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TOLEDO, OHIO MSA | JULY 2016 Toledo — More Employment Growth and Less Population Loss Toledo’s economy continues to expand. There was strong growth in manufacturing and professional and business services employment in 2015. Per capita GDP and per capita income rose faster than in the state or nation in 2014. Recently the metro area’s unemployment rate has gone up, but it appears to be a reflection of increased labor force entry rather than job loss. Population loss has slowed down markedly in recent years, which improves the region’s long-term outlook. METRO AREA SNAPSHOT Unemployment Rate April 2016 Median Home Values One-year change April 2016 Payroll Employment Credit Card Delinquency Rates One-year change December 2015 One-year change 2016:Q1 One-year change (thousands) Toledo 5.1% –0.2 $98,800 2.5% 293 2.7% 6.8% –0.7 Ohio 5.2% 0.2 $120,000 2.7% 5,288 1.2% 6.9% 0.0 United States 5.0% –0.4 $187,000 4.9% 140,751 1.9% 7.7% 0.2 Nearby metro average 4.8% –0.3 $136,000 4.3% 1,166 1.6% 6.7% 0.0 Toledo’s unemployment rate was 5.1 percent in April 2016, comparable to state and national rates Percent 16 14 — Toledo — Ohio — United States — Nearby metro average 12 10 8 6 ■ Recession 4 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE In April 2016, 5.1 percent of the Toledo metro area’s labor force was unemployed. This rate is comparable to the nation’s (5.0 percent) and state’s (5.2 percent). The unemployment rate has been on an upward trend since September 2015 in both Toledo and Ohio. Estimates from the Bureau of Labor Statistics indicate that the unemployment rate is increasing because the number of people in the labor force is rising, which suggests that people have entered Toledo’s labor force as its economy has improved. 2 0 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics. In 2014, Toledo’s per capita GDP increased 4.3 percent GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Index, 2007=100 110 — Toledo — Ohio — United States — Nearby metro average 105 100 ■ Recession 95 90 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics. 2015 The level of output per person continued to rise during 2014 in Toledo, nearby metro areas, Ohio, and the United States. However, per capita GDP increased 4.3 percent in Toledo in 2014, a larger percent increase than in the nation, state, or nearby metro areas (1.7, 3.5, and 1.3 percent, respectively). By 2014, Toledo’s per capita GDP was 8.4 percent higher than it was at the start of the Great Recession, while the nation still had not fully recovered its per capita GDP. Strong growth in manufacturing and professional services output since 2011 has helped Toledo’s recovery, while the metro area’s population decline has had mixed effects: GDP is divided across fewer people but industries that serve local residents, such as retail trade, have experienced declines in output. TOLEDO, OHIO MSA FOURTH DISTRICT METRO MIX YOUR DISTRICT, YOUR DATA JULY 2016 EMPLOYMENT AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS The Toledo metro area added more than 7,800 jobs in 2015 EMPLOYMENT Index, 2007:M12=100 The Toledo metro area had relatively strong employment growth in 2015. The region added 7,832 jobs in 2015—a 2.7 percent increase. This is a faster rate of growth than seen in the nation, state, or nearby metro areas (1.9, 1.2, and 1.6 percent, respectively). However, employment in Toledo remained below pre-recession levels, while in Ohio employment was nearly at its pre-recession levels and the nation and nearby metro areas had more than 3.0 percent more employment than at the beginning of the Great Recession. 106 104 — Toledo — Ohio — United States — Nearby metro average 102 100 98 96 ■ Recession 94 92 90 88 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. With the exception of the education and health services sector, all of Toledo’s sectoral employment growth outperformed Ohio EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR In 2015, the sector with the fastest employment growth in Toledo was the professional and business services sector. It grew 7.4 percent, more than three times its growth rate at the national level. The next fastest-growing sector was construction, in which employment grew 6.4 percent in Toledo, 3.1 percent in Ohio, and 5.2 percent in the United States. All but one sector grew more in Toledo than in Ohio: education and health services, which lost 0.5 percent in Toledo and gained 1.9 percent in Ohio. Professional and business services Construction Leisure and hospitality Trade, transportation, and utilities — Toledo — Ohio — United States Manufacturing Government Financial activities Education and health services –2 0 2 4 Percent change 6 8 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. The professional and business services sector added more than 2,500 jobs in 2015 RELATIVE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH Increasing employment growth Percent 8 7 Toledo saw broad-based employment gains in 2015, with employment growing by at least 2.4 percent in all its major sectors except education and health services, which lost 245 jobs. The professional and business services sector added 2,500 jobs, the largest increase of any of the metro area’s sectors. The next-largest increase was in the trade, transportation, and utilities sector, which accounts for a relatively large share of Toledo’s employment and added 1,553 jobs. Manufacturing, another relatively large sector in the metro area, added 1,132 jobs. Professional and business services Construction 6 5 4 Leisure and hospitality 3 Government 2 Trade, transportation, and utilities Manufacturing Larger share of metro’s overall employment Financial activities 1 0 –1 Education and health services 0 5 10 Percent 15 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of CLEVELAND 20 TOLEDO, OHIO MSA FOURTH DISTRICT METRO MIX YOUR DISTRICT, YOUR DATA JULY 2016 INCOME In 2014, Toledo’s income per capita growth outpaced state and national performance I NCOME PER CAPITA Thousands of dollars 48 Toledo’s per capita income rose $1,029 to $40,827 in 2014, an increase of 42 — Toledo — Ohio — United States — Nearby metro average 40 ■ Recession 46 44 2.6 percent. This is larger than the increases in nearby metro areas, Ohio, and the United States, which all rose about 2.0 percent. However, Toledo’s per capita income remains well below that of the state and nation. 