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FISCAL YEAR 2013

MID-SESSION REVIEW
BUDGET OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT

OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
BUDGET.GOV

FISCAL YEAR 2013

MID-SESSION REVIEW
BUDGET OF THE U.S. GOVERNMENT

OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
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EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
WASHINGTON D. C. 20503

THE DIRECTOR

July 27, 2012
The Honorable John A. Boehner
Speaker of the House of Representatives
Washington, DC 20510
Dear Mr. Speaker:
Section 1106 of Title 31, United States Code, requests that the President send to the
Congress a supplemental update of the Budget that was transmitted to the Congress earlier in the
year. This enclosed supplemental update of the Budget, commonly known as the Mid-Session
Review, contains revised estimates of receipts, outlays, budget authority, and the budget deficit
for fiscal years 2012 through 2022.
Sincerely,

Jeffrey D. Zients
Acting Director

Enclosure

Identical Letter Sent to the President of the Senate

TABLE OF CONTENTS

Page

List of Tables��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� iii
Summary�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������1
Economic Assumptions�������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������7
Receipts�����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������13
Expenditures���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������17
Summary Tables���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������21

i

LIST OF TABLES

Page

Table 1.

Changes in Deficits from the February Budget �����������������������������������������������������������������6

Table 2.

Economic Assumptions �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������9

Table 3.

Comparison of Economic Assumptions ����������������������������������������������������������������������������11

Table 4.

Change in Receipts ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������15

Table 5.

Change in Outlays �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������20

Table S–1.

Budget Totals ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������22

Table S–2.

Effect of Mid-Session Review Proposals on Projected Deficits ���������������������������������������23

Table S–3.

Deficit Reduction since January 2011 ������������������������������������������������������������������������������24

Table S–4.

Adjusted Baseline by Category �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������25

Table S–5.

Proposed Budget by Category �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������27

Table S–6.

Proposed Budget by Category as a Percent of GDP ��������������������������������������������������������29

Table S–7.

Proposed Budget in Population- and Inflation-Adjusted Dollars �����������������������������������31

Table S–8.

Bridge from Budget Enforcement Act Baseline to Adjusted Baseline ����������������������������33

Table S–9.

Change in the Adjusted Baseline from Budget to MSR ��������������������������������������������������34

Table S–10. Mandatory and Receipt Proposals ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������36
Table S–11. Outlays for Mandatory Programs under Current Law ���������������������������������������������������55
Table S–12. Funding Levels for Appropriated (“Discretionary”) Programs by Category ������������������56
Table S–13. Funding Levels for Appropriated (“Discretionary”) Programs by Agency ���������������������57
Table S–14. Federal Government Financing and Debt ������������������������������������������������������������������������60

iii

SUMMARY
This Mid-Session Review (MSR) updates
the Administration’s estimates for outlays,
receipts, and the deficit for economic, legislative, and other changes that have occurred
since the President’s 2013 Budget was released in February. The 2012 deficit is now
projected to be $1,211 billion, $116 billion
lower than the $1,327 billion deficit projected in February, due to lower-than-expected
spending, partially offset by lower-than-expected receipts. As a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP), the deficit is now projected to equal 7.8 percent, down from the 8.5
percent projected in February. Cumulative
deficits for the following 10 years are also
projected to be lower than previously projected, with a total reduction of $240 billion over
the 10-year period. This reduction results
primarily from lower projected spending for
Medicare, Medicaid, Social Security, and net
interest, partially offset by lower projected
receipts.
CREATING JOBS AND
ECONOMIC GROWTH
The Budget released in February reflected
an economy no longer in the free-fall it was
experiencing when the President took office. In the last quarter of 2008, real GDP
was dropping at annual rate of 8.9 percent.
Credit markets that provided access to business capital seized up, and companies began
to lay off workers and cut costs at an unprecedented rate. In January 2009 alone, the
economy lost 839,000 private sector jobs. A
steep decline in the stock market, combined
with falling home prices, led to an enormous
loss of household wealth. Corresponding to
this loss in wealth was a reduction in consumer demand, a key driver of economic
growth. The economy was in the worst downturn since the Great Depression, with significant risk that conditions could worsen. That
is why the President took swift action to
jumpstart economic growth and avoid a second Great Depression by signing into law the
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
(Recovery Act). The Recovery Act provided
critical support to promote economic activity,
mitigate the damaging effects of the recession, and save and create jobs.

The Recovery Act was augmented by several other critical policy interventions. In
March 2010, the President signed the Hiring
Incentive to Restore Employment (HIRE)
Act, which provided subsidies for firms that
hired unemployed workers and provided other incentives. The Small Business Jobs Act,
enacted the following September, provided
tax relief and better access to credit to small
businesses. In December 2010, the President
signed into law the Tax Relief, Unemployment
Insurance Reauthorization and Job Creation
Act (TRUIRJCA), which included a two-percentage point payroll tax holiday and extended emergency unemployment benefits. The
one-year payroll tax holiday and emergency
unemployment benefits in TRUIRJCA were
extended for two months at the end of 2011
and through the remaining 10 months of calendar year 2012 in mid-February, shortly after the President’s Budget was released.
The Recovery Act and these subsequent legislative actions helped put the country on the
path to economic recovery. Since 2009, real
GDP has risen for 11 straight quarters. The
unemployment rate has declined from its peak
of 10.0 percent to 8.2 percent in June 2012
and private sector employment has grown for
28 straight months. Yet despite this progress,
the economy is not growing fast enough and
there are still too many people out of work.
Most troubling, the pace of improvement in
the labor market slowed in the second quarter of this year.
The Nation faces these challenges because
of a number of economic headwinds. First,
economists have found that recessions linked
with financial crises tend to be deeper than
other recessions, and the subsequent recoveries take longer. Our current situation is no
exception. As is common following a financial
crisis in which banks and other credit market
institutions suffer severe losses, many creditworthy borrowers are finding it difficult to
obtain credit, dampening spending and investment. Second, while the housing sector is
seeing some recovery in prices from the bursting of the housing bubble, this critical part of
the economy is taking time to rebound fully.
Third, State and local governments have still
1

2
found it necessary to pursue fiscal consolidation to meet their balanced budget requirements. This fiscal tightening at the State and
local levels has reduced aggregate demand
and has had the effect of slowing overall economic growth.
Finally, economic and financial fragility in
the Euro area remains a significant risk to
the U.S. recovery and to the global economy.
Europe is the U.S.’s largest export market,
so weaker demand in Europe means weaker
job growth at home. European banks are interconnected with financial markets around
the world, so volatility in Europe undermines
sentiment here at home. That is why the
Administration has consulted closely with its
European counterparts throughout the crisis
and has urged European officials to take steps
to reduce immediate financial market stresses, even as they undertake longer-term reform
and integration plans to promote growth, adjustment, and stability.
Because the economic recovery is facing
headwinds and not creating enough jobs, the
President has called for commonsense, targeted, and fiscally responsible measures to boost
economic activity.
In September 2011, the President sent
Congress the American Jobs Act (AJA), a
package of cross-sectoral proposals with a
simple goal: to put more people back to work
and place more money in the pockets of working Americans, without increasing the deficit. The proposal included tax cuts to help
America’s small businesses hire and grow;
tax credits to spur hiring; investments in infrastructure improvements; new pathways
back to work for Americans looking for jobs;
and tax cuts to put more money in the pockets of every American worker and family – all
historically bipartisan ideas that independent
economists estimated would create 1.3 to 1.9
million jobs and boost growth in 2012 by up to
2 percent. Lack of Congressional action has so
far prevented critical components of the AJA
from becoming law.
In February, the President put forward his
2013 Budget proposal. In addition to making
tough choices to put the Nation on a sustainable fiscal path, the President’s Budget included a number of measures from the AJA,
along with other proposals to help boost eco-

MID-SESSION REVIEW

nomic growth and job creation. Specifically,
the President called for $350 billion in shortterm measures for job creation that included
the extension of the payroll tax cut and unemployment insurance benefits for rest of
2012; an upfront investment of $50 billion
from the surface transportation reauthorization bill for roads, rails, and runways to create
thousands of quality jobs in the short term; a
continuation of the business write-off of the
full amount of new investments; $30 billion
to modernize at least 35,000 schools; and $30
billion to help States and localities retain and
hire teachers and first responders.
In June, at the Administration’s urging,
Congress passed a bipartisan bill to stop student loan interest rates from doubling and to
reauthorize surface transportation legislation
that will keep millions of construction workers on the job rebuilding the Nation’s aging
infrastructure. But there is still much more
Congress can do to create jobs and grow the
economy.
That is why the President has called on
Congress to act on a “To Do List” that would
create jobs and help restore middle-class security. The To Do List includes proposals to
reward American jobs and curb tax incentives
to ship jobs overseas; cut red tape so that responsible homeowners can refinance; invest
in a new hire tax credit for small businesses;
create jobs by investing in affordable clean
energy; and put returning veterans to work
using skills developed in the military. These
are all commonsense steps that would help
counter the economic challenges we face, get
more Americans back to work, and strengthen
our economy. With the exception of the shortterm agreement in February 2012 to extend
the payroll tax holiday and emergency unemployment provisions through the end of the
calendar year, Congress has not yet passed
any of these plans to boost economic growth
and create jobs.
BALANCED DEFICIT REDUCTION
Constructing an economy that is built to
last and creates good jobs for generations to
come will require making the investments
in education, infrastructure, innovation, and
clean energy that are critical to a 21st century, high-growth economy. To pay for these
investments, cut persistent deficits, and sta-

SUMMARY

bilize the debt, we need to give everyone a fair
shot and ask everyone to pay their fair share
as we put the Nation’s fiscal house in order.
For too long, Washington has enacted new
tax cuts or spending programs without identifying a way to pay for them. Indeed, the cost of
the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts and the Medicare
prescription drug benefit passed during the
last Administration contributed significantly
to turning the surpluses of the 1990s into the
deficits of the following decade. The financial crisis and recession that began in 2008
exacerbated Federal deficits as revenue decreased and automatic Government outlays
increased to mitigate the impacts of the recession. The result was that, upon taking office,
the President faced an annual deficit of $1.3
trillion, or 9.2 percent of GDP, and a 10-year
deficit of more than $8 trillion — a figure that
grew even larger as the depth of the recession
became clear. While the need to jumpstart the
economy through the Recovery Act and other measures added to the short-term deficit,
these critical measures were temporary and
will not have significant deficit effects in the
longer term.
Since taking office, the President has worked
to restore fiscal responsibility. Recognizing
the role that rising health care costs play
in the Nation’s long-term fiscal future, the
President advocated for, and signed into law,
fiscally responsible health care reform that
will reduce the deficit by more than $1 trillion over the next two decades and pay for all
new coverage. The President also convened
the bipartisan National Commission on
Fiscal Responsibility and Reform (the Fiscal
Commission) whose work reset the debate
about further deficit reduction and provided
a framework for the kind of balanced deficit
reduction package that is needed.
The President’s submission to the Joint
Select Committee on Deficit Reduction in
September 2011 and his 2013 Budget released last February both included many proposals from the Fiscal Commission plan and
followed a similar approach of drawing from
all parts of the budget. In the 2013 Budget,
the President put forward a plan that, building on the deficit reduction undertaken the
previous year, would reduce the deficit over
the next decade by more than $4 trillion, put
the country on a course to achieve deficits be-

3
low 3 percent of GDP by the end of the decade,
and stabilize the debt relative to the size of
the economy. The President’s plan, as updated
in the Mid-Session Review, achieves those results by following a balanced approach. First,
implementing the discretionary spending caps
in the Budget Control Act of 2011 (BCA) will
generate approximately $1 trillion in savings
over the next decade and will bring domestic
discretionary spending to its lowest level as
a share of the economy since the Eisenhower
Administration. Second, to build on the work
done to reduce health care costs through the
Affordable Care Act, the President proposes
$326 billion in additional reforms to Medicare,
Medicaid, and other health programs over 10
years. Third, he puts forward $254 billion in
additional mandatory savings over the next
decade. Fourth, the President proposes a plan
to raise more than $1.5 trillion in revenues
over the next decade through tax reform that
would not raise taxes on those making less
than $250,000 per year (for married couples),
but would ask millionaires, billionaires, and
large corporations to shoulder their fair share.
Unfortunately, Congress has not yet passed
a balanced deficit reduction framework, let
alone the necessary legislation enacting that
framework into law. Instead, the House has
embraced a budget resolution that fails the
test of balance, fairness, and responsibility proposing large tax cuts for the wealthy and
deep cuts in areas needed to grow the economy
and support small and growing businesses,
the middle class, and vulnerable populations.
Because the Joint Select Committee on
Deficit Reduction established by the BCA
failed to agree on a balanced approach to deficit reduction by its November 2011 deadline,
Congress was unable to meet the requirements of the BCA that it voted into law, to approve $1.2 trillion in additional deficit reduction by the end of 2011. As a result, the Nation
faces the prospect of a sequestration taking
effect on January 2, 2013. The scheduled sequestration is, by design, bad policy that will
have destructive effects on both defense and
non-defense discretionary programs and services and on critical entitlement programs
such as Medicare. The Administration believes Congress should act to avoid the sequester with a balanced deficit reduction package,
along the lines of the President’s 2013 Budget.
Congress still has time to act and it should do

4
so promptly, to reduce the deficit in a way that
is balanced and not harmful to the economic
health of the nation.
The President has also called on Congress
to extend middle-class tax cuts for the 98 percent of Americans making less than $250,000
for another year. If Congress fails to act, a
typical middle-class family of four will see its
taxes go up by $2,200 next year.
MID-SESSION UPDATE
The Mid-Session Review updates estimates
of Federal receipts, outlays, and the deficit for
legislation enacted through early July, and
for a revised economic forecast, technical reestimates, and other policy changes that have
occurred since the President’s Budget was released in February.
Revised Deficit and Debt Outlook
The deficit for 2012 is now expected to be
$1,211 billion, down $116 billion from the
deficit of $1,327 billion deficit estimated in
February. As a percentage of GDP, the 2012
deficit is projected to be 7.8 percent of GDP,
down from 8.5 percent of GDP in February.
This latest projection also represents a decline
in the deficit from 2011, both in dollar terms
and as a percentage of GDP. The reduction in
the estimated 2012 deficit from February is
more than accounted for by lower projections
of spending for this year, which are partly offset by lower projected receipts. A portion of
the lower deficit is due to revised estimates
of the impact of the Administration’s proposals for temporary tax relief and investments
to create jobs and jumpstart growth. In the
February Budget, much of the cost of these
proposals was estimated to occur in 2012.
However, because most of these proposals
have not yet been enacted, the MSR estimates
that these costs will largely shift to 2013 and
later years, which reduces the 2012 deficit.
Relative to the February estimate, the deficit is now projected to be higher in 2013, estimated at $991 billion as compared to $901
billion in February. This increase is driven by
lower receipt projections and the shift in costs
of the temporary jobs proposals. Over the
10-year budget window, 2013 through 2021,
deficits are now projected to be $240 billion
lower than in February, due almost entirely

MID-SESSION REVIEW

to economic and technical revisions that reduce outlays while reducing receipts by lower
amounts. As a percent of GDP, deficits are
reduced in each year of the MSR forecast after 2014. The deficit is projected to stabilize
at 2.6 percent of GDP after 2017, down from
an ultimate level of 2.8 percent of GDP in the
February projections.
The lower deficit outlook in the MSR produces correspondingly lower projections for
Federal Government debt held by the public.
Debt held by the public, which is an important
indicator of the extent to which Government
activity affects the financial markets, is projected to be $11,414 billion at the end of 2012,
or 73.5 percent of GDP, down from the estimate of $11,578 billion, or 74.2 percent of
GDP, in February. Debt at the end of 2013
is projected to be $12,572 billion, down from
$12,637 billion in February, but as a percent
of GDP is projected to be slightly higher than
in February (77.5 percent versus 77.4 percent) because of downward revisions in the
GDP forecast.
Over the longer term, the lower deficits in
the MSR result in a declining path for debt
held by the public as a share of GDP. In the
February Budget, deficits stabilized in the
second half of the 10-year budget window at
around 2.8 percent of GDP, a level which was
sufficient to hold debt stable at around 76.5
percent of GDP. The reduction of outyear deficits in the MSR to 2.6 percent of GDP is sufficient to bring the debt share of GDP down
slightly each year, with debt falling from 77.1
percent in 2017 to 75.1 percent in 2022. Debt
net of financial assets, a measure which nets
out financial assets such as direct loan holdings from the debt level, shows a similar declining path, falling from 68.4 percent of GDP
in 2017 to 66.2 percent of GDP in 2022.
Enacted Legislation
Legislation enacted since the February
Budget was released has a minimal effect on
the updated budget projections, because the
provisions of that legislation with the largest
effects on receipts and outlays were already
reflected in the Administration’s February
proposals. Overall, enacted legislation and
other policy changes, including debt service
on these changes, increases the deficit relative to the February Budget by $1 billion in

5

SUMMARY

2012 and reduces deficits by $15 billion over
the 10-year period, 2013 through 2022.
Middle Class Tax Relief and Job
Creation Act. This legislation, enacted
shortly after the President’s Budget was released, extended the two-percentage point
payroll tax holiday, emergency unemployment benefits, and relief from reductions in
Medicare physician payments for the remainder of calendar year 2012. These provisions
were all due to expire at the end of February.
In addition to extending these expiring provisions, the bill also increased retirement contributions for new Federal civilian employees,
repealed certain timing shifts in corporation
income tax payments, expanded authority
for auctions of the electromagnetic spectrum
with a portion of the proceeds designated for
development of an interoperable public safety communications network, and made several changes in Medicare and Medicaid. The
February Budget already reflected proposals
that were similar to the provisions in the act,
so that its passage had only a minimal effect
on the Budget estimates, raising the deficit by
$2 billion in 2012 and reducing the deficit by
$1 billion over 2013 through 2022.
Moving Ahead for Progress in the
21st Century Act (MAP-21). MAP-21 reauthorized surface transportation programs
through 2014, reauthorized the National Flood
Insurance Program through 2017, and delayed
for one year an increase in student loan interest rates that was scheduled to take place as of
July 1, 2012. Among the act’s numerous other
provisions, it changed requirements for employers to make contributions to defined benefit pension programs, raised premiums paid
to the Pension Benefit Guaranty Corporation,
limited the receipt of student loans to 150 percent of the institution’s program length, and
established a phased retirement program for
Federal employees. As with the Middle Class
Tax Relief and Job Creation Act, most of the
bill’s provisions with significant budgetary
effects were versions of proposals already included in the February Budget. Enactment
of MAP-21 reduced the deficit by $1 billion in
2012 and by $5 billion over 2013-22.

Estimating Changes
New estimates of receipts and outlays due
to revisions to the economic forecast and technical estimating assumptions reduce the deficit by $117 billion in 2012. These changes
increase the deficit by $101 billion in 2013,
but reduce the deficit by a total of $225 billion
over the 10-year period as a whole.
The $117 billion reduction in the deficit in
2012 due to estimating changes is more than
accounted for by a $144 billion reduction in
outlays, due to new information on spending
to date, delay in enactment of the February
jobs proposals, and other factors. The outlay
reduction is spread across discretionary and
mandatory programs, including $32 billion
lower outlays due to the cost of the temporary
jobs proposals shifting from 2012 into 2013
and 2014. The $144 billion reduction in outlays is partly offset by a reduction of $27 billion in receipts, which is itself due to a weaker
near-term economic forecast and revisions in
technical factors, offset by a shift in receipt
effects of unenacted jobs proposals from 2012
into 2013 and later years.
Over the 10-year period 2013 through 2022,
revisions to the economic projection and technical re-estimates reduce the deficit by $225
billion. This reduction is the net effect of
reductions in outlays of $743 billion over 10
years, offset by reductions in receipts of $518
billion. The reductions in outlays are the result of lower projected spending for net interest, resulting primarily from lower assumed
interest rates relative to the February economic forecast, and lower spending for Social
Security, Medicare, and Medicaid, due to a
combination of economic and technical factors.
About half of the reduction in receipts is due
to the revised economic forecast, particularly
reduced levels of GDP growth and incomes,
and the remainder is due to technical factors,
chiefly updated information about corporation income tax payments. More detail about
changes in receipt and outlay projections can
be found in the receipt and spending sections
of the Mid-Session Review.

6

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Table 1. CHANGES IN DEFICITS FROM THE FEBRUARY BUDGET
(Dollar amounts in billions)
2013–
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2013–
2017 2022
2013 February Budget deficit ������������������������������� 1,327 901 668 610 649 612 575 626 658 681 704
Percent of GDP �������������������������������������������������� 8.5% 5.5% 3.9% 3.4% 3.4% 3.0% 2.7% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8% 2.8%
Enacted legislation and policy changes:
Middle Class Tax Relief and Job Creation
Job Act of 2012 �����������������������������������������
Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st
Century Act of 2012 ���������������������������������
Other legislation and policy changes ����������
Debt service ��������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, enacted legislation and policy
changes ����������������������������������������������������������

2

–8

*

–2

–1

–*

1

3

2

2

1

–10

–1

–1
*
*

–4
*
–*

–8
*
–*

–8
*
–1

–5
–*
–1

–1
–*
–1

1
–*
–2

2
–*
–1

5
–*
–1

7
–*
–1

7
–*
–1

–27
*
–3

–5
*
–9

1

–12

–8

–10

–7

–3

1

4

6

7

7

–40

–15

–49
76

32
113

3
51

2
56

1
51

1
53

1
47

*
29

*
23

*
25

*
29

38
324

40
478

27
–55

144
–17

53
16

58
17

52
7

54
2

47
*

30
–*

23
–*

25
–*

29
–*

363
25

518
24

4
–9
–4
–13

–7
–15
–7
–11

–6
–12
–8
–8

–7
–8
–9
–5

–9
–10
–10
–3

–12
–8
–11
–1

–14
–10
–11
–1

–15
–10
–12
*

–17
–10
–12
*

–18
–8
–15
*

–18
–7
–15
*

Economic and technical reestimates:
Receipts:
Temporary tax relief to create jobs and
jumpstart growth ����������������������������������
Other receipts ��������������������������������������������
Total receipts �����������������������������������������
Discretionary programs �������������������������������
Mandatory:
Medicaid ���������������������������������������������������
Medicare ����������������������������������������������������
Social Security �������������������������������������������
Unemployment compensation �����������������
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
Program ������������������������������������������������
Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund �����������
Purchases of GSE preferred stock ������������
Deposit Insurance Fund ���������������������������
Temporary investments to create jobs
and jumpstart growth ���������������������������
Other ����������������������������������������������������������

–41 –123
–52 –97
–45 –110
–29 –28

–4
–1
–2
–4
–4
–4
–3
–2
–2
–2
–2 –16 –26
–2
–*
–*
–1
–1
–2
–2
–2
–3
–3
–4
–4 –19
–16 ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
–6
2
*
*
2
3
4
5
1
1
*
7
18
–32
–1

30
2

2 ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
1
–3
4
–1
3
–*
*
1
2

Total mandatory ������������������������������������ –84
Net interest 1��������������������������������������������������
–6
Subtotal, economic and technical reestimates � –117

–7
–19
101

–35
–33
1

–37
–43
–5

–33
–53
–26

–34
–55
–33

–34
–47
–33

–37
–44
–51

–42
–41
–59

–44
–41
–61

–43 –146 –346
–45 –203 –422
–59
38 –225

Total, changes �������������������������������������������������������� –116

89

–6

–15

–33

–36

–33

–47

–54

–53

–52

Mid-Session Review deficit ����������������������������������� 1,211 991 661 595 615 576 543 578 604 627 652
Percent of GDP �������������������������������������������������� 7.8% 6.1% 3.9% 3.3% 3.2% 2.9% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6% 2.6%
Note: positive figures represent higher outlays or lower receipts.
*$500 million or less.
1
Includes debt service on all reestimates.

