Full text of H.16 Capital Market Developments : July 31, 1972
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Cdmo iA fi L DECONTROLLED AFTER SIX MONTHS L.5.8 Confidential (F.R.) / / /2jj^ July 3 1 , CAI MARKET DEVELOPMENTS Capital Markets Section, Division of Research and Statistics, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System, Washington, D. C /c^- 1972 , INDEX Developments in the Corporate and Municipal Bond Markets Capital Market Yields Capital Market Volume Stock Market Mortgage Market SYMBOLS: e Estimate p Preliminary r Revised n o. Not available TABLE 1: Yields, Volume and Reception CORPORATE BOND MARKET YIELDS MOODY'S SEASONED NEW ISSUE 1 Aaa WEEK ENDING: 1972 - July 7 14 21 28 7.38 7.34 7.30 7.35 Aug. 4 n.a. 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.22 YIELDS MOODY'S BOND BUYER SEASONED SEASONED 20 Aaa BOND INDEX WEEK ENDING: GROSS OFFERINGS VOLUME 2 PER CENT SOLD BY END BONDS SCHEDULED OF WEEK WITHIN 28 DAYS 53 686 609 315 45 76 70 77 n. a. n.a. n.a. n.a. 225e n.a. n.a. MUNICIPAL BOND MARKET VOLUME 2 GROSS OFFERINGS PER CENT SOLD BY END OF W E E K 1972 - July 7 14 21 28 5.20 5.25 5.25 5.20 5.43 5.44 5.41 5.35 125 649 377 572 80 83 67 83 Aug. 4 n.a. n.a. 343 n.a. BONDS SCHEDULED WITHIN 28 DAYS 999 784 1,024 619 n.a. 1 Derived by adjusting to a Aaa basis, new issues of publicly-offered corporate bonds with call protection, rated A , Aa, or Aaa by Moody's Investors Service (except serial and convertible issues, offerings of natural gas pipeline and foreign companies, and bonds guaranteed by the Federal Government.) 2 Millions of dollars unless otherwise indicated. Note: Sec footnotes to Table 3 T A B L E 2: Details on Inventories DATE" .OFFERED J 1 AMOUNT (MIL. $) 8.0 175.0 100.0 30.0 50.0 125.0 7/6 7/11 7/18 7/24 7/25 7/26 DATE OFFERED 1 RELEXSED 7/25 7/25 7/19 7/19 CORPORATE BONDS IN SYNDICATE END OF LATEST WEEK RATING AND ORIGINAL YIELD CALL PROTECTION COUPON ISSUER 7 7/8 4 7/8 7.40 7 1/2 7 5/8 5 1/4 Brockton Ed Ford Motor Credit Dow Chen Toledo Edison Conn. Lt & Pwr Western Union A Aa Aa B ESTIMATED PROPORTION SOLD 5 yrs 6 yrs 10 yrs 5 yrs 5 yrs N.C. CORPORATE BONDS RELEASED FROM SYNDICATE DURING LATEST WEEK ORIGINAL INCREASE IN YIELD COUPON ISSUER YIELD AMOUNT +4 7.45 7 3/8 Southern Bell 150.0 6.50 +8 6 1/2 Southern Bell 100.0 INVENTORIES 1 MUNICIPALS IN SYNDICATE BLUE LIST 1 DATE 7.70 4.875 7.40 7.52 7.55 5.25 T 80% 65% RATING AND CALL PROT. Aaa Aaa 50% 85% 90% 40% 5 yrs 5 yrs ESTIMATED PRO65% 65% CORPORATES IN SYNDICATE 1972 - June 30 768 204 67 July 7 14 21 709 721 664 28 715 152 182 186 143 75 134 247 112 N.C. - No call protection. 1 All figures in millions of dollars. Blue List is daily average for week ended Friday . except for latest week which is daily average of three days ended Wednesday. All other figures are as of Friday. TABLE 3: High Grade Bond Yields DATE NEW CORPORATE Aaa1 MOODY'S SEASONED CORPORATE Aaa 2 U.S. GOVERNMENT 20-YEAR CONSTANT MATURITIES 3 BOND BUYER'S SEASONED MUNICIPALS 4 1970 - High Low 9.30 (6/19) 7.68 (12/18) 8.60 (7/3) 7.48 (12/21) 7.55 (5/29) 6.17 (12/18) 7.12 (5/29) 5,33 (12/11) 1971 - High Low 8.23 (5/12) 6.76 (1/29) 7.71 (8/13) 7.06 (2/12) 6.51 (6/18) 5.69 (3/23) 6.23 (6/23) 4.97 (10/21) 1972 - High Low 7.42 (4/21) 6.86 (1/14) 7.36 (4/28) 7.16 (1/21) 6.19 (4/14) 5.96 (1/14) 5.54 (4/13) 4.99 (1/13) 1972 - June 23 30 7.31 7.38 7.23 7.2tr July 7 14 21 28 7.38 7.34 7.30 7.35 7.20 7.20 7.20 7.22 6.00 -*6.03 5.43 5.43 6.04 6.02 6.00 5.43 5.44 5.41 5.99 5.35 New corporate issues, with call protection, adjusted (as described in footnote 1 of Table 1) to a Aaa basis. 2 Weekly average of daily figures. Average term of bonds included is 22-24 years. 3 Weekly average of daily figures. 4 Thursday figures. The average rating of the 20 bonds used in this index ' falls midway between the four top groups as classified by Moody's Investors Service. Note--Highs and lows are for individual series and may be on different dates for different series. 