Full text of H.16 Capital Market Developments : June 1, 1970
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DECONTROLLED AFTER SIX MONTHS L.5.8 Confidential (F.R.) 1970 CAPITAL MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Capital Markets Section, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D. C. INDEX 3-5 Developments in the Corporate and Municipal Bond Markets 6-7 Capital Market Yields 8-13 Capital Market Volume 14-17 Stock Market 18-33 Mortgage Market SYMBOLS: Estimate Preliminary Revised Not available 3 TABLE 1: Yields, Volume and Reception YIELDS MOODY'S — SEASONED NEW ISSUE 1 Aaa WEEK ENDING: 1970 - Apr. 3 10 17 24 May 1 8 15 22 28 June 5]/ 8;55 • 8.30 8; 65 8.75 7; 85 7.80 7.82 7.83 725 551 373 317 8.91 8.98 9.10 9.05 9.20 n.a. 7.92 7.99 8.09 8.16 8.24 195 345 610 284 225e 150e YIELDS BOND BUYER SEASONED 20 ' BOND INDEX WEEK ENDING: MOODY'S SEASONED 1970 - Apr. 3 10 17 24 5.90 6:10 6.25 6.47 6.11 6.33 6.50 6.73 1 8 15 22 28 5g/ 6.50 6.55. 6.7Q 6,74 6.80 n.a. 6.79 6.89 6.96 7.02 7.12 May June CORPORATE BOND MARKET VOLUME,2 PER CENT GROSS SOLD BY END BONDS SCHEDULED OFFERINGS OF WEEK WITHIN 28 DAYS 95 68 87 99 99 100 97 62 ' 96 n.a. MUNICIPAL BOND MARKET VOLUME2 PER CENT GROSS SOLD BY END OF WEEK OFFERINGS 264 42.9 473 . 398 685 444 448 733 2,717 2,636* 2,385* 1,044 819 n a -- BONDS SCHEDULED WITHIN 28 DAYS 63 88 78 73 1149 931 1047 649 196 113 77 68 530 624 319 250 249 lOOe 70 63 86 449 508 308 n.a. 1 Derived by adjusting to a Aaa basis, new issues of publicly-offered corporate bonds with .call protection, rated A, Aa, or Aaa by Moody's Investors Service (except serial and convertible issues, offerings of natural gas pipeline and foreign companies, and bonds guaranteed by the Federal Government.) 2 Millions of dollars unless otherwise indicated. Note: See footnotes to Table 3 * AT&T rights offerings included in May estimate. TABLE 2: Details on Inventories -CORPORATE BONDS IN SYNDICATE END OF LATEST WEEK DATE OFFERED AMOUNT (MIL. $) So. Nat. Gas Cleveland Elec. Ilium. Columbus & So. Ohio Elec. 60.0 75.0 30.0 5/27 5/26 5/14 ORIGINAL RATING AND YIELD CALL PROTECTION 9.88 .9.00 9.00 9.24 8.70 8.75 A 5 yrs Aaa 5 yrs. Aa 5 yrs 5/26 5/27 150.0 45.0 New York Tel. Ohio Edison INVENTORIES 1 MUNICIPALS BLUE LIST | IN SYNDICATE DATE 9.25 9.25 9.05 9.05 +20 +24 557 154 36 May 541 457 463 499 461 116 90 128 184 78 24 o 17 108 9 . \ 99% 90% 98% f : Aaa 5 yrs Aaa 5 yrs 45% 70% CORPORATES IN SYNDICATE 1970 - April 24. 1 8 15 22 ?9£/ ESTIMATED PROPORTION SOLD CORPORATE BONDS RELEASED FROM SYNDICATE DURING LATEST MEEK ORIGINAL INCREASE RATING AND ESTIMATED PROAMOUNT COUPON ISSUER IN YIELD CALL PROT. PORTION RELEASED YIELD DATE OFFERED I RELEXSED 5/20 5/21 COUPON ISSUER , N.C. - No call protection. 1 All figures in millions of dollars. Blue List is daily average for week ended Friday,except for latest week which is daily average of three days ended Wednesday. All other figures are as of Friday. BONDS IN SYNDICATE Friday figures Millions of dollars CORPORATE BONDS IN SYNDICATE 200 100 MUNICIPAL BONDS IN SYNDICATE 300 200 100 SEPT. DEC. MAR. JUN. SEPT. DEC. • \MAR. JUN. SEPT. DEC. V TABLE 3: High Grade Bond Yields' DATE NEW CORPORATE Aaa 1 MOODY'S SEASONED CORPORATE Aaa 2 U.S. GOVERNMENT 20-YEAR CONSTANT MATURITIES 3 BOND BUYER'S SEASONED MUNICIPALS 4 1968 - High Low 7.02 (12/13) 6.13 (8/30) 6.55 (1/27) 5.95 (9/13) 5.90 (1/20) 5.18 (8/9) 4.85 (1/26) 4.07 (8/8) 1969 - High Low 8.85 (12/5) 6.90 (2/21) 7.84 (12/26) 6.55 (1/3) 6.97 (12/26) 5.96 (1/24) 6.90 (12/18) 4.82 (1/28) 1970 - High Low 9.20 (5/29) 8.20 (2/27) 8. 21 (5/2 9) 7.79 (3/6) 7 . 55 (5/29) 6.60 (3/6) 7.02 (5/29) 5.95 (3/12) 8.91 8.98 9.10 9.05 9.20 7.92 7.99 8.09 8.16 8.21 7.08 7.15 7.12 7.17 7.55 6.79 6.89 6.96 7.02 7.12 1970 - May % 8 15 22 292/ 1 New corporate issues, with call protection, adjusted (as described in footnote 1 of Table 1) to a Aaa basis. 2 Weekly average of daily figures. Average term of bonds included is , 22-24 years. 3 Weekly average of daily figures. 