32
2

32
8

–1 –240

ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
This Mid-Session Review (MSR) updates
the economic forecast from the 2013 Budget,
which was completed last November and released with the Budget in early February.
The 2013 Budget forecast projected that the
economic recovery that began in 2009 would
continue. Unemployment was expected to decline as the economy recovered, and inflation
was expected to remain moderate. Interest
rates were expected to remain quite low in the
near term, but to rise gradually in the medium term. The MSR forecast, which was completed in June, maintains these assumptions
with minor modifications to take account of
changing conditions since the last forecast.

the Tax Relief, Unemployment Insurance
Reauthorization and Job Creation Act
(TRUIRJCA) in December 2010 further
sustained demand and fostered continued
growth. TRUIRJCA included a two-percentage point payroll tax holiday and extended
emergency unemployment benefits among
other measures. The one-year payroll tax holiday and emergency unemployment benefits
in TRUIRJCA were extended for two months
at the end of 2011. In mid-February 2012, the
President and Congress agreed to extend the
payroll tax holiday and a modified version
of the emergency unemployment provisions
through the end of the calendar year.

Since 2009, real GDP has risen for 11
straight quarters.1 The unemployment rate
has declined from its peak of 10.0 percent to
8.2 percent in June 2012. Following the resumption of real GDP growth, the economy
began adding jobs, and private sector employment has increased in each of the past
28 months. The labor market recovery is occurring only gradually, however, and the pace
of improvement slowed again in the second
quarter of this year. It will take several more
years of healthy job growth to offset fully the
8.9 million private sector jobs that were lost
between January 2008 and February 2010.

Last summer, the Administration and
Congress reached agreement on the Budget
Control Act of 2011 (BCA), which will reduce
the budget deficit and moderate the rise in
the debt-to-GDP ratio in the later years of
the forecast. This fiscal adjustment is needed
to avoid an unsustainable rise in debt that
would undermine future growth. At the same
time, near-term action is needed to avoid a
major fiscal contraction in 2013, which would
threaten the recovery. The 2013 Budget also
proposed a number of policies that would
help sustain growth in 2012 and 2013. Some
of these, including the extension of the payroll tax holiday and emergency unemployment compensation, have been enacted. The
Administration continues to support the remaining policies, and the MSR forecast assumes they will be enacted.

Administration policies have contributed to
the economic recovery, as have the automatic
fiscal stabilizers such as the unemployment
compensation system. In the last quarter of
2008, real GDP was dropping at an annual
rate of 8.9 percent; in January 2009 alone, the
economy lost 839,000 private sector jobs. The
Administration’s prompt action in enacting
the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
helped to reverse these declines in jobs and
real GDP and opened the way to a sustained
economic recovery.
Additional actions by the Administration
and Congress culminating in the passage of
Data were available only through 2012:Q1 when
the forecast was completed in June. Data for the
second quarter were released on July 27, after the
MSR was printed.
1

Although Administration actions helped
spark and sustain the ongoing recovery, the
economy continues to face serious headwinds
that have dampened growth and limited gains
in employment. Financial market uncertainty has hampered new borrowing and lending for purposes of business investment and
home construction. Spreads between private
debt, such as commercial paper, and Treasury
securities have generally returned to precrisis levels, but standards remain relatively
tight, and many credit-worthy borrowers still
have had difficulty finding credit. Eventually,
credit should become more available, but that
usually takes time.

7

8
The bursting of the housing bubble and
dramatic loss of housing wealth during the
crisis has had a severe impact on the overall
U.S. economy. Despite the deep hole created
by the crisis, there is growing evidence that
the housing market has stabilized and is beginning to rebound. The inventory of homes
on the market has been declining rapidly,
from a peak of 12.1 months in July of 2010 to
6.4 months in June of 2012. Moreover, housing starts jumped to a nearly 4-year high in
June, increasing 23.6 percent from 12 months
earlier. Meanwhile, housing prices have begun to recover. All three of the major housing
price indices posted increases in prices this
spring. Government and private sector mortgage modification programs have allowed
millions of affected homeowners to stay in
their homes by restructuring unaffordable
mortgages, increasingly by writing down the
principal on these loans. Moreover, efforts to
remove barriers to refinancing have begun to
have an impact. Since changes were implemented in the Home Affordable Refinance
Program (HARP), HARP refinancing closings have increased dramatically, growing 93
percent between the last quarter of 2011 and
the first quarter of 2012.
The country has also faced an unprecedented amount of fiscal drag from State and
local governments, which over the past four
decades have contributed about ¼ percentage point to GDP growth annually on average. However, thus far in the recovery State
and local government spending has been on
a downward trajectory. State governments
generally face balanced budget requirements,
and the economic downturn, which reduced
State and local tax revenue significantly, has
forced fiscal consolidation at the State and
local government level. The 2009 Recovery
Act helped ease the burden of State and local
government fiscal adjustments in 2009-2010,
and subsequent measures have also helped
the States and localities deal with budget
shortfalls. But despite this Federal aid, State
and local governments have still found it necessary to pursue fiscal consolidation to meet
their balanced budget requirements. This
fiscal tightening at the State and local level
has reduced aggregate demand and slowed
growth nationally. Since June 2010, employment in State and local government has de-

MID-SESSION REVIEW

clined by 408,000 jobs, while the private sector has been a net creator of jobs. Over the
four quarters ending in 2012:Q1, real outlays
by State and local governments for consumption and investment fell by 2.3 percent and
lowered real GDP growth by 0.5 percentage
points.
Economic and financial fragility in the Euro
area remains a significant risk to the U.S.
recovery and to the global economy. Europe
is the largest export market for the U.S., so
weaker demand in Europe means weaker job
growth at home. European banks are interconnected with financial markets around the
world, so volatility in Europe undermines
sentiment in the United States. Because of
these concerns, the Administration has consulted closely with its European counterparts
throughout the crisis and has urged European
officials to take steps to reduce immediate financial market stresses, even as they undertake longer-term reform and integration plans
to promote growth, adjustment, and stability.
Despite these headwinds, the Administration
expects economic growth to continue at a moderate pace in 2012 and 2013 and to pick up in
2014. The U.S. economy is operating well below its capacity, with higher levels of unused
resources than at any time in over a quarter
century. The potential for a more rapid recovery is present in this low level of resource utilization. At some point over the next few years,
such an acceleration in the recovery is likely to
occur, and the Administration forecast reflects
that expectation. The Administration does not
believe that the U.S. economy has permanently foregone all of the output lost during the
recession.
With improved growth in 2014-2018, unemployment is projected to further decline, as
the economy returns to its potential. Beyond
2018, the Administration’s forecast is based
on the long-run trends expected for real GDP
growth, price inflation, and interest rates.
Real GDP growth is expected to average 2.5
percent in the long run, which is unchanged
from previous forecasts. This projection is
somewhat below the historical average for the
United States, because of an expected slowdown in the growth of the labor force as the
population ages.

9

ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

Table 2. ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS 1
(Calendar years; dollar amounts in billions)
Actual
2010

Projections

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
Levels, dollar amounts in billions:
Current dollars �������������������������������� 14,527 15,094 15,702 16,396 17,252 18,272 19,340 20,457 21,507 22,505 23,515 24,563 25,663
Constant (2005) dollars ������������������ 13,088 13,315 13,626 13,996 14,484 15,084 15,689 16,290 16,804 17,252 17,687 18,129 18,582
Price index (2005 = 100) ����������������� 111.0 113.3 115.2 117.1 119.1 121.1 123.3 125.6 128.0 130.4 133.0 135.5 138.1
Percent change, Q4/Q4:
Current dollars ��������������������������������
Constant (2005) dollars ������������������
Price index (2005 = 100) �����������������

4.7
3.1
1.6

3.8
1.6
2.1

4.3
2.6
1.7

4.3
2.6
1.6

5.7
4.0
1.7

6.0
4.2
1.7

5.8
3.9
1.8

5.8
3.8
1.9

4.8
2.8
1.9

4.6
2.6
1.9

4.4
2.5
1.9

4.5
2.5
1.9

4.5
2.5
1.9

Percent change, year over year:
Current dollars ��������������������������������
Constant (2005) dollars ������������������
Price index (2005 = 100) �����������������

4.2
3.0
1.2

3.9
1.7
2.1

4.0
2.3
1.7

4.4
2.7
1.7

5.2
3.5
1.7

5.9
4.1
1.7

5.8
4.0
1.8

5.8
3.8
1.9

5.1
3.2
1.9

4.6
2.7
1.9

4.5
2.5
1.9

4.5
2.5
1.9

4.5
2.5
1.9

Incomes, billions of current dollars:
Domestic corporate profits ��������������
Employee compensation �����������������
Wages and salaries �������������������������
Other taxable income 2 ��������������������

1,418
7,971
6,408
3,108

1,514
8,277
6,668
3,303

1,743
8,540
6,888
3,437

1,817
8,869
7,182
3,607

1,820
9,318
7,538
3,842

1,913
9,903
7,988
4,123

2,017
10,532
8,505
4,419

2,081
11,211
9,071
4,675

2,103
11,857
9,610
4,914

2,072
12,493
10,135
5,137

2,042
13,126
10,653
5,372

1,956
13,796
11,193
5,594

1,906
14,487
11,753
5,801

Consumer Price Index (all urban): 3
Level (1982-84 = 100) ����������������������
Percent change, Q4/Q4 ��������������������
Percent change, year/year ���������������

218.1 224.9 229.7 234.0 238.7 243.5 248.5 254.0 259.5 265.3 271.1 277.1 283.1
1.2
3.3
1.9
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
1.6
3.1
2.1
1.9
2.0
2.0
2.1
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2

Unemployment rate, civilian,
percent:
Fourth quarter level ������������������������
Annual average �������������������������������

9.6
9.6

8.7
8.9

7.9
8.0

7.6
7.7

7.1
7.3

6.5
6.7

6.0
6.2

5.5
5.7

5.4
5.4

5.4
5.4

5.4
5.4

5.4
5.4

5.4
5.4

Federal pay raises, January, percent:
Military 4 ������������������������������������������
Civilian 5 �������������������������������������������

3.4
2.0

1.4
0.0

1.6
0.0

1.7
0.5

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

Interest rates, percent:
91-day Treasury bills 6 ���������������������
10-year Treasury notes �������������������

0.1
3.2

0.1
2.8

0.1
2.0

0.2
2.7

1.1
3.5

2.3
4.1

3.3
4.5

3.6
4.9

3.8
5.0

3.8
5.1

3.8
5.1

3.8
5.1

3.8
5.1

NA = Not Available; Q4/Q4 = fourth quarter over fourth quarter
Based on information available as of June 2011.
2
Rent, interest, dividend, and proprietors' income components of personal income.
3
Seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers.
4
Percentages apply to basic pay only; percentages to be proposed for years after 2013 have not yet been determined.
5
Overall average increase, including locality pay adjustments. Percentages to be proposed for years after 2013 have not yet been
determined.
6
Average rate, secondary market (bank discount basis).
1

10
ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
The MSR economic projections are based
on information available through early June
2012. They are summarized in Table 2.
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the
Unemployment Rate: Real GDP is expected
to rise by 2.6 percent during the four quarters
of 2012 and to increase 2.6 percent in the four
quarters of 2013. The growth rate is projected
to rise to 4.0 percent in 2014 and 4.2 percent
in 2015. Beyond 2015, real GDP growth is
projected to moderate as the level of real GDP
approaches its potential. The growth rate is
steady at 2.5 percent per year in 2020-2022.
The unemployment rate is projected to
reach 7.9 percent by the fourth quarter of
2012, below its level in June. Unemployment
is projected to decline slowly this year and
next, because of the moderate pace of expected real GDP growth and because, as
labor market conditions improve, workers
rejoin the labor force, adding upward pressure on unemployment. With accelerated
growth, the unemployment rate is projected
to fall more rapidly, eventually stabilizing
at 5.4 percent.
Inflation: Overall inflation rose in early
2012 mainly because of a sharp rise in world
oil prices, and it has moderated since then
as oil prices have declined. Core inflation,
which excludes food and energy prices, also
rose, but much less dramatically than the topline measure. Although core inflation does
not include direct energy costs, it does reflect
indirect costs, as energy is used to produce
a wide range of goods and services throughout the economy. For example, airplane fares
and trucking costs bear a close relationship
to energy prices. Core inflation was 2.2 percent between June 2011 and June 2012; it had
been only 1.6 percent over the preceding 12
months. Looking ahead, inflation is expected
to edge down somewhat in the short term. As
the economy recovers and unemployment declines in the medium term, inflation is expected to rise somewhat. In the long run, the CPI
inflation rate is projected to be 2.2 percent per
year. The other main measure of inflation in
the projection is the chained price index for
Gross Domestic Product. Year-over-year inflation by this measure is projected to be 1.7
percent in 2012, and 1.9 percent in 2017-2022.

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Interest Rates: The projections for interest
rates are based on financial market data and
market expectations at the time the forecast
was developed. The three-month Treasury bill
rate is expected to average only 0.1 percent in
2012 and 0.2 percent in 2013. It is expected to
begin to rise in 2014 and to reach 3.8 percent by
2018. The yield on the 10-year Treasury note
is projected to average just 2.0 percent in 2012,
the lowest rate ever recorded for the 10-year
note, which has been issued since 1953. As the
economy continues to recover, the 10-year rate
is expected to rise and to reach 5.1 percent by
2019. In the later years of the forecast, interest rates are close to their historical averages in
real terms, given the projected rate of inflation.
Incomes and Income Shares: Corporate profits have rebounded more quickly than labor
compensation (which consists of wages and
salaries and employee fringe benefits). As a
result, corporate profits have risen as a share
of total income, while labor compensation as a
share of total income has fallen below its longrun average. As the economy recovers, this
trend is expected to reverse. Labor compensation is projected to rise somewhat relative
to total income, while the share of corporate
profits is projected to fall. The wage share,
excluding fringe benefits, is also expected to
recover from its recent low level in step with
the increase in compensation.
FORECAST COMPARISONS
A comparison of the MSR forecast with the
most recent Blue Chip (an average of about
50 private-sector forecasts) and Federal Open
Market Committee (FOMC) forecasts is shown
in Table 3. For 2012, the Administration projects a real GDP growth rate (fourth quarter
over fourth quarter) of 2.6 percent. This projection is above the Blue Chip Consensus and
the range defined by the central tendency of
the forecasts from the June FOMC meeting
due to the Administration’s assumption that
its additional economic recovery proposals will
be adopted. For 2013, real GDP growth is also
projected to be 2.6 percent, which is within the
FOMC central tendency of forecasts and near
the Blue Chip consensus of 2.5 percent.
The Administration projects that the unemployment rate will average 8.0 percent in
2012, 7.7 percent in 2013, and 7.3 percent in
2014. The Blue Chip consensus is quite simi-

11

ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

Table 3. COMPARISON OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
(Calendar years; dollar amounts in billions)
2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Nominal GDP:
MSR ����������������������������������������������� 15,094 15,702 16,396 17,252 18,272 19,340 20,457 21,507 22,505 23,515 24,563 25,663
Budget ������������������������������������������� 15,106 15,779 16,522 17,397 18,448 19,533 20,651 21,689 22,666 23,659 24,688 25,760
Blue Chip 1 ������������������������������������� 15,094 15,683 16,326 17,153 18,056 18,989 19,949 20,918 21,884 22,902 23,967 25,082
percent change, fourth quarter over fourth quarter
Real GDP:
MSR �����������������������������������������������
Budget �������������������������������������������
Blue Chip 1 �������������������������������������
FOMC Central Tendency ��������������

1.6
2.6
2.6
4.0
1.7
3.0
3.0
4.0
1.6
2.0
2.5
3.1
1.6 1.9–2.4 2.2–2.8 3.0–3.5

4.2
4.2
3.0

3.9
3.9
2.9

3.8
2.8
2.6
2.5
3.8
2.8
2.6
2.5
2.8
2.7
2.4
2.6
Longer Run Average: 2.3–2.5

2.5
2.5
2.4

2.5
2.5
2.6

percent change, year over year
Real GDP:
MSR �����������������������������������������������
Budget �������������������������������������������
Blue Chip ���������������������������������������

1.7
1.8
1.7

2.3
2.7
2.1

2.7
3.0
2.3

3.5
3.6
3.0

4.1
4.1
3.0

4.0
4.0
2.9

3.8
3.9
2.8

3.2
3.2
2.7

2.7
2.7
2.5

2.5
2.5
2.5

2.5
2.5
2.5

2.5
2.5
2.5

GDP Price Index:
MSR �����������������������������������������������
Budget �������������������������������������������
Blue Chip ���������������������������������������

2.1
2.1
2.1

1.7
1.7
1.8

1.7
1.7
1.8

1.7
1.6
2.1

1.7
1.8
2.2

1.8
1.8
2.2

1.9
1.8
2.2

1.9
1.8
2.1

1.9
1.8
2.2

1.9
1.8
2.2

1.9
1.8
2.2

1.9
1.8
2.2

Consumer Price Index (CPI-U):
MSR �����������������������������������������������
Budget �������������������������������������������
Blue Chip ���������������������������������������

3.1
3.2
3.1

2.1
2.2
2.0

1.9
1.9
1.9

2.0
2.0
2.4

2.0
2.0
2.4

2.1
2.1
2.4

2.2
2.1
2.5

2.2
2.1
2.5

2.2
2.1
2.5

2.2
2.1
2.5

2.2
2.1
2.5

2.2
2.1
2.5

5.7
5.4
5.4
5.4
5.8
5.5
5.4
5.4
6.1
5.9
5.8
5.8
Longer Run Average: 5.2–6.0

5.4
5.4
5.8

5.4
5.4
5.8

annual average in percent
Unemployment Rate:
MSR �����������������������������������������������
Budget �������������������������������������������
Blue Chip ���������������������������������������
FOMC Central Tendency 2 ������������

8.9
8.0
7.7
7.3
9.0
8.9
8.6
8.1
9.0
8.2
7.8
7.2
8.7 8.0–8.2 7.5–8.0 7.0–7.7

6.7
7.3
6.7

6.2
6.5
6.4

91-Day Treasury Bills:
MSR �����������������������������������������������
Budget �������������������������������������������
Blue Chip ���������������������������������������

0.1
0.1
0.1

0.1
0.1
0.1

0.2
0.2
0.2

1.1
1.4
1.3

2.3
2.7
2.4

3.3
3.9
3.2

3.6
4.1
3.6

3.8
4.1
3.7

3.8
4.1
3.7

3.8
4.1
3.7

3.8
4.1
3.7

3.8
4.1
3.7

10-Year Treasury Notes:
MSR �����������������������������������������������
Budget �������������������������������������������
Blue Chip ���������������������������������������

2.8
2.8
2.8

2.0
2.8
1.9

2.7
3.5
2.4

3.5
3.9
3.7

4.1
4.4
4.2

4.5
4.7
4.6

4.9
5.0
4.9

5.0
5.1
4.9

5.1
5.1
4.9

5.1
5.1
4.9

5.1
5.3
4.9

5.1
5.3
4.9

MSR = Mid-Session Review (forecast date June 2012)
Budget = 2013 Budget (forecast date November 2011)
FOMC = Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (forecast central tendency, date June 20, 2012)
Blue Chip = July 2012 Blue Chip Consensus Forecast extended with March 2012 Blue Chip long-run survey
Sources: Administration; Federal Open Market Committee Projections Materials, June 20, 2012; Blue Chip Economic Indicators, March
and July 2012, Aspen Publishers.
1
Values for 2014–2022 interpolated by OMB from annual growth rates
2
Fourth quarter levels of unemployment rate.

12
lar: 8.2 percent in 2012, 7.8 percent in 2013,
and 7.2 percent in 2014. The FOMC also
projects that unemployment will fall. By the
fourth quarter of 2012, the central tendency of
the FOMC forecast ranges from 8.0 percent to
8.2 percent, in 2013:Q4 it ranges from 7.5 to
8.0 percent, and in 2014:Q4 it ranges from 7.0
to 7.7 percent. The Administration forecast is
generally near the bottom of that range.
The forecasts are similar for inflation and
interest rates. The private forecasters expect

MID-SESSION REVIEW

inflation to rise to between 2 percent to 2-1/2
percent per year for both main measures of
inflation, which is close to the average inflation rate of the past several years. The
Administration forecast projects slightly less
inflation, and slightly higher interest rates
than the private consensus. The unusually
low level of Federal interest rates that has
prevailed since the financial crisis is expected
to end but not until after another year of very
low rates in 2013. Eventually, real interest
rates return to near their historical averages.

RECEIPTS
The Mid-Session Review (MSR) estimates
of receipts are below the February Budget
estimates by $27 billion in 2012 and by $138
billion in 2013. In each subsequent year,
the MSR estimates of receipts are below the
February Budget estimates by amounts ranging from $27 billion to $52 billion, resulting
in a $500 billion decrease in receipts over the
10-year budget horizon (2013 through 2022).
The net reduction in 2012 receipts is in large
part attributable to the effect of technical revisions based on new tax reporting data, collections to date, and other information, which decrease receipts by $68 billion. Revised economic
assumptions reduce 2012 receipts by an additional $38 billion. These reductions are partially
offset by a $58 billion increase in receipts attributable to a reduction in the estimated cost of the
Administration’s proposals and a $21 billion increase in receipts attributable to a reduction in
the estimated cost of expiring provisions extended in the adjusted baseline. The reductions in the
cost of proposals and extensions in the adjusted
baseline are due largely to later assumed enactment of these proposals than in the February
Budget, which shifts net revenue losses from the
proposals out of 2012 and into later years.
The $138 billion reduction in 2013 receipts
reflects revisions in the economic forecast,
which reduce collections by $59 billion; technical re-estimates, which reduce receipts by $27
billion; and increases in the estimated cost of
the Administration’s proposals and the expiring
provisions extended in the adjusted baseline of
$47 billion and $12 billion, respectively. The
$500 billion reduction in receipts over the 10year budget horizon is primarily due to receipt
losses of $260 billion and $224 billion, respectively attributable to revisions in the economic
forecast and to technical revisions. Changes in
the estimated cost of the Administration’s proposals, attributable to economic and technical
revisions, reduce collections over the 10-year
budget horizon by an additional $60 billion.
Legislated tax changes and changes in the estimates of the provisions extended in the adjusted baseline offset these reductions by $18
billion and $25 billion, respectively.

ENACTED LEGISLATION
Legislation enacted since the February
Budget was released increases receipts relative to the February estimates by a negligible amount in 2012, $6 billion in 2013,
and a net $18 billion over the 10-year budget horizon. The bulk of this increase in
receipts is due to enactment of the Middle
Class Tax Relief and Job Creation Act
of 2012. This Act included several of the
Administration’s proposals, including the
proposed extension of the temporary reduction in the Social Security payroll tax rate
for employees and self-employed individuals and the proposed elimination of special
rules modifying the timing of estimated
tax payments by corporations, as well as
modified versions of the Administration’s
proposals to extend unemployment insurance benefits and to expand the shorttime compensation unemployment program. Enactment of these proposals had
only a small effect on receipts relative to
the February Budget, increasing receipts a
net $3 billion over the 10-year budget horizon. This Act also included a provision
to increase contributions to the Federal
Employees Retirement System (FERS), effective for employees joining the Federal
service after December 31, 2012. This provision, which was a modification of the
Administration’s proposal to increase the
contributions of all civilian employees to
civil service retirement (CSRS) and FERS
by smaller amounts, accounts for $7 billion
of the net increase in receipts relative to
the February Budget. Other legislation enacted since February that affects receipts
includes the Moving Ahead for Progress
in the 21st Century (MAP-21) Act and the
FAA Modernization and Reform Act of
2012. Legislated changes enacted in MAP21, which include modification of the interest rate used for purposes of determining
required contributions by employers to
pension plans, account for $7 billion of the
10-year net increase in receipts relative to
the February Budget.

