Full text of Methodology for Projections of Industry Employment to 1990 : Bulletin of the United States Bureau of Labor Statistics, No. 2036

The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.

^

v

^

< £ c ? 3 C>

;

Methodology for Projections
of Industry Employment to 1990
J.S. Department of Labor
3ureau of Labor Statistics
rebruary 1980
Bulletin 2036







Library of Congress Cataloging in Publication Data
United States. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Methodology for projections of industry employment
to 1990.
(Bulletin - Bureau of Labor Statistics ; 2036 )
Written by Thomas Fleming and Richard Oliver.
Bibliography: p.
Supt. of Docs, no.: L 2.3:2036
1. Employment forecasting— -United States. 2. Eco­
nomic forecasting— -United States. I. Fleming, Thomas F.
II. Oliver, Richard P. III. Title. IV. Series:
United States. Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Bulletin ; 2036.
79-607923
HD572U.U625 1980
33I.11 ’0973

Methodology for Projections
of Industry Employment to 1990
U.S. Department of Labor
Ray Marshall, Secretary
Bureau of Labor Statistics
Janet L. Norwood, Commissioner
February 1980
Bulletin 2036







Preface

This bulletin presents a description of the Bureau of
Labor Statistics (BLS) Economic Growth model sys­
tem used to develop the 1990 industry employment pro­
jections. It is intended primarily for those analysts who
desire detailed information on the BLS projections
methods, models, and techniques. The text covers the
components of the Economic Growth system used to
develop these projections and the sequence of their ap­
plication. The appendixes provide the detailed equa­
tions used in the various model systems as well as a
description of the software solution package.
The results of the 1990 projections were presented
in three articles published in the Monthly Labor Review:
“The U.S. Economy to 1990: Two Projections for
Growth,” December 1978, by Norman Saunders;
“Changing Patterns of Demand: BLS Projections to
1990,” December 1978, by Authur Andreassen; and
“Output and Employment by Industry; Projections to
1990,” April 1978, by Valerie Personick.
These articles covered the results and analytical
aspects of the macroeconomic scenarios, the demand
projections, and the industry output and employment
estimates. Industry employment projections are primar­
ily used within the Bureau as a basis for the occupa­
tional projections developed by the Occupational Out­
look program. These are used by the Department of




Labor and a variety of other groups in planning train­
ing programs and in counseling students and workers.
The industry projections also are used by business firms
as a source of information in developing long-range
capital investment programs and in anticipating changes
in the structure of markets.
This bulletin was prepared in the Office of Econom­
ic Growth, under the supervision of Ronald E. Kutscher, Assistant Commissioner for Economic Growth.
The report was written by Thomas Fleming and Rich­
ard Oliver. Norman Saunders contributed the method­
ology on the macroeconomic projections. Material on
the techniques of projecting interindustry coefficients
was provided by Joanne Hepburn and Tom Mooney.
Methodologies used in projecting the major final de­
mand sectors were provided by Arthur Andreassen,
Robert Sylvester, Karen Horowitz, and David Frank.
Valerie Personick developed the estimates of industry
employment. John Tschetter provided the section on
prospective areas of new development. Sandy Proctor
assisted in the preparation of the manuscript.
Material in this publication is in the public domain
and may be reproduced without permission of the Fed­
eral Government. Please credit the Bureau of Labor
Statistics and cite Methodology for Projections of Indus­
try Employment to 1990, Bulletin 2036.

in

Contents

Page
Chapter 1. Overview of the BLS projections system ..................................................................
Earlier versions....................................................................................................................
Current methodology ........................................................................................................

1
1
2

Chapter 2. Aggregate economic projections ..............................................................................
Overview .............................................................................................................................
Assumptions of the macro projections ................................................................................
Supply GNP .......................................................................................................................
Income flo w s .......................................................................................................................
Demand GNP ....................................................................................................................
Price/wage s e c to r .................................................................................................................
Balancing the macro model ...............................................................................................
Solving the macro m o d e l.....................................................................................................

5
5
5
7
8
9
10
10
10

Chapter 3. Final demand projections.........................................................................................
Overview .............................................................................................................................
Assumptions .......................................................................................................................
Personal consumption expenditures ....................................................................................
Gross private domestic investment ......................................................................................
Net exports .......................................................................................................................
State and local government ...............................................................................................
Federal Government ............................................................................................

11
11
11
12
13
15
18
19

Chapter 4. Intermediate demand projections ........................................................................... 21
Industry classification .........................................
21
Industry conventions of input-output ................................................................................. 21
Valuation of transactions .................................................................................................. 22
Secondary product transfers ............................................................................................... 22
BLS input-output system .................................................................................................. 23
Projecting coefficients ........................................................................................................ 24
Chapter 5. Employment projections.........................................................................................
Output per hour .................................................................................................................
Average weekly hours ........................................................................................................
Industry employment ........................................................................................................

26
26
27
27

Chapter 6. Planned changes in the projections system ............................................................... 28
Macro model ....................................................................................................................... 28
Factor demand in industry detail ...................................................................................... 28
Macro and micro relationships ............................................................................................ 29
Appendixes:
A. Macroeconomic model equations, identities, and variables..........................................
B. Potential economic growth assessment system for the
United States (PEGASUS)......................................................................................
C. Personal consumption model equations .....................................................................
D. Investment-output r a tio s ............................................................................................
E.
Federal Government equations ................................
F.
Labor demand coefficients.........................................................................................
G. Economic Growth sectoring plan ..............................................................................
H. Data sources ..............................................................................................................




iv

30
41
42
57
60
61
69
72

Chapter 1. Overview of the
BLS Projections System

The 1990 industry employment projections are the
latest in a series that started in the mid-1960’s as the
product of an interagency project to study the condi­
tions and requirements for balanced economic growth
in the United States. Since that time, projections stud­
ies have been completed for 1970, 1975, 1980, 1985, and
1990.' While the general approach has been similar for
each of these studies, the methodology has been con­
tinually modified to include greater industrial detail,
more rigorous analytical techniques, and a more auto­
matic system for processing calculations. Since that
time, the interagency character of the projections has
also changed. Although certain data and assumptions
are still coordinated with other agencies, the projec­
tions have become more a BLS responsibility.

nomic model for the purpose of projecting more bal­
anced and consistent demand levels. The macro mod­
el’s key function was to develop estimates of the distri­
bution of demand GNP in real terms for the major de­
mand categories. In addition, this model added other
analytical features. Among these were the capability to
be more explicit about fiscal policy assumptions, to ex­
amine the factors influencing the derivation of income
projections at a macro level, and to derive projected
revenues of the Federal and State and local government
sectors. It also permitted the development of a time
path for the projections and not just the projection of
a point in the future. The macro model provided an
aggregate production function which could be used to
project supply GNP from both labor and capital inputs.
However, in its early use of this model, BLS continued
to use the procedures of the first version to project
supply GNP. Initially, the aggregate production func­
tion overpredicted potential growth, in part because of
its inability to account for shifts between the agricul­
tural and nonagricultural sectors of the economy.
Another change in the second version of the system
was the addition of a very crude capital component
which evaluated an initial final demand vector for in­
vestment in equipment and nonresidential structures in
total and by type. This process involved using: (1) In­
vestment-output relationships, (2) capital flows tables,
and (3) projected changes in industry outputs. Capital
flows tables convert investment by purchasing industry
into investment by type of capital good. While this pro­
vided a crude check on the amount and type of capital
required in each industry based on its projected rate of
growth, it was simplistic. Investment in each industry
was then determined only by the growth in its output
with no consideration of capital replacement
requirements.

Earlier versions

The first version of the Economic Growth model
system was formulated in 1963 for the 1970 projections.
This version represented a conventional application of
the input-output technique and was used for both the
1970 projections and the first set of 1980 projections.
In this version, supply GNP (gross n .ti< nal product)
was first projected exogenously based up un independ­
ent projections of aggregate labor force, hours, and
productivity. Several distributions of demand GNP
were then developed through a combina;ion of trend
analysis and assumption. In the next stage, analysts pro­
jected industry purchases for major c; te »ories of de­
mand GNP. A model was used in only one case to as­
sist in the projection of the bill of gocds. This was a
consumption demand model developed by H. S.
Houthakker and L. D. Taylor discussed in the follow­
ing text. Simultaneously, the coefficients of an inputoutput table were projected. The table used was the
Bureau of Economic Analysis’ (BEA) 1958 table of 82
sectors. This table was updated and then projected to
1970 and later to 1980. The projected bills of goods
were used with the projected tables to develop esti­
mates of gross output by industry. Employment esti­
mates for each industry were then developed from pro­
jected employment-output ratios. These were based
upon industry projections of hours and productivity.
A second version of the system was used for the 1975
projections and a second set of 1980 projections. The
principal change was the introduction of a macroeco­



' ’’Revised BLS Projections to 1980 and 1985,” Monthly Labor Re­
view, Mar., Aug., and Nov. 1978; and the following Bureau o f Labor
Statistics bulletins, The Structure o f the U.S. Economy in 1980 and
1985, Bulletin 1831, (1975); The U.S. Economy in 1985, Bulletin 1809,
(1974); Projections o f the Post-Vietnam Economy, 1975, Bulletin 1733,
(1972); The U.S. Economy in 1980, Bulletin 1673, (1970); Patterns o f
U.S. Economic Growth, Bulletin 1672, (1970); and Projections 1970:
Interindustry Relationships, Potential Demand, and Employment, Bul­
letin 1536 (1966).

1

The second version of the Economic Growth Sys­
tem, as in the first, had a limited feedback from the
micro or industry level to the macro level. This feed­
back was not directly modeled. It generally took the
forms of balancing the industry employment estimates
with total employment, reviewing the initial stipulation
of investment requirements against the generated in­
vestment level, and comparing the industry structure
of generated imports with the macro stipulation.
The input-output tables used in the second version
were based upon the BEA’s 1963 table aggregated to
134 sectors. This base was updated by BLS to 1970 and
then projected to future years. The third version of the
Economic Growth system described in this bulletin was
based upon the BEA’s 1967 table aggregated to 162 in­
dustry sectors. This table was updated to 1973 and then
projected to 1980, 1985, and 1990.
In the third, or current version, a major change was
made in the production function of the macro model
to cover only the private nonfarm economy rather than
the total private economy to capture shifts between the
farm and nonfarm sectors. An equation was also added
to the model to project hours. Also, a small price-wage
sector was introduced. Two new final demand models
were included for the first time: One for State and lo­
cal government purchases and the other covering Fed­
eral Government revenue and outlays. While not fully
integrated in the system, these were used in a limited
manner. In addition, a labor demand model was intro­
duced to replace the ad hoc procedures used in the ear­
lier versions to project industry productivity.

Industry projections start with a set of assumptions,
or a scenario, describing the expected conditions of
growth. Various policy targets and other assumptions
are formulated and fed into a macroeconometric mod­
el, along with base period data. This model uses these
assumptions to develop consistent projections of supply
or potential GNP growth and the resulting income
flows. Income flows are next used by the model in pro­
jecting demand GNP by major components. Supply and
demand GNP are balanced, providing control totals for
the purchases of various final demand sectors which
are consistent with all conditions and assumptions. The
industry employment projections usually assume that
government goals for reduced unemployment, control
of inflation, and a more favorable trade balance will
generally be achieved or approximated. Policy varia­
bles and exogenous demand levels are adjusted to per­
mit the economy to achieve potential levels of output
consistent with these goals.
Control totals for each of the categories of demand
GNP developed in the macro model are then used with
various techniques and submodels to distribute sector
demand to functional categories of demand or product
groups. For example, personal consumption expendi­
tures for nondurable goods are distributed to various
product groups, such as food purchased for use at home,
while investment in producers’ durable equipment is
distributed by purchasing industry.
The next step is to distribute the functional or prod­
uct level demand in each sector to specific purchases
of goods and services produced by 162 different indus­
tries using projected factors or bridge tables. This in­
dustry classification is consistent with the interindustry
models used to project intermediate demand. The co­
efficients of the input-output models are projected sep­
arately based upon such things as expected changes in
technology, shifts in inputs, and changes in the mix of
products. They provide the framework for estimating
the purchases each industry must make to support its
projected sales. The projected interindustry tables, or
matrices, provide estimates of the projected output
needed from each industry for all final and intermedi­
ate demand requirements. At this stage, each industry’s
output level is evaluated for projected changes in total
output and the share going to final and intermediate
sales. Where annual rates of change in output or the
distribution of intermediate and final demand vary sig­
nificantly from past experience, the analytical reasons
are reexamined. As a result, changes may be made in
final demand purchases or coefficients.
The projections sequence then proceeds to estima­
ting industry employment requirements. A labor de­
mand model is used to project productivity changes in
each industry. Industry output requirements are then
converted to industry employment requirements. Final­
ly, the industry employment changes are compared to
historical change. If the growth in employment appears

Current methodology

BLS industry employment projections currently are
produced using a variety of models and analytical meth­
ods. There are five major steps in projecting industry
employment levels: 1) A macro model projection of the
aggregate economy; 2) a disaggregation of GNP to de­
tailed demand categories; 3) a distribution of each de­
mand category to producing industries; 4) projection
of an input-output table and its use in solving for in­
dustry outputs; and 5) a projection of productivity,
hours, and employment at the industry level of detail.
Some portions of each step are independent of the
other steps, but, in general, each step is also dependent
to some degree upon the step prior to it. The current
approach allows for only limited conceptual or com­
puterized feedbacks from a later step to an earlier one.
However, results at certain stages are compared ana­
lytically with earlier controls, and adjustments are made.
Linkage of the various steps is accomplished with a
software package known as the Potential Economic
Growth Assessment System for the United States
(PEGASUS). This software system is described in ap­
pendix B in terms of its impact on these projections.
More detailed system descriptions and users’ guides are
available upon request.



2

reasonable, it is aggregated and compared with levels
used at the macro stage. At all steps in this process, the
disaggregated estimates are made consistent with their
macro counterparts.
An outline of the various analytical stages of the pro­
jections methodology is given below. Chart 1 shows
the computational blocks of the system.

2. Industry purchases
C. Interindustry tables
1. Base period tables
2. Coefficient projections
3. Projected tables
D. Projected industry outputs
1. Calculation of gross outputs
2. Evaluation and feedback

A. Macroeconomic projections
1. Policy inputs
2. Potential GNP
3. Income flows
4. Demand sectors

E. Projected industry employment
1. Productivity changes
2. Labor demand
3. Evaluation and feedback

Final demand purchases
1. Functional levels




3




Chart 1. Economic Growth System

Industry Activity Model
Personal
consumption
expenditures
submodel

BLS Labor Demand Model
Industry
hours

Industry
productivity

4

Industry
employment

1

Chapter 2. Aggregate
Economic Projections

Overview

a.

The macroeconomic model provides estimates of
growth in the major sectors of the economy that are
consistent with all assumptions and conditions of a par­
ticular projection scenario. The purpose of the aggre­
gate projections is to provide consistent and integrated
control totals for the projected industry purchases that
are developed later in the system. Projections for the
overall economy are prepared using a modified version
of a fiscal-policy model first designed and estimated by
Lester Thurow in 1969.
The BLS macro model is a relatively small-scale
model (approximately 50 equations) whose purpose is
to capture the impacts of those factors which affect de­
mand and supply over the medium to long term.2 The
model is structured around a framework in which out­
put produced is balanced with output demanded via in­
come flows. To bring about this balance between sup­
ply and demand GNP, the model is structured to re­
spond to fiscal policy changes, which affect the level
and distribution of spendable income in the personal
and corporate sectors. The following discussion of the
model covers its three main areas or blocks: Supply,
income, and demand. Although these blocks are treated
as separate entities, they are not independent, due to
simultaneous solutions in the structure of the model. A
fourth block, price/wage determination, is discussed
briefly as well. Major exogenous variables are pointed
out as necessary. All of the behavioral equations and
major model identities referred to in the text are de­
tailed in appendix A.
The four computational blocks of the model are out­
lined below. It is important to note that all blocks are
solved simultaneously.

b.

Capital consumption allowances

c.

Corporate profits taxes

d. Corporate dividends
2. Personal income
a. Indirect business taxes
b. Transfers to persons
c. Social insurance contributions
d. Personal taxes
e. Personal savings
C. Demand-side GNP
1. Personal consumption expenditures
2. Gross private domestic investment
a. Producers’ durable equipment
b. Nonresidential structures
c. Residential structures
d. Change in business inventories
3. Net foreign trade
a. Exports
b. Imports
4. Government
a. Federal
b. State and local
i) education
ii) other
D. Price/wage

1. Private GNP implicit price deflator
2. Private compensation per hour
Assumptions of the macro projections

There are 51 variables in the BLS macroeconomic
model that are exogenous, or that must be estimated
externally in various ways for the projected periods.
From a solution point of view, all exogenous variables
are assumptions. From a structural approach, however,
the exogenous variables may be grouped in three ways.
First are those items projected with sophisticated tech­
niques outside the Office of Economic Growth, such
as the population or labor force estimates. Second are
those items which represent either policy instruments

A. Supply-side GNP
1. Aggregate labor force, employment, and average
hours
2. Total hours
3. Aggregate capital stocks
4. Gross product originating
5.. Output per hour
B.

Income
1. Corporate sector




Profits

2
Lester C. Thurow, “A Fiscal Policy Model of the United,”—
iSurvey o f Current Business, June 1969, pp. 4S-64.

5

or policy goals. The policy instruments, such as Fed­
eral tax rates or Federal employment levels, represent
the Federal Government’s position at any particular
point in time. The policy goals, such as the unemploy­
ment rate or the Federal deficit, are the result of such
measures. Finally, there are those exogenous variables
which are assumptions in the narrowest sense; i.e., they
represent a judgment as to the probable course of a
particular item. An example of this category would be
the inflation rate.
When all of these variables are projected and con­
sidered as a whole, they present a picture of the eco­
nomic conditions assumed for a particular set of pro­
jections. All of the projection results are heavily influ­
enced by the initial assumptions required to operate the
macro model. These follow from the nature of the sce­
nario or the conditions being examined for their effects
on employment. Four categories of explicit assumptions
are developed for each scenario: Demographic, fiscal
policy, price, and productivity and employment assump­
tions. In addition, certain general goals or guidelines
affect the projections process. For example, the effects
of rising energy prices and potential energy shortages
were considered and were assumed, or expected, not
to be sufficient to affect aggregate economic growth.
Foreign trade was assumed to achieve a rough balance
over time. And, in balancing supply and demand GNP,
there was an attempt to maintain Federal outlays as a
percent of GNP at below current rates and approxi­
mately to balance budget receipts and expenditures to
the extent the scenarios permitted.

tributions for social security programs were based upon
the expected taxable wage base and the combined employer/employee tax rate. Federal purchases of goods
and services, excluding compensation, were assumed to
grow slowly in real terms, increasing at an average of
slightly less than 2 percent per year. Federal transfer
payments consist of: (1) Unemployment insurance ben­
efits; (2) social security benefits; (3) Federal civilian em­
ployee retirement; (4) railroad retirement; (5) veterans’
benefits; (6) hospital and supplementary medical insur­
ance; (7) supplementary security income; and (8) all
other Federal transfer payments. Projections of each
category are generally based upon expected inflation,
changes in the size of client populations, and expected
real changes in benefits. For this projection series, all
categories were assumed to maintain the same level of
real benefits through 1983; after 1983, modest annual
increases in real benefits were assumed for each. Grantsin-aid to States and localities and subsidies to Federal
Government enterprises were assumed to continue un­
changed in real terms.
Price. While price assumptions do not directly affect
the determination of real GNP, they do affect the pro-'
jections in several important ways. First, wage rates
and interest rates are influenced to a great extent by
price changes. These in turn affect consumption ex­
penditures and residential investment. Second, price
changes affect the Federal budget. They enter implic­
itly into the determination of various expenditure lev­
els, while, on the revenues side, they affect personal
income taxes because of the progressive tax structure.
The movement of prices in the future, of course, can
not be adequately projected. Price assumptions used in
the projections are judgments that may contain substan­
tial error. For these projections, the inflation rate was
assumed to be lower than the average rate since 1973,
but above the average for the 20 years preceding 1968.

Demographic. Demographic assumptions include the
projected size of the population and its component
groups, such as urban and rural, number of households,
and changes in the size of the school-age population.
The primary determinants of the demographic assump­
tions are the current and expected level and age distri­
bution of the population. Three projected population
series were available, differing primarily in the assumed
fertility rate.3 The series II projections were accepted
for the base projections. Projections of the number of
households and the number of students were also avail­
able from the Bureau of the Census.4 It was assumed
that recent trends in urban population growth would
continue throughout the projected period.

Productivity and employment. Private nonfarm produc­
tivity was assumed to grow slowly during the projec­
ted period; above the average for 1968-77, but below
that for 1955-68. Very little growth in productivity was
assumed through 1980. Thereafter, a slow recovery to
rates of growth typical of the 1960’s was assumed. This
increase was predicated upon the reversal of some pre­
viously depressing factors. Members of the post-World
War II baby boom will be more experienced as work­
ers during the 1980’s. Also, recent rapid growth in the

Fiscal policy. These include a variety of assumptions
about personal and business taxes, Federal purchases of
goods and services, Federal transfer payments, grantsin-aid, and subsidies. Federal personal income taxes
were assumed to be cut in 1979, consistent with the
Revenue Act of 1978. Further tax cuts were assumed
for the 1980’s of sufficient magnitude to offset the im­
pact of inflation on the personal tax rate. The tax rate
on corporate profits was assumed to drop moderately,
leveling off at 45 percent after 1980. Extimates of con­



3Current Population Reports, Series P-25, No. 704 (Bureau o f the
Census, July 1977 and 1978).
4 Projections o f the number o f households are from Current Popula­
tion Reports, Series P-25, No. 607 (Bureau o f the Census, July 1977
and 1978). School enrollment participation rates by age group are
drawn from Current Population Reports, Series P-20, No. 278 (Bureau
o f the Census, July 1977 and 1978).

6

levels of investment in environmental and energy con­
servation equipment is expected to slow down by 1985,
allowing a greater proportion of investment funds to
be spent on more productive plant and equipment.
Aggregate labor force projections were obtained
from studies made by the BLS Office of Current Em­
ployment Analysis.5Their moderate labor force projec­
tion was adopted for the base case, while the higher
labor force estimate was used for the high employment
alternative case. From these levels, assumptions were
then made as to the expected size of the agricultural
labor force, the Armed Forces and the Federal civilian
labor force, leaving a residual of private nonfarm labor
to be employed. The unemployment rate, treated as a
policy objective in the projections, had a major impact
on the results. Unemployment rates were selected to
show a realistic recovery path from the 1975 recession
to 1980. After recovery, unemployment was assumed
to achieve a stable long-run rate close to full-employ­
ment goals.
The major variables for which explicit assumptions
were required in the projected years are:

Federal subsidies to enterprises
State and local corporate profits taxes
Transfer payments
Interest payments
Subsidies to enterprises

Supply GNP

The first stage in the model sequence is to determine
what the economy can produce. This occurs in the sup­
ply block, which is divided between the private and
public sectors. These two sectors are defined on a gross
product originating basis. That is, all income generated
in the private sector is allocated to that sector regard­
less of which sector consumes the products. Under this
definition, the public sector includes only compensation
paid to Federal, State, and local general government
employees. All other income is assumed by national in­
come accounting conventions to originate in the pri­
vate sector. Private production is further distributed
between farm and nonfarm activities.
The first step in determining private production is to
arrive at an estimate of the labor input to the process.
In the original version of the Thurow model, there were
several behavioral equations specified to determine la­
bor force participation rates for males and females. The
current version takes the labor force as exogenous. Pro­
jections of the labor force by the Office of Current
Employment Analysis are now included in lieu of the
original participation rate equations.6 Labor force pro­
jections start with population projections made by the
Bureau of the Census.7The principal area of uncertainty
in these projections is the estimate of the labor force
participation rate for women. The unemployment rate
of the civilian labor force is set exogenously as a target
variable. Thus, civilian employment as a count of per­
sons is determined by multiplying the civilian labor
force by the unemployment rate (equation 1, appendix
A).
Employment data at the industry level of detail are
available from the monthly BLS survey of business es­
tablishments. This survey is a count of jobs, whereas
the household survey, which forms the basis for the
historical time series on the labor force and unemploy­
ment rate, is a count of persons. In order to maintain
consistency between aggregate and industry results,
equation 2 (appendix A), is used to relate establishment
based civilian employment to civilian employment on
a persons basis and the unemployment rate. A major

U.S. population
Urban population
School enrollment
Number of households
Civilian labor force
Unemployment rate
Military employment
Federal civilian employment
Agricultural employment
Private GNP deflator
Farm equipment purchases
Farm structures purchases
Equipment discards
Structures discards
Residential structures discards
Statistical discrepancy
Unemployment insurance contribution rate
Combined Social Security contribution rate
OASDI coverag ratio
3-month government bill rate
3- to 5-year government bond rate
Federal gasoline tax
Motor fuel usage
Federal corporate profits tax rate
Exports of goods and services

5The projections o f the U.S. labor force are fully detailed in the
article by Howard N. Fullerton and Paul O. Flaim, “Labor Force
Projections to 1990: Three Possible Paths,” Monthly Labor Review,
Dec. 1978, pp. 25-35.
6Ibid.
7Current Population Reports, P-25, No. 704.
8This BLS survey is described in monthly issues of Employment
and Earnings (Bureau of Labor Statistics).

Federal purchases less compensation
Federal transfer payments
Federal grants to State and local governments



7

difference between the two series arises from individ­
uals who hold more than one job, who would be counted
only once in the household survey but more than once
in the establishment survey. Other differences between
the two series have been examined in detail elsewhere.9
The absolute difference between the two series, termed
the conversion factor, tends to increase in recovery pe­
riods, as the number of persons holding two or more
jobs increases, and to decline in recessionary periods,
as the number of these workers declines. The unem­
ployment rate is entered into the equation as an attempt
to capture this tendency.
State and local government employment per capita
in education and noneducation (equations 3 and 4) are
related behaviorally to real purchases of goods and
services per capita, and to trends in urban population
growth as a proportion of the total population. Pur­
chases per capita represent the average demand for
State-provided services. This demand is moderated
somewhat as the urban population expands due to the
more efficient delivery of services in urban areas. Fed­
eral civilian employment and private farm employment
are exogenous. Deducting these items from civilian jobs
yields an estimate of private nonfarm employment in
equation 5.
Equations 6 and 7 estimate average annual hours
worked in the farm and nonfarm sectors. In both cases,
the equations are basically time trends to explain the
long-term secular movement of these series, with the
unemployment rate entered to account for variations
around the trend. In the nonfarm equation, the female
labor force participation rate has been entered as a proxy
for recent increases in part-time workers. Traditional­
ly, women entering the labor market have been more
likely to accept part-time work. The continuation of
this trend is, however, subject to some question, and
the female participation rates must be carefully evalu­
ated in the projection period. Multiplying average an­
nual hours by employment in equations 8 and 9 yields
estimates of total hours worked in the farm and non­
farm sectors. Total hours worked in the two sectors
are transformed to indexes in equations 10 and 11, and,
as such, form the labor inputs to the macro model pro­
duction relationships.
Capital stock series for farm and nonfarm equipment
and structures are derived by identities 12-15. Stock se­
ries are maintained as well for residential structures and
business inventories (equations 16 and 17). However,
these two stock series do not enter the production re­
lationships. Stocks are updated by adding current in­
vestment to last year’s capital stock and subtracting dis­
cards. Five discard series are maintained, all exogenous
to the model. The resulting fixed business capital series
are then indexed (equations 18 and 19), and these in­
dexes form the capital input to the macro model pro­
duction relationships.



The final step in calculating private supply GNP is
to translate hours worked and capital stocks into a re­
sulting flow of goods and services via a production re­
lationship. Two production functions are currently in
use in the macro model, one for the farm sector (equa­
tion 20) and the other for the private nonfarm sector
(equation 21). In both cases, the functions allow for ca­
pacity utilization (as indicated by the unemployment
rate), the impact of available labor and capital, and dis­
embodied technical progress in the form of a time trend.
The capacity utilization term is nonlinear, that is, as
employment increases relative to the available labor
force, output per hour also increases, but at a diminish­
ing rate. In the original formulation of these relation­
ships, a measure of embodied technical progress for
both capital and labor was introduced. Since that time,
however, it has been found that the equations estimated
without these terms enjoy a slight statistical superiority.
The final step in estimating supply GNP is to arrive
at values for gross government product. As was noted
earlier, the supply concept of government covers, by
convention, only compensation of employees. Four
equations are estimated to arrive at compensation for
Federal military, Federal civilian, State and local edu­
cation, and State and local noneducation employees
(equations 22-25). In all four cases, the equations con­
tain terms for the absolute level of employment as well
as adjustment factors to account for shifts in the pay
structure over time.
The four government compensation estimates are
combined with the two private components of GNP to
arrive at the supply-side estimate of total real GNP
(equations 26 and 27).
Income flows

Unlike the supply side of the model, the income flows
are determined in current prices. The income block is
divided between corporate and personal incomes. The
corporate sector centers around six equations and two
identities. First, the gross flow of corporate funds (equa­
tion 28), defined as book corporate profits and capital
consumption allowances, is estimated as a function of
nominal private GNP, capacity utilization, and the rel­
ative movements of output, prices, and labor costs. Cor­
porate capital consumption allowances, with (equation
29) and without (equation 30) the capital consumption
adjustment, are related to the fixed stock of business
capital. Third, Federal corporate profits taxes are de­
termined in equation 31 as a function of corporate prof­
its and the Federal corporate profits tax rate. State and
local corporate profits taxes are exogenous.
Corporate dividend payments are derived (equatior
32) as a function of lagged dividend payments, reflect­
ing the importance of precedent on this item, and tc
9 Gloria P. Green, “Comparing Employment Estimates from House
hold and Payroll Surveys,” Monthly Labor Review, Dec. 1969.

8

Social insurance contributions are determined by four
equations and one identity. The major determining var­
iable in three of the equations is compensation adjusted
for employer contributions for social insurance. There­
fore, equation 41 relates the employer share of social
insurance contributions to total contributions. Follow­
ing this determination are three equations (equations
42-44) for the following types of contributions: 1) Un­
employment insurance funds, 2) social security funds,
and 3) all State and local government social insurance
funds. The unemployment fund contributions are de­
termined as a function of adjusted compensation and
the exogenous average employer contribution rate for
this category of social insurance. Social security con­
tributions are related to the adjusted level of compen­
sation, the wage base, social security coverage, and the
combined employer/employee tax rate. The tax rate
and coverage ratio are exogenous as is the wage base
in the historical period. In the projection period, how­
ever, attempts have been made to relate the wage base
to changes in nominal average compensation, lagged
two periods. State insurance funds are related to ad­
justed compensation of State employees only. All oth­
er contributions to Federal programs, such as Federal
civilian employee retirement funds, are exogenous. An
identity is introduced at this point summing the four
types of contributions to arrive at the total level of so­
cial insurance contributions (equation 45).
Interest paid by consumers is determined in equation
46 by the level of personal income and the yield on
3-month government bills. Combining all of these items
in equation 47 yields the estimate for personal income.
Median family income (equation 48) is a function of
the employment rate, GNP per worker, and the share
of GNP going to personal income. Federal personal
taxes depend upon the level of personal income in equa­
tion 49. Progressivity is built into the equation by in­
cluding the average tax rate on median family income.
State and local personal taxes (equation 50) are a func­
tion of personal income, lagged taxes, and a time trend.
Deducting personal taxes from personal income (equa­
tion 51) yields an estimate of disposable personal in­
come. Personal savings are related to the level of dis­
posable income, medium-term interest rates, and the in­
flation rate in equation 52. Aggregate personal con­
sumption expenditures are determined by identity in
equation 53.

corporate internal funds net of fixed investment expend­
itures. Inventory valuation adjustments are related in
equation 33 to price change, changes in real business
inventories, and to last year’s stock of inventories. A
dummy variable has been added to reflect the effects
of the oil price increases not adequately covered in the
private GNP deflator. Identities 34 and 35 are then
specified for corporate internal funds and for undistrib­
uted corporate profits.
The key to personal income is an identity which ex­
presses personal income as a series of deductions from
and additions to GNP as depicted below:
Gross national product
Less: Corporate and noncorporate capital
consumption allowances
Equals: Net national product
Less: Indirect business taxes
Business transfer payments
Statistical discrepancy
Plus: Subsidies less current surplus of government
enterprises
Equals: National income
Less: Book corporate profits
Social insurance contributions
Plus: Transfer payments
Net interest
Consumer interest
Dividends
Business transfer payments
Equals: Personal income
Noncorporate capital consumption allowances (equa­
tion 36) depend upon the housing stock as the princi­
pal explanatory variable. The housing stock multiplied
by a time trend is used as an additional explanatory
variable. Determined in real terms, noncorporate con­
sumption allowances are then converted to current dol­
lars with the capital consumption deflator in equation
37. Federal indirect business taxes (equation 38) are re­
lated to private nominal GNP, the Federal tax rate on
gasoline, projected motor fuel usage, and a dummy var­
iable for the Korean War period. State indirect business
taxes (equation 39) are related to major State-funded
expenditures, that is, purchases of goods and services
and transfer payments less grants-in-aid from the Fed­
eral Government. Business transfer payments, the sta­
tistical discrepancy, and subsidies to Federal and State
government enterprises are exogenous.
Federal interest payments are determined in equation
40 as a function of the 3- to 5-year government bond
rate, times a proxy for the Federal debt. The proxy is
constructed from the 1954 value of public issues of mar­
ketable bills, bonds, and notes, incremented by the val­
ue of the Federal deficit (+ ) or surplus (-) in each suc­
ceeding year. State and local interest payments are
exogenous.



