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Mid-Session Review
Budget of the U.S. Government

Fiscal Year 2010

Office of Management and Budget
www.budget.gov

Mid-Session Review
Budget of the U.S. Government

Fiscal Year 2010

Office of Management and Budget
www.budget.gov

EXECUTIVE OFFICE OF THE PRESIDENT
OFFICE OF MANAGEMENT AND BUDGET
WASHINGTON D. C. 20503

THE DIRECTOR

August 25, 2009

The Honorable Nancy Pelosi
Speaker of the House of Representatives
Washington, DC 20510
Dear Madam Speaker:
	
Section 1106 of Title 31, United States Code, requests that the President send to the
Congress a supplemental update of the Budget that was transmitted to the Congress earlier in
the year. This supplemental update of the Budget, commonly known as the Mid-Session Review,
contains revised estimates of receipts, outlays, budget authority, and the budget deficit for fiscal
years 2009 through 2019.
Sincerely,

Peter R. Orszag
Director

Enclosure

Identical Letter Sent to the President of the Senate

TABLE OF CONTENTS
Page
Summary.............................................................................................................................   1
Economic Assumptions.......................................................................................................   9
Receipts.............................................................................................................................   15
Expenditures.....................................................................................................................   19
Summary Tables...............................................................................................................   23

i

LIST OF CHARTS
Page
Policy Receipts by Source in 2010. ....................................................................................  4
.
Policy Outlays by Category in 2010...................................................................................  5
Composition of Policy Outlays and Receipts...................................................................  32

LIST OF TABLES
Table 1.	

Page
Changes from the May Budget..................................................................  7
.

Table 2.	

Economic Assumptions ............................................................................  11
.

Table 2a.	

Economic Assumptions Adjusted for NIPA Revisions ............................  12

Table 3.	

Comparison of Economic Assumptions....................................................  13

Table 4.	

Change in Receipts...................................................................................  16

Table 5.	

Change in Outlays....................................................................................  20

Table S–1.	

Budget Totals............................................................................................  25

Table S–2.	

Effect of Budget Proposals on Projected Deficits....................................  26

Table S–3.	

Baseline Projection of Current Policy by Category . ...............................  28
.

Table S–4.	

Proposed Budget by Category..................................................................  30

Table S–5.	

Proposed Budget by Category as a Percent of GDP................................  33

Table S–6.	
	

Proposed Budget by Category Adjusted for Inflation
and Population Growth............................................................................  35
.

Table S–7.	
	

Bridge from Budget Enforcement Act Baseline to
Baseline Projection of Current Policy......................................................  37

Table S–8.	
	

Change in the Baseline Projection of Current Policy
from May Budget......................................................................................  38

Table S–9.	

Change in Proposed Budget from May Budget.......................................  40

Table S–10.	 Change in Proposed Budget by Category from May Budget..................  41
Table S–11.	 Mandatory and Receipt Proposals...........................................................  43
Table S–12.	 Bridge Between Total Mandatory and Receipt Proposals
	
and PAYGO Scorekeeping........................................................................  55
Table S–13.	 Outlays for Mandatory Programs Under Current Law .........................  56
Table S–14.	 Funding Levels for Appropriated (“Discretionary”)
	
Programs by Agency.................................................................................  57
Table S–15.	 Federal Government Financing and Debt...............................................  60
iii

SUMMARY
When the President took office, the Nation
was experiencing the worst financial and economic crisis since the Great Depression. This
decline was not simply the result of a normal
downturn in the business cycle; also contributing to it were irresponsible choices made by
our public and private institutions that generated a meltdown in our credit and capital
markets. As a result, the economy was in the
midst of a severe collapse. In the fourth quarter of 2008, real gross domestic product (GDP)
was declining at a rate of 5.4 percent per year;
household net worth fell by approximately
$5 trillion or at a rate of 30 percent per year;
consumer confidence had fallen to a 40-year
low; and the country had lost 1.7 million jobs,
which at that point was the largest quarterly
decline since 1945. Many workers saw their
retirement accounts dwindle in value, forcing some to delay retirement. As the housing
market imploded, others found themselves
overextended with mortgage payments they
could no longer afford.
The economic downturn, combined with the
previous Administration’s decisions not to offset in particular three large domestic initiatives (the tax cuts of 2001 and 2003 as well
as the Medicare prescription drug benefit),
meant that in January 2009, the President
faced a deficit of $1.3 trillion, or 9.2 percent of
GDP, along with a need to bolster macroeconomic demand to prevent the economy from
slipping into a depression.
Twenty-eight days after taking office,
the President signed into law the American
Recovery and Reinvestment Act (ARRA) to
stimulate demand, create and save jobs, and
begin building a new foundation for future
economic growth. The Act was to take effect
over a two-year period with 70 percent of all
funds disbursed within the first 18 months.
ARRA has already provided tax relief and increased unemployment benefits, which have
helped arrest the decline in consumer spending that occurred in the second half of 2008.
In addition, the Act has provided incentives
to revitalize business investment and grants
to State and local governments to relieve the
strain on their budgets. In April and May,
real per capita disposable personal income

increased, mainly because of the tax reductions and one-time transfer payments included in the Act. Finally, ARRA provides funds
for short-term and long-term investments
that will lay a new foundation for long-term
economic growth, creating new jobs and growing industries.
The Administration contemporaneously
acted to address the financial crisis and get
credit flowing again through the Financial
Stability Plan, and worked to help homeowners facing foreclosure through the Homeowner
Affordability and Stability Plan. In addition,
the Administration took action to forestall
the failure of two of the Nation’s largest automobile manufacturers and to strengthen the
non-bank credit market. All together, these
efforts—along with the ARRA—increased the
deficit in the short run. In fact, 64 percent of
the current deficit is directly attributable to
rescue and recovery efforts and other countercyclical programs that were essential in preventing a deeper and more costly recession.
Despite the demands put on the treasury to
respond aggressively to avoid economic collapse, the President in February put forward
a Budget that re-oriented the Nation back to a
path toward fiscal discipline. This began with
an honest assessment of the country’s fiscal
situation by accounting transparently for the
cost of overseas military operations, natural
disasters, expected increases in Medicare
payments to physicians, and the real costs
of preventing the alternative minimum tax
from burdening middle-class taxpayers. The
President’s Budget put the Nation on track to
bring non-defense discretionary spending to
its lowest level, as a share of GDP, since 1962.
Moreover, the Budget included a separate volume of program terminations and reductions,
detailing 121 programs that do not work or
are duplicative and should be eliminated or
reduced.
CURRENT CONDITIONS
Since the Budget was released, the economic outlook has changed dramatically. While
the danger of the economy immediately
falling into a deep depression has receded,
1

2
the American economy is still in the midst
of a serious economic downturn. However,
there are hopeful signs. The equity markets
have rebounded, and the credit markets
have thawed as measured, for example, by
the TED spread, the difference between the
interest rate that banks charge each other
on a three-month loan and the rate at which
the Federal Government can borrow over the
same period. GDP, while not yet increasing,
is not decreasing at the steep rates of the first
quarter of this year. And job losses, while unacceptably high, are no longer occurring at
the same steep rates. The personal savings
rate has been sharply increasing, which, although contributing to weak consumer demand, bodes well for longer-term economic
growth. Business-sector productivity also
has held up relatively well considering the
decline in total output.
Earlier this year, instability in the financial system was so great that the
Administration chose to include in its
Budget a placeholder for a Financial
Stabilization Reserve to support $750 billion in asset purchases should additional
emergency assistance be needed. In recent
months, the Administration’s Financial
Stability Plan—by helping to restore confidence in the banking system, putting in
place new financing mechanisms to restart credit markets, and working to mitigate the housing crisis—has contributed to
greater stabilization of the financial sector.
The Federal Reserve, the Federal Deposit
Insurance Corporation (FDIC), the Office
of the Comptroller of the Currency, and the
Office of Thrift Supervision completed the
Supervisory Capital Assessment Program
in May. This review of 19 bank holding companies with assets exceeding $100 billion
was done to make sure that they are adequately capitalized over the next two years
even if economic conditions deteriorate beyond expectations. The holding companies
that were identified as deficient have put
forward plans to secure the capital identified by the assessment, and several have
raised capital from private sources. As of
June 17, 2009, the Treasury received repayments of $70 billion under the Capital
Purchase Program, a program established
in 2008 to boost bank capital by purchasing senior preferred stock from financial
institutions.

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Given the increased stability in the financial sector and the influx of private capital
into the banking system, the Administration
believes that a placeholder for additional financial stabilization efforts in the President’s
Budget is no longer warranted. In addition,
projected outlays for deposit insurance have
been reduced by $78 billion in 2009 due to
improved conditions in the banking industry.
As a result, the budget deficit for 2009 is now
projected to be $1,580 billion, $262 billion
lower than estimated in May, or 11.2 percent
of GDP, as compared to 12.9 percent projected
in May.
The Administration’s efforts also have
helped stabilize the American automobile
industry, save jobs, and helped consumers access credit to purchase cars. The two
major auto manufacturers that received assistance through the Troubled Asset Relief
Program (TARP), Chrysler and General
Motors, have completed difficult but necessary restructuring of their business operations, and emerged from bankruptcy on June
10, 2009, and July 10, 2009, respectively.
The Government will continue to monitor
its investment in these companies with the
goal of selling the Government investments
in these firms as soon as practicable and recouping the investment made by taxpayers
in these companies.
Despite signs of progress, it is now evident
that the economic crisis was more severe
than was apparent when the President was
constructing his budget. The President’s
Budget was based on an economic forecast
using data available as of late January. The
forecast, along with private forecasters at
the time who projected similar growth rates,
did not fully anticipate the severity of the
recession.
The new economic projections made for the
Mid-Session Review are based on information available through early June 2009. For
2009-2010, the Administration’s projected
rate of real GDP growth and unemployment
rate are close to the forecast of the Blue Chip
Consensus (an average of about 50 privatesector forecasts). Real GDP is expected to decline by 2.8 percent this year and increase by
2.0 percent in 2010. In line with recent recessions, we estimate that job creation will lag
economic growth by several months and proj-

3

SUMMARY

ect that the unemployment rate will peak at
a rate above 10.0 percent on a monthly basis
before beginning to decline in the middle of
2010. Thereafter, the Administration expects
a relatively long economic expansion, which
will proceed most rapidly in 2011-2014 and
eventually lower the unemployment rate
to below 6 percent. (See the next section of
this document for a more detailed discussion
of the Administration’s revised economic assumptions.)
Along with the vast majority of privatesector forecasters, the Administration anticipates that economic activity will pick up later
this year. As a result, the budget deficit is projected to fall in 2010, to $1,502 billion, or 10.4
percent of GDP. Deficits are projected to continue to fall for the next five years from 2011
through 2015 as the economy recovers from
the recession, reaching $739 billion in 2015,
or 3.9 percent of GDP. However, because of
the revised economic forecast, they will not
fall as much as had been previously projected
in May.
Legislative Developments
Since the introduction of the President’s
Budget, several pieces of legislation have
been enacted that affect the Budget.
The Congress passed 2009 supplemental
appropriations for the wars in Iraq and
Afghanistan; however, the enacted legislation
includes $14 billion more than the $88 billion requested by the President in the Budget
and in an amendment to the Budget. The additional amount reflects $7.3 billion more for
overseas contingency operations and international programs, $4.2 billion more for preparation and response to an influenza outbreak,
and $1 billion more to promote the purchase
of fuel-efficient vehicles.
The Administration is also pleased that
the Congress passed a provision that allows
the FDIC to restore its reserve ratio over
time without having to increase premiums
charged to insured banks in 2009 and 2010,
when bank earnings are likely to be strained.
As proposed in the Budget, FDIC premiums
will begin to increase steadily beginning in
2011. In addition, the Administration appreciates that the Congress passed a provision to allow the National Credit Union

Administration to delay the scheduled increase in member credit union premiums to
2011 from 2010.
The Administration continues to urge
the Congress to maintain its progress toward passing a health insurance reform bill
during the first session of this Congress.
The President is committed to health insurance reform that is deficit neutral and
that constrains costs, expands access,
and improves quality. As discussed below, the Administration continues to identify cost-saving initiatives that will allow
health reform to be deficit neutral. Because
of policy proposals put forward by the
Administration, this Mid-Session Review
now identifies a total of $622 billion in savings over 10 years in Medicare and Medicaid
(increased from $309 billion in the Budget),
which can be used to ensure that health reform will be deficit neutral. This brings the
Health Reserve Fund total to $954 billion
over 10 years.
In addition to health insurance reform,
the Administration continues to urge the
Congress to pass a clean energy bill that will
allow the United States to lead the world in
the research and development of clean energy technology. Clean energy investments
will help to produce much-needed jobs in the
United States, provide a clean source of energy for decades to come, decrease our dependence on foreign oil, and reduce the Nation’s
greenhouse gas pollution.
MID-SESSION UPDATE
The Mid-Session Review reflects action on
the Administration’s budget proposals and
other legislation, and other policy changes
since the Budget was released. For example,
as noted above, the updated Budget estimates
reflected in the Mid-Session Review no longer contain a placeholder for further financial
stabilization efforts. In addition, the MidSession Review incorporates several changes to the baseline, in accordance with the
Administration’s statutory Pay-As-You-Go
bill, which was transmitted to the Congress
on June 9, 2009.
Immediately below is a summary of the key
factors that have affected the budget estimates since the Budget was released in May.

4

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Receipts

Outlays

The economic downturn continues to have a
negative effect on tax receipts, with 2009 receipts projected to be $2,074 billion, $83 billion
lower than projected in May and 18 percent
lower than actual receipts in 2008. As a percent of GDP, 2009 tax receipts are projected to
equal 14.7 percent, significantly lower than the
40-year historical average of 18.3 percent and
the lowest since 1950. The biggest factor contributing to the change in the 2009 tax receipt
estimates since May was a technical reestimate for both individual and corporate income
taxes to reflect recent experience.

Outlays for 2009 are expected to be $3,653
billion, or $345 billion lower than forecast
in May. This reduction in 2009 outlays is
primarily because of the elimination of the
placeholder for further financial stabilization
efforts, as discussed above, and lower outlays
for deposit insurance, which reflect fewer
bank failures and increases in the use of losssharing agreements. These reductions in outlays are partially offset by increased outlays
for net interest. In addition, as a result of the
revised economic outlook, unemployment insurance benefits, including the expansions enacted in the Recovery Act, are now projected
to cost more in 2009 than projected in May.

Economic growth is forecast to resume later
this year, although the growth is expected to
begin more slowly than forecast in February,
leading to receipts of $2,264 billion in 2010, $68
billion lower than projected in May. In 2011,
receipts are expected to grow to 17.1 percent
of GDP, and beginning in 2012, receipts are
expected to reach their pre-recession levels as a
share of GDP and increase modestly thereafter.

Outlays for 2010 are now expected to be
$3,766 billion, or $175 billion higher than
forecast in May. Outlays for 2010 are expected
to increase because of a shift in certain TARP
outlays from 2009 to 2010, an increase in unemployment insurance benefits, and increases in interest on Government debt resulting

Policy Receipts by Source in 2010
Unemployment
Insurance
1.4%

Excise
Taxes
1.8%

Medicare
Payroll
Taxes
5.0%

Other
Miscellaneous
Receipts
2.7%

Borrowing and
Other Net Financing
39.9%
Social Security
Payroll Taxes
17.6%
Individual
Income Taxes
27.3%

Corporation
Income Taxes
4.3%

5

SUMMARY

from the revised economic outlook. For 2011
and beyond, outlays are now forecast to be approximately $100 billion higher in each year
than forecast in May. The increase in outlays
is due primarily to higher interest outlays for
debt held by the public and the budgetary effect of dropping the placeholder for further
financial stabilization efforts, which results
in lower interest collections from the nonbudgetary credit financing account.
Deficit
Removal of the placeholder for further
financial stabilization efforts and lower
deposit insurance outlays are the primary
sources of the reduction in outlays that are
forecast for 2009; these lower outlays are
projected to result in a lower deficit for 2009
than was forecast in May. The 2009 deficit
is now expected to be $1,580 billion, or 11.2
percent of GDP, down from $1,841 billion, or
12.9 percent of GDP, projected in May. The
updated projections show the deficit falling to

5.0 percent of GDP in 2012 and 4.0 percent
of GDP in 2016. Beyond 2009, these deficits
are larger than projected in May, largely as a
result of the revised economic outlook. Certain
spending programs, such as unemployment
insurance, automatically increase and
revenues automatically decline as a result of
a deeper-than-expected recession. Although
this helps to ameliorate the economic
downturn by stimulating demand, it also
leads to higher short-term deficits.
The medium-term deficit is overwhelmingly
the consequence of policies and resulting deficits the Administration inherited. By 2019, the
difference between non-interest spending and
revenue, which is also known as the “primary
deficit,” is only 0.6 percent of GDP, but interest
payments are 3.4 percent of GDP. These interest payments almost entirely represent the
cost of the debt accumulated by past administrations and the need to run short-run deficits
to help the economy recover from the worst
downturn since the Great Depression.

Policy Outlays by Category in 2010

Non-Defense
Discretionary
18.5%

Defense including
Overseas
Contingency
Operations
19.0%

Social Security
18.6%

Allowance for
Disaster Costs
0.2%
Net
Interest
5.2%
Other Mandatory
Programs
18.9%

Medicare
12.0%

Medicaid
7.6%

6
At the end of 2009, debt held by the public
net of financial assets is projected to be 48.0
percent of GDP, 1.4 percentage points lower
than the 49.4 percent projected in May. Just
as the deficit for 2010 and beyond is projected
to be higher than projected in May largely
because of the revised economic forecast,
Government debt held by the public net of financial assets is also projected to be higher.
By the end of the projection period, the ratio
of debt net of financial assets to GDP is projected to reach 68.9 percent of GDP.
Persistent deficits of 4 percent of GDP are
higher than desirable. The Administration
will be proposing further steps in the 2011
Budget to reduce the deficit and stabilize the
debt-to-GDP ratio at a prudent level.
THE LONG-TERM FISCAL CHALLENGE
The economic crisis and record budget deficits that the President inherited upon taking
office will result in continued deficit spending.
Although the deficit is projected to decline
from current levels to about 4 percent of GDP
by 2015 and remain at this level for the rest
of the decade, this stability is only temporary,
and the long-term deficit outlook remains
daunting.
The Federal Government’s long-term fiscal
shortfall is driven primarily by escalating
health care costs. If health care costs continue to grow at their historical rates, Medicare
and Medicaid will double as a share of spending on Federal programs within the next 30
years. These growth rates are simply unsustainable and are why slowing the growth in
health care costs is the single most important

MID-SESSION REVIEW

step we can take to put the Nation on firm
fiscal footing. For example, slowing the rate
of health care cost growth by 0.15 percentage points per year would produce the same
amount of savings for the Federal budget as
closing the 75-year Social Security shortfall.
This is why the President is committed to
reforming the health insurance system this
year. The Mid-Session Review identifies a
total of $954 billion over 10 years to pay for
health reform, about two-thirds from savings in Medicare and Medicaid and one-third
from revenue measures. The Administration
is committed to passing health insurance reform that is deficit neutral over the next 10
years and that is on a stable trajectory as the
decade ends. In addition to paying for health
insurance reform, the Administration is committed to transformational steps that will
move health care to a system that rewards
the provision of better care, not more care;
bend the health care cost curve; and substantially reduce long-term Federal deficits. That
is why it put forward a proposal to establish
an Independent Medicare Advisory Council,
an independent, non-partisan body of doctors
and other health experts with the authority to
make recommendations about Medicare payment rates and other reforms.
Although health care is at the core of the
country’s long-term fiscal problem, the fiscal
situation will demand more action once the
economic recovery is fully underway. That is
why the President is committed to addressing the shortfall in the Social Security system
and the other important factors affecting the
long-term fiscal situation.

