfer payments have become an increasingly substantial
source of personal income over the past decade. Between
1992 and 2002, transfer payments rose as a share o f personal
income from 13.9 percent to 14.4 percent. The Bureau projects
this category will continue to rise until it accounts for 15.6
percent in 2012, reflecting both rising per-capita medical costs
and an increase in the older population, the most likely users
of M edicare programs. In short, the share of labor income in
total personal income is expected to increase substantially,
from 62.8 percent in 2002 to 64.8 percent in 2012.
T ra d itio n a lly , p e rso n a l c o n su m p tio n is th e larg est
component indicating how people spend their incomes, and

Table 8.

its share of income expenditures has increased over time. The
projections anticipate that the historical trend will continue
and the share will rise to 82.9 percent of personal income in
2012, up from 78.1 percent in 1992 and 81.9 percent in 2002.
However, the trend of increased consumption is projected to
result in a very low personal savings level in 2012.
Nevertheless, on a per capita basis, nominal disposable
income is projected to increase at an average annual rate of 4.3
percent from 2002 to 2012, reaching a level of $41,459 in the latter
year, a gain of more than $14,200 over the projection span. In real
terms— that is, chained 1996 dollars— per capita income is
projected to grow 1.7 percent per year from 2002 to 2012.
Accordingly, real standard of living would rise over the projection
period, at least measured on the basis of growth of disposable
personal income.

E m p lo y m e n t
After the 1990-91 recession, there followed 9 years of economic
expansion, resulting in year-to-year decreases in unemployment
and increases in employment; both of which occurred through
the rest of that decade. Unemployment fell for 8 straight years,
from 7.5 percent in 1992 to 4.0 percent in 2000, the lowest reading
irf 30 years. That trend expanded employment by 16.7 million
people over the period. Conversely, even 2 years after the mild

Government consumption expenditures and gross investment, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
A v e r a g e a n n u a l ra te of c h a n g e

Billions of c h a in e d 1996 dollars
C a te g o ry
1982

1992

2002

2012

1 9 8 2 -9 2

Government consumption expenditures
and gross investment...............................
Federal Government consumption and investment.
Defense consumption and investment...............
Compensation, civilian......................................
Compensation, m ilitary.....................................
Consumption of fixed capital............................
Other consumption...........................................
Gross investment.............................................
Nondefense consumption and investment..........
Compensation...................................................
Consumption of fixed capital............................
Commodity credit corporation inventory change.
Other consumption...........................................
Gross investment.............................................

$1,046.0
463.2
333.6
61.5
104.6
39.3
101.0
38.2
129.8
75.7
7.8
1.8
36.9
14.8

$1,410.0
595.1
417.1
59.9
102.2
63.8
124.8
66.4
177.9
84.5
14.6
-1.3
52.4
28.0

$1,712.8
613.3
400.0
39.9
83.7
62.6
152.1
63.3
213.3
80.7
30.1
-.1
58.3
45.9

$2,014.6
748.2
510.2
40.8
81.9
74.4
225.5
99.5
238.7
84.1
44.7
.0
60.4
54.1

3.0
2.5
2.3
-.3
-.2
5.0
2.1
5.7
3.2
1.1
6.5

State and local government consumption and
investment............................................................
Compensation...................................................
Consumption of fixed capital............................
Other consumption...........................................
Gross investment.............................................

584.6
434.8
39.2
44.0
86.1

815.3
516.5
57.6
94.0
147.4

1,099.7
601.7
92.6
191.1
218.6

Residual'...................................................................

-39.7

-1.0

-7.7

1 9 9 2 -2 0 0 2

2 0 0 2 -1 2

1.6
2.0
2.5
.2
-.2
1.7
4.0
4.6
1.1
.4
4.1

3.6
6.6

2.0
.3
-.4
-4.0
-2.0
-.2
2.0
-.5
1.8
-.5
7.5
-23.5
1.1
5.0

1,267.2
661.3
125.0
252.4
245.5

3.4
1.7
3.9
7.9
5.5

3.0
1.5
4.9
7.3
4.0

1.4
.9
3.0
2.8
1.2

-35.1

-

-

-

-

-

.3
1.7

1The residual is the difference between the first line and the sum of the
S o u r c e : Historical data-Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected datamost detailed lines.
Bureau of Labor Statistics.
N ote:
Dash indicates data not computable._______________________________________________________________________________________


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Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

33

The U.S. Economy

State and local government receipts and expenditures, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012

Table 9.

A v e ra g e an n u a l
ra te o f c h a n g e

P ercen t distribution

Billions of cu rren t dollars
C a te g o ry
1982

1982

1992

2002

2012

1 9 8 2 -9 2

1 9 9 2 -2 0 0 2

$772.2 $1,304.4
156.4
266.1
24.4
33.5
429.2
689.8
182.8
267.8
246.4
422.0
9.4
13.1
305.7
149.1

$2,288.9
487.3
76.0
1,142.3
463.0
679.3
14.5
568.8

100.0
18.3
3.9
57.4
23.7
33.7
1.1
19.3

100.0
20.2
3.2
55.6
23.7
31.9
1.7
19.3

100.0
20.4
2.6
52.9
20.5
32.3
.7
23.4

100.0
21.3
3.3
49.9
20.2
29.7
.6
24.9

7.9
9.0
5.7
7.6
7.9
7.3
12.5
7.9

5.4
5.5
3.2
4.9
3.9
5.5
-3.3
7.4

5.8
6.2
8.5
5.2
5.6
4.9
4.4
6.4
5.2
4.3
4.5
5.4
2.8
7.6
8.6
3.5
3.2
5.7
3.9
-

2002

Receipts.............................................
Personal taxes...............................
Corporate profits taxes.................
Indirect business ta xe s................
Property taxes............................
O ther...........................................
Contributions for social insurance ...
Federal grants-in-aid.....................

$360.3
66.0
14.1
206.8
85.3
121.5
4.1
69.5

Expenditures......................................
Consumption...................................
Compensation.............................
Consumption of fixed capital.....
O ther...........................................
Transfer payments to persons......
Medicaid......................................
O ther...........................................
Net interest paid.............................
Less dividends received...............
Subsidies less current surplus.....
Less wage accruals.......................

362.5
306.8
225.9
30.4
50.5
61.2
32.1
29.1
-7.3
-.2
2.0
.0

777.2
601.7
456.3
53.5
91.8
180.1
121.8
58.3
2.8
-.2
-7.2
.0

1,356.4
1,034.5
733.8
99.9
200.8
335.6
263.5
72.0
-2.0
-.5
-11.2
.0

2,255.7
1,575.0
1,141.8
169.8
263.4
700.6
599.1
101.5
-2.7
-.8
-16.4
.0

100.0
84.6
62.3
8.4
13.9
16.9
8.8
8.0
-2.0
.0
.6
.0

100.0
77.4
58.7
6.9
11.8
23.2
15.7
7.5
.4
.0
-.9
.0

100.0
76.3
54.1
7.4
14.8
24.7
19.4
5.3
-.1
.0
-.8
.0

100.0
69.8
50.6
7.5
11.7
31.1
26.6
4.5
-.1
.0
-.7
.0

7.9
7.0
7.3
5.8
6.2
11.4
14.3
7.2
1.3
-

5.7
5.6
4.9
6.5
8.1
6.4
8.0
2.1
9.0
4.5
-

State and local deficit/surplus.........

-2.3

-4.9

-52.0

33.2

-

-

-

-

8.1

26.5

N ote:

Dash indicates data not computable.

S ource:

—

Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Historical data— Bureau of Economic Analysis; projected data—

2001 recession, job growth showed very slow progress. However,
the continued recovery in output and continued strong demand
is expected to catch up with the robust growth in productivity
and lead to sustained job growth. Under the assumption of
long-term economic stability, the b ls model assumes a return
to more normal levels of job creation in the future. In 2012, a
5.2-percent unemployment rate is projected. (See table 10.)
Overall, civilian household em ploym ent is projected to
increase by 1.2 percent per year from 2002 to 2012. The result is
that about 17.3 m illion employed persons will be added to the
economy over the 10-year projection period. Total employment
measured on a nonfarm establishment basis is projected to
grow at a rate of 1.6 percent between 2002 to 2012, from 130.4
million to 152.1 million, an increase of 21.7 million jobs.14
The civilian labor force is projected to grow at a rate of 1.1
percent per year from 2002 to 2012; the same as that attained
over the preceding 10-year period. This translates into an
increase of 17.4 million over the projection span. The Census
Bureau projects that the total U.S. population will increase at a
0.9-percent rate of growth annually over the 2002-12 period;
the same rate of increase as that between 1992 and 2002. The
Census Bureau also estimates that the population aged 16 and
older will increase at a rate of 1.1 percent over the projection span;
0.1 percentage point higher than the rate of growth in the earlier
period.15

34

2 0 0 2 -1 2

2012

1992

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P roductivity
Productivity, measured as output per hour in the private
nonfarm business sector, has dem onstrated very strong
gains since 1995. As mentioned earlier, even during the past
3 years of economic weakness (a period that included a
recession and a recovery), labor productivity grew at an
annual average rate of more than 3 percent between 2000 and
2002; somewhat higher than the annual rate of 2.5 percent
from 1995 to 2000 and much higher than the 1.4 percent trend
from 1973 to 1995. This growth, moreover, has occurred,
despite a deep decline in nonresidential investment spending
since 2001.16In fact, economic data suggest that almost none
of the acceleration in productivity after 1995 is due to
adjustments for responses to the business cycle experienced
in the historical period of 1973-95.
How is one to interpret this truly extraordinary performance
since 1995? Cyclical forces probably played some role, but
efficiency gains likely were facilitated by the best use of
important new technologies. Adjusting to new technologies
takes time, and it is plausible that the adjustment process
has continued to boost productivity growth in recent years.
More fundamentally, the trend in productivity growth has
ratcheted up, and this developm ent has been the driving
force behind the recent exceptionally high rate of grow th.17

Table 10.

Labor supply and factors affecting productivity, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
Levels

A v e ra g e an n u a l rate of c h a n g e
2002

C a te g o ry
1982

1992

1990
census
weights

2000
Census
weights

2012

19 82-9 2

Labor supply (in millions, unless noted):
Total population................................................
Population aged 16 and older.......................
Civilian labor force........................................
Civilian household employment...................
Nonfarm payroll employment.......................
Unemployment rate (percent)..........................

231.9
172.3
110.2
99.5
89.7
9.7

255.4
192.8
128.1
118.5
108.7
7.5

280.6
214.0
142.5
134.3
130.4
5.8

287.5
218.0
144.9
136.5
130.4
5.8

314.8
242.0
162.3
153.8
152.1
5.2

1.0
1.1
1.5
1.8
1.9
-2.6

.9
1.0
1.1
1.3
1.8
-2.6

.9
1.1
1.1
1.2
1.6
-1.0

Productivity:
Private nonfarm business output per hour
(billions of chained 1996 dollars).................

26.3

31.9

39.1

39.1

47.9

2.0

2.0

2.1

S ource:

1992-2002

2 0 0 2 -1 2

Historical data— Bureau of Economic Analysis, Census Bureau, and Bureau of Labor Statistics; projected data—Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Over the next 10 years, it is uncertain whether the structural
productivity growth that emerged in the past will continue or
if the late 1990’s dramatic productivity surge will be repeated,
but some high levels of productivity are foreseen. Over time,
the faster productivity growth will mean a higher standard of
living, with m ost of the productivity gain eventually taking
the form of higher real wages. The Bureau anticipates that

productivity will grow at a rate of 2.1 percent per year over the
2002-12 period, virtually the same as that recorded between
1992 and 2002. This expected solid productivity growth in the
aggregate economic projections is consistent with the strong
growth of capital stocks, resulting from the projected rates of
business investm ent, especially in efficiency-enhancing
equipment and computer software.18
□

Notes
1 In this article, discussions of g d p and its final demand components
are couched in terms of real values unless otherwise noted. Real g d p
and its components are stated in 1996 chain-weighted dollars. Chain
weighting replaces the past practice of computing those indicators by
reference to fixed base-year prices with an averaging technique. The
chain-weighted methodology calculates the prices of goods and services in
order to use weights that are appropriate for the specific periods or years
being measured. As a result, for a particular year, the most detailed g d p
components do not add up to their chain-weighted aggregates, and the
chain-weighted aggregates do not add up to the chain-weighted real g d p
For more details, see J. Steven Landefeld, Brent R. Moulton, and Cindy M.
Vojtech, “Chained-Dollar Indexes, Issues, Tips on Their Use, and Upcoming
Changes,” Survey of Current Business, November 2003, pp. 8-16. It
should be noted that in the Bureau of Economic Analysis’ latest released
comprehensive revision of National Income and Product Accounts ( n i p a ’s ),
the reference year has been changed from 1996 to 2000 for the chain weighted-dollar estimates. All data presented in this article are still measured
on a chained-1996 dollars basis because the b l s projections presented in
this issue were completed prior to the n i p a revision.
2 For the first time, the macroeconomic model developed by the
Macroeconomic Advisers, l l c forecasting group, is used to prepare the
2 0 0 2 -1 2 aggregate econom ic projections. The M acroeconom ic
Advisers firm developed and supports the Washington University
Macro Model, which the M acroeconomic Advisers team uses as a
central analytical tool for the short-term and long-term forecasts of
the U.S. economy. The macro model is a quarterly econometric system
o f 609 variables— 440 equations and 169 exogenous variables. It


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operates and simulates on a Windows-based software program called
W U M M S IM .

3 The Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau o f
Economic Research, determined in July 2003 that the 2001 recession
began in March 2001 and ended in November 2001. This 8-month
recession is slightly shorter than the average duration of recessions of
11 months since World War II.
4 The Federal Reserve cut the funds rate 11 times during the year
2001, from 6.50 percent to 1.75 percent. It then held the rates steady
through most of 2002, until a half-percentage-point cut in November.
A further reduction occurred in June 2003 that lowered the funds rate
by another 25 basis point to 1.00 percent, the lowest rate since 1958.
5 The tax provisions o f the “Economic Growth and Tax R elief
Reconciliation Act of 2001” came just after the economy had entered
into the 2001 recession. It lowered marginal tax rates for all taxpayers.
Its immediate tax relief in the summer and the fall of 2001 boosted
consumer demand and helped to ensure the recession was short and
shallow. The major tax provisions w ill expire in 2010. The tax
provisions of the “Job Creation and Worker Assistance Act of 2002”
provided incentives for business investm ent to jump-start the
recovery, along with extended unemployment benefits for individuals
who remain unemployed as a result of the 2001 recession. The tax
provisions of the “Jobs and Growth Tax Relief Reconciliation Act of
2003,” enacted as an extended plan to speed up the 2001 tax cuts,
strengthen the economic recovery, and accelerate job creation from
its current slow pace. The Macroeconomic Advisers model, assumes

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

35

The U,S. Economy

that nearly all o f the provisions o f the Jobs and Growth Tax Relief
Reconciliation Act and the Economic Growth and Tax R elief Re­
conciliation Act are permanent.
6 The Department o f Defense spending and force-level estimates
through the year 2009 are published in National Defense Budget
Estimates For FY 2004 (Office of the Under Secretary o f Defense
(Comptroller), March 2003). For a brief description o f the budget,
see, “Fiscal 2004 Department of Defense Budget Release,” No. 04403 (Department o f Defense, February 03, 2003).
7 Each year, the Energy Information Adm inistration o f the
Department of Energy publishes a range of estimates regarding energy
supply and demand over the coming 20 years. The Bureau’s energy
assumptions for nominal world oil prices are based on the Department
of Energy results. See “Annual Outlook 2003 with Projections to 2025”
(U .S. Department o f Energy, Energy Information Administration,
January 2003). The real imported oil prices are derived from their
nominal prices, deflated by the g d p chain-weighted deflators.
8 For a further discussion o f labor force projections, see Mitra
Toossi’s article in this issue, pp. 37-57.
9 In November 2003, the Department of Commerce reported that
the economy grew at a robust 8.2-percent annual rate in the third
quarter o f 2003 as a result of strong increases in consumer spending,
business investment, housing construction, and exports. It was the
highest growth rate since the first quarter o f 1984, but job creation
continued to lag.
10 In December 1999, The National Income and Product Accounts
recognized business expenditures for computer software as investment.
Previously, only software embedded in equipment by the producer of
that equipment was counted as investment. Business purchases for
own-account production (that is, software produced by a business for
its own use) were classified as inputs to production. For further reading
and information, see “A Preview of the 1999 Comprehensive Revision
o f the N ational Income and Product Accounts: D efinitional and
Classificational Changes,” Survey of Current Business, August 1999,
pp. 7 -2 0 , and “Improved Estim ates o f the National Income and
Product A ccounts for 1 9 5 9 -9 8 , Results o f the Comprehensive
Revision,” Survey of Current Business, December 1999, pp. 19-37.
11 The Congressional Budget Office closed its books in the fiscal
year 2003 that ended September 30. The deficit for fiscal 2003 was
$374 billion; $27 billion less than the c b o forecast in August 2003. In
this article, the budget surplus or deficit is measured in calendar year
and on the National Income and Product Accounts basis.
12 In January 1996, The National Income and Product Accounts
recognized government expenditures on equipment and structures as
investment. Accordingly, government purchases are now divided into
consumption expenditures and gross investment. This approach treats
government purchases of fixed assets in a manner more symmetric to
the treatment of such assets in the private sector. For more details, see
“Preview o f the Comprehensive Revision of the National Income and
Product Accounts: R ecognition o f Government Investment and
Incorporation o f a New Methodology for Calculating Depreciation,”
Survey of Current Business, September 1995, pp. 33-41. In December

36

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February 2004

1999, The National Income and Product Accounts reclassified
government purchases of own-account production o f software (that is,
software produced by a government agency for its own use) from
government consumption expenditures to gross government investment.
This shift has no effect on g d p . (See footnote 1 0 for further readings.)
13 In November 2003, the U.S. Congress approved an $87.5 billion
spending package for U.S. military operations and aid in Iraq and
Afghanistan. It is the second major special funding bill for Iraq and for
combating terror that President Bush has requested and Congress has
produced in less than 7 months. In April 2003, a $78.5 billion package was
enacted that included $62.4 billion for war costs and $7.5 billion for Iraqi
relief and reconstruction. Also see footnote 6 for a discussion of defense
spending and military force-level estimates.
14 Employment on a household basis, the concept of employment used
in the aggregate economic projections discussed in this article, is a count
of persons who are working or actively seeking work. The historical
estimates for household employment are derived from the Current
Population Survey, a survey carried out for the Bureau of Labor Statistics
by the U.S. Bureau of the Census. The concept of employment on an
industry level of detail, discussed elsewhere in this issue of the Review, is a
count of jobs and is based on an establishment-level survey called the
Current Employment Statistics survey. Since 1994, these two measures
have diverged sharply. For an explanation o f the increase in this
employment gap, see Thomas Nardone, Mary Bowler, Jurgen Kropf,
Katie Kirkland, and Signe Wetrogan, “Examining the Discrepancy in
Employment Growth between the c p s and the c e s ,” a paper prepared for
the presentation to the Federal Econom ic Statistics A dvisory
Committee on October 17, 2003.
15 Population and labor force estimates from 2000 reflect the results
of Census 2000 adjustments. The new weighting procedures resulted in
the higher population estimates and higher civilian labor force figures
due to a major réévaluation o f the international migration estimate.
Data from 2000 are not strictly comparable with prior years because
the revisions did not weighted back to the previous years. For this
reason, data before 2000 are still on the 1990-based estimates. For a
further discussion of population and labor force projections, see Mitra
Toossi’s article in this issue, pp. 37-57.
16 Productivity, measured as output per hour in the private nonfarm
business sector, increased by 5.4 percent annually from 2001 to 2002.
In 2003, productivity growth registered 7.0 percent in the second
quarter and 9.4 percent in the third quarter, the best performance in
20 years.
17 See “Productivity Growth: A Realistic Assessment,” remarks by Vice
Chairman Roger W. Ferguson, Jr. (The Federal Reserve Board, at the
Stockton Lectures 2002, London Business School, London, U.K., Oct.
24, 2002); and “Recent Experience and Economic Outlook,” remarks by
Vice Chairman Roger W. Ferguson, Jr. (The Federal Reserve Board, at the
2003 Global Economic and Investment Outlook Conference, Carnegie
Mellon University, Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania, Nov. 12, 2002).
18 For a further, detailed discussion o f labor productivity and
employment, see Jay M. Berman’s article on industry output and
employment in this issue, pp. 58-79.

Labor Force Projections

Employment outlook: 2002-12

Labor force projections to 2012:
the graying of the U.S. w orkforce
The labor force will continue to age , with the annual
growth rate of the 55-years-and-older group
projected to be nearly 4 times that of the overall
labor force; as the participation rates of older
age groups increase, the older population's share
o f the workforce will rise
M itra Toossi

Mltra Toossi Is an
economist in the
Office of Occupa­
tional Statistics and
Employment
Projections, Bureau of
Labor Statistics. E-mail:
Toossi_M@bls.gov


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| his article examines projected trends in
the labor force over the 2002-12 period.
By 2012, the number of persons working
or looking for work is expected to reach 162.3
million. The labor force is anticipated to exhibit
steady growth and increase by 17.4 million, or
12 percent, over the 2002 figure. The growth in
the labor force during 2002-12 is projected to be
larger than in the previous 10-year period, 19922002, when the labor force grew by 14.4 million,
or 11.3 percent.
The annual rate of growth in the wom en’s
labor force is expected to remain the same as it
was during the 1992-2002 period, namely, 1.3
percent, but it will still increase at a faster rate
than that of men. (See table 1.) The m en’s labor
force is expected to grow at an annual rate of 1.0
percent, more rapidly than the growth rate in the
1992-2002 period, even though the aggregate
labor force participation rate for men is projected
to continue to decline. W omen’s share of the
labor force is expected to increase from 46.5 per­
cent in 2002 to 47.5 percent in 2012. By contrast,
m en’s share is projected to decline from 53.5
percent in 2002 to 52.5 percent in 2012.
The projected labor force growth will be af­
fected by the aging of the baby-boom genera­
tion— persons born between 1946 and 1964. In
2012, the baby-boom cohort will be 48 to 66
years. This age group is expected to show sig-

T

nificant growth over the 2002-12 period. The
labor force will continue to age, with the an­
nual growth rate of the 55-and-older group
projected to be 4.1 percent, nearly 4 times the
rate of growth of the overall labor force. It is
anticipated that, in 2012, youths will consti­
tute 15 percent of the labor force, and primeage workers— those between the ages of 25
and 54— will make up about 66 percent of the
labor force. The share of the 55-and-older age
group will increase from 14.3 percent to 19.1
percent of the labor force.
As a result of divergent rates of population
growth in the past, racial and Hispanic-origin
groups are projected to continue to show widely
varied rates of growth. By 2012, due to faster
population growth resulting from a younger
population, higher fertility rates, and increased
immigration levels, the Hispanic labor force is
expected to reach 23.8 million. Despite slowerthan-average growth, white non-H ispanics
will continue to make up about 66 percent of
the labor force.
Every 2 years, the Bureau of Labor Statis­
tics produces medium-term, or 10-year, labor
force projections. The present set of projec­
tions covers the 2002-12 period and estimates
the future size and composition of the labor
force.1The labor force projections are used as
input in projecting the industrial and occuMonthly Labor Review

February 2004 37

Labor Force Projections

Table 1.

Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands]

P e rc e n t c h a n g e

Change

Level

2002
G rou p
1982

1992

1990
census
weights

2000
census
weights

2012

1982-92

1992-2002

2 0 0 2 -1 2

1 9 82-9 2

19 92-2002

2 0 0 2 -1 2

Total, 16 years
and o ld e r..............
16 to 2 4 ..............
25 to 5 4 ..............
55 and older.......

110,204
24,606
70,506
15,092

128,105
21,616
91,429
15,060

142,534
22,425
99,865
20,244

144,863
22,366
101,720
20,777

162,269
24,377
106,866
31,026

17,901
-2,990
20,923
-32

14,429
809
8,436
5,184

17,406
2,011
5,146
10,249

16.2
-12.2
29.7
-.2

11.3
3.7
9.2
34.4

12.0
9.0
5.1
49.3

Men .........................
Women ...................

62,450
47,754

69,964
58,141

76,052
66,481

77,500
67,363

85,252
77,017

7,514
10,387

6,088
8,340

7,751
9,654

12.0
21.8

8.7
14.3

10.0
14.3

One race:
W hite.....................
B lack.....................
Asian'.....................
All other groups2 ....

96,143
11,331
2,730

108,837
14,162
5,106

118,569
16,834
7,130

120,150
16,564
5,949
2,200

130,358
19,765
8,971
3,175

12,694
2,831
2,376

9,732
2,672
2,024

10,208
3,201
3,022
975

13.2
25.0
87.0

8.9
18.9
39.6

8.5
19.3
50.8
44.3

6,734

11,338

16,200

17,942

23,785

4,604

4,862

5,843

68.4

42.9

32.6

103,470

116,767

126,334

126,921

138,484

13,297

9,567

11,562

12.9

8.2

9.1

89,630

98,724

103,360

103,348

106,237

9,094

4,636

2,889

10.1

4.7

2.8

Hispanic origin .......
Other than Hispanic
o rigin .....................
White
non-Hispanic........

See footnotes at end of table.

pational employment patterns of the U.S. economy.
The labor force projections are estimated by combining
population projections calculated by the U.S. Census Bureau
with the labor force participation rate projections developed
by the Bureau of Labor Statistics.2 Consequently, the labor
force is a reflection of changes in either the population trend
or the labor force participation rate. Changes in the labor force
are better understood if they are decomposed into these two
components, each of which is therefore discussed separately
in what follows.

P o p u latio n p ro je c tio n s
The population projections provided to the Bureau of Labor
Statistics by the Census Bureau for this round of projections
were based on the 2000 census of the U.S. population (hereaf­
ter referred to as Census 2000; see box on this page). The
Census Bureau makes several alternative population projec­
tions based on different assumptions about future fertility,
mortality, and migration. The Bureau of Labor Statistics se­
lects the middle-series scenario o f the population projections
as a basis for its labor force projections. The main assump­
tions of the middle series are as follows:
• The level of childbearing among women is assumed
to remain close to the present levels, with differences
by race and Hispanic origin diminishing over time.
38

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February 2004

• Mortality is assumed to decline gradually, with less
variation by race and Hispanic origin than at present.
• International m igration is assum ed to vary over

Census 2000 and the U.S. population
Census 2000 counted 281.4 million people in the United
States, a 13.2-percent increase over the 1990-census popu­
lation of 248.7 million. Numerically, the increase was 32.7
million, the largest between two censuses. In April 1999, the
Census Bureau had estimated that the U.S. population
would reach 274.6 million in 2000. Although the difference
between the estimates and the projections— the so-called
error of closure— was a considerable 6.8 million, Census
2000 resulted in a more accurate count and higher popula­
tion controls for all racial, sex, age, and ethnicity categories.
According to Census 2000, the number of Hispanics had
grown substantially from the previous census, making His­
panics the largest minority in the U.S. population. This
higher population count was reflected most significantly
among Hispanic men and in the younger age category of 18
to 29 years. (More information is available on the Census
Bureau website, http://www.census.gov/population/www/

projections/popproj.html.)

Table 1.

Continued—Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands]

P ercen t distribution

A n n u a l grow th ra te (p e rc e n t)

2002
G roup
1982

1992

1990
census
weights

2000
census
weights

2012

19 82-92

19 92-2002

2 0 0 2 -1 2

Total, 16 years and older.........
16 to 2 4 ...................................
25 to 5 4 ...................................
55 and o ld e r............................

100.0
22.3
64.0
13.7

100.0
16.9
71.4
11.8

100.0
15.7
70.1
14.2

100.0
15.4
70.2
14.3

100.0
15.0
65.9
19.1

1.5
-1.3
2.6
.0

1.1
.4
.9
3.0

1.1
.9
.5
4.1

Men ...........................................
Women ......................................

56.7
43.3

54.6
45.4

53.4
46.6

53.5
46.5

52.5
47.5

1.1
2.0

.8
1.3

1.0
1.3

One race:
W hite.......................................
Black.......................................
Asian1.......................................
All other groups2 .......................

87.2
10.3
2.5

85.0
11.1
4.0

83.2
11.8
5.0

82.9
11.4
4.1
1.5

80.3
12.2
5.5
2.0

1.2
2.3
6.5

.9
1.7
3.4

.8
1.8
4.2
3.7

Hispanic o rigin ..........................

6.1

8.9

11.4

12.4

14.7

5.3

3.6

2.9

Other than Hispanic origin.......

93.9

91.1

88.6

87.6

85.3

1.2

.8

.9

White non-Hispanic..................

81.3

77.1

72.5

71.3

65.5

1.0

.5

.3

’ Data for 1982 and 1992 represent the “Asian and other” category
with 1990 census weights. Data for 2002 with 1990 census weights
represent the “Asian and other" category. Data for 2002 with 2000 census
weights represent the “Asian only” category. Data for 2012 represent the
“Asian only” category with 2000 census weights.

2 The “All other groups” category includes those reporting the racial
categories of (1 a) American Indian and Alaska Native or (1 b) Native Hawaiian
and Other Pacific Islanders and those reporting (2) two or more races. The
category was not defined prior to 2003. Data for 2002 were calculated by bls .

time and decrease, in general, relative to the size of the
population.3

no historical data for the new categories, causing breaks in
the continuity of old categories. This situation has presented
the Bureau of Labor Statistics with great challenges in the
process of constructing labor force projections.

R a c e a n d e th n ic ity pro jectio n s
To comply with the 1964 Civil Rights Act, the 1965 Voting
Rights Act, and other domestic laws, Federal agencies, in­
cluding the Census Bureau, are required to collect data on
race and ethnicity. The number o f racial categories has gone
through numerous changes between the censuses. The cat­
egories established by the Office of Management and Budget
prior to Census 2000 were “white,” “black,” and “Asian and
other.” Am erican Indians/Alaska Natives and Hawaiian and
Pacific Islanders constituted the “other” part of the “Asian
and other” category.
The 2000 census allowed persons to choose more than
one racial identity. Thus, the 2000 census uses the following
racial categories: “white (only),” “black (only),” “Asian
(only),” “American Indian or Alaska Native,” and “Native
Hawaiian and Pacific Islander.” The term “only” refers to those
who selected one race. Anyone who indicated that he or she
was of more than one race was categorized as belonging to a
multiple racial group.4As a result of these changes, the 1990
and 2000 censuses are not directly comparable with regard to
racial categories of population and the labor force. There are


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Problem o f historical comparability.

The Current Popula­
tion Survey (CPS) is the source of historical data on the civil­
ian noninstitutional population, labor force levels, and labor
force participation rates used in b l s labor force projections.5
Although the CPS totals have been adjusted for the 2000 cen­
sus, the actual transition to 2000-based racial categories be­
gan with the January 2003 release of CPS data.
The new racial categories are not exactly the same as those
used in the past, but they are close enough to allow the de­
velopment of time series of labor force participation rates as a
basis for projecting these rates over the 2002-12 period. On
the basis of projections of both the population and labor
force participation rates of the new racial and ethnicity cat­
egories, labor force levels are projected for the various
groups. However, the levels calculated under the new cat­
egories will not be the same as under the old ones. For ex­
ample, the “white only,” “black only,” and “Asian only”
groups in 2000-based actual and projected data are not di­
rectly comparable to the white, black, and “Asian and other”
groups, respectively, in the historical data. In particular, the
Monthly Labor Review

February 2004 39

Labor Force Projections

T a b le 2.

Civilian noninstitutional population by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected

2012
[Numbers in thousands]

Level

A n n u al grow th ra te

C hange

P ercen t distribution

2002

G roup
1982

1992

Total, 16
years and
older........... 172,271 192,805

2002

1990
census
weights

2000
census
weights

213,976

217,570

241,604 20,534

2012

198292

19 922002

198292

19 922002

200212

1982

1990
2000
1992
2012
census census
weights weights

1.1

1.0

1.1

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

2,490
438
2,052

-1.1
-1.3
-1.0

.8
1.6
.2

.7
.3
1.0

21.3
9.2
12.1

17.0
7.2
9.8

16.6
7.6
9.0

16.2
7.4
8.9

15.7
6.8
8.9

200212

21,171 24,034

16 to 2 4 .........
16 to 19.......
20 to 2 4 .......

36,608
15,763
20,845

32,687
13,840
18,846

35,458
16,223
19,235

35,343
15,995
19,348

37,833 -3,921
16,433 -1,923
21,400 -1,999

25 to 5 4 .........
25 to 3 4 .......
35 to 4 4 .......
45 to 5 4 .......

88,367 109,336
38,492 42,278
27,611 39,852
22,264 27,206

119,849
36,857
43,954
39,038

122,076
38,471
43,894
39,711

125,594 20,969
41,510 3,786
40,043 12,241
44,040 4,942

10,513 3,518
-5,421
3,039
4,102 -3,851
11,832 4,329

2.2
.9
3.7
2.0

.9
-1.4
1.0
3.7

.3
.8
-.9
1.0

51.3
22.3
16.0
12.9

56.7
21.9
20.7
14.1

56.0
17.2
20.5
18.2

56.1
17.7
20.2
18.3

52.0
17.2
16.6
18.2

55 and o ld e r...
55 to 6 4 .......
65 and o ld e r.
65 to 7 4 .....
75 and
o ld e r........

47,297
21,909
25,387
15,856

50,783
20,604
30,179
18,012

58,669
25,662
33,007
17,635

60,151
26,343
33,808
17,999

78,178 3,486
37,829 -1,305
40,349 4,792
22,924 2,156

7,886 18,027
5,058 11,486
2,828 6,541
-378 4,925

.7
-.6
1.7
1.3

1.5
2.2
.9
-.2

2.7
3.7
1.8
2.4

27.5
12.7
14.7
9.2

26.3
10.7
15.7
9.3

27.4
12.0
15.4
8.2

27.6
12.1
15.5
8.3

32.4
15.7
16.7
9.5

9,556

12,167

15,373

15,809

17,426

3,206

1,617

2.4

2.4

1.0

5.5

6.3

7.2

7.3

7.2

Men, 16 years
and older......

81,523

92,270

102,925

104,585

116,634 10,747

10,655 12,049

1.2

1.1

1.1

47.3

47.9

48.1

48.1

48.3

16 to 2 4 .........
16 to 19.......
20 to 2 4 .......

18,015
7,879
10,136

16,349
7,023
9,326

17,798
8,250
9,548

17,773
8,146
9,627

18,973 -1,666
8,319
-856
10,654
-810

1,200
173
1,027

-1.0
-1.1
-.8

.9
1.6
.2

.7
.2
1.0

10.5
4.6
5.9

8.5
3.6
4.8

8.3
3.9
4.5

8.2
3.7
4.4

7.9
3.4
4.4

25 to 5 4 .........
25 to 3 4 .......
35 to 4 4 .......
45 to 5 4 .......

42,923
18,787
13,410
10,726

53,648
20,792
19,585
13,271

58,736
18,013
21,665
19,058

59,939
19,036
21,524
19,379

61,988 10,725
20,620 2,005
19,775 6,175
21,594 2,545

5,088 2,049
1,584
-2,779
2,080 -1,749
5,787 2,215

2.3
1.0
3.9
2.2

.9
-.4
1.0
3.7

.3
.8
-.8
1.1

24.9
10.9
7.8
6.2

27.8
10.8
10.2
6.9

27.4
8.4
10.1
8.9

27.5
8.7
9.9
8.9

25.7
8.5
8.2
8.9

55 and o ld e r... 20,586
55 to 6 4 ..... 10,215
65 and older 10,371
65 to 74..
6,867
75 and
o ld e r ....
3,504

22,273
9,776
12,496
7,969

26,392
12,267
14,124
8,045

26,873
12,640
14,233
8,160

35,673
18,184
17,489
10,583

1,687
-439
2,125
1,102

4,119
2,491
1,628
76

8,800
5,544
3,256
2,423

.8
-.4
1.9
1.5

1.7
2.3
1.2
.1

2.9
3.7
2.1
2.6

11.9
5.9
6.0
4.0

11.6
5.1
6.5
4.1

12.3
5.7
6.6
3.8

12.4
5.8
6.5
3.8

14.8
7.5
7.2
4.4

4,527

6,079

6,073

6,906

1,023

1,552

833

2.6

3.0

1.3

2.0

2.3

2.8

2.8

2.9

Women,
16 years
and o ld e r.....

90,748 100,535

111,051

112,985

124,971

9,787

10,516 11,986

1.0

1.0

1.0

52.7

52.1

51.9

51.9

51.7

16 to 2 4 .........
16 to 19.......
20 to 2 4 .......
25 to 5 4 .......
25 to 3 4 .....
35 to 4 4 .....
45 to 5 4 .....

18,593
7,884
10,709
45,444
19,705
14,201
11,538

16,338
6,818
9,520
55,688
21,486
20,267
13,935

17,660
7,973
9,688
61,113
18,844
22,289
19,980

17,570
7,849
9,721
62,137
19,435
22,370
20,332

18,860
8,114
10,746
63,606
20,891
20,269
22,446

-2,255
-1,066
-1,189
10,244
1,781
6,066
2,397

1,322 1,290
1,155
265
168 1,025
5,425 1,469
-2,642
1,456
2,022 -2,101
6,045 2,114

-1.3
-1.4
-1.2
2.1
.9
3.6
1.9

.8
1.6
.2
.9
-1.3
1.0
3.7

.7
.3
1.0
.2
.7
-1.0
1.0

10.8
4.6
6.2
26.4
11.4
8.2
6.7

8.5
3.5
4.9
28.9
11.1
10.5
7.2

8.3
3.7
4.5
28.6
8.8
10.4
9.3

8.1
3.6
4.5
28.6
8.9
10.3
9.3

7.8
3.4
4.4
26.3
8.6
8.4
9.3

55 and older... 26,711
55 to 6 4 ....... 11,694
65 and o ld e r. 15,017
65 to 7 4 .......
8,989
75 and
o ld e r..........
6,052

28,510
10,828
17,682
10,043

32,277
13,395
18,883
9,589

33,278
13,703
19,575
9,839

42,505
19,645
22,861
12,341

1,799
-866
2,665
1,054

3,767
2,567
1,201
-454

9,227
5,942
3,286
2,502

.7
-.8
1.6
1.1

1.2
2.1
.7
-.5

2.5
3.7
1.6
2.3

15.5
6.8
8.7
5.2

14.8
5.6
9.2
5.2

15.1
6.3
8.8
4.5

15.3
6.3
9.0
4.5

17.6
8.1
9.5
5.1

7,640

9,293

9,736

10,519

1,588

1,653

783

2.4

2.0

.8

3.5

4.0

4.3

4.5

4.4

See footnotes at end of table.

40

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February 2004

2,611

2,771
2,383
389

1,449
1,227
222

T a b le 2.

Continued—Civilian noninstitutional population by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and
projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands]

Change

Level

A n n u al grow th ra te

P e rc e n t distribution
2002

2002
G rou p
1982

White, 16
years and
o ld e r.......... 149,441
Men.......... 71,211
W omen.... 78,230

1992

1990
census
weights

162,972
78,651
84,321

177,313
86,160
91,152

2000
census
weights

2012

179,783 193,831
87,361 94,647
92,422 99,184

198292

13,531
7,440
6,091

19922002

200212

14,341 14,048
7,509 7,286
6,831
6,762

198292

1992- 2 0 0 2 2002
12

1982

2000
1990
2012
1992
census census
weights weights

0.9
1.0
.8

0.8
1.0
.8

0.8
.8
.7

86.7
41.3
45.4

84.5
40.8
43.7

82.9
40.3
42.6

82.6
40.2
42.5

80.2
39.2
41.1

Black, 16
years and
o ld e r..........
Men..........
Women....

18,584
8,283
10,300

22,147
9,896
12,251

25,956
11,657
14,299

25,578
11,391
14,187

29,800
13,486
16,314

3,563
1,613
1,951

3,809
1,761
2,048

4,222
2,095
2,127

1.8
1.8
1.7

1.6
1.7
1.6

1.5
1.7
1.4

10.8
4.8
6.0

11.5
5.1
6.4

12.1
5.4
6.7

11.8
5.2
6.5

12.3
5.6
6.8

Asian, 16
years and
older1.........
Men..........
W omen....

4,211
1,991
2,220

7,685
3,721
3,964

10,707
5,108
5,599

8,971
4,252
4,719

11,877
5,507
6,370

3,474
1,730
1,744

3,022
1,387
1,635

2,906
1,255
1,651

6.2
6.5
6.0

3.4
3.2
3.5

2.8
2.6
3.0

2.4
1.2
1.3

4.0
1.9
2.1

5.0
2.4
2.6

4.1
2.0
2.2

4.9
2.3
2.6

4,728
2,309
2,419

6,097
2,994
3,103

2.2
1.1
1.1

2.5
1.2
1.3

25,965
13,221
12,742

34,561
17,298
17,263

6,381
3,350
3,048

All other
groups,
16 years
and older2...
Men..........
W omen....
Hispanic
origin,
16 years
and o ld e r....
Men..........
W omen....

1,369
685
684

10,580
5,203
5,360

16,961
8,553
8,408

23,899
11,767
12,131

Other than
Hispanic
origin, 16
years and
o ld e r.......... 161,691
Men.......... 76,320
Women..... 85,388

175,844
83,717
92,127

190,077
91,158
98,919

191,605 207,043
91,364 99,335
100,243 107,708

14,153
7,397
6,739

White nonHispanic,
16 and
o ld e r.......... 139,201
Men.......... 66,177
Women.... 73,024

148,029
71,076
76,953

154,818
75,070
79,748

155,458 161,729
74,956 78,542
80,502 83,187

8,828
4,898
3,929

Age of baby
boomers.... 18 to 36

28 to 46

38 to 56 38 to 56 48 to 66

’ Data for 1982 and 1992 represent the “Asian and other” category with
1990 census weights. Data for 2002 with 1990 census weights represent the
“Asian and other” category. Data for 2002 with 2000 census weights represent
the “Asian only” category. Data for 2012 represent the “Asian only” category
with 2000 census weights.

sum o f the three new one-race groups will not add to the total,
because there is a residual com prising “all other racial
groups,” a category that includes American Indians, Alaska
Natives, Native Hawaiians, and Pacific Islanders, as well as
those reporting that they belong to multiple racial groups.


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6,938
3,214
3,723

2.6
2.6
2.5

8,596
4,077
4,521

4.8
5.1
4.6

3.5
3.2
3.7

2.9
2.7
3.1

6.1
3.0
3.1

8.8
4.4
4.4

11.2
5.5
5.7

11.9
6.1
5.9

14.3
7.2
7.1

14,233 15,438
7,441
7,971
6,792 7,465

.8
.9
.8

.8
.9
.7

.8
.8
.7

93.9
44.3
49.6

91.2
43.4
47.8

88.8
42.6
46.2

88.1
42.0
46.1

85.7
41.1
44.6

6,271
3,586
2,685

.6
.7
.5

.4
.5
.4

.4
.5
.3

80.8
38.4
42.4

76.8
36.9
39.9

72.4
35.1
37.3

71.5
34.5
37.0

66.9
32.5
34.4

6,790
3,995
2,795

2 The “All other groups” category includes those reporting the racial
categories of (1a) American Indian and Alaska Native or (1 b) Native Hawaiian
and Other Pacific Islanders and those reporting (2) two or more races. The
category was not defined prior to 2003. Data for 2002 were calculated by
BLS.

Trends in Population
Table 2 provides a snapshot of the U.S. population at 10-year
intervals over the 1982-2012 period. The civilian noninsti­
tutional population is expected to continue to grow at 1.1 percent
Monthly Labor Review

February 2004 41

Labor Force Projections

annually during the 2002-12 projection period, reaching 241.6
million in 2012.
Beginning with the 20th century, several demographic
events have had significant impacts on the size, composition,
and growth o f the population:
•

High rates o f reproduction for the population born

prior to the 1920s, plus high immigration from Europe
(chiefly from Italy, Ireland, and Poland) that occurred in
the first two decades of the 20th century.
• The “birth dearth” of the late 1920s and early 1930s.
The effect of the birth dearth is reflected in the declin­
ing number of persons aged 55 to 64 years from 1982 to
1992 and the drop in the number o f those aged 65 to 74
years from 1992 to 2002. In 2002-12, the birth dearth is
manifested in the slow growth of the 75-and-older age
group.
• The “baby boom ” starting in 1946 and lasting until
1964— a period of 18 years. The impact of this surge in
the population level can be traced by following the
movements of the baby-boom generation through age
groups with the greatest increase in each period. For
example, the 35- to 44-year age group increased most
significantly (almost 12.2 million) over the 1982-92 pe­
riod, and the 45- to 54-year age group had its greatest
increase (nearly 11.8 million) over the 1992-2002 pe­
riod. For the 2002-12 projection period, persons aged
55 to 64 years include the boomers and are expected to
have the greatest growth in population, 11.5 million.
• The “baby bust,” reflecting the drop in birthrates
after 1965 and through the 1970s. The population in the
age group following the baby boomers, including those
aged 16 to 24 years in 1982-92,25 to 34 years from 1992
to 2002, and 35 to 44 years in the 2002-12 projection
period, show declining numbers. From 2002 to 2012,
the number of persons aged 35 to 44 years is expected
to decline by 3.8 million. This same age group increased
by 12.2 million during 1982-92, when it contained a high
concentration of baby boomers.
• The “baby-boom echo,” reflecting a modest increase
in births from the late 1970s through the early 1990s.
The baby-boom echo is traceable to the increase in
births of the women of the baby-boom generation and
is reflected in the growth of the population aged 16 to
24 years during 2002-12.
• The m assiv e m ig ratio n to the U nited S tates that
started in the 1970s and is continuing today. The dra­
matic increase in the immigrant population has resulted
42

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February 2004

in higher growth rates for the U.S. population. In addi­
tion, because all children born to immigrants in the
United States are, by definition, natives, immigration
has resulted in increased fertility rates for specific
groups, again adding to the growth of the population.
The estimated future trends in the civilian noninstitutional
population are based on the Census Bureau’s middle popula­
tion projection assumptions and reflect all of the foregoing
demographic events. The Census Bureau provides the Bu­
reau of Labor Statistics with an estimate of the future resident
population. The Bureau of Labor Statistics then transforms
the projections for the resident population to a projection of
the civilian noninstitutional population by making several ad­
justments to the data. First, the Bureau estimates trends in the
Armed Forces, to produce an estimate of the civilian popula­
tion. Then, on the basis of another set of assumptions about
the institutionalization of the different categories of popula­
tion, the civilian population is transform ed to the civilian
noninstitutional population for the years covered by the
BLS projections.
Table 2 shows the two estimates of the 2002 civilian nonin­
stitutional population, one with the 1990 census weights and
one with the 2000 census weights. In accordance with the
2000 weights, the civilian noninstitutional population was
217.6 million in 2002 and is projected to reach nearly 242 mil­
lion, in 2012. The share of youths— persons aged 16 to 24
years— was 16.2 percent in 2002 and is projected to decrease
to 15.7 percent in 2012. The working-age population (those
aged 25 to 54 years) also will decrease in share, from 56 per­
cent in 2002 to 52 percent in 2012. The older age segment of
the civilian noninstitutional population, those aged 55 years
and older, will increase its relative share, from 27.6 percent to
more than 32 percent. The fastest-growing age category is
the 55-to-64 age group, with 3.7 percent annual growth, fol­
lowed by the 65-to-74 age group, with 2.4 percent growth.
As regards the sex categories, the civilian noninstitutional
population of men stood at 104.6 million in 2002 and is pro­
jected to be 116.6 million in 2012,48 percent of the total civil­
ian noninstitutional population that year. The w om en’s civil­
ian noninstitutional population was around 113 million in 2002
and is projected to be nearly 125 million in 2012,52 percent of
the total civilian noninstitutional population that year. In 2012,
the civilian noninstitutional population of women will thus be
nearly 8 million more than men.
Census 2000 resulted in higher numbers than previous
estimates for the total population and for some segments of
the population. The group most affected was Hispanics, es­
pecially the younger age groups, which showed much higher
population numbers. The Hispanic population was nearly 26
million in 2002 and is projected to increase to nearly 35 million
in 2012, a growth rate of 2.9 percent, much faster than the

white non-Hispanic growth rate of 0.4 percent, over the 200212 period.
The youth population, aged 16 to 24 years, is expected to
grow 0.7 percent annually. The population of the 55-and-older
age group is projected to increase by 18 m illion over the pro­
jection period, or 2.7 percent per year. Those aged 55 to 64 are
estimated to increase by 11.5 million over the period, or 3.7
percent annually, a rate higher than that o f all other age
groups. As a result o f the birth dearth that followed the baby
boom, the 35-to-44 age group will be the only group to de­
crease in numbers.

The im p a c t of m igration
Among the three m ajor components of national population
change— births, deaths, and international migration— the last
is hardest to project, in large part because international m i­
gration is affected by many factors, some of which are diffi­
cult to predict. The Census Bureau uses age- and sex-specific
rates from the 1980s to project net migration as a basis for its
population projections. However, overall net migration still
would account for a sizable proportion of the net population
growth over the projected 2002-12 period.
M igration affects the demographic com position of the
population in several ways. (See table 2.) The first is reflected
in the rapid growth rate of some of the racial and ethnic cat­
egories, such as the H ispanic population. The projected
growth rates for some of these racial groups are expected to
be greater than they were the previous decade, increasing the
groups’ shares of the labor force.
The second way migration affects the composition of the
population is by age distribution. For example, persons aged
25 to 34 years numbered 38.5 million in 1982. Ten years later,
this same cohort was even larger, nearly 40 million. Similarly,
the number o f persons aged 20 to 24 years grew from almost
21 million to slightly more than 42 million 10 years later. Be­
cause everyone in these age groups has already been bom,
an increase in births does not affect the size of the groups.
The only way these cohorts could increase their numbers is
through net migration. Thus, the population at these rela­
tively young age cohorts is significantly affected by migra­
tion.6 The increase in immigration levels since the mid-1980s
was at least partially the result of the provisions of the Immi­
gration Reform and Control Act of 1986. As the immigrants
admitted into the country under the Act became citizens, they
could sponsor the legal immigration of immediate relatives
without being subject to numerical limits.

Labor fo rc e p a rtic ip a tio n rates
The labor force participation rates— the proportion of the ci­
vilian noninstitutional population in the labor force— by age,


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sex, race, and Hispanic origin are shown in table 3. The Cen­
sus 2000 changes in the racial categories affected both popu­
lation and labor force data in a comparable fashion. There­
fore, it did not generally affect the observed trends in the
labor force participation rates in any considerable way.

Participation rates by age.

The youth labor force, consist­
ing of persons aged 16 to 24 years, had a participation rate of
63.3 percent in 2002. The participation rate of this age group is
expected to rise slightly, to 64.4 percent, in 2012. School attend­
ance has been the main reason for the group’s relatively low
participation rate. Within the group, the participation rate for
those aged 20 to 24 years is expected to rise from 76.4 percent
to 78.2 percent.
The participation rate is highest among 25- to 54-year-olds;
the group’s rate has been higher than 80 percent for the last
several decades. The participation rate of this group is pro­
jected to rise to 85.1 percent in 2012, from 83.3 percent in 2002.
Labor force participation rates generally decline dramati­
cally for the 55-and-older age group relative to other age
groups. The participation rate for these older persons histori­
cally had been declining until 1985. Since then, the 55-to-64
age group increased its participation rate from 55.1 percent in
1982 to 56.2 percent in 1992. The rate rose to 61.9 percent in
2002 and is expected to reach 65.1 percent by 2012. The 65-to74 age group had a participation rate of 16.2 percent in 1982.
The rate increased to 20.4 percent in 2000 and is projected to
rise to 23.6 percent by 2012.

Participation rates by sex and age.

The labor force partici­
pation rates of men always have been higher than those of
women, both at the aggregate level and for the various age
groups. As table 3 illustrates, the gap between the labor force
participation rates of men and women has been shrinking for
decades, reflected in the two groups’ different trends in par­
ticipation rates. In general, except for those 55 years and older,
the rates for men have been declining. The overall labor force
participation rate of men stood at 76.6 in 1982 and fell to 75.8
in 1992. In 2002, the participation rate of men declined further,
to 74.1. The m en’s participation rate is expected to continue to
decrease and reach 73.1 in 2012. In contrast, the rates for
women have been increasing over these periods. The overall
labor force participation rate of women was 52.6 percent in
1982, increasing to 57.8 percent in 1992 and 59.6 percent in
2002. The labor force participation rate of women is projected
to be 61.6 percent in 2012. The labor force participation rate of
women 55 years and older is expected to be 34.5 percent in
2012. Included in this age group are women 55 to 64 years,
whose participation rate has the highest percentage-point
change between 2002 and 2012. These women are projected
to have a 60.6-percent participation rate in 2012.
The age-specific participation rates of men have been de ­
creasing across many age groups; as a result, the aggregate
Monthly Labor Review

February 2004 43

Labor Force Projections

Table 3.

Civilian labor force participation rates by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected

________

2012

A n n u al grow th ra te

P e rc e n ta g e -p o in t c h a n g e

P articip atio n ra te
2002
G rou p
1982

1992

1990
census
weights

2000
census
weights

2012

1 9 8 2 -9 2

1 9 9 2 -2 0 0 2

2 0 0 2 -1 2

1 9 82-9 2

1992-2002 2002- 1:

Total, 16 years
and older...............

64.0

66.4

66.6

66.6

67.2

2.5

0.2

0.6

0.4

0.0

0.1

16 to 2 4 .....................
16 to 1 9 ..................
20 to 2 4 ...................

67.2
54.1
77.2

66.1
51.3
77.1

63.2
47.6
76.4

63.3
47.4
76.4

64.4
46.5
78.2

-1.1
-2.8
-.1

-2.9
-3.7
-.6

1.2
-1.0
1.8

-.2
-.5
.0

-.4
-.7
-.1

.2
-.2
.2

25 to 5 4 .....................
25 to 3 4 ...................
35 to 4 4 ...................
45 to 5 4 ...................

79.8
81.0
81.2
75.9

83.6
83.7
85.1
81.5

83.3
83.6
84.2
82.1

83.3
83.7
84.1
82.1

85.1
85.3
86.0
84.1

3.8
2.6
3.8
5.6

-.3
.0
-.9
.6

1.8
1.6
1.9
2.0

.5
.3
.5
.7

.0
.0
-.1
.1

.2
.2
.2
.2

55 and o ld e r.............
55 to 6 4 ...................
65 and older.........
65 to 7 4 ................
75 and older.........

31.9
55.1
11.9
16.2
‘4.9

29.7
56.2
11.5
16.3
4.5

34.5
61.8
13.3
20.4
5.1

34.5
61.9
13.2
20.4
5.1

39.7
65.1
15.9
23.6
5.7

-2.3
1.2
-.4
.1
-.4

4.9
5.6
1.8
4.1
.7

5.1
3.2
2.7
3.2
.7

-.7
.2
-.4
.1
-.9

1.5
1.0
1.4
2.3
1.4

1.4
.5
1.9
1.5
1.2

Men, 16 years
and o ld e r................

76.6

75.8

73.9

74.1

73.1

-.8

-1.9

-1.0

-.1

-.3

-.1

16 to 2 4 .....................
16 to 19...................
20 to 2 4 ...................

72.6
56.7
84.9

70.5
53.4
83.3

65.3
47.6
80.6

65.5
47.5
80.7

65.7
45.6
81.4

-2.1
-3.3
-1.6

-5.2
-5.8
-2.7

.2
-1.9
.7

-.3
-.6
-.2

-.8
-1.1
-.3

.0
-.4
.1

25 to 5 4 .....................
25 to 3 4 ...................
35 to 4 4 ...................
45 to 5 4 ...................

94.0
94.7
95.3
91.2

93.0
93.8
93.7
90.7

91.0
92.4
92.1
88.5

91.0
92.4
92.1
88.5

91.0
92.5
92.3
88.6

-1.0
-.9
-1.6
-.5

-2.0
-1.4
-1.6
-2.3

.0
.0
.1
.1

-.1
-.1
-.2
-.1

-.2
-.2
-.2
-.3

.0
.0
.0
.0

55 and o ld e r.............
55 to 6 4 ..................
65 and older.........
65 to 7 4 ................
75 and older.........

43.8
70.2
17.8
22.5
8.5

38.4
67.0
16.1
21.1
7.3

41.7
69.2
17.8
25.4
7.6

42.0
69.2
17.9
25.5
7.6

45.8
69.9
20.8
29.1
8.2

-5.4
-3.2
-1.7
-1.4
-1.2

3.2
2.2
1.7
4.3
.4

3.8
.7
3.0
3.6
.5

-1.3
-.5
-1.0
-.7
-1.5

.8
.3
1.1
1.9
.5

.9
.1
1.5
1.3
.7

Women, 16 years
and o ld e r................

52.6

57.8

59.9

59.6

61.6

5.2

2.0

2.0

.9

.3

.3

16 to 2 4 .....................
16 to 19...................
20 to 2 4 ..................

62.0
51.4
69.8

61.8
49.1
70.9

61.2
47.6
72.3

61.1
47.3
72.1

63.2
47.4
75.1

-.2
-2.4
1.1

-.6
-1.4
1.4

2.1
.1
3.0

.0
-.5
.2

-.1
-.3
.2

.3
.0
.4

25 to 5 4 .....................
25 to 3 4 ..................
35 to 4 4 ...................
45 to 5 4 ..................

66.3
68.0
68.0
61.6

74.6
73.9
76.7
72.6

76.0
75.3
76.5
76.0

75.9
75.1
76.4
76.0

79.3
78.2
79.9
79.8

8.3
5.9
8.8
11.0

1.4
1.4
-.2
3.3

3.4
3.1
3.4
3.8

1.2
.8
1.2
1.7

.2
.2
.0
.5

.4
.4
.4
.5

55 and o ld e r.............
55 to 6 4 ...................
65 and older.........
65 to 7 4 ................
75 and older.........

22.7
41.8
7.9
11.3
2.8

22.8
46.5
8.3
12.5
2.8

28.7
55.1
9.9
16.1
3.5

28.5
55.2
9.8
16.1
3.5

34.5
60.6
12.1
18.9
4.1

.1
4.7
.4
1.1
.0

5.9
8.6
1.6
3.7
.7

6.0
5.4
2.3
2.8
.6

.0
1.1
.5
1.0
.1

2.3
1.7
1.8
2.6
2.3

1.9
.9
2.1
1.6
1.7

See footnote at end of table.

44

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February 2004

Table 3.

Continued—Civilian labor force participation rates by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002,
and projected 2012
P articip ation ra te

P e rc e n ta g e -p o in t c h a n g e

A n n u a l grow th ra te

2002
G rou p
1982

1992

1990
census
weights

2000
census
weights

2012

19 82-9 2

1 9 9 2 -2 0 0 2

2 0 0 2 -1 2

1 9 82-9 2

19 92-2002 2 0 02-1 2

White, 16 years
and o ld e r................
Men........................
Women...................

64.3
77.4
52.4

66.8
76.5
57.7

66.9
74.6
59.6

66.8
74.8
59.3

66.2
73.5
59.2

2.4
-.9
5.3

0.1
-1.9
1.9

-0.6
-1.2
-.1

0.4
-.1
1.0

-.3
.3

-0.1
-.2
.0

Black, 16 years
and o ld e r................
Men........................
Women...................

61.0
70.1
53.7

63.9
70.7
58.5

64.9
66.4
62.0

64.8
68.4
61.8

66.3
69.1
64.0

3.0
.6
4.8

.9
-4.3
3.5

1.6
.7
2.2

.5
.1
.9

.1
-.6
.6

.2
.1
.4

Asian, 16 years
and older'.................
Men........................
Women...................

64.8
76.0
54.8

66.5
75.2
58.2

66.6
75.2
58.8

66.3
75.6
57.9

68.7
77.3
61.3

1.7
-.7
3.5

.1
-.1
.5

2.4
1.7
3.4

.3
-.1
.6

.0
.0
.1

.4
.2
.6

Hispanic origin,
16 years and older..
Men........................
Women...................

63.6
79.5
48.2

66.8
80.7
52.8

67.8
78.8
57.1

69.1
80.2
57.5

68.8
79.0
58.6

3.2
1.2
4.5

.9
-1.9
4.3

-.3
-1.2
1.0

.5
.1
.9

.1
-.2
.8

.0
-.1
.2

Other than Hispanic
origin, 16 years
and older...............
Men........................
Women...................

64.0
76.4
52.9

66.4
75.3
58.3

66.5
73.3
60.2

72.3
78.3
66.7

66.9
72.1
62.1

2.4
-1.1
5.4

.1
-2.1
1.9

-5.4
-6.3
-4.6

0.4
-.1
1.0

.0
-.3
.3

-.8
-.8
-.7

White non-Hispanic,
16 years and older..
Men........................
Women...................

64.4
77.2
52.7

66.7
76.0
58.1

66.8
73.9
60.0

66.5
73.8
59.6

65.7
72.4
59.4

2.3
-1.3
5.5

.1
-2.0
1.9

-.8
-1.4
-.3

0.4
-.2
1.0

.0
-.3
.3

-.1
-.2
.0

0.0

1Data for 1982 and 1992 represent the “Asian and other” category with
1990 census weights. Data for 2002 with 1990 census weights represent the
“Asian and other” category. Data for 2002 with 2000 census weights represent
the “Asian only” category. Data for 2012 represent the “Asian only” category
_with_2000_census weights.

N o t e : Because the transition to 2000-based racial categories began
with the January 2003 c p s data, the labor force participation rate of the “All
other groups” category was not calculated.

labor force participation rates o f m en have consistently
moved downward. The labor force participation rate for men
65 years and older began to increase in the 1980s. The labor
force participation rate for men 65 to 74 years increased by
4.3 percentage points from 1992 to 2002, reversing a trend
dating back to 1890. This group’s labor force participation
rate is projected to be 29.1 percent in 2012, up 3.6 percentage
points from the 2002 figure.
The overall expansion o f the U.S. economy over the past
several decades, the provision of inflation-adjusted Social
Security and Medicare benefits, and the growth of pensions
and nonpension assets has provided more people with an
adequate standard of living in retirement. All these factors
may explain the declining labor force participation of men,
particularly aged 65 years and older. However, since 1985,
the decrease in the labor force participation rate has stabi­
lized.
A number of reasons explain why the overall labor force
participation rate of men had been decreasing up until the

mid-1980s and why the labor force participation rate of men
aged 55 years and older has started an upward trend.
First, during the 1950-80 period, defined benefit pension
coverage became more widespread. Under this plan, workers
realized a higher return on pension benefits by retiring as
soon as they became eligible. During m ost of the 1980s, em­
ployment downsizing plans frequently included early pen­
sions and lump-sum payments to older workers. By contrast,
since the end of the 1980s, the conversion of pension plans
from a defined benefit to a defined contribution approach has
discouraged early retirem ents and reversed the declining
trends of participation rates for men aged 55 years and older.
The share of defined contribution plans increased from about
20 percent in 1981 to nearly 60 percent in 2000.7
Research has shown that labor force participation rates
drop significantly at ages 62 and 65, which are, respectively,
the earliest age at which one can retire and receive Social
Security benefits and the “normal” age at which one can retire
and receive full Social Security benefits.8


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Monthly Labor Review

February 2004 45

Labor Force Projections

Unlike men’s rates, the labor force participation rates of women
have been increasing across all age groups over the past several
decades. Women aged 45 to 54 years increased their participa­
tion by 11 percentage points during 1982-92, the highest among
all age groups. The same cohort displayed the greatest increase
in participation, 8.6 percent, in the 1992-2002 period, when they
reached ages 55 to 64. However, for the 2002-12 period, when
this cohort will be 65 to 74 years, they will yield their number-one
ranking to a group of younger women: those aged 55 to 64 years,
whose labor force participation rate will increase by 5.4 percent.
Interestingly, men aged 65 to 74 years are expected to increase
their participation m ore than wom en in that age range.
As table 3 indicates, the labor force participation rates of
women and men have been converging. The gap in aggregate
rates is expected to shrink by 12.5 percentage points over the
1982-2012 period, from more than 24 percentage points in
1982 to 11.5 points in 2012. In 1982, each group of women
aged 25 to 54 years had labor force participation rates 28 per­
centage points lower than men the same age. By 2002, these
differences had dropped by 15 percentage points; by 2012,
they will be less than 11.5 percentage points. For workers aged
16 to 24 years, the difference in 2002 was relatively small and is
expected to get even smaller. For older men and women, the
difference in participation rates, m easured by percentage
points, was even smaller, reflecting a significantly lower par­
ticipation at older ages.

Second, beginning with the year 2000, the normal retire­
ment age for receiving Social Security benefits increased, and
it will continue to do so gradually on a prescheduled basis.9
According to the new schedule, the size of the benefit is low­
ered for each month a recipient retires younger than the nor­
mal retirement age. The new provision will encourage workers
to continue working later in life. Under this plan, starting in
the year 2000, the age o f retirement increased by 2 months for
those born in 1938,4 months for those born in 1939,6 months
for those born in 1940, and so on. All those who were born in
1937 or earlier are exempted from the law. People bom between
1943 and 1954 (a large portion of the baby boomers) will be eli­
gible for retirement when they reach 66. For people bom in 1960
and later, the normal retirement age will be 67 years. The reduced
benefits will encourage the large number in the labor force who
are dependent on Social Security benefits for their entire income
to work longer, or else they will end up with lower benefits during
their retirement years.
The removal of the “earnings lim it” law, better known as
the Senior Citizens Freedom to Work Act, in 2000 has elimi­
nated work disincentives for seniors. Prior to 2000, the earn­
ings penalty, in the form of reduced benefits for those workers
aged 65 to 70 years who earned wages, was a major disincen­
tive to working and resulted in lower participation rates.

Participation rates by sex.

Men aged 25 to 54 years are
strongly attached to the labor force, and their labor force partici­
pation rates are mostly in the low- to mid-90-percent range. For
most age groups of men under 55 years, the drop in participation
was greater in the 1992-2002 period than in the 1982-92 period.
Table 4.

Participation rate by race and Hispanic origin.

D iffer­
ences in labor force participation by race and Hispanic origin
are usually not as great as those observed by age and sex.

Comparison of labor force participation rates and age composition of Hispanic and white
non-Hispanic men, 2002

[In percent]

C o m p o sitio n of p o p u la tio n b y a g e

Labor fo rc e p a rtic ip a tio n ra te

Age
Hispanic

W hite nonHispanic

D iffere nce
(w h ite no nHispanic less
Hispanic)

Hispanic

W hite n o n H isp anic

D iffe re n c e
(w h ite no nH ispanic less
Hispanic)

16 and 1 7 ........................
18 and 1 9 ........................
20 and 2 1 ........................
22 to 2 4 ...........................
25 to 2 9 ...........................
30 to 3 4 ...........................
35 to 3 9 ...........................
40 to 4 4 ...........................

29.8
66.2
79.8
90.2
92.8
94.1
92.5
91.7

39.0
63.0
76.0
86.7
93.1
94.3
93.8
93.0

9.3
-3.2
-3.8
-3.5
.2
.3
1.3
1.3

4.7
5.1
5.7
8.6
13.3
14.9
10.5
11.3

3.6
3.4
3.3
4.7
7.6
8.4
9.7
10.4

-1.1
-1.7
-2.4
-3.9
-5.8
-6.4
-.8
-.8

45 to 4 9 ...........................
50 to 5 4 ...........................
55 to 5 9 ...........................
60 and 6 1 ........................
62 to 6 4 ...........................
65 to 6 9 ...........................
70 to 7 4 ...........................
75 and older....................

87.6
84.4
75.9
65.5
48.9
29.8
16.4
7.1

91.5
88.2
79.4
68.5
51.2
32.7
18.0
7.8

3.9
3.7
3.5
3.0
2.2
2.8
1.6
.7

6.9
6.1
3.9
1.3
1.7
1.9
1.6
2.7

10.4
9.2
7.6
2.5
3.3
4.8
4.2
6.9

3.5
3.1
3.8
1.2
1.6
2.9
2.6
4.2

46

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February 2004

However, changes in labor force rates over time differ among
the various groups. W hen changes in participation rates are
combined with different patterns of population growth, sub­
stantial differences in the future labor force result.
The following tabulation ranks the various racial and eth­
nic categories in terms of their labor force participation rates
in 2002, with 1 indicating the highest rate and 4 the lowest:

T otal

Hispanic
White nonHispanic
Asian
Black

M en

Hispanic
Asian
White nonHispanic
Black

W om en

R an k

Black
White nonHispanic

2

Asian
Hispanic

3
4

T otal

Hispanic
Asian
Black
White nonHispanic

M en

Hispanic
Asian
White nonHispanic
Black

W om en

R ank

Black
Asian
White nonHispanic

1
2

Hispanic

4

3

1

Note that the rankings by race differ by sex. Hispanic men
have the highest overall labor force participation rate. His­
panic women, by contrast, have the lowest participation in
the workforce relative to other racial and ethnic categories.
For blacks, the situation is reversed, with men having the
lowest participation rate and women the highest.
The high labor force participation rate for Hispanic men
reflects, in part, th eir age structure. H ispanics have a
younger population, with a greater proportion at the ages
of h igher labor force participation. As table 4 shows, the
labor force participation rates for H ispanic m en are higher
at ages 18 and 19, 20 and 21, and 22 to 24. The table also
shows that H ispanic m en have proportionally m ore young
m en than the w hite non-H ispanic population has. The ag­
gregate labor force participation rate for a given racial or
ethnic group can be expressed as the w eighted sum of the
age-specific rates, in w hich the w eight for each age group
is its share o f the total population. If, on the one hand,
H ispanic m en had the age distribution of white non-H is­
panic m en in 2002, w hile retaining their own labor force
participation rates, their aggregate labor force participa­
tion rate w ould have been 72.2 percent, significantly lower
than their actual rate (80.2 percent) and only slightly lower
than the rate for w hite non-H ispanic m en (73.8 percent).
(See table 4.) If, on the other hand, white non-H ispanic
m en had the population distribution o f H ispanic men in
2002, their overall participation rate would have been 81.1
percent, higher than their actual rate and above the 80.2percent rate for H ispanic m en. Thus, the aggregate labor
force participation rate is a result o f the age distribution of
the population, as well as the labor force participation rates
of the different age categories.
The preceding examples indicate that age, sex, and race
are important in describing the variations in labor force par­
ticipation rates. The ranking of the overall participation rates


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in 2012 is projected to change the rankings of the different
racial and ethnic categories that year:

For the total labor force participation rates by racial groups,
compared with 2002, Hispanics retained their place in the rank­
ing and Asians achieved second place, followed by blacks
and white non-Hispanics. The rankings for men did not change
from 2002. Asians are projected to have the greatest increase,
with a 2.4-percentage-point rise in their overall rate over the
2002-12 period. This increase reflects a 3.4-percentage-point
gain in participation rate by Asian women. Overall labor force
participation rates for blacks are expected to increase during
the 2002-12 timeframe as well. The labor force participation of
white non-Hispanics is expected to decrease slightly, reflect­
ing decreasing trends for both women and men.

P ro jec te d la b o r fo rc e p a rtic ip a tio n rates
The overall labor force participation rate is projected to rise
by 0.6 percentage point between 2002 and 2012. Increases in
the rate are expected to be greatest for the 55-to-64 and 65-to74 age groups. The age range of peak labor force participation
in both 2002 and 2012 is still 25 to 54 years, with a participa­
tion rate in the mid-80-percent range. Thus, the baby-boom
generation’s aging by itself will act to slow overall participa­
tion growth, because baby boomers will be older than the age
of highest participation.
The labor force participation rate of men is projected to de­
crease by 1.0 percentage point, slightly less than the 1.9-point
decline registered over the last decade. The overall m en’s rate is
a summary of the changes in the age composition of the popula­
tion and changes in labor force participation for each age, as well
as of the increased racial and ethnic diversity of the male popu­
lation. For men in the peak ages of labor force participation, 25 to
54 years, the rates show no growth. Older men are expected to
continue to have increasing participation.
The increase in the wom en’s labor force participation rate
over the past two decades has displayed a pattern of slower
growth in each successive period. The Bureau projects that
this pattern will continue for the 2002-12 period. For most age
groups, labor force participation growth is projected to be
greater during that period than during the previous 10 years.
With the aging of the population, however, the increase in the
aggregate women’s labor force participation rate is anticipated
Monthly Labor Review

February 2004 47

Labor Force Projections

Table 5.

Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands]
P ercen t c h a n g e

C hange

Level

2002

G roup
1992

1982

1990
census
weights

2000
census
weights

2012

1 9 8 2 -9 2

1992-2002

2 0 0 2 -1 2

1 9 82-9 2

1992-2002

2 0 0 2 -1 2

Total, 16 years
and o ld e r........

110,204

128,105

142,534

144,863

162,269

17,901

14,429

17,406

16.2

11.3

12.0

16 to 2 4 ............
16 to 19..........
20 to 2 4 ..........

24,608
8,526
16,082

21,617
7,096
14,521

22,425
7,723
14,702

22,366
7,586
14,780

24,377
7,636
16,740

-2,991
-1,430
-1,561

808
627
181

2,011
50
1,960

-12.2
-16.8
-9.7

3.7
8.8
1.2

9.0
0.7
13.3

25 to 5 4 ............
25 to 3 4 ..........
35 to 4 4 ..........
45 to 5 4 ..........

70,506
31,186
22,431
16,889

91,429
35,369
33,899
22,160

99,865
30,831
36,998
32,036

101,720
32,196
36,927
32,597

106,866
35,406
34,434
37,026

20,923
4,183
11,468
5,271

8,436
-4,538
3,099
9,876

5,146
3,210
-2,493
4,429

29.7
13.4
51.1
31.2

9.2
-12.8
9.1
44.6

5.1
10.0
-6.8
13.6

55 and older.....
55 to 6 4 ..........
65 and o ld e r....
65 to 7 4 ........
75 and older..

15,092
12,062
3,030
2,566
464

15,060
11,587
3,473
2,932
542

20,244
15,863
4,381
3,593
789

20,777
16,308
4,469
3,665
804

31,026
24,616
6,410
5,411
1,000

-32
-475
443
366
78

5,184
4,276
908
661
247

10,249
8,308
1,941
1,746
196

-.2
-3.9
14.6
14.3
16.8

34.4
36.9
26.2
22.5
45.5

49.3
50.9
43.4
47.6
24.3

Men, 16 years
and older.........

62,450

69,964

76,052

77,500

85,252

7,514

6,088

7,751

12.0

8.7

10.0

16 to 2 4 ............
16 to 19..........
20 to 2 4 ..........

13,074
4,470
8,604

11,521
3,751
7,770

11,619
3,926
7,693

11,639
3,870
7,769

12,461
3,791
8,670

-1,553
-719
-834

98
175
-77

822
-79
901

-11.9
-16.1
-9.7

.8
4.7
-1.0

7.1
-2.0
11.6

25 to 5 4 ............
25 to 3 4 ..........
35 to 4 4 ..........
45 to 5 4 ..........

40,357
17,793
12,781
9,784

49,882
19,495
18,347
12,040

53,439
16,635
19,946
16,858

54,568
17,596
19,829
17,143

56,435
19,069
18,244
19,122

9,525
1,702
5,566
2,256

3,557
-2,860
1,599
4,818

1,866
1,473
-1,585
1,978

23.6
9.6
43.5
23.1

7.1
-14.7
8.7
40.0

3.4
8.4
-8.0
11.5

55 and older.....
55 to 6 4 ..........
65 and o ld e r....
65 to 7 4 ........
75 and older..

9,019
7,174
1,845
1,548
297

8,561
6,551
2,010
1,681
329

10,995
8,486
2,509
2,045
464

11,293
8,750
2,543
2,079
464

16,356
12,714
3,641
3,077
564

-458
-623
165
133
32

2,434
1,935
499
364
135

5,063
3,964
1,098
998
100

-5.1
-8.7
8.9
8.6
10.8

28.4
29.5
24.8
21.6
41.1

44.8
45.3
43.2
48.0
21.6

Women, 16 years
and o ld e r........

47,755

58,141

66,481

67,363

77,017

10,386

8,340

9,654

21.7

14.3

14.3

16 to 2 4 ............
16 to 19..........
20 to 2 4 ..........

11,533
4,056
7,477

10,096
3,345
6,750

10,806
3,797
7,009

10,727
3,716
7,011

11,916
3,845
8,070

-1,437
-711
-727

710
452
259

1,189
129
1,059

-12.5
-17.5
-9.7

7.0
13.5
3.8

11.1
3.5
15.1

25 to 54 ............
25 to 3 4 ..........
35 to 4 4 ..........
45 to 5 4 ..........

30,149
13,393
9,651
7,105

41,547
15,875
15,552
10,120

46,426
14,196
17,052
15,178

47,152
14,600
17,098
15,454

50,431
16,337
16,189
17,905

11,398
2,482
5,901
3,015

4,879
-1,679
1,500
5,058

3,279
1,737
-909
2,451

37.8
18.5
61.1
42.4

11.7
-10.6
9.6
50.0

7.0
11.9
-5.3
15.9

55 and older.....
55 to 6 4 ..........
65 and o ld e r....
65 to 7 4 ........
75 and older..

6,073
4,888
1,185
1,018
167

6,499
5,035
1,464
1,251
213

9,250
7,377
1,873
1,548
325

9,485
7,558
1,927
1,586
340

14,671
11,902
2,769
2,333
436

426
147
279
233
46

2,751
2,342
409
297
112

5,186
4,344
842
747
96

7.0
3.0
23.5
22.9
27.5

42.3
46.5
27.9
23.7
52.4

54.7
57.5
43.7
47.1
28.1

White, 16 years
and o ld e r........
Men...............
Women..........

96,143
55,133
41,010

108,837
60,168
48,669

118,569
64,241
54,328

120,150
65,308
54,842

130,358
70,592
59,766

12,694
5,035
7,659

9,732
5,284
4,924

10,208
6,291
5,924

13.2
9.1
18.7

8.9
6.8
11.6

8.5
8.1
9.0

See footnotes at end of table.

48

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

Table 5.

Continued—Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands]
P ercen t distribution

A n n u al grow th ra te (p e rc e n t)

2002
G roup
1982

1992

1900
census
weights

2000
census
weights

Total, 16 years and older......

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

100.0

1.5

1.1

1.1

16 to 2 4 ....................................
16 to 19..................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................

22.3
7.7
14.6

16.9
5.5
11.3

15.7
5.4
10.3

15.4
5.2
10.2

15.0
4.7
10.3

-1.3
-1.8
-1.0

.4
.9
.1

.9
.1
1.3

25 to 5 4 ....................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................

64.0
28.3
20.4
15.3

71.4
27.6
26.5
17.3

70.1
21.6
26.0
22.5

70.2
22.2
25.5
22.5

65.9
21.8
21.2
22.8

2.6
1.3
4.2
2.8

.9
-1.4
.9
3.8

.5
1.0
-.7
1.3

55 and older.............................
55 to 6 4 ..................................
65 and o ld e r...........................
65 to 7 4 ..................................
75 and older.........................

13.7
10.9
2.7
2.3
.4

11.8
9.0
2.7
2.3
.4

14.2
11.1
3.1
2.5
.6

14.3
11.3
3.1
2.5
.6

19.1
15.2
4.0
3.3
.6

.0
-.4
1.4
1.3
1.6

3.0
3.2
2.4
2.1
3.8

4.1
4.2
3.7
4.0
2.2

Men, 16 years and o ld e r........

56.7

54.6

53.4

53.5

52.5

1.1

.8

1.0

16 to 2 4 ....................................
16 to 19..................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................

11.9
4.1
7.8

9.0
2.9
6.1

8.2
2.8
5.4

8.0
2.7
5.4

7.7
2.3
5.3

-1.3
-1.7
-1.0

.1
.5
-.1

.7
-.2
1.1

25 to 5 4 ....................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................

36.6
16.1
11.6
8.9

38.9
15.2
14.3
9.4

37.5
11.7
14.0
11.8

37.7
12.1
13.7
11.8

34.8
11.8
11.2
11.8

2.1
.9
3.7
2.1

.7
-1.6
.8
3.4

.3
.8
-.8
1.1

55 and older.............................
55 to 6 4 ..................................
65 and o ld e r...........................
65 to 7 4 ..................................
75 and older.........................

8.2
6.5
1.7
1.4
.3

6.7
5.1
1.6
1.3
.3

7.7
6.0
1.8
1.4
.3

7.8
6.0
1.8
1.4
.3

10.1
7.8
2.2
1.9
.3

-.5
-.9
.9
.8
1.0

2.5
2.6
2.2
2.0
3.5

3.8
3.8
3.7
4.0
2.0

Women, 16 years and o ld e r....

43.3

45.4

46.6

46.5

47.5

2.0

1.3

1.3

16 to 2 4 ....................................
16 to 19..................................
20 to 2 4 ..................................

10.5
3.7
6.8

7.9
2.6
5.3

7.6
2.7
4.9

7.4
2.6
4.8

7.3
2.4
5.0

-1.3
-1.9
-1.0

.7
1.3
.4

1.1
.3
1.4

25 to 5 4 ....................................
25 to 3 4 ..................................
35 to 4 4 ..................................
45 to 5 4 ..................................

27.4
12.2
8.8
6.4

32.4
12.4
12.1
7.9

32.6
10.0
12.0
10.6

32.5
10.1
11.8
10.7

31.1
10.1
10.0
11.0

3.3
1.7
4.9
3.6

1.1
-1.1
.9
4.1

.7
1.1
-.5
1.5

55 and older.............................
55 to 6 4 ..................................
65 and o ld e r...........................
65 to 7 4 ..................................
75 and older.........................

5.5
4.4
1.1
.9
.2

5.1
3.9
1.1
1.0
.2

6.5
5.2
1.3
1.1
.2

6.5
5.2
1.3
1.1
.2

9.0
7.3
1.7
1.4
.3

.7
.3
2.1
2.1
2.5

3.6
3.9
2.5
2.2
4.3

4.5
4.6
3.7
3.9
2.5

White, 16 years and o ld e r......
Men.........................................
Women...................................

87.2
50.0
37.2

85.0
47.0
38.0

83.2
45.1
38.1

82.9
45.1
37.9

80.3
43.5
36.8

1.2
.9
1.7

.9
.7
1.1

.8
.8
.9

2012

1 9 8 2 -9 2

19 92-2002

2 0 0 2 -1 2

See footnotes at end of table.


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004 49

Labor Force Projections

Table 5.

Continued—Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands]
P e rc e n t c h a n g e

C hange

Level

2002

G rou p
1992

1982

1990
census
weights

2000
census
weights

2012

1982-92

1 9 9 2 -2 0 0 2

2 0 0 2 -1 2

19 82-9 2

19 92-2002

2 0 0 2 -1 2

Black, 16 years
and o ld e r...........
Men...................
Women.............

11,331
5,804
5,527

14,162
6,997
7,166

16,834
7,745
9,089

16,564
7,793
8,771

19,765
9,318
10,447

2,831
1,193
1,639

2,672
748
1,923

3,201
1,525
1,676

25.0
20.6
29.7

18.9
10.7
26.8

19.3
19.6
19.1

Asian, 16 years
and older1...........
Men...................
Women.............

2,770
1,513
1,257

5,109
2,800
2,309

7,130
3,839
3,291

5,949
3,215
2,734

8,971
4,941
4,030

2,339
1,287
1,052

2,021
1,039
982

3,022
1,726
1,296

84.4
85.1
83.7

39.6
37.1
42.5

50.8
53.7
47.4

2,200
1,189
1,011

3,175
1,732
1,443

All other groups,
16 years
and o ld e r...........
Men...................
Women.............
Hispanic origin,
16 years
and o ld e r...........
Men..................
Women.............

44.3
45.7
42.7

975
543
432

6,734
4,148
2,586

11,338
6,900
4,439

16,200
9,273
6,927

17,942
10,609
7,332

23,785
13,674
10,111

4,604
2,752
1,853

4,862
2,373
2,488

5,843
3,065
2,779

68.4
66.3
71.7

42.9
34.4
56.0

32.6
28.9
37.9

Other than Hispanic
origin, 16 years
and o ld e r...........
Men...................
Women.............

103,470
58,302
45,169

116,767
63,064
53,702

126,334
66,779
59,555

126,921
66,891
60,031

138,484
71,577
66,906

13,297
4,762
8,533

9,567
3,715
5,853

11,562
4,686
6,875

12.9
8.2
18.9

8.2
5.9
10.9

9.1
7.0
11.5

White non-Hispanic,
16 years
and older..........
Men................
Women...........

89,630
51,121
38,508

98,724
53,984
44,740

103,360
55,489
47,871

103,348
55,340
48,008

106,237
56,849
49,388

9,094
2,862
6,232

4,636
1,505
3,130

2,889
1,509
1,380

10.1
5.6
16.2

4.7
2.8
7.0

2.8
2.7
2.9

18 to 36 28 to 46

38 to 56

38 to 56

48 to 66

Age of baby
boomers............

See footnotes at end of table.

to be the same as it was during the previous 10 years. Each of
the m ajor age groups— 16 to 24 years, 25 to 54 years, and 65
years and older— is expected to maintain or modestly increase
its participation rate. The participation rate of 20-to-24-yearold women continues to increase and is expected to reach
75.1 percent in 2012. It is projected that the labor force partici­
pation rates of women 25 to 34 years, 35 to 44 years, and, in
particular, 45 to 54 years also will increase over the projection
period.
The 55-to-64 age group, consisting of members of the
baby-boom generation, is projected to have the next-great­
est increase of a 5.4-percentage-point change in its labor force
participation rate.

over two periods: 1982-92 and 1992-2002. Over the 1982-92
period, larger numbers of the younger baby-boom generation
entering the labor force resulted in a high annual labor force
growth rate of 1.5 percent. At 1.1 percent, annual labor force
growth over the 1992-2002 period was much slower. The la­
bor force grew by nearly 18 million between 1982 and 1992
and by 14.4 million between 1992 and 2002. (See table 5.) The
m en’s labor force grew by 12 percent over the 1982-92 period
and then by 8.7 percent between 1992 and 2002. Women in­
creased their numbers in the labor force by 21.7 percent over
the 1982-92 period. This growth rate was reduced to 14.3
percent over the 1992-2002 period.

Age.
Historical c h a n g e s in th e la b o r fo rc e size
This section exam ines changes in the size of the labor force
50

Monthly Labor Review


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February 2004

Labor force changes by age over the 1982-92 period
were influenced by the baby boomers and the birth-dearth
group born in the late 1920s and early 1930s. The labor force

Continued—Civilian labor force by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
[Numbers in thousands]
Percent distribution

A n n u al grow th ra te (p e rc e n t)

2002

G rou p
1982

1992

1990
census
weights

Black, 16 years
and o ld e r.......................
Men...............................
Women.........................

10.3
5.3
5.0

11.1
5.5
5.6

11.8
5.4
6.4

11.4
5.4
6.1

12.2
5.7
6.4

2.3
1.9
2.6

1.7
1.0
2.4

1.8
1.8
1.8

Asian, 16 years
and older’........................
Men...............................
W om en........................

2.5
1.4
1.1

4.0
2.2
1.8

5.0
2.7
2.3

4.1
2.2
1.9

5.5
3.0
2.5

6.3
6.3
6.3

3.4
3.2
3.6

4.2
4.4
4.0

1.5
.8
.7

2.0
1.1
.9

All other groups,
16 years and older2.......
Men...............................
W omen.........................

2000
census
weights

2012

19 82-9 2

1992-2 002

2 0 0 2 -1 2

3.7
3.8
3.6

Hispanic origin,
16 years and older.......
M e n .............................
W omen........................

6.1
3.8
2.3

8.9
5.4
3.5

11.4
6.5
4.9

12.4
7.3
5.1

14.7
8.4
6.2

5.3
5.2
5.6

3.6
3.0
4.5

2.9
2.6
3.3

Other than Hispanic origin,
16 years and older.......
Men..............................
Women.........................

93.9
52.9
41.0

91.1
49.2
41.9

88.6
46.9
41.8

87.6
46.2
41.4

85.3
44.1
41.2

1.2
.8
1.7

.8
.6
1.0

.9
.7
1.1

White non-Hispanic,
16 years and older.......
Men..............................
Women.........................

81.3
46.4
34.9

77.1
42.1
34.9

72.5
38.9
33.6

71.3
38.2
33.1

65.5
35.0
30.4

1.0
.5
1.5

.5
.3
.7

.3
.3
.3

1 Data for 1982 and 1992 represent the “Asian and other” category with
1990 census weights. Data for 2002 with 1990 census weights represent the
“Asian and other category. Data for 2002 with 2000 census weights represent
the “Asian only” category. Data for 2012 represent the “Asian only” category
with 2000 census weights.

2 The “All other groups” category includes those reporting the racial
categories of (1 a) American Indian and Alaska Native or (1 b) Native Hawaiian
and Other Pacific Islanders and those reporting (2) two or more races. The
category was not defined prior to 2003. Data for 2002 were calculated by bls.

growth of the baby boomers during 1982-92 was affected by
both population growth and the rapid increases in wom en’s
labor force participation rates.
Between 1982 and 1992, the 25-to-54 age group grew by
more than 20.9 million. Those aged 25 to 34 increased by 4
million, those 35 to 44 by more than 11.5 million, and those 45
to 54 by more than 5 million. Over the 1992-2002 period, the
age group with the greatest change was those 45 to 54 years,
with 9.9 million workers.
The baby bust that followed the baby boom caused a drop
in the labor force of those aged 16 to 24 during the 1982-92
period and also of those aged 25 to 34 in 1992-2002. It is
projected that this segment o f the labor force will again de­
crease (by 2.5 million) in the 2002-12 labor force.

participation rates declined while w om en’s increased. As a
result, the labor force growth of men was slower than that of
women in both the 1982-92 and 1992-2002 periods, whether
measured by numbers of persons or rates of change. The
population and labor force of post-baby-boom cohorts aged
16 to 24 years decreased for both men and women in the
1982-92 period. The labor force of young women aged 16 to
24 years dropped more than that for young men (12.5 percent,
compared with 11.9 percent).
In 1992, the baby-boom generation was in the 25-to-54year-old age group. The labor force of men in this age group
soared by 23.6 percent over the 1982 figure. Meanwhile, the
labor force of women in the same age group expanded even
more rapidly, by 37.8 percent. Overall, however, the labor force
growth of baby boomers during 1992 to 2002 was markedly
lower than in the 1982-92 period.
From 1982 to 1992, both the population and the labor force

Sex. Although population growth was similar for both sexes
during the 1982-92 and 1992-2002 periods, m en’s labor force


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Monthly Labor Review

February 2004 51

Labor Force Projections

participation of men between the ages of 55 and 64 years
decreased. Consequently, the labor force o f men aged 55 to 64
dropped by 8.7 percent. During the same period, the popula­
tion of women in the same age group dropped by 0.8 percent,
but because their participation rates increased by 4.7 percent,
their labor force population increased by 3.0 percent.
During 1992-2002, the m en’s population grew nearly as
much as in the previous decade. M en’s participation rates
declined across all age groups, except those aged 55 and
older; as a result, the labor force of men continued to shrink.
Women continued to experience rising labor force participa­
tion for all age groups, and as a result, their labor force still
exhibited considerable growth.

of the younger members of the baby-boom generation, is ex­
pected to increase at a slower rate than earlier.
The labor force of workers 55 and older is anticipated to
grow by more than 10.2 million by 2012, the fastest growth
among all age groups. W ithin that group, the 55-to-64-yearolds are expected to add 8.3 million to the labor force.

Sex. The m en’s labor force is projected to grow by 1.0 per­
cent annually during 2002-12, while that of women is expected
to grow by 1.3 percent per year. Because of the differential
growth rates, w om en’s share of the labor force is projected to
increase from 46.5 percent to 47.5 percent.

Race and Hispanic origin. Hispanics are projected to grow
Race and Hispanic origin.

W hite non-Hispanics were the
largest group in the labor force in 1982 and 1992, accounting
for 81 percent and 77 percent o f the total, respectively. This
group accounted for 71 percent of the total labor force in
2002. Hispanics increased their share from 8.9 percent in 1992
to 12.4 percent in 2002. Blacks’ share of the labor force increased
from 10.3 percent in 1982 to 11.1 percent in 2002. In 1982 and 1992,
the category of “Asians and others” had the smallest share of
the civilian noninstitutional population, but also had the fastest
labor force growth rate. As noted before, in Census 2000, the
Asians in “Asians and others” became a separate group named
“Asian only.” As a result, the new “All other” racial group now
includes Native Americans, Alaska Natives, Hawaiian and Pa­
cific Islanders, and those identifying themselves as having a
multiple racial heritage. The category of “Asians and others”
was the fastest-growing racial group in the past, and that of
“Asian only” is expected to be in the future.

2.9 percent annually over the 2002-12 period and total about
24 million, or 14.7 percent of the labor force, in 2012.
The new “Asian only” racial group is not directly com pa­
rable to the “Asian and other” group in terms of historical
data. The category of “Asians only” is expected to be the
fastest-growing segment of the labor force. As was noted
earlier, the data for 1982 and 1992 represent the “Asian and
other” racial category with 1990 census weights. The data for
2002 and 2012, by contrast, represent the “Asian only” racial
category with 2000 census weights.
The black labor force is projected to have an annual growth
rate of 1.8 percent from 2002 to 2012 and is expected to reach
19.8 million the latter year.
The white non-Hispanic group will grow at a meager 0.3
percent, but will still remain the most populous group in 2012.
The group’s labor force is anticipated to grow by 2.8 million
between 2002 and 2012, while its share is expected to drop
from 71.3 percent to 65.5 percent over the period.

P ro jec te d c h a n g e s in th e lab o r fo rc e
D y n a m ic s
During 2002-12, the various age, sex, racial, and ethnic groups
will experience different rates of change in their populations,
leading to significant changes in the composition of the labor
force. The total labor force is projected to grow by 1.1 percent
annually and reach 162.3 million in 2012.

Age.

The youth labor force stood at 22.4 million in 2002 and
is projected to grow by 2 million, to 24.4 million, by 2012. The
increase is significantly more than that posted in the previous
decade. For the labor force aged 25 to 54 years, the projected
increase is 5.1 million, significantly less than the increase over
the 1992-2002 period. The labor force size of those aged 25 to
34 dropped by 4.5 million over the 1992-2002 period, but is
expected to increase by 3.2 million in the 2002-12 period. The
35-to-44-year age group, which increased by 3.0 million dur­
ing the 1992-2002 period, is projected to drop by 2.5 million
from 2002 to 2012, an effect of the baby bust following the
baby-boom expansion. The 45-to-54-year age group, made up
52

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February 2004

From 2002 through 2012, the dynamics of labor force change
emerge from three distinct groups: entrants— those who will
be in the labor force in 2012, but who were not in it in 2002;
leavers— those who will exit the labor force after 2002 and
before 2012; and stayers— those who were in the labor force
in 2002 and will remain through 2012.10 To the extent that the
demographic composition of labor force entrants between
2002 and 2012 is different from the composition of those now
in the labor force, the 2012 labor force will be different from
today’s labor force. The labor force also will affected by the
demographic composition of those leaving it. Thus, the labor
force of 2012 may be regarded as consisting of the labor force
of 2002, plus the entrants, less the leavers.
The Bureau of Labor Statistics projects that, between 2002
and 2012,40.5 million workers will enter the labor force and 23
million will leave. (See table 6.) These figures compare with
33.5 million entrants and 19 million leavers over the 1992-2002

Civilian labor force, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012, and entrants and leavers, 1992-2002 and projected
2002-12
[Numbers in thousands]

G ro u p

2002— 2012

2002

1992-2002
1992
Entrants

Leavers

Stayers

1990
census
weights

2012

2000
census
weights

Entrants

Leavers

S tayers

Number,
16 y e a rs and o ld er

Total............................
Men...........................
Women.....................

128,105
69,964
58,141

33,527
17,183
16,344

19,098
11,095
8,003

109,007
58,869
50,139

142,534
76,052
66,481

144,863
77,500
67,363

40,461
20,539
19,922

23,055
12,788
10,267

121,808
64,712
57,096

162,269
85,252
77,017

W hite..........................
Men...........................
Women.....................

108,837
60,168
48,669

26,250
13,826
12,423

16,516
9,753
6,763

92,321
50,415
41,906

118,569
64,241
54,328

120,150
65,308
54,842

31,019
16,691
14,327

20,811
11,407
9,403

99,339
53,901
45,439

130,358
70,592
59,766

Black..........................
Men...........................
Women.....................

14,162
6,997
7,165

4,782
2,078
2,704

2,111
1,103
1,008

12,051
5,894
6,157

16,834
7,745
9,089

16,564
7,793
8,771

5,538
2,671
2,868

2,338
1,146
1,192

14,226
6,647
7,579

19,765
9,318
10,447

Asian'..........................
Men...........................
Women.....................

5,106
2,800
2,306

2,538
1,291
1,247

516
252
264

4,593
2,548
2,045

7,130
3,839
3,291

5,949
3,215
2,734

1,783
853
928

1,771
997
775

4,178
2,218
1,959

8,971
4,941
4,030
3,175
1,732
1,443

2,200
1,189
1,011

All other groups2 .......
Men..........................
Women.....................
Hispanic origin ..........
Men...........................
Women.....................

11,338
6,900
4,438

6,029
3,214
2,815

1,170
843
327

10,168
6,057
4,111

16,200
9,273
6,927

17,941
10,609
7,332

7,866
4,335
3,531

2,022
1,270
751

15,919
9,339
6,581

23,785
13,674
10,111

Other than Hispanic...
Men...........................
Women.....................

116,767
63,064
53,703

27,499
13,970
13,529

17,928
10,252
7,675

98,839
52,812
46,028

126,334
66,779
59,555

126,922
66,891
60,031

32,595
16,204
16,391

21,034
11,518
9,516

105,889
55,374
50,515

138,484
71,577
66,906

Total............................
Men...........................
Women.....................

100.0
54.6
45.4

100.0
51.3
48.7

100.0
58.1
41.9

100.0
54.0
46.0

100.0
53.4
46.6

100.0
53.5
46.5

100.0
50.8
49.2

100.0
55.5
44.5

100.0
53.1
46.9

100.0
52.5
47.5

W hite.........................
M e n .........................
W omen....................

85.0
47.0
38.0

78.3
41.2
37.1

86.5
51.1
35.4

84.7
46.2
38.4

83.2
45.1
38.1

82.9
45.1
37.9

76.7
41.3
35.4

90.3
49.5
40.8

81.6
44.3
37.3

80.3
43.5
36.8

Black..........................
Men...........................
Women.....................

11.1
5.5
5.6

14.3
6.2
8.1

11.1
5.8
5.3

11.1
5.4
5.6

11.8
5.4
6.4

11.4
5.4
6.1

13.7
6.6
7.1

10.1
5.0
5.2

11.7
5.5
6.2

12.2
5.7
6.4

Asian1..........................
Men...........................
Women.....................

4.0
2.2
1.8

7.6
3.9
3.7

2.7
1.3
1.4

4.2
2.3
1.9

5.0
2.7
2.3

4.1
2.2
1.9

4.4
2.1
2.3

7.7
4.3
3.4

3.4
1.8
1.6

5.5
3.0
2.5

S h a re (p ercen t),
16 y e a rs and older

2.0
1.1
.9

1.5
.8
.7

All other groups2 .......
Men...........................
Women.....................
Hispanic origin ..........
Men...........................
Women.....................

8.9
5.4
3.5

18.0
9.6
8.4

6.1
4.4
1.7

9.3
5.6
3.8

11.4
6.5
4.9

12.4
7.3
5.1

19.4
10.7
8.7

8.8
5.5
3.3

13.1
7.7
5.4

14.7
8.4
6.2

Other than Hispanic...
Men...........................
Women.....................

