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J O IN T C O M M IT T E E P R IN T
STUDY PAPER NO. 6
THE EXTENT AND NATURE OF
FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
BY
Bureau of Labor Statistics, U.S. Department of Labor
MATERIALS PREPARED IN CONNECTION WITH THE
STUDY OF EMPLOYMENT, GROWTH, AND
PRICE LEVELS
FOR CONSIDERATION BY THE
JOINT ECONOMIC COMMITTEE
CONGRESS OF THE UNITED STATES
NOVEMBER, 19, 1959
Printed for the use of the Joint Economic Committee
UNITED STATES
GOVERNMENT PRINTING OFFICE
WASHINGTON : 1959
47884
For sale by the Superintendent of Documents, U.S. Government Printing Office
Washington 25, D.O. - Price 25 cents
J O IN T E C O N O M IC C O M M IT T E E
(Created pursuant to sec. 5(a) of Public Law 304, 79th Cong.)
PAUL H. DOUGLAS, Illinois, Chairman
WRIGHT PATMAN, Texas, Vice Chairman
SENATE
HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
JOHN SPARKMAN, Alabama
RICHARD BOLLING, Missouri
J. WILLIAM FULBRIGHT, Arkansas
HALE BOGGS, Louisiana
JOSEPH C. O’MAHONEY, Wyoming
HENRY S. REUSS, Wisconsin
FRANK M. COFFIN, Maine
JOHN F. KENNEDY, Massachusetts
PRESCOTT BUSH, Connecticut
THOMAS B. CURTIS, Missouri
JOHN MARSHALL BUTLER, Maryland
CLARENCE E. KILBURN, New York
WILLIAM B. WIDNALL, New Jersey
JACOB K. JAVITS, New York
Study
of
E m ploym ent, G r o w th ,
and
P r ic e L e v e l s
(Pursuant to S. Con. Res. 13,86th Cong., 1st sess.)
O t t o E c k s t e in , Technical Director
W. L e h m a n , Administrative Officer
W. K n o w l e s , Special Economic Counsel
John
Jam es
II
This is part of a series of papers being prepared for con
sideration by the Joint Economic Committee in connection
with their “ Study of Employment, Growth, and Price Levels.”
The committee and the committee staff neither approve nor
disapprove of the findings of the individual authors. The
findings are being presented in this form to obtain the widest
possible comment before the committee prepares its report.
in
LETTERS OF TRANSMITTAL
N
ovem ber
13, 1959.
To Members of the Joint Economic Committee:
Submitted herewith for the consideration of the members of the
Joint Economic Committee and others is Study Paper No. 6 “ The
Extent and Nature of Frictional Unemployment.”
This is among a number of subjects which the Joint Economic
Committee has requested scholars to examine and report on to pro
vide factual and analytic materials for consideration in the preparation
of the staff and committee reports for the study of “ Employment,
Growth, and Price Levels.”
The papers are being printed and distributed not only for the use
of the committee members but also to obtain the review and comment
of other experts during the committee’s consideration of the materials.
The findings are entirely those of the authors, and the committee and
the committee staff indicate neither approval nor disapproval by this
publication.
Paul H.
D o u g la s ,
Chairman, Joint Economic Committee.
U.S.
D e p a r tm e n t o f L a b o r,
B u r e a u o f L a b o r S ta tis tic s ,
Washington 25 , B.C., November S, 1959.
Hon.
Paul
H.
D o u g la s ,
U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.
D e a r S e n a t o r D o u g l a s : I transmit herewith the report, “ The
Extent and Nature of Frictional Unemployment,” which was prepared
at your request by the Bureau of Labor Statistics. A supplement to
this report, dealing with unemployment in cyclically vulnerable and
chronically distressed areas, is in preparation, and will be transmitted
separately upon its completion.
The present report identifies and measures the various types of
unemployment which are to be expected even in times of prosperity.
Sources of data which have not been previously exploited in the same
way have been used to elicit a considerable amount of new information.
I have been privileged to appear before you regularly during the
past several years to deliver testimony and submit reports in which
emphasis has been given to the problem of unemployment. During
this long period of fruitful cooperation between the Bureau of Labor
Statistics and your committee, your committee has stood as patron
and sponsor for a number of useful studies and provided a forum for
the dissemination of wanted information.
It is my hope that the information contained in the present report
will contribute further to the general understanding of the nature of
unemployment and lead us closer to the day when its harmful aspects
can be eliminated or greatly mitigated.
VI
LETTERS OF TRANSMITTAL
This report was compiled in the Bureau’s Division of Manpower
and Employment Statistics, Harold Goldstein, Acting Chief. It was
prepared under the supervision and guidance of Joseph S. Zeisel by
Robert L. Stein with substantial assistance contributed by Messrs.
Arnold Katz, Irving Stern, and Herman Travis.
Sincerely yours,
Ew an
C la g u e ,
Commissioner of Labor Statistics.
N
Hon.
Paul
H.
ovem ber
3, 1959.
D o u g la s ,
Chairman, Joint Economic Committee,
U.S. Senate, Washington, D.C.
D e a r S e n a t o r D o u g l a s : Transmitted herewith is the sixth in the
series of papers being prepared for the study of “ Employment, Growth,
and Price Levels.” As is noted in the transmittal letter to you from
Commissioner Clague, this paper has been prepared by the Bureau of
Labor Statistics.
Additional papers in the series are being prepared by outside con
sultants and members of the staff and deal with studies of price
changes, economic growth and other aspects of employment and
unemployment. All papers are presented as prepared by the authors
for consideration and comment bv the committee and staff.
O tto E
c k s t e in ,
Technical Director,
Study of Employment, Growth, and Price levels.
CONTENTS
Summary______________________________________________________________
Introduction_______________________________________________________
The extent of short-term frictional unemployment__________________
Long-term employment____________________________________________
Structural employment_____________________________________________
Chapter I. Short- and long-term unemployment_________________________
Current monthly survey data______________________________________
Annual work experience survey data________________________________
Characteristics of the short- and long-term unemployed in 1957-------Age and sex___________________________________________________
Marital status_________________________________________________
Color_________________________________________________________
Industry________________________________ ______________________
Occupation____________________________________________________
Long-term unemployed as a percent of all workers______________
Appendix I to chapter I____________________________________________
Source of duration and turnover data__________________________
Appendix II to chater I ____________________________________________
Selection of period for study___________________________________
Chapter II. Turnover, or gross changes, in unemployment---------------------How much turnover_______________________________________________
Patterns of gross changes in labor force and unemployment_________
Patterns of gross changes between employment and unemployment, _
Chapter III. Unemployment associated with job shifts__________________
Summary of results________________________________________________
Frictional unemployment due to mobility___________________________
Unemployment related to involuntary and job changing____________
Duration of unemployment________________________________________
Effect of differences in mobility on unemployment rates_____________
Age and sex_______________________ ________________________________
Occupation and industry___________________________________________
Conclusion_________________________________________________________
Chapter IV. Seasonal unemployment___________________________________
Seasonal unemployment in 1957________________ s___________________
Appendix to chapter IV ____________________________________________
Technical note on seasonal unemployment_____________________
Chapter V. Some postwar trends in unemployment_____________________
The trend in total unemployment__________________________________
New versus continuing unemployment______________________________
Changes in labor force patterns and the rate of unemployment______
Other industry-occupation changes and the rate of unemployment__
New workers______________________________________________________
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LIST OF CHARTS
Employment status of entrants into the labor force, 1957________________
Industry unemployment rates by seasonal and nonseasonal components,
1957_________________________________________________________________
Job changing and unemployment among persons who worked in 1955____
Seasonal variations in unemployment by age and sex____________________
Summary characteristics of unemployment in a period of high employmentTrends in unemployment rates, 1948 and 1956__________________________
Unemployment totaling 15 weeks or longer for selected groups during
calendar year 1957___________________________________________________
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LIST OF TABLES
Table I—1.— Persons unemployed 4 weeks or less, by industry group:
January 1955-December 1957________________________________________
vn
9
VIII
CONTENTS
Table 1-2.— Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, by industry group:
January 1955-December 1957________________________________________
Table 1-3.— Duration of unemployment, by age and sex: Annual average,
1957_________________________________________________________________
Table 1-4.— Cumulative weeks of unemployment, by age and sex: Calendar
year 1957 (based on survey of annual work experience)________________
Table 1-5.— Duration of unemployment by color and sex: Annual average,
1957_________________________________________________________________
Table 1-6.— Cumulative weeks of unemployment by color and sex: Calen
dar year 1957 (based on survey of annual work experience)____________
Table 1-7.— Average monthly duration of unemployment by industry,
1957_________________________________________________________________
Table 1-8.— Cumulative weeks of unemployment, by industry division of
longest job: 1957 (based on survey of annual work experience)___ „____
Table 1-9.— Persons unemployed a cumulative total of 15 weeks or longer,
by spells of unemployment, by selected characteristics: Calendar year
1957 (based on survey of annual work experience)_____________________
Table 1-10.— Average monthly duration of unemployment, by major
occupation group, 1957_______________________________________________
Table I—11.— Cumulative weeks of unemployment, by occupation of
longest job in 1957 (based on survey of annual work experience)_______
Table 1-12.— Persons unemployed a cumulative total of 15 weeks or longer
as a percent of total with work experience, by selected characteristics:
Calendar year 1957 (based on survey of annual work experience)______
Table II—1.— Gross changes in unemployment, by type of change: Annual
average, 1957________________________________________________________
Table II-2.— Gross changes in the labor force, by type of change: Annual
average, 1957________________________________________________________
Table II-3.— Gross changes in the labor force by age and sex: Annual
average, 1957________________________________________________________
Table II-4.— Gross changes in unemployment, by age and sex: Annual
average, 1957________________________________________________________
Table 11-5.— Gross reductions in unemployment, by type, by duration of
unemployment in previous month: Annual average, 1957______________
Table III—1.— Unemployment levels and rates, by job mobility status:
Calendar year 1955__________________________________________________
Table III-2.— Cumulative weeks of unemployment, by job mobility status:
Calendar year 1955__________________________________________________
Table III-3.— Unemployment associated with voluntary job mobility,
by personal characteristics: Calendar year 1955_______________________
Table III-4.— Unemployment associated with voluntary job mobility,
by occupation and industry of longest job in 1955_____________________
Table III-5.— Unemployment and job mobility status, by age and sex:
Calendar year 1955___________________________________________________
Table III-6.— Unemployment and job mobility status, by major occupa
tion group of longest job in 1955______________________________________
Table III—7.— Unemployment and job mobility status, by major industry
group of longest job in 1955__________________________________________
Table III-8.— Job changers with unemployment during 1955-----------------Table IV-1.— Distribution of seasonal and nonseasonal unemployment by
industry of last full-time job, 1957____________________________________
Table IV-2.— Total and seasonal unemployment in 1957________________
Table IV-3.— Comparative seasonal unemployment by sex and major age
group between months of peak and low point-------------------------------------Table V -l.— New, continuing, and total unemployment, 1948-56________
Table V-2.— Selected measures of the duration of unemployment, 1948,
1952, and 1956_______________________________________________________
Table v-3.— Changes in experienced labor force and unemployed, 1948-56,
by type of activity and class of worker-----------------------------------------------Table V-4.— Changes in civilian labor force and unemployed, 1948-56,
by age and sex_______________________________________________________
Table Y -5.— Changes in unemployment between 1948 and 1956, by major
industry group for wage and salary workers___________________________
Table V-6.— Changes in unemployment between 1948 and 1956, by major
occupation group_____________________________________________________
Table V-7.— Experienced labor force, unemployment, and long-term unem
ployment in goods-produeing and service-rendering industries wage and
salary workers, 1956__________________________________________________
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STUDY PAPER NO. 6
THE EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL
UNEMPLOYMENT
Summary
This report summarizes an attempt to identify and measure some
of the types of frictional unemployment which must be expected even
in periods of prosperity. The focus of this study was the period
1955-57, years of relatively full employment on the whole. Some of
the principal findings are as follows:
1. The continuing entry of new workers into the labor market
(including those who reentered after a period of absence) accounted
for about 20 percent of the unemployed (ch. II). In the 1955-57
period, most new entrants were finding jobs after a relatively brief
search.
2. Voluntary shifting from one job to another (job mobility) ac
counted for roughly 10 percent of the unemployed (ch. III). Persons
changing jobs had a very high rate of unemployment (one in three)
but only a small proportion of the work force (4 percent) was involved
in such shifting at all.
3. Seasonal fluctuations in employment accounted for an estimated
20 percent of the unemployed (ch. IV ). It is likely that the percentage
would have been slightly higher had more detailed data been available
to measure this factor.
4. Changes in the composition of the labor force affected the com
position of the unemployed but were an almost negligible factor in the
slight rise in the overall unemployment rate since the early postwar
period. These changes will play a more prominent role during the
1960,s.
5. A more significant factor was the tendency for the rate of unem
ployment to rise among workers in goods producing industries. These
changes have raised unemployment by about 8-10 percent in the
decade following World War II (ch. V).
There remain, of course, significant components of unemployment
that have not been measured. For example, there is the problem of
geographic pockets of unemployment (distressed areas) which will be
the subject of a future report. There are also numerous short-term
dislocations, e.g., secondary effects of labor disputes, which have not
yet been measured systematically for the labor force as a whole.
There may be a group of relatively unskilled or otherwise less em
ployable persons who, except in periods of acute labor shortages, tend
to become unemployed repeatedly during the course of a year. These
and other aspects of the unemployment problem will have to be ex
plored in future research.
l
47884—59------ 2
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
A more detailed discussion of the focus and results of the present
study is included in the introductory chapter which follows.
I n t r o d u c t io n
It has been generally recognized that some unemployment is un
avoidable in a free market economy where employers and workers
are constantly adjusting to changes in the level and structure of de
mand and to opportunities for employment or increased income.
This so-called frictional unemployment is in contrast with the cyclical
unemployment resulting from periodic generalized dislocations be
tween production and effective demand.
Frictional unemployment may be defined as that level of joblessness
that could not be reduced significantly in the short run by increased
aggregate spending. At this level of employment and unemploy
ment, increased demand would theoretically result in heightened in
flationary pressure rather than increased employment and reduced
unemployment.
The acceptance of the fact of an unavoidable minimum level of un
employment in our economy raises the inevitable question of what that
level ought to be. Federal Government action to minimize unem
ployment without unduly stimulating inflationary pressures demands,
as a prerequisite, as complete an understanding as possible of the
nature of frictional unemployment. This is especially true since
frictional unemployment is not a single form of unemployment, but
rather a comlex of many factors—economic, institutional, and personal.
An extremely important portion of frictional unemployment is a
direct result of seasonal fluctuations in employment, which reflects the
effects upon both production and distribution of weather, crop cycles,
model changeovers in industry, holidays, etc. A second form of
frictional unemployment results from the tremendous movement
into and out of the labor force each month. A third source of fric
tional unemployment is the very high degree of mobility between
jobs in the American labor force.
Frictional unemployment has been popularly identified with short
term unemployment. Also included, however, may be unemployment
of a longer duration associated with long-term declines in occupations,
industries, and areas, reflecting the development of new products,
changing tastes, developing technology, etc.—sometimes called
structural unemployment. This is a form of long-term frictional un
employment. However, to complicate identification and estimation
even further, long-term unemployment is not necessarily a function
exclusively of structural changes in the economy. It may also be
associated with personal characteristics of workers, such as age, color,
sex, education, physical condition, and so forth.
Our present system for collecting employment and unemployment
statistics, although relatively comprehensive and technically refined,
is not currently designed to include inquiries of employees as to the
reason for layoff or unemployment. It is doubtful that respondents
would have the knowledge to provide an answer, even if asked. This
is especially true in the case of continuing unemployment. Whereas
a person might know the specific reason for his having become unem
ployed, it probably would be impossible for him to provide a meaning
ful answer as to why he continued to be unemployed, since this depends
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
3
on various factors: the state of the labor market, the actions of the
individual himself, of employers, etc. In any case, there is no direct
information of this kind on a regular monthly basis. However, this
study does attempt to measure indirectly the extent of unemployment
accounted for by the several major components of frictional unem
ployment : seasonal fluctuations in employment; job mobility; entrance
into the labor market; and structural dislocations in the economy.
It should be pointed out, however, that the tools for measurement
are imprecise in many respects. Furthermore, the categories of
unemployment as they are measured in this report cannot be con
sidered exhaustive or even mutually exclusive; there is some degree
of overlap that cannot be readily estimated.
It is in the measurement of structural unemployment that our pres
ent data are least adequate. However, studies of the characteristics
of the unemployed in relation to the duration of their unemployment
provide much light on this subject, since structural unemployment is
more likely than other types to result in long-term unemployment.
In addition, entirely apart from its value as a measure of the under
lying nature of unemployment in periods of full employment, a study
of duration is important in its own right from the standpoint of per
sonal and social welfare; the duration of unemployment is probably
more significant than the causes, although a knowledge of the latter
is vital for remedial action.
The focus of this study is a detailed description of unemployment
in the period 1955-57, years for the most part of high and rising em
ployment. The unemployment rate averaged 4.3 percent of the labor
force during this period. The availability, for the first time, of some
unique forms of data was also a significant factor in determining the
period for study. See appendix II, chapter I, for additional discus
sion of these matters.
THE E X TE N T OF SH ORT-TERM FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
There are many temporary situations in the working lives of in
dividuals that generate unemployment even in periods of relatively
full employment. The general striving of workers to improve their
economic and social status often involves a job shift and a brief period
of unemployment. The high rate of voluntary mobility in the United
States is frequently cited as an important reason why the level of
frictional unemployment in this country is significantly higher than in
virtually any foreign nation. A special retabulation of information
from the 1956 Census Bureau study relating to job mobility indicates
that groups who left their jobs to improve their status, or because of
dissatisfaction with the kind of work or conditions of employment,
accounted for about 15 percent of unemployed persons, Moreover,
it is estimated that if these persons had been subject only to unem
ployment from causes other than job mobility, total unemployment in
1955 would have been reduced by about 10 percent. (See ch. III.)
A more significant factor in determining the level of frictional un
employment is the effect of entry of new workers into the labor
market (or the reentry of workers—mainly married women—who
have been temporarily out of the labor force). These entries are
estimated to account for roughly one-fifth of the unemployed total
in an average month (ch. II).
4
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
Unemployment resulting from entry into the labor market or from
voluntary job change is likely to be brief in periods of full employ
ment, because a decision to look for another job, or to change jobs, is
often made only if there is some previous knowledge that openings
are readily available. The labor force behavior of teenagers and
married women during the postwar period reflects this tendency, as
indicated by changes in their rates of labor force participation. These
groups are most likely to enter the labor force in good years. Data
on factory quit rates also reflect this general psychology in relation
to job shifts; the quit rate rises in periods of expanding economic ac
tivity, and falls in periods of declining activity.
Still more important than either voluntary job shifting or entrance
into the labor market as a factor in determining the level of frictional
unemployment are the very sharp seasonal variations in the level of
production and employment in many American industries. It is
estimated that variation in the level of employment in industry be-,
cause of seasonal reasons (including the effects of weather, regular
model changeovers, vacation, etc.) is a factor causing at least 20 per
cent of total unemployment in a year of high employment (ch. IV).
It is true that unemployment resulting from each of these kinds of
situations (seasonal reasons, voluntary job shifting or labor force en
trance) is likely to be of relatively short duration, at least for any
given spell. Over the course of the year, however, the cumulative
time lost by workers between seasons or between jobs is substantial.
This point is dramatically made by the data from work experience
studies covering an entire year, which are incorporated in this report.