7

SUMMARY

Table 1.  CHANGES FROM THE MAY BUDGET
(In billions of dollars)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010- 20102014 2019
2010 May Budget deficit ������������������������������������������ 1,841 1,258 929 557 512 536 528 645 675 688 779
Percent of GDP ����������������������������������������������������� 12.9% 8.5% 6.0% 3.4% 2.9% 2.9% 2.7% 3.2% 3.2% 3.1% 3.4%
Enacted legislation and policy changes:
2009 Supplemental Appropriations Act �������

5
8
2
1
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
11
12
Financial stabilization reserve:
Direct outlays �������������������������������������������� –250 ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Credit interest effects �������������������������������
25
42
34
27
23
22
20
18
17
14
12 148 230

Other legislative and policy changes ������������
Debt service ����������������������������������������������������

–8
–*

–9
–2

–4
–4

–1
–5

3
–5

8
–4

15
–3

*
–2

*
–2

*
–1

*
–*

–3
–21

12
–29

Subtotal, policy changes �������������������������������������� –228

39

28

22

21

26

32

16

15

14

12

135

225

Economic and technical reestimates:
Receipts ����������������������������������������������������������
Discretionary programs ���������������������������������

83
–33

68
11

94
11

130
3

144
–2

116
–*

81
–*

51
*

36
*

31
–*

39
*

553
23

791
23

Mandatory:
Social Security �������������������������������������������
Medicaid ����������������������������������������������������
Unemployment compensation �����������������
Deposit insurance ��������������������������������������
Troubled Asset Relief Program �����������������
Refundable tax credits ������������������������������
Other ����������������������������������������������������������

2
–4
17
–78
–24
8
8

6
–5
54
–19
62
7
–3

7
–2
31
10
1
2
–10

4
*
20
23
–1
5
–15

1
3
20
21
–2
5
–13

–2
5
15
19
–*
5
–11

–6
7
10
17
–*
3
–8

–9
9
8
1
*
2
–2

–11 –12 –13
11
12
12
6
5
3
*
*
*
* ......... .........
2
2
2
–2
4
3

15
1
139
53
60
24
–53

–37
52
172
73
60
34
–59

–88
5
–2
–34

107
21
–3
205

59
3
–1
166

66
17
–*
216

61
38
–*
241

52
50
–*
217

40
14
10
2
1 345 413
59
68
74
80
87 129 497
–* ......... ......... ......... .........
–5
–5
179 133 120 114 127 1,045 1,718

Total, changes ����������������������������������������������������������� –262

243

194

238

263

242

211

Total mandatory ��������������������������������������
Net interest 1���������������������������������������������������
Allowances for future disaster costs �������������
Subtotal, economic and technical reestimates ����

150

135

127

139 1,181 1,943

Mid-Session Review deficit �������������������������������������� 1,580 1,502 1,123 796 775 778 739 795 810 815 917
Percent of GDP ����������������������������������������������������� 11.2% 10.4% 7.4% 5.0% 4.6% 4.3% 3.9% 4.0% 3.9% 3.7% 4.0%
Note: Positive figures represent higher outlays or lower receipts.
* $500 million or less.
1
Includes debt service on all reestimates.

ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
The economic forecast upon which the 2010
Budget was based was completed at a time
when the economy was changing rapidly and
when statistical information on conditions
in the United States and world economy for
2008:Q4 was either preliminary or not yet
released. 1 Over the winter and spring, the
incoming information indicated that the economic contraction was even more severe than
had been predicted by both Administration
and outside forecasters. For this reason, the
Administration has revised downward the
economic assumptions for the Mid-Session
Review. Despite the worsened conditions going into this year, the Administration continues to expect economic output to begin to turn
around in the second half of 2009. However,
because of the normal cyclical behavior of employment and because growth in late 2009 is
predicted to be modest, job creation will lag
the turnaround in economic growth for some
period of time.
RECENT DEVELOPMENTS
The decline in real gross domestic product
(GDP) from 2008:Q2 through 2009:Q1 was
one of the steepest three-quarter declines in
U.S. history; real GDP declined at a 4.8 percent annual rate. All of the major components
declined except for net exports. The decline in
real GDP was a response to the extremely severe disruptions of world credit markets and
the related loss of wealth from lower stock
and home prices.
Following the policy interventions discussed below, the state of freefall has eased,
some sectors of the economy have started to
expand again, and stability is returning to
the financial system (for example, the spreads
between U.S. Government rates and private
interest rates have narrowed). Credit standards remain tight—the Federal Reserve’s
Senior Loan Officer Opinion Survey indicates
that most respondents tightened their business lending policies over the three months
ending in April 2009, but the number doing so
1 

In this document, economic performance is measured in terms
of calendar years. Budget figures are measured in terms of fiscal
years.

edged down for the second consecutive survey
in the most recent release (April). The stock
market has rebounded from its March lows,
with the major indices up more than 40 percent since then.
The housing market remains depressed, but
there are also indications of stability in the
housing market, and some measures of house
prices appear to be declining less severely. In
December 2008, the Federal Housing Finance
Agency national house price index was 199.2;
it was 199.8 in May, almost the same level.
Existing home sales were larger in June than in
December. Housing permits were at an all-time
low in April, but they rose in May and June.
Inventory investment declined at an annualized rate of $156 billion in the second
quarter, reducing real GDP growth by 0.8
percentage points. Inventory swings continue
to have large cyclical effects despite the relatively small volume of inventory investment.
Inventories are not likely to continue shrinking at this rate and even a moderation in the
rate of decline will make a positive contribution to growth in the second half of 2009.
The policy response to the recession has
been significant, sustained, and speedy. The
American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
(ARRA) will disburse most of its funds in
2009 and 2010. The withholding schedules
have been adjusted for the Making Work Pay
tax credit, boosting disposable income for the
largest number of working Americans ever.
The Recovery Act included a total of $144 billion for State fiscal relief and $81 billion for
aid to people directly hurt by the recession
(through programs such as unemployment
insurance and nutritional assistance). Both
of these types of spending started almost immediately following passage of the bill. The
State fiscal relief will continue at the same
rate over the next six quarters; the aid to
people hurt by the recession is concentrated
in the 2009 calendar year. Total discretionary
funding under the Act amounts to $283 billion, of which $39 billion will be spent before
September 30, 2009, with the rest being paid
out in 2010 ($122 billion), 2011 ($76 billion),
and smaller amounts in later years. Since
9

10
unemployment is likely to be high for some
time, it is appropriate for the stimulus to extend into 2010 and 2011. At the same time,
monetary policy and financial stabilization
efforts have helped revive credit markets
while laying the groundwork for a sustained
recovery.
Employment continued to decline in the
second quarter of 2009, but at a slower rate
than in the first quarter—an average monthly decline in payroll jobs of 436,000 compared
to the prior quarter’s 691,000. Other indicators suggest that policy is already having
an effect on aggregate demand. Retail sales,
which fell for six straight months at the end
of 2008, have stabilized over the past few
months. One of the main factors contributing
to the strengthening of consumer demand is
the tax relief in ARRA, which contributed to
a rise in real disposable income in May to the
highest level in a year. Housing affordability
over the last six months (through June) was
higher than at any time since data have been
maintained (1971), and housing starts were
slightly higher in the second quarter than
the first quarter, following several quarters
of steep decline. This is partly the result
of monetary policy, which has kept interest
rates low, and also the measures taken to assure that potential home owners will have access to credit, which together have helped to
keep mortgage interest rates down. Overall,
some forecasters estimated that ARRA added at least two percentage points to the annual growth rate in the second quarter.
With the improvement in financial conditions, some of the flight to quality that pulled
down Treasury rates at the end of 2008
has been reversed and yields on long-term
Treasury notes have risen in 2009. This
healthy development signals an increased
willingness on the part of investors to hold a
wider range of assets, which is necessary for
lending to revive in the private sector and for
credit markets to return to normal.
Once the recovery takes hold, it is expected to
gain momentum as time passes. The economic
recovery will mitigate the downward pressure
on home prices that has made mortgage debt
so risky. With asset values more predictable,
credit market restrictions on new lending will
likely relax. A revival of normal credit channels will further strengthen the recovery.

MID-SESSION REVIEW

ECONOMIC PROJECTIONS
The Administration expects the recovery to
proceed most rapidly from 2011 to 2014 and
eventually lower the unemployment rate to below 6 percent. These new economic projections
are based on information available through
early June 2009. They are summarized in
Table 2, which also shows the forecast of GDP
and incomes after adjusting for the comprehensive revision to the national income and
product accounts released July 31. For 2009
to 2010, the projected rate of real GDP growth
and the projected unemployment rate are close
to the Blue Chip Consensus forecast (an average of about 50 private-sector forecasts). A
comparison with the latest available Blue Chip
and CBO forecasts is shown below in Table 3.
Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and the
Unemployment Rate: Real GDP is expected
to decline by 2.8 percent this year, and to increase by 2.0 percent in 2010. The growth
rate is projected to accelerate in 2011 to 3.8
percent and to exceed 4 percent per year in
2012-2014. Beyond 2014, real GDP growth
is projected to converge to a long-run annual
growth rate of potential GDP of 2.5 percent.
The unemployment rate is projected to peak
at a rate above 10.0 percent on a monthly basis before beginning to decline in the middle
of 2010. With a return to stronger growth in
2011, the unemployment rate is projected to
fall more rapidly in that year.
Inflation: Over the 12 months ending in
June 2008, the headline consumer price index—CPI-U—rose 4.8 percent, led by sharply
higher energy prices. Since 2008:Q3, inflation
has declined sharply because of a fall in energy
prices and a much reduced rate of increase in
food prices. Core consumer price inflation (that
is, excluding food and energy prices) has also
declined, but much less dramatically than the
top-line measure. Core inflation was 2.4 percent between June 2007 and June 2008; over
the subsequent 12 months it has averaged only
1.7 percent. Because it is not directly affected by
swings in energy and food prices, the core index
is a better guide to underlying inflation trends
than the overall CPI-U, which is projected to decline 0.7 percent in 2009. The overall CPI-U is
projected to revert toward the underlying rate
so that it rises in 2010 and eventually converges
on a long-run inflation rate of 2.1 percent.

11

ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

Table 2.  ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS 1
(Calendar years; dollar amounts in billions)
Actual
2007

Projections

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
Levels, dollar amounts in billions:
Current dollars ������������������� 13,808 14,265 14,122 14,588 15,337 16,259 17,249 18,267 19,258 20,225 21,178 22,130 23,101
Constant (2000) dollars ������ 11,524 11,652 11,324 11,549 11,991 12,507 13,045 13,581 14,073 14,525 14,939 15,333 15,722
Price index (2000 = 100) ����� 119.8 122.5 124.7 126.3 127.9 130.0 132.2 134.5 136.8 139.2 141.8 144.3 146.9
Percent change, Q4/Q4:
Current dollars �������������������
4.9
1.2
0.2
4.1
5.8
6.1
6.1
5.8
5.2
4.9
4.6
4.5
4.3
Constant (2000) dollars ������
2.3
–0.8
–1.5
2.9
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.0
3.4
3.1
2.7
2.6
2.5
Price index (2000 = 100) �����
2.6
2.0
1.6
1.2
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
Percent change, year over year:
Current dollars �������������������
4.8
3.3
–1.0
3.3
5.1
6.0
6.1
5.9
5.4
5.0
4.7
4.5
4.4
Constant (2000) dollars ������
2.0
1.1
–2.8
2.0
3.8
4.3
4.3
4.1
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.6
2.5
Price index (2000 = 100) �����
2.7
2.2
1.8
1.3
1.3
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
Incomes, billions of current dollars:
Corporate profits before tax ��� 1,886
7,812
6,362
3,096

1,597
8,053
6,548
3,174

1,504
8,037
6,491
2,940

1,730
8,342
6,668
3,172

1,940
8,791
7,036
3,258

2,001
9,320
7,488
3,563

2,095 2,143 2,193 2,192 2,285 2,362 2,470
9,882 10,470 11,045 11,608 12,150 12,705 13,255
7,949 8,437 8,908 9,366 9,808 10,255 10,695
3,768 4,029 4,256 4,498 4,725 4,958 5,196

Consumer Price Index (all urban): 3 
Level (1982-84 = 100) ��������� 207.3
Percent change, Q4/Q4 �������
4.0
Percent change, year/year ���
2.9

215.2
1.5
3.8

213.8
0.5
–0.7

216.9
1.4
1.4

220.2
1.7
1.5

224.4
2.0
1.9

228.9
2.0
2.0

233.5
2.0
2.0

238.1
2.0
2.0

243.1
2.1
2.1

248.2
2.1
2.1

253.4
2.1
2.1

258.8
2.1
2.1

6.9
5.8

10.0
9.3

9.7
9.8

8.0
8.6

7.5
7.7

6.5
6.8

5.7
5.9

5.5
5.6

5.4
5.5

5.3
5.3

5.3
5.3

5.2
5.2

3.5
3.5

3.4
2.9

2.9
2.0

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

NA
NA

Employee Compensation ����
Wages and salaries �������������
Other taxable income 2 ��������

Unemployment rate, civilian, percent:
Fourth quarter level �����������
4.8
Annual average �������������������

4.6

Federal pay raises, January, percent:
Military 4 ������������������������������
Civilian 5 �������������������������������

2.7
2.2

Interest rates, percent:
91-day Treasury bills 6 ���������

4.4

1.4

0.2

1.3

2.6

3.8

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

4.0

10-year Treasury notes �������

4.6

3.7

3.6

4.5

4.9

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

5.2

NA = Not Available; Q4/Q4 = fourth quarter over fourth quarter.
1 
Based on information available as of early June 2009.
2 
Rent, interest, dividend, and proprietors’ income components of personal income.
3 
Seasonally adjusted CPI for all urban consumers.
4 
Percentages apply to basic pay only; percentages to be proposed for years after 2010 have not yet been determined.
5 
Overall average increase, including locality pay adjustments. Percentages to be proposed for years after 2010 have not yet been determined.
6 
Average rate, secondary market (bank discount basis).

12

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Table 2a.  ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS ADJUSTED FOR NIPA REVISIONS 1
(Calendar years; dollar amounts in billions)
Actual
2007

2008

Projections
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Gross Domestic Product (GDP):
Levels, dollar amounts in billions:
Current dollars ������������������� 14,078 14,441 14,210 14,680 15,433 16,361 17,357 18,381 19,378 20,352 21,311 22,268 23,245
Constant (2005) dollars ������ 13,254 13,312 12,892 13,148 13,651 14,238 14,850 15,461 16,021 16,535 17,006 17,455 17,898
Price index (2005 = 100) ������ 106.2 108.5 110.2 111.6 113.0 114.8 116.8 118.8 120.9 123.0 125.2 127.5 129.8
Percent change, Q4/Q4:
Current dollars �������������������
5.3
0.1
–0.2
4.1
5.8
6.1
6.1
5.8
5.2
4.9
4.6
4.5
4.3
Constant (2005) dollars ������
2.5
–1.9
–1.7
2.9
4.3
4.3
4.3
4.0
3.4
3.1
2.7
2.6
2.5
Price index (2005 = 100) �����
2.7
1.9
1.4
1.2
1.4
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
Percent change, year over year:
Current dollars �������������������
5.1
2.6
–1.6
3.3
5.1
6.0
6.1
5.9
5.4
5.0
4.7
4.5
4.4
Constant (2005) dollars ������
2.1
0.4
–3.2
2.0
3.8
4.3
4.3
4.1
3.6
3.2
2.8
2.6
2.5
Price index (2005 = 100) �����
2.9
2.1
1.5
1.3
1.3
1.6
1.7
1.7
1.7
1.8
1.8
1.8
1.8
Incomes, billions of current dollars:
Corporate profits before tax ��� 1,774
Employee Compensation ������
Wages and salaries �������������

7,856
6,409

1,463
8,037
6,546

1,378
8,021
6,489

1,585
8,326
6,666

1,777
8,774
7,034

1,832
9,303
7,485

1,919 1,963 2,008 2,008 2,093 2,163 2,262
9,863 10,450 11,024 11,586 12,127 12,680 13,229
7,947 8,434 8,905 9,363 9,805 10,252 10,691

Other taxable income 2 ��������

3,273

3,311

3,130

3,382

3,474

3,804

4,027

4,309

4,551

4,810

5,053

5,301

5,556

After the forecast was completed, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released a comprehensive benchmark revision to the National
Income and Product Accounts. Such revisions to the historical data generally occur every five years and include conceptual and classification changes as well as simple data updates based on more detailed information. Table 2a shows how the economic assumptions
would change using the revised levels for GDP and its components.
2 
Rent, interest, dividend, and proprietors’ income components of personal income.
1 

The other main measure of inflation is the
chain-type GDP price index. It is projected
to rise by 1.6 percent between 2008:Q4 and
2009:Q4, and, following a two-year decline
in 2010-2011, to increase in 2012, and eventually to return to a rate of 1.8 percent per
year.
Interest Rates: The projections for interest rates are based on financial market data
and market expectations at the time that the
forecast was developed. The three-month
Treasury bill rate is expected to average only
0.2 percent in 2009 and then to rise steadily,
reaching 4.0 percent by 2013. The yield on
the 10-year Treasury note is projected to average 3.6 percent in 2009 and then to rise to 5.2
percent by 2012. Projected real interest rates
are assumed to be close to their historical
averages in the long run.
Incomes and Income Shares: Labor compensation—consisting of wages and salaries and
employee fringe benefits such as employer-

provided insurance and pensions—is currently
56.9 percent of GDP. It is projected to return
gradually over the next six years to its historical average of around 57.4 percent of GDP. The
share of corporate profits, which has been temporarily reduced by the recession, is projected
to rise during the early stages of recovery but
then eventually to decline. The wage share in
GDP is also projected to rise from its recent
low level, but by less than the increase in total
compensation because employee benefits are
expected to increase further, holding down the
expected rise in wages and salaries. A major
health care reform could lead to a reduction in
the growth rate of employer-paid health insurance premiums and allow a greater increase in
wages and salaries.
FORECAST COMPARISONS
Table 3 compares the MSR economic assumptions with those for the 2010 Budget
and with recent projections by CBO and the
Blue Chip Consensus.

13

ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS

All of these forecasts predict that the economy
will begin to recover from the 2008-2009 recession before the end of 2009. The Administration
forecasts that real GDP will decline 1.5 percent in
2009 (fourth quarter over fourth quarter). This is
the same as CBO’s projection but is a larger reduction than the –1.1 percent in the July Blue Chip
Consensus forecast. For 2010, the Administration
forecasts real GDP growth of 2.9 percent (fourth

quarter over fourth quarter), which is below the
CBO forecast of 4.1 percent and similar to the
Blue Chip forecast of 2.7 percent. For unemployment, the Administration forecasts an average
annual rate of 9.3 percent in 2009 and 9.8 percent
in 2010. This is nearly identical to the Blue Chip
forecast and notably higher than CBO’s March
forecast.

