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CLEVELAND, OHIO MSA | THIRD QUARTER, 2014

Cleveland – Further Improvement

Though growth continues to be slower than national and statewide advances, the Cleveland metro area’s economy has strengthened in the first half of 2014. The housing market
has particularly improved, with both house prices and building permits increasing. The metro area has also experienced a sharp decline in unemployment and modest increases
in job numbers and average weekly wages. The latest data shows that 28.5 percent of adults in Cleveland have a bachelor’s degree, bringing the metro area up to the nation’s rate.
The Cleveland metro area’s unemployment rate has dropped to 6.8%
in 2014
 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE

Percent
12

6

— Cleveland
— Ohio
— United States
— Nearby metro
average

4

■ Recession

10
8

During the recession, unemployment increased far less in the
Cleveland metro area than in the nation, state, and the average of
nearby metro areas. After slightly increasing in 2013, the metro’s
unemployment rate has dropped sharply in 2014 (from 7.5 percent
in December 2013 to 6.8 percent in May 2014). The nation, state,
and nearby metro areas experienced similar declines.

2
0
2000 2002 2004 2006 2008

2010

2012

2014

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics.

GDP per capita growth continues
 GROSS DOMESTIC PRODUCT

Index, 2007=100
105
— Cleveland
— Ohio
— United States
— Nearby metro
average

100
95
90

■ Recession

85
80

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

The metro area’s GDP per capita grew steadily in 2010, 2011, and
2012; it was just under pre-recession levels in 2012 (the latest
period for which data is available). Ohio and nearby metro areas
had similar growth rates, but the nation remained about 3 percent
below pre-recession levels. The metro area’s robust growth in GDP
per capita is due to strong export growth, continued population
loss, and the recovery of manufacturing output.

2013

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics.

Housing prices in Cleveland have improved in 2014, but still lag increases
in the nation, Ohio, and nearby metro areas
 HOUSING PRICES

Year-over-year percent change
15
10
5
0
–5
–10
–15
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Source: Zillow.com/Haver Analytics.

— Cleveland
— Ohio
— United States
— Nearby metro
average
■ Recession

The population loss that helped increase GDP per capita has limited the
rise in house prices because demand for housing is strongly linked to
population growth. While the metro area’s house prices have risen since
December 2012, increases in the nation, the state, and nearby metros
were earlier and stronger. In June 2014, Ohio’s year-over-year percent
gain in house prices was double Cleveland’s. While the rate of growth
has slowed nationally in 2014, the state, Cleveland, and nearby metros
are seeing continued increases in the growth rates of house prices.

CLEVELAND, OHIO MSA

FOURTH DISTRICT METRO MIX
YOUR DISTRICT, YOUR DATA

THIRD QUARTER, 2014

EMPLOYMENT AND INDUSTRIAL SECTORS
Cleveland’s employment recovery from the Great Recession is stronger than
its recovery from the 2001 recession
 EMPLOYMENT

Index, 2007: M12=100

The Cleveland metro area’s employment recovery from the 2007–2009
recession continues to be stronger than its recovery from the 2001
recession. The metro area saw fairly steady employment growth in
both 2012 and 2013. Over that time, Cleveland’s employment growth
was a little behind Ohio’s, but ahead of advances in nearby metro areas.
While the nation had faster employment growth than the Cleveland
metro area in both years, the difference is not as great as was typical in
the years leading up to the recession.

102

96

— Cleveland
— Ohio
— United States
— Nearby metro
average

94

■ Recession

100
98

92
90
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

Manufacturing growth in the metro area remains stalled

 EMPLOYMENT GROWTH BY SECTOR

The Cleveland metro area is home to seven Fortune 500
companies and its economy has grown more diverse since 2000.
In both the Cleveland area and Ohio, the sector with the largest
percent gain in employment from December 2012 to December
2013 was professional and business services, which grew 2.4
percent in the metro. In all sectors except government, Cleveland
saw less growth than the state or nation. Given its continued
importance to the metro area’s economy, it is troubling that
manufacturing employment was flat in Cleveland while growing
modestly in the state and nation.

Professional and business
services
Leisure and hospitality
Construction
Education and health
services
Government

— Cleveland
— Ohio
— United States

Trade, transportation, and
utilities
Information
Manufacturing
Financial activities

		
–2
–1
		
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.

0

1
2
3
Percentage change

4

5

Two major sectors saw more than a 1% gain in employment since June 2013

 RELATIVE EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

	While only two sectors—professional and business
services and leisure and hospitality—saw more than
a 1 percent gain in employment in 2013, they are
significant sectors that account for 24 percent of the
metro area’s employment. Seventy percent of the region’s
employment is in sectors that gained or lost less than
0.5 percent of their employment in 2013. The only
sector that lost more than 0.5 percent of its employment
last year, financial services, held 6 percent of the metro’s
employment.

Increasing
employment growth

Percent
3.0
2.5

Professional and
business services

Leisure and hospitality

2.0
1.5
1.0
0.5

Education and
health services

Construction
Information

Government

0

Manufacturing

–0.5

Trade, transportation,
and utilities

Larger
share of
metro’s overall
employment

Financial activities

–1.0
–1.5

0

2

4

6

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics.
FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of CLEVELAND

8

10
12
Percent

14

16

18

20

CLEVELAND, OHIO MSA

FOURTH DISTRICT METRO MIX
YOUR DISTRICT, YOUR DATA

THIRD QUARTER, 2014

HOUSING MARKET
The number of permits issued for new single-family homes in Cleveland
has increased in 2014
	H OUSING PERMITS

Index, 2007: M12=100, three-month moving average
350
— Cleveland
— Ohio
— United States
— Nearby metro
Cincinnati
average
Average of
■ nearby
Recessionmetros

300
250
200
150
100

United States

50
0
		

Ohio
2006		 2008		 2010		 2012		2014

Source: Census Bureau/Haver Analytics.