4 Thursday figures, the average rating of the 20 bonds used in this index ' falls midway between the four top groups as classified by Moody's Investors Service. Note--Highs and lows are for individual series and may be on different dates for different series. HIGH GRADE BOND YIELDS NEW CORPORATE Aaa MOODY'S CORPORATE Aaa U S GOVT. 20-YR. CONSTANT MATURITIES BOND BUYER MUNICIPAL 1966 ,\ t i 1967 1968 1969 1970 TABLE 4: Long-term Corporate and State and Local Government Security Offerings and Placements (In millions of dollars) GROSS PROCEEDS CORPORATE PERIOD 1970 January February March April May • June 1969 STATE AND L O C A L 2 1 1968 1970 196 9 1,262 987 538 Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 1st half , Three quarters " Year 1,771 1,608 1,799 1,338 1,212 1,499 3,000e 4,100e 2,748 2,076 2,530 1,428 1,866 2,411 1,630 l,000e 2,478 1,427 2,427 2,143 1,432 1,557 1,097 808 559 1,469 L 1,699 I 1,444 : 1,933 2,375 2,532 2,129 1,767 2,054 1,280 886 816 2,230 r, 1,021 t 1,115 • 6,218 7,354 6,332 6,840 5,178 . 5,704 5,133 5,950 2,787 3,648 2,464 2,982 3,840 * 3,856 4,612 4,366 « 6,435 8,899 11,881 7,956 12,008 . 16,574 • - 7,83le 13,572 19,904 26,744 10,882 16,015 21,965 Excluding finance companies 3 lst/Quarter 2nd Quarter 3rd Quarter 4th Quarter Year 1 2 3 - 1,178 1,158 1,404 2,075 2,045 2,098 October November December 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 196: 2,601 1,830 3,400e j 6,170 7.037 4,049 1,318 1,143 1,395 ; . 1,801 1,110 737 • July August "September . 5,107 5,427 4,785 5,654 20,973 Securities and Exchange Commission estimates of gross proceeds. Investment Bankers Association of America estimates of principal amounts. Total gross proceeds excluding offerings of sales and consumer finance 'companies. - Note: AT&T rights offering included in May estimate. • -1 , i r TABLE 5: New Corporate Security Issues, Type of Issue and Issuer (In millions of dollars) GROSS PROCEEDS BY TYPE OF ISSUE COMMON AND BONDS MEMO: PUBLICLY PRIVATELY PFD. ISSUES INCLUDED MFG. PLACED STOCK OFFERED FOREIGN | CONVERTIBLE QUARTER OR MONTH TOTAL 1969 - I II III IV 1970 - I e/ 6,218 7,354 6,332 6,840 8,230 x 2,657 3,411 3,186 3,479 4,968 1969 - May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1970 - Jan. Feb. Mar.e/ Apr.e/ 2,076 2,530 2,478 1,426 2,427 1,933 2,375 2,532 2,601 1,830 3,400 3,000 871 1,272 1,279 685 1,222 969 1,164 1,346 1,594 1,068 1,900 2,000 1 1,540 1,673 1,347 1,053 1,092 5101 514 609 259 479 313 226 514 485 292 400 400 GROSS PROCEEDS BY TYPE OF ISSUER PUBLIC UTILITY OTHER ISSUERS1 2,023 2,268 1,797 2,307 2,170 215 227 289 115 n.a. 1,355 1,126 750 809 929 1,407 1,773 1,862 1,314 2,671 1,346 1,878 1,544 1,967 2,320 473 432 684 598 511 2,993 3,266 2,243 2,961 2,729 694 744 589 482 726 651 984 672 522 470 1,100 600 28 137 132 122 35 59 8 48 60 33 n.a. n.a. 463 233 214 167 369 105 303 401 387 249 250 330 569 691 875 362 625 260 453 601 787 371 1,500 800 392 .702 493 507 544 745 622 600 639 540 820 960 197 191 286 126 272 120 201 277 229 226 260 25 915 946 826 433 984 808 1,099 1,054 947 694 820 1,215 Other issuers are extractive, railroad and other transportation, real estate , and finance, and commercial and other. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. Quarterly supplements are available. -v COMMUNICATIONS TABLE 6: Large Long-term Public Security Issues for- New Capital (Other than U.S. Treasury) V / ISSUER TYPE 'l AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) MATURITY May 1-May 28, 1970 COUPON / , RAT!! OR • OFFER- MOOHY'. RAT 1 N(, KK. I.;THRIN6 Y1 ELD I ST COST Corporate Philadelphia Elec. Co. Boise Cascade Credit Corp. Carolina Pwr & Light Hartford Elec Light Co. Aluminum Co. of America Southern Union Gas Co. Jewel Cos. General Acceptance Corp. Columbus & Southern Ohio Co. National Cash Register Burroughs Corp. Monongahela Power Co. Southern Counties Gas Co. American Brands Bethlehem Steel Corp. Ohio Edison Co New York Telephone Co. Northern States Power Co. ^Philadelphia Elec. Co. *AT8iT Southern Natural Gas Dallas, Power & Lig*fit Co. Cleveland Elec. Illumin.Co. Dayton Power & Light Co. 1st Mtg. 40.0 Debs. 75.0 Pref. stk. 30.0 1st mtg. 20.0 S.F. debs. 150.0 S.F. debs. 15.0 Com stk. 24.7 Debs. 50.0 Bonds 30.0 Debs. , 150.0 Bonds 75.0 1st mtg. 15.0 1st mtg. 32.0 Notes 100.0 Debs. 150.0 1st Mtg. 45.0 Ref. Mtg 150.0 1st Mtg. 45.0 1st Reft Mtg. 30.0 Debs w/w 1569.0 Debs 60.0 1st Mtg. 30.0 1st Mtg. 75.0 1st Mtg. 35.0 1976 \ 1975 8.50 10.00 8.50 10.00 Aaa Bbb 2000 1995 1990 9.25 9.00 9.75 9.20 9.10 9.75 Aa A A 1990 2000 1995 1975 2000 1995 1975 2000 2000 2010 1974 1976 2000 1976 2000 1975 , 2000 10.25 9.00 6.00 9.00 9.75 9.50 8.88 9.00 9.25 9.25 8.88 8.50 8.75 9.88 9.38 9.00 - 9.50 10.25 8.75 6.00 9.00 9.60 9.50 9.00 9.00 9.05 9.05 8.88 8.50 8.75 9.24 9.20 8.70 9.35 Bbb Aa Baa A A Aa Aa Aa Aaa Aaa A Aaa Aaa A Aaa Aaa Aa TABLE 6: Large Long-term Public Security Issues for New Capital (continued) (Other than U.S. Treasury)1 ISSUER TYPE AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) MATURITY May 1-May 28. 