13

14
REVISIONS IN EXPIRING
PROVISIONS EXTENDED IN
THE ADJUSTED BASELINE
The February adjusted baseline permanently continued the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts
for all taxpayers; permanently continued estate, gift, and generation-skipping transfer
taxes at 2012 parameters; and reflected permanent extension of relief from the alternative minimum tax (AMT). Revisions in the
estimated cost of these provisions increase
receipts by $21 billion in 2012, reduce receipts by $12 billion in 2013, and increase
receipts in each subsequent year for a net
increase of $25 billion over the 10 years,
2013 through 2022. The $21 billion increase
in 2012 is in large part attributable to delay
in enacting the proposed extension of AMT
relief, which expired on December 31, 2011.
This delay in enactment, which pushes the
cost of extension into 2013, is in large part
responsible for the $12 billion increase in
the estimated cost of extending these expiring provisions in 2013. The reduction in the
cost of extending these expiring provisions
in each subsequent year is due primarily
to reductions in the economic forecast for
wages and salaries and revisions to models
of receipts, which were re-estimated using
current collection experience and updated
tax data for prior years.
ECONOMIC CHANGES
Revisions in the economic forecast reduce
receipts by $38 billion in 2012, $59 billion in
2013, and declining amounts in each subsequent year, for a total reduction of $260 billion
over the 10 years beginning in 2013 and running through 2022. In 2012, revisions to the
economic forecast have the greatest effect on
individual income taxes and social insurance
and retirement receipts, reducing those sources of receipts by $22 billion and $12 billion,
respectively. The reduction in 2012 individual
income tax receipts is primarily attributable
to reductions in the forecasts of wages and
salaries and nonwage sources of personal income. Reductions in the forecast of wages and
salaries and proprietor’s income, which are
the tax base for Social Security and Medicare
payroll taxes, the largest components of social
insurance and retirement receipts, account
for most of the $12 billion reduction in this
source of receipts in 2012.

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Over the 10-year budget horizon, revisions
in the economic forecast have the greatest
effect on individual income taxes and social
insurance and retirement receipts, reducing
collections by $226 billion and $115 billion,
respectively. Reductions in the economic forecast for wages and salaries, nonwage sources
of personal income, and proprietor’s income
account for most of the downward revision in
these two sources of receipts. The reductions in
individual income taxes and social insurance
and retirement receipts are partially offset by
net increases in corporation income taxes of
$87 billion, due to changes in the forecast of
GDP and other economic measures that affect
the profitability of corporations. Revisions
in the forecast of GDP, interest rates, other
sources of income, and imports reduce other
sources of receipts (excise taxes, estate and
gift taxes, customs duties, and deposits of
earnings by the Federal Reserve System) by
a net $5 billion.
TECHNICAL CHANGES
Technical revisions in the estimates reduce
receipts by $68 billion in 2012, $27 billion in
2013, and $13 billion to $30 billion in each
subsequent year, for a decrease of $224 billion over the 10-year budget horizon. The net
decrease in receipts in each year over the 10year budget horizon is primarily due to net
downward re-estimates of corporation income
taxes, along with reductions in individual income taxes and social insurance and retirement receipts, which are only partially offset
by net upward re-estimates of the remaining
sources of receipts. The technical revisions in
both individual and corporation income taxes
are in large part attributable to more recent
collections data and revisions in the tax models based primarily on updated tax data for
prior years, including updated data showing
reduced profit margins in corporation income
tax filings for tax year 2010 and reduced takeup of bonus depreciation provisions. More recent taxable wage data from employer returns
accounts for most of the technical revision in
social insurance and retirement receipts.
REVISIONS IN PROPOSALS
Revisions in the estimates of the
Administration’s proposals that have not yet
been enacted increase receipts by $58 billion
in 2012, reduce receipts by $47 billion in 2013,

15

RECEIPTS

and have a much smaller effect in subsequent
years, reducing receipts by a net $60 billion
over the 10 years, 2013 through 2022. The $58
billion increase in 2012 receipts is attributable to delay in enacting the Administration’s

tax relief proposals. This delay in enactment
increases the cost of these proposals in 2013
and accounts for much of the $47 billion increase in the cost of the Administration’s proposals in that year.

Table 4. CHANGE IN RECEIPTS
(In billions of dollars)
2012
February estimate �������������������������������

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2013–
2022 2013–
2017 2022

2021

2,469 2,902 3,215 3,450 3,680 3,919 4,153 4,379 4,604 4,857 5,115

Changes due to enacted legislation ����

*

6

7

8

5

2

1

–1

–3

–4

–3

28

18

Changes due to economic and
technical revisions in provisions
extended in the adjusted baseline������

21

–12

4

4

5

5

5

4

4

3

3

7

25

Changes due to revised economic
assumptions:
Individual income taxes �����������������
Corporation income taxes ��������������
Social insurance and retirement ���
Other �����������������������������������������������
Subtotal, economic assumptions ��������

–22
–2
–12
–2
–38

–25
–17
–12
–5
–59

–21
–16
–10
–2
–49

–23
–4
–11
–*
–37

–23
3
–12
*
–32

–24
9
–12
–1
–28

–24
15
–13
–2
–24

–24
20
–11
–1
–16

–22
25
–13
*
–10

–21
26
–11
2
–4

–19
27
–10
2
–1

–115
–25
–57
–8
–204

–226
87
–115
–5
–260

Changes due to technical reestimates:
Individual income taxes �����������������
Corporation income taxes ��������������
Social insurance and retirement ���
Other �����������������������������������������������
Subtotal, technical reestimates ����������

–52
–28
11
1
–68

–10
–14
–4
1
–27

2
–19
–*
4
–13

2
–14
–5
2
–16

*
–15
–6
1
–20

–2
–18
–4
1
–23

–4
–17
–3
–*
–25

–4
–18
–1
1
–21

–4
–19
–2
2
–23

–6
–19
–4
3
–25

–10
–19
–5
3
–30

–9
–80
–19
8
–100

–36
–172
–33
17
–224

49
9

–32
–15

–3
7

–2
–7

–1
–4

–1
–7

–1
–3

–*
3

–*
6

–*
1

–*
–1

–38
–27

–40
–20

58

–47

4

–9

–6

–8

–3

3

6

1

–1

–66

–60

–27

–138

–47

–51

–47

–52

–46

–31

–27

–29

–33

–334

–500

Changes due to economic and
technical revisions in proposals:
Temporary tax relief to create jobs
and jumpstart growth ���������������
Other proposals ������������������������������
Subtotal, economic and technical
revisions in proposals ��������������������
Total change in receipts ��������������������������
Mid-Session estimate ��������������������������
*$500 million or less

2,442 2,764 3,169 3,400 3,633 3,867 4,107 4,348 4,577 4,827 5,083

EXPENDITURES
Outlays for 2012 are now estimated to be
$3,653 billion, $143 billion lower than the
February Budget estimate, due to slowerthan-expected spending across a range of
discretionary and mandatory programs, as
well as the delay in enactment of proposals
from the February Budget to promote nearterm economic and job growth. Relative to
the February Budget, projected total outlays
have decreased by $49 billion in 2013 and by
$741 billion over 2013 to 2022. These reductions in outyear spending are primarily the
cumulative downward effect of economic and
technical reestimates in a number of mandatory programs, most notably Social Security,
Medicare, and Medicaid.
POLICY CHANGES
Relative to the estimates in the February
Budget, legislation enacted since the Budget
was released has had only a modest impact on
outlays, because the Budget already incorporated proposals similar to the enacted provisions. In 2012, enacted legislation increases
spending by $1 billion. Enacted legislation
continues to have a minimal effect on spending over the next 10 years, 2013 through 2022,
increasing outlays by $2 billion over that time
period.
Middle Class Tax Relief and Job
Creation Act of 2012. This act, passed in
February, enacted several key provisions
very similar to ones included in the February
Budget, most notably an extension through
the end of calendar year 2012 of the two-percentage point payroll tax holiday, emergency
unemployment compensation, and relief from
scheduled reductions in Medicare physician
payments. Additional provisions in the act
included the expansion of the FCC’s authority to auction spectrum rights and use of auction proceeds to help build an interoperable
public safety broadband network. Reflecting
the enactment of this legislation in the MSR
increases spending relative to the February
Budget by $1 billion in 2012 and increases
spending relative to the Budget by $9 billion
over the next 10 years.

Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st
Century Act of 2012 (MAP-21 Act). At
the end of June, Congress passed the MAP21 Act, which again enacted many provisions closely tied to key Budget proposals
from February. These included a one-year
suspension of the student loan interest rate
increase scheduled for July 1st, reauthorization of surface transportation programs,
and reforms in the National Flood Insurance
Program. Reflecting the enactment of MAP21 in the MSR decreases spending relative to
the February Budget by a negligible amount
in 2012 and increases spending relative to the
Budget by $2 billion over the next 10 years.
ESTIMATING CHANGES
Estimating changes are due to factors other
than enacted legislation or changes in policy.
These result from changes in economic assumptions, discussed earlier in this Review,
and changes in technical factors. Relative to
the Budget estimate, economic and technical
changes decrease estimated outlays for 2012
by $144 billion while also decreasing outlays by an additional $743 billion from 2013
through 2022.
Discretionary appropriations. Outlays
for discretionary appropriations decrease
by $55 billion in 2012 but increase by $24
billion over the next 10 years relative to
the Budget as a result of technical revisions. These changes reflect lower outlays in
2012 compared to the February Budget for
both security and non-security discretionary programs. The Departments of Defense,
Education, Homeland Security, Housing and
Urban Development, and Energy now expect
significantly lower discretionary outlays in
2012 than were projected in the Budget due
to lower-than-expected spending so far this
fiscal year. As obligations previously expected to outlay in 2012 shift into 2013 and later
years, spending for security programs rises
by a total of $12 billion over 2013 through
2022, while spending for non-security related programs increases by $13 billion over
this period.

17

18
Medicaid. Economic and technical revisions increase projected Federal outlays for
Medicaid by $4 billion in 2012, but decrease
outlays by $123 billion over the next 10 years
from 2013 to 2022 relative to the February
Budget estimates. The large decrease stems
primarily from lower projected benefit payments in 2012 and 2013 and slightly slower
projected growth throughout the 10-year budget window, offset by slight projected growth
increases in the market basket and price indices used to calculate Medicaid benefits relative to the February Budget.
Social Security. Estimating changes reduce outlays for Social Security by $4 billion
in 2012 and by an additional $110 billion over
the next 10 years. Lower spending in both the
Old Age and Survivors’ Insurance (OASI) and
Disability Insurance (DI) programs is partially due to lower cost-of-living adjustments
(COLAs) starting in 2013 than were assumed
in the February Budget. Technical changes
have an even more pronounced effect on the
lowered spending projections, most notably
due to fewer-than-expected OASI beneficiaries in recent months and lower revised estimates of disability incidence than assumed in
the February Budget.
Medicare. Technical changes reduce outlays for Medicare by $9 billion in 2012 and
by an additional $121 billion over the next
10 years, which is offset in part by economic
changes, resulting in a net reduction over
2013 to 2022 of $97 billion. Projected outlays
for all three parts of the Medicare program
decrease significantly over the next 10 years
due to these changes. The spending decrease
in Part A is a result of revised cost and utilization estimates based on updated historical data. The Part A reduction is partially
offset by higher projected outlays due to revised economic assumptions, most notably
due to decreased productivity and increased
CPI-W assumptions relative to the February
Budget. The decrease in Medicare Part B
spending is also due in large part to revised
estimates of cost and utilization and a lower
estimate of the ten-year cost of a zero percent
physician payment update, offset somewhat
by economic changes to productivity and
CPI-W assumptions. The decrease in spending for Medicare Part D is due to lower drug
prices and revised enrollment assumptions

MID-SESSION REVIEW

compared to the Budget, partially offset by
lower estimated manufacturer rebates under
proposed law.
Unemployment compensation. Changes
in economic and technical assumptions decrease outlays for unemployment benefits by
$13 billion in 2012. Over 2013 through 2022,
outlays are down by an additional $28 billion
relative to the February Budget estimate. The
reduction is driven by lower-than-expected
insured unemployment rates as well as lower actual unemployment rates in 2012 than
had been assumed in the February Budget.
Additionally, the projection of the unemployment rate is lower from 2013 through 2017
than in the President’s Budget—averaging
6.7 percent in the MSR rather than 7.3 percent in the Budget—which contributes significantly to the downward revision in spending
throughout the budget horizon.
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
Program (SNAP). Outlays for SNAP decrease by $4 billion in 2012 and $26 billion
over the next 10 years due to economic and
technical factors. The technical changes
arise from lower actual participation in the
program than was assumed in the February
Budget, while economic changes are due to a
lower assumed cost of food in the Thrifty Food
Plan and lower assumed unemployment relative to the Budget’s assumptions.
FHA-Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund.
Technical changes lower net spending for
the mandatory portion of the FHA-Mutual
Mortgage Insurance Fund by $2 billion in
2012 and by an additional $19 billion relative
to the Budget over the next 10 years. This reduction is attributable to receipt of mortgage
servicing settlement funds and estimated
gains to be realized upon the sale of long-term
Treasury investments in the short term and
increased projections of interest earnings in
the outyears.
Tennessee Valley Authority. Spending
for the Tennessee Valley Authority (TVA) is
virtually unchanged in 2012 but is revised
downward by $16 billion over 2013 through
2022 to correct an error in the February
Budget, which had failed to properly reflect
the use of TVA’s excess revenues to pay down
outstanding agency debt.

EXPENDITURES

Support for Government Sponsored
Enterprises (GSEs). Lower draws requested by Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac from
Treasury in 2012 under the Preferred Stock
Purchase Agreement, net of dividends, result
in $16 billion lower projected outlays for 2012
than in the February Budget. Gross draws
by the GSEs for 2012 are now expected to be
$23 billion, down from $40 billion in February.
Dividends paid by the GSEs are virtually unchanged from February, while draws net of
dividends fall from $21 billion to $5 billion.
Student loan programs. Technical changes in student loans increase spending by $3
billion in 2012 and by an additional $10 billion
over the next 10 years. The majority of the
change is a result of downward revisions in
loan volume relative to the February Budget,
which reduce negative subsidy receipts.
Deposit Insurance Fund.
Technical
changes lower deposit insurance spending in
2012 by $6 billion, but raise spending over
2013 through 2022 by $18 billion. The shortterm reduction in spending is attributable to
fewer bank failures experienced to date than

19
were projected in the February Budget. The
outyear spending increase can be attributed
to a reduction in the projection of future bank
failures relative to the February Budget,
which lowers the future premiums the Fund
is expected to receive, more than offsetting
the lower outlays required as a result of fewer
failures.
Temporary investments to create jobs
and jumpstart growth. The delay in enactment of the President’s proposals to create
jobs and jumpstart growth reduces outlays in
2012 by $32 billion relative to the February
Budget. These outlays shift into 2013 and
2014, increasing spending in those years by
$30 billion and $2 billion respectively.
Net interest. Excluding the debt service
associated with enacted legislation and policy
changes, outlays for net interest are projected
to decrease from February by $6 billion in
2012 and by an additional $422 billion over
2013 to 2022. These reductions are virtually
all due to the effect of lower short- and longterm Treasury interest rates over the next few
years in the revised MSR economic forecast.

20

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Table 5. CHANGE IN OUTLAYS
(In billions of dollars)
2013–
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2013–
2017 2022
February estimate ���������������������������������������� 3,796 3,803 3,883 4,060 4,329 4,532 4,728 5,004 5,262 5,537 5,820
Changes due to enacted legislation and
other changes to policy:
Middle Class Tax Relief and Job Creation
Job Act of 2012 �������������������������������������
Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st
Century Act of 2012 �����������������������������
Other policy changes ��������������������������������
Debt service ����������������������������������������������
Subtotal, enacted legislation and policy
changes ������������������������������������������������������

1

–5

1

–1

–1

*

3

4

3

3

3

–6

9

–*
*
*

–*
*
–*

–1
*
–*

–1
*
–1

–*
*
–1

*
*
–1

1
*
–2

1
*
–1

1
*
–1

1
–*
–1

2
–*
–1

–3
*
–3

2
*
–9

1

–6

–1

–2

–2

–1

2

3

2

3

4

–12

2

–38
–16
4
–4
–9
–13

–25
8
–7
–7
–15
–11

13
3
–6
–8
–12
–8

15
2
–7
–9
–8
–5

7
*
–9
–10
–10
–3

1
1
–12
–11
–8
–1

–*
*
–14
–11
–10
–1

*
–*
–15
–12
–10
*

–*
–*
–17
–12
–10
*

–*
–*
–18
–15
–8
*

*
–*
–18
–15
–7
*

Changes due to reestimates:
Discretionary appropriations:
Security �������������������������������������������������
Non-Security �����������������������������������������
Medicaid ��������������������������������������������������
Social Security ������������������������������������������
Medicare ���������������������������������������������������
Unemployment compensation ����������������
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
Program �����������������������������������������������
Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund ����������
Tennessee Valley Authority ���������������������
Purchases of GSE preferred stock �����������
Student loan programs ����������������������������
Deposit Insurance Fund ��������������������������
Temporary investments to create jobs
and jumpstart growth ��������������������������
Other programs ���������������������������������������
Net interest 1 ���������������������������������������������
Subtotal, reestimates �����������������������������������

–32
–3
–6
–144

30
2
–19
–43

2 ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
32
32
1
–3
4
1
3
*
1
2
2
5
13
–33
–43
–53
–55
–47
–44
–41
–41
–45 –203 –422
–52
–63
–79
–87
–81
–81
–83
–86
–88 –324 –743

Total change in outlays ������������������������������������

–143

–49

–53

–4
–1
–2
–4
–4
–4
–3
–2
–2
–2
–2 –16 –26
–2
–*
–*
–1
–1
–2
–2
–2
–3
–3
–4
–4 –19
–*
–1
–1
–1
–2
–2
–2
–2
–2
–2
–2
–7 –16
–16 ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
3
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
1
2
4
10
–6
2
*
*
2
3
4
5
1
1
*
7
18

–65

–81

–88

–79

–78

–80

–83

–84 –336 –741

Mid-Session estimate ����������������������������������� 3,653 3,754 3,830 3,995 4,248 4,444 4,649 4,926 5,181 5,455 5,735
*$500 million or less.
1
Includes debt service on all reestimates.
2
Includes debt service.

12
12
13
13
–41 –123
–45 –110
–52 –97
–29 –28

SUMMARY TABLES

21

Table S–1. BUDGET TOTALS
(In billions of dollars and as a percent of GDP)
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

20132017

22

Totals
2011

20132022

Budget Totals in Billions of Dollars:
Receipts ����������������������������������������������������������������� 2,303 2,442 2,764 3,169 3,400 3,633 3,867 4,107 4,348 4,577 4,827 5,083 16,832 39,774
Outlays ������������������������������������������������������������������ 3,603 3,653 3,754 3,830 3,995 4,248 4,444 4,649 4,926 5,181 5,455 5,735 20,271 46,218
Deficit ���������������������������������������������������������������
1,300 1,211
991
661
595
615
576
543
578
604
627
652 3,439 6,444
Debt held by the public ����������������������������������������� 10,128 11,414 12,572 13,375 14,112 14,860 15,556 16,213 16,896 17,595 18,318 19,070
Debt net of financial assets ���������������������������������� 9,170 10,363 11,345 12,004 12,599 13,214 13,791 14,333 14,911 15,515 16,143 16,795
Gross domestic product (GDP) ��������������������������������� 14,953 15,538 16,226 17,012 18,009 19,071 20,172 21,258 22,256 23,261 24,296 25,383
Budget Totals as a Percent of GDP:
Receipts �����������������������������������������������������������������
Outlays ������������������������������������������������������������������
Deficit ���������������������������������������������������������������
Debt held by the public �����������������������������������������
Debt net of financial assets ����������������������������������

15.4%
24.1%
8.7%
67.7%
61.3%

15.7%
23.5%
7.8%
73.5%
66.7%

17.0%
23.1%
6.1%
77.5%
69.9%

18.6%
22.5%
3.9%
78.6%
70.6%

18.9%
22.2%
3.3%
78.4%
70.0%

19.0%
22.3%
3.2%
77.9%
69.3%

19.2%
22.0%
2.9%
77.1%
68.4%

19.3%
21.9%
2.6%
76.3%
67.4%

19.5%
22.1%
2.6%
75.9%
67.0%

19.7%
22.3%
2.6%
75.6%
66.7%

19.9%
22.5%
2.6%
75.4%
66.4%

20.0%
22.6%
2.6%
75.1%
66.2%

18.6%
22.4%
3.9%

19.1%
22.3%
3.2%

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Table S–2. EFFECT OF MID-SESSION REVIEW PROPOSALS ON PROJECTED DEFICITS
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in billions of dollars)

Projected deficits in the adjusted baseline 1 ������� 1,197
Percent of GDP ���������������������������������������������������������� 7.7%

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

840
5.2%

705
4.1%

705
3.9%

766
4.0%

764
3.8%

752
3.5%

819
3.7%

884
3.8%

946
3.9%

1,126
4.4%

3,780
4.2%

8,306
4.0%

13

148

29

12

3

1

1

1

1

*

–*

192

195

1

–4

–14

–29

–35

–47

–53

–61

–70

–75

–128

–127

–513

.........
.........

–54
–44

–58
–86

–71
–85

–85
–89

–96
–94

–103
–99

–110
–104

–117
–110

–125
–114

–133
–118

–364
–398

–952
–943

......... .........

.........

.........

–26

–92

–96

–98

–101

–104

–107

–117

–624

.........
.........
–*
1

*
5
7
–89

–*
1
3
–154

–1
–*
–5
–191

–2
–*
–6
–243

–3
–*
–7
–339

–4
–*
–6
–360

–4
–*
–5
–383

–4
–*
–3
–406

–5
–*
–7
–429

–5
–*
–7
–498

–6
6
–9
–1,016

–28
6
–37
–3,092

Surface transportation reauthorization:
Investments in surface transportation ��������������� .........
Reductions in overseas contingency operations ��� .........
Net cost of surface transportation
reauthorization ��������������������������������������������� .........

*
–16

4
–57

9
–75

13
–61

18
.........

24
.........

22
.........

15
.........

11
.........

8
.........

45
–210

125
–210

–16

–54

–67

–48

18

24

22

15

11

8

–165

–85

Tax cuts for families, individuals, and
businesses 3 ���������������������������������������������������������� .........

37

38

30

31

32

34

36

38

39

42

168

357

Debt service and indirect interest effects �������

–*

–*

–*

–4

–13

–26

–41

–56

–72

–90

–110

–44

–412

Total proposals in the 2013 Mid-Session
Review ��������������������������������������������������������������

13

79

–141

–219

–270

–314

–342

–379

–424

–469

–558

–865

–3,038

71
*

96
1

105
5

109
11

109
17

109
24

109
29

109
35

109
41

38
46

490
34

966
209

Proposals in the 2013 Mid-Session Review: 2
Short-term measures for jobs growth ��������������
Net deficit reduction proposals:
Health and other mandatory initiatives �������������
Allow Bush tax cuts to expire for high-income
taxpayers ����������������������������������������������������������
Other revenue proposals ��������������������������������������
Reductions in overseas contingency operations
not reserved for surface transportation ����������
Proposed program integrity cap adjustment for
IRS and Unemployment Insurance, including
mandatory savings �������������������������������������������
Proposed BCA disaster relief cap adjustment ���
Outlay effects of discretionary policy ������������������
Total net deficit reduction proposals ����������������

Resulting deficits in 2013 Mid-Session Review �� 1,211
Percent of GDP ���������������������������������������������������������� 7.8%

71

97

110

120

127

133

139

145

150

84

524

1,175

991
6.1%

661
3.9%

595
3.3%

615
3.2%

576
2.9%

543
2.6%

578
2.6%

604
2.6%

627
2.6%

652
2.6%

3,439
3.9%

6,444
3.2%

* $500 million or less.
1
See Tables S–4 and S–8 for information on the adjusted baseline.
2
For total deficit reduction since January 2011, see Table S–3.
3
Includes the effects of continuing certain expiring provisions through calendar year 2013.