91.1
49.2
41.9

82.0
41.7
40.4

93.9
53.7
40.2

90.7
48.4
42.2

88.6
46.9
41.8

87.6
46.2
41.4

80.6
40.0
40.5

91.2
50.0
41.3

86.9
45.5
41.5

85.3
44.1
41.2

' Data for 1982 and 1992 represent the “Asian and other category with
1990 census weights. Data for 2002 with 1990 census weights represent the
“Asian and other” category. Data for 2002 with 2000 census weights represent
the “Asian only” category. Data for 2012 represent the “Asian only” category
with 2000 census weights.


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2
The “All other groups” category includes those reporting the racial
categories of (1a) American Indian and Alaska Native or (1 b) Native Hawaiian
and Other Pacific Islanders and those reporting (2) two or more races. The
category was not defined prior to 2003. Data for 2002 were calculated by
BLS.

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004 53

Labor Force Projections

period. Between 1992 and 2002, entrants were more likely to
be men. Leavers also were more likely to be men, because the
m en’s labor force was, and is, older than the w om en’s. How­
ever, the difference in share exhibited for the 1992-2002 pe­
riod is projected to narrow somewhat, resulting in an almost
equal share of women and men entering the labor force.
According to the BLS projections, by 2012,20.5 million men
will have joined the 2002 men's labor force of 77.5 million, and
12.8 m illion m en will have left the labor force, resulting in a
labor force of 85 million men in 2012. Similarly, nearly 20 mil­
lion women are expected to enter the labor force over the
2002-12 period, while 10 million women are projected to leave.
The relatively smaller number of women leaving the labor
force will raise their share from 46.5 percent in 2002 to 47.5
percent in 2012.
The largest share of the 2002 labor force— 83 percent—
was made up of whites. More than 76 percent of the popula­
tion expected to enter the labor force between 2002 and 2012
are projected to be whites, smaller than their 78.3-percent
share o f entrants over the 1992-2002 period. These propor­
tions also are smaller than w hites’ share of the workforce,
reflecting the group’s lower population growth. As a result of
the 31 m illion whites entering the labor force and the 20.8
million leaving over the 2002-12 period, the share of whites in
the labor force is projected to be 80 percent in 2012— a drop of
4.7 percentage points from 1992. In the 1992-2002 period,
white men supplied the most entrants— 41 percent. However,
they also supplied most of those leaving— 50 percent.
The w hite labor force is projected to have an annual
grow th rate of 0.8 percent, less than that of the overall labor
force. The slower grow th reflects little m igration o f this de­
m ographic group to the U nited States and low er birthrates
in the past, com pared with other population groups. This
com bination results in relatively few er labor force entrants

Table 7.

and relatively more labor force leavers— a reflection of the ag­
ing white male labor force. White women are projected to in­
crease their participation more than any other group, but this
faster growth rate will not be enough to offset the slow growth of
their labor force of only 0.9 percent per year.
Blacks are projected to make up 12.2 percent of the labor
force, or a total of 19.8 million, in 2012. Blacks are expected to
add 5.5 million entrants to the labor force between 2002 and
2012— 13.7 percent of all new entrants during the period and
less than the 14.3 percent that entered between 1992 and 2002.
With the 2.3 million blacks projected to leave the labor force
over the period, the group will increase in number, and by
2012, the black share of the labor force is expected to be 12.2
percent, up 1.1 percentage point from the 2002 figure. The
black labor force is anticipated to grow faster than the overall
labor force because of the higher-than-average population
growth of blacks resulting primarily from higher-than-aver­
age birthrates.
In 2002, Hispanics represented 12.4 percent of the labor
force, with nearly 18 million workers. Because of their higher
levels of migration, nearly 8 million Hispanics are projected to
enter the labor force during the 2002-12 period. Reflecting
their relatively young age composition, only 2 million Hispan­
ics are expected to leave the labor force, so the number of
Hispanics in the labor force is projected to grow by more than
5.8 million. By 2012, the Hispanic labor force is anticipated to
reach 23.8 million, 4 million more than the black labor force.
The Hispanic share of the labor force is expected to grow
both because of overall population growth— from higher birth
levels and increased migration— and because of increases in
the participation rate of Hispanic women.
In 2002, the Asian labor force totaled 6 million. About 1.8
million members of this group are expected to enter the labor
force during the 2002-12 period, and a sim ilar num ber are

Median ages of the labor force, by sex, race, and Hispanic origin, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012

1982

1992

2002

2012

Total, 16 years and older...........................
Men.........................................................
Women....................................................

34.6
35.1
33.9

36.6
36.7
36.4

40.0
39.9
40.1

41.4
41.2
41.5

W h ite ......................................................
B la ck......................................................
Asian1......................................................

34.8
33.3
33.8

36.8
34.9
36.5

40.4
38.0
38.4

42.2
39.1
40.9

Hispanic origin........................................
White non-Hispanic................................

30.7
35.2

33.2
37.7

34.2
41.4

36.6
43.2

G ro u p

The “Asian” racial group corresponds to the "Asian and other" racial group prior to Census 2000.

54

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February 2004

Table 8.

Distribution of the population and labor force by age and sex, 1982, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012

[In percent]
Labor fo rc e

Population
G rou p
1982

1992

2002

2012

1982

1992

2002

2012

Total, 16 years and older..........
16 to 2 4 ....................................
25 to 3 9 ....................................
40 and o ld e r.............................
65 and older...........................
75 and older.........................

100.0
21.3
31.2
47.6
14.7
5.5

100.0
17.0
32.8
50.2
15.7
6.3

100.0
16.2
27.5
56.3
15.4
7.2

100.0
15.7
25.1
59.2
16.7
7.2

100.0
22.3
39.5
38.1
2.3
.4

100.0
16.9
41.5
41.6
2.3
.4

100.0
15.7
34.6
50.0
2.5
.6

100.0
15.0
31.8
52.9
3.3
.6

Men, 16 years and o ld e r..........
16 to 2 4 ....................................
25 to 3 9 ....................................
40 and o ld e r.............................
65 and older...........................
75 and older.........................

100.0
22.1
32.1
45.8
12.7
4.3

100.0
17.7
33.7
48.6
13.5
4.9

100.0
17.0
28.2
54.8
13.6
5.8

100.0
16.3
25.8
57.9
15.0
5.9

100.0
20.9
39.9
39.2
3.0
.5

100.0
16.5
41.8
41.8
2.9
.5

100.0
15.0
35.2
49.8
3.3
.6

100.0
14.6
32.7
52.7
4.3
.7

Women, 16 years and o ld e r.....
16 to 2 4 ....................................
25 to 3 9 ....................................
40 and o ld e r.............................
65 and older...........................
75 and older.........................

100.0
20.5
30.4
49.2
16.5
6.7

100.0
16.3
32.0
51.8
17.6
7.6

100.0
15.6
26.8
57.6
17.3
8.6

100.0
15.1
24.5
60.4
18.3
8.4

100.0
24.2
39.1
36.7
2.5
.3

100.0
17.4
41.2
41.5
2.5
.4

100.0
15.9
36.1
50.3
2.9
.5

100.0
15.5
31.2
53.4
3.6
.6

projected to leave, so the group is expected to number nearly
9 million by 2012.

The a g in g lab o r fo rc e
Median age.

M edian age is one o f the various ways by
which the age of the labor force can be measured. The me­
dian age o f the labor force was at a peak level in 1962 at 40.5
years. As the baby-boom generation entered the labor force,
the median age of the labor force decreased steadily until
1980; since then, as the baby boomers have aged, so has the
labor force. With both the population and the labor force
aging, the median age o f the labor force in 2012 is projected
to exceed the level reached in 1962. (See table 7.) The follow­
ing tabulation gives median ages for the civilian noninstitutional population and labor force aged 16 years and older:

1992
Population.....................
Labor force....................
Difference......................

40.1
36.6
3.5

2002

2012

40.3
40.0
.3

45.3
41.4
3.9

The median age of both groups is increasing, but the median
age of the population was increasing more than that of the labor
force between 1992 and 2002. Over the 2002-12 period, the
median age of the population is expected to rise by 5.0 years,
while the median age of the labor force is projected to increase
by 1.4 years. The median age of the labor force is less than that
of the population because the labor force participation rates of


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older persons are much lower than the rates of young workers.
The growth of the older population, combined with the increase
in the group’s participation rates, resulted in the projected in­
crease by 1.4 years in the median age of the 2012 labor force,
exceeding the highest level ever recorded, in 1962.
Historically, white non-Hispanic labor force participants have
been older than the rest of the labor force. This disparity is
projected to continue and reach 1.8 years in 2012. Compared
with whites, the black and Hispanic segments of the labor
force both are younger and have higher fertility rates. As a
result, young black and Hispanic workers— those between 16
and 24 years— are expected to increase the shares of their
respective labor forces. Black participants in the labor force
have been about 1.5 to 3.1 years younger than the overall
labor force— a gap that is projected to continue through 2012.
In 2002, the median age of Asian labor force participants was 1.6
years less than that of the overall labor force; the difference is
expected to decrease to 0.5 year by 2012. Hispanic participants
generally have been younger, due to their higher fertility rate.
Hispanics are projected to continue having a lower median
age than that of the overall labor force, but to age from a median
of 34.2 years in 2002 to 36.6 years in 2012, reflecting the aging of
earlier immigrants. The median ages of all racial and Hispanic
groups are expected to increase during the 2002-12 period.

Age composition.

Another way to measure the age of the labor
force is by looking into its age structure. The labor force is get­
ting older if the proportion of the 55-and-older or the 65-and-older
Monthly Labor Review

February 2004 55

Labor Force Projections

age group in it is increasing or if the share of those under 25 is
decreasing. Table 8 presents such information for the population
and labor force aged 16 and older, by sex and age groups.
From 1982 to 2002, the proportion of those 65 and older in the
population increased. This proportion is expected to rise to
16.7 percent by 2012. The proportion of persons 16 to 24 years
in the labor force decreased over the 1982-2002 period and is
expected to decline further, to 15.7 percent by 2012. Accord­
ingly, on the basis of both the median age and the age struc­
ture of the labor force, the population is getting older. Since 1992,
the proportion of 25-to-39-year-olds has decreased, and it is
expected to continue decreasing through 2012.
Looking at the composition of the population by sex, one
sees that the same general patterns hold. However, the male
population has proportionately more youths than the female
population, reflecting m en ’s higher proportion of births,
slightly higher current migration, and higher mortality. Rela­
tively more women are in the older ages.

Economic dependency.

The economic dependency ratio is
the number of persons in the total population (including the
Armed Forces overseas and children) who are not in the labor
force per 100 of those who are in the labor force. The following
tabulation shows the economic dependency ratio by age for
selected years from 1975 to 2002 and for 2012 (projected):
T otal
Y ear

1975 ...................
1980...................
1985 ...................
1990...................
1995 ...................
2000...................
2002...................
2012...................

p o p u la tio n

126.3
108.9
103.3
98.3
96.6
95.4
91.7
85.0

U n der

1 6 to 6 4

65 years

16 years

years

a n d o ld e r

44.2
37.4
34.2
30.5
25.7
25.9
26.9
25.9

20.7
20.8
21.8
22.1
22.3
21.9
21.2
20.1

61.4
50.7
47.3
45.8
48.6
45.3
43.6
38.9

For every 100 persons in the 2002 labor force, about 92 were
not. O f the 92, 44 were children, 27 were 16 to 64 years of
age, and 21 were 65 years and older.
In 1987, for the first time ever, more Americans were in the

labor force than were not. This trend is expected to continue
throughout the entire projection period, with the estimated num­
ber of persons not working falling to 85 per 100 workers in 2012.
Over the last three decades, as the number of births dimin­
ished and the baby boomers moved to ages older than 16, the
economic dependency ratio dropped. M ost of the 34-percentage-point drop for the total population between 1975 and 2002
stemmed from the decline in the number of births. The portion
of the ratio attributed to children is projected to continue
dropping, despite somewhat higher fertility. The remainder of
the historical drop is attributable to higher labor force partici­
pation among women aged 16 to 64 years. The ratio for this
group dropped 17.3 points, from 44.2 in 1975 to 26.9 in 2002.
The ratio is projected to continue decreasing and reach 25.9
in 2012.
The part of the dependency ratio that had been steadily
increasing is the portion attributable to older persons (those
65 years and older). In 1975, this was by far the smallest part
of the dependency ratio, and it is expected to still be the small­
est proportion by 2012. However, between 1975 and 1990, the
older persons’ dependency ratio grew 1.4 percentage points.
It fell again in 2002, to 21.2 per 100, representing the entry of
the birth dearth of the 1930s into the 65-and-older group. The
dependency of this group is expected to decline further, to
20.1 in 2012.
The

l a b o r f o r c e in

2012 is

ex pec ted to be o lder a n d

t o b e c o m e m o r e d i v e r s e . With

the aging of the baby-boom
generation, the workforce is projected to grow older. The me­
dian age of the labor force is expected to rise; the projected age
of 41.4 for 2012 would exceed the highest level ever recorded.
Hispanics are anticipated to become the largest minority group
in the labor force, and women will likely continue to participate
more. The dependency ratio is projected to continue to decline
and is expected to reach 85 people not working per 100 people
working. Between 2002 and 2012, nearly 122 million workers are
expected to remain in the labor force, 40 million workers to enter,
and 23 million to leave. As a result, the labor force of 2012 would
be 162.3 million—up 17.4 million from the 2000 level. The increase
represents a continuation of the 1992-2002 growth rate.
□

Notes
1 The civilian labor force consists of employed and unemployedthe time-series projections for a given group appear inconsistent with
persons actively seeking work, but does not include any Armed Forces
the results o f cross-sectional and cohort analyses. This second step
personnel. Historical data for this series are from the Current Popula­ ensures consistency in the projections across the various demographic
tion Survey, conducted by the U.S. Census Bureau for the Bureau of groups. For further information, see Handbook of Methods (Bureau of
Labor Statistics.
Labor Statistics, 1999), Chapter 13, “Employment Projection”; on
the Internet at http://stats.bls.gov/opub/hom /hom chl3_a.htm .
2
Projections of labor force participation rates for 136 age, sex,
race, and Hispanic-origin groups are developed by first estimating a
3
Frederick W. Hollmann, Tammany J. Mulder, and Jeffrey E.
trend rate o f change, usually based on participation rate behavior Kalian, “Population Projections o f the United States: 1999 to 2100:
during the previous 8-year period. Then the rate is modified whenever Methodology and Assumptions,” working paper no. 38 (U.S. Depart56

Monthly Labor Review


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

ment o f Commerce, Bureau of the Census, 1999).

8 Thomas P. Burke, “Social Security earnings limit removed” (Bu­
reau of Labor Statistics, Office of Compensation and Working Condi­
4
More information on the change in racial categories is availabletions, summer 2001).
on the Census Bureau website, http://www.census.gov/Press-Re-

lease/w w w /2001/raceqandas.htm l.
5 The c p s is a monthly survey conducted by the Census Bureau for
the Bureau o f Labor Statistics. The survey provides statistics on the
labor force status of the civilian noninstitutional population 16 years
of age and older and is collected from a probability sample of approxi­
mately 60,000 households.
6 For a discussion of theories of migration, see Douglass S. Massey,
Joaquin Arango, Graeme Hugo, Ali Kouaouci, Adela Pellegrino, and J.
Edward Taylor, “Theories o f International Migration: A Review and
Appraisal,” Population and Development Review, September 1993,
pp. 4 3 1 -6 6 .
7 See Alicia Munnell, Kevin E. Cahill, and Natalia A. Jivan, How
Has the Shift to 401 ks Affected the Retirement Age? no. 13 (Boston,
Center for Retirement Research at Boston College, September 2003).


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9 Normal Retirement Age (Social Security Administration, Dec. 4,
2000); on the Internet at http://www.ssa.gov/retirement/nra.html
(last visited Feb. 4, 2004).
10 The numbers of entrants and leavers are computed by comparing
the labor force numbers for a given birth cohort at two points in time.
If the numbers at the second point are larger, the difference is termed
the entrants; if the numbers at the second point are smaller, the differ­
ence is the leavers. These concepts understate the numbers likely to
enter and leave the labor force over the period covered by the two
points in time, but are still a valid comparison. As with measures of
geographic mobility, which also do not measure all the changes over a
period, we do not call the two groups net entrants and leavers. For
a further discussion of the methods involved, see Howard N Fuller­
ton, Jr., “Measuring Rates o f Labor Force Dynam ics,” Proceedings
o f the Social Statistics Section, American Statistical A ssociation,
1993.

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004 57

Industry Output and Employment

Employmenl outloolc 2002-12

Industry output and employment
projections to 2012
Employment in the dominant service-providing sector
is expected to grow at a slower pace
than in the 1992-2002 period,
thereby slowing the projected growth in total employment

Jay M. Berman

T

Jay M, Berman is an
economist In the
Division of Industry
Employment Projec­
tions, Office of
Occupational
Statistics and Employ­
ment Projections,
Bureau of Labor
Statistics. E-mail:
Berman_J@bls.gov.
58 Monthly Labor Review

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he Bureau of Labor Statistics projects
total employment in the United States
to increase by 21.3 million during the
2002-12 period, rising from 144.0 million to
165.3 million. This increase results in a pro­
jected annual growth rate of 1.4 percent, which
is slightly slower than the 1.6-percent rate of
growth experienced during the preceding de­
cade. The increase o f nonfarm wage and salary
jobs, from 131.1 million in 2002 to 152.7 million
in 2012, is expected to account for most of the
growth in total employment. The number of
nonfarm self-em ployed workers and unpaid
fam ily w orkers is expected to increase by
144,000. Countering these gains, agricultural
employment, which includes wage and salary
workers, the self-employed, and unpaid family
workers, is projected to decrease by 340,000 to
settle at 1.9 million by 2012. (See table 1.)
Real industry output is projected to expand
to $23.3 trillion by 2012, an increase of $6.4 tril­
lion from the $16.8 trillion level achieved in
2002.1This translates into a projected 3.3-per­
cent average annual growth rate and parallels
the rate of growth exhibited during the past
decade. Accounting for approximately 70.8 per­
cent o f the growth in total nominal output, the
service-providing industries are projected to
February

2004

reach $15.5 trillion by 2012. Even though out­
put in this sector is expected to grow by $4.5
trillion by 2012, its projected 3.5 percent growth
rate is slightly slower than that generated dur­
ing the past decade. This is contrasted against
the 3.0-percent annual growth expected by the
goods-producing sector, which is faster than
the historical 2.3 percent growth rate that this
sector experienced between 1992 and 2002. Even
with the relatively accelerated rate of output
growth in the goods-producing sector, exclud­
ing agriculture, its share of current-dollar total
output, however, will continue to decline from
31.4 percent in 1992 to 25.1 percent by 201 2.2
Annual output growth in agriculture is expected
to grow slightly from the previous 10-year period,
to 1.6 percent annually. Its share of total output,
however, will also decline, dropping from 2.2 per­
cent in 1992 to 1.3 in 2002. (See table 2.)
The aggregate picture of the 2002-12 economy
sets the projected labor force growth rate equiva­
lent to that of the previous 10-year period, as­
sumes a slower growth rate for g d p , and projects
output to continue to outpace labor force growth
due to productivity gains. Macroeconomic fac­
tors provide the foundation for the industry and
output projections and include the labor force and
demographic changes, G overnm ent defense

Table 1.

Employment by major industry sector, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
Thousands of jobs

Industry se cto r
1992

2002

2012

Total1............................................................

123,325

144,014

165,319

20,689

Nonfarm wage and salary.........................

109,526

131,063

152,690

Goods-produclng, excluding agriculture....
Mining....................................................
Construction..........................................
Manufacturing........................................

22,016
610
4,608
16,799

22,550
512
6,732
15,307

Service-providing.......................................
U tilities..................................................
Wholesale tra d e ....................................
Retail trade............................................
Transportation and warehousing..........
Information............................................
Financial activities................................
Professional and business services ....
Education and health services............
Leisure and hospitality.........................
Other services......................................
Federal Government..............................
State and local government.................

87,510
726
5,110
12,828
3,462
2,641
6,540
10,969
11,891
9,437
5,120
3,111
15,675

Agriculture?.................................................
Nonagriculture self-employed and unpaid
family workers.........................................
Secondary wage and salary job
in agricultural production, forestry,
fishing, and private household
industries3.................................................
Secondary jobs as a self-employed
or unpaid family worker4...........................

A v e ra g e
a n n u a l ra te
of c h a n g e

P ercen t
distribution

Change

1992-2002 2 0 0 2 -1 2

1992

2002

21,305

100.0

100.0

100.0

1.6

1.4

21,537

21,627

88.8

91.0

92.4

1.8

1.5

23,346
451
7,745
15,149

534
-98
2,124
-1,492

796
-61
1,014
-158

17.9
.5
3.7
13.6

15.7
.4
4.7
10.6

14.1
.3
4.7
9.2

.2
-1.7
3.9
-.9

.3
-1.3
1.4
-.1

108,513
600
5,641
15,047
4,205
3,420
7,843
16,010
16,184
11,969
6,105
2,767
18,722

129,344
565
6,279
17,129
5,120
4,052
8,806
20,876
21,329
14,104
7,065
2,779
21,240

21,003
-126
531
2,219
744
779
1,303
5,040
4,293
2,532
985
-344
3,047

20,831
-34
638
2,082
914
632
964
4,866
5,145
2,135
960
12
2,518

71.0
.6
4.1
10.4
2.8
2.1
5.3
8.9
9.6
7.7
4.2
2.5
12.7

75.3
.4
3.9
10.4
2.9
2.4
5.4
11.1
11.2
8.3
4.2
1.9
13.0

78.2
.3
3.8
10.4
3.1
2.5
5.3
12.6
12.9
8.5
4.3
1.7
12.8

2.2
-1.9
1.0
1.6
2.0
2.6
1.8
3.9
3.1
2.4
1.8
-1.2
1.8

1.8
-.6
1.1
1.3
2.0
1.7
1.2
2.7
2.8
1.7
1.5
.0
1.3

2,639

2,245

1,905

-394

-340

2.1

1.6

1.2

-1.6

-1.6

9,009

9,018

9,162

10

144

7.3

6.3

5.5

.0

.2

178

143

128

-35

-15

.1

.1

.1

-2.2

-1.1

1,973

1,545

1,434

-428

-111

1.6

1.1

.9

-2.4

-.7

2012

19 92-2002

2 0 0 2 -1 2

1 Employment data for wage and salary workers are from the bls Current
Employment Statistics (payroll) survey, which counts jobs, whereas self-em­
ployed, unpaid family workers, and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting are
from the Current Population Survey (household survey), which counts workers.

3Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agricultural produc­
tion, forestry, fishing, and private household industries.

2 Includes agricutlure, forestry, fishing, and hunting data from the Current
Population survey, except logging, which is from the Current Employment

4Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary job as a self-employed or
unpaid family worker.

spending and tax policies, foreign economic activity, busi­
ness investment decisions, personal consumption patterns,
and aggregate productivity trends.3

potential, followed by exports’ 5.7 percent. Expected to still
account for almost 70 percent of the econom y’s output, per­
sonal consumption expenditure is expected to grow at 2.8
percent over the projected period.

T e n -y e a r c o m p aris o n s
B ls projects the labor force to grow at an annual rate of 1.1
percent between 2002 and 2012. This mirrors the 1.1 -percent
growth rate experienced over the 1992-2002 period. The
growth rate of the nonfarm labor productivity index is pro­
jected to average 2.1 percent per year from 2002 to 2012, which
is about the same rate that was observed over the previous 10
years. Annual g d p growth is expected to marginally retreat
from its 3.2-percent rate over the 1992-2002 period to 3.0 per­
cent over the projection period. Fixed nonresidential invest­
ment, with a projected 6.6-percent annual rate of growth, is
expected to be the g d p component with the fastest growth


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Survey and government wage and salary workers, which are excluded.

Trends by sector and industry. Virtually all of the projected
employment growth in the economy will be posted by the
service-providing sector, reflecting its large relative size. Mak­
ing up 75.3 percent of total employment in 2002, this sector
will continue to enhance its dominance by almost eclipsing
the 130 million job mark by 2012 and increasing its share of
total employment to 78.2 percent. The goods-providing sec­
tor is expected to add 262,000 more jobs over the projected
period than it did over the past decade, for a total employment
level of 23.3 million jobs in 2012. However, its relatively slow
0.3-percent projected annual rate of growth is dwarfed by the
expected 1.8-percent pace and the 20.8 million jobs created by
Monthly Labor Review

February

2004

59

Industry Output and Employment

cent annually and slightly dipping below its 2002 level of 15.3
million. This is in contrast to the sharper average annual em­
ployment declines in manufacturing of almost 1.0 percent ex­
perienced during the previous, 1992-2002, decade when this
sector lost 1.5 million jobs. This trend is tempered by the fact
that 76 percent of this total decline, or 1.1 m illion jobs, oc­
curred during the recent 2001 recession.5Em ployment in the
mining industries is projected to continue its 1992-2002 his­
torical decline by shedding jobs at a 1.3-percent annual rate
to settle at 451,000 by 2012.
The limited employment growth in the goods-producing
sector is expected to take place despite strong growth in out­
put. Through productivity gains, output for the goods-pro­
ducing sector is projected to increase by 3.0 percent annu­
ally, which translates into $1.6 trillion in additional output.
Output generated by manufacturing industries, the dominant
goods-producing sector, is projected to expand by $1.5 tril­
lion to $5.4trillion in 2012. This sector’s projected 3.4 percent
average annual rate of growth in output augments the rela­
tively slower 1.7-percent projected growth rate for the con­
struction industry and rivals the 3.5-percent output growth
expected by the service-providing industries.

the service-providing sector. Three out of four jobs in the U.S.
economy are accounted for by the service-providing sector.4
Within the service-prodviding sector, education and health
services and professional and business services represent
the industry divisions with the strongest employment growth,
both in terms of absolute and percentage changes. Education
and health services is expected to grow at an average annual
rate of 2.8 percent and professional and business services is
projected to grow 2.7 percent— double the expected rate for
the economy as a whole, adding 5.1 million and 4.9 million
jobs respectively— both making up almost half of the total
employm ent increases that are expected by 2012. State and
local governm ent will be responsible for the econom y’s next
largest source of em ployment growth, increasing by 2.5 m il­
lion jobs. This sector’s employment will grow to 21.2 million
workers in 2012, while Federal Government employment is
expected to hold steady at its 2002 level o f 2.8 million jobs.
The construction industry, the only m ajor goods-producing sector expected to post positive employment growth, is
projected to increase by 1.0 million jobs, reaching 7.8 million
in 2012. Manufacturing employment is projected to show little
change over the projection period, declining by a mere 0.1 per­

1 Output by major industry sector (gross duplicated output), 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
Billions of c h a in e d 1996 dollars
Industry se cto r
1992

2002

Total...........................................

12,272.1

16,822.0

Goods-producing, excluding
agriculture...............................
Mining....................................
Construction..........................
Manufacturing.......................

3,766.9
154.9
547.1
3,066.7

A v e ra g e annual
ra te of c h a n a e

2 0 0 2 -1 2

2012

1992

2002

23,249.8

3.2

3.3

11,104.3

18,409.6

31,599.4

100.0

100.0

100.0

4,732.8
166.1
718.7
3,840.1

6,362.1
156.0
851.8
5,360.9

2.3
.7
2.8
2.3

3.0
-.6
1.7
3.4

3,491.1
139.1
475.6
2,876.4

4,904.5
158.8
865.5
3,880.3

7,917.6
208.0
1,204.9
6,504.7

31.4
1.3
4.3
25.9

26.6
.9
4.7
21.1

25.1
.7
3.8
20.6

7,682.1
278.0
600.3
666.9

11,052.4
267.2
1,025.3
1,013.1

15,542.4
320.3
1,622.5
1,420.0

3.7
-.4
5.5
4.3

3.5
1.8
4.7
3.4

6,878.4
262.1
559.4
609.8

12,352.2
302.4
951.0
1,064.9

22,360.8
460.0
1,898.2
1,993.9

61.9
2.4
5.0
5.5

67.1
1.6
5.2
5.8

70.8
1.5
6.0
6.3

436.4
481.3
1,524.7

575.7
891.2
2,229.8

819.6
1,498.2
3,037.5

2.8
6.4
3.9

3.6
5.3
3.1

448.0
439.5
1,340.0

685.4
965.3
2,497.9

1,183.3
1,981.0
4,315.4

4.0
4.0
12.1

3.7
5.2
13.6

3.7
6.3
13.7

1,063.3

1,778.3

2,669.4

5.3

4.1

934.6

2,089.2

4,136.8

8.4

11.3

13.1

813.9
441.2
298.3
394.2
685.3

1,087.5
592.3
381.7
377.7
838.9

1,476.3
797.2
505.6
443.4
980.4

2.9
3.0
2.5
-.4
2.0

3.1
3.0
2.9
1.6
1.6

707.7
400.4
268.7
299.1
609.1

1,289.7
687.9
444.1
376.4
998.0

2,455.0
1,160.8
739.7
542.9
1,493.7

6.4
3.6
2.4
2.7
5.5

7.0
3.7
2.4
2.0
5.4

7.8
3.7
2.3
1.7
4.7

Agriculture, forestry, fishing,
and hunting..............................
Special industries1.....................

273.8
550.3

299.6
704.1

351.6
908.3

.9
2.5

1.6
2.6

247.4
487.4

299.2
853.7

414.2
906.9

2.2
4.4

1.6
4.6

1.3
2.9

Residual2....................................

-1.0

33.2

84.6

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

.0

2012

1 Consists of nonproducing accounting categories to reconcile inputoutput system with ñipa accounts.

60 Monthly Labor Review

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February

2004

1992

P ercen t distribution

2002

Service-providing......................
Utilities....................................
Wholesale trade.....................
Retail trade..............................
Transportation and
warehousing..........................
Information..............................
Financial activities.................
Professional and business
se rv ic e s ................................
Education and health
services...............................
Leisure and hospitality..........
Other services........................
Federal government...............
State and local Government...

1992-02

Billions of dollars

2012

2 Residual is shown for the first level only. Subcategories do not necessarily add to higher categories as a byproduct of chainweighting.

_J

International comparisons.

Mirroring the trends in agricul­
ture production and productivity in the beginning of the last
century, output in the goods-producing industries and spe­
cifically manufacturing continued to grow, while employment
declined as productivity increased. As the following tabula­
tion illustrates, this phenomena is shared by most industrial­
ized countries:6

Average annual rates o f change,
1982-2002
Country

United States
United Kingdom
Italy
Japan

Manufacturing
employment

Manufacturing
output

-0.7
-2.1
-.9
-.9

3.0
13
1.8
23

The United Kingdom and Italy, examples of the industrial­
ized nations o f Europe, and Japan also experienced continual
productivity-led employment declines in their manufacturing
sectors. However, spurred by capital investments, advances
in technologies, and improvements in operational methods,
production was able to increase, while fewer workers were
required. On average, these four countries managed annual
output increases of 2.1 percent between 1982 and 2002. How­
ever, increasing labor productivity allowed these countries to
demand less labor— dropping by an average annual rate of
1.1 percent over the same 20-year period. Even though these
countries share similar employment patterns with the United
States, productivity levels in the United States have histori­
cally surpassed the rest of these countries— contributing to
this country’s historical higher rates o f output growth.
The U.S. economy, however, is expected to remain servicedominated as that sector’s output reaches $15.5 trillion by
2012. The goods-producing sector, alternatively, is expected
to generate $6.4 trillion in output by 2012. Mirroring their em­
ploym ent influence, 37.8 percent of the projected nominal
output for the service-providing industries will be attributed
to financial activities and professional and business services.
Highlighting this sector and setting the pace for the overall
economy, information industries are projected to post the fast­
est output growth with a 5.3 annual rate, reaching $ 1.5 trillion
by 2012.

S e rv ic e -p ro v id in g s ec to r
Information.

The fastest growing sector in the economy,
with a 5.3-percent projected output growth rate, is the infor­
mation sector, which provides publishing, Internet, cable, and
telecommunication services. Accounting for 39.8 percent of
this sector’s projected growth in output and 27.3 percent of
its total employment, telecommunications, except cable and


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other programming distribution is expected to grow by 4.9 per­
cent annually to reach $645 billion by 2012. Providing domestic
and international telephone communications, including cellular
services, this industry’s main demand sources will be advanced
technology and competition lowering prices for high-speed
Internet access and wireless telephone services, as well as de­
regulation expanding the breadth of offered residential telecom­
munication services. In addition, business demand is expected
to rise as companies increasingly rely on their telecommunica­
tion systems to conduct electronic commerce. This industry’s
employment gains, however, are expected to be limited by pro­
ductivity gains, as technological improvements such as fiber
optic lines and advanced switching equipment, increase the data
transmission capacity of telecommunication networks. Employ­
ment for this industry is projected to stabilize at its 2002 level of
1.1 million jobs. (See table 3.)
The softw are publishing industry is expected to be the
N ation’s fastest growing employer by 2012, with a projected
annual growth rate of 5.3 percent. (See table 4.) Even though
this represents a slowdown relative to the past decade, the
173.7 million more jobs created by this industry during the
projected period will be the result of firms continuing to in­
vest heavily in software. Such investments boost productiv­
ity, increase efficiencies, and have become the backbone of a
largely technology based economy. One of the fastest sources
of output growth is expected to come from the software pub­
lishing industry— an 8.4-percent increase in output.
Also resonating the information sector’s trend, the Internet
services, data processing, and other information services in­
dustry, is expected to be the third fastest and one of the larg­
est sources of output growth in the economy by 2012. (See
table 5.) Mainly providing Internet publishing and broadcast­
ing, general access, and search facilities, this industry’s out­
put is expected to reach $232.6 billion by 2012, reflecting an
increase of $145.7 billion and a 10.3-percent annual rate from
its 2002 level.

Professional and business services.

Adding 4.9 million jobs
at an average annual rate of 3.9 percent between 1992 and
2002, the professional and business services group was the
econom y’s largest and fastest growing sector. Jobs in this
industry cluster are projected to increase at a 2.7-percent an­
nual rate, to 20.9 million in 2012 from 16.0 million in 2002. De­
spite the relative slowdown in the rate of employment growth,
it is still expected to almost double the 1.4 percent posted by
the economy as a whole, which will m aintain its position as
one of the econom y’s fastest and largest source of job cre­
ation. With accompanying above-average output gains of 4.1
percent, rising by $891.1 billion to $2.7 trillion in 2012, this
industry group is also expected to be the largest source of
output growth in the service-providing sector.
Text continues on p . 70.

Monthly Labor Review

February

2004

61

Industry Output and Employment

M

Employment and output by industry, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
O u tpu t

E m p lo y m en t
20 0 2 NAICS

Industry

NA
21
211
212
2121
2122
2123
213
22
2211
2212
2213
23
31-33
311
3111
3112
3113
3114

3115
3116
3117
3118
3119
312
3121
3122
313
3131
3132
3133
314
3141
3149
315
3151
3152
3159

316
3161
3162

Nonagriculture wage
and salary1.........................
Mining.................................
Oil and gas extraction.......
Mining (except oil and gas)
Coal mining.........................
Metal ore mining................
Nonmetallic mineral mining
and quarrying..................
Support activities for mining
U tilities...............................
Electric power generation,
transmission,
and distribution ...............
Natural gas distribution.....
Water, sewage, and other
system s............................
Construction.......................

19 922002

2 0 0 2 -1 2

131,063 152,690
512
451
88
123
180
212
52
75
18
29

21,537
-98
-60
-60
-43
-21

21,627
-61
-34
-32
-23
-11

1.8
-1.7
-3.9
-2.5
-4.4
-5.2

2012

2002

1992

109,526
610
182
272
118
50

A v e ra g e
a n n u a l rate
of c h a n g e

Change

Thousands of jobs

19922002

A v e ra g e
a n n u a l rate
of c h a n g e

Billions of c h a in e d

1996 dollars

2 0 0 2 -1 2

2002

1992

19922002

2012

2 0 0 2 -1 2

1.5 11,448 15,818 21,973
156
166
155
-1.3
87
80
94
-3.2
54
52
47
-1.6
26
23
22
-3.5
11
10
11
-4.8

3.3
.7
-.7
1.4
1.8
-.6

3.3
-.6
-.9
-.5
-1.1
.8

104
156
726

108
177
600

110
183
565

3
22
-126

2
6
-34

.3
1.3
-1.9

.2
.3
-.6

14
14
278

18
24
267

17
26
320

2.1
5.3
-.4

-.5
.9
1.8

537
154

436
116

405
90

-101
-38

-31
-26

-2.1
-2.8

-.7
-2.5

207
66

207
53

254
58

.0
-2.1

2.0
.9

35
4,608

49
6,732

71
7,745

13
2,124

23
1,014

3.2
3.9

3.9
1.4

5
547

6
719

8
852

2.2
2.8

2.7
1.7

Manufacturing....................
Food manufacturing..........
Animal food manufacturing
Grain and oilseed milling....
Sugar and confectionery
product manufacturing.....
Fruit and vegetable
preserving and specialty
food manufacturing........
Dairy product manufacturing
Animal saughtering
and processing...............
Seafood product preparation
and packaging.................
Bakeries and tortilla
manufacturing.................

16,799
1,518
55
71

15,307
1,525
52
62

15,149
1,597
52
61

-1,492
7
-4
-9

-158
72
1
-1

-.9
.0
-.7
-1.3

-.1
.5
.1
-.1

3,067
384
25
49

3,840
437
30
57

5,361
517
38
70

2.3
1.3
2.1
1.6

3.4
1.7
2.2
2.0

103

83

80

-20

-3

-2.1

-.3

22

26

30

1.7

1.6

218
143

182
137

180
124

-36
-6

-2
-13

-1.8
-.4

-.1
-1.0

44
57

50
56

59
58

1.4
-.3

1.7
.4

438

520

601

83

80

1.7

1.4

98

118

144

1.9

2.0

55

44

40

-11

4

-2.3

-.8

8

7

8

-1.2

1.2

290

295

303

4

9

.1

.3

39

43

53

1.1

2.0

Other food manufacturing..
Beverage and tobacco
product manufacturing....
Beverage manufacturing ....
Tobacco manufacturing.....
Textile m ills.........................
Fiber, yarn, and thread
m ills ..................................
Fabric m ills .........................
Textile and fabric finishing
and fabric coating m ills....
Textle product m ills ...........
Textile furnishings m ills.....

146

152

155

5

4

.4

.2

44

51

59

1.5

1.5

209
165
44
479

206
172
33
293

179
158
20
157

-3
7
-10
-186

-27
-14
-13
-136

-.1
.4
-2.7
-4.8

-1.4
-.8
'4 8
-6.1

96
59
36
51

98
64
34
45

105
74
33
36

.3
.8
-.5
-1.4

.7
1.3
-.3
-2.2

97
256

64
147

37
80

-33
-109

-27
-67

-4.1
-5.4

-5.3
-5.9

12
26

22

8
21

-1.0
-1.7

-2.5
-.4

126
202
120

82
196
119

40
181
111

-44
-6
-1

-42
-16
-8

-4.2
-.3
-.1

-6.9
-.8
-.7

13
26
18

12
30
21

7
35
23

-1.0
1.4
1.8

-6.0
1.3
1.0

82
905
110

78
358
50

70
112
20

-5
-548
-60

-8
-246
-30

-.6
-8.9
-7.7

-1.1
-11.0
-8.7

9
64
10

9
50
6

11
23
2

.6
-2.4
-4.3

2.1
-7.6
-9.7

752

282

77

-470

-205

-9.4

-12.2

50

40

17

-2.2

-8.1

43

26

15

-17

-11

-4.8

-5.4

4

4

3I

-1.3

-1.5

121

50

33

-71

-17

-8.5

-4.0

10

8i

ei

-2.5

-2.6

3
5

3I

1
4i

-1.5
-3.6

-7.7
2.1

Other textile product mills .
Apparel manufacturing......
Apparel knitting m ills.........
Cut and sew apparel
manufacturing.................
Apparel accessories
and other apparel
manufacturing.................
Leather and allied product
manufacturing.................
Leather and hide tanning
and finishing....................
Footwear manufacturing....

15
72

See footnotes at end of table.

62 Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February

2004

9
21

5
18

-7
-51

4
4

-5.7
-11.5

-6.3
-1.8

h

c;

Table 3.

Continued— Employment and output by industry, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
Em ploym ent

2 0 0 2 N A IC S

3169
321
3211
3212

3219
322
3221
3222
323
324
325
3251
3252

3253
3254
3255
3256

3259
326
3261
3262
327
3271
3272
3273
3274
3279
331
3311

Industry

Other leather and allied
product manufacturing........
Wood product manufacturing..
Sawmills and wood
preservation .........................
Veneer, plywood, and
engineered wood product
manufacturing.......................
Other wood product
manufacturing.......................
Paper manufacturing..............
Pulp, paper, and paperboard
m ills......................................
Converted paper product
manufacturing.....................
Printing and related
support activities.................
Petroleum and coal
products manufacturing.......
Chemical manufacturing.........
Basic chemical
manufacturing.......................
Resin, synthetic rubber,
and artificial synthetic
fibers and filaments
manufacturing.......................
Pesticide, fertilizer,
and other agricultural
chemical manufacturing.......
Pharmaceutical and
medicine manufacturing.......
Paint, coating, and adhesive
manufacturing.......................
Soap, cleaning compound,
and toilet preparation
manufacturing.......................
Other chemical product
and preparation
manufacturing.......................
Plastics and rubber products
manufacturing......................
Plastics product
manufacturing.......................
Rubber product
manufacturing......................
Nonmetallic mineral
product manufacturing.........
Clay product and refractory
manufacturing.......................
Glass and glass product
manufacturing.......................
Cement and concrete
product manufacturing.......
Lime and gypsum product
manufacturing.......................
Other nonmetallic mineral
product manufacturing........
Primary metal manufacturing ..
Iron and steel mills and
ferroalloy manufacturing.......

Thousands of jobs

O u tp u t

A v e ra g e
a n n u a l ra te
of c h a n g e

Change
19922002

1992

2002

33
502

20
557

11
634

-13
55

-9
77

134

121

110

-13

88

116

138

280
640

320
550

232

2012

20 0 2 -1 2

19922002

A v e ra g e
an n u a l ra te
of c h a n g e

Billions of c h a in e d
1996 dollars

19 922002

2 0 0 2 -1 2

1992

-5.0
1.0

-5.9
1.3

3
73

2
83

1
112

-1.6
1.2

-7.7
3.0

-11

-1.0

-1.0

25

26

34

.6

2.7

28

21

2.8

1.7

17

20

26

1.8

2.6

386
477

39
-90

67
-72

1.3
-1.5

1.9
-1.4

32
146

37
141

52
144

1.5
-.4

3.4
.2

168

126

-63

—42

-3.1

-2.8

73

68

65

-.8

-.5

408

382

351

-26

-31

-.7

-.8

73

73

79

.0

.8

780

710

734

-70

24

-.9

.3

92

91

94

-.1

.3

152
1,029

119
930

102
891

-33
-99

-18
-38

-2.4
-1.0

-1.6
-.4

161
363

181
401

199
450

1.2
1.0

1.0
1.2

246

171

140

-76

-31

-3.6

-2.0

117

98

76

-1.8

-2.5

151

114

89

-37

-26

-2.8

-2.5

54

56

54

.4

-.4

54

45

35

-10

-10

-1.9

-2.4

23

19

22

-2.1

1.9

225

293

361

68

68

2.7

2.1

72

112

157

4.5

3.5

81

72

62

-8

-11

-1.1

-1.6

22

24

30

.8

2.1

127

122

125

-5

3

-.4

.3

43

52

64

1.8

2.0

144

112

79

-32

-33

-2.4

-3.4

34

36

42

.6

1.3

819

854

991

35

138

.4

1.5

122

164

245

3.0

4.1

620

668

797

48

128

.8

1.8

95

133

198

3.4

4.1

199

185

195

-14

10

-.7

.5

27

31

47

1.4

4.0

487

519

579

32

60

.6

1.1

69

85

114

2.1

2.9

79

72

80

-7

9

-.9

1.1

7

8

10

.2

3.2

145

126

125

-19

-1

-1.4

-.1

19

22

33

1.6

3.9

178

230

278

52

48

2.6

1.9

27

38

49

3.4

2.5

14

19

21

5

2

3.0

.9

4

5

6

1.6

2.1

72
630

72
511

75
494

0
-119

3
-17

.1
-2.1

.4
-.3

12
140

13
137

16
160

1.0
-.2

2.3
1.5

168

107

76

-61

-31

-4.4

-3.4

47

49

56

.4

1.4

2002

2012

2 0 0 2 -1 2

See footnotes at end of table.


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February

2004

63

Industry Output and Employment

Table 3.

Continued— Employment and output by industry, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
O u tp u t

E m p lo y m en t

3313
3314

3315
332
3321
3322
3323
3324
3325
3326
3327
3328

3329
333
3331
3332
3333
3334

3335
3336

3339
334
3341
3342
3343
3344
3345

See

Steel product manufacturing
66
from purchased s te e l............
Alumina and aluminum
100
production and processing ....
Nonferrous metal (except
aluminum) production
102
and processing.....................
196
Foundries..................................
Fabricated metal product
manufacturing........................ 1,497
122
Forging and stamping..............
Cutlery and handtool
73
manufacturing........................
Architectural and structural
327
metals manufacturing............
Boiler, tank, and shipping
108
container manufacturing.......
54
Hardware manufacturing..........
Spring and wire product
74
manufacturing........................
Machine shops; turned
product; and screw, nut,
287
and bolt manufacturing.........
Coating, engraving,
heat treating,
137
and allied activities...............

1992

-8

-.4

-.5

16

15

18

-.7

1.5

-19

-1

-2.1

-.2

29

25

26

-1.5

.3

80
199

-20
-16

-1
20

-2.2
-.9

-.2
1.0

26
21

22
25

21
38

-1.9
2.1

-.3
4.2

1,548
114

1,645
132

51
-9

97
18

.3
-.7

.6
1.5

186
18

226
23

315
36

2.0
2.6

3.4
4.5

65

70

-8

6

-1.2

.8

8

10

15

1.9

3.7

400

478

74

77

2.1

1.8

41

55

81

3.1

3.9

95
43

90
45

-13
-11

-5
3

-1.3
-2.3

-.5
.6

21
9

20
10

26
14

-.6
.8

2.6
3.9

71

59

-A

-12

-.5

-1.8

6

8

9

2.2

1.2

318

333

32

15

1.1

.5

29

41

62

3.7

4.2

148

151

11

4

.8

.2

12

16

25

2.8

4.4

296
1,237

287
1,357

-20
-72

—9
120

-.7
-.6

-.3
.9

42
186

43
230

49
341

.3
2.1

1.2
4.0

201

212

1

10

.0

.5

33

42

60

2.5

3.5

132

125

-10

-6

-.7

-.5

22

31

47

3.3

4.4

132

141

-6

9

-.5

.6

22

19

27

-1.3

3.6

167

189

7

22

.4

1.2

22

29

40

2.8

3.2

217

251

-24

34

-1.0

1.5

21

23

38

.9

4.9

100

100

-11

0

-1.0

.0

23

34

44

4.1

2.7

288

339

-29

51

-.9

1.6

43

51

84

1.7

5.2

1,521

1,333

-186

-189

-1.1

-1.3

225

557

1,705

9.5

11.8

250

182

-79

-68

-2.7

-3.1

28

263

2,292

24.9

24.2

191

201

-19

10

-.9

.5

45

100

26£

8.2

10.4

42

38

-16

-3

-3.2

-.8

8

9

1C

1.0

1.2

531

452

12

-79

.2

-1.6

67

134

14C

7.2

1.1

451

396

-98

-55

-1.9

-1.3

79

92

12C

1.4

3.2

Other general purpose
317
machinery manufacturing......
Computer and electronic
product manufacturing......... 1,707
Computer and peripheral
329
equipment manufacturing......
Communications equipment
210
manufacturing........................
Audio and video equipment
58
manufacturing........................
Semiconductor and other
electronic component
519
manufacturing........................
Navigational, measuring,
electromedical, and control
549
instruments manufacturing ....
footnotes at end of table.

64 Monthly Labor Review

February

19922002

2 0 0 2 -1 2

Other fabricated metal
316
product manufacturing..........
Machinery manufacturing........ 1,309
Agriculture, construction,
and mining machinery
201
manufacturing........................
Industrial machinery
142
manufacturing.......................
Commercial and service
industry machinery
138
manufacturing.......................
Ventilation, heating, airconditioning, and commercial
refrigeration equipment
161
manufacturing.......................
Metalworking machinery
241
manufacturing........................
Engine, turbine, and power
transmission equipment
111
manufacturing........................


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

A v e ra g e
an n u a l rate
of c h a n g e

19 922002

1992

3312

Billions of
c h a in e d 1996
dollars

A v e ra g e
a n n u a l ra te
of c h a n g e

C hange

Thousands of jobs

Industry

20 0 2 NA IC S

2004

2002

2012

19922002

63

60

-3

80

79

81
180

2 0 0 2 -1 2

2002

2012

20 02-1 2

Table 3.

Continued— Employment and output by industry, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
O u tp u t

Em ploym ent

20 02 NA IC S

3346

335

3351
3352
3353

3359

336
3361
3362
3363
3364
3365
3366
3369
337
3371
3372
3379
339
3391

Industry

Manufacturing and
reproducing magnetic
and optical m edia..............
Electrical equipment,
appliance, and component
manufacturing...................
Electric lighting equipment
manufacturing...................
Household appliance
manufacturing...................
Electrical equipment
manufacturing...................
Other electrical equipment
and component
manufacturing...................
Transportation equipment
manufacturing..................
Motor vehicle
manufacturing...................
Motor vehicle body
and trailer manufacturing...
Motor vehicle parts
manufacturing....................
Aerospace product
and parts manufacturing....
Railroad rolling stock
manufacturing....................
Ship and boat building.........
Other transportation
equipment manufacturing..
Furniture and related
product manufacturing.....
Household and institutional
furniture and kitchen
cabinet manufacturing.......
Office furniture (including
fixtures) manufacturing....
Other furniture related
product manufacturing......
Miscellaneous
manufacturing....................
Medical equipment
and supplies
manufacturing....................

Other miscellaneous
manufacturing....................
42
Wholesale tra d e ..................
44-45
Retail trade...........................
48,492, 493 Transportation and
warehousing.......................
Air transportation................
481
482
Rail transportation...............
Water transportation...........
483
484,492
Truck transportation
and couriers
and messengers................
Transit and ground
485
passenger
transportation....................

Thousands of jobs

A v e ra g e
an n u a l rate
of c h a n g e

Change

1992

2002

2012

19922002

44

57

63

13

580

499

486

74

72

106

19922002

2 0 0 2 -1 2

6

2.7

1.1

-81

-13

-1.5

70

-2

-2

98

84

-8

219

176

180

180

152

1,977

A v e ra g e
a n n u a l rate
of c h a n g e

Billions of
c h a in e d 1996
dollars

19 922002

2002

2012

8

7

9

-1.4

2.1

-.3

88

103

142

1.6

3.3

-.2

-.3

10

12

14

1.8

1.4

-14

-.8

-1.5

18

22

29

2.2

2.8

-43

4

-2.1

.2

26

29

46

.8

4.7

151

-28

-1

-1.7

-.1

33

41

54

1.9

2.9

1,829

1,787

-148

-41

-.8

-.2

462

600

802

2.6

3.0

260

267

251

7

-16

.3

-.6

166

236

319

3.6

3.1

126

154

172

28

18

2.0

1.1

15

22

39

3.7

5.7

661

731

758

70

27

1.0

.4

115

187

275

5.0

3.9

711

468

386

-242

-83

-4.1

-1.9

138

116

117

-1.7

.1

27
157

23
146

24
157

-4

-10

1
11

-1.7
-.7

.6
.7

5
16

8
19

12
27

4.0
1.6

4.2
3.8

36

40

40

4

0

1.0

.1

7

12

16

5.9

2.4

563

605

666

42

62

.7

1.0

51

66

89

2.7

3.0

373

400

450

28

49

.7

1.2

30

39

53

2.7

3.0

146

151

155

5

5

.3

.3

16

20

27

2.2

3.1

44

54

61

10

7

2.0

1.3

5

7

10

4.1

2.8

693

692

715

-1

24

.0

.3

85

114

151

3.0

2.9

297

309

329

12

20

.4

.6

37

55

91

4.1

5.2

395
5,110
12,828

383
5,641
15,047

387
6,279
17,129

-12
531
2,219

4
638
2,082

-.3
1.0
1.6

.1
1.1
1.3

49
600
667

59
1,025
1,013

60
1,622
1,420

2.0
5.5
4.3

.1
4.7
3.4

4,262
520
248
57

5,050
559
218
52

5,927
626
197
50

788
40
-30
-5

877
67
-21
-1

1.7
.7
-1.3
-.9

1.6
1.1
-1.0
-.3

488
100
37
21

637
142
44
21

895
229
58
28

2.7
3.6
1.8
-.1

3.5
4.9
2.7
2.8

1,496

1,897

2,404

401

507

2.4

2.4

170

240

349

3.5

3.8

288

372

488

84

116

2.6

2.8

21

26

30

2.2

1.2

2 0 0 2 -1 2

1992

2 0 )2 -1 2

3399

See footnotes at end of table.


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February

2004

65

Industry Output and Employment

Table 3.

Continued— Employment and output by industry, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
O u tpu t

Em ploym ent

Industry

2 0 0 2 NA IC S

486
487,488

493
51
511
5111

5112
516,518,519
512
515,517
5151
5152,5175

517, except 5175

52-53
521,522,525, 533

521,5221

Thousands of jobs

A v e ra g e
a n n u a l rate
of c h a n g e

Change

1992-

1992-

Billions of c h a in e d
1996 dollars

1992

2002

30

27

A v e ra g e
a n n u a l rate
of c h a n g e
19 92-

2002 2002-12

1992

2002

2012

60

42

42

388

553

652

165

100

3.6

1.7

36

44

57

2.1

2.6

406
2,641
854

514
3,420
970

660
4,052
1,133

108
779
115

147
632
163

2.4

481
134

31
891

1.3

2.5
1.7
1.6

21

2.6

222

42
1,498
334

4.1
6.4
5.1

3.1
5.3
4.2

740
114

714
256

703
430

-27
142

-11
174

-.4
8.4

-.1
5.3

105
31

122
102

132
229

1.5

0.8

12.6

8.4

307

529

773

222

244

5.6

3.9

25

87

233

13.1

10.3

254

387

503

133

116

4.3

2.7

50

93

178

6.3

6.7

1,226

1,535

1,643

309

109

2.3

.7

272

491

745

6.1

4.3

226

241

235

15

-6

0.6

-.2

34

40

46

1.7

1.5

Cable and other
subscription
programming and
program distribution....

126

221

300

95

79

5.7

3.1

36

53

64

3.9

1.9

Telecommunications,
except cable and
other programming
distribution................
Financial activities.......

873
6,540

1,073
7,843

1,108
8,806

200
1,303

35
964

2.1
1.8

.3
1.2

202
1,525

401
2,230

645
3,038

7.1
3.9

4.9
3.1

2,414

2,819

3,126

405

308

1.6

1.0

527

794

1,114

4.2

3.4

1,793

1,761

1,873

-31

112

-.2

281

408

584

3.8

3.7

621

1,058

1,253

436

196

5.5

1.7

246

386

530

4.6

3.2

476

801

925

325

124

5.3

1.5

97

350

526

13.6

4.2

2,040
1,367

2,223
1,402

2,391
1,451

184
35

168
49

313
237

347
237

419
288

1.0

.0

1.9
2.0

672

821

940

149

119

76

112

133

3.9

1.7

Pipeline transportation
Scenic and sightseeing
transportation and
support activities for
transportation............
Warehousing and
storage ....................
Information...................
Publishing indutries.....
Newspaper, periodical,
book, "and directory
publishers..................
Software publishers.....
Internet services, data
processing, and other
information services ...
Motion picture and
soundrecording
Industries...................
Broadcasting and
telecommunications....
Radio and television
broadcasting..............

Credit intermediation
and related activities,
monetary authorities,
and funds, trusts,
and other financial
vehicles ....................
Monetary authorities
and depository credit
intermediation............

5222, 5223,525, 533 Nondepository credit
intermediation and
related support
activities, funds,
trusts, and lessors
of nonfinancial
intangible (except
copyrighted works)....
Securities, commodity
523
contracts, and other
financial investments
and related activities..
524
Insurance carriers
and related activities..
5241
Insurance carriers.......
Agencies, brokerages,
5242
and other insurance
related activities........
See footnotes at end of table.

66 Monthly Labor Review

https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February

2004

2002

2002-12

-19

2002

2002-12

-3.6

2.0

1.4

2012

29

-

1.0

Table 3.

Continued— Employment and output by industry, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
E m p lo y m e n t

2 0 0 2 N AICS

Industry

Thousands of jobs

1992

531
532
5321
53,225,323
5324

54
5411
5412

5413

5414
5415

5416
5417,5419
5418

55
56

561
5611,2
5613
5614,5616, 5619

5615
5617
562
61

Real estate................... 1,115
Rental and leasing
services .....................
496
Automotive equipment
rental and leasing.......
151
Consumer goods rental
and general rental
centers .....................
267
Commercial and
industrial machinery
and equipment rental
and leasing.................
78
Professional, scientific,
and technical services 4,594
Legal services..............
950
Accounting, tax
preparation, book­
keeping, and payroll
services .....................
658
Architectural,
engineering, and related
services.....................
902
Specialized design
services .....................
81
Computer systems
design and related
services .....................
445
Management, scientific,
and technical
consulting services....
Scientific research and
development and other
and technical services
Advertising and related
services .....................
Management of
companies and
enterprises....................
Administrative and
support and waste
management and
remediation services...
Administrative support
services .....................
Office administrative
and facilities support
services.....................
Employment services....
Business support and
investigation and
security services
and support
services, n.e.c............
Travel arrangement and
reservation services ..
Services to buildings
and dwellings..............
Waste management and
remediation services
Educational services

2002

O u tpu t
A v e ra g e
a n n u a l rate
of c h a n g e

Change

2012

19 922002

2 0 0 2 -1 2

19922002

2 0 0 2 -1 2

A v e ra g e
a n n u a l ra te
of c h a n g e

Billions o f c h a in e d
1996 dollars

1992

1,348

1,513

233

165

1.9

1.2

542

652

852

156

200

2.8

2.7

197

225

46

28

2.7

1.3

353

484

86

131

2.8

102

143

24

41

6,715
1,112

8,579
1,330

2,122
162

867

1,082

1,251

2002

2012

19922002

2002-12

660

873

2.0

2.8

52

88

127

5.3

3.8

14

34

51

9.4

4.2

3.2

15

20

27

3.2

2.7

2.7

3.4

24

34

50

3.5

3.9

1,864
218

3.9
1.6

2.5
1.8

568
142

881
151

1,370
171

4.5
0.6

4.5
1.3

209

215

2.8

2.2

58

80

98

3.2

2.1

1,306

349

54

3.3

.4

110

157

217

3.7

3.3

123

161

42

38

4.2

2.7

13

21

29

5.0

3.6

1,163

1,798

718

635

10.1

4.5

55

127

302

8.8

9.0

358

732

1,137

374

406

7.4

4.5

59

114

169

6.7

4.1

830

1,026

1,241

196

215

2.1

1.9

90

166

284

6.3

5.5

370

442

525

72

84

1.8

1.7

42

67

111

4.8

5.2

1,623

1,711

1,906

88

195

.5

1.1

256

468

669

6.2

3.6

4,753

7,584

10,391

2,831

2,807

4.8

3.2

240

433

638

6.1

4.0

4,516

7,267

9,987

2,751

2,720

4.9

3.2

206

384

572

6.4

4.1

275
1,593

390
3,249

508
5,012

116
1,656

117
1,764

3.6
7.4

2.7
4.4

27
47

58
104

87
172

8.1
8.3

4.2
5.1

1,244

1,772

2,261

528

489

3.6

2.5

64

114

165

6.0

3.7

245

258

226

13

-32

.5

-1.3

21

25

36

1.8

3.7

1,160

1,597

1,980

438

383

3.3

2.2

47

81

109

5.5

3.1

237
1,713

317
2,651

404
3,410

80
938

87
759

3.0
4.5

2.5
2.6

34
95

49
125

66
149

3.7
2.8

3.0
1.8

See footnotes at end of table.


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February

2004

67

Industry Output and Employment

Table 3.

Continued— Employment and output by industry, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
E m p lo y m e n t

20 0 2 NA IC S

62
621
6211-3

6214-6,6219

622
623
6231-2

6233,6239

624
6241-3

6244

71
711

7111,7113-5

7112
712

713
72
721
7211

7212-3
722

Industry

Ambulatory health
care services except
offices of health
practitioners..........
Hospitals ................
Nursing and
residential care
facilities ................
Nursing care and
residential mental
health facilities......
Community care
facilities for the
elderly and
residential care
facilities, n .e .c.....

19922002

A v e ra g e
a n n u a l ra te
of c h a n g e
19922002

2002

2012

10,178

13,533

17,919

3,355

4,386

2.9

2.8

719

3,200

4,634

6,532

1,434

1,899

3.8

3.5

332

452

656

3.1

3.8

2,267

3,190

4,419

923

1,229

3.5

3.3

251

332

469

2.9

3.5

933
3,711

1,444
4,153

2,113
4,785

511
442

670
632

4.5
1.1

3.9
1.4

82
256

120
334

424

2.7

2.4

2,044

2,743

3,685

700

942

3.0

3.0

71

88

114

2.1

2.6

1,578

2,048

2,607

470

559

2.6

2.4

56

65

82

1.5

2.4

465

695

1,078

230

382

4.1

4.5

16

23

33

4.2

3.4

1,223

2,004

2,917

780

913

5.1

3.8

59

88

132

4.1

4.1

777

1,269

1,867

493

597

5.0

3.9

34

52

78

4.2

4.1

447

734

1,050

288

316

5.1

3.6

24

37

55

4.3

4.0

1,236

1,778

2,275

542

497

3.7

2.5

95

143

200

4.2

3.4

290

358

421

68

63

2.1

1.6

41

53

65

2.4

2.2

195
95

240
118

277
144

45
23

37
26

2.1
2.2

1.4
2.0

27
15

34
19

43
22

2.4
2.3

2.3
1.9

75

113

136

38

24

4.1

1.9

4

7

9

5.9

2.7

872

1,308

1,717

436

410

4.1

2.8

49

83

126

5.5

4.2

8,201
1,562

10,191
1,780

11,829
2,080

1,991
218

1,638
301

2.2
1.3

1.5
1.6

347
90

449
116

597
173

2.6
2.5

2.9
4.1

1,517

1,726

2,019

209

293

1.3

1.6

88

113

169

2.5

4.1

44

53

62

9

8

1.9

1.5

2

3

4

2.1

3.2

6,639

8,412

9,749

1,773

1,337

2.4

1.5

256

333

423

2.7

2.4

Arts, entertainment,
and recreation.......
Performing arts,
spectator sports, and
related industries....
Performing arts
companies,
promoters, agents,
managers and
independent artists
Spectator sports.....
Museums, historical
sites, and similar
institutions.............
Amusement, gambling,
and recreation
industries...............
Accomodation and
food services........
Accommodation.......
Traveler
accommodation.....
RV parks, recreational
camps, and rooming
and boarding houses
Food services and
drinking places......

See footnotes at end of table.

68 Monthly Labor Review

19922002

Billions of
c h a in e d 1996
dollars

1992

Social assisiatnce....
Individual, family,
community, and
vocational
rehabilitation
services ................
Child day care
services ................


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

A v e ra g e
a n n u a l rate
of c h a n g e

Change

Thousands o f jobs

Health care and
social assistance...
Ambulatory health
care services........
Offices of health
practitioners..........

O u tp u t

February

2004

2 0 0 2 -1 2

2002-1 2

1992

20 02

962

2012

1,326

3.0

20 02-1 2

3.3

Table 3.

Continued— Employment and output by industry, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
O u tp u t

Em ploym ent

2 0 0 2 NA IC S

Industry

81
811
8111
8112

8113

8114

812
8121
8122
8123
8129
813

8131-3

81,348,139

814
.... 491
491

2012

2002

1992

A v e ra g e
a n n u a l ra te
of c h a n g e

Change

Thousands o f jobs

19 922002

20 0 2 -1 2

19922002

A v e ra g e
a n n u a l ra te
of c h a n g e

Billions of
c h a in e d 1996
dollars

2 0 0 2 -1 2

1992

2002

2012

19922002-12
2002

Other services........
Repair and
maintenance..........
Automotive repair
and maintenance....
Electronic and
precision equipment
repair and
maintenance...........
Commercial and
industrial equipment
(except automotive
and electronic)
repair and
maintenance...........
Personal and
household goods
repair and
maintenance...........
Personal and laundry
serivces .................
Personal care
services .................
Death care services..
Drycleaning and
laundry services.....
Other personal
Services.................
Religious,
grantmaking, civic,
professional, and
similar
organizations..........
Religious, grantmaking
and giving services,
and social advocacy
organizations..........
Civic, social,
business, and
similar organizations
Private households ...

5,120

6,105

7,065

985

960

1.8

1.5

298

382

506

2.5

2.9

964

1,241

1,418

277

177

2.6

1.3

118

158

205

2.9

2.7

636

897

1,046

261

149

3.5

1.6

69

93

124

3.1

2.9

99

105

101

7

-5

.6

-.5

17

17

18

.5

.2

149

156

185

8

29

.5

1.7

16

28

42

5.4

4.1

80

82

86

2

3

.2

.4

17

20

22

2.0

.7

1,099

1,247

1,485

148

238

1.3

1.8

76

98

125

2.6

2.4

434
116

523
139

667
155

89
22

144
16

1.9
1.8

2.5
1.1

20
12

27
12

35
13

2.8
.5

2.6
.8

359

366

393

7

27

.2

.7

18

21

25

1.5

1.7

190

219

270

29

51

1.4

2.1

26

38

53

4.0

3.3

2,177

2,861

3,460

684

600

2.8

1.9

94

117

166

2.2

3.6

1,403

1,944

2,372

541

428

3.3

2.0

49

66

107

3.1

4.9

774
880

917
757

1,088
703

143
-123

172
-54

1.7
-1.5

1.7
-.7

45
10

50
9

59
11

1.2
-.8

1.5
1.1

Federal Government..
Postal Service..........
Federal electric
utilities .................
Federal Government
enterprises, n.e.c....
Federal general
government.............
Federal Government
capital services......
Local government
passenger transit....
State and local
government.............
State and local
electric utilities.......
State and local
government
enterprises..............

3,111
800

2,767
845

2,779
807

-344
45

12
-38

-1.2
.5

.0
-.5

394
51

378
61

443
76

-.4
1.7

1.6
2.2

28

28

24

1

-A

.2

-1.7

7

9

11

2.5

2.0

138

52

32

-86

-20

-9.3

-4.6

6

7

11

1.4

4.1

2,145

1,842

1,915

-303

73

-1.5

.4

252

209

216

-1.9

.4

_

_

_

_

_

_

_

78

93

133

1.7

3.7

210

231

260

21

29

1.0

1.2

7

9

10

2.6

.4

15,675

18,722

21,240

3,047

2,518

1.8

1.3

685

839

980

2.0

1.6

85

93

108

9

14

1.0

1.4

18

24

29

2.5

2.2

532

689

734

157

46

2.6

.6

78

104

131

2.9

2.4

See footnotes at end of table.


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February

2004

69

Industry Output and Employment

Table 3.

Continued— Employment and output by industry, 1992, 2002, and projected 2012
Em ploym ent

2 0 0 2 N A IC S

1133
115

A v e ra g e
a n n u a l ra te
of c h a n g e

Industry
Thousands of jobs

11
111,112
1131-2,
114

O u tpu t

State and local
government
hospitals.................
State and local
government
education................
State and local
general government,
n.e.c.........................
State and local
government capital
services ....................
Owner-occupied
dwellings...................
Agriculture'..................
Agricultural products...

2 0 0 2 -1 2

19 922002

20 02-1 2

-89

29

-.9

.3

41

48

56

1.5

1.5

11,606

2,002

1,730

2.3

1.6

276

321

375

1.5

1.5

7,508

948

670

1.5

.9

207

241

260

1.5

.8

58

93

122

4.9

2.8

1992

2002

1,083

995

1,024

7,875

9,876

5,890

6,838

2012

19922002

2012

19 922 0 02-1 2
2002

_

_

2,639
2,318

2,245
1,955

1,905
1,632

-394
-362

-340
-324

-1.6
-1.7

-1.6
-1.8

552
274
221

710
300
246

907
352
286

2.6
.9
1.1

2.5
1.6
1.5

96
120

68
98

50
90

-28
-23

-17
-7

-3.4
-2.1

-2.9
-.8

12
29

12
31

14
36

-.4
.8

1.7
1.4

105

124

133

19

9

1.6

.7

11

11

16

-.3

3.4

9,009

9,018

9,162

10

144

.0

.2

178

143

128

-35

-15

-2.2

-1.1

1,973

1,545

1,434

-428

-111

-2.4

-.7

123,325 144,014 165,319

20,689

21,305

1.6

1.4 12,272 16,822 23,250

3.2

3.3

Secondary jobs as a
self-employed or
unpaid family
worker4 ...................

1 Includes agricutlure, forestry, fishing, and hunting data from the Cur­
rent Population Survey, except logging, which is from the Current Employ­
ment Survey and government wage and salary workers, which are excluded.
2 Comparable estimate of output growth is not available.
3 Workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job in agricultural
production, forestry, fishing, and private household industries.
4Wage and salary workers who hold a secondary wage and salary job as
a self-employed or unpaid family worker.

Fueling 7.4 percent average annual increases between 1992
and 2002, the demand for employment services, the largest
industry within the professional and business services group,
heightened as companies sought new ways to reduce costs
and become more responsive to changes in market demand.
Even though this industry, which includes temporary staffing
services, professional employer organizations, and employ­
70 Monthly Labor Review

2002

_

Secondary wage and
salary jobs in
agricultural production,
forestry, fishing, and
private household
industries3..................


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1992

_

Nonagriculture selfemployed and
unpaid family
workers2 ...................

...................

A v e ra g e
an n u a l ra te
of c h a n g e

Billions of
c h a in e d 1996
dollars

_

Forestry, fishing,
hunting, and trapping
Logging ...................
Support activities
for agriculture
and forestry..............

Total68

Change

February

2004

5 Wage and salary data are from the Current Employment Statistics
survey, which counts jobs, whereas self-employed, unpaid family workers,
and agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting are from the Current Population
Survey which counts workers.
6 Output subcategories do not necessarily add to higher categories as a
by product of chainweighting.
Note: Dash indicates data not available.
n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified.

ment placement agencies, is projected to grow significantly
slower than in the past, its 4.4 percent growth rate still ranks
among the top five industries with the fastest employment
increases. The projected addition of 1.8 million workers by
2012 translates into 5.0 million total jobs, and positions this
industry as the second largest source of jobs created by 2012.
(See table 6.) The catalyst for this industry’s positive relative

momentum will be increases in the demand for temporary staff­
ing services, as flexible work arrangements and schedules
continue to proliferate. In addition, professional employer or­
ganizations are expected to continue their historical growth
as companies, facing increasingly complex employee-related
laws and regulations look to control costs, reduce risks, and
provide more integrated services by contracting out their per­
sonnel management, health benefits, w orkers’ compensation
and unem ploym ent insurance, tax, and payroll responsibili­
ties. Employment placement agencies, which provide prelimi­
nary em ploym ent screening tasks and executive recruitment
services, are expected to be the slowest employment services
sector. Em ploym ent increases for this industry are projected
to be tempered by reduced labor needs from online employ­
ment placement agencies and various segments of competi­
tion, for example, job matching Internet sites operated by edu­
cational institutions and professional associations.
The projected growth rate for employment in computer sys­
tems design and related services is 4.5 percent— among the
five fastest in the economy and more than three times faster
than the econom y’s average. Setting a staggering precedent
over the 1992-2002 period, this industry’s employment grew
at a 10.1-percent annual rate, compared with 1.8 percent for
total nonfarm job growth. Employment in computer systems
design and related services, providing expertise in the field of
information technologies, grew from 445,000 jobs in 1992 to
1.2 million in 2002, and is projected to increase to 1.8 million
by 2012. Reflecting the expansion of electronic commerce, a
growing reliance on the Internet, faster and more efficient
internal and external communication, and the implementation
of new technologies and applications, the 635,000 projected
growth in jobs also ranks this industry among the econom y’s
largest growing.7
The importance of computer systems design and related
services industry can also be realized by its output growth
position. As table 5 shows, this industry is one of the fastest
growing, with a projected output growth rate of 9.0 percent
annually. This projected growth rate is slightly higher than
the 8.8-percent average annual rate of increase posted during
the 1992-2002 period.
Employment in management, scientific, and technical con­
sulting services is expected to increase from 732,000 in 2002
to 1.1 million in 2012— an annual rate of 4.5 percent and among
the five fastest in the economy. Attributed to continued eco­
nomic development and growing business complexity, busi­
nesses will continue to need advice on planning and logis­
tics, implementation of new technologies, and compliance
with government tax, environmental, and employee benefits
and workplace safety laws and regulations.

Health services.

The gradual aging o f the population,
coupled with advances in medical technologies that increase


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

life expectancies, will place health services as a dominant
source of projected employment growth. This sector, com­
prising mostly health practitioners offices, private hospitals,
and nursing and residential care facilities, is expected to ac­
count for 1 out of every 6 new jobs created by 2012. The
resulting 3.5 million additional workers will be spread through­
out this large and diverse sector.
O f the 241.6 million people aged 16 and older, 32.4 percent
or 78.2 million are projected to be 55 or older by 2012. Their
projected 2.7 percent annual growth rate is more than double
the average annual increases for the population as a whole.
The reality of an aging population will result in employment in
nursing care and residential mental health facilities, which
include hospices, nursing and convalescent homes, to grow
by 559,000 and reach 2.6 million in 2012. However, this trend
will be eclipsed by potential Government budget constraints,
a continued shift towards less expensive home health care
and assisted living, and a healthier elderly population.8 Com­
munity care facilities for the elderly and residential care facili­
ties (not elsewhere classified), which provide assisted living
services, is expected to grow at an average annual rate of 4.5
percent— third fastest in the economy. Growth in these types
of facilities reflects the desire of many elderly to m aintain an
independent lifestyle. Employment in this industry is expected
to expand by 382,000 to reach above the 1.0 million mark by

2012.
Echoing the same rational of maintained independence and
nursing home avoidance, health care for the elderly that is
provided at their home is expected to be the main driver be­
hind the aggressive growth in ambulatory health care ser­
vices— almost 670,000 additional jobs added at a average an­
nual rate of 3.9 percent from 2002 to 2012.
Employment growth in private hospitals, facing industry
cost pressures and increased utilization of clinics and other
alternative care sites, will be the slowest within the health
services industry. However, due to this industry’s relatively
large size, private hospitals are projected to be the fourteenth
largest source of employment growth in 2012 — adding 632,000
jobs and reaching a total employment level of 4.8 million.
Spurred to reduce costs, hospitals are increasingly providing
services on an outpatient or ambulatory basis, limiting un­
necessary or low-priority services, and stressing preventa­
tive care.9 These trends, in turn, will provide the impetus for
the aggressive growth that is expected for offices of health
practitioners and the outpatient care center portion of the
ambulatory health care services industry. Offices of health
practitioners, providing medical, surgical, and dental services
outside the traditional hospital setting are expected to grow
at a 3.3-percent average annual rate— significantly faster than
the economy as a whole. The 1.2 million new jobs expected to
be generated by offices of health practitioners rank this in­
dustry among the largest sources of employment growth in
Monthly Labor Review

February

2004

71

Industry Output and Employment

the economy. Reflecting the growing demand for services pro­
vided by offices of health practitioners, rising expenditures
will also rank this industry among the largest in terms of out­
put growth— consumers are expected to demand $468.9 bil­
lion by 2012, an increase of $ 136.6 billion over its 2002 level.

Social assistance. Employment within the social assistance
sector, surpassing the 2 million mark in 2002, grew at a stag­
gering 5.1 percent from 1992 to 2002— almost triple the em­
ploym ent growth rate for the overall economy. Even though
that rate is expected to slow to 3.8 percent over the projected
period, this sector, which provides diverse services ranging
from community food, housing, and emergency relief services
to child daycare services, is expected to be responsible for
generating almost a million more jobs. This sector is also ex­
pected to m aintain its robust historical 4.1 percent output
growth rate over the projected period.
L eading this sector in term s o f em ploym ent size and
growth, employment in the individual, family, community, and
vocational rehabilitation services industry is projected to in­
crease at a 3.9-percent annual rate, to 1.9 million jobs in 2012
from 1.3 million jobs in 2002. This reflects the continued ex­
pansion o f services for the elderly and families in crisis, as
well as an increased emphasis on earlier and better integra­
tion of the physically disabled and mentally ill into society.
As the increase in the population of women of childbear­
ing age was accompanied by a slight increase in the propor­
tion o f such women in the labor force, demand for child
daycare services, the other industry within this sector, grew
at a staggering pace— 5.1 percent annually from 1992 to 2002.
Even though these dem ographic changes are expected to
abate over the projected 2002-12 period, government in­
creases in funding and promotion, welfare reform legislation
that require more welfare recipients to work, and an increas­
ing amount o f employer-operated daycare centers will keep
this industry among the fastest growing in terms of projected
employment. Employment in child daycare services is ex­
pected to increase by 316,000 jobs to 1.1 million by 2012.
Leisure and hospitality.

Employment in leisure and hospi­
tality industries increased by 2.5 million over the 1992-2002
period, posting an above average 2.4-percent annual growth
rate. The projected 2002-2012 employment increase of 2.1
million translates into 14.1 million total jobs, and represents a
slower annual growth rate of 1.7 percent. Primarily including
food services and drinking places, this sector will continue to
play a prominent job creation role in the economy— approxi­
mately 10 percent of new jobs are expected to be stimulated
by this diverse industry group. Real output for this sector is
expected to be maintained at its historical 3.0 percent annual
pace, reaching $797.2 billion by 2012.
Jobs in food services and drinking places are projected to
72 Monthly Labor Review

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February

2004

increase by 1.3 million from the 2002 level of 8.4 million to
arrive at the 2012 level of 9.8 million. On an annual average
basis, the projected employment growth rate of 1.5 percent is
slower than 2.4 percent rate and 1.8 million jobs posted during
the 1992-2002 period. Demographic factors such as increases
in population, personal incomes, leisure time, and dual-in­
come families will still contribute to this industry being the
fifth largest source of employment growth by 2012. Output
for food services and drinking places is projected to keep
close pace with its 1992-2002 historical growth rate of 2.7
percent.
The amusement, gambling, and recreation industry, which
includes a diverse group of casinos, amusement parks, and fit­
ness clubs, is expected to be one of the fastest and largest
sources of employment growth by 2012. Reflecting increasing
personal incomes, leisure time, and awareness of the health ben­
efits of physical fitness, the strong gain in jobs for this industry
is an expected 410,000, rising to 1.7 million from the 2002 level of
1.3 million. Output is projected to grow at a rapid 4.2-percent
annual rate, making this a $126.0 billion industry by 2012.

Wholesale and retail trade. W holesale trade is projected
to add 638,000 jobs to its 2002 level of 5.6 million, to reach 6.3
million by 2012. Due in part to its relative size, the wholesale
trade industry ranks as one of the main sources of em ploy­
ment growth over the projected period. The annual employ­
ment growth rate of 1.1 percent is comparable to the industry’s
annual growth rate over the previous decade. Hedging the
growth in employment, the wholesale trade industry is ex­
pected to continue its consolidation trends because of glo­
balization, and cost pressures. In addition, productivity-en­
hancing technology such as e-commerce will further constrain
the pace of employment growth. However, the expansion of
customer services should increase demand for this industry’s
supply and distribution services. Real output for wholesale
trade is expected to increase by 4.7 percent annually through
2012, expanding by almost $600 billion to $1.6 trillion. This
gives this industry the distinction of being the second largest
source of projected output growth and one of the econom y’s
fastest.
The retail trade industry is the N ation’s largest employer,
with about 15.0 million jobs in 2002. Even though the pro­
jected employment annual growth rate of 1.3 percent repre­
sents a slowdown relative to the past decade, this industry,
by adding 2.1 million new jobs and reaching 17.1 m illion by
2012, will continue to be the dominant source of employment.
Real output for retail trade is expected to grow to $1.4 trillion
in 2012 from $1.0 trillion in 2002, or at an average annual rate of
3.4 percent.
Government. Employment in the public sector is projected
to increase by 2.5 million from its 2002 level of 21.5 million

Table 4.

Industries with the fastest growing and most rapidly declining wage and salary employment, 2002-12
C hange

Thousands of jobs
2 0 0 2 N A IC S

Industry description
2002

2012

A v e ra g e
a n n u a l rate
of c h a n g e

2 0 0 2 -1 2

2 0 0 2 -1 2

Fastest gro w in g

5112
5416
6233,6239
5415
5613
6241-3
6214-6,6219
2213
516,518,519

6244
5324
6211-3
5322,5323
5152,5175
713
485
5414
5611,2
512
61

Software publishers...............................................................
Management, scientific, and technical consulting
services...............................................................................
Community care facilities for the elderly and residential
care facilities, n.e.c.............................................................
Computer systems design and related services.................
Employment services............................................................
Individual, family, community, and vocational
rehabilitation services.........................................................
Ambulatory health care services except offices
of health practitioners.........................................................
Water, sewage, and other systems......................................
Internet services, data processing, and other
information services............................................................
Child day care services........................................................
Commercial and industrial machinery and equipment
rental and leasing................................................................
Offices of health practitioners..............................................
Consumer goods rental and general rental centers.............
Cable and other subscription programming and
program distribution.............................................................
Amusement, gambling, and recreation industries................
Transit and ground passenger transportation......................
Specialized design services.................................................
Office administrative and facilities support services..........
Motion picture and sound recording industries...................
Educational services.............................................................

256.0

429.7

173.7

5.3

731.8

1,137.4

405.6

4.5

695.3
1,162.7
3,248.8

1,077.6
1,797.7
5,012.3

382.3
635.0
1,763.5

4.5
4.5
4.4

1,269.3

1,866.6

597.3

3.9

1,443.6
48.5

2,113.4
71.0

669.8
22.5

3.9
3.9

528.8

773.1

244.3

3.9

734.2

1,050.3

316.1

3.6

102.2
3,189.9
352.9

142.8
4,418.8
484.2

40.6
1,228.9
131.3

3.4
3.3
3.2

220.9
1,307.6
371.5
122.9
390.3
387.1
2,650.6

299.8
1,717.3
487.7
160.8
507.6
503.1
3,409.8

78.9
409.7
116.2
37.9
117.3
116.0
759.2

3.1
2.8
2.8
2.7
2.7
2.7
2.6

M ost ra p id ly d e c lin in g

3152
3151
3133
3161
313
3169
3132
3159
3131
3122

Cut and sew apparel manufacturing.....................................
Apparel knitting m ills .............................................................
Textile and fabric finishing and fabric coating mills.............
Leather and hide tanning and finishing.................................
Textile m ills ............................................................................
Other leather and allied product manufacturing..................
Fabric mills.............................................................................
Apparel accessories and other apparel manufacturing.......
Fiber, yarn, and thread m ills .................................................
Tobacco manufacturing.........................................................

281.8
49.6
82.4
8.6
293.2
19.9
146.6
26.2
64.2
33.2

77.1
20.0
40.1
4.5
156.9
10.8
79.6
15.1
37.2
20.2

-204.7
-29.6
-42.3
-4.1
-136.3
-9.1
-67.0
-11.1
-27.0
-13.0

-12.2
-8.7
-6.9
-6.3
-6.1
-5.9
-5.9
-5.4
-5.3
-4.8

2122
NA
2121
3259
3311
211
3341
1131-2,114
3221
3252

Metal ore m ining....................................................................
Federal Government enterprises, n.e.c.................................
Coalmining............................................................................
Other chemical product and preparation manufacturing.....
Iron and steel mills and ferroalloy manufacturing...............
Oil and gas extraction...........................................................
Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing.............
Forestry, fishing, hunting, and trapping................................
Pulp, paper, and paperboard m ills........................................
Resin, synthetic rubber, and artificial synthetic fibers
and filaments manufacturing...............................................

29.4
51.9
74.9
112.4
107.1
122.5
249.8
67.6
168.2

18.0
32.4
52.3
79.4
76.0
88.4
182.1
50.4
126.4

-11.4
-19.5
-22.6
-33.0
-31.1
-34.1
-67.7
-17.2
-41.8

-4.8
-4.6
-3.5
-3.4
-3.4
-3.2
-3.1
-2.9
-2.8

114.3

88.5

-25.8

-2.5

Note: n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified.

through 2012. This reflects an annual growth rate of 1.1 per­
cent, slower than the total nonfarm wage and salary increase
of 1.5 percent. Federal Government employment is projected
to m aintain its 2002 level of 2.8 million, adding only 12,000
jobs by 2012. Job growth generated by increased homeland
security needs is expected to be offset by other Federal agency


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

budgetary constraints, the growing use of private contrac­
tors, and the transfer of some functions to State and local
government. The expected stabilizing outcome is a divergence
from this sector’s historical employment declines of 1.2 per­
cent annually from 1992-2002.
State and local governm ent em ploym ent is projected to
Monthly Labor Review

February

2004

73

Industry Output and Employment

Table 5.

Industries with the fastest growing and most rapidly declining output growth, 2002-12

2 0 0 2 NAICS

Billions of c h a in e d
(1 996) dollars

Industry description

C hange

A v e ra g e an n u a l
ra te of c h a n g e

2002

2012

2 0 0 2 -1 2

Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing.............
Communications equipment manufacturing...........................
Internet services, data processing, and other
information services............................................................
Computer systems design and related services..................
Software publishers................................................................
Motion picture and sound recording Industries....................
Motor vehicle body and trailer manufacturing......................
Scientific research and development and other
professional, scientific, and technical services...............
Medical equipment and supplies manufacturing...................
Other general purpose machinery manufacturing................

262.8
100.0

2,292.7
268.1

2,029.9
168.1

24.2
10.4

86.9
127.1
102.2
92.8
22.1

232.6
302.2
228.8
177.8
38.5

145.7
175.1
126.6
85.0
16.4

10.3
9.0
8.4
6.7
5.7

166.4
54.8
50.8

283.7
91.2
84.3

117.3
36.4
33.4

5.5
5.2
5.2

Advertising and related services...........................................
Employment services.............................................................
Metalworking machinery manufacturing.................................
Religious, grantmaking and giving services, and social
advocacy organizations.......................................................
Air transportation...................................................................
Telecommunications, except cable and other
programming distribution......................................................
Electrical equipment manufacturing.......................................
Wholesale tra d e .....................................................................
Ambulatory health care services except offices
of health practitioners.........................................................
Forging and stamping.............................................................

66.8
104.4
23.3

110.6
171.7
37.6

43.8
67.3
14.4

5.2
5.1
4.9

66.2
142.2

107.0
229.5

40.8
87.3

4.9
4.9

400.6
28.6
1,025.3

644.7
45.5
1,622.5

244.0
16.9
597.2

4.9
4.7
4.7

120.2
22.8

188.3
35.5

68.1
12.8

4.6
4.5

2 0 0 2 -1 2

Fastest g ro w in g

3341
3342
516,518,519
5415
5112
512
3362
5417,5419
3391
3339
5418
5613
3335
8131-3
481
517, except 5175
3353
42
6214-6,6219
3321

M ost ra p id ly d e c lin in g

3151
3152
3169
3161
3133
3251
3131
3159
2121
211

Apparel knitting m ills..............................................................
Cut and sew apparel manufacturing......................................
Other leather and allied product manufacturing...................
Leather and hide tanning and finishing..................................
Textile and fabric finishing and fabric coating m ills .............
Basic chemical manufacturing...............................................
Fiber, yarn, and thread m ills..................................................
Apparel accessories and other apparel manufacturing........
Coal mining.............................................................................
Oil and gas extraction............................................................

6.4
39.8
2.1
2.6
12.2
97.5
10.5
3.8
26.2
87.4

2.3
17.1
1.0
1.2
6.5
75.6
8.2
3.3
23.4
79.6

-4.1
-22.7
-1.2
-1.4
-5.6
-21.9
-2.4
-.6
-2.8
-7.8

-9.7
-8.1
-7.7
-7.7
-6.0
-2.5
-2.5
-1.5
-1.1
-.9

2123
3221
3252

Nonmetallic mineral mining and quarrying.............................
Pulp, paper, and paperboard m ills.........................................
Resin, synthetic rubber, and artificial synthetic fibers
and filaments manufacturing................................................
Fabric m ills .............................................................................
Tobacco manufacturing..........................................................
Nonferrous metal (except aluminum) production
and processing.....................................................................

17.5
67.7

16.7
64.7

-.8
-3.0

-.5
-.5

56.4
22.1
34.2

54.0
21.1
33.1

-2.4
-.9
-1.0

-.4
-.4
-.3

21.8

21.1

-.6

-.3

3132
3122
3314

increase from the 1992 level of 18.7 million to 21.2 million jobs
by 2012. The annual rate of growth is expected to slow from
1.8 percent posted between 1992 and 2002 to 1.3 percent
through 2012. Driving this growth is the expected 1.7 million
jobs from State and local government education, which ac­
counts for more than half o f all State and local government
employment. Even though flat enrollments for preschool, el­
ementary, and secondary classes are projected, proposed
government reforms such as universal preschool, all-day kin74 Monthly Labor Review

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February

2004

dergarten, and reduced class size should buoy the em ploy­
ment demand for this segment of State and local government
education. Rising enrollments in post-secondary education,
spurred by children of the baby boomers reaching college
age and a general demand for continued career and skills train­
ing, therefore, will be the m ain catalyst for this industry’s
overall employment growth.10
Output for State and local hospitals is expected to m oder­
ately grow at 1.5 percent annually as these hospitals continue

Table 6.

Industries with the largest wage and salary employment growth and declines, 2002-12
C hange

A v e r a g e an n u a l
ra te of c h a n g e

2012

2 0 0 2 -1 2

2 0 0 2 -1 2

Thousands of jobs
2 0 0 2 NA IC S

Industry description
2002
Largest grow th

44—45
5613
NA
722
6211-3
23
61
6214-6,6219
NA
42
5415
622
6241-3
6231-2
484,492
5614, 5616, 5619
8131-3
713
5416
5617

Retail trad e ........................................................................................
Employment services.......................................................................
State and local government education............................................
Food services and drinking places..................................................
Offices of health practitioners.........................................................
Construction......................................................................................
Educational services........................................................................
Ambulatory health care services except offices of health
practitioners....................................................................................
State and local general government, n.e.c.....................................
Wholesale tra d e ...............................................................................

15,047.2
3,248.8
9,876.0
8,411.7
3,189.9
6,731.7
2,650.6

17,129.2
5,012.3
11,606.0
9,749.0
4,418.8
7,745.4
3,409.8

2,082.0
1,763.5
1,730.0
1,337.3
1,228.9
1,013.7
759.2

1.3
4.4
1.6
1.5
3.3
1.4
2.6

1,443.6
6,838.4
5,641.1

2,113.4
7,508.1
6,279.3

669.8
669.7
638.2

3.9
.9
1.1

Computer systems design and related services............................
Hospitals.........................................................................................
Individual, family, community, and vocational rehabilitation
services...........................................................................................
Nursing care and residential mental health facilities......................
Truck transportation and couriers and messengers.......................
Business support and investigation and security services
and support services, n.e.c............................................................
Religious, grantmaking and giving services, and social
advocacy organizations.................................................................
Amusement, gambling, and recreation industries...........................
Management, scientific, and technical consulting services..........
Services to buildings and dwellings.................................................

1,162.7
4,153.1

1,797.7
4,785.0

635.0
631.9

4.5
1.4

1,269.3
2,047.8
1,897.1

1,866.6
2,607.1
2,404.3

597.3
559.3
507.2

3.9
2.4
2.4

1,772.3

2,260.8

488.5

2.5

1,944.2
1,307.6
731.8
1,597.3

2,372.0
1,717.3
1,137.4
1,980.2

427.8
409.7
405.6
382.9

2.0
2.8
4.5
2.2

Largest d e c lin e s

111,112
3152
3364
3344
3341
3132
3345
814
3133
3221
491
211
3259
5615
3311
2211
3251

3P99
3151
3131

Agricultural products........................................................................
Cut and sew apparel manufacturing................................................
Aerospace product and parts manufacturing..................................
Semiconductor and other electronic component manufacturing....
Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing.......................
Fabric mills.........................................................................................
Navigational, measuring, electromedical, and control instruments
manufacturing.................................................................................
Private households..........................................................................
Textile and fabric finishing and fabric coating m ills .......................
Pulp, paper, and paperboard m ills...................................................

1,955.4
281.8
468.3
531.4
249.8
146.6

1,631.8
77.1
385.7
452.0
182.1
79.6

-323.6
-204.7
-82.6
-79.4
-67.7
-67.0

-1.8
-12.2
-1.9
-1.6
-3.1
-5.9

450.6
757.0
82.4
168.2

395.6
702.7
40.1
126.4

-55.0
-54.3
-42.3
-41.8

-1.3
-.7
-6.9
-2.8

Postal Service...................................................................................
Oil and gas extraction......................................................................
Other chemical product and preparation manufacturing................
Travel arrangement and reservation services.................................
Iron and steel mills and ferroalloy manufacturing..........................
Electric power generation, transmission, and distribution.............
Basic chemical manufacturing.........................................................
Converted paper product manufacturing.........................................
Apparel knitting m ills ........................................................................
Fiber, yarn, and thread m ills............................................................

844.8
122.5
112.4
258.0
107.1
435.7
170.5
381.6
49.6
64.2

807.0
88.4
79.4
225.9
76.0
404.7
139.8
351.1
20.0
37.2

-37.8
-34.1
-33.0
-32.1
-31.1
-31.0
-30.7
-30.5
-29.6
-27.0

-.5
-3.2
-3.4
-1.3
-3.4
-.7
-2.0
-.8
-8.7
-5.3

Note: n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified.

to provide services to trauma victims, the poor, and unin­
sured persons. Employment growth, however, will be limited—
increasing by a meager 0.3 percent annually to 1.0 million jobs
in 2012 from 995,000 in 2002. This will be due to productivity
increases, the trend of some communities eliminating certain
services, and more State government hospitals closing or be­
ing converted into com m unity general hospitals, which are


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usually private, not-for-profit institutions.11
The rest of State and local government employment will grow
as a consequence of the events surrounding September 11,2001;
the assumption of some Federal Government responsibilities;
and an increasing population demanding more services. Budget­
ary constraints, reductions in Federal aid, and resistance to tax
increases from citizens will work to impede this growth.
Monthly Labor Review

February

2004

75

Industry Output and Employment

Table 7.

Industries with the largest output growth and declines, 2002-2012

2002
NA IC S

Billions of c h a in e d
(1 9 9 6 ) dollars

Industry description

2002

2012

Change

A v e ra g e an nu al
ra te of c h a n g e

2 0 0 2 -1 2

2 0 0 2 -1 2

Largest grow th

3341
42
44-45
521,522, 525, 533
517, except 5175
531
551
NA
521,5221
523

5415
3342
516,518,519
5222, 5223,525, 533
6211-3
23
5112
5417,5419
484, 492
622

Computer and peripheral equipment manufacturing.............................
Wholesale trade.....................................................................................
Retail tra d e ............................................................................................
Credit intermediation and related activities, monetary authorities,
and funds, trusts, and other financial vehicles.................................
Telecommunications, except cable and other programming
distribution...........................................................................................
Real e sta te ............................................................................................
Management of companies and enterprises........................................
Owner-occupied dwellings....................................................................
Monetary authorities and depository credit intermediation................
Securities, commodity contracts, and other financial investments
and related activities............................................................................

262.8
1,025.3
1,013.1

2,292.7
1,622.5
1,420.0

2,029.9
597.2
406.9

24.2
4.7
3.4

794.3

1,114.4

320.1

3.4

400.6
659.6
468.3
710.3
408.2

644.7
873.1
668.9
906.9
584.5

244.0
213.5
200.6
196.6
176.3

4.9
2.8
3.6
2.5
3.7

350.1

525.9

175.8

4.2

Computer systems design and related services.................................
Communications equipment manufacturing..........................................
Internet services, data processing, and other information services.
Nondepository credit intermediation and related support activities,
funds, trusts, and lessors of nonfinancial intangible
assets (except copywrighted works).................................................
Offices of health practitioners.............................................................
Construction...........................................................................................
Software publishers...............................................................................
Scientific research and development and other professional,
scientific, and technical services........................................................
Truck transportation and couriers and messengers............................
Hospitals................................................................................................

127.1
100.0
86.9

302.2
268.1
232.6

175.1
168.1
145.7

9.0
10.4
10.3

386.4
332.3
718.7
102.2

530.4
468.9
851.8
228.8

144.1
136.6
133.1
126.6

3.2
3.5
1.7
8.4

166.4
239.5
334.3

283.7
349.1
424.4

117.3
109.6
90.1

5.5
3.8
2.4

Cut and sew apparel manufacturing.....................................................
Basic chemical manufacturing.............................................................
Oil and gas extraction..........................................................................
Textile and fabric finishing and fabric coating m ills.............................
Apparel knitting m ills .............................................................................
Pulp, paper, and paperboard m ills .......................................................
Coalm ining............................................................................................
Resin, synthetic rubber, and artificial synthetic fibers and filaments
manufacturing......................................................................................

39.8
97.5
87.4
12.2
6.4
67.7
26.2

17.1
75.6
79.6
6.5
2.3
64.7
23.4

-22.7
-21.9
-7.8
-5.6
-4.1
-3.0
-2.8

-8.1
-2.5
-.9
-6.0
-9.7
-.5
-1.1

56.4

54.0

-2.4

-.4

Fiber, yarn, and thread mills.................................................................
Leather and hide tanning and finishing................................................
Other leather and allied product manufacturing...................................
Tobacco manufacturing..........................................................................
Fabric m ills.............................................................................................
Nonmetallic mineral mining and quarrying............................................
Nonferrous metal (except aluminum) production and processing.....
Apparel accessories and other apparel manufacturing.......................

10.5
2.6
2.1
34.2
22.1
17.5
21.8
3.8

8.2
1.2
1.0
33.1
21.1
16.7
21.1
3.3

-2.4
-1.4
-1.2
-1.0
-.9
-.8
-.6
-.6

-.5
-7.7
-7.7
-.3
-.4
-.5
-.3
-1.5

Largest d e c lin e s

3152
3251
211
3133
3151
3221
2121
3252

3131
3161
3169
3122
3132
2123
3314
3159

G o o d s -p ro d u c in g s e c to r
Agriculture.

Being the industry with the largest projected
declines in employment, farms are expected to repeat their
historical trend by shedding an additional 324,000 jobs and
settling at 1.6 million workers by 2012. The agriculture sector
as a whole is projected to experience the largest declines in
employment for any major sector, 340,000 at a 1.6-percent an­
nual rate. Real output, however, is projected to expand annu­
ally by 1.6 percent to $351.6 billion in 2012, up from $299.6
76 Monthly Labor Review


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February

2004

billion in 2002. The persistent dichotomy between farm em­
ployment and production is due predominately to continued
productivity growth, which is facilitated by industry consoli­
dations and more efficient farm machinery. The negative
trends in employment is expected to be moderated somewhat
by the rising demand for organic farm produce, increases in
the number of farmer-owned and -operated cooperatives, and
targeted government assistance, which all bode relatively well
for small- to medium-sized farms. Support activities for agri­
culture and forestry, which include such services as farm man-

agement, cultivation, and harvesting, is expected to be the
only agriculture component posting employment gains. Em­
ployment, rising by a modest 0.7-percent rate between 2002
and 2012, is expected to reach 133,000 by 2012.

Mining.