Demand GNP

There are currently three equations (equations 54-56)
in the model for personal consumption expenditures.
The durable goods equation depends upon total per­
sonal consumption as an income proxy as well as the
unemployment rate, last year’s residential investment,
the change in real disposable income, and a proxy for
consumer debt burden. Nondurable goods purchases
are related to total consumption, the debt burden, and
9

the unemployment rate. Consumption of services is a
function of total consumption, the unemployment rate,
and the stock of residential structures.
There are four equations for investment (equations
57-60). Nonfarm equipment purchases depend upon pri­
vate nonfarm GNP, the internal flow of funds availa­
ble for investment, the existing stock of equipment, and
the interaction between capacity utilization and profit­
ability as measured by the previous year’s ratio of in­
ternal funds to the capital stock. Nonfarm structures
purchases are related to private nonfarm GNP and last
year’s investment in structures. Farm purchases of
equipment and structures are exogenous.
The equation for changes in the stock of business in­
ventories is not formulated to capture short-run fluctu­
ations in inventories. Rather, it represents an attempt
to estimate desired inventory changes by means of a
stock-adjustment process, modified to allow for a time
trend and a nonlinear capacity utilization variable.
Investment in residential structures depends upon the
number of households, medium-term interest rates, and
real disposable income per household. This latter var­
iable is included to take account of increasing family
incomes which are not necessarily reflected on a per
capita basis.
Imports of goods and services are determined in equa­
tion 61 by real incomes, relative prices, lagged imports,
and a capacity-pressure variable based upon the spread
between potential and actual GNP. This particular var­
iable has an accelerator impact on imports. That is, as
the actual/potential GNP ratio moves away from its
long-run average, the impact on imports increases at an
increasing rate.
Purchases of goods and services by the Federal Gov­
ernment are determined by identity given in equation
62. Compensation, determined in the supply block, is
added to exogenous goods purchases to arrive at this
figure. State and local purchases are determined by
equations for the education (equation 63) and nonedu­
cation (equation 64) sectors. Noneducation purchases
are related to private GNP, Federal grants-in-aid for
noneducational uses, and the unemployment rate. Ed­
ucation purchases are determined as a function of pri­
vate GNP, Federal education grants, and school
enrollments.

tion and to determine the rate of inflation within the
model.10
There are two major equations and four identities in
this sector of Jhe model. The price equation (equation
65) determines the implicit deflator for private GNP as
a markup on unit labor costs and crude materials prices.
The unemployment rate is also included. The percent
change in private compensation per hour (equation 66)
is, in turn, a function of private productivity, prices,
and the unemloyment rate. Equations 67-70 are identi­
ties for private compensation per hour, private com­
pensation, unit labor costs, and the spread between price
change and w'age change. Equations 71-79 are deriva­
tions of other deflators as a function of the private GNP
deflator. Finally, equation 80 is an identity for the total
GNP deflator as a weighted sum of the various demand
component deflators.
Balancing the macro model

Summation of the derived real components of de­
mand in equation 81 yields the demand-side estimate of
GNP. The demand- and supply-side estimates of GNP
may not agree, and the magnitude of such an imbalance
is represented by equation 82. A positive sign for the
gap represents a situation of excess supply, while a
negative sign indicates excess demand. Although the
sum of disposable sector incomes necessarily equals the
supply-side estimate of the GNP, demand for GNP will
fall short of or exceed the supply of GNP unless the
total purchases of the various sectors happen to equal
their combined incomes.
The gap between supply and demand GNP depends
in part on the government policies incorporated in the
model. If there is a gap, this implies that the target rate
of unemployment cannot be achieved with the existing
fiscal assumptions. Thus, the various policy instruments
in the model are modified to effect a balance between
supply and demand. Many combinations of policies are
possible, and a final choice is made on the basis of many
considerations that are outside the model.
Solving the macro model

The solution of the model is somewhat different from
the foregoing discussion of behavioral relationships and
identities. In order to facilitate solution, equations are
arranged by block, where equations within a block are
simultaneous. Initial estimates of the key block results
are provided and iterative solution techniques are ap­
plied to refine the initial solution until the model arrives
at a consistent solution.

Price/wage sector

As was previously noted, the supply and demand
blocks of the BLS macro model are determined in con­
stant prices, whereas the income side is expressed in
current prices. In the original formulation of the mod­
el, the movement between real and nominal prices was
accomplished with a set of exogenously specified de­
flators. The price/wage sector has been added to insure
internal consistency between price and wage determina­




10 Richard C. Barth, “The Development o f Wage and Price Rela­
tion-collect ships for a Long-Term Econometric M odel,” Survey o f
Current Business, Aug. 1972, pp. 15-20.

10

Chapter 3. Final Demand
Projections

Gross national product (GNP) is the final output of
the economy measured from the demand side, or the
output of the economy distributed among its final users.
Final users are broadly categorized as persons, busi­
nesses, governments, and foreign. Final demand con­
sists of the purchases made by these groups, or the pur­
chases of the demand sectors of GNP. Final demand
projections involve estimating the future purchases of
each demand sector, by industry of origin. For the 1990
projections, the economy was disaggregated into 162
different industries. These industries define the bills of
goods, or lists of purchases, prepared for each final de­
mand sector. The output of the macro model provided
control totals for each final demand sector. The first
step in projecting distributions of purchases for each
sector was to develop data series for the purchases each
made in past years. The years studied were primarily
years for which the Department of Commerce pub­
lished input-output studies (1958, 1963, and 1967)" and
1973, which became the base year of the projections.
In addition, many data series were available through
1976, providing recent trends. These historical data
were used with a variety of techniques and submodels
to project purchases.

idential construction was estimated in the macro mod­
el. In the case of foreign trade, projections were based
largely upon historical data. Import and export projec­
tions relied heavily on least-squares time trends or
growth rate extensions with modifications. Special stud­
ies were also made of expected import penetration ratios
and expected demand for exports of selected products.
The Federal Government sector was initially divid­
ed into six subsectors while State and local government
purchases were distributed into 20. The Federal sector
was split into two defense subsectors and four non­
defense subsectors with each of the six bills of goods
dependent on historical input-output data and other
government data on industry purchases. The State and
local government sector was disaggregated to 20 ma­
jor functions, such as primary education, higher educa­
tion, health, hospitals, and general government, with
each of the 20 bills of goods based upon past distribu­
tions of purchases and other conditions.
Assumptions

Various assumptions underlie projections of the de­
tailed purchases of the final demand sectors. In gener­
al, these assumptions follow the conditions of the sce­
narios being examined; major changes expected in the
magnitude and nature of the activities of each demand
sector; and in some cases, changes in the demand, price,
and availability of particular products. While assump­
tions were developed primarily for functional levels of
demand sectors, such as education or space, they were
also used for important industry sectors, as in the case
of energy costs and availability. Prior to making the
detailed projections of purchases, assumptions for each
scenario were jointly developed by members of the fi­
nal demand group.
Major functional areas were considered first. For ex­
ample, the recent history of health care was examined
for trends, and various current proposals for change
were considered. Since the classification of health pur­
chases is different for private and public buyers, the
extent of increased government participation through
1990 had to be examined. Since information at the time
was limited, it was assumed that government participa­
tion would increase slightly, but that no comprehensive

Overview

Final demand projections, or the estimation of pur­
chases within the control totals provided by the macro
model, in most cases started with the functional levels
or broader groups of products purchased by each de­
mand sector. These levels were then distributed to each
of the 162 different industries. Industry purchases were
then converted from purchasers’ values to producers’
values by separating out distribution costs. All purchases
were then converted to a constant price level.
In the case of personal consumption, expenditures
were first distributed to 82 major product categories
using a consumption demand model. For each of these
82 products, a distribution pattern was used to allocate
each total to its appropriate producing industries.
In the business or investment sector, four major sub­
sectors were defined: Nonresidential construction, pro­
ducers’ durable equipment, residential construction, and
change in business inventories. Investment was treated
as a function of the level of sales in each industry or
the ratio of investment to output in each industry. Res­



11 The Input-Output Structure o f the United States 1958, 1963, and
1967 (U.S. Department o f Commerce, Bureau o f Economic Analysis).

11

national program would be adopted by 1990. Further,
the extent to which medical purchases would continue
to be influenced by new technologies had to be consid­
ered. Educational purchases, as a total, were assumed
to vary with fluctuations in the size of the school-age
population. During the projected period, the size of the
school-age population will decline, but the post-World
War II baby boom members will be entering child­
bearing age. The possibility of the private sector in­
creasing its share of school expenditures, relative to the
public share, also had to be evaluated. The impact of
increasing energy costs and shortages on purchases of
different types of transportation services were also con­
sidered, with various assumptions developed dealing
with investment in mass transit, railroads, and highways.
Levels of defense and space outlays were based on as­
sumptions made about international conditions and the
rate of space exploration.
Product purchases were considered in certain cases.
Purchases of ordnance were based upon assumptions
about defense replacement requirements and U.S. pol­
icies on military sales to foreign governments. Aircraft
purchases were heavily influenced by defense assump­
tions, expected foreign military sales, and airline invest­
ments. Energy was the principal area where assump­
tions were made on a product level. In this case, the
Data Resources, Inc., (DRI) energy model was used
with the assumptions of the BLS macro model to pro­
ject total British Thermal Unit (BTU) use by type of
energy and by domestic or foreign source. These de­
mand figures were used as a check on the output fig­
ures derived from the projected energy coefficients. In
addition to total energy consumption by type, the DRI
model also provided estimates of the direct use by
households and governments, affecting the personal
consumption and Federal and State and local govern­
ment bills of goods. The prices from the model were
used to project the coefficients. All of the assumptions
inherent in the DRI energy model, therefore, became
those used in the projected BLS energy industries. These
included such things as price increases for domestic and
OPEC oil, deregulation of natural gas, and the rate of
development of nuclear and other sources of electric
power. In general, these conditions assumed that the
prices of natural gas and oil would increase more ra­
pidly than the prices of coal and electricity. Coal and
electricity were assumed to be more readily available
through 1990.

steps. After total consumption was determined by the
BLS macroeconometric model, the first step was to
project consumption by major type of expenditure, such
as food, housing, or medical care. There were 82 cate­
gories projected, and they were forced to sum to the
projected consumption controls of the macro model.
Historical data for each of these categories were avail­
able from the Department of Commerce as part of the
National Income and Product Accounts.12 These data
were used to develop a set of behavioral equations to
project the 82 categories. The second step was to dis­
tribute these 82 product expenditures to the producing
industries. This was accomplished with the use of pro­
jected bridge tables which distribute each category to
its component industries as well as to the transporta­
tion, insurance, and trade industries. The result was the
personal consumption expenditure bill of goods, the
largest component of final demand.
Each historical input-output table produced by the
Department of Commerce (1958, 1963, and 1967 existed
for this project)” has an associated bridge table which
distributes expenditures for the 82 consumption aggre­
gates. Each expenditure item is assigned to one or more
of the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) industries
(367 order). The BEA estimates these products for each
year and benchmarks them to new bridge tables as they
become available.
Product projections. A consumption submodel was used
to project the 82 product categories. This model, de­
veloped by H. S. Houthakker and L. Taylor consists
of a set of 82 demand-oriented consumption functions.14
These equations, which were originally estimated in
1958 constant dollars from 1929 to 1964, distribute to­
tal PCE to major product expenditure categories. To­
tal PCE and the annual change in PCE are primary
variables used as a proxy for disposable income. PCE
has a high level of explanatory power in these equa­
tions. Relative prices are also used extensively. The lag
structure of the equations allows changes in explanato­
ry variables to be distributed over time.
For these projections, the model was reestimated in
1972 dollars from 1929 to 1975. The new equations were
simulated over the projected period using preliminary
controls for purchases of durables, nondurables, and
services from the macro model. Many of the model
equations produced projections which were inconsist­
ent with past trends. As time and resources permitted,
additional research was done for these products. Some
of the alternatives used were growth rates, time poly­
nomials, and variations of other consumption models.

Personal consumption expenditures

Personal consumption expenditures (PCE) are the
value of goods and services purchased by individuals
and nonprofit institutions. Purchases of dwellings are
not included, although the rental value of owner-occu­
pied dwellings is imputed to consumption outlays. The
distribution of personal consumption expenditures to
producing industries was accomplished in two major



12Survey o f Current Business, July issues, Tables 2.6 and 2.7 (Depart­
ment o f Commerce, Bureau o f Economic Analysis).
13 The Input-Output Structure o f the United States.
14H. S. Houthakker and L. D. Taylor, Consumer Demand in the
U.S., Analyses and Projections (Cambridge, Harvard University Press,
1964).

12

More specifically, new estimators were generated using
the BEA data in 1972 dollars through 1975, the latest
available year at the time, and the model specifications
published by Houthakker and Taylor. The equations
used are given in appendix C. Product projections were
then made using the preliminary macro PCE projec­
tions, the assumed population projections series, and
trend extrapolations of relative price. In addition, the
original period (1929-64) was used to create estimators,
and ex post simulations were made from 1965 to 1975.
There were three measures to evaluate the initial esti­
mates: 1) The statistical fit of the model, 2) the ex post
simulation results, and 3) the ex ante projections using
the preliminary controls. The statistical fits varied, but,
for most products, there were problems of significance
in some of the parameters. The ex post simulations for
almost all equations produced directional biases as well
as errors increasing over time, even with the correct
lagged consumption value. Ex ante projections proved
important since some of the better fits and/or ex post
simulations produced unacceptable conditional projec­
tions to 1990.
Finally, the sum of the projected product levels was
brought into balance with macro consumption totals by
allocating the difference to categories according to the
relative change in their value. Twenty-three of the orig­
inal Houthakker-Taylor equations remained in the so­
lution set. Of those, six were add-factored for various
reasons. Four estimators were respecifications of the
Houthakker-Taylor model. Seven products had new
equations specified with item-specific explanatory var­
iables. Eleven projections came from other government
or private projections. Twelve of the products had time
polynomial extrapolators, and five used other extrapolators, such as population and the death rate. Exoge­
nous projections, including growth rate extrapolators,
accounted for the other 20 projections. Of the 82 pro­
jections, 20 involved add factors.

and transportation margins from the product and allo­
cates them accordingly. Bridge tables were developed
by the BEA for all input-output years. Thus, at the time
these projections were prepared, data were available
for 1958, 1963, and 1967. Each bridge table had been
prepared in current dollars. For this project, the 1963
and 1967 tables were reestimated in constant (1972) dol­
lars and further modified in the way imports were han­
dled.15 First, imports were valued at domestic port val­
ue instead of foreign port value, decreasing the margin
entries by the amount of the margins associated with
transporting the goods between the foreign and domes­
tic ports and increasing the producers’ value by a sim­
ilar amount. Second, imports were assigned to the rel­
evant domestic industry based on the nature of the
product. Because of a lack of information, this was not
possible for three areas: Military food abroad, land trav­
el overseas, and purchases by government employees
overseas.
A bridge table for 1973 was estimated by the BLS.
As a first estimate, the relationships from the 1967 bridge
table were used. Where this method produced results
inconsistent with other data, changes were made in the
bridge relationship. Detailed study was made of the re­
lationship between the 1967 bridge table and the 1967
Census of Manufactures, and like relationships were as­
sumed for 1972. Unpublished shipments data were used
to extrapolate these relationships to 1973. The differ­
ence was scaled back to the industries, and the estimates
were reevaluated. In cases where the estimates were
still inconsistent with other data, additional extrapola­
tors were developed.
For the projections, the 1973 bridge table was used
as an initial estimate of the projected bridge table. Feed­
back from the final demand-output review identified
products which were in need of further study. “Food
on and off premise” required extensive work, changing
the relationships among industries producing these
goods. In total, only about 12 of the 82 categories re­
quired changes, so the 1973 bridge table was used for
most of the products in the projected years.

Industry projections. The product expenditure catego­
ries were then transformed to a set of final demands
consistent with the input-output framework. Each of
these categories was made up of many types of goods,
produced by different industries. A matrix or bridge
table was used to transform the product forecasts into
the 162 industries used in the projections.
A bridge table distributes product aggregates to com­
ponent goods and services and to margin industries.
The product projections are expressed in purchasers’
values, while the bills of goods are expressed in pro­
ducers’ values. The difference is the cost added to a
particular industry’s output in getting that output from
the point of production to the consumer, including such
items as transportation costs and wholesale and retail
trade markups. The bridge table accomplishes two tasks
at once—it allocates each category or product expend­
iture to its producing industry, and removes the trade



Gross private domestic investment

Gross private domest ivestment (GPDI) is composed
of fixed investment and the change in business inven­
tories. Fixed investment represents purchases of dura­
ble equipment and structures by business and nonprofit
institutions along with residential investment. Change
in business inventories represents the value of the in­
crease or decrease in raw materials, semifinished goods,
and finished goods held by business. In projecting the
15
The OEG treatment o f foreign trade was changed in these pro­
jections to yield domestic rather than total output. Imports that are
competitive are now subtracted from final demand by industry. Pre­
viously, imports were treated as a single, negative value in the export
bill o f goods. For more information, see the section o f final demand.

13

industrial composition of investment demand, four cate­
gories were considered: 1) Residential construction, 2)
nonresidential construction, 3) producers’ durable
equipment, and 4) change in business inventories. Con­
trol totals for each of these categories were derived
from the BLS macroeconometric model and then allo­
cated to producing industries.
Historical data series for each of the components of
investment were developed. For residential structures,
a detailed series from 1958 to 1976 was developed from
data from the national income accounts. These data
showed the movement of the detailed types of residen­
tial construction, such as single-family homes, multi­
family units, and additions and alterations. For nonres­
idential structures, detailed data from the national in­
come accounts showed expenditures for various types
of construction, such as religious buildings, telephone
and telegraph facilities, and farm buildings. In some
cases, these detailed series had to be disaggregated us­
ing factors developed for input-output years to show
trends for the more detailed types of construction. The
data were then aggregated to the level of detail used
in the Economic Growth industry model. These data
series were developed in both current and constant
(1972) dollars.
The process for developing the historical equipment
bill of goods series was more complicated. As part of
the national income accounts, product expenditures are
published annually for equipment types, such as trac­
tors, special industry machinery, or general industrial
equipment. Each of these products can include goods
produced by more than one industry. They are also ex­
pressed in purchasers’ value. As in the case of PCE,
bridge tables are available to split these product ex­
penditures into producing industries, and to remove the
margins. The 1963 and 1967 bridge tables prepared by
BEA were aggregated to Economic Growth industry
sectors and then inflated to 1972 constant dollars. A
1973 bridge table was estimated in constant dollars, us­
ing the 1967 relationships as a first estimate. For prod­
ucts where information was available, the bridge table
relationships for a specific product were changed. These
data were checked for consistency with other estimates
being made, and revisions were made as necessary. By
interpolating between the bridge tables to create an an­
nual series of bridge tables, it was possible to convert
these product data into a time series from 1958 to 1976
for equipment by producing industry in producers’
values.
In addition, capital flows tables were used to provide
historical data on plant and equipment. A capital flows
table shows the flows of investment goods to the var­
ious industries which purchase them. For each indus­
try, it is possible to examine the types of investment
goods purchased, and to determine the relative impor­
tance of these goods among their total investment pur­
chases. For each good, it is possible to examine the in­



dustries which purchase it, and the relative importance
of each of the industries in making up total purchases.
Capital flows tables are developed for input-output
years, and at the time of this study, were available for
1958, 1963, and 1967, in current dollars. The 1958 table
was developed by the BLS, while the 1963 and 1967
tables were developed by the BEA. Some inconsisten­
cies are apparent among the methodologies used to pre­
pare the tables, so the 1958 table was not used in this
study. The tables were repriced to 1972 constant dol­
lars. Using detailed bills of goods developed for 1973
along with data on investment by industry, a capital
flows table for 1973 was estimated in constant dollars
based on the 1967 table. This table estimates the distri­
bution of purchases of investment goods by each indus­
try in 1973.
Historical data for the inventory change bill of goods
are available only for the input-output years. Input-output conventions allocate inventory change to the pro­
ducing industry, no matter which industry holds it.
However, data available from the national income ac­
counts are on a holder basis, not a producer basis.
There are three major components of residential con­
struction that must be projected: 1) Mobile homes, 2)
nonfarm residential structures, and 3) farm residential
structures. Mobile homes, which are allocated to the
“other transportation equipment” sector, have whole­
sale and retail trade and rail and truck transportation
margins associated with them. Farm residential struc­
tures are allocated to the “all other new construction”
sector, while nonfarm residential structures are allocat­
ed to “new residential construction.” Associated with
farm and nonfarm residential structures are brokers’
commissions on their sales (allocated to “other real es­
tate”) and net purchases of used structures (allocated
to the “scrap, used and secondhand goods industry”).
These sectors are aggregates of the more detailed lev­
el of the historical data.
Projected business investment in nonresidential struc­
tures was distributed chiefly to “nonresidential build­
ings,” “public utilities,” “oil and gas well drilling and
exploration,” and “all other new construction.” There
are also small purchases of “residential buildings”
(nurses’ housing) and “mobile homes,” as well as asso­
ciated margins, and a small purchase of “used
structures.”
Investment in equipment is allocated to many differ­
ent manufacturing sectors, as well as to the trade and
transportation sectors. In some cases, services which
are capitalized on a firm’s books are also included as
equipment purchases. Types of equipment range from
mining, construction, and oilfield machinery to amuse­
ment park equipment, computers, and office machinery.
The change in business inventories is very different
from the other components of investment. There are
entries, either negative or positive, in almost every in­
dustry except construction and services. The relative
14

importance of any entry can change greatly from year
to year. Detailed bills of goods are available only in
input-output years.
Initial estimates of the projected bills of goods for
structures were made at the level of the most detailed
historical data based on past relationships. Data from
1958 to 1976 were used to project the movement of
these detailed categories into the future. These individ­
ual projections were aggregated and then evaluated
against the projected controls obtained from the macro
model. Changes were made as necessary to the detailed
projections until they added to the control totals. These
estimates, along with estimates of the other final de­
mand bills of goods, were used to generate initial esti­
mates of output by industry. Capital flows tables, which
allocate purchases of structures and equipment by type,
along with investment-output ratios, which relate an
industry’s investment to its total output, were estimated
for the projected years based on historical data. The
projected investment-output ratios, capital flows tables,
and outputs were used to create a bill of goods for
structures to be checked for consistency with the ini­
tially projected construction vector. Changes were
made as necessary to get a consistent set of tables, in­
vestment-output ratios, and projected bills of goods.
The use of a capital flows approach allowed changes
in industry outputs to change the investment of the
industries.
Investment in equipment, like investment in plant
construction, is projected by relating it to the output
of the industries producing goods and services for sale
to other industries and to final demand. Most industries
require a wide variety of investment goods, and indus­
tries producing investment goods sell equipment to a
variety of users. As a result, comparing the types of
investment goods required against the initial estimates
of equipment types produced is a complex process.
Initially, producers’ durable equipment was projec­
ted for detailed industries based on historical trends. As
in the case of nonresidential structures, these estimates
were then used to generate initial estimates of output
by industry. At this point in the projection sequence,
there was no assurance that the initial estimates of types
of equipment produced were consistent with the types
of investment goods required by the generated outputs.
As with the nonresidential structures component of in­
vestment, investment-output ratios and capital flows ta­
bles were projected, which, with the generated outputs,
allowed a check of the consistency of those projections.
The projected capital flows tables, investment-output
ratios, and initial bills of goods were adjusted until they
were consistent. The capital flows table allowed changes
in industry output to be reflected in the investment bills
of goods.
Projections of net inventory change by producing
industry were based primarily on projected industry



outputs. A constant percentage of output for each in­
dustry was used as an initial estimate of the bill of goods.
Industries which had a perishable product were then
adjusted to be more in line with the past levels. The
initial projections were modified as necessary in later
stages in the projection process. Less effort was ex­
pended on the allocation of net inventory change to
the producing industries since this item is relatively un­
important in long-run projections.
Net exports

Net exports represent the value of total exports of
goods and services less the value of total imports of
goods and services. Exports and imports are handled
separately in the input-output system and are netted out
only at a final stage to present a conceptually consist­
ent level of GNP.
Unlike other sectors of final demand, historical data
on foreign trade are plentiful and detailed. Instead of
problems of disaggregation and estimation, foreign trade
data must be compiled or aggregated into the inputoutput industry sectors. Data on both exports and im­
ports are obtained from the detailed merchandise trade
statistics published annually by the Bureau of the Cen­
sus. For exports, this includes Standard Industrial Clas­
sification (SIC) product codes and schedule B commod­
ity codes. For imports, data are available by SIC-based
produce codes and by special U.S. tariff schedule
(TSUSA) codes. Data requirements after aggregation
involve modification and augmentation to reflect balance-of-payments and input-output conventions.
Exports are treated as any other component of final
demand in the input-output system; imports, on the oth­
er hand, require a unique treatment. Total imports are
projected by an equation in the macroeconometric mod­
el. This total is then divided into two categories in the
input-output system. The first category consists of all
imports of final users, as well as intermediate imports
which are competitive with domestic products.
In the input-output system, this first category of im­
ports is shown as a negative column of demand; that
is, subtracted from final demand in order to yield de­
mand for domestic output rather than total output for
each industry. In previous BLS projections and in the
published input-output tables of the BEA prior to 1972,
a different treatment of imports was used. Intermediate
imports which were competitive with U.S. products
were transferred to their corresponding domestic in­
dustries. Intermediate imports which were not compet­
itive were allocated to the consuming U.S. industry.
Each type of intermediate import formed a row of co­
efficients in the input-output table, one called “trans­
ferred imports,” the other “directly allocated imports.”
4.11 final demand imports, whether competitive or non­
competitive, were allocated to each of the final demand
sectors and appeared only in the cells where each final
15

demand column intersected the directly allocated im­
port row. The value of all imports (both types of inter­
mediate plus final demand) was then subtracted from
the export column of final demand to arrive at a net
export figure. The result of this method was to yield
an input-output table reflecting total, not, domestic out­
put, since imports were not subtracted by industry. (See
The Structure of the U.S. Economy in 1980 and 1985,
BLS Bulletin 1831, for more information on this
method.)
As an illustration of the treatment in the input-out­
put system of imports not subject to further processing,
consider the automobile industry. Intermediate and fi­
nal demand for automobiles includes some share that is
met by foreign producers. By subtracting the value of
foreign automobiles from total demand for autos, the
demand for domestic automobiles is derived. As this is
done for every industry for which there are competi­
tive imports, the result is a demand for domestic goods
which, when applied to the coefficients of the inputoutput table, produces estimates of domestic, rather than
total, output by industry.
The projection of competitive imports by industry is
mainly based on analysis of existing and expected shares
of the domestic market. Trade agreements which may
restrict imports are also taken into account.
The second category of imports encompasses inter­
mediate products that have no domestic substitutes in
the sense that they cannot be replaced by domestic items
in existing production processes without altering the
nature of the product. These imports are directly allo­
cated to the industries which use them in their produc­
tion processes. Thus, coffee, which is not produced in
the United States, is directly allocated to the food prod­
ucts industry where it is ground, blended, and packaged
before being allocated to the personal consumption ex­
penditure category of final demand. Once the interme­
diate, noncompetitive imports are allocated to the user
industries, they are transformed into coefficients. The
coefficients are then projected in much the same way
as domestic coefficients in the input-output table.
After imports are initially projected, the level of ex­
ports is set so as to reach a nearly zero current-dollar
trade balance in the projected years, an assumption or
policy target. The value of total exports is in turn dis­
tributed by industry, primarily on the basis of time
trends and expected world conditions. It was necessary
to rely on naive forecasting techniques to project ex­
ports by industry because long-term estimates of for­
eign income and prices are generally not available.

actual GNP to potential GNP). Imports were then con­
verted to current dollars, based on the assumption that
the import deflator would grow from 1976 through
1990 at the same rate as the private GNP deflator. A
policy target of a close-to-zero current-dollar trade bal­
ance implied that current-dollar exports would be close
to current-dollar imports. The export deflator was also
assumed to grow at the same rate as the private GNP
deflator. By applying the resulting export deflator to
current-dollar exports, constant-dollar total exports
were derived. (Although the export and import defla­
tors were projected to grow by the same rate over the
period 1976 to 1990, the indexes with 1972 as a base
were different because of differing price rises for ex­
ports and imports between 1972 and 1976.)
This first projection of total imports and total exports
was then distributed among the 162 industries in the
system. A review of the industry level forecasts re­
vealed that, while import growth rates appeared rea­
sonable in light of past trends, export projections by
industry appeared unrealistically high for many sectors.
It did not seem likely that U.S. exports would match
the high rate of growth of the initial import projections
in order to yield a roughly equal current-dollar trade
balance through the 1980’s. It was decided at this point
to modify the aggregate forecast produced by the macro
model with a micro analysis of export and import trends
and conditions. Since the export data base was much
more extensive than the import base, the micro analy­
sis began with exports.
Industry projections. For most industries, a leastsquares trend was computed from 1963-74 export data
(or some subset of this data in the case of recent growth
accelerations or decelerations), and this trend line or
growth rate was simply carried out to 1980, 1985, and
1990. Where possible, the resulting export projection
was modified based on analysis of more current (1975
and 1976) export statistics or by relying on forecasts
from other agencies, such as the Department of Agri­
culture’s (DOA) projections of agricultural exports.16A
more detailed description of specific export assumptions
follows; industries not mentioned were projected based
strictly on historical trends through 1976.
The projections of food and feed grains exports de­
pended entirely on estimates from DOA. For wheat
and corn, the chief export components of the food and
feed grains industry, the long-range forecast showed a
return to a more normal growth path following the ab­
normally high export years of 1973 and 1974. Exports
of other agricultural products, chiefly soybeans and
meat products, also followed levels projected by DOA.
The soybean industry showed only small increases
through the 1980’s.

Aggregate projections. The first estimate of the aggre­
gate level of imports and exports was derived from the
macroeconometric model. An equation in the model
projected constant-dollar total imports as a function of
disposable income, lagged disposable income, relative
prices, and capacity pressure (measured by the ratio of



16 The projection model o f the Economic Research Service was run
using the BLS macro assumptions to estimate rates o f change in ex­
port levels for particular products.