Table 3.  COMPARISON OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS
(Calendar years; dollar amounts in billions)
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

14,265
14,281
14,257
14,263

14,122
14,291
14,047
14,080

1.1
1.3
1.1
1.1

–2.8
–1.2
–3.0
–2.6

2.0
3.2
2.9
2.0

3.8
4.0
4.0
NA

4.3
4.6
4.1
NA

4.3
4.2
4.0
NA

4.1
2.9
3.5
NA

3.6
2.6
2.7
NA

3.2
2.6
2.5
NA

2.8
2.6
2.4
NA

2.6
2.6
2.3
NA

2.5
2.6
2.2
NA

–0.8
–0.2
–0.9
–0.8

–1.5
0.3
–1.5
–1.1

2.9
3.5
4.1
2.7

4.3
4.4
4.1
NA

4.3
4.6
4.1
NA

4.3
3.8
3.9
NA

4.0
2.6
3.2
NA

3.4
2.6
2.6
NA

3.1
2.6
2.4
NA

2.7
2.6
2.3
NA

2.6
2.6
2.2
NA

2.5
2.6
2.2
NA

2.2
2.2
2.2
2.2

1.8
1.2
1.5
1.7

1.3
1.1
0.8
1.4

1.3
1.5
0.5
NA

1.6
1.7
0.6
NA

1.7
1.8
0.6
NA

1.7
1.8
0.9
NA

1.7
1.8
1.4
NA

1.8
1.8
1.5
NA

1.8
1.8
1.6
NA

1.8
1.8
1.6
NA

1.8
1.8
1.6
NA

3.8
3.8
3.8
3.8

–0.7
–0.6
–0.7
–0.6

1.4
1.6
1.4
1.8

1.5
1.8
1.2
NA

1.9
2.0
1.0
NA

2.0
2.1
1.0
NA

2.0
2.1
1.2
NA

2.0
2.1
1.6
NA

2.1
2.1
1.9
NA

2.1
2.1
1.9
NA

2.1
2.1
1.9
NA

2.1
2.1
1.9
NA

5.8
5.8

9.3
8.1

9.8
7.9

8.6
7.1

7.7
6.0

6.8
5.2

5.9
5.0

5.6
5.0

5.5
5.0

5.3
5.0

5.3
5.0

5.2
5.0

5.8
5.8

8.8
9.3

9.0
9.9

7.7
NA

6.6
NA

5.6
NA

5.1
NA

4.9
NA

4.8
NA

4.8
NA

4.8
NA

4.8
NA

Nominal GDP:
MSR ������������������������������������������������������
Budget ��������������������������������������������������
CBO 1 �����������������������������������������������������
Blue Chip ����������������������������������������������

14,588 15,337 16,259 17,249 18,267 19,258 20,225 21,178 22,130 23,101
14,902 15,728 16,731 17,739 18,588 19,415 20,279 21,181 22,124 23,108
14,576 15,233 15,950 16,684 17,421 18,138 18,873 19,624 20,381 21,164
14,524
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA
NA

Real GDP (year/year):
MSR ������������������������������������������������������
Budget ��������������������������������������������������
CBO 1 �����������������������������������������������������
Blue Chip ����������������������������������������������
Real GDP (Q4/Q4):
MSR ������������������������������������������������������
Budget ��������������������������������������������������
CBO 1 �����������������������������������������������������
Blue Chip ����������������������������������������������
GDP Price Index: 2 
MSR ������������������������������������������������������
Budget ��������������������������������������������������
CBO 1 �����������������������������������������������������
Blue Chip ����������������������������������������������
Consumer Price Index (CPI-U): 2 
MSR ������������������������������������������������������
Budget ��������������������������������������������������
CBO 1 �����������������������������������������������������
Blue Chip ����������������������������������������������
Unemployment Rate: 3 
MSR ������������������������������������������������������
Budget ��������������������������������������������������
CBO1 �����������������������������������������������������
Blue Chip ����������������������������������������������

14

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Table 3.  COMPARISON OF ECONOMIC ASSUMPTIONS—Continued
(Calendar years; dollar amounts in billions)
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Interest Rates: 3 
91-Day Treasury Bills:
MSR �������������������������������������������
Budget ����������������������������������������
CBO 1 ������������������������������������������
Blue Chip �����������������������������������

1.4
1.4
1.4
1.4

0.2
0.2
0.3
0.2

1.3
1.6
0.9
0.8

2.6
3.4
1.8
NA

3.8
3.9
3.0
NA

4.0
4.0
3.9
NA

4.0
4.0
4.4
NA

4.0
4.0
4.7
NA

4.0
4.0
4.7
NA

4.0
4.0
4.8
NA

4.0
4.0
4.8
NA

4.0
4.0
4.8
NA

3.7
3.7
3.7

3.6
2.8
2.9

4.5
4.0
3.4

4.9
4.8
4.0

5.2
5.1
4.6

5.2
5.2
5.0

5.2
5.2
5.3

5.2
5.2
5.4

5.2
5.2
5.5

5.2
5.2
5.6

5.2
5.2
5.6

5.2
5.2
5.6

3.7

3.4

4.1

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

NA

10-Year Treasury Notes:
MSR �������������������������������������������
Budget ����������������������������������������
CBO 1 ������������������������������������������
Blue Chip �����������������������������������

MSR = Mid-Session Review; CBO = Congressional Budget Office (March 2009); Blue Chip = July Blue Chip Consensus forecast.
Note: GDP estimates are not adjusted for July 31, 2009 comprehensive National Income and Product Account revisions.
Sources: Administration; CBO, A Preliminary Analysis of the President’s Budget and an Update of CBO’s Budget and Economic
Outlook, March 2009; July 2009 Blue Chip Economic Indicators, Aspen Publishers, Inc.
1
 CBO economic projections include the effects of the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009, but not the 2010 Budget proposals.
2
 Year-over-year percent change.
3
 Annual averages, percent; 91-day Treasury bills on discount basis.

RECEIPTS
The Mid-Session Review estimates of receipts are less than the May estimates by
$83 billion in 2009, $68 billion in 2010, and
between $31 billion and $144 billion in each
subsequent year, for a reduction of $791 billion over the 10-year budget horizon, 2010
through 2019. The effects of revised economic
assumptions on collections under current law
account for $26 billion of the reduction in 2009,
$63 billion of the reduction in 2010, and $691
billion or 87 percent of the reduction over the
10-year budget horizon. Technical revisions
attributable to new tax data and collections
experience account for $57 billion of the reduction in 2009, $7 billion of the reduction in
2010, and $107 billion of the reduction over 10
years. The reductions in estimates of receipts
under current law are partially offset by revisions in the estimates of the Administration’s
proposals, which increase receipts by a net $8
billion over 10 years.
Revisions in the economic forecast have
the greatest effect on individual and corporation income taxes. Reductions in wages and
salaries and other sources of taxable personal
income reduce individual income taxes under
current law by $21 billion in 2009, $46 billion
in 2010, and a net $363 billion over 10 years.
Reductions in gross domestic product (GDP)
and other economic measures that affect the
profitability of corporations reduce corporation income taxes by $1 billion in 2009, $2 billion in 2010, and $9 billion to $25 billion in
each subsequent year, for a net reduction of
$178 billion over 10 years. The revised economic forecast, specifically reductions in the
forecast of imports, also has a significant impact on customs duties, reducing collections
by $1 billion in 2009, $4 billion in 2010, and
$131 billion over 10 years. Social insurance
and retirement receipts, which include Social
Security and Medicare payroll taxes, unemployment insurance receipts, and railroad
retirement and other retirement receipts, decline by $5 billion to $20 billion in each year,
2009 through 2014, and increase by $3 billion
to $13 billion in each subsequent year, for a net
reduction of $27 billion over 10 years. Reductions in wages and salaries and in proprietor’s
income, the tax base for Social Security and
Medicare payroll taxes, reduce these receipts

in each year. Beginning in 2015, these reductions in payroll taxes are more than offset by
increases in unemployment receipts, attributable to increases in State unemployment insurance tax rates and to reductions in credits
against the Federal unemployment insurance
tax, both reflecting the need to fund increased
benefits as unemployment rises. The net increase in other sources of receipts of $2 billion in 2009, $3 billion in 2010, and $7 billion
over 10 years, reflects increases in deposits of
earnings of the Federal Reserve System, attributable to higher interest rates, that more
than offset reductions in excise taxes and
estate and gift taxes.
Technical reestimates of receipts under current law have the largest effect on corporation
income taxes, reducing collections by $25 billion in 2009, $13 billion in 2010, and smaller
amounts in each subsequent year, for a net reduction of $71 billion over the 10 years, 2010
through 2019. These revisions in corporation
income taxes reflect new tax and collections
data that were not available at the time the
May estimates were prepared. Technical reestimates reduce individual income taxes by
$28 billion in 2009, increase receipts by $19
billion in 2010, and reduce receipts by a net
$20 billion over 10 years. Reductions in the
estimate of 2009 tax liability and revisions in
the timing of collections, based on more recent
collections data, are in large part responsible
for the reduction in individual income taxes
of $28 billion in 2009 and the partially offsetting increase of $19 billion in 2010. Revisions
in the individual income tax model, based primarily on updated tax data for prior years,
are in large part responsible for the technical revisions in individual income taxes in
each subsequent year. Technical revisions,
attributable mostly to more recent taxable
wage data from employer returns, reduce social insurance and retirement receipts by $3
billion in 2009, $16 billion in 2010, and $59
billion over 10 years. The downward technical revisions in income and payroll taxes are
partially offset by net increases in estate and
gift taxes and other sources of receipts. The
increases in estate and gift taxes reflect increases in the estimated value of estates,
attributable in large part to stock market
15

16

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Table 4.  CHANGE IN RECEIPTS
(In billions of dollars)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010– 2010–
2014
2019
May estimate ��������������������������������������������������� 2,157 2,333 2,685 3,075 3,305 3,480 3,662 3,841 4,021 4,218 4,429 14,879 35,049
Changes in current law receipts:
Due to revised economic assumptions:
Individual income taxes ������������������� –21 –46 –65 –72 –72 –55 –33 –15
–5
1
–1
–310
–363
Corporation income taxes ����������������
–1
–2
–9 –17 –25 –25 –21 –19 –18 –20 –21
–79
–178
Social insurance and retirement �����
–5 –14 –16 –17 –20
–9
3
8
13
13
13
–77
–27
Customs duties ���������������������������������
–1
–4
–7 –11 –13 –15 –16 –17 –17 –16 –15
–50
–131
Other �������������������������������������������������
2
3
*
*
1
*
*
*
1
1
1
4
7
Total revised economic
assumptions ��������������������������������

–26
Due to technical reestimates:
Individual income taxes ������������������� –28
Corporation income taxes ���������������� –25
Social insurance and retirement �����
–3
Estate and gift taxes ������������������������ .........
Other �������������������������������������������������
–*
Total technical reestimates ������������

–57
Changes in estimates of proposals:
Provisions continued in current policy
baseline ���������������������������������������������
–*
Reform U.S. international tax system � .........
Upper-income tax provisions ���������������
*
Other provisions �����������������������������������
–*
Total changes in estimates of
proposals ���������������������������������������
–*
Total changes in receipts ��������� –83

–63

–97 –117 –131 –104

–67

–43

–25

–22

–23

–511

–691

19
–13
–16
1
1

–4
–4
–6
–1
4

–7
–5
–6
3
2

–7
–5
–6
4
1

–7
–4
–6
4
*

–6
–6
–7
4
*

–5
–7
–*
5
–*

–3
–8
–2
5
–1

–1
–9
–2
5
–1

1
–9
–8
6
–1

–6
–31
–39
12
8

–20
–71
–59
38
5

–7

–10

–12

–14

–12

–15

–8

–9

–8

–12

–56

–107

1
–*
1
–*

16
–4
1
*

11
–6
–7
1

12
–6
–7
1

11
–6
–6
2

10
–6
–4
2

8
–7
–3
2

7
–7
–3
2

7
–8
–3
2

7
–8
–3
*

51
–22
–18
4

90
–59
–36
12

13
–1
*
1
–94 –130 –144 –116

1
–81

–*
–51

–2
–36

–2
–31

–4
–39

15
–553

8
–791

2
–68

Mid-Session estimate �������������������������������������� 2,074 2,264 2,591 2,945 3,161 3,365 3,582 3,791 3,985 4,186 4,389 14,326 34,259
* $500 million or less.

gains since the May estimates were prepared,
which are treated as a technical rather than
an economic change.
Revisions in the estimates of the Administration’s proposals have a minimal effect on
receipts in 2009, increase receipts by $2 billion in 2010, and increase receipts by a net
$8 billion over the 10-year budget horizon.
This increase includes a $90 billion reduction
in the estimated cost of permanently extending alternative minimum tax relief, the 2001
and 2003 tax cuts, and estate and gift taxes at
parameters in effect for calendar year 2009.
The lower cost of extending these temporary
tax provisions, which are reflected in the Administration’s baseline projection of current
policy, is due in large part to reductions in the
economic forecast for wages and salaries and
other sources of taxable income. The reduction in the estimated cost of these provisions

is largely offset by an $82 billion reduction in
the estimated receipt gain from the Administration’s other proposals. This $82 billion reduction is the net effect of reductions in the
estimated receipt gain from the proposed reforms of the U.S. international tax system and
the proposed increases in taxes on higher-income individuals, and reductions in the cost
of the proposed tax reductions for individuals
and businesses. Revisions in the estimated
receipt gain from the proposed reforms of the
U.S. international tax system, attributable primarily to technical revisions in the behavioral
response of taxpayers to these changes based
on more recent information, reduce receipts
by $59 billion over 10 years. Reductions in
wages and salaries and other sources of taxable income, particularly dividends, are in
large part responsible for the $36 billion reduction in the estimated receipt gain from the
proposed increases in taxes on upper-income

RECEIPTS

taxpayers over 10 years. Reductions in the
cost of the proposed tax cuts for individuals
and businesses and other initiatives, attributable in large part to reductions in incomes,
increase receipts by $12 billion over 10 years.
In addition to changes in receipts, the MidSession Review also reflects changes in outlays related to refundable tax credits. These
tax credits are classified as outlays to the extent that refunds are in excess of a taxpayer’s
tax liability. Seven refundable tax credits,
including the Making Work Pay Tax Credit,
Child Tax Credit, and Earned Income Tax

17
Credit, combine to have $8 billion in higher
outlays in 2009 than the Budget estimated.
Over the 10-year budget window, estimating
changes increase outlays for refundable tax
credits by $34 billion. These changes include
revisions in estimates under current law and
revisions in estimates of the Administration’s
proposals for these credits. The main drivers of the increase are the economic changes
resulting from a weakened economy and job
market. These decrease wages and increase
the number of people who qualify under the
income thresholds for these programs.

EXPENDITURES
Outlays for fiscal year 2009 are now estimated to be $3,653 billion, a $345 billion
decrease from the May Budget estimate,
due largely to removal of the May Budget’s
placeholder for further financial stabilization
efforts and to lower projected outlays for deposit insurance. Relative to the May Budget,
total outlays have increased by $175 billion in
2010 and $1,152 billion over 10 years. These
changes are largely the effect of technical
and economic revisions in estimates of major programs since the May Budget release.
However, $700 billion of the $1,152 billion
increase in outlays is produced by higher interest payments, which themselves result in
part from lower receipts.
POLICY CHANGES
Changes that have resulted from the enactment of legislation and changes in policy since
the release of the Budget decrease outlays by
$228 billion in 2009 and increase outlays by $39
billion in 2010. Over the 10-year period 2010
through 2019, policy changes increase outlays
by $225 billion. The major pieces of legislation
that Congress has enacted since the transmittal of the Budget are the 2009 Supplemental
Appropriations Act and the Helping Families
Save Their Homes Act of 2009. The primary
policy change since the Budget is the removal
of the placeholder for further financial stabilization efforts.
2009 Supplemental Appropriations
Act. The Supplemental Appropriations Act
pro­ ides discretionary appropriations for
v
overseas contingency operations, largely as
proposed in the Budget, along with funding
for the International Monetary Fund (IMF),
additional emergency funding related to
the H1N1 influenza virus, and other items.
Relative to the original Budget proposal, the
supplemental increases spending by $5 billion in 2009, $8 billion in 2010, and $12 billion over 2010 through 2019. Administration
estimates of the Act largely mirror those of
the Congressional Budget Office (CBO), except that the Administration scores the subsidy costs of the IMF provisions to be $444
million in budget authority, whereas CBO
scores them at $5 billion.

Helping Families Save Their Homes
Act of 2009. The Helping Families Save Their
Homes Act expands the Federal Housing
Administration’s foreclosure relief authorities,
extends higher limits on deposit insurance,
and increases the borrowing authority for the
Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation and
National Credit Union Administration, allowing those agencies to avoid near-term increases
in deposit insurance premiums in the current
financial environment. On net, the Act decreases outlays relative to the Budget by $8 billion in
2009 and $9 billion in 2010. Over 2010 through
2019, it increases outlays by $5 billion.
Placeholder for further financial stabilization efforts. The Mid-Session Review no
longer reflects a placeholder for further financial stabilization efforts. As a result of the completion of the Supervisory Capital Assessment
Program and the Administration’s other efforts
under the Financial Stability Plan, the substantial amounts of private capital that financial institutions have raised, and the repayments to
the Government of $70 billion in investments
by the Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)
since the Budget was issued, it is now significantly less likely that additional funding authority for financial stabilization will be needed. Removing the placeholder has the direct
effect of reducing 2009 outlays by $250 billion
relative to the Budget. The indirect effects of
removing the placeholder on the non-budgetary
credit financing accounts reduce interest received from these financing accounts, resulting
in an offsetting $25 billion increase in net interest outlays in 2009 and a total 10-year increase
of $230 billion.
ESTIMATING CHANGES
Estimating changes are due to factors other
than enacted legislation or changes in policy,
including changes in economic assumptions,
discussed earlier in this Review, and changes
in technical factors. Economic and technical
changes reduce estimated outlays for 2009 by
$117 billion relative to the Budget estimate,
and increase estimated outlays for 2010 by
$136 billion. Over the period 2010 through
2019, outlays are $928 billion above the Budget
for economic and technical reasons.
19

20

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Discretionary appropriations. Outlays
for discretionary appropriations decrease by
$33 billion in 2009 and increase by $11 billion in 2010 relative to the Budget as a re­ ult
s
of technical revisions. These changes largely
re­ ect slower spending in 2009 and higher
fl
estimated spending in 2010 of regular and
emergency appropriations in the Department
of Defense. The Departments of Health and
Human Services, State, Homeland Security,
and Housing and Urban Development comprise most of the remaining decrease in 2009
and increase in 2010 discretionary spending.
The Department of Energy also contributes to

the decrease in 2009, while the Department of
Education contributes to the increase in 2010.
Social Security. Estimating changes reduce outlays for Social Security by $37 bil­ ion
l
over the next 10 years. The decrease largely results from lower projections for Cost of Living
Adjustments (COLAs) but is offset by recent
program experience, anticipated increases in
the number of beneficiaries, and updated de­
mographic assumptions in the 2009 Trustees’
Report resulting in higher average benefit
amounts.

Table 5.  CHANGE IN OUTLAYS
(in billions of dollars)
2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2010- 20102014 2019
May estimate ����������������������������������������������������� 3,998 3,591 3,615 3,633 3,817 4,016 4,190 4,487 4,696 4,905 5,207 18,672 42,157
Changes due to policy:
2009 Supplemental Appropriations Act ���

5
8
2
1
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
11
12
Financial stabilization reserve:
Direct outlays ������������������������������������� –250 ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
Credit interest effects ������������������������
25
42
34
27
23
22
20
18
17
14
12
148
230
Other legislation and policy changes �����
–8
–9
–4
–1
3
8
15
*
*
*
*
–3
12
Debt service ���������������������������������������������
–*
–2
–4
–5
–5
–4
–3
–2
–2
–1
–*
–21
–29
Subtotal, policy ���������������������������������������������� –228
39
28
22
21
26
32
16
15
14
12
135
225
Changes due to reestimates:
Discretionary appropriations:
Defense (050) ��������������������������������������� –25
5
9
1
*
*
*
*
*
*
*
15
18
Non-defense �����������������������������������������
–8
6
2
2
–2
–*
–*
–*
–*
–1
–*
8
6
Social Security ����������������������������������������
2
6
7
4
1
–2
–6
–9 –11 –12 –13
15
–37
Unemployment compensation ����������������
17
54
31
20
20
15
10
8
6
5
3
139
172
Supplemental Nutrition Assistance
Program ����������������������������������������������
1
2
2
2
2
2
–*
–3
–4
–5
–5
9
–8
Pell Grants ���������������������������������������������� .........
1
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
3
12
27
Medicaid ��������������������������������������������������
–4
–5
–2
*
3
5
7
9
11
12
12
1
52
Title 48 energy grants ����������������������������
*
3
4
5
3
* ......... ......... ......... ......... .........
15
15
Troubled Asset Relief Program �������������� –24
62
1
–1
–2
–*
–*
*
* ......... .........
60
60
Deposit insurance ����������������������������������� –78 –19
10
23
21
19
17
1
*
*
*
53
73
Refundable tax credits ���������������������������
8
7
2
5
5
5
3
2
2
2
2
24
34
Other programs �������������������������������������� –11
–5
–1
5
6
6
5
2
4
–2
–1
11
19
Net interest1 ��������������������������������������������
5
21
3
17
38
50
59
68
74
80
87
129
497
Subtotal, reestimates ������������������������������������ –117 136
72
86
97 101
98
83
84
82
88
493
928

Total change in outlays ������������������������������������� –345

175

100

108

118

127

131

99

99

96

100

628 1,152

Mid-Session estimate ���������������������������������������� 3,653 3,766 3,715 3,741 3,936 4,143 4,321 4,586 4,795 5,001 5,307 19,300 43,309
* $500 million or less.
1
Includes debt service on all reestimates.