23

Effect of replacing Joint Committee
enforcement with 2013 Mid-Session Review
deficit reduction proposals:
Programmatic effects ������������������������������������������������ .........
Debt service �������������������������������������������������������������� .........
Total effect of replacing Joint Committee
enforcement ����������������������������������������������������� .........

SUMMARY TABLES

Totals
2012

Table S–3. DEFICIT REDUCTION SINCE JANUARY 2011
(Deficit reduction (–) or increase (+) in billions of dollars)
2013–
2022

Enacted appropriations 1����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

–696

–676

Budget Control Act (BCA) discretionary caps for 2012 through 2021 2���������������������������

–901

–1,028

PAYGO legislation enacted during the 1st Session of the 112th Congress 3�������������������

–7

–11

Legislation enacted to date in the 2nd Session of the 112th Congress ��������������������������

78

–12

2013 Mid-Session Review:
Short-term measures for job growth ����������������������������������������������������������������������������
Tax cuts for families, individuals, and businesses 4������������������������������������������������������
Reauthorize surface transportation �����������������������������������������������������������������������������

208
315
117

195
357
125

Health and other mandatory initiatives:
Health savings ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Other mandatory savings ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Other mandatory initiatives ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, health and other mandatory initiatives ����������������������������������������������
Expiration of high income tax cuts ������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Other revenue proposals �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Cap Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) funding ����������������������������������������������

–264
–181
61
–384
–819
–825
–727

–326
–254
67
–513
–952
–943
–834

Proposed program integrity cap adjustment for IRS and
Unemployment Insurance, including mandatory savings �������������������������������������
Proposed BCA disaster relief cap adjustment ������������������������������������������������������������
Outlay effects of discretionary policy ���������������������������������������������������������������������������

–23
6
–31

–28
6
–37

Debt service �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

–557

–746

Total deficit reduction since January 2011 �����������������������������������������������������������������

–4,247

–5,098

Memorandum, revenue and outlay effects:
Enacted outlay reductions and 2013 MSR spending proposals ����������������������������������
Enacted receipt increases and 2013 MSR revenue proposals �����������������������������������

–3,047
–1,200

–3,625
–1,472
MID-SESSION REVIEW

1
Includes enactment of 2011 full-year appropriations and enactment of 2012 full-year OCO appropriations. Enactment of 2011 appropriations savings totaled through 2021.
2
Includes program integrity and the cap adjustment for proposed disaster relief.
3
Savings totaled through 2021.
4
Includes the effects of continuing certain expiring provisions through calendar year 2013.

24

2012–
2021

Table S–4. ADJUSTED BASELINE BY CATEGORY1
(In billions of dollars)
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

Outlays:
699
600
1,300

682
582
1,264

672
577
1,248

678
551
1,229

685
546
1,231

693
548
1,241

706
555
1,261

721
562
1,283

736
574
1,310

753
586
1,338

769
598
1,367

787
611
1,398

3,434
2,776
6,210

7,200
5,706
12,906

Mandatory programs:
Social Security ��������������������������������������������������
Medicare2 ����������������������������������������������������������
Medicaid �����������������������������������������������������������
Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)5 ��������
Other mandatory programs2 ����������������������������
Subtotal, mandatory programs ��������������������
Net interest �����������������������������������������������������������
Adjustments for disaster costs6 ����������������������������
Joint Committee enforcement ������������������������������
Total outlays �����������������������������������������������������

725
480
275
–38
631
2,073
230
.........
.........
3,603

769
469
259
35
626
2,157
218
*
.........
3,639

813
513
276
12
580
2,193
228
2
–71
3,600

859
551
331
8
583
2,332
275
5
–96
3,745

908
577
364
5
609
2,463
346
7
–105
3,942

960
627
393
2
661
2,643
432
8
–109
4,215

1,015
650
419
1
671
2,756
518
9
–109
4,434

1,074
672
444
*
676
2,866
600
9
–109
4,648

1,137
737
472
*
715
3,062
673
10
–109
4,945

1,204
796
501
*
743
3,244
742
10
–109
5,225

1,272
859
532
.........
792
3,456
804
10
–109
5,527

1,346
955
567
.........
844
3,712
869
10
–38
5,951

4,555
2,918
1,783
29
3,103
12,387
1,798
31
–490
19,936

10,588
6,936
4,299
30
6,873
28,726
5,486
80
–966
46,232

Receipts:
Individual income taxes ����������������������������������������
Corporation income taxes �������������������������������������

1,091
181

1,126
251

1,246
336

1,376
373

1,492
398

1,617
417

1,746
438

1,870
455

1,991
468

2,115
480

2,242
494

2,373
507

7,478
1,961

18,068
4,365

Social insurance and retirement receipts:
Social Security payroll taxes ��������������������������
Medicare payroll taxes ������������������������������������
Unemployment insurance �������������������������������
Other retirement ����������������������������������������������
Excise taxes �����������������������������������������������������������
Estate and gift taxes ���������������������������������������������
Customs duties ������������������������������������������������������
Deposits of earnings, Federal Reserve System ����
Other miscellaneous receipts �������������������������������
Total receipts ����������������������������������������������������

566
188
56
8
72
7
30
83
20
2,303

572
201
58
8
79
13
30
80
24
2,442

673
207
59
9
86
12
33
78
21
2,760

740
224
56
9
95
13
36
65
52
3,040

777
237
56
10
100
14
38
48
67
3,237

829
254
57
10
102
15
41
38
70
3,449

876
269
56
11
107
16
44
36
73
3,671

929
286
55
12
115
17
46
36
76
3,896

979
302
55
12
130
18
50
39
82
4,126

1,024
316
55
13
136
19
53
43
88
4,340

1,083
334
56
15
143
20
57
45
94
4,582

1,138
352
59
16
152
21
60
46
100
4,825

3,896
1,191
284
49
489
69
192
265
282
16,157

9,049
2,779
563
118
1,165
164
459
475
721
37,926

Deficit �����������������������������������������������������������������������
Net interest �����������������������������������������������������������
Primary deficit ���������������������������������������������������

1,300
230
1,070

1,197
218
979

840
228
612

705
275
431

705
346
359

766
432
334

764
518
246

752
600
152

819
673
146

884
742
142

946
804
141

1,126
869
258

3,780
1,798
1,981

8,306
5,486
2,820

On-budget deficit ���������������������������������������������������
Off-budget deficit/surplus (–) ��������������������������������

1,367
–67

1,259
–62

872
–32

733
–28

723
–18

788
–23

784
–20

773
–22

836
–17

888
–4

947
–2

1,117
9

3,901
–121

8,462
–156

25

Appropriated (“discretionary”) programs:2
Defense3 ������������������������������������������������������������
Non-defense4 �����������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, appropriated programs �����������������

SUMMARY TABLES

Totals
2011

Table S–4. ADJUSTED BASELINE BY CATEGORY1—Continued
(In billions of dollars)
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

Memorandum, budget authority for
appropriated programs:2
Defense3 �����������������������������������������������������������������
Non-defense4 ���������������������������������������������������������

710
507

670
523

664
509

676
519

688
529

702
539

717
551

733
563

748
576

765
589

781
601

800
616

3,446
2,648

7,273
5,593

Total, appropriated funding �����������������������������

1,217

1,193

1,173

1,195

1,217

1,241

1,268

1,296

1,324

1,353

1,382

1,417

6,094

12,866

26

Totals
2011

* $500 million or less.
1
See Table S–8 for information on adjustments to the Budget Enforcement Act (BEA) baseline.
2
Does not include effects of Joint Committee enforcement.
3
Reflects revision in security category to consist of accounts in defense function (050).
4
Reflects revision in nonsecurity category to consist of accounts not in the defense function (050).
5
Outlays for TARP result from obligations incurred through October 3, 2010 for the Home Affordable Modification Program and other TARP programs.
6
These amounts represent a placeholder for major disasters requiring Federal assistance for relief and reconstruction. Such assistance might be provided in the form
of discretionary or mandatory outlays or tax relief. These amounts are included as outlays for convenience.

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Table S–5. PROPOSED BUDGET BY CATEGORY
(In billions of dollars)
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

Outlays:
838
462
1,300

830
434
1,264

826
418
1,245

781
395
1,176

765
387
1,152

764
386
1,150

773
391
1,164

786
397
1,183

803
405
1,208

820
415
1,236

837
420
1,257

856
430
1,287

3,909
1,977
5,886

8,012
4,045
12,057

Mandatory programs:
Social Security ��������������������������������������������������
Medicare �����������������������������������������������������������
Medicaid �����������������������������������������������������������
Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)2 ��������
Other mandatory programs �����������������������������
Subtotal, mandatory programs ��������������������
Net interest �����������������������������������������������������������
Adjustments for disaster costs3 ����������������������������
Total outlays �����������������������������������������������������

725
480
275
–38
631
2,073
230
.........
3,603

769
469
259
35
638
2,169
219
*
3,653

813
508
276
12
670
2,279
229
2
3,754

859
539
331
8
636
2,373
276
5
3,830

908
562
361
5
652
2,489
347
7
3,995

960
608
390
2
701
2,661
429
8
4,248

1,015
626
411
1
709
2,762
510
9
4,444

1,074
644
436
*
721
2,874
583
9
4,649

1,136
706
464
*
755
3,061
646
10
4,926

1,203
758
493
*
776
3,231
705
10
5,181

1,271
813
525
.........
822
3,432
756
10
5,455

1,345
901
559
.........
828
3,634
804
10
5,735

4,554
2,843
1,769
29
3,370
12,565
1,790
31
20,271

10,585
6,665
4,246
30
7,272
28,797
5,284
80
46,218

Receipts:
Individual income taxes ����������������������������������������
Corporation income taxes �������������������������������������

1,091
181

1,126
251

1,292
294

1,464
402

1,600
425

1,744
442

1,890
463

2,025
479

2,158
491

2,292
503

2,432
515

2,575
527

7,990
2,026

19,472
4,542

Social insurance and retirement receipts:
Social Security payroll taxes ��������������������������
Medicare payroll taxes ������������������������������������
Unemployment insurance �������������������������������
Other retirement ����������������������������������������������
Excise taxes �����������������������������������������������������������
Estate and gift taxes ���������������������������������������������
Customs duties ������������������������������������������������������
Deposits of earnings, Federal Reserve System ����
Other miscellaneous receipts �������������������������������
Total receipts ����������������������������������������������������

566
188
56
8
72
7
30
83
20
2,303

572
201
58
8
79
13
30
80
24
2,442

673
207
57
10
86
13
33
78
21
2,764

741
225
55
11
96
23
36
65
52
3,169

776
237
67
12
102
25
38
48
67
3,400

828
255
71
13
104
27
41
38
71
3,633

875
270
65
13
109
29
44
36
73
3,867

928
287
66
14
117
32
46
36
77
4,107

978
303
65
15
132
34
50
39
82
4,348

1,022
317
68
16
138
37
53
43
88
4,577

1,082
335
65
17
146
40
57
45
94
4,827

1,138
353
68
18
154
43
60
47
100
5,083

3,893
1,194
314
59
497
118
192
266
284
16,832

9,040
2,790
645
138
1,184
303
458
475
726
39,774

Deficit �����������������������������������������������������������������������
Net interest �����������������������������������������������������������
Primary deficit/surplus (–) ������������������������������

1,300
230
1,070

1,211
219
992

991
229
762

661
276
386

595
347
248

615
429
186

576
510
67

543
583
–40

578
646
–68

604
705
–101

627
756
–128

652
804
–152

3,439
1,790
1,649

6,444
5,284
1,160

On-budget deficit ���������������������������������������������������
Off-budget deficit/surplus (–) ��������������������������������

1,367
–67

1,277
–66

1,032
–41

689
–28

611
–16

633
–18

595
–18

561
–18

596
–17

608
–4

630
–2

644
9

3,559
–121

6,597
–153

27

Appropriated (“discretionary”) programs:1
Security ������������������������������������������������������������
Nonsecurity ������������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, appropriated programs �����������������

SUMMARY TABLES

Totals
2011

Table S–5. PROPOSED BUDGET BY CATEGORY—Continued
(In billions of dollars)

Memorandum, budget authority for appropriated
programs:1
Security ������������������������������������������������������������������
Nonsecurity �����������������������������������������������������������
Total, appropriated funding �����������������������������

847
370
1,217

2012

816
377
1,193

2013

788
358
1,146

2014

743
366
1,108

2015

756
373
1,129

2016

769
381
1,150

2017

785
389
1,174

2018

802
398
1,199

2019

819
407
1,225

2020

836
416
1,251

2021

853
425
1,277

2022

874
435
1,309

2013–
2017

3,841
1,866
5,707

2013–
2022

28

Totals
2011

8,023
3,946
11,969

* $500 million or less.
1
Discretionary spending levels other than overseas contingency operations reflect the budget authority caps under the Budget Control Act of 2011. The split of discretionary spending between security and nonsecurity after 2013 is based on increasing budget authority in each category by the growth rate in the aggregate discretionary
cap.
2
Outlays for TARP result from obligations incurred through October 3, 2010 for the Home Affordable Modification Program and other TARP programs.
3
These amounts represent a placeholder for major disasters requiring Federal assistance for relief and reconstruction. Such assistance might be provided in the form
of discretionary or mandatory outlays or tax relief. These amounts are included as outlays for convenience.

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Table S–6. PROPOSED BUDGET BY CATEGORY AS A PERCENT OF GDP
(As a percent of GDP)
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

Outlays:
5.6
3.1
8.7

5.3
2.8
8.1

5.1
2.6
7.7

4.6
2.3
6.9

4.2
2.1
6.4

4.0
2.0
6.0

3.8
1.9
5.8

3.7
1.9
5.6

3.6
1.8
5.4

3.5
1.8
5.3

Mandatory programs:
Social Security ���������������������������������������������������������
Medicare ������������������������������������������������������������������
Medicaid ������������������������������������������������������������������
Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) 2 ���������������
Other mandatory programs ������������������������������������
Subtotal, mandatory programs ���������������������������
Net interest ������������������������������������������������������������������
Adjustments for disaster costs 3 �����������������������������������
Total outlays ������������������������������������������������������������

4.8
3.2
1.8
–0.3
4.2
13.9
1.5
.........
24.1

4.9
3.0
1.7
0.2
4.1
14.0
1.4
*
23.5

5.0
3.1
1.7
0.1
4.1
14.0
1.4
*
23.1

5.0
3.2
1.9
*
3.7
14.0
1.6
*
22.5

5.0
3.1
2.0
*
3.6
13.8
1.9
*
22.2

5.0
3.2
2.0
*
3.7
14.0
2.3
*
22.3

5.0
3.1
2.0
*
3.5
13.7
2.5
*
22.0

5.1
3.0
2.1
*
3.4
13.5
2.7
*
21.9

5.1
3.2
2.1
*
3.4
13.8
2.9
*
22.1

5.2
3.3
2.1
*
3.3
13.9
3.0
*
22.3

Receipts:
Individual income taxes �����������������������������������������������
Corporation income taxes ��������������������������������������������

7.3
1.2

7.2
1.6

8.0
1.8

8.6
2.4

8.9
2.4

9.1
2.3

9.4
2.3

9.5
2.3

9.7
2.2

9.9
2.2

10.0
2.1

Social insurance and retirement receipts:
Social Security payroll taxes ���������������������������������
Medicare payroll taxes �������������������������������������������
Unemployment insurance ��������������������������������������
Other retirement �����������������������������������������������������
Excise taxes ������������������������������������������������������������������
Estate and gift taxes ����������������������������������������������������
Customs duties �������������������������������������������������������������
Deposits of earnings, Federal Reserve System �����������
Other miscellaneous receipts ��������������������������������������
Total receipts �����������������������������������������������������������

3.8
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.5
*
0.2
0.6
0.1
15.4

3.7
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.2
15.7

4.1
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.5
0.1
17.0

4.4
1.3
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.3
18.6

4.3
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
18.9

4.3
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.4
19.0

4.3
1.3
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.4
19.2

4.4
1.4
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.4
19.3

4.4
1.4
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
19.5

4.4
1.4
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
19.7

Deficit ������������������������������������������������������������������������������

8.7

7.8

6.1

3.9

3.3

3.2

2.9

2.6

2.6

Net interest ������������������������������������������������������������������
Primary deficit/surplus (–) �������������������������������������

1.5
7.2

1.4
6.4

1.4
4.7

1.6
2.3

1.9
1.4

2.3
1.0

2.5
0.3

2.7
–0.2

On-budget deficit ����������������������������������������������������������
Off-budget deficit/surplus (–) ���������������������������������������

9.1
–0.4

8.2
–0.4

6.4
–0.3

4.0
–0.2

3.4
–0.1

3.3
–0.1

2.9
–0.1

2.6
–0.1

3.4
1.7
5.2

3.4
1.7
5.1

4.4
2.2
6.6

3.9
2.0
5.9

5.2
5.3
3.3
3.6
2.2
2.2
......... .........
3.4
3.3
14.1
14.3
3.1
3.2
*
*
22.5
22.6

5.0
3.1
1.9
*
3.7
13.9
1.9
*
22.4

5.1
3.2
2.0
*
3.5
13.9
2.5
*
22.3

10.1
2.1

8.8
2.2

9.3
2.2

4.5
1.4
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
19.9

4.5
1.4
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
20.0

4.3
1.3
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.3
18.6

4.4
1.3
0.3
0.1
0.6
0.1
0.2
0.2
0.3
19.1

2.6

2.6

2.6

3.9

3.2

2.9
–0.3

3.0
–0.4

3.1
–0.5

3.2
–0.6

1.9
1.9

2.5
0.8

2.7
–0.1

2.6
–*

2.6
–*

2.5
*

4.0
–0.1

3.3
–0.1

29

Appropriated (“discretionary”) programs: 1
Security �������������������������������������������������������������������
Nonsecurity ������������������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, appropriated programs ������������������������

SUMMARY TABLES

Averages
2011

Table S–6. PROPOSED BUDGET BY CATEGORY AS A PERCENT OF GDP—Continued
(As a percent of GDP)

Memorandum, budget authority for appropriated
programs:
Security �������������������������������������������������������������������������
Nonsecurity �����������������������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, appropriated programs ���������������������������

5.7
2.5
8.1

2012

5.3
2.4
7.7

2013

4.9
2.2
7.1

2014

4.4
2.1
6.5

2015

4.2
2.1
6.3

2016

4.0
2.0
6.0

2017

3.9
1.9
5.8

2018

3.8
1.9
5.6

2019

3.7
1.8
5.5

2020

3.6
1.8
5.4

2021

3.5
1.7
5.3

2022

3.4
1.7
5.2

2013–
2017

4.3
2.1
6.3

30

Averages
2011

2013–
2022

3.9
1.9
5.9

*0.05 percent of GDP or less.
1
Discretionary spending levels other than overseas contingency operations reflect the budget authority caps under the Budget Control Act of 2011. The split of discretionary spending between security and nonsecurity after 2013 is based on increasing budget authority in each category by the growth rate in the aggregate discretionary
cap.
2
Outlays for TARP result from obligations incurred through October 3, 2010 for the Home Affordable Modification Program and other TARP programs.
3
These amounts represent a placeholder for major disasters requiring Federal assistance for relief and reconstruction. Such assistance might be provided in the form
of discretionary or mandatory outlays or tax relief. These amounts are included as outlays for convenience.

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Table S–7. PROPOSED BUDGET IN POPULATION- AND INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS
(In billions of constant dollars, adjusted for population growth)
2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Outlays:
Appropriated (“discretionary”) programs:1
Security ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Nonsecurity ���������������������������������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, appropriated programs ���������������������������������������

826
418
1,245

759
384
1,143

721
365
1,086

699
353
1,052

686
347
1,033

676
341
1,018

670
338
1,008

663
336
999

656
329
985

650
327
977

Mandatory programs:
Social Security ������������������������������������������������������������������������
Medicare ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Medicaid ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)2 �������������������������������
Other mandatory programs ���������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, mandatory programs ������������������������������������������
Net interest ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Adjustments for disaster costs3 ��������������������������������������������������
Total outlays ���������������������������������������������������������������������������

813
508
276
12
670
2,279
229
2
3,754

834
524
322
8
618
2,306
268
5
3,721

856
530
341
5
615
2,347
327
7
3,767

878
557
357
2
642
2,436
393
8
3,889

901
555
365
1
629
2,451
452
8
3,944

924
554
375
*
620
2,473
501
8
4,000

947
589
387
*
629
2,553
539
8
4,107

972
612
399
*
627
2,611
570
8
4,188

996
637
411
.........
644
2,688
592
8
4,273

1,022
685
425
.........
629
2,760
611
8
4,355

Receipts:
Individual income taxes ��������������������������������������������������������������
Corporation income taxes �����������������������������������������������������������

1,292
294

1,422
390

1,509
401

1,597
405

1,677
411

1,742
412

1,799
410

1,853
407

1,905
403

1,955
400

Social insurance and retirement receipts
Social Security payroll taxes ������������������������������������������������
Medicare payroll taxes ����������������������������������������������������������
Unemployment insurance �����������������������������������������������������
Other retirement ��������������������������������������������������������������������
Excise taxes ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Estate and gift taxes �������������������������������������������������������������������
Customs duties ����������������������������������������������������������������������������
Deposits of earnings, Federal Reserve System ��������������������������
Other miscellaneous receipts �����������������������������������������������������
Total receipts ��������������������������������������������������������������������������

673
207
57
10
86
13
33
78
21
2,764

720
218
53
11
93
22
34
63
51
3,078

732
224
63
12
96
24
36
46
63
3,206

758
233
65
12
95
25
38
35
65
3,326

777
240
57
12
96
26
39
32
65
3,433

798
247
57
12
100
27
40
31
66
3,533

815
253
54
12
110
29
41
33
68
3,625

826
256
55
13
112
30
43
34
71
3,699

848
263
51
13
114
31
45
35
74
3,782

864
268
51
14
117
32
46
35
76
3,860

Deficit ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Net interest ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Primary deficit/surplus (–) ����������������������������������������������������
On-budget deficit �������������������������������������������������������������������������
Off-budget deficit/surplus (–) ������������������������������������������������������

991
229
762
1,032
–41

643
268
375
669
–27

561
327
234
576
–15

563
393
170
580
–16

512
452
59
528
–16

467
501
–34
483
–16

482
539
–57
497
–14

488
570
–82
491
–3

491
592
–101
493
–2

495
611
–115
489
7

SUMMARY TABLES

2013

31

Table S–7. PROPOSED BUDGET IN POPULATION- AND
INFLATION-ADJUSTED DOLLARS—Continued
2013
Memorandum, budget authority for appropriated programs:1
Security ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
788
Nonsecurity ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������
358
Subtotal, appropriated programs ������������������������������������������
1,146
Memorandum, index of population growth and inflation ������

1.00

2014

2015

2016

2017

32

(In billions of constant dollars, adjusted for population growth)
2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

721
355
1,077

713
352
1,064

704
348
1,053

697
345
1,042

690
342
1,032

683
339
1,022

675
336
1,011

668
333
1,001

663
330
994

1.03

1.06

1.09

1.13

1.16

1.20

1.24

1.28

1.32

*$500 million or less.
1
Discretionary spending levels other than overseas contingency operations reflect the budget authority caps under the Budget Control Act of 2011. The split of discretionary spending between security and nonsecurity after 2013 is based on increasing budget authority in each category by the growth rate in the aggregate discretionary
cap.
2
Outlays for TARP result from obligations incurred through October 3, 2010 for the Home Affordable Modification Program and other TARP programs.
3
These amounts represent a placeholder for major disasters requiring Federal assistance for relief and reconstruction. Such assistance might be provided in the form
of discretionary or mandatory outlays or tax relief. These amounts are included as outlays for convenience.