1970 COUPON RATE OR OFFER- MOODY'S NET INTERING RATING EST COST YIELD State & local Government Kansas City, Kansas Rev. Louisiana Stadium and Exposition District Rev. Fulton Co. Ga. Sch«Dist« G.O. Oakland Co, Mich. Bond Metro. Wtr. Dist. of Southern California G . Om Detroit, Michigan Rev. Miami Beach, Florida Rev. Mississippi G.O. Delaware, State of G.O. Connecticut, State of G.O. Monroe Co. Com. Sch. Corp. Bldg., Corp. Indiana 1st Mtg. Rev. Austin, Texas Rev. & G ,0. Massachusetts, State of G.O. Puerto Rico Wtr Res. Auth. Rev. G.O. Wisconsin, State of Rev. University of Texas 22.0 1971-90 16.5 12.0 20.9 Not reoffered 1971-91 6.00 1971-95' 6.71 4.60-7.00 1971-99 7.55-7.57 5.00-7.80 R.R. A-l A-l 1980 16.96 1973 -200$ 6,78 1971-95 59 1980 53 1971-90 37 1971-90 6.38 5.40-7.00 5.50-7.75 5.50-7.70 4.90-7.00 4.60-7.10 4.60-6.80 Aa Aa Baa Aa Aa Aaa 1971-90 7.23 1972-95 6,56&6.60 1971-2012 B. 53 1972-2000 7.50 1971-2001(5.6967 18 19 71-2000V.41 5.40 4.50-7.20 4.80-7.00 5.25-7.50 i5.00-7.20 14,90-7.60 A Aa Aa A Aa 100.0 24.0 12.0 20.9 20.0 . 75.0 10.5 11.3 47.4 50.0 69.0 10.0 6.71 4.75-7.10 N.A. TABLE 6: Large Long-term Public Security Issues for New Capital (contimu d) (Other than U.S. Treasury) 1 M a y 1-May 28, 1970 ISSUER - TYPE 2 AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) MATURITY COUPON |;« RATE OR URFERNET INTERi;.( EST COST J YIELD , Other Federal Home Loan Bank FNMA (GNMA guaranteed) * 1 2 1 3 MOODY'S RATING Bonds Bonds 200.0 250.0 1972 1975 8.15 8.38 8.15 8.38 Bights offering. Includes corporate and other security offerings of $15 million and over; State and local security offerings of $10 million and over. In case of State and local government securities, G.O. denotes g e m raI obligation; Rev.-Ut., revenue obligations secured only by income from public utilities; Rev.-Q,-Ut., revenue bonds secured only by income from "quasi-utilities; Rev.-S.T., revenue bonds secured by revenue from Specific taxes only; Rev.-Rent., revenue bonds secured solely by lease payments. Includes foreign government and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development issues and non-quaranteed issues by Federal Agencies. TABLE 7: Forthcoming Large Long-term Public Security Offerings for New Capital (Other than U.S. Treasury)1 (continued) ISSUER TYPE AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) APPROXIMATE DATE .OF OFFERING Corporate Ramada Inns Debs Central Hudson Gas & Elec. Co, 1st Mtg. General Telephone of Calif.___ Debs Lone Star Gas Co. Debs Western Massachusetts Elec. • Company 1st Mtg. Raybestas-Manhattan, Inc. Debs. Kansas City Pwr. & Light Co. 1st Mtg* Appalachian Pwr Co. Bonds New Jersey Bell Telephone Co. Debs West Penn, Pwr Bonds Consumer Pwr Co. Com. stk. R.C.A. S.F. debs Kansas-Nebraska Natural Gas Company Debs Consumer Pwr Co. 1st Mtg Washington Natural Gas Co Bonds Boston Edison 1st Mtg Lousivilie Gas & Elec Co. 1st Mtg . Carolina Pwr & Light Co. Bonds Baltimore Gas & Elec. Co. Bonds Washington Gas Light Co. 1st Mtg Avco Corp Conv debs Chas6 Manhattan Mtg Trust Benf. Int. Chase Manhattan Mtg. Trust Debs *ITT S.F. debs Florida Pwr & Light Co. 1st Mtg Scott Paper Co. S.F. debs American Airline Bonds Brooklyn Union Gas 1st Mtg. Monogram Industries Notes Gamble-Skogmo., Inc. Cap. notes *Detroit Edison Gen & ref mtg *Detroit Edison Com. stk.' Pacific Pwr. & Light 1st mtg 25.0 25.0 70.0 30.0 . 30.0 25.0 35.0 70.0 100.0 25.0 40.0 75.0 15.0 60.0 15.0 60.0 20.0 50.0 40-45.0 20.0 50.0 60.0 40.0 40.0 60.0 100.0 . 