EXPENDITURES

Unemployment compensation. Changes
in economic and technical assumptions increase outlays for unemployment benefits by
$17 billion in 2009 and $172 billion over the
next 10 years. This increase largely results
from higher unemployment rates than were
assumed in the Budget and also includes the
effect of higher claims levels and the extension of benefits in 17 States that have enacted
the Total Unemployment Rate trigger.
SNAP. Outlays for the Supplemental
Nutrition Assistance Program (SNAP), formerly called Food Stamps, are estimated
to decrease by $8 billion over the next 10
years due to economic and tech­ ical factors.
n
Technical changes increase participation assumptions by about 2 million individuals in
2010 and 2011. This increased participation
drives up SNAP program costs in the short
term. Projected inflation in food prices is now
significantly lower than expected in the May
Budget, and this would normally create an offsetting decrease in SNAP outlays. However,
the American Recovery and Reinvestment Act
(ARRA) provided a special increase in benefit levels above the normal inflation-indexed
benefit increase. In the out-years, after inflation increases the normal benefit level above
the level provided in ARRA, the slower-thanexpected inflation reduces SNAP outlays
relative to the Budget.
Medicaid. Projected 2009 Federal outlays
for Med­ caid have decreased by $4 billion
i
since the Budget, but over 2010 to 2019, total outlays are now expected to be $52 billion
higher than in the Budget due to estimating
changes. The overall increase over the 10year period is attributable largely to technical
changes, including updated utilization projections. In addition, updated economic assumptions of faster growth in wages and hospital
prices in later years contribute to the increase
in the estimate of Medicaid outlays. Over the
10-year period, technical changes to Recovery
Act Medicaid are attributable to updated estimates of State administrative costs under
Sec. 4201.
Deposit insurance. Federal Deposit
Insurance Corporation (FDIC) outlays are $78
billion lower in 2009 than in the May Budget.
However, over the following 10 years, net outlays are expected to increase by $73 billion,
for a net outlay decrease over 11 years of $5

21
billion. The near-term decreases are mostly
due to improved conditions in the banking
industry since the May Budget, resulting in
fewer expected resolutions of failed banks.
In addition, the FDIC has increased its use
of loss-sharing agreements instead of deposit
payoffs when resolving insolvent institutions.
Loss-sharing agreements lower upfront payments by the FDIC, as partnering institutions
take over the insolvent banks while the FDIC
covers a share of losses of the partnering institution over time. As a result of these lower
upfront payments due to fewer bank liquidations and to loss-sharing agreements, the
FDIC is now expected to require lower premium levels in later years to maintain balances
in the Deposit Insurance Fund. The lower
premium collections increase net FDIC outlays from 2011 through 2015 relative to the
May Budget.
Pell
Grants.
Outlays
under
the
Administration’s proposal for Pell Grants are
now estimated to increase by $27 billion over
2010 to 2019. This increase is driven almost
entirely by technical revisions to reflect historic increases in the demand for Pell Grants
as more individuals choose to go to college in
a weakened labor market.
Troubled Asset Relief Program. Relative
to the May Budget, outlays from TARP are
now expected to decrease by $24 billion in
2009, but rise by $62 billion in 2010 due to
technical revisions. The changes are primarily
a result of incorporating actual subsidy rates
for TARP activity to date as well as new estimates of expected TARP obligations for this
fiscal year and next. The estimates reflect
the reallocation of $77 billion in TARP repayments within the program’s overall $700 billion limit on holdings of troubled assets, up
from $25 billion in reallocations estimated in
the May Budget.
Title 48 energy grants. Outlays for Title
48 grants in lieu of energy tax credits, enacted
in ARRA, increase relative to the May Budget
by $15 billion over the next 10 years due to
technical revisions to reflect higher-thanexpected demand for this Recovery program.
Nearly all of these changes in estimates occur
from 2010 to 2013.
Net interest. Excluding the debt service
associated with policy changes and the credit

22
interest effects of removing the financial stabilization reserve, outlays for net interest are
projected to increase by $497 billion over 10
years. Higher debt service costs related to
estimating changes in receipts and outlays

MID-SESSION REVIEW

contribute to a large share of the increase in
projected net interest. Interest outlays also
increase due to higher interest rates than in
the May Budget economic forecast.

SUMMARY TABLES

(In billions of dollars and as a percent of GDP)
Totals
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

20102014

20102019

Budget Totals in Billions of Dollars:
Receipts �����������������������������������������������������������
Outlays ������������������������������������������������������������
Deficit ��������������������������������������������������������

2,524
2,983
459

2,074
3,653
1,580

2,264
3,766
1,502

Debt held by the public �����������������������������������
Debt net of financial assets �������������������������������

5,803
5,297

7,856
6,770

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–1.  BUDGET TOTALS

9,575 10,590 11,443 12,281 13,126 13,927 14,782 15,651 16,523 17,493
8,230 9,330 10,125 10,899 11,677 12,415 13,210 14,019 14,834 15,751

2,591
3,715
1,123

2,945
3,741
796

3,161
3,936
775

3,365
4,143
778

3,582
4,321
739

3,791
4,586
795

3,985
4,795
810

4,186
5,001
815

4,389 14,326 34,259
5,307 19,300 43,309
917 4,974 9,051

Gross domestic product (GDP) ������������������������������� 14,222 14,116 14,442 15,123 16,021 16,997 18,011 19,016 19,983 20,944 21,890 22,857
Budget Totals as a Percent of GDP:
Receipts �����������������������������������������������������������
Outlays ������������������������������������������������������������
Deficit ��������������������������������������������������������

17.7%
21.0%
3.2%

14.7%
25.9%
11.2%

15.7%
26.1%
10.4%

17.1%
24.6%
7.4%

18.4%
23.3%
5.0%

18.6%
23.2%
4.6%

18.7%
23.0%
4.3%

18.8%
22.7%
3.9%

19.0%
22.9%
4.0%

19.0%
22.9%
3.9%

19.1%
22.8%
3.7%

19.2%
23.2%
4.0%

Debt held by the public �����������������������������������
Debt net of financial assets �������������������������������

40.8%
37.2%

55.7%
48.0%

66.3%
57.0%

70.0%
61.7%

71.4%
63.2%

72.3%
64.1%

72.9%
64.8%

73.2%
65.3%

74.0%
66.1%

74.7%
66.9%

75.5%
67.8%

17.7%
24.0%
6.3%

18.4%
23.5%
5.1%

76.5%
68.9%

25

26

Table S–2.  EFFECT OF BUDGET PROPOSALS ON PROJECTED DEFICITS
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in billions of dollars)
Totals

Percent of GDP ������������������������������������������������������������
Reserve funds:
Health reform:
Health savings 2  ����������������������������������������������������
�
Limit the rate at which itemized deductions
reduce tax liability to 28 percent 2 ��������������������
Reduce the tax gap and make other reforms 2 ������
Net total ����������������������������������������������������������������
Climate revenues:
Dedicated to climate policy (clean energy
technologies) �����������������������������������������������������
Dedicated to Making Work Pay ����������������������������
Tax cuts for families and businesses 3, 4 ��������������������������
Other revenue changes and loophole closers �����������������
Proposed changes in mandatory programs and user fees5 ����
Proposed changes in appropriated (“discretionary”)
programs:
Cost of overseas contingency operations ��������������������
Defense (050) excluding overseas contingency
operations ����������������������������������������������������������������
Non-defense discretionary ������������������������������������������
Subtotal, appropriated programs �������������������������
Subtotal, policy proposals �������������������������������������

Credit and other indirect interest effects ����������������������
Debt service ���������������������������������������������������������������������
Total reduction in projected deficits ������������������
Resulting deficits in 2010 Mid-Session Review ����
Percent of GDP ������������������������������������������������������������

2010

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

1,552
11.0%

1,449
10.0%

1,173
7.8%

939
5.9%

938
5.5%

955
5.3%

925
4.9%

988
4.9%

1,013
4.8%

1,031
4.7%

1,145
5.0%

5,454
6.9%

10,555
5.9%

.........

–3

–11

–27

–38

–73

–65

–81

–93

–107

–123

–153

–622

.........
.........
.........

.........
–3
.........

–9
–4
.........

–24
–5
.........

–27
–6
.........

–30
–6
.........

–32
–6
.........

–35
–6
.........

–37
–6
.........

–40
–7
.........

–42
–7
.........

–89
–24
.........

–275
–58
.........

.........
.........
28
.........
*

.........
.........
45
–3
–3

.........
.........
40
–17
1

–15
–62
78
–27
–5

–15
–63
83
–32
–8

–15
–63
88
–34
–6

–15
–63
92
–35
–4

–15
–63
96
–36
–1

–15
–64
99
–36
2

–15
–64
102
–37
5

–15
–65
105
–38
8

–45
–187
333
–113
–20

–120
–507
827
–295
–10

.........

–12

–60

–92

–101

–106

–109

–112

–115

–118

–121

–370

–944

.........
.........
.........
28

10
17
15
54

8
7
–44
–20

4
19
–68
–100

–1
29
–72
–106

–3
37
–72
–102

–4
43
–70
–96

–5
47
–70
–89

–6
49
–72
–85

–7
51
–74
–83

–8
53
–76
–80

18
110
–242
–275

–12
352
–604
–709

.........
*
*
28

–2
–*
1
53

–29
–2
1
–50

–39
–2
–2
–143

–49
–*
–8
–163

–59
1
–16
–177

–68
3
–25
–186

–74
4
–34
–193

–80
7
–44
–203

–87
9
–55
–216

–93
13
–67
–227

–178
–3
–24
–480

–580
33
–248
–1,505

1,580
11.2%

1,502
10.4%

1,123
7.4%

796
5.0%

775
4.6%

778
4.3%

739
3.9%

795
4.0%

810
3.9%

815
3.7%

917
4.0%

4,974
6.3%

9,051
5.1%

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Upper-income tax provisions dedicated to deficit
reduction �������������������������������������������������������������������

2012

2010–
2019

2009
Projected deficits in the baseline projection of
current policy1 ����������������������������������������������������������

2011

2010–
2014

(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in billions of dollars)
Totals
2009

2010

2011

2012

Memorandum, proposed changes in appropriated (“discretionary”) budgetary resources:
Overseas contingency operations ������������������������������� .........
–18
–101
–103
Defense (050) excluding overseas contingency
operations ���������������������������������������������������������������� .........
11
7
2
Non-defense discretionary ������������������������������������������ .........
22
24
41
Total, appropriated funding ���������������������������������
.........
15
–70
–59

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2010–
2014

2010–
2019

–106

–109

–112

–114

–117

–120

–123

–437

–1,024

–1
44
–64

–3
48
–64

–3
47
–68

–4
49
–70

–5
49
–73

–6
49
–77

–7
52
–79

17
178
–241

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–2.  EFFECT OF BUDGET PROPOSALS ON PROJECTED DEFICITS—Continued

–8
424
–608

* $500 million or less.
1
See Tables S-3 and S-7 for information on the baseline projection of current policy.
2
Non-additive.
3
Includes refundable tax credits.
4
Includes the effects of proposed financing system modifications for the Federal Aviation Administration and of continuing certain expiring provisions through calendar year 2010.
5
 Includes PAYGO impact of changes in mandatory programs included in appropriations language.

27

28

Table S–3.  BASELINE PROJECTION OF CURRENT POLICY BY CATEGORY 1
(In billions of dollars)
Totals
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

20102014

20102019

Outlays:
Appropriated (“discretionary”) programs:
Defense (050) including cost of overseas
contingency operations ���������������������������������������
Non-defense discretionary ����������������������������

612
508
1,120

662
584
1,246

717
681
1,397

715
639
1,353

718
607
1,325

732
595
1,326

747
597
1,344

766
608
1,374

784
622
1,407

803
637
1,440

823
652
1,474

843
667
1,509

3,628
3,118
6,746

7,647
6,304
13,950

612
386
201
.........
411
1,610
253
.........
2,983

677
425
258
235
636
2,232
173
2
3,653

702
452
285
70
644
2,152
196
8
3,754

729
497
273
11
590
2,100
288
15
3,756

755
507
284
9
499
2,054
392
18
3,788

792
565
307
6
500
2,170
477
20
3,993

837
631
332
6
489
2,295
542
22
4,204

886
650
360
3
489
2,387
603
24
4,389

939
720
389
1
517
2,566
660
26
4,659

997
751
418
*
526
2,693
716
27
4,876

1,060
780
450
.........
526
2,817
770
29
5,090

1,128
3,814
871
2,652
483
1,481
.........
102
553
2,722
3,035 10,771
829
1,895
30
83
5,403 19,495

8,825
6,425
3,580
106
5,333
24,269
5,473
220
43,913

1,146
304

904
149

1,026
206

1,155
275

1,306
325

1,418
355

1,537
359

1,657
392

1,771
412

1,885
431

2,001
451

2,114
474

6,443
1,520

15,870
3,680

Deficit ������������������������������������������������������������������

658
194
40
9
67
29
28
34
17
2,524
459

653
190
40
9
65
26
23
27
16
2,102
1,552

661
189
50
9
69
19
21
39
16
2,305
1,449

699
202
62
8
79
23
22
41
16
2,583
1,173

734
214
72
8
83
24
23
43
17
2,850
939

775
227
76
9
85
26
24
43
17
3,055
938

823
241
78
9
86
27
25
46
17
3,249
955

866
254
79
9
87
29
27
48
18
3,464
925

919
270
77
9
88
31
29
49
18
3,671
988

958
282
76
9
89
33
31
51
18
3,863
1,013

1,003
294
72
9
88
36
34
53
18
4,059
1,031

1,045
307
73
9
89
38
36
55
18
4,258
1,145

3,691
1,074
339
43
403
119
114
211
83
14,041
5,454

8,482
2,481
715
87
844
286
272
468
172
33,357
10,555

On-budget deficit ��������������������������������������������������
Off-budget surplus (–) ������������������������������������������

642
–183

1,684
–133

1,559
–110

1,302
–128

1,085
–147

1,101
–163

1,135
–180

1,112
–188

1,189
–201

1,210
–197

1,225
–194

1,329
–184

6,182
–728

12,247
–1,692

Subtotal, appropriated programs �������������
Mandatory programs:
Social Security �����������������������������������������������
Medicare ���������������������������������������������������������
Medicaid ���������������������������������������������������������
Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)2 �������
Other mandatory programs ��������������������������
Subtotal, mandatory programs ��������������������
Net interest ����������������������������������������������������������
Disaster costs3 �������������������������������������������������������
Total outlays ��������������������������������������������������
Receipts:
Individual income taxes ���������������������������������������
Corporation income taxes ������������������������������������
Social insurance and retirement receipts:
Social Security payroll taxes �������������������������
Medicare payroll taxes ����������������������������������
Unemployment insurance �����������������������������
Other retirement �������������������������������������������

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Excise taxes ����������������������������������������������������������
Estate and gift taxes ��������������������������������������������
Customs duties �����������������������������������������������������
Deposits of earnings, Federal Reserve System ���
Other miscellaneous receipts ������������������������������
Total receipts �������������������������������������������������

(In billions of dollars)
Totals
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

20102014

20102019

Memorandum, funding (“budgetary resources”) for appropriated programs:
Defense (050) including funding for
overseas contingency operations ���������������
Non-defense discretionary ����������������������������
Total, appropriated funding ����������������������

686

695

694

708

725

742

760

778

797

816

836

856

3,629

7,710

533
1,219

818
1,513

551
1,246

562
1,271

575
1,300

589
1,331

602
1,362

616
1,394

631
1,427

646
1,462

661
1,497

677
1,533

2,880
6,509

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–3.  BASELINE PROJECTION OF CURRENT POLICY BY CATEGORY 1—Continued

6,112
13,822

* $500 million or less.
1
See Table S-7 for information on adjustments to the Budget Enforcement Act (BEA) baseline.
2
Outlays for TARP in 2011 and subsequent years result from obligations for the Home Affordable Modification Program and the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan
Facility incurred through December 31, 2009.
3
These amounts represent the statistical probability of a major disaster requiring Federal assistance for relief and reconstruction. Such assistance might be provided
in the form of discretionary or mandatory outlays or tax relief. These amounts are included as outlays for convenience.

29

30

Table S–4.  PROPOSED BUDGET BY CATEGORY
(In billions of dollars)
Totals
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2010–
2014

2010–
2019

Outlays:
Appropriated (“discretionary”) programs:
Defense (050) including cost of
overseas contingency operations ���
Non-defense discretionary ����������������

612
508
1,120

662
584
1,246

714
698
1,412

663
646
1,309

630
626
1,256

630
624
1,254

639
634
1,273

653
651
1,304

667
669
1,336

682
686
1,368

698
702
1,400

714
720
1,434

3,276 6,690
3,228 6,656
6,504 13,346

612
386
201

677
425
258

702
452
284

728
496
273

754
506
284

791
564
306

835
630
332

884
650
359

937
720
389

996
750
418

1,059
780
450

1,127
871
482

3,811
2,648
1,479

.........
411
1,610
253
.........
2,983

235
636
2,232
173
2
3,653

70
642
2,150
196
8
3,766

11
595
2,103
288
15
3,715

9
525
2,078
388
18
3,741

6
526
2,193
468
20
3,936

6
518
2,321
527
22
4,143

3
516
2,411
581
24
4,321

1
546
2,592
631
26
4,586

*
557
2,721
678
27
4,795

.........
559
2,847
725
29
5,001

.........
588
3,069
774
30
5,307

102
106
2,805 5,570
10,845 24,486
1,868 5,257
83
220
19,300 43,309

Individual income taxes �������������������������� 1,146
Corporation income taxes �����������������������
304
Social insurance and retirement receipts:
Social Security payroll taxes �������������������
658
Medicare payroll taxes ����������������������
194
Unemployment insurance �����������������
40
Other retirement �������������������������������
9
Excise taxes ���������������������������������������������
67
Estate and gift taxes �������������������������������
29
Customs duties ����������������������������������������
28
Deposits of earnings, Federal Reserve
System �������������������������������������������������
34
Climate revenues ������������������������������������ .........
Other miscellaneous receipts �����������������
17

904
121

1,028
164

1,157
290

1,307
351

1,428
381

1,558
385

1,680
416

1,798
435

1,916
454

2,037
474

2,154
498

6,478 16,063
1,571 3,847

653
190
40
9
65
26
23

661
189
51
9
68
19
20

700
202
63
8
71
23
21

734
215
72
8
74
24
23

775
228
76
9
76
26
24

824
241
78
9
77
27
25

867
255
79
9
77
29
27

920
270
76
9
77
31
29

959
282
76
9
78
33
31

1,004
295
72
9
77
36
34

1,046
307
71
9
78
38
36

3,695
1,075
340
43
366
119
114

8,490
2,483
714
87
753
286
271

27
.........
16

39
.........
16

41
.........
16

43
77
17

43
78
17

46
78
17

48
78
17

49
78
18

51
79
18

53
79
18

55
80
18

211
232
83

468
627
171

Subtotal, appropriated programs ���
Mandatory programs:
Social Security �����������������������������������
Medicare ���������������������������������������������
Medicaid ���������������������������������������������
Troubled Asset Relief Program
(TARP)1 �������������������������������������������
Other mandatory programs ��������������
Subtotal, mandatory programs ����
Net interest ���������������������������������������������
Disaster costs2 ������������������������������������������
Total outlays ��������������������������������������

8,815
6,418
3,577

Receipts:

MID-SESSION REVIEW

(In billions of dollars)
Totals
2008
Total receipts �������������������������������������

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2010–
2014

2010–
2019

Deficit �����������������������������������������������������

2,524
459

2,074
1,580

2,264
1,502

2,591
1,123

2,945
796

3,161
775

3,365
778

3,582
739

3,791
795

3,985
810

4,186
815

4,389
917

14,326 34,259
4,974 9,051

On-budget deficit �������������������������������������
Off-budget surplus (-) ������������������������������

642
–183

1,712
–133

1,612
–110

1,252
–128

942
–147

938
–163

959
–181

928
–189

997
–202

1,008
–198

1,010
–195

1,102
–185

5,703 10,748
–729 –1,697

Primary deficit ����������������������������������������
Net interest ���������������������������������������������

206
253

1,406
173

1,305
196

836
288

407
388

307
468

251
527

158
581

164
631

131
678

90
725

143
774

3,106
1,868

3,793
5,257

Memorandum, funding (“budgetary resources”) for appropriated programs:
Defense (050) including funding for
overseas contingency operations ���
686
695
687
615
Non-defense discretionary����������������
533
818
573
586
Total, appropriated funding������������������ 1,219 1,513
1,261
1,201

624
617
1,241

635
632
1,267

648
650
1,298

663
663
1,326

678
680
1,358

693
695
1,388

709
711
1,420

725
729
1,454

3,209
3,058
6,268

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–4.  PROPOSED BUDGET BY CATEGORY—Continued

6,678
6,535
13,214

* $500 million or less.
Outlays for TARP in 2011 and subsequent years result from obligations for the Home Affordable Modification Program and the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan
Facility incurred through December 31, 2009.
2
These amounts represent the statistical probability of a major disaster requiring Federal assistance for relief and reconstruction. Such assistance might be provided in the form of discretionary or mandatory outlays or tax relief. These amounts are included as outlays for convenience.
1

