Full text of H.16 Capital Market Developments : March 3, 1969
The full text on this page is automatically extracted from the file linked above and may contain errors and inconsistencies.
DEcoiiTBou.ro a m sit "0BTHa , - . 5 . 8 Confidential (F.RQ CtllAOHO . March 3, 1969 Oar^ mlkUi CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Capital Markets Section, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D. C. . INDEX 3-5 Developments in the Corporate and Municipal Bond Markets 6-7 Capital Market Yields 8-13 Capital Market Volume 14-17 Stock Market 18-33 Mortgage Market . TABLE 1: Yields, Volume arid Reception CORPORATE BOND MARKET VOLUME 2 i PER CENT GROSS BONDS SCHEDULED SOLD BY END OF WEEK WITHIN 28 DAYS MOODY'S Aaa OFFERINGS YIELDS WEEK ENDING: NEW ISSUE 1 - Jan. 3 . 10 17 24 31 1969 - Feb. 7 " 14 2(T 28 Mar. 7j>/ WEEK ENDING: 6.90 6.93 6.92 6.92 6.55 6.58 6.59 6.59 6.59 0 283 177 393 96 67 52 57 81 844 718 700 354 674 6.97 ' 6.91 6.90 6.93 6.63 6.66 6.66 6.68 172 340 150 E/265 85 74 iocr 100 689 504 545 524 n.a. n.a. — n.a. n.a. e/160 MUNICIPAL BOND MARKET VOLUME'! YIELDS PER CENT BONDS SCHEDULED SOLD BY END GROSS MOODY'S BOND BUYER WITHIN [28 DAYS OF WEEK Aaa 20 BOND INDEX OFFERINGS - Jan. 3 10 17 24 31 4.57 4.58 4.58 4.58 4.60 4.85 4.85 4.83 4.82 4.91 14 385 371 194 304 81 65 70 66 51 698 836 825 721 630 1969 - Feb. 7 14 20 28 4.72 4.72 4.70 4.80 4.96 4.96 4.95 5.04 200 71 341 £/340 69 720 77 v/ 76 51 645 510 A 48 n.a. n.a. n.a. Mar. 7p> n.a. e/135 1 Derived by adjusting to an Aa$t basis, new issues of publicly-offered, corporate bonds with call protection, rated A, Aa, or Aaa by Moody's Investors Service (except serial and convertible issues, offerings of natural gas pipeline and foreign companies, and bonds guaranteed by the Federal Government.) 2 Millions of dollars unless otherwise indicated. n. a.-- Not available. \ TABLE 2: Details on Inventories DATE OFFERED CORPORATE BONDS IN SYNDICATE END OF LATEST WEEK ORIGINAL RATING AND YIELD CALL PROTECTION ISSUER COUPON AMOUNT (MIL. $) 2/25 15.0 U.S. Shoe Corporation 7-1/8 7.20 A 10 yrs. ESTIMATED PROPORTION SOLD 657= X DATE OFFERED I RELEASED 2/25 2/25 2/11 CORPORATE BONDS RELEASED FROM, SYNDICATE DURING LATEST WEEK ORIGINAL INCREASE RATING AND ESTIMATED PROAMOUNT ISSUER COUPON IN YIELD CALL PROT. PORTION RELEASED YIELD 2/28 2/28 2/24 6-7/8 7-1/4 6.92 7.15 + 3 + 6 Aa Aa 7 7.00 +11 Aaa INVENTORIES 1 MUNICIPALS BLUE LIST | IN SYNDICATE DATE 1969 - Jan. Feb. Bethlehem Steel Gulf States Utilities Chesapeake & Potomac Telephone Company 31 7 14 20 ' 28^/ N.C. - No call protection, others as of Friday; 569 553 500 r/481 511 274 196 151 r/154 200e 10 yrs. 5 yrs. 10% 35% 5 yrs. 40% CORPORATES IN SYNDICATE ' ' p Daily average of three days ended Wednesday. in millions of dollars, e/ Estimated. 70 60 30 23 6e/ 1 i Blue Li^t is daily average; BONDS IN SYNDICATE Millions of dollars i—i i i—i—i—r—i—i—r—r CORPORATE BONDS IN SYNDICATE 200 100 i » .1 III ~r i i I r i r i i T~n MUNICIPAL BONDS IN SYNDICATE i r lliL r—i—i—ni—i—i—i—i—i r r 300 200 100 _J SEPT. DEC. •67 MAR. JUN. 1968 SEPT. DEC. MAR. I L_J ' JUN. 1969 L_l I •I SEPT. . DEC. J / TABLE 3: High Grade Bond Yields NEW CORPORATE MOODY'S SEASONED • CORPORATE ISSUES(ADJUSTED Aaa 1 TO Aaa BASIS) DATE U.S. GOVERNMENT 20-YEAR CONSTANT MATURITIES.2 SEASONED STATE AND LOCAL GOVERNMENT Aaa 3 1966 - High Low 5.99(9/2) 4.82(1/7) 5.52(9/9) 4.73(1/7) 5.04(2/9) 4.50(1/21) 4.04(8/25) 3.39(1/10) 1967 - High Low 6.55(12/8) 5.11(2/10) 6.24(2/29) 5.00(2/10) 5.73(11/7) 4.48(1/20) 4.15(12/28) 3.25(2/9) 1968 - High Low 7.02(12/13) 6.13(8/30) , 6.53(12/27) 5.95(9/13) 5.90(12/20) 5.18(8/9) 4.57(12/26) 3.80(8/8) 6.94 6.92 6.97 6.91 6.90 6.93/ 6.59 6.59 6.63 6.66 6.66 6.68^ 5.96 6.05 6.13 6.03 6.11 6.15 4.58 4.60 4.72 4.72 4.70 4.80 1969 - Jan. 24 , 31 Feb. 7 14 20 28 £ / p 1 2 3 Preliminary. Weekly average of daily figures. Average term of bonds included is 22-24 years. Weekly average of daily figures. Thursday figures. Only general obligation bonds are included; average term is 20 years. SOURCE: MOODY'S INVESTORS SERVICE Note--Highs and lows are for individual series and may be on different dates for different series. HIGH GRADE BOND YIELDS NEW CORPORATE A i a Aj / \ MOODY'S ^ CORPORATE Aaa U S. GOVT. 20-YR. CONSTANT MATURITIES MOODY'S MUNICIPAL Aaa 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 TABLE 4: Long:term Corporate and State and Local Government Security Offerings and Placements (In millions of dollars) NEW CAPITAL CORPORATE1 PERIOD January February March , 1,706 1*568 1,740 1,648 1,398 2,317 1,237 950e/ l,000e/ • 1 1,385 1,825 2,334 1,973 1,474 2,611 1,314, 1,140 • 1,396 1,111 1,229 1,497 2,091' 1,394 1,497 2,457 2^406 1,723 1,466 1,688 1,435 943 858 1,300 e/2,100 e/1,725 e/2,000 2,289 1,467 2,336 2,227 997 1,112 974 1,400 1,182 5,014 5,544 4,982 e/5,825 5,364 6,058 6,584 6,092 3,698 3,850 4,589 4,336 4,119 3,837 3,131 3,556 10,558 15,540 e/21,365 11,421 18,007 24,098 8,925 12,127 B/16,463 7,956 11,087 14,643 l,800e/ 1 October November December Quarter Quarter • Quarter Quarter 1st half Three quarters Year 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1969 p l,800e/ July August September - 1967 1,625c./ April - May June 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 1968p 1969p . Quarter Quarter Quartet Quarter Year e p 1 2 3, 5,225e/ STATE AND LOCAL 2 3,187 e/ 1968r/ 1967 1,138 1,156 1,394 1,482 1,196 1,438 Excluding finance companies 3 4,943 5,265 4,882 5,207 5,913 6,338 5,657 23,115 Estimated by Federal Reserve. Preliminary. Securities and Exchange Commission estimates of net proceeds. Investment Bankers Association of America estimates of principal amounts; Total new capital issues excluding offerings of sales and consumer finance companies. Note: Due to rounding components may not add. TABLE 5: New Corporate Security Issues, Type of Issue and Issuer (In millions of dollars) QUARTER OR MONTH 1967 - Ill IV 1968 - I II III w TOTAL 6,833 6,294 5,178 5,705 5,133 5,951 1968 - Jan. 1,771 1,607 Feb. 1,800 Mar. 1,428 Apr. 1,867 May June 2,418 July 2,144 Aug. 1,433 Sept. 1,556 Oct. i /2,129 Nov. i /I,767 Dec. i /2,055 1969 - Jan. e/ 1,860 GROSS PROCEEDS FOR NEW CAPITAL AND REFUNDING COMMON MEMO: AND BONDS ISSUES INCLUDED PUBLICLY PRIVATELY PFD. MFG. STOCK FOREIGN | CONVERTIBLE OFFERED PLACED 1,632 2,792 678 234 4,604 1,551 2,527 1,327 93 1,051 3,107 2,137 1,855 584 989 313 2,465 1,724 1,653 956 758 172 3,105 1,644 1,599 1,037 1,166 2,606 124 1,361 2,555 1,922 113 1,414 902 e /1»675 $03 796 766 ; 719 1,046 1,340 1,244 637 725 1,009 939 607 960 546 585 593 438 521 685 528 400 433 595 362 965 500 322 226 441 271 300 385 372 396 398 525 466 483 400 16 61 236 31 89 52 47 49 28 24 49 40 224 161 199 139 380 239 605 211 221 r/365 r/211 r/326 537 556 761 353 550 750 818 349 432 */625 e/410 £/640 e/ 400 NET PROCEEDS FOR NEW CAPITAL 1 2 COMMUNICATIONS OTHER ISSUES 595 269 411 529 483 e/305 1,976 2,040 1,356 2,159 1,758 e/2,460 186 417 546 147 78 431 178 189 103 549 237 474 236 236 438 92 469 155 e/665 elllO 3'410 £7i55 e/40 3/310 e/ 575 e/ 150 566 321 469 663 622 874 801 515 442 PUBLIC UTILITY 1,219 1,255 1,394 1,201 1,143 e/1,385 e/700 e/750 */l,010 p Preliminary, e Estimated by Federal Reserve. 1 Gross proceeds exceed net proceeds by the cost of flotation. 2 For total see Table 4; other issuers are extractive, railroad and other transporation, real estate and finance, and commercial and other. SOURCE: Securities and Exchange Commission. Quarterly supplements are available, r/ Revised. e/675 ' , ' • • TABLE 6: Large Long4erm Public Security Issues for New Capital (Other than U.S. Treasury) ISSUER ' TYPE AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLAR j) MATURITY During February, 1969. C0l)P0N OFFER- MOODY'S RATE OR RATING NET INTER. INC YIELD EST COST Corporate Duplan Corporation ^Surveyor Fund Inc. ; Kansas City Power & Light Company Duke Power Company Philadelphia Electric Co. Chesapeake & Potomac Tel. Co. (Wash.) Owens Corning Fibreglass Manufacturers Bank of Detroit ^Northern States Power Tesoro Petroleum International Leisure Corp Forest Oil Corporation Forest Oil Corporation Pan American World Airways PUlsbury ^Company Southern Company Instrument Systems Corp. State Street Bank & Trust Company Del Monte Corporation Atlantic City Electric Co. New Jersey Gulf States Utilities Bethlehem Steel Corp. U.S. Financial Castle & Cooke, Inc. *Walt Disney Productions FRASER UiS. Shoe Corporation Digitized for Conv. sub. debs. Com. stki 15.0 29.2 1994 5.50 5.50 1st mtg. bds. 1st & ref. mtg. bds. Pfd. stk. 26.0 1999 if 1999 7-1/8 7.07 Aaa 7.00 7.06 Aaa Debs. S.F. debs. 50; 0 30. 