Jobs in the mining sector are projected to decline
at a 1.3-percent annual rate and reach 451,000 in 2012. This
represents a loss of 61,000jobs and a continuation of its 19922002 historical declines. The persistent long-term employment
reductions are due to technology driven productivity in­
creases, industry consolidation, stringent environm ental
regulations, and international com petition.12 Real output is
also expected to be reduced at an annual rate o f 0.6 percent,
contracting to its 1992 level o f $155 billion. Setting the pace
for this sector’s employment declines, jobs in metal ore min­
ing, which are subject to industry consolidations and labor
saving technologies, are projected to decline at an average
annual rate o f 4.8 percent. However, because metals are used
primarily as raw materials by other industries, the metal ore
mining industry is influenced by the strength of the general
economy and is expected to be the only production-based
mining sector to experience increases in output.
This scenario is juxtaposed against the coal mining indus­
try, which is expected to be one of the fastest declining indus
tries, both in terms of employment and output. Employment is
expected to contract by an average annual 3.5 percent, while
output is projected to decline by 1.1 percent. Although coal
mining is the cheapest, m ost abundant fossil fuel and ac­
counts for half o f this country’s electricity production, em­
ploym ent and production in this industry will be most influ­
enced by how electric utility companies respond to stricter
environm ental regulations. As the costs of compliance in­
creases, through, for example, the installation of costly clean­
ing and monitoring equipment, the demand for coal is expected
to shrink. Therefore, output is expected to contract slightly
ahead of its 1992 level of $22 billion from its 2002 level of $26
billion.
Accounting for the majority of this sector’s employment in
1992, the oil and gas extraction industry will reverse its relative
prominence by declining from 182,000jobs in 1992 to 88,000 by
2012. The 34,000 jobs lost at a 3.2-percent annual rate between
2002 and 2012 ranks this industry among the economy’s fastest
and largest source of employment declines. Fluctuations in glo­
bal oil and gas prices, strict environment regulations, limited ac­
cess to Federal lands, and foreign competition will have a nega­
tive impact on this industry’s real output13— declining by an
annual rate of 0.9 percent to $80 billion by 2012.

Construction. The construction industry, which is pro­
jected to add more than a million jobs by 2012 at a 1.4-percent
average rate o f growth, is the goods-producing sector’s only
source o f employment growth. Reaching an employment level


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of 7.8 million in 2012, the construction industry is also among
the econom y’s top-10 largest source of employment growth.
Real output, however, is projected to increase at a tamer an­
nual rate of 1.7-percent— slower than the 2.8-percent annual
rate achieved during the previous decade and almost half the
projected rate for the economy as a whole.
Delayed replacement or remodeling of industrial plants and
greater demand for aging-population related nursing, extended
care, and high-technology medical treatment facilities will pro­
pel nonresidential construction to lead this aggregate seg­
ment. However, technology enhancements will dampen de­
mand for new commercial construction, as nontraditional work
and re ta il e n v iro n m e n ts such as te le c o n fe re n c in g ,
telecommuting, and electronic shopping continue to prolifer­
ate. Total nonresidential investment in structures is therefore
expected to grow by 1.8 percent over the 2002-12 period.
Residential construction, closely tied to demographic fac­
tors will grow at a 2.1-percent pace throughout the 2002-12
period. As baby-boomers reach their peak earning years, the
demand for upgraded homes, second homes, and assisted
living housing will increase. In addition, as their children, the
echo boomers, augm ent the younger age groups, and the
number of immigrants increases, the demand for single-family
housing and rental apartments also is projected to increase.

Manufacturing.

This sector’s share of total employment is
expected to continue to decline, while its share of total output is
projected to be maintained—reversing its trend in the prior de­
cade. Reflecting an average annual employment decline of 0.9
percent and an absolute job loss of 1.5 million from 1992 to 2002,
manufacturing employment represented only 10.6 percent of to­
tal employment in 2002, down from almost 14 percent in 1992.
During this decade, manufacturing employment peaked in 1998
at 17.5 million, up from 16.8 million in 1992. The projected, pro­
ductivity-led declines in this sector’s employment, even though
relatively moderate at 158,000, will slightly lower its share of total
employment to 9.2 percent in 2012. This translates into 15.2 mil­
lion wage and salary manufacturing jobs maintained in 2012.
Even though the 15.3 million jobs counted in 2002 represents the
trough of the 2001 recession, the 2.3 million jobs lost since 1998
are not expected to be recovered.
Up against the dramatic historical output gains in the ser­
vice-providing sector, the 2.3-percent average annual in­
creases and the $773.4 billion worth of additional real output
that was generated by the manufacturing sector between 1992
and 2002 was not enough for this sector to m aintain its 25.9
percent nominal output share in 1992— dropping to 21.1 per­
cent by 2002. However, due to somewhat moderate output
growth expectations in the service-sector and an accelerated
m anufacturing output growth prospect over the projected
period, manufacturing’s 2002 share of total nominal output is
projected to be maintained. Consistent with overall economic
Monthly Labor Review

February

2004

77

Industry Output and Employment

growth, real output for manufacturing is expected to increase
at an average annual rate of 3.4 percent between 2002 and
2012— faster than the 1992-2002 historical 2.3 percent rate,
and rivals the service-producing sector’s projected 3.5 per­
cent annual growth rate. Led by productivity gains and strong
demand by consumers, businesses, and exports, m anufactur­
ing output is expected to increase by $ 1.5 trillion to reach $5.4
trillion by 2012.
The industry manufacturing groups that will lead the pace
of output growth are: computer and electronic products manu­
facturing (11.8 percent); plastics and rubber products manufac­
turing (4.1 percent); machinery manufacturing (4.0 percent); and
fabricated metal products manufacturing (3.4 percent). The in­
dustry groups that will contribute the strongest drags on em­
ployment are: apparel manufacturing (-11.0 percent); textile mills
(6.1 percent); and leather and allied product manufacturing (4.0
percent). These industries are also projected to be the only manu­
facturing sources with declining output.
The com puter and electronic products m anufacturing
group, which includes computer, communications, semicon­
ductor, and navigational production, highlights the dichotom ist relationship between the growth of manufacturing out­
put and the productivity led declines in employment. For ex­
ample, with a 24.2-percent projected growth rate, the com­
puter and peripheral equipment manufacturing industry has
the fastest growing real output of any detailed industry for
which b ls prepares projections. Reaching $2.3 trillion by 2012,
a $2.0 trillion increase over its 2002 output level, this industry
is also the econom y’s largest source o f projected output
growth. (See table 7.) However, due to the introduction of
new technology and automated manufacturing processes,
this industry’s employment is expected to exceed its 2.7 per­
cent historical rate of decline, and lose 68,000 jobs over its
2002 level o f 250,000.14
Communication equipment, with a projected output level
of $268 billion, is this group’s second largest industry. Grow­
ing demand for wireless phones as quality and services im­
prove, along with enhanced wireless computer applications
and evolving forms of Internet connectivity will expand the
output for the communications equipment industry annually
by 10.4 percent, the econom y’s second fastest rate.
Real output for the plastics and rubber m anufacturing
group is projected to increase by $8.2 billion to reach $244.6
billion in 2012. Employment is expected to reach 991,000 by
2012— a 138,000 increase from the 2002 level. The resulting
1.5-percent average annual rate of growth in employment
makes plastics and rubber manufacturing the fastest and larg­
est growing group within the manufacture sector. Plastics
product manufacturing, the dominant industry within this
group, primarily molds plastics for manufacturing industries.
Many of the most rapidly growing industries in the economy,
including construction and industries manufacturing elec­
78 Monthly Labor Review

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February

2004

tronics, computers, communication equipment, and motor ve­
hicles, use plastic products as an intermediate input in pro­
duction. Demand by these industries will sustain employment
and output growth in the plastics products industry through­
out the projected period.
The industries within the apparel and textile mill groups
are all among the most rapidly declining industries in terms of
employment over the 2002-12 period. Because of its laborintensive nature, import competition and changing trade regu­
lations are the most important factors behind the apparel
industry’s projected em ploym ent declines o f 246,000, to
112,000 in 2012— greater than any other industry’s reduction
except agriculture. Transforming textile mill fabrics into cloth­
ing and accessories, this industry’s output is also projected
to decline by 7.6 percent annually, which is the econom y’s
most aggressive pace. Real output is expected to contract
from $50.0 billion in 2002 to $22.8 billion in 2012 as new auto­
mation, fierce retailer cost-cutting pressures, and consolida­
tions all negatively influence this industry. Echoing the de­
cline of the domestic apparel industry, the textile mills group
will experience similar downward trends in employment and
output. Employment, projected to contract almost by half, is
expected to decline by 136,000 to 157,000 in 2012, while real
output declines by 2.2 percent annually, to $35.8 billion in
2012.
In 1992 and 2002, the largest share of nominal manufactur­
ing output, more than 15 percent, was produced by the trans­
portation equipment manufacturing group. By 2012, even
though the percent share comanded by the computer elec­
tronic production manufacturing industry will run a close sec­
ond, transportation equipment manufacturing will maintain
its relative dominance. Highlighting this fact, transportation
equipment manufacturing, which includes motor vehicle, aero­
space, railroad, and shipbuilding is the largest manufacturer
employer, with about 1.8 million workers in 2002. Amid a rela­
tively small drop in employment over the projected period,
this industry group will continue to be manufacturing’s domi­
nant source of employment. Jobs in aerospace product and parts
manufacturing, the principal employment sector within transpor­
tation equipment manufacturing, is projected to decline by 83,000
workers to 386,000 by 2012. Real output for the aerospace prod­
uct and parts industry, which produces aircraft, guided missiles,
and space vehicles, declined from $138 billion in 1992 to $116
billion in 2002. The continued attention given to the Nation’s
security will increase the demand for military aircraft and equip­
ment. However, output is expected to maintain its 2002 level as
import competition intensifies.
Motor vehicle manufacturing production, the principal sector
within transportation equipment manufacturing, in terms of out­
put, stood at $236 billion in 2002. Facilitated by healthy produc­
tivity gains, output is expected to increase by 3.1 percent annu­
ally to $319 billion by 2012. This, however, represents a marginal

slowdown from the 3.6-percent growth experienced over the last
decade. Output growth will be limited due to the anticipated slow­
down in the growth of the driving age population, competition
from foreign producers, improvements in vehicle quality that ex­
tend longevity, and safety and environmental regulations that
increase production costs. Motor vehicle manufacturing employ­
ment in 2002 was 267,000— approximately the same level as that
in 1992, and is expected to decline slightly by 0.6 percent annu­
ally from 2002 to 2012. The resulting decline to 251,000jobs by
2012 will be a consequence of companies continuing to absorb
productivity-enhancing technologies such as robotics, comput­
ers, and factory automation.
T h e b ls p r o je c t io n for the goods-producing sector speaks for
the economy as a whole: strong productivity led output gains,
coupled with relatively marginal employment increases. Even
though the service-providing industries will rem ain the
econom y’s most dominant sector, the pace of output growth
will be on par with its goods-providing counterpart. This rep­
resents a significant divergence from the service-providing
sector’s historical stronger rate of growth. Business fixed in­
vestment, the g d p component with the fastest growth rate, is
expected to be the main catalyst behind this caveat. Even
though demand from personal consumption will remain the

dominant source of output and employment generated in 2012,
purchases of new construction and equipment by businesses
will be responsible for the accelerated pace of the goodsproducing sector’s projected output.
Furthermore, as the service-providing sector’s pace of em­
ployment growth is expected to slightly decelerate, the goodsproducing sector will witness a marginal expansion. This is a
result of the manufacturing sector stabilizing its previously
persistent employment declines and the positive job growth
posted by the construction industry. Machinery, fabricated
metal, and transportation equipment manufacturing are all
large sectors that highlight this expected manufacturing phe­
nomenon. Reflecting an ever-evolving economy, the desire
by businesses to enhance productivity, and an aging popula­
tion, the service-providing sector’s most influential indus­
tries are professional and business services, and education
and health services.
Mirroring trends in many industrialized countries, the latest
round of bls projections sets productivity gains as the medium
through which output outpaces the projected growth in the la­
bor force. In addition, its main themes are expected to be an
economy that is dominated by the service-providing sector in
terms of employment and output share, but witnesses significant
gains in the goods-producing sector’s rate of growth.
□

N o te s
1 This article uses the gross duplicated output concept. Gross dupli­
cated output measures not only g d p , or all final demand purchases of
new goods and services, but also all new goods and services produced as
intermediate goods for use in further production. Real output is mea­
sured as a 1996 based chain-weighted Fisher index and is used for
historical rate of growth comparisons. Real output on an industry basis
does not add to their higher level aggregates because of chain weight­
ing. See Charles Steindel, “Chain-weighting: The New Approach to
Measuring g d p , ” Current Issues in Economics and Finance, Federal
Reserve Board of New York, December 1995.
2 Providing a more accurate measure of the relative importance of
aggregated sectors o f the economy, current-dollar output estimates
were used in lieu of chain-weighted measures. See J. Steven Landefeld,
Brent R. Moulton, and Cindy M. Vojtech, “Chained-Dollar Indexes:
Issues, Tips on Their Use, and Upcoming Changes,” Survey of Current
Business, US Department of Commerce, November 2003, pp. 8-16.
3 For further discussion on these factors, see the articles by Mitra
Tossi, pp. 37-57; and Betty Su, pp. 23-36, this issue.

eign manufacturing,” Monthly Labor Review, June 2002, pp. 51-65.
7 Also, see “Digital Economy 2002” (Department o f Commerce,
Economics and Statistics Administration, February 2002).
8 For more information on nursing care and residential mental health
facilities see, A. Jones, “The National Nursing Home Survey: 1999
Summary” vol. 13, no. 152 (Department o f Health and Human Ser­
vices, National Center for Health Statistics, Vital Health Statistics, 2002).
9 For more information on trends affecting hospitals see, Trend
Watch Chartbook 2003 (The American Hospital Association, Washing­
ton, DC, July 2003).
10 See Debra E. Gerald and William J. Hussar, “Projections of Edu­
cation Statistics to 2012” (U.S. Department o f Education, National
Center for Education Statistics, Washington, D C , August 2002).
11 Trend Watch Chartbook 2003, July 2003.

4 This is the first set of b l s projections developed from the 2002
North American Industrial Classification System ( n a i c s ) ; past projec­
tions utilized the 1987 Standard Industrial Classification System (sic).

12 Also see International Energy Outlook (Department of Energy,
Energy Information Administration, January 2002) and R. F. Balazik, L.
McCartan, D.E. Morse, and S. F. Sibley, “Annual Review 2001,” Mining
Engineering, May 2002.

5 The Business Cycle Dating Committee, National Bureau of Eco­
nomic Research, determined in July 2003 that the 2001 recession
began in March 2001 and ended in November 2001.

13 For further information on the oil and gas extraction industry, see
“Annual Energy Outlook 2002” (Department of Energy, Energy Infor­
mation Administration, January 2002.)

6 For more in-depth reading on the comparison of manufacturing
productivities across countries, see Aaron E. Cobet and Gregory A.
Wilson, “Comparing 50 years of labor productivity in U.S. and for-

14 Also see Christopher Kask and Edward Sieber, “Productivity
growth in ‘high-tech’ manufacturing industries,” Monthly Labor Re­
view, March 2002, pp. 16-31.


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Monthly Labor Review

February

2004

79

Employment outlook: 2002-12

Occupational employment
projections to 2012
Employment in professional and related and in service occupations
are expected to increase the fastest and add the most jobs
from 2002 to 2012, while office and administrative support
occupations should grow about half as fast as the total;
production occupations should grow very slowly
Daniel E. Hecker

otal employment is projected to increase
by 21.3 million jobs over the 2002-12
period, rising to 165.3 million, according
to the latest projections of the Bureau of Labor
S ta tistic s.1 T his increase represents about
600,000 more jobs than were added over the
previous 10-year period (1992-2002). The
projected 14.8-percent increase, however, is less
than the 16.8-percent increase of the previous
10-year period. Self employment is projected to
decline 2.3 percent, from 11.5 to 11.2 million.
This article discusses a number of aspects of
the projections along with related information:

T

•
•

Daniel E. Hecker
and David S. Frank
(who developed the
tables for this article)
are economists In the
Office of
Occupational
Statistics and
Employment
Projections,
Bureau of Labor
Statistics.
E-mail:
Hecker.Daniel@bls.gov
Frank.David@bls.gov

80

•

In this article, projected employment is analyzed
from two perspectives— percent change and nu­
merical change— because one can be large and

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changes in the structure of employment
at the major occupational group level;
the detailed occupations2 that are pro­
jected to grow fastest as well as those
with the largest numerical increases and
decreases, along with their current edu­
cational and training requirements and
earnings; and
the total job openings projected to occur
due to growth in the economy and the
net replacem ent needs resulting from
w orkers who leave the labor force or
transfer to other occupations

February 2004

the other small, depending on the size of employ­
ment in the base year. The following example
using data for two occupations generally requir­
ing the same level of education— a bachelor’s
degree— illustrates the importance of viewing job
outlook from both perspectives:
Employment of environmental engineers is
projected to grow twice as fast as employ­
ment of accountants and auditors over the
2002-12 period, 38.2 percent, compared
with 19.5 percent. However, the accoun­
tants and auditors occupation is projected
to add more than 11 times the number of
new jobs (205,000 compared with 18,000),
because employment was so much larger
than for environmental engineers in 2002
(1,055,000 compared with 47,000).

M a jo r o c c u p a tio n a l groups
Among the major occupational groups, employ­
ment in the two largest in 2002— professional and
related occupations and service occupations—
will increase the fastest and add the most jobs
from 2002 to 2012. (See table 1.) These major
groups, which are on opposite ends of the edu­
cational attainment and earnings spectrum, are
expected to provide more than half of the total
job growth from 2002 to 2012. Employment is
projected to grow about as fast as overall em­
ployment in management, business, and finan-

Table 1.

Employment by major occupational group, 2002 and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
E m p lo y m e n t
2 0 0 0 s ta n d a rd o c c u p a tio n c la s s ific a tio n c o d e a n d title

Num ber

Change
P e rc e n t d is trib u tio n

2002

2012

2002

Num ber

P e rc e n t

2012

00-0000

Total, all occupations...............................................

144,014

165,319

100.0

100.0

21,305

14.8

11-1300
15-2900
31-3900
41-0000
43-0000
45-0000
47-0000
49-0000
51-0000
53-0000

Management, business, and financial occupations........
Professional and related occupations...........................
Service occupations...................................................
Sales and related occupations....................................
Office and administrative support occupations...............
Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations....................
Construction and extraction occupations.......................
Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations.........
Production occupations...............................................
Transportation and material moving occupations...........

15,501
27,687
26,569
15,260
23,851
1,072
7,292
5,696
11,258
9,828

17,883
34,147
31,905
17,231
25,464
1,107
8,388
6,472
11,612
11,111

10.8
19.2
18.4
10.6
16.6
.7
5.1
4.0
7.8
6.8

10.8
20.7
19.3
10.4
15.4
.7
5.1
3.9
7.0
6.7

2,382
6,459
5,336
1,971
1,613
35
1,096
776
354
1,282

15.4
23.3
20.1
12.9
6.8
3.3
15.0
13.6
3.1
13.0

NOTE: Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding.

cial occupations and in construction and extraction occupa­
tions. Employment in installation, maintenance, and repair;
transportation and material moving; and sales and related
occupations will grow somewhat more slowly. The three slow­
est growing groups— all with rates less than 7 percent— are
office and administrative support occupations; farming, fish­
ing, and forestry occupations; and production occupations.
As a result of the different growth rates among the major
occupational groups, the occupational distribution of total
employment will change somewhat by the year 2012, but the
relative ranking of the groups by employment size is not ex­
pected to change. Professional and related occupations will
continue to rank first, while farming, fishing, and forestry oc­
cupations will continue to rank last. Professional and related
and service occupations will significantly increase their rela­
tive share of employment— by 1.5 and 0.9 percentage points,
respectively. However, office and administrative support oc­
cupations and production occupations should decrease sig­
nificantly— by 1.2 and 0.8 points, respectively. (See table 1.)
The growth of occupational groups (and occupations) is
determined, in large part, by growth in industries in which
they are concentrated. For example, professional occupations
are projected to grow the fastest, in large part because they
are concentrated in some fast-growing industries such as
healthcare and social assistance; and professional, scientific,
and technical services; while production occupations are pro­
jected to grow very slowly, largely because 7 out of 10 are in
the declining manufacturing sector.3
The num ber o f management, business, and financial
workers is projected to grow by 2.4 million from 2002 to 2012.
Within this occupational group, about one-fifth of the new
jobs will be in professional, scientific, and technical services,


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which include management, scientific, and technical consult­
ing, and accounting, tax preparation, bookkeeping, and pay­
roll services. About 1 new job in 8 is projected for finance and
insurance, and 1 in 9, for healthcare and social assistance.
The self-employed in this group, accounting for one-fifth of
the total, are projected to decline 5.6 percent. Overall pro­
jected growth among management, business, and financial
workers is affected by the decline of farmers and ranchers,
most self-employed, by 238,000. (See table 2.) Excluding farm­
ers and ranchers, this major group is projected to increase
18.3 percent. The self-employed, excluding self-employed
farmers and ranchers, are projected to increase 4.0 percent,
with the largest increase for management analysts.
Employment in professional and related occupations is
projected to grow the fastest and to add more workers (6.5
million) than any other major group. Three-tenths of the
growth in these occupations is projected to take place in
healthcare and social services, a quarter in government, and a
seventh in professional, scientific, and technical services.
There are eight occupational subgroups within professional
and related occupations. Three occupational subgroups—
education, training, and library; healthcare practitioners and
technical; and computer and mathematical should account for
three-quarters of the job growth.
A 6.1-percent increase is projected for self-em ployed
professional and related occupations. Most growth among
self-employed is projected for two subgroups— arts, design,
entertainment, sports, and media occupations and computer
and mathematical occupations.
Education, training, and library occupations are projected
to grow faster than the average for all occupations, adding
2.1 million jobs as shown on p. 97 (also, see table 2):
Text continues on p. 97

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

81

Occupational Employment

1 Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012
[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Employment
Number
2000 standard occupation classification code and title

Change

Percent
distribution
Number Percent

2002

00-0000

2012

Total, all occupations ................................................................................................... 144,014 165,319

Total job
openings
due to
growth
and net
replace­
ments,
2002-121

2002

2012

100.0

100.0

21,305

14.8

56,305

11-1300

Management, business, and financial occupations...................................................

15,501

17,883

10.8

10.8

2,382

15.4

5,319

11-0000
11-1000
11-1011
11-1021
11-1031
11-2000
11-2011
11-2020
11-2021
11-2022
11-2031
11-3000
11-3011
11-3021
11-3031
11-3040
11-3051
11-3061
11-3071
11-9000
11-9010
11-9011
11-9012
11-9021
11-9030
11-9031
11-9032
11-9033
11-9039
11-9041
11-9051
11-9061
11-9071
11-9081
11-9111
11-9121
11-9131
11-9141
11-9151
11-9199

Management occupations....................................................................................
Top executives.................................................................................................
Chief executives...........................................................................................
General and operations managers................................................................
Legislators....................................................................................................
Advertising, marketing, promotions, public relations, and sales managers .......
Advertising and promotions managers..........................................................
Marketing and sales managers.....................................................................
Marketing managers ................................................................................
Sales managers.......................................................................................
Public relations managers............................................................................
Operations specialties managers......................................................................
Administrative services managers ................................................................
Computer and information systems managers .............................................
Financial managers......................................................................................
Human resources managers.........................................................................
Industrial production managers.....................................................................
Purchasing managers..................................................................................
Transportation, storage, and distribution managers......................................
Other management occupations.......................................................................
Agricultural managers..................................................................................
Farm, ranch, and other agricultural managers..........................................
Farmers and ranchers..............................................................................
Construction managers................................................................................
Education administrators..............................................................................
Education administrators, preschool and child care center/program.........
Education administrators, elementary and secondary school....................
Education administrators, postsecondary.................................................
Education administrators, all other............................................................
Engineering managers.................................................................................
Food service managers................................................................................
Funeral directors..........................................................................................
Gaming managers........................................................................................
Lodging managers .......................................................................................
Medical and health services managers.........................................................
Natural sciences managers..........................................................................
Postmasters and mail superintendents.........................................................
Property, real estate, and community association managers .......................
Social and community service managers......................................................
All other managers.......................................................................................

10,056
2,669
553
2,049
67
700
85
546
203
343
69
1,807
321
284
599
202
182
108
111
4,880
1,376
218
1,158
389
427
58
217
125
27
212
386
24
6
69
244
45
25
293
129
1,256

11,277
3,138
645
2,425
68
885
107
693
246
448
85
2,163
384
387
709
242
197
113
133
5,090
1,149
229
920
435
527
77
262
157
32
231
430
26
7
73
315
51
25
330
164
1,325

7.0
1.9
.4
1.4
.0
.5
.1
.4
.1
.2
.0
1.3
.2
.2
.4
.1
.1
.1
.1
3.4
1.0
.2
.8
.3
.3
.0
.2
.1
.0
.1
.3
.0
.0
.0
.2
.0
.0
.2
.1
.9

6.8
1.9
.4
1.5
.0
.5
.1
.4
.1
.3
.1
1.3
.2
.2
.4
.1
.1
.1
.1
3.1
.7
.1
.6
.3
.3
.0
.2
.1
.0
.1
.3
.0
.0
.0
.2
.0
.0
.2
.1
.8

1,221
469
93
376
1
185
21
148
43
105
16
356
63
103
109
39
14
5
22
210
-227
11
-238
47
101
19
45
32
5
20
44
2
1
5
71
5
0
37
36
69

12.1
17.6
16.7
18.4
1.1
26.5
25.0
27.1
21.3
30.5
23.4
19.7
19.8
36.1
18.3
19.4
7.9
4.8
19.7
4.3
-16.5
5.1
-20.6
12.0
23.6
32.0
20.7
25.9
19.1
9.2
11.5
6.6
12.4
6.6
29.3
11.3
-.5
12.8
27.7
5.5

3,192
969
197
762
9
313
37
249
81
168
28
671
126
154
195
73
50
29
44
1,240
117
49
68
117
207
33
99
63
12
62
107
9
2
16
119
14
5
92
60
314

13-0000
13-1000
13-1011
13-1020
13-1021
13-1022
13-1023
13-1030
13-1031
13-1032
13-1041

Business and financial operations occupations ....................................................
Business operations specialists .......................................................................
Agents and business managers of artists, performers, and athletes.............
Buyers and purchasing agents.....................................................................
Purchasing agents and buyers, farm products..........................................
Wholesale and retail buyers, except farm products..................................
Purchasing agents, except wholesale, retail, and farm products...............
Claims adjusters, appraisers, examiners, and investigators.........................
Claims adjusters, examiners, and investigators........................................
Insurance appraisers, auto damage..........................................................
Compliance officers, except agriculture, construction, health and safety, and
transportation ..........................................................................................
Cost estimators............................................................................................
Emergency management specialists ............................................................
Human resources, training, and labor relations specialists4.........................
Employment, recruitment, and placement specialists...............................
Compensation, benefits, and job analysis specialists...............................
Training and development specialists.......................................................
Management analysts..................................................................................
Meeting and convention planners.................................................................
All other business operations specialists5.....................................................
Financial specialists.........................................................................................

5,445
3,177
15
419
19
155
245
241
227
14

6,606
3,910
19
455
21
162
273
275
260
16

3.8
2.2
.0
.3
.0
.1
.2
.2
.2
.0

4.0
2.4
.0
.3
.0
.1
.2
.2
.2
.0

1,162
733
4
36
2
7
27
34
32
2

21.3
23.1
27.8
8.6
10.2
4.3
11.2
14.0
14.2
11.7

2,127
1,295
7
144
8
47
88
64
60
3

158
188
11
474
175
91
209
577
37
1,056
2,268

173
223
14
606
223
116
267
753
45
1,346
2,696

.1
.1
.0
.3
.1
.1
.1
.4
.0
.7
1.6

.1
.1
.0
.4
.1
.1
.2
.5
.0
.8
1.6

15
35
3
131
48
25
58
176
8
290
429

9.8
18.6
28.2
27.7
27.3
28.0
27.9
30.4
21.3
27.5
18.9

52
77
6
204
75
39
90
255
16
470
832

13-1051
13-1061
13-1070
13-1071
13-1072
13-1073
13-1111
13-1121
13-1198
13-2000

82

Monthly Labor Review


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February 2004

Table 2.

Continued— Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Change

Employment
Percent
distribution

Number
2000 standard occupation classification code and title

Number Percent
2002

2012

2002

2012

Total job
openings
due to
growth
and net
replace­
ments,
2002-121

13-2011
13-2021
13-2031
13-2041
13-2050
13-2051
13-2052
13-2053
13-2061
13-2070
13-2071
13-2072
13-2080
13-2081
13-2082
13-2099

Accountants and auditors..............................................................................
Appraisers and assessors of real estate.......................................................
Budget analysts.............................................................................................
Credit analysts ..............................................................................................
Financial analysts and advisors....................................................................
Financial analysts......................................................................................
Personal financial advisors .......................................................................
Insurance underwriters..............................................................................
Financial examiners......................................................................................
Loan counselors and officers........................................................................
Loan counselors........................................................................................
Loan officers..............................................................................................
Tax examiners, collectors, preparers, and revenue agents...........................
Tax examiners, collectors, and revenue agents........................................
Tax preparers............................................................................................
All other financial specialists.........................................................................

1,055
88
62
66
400
172
126
102
25
255
31
223
154
75
79
162

1,261
104
71
78
486
204
170
112
27
302
37
266
176
79
98
190

0.7
.1
.0
.0
.3
.1
.1
.1
.0
.2
.0
.2
.1
.1
.1
.1

0.8
.1
.0
.0
.3
.1
.1
.1
.0
.2
.0
.2
.1
.0
.1
.1

205
16
9
12
86
32
44
10
2
48
6
42
22
4
18
28

19.5
17.6
14.0
18.7
21.5
18.7
34.6
10.0
8.9
18.7
17.8
18.8
14.4
5.0
23.2
17.6

405
34
19
23
146
58
60
28
8
89
11
78
52
21
32
57

15-2900

Professional and related occupations.......................................................................

27,687

34,147

19.2

20.7

6,459

23.3

11,794

2.1
2.0
.0
.3
.5
.3
.2
.4
.3
.1
.2
.1
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0

2.5
2.4
.0
.3
.6
.3
.2
.4
.4
.1
.2
.2
.2
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0

1,051
1,043
7
73
307
179
128
153
184
49
94
106
70
8
2
0
4
1
1

34.8
35.8
29.9
14.6
45.5
45.5
45.5
30.3
39.4
44.2
37.4
57.0
36.5
7.4
14.9
-1.0
6.2
4.8
11.8

1,465
1,429
10
190
374
218
156
216
237
60
122
128
92
36
9
1
17
6
2

15-0000
15-1000
15-1011
15-1021
15-1030
15-1031
15-1032
15-1041
15-1051
15-1061
15-1071
15-1081
15-1099
15-2000
15-2011
15-2021
15-2031
15-2041
15-2090

Computer and mathematical science occupations................................................
Computer specialists.........................................................................................
Computer and information scientists, research.............................................
Computer programmers................................................................................
Computer software engineers.......................................................................
Computer software engineers, applications..............................................
Computer software engineers, systems software .....................................
Computer support specialists........................................................................
Computer systems analysts..........................................................................
Database administrators...............................................................................
Network and computer systems administrators............................................
Network systems and data communications analysts...................................
All other computer specialists .......................................................................
Mathematical science occupations ...................................................................
Actuaries.......................................................................................................
Mathematicians.............................................................................................
Operations research analysts .......................................................................
Statisticians...................................................................................................
Miscellaneous mathematical science occupations........................................

3,018
2,911
23
499
675
394
281
507
468
110
251
186
192
107
15
3
62
20
7

4,069
3,954
30
571
982
573
409
660
653
159
345
292
262
115
18
3
66
21
8

17-0000
17-1000
17-1010
17-1011
17-1012
17-1020
17-1021
17-1022
17-1099
17-2000
17-2011
17-2021
17-2031
17-2041
17-2051
17-2061
17-2070
17-2071
17-2072
17-2081
17-2110
17-2111

Architecture and engineering occupations............................................................
Architects, surveyors, and cartographers..........................................................
Architects, except na val................................................................................
Architects, except landscape and naval....................................................
Landscape architects ................................................................................
Surveyors, cartographers, and photogrammetrists.......................................
Cartographers and photogrammetrists .....................................................
Surveyors..................................................................................................
All other architects, surveyors, and cartographers2......................................
Engineers.........................................................................................................
Aerospace engineers....................................................................................
Agricultural engineers ...................................................................................
Biomedical engineers....................................................................................
Chemical engineers ......................................................................................
Civil engineers...............................................................................................
Computer hardware engineers......................................................................
Electrical and electronics engineers..............................................................
Electrical engineers...................................................................................
Electronics engineers, except computer...................................................
Environmental engineers ..............................................................................
Industrial engineers, including health and safety..........................................
Health and safety engineers, except mining safety engineers and
inspectors...............................................................................................
Industrial engineers...................................................................................
Marine engineers and naval architects .........................................................
Materials engineers.......................................................................................
Mechanical engineers...................................................................................
Mining and geological engineers, including mining safety engineers ............

2,587
204
136
113
23
64
9
56
3
1,478
78
3
8
33
228
74
292
156
136
47
194

2,809
233
161
133
28
68
10
58
4
1,587
74
3
10
33
246
78
309
160
149
65
213

1.8
.1
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
1.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.2
.1
.2
.1
.1
.0
.1

1.7
.1
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
1.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.0
.2
.1
.1
.0
.1

222
29
25
20
5
4
1
2
0
109
-4
0
2
0
18
5
17
4
13
18
20

8.6
14.1
18.1
17.3
22.2
5.6
15.1
4.2
10.9
7.3
-5.2
10.3
26.1
.4
8.0
6.1
5.7
2.5
9.4
38.2
10.1

802
67
40
32
8
26
4
21
1
431
19
1
3
10
55
17
74
34
40
26
67

36
158
5
24
215
5

38
175
5
25
225
5

.0
.1
.0
.0
.1
.0

.0
.1
.0
.0
.1
.0

3
17
0
1
10
0

7.9
10.6
-5.0
4.1
4.8
-2.7

11
55
2
7
69
2

17-2112
17-2121
17-2131
17-2141
17-2151


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Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

83

Occupational Employment

Table 2.

Continued— Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Employment

Change

Percent
distribution

Number
2000 standard occupation classification code and title

Number Percent
2002

2012

2002

2012

Total job
openings
due to
growth
and net
replace­
ments,
2002-121

17-2161
17-2171
17-2199
17-3000
17-3010
17-3011
17-3012
17-3013
17-3020
17-3021
17-3022
17-3023
17-3024
17-3025
17-3026
17-3027
17-3031
17-3099

Nuclear engineers.........................................................................................
Petroleum engineers.....................................................................................
All other engineers ........................................................................................
Drafters, engineering, and mapping technicians...............................................
Drafters4........................................................................................................
Architectural and civil drafters...................................................................
Electrical and electronics drafters.............................................................
Mechanical drafters...................................................................................
Engineering technicians, except d ra fte d ....................................................
Aerospace engineering and operations technicians ..................................
Civil engineering technicians.....................................................................
Electrical and electronic engineering technicians .....................................
Electro-mechanical technicians.................................................................
Environmental engineering technicians ....................................................
Industrial engineering technicians.............................................................
Mechanical engineering technicians.........................................................
Surveying and mapping technicians .............................................................
All other drafters, engineering, and mapping technicians2 ............................

16
14
243
905
216
106
38
72
478
15
92
204
31
19
62
55
60
150

16
12
267
990
222
110
38
74
526
15
99
224
35
24
67
61
74
167

0.0
.0
.2
.6
.2
.1
.0
.1
.3
.0
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1

0.0
.0
.2
.6
.1
.1
.0
.0
.3
.0
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1

0
-1
24
85
6
4
0
1
48
0
7
20
4
5
5
6
14
17

-0.1
-9.8
9.7
9.4
2.8
4.2
.7
1.9
10.1
1.5
7.6
10.0
11.5
28.4
8.7
11.0
23.1
11.3

5
4
70
304
67
34
11
22
148
3
26
63
10
9
18
18
36
53

19-0000
19-1000
19-1010
19-1020
19-1021
19-1022
19-1023
19-1029
19-1030
19-1031
19-1032
19-1040
19-1041
19-1042
19-1099
19-2000
19-2010
19-2011
19-2012
19-2021
19-2030
19-2031
19-2032
19-2040
19-2041
19-2042
19-2043
19-2099
19-3000
19-3011
19-3020
19-3021
19-3022
19-3030
19-3031
19-3032
19-3041
19-3051
19-3090
19-3091
19-3092
19-3093
19-3094
19-3098
19-4000
19-4011
19-4021
19-4031

Life, physical, and social science occupations......................................................
Life scientists.....................................................................................................
Agricultural and food scientists .....................................................................
Biological scientists.......................................................................................
Biochemists and biophysicists ..................................................................
Microbiologists ..........................................................................................
Zoologists and wildlife biologists...............................................................
Biological scientists, all o th e r....................................................................
Conservation scientists and foresters...........................................................
Conservation scientists .............................................................................
Foresters...................................................................................................
Medical scientists..........................................................................................
Epidemiologists.........................................................................................
Medical scientists, except epidemiologists................................................
All other life scientists....................................................................................
Physical scientists.............................................................................................
Astronomers and physicists ..........................................................................
Astronomers..............................................................................................
Physicists ..................................................................................................
Atmospheric and space scientists.................................................................
Chemists and materials scientists.................................................................
Chemists ...................................................................................................
Materials scientists....................................................................................
Environmental scientists and geoscientists...................................................
Environmental scientists and specialists, including health.........................
Geoscientists, except hydrologists and geographers.................................
Hydrologists ..............................................................................................
All other physical scientists ...........................................................................
Social scientists and related occupations.........................................................
Economists...................................................................................................
Market and survey researchers.....................................................................
Market research analysts..........................................................................
Survey researchers...................................................................................
Psychologists4 ..............................................................................................
Clinical, counseling, and school psychologists .........................................
Industrial-organizational psychologists .....................................................
Sociologists...................................................................................................
Urban and regional planners.........................................................................
Miscellaneous social scientists and related workers3....................................
Anthropologists and archeologists............................................................
Geographers .............................................................................................
Historians ..................................................................................................
Political scientists......................................................................................
All other social scientists and related workers5.............................................
Life, physical, and social science technicians...................................................
Agricultural and food science technicians.....................................................
Biological technicians....................................................................................
Chemical technicians....................................................................................

1,237
214
18
75
17
16
15
27
33
19
14
62
4
58
26
251
14
1
13
8
91
84
7
101
65
28
8
37
426
16
155
134
20
139
137
2
3
32
14
5
1
2
6
68
346
20
48
69

1,450
253
20
90
21
20
16
33
34
20
14
79
5
73
31
287
15
1
14
9
103
95
8
121
80
31
10
39
512
18
193
166
27
173
171
2
3
36
15
5
1
2
6
74
397
22
57
72

.9
.1
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.2
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.1
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.3
.0
.1
.1
.0
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.2
.0
.0
.0

.9
.2
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.2
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.1
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.3
.0
.1
.1
.0
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.2
.0
.0
.0

212
39
2
14
4
3
1
6
1
1
1
17
1
16
5
36
1
0
1
1
11
11
1
20
15
3
2
2
86
2
38
31
7
34
34
0
0
3
1
1
0
0
0
7
51
2
9
3

17.2
18.2
9.1
19.0
?2.9
20.0
7.7
22.3
4.4
4.1
4.7
27.3
32.5
26.9
18.3
14.4
6.8
4.9
6.9
16.2
12.4
12.7
8.5
20.1
23.7
11.5
21.0
6.5
20.1
13.4
24.7
23.4
33.6
24.3
24.4
16.0
13.4
10.7
9.2
12.8
19.5
6.6
5.9
9.7
14.8
9.3
19.4
4.7

511
91
5
38
9
8
6
15
11
6
5
28
2
26
9
100
6
0
5
4
41
38
3
38
27
8
3
11
190
7
78
66
12
64
63
1
1
14
4
2
0
1
2
21
130
6
17
20

84

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

Table 2.

Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Change

Employment
Percent
distribution

Number

Number Percent
2002

2012

2002

2012

1.3
1.5
22.8
36.8
18.9
4.0
17.5

Total job
openings
due to
growth
and net
replace­
ments,
2002-121

3
2
25
17
4
5
56

19-4041
19-4051
19-4090
19-4091
19-4092
19-4093
19-4098

Geological and petroleum technicians..........................................................
Nuclear technicians.......................................................................................
Other life, physical, and social science technicians3 ....................................
Environmental science and protection technicians, including health.........
Forensic science technicians....................................................................
Forest and conservation technicians.........................................................
All other life, physical, and social science technicians5.................................

11
6
55
28
8
19
137

11
6
67
38
10
20
161

0.0

0.0

.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1

.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1

0
0
12
10
2
1
24

21-0000
21-1000

2,190

2,764

1.5

1.7

574

26.2

992

21-1010
21-1011
21-1012
21-1013
21-1014
21-1015
21-1020
21-1021
21-1022
21-1023
21-1090
21-1091
21-1092
21-1093
21-2000
21-2011
21-2021
21-9099

Community and social services occupations ........................................................
Counselors, social workers, and other community and social service
specialists4
...............................................................................................
Counselors4 ..................................................................................................
Substance abuse and behavioral disorder counselors ..............................
Educational, vocational, and school counselors ........................................
Marriage and family therapists..................................................................
Mental health counselors ..........................................................................
Rehabilitation counselors..........................................................................
Social workers4.............................................................................................
Child, family, and school social workers ...................................................
Medical and public health social workers..................................................
Mental health and substance abuse social workers................................
Miscellaneous community and social service specialists4.............................
Health educators.......................................................................................
Probation officers and correctional treatment specialists...........................
Social and human service assistants........................................................
Religious workers4............................................................................................
Clergy............................................................................................................
Directors, religious activities and education..................................................
All other counseTors, social, and religious workers2..........................................

1,436
526
67
228
23
85
122
477
274
107
95
434
45
84
305
506
400
105
248

1,853
645
83
262
29
107
164
604
338
138
128
605
54
97
454
593
463
131
318

1.0
.4
.0
.2
.0
.1
.1
.3
.2
.1
.1
.3
.0
.1
.2
.4
.3
.1
.2

1.1
.4
.1
.2
.0
.1
.1
.4
.2
.1
.1
.4
.0
.1
.3
.4
.3
.1
.2

417
119
16
34
5
23
41
127
64
31
33
171
10
12
149
87
62
25
70

29.0
22.6
23.3
15.0
22.4
26.7
33.8
26.7
23.2
28.6
34.5
39.4
21.9
14.7
48.7
17.3
15.5
24.1
28.3

695
239
31
86
11
42
69
209
111
49
49
247
18
27
202
181
144
37
116

23-0000
23-1000
23-1011
23-1020
23-1021
23-1022
23-1023
23-2000
23-2011
23-2090
23-2091
23-2092
23-2093
23-9099

Legal occupations.................................................................................................
Lawyers, judges, and related workers...............................................................
Lawyers.........................................................................................................
Judges, magistrates, and other judicial w orkers...........................................
Administrative law judges, adjudicators, and hearing officers....................
Arbitrators, mediators, and conciliators.....................................................
Judges, magistrate judges, and magistrates.............................................
Legal support workers.......................................................................................
Paralegals and legal assistants.....................................................................
Miscellaneous legal support workers4 ..........................................................
Court reporters..........................................................................................
Law clerks .................................................................................................
Title examiners, abstractors, and searchers.............................................
All other legal and related workers2..................................................................

1,168
747
695
51
19
6
27
320
200
121
18
48
55
101

1,357
869
813
56
20
7
29
380
257
123
20
50
53
109

.8
.5
.5
.0
.0
.0
.0
.2
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
.1

.8
.5
.5
.0
.0
.0
.0
.2
.2
.1
.0
.0
.0
.1

190
122
118
4
1
1
2
60
57
3
2
2
-1
8

16.2
16.4
17.0
8.3
5.8
13.7
8.7
18.7
28.7
2.1
12.7
3.7
-2.7
7.6

327
218
207
11
3
2
6
91
73
17
4
7
6
19

25-0000
25-1000
25-2000
25-2010
25-2011
25-2012
25-2020
25-2021
25-2022
25-2023
25-2030
25-2031
25-2032
25-2040
25-3000
25-3011
25-3021
25-3999
25-4000
25-4010

Education, training, and library occupations .........................................................
Postsecondary teachers....................................................................................
Primary, secondary, and special education teachers.........................................
Preschool and kindergarten teachers ...........................................................
Preschool teachers, except special education..........................................
Kindergarten teachers, except special education ......................................
Elementary and middle school teachers.......................................................
Elementary school teachers, except special education .............................
Middle school teachers, except special and vocational education.............
Vocational education teachers, middle school..........................................
Secondary school teachers..........................................................................
Secondary school teachers, except special and vocational education.....
Vocational education teachers, secondary school....................................

25-4031

Library technicians.......................................................................................

8,530
1,581
4,187
592
424
168
2,070
1,467
585
18
1,093
988
105
433
960
80
200
679
309
22
167
119

10,639
2,184
4,983
791
577
214
2,347
1,690
637
19
1,282
1,167
115
563
1,285
96
281
908
349
26
184
139

5.9
1.1
2.9
.4
.3
.1
1.4
1.0
.4
.0
.8
.7
.1
.3
.7
.1
.1
.5
.2
.0
.1
.1

6.4
1.3
3.0
.5
.3
.1
1.4
1.0
.4
.0
.8
.7
.1
.3
.8
.1
.2
.5
.2
.0
.1
.1

2,109
603
795
199
153
46
277
223
52
2
189
180
10
130
325
16
80
229
41
4
17
20

24.7
38.1
19.0
33.6
36.2
27.2
13.4
15.2
9.0
9.0
17.3
18.2
9.0
30.0
33.9
20.4
40.1
33.7
13.2
17.0
10.1
16.8

3,890
960
1,733
270
204
66
734
547
182
5
497
458
39
233
444
26
105
312
129
9
57
64

Other teachers and instructors...................................................................... .
Adult literacy, remedial education, and GED teachers and instructors.........
Self-enrichment education teachers.............................................................
All other teachers, primary, secondary, and adult2......................................
Librarians, curators, and archivists ..................................................................
Archivists, curators, and museum technicians.............................................


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

85

Occupational Employment

I Table 2.

Continued-Employment by occupation, 2002 ar id projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Employment
Number
2000 standard occupation classification code and title

|

Change

Percent
distribution
Number Percent

2002

2012

2002

2012

Total job
openings
due to
growth
and net
replace­
ments,
2002-121

25-9000
25-9011
25-9021
25-9031
25-9041
25-9199

Other education, training, and library occupations...................................
Audio-visual collections specialists......................................
Farm and home management advisors ..............................................
Instructional coordinators............................................................
Teacher assistants...........................................................
All other library, museum, training, and other education workers2 ................

1,493
10
16
98
1,277
93

1,838
11
17
123
1,571
116

1.0
.0
.0
.1
.9
.1

1.1
.0
.0
.1
1.0
.1

345
2
1
25
294
23

23.1
16.3
6.9
25.4
23.0
24.6

624
3
3
40
541
37

27-0000
27-1000
27-1010
27-1011
27-1013
27-1014
27-1020
27-1021
27-1022
27-1023
27-1024
27-1025
27-1026
27-1027
27-1099
27-2000
27-2010
27-2011
27-2012
27-2020
27-2021
27-2022
27-2023
27-2030
27-2031
27-2032
27-2040
27-2041
27-2042
27-2099
27-3000
27-3010
27-3020
27-3031
27-3040
27-3041
27-3042
27-3043
27-3090
27-3091
27-3099
27-4000
27-4010
27-4011
27-4012
27-4013
27-4014
27-4021
27-4030
27-4031
27-4032
27-4099

Arts, design, entertainment, sports, and media occupations .................................
Art and design occupations..............................................................
Artists and related workers......................................................
Art directors...................................................................
Fine artists, including painters, sculptors, and illustrators..........................
Multi-media artists and animators ..........................................................
Designers..............................................................
Commercial and industrial designers........................................................
Fashion designers....................................................................
Floral designers..............................................................
Graphic designers...............................................................
Interior designers ..................................................................
Merchandise displayers and window trimmers .........................................
Set and exhibit designers.......................................................
All other art and design workers5................................................................
Entertainers and performers, sports and related occupations ...........................
Actors, producers, and directors...........................................................
Actors...........................................................................
Producers and directors............................................................
Athletes, coaches, umpires, and related workers .........................................
Athletes and sports competitors..............................................................
Coaches and scouts...........................................................................
Umpires, referees, and other sports officials.............................................
Dancers and choreographers.........................................................
Dancers........................................................................
Choreographers ...............................................................
Musicians, singers, and related workers.............................................
Music directors and composers ..............................................................
Musicians and singers.......................................................
All other entertainers and performers, sports and related workers................
Media and communication occupations........................................
Announcers.......................................................................
News analysts, reporters and correspondents...........................................
Public relations specialists................................................................
Writers and editors.........................................................................
Editors............................................................................
Technical w riters.........................................................................
Writers and authors.......................................................................
Miscellaneous media and communications workers......................................
Interpreters and translators...................................................................
All other media and communication workers ............................................
Media and communication equipment occupations.......................................
Broadcast and sound engineering technicians and radio operators..............
Audio and video equipment technicians....................................................
Broadcast technicians.......................................................................
Radio operators......................................................................
Sound engineering technicians.................................................................
Photographers............................................................................
Television, video, and motion picture camera operators and editors.............
Camera operators, television, video, and motion picture...........................
Film and video editors..................................................................
All other media and communication equipment workers................................

2,377
775
149
51
23
75
532
52
15
104
212
60
77
12
95
606
139
63
76
158
15
130
14
37
20
17
215
54
161
56
700
76
66
158
319
130
50
139
82
24
58
295
93
42
35
3
13
130
48
28
19
24

2,769
900
170
56
27
87
625
59
16
117
258
73
86
15
106
709
164
74
90
187
18
153
16
42
22
20
250
62
189
65
815
68
70
210
370
145
63
161
97
29
68
345
111
53
39
3
16
148
56
32
25
29

1.7
.5
.1
.0
.0
.1
.4
.0
.0
.1
.1
.0
.1
.0
.1
.4
.1
.0
.1
.1
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.0
.1
.0
.5
.1
.0
.1
.2
.1
.0
.1
.1
.0
.0
.2
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0

1.7
.5
.1
.0
.0
.1
.4
.0
.0
.1
.2
.0
.1
.0
.1
.4
.1
.0
.1
.1
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.2
.0
.1
.0
.5
.0
.0
.1
.2
.1
.0
.1
.1
.0
.0
.2
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0

393
125
21
6
4
12
93
8
2
13
46
13
9
3
11
103
25
11
14
29
3
24
2
5
2
3
35
7
27
9
115
-8
4
52
51
15
13
22
15
5
10
50
18
11
4
0
3
18
9
4
5
5

16.5
16.1
14.4
11.4
16.5
15.8
17.4
14.7
10.6
12.4
21.9
21.7
11.3
20.9
11.5
17.0
18.0
17.7
18.3
18.3
19.2
18.3
16.9
13.3
11.1
15.8
16.2
13.5
17.1
16.4
16.4
-10.1
6.2
32.9
16.0
11.8
27.1
16.1
18.6
22.1
17.2
16.9
19.6
26.7
11.3
-6.2
25.5
13.6
18.7
13.4
26.4
20.1

847
245
54
17
9
28
164
15
4
27
75
21
19
4
28
228
44
19
25
59
6
49
5
28
15
13
80
19
61
16
260
19
20
75
121
47
28
46
25
8
17
115
41
21
13
1
6
44
19
10
9
10

29-0000
29-1000
29-1011
29-1020
29-1031
29-1041
29-1051

Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations..............................................
Health diagnosing and treating practitioners.....................................................
Chiropractors...........................................................................................
Dentists.........................................................................................
Dietitians and nutritionists............................................................................
Optometrists..................................................................................................
Pharmacists ..................................................................................................

6,580
4,071
49
153
49
32
230

8,288
5,125
60
159
58
38
299

4.6
2.8
.0
.1
.0
.0
.2

5.0
3.1
.0
.1
.0
.0
.2

1,708
1,054
11
6
9
5
69

26.0
25.9
23.3
4.1
17.8
17.1
30.1

2,959
1,849
21
32
21
14
114

86

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

Table 2. I Continued—Employment and occupation, 2002 a nd projected 2012
[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Employment
Number
2000 standard occupation classification code and title

Change

Percent
distribution
Number Percent

2002

2012

2002

2012

Total job
openings
due to
growth
and net
replace­
ments,
2002-121

29-1060
29-1071
29-1081
29-1111
29-1120
29-1121
29-1122
29-1123
29-1124
29-1125
29-1126
29-1127
29-1131
29-1198
29-2000
29-2010
29-2011
29-2012
29-2021
29-2030
29-2031
29-2032
29-2033
29-2034
29-2041
29-2050
29-2051
29-2052
29-2053
29-2054
29-2055
29-2056
29-2061
29-2071
29-2081
29-2090
29-2091
29-9000
29-9010
29-9090
29-9091
29-9199

Physicians and surgeons..............................................................................
Physician assistants......................................................................................
Podiatrists ....................................................................................................
Registered nurses........................................................................................
Therapists4...................................................................................................
Audiologists..............................................................................................
Occupational therapists.............................................................................
Physical therapists....................................................................................
Radiation therapists ..................................................................................
Recreational therapists .............................................................................
Respiratory therapists...............................................................................
Speech-language pathologists..................................................................
Veterinarians.................................................................................................
All other health diagnosing and treating practitioners5 .................................
Health technologists and technicians-*..............................................................
Clinical laboratory technologists and technicians..........................................
Medical and clinical laboratory technologists............................................
Medical and clinical laboratory technicians...............................................
Dental hygienists...........................................................................................
Diagnostic related technologists and technicians .........................................
Cardiovascular technologists and technicians..........................................
Diagnostic medical sonographers.............................................................
Nuclear medicine technologists ................................................................
Radiologic technologists and technicians .................................................
Emergency medical technicians and paramedics.........................................
Health diagnosing and treating practitioner support technicians....................
Dietetic technicians...................................................................................
Pharmacy technicians...............................................................................
Psychiatric technicians..............................................................................
Respiratory therapy technicians................................................................
Surgical technologists...............................................................................
Veterinary technologists and technicians..................................................
Licensed practical and licensed vocational nurses.......................................
Medical records and health information technicians.....................................
Opticians, dispensing....................................................................................
Miscelaneous health technologists and technicians4....................................
Orthotists and prosthetists ........................................................................
Other healthcare practitioners and technical occupations4...............................
Occupational health and safety specialists and technicians..........................
Miscelaneous health practitioners and technical workers4 ............................
Athletic trainers .........................................................................................
All other health practitioners and technical workers5........................................

583
63
13
2,284
450
11
82
137
14
27
86
94
58
107
2,263
297
150
147
148
271
43
37
17
174
179
451
29
211
60
26
72
53
702
147
63
5
5
56
41
14
14
190

697
94
15
2,908
592
14
110
185
18
29
116
120
72
134
2,857
355
179
176
212
338
58
45
21
214
238
574
35
271
63
35
92
76
844
216
75
6
6
65
47
19
19
241

0.4
.0
.0
1.6
.3
.0
.1
.1
.0
.0
.1
.1
.0
.1
1.6
.2
.1
.1
.1
.2
.0
.0
.0
.1
.1
.3
.0
.1
.0
.0
.1
.0
.5
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1

0.4
.1
.0
1.8
.4
.0
.1
.1
.0
.0
.1
.1
.0
.1
1.7
.2
.1
.1
.1
.2
.0
.0
.0
.1
.1
.3
.0
.2
.0
.0
.1
.0
.5
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1

114
31
2
623
142
3
29
48
4
2
30
26
14
26
593
58
29
29
64
67
15
9
4
40
59
123
6
61
4
9
20
23
142
69
11
1
1
10
5
4
4
52

19.5
48.9
15.0
27.3
31.7
29.0
35.2
35.3
31.6
9.1
34.8
27.2
25.1
24.5
26.2
19.4
19.3
19.4
43.1
24.8
33.5
24.0
23.6
22.9
33.1
27.2
20.2
28.8
5.9
34.2
27.9
44.1
20.2
46.8
18.2
18.9
18.9
17.4
13.2
29.9
29.9
27.2

191
40
5
1,101
231
6
40
62
7
9
58
49
28
50
1,002
138
69
68
76
118
23
16
7
72
80
181
10
88
11
12
30
30
295
90
23
2
2
22
14
7
7
86

31-3900

Service occupations..................................................................................................

26,569

31,905

18.4

19.3

5,336

20.1

12,962

31-0000
31-1000
31-1011
31-1012
31-1013
31-2000
31-2010
31-2011
31-2012
31-2020
31-2021
31-2022
31-9000
31-9011
31-9090
31-9091
31-9092
31-9093
31-9094
31-9095
31-9096
31-9099

Healthcare support occupations............................................................................
Nursing, psychiatric, and home health aides ....................................................
Home health aide s........................................................................................
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants.......................................................
Psychiatric aid e s...........................................................................................
Occupational and physical therapist assistants and aides................................
Occupational therapist assistants and aides.................................................
Occupational therapist assistants.............................................................
Occupational therapist aides.....................................................................
Physical therapist assistants and aides ........................................................
Physical therapist assistants.....................................................................
Physical therapist aides ............................................................................
Other healthcare support occupations..............................................................
Massage therapists.......................................................................................
Miscellaneous healthcare support occupations ............................................
Dental assistants.......................................................................................
Medical assistants.....................................................................................
Medical equipment preparers....................................................................
Medical transcriptionists............................................................................
Pharmacy aides ........................................................................................
Veterinary assistants and laboratory animal caretakers ............................
All other healthcare support workers.........................................................

3,310
2,014
580
1,375
59
114
27
18
8
87
50
37
1,182
92
1,090
266
365
36
101
60
63
198

4,452
2,645
859
1,718
68
164
38
26
12
127
73
54
1,644
117
1,527
379
579
43
124
71
79
251

2.3
1.4
.4
1.0
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.1
.0
.0
.8
.1
.8
.2
.3
.0
.1
.0
.0
.1

2.7
1.6
.5
1.0
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.1
.0
.0
1.0
.1
.9
.2
.4
.0
.1
.0
.0
.2

1,143
630
279
343
9
50
11
7
4
40
22
17
462
25
437
113
215
7
23
11
16
53

34.5
31.3
48.1
24.9
14.5
44.2
40.2
39.2
42.6
45.4
44.6
46.4
39.1
27.1
40.1
42.5
58.9
18.1
22.6
17.6
26.2
26.6

1,669
894
355
523
16
68
14
10
5
54
31
23
706
43
664
187
282
13
41
22
28
89


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

87

Occupational Employment

Table 2.

Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Employment
Number
2000 standard occupation classification code and title

Change

Percent
distribution
Number Percent

2002

2012

2002

2012

Total job
openings
due to
growth
and net
replace­
ments,
2002-121

33-0000
33-1000
33-1010
33-1011
33-1012
33-1021
33-1099
33-2000
33-2011
33-2020
33-3000
33-3010
33-3011
33-3012
33-3021
33-3031
33-3041
33-3050
33-3051
33-3052
33-9000
33-9011
33-9021
33-9030
33-9031
33-9032
33-9091
33-9095

Protective service occupations....................................
First-line supervisors/managers, protective service workers .........................
First-line supervisors/managers, law enforcement workers...........................
First-line supervisors/managers of correctional officers.............................
First-line supervisors/managers of police and detectives .....................
First-line supervisors/managers of fire fighting and prevention workers........
All other first-line supervisors/managers, protective service workers ............
Fire fighting and prevention workers.......................................
Firefighters ......................................................
Fire inspectors........................................................
Law enforcement workers..................................................
Bailiffs, correctional officers, and jailers........................
Bailiffs..................................................
Correctional officers and jailers........................................
Detectives and criminal investigators.........................................
Fish and game wardens...............................................
Parking enforcement workers .......................................
Police officers....................................................
Police and sheriff’s patrol officers ..............................................
Transit and railroad police..............................................
Other protective service workers...................................
Animal control workers........................................................
Private detectives and investigators.................................................
Security guards and gaming surveillance officers...................................
Gaming surveillance officers and gaming investigators.............................
Security guards ...........................................................
Crossing guards..................................................................
All other protective service workers5...................................................

3,116
266
147
33
114
63
56
296
282
14
1,179
442
15
427
94
8
11
625
619
6
1,374
11
48
1,004
9
995
74
237

3,885
315
171
40
131
74
70
356
340
16
1,460
547
16
531
115
8
12
779
772
7
1,753
12
60
1,324
11
1,313
86
271

2.2
.2
.1
.0
.1
.0
.0
.2
.2
.0
.8
.3
.0
.3
.1
.0
.0
.4
.4
.0
1.0
.0
.0
.7
.0
.7
.1
.2

2.4
.2
.1
.0
.1
.0
.0
.2
.2
.0
.9
.3
.0
.3
.1
.0
.0
.5
.5
.0
1.1
.0
.0
.8
.0
.8
.1
.2

769
49
24
6
17
12
13
60
58
2
281
105
1
103
21
1
1
154
153
1
379
1
12
319
2
317
12
34

24.7
18.3
16.1
19.0
15.3
18.7
23.9
20.3
20.7
11.6
23.9
23.7
9.5
24.2
22.4
7.1
11.5
24.6
24.7
15.9
27.6
12.6
25.3
31.8
24.6
31.9
16.5
14.3

1,649
136
71
16
55
37
28
146
140
6
563
197
5
192
46
2
3
315
313
2
804
9
22
538
4
534
36
199

35-0000
35-1000
35-1011
35-1012
35-2000
35-2010
35-2011
35-2012
35-2013
35-2014
35-2015
35-2021
35-3000
35-3011
35-3020
35-3021
35-3022
35-3031
35-3041
35-9000
35-9011
35-9021
35-9031
35-9098

Food preparation and serving related occupations.......................
Supervisors, food preparation and serving workers.....................................
Chefs and head cooks ................................................
First-line supervisors/managers of food preparation and serving workers.....
Cooks and food preparation workers^ ..........................................
Cooks4 ......................................................
Cooks, fast food ..............................................................
Cooks, institution and cafeteria..........................................
Cooks, private household......................................................
Cooks, restaurant..........................................................
Cooks, short order.................................................
Food preparation workers..........................................................
Food and beverage serving workers............................................
Bartenders......................................................
Fast food and counter workers.............................................
Combined food preparation and serving workers, including fast food .......
Counter attendants, cafeteria, food concession, and coffee shop .........
Waiters and waitresses............................................
Food servers, nonrestaurant........................................
Other food preparation and serving related workers4...................
Dining room and cafeteria attendants and bartender helpers........................
Dishwashers............................................................
Hosts and hostesses, restaurant, lounge, and coffee shop ...........................
All other food preparation and serving related workers5.........................

10,200
824
132
692
2,836
1,986
588
436
8
727
227
850
5,211
463
2,457
1,990
467
2,097
195
1,328
409
505
298
117

11,807
952
153
800
3,182
2,160
617
445
8
843
247
1,022
6,171
503
2,989
2,444
545
2,464
215
1,502
470
551
347
134

7.1
.6
.1
.5
2.0
1.4
.4
.3
.0
.5
.2
.6
3.6
.3
1.7
1.4
.3
1.5
.1
.9
.3
.4
.2
.1

7.1
.6
.1
.5
1.9
1.3
.4
.3
.0
.5
.1
.6
3.7
.3
1.8
1.5
.3
1.5
.1
.9
.3
.3
.2
.1

1,607
128
21
107
346
174
29
9
0
116
20
172
960
40
532
454
78
367
20
173
61
46
49
18

15.8
15.6
15.8
15.5
12.2
8.8
4.9
2.1
-5.4
15.9
9.0
20.2
18.4
8.6
21.7
22.8
16.7
17.5
10.4
13.0
14.9
9.0
16.4
15.2

5,659
332
60
272
1,262
789
211
144
3
341
91
473
3,454
223
1,699
1,317
383
1,446
85
611
198
216
143
54

37-0000
37-1000
37-1011
37-1012

Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations..............................
Supervisors, building and grounds cleaning and maintenance workers............
First-line supervisors/managers of housekeeping and janitorial workers.......
First-line supervisors/managers of landscaping, lawn service, and
groundskeeping workers ..............................................
Building cleaning and pest control workers.......................................................
Building cleaning workers4..............................................
Janitors and cleaners, except maids and housekeeping cleaners.............
Maids and housekeeping cleaners..........................................................
Pest control workers............................................................
Grounds maintenance workers .......................................................
Grounds maintenance workers4 ..................................................

5,485
380
230

6,386
449
267

3.8
.3
.2

3.9
.3
.2

901
70
37

16.4
18.4
16.2

2,000
138
92

150
3,820
3,759
2,267
1,492
62
1,285
1,160

182
4,381
4,309
2,681
1,629
72
1,555
1,410

.1
2.7
2.6
1.6
1.0
.0
.9
.8

.1
2.7
2.6
1.6
1.0
.0
.9
.9

32
561
550
414
137
10
270
250

21.6
14.7
14.6
18.3
9.2
17.0
21.0
21.5

46
1,314
1,294
844
450
20
548
503

37-2000
37-2010
37-2011
37-2012
37-2021
37-3000
37-3010

88

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

Table 2.

Continued— Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Change

Employment
Percent
distribution

Number
2000 standard occupation classification code and title

Number Percent
2002

2012

2002

2012

Total job
openings
due to
growth
and net
replace­
ments,
2002-121

37-3011
37-3012
37-3013
37-9099

Landscaping and groundskeeping workers...............................................
Pesticide handlers, sprayers, and applicators, vegetation.........................
Tree trimmers and pruners........................................................................
All other building and grounds cleaning and maintenance workers5 .............

1,074
27
59
125

1,311
30
69
145

0.7
.0
.0
.1

0.8
.0
.0
.1

237
3
11
20

22.0
9.7
18.6
16.1

470
9
24
46

39-0000
39-1000
39-1010
39-1011
39-1012
39-1021
39-2000
39-2011
39-2021
39-3000
39-3010
39-3011
39-3012
39-3021
39-3031
39-3090
39-3091
39-3092
39-3093
39-3199
39-4000
39-4011
39-4021
39-5000
39-5010
39-5011
39-5012
39-5090
39-5091
39-5092
39-5093
39-5094
39-6000
39-6010
39-6011
39-6012
39-6020
39-6021
39-6022
39-6030
39-6031
39-6032
39-9000
39-9011
39-9021
39-9030
39-9031
39-9032
39-9041
39-9099

Personal care and service occupations ................................................................
Supervisors, personal care and service workers ..............................................
First-line supervisors/managers of gaming workers......................................
Gaming supervisors.................................................................................
Slot key persons.......................................................................................
First-line supervisors/managers of personal service workers........................
Animal care and service workers ......................................................................
Animal trainers .............................................................................................
Nonfarm animal caretakers...........................................................................
Entertainment attendants and related workers .................................................
Gaming services workers4............................................................................
Gaming dealers.........................................................................................
Gaming and sports book writers and runners...........................................
Motion picture projectionists..........................................................................
Ushers, lobby attendants, and ticket takers ..................................................
Miscellaneous entertainment attendants and related workers4.....................
Amusement and recreation attendants.....................................................
Costume attendants..................................................................................
Locker room, coatroom, and dressing room attendants............................
All other gaming service workers2 ................................................................
Funeral service workers....................................................................................
Embalmers...................................................................................................
Funeral attendants .......................................................................................
Personal appearance workers ..........................................................................
Barbers and cosmetologists..........................................................................
Barbers.....................................................................................................
Hairdressers, hairstylists, and cosmetologists..........................................
Miscellaneous personal appearance workers...............................................
Makeup artists, theatrical and performance..............................................
Manicurists and pedicurists.......................................................................
Shampooers.............................................................................................
Skin care specialists..................................................................................
Transportation, tourism, and lodging attendants...............................................
Baggage porters, bellhops, and concierges..................................................
Baggage porters and bellhops ..................................................................
Concierges...............................................................................................
Tour and travel guides .................................................................................
Tour guides and escorts............................................................................
Travel guides.............................................................................................
Transportation attendants.............................................................................
Flight attendants........................................................................................
Transportation attendants, except flight attendants and baggage porters ..
Other personal care and service workers .........................................................
Child care workers ........................................................................................
Personal and home care aides .....................................................................
Recreation and fitness workers.....................................................................
Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors ..................................................
Recreation workers...................................................................................
Residential advisors......................................................................................
Personal care and service workers, all oth e r................................................

4,458
276
60
39
21
216
151
26
125
507
92
78
14
9
105
261
234
4
23
40
33
7
26
754
651
66
585
103
2
51
25
25
248
75
58
17
43
36
6
130
104
26
2,490
1,211
608
485
183
302
53
134

5,375
305
69
45
24
236
183
30
153
626
115
97
18
9
121
333
299
5
29
49
38
7
31
865
741
70
671
124
2
63
29
30
284
86
67
20
47
40
6
152
121
31
3,073
1,353
854
628
264
364
71
168

3.1
.2
.0
.0
.0
.1
.1
.0
.1
.4
.1
.1
.0
.0
.1
.2
.2
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.5
.5
.0
.4
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.2
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.1
.0
1.7
.8
.4
.3
.1
.2
.0
.1

3.3
.2
.0
.0
.0
.1
.1
.0
.1
.4
.1
.1
.0
.0
.1
.2
.2
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.5
.4
.0
.4
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.2
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.1
.0
1.9
.8
.5
.4
.2
.2
.0
.1

917
29
9
6
3
20
32
4
28
119
23
19
3
0
16
72
65
1
6
9
5
1
5
111
90
4
86
21
0
12
4
5
36
11
8
3
4
4
0
22
17
5
583
142
246
143
81
62
18
35

20.6
10.7
15.4
15.7
14.8
9.4
20.8
14.3
22.2
23.6
24.7
24.7
24.4
.4
15.5
27.6
27.8
25.1
26.5
21.3
16.7
8.3
18.9
14.7
13.8
6.5
14.7
20.3
18.2
22.7
16.6
19.4
14.7
14.6
14.4
15.3
9.3
11.0
-.3
16.5
15.9
18.9
23.4
11.7
40.5
29.5
44.5
20.5
33.6
25.9

1,985
96
22
14
8
74
68
9
59
300
52
44
8
5
76
147
132
2
13
21
12
2
10
262
221
23
199
41
1
21
9
10
84
31
24
7
15
14
2
38
30
8
1,161
471
343
254
123
131
29
63

41-0000

Sales and related occupations..................................................................................

15,260

17,231

10.6

10.4

1,971

12.9

6,904

Supervisors, sales w orkers...................................................................................
First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales workers ....................................
First-line supervisors/managers of non-retail sales workers.............................
Retail sales workers.............................................................................................
Cashiers...........................................................................................................
Cashiers, except gaming...............................................................................
Gaming change persons and booth cashiers................................................
Counter and rental clerks and parts salespersons............................................
Counter and rental clerks.............................................................................

2,395
1,798
597
8,224
3,465
3,432
33
683
436

2,599
1,962
637
9,392
3,927
3,886
41
793
550

1.7
1.2
.4
5.7
2.4
2.4
.0
.5
.3

1.6
1.2
.4
5.7
2.4
2.4
.0
.5
.3

204
163
41
1,167
462
454
8
109
114

8.5
9.1
6.8
14.2
13.3
13.2
24.1
16.0
26.3

640
486
153
4,578
2,148
2,124
24
352
281

41-1000
41-1011
41-1012
41-2000
41-2010
41-2011
41-2012
41-2020
41-2021


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

89

Occupational Employment

Table 2.

Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Employment

Change

Percent
distribution

Number
2000 standard occupation classification code and title

Number Percent
2002

41-2022
41-2031
41-3000
41-3011
41-3021
41-3031
41-3041
41-4000
41-4011
41-4012
41-9000
41-9010
41-9011
41-9012
41-9020
41-9021
41-9022
41-9031
41-9041
41-9091
41-9098
43-0000
43-1000
43-1011
43-2000
43-2011
43-2021
43-2099
43-3000
43-3011
43-3021
43-3031
43-3041
43-3051
43-3061
43-3071
43-4000
43-4011
43-4021
43-4031
43-4041
43-4051
43-4061
43-4071
43-4081
43-4111
43-4121
43-4131
43-4141
43-4151
43-4161
43-4171
43-4181
43-4999
43-5000
43-5011
43-5021
43-5030
43-5031
43-5032
43-5041
43-5050
43-5051

90

Parts salespersons.........................................
Retail salespersons..........................................
Sales representatives, services4...............................
Advertising sales agents ........................................
Insurance sales agents.......................................
Securities, commodities, and financial services sales agents............
Travel agents ......................................................
Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing.........................
Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, technical and scientific
products
..............................................
Sales representatives, wholesale and manufacturing, except technical and
scientific products
............................................
Other sales and related workers ......................................
Models, demonstrators, and product promoters ...............
Demonstrators and product promoters .......................................
Models................................................
Real estate brokers and sales agents..................................
Real estate brokers...................................................
Real estate sales agents........................................
Sales engineers ............................................................
Telemarketers ....................................................
Door-to-door sales workers, news and street vendors, and related workers.....
All other sales and related workers5 ..........................................
Office and administrative support occupations ........................
Supervisors, office and administrative support workers.........................
First-line supervisors/managers of office and administrative support workers ....
Communications equipment operators ..............................................
Switchboard operators, including answering service ..............................
Telephone operators....................................................
All other communications equipment operators........................
Financial clerks .......................................................
Bill and account collectors...................................................
Billing and posting clerks and machine operators.........................................
Bookkeeping, accounting, and auditing clerks........................................
Gaming cage workers ...................................................
Payroll and timekeeping clerks .........................................
Procurement clerks ...................................................
Tellers .............................................
Information and record clerks4...........................................
Brokerage clerks ...................................................
Correspondence clerks ..............................................
Court, municipal, and license clerks.....................................
Credit authorizers, checkers, and clerks......................................
Customer service representatives..................................
Eligibility interviewers, government programs......................................
File clerks.....................................................
Hotel, motel, and resort desk clerks.............................................
Interviewers, except eligibility and loan.............................................
Library assistants, clerical.........................................
Loan interviewers and clerks.................................
New accounts clerks ......................................................
Order clerks..........................................................
Human resources assistants, except payroll and timekeeping..........................
Receptionists and information clerks .............................................
Reservation and transportation ticket agents and travel clerks..........................
All other financial, information, and record clerks2.................................
Material recording, scheduling, dispatching, and distributing occupations ............
Cargo and freight agents...............................................
Couriers and Messengers..................................................
Dispatchers.......................................................................
Police, fire, and ambulance dispatchers ..............................................
Dispatchers, except police, fire, and ambulance...........................................
Meter readers, utilities.................................................................
Postal service workers .........................................................
Postal service clerks ..........................................................

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

2012

2002

2012

Total job
openings
due to
growth
and net
replace­
ments,
2002-121

248
4,076
957
157
381
300
118
1,857

243
4,672
1,033
178
413
339
102
2,213

0.2
2.8
.7
.1
.3
.2
.1
1.3

0.1
2.8
.6
.1
.3
.2
.1
1.3

-5
596
76
21
32
39
-16
356

-2.0
14.6
7.9
13.4
8.4
13.0
-13.8
19.2

71
2,077
274
52
123
73
27
844

398

475

.3

.3

77

19.3

182

1,459
1,827
179
175
5
407
99
308
82
428
155
577

1,738
1,994
210
204
5
427
101
325
98
406
137
717

1.0
1.3
.1
.1
.0
.3
.1
.2
.1
.3
.1
.4

1.1
1.2
.1
.1
.0
.3
.1
.2
.1
.2
.1
.4

279
167
30
30
1
20
2
18
16
-21
-18
140

19.1
9.2
16.9
17.0
14.5
4.9
2.4
5.7
19.9
-4.9
-11.8
24.3

662
568
70
68
2
101
22
79
41
70
37
250

23,851

25,464

16.6

15.4

1,613

6.8

7,499

1,459
1,459
304
236
50
19
3,726
413
507
1,983
18
198
77
530
5,394
78
33
106
80
1,894
94
265
178
193
120
170
99
330
174
1,100
177
304
4,005
59
132
262
92
170
54
664
77

1,555
1,555
272
236
22
14
3,987
514
547
2,042
21
211
72
580
6,310
67
33
119
74
2,354
83
264
220
247
146
146
110
311
207
1,425
199
306
4,025
68
138
298
104
194
46
636
77

1.0
1.0
.2
.2
.0
.0
2.6
.3
.4
1.4
.0
.1
.1
.4
3.7
.1
.0
.1
.1
1.3
.1
.2
.1
.1
.1
.1
.1
.2
.1
.8
.1
.2
2.8
.0
.1
.2
.1
.1
.0
.5
.1

.9
.9
.2
.1
.0
.0
2.4
.3
.3
1.2
.0
.1
.0
.4
3.8
.0
.0
.1
.0
1.4
.1
.2
.1
.1
.1
.1
.1
.2
.1
.9
.1
.2
2.4
.0
.1
.2
.1
.1
.0
.4
.0

96
96
-32
1
-28
-5
261
101
40
59
3
13
-5
50
916
-11
0
13
-5
460
-11
-1
42
54
26
-24
11
-19
33
325
22
2
20
9
5
36
12
24
-8
-28
0

6.6
6.6
-10.5
.3
-56.3
-24.6
7.0
24.5
7.9
3.0
14.5
6.5
-6.7
9.4
17.0
-14.7
-1.4
12.3
-6.7
24.3
-11.6
-.3
23.9
28.0
21.5
-14.3
11.2
-5.7
19.3
29.5
12.2
.5
.5
15.5
4.0
13.8
12.7
14.4
-14.1
-4.3
-.5

409
409
78
61
13
4
1,143
179
126
431
12
65
20
311
2,134
10
10
36
15
741
25
78
122
104
75
23
36
74
71
595
68
49
1,306
22
36
92
32
61
17
192
20

Table 2.

Continued— Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Employment

Change

Percent
distribution

Number
2000 standard occupation classification code and title

Number Percent
2002

43-5052
43-5053
43-5061
43-5071
43-5081
43-5111
43-5199
43-6000
43-6011
43-6012
43-6013
43-6014
43-9000
43-9011
43-9020
43-9021
43-9022
43-9031
43-9041
43-9051
43-9061
43-9071
43-9081
43-9111
43-9999

Postal service mail carriers...........................................................................
Postal service mail sorters, processors, and processing machine
operators ..................................................................................................
Production, planning, and expediting clerks......................................................
Shipping, receiving, and traffic clerks................................................................
Stock clerks and order fillers.............................................................................
Weighers, measurers, checkers, and samplers, recordkeeping........................
All other material recording, scheduling, dispatching, and distributing
workers2
...................................................................................................
Secretaries and administrative assistants.............................................................
Executive secretaries and administrative assistants.........................................
Legal secretaries...............................................................................................
Medical secretaries ...........................................................................................
Secretaries, except legal, medical, and executive............................................
Other office and administrative support workers...................................................
Computer operators ..........................................................................................
Data entry and information processing workers'*..............................................
Data entry keyers..........................................................................................
Word processors and typists.........................................................................
Desktop publishers............................................................................................
Insurance claims and policy processing clerks .................................................
Mail clerks and mail machine operators, except postal service ........................
Office clerks, general ........................................................................................
Office machine operators, except computer.....................................................
Proofreaders and copy markers........................................................................
Statistical assistants..........................................................................................
All other secretaries, administrative assistants, and other office support
workers2
...................................................................................................

2012

2002

2012

Total job
openings
due to
growth
and net
replace­
ments,
2002-121

334

333

0.2

0.2

-2

-0.5

105

253
288
803
1,628
81

226
328
827
1,560
93

.2
.2
.6
1.1
.1

.1
.2
.5
.9
.1

-26
40
24
-68
12

-10.5
14.1
3.0
-4.2
14.6

67
110
189
602
32

34
4,104
1,526
264
339
1,975
4,858
182
633
392
241
35
266
170
2,991
96
27
23

32
4,288
1,658
313
398
1,918
5,027
151
519
371
148
45
276
165
3,301
91
26
22

.0
2.8
1.1
.2
.2
1.4
3.4
.1
.4
.3
.2
.0
.2
.1
2.1
.1
.0
.0

.0
2.6
1.0
.2
.2
1.2
3.0
.1
.3
.2
.1
.0
.2
.1
2.0
.1
.0
.0

-2
184
132
50
58
-57
169
-30
-114
-21
-93
10
10
-5
310
-4
-1
-2

-6.9
4.5
8.7
18.8
17.2
-2.9
3.5
-16.7
-18.1
-5.4
-38.6
29.2
3.6
-2.9
10.4
-4.6
-4.8
-7.2

13
1,026
424
100
123
378
1,404
39
146
93
53
18
53
51
972
24
6
4

435

431

.3

.3

-4

-.9

92

45-0000

Farming, fishing, and forestry occupations ...............................................................

1,072

1,107

.7

.7

35

3.3

335

45-1000
45-2000
45-2011
45-2021
45-2041
45-2090
45-2091
45-2092
45-2093
45-3000
45-3011
45-3021
45-4000
45-4011
45-4020
45-4021
45-4022
45-4023
45-9099

Supervisors, farming, fishing, and forestry workers..............................................
Agricultural workers...............................................................................................
Agricultural inspectors.......................................................................................
Animal breeders................................................................................................
Graders and sorters, agricultural products........................................................
Miscellaneous agricultural w o rk e d .................................................................
Agricultural equipment operators ..................................................................
Farmworkers and laborers, crop, nursery, and greenhouse ..........................
Farmworkers, farm and ranch animals..........................................................
Fishing and hunting workers .................................................................................
Fishers and related fishing workers ..................................................................
Hunters and trappers ........................................................................................
Forest, conservation, and logging workers ...........................................................
Forest and conservation workers......................................................................
Logging workers'*..............................................................................................
Fallers ...........................................................................................................
Logging equipment operators .......................................................................
Log graders and scalers................................................................................
All other farming, fishing, and forestry workersS ...................................................

52
804
16
9
49
731
61
617
53
38
36
1
81
14
67
14
43
10
96

58
840
17
10
52
762
65
641
56
28
27
2
80
15
65
14
41
10
101

.0
.6
.0
.0
.0
.5
.0
.4
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1

.0
.5
.0
.0
.0
.5
.0
.4
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1

6
36
1
1
3
31
4
24
2
-10
-10
0
-2
1
-2
0
-2
0
4

11.4
4.5
6.7
6.1
6.7
4.3
7.3
4.0
4.4
-25.5
-26.8
6.5
-1.9
4.5
-3.2
-3.4
-3.7
-1.2
4.5

18
261
5
2
16
238
22
199
17
11
10
1
16
4
12
3
8
2
28

47-0000

Construction and extraction occupations ..................................................................

7,292

8,388

5.1

5.1

1,096

15.0

2,548

47-1000
47-1011

Supervisors, construction and extraction workers.................................................
First-line supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction
workers
.....................................................................................................
Construction trades and related workers ..............................................................
Boilermakers .....................................................................................................
Brickmasons, blockmasons, and stonemasons ................................................
Brickmasons and blockmasons.....................................................................
Stonemasons ................................................................................................
Carpenters ........................................................................................................
Carpet, floor, and tile installers and finishers....................................................
Carpet installers............................................................................................
Floor layers, except carpet, wood, and hard tiles..........................................
Floor sanders and finishers...........................................................................
Tile and marble setters..................................................................................

633

722

.4

.4

89

14.1

197

633
5,596
25
165
148
17
1,209
164
82
31
17
33

722
6,452
25
188
169
19
1,331
191
96
35
18
42

.4
3.9
.0
.1
.1
.0
.8
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0

.4
3.9
.0
.1
.1
.0
.8
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0

89
857
0
23
21
2
122
27
14
4
1
9

14.1
15.3
1.7
14.2
14.2
14.1
10.1
16.8
16.8
13.4
4.2
26.5

197
1,887
9
48
43
5
319
53
27
9
3
14

47-2000
47-2011
47-2020
47-2021
47-2022
47-2031
47-2040
47-2041
47-2042
47-2043
47-2044


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

91

Occupational Employment

Table 2.

Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Employment

Change

Percent
distribution

Number
2000 standard occupation classification code and title

Number Percent
2002

47-2050
47-2051
47-2053
47-2061
47-2070
47-2071
47-2072
47-2073
47-2080
47-2081
47-2082
47-2111
47-2121
47-2130
47-2140
47-2141
47-2142
47-2150
47-2151
47-2152
47-2161
47-2171
47-2181
47-2211
47-2221
47-3000
47-3010
47-3011
47-3012
47-3013
47-3014
47-3015
47-3016
47-3019
47-4000
47-4011
47-4021
47-4031
47-4041
47-4051
47-4061
47-4071
47-4090
47-4091
47-4999
47-5000
47-5010
47-5011
47-5012
47-5013
47-5021
47-5031
47-5040
47-5041
47-5042
47-5049
47-5051
47-5061
47-5071
47-5081
47-5099
49-0000
49-1000
49-1011

92

Cement masons, concrete finishers, and terrazzo workers ..................
Cement masons and concrete finishers.................................
Terrazzo workers and finishers......................................................
Construction laborers..................................................
Construction equipment operators.......................................
Paving, surfacing, and tamping equipment operators...................................
Pile-driver operators.................................................................
Operating engineers and other construction equipment operators................
Drywall installers, ceiling tile installers, and tapers ...................................
Drywall and ceiling tile installers .................................................
Tapers.........................................................................
Electricians.......................................................................
Glaziers.......................................................................
Insulation workers...................................................
Painters and paperhangers....................................................................
Painters, construction and maintenance..............................................
Paperhangers.............................................................
Pipelayers, plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters ...........................................
Pipelayers ....................................................................
Plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters......................................................
Plasterers and stucco masons................................................
Reinforcing iron and rebar workers..............................................
Roofers.......................................................................
Sheet metal workers .................................................................
Structural iron and steel workers.........................................................
Helpers, construction trades ..............................................................
Helpers, construction trades ..................................................................
Helpers—Brickmasons, blockmasons, stonemasons, and tile and marble
setters ......................................................................
Helpers—Carpenters ...........................................................................
Helpers—Electricians........................................................................
Helpers—Painters, paperhangers, plasterers, and stucco masons...............
Helpers—Pipelayers, plumbers, pipefitters, and steamfitters ........................
Helpers—Roofers..................................................................
All other helpers, construction trades................................................
Other construction and related workers4 .....................................
Construction and building inspectors ..................................................
Elevator installers and repairers............................................................
Fence erectors.......................................................................
Hazardous materials removal workers.....................................................
Highway maintenance workers ............................................
Rail-track laying and maintenance equipment operators..................................
Septic tank servicers and sewer pipe cleaners.............................................
Miscellaneous construction and related workers4.............................
Segmental pavers ....................................................................
All other construction trades and related workers2 .............................
Extraction workers...................................................
Derrick, rotary drill, and service unit operators, oil, gas, and mining.................
Derrick operators, oil and g a s ......................................................
Rotary drill operators, oil and gas ...............................................
Service unit operators, oil, gas, and mining ..................................................
Earth drillers, except oil and g a s ..............................................................
Explosives workers, ordnance handling experts, and blasters ..........................
Mining machine operators...............................................
Continuous mining machine operators................................
Mine cutting and channeling machine operators...................................
All other mining machine operators...................................
Rock splitters, quarry ............................................................
Roof bolters, m ining......................................................................
Roustabouts, oil and ga s........................................................
Helpers—Extraction workers................................................................
Extraction workers, all other.............................................................
Installation, maintenance, and repair occupations..........................................
Supervisors of installation, maintenance, and repair workers................................
First-line supervisors/managers of mechanics, installers, and repairers ...........

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

2012

2002

2012

Total job
openings
due to
growth
and net
replace­
ments,
2002-121

188
182
6
938
416
58
5
353
176
135
41
659
49
53
468
448
20
550
58
492
59
29
166
205
78
431
431

236
229
7
1,070
460
65
6
389
214
164
49
814
57
62
521
500
21
649
65
584
67
33
197
246
90
490
490

0.1
.1
.0
.7
.3
.0
.0
.2
.1
.1
.0
.5
.0
.0
.3
.3
.0
.4
.0
.3
.0
.0
.1
.1
.1
.3
.3

0.1
.1
.0
.6
.3
.0
.0
.2
.1
.1
.0
.5
.0
.0
.3
.3
.0
.4
.0
.4
.0
.0
.1
.1
.1
.3
.3

48
47
1
133
45
7
0
37
37
29
8
154
8
8
53
52
1
99
7
92
8
5
31
41
12
59
59

25.7
26.1
15.2
14.2
10.7
12.6
8.2
10.4
21.3
21.4
20.8
23.4
17.2
15.8
11.4
11.6
5.9
18.0
11.8
18.7
13.5
16.7
18.6
19.8
15.9
13.7
13.7

86
84
2
258
144
16
1
127
76
58
17
285
19
25
124
120
4
225
20
205
19
10
70
90
28
238
238

59
97
99
31
79
21
44
354
84
21
27
38
154
11
18
2
2
110
167
41
15
14
13
23
5
18
8
5
4
3
4
32
29
12

61
111
117
36
88
25
53
408
95
25
31
54
170
9
22
3
3
146
169
41
15
14
13
25
5
16
7
5
4
3
3
34
30
12

.0
.1
.1
.0
.1
.0
.0
.2
.1
.0
.0
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0

.0
.1
.1
.0
.1
.0
.0
.2
.1
.0
.0
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0

1
14
18
5
9
4
9
54
12
4
4
16
16
-1
4
0
0
35
2
0
0
0
0
2
0
-2
-2
0
0
0
-1
2
1
0

2.2
14.0
17.9
15.9
10.9
19.3
19.4
15.2
13.8
17.1
13.4
43.1
10.4
-11.5
21.2
16.5
16.5
32.0
1.2
.5
.8
1.5
-.8
7.7
2.0
-13.3
-18.5
-7.1
-10.8
14.3
-27.7
6.4
3.9
-.8

26
54
59
18
42
13
27
123
30
9
8
26
38
2
9
1
1
53
51
12
4
4
4
7
2
5
2
1
1
1
1
11
9
3

5,696

6,472

4.0

3.9

776

13.6

2,087

444
444

512
512

.3
.3

.3
.3

68
68

15.4
15.4

180
180

Table 2.

Continued— Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Employment

Change

Percent
distribution

Number
2000 standard occupation classification code and title

Number Percent
2002

49-2000
49-2011
49-2020
49-2021
49-2022
49-2090
49-2091
49-2092
49-2093
49-2094
49-2095
49-2096
49-2097
49-2098
49-2099
49-3000
49-3011
49-3020
49-3021
49-3022
49-3023
49-3031
49-3040
49-3041
49-3042
49-3043
49-3050
49-3051
49-3052
49-3053
49-3090
49-3091
49-3092
49-3093
49-3099
49-9000
49-9010
49-9011
49-9012
49-9021
49-9031
49-9040
49-9041
49-9042
49-9043
49-9044
49-9045
49-9050
49-9051
49-9052
49-9060
49-9061
49-9062
49-9063
49-9064
49-9069
49-9090
49-9091
49-9092
49-9093
49-9094
49-9095

Electrical and electronic equipment mechanics, installers, and repairers..............
Computer, automated teller, and office machine repairers...............................
Radio and telecommunications equipment installers and repairers...................
Radio mechanics..........................................................................................
Telecommunications equipment installers and repairers, except line
installers ..................................................................................................
Miscellaneous electrical and electronic equipment mechanics, installers, and
repairers
..................................................................................................
Avionics technicians.....................................................................................
Electric motor, power tool, and related repairers ..........................................
Electrical and electronics installers and repairers, transportation
equipment ................................................................................................
Electrical and electronics repairers, commercial and industrial equipment....
Electrical and electronics repairers, powerhouse, substation, and re la y .......
Electronic equipment installers and repairers, motor vehicles.......................
Electronic home entertainment equipment installers and repairers...............
Security and fire alarm systems installers.....................................................
All other electrical and electronic equipment mechanics, installers, and
repairers2
................................................................................................
Vehicle and mobile equipment mechanics, installers, and repairers .....................
Aircraft mechanics and service technicians......................................................
Automotive technicians and repairers...............................................................
Automotive body and related repairers.........................................................
Automotive glass installers and repairers.....................................................
Automotive service technicians and mechanics............................................
Bus and truck mechanics and diesel engine specialists...................................
Heavy vehicle and mobile equipment service technicians and mechanics........
Farm equipment mechanics.........................................................................
Mobile heavy equipment mechanics, except engines...................................
Rail car repairers..........................................................................................
Small engine mechanics ..................................................................................
Motorboat mechanics...................................................................................
Motorcycle mechanics..................................................................................
Outdoor power equipment and other small engine mechanics......................
Miscellaneous vehicle and mobile equipment mechanics, installers, and
repairers
..................................................................................................
Bicycle repairers...........................................................................................
Recreational vehicle service technicians ......................................................
Tire repairers and changers.........................................................................
All other vehicle and mobile equipment mechanics, installers, and repaired ...
Other installation, maintenance, and repair occupations......................................
Control and valve installers and repairers.........................................................
Mechanical door repairers............................................................................
Control and valve installers and repairers, except mechanical door..............
Heating, air conditioning, and refrigeration mechanics and installers................
Home appliance repairers................................................................................
Industrial machinery installation, repair, and maintenance workers...................
Industrial machinery mechanics....................................................................
Maintenance and repair workers, general.....................................................
Maintenance workers, machinery .................................................................
Millwrights ....................................................................................................
Refractory materials repairers, except brickmasons.....................................
Line installers and repairers.............................................................................
Electrical power-line installers and repairers.................................................
Telecommunications line installers and repairers.........................................
Precision instrument and equipment repairers..................................................
Camera and photographic equipment repairers............................................
Medical equipment repairers........................................................................
Musical instrument repairers and tuners.......................................................
Watch repairers............................................................................................
All other precision instrument and equipment repairers................................
Miscellaneous installation, maintenance, and repair workers...........................
Coin, vending, and amusement machine servicers and repairers.................
Commercial divers .......................................................................................
Fabric menders, except garment ..................................................................
Locksmiths and safe repairers.....................................................................
Manufactured building and mobile home installers.......................................


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

689
156
226
7

2012

746
180
222
5

2002

2012

0.5
.1
.2
.0

0.5
.1
.1
.0

57
24
-4
-2

Total job
openings
due to
growth
and net
replace­
ments,
2002-121

8.3
15.1
-1.6
-29.3

193
43
47
2

219

217

.2

.1

-1

-.6

45

284
23
31

317
24
33

.2
.0
.0

.2
.0
.0

33
1
2

11.5
3.4
5.3

95
6
9

18
85
21
18
43
46

19
94
21
21
46
60

.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0

.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0

1
9
0
3
4
14

7.1
10.3
-.6
14.8
8.6
30.2

6
27
5
7
12
23

22
1,817
131
1,038
198
22
818
267
176
35
126
15
67
22
15
30

26
2,043
145
1,168
225
24
919
305
191
38
138
15
79
26
18
36

.0
1.3
.1
.7
.1
.0
.6
.2
.1
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0

.0
1.2
.1
.7
.1
.0
.6
.2
.1
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0

4
226
14
130
26
2
101
38
15
3
12
1
12
4
3
6

19.6
12.4
11.0
12.5
13.2
10.7
12.4
14.2
8.8
7.7
9.6
4.5
18.7
18.3
18.7
18.9

9
695
45
392
67
6
319
107
54
10
39
4
29
9
7
13

102
7
13
83
36
2,746
49
11
38
249
42
1,628
197
1,266
92
69
4
268
101
167
64
7
29
6
5
17
447
43
4
2
23
18

113
8
15
89

.1
.0
.0
.1
.0
1.9
.0
.0
.0
.2
.0
1.1
.1
.9
.1
.0
.0
.2
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.3
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0

.1
.0
.0
.1
.0
1.9
.0
.0
.0
.2
.0
1.1
.1
.9
.1
.0
.0
.2
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.3
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0

11
1
3
7
6
424
7
2
5
79
2
227
11
207
5
4
0
33
2
31
6
0
4
0
0
1
71
6
0
0
5
4

10.4
18.8
21.8
8.0
15.4
15.5
14.1
21.8
12.0
31.8
5.5
13.9
5.5
16.3
5.9
5.3
5.6
12.3
1.6
18.8
8.6
-7.1
14.8
6.3
3.5
7.0
15.8
15.2
10.6
-2.2
21.0
23.3

54
4
8
42
15
1,019
19
5
14
112
12
548
51
450
26
21
1
111
34
77
24
2
12
2
2
6
193
17
1
1
12
9

41

3,171
55
13
42
328
44
1,855
208
1,472
97
73
4
301
103
199
69
6
33
7
5
18
518
49
5
2
28
22

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

93

Occupational Employment

| Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012
[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Employment

Change

Percent
distribution

Number
2000 standard occupation classification code and title

Number Percent
2002

2012

2002

2012

Total job
openings
due to
growth
and net
replace­
ments,
2002-121

49-9096
49-9097
49-9098
49-9099

Riggers..........................................................................................................
Signal and track switch repairers..................................................................
Helpers—Installation, maintenance, and repair workers...............................
Installation, maintenance, and repair workers, all other.................................

14
8
150
185

16
8
181
207

0.0
.0
.1
.1

0.0
.0
.1
.1

2
0
30
23

14.3
-3.1
20.3
12.2

5
3
81
65

51-0000

Production occupations.............................................................................................

11,258

11,612

7.8

7.0

354

3.1

3,361

51-1000
51-1011
51-2000
51-2011
51-2020
51-2021
51-2022
51-2023
51-2031
51-2041
51-2090
51-2091
51-2092
51-2093
51-2099
51-3000
51-3011
51-3020
51-3021
51-3022
51-3023
51-3090
51-3091

Supervisors, production workers...........................................................................
First-line supervlsors/managers of production and operating workers...............
Assemblers and fabricators...................................................................................
Aircraft structure, surfaces, rigging, and systems assemblers...........................
Electrical, electronics, and electromechanical assemblers................................
Coil winders, tapers, and finishers................................................................
Electrical and electronic equipment assemblers...........................................
Electromechanical equipment assemblers....................................................
Engine and other machine assemblers.............................................................
Structural metal fabricators and fitters ..............................................................
Miscellaneous assemblers and fabricators.......................................................
Fiberglass lamlnators and fabricators...........................................................
Team assemblers..........................................................................................
Timing device assemblers, adjusters, and calibrators ...................................
All other assemblers and fabricators.............................................................
Food processing occupations ...............................................................................
Bakers...............................................................................................................
Butchers and other meat, poultry, and fish processing workers ........................
Butchers and meat cutters ............................................................................
Meat, poultry, and fish cutters and trimmers.................................................
Slaughterers and meat packers....................................................................
Miscellaneous food processing workers ...........................................................
Food and tobacco roasting, baking, and drying machine operators and
tenders .....................................................................................................
Food batchmakers ........................................................................................
Food cooking machine operators and tenders..............................................
All other food processing workers2 ...................................................................
Metal workers and plastic workers4 ......................................................................
Computer control programmers and operators.................................................
Computer-controlled machine tool operators, metal and plastic....................
Numerical tool and process control programmers ........................................
Forming machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic ................
Extruding and drawing machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and
plastic .......................................................................................................
Forging machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic .............
Rolling machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic...............
Machine tool cutting setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic............
Cutting, punching, and press machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal
and plastic ................................................................................................
Drilling and boring machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and
plastic .......................................................................................................
Grinding, lapping, polishing, and buffing machine tool setters, operators, and
tenders, metal and plastic ........................................................................
Lathe and turning machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and
plastic .......................................................................................................
Milling and planing machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and
plastic .......................................................................................................
Machinists .........................................................................................................
Metal furnace and kiln operators and tenders...................................................
Metal-refining furnace operators and tenders................................................
Pourers and casters, metal ...........................................................................
Model makers and patternmakers, metal and plastic........................................
Model makers, metal and plastic...................................................................
Patternmakers, metal and plastic..................................................................
Molders and molding machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and
plastic
.......................................................................................................
Foundry mold and coremakers .....................................................................
Molding, coremaking, and casting machine setters, operators, and tenders,
metal and plastic ......................................................................................
Multiple machine tool setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic ..........