16

Coal exports were assumed to rise slightly in the next
decade, despite recent declines. This projected turn­
around was based on the assumption that total U.S. coal
production would rise because of energy demands, and,
as output picked up, so would exports.
Ordnance and complete guided missile exports con­
sist mainly of military sales. These projections were
based on analysis of expected U.S. policy on military
sales contracts over the coming decade.
The “rest of the world” industry is the last for which
a specific export assumption was made. In the export
bill of goods, the rest of the world industry represents
receipts of income on U.S. assets abroad (about 75 per­
cent of total rest of world payments in 1973), travel in
the United States by foreigners (about 23 percent), and
some small miscellaneous items such as charity dona­
tions (about 2 percent). The investment portion was
projected by an equation based on 1960-73 constantdollar GNP. The travel portion was projected based
on personal consumption forecasts.
After this micro analysis, total constant-dollar exports
were summed for the years 1980, 1985, and 1990, con­
verted to current dollars, and equated to imports. Im­
ports were then deflated into constant dollars, and a
new distribution of this import control total was devel­
oped. Like exports, import projections at the industry
level were based mainly on past trends, except for those
industries discussed below.
Imports of the forestry and fishery products catego­
ry were projected to decline by the DOA due to the
new 200-mile U.S. fishing boundary. However, these
projections were modified somewhat to make the de­
cline less severe.
Crude petroleum imports were projected using a ratio
of imported crude petroleum to total crude consumed,
which was developed by DRI. This ratio was applied
to the projection of total crude petroleum imports to
slow dramatically between 1977 and 1980, and to pe­
troleum imports to slow dramatically between 1977 and
1980, and rise only slightly through the 1990’s. This
slowdown was based on an assumption that the United
States will be able to develop new domestic energy
supplies, including more production of oil from Alaska.
Imports of natural gas and refined petroleum were pro­
jected by the same method applied to crude petroleum.
Apparel import projections assumed a slight increase
in the ratio of imports to total output.
Projections of tire imports were based on the expec­
tation that imports would account for an increasing
share of total tire output, but that the import share
would not grow as rapidly as it did between 1967 and
1973.
Imports of miscellaneous rubber products consist
mainly of rubber and plastic footwear. The projections
for this industry reflect recent orderly marketing agree­
ments with Taiwan and South Korea, the chief export­
ers of rubber and plastic footwear, to limit the number



of shoes imported into the United States. The agree­
ments will remain in effect until 1981 and will cause
imports of miscellaneous rubber products to drop
sharply.
Leather footwear imports, on the other hand, are not
yet subject to any restrictive trade agreement. It was
assumed, however, that the import share of total leather
goods output would not grow as rapidly as in the past.
Typewriter imports, too, were projected on the ba­
sis of a slowly rising market share in contrast to rapid
market gains during the 1960’s and 1970’s. Imports were
expected to hold about a 30-percent share of total type­
writer and office equipment output throughout the
1980’s, about as much as in 1973.
A trade agreement with Japan was recently con­
cluded to limit the number of color television sets im­
ported from that country. This agreement, however,
had little impact on the aggregate import projections
of the radio/television industry because of the small
share (about 10 percent in 1973) of this industry’s total
output that consists of Japanese color television sets.
Balancing this import restriction was an assumption of
continued growth in video tape recorder imports. Over­
all, a constant import share of about 30 percent of to­
tal radio and television output was assumed to hold
through the 1980’s.
The projection of auto imports was also based on a
constant market share assumption. For motorcycle im­
ports, however, the market share was assumed to rise
slightly, from 53 percent in 1973 to 63 percent by 1990.
The projection of directly allocated imports was
based on several explicit assumptions. Noncompetitive,
intermediate products (about 37 percent of total direct­
ly allocated imports in 1973) were assumed to represent
a declining share of all imports, based on past trends.
Land travel abroad (28 percent of all directly allocated
imports in 1973) was projected as a function of income,
lagged income, and relative prices. The projections of
defense and nondefense purchases abroad (17 percent
and 0.4 percent, respectively, of all directly allocated
imports in 1973) assumed a reduction in troop strength
abroad through 1980 to a level which will be stable
through the decade. Nondefense expenditures abroad
were assumed to hold steady at the 1973 level through
1990. Government personnel consumption expenditures
abroad (in 1973, 8 percent of directly allocated imports)
were projected as a function of income and relative
prices. It was assumed that current levels of civilian
government personnel abroad would not change. Im­
ports from the rest of the world industry are payments
on foreign investment in the United States. A regres­
sion equation based on 1960-73 current-dollar GNP was
used to project this industry.
After individual industry imports were projected,
they were summed, converted to current dollars, and
compared to total current dollar exports. The micro
projections for both imports and exports were reviewed
17

and modified several times before the targeted current
dollar trade balance was attained. Informal feedbacks
to the macro level projections ensured consistency at
all levels of the projections.
State and local government

State and local government demand is defined as the
purchases of goods and services by all State and local
government units. Purchases include the compensation
paid to State and local government employees as well
as all purchases of goods and services. Purchases of
these units are less than total expenditures, which also
include transfer payments to persons, such as welfare
benefits and interest and subsidy payments. State and
local government purchases are separated by type of
function for analytical purposes. Major categories are
education, health, welfare and sanitation, public safety,
and all other. Each of these functional categories are
further distributed to a total of 20 different sublevels.
Each of the 20 is further divided into employment,
compensation, construction, and an all other purchases
category.
The projection of State and local government pur­
chases starts with overall control totals generated by
the macroeconomic model. Next, a State and local gov­
ernment submodel is used to project expenditures for 3
types of education and for 14 other functions.17 Histor­
ical data for 20 functions are maintained by BEA for
compensation, construction, and all other purchases.
These are separately projected based upon trends and
special analyses. The results of these 3 systems are then
compared and reconciled to provide acceptable levels
for the 20 separate State and local functions. Each of
the projected functional levels is allocated to individu­
al industries.
The macroeconomic model estimates of projected
State and local government purchases are consistent
with all macro assumptions and estimates, including
grants-in-aid. This model provides a purchase total for
each projected year, with subtotals for education and
for all other functions as a group. Both of these cate­
gories are also divided into compensation and all other
purchases.
The State and local government submodel predicts
expenditures and employment in current dollars for 17
functions. These functions, estimated from census data
by fiscal year, include: Elementary and secondary ed­
ucation, higher education, other education, highways,
health and hospitals, sewerage, water utilities, other
utilities, natural resources, police, fire, sanitation, pub­
lic welfare, local parks and recreation, general control,
financial administration, and other general expenditures.
The model structure was based upon data for the years
1961-71 but has since been updated to 1976. Equations
for each function were estimated for general expendi­
tures, capital expenditures, and employment. Expendi­
tures in the model are in current dollars and apply to



all outlays, not just purchases of goods and services.
Employment is in full-time equivalent units. The mod­
el is driven by four major groups of variables: Growth
in personal income; demographic data; grants-in-aid;
and an all other category that includes interest rates,
prices, and unemployment rates.
Commerce Department data provide the primary ba­
sis for projecting functional State and local government
purchases. Purchase data are available annually that can
be compiled into 20 different functions. These include
four educational functions: Elementary and secondary
education, higher education, libraries, and other educa­
tion. There are five health, welfare, and sanitation func­
tions: Health, hospitals, sewers, sanitation, and welfare.
Three functions are included in safety: Police, fire, and
corrections. Other functions include: General govern­
ment, highways, natural resources, parks and recrea­
tion, water and air terminals, public housing, public
utilities, and other enterprises. These functional catego­
ries were initially projected based upon historical trends
and expected changes.
The next step in the projections procedure was to
reconcile the results of the macro model, the submodel,
and the projections of the functional BEA data base.
In order to make the results of the submodel compara­
ble with the BEA functional series, several adjustments
had to be made. First, the results of the submodel were
deflated to a 1972-dollar base and converted to a cal­
endar-year format. Next, where possible, model func­
tions were made compatible with the data series on
functions by estimating what the proportion of a func­
tion (such as corrections or libraries) was to the larger,
more inclusive, model function. Model expenditures in­
cluded outlays for more than purchases of goods and
services and had to be adjusted. Where compatibility
was obtained, model results were used. Other functions,
such as other sectors and public housing, where the
submodel did not provide estimates, were simply ex­
trapolated from the BEA data series. Employment pro­
jections from the submodel were converted to compen­
sation and converted to the desired format. Compensa­
tion was also adjusted to agree with the macro model
controls. Construction purchases were obtained by est­
imating the proportion of capital expenditures that were
equal to new and used construction purchases by func­
tion. The results were then extrapolated toward the
projection years. As with total purchases and compen­
sation, construction purchases were converted to con­
stant dollars and calendar years. Ultimately, control to­
tals were determined for the 20 functions for compen­
sation, construction, and other purchases which were
compatible with the controls provided by the macro
model for education and noneducation.
17 Terry Morlan, “An Application o f Micro Data for Forecasting
Aggregate State and Local Government Expenditures and Employ­
ment,” Small Area Statistics Paper, GE-41, No. 3 (Bureau o f the Cen ­
sus, Aug. 1976), pp. 35-45.

18

These levels of functional purchases were distributed
to the purchases projected to be made from 162 differ­
ent industries. This was accomplished by projecting
base-period purchases for each function. Detailed pur­
chase data by function were obtained from BEA work­
sheets fro 1963 and 1967. Estimates for 1973 were de­
veloped using a variety of analytical techniques. These
years provided a limited basis for projecting detailed
industry purchases. The projections of purchases for
each function were then examined by annual rate of
change and changes in the distribution pattern by in­
dustry. Where changes in a projected year seemed ex­
treme, the projections were reexamined and revised if
necessary.

vilian and military employees. The levels are established
jointly by the analysts working in the macro and final
demand areas to insure levels consistent with overall
projections assumptions. Assumptions are of major im­
portance in the Federal sector since, in many cases, past
experience is not useful for projection. For example,
the projections always assume peaceful conditions with­
out international tensions. A contrary assumption of
war would result in unpredictably larger Federal pur­
chases and a much larger defense share. In these pro­
jections, defense was assumed to grow less rapidly than
GNP, as was the nondefense sector.
Regression equations were used to derive the total
purchases of the six subfunctions. These were modified
based upon expected program levels in the case of de­
fense and space. The six subfunctions were modified
until they came to the established macro totals. Real
compensation was also derived for each subfunction us­
ing regression equations. Historical data for defense and
nondefense new construction from 1952-76 were used
to derive regression equations to project purchases from
the six new construction industries for each major com­
ponent of the Federal sector; these two values were
then allocated to the six subfunctions based on histori­
cal trends.
Purchases, excluding compensation and new con­
struction, for each of the six subsectors were then dis­
tributed to the industries which composed the remain­
der of the economy. These distributions were made
largely on the basis of historical data. Historical bills of
goods were available for certain years for the defense,
space, and nondefense sectors. These were examined
for trend changes and for purchasing patterns in years
with conditions similar to those assumed for the pro­
jected years. Industry data for recent years, available
from the Bureau of the Census, were of particular im­
portance. From available data, a base-1973 bill of goods
was constructed for each of the six subfunctions.
In order to insure consistency of the data base with
the projections, it was necessary to incorporate both
the benchmark changes that became available since the
last projections and the conversions to 1972 deflators
from 1958 deflators. The 1967 input-output table was
available on a rebenchmarked basis along with a de­
scription of the conceptual and statistical changes that
were made. These two sources were used to rebench­
mark the 1963 table and to insure that the 1973 table
reflected the revised National Income and Product Ac­
counts. All past tables were converted to 1972 dollars.
Consistency in purchase data required that data after
1972, which were published on a new SIC basis, be ad­
justed to a 1967 SIC basis.
Data for recent years from the Bureau of the Census
and agency records provided recent trends. Trend data
were modified based upon expected program changes,

Federal Government

The Federal sector consists of purchases of goods
and services and of compensation paid by the Federal
Government. Purchases are a major part of total Fed­
eral expenditures, which also include grants, transfers,
and net interest. In the National Income and Product
Accounts, the Federal sector is divided into the major
components of defense and nondefense, which are fur­
ther split into purchases of goods and services and com­
pensation of military and civilian employees, all in cur­
rent dollars. In constant dollars, however, only pur­
chases of goods and services and compensation for the
Federal sector in total are available. For these projec­
tions, the defense sector was disaggregated to two sub­
sectors: Defense nuclear activities and other defense
purchases. In addition, foreign military sales were ex­
amined and projected jointly with the foreign trade an­
alyst. The nondefense sector was disaggregated into
four subsectors: Nondefense nuclear activities, Nation­
al Aeronautics and Space Administration, veterans hos­
pital medical care, and other nondefense purchases.
Federal purchases were projected on the basis of his­
torical purchase patterns, expected changes, and as­
sumptions and expectations of government priorities in
the future periods. Principal data sources were the De­
partment of Commerce input-output studies and vari­
ous unpublished records of agency purchases. Employ­
ment data were obtained from Civil Service Commis­
sion reports, BLS data, and the U.S. Budget appendixes.
Construction data were obtained from a Department of
Commerce series. As with other sectors, projected lev­
els of total purchases were derived from the macro
model. These were first broken down by functional ac­
tivities, and then projected to industry purchases.
The macro model levels of projected Federal pur­
chases are established exogenously in the process of
balancing supply and demand GNP. This model pro­
vides values for total purchases, total compensation of
military and civilian employees, and the number of ci­




19

particularly for defense and space. Bills of goods were
projected for each of the six subfunctions in 1972 dol­
lars, based upon trends and expected program changes.
Projected imports for the defense and nondefense sec­
tors were shifted to the foreign trade bills of goods.




Since most of the historical defense data bases includ­
ed foreign military sales, these were projected separate­
ly. Foreign military sales were assumed to rise slowly
to 1980, and then level off in constant dollars. These
sales were transferred to the export bill of goods.

20

Chapter 4. Intermediate
Demand Projections

After final demand purchases are projected, the in­
termediate demand, or the additional output of each in­
dustry that is required to support the projected final
demands, is calculated using interindustry models.
These models provide the framework for projecting
gross industry outputs, or the total of final and inter­
mediate sales required of each industry. The following
section describes the interindustry, or input-output, sys­
tem used in computing the projected outputs for 1980,
1985, and 1990.
An input-output transactions table is a rectangular
matrix in which the entries represent the transactions
of each sector with all other sectors. Each row of the
matrix shows the sales of the producing industry’s out­
put to every consuming industry, including itself, and
final demand. The sum of all the entries in a row gives
the industry’s output. Each column of the matrix shows
the input to the consuming industry from each indus­
try, including itself, necessary to produce its output.
The sum of the purchased input plus value added (re­
turns to capital, labor, and entrepreneurial ability) equals
the output of the industry.

there are three industries which do not actually exist.
These industries, called dummy industries, are includ­
ed to simplify the treatment of certain product flows.
Output of these dummy industries represents an aggre­
gation of commodities or services which are produced
in other industries. Generally, the information available
on the consumption of these commodities is for total
consumption only, so the products are treated as being
sold to the dummy industries, which are assumed to
sell them to the consuming industries. One such dummy
industry is Economic Growth (EG) sector 157, “office
supplies,” which buys office supplies from the producing
industries and then sells them to the consuming indus­
tries. The other two dummy industries which perform
similar functions are “business, travel, entertainment,
and gifts” (EG industry 156), and “scrap, used and sec­
ond-hand goods” (EG industry 158). Purchases from
the dummy industries generate employment or output
in the industries which actually produce the products
and services, rather than in the dummy industries.
In addition to being a dummy industry, the scrap in­
dustry presents a special problem. An increase in scrap
demand would, by virtue of the nature of the inputoutput model, generate output in other industries to
produce the scrap. To eliminate this problem, and to
make scrap generation a function of output, BEA adopt­
ed, and BLS followed, the following procedure: The
scrap industry is dropped from the table by adding the
scrap industry column entries to the diagonal cell of
the industry actually generating the scrap. In addition,
the scrap row, i.e., the input of scrap, is deleted from
the matrix. This creates an imbalance in the column
sum since the scrap input and output are rarely, if ever,
equal for any one industry. To correct this, another
row, entitled scrap and byproduct adjustment, is added
which is precisely the negative of the imbalance.
Economic Growth industry 160, “rest of the world,”
is modified to exclude travel receipts from foreign vis­
itors and personal remittances, in kind to foreigners.
This adjustment affects the industry detail of final de­
mand in the personal consumption expenditures and ex­
port categories.
The two government sectors, State and local and
Federal, are classified into two major categories, gov­
ernment enterprises and general government. All Fed­
eral, State, and local enterprises, i.e., agencies deriving
50 percent or more of their revenue from sales to the

Industry classification

Two benchmark input-output studies of the BEA
were used for this set of projected tables. Both the 1963
and the 1967 BEA tables were available with 367 sep­
arate industries. The industries in the SIC manual which
are contained within a sector may vary due to differ­
ences between the 1957 and the 1967 SIC, but this does
not affect the comparability of the two tables. The 162order tables used by BLS for the projections were ag­
gregated from BEA’s 367-order industry tables. The
current-dollar tables were aggregated directly from
BEA’s tables, while the constant-dollar tables were re­
priced at the 367-order level and then aggregated into
the 162 industry tables. The SIC content of the 162-or­
der industry sectoring plan used in the projections was
based on the 1967 interindustry classifications system.
The relationship between SIC and the Economic
Growth industry sectors is given in appendix G.
Industry conventions of the input-output

The 1963 and 1967 benchmark input-output studies
followed essentially the same definitions and conven­
tions, so the following description is applicable to both
years. In the input-output industry classification system,




21

public, are included in EG industries 150 through 154,
along with their respective employment and total re­
ceipts. EG industry 151, Commodity Credit Corpora­
tion (CCC), is modified by adding all of its intermedi­
ate inputs to the nondefense Federal Government final
demand category. The employment associated with the
CCC and the employment involved with general gov­
ernment activities, such as teaching or administration,
at both the Federal and State level, are included in EG
industry 159, “general government industry.”
EG industry 155, “directly allocated imports,” cov­
ers U.S. payments to foreigners for merchandise, serv­
ices, and factors of production. Items classified in this
industry have no equivalent domestic products or are
consumed in final demand. The service of domestics is
classified in EG industry 161, “households.”
In one respect, the input-output data developed by
BLS differ from the benchmark input-output studies of
BEA. The change from a total output base to a domes­
tic output base resulted in changes in the methodology
for intermediate demand as well as in final demand.
This difference required two changes in the transac­
tions data of the interindustry matrix, both of which
involved transferred imports. The transferred imports
industry was deleted from the transactions table and,
instead, incorporated into the final demand estimates.
Since the input-output data are valued in producers’
prices, the margins on the transferred imports had to
be subtracted from the trade and transportation indus­
tries transactions and included in the final demand
purchases.

mation was used to convert final demand expenditures
in purchasers’ value into producers’ value for the years
covered by these projections.
If the input-output table were stated in purchasers’
value, the connection between producing and consum­
ing industries would be lost. In a purchasers’ value ta­
ble, the trade sectors would purchase most products
from the producing industries and sell these products
to the consuming industries. In producers’ value, the
materials or services can be sold directly to the con­
suming industry. This method also has the added ad­
vantage of showing the relationships between the pro­
ducing industry and final demand categories on a com­
parable (producers’ value) basis. Using a producers’ val­
ue system eliminates the sale of products to the trade
sectors. The output of these trade sectors is, as a con­
sequence, measured in terms of total margins, i.e., op­
erating expenses plus profit.
/
Secondary product transfers
The transactions recorded in an input-output table
are based on data contained in the Census of Manufac­
tures, the transportation census, and other economic
censuses. The Bureau of the Census assigns establish­
ments to an industry based on the industry’s primary
output, that is, those products or services which pro­
duce the largest portion of its revenue. However, in
addition to primary products, many establishments also
produce other products which are different from the
primary output, called secondary products (or services).
Input-output work would be simplified if all output
of a given product or service were sold by a single in­
dustry. To accomplish the same thing, an artificial sale,
called a transfer, is introduced into the input-output ta­
ble; the industry which produces the output as a sec­
ondary product is shown as selling it to the industry
which produces it as a primary product. In this proc­
ess, the output of the primary product industry is in­
creased by the amount of this transfer since it becomes
an input, albeit an artificial input. For example, electric
power is produced in the “electric utility industry,” EG
industry 126, (the primary industry) and EG industries
152 and 154, “other Federal enterprises” and “other
State and local government.” In this situation, the elec­
tric power output of Federal Government and State
and local government power plants is transferred to the
private electric utility industry for distribution to the
consuming industries and final demand sectors. In this
way, the final demand for a product generates produc­
tion in both the primary producing industry and in the
industries where the product is secondary.
This transfer approach is used to distribute the out­
put of a number of industries. Three industries in the
table, the dummy industries, receive all of their output
as transfers from the producing industries. A table is
compiled, based on BEA’s data, which details the trans­
fers from one industry to another.

Valuation of transactions

Input-output relationships may be expressed either in
producers’ value or in purchasers’ value. In other words,
the inputs for making a product can be valued at the
price received by the producer or the price paid by the
purchaser. Both the BEA and BLS tables value inputs
purchased by a consuming industry at the price the
producer receives. Trade margins and transportation
costs associated with these inputs appear as direct pur­
chases by the consuming industry from the trade and
transportation industries. The purchase price for an item
is still contained within the matrix, but the demand is
divided into components which are purchased
separately.
Since the input-output table is in producers’ value,
all trade and transportation margins must be stated as
demand on these sectors in the final demand estimates.
In the estimates of final demand, margins are separated
from the estimates of purchases of goods and services.
These estimated margins are aggregated to be used as
the final demand estimates for the trade and transpor­
tation industries. Margin ratios associated with each
transaction and final demand category were developed
by BEA as part of the input-output studies. This infor­



22

An alternative treatment of transfers is used when
secondary production is large and inherently different
from the primary output of an industry, such as bakery
products produced by small retail establishments. In
these instances, the industries are redefined; the second­
ary products and their associated inputs are removed
permanently from the producing industries and assigned
to the primary industries. Therefore, the various goods,
services, and value-added components used to produce
the baked goods and the resulting output of those items
are taken from the trade sector and placed in the food
industry. Primary examples of the use of this alterna­
tive are the redefinition of trade margin output out of
all industries other than trade, and the redefinition of
service activities, especially auto repair, out of trade.

For the 1973 historical tables, BEA’s 1967 table was
updated to the latest year for which reasonably com­
plete data were available, and then repriced into 1972
dollars. Developing the 1973 tables allowed for incor­
poration of recent structural changes which provided
a better basis for projecting.
When an updated input-output table is developed for
a nonbenchmark year, such as 1973, only part of the
necessary data are available. Output levels by industry
were estimated from Bureau of the Census data and
other sources. These industry outputs were adjusted for
secondary product transfers to be consistent with in­
put-output conventions and deflated to 1972 prices. Fi­
nal demand and price data were taken from Depart­
ment of Commerce estimates, published annually in the
July issue of the Survey of Current Business. Final de­
mands were deflated and translated into industry de­
mands. All of these data were then converted from pur­
chasers’ to producers’ value with some adjustments for
changing trade, transportation, and insurance margins.
Developing an input-output table for a nonbenchmark
historical year (or a year that does not have a complete
set of economic censuses) is a problem of assembling
and restructuring existing data into proper form, al­
though estimating techniques must also be used.
The first step in developing the 1973 set of input-out­
put tables was to estimate output and final demand for
each industry. The existing data required a number of
adjustments due to input-output conventions and the
need to state input-output data in base-year prices. The
1967 BEA 367-order table was updated by scaling the
transaction values by the ratio of the industry’s 1973
current-dollar output to its 1967 current-dollar output.
Secondary product transfers were scaled by the output
ratio of their primary industry. The scaling of the 1967
current-dollar table yielded a first approximation of the
1973-current dollar table. The 1973 367-order table was
then deflated to 1972 dollars, using the same procedure
used to deflate the 1967 BEA table. Both current- and
constant-dollar 1973 tables were then aggregated to 162
order.
The aggregated constant-dollar transactions table was
divided by the independent output estimates to create
a coefficients matrix. These direct coefficients were re­
placed by the independently updated estimates for 1973,
where such estimates had been made. Estimates of 1973
coefficients were developed using the methods de­
scribed in the section on projecting coefficients. This
updated coefficients matrix was then used to compute
industry outputs using the Gauss-Seidel method.
The derived output, which had been computed from
the updated coefficients matrix, was compared to the
independent estimates of output. In this comparison, a
difference of plus or minus 2 percent was accepted
while larger differences were analyzed. During this
process, problems were uncovered in virtually every
area; final demand, deflators, output, and coefficients

BLS input-output system

The projections of the Office of Economic Growth
for 1990 involved nine sets of input-output tables: Six
sets of historical tables for 1963, 1967, and 1973; and
three sets of projected tables for 1980, 1985, and 1990.
The historical tables were done in both current and
1972 constant dollars, while the projected tables were
done only in 1972 dollars. The projections are done in
constant prices so that changes in output, demand, or
input-output coefficients represent changes in quanti­
ties. This use of base-year prices does not ignore changes
in relative prices because such changes are implicit in
projections of input-output relationships. The substitu­
tion of one material for another, due to relative price
change, may affect input-output coefficients in the same
way as technological change.
There are three sets of constant-dollar historical ta­
bles, two of which are for years that have input-output
tables developed by the Bureau of Economic Analysis.
For those 2 years (1963 and 1967), the BEA 367-order
tables were repriced and then aggregated to form the
BLS tables.
Repricing the BEA tables required several steps to
deflate each of the different parts of the tables. First,
the transaction values were summed to obtain output
for an industry. The outputs were deflated using un­
published 4-digit industry deflators that were developed
as part of the gross product originating data. Transfers
were repriced using the output deflator of the primary
producing industry. The transfers and sales to consump­
tion and investment were subtracted from total output
in both current and constant dollars. Then an implicit
deflator was constructed to reprice the intermediate
sales and the other types of final demand. A deflated
transactions value was then computed by adding the
deflated components—direct sales, transfers, margins,
and transferred imports. This repriced table was then
aggregated to form a 162-sector table, with adjustments
made to eliminate secondary product transfers between
the input-output sectors being collapsed into one
industry.




23

were each found to contribute to the difference in the
measures of output. Changes in the transportation and
trade margins that had occurred since the 1967 table
was constructed, but had not been captured in the ini­
tial estimates for 1973, caused differences in the output
measures.
Whenever a number of changes were made to the
underlying data, outputs were recomputed and the anal­
ysis of output differences was redone. If the appropri­
ate changes had been made, the total gaps, on the av­
erage, became progressively smaller, and many individ­
ual gaps were eliminated.
When time, resources, and/or data were exhausted,
a number of industries remained where the derived out­
put deviated by more than plus or minus 2 percent from
the independently estimated value of output. At this
point, an estimate was made of value added by indus­
try, or the difference between real output and the sum
of purchases of material and services inputs, in real
terms. By the nature of the input-output system, total
derived value added will always equal total final de­
mand. Further, the procedure used by BLS in estima­
ting the intermediate matrix and outputs is almost the
same as the double deflation procedure used in estima­
ting the gross product originating by industry in the
Bureau of Economic Analysis. Thus a rough reconcil­
iation of value added and GNP originating by industry
could be made. This could be done only at very aggre­
gative levels, so only a few, rather large, adjustments
were made as a result of this analysis.
In order to insure that the intermediate demand yield­
ed by the coefficients matrix is equal to the difference
between output and final demand, a balancing proce­
dure is used. This is an iterative procedure, known as
RAS, which will balance the transactions matrix while
independently estimated data are held constant.
If this scaling procedure is done accurately, the sys­
tem will be in balance, i.e.:

classifications and aggregative industry groups. In di­
viding the U.S. economy into 162 sectors, broad indus­
try groupings are created which are usually combina­
tions of 4-digit SIC industries. These large sectors in­
clude different commodities and services, each of which
has its own set of input requirements. If the production
of the various commodities changes at different rates,
thereby changing the product mix of the sector’s out­
put, then the total input coefficients of the sector may
also change. This can occur even if there are no tech­
nological changes in the producing industries.
Industry coefficients were projected as part of an in­
put-output system which consisted of four interrelated
parts: 1) The matrix of intermediate interindustry trans­
actions, which are converted to direct coefficients; 2)
the set of value added by industry; 3) the set of indus­
try final demands; and 4) the set of industry outputs.
Each part is dependent on the others, and all the parts
must be mutually consistent. Certain coefficients may
be projected independently, but the overall projection
of coefficients must be made in conjunction with the
projection of industry final demands.
When projecting input-output tables, all the problems
involved in updating a matrix exist as well as the need
to project changes. Industry structures, growth rates,
and production processes may change due to factors
unforeseen or imperfectly understood. Development of
an input-output system for a projected year requires
estimating all parts of the system and the integration of
those parts into a balanced system.
The projection of input-output coefficients involved
four different techniques. The coefficients for the ener­
gy sectors (EG industries 11, 60, 126, and 127) were
projected using a logit share model. A reweighting
technique was used to project the six construction in­
dustries’ coefficients. Other industry coefficients were
projected using specific data changes for selected co­
efficients. The fourth method of coefficient projection
was a general technique which focused on interindus­
try relationships with the added objective of achieving
a balanced system.
The projection of the energy coefficients was based
on the assumption that the different energy products
(coal, refined petroleum, natural gas, and electricity)
could be substituted for each other in the majority of
end-use applications. It was also assumed that the dis­
tribution of constant-dollar energy input-output coeffi­
cients would be influenced by projected changes in current-dollar energy costs after an adjustment for existing
stocks of energy-using equipment that could not be con­
verted to alternative fuels. The total energy input into
each manufacturing sector was defined as the sum of
the coal, refined petroleum, natural gas, and electricity
coefficients. This total energy input was distributed to
alternative fuels for the projected years based upon as­
sumptions about future energy prices. (The price as­
sumptions for this set of projections were discussed in

X - Y = AX = T,
where X is an n by 1 vector of domestic outputs,
where Y is an n by 1 vector of final demands,
where A is an n by n matrix of direct coefficients,
where T is an n by 1 vector representing the row sums of
the intermediate transaction matrix.

Projecting coefficients

The need to project input-output coefficients arises
because of changes that that have taken place or are
expected to take place in these coefficients. Technolog­
ical change is one of the important factors underlying
changes in coefficients from period to period. Other
factors, such as a change in product mix or prices, can
also cause significant changes in coefficients. Productmix problems are inherent in a system that uses fixed



24

ficients. A subsequent adjustment was made to reflect
the necessary adjustment of the existing capital stocks.
With the demand figures from the DRI energy model
used as a control, the individual coefficients were ad­
justed to reflect changes in the total (summed) energy
coefficients.
In the projection of the construction industry coef­
ficients, the method used was an attempt to adjust the
input coefficients for projected changes in the product
mix of the industries. The six new construction indus­
tries were further subdivided into 32 types of structures
purchased by final demand. This investment in struc­
tures was projected as part of final demand purchases.
The types of structures purchased determined the prod­
uct mix of the new construction industries, since their
entire output was sold to final demand. Shifts in the
product mix of the six construction industries were re­
vealed in changes in the purchases of different types of
structures. Using the output of a type of structure rel­
ative to the output of its construction industry, weights
were constructed which were used to aggregate the
1967 input coefficients for the six construction indus­
tries. This weighting was done for each projected year,
generating different industry coefficients as the distri­
bution of investment by final demand varied.
Other industries were projected using the changes in
the coefficients between 1963, 1967, and 1973. The
changes that occurred were analyzed to determine the
cause of the change. Possible reasons for changes in
coefficients included changing product mix, price
changes, and/or technological changes. Research was
done to determine the probability of past changes con­
tinuing and the possibility of new factors being intro­
duced which would affect an industry’s output.
The fourth technique used to estimate coefficients
was a general approach which took account of the oth­
er data and control totals at the industry level. In this
method, changes over time in the sales of an industry
to other sectors were analyzed; i.e., an industry was
viewed as a row in the conventional input-output table.
The 1973 coefficients matrix was adjusted using the
different techniques described above to generate a first
approximation of the projected tables. The projected
coefficients tables were combined with the projected
industry final demands to yield output. These outputs
were compared with independent estimates of output
and evaluated against past sector trends in output. This
evaluation process is described in the section on up­
dating the matrix.

the assumption section of the methodology.) This dis­
tribution technique used price elasticities estimated from
a pooled cross-sectional time series data base.
Energy data were obtained from the Fuels and Elec­
tric Energy Consumed tables of the 1963 and 1972 Cen­
sus o f Manufactures, and the 1974 Annual Survey o f Man­
ufactures. Quantity and price data were available for
the manufacturing industries, by State. These data were
distributed to the corresponding Economic Growth in­
dustries and converted to BTU’s. The following regres­
sions were then run for each industry:
Q gas

Q coal

/ P gas
\
\ P coal, time f

Q coal _ / P coal
\
Q elec
\ Pelec, timej
Q oil

Q coal

\
- / Poil
l P coal, time I

where Q = quantity
and P = price.
The resulting equations were used in conjunction
with energy prices projected by DRI, to project the
quantity ratios to 1980, 1985, and 1990. The ratios ob­
tained were converted from logarithms and used to pro­
ject the share of total fuel, in ratio form, that was to
be provided by each of the four energy sectors. These
data were developed for each manufacturing industry,
in each of the projected years. The following equations
were used:
i / fi , / Q gas Q coal V / Q oil
Q coal V Q coal1_TF
1l
\Q coal Q elec / \Q coal Q elec / QelecJ
Share of electricity
TE X

= TC

Share of coal

= TO

Share of oil

TC X“Qcoai = TG

Share of gas

TC X

Q coal

The resulting shares for the years 1980, 1985, and
1990 were used to distribute the summed energy coef­




25

Chapter 5.

Employment Projections

The industry employment projections consist of wage
and salary workers, unpaid family workers, and the
self-employed. These are estimates of the number of fulland part-time jobs required to meet the projected sales of
each industry to all final demand or intermediate users.
Historical wage and salary employment data are based on
the BLS establishment series of employment published in
Employment and Earnings. Unpaid family-worker jobs and
the number of self-employed are based on time series from
BLS’s Office of Productivity and Technology.
The principal input to the industry employment projec­
tions was the projected gross output in each industry. These
were obtained by multiplying total projected final demand
purchases by the projected input-output matrices. Gross
output includes the production needed ii* all supporting
industries as well as that required to satisfy final users.
Historical output data series were derived from a variety of
sources. Manufacturing data were obtained from the Census
o f Manufactures and Annual Surveys o f Manufactures.
Nonmanufacturing data were compiled from sources such
as the Minerals Yearbook, Agricultural Statistics, and
Business Income Receipts. These various output measures
were benchmarked to the output data provided in the BEA
input-output studies for 1963 and 1967 and to the matrix
for 1973. (A detailed description of the output and
employment data base is provided in Time Series Data for
Input-Output Industries; Output, Price, and Employment,
BLS Bulletin 2018 (1979).)
In addition to levels of output, the industry employment
estimates required projections of output per hour and
average annual hours worked. In each industry, the pro­
jected gross output was divided by an estimated outputper-hour ratio in order to arrive at total projected hours in
each industry. Total hours were divided by projected
average annual hours, yielding projected employment re­
quirements for each industry.