Moreover, there is evidence that the off season in outdoor work, such
as farming and construction, is long enough so that at least some of
those laid off in the winter turn up as long-term unemployed by March
or April. The post-Christmas lull in trade also adds slightly to the
total of long-term unemployed several months later. However, the
effect of seasonality on long-term unemployment is not great, except
in certain industries, since many of those who are dismissed from
seasonal industries are women and teenagers who withdraw from the
labor force immediately, or after a brief search for other jobs.
LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYMENT
Whereas the terms “ frictional” unemployment and “ short term”
unemployment have sometimes been used interchangeably, not all
frictional unemployment is short term. As already noted, even some
of the seasonally unemployed may become long-term unemployed
before they are recalled. Moreover, some of the persons involved in
frictional unemployment due to entry into the labor market or to
voluntary job shifting may remain jobless for more than 15 weeks,
perhaps because of unrealistic job aspirations or other personal char
acteristics. In addition, as defined in this study, frictional unem
ployment includes layoffs resulting from long run structural changes
in the economy, which by their very nature tend to cause long-term
unemployment.
As we have noted, personal characteristics sometimes obscure this
latter relationship; the reason for unemployment is not the sole
determinant of duration. Individual spells of unemployment of long
duration, however, are more likely to result from basic developments
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
5
in the economy—changes in skill requirements, the movement of an
industry, and the like. Unemployment lasting 15 weeks or over—
long-term unemployment—averaged 560,000 in 1957, or about 20
percent of the unemployed total. Included among these were
240,000, or 8 percent, out of work for more than 6 months in one
continuous spell.
These figures, however, do not reflect the full extent of the long
term unemployment problem. A more meaningful estimate can be
obtained from data relating to cumulative weeks of unemployment
during an entire calendar year. Such data for 1957, based on the
regular Census Bureau survey of the annual work experience of the
population, showed a total of 1}{ million workers with more than 26
weeks of unemployment over the course of the year (cumulating weeks
lost in all spells of unemployment). About 900,000 of the V/2 million
had more than one spell of unemployment, but from a welfare stand
point, it really makes little difference as to whether this much unem
ployment was experienced in a single continuous stretch or in several
different spells. Manufacturing and closely allied industries such as
mining and transportation accounted for 500,000 of the l}i million
very long-term unemployed. Farm and construction workers ac
counted for some 400,000.
Long-term unemployment tends to be a problem of particular
industries and areas. Because of the geographic concentration of
many manufacturing industries, a decline in demand for a particular
product might affect many firms in a labor market area. Workers
laid off by one employer would thus have considerable difficulty in
finding other jobs in that area. Similarly, the movement of an
industry away from one part of the country to another may result in
long-term unemployment because it leaves unemployed workers with
few alternative opportunities in their own communities. Most basic
changes in the economy, such as automation, which lead to the
obsolescence of skills may call for major readjustments on the part
of individual workers, such as transfer to another line of work and
possibly movement to another community. The difficulties involved
in such changes usually require a relatively long period of time to
overcome, except perhaps in the case of young unmarried persons.
Analysis of monthly labor force data has indicated that unemploy
ment spells of long duration are a particular problem of the aged and
of nonwhite groups. The work experience data substantiate these
relationships but bring out some additional facts: Men are more
likely than women to have more than one spell of unemployment in
a year; older workers (especially those 45 and over) are more subject
to repeated layoffs during the year; nonwhites not only have higher
unemployment rates, but are more subject than whites to repeated
spells of unemployment.
Taking the number unemployed 15 weeks or more during a calendar
year as a percentage of all workers in a given age, industry, or occupa
tion group provides an interesting new perspective on the incidence
of unemployment. On this basis, boys 18 to 24 years of age are seen
to have the highest rate of such long-term unemployment—about
8 to 10 percent of their number in the labor force, as compared with
about 5 percent for older workers (45 to 64 years). Similarly the
high rate of unemployment of nonwhites in conjunction with the
6
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
longer average duration of their unemployment results in their having
a rate of long-term unemployment almost three times the rate for
whites (11.3 percent for nonwhite males; 4.3 percent for white males).
It is long-term unemployment that generates most of the concern
on the part of policymakers and other students of the employment
situation. The workers involved in long-term unemployment face
serious problems in terms of wage loss and the possible psychological
effects of prolonged idleness. Many of the long-term unemployed
exhaust their rights to unemployment insurance benefits. In some
cases the existence of long-term unemployment is symptomatic of
underlying maladjustments in the economy. For these reasons, as
well as considerations of individual welfare, the characteristics of both
the short and long-term unemployed are presented in considerable
detail.
STRUCTURAL UNEMPLOYMENT
Chapter V of this report analyzes changes in unemployment during
the postwar period resulting from structural changes in the economy.
Major trends in the composition of the labor force were studied,
together with unemployment trends within specific occupational and
industrial groupings. The major findings were: (1) the absence of any
significant trend in the overall rate of unemployment due to labor
force changes since World War II; (2) a slight rise due to structural
changes.
In 1956, about 8 to 10 percent of the unemployed could be considered
jobless as a result of structural changes over the postwar period.
Probably the most significant development was the continuing shift of
emphasis within the economy from goods-producing to servicerendering activities. The unemployment rate among wage workers
in goods-producing industries (agriculture, mining, construction,
manufacturing) taken as a group rose from 4.1 to 5 percent, with each
industry showing some increase. The unemployment rates in servicetype industries (including transportation, trade, finance, government,
and personal and professional services) either remained the same or
declined somewhat. The rise in unemployment among goods pro
ducers did not reflect an increased number of different persons becom
ing unemployed, but rather, longer duration on the average for those
who did become unemployed.
For the future, it is likely that the rate of unemployment will edge
upward as a result of the increasing numbers and proportions of both
older and younger workers in the labor force. The changed age com
position of the labor force alone could lead to an increase of about 0.5
percent in the rate of unemployment by 1975, assuming that the agespecific unemployment rates remain at about 1955-57 levels.
A forthcoming report will compare unemployment and other labor
force characteristics in depressed areas with those in nondepressed
areas. Special tabulations are being prepared for this study, in order
to provide detailed characteristics for four groupings of labor market
areas, classified according to their history of unemployment levels
over the past 3 years. These data may provide useful new informa
tion on cyclically vulnerable as well as chronically distressed localities
whose extensive and persistent unemployment has caused national
concern.
/Chabt 1
TYPES
MONTHLY TURNOVER
100%
Unemployment Not
Measured
-'15 0 %
Unemployed
Preceding Month
/////////
/////////
/////s///
////////./
^50%K
Less Than 5
Weeks
OF
'/
//
//
/
//
//
//
//
//
//
/////////
100%
'///////
Entered or
Re-entered
Labor Force
5 to 10
Weeks
Seasonal
Unemployment
10 to 15
Weeks
Lost Jobs
I2 % (
15 to 26
Weeks
More Than 26
Weeks
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
•UftCAU Of lAIOt STATISTICS
Includes only limited aspects
measured in this report.
UNEMPLOYMENT
Voluntary
Job Changers
FRICTIONAL
Long-Term Structural
Changes
New Workers or
Re-entrants to
Labor Market
NATURE
>/7T7TTT/ /
TOTAL UNEMPLOYMENT
/////////
AND
TOTAL UNEMPLOYMENT
DURATION
EXTENT
S u m m a r y C h a r a c t e r is t ic s o f u n e m p l o y m e n t
in a P e r io d o f h ig h E m p l o y m e n t
8
E X TE N T AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEM PLOYM ENT
C
hapter
I. Short-
and
L
ong-T erm
U
nem ploym ent
CURRENT MONTHLY SURVEY DATA
In a typical week during 1957, a year of relatively high employment,1
about 1.5 million, or half the 2.9 million unemployed, had been seeking
work or were on layoff for less than 5 weeks. This short-term group
included 150,000 persons on temporary layoff with definite instructions
to return to work within 30 days, and 100,000 persons w^ho were
scheduled to begin new jobs within 30 days. An additional 650,000, or
22 percent of the jobless total, had been unemployed for 5 to 10 weeks
at the time of the survey.
Unemployment lasting 15 weeks or longer—long-term unemploy
ment—averaged 560,000 in 1957 or about 20 percent of the unem
ployed total. Included among these long-term unemployed were
240,000 persons out of work for more than 6 months in one continuous
spell, 8 percent of the jobless total. The total long-term group
represented a little under 1 percent of the total labor force (70%
million).
Short-term unemployment is, to a certain extent, seasonal unem
ployment and the range of seasonal variation in short-term unemploy
ment in recent good years has been from a low of about 1.2 million to
a high of about 2 million. The low point is generally reached in early
spring and early fall, when layoffs in outdoor work and new entries
into the labor market are both at a minimum. The peak is usually
reached in June with the influx of students into the labor force in
search of summer jobs. Other relatively high months are November,
due to holiday season jobseekers, and January, reflecting cutbacks in
trade and outdoor work (table 1-1).
1 See apps. 1 and 2, ch. I, for description of sources of duration data, and reasons for selection of 1957 as the
main focus for this study.
EXTENT
47884— 59-
T a b l e I—1.— Persons unemployed 4 weeks or less, by industry group: January 1 955—December 1 95 7
[In thousands]
1,645
1,612
1,679
1,335
1,352
1,338
1,167
1,391
1,114
1,251
1,254
1,183
1,398
1,469
1,218
2,028
2,152
1,773
Agriculture and construction....................
1957
1956
1955
1957
1956
1955
1957
1956
1955
1957
1956
1955
1957
1956
1955
1957
1956
1955
363
392
340
393
419
497
101
91
116
359
320
317
296
268
271
80
55
57
241
284
249
352
381
375
80
88
95
273
265
301
271
212
213
77
67
48
183
222
235
302
412
294
100
107
86
208
245
193
219
251
212
92
83
48
236
191
213
372
396
387
71
76
106
221
232
164
201
216
221
101
93
45
202
199
185
425
416
369
80
83
64
226
247
162
256
258
283
178
228
103
234
235
216
422
454
358
88
82
100
263
272
315
429
488
408
564
590
326
Manufacturing............................... ..........
Mining and transportation.......................
Wholesale and retail trade........................
Service and public administration............
New workers............................................
April
i Industry relates to last full-time job, for wage and salary workers. Unemployment
based on new definitions.
May
June
July
August
Septem
ber
October
Novem
ber
1,582
1,685
1,470
1,386
1,343
1,433
1,438
1,306
1,340
1,272
1,182
1,265
1,724
1,586
1,477
1,593
1,479
1,351
242
293
226
409
443
371
91
133
75
237
234
237
304
292
293
253
254
230
250
221
280
369
348
356
79
70
77
248
220
151
292
343
383
112
102
126
237
188
192
398
365
366
94
73
70
239
230
247
287
307
302
141
114
129
197
183
213
410
301
317
97
63
97
193
247
242
233
246
249
99
102
114
332
339
290
500
389
393
124
75
68
268
283
247
269
306
291
159
124
98
372
362
322
515
359
351
125
79
72
203
217
210
223
270
237
105
97
84
Decem
ber
2Includes forestry and fisheries and a small number of self-employed and unpaid family
workers not shown separately.
UNEMPLOYMENT
1957
1956
1955
March
FRICTIONAL
Total 2 ..............................................
Febru
ary
OF
January
NATURE
Year
AND
Industry group 1
CD
10
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
Longer term unemployment also shows a pattern of seasonality—
although less pronounced. It is related, of course, to a seasonal rise
in unemployment some months previous. For example, the con
struction layoffs that come in the fall with bad weather are the genesis
of a seasonal increase in the number out of work 15 weeks or longer in
the early spring.
The range of seasonal variation in the number unemployed 15 weeks
or longer was from 450,000 to 700,000 in 1957. The high point is
reached in spring, reflecting the accumulation of winter layoffs in
outdoor work such as agriculture and construction (table 1-2). On
the whole, however, seasonality accounted for only a small proportion
of the annual average level of long-term unemployment in 1957.
EXTENT
T a b l e 1-2.— Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, by industry group: January 1955-D ecem ber 1 957
Industry group»
Year
January
March
April
May
June
July
August
Septem
ber
October
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
617
642
974
663
682
1,062
706
648
1, 111
637
602
879
508
501
648
494
482
586
470
470
460
456
470
458
523
420
451
523
437
423
626
485
498
Agriculture and construction....................
1957
1956
1955
1957
1956
1955
1957
1956
1955
1957
1956
1955
1957
1956
1955
1957
1956
1955
67
58
95
188
161
308
42
43
124
74
82
114
78
107
145
44
62
62
106
88
131
200
176
339
50
59
143
101
110
130
98
103
170
33
58
44
164
147
191
195
201
289
49
66
164
90
106
157
83
104
180
56
39
50
132
104
195
214
241
329
52
51
181
97
84
152
118
123
148
58
36
74
102
101
137
233
225
275
40
50
103
91
91
125
98
85
169
50
38
42
67
69
105
186
198
192
36
27
90
59
91
81
96
69
128
44
32
38
49
54
77
207
234
167
39
25
77
66
78
108
83
61
115
29
23
34
39
54
56
210
187
139
42
49
61
63
81
69
70
64
98
32
34
25
50
52
47
194
187
140
36
33
24
55
81
61
72
81
125
43
30
47
52
37
41
227
141
137
33
39
33
62
67
75
73
76
114
62
48
43
48
42
49
196
158
137
42
33
39
83
58
65
80
71
66
54
54
55
78
48
53
245
161
153
40
35
52
89
84
62
94
87
103
63
55
58
Manufacturing..........................................
Mining and transportation.......................
Wholesale and retail trade............. ........ .
Service and public administration..........
New workers........ .................... ...............
1 Industry relates to last full-time job for wage and salary workers.
based on new definitions.
Unemployment
2Includes forestry and fisheries and a small number of self-employed and unpaid family
workers not shown separately.
UNEMPLOYMENT
500
551
874
FRICTIONAL
1957
1956
1955
OF
Total 2 ..............................................
NATURE
Febru
ary
AND
[In thousands]
12
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
The current monthly survey data, however, do not provide a direct
measure of final duration of unemployment because the figures relate
only to the duration for persons still unemployed at the time of the
survey. The data for any single month do not reveal, for example,
how many of the unemployed will end their spell of unemployment
immediately after the survey week and how many will remain un
employed and move into a longer duration category. Some indica
tion of the relationship between duration of unemployment at the
time of the survey and final duration at the time of reemployment
or labor force withdrawal can be obtained by use of a cohort method,
that is, tracing the experience of the same individuals over a period of
months. This technique is a little more precise when data for single
weeks of unemployment are used. However, estimates for single
weeks were first tabulated in 1959; April-July 1959 data are used here
for illustrative purposes even though the level and rate of unemploy
ment were about 20 percent higher than in 1957.
In April 1959, there were 3.6 million unemployed—about 5 percent
of the civilian labor force. The short-term unemployed (less than
5 weeks) included 1.4 million persons. The experience of these work
ers in the following 3 months was:
(a) 950,000 were no longer unemployed in May; 450,000 con
tinued to be unemployed in May.
(b) 150,000 (of the 450,000) were no longer unemployed in
June; 300,000 continued to be unemployed in June.
(c) 170,000 (of the 300,000) were no longer unemployed in July;
130,000 continued to be unemployed in July.
Thus, of the original group of 1.4 million newly unemployed, 130,000—
less than 10 percent—definitely moved into the long-term group and
another 170,000 ended their unemployment somewhere between 10
and 18 weeks. On the basis of the data for single weeks, it has been
estimated that about 70,000 of the latter group eventually experienced
from 15 to 18 weeks of unemployment.
ANNUAL W ORK EXPERIEN C E SURVEY DATA
Another way of looking at the extent of unemployment is to study
the work history of the population over an entire calendar year.
From this viewpoint, we want to know how many different people
were unemployed at any time during the year, and the total number
of weeks they were unemployed, counting all the spells of unemploy
ment they may have had during the year. This kind of information
is available from the survey of work experience during the entire
year, which is conducted annually.
U n e m p l o y m e n t T o t a l in g 15 W e e k s o r
D u r in g C a l e n d a r
0
3
lo n g er for
y e a r 1957
(As Percent of Experienced Workforce in Group)
6
9
S elected Groups
12
15
EXTENT
ALL WORKERS
AND
Males 18 to 24
years of age
NATURE
Nonwhite
males
OP FRICTIONAL
Construction
workers
*
Farm
workers*
Mine
workers*
UNEMPLOYMENT
Operatives
Nonfarm
laborers
UNITED STATES department
•UtlAU Of IASOR STATISTICS
of
LABOR
* Wage and salary
13
Chabt 2
14
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
The 1957 work experience data showed that there were 10.6 million
different persons who had lost some working time during the year
because of unemployment or layoff. About 3.6 million—or one-third
of the total—lost less than 5 weeks. Another 2.3 million lost from
5 to 10 weeks. More than half (55 percent) of those experiencing
any unemployment lost a total of 10 weeks or less.
There were some 3.4 million—one-third of the total—who expe
rienced 15 weeks or more of unemployment. This group included
1.5 million (14 percent of the total) who had over 26 weeks of unem
ployment during the course of the year.
As compared with the data for a single month (or an average of
monthly data) the work experience data necessarily show a much
smaller proportion with unemplojonent of less than 5 weeks and a
much larger proportion with 15 weeks or more. One reason is that
the work experience data reflect an aggregate of all spells of unem
ployment; about 4.4 million of the annual total of unemployed had
more than one spell. Another reason for the longer duration is that
by and large the data reflect completed spells of unemployment rather
than duration of those still unemployed. Moreover, there are indi
cations that unemployment is underreported when respondents are
asked to recall their experience during a whole year, and a short
period of unemployment is more likely to be overlooked than are
longer spells or a succession of short spells.
CHARACTERISTICS OF THE SHORT- AND LONG-TERM UNEMPLOYED IN 1957
Age and sex
In just about every age group, men are more likely than women to
have a higher proportion of long-term unemployed and a lower pro
portion of short-term unemployed.2 At the same time, for both men
and women, duration of unemployment tends to lengthen with age.
The differences are especially marked at the two extremes of the age
scale. For those under 18, the short-term unemployed outnumber the
long-term by 6 to 1. For those 65 and over, the numbers of shortand long-term unemployed are virtually equal (table 1-3).
2 Rates of long-term unemployment in the sections through p. 27 represent the number unemployed
15 weeks or longer as a percent of all the unemployed in a given group.
1 - 3 . — Duration of unemployment, by age and sex: annual average, 1957
EXTENT
T a b le
[Number in thousands]
Unem
ployment Total
rate
number
15 weeks and over
4 weeks
or less
1,485
307
266
430
1,072
748
187
151
228
541
334
43
Male...
4.1
14 to 17..........
18 and 19.......
20 to 24..........
25 to 44..........
45 to 64..........
65 and over...
10.6
916
222
4.7
1,043
568
11.0
9.4
6.0
115
107
147
419
226
28
77
67
84
215
* Percent not shown where base is less than 50,000.
170
259
112
13
133
15
560
197
196
160
79
321
25
41
115
101
17
~217_
23
23
41
123
144
32
15
16
28
71
73
14
174
~i<)4
27 and
over
239
4 weeks
or less
15 weeks 4 weeks
and over or less
100.0
12.6
10.2
15 weeks
and over
100.0
50.6
19.1
60.9
56.8
53.0
50.5
44.7
38.7
10.4
14.3
13.7
18.4
26.2
48.4
20.4
61.7
57.3
52.8
50.9
49.9
42.5
36.1
12.0
14.5
14.5
18.8
27.6
38.6
7.4
5.7
9.7
22.0
14.9
2.0
22.0
54.5
16.7
38.2
31.1
67.0
62.6
57.1
51.3
49.6
7.8
14.2
5.2
4.5
5.7
14.5
7.5
.9
2.7
3.2
13.2
9.3
0)
12.2
17.7
23.0
0)
15.4
36.4
22.5
2.9
5.7
6.8
10.5
35.2
35.0
4.1
4.1
7.3
25.7
5.7
1.6
1.1
15
30
61
150
99
13
84
144
326
Female,
4.5
3.1
3.4
240
110
192
159
283
653
522
14 to 17..........