733
733
2,122
27
377
36
281
60
50
89
1,579
37
1,174
7
361
757
173
414
132
154
128
127

803
803
2,044
24
316
31
230
55
49
94
1,561
39
1,155
6
360
836
192
459
129
179
151
137

.5
.5
1.5
.0
.3
.0
.2
.0
.0
.1
1.1
.0
.8
.0
.3
.5
.1
.3
.1
.1
.1
.1

.5
.5
1.2
.0
.2
.0
.1
.0
.0
.1
.9
.0
.7
.0
.2
.5
.1
.3
.1
.1
.1
.1

70
70
-77
-2
-61
-5
-51
-5
-1
6
-18
2
-19
0
-1
79
19
45
-3
25
23
9

9.5
9.5
-3.6
-9.4
-16.3
-13.9
-18.3
-8.3
-1.9
6.2
-1.1
5.6
-1.6
-3.0
-.2
10.5
11.2
10.9
-2.5
16.4
18.1
7.2

224
224
547
7
89
9
66
14
14
26
410
12
304
2
93
254
59
139
29
59
51
41

19
74
34
42
2,367
151
132
19
188

20
79
37
48
2,544
166
144
22
198

.0
.1
.0
.0
1.6
.1
.1
.0
.1

.0
.0
.0
.0
1.5
.1
.1
.0
.1

1
5
3
6
177
15
12
3
11

4.2
7.2
8.8
13.4
7.5
9.8
9.3
13.0
5.6

6
23
11
15
754
40
34
6
60

98
45
44
546

105
48
45
569

.1
.0
.0
.4

.1
.0
.0
.3

7
3
1
24

7.1
5.9
2.0
4.3

40
9
11
144

283

302

.2

.2

19

6.8

85

51-3092
51-3093
51-3099
51-4000
51-4010
51-4011
51-4012
51-4020
51-4021
51-4022
51-4023
51-4030
51-4031
51-4032
51-4033
51-4034
51-4035
51-4041
51-4050
51-4051
51-4052
51-4060
51-4061
51-4062
51-4070
51-4071
51-4072
51-4081

94

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

53

54

.0

.0

1

2.1

17

104

106

.1

.1

3

2.4

22

75

75

.1

.0

1

.8

15

31
387
31
18
13
15
9
6

31
419
30
17
13
16
10
7

.0
.3
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0

.0
.3
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0

0
32
0
0
0
1
1
0

.8
8.2
-1.3
-.8
-2.0
9.8
14.6
3.6

6
122
7
4
3
6
4
2

174
23

189
24

.1
.0

.1
.0

14
1

8.2
3.6

58
7

151
99

165
107

.1
.1

.1
.1

14
8

8.9
8.3

51
35

Table 2.

Continued— Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Employment

Change

Percent
distribution

Number
2000 standard occupation classification code and title

Number Percent
2002

51-4111
51-4120
51-4121
51-4122
51-4190
51-4191
51-4192
51-4193
51-4194
51-4199
51-5000
51-5010
51-5011
51-5012
51-5020
51-5021
51-5022
51-5023
51-5099
51-6000
51-6011
51-6021
51-6031
51-6040
51-6041
51-6042
51-6050
51-6051
51-6052
51-6060
51-6061
51-6062
51-6063
51-6064
51-6090
51-6091
51-6092
51-6093
51-6099
51-7000
51-7011
51-7021
51-7030
51-7031
51-7032
51-7040
51-7041
51-7042
51-7099
51-8000
51-8010
51-8011
51-8012
51-8013
51-8021
51-8031
51-8090
51-8091
51-8092
51-8093
51-8099
51-9000
51-9010
51-9011

Tool and die makers.........................................................................................
Welding, soldering, and brazing workers..........................................................
Welders, cutters, solderers, and brazers ......................................................
Welding, soldering, and brazing machine setters, operators, and tenders....
Miscellaneous metalworkers and plastic workers.............................................
Heat treating equipment setters, operators, and tenders, metal and plastic ...
Lay-out workers, metal and plastic................................................................
Plating and coating machine setters, operators, and tenders, metal and
plastic ......................................................................................................
Tool grinders, filers, and sharpeners.............................................................
All other metal workers and piastic workers..................................................
Printing occupations.............................................................................................
Bookbinders and bindery workers.....................................................................
Bindery workers ...........................................................................................
Bookbinders .................................................................................................
Printers................................................................................................
Job printers ..................................................................................................
Prepress technicians and workers................................................................
Printing machine operators...........................................................................
All other printing workers2................................................................................
Textile, apparel, and furnishings occupations.......................................................
Laundry and dry-cleaning workers....................................................................
Pressers, textile, garment, and related materials..............................................
Sewing machine operators...............................................................................
Shoe and leather workers ................................................................................
Shoe and leather workers and repairers.......................................................
Shoe machine operators and tenders...........................................................
Tailors, dressmakers, and sewers ....................................................................
Sewers, h a n d ...............................................................................................
Tailors, dressmakers, and custom sewers....................................................
Textile machine setters, operators, and tenders...............................................
Textile bleaching and dyeing machine operators and tenders.......................
Textile cutting machine setters, operators, and tenders ...............................
Textile knitting and weaving machine setters, operators, and tenders ..........
Textile winding, twisting, and drawing out machine setters, operators, and
tenders ....................................................................................................
Miscellaneous textile, apparel, and furnishings workers...................................
Extruding and forming machine setters, operators, and tenders, synthetic
and glass fibers .......................................................................................
Fabric and apparel patternmakers................................................................
Upholsterers.................................................................................................
All other textile, apparel, and furnishings workers.........................................
Woodworkers .......................................................................................................
Cabinetmakers and bench carpenters..............................................................
Furniture finishers ............................................................................................
Model makers and patternmakers, w ood..........................................................
Model makers, w ood....................................................................................
Patternmakers, wood ...................................................................................
Woodworking machine setters, operators, and tenders....................................
Sawing machine setters, operators, and tenders, w ood...............................
Woodworking machine setters, operators, and tenders, except sawing........
All other woodworkers......................................................................................
Plant and system operators .................................................................................
Power plant operators, distributors, and dispatchers........................................
Nuclear power reactor operators...................................................................
Power distributors and dispatchers...............................................................
Power plant operators...................................................................................
Stationary engineers and boiler operators ........................................................
Water and liquid waste treatment plant and system operators..........................
Miscellaneous plant and system operators.......................................................
Chemical plant and system operators...........................................................
Gas plant operators......................................................................................
Petroleum pump system operators, refinery operators, and gaugers............
All other plant and system operators.............................................................
Other production occupations...............................................................................
Chemical processing machine setters, operators, and tenders........................
Chemical equipment operators and tenders.................................................


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2012

2002

2012

Total job
openings
due to
growth
and net
replace­
ments,
2002-121

109
452
391
61
215
29
13

110
518
457
62
221
29
15

0.1
.3
.3
.0
.1
.0
.0

0.1
.3
.3
.0
.1
.0
.0

0
67
66
1
6
0
2

0.4
14.8
17.0
.9
2.6
-.6
15.6

25
194
177
18
62
9
4

44
26
104
465
98
91
7
346
56
91
199
21
1,085
231
91
315
23
16
7
90
36
53
179
27
34
53

42
24
466
93
86
7
350
61
81
208
23
932
260
91
216
18
14
5
77
29
48
124
19
26
33

.0
.0
.1
.3
.1
.1
.0
.2
.0
.1
.1
.0
.8
.2
.1
.2
.0
.0
.0
.1
.0
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0

.0
.0
.1
.3
.1
.1
.0
.2
.0
.0
.1
.0
.6
.2
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0

-1
-2
7
1
-5
-5
0
4
5
-10
9
2
-152
29
0
-99
-4
-3
-2
-13
-8
-5
-56
-8
-8
-20

-2.6
-7.7
6.6
.3
-4.7
-5.2
1.3
1.2
9.2
-11.2
4.6
9.3
-14.1
12.3
-.2
-31.5
-19.0
-16.1
-26.1
-14.0
-21.2
-9.1
-31.0
-28.7
-22.6
-38.6

10
8
31
128
26
24
2
95
18
21
55
7
240
91
14
39
6
5
1
16
6
9
33
7
8
6

66
156

46
147

.0
.1

.0
.1

-20
-9

-30.3
-5.9

12
41

27
11
56
61
374
147
39
9
4
4
151
56
95
29
346
51
3
12
35
55
99
141
58
12
39
32
3,010
94
58

24
8
51
63
393
160
41
10
5
5
153
56
98
29
353
51
3
12
36
56
115
132
51
13
35
33
3,240
92
56

.0
.0
.0
.0
.3
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.0
.1
.0
.2
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
2.1
.1
.0

.0
.0
.0
.0
.2
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.0
.1
.0
.2
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
2.0
.1
.0

-4
-3
-5
2
19
14
1
1
0
0
3
0
3
0
7
0
0
0
0
0
16
-9
-7
1
-4
2
230
-2
-2

-13.1
-24.6
-8.7
3.3
5.1
9.4
3.3
11.1
10.3
11.8
1.8
-.2
3.0
1.7
2.0
-.7
-3.2
-3.0
.3
.3
16.0
-6.2
-12.3
6.7
-11.0
5.6
7.7
-2.0
-3.8

5
5
14
16
115
50
9
3
2
2
44
16
28
9
120
14
1
3
10
10
50
46
18
5
12
12
977
30
19

111

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

95

Occupational Employment

Table 2.

Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Employment

Change

Percent
distribution

Number
2000 standard occupation classification code and title

Number Percent
2002

51-9012

2012

2002

2012

36
196
45
45
106
109
31
77

36
192
44
49
99
116
33
83

0.0

0.0

.1
.0
.0
.1
.1
.0
.1

.1
.0
.0
.1
.1
.0
.0

51-9051
51-9061
51-9071
51-9080
51-9081
51-9082
51-9083
51-9111
51-9120
51-9121
51-9122
51-9123
51-9130
51-9131
51-9132
51-9141
51-9190
51-9191
51-9192
51-9193
51-9194
51-9195
51-9196
51-9197
51-9198
51-9199

Separating, filtering, clarifying, precipitating, and still machine setters,
operators, and tenders .............................................................................
Crushing, grinding, polishing, mixing, and blending workers............................
Crushing, grinding, and polishing machine setters, operators, and tenders ...
Grinding and polishing workers, hand...........................................................
Mixing and blending machine setters, operators, and tenders.......................
Cutting workers .................................................................................................
Cutters and trimmers, hand...........................................................................
Cutting and slicing machine setters, operators, and tenders........................
Extruding, forming, pressing, and compacting machine setters, operators, and
tenders
.....................................................................................................
Furnace, kiln, oven, drier, and kettle operators and tenders..............................
Inspectors, testers, sorters, samplers, and weighers........................................
Jewelers and precious stone and metal workers..............................................
Medical, dental, and ophthalmic laboratory technicians.....................................
Dental laboratory technicians........................................................................
Medical appliance technicians ......................................................................
Ophthalmic laboratory technicians................................................................
Packaging and filling machine operators and tenders ......................................
Painting workers................................................................................................
Coating, painting, and spraying machine setters, operators, and tenders.....
Painters, transportation equipment ...............................................................
Painting, coating, and decorating workers ....................................................
Photographic process workers and processing machine operators...................
Photographic process workers......................................................................
Photographic processing machine operators................................................
Semiconductor processors................................................................................
Miscellaneous production workers....................................................................
Cementing and gluing machine operators and tenders ................................
Cleaning, washing, and metal pickling equipment operators and tenders.....
Cooling and freezing equipment operators and tenders ...............................
Etchers and engravers..................................................................................
Molders, shapers, and casters, except metal and plastic ..............................
Paper goods machine setters, operators, and tenders.................................
Tire builders ..................................................................................................
Helpers—Production workers .......................................................................
All other production workers..........................................................................

73
31
515
40
94
47
14
33
387
187
103
50
34
82
28
54
46
1,155
27
18
7
10
46
117
14
467
449

73
29
539
42
101
49
16
36
468
211
112
59
40
89
30
59
42
1,245
28
19
8
10
49
114
15
503
500

.1
.0
.4
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.3
.1
.1
.0
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.8
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.0
.3
.3

.0
.0
.3
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.3
.1
.1
.0
.0
.1
.0
.0
.0
.8
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.0
.3
.3

53-0000

Transportation and material moving occupations .....................................................

9,828

11,111

6.8

6.7

53-1000
53-1011
53-1021

Supervisors, transportation and material moving workers ....................................
Aircraft cargo handling supervisors...................................................................
First-line supervisors/managers of helpers, laborers, and material movers,
hand
........................................................................................................
First-line supervisors/managers of transportation and material-moving machine
and vehicle operators
...............................................................................
Air transportation occupations...............................................................................
Aircraft pilots and flight engineers.....................................................................
Airline pilots, copilots, and flight engineers...................................................
Commercial pilots..........................................................................................
Air traffic controllers and airfield operations specialists .....................................
Air traffic controllers ......................................................................................
Airfield operations specialists........................................................................
All other air transportation workers2..................................................................
Motor vehicle operators.........................................................................................
Ambulance drivers and attendants, except emergency medical technicians.....
Bus drivers ........................................................................................................
Bus drivers, transit and intercity....................................................................
Bus drivers, school........................................................................................
Driver/sales workers and truck drivers..............................................................
Driver/sales workers......................................................................................
Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer .........................................................
Truck drivers, light or delivery services.........................................................
Taxi drivers and chauffeurs...............................................................................
All other motor vehicle operators ......................................................................
Rail transportation occupations.............................................................................
Locomotive engineers and operators................................................................

364
9

411
10

.3
.0

.2
.0

147

168

.1

207
144
100
79
21
32
26
6
12
4,136
17
654
202
453
3,221
431
1,767
1,022
132
111
101
33

232
168
118
94
24
36
29
7
14
4,896
22
761
233
528
3,813
450
2,104
1,259
161
139
96
31

.1
.1
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
2.9
.0
.5
.1
.3
2.2
.3
1.2
.7
.1
.1
.1
.0

51-9020
51-9021
51-9022
51-9023
51-9030
51-9031
51-9032
51-9041

53-1031
53-2000
53-2010
53-2011
53-2012
53-2020
53-2021
53-2022
53-2099
53-3000
53-3011
53-3020
53-3021
53-3022
53-3030
53-3031
53-3032
53-3033
53-3041
53-3099
53-4000
53-4010

96

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

Total job
openings
due to
growth
and net
replace­
ments,
2002-121

0
-4
-1
4
-7
7
2
5

0.8
-2.1
-2.8
9.0
-6.5
6.9
7.6
6.6

12
55
12
16
28
30
9
21

0

-.1
-4.9
4.7
4.5
7.4
3.6
16.1
9.2
21.1
13.0
9.4
17.5
17.6
7.9
5.4
9.2
-10.6
7.8
1.1
6.9
7.1
6.1
6.4
-2.8
6.6
7.7
11.3

19
7
141
10
27
12
5
10
159
73
36
22
15
27
9
18
10
388
8
7
3
3
14
25
4
167
158

1,282

13.0

3,496

47
1

12.9
15.6

132
3

.1

21

14.0

55

.1
.1
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
3.0
.0
.5
.1
.3
2.3
.3
1.3
.8
.1
.1
.1
.0

25
24
18
15
3
4
3
1
2
760
5
106
31
76
592
19
337
237
29
28
-5
-2

12.1
17.0
17.8
18.5
14.9
13.5
12.6
17.2
19.4
18.4
26.7
16.2
15.2
16.7
18.4
4.3
19.0
23.2
21.7
25.2
-5.3
-7.2

74
62
45
36
9
12
10
3
5
1,385
6
249
75
174
1,045
89
625
331
41
44
28
10

-2
24
2
7
2
2
3
82
24
10
9
6
6
2
5
-5
90

0
1
1
1
3
-3
1
36
51

Table 2.

Continued—Employment by occupation, 2002 and projected 2012

[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Employment
Number
2000 standard occupation classification code and title

Change

Percent
distribution
Number Percent

2002

53-4021
53-4031
53-4039
53-5000
53-5011
53-5020
53-5021
53-5022
53-5031
53-5099
53-6000
53-6011
53-6021
53-6031
53-6041
53-6051
53-6099
53-7000
53-7011
53-7021
53-7030
53-7031
53-7032
53-7033
53-7041
53-7051
53-7060
53-7061
53-7062
53-7063
53-7064
53-7070
53-7071
53-7072
53-7073
53-7081
53-7111
53-7121
53-7199

Railroad brake, signal, and switch operators....................................................
Railroad conductors and yardmasters..............................................................
Subway, streetcar operators and all other rail transportation workers5 .............
Water transportation occupations .........................................................................
Sailors and marine oilers..................................................................................
Captains, mates, and pilots of water vessels................................................
Motorboat operators.....................................................................................

Other transportation workers.................................................................................
Bridge and lock tenders ...................................................................................
Parking lot attendants ......................................................................................
Service station attendants.................................................................................

Material moving occupations.................................................................................
Crane and tower operators ...............................................................................
Dredge, excavating, and loading machine operators........................................
Dredge operators.........................................................................................
Loading machine operators, underground mining.........................................
Hoist and winch operators.................................................................................
Industrial truck and tractor operators ................................................................

Laborers and freight, stock, and material movers, hand...............................
Machine feeders and offbearers ...................................................................
Pumping station operators................................................................................
Pump operators, except wellhead pumpers..................................................
Wellhead pumpers.......................................................................................
Refuse and recyclable material collectors.........................................................
Shuttle car operators........................................................................................

1 Total job openings represent the sum of employment increases and net
replacements. If employment change is negative, job openings due to growth are
zero and total job openings equal net replacements.
2 This occupation was created by the OES survey. There is no SOC equivalent.
3 This minor occupation group contains a detailed occupation from another

Professional and related
occupations subgroup

Percent Numeric change
change (in thousands)

Computer and mathematical.......... ..... 34.8
Community and social service...... ..... 26.2
Healthcare practitioners
and technical............................. .....26.0
Education, training, and library..... ..... 24.7
Life, physical, and social science ........ 17.2
Arts, design, entertainment,
sports, and media...................... ..... 16.5
Legal............................................... .....16.2
Architecture and engineering.......... ..... 8.6


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1,051
574
1,708
2,109
212
393
190
222

15
38
15
68
27
29
25
4
8
4
294
4
107
107
6
29
40
4,722
58
50
87
3
80
4
9
594
3,659
344
2,231
164
920
32
7
13
11
134
3
17
78

2012

12
36
17
70
28
30
26
4
9
4
326
3
128
111
6
32
47
5,144
65
55
94
3
87
3
10
659
3,967
374
2,378
162
1,052
30
7
13
10
158
2
17
86

2002

2012

0.0

0.0

.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.2
.0
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
3.3
.0
.0
.1
.0
.1
.0
.0
.4
2.5
.2
1.5
.1
.6
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.0
.0
.1

.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.0
.2
.0
.1
.1
.0
.0
.0
3.1
.0
.0
.1
.0
.1
.0
.0
.4
2.4
.2
1.4
.1
.6
.0
.0
.0
.0
.1
.0
.0
.1

-3
-2
2
2
1
1
1
0
0
0
32
-1
21
4
1
2
6
422
7
5
7
0
7
-1
1
66
308
30
147
-2
132
-2
0
-1
-1
24
-1

0
8

-22.8
-4.2
13.2
3.4
4.0
2.4
2.4
2.7
4.5
5.6
11.0
-17.4
19.2
3.3
9.3
7.7
15.1
8.9
12.4
10.8
7.5
.3
8.9
-14.1
13.0
11.1
8.4
8.7
6.6
-1.4
14.4
-6.0
1.0
-5.0
-11.7
17.6
-31.3
-2.1
10.0

Total job
openings
due to
growth
and net
replace­
ments,
2002-121

2
10
7
25
11
9
8
1
4
1
135
1
52
52
2
9
18
1,729
24
16
31
1
29
1
4
178
1,376
150
876
45
305
7
2
3
3
58
1
5
29

minor occupation group.
4 Information about the detailed residual occupation for this broad occupation is
not included.
5 This occupation contains two or more detailed SOC occupations.
NOTE: Detail may not equal total or 100 percent due to rounding.

This group is projected to grow as the school-age population
increases; a greater proportion of preschool-age children
attend school; a greater proportion of students are provided
with special education; and classes becom e smaller. In
addition, rapid growth is expected in the number of adults
attending both career and job training schools and self­
enrichment classes. More than 3 out of 5 new jobs are projected
for governm ent and 1 in 5 for rapidly-grow ing private
educational services.4
Healthcare practitioners and technical occupations are pro­
jected to add 1.7 million jobs, as the demand for healthcare

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

97

Occupational Employment

services continues to grow rapidly. (See p. 101 for a discus­
sion o f reasons for growth.) More than 3 out of 4 new jobs in
these occupations are expected to be in the healthcare indus­
try. Relatively few new jobs, and slow growth, are projected in
government.5 Registered nurses, by far the largest occupa­
tion in this group, should account for more than 1 out of 3 new
jobs. The number of self-employed workers in this group is
projected to decline slightly. Self-employed physicians are
expected to decline significantly, as employment shifts into
incorporated group practices, while self-employed registered
nurses, chiropractors, veterinarians, and speech-language
pathologists are projected to increase.
Computer and mathematical occupations are projected to
add 1.1 m illion jobs, and grow the fastest among the eight
subgroups. The demand for computer-related occupations
should increase, despite the recent downturn, as a result of
rapid advances in computer technology and the demand for
new computer applications, including those for the Internet
and Intranets. Growth will not be as rapid as during the pre­
vious decade, however, as the software industry begins to
mature and as routine work is increasingly outsourced over­
seas. More than a third of new jobs will be in computer sys­
tems design and related services, and one-fifth will be in the
information industry— primarily in software publishers, data
processing and related, and Internet-related industries. In
both groups, projected growth for these occupations exceeds
50 percent. In addition, in many industries, employment of
these workers is projected to grow faster than the average for
all occupations. Self-employed computer and mathematical
workers are expected to increase 39.8 percent.
Community and social services occupations are projected
to add 574,000 jobs. Continued rapid growth should result as
the elderly population increases rapidly and as greater efforts
are m ade to provide services for the disabled, the sick,
substance abusers, and individuals and families in crisis.
Within this occupational group, about 3 out of 5 new jobs are
expected to be in the healthcare and social assistance industry
and 1 out of 5 in religious organizations. Slow growth and 1
new job in 8 are projected for the large government sector.
A rts , d e s ig n , e n te rta in m e n t, sp o rts , and m ed ia
occupations are projected to add 393,000 jobs. About onefifth of these new jobs is projected for professional, scientific,
and technical services, which includes both advertising and
computer systems design and related services. One job in
seven is projected for the information sector, which includes
both motion pictures and publishing industries. About onesixth o f the growth is expected for self-employed workers (a
9.3-percent increase), with largest increases for writers and
authors, graphic designers, m usicians and singers, and
photographers.
Architecture and engineering jobs are projected to grow
slowly, adding 222,000 jobs. About 2 out of 5 new jobs in

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these occupations are projected for the professional, scientific,
and technical services industry. One new job in 6 is projected
for the rapidly growing employment services industry, which
provides employees to other industries on a contract or fee
basis. One new job in 8 is projected for government. In
manufacturing industries— which employed a third of these
workers in 2002— little change is projected. Engineers, the
largest occupational subgroup, is expected to grow 7.3 percent.
Life, physical, and social scientists are projected to add
212,000 jobs. More than a quarter of these jobs are projected
for the professional, scientific, and technical services industry
which includes scientific consulting services and scientific
research and development services. Nearly a quarter of new
jobs is projected in government and 1 new job in 7 is projected
for rapidly-growing healthcare and social assistance. Selfemployed are projected to grow slowly, with most growth
among psychologists.
Legal occupations are projected to add 190,000 jobs, with
about 7 of 10 projected for the legal services industry, where
these occupations should increase rapidly. A quarter of all
growth is projected for government. Paralegals and legal
assistants are projected to grow the fastest, while lawyers
should add the most jobs, 118,000. The number of selfemployed workers in this group is projected to decline 7.0
percent, all am ong law yers, reflecting the difficulty in
establishing new legal practices.
Employment in service occupations is projected to increase
by 5.3 million, the second largest numerical gain and second
highest rate of growth among the major occupational groups.
For these occupations, about 3 out of 10 new jobs, and fastest
growth, are projected for the healthcare and social assistance
industry. A quarter of new jobs are projected for the accommo­
dation and food services industry. The number of self-em­
ployed service workers is projected to increase slightly.
Of the five subgroups making up service occupations, food
preparation and serving-related occupations was the largest
in 2002— with 10.2 million jobs— and is projected to add the
most jobs, about 1.6 million. Nevertheless, it has the slowest
projected growth. (See table 2.) Nearly 4 of 5 new jobs are
projected for the accommodation and food services industry.
The following tabulation shows the percent and numeric
change for the services occupation subgroups:
P ercen t

N u m e ric ch a n g e

ch a n g e

( in th o u sa n d s)

Healthcare support....................34.5
Protective service......................24.7
Personal care and service...........20.6
Building and grounds
cleaning and maintenance........16.4
Food preparation
and serving related.................15.8

1,143
769
917
901
1,607

Healthcare support occupations are projected to add 1.1 mil­
lion jobs, growing the fastest of the services subgroups. (See
p. 101 for a discussion of reasons for growth.) Seven out of
eight new jobs are projected for the healthcare and social as­
sistance industry. Self-employed healthcare support occupa­
tions are projected to grow 16.6 percent, with most growth
among massage therapists.
Personal care and service occupations are projected to add
917,000 jobs. Nearly half of new jobs, and the fastest growth
(51.6 percent) for these occupations, are projected in the
healthcare and social assistance industry. One new job in 6 is
projected for arts, entertainment, and recreation, which in­
cludes amusement parks and fitness and recreational sports
centers. Overall growth is retarded by a 1.6-percent decline
among the self-employed, who made up a quarter of all work­
ers in this group in 2002. Declines among self-employed are
primarily among first-line supervisors/managers of personal
care and service workers (mostly proprietors of small busi­
nesses) and childcare workers.
Building and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupa­
tions are projected to add 901,000 jobs. Forty-five percent of
new jobs, and fast growth, are projected for administrative
and support and waste management and remediation services,
which includes both services to buildings and dwellings and
em ploym ent services. A bout 1 job in 8 is projected for
healthcare and social assistance and 1 in 10 each in accommo­
dation and food service and government. A 39,000 decline is
projected in the private household sector, where 10 percent of
these workers were employed. Only 2.9-percent growth is
projected for the self-employed. Among the self-employed,
landscaping and groundskeeping workers, as well as first-line
supervisors/managers of these workers, are projected to in­
crease, while maids and housekeeping cleaners are expected
to decline.
Protective service occupations are projected to add 769,000
jobs. H alf of the growth is projected for government, and
nearly two-fifths is projected for rapidly growing investigation
and security services.
Employment in s a l e s a n d r e l a t e d o c c u p a t i o n s is projected
to increase by 2 million. More than 3 out of 5 new jobs are
projected for retail trade, and 1 in 8 for wholesale trade. The
self-employed made up 12 percent of this group in 2002. Their
employment is projected to decline by 9 percent, with the larg­
est decreases among self-employed first-line supervisors/man­
agers of sales workers (owners of stores or other marketing
businesses); retail sales workers; and door-to-door sales
workers, news and street vendors, and related workers.
Employment in o f f i c e a n d a d m i n i s t r a t i v e s u p p o r t o c c u p a ­
tio n s is projected to increase by 1.6 million but grow slowly.
More than a quarter of these new jobs are projected for rapidly-growing employment services, which provides employ­
ees to other industries on a contract or fee basis. A quarter of


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new jobs are projected for the healthcare and social assis­
tance industries, and 1 in 6 for professional, scientific, and
technical services. In almost all industries, employment of
these workers are expected to grow more slowly than overall
employment, due to continued office automation, including
that related to electronic business,6 and as organizations make
greater use of temporary workers employed by the employ­
ment services industry. Thirteen out of 30 occupations with
the largest projected job declines, including word processors
and typists; stock clerks and order fillers; and secretaries, ex­
cept legal, medical, and executive, are in this group. (See table
5.) However, a number of personal-contact occupations, such
as receptionists and information clerks, and bill and account
collectors, are less affected by changing technology, and have
relatively large projected growth.
F a r m i n g , f i s h i n g , a n d f o r e s t r y o c c u p a t i o n s are projected
to grow by 35,000jobs. Self-employed are projected to decline
7.6 percent, with most declines among fishers and related
fishing workers. (Agricultural managers, including farmers
and ranchers, are classified with management, business, and
financial occupations.)
The c o n s t r u c t i o n a n d e x tr a c t i o n o c c u p a t i o n s major group
is projected to add 1.1 million jobs, with 7 out of 10 in the
construction industry. One new job in 9, and fastest growth,
is projected for the employment services industry. A decline of
10.000 is projected for the mining industry— mostly for extrac­
tion workers. Self-employed construction and extraction work­
ers are projected to increase slightly. Self-employed first-line
supervisors/managers of construction trades and extraction
workers (mostly contractors) are projected to increase, while
self-employed carpenters are projected to decline.
I n s t a l l a t i o n , m a i n t e n a n c e , a n d r e p a i r o c c u p a t i o n s are
projected to add 776,000 jobs. About 1 new job in 6 is pro­
jected for retail trade, which includes motor vehicle and parts
dealers; 1 new job in 8 is projected for the construction indus­
try, and 1 in 10, for automotive repair and maintenance. Selfemployed workers in this group are projected to remain un­
changed. Self-em ployed heating, air conditioning, and
refrigeration mechanics and installers are projected to in­
crease, but others are projected to decline.
P r o d u c t i o n o c c u p a t i o n s are expected to add 354,000 jobs.
Most growth is projected for rapidly-growing employment
services, which provides employees to other industries on a
contract or fee basis, while some growth is projected for
wholesale and retail trade. Manufacturing, which employed 7
out of 10 production workers in 2002, is projected to lose nearly
200.000 of these workers. Self-employed production workers
are projected to decline 8.8 percent, with largest declines
among apparel occupations and woodworkers.
T r a n s p o r t a t i o n a n d m a t e r i a l m o v i n g o c c u p a t i o n s are
projected to add 1.3 million jobs. More than 2 out of 5 new
jobs should be in transportation and warehousing, and 1 in 4,

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Occupational Employment

in employment services. Little change is projected for these
workers in manufacturing, where 1 out of 6 was employed in
2002. Water transportation occupations are projected to grow
slowly, while railroad occupations continue their long-term
decline. Nearly half of new jobs should be for truck drivers
and driver/sales workers. Little change is projected for selfemployed transportation workers.

D e ta ile d o c c u p a tio n s
This section focuses in occupations that are the fastest grow­
ing, have the largest numeric increases, and have the largest
numeric declines. Data on numeric and percent growth for
nearly 700 detailed occupations are presented in table 2.

Table 3.

The growth rates for detailed occupations range from an
increase of 59 percent for medical assistants to a decline of 56
percent for telephone operators. Numeric growth ranges from
623.000 additional jobs for registered nurses to a decline of
238.000 farmers and ranchers. The 30 occupations with the
largest numeric increase (table 4) account for 44 percent of the
21.3-million total increase over the 2002-12 period. The 30
occupations that are projected as the fastest growing (table 3)
have growth rates of 35 percent or greater, more than twice the
average for all occupations or faster. Six occupations— three
health related, two computer, and one education, are included in
both groups—personal and home care aides; medical assistants;
home health aides; computer software engineers, application;
computer systems analysts; and postsecondary teachers.

Fastest growing occupations, 2002-12

[Numbers In thousands of jobs]
Employment

Change

2000 standard occupation classification code and title
2002

2012

Number

Percent

Quartile
rank by
2002
median
annual
earningsi

Most significant source of postsecondary
education or training2

31-9092 Medical assistants................................................
15-1081 Network systems and data communications analysts
29-1071 Physician assistants.............................................
21-1093 Social and human service assistants.....................
31-1011 Home health aides...............................................
29-2071 Medical records and health information technicians
31-2022 Physical therapist aides........................................
15-1031 Computer software engineers, applications............
15-1032 Computer software engineers, systems software....
31-2021 Physical therapist assistants.................................

365
186
63
305
580
147
37
394
281
50

579
292
94
454
859
216
54
573
409
73

215
106
31
149
279
69
17
179
128
22

59
57
49
49
48
47
46
46
45
45

3
1
1
3
4
3
3
1
1
2

Moderate-term on-the-job training
Bachelor’s degree
Bachelor’s degree
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training
Associate degree
Short-term on-the-job training
Bachelor’s degree
Bachelor’s degree
Associate degree

39-9031 Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors................
15-1061 Database administrators.......................................
29-2056 Veterinary technologists and technicians................
47-4041 Hazardous materials removal workers...................
29-2021 Dental hygienists..................................................
31-2012 Occupational therapist aides.................................
31-9091 Dental assistants..................................................
39-9021 Personal and home care aides..............................
25-3021 Self-enrichment education teachers.......................
15-1051 Computer systems analysts..................................

183
110
53
38
148
8
266
608
200
468

264
159
76
54
212
12
379
854
281
653

81
49
23
16
64
4
113
246
80
184

44
44
44
43
43
43
42
40
40
39

3
1
3
2
1
3
3
4
2
1

Postsecondary vocational award
Bachelor’s degree
Associate degree
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Associate degree
Short-term on-the-job training
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training
Work experience in a related occupation
Bachelor’s degree

18
47
1,581
251

26
65
2,184
345

7
18
603
94

39
38
38
37

2
1
1
1

Associate degree
Bachelor’s degree
Doctoral degree
Bachelor’s degree

28
424
284
137
82
86

38
577
387
185
110
116

10
153
103
48
29
30

37
36
36
35
35
35

2
4
1
1
1
2

Associate degree
Postsecondary vocational award
Bachelor’s or higher degree, plus work experience
Master’s degree
Bachelor’s degree
Associate degree

31-2011
17-2081
25-1000
15-1071
19-4091

Occupational therapist assistants..........................
Environmental engineers......................................
Postsecondary teachers........................................
Network and computer systems administrators......
Environmental science and protection technicians,
including health .................................................
25-2011 Preschool teachers, except special education........
11-3021 Computer and information systems managers.......
29-1123 Physical therapists...............................................
29-1122 Occupational therapists.........................................
29-1126 Respiratory therapists..........................................

1 The quartile rankings of Occupational Employment Statistics annual earnings
data are presented in the following categories: 1=very high ($41,820 and over),
2=high ($27,500 to $41,780), 3=low ($19,710 to $27,380), and 4=very low (up to
$19,600). The rankings were based on quartiles using one-fourth of total
employment to define each quartile. Earnings are for wage and salary workers.

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2 An occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the
education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified. For more
information about the categories, see Occupational Projections and Training Data,
Bulletin 2572 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming).

Table 4.

Occupations with the largest job growth, 2002-12

[Numbers in thousands of jobs]
Employment

Change

2000 standard occupation classification code and title
2002

2012

Number

Percent

Quartile
rank by
2002
median
annual
earningsi

Most significant source of postsecondary
education or training^

Registered nurses...................................................
Postsecondary teachers..........................................
Retail salespersons.................................................
Customer service representatives...........................
Combined food preparation and senring workers,
including fast food ................................................
Cashiers, except gaming.........................................
Janitors and cleaners, except maids and
housekeeping cleaners........................................
General and operations managers..........................
Waiters and waitresses...........................................
Nursing aides, orderlies, and attendants.................

2,284
1,581
4,076
1,894

2,908
2,184
4,672
2,354

623
603
596
460

27
38
15
24

1
1
4
3

Associate degree
Doctoral degree
Short-term on-the-job training
Moderate-term on-the-job training

1,990
3,432

2,444
3,886

454
454

23
13

4
4

Short-term on-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training

2,267
2,049
2,097
1,375

2,681
2,425
2,464
1,718

414
376
367
343

18
18
18
25

4
1
4
3

Short-term on-the-job training
Bachelor's or higher degree, plus work experience
Short-term on-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training

Truck drivers, heavy and tractor-trailer...................
Receptionists and information clerks ......................
Security guards.......................................................
Office clerks, general ..............................................
Teacher assistants..................................................
Sales representatives, wholesale and
manufacturing, except technical and scientific
products...............................................................
Home
health a ide s..................................................
31-1011
39-9021 Personal and home care aides ...............................
53-3033 Truck drivers, light or delivery services...................
37-3011 Landscaping and groundskeeping workers..............

1,767
1,100
995
2,991
1,277

2,104
1,425
1,313
3,301
1,571

337
325
317
310
294

19
29
32
10
23

2
3
4
3
4

Moderate-term on-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training

1,459
580
608
1,022
1,074

1,738
859
854
1,259
1,311

279
279
246
237
237

19
48
40
23
22

1
4
4
3
3

Moderate-term on-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training
Short-term on-the-job training

1,467
365
1,266
1,055
468

1,690
579
1,472
1,261
653

223
215
207
205
184

15
59
16
19
39

2
3
2
1
1

Bachelor’s degree
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Moderate-term on-the-job training
Bachelor’s degree
Bachelor’s degree

988
394
577
850

1,167
573
753
1,022

180
179
176
172

18
46
30
20

1
1
1
4

Bachelor's degree
Bachelor’s degree
Bachelor’s or higher degree, plus work experience
Short-term on-the-job training

1,798

1,962

163

9

2

Work experience in a related occupation

29-1111
25-1000
41-2031
43-4051
35-3021
41-2011
37-2011
11-1021
35-3031
31-1012
53-3032
43-4171
33-9032
43-9061
25-9041
41-4012

25-2021
31-9092
49-9042
13-2011
15-1051
25-2031
15-1031
13-1111
35-2021
41-1011

Elementary school teachers, except special
education..............................................................
Medical assistants...................................................
Maintenance and repair workers, general................
Accountants and auditors........................................
Computer systems analysts....................................
Secondary school teachers, except special and
vocational education.............................................
Computer software engineers, applications.............
Management analysts.............................................
Food preparation workers.......................................
First-line supervisors/managers of retail sales
workers................................................................

1
The quartile rankings of Occupational Employment Statistics annual earnings
data are presented in the following categories: 1=very high ($41,820 and over),
2=high ($27,500 to $41,780), 3=low ($19,710 to $27,380), and 4=very low (up to
$19,600). The rankings were based on quartiles using one-fourth of total
employment to define each quartile. Earnings are for wage and salary workers.

Fastest growing occupations. Fifteen o f the 30 fastest
growing occupations are health related, 7 are computer-related
occupations, 3 are teachers, and 3 are environment related.
(See table 3.) The others are social and hum an services
assistants, and fitness trainers and aerobics instructors.
The two healthcare groups discussed in the previous sec­
tion— healthcare practitioners and technical occupations, and
healthcare support occupations— have a combined growth
rate of 28.8 percent. Rapid growth among health-related occu­
pations reflects an aging population that requires more
healthcare, a w ealthier population that can afford better
healthcare, and advances in medical technology that permit
more health problems to be treated more aggressively. How-


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2
An occupation is placed into one of 11 categories that best describes the
education or training needed by most workers to become fully qualified. For more
information about the categories, see Occupational Projections and Training Data,
Bulletin 2572 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming).

ever, job growth among health-related occupations will be lim­
ited by efforts to control the rapid growth of spending on
healthcare, both by private medical insurers and by govern­
ment—to restrict the growth of Medicare and Medicaid reim ­
bursements. Even so, continued efforts to control healthcare
costs should stim ulate some health-related occupations
(mostly aides, assistants, and technicians) to grow even more
rapidly than overall health employment. They will assume
some duties formerly done by more highly paid healthcare
workers, such as dentists, physicians, and therapists. These
include dental assistants, dental hygienists, physician assis­
tants, physical therapist assistants and aides, and occupa­
tional therapist assistants and aides. Some healthcare occu-

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February 2004

101

Occupational Employment

pations also will grow more rapidly than overall healthcare
employment because they are more likely to provide services
to the rapidly growing older population. These include some
listed above, such as physical and occupational therapist as­
sistants and aides, as well as physical therapists, occupational
therapists, and respiratory therapists. Employment of medical
assistants should grow the fastest of any occupation, as they
perform an increasing share of administrative and clinical du­
ties in rapidly-growing offices of physicians.
The number of medical records and health information
technicians employed also is expected to grow rapidly due to
the need to maintain records for an increasing number of
medical tests, treatments, and procedures that will undergo
greater scrutiny by third-party payers, regulators, courts, and
consumers. Employment of home health aides and of personal
and home care aides (included in this discussion of healthrelated occupations but classified as a personal service
occupation in table 2) also should be stimulated, as the older
population grows and as efforts to contain healthcare costs
continue. The older population is more likely to need in-home
healthcare, as well as personal care and housekeeping that
these workers provide. In addition, patients of all ages are
being discharged from hospitals and nursing facilities as early
as possible. These aides also provide care to this rapidly
grow ing group o f p atien ts. E m ploym ent o f v eterinary
technologists and technicians, also classified as a healthcare
occupation, is projected to grow rapidly as pet owners spend
more on advanced animal care services, such as preventive
dental care and surgical procedures.
The increasing demand for computer-related occupations
reflects the rapid advances in computer technology and the
continuing development of new computer applications, includ­
ing the Internet and Intranets. Overall, computer specialists, a
component of computer and mathematical occupations, is pro­
jected to grow 35.8 percent; and computer and information
systems managers— classified within management, business,
and financial occupations— is projected to grow 36.1 percent.
(See table 2.) Two computer-related occupations also are
among the occupations with the largest projected numerical
job growth. (See table 4).
Employment of environmental engineers; environmental
science and protection technicians, including health; and
hazardous material removal workers will be stimulated by a
need to met environmental regulations, develop methods of
cleaning up existing hazards, and, more generally, respond to
increasing public concern for a safe and clean environment.
Employment of postsecondary school teachers is projected
to grow as the population of 18- to 24-year-olds increases and
as more adults return to college, but the number of tenuretrack positions is expected to decline as institutions seek
flexibility in dealing with financial matters and changing
student interests. Employment of preschool teachers, except

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special education, should grow as the proportion of preschoolage children attending school increases, while employment of
self-enrichment education teachers is expected to grow as
more people embrace lifelong learning, particularly retired baby
boomers.
Fitness trainers and aerobics instructors are projected to
grow rapidly, due to rising interest in personal training, aero­
bics classes, and other fitness activities. Social and human
service assistants are projected to grow rapidly as employers
attempt to control costs in the face of rapid growth in demand
for services. Social service agencies are restructuring ser­
vices and hiring more lower-paid social and human service
assistants instead of social workers.
Twenty-one of the 30 fastest growing occupations generally
require a postsecondary vocational award or a degree.7 This
is consistent with growth rates by major group presented in
the previous section. The fastest growing group, professional
and related, is made up mostly of occupations that generally
require this level of education. Thirteen of the fastest growing
occupations are concentrated in the first earnings quartile and
eight in the third earnings quartile.

Occupations with the largest job growth. Very large occupa­
tions with average or even below-average growth rates pro­
vide many job openings, as do very fast growing ones with
smaller base-year employment. These 30 occupations shown
on table 4 are from a much broader range of occupational
groups than are the 30 fastest growing. Five are health re­
lated, and six are service occupations other than those related
to health, including three in food service and two in building
and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations. Four
each are in education, training, and library, and in sales and
related occupations. Three each are in management, busi­
ness, and financial, and in office and administrative support
occupations; and two each are in computer and mathematical,
and in transportation and material moving major occupation
groups; one is installation, maintenance, and repair.
Twenty-one of the 30 had 2002 employment of 1 million or
more. O f the others, seven have projected growth at least
twice the 14.8-percent average for all occupations. The three
largest occupations in 2002, each with employment of 3 million
or more, are projected to grow more slowly than the total for all
occupations.
Registered nurses and nursing aides, orderlies, and atten­
dants— by far the two largest health-related occupations in
2002— are projected to have more numerical growth than any
other health-related occupations. Home health aides, m edi­
cal assistants, and personal and home care aides, all among
the 30 fastest growing, are also on this list. The four largest
education, training, and library occupations in 2002—
postsecondary teachers; elementary school teachers, except
special education; teachers assistants; and secondary school

teachers, except special and vocational education— are also
among the top 30 occupations. O f the four sales and related
occupations: retail salespersons and cashiers, except gam­
ing are projected to grow about as fast as the average for all
occupations; w hile sales representatives, w holesale and
manufacturing, except technical and scientific products are
projected to grow somewhat faster. First-line supervisors/
managers o f retail sales workers are projected to grow rela­
tively slowly, with a 9.7-percent decline among the self-em­
ployed (owners of stores and other retail businesses).
Management analysts and security guards are projected to
grow about twice as fast as the average for all occupations, while
accountants and auditors and general and operations managers
should grow somewhat faster than the average. The list has
three food-service occupations— combined food preparation
and serving workers, including fast food and waiters and wait­
resses, have base-year employment of about 2 million, while

Table 5.

food preparation workers has 850,000. Of the two transportation
and material moving occupations: truck drivers, heavy and trac­
tor trailer; and truck drivers, light and delivery services, are pro­
jected to grow 19 and 23 percent, respectively. Among building
and grounds cleaning and maintenance occupations, janitors
and cleaners is projected to have more openings than landscap­
ing and groundskeeping workers, even though the latter is pro­
jected to grow faster. Of the three office and administrative sup­
port occupations, custom er service representatives and
receptionists and information clerks are projected to grow
rapidly, while office clerks, general, with employment of 3 mil­
lion, is projected to grow relatively slowly.
H alf of the 30 occupations with the largest numerical job
growth are in the short-term on-the-job training category, and
9 are in the associate or higher degree category. O f those
with the largest numeric increases, 9 are in the first, and 10 are
in the fourth earnings quartile.

Occupations with the largest job decline, 2002-12

[N u m b ers in th ou sands of jobs]
E m p lo y m e n t

Change

2 0 0 0 s ta n d a rd o c c u p a tio n c la s s ific a tio n c o d e a n d title
2002

1 1 -9 0 1 2
5 1 -6 0 3 1
4 3 -9 0 2 2
4 3 -5 0 8 1
4 3 -6 0 1 4
5 1 -2 0 2 2
4 3 -9 0 1 1
4 3 -2 0 2 1
4 3 -5 0 5 3
4 3 -4 1 3 1
4 3 -9 0 2 1
4 1 -9 0 4 1
5 1 -6 0 6 3
5 1 -6 0 6 4
5 1 -2 0 9 2
4 3 -4 1 5 1
4 1 -9 0 9 1
4 1 -3 0 4 1
4 3 -4 0 1 1
4 3 -4 0 6 1
5 1 -5 0 2 2
4 5 -3 0 1 1
5 1 -6 0 5 1
5 1 -6 0 6 2
5 1 -6 0 6 1
2 7 -3 0 1 0
4 3 -5 0 4 1
5 1 -8 0 9 1
5 1 -9 0 2 3
4 3 -4 0 4 1

2012

Num ber

P e rc e n t

Q u a r tile
ra n k by
2002
m e d ia n
ann ual
e a r n in g s t

M o s t s ig n ific a n t s o u rc e o f p o s ts e c o n d a r y
e d u c a tio n o r tra in in g 2

F a rm ers and r a n c h e r s ............................................................
S ew ing m a chine o p e r a to r s ...................................................
W o rd processors an d ty p is t s ...............................................
S tock clerks a nd o rd e r fille r s ...............................................
S ecretarie s, e xc ep t legal, m edical, and e xecu tive ....
Electrical an d electronic equipm ent a s s e m b le r s ........
C o m p u ter operators ................................................................
T e le p h o n e o p e r a t o r s ...............................................................
Postal serv ice mail sorters, processors, and
processing m a chine operators .......................................
Loan interview ers and c le r k s ...............................................

1 ,1 5 8
315
241
1 ,6 2 8
1 ,9 7 5
281
182
50

920
216
1 48
1 ,5 6 0
1 ,9 1 8
230
151
22

-2 3 8
-9 9
-9 3
-6 8
-5 7
-51
-3 0
-2 8

-21
-31
-3 9
-4
-3
-1 8
-1 7
-5 6

3
4
3
4
3
3
2
2

Long-term o n-the-job training
M o d e ra te -te rm on-the-job training
M o d e ra te -te rm on-the-job training
S hort-term on-the-job training
M o d e ra te -te rm on-the-job training
S hort-term o n-the-job training
M o d e ra te -te rm o n-the-job training
S hort-term o n-the-job training

253
170

226
1 46

-2 6
-2 4

-1 0
-1 4

2
2

S hort-term on-the-job training
S hort-term on-the-job training

D a ta entry k e y e r s ......................................................................
T e le m a rk e te rs ............................................................................
T e xtile knitting an d w ea v in g m a chine setters,
operators, a n d te n d e rs .......................................................
T e xtile w inding, tw isting, an d draw ing out m achine
s etters, operators, an d ten d e rs ......................................
T e a m a s s e m b le r s ......................................................................
O rd e r c le r k s .................................................................................
D oor-to-doo r sale s w orkers, n ew s a nd street
vendors, a nd related w o r k e r s ..........................................
T ra ve l a g en ts .............................................................................
B ro k era g e clerks .......................................................................
Eligibility interview ers, g overnm ent p r o g r a m s .............

392
428

371
406

-21
-21

-5
-5

3
4

M o d e ra te -te rm on-the-job training
S hort-term on-the-job training

53

33

-2 0

-3 9

3

Long-term on-the-job training

66
1 ,1 7 4
330

46
1 ,1 5 5
311

-2 0
-1 9
-1 9

-3 0
-2
-6

3
3
3

M o d e ra te -te rm on-the-job training
M o d e ra te -te rm on-the-job training
S hort-term on-the-job training

155
1 18
78
94

137
1 02
67
83

-1 8
-1 6
-11
-11

-1 2
-1 4
-1 5
-1 2

3
3
2
2

S hort-term o n-the-job training
P ostsecondary v ocational a w a rd
M o d e ra te -te rm on -th e-jo b training
M o d e ra te -te rm o n-the-job training

91
36
36

81
27
29

-1 0
-1 0
-8

-11
-2 7
-21

2
3
4

Long-term on-the-job training
M o d e ra te -te rm on-the-job training
S hort-term on-the-job training

34

26

-8

-2 3

3

M o d e ra te -te rm o n-the-job training

27
76
54
58

19
68
46
51

-8
-8
-8
-7

-2 9
-1 0
-1 4
-1 2

3
3
2
1

M o d e ra te -te rm o n-the-job training
Long-term on-the-job training
S hort-term on-the-job training
Long-term on-the-job training

1 06
80

99
74

-7
-5

-7
-7

2
3

M o d e ra te -te rm o n -the-job training
S hort-term o n -the-job training

P repress technician s and w orkers ...................................
Fishers and related fishing w orkers .................................
S ew e rs, hand .............................................................................
T e xtile cutting m a chine setters, operators, and
te n d e rs ......................................................................................
T e x tile bleaching and dyeing m a chine operators and
te n d e rs ......................................................................................
A n n o u n c e r s .................................................................................
M e te r readers, u tilitie s ............................................................
C h e m ica l plant an d system o p e r a to r s .............................
M ixing an d blending m a chine s etters, operators, and
te n d e rs ......................................................................................
C redit a u th o riz e s , checkers, an d c le r k s ........................

1 T h e quartile rankings of O ccupational E m plo ym ent S tatistics annual earnings
d a ta a re pre se n te d in th e follow ing categories: 1 =very high ($ 4 1 ,8 2 0 an d over),
2=h ig h ($ 2 7 ,5 0 0 to $ 4 1 ,7 8 0 ), 3 = lo w ($ 1 9 ,7 1 0 to $ 2 7 ,3 8 0 ), an d 4 = v e ry low (up to
$ 1 9 ,6 0 0 ).
T h e rankings w e re b a se d on quartiles using one-fourth of total
em p lo y m e n t to defin e e ac h quartile. E arnings a re for w a g e an d s ala ry w orkers.


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2 An occupation is placed into on e of 11 categories th a t best d escribes th e
education or training n e e d e d by m ost w orkers to b e co m e fully qualified. For m ore
inform ation a bout th e categories, s e e Occupational Projections and Training Data,
Bulletin 2 5 7 2 (B ureau of L abor Statistics, forthcom ing).

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

103

Occupational Employment

Declining occupations. This section of the article focuses
just on those occupations with the largest numerical job de­
clines because many detailed occupations with the fastest
rates of decline are small, with very small employment de­
clines. (See table 5.) Thirteen of the occupations with the
largest declines are office and administrative support, 11 are
production, and 3 are sales and related. Others are farmers
and ranchers, fishers and related fishing workers, and an­
nouncers. Changes in technology or business practices will
reduce the demand for most of the 30 occupations.
Advances in computer, optical scanning, and voice recog­
nition technologies and growth in electronic business will re­
duce demand for word processors and typists; stock clerks
and order fillers; secretaries, except legal, medical, and execu­
tive; telephone operators; postal service mail sorters, proces­
sors, and processing machine operators; loan interviewers and
clerks; data entry keyers; order clerks; and other office and
administrative support occupations.8 Advances in technol­
ogy, such as faster machines and more automated processes,
and a shift of assembly and other production activities to
other countries will lower employment for electrical and elec­
tronic equipment assemblers, team assemblers, chemical plant
and systems operators, and mixing and blending machine
workers. Prepress technicians and workers also will be affected
as electronic publishing and printing-on-demand limit the pro­
duction o f printed material.
Employment in the textile and apparel industries will decline,
due to greater imports— as import quotas are lifted— and to
improved production technology. This will cause employment
declines for sewing machine operators; sewers, hand; and the
four textile machine operator occupations listed on table 5.
Farmers and ranchers will decline as market pressures cause
farm consolidation and as farm technology improves.
Em ploym ent o f travel agents should decline as more
travelers rely on the Internet to book travel. Telemarketers will
decrease as more people opt out of receiving calls and as
blocking technology improves. Door-to-door sales workers,
news and street vendors, and related workers will decline due
to competition from stores and on-line outlets. Radio and
television station consolidation and improved editing and
other off-air technologies are expected to lower employment
of announcers. Fishers and related workers are projected to
decline as the stock of fish decreases and the technology for
finding fish improves.

Thirteen of the 30 occupations with the largest numerical
declines were in the m oderate-term on-the-job training
category, 11 were in the short-term category, and none were in
a degree category. Of the largest declines, 9 are in the second
earnings quartile, and 16 are in the third earnings quartile.

Total jo b openings
In addition to occupational employment growth, another as­
pect of the demand for workers is the need to replace those
who leave their jobs to enter other occupations, retire, or leave
the labor force for other reasons. Job openings resulting from
replacement needs are very important because, in most occu­
pations, they exceed those resulting from employment growth.
Even occupations that are projected to decline provide some
job openings— for example, farmers and ranchers and aero­
space engineers. (See table 2.)
The measure of replacement needs is complex because of
the continuous movement of workers into and out of occupa­
tions. The replacement needs cited in this article are based on
the net change in employment (entrants minus separations) in
each age cohort over the projection period. Although this
measure understates the total number of job openings in an
occupation, it best represents the job openings for new labor
force entrants over the projection period.9
Over the 2002-12 period, more job openings are expected
to result from replacement needs (35 million) than from em ­
ployment growth in the economy (21.3 million). Service occu­
pations are projected to have the most total job openings, 13
million. The number of job openings due to net replacement
needs should exceed the num ber due to growth in major
groups with average or below-average projected growth, as
well as those among service occupations, which includes
many occupations with high turnover. Food preparation and
serving occupations have particularly high replacement needs.
However, healthcare support occupations should have only
half as many replacement openings as growth openings.
The only major group with fewer openings from replace­
ment needs than from employment growth is professional and
related occupations, the fastest growing. Even within this
group, however, replacement openings exceed growth open­
ings in three subgroups— architecture and engineering; life,
physical, and social scientists; and arts, design, entertainment,
sports, and media occupations.
□

Notes
1 O ccupational projections presented in this article provide
information to those interested in labor market issues. They also
provide the background for an alyses o f future em ploym ent
opportunities described in the forthcoming 2004-05 Occupational
Outlook Handbook. The Internet version o f this edition o f the
Handbook, which will be accessible at http://w w w .bls.gov/oco/, is
expected to be available in late February 2004; the print version of

104

Monthly Labor Review


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February 2004

the 2004-05 Handbook, BLS Bulletin 2570, should be available in
Spring 2004. Job outlook information in the 2004-05 Handbook
w ill use the projections presented in each o f the articles in this
issu e o f the Monthly Labor Review. For a description o f the
m ethodology used to develop em ployment projections, see BLS
Handbook o f Methods, Bulletin 2490 (Bureau of Labor Statistics,
April 1997), pp. 122-29.

2 Occupational data reflect the 2000 Standard Occupational
Classification system. Base year employment data were developed
using the 2002 Occupational Employment Statistics Survey,
supplemented with data from the Current Population Survey for selfemployed and unpaid family workers.
3 The Bureau has recently shifted to the 2002 North American
Industry Classification System (NAICS). Industry data in this article
reflect this shift. The NAICS classification will also be used in an article
on high technology in a forthcoming issue of the Review. The article
w ill update High-technology employment: a broader view, which
appeared in the June 1999 Review.
4 Previous occupational projections articles in the Review included
State and local government education employment and hospital
employment in the education services and health services industries,
respectively. This article includes them with government— as do
industry output and employment projections articles in this and earlier
issues of the Review.
5 Ibid.
6 Daniel E. Hecker, “Employment impact of electronic business,”
Monthly Labor Review, May 2001, p. 5.


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7 Education and training categories listed in tables 3, 4, and 5
show the category that best describes the education or training
needed by most workers to become fully qualified. However, for
many occupations there are other sources of education and training,
as well. Data from the Bureau’s Current Population Survey show
that for most occupations, workers have a variety o f education
levels. More detail on education and training is available in the
Occupational Outlook Handbook ; more on education and training
categories is available in Occupational Projections and Training
Data, Bulletin 2572 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, forthcom ing).
A lso, see footnote 1.
8 Hecker, “Employment im pact...”
9 Net separations do not count all movements of workers out of an
occupation, which is a measure termed total separations. For example,
an opening caused by a worker who stops working for a period and
then gets another job in his or her previous occupation would be
counted in the measure of total separations but not net separations.
See the discussion on the uses o f replacement needs information
developed in Occupational Projections and Training Data, Bulletin
2572 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, forthcoming).

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

105

Trade and the city
International trade is m ost often ac­
counted for in national terms. There are
some data available on exports from
specific metropolitan areas and there
have been occasional efforts to allocate
imports regionally, generally at a very
broad level o f geographic detail. In the
fourth quarter 2003 issue of the Federal
Reserve Bank of Chicago’s Economic
Perspective, W illiam Testa, Thomas
Klier, and Alexei Zelnev seek to measure
the degree of international import and
export com petition faced by m anu­
facturers in the largest American cities.
T heir crudest m easure o f im port
competition is total imports attributed to
the metropolitan area as a percent of their
estimate of gross metropolitan product.
Using this metric, the Detroit-Ann ArborFlint area has the highest level of import
competition at 19 percent, WashingtonBaltimore the lowest at 2.1 percent, while
Cleveland-Akron and San Diego straddle
the average of about 9.5 percent.
Another measure— import penetra­
tion— is a more specific way to reflect
the com petition faced by an a re a ’s
m a n u fa c tu rin g in d u strie s. A s the
authors describe the concept, “Import
penetration measures the ratio of imports
for a particular industry to the sum of
imports plus that portion of domestic
production that is not exported abroad.
... [T]his measure of import penetration
shows the share of domestic sales of a
good th a t is im p o rted ra th e r than
domestically produced.”
When the measure of import pene­
tration is aggregated across all local
manufacturing industries, the m etro­
politan areas facing the highest import
p e n e tra tio n are S an D ieg o , San
Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, BostonW orcester-L aw rence, and PortlandSalem. Facing the lowest penetration
are Kansas City, Washington-Baltimore,
Atlanta, and Sacramento-Yolo.
Testa and his colleagues also pro­
vide a measure of export intensity—
exports as a percent of gross m etro­
politan p roduct. The m ost ex p o rt
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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

intensive metropolitan areas are SeattleTacoma-Bremerton, Detroit-Ann ArborFlint, and Miami-Ft. Lauderdale. The
le a st ex p o rt in ten siv e areas w ere
D enver-B oulder, K ansas City, and
Washington-Baltimore.

Europe’s shorter work
years
Workers in France and Germany work
fewer hours in a year than do Ameri­
cans— the equivalent of 6 to 9 regular
workweeks fewer, according to Inter­
national Labor Organization figures
cited by Douglas Clement, editor of the
Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis
quarterly, The Region. Writing in the
December 2003 issue, Clement outlines
the somewhat controversial explanation
o f th is p h e n o m en o n o ffered by
Professor Edward C. Prescott of Arizona
State University (and a senior monetary
advisor to the Minneapolis Fed).
While many analysts look to cultural
and legal difference between the United
States and Europe (see the August 2003
issue’s Precis for an example of the
latter), Prescott believes that European
workers are simply responding to a
different set of economic incentives
than are A m ericans. Clem ent cites
Prescott: “French, Japanese, and U.S.
workers all have similar preferences.
The French are not better at enjoying
leisure. The Japanese are not compul­
sive savers.” The reason the average
French worker spends about 6 weeks
fewer at work than does the average
American instead comes down to the
fact that the tax system in France, and
many other European countries, drives
a much larger wedge between what a
worker earns and what that worker gets
to keep after taxes.
Prescott’s work has highlighted the
importance of understanding the relative
prices o f consum ption and leisure,
continues Clement. That set of relative
prices is determined by the tax rate on
consum ption— sales taxes, excises,

February 2004

property taxes, and so forth,— and the
taxes on labor— income taxes, social
Insurance taxes, and the like. While
none of this seems particularly contro­
versial, Prescott’s introduction of the
co n c e p ts in to a sta n d a rd g ro w th
accounting model has attracted some
skeptics. Although the results of the
model seem to produce a fairly good
representation of reality— predicted
hours worked per week were very close
for Germany and the United Kingdom, a
little low for the N orth A m erican
economies, and a bit high for others—
C lem ent cites P eter L indert o f the
University of California at Davis as
seeing the work as “a theoretical model,
heavily laden with assum ptions. ...
educated, intelligent, plausible fiction.”
On the other hand, Clement sum­
marizes the results of an econometric
study by labor economists Steven Davis
(University of Chicago) and Magnus
H en rek so n (S to ck h o lm S chool o f
Econom ics) that found that a 12.8percentage point difference in tax rates
results in 122 fewer hours supplied per
worker and about a 5-percentage point
decrease in the employment to popu­
lation ratio.

Human capital
on the hoof
As we pointed out in our October 2003
Précis of work by Paul D. Gottlieb and
Michael Fogarty, retaining or attracting
college graduates to an area can have a
positive impact on average per capita
income for that area. Thus, the recent
examination in the Federal Reserve Bank
of Cleveland’s Economic Trends of the
migration patterns of college graduates
may be of interest. As it turns out, the
highest State retention rates in 2001 of
graduates in the Class of 2000 were in
Idaho, Maine, Texas, California, and
New Jersey. The lowest retention rates
were in D elaw are, Vermont, Rhode
Island, North Dakota, and Iowa.
□

Publications Received

Economic and social statistics
Access to Money Income in the United States:
2002 Annual Demographic Supplement
to the Current Population Survey on
the C haracteristics and Incom es o f
Americans. Ithaca, NY, New Strate­

gist P ublications, 2003, 400 pp.,
$89.95/softcover.
Access to Poverty in the United States: 2002
Annual D em ographic Supplement to
the Current Population Survey on the
Poverty Status, Health Insurance Cov­
erage, and Pension Plan Participation
o f Americans. Ithaca, NY, New Strat­

egist Publications, 2003, 400 pp.,
$89.95/softcover.
Angrist, Joshua D., Treatment Effect Hetero­
geneity in Theory and Practice. Cam­
bridge, MA, National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc., 2003, 39 pp. (Working
Paper 9708) $10 per copy, plus $10 for
postage and handling outside the United
States.
Hunt, Jennifer, Teen Births Keep American
Crime High. Cambridge, MA, National
Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 2003,
42 pp. (Working Paper 9632) $10 per
copy, plus $10 for postage and handling
outside the United States.
Lichtenberg, Frank R., The Impact o f New
Drug Launches on Longevity: Evidence
from Longitudinal, Disease-Level Data
from 52 Countries, 1982-2001 . Cam­

bridge, MA, National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc., 2003, 37 pp. (Working
Paper 9754) $10 per copy, plus $10 for
postage and handling outside the United
States.

Economic growth
and development
Auer, Peter and Sandrine Cazes, eds., Em­
ployment Stability in an Age o f Flexibility:
Evidence from Industrialized Countries.

Geneva, International Labour Office,
2003, 300 pp., $22.95/paperback.
Berry, Steven and Joel Waldfogel, Product
Quality and M arket Size. Cambridge,
MA, National Bureau of Economic Re­
search, Inc., 2003, 36 pp. (Working
Paper 9675) $10 per copy, plus $10
for postage and handling outside the
United States.
Block, Richard N., Karen Roberts, and R.
Oliver Clarke, Labor Standards in the
United States and Canada.


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Kalamazoo, MI, W.E. Upjohn Institute,
2003, 176 pp., $18/paperback.
Blyth, Mark, Great Transformations: Eco­
nomic Ideas and Institutional Change in
the Twentieth Century. New York, Cam­

bridge University Press, 2002, 284 pp.,
$22/paperback.
Gittleman, Maury, Thijs ten Raa, and Ed
ward N. Wolff, The Vintage Effect in TFP
Growth: An Analysis o f the Age Structure
o f Capital. Cambridge, MA, National

Bureau of Economic Research, Inc., 2003,
27 pp. (Working Paper 9768) $10 per
copy, plus $10 for postage and handling
outside the United States.
Guthrie, Doug, Dragon in a Three-Piece Suit.
Princeton, NJ, Princeton University Press,
2002, 302 pp., $22.95/paperback.
Ogawa, Kazuo, Financial Distress and Em­
ployment: The Japanese Case in the 90s.

Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of Eco­
nomic Research, Inc., 2003,28 pp. (Work­
ing Paper 9646) $10 per copy, plus $10
for postage and handling outside the
United States.

Education
Dowrick, Steve, Ideas and Education: Level
or Growth Effects?. Cambridge, MA, Na­
tional Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
2003, 30 pp. (Working Paper 9709) $10
per copy, plus $10 for postage and han­
dling outside the United States.
Lach, Saul and Mark Schankerman, Incen­
tives and Invention in Universities. Cam­
bridge, MA, National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc., 2003, 42 pp. (Working
Paper 9727) $10 per copy, plus $10 for
postage and handling outside the United
States.
Poliak, Robert A. and Donna K. Ginther, Does
Family Structure Affect Children’s Edu­
cational Outcomes? Cambridge, MA,

National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., 2003,48 pp. (Working Paper 9628)
$10 per copy, plus $10 for postage and
handling outside the United States.

Industrial relations

At-W ill Bathroom-Break Regulation.

Iowa City, Fanpihua Press, 2003,382 pp.,
paperback.
Weil, David, Individual Rights and Collec­
tive Agents: The Role o f Old and New
Workplace Institutions in the Regulation
o f Labor Markets? Cambridge, MA, Na­

tional Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
2003, 47 pp. (Working Paper 9565) $10
per copy, plus $10 for postage and han­
dling outside the United States.
Witwer, David, Corruption and Reform in
the Teamsters Union. Champaign, IL,
University of Illinois Press, 2003,
298 pp., $39.95/cloth.

Industry and
government organization
Botero, Juan, Simeon Djankov, Rafael La
Porta, Florencio Lopez-de-Silanes, and
Andrei Shliefer, The Regulation o f Labor.
Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of Eco­
nomic Research, Inc., 2003,60 pp. (Work­
ing Paper 9756) $10 per copy, plus $10
for postage and handling outside the
United States.
Greenstein, Shane and Michael Mazzeo,
Differentiation Strategy and Market De­
regulation: Local Telecommunication En­
try in the Late 1990s. Cambridge, MA,

National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., 2003,32 pp. (Working Paper 9761)
$10 per copy, plus $10 for postage and
handling outside the United States.
Trajtenberg, Manuel, Defense R&D Policy
in the Anti-Terrorist Era. Cambridge, MA,
National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., 2003, 44 pp. (Working Paper 9725)
$10 per copy, plus $10 for postage and
handling outside the United States.

International economics
Brown, Drusilla K., Alan V. Deardorff, and
Robert M. Stem, The Effects o f Multina­
tional Production on Wages and Working
Conditions in Developing Countries.

Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of Eco­
nomic Research, Inc., 2003,58 pp. (Work­
ing Paper 9669) $10 per copy, plus $10
for postage and handling outside the
United States.

Block, Richard N., ed., Bargaining fo r Com­
petitiveness: Law, Research, and Case
Studies. Kalamazoo, MI, W.E. Upjohn

Labor and economic history

Institute for Employment Research,
2003,186 pp., $40/cloth; $15/paperback.

Ryan, Christopher K., Harry Gunnison

Linder, Marc, Void Where Prohibited Revis­

Blackwell Publishing, 2002, 270 pp.,
$34.95/paperback.

ited: The Trickle-Down Effect ofOSHA’s

Brown: An Orthodox Economist and
H is C o n trib u tio n s. M alden, MA,

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

107

Publications Received

Kim, Sukkoo and Robert A. Margo, Histori­

Rajan, Raghuram G and Julie Wulf, The Flat­

cal Perspectives on U.S. Econom ic
Growth. Cambridge, MA, National Bu­

tening Firm: Evidence from Panel Data
on the Changing Nature o f Corporate Hi­
erarchies. Cambridge, MA, National Bu­

reau of Economic Research, Inc., 2003,
61 pp. (Working Paper 9594) $10 per
copy, plus $10 for postage and handling
outside the United States.

reau of Economic Research, Inc., 2003,
53 pp. (Working Paper 9633) $10 per
copy, plus $10 for postage and handling
outside the United States.

Labor force
Bernstein, Jared and Dean Baker, The Ben­
efits o f Full Employment: When Markets
Work fo r People. Washington, DC, Eco­

nomic Policy Institute, 2003, 112 pp.,
paperback.
Borjas, George J., The Labor Demand Curve
Is Downward Sloping: Reexamining the
Impact o f Immigration on the Labor Mar­
ket. Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of

Economic Research, Inc., 2003, 54 pp.
(Working Paper 9755) $ 10 per copy, plus
$ 10 for postage and handling outside the
United States.
Farber, Henry S., Is Tomorrow Another Day?
The Labor Supply o f New York Cab Driv­
ers. Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of

Economic Research, Inc., 2003, 41 pp.
(Working Paper 9706) $ 10 per copy, plus
$ 10 for postage and handling outside the
United States.
Farber, Henry S., Job Loss in the United
States, 1981-2001. Cambridge, MA, Na­
tional Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
2003, 41 pp. (Working Paper 9707) $10
per copy, plus $10 for postage and han­
dling outside the United States.

Labor organizations
Wheeler, Hoyt N., The Future o f the Amer­
ican Labor Movement. New York, Cam­
bridge University Press, 2002, 257 pp.,
$23/paperback.

Managem ent and organization
theory
Alkhafaji, Abbass F., Strategic Management:
Formulation, Implementation, and Con­
trol in a Dynamic Environment. New

York, The Haworth Press, 2003,317 pp.,
paperback.
Black, Sandra E., Lisa M. Lynch, and Anya
Krivelyova, How Workers Fare When
Employers Innovate. Cambridge, MA,
National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., 2003,38 pp. (Working Paper 9569)
$10 per copy, plus $10 for postage and
handling outside the United States.

108

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Prices and living conditions
Adams, Scott and David Neumark, Living
Wage Effects: New and Improved Evi­
dence. Cambridge, MA, National Bureau

of Eco-nomic Research, Inc., 2003,44 pp.
(Work-ing Paper 9702) $10 per copy,
plus $10 for postage and handling out­
side the United States.

Social institutions and
social change
Darboe, Kebba, An Empirical Study o f the
Social Correlates o f Job Satisfaction
among Plant Science Graduates o f a Mid­
western University: A Test o f Victor H.
Vroom’s (1964) Expectancy Theory.

Lanham, MD, University Press of
America, 2003,140 pp., $27/paperback.
Ermisch, John F., An Economic Analysis o f
the Family. Princeton, NJ, Princeton Uni­
versity Press, 2003, 271 pp., $35/hardcover.
Moe, Karine S., ed., Women, Family, and
Work. Malden, MA, Blackwell Publish­
ing, 2003, 239 pp., $34.95/paperback.

Wolfers, Justin, Is Business Cycle Volatility
Costly? Evidence from Surveys o f Sub­
jective Well-being. Cambridge, MA, Na­

Urban affairs

tional Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.,
2003, 26 pp. (Working Paper 9619) $10
per copy, plus $10 for postage and han­
dling outside the United States.

Bright, Elise M., Reviving America’s For­

Productivity and technological
change
Bai, Chong-En and Chi-Wa Yuen, eds., Tech­
nology and the New Economy. Cambridge,
MA, The MIT Press, 2003, 312 pp.,
$32.95/cloth.
Gronau, Reuben and Daniel S. Hamermesh,
Time vs. Goods: The Value o f Measuring
Household Production Technologies.

gotten Neighborhoods: An Investigation
o f Inner City Revitalization Efforts. New

York, Routledge, 2003, 203 pp., $21.95/
softcover.

Wages and compensation
Farber, Henry S., Nonunion Wage Rates and
the Threat o f Unionization. Cambridge,
MA, National Bureau of Economic Re­
search, Inc., 2003, 31 pp. (Working Pa­
per 9705) $10 per copy, plus $10 for
postage and handling outside the United
States.

Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of Eco­
nomic Research, Inc., 2003,24 pp. (Work­
ing Paper 9650) $10 per copy, plus $10
for postage and handling outside the
United States.

Gerhart, Barry and Sara L. Rynes, Compen­

Hall, Bronwyn H., Stuart J. H. Graham,
Dietmar Harhoff, and David C. Mowery,

Goldman, DanaP., Neeraj Sood, and Arleen
A. Leibowitz, The Reallocation o f Com­

Prospects fo r Improving U.S. Patent
Quality Via Post-Grant Opposition. Cam­

pensation in Response to Health Insur­
ance Premium Increases. Cambridge, MA,

bridge, MA, National Bureau of Economic
Research, Inc., 2003, 24 pp. (Working
Paper 9731) $10 per copy, plus $10 for
postage and handling outside the United
States.

National Bureau of Economic Research,
Inc., 2003,17 pp. (Working Paper 9540)
$10 per copy, plus $10 for postage and
handling outside the United States.

sation: Theory, Evidence, and Strategic
Implications. Thousand Oaks, CA, Sage

Publications, 2003, 310 pp., $56/hardcover; $39..95/softcover.

Wang, Jiann-Chyuan and Kuen-Hung Tsai,

Simon, Kosali Ilayperuma and Robert Kaestner, Do Minimum Wages Affect Non-Wage

Productivity Growth and R&D Expendi­
ture in Taiwan’s Manufacturing Firms.

Job Attributes? Evidence on Fringe Ben­
efits and Working Conditions. Cambridge,

Cambridge, MA, National Bureau of Eco­
nomic Research, Inc., 2003,23 pp. (Work­
ing Paper 9724) $10 per copy, plus $10
for postage and handling outside the
United States.

MA,

February 2004

National Bureau of Economic Re­
search, Inc., 2003, 34 pp. (Working Pa­
per 9688) $10 per copy, plus $10 for
postage and handling outside the United
States.
□

Notes on labor statistics

...............

. 110

Labor compensation and collective
bargaining data—continued

Comparative indicators
1. Labor market indicators..............................................
2. Annual and quarterly percent changes in
compensation, prices, and productivity.................
3. Alternative measures of wages and
compensation changes.............................................

122
123
123

124
125
126
126
127
127
128
128
129
132
133
135
135
136
137
138

153
154

32. Consumer Price Index: U.S. city average, by expenditure
category and commodity and service groups............... 155
33. Consumer Price Index: U.S. city average and
local data, all items........................................................ 158
34. Annual data: Consumer Price Index, all items
and major groups.......................................................... 159
35. Producer Price Indexes by stage of processing................ 160
36. Producer Price Indexes for the net output of major
industry groups............................................................161
37. Annual data: Producer Price Indexes
by stage of processing.................................................. 162
38. U.S. export price indexes by Standard International
Trade Classification..................................................... 162
39. U.S. import price indexes by Standard International
Trade Classification..................................................... 163
40. U.S. export price indexes by end-use category................ 164
41. U.S. import price indexes by end-use category............... 164
42. U.S. international price indexes for selected
categories of services.................................................... 164

Productivity data
43. Indexes of productivity, hourly compensation,
and unit costs, data seasonally adjusted......................
44. Annual indexes of multifactor productivity.....................
45. Annual indexes of productivity, hourly compensation,
unit costs, and prices...................................................
46. Annual indexes of output per hour for select
industries......................................................................

165
166
167
168

139
140
144
144
145

Labor compensation and collective
bargaining data
25. Employment Cost Index, compensation,
by occupation and industry group............................... 146
26. Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries,
by occupation and industry group............................... 148
27. Employment Cost Index, benefits, private industry....... 150


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151
152

Price data

Labor force data
4. Employment status of the population,
seasonally adjusted.................................................
5. Selected employment indicators,
seasonally adjusted.................................................
6. Selected unemployment indicators,
seasonally adjusted.................................................
7. Duration of unemployment,
seasonally adjusted.................................................
8. Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment,
seasonally adjusted.................................................
9. Unemployment rates by sex and age,
seasonally adjusted.................................................
10. Unemployment rates by States,
seasonally adjusted.................................................
11. Employment of workers by States,
seasonally adjusted.................................................
12. Employment of workers by industry,
seasonally adjusted.................................................
13. Average weekly hours by industry,
seasonally adjusted.................................................
14. Average hourly earnings by industry,
seasonally adjusted..................................................
15. Average hourly earnings by industry..........................
16. Average weekly earnings by industry.........................
17. Diffusion indexes of employment change,
seasonally adjusted.................................................
18. Establishment size and employment covered under ui,
private ownership, by naics supersector...............
19. Annual data establishment, employment, and wages,
covered under ui and ucfe, by ownership..............
20. Annual data: Establishments, employment,
and wages covered under ui and ucfe, by State.....
21. Annual data: Employment and average annual pay of
ui- and uCFE-covered workers, by largest counties ..
22. Annual data: Employment status of the population ...
23. Annual data: Employment levels by industry............
24. Annual data: Average hours and earnings level,
by industry............................................................

28. Employment Cost Index, private nonfarm workers,
by bargaining status, region, and area size...................
29. Participants in benefit plans, medium and large firms.....
30. Participants in benefits plans, small firms
and government................................................................
31. Work stoppages involving 1,000 workers or m ore..........

International comparisons data
47. Unemployment rates in nine countries,
data seasonally adjusted............................................... 171
48. Annual data: Employment status of the civilian
working-age population, 10 countries.......................... 172
49. Annual indexes of productivity and related measures,
12 countries.................................................................. 173

Injury and illness data
50. Annual data: Occupational injury and illness
incidence rates.............................................................. 174
51. Fatal occupational injuries by event
or exposure....................................................................... 176

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

109

Notes on Current Labor Statistics

This section of the Review presents the prin­
cipal statistical series collected and calcu­
lated by the Bureau of Labor Statistics:
series on labor force; employment; unem­
ployment; labor compensation; consumer,
producer, and international prices; produc­
tivity; international comparisons; and injury
and illness statistics. In the notes that fol­
low, the data in each group of tables are
briefly described; key definitions are given;
notes on the data are set forth; and sources
of additional information are cited.

G e n e r a l n o tes
The following notes apply to several tables
in this section:
Seasonal adjustm ent. Certain monthly
and quarterly data are adjusted to eliminate
the effect on the data of such factors as cli­
matic conditions, industry production
schedules, opening and closing of schools,
holiday buying periods, and vacation prac­
tices, which might prevent short-term evalu­
ation of the statistical series. Tables con­
taining data that have been adjusted are iden­
tified as “seasonally adjusted.” (All other
data are not seasonally adjusted.) Seasonal
effects are estimated on the basis of current
and past experiences. When new seasonal
factors are computed each year, revisions
may affect seasonally adjusted data for sev­
eral preceding years.
Seasonally adjusted data appear in tables
1-14, 16-17, 43, and 47. Seasonally ad­
justed labor force data in tables 1 and 4-9
were revised in the February 2004 issue of
the Review. Seasonally adjusted establish­
ment survey data shown in tables 1, 12-14
and 16-17 were revised in the July 2003
Review. A brief explanation of the seasonal
adjustment methodology appears in “Notes
on the data.”
Revisions in the productivity data in
table 49 are usually introduced in the Sep­
tember issue. Seasonally adjusted indexes
and percent changes from month-to-month
and quarter-to-quarter are published for nu­
merous Consumer and Producer Price Index
series. However, seasonally adjusted in­
dexes are not published for the U.S. average
All-Items CPI. Only seasonally adjusted per­
cent changes are available for this series.
A djustm ents for price changes. Some
data—such as the “real” earnings shown in
table 14— are adjusted to eliminate the ef­
fect of changes in price. These adjustments
are made by dividing current-dollar values
by the Consumer Price Index or the appro­
priate component of the index, then multi­
plying by 100. For example, given a current
hourly wage rate of $3 and a current price
110

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index number of 150, where 1982 = 100, the
hourly rate expressed in 1982 dollars is $2
($3/150 x 100 = $2). The $2 (or any other
resulting values) are described as “real,”
“constant,” or “ 1982” dollars.

tional comparisons data, see International
Comparisons o f Unemployment, BLS Bulle­
tin 1979.
Detailed data on the occupational injury
and illness series are published in Occupa­

Sources of inform ation

tional Injuries and Illnesses in the United
States, by Industry, a BLS annual bulletin.
Finally, the Monthly Labor Review car­

Data that supplement the tables in this sec­
tion are published by the Bureau in a variety
of sources. Definitions of each series and
notes on the data are contained in later sec­
tions of these Notes describing each set of
data. For detailed descriptions of each data
series, see b l s Handbook o f Methods, Bul­
letin 2490. Users also may wish to consult
Major Programs o f the Bureau o f Labor Sta­
tistics, Report 919. News releases provide

the latest statistical information published
by the Bureau; the major recurring releases
are published according to the schedule ap­
pearing on the back cover of this issue.
More information about labor force, em­
ployment, and unemployment data and the
household and establishment surveys under­
lying the data are available in the Bureau’s
monthly publication, Em ploym ent and
Earnings. Historical unadjusted and season­
ally adjusted data from the household sur­
vey are available on the Internet:
http 'J fy / ww.bls.gov/cps/

Historically comparable unadjusted and sea­
sonally adjusted data from the establishment
survey also are available on the Internet:
http ://ww w.bls.gov/ces/

Additional information on labor force data
for areas below the national level are pro­
vided in the bls annual report, Geographic
Profile o f Employment and Unemployment.

For a comprehensive discussion of the
Employment Cost Index, see Employment
Cost Indexes and Levels, 1975-95, BLS Bul­
letin 2466. The most recent data from the
Employee Benefits Survey appear in the fol­
lowing Bureau of Labor Statistics bulletins:
Employee Benefits in Medium and Large
Firms; Employee Benefits in Small Private
Establishments; and Employee Benefits in
State and Local Governments.

More detailed data on consumer and pro­
ducer prices are published in the monthly
periodicals, The C P I Detailed Report and
Producer Price Indexes. For an overview of
the 1998 revision of the CPI, see the Decem­
ber 1996 issue of the Monthly Labor Re­
view. Additional data on international prices
appear in monthly news releases.
Listings of industries for which produc­
tivity indexes are available may be found on
the Internet:
http ^/www.bls.gov/lpc/

For additional information on interna­

February 2004

ries analytical articles on annual and longer
term developments in labor force, employ­
ment, and unemployment; employee com­
pensation and collective bargaining; prices;
productivity; international comparisons;
and injury and illness data.

S ym bols
n.e.c. = not elsewhere classified,
n.e.s. = not elsewhere specified.
p = preliminary. To increase the time­
liness of some series, preliminary
figures are issued based on repre­
sentative but incomplete returns,
r = revised. Generally, this revision
reflects the availability of later
data, but also may reflect other ad­
justments.

Comparative Indicators
(Tables 1-3)
Comparative indicators tables provide an
overview and comparison of major BLS sta­
tistical series. Consequently, although many
of the included series are available monthly,
all measures in these comparative tables are
presented quarterly and annually.
Labor m arket indicators include em­
ployment measures from two major surveys
and information on rates of change in com­
pensation provided by the Employment
Cost Index (ECi) program. The labor force
participation rate, the employment-popu­
lation ratio, and unemployment rates for ma­
jor demographic groups based on the Cur­
rent Population (“household”) Survey are
presented, while measures of employment
and average weekly hours by major indus­
try sector are given using nonfarm payroll
data. The Employment Cost Index (com­
pensation), by major sector and by bargain­
ing status, is chosen from a variety of bls
compensation and wage measures because it
provides a comprehensive measure of em­
ployer costs for hiring labor, not just out­
lays for wages, and it is not affected by em­
ployment shifts among occupations and in­
dustries.
Data on c h a n g es in c o m p en sa tio n ,

prices, and productivity are presented in

table 2. Measures of rates of change of com­
pensation and wages from the Employment
Cost Index program are provided for all ci­
vilian nonfarm workers (excluding Federal
and household workers) and for all private
nonfarm workers. Measures of changes in
consumer prices for all urban consumers;
producer prices by stage of processing; over­
all prices by stage of processing; and overall
export and import price indexes are given.
Measures of productivity (output per hour
of all persons) are provided for major sec­
tors.
A ltern a tiv e m easu res o f w age and
com pensation rates o f change, which re­

flect the overall trend in labor costs, are sum­
marized in table 3. Differences in concepts
and scope, related to the specific purposes
of the series,
contribute to the variation in changes among
the individual measures.

Notes on the data
Definitions of each series and notes on the
data are contained in later sections of these
notes describing each set of data.

Employment and
Unemployment Data
(Tables 1; 4-24)

H ousehold survey d a ta
Description of the series
E mployment data in this section are ob­

tained from the Current Population Survey,
a program of personal interviews conducted
monthly by the Bureau of the Census for
the Bureau of Labor Statistics. The sample
consists of about 60,000 households selected
to represent the U.S. population 16 years of
age and older. Households are interviewed
on a rotating basis, so that three-fourths of
the sample is the same for any 2 consecutive
months.

Definitions
E m ployed persons include (1) all those
who worked for pay any time during the
week which includes the 12th day of the
month or who worked unpaid for 15 hours
or more in a family-operated enterprise
and (2) those who were temporarily ab­
sent from their regular jobs because of ill­
ness, vacation, industrial dispute, or simi­
lar reasons. A person working at more than
one job is counted only in the job at which
he or she worked the greatest number of
hours.
U n em p loyed p erson s are those who


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did not work during the survey week, but
were available for work except for tempo­
rary illness and had looked for jobs within
the preceding 4 weeks. Persons who did not
look for work because they were on layoff
are also counted among the unemployed.
T he un em p loym en t rate represents the
number unemployed as a percent of the ci­
vilian labor force.
The civilian labor force consists of all
employed or unemployed persons in the
civilian noninstitutional population. Persons
n o t in th e la b o r fo r c e are those not
classified as employed or unemployed. This
group includes discouraged workers, defined
as persons who want and are available for a
job and who have looked for work sometime
in the past 12 months (or since the end of
their last job if they held one within the past
12 months), but are not currently looking,
because they believe there are no jobs
available or there are none for which they
would qualify. The civilian n on in stitu ­
tional population comprises all persons 16
years of age and older who are not inmates
of penal or mental institutions, sanitariums,
or homes for the aged, infirm, or needy. The
civilian labor force participation rate is
the proportion of the civilian nonin­
stitutional population that is in the labor
force. The em ploym ent-population ratio
is employment as a percent of the civilian
noninstitutional population.

Notes on the data
From time to time, and especially after a de­
cennial census, adjustments are made in the
Current Population Survey figures to correct
for estimating errors during the intercensal
years. These adjustments affect the compara­
bility of historical data. A description of these
adjustments and their effect on the various data
series appears in the Explanatory Notes of
E m ploym en t a n d E arn ings. For a discussion
of changes introduced in January 2003, see
“Revisions to the Current Population Survey
Effective in January 2003” in the February
2003 issue of E m p lo y m e n t a n d E a rn in g s
(available on the bls Web site at: http://
www.bls.gov/cps/rvcps03.pdf).

Effective in January 2003, bls began us­
ing the X-12 arima seasonal adjustment
program to seasonally adjust national labor
force data. This program replaced the X-11
arima program which had been used since
January 1980. See “Revision of Seasonally
Adjusted Labor Force Series in 2003,” in the
February 2003 issue of E m p lo y m e n t a n d
E a rn in g s (available on the bls Web site at
http:www.bls.gov/cps/cpsrs.pdf) for a dis­
cussion of the introduction of the use of X-

12 arima for seasonal adjustment o f the la­
bor force data and the effects that it had on
the data.

At the beginning of each calendar year,
historical seasonally adjusted data usually
are revised, and projected seasonal adjust­
ment factors are calculated for use during
the January-June period. The historical sea­
sonally adjusted data usually are revised for
only the most recent 5 years. In July, new
seasonal adjustment factors, which incorpo­
rate the experience through June, are pro­
duced for the July-December period, but no
revisions are made in the historical data.
F or additional information on na­
tional household survey data, contact the
Division of Labor Force Statistics: (202)
691-6378.

Establishm ent survey d a ta
Description of the series
Employment, hours , and earnings data

in this section are compiled from payroll
records reported monthly on a voluntary ba­
sis to the Bureau of Labor Statistics and its
cooperating State agencies by about 160,000
businesses and government agencies, which
represent approximately 400,000 individual
worksites and represent all industries except
agriculture. The active CES sample covers
approximately one-third of all nonfarm pay­
roll workers. Industries are classified in ac­
cordance with the 2002 North American In­
dustry Classification System. In most in­
dustries, the sampling probabilities are based
on the size of the establishment; most large
establishments are therefore in the sample.
(An establishment is not necessarily a firm;
it may be a branch plant, for example, or
warehouse.) Self-employed persons and
others not on a regular civilian payroll are
outside the scope of the survey because they
are excluded from establishment records.
This largely accounts for the difference in
employment figures between the household
and establishment surveys.

Definitions
An establishment is an economic unit which
produces goods or services (such as a factory
or store) at a single location and is engaged in
one type of economic activity.
Employed persons are all persons who
received pay (including holiday and sick pay)
for any part of the payroll period including the
12th day of the month. Persons holding more
than one job (about 5 percent of all persons in
the labor force) are counted in each establish­
ment which reports them.

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

111

Current Labor Statistics
Production workers in the goods-producing industries cover employees, up through
the level of working supervisors, who engage
directly in the manufacture or construction of
the establishment’s product. In private ser­
vice-providing industries, data are collected for
nonsupervisory workers, which include most
employees except those in executive, manage­
rial, and supervisory positions. Those work­
ers mentioned in tables 11-16 include produc­
tion workers in manufacturing and natural re­
sources and mining; construction workers in
construction; and nonsupervisory workers in
all private service-providing industries. Pro­
duction and nonsupervisory workers account
for about four-fifths of the total employment
on private nonagricultural payrolls.
Earnings are the payments production or
nonsupervisory workers receive during the
survey period, including premium pay for
overtime or late-shift work but excluding
irregular bonuses and other special
payments. R eal ea r n in g s are earnings
adjusted to reflect the effects of changes in
consumer prices. The deflator for this series
is derived from the Consumer Price Index
for Urban Wage Earners and Clerical Workers
(CPI-W).
Hours represent the average weekly hours

of production or nonsupervisory workers for
which pay was received, and are different from
standard or scheduled hours. Overtime hours
represent the portion of average weekly hours
which was in excess of regular hours and for
which overtime premiums were paid.
The Diffusion Index represents the per­
cent of industries in which employment was
rising over the indicated period, plus one-half
of the industries with unchanged employment;
50 percent indicates an equal balance between
industries with increasing and decreasing em­
ployment. In line with Bureau practice, data
for the 1-, 3-, and 6-month spans are season­
ally adjusted, while those for the 12-month
span are unadjusted. Table 17 provides an in­
dex on private nonfarm employment based on
278 industries, and a manufacturing index
based on 84 industries. These indexes are use­
ful for measuring the dispersion of economic
gains or losses and are also economic indica­
tors.

Notes on the data
Establishment survey data are annually ad­
justed to comprehensive counts of employ­
ment (called “benchmarks”). The March 2002
benchmark was introduced in June 2003 with
the release of data for May 2003, published in
the July 2003 issue of the Review. With the
release in June, CES completed a conversion
from the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)
system to the North American Industry Clas­
sification System (NAICS) and completed the
transition from its original quota sample de­

112

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sign to a probability-based sample design. The
industry-coding update included reconstruc­
tion of historical estimates in order to preserve
time series for data users. Normally 5 years of
seasonally adjusted data are revised with each
benchmark revision. However, with this re­
lease, the entire new time series history for all
ces data series were re-seasonally adjusted due
to the naics conversion, which resulted in the
revision of all CES time series.
Also in June 2003, the CES program intro­
duced concurrent seasonal adjustment for the
national establishment data. Under this meth­
odology, the first preliminary estimates for the
current reference month and the revised esti­
mates for the 2 prior months will be updated
with concurrent factors with each new release
of data. Concurrent seasonal adjustment in­
corporates all available data, including first pre­
liminary estimates for the most current month,
in the adjustment process. For additional in­
formation on all of the changes introduced in
June 2003, see the the June 2003 issue of Em­
ployment and Earnings and “Recent changes
in the national Current Employment Statistics
survey,” Monthly Labor Review, June 2003,
pp. 3-13.
Revisions in State data (table 11) occurred
with the publication of January 2003 data. For
information on the revisions for the State data,
see the March and May 2003 issues of Em­
ployment and Earnings, and “Recent changes
in the State and Metropolitan Area ces sur­
vey,” Monthly Labor Review, June 2003, pp.
14-19.
Beginning in June 1996, the BLS uses the
X-12-arima methodology to seasonally ad­
just establishment survey data. This proce­
dure, developed by the Bureau of the Census,
controls for the effect of varying survey inter­
vals (also known as the 4- versus 5-week ef­
fect), thereby providing improved measure­
ment of over-the-month changes and underly­
ing economic trends. Revisions of data, usually
for the most recent 5-year period, are made
once a year coincident with the benchmark re­
visions.
In the establishment survey, estimates for
the most recent 2 months are based on incom­
plete returns and are published as preliminary
in the tables (12-17 in the Review). When all
returns have been received, the estimates are
revised and published as “final” (prior to any
benchmark revisions) in the third month of
their appearance. Thus, December data are
published as preliminary in January and Feb­
ruary and as final in March. For the same rea­
sons, quarterly establishment data (table 1) are
preliminary for the first 2 months of publica­
tion and final in the third month. Thus, fourthquarter data are published as preliminary in
January and February and as final in March.
F or additional information on es­
tablishment survey data, contact the Division of

February 2004

Current Employment Statistics: (202) 691-6555.

U nem ploym ent d a ta by
S tate
Description of the series
Data presented in this section are obtained from
the Local Area Unemployment Statistics (LAUS)
program, which is conducted in cooperation with
State employment security agencies.
Monthly estimates of the labor force, em­
ployment, and unemployment for States and
sub-State areas are a key indicator of local eco­
nomic conditions, and form the basis for deter­
mining the eligibility of an area for benefits
under Federal economic assistance programs
such as the Job Training Partnership Act. Sea­
sonally adjusted unemployment rates are pre­
sented in table 10. Insofar as possible, the con­
cepts and definitions underlying these data are
those used in the national estimates obtained
from the cps.

Notes on the data
Data refer to State of residence. Monthly data
for all States and the District of Columbia are
derived using standardized procedures
established by bls. Once a year, estimates are
revised to new population controls, usually
with publication of January estimates, and
benchmarked to annual average CPS levels.
For additional information on data in
this series, call (202) 691-6392 (table 10) or
(202) 691-6559 (table 11).

C o v e r e d e m p lo y m e n t a n d
w a g e d a ta (ES-202)
Description of the series
E m p l o y m e n t , w a g e , a n d e s t a b l is h m e n t

in this section are derived from the
quarterly tax reports submitted to State
employment security agencies by pri­
vate and State and local government em­
ployers subject to State unemployment
insurance (ui) laws and from Federal,
agencies subject to the Unemployment
Compensation for Federal Employees
( u c f e ) program. Each quarter, State agen­
cies edit and process the data and send the
information to the Bureau of Labor Statistics.
The Covered Employment and Wages
data, also referred as ES-202 data, are the
most complete enumeration of employ­
ment and wage information by industry at
the national, State, metropolitan area, and
county levels. They have broad economic
significance in evaluating labor market
trends and major industry developments.

data

Definitions
In general, es -202 monthly employment data
represent the number of covered workers
who worked during, or received pay for, the
pay period that included the 12th day of the
month. Covered private industry em ploy­
m ent includes most corporate officials, ex­
ecutives, supervisory personnel, profession­
als, clerical workers, wage earners, piece
workers, and part-time workers. It excludes
proprietors, the unincorporated self-em­
ployed, unpaid family members, and certain
farm and domestic workers. Certain types
of nonprofit employers, such as religious
organizations, are given a choice of coverage
or exclusion in a number of States. Workers
in these organizations are, therefore, reported
to a limited degree.
Persons on paid sick leave, paid holiday,
paid vacation, and the like, are included. Per­
sons on the payroll of more than one firm dur­
ing the period are counted by each ui-subject
employer if they meet the employment defini­
tion noted earlier. The employment count ex­
cludes workers who earned no wages during
the entire applicable pay period because of
work stoppages, temporary layoffs, illness,
or unpaid vacations.
Federal em ploym ent data are based on
reports of monthly employment and quar­
terly wages submitted each quarter to State
agencies for all Federal installations with
employees covered by the Unemployment
Compensation for Federal Employees ( ucfe )
program, except for certain national secu­
rity agencies, which are omitted for security
reasons. Employment for all Federal agen­
cies for any given month is based on the
number of persons who worked during or
received pay for the pay period that included
the 12th of the month.
An establishment is an economic unit,
such as a farm, mine, factory, or store, that
produces goods or provides services. It is typi­
cally at a single physical location and engaged
in one, or predominantly one, type of eco­
nomic activity for which a single industrial clas­
sification may be applied. Occasionally, a single
physical location encompasses two or more
distinct and significant activities. Each activity
should be reported as a separate establishment
if separate records are kept and the various
activities are classified under different four­
digit sic codes.
Most employers have only one establish­
ment; thus, the establishment is the predomi­
nant reporting unit or statistical entity for re­
porting employment and wages data. Most
employers, including State and local govern­
ments who operate more than one establish­


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ment in a State, file a Multiple Worksite Re­
port each quarter, in addition to their quarterly
ui report. The Multiple Worksite Report is
used to collect separate employment and wage
data for each of the employer’s establishments,
which are not detailed on the ui report. Some
very small multi-establishment employers do
not file a Multiple Worksite Report. When the
total employment in an employer’s secondary
establishments (all establishments other than
the largest) is 10 or fewer, the employer gener­
ally will file a consolidated report for all estab­
lishments. Also, some employers either can­
not or will not report at the establishment level
and thus aggregate establishments into one con­
solidated unit, or possibly several units, though
not at the establishment level.
For the Federal Government, the report­
ing unit is the installation: a single location
at which a department, agency, or other gov­
ernment body has civilian employees. Fed­
eral agencies follow slightly different crite­
ria than do private employers when break­
ing down their reports by installation. They
are permitted to combine as a single state­
wide unit: 1) all installations with 10 or fewer
workers, and 2) all installations that have a
combined total in the State of fewer than 50
workers. Also, when there are fewer than 25
workers in all secondary installations in a State,
the secondary installations may be combined
and reported with the major installation. Last,
if a Federal agency has fewer than five em­
ployees in a State, the agency headquarters
office (regional office, district office) serving
each State may consolidate the employment
and wages data for that State with the data
reported to the State in which the headquarters
is located. As a result of these reporting rules,
the number of reporting units is always larger
than the number of employers (or government
agencies) but smaller than the number of actual
establishments (or installations).
Data reported for the first quarter are tabu­
lated into size categories ranging from worksites
of very small size to those with 1,000 employ­
ees or more. The size category is determined
by the establishment’s March employment
level. It is important to note that each estab­
lishment of a multi-establishment firm is tabu­
lated separately into the appropriate size cat­
egory. The total employment level of the re­
porting multi-establishment firm is not used in
the size tabulation.
Covered employers in most States report
total wages paid during the calendar quarter, re­
gardless of when the services were performed. A
few State laws, however, specify that wages be
reported for, or based on the period during which
services are performed rather than the period dur­
ing which compensation is paid. Under most State
laws or regulations, wages include bonuses, stock
options, the cash value of meals and lodging, tips

and other gratuities, and, in some States, em­
ployer contributions to certain deferred com­
pensation plans such as 401(k) plans.
Covered employer contributions for oldage, survivors, and disability insurance ( oasdi),
health insurance, unemployment insurance,
workers’ compensation, and private pension
and welfare funds are not reported as wages.
Employee contributions for the same purposes,
however, as well as money withheld for in­
come taxes, union dues, and so forth, are re­
ported even though they are deducted from
the worker’s gross pay.
Wages o f covered Federal workers rep­
resent the gross amount of all payrolls for all
pay periods ending within the quarter. This
includes cash allowances, the cash equivalent
of any type of remuneration, severance pay,
withholding taxes, and retirement deductions.
Federal employee remuneration generally cov­
ers the same types of services as for workers
in private industry.
Average annual wages per employee for
any given industry are computed by dividing
total annual wages by annual average employ­
ment. A further division by 52 yields average
weekly wages per employee. Annual pay data
only approximate annual earnings because an
individual may not be employed by the same
employer all year or may work for more than
one employer at a time.
Average weekly or annual pay is affected
by the ratio of full-time to part-time workers
as well as the number of individuals in highpaying and low-paying occupations. When
average pay levels between States and indus­
tries are compared, these factors should be
taken into consideration. For example, indus­
tries characterized by high proportions of parttime workers will show average wage levels
appreciably less than the weekly pay levels of
regular full-time employees in these industries.
The opposite effect characterizes industries
with low proportions of part-time workers, or
industries that typically schedule heavy week­
end and overtime work. Average wage data also
may be influenced by work stoppages, labor
turnover rates, retroactive payments, seasonal
factors, bonus payments, and so on.