1 6 TABLE 4: Long-term Corporate and State and Local Government Security Offerings and Placements (In millions of dollars) GROSS PROCEEDS CORPORATE PERIOD 1972 1971 1 STATE AND LOCAL 2 1970 1972 1971 1970 January February March 3 ,205 3 ,369 3 ,229 3,115 3,000 6,075 2 ,636 1 ,802 3 ,539 1,776 2,002 2,237 2,732 1,851 2,258 1 ,340 1 ,214 1 ,555 April May June 3 ,184 4,042 3,300e 4,375 3 ,170 3 ,909 3 ,389 2,114 1,986 2,224 1,891 2,167 2,013 1 ,647 996 1 ,085 July August September 4,147 2,532 3,768 2 ,768 2 ,274 3 ,518 1,989 1,903 2,098 1 ,348 1 ,359 1 ,758 October November December 3,387 3,704 3,673 3,,777 4,,182 3,,980 1,728 2,264 2,068 1 ,924 = 1 ,748 2,,190 9,,803 10, 08 le 12,190 11,688 10,447 10,764 7,,977 10,,468 8,,560 11,,939 6,015 6,324 6,841 6,081 5,990 6,060 4,,109 3,,728 4,,465 5,,862 19, 884e 23,844 34,325 45,089 18, 445 27, 005 38, 944 12,339 12,912 18,902 24,962 7, 837 12,302 18, 164 1st 2nd 3rd 4th Quarter Quarter Quarter Quarter 1st half Three quarters Year 1 2 3 ,572 3 ,325e Securities and Exchange Commission estimates of gross proceeds. Investment Bankers Association of America estimates of principal amounts. TABLE 5: New Corporate Security Issues, Type of Issue and Issuer (In millions of dollars) TOTAL Apr. May Junee/ PUBLICLY OFFERED GROSS PROCEEDS BY TYPE OF ISSUE COMMON AND PRIVATELY PFD. ISSUES INCLUDED MFG. PLACED STOCK FOREIGN CONVERTIBLE GROSS PROCEEDS BY TYPE OF ISSUER PUBLIC UTILITY COMMUNICATIONS ISSUERS' 896 2,263 1,053 4,753 3,331 4,164 2,261 117688 10,447 10,764 6,546 4,725 5,135 1,758 1,641 2,439 3,384 4,079 3,193 215 114 133 1,351 652 767 3,130 2,543 2,910 2,651 3,041 9,805 10,080 5,361 4,643 1,593 2,232 2,851 3,205 74 511 368 1,525 1, 30 3,291 1,476 1,197 4,541 3,661 3,271 4,375 2,148 491 760 633 1,332 47 52 255 712 1,206 588 1,055 405 218 1,489 1,897 4,147 2,532 3,768 1,331 1,428 619 416 606 72 34 199 1,966 2,196 687 1,196 293 732 849 1,070 1,622 359 8 582 474 1,146 282 1,210 850 1,271 3,387 3,704 3,673 1,942 2,003 1,190 723 433 1,283 723 1,269 59 62 12 222 662 1,201 395 150 811 980 933 1,217 891 432 269 352 1,360 1,408 1,450 3,205 3,369 3,229 1,767 1,917 1,677 604 412 577 834 1,041 976 59 12 3 195 83 233 392 529 604 533 988 740 752 498 227 1,529 1,354 1,658 3,184 3,571 3,JZ5 1,622 700 732 861 1,144 15 79 92 226 50 572 758 600 1,211 735 1,345 177 390 630 1,222 2,282 1,696 1,325 1 800 1,200 160 2,202 588 Other issuers are extractive, railroad and other transportation, real estate and finance, and commercial and other. Source: Securities and Exchange Commission. Quarterly supplements are available. 1,689 750 TABLE 6: Large Long-term Public Security Issues for New Capital (Other than U.S. Treasury) 1 ISSUER Corporate Michigan Consol Gas Indiana Mtge & Realty Inv. TYPE 2 AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF \ DOLLARS) 1st mtge Bene. Int South Carolina Elect & Gas Cum Pref Ford Motor Credit Co Conv deb Commercial Credit Co Debs Northern 111 Gas 1st mtg Williams Cos Cm Pa Pwr & Lt Cum Pref Continental Airlines ! Cm Central Maine Pwr 1st mtg Pacific Gas & Elec Co 1st mtg Beneficial Corp Notes Beneficial Corp Debs Public Svc E & G Co. Cm (rts) New England Pwr Co 1st mtg Heinz, H. J. Co Bonds Dart Industries Conv deb Illinois Power Co. Cum pref Dow Chemical Bonds Household Finance Corp Bonds U.S. National Bank of Oreg Debs Provident Nat'1 Bank Debs Mid-Atlantic Banks, Inc. Bonds Hanover Square Realty Investors Conv debs Central Illinois Light Cum pref Barnett-Winston Inv. Tr. Bene int Southern Bell Tele Notes Southern Bell Tele Debs Textron Inc. Debs American Internat'l Group Inc. Conv debs MATURITY 35.0 20.0 1997 15.0 175.0 100.0 40.0 39.4 35.0 27.0 25.0 125.0 25.0 75.0 94.3 25.0 50.0 55.0 35.0 100.0 100.0 25.0 21.0 20.0 12.5 17.0 30.0 100.0 150.0 50.0 30.0 MM -- 1998 1979 1997 COUPON RATE OR NET INTEREST COST 7 5/8 -- 7.70 4 7/8 6 7/8 7 5/8 OFFERING YIELD 7.62 -- 7.70 4.875 6.97 7.60 «» — *> — —— mm — 8.00 8.00 •» •• —M 1997 2004 1979 2002 MOODY'S RATING A -- A —— Aa —— __ — *. 