Output per hour

Several alternative methods of projecting industry pro­
ductivity were used: (1)A regression approach relating
output per hour to the domestic output of the industry and
a labor quality variable, defined as the ratio of blue-collar
workers to all workers; (2) a least-squares time trend of the
ratio, output per hour; (3) an adjustment method, adjusting
the historical least-squares time trend of labor productivity
by industry for the difference between projected and




historical output and labor-mix trends; and (4) an ad hoc
projection of the output-per-hour ratio. While the industry
projections did not completely conform to any particular
means, method (3) dominated. While the specific form of
the first three methods differed, their economic founda­
tions were identical, following a Cobb-Douglas production
function.
Output = A(t) + a labor + (1—a) capital services,
where A(t) is a technology variable which is approximated
by a time trend, and the variables are expressed as natural
logs.
Because of different assumptions about explanatory
variables or estimating techniques, the forms of the
respective labor-demand models varied. For example, if it is
assumed that capital services can be approximated by a
time trend, then the initial production function collapses to
two inputs, a time trend and labor. Several alternative
forms of the production functions yield the methods
described below.
Method 1, the regression approach, expresses the de­
mand for labor services, output per hour, as a function of
time, output, and the ratio of white-collar workers to total
workers (labor mix):
Output/hour = aO + al output + a2 time + a3 labor
mix
This approach accounts for the cyclical movements in
labor demand via the output variable and for the secular
movements via the time and labor-mix variables. The
equation assumes that capital stock and technology can be
approximated by a time trend. The equation, by industry,
is estimated with annual observations for 15 years and with
ordinary least squares. This approach was used infrequently
because the estimated coefficients were considered unrelia­
ble, principally due to a multicollinearity problem.
Method 2, a least-squares time trend, expresses the
demand for labor, output per hour, as a function of time
only:
Output/hour = a + a2 time
where output/hour is expressed in natural logs.
This approach assumes that the long-term trends in
industry output per hour can be approximated by a time
trend and that these trends are unaffected by long-term
fluctuations in output trends. This approach was also
26

infrequently used. Since long-term trends in output and
labor productivity do vary by subperiod, it is reasonable to
assume that projected trends will also vary. While output
fluctuations are an important explanatory variable of labor
productivity fluctuations, this method does not suggest any
mechanism for adjusting labor productivity trends for
output trends which differ by subperiods.
Method 3, the adjustment approach to projecting the
labor demand variable, output per hour, adjusts the
historical labor demand trend for changes between the
projected and historical output trends and for changes
between the projected and historical labor mix trends:

productivity grow? According to this model, 3.5 percent in
the next year. This 3.5 percent forecast change is derived as
follows: 2 percent (the historical productivity growth) plus
0.5 (the output coefficient) times 3 percentage points (the
acceleration in output).
Method 4, largely ad hoc or judgmental, was necessary in
three cases: When the historical and projected output
trends differed sharply, energy industries being good
examples; when the historical and projected output and
employment series were unrelated, such as the water
transportation and crude petroleum industries; and when
the historical employment and output series implied a
negative labor productivity trend, such as barber shops and
beauty salons.

Output/hour(p) = output/hour(h)
+ al [output(p) - output(h)]
+ a3 [labor mix(p) —labor mix(h)]

Average weekly hours

where p denotes projected trends, h denotes historical
trends, a 1958-76 least-squares growth rate.
The coefficients al and a3 used in this approach are
estimated in the following equation:
Output/hour(h) = al output(h) +a3 labor mix(h).
This approach duplicates method 1, except that crosssectional data rather than time-series data are used to
estimate the coefficients a(l) and a(3). This approach,
which was used most frequently, reflects several considera­
tions. First, many empirical results of models which are
based on time-series data alone yield results which contra­
dict classical economic theory; for example, a marginal
product of labor which exceeds unity. These results often
reflect the collinearity problems of time-series data. Sec­
ond, sufficient information is needed to discern the true
coefficient of a particular coefficient; otherwise the results
might represent spurious effects. A larger volume of data,
such as cross-sectional data, minimizes these spurious
effects.
The implicit assumption was that economic data are
composites of business, seasonal, and secular cycles. A
model which does not discern these cycles might yield
incorrect analyses. However, the annual data base of only
19 observations used loses much of its business cycle
component.
Because the last equation of method 3 was estimated
with cross-sectional data, industry-specific coefficients are
lost, but more degrees of freedom are gained. But the
growth model deals with industry projections. For example,
assume that the estimated output coefficient of this
equation, al, was 0.5. Next, suppose an industry’s output
and labor productivity over the past several years had been
growing, on the average, 5 percent and 2 percent, respec­
tively, per year, but over the next year, the industry
expects its output to grow 8 percent, or 3 percentage points
faster than its historical rate. How fast will the industry’s




27

Average weekly hours for each industry were projected
by first assuming that the hours paid for would change at
the same rate as they would for the sector to which the
industry belongs. The rates of change in average weekly
hours were then projected for each sector, such as
agriculture or manufacturing, based on the number of hours
paid historically. For the most part, the sector level
projections simply followed historical trends. Since a trend
approach seemed inappropriate in the case of mining, trade,
and other services, they were subjected to further analysis,
with different factors used.
Industry employment

The employment projections started with the inter­
industry model runs that produced gross output for each
industry in the projected years. These output levels were
evaluated in two ways before they were accepted. First, the
annual average rates of growth were compared with those in
historical periods, and the shares of an industry’s output
going to intermediate and final demand were compared
with those in the base year 1973 and in 1958, 1963, and
1967. Where significant variations were found, data and
analytical reasoning were rechecked. Acceptable output
levels for each of the 162 industries were divided in turn by
the projected output-per-hour ratios to obtain the total
projected hours in each industry. These total hours were
next divided by the projected average annual hours to
provide employment by industry requirements. The pro­
jected rates of change in industry employment were
compared with historical average annual growth rates, and
the projected industry employment levels were totaled and
compared with the aggregate labor force projections used in
the macroeconomic projections. Changes were made to
achieve correspondence, usually in the productivity esti­
mates. Finally, the industry employment estimates were
circulated for comment by occupational specialists in BLS,
and final adjustments were made.

Chapter 6. Planned Changes
in the Projections System

The final substantial change in specifications for the
next projections will occur in the residential and nonresidential construction demand blocks of the macro
model. Residential construction will be modeled in
terms of housing units, single-family versus multifami­
ly units, mortgage rates, and other variables. Nonresidential construction will be modeled by function, edu­
cational versus commercial versus industrial construc­
tion. Previously, these blocks were modeled with one
equation each.
Time and resources permitting, other respecifications
will deal with (1) business inventories, disaggregating
this single-demand component to separate components
for farm, automobile, and other goods; (2) exports and
imports, disaggregating these two demand components
to components for farm products, petroleum, capital
goods, and other goods; and (3) the monetary sector,
currently dealt with by assumption, changing to behav­
ioral, policy-oriented equations.
The data base of the macro model will be updated
to 1978, adding 3 years to the observations. Because of
the new factor demand and construction detail, the
number of variables included in the macro data base
will be expanded.
Finally, implicit in the factor-demand respecification
is a change in the solution procedure of the model. The
model is now balanced, or in equilibrium, when the gap
between supply GNP and demand GNP is zero. The
new model will be balanced when the demand for la­
bor equals the supply of labor (or a target unemploy­
ment rate).

A number of research efforts are now planned or un­
derway, within the Office of Economic Growth or un­
der its sponsorship, to develop techniques and the re­
quired additional data to improve projections of eco­
nomic growth.
Macro model

For the next set of projections, work is underway to
respecify selected blocks and reestimate the remainder
of the existing macro model. The respecification will
center on the production, employment, and business in­
vestment blocks. The new approach will stress the in­
terdependence of firms’ decisions on capital and labor
inputs to the production process, commonly called a
factor-demand approach. These capital-labor-produc­
tion tradeoffs will be modeled for five sectors—farm,
manufacturing, nonprofit institutions and households,
housing, and other private nonmanufacturing—using
factor-demand equations based on marginal productiv­
ity conditions and incorporating relative prices. The
current macro model treats employment and investment
independently and only disaggregates production for
farm and private nonfarm sectors.
This respecification is desirable for several reasons.
One explanation for the recent slowdown in labor pro­
ductivity trends is the shift in employment from highproductivity sectors to low-productivity sectors. The
movement of labor from farm to nonfarm employment
is an example of such a shift. A second reason offered
for the slowdown is the 1973-74 jump in energy prices
which affected labor usage and capital usage different­
ly. A third explanation is the shortfall in research and
development expenditures during the past decade
which, in turn, has led to a slowdown in technological
improvements. Testing these and other hypotheses re­
quires a model which can specify, by sector, the mix
or bundle of capital, labor, energy, and technological
inputs to the production process.
A second important respecification of the existing
model will deal with Federal transfer payments. These
payments go to many different groups, such as individ­
uals and State and local governments, and are under
many different programs, such as social security and
highway programs. Because of this diversity, industry
employment estimates would be affected differently.
Further, many of these programs are endogenous rath­
er than being implemented via policy decisions.



Factor demand in industry detail

The new factor-demand approach of the macro mod­
el will also be used at the industry level during the next
projections. In the current methodology, estimation of
rates of growth in output per hour and employment
relied primarily on past trends for most industries, and,
except for a time variable, no use was made of capital
requirements. Further, business investment relied pri­
marily upon past trends in investment products, for ex­
ample, trucks versus lathes or stamping machines, rath­
er than on existing capital stock in each industry. In
the next set of projections, the approach to these two
components, employment and investment, will stress
the interdependence of labor and capital requirements
28

in each industry. This new approach is, in part, possi­
ble because of the development of an industry-level
capital stocks data base.18
This new approach will require several substantial
changes in the interindustry solution procedure:
(1) The starting point for estimates of employment
and investment will be elasticities of substitution be­
tween labor and capital in each industry. These elastic­
ities, combined with projected industry outputs, will
yield projected industry labor and capital requirements.
(2) The estimates of labor requirements, or labor
hours, combined with an average workweek trend, will
yield projected industry employment or jobs. The ag­
gregate labor constraint upon these industry estimates
would be the sector labor requirements developed in
the revised macro model.
(3) The estimated capital requirements, or capital
services, combined with the existing capital stock less
discards, will yield projected industry investment
trends. The aggregate constraint upon these industry
investment trends would be sector capital requirements
developed in the revised macro model.
(4) The estimates of industry investment, combined
with an investment flow table, will yield projected in­
vestment by product, a final demand component.
(5) The estimates of investment by product, combined
with the other projected final demands, will yield pro­
jected output levels, when used with the projected in­
put-output table.
(6) A solution of this factor-demand model would
involve iterating between alternative output, invest­
ment, and employment mixes until an internal consist­
ency between the three elements is achieved. This in­
ternal consistency, by industry, is a capability not for­
mally contained in the existing model.
Macro and micro relationships
The factor-demand specification outlined for both the
macro and industry projections lends itself to an inter­




29

esting possibility, that aggregate economic growth
might be determined by the industry detail. Presently,
aggregate growth is determined by the macro model,
Y'hich abstracts from the economy’s detail. The exist­
ing model emphasizes those variables and processes
which are the more important for determining the
medium-term or 5- to 15-year growth path of the U.S.
economy. What is an appropriate model for fore-cast­
ing such variables as total consumption, total invest­
ment, or total employment? These are currently fore­
cast via individual econometric equations within the
macro model; a single equation yields a forecast total
consumption value; a second equation, total investment;
and so on. With inclusion in a macro model, the direct
and indirect responses of these endogenous variables to
changes in policy instruments or other exogenous var­
iables can be estimated. Explicit in these single-equa­
tion specifications is that the components of these ag­
gregate variables are all perfect substitutes for one
another.
This alternative specification would permit industry
and product detail to determine aggregate forecasts. In
the past, the model has depended upon the aggregate
variables for practical reasons; i.e., the industry and
product detail did not have sufficient observations to
yield stable estimates of time series coefficients. These
projections are based on annual observations, a tech­
nique which limits the degree of freedom; this is par­
ticularly critical when the number of historical obser­
vations barely exceeds the number of years being pro­
jected. These practical problems are being surmounted
and, as a consequence, this alternative specification will
be tested in the next set of projections.

18Capital Stock Estimates for Input-Output Industries: Methods a Data,
Bulletin 2034 (Bureau o f Labor Statistics, 1979).

Appendix A.
Macroeconomic Model:
Equations, Identities,
and Variables

Supply sector

1.

ECLF = LCF * (1.0 —U)

2.

ECJOBS = - 0.751 + 1.078 ECLF - 0.199U - 0.344 DM59 + 0.303 DM67 - 0.37 DM72
(-0.6) (51.1)
(-4.5)
(-1.7)
(1.2)
(-1.3)
R-squared = 0.999
D.W.
=1.458
Estimation period: 1947-76

3.

EMPE/POP = - 0.003 + 0.098 PUREC/POP
(-8.6) (75.2)
R-squared = 0.996
D.W.
=1.061
Estimation period: 1952-74

4.

In(EMPNE/POP) = - 4.469 + 1.921 In(PURNEC/POP) - 0.186 In(URBAN/POP)
(-14.2) (9.5)
(-0.3)
R-squared = 0.988
D.W.
= 0.462
Estimation period: 1952-74

4.

ENFJBS = ECJOBS - (EF + EMPE + EMPNE + EFJBS)

6.

AAHF = 1965.150 - 13.656 U - 9.037 U(t-1) + 27.893 FPOP + 7.623 TIME
(9.9)
(-2.1)
(-1.3)
(3.3)
(1.4)
R-squared = 0.877
D.W.
= 0.960
Estimation period: 1948-76

7.

AAHNF = 2392.730 - 7.728 U + 4.661 U (t-l) - 7.764 FLFPR - 3.365 TIME
(54.2) (-8.1)
(4.7)
(-5.5)
(-*.8)
R-squared = 0.994
D.W.
= 1.950
Estimation period: 1948-76

8.

MHF - AAHF * EFJBS

9.

MHNF = AAHNF * ENFJBS

10.

MHIF = MHF/MHF(1972)




30

11.

MHINF = MHNF/MHNF(1972)

12.

KEF = KEF(t—1) + IEF —DEF

13.

KENF = KENF(t-l) + IENF - DENF

14.

KSF = KSF(t—1) + ISF —DSF

15.

KSNF = KSNF(t—1) + ISNF —DSNF

16.

KINV = KINV(t—1) + IVCHG

17.

KHS = KHS(t—1) + IR —DRES

18.

IKF = (KSF + KEF)/(KSF(1972) + KEF(1972))

19.

IKNF = (KSNF + KENF)/(KSNF(1972) + KENF(1972)

20.

In(GNPFC/IKADJF) = 2.881 + 0.0002 U * U + 0.450 In(MHIF/IKADJF) + 0.013 T29
(27.7) (2.8)
(11.3)
(5.5)
R-squared = 0.957
D.W.
= 1.453
Estimation period: 1929-40,1946-74

21.

In(GNPNFC/IKADJNF) = 6.065 - 0.0002 U * U + 0.805 In(MHINF/IKADJNF) + 0.020 T29
(192.1) (-5.0)
(22.0)
(31.0)

22.

SERFCC = 0.922 + 0.855 * (EF * 13.588) - 1.716 CREEP2 + 0.122 TIME
(1.1)
(24.1)
(-2.1)
(7.5)
R-squared = 0.995
D.W.
= 0.940
Estimation period: 1947-74

23.

SERFMC = -0.221 + 1.090 (EMIPA * 6.613) - 6.334 CREEP2 - 0.085 TIME
(-0.3) (37.6)
(-3.4)
(-2.5)
R-squared = 0.989
D.W.
= 1.072
Estimation period: 1947-74

24.

SEREDC = 3.770 + 0.801 (EMPE * 8.288) + 0.219 TIME
(23.0) (39.6)
(7.1)
R-squared = 0.999
D.W
=1.281
Estimation period: 1947-74

25.

SERNEC = -0.707 + 0.852 (EMPNE * 8.407) + 0.247 TIME — 2.874 CREEP2
(-0.5) (12.5)
(5.2)
(-1.9)
R-squared = 0.999
D.W.
= 0.980
Estimation period: 1947-74

26.

GGP = SERFCC + SERFMC + SEREDC + SERNEC

27.

GNPTC = GNPFC + GNPNFC + GGP




31

Income Sector

28.

CPCDA = 15.048 - 2.840 U + 1.078(PRICE+PRICE(t-l)+PRICE(t-2)) + 0.166 GNPPK
(2.7)
(-3.3)
(3.1)
Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.523
R-squared = 0.993
D.W.
= 0.143
Estimation period: 1949-74

29.

CDACE = -10.353 + 0.051 KSTK(t-l)
(-24.3) (125.1)
where KSTK = KEF + KSF + KENF + KSNF
R-squared = 0.998
D.W.
= 0.143
Estimation period: 1947-74

30.

CDACB = -7.089 + 0.036 KSTK(t-l) + 0.007 KSTKDl(t-l) + 0.008 KSTKD2(t-l)
(-3.1) (10.2)
(5.5)
(7.2)
where KSTK = KEF + KSF + KENF + KSNF
and D1 is entered from 1954 on and D2 from 1962 on.
R-squared = 0.995
D.W.
=1.442
Eatimation period: 1947-74

31.

CPTFD = 2.925 + 0.731 TRCP * (CPCDA - CDAKB)
(6.0) (48.7)
R-squared = 0.989
D.W.
= 0.824
Estimation period: 1947-74

32.

DIV = -0.424 + 1.067 D lV (t-l) + 0.106 (IFC - IFIX) * DEFI
(-1.4)
(57.2)
(3.6)
where IFIX = IEF + ISF + IENF + ISNF
R-squared = 0.993
D.W.
=1.472
Estimation period: 1947-74

33.

IVA = 2.751 - 97.123 ((DGNPP - DGNPP(t-l))/DGNPP(t-l)) + 0.099 IVCHG - 0.021 KINV(t-l) - 20.380 EMBGO
(1.6) (-3.3)
(1.0)
(-1.6)
(-7.5)
R-squared = 0.890
D.W.
= 3.203
Estimation period: 1948-75

34.

IFK = CPCDA - (CPTFD + CPTST)

35.

UCP = IFK - (CDAKE - CDAKB) - I V A - DIV

36.

CCANCC = 1.787 + 0.025 KHS(t-l) + 0.0002 KHS(t-l) * TIME
(0.4) (3.7)
(1.1)




32

R-squared = 0.993
D.W.
= 0.253
Estimation period: 1947-74
37.

CCANCK = CCANCC * DFNCCA

38.

IBTFD = 6.134 + 0.004 GNPPK + 0.026 TRG * FU + 0.774 DMKW
(23.2) (2.8)
(8.5)
(2.0)
R-squared = 0.984
D.W.
= 1.470
Estimation period: 1947-74

39.

IBTST = 4.284 + 0.710 (GDSTK + SERSTK + TRSTP - GAK(t-l) - 0.527 U
(4.1) (107.0)
(-2.3)
R-squared = 0.998
D.W.
= 1.223
Estimation period: 1948-75

40.

IPFD = 1.466 + 0.004 (13Y5Y * DFP) + 0.002 (13Y5Y * DFP)(t-1) - 0.0004 (13Y5Y * DFPXt-2)
(9.1) (10.0)
(2.8)
(-0.7)
R-squared = 0.993
D.W.
= 1.127
Estimation period: 1952-75

41.

SICE = 0.431 + 0.529 SICTOT
(3.4) (167.7)
R-squared 0.999
D.W.
= 0.376
Estimation period: 1947-74

42.

SICU = 0.508 + 0.392 ((CEP + GGP) - SICE * TRU)
(5.0) (27.3)
R-squared = 0.966
D.W.
= 1.445
Estimation period: 1947-74

43.

SICO = 1.187 + 0.900 TRO * CSIC * ((CEP + GGP) - SICE)) * WB/MFI
(2.2) (49.8)
R-squared = 0.990
D.W.
= 0.808
Estimation period: 1947-74

44.

SICST = -0.070 + 0.136 (SERSTK - (ES * SICE/(ECLF+EMBLS)))
(-1.5) (129.5)
where ES = EMPE + EMPNE
R-squared = 0.999
D.W.
= 0.789
Estimation period: 1947-74

45.

SICTOT = SICU + SICO + SICST + SICFD




33

46.

IPC = -2.325 + 0.019 PI + 0.419 13M
(-8.7) (16.3)
(2.6)
R-squared = 0.989
D.W.
= 0.429
Estimation period: 1947-74

47.

PI = GNPTK - CDAKE - CCANK - IBTFD - IBTST - SD + SLSFD + SLSST - CPIVA + (CDAKE - CDAKB)
SICTOT + TRAN + DIV + IPFD + IPST + IPC

48.

In(MFI) = 6.833 + 0.865 In(1.0 -(U /100.0)) + 1.052 In(GNPTK/(ECLF + EMBLS)) +1.291 In((PI + SICTOT (87.5) (2.3)
(78.2)
(5.2)
SICE)/GNPTK)
R-squared = 0.998
D.W.
=1.679
Estimation period: 1947-74

49.

PTFD = -5.865 + 0.051 PI + 0.362 PI * TRMFI
(-4.7) (2.9)
(3.8)
R-squared = 0.992
D.W.
=1.373
Estimation period: 1947-74

50.

PTST = -4.431 + 0.029 PI + 0.532 PTST(t-l) - 0.253 TIME
(-2.5) (2.4)
(2.2)
(-1.9)
R-squared = 0.996
D.W.
= 1.705
Estimation period: 1947-74

51.

DPIK = PI - (PTFD + PTST)

52.

PS = -26.329 + 0.080 DPIK - 0.321 I3Y5Y + 20.070 DFDPI/DFDPI(t-1)
(-0.8)
(8.5)
(-0.3)
(0.6)
R-squared = 0.959
D.W.
=1.947
Estimation period: 1947-74

53.

PCEK = DPIK - PS - IPC - PTR

Demand sector

54.

PCED = -80.295 + 0.190 (PCEC) + 0.293 IR (t-l) - 0.490 U + 59.916(DPIK/DPIK(t-l))/DFDPI/DFDPI(t-l))
(-3.3) (18.5)
(2.3)
(-0.9)
(2.5)
-1098.710 IPC/DPIK
(-5.3)
where PCEC = PCEK/DFDPI
R-squared = 0.990
D.W.
= 1.468
Estimation period: 1947-74

55.

PCEN = 50.886 + 0.319 (PCEC) + 770.141 IPC/DPIK - 0.460 U
(26.7) (69.5)
(6.0)
(-1.3)




34

where PCEC = PCEK/DFDPI
R-squared = 0.999
D.W.
= 0.964
Estimation period: 1947-74
56.

PCES = -38.429 + 0.397 (PCEC) + 0.598 U + 0.050 KHS
(-11.1) (11.2)
(1.2)
(2.4)
where PCEC = PCEK/DFDPI
R-squared = 0.999
D.W.
=1.211
Estimation period: 1947-74

57.

IENF = -7.301 + 0.190 IFC + 0.732 IENF(t-l) + 0.0002 KENF(t-l) + 118.350 (IFC/KENF + KSNF)/U)(t-1)
(-1.9) (2.9)
(4.2)
(0.01)
(0.8)
+0.083 (GNPNFC - GNPNFC(t-l))
(2.7)
R-squared = 0.988
D.W.
= 1.349
Estimation period: 1947-74

58.

ISNF = 0.604 + 0.017 GNPNFC + 0.618 ISNF(t-l)
(0.5) (2.3)
(3.8)
R-squared = 0.967
D.W.
=1.161
Estimation period: 1947-74

59.

IVCHG = -42.234 + 0.166 (GNPFC + GNPNFC) -Q.424 KINV(t-l)KINV(t-l) + 13.182/U- 1.197 TIME
(-7.1)
(6.8)
(-7.0)
(1.2)
(-2.8)
R-squared = 0.820
D.W.
1.742
Estimation period: 1947-74

60.

IR = -68.090 - 4.921 13Y5Y + 1.448 HOUSE + 4.643 DPIC/HOUSE/
(-7.8) -(4.1)
(5.7)
(3.8)
R-squared = 0.945
D.W.
=1.381
Estimation period: 1929-40,1946-74

61.

M = - 6.165 + 0.027 DPIC(t-l) + 0.033 (DPIC - DPIC(t-1)) + 0.383 ((DEFM/DFDPI) - (DEFM(t-1)/DEDPI(t-1)))
(-1.9)
(2.0)
(1.1)
(0.3)
+ 5.123 CPSQR + 0.841 M (t-l)
(2.1)
(7.9)
R-squared = 0.996
D.W.
= 1.052
Estimation period: 1947-74

62.

PURFDC = SERFMC + SERFCC + GDFDC

63.

PUREC/POP = -0.184 + 0.071 ((GNPFC + GNPNEC)/POPXt-l) + 0.513 (GAC * GPCED/POP) + 0.474 SCHL/POP
(-7.7) (13.3)
(1.3)
(5.0)




35

R-squared = 0.991
D.W.
=1.663
Estimation period: 1953-74
64.

PURNEC/POP = -0.089 + 0.085 ((GNPFC + GNPNFC)/(POP)(t-l)
(-1.4) (4.4)
+ 0.607 (GAC * (1.0—GPCED)/POP) + 0.003 U
(2.1)
(0.9)
R-squared = 0.973
D.W.
0.538
Estimation period: 1953-74

Price/wage sector

65.

In(DGNPP) = 0.560 + 0.867 In(ALUL(t-l)) + 0.132 In(WPICR) - 0.039 In(U)
(17.0) (40.7)
(5.7)
(-2.1)
R-squared = 0.994
D.W.
=1.214
Estimation period: 1948-75

66.

CEPM = 4.994 + 60.286 (((GNPFC+GNPNFC)/(MHF+MHNF))—
(4.7)
(3.8)
((GNPFC+GNPNFC)/(MHF+MHNF))(t-1))/((GNPFC+GNPNFC)/(MHF+MHNF))(t-1)
+119.426 ((DFDPI—DFDPI(t—l))/DFDPI(t—l ) —0.799 U
(11.8)
(-4.5)
R-squared = 0.860
D.W.
=2.091
Estimation period: 1947-76

67.

CPH = CPH(t-1) * CEPM

68.

CEP = CPH * (MHF + MHNF)

69.

ALUL = CEP/(GNPFC + GNPNFC)

70.

PRICE = percent change DGNPP - CEPM

71.

DEFI = -0.008 + 1.005 DGNPP
(-0.3) (34.9)
Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.723
R-squared = 0.997
D.W.
=1.661
Estimation period: 1948-74

72.

DFIV= 0.212+0.810 DGNPP
(1.8) (5.5)
Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.159
R-squared =0.611
D.W.
=1.890
Estimation period: 1948-74

73.

DEFRI = -0.272 + 1.229 DGNPP

( - 1.6) ( 12.2)




36

Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.968
R-squared = 0.993
D.W.
=1.836
Estimation period: 1948-74
74.

(DFDPI - DFDPI(t -1 ))/DFDPI(t -1)
= 0.003 + 0.901 (DGNPP-DGNPP(t-l))/DGNPP(t-l))
(1.7) (19.7)
Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.189
R-squared = 0.947
D.W.
=1.558
Estimation period: 1948-74

75.

DEFX = 0.003 + 0.491 DGNPP + 0.536 DEFM
(0.2)
(12.8)
(23.2)
Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.428
R-squared = 0.997
D.W.
=1.991
Estimation period: 1949-74

76.

DFGDS = -0.584 + 1.529 DGNPP
(-6.7) (23.2)
Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.953
R-squared = 0.998
D.W.
= 2.096
Estimation period: 1948-74

77.

DFGDF = -0.016 + 1.021 DGNPP
(-0.8) (38.8)
Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.260
R-squared = 0.990
D.W.
=1.651
Estimation period: 1948-74

78.

DFCCA = 0.028 + 0.818 DEFI + 0.163 DGNPP
(1.5) (9.4)
(1.8)
Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.872
R-squared = 0.999
D.W.
=1.571
Estimation period: 1948-74

79.

DFNCCA = -0.014 + 0.284 DFDPI + 0.755 DGNPP
(-0.4) (0.5)
(1.2)
Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.789
R-squared = 0.996
D.W.
=1.124
Estimation period: 1948-74

80.

DEFSFC = DEFSFC(t-l) * (% ch DFDPI)

81.

DEFSFM = DEFSFM(t -1) *(%ch DFDPI)




37

82.

DEFSS = DEFSS(t-l) * (%ch DFDPI)

83.

DEFGA = DEFGA (t—1) * (% change in DGNPP)

84.

DGNPT = weighted average of DGNPP, DEFSFC,
DEFSFM, and DEFSS

85.

GNPDC = PCED + PCEN + PCES + IEF + IENF + ISF + ISNF
+ IVCHG + IR + EXPRT -M + PURFDC + PUREC + PURNEC

86.

GAP = GNPTC - GNPDC
DEFGA
DEFI

Explanation of variables

♦denotes an exogenous variable.
DEFM*
AAHF
AAHNF
ALUL
CCANCC
CCANCK
CDACB

CDACE
CDAKB
CDAKE
CEP
CEPM
CPCDA
CPH
CPIVA
CPSQR
CPTFD
CPTST*
CREEP2*
CSIC*
DEF*

Average annual private farm manhours,
establishment basis
Average annual private nonfarm manhours,
establishment basis
Unit labor cost
Noncorporate capital consumption allow­
ances, constant dollars
Noncorporate capital consumption allow­
ances, current dollars
Corporate depreciation allowances, constant
dollars, book value definition (without
CCA)
Corporate depreciation allowances, constant
dollars, with capital consumption adjust­
ment (CCA),(CDACB*DFCCA)
Corporate depreciation allowances, current
dollars, without CCA (CDACE*DFCCA)
Corporate depreciation allowances, current
dollars, with CCA (CDACE*DFCCA)
Compensation of employees, private econ­
omy
Percent change in current dollars compensa­
tion per hour in the private sector (B66)
Corporate profits + capital depreciation
allowance —inventory valuation adjust­
ment
Private compensation per hour (67L, 68)
Corporate profits + inventory valuation
adjustment (CPCDA+IVA-CDAKE)
Capacity pressure, defined as (((Actual
GNP/Potential GNP)-0.98)**2)
Federal corporate profits taxes
State and local (S&L), corporate profit
taxes
Variable to account for unwarranted grade
enhancement during the 1947-69 period
Social security coverage as a percent of paid
employment
Discards of producer durable equipment
(PDE), farm




DEFRI
DEFSFC
DEFSFM
DEFSS
DEFX
DENF*
DFCCA
DFDPI
DFGDF
DFGDS
DFIV
DFNCCA
DFP
DGNPP
DGNPT
DIV
DMKW*
DM59*
DM67*
DM72*
DPIC
DPIK
DRES*
DSF*
DSNF*
ECJOBS
ECLF
EF*

38

Deflator for Federal grants-in-aid
Fixed nonresidential investment deflator,
1972=100
Imports of goods and services deflator,
1972=100
Residential structures deflator, 1972=100
Federal civilian compensation deflator
Military compensation deflator
S&L compensation deflator
Exports of goods and services deflator,
1972=100
Discards of PDE, nonfarm
Corporate consumption allowances deflator
Disposable personal income deflator
Federal purchases less compensation defla­
tor 1972=100
S&L purchases less compensation deflator,
1972=100
Change in business inventories deflator,
1972=100
Noncorporate consumption allowances
deflator
Federal debt proxy (see text)
Private GNP deflator, 1972=100
Total GNP deflator, 1972=100
Net corporate dividend payments
Korean War dummy = 1 for 1951-53 (38)
Establishment survey definitional shift = 1
from 1959
Establishment survey definitional shift = 1
from 1967
Establishment survey definitional shift = 1
from 1972
Disposable personal income, constant dol­
lars (DPIK/DFDPI)
Disposable personal income, current dollars
Discards of residential structures
Discards of structures, farm
Discards of structures, nonfarm
Civilian employment establishment basis
Civilian employment, labor force basis, age
16 and over
Average number of full- and part-time Fed­
eral Government general employees

EFJBS*
EMBGO*
EMBLS*
EMIPA*
EMPE
EMPNE
ENFJBS
EXPRT*
FLFPR*
FPOP*
FU*
GAC*
GAK
GAP
GDFDC*
GDSTK

GGP
GNPDC
GNPFC
GNPNFC
GNPPK
GNPTC
GNPTK

GPCED*
HOUSE*
IBTFB
IBTST
IEF*
IENF
IFC
IFK
IKF
IKADJF
IKADJNF
IKNF
IPC
IPFC
IPST*
IR

ISF*
ISNF

Private farm employment, establishment
basis
Oil embargo dummy = 1 in 1973-74
Level of the Armed Forces, BLS basis
Military employment including reserve
forces (NIPA basis)
S&L government employment in education
S&L government employment in noneduca­
tion
Private nonfarm employment establishment
basis
Exports of goods and services
Female labor force participation rate, age
16 and over
Total farm population
Motor fuel usage
Federal grants-in-aid to S&L government,
constant dollars
Federal grants-in-aid to S&L government,
current dollars (GAC*DEFGA)
Supply GNP less demand GNP, constant
dollars
Federal purchases of goods and services less
compensation, constant dollars
S&L government purchases of goods and
services less compensation, current dol­
lars ((PUREC+PURNEC)-(SEREDC+
SERNEC))*DFGDS
Gross government product, constant dollars
Demand-side GNP, constant dollars
Farm GNP, constant dollars
Private nonfarm GNP, constant dollars
Private GNP, current dollars ((GNPFC+
GNPNFC)*DGNPP)
Total supply-side GNP, constant dollars
Total supply-side GNP, current dollars
(GNPPK+SERSTK+(SERFCC*DEFSFC)
+(SERFM *DEFSFM))
Education’s share of Federal grants
Number of households
Federal indirect business taxes
S&L indirect business taxes
Investment in PDE, farm
Investment in equipment, nonfarm
Internal funds, constant dollars (IFK/DEFI)
Internal funds, current dollars
Index of farm capital stock, 1972=100
Farm index of capital adjusted for utilization
(IKF*(1.0-U»
Nonfarm index of capital adjusted for utili­
zation (IKNF*(1.0-U»
Index of nonfarm capital stock, 1972=100
Interest paid by consumers
Net interest paid by Federal Government
S&L net interest payments
Investment in residential structures




IVA
IVCHNG
I3M*
I3Y5Y*
KEF
KENF
KHS
KINV
KSF
KSNF
LFC*
M
MFI
MHF
MHIF
MHINF
MHNF
PCED
PCEK
PCEN
PCES
PI
POP*
PRICE
PS
PTFD
PTR*
PTST
PUREC
PURFDC
PURNEC
SCHL*
SD*
SEMP*

SEREDC
SERFCC
SERFMC
SERNEC
SERSTK
39

Investment in nonresidential structures, farm
Investment in nonresidential structures, non­
farm
Inventory valuation adjustment
Change in the stock of business
Yield on 3-month government bills
Yield on 3- 5-year government bonds
Stock of PDE, farm
Stock of PDE, nonfarm
Stock of residential structures
Stock of business inventories
Stock of structures, farm
Stock of structures, nonfarm
Civilian labor force, 16 years and over
Imports of goods and services
Median family income
Private farm manhours, establishment basis
Index of farm manhours, 1972=100
Index of nonfarm manhours, 1972=100
Private nonfarm manhours, establishment
basis
Personal consumption expenditures, durable
goods, constant dollars
Personal consumption expenditures, current
dollars
Personal consumption expenditures, non­
durable goods, constant dollars
Personal consumption expenditures, services,
constant dollars
Personal income
Total noninstitutional population including
Armed Forces stationed abroad
Labor price/cost spread, private economy
Personal savings, current dollars
Federal personal income tax payments
Personal transfers to foreigners
S&L personal income tax payments
S&L purchases, education, constant dollars
Federal purchases of goods and services,
constant dollars
S&L government purchases, noneducation,
constant dollars
Total school enrollment, ages 5-34
Statistical discrepancy
Ratio of full-time equivalent employees in
the service industries to full-time equiva­
lent private employment
S&L government education compensation,
constant dollars
Federal civilian compensation, constant
dollars
Federal military compensation, constant
dollars
S&L noneducation compensation, constant
dollars
S&L compensation, current dollars

SICE .
SICFD*
SICO
SICST
SICTOT
SICU
SLSFD*
SLSST*
TIME*
TRAN*

Employer contributions for social insurance
Contributions for other Federal social insur­
ance programs
OASDHI contributions
State and local insurance funds
Total social insurance contributions
Social insurance contributions for unem­
ployment insurance
Subsidies less current surplus of Federal
Government enterprises
Subsidies less current surplus of S&L gov-ernment enterprises
Time trend, 1946 = 0
Total government transfer payments to
persons




TRCP*
TRG*
TRMFI
TRO*
TRSTP*
TRU*
T29*
U*
UCP
URBAN*
WB*
WPICR*

40

Federal corporate profits tax rate
Federal tax rate on gasoline
Federal tax rate on median family income
Tax rate for OASDHI
S&L government transfers to persons
Average employer contribution rate for un
employment insurance
Time trend, 1928 = 0
Unemployment rate of the civilian labor
force, age 16 and over
Undistributed corporate profits
Total population living in urban areas
Wage base for OASDHI
WPI for crude materials for further process­
ing (1972=100)

Appendix B. Potential
Economic Growth
Assessment System for the
United States (PEGASUS)

PEGASUS is a software system designed to formalize
and automate the links among the various projection
processes in the BLS Economic Growth model such as the
aggregate economic projection, distribution of final demand
by industry, and the determination of industry employ­
ment and output estimates. The system insures consistency
across segments of the process and allows for rapid
inclusion of data revisions or changes in assumptions. The
purpose of this appendix is to present a general description
of the capabilities of PEGASUS and a list of available
documentation.
PEGASUS is divisible into three segments, or groups of
programs. These are the solution segment, data base
management, and the data display and analysis segment.
The solution segment allows for a continuous solution of
the entire projection model or for solution of discrete
elements of that model. Models or processes currently
available are as follows:

base management segment. The following reports are
currently available:
1. Aggregate analysis—12 tables presenting various as­
pects of the aggregate data are produced. Many
analytical ratios and user selected compound growth
rates accompany each table.
2. Industry summary package-final demand by major
national income categories as well as total and
intermediate output are produced for 3 historical and
3 projected years for each industry. Either growth
rates or percent distributions of output may be
chosen by the user. Major sector aggregations are also
presented.
3. Industry employment/output package—several cate­
gories of employment and total output series are
presented for each industry with selected growth
rates. Major sector aggregates are also presented.
This segment of PEGASUS also contains more analyti­
cally oriented report generators. Currently, two options are
available.