Notes on the data
Beginning with the release of data for 2001, pub­
lications presenting data from the Covered Em­
ployment andWages (CEW)programhave switched
to the 2002 version of the NorthAmerican Indus­
try Classificatiion System (Naics) as the basis
for the assignment and tabulation of economic
data by industry, naics is the product of a
cooperative effort on the part of the statistical
agencies of the United States, Canada, and
Mexico. Due to difference in naics and Stan-

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

113

Current Labor Statistics

dard Industrial Classification (SIC) structures,
industry data for 2001 is not comparable to
the sic-based data for earlier years.
Effective January 2001, the CEWprogram
began assigning Indian Tribal Councils and re­
lated establishments to local government own­
ership. This bls action was in response to a
change in Federal law dealing with the way
Indian Tribes are treated under the Federal
Unemployment Tax Act. This law requires
federally recognized Indian Tribes to be treated
similarly to State and local governments. In
the past the cew program coded Indian Tribal
Councils and related establishments in the
private sector. As a result of the new law,
cew data reflects significant shifts in em­
ployment and wages between the private sec­
tor and local government from 2000 to 2001.
Data also reflect industry changes. Those
accounts previously assigned to civic and
social organizations were assigned to tribal
governments. There were no required indus­
try changes for related establishments owned
by these Tribal Councils. These tribal busi­
ness establishments continued to be coded ac­
cording to the economic activity of that entity.
To insure the highest possible quality of
data, State employment security agencies
verify with employers and update, if neces­
sary, the industry, location, and ownership clas­
sification of all establishments on a 3-year cycle.
Changes in establishment classification codes
resulting from the verification process are in­
troduced with the data reported for the first
quarter of the year. Changes resulting from
improved employer reporting also are intro­
duced in the first quarter. For these reasons,
some data, especially at more detailed geo­
graphic levels, may not be strictly comparable
with earlier years.
The2000 county data used to calculate the
2000-2001 changes were adjusted for changes
in industry and county classification to make
them comparable to data for 2001. As a result,
the adjusted 2000 data differ to some extent
from the data available on the Internet at:
http ://www.bls.gov/cew/home.htm.

County definitions are assigned according
to Federal Information Processing Standards
Publications as issued by the National Insti­
tute of Standards and Technology. Areas
shown as counties include those designated
as independent cities in some jurisdictions
and, in Alaska, those areas designated by the
Census Bureau where counties have not been
created. County data also are presented for
the New England States for comparative pur­
poses, even though townships are the more
common designation used in New England
114

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(and New Jersey).
For additional information on the cov­
ered employment and wage data, contact
the Division of Administrative Statistics
and Labor Turnover at (202) 691-6567.

Compensation and
Wage Data
(Tables 1-3; 25-31)
C ompensation and wage data are gath­

ered by the Bureau from business estab­
lishments, State and local governments,
labor unions, collective bargaining agree­
ments on file with the Bureau, and sec­
ondary sources.

E m p lo y m e n t C ost In d e x
Description of the series
The E m ploym ent C ost Index (ECI) is a
quarterly measure of the rate of change in
compensation per hour worked and includes
wages, salaries, and employer costs of em­
ployee benefits. It uses a fixed market
basket of labor—similar in concept to the
Consumer Price Index’s fixed market basket
of goods and services—to measure change
over time in employer costs of employing
labor.
Statistical series on total compensation
costs, on wages and salaries, and on ben­
efit costs are available for private nonfarm
workers excluding proprietors, the selfemployed, and household workers. The
total compensation costs and wages and
salaries series are also available for State
and local government workers and for the
civilian nonfarm economy, which consists
of private industry and State and local
government workers combined. Federal
workers are excluded.
The Employment Cost Index probabil­
ity sample consists of about 4,400 pri­
vate nonfarm establishments providing
about 23,000 occupational observations
and 1,000 State and local government es­
tablishments providing 6,000 occupational
observations selected to represent total
employment in each sector. On average,
each reporting unit provides wage and
compensation information on five wellspecified occupations. Data are collected
each quarter for the pay period including
the 12th day of March, June, September,
and December.
Beginning with June 1986 data, fixed

February 2004

employment weights from the 1980 Cen­
sus of Population are used each quarter to
calculate the civilian and private indexes
and the index for State and local govern­
ments. (Prior to June 1986, the employ­
ment weights are from the 1970 Census of
Population.) These fixed weights, also
used to derive all of the industry and oc­
cupation series indexes, ensure that
changes in these indexes reflect only
changes in compensation, not employment
shifts among industries or occupations
with different levels of wages and com­
pensation. For the bargaining status, re­
gion, and metropolitan/nonmetropolitan
area series, however, employment data by
industry and occupation are not available
from the census. Instead, the 1980 em­
ployment weights are reallocated within
these series each quarter based on the cur­
rent sample. Therefore, these indexes are
not strictly comparable to those for the
aggregate, industry, and occupation series.

Definitions
Total com p en sation costs include wages,

salaries, and the employer’s costs for em­
ployee benefits.
W ages and sa la ries consist of earn­
ings before payroll deductions, including
production bonuses, incentive earnings,
commissions, and cost-of-living adjust­
ments.
Benefits include the cost to employers
for paid leave, supplemental pay (includ­
ing nonproduction bonuses), insurance, re­
tirement and savings plans, and legally re­
quired benefits (such as Social Security,
workers’ compensation, and unemployment
insurance).
Excluded from wages and salaries and
employee benefits are such items as payment-in-kind, free room and board, and
tips.

Notes on the data
The Employment Cost Index for changes
in wages and salaries in the private non­
farm economy was published beginning in
1975. Changes in total com pensation
cost— wages and salaries and benefits
combined—were published beginning in
1980. The series of changes in wages and
salaries and for total compensation in the
State and local government sector and in
the civilian nonfarm economy (excluding
Federal employees) were published be-

ginning in 1981. H istorical indexes
(June 1981 = 100) are available on the
Internet:
http ://w ww .bls.gov/ect/
F or additional information on the

Employment Cost Index, contact the Of­
fice of Compensation Levels and Trends:
(202) 691-6199.

E m p lo yee Benefits Survey
Description of the series
Em ployee benefits data are obtained from

the Employee Benefits Survey, an annual
survey of the incidence and provisions of
selected benefits provided by employers.
The survey collects data from a sample of
approximately 9,000 private sector and
State and local government establishments.
The data are presented as a percentage of em­
ployees who participate in a certain benefit, or
as an average benefit provision (for example,
the average number of paid holidays provided
to employees per year). Selected data from the
survey are presented in table 25 for medium
and large private establishments and in table
26 for small private establishments and State
and local government.
The survey covers paid leave benefits
such as holidays and vacations, and personal,
funeral, jury duty, military, family, and sick
leave; short-term disability, long-term dis­
ability, and life insurance; medical, dental,
and vision care plans; defined benefit and
defined contribution plans; flexible benefits
plans; reimbursement accounts; and unpaid
family leave.
Also, data are tabulated on the inci­
dence of several other benefits, such as
severance pay, child-care assistance, wellness
programs, and employee assistance
programs.

Definitions
E m ployer-provided benefits are benefits

that are financed either wholly or partly by
the employer. They may be sponsored by a
union or other third party, as long as there is
some employer financing. However, some
benefits that are fully paid for by the em­
ployee also are included. For example, long­
term care insurance and postretirement life
insurance paid entirely by the employee are
included because the guarantee of insurabil­
ity and availability at group premium rates
are considered a benefit.
Participants are workers who are covered
by a benefit, whether or not they use that benefit
If the benefit plan is financed wholly by


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employers and requires employees to complete
a minimum length of service for eligibility, the
workers are considered participants whether or
not they have met the requirement. If workers
are required to contribute towards the cost of a
plan, they are considered participants only if
they elect the plan and agree to make the required
contributions.
Defined benefit pension plans use pre­
determined formulas to calculate a retirement
benefit (if any), and obligate the employer to
provide those benefits. Benefits are generally
based on salary, years of service, or both.
D efined contribution plans generally
specify the level of employer and employee
contributions to a plan, but not the formula for
determining eventual benefits. Instead, indi­
vidual accounts are set up for participants, and
benefits are based on amounts credited to these
accounts.
Tax-deferred savings plans are a type of
defined contribution plan that allow par­
ticipants to contribute a portion of their sal­
ary to an employer-sponsored plan and defer
income taxes until withdrawal.
Flexible benefit plans allow employees
to choose among several benefits, such as life
insurance, medical care, and vacation days, and
among several levels of coverage within a given
benefit.

Notes on the data
Surveys of employees in medium and large
establishments conducted over the 1979-86
period included establishments that employed
at least 50,100, or 250 workers, depending on
the industry (most service industries were
excluded). The survey conducted in 1987
covered only State and local governments with
50 or more employees. The surveys conducted
in 1988 and 1989 included medium and large
establishments with 100 workers or more in
private industries. All surveys conducted over
the 1979-89 period excluded establishments
in Alaska and Hawaii, as well as part-time
employees.
Beginning in 1990, surveys of State and
local governments and small private
establishments were conducted in evennumbered years, and surveys of medium and
large establishments were conducted in oddnumbered years. The small establishment
survey includes all private nonfarm
establishm ents with fewer than 100
workers, while the State and local
government survey includes all governments,
regardless of the number of workers. All
three surveys include full- and part-time
workers, and workers in all 50 States and
the District of Columbia.

For additional information on the Em­
ployee Benefits Survey, contact the Office of
Compensation Levels and Trends on the
Internet:
http:ZAvww.bIs.gov/ebs/

Work stoppages
Description of the series
Data on work stoppages measure the number
and duration of major strikes or lockouts (in­
volving 1,000 workers or more) occurring dur­
ing the month (or year), the number of work­
ers involved, and the amount of work time lost
because of stoppage. These data are presented
in table 31.
Data are largely from a variety of pub­
lished sources and cover only establishments
directly involved in a stoppage. They do
not measure the indirect or secondary effect
of stoppages on other establishments whose
employees are idle owing to material short­
ages or lack of service.

Definitions
The number of
strikes and lockouts involving 1,000 workers
or more and lasting a full shift or longer.
Workers involved: The number of work­
ers directly involved in the stoppage.
N um ber o f days idle: The aggregate
number of workdays lost by workers involved
in the stoppages.

N um ber o f stoppages:

D a y s o f id le n e ss as a p e r c en t o f
e stim a te d w o rk in g tim e: Aggregate

workdays lost as a percent of the aggregate
number of standard workdays in the period
multiplied by total employment in the
period.

Notes on the data
This series is not comparable with the one
terminated in 1981 that covered strikes in­
volving six workers or more.
For additional information on work
stoppages data, contact the Office of Com­
pensation and Working Conditions: (202)
691-6282, or the Internet:
http :/w ww.bls.gov/cba/

Price Data
(Tables 2; 32-42)
P rice data are gathered by the Bureau

of Labor Statistics from retail and pri­
mary markets in the United States. Price in-

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

115

Current Labor Statistics

dexes are given in relation to a base period—
1982 = 100 for many Producer Price Indexes,
1982-84 = 100 for many Consumer Price In­
dexes (unless otherwise noted), and 1990 =
100 for International Price Indexes.

Consumer Price Indexes
Description of the series
The Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a mea­
sure of the average change in the prices
paid by urban consumers for a fixed mar­
ket basket of goods and services. The CPI
is calculated monthly for two population
groups, one consisting only of urban
households whose primary source of in­
come is derived from the employment of
wage earners and clerical workers, and the
other consisting of all urban households.
The wage earner index (CPi-W) is a continu­
ation of the historic index that was intro­
duced well over a half-century ago for use
in wage negotiations. As new uses were
developed for the CPI in recent years, the
need for a broader and more representa­
tive index became apparent. The all-urban
consumer index (CPI-U), introduced in 1978,
is representative of the 1993-95 buying
habits of about 87 percent of the noninstitutional population of the United States
at that time, compared with 32 percent
represented in the CPi-w. In addition to
wage earners and clerical workers, the cpiu covers professional, managerial, and tech­
nical workers, the self-employed, short­
term workers, the unemployed, retirees,
and others not in the labor force.
The cpi is based on prices of food,
clothing, shelter, fuel, drugs, transporta­
tion fares, doctors’ and dentists’ fees, and
other goods and services that people buy
for day-to-day living. The quantity and
quality of these items are kept essentially
unchanged between major revisions so that
only price changes will be measured. All
taxes directly associated with the pur­
chase and use of items are included in the
index.
Data collected from more than 23,000
retail establishments and 5,800 housing
units in 87 urban areas across the country
are used to develop the “U.S. city aver­
age.” Separate estimates for 14 major ur­
ban centers are presented in table 33. The
areas listed are as indicated in footnote 1
to the table. The area indexes measure only
the average change in prices for each area
since the base period, and do not indicate
differences in the level of prices among
cities.

Notes on the d ata
116

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

In January 1983, the Bureau changed the
way in which homeownership costs are
meaured for the cpi-U. A rental equivalence
method replaced the asset-price approach
to homeownership costs for that series. In
January 1985, the same change was made in
the cpi-w . The central purpose of the change
was to separate shelter costs from the in­
vestment component of home-ownership so
that the index would reflect only the cost of
shelter services provided by owner-occu­
pied homes. An updated CPI-U and CPi-w
were introduced with release of the January
1987 and January 1998 data.
F or additional information , contact
the Division of Prices and Price Indexes:
(202) 691-7000.

together with implicit quantity weights
representing their importance in the total net
selling value of all commodities as of 1987.
The detailed data are aggregated to obtain
indexes for stage-of-processing groupings,
commodity groupings, durability-ofproduct groupings, and a number of special
composite groups. All Producer Price Index
data are subject to revision 4 months after
original publication.
F or ADDITIONAL INFORMATION, contact
the Division of Industrial Prices and Price
Indexes: (202) 691-7705.

International Price indexes
Description of the series

The International Price Program pro­
duces monthly and quarterly export and
import price indexes for nonm ilitary
Description of the series
goods and services traded between the
Producer Price Indexes (PPi) measure av­ United States and the rest of the world.
erage changes in prices received by do­ The export price index provides a measure
mestic producers of commodities in all of price change for all products sold by
stages of processing. The sample used for U.S. residents to foreign buyers. (“Resi­
calculating these indexes currently con­ dents” is defined as in the national income
tains about 3,200 commodities and about accounts; it includes corporations, busi­
80,000 quotations per month, selected to nesses, and individuals, but does not re­
represent the movement of prices of all quire the organizations to be U.S. owned
commodities produced in the manufactur­ nor the individuals to have U.S. citizen­
ing; agriculture, forestry, and fishing; min­ ship.) The import price index provides a
ing; and gas and electricity and public utili­ measure of price change for goods pur­
ties sectors. The stage-of-processing chased from other countries by U.S. resi­
structure of ppi organizes products by dents.
The product universe for both the im­
class of buyer and degree of fabrication
(that is, finished goods, intermediate port and export indexes includes raw ma­
goods, and crude materials). The tradi­ terials, agricultural products, semifinished
tional commodity structure of ppi orga­ manufactures, and finished manufactures,
nizes products by similarity of end use or including both capital and consumer
material composition. The industry and goods. Price data for these items are col­
product structure of ppi organizes data in lected primarily by mail questionnaire. In
accordance with the Standard Industrial nearly all cases, the data are collected di­
rectly from the exporter or importer, al­
Classification (SIC) and the product code
though in a few cases, prices are obtained
extension of the SIC developed by the U.S.
from other sources.
Bureau of the Census.
To the extent possible, the data gath­
To the extent possible, prices used in
calculating Producer Price Indexes apply ered refer to prices at the U.S. border for
to the first significant commercial transac­ exports and at either the foreign border or
tion in the United States from the produc­ the U.S. border for imports. For nearly all
tion or central marketing point. Price data products, the prices refer to transactions
are generally collected monthly, primarily completed during the first week of the
by mail questionnaire. Most prices are ob­ month. Survey respondents are asked to
tained directly from producing companies indicate all discounts, allowances, and re­
on a voluntary and confidential basis. bates applicable to the reported prices, so
Prices generally are reported for the Tues­ that the price used in the calculation of
day of the week containing the 13th day the indexes is the actual price for which
of the month.
the product was bought or sold.
Since January 1992, price changes for the
In addition to general indexes of prices for
various commodities have been averaged U.S. exports and imports, indexes are also

Producer Price Indexes

February 2004

published for detailed product categories of
exports and imports. These categories are
defined according to the five-digit level of detail
for the Bureau of Economic Analysis End-use
Classification, the three-digit level for the
Standard Industrial Classification (SITC), and
the four-digit level of detail for the Harmonized
System. Aggregate import indexes by coun­
try or region of origin are also available.
BLS publishes indexes for selected cat­
egories o f internationally traded services,
calculated on an international basis and on
a balance-of-paym ents basis.

Notes on the d ata
The export and import price indexes are
weighted indexes of the Laspeyres type.
The trade weights currently used to com­
pute both indexes relate to 2000.
Because a price index depends on the same
items being priced from period to period, it is
necessary to recognize when a product’s
specifications or terms of transaction have
been modified. For this reason, the Bureau’s
questionnaire requests detailed descriptions of
the physical and functional characteristics of
the products being priced, as well as informa­
tion on the number of units bought or sold,
discounts, credit terms, packaging, class of
buyer or seller, and so forth. When there are
changes in either the specifications or terms of
transaction of a product, the dollar value of
each change is deleted from the total price
change to obtain the “pure” change. Once this
value is determined, a linking procedure is em­
ployed which allows for the continued repric­
ing of the item.
F or additional information, contact
the Division of International Prices: (202)
691-7155.

Productivity Data
(Tables 2; 43-46)

Business and major sectors
Description of the series
The productivity measures relate real output
to real input. As such, they encompass a fam­
ily of measures which include single-factor
input measures, such as output per hour, out­
put per unit of labor input, or output per
unit of capital input, as well as measures of
multifactor productivity (output per unit of
combined labor and capital inputs). The Bu­
reau indexes show the change in output rela­


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tive to changes in the various inputs. The
measures cover the business, nonfarm busi­
ness, manufacturing, and nonfinancial corpo­
rate sectors.
Corresponding indexes of hourly compen­
sation, unit labor costs, unit nonlabor pay­
ments, and prices are also provided.

Definitions
Output per hour of all persons (labor pro­
ductivity) is the quantity of goods and ser­
vices produced per hour of labor input. Out­
put per unit of capital services (capital
productivity) is the quantity of goods and
services produced per unit of capital ser­
vices input. Multifactor productivity is the
quantity of goods and services produced per
combined inputs. For private business and pri­
vate nonfarm business, inputs include labor
and capital units. For manufacturing, inputs
include labor, capital, energy, nonenergy mate­
rials, and purchased business services.
Compensation per hour is total com­
pensation divided by hours at work. Total
compensation equals the wages and salaries
of employees plus employers’ contributions
for social insurance and private benefit plans,
plus an estimate of these payments for the
self-employed (except for nonfinancial cor­
porations in which there are no self-em­
ployed). Real compensation per hour is
compensation per hour deflated by the
change in the Consumer Price Index for All
Urban Consumers.
Unit labor costs are the labor compen­
sation costs expended in the production of a
unit of output and are derived by dividing
compensation by output. Unit nonlabor
payments include profits, depreciation,
interest, and indirect taxes per unit of out­
put. They are computed by subtracting com­
pensation of all persons from current-dollar
value of output and dividing by output.
Unit nonlabor costs contain all the
components of unit nonlabor payments
except unit profits.
Unit profits include corporate profits
with inventory valuation and capital con­
sumption adjustments per unit of output.
Hours of all persons are the total
hours at work of payroll workers, selfemployed persons, and unpaid family
workers.
Labor inputs are hours of all persons
adjusted for the effects of changes in the
education and experience of the labor force.
Capital services are the flow of ser­
vices from the capital stock used in pro­
duction. It is developed from measures of

the net stock of physical assets—equip­
ment, structures, land, and inventories—
weighted by rental prices for each type of
asset.
Combined units of labor and capital
inputs are d e riv e d by co m b in in g
changes in labor and capital input with
w eights w hich re p re se n t each
co m p o n e n t’s share of to ta l cost.
Combined units of labor, capital, energy,
m a te ria ls, and p u rch ased b u sin ess
serv ices are sim ila rly d e riv e d by
combining changes in each input with
w eights that rep resen t each in p u t’s
share of total costs. The indexes for
each input and for combined units are
based on changing weights which are
averages of the shares in the current and
preceding year (the Tornquist indexnumber formula).

Notes on the d ata
Business sector output is an annuallyweighted index constructed by excluding
from real gross domestic product ( g d p ) the
following outputs: general government,
nonprofit institutions, paid employees of
private households, and the rental value
of owner-occupied dwellings. Nonfarm
business also excludes farming. Private
business and private nonfarm business
further exclude government enterprises.
The measures are supplied by the U.S. De­
partment of Commerce’s Bureau of Eco­
nomic Analysis. Annual estimates of manu­
facturing sectoral output are produced by
the Bureau of Labor Statistics. Quarterly
manufacturing output indexes from the
Federal Reserve Board are adjusted to these
annual output measures by the bl s . Com­
pensation data are developed from data of
the Bureau of Economic Analysis and the
Bureau of Labor Statistics. Hours data
are developed from data of the Bureau of
Labor Statistics.
The productivity and associated cost
measures in tables 43-46 describe the re­
lationship between output in real terms
and the labor and capital inputs involved
in its production. They show the changes
from period to period in the amount of
goods and services produced per unit of
input.
Although these measures relate output
to hours and capital services, they do not
measure the contributions of labor, capi­
tal, or any other specific factor of produc­
tion. Rather, they reflect the joint effect
of many influences, including changes in
technology; shifts in the composition of

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

117

Current Labor Statistics

the labor force; capital investment; level
of output; changes in the utilization of
capacity, energy, material, and research
and development; the organization of pro­
duction; managerial skill; and characteris­
tics and efforts of the work force.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION On this
productivity series, contact the Division
of Productivity Research: (202) 691 —
5606.

Industry productivity
measures
Description of the series
The bls industry productivity indexes
measure the relationship between output and
inputs for selected industries and industry
groups, and thus reflect trends in industry
efficiency over time. Industry measures include
labor productivity, multifactor productivity,
compensation, and unit labor costs.
The industry measures differ in
methodology and data sources from the
productivity measures for the major sectors
because the industry measures are developed
independently of the National Income and
Product Accounts framework used for the
major sector measures.

Definitions

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Notes on the data
The industry measures are compiled from
data produced by the Bureau of Labor Sta­
tistics and the Bureau of the Census,with
additional data supplied by other govern­
ment agencies, trade associations, and
other sources.
For most industries, the productivity
indexes refer to the output per hour of all
employees. For some trade and services
industries, indexes of output per hour of
all persons (including self-employed) are
constructed. For some transportation in­
dustries, only indexes of output per em­
ployee are prepared.
FOR ADDITIONAL INFORMATION on this
series, contact the Division of Industry
Productivity Studies: (202) 691-5618.

International
Comparisons
(Tables 47-49)

Output per hour is derived by dividing an
index of industry output by an index of labor
input. For most industries, output indexes are
derived from data on the value of industry out­
put adjusted for price change. For the remain­
ing industries, output indexes are derived from
data on the physical quantity of production.
The labor input series consist of the hours of
all employees (production workers and nonpro­
duction workers), the hours of all persons (paid
employees, partners, proprietors, and unpaid fam­
ily workers), or the number of employees, de­
pending upon the industry.
Unit labor costs represent the labor com­
pensation costs per unit of output produced,
and are derived by dividing an index of labor
compensation by an index of output. Labor
compensation includes payroll as well as
supplemental payments, including both legally
required expenditures and payments for vol­
untary programs.
Multifactor productivity is derived by
dividing an index of industry output by an
index of the combined inputs consumed in pro­
ducing that output. Combined inputs in­
clude capital, labor, and intermediate pur­

118

chases. The measure of capital input used
represents the flow of services from the capi­
tal stock used in production. It is developed
from measures of the net stock of physical
assets—equipment, structures, land, and in­
ventories. The measure of intermediate
purchases is a combination of purchased
materials, services, fuels, and electricity.

Labor force and
unemployment
Description of the series
Tables 47 and 48 present comparative meas­
ures of the labor force, employment, and un­
employment—approximating U.S. con­
cepts—for the United States, Canada, Aus­
tralia, Japan, and several European countries.
The unemployment statistics (and, to a
lesser extent, employment statistics) pub­
lished by other industrial countries are not,
in most cases, comparable to U.S. unem­
ployment statistics. Therefore, the Bureau
adjusts the figures for selected countries,
where necessary, for all known major defi­
nitional differences. Although precise
comparability may not be achieved, these
adjusted figures provide a better basis for
international comparisons than the figures
regularly published by each country. For
further information on adjustments and
com parability issues, see Constance
Sorrentino, “International unemployment
rates: how comparable are they?” M o n th ly

February 2004

L a b o r R e v ie w ,

June 2000, pp. 3-20.

Definitions
For the principal U.S. definitions of the labor
force, employment, and unemployment, see
the Notes section on Employment and Unem­
ployment Data: Household survey data.

Notes on the data
The adjusted statistics have been adapted to
the age at which compulsory schooling ends
in each country, rather than to the U.S. stan­
dard of 16 years of age and older. Therefore,
the adjusted statistics relate to the popula­
tion aged 16 and older in France, Sweden, and
the United Kingdom; 15 and older in Austra­
lia, Japan, Germany, Italy from 1993 onward,
and the Netherlands; and 14 and older in Italy
prior to 1993. An exception to this rule is
that the Canadian statistics for 1976 onward
are adjusted to cover ages 16 and older,
whereas the age at which compulsory school­
ing ends remains at 15. The institutional
population is included in the denominator of
the labor force participation rates and em­
ployment-population ratios for Japan and
Germany; it is excluded for the United States
and the other countries.
In the U.S. labor force survey, persons on
layoff who are awaiting recall to their jobs
are classified as unemployed. European and
Japanese layoff practices are quite different
in nature from those in the United States;
therefore, strict application of the U.S. defi­
nition has not been made on this point. For
further information, see M o n th ly L a b o r R e ­
v ie w , December 1981, pp. 8-11.
The figures for one or more recent years
for France, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands,
and the United Kingdom are calculated using
adjustment factors based on labor force sur­
veys for earlier years and are considered pre­
liminary. The recent-year measures for these
countries, therefore, are subject to revision
whenever data from more current labor force
surveys become available.
There are breaks in the data series for the
United States (1990,1994,1997,1998,1999,
2000), Canada (1976) France (1992), Ger­
many (1991), Italy (1991, 1993), the Neth­
erlands (1988), and Sweden (1987).
For the United States, the break in series
reflects a major redesign of the labor force
survey questionnaire and collection method­
ology introduced in January 1994. Revised
population estimates based on the 1990 cen­
sus, adjusted for the estimated undercount,
also were incorporated. In 1996, previously
published data for the 1990-93 period were

revised to reflect the 1990 census-based
population controls, adjusted for the un­
dercount. In 1997, revised population con­
trols were introduced into the household sur­
vey. Therefore, the data are not strictly
conparable with prior years. In 1998, new
composite estimation procedures and minor
revisions in population controls were intro­
duced into the household survey. Therefore,
the data are not strictly comparable with data
for 1997 and earlier years. See the Notes sec­
tion on Employment and Unemployment
Data of this R e v ie w .
bls recently introduced a new adjusted
series for Canada. Beginning with the data
for 1976, Canadian data are adjusted to more
closely approximate U.S. concepts. Adjust­
ments are made to the unemployed and labor
force to exclude: (1) 15-year-olds; (2) pas­
sive jobseekers (persons only reading news­
paper ads as their method of job search); (3)
persons waiting to start a new job who did
not seek work in the past 4 weeks; and (4)
persons unavailable for work due to personal
or family responsibilities. An adjustment is
made to include full-tine students looking for
full-time work. The impact of the adjust­
ments was to lower the annual average unem­
ployment rate by 0.1-0.4 percentage point
in the 1980s and 0.4-1.0 percentage point in
the 1990s.
For France, the 1992 break reflects the
substitution of standardized European Union
Statistical Office (eurostat) unemployment
statistics for the unemployment data esti­
mated according to the International Labor
Office (ilo) definition and published in the
Organization for Economic Cooperation and
Development (OECD) annual yearbook and
quarterly update. This change was made be­
cause the eurostat data are more up-to-date
than the oecd figures. Also, since 1992, the
eurostat definitions are closer to the U.S.
definitions than they were in prior years. The
impact of this revision was to lower the un­
employment rate by 0.1 percentage point in
1992 and 1993, by 0.4 percentage point in
1994, and 0.5 percentage point in 1995.
For Germany, the data for 1991 onward
refer to unified Germany. Data prior to 1991
relate to the former West Germany. The im­
pact of including the former East Germany
was to increase the unemployment rate from
4.3 to 5.6 percent in 1991.
For Italy, the 1991 break reflects a revi­
sion in the method of weighting sample
data. The impact was to increase the un­
employment rate by approximately 0.3
percentage point, from 6.6 to 6.9 percent
in 1991.
In October 1992, the survey methodol­
ogy was revised and the definition of unem­
ployment was changed to include only those


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who were actively looking for a job within
the 30 days preceding the survey and who
were available for work. In addition, the
lower age limit for the labor force was raised
from 14 to 15 years. (Prior to these changes,
BLS adjusted Italy’s published unemploy­
ment rate downward by excluding from the
unemployed those persons who had not
actively sought work in the past 30 days.)
The break in the series also reflects the incor­
poration of the 1991 population census re­
sults. The impact of these changes was to
raise Italy’s adjusted unemployment rate by
approximately 1.2 percentage points, from
8.3 to 9.5 percent in fourth-quarter 1992.
These changes did not affect employment
significantly, except in 1993. Estimates by
the Italian Statistical Office indicate that em­
ployment declined by about 3 percent in
1993, rather than the nearly 4 percent indi­
cated by the data shown in table 44. This
difference is attributable mainly to the incor­
poration of the 1991 population benchmarks
in the 1993 data. Data for earlier years have
not been adjusted to incorporate the 1991
census results.
For the Netherlands, a new survey ques­
tionnaire was introduced in 1992 that allowed
for a closer application of ilo guidelines.
eurostat has revised the Dutch series back
to 1988 based on the 1992 changes. The 1988
revised unemployment rate is 7.6 percent;
the previous estimate for the same year was
9.3 percent.
There have been two breaks in series in
the Swedish labor force survey, in 1987 and
1993. Adjustments have been made for the
1993 break back to 1987. In 1987, a new
questionnaire was introduced. Questions
regarding current availability were added
and the period of active workseeking was
reduced from 60 days to 4 weeks. These
changes lowered Sweden’s 1987 unem­
ployment rate by 0.4 percentage point,
from 2.3 to 1.9 percent. In 1993, the mea­
surement period for the labor force sur­
vey was changed to represent all 52 weeks
of the year rather than one week each
month and a new adjustment for popula­
tion totals was introduced. The impact
was to raise the unemployment rate by
approximately 0.5 percentage point, from
7.6 to 8.1 percent. Statistics Sweden re­
vised its labor force survey data for 1987—
92 to take into account the break in 1993.
The adjustment raised the Swedish unem­
ployment rate by 0.2 percentage point in
1987 and gradually rose to 0.5 percentage
point in 1992.
Beginning with 1987, bls has adjusted the
Swedish data to classify students who also
sought work as unemployed. The impact of

this change was to increase the adjusted un­
employment rate by 0.1 percentage point in
1987 and by 1.8 percentage points in 1994,
when unemployment was higher. In 1998,
the adjusted unemployment rate had risen
from 6.5 to 8.4 percent due to the adjustment
to include students.
The net effect of the 1987 and 1993
changes and the bls adjustment for stu­
dents seeking work lowered Sweden’s
1987 unemployment rate from 2.3 to 2.2
percent.
FORADDITIONAL INFORMATION on this se­
ries, contact the Division of Foreign Labor
Statistics: (202) 691-5654.

Manufacturing productivity
and labor costs
Description of the series
Table 49 presents comparative indexes of
manufacturing labor productivity (output per
hour), output, total hours, compensation per
hour, and unit labor costs for the United
States, Canada, Japan, and nine European
countries. These measures are trend compari­
sons—that is, series that measure changes
over time—rather than level comparisons.
There are greater technical problems in com­
paring the levels of manufacturing output
among countries.
bls constructs the comparative indexes
from three basic aggregate measures—output,
total labor hours, and total compensation.
The hours and compensation measures refer
to all employed persons (wage and salary
earners plus self-employed persons and un­
paid family workers) in the United States,
Canada, Japan, France, Germany, Norway,
and Sweden, and to all employees (wage and
salary earners) in the other countries.

Definitions
Output, in general, refers to value added
in manufacturing from the national ac­
counts of each country. However, the
output series for Japan prior to 1970 is
an index of industrial production, and the
national accounts measures for the United
Kingdom are essentially identical to their
indexes of industrial production.
The 1977-97 output data for the
United States are the gross product origi­
nating (value added) measures prepared
by the Bureau of Economic Analysis of
the U.S. Department of Commerce. Com­
parable manufacturing output data cur­
rently are not available prior to 1977.

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

119

Current Labor Statistics

U.S. gross product originating is a chaintype annual-weighted series. (For more in­
formation on the U.S. measure, see Robert
E. Yuskavage, “Improved Estimates of
Gross Product by Industry, 1959-94,”
Survey o f Current Business, August 1996,
pp. 133-55.) The Japanese value added
series is based upon one set of fixed price
weights for the years 1970 through 1997.
Output series for the other foreign econo­
mies also employ fixed price weights, but
the weights are updated periodically (for
example, every 5 or 10 years).
To preserve the comparability of the
U.S. measures with those for other econo­
mies, bls uses gross product originating
in manufacturing for the United States for
these comparative measures. The gross
product originating series differs from the
manufacturing output series that bls pub­
lishes in its news releases on quarterly
measures of U.S. productivity and costs
(and that underlies the measures that ap­
pear in tables 43 and 45 in this section).
The quarterly measures are on a “sectoral
output” basis, rather than a value-added
basis. Sectoral output is gross output less
intrasector transactions.
Total labor hours refers to hours worked
in all countries. The measures are developed
from statistics of manufacturing employment
and average hours. The series used for France
(from 1970 forward), Norway, and Sweden
are official series published with the national
accounts. Where official total hours series are
not available, the measures are developed by
bls using employment figures published with
the national accounts, or other comprehen­
sive employment series, and estimates of an­
nual hours worked. For Germany, bls uses
estimates of average hours worked developed
by a research institute connected to the Min­
istry of Labor for use with the national ac­
counts employment figures. For the other
countries, BLS constructs its own estimates
of average hours.
Denmark has not published estimates of
average hours for 1994-97; therefore, the
bls measure of labor input for Denmark ends
in 1993.
Total compensation (labor cost) includes
all payments in cash or in-kind made directly
to employees plus employer expenditures for
legally required insurance programs and con­
tractual and private benefit plans. The mea­
sures are from the national accounts of each
country, except those for Belgium, which are
developed by BLS using statistics on employ­
ment, average hours, and hourly compensa­
tion. For Canada, France, and Sweden, com­
pensation is increased to account for other sig­
nificant taxes on payroll or employment. For
the United Kingdom, compensation is reduced
between 1967 and 1991 to account for em­

120

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ployment-related subsidies. Self-employed
workers are included in the all-employed-per­
sons measures by assuming that their hourly
compensation is equal to the average for wage
and salary employees.

Notes on the data
In general, the measures relate to total manu­
facturing as defined by the International Stan­
dard Industrial Classification. However, the
measures for France (for all years) and Italy
(beginning 1970) refer to mining and manu­
facturing less energy-related products, and
the measures for Denmark include mining and
exclude manufacturing handicrafts from 1960
to 1966.
The measures for recent years may
be based on current indicators of manu­
facturing output (such as industrial
production indexes), employment, av­
erage hours, and hourly compensation
until national accounts and other sta­
tistics used for the long-term measures
become available.
F or ADDITIONAL INFORMATION on this
series, contact the Division of Foreign
Labor Statistics: (202) 691-5654.

Occupational Injury
and Illness Data
(Tables 50-51)

Survey of Occupational
Injuries and Illnesses

Definitions
Under the Occupational Safety and Health
Act, employers maintain records of nonfatal
work-related injuries and illnesses that in­
volve one or more of the following: loss of
consciousness, restriction of work or motion,
transfer to another job, or medical treatment
other than first aid.
Occupational injury is any injury such as
a cut, fracture, sprain, or amputation that re­
sults from a work-related event or a single, in­
stantaneous exposure in the work environment.
Occupational illness is an abnormal con­
dition or disorder, other than one resulting from
an occupational injury, caused by exposure to
factors associated with employment. It in­
cludes acute and chronic illnesses or disease
which may be caused by inhalation, absorp­
tion, ingestion, or direct contact.
Lost workday injuries and illnesses are
cases that involve days away from work, or
days of restricted work activity, or both.
Lost workdays include the number of
workdays (consecutive or not) on which
the employee was either away from work
or at work in some restricted capacity, or
both, because of an occupational injury or
illness, bls measures of the number and
incidence rate of lost workdays were dis­
continued beginning with the 1993 sur­
vey. The number of days away from
work or days of restricted work activity
does not include the day of injury or on­
set of illness or any days on which the
employee would not have worked, such
as a Federal holiday, even though able to
work.
Incidence rates are computed as the num­
ber of injuries and/or illnesses or lost work
days per 100 full-time workers.

Description of the series
The Survey of Occupational Injuries and Ill­
nesses collects data from employers about
their workers’ job-related nonfatal injuries
and illnesses. The information that employ­
ers provide is based on records that they
maintain under the Occupational Safety and
Health Act of 1970. Self-employed individu­
als, farms with fewer than 11 employees,
employers regulated by other Federal safety
and health laws, and Federal, State, and lo­
cal government agencies are excluded from
the survey.
The survey is a Federal-State coopera­
tive program with an independent sample
selected for each participating State. A
stratified random sample with a Neyman
allocation is selected to represent all pri­
vate industries in the State. The survey is
stratified by Standard Industrial Classifi­
cation and size of employment.

February 2004

Notes on the data
The definitions of occupational injuries and
illnesses are from Recordkeeping Guidelines
fo r Occupational Injuries and Illnesses (U.S.
Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Sta­
tistics, September 1986).
Estimates are made for industries and em­
ployment size classes for total recordable cases,
lost workday cases, days away from work
cases, and nonfatal cases without lost work­
days. These data also are shown separately for
injuries. Illness data are available for seven cat­
egories: occupational skin diseases or disorders,
dust diseases of the lungs, respiratory condi­
tions due to toxic agents, poisoning (systemic
effects of toxic agents), disorders due to physi­
cal agents (other than toxic materials), disorders
associated with repeated trauma, and all other
occupational illnesses.
The survey continues to measure the num-

ber of new work-related illness cases which are
recognized, diagnosed, and reported during the
year. Some conditions, for example, long-term
latent illnesses caused by exposure to carcino­
gens, often are difficult to relate to the work­
place and are not adequately recognized and
reported. These long-term latent illnesses are
believed to be understated in the survey’s ill­
ness measure. In contrast, the overwhelming
majority of the reported new illnesses are those
which are easier to directly relate to workplace
activity (for example, contact dermatitis and
carpal tunnel syndrome).
Most of the estimates are in the form of
incidence rates, defined as the number of
injuries and illnesses per 100 equivalent
full-tim e w orkers. For this purpose,
200,000 employee hours represent 100
employee years (2,000 hours per em­
ployee). Full detail on the available mea­
sures is presented in the annual bulletin,
O ccu p a tio n a l In ju rie s and Illn e sses:
Counts, Rates, and Characteristics.

Comparable data for more than 40 States
and territories are available from the bls Of­
fice of Safety, Health and Working Condi­
tions. Many of these States publish data on
State and local government employees in ad­
dition to private industry data.
Mining and railroad data are furnished to
BLS by the Mine Safety and Health Adminis­
tration and the Federal Railroad Administra­
tion. Data from these organizations are in­
cluded in both the national and State data
published annually.
With the 1992 survey, bls began publish­
ing details on serious, nonfatal incidents re­
sulting in days away from work. Included are
some major characteristics of the injured and
ill workers, such as occupation, age, gender,
race, and length of service, as well as the


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circumstances of their injuries and illnesses
(nature of the disabling condition, part of
body affected, event and exposure, and the
source directly producing the condition). In
general, these data are available nationwide
for detailed industries and for individual
States at more aggregated industry levels.
For additional information on occu­
pational injuries and illnesses, contact the Of­
fice of Occupational Safety, Health and Work­
ing Conditions at (202) 691-6180, or access
the Internet at:
http ://www.bIs.gov/iif/

Census of Fatal
Occupational Injuries
The Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries
compiles a complete roster of fatal job-re­
lated injuries, including detailed data about
the fatally injured workers and the fatal
events. The program collects and cross
checks fatality information from multiple
sources, including death certificates, State
and Federal workers’ compensation reports,
Occupational Safety and Health Administra­
tion and Mine Safety and Health Adminis­
tration records, medical examiner and au­
topsy reports, media accounts, State motor
vehicle fatality records, and follow-up ques­
tionnaires to employers.
In addition to private wage and salary
workers, the self-employed, family members,
and Federal, State, and local government
workers are covered by the program. To be
included in the fatality census, the decedent
must have been employed (that is working
for pay, compensation, or profit) at the time
of the event, engaged in a legal work activity,
or present at the site of the incident as a re­
quirement of his or her job.

Definition
A fatal work injury is any intentional or
unintentional wound or damage to the
body resulting in death from acute expo­
sure to energy, such as heat or electricity,
or kinetic energy from a crash, or from the
absence of such essentials as heat or oxy­
gen caused by a specific event or incident
or series of events within a single work­
day or shift. Fatalities that occur during a
person’s commute to or from work are ex­
cluded from the census, as well as workrelated illnesses, which can be difficult
to identify due to long latency periods.

Notes on the data
Twenty-eight data elements are collected,
coded, and tabulated in the fatality pro­
gram, including information about the fa­
tally injured worker, the fatal incident, and
the machinery or equipment involved.
Summary worker demographic data and
event characteristics are included in a na­
tional news release that is available about
8 months after the end of the reference
year. The Census of Fatal Occupational
Injuries was initiated in 1992 as a joint
Federal-State effort. Most States issue
summary information at the time of the
national news release.
F or additional information on the
Census of Fatal Occupational Injuries con­
tact the bls Office of Safety, Health, and
Working Conditions at (202) 691-6175, or
the Internet at:
http://www.bls.gov/iify

Where to find additional data
Current and historical statistics from Bureau of Labor Statistics surveys are
available at the addresses listed on the inside back cover of this Review, or on
the Internet at

http://www.bls.gov

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

121

Current Labor Statistics: Comparative Indicators

1. Labor market indicators
Selected indicators

2002

2003

2001

2002

IV

1

II

2003
III

IV

1

II

III

IV

Employm ent data
Employment status of the civilian noninstitutional
population (household survey):1
Labor force participation rate.............................................................

66.6

66.2

66.8

66.6

66.7

66.6

66.5

66.3

66.4

66.2

66.1

Employment-population ratio...............................................................

62.7

62.3

63.0

62.8

62.8

62.8

62.5

62.4

62.3

62.1

62.3

Unemployment rate...........................................................................

5.8

6.0

5.6

5.6

5.9

5.8

5.9

5.8

6.1

6.1

5.9

5.9

6.3

5.7

5.7

6.0

5.9

6.1

6.1

6.5

6.4

6.1

16 to 24 years.....................................................................................

12.8

13.4

12.7

12.9

12.8

13.1

12.5

12.6

14.0

13.8

13.1

25 years and older.............................................................................

4.7

5.0

4.4

4.5

4.8

4.7

4.9

5.0

5.2

5.1

4.9

5.6

5.7

5.5

5.5

5.7

5.6

5.7

5.5

5.7

5.8

5.6

16 to 24 years.....................................................................................

11.1

11.4

10.7

11.0

11.2

10.9

11.4

11.2

11.8

11.5

10.9

25 years and older.............................................................................

4.6

4.6

4.4

4.4

4.8

4.6

4.6

4.5

4.6

4.7

4.6

M en......................................................................................

W om en....................................................................................

Employment, nonfarm (payroll data), in thousands:1
Total nonfarm.....................................................................................
Total private.................................................................................
Goods-producing....................................................................
Manufacturing.............................................................................
Service-providing..................................................

130,376

130,045

130,920

130,523

130,403

130,239

130,338

130,225

129,984

1,299

130,109

108,886

108,594

109,593

109,105

108,918

108,755

108,792

108,655

108,488

108,441

108,638

22,619

22,064

23,226

22,880

22,673

22,537

22,389

22,213

22,093

21,987

21,954

15,306

14,701

15,833

15,517

15,369

15,246

15,085

14,926

14,744

14,599

14,530

107,757

107,981

107,694

107,643

107,730

107,702

107,949

108,012

107,891

107,915

108,155

Average hours:
Total private..................................................................................
Manufacturing.....................................................................................

33.9

33.8

33.8

33.9

33.9

33.9

33.8

33.8

33.7

33.7

33.8

40.5

40.4

40.1

40.4

40.6

40.5

40.4

40.4

40.2

40.3

40.7

4.2

4.2

3.8

4.0

4.2

4.2

4.3

4.3

4.0

4.1

4.5

Overtime................................................................
Em ploym ent Cost Index2
Percent change in the ECI, compensation:
All workers (excluding farm, household and Federal workers)......

3.4

3.8

.8

1.0

.9

.9

.6

1.4

.8

1.1

.5

Private industry workers......................................................................

3.2

4.0

.8

1.1

1.1

.6

.4

1.7

.8

1.0

.4

Goods-producing3...................................................................

3.7

4.0

.8

1.2

.9

.6

.9

1.8

.9

.7

.5

Service-providing3.....................................................................

3.1
4.1

4.0

.8

1.1

.6

.2

.6

2.2

.9

.8
.4

.5

.6

1.5
.7

1.1

3.3

1.2
.4

1.7

.5

Union...........................................................................................................

4.2

4.6

1.4

1.1

1.0

1.2

.9

1.6

1.2

1.0

.7

Nonunion....................................................................................

3.2

3.9

.7

1.1

1.1

.5

.4

1.6

.8

1.0

.4

State and local government workers
Workers by bargaining status (private industry):

1 Quarterly data seasonally adjusted.

No t e : Beginning in January 2003, household survey data reflect revised population

2 Annual changes are December-to-December changes. Quarterly changes are calculated

controls. Nonfarm data reflect the conversion to the 2002 version of the North American

using the last month of each quarter.

Industry Classification System (n a ic s ), replacing the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)

3

system. NAics-based data by industry are not comparable with sic-based data.

Goods-produclng industries include mining, construction, and manufacturing. Service­

providing industries include all other private sector industries.

122

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February 2004

2. Annual and quarterly percent changes in compensation, prices, and productivity
2003

2002

2001
2002

Selected m easures

IV

III

II

1

IV

III

II

I

IV
Compensation data1’2
Em ploym ent Cost Index— compensation (wages,
salaries, benefits):
3.4

3.8

0 .8

1.0

0.9

0 .9

0 .6

1.4

0 .8

1.1

0 .5

3.2

4.0

.8

1.1

1.1

.6

.4

1.7

.8

1.0

.4

2 .9

2 .9

.7

.9

.8

.7

.4

1.0

.6

.9

.3

2 .7

3.0

.8

.9

1.0

.4

.3

1.1

.7

.8

.4

2 .3

2 .3

-.9

.7

.5

.6

-.1

1.8

-.3

-.2

-.2

3 .2

3.2

-3 .2

1.1

.2

.2

-.1

3.7

-.8

.3

.0

4 .2

4.2

-4 .3

1.5

.4

.0

-.3

2 .4

1.8

.3

.0

.4

.4

.1

2 .9

-.3

-.7

.6

.6

-.6

-.1

.0

4 .6

4 .6

- 3 .6

.9

1.1

1.1

.1

6 .5

-2 .1

-.1

.0

25.2

25.2

- 1 2 .2

8.0

37.1

1.9

6 .5

2 8.0

- 1 0 .6

3 .4

14.4

Em ploym ent C ost Index— w ages and salaries:

Price data1
Consum er Price Index (All Urban Consum ers): All Item s......
Producer Price Index:

Productivity data3
Output per hour of all persons:

. 4
’

Annual changes

are

Decem ber-to-Decem ber changes.

calculated using the last month of each quarter.

4 .8

4 .3

8.7

8 .3

1.6

4 .9

1.3

3.2

7.1

8.7

1.8

4 .9

4 .2

8 .3

9 .7

.8

4 .5

1.5

3.1

6.1

9 .5

2 .7

5.0

-

10 .8

4 .4

6.2

4 .8

4 .0

2.1

9 .6

8 .6

3 Annual rates of change are computed

Quarterly changes are

I

by comparing annual averages.

Quarterly percent changes reflect annual rates of change in quarterly indexes.

Com pensation and price data are not

Th e data are seasonally adjusted.

seasonally adjusted, and the price data are not compounded.

4 Output per hour of all em ployees.

2 Excludes Federal and private household workers.

3. Alternative measures of wage and compensation changes
Four qu arters ending—

Q uarterly change
Com ponents

I

IV

IV

III

II

I

IV

2003

2002

2003

2002

IV

III

II

Average hourly com pensation:1
All persons, business sector.....................................................................

1.3

4 .4

5.2

2 .7

0 .9

1.5

2 .4

3.1

3 .4

3 .3

1.4

3 .7

4 .8

3 .4

1.3

1.5

2 .2

2 .8

3 .3

3 .3

.6

1.4

.8

1.1

.5

3 .4

3 .9

3 .7

3 .9

3 .8

.4

1.7

.8

1.0

.4

3.2

3 .5

4 .0

4 .0

Employment Cost Index— compensation:
Civilian nonfarm2...........................................................................................
Union............................................................................................................

.9

1.6

1.2

1.0

.7

4 .2

3 .8
4 .7

5.0

4 .8

4 .6

Nonunion....................................................................................................

.4

1.6

.8

1.0

.4

3.2

3 .6

3 .3

3 .8

3 .9

S tate and local governm ents.................................................................

.9

.7

.4

1.7

.5

4.1

4 .2

4.1

3 .6

3 .3

2 .9

Em ploym ent Cost Index— w ages and salaries:
2

S tate and local governm ents.................................................................

.4

1.0

.6

.9

.3

2 .9

2 .9

2 .7

2 .9

.3

1.1

.7

.8

.4

2 .7

3.0

2 .6

3.0

3.0

.8

.5

.7

.6

.6

3 .5

3 .3

3 .0

2 .6

2 .4

.3

1.2

.7

.9

.2

2 .7

2 .9

2 .5

3.1

3.1

.6

.4

.3

1.0

.4

3 .2

3.1

3.1

2 .3

2.1

1 Seasonally adjusted. "Quarterly average" is percent change from a quarter ago, at an annual rate.
2 Excludes Federal and household workers.


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Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

123

Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data

4. Employment status of the population, by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, monthly data seasonally adjusted
[Numbers in thousands]
Employment status

Annual average
2002

2003

2002

2003

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

I

TOTAL
Civilian noninstitutional
population1...........................
Civilian labor force..............

217,570

221,168

218,741

219,897

220,114

220,317

220,540

220,768

221,014

221,252

221,507

221,779

144,863

222,039

222,279

222,509

145,818 ! 146,377
66.2
66.4
137,300 ! 137,578

66.2

146,610
66.1

146,892
66.2

147,187

66.3
137,505

66.2

146,878
66 0

137,673

146,652
66.3
137,604

146,622

136,459

145,898
66.3
137,318

66.5

137,736

145,875
66.3
137,447

146,917

66.6
136,485

145,157
66.4

146,462

Participation rate........

146,510
66.2

137,693

137,644

138,095

138,533

138,479

ulation ratio2.............

62.7

62.3

62.4

62.5

62.4

62.3

62.3

62.3

62.3

62.2

62.2

62.1

Unemployed....................

62.2

8,378
5.8
72,707

8,774

62.3

62.2

8,698

8,519

8,799

8,957

9,245

5.8 {
74,499 I

6.0
74,163

6.1

8 398
5j

74,600

8,929
6.1
74,884

8,653
5 9

74,306

6.3
74,097

8,966
6.1

74,658

5.9
74,216

9,048
6.2

8,797

6.0
73,584

8,428
5.8
74,022

8,581

6.0

75,093

75,631

96,439

98,272

97,139

97,635

97,762

97,869

97,979

98,083

98,196

98,304

98,434

98,568

98,696

98,814

73,630
76.3
69,734

98,927

74,623
75.9
70,415

73,725
75.9
69,569

74,014
75.8
69,940

74,241
75.9
70,174

74,209
75.8
70,213

74,510
76.0
70,290

74,523
76.0
70,182

74,675
76.0
70,190

74,660
75.9
70,269

74,682
75.9
70,324

74,905
76.0
70,596

74,942
75.9
70,726

75,188
76.1
70,964

75,044
75 9

ulation ratio2..............

72.3

71.7

71.6

71.6

71.8

71.7

71.7

71.6

71.5

71.5

71.4

Unemployed.....................
Unemployment rate...
Not in the labor force........

71.6

71.7

3,896
5.3
22,809

71.8

4,209
5.6
23,649

4,157

71.9

4,075
5.5
23,620

4,068
5.5
23,521

3,995
5.4

4,220
5.7

4,341

5.6
23,415

5.8
23,560

4,358
5.8
23,751

4,309
5.8
23,663

4,216
5.6
23,754

3 945

23,469

4,391
5.9
23,644

4,224
5,6

23,660

4,485
6.0
23,521

23,620

23,882

population1............................

105,136

106,800

105,678

106,235

106,322

106,411

106,510

106,613

106,724

106,839

106,957

107,080

107,197

Civilian labor force...............
Participation rate.........
Employed..........................

107,303

63,648
60.5
60,420

107,404

64,716
60.6
61,402

64,056
60.6
60,750

64,490
60.7
61,391

63,459

64,490
60.6
61,219

64,632
60.7

64,699
60.7
61,397

64,989
60.9
61,610

64,835
60.7
61,479

64,836
60.6
61,467

64,608
60.3
61,191

64,899

64,917
60.5
61,597

64 846
60 4
61,521
57.3
3 326

Employed.........................
Employment-pop-

Unemployment rate...
Not in the labor force.......

75,168

6.0
75,147

Men, 20 years and over
Civilian noninstitutional
population1.........................
Civilian labor force..............
Participation rate.........
Employed..........................
Employment-pop-

71,099

W om en, 20 years and over
Civilian noninstitutional

60.5
61,106

61,343

Employment-population ratio2..............
Unemployed.....................
Unemployment rate....
Not in the labor force........

60.5
61,524

57.5

57.5

57.5

57.8

57.5

57.5

57.6

27.6

57.7

57.5

57.5

57.1

57.4

57.4

3,228
5.1
41,488

3,314

3,100
4.8
41,745

3,253
5.1
41,964

3,271

5.1
41,914

3,379
5.2
41,735

3,356
5.2
42,004

3,369
5.2
42,121

3,417

5.1
41,921

3,289
5.1
41,878

3,302

5.1
42,083

3,306
5.2
41,622

5.3
42,472

3,375
5.2
42,299

3,320
5 1
42,387

42,558

15,994

16,096

15,925

16,027

16,030

16,038

16,051

16,072

16,095

16,109

16,116

16,131

16,145

16,162

7,585
47.4
6,332

16,168

7,170
44.5
5,919

7,376
46.3
6,141

7,371
46.0
6,117

7,298
45.5
6,039

7,120
44.1
5,868

7,235
45.1
5,945

7,240
45.0
5,926

7,254
45.1
5,873

7,157
44.4

7,104
44.1
5,902

7,051
43.7
5,846

7,082
43.8
5,972

6 987
43 2

5,856

7,097
44.0
5,857

39.6

36.8

38.6

38.2

37.7

36.6

37.0

36.9

36.5

36.4

36.6

36.3

36.2

1,253
16.5
8,409

1,251
17.5
8,926

37.0

1,235
16.7

1,260
17.3
8,751

1,252
17.6

1,314
18.1
8,832

1,381
19.0
8,841

1,301
18.2
8,952

1,202
16.9
9,012

1,240
17.5
9,034

1,109
15 7

8,918

1,290
17.8
8,816

1,205
17.1

8,549

1,254
17.0
8,656

9,094

9,080

9,191

179,783

181,292

180,580

180,460

180,599

180,728

180,873

181,021

181,184

181,341

181,512

181,696

181,871

120,150
66.8
114,013

182,032

120,546
66.5
114,235

182,185

120,072

120,117

120,247

120,514

66.6
113,985

66.6
114,118

66.6
114,220

120,470
66.6
113,978

120,816
66.7
114,222

120,645
66.5
114,086

120,658
66.5
114,156

120,411

66.5
113,876

120,223
66.5
114,057

66.3
114,015

120,736
66.4

121,041
66.5

120,751
66 3

114,535

114,783

114,678

ulation ratio2..............

63.4

63.0

63.1

63.2

63.2

63.1

63.1

63.0

63.0

62.9

62.9

Unemployed.....................
Unemployment rate....
Not in the labor force.........

62.8

6,137
5.1
59,633

63.0

63.1

6,311
5.2
60,746

62 9

6,195
5.2
60,509

6,132
5.1
60,343

6,129
5.1
60,352

6,166
5.1
60,505

6,294
5.2
60,359

6,491
5.4
60,551

6,594

6,502
5.4
60,854

6,397
5.3
61,285

6,200
5.1
61,135

6 258
5 ?

6,075

5.5
60,368

6,559
5.4
60,696

60,991

61,434

25,578

25,686

25,894

25,484

25,519

25,552

25,587

25,624

25,664

25,702

25,742

25,784

25,825

25,860

25,894

16,565
64.8
14,872

16,526
64.3
14,739

16,701
64.8
14,799

16,443
64.5
14,717

16,417
64.3
14,665

16,359
64.0
14,678 I

16,521
64.6
14,739

16,614
64.8
14,838

16,655
64.9
14,729

16,563
64.4
14,727

16,585
64.4
14,771

166,677
64.7

16,589
64.2
14,696

16,524
63.9
14,812

16,365
63 2

58.1

57.4

57.4

57.8

57.5

57.4 I

57.6

57.9

57.4

57.3

57.4

1,693
10.2
9,013

1,787

1,902
11.4
9,082

1,727

1,751
10.7
9,103

1,681
10.3 i
9,193 I

1,782
10.8
9,066

1,776
10.7
9,011

1,926
11.6
9,009

1,836
11.1
9,139

Both sexes, 16 to 19 years
Civilian noninstitutional
population1............................
Civilian labor force...............
Participation rate.........
Employed..........................
Employment-pop­
ulation ratio2...............
Unemployed.....................
Unemployment rate....
Notin the labor force........

5,859
36 2
1 128

W hite3
Civilian noninstitutional
population1..........................
Civilian labor force...............
Participation rate.........
Employed..........................
Employment-pop-

Black or African Am erican3
Civilian noninstitutional
population1..........................
Civilian labor force...............
Participation rate.........
Employed..........................
Employment-pop­
ulation ratio2...............
Unemployed.....................
Unemployment rate....
Not in the labor force........

10.8
9,161

10.5
9,040

See footnotes at end of table.

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February 2004

1,813
10.9
9,127 I

14,826

14,679

57.5

56.9

57.3

56.7

1,851
11.1
9,107

1,893
11.4

1,712
10.4
9,336

1 686

9,236 I

10.3
9,529

4. Continued—Employment status ot the population, by sex, age, race, and Hispanic origin, monthly data seasonally adjusted
[Numbers in thousands]
Annual average
Employment status

2003

2002

2002

2003

Dec.

Jan.

Feb

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct

Nov.

Dec.

25,963

27,551

25,963

26,994

27,391
18,763

27,913
18,940
67.9

17,160

17,173

18,770
68.0
17,247

27,808
18,877

68.5
17,247

18,840
68.5
17,290

27,701
18,843
68.0
173 83

28,116

18,584
68.8
17,119

27,291
18,779
68.8
17,350

28,016

18,150
68.7
16,704

27,191
18,604

27,597

18,813
68.3
17,372

27,095
18,596
68.6

27,494

17,943
69.1
16,590

19,125
68.3
17,709

19,035
67 .7
17,784

Unemployed.....................
Unemployment rate...

63.9
1,353
7.5

63.1
1,441
7.7
8,738

63.6
1,428
7.6
8,512

63.0
1,516
8.1
8,628

62.9
1,550
8.2
8,654

62.5
1,523
8.1
8,828

62.8
1,460
7.8
8,858

63.2
1,416
7.4

8,020

1,465
7.9
8,410

62.8
1,421

Not in the labor force..........

63.2
1,446
8.0
8,286

63.3
1,250
6.6
9,083

Hispanic or Latino
ethnicity
Civilian noninstitutional
Civilian labor force...............
Participation rate..........

68.4

67.9
17,456

17,556

Employment-pop63.4

63.3
1,436
7.7
8,498

63.2
1,431
7.7
8,587

7.5
8,931

62.9
1,383
7.3
8,974

8,891

1 The population figures are not seasonally adjusted.

NOTE: Estimates for the above race groups (white and black or African American) do not sum

2 Civilian employment as a percent of the civilian noninstitutional population.

to totals because data are not presented for all races. In addition, persons whose ethnicity is
identified as Hispanic or Latino may be of any race and, therefore, are classified by ethnicity as

3 Beginning In 2003, persons who selected this race group only; persons who selected

well as by race. Beginning in January 2003, data reflect revised population controls used in the

more than one race group are not included. Prior to 2003, persons who reported more

household survey.

than one race were Included In the group they identified as the main race.

5. Selected employment indicators, monthly data seasonally adjusted
[In thousands]________________________ _______ ___________________ ____
Selected categories

2003

Annual average

2002

2002

2003

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

136,845

137,736
73,332
64,404

136,459
72,615
63,844

137,447

137,318

137,300

137,578

137,644

73,150
64,427

73,149

73,263

138,479
74,085

64,489

73,015
64,285

138,095
73,643

138,533

73,132
64,186

137,673
73,124

137,693

72,958

137,505
73,049

137,604

72,903
63,582
44,116

44,653

43,927

44,328

44,458

44,381

34,155

34,695

34,227

34,477

34,546

4,213

4,701

4,330

4,572

2,788

3,118

2,912

1,124

1,279

18,843

Characteristic
Employed, 16 years and over..

64,452

73,915
64,618

64,456

64,548

64,455

64,431

73,488
64,155

44,525

44,476

44,459

44,747

44,659

44,566

44,684

45,152

45,431

34,527

34,634

34,494

34,627

34,648

34,684

34,612

34,993

35,076

35,034

4,711

4,662

4,758

4,610

4,615

4,661

4,498

4,896

4,800

4,880

4,788

3,019

3,107

3,100

3,172

3,069

3,136

3,113

3,063

3,185

3,030

3,226

3,205

1,178

1,266

1,246

1,213

1,255

1,264

1,266

1,296

1,201

1,334

1,356

1,350

1,295

19,014

18,668

19,150

18,546

18,928

18,933

19,703

19,382

19,089

19,482

19,021

18,935

19,110

18,561

4,119

4,596

4,281

4,451

4,589

4,550

4,643

4,498

4,500

4,568

4,404

4,794

4,690

4,782

4,727

2,726

3,052

2,870

2,952

3,028

3,028

3,098

3,012

3,064

3,071

2,989

3,127

2,964

3,153

3,144

1,114

1,264

1,154

1,239

1,234

1,193

1,249

1,236

1,244

1,273

1,191

1,335

1,349

1,353

1,279

18,633

18,628

18,752

18,367

Married men, spouse
Married women, spouse

64,394

Persons a t w ork part tim e1
All industries:
Part time for economic
Slack work or business
Could only find part-time
Part time for noneconomic
Nonagricultural industries:
Part time for economic
Slack work or business
Could only find part-time
Part time for noneconomic
reasons.................................

18,487

18,658

18,353

18,710

18,353

18,580

18,571

18,653

18,930

18,651

19,016

1 Excludes persons "with a job but not at work" during the survey period for such reasons as vacation, illness, or industrial disputes.
No t e

Beginning in January 2003, data reflect revised population controls used in the household survey.


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

125

Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data

6. Selected unemployment indicators, monthly data seasonally adjusted
[Unemployment rates]
A nnual average

2002

Selected categories
2002

2003

Dec.

2003
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

M ay

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Characteristic
Total, 16 years and older................................

5 .8

6.0

6.0

5 .8

8.9

5 .8

6 .0

6.1

6.3

6.2

Both sexes, 16 to 19 years........................

6.1

6.1

6 .0

5.9

16.5

5 .7

17.5

16.7

17.0

17.3

17.6

17.8

18.1

19.0

M en, 20 years and older.............................

18.2

16.9

17.5

17.1

15.7

5 .3

5.6

5 .6

5.5

5 .5

5 .4

5.7

5 .8

6.0

5 .9

W om en, 2 0 years and older.......................

5 .8

5 .8

5 .6

5.1

5 .6

16 1
5.3

5.1

5.2

4 .8

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.2

5.2

5.2

5 .3

5 .2

5.1

5.1

W hite, total1...................................................

5.1

5 .2

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.2

5 .4

5.5

5 .4

5 .4

Both sexes, 16 to 19 years..................

5 .3

5.1

5 .2

14.5

5.0

15.2

14.0

15.0

15.4

15.5

15.3

15.3

16.2

15.7

Men, 16 to 19 years...........................

15.1

15.1

14.3

15.9

14.3

17.1

14.8

15.2

16.3

17.1

17.8

17.4

17.1

17.6

17.9

16.5

W om en, 16 to 19 years.....................

17.6

15.9

16.8

13.1

16.3

13.3

12.8

13.8

13.6

13.1

13.2

13.6

14.8

13.3

M en, 20 years and older.......................

13.7

12.6

12.6

4 .7

11.5

13.1

5.0

5.0

4 .9

4 .8

4 .8

5.0

5.2

5.3

5 .3

5 .3

W om en, 2 0 years and older................

5.0

4 .9

4 .4

5 .0

4 7

4 .4

4 .3

4.2

4 .3

4 .4

4 .3

4 .5

4 .4

4 .4

4 .4

4 .5

4 .4

4 .4

4 .3

Black or African Am erican, total1............

10.2

10.8

11.4

10.5

10.7

10.3

10.8

10.7

11.6

11.1

10.9

11.1

11.4

10.4

10.3

Both sexes, 16 to 19 years..................

2 9 .8

33.0

3 4.4

30.6

3 0.6

33.3

32.9

35.8

38.5

35.1

2 9.8

M en, 16 to 19 years............................

3 2.7

3 7.3

2 8 .9

31.3

2 7.3

36.0

35.3

34.1

38.0

43.1

37.1

41.1

36.5

37.1

W om en, 16 to 19 years.....................

2 7.8

34.2

4 0.9

3 2.5

2 8.3

2 8 .4

30.3

33.7

2 7 .6

23.1

2 4.5

29.3

31.3

40.3

33.4

M en, 2 0 years and older......................

31.5

3 1.4

3 3.2

2 5.7

2 6.5

9 .5

10.3

10.6

10.4

10.3

9 .5

10.4

11.0

11.0

10.3

10.5

W om en, 2 0 years and older................

11.0

10.5

10.1

8 .8

9 3

9.2

9 .7

8 .6

9.1

8 .8

9.1

8.0

9 .6

9.6

9 .7

9.2

9 .8

9.1

9 .7

Hispanic or Latino ethnicity......................

7 .5

7 .7

8.0

7 .9

7 .7

7 .7

7 .6

8.1

8.2

8.1

7.8

7 .5

7 .3

7 .4

Married men, spouse present.................

6 .6

3 .6

3.8

3 .7

3 .6

3 .7

3 .8

3 .8

3.9

4 .3

3 .9

3 .9

Married wom en, spouse present............
Full-time workers.......................................

3 .8

3.8

3 .7

3 .7

3 .3

3 .7

3 .8

3.3

3 .6

3.7

3 .7

3 .7

6.1

6.1

5 .9

6.0

5.9

6.1

6.2

3 .9
6 .4

3 .9

5.9

6 .3

Part-time workers.........................................

3 .9
6.2

3 .9
6 .2

3 .8
6.1

3 8
6.1

5.2

5 8

5.5

5 .3

5 .3

5 .5

5 .5

5 .4

5.6

5 .9

5.5

5 .3

5 .7

5 .5

5.1

5 .3

Less than a high school diplom a...................

8 .4

8 .8

9 .2

8 .7

8.8

8 .6

8 .5

9.1

9 .4

8.8

9.3

8 .7

8.8

8 .5

8.1

High school graduates, no college3.............

5 .3

5.5

5 .4

5.2

5 .4

5.5

5 .7

5.5

5 .7

5.5

5 .4

Som e college or associate deg ree ...............

5 .4

5 .5

5 .4

5*5

4 .5

4 .8

5.0

4 .8

4 .7

4 .8

4 .7

4 .9

4 .9

5.0

4 .7

4 .8

4 .8

4 .8

4 .5

Bachelor's degree and higher4......................

2 .9

3.1

2 .9

3.0

3.0

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3.1

3 .2

3.1

3.1

3 .0

3 9

Educational attainment2

Beginning in 2 00 3, persons who selected this race group only; persons who

3 Includes high school diploma or equivalent.

selected more than one race group are not included. Prior to 2 00 3, persons who
4 Includes persons with bachelor's, master's, professional, and doctoral degrees.

reported more than one race w ere included in the group they identified as the
main race.

NOTE: Beginning in January 2 00 3, data reflect revised population controls used in the

2 Data refer to persons 2 5 years and older.

household survey.

7. Duration of unemployment, monthly data seasonally adjusted
[Numbers in thousands]
W eeks of
unem ploym ent

Annual average
2002

2003

2002

2003

Dec.

Jan.

Feb

Mar.

Apr.

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Less than 5 w eeks...............................

2 ,893

2,785

2,873

2 ,795

2,782

2,788

2 ,815

3,033

2 ,937

2,735

5 to 14 w eeks........................................

2,749

2 ,733

2 ,622

2 ,580

2 ,627

2,612

2,591

2 ,573

2 ,586

2,531

2 ,625

2,617

2 ,787

2 ,698

15 w eeks and over...............................

2,630

2,736

2,585

2,904

2,5 5 6

2 ,450

3,378

3,312

3,175

3,176

3,168

3,318

3,294

3,510

3 ,559

3.561

3,511

15 to 26 weeks..................................

3,478

3,484

1,369

3 ,403

1,442

1,420

1,444

1,292

1,340

1,399

1,380

1,500

1,598

27 w eeks and over...........................

1.561

1,438

1,460

1,448

1,535

1,513

1,936

1,891

1,731

1,884

1,829

1,919

1,914

2,010

1,961

2,001

2 ,073

2,018

2,036

1,890

Mean duration, in w eeks....................

16.6

19.2

18.5

18.5

18.7

18.1

19.4

19.2

19.6

19.3

19.2

Median duration, in w eeks................

19.6

19.4

9.1

20.0

19.6

10.1

9.6

9.7

9.5

9.7

10.1

10.1

11.7

10.1

10.0

10.1

10.3

10.4

10.4

NOTE: Beginning in January 2 00 3, data reflect revised population controls used in the household survey.

126

May

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

2,739

8. Unemployed persons by reason for unemployment, monthly data seasonally adjusted
[Numbers in thousands]
Reason for
unem ploym ent

Annual average
2002

2003

2002

2003

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Nov.

4 ,877

4,7 1 9

Dec.
4 ,618

Job losers1.............................................

4,607

4,838

4 ,839

4,631

4,806

4 ,774

4,851

5,021

4,972

4 ,947

4,939

On temporary layoff.........................

1,124

1,121

1,122

1,094

1,141

1,151

1,112

1,197

1,177

1,173

1,092

1,110

1,097

1,055

1,060

3,847

3,837

3 ,780

3,664

3,558

3,483

3,717

866
2,368

818
2,477

536

641

Job losers1.............................................

55.0

55.1

On temporary layoff.........................

13.4

Not on temporary layoff.................

41.6

12.8
42.4

Not on temporary layoff..................
Job leavers.............................................
New entrants..........................................

3,739

3,824

783

802

890

798

790

836

789

931

783

2,410

818
2,517

778

2,418

2 ,506

2,646

2,522

2 ,530

2 ,518

2 ,440

2,366

589

620

633

635

642

661

650

2,436
684

653

619

694

54.9

55.9

55.5

55.0

56.2

54.3

55.4

55.4

55.6

55.2

54.2

54.6

13.0

13.3

13.4

12.6

13.4

12.9

13.1

12.3

12.5

12.4

12.1

12.5

41.9

42.5

42.1

42.4

42.8

41.5

42.3

43.2

43.1

42.8

42.1

42.0

3,536

3,665

866

825
2,374
605

55.5
12.9
42.6

2,475
534

3,774

3,623

3,716

3,795

4,947

Oct.

P e rc ent o f une m p loye d

Job leavers.............................................

10.3

9.3

9.9

9.8

9.1

9.3

9.3

8.7

9.7

8.9

8.9

9.4

8.9

10.7

9.3

Reentrants.............................................

28.3

28.2

28.4

28.1

28.1

28.0

28.5

28.0

28.9

28.2

28.4

27.4

28.5

28.0

28.0

6.4

7.3

6.1

7.2

6.9

7.2

7.2

7.1

7.0

7.4

7.3

7.7

7.4

7.1

8.2

Job losers1.............................................

3.2

3.3

3.2

3.3

3.3

3.3

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.4

3.3

3.2

3.1

Job leavers............................................

.6

.6

.6

.6

.5

1.7

1.6

1.7

.5
1.7

.5
1.7

1.7

.5
1.7

.6
1.7

1.6

.4

.4

.4

.4

.4

.4

.4

1.8
.4

.5
1.7

.6

1.7

.6
1.7

.6

1.6
.4

.5
1.7

.5

.4

.5

.4

May

June

New entrants..........................................
P ercent o f civilian
lab o r fo rce

New entrants..........................................

.5
.4

' Includes persons who completed temporary jobs.
NO TE: Beginning in January 2003, data reflect revised population controls used in the household survey.

9. Unemployment rates by sex and age, monthly data seasonally adjusted
[Civilian workers]
A nnual average

2003

2002

Sex and age
2002

2003

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Total, 16 years and older....................

5 .8

6.0

6.0

5 .8

5.9

5 .8

6.0

6.1

6 .3

6.2

6.1

6.1

5 .9

5 .7

16 to 2 4 years....................................

12.0

12.4

12.2

12.0

12.0

11.8

12.6

12.9

13.3

12.9

12.4

12.8

12.3

12.1

11.7

15.7

16.1

6.0

16 to 19 years.................................

16.5

17.5

16.7

17.0

17.3

17.6

17.8

18.1

19.0

18.2

17.5

17.1

16 to 17 years.............................

18.8

19.1

17.7

18.3

18.3

17.2

18.9

18.8

21.1

20.3

18.8

19.3

20.2

17.5

18.3

16.1

16.2

17.4

17.3

18.1

17.4

16.8

15.7

16.2

15.2

14.7

14.7

18 to 19 years.............................

15.1

16.4

16.1

16.9

2 0 to 2 4 years.................................

9 .7

10.0

9.9

9 .5

9.5

9.0

10.0

10.4

10.5

10.4

10.2

10.6

10.1

10.4

9 .6

2 5 years and older............................

4 .6

4 .8

4 .9

4 .6

4 .8

4 .8

4 .9

4 .9

5.1

5.0

5 .0

4 .9

4 .9

4 .8

4 .7

2 5 to 5 4 years.............................

4 .8

5.0

5.0

4 .8

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.0

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.0

4 .9

5 5 years and older....................

3.8

4.1

4 .4

4.1

3 .9

3.9

4.1

4 .4

4 .4

4 .2

4.1

4 .0

3 .8

3 .9

3.9

5.9

6 .3

6.2

6.1

6.1

6.1

6 .3

6 .5

6 .7

6 .6

6 .4

6 .4

6 .2

6.2

16 to 2 4 years..................................

12.8

13.4

12.8

12.7

12.7

12.5

13.7

14.1

14.1

14.4

12.9

14.1

13.2

13.4

12.6

16 to 19 years..............................

18.1

19.3

18.1

18.6

19.5

2 0.5

20.2

20.3

19.9

2 0 .4

17.6

19.6

18.7

18.3

17.4

16 to 17 y ears..........................

21.1

20.7

19.4

19.5

19.5

18.5

2 1.3

2 1.5

23.2

2 2.3

2 0.6

22.1

2 0.4

18.3

18.4

18 to 19 years..........................

16.4

18.4

17.6

17.9

19.2

20.7

19.6

19.9

17.9

19.0

15.6

18.2

17.9

18.1

16.9

10.2

10.6

10.3

9.9

9 .6

8.9

10.7

11.3

11.5

11.6

10.7

11.7

10.8

11.2

10.4

4 .7

5.0

5.1

4 .9

5.0

5.0

5.1

5.2

5 .4

5.2

5 .2

5.0

5.0

5.0

4 .7

4 .8

5.2

5.2

5.1

5.1

5.1

5.2

5 .3

5 .4

5 .3

5 .4

5.2

5.2

5.2

4 .9

55 years and older..................

4.1

4 .4

4 .6

4 .4

4 .3

4 .3

4 .6

4 .7

5.3

4 .6

4 .4

4 .2

4 .0

4.1

4 .0

W om en, 16 years and older.............

5.6

5 .7

5 .7

5 .4

5 .6

5 .6

5.6

5.7

5 .9

5 .7

5 .8

5.8

5 .7

5 .5

5 .6

11.1

11.4

11.4

11.2

11.3

11.1

11.4

11.7

12.4

11.3

11.8

11.4

11.3

10.7

10.7

14.9

15.6

15.3

15.4

15.0

14.8

15.5

16.0

18.2

15.9

16.2

15.2

15.4

13.0

14.7

16 to 17 years...........................

16.6

17.5

16.0

17.1

17.1

15.9

16.8

16.3

19.1

18.3

17.0

16.5

20.1

16.6

18.2

18 tO 19 y ears.........................

13.8

14.2

14.7

14.3

13.1

14.1

14.9

16.3

16.8

14.5

15.8

14.1

12.5

11.1

12.2

9.1

9 .3

9.4

9.0

9 .4

9.1

9 .3

9.5

9.5

9.0
4 .7

9 .7

9 .3

9 .6

8.8

4 .7

9 .5
4 .7

4 .7

4 .6

4 .6

4 .9

4 .9

4 .8

5.0

3.8

3 .4

3 .5

3 .5

2 5 years and older.........................
55 years and older1.................

4 .6

4 .6

4 .6

4 .3

4 .5

4 .6

4 .6

4 .6

4 .7

4 .8

4 .8

4 .8

4 .5

4.8

4 .9

4 .7

4.7

4 .9

4 .9

4 .8

3 .6

3.7

3 .8

4.1

3 .3

3.3

3 .4

3 .6

3 .7

4 .2

4 .5

1 D ata are not seasonally adjusted.
NOTE: Beginning in January 2 00 3, data reflect revised population controls used In the household survey.


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

127

Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data

10. Unemployment rates by State, seasonally adjusted
State

Nov.

Oct.

Nov.

2002

2003p

2003p

State

Alabama...........................................
Alaska....................................
Arizona..........................................
Arkansas..........................................
California...................................

5.9
8.2
6.1
5.4
68

5.6
7.3
5.0
6.2
6.7

5.8 Missouri
7.5
48
6.0

Colorado.........................................
Connecticut.....................................
Delaware..........................................
District of Columbia................................
Florida.....................................

5.8
4.6
4.3
6.4
5.3

5.4
4.9
4.0
6.8
4.9

56
5.0
41
6.7
49

Georgia.....................................
Hawaii.......................................
Idaho...............................................
Illinois.................................
Indiana..............................................

5.3
3.9
6.0
6.7
5.0

4.2
4.2
5.3
6.7

4.2
4.1

Iowa..........................................
Kansas.............................................
Kentucky.....................................
Louisiana........................................
Maine........................................

41
5.2
5.5
6.2
4.7

4*5
4.7
5.6
5.5
5.1

Maryland..................................
Massachusetts................................
Michigan.....................................
Minnesota.............................
Mississippi...........................................

4.2
5.4
6.1
4.3
7.0

4.1
5.6

4*2

4.6
5.7

46
5.0

Nov.

Oct.

Nov.

2002

2003p

2003p

5.6

5.3

4.9

5.0
4.4

5.0
4.3
3.6
4.5
4.3
5.5
6.1
6.2

5.4

5.3
7.3
5.2
4.9

s n

6.8

5.9

5.4
4.4

6.3

7.1

6.8

6.5

5.8
6.3
4.9

47
5.6
5.5

4.9

6.2

3 .9

5 5

3.9

3.5

7.0

7.0

6.9
5 .5

Wyoming............................................

4.3

3.9

4 .0

p = preliminary

11. Employment of workers on nonfarm payrolls by State, seasonally adjusted
[In thousands]

______________

S ta te

Alabama.
Alaska....
Arizona...
Arkansas,
California

Nov

O c t.

Nov.

2002

2003p

2003p

2 ,1 6 5 ,9 5 6

2 ,1 6 0 ,7 6 0

2 ,0 9 5 .3 5 4

S ta te

3 26 ,03 3

3 4 6 ,2 1 7

3 4 5 ,28 3

2 ,6 8 3 ,6 9 9

2 ,6 6 4 ,6 6 3

2,656,741

1 ,298,687

1,31 3,9 26

1,31 1,9 26

17,5 02 ,97 8

17,7 22 ,18 9

17,6 72 ,91 9

2 ,4 4 4,1 18

2 ,4 7 7,5 32

2 ,4 8 0 ,8 4 6

1,782,690

1 .7 8 0.7 64

1,78 3,6 25

4 2 0 ,5 8 8

424,221

422 ,89 0

302 ,08 5

3 1 4 ,6 6 5

313,751

8 ,0 8 3 ,9 2 4

8 .0 8 5 .7 6 5

8 ,0 8 0,9 70

Georgia.
Hawaii...
Idaho....
Illinois....
Indiana..

4 ,3 1 5,7 68

4 ,3 9 4 ,9 6 6

4 ,4 0 4,9 82

5 8 1 ,81 6

6 0 8 ,3 8 9

6 0 7 ,56 7

6 8 3 ,41 8

6 88 ,71 0

688 ,96 7

6 ,3 6 8,5 77

6 ,4 7 9,7 55

6 ,4 8 8,3 06

3 ,1 8 2,7 92

3 ,2 0 3 ,2 1 3

3 ,2 0 5,0 35

Iowa.......
Kansas....
Kentucky.
Louisiana.
Maine.....

1,67 6,9 54

1,64 4,5 85

1,63 5,9 87

1,42 5,8 92

1 ,4 7 9,1 07

1,48 0,8 76

1,95 9,7 86

1,99 3,8 35

1 ,991,166

1,99 8,4 53

2 ,0 4 6 ,4 3 2

2 ,0 4 8,0 26

6 8 7 ,2 1 7

696 ,47 0

6 97 ,96 6

2 ,9 0 1 ,6 5 7

2 ,9 2 1 ,3 5 2

2 ,9 2 2,4 49

Colorado...............
Connecticut...........
Delaware...............
District of Columbia.
Florida...................

Maryland.........
Massachusetts.
Michigan.........
Minnesota.......
Mississippi......

3 ,5 0 5,1 84

3,458,091

3 ,4 5 4,3 83

4 ,9 5 6,9 69

5 ,1 4 6,9 54

5 ,1 1 1,0 26

2 ,9 1 8 ,6 4 8

2 ,9 3 3 ,3 6 8

2 ,9 3 2,9 07

1,29 9,4 39

1,32 5,1 15

1,32 2,0 66

Missouri...........
Montana..........
Nebraska.........
Nevada............
New Hampshire.
New Jersey....
New Mexico...
New York.......
North Carolina.
North Dakota....
Ohio.............
Oklahoma.....
Oregon........
Pennsylvania.
Rhode Island.
South Carolina.
South Dakota...
Tennessee......
Texas.............
Utah...............
Vermont......
Virginia........
WashingtonWest Virginia.
Wisconsin.....
Wyoming.

Nov.

O c t.

2002

2003p

2003p

2 ,9 7 4 ,1 6 8

3 ,0 0 1,4 49

2,988,531

4 6 6 ,90 3

4 7 8 ,3 2 4

9 6 2 ,73 6

9 9 0 ,98 9

4 77 ,02 5
9 90 ,16 7

1 ,119,659

1,10 7,5 29

1 ,101,632

709 ,46 0

7 19 ,65 2

717,891

4 ,3 8 4,1 27

4 ,4 3 6 ,7 0 0

4,440,061

884 ,84 0

8 9 7 ,4 8 3

896 ,99 3

9 ,4 4 1,8 27

9 ,3 8 9 ,7 0 8

9 ,4 1 7,1 52

4 ,1 5 7 ,3 2 9

4 ,1 8 4 ,0 4 5

4 ,1 9 1 ,1 4 6

3 47 ,50 8

3 5 5 ,48 8

355 ,39 0

5,80 0,0 00

5 ,8 5 3,4 58

5 ,8 4 7,3 75

1,69 5,6 46

1,709,561

1 ,694,870

1 ,840,200

1,82 4,7 86

1 ,805,057

6 ,3 0 9,9 05

6 ,1 8 4,0 87

6 ,2 0 8,0 22

5 62 ,59 3

5 67 ,34 3

5 6 4 ,82 6

1 ,986,316

2 ,0 4 0 ,4 8 4

2 ,0 2 8,2 36

4 2 4 ,20 3

4 2 3 ,9 0 9

425 ,37 0

2 ,9 3 3 ,6 4 4

2 ,9 1 0,5 52

2 ,9 1 1 ,2 2 6

10,8 12 ,28 4

1 1,0 47 ,52 6

11,0 32 ,04 0

1 ,183,548

1 ,2 2 1,6 44

1 ,217,299

351 ,32 0

3 5 3 ,60 2

353,961

3 ,7 4 0,8 45

3 ,7 9 5 ,5 7 0

3 ,7 9 7 ,7 4 7

3 ,1 2 4,5 82

3 ,1 2 0 ,1 1 5
8 0 3 ,0 0 9

7 9 7 ,11 3

3 ,1 0 8,0 05

3 ,0 8 9,1 20

2 6 9 ,97 6

2 7 6 ,7 6 6

2 7 7 ,3 4 8

NOTE: Som e data in this table may differ from data published elsewhere because of the continual updating of the data base.

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

3 ,1 2 7,6 68

793 ,66 8
3 ,0 2 5,8 33

p = preliminary.

128

Nov.

12. Employment of workers on nonfarm payrolls by industry, monthly data seasonally adjusted
[In thousands]

TO TAL NO NFAR M .................
TO TAL PRIVATE.........................
G O O DS-PRO DUCING .....................

2003

2002

Annual average
Industry

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct

Nov.p

Dec.p

2002

2003

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

130,376
108.886
22,619

130,045
108.544
22,064

130,198
108.642
22,323

130,356
108.780
22,288

130,235
108.647
22,191

130,084
108.537
22,159

130,062 129,986 129,903 129,846 129,881 129,980 130,380 130,123 130,124
108.536 108.502 108.427 108.388 108.411 108.524 108.607 108.651 108.656
22,119 22,098 22,061 22,001 21,982 21,978 21,966 21,954 21,942

581
69.1
511.9
122.5
212.1
74.9
177.2
6,732
1.583.9
929.9
4.217.9
15,306
10.799
9,517
6.551
556.8
510.9
510.9
1.547.8
1.237.4

566
64.8
501.2
124.9
208.1
72.6
168.2
6,797
1.612.8
909.8
4.274.4
14,701
10.306
9,093
6.236
544.7
481.9
510.9
1.480.4
1.179.1

572
67.9
503.6
121.6
208.1
73.3
173.9
6,731
1.595.3
915.3
4.220.7
15,020
10.595
9,316
6.417
548.1
510.8
499.7
1.516.0
1.212.4

568
67.1
500.5
122.1
206.9
72.2
171.5
6,738
1.597.7
916.8
4.223.8
14,982
10.564
9,282
6.392
549.2
507.9
500.1
1.508.0
1.206.5

569
66.6
502.1
121.8
206.3
72.3
174.0
6,700
1.594.4
912.5
4.193.2
14,922
10.516
9,236
6.355
548.5
505.9
496.5
1.497.5
1.201.6

565
64.6
500.4
122.9
206.9
72.3
170.6
6,720
1.605.6
895.0
4.219.5
14,874
10.447
9,203
6.314
544.4
506.7
494.7
1.495.3
1.194.8

564
64.3
499.8
124.4
207.5
72.7
167.9
6,760
1.615.8
898.4
4.245.5
14,795
10.379
9,147
6.267
546.0
504.8
491.1
1.489.4
1.187.4

566
64.8
501.4
125.2
208.2
72.6
168.0
6,786
1.615.0
902.8
4.267.8
14,746
10.342
9,114
6.244
544.9
505.1
486.4
1.482.3
1.181.2

569
65.7
502.8
125.7
208.9
73.2
168.2
6,800
1.609.7
905.8
4.284.1
14,692
10.299
9,081
6.221
541.0
505.0
482.0
1476. 4
1.175.8

566
64.0
502.1
125.3
209.6
73.7
167.2
6,804
1.606.7
910.8
4.286.3
14,631
10.257
9,034
6.188
540.8
501.1
478.5
1.470.7
1.171.9

565
63.6
501.1
125.0
209.1
72.9
167.0
6,825
1.610.9
913.9
4.300.3
14,592
10.229
9,018
6.182
538.2
501.4
475.9
1.469.2
1.168.0

564
63.7
499.9
125.4
207.5
71.5
167.0
6,841
1.620.1
915.8
4.305.5
14,573
10.207
9,010
6.169
542.1
500.3
472.4
1.465.8
1.168.1

1.521.3

1.407.5

1.462.2

1.448.5

1.438.2

1.432.1

1.423.6

1.413.0

1.407.7

1.398.1

1.392.5

226.5
173.3

223.6
171.9

221.9
170.9

Natural resources and
m ining..............................................

Logging.............................
Mining..................................
Oil amd gas extraction..........
Minina. exceDt oil and aas1....
Support activities for mining....
C onstruction..................................

Construction of buildinas.......
Heaw and civil enaineerina....
SDecialitv trade contractors....
M anufacturing................................

Production workers...........
Durable g oods.............................

Production workers...........
Wood products....................
Nonmetallic mineral products
Primary metals.....................
Fabricated metal products.....
Machinery...........................
Computer and electronic
nrnrli irts1
Computer and peripheral
equipment........................
Communications equipment..
Semiconductors and
electronic components.......
Electronic instruments.........
Electrical equipment and

6,845
1.622.4
913.3
4.309.7
14,556
10.195
9,004
6.165
544.2
499.7
470.6
1.468.6
1.165.1

565
64.8
500.3
126.0
207.9
72.2
166.4
6,859
1.621.2
917.9
4.320.1
14,530
10.176
9,001
6.164
547.2
500.1
469
1.470.4
1.166.9

565
63.7
501.3
126.0
207.5
72.4
167.8
6,873
1.628.0
919.4
4.325.3
14,504
10,154
8,993
6.156
547.5
500
470.1
1.471.9
1.163.2

1.389.5

1.384.3

1.382.2

1.377.2

221.6
170.5

218.8
170.4

217.5
170.8

216.3
169.6

565
64.2
500.4
125.9
208.1
72.2
166.4

249.8
190.9

224.9
173.2

241.0
180.1

234.4
177.6

230.9
177.8

229.8
176.5

230.5
175.5

226.7
174.4

531.4
450.6

484.6
432.3

503.7
441.3

498.8
441.4

496.0
438.7

494.1
436.5

492.0
433.5

487.7
431.5

485.1
429.9

480.9
429.0

479.5
429.0

477.6
429.3

474.8
429.2

474.9
429.0

473.7
428.1

498.9
1,828.5

468.2
1,775.9

485.2
1,804.7

482.4
1,806.5

479.8
1,800.7

477.5
1,792.5

474.8
1,771.9

469.3
1,777.6

467.7
1,774.3

465.9
1,760.2

462.1
1,767.6

461.1
1,768.1

460.8
1,768.2

461.2
1,763.2

461.6
1,761.5

604.6
691.9
5,789
4,249
1,525.1

577.3
675.0
5,608
4,080
1,518.8

589.1
687.9
5,704
4,178
1,518.5

587.0
686.0
5,700
4,172
1,517.1

582.9
684.5
5,686
4,161
1,514.7

582.0
683.0
5,671
4,133
1,513.3

576.4
682.0
5,648
4,112
1,512.3

576.4
677.8
5,632
4,098
1,512.4

574.1
676.6
5,611
4,078
1,517.5

574.2
673.0
5,597
4,069
1,520.9

572.7
670.4
5,574
4,047
1,521.7

573.7
668.8
5,563
4,038
1,522.7

574.5
667.2
5,552
4,030
1,523.7

575.5
665.7
5,529
4,012
1,513.7

576.2
664.1
5,511
3,998
1,511.3

205.4
293.2
196.2
357.6
49.9
549.8

194.5
267.7
185.0
308.3
44.1
529.7

200.2
284.9
193.7
337.2
47.3
541.5

199.0
285.2
191.7
331.8
46.7
539.7

198.2
283.7
192.6
325.9
46.0
538.5

196.1
281.6
192.6
322.1
45.8
535.1

194.6
277.8
190.6
318.4
44.8
534.1

195.4
272.7
188.7
313.2
44.4
531.9

194.5
270.1
186.4
307.8
43.3
530.6

194.4
264.7
184.2
301.2
43.5
527.3

194.8
259.6
178.4
299.0
43.1
526.4

193.3
258.3
179.7
296.5
43.1
525.0

193.4
255.4
179.2
296.3
42.9
523.9

192.0
253.4
179.1
296.0
42.9
521.9

191.0
250.2
178.8
293.4
42.8
519.8

Petroleum and coal products..
Chemicals..........................
Plastics and rubber products..

709.9
119.1
929.5
853.5

690.7
117.8
916.4
834.6

689.8
119.7
925.8
845.4

694.5
120.4
926.0
848.0

694.0
120.4
924.2
847.4

696.4
120.3
922.5
845.1

694.8
119.2
921.7
839.2

695.3
119.3
920.6
837.7

694.1
118.4
916.5
831.7

692.2
118.0
917.7
833.3

690.C
116.9
914.8
829.3

687.7
116.0
912.5
828.6

684.5
115.5
909.8
826.4

682.8
115.0
907.1
825.1

6/8. ò
114.8
908.0
822.7

SE RVICE-PRO VIDING ...................

107,757

107,981

107,875

108,068

108,044

107,925

86,267

86,480

86,319

86,492

86,456

86,378

86,417

86,404

86,366

86,387

86,429

86,546

86,641

86,697

86,714

25,493
5,641.0
3,007.2
2,015.1

25,266
5,570.0
2,947.4
2,947.4

25,378
5,603.9
2,978.7
2,009.6

25,376
5,596.0
2,967.9
2,011.5

25,346
5,596.2
2,967.0
2,010.7

25,338
5,594.0
2,961.2
2,013.6

25,321
5,590.8
2,957.7
2,013.3

25,282
5,582.0
2,952.2
2,009.9

25,211
25,238
5,570.6 55,601.0
2,947.5 2,940.4
2,004.1 2,001.4

25,217
5,550.0
2,934.5
1,997.7

25,243
5,551.2
2,932.7
1,995.9

25,256
5,551.3
2,934.4
1,994.4

25,236
5,553.4
2,940.5
1,989.7

25,201
5,565.3
2,945.6
1,995.4

Transportation equipment.....
Furniture and related
Miscellaneous manufacturing
Nondurable goods.....................

Production workers...........
Food manufacturing.............
Beverages and tobacco
products...........................
Textile mills.........................
Textile product mills.............
Leather and allied products...
Paper and paper products.....
Printing and related support

107,943 107,888 107,842 107,845 107,899 108,002 108,114 108,169 108,182

PRIVATE SERVICEPROVIDING ................................
Trade, transportation,

Nondurable goods...............
Electronic markets and
Retail tra de..................................

623.2
624.3
622.6
622.5
617.8
618.Í
619.C
619.8
619.9
619.2
618.5
615.6
616.6
620.1
618.8
15.047.2 14.975.9 15.005.6 15.009.2 14.987.3 14.994.7 14.999.6 14.979.0 14.964.2 14.958.0 14.975.1 14.986.9 14.996.1 14.968.6 14.930.6

Motor vehicles and parts
Automobile dealers............
Furniture and home
furnishings stores..............
Electronics and appliance
stores...............................

1,884.6
1,249.5

1,884.6
1,248.6

1,884.0
1,247.2

1,885.8
1,247.1

541.6

544.1

545.4

548.9

551.2

519.6

520.4

521.5

523.6

525.4

1,879.2
1,250.4

1,880.7
1,246.3

1,878.9
1,249.6

1,876.8
1,245.5

1,874.9
1,242.1

1,875.5
1,241.5

1,875.4
1,242.0

1,879.2
1,244.3

1,877.9
1,246.0

1,883.2
1,249.0

1,880.5
1,248.1

539.9

546.6

548.4

549.9

552.0

547.6

549.2

545.4

546.5

543.9

528.81

523.31

529.8

531.6

526.9

524.8

525.2

523.8

522.9

519.6

See notes at end of table.