7.70 7.625 6.75 7.55 A Aa Aa 7.55 7.25 4.00 7.45 7.40 7.50 6.92 7.75 7.00 7.25 7.50 Aa Aa —— 7 5/8 7 1/4 4.00 7.56 7.40 7 1/2 6 7/8 7 3/4 6 7/8 7 1/4 7.56 1979 2010 1997 1997 6 1/2 7 3/8 7.50 4.00 6.50 7.45 7.50 4.00 —— 2002 1997 1997 —— 2002 1995 1980 1997 1980 1992 7.70 7 5/8 6 3/4 7 1/2 »» •» * mm Aa A -* » —— —— Aa —* Aaa Aaa A TABLE 6: Large Long-term Public Security Issues for New Capital (Other than U.S. Treasury) 1 ISSUER Corporate Cont. Boston Edison Co Jim Walter Investors Cleveland Elect Illuminating Northern States Pwr Toledo Edison Ecodyne Corp Institutional IgAzestors Trust Metropolitan Edison Co Toledo Edison Connecticut Lt & Pwr Western Union Corp Central Soya Public Svc of Colorado Republic Financial Svcs Diamontfhead corp. TYPE 2 AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) Com stk (rts) 34.4 Bene Int. 18.0 pref 45.0 Com stk (rts) 50.0 Cum pref 15.0 Com stk 15.0 Bene Int. 18.0 Cum pref 25.0 1st mtge 30.0 1st mtge 50.0 Conv deb 125.0 )ebs 30.0 lat mtge 50.0 Debs 15.0 Debs 15.0 MATURITY COUPON RATE OR NET INTEREST COST OFFERING YIELD MOODY'S RATING —— —— 7.56 — -» — 7.76 7.47 __ 7.65 • — — -mm 2002 2002 1997 1977 2002 1997 1982 __ 8.32 7 1/2 7 1/2 5 1/4 7 1/2 7 1/2 8.20 10.00 __ 8.16 7.52 7.55 5.25 7.52 7.52 8.20 10.00 Aa Aa B A Aa TABLE 6: Large Long-term Public Security Issues for New Capital (continued) (Other than U.S. Treasury) 1 1 ISSUER State and Local TYPE 2 New Jersey G.O. Wayne Co., Mich Rev. Wisconsin G.O. Florida State Bd of Education Rev. Oklahoma City, Okla G.O. Oregon, State of G.O. Louisiana G.O. New Vnrk, N.Y. G.O. Middlesex Co., Mass G.O. Rochester, N. Y. G.O. Texas G.O. Missouri Rev. Ohio, State of G.O. Virginia Pub. Sch Auth G.O. Omaha-Douglas Pub. Bldg. Com. Neb, Rev. Maine, State of Rev. Hawaii G.O. Dallas, Texas Rev. Boston Metro. Dist., Mass G.O. Ohio, State of Rev. Maryland Volusia Co-Wide S/D, Deland, Fla Illinois Lakeland, Fla Memphis, Tenn AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 75.0 14.7 43.0 26.0 13.4 75.0 54.0 267.2 10.0 17.5 20.0 20.0 75.0 20.0 25.0 13.5 60.1 15.2 14.9 12.5 MATURITY July 3 thru July 2&. 1972 COUPON RATE OR MOODY'S OFFERNET INTERING RATING EST COST YIELD \ 1973-2002 *- G.O. 93.5 1973-1992 1973-2002 1975-1992 1981-1988 1973-1992 1974-2013 1973-1992 1973-1983 1973-1995 1973-1994 1973-1997 1974-1993 1975-1997 1973-1992 1975-2007 1973-1992 1973-1992 1974-1978 &1997 1975-1987 G.O. G.O. Rev. G.O. 10.0 100.0 28.0 16.0 1974-1992 1973-1997 1975-1996 1975-1999 3.75-5.15 • - 4.79 5.44 4.25 4.87 4.99 6.17 — -- — «— 4.87 5.23 4.68 5.03 4.96 -- -- 2.90-5.20 3.00-5.50 3.00-4.75 4.30-5.15 3.00-5.30 4.25-6.80 3.00-5.25 2.90-4.45 2.90-5.10 2.90-5.00 3.00-3.50 3.15-5.15 3.50-5.70 2.90-5.70 3.60-5.80 2.90-5.15 3.00-5.30 A-l Aa Aa A Aa A-l Baa-1 Aa Aaa Aaa Aaa A Aa ' Aa Aaa A Aa Aa 4.53 3.40-4.90 Aaa 5.23 4.77 5.04 5.11 3.40-5.75 2.80-5.70 3.50-5.55 3.35-5.30 Baa Aaa Aa -- T A B L E t>: Large Long-term Public Security Issues for New Capital (continued) (Other than U.S. Treasury) 1 Rev. Rev. AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 150.0 60.0 Debs 400.0 ! ISSUER State and Local New York State Urban Dev. Corp Puerto Rico Highway Auth. TYPE 2 MATURITY 3 thru July 28. 1972 COUPON | RATE OR OFFERMOODY'S NET INTER- | INC, RATING EST COST YIELD ... 2012 5.88 3.40-5.80 6.20 6.20 A Other Export Import Bank 1977 Rights offering. Includes corporate and other security offetlhgs of $15 million and over; State and local security offerings of $10 million and over. In case of State and local government securities, G.O. denotes general obligation; Kev\ -Ut., revenue obligations secured only by Income from public utilities; Rev.-Q.-Ut., revenue bonds secured only by income from quasi-utilities; Rev.-S.T., revenue bonds secured by revenue from specific taxes only; Rev.