0 2009 . 1994 7.00 6-7/8 7.06 6.92 Aaa A 5.00 5.00 N. R. 5-1/4 5.25 5-1/2 5.50 B 5-1/4 4-3/4 5.25 4.75 Ba Baa 6 6.00 B 75.0 40.0 Conv. cap. notes 15. 0 1994 Com. stk. 29. 2 Debs. 25. 0 1989 Units 25. 0 Conv. debs. 25; 0 1994 Com. stk. 16.,8 • Conv. debs. 175..0 1989 Conv. debs. 20,.0 1989 Com. stk. 66,.0 Conv. sub. debs. 25..0 1977 Cap. notes. Conv. debs. 20.0 30 .0 Com stk. 18 .6 1st mtg. bds. 25 .0 Debs. 100 .0 Conv. sub. debs. 15,.0 Conv. debs. 30,.0 50,.0 Conv. debs. 15 .0 Debs. 4 1994 1994 5.00 . 5.00 5-1/4 5.25 1999 1999 1989 1994 1994. 1994 7-1/4 6-7/8 5-1/2 5-3/8 5 7-1/8 Ba 7.15 6.93 Aa Aa 5.37 5.00 7.20 Ba — . TABLE 6: Large Long-term Public Security Issues for New Capital (Other than U.S. Treasury) (continued) ISSUER TYPE AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) MATURITY COUPON RATE OR NET INTEREST COST OFFERING YIELD MOODY 1 S RATING Corporate Kaufman & Broad Inc. Alco Standard Corp. Com. stk. Com. stk. 16,3 15.0 State & local Government State of Connecticut G.O. State of Vermont G.O. Atlantic Co. Improvement Authority, New Jersey Rev.-Rent. Kentucky Turnpike Auth. Rev. Kentucky Turnpike Auth, Rev. Tacoma, Washington Rev.-Rent. Grand River Dam Auth. ,Okla.Rev. Grand River Dam Auth. ,0kla.Rev. State of Maine Bonds Milwaukee Co., Wisconsin G.O. Puerto Rico Water Resources Authority Rew-Ut. Los Angeles Dept. of Water and Power Rev. -Ut. Fairfax Co., Virginia G.O. Genesee Co., Michigan Bonds Hawaii, State of G.O. Wisconsin State Agencies Building Corporation Rev. Wisconsin State Agencies Building Corporation Rev. Hpus ing Ass istance Admin. Bonds Georgia Education Auth, Rev.-Rent. 60.0 30.0 1970-89 1970-88 4.68 4.58 12.5 10.0 80.4 16.0 13.6 6.4 14.9 11.6 1971-98 1972-81 2008 4/ 1972-2014— 2008 • 1971-92 1970-99 1970-89 n.a. 4.50-6.00 n.a. 4.50-5.25 n.a. . 4.50-5.25 5.71 4.40-5.80 5.92 4.50-5.80 5.92 4.50-5.80 4.57 3.90-5.35 4.59 3.90-4.75 Baa Baa Baa N.R. N.R. Aaa Aaa 30.0 1971-2000 5.41 4.25-5.40 A 21.0 17.2 10.0 30.0 1970-99 1970-94 1969-93 1972-89 5.04 5.16 5.04 5.09 4.00-5.20 4.20-5.75 3.90-5.10 4.25-5.20 Aa Baa Aa A 20.5 1970-2003 5.30 4.00-5.30 Aa 35.6 137.3 13.2 1974-76 1969-2009 1970-94 4.73 5.14 5.05 4.50-4.60 3.80-5.25 4.00-5.30 Aa Aaa Aa \ 3.90-4.75 3.90-4.70 Aaa "Aaa —— TABLE 6: Large Long-term Public Security Issues for New Capital (Other than U.S. Treasury)1 (continued) ISSUER TYPE AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) MATURITY COUPON RATE OR NET INTEREST COST 1969, OFFERING YIELD MOODY'S RATING Other —^ Province of Ontario Federal Home Loan Banks Westcoast Production Co., Ltd. Province of Nova Scotia Home Oil Co., Ltd. (Canada) Federal Natlbnal Mortgage Association * 1 2 3 Debs. Bonds. Com. stk. S.F. debs Com. stk. Debs. 75.0 200.0 1999 1971 19.2 25.0 1994 7-5/8 6-3/4 6.75 7.45 6.60 Aa 5.67 —— —— 38.7 250.0 Rights offering. n.a. Not available. Includes corporate and other security offerings of $15 million and over; State and local security offerings of $10 million and over. Includes foreign government and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development issues and non-guaranteed issues by Federal Agencies. In case of State and local government securities, G.O. denotes general obligation; Rev.-Ut., revenue obligations secured only by income from public utilities; Rev.-Q.-Ut., revenue bonds secured only by income from quas.i-utilities; Rev.-S.T., revenue bonds secured by revenue from specific taxes only; Rev.-Rent., revenue bonds secured solely by lease payments. Bonds maturing in 2013-14 not reoffered. 