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

129

Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data

12. Continued—Employment of workers on nonfarm payrolls by industry, monthly data seasonally adjusted
[In thousands]

_______________

Industry

Building material and garden
supply stores.....................
Food and beverage stores....
Health and personal care
stores..............................
Gasoline stations.................
Clothing and clothing
accessories stores............
Sporting goods, hobby,
book, and music stores.......
General merchandise storesl.
Department stores.............
Miscellaneous store retailers..
Nonstore retailers................
Transportation and
w arehousing.............................

Air transportation................
Rail transportation...............
Water transportation............
Truck transportation.............
Transit and ground passenger
transportation....................
Pipeline transportation..........
Scenic and sightseeing
transportation....................
Support activities for
transportation....................
Couriers and messengers.....
Warehousing and storage
Utilities............................................
Inform ation...................................

Publishing industries, except
Internet.............................
Motion picture and sound
recording industries............
Broadcasting, except Internet..
Internet publishing and
broadcasting......................
Telecommunications............
ISPs, search portals, and
data processing.................
Other information services.....
Financial activities.......................

Finance and insurance...........
Monetary authorities—
central bank.......................
Credit intermediation and
relator! antivitias1
Depository credit
intormeHiatinn1
Commercial bankino..........
Securities, commodity
contracts, investments........
Insurance carriers and
related activities.................
Funds, trusts, and other
financial vehicles................
Real estate and rental
and leasing.........................
Real estate..........................
Rental and leasing services....
Lessors of nonfinancial
intangible assets................

Annual average

2002

2003

2002

2003

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.p

Dec.p

1,179.1
2,871.6

1,197.6
2,808.2

1,183.9
2,833.5

1,190.6
2,827.0

1,183.6
2,820.2

1,181.8
2,822.9

1,189.0
2,822.0

1,188.5
2,822.5

1,194.2
2,812.8

1,196.5
2,801.7

1,203.3
2,798.0

1,210.0
2,796.7

1,209.3
2,806.7

1,209.5
2,806.6

1,207.9
2,779.1

946.6
903.6

967.5
904.3

952.5
904.2

956.8
905.2

960.1
905.0

962.6
907.1

966.2
910.9

965.7
908.8

967.9
908.6

965.8
904.0

965.9
907.1

969.4
903.9

973.6
899.9

977.7
899.0

975.0
892.7

1,307.8

1,280.6

1,308.5

1,291.2

1,279.7

1,282.8

1,288.3

1,280.7

1,277.5

1,277.6

1,278.9

1,278.2

1,284.0

1,279.3

1,278.5

660.1
2,820.7
1,709.8
962.5
447.3

642.0
2,840.6
1,701.1
943.5
441.0

637.8
2,827.6
1,727.5
954.6
445.9

653.5
2,834.2
1,720.9
952.4
440.0

652.6
2,838.8
1,718.6
949.1
444.4

650.8
2,846 4
1,710.6
949.8
442.6

646.3
2,835.8
1,695.5
948.6
442.7

645.2
2,833.1
1,690.3
944.1
442.0

642.0
2,831.5
1,689.9
941.8
440.6

640.8
2,838.9
1,690.3
942.5
443.5

640.6
2,857.7
1,703.6
941.0
440.6

640.3
2,859.1
1,704.1
941.0
439.2

638.7
2,852.9
1,704.1
940.7
439.9

636.9
2,843.4
1,701.7
939.8
439.9

630.0
2,830.9
1,700.7
930.5
443.6

4,205.3
559.3
218.1
51.6
1,339.1

4,127.0
514.7
216.3
49.7
1,328.3

4,170.7
553.9
216.3
50.3
1,331.9

4,174.6
551.3
215.7
50.6
1,327.6

4,166.7
545.8
215.3
50.5
1,324.3

4,153.8
537.3
215.3
50.1
1,328.1

4,136.3
525.6
216.5
49.9
1,324.4

4,128.5
516.4
216.1
50.3
1,324.4

4,113.9
510.0
217.2
50.1
1,326.9

4,103.7
502.4
217.1
50.0
1,324.0

4,101.2
500.0
214.8
49.9
1,331.0

4,114.1
501.4
216.8
48.6
1,330.1

4,116.7
498.4
216.4
49.1
1,332.1

4,122.0
500.4
216.2
48.7
1,334.1

4,112.3
502.3
215.6
48.9
1,334.0

371.5
41.5

353.6
39.5

360.8
40.2

358.0
40.0

357.5
39.8

351.9
40.2

353.0
40.3

350.4
40.3

345.4
39.7

347.4
39.5

348.3
38.9

355.3
39.1

358.3
38.9

359.0
39.0

358.7
38.7

25.9

28.9

25.6

24.0

25.6

27.1

28.5

29.1

29.9

29.5

30.0

29.7

29.9

30.1

30.6

526.7
558.0
513.6
599.8
3,420

523.1
558.6
514.3
592.7
3,286

531.2
545.0
515.5
597.3
3,353

527.7
561.4
518.3
596.4
3,328

527.9
558.9
521.1
595.9
3,308

525.9
563.3
514.6
595.3
3,305

522.7
561.6
513.8
594.6
3,303

527.8
560.8
512.9
592.3
3,294

523.2
560.9
510.6
589.5
3,285

520.2
560.6
513.0
589.6
3,278

519.1
557.8
511.4
590.8
3,267

521.8
557.3
514.0
591.0
3,270

520.7
556.4
516.5
592.3
3,266

520.3
556.7
517.5
592.0
3,265

520.4
552.5
510.6
592.4
3,270

969.4

945.2

962.2

954.0

955.3

953.5

950.8

947.2

945.1

941.4

941.5

939.2

939.5

939.9

939.8

387.1
333.8

372.9
324.4

381.6
332.1

377.8
327.2

367.0
325.0

369.3
325.7

371.1
325.0

373.4
324.4

371.7
324.2

373.7
324.1

367.2
322.9

373.3
325.0

373.1
323.2

375.2
323.0

378.4
323.0

34.8
1,200.9

33.9
1,134.7

32.9
1,162.5

33.0
1,158.7

33.3
1,151.4

33 6
1,146.9

33.8
1,145.0

33.5
1,138.1

34.0
1,132.5

34.5
1,127.8

34.2
1,125.7

34.3
1,125.0

34.2
1,123.3

34.6
1,127.3

34.8
1,125.6

447.4
46.6
7,843
5,814.9

429.0
45.6
7,579
5,910.8

435.8
45.8
7,889
5,861.0

430.3
46.5
7,902
5,872.4

429.5
46.3
7,916
5,885.2

430.4
46.0
7,930
5,894.8

431.3
46.0
7,956
5,912.0

431.4
45.5
7,971
5,923.2

432.1
45.1
7,972
5,923.3

430.9
45.1
7,981
5,928.6

429.7
45.5
7,980
5,924.4

427.4
45.7
7,986
5,933.2

426.4
46.0
7,971
5,916.3

424.2
45.9
7,964
5,908.1

423.0
45.8
7,952
5,891.5

23.1

22.1

22.7

22.7

22.3

22.3

22.2

22.2

22.1

22.1

22.0

22.0

21.9

21.9

21.8

2.682.3

2.771.3

2.729.1

2.734.9

2,741.9

2.752.3

2.765.8

2.781.8

2.783.5

2.789.4

2.788.8

2.791.3

2,781.3

2.769.4

2.752.8

1.738.2
1,284.7

1.767.5
1.301.1

1.751.3
1.292.8

1.755.1
1,296.1

1.757.1
1,297.5

1.762.3
1,300.4

1.764.4
1,300.6

1.767.9
1,302.4

1.768.5
1,302.3

1.771.5
1,304.1

1.772.4
1,304.8

1.773.8
1,304.1

1.774.5
1,303.3

1.770.4
1,298.5

1.767.8
1.294.7

800.8

800.4

799.4

802.3

803.1

799.3

798.8

796.9

796.7

796.6

794.9

799.0

800.7

806.6

811.9

2,223.1

2,234.6

2,225.7

2,228.5

2,233.9

2,236.8

2,241.8

2,239.4

2,238.9

1,138.1

2,237.1

2,238.9

2,231.2

2,229.2

2,223.1

85.6

82.5

84.1

84.0

84.0

84.1

83.4

82.9

82.1

82.4

81.6

82.0

81.2

81.0

81.9

2,027.8
1,347.7
652.3

2,047.7
1,367.6
651.0

2,028.3
1,355.7
645.8

2,029.2
1,353.8
648.7

2,030.6
1,356.9
646.7

2,034.7
1,359.9
647.0

2,044.2
1,366.4
649.4

2,047.8
1,367.3
651.4

2,048.6
1,365.2
654.2

2,052.7
1,368.9
654.6

2,055.2
1,371.5
654.2

2,052.7
1,372.4
650.5

2,054.5
1,373.6
650.5

2,055.5
1,374.9
650.2

2,060.1
1,377.8
651.2

27.8

29.1

26.8

26.7

27.0

27.8

28.4

29.2

29.2

29.2

29.5

29.8

30.4

30.4

31.1

16,010

16,063

15,972

16,015

16,043

15,980

15,989

16,002

16,006

16,063

16,054

16,107

16,142

16,179

16,224

6,715.0
1,111.8

6,716.9
1,120.2

6,745.3
1,119.8

6,790.5
1,124.1

6,758.4
1,125.7

6,742.2
1,127.5

6,698.1
1,125.6

6,674.9
1,125.2

6,661.6
1,122.8

6,657.3
1,121.9

6,685.4
1,124.9

6,714.0
1,128.4

6,736.5
1,128.3

6,754.3
1,127.1

867.1

6,715.1
1,125.0
879.2
879.2

872.6

910.6

941.2

913.5

899.3

866.0

848.9

847.9

854.3

856.1

868.3

880.2

891.7

1,251.1

1,244.2

1,252.5

1,238.6

1,247.9

1,246.0

1,242.9

1,241.4

1,236.0

1,240.91 1,238.1

1,247.2

1,247.8

1,252.3

1,253.0

Professional and business
services..........................................

Professional and technical
services1.............................
Legal services....................
Accounting and bookkeeping
services..........................
Architectural and engineering
services...........................
See notes at end of table.

130

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

12. Continued—Employment ot workers on nonfarm payrolls by industry, monthly data seasonally adjusted
[In thousands]
Industry

Computer systems design
and related services..........
Management and technical
consulting services...........
Management of companies
and enterprises....................
Administrative and waste
services..............................
Administrative and suDDort
QArvirtA«1
Fm nlo\/m Ant sarvinAQ1

TemDorarv heb services....
Business suooort services....
Services to buildinas
and dwellinas..................
Waste management and
remediation services...........

___________________________
Annual average

2003

2002

2002

2003

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.p

Dec.p

1,162.7

1,139.5

1,142.7

1,142.8

1,144.3

1,144.5

1,151.9

1,146.6

1,142.0

1,130.6

1,125.4

1,133.4

1,135.8

1,137.8

1,135.3

739.7

746.6

746.6

750.2

731.8

738.0

739.8

734.8

736.2

735.5

732.9

734.0

731.8

735.0

736.1

1,711.1

1,693.4

1,694.2

1,696.8

1,697.1

1,697.9

1,697.0

1,696.0

1,690.8

1,698.5

1,690.8

1,691.7

1,688.8

1,688.8

1,685.2

7,583.8

7,654.8

7,561.0

7,572.9

7,555.7

7,523.3

7,549.4

7,608.3

7,639.8

7,702.5

7,706.1

7,729.6

7,738.8

7,753.2

7,784.9

7.266.8
3.248.8
2.185.7
757.0

7.338.2
3.343.2
2.214.7
748.8

7.244.9
3.259.2
2.159.4
757.0

7.255.5
3.292.7
2.170.2
746.0

7.239.9
3.287.8
2.151.6
743.8

7.207.8
3.245.9
2,135.9
746.5

7.230.5
3.242.2
2.131.2
748.1

7.288.6
3.291.7
2.177.6
747.9

7.323.0
3.318.3
2.207.9
747.8

7.380.3
3.374.8
2.226.6
745.0

7.389.2
3.373.7
2.236.6
750.4

7.413.1
3.394.5
2.261.1
754.3

7.423.7
3.415.5
2.271.9
752.7

7.440.6
3.439.0
2.295.0
749.9

7.471.7
3.474.9
2.325.0
747.2

1.597.3

1.598.2

1.591.7

1.585.8

1.580.4

1.576.4

1.587.4

1.596.3

1.601.8

1.609.9

1.613.5

1.610.3

1.603.3

1.601.7

1.603.0

316.9

316.6

316.1

317.4

315.8

315.5

318.9

319.7

316.8

322.2

316.9

316.5

315.1

312.6

313.2

16,184
2,650.6

16,526
2,712.0

16,373
2,695.1

16,405
2,700.0

16,430
2,707.4

16,452
2,711.5

16,483
2,708.8

16,509
2,718.1

16,503
2,689.7

16,487
2,676.7

16,541
2,699.8

16,570
2,715.6

16,625
2,738.7

16,653
2,748.2

16,674
2,755.4

Educational and health
services........................................

Educational services..............
Health care and social
assistance..........................
Ambulatorv health care
Offices of physicians..........
Outpatient care centers.......
Home health care services....
Hospitals............................
Nursina and residential
Nursina care facilities.........
Child day care services.......
Leisure and hospitality..............

Arts, entertainment,
and recreation.....................
Performing arts and
spectator sports................
Museums, historical sites,
zoos, and parks.................
Amusements, gambling, and
recreation.........................
Accommodations and
food services......................
Accommodations................
Food services and drinking
Other services................................

Repair and maintenance......
Personal and laundry services
Membership associations and
organizations....................

13,533.2 13,813.9 13,677.5 13,704.5 13,722.6 13,740.5 13,774.2 13,790.7 13,813.2 13,810.0 13,840.8 13,854.1 13,855.8 13,904.7 13,918.6

412.2
693.0
4,190.4

4,718.5
2,023.4
412.0
694.2
4,197.8

4,727.6
2,031.5
411.8
693.0
4,204.7

4,739.1
2,037.4
412.1
698.6
4,210.9

4,753.7
2,041.7
412.8
702.9
4,214.0

4,764.8
2,045.9
413.1
705.3
4,218.1

4,777.4
2,050.2
414.7
709.0
4,227.0

4,781.6
2,052.7
412.9
711.1
4,226.8

4,791.7
2,056.6
413.7
711.8
4,235.2

4,791.7
2,056.9
413.7
711.3
4,239.5

4,809.2
2,068.3
414.1
714.0
4,242.5

4,816.6
2,072.6
416.1
712.7
4,249.2

4,822.6
2,078.6
415.2
714.7
4,252.4

2,787.8
1.585.6
2,024.8
729.6
12,062

2,766.1
1.579.2
2,008.5
725.2
12,019

2,770.1
1.582.0
2,018.1
727.1
12,132

2,770.8
1.582.5
2,019.5
729.0
12,084

2,776.4
1.582.7
2,014.1
724.5
12,050

2,784.4
1.586.2
2,022.1

724.9
12,043

2,787.9
1.587.0
2,019.9
724.9
12,026

2,790.7
1.589.6
2,018.1
722.7
12,039

2,787.2
1.586.0
2,014.4
759.3
12,051

2,789.7
1.538.8
2,024.2
732.4
12,051

2,794.4
1.586.9
2,028.5
731.2
12,056

2,798.3
1,587.6
2,035.8
736
12,071

2,800.1
1.588.0
2,038.8
737
12,091

2,802.0
1.586.4
2,041.6
737.4
12,087

1,778.0

1,769.3

1,817.8

1,835.6

1,809.5

1,781.8

1,764.8

1,759.2

1,758.4

1,763.8

1,759.8

1,759.1

1,759.9

1,759.4

1,758.5

357.9

350.6

367.2

358.7

358.4

359.0

356.7

348.8

346.5

347.4

347.3

351.6

351.1

349.1

349.5

112.5

109.9

110.5

111.6

111.2

109.9

108.4

109.8

109.8

110.0

109.8

109.1

109.8

110.2

109.9

1,339.9

1,312.9

1,299.7

1,300.6

1,302.1

1,306.4

1,302.7

1,298.4

1,299.0

1,300.1

1,299.1

4,633.4
1,982.6
409.7
675.1
4,153.1

4,775.0
2,051.2
413.4
707.0
4,226.3

4,712.5

2,743.2
1.573.7
2,003.5
734.2
11,969

1,307.6

1,308.9

2,022.1

1,340.1

1,365.3

10,191.2 10,292.5 10,200.8 10,296.1 10,274.8 10,267.7 10,278.6 10,266.7 10,280.4 10,286.9 10,290.8 10,296.7 10,310.7 10,331.6 10,328.0
1,779.4 1,775.4 1,805.2 1,812.0 1,801.7 1,788.4 1,769.0 1,763.6 1,769.1 1,778.6 1,769.1 1,754.7 1,751.8 1,765.9 1,768.5
8,411.7
5,348
1,240.6
1,246.7

8,517.1
5,319
1,216.5
1,225.4

8,395.6
5,335
1,224.3
1,232.7

8,484.1
5,334
1,218.6
1,235.6

8,473.1
5,329
1,215.3
1,234.8

8,479.3
5,323
1,213.8
1,229.5

8,509.6
5,322
1,215.6
1,227.0

8,503.1
5,320
1,215.1
1,226.3

8,511.3
5,323
1,218.6
1,225.0

8,508.3
5,316
1,219.5
1,224.6

8,521.7
5,319
1,222.3
1,223.5

8,542.0
5,314
1,219.7
1,219.7

8,558.9
5,310
1,215.3
1,220.3

8,565.7
5,309
1,210.7
1,221.4

8,559.5
5,306
1,206.8
1,217.0

2,860.7
21,489
2,767

2,876.9
21,500
2,755

2,878.2
21,556
2,778

2,879.4
21,576
2,786

2,879.0
21,588
2,791

2,880.0
21,547
2,789

2,879.1
21,526
2,769

2,878.7
21,484
2,761

2,879.5
21,476
2,749

2,872.1
21,458
2,747

2,872.7
21,470
2,745

2,874.8
21,456
2,742

2,874.0
21,473
2,730

2,876.6
21,472
2,720

2,882.0
21,468
2,710

1,922.5
844.8
5,006
2,218.8
2,787.4
13,716
7,657.2
6,058.5

1,938.4
816.5
4,949
2,195.3
2,753.9
13,796
7,706.7
6,089.5

1,956.4
821.7
4,984
2,202.5
2,781.0
13,794
7,698.1
6,095.8

1,960.3
825.3
4,974
2,196.8
2,777.3
13,816
7,708.5
6,107.6

1,966.2
824.8
4,979
2,205.1
2,773.4
13,818
7,712.4
6,105.7

1,964.8
823.9
4,958
2,188.7
2,769.7
13,800
7,693.6
6,106.5

1.946.C
823.0
4,952
2,186.5
2,765.3
13,805
7,703.5
6,101.1

1.937.C
823.6
4,941
2,180.8
2,759.9
13,782
7,689.1
6,092.6

1,928.2
821.1
4,925
2,174.3
2,751.1
13,802
7,718.7
6,083.5

1,928.S
817.7
4,920
2,175.5
2,744.7
13,791
7,723.5
6,067.2

1,929.5
815.8
4,928
2,186.6
2,741.6
13,797
7,735.1
6,061.9

1,929.6
812.3
4,948
2,203-c
2,744.3
13,766
7,682.6
6,083.8

1,919.5
810.3
4,952
2,208.2
2,743.4
13,791
7,697.2
6,093.4

1,913.:
807.0
4,954
2,212.1
2,742.0
13,798
7,697.9
6,099.9

1,913.4
796.4
4,951
2,209.6
2,740.9
13,807
7,704.5
6,102.0

Federal, except U.S. Postal
State..................................
Other State government.....
Other local government......

' Includes other industries not shown separately,
p = preliminary.
NOTE: Data reflect the conversion to the 2002 version of the North American industry


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Classification System (NAICS), replacing the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system.
NAics-based data by industry are not comparable with sic-based data. See "Notes on the
data" for a description of the most recent benchmark revision, preliminary.

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

131

Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data

13. Average weekly hours of production or nonsupervisory workers1 on private nonfarm payrolls, by industry, monthly
data seasonally adjusted
A n n u a l a v e ra g e

2002

2003

In d u s try
2002

TOTAL PRIVATE..................................

2003

Dec.

Jan.

M a r.

A p r.

M ay

June

J u ly

Aug.

S e p t.

O c t.

N o v .p

D e c .p

33.9

33.7

39.9

40.1

40.0

43.7

43.8

43.8

43.6

38.6

38.4

38.4

38.4

38.3

40.1
4.1

40.2
4.1

40.5
4.2

40.6
4.3

40.8
4.5

40.7
4.6

40.7
4.1
40.3
42.2
42.0
40.5
40.9
40.5
41.0
41.4
38.9
38.6

40.5
4.1
40.7
41.6
41.7
40.5
40.3
40.5
40.4
41.3
38.9
38.4

40.5
4.2
40.4
42.1
41.9
40.5
40.7
41.1
40.6
40.7
39.1
38.2

40.8
4.3
40.4
41.9
42.2
40.7
41.0
40.6
40.6
42.0
39.3
38.4

41.0
4.5
40.8
42.2
42.4
40.9
41.0
40.6
40.9
42.0
39.3
38.3

41.2
4.6
41.2
42.4
42.8
41.0
41.3
40.7
40.8
42.3
39.6
38.9

41.2
4.8
40.9
42.4
42.8
40.8
41.4
40.4
41.1
42.7
39.8
38.5

39.7
4.0
39.3
39.0
38.4
39.0
35.4
39.3
41.4

39.7
3.9
39.4
39.0
38.6
39.1
35.0
38.8
41.4

39.4
4.0
39.0
38.5
37.7
39.8
34.6
39.8
41.2

39.7
3.9
39.3
38.8
38.7
39.9
34.7
39.0
41.2

39.9
.4.1
39.4
39.3
39.1
40.6
35.2
38.6
41.2

40.0
4.1
39.4
39.0
39.3
40.3
35.8
39.3
41.6

40.2
4.3
39.4
39.9
39.9
40.2
36.0
39.5
41.8

40.0
4.2
39.3
38.7
39.7
39.8
35.7
40.0
41.8

38.0
44.3
42.4
40.0

37.9
44.1
42.2
40.3

38.1
44.1
42.2
40.1

38.0
43.9
42.1
40.0

38.0
44.4
42.3
40.2

38.2
44.2
42.3
40.5

38.6
45.0
42.1
40.7

38.5
45.9
42.7
40.7

38.3
44.6
42.4
40.8

32.5

32.4

32.4

32.4

32.3

32.4

32.4

32.4

32.5

32.3

33.4
37.7
30.7
36.7
41.2
36.2
35.6

33.4
37.8
30.9
36.8
41.4
36.3
35.6

33.4
37.8
30.8
36.5
41.0
36.2
35.5

33.4
37.8
30.8
36.6
40.9
36.4
35.6

33.4
37.8
30.8
36.6
41.0
36.4
35.5

33.4
37.8
30.6
36.9
40.9
36.4
35.5

33.5
37.9
30.8
36.9
40.9
36.3
35.5

33.6
37.9
30.9
36.9
40.5
36.2
35.4

33.6
38.1
30.9
37.1
41.0
36.3
35.5

33.6
38.0
30.9
37.1
41.1
36.5
35.5

33.4
37.8
30.7
36.6
40.6
36.3
35.3

34.3
32.5
25.6
31.9

34.2
32.5
25.7
31.9

34.0
32.5
25.6
31.8

34.1
32.5
25.6
31.8

34.1
32.5
25.5
31.8

34.0
32.5
25.3
31.7

33.9
32.7
25.4
31.7

34.0
32.5
25.6
31.7

34.0
32.5
25.6
31.7

34.1
32.7
25.7
31.7

33.8
32.6
25.6
31.5

33.9

33.8

33.8

33.8

33.7

33.8

33.7

33.7

33.7

33.6

33.7

33.7

33.8

GOODS-PRODUCING..............................

39.9

39.8

39.8

40.0

39.6

39.9

39.5

39.7

39.8

39.6

39.8

39.9

Natural resources and mining.............

43.2

43.6

43.0

43.1

43.3

44.2

43.4

43.8

43.7

43.2

43.7

Construction...........................................

38.4

38.4

38.2

38.9

37.6

38.7

37.9

38.5

38.4

38.3

Manufacturing........................................

Overtime hours..............................

40.5
4.2

40.4
4.2

40.5
4.3

40.4
4.4

40.4
4.3

40.4
4.1

40.1
4.0

40.2
4.1

40.3
4.0

Durable goods..................................
Overtime hours..............................
Wood products................................
Nonmetallic mineral products...........
Primary metals.................................
Fabricated metal products................
Machinery.......................................
Computer and electronic products.....
Electrical equipment and appliances..
Transportation equipment.................
Furniture and related products..........
Miscellaneous manufacturing...........

40.8
4.2
39.9
42.0
42.4
40.6
40.5
39.7
40.1
42.5
39.2
38.6

40.8
4.3
40.4
42.2
42.4
40.7
40.8
40.4
40.7
41.9
38.9
38.4

40.9
4.3
39.9
41.9
42.6
40.5
40.5
40.5
40.6
42.4
39.9
38.8

40.8
4.4
40.0
42.1
42.4
40.6
40.5
39.9
40.3
42.5
38.8
38.9

40.7
4.3
39.9
42.0
42.5
40.5
40.9
39.8
40.8
42.2
38.6
38.6

40.6
4.1
40.1
42.6
42.6
40.5
40.5
40.3
40.6
41.4
38.2
38.3

40.3
4.0
40.0
42.0
42.2
40.3
40.6
40.1
40.0
41.2
37.9
38.0

40.5
4.1
39.9
42.4
42.2
40.6
40.6
40.5
40.3
41.2
38.4
38.1

Nondurable goods.............................
Overtime hours..............................
Food manufacturing.........................
Beverage and tobacco products.......
Textile mills.....................................
Textile product mills........................
Apparel...........................................
Leather and allied products..............
Paper and paper products................
Printing and related support
activities........................................
Petroleum and coal products............
Chemicals.......................................
Plastics and rubber products.......... ..

40.1
4.2
39.6
39.4
40.7
39.2
36.7
37.5
41.8

39.9
4.1
39.4
39.1
39.1
39.6
35.5
39.3
41.8

40.0
4.4
39.4
38.5
40.4
39.3
36.3
39.0
41.8

39.8
4.3
39.1
39.3
39.2
39.2
36.2
39.3
41.6

39.9
4.3
39.1
39.3
40.0
39.2
36.0
39.4
41.8

40.0
4.2
39.6
39.4
39.5
39.0
35.9
39.7
41.8

39.8
4.1
39.4
39.6
39.1
38.5
35.6
39.3
41.6

38.4
43.0
42.3
40.6

38.3
44.6
42.4
40.4

38.5
44.0
42.3
40.3

38.5
43.9
42.3
40.2

38.3
45.1
42.8
40.3

38.5
45.8
42.7
40.2

32.5

32.4

32.5

32.4

32.4

33.6
38.0
30.9
36.8
40.9
36.5
35.6

33.5
37.9
30.8
36.9
41.0
36.3
35.5

33.5
37 .8
30.8
37.0
41.2
36.4
35.7

33.5
37.6
30.8
36.9
41.2
35.9
35.6

34.2
32.4
25.8
32.0

34.1
32.5
25.6
31.8

34.2
32.4
25.8
31.9

34.3
32.5
25.8
31.8

PRIVATE SERVICEPROVIDING........................................
Trade, transportation, and
utilities..................................................

Wholesale trade.................................
Retail trade........................................
Transportation and warehousing.........
Utilities..............................................
Information..............................................
Financial activities.................................
Professional and business
services.................................................
Education and health services.............
Leisure and hospitality.........................
Other services.........................................

1 Data relate to production workers in natural resources and mining and manu­
facturing, construction workers in construction, and nonsupervisory workers in the
service-providing industries.
p = preliminary.

132

Feb.

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

NOTE: Data reflect the conversion to the 2002 version of the North American
Industry Classification System (NAICS), replacing the Standard industrial Classification
(SIC) system. NAics-based data by industry are not comparable with sic-based data.
See "Notes on the data" for a description of the most recent benchmark revision.

14. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers1on private nonfarm payrolls, by industry,
monthly data seasonally adjusted
A n n u a l a v e ra g e
In d u s try

2003

2002
Jan.

Feb.

M a r.

A p r.

M ay

June

J u ly

Aug.

S e p t.

O c t.

N o v .p

D e c .p

$15.44
8.27

$15.45
8.29

$15.46
8.32

$15.46
8.32

2002

2003

Dec.

$14.95
8.24

$15.38
8.29

$15.20
8.30

$15.22
8.28

$15.29
8.26

$15.29
8.22

$15.30
8.27

$15.35
8.31

$15.38
8.30

$15.43
8.32

$15.45
8.30

16.33

16.80

16.60

16.63

16.65

16.68

16.71

16.76

16.79

16.81

16.86

16.89

16.88

16.99

16.99

17.55
18.95
15.68
14.92
16.37
14.61

17.60
18.96
15.72
14.98
16.42
14.63

17.62
18.96
15.73
14.96
16.42
14.66

17.69
18.99
15.79
15.02
16.49
14.70

17.74
19.02
15.83
15.05
16.55
14.71

17.79
19.03
15.80
15.01
16.49
14.73

17.80
19.06
15.83
15.02
16.50
14.77

17.80
19.06
15.83
15.02
16.50
14.77

TOTAL PRIVATE

GOODS-PRODUCING.............................

PRIVATE SERVICE­
PROVIDING...........................................

17.22
18.51
15.29
14.54
16.01
14.15

17.65
18.95
15.74
14.96
16.44
14.64

17.37
18.81
15.55
14.77
16.28
14.41

17.45
18.77
15.59
14.78
16.33
14.44

17.45
18.84
15.63
14.84
16.35
14.50

17.54
18.83
15.64
14.88
16.34
14.55

17.67
18.90
15.63
14.89
16.33
14.56

14.56

15.00

14.81

14.82

14.92

14.91

14.91

14.97

15.00

15.06

15.06

15.04

15.07

15.08

15.08

14.02
16.97
11.67
15.77
23.94
20.23
16.17

14.34
14.34
17.32
11.91
16.31
24.73
21.10
17.09

14.19
17.13
11.83
16.02
24.09
20.74
16.56

14.21
17.16
11.85
16.05
24.05
20.70
16.69

14.29
17.25
11.88
16.22
24.19
20.79
16.77

14.26
17.22
11.85
16.22
24.36
20.90
16.78

14.24
17.25
11.83
16.18
24.33
20.97
16.93

14.31
17.29
11.90
16.25
24.48
21.09
17.02

14.34
17.34
11.92
16.30
24.62
21.13
17.17

14.40
17.36
11.96
16.40
24.73
21.26
17.33

14.39
17.40
11.96
16.36
24.95
21.32
17.33

14.37
17.40
11.94
16.34
24.93
21.28
17.25

14.39
17.42
11.95
16.34
25.17
21.26
17.25

14.40
17.39
11.96
16.35
25.20
21.23
17.22

14.40
17.39
11.96
16.35
25.20
21.23
17.22

16.81

17.24

17.09

17.02

17.17

17.20

17.23

17.24

17.22

17.23

17.24

17.24

17.30

17.36

17.36

15.22
8.57
13.72

15.70
8.74
13.98

15.52
8.73
13.94

15.57
8.71
13.98

15.61
8.77
14.03

15.63
8.72
14.02

15.57
8.71
13.98

15.64
8.73
13.97

15.67
8.75
13.98

15.72
8.76
13.98

15.76
8.75
13.98

15.76
8.76
13.98

15.80
8.76
13.97

15.81
8.77
13.97

15.81
8.77
13.97

Trade,transportation, and

Transportation and warehousing.......

Professional and business
Education and health

Other services.....................................

1 Data relate to production workers in natural resources and mining and manufac­
turing, construction workers in construction, and nonsupervisory workers in the
service-providing industries.
p= preliminary.


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NOTE: Data reflect the conversion to the 2002 version of the North American industry
Classification System (n a ic s ), replacing the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system, n a ic s
based data by industry are not comparable with SIC-based data. See "Notes on the data" for a
description of the most recent benchmark revision.

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

133

Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data

15. Average hourly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers1on private nonfarm payrolls, by industry
A n n u a l a v e ra g e

2002

2003

In d u s tr y

TOTAL PRIVATE...............................

Seasonally adjusted...................
GOODS-PRODUCING.............................
Natural resources and mining............

2002

2003

N o v .p

D e c .p

$14.95
15.20

$15.38 $15.26 $15.27 $15.35 $15.34 $15.31 $15.31 $15.34 $15.32 $15.35 $15.48 $15.46 $15.53
15.20 15.22 15.29 15.29 15.30 15.35 15.38 15.43 15.45
15.50
15.44
15.44
15.46

$15.52
15.47

16.33
17.22

16.80
17.65

D ec.

16.66
17.40

Jan.

16.56
17.49

Feb.

16.54
17.43

M a r.

16.59
17.58

A p r.

16.66
17.76

M ay

June

16.71
17.47

16.78
17.52

J u ly

16.84
17.61

Aug

16.92
17.61

S e p t.

17.01
17.78

O c t.

16.94
17.77

16.95
17.76

17.04
18.01

Construction.........................................

18.51

18.95

18.90

18.68

18.69

18.73

18.83

18.85

18.90

18.99

19.06

19.17

19.11

19.11

19.18

Manufacturing.......................................

15.29

15.74

15.65

15.61

15.62

15.62

15.63

15.64

15.69

15.69

15.76

15.88

15.81

15.87

16.02

Durable goods.................................
Wood products.............................
Nonmetallic mineral products.........
Primary metals..............................
Fabricated metal products..............
Machinery....................................
Computer and electronic products...
Electrical equipment and appliances
Transportation equipment..............
Furniture and related products.......
Miscellaneous manufacturing........

16.01
12.33
15.39
17.68
14.68
15.93
16.19
13.97
20.64
12.62
12.91

16.44
12.69
15.75
18.10
15.01
16.33
16.66
14.33
21.21
13.00
13.29

16.39
12.49
15.55
18.09
14.97
16.20
16.41
14.16
21.42
12.93
13.08

16.34
12.52
15.62
18.05
14.95
16.11
16.32
14.08
21.22
12.93
13.12

16.34
12.51
15.48
17.96
14.92
16.16
16.55
14.18
21.16
12.91
13.14

16.33
12.51
15.52
17.86
14.97
16.19
16.55
14.25
21.07
12.93
13.22

16.30
12.48
15.69
18.03
14.94
16.20
16.59
14.25
20.94
12.89
13.20

16.33
12.57
15.73
17.93
14.92
16.23
16.56
14.19
21.08
12.90
13.19

16.40
12.70
15.70
18.02
14.92
16.33
16.75
14.28
21.20
12.96
13.13

16.31
12.81
15.83
18.23
15.00
16.39
16.76
14.29
20.77
12.98
13.25

16.47
12.76
15.81
18.10
15.04
16.35
16.78
14.13
21.30
13.05
13.26

16.61
12.83
15.83
18.27
15.09
16.42
16.75
14.47
21.56
13.10
13.41

16.54
12.82
15.95
18.22
15.02
16.38
16.74
14.34
21.36
13.01
13.47

16.56
12.88
15.94
18.27
15.05
16.52
16.81
14.55
21.27
13.08
13.49

16.73
12.84
15.91
18.33
15.25
16.71
16.79
14.63
21.58
13.21
13.57

Nondurable goods............................
Food manufacturing......................
Beverages and tobacco products ....
Textile mills..................................
Textile product mills......................
Apparel........................................
Leather and allied products...........
Paper and paper products.............
Printing and related support activities
Petroleum and coal products.........
Chemicals.....................................
Plastics and rubber products.........

14.15
12.54
17.68
11.73
10.96
9.10
11.01
16.89
14.93
23.06
17.97
13.55

14.64
12.76
17.16
12.00
11.27
9.57
11.72
17.44
15.38
23.69
18.54
14.16

14.48
12.81
18.04
11.83
11.20
9.30
11.51
17.26
15.35
23.65
18.34
13.81

14.47
12.70
17.68
11.99
11.12
9.30
11.53
17.21
15.28
23.58
18.28
13.91

14.49
12.66
17.53
11.92
11.11
9.33
11.62
17.22
15.32
24.29
18.29
13.95

14.53
12.70
17.69
11.92
10.98
9.45
11.62
17.22
15.33
24.17
18.33
14.00

14.57
12.72
17.70
11.95
11.14
9.47
11.76
17.38
15.35
23.92
18.35
14.07

14.56
12.71
17.93
11.95
11.13
9.49
11.71
17.38
15.26
23.36
18.46
14.09

14.58
12.70
17.56
11.92
11.18
9.47
11.59
17.33
15.26
25.53
18.55
14.18

14.72
12.81
17.74
11.97
11.29
9.68
11.57
17.59
15.41
23.21
18.53
14.37

14.67
12.78
17.60
11.94
11.47
9.75
11.73
17.46
15.37
23.01
18.61
14.26

14.74
12.88
17.58
12.06
11.49
9.77
11.69
17.54
15.48
23.51
18.68
14.29

14.68
12.75
17.90
12.02
11.39
9.70
11.89
17.57
15.42
23.69
18.68
14.17

14.79
12.81
18.30
12.14
11.42
9.70
11.94
17.71
15.53
24.00
18.84
14.22

14.88
12.94
17.96
12.20
11.56
9.85
11.99
17.66
15.58
23.97
18.84
14.41

14.56

15.00

14.88

14.92

15.04

15.00

14.94

14.92

14.94

14.91

14.92

15.05

15.05

15.15

15.11

Information.......................................

14.02
16.97
11.67
15.77
23.94
20.23

14.34
17.32
11.91
16.31
24.73
21.10

14.12
17.22
11.76
16.04
24.26
20.90

14.24
17.18
11.88
16.02
24.02
20.79

14.36
17.32
11.92
16.26
24.16
20.88

14.34
17.29
11.90
16.23
24.41
20.88

14.31
17.26
11.90
16.21
24.47
20.98

14.28
17.24
11.88
16.19
24.52
21.01

14.33
17.33
11.91
16.29
24.58
21.03

14.31
17.29
11.90
16.38
24.60
21.10

14.32
17.32
11.90
16.36
24.78
21.21

14.42
17.38
12.00
16.35
25.11
21.45

14.39
17.39
11.92
16.35
25.20
21.35

14.43
17.48
11.92
16.51
25.44
21.36

14.34
17.37
11.91
16.52
25.50
21.17

Financial activities...............................

16.17

17.09

16.64

16.70

16.95

16.89

16.93

16.97

17.16

17.24

17.30

17.25

17.23

17.27

17.12

16.81

17.24

17.28

17.14

17.40

17.36

17.21

17.18

17.25

17.11

17.07

17.15

17.17

17.45

17.36
15.89

PRIVATE SERVICEPROVIDING..........................................
Trade, transportation, and
utilities.................................................

Wholesale trade..............................
Retail trade.....................................
Transportation and warehousing......
Utilities...........................................

Professional and business
services...............................................
Education and health
services..............................................

15.22

15.70

15.55

15.61

15.61

15.62

15.56

15.58

15.61

15.69

15.75

15.78

15.81

15.83

Leisure and hospitality.......................

8.57

8.74

8.81

8.74

8.80

8.73

8.69

8.72

8.69

8.66

8.66

8.77

8.77

8.80

8.92

Other services.......................................

13.72

13.98

14.01

14.00

14.02

14.02

13.99

13.99

13.97

13.89

13.91

13.99

13.95

14.01

14.05

' Data relate to production workers in natural resources and mining and
manufacturing, construction workers in construction, and nonsupervisory workers in
the service-providing industries.

134

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

NOTE: Data reflect the conversion to the 2002 version of the North American Industry
Classification System (n a ic s ), replacing the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC)
system. NAics-based data by industry are not comparable with sic-based data. See
"Notes on the data" for a description of the most recent benchmark revision.

16. Average weekly earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers1on private nonfarm payrolls, by industry
Industry

Annual average

2003

2002

Aug.

Sept.

Nov.p

Dec.p

$506.22
Seasonally adjusted........
-

$519.56
-

$520.37 $510.02
514.44
513.76

$517.30
515.27

518.49.
516.80

$511.35
515.61

$515.95 $523.09 $517.82
518.45
517.30
518.31

$521.90
520.67

$523.22
520.33

$522.55 $529.07
522.55
524.43

$523.02
522.35

651.60

669.33

668.07

654.12

645.06

658.62

654.74

665.06

672.88

665.18

678.49

685.50

680.99

683.09

686.71

743.11
711.61
618.87

769.96
727.49
636.13

748.20
710.64
644.78

743.33
707.97
625.96

747.75
678.45
626.36

777.00
715.49
629.49

765.46
708.01
623.64

766.93
731.38
628.73

776.14
737.10
635.45

760.75
740.61
621.32

776.60
752.87
633.55

784.10
749.55
647.90

781.88
743.38
643.47

783.22
730.00
653.84

781.63
723.09
664.83

652.83
491.98
646.74
749.08
596.44
645.81

670.68
513.14
664.60
766.65
610.36
666.87

681.82
499.60
645.33
783.30
619.76
670.68

661.77
490.78
640.42
765.32
605.48
650.84

660.14
490.39
634.68
759.71
601.28
657.71

663.00
497.90
651.84
760.84
604.79
658.93

655.26
497.95
655.84
760.87
599.09
654.48

663.00
505.31
677.24
760.23
605.75
662.18

672.40
520.70
673.53
760.44
608.74
671.16

650.77
521.37
664.86
749.25
598.50
652..32

668.68
519.33
673.51
752.96
609.12
662.18

684.33
526.03
675.94
776.45
617.18
673.22

679.79
525.62
679.47
770.71
615.82
668.30

687.24
533.23
680.64
785.61
635.93
685.58

702.66
527.72
668.22
799.19
610.36
706.83

642.86

673.94

681.02

647.90

657.04

668.62

660.28

667.37

680.05

668.72

686.30

683.40

682.99

694.25

693.43

577.13
874.41

570.00
864.82

569.02
874.82

588.34
888.28

567.31
824.57

581.53
871.17

588.93
918.40

590.81
905.66

602.37
903.98

620.31
945.20

514.17

518.76

508.69

520.58

535.01

2002
TO TAL PRIVATE...........................

G O O DS-PRO DUCING ......................
Natural resources
and m ining.......................................
Construction....................................
M anufacturing................................ .

Durable goods........................
Wood products.....................
Nonmetallic mineral products....
Primary metals......................
Fabricated metal products......
Machinery............................
Computer and electronic
products.............................
Electrical equipment and
appliances..........................
Transportation equipment.......
Furniture and related
products.............................
Miscellaneous
Nondurable goods...................
Food manufacturing...............
Beverages and tobacco
products.............................
Textile mills..........................
Textile product mills...............
Apparel................................
Leather and allied products.....
Paper and paper products......
Printing and related
support activities..................
Petroleum and coal
products.............................
Chemicals............................
Plastics and rubber
products.............................

2003

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Oct.

560.09
877.84

582.80
887.94

591.89
921.06

564.61
895.48

575.71
886.60

494.14

505.76

522.37

493.93

494.45

493.93

488.53

491.49

505.44

504.92

499.09

510.61

515.35

505.12

504.58

508.97

500.28

502.54

506.82

502..18

505.21

514.94

515.90

530.16

531.94

567.11
496.78

583.61
502.27

586.44
513.68

571.57
491.49

572.36
487.41

579.75
496.57

575.52
493.54

576.58
496.96

580.28
500.38

577.02
498.31

582.40
507.37

594.02
516.49

588.67
506.18

601.95
514.96

604.13
516.31

697.09
476.70
429.49
333.77
413.05
707.36

694.45
469.41
446.84
340.09
460.54
724.20

699.95
480.30
449.12
338.52
451.19
735.28

675.38
467.61
431.46
332.01
447.36
714.22

669.65
472.03
429.96
333.08
456.67
711.19

686.37
473.22
431.51
340.20
463.64
716.35

695.61
472.03
431.12
336.19
468.05
717.79

704.65
461.27
432.96
336.90
459.03
714.32

695.38
463.69
441.61
337.13
454.33
717.46

690.09
440.50
448.21
332.02
452.39
719.43

688.16
462.08
459.95
338.33
455.12
715.86

701.44
475.16
468.79
341.95
448.90
731.42

701.68
486.81
460.16
349.20
466.09
732.67

732.00
461.37
461.37
353.08
472.82
747.36

695.05
469.34
469.34
353.62
483.20
754.08

573.42

588.59

597.12

580.64

582.16

591.74

580.23

573.78

578.35

580.96

585.60

600.62

599.84

605.67

604.50

992.05
759.57

1,056.12 1,040.60 1,039.88 1,095.48 1,109.40 1,052.48 1,006.82 1,047.09 1,025.88 1,010.14 1,048.55 1,070.79 1,104.00 1,066.67
808.24
785.34 793.90
786.43
812.00
777.17
786.52
772.70
785.76 786.79
769.59 780.98 780.86 776.21

549.57

571.63

566.21

556.40

558.00

561.40

561.39

569.24

572.87

564.74

571.83

583.03

579.14

584.44

599.46

473.10

486.01

488.06

477.44

488.80

487.50

481.07

481.92

490.03

484.58

486.39

486.12

486.12

495.41

486.54

471.09
643.99
360.53

480.54
655.90
366.99

478.67
657.80
366.91

467.07
639.10
356.40

476.75
654.70
362.37

478.96
655.29
364.14

475.09
647.25
362.95

476.95
651.67
365.90

487.22
663.74
373.97

483.68
651.83
372.47

485.45
658.16
373.66

485.95
658.70
372.00

483.50
660.82
367.14

486.29
674.73
365.94

479.29
654.85
366.83

580.68
978.44

600.95
1,014.25

603.10
997.09

581.53
987.22

593.49
992.98

590.94 604.36 604.42
606.96
608.22
606.59
622.43
609.59
595.64 586.80
1,003.25 1,005.72 1,000.42 1,010.24 1,006.14 1,013.50 1,024.49 1,038.24 1,055.76 1,032.75

PRIVATE SERVICEPROVIDING .......................................
Trade, transportation,
and utilities....................................

Wholesale trade.....................
Transportation and
warehousing.........................
Utilities...................................

739.41

766.17

769.12

742.20

760.03

757.94

753.18

758.46

773.90

768.04

774.17

774.35

775.01

790.32

766.35

575.43

607.09

604.03

587.84

611.90

608.04

595.94

599.04

621.19

606.85

612.42

607.20

608.22

623.45

602.62

574.59

587.57

596.16

579.33

598.56

597.18

585.14

584.12

598.58

581.74

581.08

579.67

582.06

598.54

585.03

493.02

510.76

506.93

507.33

508.89

509.21

502.59

503.23

510.45

509.93

515.03

512.85

512.24

520.81

516.43

221.15

223.86

227.30

217.63

224.40

224.36

219.86

222.36

226.81

226.03

227.76

221.88

223.64

226.16

224.78

439.65

443.94

449.72

442.40

445.84

447.24

443.48

443.48

447.04

441.70

443.73

443.48

442.22

445.52

442.58

Professional and
business services......................
Education and
health services............................

O ther services................................

1 Data relate to production workers in natural resources and mining and
manufacturing, construction workers in construction, and nonsupervisory
workers in the service-providing industries.
NOTE: Data reflect the conversion to the 2002 version of the North
American


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Industry Classification System ( n a ic s ), replacing the Standard Industrial Classifification (sic)
system. NAics-based data by industry are not comparable with sic-based data. See "Notes on
the data" for a description of the most recent benchmark revision.
Dash indicates data not available, p = preliminary.

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

135

Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data

17.

Diffusion indexes of employment change, seasonally adjusted

[In percent]
T im e s p a n a n d y e a r

Jan.

Feb.

M a r.

A p r.

M ay

June

J u ly

Aug.

S e p t.

O c t.

N ov.

D ec.

Private nonfarm payrolls, 278 industries
Over 1-month span:
1999..........................................
2000..........................................
2001..........................................
2002..........................................
2003..........................................
Over 3-month span:
1999..........................................
2000..........................................
2001..........................................
2002..........................................
2003..........................................

56.3
65.5
52.3
40.5
44.2

64.7
60.3
49.6
37.0
36.7

56.7
65.5
48.6
37.6
44.1

65.8
58.8
36.5
41.0
46.9

64.2
47.7
41.4
41.7
43.3

61.9
61.7
38.1
43.7
37.2

63.3
65.5
35.6
39.0
43.2

59.9
52.9
38.5
41.7
40.8

57.6
52.3
39.0
43.3
50.0

64.4
54.1
35.6
43.9
50.0

69.1
57.7
37.8
42.4
54.3

64.4
53.2
36.0
37.2
50.4

61.5
70.1
54.9
34.4

64.9
66.0
50.7
38.3

61.0
68.3
50.5
36.5

65.8
68.3
43.5
35.4

66.4
58.5
37.2
36.7

66.9
58.1
36.2
39.7

64.4
62.2
35.8
41.4

37.6

34.5

62.2
55.9
34.5
38.1
43.5

62.9
53.1
32.2
39.0
46.6

66.7
54.0
31.7
37.8
50.5

69.6
58.3
30.9
34.9
49.8

36.0

35.6

36.0

41.2

43.0

69.1
56.3
39.7
38.8
40.6

Over 6-month span:
1999..........................................
2000..........................................
2001..........................................
2002..........................................
2003..........................................

66.9
67.6
53.2
30.6
37.4

64.9
68.7
51.4
29.9

63.7
71.4
50.7
31.1

64.0
71.9
47.1
31.3

36.5

35.1

34.7

65.6
68.5
42.8
33.3
37.4

65.8
66.2
38.8
35.8
36.5

66.7
67.3
37.6
36.9
38.7

66.2
60.4
34.5
37.4
35.1

69.4
58.3
31.1
37.8
40.8

68.7
55.0
32.9
39.9
38.8

66.4
61.0
31.3
38.3
42.6

66.5
55.2
31.7
35.8
44.8

Over 12-month span:
1999..........................................
2000..........................................
2001..........................................
2002..........................................
2003..........................................

70.5
70.9
59.5
33.6
33.8

68.7
69.2
59.5
31.7
33.3

68.2
73.2
53.4
30.2
34.5

68.0
71.0
49.3
30.2
35.4

68.3
69.8
48.6
30.4
36.5

68.3
71.0
45.0
30.6
35.4

68.0
70.0
43.3
30.8
35.8

68.0
70.3
43.9
31.8
33.6

67.8
70.3
39.9
31.5
38.1

69.1
65.6
37.8
30.0
37.4

68.3
63.8
37.1
33.5
34.9

69.1
62.1
34.9
33.3
38.5

Manufacturing payrolls, 84 industries
Over 1-month span:
1999..........................................
2000..........................................
2001..........................................
2002..........................................
2003..........................................

42.3
50.6
24.4
19.0
36.3

38.7
53.6
22.0
22.6
19.0

33.3
54.8
24.4
20.8
27.4

39.3
42.9
14.3
33.9
20.2

52.4
39.9
14.3
30.4
30.4

34.5
53.6
19.6
32.1
25.6

50.0
62.5
14.3
34.5
31.5

40.5
28.6
13.7
25.0
25.6

41.7
24.4
17.9
31.0
33.3

50.6
35.1
16.7
19.6
32.7

56.0
41.1
16.7
21.4
42.9

51.8
38.7
9.5
25.0
38.1

Over 3-month span:
1999..........................................
2000..........................................
2001..........................................
2002..........................................
2003..........................................

33.9
54.2
34.5
11.9
14.9

40.5
54.8
24.4
11.9
15.5

37.5
58.3
17.9
16.7
19.6

35.7
51.8
14.3
20.2
16.7

41.7
41.7
11.9
21.4
17.9

43.5
41.1
14.3
20.2
14.3

42.3
54.8
10.7
28.6
20.2

38.1
48.2
7.7
25.6
18.5

41.1
29.2
8.3
25.6
24.4

44.6
25.6
9.5
17.9
25.6

49.4
25.0
8.9
14.9
31.0

56.5
42.3
8.3
10.7
35.1

Over 6-month span:
1999..........................................
2000..........................................
2001..........................................
2002..........................................
2003..........................................

37.5
47.0
23.8
7.7
13.7

32.7
51.2
24.4
8.9
14.3

30.4
56.5
20.8
7.7
12.5

33.3
57.1
17.9
8.9
11.9

36.9
49.4
14.9
12.5
12.5

38.1
47.6
11.9
16.7
15.5

38.1
56.0
13.7
19.6
13.1

34.5
44.0
9.5
19.6
13.7

40.5
36.9
8.3
23.8
16.1

46.4
35.1
6.5
17.9
16.7

41.1
34.5
6.5
16.7
19.6

48.2
31.0
6.0
13.7
24.4

Over 12-month span:
1999..........................................
2000..........................................
2001..........................................
2002..........................................
2003..........................................

35.7
41.7
29.8
7.1
13.7

32.1
39.3
32.1
6.0
15.5

29.8
47.0
20.8
6.0
16.7

32.1
50.0
19.0
7.1
13.1

32.7
46.4
13.1
7.7
15.5

32.1
52.4
12.5
5.4

34.5
51.8
10.7
6.0

32.1
49.4
11.9
8.9

16.1

13.1

14.3

33.3
46.4
11.9
7.7
12.5

39.3
40.5
10.1
9.5
13.1

41.1
35.1
8.3
13.1
11.9

42.9
33.3
6.0
13.1
14.3

NOTE: Figures are the percent of industries with employment
increasing plus one-half of the industries with unchanged
employment, where 50 percent indicates an equal balance
between industres with increasing and decreasing employment.

136
Monthly Labor Review

https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

See the "Definitions" in this section. See "Notes on the data" for
a description of the most recent benchmark revision.
Data for the two most recent months are preliminary.

18.

Establishment size and employment covered under Ul, private ownership, by Supersector, first quarter 2001
S ize o f e s ta b lis h m e n ts
In d u s try , e s ta b lis h m e n ts , a nd
e m p lo y m e n t

Total

Few er than
5 w o rk e rs 1

5 to 9
w o rk e rs

10 to 19
w o rkers

20 to 49
w o rk e rs

5 0 to 99
w o rk e rs

100 to 249
w o rk e rs

2 5 0 to 4 9 9
w o rk e rs

5 0 0 to 9 9 9
w o rk e rs

1,000 o r
m o re
w o rk e rs

T o ta l all in d u s trie s 2

Establishments, first quarter ...............
Employment, March ...........................

7,665,968
108,932,804

4,526,062
6,886,752

1,304,741
858,606
208,084
598,438
121,189
31,149
8,633,337 11,588,220 18,104,061 14,323,060 18,158,276 10,611,556

127,969
1,566,104

74,644
110,942

23,304
154,199

15,169
203,845

9,501
285,486

2,935
200,360

1,700
254,358

499
172,011

167
109,973

50
74,930

765,649
6,481,334

494,254
714,992

127,017
832,978

75,983
1,020,982

47,230
1,410,131

13,591
925,178

6,040
890,282

1,176
390,630

293
197,146

65
99,015

398,837
16,806,452

148,682
255,376

67,510
453,750

60,267
830,685

58,942
1,836,858

28,633
2,009,224

22,490
3,456,620

7,636
2,622,512

3,198
2,166,352

1,479
3,175,075

1,840,104
25,518,430

969,760
1,629,626

376,578
2,507,906

244,890
3,278,074

153,450
4,630,611

53,110
3,670,363

32,898
4,888,033

6,970
2,343,794

1,813
1,191,894

635
1,378,129

150,855
3,692,948

84,672
113,812

20,636
137,426

17,119
234,492

14,772
457,236

6,698
465,567

4,475
685,746

1,476
507,063

674
462,533

333
629,073

716,808
7,623,126

458,390
750,421

128,266
843,311

71,615
952,198

37,529
1,121,825

11,731
801,994

6,084
917,250

1,808
621,240

897
609,199

488
1,005,688

1,238,267
16,441,289

825,617
1,170,098

173,773
1,140,772

107,694
1,451,932

73,807
2,245,729

29,139
2,022,745

19,405
2,951,873

5,654
1,933,668

2,177
1,480,878

1,001
2,043,594

679,762
14,712,829

321,428
603,470

155,333
1,027,913

96,121
1,291,605

61,097
1,836,799

22,789
1,589,809

15,989
2,383,443

3,721
1,274,120

1,690
1,178,727

1,594
3,526,943

627,875
11,590,048

249,542
390,258

104,548
705,222

110,374
1,542,760

117,264
3,560,715

33,939
2,263,935

9,463
1,344,217

1,725
586,269

667
453,703

353
742,969

954,627
4,187,740

750,261
977,871

115,619
752,689

55,756
734,980

24,254
703,687

5,498
372,499

2,630
384,044

484
160,249

102
66,660

23
35,061

11,678
6,021
7,917,065 12,710,477

N a tu ral re s o u rc e s a n d m in ing

Establishments, first quarter ...............
Employment, March ...........................
C o n s tru c tio n

Establishments, first quarter ...............
Employment, March ...........................
M a n u fa c tu rin g

Establishments, first quarter ...............
Employment, March ...........................
T ra d e , tra n s p o rta tio n , a n d u tilities

Establishments, first quarter ...............
Employment, March ...........................
In fo rm a tio n

Establishments, first quarter ...............
Employment, March ...........................
F inancial a c tiv itie s

Establishments, first quarter ...............
Employment, March ...........................
P ro fess io n a l a n d b u s in e s s s e rvices

Establishments, first quarter ...............
Employment, March ...........................
E d u catio n a nd health s e rvices

Establishments, first quarter ...............
Employment, March ...........................
L eisu re an d h o s p itality

Establishments, first quarter ...............
Employment, March ...........................
O th e r se rv ic e s

Establishments, first quarter ...............
Employment, March ...........................

1 Includes establishments that reported no workers In March 2001.
2 Includes data for unclassified establishments, not shown separately.


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals due to rounding. Data reflect the movement of
Indian Tribal Council establishments from private industry to the public sector. See
Notes on Current Labor Statistics.

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

137

Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data

19.

Annual data: establishments, employment, and wages covered under Ul and UCFE by ownership
Average
establishments

Year

Average
annual
employment

Total annual wages
(in thousands)

Average annual
wages
per employee

Average
weekly
wage

Total covered (Ul and UCFE)

1992 .............................................
1993.............................................
1994 .............................................
1995 .............................................
1996 .............................................
1997 .............................................
1998.............................................
1999 .............................................
2000 .............................................
2001 .............................................

6,532,608
6,679,934
6,826,677
7,040,677
7,189,168
7,369,473
7,634,018
7,820,860
7,879,116
7,984,529

107,413,728
109,422,571
112,611,287
115,487,841
117,963,132
121,044,432
124,183,549
127,042,282
129,877,063
129,635,800

$2,781,676,477
2,884,472,282
3,033,676,678
3,215,921,236
3,414,514,808
3,674,031,718
3,967,072,423
4,235,579,204
4,587,708,584
4,695,225,123

$25,897
26,361
26,939
27,846
28,946
30,353
31,945
33,340
35,323
36,219

$498
507
518
536
557
584
614
641
679
697

$25,622
26,055
26,633
27,567
28,658
30,058
31,676
33,094
35,077
35,943

$493
501
512
530
551
578
609
636
675
691

$25,547
25,934
26,496
27,441
28,582
30,064
31,762
33,244
35,337
36,157

$491
499
510
528
550
578
611
639
680
695

$27,789
28,643
29,518
30,497
31,397
32,521
33,605
34,681
36,296
37,814

$534
551
568
586
604
625
646
667
698
727

$25,434
26,095
26,717
27,552
28,320
29,134
30,251
31,234
32,387
33,521

$489
502
514
530
545
560
582
601
623
645

$35,066
36,940
38,038
38,523
40,414
42,732
43,688
44,287
46,228
48,940

$674
710
731
741
777
822
840
852
889
941

Ul covered

1992 .............................................
1993.............................................
1994.............................................
1995.............................................
1996 .............................................
1997 .............................................
1998 .............................................
1999.............................................
2000 .............................................
2001 .............................................

6,485,473
6,632,221
6,778,300
6,990,594
7,137,644
7,317,363
7,586,767
7,771,198
7,828,861
7,933,536

104,288,324
106,351,431
109,588,189
112,539,795
115,081,246
118,233,942
121,400,660
124,255,714
127,005,574
126,883,182

$2,672,081,827
2,771,023,411
2,918,684,128
3,102,353,355
3,298,045,286
3,553,933,885
3,845,494,089
4,112,169,533
4,454,966,824
4,560,511,280

Private industry covered

1992 .............................................
1993.............................................
1994 .............................................
1995.............................................
1996 .............................................
1997 .............................................
1998.............................................
1999 .............................................
2000.............................................
2001 .............................................

6,308,719
6,454,381
6,596,158
6,803,454
6,946,858
7,121,182
7,381,518
7,560,567
7,622,274
7,724,965

89,349,803
91,202,971
94,146,344
96,894,844
99,268,446
102,175,161
105,082,368
107,619,457
110,015,333
109,304,802

$2,282,598,431
2,365,301,493
2,494,458,555
2,658,927,216
2,837,334,217
3,071,807,287
3,337,621,699
3,577,738,557
3,887,626,769
3,952,152,155

State government covered

1992 .............................................
1993.............................................
1994.............................................
1995.............................................
1996 .............................................
1997.............................................
1998.............................................
1999 .............................................
2000.............................................
2001 .............................................

58,801
59,185
60,686
60,763
62,146
65,352
67,347
70,538
65,096
64,583

4,044,914
4,088,075
4,162,944
4,201,836
4,191,726
4,214,451
4,240,779
4,296,673
4,370,160
4,452,237

$112,405,340
117,095,062
122,879,977
128,143,491
131,605,800
137,057,432
142,512,445
149,011,194
158,618,365
168,358,331

Local government covered

1992 .............................................
1993.............................................
1994.............................................
1995.............................................
1996 .............................................
1997.............................................
1998.............................................
1999.............................................
2000.............................................
2001 .............................................

117,923
118,626
121,425
126,342
128,640
130,829
137,902
140,093
141,491
143,989

10,892,697
11,059,500
11,278,080
11,442,238
11,621,074
11,844,330
12,077,513
12,339,584
12,620,081
13,126,143

$277,045,557
288,594,697
301,315,857
315,252,346
329,105,269
345,069,166
365,359,945
385,419,781
408,721,690
440,000,795

Federal Government covered (UCFE)

1992.............................................
1993.............................................
1994.............................................
1995.............................................
1996.............................................
1997.............................................
1998 .............................................
1999.............................................
2000 .............................................
2001 .............................................

47,136
47,714
48,377
50,083
51,524
52,110
47,252
49,661
50,256
50,993

3,125,404
3,071,140
3,023,098
2,948,046
2,881,887
2,810,489
2,782,888
2,786,567
2,871,489
2,752,619

$109,594,650
113,448,871
114,992,550
113,567,881
116,469,523
120,097,833
121,578,334
123,409,672
132,741,760
134,713,843

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals due to rounding. Data reflect the movement of Indian Tribal Council establishments from private Industry to
the public sector. See Notes on Current Labor Statistics.

138

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

20.

Annual data: establishments, employment, and wages covered under Ul and UCFE, by State
Average
establishments
State
2001

Average annual
employment

20002001
change

2001

Total annual wages
On thousands)

20002001
change

Average weekly
wage

20002001
change

2001

20002001
change

2001

Total United States .......

7.984,529

154,540

129,635,800

-185,779

$4,695,225,123

$109,884,920

$697

$18

Alabama........................
Alaska...........................
Arizona..........................
Arkansas .......................
California.......................

112,356
19,287
118,706
72,814
1,065,699

30
467
3,546
587
74,645

1,854,462
283,033
2,243,652
1,127,151
14,981,757

-23,500
7,479
22,942
-3,731
138,284

55,822,097
10,237,292
74,963,072
30,725,592
619,146,651

1,284,088
553,237
2,546,248
963,862
7,497,476

579
696
643
524
795

21
20
16
18
3

Colorado.......................
Connecticut....................
Delaware.......................
District of Columbia.........
Florida...........................

153,824
108,201
25,253
28,414
454,077

5,347
414
505
9
9,367

2,201,379
1,665,607
406,736
635,749
7,153,589

14,728
-9,121
482
-1,535
92,606

83,547,602
78,272,099
15,629,636
35,543,559
225,713,701

2,274,669
2,095,243
787,067
1,790,086
9,933,356

730
904
739
1,075
607

15
29
36
56
19

Georgia.........................
Hawaii...........................
Idaho.............................
Illinois............................
Indiana..........................

230,232
35,439
46,480
319,588
151,376

5,219
1,412
1,084
-2,723
-1,328

3,871,763
557,146
571,314
5,886,248
2,871,236

-10,941
3,961
8,137
-54,259
-63,392

136,039,438
17,412,210
15,864,510
230,054,835
91,246,189

3,195,926
469,266
263,832
4,050,811
183,520

676
601
534
752
611

18
12
1
20
14

Iowa..............................
Kansas ..........................
Kentucky.......................
Louisiana......................
Maine............................

91,006
80,521
108,025
115,807
46,206

-5,825
52
302
-2,386
1,344

1,429,543
1,319,667
1,736,575
1,869,966
593,166

-13,432
5,984
-26,160
827
2,472

41,223,534
39,792,114
52,133,417
54,473,146
17,092,043

919,492
1,221,387
1,367,028
2,345,871
750,886

555
580
577
560
554

18
15
23
24
22

Maryland.......................
Massachusetts...............
Michigan .......................
Minnesota.....................
Mississippi .....................

147,158
191,824
259,556
156,031
63,207

622
6,848
5,809
487
-748

2,421,899
3,276,224
4,476,659
2,609,669
1,111,255

16,392
21,104
-107,880
1,325
-25,520

92,644,873
147,348,234
167,385,129
95,479,188
28,806,869

5,096,016
3,574,494
-2,295,158
3,107,396
151,385

736
865
719
704
499

36
16
7
23
14

Missouri ........................
Montana........................
Nebraska......................
Nevada.........................
New Hampshire .............

163,121
40,477
52,653
49,635
46,070

138
2,136
836
1,770
171

2,652,876
383,905
883,920
1,043.748
610,192

-23,960
4,862
1,516
25,919
3,685

86,009,694
9,672,371
25,083,293
34,569,506
21,650,267

2,000,438
472,112
646,745
1,717,063
582,754

623
485
546
637
682

19
18
13
16
14

New Jersey....................
New Mexico...................
New York......................
North Carolina................
North Dakota..................

256,536
48,439
538,898
224,426
23,326

-13,793
522
9,822
2,208
38

3,876,194
729,422
8,423,312
3,805,498
311,632

-1,221
12,293
-47,446
-57,272
2,412

171,793,642
20,935,825
393,598,666
121,866,007
8,011,085

2,443,618
1,216,191
9,383,346
1,858,872
378,510

852
552
899
616
494

12
23
27
19
19

O hio..............................
Oklahoma .....................
Oregon..........................
Pennsylvania.................
Rhode Island..................

285,567
90,603
111,073
331,405
33,636

4,705
1,574
2,150
16,187
311

5,434,769
1,463,622
1,596,753
5,552,366
468,952

-77,865
11,771
-11,175
-5,535
1,351

180,885,154
41,004,250
53,018,365
194,211,696
15,758,369

1,681,299
1,821,743
317,098
5,158,632
507,610

640
539
639
673
646

15
20
9
19
19

South Carolina...............
South Dakota.................
Tennessee ....................
Texas ............................
Utah ..............................

114,979
27,365
125,165
494,088
68,607

5,613
221
140
4,509
2,470

1,786,899
364,715
2,625,746
9,350,770
1,050,674

-33,210
598
-41,005
62,437
6,551

52,275,679
9,337,014
82,762,402
337,047,962
31,600,715

986,967
306,302
1,275,641
12,484,223
1,082,204

563
492
606
693
578

21
15
18
21
16

Vermont........................
Virginia..........................
Washington....................
West Virginia..................
Wisconsin .....................
Wyoming.......................

24,156
195,639
221,450
46,620
148,227
21,288

287
3,048
1,775
-186
2,374
429

298,020
3,436,172
2,689,507
685,754
2,717,660
237,278

1,558
8,411
-14,921
-845
-18,388
6,446

9,011,468
126,222,350
100,746,663
19,187,832
85,713,725
6,654,092

439,492
5,662,779
413,740
726,836
1,733,629
459,596

581
706
720
538
607
539

25
30
7
21
17
23

Puerto Rico....................
Virgin Islands.................

51,733
3,236

-633
-17

1,007,919
44,330

-18,234
1,981

19,884,381
1,294,885

578,173
120,936

379
562

17
29

NOTE: Detail may not add to totals due to rounding.


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

139

Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data

21.

Annual data: Employment and average annual pay for all workers
covered under Ul and UCFE in the 249 largest U.S. counties
Employment
County1
2001

Percent
change,
2000-20012

-.1

-

36,219

2.5

380,680
156,169
167,000
129,878
133,842
1,561,773
326,917
240,754
697,181
337,444

-1.0
1.3
-1.5
-.9
3.1
1.2
-.6
-.7
-.1
.7

197
54
212
192
16
61
170
175
135
80

35,453
37,089
29,502
29,979
37,998
35,689
30,690
32,261
46,489
44,744

4.2
3.5
3.1
3.8
3.7
1.6
5.1
4.7
3.1
5.7

Fresno, CA ....................
Kern, C A ........................
Los Angeles, C A .............
Marin, C A.......................
Monterey, C A.................
Orange, CA....................
Placer, CA .....................
Riverside, CA..................
Sacramento, C A .............
San Bernardino, CA........

322,084
242,232
4,103,370
111,939
166,186
1,411,944
116,185
491,535
588,426
545,113

-.1
1.5
.6
1.3
.8
1.6
6.1
4.2
3.0
2.8

136
49
87
55
75
46
1
8
18
21

27,878
30,106
40,891
43,547
31,735
40,252
34,773
29,971
39,173
30,995

6.5
5.3
3.1
2.2
5.9
2.6
4.1
2.8
3.8
3.6

San Diego, C A ................
San Francisco, CA..........
San Joaquin, CA.............
San Mateo, CA ...............
Santa Barbara, CA .........
Santa Clara, CA..............
Santa Cruz, CA...............
Solano, C A ....................
Sonoma, C A ..................
Stanislaus, C A ................

1,218,982
586,085
204,504
369,868
177,234
1,002,637
102,669
121,402
194,922
164,473

2.0
-3.3
1.9
.1
.8
-2.3
.9
3.0
2.1
2.2

37
246
39
120
76
233
64
19
32
30

38,418
61,068
30,818
62,288
33,626
65,931
35,022
33,496
36,145
29,591

2.3
6.1
5.3
-7.2
3.2
-13.5
-2.2
5.7
1.1
4.9

Tulare, CA .....................
Ventura, C A ...................
Adams, C O ....................
Arapahoe, CO.................
Boulder, C O ...................
Denver, CO ....................
El Paso, C O ...................
Jefferson, C O .................
Larimer, C O ...................
Fairfield, C T ...................

132,878
293,208
146,043
285,963
184,755
461,996
240,100
210,375
121,880
421,211

.0
1.5
.6
-.2
3.2
-.6
.9
.1
2.3
-1.0

130
50
88
144
13
171
65
121
29
198

24,732
37,783
34,753
44,999
44,310
46,134
34,391
37,819
33,248
63,163

4.2
1.9
4.0
-2.7
-2.8
4.0
4.1
4.5
2.6
3.3

Hartford, C T ...................
New Haven, C T ..............
New London, C T.............
New Castle, DE ..............
Washington, DC .............
Alachua, F L ...................
Brevard, F L ....................
Broward, F L ...................
Collier, F L ......................
Duval, F L .......................

497,280
363,265
124,684
282,318
635,734
119,148
184,725
663,954
110,230
436,663

-.5
-1.1
1.6
.2
-.2
.7
1.7
2.1
5.9
1.8

163
201
47
112
145
81
43
33
2
41

45,050
39,483
38,505
42,849
55,909
26,917
32,798
33,966
30,839
33,721

3.2
2.9
4.8
5.8
5.6
2.9
2.2
2.2
2.9
2.9

Escambia, FL..................
Hillsborough, FL .............
Lee, FL ..........................
Leon, FL ........................
Manatee, F L ...................
Miami-Dade, F L ............ .
Orange, FL ....................
Palm Beach, F L ..............
Pinellas, F L....................
Polk, FL .........................

121,285
595,768
171,902
142,981
118,788
993,834
602,668
499,688
448,788
184,471

.8
1.8
4.5
.9
5.2
1.6
.2
3.9
3.3
.1

77
42
5
66
4
48
113
9
12
122

28,610
32,874
29,432
30,287
26,629
34,524
32,218
35,957
31,742
28,890

7.1
3.7
4.6
3.5
4.4
3.6
3.5
2.1
1.5
3.6

Sarasota, F L ..................
Seminole, FL ..................
Volusia, FL.....................
Chatham, G A ..................
Clayton, G A ...................
Cobb, G A .......................
Dekalb, G A ....................
Fulton, GA .....................
Gwinnett, G A ..................
Richmond, G A ................

147,206
145,147
142,478
122,608
114,982
301,520
305,903
754,870
289,538
104,694

4.5
2.2
-.2
-.2
-.3
-.1
-.7
.1
2.9
-.9

6
31
146
147
151
137
176
123
20
193

29,030
31,951
26,064
30,549
38,301
40,174
39,648
47,761
39,405
29,431

1.9
3.6
3.9
3.0
4.2
3.6
2.7
1.5
.9
2.9

See footnotes at end of table.

140

2001

Jefferson, A L ..................
Madison, A L...................
Mobile, A L......................
Montgomery, A L .............
Anchorage, A K ...............
Maricopa, A Z ..................
Pima, A Z ........................
Pulaski, A R ....................
Alameda, C A ..................
Contra Costa, C A ...........

United States4 ................. 129,635,800

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Percent
change,
2000-20012

Average annual pay
Ranked by
percent
change,
2000-20013

February 2004


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

21. Continued—Annual data: Employment and average annual pay for
all workers covered under Ul and UCFE in the 249 largest U.S.
counties
Employment
County1
2001

Average annual pay

Percent
change,
2000-20012

Ranked by
percent
change,
2000-20013

2001

Percent
change,
2000-20012

Honolulu, H I...................
Ada, ID ...........................
Cook, IL .................................
Du Page, I L ...........................
Kane, Ì L .........................
Lake, I L ..................................
Peoria, I L ...............................
Sangamon, I L .................
Will, I L .....................................
Winnebago, IL ................

409,669
182,309
2,630,768
580,938
194,374
316,150
102,764
145,195
145,570
139,815

.4
2.7
-1.5
-.2
-.1
-.3
-1.8
.2
.1
-2.9

99
23
213
148
138
152
223
114
124
241

32,531
33,081
44,108
43,470
33,362
43,970
33,288
36,259
34,280
31,951

2.1
-4.0
2.8
2.1
3.7
3.2
6.1
4.3
6.1
1.4

Allen, IN .........................
Elkhart, IN ......................
Lake, IN .........................
Marion, IN ......................
St. Joseph, IN ................
Vanderburgh, IN .............
Linn, IA ..........................
Polk, IA ..........................
Johnson, K S ...................
Sedgwick, KS .................

183,329
113,524
194,624
591,406
124,967
109,418
119,914
263,469
292,984
249,863

-2.3
-6.8
-1.9
-1.3
-3.1
.1
-1.7
-.2
2.4
.1

234
249
226
210
244
125
219
149
27
126

32,830
30,797
32,017
37,885
30,769
30,494
34,649
34,944
37,204
33,937

1.7
1.5
1.4
3.8
3.7
3.1
1.6
3.8
-.1
3.8

Shawnee, KS..................
Fayette, K Y ....................
Jefferson, K Y ..................
Caddo, LA......................
East Baton Rouge, L A .....
Jefferson, LA .................
Lafayette, LA .................
Orleans, LA....................
Cumberland, ME.............
Anne Arundel, M D ..........

100,462
167,714
431,347
120,877
243,392
213,911
119,294
263,427
168,147
200,174

.3
-2.4
-1.7
1.3
-1.1
-.4
4.5
.1
1.3
2.8

105
237
220
56
202
160
7
127
57
22

30,513
32,237
34,688
29,354
30,397
29,326
32,364
32,880
32,327
37,190

3.9
5.0
4.1
2.0
3.9
4.6
8.2
3.7
5.1
4.9

Baltimore, MD.................
Howard, MD...................
Montgomery, M D ............
Prince Georges, M D .......
Baltimore City, MD..........
Bristol, MA .....................
Essex, MA .....................
Hampden, MA.................
Middlesex, M A................
Norfolk, M A....................

360,128
132,935
449,881
304,022
381,155
218,818
306,111
204,824
850,295
327,067

.2
1.3
.9
.5
.4
-1.1
.2
.9
1.4
.7

115
58
67
94
100
203
116
68
52
82

36,240
40,191
45,893
38,986
40,508
32,012
39,242
33,357
51,734
44,173

6.2
6.1
5.0
5.2
5.0
4.1
.5
3.6
.0
2.2

Plymouth, M A .................
Suffolk, MA ....................
Worcester, M A................
Genesee, M l..................
Ingham, M l.....................
Kalamazoo, M l................
Kent, Ml .........................
Macomb, M l...................
Oakland, Ml ...................
Ottawa, Ml .....................

166,471
602,983
321,044
160,442
174,290
116,728
339,510
326,600
755,451
115,880

.8
.1
.3
-3.0
-.3
-1.7
-1.8
-3.2
-1.4
-2.5

78
128
106
242
153
221
224
245
211
239

34,929
58,906
37,299
35,995
35,753
33,908
34,570
40,481
45,038
32,246

3.4
4.0
-.9
-.9
2.3
3.8
1.7
-1.0
1.2
.9

Washtenaw, M l...............
Wayne, Ml .....................
Anoka, MN.....................
Dakota, MN....................
Hennepin, MN.................
Ramsey, MN..................
Hinds, M S ......................
Greene, MO...................
Jackson, MO..................
St. Louis, MO..................

195,562
848,463
109,521
155,662
863,674
333,380
134,285
140,739
384,942
641,151

.2
-2.4
-.3
1.3
-.8
.0
-.9
-.9
-2.3
-.8

117
238
154
59
186
131
194
195
235
187

40,249
42,968
34,585
35,683
45,495
40,400
31,138
28,065
37,405
38,929

.2
1.2
1.9
3.8
3.8
3.4
1.8
4.1
3.7
2.1

St. Louis City, MO...........
Douglas, NE ...................
Lancaster, NE.................
Clark, NV .......................
Washoe, NV ..................
Hillsborough, NH ............
Rockingham, NH ............
Atlantic, NJ ................. .
Bergen, NJ.....................
BurìÌngton, N J .................

245,192
325,629
148,200
720,184
193,571
192,712
130,917
141,240
453,626
187,398

-2.2
-.7
.9
3.2
2.4
.0
.7
.9
1.5
3.6

231
177
69
14
28
132
83
70
51
11

40,834
32,866
29,352
32,648
34,231
39,320
36,642
32,555
46,828
38,776

5.8
1.6
2.9
1.6
4.5
.3
2.3
4.8
1.1
3.1

See footnotes at end of table.

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

141

Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data

21. Continued—Annual data: Employment and average annual pay for
all workers covered under Ul and UCFE in the 249 largest U.S.
counties
Employment
County'

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2000-20012

Average annual pay
Ranked by
percent
change,
2000-20013

2001

Percent
change,

2000-20012

Camden, NJ...................
Essex, NJ ......................
Hudson, N J....................
Mercer, N J .....................
Middlesex, N J .................
Monmouth, NJ ................
Morris, NJ ......................
Ocean, NJ......................
Passaic, NJ....................
Somerset, N J..................

199,869
361,569
237,253
215,524
399,332
240,757
277,653
133,657
175,108
176,713

.5
-.5
.0
2.6
1.3
3.2
.4
3.7
-1.1
1.7

95
164
133
25
60
15
101
10
204
44

36,530
46,526
47,638
46,831
47,726
40,399
53,829
31,034
39,192
55,769

4.0
4.2
.4
4.9
2.7
1.8
-11.0
1.9
3.8
1.8

Union, N J.......................
Bernalillo, NM .................
Albany, NY.....................
Bronx, N Y ......................
Dutchess, NY..................
Erie, N Y .........................
Kings, NY.......................
Monroe, NY ...................
Nassau, NY ...................
New York, N Y .................

236,609
309,166
229,957
214,227
112,912
454,839
439,343
393,783
593,368
2,342,338

-.1
.7
-.5
.4
2.5
-1.1
-.1
-.7
-.8
-1.5

139
84
165
102
26
205
140
178
188
214

46,204
31,663
37,848
34,248
38,748
32,103
31,952
36,597
40,599
74,883

2.0
4.9
5.7
4.3
7.4
1.9
3.9
3.3
1.4
3.2

Oneida, N Y ....................
Onondaga, N Y................
Orange, NY....................
Queens, N Y...................
Rockland, NY..................
Suffolk, NY.....................
Westchester, NY.............
Buncombe, NC ...............
Cumberland, NC.............
Durham, NC...................

108,686
249,754
120,903
478,661
107,348
581,938
404,974
105,378
106,381
169,609

-1.8
-1.1
.7
-.7
.4
.1
-.4
-.3
■2.8
.3

225
206
85
179
103
129
161
155
240
107

28,381
33,469
30,218
36,963
38,720
38,706
48,716
28,701
26,981
48,076

4.0
3.0
2.9
5.7
3.9
2.2
3.5
3.8
3.3
-2.6

Forsyth, NC ...................
Guilford, NC...................
Mecklenburg, NC............
Wake, NC ......................
Butler, O H ......................
Cuyahoga, O H ................
Franklin, OH ..................
Hamilton, O H .................
Lorain, OH .....................
Lucas, OH......................

180,155
274,077
514,036
385,777
126,863
796,353
702,628
559,852
103,115
234,678

-.7
-2.0
.3
.9
-.5
-1.6
.2
-1.1
-3.5
-1.7

180
229
108
71
166
217
118
207
247
222

34,693
33,217
41,775
36,996
32,325
37,533
36,090
38,339
32,194
33,088

2.0
3.1
3.1
4.6
2.6
2.8
3.2
2.0
.6
2.6

Mahoning, OH ................
Montgomery, OH ............
Stark, O H .......................
Summit, O H ...................
Oklahoma, O K ................
Tulsa, OK.......................
Clackamas, OR ..............
Lane, O R .......................
Marion, OR ....................
Multnomah, OR ..............

108,769
298,982
173,888
261,098
415,507
342,502
133,997
137,574
126,999
444,393

-3.7
-1.5
-1.6
-2.1
.4
.6
-.2
-1.9
-.6
-1.1

248
215
218
230
104
89
150
227
172
208

26,860
34,783
29,197
33,416
30,161
32,771
33,699
28,983
28,785
37,668

3.5
.7
2.4
2.1
3.2
5.2
3.7
4.0
2.4
2.4

Washington, OR .............
Allegheny, P A .................
Berks, PA.......................
Bucks, P A ......................
Chester, P A ...................
Cumberland, P A .............
Dauphin, PA ..................
Delaware, PA.................
Erie, P A .........................
Lancaster, P A .................

228,453
711,532
165,263
246,491
217,148
122,649
173,292
214,106
128,893
218,415

1.4
.3
-.7
.6
.6
-.6
.3
1.0
-2.3
-.3

53
109
181
90
91
173
110
63
236
156

42,222
38,086
32,807
35,239
44,216
33,996
34,855
38,494
29,293
31,493

-5.0
3.7
2.5
3.5
1.0
3.6
3.5
4.5
3.3
2.2

Lehigh, P A .....................
Luzerne, PA...................
Montgomery, P A .............
Philadelphia, P A .............
Westmoreland, PA..........
York, PA ........................
Providence, R l................
Charleston, S C ...............
Greenville, SC ................
Richland, SC..................

172,860
141,944
485,822
658,827
134,128
165,879
288,650
180,711
226,362
205,841

.2
-.8
.5
-.7
-.4
-1.0
-.7
-1.0

119
189
96
182
162
199
183
200
243
167

35,564
28,924
44,366
40,813
28,827
31,936
34,566
29,013
32,622
30,591

.8
3.8
1.3
2.8
3.0
3.3
3.5
4.8
4.3
3.3

See footnotes at end of table.

142

2001

Percent
change,

February 2004

-3.0

-.5


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

21. Continued—Annual data: Employment and average annual pay for
all workers covered under Ul and UCFE in the 249 largest U.S.
counties
Employment
County1

2001

Percent
change,

2000-20012

Average annual pay
Ranked by
percent
change,
2000-20013

2001

Percent
change,

2000-20012

Spartanburg, S C .............
Minnehaha, S D ...............
Davidson, T N ..................
Hamilton, TN ..................
Knox, TN ........................
Shelby, T N .....................
Bexar, TX .......................
Cameron, T X ..................
Collin, T X .......................
Dallas, T X ......................

117,262
106,717
434,006
187,724
203,470
496,647
655,195
111,374
181,007
1,550,835

-2.2
1.1
-.1
-.3
.6
-.5
.9
2.1
5.7
-.6

232
62
141
157
92
168
72
34
3
174

31,856
29,205
35,509
31,240
30,765
35,791
31,032
22,142
41,338
44,909

4.1
3.5
1.9
2.2
2.2
4.2
3.7
2.7
2.0
1.2

Denton, TX ....................
El Paso, TX ....................
Harris, TX ......................
Hidalgo, T X ....................
Jefferson, T X ..................
Lubbock, TX ..................
Nueces, T X ....................
Tarrant, TX ....................
Travis, TX ......................
Salt Lake, U T..................

122,552
248,407
1,864,100
168,610
118,764
118,042
143,470
709,162
534,861
530,497

.9
-1.2
1.7
3.1
-1.9
2.1
.7
.5
-.7
-.1

73
209
45
17
228
35
86
97
184
142

30,788
25,847
43,751
22,313
32,570
26,577
29,406
37,287
41,698
33,210

5.1
3.1
4.5
2.8
4.1
1.1
4.3
5.2
.9
3.2

Utah, U T ........................
Arlington, VA..................
Chesterfield, VA..............
Fairfax, V A .....................
Henrico, VA ...................
Norfolk, VA ....................
Richmond, VA.................
Virginia Beach, VA..........
Clark, WA ......................
King, WA........................

143,423
159,170
107,721
542,984
169,827
146,414
164,906
166,007
114,716
1,146,191

.5
.3
-.1
2.7
2.0
.8
-.7
.9
2.1
-.9

98
111
143
24
38
79
185
74
36
196

28,266
55,390
32,957
52,641
37,869
33,504
40,173
26,750
33,125
47,186

1.3
4.8
3.4
2.1
4.8
4.1
4.0
5.3
3.0
-.6

Pierce, W A.....................
Snohomish, W A..............
Spokane, WA.................
Kanawha, W V.................
Brown, W l......................
Dane, W l........................
Milwaukee, Wl ................
Waukesha, Wl ................

238,600
209,657
190,057
111,552
141,950
279,208
522,022
224,721

-1.5
-.3
.0
-.8
-.3
1.9
-.8
.6

216
158
134
190
159
40
191
93

31,261
36,388
29,310
31,601
32,631
34,097
35,736
37,092

4.7
3.6
-1.5
4.8
3.5
3.9
2.9
3.7

San Juan, PR .................

324,791

-.5

169

22,179

4.1

1 Includes areas not officially designated as
counties.
See Notes on Current Labor
Statistics.

4
Totals for the United States do not include
data for Puerto Rico.

2 Percent changes were computed from
annual employment and pay data adjusted for
noneconomic county reclassifications.
See
Notes on Current Labor Statistics.

Note: Data pertain to workers covered by
Unemployment
Insurance
(Ul)
and
Unemployment Compensation for Federal
Employees (UCFE) programs. The 248 U.S.
counties comprise 66.2 percent of the total
covered workers in the United States.

3 Rankings for percent change in
employment are based on the 249 counties that
are comparable over the year.

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

143

Current Labor Statistics: Labor Force Data

22.

Annual data: Employment status of the population

[Numbers in thousands]
E m p lo y m e n t s ta tu s

Civilian noninstitutional population.........
Civilian labor force.............................
Labor force participation rate............
Employed.....................................
Employment-population ratio.......
Unemployed.................................
Unemployment rate.....................
Not in the labor force..........................

1993

19941

1995

1996

19971

19981

19991

20001

2001

2002

2003

194,838
129,200
66.3
120,259
61.7
8,940
6.9
65,638

196,814
131,056
66.6
123,060
62.5
7,996
6.1
65,758

198,584
132,304
66.6
124,900
62.9
7,404
5.6
66,280

200,591
133,943
66.8
126,708
63.2
7,236
5.4
66,647

203,133
136,297
67.1
129,558
63.8
6,739
4.9
66,836

205,220
137,673
67.1
131,463
64.1
6,210
4.5
67,547

207,753
139,368
67.1
133,488
64.3
5,880
4.2
68,385

212,577
142,583
67.1
136,891
64.4
5,692
4.0
69,994

215,092
143,734
66.8
136,933
63.7
6,801
4.7
71,359

217,570
144,863
66.6
136,485
62.7
8,378
5.8
72,707

221,168
146,510
66.2
137,736
62.3
8,774
6.0
74,658

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

1 Not strictly comparable with prior years.

23.

Annual data: Employment levels by industry

[In thousands]
In d u s try

1993

1994

1995

Total private employment..........................

91,855

95,016

97,866

100,169

103,113

106,021

108,686

110,996

110,707

108,886

108,554

Total nonfarm employment.......................
Goods-producing...................................

110,844
22,219
666
4,779
16,744

114,291
22,774
659
5,095
17,021

117,298
23,156
641
5,274
17,241

119,708
23,410
637
5,536
17,237

122,770
23,886
654
5,813
17,419

125,930
24,354
645
6,149
17,560

128,993
24,465
598
6,545
17,322

131,785
24,649
599
6,787
17,263

131,826
23,873
606
6,826
16,441

130,376
22,619
581
6,732
15,306

130,045
22,064
566
6,797
14,701

Financial activities.............................
Professional and business services....
Education and health services............
Leisure and hospitality.......................
Other services...................................

69,636
22,378
5,093.2
13,020.5
3,553.8
710.7
2,668
6,709
11,495
12,303
9,732
4,350

72,242
23,128
5,247.3
13,490.8
3,701.0
689.3
2,738
6,867
12,174
12,807
10,100
4,428

74,710
23,834
5,433.1
13,896.7
3,837.8
666.2
2,843
6,827
12,844
13,289
10,501
4,572

76,759
24,239
5,522.0
14,142.5
3,935.3
639.6
2,940
6,969
13,462
13,683
10,777
4,690

79,227
24,700
5,663.9
14,388.9
4,026.5
620.9
3,084
7,178
14,335
14,087
11,018
4,825

81,667
25,186
5,795.2
14,609.3
4,168.0
613.4
3,218
7,462
15,147
14,446
11,232
4,976

84,221
25,771
5,892.5
14,970.1
4,300.3
608.5
3,419
7,648
15,957
14,798
11,543
5,087

86,346
26,225
5,933.2
15,279.8
4,410.3
601.3
3,631
7,687
16,666
15,109
11,862
5,168

86,834
25,983
5,772.7
15,238.6
4,372.0
599.4
3,629
7,807
16,476
15,645
12,036
5,258

86,267
25,493
5,641.0
15,047.2
4,205.3
599.8
3,420
7,843
16,010
16,184
11,969
5,348

86,480
25,266
5,570.0
14,975.9
4,127.0
592.7
3,286
7,959
16,063
16,526
12,062
5,319

Government............................................

18,989

19,275

19,432

19,539

19,664

19,909

20,307

20,790

21,118

21,489

21,500

Construction.......................................
Private service-providing.......................
Trade, transportation, and utilities........
Wholesale trade...............................
Transportation and warehousing......

Note: Data reflect the conversion to the 2002 version of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), replacing the Standard Industrrial Classification (SIC)
system. NAiCS-based data by industry are not comparable with sic-based data. See "Notes on the data" for a description of the most recent benchmark revision.

144

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

24. Annual data: Average hours and earnings of production or nonsupervisory workers on nonfarm
payrolls, by industry
In d u s tr y

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

Private sector:
34.3
11.03
378.40

34.5
11.32
390.73

34.3
11.64
399.53

34.3
12.03
412.74

34.5
12.49
431.25

34.5
13.00
448.04

34.3
13.47
462.49

34.3
14.00
480.41

34.0
14.53
493.20

33.9
14.95
506.22

33.8
15.38
519.56

40.6
12.28
498.82

41.1
12.63
519.58

40.8
12.96
528.62

40.8
13.38
546.48

41.1
13.82
568.43

40.8
14.23
580.99

40.8
14.71
599.99

40.7
15.27
621.86

39.9
15.78
630.04

39.9
16.33
651.60

39.8
16.80
669.33

44.9
14.12
634.77

45.3
14.41
653.14

45.3
14.78
670.32

46.0
15.10
695.07

46.2
15.57
720.11

44.9
16.20
727.28

44.2
16.33
721.74

44.4
16.55
734.92

44.6
17.00
757.92

43.2
17.22
743.11

43.6
17.65
769.96

38.4
14.04
539.81

38.8
14.38
558.53

38.8
14.73
571.57

38.9
15.11
588.48

38.9
15.67
609.48

38.8
16.23
629.75

39.0
16.80
655.11

39.2
17.48
685.78

38.7
18.00
695.89

38.4
18.51
711.61

38.4
18.95
727.49

41.1
11.70
480.80

41.7
12.04
502.12

41.3
12.34
509.26

41.3
12.75
526.55

41.7
13.14
548.22

41.4
13.45
557.12

41.4
13.85
573.17

41.3
14.32
590.65

40.3
14.76
595.19

40.5
15.29
618.87

40.4
15.74
636.13

32.5
10.60
345.03

32.7
10.87
354.97

32.6
11.19
364.14

32.6
11.57
376.72

32.8
12.05
394.77

32.8
12.59
412.78

32.7
13.07
427.30

32.7
13.60
445.00

32.5
14.16
460.32

32.5
14.56
473.10

32.4
15.00
480.54

34.1
10.55
359.33

34.3
10.80
370.38

34.1
11.10
378.79

34.1
11.46
390.64

34.3
11.90
407.57

34.2
12.39
423.30

33.9
12.82
434.31

33.8
13.31
449.88

33.5
13.70
459.53

33.6
14.02
471.09

33.5
14.34
480.54

38.5
12.57
484.46

38.8
12.93
501.17

38.6
13.34
515.14

38.6
13.80
533.29

38.8
14.41
559.39

38.6
15.07
582.21

38.6
15.62
602.77

38 8
16.28
631.40

38.4
16.77
643.45

38.0
16.97
643.99

37.9
17.32
655.90

30.7
8.36
484.46

30.9
8.61
501.17

30.8
8.85
515.14

30.7
9.21
533.29

30.9
9.59
559.39

30.9
10.05
582.21

30.8
10.45
602.77

30.7
10.86
631.40

30.7
11.29
643.45

30.9
11.67
643.99

30.8
11 91
655.90

38.9
12.71
494.36

39.5
12.84
507.27

38.9
13.18
513.37

39.1
13.45
525.60

39.4
13.78
542.55

38.7
14.12
546.86

37.6
14.55
547.97

37.4
15.05
562.31

36.7
15.33
562.70

36 8
15.77
580.68

36.9
15.77
600.95

42.1
17.95
756.35

42.3
18.66
789.98

42.3
19.19
811.52

42.0
19.78
830.74

42.0
20.59
865.26

42.0
21.48
902.94

42.0
22.03
924.59

42.0
22.75
955.66

41.4
23.58
977.18

40.9
23.94
978.44

41.0
24.73
1014.25

36.0
14.86
535.25

36.0
15.32
551.28

36.0
15.68
564.98

36.4
16.30
592.68

36.3
17.14
622.40

36.6
17.67
646.52

36.7
18.40
675.32

36.8
19.07
700.89

36.9
19.80
731.11

36.5
20.23
739.41

36.3
21.10
766.17

35.5
11.36
403.02

35.5
11.82
419.20

35.5
12.28
436.12

35.5
12.71
451.49

35.7
13.22
472.37

36.0
13.93
500.95

35.8
14.47
517.57

35.9
14.98
537.37

35.8
15.59
558.02

35.6
16 17
575.43

35.5
17.09
607.09

34.0
11.96
406.20

34.1
12.15
414.16

34.0
12.53
426.44

34.1
13.00
442.81

34.3
13.57
465.51

34.3
14.27
490.00

34.4
14.85
510.99

34.5
15.52
535.07

34.2
16.33
557.84

34.2
16.81
574.59

34.1
17 24
587.57

32.0
11.21
359.08

32.0
11.50
368.14

32.0
11.80
377.73

31.9
12.17
388.27

32.2
12.56
404.65

32.2
13.00
418.82

32.1
13.44
431.35

32.2
13.95
449.29

32.3
14.64
473.39

32.4
15.22
493.02

32.5
15.70
510.76

25.9
6.32
163.45

26.0
6.46
168.00

25.9
6.62
171.43

25.9
6.82
176.48

26.0
7.13
185.81

26.2
7.48
195.82

26.1
7.76
202.87

26.1
8.11
211.79

25.8
8.35
215.19

25.8
8.57
221.15

25.6
8.74
223.86

32.6
9.90
322.69

32.7
10.18
332.44

32.6
10.51
342.36

32.5
10.85
352.62

32.7
11.29
368.63

32.6
11.79
384.25

32.5
12.26
398.77

32.5
12.73
413.41

32.3
13.27
428.64

32.0
13.72
439.65

31.8
13.98
443.94

Goods-producing:

Natural resources and mining

Construction:

Manufacturing:

Private service-providing:
Average hourly earnings (in dollars)....................
Trade, transportation, and utilities:

Wholesale trade:

Retail trade:

Transportation and warehousing:

Utilities:

Information:

Financial activities:

Professional and business services:

Education and health services:

Leisure and hospitality:

Other services:

NOTE: Data reflect the conversion to the 2002 version of the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), replacing the Standard Industrial Classification
(SIC) system. NAiCS-based data by industry are not comparable with SIC-based data.


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

145

Current Labor Statistics: Compensation & Industrial Relations

25.

Employment Cost Index, compensation,1 by occupation and industry group

[June 1989 = 100]
2001

S e rie s

Dec.

2002

M a r.

June

2003

S e p t.

Dec.

M a r.

June

P e rc e n t c h a n g e

S e p t.

3 m o n th s

1 2 m o n th s

ended

ended

Dec.

Dec. 2003

Civilian workers2...................................................................

156.8

158.4

159.9

161.3

162.2

164.5

165.8

167.6

168.4

0.5

3.8

Workers, by occupational group:
White-collar workers......................................................
Professional specialty and technical.............................
Executive, adminitrative, and managerial......................
Administrative support, including clerical.......................
Blue-collar workers.......................................................
Service occupations......................................................

158.9
157.5
161.2
160.0
152.0
156 9

160.5
158.5
163.7
162.0
153.7
158.4

162.1
159.3
165 6
163 3
155 1
159.4

163.5
161.4
166 3
164 9
156 4
161.3

164.3
162.4
166 7
166 1
167 6
162.2

166.7
164.1
171 1
168 3
15 Q 8
164.1

167.9
165.0
17? 0
170 Q

169.9
167.0

170.7
168.0

.5
.6

3.9
3.4
4.9

165.0

166.8

167.9

.7

o.o

154.4
154.6
157 6
159.0
158.3
160.0
156.6
155.2
157.2

156.3
156.6
159 1
160.2
160.5
162.3
157.1
156.5
158.7

157.7
158.1
160 7
161.1
161.8
163.8
157.4
157.5
160.2

158.7
159.1
16? ?
163.2
163.1
165.7
161.6
160.2
161.7

169.2
160.5
16? 8
163.9
164.5
167.6
162.8
161.7
162.4

163.1
164.0

164.6
165.4

165.8
166.5

166.8
167.1

.5
.4

4.0
4.1

165.3
166.4
169.9
163.6
163.4
164.5

166.3
167.6
170.8
164.2
164.3
165.8

168.5
169.3
173.1
166.9
167.3
167.8

169.5
170.7
174.8
167.6
168.1
168.6

.6
.8
1.0
.4
.5
.5

3.4
3.8
4.3
2.9
4.0
3.8

Excluding sales occupations.......................................