18 and 19___
20 to 24..........
25 to 44..........
45 to 64..........
65 and over—.
pr
392
15 to 26
Percent distribu
tion
UNEMPLOYMENT
P*
12.3
7.8
3.1
3.4
3.4
111
1,8
258
Total
As a percent of
total unemployed
FRICTIONAL
2,936
11 to 14
weeks
OF
4.3
10.7
10.9
7.1
3.5
3.3
3.4
7 to 10
weeks
NATURE
Total14 to 17..........
18 and 19___
20 to 24..........
25 to 44..........
45 to 64..........
65 and over...
5 and
6 weeks
AND
Age and sex
16
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
In age groups under 25, duration of unemployment is shorter than
average; in age groups over 45, it is above average. Altogether, per
sons under 25 accounted for 37 percent of the short-term, but only
23 percent of the long-term unemployed. These proportions were just
about reversed for those 45 and over.
These age-sex patterns are the same in both the monthly survey
data and in the work experience data relating to cumulative weeks of
unemployment for the entire calendar year. The monthly data
reflect the fact that each continuous spell of unemployment tends to
be longer for men than for women, and longer for older workers than
for younger workers. The work experience data reflect the additional
fact that men are more likely than women to have more than one spell
of unemployment in a year, and that older workers (especially those
45 and over) are more subject to repeated layoffs (more than one
spell) during the year (table 1-4).
EXTENT
47884-59-
T a b l e 1—4 . — Cumulative weeks of unemployment, by age and sex: Calendar year 1957 (based on survey of annual work experience)
[Numbers in thousands]
4 weeks or
less
5 to 10
weeks
11 to 14
weeks
15 weeks and over
As a percent of total with
unemployment
15 to 26
15 weeks
and over
2 or more
spells
4 weeks or
less
Total
27 and over 4 weeks or
less
Percent distribution
15 weeks
and over
2,443
2,339
1,394
3,352
1,898
1,454
25.7
35.2
45.9
100.0
100.0
392
655
1,455
4,207
2,556
263
194
247
449
1,063
465
25
71
116
363
1,103
615
71
38
84
196
659
384
33
90
210
443
1,383
1,092
134
41
102
246
837
614
58
49
108
197
546
478
76
49.2
37.9
30.9
25.3
18.2
9.9
23.3
31.7
30.5
32.8
42.7
51.4
39.0
41.8
38.5
45.4
52.1
55.5
7.9
10.1
18.4
43.5
19.0
1.0
2.7
6.3
13.2
41.3
32.6
4.0
1,032*
6,576
M 7T
1,643
2,426
1,387
T039"
22.5
36T9~
4&T
6o T
72~4
251
413
1,013
2,919
1,771
209
109
133
278
653
285
19
53
78
261
788
414
49
29
56
152
497
270
28
61
148
320
981
802
114
27
64
189
620
438
49
34
84
131
361
364
65
43.0
32.4
27.5
22.4
16.1
9.1
24.7
35.4
31.7
33.6
45.3
54.5
40.6
46.5
41.5
47.1
54.2
58.9
4.5
5.4
11.4
26.7
11.7
.8
1.8
4.4
9.5
29.3
23.9
3.4
Female........................
2,952
966
696
362
926
511
415
32.8
31.5
40.9
39.5
27.6
14 to 17..................................
18 and 19.............................
20 to 24..................................
25 to 44..................................
45 to 64..................................
65 and over...........................
141
242
442
1,288
785
54
85
114
171
410
180
6
18
38
102
315
201
22
9
28
44
162
114
5
29
62
123
402
290
20
14
38
57
217
176
9
15
24
66
185
114
11
60.3
47.1
38.7
31.8
23.1
11.1
20.6
25.6
28.0
31.3
36.8
37.0
36.2
33.9
31.7
41.8
47.4
42.6
3.5
4.7
7.0
16.8
7.4
.2
.9
1.8
3.7
12.0
8.7
.6
N ote.—Excludes 1,100,000 persons who worked 60 to 51 weeks but had 1 or 2 weeks of
layoff, and 900,000 persons who did not work at all but looked for work at some time
during the year. Characteristics data for these persons are not available,
17
UNEMPLOYMENT
Male...........................
14 to 17.................................
18 and 19...............................
20 to 24..................................
25 to 44.................................
45 to 64.................................
65 and over...........................
FRICTIONAL
9,528
OF
Total..........................
14 to 17..................................
18 and 19...............................
20 to 24..................................
25 to 44.................................
45 to 64..................................
65 and over...........................
NATURE
Total
number
AND
Age and sex
18
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
In general, the groups with the shorter average duration are also
the ones with the higher rates of unemployment. That is, a larger
proportion of their numbers in the labor force is subject to unemploy
ment, but is unemployed a shorter period of time in any given spell.
The unemployment rate for teenage boys is three times that for adult
men 25 years and over. Youngsters are in the process of adjusting
to the labor market and experience a good deal of unemployment in
the course of finding or changing jobs during the year. This kind of
unemployment is apparently shorter, however, than that experienced
by regular workers who lose their jobs.
Marital status
Married men living with their families report a lower rate of unem
ployment over the course of a calendar year than do other men, and
also less long-term unemployment. About a third of the married
men with unemployment or layoff had lost as much as 15 weeks of
working time during 1957 as compared with two-fifths of the single
men 20 years of age and over, and nearly one-half of all other men
(widowed, divorced, separated, etc.). In part, these differences could
be related to the age distributions of the various marital groups.
Those who are widowed, divorced, or married but living apart from
their wives tend to be older and because of age alone would have
greater difficulty in finding another job once unemployed. More
recent data from the 1959 monthly surveys show, however, that
married men have shorter average duration of unemployment age by
age than other men who had been (but are not currently) married.
Apparently, the marital status of men is itself a factor which leads to
less unemployment, in part, because responsibilities exert more pres
sure on such men to find and hold a job, in part, because men who are
married have other personal characteristics which make them more
employable.
Marital status makes little difference in the average duration of
unemployment among women, and none at all in the extent of long
term unemployment. About one-third of both married and single
unemployed women (among single women only those age 20 and over
are included in the comparison) had 15 weeks or more of unemploy
ment in 1957 and one-third of each group also reported short duration
unemployment, i.e., less than 5 weeks of unemployment.
Color
The average monthly rate of unemployment for nonwhite workers
was twice that of white workers in 1957 (8 percent versus 4 percent),
the usual relationship in most postwar years. There was also a
slightly greater tendency for nonwhite workers than white workers to
be among the long-term unemployed (table 1-5). The difference in
duration shows up much more sharply in the work experience data
because the nonwhites not only have higher unemployment rates,
but are more subject than the whites to repeated spells of unemploy
ment. As a result, 44 percent of the nonwhites who experienced any
unemployment were long-term unemployed (on an annual basis) as
compared with 33 percent of the whites (table 1-6).
T a b l e 1 -5 .—Duration of unemployment
by color and sex: Annual average, 1957
[Number in thousands]
5 and
6 weeks
7 to 10
weeks
11 to 14
weeks
Total
15 to 26
4 weeks
or less
27 and
over
15 weeks 4 weeks
and over or less
15 weeks
and over
4.3
2,936
1,485
258
392
240
560
321
239.
50.6
19.1
100.0
3.9
2,350
1,205
206
311
191
436
253
183
51.3
18.6
81.2
77.7
Male________________ ____ _______
Female........... ............................ .......
3.7
4.3
1,519
832
745
460
137
69
208
103
129
62
299
137
169
84
130
53
49.0
55.3
19.7
16.5
50.2
31.0
53.3
24.4
100.0
AND
Total...................... ....................... .
White................................... ....................
EXTENT
4 weeks
or less
Percent distribu
tion
As a percent of
total unemployed
15 weeks and over
Unem
ployment Total
rate
number
Color and sex
Nonwhite_______ ___________________
8.0
585
279
52
81
48*
125
69
56~
47.7
21.4
18.8
22.3
NATURE
Male___ ______ ________ _______
Female____ ____ _________________
8.4
7.4
374
211
171
108
33
19
51
30
31
17
88
37
49
20
39
17
45.7
51.2
23.5
17.5
11.5
7.3
15.7
6.6
OF
Total
number
4 weeks or
less
5 to 10
weeks
11 to 14
weeks
15 to 26
27 and over 4 weeks or
less
15 weeks
and over
2 or more
spells
4 weeks or
less
15 weeks
and over
Total..........................
9,528
2,443
2,339
1,394
3,352
1,898
1,4.54
25.7
35.2
45.9
100.0
White..................................
7,736
2,106
1,957
1,111
2,563
1,497
1,066
27.2
33.1
43.9
86.2
76.5
Male.............. ...............
Female------ ---------------
5,420
2,316
1,287
819
1,403
554
842
269
1,888
677
1,095
404
793
273
23.7
35.4
34.8
29.2
46.5
37.8
52.7
33.5
56.3
20.2
Non white..........-.................
1,792
338
381
283
789
401
388
18.9
44.0
55.4
13.8
23.5
Male--------- --------------Female......... - ......... ......
1,156
636
190
148
240
141
189
94
537
252
292
109
245
143
16.4
23.3
46.5
39.6
56.7
52.8
7.8
6.1
16.0
7.5
19
N o t e —See table 1-4.
100.0
UNEMPLOYMENT
Total
Percent distribution
As a percent of total with
unemployment
15 weeks and over
Color and sex
FRICTIONAL
T a b l e 1 -6 .— Cumulative weeks of unemployment by color and sex: Calendar year, 1957 (based on survey of annual work experience)
[Numbers in thousands]
20
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
One reason for the difference is the concentration of nonwhite
workers in laboring and other relatively unskilled jobs. Among all
laborers, white and nonwhite, the proportion who lose an aggregate
of more than 15 weeks due to unemployment runs as high as 44
percent of those with any unemployment.
Nonwhite workers account for an especially large proportion of
those with unemployment cumulating to more than one-half year.
They represented 27 percent of the very long-term unemployed,
although they constituted only 11 percent of the total number of
workers.
Industry
For any given spell of unemployment, the duration tends to be
longer for factory workers than for those losing nonmanufacturing
jobs. Duration is comparatively short for workers previously em
ployed in agriculture, construction, trade, services, and for those
without previous work experience (table 1-7). Over the course of an
entire year, however, workers from industries which are highly sea
sonal and/or in which job attachments are relatively unstable (agri
culture, construction, domestic service) lose a comparatively large
number of weeks due to unemployment (table 1-8). Over 60 percent
of the workers in these activities who had any unemployment expe
rienced two or more spells of unemployment.
EXTENT
T a b le . 1 -7 .—
Average monthly duration of unemployment by industry, 1957
Unem
ployment Total
rate
number
15 weeks and over
4 weeks
or less
5 and
6 weeks
7 to 10
weeks
11 to 14
weeks
Total
15 to 26
As a percent of
total unemployed
27 and
over
4 weeks
or less
Percent distribu
tion
15 weeks 4 weeks
and over or less
15 weeks
and over
1,485
258
392
240
560
321
239
50.6
19.1
100.0
100.0
2,640
131
2,508
2,438
40
368
904
505
400
148
466
442
61
71
296
1,322
77
1,245
1,206
17
184
406
222
184
78
245
241
32
39
164
231
11
220
216
2
36
81
44
37
11
41
38
6
4
27
356
16
340
332
5
48
128
70
58
20
66
60
6
8
36
220
12
208
204
3
33
82
49
33
12
37
34
2
4
20
512
16
496
479
14
67
208
119
88
27
77
68
16
17
48
295
10
285
275
8
43
118
68
49
17
42
41
5
10
26
217
6
211
204
6
24
90
51
39
10
35
27
11
7
22
50.1
58.8
49.6
49.5
(2)
50.0
44.9
44.0
46.0
52.7
52.6
54.5
52.5
54.9
55.4
19.4
12.2
19.8
19.6
(2)
18.2
23.0
23.6
22.0
18 3
16.5
15.4
26.2
23.9
16.2
89.0
5.2
83.8
81.2
1.1
12.4
27.3
14.9
12.4
5.3
16.5
16.2
22
2.6
11.0
91.4
2.9
88.6
85.5
2.5
12.0
37.1
21.2
15.7
4.8
13.7
12.1
2.9
3.0
8.6
JIncludes forestry and fisheries, not shown separately.
Not applicable.
21
2 Percent not shown where base is less than 50,000;
UNEMPLOYMENT
2,936
3.9
2.1
4.1
4.5
5.7
9.8
5.0
4.9
5.3
3.1
4.5
3.2
2.0
1.0
(3)
FRICTIONAL
4.3
OF
Total................................................
Experienced workers__________________
Agriculture______________________
Nonagricultural industries_________
Wage and salary 1_________________
Mining______________________
Construction__________________
M anufacturing________________
Durables__________________
Nondurables________ ______
Transportation.............................
Trade________________________
Services....... .................................
Public administration__________
Self-employed and unpaid__________
New workers_______ ___________ ______
NATURE
Industry division
AND
[Numbers in thousands]
EXTENT
T a b l e 1 - 8 .— Cumulative weeks of unemployment, by industry division of longest job: 1957 (based on survey of annual work experience)
AND
[Numbers in thousands]
4 weeks or
less
5 to 10
weeks
11 to 14
weeks
15 to 26
Total
27 and over 4 weeks or
less
15 weeks
and over
2 or more
spells
4 weeks or
less
15 weeks
and over
2,339
1,394
3,352
1,898
1,454
25.7
35.2
45.9
100.0
100.0
126
2,317
2,267
36
246
927
575
352
124
443
432
125
2,212
2,133
35
323
892
557
335
142
371
331
71
1,321
1,267
24
229
495
296
199
66
210
220
262
3,091
2,929
57
548
1,046
571
475
180
541
496
115
1,786
1,695
28
312
608
341
267
126
317
269
147
1,305
1,234
29
236
438
230
208
54
224
227
21.6
25.9
26.4
23.7
18.3
27.6
28.6
25.9
24.2
28.3
29.2
44.9
34.6
34.1
37.5
40.7
31.1
28.6
34.9
35.2
34.6
33.5
67.0
44.6
43.8
51.3
60.7
39.0
36.2
43.2
43.6
39.5
44.7
5.2
94.8
92.8
1.5
10.1
37.9
23.5
14.4
5.1
18.1
17.7
7.8
92.2
87.4
1.7
16.3
31.2
17.0
14.2
5.4
16.1
14.8
182
59
39
23
61
35
26
32.4
33.5
29.1
2.4
1.8
14.5
47.0
66.7
2.0
4.8
345
50
i Includes forestry and fisheries, not shown separately.
79
54
162
91
N o te .— See table
71
1-4.
UNEMPLOYMENT
2,443
584
8,942
8,597
152
1,347
3,360
1,999
1,361
512
1,565
1,479
FRICTIONAL
9, 528
OF
Total.......... ...............
Agriculture______________
Nonagricultural industries..
Wage and salary 1_____
M ining__________
Construction_____
Manufacturing____
Durables______
Nondurables---Transportation____
Trade____________
Services__________
Public administra
tion ___________
Self-employed and un
paid _____________
NATURE
Total
number
Percent distribution
As a percent of total with
unemployment
15 weeks and over
Industry divisions
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
23
Tables 1-9 shows the number with 15 weeks or more of cumulative
unemployment during 1957 by number of spells. The unemployed
factory workers in the long-term group (about 1 million) were about
equally divided between those who had one spell of unemployment
and those who had more than one spell during the year. On the other
hand, about three-fourths of the unemployed farm, construction, and
domestic service workers with 15 weeks or more of unemployment had
two or more spells.
One group with comparatively high rates of long-term unemploy
ment in both the monthly and annual surveys are the nonfarm selfemployed. This group probably includes many persons in highly
seasonal or marginal enterprises who are obligated to seek wage work
during the off season.
It is difficult to generalize about the relationship between an in
dustry’s unemployment rate and the duration of individual spells of
unemployment. Construction is one example of a high rate of un
employment associated with relatively short duration for each spell.
In trade and services, on the other hand, the rates of unemployment
are only average or slightly below and the duration is also shorter
than average.
24
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
T a b le 1-9. — Persons unemployed a cumulative total of 15 weeks or longer, by spells
of unemployment, by selected characteristics: Calendar year 1957 (based on survey
of annual work experience)
[Numbers in thousands]
Selected characteristics
Total
2 or more
spells
1 spell
2 or more as
a percent of
total
Age and sex, total..............................................
3,352
1,303
2,049
61.1
Male.................................................. ........
2,426
891
1,535
63.3
14 to 19..................................................
20 to 24.................................... ..............
26 to 44..................................................
45 to 64..................................................
65 and over............................................
209
320
981
802
114
76
146
348
279
42
133
174
633
523
72
63.6
54.4
64.5
65.2
63.2
Female........................................................
926
412
514
55.5
14 to 19..................................................
20 to 24...................... ...........................
25 to 44..................................................
*5 and over............................................
91
123
402
310
30
66
191
125
61
57
211
185
67.0
46.3
52.5
59.7
Color and sex:
White..........................................................
2,563
1,030
1,533
59.8
Male........................................ ............
Female..................................................
1,888
677
707
325
1,181
352
62.6
52.0
Nonwhite--------- ---------------------------------
789
273
516
65.4
Male.....................................................
Female..................................................
537
252
184
89
353
163
65.7
64.7
Industry:
Agriculture....................... -....... ................
Nonagricultural wage and salary:
Mining....... .........................................
Construction.........................................
Manufacturing.............. ......................
262
57
205
78.2
57
548
1,046
17
146
513
40
402
533
70.2
73.4
51.0
Durables.........................................
Nondurables...................................
571
475
290
223
281
252
49.2
53.1
Transportation...... ..............................
Trade....................................................
Services...............................................
Public administration...........................
Nonagricultural self-employed and unpaid. _
Occupation:
White-collar................................................
180
541
496
61
162
72
239
185
38
34
108
302
311
23
128
60.0
55.8
62.7
37.7
79.0
507
230
277
54.6
Professional and managerial..................
Clerical.................................................
Sales.................................... -...............
193
204
110
73
110
47
120
94
63
62.2
46.1
57.3
Blue collar..................................................
2,168
854
1,314
60.6
Craftsmen.............................................
Operatives............................................
Laborers....... ........................................
530
1,060
578
176
475
203
354
585
375
66.8
55.2
64.9
Service........................................................
443
163
280
63.2
Private household.................................
Other....................................................
111
332
25
138
86
194
77.5
58.4
Farm laborers.............................................
224
49
175
78.1
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
25
O c c u p a tio n
White-collar workers—especially those previously employed in
clerical occupations—tend to remain unemployed for shorter periods
of time than do blue-collar workers (table 1-10). The differences are
magnified when a whole year’s experience is considered, as the bluecollar workers are more likely to suffer more than one spell of unem
ployment. The blue-collar group includes a sizable number of con
struction craftsmen and laborers who are particularly subject to
periodic layoffs (table I—11).
As noted in the industry discussion, farm laborers and domestic
service workers have frequent spells of unemployment (60 to 70 per
cent have at least two during the year). Although each stretch may
be relatively brief, the cumulative total of lost time exceeds 15 weeks
for over two-fifths of the workers in these two occupations who had
any unemployment.
47884— 59—..B
26
EXTENT
T a b l e 1 -1 0 . —Average
monthly duration of unemployment, by major occupation group, 1957
[Numbers in thousands]
Unem
ployment Total
number
rate
As a percent of
total unemployed
15 weeks and over
4 weeks
or less
6 and
6 weeks
7 to 10
weeks
11 to 14
weeks
Total
15 to 26
4 weeks
or less
15 weeks 4 weeks
and over or less
15 weeks
and over
2,863
1,438
291
355
223
566
313
243
50.2
19.4
100.0
100.0
1.9
516
280
45
58
34
99
51
48
54.3
19.2
19.5
17.8
Professional and managerial...............