78.5 30.0 25.0 20.0 75.0 58.0 25.0 June June 'June June 1 1 2 3 June 3 June 3 June 4 June 5 June 8 June 9 June- 10 June 16 June 16 June 17 June 17 June 22 June 23 June 24 June 25 June 29 June June June June June June June June June June July 1 July 1 July 14 TABLE 7: Forthcoming Large Long-term Public Security Offerings for New Capital (Other than U.S. Treasury)1 1 AMOUNT (MILLIONS APPROXIMATE DATE ISSUER TYPE OF OFFERING OF DOLLARS) State and Local Alabama, State of •Winchester, Mass *Delaware State Highway Dept Jefferson Parish, La. *Utica Community Sch Dist, Mich. Minneapolis -St. Paul, Minn. Metro Area *Houston, Texas tndp. Sch Dist Alaska, State of Richmond, .Va. Delaware River Port Auth, N.J. Prince Georges County, Md. Massachusetts Bay Transp. Auth System Genesee Co., Michigan Los Angeles, Calif Parking Auth Tulsa, Okla Maryland, State of Detroit, Mich San Francisco BARTS . G.O. G.O. Rev G.O. G.O. 15.0 12.0 17.0 15.7 15.5 June June June June June 9 9 10 11 15 G.O. G.O. G.O, G.O. Rev G.O. 42.0 10.0 12.9 27.0 75.0 35.0 June June June June June June 15 16 17 17 17 18 Rev Rev Rev G.O. G.O. Rev Rev 65.0 11.2 25.0 23.5 46.8 46.0 50.0 June June June July July July July 24 , . 6 1 1 7 13 Other Bonds TVA * l 100.0 June 16 Included .in table for first time. Includes corporate and other issues of $15 million and over; State and local Government issues of $10 million and over. 2 Includes foreign government and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development issues and non-guaranteed issues of. Federal Agencies. Postponenments; Texas Eastern Transmission Corp.—50.0 - Market Conditions Mapco Inc.—23.0 - postponed indefinitely Johnson Co. Kan—12.9 Rejected bids State of New York—60.0 -Market Condition Penn Co.100.0 - — M a r k e t Condition TABLE 8: Stock Prices and Volume TRADING1 VOLUME 2 STOCK PRICES1 - S&P DATE. 500 3 AMEX 4 D.J. - IND. • AMEX NYSE 1968 - High , Low 108.37(11/29) 985.21(12/3) 33.25(12/20) 87. 72.(3/5) 825.13(3/21) 21.97(3/25- 82.1(6/7) 34.0(2/23) 45.4(6/7) 14.1(2/23) 1969 - High Low 106.16(5/14) 89.20(7/17) 968.85(5/14) 32.91(1/3) 769.93(12/17)25.02(7/29 82.6(10/17) 32.8(4/4) 38.4(5/9) 12.9(4/4) 1970 - High Low 93.46(1/5) 69.29(5/2 6) 811.31(1/5) 27.02(1/8) 631.16(5/26) 19,36(5/27) 80.7(2/6) 44.6(3/20) 28.4(1/2) 12.1(4/24) 1970 - Apr. 17 24 85.67 82.77 775.94 747.28 23.35 22.40 50.3 50.0 14.4 12.1 81.44 79.44 76.90 72.25 76.55 717.73 702.22 662.17 700.44 21.99 21.69 21.11 20.06 20.71 56.8 52.9 56.7 59.7 80.7 20.3 17.0 16.1 18.6 27.3 May - 1 8 15 22 29 733.63 . 1 Figures other than highs and lows are Fridays only. for the year and are not necessarily for Fridays. 2 1941-43 =-10. 3 Average dollar value of shares listed. 4 NYSE is the New York Stock Exchange; AMEX is the American Stock Exchange.Total number of shares traded per week (millions of shares). Trading is normally conducted for 5-1/2 hours per day and 5 days per week, or 27-1/2 hours per week. In recent years, however, abbreviated trading to the extent, and over the time periods, shown below: Hours/ Days/ Hours/ From; Through; Day Week Week August 8, 1967 January 22, 1968 June 30, 1968 January 3, 1969 July 7, 1969 January 2, 1970 August 20, 1957 March 1, 1968 December 31, 1968 July 3, 1969 December 31, 1969 May 1, 1970 4 4 5-1/2 4 4-1/2 5 Highs and lows are 5 5 4 5 5 5 20 20 22 20 22-1/2 25 15 f STOCK PRICES AND TRADING VOLUME AM EX (Ind.) Weekly II II I II II I l (500) I I II II II I I I 1280 128 STOCK PRICES AMEX PRICE LEVEL INDEX 1200 120 1120 112 1040 104 960 96 880 88 800 80 Millions of shares AMEX TRADING VOLUME (TOTAL FOR WEEK) NYSE TRADING VOLUME (TOTAL FOR WEEK) 1966 1968 1967 I 1969 1970 TABLE 9: Security Credit END OF PERIOE 5,570 5,670 5,340 5,170 5,000 4,940 5,040 5,070 4,970 2,760 2,770 2,740 2,700 2,670 2,620 2,570 2,520 2,580 8,330 8,440 . 8,080 7,870 7,670 7,560 7,610 7,590 7,550 8,044 8,474 8,214 7,515 7,019 7,039 7,243 7,111 7,445 1970 - Jan. Feb.r/ Mar.r/ Apr.j)/ Change in Outstanding: 4,680 4,570 4,520 4,380 2,430 2,370 2,370 2,330 7,110 6,940 6,890 6,710 6,683 6,562 6,353 5,970 -20 100 -330 -170 -170 -60 100 30 -100 -20 10 -30 -40 -30 -50 -50 -50 60 -40 110 -360 -210 -200 -110 50 -20 -40 -274 430 -260 -699 -496 20 204 -132 334 -271 7 1 -302 -206 2 174 -140 190 : -290 -110 -50 -140 -150 -40 -440 -170 -50 -180 -762 -121 -209 -383 -177 -163 -22 -195 - Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1970 - Jan. Feb.r/ Mar.r/ Apr.])/ 2 3 NET CREDIT CUSTOMERS' NET EXTENDED BY FREE CREDIT BROKERS AND DEALERS 3 BALANCES CUSTOMERS' NET DEBIT BALANCES 1969 - Apr. May June July Aug. . Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1969 1 CREDIT EXTENDED TO MARGIN CUSTOMERS BY: BROKERS 1 | .BANKS 2 | TOTAL -- -40 £ ! 