157.2
157.2

158.9
159.0

160.7
160.5

161.6
161.6

162.3
162.4

165.0
165.1

166.4
166.6

168.1
168.1

168.8
169.0

.4
.5

4.0
4.1

Workers, by occupational group:
White-collar workers....................................................
Excluding sales occupations.....................................
Professional specialty and technical occupations.........
Executive, adminitrative, and managerial occupations..
Sales occupations.....................................................
Administrative support occupations, including clerical...
Blue-collar workers.....................................................
Precision production, craft, and repair occupations......
Machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors..........
Transportation and material moving occupations.........
Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, and laborers....

160.1
160.9
160.3
161.8
156.7
160.8
151 9
152.5
151.5
146.3
156.5

161.9
162.8
161.5
164.4
157.7
162.8
153 6
153.7
153.6
148.7
158.7

163.8
164.3
162.5
166.6
161.6
164.2
155 1
155.7
154.7
149.6
159.9

164.6
165.3
163.6
167.0
161.6
165.6
156 3
156.9
155.4
151.0
161.4

165.2
165.9
164.4
167.2
161.9
166.7

168.1
169.1
166.5
172.1
163.5
169.0

169.4
170.4
167.7
173.1
165.1
170.9

171.2
172.1
169.4
175.0
167.2
172.3

172.0
173.0
170.5
175.9
167.1
173.2

.5
.5
.6
.5
-.1
.5

4.1
4.3
3.7
5.2
3.2
3.8

157.8
156.7
151.8
162.9

160.0
159.9
153.2
164.9

162.0
161.1
155.1
166.8

163.1
162.6
156.7
168.6

164.2
163.2
156.9
169.5

.7
.4
.1
.5

4.1
4.1
3.4
4.1

Service occupations....................................................

154.8

156.4

157.4

159.0

159.8

161.7

162.6

163.8

164.3

.7

3.2

Production and nonsupervisory occupations4...............

155.5

157.1

158.7

159.7

160.5

162.6

164.1

165.7

166.6

.5

3.8

Workers, by industry division:
Goods-producing.........................................................
Excluding sales occupations..................................
White-collar occupations..........................................
Excluding sales occupations..................................
Blue-collar occupations............................................
Construction..............................................................
Manufacturing...........................................................
White-collar occupations..........................................
Excluding sales occupations..................................
Blue-collar occupations............................................
Durables...................................................................
Nondurables..............................................................

154.4
153.7
158.1
156.5
151.9
153.0
154.6
156.9
154.7
152.7
155.3
153.2

156.2
155.5
160.1
158.4
153.6
154.1
156.6
159.1
156.7
154.6
156.9
156.0

157.6
156.9
161.9
160.2
154.8
155.2
158.1
161.1
158.6
155.8
158.3
157.5

158.6
157.9
162.9
161.1
155.9
156.3
159.1
162.2
159.6
156.7
158.9
159.2

160.1
159.2
164.3
162.3
157.3
157.9
160.5
163.3
160.7
158.3
160.6
160.3

163.0
162.4
167.8
166.3
159.9
159.1
164.0
167.1
165.1
161.6
164.4
163.1

164.5
163.8
169.2
167.5
161.5
161.1
165.4
168.7
166.4
162.8
165.5
164.9

165.7
165.0
170.1
168.5
162.9
162.3
166.5
169.5
167.4
164.1
166.6
166.0

166.5
165.9
170.5
169.2
163.9
163.3
167.1
169.6
167.8
165.1
167.3
166.6

.5
.5
.2
.4
.6
.6
.4
.1
.2
.6
.4
.4

4.2
3.8
4.3
4.2
3.4
4.1
3.9
4.4
4.3
4.2
3.9

Service-producing........................................................
Excluding sales occupations...................................
White-collar occupations..........................................
Excluding sales occupations..................................
Blue-collar occupations............................................
Service occupations................................................
Transportation and public utilities...............................
Transportation.........................................................
Public utilities...........................................................
Communications...................................................
Electric, gas, and sanitary services........................
Wholesale and retail trade.........................................
Excluding sales occupations..................................
Wholesale trade......................................................
Excluding sales occupations..................................
Retail trade..............................................................
General merchandise stores...................................
Food stores...........................................................

158.2
159.0
160.3
162.2
151.4
154.2
155.5
151.1
161.5
163.4
159.1
155.5
157.1
159.5
160.6
153.2
150.9
151.7

159.9
160.9
162.1
164.1
153.2
155.9
157.3
152.5
163.9
166.0
161.3
156.5
157.5
161.9
162.3
153.5
152.4
152.9

161.8
162.4
164.0
165.6
155.2
157.0
158.9
153.9
165.5
166.1
164.8
159.5
160.0
166.3
164.4
155.6
154.2
154.5

162.7
163.5
164.7
166.5
156.6
158.5
160.8
155.4
168.2
169.0
167.2
159.6
160.3
165.9
166.1
156.0
156.1
156.3

163.1
164.0
165.1
167.0
156.9
159.3
161.7
156.1
169.2
170.1
168.1
159.7
160.4
166.7
167.2
155.8
155.1
156.3

165.6
166.6
167.9
169.9
158.7
161.1
163.2
157.8
170.5
171.3
169.5
161.3
161.8
169.5
168.4
156.6
156.4
157.5

167.0
168.0
169.2
171.3
160.8
162.0
165.4
158.9
174.2
175.5
172.6
162.5
162.7
171.3
169.9
157.4
159.2
158.6

168.8
169.7
171.2
173.1
162.2
163.2
166.5
159.4
176.4
178.4
173.8
164.3
165.0
172.0
171.2
159.9
161.2
159.3

169.7
170.6
172.0
174.2
162.6
164.3
167.0
159.6
177.0
179.0
174.6
165.0
165.9
172.0
171.3
161.0
165.6
160.3

.5
.5
.5
.6
.2
.7
.3
.1
.3
.3
.5
.4
.5
.0
.1
.7
2.7
.6

4.0
4.0
4.2
4.3
3.6
3.1
3.3
2.2
4.6
5.2
3.9
3.3
3.4
3.2
2.5
3.3
6.8
2.6

Workers, by industry division:
Goods-producing...........................................................
Manufacturing.............................................................
Service-producing.........................................................
Services.....................................................................
Health services..........................................................
Hospitals.................................................................
Educational services.................................................
Public administration3...................................................
Nonmanufacturing.........................................................
Private industry workers....................................................

See footnotes at end of table.

146

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

157 3

25. Continued—Employment Cost Index, compensation,1 by occupation and industry group
[June 1989 = 100]______________________________________________________________________________
2001

S e rie s

Dec.

2002

2002

M a r.

June

S e p t.

Dec.

M a r.

June

P e rc e n t c h a n g e

S e p t.

3 m o n th s

1 2 m o n th s

ended

ended

Dec.

Dec. 2003

Health services........................................................
Hospitals...............................................................
Educational services................................................
Colleges and universities.......................................

161,3
165.0
174.5
161.3
161.0
166.2
158.4
160.3
167.6
167.5

165.2
169.8
182.1
164.0
162.6
166.3
160.6
162.8
168.5
168.1

167.3
171.3
184.2
166.1
163.7
166.6
162.0
164.5
169.0
168.4

168.0
172.1
184.6
167.1
164.9
167.2
163.2
166.2
173.5
172.0

168.5
173.1
185.3
167.9
165.4
167.5
164.4
168.1
175.2
173.7

176.7
182.0
204.3
172.1
167.1
168.5
166.5
170.8
176.3
174.5

180.2
178.3
184.0 1,853.0
207.6
206.3
175.1
173.9
168.4
170.4
169.2
171.9
167.9
169.4
171.9
173.9
177.1
180.2
175.4
178.4

180.9
186.1
209.0
176.2
171.4
172.6
170.8
175.9
181.3
179.4

0.4
.4
.7
.6
.6
.4
.8
1.2
.6
.6

7.4
7.5
12.8
4.9
3.6
3.0
3.9
4.6
3.5
3.3

Nonmanufacturing.....................................................
White-collar workers................................................
Excluding sales occupations.................................
Blue-collar occupations............................................
Service occupations.................................................

157.6
160.5
162.3
150.6
154.1

159.3
162.2
164.2
152.2
155.9

161.1
164.1
165.7
154.0
156.9

162.0
164.8
166.6
155.4
158.4

162.5
165.3
167.1
155.9
159.2

164.9
168.0
170.0
157.5
161.1

166.4
169.3
171.4
159.7
162.0

168.1
171.2
173.2
161.1
163.2

169.0
172.1
174.2
161.7
162.4

.5
.5
.6
.4
.6

4.0
4.1
4.2
3.7
3.1

State and local government workers...................................

155.2

156.1

156.7

160.1

161.5

162.6

163.2

165.9

166.8

.5

3.3

Workers, by occupational group:
White-collar workers......................................................
Professional specialty and technical.............................
Executive, administrative, and managerial.....................
Administrative support, including clerical.......................
Blue-collar workers.......................................................

154.4
153.2
157.6
155.6
153.2

155.2
153.6
159.5
156.9
154.0

155.7
154.1
159.6
158.0
154.7

159.3
158.1
162.3
161.0
158.4

160.7
159.4
163.8
162.4
159.8

161.7
160.2
165.3
163.8
161.3

162.2
160.8
165.7
164.4
161.7

164.9
163.4
168.0
167.9
163.6

165.7
164.1
169.1
168.5
165.2

.5
.4
.7
4.0
1.0

3.1
2.9
3.2
3.8
3.4

154.9
156.1
158.5
159.1
154.5
154.8
153.1
159.6
155.2

155.5
157.9
160.4
160.7
154.8
155.1
153.4
160.0
156.5

155.9
158.7
161.4
161.8
155.1
155.4
153.6
160.4
157.9

159.7
161.0
163.5
164.1
159.2
159.6
157.7
164.7
160.2

160.9
162.8
165.5
166.2
160.3
160.7
158.8
165.8
161.7

161.8
164.0
166.4
167.0
161.1
161.4
159.4
167.0
163.4

162.3
164.2
166.7
167.3
161.7
162.0
160.0
167.5
164.3

164.9
166.8
169.5
170.3
164.3
164.7
163.0
169.2
167.3

165.7
168.2
171.0
171.4
165.0
165.3
163.7
170.0
168.1

.5
.8
.9
.6
.4
.4
.4
.5
.5

3.0
3.3
3.3
3.1
2.9
2.9
3.1
2.5
4.0

Finance, insurance, and real estate............................
Excluding sales occupations..................................
Banking, savings and loan, and other credit agencies.
Insurance................................................................
Services....................................................................

Workers, by industry division:
Services......................................................................
Services excluding schools5........................................
Health services........................................................
Hospitals..............................................................
Schools...............................................................
Elementary and secondary..................................
Colleges and universities.....................................
Public administration3...................................................

1 Cost (cents per hour worked) measured in the Employment Cost Index consists of
wages, salaries, and employer cost of employee benefits.
2 Consists of private industry workers (excluding farm and household workers) and
State and local government (excluding Federal Government) workers.


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

3 Consists of legislative, judicial, administrative, and regulatory activities.
4 This series has the same industry and occupational coverage as the Hourly
Earnings index, which was discontinued in January 1989.
5 Includes, for example, library, social, and health services.

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

147

Current Labor Statistics: Compensation & Industrial Relations

26.

Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries, by occupation and industry group

[June 1989 = 100]
2001

2002

2003

P e rc e n t c h a n g e

S e rie s
Dec.

M a r.

June

S e p t.

Dec.

M a r.

June

S e p t.

Dec.

3 m o n th s

12 m o n th s

ended

ended

Dec. 2003

Civilian workers1...................................................................

153.4

154.8

156.1

157.2

157.8

159.3

160.3

161.8

162.3

0.3

2.9

Workers, by occupational group:
White-collar workers......................................................
Professional specialty and technical.............................
Executive, admlnltrative, and managerial......................
Administrative support, including clerical.......................
Blue-collar workers.......................................................
Service occupations......................................................

155.6
155.1
158.1
155.7
148.5
153.0

157.0
155.6
160.7
157.3
149.7
154.2

158.4
156.2
162.6
158.4
151.0
155.1

159.6
158.0
163.5
159.6
151.9
'56.2

160.1
158.6
163.8
160.6
152.6
156.9

161.9
159.3
167.9
161.8
153.8
158.0

162.9
160.1
169.0
163.1
154.8
158.7

164.5
161.8
170.5
164.3
155.8
159.8

165.1
162.5
171.2
164.9
156.3
160.6

.4
.4
.4
.4
.3
.5

3.1
2.5
4.5
2.7
2.4
2.4

Workers, by industry division:
Goods-producing...........................................................
Manufacturing.............................................................
Service-producing.........................................................
Services.....................................................................
Health services..........................................................
Hospitals.................................................................
Educational services.................................................

150.5
151.7
154.5
157.1
155.5
155.5
155.1

151.8
153.1
155.9
158.1
157.3
157.2
155.3

153.1
154.5
157.2
158.8
158.5
158.6
155.6

153.9
155.4
156.4
160.7
159.6
160.3
159.3

155.1
156.5
158 8
161.1
160.9
162.2
160.1

156.3
158.0
160 5
161.9
162.0
163.5
160.4

157.5
159.0
1fi1 4
162.8
163.2
164.4
160.7

158.3
159.7
163 n
164.7
164.7
166.3
162.7

160.6
160.1
1fi3 fi
165.4
165.9
167.7
163.2

.3
.3

2.3
2.3

.4
.7
.8
.3

2.7
3.1
3.4
1.9

Public administration2...................................................
Nonmanufacturing.........................................................

151.6
153.8

152.5
155.0

153.4
156.4

154.8
157.5

155.8
158.0

157.2
159.6

158.0
160.5

159.4
162.1

160.0
162.7

.4
.4

2.7
3.0

Private industry workers....................................................

153.3
153.3

154.7
154.9

156.3
156.1

157.0
157.0

157.5
157.9

159.3
159.4

160.4
160.5

161.7
161.7

162.3
162.4

.4
.4

3.0
3.1

156.1
156.9
155.9
158.6
152.6
156.5
148.3
148,4
149.0
142.8
152.4

157.7
158.6
156.7
161.3
153.6
158.2
149.6
149.2
150.5
144.8
154.2

159.4
160.0
157.4
163.6
157.0
159.2
150.9
151.0
151.6
145.2
155.1

160.0
169.8
158.2
164.3
156.9
160.3
151.7
151.8
152.0
146.3
156.0

160.4
160.8
158.5
164.5
156.8
161.3
152 4
152.3
153.2
146.9
157.2

162.6
163.6
159.5
169.1
158.1
162.6
158 6
153.4
154.7
147.8
158.4

163.8
164.8
160.5
170.3
159.3
164.0
154 6
154.7
155.3
149.0
159.0

165.3
166.2
162.1
171.8
161.6
165.1
155 fi
155.5
156.8
149.8
159.9

165.9
167.0
163.0
172.5
161.1
165.7
1fifi 1
156.2
156.9
149.8
160.6

.4
.5
.6
.4
-.3
.4
3
.5
.1
.0
.4

3.4
3.5
2.8
4.9
2.7
2.7

Excluding sales occupations.......................................
Workers, by occupational group:
White-collar workers....................................................
Excluding sales occupations.....................................
Professional specialty and technical occupations.........
Executive, adminitrative, and managerial occupations..
Sales occupations.....................................................
Administrative support occupations, including clerical...
Precision production, craft, and repair occupations.......
Machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors..........
Transportation and material moving occupations.........
Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, and laborers....

2.6
2.4
2.0
2.2

Service occupations....................................................

150.6

152.0

152.8

153.9

154.4

155.5

156.1

157.1

157.8

.4

2.1

Production and nonsupervisory occupations3...............

151.5

152.7

154.0

154.7

155.2

156.4

157.4

158.8

159.4

.4

2.7

Workers, by industry division:
Goods-producing.........................................................
Excluding sales occupations..................................
White-collar occupations..........................................
Excluding sales occupations..................................
Blue-collar occupations............................................
Construction..............................................................
Manufacturing...........................................................
White-collar occupations..........................................
Excluding sales occupations..................................
Blue-collar occupations............................................
Durables...................................................................
Nondurables.............................................................

150.5
149.7
153.6
151.7
148.4
146.3
151.7
153.3
151.0
150.3
151.7
153.9

151.7
150.9
155.0
152.9
149.6
147.0
153.1
154.9
152.3
151.7
153.9
151.9

153.1
152.2
156.6
154.5
150.7
148.2
154.4
156.6
153.9
152.8
155.3
153.1

153.9
153.0
157.9
155.4
151.5
149.0
155.4
157.7
155.0
153.5
156.0
154.4

155.0
154.0
158.6
156.3
152.6
150.2
156.5
158.6
155.9
154.7
157.3
155.2

156.3
155.4
160.0
158.0
153.8
150.6
158.0
160.1
157.7
156.3
158.8
156.6

157.4
156.5
161.4
159.2
154.8
152.4
159.0
161.6
158.9
156.9
159.7
157.8

158.3
157.4
161.9
159.9
155.9
153.6
159.7
162.0
159.5
157.9
160.6
158.3

158.7
158.0
162.1
160.4
156.4
154.0
160.1
162.1
160.0
158.5
160.9
158.7

.3
.4
.1
.3
.3
.3
.3
.1
.3
.4
.2
.3

2.4
2.6
2.2
2.6
2.5
2.5
2.3
2.2
2.6
2.5
2.3
2.3

Service-producing........................................................
Excluding sales occupations.................................
White-collar occupations..........................................
Excluding sales occupations.................................
Blue-collar occupations............................................
Service occupations................................................
Transportation and public utilities...............................
Transportation.........................................................
Public utilities...........................................................
Communications...................................................
Electric, gas, and sanitary services........................
Wholesale and retail trade.........................................
Excluding sales occupations.................................
Wholesale trade.......................................................
Excluding sales occupations.................................
Retail trade.............................................................
General merchandise stores...................................
Food stores...........................................................

151.9
156.1
157.2
158.2
148.1
149.4
149.2
145.7
153.6
155.2
151.7
152.1
154.8
157.9
150.7
146.5
146.7

156.1
157.2
158.2
160.4
149.4
151.6
150.5
147.4
154.3
155.3
153.0
153.0
157.2
159.4
150.9
147.9
148.0

157.7
158.5
159.9
161.6
151.1
152.4
152.1
148.6
156.4
157.1
155.5
155.7
161.3
161.2
152.7
148.9
148.9

158.4
159.3
160.5
162.5
151.8
153.5
153.4
149.6
158.2
159.6
156.5
155.5
160.4
162.6
152.9
150.1
150.1

158.6
159.6
160.7
162.8
152.0
154.1
154.1
150.1
159.3
160.7
157.4
155.5
161.0
163.7
152.7
149.2
150.3

160.6
161.7
163.0
165.3
153.2
155.1
154.8
150.5
160.4
161.9
158.6
156.7

161.7
162.8
164.1
166.5
154.3
155.6
155.6
150.6
162.1
163.4
160.4
157.5

163.3
164.2
166.0
168.2
155.1
156.6
156.0
150.4
163.4
165.4
161.0
159.2

163.9
165.0
166.6
169.0
155.4
157.4
156.5
150.8
164.1
165.9
161.8
159.5

.4
.5
.4
.5
.2
.5
.3
.3
.4
.5
.2
1.1

3.3
3.4
3.7
3.8
2.2
2.1
1.6
.5
3.0
3.2
2.8
2.6

See footnotes at end of table.

148

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-

163.4
163.9
153.1
149.8
151.0

-

164.7
165.2
153.8
152.0
151.6

-

164.8
165.7
156.3
153.1
152.2

-

165.3
166.3
156.5
153.6
152.8

-

.3
.4
.1
.3
.4

-

2.7
1.6
2.5
2.9
1.7

26. Continued—Employment Cost Index, wages and salaries, by occupation and industry group
[June 1989 = 100]__________________________________________________________________________________
2002

2001

P e rc e n t c h a n g e

2003

3 m o n th s

1 2 m o n th s

ended

ended

S e rie s
Dec.

M a r.

June

S e p t.

Dec.

M a r.

June

S e p t.

Dec.

Dec. 2003

Health services........................................................
Hospitals...............................................................
Educational services...............................................
Colleges and universities.......................................

156.0
159.1
171.7
155.0
158.2
163.7
155.4
155.4
160.5
159.6

160.3
164.5
181.2
157.1
159.5
164.0
157.3
157.1
161.2
159.9

162.0
165.7
182.8
158.6
160.3
164.0
158.4
158.6
161.2
159.9

162.4
166.1
182.7
159.6
161.5
164.6
159.9
160.2
165.2
163.1

162.6
167.3
183.9
159.1
161.7
164.8
160.7
162.1
166.5
164.3

171.1
176.7
206.4
161.6
162.8
165.6
161.9
163.6
167.1
164.4

172.4
178.5
208.7
163.0
164.0
166.4
163.2
164.6
167.5
165.1

174.1
179.2
209.1
163.9
165.9
169.1
164.6
166.5
170.3
167.6

174.5
210.2
164.5
164.5
166.7
169.8
135.8
167.9
171.0
168.4

0.2
.3
.5
.4
.5
.4
.7
.8
.4
.5

7.3
7.5
14.3
3.4
3.1
3.0
3.2
3.6
2.7
2.5

Nonmanufacturing.....................................................
White-collar workers................................................
Excluding sales occupations.................................
Blue-collar occupations............................................
Service occupations................................................

153.5
156.4
158.3
146.4
150.1

155.0
158.0
160.1
147.5
151.4

156.5
159.6
161.3
149.0
152.3

157.2
160.2
162.1
149.8
153.4

157.5
160.5
162.5
150.2
154.0

159.4
162.8
164.9
151.1
155.0

160.5
163.9
166.1
152.4
155.5

162.1
165.7
167.7
153.4
156.5

162.6
166.3
168.5
153.8
157.3

.3
.4
.5
.3
.5

3.2
3.6
3.7
2.4
2.1

State and local government workers..................................

155.2

156.1

156.7

160.1

161.5

162.6

163.2

165.9

166.8

.4

2.1

153.3
153.4
155.1
150.9
150.8

153.9
153.6
156.6
151.9
151.6

154.4
154.1
156.8
152.8
152.1

157.4
157.5
159.0
155.1
154.5

158.4
158.4
160.1
156.0
155.1

158.9
158.8
160.9
156.9
156.2

159.2
159.1
161.0
157.2
156.5

161.0
161.0
162.5
159.1
157.6

161.5
161.4
163.3
159.5
158.3

.3
.2
.5
.3
.4

2.0
1.9
2.0
2.2
2.1

154.2

154.6

155.0

158.4

159.2

159.5

159.8

161.6

162.1

.3

1.8

154.9
155.8
155.7
154.0
154.1
153.1
156.7

156.7
157.8
157.7
154.2
154.3
153.4
156.8

157.3
158.6
158.8
154.5
154.6
153.6
157.3

159.1
160.5
160.6
158.1
158.3
157.4
160.7

160.3
162.2
162.5
158.9
159.0
158.1
161.6

161.4
162.9
163.1
159.1
159.2
158.2
162.1

161.8
163.5
163.8
159.3
159.5
158.5
162.1

163.2
165.1
165.5
161.2
161.4
160.6
163.5

164.5
166.7
166.7
161.6
161.8
160.9
164.0

.8
1.0
.7
.2
.2
.2
.3

2.6
2.8
2.6
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.5

Finance, insurance, and real estate............................
Excluding sales occupations..................................
Banking, savings and loan, and other credit agencies.
Insurance................................................................
Services....................................................................

Workers, by occupational group:
White-collar workers......................................................
Professional specialty and technical.............................
Executive, administrative, and managerial....................
Administrative support, including clerical.......................
Workers, by industry division:
Services.....................................................................
4

Services excluding schools........................................
Health services........................................................
Hospitals.............................................................
Schools...............................................................
Elementary and secondary..................................
Colleges and universities.....................................
2

.4
2.7
159.4
160.0
155.8
157.2
158.0
Public administration..................................................
152.5
153.4
154.8
151.6
a This series heis the sa me indus try and o xupation al coverage as the Hourly
1 Consists of private industry workers (excluding farm anc househo d worker >) and
Earnings index, wh ich was d scontinue d in Janu ary 1989.
State and local government (excluding Federal Government workers,
4 Induci es, for example, library, socieil, and he.ilth serviees.
2 Consists of legislative, judicial, administrative, and régula tory adivi ties.


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149

Current Labor Statistics: Compensation & Industrial Relations

27.

Employment Cost Index, benefits, private industry workers by occupation and industry group

[June 1989 = 100]
2002

2001

P e rc e n t c h a n g e

2003

3 m o n th s

1 2 m o n th s

ended

ended

S e rie s
D ec.

M a r.

June

S e p t.

Dec.

M a r.

June

S e p t.

Dec.

Dec. 2003

Private industry workers......................................................

Workers, by occupational group:
White-collar workers......................................................
Workers, by industry division:
Goods-producing...........................................................
Service-producing.........................................................
Nonmanufacturing........................................................

150

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166.7

169.3

171.6

173.1

174.6

179.6

182.0

184.3

185.8

0.8

6.4

171.2
159.2

173.5
162.2

176.1
164.0

177.2
166.2

178.5
167.8

183.6
172.7

185.5
176.1

187.7
178.4

189.2
179.9

.8
.8

6.0
7.2

162.6
168.4
160.4
168.6

165.8
170.7
163.7
171.1

167.4
173.3
165.5
173.5

168.8
174.9
166.8
175.2

171.0
175.9
168.9
176.3

178.0
179.9
176.9
180.3

180.2
182.3
179.0
182.8

182.3
184.7
181.1
185.1

183.8
186.2
182.3
186.7

.8
.8
.7
.9

7.5
5.9
7.9
5.9

February 2004

28. Employment Cost Index, private nonfarm workers by bargaining status, region, and area size
[June 1989 = 100]_________
2001

2002

2003

P e rc e n t c h a n g e

S e rie s
Dec.

M a r.

June

S e p t.

Dec.

M a r.

June

S e p t.

Dec.

3 m o n th s

1 2 m o n th s

ended

ended

Dec. 2003

COMPENSATION
Workers, by bargaining status1

Union................................................................................
Goods-producing............................................................
Service-producing..........................................................
Manufacturing...............................................................
Nonmanufacturing.........................................................

153.1
151.6
154.2
151.4
153 5

154.8
153.4
156.0
153.4
155.0

156.3
154.7
157.6
154.6
15fi 6

158.1
156.2
159.9
155.9
158 8

159.5
157.8
161.1
157.9
159 9

162.1
161.4
162.6
162.3

Nonunion..........................................................................
Goods-producing............................................................
Service-producing..........................................................
Manufacturing................................................................
Nonmanufacturing.........................................................

157.8
155.3
158.6
155.5
158.2

159.6
157.2
160.3
157.6
159 9

161.4
158.6
162.2
159.1
161.7

162.5
159.5
162.9
160.1
162.4

156.3
154.6
158.6
159.4

158.3
156.2
161.1
160.4

159.9
157.6
162.2
162.9

157.4
155.6

159.1
157.5

Union................................................................................
Goods-producing............................................................
Service-producing..........................................................
Manufacturing................................................................
Nonmanufacturing.........................................................

147.4
146.3
148.9
148.0
147.1

Nonunion...........................................................................
Goods-producing............................................................
Service-producing..........................................................
Manufacturing................................................................
Nonmanufacturing..........................................................

165.7
164.7
166.5
165.0

166.8
165.9
167.5
166.3

0.7
.7
.6
.8

4.6
5.1
4.0
5.3

181/1

164.1
163.4
164.6
163.8
163 7

162.8
160.8
163.3
161.3
162.9

165.4
163.6
165.9
164.5
165.4

166.8
164.9
167.2
165.8
166.7

168.4
166.1
169.0
166.9
168.5

169.1
166.7
169.8
167.3
139.3

.4
.4
.5
.2
.5

3.9
3.7
4.0
3.7

160.5
158.9
163.5
163.8

161.3
159.0
164.6
165.0

163.8
160.6
169.0
167.3

165.2
161.6
170.4
169.5

166.9
163.2
171.7
171.4

167.9
163.9
172.5
172.2

.6
.4
.5
.5

4.1
3.1
4.8
4.4

160.9
158.5

161.8
160.0

162.5
169.8

165.2
163.5

166.6
165.0

168.3
166.1

169.1
166.9

.5
.5

4.1
3.8

148.4
147.2
150.0
149.0
148.1

149.8
158.6
151.4
150.2
149.6

151.3
150.0
152.9
151.6
151.1

152.5
151.2
154.1
153.1
152.1

153.3
152.4
154.6
154.6
152.5

154.3
153.9
155.1
155.9
153.5

155.3
154.8
156.3
156.7
154.6

156.2
155.4
157.3
157.1
155.6

.6
.4
.6
.3
.6

2.4
2.8
2.1
2.6
2.3

154.4
152.1
155.1
153.1
154.4

155.9
153.5
156.7
154.7
155.9

157.5
154.8
158.3
156.1
157.5

158.1
155.5
158.9
156.8
158.1

158.5
156.6
159.0
157.8
158.3

160.4
157.8
161.2
159.3
160.4

161.5
158.9
162.3
160.2
161.5

163.0
159.7
164.0
160.9
163.1

163.4
160.1
164.5
161.3
163.7

.2
.3
.3
.2
.4

3.1
2.2
3.5
2.2
3.4

151.7
151.2
154.7
156.0

153.5
152.5
157.1
156.4

154.9
153.6
158.5
158.7

155.1
154.7
159.2
159.3

155.7
154.6
160.2
160.1

157.3
155.3
164.1
161.3

158.4
156.1
165.0
163.1

160.0
157.4
166.1
164.7

160.9
157.9
166.5
165.2

.6
.3
.2
.3

3.3
2.1
3.9
3.2

153.7
150.5

155.1
151.7

156.7
152.6

157.4
153.8

157.9
154.8

159.6
156.8

160.7
158.0

162.2
158.9

162.7
159.5

.3
.4

3.0
3.0

Workers, by region1

Northeast..........................................................................
South...............................................................................
Midwest (formerly North Central).......................................
West................................................................................
Workers, by area size1

Metropolitan areas............................................................
Other areas......................................................................
WAGES AND SALARIES
Workers, by bargaining status1

Workers, by region1

Northeast..........................................................................
South...............................................................................
Midwest (formerly North Central)........................................
West................................................................................
Workers, by area size1

Metropolitan areas............................................................
Other areas......................................................................

1 The indexes are calculated differently from those for the occupation and industry groups. For a detailed description of the index calculation, see the Monthly Labor Review
Technical Note, "Estimation procedures for the Employment Cost Index," May 1982.


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Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

151

Current Labor Statistics: Compensation & Industrial Relations

28. Employment Cost Index, private nonfarm workers by bargaining status, region, and area size
[June 1989 = 100]

__________________
2001

2002

2003

P e rc e n t c h a n g e

S e rie s
Dec.

M a r.

June

S e p t.

Dec.

M a r.

June

S e p t.

Dec.

3 m o n th s

1 2 m o n th s

ended

ended

Dec. 2003

COMPENSATION
Workers, by bargaining status1

Union.............................................................................
Goods-producing............................................................
Service-producing..........................................................
Manufacturing...............................................................
Nonmanufacturing.........................................................

153.1
151.6
154.2
151.4
153.5

154.8
153.4
156.0
153.4
155.0

156.3
154.7
157.6
154.6
156.6

158.1
156.2
159.9
155.9
158.8

159.5
157.8
161.1
157.9
159.9

162.1
161.4
162.6
162.3
161.4

164.1
163.4
164.6
163.8
163.7

165.7
164.7
166.5
165.0
165.5

166.8
165.9
167.5
166.3
166.5

0.7
.7
.6
.8
.6

4.6
5.1
4.0
5.3
4.1

Nonunion.............................................................
Goods-producing...........................................................
Service-producing..........................................................
Manufacturing...............................................................
Nonmanufacturing.........................................................

157.8
155.3
158.6
155.5
158.2

159.6
157.2
160.3
157.6
159.9

161.4
158.6
162.2
159.1
161.7

162.5
159.5
162.9
160.1
162.4

162.8
160.8
163.3
161.3
162.9

165.4
163.6
165.9
164.5
165.4

166.8
164.9
167.2
165.8
166.7

168.4
166.1
169.0
166.9
168.5

169.1
166.7
169.8
167.3
139.3

.4
.4
.5
.2
.5

3.9
3.7
4.0
3.7
3.9

156.3
154.6
158.6
159.4

158.3
156.2
161.1
160.4

159.9
157.6
162.2
162.9

160.5
158.9
163.5
163.8

161.3
159.0
164.6
165.0

163.8
160.6
169.0
167.3

165.2
161.6
170.4
169.5

166.9
163.2
171.7
171.4

167.9
163.9
172.5
172.2

.6
.4
.5
.5

4.1
3.1
4.8
4.4

157.4
155.6

159.1
157.5

160.9
158.5

161.8
160.0

162.5
169.8

165.2
163.5

166.6
165.0

168.3
166.1

169.1
166.9

.5
.5

4.1
3.8

Union.......................................................................
Goods-producing...........................................................
Service-producing..........................................................
Manufacturing................................................................
Nonmanufacturing.........................................................

147.4
146.3
148.9
148.0
147.1

148.4
147.2
150.0
149.0
148.1

149.8
158.6
151.4
150.2
149.6

151.3
150.0
152.9
151.6
151.1

152.5
151.2
154.1
153.1
152.1

153.3
152.4
154.6
154.6
152.5

154.3
153.9
155.1
155.9
153.5

155.3
154.8
156.3
156.7
154.6

156.2
155.4
157.3
157.1
155.6

.6
.4
.6
.3
.6

2.4
2.8
2.1
2.6
2.3

Nonunion...........................................................................
Goods-producing...........................................................
Service-producing..........................................................
Manufacturing................................................................
Nonmanufacturing......................................................... .

154.4
152.1
155.1
153.1
154.4

155.9
153.5
156.7
154.7
155.9

157.5
154.8
158.3
156.1
157.5

158.1
155.5
158.9
156.8
158.1

158.5
156.6
159.0
157.8
158.3

160.4
157.8
161.2
159.3
160.4

161.5
158.9
162.3
160.2
161.5

163.0
159.7
164.0
160.9
163.1

163.4
160.1
164.5
161.3
163.7

.2
.3
.3
.2
.4

3.1
2.2
3.5
2.2
3.4

151.7
151.2
154.7
156.0

153.5
152.5
157.1
156.4

154.9
153.6
158.5
158.7

155.1
154.7
159.2
159.3

155.7
154.6
160.2
160.1

157.3
155.3
164.1
161.3

158.4
156.1
165.0
163.1

160.0
157.4
166.1
164.7

160.9
157.9
166.5
165.2

.6
.3
.2
.3

3.3
2.1
3.9
3.2

153.7
150.5

155.1
151.7

156.7
152.6

157.4
153.8

157.9
154.8

159.6
156.8

160.7
158.0

162.2
158.9

162.7
159.5

.3
.4

3.0
3.0

Workers, by region1

Northeast.........................................................................
South...............................................................................
Midwest (formerly North Central).......................................
West.......................................................................
Workers, by area size1

Metropolitan areas............................................................
Other areas......................................................................
WAGES AND SALARIES
Workers, by bargaining status1

Workers, by region1

Northeast.........................................................................
South...............................................................................
Midwest (formerly North Central)........................................
West..............................................................................
Workers, by area size1

Metropolitan areas............................................................
Other areas......................................................................

1 The indexes are calculated differently from those for the occupation and industry groups. For a detailed description of the index calculation, see the Monthly Labor Review
Technical Note, "Estimation procedures for the Employment Cost Index," May 1982.

152

Monthly Labor Review


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

29. Percent of full-time employees participating in employer-provided benefit plans, and in selected features within plans,
Item

Scope of survey (in 000's)....................................
Number of employees (in 000's):
With medical care..............................................
With life insurance.............................................
With defined benefit plan....................................

1989

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1997

1995

1993

1991

21,352

21,043

21,013

21,303

31,059

32,428

31,163

28,728

33,374

38,409

20,711
20,498
17,936

20,412
20,201
17,676

20,383
20,172
17,231

20,238
20,451
16,190

27,953
28,574
19,567

29,834
30,482
20,430

25,865
29,293
18,386

23,519
26,175
16,015

25,546
29,078
17,417

29,340
33,495
19,202

10

9
25

9
26
73
26

10
27
72
26

11
29
72
26
85
3.2
96
9.4
24

10
26
71
26
84

8
30
67
28
80

_
_
_
_

_

3.3

3.3

92
10.2
21
96
67
37
26

9
29
68
26
83
3.0
91
9.4
21
3.1
97
65
60
53

Time-off plans

Participants with:
Paid lunch time...................................................
Average minutes per day..................................
Paid rest time.....................................................
Average minutes per day..................................
Paid funeral leave..............................................
Average days per occurrence............................
Paid holidays......................................................
Average days per year......................................
Paid personal leave............................................
Average days per year......................................
Paid vacations....................................................
Paid sick leave 1.....................................................
Unpaid maternity leave.......................................... .
Unpaid paternity leave............................................
Unpaid family leave...............................................

-

75
-

76

99
10.1
20
100
62

25
99
10.0
24
3.8
99
67

99
9.8
23
3.6
99
67

3.2
99
10.0
25
3.7
100
70

-

-

-

-

33

16

97
9.2
22
3.1
97
68
37
18

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

97

97

97

95

90

92

83

-

-

88

3.3

98
69

3.3

_

96
58

81
3.7
89
9.3
20
3.5
95
56

-

-

80
3.3

89
9.1
22
3.3

84

93

82

77

76
85
78
63

Insurance plans

Participants in medical care plans..........................
Percent of participants with coverage for:
Home health care.............................................

58

62

46
62
8

66
70
18

76
79
28

75
80
28

81
80
30

86
82
42

78
73
56

26

27

46

51

36
$11.93
58
$35.93

43
$12.80
63
$41.40

44
$19.29
64
$60.07

47
$25.31
66
$72.10

51
$26.60
69
$96.97

61
$31.55
76
$107.42

67
$33.92
78
$118.33

69
$39.14
80
$130.07

Participants in life insurance plans.........................
Percent of participants with:
Accidental death and dismemberment
insurance........................................................

96

96

96

96

92

94

94

91

87

87

69

_

72

_

74

Retiree protection available................................
Participants in long-term disability

-

64

64

72
10
59

78
8
49

71
7
42

71
6
44

76
5
41

77
7
37

74
6
33

40

43

47

48

42

45

40

41

42

43

54

51

51

49

46

43

45

44

-

-

-

-

-

-

53

55

Percent of participants with employee
contribution required for:
Average monthly contribution...........................
Average monthly contribution...........................

_

Participants In sickness and accident

Participants in short-term disability plans 1...............
Retirement plans

Participants in defined benefit pension plans...........
Percent of participants with:

84

84

82

76

63

63

59

56

52

50

55
98

58
97

53
45

52
45

63
97
47
54
56

64
98
35
57
62

59
98
26
55
62

62
97
22
64
63

55
98
7
56
54

52
95
6
61
48

52
96
4
58
51

52
95
10
56
49

60

45

48

48

49

55

57

33

36

41

44

43

54

55

2
5

5
12

5

10

12

12

13

23

36

52

38
5

32
7

Ad hoc pension increase in last 5 years...............

Participants in defined contribution plans...............
Participants in plans with tax-deferred savings
arrangements...................................................
Other benefits

Employees eligible for:

1 The definitions for paid sick leave and short-term disability (previously sickness and
accident insurance) were changed for the 1995 survey. Paid sick leave now includes only
plans that specify either a maximum number of days per year or unlimited days. Shortterms disability now includes all insured, self-insured, and State-mandated plans available
on a per-disability basis, as well as the unfunded per-disability plans previously reported as
sick leave. Sickness and accident insurance, reported in years prior to this survey, included
only insured, self-insured, and State-mandated plans providing per-disability bene­


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

fits at less than full pay.
2 Prior to 1995, reimbursement accounts included premium conversion plans, which
specifically allow medical plan participants to pay required plan premiums with pretax
dollars. Also, reimbursement accounts that were part of flexible benefit plans were
tabulated separately.
NOTE: Dash indicates data not available.

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

153

Current Labor Statistics:

Compensation & industrial Relations

31. Work stoppages involving 1,000 workers or more
Annua I totals

2002

2002

Dec.

Measure
2003p

2003p
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

Number of stoppages:
Beginning in period.........................
In effect during period.....................

19
20

14
15

1
1

1
2

0
0

2
2

1
1

1
1

1
1

0
1

3
3

05
3

0
3

2

14
1

Workers involved:
Beginning in period (in thousands)....
In effect during period (in thousands)

46
47

129.2
130.5

1.4
1.4

17.5
18.8

.0
.0

4.0
4.0

4.0
4.0

1.3
1.3

4.0
4.0

.0
4.0

8.2
8.2

.0
3.2

82.2
82.2

8.9
76.7

.0
70.5

Days idle:
Number (in thousands)....................

6,596

4,091.2

28.6

48.8

0.0

18.5

40.0

7.8

16.0

12.0

35.9

Percent of estimated working time1...,

(2)

.01

(2)

___Û___Û

<2)

.00

.00

___Û___Û

o

1 Agricultural and government employees are included in the total employed and total
working time; private household, forestry, and fishery employees are excluded. An
explanation of the measurement of idleness as a percentage of the total time worked
is found in "Total economy measures of strike idleness,"

154

Monthly Labor Review


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

Monthly Labor Review, October 1968, pp.54-56.

2 Less than 0.005.
No t e :

Dash indicates data not available. P = preliminary.

51.3 1,168.5 1,219.0 1,473.4
.04
.05
.05
.01

32.

C o n s u m e r P ric e In d e x e s fo r All U rb an C o n s u m e rs a n d for U rb an W a g e Earners a n d C le r ic a l W orkers: U.S. c ity a v e r a g e ,
b y e x p e n d itu r e c a te g o r y a n d c o m m o d ity or s e rv ic e g ro u p

[1982-84 = 100, unless otherwise indicated]
Annual average
Series

2002

2003

2003

2002
Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

July

Aug.

O ct

Sept.

Nov.

Dec.

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX
FOR ALL URBAN CONSUMERS
All items...............................................................................

179.9

184.4

180.9

181.7

183.1

184.2

183.8

183.5

183.9

184.6

185.2

185.0

184.5

184.3

All Items (1 9 6 7 - 100)......................................................

538.8

551.1

541.9

544.2

548.5

551.8

550.5

549.7

550.9

553.0

554.7

554.3

552.7

552.1

Food and beverages.......................................................

176.8

180.5

177.8

178.1

178.9

179.2

179.0

179.4

180.3

180.9

181.3

182.2

182.9

184.7

176.2

180.0

177.3

177.5

178.3

178.6

178.4

178.8

179.7

180.4

180.7

181.7

182.4

180.0

175.6

179.4

176.1

176.7

177.6

177.7

177.3

177.8

178.9

179.7

180.1

181.5

182.4

184.1

Cereals and bakery products...................................

198.0

202.8

197.3

199.8

201.8

202.1

201.9

203.0

204.5

204.5

203.5

203.1

202.5

202.9

Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs..................................

162.1

169.3

162.4

161.6

164.7

164.8

165.2

164.7

168.2

169.7

171.1

174.0

179.3

181.1

Dairy and related products1......................................

168.1
220.9

167.9

166.4

167.2

167.1

165.8

223.6

221.3

226.6

170.3
224.4

171.2

223.3

167.5
224.9

171.8

227.1

165.4
226.2

164.7

225.9

167.3
224.9

226.3

227.5

173.0
232.4

139.2

139.8

139.8

140.6

140.8

140.3

140.5

140.3

138.4

139.7

139.2

140.5

137.9

139.3

160.8

162.6

161.1

161.8

162.2

162.6

162.1

162.1

167.7

163.2

163.1

163.0

162.0

163.0

159.0

162.0

159.1

169.7

161.8

162.5

161.4

162.3

162.7

162.5

162.3

162.5

161.7

161.0

Fruits and vegetables................................................
Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage
Other foods at home..................................................

155.4

157.4

152.8

155.8

158.7

157.5

156.1

157.6

156.3

157.7

157.6

159.7

157.3

157.7

177.1

178.8

178.2

178.2

177.9

178.6

178.5

177.8

179.0

179.4

179.4

178.7

177.9

179.6
109.8

Other miscellaneous foods1,2.............................

109.2

110.3

110.2

109.7

110.5

110.1

110.4

110.1

111.3

109.9

111.0

110.7

109.0

Food away from home1................................................

178.3

182.1

180.1

179.9

180.7

181.0

181.1

181.5

182.2

182.6

182.8

183.3

183.8

184.3

Other food away from home1,2...............................

117.7

119.9
185.8

120.2
185.9

120.5
186.7

121.3
187.2

187.1

121.8
187.9

122.3
188.1

122.7

186.6

120.4
186.4

121.4

183.6

119.8
184.9

120.4

Alcoholic beverages......................................................

121.3
187.2

122.9
188.7

Housing..............................................................................

180.3

184.8

181.1

182.3

183.2

184.3

184.1

184.5

185.9

186.1

185.8

185.7

185.1

185.1

208.1

213.1

209.5

210.9

211.6

212.1

212.1

212.8

213.8

214.3

213.8

214.7

214.2

213.1

Rent of primary residence........................................

199.7

205.5

202.5

203.3

203.7

204.1

204.5

204.9

205.6

206.1

206.6

206.9

207.5

205.5

Lodging away from home..........................................

118.3

119.3

109.2

114.3

117.6

119.7

118.7

121.4

124.8

125.1

118.5

120.9

115.0

119.3

Owners’ equivalent rent of primary residence3....

214.7

219.9

217.9

218.5

218.7

218.9

218.9

219.1

219.6

220.1

220.7

221.4

221.9

219.9

Tenants' and household Insurance1 2.....................

108.7

114.8

112.3

114.0

114.2

116.0

114.3

114.8

148.3

154.5

153.1

115.6
159.4

115.9

144.2

114.3
153.7

115.8

154.5

113.9
146.1

114.1

143.6

159.2

159.6

155.0

152.9

154.5

127.2

138.2

127.5

129.5

131.9

138.5

136.8

137.5

143.6

143.0

143.4

138.2

135.7

138.7

115.5

139.5

125.6

136.6

156.3

169.0

147.9

137.0

130.5

130.7

130.5

131.4

134.8

139.1

Fuel oil and other fuels.........................................

188.6

Gas (piped) and electricity....................................

134.4

145.0

134.1

135.6

136.9

143.5

143.0

144.5

151.6

151.0

151.5

145.6

142.6

145.0

Household furnishings and operations...................

128.3

126.1

127.0

127.4

127.7

127.1

127.2

126.3

126.1

125.5

125.2

125.1

124.9

124.7

Apparel..............................................................................

124.0

120.9

121.5

118.1

120.6

123.6

123.9

122.5

116.2

117.2

122.0

124.8

123.1

119.0

Men's and boys' apparel............................................

121.7

118.0

119.3

116.1

117.3

121.0

120.8

119.5

113.8

113.4

117.3

120.8

121.4

118.0

Women's and girls' apparel......................................

115.8

113.1

113.1

107.6

112.4

117.2

117.8

115.5

106.1

107.9

115.5

118.8

115.7

110.9

Infants' and toddlers' apparel1.................................

126.4

122.1

125.3

121.1

122.3

124.1

123.4

123.6

117.9

120.8

124.1

125.2

123.0

119.2

121.4

119.6

120.7

119.7

119.8

119.8

119.9

119.7

117.5

117.8

120.3

121.8

121.0

118.5

152.9

157.6

154.2

155.5

158.9

161.0

159.3

157.2

156.8

158.3

159.4

157.1

155.7

154.7

148.8

153.6

150.4

151.8

155.3

157.3

155.5

153.1

152.4

154.1

155.4

153.0

151.7

150.8

Motor fuel....................................................................
Gasoline (all types).................................................
Motor vehicle parts and equipment........................
Motor vehicle maintenance and repair...................

99.2

96.5

98.7

98.2

98.0

98.0

97.8

97.4

96.5

96.0

95.1

94.6

94.6

94.4

140.0

137.9

140.6

139.7

139.2

139.3

138.7

138.1

137.7

136.8

136.4

136.5

137.5

138.0

152.0
116.6

142.9

148.5
119.7

148.3
126.3

148.4
140.4

148.5
148.1

148.4

135.8

140.6

147.9
131.3

145.7
130.6

139.0
147.1

135.1
136.6

132.0
131.2

131.0
127.8

116.0

135.1

119.1

125.7

139.7

147.4

139.9

130.6

130.0

143.3
139.0
138.4

146.5

136.0

130.6

135.1

106.9

107.8

107.0

107.8

108.2

107.9

107.7

107.8

107.6

107.9

107.7

107.9

107.9

107.8

190.2

195.6

193.3

193.7

194.5

194.3

194.6

194.9

196.0

195.7

196.2

196.9

197.2

198.0

207.4

209.3

203.0

202.2

203.6

206.1

207.2

211.6

216.7

213.8

211.2

211.3

207.9

205.6

285.6

297.1

291.3

292.6

293.7

294.2

294.6

295.5

297.6

298.4

299.2

299.9

300.8

302.1

Medical care commodities.........................................

256.4

262.8

259.5

260.3

260.4

261.4

261.6

261.8

263.6

264.1

264.9

264.7

264.0

265.0

Medical care services.................................................

292.9

306.0

299.4

300.8

302.3

302.6

303.1

304.2

306.4

307.2

308.2

309.1

310.6

311.9

253.9

261.2

257.0

257.8

258.8

259.1

259.8

261.1

260.9

261.7

262.2

263.0

263.0

261.2

367.8

394.8

382.4

385.7

388.2

388.7

388.7

388.9

394.7

398.6

399.6

400.7

405.6

407.0

106.2

107.5

106.5

106.9

107.2

107.4

107.4

107.6

107.7

107.7

107.7

107.6

107.8

107.7

102.6

103.6

103.2

103.4

103.8

103.7

103.8

103.8

103.7

103.7

103.5

103.6

103.8

103.3

2
12
2

107.9

109.8

109.2

109.7

109.7

109.4

109.0

108.6

108.9

110.1

110.9

110.9

110.8

110.9

126.0

130.0
323.3

130.6

131.1
333.2

131.2

131.4

136.2

138.7

139.0

139.4

Educational books and supplies..........................

317.6

134.4
335.4

329.5

131.0
332.8

332.3

332.5

132.6
335.0

338.5

338.2

139.1
339.7

336.0

342.8

Tuition, other school fees, and child care...........
12

362.1

362.1

374.0

375.5

376.3

376.6

377.1

377.7

381.2

392.1

400.0

401.1

401.2

401.7

92.3

89.7

91.8

92.0

91.9

91.2

90.5

89.8

89.4

89.0

88.6

88.4

88.2

88.2

Information and information processing1,2.........

90.6

87.8

90.0

90.3

90.1

89.6

88.6

87.9

87.5

87.0

86.7

86.4

86.2

86.2

Telephone services1,2.........................................
Information and information processing

99.7

98.3

99.9

100.4

100.6

99.7

98.7

98.1

98.1

97.8

97.4

97.1

97.2

97.2

18.C

16.1

17.2

17.1

16.9

16.6

16.7

16.4

16.0

15.7

15.6

15.6

15.4

15.3

2

14

other than telenhone services '
Personal computers and peripheral
12

Tobacco and smoking products...............................

Personal care services1..........................................

17.6

19.7

19.6

19.1

19.C

18.7

18.C

17.2

16.7

16.3

16.6

16.:

16.2

298.7

295.6

296.6

297.6

297.C

298.1

298.1

299.2

299.8

299.9

300.Î

300.C

300.2

461 .£

469.C

472.6

472.4

472.7

467.2

467.6

465.6

469.1

471.8

468.7

469.6

469.1

470.4

174.-

178.C

175.4

175.9

176.7

177.2

177."

177.6

178.4

178.4

179.C

179.

179.C

179.0

154.'

153.6

153.4

153.C

153.6

153..

154.1

153.6

154.2

153.6

153.4

153.f

153.2

153.4

188 y

193.2

189.9

190.6

190.9

191.

192.6

193.C

193.2

193.Ê

195.4

195.

194.2

194.3

22.2

See footnotes at end of table.


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

155

Current Labor Statistics:

32.

Price Data

C o n tin u e d -C o n s u m e r P rice In d e x e s fo r A ll U rb a n C o n s u m e rs a n d for U rb a n W a g e Earners a n d C le r ic a l W orkers: U.S. c ity
a v e r a g e , b y e x p e n d itu r e c a te g o r y a n d c o m m o d ity o r s e rv ic e g ro u p

[1982-84 = 100, unless otherwise indicated]

2002

Annual average
Series

2002

Miscellaneous personal services..

2003

Dec.

283.5

276.9

151.,

149.

2003
Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

Rent of shelter3...............
Transporatation services................
Other services.....................
Special indexes:
All items less food............
All items less shelter....................
All items less medical care..........
Commodities less food..........
Nondurables less food.............
Nondurables less food and apparel.
Nondurables........................
Services less rent of shelter3 .
Services less medical care services...........
Energy........................
All items less energy...........
All items less food and energy........
Commodities less food and energy........
Energy commodities....................
Services less energy.................

134.2
145 1

216.7
PDQ 1

ifln 5
17(1 ft
174 3

163 3
217.5
202 5
187.7
190 5
143.7
117 1
217.5

150.

152.

153.1

July

Aug,

Sept,

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

282.0

282.7

283.8

284.1

284.3

285.3

285.8

287.0

287.1

152.;

150.9

150.4

150.0

150.9

152.0

151.4

150.9

150.4

Commodity and service group:

Commodities..................
Food and beverages...............
Commodities less food and beverages......
Nondurables less food and beverages....
Apparel.........................
Nondurables less food, beverages,
and apparel.............................
Durables.............................
Services........................

June

180.Í

177.Í

178.

178.

179.5

179.C

179.4

180.2

180.3

134. Í

180.9

133.6

181.3

182.2

133.

182.9

136.'

184.1

138.C

136.'

134.6

133.6

132.9

149."

133.9

135.4

145.Í

134.1

146.

132.9

151.5

131.7

154.6

152.:

148.9

147.4

146.6

149.2

153.1

120.5

121.5

151.2

149.0

118.

120.Í

123.5

122.5

119.5

116.2

117.2

122.0

146.7

123.6

124.8

123.1

119.0

171.6
115.2

169.1
115.1

167.7
115.0
217.9

171 .S

163.5

167.'

174.

117.£

120.5

119.<

119.'

177.6
119.6

173.5
119.5

169.2
118.5

168.6
118.0

169.2
117.4

173.0
116.7

176.4
115.7

216.5

211.5

213.

214.C

215.1

215.1

215.9

216.8

217.6

218.0

218.1

218.4

217.9

221.5

218.1

220.9

220.6

221.5

221.7

222.6

223.1

212.C

219.Í
212.5

220.C

216.2

213.4

222.6

223.5

223.0

222.9

254.4

250.2

251.'

252.4

214.2
252.6

215.6
252.6

216.3
252.8

217.1
253.0

218.0
253.7

217.2
255.5

216.8
257.0

218.9
257.2

218.6
257.3

217.7
257.4

184.7

181.6

182.4

183.9

185.2

184.7

184.3

184.5

184.6

185.3

186.0

174.6

171.7

185.6

184.9

172.5

184.4

174.0

175.3

174.7

174.1

174.3

174.2

175.0

176.0

178.1

175.5

175.1

174.9

175.5

174.7
178.2

177.3

178.4

178.0

177.7

177.9

178.0

178.7

179.2

136.5

179.1

135.6

178.5

135.6

138.3

139.8

138.6

136.5

135.5

134.9

135.9

137.3

151.9

136.1

147.6

148.4

135.0

153.3

133.8

156.5

154.3

151.1

151.1

149.0

151.5

172.1

155.2

153.3

165.0

168.2

151.3

174.4

149.2

177.7

174.2

169.9

169.4

170.0

173.4

176.6

172.2

165.3

161.6

170.0

162.2

168.8

165.3

167.2

165.9

164.3

163.9

163.5

165.2

167.4

166.8

166.1

165.4

226.4

220.5

221.6

222.8

224.4

224.6

225.5

227.2

228.0

228.4

229.2

228.7

208.7
136.5

228.2

204.3
123.3

228.4

205.5
127.5

206.4
135.4

207.4
142.6

207.5
138.1

208.2
134.0

209.1
136.5

209.8
136.8

210.3
140.6

210.3
144.6

210.5
136.9

209.9
133.1

209.9
131.8
191.5

190.6

188.6

189.0

189.7

190.2

190.2

190.3

190.3

190.5

190.8

191.0

193.2

191.7

191.4

191.6

191.8

192.5

193.0

193.1

193.2

193.0

193.2

193.5

193.6

140.9

194.3

193.9

142.5

141.7

193.6

142.1

142.6

142.5

141.7

140.8

139.9

139.7

136.7

140.2

140.4

120.7

139.9

127.5

142.1

139.0

150.1

141.7

132.3

130.9

131.3

139.2

146.9

223.8

137.0

132.1

219.8

221.0

221.9

129.0

222.4

222.5

223.1

223.5

224.3

224.9

224.9

225.8

225.6

225.5

CONSUMER PRICE INDEX FOR URBAN
WAGE EARNERS AND CLERICAL WORKERS

All items.....................
All items (1967 = 100)..............
Food and beverages...................
Food...............................
Food at home.......................
Cereals and bakery products..........
Meats, poultry, fish, and eggs...........
Dairy and related products1..........
Fruits and vegetables..................
Nonalcoholic beverages and beverage
materials........................
Other foods at home....................
Sugar and sweets..................
Fats and oils..........................
Other foods...................
Other miscellaneous foods1'2.. .
Food away from home1.............
Other food away from home1,2..........
Alcoholic beverages...........
Housing.............................
Shelter..........................
Rent of primary residence............
Lodging away from home2....
Owners' equivalent rent of primary residence3
Tenants' and household insurance1'2....
Fuels and utilities......................
Fuels...........................
Fuel oil and other fuels...................
Household furnishings and operations...
Apparel............................
Men's and boys' apparel...........
Women's and girls' apparel............
Infants' and toddlers' apparel1...
Footwear........................
Transportation......................
Private transportation.........................
^
...............
New and used motor vehicles2...

523.9
176.1
176.5
175.1
198.0
162.0
167.2
222.9
138.6
160.4
158.8
155.3
177.6
109.7
178.2
118.1
183.3
201.9
199.0
118.4
195.1
108.7
142.9
126.1
115.0
133.4
124.4
121.7
114.6
128.6

149.0
99.4

179.8

177.0

177.7

179.2

180.3

179.8

179.4

179.6

179.6

180.6

181.0

535.6

180.7

527.2

180.2

529.2

179.9

533.7

537.1

535.5

534.3

534.3

535.0

537.1

539.2

538.2

536.7

536.0

179.9

177.1

177.4

178.3

178.5

178.3

178.7

179.5

179.6

180.2

180.7

179.4

181.7

176.5

182.4

176.8

183.6

177.7

177.9

177.7

178.1

178.9

179.1

179.7

180.2

178.5

181.2

175.1

181.9

175.7

183.1

176.7

176.8

176.4

176.8

177.9

178.0

178.8

179.4

180.7

202.8

197.1

181.6

199.9

183.3

201.9

202.1

201.8

202.9

203.7

204.4

204.5

203.5

169.2

203.2

202.4

162.3

161.5

202.4

164.5

164.8

165.2

164.6

167.0

168.2

169.5

170.9

173.8

179.2

181.0

167.6
224.3

167.2
222.9

166.3
225.7

167.1
221 8

166.7
222.2

165.6
220.0

165.1
224.3

163.5
225.7

164.4
225.3

167.0
223.8

170.2
223.4

171.7
224.9

171.0
225 .3 1

172.7
229.7

139.1

139.1

139.9

140 1

139.5

139.6

139.7

139.6

137.5

138.9

138.5

162.2

139.8

160.6

137.3

161.3

138.6

161.9

162.1

161.7

161.7

163.0

162.3

162.6

162.8

162.5

161.6

158.9

161.6

160.4

162.5

161.3

162.1

160.9

162.1

162.4

162.3

162.1

162.1

157.4

162.1

152.9

161.4

155.7

158.7

160.5

157.7

156.2

157.6

156.5

156.2

157.7

157.6

159.6

157.3

157.7

178.9

179.0

187.1

180.5

179.4

179.7

180.0

179.0

178.3

180.0

179.2

178.5

178.5

178.5

110.8

110.7

110.1

110.9

110.5

110.9

110.5

112.1

111.6

110.0

111.3

111.2

109.5

182.0

110.3

180.0

179.8

180.5

181.0

181.0

181.4

181.7

182.1

182.4

182.7

183.3

183.7

121.5
187.1

120.1

184.2

120.2

120.4

120.7

120.8

120.8

121.3

121.4

184.7

122.0

122.9

185.7

121.6

122.5

185.5

186.8

186.6

186.8

186.8

187.0

186.9

187.7

188.1

188.8

123.1
188.9

180.4

176.9

177.9

178.7

179.9

179.7

180.0

180.9

181.4

181.6

181.6

181.3

206.9

180.9

203.9

204.9

181.0

205.5

205.9

205.9

206.4

206.5

207.2

207.7

207.6

208.3

208.2

204.7

208.2

201.9

202.6

203.0

203.4

203.7

204.1

204.4

207.0

204.8

205.3

205.8

206.6

109.6

114.3

118.0

120.4

119.0

122.2

122.6

206.1

119.8

125.0

125.2

119.8

121.7

199.7

116.2

198.0

113.4

198.5

198.6

198.8

198.8

199.0

199.0

199.4

199.9

200.4

201.0

201.4

201.7

114.7

113.7

113.8
153.6

114.0
152.4

114.0
153.0

115.4

114.4

158.9

115.8
159.1

114.4

158.6

115.7
158.7

116.0

145.3

113.9
147.4

115.0

153.9

112.3
143.5

137.0

154.3

126.4

152.3

128.3

153.0

130.5

137.0

135.7

135.4

136.3

142.2

142.4

141.9

142.3

138.7

137.0

134.7

125.0

135.8

155.7

167.9

146.9

136.1

131.6

129.6

129.6

129.4

144.1

130.7

133.2

134.4

134.7

136.2

136.0

142.6

142.3

143.5

150.3

150.6

150.1

150.6

121.9

144.6

123.0

141.9

123.2

122.8

122.8

122.0

121.9

121.0
121.0

142.5

123.5

120.9

120.7

123.9

121.9

121.4

120.0

120.9

117.3

119.4

122.5

122.8

121.5

118.7

115.2

116.1

117.5

118.8

115.7

116.8

120.6

120.4

119.1

116.2

113.4

112.9

116.5

112.1

112.3

106.7

111.0

120.0

116.4

116.4

114.2

110.4

105.0

106.9

114.5

118.2

115.3

124.1

127.2

122.4

123.6

125.8

125.5

125.7

122.9

120.3

122.9

126.5

127.7

119.1
156.3

125.0

120.8
153.0

121.4

119.5
154.6

119.3
158.2

119.6
160.3

119.8
158.5

119.9
156.2

118.5
155.7

116.9
155.5

117.2
157.1

119.6
158.1

121.1

120.4

155.4

153.5

150.4

153.6

152.0

117.8
152.5

155.7

157.8

155.9

153.3

152.8

152.5

154.2

155.3

152.5

150.8

149.7

96.0

98.5

98.2

97.7

96.9

96.9

96.3

95.7

94.4

93.5

93.1

92.8

See footnotes at end of table.

156

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

120.4

122.6
121.1

February 2004

9 7.9 1

9 8.0 1

118.7
117.8
110.5

32.

C o n tin u e d — C o n s u m e r P ric e In d e x e s fo r A ll U rb a n C o n s u m e rs a n d for U rb a n W a g e E arners a n d C le r ic a l W orkers: U.S. c ity
a v e r a g e , b y e x p e n d itu r e c a te g o r y a n d c o m m o d ity o r s e rv ic e g ro u p

[1982-84 = 100, unless otherwise indicated]
Annual average
Series

.

2002

12
2

Tuition, other school fees, and child care......
Communication1,2
12

Information and information processing ' .....

2003

2003

2002
Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

June

July

Aug.

Sept.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

141.1

139.0

141.7

140.9

140.3

140.4

139.7

139.1

138.4

137.7

137.9

137.6

137.8

138.7

139.2

152.8

143.7

149.3

149.2

149.2

149.2

149.2

148.7

148.1

146.4

144.0

139.8

135.9

132.8

131.7

117.0

136.1

120.0

126.7

140.9

148.5

140.8

131.5

130.4

130.9

139.4

147.5

136.9

131.5

128.1

116.4

135.5

119.4

126.1

140.3

147.8

140.2

130.9

129.8

130.4

138.9

147.0

136.4

130.9

127.6
107.3

106.1

107.3

106.3

107.1

107.5

107.2

107.1

107.2

107.1

107.0

107.3

107.2

107.5

107.5

191.7

197.3

195.0

195.4

196.2

196.0

196.3

196.5

196.8

197.7

197.3

197.9

198.6

198.9

199.8

202.6

206.0

199.2

198.1

199.8

202.0

203.0

208.5

210.8

212.8

210.5

208.4

208.7

205.8

203.6
301.4

284.6

296.3

290.6

291.8

293.0

293.5

293.7

294.6

295.5

296.7

297.4

298.3

299.1

300.1

251.1

257.4

254.0

254.8

255.1

256.1

256.2

256.4

256.7

258.2

258.6

259.4

259.2

258.5

259.4

292.5

305.9

299.5

300.9

302.3

302.7

303.0

304.1

305.1

306.3

307.0

307.9

309.1

310.6

311.9

256.0

263.4

259.2

260.0

261.0

261.3

261.9

263.3

263.5

264.1

263.9

264.4

265.2

265.2

266.5

363.2

391.2

379.1

382.2

384.8

385.3

384.9

385.0

388.1

390.9

394.2

395.8

397.5

402.4

403.4

104.6

105.5

104.7

105.1

105.4

105.4

105.4

105.5

105.5

105.6

105.7

105.5

105.4

105.6

105.5

102.0

102.9

102.4

102.7

103.0

102.9

103.0

103.0

102.9

102.9

102.9

102.7

102.8

103.0

102.5

107.6

109.0

108.8

109.2

109.2

108.9

108.4

108.0

107.8

108.2

109.1

109.7

109.7

109.6

109.7

125.9

133.8

129.7

130.3

130.7

130.8

130.9

131.1

131.8

132.3

135.5

137.8

138.1

138.0

138.0

318.5

336.5

324.5

330.6

333.6

333.9

333.4

333.6

335.5

336.3

339.6

339.6

340.6

337.5

343.8

354.8

377.3

366.0

367.2

368.0

368.2

368.8

369.3

371.1

372.6

382.1

389.2

390.1

390.2

390.7

93.7

91.2

93.2

93.5

93.4

92.8

92.0

91.3

90.7

90.9

90.5

90.2

89.9

89.8

89.7

92.7

89.9

93.0

92.3

92.2

91.6

90.7

90.0

89.6

89.6

89.1

89.1

88.5

88.4

88.3

99.9

98.5

100.1

100.7

100.7

99.9

98.9

98.3

97.7

98.3

98.0

97.6

97.3

97.4

97.4

19.0

16.7

17.8

17.7

17.5

17.4

17.4

17.0

16.8

16.5

16.3

16.1

16.2

15.9

15.8

Information and information processing
14

nther than telenhone services ’
Personal computers and peripheral

21.8

17.3

19.3

19.1

18.6

18.6

18.5

17.8

16.9

16.9

16.3

16.0

16.2

16.0

15.9

302.0

307.0

305.1

305.6

306.4

305.6

306.4

306.0

306.0

307.5

308.0

307.9

308.2

307.7

308.1

463.2

470.5

474.3

474.3

474.8

469.1

469.8

464.8

464.8

470.5

473.2

469.9

470.7

470.2

471.5

174.1

177.0

174.7

175.2

175.7

176.1

176.7

176.9

177.2

177.5

177.4

177.9

178.0

177.7

177.8

155.5

154.2

154.2

154.8

154.0

153.8

154.6

154.2

154.4

154.8

154.3

154.0

154.1

153.8

154.2

189.1

193.9

190.7

189.1

191.6

192.4

193.2

193.6

193.5

193.9

194.6

196.1

196.3

194.8

194.9

274.0

283.3

276.7

277.9

279.9

281.1

281.6

282.4

283.9

284.0

284.4

285.2

285.6

286.7

286.6

150.4

151.8

150.3

150.7

152.8

176.1

179.9

177.1

177.4

178.3

154.0
178.5

153.0
178.3

151.6
178.7

151.1
179.5

150.7
179.6

151.6
180.2

152.7
180.7

151.9
181.7

151.3
182.4

150.7
183.6

135.5

135.8

135.0

135.5

138.0

139.6

138..2

136.0

135.0

134.2

135.4

136.7

135.2

133.8

132.5

147.0

152.1

147.3

148.3

153.8

157.3

154.8

151.1

149.6

148.7

151.7

155.9

153.6

151.4

149.0

123.1

120.0

120.9

117.3

119.4

122.5

122.8

121.5

118.7

115.2

116.1

121.0

123.9

122.6

118.7

165.3

175.6
117.4

167.2
120.4

171.0

178.7

182.6

178.3

173.0

172.3

173.0

177.4

181.2

175.7

172.9

171.6

121.8

120.1

119.9

119.8

119.4

118.8

118.3

117.6

116.9

115.5

114.7

114.2

114.0

205.9

212.6

208.3

209.4

210.2

211.2

211.3

212.0

212.9

213.6

214.0

214.3

214.4

214.1

214.2

194.5
207.7

199.2
216.2

196.3
211.7

197.3
212.2

197.9
213.2

198.3
213.9

198.3
215.0

198.8
216.1

198.9
216.7

199.5
217.4

200.0
216.8

199.9
216.8

200.6
219.0

200.5
218.8

200.6
218.0

241.6

248.5

245.1

246.2

247.1

247.0

246.8

246.8

247.2

247.9

249.3

250.6

250.7

250.7

250.9

175.8

179.7

177.0

177.7

179.3

180.6

180.0

179.5

179.5

179.6

180.3

181.0

180.4

179.7

179.2

168.3

171.9

169.1

169.7

171.5

172.9

172.2

171.4

171.7

171.5

172.3

173.3

172.6

171.9

171.6

171.1

174.8

172.1

172.7

174.2

175.4

174.8

174.4

174.5

174.5

175.2

176.0

175.6

175.0

174.7

137.3

137.7

136.8

137.1

139.7

141.4

140.0

137.9

136.9

136.1

137.2

138.6

137.0

135.8

134.5

Commodity and service group:

Nondurables less food, beverages,

Special indexes:

Services less energy.......................................
' Not seasonally adjusted.

1997 = 100 base.
Indexes on a December 1982 = 100 base.

Indexes on a December
3


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

149.2

154.2

149.6

150.5

155.8

159.2

156.8

153.2

151.8

151.0

151.0

157.9

155.7

153.7

151.4

166.1

175.9

168.0

171.6

178.7

182.3

178.4

173.5

172.8

173.5

177.5

181.1

176.1

173.6

172.1

161.4

166.4

162.6

163.2

166.5

168.5

167.1

165.3

164.9

164.6

166.4

168.8

168.1

167.3

166.6

193.1

201.3

195.9

196.9

197.9

199.5

199.7

200.4

202.2

202.8

203.1

203.7

203.2

202.7

202.9

198.9
120.9

205.2
135.9

201.1
122.6

202.1
126.9

202.9
135.1

204.0
142.2

204.0
137.7

204.7
133.2

205.2
135.6

206.2
135.9

206.6
140.0

206.8
144.2

206.S
136.2

206.5
132.4

206.6
131.1

183.6

186.1

184.6

184.8

185.5

185.9

185.8

185.9

185.9

185.9

186.2

186.4

187.C

187.0

186.9

185.6

187.9

186.7

186.9

187.5

188.0

188.C

188.0

187.7

187.7

187.9

188.1

188.2

188.4

188.0
141.1

144.4

141.1

143.1

142.2

142.6

143.1

143.C

142.2

141.3

140.3

140.1

140.2

140.2

139.7

17.3

136.8

120.7

127.6

142.1

150.C

141.7

132.3

131.0

131.4

139.5

147.2

137.2

132.1

136.8

2 13 .9 1

220.2

216.7

217.7

218.5

218.8

219.C

219.6

219.8

220.5

221.C

221.2

222.1

222.1

222.1

4 lndexes on a December 1988 = 100 bas6.
Dash indicates data not available.
Note Index applied to a month as a whole, not to any specific date.

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

157

Current Labor Statistics:

33.

Price Data

Consumer Price Index: U.S. city average and available local area data: all items

[1982-84 = 100, unless otherwise indicated]
P r i c in g

A ll U r b a n C o n s u m e r s

sched­

2003

u le 1

U.S. city average......................................

J u ly

Aug.

S e p t.

U rb a n W a g e E a rn e rs
2003

O c t.

Nov.

Dec.

J u ly

Aug.

S e p t.

O c t.

N ov.

Dec.

M

183.9

184.6

185.2

185.0

184.5

184.3

179.6

180.3

181.0

180.7

180.2

179.9

M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M
M

193.5
195.5
114.5
178.1
180.5
113.1
171.4
177.3
179.1
113.1
175.0
188.4
190.9
115.1

194.3
196.6
114.4
178.8
181.2
113.6
172.1
177.9
179.8
113.4
175.9
189.2
191.7
115.5

195.0
197.3
115.0
179.5
182.0
113.9
172.3
178.3
180.1
113.8
176.3
189.6
192.3
115.6

195.4
197.7
115.2
179.1
181.7
113.6
171.8
178.1
180.1
113.6
175.6
189.4
191.9
115.5

195.1
197.3
115.3
178.9
181.4
113.6
171.4
177.5
179.1
113.3
175.4
188.5
191.0
114.9

194.9
197.1
115.0
178.4
180.9
113.3
171.5
177.5
179.2
113.3
175.1
188.3
190.6
115.2

190.0
190.8
114.5
173.3
174.8
112.5
169.1
174.3
176.2
111.9
174.6
183.4
184.3
114.6

190.7
191.8
114.5
174.1
175.5
113.0
169.8
174.8
177.0
112.1
174.5
184.2
185.3
114.8

191.9
193.0
115.1
174.6
176.4
113.2
170
175.3
177.5
112.4
175.9
185.0
186.1
115.3

192.1
193.2
115.3
174.1
176.0
112.7
169.3
174.9
177.3
112.1
174.8
184.4
185.4
115.0

191.9
192.8
115.4
173.9
175.7
112.7
169.1
174.3
176.4
111.9
174.5
183.5
184.4
114.6

191.7
192.7
115.2
173 .4
175.1
112.4
169.1
174.2
176.4
111.8
174.2
183.3
183.9
114.8

M
M
M

168.3
113.6
184.1

169.0
113.9
177.1

169.6
114.3
177.4

169.5
114.1
176.9

168.9
113.9
176.6

168.7
113.8
176.5

166.3
112.9
174.4

167.2
113.1
175.3

168.0
113.5
175.6

167.7
113.2
174.9

167.1
113.0
174.5

166.8
112.9
174.3

Chicago-Gary-Kenosha, IL-IN-WI................................
Los Angeles-Riverside-Orange County, CA....................

M
M

184.1
186.3

184.5
186.9

186.1
188.2

186.1
187.8

185.6
187.1

185.5
187.0

177.8
179.6

179.8
181.9

179.1
181.2

New York, NY-Northern NJ-Long Island, NY-NJ-CT-PA.
Boston-Brockton-Nashua, MA-NH-ME-CT....................
Cleveland-Akron, OH.....................................................
Dallas-Ft Worth, TX.......................................................

179.1
180.5

178.8
180.2

M

197.7

199.1

199.6

200.0

199.4

194.6

206.8
178.5
177.0
117.2

-

- 206.5
177.6
- 1175.9
116.7
180.1
183.3
166.1
181.6
190.3
196.3
193.7
-I

202.2
167.0
175.9
116.2

2
2
2
2
2
2
2

179.7
183.6
164.1
180.9
191.1
196.3
194.41

195.2
_
_
-

194.7

203.0
176.0
176.5
116.8

199.3
-

195.0

1
1
1
1

178.3
180.5
194.1
-

179
181.3
164.1
181.6
189.0
195.3
191.0

-

Region and area size2

Northeast urban..............................................
Size A—More than 1,500,000..................... .
Size B/C—50,000 to 1.500.0003..................
Midwest urban4...............................................
Size A—More than 1,500,000......................
Size B/C—50,000 to 1.500.0003..................
Size D—Nonmetropolitan (less than 50,000).
South urban...................................................
Size A—More than 1,500,000......................
Size B/C—50,000 to 1,500,0003...................
Size D—Nonmetropolitan (less than 50,000)..
West urban....................................................
Size A—More than 1,500,000......................
Size B/C—50,000 to 1,500,000s...................
Size classes:
«5

B/C
D....
Selected local areas*

Washington-Baltimore, DC-MD-VA-WV7.......................
Atlanta, GA....................................................................
Detroit-Ann Arbor-Flint, Ml............................................
Houston-Galveston-Brazoria, TX....................................
Miami-Ft. Lauderdale, FL...............................................
Philadelphia-Wilmington-Atlantic City, PA-NJ-DE-MD....
San Francisco-Oakland-San Jose, CA............................
Seattle-Tacoma-Bremerton, WA....................................

-I

goods and services priced as indicated:
M—Every month.
1—January, March, May, July, September, and November.
2—
February, April, June, August, October, and December.
2 Regions defined as the four Census regions.
3 Indexes on a December 1996 = 100 base.
4 The "North Central" region has been renamed the "Midwest" region by the
Census Bureau. It is composed of the same geographic entities.
6 Indexes on a December 1986 = 100 base.
6 In addition, the following metropolitan areas are published semiannually and
appear in tables 34 and 39 of the January and July issues of the CPI Detailed

-

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

179.4
177.5
162.5
178.3
189.2
192.3
188.2

206.2
169.5
176.7
116.9
_
-

177.6
178.2
164.0
179.0
190.2
191.9
187.8

205.6
168.3
175.6
116.1
_
_
_
_
_

_
_
_

176.6
175.9
162.2
178.9
189
191.1
185.3
Report: Anchorage, AK; Cincinnati OH-KY-IN; Kansas City, MO-KS; Milwaukee-Racine,
Wl; Minneapolis-St. Paul, MN-WI; Pittsburgh, PA; Port-land-Salem, OR-WA; St Louis,
MO-IL; San Diego, CA; Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL.

7 Indexes on a November 1996 = 100 base.
NOTE: Local area CPI indexes are byproducts of the national CPI program. Each local
index has a smaller sample size and is, therefore, subject to substantially more sampling
and other measurement error. As a result, local area indexes show greater volatility than
the national index, although their long-term trends are similar. Therefore, the Bureau of
Labor Statistics strongly urges users to consider adopting the national average CPI for use
in their escalator clauses. Index applies to a month as a whole, not to any specific date.
Dash indicates data not available.

158

192.8

34.

Annual data: Consumer Price Index, U.S. city average, ail items and major groups

S e rie s

Consumer Price Index for All Urban Consumers:
All items:
Index..................................................................
Percent change...................................................
Food and beverages:
Index..................................................................
Percent change...................................................
Housing:
Index..................................................................
Percent change...................................................
Apparel:
Index..................................................................
Percent change...................................................
Transportation:
Index..................................................................
Percent change...................................................
Medical care:
Index..................................................................
Percent change...................................................
Other goods and services:
Index..................................................................
Percent change...................................................
Consumer Price Index for Urban Wage Earners
and Clerical Workers:
All items:
Index..................................................................
Percent change...................................................


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

144.5
3.0

148.2
2.6

152.4
2.8

156.9
3.0

160.5
2.3

163.0
1.6

166.6
2.2

172.2
3.4

177.1
2.8

179.9
1.6

184.0
2.3

141.6
2.1

144.9
2.3

148.9
2.8

153.7
3.2

157.7
2.6

161.1
2.2

164.6
2.2

168.4
2.3

173.6
3.1

176.8
1.8

180.5
2.1

141.2
2.7

144.8
2.5

148.5
2.6

152.8
2.9

156.8
2.6

160.4
2.3

163.9
2.2

169.6
3.5

176.4
4.0

180.3
2.2

184.8
2.5

133.7
1.4

133.4
-.2

132.0
-1.0

131.7
-.2

132.9
.9

133.0
.1

131.3
-1.3

129.6
-1.3

127.3
-1.8

124.0
-2.6

120.9
-2.5

130.4
3.1

134.3
3.0

139.1
3.6

143.0
2.8

144.3
0.9

141.6
-1.9

144.4
2.0

153.3
6.2

154.3
0.7

152.9
-.9

157.6
3.1

201.4
5.9

211.0
4.8

220.5
4.5

228.2
3.5

234.6
2.8

242.1
3.2

250.6
3.5

260.8
4.1

272.8
4.6

285.6
4.7

297.1
4.0

192.9
5.2

198.5
2.9

206.9
4.2

215.4
4.1

224.8
4.4

237.7
5.7

258.3
8.7

271.1
5.0

282.6
4.2

293.2
3.8

298.7
1.9

142.1
2.8

145.6
2.5

149.8
2.9

154.1
2.9

157.6
2.3

159.7
1.3

163.2
2.2

168.9
3.5

173.5
2.7

175.9
1.4

179.8
2.2

Monthly Labor Review

Febuary 2004

159

Current Labor Statistics:

35.

Price Data

Producer Price Indexes, by stage of processing

[1982 = 100] _____________
A n n u a l a v e ra g e

2002

2003

G r o u p in g
2002

2003

Dec.

Jan.

Feb.

M a r.

A p r.

M ay

June

J u ly

Aug.

S e p t.p

O c t.p

N o v .p

138.9
139.4
140.1

143.3
145.2
146.0

139.0
139.6
139.5

140.8
141.9
142.0

142.3
144.0
142.3

144.2
146.3
142.8

142.1
143.8
144.0

142.0
143.7
144.6

143.0
145.0
145.2

143.0
145.1
144.9

143.7
145.9
146.3

143.9
146.3
147.9

145.5
147.7
151.0

144.1
146.5
150.2

144.5
146 6
150.3

138.8
139.8
133.0
139.1

144.6
148.3
133.1
139.1

139.3
140.6
132.8
139.1

141.6
143.8
133.2
139.3

144.4
147.9
133.1
139.2

147.4
151.7
134.4
139.9

143.5
146.9
132.5
139.1

143.0
146.3
132.4
139.0

144.6
148.9
131.8
138.9

144.8
149.2
131.7
138.9

145.4
150.0
131.8
139.2

145.3
150.2
131.1
139.1

146.1
149.2
135.5
141.1

144.7
147.4
135.1
140.7

144 8
147.8
134.4
140.4

supplies, and com po nents........................

127.8

133.7

129.4

131.1

133.5

136.2

133.0

132.5

133.5

133.7

Materials and components
for manufacturing................................
Materials for food manufacturing...........
Materials for nondurable manufacturing..
Materials for durable manufacturing......
Components for manufacturing.............

134.1

134.1

134.1

134.0

134.5

126.1
123.2
129.2
124.7
126.1

129.7
134.4
137.2
127.9
125.9

127.2
126.9
131.4
126.2
125.9

127.9
128.9
133.4
126.1
125.8

129.5
129.6
138.1
126.8
125.8

130.1
129.0
140.1
126.9
126.0

129.4
129.6
137.6
126.7
126.0

129.3
130.8
137.0
128.8
126.1

129.6
134.2
137.4
126.8
126.0

129.2
133.3
136.3
127.1
125.8

129.8
135.5
137.8
127.5
125.8

129.6
137.1
136.3
128.9
125.9

130.5
142.0
137.1
129.6
125.8

130.7
142.0
137 4
130.5
125.7

131 0
140 9
138 1
131 1
125.7

Materials and components
for construction...................................
Processed fuels and lubricants...............
Containers.....................................
Supplies..............................................

151.3
96.3
152.1
138.9

153.6
112.6
153.7
141.5

151.1
100.9
153.2
139.6

151.4
106.9
153.4
140.1

152.1
113.6
153.7
140.7

152.3
124.8
153.8
141.2

152.9
110.8
154.0
141.3

152.9
108.0
153.9
141.5

153.0
112.1
154.1
141.5

153.6
113.7
153.8
141.5

153.7
114.5
153.6
141.2

155.1
113.3
153.6
141.7

155.2
111.9
153.2
141.8

155.6
109.7
153.5
142.6

155 fi
111.7
153.4
142.7

108.1
99.5
111.4

135.3
113.5
148.2

118.1
100.5
128.2

127.3
105.6
140.4

134.0
106.3
151.7

152.2
105.7
184.4

128.0
107.0
140.6

130.9
111.0
142.4

136.5
110.4
152.8

132.6
107.6
148.2

131.3
111.5
142.7

135.6
118.7
144.5

138.3
127.5
141.9

137.4
126.1
141.9

139 9
124.6
147.4

138.3
88.8
147.3
150.8
150.2

142.4
102.0
149.0
153.1
150.5

138.7
90.7
147.0
150.2
149.9

140.3
95.3
147.9
151.5
150.3

142.1
101.7
147.9
151.6
151.0

144.3
107.4
148.6
152.3
151.0

141.5
100.0
148.2
152.1
150.0

141.1
98.9
148.3
152.3
150.0

142.2
103.1
148.3
152.4
149.8

142.7
103.4
148.2
152.3
149.8

142.6
104.7
148.7
152.8
149.9

143.8
105.0
149.0
153.3
149.7

142.8
103.2
151.4
155.9
152.0

142.8
100.3
151.0
155.5
151.7

142.4
101.1
150.8
155.3
151.4

157.6

157.8

157.2

157.7

157.6

158.4

157.4

157.4

157.1

157.1

157.2

156.9

159.2

159.0

158.8

177.5

177.8

176.7

177.4

177.3

177.7

177.5

177.6

177.7

177.8

177.8

177.8

178.1

178.2

178.2

134.0
125.1
111.3
137.6

134.2
124.4
113.0
137.4

134.6
125.0
114.3
137.5

134.5
128.0
112.4
138.0

134.4
131.7
111.1
138.5

134.1
134.8
109.0
138.9

134.7
133.9
110 9
139.0

Finished goods................................................

Finished consumer goods...................
Finished consumer foods..................
Finshed consumer goods
excluding foods...............................
Nondurable goods less food.............
Durable goods................................
Capital equipment.............................

D e c .p

Interm ediate m aterials,

Crude m aterials fo r further
processing......................................................

Foodstuffs and feedstuffs.......................
Crude nonfood materials........................
Special groupings:

Finished goods, excluding foods.............
Finished energy goods......................
Finished goods less energy....................
Finished consumer goods less energy.....
Finished goods less food and energy......
Finished consumer goods less food
and energy.........................................
Consumer nondurable goods less food
and energy.....................................
Intermediate materials less foods
and feeds...........................................
Intermediate foods and feeds.................
Intermediate energy goods....................
Intermediate goods less energy..............
Intermediate materials less foods
and energy......................................

128.5
115.5
95.9
134.5

134.2
125.8
111.9
137.7

130.0
118.8
100.0
135.5

131.7
120.4
105.8
136.1

134.2
121.2
113.2
137.1

137.0
121.0
124.2
137.6

133.7
121.2
110.1
137.3

133.1
122.8
107.1
137.5

135.8

138.5

136.6

137.1

138.1

138.7

138.4

138.5

138.4

138.3

138.4

138.8

139.0

139.2

139.5

Crude energy materials..........................
Crude materials less energy..................
Crude nonfood materials less energy......

102.0
108.7
135.7

147.4
123.3
152.2

124.0
110.5
139.9

140.1
115.1
143.0

153.9
116.9
148.3

200.2
116.5
148.1

138.8
117.0
146.7

141.4
120.0
146.5

156.2
119.4
146.3

148.7
118.0
148.8

139.7
121.7
151.8

140.7
127.9
155.5

135.7
135.5
158.8

133.6
135.5
163.7

139.3
135 8
169.0

160

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

36.

Producer Price Indexes for the net output of major industry groups

[December 1984 = 100, unless otherwise indicated]
A n n u a l a v e ra g e

2003

2002

In d u s t r y

S IC

2002

_
10
12
13
14

_
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34

35
36
37
38

39

Total m ining in d u stries..........................................

Metal mining.............................................
Coal mining (12/85 - 100)..........................
Oil and gas extraction (12/85 - 100)............
Mining and quarrying of nonmetallic
minerals, except fuels..............................
Total m anufacturing industries..........................

Food and kindred products.........................
Tobacco manufactures..............................
Textile mill products...................................
Apparel and other finished products
made from fabrics and similar materials.....
Lumber and wood products,
except furniture.......................................
Furniture and fixtures.................................
Paper and allied products...........................
Printing, publishing, and allied industries.....
Chemicals and allied products.....................
Petroleum refining and related products.......
Rubber and miscellaneous plastics products.
Leather and leather products......................
Stone, clay, glass, and concrete products....
Fabricated metal products,
except machinery and transportation
equipment.........................

Dec.

2003

Jan.

Feb.

M a r.

A p r.

M ay

J u ly

Aug.

137.1
80.1
94.4
169.3

131.6
80.6
94.0
160.7

June

S e p t.p

O c t.p

N o v .p

D e c .p

125.5
82.1
94.1
151.1

126.7
83.1
94.3
152.0

123.2
84.0
95.0
147.0

122.1
86.0
94.8
145.1

127.2
89.4
95.6
152.6

96.6
73.6
93.9
107.0

131.4
80.8
94.3
160.3

113.8 126.0
74.5 78.0.
93.2
93.1
133.9 152.5

137.4
78.5
93.4
170.2

169.1
76.8
93.7
220.0

124.5
73.9
94.8
150.2

126.3
77.8
94.6
152.7

143.5

146.5

144.2

144.9

145.4

145.9

146.3

146.4

146.6

146.7

146.8

146.9

147.0

147.4

147.2

133.7
132.0
401.9
115.8

137.1
137.4
377.9
115.5

134.0
132.6
380.3
116.1

135.7
133.9
379.7
115.3

137.6
134.5
379.8
115.2

138.7
134.8
380.9
115.1

136.3
135.1
375.5
115.2

135.8
135.7
376.4
115.3

136.3
137.1
376.1
115.4

136.4
137.0
376.2
115.3

137.0
137.8
376.0
116.2

137.1
138.8
376.8
115.5

138.3
141.6
378.7
116.6

137.7
141.6
379.2
116.2

137.7
140.9
379.6
115.2

125.1

124.9

124.8

124.7

124.7

124.9

124.9

124.9

124.9

124.8

124.7

124.9

125.0

124.9

124.9

155.3
146.3
143.7

160.4
147.5
144.8

154.2
146.8
144.9

154.4
147.0
144.8

155.7
147.1
144.9

155.3
147.2
144.9

156.0
147.3
145.1

156.4
147.4
145.3

157.2
147.5
145.1

160.2
147.6
144.9

161.0
147.5
144.9

166.8
147.6
144.6

167.4
147.9
144.3

168.0
147.8
144.6

165.7
147.8
144.5

193.0
157.3
98.8
125.5
141.1
137.1
116.2

197.5
164.6
122.1
128.4
142.8
138.0
118.4

194.1
159.3
102.4
125.8
142.5
137.3
118.1

196.4
160.9
116.5
126.3
142.4
137.6
117.9

196.7
162.3
138.0
127.2
142.4
137.8
118.0

196.7
165.2
145.9
128.1
142.4
137.7
118.0

197.0
166.7
118.7
129.1
142.7
138.1
117.8

197.3
165.8
111.0
129.2
142.2
138.0
117.8

197.6
165.0
116.0
128.8
142.7
137.7
117.8

197.6
164.5
118.3
128.6
142.9
137.8
117.7

197.8
164.2
124.0
128.7
142.8
138.0
117.8

197.9
164.5
122.1
128.6
142.6
138.1
118.3

198.2
164.9
121.1
128.5
143.2
137.9
119.0

198.2
165.1
115.8
128.4
143.7
138.4
119.9

198.5
165.4
117.4
128.8
143.6
138.6
121.1

131.7

132.9

132.2

132.4

132.5

132.7

132.7

132.7

132.7

132.9

132.9

133.1

133.2

133.1

133.3

117.2

116.0

116.5

116.5

116.2

116.0

116.1

116.0

116.0

117.2

115.9

115.9

116.0

115.8

115.7

105.7
137.3

103.1
138.4

104.3
137.6

104.2
138.1

103.8
138.3

104.0
139.8

104.0
137.5

104.0
137.5

103.6
136.8

103.3
136.8

102.4
137.1

102.3
136.5

102.2
141.4

102.1
140.9

101.9
140.2

128.5

129.8

128.8

129.4

129.8

129.7

129.9

129.8

129.9

129.8

130.0

129.9

130.2

129.9

129.8

133.3

134.0

133.8

133.7

134.0

133.8

133.9

133.9

133.9

134.1

133.8

134.2

134.0

134.0

134.2

124.5
150.2
134.6
157.8
111.9

127.9
155.0
146.9
162.5
111.7

125.9
155.0
142.2
159.8
111.8

126.5
155.0
142.9
161.4
110.6

126.8
155.0
140.7
160.2
110.6

127.3
155.0
140.9
161.8
111.0

127.4
155.0
139.9
162.2
110.6

127.4
155.0
147.6
162.0
111.8

127.4
155.0
147.6
162.3
111.9

128.1
155.0
151.1
162.6
112.0

128.4
155.0
151.1
163.1
112.0

128.7
155.0
151.7
162.9
112.2

128.6
155.0
151.7
164.1
112.1

128.8
155.0
149.2
163.6
112.0

128.8
155.0
148.9
164.0
112.0

Electrical and electronic machinery,

Measuring and controlling instruments;
photographic, medical, and optical
goods; watches and clocks......................
Miscellaneous manufacturing industries
industries (12/85 - 100)...........................
S ervice industries:

42
43
44
45
46

37.

Motor freight transportation
and warehousing (06/93 - 100).................
Water transportation (12/92 - 100)..............
Transportation by air (12/92 - 100)..............
Pipelines, except natural aas (12/92 - 100)....

Annual data: Producer Price Indexes, by stage of processing

[1982 = 100]
In d e x

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

F in is h e d g o o d s

124.7
125.7
78.0
135.8

125.5
126.8
77.0
137.1

127.9
129.0
78.1
140.0

131.3
133.6
83.2
142.0

131.8
134.5
83.4
142.4

130.7
134.3
75.1
143.7

133.0
135.1
78.8
146.1

138.0
137.2
94.1
148.0

140.7
141.3
96.8
150.0

138.9
140.1
88.8
150.2

143.3
146.0
102.0
150.5

116.2
115.6
84.6
123.8

118.5
118.5
83.0
127.1

124.9
119.5
84.1
135.2

125.7
125.3
89.8
134.0

125.6
123.2
89.0
134.2

123.0
123.2
80.8
133.5

123.2
120.8
84.3
133.1

129.2
119.2
101.7
136.6

129.7
124.3
104.1
136.4

127.8
123.3
95.9
135.8

133.7
134.4
111.9
138.5

102.4
108.4
76.7
94.1

101.8
106.5
72.1
97.0

102.7
105.8
69.4
105.8

113.8
121.5
85.0
105.7

111.1
112.2
87.3
103.5

96.8
103.9
68.6
84.5

98.2
98.7
78.5
91.1

120.6
100.2
122.1
118.0

121.3
106.2
122.8
101.8

108.1
99.5
102.0
101.0

135.3
113.5
147.5
116.8

In te rm e d ia te m a te ria ls , su p p lie s , an d
c o m p o n e n ts

C ru d e m a te ria ls fo r fu rth e r p roce ssin g

Other.....................................................................


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

161

Current Labor Statistics:

Price Data

38. U.S. export price indexes by Standard International Trade Classification
[2000 =

100]

srrc
Rev. 3

2002

Industry

Jan.

Feb.

M a r.

A p r.

M ay

0 Food and live animals................................
01
Meat and meat preparations............
04
Cereals and cereal preparations.............
05
Vegetables, fruit, and nuts, prepared fresh or dry....

10S fi
an fi
126 fi
98.3

105.6
90.4
123.0

106.1
95.4
123.2
97.4

105.9
96.4

105.5
97.9

122.2

120.0

96.0

107.5
102.9
118.5
99.6

107.1
104.6
115.4

95.1

108.0
101.5
124.2
96.9

101.2

107.6
108.9
115.7
99.7

2 Crude materials, inedible, except fuels......................
22
Oilseeds and oleaginous fruits.................
24
Cork and wood..........................
25
Pulp and waste paper..........................
26
Textile fibers and their waste......................
28
Metalliferous ores and metal scrap.......................

98 5
116.2
9n.fi
fifi 2
9fl fi
96 3

99.8
119.4
90.9
82.6

101.0

100.2

101.6

99.6

104.6

102.3
116.6
91.2
88.9
105.0
105.8

103.6
118.9
91.3
90.4
106.0
107.8

104.5
127.4
91.0
89.9
104.2
105.8

103.9
122.7
90.4
90.1
103.2
109.0

103.9
124.8
90.6
85.5
106.2
112.3

102.3
109.2
90.9
85.3
107.0
117.8

3 Mineral fuels, lubricants, and related products...........
32
Coal, coke, and briquettes......................
33
Petroleum, petroleum products, and related materials...

99 5

112.0

130.1
113.9
130.2

107.5
111.9

107.6

109.8

114.9

92.2

124.1
113.7
122.9

102.5

113.7
108.1

112.2

112.1

111.2

111.2

102.8

96.4

102.7

105.9

113.0

104.2

104.1

5 Chemicals and related products. n.e.s.......................
54
Medicinal and pharmaceutical products........
55
Essential oils; polishing and cleaning preparations.......
57
Plastics in primary forms.............................
58
Plastics in nonprimary forms....................
59
Chemical materials and products, n.e.s......................

96.6
101.2
97.3
92.9
95.9
98.8

100.6

104.8
97.3
96.6
98.8

99.6
105.8
97.5
95.1
98.4

100.6

100.6

100.9
103.9
95.2
97.6
98.5
100.9

100.0

104.1
96.2
99.5
97.2
100.7

101.4
103.9
95.3
100.5
98.4
101.5

100.8

95.4
95.1
97.1

99.2
104.1
96.0
97.1
97.5

101.6

102.0

105.5
97.6
94.8
98.4
101.9

100.3
105.4
98.2
95.4
98.2
101.9

100.7
106.0
99.0
95.3
98.2
102.4

102.6

106.6
99.7
96.7
97.0
102.7

6 Manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials....
62
Rubber manufactures, n.e.s.......................
64
PaDer. oaDerboard. and articles of DaDer. duId.
and DaDerboard...........................
66
Nonmetallic mineral manufactures, n.e.s....
68
Nonferrous metals...........................