BLS macroeconomic model
Houthakker/Taylor consumption model
Investment by consuming industry
Industry final demand bridge
Input-output solution
Industry employment, hours, and productivity model

1. Simulation analysis—actual and estimated time series,
a plot of these series over time, and selected summary
statistics are presented for a selected range of
variables and years.
2. Aggregate multiplier analysis-multipliers of selected
variables on all aggregate variables are computed for a
specified year. A summary table presents the multi­
pliers of all selected variables on major demand GNP
components.

Individual portions of the process may be solved alone as
long as exogenous data from prior steps are available in the
data base. The solution segment of the model also allows
for dynamic constant adjustment terms or for the override
of all behavioral equations.
The data base management segment allows the user to
update or otherwide modify either the PEGASUS time
series data base or the bridge/input-output matrix data
bases. Commands are also available to copy or print all or
part of the various data bases.
The data display/analysis segment allows for more
specialized presentation of data than is available in the data




Documentation of PEGASUS is available in four vol­
umes: 1) System Review; 2) Source Listings; 3) Historical
Data Sources; and 4) Behavioral Equations. This material is
available on request from the Bureau of Labor Statistics,
Office of Economic Growth. The system itself, which is
currently operational on the IBM 370, is available on
magnetic tape for the cost of generating such a tape.

41

Appendix C. Personal
Consumption Model Equations

Variable 201 - CAR
CAR-CAR(-l) = -144.379 + 0.239 (PCE-PCE(-l))-0.089 (PCE(-l)-PCE(-2)) -0.071 (PCE(-2)-PCE(-3))
(.258)
(8.620)
(2.761)
(2.536)
R-squared = 0.701
D.W.
= 2.343
CAR — new cars, net used cars, trucks, recreation vehicles and trailers
PCE — personal consumption expenditures; national income and product accounts
Variable 202 - TBA
TBA = -9015.0 + 212.624 * (YR)
TBA — tires, tubes, accessories, and parts
YR — year (e.g., 1976=76)
Variable 203 - FNR
FNR/POP = 1.413 + 0.774 (FNR(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.311 (PCE/POP) - 0.029 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l))
(1.963) (9.743)
(111.071)
(8.008)
R-squared =0.98
D.W.
=1.4
FNR — furniture and bedsprings
POP —total population
PCE — personal consumption expenditures, national income and product accounts
Variable 204 - APP
APP/POP = -23.822 +0.018 (PCE/POP) + 0.019 (PR-APP)-1.645 (D)
(3.972) (12.858)
(1.166)
(2.069)
R-squared = 0.9852
D.W.
= 0.576
APP
PCE
POP
PR-APP
D

—kitchen and other household appliances
—personal consumption expenditures
—total population
—relative price of APP
—dummy variable 193041 = 1

Variable 205 —CHN
CHN/POP = 26.232 + 0.323 (CHN(-l)/(POP(-l))+ 0.004 (PCE/POP) -0.252 (PR-CHN)
(81.975) (4.359)
(7.378)(6.142)
Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.461
R-squared
= 0.9647
D.W.
= 1.51




42

CHN
POP
PCE
PR—CHN

—china, glassware, tableware, and utensils
—total population
—personal consumption expenditures
—relative price of CHN

Variable 206 - RAD
RAD/HH = 12.749 + 0.008(PCE/HH) -0.189(PR-RAD) + 138.351 (COLOR)
(0.386) (2.940)
(3.512)
(18.479)
R-squared = 0.9936
D.W.
= 0.8223
RAD
PCE
HH
PR-RAD
COLOR

- radio, television sets, and musical instruments
—personal consumption expenditures
—households
—relative price of RAD
—color television sets in HH

Variable 207 —ODH
ODH/POP= -4.262+ 0.916 (ODH(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.023 (PCE/POP)- 0.020 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l))
(1.544) (11.432)
(4.134)
(3.088)
R-squared = 0.9878
D.W.
=1.1641
ODH —other durable housefurnishings
POP —total population
PCE —personal consumption expenditures
Variable 208 - JRY
JRY/POP = 0.839 (JRY(—1)/POP(—1)) + .0070 (PCE/POP)- 0.0056 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l)) - 0.0434 (PR-JRY)
(10.622)
(4.758)
(3.289)
(3.445)
+ 0.034 (PR-JRY(-1))
(2.774)
R-squared = 0.9914
D.W.
= 1.52
JRY
—jewelry
POP
—total popluation
PCE
—personal consumption expenditures
PR—JRY —relative price of jewelry
Variable 209 OPT
OPT =1.0269(OPT(-1)
OPT —opthalmic and orthopedic appliances
Variable 210 - BKS
BKS/POP = -0.477 + 0.631 (BKS(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.0041 (PCE/POP) - 0.0026 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l))
(1.705) (6.783)
(3.419)
(1.845)
Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = —0.10
R-squared
=0.9715
D.W.
= 1.83
BKS —books and maps
PCE —personal consumption expenditures
POP —total population



43

V a r ia b le 2 1 1 — W H G

WHG/POP = 0.839 (WHG(-1)/POP(-1)) + 0.016 (PCE/POP) - 0.013 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l)) - 0.0193 (PR-WHG)
(6.454)
(4.015)
(2.591)
(0.264)
-0.028 (PR-WHG(-l))
(0.413)
Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.272
R-squared
=0.9914
D.W.
=2.19
WHG
- wheeled goods, durable toys, sports equipment
PCE
—personal consumption expenditures
POP
—total population
PR—WHG —relative price of WHG
Variable 212 - FOP
FOP/POP = 70.145 + 0.143 (PCE/POP - PCE(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.0059 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.784 (FOP(-l)/POP(-l))
(3.103) (12.946)
(0.854)
(8.861)
R-squared = 0.953
D.W.
=1.094
FOP —food and beverages for off-premise consumption excluding alcohol
POP —total population
PCE —personal consumption expenditures
Variable 213 —FPM
FPM/POP = 42.909 + 0.416 (FPM(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.037 (PCE/POP - PCE(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.0103 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l))
(4.236) (3.174)
(7.622)
(3.911)
R-squared = 0.9343
D.W.
= 1.2282
FPM - food and beverages, on-premise consumption excluding alcohol
PCE —personal consumption expenditures
POP —total population

Variable 214 —ALC
ALC/POP = -22.225 + 0.582 (ALC(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.006 (PCE/POP) + 0.634 (POP 18/POP)
(1.240)
(9.712)
(4.650)
(2.410)
R-squared = 0.940
D.W.
= 2.030
ALC —alcoholic beverages
POP —total population
PCE —personal consumption expenditures
POP 18 —population age 18 and over
Variable 215 —FOO
FOO = 361.0 + 1965.0 * (1.02) ** ((YR) -76)
FOO —food furnished government and commercial employees
YR —year



44

V a r ia b le 2 1 6 -

FFD

FFD/FPOP = -2.151 + 1.070 * (FFD(-l)/FPOP(-l)) + 0.0003 * FDPI + 0.0003 * FDPI(-1)
(1.802) (13.244)
(3.191)
(3.191)
R-squared = 0.9141
D.W.
= 2.2460
FFD —food produced and consumed on farms
FPOP —total farm population
FDPI —farm disposable personal income
Variable 217 - SHU
SHU = 200 + SHU(—1)
SHU —shoes and other footwear
Variable 218 —CLO
CLO/POP = 0.590 + 0.796 (CLO(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.074 (PCE/POP - PCE(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.013 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l))
(0.113) (7.409)
(26.234)
(2.283)
- 6.489 (D)
(3.272)
R-squared = 0.9901
D.W.
= 2.302
CLO —clothing and luggage
POP —total population
PCE —personal consumption expenditures
D —dummy representing effects of Vietnam War on clothing:
1966 = 0.501
1967= 1.000
1968 = 0.987
1969 = 0.889
1970 = 0.625
1971 =0.136
Variable 219 - MIC
MIC —clothing issued to military
Projections —constant value over the projected period
Variable 220 - GAO
GAO —gasoline and oil
Projection process —exogenously determined
Variable 221 —FUL
FUL —fuel oil, coal, and farm wood
Projections process —exogenously determined
Variable 222 - TOB
TOB —tobacco
Projections process —growth rate over projections period equal to USDA growth rate




45

Variable 223 - ABD
In ABD = -2.868 - 1.058 On (DEFM/DFDPI)) + 0.783 (In (PCE/HH)) + 0.458 (In EAB)
(1.422) (4.191)
(4.699)
(3.466)
R-squared = 0.901
D.W.
= 0.730
ABD
DEFM
DFDPI
PCE
HH
EAB

- expenditures abroad by U.S. Government personnel
—imports of goods and services deflator, 1972 = 100
- disposable personal income deflator, 1972 = 100
—personal consumption expenditures
—households
—employees abroad

Variable 224 - REM
REM/POP = 0.788 (REM(-l)/POP(-l)) - 0.005 (PCE/POP) + 0.005 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l)) - 0.094 (PR-REM)
(10.447)
(3.564)
(3.564)
(2.458)
R-squared = 0.5549
D.W.

= 1.2239
REM
POP
PCE
PR-REM

—remittances in kind
—total population
—personal consumption expenditures
—relative price of REM

Variable 225 - SDH
SDH/POP =0.156 (SDH(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.018 (PCE/POP) - 0.009 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l)) + 3.572 (D)
(1.043)
(8.482)
(3.218)
(0.575)
Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.960
R-squared
= 0.9859
D.W.
= 1.7213
SDH
POP
PCE
D

—semidurable house furnishing
—total population
—personal consumption expenditures
—dummy variable, 1930-41 = 1

Variable 226 - DRG
DRG/POP = 31.787 - 1.375 (YR) + 0.020 (YR * YR)
(3.653) (4.810)
(8.639)
R-squared = 0.9930
D.W.
=0.7951
DRG - drug preparation and sundries
POP - total population
YR —year
Variable 227 - TLG
TLG/POP = 0.830 (TLG(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.003 (PCE/POP) - 0.031 (PR-TLG) + 1.845 (D)
(15.552)
(4.074)
(3.937)
(2.853)
R-squared = 0.9950
D.W.
=1.1247




46

TLG
—toilet articles and preparations
POP
—total population
PCE
—personal consumption expenditures
PR-TLG —relative price of TLG
D
—dummy variable, 1930-40 = 1
Variable 228 - STY ((YR)-76)
STY —stationery and writing supplies
YR —year
Variable 229 - TOY
TOY/POP = 0.731 (TOY(-1 )/POP(-1)) + 0.008 (PCE/POP) - 0.004 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l)) - 0.029 (PR-TOY) - 0.008 (PR-TOY(-l))
(6.100)
(5.024)
(1.990)
(0.894)
(0.238)

Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.30
R-squared
= 0.9966
D.W.
=1.62
TOY —nondurable toys and sport supplies
POP
—total population
PCE
—personal consumptionexpenditures
PR-TOY —relative price of TOY
Variable 230 - FLO
FLO/POP = - 29.049 + 0.576 (YR)
(13.154) (18.394)
R-squared = 0.9713
D.W.
= 2.263
FLO —flowers, seeds, and potted plants
POP —total population
YR —year
Variable 231 —CLP
CLP/POP = - 0.928 + 0.930 (CLP(-l)/POP(-l))+ 0.012 (PCE/POP) - 0.011 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l)) - 0.335 (D)
(0.244) (9.298)
(4.489)
(3.862)
(0.390)
R-squared = 0.9945
D.W.
= 1.76
CLP
POP
PCE
D

—cleaning, polishing, paper, miscellaneous
—total population
—personal consumption expenditures
—dummy variable, 1927-46 = 1

Variable 232 —MAG
MAG = 1.023 * (MAG(-l))
MAG —magazines and newspapers
Variable 233 - OWN
OWN/HH = 29.808 + 1.0 * (OWN(-l)/HH(-l))




47

OWN —owner-occupied nonfarm space rental value
HH —households
Variable 234 —TEN
TEN/HH = 11.734 + 1.00 * (TEN(-1)/HH(-1))
TEN - tenant occupied nonfarm space rent
HH —households
Variable 235 —FAR
FAR = FAR (-1) * (FPOP/FPOP(-l))
FAR —rental valued farm houses
FPOP —total farm population
Variable 236 - OHO
OHO/POP = - 6.899 - 0.089 (OHO(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.004 (PCE/POP + PCE(-l)/POP(-l))
(4.423) (0.646)
(7.700)
Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.8
R-squared
= 0.989
D.W.
=2.010
OHO —other housing
POP —total population
PCE —personal consumption expenditures
Variable 237 - ELC
ELC = (DELC/DELC(-1)) * ELC(-1)
ELC —electricity
DELC —exogenously determined level of usage
Variable 238 - NGS
NGS = (DNGS/DNGS(-1)) * NGS(-1)
NGS —natural gas
DNGS —exogenously determined level of usage
Variable 239 - WAT
WAT/POP = - 0.266 + 0.662 (WAT(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.003 (PCE/POP) - 0.001 (PCE(-l)/POP(~l)) - 0.031 (PRICE)
(0.475) (5.216)
(3.095)
(1.146)
(2.057)
+- 0.040 (PRICE(-1))
(2.695)
Cochrane/Orcutt RHO =0.376
R-squared
= 0.99
D.W.
=1.87
WAT
POP
PCE
PRICE

—water and other sanitary services
—total population
—personal consumption expenditures
—labor price/cost spread, private economy

Variable 240 - TEL
TEL/POP-TEL(-l)/POP(-l) = 0.005 (PCE/POP) - 0.003 (PCE(~l)/POP(-l)) - 0.031 (PRICE) + 0.009 (PRICE(-1)) + 1.67:
(3.299)
(2.075)
(2.079)
(0.592)
(3.999)



48

R -s q u a re d = 0 .8 5 1 9
D .W .

= 1 .9 3

TEL
PCE
POP
PRICE
D

—telephone and telegraph
—personal consumption expenditures
—total population
—labor price/cost spread, private economy
—prewar dummy = 1

Variable 241 - DMS
DMS/POP = 0.963 * (DMS(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.019 (PCE/POP) - 0.019 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l))
(88.310)
(3.078)
(3.078)
- 0.144 (PR-DMS) + 0.144 ((PR-DMS)(-1))
(0.710)
(0.710)
R-squared = 0.9489
D.W.
=1.8711
DMS —domestic service
POP
—total population
PCE
—personal consumption expenditures
PR-DMS —relative price of domestic services
Variable 242 —OPO
OPO = -1839.043 + 79.486(YR) + 9.229(POP)
OPO —other household operations
POP —total population
YR —year
Variable 243 - REP
REP/POP = - 12.916 + 0.376 (REP(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.018 (PCE/POP) - 0.003 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l))
(4.334) (4.979)
(7.400)
(1.833)
- 0.144 (PRICE) + 0.181 (PRICE(-l)) - 6.823 (D)
(2.022)
(2.791)
(4.771)
R-squared = 0.9977
D.W.
= 1.47
REP
POP
PCE
PRICE
D

—auto repairs
—total population
—personal consumption expenditures
—labor price/cost spread, private economy
—prewar dummy = 1

Variable 244 - TOL
TOL = DGAO(-l) * TOL (-1)
TOL —road tolls
DGAO —exogenously determined gasoline extrapolator
Variable 245 - AIN
AIN/POP = - 2.566 + 0.647 (AIN(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.006 (PCE/POP - PCE(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.002 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l))
(1.893) (5.295)
(7.597)
(2.801)




49

R - s q u a r e d = 0 .9 7 3 2
D .W .

= 1 .7 7 7 4

AIN —auto insurance premiums less claims paid
POP —total population
PCE —personal consumption expenditures
Variable 246 - STR
STR = 25 + STR(-l)
STR —street, electric railroad, and local bus
Variable 247 - TAX
TAX = 1.027**((YR)-73) * 842
TAX —taxicab
YR - year
Variable 248 - CRR
CRR/POP = 4.255 + 0.0005(PCE/POP) - 0.0001 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l)) - 0.064(YR)
(23.295) (3.698)
(2.525)
(7.645)
R-squared = 0.9596
D.W.
= 0.9626
CRR
POP
PCE
YR

—commuter rail transportation
—total population
- personal consumption expenditures
—year

Variable 249 - IRR
IRR= 1.015 * IRR(-l)
IRR —railway excluding transportation
Variable 250 —IBU
IBU/POP = 0.946 (IBU(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.001 (PCE/POP) - 0.0009 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l))
(41.895)
(2.149)
(1.817)
- 0.006 (PR-IBU) + 0.002 ((PR-IBU(-l))
(1.856)
(0.683)
R-squared = 0.9822
D.W.
= 1.7561
IBU
—intercity bus
POP —population
PCE —personal consumption expenditures
PR-IBU —relative price of IBU
Variable 251 —IAI
IAI/POP = - 19.978 + 0.006 (PCE/POP) + 0.002 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.160 (YR)
(21.436) (9.338)
(8.542)
(3.484)
R-squared = 0.9914
D.W.
= 1.0580
IAI —airlines
POP —total population



50

PCE —personal consumption expenditures
YR —year
Variable 252 —TRO
TRO = 167 + 4.333 ((YR) -73)
TRO —other purchases intercity transporation
YR —year
Variable 253 - SCL
SCL/POP = 2.619 + 0.586 (SCL(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.0005 (PCE/POP) - 0.0008 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l))
(3.097)(6.669)
(1.450)
(2.413)
-0.019 (PR—SCL) + 0.008 ((PR-SCL)(-1))
(2.547)
(1.018)
Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.2825
R-squared
= 0.9807
D.W.
= 1.3247
SCL
POP
PCE
PR-SCL

—shoe cleaning and repair
—population
—personal consumption expenditures
—relative price of SCL

Variable 254 - LAU
LAU = .9726 * LAU(-1)
LAU - cleaning, dyeing, pressing, alteration, and laundering in establishments

Variable 255 - COT
COT = - 3016.80 + 58.2821 (YR)
COT —other clothing, accessories, and jewelry
YR —year
Variable 256 - BBB
BBB = BBB(-l) * POP/POP(-l)
BBB —barbershops, beauty parlors, and baths
POP —total population
Variable 257 - RTV
RTV = - 2.080 + 0.001 (PCE/POP -PCE(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.0003 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.046 (YR) - 0.013 (D)
(4.049) (3.129)
(0.973)
(2.096)
(4.274)
R-squared = 0.9846
D.W.
=0.9189
RTV
PCE
POP
D
YR

—radio and television repair
—personal consumption expenditures
—total population
—dummy variable, 1947-50 = 1
—year




51

V a r ia b le 2 5 8 — M O V

MOV/POP = 0.929 (M0 V'(-1 )/POP(-1)) + 0.016 (PCE/POP) - 0.016 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l)) - 0.132 (PRICE) + 0.124 (PRICE(-l))
(35.729)
(4.378)
(4.372)
(1.247)
(1.271)
R-squared =0.978
D.W.
= 2.370
MOV
PCE
POP
PRICE

—motion picture admissions
—personal consumption expenditures
—total population
—labor price/cost spread, private economy

Variable 259 —LEG
LEG = LEG(-l ) * POP/POP(-l)
LEG —legitimate theaters, etc.
POP - total population
Variable 260 - SPE
SPE = -1.078 + 0.538 (SPE(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.001 (PCE/POP)
(2.245) (4.886)
(3.333)
Cochrane/Orcutt RHO =0.817
R-squared
= 0.99
D.W.
=1.68
SPE —spectator sports
POP —total population
PCE —personal consumption expenditures
Variable 261 —CLU
CLU —clubs and fraternal organizations
Projections process —determined exogenously
Variable 262 —COM
COM = 2126.0 + 818.0 (POP/POP(-l)) +66.163 * ((YR)-76)
COM —commercial participant amusements
POP —total population
YR —year
Variable 263 —PAR
PAR = PAR(-l) + 25
PAR = pari-mutuel net receipts
Variable 264 —REO
REO = - 16652.848 + 347.281(YR) - 0.721(YR * YR)
REO —other recreation
YR - year




52

V a r ia b le 2 6 5 -

BRO

BRO —brokerage fees and investment counseling
Projection process —exogenously determined
Variable 266 - BNK
BNK = - 2.272 + 0.651 (BNK(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.003 (PCE/POP) - 0.001 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l))
(2.885) (1676.778)
(5.052)
(0.010)
R-squared = 0.9879
D.W.
=1.62
BNK —bank service charges
POP —total population
PCE —personal consumption expenditures
Variable 267 - IMP
IMP = - 8.422 + 0.584 (IMP(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.010 (PCE/POP) + 4.464 (D)
(5.199) (7.781)
(6.438)
(4.555)
Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.370
R-squared
= 0.994
D.W.
=1.93
IMP
POP
PCE
D

—financial service charges furnished without pay
—total population
—personal consumption expenditures
—dummy = 1, if year is less than or equal to 1941

Variable 268 —LIF
LIF/POP = 5.046 + 0.360 (LIF(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.003 (PCE/POP) + 0.003 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l))
(2.951) (2.281)
(4.113)
(4.113)
R-squared = 0.950
D.W.
=1.98
LIF —expense of handling life insurance
POP —total population
PCE —personal consumption expenditure
Variable 269 - GAL
GAL-GAL(-1)= 1.158- 162.272 (DE) + 40.482 (U) - 162.661 (I) + 248.011 (D)
(0.015) (4.208)
(2.906)
(4.388)
(2.869)
R-squared = 0.7903
D.W.
= 3.01
GAL —legal services
DE —dummy, election years = 1
U
—unemployment rate
I
- intercept = 1, if year is less than or equal 1956
D —dummy = 1, in 1966, 0 in all other years
Variable 270 - FUN
FUN = FUN(-1) * DEATHS/DEATHS(-1)
FUN
—funeral and burial expenses
DEATHS —number of deaths



53

V a r ia b le 2 7 1 -

PBO

PBO/POP - PBO(-l)/POP(-l) = 0.003 (PCE/POP - PCE(-l)/POP(-l)) - 0.059 (PRICE - PRICE(-l)) + 0.296 (D)
(4.617)
(2.270)
(2.553)
R-squared = 0.4124
D.W.
= 2.07
PBO —other personal business services
POP —population
PCE —personal consumption expenditures
PRICE —labor price/cost spread, private economy
D
—dummy = 1, if year less than or equal to 1941; 0, if greater than 1941
Variable 272 - PHY
PHY/POP = 148.711 - 4.644 (YR) + 0.050 (YR * YR)
(8.308) (7.871)
(10.449)
R-squared = 0.9853
D.W.
=1.14
PHY —physicians
YR —year
Variable 273 - DEN
Ln DEN = 6.626 + 0.006 (YR) + 0.0003 (YR * YR)
(15.025) (0.399)
(2.583)
R-squared = 0.9884
D.W.
=0.9134
DEN —dentists
YR - year
Variable 274 - OPS
OPS = 1.03 * OPS(-l)
OPS —other professional services
Variable 275 - PHO
PHO = - 17.005 + 0.894 (PHO(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.012 (PCE/POP) - 0.003 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l))
(2.538) (12.775)
(2.442)
(0.497)
R-squared = 0.997
D.W.
=1.61
PHO —privately controlled hospitals and sanitariums
POP —total population
PCE —personal consumption expenditures
Variable 276 - HIN
HIN/POP = 0.686 (HIN(-l)/POP(-l)) + 0.007 (PCE/POP) - 0.003 (PCE(-l)/POP(-l)) - 0.060 (PRICE) + 0.025 (PRICE(-1))
(8.823)
(4.191)
(2.214)
(5.489)
(1.560)




54

Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = -0.213
R-squared
= 0.9965
D.W.
=1.54
HIN —health insurance
POP —total population
PCE —personal consumption expenditures
PRICE —labor price/cost spread, private economy
Variable 277 - HED
HED= 1097.78 + 433.838 (HEW HED)
(28.366) (74.800)
R-squared = 0.9962
D.W.
=1.72
HED
—higher education
HEW HED —HEW projection of private education costs —held at constant level 1984-1990
Variable 278 - EED
EED = 693.838 + 1687.85 (HEW EED)
(9.239) (26.497)
R-squared = 0.9709
D.W.
=0.8501
EED
- elementary and secondary schools
HEW EED - Office of Education projections used as extrapolators
Variable 279 —OED
OED= OED(-l) * GNP/GNP(-1)
OED —other education and research
GNP —gross national product
Variable 280 —RAW
RAW = - 8706.871 + 258.134 (YR)
(282.6)
(4.53)
R-squared = 0.9936
D.W.
= 2.27
RAW —religious and welfare expenditures
YR —year




55

V a r ia b le 2 8 1 — F T R

FTR/POP = 0.8 (FTR(—1)/POP(—1)) + 0.003 (PCE/POP) - 0.030 (PRICE)
(12.903)
(3.971)
(3.893)
Cochrane/Orcutt RHO = 0.032
R-squared
=0.9817
D.W.
=1.85
FTR
POP
PCE
PRICE

—'foreign travel by U.S. residents
—total population
—personal consumption expenditures
—labor price/cost spread, private economy

Variable 282 —EXP
EXP = 1.065 * EXP(-1)
EXP - expenditures in United States by foreigners




56

Appendix D.

Table D-1.

Investment-Output Ratios

Equipment
Projected base case
Industry

1.00
2.0 0
3 .0 0
4 .0 0
5.00
6 .0 0
7 .0 0
8 .0 0
9 .0 0
1 0 .00
1 1 .00
1 2 .00
1 3 .00
1 4 .0 0
15 .00
16.00
1 7 .0 0
1 8 .00
1 9 .00
2 0 .0 0
2 1 .0 0
2 2 .0 0
2 3 .0 0
2 4 .0 0
2 5 .0 0
2 6 .0 0
2 7 .0 0
2 8 .0 0
2 9 .0 0
3 0 .0 0
3 1 .0 0
3 2 .0 0
3 3 .0 0
3 4 .0 0
3 5 .0 0
3 6 .0 0
3 7 .0 0
3 8 .0 0
3 9 .0 0
4 0 .0 0
4 1 .0 0
4 2 .0 0
4 3 .0 0
4 4 .0 0
4 5 .0 0
4 6 .0 0
4 7 .0 0
4 8 .0 0
4 9 .0 0
5 0 .0 0
5 1 .0 0
5 2 .0 0
5 3 .0 0
5 4 .0 0
5 5 .0 0
5 6 .0 0
5 7 .0 0
5 8 .0 0
5 9 .0 0
6 0 .0 0
6 1 .0 0
6 2 .0 0
6 3 .0 0
6 4 .0 0

Livestock and livestock p ro d u c ts ..............................
Other agricultural p r o d u c ts ........................................
Forestry and fishery p r o d u c ts ...................................
Agricutural, forestry, and fishery s e rvices.............
Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g .................................
Nonferrous metal ores m in in g ...................................
Coal m in in g ......................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ..............................
Stone and clay mining and q u arry in g .......................
Chemical and fe rtilizer mineral m ining....................
New construction............................................................
Maintenance and repair c o n s tru c tio n .......................
Ordnance and accessories.............................................
Food and kindred p ro d u c ts ........................................
Tobacco m anufactures..................................................
Broad and narrow fabric, yarn, and thread mills. .
Miscellaneous te x tile goods and flo or coverings . .
A p p a r e l..............................................................................
Miscellaneous fabricated te xtile products...............
Lumber and wood products, except containers . .
Wooden containers..........................................................
Household fu rn itu re .....................................................
Other fu rn itu re and fixtures ......................................
Paper and allied products, except containers . . . .
Paperboard containers and boxes ...........................
Printing and p u b lis h in g ................................................
Chemicals and selected chemical p ro d u c ts.............
Plastics and synthetic m a te ria ls .................................
Drugs, cleaning and to ile t p re p a ra tio n s ..................
Paints and allied p r o d u c ts ...........................................
Petroleum refining and related industries .............
Rubber and misc. plastics p r o d u c ts .........................
Leather tanning and industrial leather products. .
Footw ear and other leather products.......................
Glass and glass products .............................................
Stone and clay products................................................
Primary iron and steel manufacturing ....................
Prim ary nonferrous metal manufacturing .............
Metal c o n ta in e rs ............................................................
Heating, plum bing, and structural metal products
Stampings, screw machine products, and bolts. . .
Other fabricated metal products.................................
Engines and tu r b in e s .....................................................
Farm machinery and e q u ip m e n t..............................
Construction, m ining, and oilfield m echinery. . . .
Material handling m achinery and equipm ent . . . .
M etalw orking m achinery and e q u ip m e n t...............
Special industry m achinery and e q u ip m e n t..........
General industrial machinery and eq uip m ent. . . .
Machine shop p r o d u c ts ................................................
O ffice, com puting, and accounting machines. . . .
Service industry m a c h in e s ...........................................
Electric industrial equipm ent and apparatus . . . .
Household appliances.....................................................
Electric lighting and wiring eq u ip m e n t....................
Radio, T V , and com m unication e q u ip m e n t..........
Electronic components and adcessories..................
Miscellaneous electrical m achinery, equipm ent,
and s u p p lie s ...............................................................
M otor vehicles and e q u ip m e n t...................................
A ircraft and parts............................................................
O ther transportation e q u ip m e n t...............................
Scientific and controlling in stru m en ts....................
Optical, ophthalm ic, and photographic equipm ent
Miscellaneous m an u fac tu rin g ......................................