Clerical................................................
Sales....................................................
1.1
2.8
2.6
144
263
109
74
147
59
12
25
8
17
31
10
13
16
5
28
44
27
11
27
13
17
17
14
51.4
55.9
54.1
19.4
16.7
24.8
5.1
10.2
4.1
5.0
7.9
4.9
Blue-collar......... .......................................
6.9
1,573
749
154
207
137
326
187
139
47.6
20.7
52.1
58.6
Craftsmen_______________________
Operatives----------------------------------Laborers.. ----------------- -----------------
3.8
6.3
9.4
345
845
383
167
395
187
32
86
36
44
112
51
28
81
28
74
171
81
36
103
48
38
68
33
48.4
46.7
48.8
21.4
20.2
21.1
11.6
27.5
13.0
13.3
30.8
14.6
Service--------------- ------------------------------
4.7
376
201
36
43
26
70
38
32
53.5
1&6
14.0
12.6
Private household------------ ------------Other service_____________________
3.7
5.1
81
295
46
165
5
31
7
36
7
19
16
64
8
30
8
24
56.8
52.5
19.8
18.3
3.2
10.8
2.9
9.7
Farm..........................................................
1.9
115
66
9
13
9
18
10
8
57.4
15.7
4.6
3.2
(9
58.5
<*)
15.1
.3
4.3
.4
2.9
50.2
15.2
&9~
7.~7
Farmers.._- __ —_. . . . . . . . . . ____ _
Farm laborers............................. .......
New workers________________________
.3
3.7
(*)
i Percent not shown where base is less than 60,000.
* Not applicable.
9
106
4
62
9
2
11
1
8
2
16
1
9
1
7
283~
iiT
iT
34~
1T
43~
2T
16
Note.—Data based on quarterly months only (January, April, July, and October).
The distribution for the total, therefore, differs from that shown on other tables.
UNEMPLOYMENT
4.2
OP FRICTIONAL
Total................................................
White-collar...............................................
NATTTEE
27 and
over
Percent distribu
tion
AND
Major occupation group
EXTENT
T a b l e 1 -1 1 .— Cumulative weeks of unemployment, by occupation of longest job in 1957 (ibased on survey of annual work experience)
[Numbers in thousands]
Total
number
4 weeks or
less
5 to 10
weeks
11 to 14
weeks
As a percent of total with
unemployment
15 to 26
15 weeks
and over
Total
27 and over 4 weeks or
2,443
2,339
1,870
661
447
256
507
557
932
381
130
391
140
146
226
75
112
204
5,944
M54
1,515
907
2,168
1,237
931
1,542
3,069
1,333
348
416
789
310
248
452
207
530
1,060
578
610
334
237
450
244
1,183
307
265
443
304
879
78
229
531
121
8
Blue-collar..
Craftsmen..
Operatives.
Laborers...
ServicePrivate householdOther.....................
Farm.
Farmers...........
Farm laborers..
45
486
113
» Percent not shown where base is less than 50,000.
110
1,454
25.7
35.2
45.9
100.0
100.0
185
35.3
27.1
33.9
27.1
15.1
23.3
42.0
36.7
34.6
21.9
28.9
39.3
30.5
34.1
5.3
16.0
5.7
3.3
2278
!6.5
47.8
~55A
64/7
22.6
34.4
34.5
43.4
51.4
43.5
53.4
14.2
31.4
9.7
15.8
31.6
17.2
131
121
70
25.0
17.9
5.8
6.1
242
201
26.0
37.4
46.7
12.6
13.2
185
35
134
111
332
53
189
58
143
25.7
26.1
36.5
37.8
60.5
41.9
3.2
9.4
3.3
9.9
113
64
233
98
135
22.8
0)
67.0
5.0
7.0
.3
4.6
.3
6.7
9
224
3
132
N ote.—See table 7.
23.3
43.9
(0
46.1
0)
68.3
27
56
322
15 weeks
and over
OF
Professional and man
agerial.............. ..........
Clerical.........................
3,352
4 weeks or
XJNEMPLOTMENT
9,528
2 or more
FRICTIONAL
Total..
White-collar..
Percent distribution
NATURE
15 weeks and over
AND
Major occupation group
28
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
Long-term unemployed as a percent of all workers
It is also meaningful to examine the number of long-term unem
ployed in relation to the entire work force within each group. The
problem of long-term unemployment is placed in a somewhat different
perspective when shown as a percentage of all workers in a given age,
industry, or occupation group. (See table 1-12.) The reason is that
such rates reflect not only the duration of any given spell and the
proportion with more than one spell, but also the overall rate of unem
ployment in the group.
On this basis, for example, boys 18 to 24 years of age are seen to
have the highest rate of long-term unemployment (8 to 10 percent of
their number in the annual labor force, as compared with 5 percent
for men 45 to 64). The much higher incidence of unemployment
among young men on a calendar year basis apparently outweighs
the fact that older men tend to remain unemployed longer once out
of a job and also are more likely to have more than one spell.
EXTENT AND NATURE OP FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
29
T a b l e 1 -1 2 .— Persons unemployed a cumulative total of 15 weeks or longer as a
percent of total with work experience, by selected characteristics, calendar year 1957
based on survey of annual work experience
[Numbers in thousands]
Part-year workers with unemployment or layoffs
Selected characteristics
Total with
work
experience
Number
Percent of
total
15 weeks and over
Number
Percent of
total
Age and sex, total.
77.664
9,528
12.3
3.352
Male________
48,709
6,576
13.5
2,426
5.0
2,730
1,558
3,926
21,474
15.876
3,145
251
413
1,013
2,919
1,771
209
9.2
26.5
25.8
13.6
61
148
320
981
802
114
2.2
9.5
8.2
28,955
2,952
926
3.2
1,987
1,511
3,356
11.974
8,938
1,189
141
242
442
.,288
785
54
7.1
16.0
13.2
10.8
8.8
29
62
123
402
290
20
1.5
4.1
3.7
3.4
3.2
1.7
>9.116
7,736
11.2
2,563
3.7
43.958
25.158
5,420
2,316
12.3
9.2
1,8
677
4.3
2.7
14 to 17........
18 and 19....
20 to 24____
25 to 44........
45 to 64____
65 and over..
Female..
14 to 17....... .
18 and 19....
20 to 24........
25 to 44____
45 to 64....... .
65 and over..
Oolor and sex:
White____
Male__
Female..
11.2
6.6
10.2
4.5
4.3
4.6
5.1
3.6
8,546
1,792
21.0
4,751
3,795
1,156
636
24.3
16.8
537
252
11.3
8,355
2,469
584
506
7.0
20.5
237
3.1
9.6
795
4,022
19,409
152
1,347
19.1
33.5
17.3
57
548
1,046
7.2
13.6
5.4
Durables___
Nondurable.
11,112
8,297
1,999
1,361
18.0
16.4
571
475
5.1
5.7
Transportation. _
Trade_________
Service.......... .
4,887
12,407
16,929
512
1,565
1,479
12.6
10.5
180
541
496
3.7
4.4
2.9
Private household..
Other___________
3,370
13,559
1,097
11.3
8.1
154
342
4.6
2.5
Public administration........ ........ .
Nonagricultural self-employed and
unpaid............................................ .
Occupation:
White-collar______ _______ ________
3,318
182
5.5
61
7,541
345
4.6
30,833
1,870
6.1
507
1.8
2.1
1.6
14,499
11,071
5,263
557
932
381
3.8
8.4
7.2
193
204
110
1.8
2.1
28,589
5,944
20.8
2,168
7.6
9,659
14,384
4,546
1.542
3,069
1,333
16.0
21.3
29.3
530
,060
578
5.5
7.4
12.7
10.169
1,183
11.6
443
4.4
3,068
7,101
304
879
9.9
12.4
111
3.6
4.7
4,741
486
10.3
224
4.7
NonwhiteMale__
Female..
Industry:
Agriculture....................................
Wage and salary...................
Nonagricultural wage and salary:
Mining____ ______________
Construction........................ .
Manufacturing_____________
Professional and managerial.
Clerical.................................
Blue-collar.
Craftsmen..
Operatives.
Laborers__
Service.
Private household..
Other.................... .
Farm laborers..
8.7
9.2
6.6
1.3
30
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
This approach toward measurement of long-term unemployment
does not alter the previously observed comparisons by sex and color.
The rates of unemployment among men are higher than among women
in every age group, as is the proportion of long termers among the
unemployed. Similarly, the proportion of unemployed is higher in
the nonwhite than in the white labor force. This fact, taken together
with the longer duration of those nonwhite workers who become
unemployed, results in a rate of long-term unemployment (as a
percentage of those who worked at any time during the year) three
times that of white workers.
When viewed in this broader context, however, construction workers
fare the worst of any industry group in terms of long-term unem
ployment. Some 14 percent of those whose longest job was in that
industry during 1957 had 15 weeks or more of unemployment as
compared with only 4 percent for all workers. Farm wage workers
had the second highest rate of long-term unemployment (10 percent).
In these two groups, the especially high rates of unemployment (onethird and one-fifth, respectively) combine with a high proportion who
are hit several times during the year to produce an especially high
rate of long-term unemployment, even though each individual spell
may be comparatively brief.
On the other hand, public administration workers and the nonfarm
self-employed have the smallest overall incidence of long-term unem
ployment. This is the case despite the fact that a high proportion of
those who do become unemployed remain out of work for over 15
weeks, and results from the fact that only a small proportion of these
kinds of workers ever become unemployed at all.
In terms of occupation, the fact that unemployment is a much more
serious problem for blue-collar than for white-collar workers again is
brought out more sharply. The unemployment rate for blue-collar
workers is three times that of white-collar workers; the rate for un
skilled laborers is nearly eight times that of professional, technical,
and managerial workers. Blue-collar workers with any unemploy
ment are also more likely to be out of work two or more times. For
the year as a whole, 7){ percent of all blue-collar workers had 15 or
more weeks of unemployment as compared with
percent of all
white-collar workers.
A p p e n d ix I
Source
of
D
to
C hapter I
u r a t io n a n d
T urnover D ata
Monthly estimates of the duration of unemployment have been compiled from
the Census Bureau’s Current Population Survey for nearly two decades. Each
respondent identified as unemployed in the survey is asked the number of con
tinuous weeks he was looking for work (through the survey week). Duration also
reflects the time that respondents would have been looking for work except for
temporary illness, or belief that no work was available in their line or in the com
munity. For persons on layoff, duration of unemployment represents the num
ber of full weeks since the termination of their most recent employment.
The current duration of unemployment, as measured in the monthly surveys,
is not necessarily the final duration for any given spell of unemployment. Cur
rent duration and final duration are the same only for those persons who actually
find a job or leave the labor force immediately after the survey week. Another
limitation is that the data represent only the most recent unbroken spell of un
employment. It is useful, therefore, to supplement the current survey data with
information from surveys of work experience. These work history surveys meas
ure the extent of employment and unemployment over the course of an entire
calendar year. They reflect all spells of unemployment and the aggregate amount
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
31
of time lost because of unemployment during the calendar year. Moreover,
they provide information as to the proportion of unemployed workers who had
more than one spell of unemployment.
The monthly Current Population Survey also provides data on turnover
among the unemployed. These data are based on tabulations for individuals
who are in the sample for 2 consecutive months (each month, 25 percent of the
sample is replaced by new households and 75 percent continue to be in the sample).
By a matching process, it is possible to estimate the changes in status from one
month to the next for identical persons. These data are designated as “ gross”
changes, as contrasted with “ net” changes. An illustration would be a situation
in which unemployment, for example, might be unchanged over the month (net
change) even though 1 million persons found jobs; 1 million other persons lost
jobs (gross changes).
A p p e n d ix II
S e l e c t io n
of
to
C hapter I
P e r io d
fo r
St u d y
For a number of technical reasons, the year 1957 was selected as the primary
focus for this study of unemployment:
1. The survey data on labor force, employment, and unemployment were
based on the current sample design (instituted in May 1956) of 35,000 households
in 330 areas, the largest, most widespread, and most reliable sample ever used
for CPS.
2. The survey data were based on the current definitions of unemployment,
adopted in January 1957. The change in definitions shifted the temporary
layoffs and persons waiting to begin new jobs in 30 days from the employed to
the unemployed.
3. The timing of the survey week (reference week for the activity or status of
respondents) in 1957 was the same as at present. The timing was changed in
July 1955 from the week containing the 8th to the week containing the 12th of
the month, a change which affected seasonal patterns in some months.
4. The year 1957 was also the first in which information was compiled from the
survey on more detailed occupation and industry groupings, including two-digit
detail within manufacturing, although duration of unemployment data for these
more detailed groups are not available prior to 1959.
From an analytical standpoint, the selection of 1957 appears to be satisfactory.
The average level and rate of unemployment in 1957— 2.9 million or 4.3 percent
of the civilian labor force— were not significantly different from 1955 or 1956
levels. Although the recession began in the second half of 1957, unemployment
did not rise more than seasonally until November and the big jump did not occur
until January 1958. For the year as a whole, the basic characteristics of the
unemployed were also largely the same as in the 2 preceding years.
In terms of duration, the year 1957 was fairly representative of good postwar
years. If anything, there appeared to be a slightly lower rate of short-term and
a higher rate of long-term unemployment in 1957 than in earlier postwar years,
so that conclusions about the extent of short-term unemployment can be taken
as conservative, and estimates of long-term unemployment can be regarded as a
little on the high side for a full-employment year.
The selection of the year 1957 does not imply that 1957 levels of unemployment
constitute either normal or minimum levels. Its only significance is that 1957
represented a fairly typical post-World War II good year in terms of high em
ployment levels, even though the signs of recession were unmistakable during
the year. It was also unaffected by any special conditions such as the partial
mobilization during the Korean period, by postwar readjustment or by the rapid
expansion typical of postrecession years. There were no major labor disputes,
nor any major legislation affecting employment, wages and hours, unemployment
insurance, etc., during 1957.
32
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
C h a p ter
II.
T u rn over,
or
how
G ross
much
C h an ges,
in
U n e m p lo y m e n t
turnover
The extent of turnover among the unemployed is indicated by the
fact that in a typical month during 1957, about l){ million of the
unemployed in 1 month had moved out of an unemployed status
the following month and were replaced by an approximately equal
number of newcomers to the unemployed.3 About 900,000 of those
leaving unemployment in any month had first become unemployed
in the preceding month.
Of the l}i million who leave the unemployed each month, about
1 million move into employment while one-half million withdraw from
the labor force. Usually these are replaced by equivalent numbers
who leave jobs or enter the labor market to look for jobs (table II—1).
This extensive turnover in the unemployed explains in part why
there were 10.6 million different persons with unemployment during
1957, even though the average level was only 2.9 million. In fact,
with 1}{ million persons becoming unemployed each month, the total
for the entire year would have been much higher except for the fact
that many of the unemployed are “ repeaters” —that is, they become
unemployed two or more times during the year. About 4.4 million
of the 10.6 million who lost any working time due to layoff or unem
ployment during 1957 had two or more spells of unemployment.
T a b l e I I - l . — Gross changes in unemployment, by type of change: Annual average,
1957
[Numbers in thousands]
Type of change
Total
Male
Female
Percent distribution
Total
Male
Female
Unemployment______________________
Total gross changes___________________
Percent of total______________________
Total gross changes______________
2,9361,515
51.6
1,515
1,893
898
47.4
898
1,043
617
59.2
617
100.0
100.0
100.0
Type (or source) of change:
Employment__ __________________
966
670
296
63.8
74.6
48.0
Agriculture_____________ . _____
Nonagricultural industries______
68
898
57
613
11
285
4.5
59.3
6.3
68.3
1.8
46.2
Full time_________________
Part time_________________
543
355
379
234
164
121
35.8
23.4
42.2
26.1
26.6
19.6
Economic reasons_______
Other reasons.._________
189
166
136
98
53
68
12.5
11.0
15.1
10.9
8.6
11.0
Not in labor force_________________
549
228
321
36.2
25.4
52.0
Housework. ________________
School_______________________
Other_______________ _____ . . .
237
149
163
92
136
237
57
27
15.6
9.8
10.8
10.2
15.1
38.4
9.2
4.4
N ote.—-Gross monthly entries and withdrawals to and from each status have been averaged without
regard to net change.
* The turnover figures cited in this report are averages for 12 monthly observations during 1957. The
actual figures for specific months would vary around the mean because of seasonality, among other
reasons. The additions and reductions have also been averaged, thus disregarding the slight uptrend in
the series during the year.
33
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
PATTERNS
O F ~G R O SS
C H A N G E S IN
LABOR
FORCE A N D
UNEM PLOYM ENT
In 1957 and other recent years, an average of 3^ million persons—
mostly housewives, students, and older semiretired men entered the
labor force each month (on the average) while an almost equal number
withdrew. Of this total of 3% million, an average of about 550,000
persons entered the labor market to seek work and thus became
unemployed, replacing about the same number of unemployed who
left the labor force. Entries into the labor market accounted for close
to an average of 20 percent of all the unemployed.
About half of these withdrawals from the labor force occurred after
a period of unemployment ranging from 1 week up to 2 months. Only
a little over 100,000, on the average, remained unemployed for 15
weeks or longer and then withdrew from the labor force. Many o f
these were housewives and students rather than year-round labor
force members.
Postexhaustion studies of the Bureau of Employment Security show
that, under relatively favorable employment conditions, the great
majority of exhaustees remain in the labor force even after a rather
lengthy spell of unemployment.
One reason why only 550,000 of those entering the labor force
become unemployed is that the largest part of the 3 % million gross
changes involves farm employment and part-time jobs. Most of
these changes are accounted for by women and teenagers who ap
parently begin working on farms or at part-time jobs without passing
through a stage of unemployment. (See tables II-2 and II-3.)
T
able
II-2 . G ro s s ch an ges i n the la b o r force , b y typ e o f ch a n g e : A n n u a l average .
19 5 7
[Numbers in thousands]
Type of change
Total
Male
Female
Percent distribution
Total
45,882
1,148
2.5
1,148
22,064
2,117
9 6
2,117
100.0
2,716
920
1,796
685
2,030
272
648
413
1,382
Full time.....................................
Part time.....................................
690
1,341
214
434
Economic reasons...............
Other....................................
167
1,174
Unemployment........................................
549
Civilian labor force______________________
Total gross changes______________________
Percent of total__________________________
Total gross changes........ - ...................
67,946
3,265
4.8
3,265
Type (or source^ of change:
Employment...........................................
Agriculture.........................................
Nonagricultural industries.............
N o t e .— See table II -l.
Male
Female
100.0
100.0
= == = =
83.2
80.1
84.8
21.0
62.2
23.7
56.4
19.5
65.3
476
907
21.1
41.1
18.6
37.8
22.5
42.8
57
377
110
797
5.1
36.0
5.0
32.8
5.2
37.6
228
321
16.8
19.9
15.2
34
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
T a b le II—3.— G r o s s ch an g es i n the la b o r fo rce b y age a n d sex : A n n u a l average, 1 9 6 7
[Numbers in thousands]
Age and sex
Total________________
14 to 17_____________
18 and 19...............................................................................................
20 to 24..........................................................................................
25 to 44.........................................................................................
45 to 64.......................................................................................
65 and over____________________
Male.______ _
14'to 17_____________
18 and 19..................................................................................................
20 to 24..................................................................................................
25 to 44..................................................................................................
45 to 64..............................................................................................
65 and over_____________________
_
_
Female....___
14’ to 17__
__ __
18 and 19..................................................................................................
20 to 24.....................................................................................................
25 to 44.....................................................................................................
45 to 64.....................................................................................................