4 TABLE 7: Forthcoming Large Long-term Public Security Offerings for New Capital (Other than U.S. Treasury)1 (continued) ISSUER TYPE AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF . DOLLARS) 1969. APPROXIMATE DATE OF OFFERING Corporate Sunshine Mining Texas Electric Service Co. Ohio Power Company Ohio Power Company Gulf Power Company Teledyne Inc. G.A.C. *N. Y. Telephone Company Talcott National Corporation *Public Svc. Elec. & Gas Co. F. & M. Schaefer Corporation Alexander's Dept. Stores G.S.I. Computer Gamble-Skogmo, Inc. Beneficial Finance Integrated Container Service Polaroid Corporation Conv. sub. debs. Bonds Debs. 1st mtg. bds. Bonds Debs'. Conv. debs. Bonds Conv. sub. debs. 1st & ref. mtg. bds. Com. stk. Com. stk. Com. stk. Cap. notes Debs. Com. stk. Com. stk. 25.0 15.0 15.0 70.0 15.0 30.0 70.0 150.0 35.0 75.0 39.0 20.0 30.0 20.0 50.0 20.0 136.0 March 3 March 4 March 5 March 5 March 6 March 11 March 11 March 11 March 24 April 1 March Indefinite Indefinite . Indefinite Indefinite .Indefinite Indefinite (rts. exp: State' & local Government Phila. Sch. Dist., Pa. Bonds *N. Y. State Housing Finance Agency Bonds MassT^Port Auth. Rev.-rent. Arlington Co., Va. G.O. Nashville & Davidson Co./fem, Rev. *State of West Virginia Bonds California, State of Bonds ^Illinois Building Auth. Bonds *The New Jersey Turnpike Auth. Rev. King Co., Washington G.O. ^Commonwealth of Pennsylvania Bonds "Genesee Co., Michigan Bonds *San Francisco BART. Bonds Richmond Metro. Auth., Va. Bonds Cobb Co., Georgia Rev.-Ut. 30.0 ' 63.0 105.6 13.0 15.0 20.0 40.0 37.0 100.0 33.5 . 90.0 • 30.0 70.0 100.0 37.0 March 18 March 19 March March March March . 4 March 5 March 11 March 12 March April 8 April 10 April 10 Indefinite Indefinite TABLE 7: Forthcoming Large Long-term Public Security Offerings for New Capital (Other than U.S. Treasury)as o f F e h r u a r y ISSUER TYPE. AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 28 , 1969. APPROXIMATE DATE OF OFFERING Other —/ Neon Products of Canada Ltd. ^Province of Manitoba * 1 Conv. debs. Debs. 20.0 50.0 March March 11 Included in table for first time. Includes corporate and other issues of $15 million and over; State and local Government issues of $10 million and over. 2 Includes foreign government and International Bank.for Reconstruction and Development issues and non-guaranteed issues of Federal Agencies. Postponed this week were: Albany Co. N. Y.'s $70 million issue--"market conditions"; Housing Assistance Administration's $11.3 million of its original $148 million offering Alco Standard Corp. postponed $15 million of its original $30 million stock offering Levin-Townsend also postponed its $35 million convertible offering due to "market conditions." TABLE 8: Stock Prices, and Volume STOCK PRICES 1 500° D.J. - IND. TRADING VOLUME 2 , H AMEX- NYSE .1966 - High Low 94.06(2/9) 995.15(2/9) 73.02(10/7) 774.32(10/7) 17.00(4/21) 12.07(10/7) 10.74(4/15) 5i0(9/23) 6.1(4/15) 1.3(9/23) 1967 - High Low 97.59(9/25) 943.08(9/25) 80.38(1/3) 786.41(1/3) 24.52(12/29) 13.78(1/27) 12.3(12/29) 6.9(1/6) 6.7(10/27) 2.1(1/6) 1968 - High Low 108.37(11/29)985.21(12/3) 87.72(3/5) 825.13(3/21) 33.25(12/20) 22.00(3/22) 17.1(7/12) 8.2(3/29) 9.2(5/31) 2.9(3/29) 1969 - Jan.-24 31 102.38 103.01 938.59 946.05 32.60 32.66 11.8 11.9 6.7 8.0 7 103.53 .14 103.61 20 99.79 28£, 98.13 947.85 951.95 916.65 905.21 32.60 32.56 30.94 29.98 12.8 11.8 r/11.4 10.7 6.6 5.9 r/5.8 4.6 Feb. Preliminary. Figuresexcept highs and lows are Friday's only. Highs and lows are for the year and are not necessarily for Friday's. Averages of daily trading volume On the New York and American Stock Exchanges. Millions of shares. 1941-43 = 10 Based on actual dollar value, rather than a formula. STOCK PRICES AND TRADING VOLUME AM EX Weekly STOCK PRICES AMEX PRICE LEVEL INDEX AMEX TRADING VOLUME NYSE TRADING VOLUME 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 TABLE 9: Stock Market Credit CREDIT EXTENDED TO CUSTOMERS BY: BROKERS 1 | BANKS 2 | TOTAL END OF PERIOD CUSTOMERS1 NET DEBIT BALANCES NET CREDIT CUSTOMERS'NET EXTENDED BY FREE CREDIT BROKERS AND DEALERS 3 BALANCES Outstanding: 1968 - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct, Nov.' Dec. 1969 - Jan.2/ 1 6,170 6,150 6,190 6,430 6,640 6,690 6,500 6,460 6,390 6,250 6,200 6,200 5,910 2,430 • 2,420 2,370 2,350 2,360 2,410 2,420 2,490 2,520 2,560 2,630 2,710 2,750 8,600 8,570 8,560 8,780 9,000 9,100 8,920 8,950 8,910 8,810 8,830 8,910 8,660 7,797 7,419 7,248 7,701 8,268 8,728 8,860 8,489 8,724 8,859 8,994 9,876 9,169 2,942 2,778 2,692 2,979 3,064 3,293 3,269 2,984 3,126 3,406 3,422 3,717 3,597 4,855 4,641 4,556 4,722 5,204 5,435 5,591 5,505 5,590 5,543 5,572 6,159 5,572 -160 -30 -10 220 220 100 80 30 -40 100 20 . r/80 -250 151 378 -171 453 567 460 132 -371 235 135 135 782 -707 -179 -164 -86 287 85 229 -24 -285 142 280 16 295 -120 -328 -214 -85 166 482 231 156 -86 85 -47 29 Change in: Outstanding 1968 - Jan. . Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.2/ 1 2 3 -130 -20 40 240 210 50 -190 -40 -70 -140 -50 -290 -30 -10 -50 -20 10 50 10 70 30 40 70 " 80 40 587 -587 Margin debt, as reported by the New York Stock Exchange. Although margin debt until March 1968 included loans secured by U.S. governments, the amount of such loans included is thought to have been small. "Bank loans to others than brokers and dealers for purchasing or carrying securities other than U.S. governments." —. The difference between customers' net debit balances and customers net free credit balances, this figure represents the net credit extended by brokers and dealers to the nonfinancial public. NOTE: With the exception of bank loan data, figures are supplied by the New York Stock Exchange and are end of month data. Bank loans are for weekly reporting large commercial banks, r/ Revised. • \ • TABLE 10: Savings Flows at N on bank Depositary Intermediaries ($ millions) \ ' MUTUAL SAVINGS BANKS NET. REGULAR DEPOSITS 3 ANNUAL .. NEW MONEY 2 GROWTH NET RATE 1 FLOW DATE TOTAL SAVINGS i5c LOAN ASSOCIATIONS NET < DEPOSITS . SHARE CAPITAL NEW ANNUAL ANNUAL ' GROWTH NET GROWTH MONEY 2 NET 1 RATE 1 FLOW FLOW RATE • 1966 1967 1968 £/ 2,591 5,079 4,158 . 4.9 9.3 7.0 1967 - Nov. Dec. 1968 - Jan. 321 627 262 __ 1968 - Nov. Dec. 1969 - Jan. P/ 359 674 200 __ 1968 - Sept. Oct. Nov. ' . Dec.j)/ 356 364 397 339 6.8 6.9 7.5 r/6.4 1969 - Jan. 199 3.7 —— -- 1 \ 1 NET , NEW MONEY 2 ' \\ Not Seasonally Ad iusted 227 2,376 1,139 3,656 10,686 7,333 273 -17 162 582 1,612 -251 293 -26 100 648 1,579 -73 3.3 9.1 5.9 __ — • -552 6,136 2,676 6,247 15)765 11,941 3.8 9. 2 6.3 552 157 -270 873 239 11 -- 825 147 108 618 r/ 178 -114 1,007 2,253 127 -- 911 r/152 -14 -- 1,126 1,157 881 888 7.1 7.2 6.1 5.5 -- 711 4.4 -- -325 8,512 3,815 Seasonally Adjusted 1 2 3 p jj/ -- 770 • 793 585 553 -- 512 -———- 7.2 7.4 5.5 5.1 r/4.7 -—— -- ' -— —- . -- Annual growth rate for monthly data is the annualized monthly percentage increase in deposits Net New Money is the net change in deposits net of both withdrawals and interest. Data for S&Ls are for insured associations only, which represent 96% of the total resources of the industry. Regular deposits at mutual savings•banks exclude items such as Christmas club and certain escrow accounts, Which represent a very small part of total deposits-. SOURCE: National Association of Mutual Savings Banks and Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Preliminary. r/ Revised. - SAVINGS FLOWS (seasonally adjusted) Monthly Millions of dollars 1200 800 400 SAVINGS & LOANS 800 400 MUTUAL SAVINGS BANKS 400 1965 1966 1967 1968 1969 TABLE 11: Mortgage Commitments at Selected Thrift Institutions DATE OUTSTANDING COMMITMENTS ALL MUTUAL SAVINGS SAVINGS & TOTAL . BANKS * LOAN (N.Y. STATE) ASSOCIATIONS \ 1967-Dec. 1968-Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug; Sept. Oct. Nov. .Dec o 2.1 1 8.5 8.4 8.5 8.6 8.8 8.6 8.6 8.6 9.0 9.1 9.5 9.8 9.8 , TOTAL 1 NET CHANGE ALL SAVINGS & LOAN .. ASSOCIATIONS MUTUAL SAVINGS BANKS (N.Y. STATE) (Billions of Dollars, Se«isonally Adjusted) 1/ 5.9 5.8 5.9 6.1 6.2 6.1 6.0 6.1 6.2 6.2 6.5 6.6 6.7 / . 2.6 2.6 2.5 2.5 2.5 2.6 2.6 2.7 2.9 2.9 3.0 3.2 3.1 ' -.04 -.05 .05 .18 .11 -.13 -.05 .19 .24 •U .35 .27 .03 .03 .10 .16 .11 -.15 -.10 .11 .08 • 07 - .22 .10 .12 Based on data from Federal Home Loan Bank Board.and Savings Bank Association of New York State. Net changes are derived directly from unrounded outstandings levels as reported and after seasonal adjustment by Federal Reserve. Subtotalsmay not add to totals because of rounding. " -.07 -.05 -.05 .02 . 