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Table S–8. BRIDGE FROM BUDGET ENFORCEMENT ACT BASELINE TO ADJUSTED BASELINE
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in billions of dollars)

2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
BEA baseline deficit ������������������������������������������������������������������� 1,300 1,197
Adjustments for current policy:
Index to inflation the 2011 parameters of the AMT �����������������
Continue the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts ���������������������������������������
Extend estate, gift, and generation-skipping transfer taxes at
current parameters ����������������������������������������������������������������
Prevent reduction in Medicare physician payments ����������������
Reflect incremental cost of funding existing Pell maximum
grant award ����������������������������������������������������������������������������

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

666

492

459

475

425

370

384

394

399

438

2,517

4,502

......... .........
......... .........

135
116

113
180

127
195

145
211

165
223

188
231

213
238

238
245

266
253

295
260

685
926

1,886
2,153

......... .........
......... .........

6
13

32
26

36
31

40
37

44
40

48
37

52
44

56
49

59
54

63
63

158
147

436
394

......... .........

–1

–1

7

7

7

5

5

5

5

5

18

45

Subtotal ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������

......... .........

269

350

396

441

479

510

552

593

637

687

1,935

4,914

Adjustments for provisions contained in the Budget
Control Act:
Set discretionary budget authority at cap levels ����������������������
Reflect Joint Committee enforcement ���������������������������������������
Make program integrity adjustments ���������������������������������������
Subtotal ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������

......... .........
......... .........
.........
–*
.........
–*

–25 –47 –61 –70 –76 –81 –87 –92 –99 –103
–71 –96 –105 –109 –109 –109 –109 –109 –109 –38
–*
–2
–3
–4
–4
–5
–6
–6
–7
–8
–96 –145 –169 –184 –190 –195 –202 –208 –215 –149

–280
–490
–13
–783

–742
–966
–44
–1,752

10

31

80

Reclassify surface transportation outlays:
Remove outlays from appropriated category ����������������������������
–48 –53 –55 –56 –58 –58 –59 –59 –60 –60 –61 –62
Add outlays to mandatory category ������������������������������������������
48
53
55
56
58
58
59
59
60
60
61
62
Subtotal ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������� ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........

–286
286
.........

–588
588
.........

Adjustments for disaster costs 1 ���������������������������������������������� .........

Total program adjustments ������������������������������������������������������� .........
Debt service on adjustments ����������������������������������������������������� .........
Total adjustments ����������������������������������������������������������������� .........

*

2

5

7

8

9

9

10

10

10

–*
–*
–*

174
*
174

210
3
213

235
11
246

266
25
291

298
41
339

323
58
381

360
75
435

395
94
490

432
115
547

548
140
688

1,183
80
1,263

3,242
562
3,804

Adjusted baseline deficit ���������������������������������������������������������� 1,300 1,197

840

705

705

766

764

752

819

884

946 1,126

3,780

8,306

SUMMARY TABLES

Totals

*$500 million or less.
1
These amounts represent a placeholder for major disasters requiring Federal assistance for relief and reconstruction. Such assistance might be provided in the form
of discretionary or mandatory outlays or tax relief. These amounts are included as outlays for convenience.

33

Table S–9. CHANGE IN THE ADJUSTED BASELINE FROM BUDGET TO MSR
(Dollar amounts in billions)

February deficits in the adjusted baseline ����������
Percent of GDP �������������������������������������������������������

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

20132017

34

Totals
2012

20132022

1,127
7.2%

772
4.7%

662
3.9%

749
4.1%

862
4.5%

815
4.0%

793
3.7%

862
3.8%

944
4.0%

1,011
4.1%

1,193
4.7%

87

43

51

–16

–53

–5

2

8

–6

–4

–5

20

15

1
*
*

–1
*
*

–7
*
1

–10
–*
3

–8
–*
4

–5
–*
3

–2
–*
4

–1
–*
4

2
–*
4

4
–*
4

3
–*
4

–31
–*
13

–25
–1
33

88

42

45

–22

–57

–6

3

11

1

3

2

2

22

Revisions due to updated economic assumptions:
Receipts �������������������������������������������������������������

38

59

49

37

32

28

24

16

10

4

1

204

260

Mandatory outlays:
Medicare ����������������������������������������������������������
Unemployment compensation �����������������������
Social Security �������������������������������������������������
Supplemental Security Income Program �������
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program ���
Medicaid ���������������������������������������������������������
Other ����������������������������������������������������������������
Net interest �������������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, economic revisions ���������������������������������

–*
–2
*
–*
.........
.........
1
–7
29

*
–5
–2
–*
.........
.........
–2
–24
26

1
–4
–3
–1
–1
*
–2
–37
2

2
–3
–3
–1
–1
*
–*
–43
–13

3
–3
–3
–1
–1
*
–*
–47
–21

4
–2
–3
–1
–1
*
*
–48
–23

4
–1
–2
–1
–1
1
1
–42
–18

4
–*
–1
–1
–1
1
1
–39
–20

5
–*
*
–1
–1
1
2
–35
–19

6
–*
2
–1
–1
1
2
–35
–22

6
*
3
–1
–1
1
3
–38
–25

9
–17
–13
–5
–4
1
–4
–200
–29

33
–19
–11
–9
–8
5
5
–388
–133

Revisions due to updated technical assumptions:
Receipts ��������������������������������������������������������������

47

39

9

12

15

18

20

17

20

22

28

92

198

Discretionary outlays:
Defense ������������������������������������������������������������
Non-defense �����������������������������������������������������

–27
–27

–28
11

5
5

7
2

4
2

*
1

*
*

*
–*

*
–*

*
–*

*
–*

–11
21

–11
21

Mandatory outlays:
Medicare ����������������������������������������������������������
Medicaid ���������������������������������������������������������
Social Security �������������������������������������������������
Unemployment compensation �����������������������
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program ����
Mutual Mortgage Insurance Fund �����������������
Tennessee Valley Authority ����������������������������
Purchases of GSE preferred stock ������������������

–9
4
–4
–11
–4
–2
–*
–16

–16
–7
–5
–6
–1
–*
–1
.........

–14
–7
–6
–4
–2
–*
–1
.........

–11
–7
–7
–2
–3
–1
–1
.........

–15
–9
–7
–*
–3
–1
–2
.........

–14
–12
–8
*
–3
–2
–2
.........

–17
–13
–9
1
–2
–2
–2
.........

–18
–15
–11
*
–1
–2
–2
.........

–19
–17
–12
*
–1
–3
–2
.........

–20
–18
–17
*
–1
–3
–2
.........

–19
–19
–18
–*
–1
–4
–2
.........

–69
–41
–32
–12
–11
–4
–7
.........

–162
–122
–99
–11
–18
–19
–16
.........

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Revisions due to enacted legislation and other
policy changes:
Middle Class Tax Relief and Job Creation Job
Act of 2012 ������������������������������������������������������
Moving Ahead for Progress in the 21st
Century Act of 2012 ���������������������������������������
Other policy changes ������������������������������������������
Debt service ��������������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, enacted legislation and other policy
changes ����������������������������������������������������������������

Table S–9. CHANGE IN THE ADJUSTED BASELINE FROM BUDGET TO MSR—Continued
(Dollar amounts in billions)
2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Direct student loans ����������������������������������������
Deposit Insurance Fund ���������������������������������
Other ����������������������������������������������������������������
Net interest �������������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, technical revisions ���������������������������������
Total changes since February ���������������������������������

3
–6
6
2
–46
71

1
2
5
6
*
68

1
*
4
5
–5
43

1
*
–2
1
–9
–44

1
2
1
–5
–18
–96

1
3
*
–7
–22
–51

1
4
1
–7
–26
–41

1
5
1
–8
–34
–43

1
1
1
–9
–41
–59

1
1
1
–11
–47
–65

2
*
2
–13
–44
–67

MSR deficits in the adjusted baseline ���������������
Percent of GDP �������������������������������������������������������

1,197
7.7%

840
5.2%

705
4.1%

705
3.9%

766
4.0%

764
3.8%

752
3.5%

819
3.7%

884
3.8%

946
3.9%

1,126
4.4%

Memorandum, budget authority for
appropriated programs:
February budget authority �������������������������������������

1,195

1,146

1,173

1,199

1,226

1,256

1,287

1,318

1,350

1,383

1,474

Change in budget authority:
Defense ������������������������������������������������������������
Non-defense �����������������������������������������������������

.........
–2

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

–2
1,193

.........
1,146

.........
1,173

.........
1,199

.........
1,226

.........
1,256

.........
1,287

.........
1,318

.........
1,350

.........
1,383

Total change in budget authority ���������������
MSR budget authority: ������������������������������������������

20132017

20132022

4
7
9
1
–54
–80

10
18
14
–48
–245
–356

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
1,474

.........

.........

SUMMARY TABLES

Totals
2012

*$500 million or less.

35

Table S–10. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
2013

2014

2021

2022

36

Totals
2012

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

–8,077

–5,701

–4,196

–2,751

–1,798

–1,154

–893

–804

10,603

3,203

736

869

749

668

341

329

294

170

122

22,617

23,873

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

Temporary Tax Relief and Investments to
Create Jobs and Jumpstart Growth:
Tax initiatives:
Extend 100-percent first-year depreciation
deduction for certain property ����������������
Provide a temporary 10-percent tax credit
for new jobs and wage increases 1 ����������
Provide additional tax credits for
investment in qualified property
used in a qualified advanced energy
manufacturing project ����������������������������
Provide tax credit for energy-efficient
commercial building property
expenditures in place of exisitng tax
deduction �������������������������������������������������
Reform and extend Build America bonds 1 �����

......... 39,383 –10,806
......... 19,595

851

1,426

1,206

415

24

–72

–114

–57

–21

–7

3,922

3,651

.........
.........

400
2

517
4

367
3

232
4

115
3

32
4

–2
4

–2
4

–2
4

–2
6

1,631
16

1,655
38

800
625
2,667

.........
.........
2,133

.........
.........
533

.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........

3,600
11,250
7,733

3,600
11,250
7,733

1,800

2,100

1,020

600

180

.........

.........

.........

.........

5,820

6,000

131

174

189

139

69

44

28

16

4

839

1,000

450

400

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

1,000

1,000

12,090
478
.........
6,000
1,230
237
2,250
1,351

5,250
899
.........
3,000
.........
237
.........
23

3,650
1,186
.........
.........
.........
238
.........
.........

1,480
1,487
.........
.........
.........
238
.........
.........

1,560
1,684
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

960
1,411
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

640
1,183
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

320
859
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

80
547
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

42,560
4,157
22,500
27,000
4,110
1,000
4,750
1,743

46,120
9,841
22,500
27,000
4,110
1,000
4,750
1,743

1

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

2

2

7,100

3,200

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

14,950

14,950

29,087

11,784

2,515

558

1,047

834

936

453

–54 191,803

195,019

Mandatory initiatives:
Enact Reemployment NOW �����������������������
400 2,800
Create a Pathways Back to Work fund �����
1,250 10,625
Establish a community college initiative ����
267 2,400
Provide HomeStar rebates for energy
efficient home retrofits ���������������������������
.........
300
Develop a national network of
manufacturing innovation institutes ����
.........
206
Establish advanced vehicles community
development challenge ��������������������������
.........
150
Invest in immediate surface
transportation priorities �������������������������
3,880 20,090
Create infrastructure bank �����������������������
22
107
Provide for teacher stabilization ���������������
2,500 22,500
Modernize schools ��������������������������������������
3,000 18,000
Support first responders �����������������������������
890 2,880
Support VA conservation jobs ��������������������
.........
50
Strengthen the teaching profession ����������
250 2,500
Continue temporary SNAP assistance �����
.........
369
Help entrepreneurs and small businesses
access capital and grow �������������������������
1
1
Rehabilitate and repurpose vacant
property (neighborhood stabilization) ���
50 4,650
Total, temporary tax relief and
investments to create jobs and
jumpstart growth ������������������������������� 12,510 147,859

MID-SESSION REVIEW

.........

Table S–10. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
SUMMARY TABLES

Totals
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

Tax Proposals:
Tax cuts for families and individuals:
Extend exclusion from income for
cancellation of certain home mortgage
debt ����������������������������������������������������������
Extend American opportunity tax credit
(AOTC) 1 ��������������������������������������������������
Provide for automatic enrollment in IRAs,
including an employer tax credit, and
doubling of the tax credit for small
employer plan start-up costs 1 ���������������
Expand earned income tax credit (EITC)
for larger families 1 ���������������������������������
Expand child and dependent care tax
credit 1 �����������������������������������������������������
Provide exclusion from income for student
loan forgiveness for students after
25 years of income-based or incomecontingent repayment �����������������������������
Provide exclusion from income for student
loan forgiveness and for certain
scholarship amounts for participants in
the IHS Health Professions Programs ���
Total, tax cuts for families and
individuals ��������������������������������������������

1,329

1,507

355

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

3,191

3,191

.........

670

12,114

12,883

13,961

14,045

15,225

15,542

16,481

17,001

18,260

53,673

136,182

.........

.........

707

1,160

1,243

1,341

1,503

1,719

1,950

2,243

2,622

4,451

14,488

.........

72

1,412

1,448

1,475

1,502

1,524

1,555

1,587

1,619

1,649

5,909

13,843

.........

252

934

949

956

957

956

950

938

928

916

4,048

8,736

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

5

13

13

13

13

13

14

14

14

15

57

127

.........

2,328

16,687

16,808

17,648

17,858

19,221

19,780

20,970

21,805

23,462

71,329

176,567

.........

10

8

8

8

8

9

10

10

10

11

42

92

.........

19

103

242

394

517

617

702

732

644

456

1,275

4,426

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

......... 10,879

7,676

8,481

9,332

10,202

11,074

11,921

12,754

13,593

14,448

46,570

110,360

.........

29

181

285

457

676

510

479

182

–314

–311

1,628

2,174

.........

44

227

261

310

371

389

177

–42

–25

–15

1,213

1,697

37

Incentives for expanding manufacturing
and insourcing jobs in America:
Provide tax incentives for locating jobs
and business activity in the United
States and remove tax deductions for
shipping jobs overseas ����������������������������
Provide new Manufacturing Communities
tax credit �������������������������������������������������
Target the domestic production activities
deduction to domestic manufacturing
activities and double the deduction for
advanced manufacturing activities ��������
Enhance and make permanent the research
and experimentation tax credit ����������������
Provide a tax credit for the production of
advanced technology vehicles �����������������
Provide a tax credit for medium- and
heavy-duty alternative-fuel commercial
vehicles ����������������������������������������������������

.........

Table S–10. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)

Extend and modify certain energy
incentives 1 ����������������������������������������������
Total, incentives for expanding
manufacturing and insourcing jobs in
America ������������������������������������������������
Tax cuts for small business:
Eliminate capital gains taxation on
investments in small business stock ������
Double the amount of expensed start-up
expenditures ��������������������������������������������
Expand and simplify the tax credit
provided to qualified small employers
for non-elective contributions to
employee health insurance 1 ������������������
Total, tax cuts for small business ������������
Incentives to promote regional growth:
Extend and modify the New Markets tax
credit ��������������������������������������������������������
Designate Growth Zones 1 ��������������������������
Modify tax-exempt bonds for Indian tribal
governments ��������������������������������������������
Allow current refundings of State and
local governmental bonds 3 ��������������������
Reform and expand the Low-Income
Housing tax credit �����������������������������������
Total, incentives to promote regional
growth ���������������������������������������������������
Continue certain expiring provisions
through calendar year 2013 1, 3 ��������������

.........

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

1,359

2,223

846

320

137

50

98

126

139

149

4,885

5,447

......... 12,340

10,418

10,123

10,821

11,911

12,649

13,387

13,762

14,047

14,738

55,613

124,196

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

214

619

1,018

1,525

2,079

2,536

214

7,991

.........

328

323

320

318

316

313

308

306

304

303

1,605

3,139

.........
.........

310
638

1,205
1,528

1,757
2,077

1,684
2,002

1,463
1,993

1,263
2,195

1,101
2,427

1,012
2,843

724
3,107

484
3,323

6,419
8,238

11,003
22,133

.........
.........

86
.........

184
533

306
973

397
931

465
884

513
844

528
138

466
–453

310
–425

129
–369

1,438
3,321

3,384
3,056

.........

2

4

8

11

15

19

24

27

31

35

40

176

.........

38

100

184

274

370

469

572

675

780

889

966

4,351

.........

6

17

35

55

76

98

119

142

165

191

189

904

.........

132

838

1,506

1,668

1,810

1,943

1,381

857

861

875

5,954

11,871

......... 21,196

9,826

1,022

460

174

95

175

211

297

342

32,678

33,798

......... –4,317

–9,016

–9,889 –10,901 –11,926 –12,943 –13,969 –15,018 –16,113 –17,245 –46,049

–121,337

......... –1,500

–3,157

–3,439

38

Totals
2012

Upper-income tax provisions:

–5,983 –15,863

–41,747

......... –21,317 –31,739 –34,623 –38,100 –41,573 –45,055 –48,604 –52,297 –56,221 –60,253 –167,352

–429,782

......... –19,451

–198,516

......... –6,897

–3,717

–4,050

–4,413

–4,779

–5,154

–5,555

–8,970 –14,154 –18,892 –21,325 –22,005 –22,515 –23,025 –23,703 –24,476 –82,792
2,999

664

–3,054

–5,348

–5,823

–6,186

–6,530

–6,863

–7,205 –11,636

–44,243

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Sunset the Bush tax cuts for those with
income in excess of $250,000 ($200,000
if single):
Reinstate the limitation on itemized
deductions for upper-income taxpayers ���
Reinstate the personal exemption
phaseout for upper-income taxpayers ���
Reinstate the 36% and 39.6% rates for
upper-income taxpayers ����������������������
Tax qualified dividends as ordinary
income for upper-income taxpayers ����
Tax net long-term capital gains at a 20%
rate for upper-income taxpayers ���������

Table S–10. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)

Subtotal, sunset the Bush tax cuts
for those with income in excess of
$250,000 ($200,000 if single) 4 ����
Reduce the value of certain tax
expenditures ��������������������������������������������
Total, upper-income tax provisions ���������
Modify estate and gift tax provisions:
Restore the estate, gift and generationskipping transfer (GST) tax parameters
in effect in 2009 ���������������������������������������
Require consistency in value for transfer
and income tax purposes ������������������������
Modify rules on valuation discounts ����������
Require a minimum term for grantor
retained annuity trusts (GRATs) �����������
Limit duration of GST tax exemption ��������
Coordinate certain income and transfer
tax rules applicable to grantor trusts ����
Extend the lien on estate tax deferrals
provided under section 6166 �����������������
Total modify estate and gift tax
provisions ���������������������������������������������

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

......... –53,482 –49,883 –61,441 –74,664 –84,222 –90,239 –96,053–102,024–108,455–115,162 –323,692

2013–
2022

–835,625

......... –26,320 –42,900 –46,572 –50,897 –55,942 –60,983 –65,352 –69,862 –74,854 –79,995 –222,631 –573,677
......... –79,802 –92,783–108,013–125,561–140,164–151,222–161,405–171,886–183,309–195,157 –546,323 –1,409,302

.........

–253

–8,479

–9,732 –10,621 –11,623 –12,706 –13,886 –15,104 –16,456 –17,700 –40,708

–116,560

.........
.........

–154
–794

–165
–1,425

–173
–1,521

–183
–1,632

–193
–1,758

–205
–1,900

–219
–2,054

–232
–2,209

–247
–2,380

–262
–2,558

–868
–7,130

–2,033
–18,231

.........
.........

–41
.........

–85
.........

–144
.........

–207
.........

–275
.........

–349
.........

–429
.........

–514
.........

–605
.........

–713
.........

–752
.........

–3,362
.........

.........

–23

–31

–39

–50

–65

–82

–106

–134

–171

–216

–208

–917

.........

–5

–9

–13

–16

–17

–18

–19

–20

–21

–22

–60

–160

......... –1,270 –10,194 –11,622 –12,709 –13,931 –15,260 –16,713 –18,213 –19,880 –21,471 –49,726

–141,263

......... –2,639

–4,500

–4,679

–4,863

–5,059

–5,257

–5,446

–5,644

–2,812

–889 –21,740

–41,788

......... –3,514

–5,993

–6,232

–6,477

–6,738

–7,001

–7,254

–7,517

–7,806

–8,112 –28,954

–66,644

......... –1,469

–2,595

–2,523

–2,468

–2,398

–2,356

–2,314

–2,250

–2,169

–2,107 –11,453

–22,649

.........

–30

–67

–95

–124

–154

–185

–217

–252

–289

–330

–470

–1,743

.........

–110

–209

–227

–239

–245

–257

–272

–272

–289

–310

–1,030

–2,430

.........

–222

–382

–401

–421

–442

–464

–487

–512

–537

–564

–1,868

–4,432

.........

–514

–883

–933

–988

–1,044

–1,101

–1,154

–1,207

–1,261

–1,296

–4,362

–10,381

.........

–158

–218

–229

–240

–252

–265

–278

–292

–307

–322

–1,097

–2,561

.........

–280

–296

–307

–320

–332

–345

–358

–371

–385

–400

–1,535

–3,394

39

Reform U.S. international tax system:
Defer deduction of interest expense
related to deferred income of foreign
subsidiaries ���������������������������������������������
Determine the foreign tax credit on a
pooling basis ��������������������������������������������
Tax currently excess returns associated
with transfers of intangibles offshore ����
Limit shifting of income through
intangible property transfers �����������������
Disallow the deduction for excess nontaxed reinsurance premiums paid to
affiliates ���������������������������������������������������
Limit earnings stripping by expatriated
entities �����������������������������������������������������
Modify tax rules for dual capacity
taxpayers �������������������������������������������������
Tax gain from the sale of a partnership
interest on look-through basis ����������������
Prevent use of leveraged distributions
from related foreign corporations to
avoid dividend treatment �����������������������

2013

SUMMARY TABLES

Totals
2012

Table S–10. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)

Extend section 338(h)(16) to certain asset
acquisitions ���������������������������������������������
Remove foreign taxes from a section 902
corporation’s foreign tax pool when
earnings are eliminated ��������������������������
Total reform U.S. international tax
system ���������������������������������������������������
Reform treatment of financial and
insurance industry institutions and
products:
Require accrual of income on forward sale
of corporate stock ������������������������������������
Require ordinary treatment of income
from day-to-day dealer activities for
certain dealers of equity options and
commodities ���������������������������������������������
Modify rules that apply to sales of life
insurance contracts ���������������������������������
Modify proration rules for life insurance
company general and separate accounts���
Expand pro rata interest expense
disallowance for corporate- owned life
insurance (COLI) ������������������������������������
Total reform treatment of financial and
insurance industry institutions and
products ������������������������������������������������

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

.........