3,077 3,084 3,085 2,783 2,577 2,579 2,753 : 2,613 2,803 4,967 5,390 5,129 4,732 4,442 4,460 4,490 4,498 4,642 2,626 2,463 2,441 2,246 4,057 4,099 3,912 3,724 - -57 423 -261 -397 -290 18 30 8 144 -585 42 -187 -188 Margin debt, as reported by the New York Stock Exchange. Although margin debt until March 1968 included loans secured by U.S. governments, the amount of such loans included is thought to have been small. "Bank loans to others than brokers and dealers for purchasing or carrying securities other than U.S. governments The difference between customers' net debit balances and customers'net free credit balances, this figure represents the net credit extended by brokers and dealers to the nonfinancial public. NOTE: With the exception of bank loan data, figures are supplied by the New York Stock Exchange and are end of month data. Bank loans are for weekly reporting large commercial banks. Broker data includes loans for regulated securities; bank data includes loans for the purpose of purchasing or carrying any security, whether regulated or not. TABLE 10: Savings Flows at Nonbank Depositary Intermediaries ($ millions) DATE TOTAL DEPOSITS ANNUAL NET GROWTH RATE 1 FLOW 2,376 1,143 -747 Not Seasonally Adjusted 10,649 9.4 6,129 7,399 6.0 2,738 4,020 3.1 -1,003 15,731 11,607 6,371 9.3 7.1 4.0 331 642 -197 1969 - Feb. Mar. Apr. 1969 - Nov. Dec. SAVINGS & LOAN ASSOCIATIONS NET SHARE CAPITAL ANNUAL NEW . NET GROWTH MONEY 2 1 FLOW RATE 5,082 4,208 2,551 1967 1968 1969 1970 - Feb. Mar. Apr. MUTUAL SAVINGS BANKS NET REGULAR DEPOSITS 3 NEW ANNUAL MONEY 2 GROWTH NET 1 RATE FLOW Z £ 246 510 -6 -- 272 229 4.9 4.1 264 81 -325 605 1,370 -516 569 479 -543 936 2,012 -713 150 -88 -136 205 1,655 234 177 554 253 451 2,165 228 " -- Seasonally Adjusted 265 2.4 47 0.4 -1' ' 537 276 9.4 6.3 \ 3 ' 4 NET NEW MONEY 2 8,505 3,882 -1,749 833 560 868 - 3.2 1.3 -2.1 -6.7 -754 -871 -5.2 1970 - Jan. -117 5.4 247 ' 2.2 545 3.3 298 Feb. — 1,021 Mar. 8'. 9 1,000 Apr. P/ 1 Annual growth rate for monthly data is the annualized monthly percentage increase in deposits. 2 Net New Money is new deposits net of both withdrawals and interest. Data for S&Ls are for insured associations only, which represent 96% of industry total resources. 3 Regular deposits at mutual savings banks exclude items such as Christmas club and certain escrow accounts, jwhich represent a very small part of total deposits. „ SOURCES; National Association of Mutual Savings Banks and Federal Home Loan Bank Board. §8 i:5S3 1:1 327 466 117 -- • 19 SAVINGS FLOWS (seasonally adjusted) M i l l i o n s of d o l l a r s Monthly 2000 l\ T- — f TOTAL J - 1200 800 • -\ IS 1 - 400 1 1 h I I I I I I I 1M I I I I II I I I II SAVINGS & LOANS 800 MUTUAL SAVINGS BANKS 1966 ' 1600 1967 1968 1969 1970 TABLE 11: Mortgage Commitments at.Selected Thrift Institutions DATE ' 1969 - Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1970 - Jan. Feb. Mar. 1 TOTAL 10.3 10.5 10.4 10.2 9.9 9.5 9.2 8.9 8.6 8.4 8.2 7.9 7.9 1 OUTSTANDING COMMITMENTS | NET CHANGE ALL ALL MUTUAL SAVINGS SAVINGS & . SAVINGS & TOTAL BANKS LOAN LOAN • (N.Y. STATE) ASSOCIATIONS ASSOCIATIONS (Billions of Dollars, S easonally Adjusted) \f . 7.0 7.2 7.1 7.0 6.8 6.5 6.4 6.1 5.9 5.8 5.6 5.4 • 5.2 6 MUTUAL SAVINGS BANKS (N.Y. STATE) 3.3 3.3 3.2 3.2 3.1 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.7 .2.6 .18 .15 -.11 -.18 -.32 -.36 -.31 -.33 -.24 -.25 .12 . 14 -.06 -.11 -.22 -.24 -.18 -.23 -. 18 -.12; .06 .02 -.05 -.06 -.10 -.12 -.13 -.09 -.06 -.13 2.6 2.5 2.5 -.17 -.31 -.22 -.23 -.17 .04 -.07 -.02 Based on data from Federal Home Loan Bank Board and Savings•Banks Associations of New York State, Data for savings banks and S&L's include a minor amount of nonresidential commitments. S&L commitments include loans in process. Net changes are derived directly from unrounded outstandings levels as reported and after seasonal adjustment by Federal Reserve. Subtotals may not add to totals because of rounding. MORTGAGE COMMITMENTS OUTSTANDING (seasonally adjusted) Monthly Billions of dollars TOTAL S&L'S N Y. MSB'S Includes building loans beginning August 1 9 6 7 1960 1962 1964 1966 1968 1970 TABLE 12: Net Change in Mortgage Holdings 1 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MUTUAL SAVINGS & SAVINGS . LOAN COMMERCIAL ASSOC. BANKS BANKS LIFE INSURANCE COMPANIES MIMA-CMMA 3,761 7,520 9,350 9,407 4,648 2,914 2,496 2,056 2,323 1,797 2,508 4,375 293 228 198 622 671 917 134 150 125 201 221 205' .38 106 153 136 223 317 213 187 604 533 529 „ 884 875 899 854 1,022 859 720 654 627 547 576 207 159 194 169. 