31

Policy Outlays by Category

Policy Receipts by Source

2010
Defense including Overseas
Contingency Operations

2010
Allowance for
Disaster Costs
Net Interest

Non-Defense
Discretionary

Other
Miscellaneous
Excise Taxes
Receipts
Unemployment
Insurance

Other
Mandatory
Programs

Social Security

32

Composition of Policy Outlays and Receipts

Borrowing and
Other Net
Financing

Medicare
Payroll
Taxes

Social Security
Payroll Taxes

Medicaid
Medicare

Individual
Income Taxes

Corporation
Income Taxes

2013
Defense including Overseas
Contingency Operations

2013
Allowance for
Disaster Costs

Excise Taxes

Other Miscellaneous
Receipts

Unemployment
Insurance

Social Security

Medicaid

Other
Mandatory
Programs

Medicare Payroll
Taxes
Social Security
Payroll Taxes

Medicare

Corporation
Income Taxes

Individual
Income Taxes

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Net
Interest

Non-Defense
Discretionary

Borrowing and
Other Net
Financing

(As a percent of GDP)
Averages
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2010–
2014

2010–
2019

Outlays:
Appropriated (“discretionary”) programs:
Defense (050) including cost of overseas
contingency operations �����������������������������������
Non-defense discretionary ������������������������������
Subtotal, appropriated programs ���������������������
Mandatory programs:
Social Security �������������������������������������������������
Medicare �����������������������������������������������������������
Medicaid �����������������������������������������������������������
Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) 1 ��������
Other mandatory programs ����������������������������
Subtotal, mandatory programs �������������������
Net interest ������������������������������������������������������������
Disaster costs 2 ��������������������������������������������������������
Total outlays ����������������������������������������������������

4.3
3.6
7.9

4.7
4.1
8.8

4.9
4.8
9.8

4.4
4.3
8.7

3.9
3.9
7.8

3.7
3.7
7.4

3.5
3.5
7.1

3.4
3.4
6.9

3.3
3.3
6.7

3.3
3.3
6.5

3.2
3.2
6.4

3.1
3.1
6.3

4.1
4.0
8.1

3.7
3.7
7.3

4.3
2.7
1.4
.........
2.9
11.3
1.8
.........
21.0

4.8
3.0
1.8
1.7
4.5
15.8
1.2
*
25.9

4.9
3.1
2.0
0.5
4.4
14.9
1.4
0.1
26.1

4.8
3.3
1.8
0.1
3.9
13.9
1.9
0.1
24.6

4.7
3.2
1.8
0.1
3.3
13.0
2.4
0.1
23.3

4.7
3.3
1.8
*
3.1
12.9
2.8
0.1
23.2

4.6
3.5
1.8
*
2.9
12.9
2.9
0.1
23.0

4.6
3.4
1.9
*
2.7
12.7
3.1
0.1
22.7

4.7
3.6
1.9
*
2.7
13.0
3.2
0.1
22.9

4.8
3.6
2.0
*
2.7
13.0
3.2
0.1
22.9

4.8
3.6
2.1
.........
2.6
13.0
3.3
0.1
22.8

4.9
3.8
2.1
.........
2.6
13.4
3.4
0.1
23.2

4.7
3.3
1.8
0.1
3.5
13.5
2.3
0.1
24.0

4.8
3.4
1.9
0.1
3.1
13.3
2.8
0.1
23.5

8.1
2.1

6.4
0.9

7.1
1.1

7.6
1.9

8.2
2.2

8.4
2.2

8.7
2.1

8.8
2.2

9.0
2.2

9.1
2.2

9.3
2.2

9.4
2.2

8.0
1.9

8.6
2.0

4.6
1.4
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
.........
0.1
17.7
3.2

4.6
1.3
0.3
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.2
0.2
.........
0.1
14.7
11.2

4.6
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.3
.........
0.1
15.7
10.4

4.6
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.3
.........
0.1
17.1
7.4

4.6
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.1
18.4
5.0

4.6
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.5
0.1
18.6
4.6

4.6
1.3
0.4
*
0.4
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.1
18.7
4.3

4.6
1.3
0.4
*
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.4
0.1
18.8
3.9

4.6
1.4
0.4
*
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.2
0.4
0.1
19.0
4.0

4.6
1.3
0.4
*
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.1
19.0
3.9

4.6
1.3
0.3
*
0.4
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.4
0.1
19.1
3.7

4.6
1.3
0.3
*
0.3
0.2
0.2
0.2
0.3
0.1
19.2
4.0

4.6
1.3
0.4
0.1
0.5
0.1
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.1
17.7
6.3

4.6
1.3
0.4
*
0.4
0.2
0.1
0.3
0.3
0.1
18.4
5.1

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–5.  PROPOSED BUDGET BY CATEGORY AS A PERCENT OF GDP

Receipts:
Individual income taxes �����������������������������������������
Corporation income taxes ��������������������������������������
Social insurance and retirement receipts:
Social Security payroll taxes ���������������������������
Medicare payroll taxes ������������������������������������
Unemployment insurance �������������������������������
Other retirement ���������������������������������������������

Deficit ��������������������������������������������������������������������

33

Excise taxes ������������������������������������������������������������
Estate and gift taxes ����������������������������������������������
Customs duties �������������������������������������������������������
Deposits of earnings, Federal Reserve System �����
Climate revenues ���������������������������������������������������
Other miscellaneous receipts ��������������������������������
Total receipts ���������������������������������������������������

34

Table S–5.  PROPOSED BUDGET BY CATEGORY AS A PERCENT OF GDP—Continued
(As a percent of GDP)
Averages
2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2010–
2014

2010–
2019

On-budget deficit ����������������������������������������������������
Off-budget surplus (–) ��������������������������������������������

4.5
–1.3

12.1
–0.9

11.2
–0.8

8.3
–0.8

5.9
–0.9

5.5
–1.0

5.3
–1.0

4.9
–1.0

5.0
–1.0

4.8
–0.9

4.6
–0.9

4.8
–0.8

7.2
–0.9

6.0
–0.9

Primary deficit �������������������������������������������������������
Net interest ������������������������������������������������������������

1.4
1.8

10.0
1.2

9.0
1.4

5.5
1.9

2.5
2.4

1.8
2.8

1.4
2.9

0.8
3.1

0.8
3.2

0.6
3.2

0.4
3.3

0.6
3.4

4.1
2.3

2.4
2.8

Memorandum, funding (“budgetary resources”) for appropriated programs:
Defense (050) including funding for overseas
contingency operations �����������������������������������
4.8
4.9
4.8
Non-defense discretionary ������������������������������
3.8
5.8
4.0
Total, appropriated funding ������������������������
8.6
10.7
8.7

4.1
3.9
7.9

3.9
3.8
7.7

3.7
3.7
7.5

3.6
3.6
7.2

3.5
3.5
7.0

3.4
3.4
6.8

3.3
3.3
6.6

3.2
3.2
6.5

3.2
3.2
6.4

4.0
3.8
7.8

3.7
3.6
7.2

* 0.05 percent of GDP or less.
1
Outlays for TARP in 2011 and subsequent years result from obligations for the Home Affordable Modification Program and the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan
Facility incurred through December 31, 2009.
2
These amounts represent the statistical probability of a major disaster requiring Federal assistance for relief and reconstruction. Such assistance might be provided
in the form of discretionary or mandatory outlays or tax relief. These amounts are included as outlays for convenience.

MID-SESSION REVIEW

(In billions of dollars, based on 2010 prices and population)
2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Outlays:
Appropriated (“discretionary”) programs:
Defense (050) including cost of overseas contingency
operations ����������������������������������������������������������������������������
Non-defense discretionary �����������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, appropriated programs ��������������������������������������
Mandatory programs:
Social Security ������������������������������������������������������������������������
Medicare ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Medicaid ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) 1 �������������������������������
Other mandatory programs ���������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, mandatory programs ������������������������������������������
Net interest �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Disaster costs 2 �������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Total outlays ���������������������������������������������������������������������������

714
698
1,412

647
630
1,277

598
594
1,193

581
575
1,156

572
567
1,139

567
566
1,133

563
564
1,127

558
561
1,119

554
557
1,111

550
554
1,104

702
452
284
70
642
2,150
196
8
3,766

711
484
266
11
580
2,052
281
14
3,625

716
480
269
9
498
1,973
369
17
3,551

729
520
282
5
485
2,021
432
19
3,627

748
564
297
5
464
2,077
472
20
3,708

768
564
312
2
448
2,095
505
21
3,754

790
607
328
1
460
2,186
532
22
3,867

815
614
342
*
456
2,226
555
22
3,923

841
619
357
.........
443
2,260
575
23
3,969

868
671
371
.........
453
2,363
596
23
4,086

1,028
164

1,129
283

1,241
333

1,316
351

1,395
344

1,460
362

1,516
367

1,567
371

1,617
376

1,659
383

661
189
51
9
68
19
20
39
.........
16
2,264
1,502

683
198
61
8
69
22
21
40
.........
16
2,529
1,096

697
204
68
8
70
23
22
41
73
16
2,796
755

715
210
70
8
70
24
22
40
71
16
2,913
714

737
216
70
8
69
24
23
41
70
15
3,011
697

754
221
68
7
67
25
23
41
68
15
3,112
642

775
228
64
7
65
26
25
42
66
15
3,196
670

785
231
62
7
64
27
26
42
64
14
3,260
663

797
234
57
7
61
28
27
42
63
14
3,323
647

805
236
55
7
60
29
28
42
61
14
3,380
706

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–6.  PROPOSED BUDGET BY CATEGORY ADJUSTED
FOR INFLATION AND POPULATION GROWTH

Receipts:
Individual income taxes ����������������������������������������������������������������
Corporation income taxes �������������������������������������������������������������
Social insurance and retirement receipts:
Social Security payroll taxes ��������������������������������������������������
Medicare payroll taxes �����������������������������������������������������������
Unemployment insurance ������������������������������������������������������
Other retirement ��������������������������������������������������������������������
Excise taxes �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Estate and gift taxes ���������������������������������������������������������������������
Customs duties ������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Deposits of earnings, Federal Reserve System ����������������������������
Climate revenues ��������������������������������������������������������������������������
Other miscellaneous receipts �������������������������������������������������������
Total receipts ��������������������������������������������������������������������������

35

Deficit �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

36

Table S–6.  PROPOSED BUDGET BY CATEGORY ADJUSTED
FOR INFLATION AND POPULATION GROWTH—Continued
(In billions of dollars, based on 2010 prices and population)
2010
On-budget deficit ���������������������������������������������������������������������������
Off-budget surplus (–) �������������������������������������������������������������������

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

1,612
–110

1,221
–125

895
–139

865
–151

858
–162

806
–164

841
–170

824
–162

801
–155

849
–142

Memorandum, funding (“budgetary resources”) for appropriated programs:
Defense (050) including funding for overseas contingency
operations ����������������������������������������������������������������������������
687
Non-defense discretionary �����������������������������������������������������
573
Total, appropriated funding �����������������������������������������������
1,261

600
572
1,172

592
585
1,178

585
583
1,168

580
582
1,162

576
576
1,152

572
573
1,145

567
569
1,136

563
564
1,127

559
561
1,120

* $500 million or less.
1
Outlays for TARP in 2011 and subsequent years result from obligations for the Home Affordable Modification Program and the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan
Facility incurred through December 31, 2009.
2
These amounts represent the statistical probability of a major disaster requiring Federal assistance for relief and reconstruction. Such assistance might be provided
in the form of discretionary or mandatory outlays or tax relief. These amounts are included as outlays for convenience.

MID-SESSION REVIEW

(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in billions of dollars)
Totals
2008
BEA baseline deficit ���������������������������������������������

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

20102014

20102019

459

1,549

1,426

945

625

564

522

437

453

434

400

453

4,081

6,259

.........
.........

.........
*

13
4

65
137

32
232

37
262

44
293

51
317

60
334

70
351

80
368

92
385

192
928

546
2,682

.........

.........

12

22

28

37

39

41

39

33

29

33

137

311

.........
.........
.........

.........
.........
*

.........
–2
27

1
–3
223

2
–3
291

2
–3
334

2
–3
374

2
–3
408

2
–3
432

2
–3
452

2
–3
477

3
–4
509

6
–13
1,249

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–7.  BRIDGE FROM BUDGET ENFORCEMENT ACT
BASELINE TO BASELINE PROJECTION OF CURRENT POLICY

18
–30
3,527

Adjustments to reflect current policies:
Index to inflation the 2009 parameters of the
AMT ������������������������������������������������������������������
Continue the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts 1 ���������������������
Prevent reduction in Medicare physician
payments ���������������������������������������������������������
Continue Diabetes funding, Transitional
Medical Assistance and Qualified Individuals
programs �����������������������������������������������������������
Correct baseline growth rates for pay increases �����
Subtotal ������������������������������������������������������

Adjustments to reflect costs of emergencies and disasters:
Remove non-recurring emergency funding �������
Insert statistical probability of future major
disaster costs 2 ��������������������������������������������������
Subtotal ������������������������������������������������������

.........

.........

–14

–20

–21

–23

–23

–24

–24

–25

–25

–26

–101

–225

.........
.........

2
2

8
–6

15
–5

18
–3

20
–3

22
–1

24
1

26
2

27
3

29
3

30
4

83
–17

220
–5

.........

.........

1

7

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

11

41

95

–15
15
.........

–19
19
.........

–24
24
1

–21
21
7

–18
18
11

–18
18
11

–18
18
11

–19
19
11

–19
19
11

–19
19
11

–20
20
11

–20
20
11

–100
100
41

–197
197
95

Total program adjustments �������������������������������
Debt service on adjustments �����������������������������
Total adjustments ��������������������������������������

.........
.........
.........

2
*
2

23
*
23

224
4
228

298
15
313

343
32
375

384
49
433

419
68
488

445
90
535

466
114
579

491
139
630

524
167
691

1,273
100
1,373

3,617
679
4,296

Baseline projection of current policy deficit �����

459

1,552

1,449

1,173

939

938

955

925

988

1,013

1,031

1,145

Adjustments to Pell Grants: 3 
Reflect cost of funding existing maximum
grant award ������������������������������������������������������
Remove Pell Grants from appropriated
category ������������������������������������������������������������
Add Pell Grants to mandatory category �����������
Subtotal ������������������������������������������������������

37

* $500 million or less.
1 
In continuing the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, the estate tax is maintained at its 2009 parameters.
2  
These amounts represent the statistical probability of a major disaster requiring Federal assistance for relief and reconstruction.
3  
The amount of the reclassification equals the existing and projected amounts of Pell as increased on a one-time basis by the Recovery Act.

5,454 10,555

38

Table S–8.  CHANGE IN THE BASELINE PROJECTION OF CURRENT POLICY FROM MAY BUDGET
(In billions of dollars)
Totals
2009
May deficits in the baseline projection of
current policy ���������������������������������������������
Percent of GDP ������������������������������������������

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2010–
2014

2019

2010–
2019

1,617
11.4%

1,270
8.6%

1,043
6.7%

761
4.6%

743
4.2%

788
4.3%

797
4.1%

907
4.5%

949
4.5%

977
4.5%

1,086
4.7%

4,606

9,323

7
*

11
*

9
*

9
*

9
*

10
*

10
*

10
*

10
*

11
*

11
*

49
*

100
1

.........
*
7

7
*
18

1
1
10

–1
1
10

–2
2
10

–2
3
10

–3
3
11

–1
4
13

–*
4
14

–*
5
15

–*
5
16

2
7
58

–1
28
128

63
43
12
118

97
30
4
132

117
15
16
148

131
13
34
177

104
7
42
153

67
–1
46
112

43
–7
50
86

25
–10
51
67

22
–14
53
61

23
–14
55
64

511
109
108
728

691
63
365
1,119

57

7

–5

1

2

1

5

–*

2

1

4

5

17

–64
–8

–38
5

–38
3

–48
2

–51
–1

–53
–*

–55
–*

–57
–*

–59
*

–62
*

–64
*

–229
9

–525
9

–24
–78
12
–2
7
–2
–102

62
–19
15
6
8
–3
42

1
10
5
14
*
–1
–12

–1
22
4
41
–2
–*
19

–2
20
3
41
–4
–*
8

–*
19
2
38
–4
–*
3

–*
17
1
38
–1
–*
5

*
2
1
35
1
.........
–18

*
1
*
36
3
.........
–18

.........
*
–*
32
5
.........
–23

.........
*
–*
32
6
.........
–21

60
53
29
140
–1
–5
61

60
74
31
312
13
–5
–15

Revisions due to enacted legislation:
2009 supplemental appropriations:
Non-defense discretionary outlays ���
Mandatory outlays �������������������������
Other legislative changes:
Mandatory outlays �������������������������
Debt service on legislative changes ���
Subtotal, enacted legislation ��������������������

Revisions due to updated economic assumptions:
Receipts �����������������������������������������������
26
Mandatory outlays ������������������������������
5
Net interest �����������������������������������������
–1
Subtotal, economics �����������������������������������

30

Revisions due to updated technical assumptions:
Receipts �����������������������������������������������
Discretionary outlays:
Defense (050) including funding for
overseas contingency operations 1 ����
Other appropriated programs �������
Mandatory outlays:

Subtotal, technical revisions ��������������������

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Troubled Asset Relief Program
(TARP) ����������������������������������������
Deposit insurance ���������������������������
Unemployment compensation �������
Other 2 ���������������������������������������������
Net interest �����������������������������������������
Disaster costs ��������������������������������������

(In billions of dollars)
Totals
2009
Total changes since May ���������������������������
MSR deficits in the baseline projection
of current policy ������������������������������������
Percent of GDP ������������������������������������������
Memorandum:
May funding (“budgetary resources”) for
appropriated programs �������������������������
Change in funding:
Defense (050) including funding for
overseas contingency operations ���
Other appropriated programs �������

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2010–
2014

2010–
2019

–65

178

130

177

195

167

128

81

64

53

59

848

1,232

1,552
11.0%

1,449
10.0%

1,173
7.8%

939
5.9%

938
5.5%

955
5.3%

925
4.9%

988
4.9%

1,013
4.8%

1,031
4.7%

1,145
5.0%

5,454

10,555

1,537

1,283

1,310

1,341

1,374

1,407

1,441

1,475

1,511

1,548

1,587

6,715

14,277

–46
21

–47
10

–49
9

–51
9

–52
10

–54
10

–56
10

–58
10

–60
11

–63
11

–65
11

–253
47

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–8.  CHANGE IN THE BASELINE PROJECTION OF
CURRENT POLICY FROM MAY BUDGET—Continued

–556
101

Total change in funding �������������������

–24

–38

–40

–41

–43

–45

–46

–48

–50

–52

–53

–206

–455

MSR funding for appropriated programs �����

1,513

1,246

1,271

1,300

1,331

1,362

1,394

1,427

1,462

1,497

1,533

6,509

13,822

* $500 million or less.
1 
Includes effect of shifting the baseline for overseas contingency operations from 2008 enacted funding to 2009 enacted funding.
2 
Includes conceptual adjustments to Pell Grants, the child tax credit, and the earned income tax credit to be consistent with the Administration’s PAYGO legislation. 
The legislation defines the baseline for Pell Grants as the cost of funding the existing maximum award.  In addition, the legislation defines the current policy baseline to
include all provisions in the 2001 and 2003 tax cuts, as amended and in effect in 2010.  Since these two policies are in place for 2009-10 and represent expansions of tax
cuts first enacted in the 2001 tax bill, extension of the policies are incorporated in the baseline projection of current policy.

39

40

Table S–9.  CHANGE IN PROPOSED BUDGET FROM MAY BUDGET
(In billions of dollars)
Totals
2009
2010 May Policy deficit ���������������������������������������������������������������
Percent of GDP ����������������������������������������������������������������������������
Change in baseline projection of current policy �������������

2010

1,841 1,258
13.0% 8.7%

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

20102014

20102019

929
6.1%

557
3.5%

512
3.0%

536
3.0%

528
2.8%

645
3.2%

675
3.2%

688
3.1%

779
3.4%

3,793

7,108

–65

178

130

177

195

167

128

81

64

53

59

848

1,232

Dedicated to climate policy (clean energy technologies) �����

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

Dedicated to Making Work Pay �������������������������������������

.........

.........

.........