–60

–100

–100

–100

–100

–100

–100

–100

–100

–100

–460

–960

.........

–10

–20

–27

–36

–46

–50

–50

–50

–50

–50

–139

–389

......... –9,006 –15,263 –15,753 –16,276 –16,810 –17,381 –17,930 –18,467 –16,005 –14,480 –73,108

–157,371

.........

–4

–11

–18

–26

–34

–38

–40

–42

–44

–46

–93

–303

.........

–152

–240

–254

–270

–286

–303

–321

–341

–361

–383

–1,202

–2,911

.........

–11

–36

–44

–55

–68

–80

–94

–110

–127

–148

–214

–773

.........

–463

–798

–776

–781

–799

–803

–798

–757

–736

–711

–3,617

–7,422

.........

–20

–65

–167

–252

–399

–601

–831

–1,180

–1,579

–1,996

–903

–7,090

.........

–650

–1,150

–1,259

–1,384

–1,586

–1,825

–2,084

–2,430

–2,847

–3,284

–6,029

–18,499

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

......... –1,667
.........
–7

–2,305
–11

–1,807
–11

–1,715
–11

–1,405
–11

–948
–10

–636
–10

–428
–10

–311
–10

–255
–10

–8,899
–51

–11,477
–101

40

Totals
2012

Eliminate fossil fuel tax preferences:

Subtotal, eliminate oil and gas
preferences �����������������������������������

.........

–9

–11

–10

–9

–8

–8

–7

–7

–7

–6

–47

–82

.........

–637

–1,110

–1,187

–1,241

–1,282

–1,319

–1,347

–1,370

–1,391

–1,422

–5,457

–12,306

.........

–61

–222

–336

–305

–220

–139

–59

–5

7

2

–1,144

–1,338

......... –2,381

–3,659

–3,351

–3,281

–2,926

–2,424

–2,059

–1,820

–1,712

–1,691 –15,598

–25,304

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Eliminate oil and gas preferences:
Repeal enhanced oil recovery credit 5 �����
Repeal credit for oil and gas produced
from marginal wells 5 ��������������������������
Repeal expensing of intangible drilling
costs ������������������������������������������������������
Repeal deduction for tertiary injectants �
Repeal exception to passive loss
limitations for working interests in
oil and natural gas properties �������������
Repeal percentage depletion for oil and
natural gas wells ����������������������������������
Increase geological and geophysical
amortization period for independent
producers to seven years ���������������������

Table S–10. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)

Eliminate coal preferences:
Repeal expensing of exploration and
development costs ��������������������������������
Repeal percentage depletion for hard
mineral fossil fuels �������������������������������
Repeal capital gains treatment for
royalties ������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, eliminate coal preferences 
Total eliminate fossil fuel tax
preferences 6 ��������������������������������

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

.........

–26

–44

–46

–48

–50

–50

–48

–46

–43

–39

–214

–440

.........

–154

–158

–164

–165

–167

–172

–178

–185

–192

–202

–808

–1,737

.........

–11

–25

–31

–38

–43

–47

–51

–55

–58

–63

–148

–422

.........

–191

–227

–241

–251

–260

–269

–277

–286

–293

–304

–1,170

–2,599

......... –2,572

–3,886

–3,592

–3,532

–3,186

–2,693

–2,336

–2,106

–2,005

–1,995 –16,768

–27,903

.........
–54
......... –1,432

–73
–2,068

–73
–2,019

–72
–1,932

–74
–2,083

–74
–2,159

–73
–2,209

–71
–2,223

–70
–2,233

–70
–2,293

–346
–9,534

–704
–20,651

......... –1,010

–1,416

–1,448

–1,482

–1,517

–1,549

–1,574

–1,598

–1,621

–1,646

–6,873

–14,861

.........

.........

–9,382

–8,464

–8,344

–8,399

–9,050

–8,547

–8,216

–8,577

–8,216 –34,589

–77,195

.........

.........

–6,199

–2,455

–1,517

–1,531

–303

–317

–331

–347

–363 –11,702

–13,363

.........

–46

–148

–227

–257

–302

–320

–236

–141

–109

–106

–980

–1,892

.........

–96

–163

–168

–173

–178

–183

–189

–194

–200

–206

–778

–1,750

......... –1,286

–1,932

–1,913

–1,698

–1,421

–1,158

–1,097

–1,162

–1,008

–762

–8,250

–13,437

.........

–2

–6

–6

–7

–7

–7

–7

–8

–8

–8

–28

–66

.........

–6

–67

–74

–83

–89

–94

–97

–100

–105

–111

–319

–826

.........
.........

–5
.........

–63
–24

–69
–35

–77
–35

–82
–36

–87
–36

–90
–37

–94
–37

–97
–39

–103
–40

–296
–130

–767
–319

.........

–37

–51

–53

–55

–59

–61

–64

–68

–71

–74

–255

–593

......... –3,974 –21,592 –17,004 –15,732 –15,778 –15,081 –14,537 –14,243 –14,485 –13,998 –74,080

–146,424

41

Other revenue changes and loophole
closers:
Increase Oil Spill Liability Trust Fund
financing rate by one cent and update
the law to include other sources of
crudes 3 ����������������������������������������������������
Reinstate Superfund taxes �������������������������
Make unemployment insurance surtax
permanent 3 ��������������������������������������������
Repeal LIFO method of accounting for
inventories �����������������������������������������������
Repeal lower-of-cost-or-market inventory
accounting method ����������������������������������
Eliminate special depreciation rules
for purchases of general aviation
passenger aircraft �����������������������������������
Repeal gain limitation for dividends
received in reorganization exchanges ����
Tax carried (profits) interests as ordinary
income ������������������������������������������������������
Expand the definition of built-in loss for
purposes of partnership loss transfers �
Extend partnership basis limitation rules
to nondeductible expenditures ���������������
Limit the importation of losses under
section 267(d) �����������������������������������������
Deny deduction for punitive damages �������
Eliminate the deduction for contributions
of conservation easements on golf
courses �����������������������������������������������������
Total, other revenue changes and
loophole closers ������������������������������������

2013

SUMMARY TABLES

Totals
2012

Table S–10. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

42

Totals
2012

2013–
2022

Reduce the tax gap and make reforms:
Expand information reporting:
Require information reporting for
private separate accounts of life
insurance companies ���������������������������
Require a certified Taxpayer
Identification Number (TIN) from
contractors and allow certain
withholding ������������������������������������������
Improve compliance by businesses:
Require greater electronic filing of
returns ��������������������������������������������������
Authorize the Department of the
Treasury to require additional
information to be included in
electronically filed Form 5500 Annual
Reports �������������������������������������������������
Implement standards clarifying when
employee leasing companies can be
held liable for their clients’ Federal
employment taxes �������������������������������
Increase certainty with respect to
worker classification ����������������������������
Repeal special estimated tax payment
provision for certain insurance
companies ���������������������������������������������

.........

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–2

–4

–10

.........

–53

–90

–123

–129

–135

–141

–147

–154

–161

–168

–530

–1,301

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–4

–5

–6

–6

–6

–7

–7

–8

–8

–8

–27

–65

.........

–65

–322

–635

–776

–864

–956

–1,052

–1,152

–1,256

–1,366

–2,662

–8,444

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–50

–221

–105

–128

–161

–192

–210

–214

–216

–217

–665

–1,714

.........

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–5

–10

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–1

–1

–1

–1

–2

–2

–2

–2

–10

.........

.........

.........

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–1

–3

–8

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

–1
–1

–4
–1

–4
–1

–4
–1

–4
–2

–4
–2

–4
–2

–5
–2

–25
–10

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Strengthen tax administration:
Streamline audit and adjustment
procedures for large partnerships �������
Revise offer-in-compromise application
rules ������������������������������������������������������
Expand IRS access to information in the
National Directory of New Hires for
tax administration purposes ���������������
Make repeated willful failure to file a tax
return a felony �������������������������������������
Facilitate tax compliance with local
jurisdictions ������������������������������������������
Extend statute of limitations where
State adjustment affects Federal tax
liability �������������������������������������������������
Improve investigative disclosure statute ���
Require taxpayers who prepare their
returns electronically but file their
returns on paper to print their returns
with a 2-D bar code ������������������������������

.........

Table S–10. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)

Allow the IRS to absorb credit and debit
card processing fees for certain tax
payments ����������������������������������������������
Improve and make permanent the
provision authorizing the IRS to
disclose certain return information to
certain prison officials �������������������������
Extend IRS math error authority in
certain circumstances 1 �����������������������
Impose a penalty on failure to comply
with electronic filing requirements �����
Total, reduce the tax gap and make
reforms �����������������������������������������
Simplify the tax system:
Simplify the rules for claiming the EITC for
workers without qualifying children 1 ����
Eliminate minimum required distribution
(MRD) requirements for IRA/plan
balances of $75,000 or less ���������������������
Allow all inherited plan and IRA accounts
to be rolled over within 60 days �������������
Clarify exception to recapture of
unrecognized gain on sale of stock to an
ESOP �������������������������������������������������������
Repeal non-qualified preferred stock
designation ����������������������������������������������
Repeal preferential dividend rule for
publicly offered REITs ����������������������������
Reform excise tax based on investment
income of private foundations ����������������
Remove bonding requirements for certain
taxpayers subject to Federal excise taxes
on distilled spirits, wine, and beer �����������
Simplify arbitrage investment restrictions 
Simplify single-family housing mortgage
bond targeting requirements ������������������
Streamline private business limits on
governmental bonds ��������������������������������
Total, simplify the tax system �����������������

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

.........

–1

–1

–2

–2

–2

–2

–2

–2

–2

–2

–8

–18

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–7

–16

–17

–16

–17

–18

–19

–19

–21

–21

–73

–171

.........

.........

.........

.........

–1

–1

–1

–1

–2

–2

–2

–2

–10

.........

–181

–657

–891

–1,064

–1,195

–1,326

–1,447

–1,562

–1,677

–1,796

–3,988

–11,796

.........

36

486

497

506

514

522

532

542

552

563

2,039

4,750

.........

5

8

13

19

27

36

46

58

72

86

72

370

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–30

–49

–49

–48

–45

–42

–37

–33

–29

–26

–221

–388

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

4

4

5

5

5

5

6

6

7

7

23

54

.........
.........

.........
2

.........
10

.........
18

.........
28

.........
38

.........
46

.........
58

.........
68

.........
76

.........
87

.........
96

.........
431

.........

.........

.........

.........

1

1

1

3

3

3

3

2

15

.........
.........

1
18

3
462

5
489

7
518

9
549

11
579

13
621

15
659

17
698

19
739

25
2,036

100
5,332

.........

1

5

8

13

19

25

32

36

41

43

46

223

43

Trade initiatives:
Establish Reconstruction Opportunity
Zones 3 �����������������������������������������������������

2013

SUMMARY TABLES

Totals
2012

Table S–10. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)

Other initiatives:
Authorize the limited sharing of business
tax return information to improve the
accuracy of important measures of our
economy ���������������������������������������������������
Eliminate certain reviews conducted by
the U.S. Treasury Inspector General for
Tax Administration (TIGTA) ������������������
Modify indexing to prevent deflationary
adjustments ���������������������������������������������
Total, other initiatives �����������������������������
Total, tax proposals ��������������������������

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

44

Totals
2012

......... .........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
......... .........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
......... –60,802 –105,761 –126,101 –143,128 –158,336 –168,081 –178,649 –189,569 –199,352 –208,659 –594,128 –1,538,438

Mandatory Initiatives and Savings:
Invest in surface transportation:
Reauthorize surface transportation for
six years (outlays from Transportation
Trust Fund) ��������������������������������������������
Invest in immediate surface transportation
priorities (non-add; shown above under
“Temporary tax relief and investments to
create jobs and jumpstart growth”) �������

.........

267

3,763

8,646

13,437

18,492

24,063

22,478

15,099

10,645

8,038

44,605

124,928

3,880 20,090

12,090

5,250

3,650

1,480

1,560

960

640

320

80

42,560

46,120

.........
.........

291
–46

–3,560
–106

–2,729
–159

–1,536
–222

–1,788
–222

–3,079
–227

–4,445
–221

–4,607
–216

–4,496
–211

–4,340
–211

–9,322
–755

–30,289
–1,841

.........

–8

–4

2

2

2

2

1

1

1

1

–6

.........

.........

–22

–22

–22

–22

–22

–22

–22

–22

–22

–22

–110

–220

.........

–20

–27

–27

–28

–29

–30

–31

–32

–33

–34

–131

–291

.........

–13

–13

–13

–13

–13

–13

–13

–13

–13

–13

–65

–130

.........
.........
.........

–27
–1
.........

–27
.........
198

–27
.........
151

–27
.........
93

–27
.........
59

–27
.........
9

–27
.........
.........

–27
.........
.........

–27
.........
.........

–27
.........
.........

–135
–1
501

–270
–1
510

.........

.........

–1

–14

–13

–13

–14

–14

–14

–14

–14

–41

–111

.........

154

–3,562

–2,838

–1,766

–2,053

–3,401

–4,772

–4,930

–4,815

–4,660 –10,065

–32,643

Health and other mandatory proposals:

Total, Agriculture �����������������������������

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Agriculture:
Reduce agriculture subsidies �����������������
Better target conservation spending �����
Permanently reauthorize stewardship
contracting ������������������������������������������
Enact Natural Resources Conservation
Service (NRCS) fee ������������������������������
Enact Animal Plant and Health
Inspection Service (APHIS) fee ����������
Enact Food Safety and Inspection
Service (FSIS) fee ��������������������������������
Enact Grain Inspection, Packers, and
Stockyards Administration (GIPSA)
fees �������������������������������������������������������
Impose biobased labeling fee ������������������
Extend funding for Secure Rural Schools ���
Outyear mandatory effects of
discretionary changes to the
Conservation Stewardship Program ����

Table S–10. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)

Education:
Provide mandatory appropriation to
sustain recent Pell Grant increases ����
Reform and expand Perkins loan
program �����������������������������������������������
Adjust guaranty agency loan
rehabilitation compensation ���������������
Overhaul TEACH Grants and replace
with Presidential Teaching Fellows ���
Eliminate in-school interest subsidies
for current undergraduates after 150
percent of program length �������������������
Establish career academies ��������������������
Outyear mandatory effects of
discretionary changes to the
Vocational Rehabilitation State
Grants program �����������������������������������
Total, Education �����������������������������
Energy:
Reauthorize special assessment from
domestic nuclear utilities 2 ����������������
Repeal ultra-deepwater oil and gas
research and development program ���

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

.........

.........

1,055

4,372

4,194

58

183

675

703

724

746

9,679

12,710

.........

–644

–1,768

–1,395

–1,113

–900

–727

–640

–594

–554

–515

–5,820

–8,850

......... –3,390

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–3,390

–3,390

.........

.........

105

152

156

150

137

–2

–61

–77

–86

563

474

.........
.........

–80
10

–159
110

–180
270

–51
350

.........
200

.........
60

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

–470
940

–470
1,000

.........

.........

–40

–61

–66

–67

–70

–70

–72

–73

–75

–234

–594

......... –4,104

–697

3,158

3,470

–559

–417

–37

–24

20

70

1,268

880

.........

–204

–208

–212

–217

–221

–226

–231

–235

–240

–1,041

–2,194

–200

.........

–20

–40

–30

–10

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–100

–100

.........

–220

–244

–238

–222

–217

–221

–226

–231

–235

–240

–1,141

–2,294

Bad debts:
Reduce Medicare coverage of
patients’ bad debts ������������������

.........

–310

–1,020

–1,910

–2,410

–2,620

–2,810

–2,990

–3,190

–3,410

–3,640

–8,270

–24,310

Graduate medical education:
Align graduate medical education
payments with patient care
costs �����������������������������������������

.........

.........

–860

–960

–980

–1,010

–1,050

–1,110

–1,180

–1,260

–1,340

–3,810

–9,750

Better align payments to rural
providers with the cost of care:
Reduce Critical Access Hospital
(CAH) payments from 101%
of reasonable costs to 100% of
reasonable costs ����������������������

.........

–70

–120

–120

–130

–130

–140

–150

–170

–180

–190

–570

–1,400

Total, Energy ������������������������������������

SUMMARY TABLES

Totals
2012

Health and Human Services (HHS):
Health proposals:
Medicare providers:

45

Table S–10. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)

Prohibit CAH designation for
facilities that are less than
10 miles from the nearest
hospital ������������������������������������
Cut waste, fraud, and improper
payments in Medicare:
Reduce fraud, waste, and abuse
in Medicare �����������������������������
Dedicate penalties for failure to
use electronic health records
toward deficit reduction ����������
Update Medicare payments to
more appropriately account
for utilization of advanced
imaging ������������������������������������
Require prior authorization for
advanced imaging �������������������
Drug rebates:
Align Medicare drug payment
policies with Medicaid policies
for low-income beneficiaries ���

Medicare structural reforms:
Increase income-related premiums
under Medicare Parts B and D ��
Modify Part B deductible for new
enrollees ��������������������������������������
Introduce home health co-payments
for new beneficiaries �������������������
Introduce a Part B premium
surcharge for beneficiaries
that purchase near first-dollar
medigap coverage ������������������������

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

.........

.........

–50

–60

–70

–70

–70

–80

–80

–90

–90

–250

–660

.........

–10

–20

–20

–30

–50

–50

–60

–70

–70

–70

–130

–450

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–170

–190

–200

.........

–560

.........

–40

–60

–70

–80

–80

–80

–90

–90

–100

–110

–330

–800

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

......... –3,516

–8,588

–9,376 –10,327 –11,759 –13,482 –14,725 –16,501 –18,583 –20,272 –43,566

–127,129

.........

–30

–890

–2,030

–3,360

–4,780

–6,380

–8,330 –10,490 –12,920 –15,590 –11,090

–64,800

.........

–180

–220

–230

–240

–250

–260

–280

–290

–310

–330

–1,120

–2,590

.........

–180

–220

–220

–230

–240

–250

–260

–260

–270

–290

–1,090

–2,420

......... .........
.........
.........
–230
–280
–300
–330
–350
–380
–420
–510
......... –4,336 –12,048 –14,996 –18,087 –21,269 –24,872 –28,405 –32,841 –37,763 –42,542 –70,736

–2,290
–237,159

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–1,500

–2,330

–2,790

–5,437

–7,433

–9,260

–1,500

–28,750

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–50

–50

–230

–320

–700

–820

–50

–2,170

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–20

–30

–50

–80

–110

–140

–20

–430

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–80

–210

–340

–490

–640

–800

–80

–2,560

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Encourage efficient post-acute care:
Adjust payment updates for
certain post-acute care
providers ����������������������������������
Equalize payments for certain
conditions commonly treated
in Inpatient Rehabilitation
Facilities and Skilled Nursing
Facilities (SNFs) ����������������������
Encourage appropriate use
of inpatient rehabilitation
hospitals ����������������������������������
Adjust SNF payments to reduce
hospital readmissions �������������
Total, Medicare providers ������������

2013

46

Totals
2012

Table S–10. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)

Strengthen the Independent
Payment Advisory Board (IPAB)
to reduce long-term drivers of
Medicare cost growth ������������������
Total, Medicare structural
reforms �����������������������������������

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

2021

.........

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

–1,193

.........

–1,193

–8,883 –12,213

–1,650

–35,103

249

12,331

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–1,650

–2,620

–3,410

–6,327

Interactions �������������������������������������

.........

38

53

20

47

91

834

2,185

2,643

2,915

Medicaid and other:
Enact Medicaid reforms ������������������

.........

319

549

–2,156

–3,191

–7,456

–7,351

–7,581

–7,201

–7,741

–8,187 –11,936

–49,997

.........

–714

–792

–858

–938

–1,007

–1,085

–1,182

–1,276

–1,376

–1,495

–4,309

–10,723

.........
.........

.........
–714

.........
–792

–156
–1,014

–354
–1,292

–415
–1,422

–483
–1,568

–622
–1,804

–672
–1,948

–702
–2,078

–742
–2,237

–925
–5,234

–4,146
–14,869

.........
.........

.........
–395

.........
–243

.........
–3,170

.........
–4,483

.........
–8,878

.........
–8,919

.........
–9,385

.........
–9,149

.........
.........
.........
–9,819 –10,424 –17,170

.........
–64,866

.........
100
250
50
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
400
......... –4,593 –11,988 –18,096 –22,523 –31,706 –35,577 –39,015 –45,674 –53,550 –61,674 –88,907
1
3
5
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
6
26
.........
409
634
731
748
750
750
750
750
750
750
3,272

400
–324,397
56
7,022

Pharmaceutical savings:
Prohibit brand and generic drug
companies from delaying the
availability of new generic
drugs and biologics �����������������
Modify length of exclusivity to
facilitate faster development of
generic biologics ����������������������
Total, pharmaceutical savings ���
Accelerate the issuance of state
innovation waivers ����������������������
Total, Medicaid and other ����������
Provide administrative expenses for
implementation ���������������������������
Total, HHS health proposals �����������
Extend the child welfare study ��������������
Strengthen and expand child care access ���
Improve permanency and safety and
child welfare ����������������������������������������
Modernize child support �������������������������

3,505

220
7

243
9

248
182

250
224

250
271

250
283

250
336

250
378

250
380

250
236

1,211
693

2,461
2,306

Supplemental Security Income (SSI)
effects ��������������������������������������������

.........

.........

.........

–1

–2

–2

–3

–3

–4

–4

–4

–5

–23

SNAP effects ������������������������������������

.........

.........

.........

–21

–32

–43

–54

–65

–76

–76

–76

–96

–443

Medicaid effects �������������������������������

.........

.........

.........

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

10

30

80

Foster care effects ���������������������������

.........

2

36

36

35

34

34

33

32

31

30

143

303

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

1 –3,952 –11,061 –16,905 –21,284 –30,430 –34,301 –37,698 –44,328 –52,203 –60,472 –83,633

–312,635

Make TANF supplemental grant
funding permanent and reduce the
annual amount available in the TANF
contingency fund ���������������������������������
Total, HHS ����������������������������������������

47

.........
.........

SUMMARY TABLES

Totals
2012

Table S–10. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

.........

–200

–1,139

–1,410

–1,675

–1,950

–2,235

–2,279

–2,324

–2,370

–2,417

–6,374

–17,999

Housing and Urban Development:
Provide funding for the Affordable
Housing Trust Fund ���������������������������

.........

10

140

290

230

190

100

20

20

.........

.........

860

1,000

29
.........

34
.........

27
–2

24
–4

22
–5

20
–5

14
–6

13
–6

12
–11

11
–17

10
–24

127
–16

187
–80

.........

.........

–200

–150

–100

–50

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–500

–500

.........
.........

.........
–4

–44
–4

–46
–5

–47
–5

–47
–5

–49
–5

–50
–5

–52
–5

–56
–6

–58
–6

–184
–23

–449
–50

.........

.........

–18

–18

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–36

–36

.........

–13

–29

–42

–55

–67

–82

–99

–115

–132

–149

–206

–783

.........
.........

–3
–4

–5
.........

–8
.........

–9
.........

–3
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

–28
–4

–28
–4

29

10

–275

–249

–199

–157

–128

–147

–171

–200

–227

–870

–1,743

.........

100

50

50

50

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

250

250

.........

.........

4,945

4,685

4,036

3,697

3,557

3,644

3,793

3,967

4,143

17,363

36,467

1,106

3,245

2,713

–6,914

–9,696

–5,687

–7,323

–6,599

–8,623

–5,254

–5,494 –16,339

–49,632

.........

–10

–13

–23

–33

–43

–54

–65

–76

–87

–99

–122

–503

.........
.........