-Rent., revenue bonds secured solely by lease payments. Includes foreign government and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development issues and non-guaranteed issues by Federal Agpncics. -- T A B L E 7: Forthcoming Large Long-term Public Security Offerings for New Capital (Other than U.S. Treasury) 1 ' ISSUER Ohio Edison Rochester Gas & Elect BankAmerica, Inc. * Delmarva Pwr & Lt. •Chrysler Financial Corp South Central Bell Tele Co. B. F . Goodrich Niagara Mohawk Pwr Niagara Mohawk Pwr So California Edison Jersey Central Pwr & Lt. GTE of Fla. Orange & Rockland Utilities Dayton Pwr & Lt. Potomac Elect Pwr Long Island Lighting *Kentucky Power *GMAC *United Tele Co of Ohio Wisconsin Public Svc Gen'l Tele of Southeast Medical M t g e Inv. Fidelco Growth Investments TYPE 1st mtge Com (rts) Debs Bonds Debs Bonds Bonds Bonds Pref stk Bonds Bonds Bonds Pref stk Com stk Cm Bonds Bonds Debs 1st mtge Com stk 1st mtge Debs Conv debs As of July 28, 1972 AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) 60 .0 17 .0 100 .0 30 .0 100 .0 125 .0 75 .0 80..0 40,.0 125..0 25..0 50.,0 15.,0 30. 0 35. 0/40.0 50. 0 45. 0 200. 0 30. 0 15. 0 25. 0 50. 0 25. 0 APPROXIMATE DATE OF OFFERING Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug.. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. Aug. INDEF INDEF INDEF 1 2 3 3 7 8 9 15 15 16 16 17 22 23 24 28 29 30 30 30 13 TABLE 7: Forthcoming Large Long-term Public Security Offerings for New Capital (Other than U.S. Treasury)1 (continued) . , ISSUER State and Local Hamden, Conn. Florida State Bd of Ed Mississippi New Jersey Turnpike Auth Los Angeles DWAP Connecticut Health & Ed, Facll. Auth Norwalk, Conn. New York State Dormitory Auth California Dept of Wtr Res. •Tennessee, State of *Grant Hospital of Chicago, 111 *Nev York city Housing Dev Corp Glendale, Calif.•Suffolk Co., N.Y. Wtr Auth *New York State Housing Finance Agency Lucas Co., Ohio Los Angeles DWAP *0hio TYPE AMOUNT (MILLIONS OF DOLLARS) APPROXIMATE DATE OF OFFERING G.O. Rev. G.O. Rev ref Rev. 13.6 14.0 16.7 155.0 15.0 August August August August August 1 1 1 1 2 G.O. G.O. Rev. Rev. G.O. 1st etg rev Rev. G.O. Rev. 30.0 10.3 38.0 139.2 60.0 , 26.5 133.0 15.1 10.0 August August August August August August August August August 2 3 8 8 9 9 10 22 22 Rev, Rev. Rev. G.O. 168.6 18.5 40.0 100.0 August 23 Septsebar October 11 November 16 Includes corporate and other issues of $15 million and over; State and iocel Government issues of $10 million and over. Includes foreign government and International Bank for Reconstruction and Development issues and non-guaranteed*issues of Federal Agencies. Table 8 14 STOCK PRICES AND VOLUME TRADING VOLUME 2 ' STOCK PRICES1DATE NYSE INDEX 3 - D J . INDUSTRIALS AMEX * NYSE AMEX 1970 - High Low 52.36 (1/5) 842.00(12/29) 37.69 (5/26) 631.16 (5/26) 27.02 (1/8) 19.36 (5/27) 18.5 (12/4 7.8 (8/14) 7.1 (1/2) 1.8 (8/14) 1971 - High Low 57.76 (4/28) 950.82 (4/28) 797.97(11/23) 48.73 (1/4) 26.68 (4/28) 22.72 (1/4) 22.1 (2/12) 11.0 (9/17) 6.7 (2/5) 2.7 (8/13) 1972 - High Low 61.38 (5/26) 971.25 (5/26) 56.23 (1/3) 889.30 (1/3) 28.53 (4/14) 25.61 (1/3) 21.2 (3/24) 13.8 (7/7) 7.4 (3/10) 3.9 (6/16) 1972 - June 2 9 16 23 30 60.95 59.35 60.04 59.89 59.31 961.39 934.45 945.06 944.69 929.03 27.85 27.44 27.50 27.37 27.24 15.3 14.3 15.5 13.9 13.9 4.0 4.3 3.9 3.6 3.7 July 7 14 60.15 59.02 938.06 922.26 27.38 26.95 13.8 13.9 3.2 3.5 21 28 58.84 920.45 26.78 15.4 3.3 59.13 926.70 26.74 15.3 3.4 NOTES: 1. Figures other than highs and lows are Fridays only. Highs and lows are for the year and are not necessarily for Fridays. 2. NYSE is the New York Stock Exchange; AMEX is the American Stock Exchange. Volume figures are daily averaged for the entire week, (millions of shares). Trading is normally conducted for 5-1/2 hours per day and 5 days per week, or 27-1/2 hours per week. In recent years, however abbreviated trading to the extent, and over the time periods, shown below: Hours/ Days/ Hovs/ From Through: Day Week eek January 3, 19*9 July 7, 1969 January 2, 1970 July 3, 1969 December 31, 1969 May 1, 1970 3. 12/31/65 = 50 4. Average dollar value of shares listed. 