183 173 193 191 171 139 134 177 193 207 224 278 334 530 511 568 583 614 400 436 276 225 241 TOTAL INCLUDING FNMA-CNMA TOTAL 18,197 19,988 23,827 23,485 15,874 18,191 21,319 19,110 4,705 4,639 6,677 5,152 2,760 3,118 2,796 2,495 1969 - Jan. Feb. Mar," 1,701 1,750 1,964 1,500 1,529 1,759 451 480 519 1970 - Jau.Feb. 1,091 1,149 ' 487 616 n.a. ^100 100 0 1969 - Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. , Nov. Dec. 2,202 2,099 2,117 2,032 2,153 1,698 1,910 1,876 1,734 1,652 1,906 2,025 1,906 1,910 1,808 1,875 1,364 1,380 1,365 1,166 1,069 1,292 668 632 567 534 440 151 : 310 383 244 237 347 266 230 240 251 230 181 157 137 124 146 235 1970 - Jan. Feb. Mar. 1,493 1,604 937 1,105 n.a 288 285 • 114 24 143 197 DATE Not Seasonally Adjusted 1966 1967 1968 1969 Mar. Seasonally Ad lusted 1 7 556 499 516 Monthly data for commercial banks based on Federal Reserve estimates benchmarked to Call Report data on real estate loans outstanding as available. Other data derived from mortgage debt outstanding as reported separately by National Assn. of Mutual Savings Banks, Federal Home "Loan Bank Board, Institute of Life Insurance and, through August 1968, the Federal National Mortgage Association, and thereafter by FNMA and the Government National Mortgage Association. Data for mutual savings banks and for Life Insurance companies may differ•somewhat from those derived from regular quarterly series because of minor conceptual differences for which adjustments are not made in the monthly series. Altogether, these groups accounted for 87 per cent of the net increase estimated for all holders in 1967. NET CHANGE IN MORTGAGE HOLDINGS (seasonally adjusted) Monthly Billions of dollars 3.0 TOTAL, INCL. FNMA - GNMA FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS 1.5 1.0 1967 1968 1969 1970 TABLE 13: Net Increases in Mortgage Debt Outstanding Billions of dollars, SAAR QUARTER 1969 1- to 4FAMILY MULTIFAMILY COMMERCIAL MULTI-AND COMMERCIAL FARM 28.5 24.3 18.7 15.2 19.2 15.6 11.0 9.2 14.8 12.1 8.4 7.0 4.4 3.6 2.6 2.1 6.9 6.5 5.5 4.2 11.6 10.1 8.2 6.2 2.4 2.2 2.2 1.8 - - if/ up IIIl> IVp 15.6 20.5 27.0 27.5 10.0 13.8 19.6 19.9 6.8 10.5 15.7 16.0 3.2 3.4 3.9 3.9 3.8 4.9 4.9 4.9 7.2 8.2 8.7 8.8 1.8 1.8 2.5 2.7 18.4 18.0 18.2 20.5 15.4 14.8 14.6 16.5 3.0 3.2 3.5 4.0 6.3 5.7 6.5 7.8 9.4 8.9 10.1 11.7 2.3 2.2 1.8 22.1 21.2 19.8 16.9 17.9 16.5 15.1 13.0 4.2 4.7 4.6 3.9 6.1 10.3 9.6 9.1 9.0 2.2 2.3 . 1968 RESIDENTIAL - l£/ ii in 1966 1967 TOTAL iv - If/ 27.1 25.9 Hp III] > 26. 5 IVp 30.1 If/ HP Hit IVp 30.4 28.5 26.4 24.0 5.0 4.6 5.1 1.8 2.0 1.9 Derived from data on mortgage debt outstanding from Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Institute of Life Insurance, National Association of Mutual Savings Banks, Departments of Commerce and Agriculture, Federal National Mortgage Association, Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Administration and. Comptroller of the Currency. Separation of non-farm mortgage debt by type of property, where not available* and interpolations and extrapolations, where required, estimated by Federal Home Loan Bank Board and the Federal Reserve. Residential mortgage debt includes nonfarm only and is sum of 1-to 4-family and multifamily mortgage debt combined. NET INCREASES IN MORTGAGE DEBT OUTSTANDING Quarterly Billions of dollars, seasonally adjusted annual rate TOTAL TOTAL RESIDENTIAL , 1-4 FAMILY COMMERCIAL MULTIFAMILY 1966 1968 1970 T A B L E 14: F N M A "Auction" Results WEEK . ENDED: COMMITMENTS IN $ MILLIONS ACCEPTED TOTAL TOTAL 901 -YEARH 6OFFERED MONTH & OVER DAY IMPLICIT Y I E L D 2 ( p e r cent) 90DAY 6MONTH 1-YEAR & OVER 1 Jan. 26 581.4 297.8 37.7 187.3 72.8 9.37 9.29 9.26 Feb. 9 24 497.0 438.1 295.3 279.9 41.2 52.7 188.0 150.4 66.1 76.8 9.23 9.20 9.28 9.25 9.15 9.13 Mar. 9 23 354.6 395.4 276.4 239.0 60.7 47.5 136.!5 124.5 79.2 67.0 9.16 9.12 9.19 9.14 9.13 9.12 Apr. 6 20 268.4 315.7 190.2 185.2 41.0 54.0 121.-4 98.: 27.8 33.1 9.05 9.02 9.07 9.04 9.10 9.10 May 5 11 18 25 443.3 269.2 300.3 289.5 121. 1 63.:2 86.'4 - 86. 7 38.9 13.0 17.5 19.7 9.01 9.04 9.11 9.15 9.04 9.07 9.13 9.18 9.18 9.22 1 195.5 43.5. 26.0 102.2 136.3 32.4 145.2 o/38.9 (150.0)- 1 . 