99.0
105.6

99.0
107.1

99.4

99.8
108.6

99.7
108.5

100.0

99.9

110.1

110.1

100.0
109.5

100.2

108.8

99.4
108.4

109.2

100.3
109.3

100.7
109.8

100.7
109.6

96 fi
101.3
fifi fi

97.3
100.5
82.2

97.2
100.4
83.3

96.7
100.2

96.9
100.3
82.0

97.3
100.3
79.4

98.3
100.4
80.3

98.5
100.4
79.8

100.2

80.9

98.3
99.5
81.6

97.4
99.5
81.9

97.8
99.7
83.4

97.4
99.7
85.0

98.5
105.1
101.7

98.6
106.5

98.6
106.8

98.5
106.9

102.2

102.2

98.5
107.1
102.4

97.8
107.2

102.2

98.5
107.1
102.5

102.6

98.0
107.4
103.2

97.9
107.4
103.2

97.9
107.5
103.1

97.9
107.9
103.1

97.8
108.5
103.2

97.9
108.7
103.3

101 6
88.6

102.0
88.8

102.3
89.1

102.1

102.2
88.8

102.2

102.4

102.5

102.5

102.6

88.9

102.6

88.1

88.0

87.8

87.9

102.8
88.1

102.9

88.2

96.2
92.9
101.0

95.4
92.3

95.4
92.1

94.2
92.1

94.1
92.0

93.8
89.7

101.0

101.1

93.3
89.4
101.4

92.7

101.1

93.4
89.8
101.3

88.8

101.1

93.4
89.8
101.3

93.1

101.2

95.0
92.2
100.9

101.5

88.6
101.6

92.5
88.5
101.5

101.9

101.5

101.6

101.9

102.2

102.4

102.3

102.2

102.1

102.3

102.4

7 Machinery and transport equipment...........................
71
Power generating machinery and equipment.........
72
Machinery specialized for particular industries.............
74
General industrial machines and parts, n.e.s.,
and machine parts................................
75
Computer equipment and office machines...............
76
Telecommunications and sound recording and
reproducing apparatus and equipment.....................
77
Electrical machinery and equipment............
78
Road vehicles..................................
87 Professional, scientific, and controlling
instruments and apparatus.............................

162

2003

Dec.

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

101.7

February 2004

100.6

97.9
102.1

116.6
91.1
86.4

84.3

88.6

June

J u ly

Aug.

98.3

S e p t.

O c t.

Nov.

112.1

112.2

117.2
124.2
101.4

122.9
119.4
103.2

115.2
125.0
125.6
102.7

106.2

111.1

121.1

136.7
92.0
90.8
121.4

Dec.

116.3
121.2

131.1
103.1

121.1

115.9
150.9
92.4
91.9
128.5
127.0

108.7

108.2

106.5

110.6

111.6

111.6

111.6
101.2

112.9
106.2

91.6
88.8

109.6
119.9

100.9
106.6
99.2
95.6
97.0

116.4
152.5
93.8
91.5
121.2

133.8

101.0

88.6

39.

U.S. import price indexes by Standard International Trade Classification

[2000 = 100]
sue

Industry

Rev. 3

2002

0 Food and live animals....................................................
Meat and meat preparations.....................................
01
Fish and crustaceans, mollusks, and other
03
aquatic invertebrates..............................................
Vegetables, fruit, and nuts, prepared fresh or dry.........
05
Coffee, tea, cocoa, spices, and manufactures
07
thereof..................................................................

2003
June

July

Aug.

Oct.

Nov.

Dec.

100.0
112.8

100.3
115.8

100.1
118.6

101.0
122.9

82.2
105.0

79.9
106.3

79.2
108.7

79.0
108.6

Sept.

Jan.

Feb.

Mar.

Apr.

May

98.8
106.8

100.4
101.7

100.0
107.4

101.2
108.5

101.6
108.8

99.8
110.3

99.4
102.9

100.2
106.6

99.5
108.2

82.5
105.6

81.1
111.5

82.0
104.7

81.4
110.7

84.3
108.5

83.4
103.9

81.3
108.9

83.5
106.9

82.3
105.5

99.9

104.0

106.7

100.2

100.5

99.1

94.8

95.3

96.6

98.6

95.5

93.0

95.3

103.9
103.7

104.1
104.0

104.0
103.9

104.0
103.9

104.3
104.2

104.4
104.2

104.4
104.3

Dec.

1 Beverages and tobacco................................................
11
Beverages..............................................................

102.7
102.4

103.0
102.3

103.3
102.7

104.0
103.0

104.5
103.6

104.6
103.8

2 Crude materials, inedible, except fuels.........................
24
Cork and wood........................................................
Pulp and waste paper..............................................
25
28
Metalliferous ores and metal scrap............................
Crude animal and vegetable materials, n.e.s...............
29

94.5
94.0
78.9
94.7
101.4

95.2
94.7
77.9
95.5
103.6

97.4
96.8
80.3
99.1
102.3

98.5
95.0
86.5
99.9
102.6

98.4
93.4
92.6
99.5
102.3

98.8
94.0
95.3
99.3
103.5

99.5
94.4
95.3
99.7
104.9

100.7
100.1
93.6
100.3
99.4

100.5
99.3
91.9
102.9
96.8

106.1
113.0
90.4
103.7
95.7

104.7
106.2
90.8
104.2
95.1

106.1
103.2
92.6
108.5
94.8

108.2
108.0
94.3
110.3
99.6

Petroleum, petroleum products, and related materials...

94.9
94.2
97.0

109.6
108.1
117.8

121.2
119.8
129.3

126.0
118.1
185.9

101.6
98.6
120.5

96.0
92.6
119.0

101.7
97.6
130.1

106.0
103.4
121.5

106.5
105.6
108.8

101.5
99.4
114.4

101.2
100.0
106.2

103.0
102.1
105.2

104.8
103.8
108.1

5 Chemicals and related products, n.e.s.........................
52
Inorganic chemicals.................................................
Dying, tanning, and coloring materials........................
53
54
Medicinal and pharmaceutical products......................
Essential oils; polishing and cleaning preparations.......
55
Plastics in primary forms...........................................
57
Plastics in nonprimary forms.....................................
58
Chemical materials and products, n.e.s......................
59

98.2
102.5
96.7
99.2
99.2
94.8
99.6
91.6

99.1
104.2
96.5
101.8
97.2
97.3
100.2
92.1

99.8
106.5
97.5
101.5
97.9
97.9
100.1
93.1

101.1
110.8
97.6
101.3
98.4
99.3
100.4
97.6

100.4
107.5
97.8
101.5
99.2
99.5
100.6
96.7

99.0
105.8
98.0
101.2
98.9
101.7
100.8
93.2

100.1
106.4
98.0
102.5
99.4
106.1
100.8
92.3

100.0
105.4
98.0
103.1
99.0
104.3
101.3
93.3

99.2
106.0
98.3
102.5
91.8
103.1
101.4
91.9

99.2
105.4
97.7
101.9
91.6
102.7
101.4
91.8

100.1
108.8
97.6
102.1
91.2
105.4
101.4
92.3

101.1
111.8
98.0
103.1
91.6
105.3
101.4
93.2

101.4
114.8
97.9
102.9
91.5
105.1
101.6
93.3

6 Manufactured goods classified chiefly by materials....
62
Rubber manufactures, n.e.s.....................................
64
Paper, paperboard, and articles of paper, pulp,

93.7
99.3

93.2
99.1

94.2
99.1

94.1
99.0

94.1
99.2

93.7
99.1

94.4
99.2

94.9
98.6

95.4
98.5

95.7
98.5

96.4
98.5

97.3
98.6

97.5
98.7

93.0
97.7
77.3
98.3

92.6
97.6
76.1
97.5

92.6
97.7
79.2
98.0

93.0
97.6
80.0
97.9

93.6
97.6
78.5
97.5

93.2
97.5
75.8
97.6

93.5
97.9
78.1
98.3

93.2
97.9
78.0
98.2

94.9
97.8
79.1
98.4

94.5
97.8
80.7
98.5

94.7
97.9
82.0
98.6

94.2
98.0
85.1
99.1

93.8
98.0
87.4
99.4

96.1
99.2

96.0
99.4

95.9
100.3

95.8
100.7

95.8
100.6

95.7
100.6

95.8
101.4

95.7
102.6

95.6
102.5

95.5
102.2

95.3
102.5

95.4
103.3

95.2
103.4

98.6
84.2

98.6
83.9

99.4
83.3

99.8
82.7

100.0
82.8

100.0
82.1

100.8
81.8

100.8
80.6

100.4
80.6

100.2
80.5

100.4
78.6

100.9
78.4

101.1
78.1

92.0
95.6
100.5

91.7
95.4
100.4

90.4
95.7
100.6

90.0
95.3
100.6

89.5
95.5
100.6

89.4
95.2
100.7

89.3
95.4
100.7

88.7
96.1
100.7

88.8
96.0
100.7

88.6
96.0
100.6

87.7
96.0
101.3

87.7
96.0
101.4

87.6
95.3
101.4

99.6

99.5

99.6

99.8

99.6

99.7

100.0

99.9

99.8

99.9

100.0

100.1

100.2

98.5

98.8

99.2

99.4

99.6

99.3

100.0

100.1

99.6

99.2

99.3

99.8

99.8

3
33
34

66
68
69

Nonmetallic mineral manufactures, n.e.s....................
Manufactures of metals, n.e.s...................................

7
72
74

Machinery specialized for particular industries............
Genera) industrial machines and parts, n.e.s.,

75
76

Computer equipment and office machines..................
Telecommunications and sound recordinq and
reproducing apparatus and equipment.....................

77
78
85
88

Photographic apparatus, equipment, and supplies,


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Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

163

Current Labor Statistics:

40.

Price Data

U.S. export price indexes by end-use category

[2000 =

100]

______________
2002

2003

C a te g o ry
Dec.

ALL C O M M O D IT IE S ...................................
Foods, feeds, and beverages.......................
Agricultural foods, feeds, and beverages.............
Nonagricultural (fish, beverages) food products....
Industrial supplies and materials...................
Agricultural industrial supplies and materials.........

Jan.

Feb.

M a r.

A p r.

M ay

June

J u ly

Aug.

S e p t.

O c t.

Nov.

Dec.

98.6

98.9

99.5

99.7

99.6

99.7

99.5

99.4

99.4

99.8

100.1

100.6

100.8

108.7
109.5
102.3

108.7
109.4
102.8

108.3
108.8
104.6

108.2
108.1
110.0

108.5
108.6
108.0

111.8
112.1
110.2

111.3
111.2
113.1

110.8
111.0
109.3

109.4
109.5
109.5

115.3
116.3
106.5

117.1
118 3
105.7

121 4
122 ft
107.7

122 7

96.0

97.3

99.2

100.6

100.1

99.4

100.1

99.6

100.0

100.2

101.1

101.6

102.2

101.9

103.3

103.8

104.8

104.6

103.5

104.4

104.7

105.5

107.3

113.4

119.0

117.2

108.7

Fuels and lubricants...............................
Nonagricultural supplies and materials,
excluding fuel and building materials..............
Selected building materials.................

91.3

96.2

103.8

108.0

96.3

94.5

97.0

97.0

100.4

97.6

97.7

96.7

98.9

96.4
96.2

97.3
96.1

98.8
96.5

99.9
96.4

100.7
96.6

100.2
96.5

100.7
96.3

100.0
97.5

100.1
98.0

100.5
98.4

101.1
98.8

101 5
99.1

102 1
99.4

Capital goods.................................
Electric and electrical generating equipment.......
Nonelectrical machinery..........................

98.1
101.9
95.4

98.2
101.9
95.4

98.4
101.5
95.7

98.3
101.6
95.6

98.3
101.5
95.6

98.3
101.5
95.5

97.6
101.6
94.5

97.7
101.8
94.6

97.7
101.6
94.5

97.5
101.7
94.3

97.4
101.6
94.1

97 5
101 6
94.1

Q7 6
101 ft
94.3

Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines.............

101.3

101.5

101.6

101.5

101.6

101.5

101.6

101.8

101.8

101.8

101.9

101.9

101.8

Consumer goods, excluding automotive..............
Nondurables, manufactured........................
Durables, manufactured........................

99.3
98.7
99.6

99.1
98.2
99.5

99.4
98.9
99.6

99.4
98.7
99.7

99.3
98.5
99.8

99.4
98.5
99.9

99.6
98.8
100.1

99.6
98.8
100.2

99.4
98.7
99.9

99.4
98.5
100.1

99.8
98.0
100.3

100 0
99 4
100.4

100 1
QQ4
100.5

108.2
97.8

108.3
98.2

107.9
98.8

107.5
99.1

107.9
99.0

110.6
98.8

110.0
98.7

109.9
98.6

108.8
98.7

114.7
98.6

117.5
98.7

122 1
98.9

122.9
99.1

Feb.

M a r.

A p r.

M ay

June

J u ly

Aug.

S e p t.

O c t.

Agricultural commodities........................
Nonagricultural commodities........................

41.

U.S. import price indexes by end-use category

[2000 = 100]
2002

2003

C a te g o ry
Dec.
A L L C O M M O D IT IE S .........................................

Foods, feeds, and beverages......................
Agricultural foods, feeds, and beverages.............
Nonagricultural (fish, beverages) food products....

Jan.

N ov.

D ec.

95.2

96.9

98.5

99.1

96.0

95.3

96.2

96.7

96.7

96.2

96.3

96.8

97.0

100.2
106.0
87.5

101.3
107.9
86.8

101.2
107.8
87.4

102.6
109.6
86.9

102.5
108.9
88.4

101.3
107.5
87.7

100.7
107.1
86.6

101.5
107.7
88.0

101.3
107.6
87.4

101.8
108.3
87.6

102.0
109.0
86.2

102.5
109.9
96.0

10ft 2
110 Q
85.8

Industrial supplies and materials...........................

94.6

101.3

107.4

109.7

97.6

95.3

98.2

100.2

100.5

98.9

99.4

100.7

101.9

Fuels and lubricants...........................
Petroleum and petroleum products................

94.7
94.0

109.1
107.7

120.9
119.9

125.2
118.6

99.3
96.3

94.9
91.5

100.3
96.4

103.9
101.4

104.2
103.2

99.4
97.2

100.0
98.7

101.7
100.8

103 7
102.6

Paper and paper base stocks...........................
Materials associated with nondurable
supplies and materials...................................
Selected building materials.........................
Unfinished metals associated with durable goods..
Nonmetals associated with durable goods............

89.1

88.6

89.2

91.0

93.5

94.1

94.1

93.6

94.7

94.0

94.0

94 0

100.1
95.0
91.5
97.1

101.5
95.6
90.5
96.9

102.4
96.9
93.3
97.4

104.2
96.3
92.8
97.9

103.5
95.4
91.7
97.1

102.5
96.2
89.9
97.3

103.0
96.7
92.2
98.2

102.9
101.8
92.2
97.9

102.3
102.7
92.9
97.3

102.5
110.3
93.4
97.5

103.5
109.4
92.6
97.7

104.8
108.5
96 2
98.2

104 9
107 7
Qft ft
98.3

Capital goods..................................
Electric and electrical generating equipment.........
Nonelectrical machinery.......................

93.9
94.9
92.8

93.9
95.3
92.7

93.8
95.5
92.6

93.7
95.5
92.5

93.8
95.6
92.5

93.6
96.1
92.2

93.8
96.6
92.3

93.8
96.8
92.3

93.6
96.6
92.1

93.5
95.8
92.1

93.0
96.2
91.4

93 2
96 4
91.6

9ft 0
Qft 4
91.3

100.5

100.3

100.5

100.5

100.5

100.6

100.6

100.6

100.6

100.5

101.2

101.2

101.2

98.0
99.7
96.5
95.4

98.0
99.7
96.4
95.5

97.9
99.5
96.4
95.5

97.9
99.7
96.2
95.7

97.9
99.9
96.1
95.6

97.9
99.8
96.2
95.6

98.1
99.8
96.5
95.2

98.1
99.9
96.3
95.7

97.9
99.8
96.2
95.6

97.9
99.7
96.2
95.7

97.8
99.7
96.0
95.8

98 1
100 1
96 2
95.9

100 1
9fi 2
96.2

Automotive vehicles, parts, and engines..............
Consumer goods, excluding automotive..................
Nondurables, manufactured.................
Durables, manufactured........................
Nonmanufactured consumer goods...........

42.

U.S. international price Indexes for selected categories of services

[2000 = 100]

__________________
2001

C a te g o ry

D ec.

Airfreight (inbound)........................................
Airfreight (outbound)................................
Air passenger fares (U.S. carriers)......................
Air passenger fares (foreign carriers)...................
Ocean liner freight (inbound)..........................

164

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

2002
M a r.

June

2003
S e p t.

Dec.

M a r.

June

S e p t.

Dec.

95.2
97.9

93.9
95.9

98.3
98.4

100.3
97.3

105.9
95.4

108.8
97.2

109.4
95.4

112.5
95.5

112.9
94.7

103.5
100.8
93.6

103.3
99.4
91.7

110.7
110.9
90.3

114.3
118.5
93.5

107.9
107.2
93.3

112.0
111.7
94.0

119.3
123.2
116.1

119.7
124.9
116.2

118.2
116.4
117.7

February 2004

9ft 1

43.

indexes of productivity, hourly compensation, and unit costs, quarterly data seasonally adjusted

[1992 = 100]

Ite m

IV

I

II

2003

2002

2001

2000

III

IV

II

1

III

IV

II

I

III

IV

Business

Output per hour of all persons...................................
Compensation per hour............................................
Real compensation per hour......................................
Unit labor costs.........................................................
Unit nonlabor payments............................................
Implicit price deflator.................................................

116.9
136.3
112.0
116.5
107.9
113.3

116.8
138.1
112.5
118.2
107.1
114.1

117.8
139.2
112.4
118.2
109.6
115.0

118.2
140.2
112.9
118.6
109.4
115.2

120.3
141.4
114.1
117.6
112.0
115.5

122.7
141.7
114.0
115.5
115.0
115.3

123.2
142.6
113.7
115.7
115.8
115.7

124.7
147.9
113.5
114.7
117.9
115.9

125.1
148.2
113.3
114.7
119.4
116.5

126.1
145.0
113.4
115.1
120.0
116.9

128.2
146.9
114.7
114.6
121.6
117.2

130.9
147.9
114.8
112.9
125.3
117.6

131.5
148.2
114.8
112.7
126.6
117.9

116.4
135.6
111.4
116.5
109.5
113.9

116.3
137.4
111.9
118.1
108.7
114.6

117.3
138.3
111.7
117.9
111.2
115.5

117.8
139.3
112.3
118.3
111.0
115.6

119.7
140.6
113.5
117.5
113.4
116.0

122.5
141.0
113.4
115.1
116.9
115.8

122.8
141.9
113.1
115.6
117.6
116.3

124.1
142.3
112.9
114.6
119.9
116.6

124.6
142.8
112.7
114.6
121.4
117.1

125.6
144.1
112.7
114.8
122.3
117.5

127.5
145.8
113.8
114.4
123.5
117.7

130.4
147.0
114.1
112.7
127.2
118.1

131.3
147.5
114.2
112.4
128.1
118.2

121.3
134.1
110.2
109.7
110.6
107.1
97.6
104.6
108.6

121.3
135.0
109.9
110.5
111.3
108.2
90.9
103.6
108.7

121.9
136.3
110.1
111.3
111.8
109.8
91.2
104.8
109.5

122.7
137.7
111.0
112.0
112.2
111.3
87.2
104.9
109.8

124.9
138.9
112.1
111.3
111.2
111.4
96.4
107.4
109.9

126.3
138.0
111.0
111.0
109.3
111.9
105.3
110.1
109.5

128.2
139.5
111.3
109.6
108.8
111.5
112.3
111.7
109.8

129.7
140.5
111.5
109.2
108.3
111.5
111.8
111.6
109.4

131.0
141.6
111.8
109.0
108.1
111.3
116.2
112.6
109.6

131.7
142.8
111.6
109.0
108.4
110.7
114.0
111.6
109.5

134.7
144.7
113.0
107.6
107.4
108.0
130.7
114.1
109.6

137.5
146.0
113.4
106.6
106.2
107.6
143.7
117.3
109.9

135.3
137.1
112.6
101.3

134.8
138.5
112.8
102.7

136.2
137.6
111.1
101.0

137.5
137.3
110.9
100.1

140.5
139.6
112.6
99.4

143.8
140.9
113.3
98.0

146.0
143.0
114.1
97.9

148.1
144.2
114.4
97.4

148.4
145.4
114.8
98.0

149.9
147.5
115.3
98.4

150.8
149.3
116.6
99.0

154.4
151.1
117.3
97.9

Nonfarm business

Output per hour of all persons...................................
Real compensation per hour......................................
Unit labor costs.........................................................
Unit nonlabor payments............................................
Implicit price deflator.................................................
Nonfinancial corporations

Compensation per hour............................................
Real compensation per hour......................................
Total unit costs.........................................................
Unit labor costs.......................................................
Unit nonlabor costs.................................................
Unit nonlabor payments............................................
Implicit price deflator.................................................

-

—

“

Manufacturing

Output per hour of all persons...................................
Real compensation per hour.....................................
Unit labor costs.........................................................


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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

156.2
151.6
117.5
97.1

16£

Current Labor Statistics: Productivity Data

44.

Annual indexes of multifactor productivity and related measures, selected years

[1996 = 100]
Item

1 98 0

1 99 0

1991

1 99 2

1 99 3

1 99 4

1995

1 99 7

1 99 8

1 99 9

2000

2 001

Private business

Productivity:
Output per hour of all persons.................................
Output per unit of capital services...........................
Multifactor productivity.................................
Output................................................
Inputs:
Labor input....................................................
Capital services......................................
Combined units of labor and capital input.................
Capital per hour of all persons...............................

75.8
103.3
88.8
59.4

90.2
99.7
95.5
83.6

91.3
96.5
94.5
82.6

94.8
98.0
96.7
85.7

95.4
98.7
97.1
88.5

96.6
100.4
98.2
92.8

97.3
99.8
98.4
95.8

102.2
100.3
101.2
105.2

105.0
99.3
102.5
110.5

107.7
98.2
103.4
115.7

111.0
96.6
105.0
120.4

112.4
92.8
103.9
120.2

71.9
57.6
67.0
73.4

89.4
83.8
87.5
90.4

88.3
85.7
87.4
94.6

89.3
87.5
88.7
96.8

91.8
89.7
91.1
96.6

95.6
92.5
94.6
96.2

98.0
96.0
97.3
97.5

103.5
104.9
104.0
101.9

106.1
111.3
107.9
105.8

109.0
117.9
110.9
109.7

110.1
124.5
114.7
114.8

109.5
129.6
115.7
121.1

77.3
107.6
91.0
59.6

90.3
100.4
95.8
83.5

91.4
97.0
94.8
82.5

94.8
98.2
96.7
85.5

95.3
99.0
97.2
88.4

96.5
100.4
98.2
92.6

97.5
100.0
98.6
95.8

102.0
100.0
101.0
105.1

104.7
99.0
102.2
110.5

107.1
97.6
102.9
115.7

110.3
95.9
104.4
120.2

111.6
92.0
103.3
120.1

70.7
55.4
65.9
71.8

89.2
83.2
87.2
89.9

87.9
85.1
87.0
94.3

89.0
87.0
88.4
96.5

91.8
89.4
91.0
96.3

95.4
92.2
94.5
96.1

97.8
95.8
97.2
97.6

103.6
105.1
104.1
101.9

106.4
111.7
108.1
105.8

109.5
118.5
112.4
109.7

110.6
125.4
115.2
115.0

110.1
130.5
116.3
121.3

62.0
97.2
81.2
64.3

82.2
97.5
93.3
83.2

84.1
93.6
92.4
81.5

88.6
95.9
94.0
85.5

90.2
96.9
95.1
88.3

93.0
99.7
97.3
92.4

96.5
100.6
99.2
96.9

103.8
101.4
103.4
105.6

108.9
101.7
105.7
110.5

114.9
101.7
108.7
114.7

118.3
101.0
110.3
117.4

119.7
95.1
110.3
112.1

103.7
66.1
86.1
63.9
65.8
79.2

101.1
85.3
93.1
77.5
84.7
89.1

96.9
87.1
93.2
78.5
84.6
88.3

96.5
89.1
93.1
83.5
92.0
90.9

97.8
91.1
96.6
86.1
92.9
92.8

99.9
93.2
99.9
90.3
96.0
95.5

100.4
96.4
102.3
93.1
100.4
97.7

101.7
104.1
97.5
101.9
103.9
102.4

101.5
108.7
100.6
107.5
103.1
104.6

100.7
112.8
102.9
107.9
105.4
105.5

99.2
116.2
104.3
106.9
106.5
105.5

99.6
117.9
98.9
105.5
97.7
101.6

Private nonfarm business

Productivity:
Output per hour of all persons.................................
Output per unit of capital services............................
Multifactor productivity.....................................
Output...........................................
Inputs:
Labor input.............................................
Capital services....................................
Combined units of labor and capital input.................
Capital per hour of all persons.............................
Manufacturing

Productivity:
Output per hour of all persons...............................
Output per unit of capital services............................
Multifactor productivity.......................................
Output....................................................
Inputs:
Hours of all persons......................................
Capital services...........................................
Energy.........................................
Nonenergy materials.........................................
Purchased business services...........................
Combined units of all factor inputs............................

166

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

44. Annual indexes of multifactor productivity and related measures, selected years
[1996 = 100]
Ite m

1 980

1 99 0

1991

1 99 2

1 99 4

1 993

1 99 5

1997

1 99 9

1998

2000

2001

Private business

Productivity:
Output per hour of all persons.................................
Output per unit of capital services............................
Multifactor productivity............................................
Output......................................................................
Inputs:
Labor input.............................................................
Capital services......................................................
Capital per hour of all persons...................................

75.8
103.3
88.8
59.4

90.2
99.7
95.5
83.6

91.3
96.5
94.5
82.6

94.8
98.0
96.7
85.7

95.4
98.7
97.1
88.5

96.6
100.4
98.2
92.8

97.3
99.8
98.4
95.8

102.2
100.3
101.2
105.2

105.0
99.3
102.5
110.5

107.7
98.2
103.4
115.7

111.0
96.6
105.0
120.4

112.4
92.8
103.9
120.2

71.9
57.6
67.0
73.4

89.4
83.8
87.5
90.4

88.3
85.7
87.4
94.6

89.3
87.5
88.7
96.8

91.8
89.7
91.1
96.6

95.6
92.5
94.6
96.2

98.0
96.0
97.3
97.5

103.5
104.9
104.0
101.9

106.1
111.3
107.9
105.8

109.0
117.9
110.9
109.7

110.1
124.5
114.7
114.8

109.5
129.6
115.7
121.1

77.3
107.6
91.0
59.6

90.3
100.4
95.8
83.5

91.4
97.0
94.8
82.5

94.8
98.2
96.7
85.5

95.3
99.0
97.2
88.4

96.5
100.4
98.2
92.6

97.5
100.0
98.6
95.8

102.0
100.0
101.0
105.1

104.7
99.0
102.2
110.5

107.1
97.6
102.9
115.7

110.3
95.9
104.4
120.2

111.6
92.0
103.3
120.1

70.7
55.4
65.9
71.8

89.2
83.2
87.2
89.9

87.9
85.1
87.0
94.3

89.0
87.0
88.4
96.5

91.8
89.4
91.0
96.3

95.4
92.2
94.5
96.1

97.8
95.8
97.2
97.6

103.6
105.1
104.1
101.9

106.4
111.7
108.1
105.8

109.5
118.5
112.4
109.7

110.6
125.4
115.2
115.0

110.1
130.5
116.3
121.3

62.0
97.2
81.2
64.3

82.2
97.5
93.3
83.2

84.1
93.6
92.4
81.5

88.6
95.9
94.0
85.5

90.2
96.9
95.1
88.3

93.0
99.7
97.3
92.4

96.5
100.6
99.2
96.9

103.8
101.4
103.4
105.6

108.9
101.7
105.7
110.5

114.9
101.7
108.7
114.7

118.3
101.0
110.3
117.4

119.7
95.1
110.3
112.1

103.7
66.1
86.1
63.9
65.8
79.2

101.1
85.3
93.1
77.5
84.7
89.1

96.9
87.1
93.2
78.5
84.6
88.3

96.5
89.1
93.1
83.5
92.0
90.9

97.8
91.1
96.6
86.1
92.9
92.8

99.9
93.2
99.9
90.3
96.0
95.5

100.4
96.4
102.3
93.1
100.4
97.7

101.7
104.1
97.5
101.9
103.9
102.4

101.5
108.7
100.6
107.5
103.1
104.6

100.7
112.8
102.9
107.9
105.4
105.5

99.2
116.2
104.3
106.9
106.5
105.5

99.6
117.9
98.9
105.5
97.7
101.6

Private nonfarm business

Productivity:

Multifactor productivity............................................
Output......................................................................
Inputs:
Labor input.............................................................
Capital services......................................................

Manufacturing

Productivity:
Output per hour of all persons.................................
Multifactor productivity............................................
Output......................................................................
Inputs:
Hours of all persons...............................................
Capital services......................................................
Energy...................................................................
Purchased business services..................................
Combined units of all factor inputs...........................


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

167

Current Labor Statistics: Productivity Data

46.

A n n u a l in d e x e s o f o u tp u t p e r h o u r f o r s e le c te d

n a ic s

in d u s tr ie s , 1 9 9 0 *2 0 0 1

1997=100]
N A IC S

In d u s t r y

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

M in in g

21
211
212
2121
2122
2123

Oil and gas extraction....................
Mining, except oil and gas....................
Coal mining................................
Metal ore mining........................
Nonmetallic mineral mining and quarrying........

2211
2212

Power generation and supply..........................
Natural gas distribution......................

3111
3112
3113
3114
3115

Animal food..............................
Grain and oilseed milling.....................
Sugar and confectionery products.............
Fruit and vegetable preserving and specialty.....
Dairy products............................

3116
3117
3118
3119
3121

Animal slaughtering and processing.....
Seafood product preparation and packaging....
Bakeries and tortilla manufacturing............
Other food products...............................
Beverages....................................

3122
3131
3132
3133
3141

Tobacco and tobacco products.............
Fiber, yam, and thread mills........................
Fabric mills............................
Textile and fabric finishing mills................
Textile furnishings mills.......................

3149
3151
3152
3159
3161

86.1
78.4
79.3
68.1
79.9
92.3

86.9
78.8
80.0
69.3
82.7
89.5

95.4
81.9
86.8
75.3
91.7
96.1

96.3
85.1
89.9
79.9
102.2
93.6

99.6
90.3
93.0
83.9
104.1
96.9

101.8
95.5
94.0
88.2
98.5
97.3

101.8
98.9
96.0
94.9
95.3
97.1

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

103.5
101.6
104.6
106.5
109.5
101.2

111.1
107.9
105.9
110.3
112.7
101.2

109.2
114.5
106.8
115.8
124 4
96.2

107 4
116 6
109.0
114.4
131 8
99.4

71.2
71.4

73.8
72.7

74.1
75.8

78.7
79.8

83.0
82.2

88.6
89.0

95.5
96.1

100.0
100.0

103.8
99.1

104.1
103.1

107.0
113.4

106 4
110.2

90.1
89.0
91.0
86.4
90.9

89.3
91.3
93.8
89.7
92.1

90.2
91.2
90.6
90.7
95.5

90.2
94.0
92.6
93.9
94.0

87.3
94.8
93.9
95.0
95.5

94.0
99.1
94.2
97.2
99.0

87.5
91.4
98.3
98.2
98.2

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

109.4
107.6
104.0
106.8
99.2

109.5
114.1
107.2
108.5
94.5

109 7
112 5
112.1
109.9
96.1

127 2
117 4
109 8
117 2
96.3

94.6
117.5
92.6
92.0
86.5

97.0
112.0
92.2
93.6
90.0

101.6
115.3
95.4
96.0
93.7

101.0
113.9
96.0
102.9
93.1

97.6
114.1
96.7
100.3
97.7

98.7
108.4
99.7
101.2
99.6

94.4
116.2
97.8
103.1
101.2

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

99.9
117.0
103.6
107.0
98.6

100.4
130.2
105.5
108.8
92.4

101.9
137 6
105.2
110.3
90.7

102 8
147 3
106 2
103.4
91.8

81.4
73.9
75.0
81.7
88.1

77.3
74.7
77.7
80.4
88.6

79.6
80.1
81.5
83.7
92.8

73.7
84.6
85.0
86.0
93.7

89.8
87.2
91.9
87.8
90.0

97.5
92.0
95.8
84.5
92.5

99.4
98.7
98.0
85.0
93.2

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

98.1
102.2
103.9
100.6
99.9

92.1
104.6
109.8
101.7
101.2

98.0
102.6
110.2
104.0
106.6

100 0
110.5
109 1
109 7
106.9

Other textile product mills..............................
Apparel knitting mills........................
Cut and sew apparel..................
Accessories and other apparel....................
Leather and hide tanning and finishing...............

91.1
85.6
70.1
100.9
60.8

89.9
88.7
72.0
97.3
56.6

92.0
93.5
73.2
98.7
76.7

90.2
102.6
76.6
99.0
83.1

94.7
104.5
80.4
104.6
75.9

95.8
109.5
85.5
112.4
78.6

96.3
122.0
90.7
112.6
91.5

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

97.0
96.6
104.0
110.8
98.0

110.5
102.0
118.8
103.3
101.6

110.5
110.4
127.8
104.9
110.0

105.0
108.2
131 8
114 8
109.7

3162
3169
3211
3212
3219

Footwear.......................................
Other leather products......................
Sawmills and wood preservation.......
Plywood and engineered wood products............
Other wood products.....................

77.1
102.5
79.2
102.3
105.4

74.7
100.2
81.6
107.4
104.7

83.1
97.0
86.1
114.7
104.2

81.7
94.3
82.6
109.1
103.0

90.4
80.0
85.1
105.8
99.2

95.6
73.2
91.0
101.8
100.3

103.4
79.7
96.2
101.2
100.7

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.9
109.2
100.8
105.6
101.6

116.8
100.4
105.4
99.9
105.3

124.1
107.6
106.5
100.6
104.0

142.7
114.1
109 0
104.8
104.7

3221
3222
3231
3241
3251

Pulp, paper, and paperboard mills......................
Converted paper products............................
Printing and related support activities.................
Petroleum and coal products......................
Basic chemicals.................................

88.5
90.4
96.7
76.7
91.5

88.1
93.5
95.4
75.8
90.2

92.2
93.5
101.4
79.1
89.5

92.6
96.3
100.2
84.6
90.0

97.4
97.5
98.4
85.7
95.2

101.9
97.0
98.8
90.2
92.4

97.4
98.2
99.6
94.8
90.1

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

103.0
102.5
100.5
102.2
102.7

111.3
101.5
103.5
108.0
114.8

115.6
101.8
105.0
113.2
118.4

117 2
100.9
105 7
112 2
111.0

3252
3253
3254
3266
3256

Resin, rubber, and artificial fibers...............
Agricultural chemicals..............................
Pharmaceuticals and medicines................
Paints, coatings, and adhesives..................
Soap, cleaning compounds, and toiletries..........

75.7
84.6
91.4
85.1
83.2

74.8
81.0
92.7
85.9
84.2

80.7
81.3
88.1
87.6
83.4

83.8
85.6
88.1
90.9
87.0

93.4
87.4
92.4
94.1
88.6

95.9
90.7
96.3
92.7
93.9

93.3
92.1
99.9
98.3
95.7

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

105.4
98.8
92.9
99.1
96.6

108.9
87.6
94.6
98.8
91.2

108.1
91.4
93.4
98.5
99.3

103 8
91 1
97 3
102 1
102.6

3259
3261
3262
3271
3272

Other chemical products and preparations.........
Plastics products...................................
Rubber products................................
Clay products and refractories.......................
Glass and glass products......................

76.6
84.7
83.0
89.2
80.0

78.0
86.3
83.9
87.4
79.3

84.7
90.4
84.8
91.5
84.5

90.6
91.7
90.3
91.8
86.1

92.6
94.4
90.2
96.6
87.6

94.4
94.4
92.9
97.3
88.7

94.2
97.0
94.3
102.7
96.7

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

99.4
103.4
100.5
101.1
102.6

109.2
109.3
101.4
103.4
108.6

120.0
111.3
103.8
103.5
109.8

111 3
113 1
104 1
97.6
105.2

3273
3274
3279
3311
3312

Cement and concrete products.................
Lime and gypsum products.......................
Other nonmetallic mineral products..............
Iron and steel mills and ferroalloy production....
Steel products from purchased stee............

95.0
84.1
79.8
69.6
83.7

93.7
82.7
81.4
67.2
86.2

94.9
88.5
90.2
74.1
89.6

96.5
90.1
89.3
81.7
95.8

95.0
87.8
90.5
87.2
100.0

98.2
88.8
91.7
89.7
100.2

100.6
92.4
96.5
94.1
100.2

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

103.4
113.1
98.8
101.7
100.2

104.3
102.7
95.5
106.5
94.0

100.4
97.0
95.6
108.5
96.1

97 1
100 1
96 8
106.7
97.0

3313
3314
3315
3321
3322

Alumina and aluminum production...........
Other nonferrous metal production................
Foundries.................................
Forging and stamping...............................
Cutlery and hand tools..........................

91.9
95.7
85.1
88.6
85.1

93.3
95.8
84.4
86.5
85.4

96.8
98.7
85.7
91.7
87.2

96.0
101.8
89.7
94.6
91.7

100.3
105.1
91.4
93.7
94.4

96.8
103.0
93.1
94.2
97.8

95.9
105.6
96.2
97.6
104.4

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

101.1
111.1
101.5
103.7
100.0

104.3
108.8
104.7
110.9
107.8

97.8
103.1
103.8
121.3
105.8

96.9
100.5
109.4
121 8
110.2

3323
3324
3325
3326
3327

Architectural and structural metals..............
Boilers, tanks, and shipping containers...............
Hardware........................................
Spring and wire products..................
Machine shops and threaded products...............
See note at end ot table.

87.8
90.4
84.4
85.2
78.8

89.2
92.6
83.8
88.4
79.6

92.6
95.3
86.9
90.9
87.2

93.4
94.8
89.6
95.3
86.9

95.1
100.5
95.7
91.5
91.5

93.8
97.8
97.3
99.5
98.8

94.2
100.7
102.6
102.8
100.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

101.0
101.3
101.0
111.6
99.3

101.8
98.9
106.5
112.9
103.8

101.0
97.7
115.8
114.6
107.3

100.7
98.2
114.6
110.6
107.4

U t i li t i e s

M a n u f a c t u r in g

168

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

4 6 . C o n tin u e d — A n n u a l in d e x e s o f o u tp u t p e r h o u r f o r s e le c t e d NAICS in d u s tr ie s , 1 9 9 0 -2 0 0 1

[1997 = 100]

__________________________________________________
In d u s t r y

N A IC S

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1999

1998

2000

2001

3328
3329
3331
3332
3333

Coating, engraving, and heat treating metals
Other fabricated metal products
Agriculture, construction, and mining machinery
Industrial machinery
Commercial and service industry machinery

81.6
86.6
82.9
80.6
91.6

77.9
85.9
77.3
81.1
89.8

86.7
90.5
79.6
79.5
96.6

91.7
92.0
84.1
84.9
101.9

96.4
94.9
91.0
90.0
101.2

102.6
97.0
95.7
97.9
103.2

102.8
98.7
96.0
98.8
106.5

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

101.5
102.2
104.3
94.4
107.8

101.3
100.2
95.1
105.2
111.3

105.8
100.7
101.2
129.7
101.6

104.7
98.0
99.5
104.6
94.4

3334
3335
3336
3339
3341

HVAC and commercial refrigeration equipment
Metalworking machinery
Turbine and power transmission equipment
Other general purpose machinery
Computer and peripheral equipment

88.8
85.3
85.0
86.0
14.3

88.2
82.2
84.4
85.2
15.8

90.8
89.3
81.2
85.2
20.6

93.8
89.2
84.7
89.9
27.9

97.3
93.9
93.2
91.5
35.9

96.6
98.9
92.0
94.5
51.2

97.8
98.1
97.8
95.0
72.6

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

106.6
99.0
106.4
103.1
138.7

110.4
100.4
113.2
105.6
190.3

108.3
106.4
116.9
113.0
225.2

110.8
102.0
130.1
109.4
237.0

3342
3343
3344
3345
3346

Communications equipment
Audio and video equipment
Semiconductors and electronic components
Electronic instruments
Magnetic media manufacturing and reproduction

47.3
75.5
21.4
76.0
86.6

49.3
82.8
24.5
80.4
91.2

59.3
92.1
29.6
83.0
93.0

62.1
98.8
34.1
85.8
96.8

70.1
108.5
43.1
88.8
106.1

74.6
140.0
63.4
96.7
106.7

84.3
104.7
81.8
97.6
103.8

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

102.7
103.1
125.3
101.3
105.4

134.0
116.2
174.5
105.0
106.8

165.5
123.3
233.3
114.2
104.0

155.2
126.3
231.6
116.0
98.6

3351
3352
3353
3359
3361

Electric lighting equipment
Household appliances
Electrical equipment
Other electrical equipment and components
Motor vehicles

87.2
76.5
73.5
75.3
86.0

88.4
76.6
72.7
74.3
82.4

93.7
82.4
78.7
81.7
91.2

90.7
89.0
85.7
86.9
89.8

94.5
95.1
88.9
89.5
90.2

92.1
92.8
98.0
92.1
88.6

95.4
93.3
100.1
95.9
91.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

103.7
105.2
99.6
105.6
113.2

102.4
104.4
98.8
115.1
123.2

101.8
117.6
100.6
120.6
110.4

105.4
122.6
100.9
113.7
108.9

3362
3363
3364
3365
3366

Motor vehicle bodies and trailers
Motor vehicle parts
Aerospace products and parts
Railroad rolling stock
Ship and boat building

75.9
75.7
87.7
77.2
99.7

71.7
74.7
92.0
80.0
92.7

88.2
82.6
94.0
81.1
98.6

96.3
88.6
98.1
82.3
101.4

97.8
91.8
93.7
83.1
99.0

97.2
92.4
93.7
82.0
93.2

98.5
93.1
98.0
80.9
94.1

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

102.5
104.8
118.5
102.9
100.3

103.2
110.5
118.1
116.0
112.3

98.6
112.6
101.0
117.7
120.1

99.4
114.7
114.8
124.7
119.9

3369
3371
3372
3379
3391
3399

Other transportation equipment
Household and institutional furniture
Office furniture and fixtures
Other furniture-related products
Medical equipment and supplies
Other miscellaneous manufacturing

62.6
87.7
80.9
88.1
81.2
90.2

62.1
88.1
78.8
88.6
83.1
90.7

88.3
92.8
86.3
88.4
88.1
90.0

99.7
93.7
88.0
90.5
91.1
92.3

93.3
93.9
83.4
93.6
90.8
93.1

92.8
97.0
84.5
94.5
95.0
96.0

99.8
99.4
85.6
96.7
100.0
99.6

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

110.6
102.5
100.3
107.2
108.9
102.1

113.1
103.5
98.5
102.5
109.6
105.3

131.0
102.6
100.2
100.1
114.2
113.1

146.9
106.1
97.1
105.3
119.0
110.9

42
423
4231
4232
4233

Wholesale trade
Durable goods
Motor vehicles and parts
Furniture and furnishings
Lumber and construction supplies

78.3
65.6
76.6
82.4
115.0

79.5
66.1
73.3
87.2
113.2

86.5
75.0
82.2
92.0
119.6

89.6
80.4
88.0
95.9
113.9

91.4
84.2
94.1
93.3
112.0

93.1
88.5
93.6
96.8
103.6

95.9
93.5
94.9
97.0
102.9

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

104.8
106.3
104.7
97.5
102.9

111.6
116.6
119.8
100.8
104.9

114.7
121.2
114.0
105.5
101.7

116.6
119.7
114.1
105.4
108.6

4234
4235
4236
4237
4238

Commercial equipment
Metals and minerals
Electric goods
Hardware and plumbing
Machinery and supplies

32.7
108.1
47.4
96.3
76.2

36.1
109.1
48.2
93.3
72.0

46.6
116.0
51.9
102.6
77.8

54.3
117.4
59.6
99.8
82.6

58.4
114.3
68.6
105.8
84.1

72.1
103.8
79.6
101.0
88.8

85.3
104.0
88.0
100.6
93.4

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

122.4
102.4
105.9
103.5
104.2

150.2
96.0
126.2
107.8
101.4

160.6
99.1
151.7
111.1
104.1

158.9
101.9
148.1
102.6
102.7

4239
424
4241
4242
4243

Miscellaneous durable goods
Nondurable goods
Paper and paper products
Druggists' goods
Apparel and piece goods

91.8
98.2
81.3
84.7
104.9

98.7
99.6
85.7
89.2
104.2

114.1
103.0
96.8
93.9
100.7

114.9
102.8
97.5
90.9
98.2

107.3
101.6
101.7
94.2
104.2

100.0
99.6
99.1
96.4
92.5

101.4
99.2
96.6
98.8
99.1

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

101.8
102.8
100.5
99.6
104.1

112.6
104.1
105.6
101.7
103.5

116.7
103.5
105.5
96.8
102.6

116.1
106.9
109.0
101.2
102.4

4244
4245
4246
4247
4248

Grocery and related products
Farm product raw materials
Chemicals
Petroleum
Alcoholic beverages

96.6
75.9
107.3
97.4
109.4

98.4
80.9
106.7
107.1
111.2

103.8
80.9
112.6
118.3
107.4

105.2
80.0
110.1
119.2
105.5

103.3
77.5
110.6
115.9
105.9

103.0
85.7
102.2
108.7
102.4

99.9
89.6
100.1
105.9
104.4

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

101.9
100.4
99.3
115.0
109.6

103.6
114.3
98.0
112.0
110.0

105.2
119.0
95.8
108.9
111.0

109.4
120.1
93.7
108.4
111.5

4249
42511
42512

Miscellaneous nondurable goods
Business to business electronic markets
Wholesale trade agents and brokers

107.2
69.2
71.2

98.1
70.7
74.5

93.8
78.5
83.5

97.5
83.1
87.3

94.8
86.8
89.2

96.1
89.1
92.9

98.7
94.3
97.8

100.0
100.0
100.0

101.7
104.3
104.9

99.6
123.4
110.5

106.2
143.3
116.5

104.2
168.9
114.2

44-45
441
4411
4412
4413

Retail trade
Motor vehicle and parts dealers
Automobile dealers
Other motor vehicle dealers
Auto parts, accessories, and tire stores

83.8
90.1
91.9
72.7
87.3

84.0
88.8
90.7
75.6
86.3

87.5
92.9
94.6
82.6
91.4

90.2
94.2
95.8
87.7
92.4

93.5
97.1
97.9
92.9
97.0

95.0
97.2
97.1
93.0
99.0

98.0
98.9
98.9
98.6
98.8

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

104.3
102.6
102.6
106.0
105.7

110.0
106.4
106.4
113.0
110.0

114.4
107.4
106.9
108.6
112.0

117.4
109.1
108.0
112.4
109.3

442
4421
4422
443
444

Furniture and home furnishings stores
Furniture stores
Home furnishings stores
Electronics and appliance stores
Building material and garden supply stores

81.3
82.1
79.9
45.1
82.3

81.7
83.5
79.0
48.4
80.7

88.8
88.9
88.4
56.1
84.6

88.9
89.0
88.5
64.7
88.5

90.8
88.9
93.2
77.0
94.2

94.4
92.5
96.6
88.8
94.1

99.5
97.8
101.7
94.7
97.8

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

101.7
102.1
101.3
123.8
106.7

109.5
108.2
111.2
153.6
112.2

115.5
114.8
116.6
180.1
113.1

116.5
119.2
113.5
202.7
115.7

W h o le s a le tra d e

R e ta il t r a d e

See note at end of table.


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

169

Current Labor Statistics: Productivity Data

4 6 . C o n tin u e d — A n n u a l in d e x e s o f o u tp u t p e r h o u r fo r s e le c t e d NAICS in d u s tr ie s , 1 9 9 0 -2 0 0 1

1997=100]
N A IC S

In d u s try

4441
4442
445
4451
4452

Building material and supplies dealers...............
Lawn and garden equipment and supplies stores
Food and beverage stores.................................
Grocery stores.................................................
Specialty food stores........................................

83.6
75.6
108.8
107.9
141.4

81.1
78.6
108.3
108.0
132.3

85.2
81.5
108.8
108.4
128.7

89.6
82.6
106.8
107.0
121.0

4453

Beer, wine and liquor stores..............................

100.1

100.2

101.0

94.4

446
447
448

Health and personal care stores........................
Gasoline stations..............................................
Clothing and clothing accessories stores............

92.9
88.5
70.2

92.3
89.3
71.1

91.3
92.2
75.9

92.6
95.9
79.4

4481

Clothing stores.................................................

69.8

72.2

78.0

80.0

4482
4483
451
4511
4512

Shoe stores.....................................................
Jewelry, luggage, and leather goods stores......
Sporting goods, hobby, book, and music stores
Sporting goods and musical instrument stores
Book, periodical, and music stores....................

73.7
68.6
81.2
79.6
84.4

73.1
64.5
86.1
85.6
86.8

78.2
65.0
84.1
82.4
87.4

452
4521
4529
453
4531

General merchandise stores.............................
Department stores...........................................
Other general merchandise stores.....................
Miscellaneous store retailers.............................
Florists............................................................

75.3
84.1
61.5
68.0
75.2

79.0
88.3
64.8
65.4
76.0

4532
4533
4539
454
4541

Office supplies, stationery and gift stores........
Used merchandise stores..................................
Other miscellaneous store retailers....................
Nonstore retailers.............................................
Electronic shopping and mail-order houses........

62.0
80.8
75.7
55.3
43.5

4542
4543

Vending machine operators..............................
Direct selling establishments.............................

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

95.3
87.7
105.3
105.7
114.1

1995

1996

1997

1998

95.1
87.7
103.1
103.5
107.3

97.8
97.6
100.7
101.0
98.3

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

107.6
101.3
99.9
100.3
94.7

92.9

96.2

103.1

100.0

92.3
99.1
83.7

93.1
101.5
91.6

95.7
100.3
98.1

100.0
100.0
100.0

82.5

90.7

97.4

79.2
77.1
84.7
83.0
88.1

88.3
85.0
88.4
86.8
91.4

93.7
94.1
92.7
92.3
93.5

102.4
97.3
95.4
93.9
98.2

83.0
91.6
69.6
74.0
85.1

88.5
95.0
77.9
80.4
91.4

90.6
95.1
82.7
87.8
85.4

92.1
94.5
87.5
89.5
83.5

63.5
79.0
65.9
56.2
46.7

71.8
87.8
74.5
62.2
50.6

77.9
88.6
81.4
66.5
58.3

89.2
86.9
90.3
75.3
62.9

97.6
83.2

95.8
80.0

95.1
87.4

92.8
87.2

77.5
69.8
88.5
96.1

78.2
75.3
92.5
95.8

81.4
82.3
97.5
96.5

1999

2000

2001

113.5
103.7
103.6
104.3
99.4

113.8
108.5
105.1
104.9
105.3

115.2
119.7
107.7
107.5
110.8

105.8

99.8

111.1

110.4

103.9
105.6
105.4

106.9
110.6
112.9

111.5
106.5
120.3

112.4
110.0
123.7

100.0

106.7

113.4

120.9

125.3

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

97.8
107.7
108.2
112.2
101.2

104.9
119.2
114.1
119.6
104.1

109.6
128.6
120.8
129.2
105.7

115.8
124.1
124.4
131.4
110.8

96.9
98.3
94.5
95.6
96.1

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

105.1
100.8
113.5
106.8
101.2

113.0
104.3
129.6
107.7
117.3

120.1
106.5
146.2
109.2
115.6

124.3
104.1
162.6
107.7
121.1

90.9
89.9
90.6
80.1
71.9

93.4
96.9
97.8
91.5
84.4

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

111.1
111.3
103.6
113.4
118.2

114.6
105.9
100.3
126.6
141.5

122.0
112.6
97.2
155.0
159.8

136.1
103.6
84.4
161.8
177.5

94.1
99.9

89.3
98.4

96.9
105.4

100.0
100.0

114.1
96.7

119.8
92.2

131.2
110.0

115.0
105.5

84.7
85.7
95.6
99.0

90.8
88.6
98.1
98.5

95.3
92.0
95.4
98.3

98.8
98.4
95.7
96.7

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

97.6
102.1
99.1
101.4

98.2
107.5
102.1
102.4

98.2
115.4
105.2
104.9

91.9
123.1
103.3
106.1

T r a n s p o r ta tio n a n d w a r e h o u s in g

481
482111
48412
491

Air transportation..............................................
Line-haul railroads...........................................
General freight trucking, long-distance...............
U.S. Postal service...........................................

5111
5112
51213
5151
5152

Newspaper, book, and directory publishers.......
Software publishers..........................................
Motion picture and video exhibition....................
Radio and television broadcasting......................
Cable and other subscription programming.......

97.2
41.3
113.5
100.9
102.1

95.8
44.2
113.0
101.1
97.6

95.3
61.6
108.2
103.2
99.3

94.9
68.5
107.8
102.4
96.8

92.8
79.1
105.8
106.1
95.4

93.3
83.2
101.5
106.3
98.1

92.8
93.7
100.8
103.1
96.2

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

105.1
115.7
99.8
100.6
100.1

109.4
115.5
102.0
101.8
99.4

110.3
111.1
106.5
103.4
95.9

107.6
109.4
104.6
98.2
91.7

5171
5172

Wired telecommunications carriers.....................
Wireless telecommunications carriers................

65.5
76.0

70.8
73.5

76.8
85.6

81.7
94.8

85.8
97.1

90.6
98.3

97.5
103.0

100.0
100.0

106.9
114.2

114.6
133.9

122.3
138.2

124.3
171.6

52211

Commercial banking.........................................

80.7

83.2

83.4

90.2

92.7

95.9

99.1

100.0

98.4

101.5

105.1

102.3

89.8
72.2

97.8
73.1

104.4
70.9

106.1
76.2

107.9
83.0

101.1
91.2

108.9
97.1

100.0
100.0

102.1
104.7

114.4
108.8

113.3
104.8

113.4
102.9

79.8

74.5

86.1

89.5

90.1

88.6

96.5

100.0

94.3

111.2

116.7

118.1

102.8
103.4
99.7
104.0
107.2
125.7

100.2
102.2
98.2
103.1
106.8
121.2

108.7
101.6
97.4
102.6
106.3
121.4

105.5
102.4
97.8
105.7
103.8
112.7

108.0
101.1
98.2
104.0
101.1
102.6

107.2
100.9
96.9
105.0
99.3
104.5

105.4
99.4
96.5
102.5
97.6
102.4

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

100.3
101.3
100.1
102.7
102.1
100.0

102.2
101.7
99.4
103.5
106.0
99.4

107.1
104.4
101.1
107.0
111.7
100.3

103.2
104.9
101.1
109.2
108.4
98.1

92.8
81.6
96.1
95.5
117.3

86.5
79.8
94.3
93.2
115.6

90.0
85.6
104.7
94.9
116.2

91.2
84.3
100.4
93.8
123.6

96.7
88.7
103.6
95.7
124.9

102.9
92.4
100.4
98.9
114.7

98.9
97.1
97.9
101.5
103.2

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

105.3
102.7
103.8
105.0
99.4

106.6
103.7
100.5
109.5
106.8

108.1
102.9
94.4
114.1
107.4

109.3
107.9
93.7
120.7
113.6

I n fo r m a t io n

F in a n c e a n d i n s u r a n c e
R e a l e s ta te a n d re n ta l
a n d le a s in g

532111
53212

Passenger car rental........................................
Truck, trailer and RV rental and leasing..............
P r o f e s s io n a l, s c ie n t if ic , a n d t e c h n ic a l
s e r v ic e s

Advertising agencies........................................
54181
7211
722
7221
7222
7223
7224

A c c o m o d a tio n a n d fo o d s e r v ic e s

Traveler accommodations..................................
Food services and drinking places.....................
Full-service restaurants.....................................
Limited-service eating places............................
Special food services........................................
Drinking places, alcoholic beverages.................
O th e r s e rv ic e s
( e x c e p t p u b lic a d m i n is t r a t io n )

8111
81211
81221
8123
81292

Automotive repair and maintenance...................
Hair, nail and skin care services.........................
Funeral homes and funeral services..................
Drycleaning and laundry services.......................
Photofinishing..................................................

NOTE: Data reflect the conversion to the North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), replacing the Standard Industrial Classification (SIC) system. NAiCS-based data by
industry are not comparable to the Sic-based data.

170

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Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

47.

Unemployment rates, approximating U.S. concepts, in nine countries, quarterly data
seasonally adjusted
A n n u a l a v e ra g e

C o u n try

2001

2002

2001
I

II

2002
III

IV

1

United States.......

4.8

5.8

4.2

4.5

4.8

5.6

Canada...............
Australia.............
Jaoan1................
France1...............
Germany1...........

6.4
6.7
5.1
8.5

7.0
6.3
5.4
8.8

6.2
6.5
4.8
8.5

6.3
6.8
4.9
8.4

6.5
6.8
5.2
8.5

8.0
9.6
5.0
5.1

8.4
9.1
5.2
5.2

7.9
10.0
5.1
5.1

8.0
9.7
5.0
5.0

8.0
9.5
5.0
5.1

Italy2...................
Sweden1.............
-U n ite d Kingdom1..

1 Preliminary for 2002 for Japan, France, Germany, Sweden,
and the United Kingdom.
2 Quarterly rates are for the first month of the quarter.
NOTE: Quarterly figures for France and Germany are
calculated by applying annual adjustment factors to current
published data, and therefore should be viewed as less precise
indicators of unemployment under U.S. concepts than the annual
figures.

II

III

IV

5.9

5.7

5.9

6.8
6.8
5.5
8.6

5.6
7.1
6.6
5.3
8.7

6.9
6.3
5.4
8.7

7.0
6.2
5.5
8.9

6.9
6.1
5.5
8.9

8.1
9.4
5.1
5.2

8.2
9.2
5.0
5.1

8.4
9.1
5.0
5.2

8.5
9.1
5.2
5.3

8.6
9.0
5.4
5.1

See "Notes on the data" for Information on breaks in series. For
further qualifications and historical data, see Comparative Civilian
Labor Force Statistics, Ten Countries, 1959-2002 (Bureau of
Labor Statistics, Apr. 14, 2003), on the Internet at
http://www.bls.gov/fls/home.htm

Monthly and quarterly unemployment rates, updated monthly, are

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

171

:urrent Labor Statistics:

48.

International Comparison

A n n u a l d a t a : E m p lo y m e n t statu s o f th e w o r k i n g - a g e p o p u la tio n , a p p r o x im a t in g U.S. c o n c e p t s , 10 c o u n trie s

[Numbers in thousands]
E m p lo y m e n t s t a t u s a n d c o u n tr y

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

128.105
14.177
8.557
65,040

131.056
14.400
8,771
65,780
24.670
39,070
22,450
7.150
4.418
27,990

132.304
14.517
8.995
65,990

133,943
14.669
9.115
66,450

136.297
14.958
9.204
67,200

25.000
39,140
22,570
7.390
4,459
28,140

25.130
39,420
22,680
7,530
4.418
28,270

139.368
15.536
9.466
67,090
25.800
39,800
23,130
7.830
4.430
28,610

26.050
39,750
23,340
8.130
4.489
28,780

143.734
16.027
9.817
66,870
26.340
39,780
23,540
8.290
4.530
28,870

144.863
16.475
9.964
66,240

24.750
38,980
22,460
7.200
4.460
28,040

137.673
15,237
9.339
67,240
25.440
39,750
22,960
7.610
4.402
28,380

142.583
15.789
9.678
66,990

24.440
39,010
22,910
6.920
4.520
28,410

129.200
14.308
8.613
65,470
24.480
39,100
22,570
7.020
4.443
28,050

66.4
65.9
63.9
63.4
55.6
58.2
47.5
57.5
65.7
63.1

66.3
65.5
63.5
63.3
55.4
57.7
47.9
58.0
64.5
62.5

66.6
65.2
63.9
63.1
55.5
57.4
47.3
58.6
63.7
62.3

66.6
64.9
64.6
62.9
55.4
57.1
47.1
58.7
64.1
62.3

66.8
64.7
64.6
63.0
55.6
57.1
47.1
60.0
64.0
62.3

67.1
65.0
64.3
63.2
55.5
57.3
47.2
60.8
63.3
62.4

67.1
65.4
64.3
62.8
55.9
57.7
47.6
61.0
62.8
62.5

67.1
65.8
64.2
62.4
56.3
57.6
47.8
62.4
62.8
62.7

67.1
65.9
64.7
62.0
56.5
57.4
48.1
64.4
63.8
62.8

66.8
66.0
64.7
61.6
56.8
57.2
48.3
65.4
63.7
62.7

66.6
66.8
64.7
60.8

120.259
12.770
7.699
63,810
21.710
35,990
20,270
6.570
4.028
25,120

123.060
13.027
7.942
63,860
21.750
35,760
19,940
6.660
3.992
25,320

124.900
13.271
8,256
63,890
21,950
35,780
19,820
6.730
4.056
25,600

126.708
13.380
8.364
64,200
22.040
35,640
19,920
6.950
4.019
25,850

129.558
13.705
8.444
64,900
22.170
35,510
19,990
7.160
3.973
26,290

133.488
14.456
8.808
63,920
23.070
36,360
20,460
7.580
4.117
26,890

136.891
14,827
9.068
63,790
23.670
36,540
20,840
7.900
4.229
27,200

Civilian labor force
United States............................................................................
Canada.......................................................................................

Australia................................................................
Japan...........................................................................................
France.........................................................................................
Germ any....................................................................................

Netherlands...............................................................................
Sweden.......................................................................................
United Kingdom........................................................................

_
-

23,750
_

4.542
-

Participation rate1
United States............................................................................
Canada.......................................................................................
Australia.....................................................................................
Japan...........................................................................................
France.........................................................................................
Germ any....................................................................................

Netherlands...............................................................................
Sweden......................................................................................
United Kinadom........................................................................

-

48.6
-

63.6
-

Em ployed
United States.............................................................................
Canada.......................................................................................
Australia......................................................................................
Japan...........................................................................................
France.........................................................................................
Germ any....................................................................................

Netherlands...............................................................................
Sweden.......................................................................................
United Kingdom........................................................................

118.492
12.672
7.660
63,620
22.000
36,390
21,230
6.550
4.265
25,530

131.463
14,068
8.618
64,450
22,580
36,060
20,210
7,310
4.034
26,600

136.933
14.997
9.157
63,470
24.100
36,590
21,270
8.090
4.303
27,400

136.485
15.325
9.334
62,650
-

21,580
_

4.308
-

E m ploym ent-population ratio2

61.5
58.9
57.2
62.0
50.1
54.2
44.0
54.5
62.0
56.7

United States.............................................................................
Canada.......................................................................................
Australia......................................................................................
Japan...........................................................................................
France........................................................................................
Germ any....................................................................................
Italy..............................................................................................
Netherlands...............................................................................
Sweden.......................................................................................
United Kinadom........................................................................

61.7
58.5
56.8
61.7
49.1
53.2
43.0
54.2
58.5
56.0

62.5
59.0
57.8
61.3
49.0
52.6
42.0
54.6
57.6
56.4

62.9
59.4
59.2
60.9
49.1
52.4
41.5
54.9
58.3
56.9

63.2
59.1
59.3
60.9
49.0
52.0
41.6
56.4
57.7
57.3

8.940
1.539
914
1,660
2.770
3,110
2,300
440
415
2,930

7.996
1.373
829
1,920
2.920
3,320
2,510
490
426
2,670

7.404
1.246
739
2,100
2.800
3,200
2,640
480
404
2,440

7.236
1.289
751
2,250
2.970
3,510
2,650
440
440
2,290

63.8
59.7
59.0
61.0
49.0
51.6
41.6
57.8
56.9
58.1

64.1
60.4
59.3
60.2
49.6
52.3
41.9
58.6
57.6
58.6

64.3
61.3
59.8
59.4
50.4
52.6
42.3
60.4
58.4
59.0

64.4
62.1
60.6
59.0
51.4
52.7
42.9
62.6
60.1
59.4

63.7
61.9
60.4
58.4
51.9
52.6
43.6
63.9
60.5
59.5

62.7
62.4
60.6
57.5
_
-

44.1
_

60.3
-

U nem ployed
United States.............................................................................
Canada.......................................................................................
Australia.....................................................................................
Japan..........................................................................................
France........................................................................................
Germ any....................................................................................

Netherlands...............................................................................
Sweden.......................................................................................
United Kingdom........................................................................

9.613
1.505
897
1,420
2.430
2,620
1,680
370
255
2,880

6.739
1.252
760
2,300
2.960
3,910
2,690
370
445
1,980

6.210
1.169
721
2,790
2.870
3,690
2,750
300
368
1,780

5.880
1.080
658
3,170
2.730
3,440
2,670
250
313
1,720

5.692
962
611
3,200
2.380
3,210
2,500
220
260
1,580

6.801
1.031
661
3,400
2.240
3,190
2,270
200
227
1,470

8.378
1.150
629
3,590
_
-

2,160
_

234
-

Unem ploym ent rate
United States............................................................................
Canada.......................................................................................
Australia.....................................................................................

Japan...........................................................................................
France.........................................................................................
Germ any....................................................................................

Netherlands...............................................................................
Sweden......................................................................................
United Kingdom........................................................................

7.5
10.6
10.5
2.2
9.9
6.7
7.3
5.3
5.6
10.1

6.9
10.8
10.6
2.5
11.3
8.0
10.2
6.3
9.3
10.4

6.1
9.5
9.4
2.9
11.8
8.5
11.2
6.9
9.6
9.5

5.6
8.6
8.2
3.2
11.3
8.2
11.8
6.7
9.1
8.7

5.4
8.8
8.2
3.4
11.9
9.0
11.7
6.0
9.9
8.1

4.9
8.4
8.3
3.4
11.8
9.9
11.9
4.9
10.1
7.0

4.5
7.7
7.7
4.1
11.3
9.3
12.0
3.9
8.4
6.3

4.2
7.0
7.0
4.7
10.6
8.6
11.5
3.2
7.1
6.0

4.0
6.1
6.3
4.8
9.1
8.1
10.7
2.7
5.8
5.5

1 Labor force as a percent of the working-age population.
2 Employment as a percent of the working-age population.

For further qualifications and historical data, see Comparative Civilian Labor Force
Statistics, Ten Countries, 1959-2001 (Bureau of Labor Statistics, Apr. 14, 2003),
on the Internet at http://www.bls.gov/fls/home.htm

NOTE: See notes on the data for information on breaks in series.

Dash inc|icates data are not available.

172

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February 2004

4.7
6.4
6.7
5.1
8.5
8.0
9.6
2.4
5.0
5.1

5.8
7.0
6.3
5.4
8.8
8.4
9.1

_

5.2
5.2

4 9 . A n n u a l in d e x e s of m a n u fa c tu rin g p ro d u c tiv ity a n d r e la te d m easu re s, 12 co un tries

[1992 = 100]
ite m a n d c o u n try

1 96 0

197 0

1 98 0

1 99 0

1991

1 99 3

1994

1 99 5

1 99 6

1 99 7

1998

1 99 9

2000

2001

2002

Output per hour
United States..............................................................
Canada........................................................................
Japan...........................................................................
Denmark......................................................................
France..........................................................................
Germany.....................................................................
Italy..............................................................................
Netherlands.................................................................
Norway.........................................................................
Sweden........................................................................
United Kingdom.........................................................

70.5
72.9
63 2

96 9
93.4

97 9

11° 7
116.1

1^1 g

37.8
13.8
18.0
29.9
22.0
29.2
23.6
18.5
37.4
27.3
30.0

54.9
37 5
32 9
52.7
43.1
52.0
44.3
37.9
58.8
52.2
43.2

90.4
66.8
77.2
74.2
68.8
77.5
73.1
54.3

99.1
93.8
99.0
95.8
98.5
97.6
94.6
89.2

99.4
97.0
98.3
95.9
99.6
98.2
95.5
93.8

100.8
100.6
101.8
101.4
101.6
99.6
107.3
103.9

108.2
109.5
104.9
113.1
99.6
117.8
108.4

113.8
112.3
108.0
117.5
100.7
124.5
106.4

114.5
114.7
108.1
119.3
102.5
129.5
105.6

121.8
120.4
109.9
121.4
102.0
141.0
107.0

127.8
122.0
110.0
124.1
99.9
149.5
108.6

133.0
121.3
109.7
127.0
103.6
162.7
113.4

143.4
126.7
112.7
132.7
106.6
181.0
120.1

149.3
128.4
114.6
132.3
108.9
182.6
123.2

153.3
131.4
113.0
133.1
110.9
196.5
123.7

33.4
10.7
30.7
40.8
31.0
41.5
23.0
31.5
57.4
45.9
67.3

58.9
39.2
57.6
68.0
64.1
70.9
48.1
59.1
90.6
80.7
90.2

75.8
83.6
60.4
78.2
91.4
88.7
85.3
84.4
76.8
104.4
90.7
87.2

101.6
106.0
97.1
101.0
102.8
99.1
99.1
99.4
99.9
100.9
110.1
105.4

98.3
99.0
102.0
100.7
101.5
99.8
102.3
99.3
100.4
99.0
104.1
100.0

103.5
105.9
96.3
97.0
95.6
95.7
92.4
96.5
98.4
101.7
101.9
101.4

111.1
114.1
94.9
101.4
105.6
100.3
95.1
102.4
104.5
104.6
117.0
106.1

118.4
119.6
98.9
104.2
111.6
104.9
95.2
107.2
108.2
107.3
131.9
107.8

121.3
119.6
103.0
106.7
106.7
104.6
92.5
105.4
108.9
110.3
136.4
108.5

127.9
127.7
106.5
114.0
115.2
109.7
95.7
108.8
111.6
114.2
146.5
109.9

133.1
132.8
100.2
116.5
115.7
115.0
97.7
110.7
114.9
113.7
158.3
110.8

139.5
141.0
101.9
117.3
117.7
118.7
95.7
110.3
117.6
113.6
172.5
111.1

146.1
148.8
109.2
122.0
122.1
124.1
99.8
113.7
122.8
112.8
191.1
113.4

137.3
143.9
103.9
122.3
127.5
128.0
100.4
114.6
121.7
113.4
188.2
110.7

135.9
147.6
102.3
122.9
128.0
128.1
100.0
113.8
119.7
112.6
193.7
106.3

92.1
88.3
77.8
170.7
136.5
140.8
142.3
97.6
170.5
153.6
168.3
224.6

104.4
107.1
104.4
174.7
129.0
148.5
136.3
108.5
156.1
153.9
154.7
208.8

107.5
114.6
95.6
119.7
101.1
132.9
110.5
113.8
111.7
134.7
124.0
160.5

104.8
113.5
102.9
104.3
103.7
105.6
100.1
103.7
101.4
103.4
116.4
118.1

100.4
103.9
103.1
101.5
102.1
102.9
104.1
103.6
100.9
100.8
109.0
106.6

101.4
100.1
94.7
94.7
94.8
95.1
90.8
95.2
96.8
102.1
94.9
97.6

103.6
103.0
91.9
93.6

104.0
106.4
89.1
92.0

103.6
109.0
88.7
91.0

105.4
112.4
88.0
89.7

105.2
117.5
82.7
90.0

104.4
121.5
80.4
91.0

102.8
125.6
80.3
91.6

96.3
123.9
77.7
90.7

89.5
125.2
72.7
85.7

14.9
10.0
4.3
5.4
4.6
4.3
8.1
1.8
6.4
4.7
4.1
3.0

23.7
17.1
16.4
13.7
13.3
10.4
20.7
5.3
20.2
11.8
10.7
6.1

55.6
47.6
58.5
52.5
49.6
40.9
53.6
30.4
64.4
39.0
37.3
32.1

90.8
88.3
90.5
90.1
92.7
90.9
89.4
87.6
90.9
92.3
87.8
82.9

95.6
95.0
96.4
97.3
95.9
96.4
91.5
94.2
95.3
97.5
95.5
93.8

102.7
102.0
102.8
104.8
104.6
102.6
106.4
105.7
103.8
101.5
97.4
104.6

_

_

_

106.0
111.8
106.8
109.0
104.4
99.8
108.0

110.0
117.6
111.3
112.1
109.2
106.8
109.4

112.1
123.3
119.0
114.4
113.6
115.2
111.4

112.0
125.7
123.0
117.2
118.7
121.0
115.7

112.6
127.6
122.2
122.0
125.7
125.6
122.6

26.4
31.3
30.1
15.4
19.4
27.8
7.5
34.6
12.7
15.0
9.8

31.1
43.8
41.7
25.2
24.0
39.8
11.9
53.3
20.1
20.6
14.1

78.8
65.2
92.5
80.3
54.9
61.3
69.4
41.0
93.7
50.3
51.0
59.0

93.7
94.6
95.9
93.0
93.5
96.9
90.3
91.5
92.3
94.6
92.9
92.9

97.6
99.6
97.4
98.1
96.5
99.3
93.1
98.2
95.6
99.2
100.0
100.1

100.6
96.4
101.1
102.3
103.7
101.9
104.5
104.3
102.1
101.9
90.8
100.8

98.5
93.6
101.4
97.9
96.2
97.9
102.0
101.9
96.4
104.8
84.7
99.6

94.8
94.3
97.6
96.4
96.4
96.7
104.7
103.0
95.6
108.4
85.8
102.8

93.5
97.5
94.0
94.7
103.2
97.9
107.5
110.0
95.0
110.8
89.0
105.5

91.9
96.2
93.0
90.7
99.4
91.9
104.5
111.9
96.5
116.4
85.8
108.2

32.9
11.0
19.4
13.4
21.0
10.4
15.0
16.1
11.1
16.9
15.6

36.0
15.5
27.0
20.2
23.0
17.1
23.3
25.9
17.5
23.1
19.1

78.8
67.4
51.8
88.3
58.8
76.8
59.6
59.0
82.9
63.3
70.2
77.7

93.7
98.0
83.8
89.5
91.2
94.1
87.3
94.1
89.1
94.0
91.3
93.9

97.6
105.1
91.7
92.3
91.0
93.1
87.5
97.5
89.9
95.0
96.3
100.1

100.6
90.3
115.4
95.1
96.5
95.2
98.7
81.6
96.6
89.2
67.8
85.6

98.5
82.8
125.8
94.2
91.4
93.4
98.2
77.9
93.2
92.3
64.0
86.4

94.8
83.0
131.6
105.2
104.0
102.6
114.2
77.9
104.8
106.4
70.0
91.9

93.5
86.4
109.5
98.3
107.5
101.3
111.6
87.9
100.0
106.6
77.3
93.2

91.9
84.0
97.4
81.4
90.8
83.3
94.0
80.9
87.0
102.1
65.4
100.3

95.3

105.8

110.8

112.4

109.7
116.1

113.5

113.1

116.0

96 6

118.4
133 ^

117.9
143.4

_

Output
United States..............................................................
Canada.........................................................................
Japan...........................................................................
Belgium........................................................................
Denmark.......................................................................
France..........................................................................
Germany......................................................................
Italy................................................................................
Netherlands.................................................................
Norway.........................................................................
Sweden........................................................................
United Kingdom..........................................................
Total hours
United States...............................................................
Canada.........................................................................
Japan............................................................................
Belgium........................................................................
Denmark.......................................................................
France..........................................................................
Germany.......................................................................
Italy................................................................................
Netherlands.................................................................
Norway.........................................................................
Sweden........................................................................ .
United Kingdom..........................................................

-

-

-

_

_

_

_

_

92.7
86.8
97.6
92.4
105.0
99.4
97.9

92.2
84.8
99.3
92.3
106.6
105.9
101.2

91.3
80.6
97.5
91.2
107.6
105.3
102.8

90.1
79.5
99.0
91.9
112.0
103.9
102.8

90.0
80.1
100.6
92.6
113.7
105.9
102.0

89.2
78.9
100.5
92.6
109.6
106.0
98.0

86.7
78.8
100.8
92.5
105.9
105.6
94.4

85.8
78.2
100.0
91.9
104.1
103.1
89.8

83.6
76.1
100.7
89.9
101.6
98.6
85.9

105.6
103.7
104.7
106.1

107.9
106.0
108.3
109.2

109.4
107.0
109.1
111.0

111.5
109.3
112.6
115.2

117.4
110.5
115.4
116.9

122.1
112.3
114.8
118.4

131.1
113.9
113.7
120.5

134.3
117.8
114.5
126.7

141.0
123.2
112.7
135.0

116.4
130.6
124.2
126.0
133.0
130.3
129.7

120.8
137.2
127.8
132.0
140.5
135.3
137.6

126.9
141.4
132.4
138.9
148.2
139.8
143.8

130.9
144.5
135.6
146.0
157.2
145.1
148.6

92.8
97.7
95.2
90.4
102.8
88.1
104.6
111.1
98.3
125.7
84.0
112.8

91.3
96.8
90.6
91.9
103.7
87.5
107.6
113.2
99.1
128.4
80.1
114.4

92.3
96.1
83.6
90.4
102.5
84.3
108.3
113.4
99.5
131.9
74.7
114.5

94.1
101.5
85.6
93.9
101.4
85.0
110.1
115.5
105.0
136.1
76.6
116.7

92.6
104.6
80.1
94.1
101.8
85.4
110.0
120.1
109.7
141.8
73.8
120.1

92.8
79.6
92.2
80.0
92.6
79.1
92.9
78.8
87.2
103.5
61.5
105.9

91.3
78.8
101.0
78.0
89.5
75.2
91.6
76.7
84.3
102.2
56.4
104.7

92.3
78.2
98.4
66.5
76.5
62.8
79.8
66.6
73.3
93.0
47.5
98.3

94.1
79.2
89.3
67.0
73.4
61.4
78.7
65.8
75.0
94.0
43.1
95.1

92.8
80.5
81.1
70.9
77.9
65.1
83.0
72.2
82.8
110.3
44.2
102.1

-

Compensation per hour
United States..............................................................
Canada.........................................................................
Japan............................................................................
Belgium.........................................................................
Denmark.......................................................................
France..........................................................................
Germany.......................................................................
Italy................................................................................
Netherlands.................................................................
Norway.........................................................................
Sweden........................................................................
United Kingdom..........................................................

-

-

-

_

_

_

Unit labor costs: National currency basis
United States...............................................................
Canada.........................................................................
Japan............................................................................
Belgium.........................................................................
Denmark.......................................................................
France..........................................................................
Germany.......................................................................
Italy...............................................................................
Netherlands.................................................................
Norway.........................................................................
Sweden.........................................................................
United Kingdom..........................................................

-

Unit labor costs: U.S. dollar basis
United States...............................................................
Canada.........................................................................
Japan............................................................................
Belgium.........................................................................
Denmark.......................................................................
France..........................................................................
Germany.......................................................................
Italy................................................................................
Netherlands.................................................................
Norway.........................................................................
Sweden.........................................................................
United Kingdom..........................................................

NOTE: Data for Germany for years before 1991 are for the former West Germany. Data for 1991 onward are for unified Germany. Dash indicates data not available.


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Monthly Labor Review

February 2004

173

Current Labor Statistics:

50.

Injury and Illness

Occupational injury and illness rates by industry,1 United States
Incidence rates per 100 full-time workers3
Industry and type of case

19891

1990

1991

1992

1993 4 1994 4 1995 4 1996 4 1997 4 1998 4 1999 4 2000 4 2001 4

PRIVATE SECTOR5

Total cases.......................................................................
Lost workday cases.............................................................
Lost workdays.....................................................................

8.6
4.0
78.7

8.8
4.1
84.0

8.4
3.9
86.5

8.9
3.9
93.8

8.5
3.8
-

8.4
3.8
-

8.1
3.6
-

7.4
3.4
-

7.1
3.3
-

6.7
3.1
-

6.3
3.0
-

6.1
3.0
-

5.7
2.8
-

10.9
5.7
100.9

11.6
5.9
112.2

10.8
5.4
108.3

11.6
5.4
126.9

11.2
5.0
-

10.0
4.7
-

9.7
4.3
-

8.7
3.9
-

8.4
4.1
-

7.9
3.9
-

7.3
3.4
-

7.1
3.6
-

7.3
3.6
-

8.5
4.8
137.2

8.3
5.0
119.5

7.4
4.5
129.6

7.3
4.1
204.7

6.8
3.9
-

6.3
3.9
-

6.2
3.9
-

5.4
3.2
-

5.9
3.7
-

4.9
2.9
-

4.4
2.7
-

4.7
3.0
_

4.0
2.4
_

14.3
6.8
143.3

14.2
6.7
147.9

13.0
6.1
148.1

13.1
5.8
161.9

12.2
5.5
-

11.8
5.5
-

10.6
4.9
-

9.9
4.5
-

9.5
4.4
-

8.8
4.0
_

8.6
4.2
_

8.3
4.1
-

7.9
4.0
_

13.9
6.5
137.3

13.4
6.4
137.6

12.0
5.5
132.0

12.2
5.4
142.7

11.5
5.1
-

10.9
5.1
-

9.8
4.4
-

9.0
4.0
-

8.5
3.7
-

8.4
3.9
-

8.0
3.7
_

7.8
3.9
-

6.9
3.5
_

13.8
6.5
147.1

13.8
6.3
144.6

12.8
6.0
160.1

12.1
5.4
165.8

11.1
5.1
-

10.2
5.0
-

9.9
4.8
-

9.0
4.3
-

8.7
4.3
-

8.2
4.1
-

7.8
3.8
-

7.6
3.7
_

7.8
4.0
_

14.6
6.9
144.9

14.7
6.9
153.1

13.5
6.3
151.3

13.8
6.1
168.3

12.8
5.8
-

12.5
5.8
-

11.1
5.0
-

10.4
4.8
-

10.0
4.7
-

9.1
4.1
-

8.9
4.4
-

8.6
4.3
-

8.2
4.1
-

13.1
5.8
113.0

13.2
5.8
120.7

12.7
5.6
121.5

12.5
5.4
124.6

12.1
5.3
-

12.2
5.5
-

11.6
5.3
-

10.6
4.9
-

10.3
4.8
-

9.7
4.7
-

9.2
4.6
-

9.0
4.5
_

8.1
4.1
_

14.1
6.0
116.5

14.2
6.0
123.3

13.6
5.7
122.9

13.4
5.5
126.7

13.1
5.4
-

13.5
5.7
-

12.8
5.6
-

11.6
5.1
-

11.3
5.1
-

10.7
5.0
-

10.1
4.8
-

_
-

8.8
4.3
_

18.4
9.4
177.5

18.1
8.8
172.5

16.8
8.3
172.0

16.3
7.6
165.8

15.9
7.6
-

15.7
7.7

14.9
7.0
-

14.2
6.8
-

13.5
6.5
-

13.2
6.8
-

13.0
6.7
-

12.1
6.1
-

10.6
5.5
-

16.1
7.2
-

16.9
7.8
-

15.9
7.2
-

14.8
6.6
128.4

14.6
6.5
-

15.0
7.0
-

13.9
6.4
-

12.2
5.4
-

12.0
5.8
-

11.4
5.7
-

11.5
5.9
-

11.2
5.9
-

11.0
5.7
_

15.5
7.4
149.8

15.4
7.3
160.5

14.8
6.8
156.0

13.6
6.1
152.2

13.8
6.3
-

13.2
6.5
-

12.3
5.7
-

12.4
6.0
-

11.8
5.7
-

11.8
6.0
-

10.7
5.4
-

10.4
5.5
_

10.1
5.1

18.7
8.1
168.3

19.0
8.1
180.2

17.7
7.4
169.1

17.5
7.1
175.5

17.0
7.3
-

16.8
7.2
-

16.5
7.2
-

15.0
6.8
-

15.0
7.2
-

14.0
7.0
_

12.9
6.3
-

12.6
6.3
_

10.7
5.3
11.1

18.5
7.9
147.6

18.7
7.9
155.7

17.4
7.1
146.6

16.8
6.6
144.0

16.2
6.7
-

16.4
6.7
-

15.8
6.9
-

14.4
6.2
-

14.2
6.4
-

13.9
6.5
-

12.6
6.0
-

11.9
5.5
-

11.1
5.3
-

12.1
4.8
86.8

12.0
4.7
88.9

11.2
4.4
86.6

11.1
4.2
87.7

11.1
4.2
-

11.6
4.4
-

11.2
4.4
-

9.9
4.0
-

10.0
4.1
-

9.5
4.0
-

8.5
3.7
-

8.2
3.6
-

11.0
6.0
_

9.1
3.9
77.5

9.1
3.8
79.4

8.6
3.7
83.0

8.4
3.6
81.2

8.3
3.5
-

8.3
3.6
-

7.6
3.3
-

6.8
3.1

6.6
3.1
-

5.9
2.8
-

5.7
2.8
_

5.7
2.9
-

5.0
2.5
_

17.7
6.8
138.6

17.8
6.9
153.7

18.3
7.0
166.1

18.7
7.1
186.6

18.5
7.1
-

19.6
7.8

18.6
7.9
-

16.3
7.0

15.4
6.6

14.6
6.6
_

13.7
6.4
_

13.7
6.3

12.6
6.0
_

5.6
2.5
55.4

5.9
2.7
57.8

6.0
2.7
64.4

5.9
2.7
65.3

5.6
2.5
-

5.9
2.7
-

5.3
2.4
-

5.1
2.3
-

4.8
2.3
-

4.0
1.9
-

4.0
1.8
-

4.5
2.2
_

4.0
2.0
-

11.1
5.1
97.6

11.3
5.1
113.1

11.3
5.1
104.0

10.7
5.0
108.2

10.0
4.6
-

9.9
4.5
-

9.1
4.3
-

9.5
4.4
-

8.9
4.2
-

8.1
3.9
-

8.4
4.0
-

7.2
3.6
-

6.4
3.2
-

Agriculture, forestry, and fishing5

Total cases........................................................................
Lost workday cases..............................................................
Lost workdays.....................................................................
Mining

Total cases........................................................................
Lost workday cases..............................................................
Lost workdays.....................................................................
Construction

Total cases........................................................................
Lost workday cases..............................................................
Lost workdays.....................................................................
General building contractors:
Total cases........................................................................
Lost workday cases..............................................................
Lost workdays.....................................................................
Heavy construction, except buildina:
Total cases........................................................................
Lost workday cases..............................................................
Lost workdays.....................................................................
Special trades contractors:
Total cases........................................................................
Lost workday cases..............................................................
Lost workdays......................................................................
Manufacturing

Total cases........................................................................
Lost workday cases..............................................................
Lost workdays.....................................................................
Durable goods:
Total cases........................................................................
Lost workday cases..............................................................
Lost workdays.....................................................................
Lumber and wood products:
Total cases......................................................................
Lost workday cases...........................................................
Lost workdays...................................................................
Furniture and fixtures:
Total cases......................................................................
Lost workday cases...........................................................
Lost workdays...................................................................
Stone, clav. and alass products:
Total cases......................................................................
Lost workday cases...........................................................
Lost workdays...................................................................
Primary metal industries:
Total cases......................................................................
Lost workday cases...........................................................
Lost workdays...................................................................
Fabricated metal products:
Total cases......................................................................
Lost workday cases...........................................................
Lost workdays...................................................................
Industrial machinery and equipment:
Total cases......................................................................
Lost workday cases...........................................................
Lost workdays...................................................................
Electronic and other electrical eauipment:
Total cases......................................................................
Lost workday cases...........................................................
Lost workdays...................................................................
Transportation eauipment:
Total cases......................................................................
Lost workday cases...........................................................
Lost workdays...................................................................
Instruments and related products:
Total cases......................................................................
Lost workday cases...........................................................
Lost workdays...................................................................
Miscellaneous manufacturina Industries:
Total cases......................................................................
Lost workday cases...........................................................
Lost workdays...................................................................
See footnotes at end of table.

174

Monthly Labor Review


https://fraser.stlouisfed.org
Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

February 2004

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

50. Continued—Occupational injury and illness rates by industry,1United States
Incidence rates per 100 workers8
Industry and type of case

1989 1

1990

1991

1992

19934 1994 4 1995 4 1996 4 1997 4

1998 4

1999 4

8.2
4.3

7.8
4.2

20004 2001 4

Nondurable goods:

11.6
5.5
107.8

11.7
5.6
116.9

11.5
5.5
119.7

11.3
5.3
121.8

10.7
5.0

Total c ases........................................................................................
Lost workday cases..............................................................
Lost workdays..............................................................................

18.5
9.3
174.7

20.0
9.9
202.6

19.5
9.9
207.2

18.8
9.5
211.9

Tobacco Droducts:
Total c ases........................................................................................
Lost workday cases...........................................................................
Lost workdays.......................................................................

8.7
3.4
64.2

7.7
3.2
62.3

6.4
2.8
52.0

Textile mill Droducts:
Total c ases........................................................................................
Lost workday cases..........................................................................
Lost workdays....................................................................................

10.3
4.2
81.4

9.6
4.0
85.1

AoDarel and other textile Droducts:
Total cas es ........................................................................................
Lost workday cases..........................................................................
Lost workdays....................................................................................

8.6
3.8
80.5

PaDer and allied products:
Total c ases.................................................................................
Lost workday cases...........................................................................
Lost workdays....................................................................................

Total cases............................................................................................
Lost workday cases.......................................................................
Lost workdays........................................................................................

10.5
5.1
-

9.9
4.9

9.2
4.6

-

-

17.6
8.9

17.1
9.2

16.3
8.7

15.0
8.0

14.5
8.0

13.6
7.5

12.7
7.3

12.4
7.3

10.9
6.3

6.0
2.4
42.9

5.8
2.3

5.3
2.4

5.6
2.6

6.7
2.8

5.9
2.7

6.4
3.4

5.5
2.2

6.2
3.1

6.7
4.2

10.1
4.4
88.3

9.9
4.2
87.1

9.7
4.1
-

8.7
4.0
-

8.2
4.1
-

7.8
3.6
-

6.7
3.1
-

7.4
3.4

6.4
3.2

6.0
3.2

5.2
2.7

_

_

8.8
3.9
92.1

9.2
4.2
99.9

9.5
4.0
104.6

9.0
3.8

8.9
3.9

8.2
3.6

7.4
3.3

7.0
3.1

6.2
2.6

5.8
2.8

6.1
3.0

5.0
2.4

12.7
5.8
132.9

12.1
5.5
124.8

11.2
5.0
122.7

11.0
5.0
125.9

9.9
4.6
-

9.6
4.5
-

8.5
4.2
-

7.9
3.8

7.3
3.7

7.1
3.7

7.0
3.7

6.5
3.4

6.0
3.2

_

_

Printing and Dublishina:
Total cases......................................................................................
Lost workday cases...........................................................................
Lost workdays....................................................................................

6.9
3.3
63.8

6.9
3.3
69.8

6.7
3.2
74.5

7.3
3.2
74.8

6.9
3.1

6.7
3.0

6.0
2.8
-

5.4
2.8

5.0
2.6

5.1
2.6

4.6
2.4

-

6.4
3.0
-

5.7
2.7

-

_

_

Chemicals and allied Droducts:
Total c ases........................................................................................
Lost workday cases....................................................................
Lost workdays....................................................................................

7.0
3.2
63.4

6.5
3.1
61.6

6.4

6.0

5.9
2.7

5.7
2.8

5.5
2.7

4.8
2.4

4.8

4.2

4.4

4.2
_

62.4

64.2

4.0
2.1

Petroleum and coal products:
Total c ases.........................................................................................
Lost workday cases .........................................................
Lost workdays ...............................................................

6.6
3.3
68.1

6.6
3.1
77.3

6.2
2.9
68.2

5.9
2.8
71.2

5.2
2.5
-

4.7
2.3
-

4.8
2.4
-

4.6
2.5
-

4.3
2.2
_

3.9
1.8
_

4.1
1.8
-

3.7
1.9

2.9
1.4

Rubber and miscellaneous elastics Droducts:
Total c ases ...................................................................
Lost workday cases .........................................................
Lost workdays...............................................................

16.2
8.0
147.2

16.2
7.8
151.3

15.1
7.2
150.9

14.5
6.8
153.3

13.9
6.5

14.0
6.7

12.9
6.5

12.3
6.3

11.9
5.8

11.2
5.8

10.1
5.5

10.7
5.8

8.7
4.8

Leather and leather Droducts:
Total c ases ..................................................................
Lost workday cases ........................................................
Lost workdays................................................................

13.6
65
130.4

12.1
5-9
152.3

12.5

12.1

12.1

12.0

11.4

10.7

10.6

9.8

10.3

9.0
a^

140.8

128.5

8.7
4.4

9.2
53
121.5

9.6

9.3

9.1

9.5

9.3

9.1

8.7

8.2

7.3

7.3

6.9
-0

6.9
. _

134.1

140.0

144.0

_

_

Total c ases .....................................................................
Lost workday cases ...........................................................
Lost workdays..................................................................

8.0
3.6
63.5

7.9
3.5
65.6

7.6
3.4
72.0

8.4
3.5
80.1

8.1
3.4
-

7.9
3.4
-

7.5
3.2
-

6.8
2.9
-

6.7
3.0
-

6.5
2.8

6.1
2.7

5.9
2.7

6.6
2.5

_

_

Wholesale trade:
Total c ases .....................................................................
Lost workday cases ...........................................................
Lost workdays...................................................................

7.7
4.0
71.9

7.4
3.7
71.5

7.2
3.7
79.2

7.6
3.6
82.4

7.8
3.7
-

7.7
3.8
-

7.5
3.6
-

6.6
3.4
-

6.5
3.2

6.5
3.3

6.3
3.3

5.8
3.1

5.3
2.8

_

_

_

Retail trade:
Total c ases............................................................................................
Lost workday cases...............................................................................
Lost workdays.........................................................................................

8.1
3.4
60.0

8.1
3.4
63.2

7.7
3.3
69.1

8.7
3.4
79.2

8.2
3.3
-

7.9
3.3

7.5
3.0

6.9
2.8

6.8
2.9

6.5
2.7

6.1
2.5

5.9
2.5

5.7
2.4

-

-

-

-

_

2.0
.9
17.6

2.4
1.1
27.3

2.4
1.1
24.1

2.9
1.2
32.9

2.9
1.2

2.7
1.1

2.6
1.0

2.4
.9

2.2
.9

1.9
.8

1.8
.7

-

-

-

-

.7
.5
-

1.8
.8

-

5.5
2.7
51.2

6.0
2.8
56.4

6.2
2.8
60.0

7.1
3.0
68.6

6.7
2.8
-

6.5
2.8
-

6.4
2.8
-

6.0
2.6
-

5.6
2.5
-

5.2
2.4
-

4.9
2.2
-

4.9
2.2

4.6
2.2

-

8.8
4.4
_

-

-

7.8
4.2

6.8
3.8

_

Food and kindred products:

-

__

Transportation and public utilities
Total c ases .....................................................................
Lost workday cases .........................................................
Lost workdays................................................................

Wholesale and retail trade

Finance, Insurance, and real estate
Total c ases............................................................................................
Lost workday cases...............................................................................
Lost workdays.......................................................................................

Services
Total c ases............................................................................................
Lost workday cases ...........................................................
Lost workdays...................................................................

for the years 1985-88, which were based on the Standard Industrial Classification
Manual, 1972 Edition, 1977 Supplement.

N = number of injuries and illnesses or lost workdays;
EH = total hours worked by all employees during the calendar year; and
200,000 = base for 100 full-time equivalent workers (working 40 hours per week, 50 weeks
per year).

2 Beginning with the 1992 survey, the annual survey measures only nonfatal injuries and
illnesses, while past surveys covered both fatal and nonfatal incidents. To better address
fatalities, a basic element of workplace safety, BLS implemented the Census of Fatal
Occupational Injuries.

4 Beginning with the 1993 survey, lost workday estimates will not be generated. As of 1992,
BLS began generating percent distributions and the median number of days away from work
by industry and for groups of workers sustaining similar work disabilities.
5 Excludes farms with fewer than 11 employees since 1976.

3 The incidence rates represent the number of injuries and illnesses or lost workdays per
100 full-time workers and were calculated as (N/EH) X 200,000, where:

No t e : Dash indicates data not available.

' Data for 1989 and subsequent years are based on the Standard Industrial Class­
ification Manual, 1987 Edition. For this reason, they are not strictly comparable with data


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175

Current Labor Statistics:

Injury and Illness

51. Fatal occupational injuries by event or exposure, 1997-2002
Fatalities
Event or exposure1

1997-2001

2001 2

average

N um ber

Total............................................................................
Transportation incidents...............................................................

Highway incident.....................................................................
Collision between vehicles, mobile equipment........................
Moving in opposite directions, oncoming.............................
Vehicle struck stationary object or equipment.........................
Noncollision incident.............................................................
Jackknifed or overturned—no collision................................
Nonhighway (farm, industrial premises) incident........................
Overturned...........................................................................
Aircraft...................................................................................
Worker struck by a vehicle.......................................................
Water vehicle.........................................................................
Rail vehicle.............................................................................
Assaults and violent acts..............................................................

Homicides..............................................................................
Shooting.............................................................................
Stabbing.............................................................................
Other, including bombing.....................................................
Self-inflicted injuries.................................................................
Contact with objects and equipment...........................................

Struck by falling object..........................................................
Struck by flying object...........................................................
Caught in or compressed by equipment or objects....................
Caught in running equipment or machinery............................
Caught in or crushed in collapsing materials.............................
Falls..................................................................................................

Fall to lower level....................................................................
Fall from ladder....................................................................
Fall from roof.......................................................................
Fall from scaffold, staging.....................................................
Fall on same level...................................................................
Contact with electric current.....................................................
Contact with overhead power lines........................................
Contact with temperature extremes..........................................
Exposure to caustic, noxious, or allergenic substances.............
Oxygen deficiency...................................................................
Fires and explosions....................................................................
Other events or exposures9..........................................................

1 Based on the 1992 BLS Occupational Injury and Illness

2002
N um ber

Percent

6 036

5 915

5 524

2,593
1,421
697
126
254
148
300
369
300
368
202
248
382
99
68

2,524
1,409
727
142
257
138
297
339
273
326
158
247
383
90
62

2,381
1,372
635
155
202
145
326
373
312
322
164
192
356
71
64

43
25
11
3
4
3
6
7
6
6
3
3
6
1

964
709
567
64
78
221

908
643
509
58
76
230

840
609
469
58
82
199

15
11
8
1
1
4

995
562
352
58
290
156
126

962
553
343
60
266
144
122

873
506
303
38
231
110
116

16
Q
5
1
4
2
2

737
654
in
155
91
61

810
700
123
159
91
84

714
634
126
143
87
63

13
11
2
3
2
1

529
291
134
41
106
52
89
71

499
285
124
35
96
49
83
59

538
289
122
60
98
49
90
60

10
5
2
1
2
1
2
1

197

188

165

3

21

24

13

Totals for 2001 exclude fatalities from the September 11

Classification Structures.

terrorist attacks.

2 The BLS news release issued Sept. 25, 2002, reported a
total of 5,900 fatal work injuries for calendar year 2001. Since
then, an additional 15 job-related fatalities were identified,
bringing the total job-related fatality count for 2001 to 5,915.

4 Includes the category "Bodily reaction and exertion."
NOTE: Totals for major categories may include sub­
categories not shown separately. Percentages may not add
to totals because of rounding. Dash indicates less than 0.5
percent.

176

Monthly Labor Review


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Consumer price indexes
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Projections
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Labor force statistics:
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V

Schedule of release dates fo r BLS statistical series

-

R e le a s e

P e r io d

R e le a s e

P e r io d

R e le a s e

P e r io d

d a te

c o v e re d

d a te

c o v e re d

d a te

c o v e re d

P r o d u c tiv ity a n d c o s ts

February 5

4th quarter

March 4

4th quarter

E m p lo y m e n t s it u a t io n

February 6

January

March 5

February

April 2

March

1;4-24

February 13 January

March 11

February

April 7

March

38-42

P r o d u c e r P r ic e In d e x e s

February 19 January

March 12

February

April 8

March

2; 35-37

C o n s u m e r P r ic e in d e x e s

February 20 January

March 17

February

April 14

March

2; 32-34

R e a l e a r n in g s

February 20 January

March 17

February

April 14

March

14-16, 24

April 29

1st quarter

S e r ie s

U .S . Im p o r t a n d E x p o r t
P r ic e In d e x e s

E m p lo y m e n t C o s t In d e x e s


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num ber

2; 43-46

1-3; 25-28