–*

–1

–1

–*

–*

–*

–*

–*

–2

–3

Placeholder for potential additional financial stabilization
efforts ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Tax cuts for families and businesses1 ����������������������������������
Other revenue changes and loophole closers ����������������������
Mandatory programs and user fees �������������������������������������
Appropriated (“discretionary”) programs:2

–250
*
*
–7

.........
*
*
–16

.........
–*
3
–8

.........
–8
5
–9

.........
–8
6
–3

.........
–9
6
4

.........
–10
6
9

.........
–10
6
–7

.........
–10
7
–8

.........
–11
8
–8

.........
–10
9
–7

.........
–24
20
–32

.........
–75
56
–53

Overseas contingency operations ������������������������������������
Defense (050) excluding overseas contingency
operations ���������������������������������������������������������������������
Other appropriated programs �����������������������������������������

40

45

47

48

50

52

54

56

58

60

62

242

532

–*
–3

1
–4

1
–7

1
–8

1
–10

1
–10

2
–10

2
–10

2
–11

2
–11

2
–12

5
–38

14
–92

Subtotal, appropriated programs ����������������������������������
Subtotal, change in estimates of policy proposals ����������

37
–*
–221

41
–1
25

42
–1
36

42
7
37

42
7
43

44
6
50

46
4
54

47
3
40

49
3
42

51
3
43

53
3
47

210
18
190

455
36
416

Credit and other indirect interest effects3 ���������������������������������
Debt service ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Total change in policy proposals �����������������������������������������

25
–*
–196

42
–1
65

31
–3
64

25
–2
61

24
1
68

22
4
76

21
8
83

18
11
69

16
15
72

13
19
74

10
23
80

144
–2
333

221
73
711

Total changes since May ��������������������������������������������������������

–262

243

194

238

263

242

211

150

135

127

139

1,181

1,943

1,580 1,502 1,123
11.2% 10.4% 7.4%

796
5.0%

775
4.6%

778
4.3%

739
3.9%

795
4.0%

810
3.9%

815
3.7%

917
4.0%

4,974

9,051

Change in estimates of proposals:
Reserve fund for climate revenues:

Upper-income tax provisions dedicated to deficit reduction �����

Percent of GDP ����������������������������������������������������������������������������

* $500 million or less.
1
 Includes refundable tax credits and the effects of proposed financing system modifications for the Federal Aviation Administration.
2
 Almost all of these changes reflect changes in the baseline (see Table S-8) rather than changes in proposed levels.
3
  his change consists almost entirely of effects related to dropping the placeholder for potential additional financial stabilization efforts.
T

MID-SESSION REVIEW

August Policy deficit �������������������������������������������������������������������

(In billions of dollars)
Totals
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2010–
2014

2010–
2019

Change in outlays:
Appropriated (“discretionary”) programs:
Defense (050) including cost of overseas
contingency operations ��������������������������������
Non-defense discretionary ������������������������������
Subtotal, appropriated programs ���������������
Mandatory programs:
Social Security �������������������������������������������������
Medicare �����������������������������������������������������������
Medicaid �����������������������������������������������������������
Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)1 ���������������������
Placeholder for potential additional financial
stabilization efforts ��������������������������������������
Unemployment compensation �������������������������
Deposit insurance ��������������������������������������������
Other mandatory programs ����������������������������
Subtotal, mandatory programs �������������������
Net interest ������������������������������������������������������������
Disaster costs2 ���������������������������������������������������������
Total outlays ����������������������������������������������������

–24
–5
–29

7
10
18

10
5
15

2
4
5

*
–1
–1

*
–*
*

*
–*
*

*
–*
*

*
–*
*

*
–1
–*

*
–*
*

19
18
37

21
16
37

2
.........
–4
–24

6
.........
–5
62

7
.........
–2
1

4
.........
*
–1

1
.........
3
–2

–2
.........
5
–*

–6
.........
7
–*

–9
.........
9
*

–11
.........
11
*

–12
.........
12
.........

–13
.........
12
.........

15
.........
1
60

–37
.........
52
60

–250
17
–101
17
–344
30
–2
–345

.........
54
–31
15
100
61
–3
175

.........
31
5
11
53
33
–1
100

.........
20
23
17
64
39
–*
108

.........
20
27
14
63
57
–*
118

.........
15
32
11
60
67
–*
127

.........
10
36
7
54
77
–*
131

.........
8
1
4
14
85
.........
99

.........
6
*
4
10
89
.........
99

.........
5
*
–2
2
94
.........
96

.........
3
*
–1
1
99
.........
100

.........
139
55
69
339
257
–5
628

.........
172
93
81
421
700
–5
1,152

–49
–26

–24
–15

–55
–16

–74
–27

–73
–36

–54
–35

–30
–34

–11
–33

–*
–33

8
–37

7
–39

–279
–129

–307
–305

–2
–1
–5
–*
–1
.........
–1
3

–22
–7
–1
–*
–7
–*
–3
11

–19
–8
5
–*
–3
1
–7
7

–23
–8
8
–*
–2
2
–11
5

–29
–8
10
–*
–2
2
–13
4

–20
–6
11
–*
–2
2
–15
4

–13
–4
13
–*
–3
2
–16
4

–7
–2
17
*
–4
2
–17
4

–5
–1
17
*
–4
3
–16
4

–2
–1
14
*
–5
3
–15
4

–4
–1
9
*
–6
3
–14
4

–113
–37
34
–*
–16
6
–50
31

–144
–45
104
–*
–37
19
–129
52

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–10.  CHANGE IN PROPOSED BUDGET BY CATEGORY FROM MAY BUDGET

Change in receipts:
Individual income taxes �����������������������������������������
Corporation income taxes ��������������������������������������
Social insurance and retirement receipts:
Social Security payroll taxes ���������������������������
Medicare payroll taxes ������������������������������������
Unemployment insurance �������������������������������
Other retirement ���������������������������������������������

41

Excise taxes ������������������������������������������������������������
Estate and gift taxes ����������������������������������������������
Customs duties �������������������������������������������������������
Deposits of earnings, Federal Reserve System �����

42

Table S–10.  CHANGE IN PROPOSED BUDGET BY CATEGORY FROM MAY BUDGET—Continued
(In billions of dollars)
Totals
2009
Climate revenues ���������������������������������������������������
Other miscellaneous receipts ��������������������������������
Total receipts ���������������������������������������������������

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2010–
2019

2010–
2014

Change in deficit �������������������������������������������������

.........
.........
–83
–262

.........
–*
–68
243

.........
–*
–94
194

*
–*
–130
238

1
–*
–144
263

1
–*
–116
242

*
–*
–81
211

*
–*
–51
150

*
–*
–36
135

*
–*
–31
127

*
–*
–39
139

2
–*
–553
1,181

3
–*
–791
1,943

On-budget deficit ����������������������������������������������������
Off-budget surplus (–) ��������������������������������������������

–265
4

219
24

171
23

213
26

234
29

225
18

204
8

150
–1

141
–5

137
–10

149
–10

1,061
120

1,841
102

Memorandum, funding (“budgetary resources”) for appropriated programs:
Defense (050) including funding for overseas
contingency operations ��������������������������������
4
.........
*
Non-defense discretionary ������������������������������
14
1
2
Total, appropriated funding ��������������������������������
18
1
2

*
1
2

*
*
1

1
–*
*

1
–*
1

1
–*
1

1
–*
1

1
–*
1

1
–*
1

1
5
6

5
4
9

* $500 million or less.
1
Outlays for TARP in 2011 and subsequent years result from obligations for the Home Affordable Modification Program and the Term Asset-Backed Securities Loan
Facility incurred through December 31, 2009.
2
These amounts represent the statistical probability of a major disaster requiring federal assistance for relief and reconstruction. Such assistance might be provided
in the form of discretionary or mandatory outlays or tax relief. These amounts are included as outlays for convenience.

MID-SESSION REVIEW

(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2010–
2014

2010–
2019

218,336
4,289

537,392
11,633

19,387
17,239

60,153
55,107

Tax Provisions:  1 
Tax Cuts for Families and Individuals: 2
Provide making work pay tax credit3 ������������
Expand earned income tax credit3 ����������������
Expand saver’s credit and automatic
enrollment in IRAs3, 4 ���������������������������������
Provide American opportunity tax credit3 ����
Total, tax cuts for families and
individuals ���������������������������������������������
Tax Cuts for Businesses:
Eliminate capital gains taxation on small
businesses ��������������������������������������������������
Make research and experimentation tax
credit permanent ���������������������������������������
Expand net operating loss carryback �����������
Total, tax cuts for businesses ��������������������

.........
.........

......... 30,850 62,158 62,502 62,826 63,093 63,461 63,818 64,130 64,554
.........
2
1,448
1,425
1,414
1,419
1,433
1,460
1,495
1,537

.........
.........

200
.........

.........

.........

736
647

5,219
4,880

6,515
5,528

6,717
6,184

7,037
6,660

7,497
7,238

8,030
7,800

8,709
7,900

9,493
8,270

200 32,235 73,705 75,970 77,141 78,209 79,629 81,108 82,234 83,854

.........

.........

.........

.........

134

344

700

1,187

1,562

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–11.  MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS

259,251 –664,285

1,908

134

5,835

......... 3,047
5,362
5,966
6,593
7,226
7,852
8,461
9,058
9,645 10,247
27,800 35,700 –10,700 –10,200 –7,900 –5,600 –3,900 –2,700 –1,800 –1,300
–900
27,800 38,747 –5,338 –4,234 –1,307
1,760
4,296
6,461
8,445
9,907 11,255

28,194
1,300
29,628

73,457
–9,300
69,992

.........

.........

7,225

7,599

7,980

8,260

8,559

8,869

9,190

9,527

9,873

31,064

77,082

Continue Certain Expiring Provisions
Through Calendar Year 2010 3 ������������������������

38

6,499

5,435

469

376

382

489

570

416

414

441

13,161

15,491

.........
.........
.........

......... –1,177 –1,576 –1,689 –1,788 –1,875 –1,954 –2,029 –2,112 –2,209
......... –1,895 –3,419 –3,747 –3,466 –2,961 –2,426 –1,949 –1,554 –1,232
–31
–100
–180
–277
–386
–500
–604
–691
–775
–866

–6,230
–12,527
–974

–16,409
–22,649
–4,410

.........

.........

......... –2,992 –6,748 –8,082 –8,431 –8,590 –8,545 –8,630 –9,036

–17,822

–61,054

.........

......... –1,950 –3,384 –3,657 –3,918 –4,160 –4,346 –4,631 –4,996 –5,417

–12,909

–36,459

.........

......... –3,295 –5,594 –5,822 –6,012 –6,150 –6,206 –6,363 –6,598 –6,869

–20,723

–52,909

Other Revenue Changes and Loophole Closers:
Reinstate Superfund taxes ����������������������������
Tax carried interest as ordinary income ������
Codify “economic substance doctrine” �����������
Repeal LIFO method of accounting for
inventories �������������������������������������������������
Reform U.S. international tax system:
Reform business entity classification
rules �������������������������������������������������������
Defer deduction of expenses, except R&E
expenses, related to deferred income ����

43

Modify Federal Aviation Administration
Financing (non-PAYGO) 5 ��������������������������������

44

Table S–11.  MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2009
Reform foreign tax credit: Determine the
foreign tax credit on a pooling basis �����
Reform foreign tax credit: Prevent
splitting of foreign income and foreign
taxes �������������������������������������������������������
Limit shifting of income through
intangible property transfers ���������������
Limit earnings stripping by expatriated
entities �������������������������������������������������������������
Prevent repatriation of earnings in
certain cross-border reorganizations ����
Repeal 80/20 company rules ���������������������
Prevent the use of equity swaps to avoid
dividend withholding taxes ������������������
Modify tax rules for dual capacity
taxpayers �����������������������������������������������
Combat under-reporting of income on
accounts and entities in offshore
jurisdictions �������������������������������������������
Subtotal, reform U.S. international tax
system ��������������������������������������������������
Require information reporting for rental
property expense payments ����������������������

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2010–
2019

.........

......... –1,531 –2,578 –2,624 –2,669 –2,745 –2,852 –2,982 –3,154 –3,357

–9,402

–24,492

.........

.........

–6,708

–18,383

.........

.........

–13

–35

–58

–83

–108

–135

–163

–192

–222

–189

–1,009

.........

.........

–70

–120

–126

–132

–139

–146

–153

–161

–169

–448

–1,216

.........
.........

.........
.........

–19
–97

–31
–132

–32
–138

–33
–142

–34
–145

–35
–146

–36
–150

–38
–156

–39
–162

–115
–509

–297
–1,268

.........

.........

–309

–235

–108

–87

–89

–90

–92

–97

–101

–739

–1,208

.........

.........

–275

–474

–503

–535

–563

–592

–623

–651

–681

–1,787

–4,897

......... –2,365 –1,461

61

90

–469

–793

–886

–931

–979 –1,027

–4,144

–8,760

–933 –1,732 –1,952 –2,091 –2,194 –2,276 –2,345 –2,404 –2,456

......... –2,365 –9,953 –14,254 –14,930 –16,171 –17,120 –17,710 –18,469 –19,426 –20,500

–57,673 –150,898

.........

–177

–264

–279

–291

–304

–316

–330

–344

–359

–374

–1,315

–3,038

.........
.........

.........
.........

–500
.........

–500
.........

–500
.........

–600
.........

–600
.........

–600
.........

–600
.........

–700
.........

–700
.........

–2,100
.........

–5,300
.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........
.........

......... –1,399 –1,789 –1,115
.........
–5
–9
–9

–835
–8

–749
–7

–562
–6

–279
–6

–153
–6

–113
–6

–5,138
–31

–6,994
–62

.........

.........

–2

–6

–6

–6

–6

–6

–6

–19

–49

.........

.........

–351

–835 –1,022 –1,053 –1,086 –1,124 –1,160 –1,189 –1,215

–3,261

–9,035

–5

–6

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Eliminate oil and gas company preferences:
Levy tax on certain offshore oil and gas
production ����������������������������������������������
Repeal enhanced oil recovery credit6 ��������
Repeal credit for oil and gas produced
from marginal wells6 �����������������������������
Repeal expensing of intangible drilling
costs �������������������������������������������������������
Repeal deduction for tertiary injectants ��
Repeal exception to passive loss
limitations for working interests in oil
and natural gas properties ���������������������
Repeal percentage depletion for oil and
natural gas wells �����������������������������������

2010

2010–
2014

(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2009
Repeal domestic manufacturing tax
deduction for oil and natural gas
companies ��������������������������������������������������������
Increase geological and geophysical
amortization period for independent
producers to seven years ������������������������

2010

.........

.........

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

–757 –1,310 –1,392 –1,464 –1,531 –1,600 –1,670 –1,745 –1,823
–35

–727

–1,235

.........

......... –3,059 –4,617 –4,306 –4,217 –4,177 –4,041 –3,807 –3,845 –3,898

–16,199

–35,967

Eliminate advanced earned income tax
credit3 ����������������������������������������������������������

.........

–125

–414

–788

–72

–251

–72

–198

–71

–143

–72

–86

–74

–46

–13,292

.........

–74

–262

–4,923

.........

–71

–169

2010–
2019

Subtotal, eliminate oil and gas company
preferences �������������������������������������������

Total, other revenue changes and loophole
closers ����������������������������������������������������

–45

2010–
2014

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–11.  MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued

–77

–80

......... –2,698 –16,519 –27,391 –32,060 –34,486 –35,451 –35,727 –35,908 –36,778 –38,195 –113,154 –295,213

Upper-Income Tax Provisions Dedicated to Deficit Reduction:
Expand the 28-percent rate and reinstate
the 36-percent and 39.6-percent rates
for those taxpayers with income over
$250,000 (married) and $200,000 (single):
PAYGO �����������������������������������������������������

.........

.........

Non-PAYGO ���������������������������������������������

.........
.........

–127 –14,508 –27,150 –30,296 –33,746 –37,240 –40,704 –44,237 –47,835 –51,488 –105,827 –327,331
–127 –13,848 –26,136 –29,160 –32,467 –35,818 –39,143 –42,532 –45,997 –49,514 –101,738 –314,742

.........

......... –6,632 –14,549 –16,709 –18,518 –20,397 –22,291 –24,120 –25,890 –27,600

Total ���������������������������������������������������
Reinstate the personal exemption phaseout
and limitation on itemized deductions
for those taxpayers with income over
$250,000 (married) and $200,000 (single)
(non-PAYGO) ����������������������������������������������
Impose 20-percent tax rate on capital gains
and dividends for those taxpayers with
income over $250,000 (married) and
$200,000 (single) (non-PAYGO) ����������������
Total, upper-income tax provisions
dedicated to deficit reduction ����������������
Trade Initiatives:
Promote trade ������������������������������������������������

660

......... –1,626 –8,717

1,014

1,136

1,279

1,422

1,561

1,705

1,838

1,974

1,545 –2,735 –8,114 –11,481 –12,658 –13,743 –14,847 –15,983

4,089

12,589

–56,408 –176,706

–19,647

–88,359

......... –1,753 –29,197 –39,140 –48,604 –59,099 –67,696 –74,092 –80,395 –86,734 –93,097 –177,793 –579,807

.........

.........

2

3

Total, tax provisions ���������������������������������������� 27,838 40,995 –6,157 11,011

4

5

9

12

17

21

24

2,359 –6,037 –11,585 –14,278 –17,127 –21,409 –25,845

14

97

42,171 –48,073

45

46

Table S–11.  MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2010–
2014

2010–
2019

Climate Revenues:
Dedicated to climate policy (clean energy
technologies) �����������������������������������������������������
Dedicated to making work pay tax credit �����������

.........
.........

.........
.........

......... –15,000 –15,000 –15,000 –15,000 –15,000 –15,000 –15,000 –15,000 –45,000 –120,000
......... –62,158 –62,502 –62,826 –63,093 –63,461 –63,818 –64,130 –64,554 –187,486 –506,542

Total, climate revenues 7 ���������������������������������

.........

.........

......... –77,158 –77,502 –77,826 –78,093 –78,461 –78,818 –79,130 –79,554 –232,486 –626,542

.........
.........

–20
–52

–27
–58

–27
–56

–28
–56

–29
–57

–30
–57

–31
–58

–32
–58

–33
–59

–34
–59

–131
–279

–291
–570

.........

–4

–4

–4

–4

–4

–4

–5

–5

–5

–5

–20

–44

.........

–27

–30

–30

–31

–31

–31

–32

–32

–32

–33

–149

–309

.........

–85

–480

–625 –1,225 –1,225 –1,225 –1,225 –1,225 –1,225 –1,225

–3,640

–9,765

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

.........
–58
850
–4
600

–513
–24
1,000
–34
–170

–524
–689
–700
–712
–724
–733
–743
–751
–10
–9
–7
–5
–4
–3
–3
–3
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
1,000
–40
–40
–40
–40
–40
–40
–40
–40
–316 –1,082 –1,093 –1,104 –1,119 –1,128 –1,140 –1,150

–2,426
–108
4,850
–158
–2,061

–6,089
–126
9,850
–358
–7,702

.........

–75

–100

–68

–79

–89

–156

–155

–183

–182

–180

–411

–1,267

.........

194

313

406

502

552

583

614

646

676

714

1,967

5,200

.........

370

381

394

407

421

435

450

465

481

497

1,973

4,301

.........
.........

–370
194

–381
313

–394
406

–407
502

–421
552

–435
583

–450
614

–465
646

–481
676

–497
714

–1,973
1,967

–4,301
5,200

Mandatory Initiatives and Savings: 8 
Agriculture:
Enact Animal Plant and Health Inspection
Service (APHIS) fees ����������������������������������������
Eliminate Cotton Storage payments �������������������
Enact Food Safety and Inspection Service (FSIS)
performance fee ������������������������������������������������
Enact Grain Inspection, Packers, and Stockyards
Administration (GIPSA) fees ���������������������������������
Reduce direct payments to farms with sales
above $500,000 �������������������������������������������������
Reduce Crop Insurance premiums/underwriting
gains and increase fees ������������������������������������
Reform payments to high-income farmers ���������
Reauthorize Child Nutrition �������������������������������
Reform Market Access Program �����������������������������������
Total, Agriculture �������������������������������������������

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Corps of Engineers:
Preserve cost-sharing of inland waterways
capital costs (receipt effect) 9 ����������������������������
Defense:
Implement concurrent receipt policy:
Effect on military retirement ������������������������
Accrual payments to the Military
Retirement Fund (non-PAYGO) ����������������
Military Retirement Fund offsetting receipts
(non-PAYGO) ����������������������������������������������
Total, Defense ������������������������������������������������

(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2009
Education:
Eliminate entitlements for financial
intermediaries under the Family Federal
Education Loan Program ���������������������������������
Make Pell Grant funding mandatory and
increase and index maximum awards ������������
Modernize and expand the Federal Perkins loan
program ������������������������������������������������������������
Create a new College Access and Completion
Fund ������������������������������������������������������������������
Total, Education ���������������������������������������������
Energy:
Repeal ultra-deepwater oil and gas research and
development program ����������������������������������������
Environmental Protection Agency:
Enact pesticide and pre-manufacture
notification (PMN) fees ������������������������������������
Health and Human Services (HHS):
Create home visitation program �����������������������������������
CHIP impact ��������������������������������������������������
Medicaid impact ��������������������������������������������
Create a LIHEAP trigger ������������������������������������
Extend TANF supplemental grants ��������������������
Promote high-risk insurance pools ���������������������
Improve child support enforcement tools �����������
Enact CMS survey and certification revisit user
fee ������������������������������������������������������������������������
Enact CMS survey and certification
recertification user fee �������������������������������������
Enact CMS survey and certification offsetting
receipts �������������������������������������������������������������
Support teen pregnancy prevention ��������������������
Total, HHS �����������������������������������������������������

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

......... –3,636 –6,037 –5,099 –3,605 –3,121 –3,422 –3,752 –3,970 –4,264 –4,535

2010–
2019

–21,498

–41,441

.........