4 4-1/2 5 5 5 5 20 22-1/2 25 15 TABLE 9: Security Credit END OF PERIOE CREDIT EXTENDED TO MARGIN CUSTOMERS BY: BROKERS' | BANKS 2 | TOTAL CUSTOMERS 1 NET DEBIT BALANCES NET CREDIT CUSTOMERS* NET EXTENDED BY FREE CREDIT BROKERS AND DEALERS 3 BALANCES Outstanding: 1971 - May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 4,620 4,720 4,790 4,850 4,930 4,950 4,910 5,400 2,340 2,390 2,420 2,430 2,430 2,410 2,400 2,440 6,960 7,110 7,210 7,280 7,360 7,360 7,310 7,840 (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) 2,550 2,440 2,210 2,200 2,100 2,160 2,170 2,220 (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) 1972 - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May 5,700 6,180 6,620 7,010 7,200 2,490 2,510 2,520 2,530 2,560 8,190 8,690 9,140 9,540 9,760 (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) 2,488 2,542 2,512 2,469 2,330 (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) 1972 - May June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 90 100 70 60 80 20 -40 490 -— 50 30 10 90 150 100 70 80 -20 -10 40 -50 530 1972 - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May 300 480 440 390 190 50 20 10 10 30 350 500 450 400 220 Change in Outstanding: -- —— ——W --— —— —— —— — —— —— -— -110 110 230 -10 100 60 10 50 268 54 -30 -53 -129 -—— —— —— —1 — —— —— __ —— *— -- Margin debt, as reported by the New York Stock Exchange. Although margin debt until March 1968 included loans secured by U.S. governments, the amount of such loans included is thought to have been small. "Bank loans to others than brokers and dealers for purchasing or carrying securities other than U.S. governments." The difference between customers' net debit balances and customers' net free credit balances, this figure represents the net credit extended by brokers and dealers to the nonfinancial public. NOTE: With the exception of bank loan data, figures are supplied by the New York Stock Exchange and are end of month data. Bank loans are for weekly reporting large commercial banks. Broker data includes loans for regulated securities; bank data includes loans for the purpose of purchasing or carrying any security, whether regulated or not. TABLE 10: Savings Flows at Nonbank Depositary Intermediaries ($ millions) DATE MUTUAL SAVINGS BANKS NET REGULAR DEPOSITS 3 NEW ANNUAL MONEY 2 GROWTH NET RATE 1 FLOW SAVINGS & LOAN ASSOCIATIONS NET SHARE CAPITAL NEW ANNUAL MONEY2 GROWTH NET 1 FLOW RATE N o t Seasonally Adjusted -1,003 3.1 4,068 5,285 8.1 10,965 2 0,652 19.4 28,244 2 549 4 517 9,,623 4.0 6.3 13.5 -763 936 5,678 1971 - April May June 801 819 996 •* 2,211 2,160 3,105 -w — 651 710 277 1972 - April May June e/ 464 669 950 280 533 1,774 2,209 3,745 —— —— 1969 1970 1971 — -— — — TOTAL NET DEPOSITS NEW .ANNUAL | NET MONEY 2 GROWTH 1 RATE I FLOW 6,617 15,482 37,867 3.4 7.7 17.5 - 1 , 766 6,,231 26,,330 2,092 2,081 1,275 3,012 2,979 4,101 -- 2,,743 2,,791 1.,552 1;668 2,113 1,500 2,238 2,878 4,695 -- — — 1 ,948 2 ,646 n •a* Seasonally Adju sted 1972 - January February March April May e/ June e j 948 861 1 ,089 974 576 850 14.1 12.6 15.8 14.0 8.2 12.0 — -—— — -- 4,118 2,935 3,091 2,704 1,814 2,856 28.4 19.9 20.5 17.6 11.7 16.2 -— — -— 5,066 3,816 4,180 3,678 2,390 3,706 23.9 17.6 19.0 16.5 10.6 16.2 -- Annual growth rate for monthly data is the annualized monthly percentage increase in deposits. Net New Money is new deposits net of both withdrawals and interest. Data for S&Ls are for insured associations only, which represent 967. of industry total resources. Regular deposits at mutual savings banks exclude items such as Christmas club and certain escrow accounts, which represent a very small part of total deposits. SOURCE: National Association of Mutual Savings Banks and Federal Home Loan Bank Board. TABLE 11: Mortgage Commitments at Selected Thrift Institutions TOTAL OUTSTANDING COMMITMENTS ALL MUTUAL SAVINGS & SAVINGS LOAN BANKS (N.Y. STATE) ASSOCIATIONS 1 NET CHANGE ALL SAVINGS & LOAN ASSOCIATIONS MUTUAL SAVINGS BANKS (N.Y. STATE) (Billions