65 and over____________________________________________________
Civilian
labor
force
Gross
changes
67,946
3,265
4.8
100.0
2,860
2,433
6,068
30,673
22,622
3.290
773
239
301
903
730
320
27.0
9.8
5.0
2.9
3.2
9.7
23.7
7.3
9.2
27.7
22.4
9.8
45,882
1,148
2.5
35.2
1,812
1,290
3,626
21,302
15,375
2,478
429
112
107
125
173
202
23.7
8.7
3.0
.6
1.1
8.2
13.1
3.4
3.3
3.8
5.3
6.2
22,064
2,117
9.6
64.8
1,048
1,144
2,442
9,371
7,246
813
344
127
194
778
557
118
32.8
11.1
7.9
8.3
7.7
14.5
10.5
3.9
5.9
23.8
17.1
3.6
Percent
of labor
force
Percent
distribu
tion
N o t e .— See table I I - l .
Marginal workers do not add significantly to the unemployed since
they fill jobs as seasonal demands increase or as they become aware of
available job openings, to a large extent without any active search.
Special studies have shown that only about 10 to 15 percent of the
unemployed are actively seeking part-time jobs. Only about 5 per
cent of the unemployed were previously engaged in agriculture. Most
of the seasonal expansion and contraction in the farm work force is
accounted for by housewives, students, and older men who remain
outside the labor force when their services are not required on the
farm.
PATTERNS
OF
G R O SS
AND
CHANGES
BETW EEN
EM PLOYM ENT
UNEM PLOYM ENT
With unemployment at about 3 million, and with no significant
trend during the year, about 1 million persons can be expected to
leave their jobs (due to seasonal and nonseasonal causes) each month
and become unemployed. An approximately equal number will be
come reemployed, although not necessarily in the same job they held
before. Stated another way, about 1 million previously employed
persons leave jobs for a variety of voluntary and involuntary reasons
and become unemployed, while another 1 million previously unem
ployed persons find jobs. About 600,000 of the 1 million who find
jobs were in the short-term duration group in the preceding months.
Their total completed spell of unemployment ranged from a minimum
of 1 week to 8 or 9 weeks’ duration.
Most of the shifts between employment and unemployment involve
full-time, nonfarm employment. Moreover, half the gross changes
that do take place between unemployment and part-time employment
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
35
involve persons working part time involuntarily due to economic
reasons. In terms of age and sex, the major part of the gross changes
between employment and unemployment occur among adult men
rather than women or teenagers, since a relatively large proportion
of the women and youngsters leave the labor force on losing their
jobs, rather than enter unemployment (table II-4 ).
T a b l e I I - 4 . — G ro ss ch an g es i n u n e m p lo y m e n t , b y age a n d sex: A n n u a l average , 1 9 5 7
[Numbers in thousands]
Age and sex
Unem
ployed
Gross
changes
Percent
of unem
ployed
Percent
distribu
tion of
gross
changes
Gross changes between unem
ployment and not in labor
force
Number
Percent
of unem
ployed
Percent
distribu
tion
2,936
1,515
51.6
100.0
549
18.7
100.0
14 to 17...........................................
18 and 1 9 .......................................
20 to 24...........................................
25 to 44...........................................
45 to 64 ........................................
65 and over______________ ____
308
266
429
1,072
749
112
203
140
198
545
367
63
65.9
52.6
46.2
50 8
49.0
56.3
13.4
9.2
13.1
35.9
24.2
4.2
131
59
70
154
104
31
42.5
22.2
16.3
14.4
13.9
27.7
23.9
10.7
12.8
28.1
18.9
5.6
Total___________________
Male____________________
1,893
898
47.4
59.3
228
12.0
41.5
14 to 1 7 ..........................................
18 and 19______________________
20 to 24...........................................
25 to 44...........................................
45 to 64
.....................................
65 and over____________________
192
159
283
653
522
83
120
77
118
308
230
47
62.5
48.4
41.7
47.2
44.1
56.6
7.9
5.1
7.8
20.3
15.2
3.1
75
25
27
38
41
23
39.1
15.7
9.5
5.8
7.9
27.7
13.7
4.6
4.9
6.9
7.5
4.2
Female_________________
1,043
617
59.2
40.7
321
30.8
58.5
14 to 17...........................................
18 and 19........................................
20 to 24...........................................
25 to 44...........................................
45 to 6 4 ..........................................
65 and over___________________
115
107
147
419
226
28
83
63
80
237
137
16
72.2
58.9
54.4
56.6
60.6
0)
5.5
4.2
5.3
15.6
9.0
1.1
56
34
43
116
63
8
48.7
31.8
29.3
27.7
27.9
0)
10.2
6.2
7.8
21.1
11.5
1.5
» Percent not shown where base is less than 50,000.
N o t e .— See table I I -l.
On the average, the probability of reemployment is related to the
prior duration of unemployment. The shorter the period of time a
person has been out of a job, the greater the likelihood he will be re
employed quickly. In 1957, for example, some 41 percent of the
persons who in one month had been jobless for only 4 weeks or less
had found a job by the following month. The comparable proportion
for those out of work 5 to 14 weeks was 28 percent; for those out 15
weeks or longer, 21 percent. Conversely, the proportions remaining
unemployed were 40 percent for the short-termers, 55 percent for the
middle termers, and 61 percent for the long-termers (table II-5 ).
The reason for these patterns is not so much that duration of unem
ployment itself renders the worker less employable, although that
may become a factor in cases of very long-term unemployment.
Kather, the point seems to be that duration of unemployment itself is
related to the personal and economic characteristics of workers dis
cussed above, and that whatever characteristics or situations caused
them to be unemployed for varying periods of time in the first place,
also determine their chances for reemployment in any given month.
36
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
An employer will hold onto his most highly skilled and productive
workers the longest, and will try to hire them back first, within the
limitations imposed by seniority and other contractual arrangements
covering layoffs and hiring.
T
able
II -5 .— G ro s s re d u ctio n s i n u n e m p lo y m e n t , b y typ e , b y d u ra tio n o f u n e m p lo y
m ent i n p re v io u s m o n th : A n n u a l average , 1 9 5 7
[Numbers in thousands]
Age and sex
Total
4 weeks or
less
5 to 14 weeks 15 weeks and
over
Unemployment_______________________________
Total reductions_______________________
2,936
1,515
1,485
893
890
401
560
220
Status after change:
Employment_____________________________
966
601
249
115
Agriculture___________________________
Nonagricultural industries____________
68
898
39
562
19
230
10
105
Full time________________________
Part time_________________________
543
355
351
211
134
96
57
48
Economic reasons_____________
Other reasons_________________
189
166
106
105
55
41
28
20
Not in labor force_________________________
549
292
152
105
School________________________________
Other_________________________________
149
400
88
204
47
105
14
91
Percent of unemployed who—
Became reemployed_______________________
Dropped out of labor force________________
Remained unemployed___________________
32.9
18. 7
48.4
40.5
19.7
39.8
28 0
17.1
54.9
20.5
18.8
60.7
It is important to note that turnover among the unemployed occurs
each month at a fairly high rate. This is true even in years when
employment conditions are less favorable, although the extent of
turnover may fall as low as 40 to 45 percent as compared with 55
percent in 1957. At the same time, however, observations regarding
turnover should be qualified by at least two pieces of related data.
(1) Although the overall turnover rate is 55 percent between one
month and the following month, not all of those moving out of unem
ployment had been looking for work for only 1 month. That is, of
the 1.5 million leaving the unemployed between March and April of
1957, for example, about 600,000 had already been unemployed 5
weeks or longer at the time of the April survey. In fact, about 200,000
had already been out of work 15 weeks or longer.
(2) Not all of those leaving the unemployed enter full-time employ
ment. About 550,000 persons withdrew from the labor force in an
average month in 1957. There is little direct information about the
reasons for those withdrawals, although it has been presumed that
most of them were voluntary. Another 350,000 are persons who enter
part-time employment, with at least half reporting that their employ
ment at part-time jobs is involuntary, due to economic reasons.
Thus, only about 600,000 of the gross reductions in unemployment
represent entries into full-time jobs and of this group, only 400,000
could be classified with some assurance as short-term unemployed—
that is, they were only classified as unemployed in one previous survey
before becoming reemployed.
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
37
Chabt 3
E m p l o y m e n t S t a t u s o f E n t r a n t s in t o t h e L a b o r Fo r c e , 1957
(Average Gross Monthly Additions from Outside of Lobor Force, by Employment Status After Entry)
UNITED STATES DEPARTMENT OF LABOR
(UKEAUOFIASOKSTATISTICS
C
hapter
III. U
nem ploym ent
A
s s o c ia t e d
w it h
J o b S h if t s
The relationship between job mobility and unemployment has been
a subject of great interest among labor force analysts for many years.
There has been some statistical evidence, along with the experience of
everyday life, to show that job changing is a significant factor in gen
erating unemployment and that layoffs frequently lead to a job
change. Illustrative of these tendencies are the relatively high rates
of unemployment among young workers and among construction
workers, a high proportion of whom are involved in job shifts during
the course of a calendar year. Moreover, survey data on the work
experience of the population have shown that workers with only one
job are far more likely to be year-round workers than are persons
who change jobs. By and large, however, quantitative estimates of
the relationship between job mobility and unemployment have been
based on untested assumptions rather than on empirical studies.
Now for the first time, a body of data has become available which,
although imperfect in many respects, sheds some statistical light on
this relationship. These data are based on a re tabulation of informa
tion collected in 1956 by the Bureau of the Census relating to job
mobility, weeks worked, and weeks of unemployment during the cal
endar year 1955. Two reports were previously issued by the Census
Bureau presenting in detail the results of the work experience survey
38
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
and, separately, the study of job mobility (Current Population Re
ports, Series P-50, 68, and 70). The present report differs from those
earlier ones in that it specifically relates the information on job shifts
to that on the incidence and duration of unemployment during 1955.
Some limitations of the present study should be made clear at the
outset. Although it provides statistics on how much unemployment
occurred among different kinds of job changers in the aggregate, it
cannot provide information as to how many cases of unemployment
occurred as a direct result of a job change, or how many cases of job
changing were the ultimate result of a layoff. Future surveys might
be oriented more specifically toward the answering of such questions.
Future research should also refine thp information on reasons for job
leaving. It would be important to know, for example, whether an
instance of job leaving was voluntary or involuntary. In the present
study it was impossible to determine whether the termination of a
temporary job involved a quit or a separation.
Another major problem with the present data is the absence of any
information about the reasons for unemployment among persons who
did not change jobs. It would be desirable to know, for example,
how many cases were new entrants or reentrants to the labor market,
how many were seasonal workers on layoff, how many were laid off for
economic reasons, etc. It might then be possible to develop some
indexes of proclivity to change jobs as a result of unemployment of
different types, among various groups in the labor force.
SUM M ARY
OF RESULTS
Despite their obvious limitations, a number of significant findings
have emerged from these data. In the calendar year 1955, of the
10 million different persons who had any unemployment or layoff, some
3.7 million were persons who changed jobs at least once. Persons who
had a job change4 (for any reason) accounted for 11 percent of the
entire work force of 75 million, but they represented 37 percent of
those with unemployment (table I I I - l ) . The rate of unemployment
on a calendar year basis (percent of those with work experience who
had any unemployment) for job changers of all kinds was five times as
large as that for workers who did not change jobs during the year
(45 percent versus 9 percent). This rate was even higher for those
workers involved in more than one shift during the year (about 60 per
cent, as compared with 40 percent for those who had only one change).
* Each change in employer, or a change from wage and salary work to self-employment, or vice versa,
was classified as a job shift. Persons with more than one job, all held concurrently, were defined as
nonchangers.
EXTENT AND NATURE OP FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
T
able
39
I I I - l .— U n e m p lo y m e n t levels a n d rate s , b y jo b m o b ility s ta tu s : C a le n
dar year 19 5 5
[Numbers in thousands]
Total with unemployment
Mobility status
Total who worked during 1955__________________________
Did not change jobs__________ ________________________________
Did change jobs1___________________________________________ _
Changed jobs only once:
Economic reasons____________ ________________________
Termination of temporary job_____ !_______ - __________
Improvement in status____ ________ __________ ____ __
All other reasons2_____________________________________
Changed jobs 2 or more times, same category of reason for
each job leaving:
Economic reasons_____ - _________ __________ __ ______
Termination of temporary job_________________ - ______
Improvement in status________________________________
All other reasons2 ___ ___ __ _______________________ _
Changed jobs 2 or more times, combination of reasons for
job leaving:
Some economic reasons________________________________
No economic reasons..______ ________________ ________
Total
Number
Percent
of total
Percent
distribu
tion
75,353
9,814
13.0
100.0
67,113
8,240
6,149
3,665
9.2
44.5
62.7
37.3
1,116
545
2,665
1,182
719
214
767
341
64.4
39.3
28.8
28.8
7.3
2.2
7.8
3.5
187
209
397
83
165
132
156
45
88.2
63.2
39.3
54.2
1.7
1.3
1.6
.5
792
1,064
564
562
71.2
52.8
5.7
5.7
i The total number of job changers shown here is slightly less than that shown in the original P-50 report
because of minor differences in estimating methods.
•Includes illness or disability, family and school responsibilities, and all other reasons.
FR ICTIO NAL U N EM PLO YM E N T DU E TO M O B IL IT Y
The classification of job changers by reasons for change, while by
no means without problems, does add to our insight into the relation
ship between unemployment and mobility and permits us to identify
one important group of the frictionally unemployed. In a very
rough way, it has been possible to distinguish between persons who
left their jobs more or less voluntarily and those who were separated
from their jobs. The former group would include: (1) those who left
because of a desire to improve their status, and (2) those who became
temporarily unavailable for a particular job because of illness or
disability, household or school responsibilities, and the like. The
group who left to improve their status— to get a better job, make
more money, or because of dissatisfaction with the kind of work,
conditions of employment, or other aspects of the job— comes closest
to our usual concept of frictional unemployment due to job shifting.
This group accounted for about 10 percent of all persons with unem
ployment (on a calendar year basis).
It is possible from these data to develop a crude estimate of how
much of the annual average level of unemployment in 1955 (2.9
million), could be ascribed to voluntary job changers, that is, persons
who made job shifts due to a desire for improvement in status. Tak
ing into account the available information on their annual duration
of unemployment, around 15 percent of annual average unemploy
ment could be ascribed to job shifters. At least a third of these
voluntary shifters undoubtedly had unemployment due to other
causes. Therefore, only about 10 percent of unemployment can be
ascribed to voluntary job mobility itself.
40
EXTENT
AND
NATURE
UNEM PLOYM ENT
OF
RELATED
F R I C T IO N A L
TO
UNEM PLOYM ENT
IN V O L U N T A R Y
JO B
C H A N G IN G
Persons who changed their jobs involuntarily include: (1) Most of
those who reported termination of a temporary, usually seasonal, job
(although some of these may have quit voluntarily, their character
istics indicate that a majority lost their jobs), and (2) those laid off
because of economic reasons—lack of sufficient work, business failure,
business movement, and the like.
The highest rate of unemployment (for those who changed jobs
only once) was among those whose job change was dictated by
economic factors. About two-thirds of these job changers experi
enced at least one spell of unemployment.
A somewhat lower rate (4 out of every 10) was reported by workers
who had one job change but whose job leaving was due to the termina
tion of a temporary job. This group largely includes persons who
were separated from, or who left, seasonal jobs or other jobs which
were taken with the knowledge that they were temporary. This
group is difficult to evaluate because the original reports were ap
parently not specific enough to distinguish voluntary from involuntary
job leaving.
As might be expected, the lowest rates of unemployment among
job changers were registered by those who had only one change
during the year and who quit their jobs more or less voluntarily.
About 3 out of 10 such workers had unemployment, fewer than other
job changers but still three times as many as workers who had only
one job during the year. There was no difference in the rate of unem
ployment between the group that quit to take another job in order to
improve their status and the group that quit because of such personal
considerations as illness, or family and school responsibilities.
Indidentally, the latter group which comprised about 5 to 10 percent
of the unemployed, might also be regarded as largely frictional in
the sense that much of their unemployment was probably due to
reentry into the labor market after a period of absence.
Whatever the reason for job change, persons who changed jobs
more than once had considerably higher rates of unemployment than
did those with only one change. For those with two or more shifts,
the rate of unemployment ranged from 40 percent of those whose
reason in each case was to improve their status, to 90 percent of those
whose reasons in each case were economic.
D U R A T IO N
OF
UNEM PLOYM ENT
About 41 percent of the single-job workers and 36 percent of the
changers who had any unemployment experienced less than 5 jobless
weeks (table III-2 ). Among both groups, about one-fourth of those
with any unemployment lost 15 weeks or more of working time.
EXTENT AND NATURE OP FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
T
able
41
I II-2 .— C u m u la t iv e w eeks o f u n e m p lo y m e n t, b y jo b m o b ility sta tu s: C a le n d a r
year 19 5 5
[Numbers in thousands]
Duration of unemployment
Mobility status
Total
Less
than 5
weeks
27
5 to 10 11 to 14 15 to 26 weeks
weeks weeks weeks
or
longer
Percent of total
Less
than 5
15 or
longer
Total with unemployment___
9,814
3,827
2,112
1,196
1,614
1,065
39.0
27.3
Did not change jobs_________ ____
Did change jobs 1___________________
6,149
3,665
2,507
1,320
1,184
928
747
449
988
626
723
342
40.8
36.0
27.8
26.4
719
256
160
98
126
79
35.6
28.5
214
767
341
45
351
175
48
185
77
32
87
25
45
92
47
44
52
17
21.0
45.8
51.3
41.6
18.8
18.8
165
27
42
33
47
16
16.4
38.2
132
156
45
10
73
30
36
40
4
22
19
2
44
19
3
20
5
6
7.6
46.8
66.7
48.5
15.4
20.0
564
562
185
168
178
158
59
72
100
103
42
61
32.8
29.9
25.2
29.2
Changed jobs only once:
Economic reasons. .................
Termination of temporary
job__________________ ;____
Improvement in status_____
All other reasons3__________
Changed jobs 2 or more times,
same category of reason for
each job leaving:
Economic reasons__________
Termination of temporary
job........................................
Improvement in status_____
All other reasons2__________
Changed jobs 2 or more times,
combination of reasons:
Some economic reasons_____
No economic reasons_______
1 The total number of job changes shown here is slightly less than that shown in the original P-50 report
because of minor differences in estimating methods.
2 Includes illness or disability, family and school responsibilities, and all other reasons.
Within the job-changing group there were sizable differences in
duration, depending on the reason for change. Voluntary job leavers
who went through a period of unemployment were most likely to be
among the short-term and least likely to be among the long-term
unemployed. About 5 out of 10 were unemployed less than 5 weeks,
while only 2 out of 10 were unemployed 15 weeks or longer. The
proportions for those who lost their jobs for economic reasons were
36 percent among the short-term, and 29 percent in the long-term
group. The highest proportion of long-term unemployed (42 percent)
was recorded by persons whose job leaving was due to the termination
of temporary jobs.
For voluntary job leavers, duration of unemployment was about the
same for those who had only one job change as for those who had more
than one. Among the other groups, however, those who had two or
more changes had a much smaller proportion of short-term unem
ployed, and a substantially larger proportion of long-term unemployed.
EFFECT
OF
D IF F E R E N C E S
IN
M O B IL IT Y
ON
UNEM PLOYM ENT
RATES
There is a good deal of variation in the extent of voluntary job
leaving among different groups in the labor force. However, this
variation has very little effect in causing differential rates of unem
ployment because the numbers of workers involved are relatively few.
Whereas job changing is much more common among young men 18
to 24 years of age than among men over 45, for example, and manual
workers are more likely to leave their jobs than are professional,
technical, or managerial workers, the occurrence of voluntary job
changing is infrequent among all age and occupation groups. The
42
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
very highest rate, recorded by young men in their early twenties, was
only 10 percent.