–21
1

–54
1

–74
1

–92
1

–103
1

–21
1

–100
1

–52
1

–257
1

–93
1

–344
5

–867
10

1,106

3,215

7,592

–2,325

–5,784

–2,135

–3,840

–3,119

–4,957

–1,630

–1,542

563

–14,525

.........

–644

–661

–688

–713

–738

–760

–776

–791

–806

–821

–3,444

–7,398

Interior:
Extend the Palau Compact of Free
Association ������������������������������������������
Reform hardrock mining on public lands ���
Establish an AML hardrock reclamation
fund 2 ����������������������������������������������������
Make permanent net receipts sharing
for energy minerals �����������������������������
Repeal geothermal payment to counties 
Repeal oil and gas fee prohibition and
mandatory permit funds ���������������������
Impose a fee on nonproducing oil and
gas leases ���������������������������������������������
Reauthorize the Federal Land
Transaction Facilitation Act of 2000
(FLTFA) �����������������������������������������������
Increase duck stamp fees 2 ����������������������
Total, Interior �����������������������������������
Justice:
Provide incentives for State medical
malpractice reform ������������������������������
Labor:
Establish a universal dislocated workers
program 7 ��������������������������������������������
Strengthen unemployment insurance
system solvency 2 3 8 �����������������������������
Reform the Federal Employees’
Compensation Act (FECA) �����������������
Implement unemployment insurance
administration cap adjustment 2 3 �����
Enact foreign labor certification fees �����
Total, Labor ������������������������������������
Transportation:
Establish a mandatory surcharge for air
traffic services 2 3 ���������������������������������

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Homeland Security:
Reform the aviation passenger security
user fee to more accurately reflect the
costs of aviation security ��������������������

48

Totals
2012

Table S–10. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)

Restructure funding for Essential Air
Service Program ����������������������������������
Total, Transportation �����������������������
Treasury:
Impose a financial crisis responsibility
fee 2 �������������������������������������������������������
Implement IRS program integrity cap
adjustment 2 �����������������������������������������
Restructure assistance to New
York City, provide tax incentives
fortransportation infrastructure 2 ������
Authorize the Bureau of Engraving
and Printing (BEP) to conduct
a couponprogram to distribute
electronic currency readers 2 �������������
Increase levy authority for payments
to Medicare providers with
delinquenttax debt 2 ����������������������������
Authorize Treasury to locate and recover
assets of the United States and to
retain a portion of amounts collected
to pay for the costs of recovery ����������
Provide authority to contact delinquent
debtors via their cell phones ��������������
Allow offset of Federal income tax refunds
to collect delinquent State income taxes
for out-of-state residents �����������������������
Total, Treasury �������������������������������

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

.........

30

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

50

230

480

.........

–614

–611

–638

–663

–688

–710

–726

–741

–756

–771

–3,214

–6,918

.........

.........

–3,224

–6,404

–6,441

–6,708

–6,975

–7,237

–7,576

–7,910

–8,266 –22,777

–60,741

.........

–421

–1,123

–2,251

–3,455

–4,694

–5,585

–6,200

–6,483

–6,661

–6,779 –11,944

–43,652

.........

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

200

1,000

2,000

.........

–53

–12

–12

–12

–13

–13

–13

–14

–14

–14

–102

–170

.........

–50

–66

–68

–70

–72

–74

–76

–77

–78

–80

–326

–711

.........

.........

–2

–2

–2

–2

–2

–2

–2

–2

–2

–8

–18

.........

–12

–12

–12

–12

–12

–12

–12

–12

–12

–12

–60

–120

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–336

–4,239

–8,549

–9,792 –11,301 –12,461 –13,340 –13,964 –14,477 –14,953 –34,217

–103,412

.........

.........

–29

–68

–104

–155

–201

–241

–294

–329

–374

–356

–1,795

.........

.........

–4

–4

–4

–4

–4

.........

.........

.........

.........

–16

–20

.........

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

5

10

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

1

5

10

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
1

.........
1

.........
1

.........
1

.........
.........

.........
4

49

Veterans Affairs:
Extend rounding down of cost of living
adjustments (compensation) ��������������
Extend rounding down of cost of living
adjustments (education) ���������������������
Allow occupancy by a dependent child
to satisfy VA home loans occupancy
requirement �����������������������������������������
Allow for government furnished
headstones 9 �����������������������������������������
Expand work study activities 10 ��������������
Increase cap on vocational rehabilitation
contract counseling �����������������������������
Exclude temporary residence adaptation
grants from Specially Adapted
Housing (SAH) grants 11 ���������������������
Replace the SAH program’s grant limit 12 ���

2013

SUMMARY TABLES

Totals
2012

Table S–10. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)

Amend visual impairment standard for
SAH grant �������������������������������������������
Restore eligibility for housing adaptation ���
Provide SAH grants to veterans living
with family ������������������������������������������
Extend supplemental service disabled
veterans insurance coverage 13 �����������
Expand eligibility for veterans medallion
for headstones 14 ����������������������������������
Total, Veterans Affairs ���������������������
Corps of Engineers:
Reform inland waterways funding 2, 3 �����
Other Defense—Civil Programs:
Increase TRICARE pharmacy benefit
copayments ������������������������������������������
Increase TRICARE pharmacy benefit
copayments (accrual effect) ����������������
Increase annual premiums for
TRICARE-For-Life (TFL) enrollment 
Increase annual premiums for TFL
(accrual effect) �������������������������������������
Provide additional accrual payments to
the Medicare-Eligible Retiree Health
Care Fund ��������������������������������������������
Total, Other Defense—Civil
Programs ��������������������������������������
Environmental Protection Agency:
Enact Pesticide Registration and
Premanufacture Notice Fees ��������������
Establish Hazardous Waste Electronic
Manifest System ���������������������������������

Office of Personnel Management:
Increase employee contributions to the
Civil Service Retirement System
(CSRS) and the Federal Employees
Retirement System (FERS) 2 ��������������
Eliminate the FERS Supplement for
new employees (accrual effects) ����������
Streamline Federal Employees Health
Benefits Program pharmacy benefit
contracting (health proposal) �������������

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

.........
.........

3
6

3
6

3
6

1
6

1
7

1
7

1
7

1
8

1
8

1
9

11
31

16
70

.........

6

6

6

7

7

7

8

8

9

9

32

73

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

17

–16

–55

–92

–142

–188

–222

–274

–308

–352

–288

–1,632

.........

–82

–113

–113

–113

–113

–113

–113

–113

–113

–114

–534

–1,100

.........

–256

–335

–542

–678

–936

–1,131

–1,335

–1,575

–1,865

–1,993

–2,747

–10,646

.........

979

1,012

1,069

1,130

1,195

1,264

1,336

1,413

1,495

1,581

5,385

12,474

.........

–141

–287

–436

–586

–627

–672

–716

–764

–816

–872

–2,077

–5,917

.........

404

416

439

463

490

518

548

579

613

648

2,212

5,118

.........

–271

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–271

–271

.........

715

806

530

329

122

–21

–167

–347

–573

–636

2,502

758

.........

–77

–88

–95

–97

–101

–104

–107

–110

–114

–116

–458

–1,009

.........

.........

.........

–6

–4

–3

–3

–3

–3

–3

–3

–13

–28

.........

–77

–88

–101

–101

–104

–107

–110

–113

–117

–119

–471

–1,037

.........

–865

–1,656

–2,397

–2,347

–2,300

–2,252

–2,194

–2,132

–2,068

–1,995

–9,565

–20,206

.........

2

8

12

18

21

26

30

33

35

38

61

223

.........

.........

–101

–196

–211

–227

–244

–264

–284

–307

–333

–735

–2,167

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Total, Environmental Protection
Agency ����������������������������������������

2013

50

Totals
2012

Table S–10. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)

Total, Office of Personnel
Management ��������������������������������
Social Security Administration (SSA):
Improve collection of pension information
from States and localities ���������������������
Enact Disability Insurance Work
Incentives Simplification Pilot �����������
Establish Workers Compensation
Information Reporting ������������������������
Enact SSA quarterly wage reporting �����
Extend SSI time limits for qualified
refugees �����������������������������������������������

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

–2,290 –10,239

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

.........

–863

–1,749

–2,581

–2,540

–2,506

–2,470

–2,428

–2,383

–2,340

–22,150

.........

13

20

17

–211

–456

–593

–626

–566

–529

–481

–617

–3,412

.........

5

10

15

22

25

13

.........

.........

.........

.........

77

90

.........
.........

5
20

5
30

.........
90

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

10
140

10
140

84

84

.........

41

43

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

Medicaid effects �������������������������������

.........

11

11

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

22

22

SNAP effects ������������������������������������

.........

–7

–7

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–14

–14

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

88

112

122

–189

–431

–580

–626

–566

–529

–481

–298

–3,080

.........

–140

–260

–380

–990

–130

–100

–120

–120

–120

–120

–1,900

–2,480

Enact Postal Service financial relief
and reform:
PAYGO impact ��������������������������������� 1,551
Non-scorable impact ������������������������ –1,696

3,114
–656

–3,033
3,777

–4,055
5,863

–4,072
7,690

–4,088
5,692

–4,088
7,302

–4,088
3,933

–4,088
3,933

–4,088
3,933

–4,088 –12,134
3,933 22,366

–32,574
45,400

Lower electronic wage reporting
threshold to 100 employees 15 �������������
Conform treatment of state and local
government EITC and CTC for SSI 14 ����
Terminate stepchild benefits in the same
month as step-parent 16 �����������������������
Total, SSA �����������������������������������������

SUMMARY TABLES

Totals
2012

Other Independent Agencies:
Civilian Property Realignment Board:
Dispose of unneeded real property 
Postal Service:

Railroad Retirement Board (RRB):
.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

Total, other independent agencies ����

–145

2,318

484

1,428

2,628

1,474

3,114

–275

–275

–275

–275

8,332

10,346

–50
.........

–225
.........

–325
.........

–425
.........

–550
.........

–550
.........

–550
.........

–550
.........

–550
.........

–550
–550
......... –45,200

–2,075
.........

–4,825
–45,200

Multi-Agency:
Enact Spectrum License User Fee
and allow the FCC to auction
predominantly domestic satellite
services��������������������������������������������������
Adjust payment timing ����������������������������

51

Allow the electronic certification of
certain RRB benefits �������������������

Table S–10. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)

Establish hold harmless for Federal
poverty guidelines �������������������������������
Total, multi-agency ��������������������������
Total, health and other mandatory
proposals ������������������������������������������������
Total, mandatory initiatives and savings ���

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–50

–225

–325

–425

–550

–550

–550

–550

–550

–550 –45,750

–2,075

–50,025

52

Totals
2012

941 –4,046 –14,935 –30,849 –38,263 –51,550 –58,529 –66,815 –76,271 –81,471–135,229 –139,644 –557,959
941 –3,779 –11,172 –22,203 –24,826 –33,058 –34,466 –44,337 –61,172 –70,826 –127,191 –95,039 –433,031

Total, mandatory and receipt proposals,
including measures for jobs growth �������� 13,451 83,278 –87,846 –136,520 –165,439 –190,836 –201,500 –222,152 –249,805 –269,725 –335,904 –497,364 –1,776,450
Note: For receipt effects, positive figures indicate lower receipts. For outlay effects, positive figures indicate higher outlays. For net costs, positive figures indicate
higher deficits.
1
The estimates for this proposal include effects on outlays. The outlay effects included in the totals above are as follows:
2012

2

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

.........
.........
.........

615
567
.........

.........
1,519
5,402

.........
2,739
5,970

.........
4,070
6,415

.........
5,499
6,451

.........
7,012
6,887

.........
8,588
7,006

.........
10,216
7,467

.........
11,904
7,618

.........
13,859
8,158

615
14,394
24,238

615
65,973
61,374

.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
70
.........
1,576

134
1,405
304
977

205
1,441
319
309

212
1,469
331
113

218
1,496
340
72

220
1,518
351
.........

223
1,549
361
.........

231
1,581
368
.........

235
1,614
376
.........

238
1,644
383
.........

769
5,881
1,294
3,047

1,916
13,787
3,133
3,047

.........
.........

15
.........

85
23

123
24

118
27

103
27

88
29

77
.........

71
.........

50
.........

34
.........

444
101

764
130

.........

534

596

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

1,130

1,130

.........

–3

–7

–7

–7

–7

–8

–8

–8

–9

–9

–31

–73

.........
.........

21
3,395

427
10,865

437
11,560

445
13,193

452
14,651

459
16,556

468
18,264

477
20,403

486
22,274

495
24,802

1,782
53,664

4,167
155,963

The estimates for this proposal include effects on governmental receipts. The receipt effects included in the totals above are as follows:
2012

Reauthorize special assessment from
domestic nuclear utilities ����������������������������
Establish an AML hardrock reclamation fund����
Increase duck stamp fees ���������������������������������

.........
.........
.........

2013
–200
.........
–14

2014
–204
–200
–14

2015
–208
–200
–14

2016
–212
–200
–14

2017
–217
–200
–14

2018
–221
–200
–14

2019
–226
–200
–14

2020
–231
–200
–14

2021
–235
–200
–14

2022
–240
–200
–14

2013–
2017
–1,041
–800
–70

2013–
2022
–2,194
–1,800
–140

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Provide a temporary 10-percent tax credit for
new jobs and wage increases ����������������������
Reform and extend Build America Bonds �������
Extend AOTC ���������������������������������������������������
Provide for automatic enrollment in IRAs,
including an employer tax credit, and
doubling of the tax credit for small
employer plan start-up costs �����������������������
Expand EITC for larger families ���������������������
Expand child and dependent care tax credit ��
Extend and modify certain energy incentives 
Expand and simplify the tax credit provided
to qualified small employers for nonelective contributions to employee health
insurance ������������������������������������������������������
Designate Growth Zones ���������������������������������
Continue certain expiring provisions through
calendar year 2013 ���������������������������������������
Extend IRS math error authority in certain
circumstances �����������������������������������������������
Simplify the rules for claiming the EITC for
workers without qualifying children �����������
Total, outlay effects of receipt proposals ����

2013

Table S–10. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)

Strengthen unemployment insurance system
solvency ��������������������������������������������������������
Implement unemployment insurance
administration cap adjustment �������������������
Establish a mandatory surcharge for air
traffic services ����������������������������������������������
Impose a financial crisis responsibility fee �����
Implement IRS program integrity cap
adjustment ��������������������������������������������������
Restructure assistance to New York City,
provide tax incentives for transportation
infrastructure �����������������������������������������������
Authorize the BEP to conduct a coupon
program to distribute electronic currency
readers ����������������������������������������������������������
Increase levy authority for payments to
Medicare providers with delinquent tax
debt ���������������������������������������������������������������
Reform inland waterways funding �����������������
Increase employee contributions to CSRS and
FERS �������������������������������������������������������������
Total receipt effects of mandatory
proposals ��������������������������������������������������

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

–5,494 –17,121

.........

2,461

2,714

–6,913

–9,696

–5,687

–7,324

–6,599

–8,622

–5,255

.........

.........

.........

3

8

16

114

41

95

–104

.........
.........

–644
.........

–661
–3,224

–688
–6,404

–713
–6,441

–738
–6,708

–760
–6,975

–776
–7,237

–791
–7,576

.........

–421

–1,123

–2,251

–3,455

–4,694

–5,585

–6,200

.........

200

200

200

200

200

200

.........

–53

–12

–12

–12

–13

.........
.........

–50
–82

–66
–113

–68
–113

–70
–113

.........

–865

–1,656

–2,397

–2,347

.........

332

67

2013–
2017

2013–
2022
–50,415

27

240

–806
–7,910

–821 –3,444
–8,266 –22,777

–7,398
–60,741

–6,483

–6,661

–6,779 –11,944

–43,652

200

200

200

200

1,000

2,000

–13

–13

–14

–14

–14

–102

–170

–72
–113

–74
–113

–76
–113

–77
–113

–78
–113

–80
–114

–326
–534

–711
–1,100

–2,300

–2,252

–2,194

–2,132

–2,068

–1,995

–9,565

–20,206

–4,359 –19,065 –23,065 –20,540 –23,217 –23,407 –25,958 –23,258 –23,750 –66,697

–186,287

SUMMARY TABLES

Totals
2012

Net of income offsets.
4
The Administration also proposes to restore the estate, gift and GST tax parameters in effect in 2009. The total effect on receipts of allowing the Bush tax cuts to
expire for high-income taxpayers is as follows:
3

2012
Sunset the Bush tax cuts for those with
income in excess of $250,000 ($200,000
if single) ���������������������������������������������������
Restore the estate, gift and GST tax
parameters in effect in 2009 �������������������
Total, effect on receipts of allowing the
Bush tax cuts to expire for highincome taxpayers ��������������������������������

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

......... –53,482 –49,883 –61,441 –74,664 –84,222 –90,239 –96,053–102,024–108,455–115,162 –323,692

–835,625

.........

–9,732 –10,621 –11,623 –12,706 –13,886 –15,104 –16,456 –17,700 –40,708

–116,560

......... –53,735 –58,362 –71,173 –85,285 –95,845–102,945–109,939–117,128–124,911–132,862 –364,400

–952,185

–253

–8,479

The proposal is estimated to have zero receipt effect under the Administration’s current economic projections.
6
The Administration also proposes to repeal the domestic manufacturing deduction for oil and gas and other fossil fuel production. The effects of repeal on receipts,
which are included in the estimates of the Administration’s proposal to target the domestic production activities deduction, are as follows:
5

2012
.........

–569

2014
–978

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

–1,033

–1,094

–1,157

–1,220

–1,279

–1,337

–1,397

–1,459

2013–
2017
–4,831

2013–
2022
–11,523

53

Repeal domestic manufacturing tax
deduction for oil and gas production ������

2013

Table S–10. MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)

Repeal domestic manufacturing tax
deduction for coal and other hard
mineral fossil fuels ���������������������������������
Total, effect on receipts of repealing the
domestic manufacturing tax deduction
for oil and gas and other fossil fuels ���

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

.........

–12

–21

–23

–24

–25

–26

–28

–29

–30

–32

–105

–250

.........

–581

–999

–1,056

–1,118

–1,182

–1,246

–1,307

–1,366

–1,427

–1,491

–4,936

–11,773

54

Totals
2012

This proposal would also result in discretionary savings of $7.7 billion over 10 years.
8
Totals include the effects of interest on unemployment insurance loans to States.
9
This proposal has outlays of less than $500,000 per year. The total cost over 2013–2022 is $1 million.
10
This proposal has outlays of less than $500,000 per year. The total cost is $1 million from 2013–2017 and $2 million from 2013–2022.
11
This proposal has outlays of less than $500,000 per year. The total cost is $1 million from 2013–2017 and $3 million from 2013–2022.
12
This proposal has outlays less than $500,000 per year in years 2013–2018. The total cost is $2 million from 2013–2017.
13
This proposal has outlays of less than $500,000 per year. The total cost is $1 million over 2013–2017 and $3 milion over 2013–2022.
14
This proposal has outlays of less than $500,000 per year. The total cost over 2013–2022 is also less than $500,000.
15
This proposal has no estimated costs.
16
This proposal has outlays of less than $500,000 per year. The total savings are $1 million over 2013–2017 and $4 million over 2013–2022.
7

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Table S–11. OUTLAYS FOR MANDATORY PROGRAMS UNDER CURRENT LAW 1,2
(In billions of dollars)
Estimate
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

Human resources programs:
Education, training, employment and social services �����������������������������������������������������
Health ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Medicare ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Income security �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Social Security �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Veterans’ benefits and services ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, human resources programs �������������������������������������������������������������������������

–15
310
480
526
725
70
2,096

–2
300
469
492
769
69
2,096

1
320
500
468
813
80
2,182

–1
412
526
427
859
84
2,306

–4
474
547
431
909
89
2,445

–1
522
591
445
961
101
2,619

4
553
611
443
1,016
101
2,729

Other mandatory programs:
National defense ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
International affairs ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Energy �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Agriculture ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Commerce and housing credit ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Transportation ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Community and regional development ����������������������������������������������������������������������������
Justice ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
General government ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Undistributed offsetting receipts �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Other functions �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, other mandatory programs ��������������������������������������������������������������������������
Total, outlays for mandatory programs under current law ������������������������������������

6
–3
–2
14
–11
2
–*
2
6
–86
2
–70
2,026

7
–1
2
14
60
–*
*
3
12
–95
6
8
2,105

9
–*
1
20
–20
2
1
11
7
–93
4
–58
2,125

8
–*
1
16
–30
3
*
6
7
–93
4
–81
2,225

8
–1
–1
15
–36
3
–*
3
6
–95
3
–94
2,351

8
–1
–1
15
–35
3
–1
4
6
–95
4
–94
2,525

8
–1
–1
15
–29
3
–1
3
6
–100
4
–94
2,635

SUMMARY TABLES

2011
Actual

*$500 million or less
1
This table meets the requirements of Section 221(b) of the Legislative Reorganization Act of 1970.
2
Estimates are based on the Budget Enforcement Act (BEA) baseline. The BEA baseline differs in some instances from current law (see the chapter on “Current
Services Estimates” in the Analytical Perspectives volume of the 2013 Budget) and also from the adjusted baseline (see Table S–8).

55

Table S–12. FUNDING LEVELS FOR APPROPRIATED
(“DISCRETIONARY”) PROGRAMS BY CATEGORY
2010
2011
2012
2013
Actual Actual Enacted Request 2014
Discretionary Policy by Category:1
Security Agencies ����������������������������
Nonsecurity Agencies ����������������������

684.4
400.4

687.8
371.0

683.5
372.0

686.0
355.9

698.4
363.3

56

(Budget authority in billions of dollars)
Outyears
2015

711.6
370.1

2016

725.3
377.3

2017

741.0
385.5

2018

757.4
394.0

Totals
2019

774.5
402.9

2020

791.5
411.8

2021

808.5
420.6

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

829.5 3,562.3 7,523.7
430.9 1,852.2 3,912.4

Total, Base Discretionary Funding ���� 1,084.8 1,058.8 1,055.5 1,041.9 1,061.8 1,081.7 1,102.6 1,126.5 1,151.4 1,177.3 1,203.3 1,229.2 1,260.4 5,414.5 11,436.1
Discretionary Cap Adjustments and Other Funding (not included above):2
Overseas Contingency Operations3 
162.6 159.4
126.5
96.7
44.2
Disaster Relief ���������������������������������
......... .........
10.5
5.6 .........
Program Integrity4 ��������������������������
0.5
0.5
0.8
1.8
2.3
Other Emergency/Supplemental
Funding5 ��������������������������������������
9.6
–1.3
–*
......... .........

