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DAYTON, OHIO MSA | FIRST QUARTER, 2015

Dayton – Labor Market Lift-Off in 2014

The Dayton economy continues on the path of recovery, although at a slower pace relative to those of the state and nation. Strong manufacturing demand led by the
automotive and aerospace sectors have helped stimulate the economy, as have announced plans of international manufacturers bringing jobs to the area. The metro
area’s large healthcare sector continues to perform well as the region’s aging population makes increased use of area facilities.
Over the past year, Dayton’s unemployment rate declined significantly
 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Percent
14
— Dayton
— Ohio
— United States
— Nearby metro
average

12
10
8
6

■ Recession

4
2
0
2000 2002

2004 2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

According to the Bureau of Labor Statistics, the Dayton unemployment rate
declined significantly, from 7.1 to 5.4 percent, during the twelve months
ending in November of 2014. This is roughly comparable to the performance
of the state of Ohio, the United States, and other nearby metro areas. This
improvement is jointly due to falling labor force participation, as well as growth
in key sectors such as construction, professional and business services, and
education and healthcare. Further improvement in the region’s employment
is likely as auto and aerospace production continues to advance. The area’s
healthcare organizations are also still adding to the region’s growth as the metro
area’s already large portion of senior citizens continues to increase.

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics.

Dayton’s per capita GDP growth continues to lag national, state, and
nearby metro levels
Index, 2007=100
104
102
100
98
96
94
92
90
88
86
84
2001 2003

 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

	
Per capita GDP recovery remains a challenge as output growth has suffered
— Dayton
— Ohio
— United States
— Nearby metro
average
■ Recession

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

against widespread jobs losses during the recession and early recovery period.
Relative to its peak in 2005, per capita GDP has declined by 7.7 percent. The
area has slowly been recovering from the loss in output caused by the exit
of the GM manufacturing facility. The Chinese auto glass manufacturing
company Fuyao, which occupies the former GM plant, announced in January
2015 that it now plans to hire 1,550 workers and invest a total of $360 million
in the site. Additionally, demand in the region’s aerospace sector remains
strong as GE Aviation continues ramping up capital spending to address a
backlog of orders for aircraft engines.

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics.

In 2014, Dayton-area house prices rose 2.7%
 HOUSING PRICES

Year-over-year percent change
15
— Dayton
— Ohio
— United States
— Nearby metro
average

10
5
0

■ Recession
–5
–10

2006		2008		2010		2012		2014

Source: Zillow.com/Haver Analytics.

The Dayton housing market is clearly in a period of recovery, but it continues
to lag the performance of the nation, the state of Ohio, and nearby metro areas.
Though shadow inventories and foreclosure rates continue to decline, there are
still many distressed homes on the market (especially in the central city area)
making significant amounts of new construction unlikely, at least in the near term.
According to Zillow, house prices in the Dayton metro area were increasing at
an approximate rate of 2.7 percent per year at the end of 2014. House prices, in
general, rose throughout 2014 as employment levels increased in the area.

DAYTON, OHIO MSA

FOURTH DISTRICT METRO MIX
YOUR DISTRICT, YOUR DATA

FIRST QUARTER, 2015

EMPLOYMENT AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS

Employment in Dayton is substantially below pre-recession levels

 EMPLOYMENT

Index, 2007: M12=100

Despite some degree of recent recovery, employment in the Dayton metro
area remains substantially below its pre-recession level. Relative to the starting
month of the recession, employment in the Dayton area has declined by 5.9
percent. Since the recovery began to take hold in early 2010, employment has
increased by more than 3 percentage points, with some acceleration of that
rate occurring throughout 2014. Although improving, employment growth in
the Dayton area continues to lag that of the nation, state of Ohio, and nearby
metro areas. Auto and aerospace jobs account for the bulk of the employment
growth; however, the metro area’s market also benefits from other sectors
across the region such as healthcare and education.

104
— Dayton
— Ohio
— United States
— Nearby metro
average

102
100
98
96

■ Recession

94
92
90

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

Construction and professional and business services grew the most

 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR

	Dayton’s performance in key employment sectors such as professional and
business services, education and health services, leisure and hospitality, and
construction is improving, but lags the state and nation. In the professional and
business services sector, Dayton’s employment improved by 1.2 percentage
points for the twelve months ending in June 2014, while the nation’s rose by
approximately 2 percentage points. The construction sector has been a source
of strength, especially on the multifamily and commercial side, and increased
employment by 4 percent on a year-over-year basis. The professional and
business services sector increased in excess of 2 percent for a comparable
period. The healthcare sector will likely continue to be a source of strength as
capital spending on new facilities is expected.

Construction

— Dayton
— Ohio
— United States

Professional and business
services
Financial activities
Leisure and hospitality
Trade, transportation, and
utilities
Education and health services
Manufacturing
Government
Information

		

-6

-4

-2

0
2
Percentage change

4

6

8

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages.

DEMOGRAPHICS AND EDUCATION
Dayton metro area
			
		
2013
Population

United States

Change from		
2009
2013

Change from
2009

802,489

+0.4%

316,129,000

+3.1%

Adults with less than
a high school diploma

10.7%

–0.7%

13.4%

–1.3%

Adults with an undergraduate
degree or higher

26.6%

+1.9%

29.6%

+1.7%

39.1

+0.5 years

37.5

–0.7 years

$47,438

–4.0%

$52,666

–4.2%

Median age (years)
Median household income

 DAYTON, OHIO

	According to 2013 US Census Bureau estimates,
Dayton is the 71st largest of the 381 metropolitan
statistical areas in the United States.

Sources: Census Population estimates; American Community Survey.

All monthly figures are seasonally adjusted and all dollar figures are in current dollars. Several charts use indexed measures to facilitate comparisons across regions and have a reference
line at 100. These numbers can be thought of as the percentages of pre-recession levels. If levels were growing before the recession, pre-recession indexes will be below 100; if levels
were falling before the recession, pre-recession indexes will be above 100. Employment data in the Metro Mix come from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which we
have found to be the earliest accurate source of the number of jobs in metro areas.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, including its branch offices in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, serves the Fourth Federal Reserve District (Ohio, western Pennsylvania, the northern
panhandle of West Virginia, and eastern Kentucky).

www. clevelandfed.org

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of CLEVELAND