of Dollars, Set onally Adjusted) 12.6 13.7 14.5 15.9 16.2 16.3 16.4 16.3 16.6 16.6 17.0 18.3 19.5 20.5 21.7 10.1 11.0 11.6 13.1 13.2 13.2 13.1 13.2 13.1 2.5 2.7 3.0 3.1 3.1 3.1 3.2 3.3 3.4 3.6 11:1 U 12.8 15.2 16.0 17.1 4.3 4.5 4.6 1.28 1.11 1.15 .90 1.31 .30 .90 .56 .12 .08 .02 .20 .09 1.26 .29 .14 -.07 -.05 .08 -.06 .17 .25 .34 .05 .01 .01 .14 .07 .12 .15 3 I: 3°4 1.19 .99 1.24 .97 .79 1.15 .22 .20 .09 Baaed on data from Federal Home Loan Bank Board and Savings Banks Associations of New York State. Data for savings banks and S&L's Include a minor amount of nonresidential commitments. S&L commitments include loans in process. New changes are derived directly from unrounded outstandings levels as reported and after seasonal adjustment by Federal Reserve. Subtotals may not add to totals because of rounding. 18 TABLE 12: Net Change in Mortgage Holdings 1 FINANCIAL INSTITUTIONS MUTUAL SAVINGS & SAVINGS LOAN BANKS ASSOC. TOTAL INCLUDING FNMA-GNMA TOTAL COMMERCIAL BANKS 23,781 24,074 21,736 41,647 21,273 19,699 16,827 39,259 6,677 5,404 2,462 9,940 1972 - Mar. Apr. May June 4,012 4,006 4,758 n.a. 3,929 4,063 4,474 n. a. 1,000 1,100 1,300 1,500 1171 - Apr. May June July Aug.r/ Sept. ry Oct. r/ Nov.r/ Dec.r/ 3,057 3,300 4,136 4,186 4,295 4,021 3,747 3,745 4,323 3,113 3,260 3,935 3,878 3,783 3,555 3,357 3,443 4,081 685 864 1,219 977 1,001 999 974 843 824 1972 - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June 3,123 3,315 4,208 4,057 4,714 2,974 3,065 4,097 4,058 4,339 888 754 1,061 1,084 1,261 1,414 DATE LIFE INSURANCE COMPANIES FNMA-GNMA 2,459 2,052 2,348 1,221 2,508 4,375 4,909 2,388 Not Seasonally Adlusted 1968 1969 1970 1971 2,787 2,682 1,845 3,938 430 352 454 n.a. 9,350 9,561 10,172 24,160 2,531 2,566 2,720 3,433 -32 45 24 n.a. 83 -57 284 45 Seasonally Adlusted 1 - 293 318 386 374 400 306 329 465 522 2,082 2,036 2,309 2,455 2,252 2,122 1,977 2,058 2,357 53 42 21 72 130 128 77 77 378 -56 40 201 308 512 466 390 302 242 272 296 486 390 455 1,813 2,042 2,571 2,506 2,571 3,047 1 -27 -21 78 52 149 250 111 -1 375 114 Monthly data for commercial banks based on Federal Reserve estimates benchmarked to Call Report data on real estate loans outstanding as available. Other data derived from mortgage debt outstanding as reported separately by National Assn. of Mutual Savings Banks, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Institute of Life Insurance and, through August 1968, the Federal National Mortgage Association, and thereafter by FNMA and the Government National Mortgage Association. Data for mutual savings banks and for Life Insurance companies may differ somewhat from those derived from regular quarterly series because of minor conceptual differences for which adjustments are not made in the monthly series. Altogether, these groups accounted for 87 per cent of the net increase estimated for all holders in 1 9 7 1 . 19 TABLE 13: Net Increases in Mortgage Debt Outstanding Billions of dollars, SAAR 1- to 4FAMILY MULTIFAMILY COMMERCIAL MULTI-AND COMMERCIAL FARM 7.0 10.6 15.1 15.9 3.3 3.4 3.8 3.8 3.9 5.0 4.9 4.7 7.2 8.4 8.8 8.5 1.8 1.8 2.5 2.8 19.4 18.2 17.4 20.2 16.2 15.0 13.9 16.3 3.2 3.2 3.5 3.9 6.4 6.0 6.6 9.5 9.2 10.1 11.2 2.3 2.2 31.8 29.1 26.2 24.9 23.6 21.5 19.0 18.2 19.2 16.8 14.4 13.0 4.4 4.7 4.7 5.3 6.1 5.4 5.4 5.2 10.5 10.1 10.0 1970 - I II III IV- 20.6 22.9 29.1 31.3 14.2 16.9 21.8 22.5 9.1 11.5 15.5 16.0/ 5.1 5.4 6.3 6.5 4.8 2.2 2.2 1.7 1.4 1.3 1.5 2.1 2.2 - I IIm 37.1 47.8 53.6 18.5 26.4 3U4 TOTAL RESIDENTIAL 3 - I II III IV 16.0 20.8 26.3 27.2 10.3 14.0 18.9 19.7 - I II III IV 28.1 26:4 25.8 29.4 - I II III IV v QUARTER . 