1967

Projected alternate case

1973
19 80

1985

1990

1980

1985

1990

0 .0 1 7 5
.15 59
.0 3 7 9
.0951
.06 2 6
.09 18
.06 08
.0 5 5 9
.08 76
.1501
.02 86
.03 57
.01 57
.0161
.0081
.0 3 2 0
.02 35
.01 27
.0 1 0 9
.0 2 9 2
.0129
.0 2 0 8
.01 97
.0 6 2 5
.03 39
.0 3 1 4
.0 6 4 6
.0691
.0 2 2 4
.01 97
.0 1 5 3
.0 4 5 6
.0 1 2 4
.01 58
.0371
.03 47
.0378
.02 1 2
.0 2 8 9
.0 2 3 0
.0 2 7 3
.0 2 3 8
.02 8 5
.0 2 1 3
.0 2 7 2
.0121
.03 28
.0241
.02 78
.0 4 5 6
.03 85
.02 17
.02 95
.0 1 8 5
.0 3 2 3
.02 65
.0 5 0 9

0 .0 1 6 7
.12 35
.0377
.0 7 6 2
.03 08
.1 8 2 3
.1447
.03 83
.21 7 0
.3 6 0 8
.0339
.0 5 1 0
.0 1 6 0
.01 49
.01 67
.02 63
.02 43
.01 66
.01 14
.0 4 1 4
.0139
.0 2 6 3
.01 68
.04 03
.02 32
.02 88
.04 25
.0 3 6 8
.0191
.01 75
.01 26
.0 4 3 4
.0081
.0 2 1 2
.04 25
.0451
.02 55
.0151
.02 7 5
.03 1 5
.02 7 4
.0 2 4 0
.02 78
.0187
.02 6 5
.0 1 3 4
.0271
.02 6 8
.03 05
.0 4 0 4
.04 44
.02 25
.02 40
.01 83
.03 25
.0277
.06 54

0 .0 1 7 4
.1539
.0 5 7 5
.0 8 7 9
.0 9 5 9
.14 5 6
.09 5 8
.0871
.1 0 4 3
.1 8 5 2
.0 3 7 4
.04 82
.0 1 2 0
.01 73
.0 0 8 0
.0 3 1 5
.03 35
.01 53
.0 1 5 5
.03 83
.0 1 5 4
.0 2 7 0
.01 85
.0 6 0 0
.03 99
.0311
.06 75
.06 37
.02 68
.0 2 9 0
.01 76
.0 4 8 3
.0 1 3 2
.0 1 8 0
.04 35
.0 4 3 3
.04 30
.0248
.0331
.02 59
.03 02
.0 2 5 2
.03 0 6
.0251
.0 2 3 4
.0 1 1 9
.03 3 4
.02 27
.0311
.0351
.05 44
.0 2 4 0
.02 86
.0 2 2 4
.03 66
.02 52
.0 5 4 4

0 .0 1 6 6
.14 49
.0521
.08 39
.0 9 9 3
.14 83
.09 53
.0 8 8 9
.1071
.1 7 8 5
.04 46
.0 5 3 3
.01 4 6
.01 8 7
.00 8 2
.03 47
.0 4 1 3
.0 1 8 0
.01 77
.0 4 6 6
.0151
.0 2 6 6
.01 98
.05 87
.0 3 9 0
.0 3 0 4
.0 6 2 9
.0 6 1 0
.02 52
.02 22
.01 49
.04 69
.0131
.01 77
.04 26
.04 22
.04 19
.02 46
.0 3 2 0
.0251
.0291
.0 2 4 5
.03 07
.0 2 2 2
.0 2 4 5
.0 1 2 6
.0351
.02 4 7
.0 3 1 4
.03 47
.0 5 7 0
.0 2 3 0
.02 99
.0 2 2 4
.0 3 6 3
.02 72
.0 5 5 9

0 .0 1 6 7
.1481
.0531
.08 47
.10 08
.14 89
.09 73
.0911
.10 84
.1 8 0 9
.03 88
.0508
.0 1 4 2
.0 1 7 0
.0 0 8 0
.03 14
.03 32
.01 52
.0 1 5 0
.03 7 2
.0151
.02 70
.0 2 0 0
.05 9 4
.03 9 3
.0309
.06 38
.0 6 1 4
.02 56
.02 25
.01 82
.04 74
.0 1 3 3
.0 1 8 0
.04 33
.0427
.04 26
.0 2 5 0
.03 26
.0 2 5 4
.0 2 9 5
.02 49
.03 13
.0 2 2 5
.02 49
.0127
.03 55
.0251
.0319
.0 3 5 2
.05 7 8
.02 3 3
.03 0 3
.02 26
.03 68
.0277
.0 5 6 8

0 .0 1 7 2
.1 5 2 0
.0 5 6 8
.0 8 6 8
.0947
.14 38
.09 47
.0 8 6 0
.1 0 3 0
.1829
.03 70
.04 76
.01 19
.0171
.0079
.0311
.0331
.0152
.01 54
.0379
.01 5 3
.02 67
.01 82
.05 9 3
.03 9 4
.03 07
.06 67
.0629
.02 65
.0287
.01 74
.04 77
.0 1 3 0
.01 77
.04 30
.04 28
.04 25
.02 45
.0327
.02 56
.0 2 9 8
.02 49
.0302
.0 2 4 8
.0231
.01 18
.0 3 3 0
.02 25
.03 07
.03 46
.05 38
.02 37
.02 83
.0221
.03 6 2
.02 49
.05 3 7

0 .0 1 6 3
.1 4 2 4
.0 5 1 2
.0 8 2 4
.0 9 7 6
.14 57
.09 36
.0 8 7 4
.1 0 5 2
.1 7 5 3
.03 77
.0 4 9 0
.0 1 3 4
.0 1 6 5
.0077
.03 03
.0321
.0147
.0 1 4 5
.03 66
.01 48
.02 62
.01 95
.05 76
.03 8 3
.02 99
.06 18
.0599
.02 48
.02 18
.01 46
.0461
.01 28
.01 74
.04 18
.04 15
.04 12
.0241
.0 3 1 5
.02 46
.02 86
.0241
.0301
.0 2 1 8
.0241
.0 1 2 4
.03 44
.02 42
.03 08
.0341
.0 5 6 0
.02 26
.0 2 9 4
.0 2 2 0
.0357
.02 67
.05 49

0 .0 1 6 5
.14 66
.05 26
.08 39
.0 9 9 9
.14 7 5
.09 63
.09 03
.10 74
.17 92
.03 84
.05 03
.0141
.0 1 6 8
.0 0 8 0
.0311
.0328
.0 1 5 0
.01 48
.03 69
.0149
.0268
.0 1 9 8
.05 88
.03 8 9
.03 06
.06 32
.0609
.0 2 5 4
.02 23
.01 80
.0469
.0132
.01 78
.0 4 2 9
.04 23
.0421
.02 48
.03 23
.02 52
.02 93
.0246
.0 3 1 0
.02 23
.0247
.01 26
.03 52
.02 48
.03 16
.0348
.05 73
.0231
.0 3 0 0
.02 24
.0365
.02 74
.05 63

.0 2 6 4
.01 27
.0311
.01 92
.02 62
.0 3 9 9
.02 38

.03 28
.0 2 3 4
.01 42
.02 17
.0317
.0 3 0 4
.0 2 5 0

.02 95
.02 04
.0 1 8 8
.02 35
.0 2 8 8
.0 3 7 9
.02 59

.0 2 7 8
.0181
.02 07
.0 2 4 3
.0 2 7 2
.0 3 8 0
.02 55

.02 82
.0 1 8 4
.0 2 1 4
.02 45
.02 77
.0 3 8 6
.02 59

.02 9 2
.02 02
.01 8 6
.02 3 3
.02 8 5
.0 3 7 4
.02 56

.02 73
.01 78
.02 0 4
.02 39
.02 67
.03 73
.0251

.02 80
.01 82
.02 12
.02 4 3
.02 7 5
.03 82
.0?P~

57

Table P-1.

Equipment—Continued
Projected base case
1967

1980
6 5 .0 0
6 6 .0 0
6 7 .0 0
6 8 .0 0
6 9 .0 0
7 0 .0 0
7 1 .0 0
7 2 .0 0
7 3 .0 0
7 5 .0 0
7 6 .0 0
7 7 .0 0

Transportation and w areh o u sin g ..............................
Com munications, except radio and T V
broadcasting...............................................................
Radio and T V bro a d ca stin g ........................................
Electric, gas, w ater, and sanitary services...............
Wholesale and retail t r a d e ...........................................
Finance and in su ran ce..................................................
Real estate and re n ta l.....................................................
Hotels, personal and repair services, except auto .
Business services...............................................................
A utom obile repair and s e rv ic e s .................................
A m u s e m e n ts ....................................................................
Medical, educational services, and no np ro fit
organizations...............................................................




Projected alternate case

1973
1985

1990

1 9 80

19 85

1990

.1277

.16 6 5

.14 87

.14 56

.1 4 8 5

.14 69

.1431

.1471

.20 89
.1711
.0 7 5 3
.0 3 6 3
.0 2 1 4
.0 1 1 9
.0 5 6 3
.0 2 3 5
.0 8 5 4
.0 4 3 4

.20 1 5
.10 63
.1 0 7 6
.0 4 2 3
.04 79
.0101
.0 4 8 8
.0 3 2 8
.1 4 0 8
.08 2 4

.1 9 4 4
.1 2 8 5
.0911
.0 4 5 0
.0251
.0 1 2 9
.0 7 3 4
.0 2 6 5
.1 2 9 4
.07 47

.16 17
.1251
.08 83
.04 35
.02 42
.01 23
.0 7 1 0
.02 56
.1 2 4 0
.0741

.1461
.1271
.08 97
.0441
.02 47
.01 26
.0721
.0 2 6 0
.1 2 7 8
.0 7 7 0

.1 9 2 0
.12 69
.0 9 0 0
.0 4 4 4
.02 48
.01 27
.0 7 2 5
.0 2 6 2
.12 78
.0 7 3 8

.15 88
.1 2 2 9
.08 67
.04 27
.0 2 3 8
.0121
.0 6 9 8
.0 2 5 2
.1 2 1 8
.0 7 2 8

.1 4 4 7
.12 58
.08 89
.04 37
.0 2 4 5
.0 1 2 4
.07 1 4
.0 2 5 8
.1247
.07 62

.0 5 5 6

.0 4 5 4

.0 6 2 5

.0601

.0611

.0 6 1 8

.0 5 9 0

.06 05

58

Table D-2.

Structures
Projected base case
Industry

1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17

A g r ic u ltu re ..............................................................................
Mining, except crude petroleum and natural gas . . . .
Crude petroleum and natural gas......................................
C o n stru c tio n ...........................................................................
M a nufacturing.........................................................................
Transportation and w arehousing......................................
Com munications, except radio and T V broadcasting.
Radio and T V broadcasting................................................
Electric, gas, w ater, and sanitary services ....................
Wholesale and retail t r a d e ..................................................
Finance and insurance..........................................................
Real estate and r e n t a l..........................................................
Hotels, personal and repair services, except auto . . .
Business services....................................................................
A utom obile repair and services........................................
A m u sem en ts...........................................................................
Medical, educational services, and nonprofit
o rg a n iza tio n s....................................................................




Projected alternate case

19 73
19 80

19 85

1 9 90

1 9 80

1985

19 90

0 .0 2 5 5
.05 37
.2 2 6 2
.0 0 2 3
.0 1 1 6
.0 2 1 7
.11 59
.0 2 9 7
.1 6 1 4
.02 28
.0 2 3 3
.00 37
.0 4 1 0
.0 0 8 3
.01 06
.0 3 8 2

0 .0 2 2 0
.0841
.1 6 2 5
.0 0 2 4
.00 6 2
.0 1 7 3
.1 1 4 4
.01 09
.16 42
.0 2 3 3
.0 3 8 6
.0 0 4 4
.0 4 6 6
.00 87
.02 58
.0561

0 .0 1 8 5
.0 5 4 4
.2 4 2 3
.00 18
.00 7 5
.02 37
.06 95
.01 3 2
.1401
.01 4 2
.01 97
.0 0 2 4
.0 3 6 5
.0061
.0 1 5 6
.0 3 5 5

0 .0 1 7 9
.0 5 0 3
.2 6 0 6
.0 0 1 6
.0 0 7 0
.0211
.0 5 7 2
.01 20
.1341
.0131
.0 1 8 0
.00 22
.0 3 3 5
.0057
.0141
.0 3 3 3

0 .0 1 9 3
.0 5 5 4
.2961
.0 0 1 8
.0 0 7 6
.0 2 0 0
.04 92
.0 1 3 0
.14 77
.0141
.0 1 9 5
.00 25
.0361
.00 62
.0 1 5 2
.03 67

0 .0 1 8 3
.05 37
.2 3 9 3
.00 18
.0 0 7 4
.0 2 3 4
.0 6 8 6
.0 1 3 0
.1 3 8 4
.0141
.0 1 9 5
.0 0 2 4
.03 6 0
.0 0 6 0
.0 1 5 4
.0 3 5 0

0 .0 1 7 7
.0 4 9 8
.2581
.0 0 1 6
.00 70
.02 0 9
.0 5 6 6
.0119
.1 3 2 8
.01 30
.0 1 7 9
.0 0 2 2
.0 3 3 2
.00 57
.01 40
.0 3 3 0

0 .0 1 9 3
.05 56
.29 72
.00 18
.00 76
.0201
.0 4 9 4
.0 1 3 0
.14 8 3
.0141
.0195
.00 2 5
.03 62
.0 0 6 2
.01 53
.03 68

.0 9 8 5

.0621

.05 1 8

.0 4 7 4

.0 4 2 5

.0511

.04 69

.04 26

59

Appendix E. Federal
Government Equations

Regression
purchases and
plied from the
tion and total

equations derived the levels of defense
defense compensation using variables sup­
macro model. Only total civilian compensa­
Federal purchases were available and these

had to be allocated to the defense and nondefense sectors.
Regression equations were used for estimating defense and
nondefense new construction. Equations used in the Fed­
eral Government sector are given below:

1) Defense civilian compensation = 122.3 + .4093 military compensation + 198.8 time
R-squared = 0.9819
2)

Total defense purchases = 16850.4 + 2.606 military compensation +125.5 time
R-squared = 0.9426

3) Nondefense total new construction = -3825.5 + 7.845 nondefense employment
+0.0232 nondefense other purchases -69.01 time

4)

Nondefense nonresidential constmction = - 1731 + 3.30013 nondefense employment
—0.013 nondefense other purchases —35.981 time
R-squared = 0.4515

5) Nondefense highway construction = -116.344 +0.261 nondefense employment
—0.0032 nondefense other purchases+8.298
R-squared = 0.9462
6)

Nondefense industrial construction = -1977.4 +4.284 nondefense employment
+ 0.039 nondefense other purchases -41.323 time
R-squared = 0.9318

7) Defense new construction = 3662.4 - 1.047 military employment +0.086 defense other purchases -130.3 time
R-squared = 0.5452
8)

Defense nonresidential construction = 727.6 - 0.276 military employment
+0.0116 defense other purchases —14.543 time
R-squared = 0.4382

9)

Defense nonresidential construction = 641.2 - 0.270 military employment
+0.0182 defense other purchases —1.716 time
R-squared = 0.7723

10)

Defense industry construction = 2794.7 - 0755 military employment
+0.0392 defense other purchases —64.986 time
R-squared = 0.8468




60

Appendix F

Table F-1.

Labor Demand Coefficients

Method 1: Dependent variable: Hours of all persons, private nonfarm nonmanufacutring industries
C oefficients of the variable
Constant
term

Industry number and title

6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
117
118
119
120
121
122
123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149

Forestry and fishery p r o d u c ts ...............................................................
Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services........................................
Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ............................................................
Copper ore m in in g .....................................................................................
Other nonferrous ore m in in g .................................................................
Coal m in in g ..................................................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural g a s ..........................................................
Stone and clay m ining and q u a rry in g ..................................................
Chemical and fe rtilizer mineral m ining................................................
Railroad tra n s p o rta tio n ...........................................................................
Local transit, intercity b u s e s .................................................................
Truck tra n s p o rta tio n ................................................................................
Water tra n s p o rta tio n ................................................................................
A ir tra n s p o rta tio n .....................................................................................
Pipeline tran spo rtatio n..............................................................................
Transportation se rv ic e s ...........................................................................
C om m unication, except radio and T V .............................. .................
Radio and T V broadcastin g....................................................................
Electric u tilitie s ..........................................................................................
Gas u t ilit ie s ..................................................................................................
Water and sanitary services ....................................................................
Wholesale t r a d e ..........................................................................................
Retail t r a d e ..................................................................................................
Banking ..........................................................................................................
C redit agencies and financial b ro k e rs ..................................................
Insurance .......................................................................................................
Real e s ta te .....................................................................................................
Hotels and lodging places ......................................................................
Personal and repair services....................................................................
Barber and beauty s h o p s .........................................................................
Miscellaneous business s e rv ic e s ............................................................
Advertising ..................................................................................................
Miscellaneous professional s e rv ic e s ....................................................
A utom obile r e p a ir .....................................................................................
M otion p ic tu re s ..........................................................................................
Amusements and recreation s e rv ic e s ..................................................
Doctors' and dentists' services...............................................................
H o s p ita ls .......................................................................................................
Other medical services..............................................................................
Educational services...................................................................................
N o n p ro fit organizations...........................................................................




61

1.6 672 8
1.2 624 9
3 .7 6 8 7 3
1.9 955 6
3 .1 2 8 8 0
1.8 251 7
0 .5 7 5 9 3
0 .0 6 6 7 0
0 .8 4 5 4 9
0 .6 7 9 9 6
1.7 568 9
2 .0 4 4 8 5
0 .5 6 8 9 7
1.4 824 5
0 .8 6 4 9 3
1 .0 294 4
1 .4 385 0
0 .1 1 4 6 8
0 .8 8 4 2 5
1.6 748 2
0 .2 1 1 4 8
2 .4 5 5 4 9
2 .7 1 5 0 4
0 .2 2 7 3 9
0 .7 3 4 1 0
0.1 823 1
0 .6 5 6 1 5
0 .1 9 3 6 3
1.03371
1 0 3 352
0 .5 3 4 7 8
0 .1 7 1 9 9
1.1 516 4
3 .4 9 6 3 3
0.9 431 1
0 .4 5 0 9 4
1.3 895 4
0 .3 6 4 8 7
1.4 690 6
0 .3 7 7 6 5
1.1 280 6

Tim e
trend

Domestic
ou tp u t

- 0 .0 4 1 6 9
-0 .0 6 0 3 1
0 .2 7 0 6 9
0 .8 2 1 5 5
- 0 .0 5 8 6 9
0 .9 0 8 7 5
0 .7 0 4 2 6
0 .6 5 8 2 7
0 .1 7 4 6 5
0 .4 9 2 2 6
0.02361
0 .9 2 6 5 7
0 .9 1 1 9 9
1.1 175 8
0 .7 9 3 4 3
1 .0 0 7 5 0
0 .7 9 1 1 6
0 .6 7 3 5 0
0 .0 6 7 9 8
0 .2 8 6 5 8
0 .0 4 3 7 6
0 .4 7 0 7 4
0 .6 7 6 3 7
0 .0 5 8 7 8
0 .2 9 6 2 9
- 0 .0 2 0 6 8
-0 .0 0 1 4 4
0 .0 6 4 1 0
0.2 217 1
0 .2 0 5 3 7
0 .5 7 5 4 6
0 .2 4 0 5 6
0.2 076 1
0 .7 1 2 7 8
0 .0 8 1 6 7
- 0 .1 1 5 3 8
0 .2 7 9 1 7
-0 .0 1 7 8 3
0 .9 2 3 5 8
0 .1 6 8 5 4
0 .4 5 4 4 8

-0 .1 9 8 0 6
-0 .1 7 9 7 8
-0 .8 6 3 1 9
-0 .5 5 8 6 3
-0 .3 3 2 1 5
-0 .9 4 8 3 1
-0 .7 7 5 4 3
-0 .6 5 1 0 5
- 0 .3 2 7 1 0
-0 .5 9 9 0 0
0 .0 8 4 1 6
-0 .9 5 5 0 9
-0 .9 0 2 5 0
-1 .0 8 2 2 5
-0 .7 7 8 0 1
-1 .0 4 4 3 8
-0 .7 9 2 5 2
-0 .7 5 0 5 6
-0 .0 9 0 1 9
- 0 .3 0 6 8 2
0 .0 3 1 1 5
-0 .4 0 6 6 3
-0 .4 8 2 5 9
-0 .0 7 6 1 3
- 1 .0 6 8 3 0
-0 .0 0 5 5 9
0 .0 8 2 2 7
0 .0 5 4 3 5
-0 .4 7 1 3 8
-0 .2 7 0 4 0
- 0 .3 2 3 9 0
0 .2 3 7 7 5
-0 .0 6 7 0 1
-0 .6 1 165
-0 .2 2 7 7 6
0 .1 7 1 2 2
-0 .2 8 1 1 1
-0 .2 3 6 8 9
-1 .6 6 3 5 8
-0 .3 9 5 8 1
0 .0 2 0 3 0

Lagged
dependent
variable
0 .8 6 1 7 0
0 .9 2 4 4 8
0 .0 4 1 8 3
0 .3 4 7 2 9
0 .4 0 9 6 8
0 .3 2 9 0 7
0 .1 2 5 4 3
0 .2 3 6 0 9
0 .5 8 5 5 8
0 .3 7 8 8 2
0 .6 1 6 8 3
0 .2 5 6 8 0
0 .0 5 8 4 9
0 .0 1 3 5 2
0 .2 7 5 9 3
0 .0 7 4 3 8
0 .3 3 2 7 0
0 .3 0 1 3 8
0 .7 9 9 3 5
1.0 008 2
0 .9 4 5 6 7
0 .7 4 8 5 8
0 .5 3 2 1 2
0 .9 8 2 8 9
0.86991
1.0 611 5
1 .0 4 8 6 4
0 .9 3 5 5 0
0 .9 5 4 1 2
0 .9 6 3 2 9
0 .3 8 0 0 6
0.33051
0 .8 9 6 0 9
0 .6 5 7 9 0
0 .7 8 6 6 4
1.0 433 8
0 .8 8 2 4 7
1.0 442 8
0 .4 6 8 4 4
0 .9 2 3 4 6
0 .2 5 5 1 8

Table F-2.

Method 1: Dependent variable: Hours of production workers in manufacturing industries
C oefficients of the variable
Industry number and title

22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97

Ordnance ..................................................................................................
Com plete guided missiles....................................................................
M eat p r o d u c ts ........................................................................................
D airy prod ucts........................................................................................
Canned and frozen fo o d s ....................................................................
Grain m ill p r o d u c ts ..............................................................................
Bakery p r o d u c ts ...................................................................................
S u g a r..........................................................................................................
C onfectionery p ro d u c ts ......................................................................
Alcoholic beverages..............................................................................
S o ft drinks and fla v o r in g s .................................................................
Miscellaneous food p r o d u c ts ............................................................
Tobacco m a n u fa c tu rin g ......................................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread mills . .......................................................
Floor coverings . . . . ............................................................................
Miscellaneous te x tile g o o d s ...............................................................
Hosiery and kn it g o o d s ......................................................................
A p p a r e l.....................................................................................................
Miscellaneous fabricated te x tile p r o d u c ts ...................................
L o g g in g .....................................................................................................
Sawm ills and planing m ills .................................................................
M illw o rk, plyw oo d, and other wood products .........................
W ooden c o n ta in e r s ..............................................................................
Household f u r n i t u r e ...........................................................................
Other fu rn itu re and f i x t u r e s ............................................................
Paper products .....................................................................................
Paperboard .............................................................................................
Newspaper printing and p u b lis h in g ................................................
Periodicals and book printing, publishing ...................................
Miscellaneous printing and p u b lis h in g ...........................................
Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals .................................
Agricultural c h e m ic a ls .........................................................................
Miscellaneous chemical p ro d u c ts .....................................................
Plastic m aterials and synthetic r u b b e r ...........................................
Synthetic fib e r s .....................................................................................
D ru g s ..........................................................................................................
..................................................
Cleaning and to ile t preparations
Paints and allied p r o d u c ts .................................................................
Petroleum refining and related p r o d u c ts ......................................
Tires and inner tu b e s .................... .. .................... ..............................
Miscellaneous rubber products .......................................................
Plastic p ro d u c ts .....................................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial le a th e r ...........................................
Footw ear and other leather products ...........................................
G la s s ..........................................................................................................
Cem ent and concrete p rod ucts..........................................................
S tructural clay products ....................................................................
P ottery and related products ..........................................................
Miscellaneous stone and clay products ........................................
Blast furnaces and basic steel p r o d u c ts ........................................
Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s.............................................
Prim ary copper and copper products ...........................................
Prim ary alum inum and alum inum products ..............................
Other prim ary nonferrous p ro d u c ts ................................................
M etal c o n ta in e rs ...................................................................................
Heating apparatus and plum bing fixtures ...................................
Fabricated structural m e t a l ...............................................................
Screw machine p r o d u c ts ....................................................................
Metal stam pings.....................................................................................
C utlery, handtools, and general h a rd w a r e ...................................
O ther fabricated metal p r o d u c ts ........................................ . . . .
Engines, turbines, and generators ..................................................
Farm m ach inery.....................................................................................
C onstruction, mining, and oilfield m a c h in e r y ............................
M aterial handling e q u ip m e n t............................................................
M etalw orking m ach in es......................................................................
Special industry m a c h in e ry ...............................................................
General industrial m a c h in e ry ............................................................
Machine shop p r o d u c ts ......................................................................
Com puters and peripheral e q u ip m e n t...........................................
Typew riters and other office e q u ip m e n t......................................
Service industry m a c h in e s .................................................................
Electric transmission e q u ip m e n t.....................................................
Electrical industrial a p p a ra tu s ..........................................................
Household a p p lia n c e s .........................................................................
Electric lighting and w i r i n g ...............................................................




Constant
term

3 .3 4 0 4 7
1 .9 8 9 2 4
0 .8 4 9 0 8
2 .7 9 5 2 2
0.5 061 1
0 .3 6 3 6 2
4 .6 347 1
3.2 842 1
1.0 882 7
0.9 108 1
0 .0 4 1 2 3
3 .2 1 7 5 2
0 .9 3 5 9 0
4.6 752 1
6 .3 5 3 2 8
1 .7 443 7
1.97941
0 .8 8 9 7 7
3.0 506 1
3 .4 0 7 2 5
0 .7 6 8 1 4
0 .7 6 6 1 8
0 .8 9 9 4 0
1.0 179 9
0 .1 6 8 2 5
0 .6 8 1 5 6
2 .2 6 3 9 8
0 .9 9 3 7 2
1 .3 101 0
1.2 686 8
0 .5 3 9 7 7
0 .0 1 1 2 5
5.73061
0 .1 7 3 4 2
0 .0 9 2 5 9
0.1 461 1
0 .4 7 6 4 6
2 .2 9 3 7 0
2 .0 8 1 6 4
1.9 938 5
0 .9 2 2 7 9
0 .1 5 4 8 5
3 .8 0 1 7 4
0.65681
1.9 705 6
0.83451
3 .5 850 1
0 .2 4 7 3 9
1.5 728 7
1.0 831 7
0 .2 1 9 8 2
1 .1 774 0
0 .3 6 7 5 8
1.17157
0 .1 7 2 8 4
0 .8 4 0 8 4
0 .3 9 7 3 4
1 .7 900 0
2.0 221 1
0 .0 9 9 6 4
1 .0 147 0
0 .5 3 1 1 8
0 .6 4 1 1 3
1.9 776 8
1.17571
0 .7 9 1 7 9
0 .2 0 3 6 8
0 .0 5 5 9 3
0 .1 3 8 9 7
3 .5 4 7 2 5
2 .5 9 8 0 2
0 .3 3 1 5 5
0.19911
0 .2 1 1 1 7
0 .9 2 7 6 9
1.3 995 5

62

Tim e
trend

Domestic
o u tp ut

Ratio,
production
to total
workers

0.4 619 1
0 .0 3 9 7 2
0 .0 6 6 4 8
0 .0 0 7 6 8
0.3 109 1
0 .0 7 2 8 5
0 .1 3 6 9 6
0.1 670 1
0 .4 4 7 7 5
0 .3 1 1 7 8
0 .0 8 7 8 6
0 .1 7 8 1 3
0 .9 5 7 1 4
1.01531
0 .2 6 8 8 7
0 .2 6 6 1 7
0 .4 4 5 5 8
0 .6 3 1 1 6
0 .0 4 3 8 8
-0 .0 5 7 8 3
0 .6 3 2 2 2
0 .7 311 1
0 .2 5 7 1 3
0 .8 8 2 1 4
0 .5 3 0 6 9
0 .6 9 4 9 8
0 .8 9 2 0 3
0 .3 9 5 5 6
0 .6 2 7 7 9
0 .6 5 6 4 4
0 .3 5 5 0 4
0 .5 7 7 7 6
1 .5 137 8
0 .1 0 3 2 9
0 .5 1 2 3 7
0 .4 3 3 3 3
0 .4 411 1
0 .0 8 2 4 5
1.0 722 7
0 .7 816 1
0 .4 5 4 9 3
0 .9 4 6 2 6
0 .5 2 7 6 8
0 .8 0 1 2 0
0 .1 9 5 8 4
0 .3 7 4 5 2
0 .6 0 2 4 6
0 .5 2 0 2 6
0 .0 8 2 2 9
0 .7 3 4 8 5
0 .6 9 1 7 3
0 .3 5 1 3 2
0 .5 3 3 9 8
0 .8 9 5 5 9
0 .5 7 9 1 6
0 .5 4 3 9 7
0 .6 0 2 2 0
0 .5 6 8 0 3
0 .8 8 5 8 8
0 .7 7 3 3 2
0 .8 0 3 3 6
0 .8 1 4 7 0
0 .7 2 5 4 9
0 .6 8 1 7 7
0 .8 7 0 1 4
0 .7 2 6 1 0
0.6 686 1
0 .5 1 5 1 8
0 .4 8 3 2 2
0 .3 0 2 2 9
0 .9 3 5 1 6
0 .5 1 3 1 3
0 .4 8 9 5 5
0 .5 2 8 0 2
0 .5 5 1 2 4
0 .5 647 1

- 1 .3 8 2 3 3
- 0 .3 4 8 5 3
0 .0 0 0 6 9
-0 .3 2 4 5 7
-0 .5 1 1 8 7
0 .0 1 0 4 6
0 .1 3 7 8 6
- 0 .3 2 2 9 7
- 0 .4 6 4 6 0
- 0 .5 6 6 3 2
-0 .2 9 2 1 0
0 .1 0 3 6 9
- 0 .9 6 3 4 6
- 1 .1 6 8 9 3
- 0 .5 3 7 2 9
- 0 .4 0 3 8 7
- 0 .8 8 1 4 9
- 0 .5 5 0 6 9
0 .2 2 7 5 7
- 0 .1 5 8 4 7
-0 .5 3 3 9 0
- 0 .5 7 1 4 2
-0 .0 7 3 6 0
-0 .7 1 0 0 8
- 0 .7 2 0 4 3
- 0 .6 8 8 3 3
- 0 .6 7 8 4 9
-0 .1 9 3 8 1
- 0 .6 3 3 4 0
- 0 .7 1 6 6 9
- 0 .3 4 5 4 6
-0 .4 7 7 8 1
- 1 .2 6 4 2 8
- 0 .0 8 6 8 8
- 0 .3 4 3 2 0
- 0 .1 6 8 0 4
- 0 .1 9 6 0 0
- 0 .0 3 6 4 3
- 1 .1 1 5 7 9
-0 .8 7 4 3 7
-0 .0 6 2 3 1
- 1 .0 6 7 7 2
0 .0 1 1 8 7
- 1 .0 2 1 5 3
0 .5 2 3 5 5
- 0 .5 6 2 2 3
0 .0 9 9 7 5
-0 .1 7 3 2 0
0 .4 9 0 4 4
- 0 .8 3 8 0 6
-0 .6 2 2 0 6
- 0 .1 4 2 1 2
- 0 .5 2 0 8 9
- 0 .7 6 7 9 4
- 0 .6 1 6 2 0
- 0 .8 0 3 2 5
-0 .5 2 5 8 1
0 .1 0 6 3 3
- 1 .0 4 5 1 0
- 0 .6 9 9 6 4
-0 .7 9 6 0 6
-0 .9 8 0 4 6
- 0 .7 5 2 0 5
-0 .1 8 2 6 1
- 0 .5 7 0 7 0
- 0 .3 9 7 4 9
- 0 .5 7 5 0 9
- 0 .1 6 0 0 7
0 .2 0 6 2 5
1 .2 823 5
- 1 .4 5 1 0 2
-0 .2 4 1 6 3
-0 .2 3 7 4 1
-0 .2 2 4 7 5
- 0 .4 3 3 0 8
- 0 .0 6 8 0 7

0 .9 9 8 1 4
1.20231
0 .8 5 3 4 4
0 .7 3 4 7 7
0 .7 5 3 5 0
0 .5 8 1 3 7
1.1 648 2
0 .0 7 0 0 7
0 .7 9 2 6 2
0 .8 2 6 0 5
0 .3 3 9 4 6
0 .3 5 9 8 3
0 .1 3 2 9 7
0 .5 7 9 0 4
- 0 .1 1 1 1 7
0 .4 1 4 3 0
0 .5 4 1 4 5
0 .2 3 0 5 2
0.7 288 1
0 .4 6 0 2 8
0 .3 5 2 2 0
0 .3 2 7 9 8
0 .8 9 5 2 4
0 .0 4 9 1 7
- 0 .0 4 8 4 2
0 .4 3 2 3 8
0 .7 4 9 3 9
0 .4 1 6 4 6
0 .7 2 7 4 5
0 .6 3 5 2 6
0.87791
0 .3 4 9 5 0
0.3 142 1
1.0 794 3
0 .2 6 9 5 5
0 .7 2 4 7 9
0 .6 2 8 7 0
- 0 .1 3 1 0 4
0 .2 1 1 2 0
0 .5 4 3 7 0
0 .0 6 6 6 0
0 .0 1 5 7 3
1 .1 548 8
0 .1 6 3 1 0
0 .4 7 9 1 4
0 .9 4 7 7 9
0 .9 7 6 2 7
0 .3 0 9 9 2
0 .3 8 7 9 4
0.G 2518
0 .2 3 2 3 5
0 .0 3 7 1 8
0 .5 9 2 7 0
0.2 458 1
0 .2 3 9 5 7
-0 .0 4 1 6 4
- 0 .0 3 8 8 4
0 .3 2 6 1 7
0 .0 7 0 6 4
0 .4 2 0 9 2
0 .4 7 0 1 6
0 .3 3 1 1 8
0 .5 1 9 0 5
0 .1 0 5 4 5
- 0 .0 9 5 0 4
0 .1 5 5 8 0
0 .1 4 7 4 4
0 .3 7 9 1 0
0 .6 2 7 9 8
1 .1 5 6 9 0
- 0 .2 1 6 7 4
0 .3 0 0 1 7
0.7 786 1
0 .3 1 0 6 7
0.5 605 1
0 .4 2 1 0 2

Lagged
dependent
- variable
- 0 .9 3 5 7 4
-0 .4 8 0 1 2
0 .2 3 3 6 8
- 0 .1 0 7 2 4
0 .1 7 1 0 4
0 .2 3 0 6 2
0 .4 3 2 8 3
- 0 .1 9 9 9 6
- 0 .0 4 7 7 5
-0 .3 4 2 9 1
0 .6 4 1 8 9
- 0 .5 9 4 5 2
-0 .0 9 5 9 5
0.1 735 1
- 0 .1 7 4 5 5
- 0 .0 3 6 9 6
- 0 .2 5 4 1 0
0 .2 1 9 9 3
-0 .7 7 6 1 1
- 0 .0 5 4 7 3
0 .0 2 9 3 9
-0 .1 6 6 6 1
-0 .1 7 3 5 0
0 .0 6 6 5 6
0 .5 9 1 8 6
- 0 .1 9 0 7 6
-0 .6 5 9 7 1
-0 .1 9 3 3 2
- 0 .3 3 1 6 9
- 0 .2 0 3 2 3
- 0 .2 6 5 5 3
-0 .3 1 2 5 8
- 0 .1 5 0 5 7
- 0 .3 1 0 2 8
- 0 .0 4 1 1 3
-0 .4 7 2 4 0
-0 .3 5 3 5 0
0 .3 7 7 3 8
- 0 .0 9 5 1 3
- 0 .0 9 5 1 6
0 .0 0 0 8 2
-0 .0 4 7 5 8
- 0 .3 9 3 6 4
- 0 .1 4 8 1 2
-0 .5 9 2 1 9
- 0 .3 8 4 5 5
- 0 .4 1 8 8 8
- 0 .0 2 1 9 4
- 0 .1 3 1 5 5
-0 .0 1 5 2 1
- 0 .0 8 8 4 4
0 .1 7 0 8 4
- 0 .4 8 8 5 5
-0 .3 4 2 4 0
- 0 .0 5 1 0 7
0 .4 6 2 3 4
0 .4 4 1 5 6
-0 .0 5 7 2 0
0 .4 8 0 2 2
- 0 .4 8 8 3 6
- 0 .3 3 3 3 7
- 0 .5 6 2 9 5
- 0 .3 6 9 3 5
0 .2 0 2 5 2
0 .0 3 0 8 2
- 0 .0 2 0 3 4
0 .0 1 2 4 7
- 0 .2 0 8 8 5
-0 .6 7 1 1 3
-0 .7 2 8 8 1
- 0 .4 6 0 5 6
- 0 .2 4 5 7 3
- 0 .6 3 9 3 9
- 0 .1 8 4 3 9
- 0 .6 6 8 7 9
- 0 .0 9 1 1 2

Table F-2.