44.2
.........
2.8

44.2
.........
3.2

44.2
.........
3.7

44.2
.........
3.7

44.2
.........
3.8

44.2
.........
3.9

44.2
.........
4.0

44.2
.........
4.1

273.4
5.6
13.9

494.2
5.6
33.4

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

Grand Total, Discretionary Budget
Authority �������������������������������������������� 1,257.6 1,217.5 1,193.3 1,146.1 1,108.2 1,128.7 1,150.0 1,174.4 1,199.3 1,225.3 1,251.3 1,277.3 1,308.6 5,707.4 11,969.3
Memorandum, Grand Total Discretionary Budget Authority Adjusted for Inflation and Population:
Security �������������������������������������������������
943.7 903.5
840.9
788.2 721.4 712.6 704.4 696.9 689.5 682.5 675.4 668.0
Nonsecurity ������������������������������������������
441.6 395.0
388.1
357.9 355.2 351.7 348.3 345.5 342.2 339.1 335.9 332.7
Grand Total ������������������������������������������ 1,385.3 1,298.4 1,229.0 1,146.1 1,076.6 1,064.4 1,052.7 1,042.4 1,031.7 1,021.6 1,011.3 1,000.7

663.5 3,623.5 7,002.4
330.3 1,758.5 3,438.7
993.8 5,382.1 10,441.1

MID-SESSION REVIEW

* $50 million or less.
1
The 2013 Budget proposes discretionary funding levels within the caps included in Title I of the Budget Control Act of 2011 with separate categories for “security” and
“nonsecurity” programs for 2013 and a single discretionary category for 2014–2021. These caps have been adjusted downward to reflect the Administration’s proposal to
reclassify certain Surface Transportation programs as mandatory, as shown in the Preview Report in the Budget Process chapter of the Analytical Perspectives volume.
For purposes of this presentation, the security and nonsecurity categories are increased from 2013 based on growth in the overall discretionary category but do not reflect
specific policy decisions. For 2022, programs are assumed to grow at current services.
2
Where applicable, amounts in 2012 through 2021 are cap adjustment amounts designated pursuant to Section 251(b)(2) of the Balanced Budget and Emergency
Deficit Control Act of 1985 (BBEDCA), as amended. Amounts in 2010 and 2011 are not so designated but are shown for comparability purposes.
3
The Budget includes placeholder estimates of $44.2 billion per year for Overseas Contingency Operations (OCO) in 2014 and beyond. These estimates reflect the
Administration’s proposal to cap total OCO budget authority from 2013 to 2021 at $450 billion but do not reflect any specific decisions or assumptions about OCO spending in any particular year.
4
Amounts in 2012 include requested increased funding for BBEDCA program integrity adjustments. The Budget request for $140 million to fully fund SSA’s program
integrity cap adjustment for 2012 has been removed since the agency no longer has sufficient time to complete the additional program integrity work by the end of the
fiscal year.
5
Amounts are not designated as Emergency funding pursuant to Section 251(b)(2)(A) of the BBEDCA, as amended. These amounts include congressionally-designated emergencies, rescissions of funding provided in the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 (P.L. 111–5), and other supplemental funding.

(Budget authority in billions of dollars)
2010
2011
2012
2013
Actual Actual Enacted Request 2014

Outyears
2015

2016

2017

2018

Totals
2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

2013–
2022

Base Discretionary Funding by
Agency:1
Security Agencies:
Defense2 �������������������������������������������
Energy - National Nuclear Security
Administration2 ���������������������������
Homeland Security �������������������������
Veterans Affairs3 ������������������������������
State and Other International
Programs4,5 ����������������������������������
Intelligence Community
Management Account �����������������
Allowance for Security6 �������������������
Subtotal, Security Agencies7 ����������

528.3

530.5

525.4

533.6

545.9

555.9

567.3

579.3

592.4

605.4

617.9

634.2 2,728.2 5,757.4

9.9
39.8
53.1

10.5
41.9
56.4

11.0
39.7
58.5

11.5
39.5
61.0

10.8
39.8
63.1

11.0
40.5
64.2

11.2
41.2
65.5

11.4
41.9
66.9

11.7
42.8
68.3

11.9
43.7
69.8

12.2
44.7
71.3

12.4
45.7
72.8

12.8
46.8
74.8

55.9
202.8
320.6

116.8
426.5
677.7

50.8

50.1

43.3

48.0

48.9

49.8

50.8

51.9

53.0

54.2

55.3

56.5

58.0

249.3

526.3

0.7
.........
684.4

0.7
.........
687.8

0.5
.........
683.5

0.5
.........
686.0

0.6
1.8
698.4

0.6
–0.4
711.6

0.6
0.3
725.3

0.6
1.0
741.0

0.6
1.8
757.4

0.6
1.8
774.5

0.6
1.9
791.5

0.7
2.5
808.5

25.1
13.9
7.2
64.3

21.5
5.6
–0.7
68.3

22.0
7.7
0.9
67.4

21.4
8.0
1.0
69.8

22.6
8.3
1.2
70.3

23.1
8.6
1.3
71.2

23.5
8.9
1.5
72.2

24.0
9.4
1.8
73.3

24.6
10.4
2.6
74.4

25.1
11.5
3.6
75.5

25.7
17.7
9.6
76.7

26.2
9.8
1.6
77.9

26.9
9.7
1.2
79.2

114.6
43.3
5.9
356.9

243.0
102.3
25.0
740.6

16.6
84.4
42.8
12.1
27.6
13.5

15.2
78.5
37.1
11.7
26.9
12.5

15.3
78.3
36.6
11.3
26.8
13.2

15.6
71.7
34.5
11.4
17.9
12.0

16.3
79.8
39.2
11.9
27.7
12.0

16.6
81.3
40.0
12.1
28.3
11.3

16.9
82.9
40.8
12.4
28.8
11.5

17.3
84.7
41.7
12.6
29.5
11.8

17.6
86.5
42.6
12.9
30.1
12.0

18.0
88.5
43.6
13.2
30.8
12.3

18.4
90.4
44.6
13.5
31.5
12.5

18.8
92.4
45.5
13.7
32.2
12.8

19.3
94.6
46.7
14.1
33.0
13.0

82.6
400.3
196.1
60.3
132.2
58.6

174.8
852.6
419.1
127.7
289.8
121.2

0.1
14.7
13.4
5.5
10.3
0.4

0.1
13.7
13.4
4.9
8.7
–1.0

0.1
13.7
13.2
5.0
8.5
–1.0

0.1
13.8
12.5
4.7
8.3
–0.8

0.1
14.1
13.7
4.8
8.5
–1.2

0.1
14.4
14.1
4.9
8.7
–1.3

0.1
14.7
14.5
5.0
8.9
–1.3

0.1
15.0
14.9
5.1
9.1
–1.4

0.1
15.3
15.4
5.2
9.3
–1.4

0.1
15.7
15.9
5.3
9.5
–1.4

0.1
16.0
16.4
5.5
9.7
–1.4

0.1
16.4
16.9
5.6
9.9
–1.5

0.1
16.8
17.3
5.7
10.1
–1.5

0.6
72.0
69.8
24.6
43.5
–5.9

1.3
152.2
151.6
51.9
91.9
–13.2

18.7
6.9
0.8
8.9

18.4
6.8
0.7
8.6

17.8
7.0
0.9
8.8

17.7
7.4
0.9
9.0

18.0
7.5
1.0
9.2

18.4
7.6
1.0
9.4

18.7
7.8
1.0
9.5

19.1
8.0
1.0
9.7

19.6
8.1
1.0
9.9

20.0
8.3
1.1
10.1

20.4
8.5
1.1
10.4

20.9
8.7
1.1
10.6

21.4
8.9
1.1
10.8

92.0
38.3
4.9
46.8

194.2
80.8
10.4
98.6

0.7
2.9
6.1
2.2
2.6
12.8
829.5 3,562.3 7,523.7

57

Nonsecurity Agencies:
Agriculture4 �������������������������������������
Commerce ����������������������������������������
Census Bureau �����������������������������
Education ����������������������������������������
Energy (excluding National Nuclear
Security Administration) �������������
Health and Human Services8 ���������
Housing and Urban Development ���
Interior ��������������������������������������������
Justice ����������������������������������������������
Labor ������������������������������������������������
State and Other International
Programs4 ������������������������������������
Transportation ��������������������������������
Treasury ������������������������������������������
Corps of Engineers ��������������������������
Environmental Protection Agency ���
General Services Administration ���
National Aeronautics and Space
Administration ����������������������������
National Science Foundation ���������
Small Business Administration �����
Social Security Administration8 �����

530.1

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–13. FUNDING LEVELS FOR APPROPRIATED
(“DISCRETIONARY”) PROGRAMS BY AGENCY

Table S–13. FUNDING LEVELS FOR APPROPRIATED
(“DISCRETIONARY”) PROGRAMS BY AGENCY—Continued
2010
2011
2012
2013
Actual Actual Enacted Request 2014
Corporation for National and
Community Service ���������������������
Other Agencies ��������������������������������
Allowance for Nonsecurity6 �������������
Subtotal, Nonsecurity Discretionary
Budget Authority7 ���������������������������

58

(Budget authority in billions of dollars)
Outyears
2015

2016

2017

2018

Totals
2019

2020

2021

2022

2013–
2017

1.1
18.1
.........

1.0
18.2
.........

1.1
18.9
.........

1.1
19.3
–21.1

1.1
19.6
–20.4

1.1
20.0
–20.6

1.1
20.4
–20.8

1.2
20.8
–21.7

1.2
21.3
–22.7

1.2
21.8
–28.8

1.3
22.2
–20.8

1.3
22.7
–20.3

11.6
207.0
–197.2

400.4

371.0

372.0

355.9

363.3

370.1

377.3

385.5

394.0

402.9

411.8

420.6

430.9 1,852.2 3,912.4

44.2
.........
.........
.........

44.2
.........
.........
.........

44.2
.........
.........
.........

44.2
.........
.........
.........

44.2
.........
.........
.........

44.2
.........
.........
.........

44.2
.........
.........
.........

44.2
.........
.........
.........

273.4
88.5
.........
.........

494.2
88.5
.........
.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

8.2

8.2

44.2
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
2.8
0.4
*
1.3
1.1

44.2
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
3.2
0.4
*
1.6
1.2

44.2
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
3.7
0.4
*
2.0
1.3

44.2
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
3.7
0.4
*
2.0
1.3

44.2
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
3.8
0.5
*
2.0
1.3

44.2
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
3.9
0.5
*
2.1
1.3

44.2
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
4.0
0.5
*
2.1
1.3

44.2
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
4.1
0.5
*
2.2
1.3

176.6
5.6
.........
.........
5.5
.........
.........
.........
0.2
13.9
1.8
0.1
6.7
5.3

397.4
5.6
.........
.........
5.5
.........
.........
.........
0.2
33.4
4.2
0.3
17.1
11.8

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

MID-SESSION REVIEW

1.2
19.1
.........

Discretionary Cap Adjustments and Other Funding (not included above):9
Overseas Contingency
Operations10 ������������������������������������
162.6 159.4
126.5
96.7
44.2
Defense ��������������������������������������������
162.3 158.8
115.1
88.5 .........
Homeland Security �������������������������
0.2
0.3
0.3
......... .........
Justice ����������������������������������������������
0.1
0.1
.........
......... .........
State and Other International
Programs �������������������������������������
.........
0.3
11.2
8.2 .........
Overseas Contingency Operations
Outyears ��������������������������������������
......... .........
.........
.........
44.2
Disaster Relief �����������������������������������
......... .........
10.5
5.6 .........
Agriculture ��������������������������������������
......... .........
0.4
......... .........
Commerce ����������������������������������������
......... .........
0.2
......... .........
Homeland Security �������������������������
......... .........
6.4
5.5 .........
Housing and Urban Development ���
......... .........
0.1
......... .........
Transportation ��������������������������������
......... .........
1.7
......... .........
Corps of Engineers ��������������������������
......... .........
1.7
......... .........
Small Business Administration �����
......... .........
.........
0.2 .........
Program Integrity11 ��������������������������
0.5
0.5
0.8
1.8
2.3
Health and Human Services ����������
......... .........
0.3
0.3
0.3
Labor ������������������������������������������������
......... .........
.........
*
*
Treasury ������������������������������������������
......... .........
.........
0.7
1.0
Social Security Administration ������
0.5
0.5
0.5
0.8
0.9
Other Emergency/Supplemental
12
Funding ����������������������������������������
9.6
–1.3
–*
......... .........
Defense ��������������������������������������������
–1.9 .........
.........
......... .........
Energy ���������������������������������������������
–1.5 .........
.........
......... .........
Health and Human Services ����������
0.2
–1.3
.........
......... .........
Homeland Security �������������������������
5.5 .........
–*
......... .........
State and Other International
Programs �������������������������������������
6.1 .........
.........
......... .........
Small Business Administration �����
1.0 .........
.........
......... .........

5.5
98.1
–82.9

2013–
2022

Table S–13. FUNDING LEVELS FOR APPROPRIATED
(“DISCRETIONARY”) PROGRAMS BY AGENCY—Continued
2010
2011
2012
2013
Actual Actual Enacted Request 2014
Other Emergency/Supplemental
Funding ���������������������������������������

0.4

.........

.........

.........

.........

Outyears
2015
.........

2016
.........

2017
.........

2018
.........

Totals
2019
.........

2020
.........

2021
.........

2022
.........

2013–
2017
.........

2013–
2022
.........

Grand Total, Discretionary Budget
Authority �������������������������������������������� 1,257.6 1,217.5 1,193.3 1,146.1 1,108.2 1,128.7 1,150.0 1,174.4 1,199.3 1,225.3 1,251.3 1,277.3 1,308.6 5,707.4 11,969.3
Memorandum: 2013 Defense Request
2012– 2012–
versus 2012 Defense Request13 ������������
2016
2021
2012 Budget for Defense �����������������
n/a
n/a
553.0
570.7 586.4 598.2 610.6 621.6 632.8 644.1 655.7 667.5
n/a 3,540.4 6,140.6
Savings resulting from 2013 MSR
policy ��������������������������������������������
n/a
n/a
–22.5
–45.3 –52.8 –52.2 –54.7 –54.2 –53.5 –51.8 –50.3 –49.6
n/a –227.5 –486.9

59

* $50 million or less.
1
The 2013 Budget proposes discretionary funding levels within the caps included in Title I of the Budget Control Act of 2011 with separate categories for “security”
and “nonsecurity” programs for 2013 and a single discretionary category for 2014–2021. These caps have been adjusted downward to reflect the Administration’s proposal to reclassify certain Surface Transportation programs as mandatory, as shown in the Preview Report in the Budget Process chapter of the Analytical Perspectives
volume.
2
The Department of Defense (DOD) levels in 2014–2022 include funding that will be allocated, in annual increments, to the National Nuclear Security Administration
(NNSA). Current estimates by which DOD’s budget authority will decrease and NNSA’s will increase are, in millions of dollars: 2014: 677; 2015: 712; 2016: 767; 2017: 781;
2018: 798; 2013–2022: 7,109. The DOD and NNSA are reviewing NNSA’s outyear requirements and these will be included in future reports to the Congress.
3
The Veterans Affairs total is net of medical care collections.
4
The Security category for State and Other International Programs is comprised entirely of International Function 150. This includes funding for International Food
Aid programs in the Department of Agriculture.
5
The variances in the Security category for State and other international programs base funding are due in part to definitional differences in Overseas Contingency
Operations (OCO).
6
The 2013 Budget includes allowances, similar to the Function 920 allowances used in Budget Resolutions, to represent amounts to be allocated among the respective
agencies to reach the notional security and nonsecurity levels for 2014 and beyond. These notional levels are determined for illustrative purposes based on the overall
growth of the discretionary category being applied on a proportional basis to the 2013 security/nonsecurity caps but do not reflect specific policy decisions.
7
Amounts in 2010–2012 exclude changes in mandatory programs enacted in appropriations bills since those amounts have been rebased as mandatory, whereas
amounts in 2013 are net of these proposals. The individual agency chapters in this volume provide a comparative look at the gross funding levels from year to year.
8
Funding from the Hospital Insurance and Supplementary Medical Insurance trust funds for administrative expenses incurred by the Social Security Administration
that support the Medicare program are included in the Health and Human Service total and not in the Social Security Administration total.
9
Where applicable, amounts in 2012 through 2021 are cap adjustment amounts designated pursuant to Section 251(b)(2) of the Balanced Budget and Emergency
Deficit Control Act of 1985 (BBEDCA), as amended. Amounts in 2010 and 2011 are not so designated but are shown for comparability purposes.
10
The Budget includes placeholder estimates of $44.2 billion per year for OCO in 2014 and beyond. These estimates reflect the Administration’s proposal to cap total
OCO budget authority from FY 2013 to FY 2021 at $450 billion but do not reflect any specific decisions or assumptions about OCO spending in any particular year.
11
Amounts in 2012 include requested increased funding for BBEDCA program integrity adjustments for the Department of Health and Human Services (+$270 million). The Budget request for $140 million to fully fund SSA’s program integrity cap adjustment for 2012 has been removed since the agency no longer has sufficient time
to complete the additional program integrity work by the end of the fiscal year.
12
Amounts are not designated as Emergency funding pursuant to Section 251(b)(2)(A) of the BBEDCA, as amended. These amounts include congressionally-designated emergencies, rescissions of funding provided in the American Reinvestment and Recovery Act of 2009 (P.L. 111–5), and other supplemental funding.
13
These amounts exclude funding designated as OCO.

SUMMARY TABLES

(Budget authority in billions of dollars)

Table S–14. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FINANCING AND DEBT
(Dollar amounts in billions)
Estimate
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

60

Actual
2011

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Financing:
Unified budget deficit:
Primary deficit (+)/surplus (–) ����������������������������������������
Net interest ���������������������������������������������������������������������
Unified budget deficit ��������������������������������������������������

1,070
230
1,300

992
219
1,211

762
229
991

386
276
661

248
347
595

186
429
615

67
510
576

–40
583
543

–68
646
578

–101
705
604

–128
756
627

–152
804
652

As a percent of GDP �������������������������������������������������

8.7%

7.8%

6.1%

3.9%

3.3%

3.2%

2.9%

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

2.6%

–252

2

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

Direct loan accounts ������������������������������������������������

50

99

176

148

145

134

122

114

106

102

102

105

Guaranteed loan accounts ���������������������������������������

10

14

12

1

–*

1

*

1

1

–1

–5

–5

Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) equity
purchase accounts ���������������������������������������������

–2

–39

–19

–5

–3

–*

–2

–*

–*

–5

*

*

–1
5

–*
.........

–1
.........

–1
.........

–1
.........

–2
.........

–1
.........

–1
.........

–1
.........

–1
.........

–1
.........

–1
.........

Seigniorage on coins �������������������������������������������������������

–190
.........

75
.........

168
–*

142
–*

142
–*

134
–*

120
–*

114
–*

105
–*

95
–*

95
–*

99
–*

Total, other transactions affecting borrowing
from the public ��������������������������������������������������

Other transactions affecting borrowing from the public:
Changes in financial assets and liabilities:1
Change in Treasury operating cash balance ��������������
Net disbursements of credit financing accounts:

Net purchases of non-Federal securities by the
National Railroad Retirement Investment Trust
(NRRIT) ��������������������������������������������������������������������
Net change in other financial assets and liabilities2 ����
Subtotal, changes in financial assets and liabilities ����

75

168

142

141

133

119

114

105

95

95

99

1,109

1,286

1,158

803

736

749

696

657

684

699

723

752

Changes in Debt Subject to Statutory Limitation:
Change in debt held by the public ��������������������������������������
Change in debt held by Government accounts �������������������
Change in other factors �������������������������������������������������������
Total, change in debt subject to statutory limitation ����

1,109
126
*
1,236

1,286
157
1
1,443

1,158
118
1
1,277

803
183
1
987

736
205
1
943

749
176
2
927

696
141
1
838

657
167
1
825

684
155
1
840

699
150
1
850

723
134
2
859

752
105
2
859

Debt Subject to Statutory Limitation, End of Year:
Debt issued by Treasury ������������������������������������������������������
Adjustment for discount, premium, and coverage3 ������������
Total, debt subject to statutory limitation4 ��������������������

14,737
9
14,747

16,179
11
16,190

17,455
12
17,467

18,440
13
18,454

19,382
14
19,396

20,307
16
20,323

21,144
16
21,161

21,968
17
21,985

22,808
18
22,825

23,658
18
23,675

24,516
18
24,534

25,375
18
25,392

MID-SESSION REVIEW

–190

Total, requirement to borrow from the public
(equals change in debt held by the public) �����

Table S–14. FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FINANCING AND DEBT—Continued
(Dollar amounts in billions)
Estimate
2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2020

2021

2022

Debt Outstanding, End of Year:
Gross Federal debt:5
Debt issued by Treasury �������������������������������������������������
Debt issued by other agencies ����������������������������������������
Total, gross Federal debt ���������������������������������������������

14,737
27
14,764

16,179
28
16,207

17,455
28
17,483

18,440
29
18,469

19,382
29
19,410

20,307
28
20,336

21,144
28
21,172

21,968
27
21,996

22,808
27
22,834

23,658
26
23,683

24,516
24
24,540

25,375
22
25,397

Held by:
Debt held by Government accounts �������������������������������
Debt held by the public6 ��������������������������������������������������
As a percent of GDP �����������������������������������������������������

4,636
10,128
67.7%

4,793
11,414
73.5%

4,911
12,572
77.5%

5,093
13,375
78.6%

5,299
14,112
78.4%

5,475
14,860
77.9%

5,616
15,556
77.1%

5,783
16,213
76.3%

5,938
16,896
75.9%

6,088
17,595
75.6%

6,222
18,318
75.4%

6,327
19,070
75.1%

Debt Held by the Public Net of Financial Assets:
Debt held by the public ��������������������������������������������������������

10,128

11,414

12,572

13,375

14,112

14,860

15,556

16,213

16,896

17,595

18,318

19,070

Less financial assets net of liabilities:
Treasury operating cash balance �����������������������������������

58

60

60

60

60

60

60

60

60

60

60

60

Credit financing account balances:
Direct loan accounts ����������������������������������������������������
Guaranteed loan accounts �������������������������������������������
TARP equity purchase accounts ���������������������������������
Government-sponsored enterprise preferred stock �������
Non-Federal securities held by NRRIT ��������������������������
Other assets net of liabilities �����������������������������������������
Total, financial assets net of liabilities �����������������������

718
–22
75
133
21
–25
958

816
–9
36
151
21
–25
1,050

992
3
17
160
20
–25
1,227

1,140
4
11
162
19
–25
1,371

1,286
4
9
162
17
–25
1,513

1,420
5
9
162
16
–25
1,646

1,542
5
7
162
15
–25
1,766

1,656
7
7
162
14
–25
1,880

1,762
8
7
162
12
–25
1,985

1,864
6
2
162
11
–25
2,080

1,966
1
2
162
10
–25
2,175

2,071
–4
2
162
9
–25
2,275

9,170
61.3%

10,363
66.7%

11,345
69.9%

12,004
70.6%

12,599
70.0%

13,214
69.3%

13,791
68.4%

14,333
67.4%

14,911
67.0%

15,515
66.7%

16,143
66.4%

16,795
66.2%

Debt held by the public net of financial assets �������
As a percent of GDP ���������������������������������������������

61

* $500 million or less.
1
A decrease in the Treasury operating cash balance (which is an asset) is a means of financing a deficit and therefore has a negative sign; that is, the reduction in cash
balances reduces the amount that would otherwise be borrowed from the public. An increase in checks outstanding (which is a liability) is also a means of financing a
deficit and therefore also has a negative sign.
2
Includes checks outstanding, accrued interest payable on Treasury debt, uninvested deposit fund balances, allocations of special drawing rights, and other liability
accounts; and, as an offset, cash and monetary assets (other than the Treasury operating cash balance), other asset accounts, and profit on sale of gold.
3
Consists mainly of debt issued by the Federal Financing Bank (which is not subject to limit), debt held by the Federal Financing Bank, the unamortized discount (less
premium) on public issues of Treasury notes and bonds (other than zero-coupon bonds), and the unrealized discount on Government account series securities.
4
The statutory debt limit is $16,394 billion, as increased after January 27, 2012.
5
Treasury securities held by the public and zero-coupon bonds held by Government accounts are almost all measured at sales price plus amortized discount or less
amortized premium. Agency debt securities are almost all measured at face value. Treasury securities in the Government account series are otherwise measured at
face value less unrealized discount (if any).
6
At the end of 2011, the Federal Reserve Banks held $1,664.7 billion of Federal securities and the rest of the public held $8,463.5 billion. Debt held by the Federal
Reserve Banks is not estimated for future years.

SUMMARY TABLES

Actual
2011

EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
WASHINGTON, D.C.