Because of the low level of mobility rates, intergroup differences
have only a minor effect in creating differences in unemployment rates.
In order to quantify this effect, a procedure of standardization was
adopted whereby all groups of workers were assumed to have an
identical proportion of voluntary job changers (i.e., 4 percent, which
was the overall rate for the entire work force). For all groups, the
rate of unemployment among job changers is much higher than among
nonchangers (roughly 1 out of 4 as compared with 1 out of 10 for the
work force as a whole). Therefore, the result of standardization was
to raise the unemployment rates for groups with below-average
mobility rates and to lower the unemployment rates for groups with
above-average mobility rates. (See tables III-3 and III-4.) In
nearly all cases, however, the difference between the actual and the
standardized rate was less than 1 percentage point. The largest effect
was on young men 18 to 24 years of age, where the assumption of a
4-percent mobility rate instead of the actual rate of 10 percent reduced
their overall unemployment rates (calendar year basis) from 25 to 23
percent. Even after standardization, their rates remained more than
twice as high as those for adult men.
T
able
III-3 . U n e m p lo y m e n t a sso ciated w ith v o lu n ta ry jo b m o b ility , b y p e rs o n a l
c h a ra c te ristics: C a le n d a r y e a r 1 9 5 5
INumbers in thousands]
Voluntary job changers 1
Personal characteristics
With any unem
ployment
All
workers
Number
Percent
of all
workers
Number
Percent
of all
job
changers
Percent with any
unemployment
during the year
Actual
Stand
ardized 2
Male____________________
47,624
2,220
4.7
551
24.8
12.6
12.5
14 to 17 years__________________
18 and 19........................................
20 to 24...........................................
25 to 44......... ..................................
45 to 64...........................................
65 and over____________________
2,541
1,618
3,509
21,516
15,331
3,109
65
146
359
1,216
420
14
2.6
9.0
10.2
5.7
2.7
.5
16
35
113
254
129
4
24.6
24.0
31.5
20.9
30.7
28.6
10.9
23.9
24.7
12.0
11.0
7.4
11.3
22.7
22.8
11.6
11.4
8.4
White.............................................
Nonwhite_____________________
Single—______ _____ __________
Married, wife present_________
Other marital status___________
42,935
4,689
9,480
35,361
2,783
2,051
177
448
1,670
106
4.8
3.8
4.7
4.7
3.8
477
83
137
377
44
23.3
46.9
30.6
22.6
41.5
11.6
22.3
18.1
10.8
17.9
11.4
22.4
17.9
10.6
18.0
27,729
842
3.0
249
29.6
9.8
10.1
14 to 17 years......... .......................
18 to 19...........................................
20 to 24.................. ........................
24 to 44...........................................
45 to 64...........................................
65 and over____________________
Female_________________
1,663
1,508
3,367
11,800
8,199
1,192
47
119
200
345
124
7
2.8
7.9
5.9
2.8
1.5
.6
17
31
70
93
38
36.2
26.1
35.0
27.0
30.6
12.7
17.4
11.6
9.8
7.8
4.0
13.2
16.4
11.0
10.2
8.6
4.0
White.............................................
Nonwhite......................................
Single________ ________ _______
Married, husband present_____
Other marital status__________
24,035
3,694
6,821
15,778
5,130
756
83
279
412
146
3.1
2.2
4.1
2.6
2.8
210
36
95
110
41
27.8
43.4
34.1
26.7
28.1
9.0
14.9
11.0
8.5
12.2
9.3
15.8
11.0
8.9
12.5
JIncludes persons who made 1 or more job shift during the year in order to improve status only.
2 Assumes a 4.1-percent rate of voluntary job changing for all groups of workers.
N o t e .—Details will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Unlike tables 1 and 2, excludes
year-round workers with 1 or 2 weeks of layoff because not available by characteristics.
43
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
T
able
III-4 . — U n e m p lo y m e n t asso ciated w ith v o lu n ta ry jo b m o b ility , b y o ccu p a tio n
a n d in d u s t r y o f longest jo b i n 1 9 5 5
[Numbers in thousands]
Voluntary job changers 1
Occupation and Industry of
longest job
With any unem
ployment
All
workers
Number
Percent
of all
workers
Number
Total____________ ______
Professional, technical.............. .
Farmers and farm managers___
Managers, officials, proprietors.
Clerical workers...........................
Sales workers................................
Craftsmen, foremen............. .......
Operatives_________ ____ _____
Private household workers____
Service workers excluding pri
vate household—......................
Farm laborers_________________
Laborers excluding farm and
mine____ ____________ ______
Agriculture___________________
Nonagricultural wage and sal
ary workers...............................
Forestry, fisheries, and
mining__________________
Construction.........................
M anufacturing........... ..........
Durable goods------------Nondurable goods.........
Transportation......................
Trade......................................
Service....................................
Public administration_____
Nonagricultural self-employed
and unpaid_________________
Percent
of all
job
changers
Percent with any
unemployment
during the year
Actual
Stand
ardized 2
75,353
3,062
4.1
800
26.1
11.6
11.6
6,765
3,959
6,696
10,074
5,284
9,131
14,666
2,887
183
63
202
417
311
424
758
54
2.7
1.6
3.0
4.1
5.9
4.6
5.2
1.9
22
2
35
106
60
109
257
16
12.0
3.2
17.3
25.4
19.3
25.7
33.9
29.6
3.3
1.8
3.6
7.8
7.7
15.6
19.2
9.6
3.5
1.8
3.8
7.8
7.4
15.5
18.8
10.3
6,600
5,109
260
102
3.9
2.0
102
27
39.2
26.5
12.9
8.9
12.9
9.4
4,182
9,261
289
210
6.9
2.3
71
61
24.6
29.0
28.1
6.2
27.4
6.7
58,839
2,752
4.7
745
27.1
13.4
13.2
868
3,779
18,503
10,495
8,008
4,896
12,351
15,387
3,055
48
218
812
580
232
183
804
594
93
5.5
5.8
4.4
5.5
2.9
3.7
6.5
3.9
3.0
15
64
201
131
70
53
208
180
24
31.3
29.4
24.8
22.6
30.2
29.0
25.9
30.3
25.8
23.5
32.9
14.6
14.0
15.4
10.3
13.1
9.3
5.0
23.0
32.4
14.5
13.7
15.8
10.4
12.5
9.4
5.3
7,253
137
1.9
32
23.4
4.1
4.6
1 Includes persons who made 1 or more job shift during the year in order to improve status only.
2 Assumes a 4.1-percent rate of voluntary job changing for all groups of workers.
N
.
ote —Details will not necessarily add to totals because of rounding. Unlike tables 1 and 2, excludes
year-round workers with 1 or 2 weeks of layoff because not available by characteristics.
Among those who did change jobs voluntarily, there was consider
able variation in the extent to which different groups of workers
experienced any unemployment, although these differences should
be interpreted with caution because the base figures are relatively small.
In general, workers with the highest rate of unemployment or longest
duration overall are also the ones most subject to unemployment in
the course of changing jobs. Some illustrations are as follows:
(a) Workers in the central age groups (25 to 44) were less sub
ject to unemployment as a result of a job change than were
younger or older workers, especially among men.
(ib) White job changers were only half as likely to experience
unemployment as were nonwhite changers.
(c) Married men and women were more successful in changing
jobs without unemployment than were other workers.
(d) White-collar workers— especially the professional and tech
nical groups—were less likely to be jobless during their transition
than were blue-collar or service workers.
44
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
AGE
AND
SEX
The labor market difficulties of young people in their late teens
and early twenties— especially the young men— are brought somewhat
more sharply into focus by the data presented in table I I I -5 . More
of these young workers are involved in job shifts (about one-fourth)
for one reason or another during the course of a calendar year than
any other age-sex group in the force labor. At the same time, the
rate of unemployment among those involved in job shifts is compara
tively high. Perhaps even more significant, however, is the fact
that the unemployment rates even for those who had no job change
of any kind were still twice as high as the rate for adult men. To a
large extent, this difference reflects the fact that initial entry into the
labor force on a permanent basis probably occurs most often in the
18 to 24 age group, and the first search for employment is so often
preceded by a period of unemployment. To some extent, however,
these high rates may also reflect a high layoff rate due to low seniority,
inexperience, and lack of training.
I I I -5 .— Unemployment and job mobility status, by age and sex: Calendar year 1955
EXTENT
T a b le
[Numbers in thousands]
Workers with no job change during
the year
Workers with 1 job change or more during the year
With unemployment1
Percent distribution by type of change
Total
Number
Percent
of all
workers
Percent
distribu
tion
Total
Number
Percent
of all
workers
Termi
nation
of tem
porary
job
Improve
Other
ment in voluntary
status
reasons2
8.0
100.0
8,240
3,369
40.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
iTT
64.2
5,855
2,574
44.0
76.4
81.4
78.7
68.9
65.9
14 to 17 years................................................................
18 and 19.......................................................................
20 to 24................................................................ .........
25 to 44........................................................... ...............
45 years and over.........................................................
2,220
1,178
2,556
18,721
17,094
170
193
430
1,437
1,211
7.7
16.4
16.8
7.7
7.1
3.2
3.6
8.0
26.8
22.6
321
440
953
2,795
1,346
106
193
438
1,135
702
33.0
43.9
46.0
40.6
52.2
3.1
5.7
13.0
33.7
20.9
1.6
5.6
14.2
38.8
21.2
6.5
6.8
9.5
27.5
28.4
20
4.4
14.1
31.8
16.6
6.8
9.0
16.7
19.7
13.7
Female..................... - ....................- ....................................
25,344
1,917
7.6
35.8
2,385
795
33.3
23.7
18.3
21.3
31.2
33.9
14 to 17 years................................................................
18 and 19....................................... ...............................
20 to 24...........................................................................
25 to 44...........................................................................
45 years and over.........................................................
1,487
1,209
2,867
10,806
8,975
158
170
212
852
525
10.6
14.1
7.4
7.9
5.9
2.9
3.2
4.0
15.9
9.8
176
299
500
994
416
53
93
180
309
160
30.1
31.1
36.0
31.1
38.5
1.6
2.8
5.3
9.2
4.8
.5
1.6
2.9
7.8
5.5
1.2
3.0
6.2
5.9
5.0
2.1
3.9
8.8
11.6
4.8
1.4
4.9
9.3
15.3
3.0
i Excludes year-round workers with 1 or 2 weeks of layoff (included on tables II I-l and
III-2) because data are not available by characteristics.
*
N ote .—D etails do not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
45
2 Includes illness or disability, family and school responsibilities.
UNEMPLOYMENT
5,358
3,441
FRICTIONAL
67,113
41,769
OP
Percent
distribu
tion
Economic
reasons
NATURE
Age and sex
Total..........................................................................
AND
With unemployment1
46
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
Some of the problems of older workers are also indicated by these
data. The worker over 45 is less likely to be a job changer— either
of the voluntary or involuntary type— than is the younger worker
among both men and women. Those that do become engaged in a
job change, however, are more likely to have some unemployment
associated with that change than are workers under 45.
Table I I I -5 also shows the age-sex distribution of workers with
unemployment who had a job change, by reason for change. There
is some tendency for women to be relatively more numerous among
voluntary job changers than among involuntary^ job changers (about
a third versus a fifth). This reflects their concentration in whitecollar jobs and in trade and service activities rather than in heavy
industry or in outdoor work subject to wide seasonal fluctuations.
Men 20 and over, on the other hand, were most prominent in the
group which reported job changes due to economic factors (75 percent)
and least likely to appear in the group whose job leaving was related
to family and school responsibilities, illness or disability (50 percent).
O C C U P A T IO N
AND
IN D U S T R Y
As in the case of age, the mobility data also sharpen our previous
knowledge about unemployment by occupation and industry. For
example, nonfarm laborers— the group historically subject to the
highest unemployment rates under any economic conditions— are far
more likely to have a job change at some time during the year and are
also more likely to have some unemployment associated with that
change (table I I I -6 ). At the same time, they are more subject to
unemployment even if all their work experience was with one em
ployer during the year. At the other extreme, professional, technical,
and managerial workers and proprietors are least likely among the
nonfarm groups to be involved in a job shift. Those who do so are
less frequently subject to unemployment than are other groups of
workers. For those who remain at a single job, the rate of unemploy
ment is only one-tenth that of nonfarm laborers and lower than that
of any other group. Among the remaining nonfarm occupations,
other white-collar workers tend to fare better than service workers
among both changers and nonchangers, while service workers make a
better showing than the skilled or semiskilled blue-collar workers.
T a b le
I I I -6 .— Unemployment and job mobility status, by major occupation group of longest job in 1955
EXTENT
[Numbers in thousands]
Workers with no job change during
the year
Workers with 1 job change or more during the year
With unemployment1
Percent distribution by type of change
Total
Number
Blue collar.
Service...
Farm___
Farmers............
Farm laborers..
Percent
distribu
tion
Economic
reasons
Termi
nation
of tem
porary
job
Improve
Other
ment in voluntary
status
reasons2
8.0
100.0
8,240
40.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
26,359~
97iT
zT
18.1
2,460
691~
28.1
20.4
19 T
11.1
27.T
29.2
12,573
13,786
266
709
2.1
5.1
4.9
13.2
888
1,572
204
487
23.0
31.0
6.0
14.4
6.7
12.4
.6
10.5
7.0
20.5
8.0
21.2
23,979
3,387
14.1
63.3
4,000
2,025
50.6
60.0
68.9
57.6
54.1
49.8
8,005
12,750
3,224
891
1,843
653
11.1
14.5
20.3
16.7
34.4
12.2
1,126
1,916
958
533
968
524
—
47.3
50.5
54.7
15.8
28.7
15.5
14.5
34.0
20.4
22.5
17.4
17.7
13.5
31.8
8.8
9.6
29.5
10.7
38.9
34.8
11.2
8.4
4.2
11.4
19.8
ir < r
3.5
1473
5.6
43.0
.3
.2
1.5
18.3
.2
_____
8,516
8,258
748~
241
suT
2.9
4.5
3,782
4,476
60
181
1 .6
1 .1
4.0
* Excludes year-round workers with 1 or 2 weeks of layoff (included on tables III-l and
III-2) because data are not available by characteristics.
2 Includes illness or disability, family and school responsibilities.
3.4
971~
810
177
633
3,369
282
10
272
8 .1
__
4.0
Note.-—Details do not necessarily add to totals because ox rounding.
100.0
3.3
100.0
6 .6
6 .6
47
Number
Percent
of all
workers
UNEMPLOYMENT
Craftsmen..
Operatives..
Laborers___
5,358
Total
FRICTIONAL
Professional and managerial..
Clerical and sales.................... .
67,113
Percent
distribu
tion
OF
T o ta l..
Percent
of all
workers
NATURE
Major occupation group of longest job
White collar.
AND
With unemployment1
48
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
Blue-collar workers account for 50 to 70 percent of all the unem
ployed groups distributed by occupation in table I I I -6 . They are
more prominent, however, among those who changed jobs after an
economic-type layoff, except for the craftsmen who are more subject
to seasonal layoffs. White-collar workers, on the other hand, are
relatively more evident in the group of voluntary job shifters.
The patterns shown for the unskilled laborer and the young worker
also emerge for the construction workers in general (of course, there is
some degree of overlap among these groups). He is also a frequent
job shifter— 1 of 4 as compared with 1 out of 10 for the work force
as a whole. If involved in a job shift, the chances are 6 out of 10
that he will also have had some unemployment. This ratio compares
with 4 out of 10 for all workers. But again, one of the most significant
results is the unemployment rate for those who do not report any
job change— 25 percent as compared with 8 percent for all industries
(table I I I -7 ).
EXTENT
T a b le
III-7 . — Unemployment and job mobility status, by major industry group of longest job in 1955
[Numbers in thousands]
Workers with 1 job change or more during the year
With unemployment1
Major industry group of longest job
Percent distribution by type of change
Total
Number
Percent
distribu
tion
Total
Number
Percent
ofaU
workers
Percent
distribu
tion
Economic
reasons
67,113
5,358
8.0
100.0
8,240
3,369
40.9
100.0
100.0
100.0
1,876
768
2,864
16,616
4,460
10,460
13,856
2,862
150
136
701
1,802
320
923
922
87
8.0
17.9
24.5
10.9
7.2
8.8
6.7
3.0
2.8
2.6
13.2
33.9
6.0
17.4
17.3
1.6
600
110
915
1,986
446
1,891
1,531
193
293
68
541
903
182
694
516
66
48.8
61.8
59.1
45.5
40.8
36.7
33.7
34.2
8.6
2.0
15.9
26.5
5.3
20.4
15.1
1.9
3.8
3.2
15.5
34.1
6.0
19.9
12.4
1.1
19.0
.6
33.5
10.6
3.6
13.6
12.2
3.3
* Excludes year-round workers with 1 or 2 weeks of layoff (included in tables II I-l and
III-2) because data are not available by characteristics.
2 Includes illness or disability, family and school responsibilities.
100.0
100.0
7.0
4.2
1.8
7.6 ............6.4
24.0
35.6
5.9
6.3
23.0
24.8
21.5
16.2
2.5
2.9
N o t e .— Details do not necessarily add to totals because of rounding.
UNEMPLOYMENT
Wage and salary workers, total_______________
Agriculture_________________________________________
Mining_____________________________________________
Construction______________________________________
Manufacturing_____________________________________
Transportation_____________________________________
T rade_____________________________________________
Service ___________________________________________
Public administration__________________ ____ ______
Other
Improve
ment in voluntary
reasons2
status
FRICTIONAL
Termi
nation
of tem
porary
job
OF
Percent
of all
workers
NATURE
With unemployment1
49
AND
Workers with no job change during
the year
50
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
Construction and farmworkers predominate in the group whose
job leaving was caused by the termination of seasonal or other tem
porary jobs. Factory workers, on the other hand, are more likely to
appear in the economic-layoff group and among those who had unem
ployment but no job change. Trade and service workers are dispro
portionately represented in the group whose unemployment was re
lated to voluntary job mobility.
C O N C L U S IO N
These findings confirm that a high rate of job mobility is associated
with a high rate of unemployment. Both are symptomatic of some
other more basic problem within the groups subject to them. Unfor
tunately, there are still many unanswered questions about the specific
circumstances connected with the unemployment experience of job
changers. Moreover, no information was collected in this study as
to the specific reasons for unemployment among those workers not
involved in job changes. Nevertheless, enough data have been as
sembled to show that job changing is largely a secondary aspect of
the problem for groups in the labor force subject to high unemploy
ment. High rates of job changing are correlated with, but do not
explain high rates of unemployment, since the very same groups
(e.g., young persons, unskilled laborers, construction workers) have
high unemployment among nonchangers. Except for mobility due
to a desire to improve one’s status, which has been shown to be a
relatively minor factor in unemployment, job changing is more likely
to be an effect of unemployment rather than a cause. The largest
single group of job changers who had unemployment are the 1.3
million who lost their former jobs because of economic reasons (40
percent of all changers with unemployment). The table below shows
the reasons for change among job changers with an unemployment
rate of 20 percent or more on a calendar year basis:
T
able
II I -8 .— J o b ch an g ers w ith u n e m p lo ym e n t d u r in g 1 9 5 5
Total
Selected labor force groups
Males, 18 to 24........ ................... .
Married men, wife absent_____
Nonwhite men_________ ____
Operatives____________________
Nonfarm laborers................. .......