26.6 rr. 53.4 36.1 40.1 40.1 - ie lie 56.7 57.7 41.5 42.8 ,, 7.3 10.5 1.8 1.9 5.2 6.7 9.9 9.9 11.5 .13.2 8.1 9.7 8^3 9.4 16.3, 19.1 8.7 8.7 11*2 10.8 Ik 9 31.4 ii.5 2.2 2,3 2*3 2.5 32.2 33.4 9.3 9.4 13.0 12.8 22.2 22.3 2.1 4.6 2.2 Derived from 3ita on "mortgage debt outstanding from Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation, Federal Home Loan Bank Board, Institute of Life Insurance, National Association of Mutual Savings Banks, Departments of Commerce and Agriculture, Federal National Mortgage Association, Federal Housing Administration, Veterans Administration and Comptroller of the Currency. Separation of nonfarm mortgage debt by type of property, where not available, and interpolations and extrapolations, where required, estimated mainly by Federal Reserve. May differ somewhat from related flow of funds series mainly because of more aggregative type of seasonal adjustment. Residential mortgage debt includes nonfarm only and is sum of 1-to 4 - family and multifamily mortgage debt combined. TABLE 14: FNMA Biweekly "Auction" Results WEEK ENDED Mar. Apr. May June July IMPLICIT YIELD 2 (per cent) COMMITMENTS IN $ MILLIONS ACCEPTED 1 -YEARN 901-YEAR 1 906TOTAL 6TOTAL & OVER M0NTH & OVER DAY OFFERED MONTH DAY —— -- -- -- 178.5 176.3 —— -- 336.4 188.2 76.4 —— -- -- —— -- — -- 6 20 86.9 202.9 50.6 86.2 50.6 86.2 3 17 258.8 347.4 178.5 176.3 1 15 30 364.9 266.3 133.4 336.4 188.2 76.4 12 26 83.5 97.8 48.1 76.6 48.1 76.6 10 134.6 92.1 92.1 ---- 7.56 7.54 -— -- 7.56 7.60 —— -- 7.63 7.63 7.62 -- -- -- -- 7.62 7,62 —— —— -- -- -- — 7.62 Note: Under the FNMA auction system, approved sellers of Governmentunderwritten mortgages bid for FNMA forward purchase commitments . Average secondary market yield after allowance for commitment fee and required purchase and holding of FHMA stock, assuming prepayment of 15 years for 30-year Government-underwritten mortgagee. Yields shown are gross, before deduction of 38 basis points fee paid by investors to servicers. 21 TABLE 15: Private Housing Starts arid Permits STARTS UNADJUSTED TYP E OF FINANCING FHA VA OTHER BUILDING PERMITS (SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE)2 SEASONALLY ADJUSTED ANNUAL RATE TOTAL 1-FAMILY 2 OR MORE TOTAL - June July August September October November December 2,008 2,091 2,219 2,029 2,038 2,228 2,457 1,150 1,162 1,198 1,172 1,155 1,242 1,347 858 929 1,021 857 882 985 1,110 193.8 194.3 204.5 173.8 179.7 176.4 152.1 46.1 42.9 45.8 48.3 38.5 47.2 85.4 9.3 9.2 9.4 8.7' 8.1 9.1 7.4 138.4 141.1 147.0 116,8 133.1 120.1 59.3 1,849 2,052 2,006 1,900 2,173 1,952 2,292 - January February March April r/ Hay £ / June 2,487 2,682 2,369 2,109 2,331 2,298 1,415 1,325 1,302 1,167 1,332 1,288 1,071 1,357 1,067 942 999 1,010 150.9 J 53.6 205.8 213.2 226,2 223.4 37.4 27.8 37.7 29.1 7.51 8.0i 10.5 8.5 9.4 106.0 117.8 155.7 172.9 180.3 2,105 2,078 1,928 1,928 1,958 2,078 DATE 1 2 34 A Total starts are Census estimates including farm for both permit-issuing and now-issuing areas. A dwelling unit is started when excavation begins; all units in an apartment structure are considered started at that time. FHA and VA starts are units started under commitments by these agencies to insure or guarantee the mortgages. As reported by FHA and VA, a unit is started when a field office receives the first compliance inspection report, which is made before footings are poured in some cases but normally after the foundations have been completed. Other starts are derived as a residual, although total and FHA and VA starts are not strictly comparable in concept or timing; other starts include both units financed by conventional mortgages and units without mortgages. Building permits before January 1963 are Census estimates for about 10,000 areas identified as having a local building permit system in 1959. Estimates beginning j January 1963 are for approximately 12,000 and beginning January 1967 13,000, or all known permit-issuing places. Unlike starts, seasonally adjusted building permits reflect direct adjustment for differences in the number of working days per month, as well as other differences in timing and coverage. 