23

832

1,869

2,777

6,434

4,871

6,248

7,631

9,153 11,006

11,935

50,844

.........

–726

–661

–540

–606

–692

–687

–678

–671

–661

–635

–3,225

–6,557

.........
100
500
500
......... –4,239 –5,366 –3,270

500
–934

500
3,121

400
1,162

.........
1,818

.........
2,990

.........
4,228

.........
2,100
5,836 –10,688

2,500
5,346

.........

–20

–40

–50

–50

–50

–30

–10

.........

.........

.........

–210

–250

.........

–52

–56

–55

–67

–69

–69

–71

–71

–73

–73

–299

–656

.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........
.........

87
.........
–1
329
.........
20
3

213
–1
–6
414
255
35
3

362
–1
–11
437
319
20
5

528
–2
–22
450
319
.........
8

710
.........
–37
450
319
.........
8

904
.........
–55
450
319
.........
8

1,112
.........
–81
450
319
.........
8

1,332
.........
–113
450
319
.........
8

1,564
.........
–149
450
319
.........
8

1,753
.........
–189
450
319
.........
8

1,900
–4
–77
2,080
1,212
75
27

8,565
–4
–664
4,330
2,807
75
67

.........

9

23

23

24

24

25

25

26

26

27

104

233

.........

.........

23

49

78

82

83

86

88

91

94

231

673

.........
.........
.........

–9
20
458

–46
42
955

–72
48
1,179

–101
49
1,330

–106
50
1,500

–108
50
1,676

–111
50
1,858

–114
50
2,046

–117
50
2,242

–121
50
2,391

–335
209
5,422

–906
459
15,635

.........

–124

–124

–124

–124

–124

–124

–124

–124

–71

.........

–620

–1,063

47

Homeland Security:
Enact CBP inspection user fees ��������������������������

2010

2010–
2014

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–11.  MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued

48

Table S–11.  MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2009
Housing and Urban Development:
Expand HOPE for Homeowners program ����������
Provide funding for the Affordable Housing
Trust Fund �������������������������������������������������������
Total, Housing and Urban Development ������
Interior:
Increase return from minerals on Federal lands:
Abandoned Mine Lands (AML) Payments to
Certified States ������������������������������������������
Fee on nonproducing oil and gas leases ��������
Repeal Energy Policy Act fee prohibition and
mandatory permit funds ���������������������������������
Reserve funds for insular affairs assistance �������
Recover Pick-Sloan project cost ����������������������������������
Total, Interior �������������������������������������������������

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2010–
2014

2010–
2019

1,237

667

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

1,904

1,904

.........
207

20
1,257

140
807

250
250

250
250

240
240

100
100

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

.........
.........

900
2,804

1,000
2,904

.........
.........

–142
–122

–164
–121

–208
–115

–210
–107

–206
–109

–90
–112

–90
–114

–94
–116

–158
–119

–161
–121

–930
–574

–1,523
–1,156

.........
.........
.........
.........

–42
7
–23
–322

–32
6
–23
–334

–33
6
–23
–373

–33
5
–23
–368

–33
5
–23
–366

–33
4
–23
–254

–9
4
–23
–232

–9
4
–23
–238

–9
4
–23
–305

–9
4
–23
–310

–173
29
–115
–1,763

–242
49
–230
–3,102

8,700

2,500

600

600

1,300

1,700

1,700

1,800

2,100

12,400

21,000

–485
–84
–569
124
8,255

–502
–149
–651
651
2,500

–342
–101
–443
1,015
1,172

–355
56
–299
1,217
1,518

–319
–69
–388
1,131
2,043

–328
–6
–334
1,036
2,402

–372
220
–152
1,047
2,595

–407
371
–36
1,083
2,847

–620
1,399
779
1,116
3,995

–1,684
–278
–1,962
3,007
13,445

–3,730
1,637
–2,093
8,420
27,327

–115

–119

–124

–109

–113

–118

–122

–127

–132

–544

–1,156

–87
–21

–86
337

–90
–228

–78
–351

–82
–267

–85
–140

–88
–47

–92
26

–96
47

–402
–263

–845
–644

200
–23

200
332

200
–242

200
–338

200
–262

200
–143

200
–57

200
7

200
19

1,000
–209

2,000
–645

Labor:
Change Extended Unemployment Insurance
benefits trigger �������������������������������������������������
.........
.........
Implement unemployment insurance integrity legislation: 9
PAYGO �����������������������������������������������������������
.........
.........
Non-PAYGO ���������������������������������������������������
.........
.........
Total �����������������������������������������������������������
.........
.........
Reform Trade Adjustment Assistance �����������������
.........
.........
Total, Labor ����������������������������������������������������
.........
.........
Treasury:
Levy payments to Federal contractors with delinquent tax debt:
Improve debt collection administrative
procedures (receipt effect)9 ������������������������
.........
–77
Increase levy authority to 100 percent for vendor
9
payments (receipt effect)   ��������������������������������������
.........
–61
Revise terrorism risk insurance program9 ����������
.........
.........
Restructure assistance to New York City: Provide
tax incentives for transportation infrastructure
(receipt effect) 9 ������������������������������������������������������������
.........
200
Total, Treasury �����������������������������������������������
.........
62

MID-SESSION REVIEW

207

(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
Totals
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2010–
2014

2019

2010–
2019

Veterans Affairs:
Implement concurrent receipt policy:
Effect on Veterans disability payments ��������

.........

47

49

51

53

54

54

54

53

53

52

254

520

Federal Communications Commission:
Auction domestic satellite spectrum �������������������
Provide permanent auction authority �����������������
Enact spectrum license user fee ���������������������������������
Total, FCC ������������������������������������������������������

.........
.........
–50
–50

–100
.........
–200
–300

–75
.........
–300
–375

–25
.........
–425
–450

.........
–200
–550
–750

.........
–200
–550
–750

.........
–200
–550
–750

.........
–200
–550
–750

.........
–200
–550
–750

.........
–200
–550
–750

.........
–200
–550
–750

–200
–400
–2,025
–2,625

–200
–1,400
–4,775
–6,375

Other Independent Agencies:
Reflect discrimination claims settlement �����������
Morris K. Udall Scholarship Fund (non-PAYGO) ����
Total, Other independent agencies ���������������

.........
.........
.........

690
2
692

230
4
234

230
4
234

.........
4
4

.........
4
4

.........
4
4

.........
4
4

.........
5
5

.........
5
5

.........
5
5

1,150
18
1,168

1,150
41
1,191

.........

.........

.........

.........

–166

–362

–480

–512

–472

–449

–418

–528

–2,859

......... –1,073 –3,519 –5,577 –8,054 –10,960 –6,539 –4,373 –3,283 –2,620 –2,439

–29,183

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–11.  MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued

–48,437

Social Security Administration:
Program integrity: require states and localities
to provide pension information (non-PAYGO) 
Multi-Agency:
Implement program integrity allocation
adjustments (non-PAYGO) 9 �����������������������������
Total, mandatory initiatives and savings ���

157 –2,895

506 –5,331 –8,605 –7,212 –4,146

–739

2,029

4,468

7,692 –23,537 –14,233

36

36

36

36

138

318

9

9

9

9

34

79

158

158

158

158

604

1,394

2

2

2

2

8

18

Outyear PAYGO Impact of Changes in Mandatory Programs included in Appropriations Language:
Energy, Permanent Reclassification of Power Marketing Administration Receipts to Offset Annual Expenses: 10
Sale and Transmission of Electric Energy,
Southwestern Power Administration �������������� .........
.........
33
34
35
36
36
Sale and Transmission of Electric Energy,
Southeastern Power Administration ��������������
.........
.........
8
8
9
9
9
Reclamation Fund, All Other, Sale of Power and
Other Utilities ��������������������������������������������������
.........
.........
144
149
153
158
158
Falcon and Amistad Operating and
Maintenance Fund Receipts ����������������������������
.........
.........
2
2
2
2
2
Justice:
.........

.........

238

477

715

953

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

2,383

2,383

.........

.........

425

670

914

1,158

205

205

205

205

205

3,167

4,192

Total, mandatory and receipt proposals and
climate policies ������������������������������������������������� 27,995 38,100 –5,226 –70,808 –82,834 –89,917 –93,619 –93,273 –93,711 –95,866 –97,502 –210,685 –684,656

49

Crime Victims Fund Obligation Delay ����������������
Total, outyear PAYGO impact of changes
in mandatory programs included in
appropriations language ���������������������������������

50

Table S–11.  MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)

HEALTH REFORM RESERVE FUND
Totals
2009
Aligning incentives toward quality:
Encourage hospitals serving Medicare
beneficiaries to reduce readmission
rates ������������������������������������������������������
Create hospital quality incentive
payments ����������������������������������������
Encourage primary care physicians
to administer the flu vaccine to
Medicare beneficiaries �������������������
Enable physicians to form voluntary
groups that coordinate care for
Medicare beneficiaries and to receive
performance-based payments for the
coordinated care ����������������������������������
Total, aligning incentives toward
quality ���������������������������������������

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2010–2014 2010–
2019

2019

.........

.........

.........

–680

–840

–930

–1,020

–1,110

–1,200

–1,280

–1,370

–2,450

–8,430

.........

.........

–400

–570

–840

–1,170

–1,540

–1,700

–1,830

–1,960

–2,100

–2,980

–12,110

.........

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

.........

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

.........

.........

–400

–1,250

–1,680

–2,100

–2,560

–2,810

–3,030

–3,240

–3,470

–5,430

–20,540

.........

......... –11,220 –16,810 –19,560 –21,680 –25,870 –26,080 –25,820 –30,160

.........

.........

.........

–150

–670

–1,690

–2,520

–3,400

–3,710

–3,960

–820

–16,100

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

*

.........

–10

–20

–20

–20

–30

–30

–40

–40

–40

–70

–250

–60

–130

–160

–190

–210

–230

–240

–270

–290

–320

–750

–2,100

Promoting efficiency and accountability: 
Establish competitive bidding for
Medicare Advantage ����������������������
.........
Promote efficient provision of acute
care through bundled Medicare
payments covering hospital and
post-acute settings �������������������������
.........
Address financial conflicts of interest in
physician-owned specialty hospitals �
.........
Ensure that Medicare makes
appropriate payments for imaging
services through the use of
radiology benefit managers �����������
.........
Provide private sector enhancements to
ensure Medicare pays accurately ��������
.........
a

–47,590 –177,200

MID-SESSION REVIEW

(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)

HEALTH REFORM RESERVE FUND —Continued
Totals
2009
Promote cost-effective purchase and
delivery of Medicaid prescription
drugs by (1) increasing the
Medicaid rebate amounts, (2)
extending to and collecting
rebates on behalf of managed care
plans, and (3) applying rebates
to new formulations of existing
drugs �����������������������������������������������
Promote increased generic
medication utilization by
establishing a pathway for FDA
approval of generic biologics ���������
Expand availability of family planning
services under Medicaid ��������������������
Ensure appropriate Medicaid
payments through use of the
National Correct Coding Initiative
(NCCI) edits �����������������������������������
Improve Medicare home health
payments to align with costs ���������
Reallocate Medicare and Medicaid
Improvement Funds ����������������������

2010–2014 2010–
2019

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

.........

–1,440

–1,720

–1,680

–1,780

–1,900

–2,050

–2,130

–2,270

–2,430

–2,550

–8,520

–19,950

.........

.........

.........

.........

20

–10

–470

–1,110

–1,330

–1,570

–1,880

10

–6,350

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–5

–5

–10

–10

–15

–20

–5

–65

.........

–10

–25

–40

–45

–55

–75

–85

–90

–95

–100

–175

–620

.........

–460

–2,450

–2,730

–3,100

–3,410

–3,760

–4,170

–4,390

–4,580

–5,020

–12,150

–34,070

.........

.........

......... –23,230

–150

–150

–150

–150

.........

–23,230

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–11.  MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued

–23,830

.........

.........

–1,970

Encouraging Shared Responsibility:
Require certain higher-income
beneficiaries enrolled in the
Medicare drug benefit to pay
higher premiums, as is currently
required for physician and
outpatient services ������������������������

.........

.........

–390

–590

–670

Additional Federal Health Savings:
Combine Medicare and Medicaid
disproportionate share hospital
payments into an uncompensated
care assistance fund to hospitals ��

.........

.........

.........

.........

–810

–4,335 –15,850 –22,075 –49,070 –30,140 –36,315 –38,030 –38,700 –44,050

–760

–870

–980

–1,110

–1,270

–1,430

–4,780 –10,400 –14,930 –19,570 –25,530 –30,420

–93,300 –280,535

–2,410

–8,070

–5,590 –106,440

51

.........

Total, promoting efficiency and
accountability ���������������������������

52

Table S–11.  MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)

HEALTH REFORM RESERVE FUND —Continued
Totals
2009
Incorporate productivity
adjustments into Medicare
payment updates ���������������������������
Pay appropriately for prescription
drugs under the Part D program ����
Adopt MedPAC 2010 update
recommendations for skilled
nursing facilities, inpatient
rehabilitation facilities, and longterm care hospitals ������������������������
Adjust equipment utilization factor
for physician imaging services to
better reflect actual usage �������������
Improve Medicare/Medicaid program
integrity �����������������������������������������

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2010–2014 2010–
2019

.........

–10

–1,540

–2,990

–5,200

–7,780 –10,830 –14,550 –18,090 –21,780 –26,720

–17,520 –109,490

.........

.........

–2,230

–4,990

–5,680

–6,870

–8,110

–8,650 –10,740 –13,350 –14,350

–19,770

–74,970

.........

–780

–1,260

–1,100

–1,240

–1,360

–1,500

–1,650

–1,720

–1,810

–1,960

–5,740

–14,380

.........

–260

–630

–580

–510

–530

–560

–620

–690

–750

–810

–2,510

–5,940

.........

.........

–70

–130

–140

–150

–170

–180

–210

–240

–250

–490

–1,540

–5,730

Total, additional federal health savings ����

.........

–1,050

Total, Medicare/Medicaid savings (–) �����
Limit the tax rate at which itemized
deductions reduce tax liability to 28
percent �������������������������������������������������

.........

–3,020 –10,855 –27,480 –38,005 –73,400 –65,140 –80,685 –93,190 –106,670 –123,460 –152,760 –621,905

.........

.........

–9,790 –13,580 –21,470 –31,570 –40,580 –51,020 –63,460 –74,510

–8,814 –23,987 –27,095 –29,580 –32,170 –34,676 –37,165 –39,557 –41,845

–89,476 –274,889

–1,108
–7
–13
–4

–1,174
–7
–14
–4

–1,224
–7
–15
–4

–1,284
–7
–17
–5

–1,349
–7
–17
–6

–1,416
–7
–17
–6

–3,954
–29
–52
–11

–10,401
–64
–132
–36

–278

–301

–324

–344

–365

–386

–1,233

–2,953

–1,309
–1,198

–1,398
–1,019

–1,486
–270

–1,571
–282

–1,652
–295

–1,748
–307

–4,504
–4,355

–12,359
–6,528

–2,212

–2,454

–2,710

–2,980

–3,268

–3,570

–7,948

–22,930

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Reduce the tax gap/improve compliance and make reforms to close tax loopholes:
Reduce the tax gap/improve compliance:
.........
–105
–743
–945 –1,053
Expand information reporting �����
Improve compliance by businesses ����
.........
–4
–6
–6
–6
Strengthen tax administration ����
.........
–6
–9
–11
–13
Expand penalties ��������������������������
.........
–1
–2
–2
–2
Make reforms to close tax loopholes:
Financial institutions and
products ������������������������������������
.........
–178
–284
–237
–256
Insurance companies and
products ������������������������������������
.........
–408
–695
–955 –1,137
Tax accounting methods �������������������
.........
.........
–217 –1,170 –1,770
Modify estate and gift tax
valuation discounts and other
reforms ��������������������������������������
.........
–410 –1,578 –1,765 –1,983

–51,620 –312,760

(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)

HEALTH REFORM RESERVE FUND —Continued
Totals
2009
Subtotal, reduce the tax gap/
improve compliance and make
reforms to close tax loopholes ��

.........

2010–2014 2010–
2019

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

–1,112

–3,534

–5,091

–6,220

–6,129

–6,371

–6,040

–6,490

–6,959

–7,457

–22,086

–55,403

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

–2,241

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–11.  MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued

–2,241

Modify alternative fuel mixture credit ��

.........

–2,241

Total, revenues (–) �������������������������������

.........

–3,353 –12,348 –29,078 –33,315 –35,709 –38,541 –40,716 –43,655 –46,516 –49,302 –113,803 –332,533

Total available for benefits (–) ��������������

.........

–6,373 –23,203 –56,558 –71,320 –109,109 –103,681 –121,401 –136,845 –153,186 –172,762 –266,563 –954,438

* Savings negligible or undetermined at this time.
a 
Beyond the proposals specified below, the Administration has proposed the creation of an independent, executive-branch agency called the Independent Medicare
Advisory Council, which would be empowered to make recommendations on annual Medicare payment rates as well as other Medicare reforms, and which could yield
substantial cost savings and quality enhancements in the Medicare program over the long term.
Note:  For receipt effects, positive figures indicate lower receipts.  For outlay effects, positive figures indicate higher outlays.  For net costs, positive figures indicate higher deficits.
1 
Receipt effects unless otherwise noted.
2 
The Administration continues to support expanding refundability of the child tax credit by lowering the refundability threshold to $3,000, a well as the expansion of
the earned income tax credit for married couples by increasing the phase-out threshold by $5,000 compared to other filers. These policies were shown as “tax cuts for families and individuals” in the May Budget, but they are no longer reflected here, since they are now incorporated in the baseline projection of current policy (see Table S–8).
3
The estimates for this proposal include effects on outlays. The outlay effects included in the totals above are listed below:
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

703 21,678 21,430 21,125 20,845 20,695 20,562 20,469 20,488

2010–
2014

2010–
2019

.........

.........

64,936

167,995

.........

.........

.........

1,439

1,417

1,407

1,413

1,429

1,456

1,490

1,532

4,263

11,583

.........

200

526

1,924

1,985

1,786

1,659

1,705

1,761

1,840

1,937

6,421

15,323

.........

.........

.........

2,159

2,250

2,326

2,445

2,606

2,707

2,755

2,948

6,735

20,196

.........

61

21

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

82

82

.........

–125

–71

–74

–72

–72

–71

–72

–74

–77

–80

–414

–788

.........

136

1,179 27,126 27,010 26,572 26,291 26,363 26,412 26,477 26,825

82,023

214,391

53

Provide making work pay tax credit 
Expand earned income tax credit ����
Expand saver’s credit and automatic
enrollment in IRAs ������������������������
Provide American opportunity tax
credit ����������������������������������������������
Continue remaining expiring
provisions through calendar year
2010 �����������������������������������������������
Eliminate advanced earned income
tax credit ���������������������������������������
Total outlay effects of receipt
proposals ���������������������������������

54

Table S–11.  MANDATORY AND RECEIPT PROPOSALS—Continued
(Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars)
The estimates for this proposal include start-up costs associated with establishing a new agency to administer the automatic workplace pensions program.
The Budget assumes that some aviation excise taxes are modified and replaced with direct user charges. The estimated cost of reducing the excise taxes is reflected
here. The user charges are considered discretionary and offset discretionary budget authority and outlays.
6
This provision is estimated to have zero receipt effects under the Administration’s current projections for energy prices.
7
Shown here are those proceeds from auctioning emission allowances that are reserved for clean energy technology initiatives and to compensate families through the
Making Work Pay tax cut. These proceeds are included in the grand totals as receipts, though they could alternatively be considered offsets to outlays. Any additional
revenue will be used to compensate vulnerable households, communities and businesses for increased energy costs.
8
Outlay effects unless otherwise noted.
9
The estimates for this proposal include effects on receipts. The receipt effects included in the totals above are listed below.
4
5

2009
Preserve cost-sharing of inland
waterways capital costs ����������������

.........