9.10 9.13 Note: Under the FNMA auction system, approved sellers of Governmentunderwritten mortgages bid for FNMA forward purchase commitments, subject to an over-all dollar limit announced by FNMA in advance. Bids accepted by FNMA are for delivery at the seller's option, and at any time within the specified period. Bids on proposed homes relate to construction not yet started on which mortgages may be delivered only after completion and occupancy„ 1. For "proposed construction" of new homes only.. 2 Average secondary market yield after allowance for commitment fee and required purchase and holding of FNMA stock, assuming prepayment of 15 years for 30-year Government-underwritten mortgages. Yields shown are gross, before deduction of 50 basis points fee paid by investors to servicers. 3 FNMA announced limit of accepted bids for next week's auction. FNMA "AUCTION" RESULTS $ Millions ~ AMOUNT OF ACCEPTED BIDS BY COMMITMENT PERIOD 200 6 MONTHS 100 1 YEAR AND OVER | 3 MONTHS IMPLICIT YIELD 6 - M O N T H COMMITMENTS 10 $ Millions 800 600 TOTAL BIDS RECEIVED 400 200 | | JUNE | TOTAL BIDS ACCEPTED AUG. OCT. 1969 DEC. FEB. APR. JUNE 1970 AUG. OCT. DEC. TABLE 15: Private Housing Starts and Permits STARTS DATE SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE TOTAL 1-FAMILY 2 OR MORE TOTAL UNADJUSTED TYPE OF FINANCING FHA | VA I OTHER Dec. 1,505 1,533 1,507 1,429 1,376 1,481 1,390 1,280 1,402 797 877 826 803 752 828 766 762 776 708 656 681 626 624 653 624 518 626 159.0 155.5 147.3 125.2 124.9 129.3 123.4 94.6 84.1 23.0 21.1 21.5 20.8 22.4 18.3 25.1 18.8 23.2 4.4 4.3 4.6 4.7 4.2 4.8 5.0 3.9 4.2 131.6 130.1 121.2 99.7 98.3 106.2 93.3 74.7 57.9 1970 - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. 1,059 1,306 1,384 1,181 577 725 702 693 482 581 682 488 66.4 74.3 113.9 123.8 16.5 17.5 25.2 32.4 3.4 3.9 4.8 5.4 46.5 52.9 83.9 1969 - Ap r . May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. 86.0 BUILDING PERMITS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE) 2 1,502 1,323 1,340 1,228 1,245 1,201 1,183 1,191 1,239 1,0131,137 1,099 1,249 Total starts are Census estimates including farm for both permit-issuing and non-issuing areas. A dwelling unit is started when excavation begins; all units in an apartment structure are considered started at that time. FHA and VA starts are units started under commitments by these agencies to insure or guarantee the mortgages. As reported by FHA and VA, a unit is started when a field office receives the first compliance .inspection report, which is made before footings are poured in some cases but normally after the foundations have been completed. Other starts are derived as a residual, although total and FHA and VA starts are not strictly comparable in concept or timing; other starts include both units financed by conventional mortgages and units without mortgages. Building permits before January 1963 are Census estimates for about 10,000 areas identified as having a local building permit system in 1959. Estimates beginning^ January 1963 are for approximately 12,000 and beginning January 1967 13,000, or all known permit-issuing places. Unlike starts, seasonally adjusted building permits reflect direct adjustment for differences in the number of working days per month, as well as other differences in timing and coverage. 29 PRIVATE HOUSING STARTS AND PERMITS Monthly, annual rates Millions of units SEASONALLY ADJUSTED 2.0 HOUSING STARTS 1.6 12 BUILDING PERMITS (in issuing areas) PER CENT OF UNADJUSTED TOTAL STARTS MULTI-FAMILY 40 GOVERNMENT UNDERWRITTEN 1964 1966 1968 1970 TABLE 16: Mortgage and Bond Yields FHA MORTGAGES 2 . DATE . 25-YEAR 30-YEAR CONVENSPREAD BETIONAL TWEEN YIELDS MORTON C0NV. & GAGES ; FHA MORT3 GAGES 1 NEW Aaa CORPORATE BONDS 4 SPREAD BETWEEN YIELDS ON NEW CORPORATE BONDS AND FHA MORTGAGES 1959-60 - High 1961-66 - Low 1966 - High 1967 - High Low 1968 - High Low 1969 - High. Low 6.26 5.43 6.73 n. a. n. a. n. a. n. a. n. a. n. a. n. a. 5.44 6.81 6.81 6.29 7.52 6.78 8.62 7.99 6.30 5.80 6.70 6.70 6.40 7.40 6.75 8.35 7.55 .23 .25 .30 .11 -.12 .12 -.27 .40 .13 5125 4.41 5.82 1.69 .77 1.16 6.51 5.18 6.79 6.15 8.75 6.91 1.28 .27 1.20 .26 1.08 -.13 1969 - Dec. n. a. 8,62 8.35 -.27 8.75 -.13 1 9 7 0 - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. n. a. n. a. n. a. n. a. 1 2 3 4 8.55 8.46 9.29 8.55 -.74 8.30 .99 9.20 8.55 -.65 8.60 .60 9.10 8.55 -.55 8.60 .50 Neither mortgage nor bond yields include allowance for servicing costs which are much higher for mortgages than for bonds. Generally, bonds pay