0 .02 .06 .08 .16 .04 .13 .17 -.10 ' MORTGAGE COMMITMENTS OUTSTANDING (saar) Billions of dollars Monthly 10 TOTAL S&L'S MSB'S 1961 1963 1965 1969 TABLE 12: Net Change in Mortgage Holdings 1 TOTAL INCLUDING FNMA TOTAL FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS SAVINGS MUTUAL & COMMERCIAL SAVINGS LOANS BANKS BANKS LIFE INSURANCE COMPANIES 4,761 6,365 6,469 6,303 4,813 6,431 6,403 5,947 823 1,749 1,805 1,322 965 946 1,072 1,078 1,860 2,706 2,460 .1,947 1,165 1,030 1,066 1,600 5,413 5,671 3,953 3,088 4.618 5,120 3,445 2.619 975 1,656 1,300 774 753 513 739 715 1,671 1,674 350 86 1,219 1,277 1,056 1,044 2,623 4,8966,275 6,290 2,273 4,790 5,696 5,528 151 1,200 1,751 1,537 770 786 839 758 492 2,147 2,585 2,364 860 657 521 869 1,421 1,540 1,788 . 1,969 2,227 2,101 1,819 1,950 1,953 2,308 2,081 2,319 1,071 1,236 1,514 1,723 1,992 1,881 1,667 1,809 1,845 2,147 1,936 2,147 300 400 400 616 616 616 500 500 700 800 700 400 215 197 137 160 203 219 248 233 221 313 310 319 381 542 789 879 957 877 719 875 809 846 731 r/764 175 97 188 68 216 169 200 201 115 188 195 664 • 639 1 Monthly data for commercial banks based on Federal Reserve estimates benchmarked to Call Report data on real estate loans outstanding as available. Other data .derived "from mortgage debt outstanding as reported separately by National Assn. of Mutual Savings Banks-, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Institute of Life Insurance and the Federal National Mortgage Association. Data for mutual savings banks and for life insurance companies may differ somewhat from those derived from regular quarter ly_ series because of minor conceptual differences for which adjustments are not made in the monthly series. NET CHANGE IN MORTGAGE HOLDINGS Monthly Billions of dollars 13.0 2.5 TOTAL, INCL FNMA 1.5 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 1966 1967 1968 1.0 1965 QUARTER TOTAL I II : III IV 25.5 25.3, 25.7 26.2 TABLE 13: Net Increases in Mortgage Debt Outstanding 1 ("Seasonally Adjusted Annual Rate) 1- to 4- MULTIMULTI-AND RESIDENTIAL FAMILY FAMILY COMMERCIAL COMMERCIAL 18.6 15.1 15.1 15.5 15.8 3.5 3.5 3.8 3,8 4.2 4.5 4.4 4.6 , 8.0 8.3 7.9 2.2 2.4 14.7 4.3 3.3 2.3 6.1 7.0 11.7 9.4 7.7 5.6 2.2 2.1 7.3 1.8 29.1 23.6 17.7 14.6 19.0 15.3 12.1 9.2 8.3 7.2 1967 - I II II LV 16.2 lilo 9.9 13.7 19.1 20.9 1968 - I II . ; II. IV 27.7 26.0 25.7 284 1 ^ 2.2 18.5 19.3 19.6 1966 - I • II III IV 20.3 FARM 10.6 18.2 18.5 18.0 n. a. 6.8 10.5 15.3 16.5 16.3 14.6 14.6 n.a. 2.0 5.1 4.0 3.1 3.3 3.8 4.4 3.8 4.8 4.8 5.1 2.0 6.3 5.3 5.5 n. a. 3.9 3.4 ri. a. 8.1 8.0 2.1 2.4 1.7 1.9 2.4 2.6 4.6 9.2 9.2 2.5 2.3 2.3 n. a. Derived from data on mortgage debt outstanding from Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Institute of Life Insurance, National Association of Mutual Savings Banks, Departments of Commerce and Agriculture, Federal National Mortgage Association, Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Administration and Comptroller of the Currency. Separation of nonfarm mortgage debt by type of property, where not available, and interpolations and extrapolations, where required, estimated by Federal Home Loan Bank Board and the Federal Reserve. Residential mortgage debt includes nonfarm only and is sum of 1-to 4- family and multifamily mortgage de^t combinedi E./ Preliminary. NET INCREASES IN MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING Quarterly Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate . TOTAL 24 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 7 1-4 FAMILY COMMERCIAL MULTIFAMILY 1965 1967 1969 / TABLE 14: FNMA Weekly "Auction" Results COMMITMENTS WEEKENDED TOTAL' OFFERED IMPLICIT Y1ELD2/ (per cent) IN $ MILLIONS ACCEPTED 906901-1/ 61MONTH Year&ov< :r DAY MONTH YE1AR & over DAY V TOTAL Dec. 2 9 • 16 23 30 119.9 105.1 93.7 123,3 104.4 57.9 56.1 56.6 56.3 62.4 17.5 18.4 15.1 15.3 20.4 25.8 23.5 32.6 31.6 32.3 14.6 14.1 8.9 9.4 9.8 7.43 7.47 7.52 7.55 7.61 7.46 7.51 7.57 7.60 7.65 7.35 7.42 7.46 7.48 7.49 Jan, 6 13 21 27 82.1 127.5 124.3 232.9 59.8 57.9 61.4 61.0 16.9 . 8.1 9.8 8.4 28.4 36.7 39.1 38.6 14.5 13.0 12.5 14.1 7.63 7.67 7.69 7.82 7.66 7.68 7.72 7.86 7.48 7.52 7.54 7.66 Feb. 3 10 17 24 320.6 285.7 226.7 167.2 80.0 '102.4 il00.9 100.1 5.3 6.8 6.9 11.2 35.9 46.2 38.4 48.7 38.8 49.4 55.6 40.1 7.98 8.01 8.04 8.09 7.99 8.05 8.09 8.14 7.82 7.91 7.95 8.00 Mar. 3 Note: 1(90.0) - Under the FNylA auction system, approved sellers , of Governmentunderwritten mortgageis bid for FNMA forward purchase commitments, subject to an over-all dollar limit announced by FNMA in advance. Bids accepted by FNMA are for delivery at the seller's option, and at any time within the specified period. Bids on proposed homes relate to construction not yet started on which mortgages may be delivered only after completion and occupancy. 