22 ' TABLE 16: Mortgage and Bond Yields FHA MORTGAGES DATE 30-year CONVENTIONAL MORTGAGES 3 SPREAD BETWEEN YIELDS ON CONV. & FHA MORTGAGES 5 1 NEW Aaa CORPORATE BONDS 4 SPREAD BETWEEN YIELDS ON NEW CORPORATE BONDS AND FHA MORTGAGES 6 1970 - High Low 9.29 8.40 8.60 8.30 -.10 -.74 9.11 7.80 .99 .01 1971 - High Low 7.97 7.32 7.95 7.55 .28 -.19 8.01 7.24 .50 -.36 1971 - Nov. Dec. 7.62 7.59 7.75 7.70 .13 .11 7.19 7.09 .43 .50 1972 - Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. 7.49 7.46 7.45 7.50 7.53 7.60 7.60 7.55 7.60 7.60 .11 .14 .10 .10 .07 7.07 7.16 7.22 7.31 7.21 .42 .30 .33 .19 .39 7.54 7.60 .06 7.30 .30 May June 1 2 3 4 5 6 Neither mortgage nor bond yields include allowance for servicing costs which are much higher for mortgages than for bonds. Generally, bonds pay interest semiannually; mortgages, monthly. Mortgage yields, if computed as equivalent to a semi-annual interest investment, would be slightly higher than given in the table. Based on FHA-field-office opinions about average bid prices in the private secondary market for new-home mortgages for immediate delivery. Data shown are for 30-year mortgages with minimum downpayments, and weighted by probable volume of transactions. Yields computed by FHA, assuming prepayment period of 15 years for 30-year mortgages. Based on FHA-field-office opinion on typical contract interest rates (rounded) on conventional first mortgages prevailing in the market areas of insuring offices. See note for Table 1. Yield spread equals conventional mortgage rate less FHA secondary market yield. Yield spread equals FHA secondary market yield less new Aaa corporate bond yield. 23 TABLE 17: Conventional Mortgage Terms DATE 1 NEW HOMES CON- FEES & TRACT CHARGES EFFEC- MATURITY RATE (PER (YEARS) TIVE (PER CENT) RATE CENT) 2 3 LOAN/ PRICE LOAN RATIO AMT. (PER ($000) CENT) 4 7.36 7.38 7.51 7.60 7.67 7.68 7.65 7.62 0.71 0.74 0.90 0.84 0.97 0.97 0.87 0.93 7.47 7.50 7.66 7.74 7.83 7.84 7.79 7.77 26.1 26.3 26.3 26.2 25.8 26.4 26.7 26.6 74.0 73.7 74.5 73.9 75.3 75.5 75.4 74.5 26.7 27.2 27.1 26.5 25.9 26.3 27.3 26.5 7.33 7.38 7.50 7.58 7.63 7.62 7.56 7.51 0,.71 0,.74 0,.75 0,.76 0..78 0,.79 0.,79 0.,78 7.45 7.50 7.63 7.71 7.76 7.75 7.69 7.64 24.0 24.3 24.2 24.5 24.2 24.1 24.6 24.6 73.2 73.9 74.5 74.2 74.5 74.2 74.6 74.6 23.3 28.3 23.2 23.5 22.5 22.9 23.2 23.9 7.62 7.45 7.38 7.38 7.39 0.95 1.02 0.84 0.83 0.84 7.78 7.61 7.52 7.51 7.53 26.5 27.0 27.2 27.2 27.2 75.0 76.5 76.2 76.0 76.1 27.6 27.8 28.2 28.5 28.4 7.45 7.35 7.31 7.30 7; 34 0. 82 0. 79 0. 77 0. 78 0. 73 7.58 7.48 7.44 7.42 7.46 24.7 25.4 25.1 25.2 25.1 74.7 75.8 75.6 75.3 75.3 24.1 24.8 24.4 24.9 24.4 EXISTING HOMES CON- FEES & LOAN/ TRACT CHARGES EFFEC- MATU- PRICE (PER RATE TIVE RITY RATIO (PER CENT) RATE (YEARS) (PER CENT) CENT) 2 3 LOAN AMT. ($000 4 1971 Hay June July Aug. Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. 1972 Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr.r/ May £ / 1 |' '4 /• Compiled by Federal Home Loan Bank Board in cooperation with Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation. Data are weighted averages based on probability sample survey of characteristics of conventional first mortgages originated by major institutional lender groups (including mortgage companies) for purchase of single family homes. Data exelude loans for refinancing, reconditioning or modernization; construction loans to home-builders; and permanent loans which are coupled with construction loans to ownerbuilders. Related series on conventional mortgage rates only, based on unweighted opinions of field-office directors of the Federal Housing Administration, are available somewhat sooner than the results of the FHLBB-FDIC survey, and are included-in the case of new home mortgage rates--in Table 16. 2 Fees and charges--expressed as a percentage of the principal mortgage amount—include loan commissions, fees, discounts, and other charges which provide added income to the lender and are paid by the borrower. They exclude any closing costs related solely to transfer of property ownership. 3 Includes fees & charges amortized over a 10 year period in addition to the contract interest rate. 4 Derived by FRB.
@FedFRASER