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COLUMBUS, OHIO MSA | JUNE 2017 Columbus—Local Labor Market Remains Robust The labor market in the Columbus metro area continues to be strong. In March, the area’s unemployment rate fell to its second-lowest level (3.9 percent) since the early 2000s. As of third quarter 2016, year-over-year employment in the metro area expanded by 2.2 percent—twice as strong as Ohio’s rate of employment growth during the same period. The issuance of residential building permits improved in 2016 and has been strong through the first three months of 2017, while home prices rose roughly 5 percent in the area in March on a year-over-year basis. Finally, the metro area’s income and GDP growth accelerated in 2015. METRO AREA SNAPSHOT Unemployment Rate Median Home Value March 2017 One-year change (percent) (percentage points) Columbus 3.9 –0.3 $161,700 Ohio 5.1 0.1 United States 4.5 –0.5 Payroll Employment Credit Card Delinquency Rate One-year change September 2016 One-year change 2016:Q4 One-year change (percent) (thousands) (percent) (percent) (percentage points) 4.8 1,004 2.2 6.4 –0.1 $126,200 5.4 5,330 1.1 6.7 –0.3 $196,500 6.8 142,452 1.8 7.1 –0.7 March 2017 In March, the Columbus metro area’s unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent. hUNEMPLOYMENT RATE Percent 12 8 — Columbus — Ohio — United States 6 ■ Recession 10 4 2 0 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 The Columbus area’s unemployment rate has been hovering around 4 percent since early 2015. In March, it fell to its second-lowest level (3.9 percent) since the early 2000s. Among the 50 largest American metro areas (by labor force), Columbus’s low rate put it among the best-performing third of this group. Its unemployment rate in March was 1.2 percentage points lower than the statewide average and 0.6 percentage points lower than the national average. Up to this point in the recovery, the average monthly difference between the Columbus area’s unemployment rate and that of Ohio or the United States has been almost a full percentage point. 2017 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics. The Columbus metro area’s real per capita GDP grew 4.4 percent in 2015. hGROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT Index, 2007=100 110 105 — Columbus — Ohio — United States 100 ■ Recession 95 90 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics. 2016 The Columbus area’s real per capita GDP grew 4.4 percent in 2015 (the latest available data). That’s considerably stronger than in the preceding two years, when real per capita GDP growth in the area was 0.8 percent in 2013 and 1.5 percent in 2014. The area’s 2015 real per capita GDP growth also exceeded the growth rates in the state and in the nation, which were 2.5 percent and 2.9 percent, respectively. In the Columbus metro area, 2015 per capita GDP levels were approximately 5 percent higher than were the metro area’s per capita GDP levels in 2007. Statewide, 2015 per capita GDP levels were almost 7 percent higher than statewide levels in 2007, but nationally, 2015 per capita GDP levels were only about 2.5 percent higher than 2007 levels. (2016 data for Ohio and the United States show continued per capita GDP growth.) COLUMBUS, OHIO MSA FOURTH DISTRICT METRO MIX YOUR DISTRICT, YOUR DATA JUNE 2017 Employment expanded by 2.2 percent in the Columbus metro area from September 2015 to September 2016. hEMPLOYMENT Index, 2007: M12=100 110 105 — Columbus — Ohio — United States 100 ■ Recession In the 12 months through September 2016, Columbus-area employment expanded by 2.2 percent. This gain was twice as strong as the state’s (1.1 percent) and slightly stronger than the gain experienced nationally during the same period (1.8 percent). Over the entire expansion (which began in June 2009), the Columbus metro area’s employment has grown at an annualized rate of 1.8 percent—again, this pace is stronger than that of the state (1.1 percent) or the nation (1.5 percent). Partly as a consequence, the level of employment in the area is about 8 percent higher than it was in December 2007 (when the last expansion ended), whereas it is about half a percent higher statewide and 5 percent higher nationally. 95 90 2006 2008 EMPLOYMENT AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS 2010 2012 2014 2016 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. About half of the major industries in the Columbus metro area saw stronger employment growth rates than those same industries did nationally. While about half of the major industries in the Columbus metro area saw stronger employment growth rates than those same industries did nationally, about half also experienced weaker employment growth. Specifically, the Columbus area saw stronger employment growth in government; construction; financial activities; and trade, transportation, and utilities. However, the metro area experienced weaker employment growth in information, leisure and hospitality, manufacturing, and professional and business services. Relative to the state, the Columbus metro area saw stronger employment gains in most industries; the exceptions were information and manufacturing. Construction Government Education and health services Financial activities Leisure and hospitality — Columbus — Ohio — United States Professional and business services hEMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR Trade, transportation, and utilities Information Manufacturing –2 0 2 Percent change 4 6 Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. Nearly all major industry categories contributed positively to the Columbus metro area’s recent employment gains. Employment 12-month change Share of employment Trade, transportation, and utilities 190,861 3,061 19.0 Professional and business services 172,460 3,160 17.2 Government 154,978 5,141 15.4 Education and health services 149,310 4,108 14.9 Leisure and hospitality 106,305 2,034 10.6 Financial activities 72,773 1,869 7.2 Manufacturing 70,916 -554 7.1 Construction 37,215 1,947 3.7 Information 15,741 -38 1.6 Sector Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics’ Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of CLEVELAND hSECTOR EMPLOYMENT Nearly all major industry categories contributed positively to the Columbus metro area’s employment gains during the year that ended in September 2016. The exceptions to this were information and manufacturing, with the latter accounting for a substantially greater share of these employment losses. Government was among the largest contributors to the area’s employment gain, accounting for almost a quarter of its increase in employment. Other major contributors included education and health