interest semiannually; mortgages, monthly. Mortgage yields, if computed as equivalent to a semi-annual interest investment, would be slightly higher than given in the table. * Based on FHA-field-office opinions about average bid prices in the private secondary market for new-home mortgages for immediate delivery. Separate data available for 25-year a n d — b e g i n n i n g July 1961--30-year mortgages with minimum downpayments, weighted by probable volume of transactions. Yields , computed by FHA, assuming.prepayment period of^l'2 years for 25-year mortgages and 15 years for 30-year mortgages. Over the!period for which they can be compared, the movement of the two mortgage yield series has been similar. Dashed lines indicate periods of adjustment to changes in contractual interest rates. . Based on FHA-field-office opinion on typical interest rates (rounded) on conventional first mortgages prevailing in the market areas of insuring officecities. Beginning with April 1960, rate relates only to new-home mortgages; prior to that date, rate related to both new as well as existing-home mortgages. Dashed line indicates this change in the series. See note for Table 1. MORTGAGE AND BOND YIELDS Monthly 12 11 10 \ 9 8 __ 7 HOME MORTGAGES: 6 CONVENTIONAL 5 Aaa CORPORATE BONDS: NEW ISSUES 4 _L_ J L _J _1L E L D S P R E A D ( F H A MORTGAGE VS. NEW ISSUE Aaa CORPORATE BONDS) 200 A'Ka J _J_ 1962 1 1964 1966 I 111111111111111 H m HI I 1968 1970 100 + 0 100 TABLE 17: Conventional Mortgage Terms DATE NEW HOMES CON- FEES & TRACT CHARGES EFFEC- MATURITY RATE (PER (YEARS) TIVE (PER CENT) RATE CENT) 2 3 1 "i LOAN/ PRICE LOAN RATIO AMT. (PER ($000) CENT) 4 EXISTING HOMES CON- FEES & LOAN/ CHARGES EFFECTRACT MATU- PRICE (PER RATE TIVE RITY RATIO (PER CENT) RATE (YEARS) (PER CENT) CENT) 2 3 LOAN J AMT; ($000) ; 4 1 19 .9 19 .7 20 .1 20,.1 19..8 19..2 19..5 20. 1 20. 8 'j 1969 Apr. May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 7.47 7.50 7.62 7.76 7.86 7.89 7.98 7.97 8.07 0.96 0.88 0.84 0.92 0.86 0.92 0.89 0.96 1.06 7 .62 7 .65 7,.76 7,.91 8..00 8.,05 8.,13 8.,13 8. 25 25.4 25.8 25.6 25.5 25.2 25.3 25.3 25.3 25.4 72.6 73.2 73.0 72.0 72.3 72.4 72.9 72.8 71.9 24.8 25.0 24.9 24.5 24.3 24.7 25.0 24.6 25.0 7.46 7.54 7.64 7.79 7.90 7.92 7.98 8.00 8.08 0.85 0.83 0.86 0.91 0.93 0.92 0.91 0.90 0.93 7.60 7.68 7.79 7.94 8.05 8.08 8.13 8.15 8.24 23 .0 22,.7 22,.8 22..8 22.,6 22.,2 22. 2 22. 6 22.9 71.8 71.9 71.4 71.7 71.2 70.7 70.2 70.4 70.6 1970 Jan. Feb. Mar.r/ Apr. 8.16 8.23 8.29 8.23 1.08 1.09 1,11 1.02 8..34 8,.41 8.,47 8. 40 25.0 25.2 69.3 71.8 25. L 24.9 8.13 8.23 8.26 8.20 0.94 1.02 8.29 8.41 22. 4 22. 4 70.3 70.2 1 25.0 24.8 71,1 71.1 25.1 24.5 •'.'98 0.90 8.43 8.35 22. 6 22. 8 70.4 70.4 r 20. 5^ t 20.4 C 20. 6 20. 4 Compiled by.Federal Home Loan Bank Board in cooperation with Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Data are weighted averages based on probability sample survey of characteristics of conventional first mortgages originated by major institutional lender . groups (including mortgage companies) for purchase of single family homes. Data exclude^ loans for refinancing, reconditioning or modernization; construction loans to home-builders; and permanent loans which are coupled with construction loans to ownerbuilders. Related series on conventional mortgage rates only, based on. unweighted opinions of field-office directors of the Federal Housing Administration, are available somewhat sooner than the results of the FHLBB-FDIC survey, and are included-in the case of new home mortgage rates--in Table 16. 2 Fees and charges--expressed as a percentage of the principal mortgage amount--include loan commissions, fees, discounts, and other charges which provide added income to the lender and are paid l>y the borrower. They exclude any closing costs related solely to transfer of property ownership. 3 Includes fees & charges amortized over a 10 year period in addition to the contract interest rate. . 4 ' Derived by FRB. ; - •/,' i f CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGE TERMS Monthlyo MATURITY NEW 25 EXISTING 20 15i r i i i i i i i i i i i i m i rl i i i i 80 LOAN/PRICE RATIO NEW 75 EXISTING 70 r L _ _ i • i- 65 11111111ii111111111 ii I M 11 n Thousands of doll LOAN AMOUNT - 30 NEW -—-nzzz—Z EXISTING 10 1 1 1964 1 1966 1 1968 I n n IIIiiii1iiii M I I M 1970 * CHANGE IN SERIES