1 For "proposed construction" of new homes only. 2 Average secondary market yield after allowance-for commitment fee and required purchase and holding of FNMA stock, assuming prepayment in 15 years for 30-year Government-underwritten mortgages. Yields shown are gross, before deduction of 50 basis point fee paid by investors to servicers. 3 FNMA announced limit of accepted bids for next week's auctions WEEKLY "AUCTION" RESULTS . AMOUNT OF ACCEPTED BIDS BY COMMITMENT PERIOD * lillions 120 100 80 60 6-MONTHS 40 20 1 YEAR | 9 0 DAYS • cent IMPLICIT YIELD 8.0 6 - M O N T H COMMITMENTS 76 7.2 6.8 JUNE AUGUST 1968 OCTOBER DECEMBER FEBRUARY 1969 APRIL TABLE 15: Private housing starts and Permits STARTS DATE 1968 - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. . Dec. 1969 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE TOTAL 1-FAMILY 2 OR MORE 1,456 1,537 1,511 1.591 1.364 1.365 1,531 1,518 1.592 1,570 1,733 1,492 912 1,075 920 922 838 790 904 867 944 965 r/905 r/917 544 462 591 669 526 575 627 651 648 605 r/828 r/575 TOTAL UNADJUSTED TYPE OF FINANCING FHA | VA |. OTHER 80.5 13.9 84.6 17.0 126.6 19.6 162.0 22.6 140.9 20.5 137.9 - 19.8 139.8 18.8 136.6 20.9 134.3 18.6 140.8 21.4 17.5 r/127.1 r/ 95.5, r/16.3 63.2 3.4 63.5 4.1 102.4 4.5 5.4 134.0 5.5 114.9 5.0 113.1 4.9 116.2 4.8 110.9 4.6 111.1 5.3 114.0 4.2 r/105.4 4.4 I./74.8 BUILDING PERMITS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE) 2 1,148 1,394 1,416 1,340 1,280 1,281 1.289 1.290 1,393 1,378 1,425 r/1,463 Jan. 1,816 1,028 788 98.7 14.1 3.8 80.8 1,352 Total starts are Census estimates including farm for both permit-issuing and | non-issuing areas. A dwelling unit is started when excavation begins; all units : | in an apartment structure are considered started at that time. FHA and Va starts are units started under commitments by these agencies to insure or guarantee the mortgages. As reported by FHA and VA, a unit is started when a field '' office receives the first compliance inspection report, which is made before footings are poured in some cases but normally after the foundations have been | completed. Capehart military housing, units are excluded. Other starts are derived as a residual, although total and FHA and VA starts are not strictly comparable in concept or timing; other starts include both units financed by con- : ventional mortgages and units without mortgages. Building permits before January 1963 are Census estimates for about 10,000 areas 'i identif ied as having a local building permit system in 1959. Estimates beginning J January 1963, are for approximately 12,000 and beginning January 1967 13,000, or | all known permit-issuing places. Unlike starts, seasonally adjusted building per? mits reflect direct adjustment for differences in the number of working days per f month, as well as other differences in timing and coverage. .2 r Revised. Preliminary. 5 PRIVATE HOUSING STARTS AND PERMITS Monthly, annual rates Millions of units SEASONALLY ADJUSTED DATA 2.0 1.6 HOUSING STARTS 1.2 BUILDING PERMITS (in issuing areas) PER CENT OF UNADJUSTED TOTAL STARTS MULTI-FAMILY 40 (3 or more) GOVERNMENT UNDERWRITTEN 1963 1965 1967 1969 TABLE 16: Mortgage andSond Yields FHA MORTGAGES 2 • DATE 25-YEAR 30-YEAR 1957 - High 1958 - Low 1969-60 - High 1 9 6 1 - 6 6 - Low 1966 - High 1967 - High Low 1968 - High Low 1968 - Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1969 - Jan. 1 2 3 4 5 5.63 5.35 6.24 5.43 6.73 n.a. n.a. n. a. n. a. | n.a. n.a. n. a. n. a. 5.44 6.81 6.81 6.29 7.52 6 . 78 -7.28 7.29 7.36 7.50 -- CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGES 3 6.00 5.55 6.30 5.80 6.70 6.65 6.40 7.30 6.75 7.30 7.25 7.30 7.40 7.55 NEW Aaa CORPORATE BONDS 5 SPREAD BETWEEN YIELDS ON NEW CORPORATE BONDS AND FHA MORTGAGES .47 .15 .23 .25 .30 .11 -.12 .02 -.27 4.94 3.65 . 5.25 4.41 5.82 . 6. 51 5.18 6.79 6.15 1.58 . 