Method 1: Dependent variable: Hours of Production workers in manufacturing industries—Continued
Coefficients of the variable
Industry number and title

98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116

Radio and T V receiving sets . . . . ; ................................... ............
Telephone and telegraph a p p a ra tu s ................................................
Radio and com m unication e q u ip m e n t...........................................
Electronic c o m p o n e n ts ......................................................................
Miscellaneous electrical products ..................................................
M o tor ve h icles........................................................................................
A ir c r a f t ....................................................................................................
Ship and boat building and r e p a ir ..................................................
Railroad e q u ip m e n t..............................................................................
Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a r t s .....................................................
O ther transportation e q u ip m e n t.....................................................
Scientific and controlling in stru m en ts...........................................
Medical and dental in stru m en ts.......................................................
Optical and ophthalm ic e q u ip m e n t................................................
Photographic equipm ent and s u p p lie s ...........................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated d e v ic e s ..............................
Jewelry and silverw are.........................................................................
Musical instruments and sporting goods ......................................
Other miscellaneous m anufactured p ro d u c ts ..............................




Constant
term

1.8 311 5
0 .1 4 7 2 9
0 .1 7 7 1 2
0 .3 7 4 2 6
1.73081
1.0 018 8
2 .7 9 1 8 0
0 .6 2 0 4 7
0 .8 6 1 9 8
0 .2 6 4 6 9
1.96251
1 .4 528 9
0 .3 5 7 7 3
1.7 895 5
0 .8 4 2 5 5
2 .5 1 7 3 7
0 .4 3 9 9 0
0 .5 9 3 0 8
2 .5 1 3 2 2

63

Tim e
trend

Domestic
ou tp u t

Ratio,
production
to total
workers

0 .7 6 0 0 8
0 .8 7 2 3 4
0 .7 3 2 5 0
0 .4 4 5 6 4
0 .9 4 1 3 3
0 .9 1 4 1 4
0 .6 8 2 1 2
0 .3 9 3 9 4
0 .5 7 2 4 4
0 .2 2 7 4 9
1 .1 0 3 6 3
0 .5 4 5 1 3
0 .3 9 9 3 6
0 .5 3 1 0 5
0 .4 1 9 3 5
0 .8 4 3 1 8
0 .7 7 5 8 3
0 .0 6 6 4 8
0 .0 0 7 6 8

-1 .2 0 9 8 3
-1 .1 3 6 8 3
-0 .6 2 0 1 2
0 .3 6 5 6 6
-1 .1 7 0 3 0
-1 .0 0 6 6 9
-0 .2 5 2 3 5
-0 .1 0 0 5 1
- 0 .0 5 0 4 5
0 .1 3 4 7 2
-0 .9 6 9 3 2
- 0 .1 0 0 5 0
0 .0 1 2 3 4
- 0 .6 7 1 1 3
- 0 .4 9 3 2 4
- 0 .3 2 5 2 9
-0 .8 6 1 1 5
0 .0 0 0 6 9
- 0 .3 2 4 5 7

0 .3 7 4 2 3
- 0 .0 3 5 5 5
0 .5 8 3 9 5
0 .5 7 3 2 3
0 .1 2 0 6 2
- 0 .0 4 5 7 5
0 .7 4 6 7 9
0 .6 3 0 0 0
- 0 .0 0 4 5 6
0 .3 6 4 9 8
- 0 .2 3 5 0 7
0 .8 8 8 9 2
0.6 313 1
0 .1 8 1 0 2
- 0 .0 0 0 2 6
0 .4 7 4 5 9
0 .2 9 8 3 2
0 .8 5 3 4 4
0 .7 3 4 7 7

Lagged
dependent
variable
- 0 .5 9 6 3 3
0 .1 6 4 6 9
- 0 .5 6 9 0 7
- 0 .6 2 4 4 6
0 .2 7 3 2 4
0 .2 3 5 6 0
- 0 .3 3 1 0 7
-0 .1 4 8 9 1
0 .0 3 2 2 9
0 .0 4 0 4 7
0 .3 6 5 9 6
- 0 .5 3 7 9 6
- 0 .5 9 5 6 7
- 0 .2 4 5 4 4
0 .2 3 8 7 8
- 0 .4 2 8 5 9
- 0 .0 9 7 1 8
0 .2 3 3 6 8
-0 .1 0 7 2 4

Table F-3.

Method 1: Dependent variable: Hours of nonproduction workers in manufacturing industries
Coefficients o f the variable
Industry number and title

22.
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75
76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97

Constant
term

O rdnance..............................................................................................................
Com plete guided m issilles..............................................................................
Meat p ro d u c ts ....................................................................................................
Dairy p r o d u c ts ..................................................................................................
Canned and frozen foods ..............................................................................
Grain mill p ro d u c ts ..........................................................................................
Bakery p r o d u c ts ...............................................................................................
S ugar......................................................................................................................
Confectionery products...................................................................................
A lcoholic beverages..........................................................................................
S oft drinks and fla v o rin g s ..............................................................................
Miscellaneous food p ro d u c ts .........................................................................
Tobacco m anufacturing ................................................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ......................................................................
Floor co vering s..................................................................................................
Miscellaneous te x tile g o o d s...........................................................................
Hosiery and k n it g o o d s ...................................................................................
A p p a re l.................................................................................................................
Miscellaneous fabricated te xtile p ro d u c ts ................................................
Logging..................................................................................................................
Sawmills and planning m ills...........................................................................
M illw o rk, plyw oo d, and other wood products........................................
Wooden c o n ta in e rs ..........................................................................................
Household f u r n it u r e ........................................................................................
Other fu rn itu re and fix t u r e s .........................................................................
Paper products....................................................................................................
P a p e rb o a rd .........................................................................................................
Newspaper printing and p u b lis h in g ............................................................
Periodicals and book printing, p u b lis h in g ................................................
Miscellaneous printing and pu b lis h in g .......................................................
Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals................................................
Agricultural chem icals.....................................................................................
Miscellaneous chemical p rod ucts.................................................................
Plastic materials and synthetic ru b b e r .......................................................
S ynthetic fibers ...............................................................................................
Drugs ...................................................................................................................
Cleaning and to ile t p re p a ra tio n s .................................................................
Paints and allied p ro d u c ts ..............................................................................
Petroleum refining and related p ro d u c ts ..................................................
Tires and inner tu b e s ........................................................................................
Miscellaneous rubber p r o d u c ts ....................................................................
Plastic products ...............................................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial le a th e r.......................................................
Footwear and other leather p r o d u c ts .......................................................
G la s s ......................................................................................................................
Cem ent and concrete p r o d u c ts ....................................................................
Structural clay p r o d u c ts ................................................................................
Pottery and related pro d u c ts.........................................................................
Miscellaneous stone and clay products.......................................................
Blast furnance and basic steel p ro d u c ts .......... ..........................................
Iron and steel foundries and forgings .......................................................
Prim ary copper and copper products..........................................................
Primary alum inum and alum inum products ...........................................
Other prim ary nonferrous products............................................................
Metal c o n ta in e rs ...............................................................................................
Heating apparatus and plum bing f i x t u r e s ...............................................
Fabricated structural m e ta l...........................................................................
Screw machine p ro d u c ts ................................................................................
Metal stampings ...............................................................................................
C utlery, handtools, and general h a rd w a re ...............................................
Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Engines, turbines, and g e n e ra to rs ...............................................................
Farm m a c h in e r y ...............................................................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield m a c h in e ry ........................................
Material handling eq u ip m e n t.........................................................................
M etalw orking m achines...................................................................................
Special industry m a c h in e ry ...........................................................................
General industrial m ach inery........................................................................
Machine shop p ro d u c ts ...................................................................................
Computers and peripheral e q u ip m e n t.......................................................
Typew riters and other office e q u ip m e n t..................................................
Service industry m ach ines..............................................................................
Electric transmission equipm ent ...............................................................
Electrical industrial apparatus .................................................. .................
Household ap p lia n c e s .....................................................................................
Electric lighting and w ir in g ...........................................................................




64

1 .5 740 9
2.61 203
4 .7 5 4 0 0
1.55121
1 .7 3 2 0 3
1 .6 3 2 4 2
0 .9 4 4 5 0
7 .9 5 2 6 2
1 .6 5 6 3 4
0 .4 2 2 8 9
0 .3 7 7 0 0
0 .7 0 1 4 4
2 .0 4 2 2 0
7 .7 3 3 2 8
0 .1 7 6 2 3
3 .3 3 7 0 5
0 .2 5 9 1 3
1 .9 3 0 2 3
2 .1 3 8 0 8
6 .7 8 2 4 7
2 .7 0 0 0 2
1 .1 142 7
6 .2 1 2 6 4
1 .8 482 7
0 .4 2 3 5 5
2.7 353 1
0.6 291 1
0 .4 2 4 8 0
1 .9 7 5 1 4
2 .8 9 8 8 2
6 .9 7 7 9 2
2 .9 5 9 2 4
2 .0 5 1 7 2
2 .8 7 5 4 3
1 .5 074 7
1 .4 8 8 1 3
0 .9 8 3 3 6
0 .1 1 3 3 3
0 .1 7 1 2 2
0 .3 2 0 3 7
0 .5 7 0 0 9
0 .1 6 8 1 4
4 .8 4 2 6 4
2 .6 2 6 5 5
1 .1 7 2 4 5
6 .8 9 1 8 2
0 .0 5 8 0 8
0 .1 1 1 2 6
0 .2 8 9 7 5
1 .9 4 1 9 2
1 .4 4 4 3 6
1 .5 5 4 8 9
0 .4 5 7 2 9
2 .6 4 2 5 0
0 .2 1 0 5 2
0 .0 1 4 3 7
0 .3 6 7 9 2
1.1 213 7
1 .6 5 3 9 7
1.24741
1 .1 107 3
0 .2 3 8 6 5
0 .1 9 4 9 5
1 .7 5 0 1 3
0 .8 7 5 9 2
0 .7 5 7 2 6
1 .2 3 6 8 6
1 .3 1 4 1 4
0 .2 5 6 7 5
1 .6 717 4
1 .0 6 8 8 0
0 .0 2 6 2 0
0 .1 1 6 5 2
0 .4 5 1 9 7
1 .7 4 6 8 5
1 .0 179 7

Tim e
trend
0 .3 3 7 0 7
- 0 .0 0 4 3 6
0 .0 6 0 8 8
0 .2 8 1 3 8
0 .0 7 6 1 5
- 0 .0 6 4 0 7
0.13461
-1 .0 9 5 8 2
-0 .3 6 9 0 2
0.18831
- 0 .0 2 5 6 6
0 .1 3 1 3 3
- 0 .1 8 9 7 0
1 .0 2 3 1 2
0 .3 1 3 4 0
0 .2 2 1 1 7
0 .2 4 0 5 3
0.5 167 1
-0 .1 7 7 4 3
2 .2 7 7 0 5
0.23551
0 .3 5 4 3 4
0.30731
0 .4 8 4 6 6
0 .3 6 0 7 9
0.73551
0 .2 0 9 8 5
0 .0 8 1 6 8
0 .4 3 4 4 3
0 .8 4 5 9 0
0.73561
0.19141
0 .6 1 6 0 0
0 .2 9 5 1 2
0 .4 3 3 9 5
0.71401
0 .0 9 9 9 3
0 .2 6 7 1 6
0.63061
0.29401
0 .2 0 9 3 6
0 .4 4 9 5 5
0 .4 6 3 0 0
0 .3 7 3 3 3
- 0 .2 4 8 3 9
0 .7 2 3 0 7
-0 .1 7 1 2 1
0 .1 8 3 7 5
- 0 .1 9 9 6 2
0 .5 3 4 8 9
0 .1 7 6 6 5
0 .1 8 8 1 9
0 .2 6 7 5 3
0 .7 7 6 4 0
0.7 216 1
0.1 631 1
0 .1 1 2 9 6
0 .2 6 3 2 7
0 .4 1 0 9 7
0.30641
0 .3 4 3 4 9
0.01 55 3
0.2 187 1
0 .3 4 0 6 0
0 .3 2 1 6 0
0 .3 3 9 2 7
0 .3 7 0 3 7
0 .4 0 2 7 2
0 .3 0 7 4 3
0 .4 1 5 0 6
0 .5 8 9 2 6
0 .1 5 0 6 8
0.2 796 1
0 .2 0 6 5 9
0 .0 7 2 4 5
0.1 710 1

Domestic
o u tp ut
-1 .0 2 4 5 2
- 0 .3 0 2 3 8
0 .0 7 8 4 7
- 0 .3 1 8 3 9
0 .3 4 8 9 6
0 .0 8 6 7 4
-0 .2 0 7 1 4
1 .2 724 7
0 .0 9 7 3 5
-0 .0 7 4 1 9
- 0 .0 0 2 0 0
- 0 .0 7 2 7 8
0 .0 2 6 6 8
-0 .5 7 9 4 7
-0 .3 1 3 0 3
0 .0 6 2 2 3
- 0 .4 7 1 8 0
- 0 .2 7 2 3 4
0 .5 0 6 1 6
- 1 .9 3 6 1 8
0.05011
- 0 .1 5 1 3 9
0 .8 5 8 3 3
- 0 .1 9 7 4 7
-0 .2 9 2 4 5
- 0 .8 4 9 7 2
- 0 .1 3 1 1 6
0 .1 4 5 0 6
- 0 .2 6 1 9 3
- 1 .2 2 4 4 0
-0 .6 2 5 6 1
0 .3 6 0 0 9
- 0 .5 9 1 8 0
- 0 .5 7 2 2 3
- 0 .9 8 4 2 7
-0 .5 4 9 6 3
- 0 .1 5 1 5 4
- 0 .2 2 1 9 0
- 0 .6 1 4 2 7
-0 .3 0 7 3 1
- 0 .1 3 7 3 3
- 0 .7 3 4 5 5
0 .1 0 6 3 5
- 0 .2 1 9 5 4
0 .7 4 7 5 8
- 0 .5 9 1 6 8
0 .3 3 6 4 3
- 0 .0 3 0 7 9
0 .3 2 0 1 7
-0 .5 8 0 6 2
-0 .1 2 0 5 2
- 0 .1 9 7 9 0
- 0 .4 4 8 2 4
-0 .8 0 6 1 8
-1 .1 7 8 6 9
- 0 .2 5 3 4 5
0 .0 9 0 4 3
-0 .1 5 3 1 4
-0 .4 7 5 2 5
0 .0 1 9 1 6
-0 .3 3 3 4 9
0 .1 3 4 7 2
-0 .1 0 7 7 9
-0 .1 7 7 4 5
-0 .1 4 9 5 4
- 0 .0 6 3 6 6
-0 .1 6 8 8 7
- 0 .3 8 5 1 7
-0 .0 3 3 0 6
- 0 .2 8 2 7 7
- 0 .4 9 8 8 5
- 0 .0 1 4 4 7
-0 3 0 7 5 3
- 0 .2 6 3 9 6
0 .0 1 1 9 5
0 .0 1 7 8 9

Ratio,
production
to total
workers
0 .0 8 1 4 0
0 .3 1 9 1 5
- 0 .6 2 2 7 9
0 .0 0 2 0 6
0 .5 1 3 0 8
0.0 122 1
0 .1 8 6 6 3
-0 .5 1 9 8 5
0 .6 2 8 4 5
0 .3 8 1 5 7
0.08921
- 0 .1 3 9 1 8
- 0 .0 2 1 7 6
0.12621
0 .2 1 0 7 6
0 .9 0 9 6 0
-0 .0 0 1 89
-0 .3 2 3 2 5
0 .1 2 6 9 6
-1 .3 9 0 8 4
0 .3 2 0 2 2
- 0 .1 3 5 4 0
0 .9 1 2 4 7
0 .0 2 8 7 8
- 0 .0 6 5 5 5
- 0 .1 2 3 6 7
0 .1 7 1 7 3
- 0 .0 4 7 9 5
0 .2 6 1 3 0
- 0 .1 7 2 0 9
1 .2 7 2 3 2
0 .8 6 6 5 2
- 0 .3 0 9 2 7
1 .4 6 5 2 2
0 .8 6 2 8 9
0.12921
0 .4 0 8 7 4
-0 .4 5 1 24
- 0 .2 0 1 4 5
-0 .2 1 50 8
0 .1 6 4 2 4
-0 .0 1 82 2
0 .7 3 9 3 9
0 .0 5 3 2 3
0.1 5 0 46
0 .5 2 8 1 9
0 .4 8 1 6 0
0 .0 0 4 2 7
0 .5 2 2 1 8
-0 .2 1 3 0 7
-0 .3 1 5 5 1
0 .2 6 3 2 2
0 .2 9 9 3 7
0 .2 1 0 0 3
- 0 .6 1 1 4 9
0 .0 7 8 6 2
- 0 .0 5 9 3 4
0 .0 9 3 5 6
0 .1 4 5 9 6
0 .4 8 1 7 4
0 .1 4 5 0 5
0 .2 7 8 4 3
0 .2 7 5 8 0
-0 .0 3 8 0 1
0 .0 2 9 3 0
0 .0 3 2 2 0
- 0 .0 3 3 5 0
0 .1 1 8 1 3
0 .1 7 0 1 2
0 .1 6 8 1 2
-0 .0 9 0 0 2
- 0 .0 5 0 3 9
0 .4 7 7 3 4
0 .2 6 9 7 8
0 .1 6 9 4 5
0.34021

Lagged
dependent
variable
0 .4 6 0 6 5
0 .3 4 1 1 0
0 .4 7 5 7 6
0 .9 7 1 4 7
0.23021
0 .6 2 6 9 5
0 .4 9 0 7 7
0 .1 1 4 2 7
0 .4 0 2 3 5
0 .2 2 5 7 4
0 .8 9 0 9 2
0 .7 3 1 4 0
0 .8 7 8 6 6
0 .6 9 3 7 8
0.2 189 1
0 .0 5 1 3 7
0 .8 0 8 8 5
0 .9 1 9 3 8
0 .3 0 1 7 0
0 .3 6 5 5 5
0 .5 9 8 7 8
0 .7 5 3 3 9
0 .3 8 4 0 3
0 .4 5 8 0 5
0 .5 6 0 3 2
0 .7 0 1 3 7
0 .5 3 5 7 7
0 .7 6 1 1 3
0 .4 7 4 7 0
0 .7 9 5 2 4
-0 .0 0 3 8 5
0 .1 1 2 4 9
0 .9 6 2 7 2
- 0 .1 2 8 6 2
0 .1 6 2 5 4
0 .1 1 3 5 2
0 .7 0 2 9 8
1.0 718 6
0.36171
0 .8 7 7 0 2
0 .5 4 8 3 8
0 .5 5 8 6 3
0 .0 6 9 8 7
0 .9 1 6 0 7
0 .5 4 9 4 5
0 .9 1 4 9 5
0 .2 9 6 5 5
0 .6 3 5 3 5
0 .5 8 4 9 2
0 .8 9 8 2 2
0.61471
0 .7 5 7 2 5
0 .4 2 6 4 6
0 .2 0 4 0 3
0.82311
0 .7 0 0 3 7
0 .8 8 0 6 2
0 .6 7 9 8 6
0 .6 0 5 4 6
- 0 .0 5 1 3 6
0 .5 3 9 5 9
0 .6 1 0 4 6
0 .2 8 0 7 5
0 .8 6 0 5 9
0 .6 0 3 3 2
0 .4 7 4 7 4
0 .6 6 7 4 9
0 .5 7 5 9 9
0 .1 9 6 4 2
0 .5 8 4 3 8
0 .4 3 8 6 7
0 .7 4 0 3 4
0 .0 2 8 8 0
0 .5 1 5 9 6
0 .1 1 4 4 3
0 .4 2 5 4 0

Table F-3.

Method 1: Dependent variable: Hours of nonproduction workers in manufacturing industries—Continued
Coefficients of the variable
Industry num ber and title

98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116

Consta nt
term

Radio and T V receiving s e t s ........................................................................
Telephone and telegraph ap paratus............................................................
Radio and com m unication eq uip m ent.......................................................
Electronic c o m p o n e n ts ...................................................................................
Miscellaneous electrical products ...............................................................
M otor vehicles....................................................................................................
A ircraft .................................................................................................................
Ship and boat building and r e p a ir ...............................................................
Railroad eq u ip m e n t..........................................................................................
Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a r t s .................................................................
Other transportation e q u ip m e n t.................................................................
Scientific and controlling instrum ents.......................................................
Medical and dental instrum ents...................................................................
Optical and ophthalm ic e q u ip m e n t............................................................
Photographic equipm ent and supplies.......................................................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated d e vices..........................................
Jewelry and silverware.....................................................................................
Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s ..................................................
Other miscellaneous manufactured prod ucts...........................................




65

0.10851
1.31511
0 .7 9 5 8 9
0.60691
0 .7 3 9 2 9
0 .8 2 0 2 2
1 .4 8 1 1 8
2 .8 5 0 3 3
0 .4 6 0 3 6
1 .4 9 9 7 7
2 .5 0 4 9 3
1 .5 607 6
0 .4 1 7 7 0
1 .1 490 7
0 .9 2 6 2 6
1 .5 529 4
3 .3 8 5 3 7
4 .0 7 2 0 0
1.52721

Tim e
trend

Domestic
o u tp ut

Ratio,
production
to total
workers

0 .5 6 0 6 7
0.7 859 1
0 .6 1 7 8 6
0 .4 9 4 7 3
0 .2 6 9 8 6
0 .4 1 9 3 6
0 .4 4 8 5 5
0.34851
0 .1 1 2 2 7
0 .5 8 4 1 5
0 .7 7 3 6 5
0 .3 8 9 7 9
0 .2 3 3 3 8
0 .1 8 7 7 9
0.2 472 1
0 .3 1 3 8 6
0 .5 0 9 2 0
0 .0 6 0 8 8
0 .2 8 1 3 8

- 1 .2 3 2 8 0
-1 .4 6 4 4 8
- 0 .5 1 4 5 8
-0 .7 0 4 9 6
-0 .3 8 4 9 4
-0 .4 0 2 1 2
- 0 .1 5 1 6 6
-0 .0 5 3 8 1
- 0 .0 1 5 1 7
0 .1 0 3 0 3
- 0 .8 1 9 4 3
- 0 .3 1 1 0 6
- 0 .1 2 9 4 3
-0 .3 6 6 7 1
- 0 .1 3 2 4 2
0 .1 5 9 3 8
-0 .6 0 7 5 3
0 .0 7 8 4 7
-0 .3 1 8 2 9

- 0 .0 5 9 8 2
0 .0 3 7 9 8
0 .1 6 5 7 6
- 0 .0 4 0 3 3
0 .3 4 8 9 8
0 .1 1 8 8 6
0 .0 8 9 0 5
0 .3 5 0 6 8
0.01571
- 0 .9 2 2 1 0
- 0 .4 9 6 3 3
0 .5 1 4 6 2
0 .1 6 8 1 5
0.36671
0 .1 1 1 6 0
- 0 .0 3 4 7 9
0 .3 0 6 7 2
-0 .6 2 2 7 9
0 .0 0 2 0 6

Lagged
dependent
variable
0 .6 9 0 6 3
0 .6 0 9 6 2
0 .1 4 6 2 4
0 .6 4 6 6 9
0 .3 7 0 6 6
0 .4 0 0 7 5
0 .4 4 6 1 8
0 .5 3 9 7 2
0 .4 4 3 7 5
0 .8 0 6 6 4
1 .2 0 1 8 8
0.2 414 1
0 .4 8 1 2 9
0 .0 1 0 7 9
0 .6 8 6 7 8
0 .4 4 2 6 6
0 .8 8 7 9 8
0 .4 7 5 7 6
0 .9 7 1 4 7

Table F-4.

Method 3: Least-squares growth rates for all industries, 1958-76
Variables
O u tpu t

Industry

1
2
3
4
5
6
7

8
9
10
11

12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50
51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73
74
75

0.35
2.35
-1 .0 2
3.38
3.06
- 0 .9 7
3.01
3 .1 3
2.61
- 0 .0 9
2.6 3
2.23
2.72
4.71
1.37
2 .0 2
4 .2 3
- 0 .8 4
0.12
- 0 .7 0
1.56
3 .5 4
-2 .5 7
2.56
1.29
3 .7 2
3.6 4
0.9 6
2.77
3.57
4 .8 6
5 .6 3
2.25
1.10
2 .9 5
10.29
3.71
7.73
3 .3 0
5.48
3.7 2
0.77
5 .4 3
- 1 .1 5
2.8 9
5.06
4.4 9
4 .4 2
2.81
4.3 8
4 .6 2
6.4 9
5.32
2 .9 5
10.13
9.81
8 .5 3
6 .2 0
3 .5 6
4 .7 3
4 .7 2
3.66
12.26
-0 .3 1
- 0 .0 9
4 .5 5
3.21
1.22
2.59
2.85
1.84
3 .8 3
2.76
6 .0 0
2.4 7

Dairy and po ultry products .................................
Meat animals and liv e s to c k ...................................
C o tto n ...........................................................................
Food and feed grains .............................................
Other agricultural p ro d u c ts ...................................
Forestry and fishery p ro d u c ts ..............................
Agricultural, forestry, and fishery services. . . .
Iron and ferroalloy ores m in in g ............................
Copper ore mining ..................................................
Other nonferrous ore m in in g .................................
Coal m in in g .................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural gas.........................
Stone and clay mining and q u a r r y in g ...............
Chemical and fe rtilizer mineral m in in g .............
New residential building c o n s tru c tio n ...............
New nonresidential building construction
New public u tility co nstru ctio n............................
New highway c o n s tru c tio n ...................................
A ll other new c o n s tru c tio n ...................................
Oil and gas well drilling and e x p lo ra tio n ..........
Maintenance and repair construction ...............
Ordnance ....................................................................
Com plete guided missiles .....................................
Meat products ..........................................................
Dairy p r o d u c ts .........................................................
Canned and frozen foods .....................................
Grain m ill p ro d u c ts ..................................................
Bakery p r o d u c ts .......................................................
Sugar ...........................................................................
Confectionery products ........................................
Alcoholic beverages..................................................
S oft drinks and fla v o rin g s .....................................
Miscellaneous food p ro d u c ts .............................. ..
Tobacco m anufacturing........................................ ..
Fabric, yarn, and thread m ills ..............................
Floor coverings.......................................................
Miscellaneous te x tile g o o d s...................................
Hosiery and k n it g o o d s ........................................
A p p a r e l.......................................................... ............
Miscellaneous fabricated te xtile products . . . ,
Logging......................................................................
Sawmills and planing m ills...................................
M illw o rk, plyw ood, and other wood products
Wooden c o n ta in e rs ................................................
Household f u r n it u r e .............................................
Other fu rn itu re and f ix t u r e s ..............................
Paper p r o d u c ts .......................................................
Paperboard ...............................................................
Newspaper printing and p u b lis h in g ..................
Periodicals and book printing, publishing . . .
Miscellaneous printing and p u b lis h in g .............
Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals . .
A gricultural chemicals ........................................
Miscellaneous chemical pro d u c ts......................
Plastic materials and synthetic r u b b e r ............
Synthetic fib e rs .......................................................
Drugs...........................................................................
Cleaning and to ile t p re p a ra tio n s .......................
Paints and allied p ro d u c ts ...................................
Petroleum refining and related products . . . .
Tires and inner tubes ...........................................
Miscellaneous rubber p r o d u c ts .........................
Plastic prod ucts.......................................................
Leather tanning and industrial le a th e r.............
Footwear and other leather p r o d u c ts .............
G la s s ...........................................................................
Cem ent and concrete p r o d u c ts .........................
Structural clay p ro d u c ts ......................................
P ottery and related products ............................
Miscellaneous stone and clay p r o d u c ts ..........
Blast furnaces and basic steel p ro d u c ts...........
Iron and steel foundries and fo r g in g s .............
Prim ary copper and copper p r o d u c ts .............
Primary alum inum and alum inum products .
Other prim ary nonferrous products ...............