During the first half of 2014, the seasonally-adjusted number of
permits issued for new single-family homes declined slightly in the
country, but increased in the Cleveland metro area, the state, and
nearby metro areas. However, homebuilding is still well below its
pre-recession levels in the Cleveland metro area, as well as in the
state and nation. This is not surprising as there was an oversupply of
new housing going into the recession. What is surprising is that, on
average, metro areas within 200 miles of Cleveland have 20 percent
more housing permits issued than before the recession. This growth
is driven by the Pittsburgh and Columbus metro areas.

CONSUMER FINANCES
Cleveland’s rate of decline in consumer debt is in line with that of Ohio
	C ONSUMER DEBT

Thousands of dollars
55
— Cleveland
— Ohio
— United States
— Nearby metro
average

50
45
40
35

■ Recession

30
25
20

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel.

Consumer debt per capita grew more slowly in the Cleveland
metro area than the national average from 2003 to 2007, primarily
because house prices rose faster in other parts of the nation. The
sharp drop in house prices that accompanied the recession, along
with increases in foreclosures and reductions in homeownership
have reduced mortgage debt since 2007. The rate of decline in
consumer debt has been roughly the same in the Cleveland metro
as in Ohio, nearby metros, and the nation. One would expect
the nation to have the largest declines in consumer debt because
its house prices fell more, but this effect may be offset by higher
foreclosure rates in Ohio and its metro areas.

Credit card delinquency rates remain below pre-recession levels in the
Cleveland metro area
	C REDIT CARD DELINQUENCY RATES

Percent of credit card balances delinquent
14
— Cleveland
— Ohio
— United States
— Nearby metro
average

12
10
8
6

■ Recession

4
2
0

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

After rising steadily from 2005 to 2010, the Cleveland metro
area’s credit card delinquency rates fell in 2011 and remain below
pre-recession levels. The improvement probably results from the
general economic recovery and from lenders’ restriction of access
to credit. The nation saw a much sharper increase in credit card
delinquency during the recession, a sign that the recession was
more severe nationally than in the metro area.

2013

Source: FRBNY Consumer Credit Panel/Haver Analytics.

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of CLEVELAND

CLEVELAND, OHIO MSA

FOURTH DISTRICT METRO MIX
YOUR DISTRICT, YOUR DATA

THIRD QUARTER, 2014

INCOME

Average weekly wages of people employed in the Cleveland metro area
are $818
Dollars, three-month moving average

	A VERAGE WEEKLY EARNINGS

900

After declining sharply during the recession, average weekly wages
have tended to rise in the Cleveland metro area since the beginning
of 2012. Over that time, weekly wages have been essentially flat in
the nation and nearby metro areas. Ohio has seen moderate declines
in average weekly wages since the start of 2013. In June 2014, the
average weekly wages of people employed in the Cleveland metro
area were $818. This value is $25 less than the national average and
$56 more than the state’s.

— Cleveland
— Ohio
— United States
— Nearby metro
average

850
800
750

■ Recession

700
650
600
2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics/Haver Analytics.

Cleveland’s per capita income exceeds that of the nation, state, and
the nearby metro average
	I NCOME PER CAPITA

Thousands of dollars
48
46

The Cleveland metro area remains a very productive region.
Its per capita income exceeds that of the nation, state, and the
average of nearby metro areas. Although all four geographic areas
experienced similar declines in income per capita from 2007 to
2009, Cleveland’s grew fastest from 2009 to 2012. The metro area’s
income per capita was $1,055 above the nation’s in 2012, the largest
gap between the two since 2003.

— Cleveland
— Ohio
— United States
— Nearby metro
average

44
42
40

■ Recession

38
36

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis/Haver Analytics.

DEMOGRAPHICS AND EDUCATION
Cleveland metro area
			
		
2012
Population

United States

Change from		
2009
2012

Change from
2009

2,063,535

-0.8%

313,914,000

+2.3%

Adults with less than
a high school diploma

11.5%

-0.8%

14.1%

-0.7%

Adults with an undergraduate
degree or higher

28.5%

+1.6%

28.5%

+0.6%

41.2

+1.0 years

37.4

+0.6 years

$48,733

-3.4%

$53,329

-4.4%

Median age (years)
Median household income

 CLEVELAND, OHIO

According to 2012 Census estimates, Cleveland
is the 29th largest of the nation’s 381 metropolitan
statistical areas.

Sources: Census Population estimates; American Community Survey.

All monthly figures are seasonally adjusted and all dollar figures are in current dollars. Several charts use indexed measures to facilitate comparisons across regions and have a reference
line at 100. These numbers can be thought of as the percentages of pre-recession levels. If levels were growing before the recession, pre-recession indexes will be below 100; if levels
were falling before the recession, pre-recession indexes will be above 100. Employment data in the Metro Mix come from the Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages, which we
have found to be the earliest accurate source of the number of jobs in metro areas.
The Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, including its branch offices in Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, serves the Fourth Federal Reserve District (Ohio, western Pennsylvania, the northern
panhandle of West Virginia, and eastern Kentucky).

www. clevelandfed.org

FEDERAL RESERVE BANK of CLEVELAND