Mineworkers__________________
Construction workers_________
Number
(thou
sands)
63i
105
393
968
524
68
541
Pcrcent distribution by reason for change
Percent Economic
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
42.0
46.7
45.3
47.0
52.1
63.2
38.4
Termina Improve
tion of
ment in
status
tempojob
8.7
7.6
12.0
6.0
11.3
2.9
20.9
23.5
28.6
21.1
26.5
13.5
22.1
11.8
Other
volun
tary
reasons
Combintions of
noneco
nomic
reasons
14.9
8.6
3.3
11.1
7.4
10.9
8.6
18.3
9.4
15.6
11.8
24.6
....... 4.1’
A m o n g all these groups, over h alf reported th a t their jo b leaving
w as due to in v o lu n tary factors. F o r the m a jo r ity , therefore, u n em
p lo y m en t m o st lik ely preceded their decision to take anoth er jo b .
Chart 4
Jo b
C
h a n g in g
and
Un em
ploym ent
W
ho
W
orked
in
1955
WORKED AND
W ERE UNEMPLOYED
9.8 MILLION »100%
AND
65.5 MILLION* 100%
s
EXTENT
WORKED AND WERE
NEVER UNEMPLOYED
Among Pe r so n
NATURE
OF
1955
1955
51
UNITEDSTATESDEPARTM
ENTOFLABOR
lUtlAUOfIAIORSTAIISTICS
UNEMPLOYMENT
Changed Jobs
(For either economic
or noneconomic
reasons)
FRICTIONAL
P E R S O N S WHO:
Did Not Change Jobs
52
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
C
hapter
IV.
S easonal U
nem ploym ent
Seasonal unemployment results both from the periodic entry of job
seekers into the labor force as well as from the periodic layoff of em
ployed workers. It is estimated that a minimum of one-fourth of the
total unemployment in 1957 could be termed “ seasonal.” 5 If the
regularly recurrent unemployment of new entrants into the labor
force is excluded, the proportion is closer to one-fifth (table IV -l).
T
able
I V - l — D is t r ib u t io n o f se a s o n a l a n d n o n se a s o n a l u n e m p lo y m e n t b y in d u s t r y
o f la st f u ll-t im e jo b , 1 9 5 7
[Numbers in thousands]
Industry division
Total
Seasonal
Non
seasonal
Seasonal as
a percent
of total
Total...............................................................................
2,936
776
2,160
26
With work experience...........................................................
Wage and salary workers:
Agriculture.................................................................
Construction..............................................................
2,640
674
1,966
26
104
341
43
146
61
195
41
43
Manufacturing..........................................................
793
236
557
30
Durable goods...................................................
Nondurable goods.............................................
449
344
142
94
307
250
32
27
Trade..........................................................................
Transportation.................... .....................................
Service.........................................................................
Other i.........................................................................
Temporary layoffs and persons waiting to begin new
jobs in 30 days.. ..........................................................
No previous work experience...............................................
428
133
403
178
60
36
32
51
368
97
371
127
14
27
8
29
260
296
71
102
189
194
27
34
i Includes self-employed and unpaid family workers in all industries as well as wage and salary workers
in other industries.
N o t e .— M ay not add to totals because of rounding.
« Estimated from the range of periodic (seasonal) fluctuations in net unemployment from major industry
divisions.
Chart 5
Percent of Labor Force
Percent of Labor Force
10
10
1
9
9
8
AND
1 NONSEASONAL
SEASONAL
8
EXTENT
In d u s t r y Un e m p l o y m e n t R a t e s b y S e a s o n a l
AND NONSEASONAL COMPONENTS, 1957
7
7
6
6
NATURE
5
- 5
OF
4
- 4
3
3
FRICTIONAL
2
/
/
/
/
IV
1W
AGEANDSALARYW
ORKERSINOTHERINDUSTRIES.ANDSELFEM
PLOYED,ANDUNPAIDFAM
ILYW
ORKERSINALLINDUSTRIES.
NOTE:RATESARE0ASEOONOLODEFINITIONOFUNEM
PLOYM
ENT. ONLYW
AOEANDSALARYW
ORKERSAREINOLUOEOEXCEPTFOR
"TOTAL’ANO"OTHER"
53
fNITEOSTATESDEPARTM
ENTOF LABOR
•UKAUOf lAtOCSTATISTICS
/
\
.S
UNEMPLOTMENT
I
54
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
In a “ normal” year unemployment is almost 50 percent higher at
its peak in June than at its low point in October.6 This variation in
the number of unemployed is tied to the annual cycle of weather and
crop developments and to our social customs and traditional industrial
patterns.
Part of the frictional unemployment associated with entry into the
labor force is seasonal. The largest regularly recurrent rise in unem
ployment, which occurs in June, is directly connected with the summer
recess in the school year. About 40 percent of the unemployed in June
1957 could be described as seasonally enemployed; they represented
mainly the inevitable proportion of students wrho experience an interval
of joblessness when they enter the labor force at the end of the school
term. This is one facet of seasonal unemployment— the unemployment
of entrants into the labor force who generally have not held full-time
jobs before. This group is discussed in some detail in the section on
gross changes in the labor force.
There is another facet which results from the layoff of workers
in industries bound to the weather or to the agricultural cycle— in
farming, canning and food processing, construction, lumbering, rail
road transportation— or from layoff connected with social and com
mercial customs such as the post-Christmas lull in retail trade or the
regular introduction of new automobile or television models at various
times in the year.
A declining seasonal demand for workers does not always lead to a
proportionate rise in unemployment. M ost of the peak needs in
agriculture are met by unpaid family workers or by young summer
workers who leave the labor force during the slack periods. Some of
the employees at Christmastime already hold other jobs; when their
seasonal jobs are finished they continue with their regular employment.
SEASONAL UN EM PLO YM ENT IN 1957
The seasonal unemployment contributed by individual industry
divisions is of particular interest because it relates mainly to the
unemployment of regular wage earners and because it indicates the
source for the periodic increases in total unemployment. In 1957
workers in the construction industry had the highest rates of both
seasonal and nonseasonal unemployment.7 On the average, 10K
percent of the construction industry workforce was unemployed in
any month in 1957; about two-fifths of this unemployment could be
termed “ seasonal.” 8
The next largest group, both in seasonal and nonseasonal unemploy
ment, were hired workers in agriculture. Of their total unemploy
ment rate of 5.8 percent, 2.4 percent was seasonal— also about 40
percent (table IV -2 ).
* This represents the spread in the seasonal adjustment factors. In 1957, June unemployment was actually
33 percent above the October level.
7 See the appended technical note for an outline of the procedure used in estimating the proportion of
seasonal unemployment.
8 The statistical procedure for measuring average seasonal unemployment is not sufficiently flexible to
include all of the seasonal unemployment in a specific period. The effects of unseasonable variations in
weather, for example, cannot be taken into full account.
EXTENT
T a b le I V -2 .—
Total and seasonal unemployment in 1957
[In thousands]
3,244
1,194
36.8
3,121
1,160
37.2
2,882
968
33.6
April
M ay
2,690
784
29.1
June
2,715
793
29.2
July
3,337
1,306
39.1
3,007
978
32.6
August
Septem
ber
October
Novem
ber
Decem
ber
2,609
480
18.4
2,552
267
10.5
2,508
3.5
88
3,188
615
19.3
3,374
683
2,936
776
26.4
100
100
100
12
13
13
34
28
100
5
2 0 .2
Annual
average
OF
Distribution of seasonal unemployment by industry (percent)
NATURE
Total unemployment.................... ...............
Estimated seasonal............................ ............
Percent seasonal to total...................... .........
March
AND
January February
INDUSTRY DIVISION
100
100
100
100
100
100
100
10
6
13
43
2
6
3
27
33
4
25
42
1
28
25
7
27
30
6
24
29
7
7
33
Durable goods...........................................
Nondurable goods...................................
12
11
19
20
25
17
26
17
15
9
10
14
5
3
9
15
13
7
3
9
5
4
3
4
4
3
7
6
2
8
7
3
1
2
2
5
11
Trade.................................................................
Service...... ......................... ........................ .....
Other1............................................................ .
Temporary layoffs and persons waiting
to begin new jobs in 30 days.....................
No previous work experience.......................
1 See table I V -l.
6
1
13
6
15
2
7
2
17
37
19
28
5
= ====
5
41
25
16
20
26
11
=====
15
3
8
T
Transportation.................................................
4
7
4
7
4
4
11
10
6
4
7
23
13
33
20
20
29
18
N ote .—Percents may not add to totals because of rounding.
26
23
9
14
14
4
3
19
30
18
12
-
4
5
4
7
4
9
13
4
55
13
100
UNEMPLOYMENT
100
FRICTIONAL
Total............... ................. .....................
Agriculture.....................................................
Construction_____________________________
Manufacturing............................. ............. .
56
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
As has been noted, not all of the seasonal variations in employment
are reflected in unemployment, mainly because the labor force ex
pands and contracts to meet seasonal needs for workers. Another
factor tending to offset seasonal unemployment, which is particularly
applicable to construction and agriculture, is the job mobility of
workers.
High worker mobility, as we have noted elsewhere in this report,
is usually associated with a high rate of unemployment. However,
where mobility lies in the work rather than the worker, i.e., where the
locus of the worker’s employment shifts, as in crop harvesting, food
canning and construction, unemployment tends to be reduced to the
extent that the worker can dovetail his employment from an activity
of seasonally declining demand into an activity of seasonally rising
demand.
In a survey of job mobility for the year 1955, approximately 24
percent of the wage and salary workers in both construction and agri
culture held more than one job during the year. By comparison, only
11 percent of workers in all industries held more than one job.9 Job
mobility in these two industries is a natural consequence of the
periodicity of the work and the multiplicity of employer units; separate
projects at different locations under different employers result, of
necessity, in a lack of job continuity.
Workers in manufacturing had substantially lower rates of seasonal
unemployment (1.3 percent seasonal out of 4.5 percent total) than in
construction and agriculture but, because of its large employment,
manufacturing accounted for the largest proportion of total seasonal
unemployment (30 percent).
Workers in durable and nondurable goods were on the average
about equally affected by seasonal unemployment. An analysis of
employment data indicates that the manufacturing industries with the
widest seasonal fluctuations included canning and several other food
processing industries, tobacco, automobiles, lumber and the apparel
industries.
Relatively low seasonal unemployment was characteristic of the
service and trade industries; this could probably be attributed as much
to flexibility in the work force in these industires as to steadiness in
employment. Total unemployment rates in these industries were
about as high as in manufacturing.
Next to manufacturing, the largest numbers of seasonally unem
ployed workers came from the construction industry (19 percent of the
total). Other industries contributed substantially less to the total
number of seasonally unemployed workers. However, a large propor
tion of seasonal unemployment (13 percent) was among new workers—
without previous work experience. The seasonal unemployment of
new workers is concentrated in the late spring, summer and early fall,
with the peak months in June and July. (See table IV -2.) In the
spring months and in September, manufacturing accounts for the
largest part of seasonal unemployment; in the winter months, con
struction is the source of the largest seasonal unemployment.
The month with the least seasonal unemployment is October. The
unemployment of workers from manufacturing, construction, trade,
• Percentages refer to consecutive jobholding, not concurrent.
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
57
and transportation is then normally at a minimum. Unemployment
from all other industries is only fractionally higher in October than in
some other month (M ay is the low point in agriculture, August in
services); the seasonal unemployment contributed by these industries
amounts to about 5 percent of total unemployment in October.
June is, as has been previously noted, the month of highest seasonal
unemployment, but there are also large numbers of workers seasonally
unemployed in January, February, and March. (See table IV -3 .)
Seasonal unemployment in these winter months generally reflects
slack-season layoffs of workers who previously held full-time jobs.
On the other hand, the heavy seasonal unemployment in June and July
is accounted for by new workers.
T
able
IV -3. — C o m p a ra tiv e s e a s o n a l u n e m p lo y m e n t b y sex a n d m a jo r age g ro u p
between m onths o f p e a k a n d low p o in t 1
Lowest unemployment
Highest unemployment
Age and sex
Month
Under 25:
Male_______________________ October____
Female_____________________ ____ do...........
25 and over:
Male_______________________ ____ do______
Female_____________________ ____ do....... .
Percent of
annual
average
Month
Percent of
annual
average
68.9 June.............
79.2 ____ do...........
159.6
166.3
75.9
90.1
131.0
February. __
January.......
1 1 0 .1
Percent
change
132
110
73
22
i Based on seasonal adjustment factors derived from recent years’ experience.
October is the month of least seasonal unemployment for both men
and women, as well as for young persons (under 25) and adults (over
25). The peak periods differ. June is the peak for youngsters of both
sexes, with their seasonal unemployment in this month more than
double the October level. February, the peak month of seasonal
unemployment for men 25 and over, is higher by two-thirds than
October. January is the peak for women over 25, but the range
between peak and low point is relatively narrow— one-fifth higher in
January than in October.
Although seasonal unemployment can usually (by definition) be
anticipated, and although it is usually (but not invariably) of short
duration, it may nevertheless work hardship on individuals. Also, to
the extent that seasonal unemployment results from industry prac
tices which may be changed rather than from unavoidable variations
in weather, it may represent one of the most promising areas for
reduction of frictional unemployment.
58
EXTENT AND NATURE OP FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
Ch a r t 6
S e a s o n a l V a r i a t i o n s in u n e m p l o y m e n t
by A g e And S e x
Index
Annuol average=IOO
In d e x
Based on se a s o n a l a d ju s tm e n t
fa c to r s O ppllC O ble to 1957.
__
Chart 6 .
UNITEO STATES DEPARTMENT Of IA80R
BUttAUOf IA80« STATISTICS
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
A
T
e c h n ic a l
p p e n d ix
N
ote
on
to
C hapter
Se aso n a l U
59
IV
nem ploym ent
The measurement of seasonal unemployment in 1957 was made primarily from
the individual seasonally adjusted series on unemployment by industry source,
related to the month of minimum seasonal unemployment indicated by the
seasonal adjustment factors.
The following procedure was used:
1. Differences between the original and seasonally adjusted series were com
puted for each month. This gave a measure of seasonal unemployment for
each month in relation to the annual average.
2. The month of minimum seasonal unemployment for each industry divi
sion was identified from the seasonal adjustment factors. For this month
the amount of seasonal unemployment was considered as zero.
3. The amount of seasonal unemployment for each of the other months
was the sum, without regard to sign, of the differences between adjusted and
original figures for the minimum month and each of the other months. This
is illustrated in the following example for total unemployment.
Minimum
month
(October 1957)
Unemployment:
Original____________________________________________________________
Seasonally adjusted________________________________________________
Other than
minimum
month
(March 1957)
2.508.000
3.195.000
—687,000
Seasonal unemployment related to annual average________________
Seasonal unemployment
___________ _______
related to minimum month
0
2,882,000
2,661,000
2 2 1 ,0 0 0
908,000
When calculated for aggregate unemployment, the average proportion attribut
able to seasonality amounted to 24 percent; when the calculation was applied to
major industry divisions (and included new entrants to the labor force) the esti
mate was increased to 26.5 percent. Had it been possible to do the computa
tions for more detailed groups, the estimates would undoubtedly have been some
what higher.
This last point illustrates one difficulty in attaining a precise measure of sea
sonal unemployment. Any of the aggregate groups represents a balance of off
setting movements. Even at levels considered minimum for any group some
individuals would be unemployed for seasonal reasons. However, it was not
practical to measure seasonal unemployment in groupings more detailed than the
major industry division because the small size of the more detailed unemployment
roups would not have permitted statistically adequate seasonal adjustment.
Iven though the amount of revealed seasonality would have been greater, it is
questionable whether further quantification of seasonal unemployment at mini
mal levels for smaller groupings would have materially altered the patterns de
scribed in this report.
There are other limitations which must be recognized in using the information on
seasonal unemployment. Just as the original data on unemployment are subject
to sampling variability and response errors and biases, so are the seasonal adjust
ments merely approximations of an average pattern which has been discerned
within an historical mass of other regular and irregular movements, without cer
tainty that the pattern is precisely applicable to the current period of study.
The seasonal adjustment factors express the characteristic recurrent pattern of
monthly change isolated through a highly detailed technical examination of unem
ployment over a period of years, with due weight being given to changes in the
pattern indicated in more recent years. These factors were developed in the
Census Bureau by the application of a ratio-to-moving-average procedure to the
oringinal data, with the computations carried out on high-speed electronic com
puting equipment.
For a description of the basic ratio-to-moving-average procedure, see “ Adjust
ment for Seasonal Variation,” by H. C. Barton, Jr. in the Federal Reserve Bul
letin, June 1941. For its utilization in electronic computers, see “ Seasonal Com
putations on UNI VAC,” by Julius Shiskin, in the American Statistician, Febru
ary 1955.
f
60
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
C hapter V . S om e P ostw ar T
rends
in
U
nem ploym ent
Of the various forms of noncyclical unemployment that have been
discussed, structural unemployment in many ways presents the most
serious problems from the point of view of the national welfare. It
is most usually considered to result from changes in basic economic
conditions attending economic growth. These may embrace shifts
in consumer tastes, the relocation of industry, the evolution of tech
nological innovations, as well as new labor force patterns stemming
from trends in population growth or work habits. The effects of
structural unemployment may be confined to particular areas only,
or affect relatively small segments of the overall work force. But
this form of labor surplus is particularly likely to be long term in
nature.
A forthcoming study for the Joint Economic Committee will inves
tigate, so far as the available data permit, the impact of structural
unemployment upon geographical areas most affected. The atten
tion of this section is directed to the overall dimensions of the problem,
in particular its important historical aspects; the kinds of basic changes
likely to result in structural unemployment and their effect on total
unemployment; and the trend in the extent of noncyclical unemploy
ment. This examination of changes over time differentiates the
treatment here from preceding parts of this study which have focused
on the characteristics of the unemployed in a particular postwar
period most suitable (from some technical or conceptual point of
view) for the problem at hand.
Unfortunately, data limitations severely restrict the period that
can be observed in any detail to but a few years. In particular, the
years 1948 and 1956 have been selected for comparison because of
all the period for which household survey estimates are available
(1940 to present) these years were probably the least affected by the
major dislocations of World W ar II and the postwar periods.10 The
composition of the unemployed in both these years is compared to
see what changes, if any, took place in this group over an 8-year
period and to what extent they can be related to major changes in
the economic structure.
THE TREND IN TOTAL UNEM PLOYM ENT
From what little is known of the history of unemployment in the
United States, there is no very strong evidence of a distinct trend
toward higher or lower rates of unemployment. When the years of
the great depression and World W ar I are omitted, estimates for the
period 1900 to 1940, painstakingly pieced together from a variety of
sources, show a median (and modal) unemployment rate of slightly
under 5 percent.11 While the fluctuations about this rate were more
considerable in the earlier period (perhaps because of estimation
problems), the typical postwar rate of unemployment, excluding the
10 There is no special advantage here, as earlier, in using the 1957 estimates of unemployment by detailed
characteristics, since there are no comparable data for 1948. In addition, any comparison between 1948
and 1957, would be affected by the early effects of the 1958 business recession.
11 See Stanley Lebergott: “ Annual Estimates of Unemployment in the United States, 1900-1954" in
“ The Measurement and Behavior of Unemployment,” National Bureau of Economic Research Special
Conference Series, No. 8 , Princeton University Press, 1957. The median rate quoted here has been Con
verted roughly so that it is more comparable with the definitions of unemployment adopted by the
Census Bureau in 1957.
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
61
Korean years, was not materially different. In 1948, the overall rate
of unemployment was 3.8 percent; in 1956 it was 4.2 percent.
When yearly estimates of unemployment are based on averages of
regular monthly surveys, as has been the case since 1940, two some
times independent developments affect the average. One of these is
the number of different persons becoming unemployed, affecting the
total count through the number of new spells of unemployment re
ported each month; the other is the average duration of unemploy
ment, determining how many months in all, persons are counted during
each spell of unemployment.12 Each of these factors may reflect
different economic causes and their interrelationships are important
for evaluating the trend of total unemployment.