66

O u tpu t
per hour
all persons
7.21
5.45
7.5 6
5.95
5 .4 0
- 2 .6 3
- 0 .4 2
3.49
0 .3 3
0.81
2 .0 9
3.42
2.92
4 .7 6
0 .9 8
- 0 .8 5
0 .4 2
0.07
0.79
- 2 .0 0
- 0 .1 8
3.1 8
-0 .2 1
2.09
4 .4 4
2 .3 5
3.3 0
2 .4 0
3.22
3 .7 3
5.75
4 .1 6
2.22
2 .5 4
3.11
6 .0 5
3.57
6.17
2.91
3.97
4 .7 8
2.57
3 .0 2
2 .4 8
1.21
3.28
3.59
3.07
1.80
3.08
3.1 7
5.3 8
4 .4 0
2 .1 0
8 .3 4
6.35
5.31
3.91
2.87
5.01
3 .2 9
2 .8 0
4 .4 0
2.8 0
1.57
2 .8 6
2.18
3 .5 0
2.53
1.87
2.0 0
2.28
1.84
3.87
1.82

Average
weekly
hours
- 9 .1 8
0.18
- 0 .1 8
- 0 .1 8
- 0 .1 7
- 0 .1 5
- 0 .1 5
0.67
- 0 .1 9
- 0 .0 7
0 .6 8
- 0 .0 0
0 .0 4
0.07
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.01
0.2 7
0.01
0.0 9
- 0 .0 2
- 0 .0 8
- 0 .1 0
0.0 3
- 0 .0 6
-0 .0 8
-0 .3 6
- 0 .0 3
0.19
- 0 .1 6
- 0 .1 0
- 0 .1 3
0 .0 2
0 .0 5
0.13
0.04
- 0 .0 5
-0 .0 1
0.3 6
0.16
- 0 .0 5
- 0 .2 0
- 0 .2 0
- 0 .1 0
- 0 .0 2
- 0 .0 9
- 0 .1 2
- 0 .1 3
- 0 .0 5
0 .0 5
-0 .0 1
- 0 .0 4
0 .0 5
- 0 .0 3
0 .0 3
0.00
- 0 .0 3
0.11
0 .3 4
- 0 .0 5
-0 .1 1
- 0 .0 4
0.0 3
0 .1 5
0.05
-0 .0 1
0 .1 4
0.0 4
0 .2 3
0 .2 4
0.04
0.05
0.0 3

Ratio of
production
w orker hours
to wage and
salary hours
0.0
0 .0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
1.0 2
- 2 .0 9
0.12
- 0 .3 9
- 0 .1 5
0.01
- 0 .1 3
- 0 .5 8
- 0 .1 4
- 0 .4 8
- 0 .4 3
-0 .4 5
-0 .4 9
-0 .1 7
- 0 .3 6
- 0 .1 5
- 0 .3 3
- 0 .2 6
0 .0 5
- 0 .9 4
- 0 .1 2
-0 .2 7
-0 .2 1
- 0 .1 4
- 0 .1 0
-0 .3 7
- 0 .1 7
- 1 .0 8
- 1 .1 5
-0 .3 1
- 0 .6 0
- 0 .8 7
- 0 .7 4
- 0 .1 9
- 0 .0 5
- 0 .7 6
-0 .4 0
- 0 .4 2
- 0 .1 0
-0 .1 1
- 0 .0 2
0.02
- 0 .1 2
- 0 .2 7
- 0 .1 3
- 0 .1 4
- 0 .4 2
- 0 .0 8
0.09
-0 .1 1
-0 .1 0
- 0 .1 8
- 0 .0 9
0 .0 6

Table F-4.

Method 3: Least-squares growth rates for all industries, 1958-76—Continued
Variables
O u tpu t

Industry

76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100

101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116
117
118
119
120
121
122

123
124
125
126
127
128
129
130
131
132
133
134
135
136
137
138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149

4 .0 3
2.55
3.41
1.06
4.0 7
3.7 2
4 .5 8
6 .4 0
4 .4 0
4.7 7
4 .9 6
2.8 4
3.06
4 .0 0
5 .3 2
9.91
3.87
7 .8 0
4.47
3 .8 0
5.30
3.6 6
8 .4 4
7.37
4 .2 5
8 .4 9
5.66
4 .4 3
0.07
4 .5 3
4 .6 4
12.09
13.11
2.52
9.21
9.4 2
10.74
5.78
3.67
4 .3 8
4 .7 0
2 .4 2
- 1 .0 5
3 .3 0
5.31
9 .5 5
5.82
2.61
7.93
3.3 9
6.11
3.9 3
3.16
4.91
2.85
4 .3 8
0.99
3.6 0
4 .3 2
5.09
3 .9 2
0 .6 4
-0 .8 9
8 .2 6
2 .3 0
3.97
4 .3 2
3.7 6
3.3 5
4 .9 4
7.99
8.39
4 .4 8
3.97

Metal containers ..................................................
Heating apparatus and plum bing fixtures . . .
Fabricated structural m e ta l.................................
Screw machine p ro d u c ts .....................................
Metal stampings.......................................................
C utlery, handtools, and general handward. . .
Other fabricated metal p ro d u c ts .......................
Engines, turbines, and g e n e ra to rs ....................
Farm m achinery .....................................................
Construction, mining, and oilfield machinery
Material handling equipm ent ............................
M etalworking m achines........................................
Special industry m a c h in e ry .................................
General industrial m achinery ............................
Machine shop p ro d u c ts ........................................
Computers and peripheral e q u ip m e n t.............
Typew riters and other office equipm ent . ... .
Service industry m achines...................................
Electric transmission e q u ip m e n t.......................
Electrical industrial ap p aratu s............................
Household ap p lia n c e s ...........................................
Electric lighting and w ir in g .................................
Radio and T V receiving s e t s ..............................
Telephone and telegraph ap paratus..................
Radio and com m unication eq u ip m e n t.............
Electronic components ......................................
Miscellaneous electrical p r o d u c ts ....................
M o tor vehicles .......................................................
A ir c r a ft......................................................................
Ship and boat building and r e p a ir ....................
Railroad e q u ip m e n t .............................................
Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a r t s .......................
Other transportation e q u ip m e n t.......................
Scientific and controlling instruments ..........
Medical and dental instrum ents.........................
Optical and ophthalm ic e q u ip m e n t..................
Photographic equipm ent and supplies.............
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices .
Jewelry and silverware...........................................
Musical instruments and sporting goods . . . .
Other miscellaneous m anufactured products.
Railroad tra n s p o rta tio n ........................................
Local transit, in tercity buses..............................
Truck transportation ...........................................
Water tra n s p o rta tio n .............................................
A ir tra n s p o rta tio n ..................................................
Pipeline tra n s p o rta tio n ........................................
Transportation services........................................
Com m unication, except radio and T V .............
Radio and T V broadcasting.................................
Electric utilities .....................................................
Gas u tilitie s ...............................................................
Water and sanitary services.................................
Wholesale tr a d e .......................................................
Retail tr a d e ...............................................................
Banking ......................................................................
Credit agencies and financial brokers...............
Insurance....................................................................
Owner-occupied real e s ta te .................................
Real estate.................................................................
Hotels and lodging p la c e s ...................................
Personal and repair services.................................
Barber and beauty shops ...................................
Miscellaneous business services .......................
A d v e rtis in g ...............................................................
Miscellaneous professional se rvices..................
A utom obile re p a ir..................................................
M otion pictures .....................................................
Amusements and recreation services...............
Doctors' and dentists' services .........................
H ospitals....................................................................
Other medical services...........................................
Educational se rv ic e s .............................................
N on p ro fit o rg a n iz a tio n s ......................................




67

O u tpu t
per hour
all persons
2.8 9
2.8 5
1.15
- 0 .0 8
2.5 2
2.15
2.43
4 .0 4
2.6 3
1.38
2.10
1.17
2.21
1.94
2 .4 4
4.31
0.97
3 .8 5
2.59
2 .1 8
4.19
0 .7 0
6.7 8
4.5 7
3.37
4.4 7
3 .6 4
2.56
1.79
2.3 8
3.1 9
9 .3 6
0.88
1.42
3 .4 0
6 .2 3
6.0 3
5.08
3 .2 0
2.91
4 .6 4
5.37
0 .1 4
1.63
8 .0 3
5 .0 2
8 .2 4
- 1 .6 4
5.73
- 0 .3 7
4 .5 2
3 .8 0
- 0 .7 4
3.1 4
1.39
0.0 2
-2 .8 1
1.55

Average
weekly
hours
0 .1 8
0 .0 4
-0 .0 1
0.0 6
- 0 .0 5
0.0 0
-0 .0 2
0 .1 0
0.07
0 .1 5
-

0.00

0.01
- 0 .0 3
0.08
0 .0 6
0 .0 0
- 0 .1 6
- 0 .0 6
-0 .0 1
0.01
- 0 .0 2
-0 .0 5
- 0 .1 0
- 0 .0 7
- 0 .0 2
- 0 .0 4
0.11
0.09
- 0 .0 2
- 0 .0 8
0 .0 2
- 0 .1 6
- 0 .3 2
0.57
- 0 .0 8
- 0 .1 4
0 .0 0
- 0 .0 2
- 0 .3 2
- 0 .1 0
-0 .0 6
0 .3 9
- 1 .1 3
- 0 .1 3
-1 .5 1
- 0 .8 4
0.17
- 0 .4 2
- 0 .0 9
0 .1 4
0.1 0
0.02
0 .1 0
- 0 .2 5
- 1 .0 5
- 0 .1 0
- 0 .0 4
- 0 .0 4

0.0

0.0

3.0 0
1.79
0.9 7
- 1 .9 2
1.76
1 .9 0
0.1 3
2.7 6
2.7 0
0 .7 6
1.2 0
3.4 4
- 1 .7 3
1.20
1.48

-0 .2 5
-1 .3 4
-0 .3 0
-0 .4 6
-0 .3 7
-0 .4 1
- 0 .2 0
- 0 .0 7
0.4 0
- 0 .5 3
-0 .8 1
-0 .8 1
- 0 .8 0
0.21
-0 .2 7

Ratio of
production
worker hours
to wage and
salary hours
0 .0 3
- 0 .1 0
- 0 .0 8
- 0 .0 2
0.02
-0 .1 1
- 0 .1 5
0 .0 9
- 0 .0 3
0 .1 2
- 0 .1 9
- 0 .1 3
-0 .5 2
- 0 .1 7
0.11
- 1 .9 9
- 2 .8 3
0.05
0.1 7
0 .1 8
0.1 2
- 0 .1 0
- 0 .2 0
-0 .0 2
-0 .9 2
-0 .9 5
0.20
0.08
-0 .7 1
- 0 .3 8
0 .4 0
0.1 6
- 0 .1 5
- 0 .0 7
- 0 .3 8
- 0 .5 8
- 1 .1 5
0.06
- 0 .3 9
- 0 .4 0
- 0 .3 2

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0 0

0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0
0.0

Table F-4.

Method 3: Least-squares growth rates for all industries, 1958-76—Continued
Variables
Industry

150
151
152
153
154
161

O u tp u t

Post office ..................................................................................................................................
C om m odity Credit C o rp o ra to n .............................................................................................
Other Federal e n te rp ris e s .........................................................................................................
Local government passenger tra n s it.....................................................................................
Other State and local g o vern m en t........................................................................................
Private households......................................................................................................................
NO TE:
For to tal m anufacturing industries:
OPH = 1.529 + .3 7 6 O U T + .0 8 3 PWR
(6 .1) (8 .5 )
(.3 2 )
R-squared = .4 4 0 5




D.W .
OPH
OUT
PWR

68

=
=
=
=

1.52
0.0
3.3 4
1.71
4.41
- 2 .4 4

O u tpu t
per hour
all persons
0.2 8
0 .0
0.3 6
-1 .1 1
1.17
0.1 6

Average
weekly
hours
- 0 .1 6
0 .0
- 0 .1 6
- 0 .2 6
-0 .3 1
- 0 .6 3

1 .9 2 7 0
o u tp u t per hour all persons
constant (1 9 7 2 ) dollar ou tp u t
production w orker hours/wage and salary hours

Ratio of
production
w orker hours
to wage and
salary hours
0 .0
0.0
0.0
0 .0
0 .0
0.0

Appendix G: Economic Growth
Sectoring Plan

Industry sector number and title

Bureau of
Economic Analysis
input-output
sector

Standard Industrial Classification (SIC ) 1967

A griculture, forestry, and fishery
1
2
3
4
5
6
7

Dairy and po ultry products ................................................
Meat animals and liv e s to c k ..................................................
C o tto n ..........................................................................................
Food and feed g rain s...............................................................
O ther agricultural p ro d u c ts ..................................................
Forestry and fishery p ro d u c ts .............................................
A gricultural, forestry, and fishery services ....................

1.0 1-1 .02
1.03
2.01
2 .0 2
2 .0 3 -2 .0 7
3 .0 0
4 .0 0

01
01
01
01
01
0 7 4 , 0 8 , 091
0 7 1 ,0 7 2 3 , 0 7 3 , pt. 0 7 2 9 , 0 8 5 , 098

Mining
8
9
10
11
12
13
14

Iron and ferroalloy ores mining ........................................
Copper ore m ining .................................................................
Other nonferrous ore m in in g ................................................
Coal mining ..............................................................................
Crude petroleum and natural gas ......................................
Stone and clay mining and quarrying.................................
Chemical and fe rtilizer mineral m in in g ............................

5.0 0
6.01
6.0 2
7.00
8 .0 0
9 .0 0
10.00

1 0 1 1 ,1 0 6
102
1 0 3-10 9 (except 106)
1 1 ,1 2
1 3 1 1 ,1 3 2 1
14 (except 147)
147

11.01
11.02
11.03
11.04
11.05
1 1 .0 5 0 3 -1 1 .0 5 0 4
1 2 .0 1 -1 2 .0 2

pt.
pt.
pt.
p t.
pt.
pt.
pt.

1 3 .0 2 -1 3 .0 7
13.01
14.01
1 4 .0 2 -1 4 .0 6
1 4 .0 7 -1 4 .1 3
1 4 .1 4 -1 4 .1 7
14.18
14.19
14 .20
14.21
1 4 .22-14.2 3
1 4 .2 4 -1 4 .3 2
15.01 15.02
1 6 .0 1 -1 6 .0 4
17.01
1 7 .0 2 -1 7 .1 0
1 8 .01-18.0 3
18.04
1 9 .01-19.0 3
20.01
2 0 .0 2 -2 0 .0 4
2 0 .0 5 -2 0 .0 9
2 1 .0 0
2 2 .0 1 -2 2 .0 4
2 3 .0 1 -2 3 .0 7
2 4 .01-24.0 7
2 5 .0 0
26.01
2 6 .0 2 -2 6 .0 4

19 (except 1925)
1925
201
202
203
204
205
206
207
2 0 8 2 -2 0 8 5
2 0 8 6 -2 0 8 7
209
21
2 2 1 1 ,2 2 2 1 ,2 2 3 1 ,2 2 4 1 , 2 2 6 ,2 2 8
227
229
225
23 (except 2 3 9 ), 3 9 9 9 9 6
23 9
2411
24 2
2 4 3 ,2 4 9
24 4
251
2 5 2 -2 5 9
26 (except 26 5)
265
2711
2 7 2 -2 7 4

C onstruction
15
16
17
18
19
20
21

New residential building c o n s tru c tio n ..............................
New nonresidential building c o n s tru c tio n .......................
New public u tility c o n stru ctio n ...........................................
New highway c o n s tru c tio n ..................................................
A ll other new c o n s tru c tio n ..................................................
Oil and gas well drilling and e x p lo r a tio a .........................
Maintenance and repair co nstru ctio n.................................

1 5, pt.
15, pt.
15, pt.
16, pt.
15, pt.
138
15, pt.

16,
16,
16,
17
16,

pt. 1 7
p t. 17, pt. 6561
pt. 1 7
p t. 17

16, pt. 17, 138

M anufacturing
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
45
46
47
48
49
50

Ordnance ...................................................................................
C om plete guided missiles .....................................................
M eat p ro d u c ts ...........................................................................
D airy p r o d u c ts .........................................................................
Canned and frozen foods .....................................................
Grain m ill p ro d u c ts .................................................................
Bakery p r o d u c ts ......................................................................
S u g a r.............................................................................................
Confectionery products .......................................................
Alcoholic beverages.................................................................
S oft drinks and fla v o rin g s .....................................................
M iscellaneous food p ro d u c ts ................................................
Tobacco m anufacturing .......................................................
Fabric, yarn, and thread m i l l s .............................................
Floor co verin g s.........................................................................
Miscellaneous te x tile g o o d s ..................................................
Hosiery and k n it g o o d s ..........................................................
A p p a r e l........................................................................................
Miscellaneous fabricated te x tile p r o d u c ts .......................
Lo g g in g ........................................................................................
Sawmills and planing m ills .....................................................
M illw o rk , plyw oo d, and other wood products .............
Wooden c o n ta in e rs .................................................................
Household f u r n it u r e ...............................................................
O ther fu rn itu re and f ix t u r e s ................................................
Paper p r o d u c ts .........................................................................
Paperboard ................................................................................
Newspaper printing and p u b lis h in g ...................................
Periodicals and book printing, publishing .......................




69

Economic Growth Sectoring Plan—Continued

Industry sector number and title

51
52
53
54
55
56
57
58
59
60
61
62
63
64
65
66
67
68
69
70
71
72
73

Miscellaneous printing and p u b lis h in g ..............................
Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals ....................
Agricultural ch em icals............................................................
Miscellaneous chemical p ro d u c ts ........................................
Plastic materials and synthetic r u b b e r ..............................
Synthetic fib e rs .........................................................................
Drugs ..........................................................................................
Cleaning and to ile t p re p a ra tio n s ...........................................
Paints and allied products .....................................................
Petroleum refining and related p ro d u c ts............................
Tires and inner t u b e s ...............................................................
Miscellaneous rubber p r o d u c ts .............................................
Plastic p r o d u c ts .........................................................................
Leather tanning and industrial leather.................................
Footwear and other leather p r o d u c ts .................................
Glass .............................................................................................
Cement and concrete p ro d u c ts .............................................
Structural clay products .......................................................
Pottery and related p r o d u c ts ................................................
Miscellaneous stone and clay p r o d u c ts ..............................
Blast furnaces and basic steel p ro d u c ts ..............................
Iron and steel foundries and fo rg in g s .................................
Primary copper and copper p r o d u c ts .................................

74
75

Primary alum inum and alum inum p r o d u c ts ....................
O ther prim ary nonferrous p r o d u c ts ...................................

76
77
78
79
80
81
82
83
84
85
86
87
88
89
90
91
92
93
94
95
96
97
98
99
100
101
102
103
104
105
106
107
108
109
110
111
112
113
114
115
116

Metal co n ta in e rs .........................................................................
Heating apparatus and plum bing f ix t u r e s .........................
Fabricated structural m e ta l.....................................................
Screw machine products .......................................................
Metal s ta m p in g s .........................................................................
C utlery, handtools, and general h a rd w are.........................
Other fabricated m etal p ro d u c ts ...........................................
Engines, turbines, and g e n e ra to rs ........................................
Farm m achinery ......................................................................
Construction, m ining, and oilfield m a c h in e ry ..................
Material handling equipm ent ................................................
M etalw orking m a c h in e s ..........................................................
Special industry m achinery ..................................................
General industrial m a c h in e r y ................................................
Machine shop products ..........................................................
Computers and peripheral e q u ip m e n t.................................
Typew riters and other o ffice eq u ip m e n t............................
Service industry machines .....................................................
Electric transmission e q u ip m e n t...........................................
Electrical industrial apparatus .............................................
Household ap p lia n ce s...............................................................
Electric lighting and wiring ..................................................
Radio and T V receiving s e ts ..................................................
Telephone and telegraph apparatus ...................................
Radio and com m unication e q u ip m e n t..............................
Electronic components ..........................................................
Miscellaneous electrical p r o d u c ts ........................................
M otor v e h ic le s ...........................................................................
A ircra ft ........................................................................................
Ship and boat building and r e p a ir ........................................
Railroad e q u ip m e n t.................................................................
Motorcycles, bicycles, and p a r t s ...........................................
O ther transportation e q u ip m e n t...........................................
Scientific and controlling instruments ..............................
Medical and dental in s tr u m e n ts ...........................................
Optical and ophthalm ic equipm ent ...................................
Photographic equipm ent and supplies ..............................
Watches, clocks, and clock-operated devices....................
Jewelry and s ilv e rw a re ............................................................
Musical instruments and sporting g o o d s ............................
Other miscellaneous m anufactured p r o d u c ts ..................

Bureau of
Econom ic Analysis
input-output
sector

2 6 .0 5 -2 6 .0 8
27.01
2 7 .0 2 -2 7 .0 3
2 7 .04
2 8 .0 1 -2 8 .0 2
2 8 .0 3 -2 8 .0 4
29.01
2 9 .0 2 -2 9 .0 3
3 0 .0 0
3 1 .0 1 -3 1 .0 3
32.01
3 2 .0 2 -3 2 .0 3
3 2 .0 4
3 3 .0 0
3 4 .0 1 -3 4 .0 3
3 5 .0 1 -3 5 .0 2
36.01 & 3 6 .1 0 -3 6 1 4
3 6 .0 2 -3 6 .0 5
3 6 .0 6 -3 6 .0 9
3 6 .1 5 -3 6 .2 2
37.01
3 7 .0 2 -3 7 .0 4
3 8 .0 1 ,3 8 .0 7 , 3 8 .1 0 ,
3 8 12
3 8 .0 4 , 3 8 .0 8 , 38.11
3 8 .0 2 , 3 8 .0 3 , 3 8 .0 5 ,
38 0 6 , 38 0 9 , 38 13,
38 14
3 9 .0 1 -3 9 .0 2
4 0 .0 1 -4 0 .0 3
4 0 .0 4 -4 0 .0 9
41.01
4 1 .0 2
4 2 .0 1 -4 2 .0 3
42 .04-42.1 1
4 3 .0 1 -4 3 .0 2
4 4 .0 0
4 5 .0 1 -4 5 .0 3
4 6 .0 1 -4 6 .0 4
4 7 .0 1 -4 7 .0 4
4 8 .0 1 -4 8 .0 6
4 9 .0 1 -4 9 .0 7
5 0 .0 0
51.01
5 1 .0 2 -5 1 .0 4
5 2 .0 1 -5 2 .0 5
5 3 .0 1 -5 3 .0 3
5 3 .0 4 -5 3 .0 8
5 4 .0 4 -5 4 .0 7
5 5 .0 1 -5 5 .0 3
5 6 .0 1 -5 6 .0 2
56 .03
5 6 .04
5 7 .0 1 -5 7 .0 3
5 8 .0 1 -5 8 .0 5
5 9 .0 1 -5 9 .0 3
6 0 .0 1 -6 0 .0 4
6 1 .0 1 -6 1 .0 2
6 1 .0 3 -6 1 .0 4
61 .0 5
6 1 .0 6 -6 1 .0 7
6 2 .0 1 -6 2 .0 3
6 2 .0 4 -6 2 .0 6
6 3 .0 1 -6 3 .0 2
6 3 .03
62 .07
64.01
6 4 .0 2 -6 4 .0 4
6 4 .0 5 -6 4 .1 2

Standard Industrial Classification (SIC ) 1967

2 7 5 -2 7 9
281 (except 2 8 1 9 5 )
287
2 8 6 1 ,2 8 9
2 8 2 1 -2 8 2 2
2 8 2 3 -2 8 2 4
28 3
28 4
2851
29
3011
3 0 2 1 ,3 0 3 1 ,3 0 6 9
3079
3 1 1 1 ,3 1 2 1
3 1 3 1 ,3 1 4 ,3 1 5 1 , 3 1 6 1 ,3 1 7 , 3 1 9 9
3 2 1 1 ,3 2 2 ,3 2 3 1
3 2 4 1 ,3 2 7
325
32 6
3 2 8 1 , 329
331
3 3 2 , 3 3 9 1 ,3 3 9 9
3 3 3 1 ,3 3 5 1 ,3 3 5 7 , 3 3 6 2
3 3 3 4 ,2 8 1 9 5 ,3 3 5 2 ,3 3 6 1
3 3 3 2 ,3 3 3 3 ,3 3 3 9 , 3 3 4 1 ,3 3 5 6 , 3 3 6 9 ,
3 3 92
3 4 1 1 ,3 4 9 1
343
344
345
3461
342
34 7 -3 4 9 (except 3 4 9 1 )
351
3 5 22
3 5 3 1 -3 5 3 3
3 5 3 4 -3 5 3 7
35 4
35 5
356
35 9
3 5 7 3 -3 5 7 4
35 7 (except 3 5 7 3 and 3 5 7 4 )
358
361
362
363
36 4
365
3661
3 6 62
367
369
371
37 2
37 3
37 4
3751
37 9
3 8 1 1 ,3 8 2
38 4
3 8 3 1 ,3 8 5 1
3861
387
3 9 1 ,3 9 6 1
3 9 3 , 394
3 9 5 , 3 9 6 , 39 9 (except 3 9 9 9 6 )

Transportation
117
118
119
120

Railroad transportation ..........................................................
Local transit, intercity buses ................................................
Truck transportation ...............................................................
W ater transportation ...............................................................




65.01
6 5 .0 2
6 5 .03
6 5 .0 4

70

4 0 ,4 7 4
41
42, 473
44

Economic Growth Sectoring Plan—Continued

Industry sector number and title

121
122
123

A ir transportation ....................................................................
Pipeline transportation ..........................................................
Transportation services ..........................................................

Bureau of
Econom ic Analysis
input-output
sector
6 5 .0 5
6 5 .0 6
6 5 .0 7

Standard Industrial Classification (S IC ) 1967

45
46
47 (except 4 7 3 and 47 4)

Communications
124
125

Com m unication, except radio and T V ..............................
Radio and T V broadcasting ..................................................

6 6 .0 0
6 7 .0 0

48 (except 48 3 )
483

68.01
6 8 .02
6 8 .0 3

4 9 1 , pt. 49 3
4 9 2 , pt. 49 3
4 9 4 -4 9 7 , pt. 49 3

69.01
69 .02

50
5 2 -5 9 , 7 3 9 6 , p t. 8 0 99

70.01
7 0 .0 2 -7 0 .0 3
7 0 .0 4 -7 0 .0 5
71.01
7 1 .02

60
6 1 ,6 2 ,6 7
6 3 -6 4
na
65 (except pt. 6 5 6 1 ), 66

70
72 (except 7 2 3 , 7 2 4 ), 76 (except 7 6 92,
7 6 94 and p t 76 99)
7 2 3 ,7 2 4
73 (except 7 3 1 , 7 3 9 6 ), 7 6 9 2 , 7 6 9 4 , pt. 7699
731
8 1 ,8 9 (except 8 9 2 1 )
75
78
79
8 0 1 -8 0 4
8061
0 7 2 2 , 8 0 7 , 80 9 (except pt. 8 0 9 9 )
82
8 4 ,8 6 ,8 9 2 1

Public utilities
126
127
128

Electric u t i l i t i e s .........................................................................
Gas utilities .................................................................................
Water and sanitary services.....................................................

Trade
129
130

Wholesale trade .........................................................................
Retail trade .............................. ..................................................

Finance, insurance, and real estate
131
132
133
134
135

Banking ........................................................................................
Credit agencies and financial b r o k e r s ................................
Insurance ......................................................................................
Owner occupied real estate ..................................................
Real e s t a t e ...................................................................................

Other services
136
137

Hotels and lodging p la c e s .......................................................
Personal and repair services ..................................................

72.01
7 2 .02

138
139
140
141
142
143
144
145
146
147
148
149

Barber and beauty shops .......................................................
Miscellaneous business services ...........................................
Advertising . . . ............................................................................
Miscellaneous professional services......................................
A utom obile repair.......................................................................
......................................................................
M otion pictures
Amusements and recreation services...................................
Doctors' and dentists' s e rv ic e s .............................................
H ospitals........................................................................................
Other medical services...............................................................
Educational services..................................................................
N o n p ro fit organizations .......................................................

7 2 .0 3
73.01
73 .02
73 .03
7 5 .0 0
76.01
76.02
77.01
7 7 .02
7 7 .03
77 .0 4
77 .05

Government enterprises
150
151
152
153
154

Post office ...................................................................................
C om m odity C redit C o r p o ra tio n ...........................................
Other Federal enterprises .....................................................
Local governm ent passenger tra n s it......................................
O ther State and local government ......................................

79.01
7 9 .0 1 ,7 9 .0 3

na
na
na
na
na

80.01

na

8 1 .0 0
8 2 .0 0
8 3 .0 0

na
na
na

8 4 .0 0
8 5 .0 0
8 6 .0 0
8 7 .0 0

na
na
na
na

78.01
7 8 .0 3
7 8 . 0 2 , 7 8 .0 4

Imports
155

D irectly allocated im p o r t s .....................................................

Dummy industries
156
157
158

Business travel, en tertainm ent, and g ifts ............................
O ffice s u p p lie s ...........................................................................
Scrap, used and secon dh and..................................................

Special industries
159
160
161
162

G overnm ent in d u s tr y ...............................................................
Rest of the w orld in d u s tr y .....................................................
H ouseholds...................................................................................
Inventory valuation a d ju s tm e n t...........................................




71

Appendix H

Data Sources

Source documents, for the most part, are continuing
publications; all issues have been examined.

Census o f Governments, Bureau of the Census.
Public Employment, Bureau of the Census.
U.S. Budget Appendix, 1963-78, Office of Management and
Budget, Executive Office of the President.
Military Prime Contract Awards by Federal Supply Classifi­
cation, OASD-Comptroller, Department of Defense.
Monthly Status o f Funds, OASD-Comptroller, Department
of Defense.
Shipments o f Defense Oriented Industries, MA-175, Bureau
of the Census.

Macroeconomic projections

National Income and Product Accounts, Bureau of Eco­
nomic Analysis, U.S. Department of Commerce.
Survey o f Current Business, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Current Population Reports, Bureau of the Census, U.S.
Department of Commerce.
Employment and Earnings, Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S.
Department of Labor.
Statistical Abstract o f the United States, Bureau of the
Census.
Farm Income Statistics, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Business Conditions Digest, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Social Security Bulletin, Annual Statistical Supplement,
Social Security Administration, U.S. Department of
Health, Education, and Welfare.
Statistics o f Income Report, Internal Revenue Code,
Internal Revenue Service, U.S. Department of the
Treasury.
Aggregate Labor Force Projections, Bureau of Labor
Statistics.

Intermediate demand projections

Input-Output Structure o f the U.S. Economy, 1958, 1963,
and 1967, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Census o f Manufactures, 1963, 1967, Bureau of the Census.
Current Industrial Reports, Bureau of the Census.
Minerals Yearbook, Bureau of Mines, U.S. Department of
the Interior.
Census o f Business, Bureau of the Census.
Annual Survey o f Manufactures, Bureau of the Census.
Statistical Abstract o f the United States, Bureau of the
Census.
Output and employment

Final demand projections

Agricultural Statistics, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Annual Survey o f Manufactures, Bureau of the Census.

National Income and Product Accounts, Bureau of Eco­
nomic Analysis.
Input-Output Structure o f the U.S. Economy, 1958, 1963,
1967, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Survey o f Current Business, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Current Population Reports, Bureau of the Census.
Census o f Manufactures, 1967 and 1972, Bureau of the
Census.
Interindustry Transactions in New Structures and Equip­
ment, 1963 and 1967, Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Capital Stocks Data Base, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
U.S. Exports by 2-, 3-, and 4-Digit SIC EA675, Bureau of
the Census.
U.S. Exports by 8-Digit SIC FT610, Bureau of the Census.
U.S. Exports, Commodity Schedule FT410, Bureau of the
Census.
U.S. Imports for Consumption and General Imports,
IA275, Bureau of the Census.
U.S. Imports TSUSA, Commodity by Country, FT246,
Bureau of the Census.
Construction Review, Industry and Trade Administration,
U.S. Department of Commerce.




B est’s Aggregates and Averages, A.M. Best Co.

Business Income Tax Receipts, Internal Revenue Service,
U.S. Department of the Treasury.
Census o f Manufactures, Bureau of the Census.
Compendium o f National Health Expenditures, U.S. De­
partment of Health, Education, and Welfare.
County Business Patterns, Bureau of the Census.
Employment and Earnings, Bureau of Labor Statistics.
Farm Income Statistics, U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Gas Facts, American Gas Association.
Governmental Finances, Bureau of the Census.
Highway Statistics, U.S. Department of Transportation.
Hospital Statistics, American Hospital Association.
Minerals Yearbook, Bureau of Mines, U.S. Department of
the Interior.
National Income and Product Accounts, Bureau of Eco­
nomic Analysis.
Statistical Abstract o f the United States, Bureau of the
Census.
Statistics o f Communications, Common Carriers, U.S.
Federal Communications Commission.
72

Statistics o f Privately-Owned Electric Utilities, Federal
Power Commission.
Statistics o f Publicly-Owned Electric Utilities, Federal
Power Commission.
The Franchised New Car and Truck Dealer Story, National
Automobile Dealers Association.




73

Transport Statistics in the U.S., U.S. Interstate Commerce
Commission.
Office of Productivity and Technology data base, Bureau of
Labor Statistics.
Construction Reports, Bureau of the Census.




Time Series Data for #
Input-Output Industries
For researchers in business and economics
A comprehensive set of data for 1958-76 —
Current-dollar output
Constant-dollar output
Deflators
Employment

Among the manufacturing and
nonmanufacturing industries included are —
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•
•

Dairy and poultry products
Meat animals and livestock
Iron and ferroalloy ore mining
Copper ore mining
New residential building construction
New nonresidential building construction
Meat products
Diary products
Industrial inorganic and organic chemicals
Agricultural chemicals
Medical and dental instruments
Optical and ophthalmic equipment
Railroad transportation
Local transit, intercity buses
Banking
Credit agencies and financial brokers
Automobile repair
Motion pictures

Fill out and mail this coupon to
BLS Regional Office nearest you
or
Superintendent of Documents,
U.S. Government Printing Office,
Washington, D.C. 20402.
Make checks payable to
Superintendent of Documents.






t

Bureau of Labor Statistics
Regional Offices

Region I
1603 JFK Federal Building
Government Center
Boston, Mass. 02203
Phone: (617) 223-6761

Region IV
1371 Peachtree Street, N.E.
Atlanta, Ga. 30309
Phone: (404) 881-4418

Region V
Region II
Suite 3400
1515 Broadway
New York, N.Y. 10036
Phone: (212) 944-3121

Region III
3535 Market Street

P.O. Box 13309
Philadelphia, Pa. 19101
Phone: (215) 596-1154




9th Floor
Federal Office Building
230 S. Dearborn Street
Chicago, III. 60604
Phone: (312) 353-1880

Region VI
Second Floor
555 Griffin Square Building
Dallas, Tex. 75202
Phone: (214) 767-6971

Regions VII and VIII
911 Walnut Street
Kansas City, Mo. 64106
Phone: (816) 374-2481

Regions IX and X
450 Golden Gate Avenue
Box 36017
San Francisco, Calif. 94102
Phone: (415) 556-4678