88 1.69 .77 1.16 1.28 .27 1.20 .26 .02 -.04 -.06 • - .10 6.27 6.47 6.61 6.79 6.92 1.01 .82 -75 .71 • SPREAD BETWEEN YIELDS ON CONV. & FHA MORTGAGES 4 " ^ 1 Neither mortgage nor bond yields take into account servicing costs which are much higher for mortgages than bonds. Generally, bonds pay interest semiannually; mortgages, monthly. Mortgage yields, if computed as equivalent to a semi-annual interest investment, would be slightly higher than given in the table. Based on FHA-field-office opinions about average bid prices in the private secondary market for new-home mortgages for immediate delivery. Separate . data available for 25-year and—beginning July 1961--30-year mortgages with minimum downpayments, weighted b y probable volume of transactions. Yields computed by FHA,, assuming prepayment period of 12 years for 25-year mortgages and 15 years for 30-year mortgages. Over the period for which they can be compared, the movement of the two mortgage yield-series has been similar. Dashed lines indicate periods of adjustment to changes in contractual interest rates. . Based on FHA-field-office opinion on typical interest rates (rounded) on conventional first mortgages prevailing in the market areas of insuring office cities. Beginning with April 1960, rate relates only to new-home mortgages; prior to that date, rate related to both new as well as existing-home mort- gages. Dashed line indicates this change in the series. FHA mortgage yield data are for 25-year mortgages through June 1961; 30-year mortgages thereafter. See note for Table I.(Data prior to 1965 is based on a composite of issues with and without call protection.) n.a. Not available. » | 1 1 - ! : 31 MORTGAGE AND BOND YIELDS Monthly HOME MORTGAGES: CONVENTIONAL FHA Aaa CORPORATE BONDS: NEW ISSUES 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 TABLE 17: Conventional Mortgage Terms DATE NEW HOMES CON- FEES & TRACT CHARGES EFFEC- MATURITY (YEARS) (PER TIVE RATE CENT) RATE (PER CENT) 3 . 2 1 EXISTING HOMES CON- FEES & LOAN/ LOAN/ TRACT CHARGES EFFEC- MATU- PRICE PRICE LOAN (PER RATE RITY RATIO RATIO AMT. TIVE CENT) RATE (YEARS) (PER (PER ($000) - (PER CENT) CENT) CENT). 2 3 & LOAN i AMT. *' ($000, 1968 Mar. June r/25.9 7.16 0.84 72.9 74.5 74.3 73.4 73.2 74.4 73.7 73.6 74.2 74.5 74.1 7<0 r/21.5 r/21.9 r/22.2 r/21.9 r/21.7 r/22.3 r/22.2 r/22.6 r/22.1 r/22.7 r/22.5 r/24.7 6.97 7.10 7.12 7.11 7.09 7,07 7.09 73.6 r / 2 4 . 1 7.17 6.57 6.58 6.59 6.64 6.81 0.82 0.81 0.79 0.80 0.87 0.86 0.83 0.85 6.70 6.71 6.72 6.77 6.95 7.12 7.23 22.7 22.6 23.0 . 22.6 22.5 22.6 0.85 7.25 7.22 7.21 7.23 22.5 22.7 22.6 22.5 22.7 r/23.3 .0.84 7.31 22.9 0.82 0.84 0.82 7.26 73.7 73.6 73.3 72.8 73.1 73.1 72.6 73.0 72.6 72.4 72.9 73.2 r/18.0 : r/17.9 r/18.3 ' r/18.1. r/18.3 ' r/18.2,f r/18.5£ r/l8.6<> r/18.3r/18.3" r/18.9<fj r/20.4" 72.7 r / 2 0 . 2 j r 1 Revised. p Preliminary Compiled by Federal Home Loan Bank Board in cooperation with Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Data are weighted averages based on probability sample survey of characteristics of conventional first mortgages, originated by major institutional lender groups, (including mortgage companies) for purchase of single family homes. Data exclude loans for refinancing, reconditioning, or modernization; construction loans to home-builders; and--in this exhibit—permanent loans which are coupled with construction loans to owner-builders. Data prior to 1965 on a comparable basis with the new series • are pending. Related series on conventional mortgage rates only, based on unweighted opinions of regional-office directors of the Federal Housing Administration, are available somewhat sooner than the results of the FHLBB-FDIC survey, and are included-in the case of new home mortgage rates--in Table 16. - 2 Fees and charges--expressed as a percentage of the principal mortgage amount—include loan commissions, fees, discounts, and other- charges which provide added income to the lender and are paid by the borrower. They exclude any closing costs related solely to transfer of property ownership. 3 Includes fees & charges amortized over a 10 year period in addition to the contract interest rate. CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGE TERMS Monthly Years 30 MATURITY NEW 25 EXISTING 20 80 LOAN/PRICE RATIO NEW EXISTING 70 1963 1965 1967 1969