services; professional and business services; and trade, transportation, and utilities. Collectively, these three industry groups accounted for almost half of the area’s employment gains during this period. COLUMBUS, OHIO MSA FOURTH DISTRICT METRO MIX YOUR DISTRICT, YOUR DATA JUNE 2017 INCOME Inflation-adjusted income per capita grew about 3.6 percent in the Columbus metro area in 2015. hI NCOME PER CAPITA Thousands of dollars 50 46 — Columbus — Ohio — United States 44 ■ Recession 48 42 40 38 2007 2009 2011 2013 Inflation-adjusted income per capita grew about 3.6 percent in the Columbus metro area in 2015, similar to the growth rates registered statewide (3.3 percent) and nationally (3.6 percent). Growth in 2015 constituted an acceleration from that of the prior two years, when the area’s per capita income increased 1.4 percent in 2014 and decreased 0.8 percent in 2013. Since mid-2009 when the expansion began, inflation-adjusted income per capita in the area has grown about 1.9 percent at an annual rate, slightly stronger than the 1.7 percent increase seen statewide and nationally. 2015 Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics. CONSUMER FINANCES Per capita consumer debt levels have stabilized in the metro area, the state, and the nation since the middle of 2014. hC ONSUMER DEBT Thousands of dollars 55 50 — Columbus — Ohio — United States 45 40 ■ Recession 35 30 25 20 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 Per capita consumer debt levels have stabilized in the Columbus metro area, the state, and the nation since the middle of 2014. In the 2.5 years since then, annualized increases in debt levels amounted to 0.3 percent for the metro area, 0.1 percent for Ohio, and 0.2 percent for the United States. Prior to this, per capita consumer debt levels peaked in the metro area and in the state in the final quarter of 2008 and in the nation a quarter later. Between the end of 2008 and the middle of 2014, debt levels fell at fairly similar rates across the three geographies, declining an annualized 4.3 percent in the metro area and an annualized 4.6 percent statewide and nationally. Source: Authors’ calculations from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax. Since the end of 2014, the Columbus metro area’s delinquency rate has fallen from 6.7 percent to 6.4 percent. hC REDIT CARD DELINQUENCY RATES Percent of credit card balances delinquent 14 12 — Columbus — Ohio — United States 10 8 ■ Recession 6 4 2 0 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 Credit card delinquency rates have remained relatively stable in the Columbus area since the end of 2014. In the two years since, the area’s delinquency rate has fallen from 6.7 percent to 6.4 percent. In the prior 10 years, the metro area’s credit card delinquency rates were consistently below both the statewide and national averages. These rates peaked across all three areas in late 2010. At the time, the metro area’s delinquency rate was more than 1 percentage point below the statewide average and more than 4 percentage points below the national average. 2016 Source: Authors’ calculations from the Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s Consumer Credit Panel/Equifax. FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of CLEVELAND COLUMBUS, OHIO MSA FOURTH DISTRICT METRO MIX YOUR DISTRICT, YOUR DATA JUNE 2017 HOUSING MARKET Home prices have risen roughly 5 percent in the Columbus metro area from March 2016 to March 2017. hHOUSING PRICES Year-over-year percent change In the 12 months through March 2017, home prices rose roughly 5 percent in the Columbus metro area. This gain was weaker than the gains posted over the same period statewide (5.4 percent) or nationally (6.8 percent). Nevertheless, the increase in the most recent 12 months for which we have data is consistent with the area’s annualized home price increases since 2013 (5.1 percent). During this more-than-fouryear period, Columbus outperformed Ohio—which had annualized home-price gains of 3.8 percent—but had weaker home-price appreciation than the United States, which posted annualized price increases of 5.7 percent. 15 — Columbus — Ohio — United States 10 5 ■ Recession 0 –5 –10 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: Zillow.com/Haver Analytics. Permit issuance in the Columbus metro area increased sharply in January 2017. hH OUSING PERMITS Index, 2007: M12=100, six-month moving average 220 Average monthly permit issuance in the Columbus metro area rose in 2016. Monthly issuance averaged approximately 600 in 2014 and 2015 but was more than 5 percent higher in 2016. Permit issuance increased sharply in January 2017 and was almost 3 times higher than in the prior January. Partly as a consequence, average monthly permit issuance for the first quarter of 2017 was well above average monthly issuance in 2016—905 permits versus 641. — Columbus — Ohio — United States 180 140 ■ Cincinnati Recession Average of nearby metros 100 United States 60 Ohio 20 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 Source: US Census Bureau/Haver Analytics. DEMOGRAPHICS AND EDUCATION Columbus Metro Area 2015 Population 2,020,144 United States hCOLUMBUS, OHIO Change from 2009 2015 Change from 2009 +7.0% 320,897,000 +4.6% Adults with less than a high school diploma (percent) 9.1 –1.1 12.9 –1.9 Adults with an undergraduate degree or higher (percent) 35.1 1.8 30.6 2.7 Median age (years) 35.9 1.2 37.8 1 $60,035 +3.7% $57,542 +0.5% Median household income According to 2015 US Census Bureau estimates, Columbus, Ohio, ranks as the 33rd largest of the 381 metropolitan statistical areas in the United States. Sources: US Census Bureau population estimates; American Community Survey. All monthly and quarterly figures are seasonally adjusted, and all dollar figures are in current dollars except home prices (which are left nominal). Where applicable, these adjustments are made prior to calculating percent changes or indexes. Several charts use indexed measures to facilitate comparisons across regions and have a reference line at 100. These numbers can be thought of as the percentages of pre-recession levels. If levels were growing before the recession, pre-recession indexes will be below 100; if levels were falling before the recession, pre-recession indexes will be above 100. The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, including its branch offices in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, serves the Fourth Federal Reserve District (Ohio, western Pennsylvania, the northern panhandle of West Virginia, and eastern Kentucky). www. clevelandfed.org FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of CLEVELAND
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