2010

2011

–75

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

2010–
2014

2010–
2019

–100

–68

–79

–89

–156

–155

–183

–182

–180

–411

–1,267

Implement unemployment insurance integrity legislation:
.........

.........

–39

–47

–42

–69

–43

–55

–99

–129

–336

–197

–859

Non-PAYGO ����������������������������
Revise terrorism risk insurance
program �����������������������������������������

.........

.........

.........

10

58

214

89

157

386

541

1,573

282

3,028

.........

.........

39

493

150

317

511

576

522

416

285

999

3,309

–118

–122

–127

–132

–544

–1,156

–85

–88

–92

–96

–402

–845

200

200

200

200

1,000

2,000

–617

–462

–371

–380

–13,350

–16,640

–97

154

256

934

–12,623

–12,430

Levy payments to Federal contractors with delinquent tax debt:
Improve debt collection
administrative procedures �����
.........
–77
–115
–119
–124
–109
–113
Increase levy authority to 100
percent for vendor payments ���
.........
–61
–87
–86
–90
–78
–82
Restructure assistance to New York
City: Provide tax incentives for
transportation infrastructure �������
.........
200
200
200
200
200
200
Implement program integrity
allocation adjustments – IRS �������
.........
–290 –1,119 –2,348 –3,864 –5,729 –1,460
Total receipt effects of
mandatory proposals ��������������
.........
–303 –1,221 –1,965 –3,791 –5,343 –1,054
10

These proposals would not be subject to PAYGO under the Administration’s PAYGO proposal.

MID-SESSION REVIEW

PAYGO ������������������������������������

Deficit increases (+) or decreases (–) in millions of dollars
Total 1
2010–2019 total mandatory and receipt proposals and climate policies, Table S–11 ����������������������������������������������������������������
Plus 2009 effects: PAYGO includes a “lookback” provision to capture current-year costs. ����������������������������������������������������
2009–2019 total mandatory and receipt proposals and climate policies, Table S–11 �������������������������������������������������

–684,656
27,995
–656,661

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–12.  BRIDGE BETWEEN TOTAL MANDATORY AND
RECEIPT PROPOSALS AND PAYGO SCOREKEEPING

Adjustments for Non-PAYGO items on Table S–11:
Loss of FAA aviation excise tax receipts �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Savings from not extending upper-income tax cuts. ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Program integrity and other savings generated by increased discretionary funding. �����������������������������������������������������������
Total, adjustments for non-PAYGO items �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

–77,082
592,396
49,618
564,932

Adjustments for Extension of Programs Subject to PAYGO in Baseline Projection of Current Policy:
Plus Transitional Medical Assistance and Qualifying Individuals Programs ������������������������������������������������������������������������
Plus diabetes programs in Indian Health Services and National Institutes of Health ���������������������������������������������������������
Total, adjustments for extension of programs subject to PAYGO in baseline projection of current policy �����

15,610
2,205
17,815

Net scoreable PAYGO savings in Administration’s budget �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

–73,914

Totals represent 2009–2019 unless otherwise stated.

1  

55

56

Table S–13.  OUTLAYS FOR MANDATORY PROGRAMS UNDER CURRENT LAW 1, 2
(In billions of dollars)
2008
Actual
Human resources programs:
Education, training, employment and social services ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

Estimate
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Health ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Medicare ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Income security �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Social Security ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Veterans’ benefits and services ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Subtotal, human resources programs ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

9
227
386
373
612
44
1,650

–18
289
425
479
677
50
1,902

1
317
441
542
702
58
2,059

9
306
474
498
729
65
2,081

11
320
478
421
755
62
2,045

11
345
528
418
792
70
2,164

8
368
591
415
837
75
2,294

Other mandatory programs:
National defense �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
International affairs �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Energy ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Agriculture ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Commerce and housing credit ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Transportation ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Community and regional development ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Justice ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
General government �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Undistributed offsetting receipts ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Other functions �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

4
–9
–3
10
25
2
-*
*
3
–86
–1

4
–7
–2
18
377
2
2
2
4
–91
1

6
–3
1
19
104
3
1
4
4
–83
1

5
–3
2
19
20
2
1
3
5
–86
1

5
–2
4
11
–15
2
1
2
5
–90
1

5
–3
*
16
–24
2
1
2
4
–94
1

6
–3
–1
16
–24
2
-*
2
5
–98
1

Subtotal, other mandatory programs ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

–55

310

55

–31

–77

–89

–97

Total, outlays for mandatory programs under current law �����������������������������������������������������

1,595

2,213

2,115

2,050

1,968

2,075

2,198
MID-SESSION REVIEW

*$500 million or less.
 This table meets the requirements of Section 221(b) of the Legislative Reorganization Act of 1970.
2
 Estimates are based on the Budget Enforcement Act (BEA) baseline. The BEA baseline differs in some instances from current law (see the chapter on “Current
Services Estimates” in the Analytical Perspectives volume of the 2010 Budget) and also from the baseline projection of current policy (see Table S-7).
1

(Budget authority in billions of dollars)
2009
2009 Recovery 2010
Enacted
Act
Request

Outyears
2011

2012

2013

Totals
2014

20102014

20102019

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–14.  FUNDING LEVELS FOR APPROPRIATED
(“DISCRETIONARY”) PROGRAMS BY AGENCY

Discretionary Policy by Agency: 
Departments:
Agriculture �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
International Food Aid and Other Supplemental Funding ��������������������
Commerce ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Census Bureau  ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
�
Defense (DOD) �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
DOD Base, excluding Overseas Contingency Operations ������������������������
�
DOD 2009 Overseas Contingency Operations—Enacted 1 �����������������������
DOD 2010 Overseas Contingency Operations—Proposed 1,2 ��������������������
Education 3 �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Energy ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Energy—2009 one-time cost ����������������������������������������������������������������������
Health and Human Services (HHS) 4 ������������������������������������������������������������
HHS—2009 Supplemental Funding, including H1N1 Response  �����������
�
Homeland Security (DHS) 5 ���������������������������������������������������������������������������
Housing and Urban Development ����������������������������������������������������������������
Interior �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Justice ������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Labor ��������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
State and Other International Programs Funding 6 ������������������������������������
State and International Programs—2009 Supplemental Funding 6 ������������������
Transportation 7 ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Budget Authority (BA)  ������������������������������������������������������������������������������
�
Obligation Limitations  �����������������������������������������������������������������������������
�
Treasury ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Veterans Affairs 8 �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

6.9
.........
7.9
1.0

25.7
.........
13.8
7.4

26.7
.........
8.0
1.3

27.1
.........
7.8
1.0

27.4
.........
8.5
1.0

27.8
.........
8.7
1.0

134.6
.........
46.9
11.7

283.7
.........
94.6
22.3

659.3
513.4
145.9
.........
41.4
33.9
7.5
88.1
7.7
42.0
40.7
11.3
25.8
13.1
50.5
13.8
71.5
17.8
53.7
12.6
47.8
0.2

7.4
7.4
.........
.........
81.1
38.7
.........
22.4
.........
2.8
13.6
3.0
4.0
4.8
0.6
.........
48.1
48.1
.........
0.3
1.4
.........

663.8
533.8
.........
130.0
46.7
26.4
.........
80.5
.........
41.1
43.7
12.0
24.0
14.1
52.1
.........
72.3
57.5
14.8
13.4
53.0
.........

591.8
541.8
.........
50.0
53.6
26.4
.........
84.3
.........
42.0
45.0
12.2
27.8
13.3
56.4
.........
64.1
21.3
42.9
13.7
57.0
.........

600.7
550.7
.........
50.0
58.5
27.1
.........
85.5
.........
41.6
46.6
12.4
28.0
13.4
60.7
.........
64.1
24.3
39.8
14.2
57.5
.........

611.1
561.1
.........
50.0
61.6
27.6
.........
87.5
.........
41.1
47.8
12.6
28.1
13.5
65.1
.........
65.2
23.4
41.8
14.7
58.1
.........

624.5
574.5
.........
50.0
64.5
28.2
.........
90.7
.........
40.6
49.0
12.8
28.3
13.5
69.6
.........
66.4
21.4
45.0
15.3
59.2
.........

3,092.0
2,762.0
.........
330.0
284.9
135.6
.........
428.5
.........
206.5
232.1
62.1
136.2
67.8
303.9
.........
332.1
147.9
184.2
71.4
284.8
.........

6,435.1
5,855.1
.........
580.0
626.4
287.0
.........
923.5
.........
423.6
498.8
130.9
285.7
139.1
691.3
.........
682.9
261.6
421.3
158.7
597.4
.........

57

Veterans Affairs—2009 one-time cost �������������������������������������������������������

25.5
1.4
9.4
3.1

58

Table S–14.  FUNDING LEVELS FOR APPROPRIATED
(“DISCRETIONARY”) PROGRAMS BY AGENCY—Continued
(Budget authority in billions of dollars)
2009
2009
2010
Enacted Recovery Request
Act
Major Agencies:
Corps of Engineers ����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Corps of Engineers—2009 one-time cost  ��������������������������������������������������
�
Environmental Protection Agency ����������������������������������������������������������������
General Services Administration ������������������������������������������������������������������
National Aeronautics and Space Administration ����������������������������������������
National Science Foundation �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Small Business Administration ��������������������������������������������������������������������
Social Security Administration 4 �������������������������������������������������������������������
Corporation for National and Community Service ��������������������������������������
National Infrastructure Bank �����������������������������������������������������������������������
Climate Policy (Clean Energy Technologies) ������������������������������������������������������
Other Agencies �����������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

12.0
6.6
7.6
0.8
17.8
6.5
0.6
8.6
0.9
.........
.........
18.3

4.6
.........
7.2
5.9
1.0
3.0
0.7
1.1
0.2
.........
.........
0.3

5.1
.........
10.5
0.6
18.7
7.0
0.8
9.3
1.1
5.0
.........
19.8

Outyears
2011

5.2
.........
10.6
0.7
18.6
7.2
0.9
10.3
1.3
5.0
.........
18.6

2012

5.2
.........
10.7
0.6
18.6
8.5
0.9
10.9
1.7
5.0
15.0
18.5

2013

5.3
.........
10.8
0.6
18.6
9.1
0.9
11.4
2.0
5.0
15.0
18.4

Totals
2014

5.3
.........
10.9
0.6
18.9
9.7
1.1
12.0
2.4
5.0
15.0
18.4

20102014
26.1
.........
53.5
3.2
93.4
41.6
4.5
53.8
8.6
25.0
45.0
93.6

20102019
54.8
.........
110.9
6.4
191.7
97.9
10.5
120.0
25.8
25.2
120.0
192.0

Grand Total, Discretionary Budget Authority ���������������������������������������������� 1,192.3

267.0 1,245.9 1,158.0 1,200.9 1,225.3 1,253.3

6,083.4 12,792.5

Grand Total, Discretionary Budgetary Resources ��������������������������������������� 1,246.1
Memorandum:
Grand Total, Discretionary Budgetary Resources adjusted for Inflation and
Population �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������������� 1,272.3
Grand Total, Discretionary Budgetary Resources as a Percent of GDP �����������
8.8%

267.0 1,260.7 1,200.8 1,240.7 1,267.1 1,298.3

6,267.6 13,213.8

272.7
1.9%

5,940.0 11,619.7
7.8%
7.1%

1,260.7
8.7%

1,171.8
7.9%

1,177.8
7.7%

1,167.9
7.5%

1,161.9
7.2%

The DOD Overseas Contingency Operations totals for 2009 Enacted and 2010 Proposed include amounts that will be transferred to the U.S. Coast Guard in DHS.
The Budget includes placeholder estimates of $50 billion per year for Overseas Contingency Operations in 2011 and beyond.  These estimates do not reflect any specific policy decisions.
3 
Adjusted for advance appropriations, 2009 funding for the Department of Education is $46.2 billion.  All numbers exclude funding for Pell Grants.
4 
Funding from the Hospital Insurance and Supplementary Medical Insurance trust funds for administrative expenses incurred by the Social Security Administration
that support the Medicare program are included in the HHS total and not in the Social Security Administration total.
5 
The DHS level includes $1.8 billion for BioShield in 2009 and -$1.6 billion in 2010 for a transfer of BioShield balances to HHS; adjusted for BioShield, the DHS totals
for 2009 and 2010 are $40.2 billion and $42.7 billion, respectively. These levels also exclude $0.2 billion in transfers, both in 2009 and 2010, from the Navy to the Coast
Guard in Overseas Contingency Operations funding.
1 
2 

MID-SESSION REVIEW

(Budget authority in billions of dollars)
The International total includes estimated costs of $0.4 billion for the increases in the U.S. contribution to the IMF Quota and New Arrangements to Borrow, calculated on a credit reform basis with adjustment to the discount rate for market risk.
7  
Effective with 2011, the Budget assumes a scenario to modify the financing system of the Federal Aviation Administration that replaces certain aviation excise taxes
with direct user charges. The direct user charges are considered to be discretionary and offset discretionary budget authority and outlays, while the aviation excise taxes
are considered to be a receipt.  Because of this budgetary treatment, this scenario results in lower discretionary budget authority starting in 2011, which is reflected
here.  It also reduces aviation excise taxes. That is shown in Table S-11.
8  
The Veterans Affairs total is net of medical care collections.
6  

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–14.  FUNDING LEVELS FOR APPROPRIATED
(“DISCRETIONARY”) PROGRAMS BY AGENCY—Continued

59

60

Table S–15.  FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FINANCING AND DEBT
(In billions of dollars)
Actual
2008

Estimate
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

Financing:
Unified budget deficit ���������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Other transactions affecting borrowing from the public:
Changes in financial assets and liabilities:1 
Change in Treasury operating cash balance ���������������������������������
Net disbursements of credit financing accounts:

459

1,580 1,502 1,123

796

775

778

739

795

810

815

917

296

–102 .........

–200 .........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

.........

Direct loan accounts ����������������������������������������������������������������������

27

436

252

108

73

79

81

75

72

70

71

67

Guaranteed loan accounts �������������������������������������������������������������

6

4

–6

1

4

5

5

6

5

5

3

–*

Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP) equity purchase
accounts �������������������������������������������������������������������������������������

.........

141

–28

–16

–19

–18

–19

–17

–14

–14

–15

–12

Net purchases of non-Federal securities by the National
Railroad Retirement Investment Trust (NRRIT) ����������������������
Net change in other financial assets and liabilities2 ���������������������

–7
–12

–5
–1
–1
–1
......... ......... ......... .........

–1
.........

–1
.........

–1
.........

–1
.........

–1
.........

–1
.........

–1
.........

Subtotal, changes in financial assets and liabilities ��������������������
Seigniorage on coins ����������������������������������������������������������������������������

310
–1

474
–*

218
–*

–108
–1

58
–1

64
–1

66
–1

63
–1

61
–1

60
–1

57
–1

54
–1

Total, other transactions affecting borrowing from the public 

309

473

217

–109

57

64

66

62

60

59

57

53

2,053 1,719 1,015

853

839

844

801

855

869

872

971

2,053 1,719 1,015
853
173
156
173
260
2
1
2
2
2,228 1,876 1,190 1,115

839
282
2
1,123

844
294
1
1,140

801
323
2
1,126

855
303
2
1,160

869
296
2
1,168

872
305
2
1,179

971
263
1
1,235

Total, requirement to borrow from the public (equals
change in debt held by the public) �������������������������������������

768

Changes in Debt Subject to Statutory Limitation:
Change in debt held by the public ������������������������������������������������������������
Change in debt held by Government accounts �����������������������������������������
Change in other factors �����������������������������������������������������������������������������
Total, change in debt subject to statutory limitation �������������������������

768
267
3
1,039

Debt issued by Treasury ����������������������������������������������������������������������������
Adjustment for discount, premium, and coverage3 �����������������������������������
Total, debt subject to statutory limitation4 �����������������������������������������������

9,961 12,187 14,063 15,251 16,365 17,486 18,625 19,749 20,908 22,075 23,253 24,487
–1
1
1
2
4
5
6
7
9
9
10
10
9,960 12,188 14,064 15,254 16,368 17,491 18,631 19,757 20,916 22,084 23,263 24,498

Debt Outstanding, End of Year:
Gross Federal debt:5 
Debt issued by Treasury ����������������������������������������������������������������������

9,961 12,187 14,063 15,251 16,365 17,486 18,625 19,749 20,908 22,075 23,253 24,487

MID-SESSION REVIEW

Debt Subject to Statutory Limitation, End of Year:

(In billions of dollars)
Actual
2008
Debt issued by other agencies �������������������������������������������������������������
Total, gross Federal debt �����������������������������������������������������������������
Held by:
Debt held by Government accounts ����������������������������������������������������
Debt held by the public 6 ����������������������������������������������������������������������

Estimate
2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016

2017

2018

2019

25
25
25
24
24
23
23
22
22
20
18
18
9,986 12,212 14,087 15,276 16,388 17,509 18,648 19,772 20,930 22,095 23,272 24,505
4,183
5,803

4,356 4,513 4,686 4,946 5,228 5,522 5,845 6,148 6,444 6,749 7,012
7,856 9,575 10,590 11,443 12,281 13,126 13,927 14,782 15,651 16,523 17,493

5,803

SUMMARY TABLES

Table S–15.  FEDERAL GOVERNMENT FINANCING AND DEBT—Continued

7,856 9,575 10,590 11,443 12,281 13,126 13,927 14,782 15,651 16,523 17,493

Debt Held by the Public Net of Financial Assets:
Debt held by the public ������������������������������������������������������������������������������
Less financial assets net of liabilities:
Treasury operating cash balance ��������������������������������������������������������

70

70

70

70

70

70

70

70

Total, financial assets net of liabilities �������������������������������������������

196
–42
.........
2
25
–46
505

632
884
993 1,066
–39
–45
–43
–40
141
113
97
78
108
149
173
173
20
19
17
17
–46
–46
–46
–46
1,085 1,344 1,260 1,318

1,145
–35
60
173
16
–46
1,382

1,226
–29
41
173
15
–46
1,449

1,301
–24
24
173
13
–46
1,511

1,372
–18
10
173
12
–46
1,572

1,442
–13
–5
173
11
–46
1,632

1,513
–10
–20
173
9
–46
1,689

1,580
–10
–32
173
8
–46
1,743

Debt held by the public net of financial assets ����������������������������

5,297

6,770 8,230 9,330 10,125 10,899 11,677 12,415 13,210 14,019 14,834 15,751

Credit financing account balances:
Direct loan accounts ������������������������������������������������������������������������
Guaranteed loan accounts ��������������������������������������������������������������
TARP equity purchase accounts �����������������������������������������������������������
Government-sponsored enterprise preferred stock ���������������������������
Non-Federal securities held by NRRIT ����������������������������������������������
Other assets net of liabilities ��������������������������������������������������������������

372

270

270

70

* $500 million or less.
A decrease in the Treasury operating cash balance (which is an asset) is a means of financing a deficit and therefore has a negative sign; that is, the reduction in cash
balances reduces the amount that would otherwise be borrowed from the public. An increase in checks outstanding (which is a liability) is also a means of financing a
deficit and therefore also has a negative sign.
2 
Besides checks outstanding, includes accrued interest payable on Treasury debt, uninvested deposit fund balances, allocations of special drawing rights, and other
liability accounts; and, as an offset, cash and monetary assets (other than the Treasury operating cash balance), other asset accounts, and profit on sale of gold.
3 
Consists mainly of debt issued by the Federal Financing Bank (which is not subject to limit), debt held by the Federal Financing Bank, the unamortized discount (less
premium) on public issues of Treasury notes and bonds (other than zero-coupon bonds), and the unrealized discount on Government account series securities.
4 
The statutory debt limit is $12,104 billion, as enacted on February 17, 2009.
5 
Treasury securities held by the public and zero-coupon bonds held by Government accounts are almost all measured at sales price plus amortized discount or less
amortized premium. Agency debt securities are almost all measured at face value. Treasury securities in the Government account series are otherwise measured at face
value less unrealized discount (if any).
6 
At the end of 2008, the Federal Reserve Banks held $491.1 billion of Federal securities and the rest of the public held $5,311.6 billion. Debt held by the Federal Reserve
Banks is not estimated for future years.
1 

61

)

Executive Office of the President
Office of Management and Budget
Wa s h i n g t o n , D. C . 2 0 5 0 3


Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis, One Federal Reserve Bank Plaza, St. Louis, MO 63102