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ERIE, PENNSYLVANIA MSA | SECOND QUARTER, 2014

Erie – Weak Employment, Strong Per Capita GDP Gains

Employment in the Erie metro area fell about 1 percent from mid-2012 to mid-2013, with most major industry segments experiencing employment declines during this
period. Recent year-over-year changes in home values have also been negative. However, per capita GDP rose roughly 5 percent in the Erie area from 2010 to 2012, far
outpacing increases in Pennsylvania (1.7 percent) and the US (1.3 percent) during the same period.
Erie’s unemployment rate has fallen to 6.4%
 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Percent
12

6

— Erie
— Pennsylvania
— United States
— Nearby metro
average

4

■ Recession

10
8

2
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

2010

2012

2014

As of February 2014, the Erie metro area’s unemployment rate
was 6.4 percent, about 0.3 percentage points below the national
average. After rising over much of 2012 and peaking at 8.1 percent
in January 2013, the area’s unemployment rate has since fallen 1.7
percent. While some of this is attributable to increases in the area’s
employment, more than 1 percentage point of this decline can be
traced to declines in the local labor force. One caveat: these estimates
are provisional, as revisions to the 2013 data will be released during
the second quarter of 2014.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics.

Per capita GDP gains far outpace increases in Pennsylvania and the US
 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

Index, 2007=100
102
100
98
96
94
92

— Erie
— Pennsylvania
— United States
— Nearby metro
average

90
88
86
84
2000

■ Recession

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

	Per capita GDP rose roughly 5 percent in the Erie metro area
from 2010 to 2012, far outpacing increases in Pennsylvania (1.7
percent) and the US (1.3 percent) over the same period. Despite
this somewhat sharp increase, Erie’s per capita GDP is still about 1.6
percent below where it was in 2007. That’s better than the US, where
per capita GDP remains roughly 3 percent below its pre-recession
level, but not as good as in Pennsylvania, which saw a much more
modest decline in its per capita GDP in recent years. The state
surpassed its 2007 per capita GDP in 2012.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics.

Home prices are nearly 5% higher than pre-recession levels
 HOUSING PRICES

Year-over-year percent change
15
10
5
0
–5
–10
–15
2005		2007		2009		2011		2013
Source: Zillow.com/Haver Analytics.

— Erie
— Pennsylvania
— United States
— Nearby metro
average
■ Recession

In recent years, national home prices have risen at fairly robust yearover-year rates, reversing some of the losses that began around 2007. As
of March 2014, for instance, home prices had risen about 5.7 percent
nationally from a year ago, according to Zillow. During the same period
in the Erie metro area, however, home prices rose just over 1 percent.
Nevertheless, prices in Erie are about 5 percent higher than they were in
early 2007, while US prices are still more than 13 percent lower.

ERIE, PENNSYLVANIA MSA

FOURTH DISTRICT METRO MIX
YOUR DISTRICT, YOUR DATA

SECOND QUARTER, 2014

EMPLOYMENT AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS

Erie’s employment has trended down

 EMPLOYMENT

Index, 2007: M12=100

After peaking in March 2012, Erie’s employment has since trended
down. Between March 2012 and June 2013, employment in
the metro fell about 1.5 percent. Over the same period, national
employment grew 1.9 percent. Earlier in the expansion, Erie’s
employment growth had notably outpaced national gains. From the
end of 2009 to the end of 2011, Erie’s employment grew about 3.9
percent, versus growth of just 2.4 percent in the US.

102

96

— Erie
— Pennsylvania
— United States
— Nearby metro
average

94

■ Recession

100
98

92
90
2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Most major industry sectors’ employment declined

 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR

	Most major industry segments experienced employment
declines in the Erie area from mid-2012 to mid-2013. This is in
contrast to the generally broad-based gains seen for the US as a
whole during this period. Exceptions include financial activities
and leisure and hospitality, which each saw modest increases
in employment in Erie. Manufacturing employment, which
accounts for about 18 percent of Erie’s total employment, was
essentially unchanged from June 2012 to June 2013.

Leisure and hospitality

— Erie
— Pennsylvania
— United States

Financial activities
Manufacturing
Construction
Trade, transportation, and
utilities
Government
Professional and business
services
Education and
health services
Information

		

-10

-8

-6

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

-4
-2
0
Percentage change

2

4

Since peaking in 2007, credit card delinquencies have trended down
14
— Erie
— Pennsylvania
— United States
— Nearby metro
average

12
10
8
6

■ Recession

4
2
2002

2004

2006

2008

CONSUMER FINANCES
	C REDIT CARD DELINQUENCY RATES

Percent of delinquent credit card balances

0
2000

6

2010

2012

During the last expansion, credit card delinquencies in the Erie
metro area were consistently higher than in the US, Pennsylvania,
or in nearby metro areas. This likely reflects the relatively
weak employment growth the area experienced during that
expansion—growth which wasn’t sufficient enough to recover
the jobs lost during the 2001 recession. Nevertheless, since
peaking in 2007, credit card delinquencies have trended down
in Erie and as of 2011, they were well below the national average
and approximately equal to the delinquency rate statewide.

Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Haver Analytics.

All monthly figures are seasonally adjusted and all dollar figures are in current dollars. Several charts use indexed measures to facilitate comparisons across regions and have a reference
line at 100. These numbers can be thought of as the percentages of pre-recession levels. If levels were growing before the recession, pre-recession indexes will be below 100; if levels
were falling before the recession, pre-recession indexes will be above 100. Employment data in the Metro Mix come from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which we
have found to be the earliest accurate source of the number of jobs in metro areas.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, including its branch offices in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, serves the Fourth Federal Reserve District (Ohio, western Pennsylvania, the northern
panhandle of West Virginia, and eastern Kentucky).

www. clevelandfed.org

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of CLEVELAND