38 36 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics. CONSUMER FINANCES Low home prices in the Toledo metro area kept consumer debt levels down C ONSUMER DEBT Thousands of dollars 50 35 — Toledo — Ohio — United States — Nearby metro average 30 ■ Recession 45 40 t $23,613 per adult with a credit report in the first quarter of 2016, A the Toledo metro area’s average balance of mortgage, auto, and credit card debt continued to sit below that of Ohio, nearby metro areas, and especially the United States. This is largely due to the metro area having relatively low home prices, which keep mortgage balances low. The metro area’s decline in typical debt balance since the recovery began (24 percent) is a littler larger than that of the nation and state (both 22 percent). 25 20 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: Authors’ calculations from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax. The metro area’s credit card delinquency rate continued its downward trend in the first quarter of 2016 C REDIT CARD DELINQUENCY RATES Percent of credit card balances delinquent 14 — Toledo — Ohio — United States — Nearby metro average 12 10 8 6 ■ Recession 4 The metro area’s credit card delinquency rate fell 0.3 percentage points in the first quarter of 2016, the tenth consecutive quarter this measure of financial distress has declined. After rising in the second half of 2015, credit card delinquency rates ticked down in the United States, Ohio, and nearby metros in the first quarter of 2016. At 6.8 percent, Toledo’s latest credit card delinquency rate is 0.9 percentage points below the United States’ and 0.1 percentage points below Ohio’s. 2 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: Authors’ calculations from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of CLEVELAND TOLEDO, OHIO MSA FOURTH DISTRICT METRO MIX YOUR DISTRICT, YOUR DATA JULY 2016 HOUSING MARKET From April 2015 to April 2016, Toledo’s median home price growth tracked the state trend HOUSING PRICES Year-over-year percent change Home prices have continued to rise in the Toledo metro area. Between April 2015 and April 2016, the median home price rose $2,400 to $98,800. This is a 2.5 percent increase, which is comparable to the 2.7 percent increase in Ohio and about half of the nation’s increase of 4.9 percent over this period. The Toledo housing market is still working through a relatively large stock of foreclosed property, which limits price growth. 15 — Toledo — Ohio — United States — Nearby metro average 10 5 0 ■ Recession –5 –10 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: Zillow.com/Haver Analytics. Permitting activity in Toledo has yet to recover to its pre-recession level H OUSING PERMITS Index, 2007:M12=100, six-month moving average 350 — Toledo — Ohio — United States — Nearby metro Cincinnati average Average of nearby metros ■ Recession 300 250 200 150 100 United States 50 0 2006 Residential building permits have been relatively stable in Toledo since mid-2015, as they have been in Ohio and the United States. In the metro area, permits remained at about half their pre-recession level in May 2016, which is to be expected given the lingering problem of foreclosures in Toledo and the fact that the region lost population over this period. However, population loss appears to have slowed. The Toledo metro area lost an average of 1,521 people per year from 2006 through 2009. This average shrank to 656 people per year from 2010 through 2014. Ohio 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics. DEMOGRAPHICS AND EDUCATION Toledo Metro Area 2014 United States Change from 2009 2014 Change from 2009 606,781 –0.6% 318,857,000 +3.9% Adults with less than a high school diploma 9.8% –2.7% 13.1% –1.7% Adults with an undergraduate degree or higher 27.4% +5.3% 30.1% +2.2% 37.5 +0.1 years 37.7 +0.9 years $46,089 –4.6% $54,229 –3.2% Population Median age (years) Median household income TOLEDO, OHIO According to 2015 US Census Bureau estimates, Toledo remained the 91st largest of the 381 metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. The share of adults over 25 with an undergraduate degree is higher in the nation than the metro area, but from 2009 to 2014 it increased faster in the metro area. Source: US Census Bureau population estimates; American Community Survey. All monthly and quarterly figures are seasonally adjusted and all dollar figures are in current dollars, except home prices (which are left nominal). Where applicable, these adjustments are made prior to calculating percent changes or indexes. Several charts use indexed measures to facilitate comparisons across regions and have a reference line at 100. These numbers can be thought of as the percentages of pre-recession levels. If levels were growing before the recession, pre-recession indexes will be below 100; if levels were falling before the recession, pre-recession indexes will be above 100. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, including its branch offices in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, serves the Fourth Federal Reserve District (Ohio, western Pennsylvania, the northern panhandle of West Virginia, and eastern Kentucky). www. clevelandfed.org FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of CLEVELAND
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