NEW
VERSU S
C O N T IN U IN G
UNEM PLOYM ENT
A comparison of the trend in the rates of new and continuing un
employment between 1948 and 1956 (table V - l ) shows some evidence
of a lengthening of the duration of unemployment, whereas the pro
portion of different persons looking for work each year remained about
the same. New unemployment is measured by the persons reporting
1 to 4 weeks of unemployment at the time of the survey while con
tinuing unemployment is measured by the number who reported look
ing for work longer than 4 weeks.13 The swings in total unemploy
ment over the period pretty much mirror fluctuations in the number
unemployed over 4 weeks. B y comparison, the rate expressing the
total number of persons unemployed each year was relatively much
more stable. A t the beginning and end of the period, the rate of new
unemployment was about the same, whereas the rate of continuing
unemployment rose by about 25 percent. All of the moderate in
crease in the rate of total unemployment was accounted for by the
proportionately much greater rise in the continuing unemployed.
T
able
V -l.— New
, c o n t in u in g , a n d total u n e m p lo y m e n t,1 1 9 4 8 —5 6
As a percent of civilian labor force
Number in thousands
Year
Total
1948........... ....................................
1949..............................................
1950.................... ..........................
1951............................................
1952............................. ............... .
1953...............................................
1954...............................................
1955........................................... .
1956............................................. .
3.4
5.5
5.0
3.0
2.7
2.5
5.0
4.0
3.8
New
Continuing
1 .8
2.4
2 .1
1 .6
1 .6
3.1
2.9
1.4
1.5
1.4
1 .2
1 .1
1.7
3.0
2.3
2 .0
1 .8
2 .0
Total
2,064
3,395
3,142
1,879
1,673
1,602
3,230
2,654
2,551
New
1,087
1,517
1,307
1,003
925
910
1,303
1,138
1,214
Continuing
977
1,878
1,835
876
748
692
1,927
1,516
1,337
i New unemployment is expressed as the number of persons reporting a spell of 1 to 4 weeks of unemploy
ment at the time of the survey; continuing, as the number reporting a spell of more than 4 weeks.
N ote .—Figures are based on old definition of unemployment.
12 The number of new spells reported each month is not an exact index of the number of different persons
becoming unemployed during the year, because of the fairly high proportion of persons experiencing two
or more spells. Studies since 1955 in the annual work experience surveys indicate, however, that this group
has remained a fairly constant proportion of the total of unemployed persons throughout.
13 Technically, this does not cover the occasional case when there are 5 weeks between surveys. The
estimates could be adjusted to take account of these cases, but it is not very likely that the effect on the
annual averages would be of any consequence. In table V -l, all estimates are expressed in terms of the orig
inal definitions used before January 1957. The two groups excluded from the unemployed on this basis,
persons on temporary layoff with instructions to return to work within 30 days and persons not in school
with new jobs to begin also within 30 days—increase the rate of new unemployment without changing the
trend. The groups excluded would be included among the continuing unemployed only insofar as they
had misunderstood or misreported their original status.
62
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
Other indexes of the duration of unemployment throw added light
on this trend. Despite the still tight labor markets of the Korean
period, the average duration of unemployment was at essentially the
1948 level during 1952 (table V -2). Between 1948 and 1956 this
average became almost 3 weeks longer. The increasing extent of
prolonged unemployment lasting 15 weeks or longer, and even more
so, 27 weeks or longer, appears to have been one of the most important
factors in this development. Fairly similar increases in duration
occurred among both men and women.
It is difficult to determine why an increase in unemployment be
tween these 2 years of relatively full employment should have taken
this form, since many of the statistics on detailed characteristics of
the long-term unemployed were not tabulated until around 1954.
However, certain possible causes may be eliminated and the proba
bility of others evaluated to a certain extent.
T
able
V -2. — Selected m e a su re s o f the d u ra tio n o f u n e m p lo y m e n t , 1 9 4 8 , 1 9 5 2 ,
and 19 5 6
Duration measure
1948
Annual average duration of unemployment (weeks)_________
Male____________________________________________________
Female.. ____________________________________ _____ ____
Percent of total unemployment reporting:
15 weeks or more unemployment
_____________________
27 weeks or more unemployment
_____________________
1952
8 .6
1956
8.3
9.2
7.1
11.3
1 2 .0
1 0 .0
(9
(0
13.9
5.0
15.0
5.6
20.9
9.1
i Not available.
N
o t e .—Figures
are based on old definition of unemployment.
CHANGES
IN
LABOR
FORCE
PATTERNS
AND
THE
RATE
OF
UNEM PLOYM ENT
It is possible for the unemployment rate for each of the major labor
force groups to remain unchanged, yet the overall rate change because
of shifts in the relative importance of the groups. These shifts may
occur because of population changes, new work habits, or other
characteristics of a growing economy, without any fundamental
disturbance in the usual rate of unemployment for the groups mainly
concerned, but with implications for the rate of total unemployment
if the groups becoming more important tend to have unemployment
rates significantly different from the average.
Two most important labor force trends in this period with potential
effect for the overall rate have been the continuing movement of
agricultural workers into nonfarm jobs and the sharply increasing
rate of labor force participation among women. Everything else
being equal, a labor force with a higher proportion of women would
probably have a higher overall rate of unemployment, since women
usually work in more marginal occupations than married men, who
make up the bulk of the male labor force. Similarly, since most of
the migration from the farm work force has been among self-employed
farmers or unpaid family workers, who in their original occupations
had an almost nonexistent degree of unemployment in the usual
survey sense, the movement of these persons into nonfarm jobs where
unemployment is more common could also be expected to raise the
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
63
overall rate of unemployment, even if the shift occurred without
disruption of the nonfarm job market.
The possible impact of these shifts on unemployment in 1956 is con
sidered in tables V -3 and V -4 . The change in the proportion of agri
cultural and nonagricultural workers between 1948 and 1956 implied
a shift of some 2 million farmworkers into nonfarm lines. Given a
constant rate of nonagricultural unemployment (the 1956 rate), the
net addition to the total unemployed resulting from the movement
between farm and nonfarm industries totaled only a comparatively
small 80,000. On the same basis, the impact of the new working
women was only slightly larger— amounting to a little over 100,000
additional unemployed. However, the effect of this addition was
more than offset by the consequences of the lower birth rates in the
1930’s for the 1956 labor force. Young adults 20 to 24 years old of
both sexes have even higher rates of unemployment. Therefore, the
net effect of the age-sex changes in the character of the labor force
between 1948 and 1956 tended toward a slightly lower overall level
of unemployment because of the decreased numbers of 20- to 24year-olds.14
The average duration of unemployment increased only by an esti
mated day and a half as a result of these labor force changes, assum
ing that the average for the groups themselves were not affected by
the shifts.
T a b le
V -3 .— Changes in experienced labor force and unemployed, 1948-56, by
type of activity and class of worker
Type of activity and class of worker
Change in
percent of
experienced
labor force
Experienced labor force..........................................................
Implied change i n 1—
Experienced
labor force
Experienced
unemployed
Thousands
Thousands
+80
Agriculture__________________________________________________
- 3 .2
-2,158
-2 1
Self-employed workers___________________________________
Wage and salary workers________________________________
Unpaid family workers__________________________________
- 3 .4
-.3
-.5
-1,595
-208
-354
-1 4
Nonagricultural industries______________________ _________ __
+ 3 .2
+2,158
+101
Self-employed workers............................... _..............................
Wage and salary workers________________________________
Unpaid family workers__________________________________
- 1 .2
+ 4 .2
-7 9 7
+2,842
+113
+108
+ .2
-6
-1
-8
+1
» Obtained for labor force by standardizing 1956 on the 1948 activity-class of worker distribution and
taking the difference between 1956 and 1956 standardized. Unemployment changes were derived by apply
ing the appropriate 1956 unemployment rates to the implied labor force changes.
N ote.—Figures are based on old definition of unemployment.
h The method for making these estimates is outlined in the footnotes to tables V -3 and V-4. The basic
assumption in the use of a hypothetical standardized distribution is that the change being measured oc
curred while all other factors remained constant. The two shifts discussed were treated separately and no
account was taken of their possible interactions with each other or other events.
64
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOTMENT
T a b l e V -4 .— Changes in
c iv ilia n lab o r fo rce a n d u n e m p lo y e d , 1 9 4 8 - 5 6 , by age
a n d sex
Change in
percent of
civilian
labor force
Age and sex
Both sexes, total........ ......................................... ....................
______________________________________________
14 to 17....................................... - ..................................................
18 to 2 4............................................... .................. .......................
25 and over______________________________________________
Total 2 un
employed
Thousands
Thousands
-8 9
-2,393
-155
- 2 .9
- .6
-1 6
-1,977
-4 0 0
-1 4 2
+ 3 .5
+2,393
+66
+ 1 i
Female, total
Civilian
labor force
—3.5
+36
-672
+3,029
+4
-4 4
+106
Male, total__________________________________________________
14 to 17...........................................................................................
18 to 24...........................................................................................
25 and over_________________________________ ______ _____
Implied change i n 1—
(2)
-2
-1 1
1 Obtained for labor force by standardizing 1956 on the 1948 age-sex distribution and taking the difference
between 1956 and 1956 standardized. Unemployment changes were derived by applying the appropriate
1956 unemployment rates to the Implied labor force changes.
2 Less than 0.05 percent*
N ote .—Figures are based on old definition of unemployment.
Two other relevant demographic changes should be considered: the
increasing population of both older and younger persons. The effect
of the first on the structure of the labor force was tempered during
this period by a persistent decline in the rate of labor force partici
pation among men past 65. The bulge in the youthful population
resulting from the wartime and postwar “baby b o o m /’ on the other
hand, had not yet pushed much past the age of 14 by 1956. The ordi
narily high rate of unemployment among youngsters and the typical
difficulties of the older worker in finding work, once losing a job,
mean that these two groups present special unemployment problems.
Larger numbers of workers in these ages in future years may change
the scope of the unemployment problem somewhat. Given usual
postwar unemployment rates for these ages and the labor force com
position projected from known trends, the overall rate of unemploy
ment may be expected to increase by at least 0.5 of a percent by 1975
as a result of these factors alone, in the absence of any counteracting
tendencies.
OTHER INDU STR Y-O CCUPATION CHANGES AND TH E RATE OF
UNEM PLOYM ENT
Unlike the labor force patterns so far discussed, other industryoccupation trends between 1948 and 1956 would have led to a some
what lower overall rate of unemployment, everything else considered
unchanged. The considerably greater increases in service-rendering
activities and related occupations as compared with the goods-producing industries placed a greater proportion of the labor force in
lines with customarily lower rates of unemployment. However, there
is some evidence that these changes did not occur without some dis
equilibrium in labor resource allocation, possibly figuring prominently
in the trend in total unemployment observed between these years.
The changing industry distribution of the unemployed between 1948
and 1956 is examined in table V -5 by breaking the change for each
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
65
industry into two components: unemployment resulting from merely
an increase or decrease in the size of the industry labor force, and the
structural unemployment attributable solely to a change in the in
dustry unemployment rate. The various industry changes worked
themselves out over the period so that, on balance, most of the net
difference in the total between 1948 and 1956 could be ascribed to
changes in labor force size, especially in the service sector. The
effect of changes in the rate of unemployment was offsetting between
the two major sectors, but workers in goods-producing industries
experienced a relatively large increase in structural unemployment as
compared to a reduction for the faster growing service industries.
T
able
V -5 .— C h a n g e s i n u n e m p lo y m e n t between 1 9 4 8 a n d 1 9 5 6 , b y m a jo r in d u s t r y
g ro u p f o r w age a n d s a la r y w orkers
Unemployment
rate
Change in unemployment
due t o 1—
1948
Total
Industry division
1956
Struc
tural
changes
Labor
force
changes
+113
+266
4.1
5.0
+298
+215
+83
Agriculture_____________________________________
Mining_________________________________________
Construction___________________________________
Manufacturing______________ __________________
4.7
2.3
7.4
3.5
6.5
6.4
8.3
4.1
+30
+26
+80
+162
+32
+30
+33
+120
-4
+47
+42
Service-rendering industries________________________
3.4
3.1
+81
-1 0 2
+183
Transportation_________________________________
Trade . _______________________________________
Service, including private household____________
Forestry and fisheries _________________________
Public administration__________________________
3.0
4.3
3.2
2.4
4.1
2.9
7.0
—27
Wage and salary labor force__________________
1 0 .8
2 .0
1 .6
1 OOCCI
+379
Goods-producing industries________________________
-7
—29
-2 1
—37
-3
-1 2
-2
+2
+56
+118
+2
+5
i The structural change in unemployment is obtained by applying the change in the rate of unemploy
ment between 1948 and 1966 to the appropriate 1956 labor force component. The labor force change is the
product of the appropriate 1948 rate of unemployment and the 1948-56 change in the associated labor force
component.
N ote.—Figures are based on old definition of unemployment.
“ Structural” unemployment is defined here in a very limited sense,
referring only to changes in specific unemployment rates over a fairly
brief period. In effect, the classification serves as a rough index of
whether the employment position of a particular segment of the labor
force was improving, without commitment as to how “ good” or “ bad”
the situation may have been to begin with. Also, an improvement in
the job position for a particular group is not an unconditionally favor
able development if it comes about at another’s expense or is a symp
tom of labor scarcities in the economy. Subject to qualifications of
this nature, significant changes in the rate of unemployment as between
two periods of relatively full employment may be taken as indications
of structural dislocations.
This same sort of analysis of the data is presented in table V -6 in
terms of occupational changes. Here again, unemployment resulting
from labor force change occurs mainly among white-collar or service
workers with structural unemployment as an offset. Manual workers,
comprising the bulk of goods-producing industries’ employees, again
66
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
show a comparatively sizable increase in structural unemployment. It
will be noted that the relative importance of the total structural
change is larger when obtained from the yearly occupation averages
based on only 4 months. The sampling variability is larger here so
that the 12-month industry averages must be taken as more reliable.
The relative character of the changes in goods-producing and servicerendering activities is the same for both sets of averages.
T a b le V -6 .— Changes in unemployment between 1948 and 1956, by major
occupation group
Unemployment
rate
Change in unemployment
due to i—
Major occupation group
1948
1956
Total
Struc
tural
changes
Labor
force
changes
Experienced labor force..........................................
3.0
3.4
+425
+210
+215
White-collar and service workers.....................................
2.5
2.4
+99
-6 4
+163
Professional, technical, and kindred.......................
Managers, officials, and proprietors........................
Clerical and kindred workers...................................
Sales workers...............................................................
Private household workers.......................................
Service workers...........................................................
1 .0
.8
2.4
2.7
4.2
4.8
-9
-1 5
+43
-1 4
+34
+60
-4 5
-1 7
+9
—30
+36
2.3
3.4
3.2
4.8
+21
-2
+34
+16
+ 13
+62
Manual workers.................................................................
3.5
4.4
+326
+274
+52
Farmers and farm managers...... ..............................
Craftsmen, foremen, and kindred workers............
Operatives and kindred workers.............................
Farm laborers..............................................................
Laborers, except farm and mine........ ....................
.2
.4
3.2
5.4
3.7
+6
+8
1.7
1 .0
2.9
4.1
2.3
7.5
8 .2
+44
+198
+35
+43
+26
+173
+42
+25
+2
-2
+18
+25
-7
+18
i The Structural change in unemployment is obtained by applying the change in the rate of unemploy
ment between 1948 and 1956 to the appropriate 1956 labor force component. The labor force change is the
product of the appropriate 1948 rate of unemployment and the 1948-56 change in the associated labor force
component.
N
o t e .—Figures
are based on old definition of unemployment.
Workers in goods-producing industries represent a disproportionate
number of the unemployed, even in relatively goods years, and their
average duration of unemployment is typically longer (table V -7).
The stability in the rate of new spells of unemployment, noted previ
ously, indicates that the structural component of the 1948 to 1956
changes reflects mainly changes in duration. Considering their faster
growing employment opportunities and declining rate of unemploy
ment, it is likely that the average duration of unemployment was
reduced for workers in the service sectors. Consequently, it also is
likely that the increases for goods-producing workers were longer than
observed for the aggregate of all the unemployed. The evidence that
this development was probably most important for the especially long
term groups—who make up one of the least mobile segments of the
working population—highlights its fundamentally structural char
acter.
67
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
T
V -7 .— E x p e r ie n c e d la b o r fo rce , u n e m p lo y m e n t , a n d lo n g -term u n e m p lo y m e n t
i n g o o d s-p ro d u c in g a n d se rv ic e -re n d e rin g in d u s t r ie s w age a n d s a la r y w o rk e rs ,
19 5 6
able
Percent distribution
Industry divisions
Experienced
Unemployed
labor force Unemployed 15 weeks or
longer
Total wage and salary workers_______________ ____ ____
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
1 0 0 .0
Goods, producing industries.......... ....................... ..... .....................
43.1
55.0
58.4
Agriculture _ ________ ______ . . _______________________
Mining....................................................................... .................
Construction........................... ........................................ ..........
Manufacturing. .......... .............. ...............................................
3.2
1.3
6.5
32.0
5.3
13.8
33.8
2.5
3.4
12.5
40.0
Service-rendering industries............................................................
56.9
45.0
41.6
Transportation.............................. ........... ................................
Trade............ .............................. .................- ............................
Service, including private household_____________________
Forestry and fisheries___ ______ _____________ __________
Public administration................... ............. ..............................
8.5
18.6
24.3
5.2
19.4
17.9
.3
5.5
17.8
16.1
1 Less than 0.05 percent.
N ote.—Figures are based on old definition of unemployment.
.2
5.3
2 .1
2 .2
0)
2 .1
68
Chabt 7
T r e n d s in u n e m p l o y m e n t r a t e s , I 9 4 8 a n d I956
10
SERVICE INDUSTRIES -----------110
GOODS-PRODUCING INDUSTRIES
1948
- 8
NATURE
- 6
AND
888) i9S6
EXTENT
P e rc e n t U n e m p lo y e d
P e rc e n t U n e m p lo y e d
OF
</
UNITEDSTATESDEPARTM
ENTOFLABOR
SUM
AUOf IABO*STATISTICS
UNEMPLOYMENT
.A *
V
FRICTIONAL
-4
EXTENT AND NATURE OF FRICTIONAL UNEMPLOYMENT
69
A faster rising outlay on services as compared to commodities has
had continuing and far-reaching effects on the general character of
labor force growth. Even in the short space of the 8 years between
1948 and 1956, the proportion of the experienced labor force employed
in goods-producing industries fell from around 45 to 41.5 percent.
Though migration from the farm was a major factor, the expansion
among other nonfarm goods-producers, particularly in manufacturing,
has not compared with the growth in services generally. Among
other things, the expanding service activities have also generated a
greater need for women workers and so contributed to the changing
complexion of the labor force.
For a number of reasons, a fundamental transformation such as is
involved in the goods-to-services shifts poses many obstacles to smooth
adjustments. Differences in skills, rates of pay, and hiring systems
as between workers in goods-producing industries and the servicerendering activities reduce the mobility of displaced workers and
impede their desire and ability to find equivalent places for themselves
in faster expanding alternatives.
It must be stressed, however, that the total effect observed over
this period was, on the whole, rather small without involving any
very extensive group of workers.
NEW
W O R K ER S
Normally labor force growth is more vigorous in prosperous years,
but the 1% million increase for 1956 was unusually large even for a
prosperous year. One factor also important, therefore, in explaining
differences from 1948 among the unemployed is the relatively larger
numbers of inexperienced persons looking for work in 1956 than
earlier. In 1948, those who had never held a full-time job made up
about 8.5 percent of the total unemployed; in 1956, around 11 percent.
Whether because of rapid absorption into expanding employment
opportunities or because of discouragement if jobs are not easy to
find, inexperienced workers make up an almost negligible proportion
of the long-term unemployed, so that their larger numbers in 1956
might have led one to have expected a somewhat different trend in
duration than actually observed.
o
@FedFRASER